塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Celanese Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Chuck Kyrish。請繼續。

Thanks, Jerry. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. This is Chuck Kyrish. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Todd Elliott, Senior Vice President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝，傑瑞。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2018年第四季財報電話會議。這是查克·凱裡什。今天與我一起的還有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson) 和乙醯鏈高級副總裁托德·埃利奧特 (Todd Elliott)。

Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about expectations for future results. Actual results might differ materially from these statements. Please see our SEC reports for risk factors relating to any forward-looking statements.

今天的演示包括對未來結果預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱我們的 SEC 報告，以了解與任何前瞻性陳述相關的風險因素。

Our discussion today will also include references to non-GAAP financial measures. You can find information related to these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to their comparable GAAP measures on our website in the Investor Relations section. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials are available on the SEC's EDGAR system.

我們今天的討論還將包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。您可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到與這些非 GAAP 指標相關的資訊以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳資訊。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告可在美國證券交易委員會的 EDGAR 系統上取得。

Celanese Corporation distributed its fourth quarter 2018 earnings release via Business Wire and posted slides and prepared remarks about the quarter in the Investor Relations section of our website yesterday after market closed. Since we published our comments yesterday, we'll go directly to your questions.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業新聞發布了其 2018 年第四季度收益報告，並在昨天市場收盤後在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了有關本季度的幻燈片和準備好的評論。由於我們昨天已經發表了評論，因此我們將直接回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Wondering if you could help us with the Acetyl Chain and just obviously a lot of volatility in the fourth quarter after a phenomenal year. What would you think the range of outcomes is this year in 2019? And what are the dynamics that would bookend that? There was a lot of conversation in your prepared remarks about sort of the interplay of methanol and oil and ethylene. But maybe you could just unpack that for all of us and help us with a framework for modeling purposes.

想知道您是否能幫助我們解決乙醯鏈問題，以及在經歷了非凡的一年之後，第四季度顯然會出現很大的波動。您認為 2019 年的結果範圍是怎樣的？那麼，哪些動力可以結束這個過程呢？您在準備好的演講中多次談到甲醇、石油和乙烯之間的相互作用。但也許您可以為我們所有人解開這個問題，並幫助我們建立一個用於建模的框架。

Right. Well, let me -- that's a huge question. So this is Mark and I'll kick that off, ask Todd to make some comments here. Let me start kind of from the beginning. I think a lot of this conundrum the world finds itself in today regarding sort of the economic environment really relates to the collapse in oil prices that occurred really last year. And that collapse in oil prices kind of rippled through so many raw materials, petrochemical industry in a broad sense. And of course, that had huge impacts and ripple effects back on ethylene in China, the MTO in China and ultimately methanol. So you had all these dynamics that kind of rolled into that. So we saw weakness and we saw slowdown really as we ended the fourth quarter. The back couple of months of the fourth quarter in the chain business, we saw some settling with that. And in that process of settling, we think that, that's, I wouldn't say run its course, but it seems to be kind of normalizing now at the level. And we think we're going to see that start to recover as we get into the end of this quarter and start the next quarter going forward. The broad dynamics are of that is it was -- and Todd, again I'll ask you to give some more color on this in a second. But really is around China and the impact in China that we saw, the pricing we saw in China. And in many ways, it was a little bit contained in that region of the world. So we see and we feel that we have -- and I'll talk about this more when we talk about earnings, our earnings forecast. We think with this business is going to step down a little bit this year. But we feel very good about the fundamentals of this business and the ongoing earning power to this business in this range of around $1 billion. So Todd, do you want to provide more clarity perhaps on just what you saw throughout...

正確的。好吧，讓我——這是一個很大的問題。我是馬克，我將開始討論這個問題，請托德在這裡發表一些評論。讓我從頭開始講。我認為當今世界面臨的許多經濟環境難題實際上與去年的油價暴跌有關。油價暴跌對許多原料產業、廣義的石化產業產生了連鎖影響。當然，這對中國的乙烯、中國的 MTO 以及最終的甲醇產生了巨大的影響和連鎖反應。所以你就擁有了所有這些融入其中的動力。因此，在第四季度結束時，我們看到了疲軟和放緩。在第四季後幾個月，我們看到連鎖業務有所改善。在這個解決的過程中，我們認為，我不會說它會順其自然，但現在它似乎在某種程度上正在正常化。我們認為，隨著本季末和下一季的開始，我們將看到經濟開始復甦。整體動態就是這樣——托德，我再次請你稍後對此進行更詳細的說明。但實際上，這是圍繞中國以及我們看到的中國的影響、我們在中國看到的定價。從很多方面來看，它在那個地區都受到一定程度的限制。所以我們看到並且感覺到我們已經——當我們談論收益、我們的收益預測時，我會更多地談論這一點。我們認為今年這項業務將會略為下降。但我們對該業務的基本面以及該業務在 10 億美元左右的持續盈利能力感到非常樂觀。那麼托德，你是否想更清楚地說明你所看到的一切......

Well, just on the note about global capacity utilization, so the macro fundamentals, we believe, are still in play. That is that when you look at the diversity of end uses across that, acetyl is growing around 3% per year. Stack that up with the capacity picture, we still see those macro utilization rates in about the net 80% range across the whole system. So what Mark was describing is this end of the year, instantaneous utilization rate change mainly on slower demand, particularly in China. So as that sorts itself through as we get into first part of 2019, you kind of march through the quarter, particularly after Chinese New Year, we think that will bump up those instantaneous utilization rates into -- back up into the 80% range. And that will allow some price recovery over the course of the year.

嗯，就全球產能利用率而言，我們認為宏觀基本面仍在發揮作用。也就是說，當您查看最終用途的多樣性時，乙醯基每年的增長速度約為 3%。將其與容量圖結合起來，我們仍然看到整個系統的宏觀利用率約為 80%。因此，馬克所描述的是，今年年底瞬時利用率的變化主要是由於需求放緩，尤其是在中國。因此，當我們進入 2019 年上半年時，隨著這個問題逐漸得到解決，整個季度，特別是在農曆新年之後，我們認為瞬時利用率將回升至 80% 左右。這將使價格在今年內有所回升。

And just as a follow-up, the decision to take the capacity out of Asia as you ramp up new capacity in the U.S., is the math effectively that the savings you're going to get from doing that and the optimization more than offsets whatever sort of the EBITDA opportunity was there? And then obviously, you also get to take some capacity out of the market, which might help the earnings power of all your other assets. Is that the right way to think about it?

作為後續問題，當您在美國增加新產能時，決定將產能撤出亞洲，這樣做是否有效地計算您從中獲得的節省和優化是否足以抵消現有的任何 EBITDA 機會？顯然，你還可以從市場中獲得一些產能，這可能有助於提高你所有其他資產的獲利能力。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. I think what we're trying to convey here in a big sense -- and it's part of sort of the ongoing debate about whether people are giving value back to our shareholders for this business. But we can -- we're -- to be honest, we're the only company in the world that can take and make these investments at very modest level, get this kind of high return on productivity only. So you don't have to have a view that the market's going to grow or the demand is needed for us to add yet another $100 million to our foundation. So what we think that foundation are based on in the business is plus $100 million for that through these kinds of moves. And be it that or be it the VAM investments, that's what you see. So this is a way for us to, we think, keep balance within the -- what we feel will be the demand picture as we have at that period of time with plenty of upside capacity to tackle that in a more EBITDA and return-friendly fashion. But...

是的。我認為我們在這裡試圖傳達的是一個廣泛的意義——它是關於人們是否為這項業務向股東回饋價值的持續爭論的一部分。但我們可以——我們——說實話，我們是世界上唯一一家能夠以非常適度的水平進行這些投資，並獲得如此高生產力回報的公司。因此，您不必認為市場將會成長，或者我們需要再向基金會注入 1 億美元。因此，我們認為，透過這些舉措，我們的業務基礎將再增加 1 億美元。無論是上述情況還是 VAM 投資，這就是您所看到的。因此，我們認為，這是我們保持平衡的一種方式——我們認為在那個時期，我們有足夠的上行能力以更有利於 EBITDA 和回報的方式來解決這個問題。但...

Yes, absolutely. It's about always looking for another series of value creation steps that adds to the foundational level of earnings in acetyl. So this is the next wave that we're embarking on, so bring significant production. Ultimately, to Clear Lake, we have advantaged integration backwards to methanol, soon to be in carbon monoxide when that acquisition clears. Also we have other sources of CO there. First, we have the VAM downstream usage there on Clear Lake, just expanded that unit by 150,000 tons. So think very good integration benefit, a huge range of operating rate flexibility more so than we have today particularly in the Asian side. So that helps us. And to Mark's point, it's largely a productivity measure when we look out on this. So it's a nice combination of value addition steps.

是的，絕對是。它總是在尋找另一系列的價值創造步驟，以增加乙醯基的收益基礎水準。這是我們正在踏上的下一波浪潮，將帶來顯著的成果。最終，對於 Clear Lake 來說，我們擁有向甲醇整合的優勢，當收購完成後，很快就會進入一氧化碳領域。那裡還有其他 CO 來源。首先，我們在 Clear Lake 有 VAM 下游使用，剛剛將單位擴大了 15 萬噸。因此，我認為整合效益非常好，營運率彈性範圍比我們今天擁有的更大，特別是在亞洲方面。這對我們有幫助。正如馬克所說，從我們的角度來看，這在很大程度上是一種生產力衡量標準。所以這是增值步驟的完美組合。

And welcome back to Chuck.

歡迎查克回來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, just on Engineered Materials, can you provide a little more color on the 2% operating profit growth in the quarter? Why was it so light? And looking forward to '19, maybe expectations for that business in 2019.

馬克，僅就工程材料而言，您能否進一步說明本季 2% 的營業利潤成長？為什麼這麼輕？展望 2019 年，或許對 2019 年的業務也抱持期望。

Yes, I'll start with the last one. We expect that business to grow -- kind of as it has grown 10% kind of earnings contribution year-over-year. So you plug that into your model. If you look at the fourth quarter, we did see slowdown in this business as well. We were out there pushing pricing a lot to tee up what we felt was a better return for many of our polymers as we entered 2019. And we're doing that in the face of the destocking that was naturally occurring for the reasons that I listed for that. So the world -- what we really saw here for the quarter is we saw good uptick in both volume and pricing to be offset a lot by extraordinary costs that rolled through our system. From inventory costs that we had as we worked down some of our inventory, extraordinary cost with logistics and things like really impacted it in a negative way. So it's really a more cost-driven reduction versus any kind of falloff in the base business.

是的，我從最後一個開始。我們預計該業務將會成長——其獲利貢獻年增了 10%。所以你將其插入到你的模型中。如果你看一下第四季度，我們確實也看到這項業務的放緩。進入 2019 年，我們一直在推動定價，以便為我們的多種聚合物帶來更好的回報。我們這樣做是為了應對由於我所列出的原因而自然發生的去庫存現象。因此，我們在本季真正看到的是，銷售量和價格都有了良好的上漲，但這被我們系統中產生的額外成本所抵消。從我們處理部分庫存時的庫存成本來看，物流方面的額外成本等確實對其產生了負面影響。因此，這實際上是一種成本驅動的削減，而不是基礎業務的任何衰退。

Got it. I'm sorry?

知道了。對不起？

No, sorry, David. This is Scott Richardson. I just want to add there. I think it's important also to remember the project wins that we had in the year were right on track with what we've said. So we finished north of 3,200 projects during the year. So the business continues to be on track for those controllable factors that we stated. And we're very clear about the importance of driving price as raws moved up during 2018 and we're very successful in doing that. And that should yield benefits from a margin perspective moving in to 2019, which can lead to the growth that Mark talked about, around 10%.

不，對不起，大衛。這是史考特·理查森。我只是想補充一下。我認為同樣重要的是要記住，我們今年贏得的項目完全符合我們所說的。因此，我們在這一年完成了 3,200 多個專案。因此，業務將繼續按照我們所述的可控因素正常運作。我們非常清楚，隨著 2018 年原物料價格上漲，推動價格上漲的重要性，而且我們在這方面做得非常成功。從利潤率的角度來看，這應該會在 2019 年帶來好處，從而實現馬克所說的 10% 左右的成長。

Very good. And Mark, just now you reaffirmed the 2020 target, $12 a share, which now implies about 14% EPS growth in '20 versus '19. Can you probably provide a bridge, given that's a little bit of a robust target, given a pretty lackluster macro backdrop?

非常好。馬克，剛才你重申了 2020 年的目標，即每股 12 美元，這意味著 2020 年每股收益將比 2019 年增長約 14%。考慮到這是一個有點強大的目標，並且在相當黯淡的宏觀背景下，您能否提供一座橋樑？

Yes. Let me just -- there's -- in the fundamental sense, if I look at it versus where we think we'll end this year, that's probably another $300 million or so of upside. In a real simple sense, we expect as we're ending this year and starting next to be moving back into plus $100 million kind of range for the AC business. We think that $1 billion, $950 million to $1 billion, is pretty much what is in the cards for us there. We expect we're going to add another $100 million incrementally in EM as we go -- as we move into -- from '19 to '20. In that process, we'll have, of course, in AC, which is essentially to establish our basic strategy -- I mean, in acetate tow, our basic strategy. That leaves a balance of the last time we were [leasing] $50 million that's from M&A that we've got our eyes set on. And the other $50 million is productivity.

是的。讓我從根本上來說，如果我將其與我們認為今年年底的水平進行比較，那可能還會有 3 億美元左右的上漲空間。從簡單意義上講，我們預計，到今年年底和明年年初，空調業務的營收將回到 1 億美元以上的水平。我們認為，10 億美元，9.5 億美元到 10 億美元，基本上就是我們能拿到的金額。我們預計，隨著 2019 年至 2020 年的發展，我們將在新興市場逐步增加 1 億美元。在這個過程中，我們當然會在 AC 中製定我們的基本策略 - 我的意思是，在醋酸纖維中，我們的基本策略。這樣，我們上次租賃的餘額就有 5000 萬美元，這些錢來自我們一直關注的併購。另外 5000 萬美元是生產力。

The next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, when you think about the Acetyl Chain near term, I just want to make sure I understand. Can you maybe walk us through how those utilization rates went through the fourth quarter? And then I think I got the feel that it's under 80% now. And what could get that above 80% as we head into the second half of the year? Just want to make sure it's more demand-related than supply-related.

馬克，當你考慮到乙醯鏈的近期表現時，我只是想確保我理解。您能否向我們介紹一下第四季的使用率？然後我覺得現在它已經低於 80% 了。那麼，當我們進入下半年時，我們怎樣才能讓這比例超過 80% 呢？只是想確保它與需求的關係比與供應的關係更密切。

Yes. Well, I'll ask Todd to give specific numbers here. But in a broad sense, it's not supply-related at all. The slowdown in China was just a slowdown. And so we saw industry utilization rates across the board in China well beyond AC drop. End result, actually we saw less activity in terms of Clean Sky initiatives and stuff because actually there wasn't nearly as much industrial production going on as you would normally have. So that in the fundamental sense is what happened. And I think we dropped into the very low 80s. Now whether it was -- whether we touched the 70% or not, we don't know, but certainly stayed on 3 to 4 turns, I think, on capacity utilization on a short-term basis. We also believe that, that's largely run its course. The business seems to have settled in. And this has happened in a very short period of time. That seems to have settled in. And we have a fair degree of confidence that as Chinese New Year ends and some of these other problems get cleared up, we're going to see it march right back up. But Todd, do you want to maybe give some specific numbers?

是的。好吧，我會請托德在這裡給出具體的數字。但從廣義上講，這與供應根本無關。中國經濟放緩僅是放緩而已。因此，我們看到中國各產業的利用率都大幅下降。最終結果是，我們實際上看到清潔天空計劃等方面的活動減少了，因為實際上工業生產並不像平常那​​樣多。從根本上來說，這就是發生的事情。我認為我們跌到了 80 年代初。現在我們不知道我們是否達到了 70%，但我認為短期內產能利用率肯定會保持在 3 到 4 倍左右。我們也相信，這基本上已經走到了盡頭。生意似乎已經穩定下來了。而這發生在很短的時間內。看來這已經解決了。我們相當有信心，隨著農曆新年的結束和其他一些問題的解決，我們將看到經濟回升。但是托德，你想給一些具體的數字嗎？

I mean, I think if you see the capacity at 15 million tons of global demand, 18 million tons of capacity. And that's about 83%. And these are numbers that we talked about before. VAM is 6 million tons of demand, 7 million tons of supply, that's about 85% utilization. We think those big macro numbers are still in play. There have been little to no additions to that supply base. So this is really, as Mark described, an end of the year, first part of '19 demand slowdown for various reasons, oil prices falling, methanol prices falling, sentiment, trade, fill in the blank. Now that can quickly reverse itself when customers start buying again. And this is particularly acute in China. It's really what we're describing here. If we look at our order books elsewhere in the world, in Europe, in Americas and then also when we extend beyond just the acetic acid discussion into vinyl acetate or emulsion, order books are actually pretty good at the start of the year. So this is really a short China out in the near term. And that really speaks to that instantaneous dip under the mid-80% range, pick a number, probably high 70s or something for a few weeks here at the end of the year, start of the year. But that, again once inventories dry out, once demand kicks back in, that can quickly start to come back into balance, which we expect it will.

我的意思是，我認為如果你看到全球需求產能為 1500 萬噸，那麼產能就是 1800 萬噸。這大約是 83%。這些是我們之前討論過的數字。VAM 需求量為 600 萬噸，供應量為 700 萬噸，利用率約 85%。我們認為這些宏觀數字仍然發揮作用。該供應基地幾乎沒有增加。因此，正如馬克所描述的，這確實是年底，2019 年上半年需求放緩，原因多種多樣，包括油價下跌、甲醇價格下跌、情緒、交易等。現在，當顧客再次開始購買時，這種情況可以迅速逆轉。而這種情況在中國尤其嚴重。這確實就是我們在這裡所描述的。如果我們看看世界其他地方的訂單，例如歐洲、美洲，然後當我們將討論範圍從乙酸擴展到醋酸乙烯酯或乳液時，我們會發現年初的訂單實際上相當不錯。因此，這實際上意味著短期內中國將面臨困境。這實際上說明了在年底或年初的幾週內，該數字可能會瞬間跌破 80% 左右的區間，例如 70 多度左右。但是，一旦庫存枯竭，一旦需求回升，情況就會迅速恢復平衡，我們預計情況將會如此。

Great. And then shifting gears to EM, the new projects continue to roll. And what type of organic growth do you think EM could generate this year? And then is the pipeline for acquisition still pretty robust to build on that as you go forward?

偉大的。然後轉向 EM，新專案繼續推進。您認為新興市場今年能夠實現什麼類型的有機成長？那麼，隨著您未來的發展，收購通路是否仍相當穩健？

Yes. Mike, we expect to get back up into the mid- to high single-digit type volume growth as we work our way into 2019. Now Q1, we think, will be a little bit softer on that. But we do expect to be able to grow. So we may be in the low single-digit year-over-year growth level in Q1. But as we work our way into the balance of the year, as we see this destocking work itself out, we think that will recover. We continue to be very -- we see the pipeline being very favorable for us. And we saw that play out even towards the end of the year as our growth that, for example, in automotive was around 3%, whereas the industry declined. And so the controllable projects and the things we continue to work with our customers are there. And that's going to get us back into what we think is going to be really good, positive volume growth numbers in 2019.

是的。麥克，我們預計，隨著 2019 年的到來，銷量將恢復到中高個位數成長。我們認為，第一季的情況會稍微緩和一些。但我們確實期望能夠成長。因此，第一季的年成長水準可能處於低個位數。但隨著我們進入今年平衡階段，隨著我們看到去庫存化進程逐漸顯現，我們認為情況將會復甦。我們繼續非常——我們看到這條管道對我們非常有利。我們看到，即使在年底，我們的成長率仍然達到 3% 左右，而整個工業領域卻在下滑。因此，可控的專案和我們繼續與客戶合作的事情都存在。這將使我們回到我們認為的真正好的水平，即 2019 年銷量實現正增長。

The next question comes from Robert Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特‧庫爾特 (Robert Koort)。

Mark, can you talk about how much capital you had to spend or you did to spend on the syngas plant in Clear Lake? Is that a future strategy to get back with integrated? I guess, I don't see the merits of that. But if you have better uses of your capital, I just want to...

馬克，你能談談你在 Clear Lake 合成氣工廠上花了多少資金嗎？這是未來回歸整合的策略嗎？我想，我看不出這樣做有什麼好處。但如果你有更好的資金用途，我只想...

The answer to your question, I'm not going to give you an exact number. But it will be public before too long. But that's a legacy asset that actually Celanese owned years ago. It's kind of embedded in our asset. And of course, we had the opportunity to acquire that. When you look at in terms of reference to a new unit, it's probably -- it's a fraction of the cost of a new unit. So it presents very favorable economics for us as we look at expanding acetic acid production there. So that's how it plugs into it.

對於你的問題的答案，我不會給你一個確切的數字。但不久之後它就會公開。但實際上，這是塞拉尼斯多年前就擁有的遺留資產。它有點像是嵌入到我們的資產中。當然，我們有機會獲得它。當你從新單位的角度來看時，它可能只是新單位成本的一小部分。因此，當我們考慮擴大那裡的乙酸生產時，這對我們來說具有非常有利的經濟效益。這就是它插入的方式。

So that unit wasn't supplying you currently?

那麼該單位目前沒有向您供貨嗎？

It was. But Air Products now -- Linde is building a new unit. So old Linde had lost their -- had lost that contract with us.

是的。但現在空氣產品公司—林德公司正在建立一個新的部門。所以老林德已經失去了——失去了與我們的合約。

And you guys obviously got more aggressive in the market. You talked about being opportunistic, buying stock at about $100 in the fourth quarter. Should we presume, given your optimism into '19, second half of '19 and '20, that you should be buying quite a bit of stock here in the first part of the year as well?

你們顯然在市場上變得更加積極主動了。您談到了機會主義，在第四季度以約 100 美元的價格購買股票。鑑於您對 2019 年、2019 年下半年和 2020 年的樂觀態度，我們是否可以推測您也應該在今年上半年購買大量股票？

Yes. We have $700 million still available to us between what we've promised you guys we'd buy and what's authorized to buy. So we will continue to be opportunistic with that.

是的。在我們承諾的購買量和授權購買量之間，我們仍有 7 億美元可用。因此，我們將繼續抓住機會。

The next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, back to the $100 million sort of productivity boost as part of your acetic acid network adjustments, can you sort of break that out between production, savings and logistics? And is it just not as important going forward to be as diversified from a feedstock standpoint?

我想，回到你們乙酸網絡調整中 1 億美元生產力提升的問題，您能否將其分解為生產、節省和物流三個部分？從原料角度來看，未來多樣化是不是沒那麼重要了？

Yes, we think it is very important to be diversified from a feedstock standpoint. The economics associated with the asset bases that we have in the U.S. and in this next incremental investment in there is stunningly good. And it's so good that it overcomes disadvantage you would normally see in logistics and things like that. So it's a unique opportunity for us to restructure, reconfigure, as Todd said, and drive just on constant volume and net lower cost base of approximately $100 million. And the important message for you in that is you can present value that back today if you like to do that because it is a set $100 million and it's not dependent on acetic acid pricing or those sorts of things to achieve. So that's the message, the thematic that we're trying to get across. If we can take steps to increase and lift that floor, that foundation, whatever you may happen to feel it is and still position ourselves in it as this business grows, this capacity utilization tightens up, which we fully expect to happen, to have yet again more capacity available to drive the market around the world.

是的，我們認為從原料角度多樣化非常重要。我們在美國擁有的資產基礎以及接下來在美國進行的增量投資所帶來的經濟效益非常好。它非常好，克服了通常在物流和類似方面會遇到的劣勢。因此，正如托德所說，這對我們來說是一個獨特的機會，可以進行重組、重新配置，並在恆定產量和約 1 億美元的淨低成本基礎上實現成長。其中對你來說重要的訊息是，如果你願意的話，你可以在今天呈現它的價值，因為它是固定的 1 億美元，並且不依賴乙酸定價或諸如此類的事情來實現。這就是我們試圖傳達的訊息和主題。如果我們能夠採取措施來增加和提升這個底線、這個基礎，無論你感覺到它是什麼，並且隨著業務的增長我們仍然將自己定位在其中，那麼產能利用率就會收緊，我們完全有信心這種情況會發生，從而再次擁有更多的產能來推動全球市場。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just, Mark, in your prepared comments, you mentioned some of your U.S. customers seemed a bit more optimistic looking out to 2019. Can you sort of expand on that? And then maybe generally, can you touch on Europe as well?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，馬克，在你準備好的評論中，你提到一些美國客戶似乎對 2019 年更加樂觀。能詳細闡述嗎？那麼整體來說，您能談談歐洲嗎？

Yes. I think when you really -- when you talk to, as we do -- we're privileged to have a great customer base working with us, works all the time. I think they in many ways are shocked or surprised with sort of the global anxiety that exists as we are. I'll say our U.S. customers, where everybody's gone through a little bit of a stutter step here in the fourth quarter, on average are quite optimistic. They don't -- they see the fundamentals as being very strong, see the consumers largely in areas where we are still in there. We've lived through a rationalization and slowdown and all the capacity and things like that. But when you look forward, they're not expecting that to continue, expect those things to reverse a bit. So there's a good bit of enthusiasm there. And as Todd said, the order patterns seem to reaffirm that, what we're seeing right now. If you go to Asia, I'd say it's the same thing. China went through this stutter step. A lot of it is tied to anxiety over trade that's there as well as normal seasonality, which has been missing there. So they're sitting there waiting for Chinese New Year to end and with an anticipation that somehow we'll find a way to moderate some of the anxiety to trade. So they're not overly pessimistic. And we look at fundamentals there, we think in the case of, if look at like -- at auto which is probably the most public example, we're expecting that business to not slide further but to actually rebound a bit as we entered this year. So our Chinese customers are not overly anxious or overly frightful right now. I'd roll that into -- if I look at Europe, and so in Europe, we talk largely Germany, there's a fair amount of pessimism there. And it's the anxiety over the exit of -- Brexit. Brexit is an anxiety point. I think political pressures in country are an anxiety point. And they also feel like they've been impacted somewhat by Chinese trade. So in the Rhine River, we see all the things. And I think that we see more pessimism on average out of Europe. And that's very German-centric when I say that because most of our -- or a lot of our big customers are in Germany. So I think what we see is we see Asia in some ways leading us out a bit, leading the world out of this kind of anxiety. We don't think the U.S. is going to be impacted very much. And we think as Asia starts to recover, you'll see Europe stabilize and start to recover as well.

是的。我認為，當您真正與我們交談時，我們很榮幸能擁有龐大的客戶群與我們合作，並一直努力工作。我認為他們在很多方面都對我們所存在的全球焦慮感到震驚或驚訝。我想說的是，我們的美國客戶，雖然第四季大家都經歷了一些困難，但整體來說還是比較樂觀的。他們不這麼認為——他們認為基本面非常強勁，認為消費者主要集中在我們仍在的地區。我們經歷了合理化、經濟放緩、以及所有產能下降等事件。但當你展望未來時，他們並不期望這種情況會持續下去，而是希望這些事情會發生一些逆轉。因此那裡有相當多的熱情。正如托德所說，訂單模式似乎再次證實了我們現在所看到的情況。如果你去亞洲，我會說情況也是一樣的。中國就經歷過這個磕磕絆絆的階段。這在很大程度上與貿易焦慮​​以及正常的季節性有關，而這種季節性一直缺失。因此，他們坐在那裡等待農曆新年結束，並期待我們能找到某種方法來緩解一些貿易焦慮。所以他們並不太悲觀。我們看一下基本面，我們認為，就汽車業而言，這可能是最公開的例子，我們預計該行業的業務不會進一步下滑，而是在今年初會略有反彈。因此，我們的中國客戶現在並不會過度焦慮或過度恐懼。我會把它納入——如果我看看歐洲，那麼在歐洲，我們主要談論德國，那裡有相當多的悲觀情緒。這是人們對英國脫歐的焦慮。英國脫歐是一個令人焦慮的點。我認為國家的政治壓力是一個令人焦慮的點。他們也覺得自己受到了中國貿易的某種影響。所以在萊茵河，我們看到了所有的事物。我認為，歐洲人的平均悲觀情緒更為濃厚。我這樣說是非常以德國為中心的，因為我們的大多數——或者說我們的許多大客戶都在德國。所以我認為我們看到的是亞洲在某種程度上引領我們走出了這種焦慮。我們認為美國不會受到太大影響。我們認為，隨著亞洲開始復甦，歐洲也將穩定下來並開始復甦。

The next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

A question just around the strategy in acetic acid coming back to you. I think the permit you filed last month showed a $425 million capital tag. So one, is that a decent number? And two, how should we think about that impacting the overall capital spend to Celanese over the next 3 years?

我又回到你這裡問一個有關乙酸策略的問題。我認為您上個月提交的許可證上顯示的資本標籤為 4.25 億美元。那麼，這是一個合適的數字嗎？第二，我們該如何看待這對塞拉尼斯未來三年的整體資本支出的影響？

Yes. And it's in the range of the right number. That's what I would say. And those are numbers we're required to put in preliminary kind of numbers when we present the sort of permit application. So yes, it's directionally correct. I'm sorry, what was the second?

是的。並且它在正確數字的範圍內。這就是我要說的。當我們提交許可證申請時，我們需要輸入這些數字作為初步數字。所以是的，它的方向是正確的。抱歉，第二個是什麼？

Just the capital.

只是首都。

Yes. So $350 million to $400 million this coming year, I think, in CapEx, moving up as we get out into '20 and '21, where you'll see most of this being spent. So yes, we'll be moving above $400 million, I think, as we enter into the next several years beyond this year.

是的。因此，我認為，今年的資本支出將在 3.5 億至 4 億美元之間，隨著我們進入 20 年和 21 年，這一數字將會上升，你會看到其中大部分都被花掉了。所以是的，我認為，隨著我們進入今年之後的未來幾年，我們的收入將超過 4 億美元。

Okay. And then in the U.S., you're still net short methanol even though you're getting some from your JV partner. As you bring on this acetic acid, does that drive you to want to own more methanol? What's the strategy integration there? And the syngas plant, will you be net short syngas in the U.S. even if you were short methanol?

好的。然後在美國，即使你從合資夥伴那裡獲得了一些甲醇，你仍然處於淨短缺狀態。當您引入這種乙酸時，是否會促使您想要擁有更多的甲醇？那裡的策略整合是什麼樣的？還有合成氣工廠，即使你們缺甲醇，你們在美國也會淨缺合成氣嗎？

I'll start this. And Todd, you hop into this as well, please. We have a wonderful partnership with Mitsui with methanol. They're the world's most efficient methanol plant and highly regarded as such. I'll let Todd talk about the options there that the guys are looking at to expand and to grow. On syngas, it's a really good fit with the first phase of capacity we announced with this expansion of acetic acid. So Todd, do you want to...

我來開始吧。托德，你也請參與其中。我們與三井在甲醇領域有著良好的合作關係。它們是世界上最高效的甲醇工廠，並因此受到高度評價。我會讓托德談論這些人正在考慮的擴張和成長的選擇。就合成氣而言，它與我們宣布的醋酸擴建第一階段的產能非常契合。那麼托德，你想…

Yes, the run rate -- operating rate out of the methanol unit has exceeded original design capacity. So we're pleased with that progress. So that's contributing. We're still a buyer, a net buyer. So that remains unchanged. We are looking with our partner, looking at options in conjunction with the just announced reconfiguration and expansion in the U.S. for methanol options looking ahead. Nothing to say at this point. But that's just a part of our ongoing work together with our partner, Mitsui. So we will look at options there. And it could actually take the shape in 2 different phases. But more to come on that one.

是的，甲醇裝置的運作率已經超過了原來的設計產能。所以我們對這項進展感到滿意。所以這是有貢獻的。我們仍然是買家，淨買家。所以這一點保持不變。我們正在與合作夥伴一起，結合剛剛宣布的美國甲醇重組和擴張計劃，尋找未來的選擇。目前沒什麼好說的。但這只是我們與合作夥伴三井正在進行的工作的一部分。因此我們將研究那裡的選擇。它實際上可以分成兩個不同的階段成形。但關於這一點，還有更多內容。

On your CO question, we were not integrated before. So we source CO from our partners there. Mark mentioned Linde, of course as well as their product. The other new partner will be Praxair going forward, who's constructing a unit as we speak. So this is a step into integration through a very unique opportunity that presented itself as a part of the Linde-Praxair merger. It's a small step forward but also complementary as we think about the longer-term plan for the expanded acetic acid footprint in Clear Lake. So it fits to that integration. And methanol is good news so far and more to come on that as we investigate alternatives.

關於您的 CO 問題，我們之前並未整合。因此我們從那裡的合作夥伴那裡獲取二氧化碳。當然，馬克提到了林德以及他們的產品。另一個新合作夥伴將是普萊克斯 (Praxair)，該公司目前正在建立一個部門。因此，這是透過林德-普萊克斯合併過程中出現的非常獨特的機會邁向整合的一步。這是向前邁出的一小步，但當我們考慮擴大 Clear Lake 乙酸足跡的長期計劃時，這也是一種補充。所以它適合這種整合。到目前為止，甲醇還是一個好消息，隨著我們對替代品的研究，還會有更多好消息傳來。

The next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

With regard to the acetyl expansion and the economics on it, it looks like it's pretty compelling. At the same time, should we be reading anything into the need to necessarily close in the Asian capacity with regard to how you're thinking about the long-term growth in that region, et cetera, because it's certainly an area that you've been growing out historically versus cutting out capacity?

就乙醯基擴張及其經濟效益而言，它看起來相當引人注目。同時，我們是否應該從您對該地區長期成長的看法等方面來解讀亞洲產能必然會減少的必要性，因為從歷史上看，這肯定是您一直在發展而不是削減產能的一個領域？

No, I think this is a reconfiguring. It doesn't forgo -- it doesn't imply anything in terms of our beliefs around growth in Asia, if that makes sense. It's a way that from an aesthetic sense, you can reconfigure and give yourself more optionality. And yes, so we remain very bullish on Asia. And we remain bullish with our option needs with the assets we have there and other assets we're going to put there in the future. So I don't -- I wouldn't look at it that way at all, John. It's simply a step-change to up our base level of earnings in the company and give ourselves more optionality in the future.

不，我認為這是重新配置。它並沒有放棄——它並不意味著我們對亞洲成長的信念有任何改變，如果這說得通的話。從美學角度來看，這是一種可以重新配置並賦予自己更多可選性的方式。是的，所以我們仍然非常看好亞洲。我們仍然對我們在那裡擁有的資產以及未來將在那裡投入的其他資產的選擇需求持樂觀態度。所以我不——我根本不會這麼看待這件事，約翰。這只是一個逐步的改變，以提高我們在公司的基本收入水平，並為我們自己在未來提供更多的選擇權。

Got it. And then just a question on the longer-term outlook for -- in China in particular around some of the environmental issues. I know that was -- it's been a hot topic certainly last year. It seems to have cooled off a little bit. But are you starting to hear anything? Or are there any changes in terms of how to think about some of the potential capacity closures as we look to kind of 2019 and beyond?

知道了。然後我想問關於長期前景的問題——特別是關於中國的一些環境問題。我知道——這無疑是去年的熱門話題。好像稍微冷卻了一點。但你開始聽到什麼了嗎？或者，當我們展望 2019 年及以後時，對於如何看待一些潛在的產能關閉，有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, it's -- and we keep track of this continuously. The earlier policy, I guess, reveals or updates that came out of Shandong and Yunnan provinces, we're studying those. We don't see a direct impact into the acetyl business so far in terms of specific units that would need to come out. There's actually one VAM unit in Anhui province that we think that's got a circle around it that might be removed. That's about a 100,000-ton unit. We just saw some news come out from Hubei province. And this is in conjunction with the Yangtze River changes, so the proximity to the river. So Hubei province issued chemical plant relocation list, I think, on December 13. And there's like 480 plants that are mentioned there that are on the list for review. And so it continues. And it's a real, real subject. It continues to be drawn out. And information published from respective provinces, we look at those. And as we see direct line to specific operating units, we will update as we go.

是的——我們會持續追蹤此事。我想，早先的政策揭示或更新了山東省和雲南省推出的政策，我們正在研究這些政策。就需要退出的特定部門而言，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對乙醯業務產生直接影響。事實上，我們認為安徽省有一個 VAM 單元，周圍有一個圓圈，可能會被移除。那大約是10萬噸的單位。我們剛剛看到湖北省傳來一些消息。這是與長江的變化相伴而生的，因此靠近河流。所以我記得湖北省在12月13日發布了化工廠搬遷名單。其中提到的待審查植物約有 480 種。事情就這樣繼續下去。這是一個真實存在的話題。它繼續被拖延。我們會查看各省發布的資訊。當我們看到與特定營運單位的直接聯繫時，我們會隨時更新。

The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Mark, you go in detail to describe how MTO production, how it connects C1 and C2 chemistry and the impact in China. And you were able to increase your acetyl spreads over methanol. I'm wondering, did you flex down your production in China or Singapore to do that? And if not, what exactly did you do to increase your margins?

馬克，您詳細描述了MTO的生產方式、它如何連接C1和C2化學以及對中國的影響。並且你能夠增加乙醯基在甲醇上的擴散。我想知道，為了實現這一目標，您是否減少了在中國或新加坡的生產？如果沒有，您具體做了什麼來增加利潤？

Well, I think really what it's just -- and maybe I've spent too much time on that in the written script. But I want people to understand how the economics work. But I also want to make a point that as you -- from a legacy point of view, there certainly was a strong tie between methanol price in China and acetic acid price in China. As you go up in capacity utilization, that starts to diminish. And you start to see it break away. And then as you look at the global optionality that we have and the way that Todd Elliott and company have run this business globally, we're able to find ways to further disconnect those 2 things. So a lot of independent actions rather than disconnect, including buying and reselling, including how we operate our units around the world. So I wouldn't read anything special in that. I look at what exactly we did for that. We did the same thing we always do, which is drive optionality to create the most value for our shareholders.

嗯，我認為實際上這只是——也許我在劇本中花了太多時間在這上面。但我希望人們了解經濟學是如何運作的。但我也想指出一點，從歷史角度來看，中國的甲醇價格和醋酸價格之間確實有著密切的關聯。隨著產能利用率的提高，這種情況開始減少。然後你就會看到它開始脫離。然後，當您看到我們擁有的全球選擇性以及托德·埃利奧特和公司在全球範圍內經營這項業務的方式時，我們就能找到進一步斷開這兩件事的方法。因此，許多獨立行動而不是斷開連接，包括購買和轉售，包括我們如何在世界各地運作我們的單位。所以我不會讀到任何特別的東西。我看看我們到底做了什麼。我們做了和往常一樣的事情，就是推動選擇性，為股東創造最大的價值。

Okay. And then secondly, Mark, you guide that Celanese has really good read into China with your business intelligence there. And you say that weakness was due to geopolitical issues and not fundamental. So in your mind, at what point do the geopolitical issues become fundamental issues? Do you care to comment on that?

好的。其次，馬克，您指出塞拉尼斯透過您在中國的商業智慧對中國有著非常深入的了解。您說這種疲軟是由於地緣政治問題而不是根本原因造成的。那麼在您看來，地緣政治問題在什麼時候會變成根本問題？您願意對此發表評論嗎？

Well, I don't know how to quite answer that question. I guess, when you go through a period of growth like the world has gone through the last several years, and certainly Celanese has gone through the last years, you develop a behavior mechanism. And so that behavior is that you covet inventory. You do things like that because the world is kind of on fire. And if somebody says to the crowd, to the masses, say, "Not so fast, pump the breaks," the brakes get pumped. And when that happens, you have a ripple effect that rolls through. And that ripple effect has a lasting feeling to it, a lasting feeling being 3, 4 or 5 months. But it's kind of the stack-up of inventories, the production planning process, delivery cycle all gets interrupted. And that's kind of what we're in today. So I think when I say when you pump the brakes, what does it mean? It means a couple of quarters of this stuff is kind of what it means. Just because of the -- again, the lag time of cycles that you get into. So I think the geopolitical pressure has happened several of those cycles but really just set into some -- like a large order or something like that. It takes a lot more than that really to drive our country and our economy into negative growth levels. So our view is that this has been just a pump the brakes brought on by different levels of anxiety. People in China are quite concerned about the -- they're quite concerned about the relationship with the U.S. They're not so concerned about trade. They think that's just an indication of our relationship. So our relationship with China needs to get better. And I see a lot of signs that, that's starting to happen in spite of some of the political and legal actions that are underway today. I mean, I think fundamentally, it's a little bit better. And hopefully, the trade this week will add to that. In the case of Europe, I think it's a little bit more -- it's more of a question of what's going on with -- in trade relative to the EU and Britain. Because we just don't know the uncertainty level to that ripple effect of that and whether it's going to have a bigger play throughout Europe. So my belief is we pump the brakes for a couple of months. I don't think in this economy oil price to drop. I don't think -- I think we'll see ourselves sort of come out of that. There's no reason fundamentally for it to change. In our way, it stays likely as if the political situation gets worse versus getting better. I think it's going to get better.

嗯，我不知道該如何回答這個問題。我想，當你經歷像世界過去幾年所經歷的成長期時，你就會形成一種行為機制，當然塞拉尼斯在過去幾年也經歷了這樣的成長期。所以這種行為就是你覬覦庫存。你這樣做是因為世界正處於火熱之中。如果有人對人群、對群眾說，“別那麼快，踩剎車”，剎車就會被踩下。當這種情況發生時，就會產生連鎖反應。而且這種連鎖反應具有持久的感覺，這種持久的感覺可以持續 3、4 或 5 個月。但這會導致庫存堆積，生產計劃流程、交付週期都被中斷。這就是我們今天所處的境況。所以我想當我說踩剎車時，這代表什麼？這意味著這些東西的幾個季度就是它的意思。只是因為──再次強調，你所進入的周期存在著滯後時間。所以我認為地緣政治壓力已經發生了幾個週期，但實際上只是進入了一些——比如大訂單或類似的東西。事實上，要讓我們的國家和經濟陷入負成長水平，需要的不僅僅是這些。因此，我們認為，這只是不同程度的焦慮所帶來的煞車而已。中國人民非常關心——他們非常關心與美國的關係。他們不太關心貿易。他們認為這只是我們關係的一種表現。因此我們與中國的關係需要改善。我看到很多跡象表明，儘管目前正在採取一些政治和法律行動，但這種情況正在開始發生。我的意思是，我認為從根本上來說，情況要好一些。希望本週的交易能進一步促進這項進程。就歐洲而言，我認為這更多的是一個與歐盟和英國之間的貿易關係如何的問題。因為我們不知道這種連鎖反應的不確定性程度，也不知道它是否會對整個歐洲產生更大的影響。所以我認為我們會暫停幾個月。我認為在這種經濟情勢下油價不會下跌。我不認為——我認為我們會看到自己擺脫這種困境。從根本上來說，沒有理由改變它。在我們看來，政治局勢很可能只會變得更糟而不是變得更好。我認為情況會好轉的。

The next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

In cig tow, you continue to take kind of tactical actions to improve the business, like the shutdown in Mexico. Are there any strategic actions still on the table that you're thinking about in cig tow over time?

在香菸拖運方面，您繼續採取一些策略行動來改善業務，例如在墨西哥的停產。您是否還在考慮採取什麼策略行動來應對長期的香菸拖運問題？

There are. And we're having trouble making those happen just yet. But we're working -- we continue to work those. And I think it's only, John, a matter of time before something surfaces there because it's such an obvious need on the part of not only the producers but also the customers out there that still want very reliable supply and expect it to. No one's asked a question on tow relative to the quarter. And we talked a little bit in the quarter, which really was related to fixed costs rolling through that were very unusual for us. And we should have done a very good job of anticipating to communicate to The Street, which we did not. And we also missed several orders, we just logistically couldn't get them out. Those things -- certainly, if the orders reverse themselves, we would expect feedback in the mid-60s as we get into the first quarter.

有。但我們目前還無法達成這些目標。但我們正在努力——我們會繼續努力。約翰，我認為這只是時間問題，因為不僅生產商有明顯的需求，而且客戶仍然希望獲得非常可靠的供應，並且期待如此。沒有人問過與本季相關的問題。我們在本季度進行了一些討論，這實際上與固定成本的滾動有關，這對我們來說非常不尋常。我們本應很好地與華爾街溝通，但我們沒有這樣做。而且我們還錯過了幾個訂單，因為物流原因我們無法發出它們。這些事情——當然，如果命令發生逆轉，我們預計進入第一季時反饋會達到 60 年代中期。

And then on the supply chain correction in the Engineered Materials segment, do you have any primary data on where your customers' inventories are or how much contained plastics are down the supply chain? Or are you just basically triangulating between what you're seeing in market data about end market growth versus what you're selling into the channel?

然後，關於工程材料部門的供應鏈調整，您是否有關於客戶庫存在哪裡或供應鏈中包含多少塑膠的原始數據？或者您只是在對您在市場數據中看到的有關終端市場成長的情況與您在通路中銷售的產品進行三角測量？

We did a bit more triangulating today. I think my comments on this year's earnings really relate to kind of a view that we have a very high level of what's going to happen. And we'll be able to update that more in April.

今天我們做了更多的三角測量。我認為我對今年收益的評論確實與這樣一種觀點有關：我們對未來將要發生的事情有非常高的認識。我們將在四月更新更多內容。

And that question will be from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

這個問題由 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出。

With regard to your acetyl rationalization plans in Asia, Mark, could you comment as to whether you're dismantling capacity in either China or Singapore? I'm trying to get a feel for whether you're rationalizing capacity or production plans or both?

關於您在亞洲的乙醯基合理化計劃，馬克，您能否評論一下您是否正在拆除中國或新加坡的產能？我想了解您是否正在合理化產能或生產計劃，還是兩者兼而有之？

Well, the way we've -- to answer your question, we're not fully committed to any one site to make that happen just yet. There's options in value, different values slightly, depending on which way we go with that. Our intention is if we rationalize capacity, it's rationalized. So that means it's not available.

嗯，我們的方式——回答你的問題，我們還沒有完全致力於任何一個網站來實現這一目標。價值上有多種選擇，價值略有不同，取決於我們採用哪種方式。我們的目的是，如果我們使產能合理化，那麼它就是合理化的。這意味著它不可用。

Okay. And then with regard to the syngas plant acquisition, what impact would you expect that to have on your acetic acid margins or your segment margins? And could you comment on what happens with the hydrogen coming out of that unit, whether or not you need any internally or wheel it back to a gas supplier?

好的。那麼，關於合成氣工廠的收購，您預期這會對您的醋酸利潤或分部利潤產生什麼影響？您能否評論一下該裝置產生的氫氣會發生什麼情況，是否需要內部使用，還是將其送回天然氣供應商？

Yes, I think the marginal impact is -- it's actually a return on capital impact is where you get it because you're avoiding a capital investment. And then on a variable cost basis, it's the same going in there. And I haven't really sat down and worked through the actual return you get. But you see it in lower levels of invested capital on return on that capital to produce the acetic acid. That's how you're going to see it. I don't know if you want to take...

是的，我認為邊際影響是——它實際上是對資本的回報影響，因為你避免了資本投資，所以你得到了它。然後，在變動成本基礎上，情況也是一樣的。我還沒有真正坐下來仔細研究你實際上能得到什麼回報。但你會發現，生產乙酸的資本投資報酬率較低。這就是你將會看到的。我不知道你是否想服用...

It fits, Kevin, with the expanded footprint, right? When we think of the 3 sources that we'll have, it fits there and creates a wide range of operating rate flexibility, much more than we have today when you think about our Asian footprint. So it fits with integration, it fits with future times and therefore requirement for CO and then operating rate flexibility, which we like as a part of our network process as we consider different decisions. And then the hydrogen reference, we do not have the need for it internally. That would be packaged up in an arrangement with an industrial gas supplier or partner.

凱文，它適合擴大的佔地面積，對嗎？當我們考慮我們將擁有的 3 個來源時，它就適合那裡並創造了廣泛的運營率靈活性，當你想到我們的亞洲足跡時，這比我們今天擁有的要多得多。因此，它適合集成，適合未來時代，因此也適合 CO 和運營率靈活性的要求，我們在考慮不同的決策時喜歡將其作為網路流程的一部分。然後對於氫參考，我們內部不需要它。這將與工業氣體供應商或合作夥伴達成協議。

Okay, great. Thanks, everyone, for the questions today and for listening in. We're available today after the call for any further concerns or questions you have.

好的，太好了。感謝大家今天的提問與收聽。今天通話結束後，我們隨時可以解答您的任何問題或問題。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。