塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Celanese First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, Chuck Kyrish. Thank you. You may begin.

問候並歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興將會議交給主持人查克凱裡什 (Chuck Kyrish)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Rob. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Chuck Kyrish, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. With me today are Mark Rohr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer; and Todd Elliott, Senior Vice President, Acetyl Chain.

謝謝，羅布。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2019年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Chuck Kyrish，是投資人關係副總裁兼財務長。今天與我一起的還有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·羅爾 (Mark Rohr)、首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson) 和乙醯鏈高級副總裁托德·埃利奧特 (Todd Elliott)。

Celanese Corporation distributed its first quarter 2019 earnings release via Business Wire and posted a slide presentation and prepared remarks about the quarter in the Investor Relations section of our website yesterday after market close.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業新聞發布了其 2019 年第一季度收益報告，並在昨天收盤後在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示並準備好了有關本季度的評論。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements which can be found on Slide 2 of the slide presentation under important information.

今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看投影片簡報第 2 張投影片中「重要資訊」部分有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言。

We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions and other important information and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website in the Investor Relations section. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials are also available on the SEC's EDGAR system and our website.

今天我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到定義和其他重要資訊以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也可在美國證券交易委員會的 EDGAR 系統和我們的網站上取得。

Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we will now open the line directly for your questions.

由於我們昨天發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接開通熱線回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

In Engineered Materials, the affiliates underperformed the wholly owned operations. There's obviously some big regional differences between wholly owned and affiliates. But could you remind us of some of the application and plastic mix differences between the 2?

在工程材料領域，關聯公司的表現不如全資公司。顯然，獨資企業和附屬企業之間存在著很大的地區差異。但是您能否提醒我們兩者之間的一些應用和塑膠混合差異？

Yes, John. This is Mark. I'll start that, maybe Scott Richardson could add some comments. But we did see our affiliates struggle a bit in the quarter. I think the real issue there is that, if I can say this, they don't have the product breadth or the global reach that we do, selling primarily into China and selling into limited applications. So we continue to work with them to see if we can help them improve that performance.

是的，約翰。這是馬克。我先開始，也許斯科特理查森可以添加一些評論。但我們確實看到我們的附屬公司在本季度遇到了一些困難。我認為真正的問題是，如果我可以這麼說的話，他們的產品範圍和全球影響力不如我們，主要銷往中國，而且應用範圍有限。因此，我們繼續與他們合作，看看是否可以幫助他們提高績效。

Yes. John, just to add a little bit more color, if we looked out on a year-over-year basis, almost the entire decline in the equity earnings for Engineered Materials was due to our poly plastics affiliate and really is, as Mark said, largely related to demand in China.

是的。約翰，再補充一點，如果我們按年同比來看，工程材料業務的股權收益幾乎全部下降都是由於我們的聚合塑膠子公司造成的，而且正如馬克所說，這很大程度上與中國的需求有關。

And then could you remind us how much you paid for the Linde syngas unit? Or is that going to be in the cash flow statement when the Q comes out?

然後您能否提醒我們一下您為林德合成氣裝置支付了多少錢？或者當 Q 出來時，這會出現在現金流量表中嗎？

Yes, it is. It's lumped together there, John. We haven't said exactly what that amount was. It will be in the cash flow statement with our Next Polymers acquisition as well. It's a very low capital kind of optionality type investment that we made, which we commented on last quarter.

是的。它被集中在一起了，約翰。我們還沒有透露具體金額。它也將出現在我們收購 Next Polymers 的現金流量表中。這是我們進行的一種資本非常低的可選型投資，我們在上個季度對此進行了評論。

The next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Mike Sison。

Nice start to the year. And Mark, congrats and hope you have a lot of fun things lined up going forward. But I guess I wanted to ask how Lori's role will differ from yours, if any, and in terms of focusing on extracting value for the company and given the -- given your portfolio of businesses?

今年的開始很好。馬克，恭喜你，希望你未來能有很多有趣的事情發生。但我想問的是，Lori 的角色與您的角色有何不同（如果有的話），以及在專注於為公司獲取價值方面以及考慮到您的業務組合方面？

Sure, Mike. Well, you know our business pretty well. And the thing about Celanese is that we have a great, great business machine out there that brings a number of opportunities to us. And the ability of that machine to bring opportunities actually has the capability to overwhelm our internal mechanisms, be they unit operations, be the logistic systems and processes, our ability to innovate as fast as we need to. And I spent a lot of my time on that. And I am sure that Lori's going to spend a lot of her time working those areas. We think, in many ways, it's the next frontier for Celanese, to learn how to go from 20,000 [FTs] to 30,000, manage that better than we do 20,000 is going to be a big part of us continuing to drive value going forward. So I think that's a major area of focus for her.

當然，麥克。嗯，你對我們的業務很了解。塞拉尼斯的優勢在於，我們擁有非常出色的商業機器，為我們帶來了許多機會。而機器帶來機會的能力實際上有能力超越我們的內部機制，無論是單位操作，還是物流系統和流程，以及我們按需要快速創新的能力。我為此花了很多時間。我相信 Lori 將會花大量時間在這些領域工作。我們認為，從很多方面來說，這都是塞拉尼斯的下一個前沿，學會如何從 20,000 [FT] 增長到 30,000，並且比 20,000 更好地管理，將成為我們繼續推動未來價值的重要組成部分。所以我認為這是她關注的一個主要領域。

The second one I would say is that when you look at the opportunities before us, deploying cash continues to be the main focus of -- my main focus and will be hers as well. And we have more and more opportunity [surfacing] and M&A that are bigger and structurally more complex. And Lori brings a lot of capabilities and skills really to facilitate that and help that be a reality for Celanese, which will be a big part of unlocking shareholder value. So I'd say those 2 things are top of mind, but you'll get a chance to meet her soon and ask those same questions.

我想說的第二點是，當你看到我們面前的機會時，部署現金仍然是我關注的重點——也是她關注的重點。我們面臨的機會越來越多，併購規模也越來越大，結構也越來越複雜。洛里擁有許多能力和技能，能夠真正促進這一目標的實現，並幫助塞拉尼斯實現這一目標，這將是釋放股東價值的重要部分。所以我想說這兩件事是最重要的，但你很快就會有機會見到她並問她同樣的問題。

Okay. Great. Then in terms of your outlook for 2Q, you noted that it should look similar to 1Q, but it does sound like the acetyl chain industry operating rates could improve given outages you noted in your prepared remarks. And then I guess thoughts on Engineered Materials, your outlook still looks for good organic volume growth given project wins. And just wonder -- wondering what may be headwinds that you see in 2Q that you wouldn't see a normal say improvement sequentially?

好的。偉大的。那麼，就您對第二季度的展望而言，您指出它應該與第一季相似，但聽起來乙醯鏈行業的開工率可能會因您在準備好的評論中提到的停工而有所提高。然後我猜想，關於工程材料，鑑於項目的勝利，您的前景仍然期待良好的有機銷量增長。我只是想知道——想知道您在第二季度看到的阻力是什麼，以至於您不會看到連續的正常改善？

Yes. Well, good, I'll start that, and I'm sure that Todd and Scott will add some comments here. But let me -- one of the things that's not readily apparent is internally the things that we deal with. So in Q2, we have a number of turnarounds in front of us. Those turnarounds will cost us $25 million or $30 million, so call it $0.15 to $0.20 of headwinds baked in there.

是的。好吧，很好，我會開始的，我相信 Todd 和 Scott 會在這裡添加一些評論。但讓我來告訴你，其中一件不太明顯的事情就是我們內部處理的事情。因此，在第二季度，我們面臨許多扭轉局面的挑戰。這些轉變將花費我們 2500 萬美元或 3000 萬美元，因此我們可以說這其中存在 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元的不利因素。

We're expecting raw materials -- we're probably seeing raw materials and methanol to go up, those kinds of things, and net-net, that will probably whack us for another $10 million. And John asked a great question on affiliates, and we see that affiliate number sliding a bit further. So before we even started this quarter, we've got at least $0.25 of unusual headwinds that we didn't have in the first quarter of the year -- or quite as strong in the first quarter of the year.

我們預期原料－我們可能會看到原料和甲醇等價格上漲，淨價格可能會讓我們再損失 1,000 萬美元。約翰就附屬機構提出了一個很好的問題，我們發現附屬機構的數量進一步下滑。因此，在本季度開始之前，我們就已經遇到了至少 0.25 美元的異常阻力，而這些阻力在今年第一季是沒有的——或者說，在今年第一季並沒有那麼強勁。

So I think on one hand, it's easy to say, "Well, life will be good," and you build from this point. I think the first half of this year is going to be a struggle, and I think maintaining numbers in the flat is a push for us. So I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone go higher than that number for the quarter. I just don't see that right now materializing.

因此我認為，一方面，我們很容易說“嗯，生活會很美好”，然後從這一點出發。我認為今年上半年將會很艱難，保持銷量平穩對我們來說是一個推動力。所以我絕對不會建議任何人在本季設定高於這個數字的目標。我只是現在還看不到這一點實現。

If I take a stab at EM quickly, yes, we're pushing price really hard and we're pushing our mix really hard. And the repercussions of that will not be that great as long as business starts to recover. We don't expect a full recovery in EM to start until -- more in the second half of the year as well. You look at that and auto-build projections, those things, we're still down in the second quarter. We should start some rebound going in the third quarter. So our fundamental belief is, Mike, is that we've got a bit more [ground] here before we get into the back half of the year, where things will -- should be starting to improve. But Todd, do you want to make some comments on AC this quarter?

如果我快速嘗試 EM，是的，我們正在非常努力地推動價格，我們正在非常努力地推動我們的組合。只要業務開始復甦，影響就不會那麼大。我們預計新興市場的全面復甦要到今年下半年才會開始。你看一下這些並自動建立預測，這些東西，我們在第二季度仍然處於下降趨勢。我們應該在第三季開始出現反彈。因此，麥克，我們的基本信念是，在進入今年下半年之前，我們會取得更多進展，情況將會開始好轉。但是托德，你想對本季的 AC 發表一些評論嗎？

Yes. It's Todd Elliott regarding Acetyl. We actually had a pretty good March as we wrapped up Q1. Most of our -- or almost 40% of our business occurred in March as we look at that profile. So we ended on a pretty good note as we wrapped up Q1.

是的。關於乙醯基，我是托德·埃利奧特 (Todd Elliott)。事實上，隨著我們結束第一季度，三月我們度過了一個相當不錯的時期。從概況來看，我們的大部分業務（或近 40%）都發生在 3 月。因此，我們在第一季結束時取得了相當不錯的成績。

But as we get into the second quarter, Mark mentioned that Celanese has turnarounds. It's pretty typical for the industry to have turnarounds during the second quarter. We've got turnaround at Bay City, Texas already underway on VAM. Same thing in Nanjing, China on VAM. We've got about a week -- a little more than a week in Frankfurt on VAM as well, so that will present a headwind that we've got to navigate around. We've got a fantastic network to do that with.

但進入第二季後，馬克提到塞拉尼斯已經轉虧為盈。該行業在第二季度出現好轉是很常見的。我們在德州貝城的 VAM 改造工作已在進行中。中國南京的 VAM 也出現了同樣的情況。我們在法蘭克福參加 VAM 的時間大約有一周多一點，所以這將是我們必須克服的阻力。我們擁有出色的網路來實現這一目標。

I think the bigger issue right now is just how China will unfold from a demand perspective as the quarter materializes. It's a little bit of a slow start in April. There have been a series of safety checks and audits following the explosion in Yancheng in Jiangsu province at the end of March. That's put, probably appropriately so, a damper on operations throughout their province. So that's affected some of the downstream demand at the start of the quarter. So we've got to see how that unfolds, but we'll certainly activate our network around these things and try to deliver the quarter kind of in line with Q1.

我認為現在更大的問題是，隨著本季的到來，中國的需求角度將如何發展。四月的開始有點慢。自三月底江蘇省鹽城市發生爆炸以來，已經進行了一系列安全檢查和審計。這很可能恰如其分地阻礙了他們整個省的行動。因此，這影響了本季初的一些下游需求。因此，我們必須觀察事態如何發展，但我們肯定會圍繞這些事情啟動我們的網絡，並嘗試使本季的業績與第一季保持一致。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特。

Mark and Todd, you guys have talked in the past about maybe some of your competitive -- competitors in China being subject to some challenges with their environmental or economic profile, et cetera. In light of the recent developments in China and maybe a little bit more discipline in enforcement, does this hasten your expectation of seeing some capacity out in China and maybe tightening operating rates even sooner and for longer?

馬克和托德，你們過去曾談到，你們在中國的一些競爭對手可能面臨環境或經濟狀況等方面的挑戰。鑑於中國最近的發展以及執法方面可能加強了一些紀律，這是否會加速您對中國部分產能退出以及可能更早、更長時間收緊開工率的預期？

You know what, and again, I'll start this and Todd maybe you can provide some specific color on some of the closures and stuff they're talking about from industrial parks. But Bob, the movement in China is fundamentally, one, in my personal view, is of driving inflation. And if you think about that, the economy needs higher pricing to get a decent return on the over-investments they've made for a long period of time.

你知道嗎，再說一次，我會開始這個話題，托德，也許你可以為他們談論的工業園區的一些關閉和事情提供一些具體的細節。但鮑勃，我個人認為，中國的舉動從根本上來說就是推動通膨。如果你考慮到這一點，你會發現經濟需要更高的定價才能從長期以來的過度投資中獲得可觀的回報。

So when I kind of worked through that myself, what I see them doing is putting pressure on the 150,000 or so state-run enterprises there to continue to lift those earnings there. So that means environmental restrictions that are going in, that means safety restrictions, and you've seen those sort of occur episodically.

因此，當我自己思考這個問題時，我發現他們正在向那裡的大約 15 萬家國有企業施加壓力，要求它們繼續提高利潤。這意味著正在實施的環境限制、安全限制，你已經看到這些限制時常發生。

So we've gone through a period of safety events that seems like every 6 months to 9 months, and they continue to ratchet up the impact of that and they're directing now. We have read publicly about a number of closures of chemical parks that are going to occur directly with that. That will impact some of our competitors, we think. But Todd, do you want to carry on with that?

因此，我們經歷了一段似乎每 6 個月到 9 個月就會發生一次的安全事件，他們繼續增加其影響，現在他們正在指導。我們已經公開了解到一些化工園區即將關閉的消息。我們認為，這將對我們的一些競爭對手產生影響。但是托德，你想繼續這樣做嗎？

Yes. Just a specific follow-up on this situation in Jiangsu. So remember, before we talk about other provinces going through steps to examine environmental policy, that continues, but in Jiangsu, we had not yet seen anything specifically around park policy. So what we're hearing, I'm not seeing anything published yet, but we're hearing that Jiangsu will reduce the number of chemical parks from 49 down to 20 starting sometime in 2020 forward. How that ultimately is laid out and executed and started, it remains to be seen and the specifics remain to be seen.

是的。我只是對江蘇的情況做了一個具體的追蹤。所以請記住，在我們談論其他省份正在採取措施審查環境政策之前，這種情況仍在繼續，但在江蘇，我們還沒有看到任何有關公園政策的具體舉措。所以我們聽到的是，我還沒有看到任何公佈的消息，但我們聽說江蘇將從 2020 年某個時候開始將化學園區的數量從 49 個減少到 20 個。最終如何規劃、執行和啟動，還有待觀察，具體細節仍有待觀察。

But that's a significant development, a key set of steps following the tragedy in Jiangsu. So that's probably the most impactful in our space. We've got to watch that. So think about where parks are near the Jiangsu River or close to population centers. And as that gets more specific in terms of details, we'll share that.

但這是一個重大進展，也是江蘇悲劇發生後採取的一系列關鍵措施。這可能是我們領域中影響最大的。我們必須注意這一點。因此，請考慮哪些公園靠近江蘇河或靠近人口中心。隨著細節變得更加具體，我們將會分享。

Yes. And the only thing I'd add to that, Bob, is yes, it impacts our competitors, but it also could impact our customers too. And so there is, I would say, a near-term demand impact of -- on our customers as well as we see these audits and scrutiny continuing to ramp up.

是的。鮑勃，我唯一要補充的是，是的，它會影響我們的競爭對手，但也可能影響我們的客戶。因此，我想說，這對我們的客戶有近期的需求影響，而且我們看到這些審計和審查正在繼續加強。

Yes. Just to follow that, so the specific kind of watch out downstream, MCAA, monochloroacetic acid, acetate esters, pharmaceutical intermediates, kind of a whole host of downstream applications, are slow as these safety checks unfold and inventory levels are brought down. Probably the one bright spot would be terephthalic acid over to PET. That's held up pretty strong here in this period. But to Scott's point, that's put a damper on April, but we'll see how that unfolds here as we get into May and June.

是的。因此，隨著這些安全檢查的展開和庫存水準的下降，下游需要特別注意的領域包括 MCAA、一氯乙酸、乙酸酯、醫藥中間體以及一系列下游應用，這些領域的發展都很緩慢。可能唯一的亮點是對苯二甲酸轉向PET。這一特點在這段期間內一直保持強勁。但正如斯科特所說，這給四月帶來了阻礙，但我們將拭目以待五月和六月的情況將如何發展。

And could I ask an EM question, Mark? It seemed like maybe over the last few quarters, you guys have been working hard on getting your price to offset raw materials. And I suspect towards the end of last year when oil went down, maybe some of your customers not only were destocking from macro fears and trying to tighten up their inventories, but also maybe hoping they'd see some relief on price. So, we've had oil rally now. I'm wondering if you could give us a sense of where you see customer inventories destocking/restocking or ability to defer purchases in light of volatility in pricing?

我可以問一個有關 EM 的問題嗎，馬克？似乎在過去幾個季度裡，你們一直在努力提高價格以抵消原料成本。我懷疑去年年底油價下跌時，你們的一些客戶可能不僅因為擔心宏觀經濟而削減庫存，試圖收緊庫存，而且可能還希望看到價格有所回落。因此，現在我們已經看到油價上漲。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們，鑑於價格波動，您認為客戶庫存的去庫存/補庫存或推遲購買的能力如何？

Well, there was -- you called that right, Bob, there was definitely destocking going on as people wanted to -- had a view generally that prices were going to come down. And of course, we rallied in the right kind of way. You continue to drop higher prices through that period of time. So we're now in that kind of aftermath of that and waiting for a fundamental demand to pick up, which it seems to be in some areas. But again, it's a bit too early to tell with that.

嗯，鮑勃，你說得對，肯定存在去庫存的情況，因為人們普遍認為價格會下降。當然，我們以正確的方式團結起來。在那段時間內，你繼續降低更高的價格。因此，我們現在正處於這種後果之中，等待基本需求的回升，在某些領域似乎已經如此。但現在下結論還為時過早。

As it relates to pricing, Bob, what we've really done is yes, generally, you always make sure you work hard to cover [raws]. Really, what we've done is we went out and starting last year, did just a really hard look where we're adding the most value and where we felt we were impacting customers in the most important way. We wanted to make sure that we're getting -- our shareholders are getting the right compensation for that.

至於定價，鮑勃，我們真正做的是，是的，一般來說，你總是確保努力覆蓋[原始]。實際上，我們所做的就是從去年開始，我們認真研究了我們在哪些方面增加了最大的價值，以及我們在哪些方面以最重要的方式影響了客戶。我們希望確保我們的股東獲得適當的補償。

So we were very direct in -- with pricing into those areas where we felt that the value was really being brought by Celanese and the uniqueness of our applications and the molecules we had. So that approach is still ongoing and we don't intend to move away from that. You've asked me in the past, do we lose volume when we do that? And the answer is sure, but we're really looking at a way to drive money. So everything that we do relative to pricing and/or if we elect not to participate on volume is a thoughtful process we go through to try to maximize the value back to our shareholders.

因此，我們非常直接地將價格定位在那些我們認為塞拉尼斯真正帶來價值的領域，以及我們的應用和分子的獨特性。因此，這種方法仍在繼續，我們並不打算放棄它。您以前問過我，當我們這樣做時，我們的銷售量會下降嗎？答案是肯定的，但我們確實在尋找一種賺錢的方法。因此，我們所做的一切與定價有關的事情，或者如果我們選擇不參與交易量，都是經過深思熟慮的過程，目的是盡量為股東創造價值。

Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, would you expect EM volumes to be up year-over-year in Q2?

馬克，您預計第二季新興市場交易量會年增嗎？

Oh, geez. I don't know. Scott, do you have a view on that? I don't know if that -- I don't watch it either.

噢，天哪。我不知道。史考特，你對此有什麼看法？我不知道——我也沒看過。

Well, I mean I think -- yes, I think we're going to be flattish, David, right now. I mean we're still working -- as Mark just talked about, we're still working the price equation very hard. The one thing that is going to change probably slightly from Q1 into Q2 is we'll probably have a little less destocking that occurs.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為——是的，我認為我們現在會持平，大衛。我的意思是我們仍在努力——正如馬克剛才所說的，我們仍在努力解決價格方程式。從第一季到第二季度，唯一可能會略有變化的是，去庫存的情況可能會稍微減少一些。

I mean it takes a good 6 months or so. When oil fell as hard as it did for that to kind of work its way through the value chain. And while our volumes were down year-over-year, kind of in the 3% range, a lot of our customers that we've talked to were kind of in -- down, more kind of 10% to 15% range. And we were able to offset that largely through the new project wins that we had that started to flow through in the quarter. So I would say, at this point, we're kind of looking at flattish.

我的意思是這需要整整 6 個月左右的時間。當油價大幅下跌時，它就會透過價值鏈發揮作用。雖然我們的銷量年減了 3% 左右，但據我們了解，許多客戶的銷量都下降了 10% 至 15% 左右。我們能夠透過本季開始流入的新專案勝利在很大程度上抵消這一影響。所以我想說，目前，我們看到的是持平的情況。

Yes, the good wildcard -- the big wildcard, at least from the discussions I'm involved in daily on this really is China. China, if you look at projections in China, there was a view that in this quarter, they'll start digging out of a hole that all those end in China and start the recovery down mid-teens sort of number in the first quarter, down less the second quarter then actually being positive in the back half of the year to end up down 3% to 4%. So that, that has got to start happening. If that starts happening, we're in good shape. Let's say that doesn't happen, then you may see a little volume weakness as we go through this quarter.

是的，好的不確定因素──大的不確定因素，至少從我每天參與的討論來看，確實是中國。中國，如果你看一下中國的預測，你會發現有一種觀點認為，在本季度，他們將開始走出困境，而所有這些都在中國結束，並開始復蘇，第一季度的複蘇數字將下降到十幾歲左右，第二季度的降幅較小，然後在下半年實際上是正數，最終下降 3% 至 4%。所以，這必須開始發生。如果這種情況開始發生，我們的狀況就很好了。假設這種情況沒有發生，那麼在本季度，您可能會看到交易量略有下降。

Got it. And Mark, in yours and Scott's comments, you mentioned actively considering strategic transformational options for your businesses. Has anything changed of late? Or have discussions picked up recently to drive these comments?

知道了。馬克，在您和斯科特的評論中，你們提到積極考慮企業的策略轉型選擇。最近有什麼變化嗎？或者最近是否有討論引發了這些評論？

Well, I think we have -- when I look at the bolt-ons, let's just talk about that for a minute. We're seeing the size of bolt-ons increase, and those are opportunities, if that makes sense. So we're working a few now that would be in that $30 million to $70 million of EBITDA kind of range to $100 million. We have been doing that deals that have been sub-$30 million in EBITDA. So that's encouraging for us.

好吧，我想我們已經——當我看到附加裝置時，我們就討論一下這個問題。我們看到附加組件的尺寸在增加，這些都是機會，如果這說得通的話。因此，我們現在正在進行一些工作，其 EBITDA 將在 3,000 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元之間，甚至 1 億美元之間。我們一直在進行 EBITDA 低於 3000 萬美元的交易。這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。

We continue to work hard to position Celanese to be able to take advantage of transformational opportunities, and that's a big personal thrust of mine. So as Lori comes in and takes over the helm as CEO, I'm going to be devoting myself to that along with -- and Puckett our new general counsel, so we'll be working that hard. And we're optimistic that as this deal -- this year unfolds and we get into next, there'd be more opportunities become available, and we'll work hard to see if we can capture one of those for Celanese.

我們將繼續努力，讓塞拉尼斯能夠利用轉型機遇，這是我個人的一大動力。因此，當 Lori 來接任執行長一職時，我將與我們的新總法律顧問 Puckett 一起致力於這項工作，因此我們將努力工作。我們樂觀地認為，隨著今年和明年交易的展開，將會有更多的機會出現，我們將努力為塞拉尼斯抓住其中的一個機會。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

This is Angel Castillo on for Vincent. Just a quick question for me on -- around your comments on VAM in terms of focusing on -- when VAM [developed] in the Western Hemisphere and your ability to sell more in this area. I was just curious because my understanding was that at least on the U.S., incremental VAM would likely be exported. So just in light of your expansion and again the comments on the Western Hemisphere, I was wondering if you were able to sell your capacity in the U.S.? Or what are the particular factors that facilitated for you to be able to sell in the region?

這是 Vincent 的 Angel Castillo。我只想問一個簡單的問題 - 關於您對 VAM 的評論，重點是 - VAM 在西半球何時發展以及您在該地區銷售更多產品的能力。我只是很好奇，因為我的理解是，至少在美國，增量 VAM 可能會被出口。因此，鑑於您的擴張以及對西半球的評論，我想知道您是否能夠在美國銷售您的產能？或哪些具體因素促使您能夠在該地區銷售？

Yes. You want me to start that, Mark? Yes, the expansion in Clear Lake, which we brought online in December of last year, so we had 150,000 tons of capacity, that's a key value step amongst several that were underway within Acetyl. So the workaround that started way before the plant ultimately was commissioned. And that was to position our business in the most sort of attractive way as we think about contract mix around the world, key customer growth and mix around the world. So yes, we did ship some of our profile a little more to the Western Hemisphere following that start-up. So again, an intentional step, a key part of our value enhancement efforts, and that will continue into 2019 and beyond.

是的。馬克，你想讓我來開始嗎？是的，我們在去年 12 月開始對 Clear Lake 進行擴建，現在我們的產能為 150,000 噸，這是 Acetyl 公司正在進行的幾項舉措中的關鍵價值步驟。因此，早在工廠最終投入使用之前，就開始採取解決方法。當我們考慮全球合約組合、關鍵客戶成長和全球組合時，這就是以最具吸引力的方式定位我們的業務。是的，在創業之後，我們確實將一些資料發送到了西半球。所以，這又是一個有意為之的舉措，也是我們提升價值努力的關鍵部分，而這項舉措將持續到 2019 年及以後。

Good. And then in terms of your comments on China, you mentioned the high inventory obviously has continued to -- [marked on] there, at least on the acetic side. Just curious, your thoughts as to how long it will take for the industry to work out of that inventory? And then also just in regards to your comments about a slow start to April, I was wondering if you could give us more color. Is that entirely related to the plant explosion? Or were there other things that you're seeing that is perhaps causing more of a slow start?

好的。然後，就您對中國的評論而言，您提到高庫存顯然持續存在 - 至少在乙酸方面如此。只是好奇，您認為該行業需要多長時間才能消化掉這些庫存？另外，關於您對四月份開局緩慢的評論，我想知道您是否可以提供更多資訊。這與工廠爆炸完全有關嗎？或者您發現其他因素導致啟動速度更慢？

Yes. I mean there's lots of trade question marks -- those persist. But I think the main event followed the explosion and the subsequent audit and focused on inventory control throughout the country, really just more specifically in the province of Jiangsu. So that's what we're watching. Now like I said before, we had -- 40% of our business in Q1 happened in March. We thought we were starting to dig out of the softness at the start of the quarter. So I would point to that, point to derivatives off of acetic acid I mentioned 3 before. Those are probably the ones to watch and that's linked to the inventory build that we saw in the quarter.

是的。我的意思是，存在著許多貿易問號——這些問題仍然存在。但我認為，主要事件是在爆炸和隨後的審計之後，重點關注全國的庫存控制，實際上更具體地說是江蘇省的庫存控制。這就是我們所關注的。就像我之前說的，我們第一季 40% 的業務發生在 3 月。我們以為我們已經開始擺脫本季初的疲軟局面。所以我要指出的是，指出我之前提到的 3 種乙酸衍生物。這些可能是值得關注的，並且與我們在本季度看到的庫存增加有關。

Yes. Yes. So there's still adequate inventory. Again we think it's working its way down, but it's not down yet, if that was the nature of your question. So there's still plenty of -- not plenty, there's still excess material out there, and I think that needs to be resolved. The way it will be resolved is the Chinese economy has to pick up a bit. It will pick up whenever there's a trade agreement, in my opinion. So I think we saw the favorable trade discussion going on in March. We saw business pick up in China as a result of that. Then with the explosion, it slowed us back down again. I think there's still this waiting aspect going on -- personally going on in China. So hopefully, we can get that resolved in the next month or 2, and I think that will be good as we enter the second half of the year.

是的。是的。因此庫存仍然充足。我們再次認為它正在下降，但還沒有下降，如果這是你問題的本質的話。所以，仍然有很多——不是很多，仍然有多餘的材料，我認為這需要解決。解決這個問題的辦法就是中國經濟必須稍微回升。我認為，只要達成貿易協議，這種情況就會好轉。所以我認為我們看到三月的交易談判是有利的。因此，我們看到中國的業務有所回升。然後隨著爆炸，我們的速度又慢了下來。我認為仍然存在這種等待的面向——就我個人而言，在中國也是如此。因此，希望我們能夠在下個月或兩個月內解決這個問題，我認為這對我們進入下半年會有好處。

Yes. And the other piece is the turnaround as I mentioned before. So in addition to ours, there are multiple industry turnarounds in Q2. So that will play a role in the inventory dynamics as well. We count something like 17 of the 36 acid plants will be in turnaround in Q2. So many of those are in China, but that will have a role in the inventory dynamics.

是的。另一部分是我之前提到的轉變。因此，除了我們的情況之外，第二季還有多個行業出現好轉。因此這也將在庫存動態中發揮作用。我們估算，36 家酸廠中大約有 17 家將在第二季實現扭虧為盈。其中許多都在中國，但這將對庫存動態產生影響。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

So question on, Mark, question on acetyls. In the last quarter, you announced rationalization of acetic capacity in Asia. And then you announced expansions in the U.S. of VAM, acid and now methanol. So it seems like you're moving production back to the U.S. presumably because of the energy advantage here. So is that true? And will you be exporting some of that material back to Asia?

所以馬克，請問一下關於乙醯基的問題。上個季度，你們宣布對亞洲的醋酸產能進行合理化調整。然後你們宣佈在美國擴大 VAM、酸和甲醇的生產。因此看起來你們正在將生產轉移回美國，大概是因為這裡的能源優勢。那麼這是真的嗎？您會將部分材料出口回亞洲嗎？

Yes. Yes. Well, no. That's definitely heck, yes, that's exactly what we're doing. When you look at the economics of that, it's pretty profound for us. The assets we have in China are -- and Singapore are higher cost than the asset base we have in Europe. And not only is it higher cost, if you look at just the script today for nat gas, out 5, 6 years, when you just roll that out, you can see that favorability lasting for a very, very long period of time.

是的。是的。嗯，不。這絕對是壞事，是的，這正是我們正在做的。如果你從經濟學角度來看，它對我們來說意義深遠。我們在中國和新加坡的資產成本高於我們在歐洲的資產基礎。而且不僅成本更高，如果你看一下今天的天然氣腳本，在未來 5、6 年內，當你推出它時，你會發現這種有利條件會持續很長一段時間。

I just want through some economics the other day that shows how solar power is actually offsetting incremental gas being consumed for utilities in the state of Texas. I mean so we have this low-cost energy base here on the U.S. Gulf Coast that's pretty phenomenal. And the moves we're making really are moves to, as Todd had said, he says it much better than I can, it'll step us up from the base of, let's say, $800 million to kind of our trough earnings level for this business, back up above $1 billion.

前幾天我只是想透過一些經濟學來展示太陽能實際上是如何抵消德州公用事業所消耗的增量天然氣的。我的意思是，我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸擁有這個低成本的能源基地，這非常了不起。正如托德所說，我們正在採取的舉措確實是為了讓我們的盈利水平從基礎的 8 億美元上升到這項業務的最低盈利水平，回到 10 億美元以上，他比我說得好多了。

About $100 million of that is locked up in the acetic acid, primarily productivity just associated with that switch from Asia to the U.S. And then you add on top of that incremental methanol, incremental VAM, those kinds of things. All those contribute towards -- again without any change in the basic business, closing that gap gets you back to $1 billion and of course, $1 billion and beyond goes from that. So yes, that's what we're doing. So most of that material will end up offshore. The demand in the U.S. is not really increasing.

其中約有 1 億美元鎖定在醋酸領域，主要是與從亞洲轉向美國相關的生產力。然後，再加上增量甲醇、增量 VAM 等。所有這些都有助於——同樣，在基本業務沒有任何變化的情況下，縮小這一差距可以讓你回到 10 億美元，當然，10 億美元甚至更多。是的，這就是我們正在做的事情。因此大部分材料最終將流向海外。美國的需求實際上並沒有增加。

Great. And then post-all these expansions in the U.S., how integrated would acetyls be with your EM business? And how quickly can Scott separate these 2 businesses if you decide to take any strategic action on any of the pieces?

偉大的。那麼，在美國完成所有這些擴張之後，乙醯基將如何與您的 EM 業務整合？如果您決定對任何部分採取任何策略行動，斯科特能多快將這兩個業務分開？

Yes. The businesses are not -- is not -- there's organizational integration and it has to be separated. And there's efficiencies associated with a single instance of SAP and those kind of things that you have to work through -- there's some tax -- things you have to work through. And I think once before, we talked about the penalty associated with that of being well north of $100 million per year, so call it $1 billion of negative net present value.

是的。企業不存在組織整合，因此必須將其分開。而且 SAP 的單一實例與效率有關，您必須處理這類事情 - 還有一些稅收 - 您必須處理的事情。我想我們之前討論過與每年超過 1 億美元相關的罰款，所以稱之為 10 億美元的負淨現值。

There's been a lot of work that Mr. Richardson has led over the years and we really dramatically dropped that down -- maybe it's $50 million today. And we'll continue to work that down. But I think we're getting it to a point where should an opportunity arise that would facilitate value creation step that way, it would be certainly possible without the kind of huge negative consequences that corporations often see when that happens.

多年來，理查森先生領導了許多工作，我們確實大幅降低了這筆金額——今天可能只有 5000 萬美元。我們將繼續努力。但我認為，我們正處於這樣的階段：如果出現一個機會，可以促進價值創造，那麼這肯定是可能的，而且不會產生企業在這種情況發生時經常看到的那種巨大的負面後果。

At the same time, we're seeing investment opportunities. And they see we're being very thoughtful with those. Every one we're doing is incremental at very, very low cost to us. But certainly, it's getting to that point where it could do something else, we could do something else that would make sense for that organization and for our shareholders.

同時，我們也看到了投資機會。他們看到我們對此非常深思熟慮。我們所做的每一件事都是漸進式的，而且成本非常非常低。但可以肯定的是，現在到了可以做其他事情的時候了，我們可以做一些對組織和我們的股東有意義的事情。

Yes. I mean depending on the deal, P.J., that we'd do if we got to that point, it's probably kind of 6-ish months process for us to get something pulled off.

是的。我的意思是，P.J.，如果我們到了那個地步，根據我們要達成的交易，我們可能需要大約 6 個月的時間才能完成某件事。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

It's Mike Leithead on for Duffy this morning. On acetyls, first, I was hoping maybe you could remind us what your backwards integration into methanol would be after the recently announced methanol and acetic acid expansion? And second, is it fair to assume with your methanol expansion announced that a potential investment in a second methanol unit is off the table right now?

今天早上，麥克萊特黑德 (Mike Leithead) 代替達菲 (Duffy) 出場。關於乙醯基，首先，我希望您能提醒我們一下，在最近宣布的甲醇和乙酸擴張之後，您對甲醇的向後整合是什麼？其次，既然你們宣布了甲醇擴建計劃，那麼是否可以認為現在就不可能再投資第二套甲醇裝置了？

Well, I'll -- Todd, do you want...

好吧，我會－－托德，你想…

I'll start and you can add to it.

我先開始，然後你可以添加。

Okay.

好的。

On the -- we've talked about roughly a 50-50 balance make/buy. That includes as well our affiliate investment in Saudi. But the profile in the Americas is, of course, more heavily weighted towards make as we think about the methanol unit in Clear Lake, you see these -- our derivatives in the Americas. But this will nudge us up a little bit.

我們已經討論了大約 50-50 的自製/購買平衡。這也包括我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的附屬投資。但是，當我們考慮 Clear Lake 的甲醇裝置時，美洲的業務重點當然是製造，你會看到這些——我們在美洲的衍生物。但這會為我們帶來一些推動。

We started that unit back in '15 with an original design nameplate of about 1.3 million tons. Now we're looking at 1.7 million tons once these expansions are finished. So low cost, great returns on capital also allows us to do some things in support of our integration here in Clear Lake. We acquired carbon monoxide which we talked about before. We have the expansion around the corner with acetic acid. So all that adds to our configurability options there in Clear Lake.

我們於 2015 年啟動了該裝置，最初的設計銘牌約為 130 萬噸。一旦這些擴建工程完成，我們的產量將達到 170 萬噸。低成本、高資本回報率也使我們能夠做一些事情來支持我們在 Clear Lake 的整合。我們獲得了之前討論過的一氧化碳。我們即將擴大醋酸業務。所有這些都增加了我們在 Clear Lake 的可配置性選項。

And Mike, and all I would say to is that, as a cross point, we could be full in the United States and we're totally integrated, and it would be to our advantage at that point. So there's still room to do that beyond the 1.7 million -- beyond the increment that we pushed out with this last expansion. So yes, we've got great partners in hand with Mitsui. We have other friends in the industry who would like to do something with us. So we are certainly not -- it's not the top thing on our list today, but it is something we continue to evaluate and look at. And we'll be willing to take that step with -- if the economics -- where that really make sense to our shareholders.

麥克，我想說的是，作為一個交叉點，我們可以在美國實現全面整合，這對我們有利。因此，除了 170 萬之外，我們仍有實現這一目標的空間——除了上次擴張所推出的增量之外。是的，我們與三井物產有著非常好的合作夥伴。我們行業內還有其他朋友願意與我們一起做事。所以我們當然不會——這不是我們今天名單上的首要事項，但我們會繼續評估和關注它。如果從經濟角度來看這對我們的股東確實有意義，我們將願意採取這一步驟。

Yes. I mean that's the important point. If we focus on high-return investments, and for things like methanol, it's got to really makes sense from a return perspective. And when we did the plant in Clear Lake a few years ago, just as a reminder, we got 50% of the capacity for less than 50% of the capital given some of the assets we were bringing there at the site. So we continue to look for advantageous investments that are going to be really opportunistic for Celanese.

是的。我的意思是這是重點。如果我們專注於高回報投資，對於甲醇之類的產品，從回報角度來看這確實是有意義的。提醒一下，幾年前我們在 Clear Lake 建廠時，考慮到我們帶到現場的一些資產，我們用不到 50% 的資本獲得了 50% 的產能。因此，我們將繼續尋找對塞拉尼斯真正有利的投資。

Great. That's helpful. And then I guess just following up on the return element, you talked about superior returns inorganic -- or sorry, in organic investment for Celanese. I was hoping maybe you could touch on the relative investment opportunity set between the 2 businesses, EM and acetyls, either in terms of higher returns for either business or just a broader opportunity set for you guys today.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我想，只要跟進回報要素，您就會談到塞拉尼斯的無機投資（或抱歉，是有機投資）的優異回報。我希望您能談談 EM 和乙醯基這兩家企業之間的相對投資機會，無論是從這兩家企業的更高回報角度，還是從今天為您提供的更廣泛的機會角度。

No. I mean we've been very clear in both businesses. We really target greater than 20% returns on investments, and we don't really look at either one differently from that perspective. And a lot of what we're doing in acetyls, we've talked at length about focusing on the opportunities in the Gulf Coast for incremental investments that really is justifies with productivity.

不。我的意思是，我們對這兩項業務都非常清楚。我們真正的目標是實現超過 20% 的投資回報率，而我們實際上並不會從這個角度對兩者做出不同的看法。我們在乙醯基領域所做的許多工作，我們都詳細討論了重點關注墨西哥灣沿岸的增量投資機會，這些投資確實與生產力有關。

And then in Engineered Materials, a lot of these are really incremental capital. So if we're putting compounding lines in for Engineered Materials, it generates a lot of value that's just paying back in a couple of years. So that's really where we're prioritizing our investments right now. I think we said we've got kind of 9 projects or so going right now in Engineered Materials from a capital perspective. All of those are pretty small when you look at each one individually, but as a collective program, it's pretty sizable with again a return profile that's greater than 20%.

然後在工程材料中，很多都是真正的增量資本。因此，如果我們為工程材料投入複合生產線，它將產生很大的價值，只需幾年就能收回成本。所以這確實是我們現在優先投資的地方。我想我們說過，從資本角度來看，我們目前在工程材料領域有大約 9 個項目正在進行中。如果單獨來看，這些項目都很小，但作為一個集體項目，規模相當大，回報率也超過 20%。

Yes. And I think the next generation for us too and EM is going to be to restructure our polymer base to better fit the consumption demands that we see in the future. So right now, we're very heavily U.S. and European based in our base polymer production. And we're seeing continued opportunities in Asia, and we see that growth quite dramatically which we currently satisfy from the U.S. So we think there is a whole new round of opportunities that are surfacing and that will be part of the new 3-year plan to think and talk about. We will make that investments out there and Todd is just talking about some of these guys. So we do believe that our investment opportunities are getting greater as we grow this company, and I don't think it's pretty evenly split between the 2.

是的。我認為我們和 EM 的下一代也將重組我們的聚合物基礎，以更好地滿足我們未來的消費需求。因此，目前我們的基礎聚合物生產主要集中在美國和歐洲。我們看到亞洲仍存在機遇，我們看到這種成長相當顯著，目前我們在美國已經滿足了這種需求。因此，我們認為，新一輪的機會正在浮現，這將成為新三年計畫思考和討論的一部分。我們將在那裡進行投資，托德剛才談到了其中一些。因此，我們確實相信，隨著公司的發展，我們的投資機會會越來越大，我認為兩者之間的分配並不均勻。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In Jiangsu, over a longer period of time, do you worry that environmental constraints may either close your capacity or limit your capacity in some way or limit the capacity of your suppliers, your customers? Do you view these environmental efforts over a longer period of time as a clear positive or a clear negative or neutral or you can't tell for your business there?

在江蘇，從長遠來看，您是否擔心環境限制可能會關閉您的產能，或以某種方式限制您的產能，或限制您的供應商和客戶的產能？您是否認為這些長期的環境努力對於您所在地區的企業是明顯積極的、消極的、中性的？或您無法判斷？

Well, Jeff, that's a great question. Yes. So when we -- first off, we're in the Nanjing Park, and it's considered one of the top 2 or 3 parks, maybe the fourth most favorable park in the entire country. So it's a very good park. It's well managed.

嗯，傑夫，這個問題問得非常好。是的。所以當我們——首先，我們在南京公園，它被認為是排名前兩三的公園之一，也許是全國第四受歡迎的公園。這是一個非常好的公園。管理得很好。

The role that companies like Celanese play there and BASF and others is we partner with the politicians really to support their move to become more focused on safety and environmental stewardship. So we play a key role in really helping them put forth the kind of regulations and protocols we have as a corporation and the other multinationals do on that park and on -- organizations that work there.

塞拉尼斯、巴斯夫等公司在那裡扮演的角色是，我們與政界人士合作，真正支持他們更重視安全和環境管理。因此，我們在幫助他們制定我們作為一家公司以及其他跨國公司在該園區和在那裡工作的組織所製定的規章制度和協議方面發揮著關鍵作用。

So they -- that relationship is really positive. So could it end inappropriately for a park like that? I suppose it could, but what we do is pretty unique. And I have a hard time believing that anytime in the near future, it -- these moves to improve China really represent a threat to that park or a real threat to our asset base there.

所以他們——這種關係確實是正面的。那麼，這樣的公園最終會不會有一個不合適的結局呢？我想是可以的，但我們所做的非常獨特。我很難相信，在不久的將來，這些改善中國的舉措真的會對該園區或我們在那裡的資產基礎構成威脅。

When you get out beyond, let's say, a park like -- a big industrial park like -- a chemical park like Nanjing, you get to a lot of industrial parks. Industrial parks don't run that way. They have lots of mom-and-pop or smaller operations there, and those are the ones that seem to be feeling the most pressure now. So I think it's really more our customers that could be impacted as time goes on in that regard. And right now we don't have a way really to assess that, but it's something we're going to keep our eyes on.

當你走出去，比如說，一個大型工業園區，像是南京化工園區，你會看到很多工業園區。工業園區不是這樣運作的。那裡有很多夫妻店或小型企業，這些企業現在似乎感受到了最大的壓力。因此我認為隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶實際上會受到更大的影響。目前我們還沒有辦法真正評估這一點，但我們會密切注意。

Yes. Jeff, when we started planning for that site 15 years ago, we really tried to build it both from our own construction but also our upstream gasification suppliers' construction with an eye towards the future. So if China had an environmental regulation very similar to what we see in the Western Hemisphere, that's what we built for. And so it's not to say that, to Mark's point, that you couldn't see some crackdown possibly in the future, but we really did build that plan with an eye for the future.

是的。傑夫，當我們 15 年前開始規劃該站點時，我們確實嘗試從我們自己的建設以及我們上游氣化供應商的建設來建造它，著眼於未來。因此，如果中國的環境法規與西半球的非常相似，我們就會依照這樣的法規來制定。所以，正如馬克所說，這並不是說未來不會有任何打擊行動，但我們制定這個計畫確實是著眼於未來。

Okay. Great. And in Engineered Materials, was there a few percentage points of volume growth from acquisitions in the quarter year-over-year? I don't know, 4%, 3% benefit?

好的。偉大的。在工程材料領域，本季的收購量與去年同期相比是否有幾個百分點的成長？我不知道，4%，3%的收益？

There was a little bit from mix that rolled in this quarter versus last quarter. Year-over-year, Scott, I'm looking at...

與上一季相比，本季的混合情況略有不同。史考特，逐年來看，我看到…

Yes. It was pretty small, Jeff. I mean, it was -- it's more like 1% to 2% is probably in there. So as I talked about earlier, year-over-year, when you look out on a straight volume basis, it was 3%. What we're hearing from our customers and their demand is down considerably more than that. So if you pull that acquisition, roll that through there, it's more kind of the base is probably 4% to 5% down. We feel pretty good about that given the environment that we were in, that we were able to offset that with new projects.

是的。它非常小，傑夫。我的意思是——大概在 1% 到 2% 之間。因此，正如我之前提到的，與去年同期相比，如果從直接交易量來看，成長了 3%。我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息是，他們的需求下降幅度遠不止於此。因此，如果你進行那次收購，那麼基礎可能會下降 4% 到 5%。考慮到我們所處的環境，我們對此感到非常高興，我們能夠透過新項目來彌補這一缺陷。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess first off and going back to the first quarter results, sort of relative to your initial guidance at the time of the 4Q earnings report, what truly surprised you in the upside in the first quarter? And then related to that, Mark, in your prepared comments, you mentioned confidence and an improvement in China and just broader underlying demand. Is that embedded in your reiteration of guidance for 2019? I'm just trying to clarify.

我想先回顧一下第一季的業績，相對於您在第四季財報時的初步預期，第一季的業績成長真正讓您感到驚訝的是什麼？與此相關，馬克，在您準備好的評論中，您提到了信心和中國經濟的改善以及更廣泛的潛在需求。這是否包含在您對 2019 年指引的重申中？我只是想澄清一下。

Yes. So what I would say is that we guided pretty flat. We were starting the year very, very slowly. And so we were focused solely on what we could bring to the table. And so what I was pleased about is that we brought a lot to the table through incremental productivity, through incremental sales, through mix shift that occurred in our portfolio. There was a lot of work that went into that. And you add on top of that a stronger March than we really kind of anticipated. So that kind of lifted us up a bit above -- over that initial kind of view we had.

是的。所以我想說的是，我們的指導相當平穩。我們今年的開局非常非常緩慢。因此，我們只關注我們能夠提供什麼。因此，我很高興的是，我們透過提高生產力、增加銷售額以及產品組合轉變帶來了許多收益。為此我們做了大量的工作。除此之外，3月的表現也比我們預期的還要強勁。因此，這在某種程度上使我們的觀點比最初的觀點有了一定提高。

Now as we're entering this quarter and I just outlined, I think you've heard, there's probably $0.25 of headwinds today that we didn't have last quarter that are real. So we're starting out not at $2.60. We're starting out more like $2.30-ish. I mean it's that kind of spot and we've got to build back into that.

現在，當我們進入本季度時，我剛才概述了，我想你已經聽說了，今天我們可能遇到了上個季度沒有遇到的 0.25 美元的逆風，這是真實存在的。所以我們的起價不是 2.60 美元。我們的起價大概是 2.30 美元左右。我的意思是，這就是那種情況，我們必須重新建立這種情況。

What my optimism for the year is really centered upon is that I really do believe that China is going to improve as we get into this year and end this year. I do believe it almost seems like the machine is trying to get started only for something to knock it off course.

我對今年的樂觀態度真正集中在：我確實相信，隨著今年的到來和今年的結束，中國的情況將會改善。我確實相信這幾乎看起來就像機器正試圖啟動，但有什麼東西使它偏離了軌道。

And we know the Chinese people well. We know that region well and our customers well. So there's a desire for them to do better. And my belief is as you get into the back half of this year, that we'll see that machine come alive and start to grab more of a foundation, which is not only good for us, but it's good for our affiliates and things like that.

我們非常了解中國人民。我們非常了解該地區以及我們的客戶。因此他們希望做得更好。我相信，隨著今年下半年的到來，我們將看到這台機器開始運轉並開始獲得更多的基礎，這不僅對我們有利，而且對我們的附屬公司等也有好處。

Great. And for my second question, kind of going back to the EM segment. Volume is down 3% in the first quarter. Obviously, comparisons are much more difficult given years of outsized growth and the choppiness in the macro. But the trend line is nonetheless weaker over the past few quarters. I guess going back to the 4,000 projects guidance for this year, what sort of visibility do you have towards that number that gives you confidence of being able to hit that?

偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於新興市場 (EM) 部分。第一季交易量下降了3%。顯然，考慮到多年來的超高速成長和宏觀經濟的波動，進行比較要困難得多。但過去幾季的趨勢線仍然較弱。我想回到今年 4,000 個專案的指導方針，您對這個數字有什麼樣的了解，讓您有信心實現這個目標？

Well, I think there remains this overall press to differentiate. Customers very much want to do new things and serve markets a better way. And so what you actually see is you see that trend increasing. The flip side of that is that the numbers tend to start weighing down to be a little bit smaller in size because people are less confident in that. So we're -- we feel very good about the 4,000. We feel very good about that contribution. And that is not a function of us thinking that the business itself is going to get better, the market's going to get better should -- the need for customers to differentiate themselves versus their competition.

嗯，我認為整體壓力仍需區分。客戶非常希望做新的事情並以更好的方式服務市場。所以你實際上看到的是這種趨勢正在增加。另一方面，由於人們對此缺乏信心，數字往往會開始變小。所以我們對這 4,000 感到非常滿意。我們對這項貢獻感到非常高興。這並不是我們認為業務本身會變得更好，而是市場會變得更好——客戶需要與競爭對手區分開來。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

This is Nick Cecero on for Laurence. So for Engineered Materials, you mentioned that the projects used in battery separators is expected to double again in 2019. Just wondering if we should expect the current cadence of growth to continue over the next 3 to 5 years. And then maybe you can just size the potential market opportunity here.

這是勞倫斯的尼克·塞塞羅。因此，對於工程材料，您提到電池隔膜使用的項目預計在 2019 年將再次翻倍。只是想知道我們是否應該預期當前的成長節奏將在未來 3 到 5 年內持續下去。然後也許您可以評估這裡的潛在市場機會。

Todd, do you want to try that?

托德，你想嘗試嗎？

Yes. So we do see that trend continuing. That growth trajectory is extremely strong in that end use. It's probably one of the really good bright spots for us in China. We are in the process of finalizing an expansion of our GUR ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene unit there in Nanjing, which will help satisfy that demand in the near term. But we're already looking at what is the next wave of investments because we don't see that growth trajectory changing given the focus around electric vehicles in China and these batteries playing a critical role in that growth.

是的。所以我們確實看到這種趨勢正在持續。在該最終用途中，成長軌跡極為強勁。這或許是我們在中國真正值得慶賀的亮點之一。我們目前正在完成南京 GUR 超高分子量聚乙烯裝置的擴建工程，這將有助於短期內滿足這項需求。但我們已經在關注下一波投資，因為考慮到中國對電動車的關注以及電池在成長中的關鍵作用，我們認為成長軌跡不會改變。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

In the prepared remarks, you had pointed to 7 project expansions in the EM segment. Can you kind of help us to think about the earnings power tied to them and the cadence at which they may come in over the next couple of years?

在準備好的評論中，您指出了 EM 領域的 7 個項目擴充。您能否幫助我們思考一下與它們相關的盈利能力以及未來幾年它們可能出現的節奏？

Well, I'd love to, John. I don't have the data in front of me. So you should think of all these as being small and being incremental, all adding millions, not tens of millions of dollars to that process, all baked into that push. We have to grow this thing $100 million per year, which we've been doing in that scenario. So I think it's -- these are small incremental step chains that make us going from the 6 90 up in the 7 70 or so this year. Whatever that number turns out to be 7 60 and then up from that into 8 50, 8 60 next year. It's all part of that.

好吧，我很樂意，約翰。我面前沒有數據。所以你應該認為所有這些都是小規模和漸進式的，所有這些都為這個過程增加了數百萬美元，而不是數千萬美元，所有這些都融入了這一推動中。我們必須每年將這個產品增加 1 億美元，在這種情況下我們一直在這樣做。所以我認為——這些都是小的增量步驟鏈，使我們今年從 6 90 上升到 7 70 左右。不管這個數字是 7.60，然後明年再上升到 8.50、8.60。這都是其中的一部分。

Yes. And it's really what allows us to satisfy the demand growth that we have from the project wins that we've been very -- talking about in great detail over the last several years. And so I mean to Mark's point, these are 5-ish million dollar type projects, each one of them, plus, minus. So we're not talking a huge capital for each one.

是的。這確實使我們能夠滿足因專案勝利而產生的需求成長，我們在過去幾年中一直非常詳細地討論過這個問題。所以我的意思是，對於馬克的觀點來說，這些都是價值 500 萬美元左右的項目，每個項目都有所增加和減少。所以我們並不是說每個人都需要龐大的資本。

Got it. And then I guess with regard to M&A, you indicated, I guess again in the prepared remarks, that the pipeline was strong for both businesses. Aside from the syngas unit that you just acquired, I don't really recall a whole lot happening in the acetyl chain. I guess how should we be thinking about the opportunities for M&A there? And what types of either assets or ventures you might be considering or looking at?

知道了。然後我想，關於併購，您指出，我想在準備好的評論中再次指出，兩家企業的發展前景都很強勁。除了您剛剛獲得的合成氣裝置之外，我真的不記得乙醯鏈中發生過什麼。我想我們該如何看待那裡的併購機會？您可能正在考慮或關注哪些類型的資產或企業？

Well, we think, in that arena, there's partnership opportunities that are available to us, at least in theory, on paper. We have come very close to acquiring businesses that would be derivative-light businesses that would fit our emulsions business well and the portfolio of products we sell there well. There's upstream opportunities there that could involve M&A. So you need to think of it as trying to extend that chain laterally and also back integrated in that chain.

嗯，我們認為，在那個領域，我們有合作機會，至少在理論上是如此。我們已經非常接近收購那些衍生性商品較少的企業，這些企業將非常適合我們的乳液業務以及我們在那裡銷售的產品組合。那裡存在可能涉及併購的上游機會。因此，您需要將其視為嘗試橫向延伸該鏈，並將其重新整合到該鏈中。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, would you comment on the size of your investment to expand methanol at Clear Lake by 25% as well as the timing of that project?

馬克，您能否評論一下你們對 Clear Lake 甲醇計畫擴建 25% 的投資規模以及該計畫的實施時間？

The timing is several years. I think 2, 2.5 years because there's -- you got -- the next turnaround. We haven't talked about the dollar amount, but it's well, well less than $100 million.

時間是幾年。我認為是 2 到 2.5 年，因為還有下一次轉機。我們還沒有談論金額，但肯定遠低於 1 億美元。

Probably [shrink.]

可能[縮小。 ]

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So Kevin, think of the timing similar to the start-up timing with the expanded acetic acid unit. So there's configuration benefits with both of those units starting up about the same time. There's some recapture on the CO2 side at the site and hydrogen benefit at the site. So there's all kinds of integration benefits associated with this. And to Mark's point, capital is de minimis and would be funded through the venture itself.

是的。所以凱文，想想這個時間跟擴建醋酸裝置的啟動時間類似。因此，如果這兩個單元同時啟動，則會帶來配置上的優勢。該地點對二氧化碳進行了一些回收，並且為氫氣帶來了好處。因此，這會帶來各種整合優勢。正如馬克所說，資本是最低限度的，並將透過企業本身提供資金。

Great. And then I wanted to clarify a comment you made earlier regarding potential cost to separate your businesses at $50 million to $100 million. How did you reduce that cost? And as a clarification, is it operational cost or is it inclusive of potential tax effects as well?

偉大的。然後我想澄清一下您之前提到的關於分離您的業務的潛在成本為 5000 萬至 1 億美元的說法。您是如何降低成本的？需要澄清的是，它是營運成本還是也包括潛在的稅收影響？

It's sort of all of the above. I mean we look at all of the implications, everything from the credit arrangements we have and changing of those arrangements out there, the cost of the SAP systems. Now you reconfigure those systems with positive and negative relative to that. People that have joint jobs and how we deal with men and women like that and the way to take care of them.

以上都是這種情況。我的意思是，我們會考慮所有的影響，從我們現有的信貸安排到這些安排的改變，再到 SAP 系統的成本。現在，您可以根據其正面和負面重新配置這些系統。從事共同工作的人，以及我們如何對待這樣的男人和女人以及如何照顧他們。

So every aspect of that, we've looked at. And we felt pretty good that the 100, and it was actually a number higher when we first starting looking at that. We saw ways that we can invest money and improve our ongoing operating efficiency and get that number lower. So our path has been on through productivity to pull that down. And we think contemporary number today is closer to 50 for that ongoing impact. And Scott and others are working to even get that lower over time. So that's how we did it. It's not -- there's no magic in it, it wasn't one thing. There's hundreds of small things that we just had to go after.

因此，我們已經研究過這方面的每個方面。我們對 100 這個數字感到非常滿意，而且當我們第一次看到這個數字時，它實際上是一個更高的數字。我們找到了可以投資並提高持續營運效率並降低該數字的方法。因此，我們的途徑是透過提高生產力來降低這一水平。我們認為，鑑於這種持續影響，今天的當代數字更接近 50。斯科特和其他人正在努力使這一數字隨著時間的推移而進一步降低。這就是我們的做法。這不是——這其中沒有什麼魔法，這不是一件事。我們需要處理數百件小事。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Nice start to the year, gentlemen. On the acetate tow side of the house, the expectation when you offered guidance for the first quarter was that it would be equivalent to the third quarter of last year, which was around $65 million. You came in at $72 million. Now I noticed in the slides, you talked a little about affiliate dividends perhaps being a little bit larger. Can you talk and -- but you also mentioned that business, you believe, has returned to a stabilized earnings profile. Can you provide a little more color on what went right there and what should our expectations be for that business?

先生們，新的一年開始得很好。在醋酸纖維拖曳方面，當您提供第一季的指導時，預期它將相當於去年第三季的水平，約為 6500 萬美元。您的收入為 7,200 萬美元。現在我注意到在幻燈片中，您談到了聯營公司股息可能會更大一些。您能談談嗎—但您也提到，您認為業務已恢復到穩定的盈利狀況。您能否更詳細地介紹當時發生的事情以及我們對這項業務的期望是什麼？

Yes. Really, quarter to quarter, we had -- I mean there's -- a couple of things came in a bit higher than we thought. Price eked up a little bit and there was just some sort of return to a normalized pricing. So it was pretty flat year-over-year, but it was improvement quarter-to-quarter. We had some energy favorability of a few million bucks in there. Spending was down as part of our productivity initiatives came in. And those things all added up to some pretty good money.

是的。實際上，每個季度，我們都有——我的意思是——有幾件事比我們想像的要高一些。價格略有上漲，並在一定程度上回歸正常價格。因此，與去年同期相比，成長基本持平，但與上一季相比有所改善。我們在那裡獲得了數百萬美元的能源優惠。隨著我們生產力措施的一部分實施，支出下降了。所有這些加起來就是一筆相當可觀的錢。

And then on top of that, the equity earnings came in a bit higher. So that was the pop-up that you saw there. I mean, they will settle back down in that mid-60 kind of range. And we think, run out the year, we have continued to look for ways to add productivity, do more productivity in that arena, and we think we'll need to do keep these earnings flat next year. But I don't know if that's enough color for you, but I think the business is performing the way we thought it would. And we expect to be flat as we end this year year-over-year.

除此之外，股權收益也略有增加。這就是您在那裡看到的彈出視窗。我的意思是，它們會穩定在 60 左右的範圍內。我們認為，今年我們將繼續尋找提高生產力的方法，在該領域提高生產力，我們認為明年我們需要保持這些收益持平。但我不知道這對您來說是否足夠生動，但我認為業務表現正如我們想像的那樣。我們預計今年底的業績將與去年同期持平。

Terrific. And just a clarification. Mark, obviously, you indicated that you thought China was going to improve. And just curious, is a trade deal necessary for you guys to hit that $10.50 number or not?

了不起。只是澄清一下。馬克，顯然，你表示你認為中國會進步。我只是好奇，你們是否需要達成貿易協議才能達到 10.50 美元的數字？

Well, yes, that's a great question. And I want you to please understand that I'm talking -- this is a feeling, just having got back from there recently. And the team has spent a lot of time over there. But we -- if you look at the data coming out of China, what you see is you see starts and stops of things. It's like momentum starts to build and then something knocks it off course and momentum starts to build and something knocks it off course.

嗯，是的，這是一個很好的問題。我希望你們能理解，我所說的是一種感覺，我剛從那裡回來。團隊在那裡花費了大量時間。但是，如果你看一下來自中國的數據，你會發現事情時斷時續。就像是動力開始積累，然後某事將其打亂，動力開始積累，然後某事將其打亂。

So I see that as an economy it's not sliding down. It's already taken that step down. It is trying to recover. And there's not a good reason for it to be down. I mean if you go there and you see that -- I mean it's a thriving economy still today, a $14 trillion economy that's going to grow 6%. That's probably twice the economic contribution globally to the world than is the U.S.

所以我認為經濟並沒有下滑。它已經邁出了這一步。它正在努力恢復。而且也沒有充分的理由讓它下降。我的意思是，如果你去那裡，你會看到——今天它的經濟仍然在蓬勃發展，規模達 14 兆美元，並且還將成長 6%。這可能是全球對世界經濟貢獻的兩倍，而不是美國。

So to me, getting that incremental $800 billion or so coming from incremental growth from the Chinese economy is going to be critical not only for China, but it's also critical for the world. So I do believe that for the world to get better, China needs to recover. And I do think to jump-start the economy in China, the trade deal needs to happen.

因此對我來說，從中國經濟的增量成長中獲得約 8,000 億美元的增量不僅對中國至關重要，而且對世界也至關重要。因此我確實相信，為了讓世界變得更好，中國需要復甦。我確實認為，為了推動中國經濟，必須達成貿易協議。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan with SunTrust Robinson.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson 的 Jim Sheehan。

Regarding larger scale M&A. Is that all in EM? Is that all in the engineered plastics area? Or would you consider other kinds of businesses? And then on acetate tow, you once considered a joint venture there. What's your strategy for enhancing shareholder value from that business?

關於更大規模的併購。這些都在 EM 嗎？這些都屬於工程塑膠領域嗎？或者您會考慮其他類型的業務？關於醋酸絲束，你們曾經考慮在那裡建立合資企業。您透過該業務提升股東價值的策略是什麼？

Yes. So yes, when you look at the bigger deals we're looking at, they tend to be more EM-oriented, and that's a little bit of a balanced equation. If you look at AC, we have more control on the growth destiny of AC, which may need fewer partners. We have -- already have a machine and we can elect to work with people or just do our own investments in. And so they tend to be more EM-oriented, that's what I would say there.

是的。所以是的，當你看看我們正在考慮的更大的交易時，它們往往更加以新興市場為導向，這是一個平衡的等式。如果你看 AC，我們對其成長命運有更多的控制權，它可能需要更少的合作夥伴。我們已經有了一台機器，我們可以選擇與人合作，或只是進行自己的投資。因此他們更傾向於 EM 導向，這就是我想說的。

Yes. As regards to AC, we continue to look for ways to try to involve others in that. We think that's the right thing to happen over a longer period of time. Having said that, that business is directionally starting to improve. And we do believe, if we can get through the next year or 2 with flat economics, we'll see a period of time without -- whether we do a deal or not with somebody else, we'll see this business start to get back on course to improve naturally.

是的。至於 AC，我們將繼續尋找方法讓其他人參與其中。我們認為，從長遠來看，這是正確的做法。話雖如此，該業務正在開始有方向性的改善。我們確實相信，如果我們能夠在未來一兩年內保持經濟平穩，我們將看到一段時間內——無論我們是否與其他人達成交易，我們都會看到這項業務開始回到自然改善的軌道上。

Yes. And Jim, as we look at deals in Engineered Materials, they -- we really are focused on deals in the engineered thermoplastics space, so other materials or similar materials to what we have today.

是的。吉姆，當我們研究工程材料交易時，我們真正關注的是工程熱塑性塑膠領域的交易，以及與我們今天擁有的其他材料或類似的材料。

Terrific. And how should we think about the earnings lift from the 15,000-ton expansion in Nanjing?

了不起。那麼，如何看待南京1.5萬噸擴建工程帶來的獲利提升？

Yes. It's a few cents on a full year basis, Jim. It's kind of embedded in the projections that we gave as part of our 3-year plan last year.

是的。吉姆，按全年計算，這只是幾美分。它在某種程度上嵌入了我們去年三年計劃中給出的預測中。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just real quickly on the dissynergies that you've cited there the [$50 million]. Would you like to see that, I guess, go to breakeven before any kind of -- you proceed forward with any kind of action in a JV transaction or a separation?

我來快速談談您提到的 [5000 萬美元] 的不協同效應。我想，您是否希望在進行任何合資交易或分離行動之前實現收支平衡？

Arun, you were talking about the tow business or the AC business?

阿倫，您說的是拖車業務還是空調業務？

The AC business.

空調業務。

Okay. Yes. Yes. Well, I'm -- you guys don't like me very much with this comment. But I think you don't make money by just blowing something up. You make money only if you catalyze unique growth profile. Right now, we have that underway for AC. We're not holding back money for AC. So I think until we started holding back money from a growth point of view, it -- the shareholders are getting the full value for that within the portfolio. So we would see it as part of some catalytic event, I do believe. Or if there was a need for a lot more money we're going to put in place, then you could rationalize that's the right thing to do to bring in a partner and do something else to try to unlock that shareholder value.

好的。是的。是的。嗯，我──你們不太喜歡我的這則評論。但我認為，光是炸毀某樣東西是賺不到錢的。只有催化獨特的成長模式，你才能賺錢。目前，我們正在為 AC 進行這項工作。我們不會為 AC 保留資金。因此我認為，直到我們從成長的角度開始控制資金，股東才會在投資組合中獲得全部價值。因此，我相信我們會將其視為某種催化事件的一部分。或者，如果我們需要投入更多的資金，那麼你可以合理地認為引入合作夥伴並採取其他措施來嘗試釋放股東價值是正確的做法。

Our next question is from Aleksey Yefremov with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫 (Aleksey Yefremov)。

This is Matt Skowronski on for Aleksey this morning. Just following up with Kevin's question. In the past, you mentioned that CapEx in out years, to 2020 plus, it's going to be around $400 million. Is that still a good number to think about now that you have these expansion projects going on?

今天早上，馬特·斯科隆斯基 (Matt Skowronski) 代替阿列克謝 (Aleksey) 發言。只是想回答凱文的問題。過去，您提到我們未來的資本支出，到 2020 年以後，將達到約 4 億美元。現在你們正在進行這些擴建項目，這個數字還是值得考慮的嗎？

No. It's drifting up and I don't know -- I'm looking at Scott. I don't think we've rolled out a number there. But we'll update that shortly, I think. Clearly, the acetic acid expansion is in there, and that wasn't included originally when we said it was in the $400 million. So it will be up a bit.

不。它正在向上飄移，我不知道——我正在看著斯科特。我認為我們還沒有公佈具體數字。但我想我們很快就會更新。顯然，醋酸擴建項目也包含在內，而我們最初說的 4 億美元預算中並沒有包括這項支出。所以它會稍微上升一點。

Understood. And then within engineering materials, is destocking limited to autos? Or were there other end markets?

明白了。那麼在工程材料領域，去庫存化是否只限於汽車？或是還有其他終端市場？

Primarily auto.

主要是汽車。

Yes. Auto, electronics would be probably the 2 biggest where we saw it. We really didn't see much impact in our medical business. And consumer goods has actually held pretty up well also. So it's really mainly cell phones, other electronics and automotive.

是的。汽車、電子產品可能是我們看到的最大的兩大領域。我們的醫療業務確實沒有受到太大影響。事實上，消費品也維持了相當好的表現。所以其實主要是手機、其他電子產品和汽車。

Our last question is from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

Just one for me. You mentioned a pretty heavy turnaround schedule in Q2. It also seemed like you had some downtime in Q1. Does this mean that your turnaround schedule for the back half of 2019 is pretty light? And can you provide any numbers around that?

對我來說只有一個。您提到第二季的周轉計畫相當繁重。看起來您在第一季也遇到了一些停工期。這是否意味著您 2019 年下半年的周轉計畫相當輕鬆？您能提供一些相關數字嗎？

Yes. AC is pretty light. We have -- I think we have EM outage planned in the third or fourth quarter as well. But yes, we tend to -- like most companies -- we tend to do more in the second quarter. And so it's pretty normal for us, that $30 million, $40 million kind of hit in the quarter.

是的。空調很輕。我們有—我認為我們也計劃在第三季或第四季進行 EM 中斷。但是的，像大多數公司一樣，我們傾向於在第二季做更多的事情。因此，本季出現 3,000 萬美元、4,000 萬美元的損失對我們來說很正常。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chuck Kyrish for closing comments.

女士們、先生們，現在，我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想把電話轉回給查克凱裡什 (Chuck Kyrish) 來做最後發言。

So we thank you for your questions and for listening in today. Certainly, we're available after the call to address anything further that you have. And that will wrap us up. Rob, you can close us out.

我們感謝你們的提問和今天的聆聽。當然，通話結束後我們仍可以解答您的任何問題。這就結束了。羅布，你可以讓我們退出。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。我們感謝您的參與。