塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2018 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Surabhi Varshney. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Surabhi Varshney。請繼續。

Thank you, Steven. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，史蒂文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2018 年第一季財報電話會議。

My name is Surabhi Varshney, Vice President, Investor Relations. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Sutton, Chief Operating Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

我叫 Surabhi Varshney，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起的有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席營運官斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton) 和首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson)。

Celanese Corporation's first quarter 2018 earnings release was distributed via Business Wire yesterday after market close. Slides and prepared remarks for the quarter were also posted on our website, www.celanese.com, in the Investor Relations section.

塞拉尼斯公司 2018 年第一季財報於昨日收盤後透過 Business Wire 發布。本季的幻燈片和準備好的發言稿也發佈在我們的網站 www.celanese.com 的投資者關係部分。

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed today and included in our presentation may include forward-looking statements concerning, for example, our future objectives and plans. Please note the cautionary language contained in the posted slides.

提醒一下，今天討論並包含在我們簡報中的一些事項可能包括前瞻性陳述，例如有關我們未來的目標和計劃。請注意所張貼幻燈片中的警告性語言。

Also, some of the matters discussed and presented include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations of these measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures are included with the press release and on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financial Information.

此外，討論和提出的一些事項還包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。這些指標的解釋以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳均包含在新聞稿中以及我們網站的「財務資訊」下的「投資者關係」部分。

The earnings release and non-GAAP reconciliations have been submitted to the SEC on a Form 8-K.

收益報告和非公認會計準則對帳單已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

The slides and prepared comments have also been submitted to the SEC on a separate Form 8-K.

幻燈片和準備好的評論也已透過單獨的 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

This morning, we'll begin with introductory remarks from Mark Rohr and then open up for your questions.

今天上午，我們將首先由馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr) 致開幕詞，然後回答大家的提問。

I'd like to turn the call over to Mark now.

我現在想把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Surabhi, and welcome, everyone, listening in today. I'll begin with just a few highlights before opening the call for your questions.

謝謝，蘇拉比，歡迎大家今天的收聽。在開始回答大家的提問之前，我先介紹幾個重點。

For the quarter, net sales rose 26% year-over-year and 16% sequentially to $1.85 billion. With strong pricing and volume support, we are pleased to announce GAAP earnings of $2.68 per share and adjusted earnings of $2.79 per share.

本季淨銷售額年增 26%，季增 16%，達到 18.5 億美元。在強勁的定價和銷售支持下，我們很高興地宣布每股 GAAP 收益為 2.68 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.79 美元。

Engineered Materials, Acetate Tow and the Acetyl Chain as well as our affiliates all reported strong results, continuing the trend that's been underway for some time. Adjusted EBIT margins expanded by 300 basis points, achieving record operating EBITDA of $553 million and EBIT margin -- EBITDA margins of 30%.

工程材料、醋酸絲束、乙醯基鏈以及我們的附屬公司都報告了強勁的業績，延續了一段時間以來的趨勢。調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率擴大了 300 個基點，實現了創紀錄的 5.53 億美元營業息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率 - 息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率達到 30%。

Engineered Materials reported net sales of $665 million, supporting record segment income of $182 million driven by projects, acquisitions and higher sales in Asia. Volume increased 19% year-over-year and adjusted EBIT margins for Engineered Materials came in at 27%. Affiliate earnings grew 26% year-over-year to $54 million. We saw strong growth in Asia and we commercialized over 740 new projects this quarter.

工程材料業務淨銷售額達 6.65 億美元，得益於專案、收購和亞洲銷售額的成長，分部收入達到創紀錄的 1.82 億美元。工程材料銷量較去年同期成長 19%，調整後息稅前利潤率達 27%。聯營公司營收年增 26% 至 5,400 萬美元。我們在亞洲看到了強勁的成長，本季我們商業化了超過 740 個新項目。

The Acetate Tow segment income in the first quarter was $78 million, declining a bit year-over-year as unique carryovers in the first quarter of 2017 did not repeat themselves.

第一季醋酸纖維絲束部門營收為 7,800 萬美元，年比略有下降，因為 2017 年第一季的獨特結轉並未重演。

The Acetyl Chain grew 32% year-over-year and 18% sequentially to report net sales of $1 billion for the quarter and record income of $253 million. Modest but consistent demand growth and tight regional supply dynamics helped lift pricing and generate the significant growth in earnings. Margins expanded to 24%. That's more than 400 basis points sequentially with strong asset and derivative pricing in all markets.

乙醯基鏈業務年增 32%，季增 18%，本季淨銷售額達 10 億美元，營收創歷史新高，達 2.53 億美元。溫和但持續的需求成長和緊張的區域供應動態幫助提升了價格並帶來了盈利的顯著增長。利潤率擴大至24%。這比上一季增加了 400 多個基點，所有市場的資產和衍生性商品定價都表現強勁。

For the rest of this year, we expect Engineered Materials to build on its success with more than 3,000 project wins with additional bolt-on acquisitions and continued growth in Asia. Earnings in Acetate Tow should step down slightly next quarter and remain at that level through the year. Consistent demand growth and business fundamentals through the Acetyl Chain should support earnings growth through '19 and '20. Given the strong performance in all these businesses, we increased our expected guidance and adjusted earnings per share to the 20% to 25% range over 2017.

在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計工程材料部門將在其成功的基礎上再接再厲，贏得超過 3,000 個項目，並進行額外的額外收購，在亞洲繼續實現成長。醋酸絲束的收益將在下個季度略有下降，並全年保持在該水平。乙醯基鏈的持續需求成長和業務基本面應能支援 2019 年和 2020 年的獲利成長。鑑於所有這些業務的強勁表現，我們提高了預期指引，並將每股盈餘調整至 2017 年的 20% 至 25% 左右。

With that, I'll now turn it back to Surabhi.

好了，現在我把話題轉回 Surabhi 身上。

Thank you, Mark. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，馬克。（操作員指示）

Steven, please open the line to Q&A now.

史蒂文，請現在開通問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess, first of all, on the acquisition contribution to Engineered Materials, I noticed that you didn't break it out specifically as a out -- just embedded in the volumes. And I think it was a few quarters ago you were talking about -- you spoke about how you expect acquisitions to scale up over time because it gave you multiple shots on goal. Can you give us a sense for how much extra capacity you have in Engineered Materials or what kind of investment cycle you need to do to support the volume growth you're seeing?

我想，首先，關於收購對工程材料的貢獻，我注意到你沒有將其具體分解出來 - 只是嵌入在卷中。我認為您在幾個季度之前就談到過——您談到您預計收購規模會隨著時間的推移而擴大，因為它為您提供了多次機會。您能否告訴我們您在工程材料方面有多少額外產能，或者您需要進行什麼樣的投資週期來支持您所看到的產量成長？

Yes. Scott, you want to just take a stab at that and I'll...

是的。斯科特，如果你想嘗試一下，我會......

Yes. I mean, look, along with those acquisitions did come the ability to easily expand capacity without much capital. And we're in the process of doing that and we still have some available. However, at the same time, we have a number of investments going on in both compounding at least one polymer expansion that are underway this year and we expect more of that in the future. So we're doing both items, organic expansion and extending the capacity that we acquired through acquisitions.

是的。我的意思是，看，這些收購確實帶來了無需太多資本就能輕鬆擴大產能的能力。我們正在進行這項工作，並且還有一些可用資源。然而，與此同時，我們今年正在對至少一種聚合物擴建項目進行大量投資，我們預計未來還會有更多此類投資。因此，我們正在進行兩項工作，即有機擴張和擴大我們透過收購獲得的產能。

And that fits, Laurence, within the $300 million to $350 million of capital that we've sort of projected for the next several years in previous calls ago.

勞倫斯，這符合我們在先前的電話會議中預測的未來幾年 3 億至 3.5 億美元的資本目標。

And then, secondly, can you update us on your thinking on the Chinese environmental tightening and their related shutdowns? In particular, I guess, how you're thinking about the tailwind from '18 into '19 and '20? Do you see it subsiding? Or what do you see that as the longer-term trend for the Acetyls business?

其次，您能否向我們介紹一下您對中國環境收緊及其相關停工的看法？具體來說，我想，您如何看待從 18 年到 19 年和 20 年的順風？你看到它正在消退嗎？或者您認為乙醯基業務的長期趨勢是什麼？

Yes. So I think if you think about the Acetyls business, you got to take a long-term view and you've got to think of slow rates of change. So we have a business that is growing 2% or 3% per year, maybe accelerating a little bit, so maybe 3% or 4% right now, with that kind of percentages per year.

是的。因此，我認為，如果您考慮乙醯基業務，您必須採取長遠眼光，並且必須考慮緩慢的變化速度。因此，我們的業務每年以 2% 或 3% 的速度成長，也許還會加速一點，所以現在可能是 3% 或 4%，每年的百分比都是這樣的。

And if you look back at the cycle, probably in the '11 time frame, we peaked out in shell capacity somewhere in there. So you have this big build up in China. As you well know, Laurence, the 2008, '09, '10 kind of time period where money was free and everybody wanted to build a plant and everyone wanted to convert coal, which is also free in China. So it was an easy conversion to make. Since then, capacity has been relatively flat and you've seen that creep slowly build effective capacity utilization. And so imagine that 3% -- 2% or 3% decline in that capacity over the time -- available capacity.

如果你回顧這個週期，可能在 2011 年的時間範圍內，我們的空殼產能在某個時候達到了頂峰。所以你們在中國有如此巨大的發展。勞倫斯，您很清楚，2008、2009、2010 年那段時期，錢是免費的，每個人都想建電廠，每個人都想轉化煤炭，而這在中國也是免費的。因此，這是一個很容易實現的轉換。自那時起，產能一直相對平穩，你會看到這種成長緩慢地建立了有效的產能利用率。想像一下，隨著時間的推移，可用容量將下降 3%（2% 或 3%）。

So we find ourselves today at the 80% kind of range on average, a little bit above that. We saw short term, a -- short term being the last couple of quarters, some pinch on that, so maybe it's 83%, 84%, 85%, something like that short-term capacity utilization.

因此，我們發現今天的平均水平處於 80% 左右，略高於這個水平。我們看到短期，也就是過去幾季的短期，有一些壓力，所以可能是 83%、84%、85% 之類的短期產能利用率。

When we look at China per se and the regulations that are going on there and a host of those and all the regions that are impacted, we believe there's going to be 5% capacity reduction as that runs its course over the next 3 or 4 years, that kind of time frame. So we think you've got 5% coming off the top of that at that time. At the same time, you're going to be from the bottom taking away another 6% -- 5% or 6%. So there should be about 10% uptick net-net over the next 3 or 4 years.

當我們觀察中國本身以及那裡正在實施的法規和所有受影響的地區時，我們認為，在未來 3 到 4 年的時間範圍內，產能將減少 5%。因此我們認為屆時您將獲得 5% 的額外收益。同時，你還會從底層拿走另外 6%——5% 或 6%。因此，未來 3 到 4 年內淨值應該會上漲 10% 左右。

If you -- is that -- are you implying that you need to add capacity? I mean, just as a clarification.

如果您—那是—您是在暗示您需要增加容量嗎？我只是想澄清一下。

Well, I think incremental capacity, yes, we're adding incremental capacity now as you know. And from my point of view, should get into sometime in the next decade you'll see capacity addition come on, but it's a long ways away. And today, I think what I'm saying is incremental capacity is the way to go. The other thing you could do is you can look at -- find ways to bring new molecules to market. So that's the kind of thing you're going to see happen now. The tightness is going to be with us for a while and -- yes.

嗯，我認為是增量容量，是的，正如你所知，我們現在正在增加增量容量。從我的角度來看，在未來十年的某個時候，你會看到產能增加，但這還有很長的路要走。今天，我認為我要說的是，增加容量才是正確方向。您可以做的另一件事是尋找將新分子推向市場的方法。這就是你們現在將會看到發生的事情。這種緊張局面還會持續一段時間——是的。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, in acetyls following to Laurence's question, what's a normalized earnings rate here absent the Q1 benefit from the outages? And I think you said -- do you say you expect to see op rates increase 10% in the industry going forward? So based on that, how should we think about normalized earnings power in Acetyl over the next 2, 3 years?

馬克，在回答勞倫斯的問題時，如果沒有停電帶來的第一季收益，這裡的正常化報酬率是多少？我想您說過—您是否預計未來該行業的營運率將成長 10%？那麼基於此，我們該如何看待未來 2 至 3 年內乙醯基的正常獲利能力？

Well, we're going to go in a lot of detail in a few weeks and I don't want to steal the thunder of that, but what I -- we don't have a normalized earnings in our own view of that business. That earnings should grow and should continue to grow in that business for a good while. And so a lot of people think this business is being cyclical, but I think if you really look at it on a capacity point of view, it's only going to kind of going through one cycle in the last 18 years by my math. And demand has been pretty consistent. It was just way overbuilt when that happened.

好吧，我們將在幾週內進行更詳細的討論，我不想搶先一步，但是我認為——在我們看來，我們並沒有對該業務進行正常化的盈利。該業務的收益應該會成長，並且應該會持續成長一段時間。因此，很多人認為這個行業具有週期性，但我認為，如果你從產能的角度來看，根據我的計算，它在過去 18 年只會經歷一個週期。而且需求一直相當穩定。當那件事發生時，它已經過度建設了。

So I think we're moving back to a high capacity utilization scenario. In that time frame in the past, you would routinely see prices about sort of $1,000 a ton. We're nowhere close to that kind of level today. So I think you're going to see it continue to grow, David, as we get out through this -- the next 2 and 3 and 4 years.

所以我認為我們正在回到高產能利用率的情景。在過去的那個時間段裡，你通常會看到大約每噸 1,000 美元的價格。如今我們還遠遠未達到那種水準。所以我認為，隨著我們度過接下來的 2 年、3 年和 4 年，你會看到它繼續增長，大衛。

Understood. And just on Acetate Tow, Mark, is there a Plan B now post the JV being -- not going through?

明白了。就醋酸絲束而言，馬克，合資企業沒有通過後，現在有沒有 B 計畫？

Yes. I think we got Plan D, too. We got B, C and D. We're working. So just -- we said it'd be flat. We're putting forth plans and we'll share those with you guys to keep it flat through this next planning cycle through 2020. And we'll share that with you together in a few weeks.

是的。我想我們也有 D 計畫。我們得到了 B、C 和 D。我們正在努力。所以只是——我們說它會是平的。我們正在製定計劃，並將與大家分享，以確保在 2020 年的下一個規劃週期中保持穩定。我們將在幾週後與大家分享。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的弗蘭克米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

Yes. Just a follow-up on the acetyls and the question about normalized and so forth. Do you have any sense as to -- given the fly up in -- oh, first off, I forgot to say congratulations on your new role, Mr. Richardson.

是的。只是對乙醯基和標準化等問題的後續關注。您是否認為——考慮到飛行——哦，首先，我忘了祝賀您擔任新職務，理查森先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So what do you think the fly up benefit was from the very tight market conditions in acetyls was in Q1? Obviously, this $231 million blew away any prior. Would you say $50 million, $60 million, $70 million of a short-term benefit that you realized in the quarter?

那麼您認為第一季乙醯基市場非常緊張帶來的快速成長是什麼？顯然，這2.31億美元遠遠超過了之前的任何金額。您認為本季您實現的短期收益是 5,000 萬美元、6,000 萬美元還是 7,000 萬美元？

I don't know if we'd look at it. I'm looking at Scott. I mean, the machine produced that number. And if the machine wasn't in place, we didn't have flexibility, we didn't have adaptability, we were locked into long-term contracts with a cost plus basis. I'm not sure what it would have been. It would have been heck of a lot less than (inaudible).

我不知道我們是否會看它。我正在看著史考特。我的意思是，機器產生了這個數字。如果沒有機器，我們就沒有彈性，沒有適應性，我們就會被鎖定在成本加成的長期合約中。我不確定那會是什麼。這比（聽不清楚）少很多。

Yes. I would -- Mark. This is Scott. And, Frank, I would just add to that, that really what's going on here is you do see the fundamentals improving and, like Mark said, those fundamentals will be improving over the course of the next few years. You can imagine that even within those improving fundamentals that you do get a little variability quarter-to-quarter. So there's a little extra sitting in Q1 relative to where we might be in Q2, but it's not a great deal.

是的。我會的——馬克。這是斯科特。弗蘭克，我只想補充一點，現在真正發生的事情是，你確實看到基本面正在改善，而且就像馬克所說的那樣，這些基本面將在未來幾年內得到改善。你可以想像，即使在這些不斷改善的基本面中，季度與季度之間仍會存在一些差異。因此，相對於第二季而言，第一季的庫存會稍微多一些，但並不是很多。

Yes. No. It's an interesting comment that you are expecting acetyls up in 2019 after setting up a very, very difficult comp for the first quarter. So obviously, there is a great expectation for you that, that will continue to improve on the operating basis.

是的。不。這是一個有趣的評論，在為第一季設定了一個非常非常困難的比較之後，你預計乙醯基將在 2019 年上升。因此，顯然，我們對您寄予厚望，希望您的營運基礎能夠繼續改善。

And just if I could, free cash flow obviously was on the light side here in the first quarter. How should we think about the cadence of free cash flow to get to that over $900 million for 2018?

如果可以的話，第一季的自由現金流顯然比較少。我們該如何考慮自由現金流的節奏，才能在 2018 年達到 9 億美元以上？

Yes, Frank. This is Scott Richardson. We expect that to catch up through the year. So what we saw in the first quarter was really just a timing of collections. So about 40% of our Q1 sales occurred in the month of March. And so just from a timing standpoint, a lot of that collection pushes into April. Mark talked about the strength that we saw in Asia. We have slightly longer terms there so that plays a role as well. And Scott Sutton talked about new capacity that we get for very little investment in our acquisitions. One of the things that we do is really optimize how we produce and run on those assets, which is kind of moving from what was a make-to-order model we had in those businesses when we acquired them to a better balance between make-to-order, make-to-stock. And so you saw inventory tick up as well. In addition, we had a little bit of increase in CapEx to support the growth in the businesses. So those were really the reasons for where the free cash flow number came in, in Q1 and we expect to catch that up as we move through the year.

是的，弗蘭克。這是史考特·理查森。我們預計這一目標將在全年實現。因此，我們在第一季看到的實際上只是收集的時間。因此，我們第一季約 40% 的銷售額發生在 3 月。因此，從時間角度來看，許多收藏品都會延到四月。馬克談到了我們在亞洲看到的優勢。我們的任期稍微長一些，所以這也起到了一定的作用。斯科特·薩頓 (Scott Sutton) 談到了我們在收購中以極少的投資獲得的新產能。我們所做的事情之一就是真正優化我們如何生產和運行這些資產，這有點像是從我們收購這些業務時的按訂單生產模式轉變為按訂單生產和按庫存生產之間的更好平衡。因此您也看到庫存增加。此外，我們還略微增加了資本支出以支持業務成長。所以這些確實是第一季自由現金流數字出現的原因，我們預期隨著全年的發展，這個數字將會上升。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. I just want to go back to acetyls one more time. I think you mentioned that -- or you were hinting that this business should continue to grow into 2019. But in your prepared remarks here, you're saying that margins were 24% and you expect 20% margins for the year. So that implies some deal back in second half. Can you just talk about that?

是的。我只是想再一次回到乙醯基。我想您提到過這一點——或者您暗示這項業務應該會在 2019 年繼續成長。但在您準備好的發言中，您說利潤率為 24%，並且您預計今年的利潤率為 20%。所以這意味著下半年會有一些交易。你能簡單談談這個嗎？

Well, I think we're just -- we're trying to range [fund] these things a little bit. It's -- we had a 24% margin in the quarter and that was up 400 basis points over the prior quarter at 20%. I think what we'd say is the normalized margin rate for us is between 24% and 20%, somewhere in that, for the year. I'm looking at Scott when I say that, but something like that. And so when you get past margin, you got volume. And so volume is a function not only of demand, but also people up or down and things like that. So you've got a little bit of volume pull back as we go through the year as some of these units restart, P.J. I mean, that's how we kind of do the math. It's not -- we're not contract down to volume basis or take-or-pay kind of contracts. So we're real time in the market. So we're trying to anticipate exactly what the market's doing with that.

嗯，我認為我們只是——我們正在嘗試為這些事情提供一些資金。本季我們的利潤率為 24%，比上一季的 20% 高出 400 個基點。我認為，我們今年的正常利潤率應該在 24% 至 20% 之間。當我這麼說的時候，我看著史考特，但事情就是這樣的。因此，當你超過保證金時，你就獲得了數量。因此，交易量不僅取決於需求，還取決於人數的增加或減少等因素。因此，隨著一些單位重新啟動，我們在這一年中會發現產量略有回落，P.J. 我的意思是，這就是我們的計算方法。事實並非如此——我們簽訂的合約不是按數量計算的合同，也不是照付不議的合同。所以，我們是即時關注市場的。因此，我們試圖準確預測市場將如何表現。

We also have turnarounds. We have 6 different turnaround schedules this year. We have a couple of them occurring and coming up next month. That's probably a $30 million hit, that kind of thing. We don't talk about that too much, but -- so those things happen and go through and we don't think very much about them. I would urge you guys not to as well. They don't really -- the long term, they don't really impact the numbers.

我們也有轉機。今年我們有 6 種不同的周轉計畫。我們有幾個這樣的活動將於下個月舉行。這可能是一筆 3000 萬美元的損失，諸如此類。我們不會談論太多，但是──這些事情發生了，經歷了，我們卻沒有想太多。我勸你們也不要這麼做。從長遠來看，它們實際上不會對數字產生影響。

Okay. And now that the tow deal is called off, one of your competitors is taking tow into other products like fibers. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about that. And is there plans to shut down any capacity?

好的。現在，拖車交易已經取消，您的一個競爭對手正在將拖車業務拓展到纖維等其他產品領域。我想知道您是否可以稍微談論一下這個問題。是否有關閉任何產能的計劃？

Yes. We're going to -- we'll talk a fair amount about it at the Investor Day. What I would say is right now, no. I mean, there's some other folks that do a great job in fibers. They've been in a long time. We kind of got out of that business. I think it's difficult for us to see running back in there. We have other applications that we're quite proud of that push us more to the polymers side and film side and there's innovation out there that's pretty cool, pretty interesting we're working on. There are productivity things that we're planning and we'll share more of that as time goes on. And collection of all that we believe, plus strong performance in China and growing performance in China, we think those things washout. We'll be able to have 3 years or so of, no matter what the market does, kind of pretty stable earnings, flat earnings. And there's still options for us to do other things. And we'll share more of that with you. I think the important thing that you should hear from me as it relates to cash flow from that business, we don't see that changing over the next 3 years.

是的。我們將會－在投資者日上詳細討論這個問題。我現在要說的是，不是。我的意思是，還有一些人在纖維方面做得很好。他們已經在一起很久了。我們差不多已經退出那個行業了。我認為我們很難看到那裡的跑動。我們還有其他引以為傲的應用，這些應用將我們推向聚合物和薄膜領域，我們正在研究一些非常酷、非常有趣的創新。我們正在規劃一些提高生產力的事情，隨著時間的推移，我們會分享更多。綜合考慮我們的所有信念，再加上中國市場的強勁表現和不斷增長的業績，我們認為這些因素都會消失。無論市場如何變化，我們都能夠獲得大約三年的相當穩定的收益，平穩的收益。我們還可以做其他事情。我們將與您分享更多內容。我認為您應該從我這裡聽到的與該業務的現金流有關的重要事情是，我們認為未來 3 年內這種情況不會改變。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特。

Mark, when you guys contemplate strategy 3.0 for the EM business, do you anticipate you can continue to achieve those high-single organic volume growth rates? And then, what more do you need in that tool kit either from a product or geographic standpoint? And can you talk about the staffing needs as you continue to grow that business so aggressively?

馬克，當你們考慮針對 EM 業務的 3.0 策略時，您是否預計可以繼續實現那些高單一有機銷售成長率？那麼，從產品或地理角度來看，您還需要該工具包中的什麼？隨著業務的不斷積極發展，您能談談人員需求嗎？

Well, I'll make just a brief comment and then let Scott kind of dig into that, if you wouldn't mind, Scott. But if you look at that business and success that the team has had, they are -- we've grown earnings -- I believe I'm right saying $70 million, $80 million, $90 million year-over-year for the last 3 years. As you think in terms of this year, it must be north of $100 million, $100 million plus in that growth and that's kind of the embedded rate that we have built in on our model. So we see that kind of continuing if I'm to say that. This is a strong growth and strong contribution business out there. We believe that the project model is S-curve. It's nowhere near curved out and we have plans to overlay curves on top of that with things like translation. So we feel really strongly that, that model is going to continue to generate that high single digits kind of growth that's out there and that's kind of a year-over-year basis, not necessarily quarter-to-quarter kind of thing.

好吧，我先做一個簡短的評論，然後讓斯科特深入探討一下，如果你不介意的話，斯科特。但如果你看看團隊的業務和成功，你會發現——我們的收入有所增長——我相信我說的沒錯，過去 3 年，我們的收入每年都增長 7,000 萬美元、8,000 萬美元、9,000 萬美元。就今年而言，你的預期收入必須超過 1 億美元，甚至超過 1 億美元，而這正是我們在模型中嵌入的利率。所以如果我要這麼說的話，我們會看到這種情況繼續下去。這是一家成長強勁、貢獻巨大的企業。我們認為該專案模型呈現S曲線。它還沒有完全彎曲，我們計劃用諸如平移之類的東西來覆蓋曲線。因此，我們堅信，該模式將繼續實現高個位數成長，而且是同比增長，而不一定是季度同比增長。

Scott, do you want to talk about thought process about where this is going from a point of your products and markets and...

史考特，你想從你的產品和市場的角度談談這個想法的走向嗎？ ……

Yes. Sure. I mean, Bob, Scott here. Look, I mean, that business really is set up to not only extend earnings, but grow earnings further. And to your question, what do we really need to be able to do that, well, I mean, as you know, we have a pretty novel model there that matches up the robust market opportunity that we have really with the broadest solution set in the industry. So you'll see us do things like expand that solution set. Some of that will be organic, but it could be inorganic as well. There are a few polymers that we're not experts in today that we can do that. We also have opportunity in other geographies where we may not have a giant presence today and that's a prime target for a bolt-on acquisition.

是的。當然。我的意思是，鮑勃，斯科特在這裡。你看，我的意思是，這項業務實際上不僅是為了擴大收益，而且是為了進一步增加收益。對於您的問題，我們真正需要什麼才能做到這一點，嗯，我的意思是，如您所知，我們有一個非常新穎的模型，可以將我們擁有的強勁市場機會與業內最廣泛的解決方案相匹配。因此，您會看到我們做一些事情，例如擴展解決方案集。其中一些是有機的，但也可能是無機的。對於一些我們目前還不是專家的聚合物，我們可以做到這一點。在其他地區，我們也有機會，目前我們可能還沒有大規模的影響力，而這些地區正是我們進行附加收購的主要目標。

I mean, look, the key to making this work is we have a great team running this business and operating in this business. And that novel model is our intellectual property and that great team focuses on working on that model every day, improving processes so that we can be globally connected and solve solutions around the world for customers and that's what we'll continue to do.

我的意思是，看，使這項業務成功的關鍵是我們擁有一支優秀的團隊來經營這項業務。這種新穎的模式是我們的智慧財產權，優秀的團隊每天都致力於研究這種模式，改進流程，以便我們能夠實現全球互聯，為世界各地的客戶提供解決方案，而這也是我們將繼續做的事情。

And do you have any metric, Scott, you can share around headcount or product development, R&D? I mean, obviously, if you're growing that fast, I assume it's got to be a burden on your internal staffing and growth there? Can you talk about how you achieve that?

史考特，您能分享一下有關員工人數、產品開發和研發的指標嗎？我的意思是，顯然，如果你們發展得那麼快，我認為這會給你們的內部人員配備和發展帶來負擔？你能談談你是如何實現這一目標的嗎？

Well, yes. I mean, I wouldn't say it's a burden, of course. I would think more as a challenge. I mean, the #1 metric we have is a well-known number of projects that we get wins on. We'll get 3,000 purchase orders for new projects this year, but what will go up is our commercialization rate. We brought that from a lower level up to almost 45% today. We are adding some resources, Bob, but we also continue to get more efficient as well.

嗯，是的。我的意思是，我當然不會說這是一種負擔。我認為這更是一種挑戰。我的意思是，我們的首要指標是我們贏得的項目數量。今年我們會拿到3000個新項目的採購訂單，但上升的是我們的商品化率。今天我們將這一比例從較低水準提高到了近 45%。鮑勃，我們正在增加一些資源，但我們也不斷提高效率。

Yes. I'll make a comment on that. As Scott said, the focus on efficiency is what's made that model. It's been the element we needed in that model to make it work with the organization that we have. Absent that improving efficiency, we would -- we start to top out that S-curve. So we've not done that yet.

是的。我將對此發表評論。正如斯科特所說，對效率的關注正是該模型的形成原因。這是我們在該模型中所需要的元素，以使其與我們現有的組織協同工作。如果沒有提高效率，我們就會開始達到 S 曲線的頂峰。所以我們還沒有這樣做。

What we're focused on now is other dimensions. So we think of these as the classic S-curve, so the development phase, the growth phase and the maturation phase. As we move up that curve and this machine that gets better and better, that machine is important, we find ways to translate more of these products because translation is a whole another dimension of efficacy of this model. And we'll talk about that in 2 weeks how we approach that, how we leverage success in one area to another area. And to be very honest with you, scratching the surface on that. That's going to -- if I say that that's going to make our growth here happen without proportionate addition of resources because we just get better and better at what we do and it becomes easier for us to grow.

我們現在關注的是其他維度。所以我們把它們看作是經典的 S 曲線，也就是發展階段、成長階段和成熟階段。隨著我們沿著這條曲線前進，這台機器變得越來越好，這台機器很重要，我們會找到翻譯更多這些產品的方法，因為翻譯是這個模型功效的另一個維度。我們將在兩週內討論如何處理這個問題，如何將一個領域的成功應用到另一個領域。坦白講，這只是冰山一角。那將會 — — 如果我說那會讓我們在這裡實現成長，而無需相應增加資源，因為我們所做的事情會越來越好，而且我們的成長也會變得更容易。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Mark, I was hoping you could kind of back up a bit and touch on the overall sort of macro. You call that China is a driver for both Engineered Materials and acetyls. What about the other regions? How would you sort of characterize global growth as we sit today?

馬克，我希望你能稍微回顧一下並談談整體宏觀問題。您說中國是工程材料和乙醯基的推動者。其他地區的情況怎麼樣？您如何描述當今的全球成長？

Well, from a very high level for us, the entire world is doing well. We have strong business in the Americas and improving footprints across the Americas. We have very strong performance in Europe and great innovation in Europe, great connectivity with all the major OEMs and innovative OEMs in Europe that really drives a lot of growth not only in Europe, but around the world. In Japan, we're seeing stronger performance and we're seeing more connectivity with the Japanese OEMs inside Japan with our team, and that could -- translates into business outside of Japan as well. And then, you get into China. China just continues to improve. They're -- it's classic material upgrade. A lot of work with autos there, a lot of work with consumer goods there. It's all to make them better for their local market. So we see every place doing pretty well.

嗯，從我們非常高的層次來看，整個世界都表現得很好。我們在美洲的業務強勁，且業務範圍在美洲各地不斷擴大。我們在歐洲的表現非常出色，創新能力很強，與歐洲所有主要原始設備製造商和創新原始設備製造商都有良好的聯繫，這不僅推動了歐洲的成長，也推動了全球的成長。在日本，我們看到了更強勁的業績，我們的團隊與日本境內的日本原始設備製造商建立了更多的聯繫，這也可以轉化為日本以外的業務。然後，你就進入中國了。中國正在不斷進步。它們是——這是經典的材料升級。那裡有很多與汽車有關的工作，也有很多與消費品有關的工作。這一切都是為了讓他們更適應當地市場。所以我們看到每個地方都做得很好。

Okay. Just a second question. Last quarter, you pointed towards the legacy Consumer Specialties segment being flat on an EPS basis for 2018. Do you still think that will be the case in the context of the re-segmentation of food? And then, can you sort of update us on the EPS contributions from each of the segments given your big guidance raise for the year?

好的。我還有第二個問題。上個季度，您指出傳統消費品特種產品部門 2018 年的每股盈餘將持平。您是否仍認為在食品重新細分的背景下情況仍會如此？然後，鑑於您對今年的指導大幅上調，您能否向我們介紹每個部門的每股收益貢獻？

Yes. So I'll start that with a big hell yes. We look at it as acetate tow now as we call it and we're good stewards of that business. And we've been saying we'll be flat for a couple of years and we've been flat for a couple of years and it will be flat this year. So we're able to manage that business in a way that we continue earnings in spite of the fact that there is this gradual decline underway.

是的。因此，我會以一聲肯定的回答開始。我們現在將其視為醋酸纖維絲束，我們是該業務的良好管理者。我們一直說幾年內我們的業績會保持平穩，而且我們已經平穩了幾年，今年的業績也將保持平穩。因此，儘管業務逐漸下滑，我們仍能以某種方式管理業務，繼續獲利。

I do want to mention that business is a lot calmer today since we kind of run through that capacity drop that occur when people -- when the Chinese quit importing so much material. That's almost run -- fully run its course. So now you see more normalized situation.

我確實想說，今天的業務平靜多了，因為我們經歷了當人們——當中國人停止進口如此多的材料時發生的產能下降。這幾乎已經完成了——完全完成了它的歷程。所以現在你看到的情況更正常化了。

So yes, we're going to be flat this year and I think we can be that way for the next 3 years, which is the basis of kind of our plan.

所以是的，今年我們的業績將持平，而且我認為未來 3 年我們也能保持這種水平，這是我們計劃的基礎。

And the EBIT, you said -- so the EBIT kind of by segment?

您說的是息稅前利潤 (EBIT) — — 那麼息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 是按部分劃分的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll take a stab at this. Scott, [weigh in a little bit]. So I just told you we're flat. You got that in acetate tow. It's flat. That's a pretty easy one to do. And flat for us is plus or minus $10 million, something like that. So we're not that good, but flat is what we'd say that to be.

所以我會嘗試一下。斯科特，[稍微發表一下意見]。所以我剛才告訴你我們的情況是平的。你得到了醋酸纖維束。它是平的。這是一件相當容易的事。對我們來說，持平就是正負 1,000 萬美元左右，諸如此類。所以，我們並不是那麼好，但我們會說這是平淡的。

If you look at the EM business, we've already told you $100 million-plus, so that's kind of that business. And you get into $200 million, $200 million-plus in the Acetyl Chain business, and that's kind of how the math's going to work out for this year.

如果你看一下 EM 業務，我們已經告訴你它的價值超過 1 億美元，所以這就是那種業務。乙醯鏈業務的利潤將達到 2 億美元，甚至超過 2 億美元，這就是今年的獲利情況。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, when you think about Engineered Materials, you've doubled the business since the last downturn. And when you think about the pace of acquisitions potential, I mean, what do you see as the potential to grow this business over the next 3 to 5 years?

馬克，說到工程材料，自上次經濟衰退以來，你們的業務已經翻了一番。當您考慮收購潛力的速度時，我的意思是，您認為未來 3 到 5 年內這項業務的成長潛力有多大？

I'm going to let Scott answer that. Scott (inaudible)

我請斯科特來回答這個問題。斯科特（聽不清楚）

Yes. I mean, look -- hi, Mike. Scott Sutton. I think in terms of more acquisitions, there's a broad slate of candidates out there. And we have a very big pipeline and we are talking to 1 to 200 over the course of 12 months that we put through a funnel process. And you've seen those come up with and be able to match objectives. We said we'd do nylon and we've done nylon. Now, we're looking even at other growth technology initiatives that we have. For example, medical, energy storage, these things will be trying to find acquisitions that match up to those needs.

是的。我的意思是，看——嗨，麥克。斯科特·薩頓。我認為，就更多收購而言，有許多候選人。我們有一個非常大的管道，我們將在 12 個月內與 1 到 200 人進行溝通，並透過漏斗流程進行溝通。你已經看到這些想法已經提出並且能夠實現目標。我們說過要做尼龍，而且我們已經做了尼龍。現在，我們甚至正在考慮我們擁有的其他成長技術計劃。例如，醫療、能源存儲，這些領域將試圖尋找符合這些需求的收購。

But at the end of the day, there's a lot of opportunity out there, Mike. It's about finding the best opportunity. And of course, we're going to pay the right value for these. We target around a multiple of 10. So there's really not a cap on Engineered Materials. And you've got to remember, we're, call it, 1% of global Engineered Materials business out there. So there's plenty of opportunity, right? It's just a matter of us progressing on those.

但最終，還是有很多機會的，麥克。這是為了尋找最佳機會。當然，我們會為這些付出適當的代價。我們的目標是 10 的倍數左右。因此，工程材料實際上沒有上限。你必須記住，我們只佔全球工程材料業務的 1%。所以機會還是很多的，對吧？這只是我們在這些方面取得進展的問題。

The $70 million, $80 million, $90 million, $100 million-plus, I mean, you look at $100 million, $100 million, $100 million, you just look at the additive factor of that, that is the base model we have in place today and we still have opportunity to make that work the way it's worked. We don't see that changing, Mike.

7000 萬美元、8000 萬美元、9000 萬美元、1 億美元以上，我的意思是，你看看 1 億美元、1 億美元、1 億美元，你只看其中的附加因素，這就是我們今天所採用的基本模型，我們仍然有機會讓它按照原來的方式發揮作用。我們認為這種情況不會改變，麥克。

What we've not talked about is increased optionality that we're getting as we go to business. The business is getting a bit tighter. So with a lot of these Engineered Materials, capacity is not long. It's getting quite short. We've got incremental expansions underway. We'll be adding more volume as we go through these next several years, self-producing more volume, which is a good thing. It's needed by the market. Very, very cost-effective for us to do that. And we still not talked about a bigger deal. There's a couple of those out there that we continue to play with. So I think this business, if you laid a straight edge on what's happened the last several years, that's how I plan it out.

我們還沒有談論的是，我們在開展業務時獲得的更多可選性。生意變得有點緊張了。因此，對於許多此類工程材料來說，其容量並不長。它變得相當短了。我們正在進行漸進式擴張。在接下來的幾年裡，我們將增加產量，自行生產更多產量，這是一件好事。這是市場所需要的。對我們來說，這樣做非常非常划算。我們還沒有談論更大的交易。我們仍在繼續玩其中的幾個。所以我認為，如果你回顧過去幾年發生的事情，就會明白我是如何規劃這項業務的。

Right. Okay. Great. And then, in terms of your outlook for '18 in Engineered Materials, I think I might have missed it, but your first quarter organic growth was -- I forget -- I don't know what that was, but for the full year, it should be what, high single digits to maybe double digits for organic growth?

正確的。好的。偉大的。然後，關於您對 2018 年工程材料業務的展望，我想我可能錯過了，但您的第一季有機增長率——我忘了​​——我不知道是多少，但就全年而言，應該是多少，從高個位數到兩位數的有機增長率？

Yes. And so, Mike, I mean, if you think from a volume standpoint for the full year, organically it should be in the high single digits. If you think about what happened in first quarter, just think about it from a revenue standpoint, the acquisitions added almost half of that revenue growth and the rest of that revenue growth was organic.

是的。所以，麥克，我的意思是，如果你從全年銷售的角度來考慮，有機成長應該會達到高個位數。如果您想想第一季發生的事情，只需從收入的角度考慮，收購增加了近一半的收入成長，其餘的收入成長都是有機的。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

A question just on Ibn Sina. Started up early this year. Can you flesh out how that's going to roll through this year? How long it will take for that plant to kind of fill out? How much was just the step-up in ownership versus, again, you've increased operating rates throughout this year? And then, does that anniversary kind of all the way through the first half of next year then?

僅就伊本西納提出一個問題。今年年初就開始了。您能具體說明一下今年將如何進行這項工作嗎？該植物需要多長時間才能長滿？相對於今年全年增加的營運率，所有權的增加幅度是多少？那麼，這個週年紀念日會持續到明年上半年嗎？

Yes. And so, Duffy, this is Scott again. I mean, we did start up that palm plant expansion there last year. We've been withdrawing volume from that in a pretty good clip so far. That supported our growth. It's not running at capacity and it will take through this year probably to get to that level. The earnings have stepped up a little bit and they'll sort of stay at that stepped-up level through the rest of the year, most of that coming from the increased economic ownership that we have there. It's not going to be a dramatic step-up. I mean, there's even turnaround scheduled within that joint venture as well, but you'll see it similar to where it is in first quarter.

是的。那麼，達菲，我又是史考特。我的意思是，我們去年確實在那裡啟動了棕櫚工廠的擴建。到目前為止，我們已經以相當好的速度撤回了這一數量。這支持了我們的成長。它尚未滿負荷運轉，可能要到今年才能達到這一水平。收益已經略有增加，並且在今年剩餘時間內將保持這種增加的水平，其中大部分來自我們在那裡增加的經濟所有權。這不會是顯著的進步。我的意思是，該合資企業內部也計劃進行扭虧為盈，但你會看到它與第一季的情況類似。

Great. And if you could just comment on the Slide 9. You talked a little bit about free cash flow from that slide. But can you talk about just cash flow from ops, the big step down each of the last 2 years kind of from that base of high 200s and what's eating away at that cash flow?

偉大的。如果您能對第 9 張投影片發表評論的話，您在那張投影片中談到了一點有關自由現金流的問題。但是您能否談談營運現金流，過去兩年來，現金流每年都從 200 多美元的高點大幅下降，是什麼在蠶食現金流？

Yes. Duffy, it's really just timing for us. We see, again, being greater than $900 million for the year. And so just what we saw from the strength of the business, particularly in the second half of the quarter, we're collecting that now in April and we see that continuing as we move through the year. So we should catch up as we move through the second quarter and into the third quarter and be back on that trajectory of being in excess of those kind of quarterly -- how we track quarterly going forward through the balance of the year.

是的。達菲，對我們來說這真的只是時間問題。我們再次看到，今年的金額將超過 9 億美元。因此，我們從業務的強勁表現中看到，特別是在本季度的下半段，我們在 4 月份就收集到了這一表現，並且我們看到這種表現將持續到今年年底。因此，隨著我們進入第二季度和第三季度，我們應該迎頭趕上，並回到超過季度的軌道上——我們如何在全年餘額中追蹤季度成長。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can, John.

我們可以，約翰。

Was the benefit from trading activity in acetyls above normal in the quarter? Eastman didn't come back until the start of the quarter. So I would imagine opportunities for trading were still high at the start of the quarter.

本季乙醯基交易活動的收益是否高於正常水準？伊士曼直到本季初才回歸。因此我認為本季初的交易機會仍然很高。

I don't know what your question is. What do you mean trading?

我不知道你的問題是什麼。交易是什麼意思？

Well, I think you said last year, you traded at least the equivalent of a world-scale plan and it sounded like it was above average last year.

嗯，我想你去年說過，你交易的計劃至少相當於一個世界級的計劃，而且聽起來去年的計劃高於平均水平。

Yes. I think, we're -- I think actually early in the year -- early this year was a lot more pricing-oriented and volume was -- our volume, we did trade some. We did move some third party volume in that period of time. As we get into this quarter, still some pricing and some volume that's going on.

是的。我認為，我們——我認為實際上在今年年初——今年年初更加註重定價，而且交易量——我們的交易量，我們確實交易了一些。在那段時間裡，我們確實轉移了一些第三方交易量。進入本季度，一些定價和交易量仍在改變。

Okay. And then in [cig tow], you mentioned there may still be opportunities to extract further value. The Blackstone deal had operational synergies, but I think it also gave you a path to potentially de-consolidate down the road. Do you think you could still find a path to de-consolidate without some sort of merger deal?

好的。然後在[cig tow]中，您提到可能仍有機會進一步挖掘價值。黑石集團的交易具有營運協同效應，但我認為它也為你未來可能實現去整合提供了途徑。您認為，即使不達成某種合併協議，您還能找到一條脫離合併的途徑嗎？

It's a bit harder. I think with EU, it's just a real disappointment. I'll be very honest, from really an economist perspective, there's no reason not to -- for that deal not to occur, but the European Union had some funny views on this concept called overlap. They just didn't want to approve anything unless there was no overlap, which means basically you couldn't do the deal. So I think we see a path where we could do a deal in theory and have it pass the European Union, but practically it's going to be -- it's more difficult.

這有點困難。我認為對歐盟來說這確實令人失望。我會非常誠實地講，從經濟學家的角度來看，沒有理由不達成這項協議，但歐盟對這個稱為重疊的概念有一些奇怪的看法。除非沒有重疊，否則他們只是不想批准任何事情，這意味著基本上你無法達成交易。因此我認為我們看到了一條理論上可以達成協議並讓其獲得歐盟批准的道路，但實際上它將更加困難。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

I understand the first quarter free cash flow dynamics, but I just want to make sure I'm clear on -- you've raised guidance, but the full year free cash flow, if I'm correct, you're still calling for the same, above $900 million. Is that just a continuation of the issue that as you have higher prices in AI, you obviously have higher working capital from an inventory and receivables perspective and you just have to kind of get into a rolling period where that stays the same and then you get the release of cash flow?

我了解第一季的自由現金流動態，但我只是想確保我清楚——您已經提高了指導值，但如果我沒記錯的話，全年自由現金流您仍然要求同樣的數字，超過 9 億美元。這是否只是問題的延續？隨著人工智慧價格的上漲，從庫存和應收帳款的角度來看，你的營運資本顯然也會增加，你只需要進入一個滾動期，保持不變，然後你就會獲得現金流的釋放？

Yes. I mean, that's the best way to look at it. I mean, there's really nothing fundamental going on that's of issue. We talked a little bit about the rise in inventory from the M&A integration activities. That's going to continue. And then, we expect, obviously, to collect that. Again, there's nothing fundamental. Terms are a little bit longer given the dynamics we're seeing right now because we have more in sales in Asia and we saw pricing move up in Asia, particularly through the quarter. And given the outlook that we stated for the balance of the year, I think that's kind of how we see it flowing through, but we don't really see a fundamental issue into that.

是的。我的意思是，這是看待這個問題的最好方式。我的意思是，實際上並沒有什麼根本性的問題。我們稍微談論了併購整合活動導致的庫存增加。這種情況將會持續下去。然後，我們顯然希望收集這些內容。再說一遍，沒有什麼根本性的東西。考慮到我們目前看到的動態，期限會稍微長一些，因為我們在亞洲的銷售額增加了，而且我們看到亞洲的價格上漲，尤其是在本季。考慮到我們對今年餘下時間的展望，我想這就是我們看到的走勢，但我們並沒有真正看到其中的根本問題。

Yes. On an annualized basis, that's right. I think the short term is where we spend a bit more on capital relatively right now than we have been the last few quarters. So that's a -- that was a little bit of a draw in the first quarter as well, yes.

是的。按年率計算，這是正確的。我認為短期內我們目前的資本支出相對比過去幾季要多一些。是的，第一節的比數也有點平手。

And just as a follow-up, I can't help noticing that oil is $75 again. Where would TCX become? And where would you get that going again? Is it much higher than current levels? Or how are you thinking about that, if you're thinking about it at all?

順便說一下，我注意到油價又回到了 75 美元。TCX 會變成什麼樣子？那麼您又會在哪裡得到這樣的結果呢？它是否比當前水平高得多？或者您是怎麼考慮這個問題的（如果您正在考慮這個問題的話）？

Yes. We're not really thinking about it at all. I'm looking at the team, unless they're thinking about it and not telling me about it. But...

是的。我們實際上根本沒有考慮過這個問題。我正在觀察這個團隊，除非他們正在考慮這件事，但沒有告訴我。但...

Yes.

是的。

They look guilty over there, Vince, and I'm not sure.

文斯，他們那邊看起來很內疚，我不確定。

Yes.

是的。

Go ahead, Scott.

繼續吧，斯科特。

Yes. It's interesting. I mean, certainly, ethanol demand for fuel in China is up. There's still the questions over organic versus synthetic to get over.

是的。這很有趣。我的意思是，中國對燃料乙醇的需求肯定會上升。關於有機與合成的問題仍有待解決。

Yes. China can't meet their ethanol mandate. And so I think they're struggling with it. So that could suffer some things in there, but we're really not actually pushing it.

是的。中國無法滿足其乙醇要求。所以我認為他們正在為此苦苦掙扎。因此，這可能會造成一些影響，但我們實際上並沒有推動它。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just to follow up on the guidance here. So the 20% to 25% EPS growth, is there a way to kind of characterize maybe how much is persistent acetyls upside or maybe the acquisition contribution or EM doing better than expected? I mean, I guess, I'm just curious as to the mechanism as to this kind of coming back down with lower ethylene maybe a positive for your VAM margins in Q1 or...

只是為了遵循這裡的指導。那麼，對於 20% 至 25% 的 EPS 成長率，有沒有辦法可以描述乙醯基的持續上漲空間，或者收購貢獻或 EM 的表現是否比預期更好？我的意思是，我想，我只是對這種隨著乙烯含量降低而回落的機制感到好奇，這可能對您第一季的 VAM 利潤率產生積極影響，或者...

I think it's -- just a rule of thumb, you can't use -- you can't be too specific with your numbers when you're looking at big numbers like this, but for us, broadly speaking, we've outlined it. We've got a very, very strong year in materials. And they're off to a good start and we expect that to continue as we go through the year, so that's $100 million-plus kind of quantity. Tow's flat year-over-year, plus, minus of $10 million or $50 million. Something like that. It's flat. And then, you get into the Chain business and the Chain business has $100 million to $140 million kind of first quarter. I think we're $200 million-plus for the year. So you're going to see that moderate a bit, but it doesn't mean our line business is not really strong. I mean, that subtle movements in pricing and incremental volumes and things like that will moderate. We've got a bunch of turnarounds to do. Each one of those puts us in the offer of $10 million to $15 million and we have about 6 of those. So that will all be plugged into that scenario that rolls out as we go through the year. So you should expect a stronger first half than the second half, but you should also expect that next year is stronger than this year.

我認為這只是一條經驗法則，你不能使用——當你看到像這樣的大數字時，你不能對你的數字太具體，但對我們來說，廣義上講，我們已經概述了它。今年我們的材料業務表現非常強勁。他們已經有了一個良好的開端，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到今年年底，因此銷售額將超過 1 億美元。與去年同期相比，銷售額持平，分別增加或減少 1,000 萬美元或 5,000 萬美元。類似這樣的。它是平的。然後，你進入連鎖業務，連鎖業務第一季的銷售額為 1 億至 1.4 億美元。我認為我們今年的收入將超過 2 億美元。因此，你會看到這種成長有所放緩，但這並不意味著我們的業務不夠強勁。我的意思是，價格、增量等的細微變動將會緩和。我們有很多扭轉局面的工作要做。每一個都為我們帶來了 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元的報價，我們目前有大約 6 個這樣的報價。因此，這一切都將融入我們全年推出的情景中。因此，你應該預期上半年會比下半年強勁，但你也應該預期明年會比今年強勁。

And also, Mark, I would just add to that, that, look, I mean, the business strategies are working and materializing. There are good, concrete fundamentals underneath all 3 businesses and that's why we're confident in saying that this will continue. I mean, the acetyls team continues to implement their model and so does the Engineered Materials team. So you see that moving forward.

另外，馬克，我還要補充一點，看，我的意思是，我們的商業策略正在發揮作用並實現。這三家企業都擁有良好、堅實的基礎，因此我們有信心說這種勢頭將會持續下去。我的意思是，乙醯基團隊繼續實施他們的模型，工程材料團隊也是如此。所以你看到它正在向前發展。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, on the acquisition pipeline, you mentioned compounding earlier. I mean, are there any other particular substrates or capabilities you're looking for? And what -- do you still have the plan to use the other half maybe for buybacks or maybe you can just reiterate your plans for cash there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，關於收購管道，您之前提到了複合。我的意思是，您是否正在尋找其他特定的基質或功能？並且—您是否仍計劃使用另一半資金進行回購，或者您是否可以重申您的現金計劃？

Yes. On the buyback question, we haven't really made a decision on that. We'll share more on the weeks ahead with our plans on share buybacks and that's in part because we see lots of M&A activity theoretically in front of us so we need to sort through that just a little bit.

是的。關於回購問題，我們還沒有做出決定。我們將在未來幾週內分享更多關於股票回購計劃的信息，部分原因是我們看到理論上有很多併購活動在我們面前，所以我們需要對此進行一些梳理。

I'd rather not say which molecules we're going after and things like that in the M&A. What I will say, just echo what Scott has pointed to is that we tend to look at initiatives. And that can be a polymer-based initiative, which fell into heat and fell into nylon, and so that was an issue we've been on. And we've gone from being a small player there, I think, to perhaps the largest independent compounder of nylon. If not, we're pretty close. So that move was the move we made and we have now moves like that underway, medical and energy storage and things like that. So we'll see how those unfolds as time goes on.

我不想說我們在併購中追求哪些分子以及諸如此類的事情。我想說的是，正如斯科特所指出的，我們傾向於關注舉措。這可能是一個基於聚合物的舉措，但它卻陷入了熱和尼龍的困境，所以這是我們一直在研究的問題。我認為，我們已經從那裡的一個小參與者發展成為最大的獨立尼龍複合材料生產商。如果不是，那我們也已經很接近了。所以這是我們採取的舉措，現在我們正在進行類似的舉措，涉及醫療、能源儲存等領域。因此，我們將看到隨著時間的推移，這些情況將如何發展。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan。

I'd like to clarify. On Acetyl Intermediates, was there any -- in your discussion of trading activity, was there a onetime trading gain or loss in the numbers for this quarter?

我想澄清一下。關於乙醯中間體，當您討論交易活動時，本季的數據中是否存在一次性交易收益或損失？

No. The answer -- I mean, the answer to that is no, but what I will say is that we have this globally connected model that we go out and activate the network and we measure how we're doing and how we're growing by how we activate that network. And we continue to increase those number of activations, but there's no specific kind of one-off trading gain or something like that. I just want to be clear about that.

不。答案——我的意思是，答案是否定的，但我想說的是，我們擁有這種全球連接模型，我們走出去並激活網絡，並通過我們如何激活該網絡來衡量我們的表現和增長。我們會繼續增加啟動次數，但並沒有特定的一次性交易收益或類似的東西。我只是想明確這一點。

And then, in Engineered Materials, can you talk about what -- how you see margins progressing over the next few quarters? When you're adding in acquisitions, you talked about those being dilutive. Do you expect to completely offset that dilution and to actually expand margins? And also with the re-segmentation, how should we think about margin -- the margin runway in that business?

然後，在工程材料方面，您能談談您如何看待未來幾季的利潤率成長嗎？當您增加收購時，您談到了這些收購會稀釋股權。您是否希望完全抵消這種稀釋並真正擴大利潤率？而且，隨著重新細分，我們該如何考慮利潤——該業務的利潤空間？

Well, look, as long as we're running bolt-ons, I mean, you can expect that margin to be around 19% to 20% without the equity income from the joint ventures. We get a little bit of dilution, but we're covering from dilution from previous bolt-ons we did. If we weren't doing bolt-ons, you'd see that come up a little bit.

嗯，只要我們繼續運行附加功能，那麼你可以預期利潤率將在 19% 到 20% 左右，不包括合資企業的股權收入。我們的股權被稀釋了一點，但我們正在彌補先前附加措施造成的稀釋。如果我們不做附加措施，你會看到這種情況增加。

As far as the re-segmentation where we put the Food Ingredients into the Engineered Materials business because the project pipeline runs in a similar fashion, you've got to think in terms of maybe that's 5% of the overall Engineered Materials business. So it's really not impactful.

至於重新細分，我們將食品成分放入工程材料業務中，因為專案管道以類似的方式運行，您必須考慮這可能佔整個工程材料業務的 5%。所以它實際上沒有什麼影響。

And how dilutive is that business to this segment?

該業務對該部門的稀釋程度如何？

It's not dilutive. It's similar.

它不具有稀釋作用。很類似。

Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Mark, a question on the AI side of things. Look, you, in your earlier remarks, talked about volume growth being quite robust in Q1 and then sort of not being as strong over the next couple of quarters. So just trying to get a sense of what sort of volume growth we should expect because, I mean, it seems that you guys generated 5% year-on-year volume growth in Q1, which kind of seems relatively normal. So I'm just trying to understand on the volume front what we should expect for the remainder of the year.

馬克，關於人工智慧方面的問題。您看，在您之前的評論中，您談到第一季的銷售成長相當強勁，但在接下來的幾季中銷售成長就沒那麼強勁了。所以只是想了解我們應該期待什麼樣的銷售成長，因為，我的意思是，你們第一季的銷量比去年同期成長了 5%，這似乎相對正常。因此，我只是想從數量方面了解我們對今年剩餘時間的預期。

Yes. I think we believe that 3% to 5% as you look out over the next several years should be pretty average growth for us. I'm looking at Scott. I think that's right.

是的。我認為，我們認為未來幾年 3% 到 5% 的成長率對我們來說應該是相當平均的。我正在看著史考特。我認為那是對的。

Yes.

是的。

But quarter-to-quarter, that can be up and down and -- but that's where I think we are. If you look back over your shoulder, it's been more like 1% to 2%. So it doesn't take much to make a real difference. And we have a number of these pretty incremental expansions we're doing. And so we can secure that volume, and we can also build into that volume we get a very high return. So we're seeing that volume picture for us be -- and we'll share more about that in a few days, but a big part of our continued growth in earnings in this business.

但每季的情況可能會有起伏——但我認為我們現在的情況就是這樣。如果你回顧一下，你會發現這個比例更像是 1% 到 2%。因此並不需要花太多就能帶來真正的改變。我們正在進行大量此類相當漸進的擴張。因此，我們可以確保該數量，並且我們還可以利用該數量來獲得非常高的回報。因此，我們看到了銷售情況——我們將在幾天後分享更多相關信息，但這是我們該業務收益持續增長的很大一部分。

Understood. Now, the methanol side of things seems to be -- continue to be quite strong. Price is high. Supply demand seems to be relatively tight. So any further thoughts about a potential second facility in the U.S.?

明白了。現在，甲醇方面的情況似乎持續保持強勁。價格高。供應需求似乎相對緊張。那麼，對於在美國建立第二家工廠的可能性您還有什麼想法嗎？

Well, we continue to look at it. I think it's not -- it doesn't hit the priority level of these other things we're doing right now, but it's certainly a -- it remains a very, very viable project and we'll just keep you guys posted on our thoughts with that.

嗯，我們繼續看下去。我認為它不是——它沒有達到我們現在正在做的其他事情的優先級，但它肯定是一個——它仍然是一個非常非常可行的項目，我們只會讓你們了解我們的想法。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

This is Matt on for Kevin. But just looking at the proposed Chinese import tariffs on plasticized cellulose acetates, I mean, I know you have 4 tow facilities under JV with CNTC locally in China. So, I guess, expected to pertain to you specifically on a company basis, but what do you anticipate will be the fallout on an industry level if there is any?

這是馬特 (Matt) 代替凱文 (Kevin)。但僅從中國提出的增塑醋酸纖維素進口關稅來看，我知道您在中國當地與中國煙草總公司合資擁有 4 個拖車設施。所以，我想，預計這與您公司的具體情況有關，但是如果有的話，您預計在行業層面會產生什麼影響？

Matt, this is Scott Sutton. I mean, what I would say is you're right. I mean, most of those joint ventures are back integrated in the acetate plate. We supply a little bit in there, but we actually supply it from outside the U.S. from another facility. So we're not impacted. Other acetate plates does flow into China there. So there could be some impact yet to be seen.

馬特，這是史考特·薩頓。我的意思是，我想說你是對的。我的意思是，大多數合資企業都重新整合到了醋酸纖維板領域。我們在那裡供應少量產品，但實際上是從美國境外的另一家工廠供應。所以我們沒有受到影響。其他醋酸板材確實從那裡流入中國。因此，也可能產生一些尚待觀察的影響。

And I would say on that too, Matt, is that the volumes are pretty low now for everybody. I mean, it's not -- I wouldn't get too worked up over that.

馬特，關於這一點我也想說的是，現在每個人的音量都很低。我的意思是，這不是——我不會對此太過激動。

Yes. It's certainly come down. And then, as a follow-up, I guess, you buy a fair amount of ethylene for your VAM and polyethylene production. I think we kind of estimated you somewhere around like 1.25 billion, 1.5 billion pounds a year. I mean, ethylene prices are historic low. So was that a tailwind for the quarter?

是的。它確實下降了。然後，作為後續行動，我猜您會購買相當數量的乙烯用於 VAM 和聚乙烯生產。我想我們估計你的年收入大約是 12.5 億到 15 億英鎊。我的意思是，乙烯價格處於歷史低點。那麼這對本季來說是一個順風嗎？

No.

不。

Or do you anticipate this to be larger for 2Q and give you spot buyer or a contract buyer?

或者您預計第二季的銷售量會更大，並給您現貨買家或合約買家？

No. If you look at it around the world, you're right. We bought a lot of ethylene in Asia. We bought a lot in Europe and we bought in the U.S. as well. U.S. has a lot of pass-through ties to raw material, so most of that is covered in pass-through. So we don't see a lot of impact of ethylene, especially spot in U.S. as well will have an impact on us.

不。如果你放眼世界，你是對的。我們在亞洲購買了大量乙烯。我們在歐洲買了很多，在美國也買了很多。美國與原料有著許多的轉嫁關係，因此大部分都包含在轉嫁關係中。因此，我們看不到乙烯的太大影響，尤其是美國現貨也會對我們產生影響。

Our next question comes from Alex Yefremov with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Alex Yefremov。

Coming back to Engineered Materials, where do you stand in your efforts to raise prices? I think you were pursuing that earlier this year. Are you continuing to raise in second quarter?

回到工程材料，您在提高價格方面採取了什麼措施？我認為你今年早些時候就在追求這一點。您在第二季會繼續升息嗎？

And also where do you stand in realizing the full benefit of the recent acquisitions that you made? What's the level of accretion incrementally in terms of EPS or margin that we can see later in '18 or in 2019?

您如何充分發揮最近收購的效益？就每股盈餘或利潤率而言，我們可以在 2018 年後期或 2019 年看到多少水準的增量成長？

Yes. So this is Scott, Alex. In terms of pricing, right, we're having some success raising price. You can see that sequentially, prices has come up. And we've just announced another round that are in the process of implementing those prices and we expect to be successful with most of those increases.

是的。這是斯科特，亞歷克斯。就定價而言，我們在提高價格方面取得了一些成功。您可以看到，價格逐漸上漲。我們剛剛宣布了另一輪價格上調的實施進程，我們預計大部分價格上調都會成功。

Second part of your question was what topic? Remind me again.

你的問題的第二部分是什麼主題？再提醒我一下。

Sorry. Yes. Recent acquisitions in Engineered Materials. What's a -- are you fully realizing the benefit of integration or is there some incremental benefit?

對不起。是的。近期在工程材料領域的收購。什麼是——您是否充分認識到整合的好處或是否有一些增量好處？

Yes. I mean, no, there's incremental benefit left, right? I mean, maybe we're 1/3 of the way through with integrating those 3 acquisitions. I won't give specific numbers, but remember, we went back and said that, look, 1 or 2 of those added $0.10 this year in the first year and another one maybe added $0.05 a share. So everything is progressing to plan. But at the end of the day, those will double, triple those values over the course of the first 3 years. That's the way to think about it.

是的。我的意思是，不，還有增量利益，對嗎？我的意思是，我們可能已經完成了這三次收購的整合工作的三分之一。我不會給出具體的數字，但請記住，我們回過頭來說，看，其中 1 或 2 個在今年第一年增加了 0.10 美元，另一個可能每股增加了 0.05 美元。一切都在按計劃進行。但最終，在前三年內，這些價值將會翻倍、三倍。這就是思考這個問題的方式。

Steven, we will now conclude the call.

史蒂文，我們現在結束通話。

Thank you for your questions and for listening in this morning. We're available after the call to address any further questions you may have.

感謝您的提問以及今天早上的聆聽。通話結束後，我們仍可解答您可能有的任何其他問題。

Steven, please close the call.

史蒂文，請掛斷電話。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。