塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2020 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Abe Paul, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Abe Paul。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Jesse. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Abe Paul, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，傑西。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2020 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Abe Paul，是投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。

Celanese Corporation distributed its second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared remarks about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday after market close. As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

塞拉尼斯公司透過商業電訊發布了其第二季度收益報告，並在昨日收盤後在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了關於該季度的準備好的評論。提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's presentation will also use forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have been also submitted to the SEC.

今天的演示也將使用前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，該語言可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Because we have published our prepared comments yesterday, we will now open the line directly for your questions. Jesse, go ahead and open the line for questions.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將直接開通熱線回答大家的提問。傑西，請繼續回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Nice quarter. You noted that Asia auto builds have recovered. Was your Asian Engineered Materials sales up year-over-year as well? And do you think that will accelerate in Asia after the Polyplastics deal?

不錯的季度。您注意到亞洲汽車製造業已經復甦。你們的亞洲工程材料銷售是否也比去年同期成長了？您認為寶理塑膠交易之後亞洲的趨勢會加速嗎？

Yes. Thanks, John. We are seeing -- we have seen the recovery in Asia. I mean Asia was up about 2%. But I think year-over-year, we really expect Asia to be pretty flat to 2019.

是的。謝謝，約翰。我們看到——我們已經看到亞洲的復甦。我的意思是亞洲上漲了約2％。但我認為，與去年同期相比，我們確實預計到 2019 年亞洲的經濟成長將保持穩定。

Okay. And then you pivoted acetyls to emulsions and powders over VAM. Can you characterize the range swing possible between VAM, emulsions and powders in your mix?

好的。然後您將乙醯基轉化為乳液和粉末，而不是 VAM。您能否描述混合物中 VAM、乳液和粉末之間可能出現的波動範圍？

Yes. Maybe just to give you an idea, I mean, so we actually moved about just over 15% more into emulsions, as an example, in the quarter. We moved kind of 1% more into VAM. We moved more acetic acid and other derivatives back into China since that was a little bit more robust market, even though the margins were a bit lower. I mean generally, we characterize it as we have the ability to move anywhere from 40% to 60% of our acetic acid into downstream derivative.

是的。也許只是為了給你一個概念，我的意思是，我們實際上在本季將乳液的產量增加了約 15% 多一點。我們將大約 1% 的資金轉移到 VAM。我們將更多的乙酸和其他衍生物運回中國，因為中國的市場更加強勁，儘管利潤率略低。我的意思是，一般來說，我們將其描述為我們有能力將 40% 到 60% 的乙酸轉化為下游衍生物。

Okay, so a 20% range then. Great.

好的，那麼範圍是 20%。偉大的。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Just want to square a couple of the outlook comments, starting on the Acetyl Chain. You mentioned flat 3Q versus 2Q, and you also mentioned that you don't expect prices to improve until demand gets back to pre-COVID levels. And then later in the comments, you talked about 2021 being an opportunity for demand levels to be greater than 2019. So I wanted to make sure that comment was also meant to apply to acetic, to the Acetyl Chain and if you think that sort of will be the trajectory.

我只想從乙醯鏈開始，對一些前景評論進行澄清。您提到第三季與第二季持平，您也提到，在需求恢復到疫情之前的水平之前，您預計價格不會上漲。然後在後來的評論中，您談到 2021 年是需求水準高於 2019 年的機會。所以我想確保該評論也適用於乙酸、乙醯鏈，以及您是否認為這將是軌跡。

Yes. So on the Acetyl Chain, I mean, we do expect some volume recovery, modest volume recovery in Q3. We aren't expecting, though, a big change in pricing. As we said, there's still a lot of available capacity in the world, so we think that puts a limit on the pricing.

是的。因此，就乙醯鏈而言，我們確實預計第三季銷量將有所回升，適度回升。不過，我們並不期望價格有大幅的變動。正如我們所說，世界上仍然有大量可用產能，因此我們認為這對定價造成了限制。

Look, we are seeing some improvement in methanol pricing in early Q3. We are seeing some improvement in acetic acid pricing, so maybe even slightly up margins at the beginning of Q3. But we don't really see the fundamentals yet to really think maybe that's sustainable for the whole quarter. You might remember, in second quarter, we also saw a bit of an uptick in margins early in the quarter, but that really flattened out as the quarter went on. So right now, we're seeing modest volume recovery, pretty flat margins and that -- but that volume -- but we do have some smaller turnarounds in Q3 in Cangrejera, Frankfurt and Singapore, which kind of offsets that modest volume recovery. So that's why, right now, we're calling it essentially flat. Again, we're seeing a little bit of margin expansion early in the quarter. But right now, we don't know that that's going to sustain. But clearly, if it does, that will be a help.

我們看到第三季初甲醇價格有所改善。我們看到醋酸價格有所改善，因此第三季初的利潤率甚至可能略有上升。但我們還沒有真正看到基本面，因此認為這種局面可能對整個季度都是可持續的。您可能還記得，在第二季度，我們也看到利潤率在本季初略有上升，但隨著季度的進行，利潤率實際上趨於平穩。因此，目前，我們看到銷量溫和回升，利潤率相當平穩，但銷量卻有所回升，但我們在第三季度在坎格雷杰拉、法蘭克福和新加坡確實出現了一些較小的轉變，這在一定程度上抵消了銷量溫和回升的影響。所以這就是為什麼我們現在稱其基本持平。我們再次看到本季初利潤率略有擴大。但目前，我們還不知道這種情況能否持續下去。但顯然，如果確實如此，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. And I think if you looked at -- oh, sorry, Vincent, if you looked at your question about 2021, it's still early on the Acetyl Chain. We don't have that long of visibility. But we do -- we are anticipating, given conversations with customers, that demand will be improved versus 2020. At least, that's the current outlook. We'll have to see if it gets up to 2019 levels or not. We did see a fair amount of destocking in 2019 in the business, but that 2021 comment was probably a little more related to Engineered Materials.

是的。我認為如果你看一下——哦，抱歉，文森特，如果你看一下關於 2021 年的問題，那麼乙醯鏈還處於早期階段。我們的能見度並不那麼長。但我們確實——根據與客戶的對話，我們預計需求將比 2020 年有所改善。至少，目前的情況是這樣的。我們將看看它是否能達到 2019 年的水平。我們確實看到該業務在 2019 年出現了相當程度的去庫存現象，但 2021 年的評論可能與工程材料業務更相關一些。

Okay. And I did want to follow up on the destocking and the seasonality comments that you made for 4Q. I mean, obviously, recognizing 4Q in a normal year,is a destocking quarter, this is obviously not a normal year when you look at sort of the volume of 2Q. And I recognize it's very hard to predict 4Q at this point, let alone August. But are you just sort of being conservative, assuming that customers will destock in 4Q because what they always do? Or is it possible this year, just because it's been such a strange year, with such a soft 2Q that we don't actually have a down 4Q sequentially versus 3Q because customers -- demand is still coming back and customers don't have the inventory levels to really do it? How are you thinking about that?

好的。我確實想跟進您對第四季度去庫存和季節性的評論。我的意思是，顯然，在正常年份，第四季度是去庫存的季度，但從第二季度的庫存量來看，這顯然不是一個正常的年份。我意識到現在很難預測第四季的情況，更不用說八月的情況了。但是，您是否只是有點保守，假設客戶會在第四季度減少庫存，因為他們總是這樣做？或者今年可能如此，只是因為今年是如此奇怪的一年，第二季度如此疲軟，以至於我們實際上並沒有出現與第三季度相比第四季度的環比下降，因為客戶需求仍在回升，而客戶沒有足夠的庫存水平來真正做到這一點？您對此有何看法？

Yes. I would say, Vincent, we're really assuming normal seasonality. I wouldn't say it's as much destocking as just slightly lower demand as demand come off in fourth quarter for construction and some materials and other things. So not really destocking as much as just normal reduction in demand.

是的。我想說，文森特，我們確實假設了正常的季節性。我不認為這是去庫存現象，而只是需求略有下降，因為第四季建築、一些材料和其他產品的需求下降。因此，實際上並不是在減少庫存，而只是正常的需求減少。

Now, look, we're keeping our options open. We're -- maybe with the abnormal second quarter we have, we'll see people continue to run a bit stronger in fourth Q. We've seen that in some years, but we're not assuming that at this time because, again, we just don't have the visibility that far out. So we're just assuming kind of a normal level of demand drop-off associated with fourth quarter.

現在，你看，我們保留我們的選擇。我們——也許由於第二季度的異常，我們會看到人們在第四季度繼續表現得更強勁一些。我們已經在一些年份看到過這種情況，但我們現在並不認為會出現這種情況，因為我們還沒有那麼遠的預見性。因此，我們只是假設第四季的需求下降處於正常水準。

Yes, Vincent, that Q4 demand in acetyls tends to be weather related in construction, paints and coatings and our emulsions business. So we think that will probably come to fruition. Where we may not see as much of an impact is on the Engineered Materials side. We'll just have to wait and see. Even though we're bringing turnarounds forward into this year, we have enough flexibility in our volumes that if we don't see that destocking -- or that seasonality in EM, then we should be able to respond.

是的，文森特，第四季乙醯基的需求往往與建築、油漆和塗料以及乳液業務中的天氣有關。因此我們認為這可能會實現。我們可能看不到工程材料方面受到太大的影響。我們只能拭目以待。儘管我們在今年提前扭轉局面，但我們在產量方面仍具有足夠的靈活性，如果我們沒有看到去庫存化，或者新興市場的季節性變化，那麼我們應該能夠做出反應。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特。

Lori, I was wondering. You guys said back at the last big Investor Day talked about some aggressive but maybe not specific time frame for some acetic and VAM expansions. Can you just give us an update in light of what's gone on this year, how that's changed your view, if at all?

洛瑞，我很好奇。你們說過，在上一次大型投資者日上，我們討論了一些積極的但可能不是具體的醋酸和 VAM 擴張的時間框架。您能否根據今年發生的事情向我們介紹一下最新情況，這些事情如何改變了您的觀點？

Yes. Thanks, Bob. So the acetic gas expansion was really around the reconfiguration to the expansion at Clear Lake, coupled with some productivity moves in Asia. So as we said last quarter, we have delayed that project for about 18 months, really, in response to the reduced demand dynamics we've seen for a acetic acid, as well as the low oil price environment, which makes Singapore look somewhat more attractive and closer to Gulf Coast's natural gas pricing. So that's the big move in acetic acid.

是的。謝謝，鮑伯。因此，醋酸氣擴建實際上是圍繞 Clear Lake 擴建的重新配置，加上亞洲的一些生產力舉措。因此，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，我們實際上已經將該項目推遲了大約 18 個月，以應對我們所看到的乙酸需求動態的下降以及低油價環境，這使得新加坡看起來更具吸引力並且更接近墨西哥灣沿岸的天然氣定價。這就是乙酸的重大舉措。

We've also announced some expansions of VAM and VAE facilities. Those continue on schedule, consistent with what we've said before. So we're really talking in the 2022-plus time frame because we really see the demand for those products. And as it applies now with Elotex and with others, we see a very robust future for VAM and VAE and other downstream derivatives of acetic acid. So those continue on schedule. Acetic acid is delayed about 18 months.

我們也宣布了一些 VAM 和 VAE 設施的擴建。這些工作繼續按計劃進行，與我們之前所說的一致。因此，我們實際上是在談論 2022 年以後的時間範圍，因為我們確實看到了對這些產品的需求。正如現在 Elotex 和其他公司的情況一樣，我們看到 VAM、VAE 和其他乙酸下游衍生物的前景非常光明。所以這些都是按計劃進行。醋酸延遲約18個月。

And in EM, I'm just curious, given the pretty extreme volatility in a lot of polymer pricing, has that provided some opportunity? Is there some threat there from inter-material substitution? Can you just sort of talk about your development efforts with customers there in light of all this volatility? What's that done to the whole process that you guys have in terms of the innovation and new product wins and that sort of thing?

在新興市場，我很好奇，考慮到許多聚合物價格的極端波動，這是否提供了一些機會？是否存在來自材料間替代的威脅？鑑於這種波動性，您能否與那裡的客戶談談您的開發工作？這對你們在創新、新產品研發等方面的整個流程有什麼影響？

Yes. So I think there's been a number of opportunities that have come up in Engineered Materials. So one opportunity we've seen, probably more so than price volatility, I would say, is around desire to have more certainty on supply chain. And so we have seen inquiries from customers and wanting to get product within the region that they're going to use it to derisk some of their supply chain. So that's been a few opportunities for us. And we also just see a lot of opportunity consistent with what we've laid out as our strategy, so really more aggressive movement into electric vehicles. We've seen a lot more opportunities there, especially for some of our recycled products like ECOMID and some of our flame-retardant nylon. We've seen more opportunities there for lightweighting. We just see electric vehicles, which, obviously, is also getting a lot of help here in the COVID environment from stimulus packages and things, especially in Europe and Asia. That has been a focus for us for the last 18 months now, and we see it really developing to where, for example, the accessible market for us in electric vehicles is about 30% greater for Celanese products than it is in traditional vehicles.

是的。所以我認為工程材料領域已經出現了許多機會。因此，我認為，我們看到的一個機會，可能比價格波動更重要，是人們對供應鏈有更多確定性的渴望。因此，我們看到了來自客戶的詢問，他們希望在該地區獲得產品，並利用它來降低部分供應鏈的風險。所以這對我們來說是一些機會。我們也看到了許多與我們制定的策略一致的機會，因此我們將更積極地進入電動車領域。我們在那裡看到了更多的機會，特別是對於我們的一些再生產品，例如 ECOMID 和一些阻燃尼龍。我們看到了更多輕量化的機會。我們只看到電動車，顯然，在新冠疫情環境下，電動車也從刺激計畫等措施中獲得了很大幫助，尤其是在歐洲和亞洲。這是我們過去 18 個月以來一直關注的重點，我們看到它正在真正發展，例如，塞拉尼斯產品在電動車領域的可進入市場比傳統汽車領域的可進入市場高出約 30%。

So we've seen -- 5G is another area, more focus on medical pharma. That's provided some opportunity. So I think some of the strategic focuses that we've laid out in the last year we've really seen strengthened through COVID as well as some new ones developing around things like people wanting more materials that are resistant to the use of disinfectants and sterilization as well as more focus on pharma compliance. So we actually see a lot of opportunities in Engineered Materials and are pretty optimistic about the level of project wins we've had despite the -- in a COVID environment.

所以我們看到——5G 是另一個領域，更專注於醫療製藥。這提供了一些機會。因此，我認為，我們去年制定的一些戰略重點確實透過新冠疫情得到了加強，同時，一些新的戰略重點也在不斷發展，例如人們希望獲得更多能夠耐受消毒劑和滅菌的材料，以及更加註重藥品合規性。因此，我們實際上在工程材料領域看到了許多機會，儘管面臨 COVID 環境，但我們對我們取得的專案勝利水平非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Yes. Maybe just a follow-up on EM. When you look across your suite of all the different polymers, with the weaker demand, have you seen any erosion or material erosion in pricing caused by that weaker demand?

是的。也許只是 EM 的後續行動。當您查看所有不同聚合物的套件時，由於需求減弱，您是否看到由需求減弱引起的價格侵蝕或材料侵蝕？

I would say across the board, on average, no. In fact, we probably saw a little bit of margin expansion in the second quarter with lower raw material. And we should see that raw material advantage continue because there's always a bit of a lag in raw material advantage. And so while in some end applications like consumer and industrial, there's certainly been -- and automotive, there's been a softer demand. And some of that has maybe tightened up pricing. And others like electrical and medical, we've seen higher demand, and we've seen improved pricing. So on average, I'd say our margin -- variable margin has been pretty consistent quarter-to-quarter. And if anything, we're seeing just a little bit of margin expansion overall.

我想說，總體而言，平均而言，不是。事實上，由於原物料價格下降，我們可能會看到第二季利潤率略有擴大。我們應該看到原材料優勢繼續保持，因為原材料優勢總是存在一些滯後。因此，雖然在某些終端應用（如消費和工業）中，以及汽車領域，需求確實有所減弱。其中有些可能已經收緊了定價。對於電氣和醫療等其他領域，我們看到了更高的需求，並且我們看到了價格的提高。因此，平均而言，我認為我們的利潤率——浮動利潤率每季都相當穩定。如果有的話，我們看到整體利潤率只是略有擴大。

Okay. And then if we just move to Tow, the pandemic influence on cigarettes in your Tow business. I mean, I don't know, but it's a respiratory disease. I can't imagine smoking a cigarette is enjoyable trying to wear a mask. Have you seen any influence on demand for either cigarettes or your Tow business because of COVID?

好的。然後，如果我們只討論 Tow，那麼疫情將對 Tow 業務中的香菸產生影響。我的意思是，我不知道，但這是一種呼吸道疾病。我無法想像戴著面具吸煙會是一種享受。您是否發現 COVID 對香菸或拖車業務的需求產生了任何影響？

No. Not at all. We have not seen any impact on demand or any impact actually on smoking trends. In fact, if you look at China, China through June is showing a 2% increase in demand for cigarettes. And anecdotally, even in the U.S., if you see some of the reports coming out, like Altria is reporting only a 2% decline this year versus what they thought would be a 4% decline in smoking. So I would say, in some areas of the world, that would appear people have more time in their hands and are using that time to smoke more, not less, as kind of strange as that seems in this period. So we're not seeing any impact in demand, if anything, a little bit of an uptick.

不。一點也不。我們沒有看到對需求有任何影響，也沒有看到對吸煙趨勢有任何實際影響。事實上，如果你看看中國，你會發現截至六月，中國的香菸需求量增加了 2%。有趣的是，即使在美國，如果你看到一些報告，例如奧馳亞報告今年吸菸率僅下降了 2%，而他們認為吸菸率會下降 4%。所以我想說，在世界的某些地區，人們似乎有更多的空閒時間，並利用這些時間來吸煙更多，而不是更少，儘管這在當前時期看起來有點奇怪。因此，我們沒有看到需求受到任何影響，如果有的話，只是略有上升。

Our next question comes from PJ Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 PJ Juvekar。

Lori, it's Eric Petrie on for PJ. In the Engineered Materials, can you discuss your project pipeline? You were talking about moving from 4,000 last year to 5,000 this year. So is that on track? Or has that slowed down with lower auto builds?

洛里，我是埃里克·皮特里，代替 PJ 上場。在《工程材料》中，您能討論一下您的專案管道嗎？您說的是，從去年的 4,000 增加到今年的 5,000。那麼一切順利嗎？或者說，隨著汽車產量的下降，這項成長速度已經放緩？

No. I mean, actually, our Q2 is on track for -- in terms of project wins with what we expected despite the COVID's challenges. And I would say, even if you look at kind of value per win, which is where we're trying to focus this year, which is more on value, that's actually been flat year-on-year, which we think in the COVID environment is also good that we're getting good value out of our product.

不。我的意思是，實際上，儘管面臨 COVID 的挑戰，但就專案勝利而言，我們的第二季度仍按計劃進行，符合我們的預期。我想說的是，即使你看一下每次勝利的價值，這也是我們今年試圖關注的重點，更多的是價值，這實際上是同比持平的，我們認為在 COVID 環境下這也是好事，因為我們從產品中獲得了良好的價值。

I would say our Engineered Material folks are just doing a fantastic job being creative, finding ways to actually increase the amount of contact we have with our customers, even if it's remotely, being able to use a remote environment to get higher-level contact with our customers and using some really creative mechanisms like webinars to really not just touch existing customers but also do prospecting for new customers.

我想說，我們的工程材料員工做得非常出色，他們富有創造力，找到了切實增加與客戶聯繫的方法，即使是遠端的，也能夠利用遠端環境與客戶進行更高層次的聯繫，並使用網路研討會等一些真正有創意的機制，不僅可以接觸現有客戶，還可以尋找新客戶。

And so we have found customers still want solutions. We're still in the business of providing solutions. Our folks are really focused on that. And in addition to the ones we called out, we've had several great examples of project wins in this quarter. I mean just to maybe -- just put a little color around it, in medical-grade POM, we had a pretty big win there for an auto-injector application in Europe. We signed a development agreement with an app -- for an application of our VitalDose EVA, which came up pretty good, upfront development fee. We have a new high-voltage connector application for electric vehicles for our flame-retardant nylon, which we also signed this quarter. And then we actually have quite a lot happening in the 5G space as folks are looking for better signal integrity, which is a great application for -- primarily LCT but also PPS. And then for lightweighting applications, which is maybe more around LFT and other polymers. So we're really excited about the wins that we're seeing in nonautomotive space. But of course, we called out -- we also had big wins this quarter in the automotive tier 1 space as well.

因此我們發現客戶仍然想要解決方案。我們仍在致力於提供解決方案。我們的員工確實非常關注這一點。除了我們提到的專案之外，本季我們還有幾個專案成功的優秀案例。我的意思是，也許只是給它加點顏色，在醫用級 POM 中，我們在歐洲的自動注射器應用方面取得了相當大的勝利。我們與一款應用程式簽署了開發協議——針對我們的 VitalDose EVA 應用程序，這筆前期開發費用相當不錯。我們的阻燃尼龍有一款用於電動車的新型高壓連接器應用，我們也在本季簽署了該協議。然後，我們實際上在 5G 領域發生了很多事情，因為人們正在尋求更好的訊號完整性，這是一個很好的應用——主要是 LCT，但也是 PPS。然後對於輕量化應用，可能更多地圍繞 LFT 和其他聚合物。因此，我們對非汽車領域的勝利感到非常興奮。但當然，我們呼籲——本季我們在汽車一級領域也取得了巨大勝利。

Great. And then turning to the Acetyls Chain, you expect some volume improvement into the third quarter, but no pricing. So is that just due to raw materials you're expecting to remain benign for methanol and the ethylene? Or could you talk a little bit about those raw material push on pricing versus a demand pull?

偉大的。然後轉向乙醯基鏈，您預計第三季的銷售會有所改善，但沒有定價。那麼，您是否認為甲醇和乙烯的品質保持良好只是因為原料的原因？或者您能否稍微談談原料推動定價與需求拉動之間的關係？

So second quarter raw materials was, I would say, kind of at an all-time low. It was lower sequentially from Q1 across all areas. I mean methanol was very low in all regions. I mean we're seeing 20% declines in the U.S. and Asia in terms of pricing. Ethylene was very low at 15% declines in the U.S., 25% in Europe. Natural gas was low. I mean everything was really low in Q2.

因此，我想說，第二季的原物料價格處於歷史最低水準。所有地區的環比增長均較第一季有所下降。我的意思是所有地區的甲醇含量都很低。我的意思是，我們看到美國和亞洲的價格下降了 20%。乙烯產量非常低，美國下降了 15%，歐洲下降了 25%。天然氣價格低廉。我的意思是第二季一切都很低迷。

As I said to an earlier question, we are seeing maybe some slight movement upward in terms of raw material and also acetic acid pricing in Q3. But we saw that also in early Q2, and it didn't sustain. So our assumption now for Q3 is we may see some movements with pricing. We may see some movement with raws. They tend to move together. So we aren't really expecting much margin compression, but we're not expecting margin expansion either. So that's our assumption going forward. If we see sustainable movement, there may be an opportunity for margin expansion, but we've not baked that into our numbers.

正如我之前回答的問題一樣，我們看到第三季原物料和醋酸價格可能略有上漲。但我們在第二季初也看到了這種情況，而且它並沒有持續下去。因此，我們現在對第三季的假設是，我們可能會看到價格的一些變化。我們可能會看到一些原始的動向。它們往往會一起移動。因此，我們實際上並不期望利潤率大幅壓縮，但我們也不期望利潤率擴大。這就是我們未來的假設。如果我們看到可持續的運動，可能就有機會擴大利潤率，但我們還沒有將其反映在我們的數據中。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Lori, what do you think the Acetyl Chain can get back to once -- maybe a post-COVID volume number or back to maybe a pre-COVID volume, if you can get back there at some point in time? And then -- and what do you think needs to happen in terms of margins and pricing and to sort of get to that run rate?

洛里，您認為乙醯鏈可以恢復到什麼水平——可能是 COVID 之後的量，或者可能恢復到 COVID 之前的量，如果您可以在某個時間點回到那裡？然後——您認為在利潤和定價方面需要發生什麼才能達到這樣的運行率？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Look, we still feel like kind of foundational level of earnings for the Acetyl Chain is in that $175 million to $200 million a quarter, so kind of that $700 million to $800 million per year. We feel pretty comfortable with that. I mean, even if you look at where we are right now in this quarter at, say, $116 million, we had an 11% volume loss due to COVID if you remove the Elotex acquisition, which was 5%. So that's about $40 million right there. And then we had another kind of $20 million in price margin, which I'd say was tied to those really low volumes and utilization, particularly looking at advanced.

是的。謝謝，麥克。看起來，我們仍然覺得乙醯基鏈的基本獲利水準是每季 1.75 億到 2 億美元，也就是每年 7 億到 8 億美元。我們對此感到很滿意。我的意思是，即使你看看我們本季目前的狀況，比如說 1.16 億美元，如果不考慮 Elotex 收購，我們的銷量也會因 COVID 而損失 11%，而這一數字為 5%。所以這筆錢大約是 4,000 萬美元。然後，我們還有另外 2000 萬美元的價格利潤，我認為這與那些非常低的產量和利用率有關，特別是從先進的角度來看。

So if you look at that, we're still -- we still feel like we're in that $175 million to $200 million range kind of without the extreme impact that we saw from COVID on volume and then resulting -- that resulting impact on margin. So I really think it just takes back to getting to more normal levels of utilization. If you look at utilization, this quarter, I mean, we -- this is really the lowest of the trough conditions. If you look at China, China utilization was below 60%. Global utilization was only mid-60s. So I think, really, to get back to that level of foundational earnings, we need to get back to the kind of 70% and higher level of utilization. And it's really about recovering Western Hemisphere demand because that's really where we saw the weakness in second quarter.

因此，如果你看一下，我們仍然 - 我們仍然覺得我們處於 1.75 億美元到 2 億美元的範圍內，沒有看到 COVID 對銷量造成的極端影響，也沒有看到對利潤率造成的最終影響。所以我真的認為它只是需要恢復到更正常的利用率水平。如果你看一下本季的使用率，我的意思是，這確實是最低的低谷狀況。如果你看看中國，中國的利用率低於60%。全球利用率僅為 60 年代中期。所以我認為，要真正恢復到基礎收益水平，我們需要恢復到 70% 或更高的利用率。這實際上與西半球需求的恢復有關，因為我們在第二季度確實看到了西半球需求的疲軟。

Got it. And then when you think about '21, you've accelerated some turnarounds. You have some cost savings. How much sort of growth do you have somewhat in your control as you head into '21 as sort of an anchor for some profitability improvement?

知道了。然後，當您想到 21 世紀時，您已經加速了一些轉變。您節省了一些成本。當您邁入 21 世紀時，您能控制多少成長，作為獲利能力提升的支柱？

Yes. So as we move into 2021, we're really looking -- if demand continues at the current trajectory, we're really, then in '21, nearing the levels we saw in 2019. As you noticed earlier with my optimism about our project model in EM, I mean, we are having a lot of new project wins, new opportunities that we've developed that we think, in the EM space, will let us -- again, assuming the demand recovery continues, let us exceed the levels that we had in 2019 based upon the new projects that we're seeing being developed. So again, really around the EV space.

是的。因此，隨著我們進入 2021 年，我們真正關注的是——如果需求繼續按照目前的軌跡增長，那麼到 2021 年，我們真的會接近 2019 年的水平。正如您之前註意到的，我對我們在新興市場的項目模式持樂觀態度，我的意思是，我們贏得了許多新項目，開發了許多新機會，我們認為在新興市場領域，這些機會將讓我們——再次假設需求復甦繼續下去，讓我們根據正在開發的新項目，超過 2019 年的水平。再次強調，這確實圍繞著電動車領域。

Also elective surgery, we had a bit of a -- almost, I'd say, a $10 million surprise this quarter from elective surgery deferral. I mean we knew they were being pushed out, but we expected them to come back yet at the end of second quarter. We really haven't seen them come back. That was about a $10 million hit in the second quarter. Even in the third quarter, while we think elective surgeries come back, we aren't expecting much of that to come back in the third quarter because there's some inventory that needs to be taken down at the suppliers. And so that recovery really comes in fourth quarter and we think into 2021, so we think that will be an upside going into 2021 as well. Acetyl inventories are generally pretty low. So we think as we see demand recovery, that will pull through to volume and margin in acetyl. And then as you said, we kind of have a $70 million to $80 million help next year from less turnarounds.

此外，對於選擇性手術，我想說，本季度由於選擇性手術延期，我們幾乎獲得了 1000 萬美元的意外收入。我的意思是我們知道他們被淘汰了，但我們預計他們會在第二季末回來。我們確實沒有看到他們回來。這給第二季造成了約 1000 萬美元的損失。即使在第三季度，雖然我們認為選擇性手術會恢復，但我們預計第三季度不會恢復太多，因為供應商需要減少一些庫存。因此，我們認為復甦將在第四季度真正到來，並持續到 2021 年，因此我們認為這對 2021 年來說也是一個利好因素。乙醯庫存通常相當低。因此，我們認為，隨著需求復甦，乙醯基的產量和利潤將會被拉動。正如您所說，明年我們將從更少的周轉中獲得 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

So the last few EM deals targeted nylon compounding, but I'm assuming that opportunity is a bit tapped out now. So where do you see future cash deployment headed from a polymer technology standpoint?

因此，最近的幾筆新興市場交易都瞄準了尼龍複合材料，但我認為現在這個機會已經被挖掘殆盡了。那麼從聚合物技術的角度來看，您認為未來的現金部署將走向何方？

Yes. Matt, so we have targeted nylon. I mean we put a lot of money into nylon acquisitions a few years ago, and so we've really been working to kind of exploit that part of our portfolio and that new capability that was the rationale behind those acquisitions. And I think, quite frankly, there's a lot of runway left for us in nylon and especially in some of what we think are unique and good offerings we have around recycled nylon, so again, our ECOMID series as well as our flame-retardant nylon. So we actually think there's a lot of growth left in nylon with our existing assets, if you will.

是的。馬特，所以我們把目標鎖在尼龍上。我的意思是，幾年前我們在尼龍收購上投入了大量資金，因此我們一直在努力利用我們投資組合的這一部分以及這些收購背後的新能力。而且我認為，坦白說，尼龍領域還有很大的發展空間，特別是在我們認為獨特且優質的再生尼龍產品方面，例如我們的 ECOMID 系列以及阻燃尼龍。因此，我們實際上認為，憑藉我們現有的資產，尼龍領域仍有很大的成長空間。

So as we go forward, we'll continue to sell that as long -- as well as our other polymers. As you think about M&A going forward, our capability going forward, I mean, clearly, there are some other polymers that may be of interest to us. We continue to look for ways to further expand our capability within some of the polymers that we have as well as expand our reach maybe to polymers that are focused on other end-use sources or other geographies that we haven't penetrated as completely.

因此，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將繼續銷售該產品以及我們的其他聚合物。當您考慮未來的併購、我們未來的能力時，我的意思是，顯然，還有一些其他聚合物可能引起我們的興趣。我們將繼續尋找方法，進一步擴大我們在現有某些聚合物領域的生產能力，並將業務範圍擴大到專注於其他最終用途來源或我們尚未完全滲透的其他地區的聚合物。

Okay. And then you had talked about the European compounding footprint consolidation you put out in the press release. That -- and maybe I missed it. But did you highlight any savings or synergies from that rationalization or optimization? Should we expect anything there? Or is it kind of like...

好的。然後您談到了新聞稿中提出的歐洲複合足跡整合。那——也許我錯過了。但是您是否強調過這種合理化或優化所帶來的任何節省或協同效應？我們應該在那裡期待什麼嗎？或有點像...

Yes. No. Look, absolutely. I mean it's a bit tied to a previous question. I mean when we did a series of acquisitions over the last few years, we assumed a certain level of synergies associated with being able to optimize footprint, further improve our compounding capability and skills as well as the polymers that we acquired. And so it usually does take us a few years to really get our handle on the business and see what's happening. You see where those opportunities are. So this announcement of the consolidation of facilities in Europe and establishing a clear compounding center of excellence at Forli, I'd say is just really the natural progression from those acquisitions that we made a number of years ago. And so there's clearly productivity that comes with that as well as we think improvement in development capability, customer support, supply chain optimization, et cetera. I would think of it in terms of -- we typically only do projects that have greater than 20% returns. This one falls into that category, and it will have a 2- to 3-year payout.

是的。不。瞧，絕對如此。我的意思是它與之前的問題有點相關。我的意思是，當我們在過去幾年進行一系列收購時，我們假設了一定程度的協同效應，能夠優化足跡，進一步提高我們的複合能力和技能以及我們收購的聚合物。因此，我們通常需要幾年的時間才能真正掌握業務並了解正在發生的事情。你知道這些機會在哪裡。因此，我認為，宣布整合歐洲的設施並在弗利建立一個明確的複合卓越中心，實際上是我們幾年前進行的收購的自然進展。因此，我們認為這顯然會提高生產力，同時也能提高開發能力、客戶支援、供應鏈優化等。我會這樣想——我們通常只做回報率超過 20% 的項目。該產品就屬於這一類，並且將有 2 至 3 年的回報。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

What's been the growth rate in medical applications in your Engineered Materials business so far this year?

今年到目前為止，貴公司工程材料業務在醫療應用領域的成長率是多少？

So, Jeff, I think the medical applications has been relatively flat year-over-year with some growth in some applications but clearly offset by the decline we've seen this year in elective surgeries and what that has been. Again, I don't think that's a long-term trend. I think, as we have in previous years, we will continue to see mid-digit growth year-on-year in medical. But I think -- so I think this is just a timing impact in terms of elective surgery. But because of that change in elective surgery this year, I would say relatively flat year-to-year.

所以，傑夫，我認為醫療應用與去年同期相比相對持平，一些應用有所增長，但明顯被我們今年看到的選擇性手術的下降所抵消。再說一次，我不認為這是一個長期趨勢。我認為，正如前幾年一樣，我們將繼續看到醫療領域年增中位數。但我認為——所以我認為這只是對選擇性手術的時間影響。但由於今年選擇性手術的變化，我認為年比情況相對穩定。

You have a relatively mild volume forecast in Acetyl Chain for the third quarter relative to the second quarter. Is that because of Celanese's own either restructuring activities or plant turnarounds? Or does it have to do with the rate of the growth of the acetyl industry itself? Maybe you could talk about the growth of the industry in the second quarter versus the growth of the industry in the third quarter.

與第二季相比，您對乙醯鏈第三季的銷售預測相對溫和。這是因為塞拉尼斯自身的重組活動或工廠轉型嗎？或者說這與乙醯基工業本身的成長率有關？也許您可以談談第二季產業成長與第三季產業成長的情況。

Yes. So I mean we did see some good recovery in volumes, quarter 1 to quarter 2, as we saw Asia really coming back earlier. But we saw a lot of decline, obviously, in the Western hemisphere in quarter 2. Now as we move into quarter 3, we do expect, as like I've said, modest volume growth in the Western Hemisphere. But we are being probably a bit conservative here in terms of what we think volume growth will be in the third quarter, just based on what we're seeing as the trend so far.

是的。所以我的意思是，我們確實看到了第一季到第二季交易量的良好復甦，因為我們看到亞洲確實早些時候開始復甦。但顯然，我們在第二季看到西半球出現了大幅下滑。現在進入第三季度，正如我所說的，我們預計西半球的銷量將出現適度增長。但根據我們目前看到的趨勢，我們對第三季銷售成長的預測可能有些保守。

Yes. Jeff, if you look at Q2 on a year-over-year basis, we were down somewhere in the 20% range. If you look at Q3 year-over-year, that's probably more like 10% to 15%. So that modest increase driven by some slight recovery in the Western Hemisphere.

是的。傑夫，如果你從同比角度來看第二季度，我們的銷售額下降了 20% 左右。如果與去年同期相比，第三季的增幅可能更接近 10% 到 15%。因此，這種溫和的增長是由西半球的輕微復甦所推動的。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

If I look at your Acetate Tow earnings in the first half of the year, your equity earnings from the JVs in China are up double digits in percentage terms, while the consolidated sales are down, looks like 22% or so. And so my question is that seems a lot more pronounced than the underlying demographics. Has that mix shift been more acute for Celanese for some reason? So why is that the case? And do you expect it to continue?

如果我看一下你們上半年的醋酸纖維絲束收益，你們在中國的合資企業的股權收益以百分比計算增長了兩位數，而綜合銷售額卻下降了，大約 22% 左右。所以我的問題是，這似乎比潛在的人口統計數據更明顯。出於某種原因，塞拉尼斯的混合結構轉變是否更為劇烈？那為什麼會這樣呢？您預計這種情況會持續下去嗎？

Yes. So Kevin, I mean, I think it's -- there was a onetime event. We had a large contract, which came off at the end which actually shifted volume to our affiliates and took it out of our own earnings. And so that -- you're seeing that shift. That was something that was planned. We've called it out in past quarters. So it really is that shift into affiliate -- of volume coming from our affiliate versus coming from, if you will, Celanese production.

是的。所以凱文，我的意思是，我認為這是——曾經發生過一次事件。我們有一個大合同，但在合約結束時，合約數量實際上轉移到了我們的附屬公司，而這部分收入卻從我們自己的收益中扣除了。所以——你就看到了這種轉變。這是有計劃的事情。我們在過去的幾個季度中已經提到過這一點。因此，這實際上是一種向附屬公司的轉變——產量來自我們的附屬公司，而不是來自塞拉尼斯的生產。

Yes. Kevin, if you can go back to our Investor Day in 2018, we telegraphed this -- that this would be coming.

是的。凱文，如果你能回顧一下我們 2018 年的投資者日，我們曾經預告過這一點——這將會發生。

Understood. And then second question relates to your acetyls business in Asia. In the prepared remarks last night, you referenced the extension of some supply deals in Nanjing as well as Singapore. And so maybe a two-parter. Was there any benefit associated with that in the second quarter? And then longer term, does that have any bearing on your flexibility to rationalize assets in Asia, if and when you eventually proceed with the expansions that you had planned in the United States?

明白了。第二個問題與您在亞洲的乙醯業務有關。在昨晚的準備好的演講中，您提到了延長南京和新加坡的一些供應協議。所以也許是兩個部分。這在第二季有什麼好處嗎？那麼從長遠來看，如果您最終繼續在美國進行擴張計劃，這是否會對您合理化亞洲資產的靈活性產生影響？

Yes. And so look, I mean, these are contracts that have come up in a normal way for renewal. I mean we've been happy renegotiating them in this environment that we've been able to get some additional productivity, working with our supply partners. And so we're happy about the security of supply this gives us in both Nanjing and Singapore, going forward, as well as some additional flexibility we get in these locations, going forward, to really help us better manage our Acetyl Chain. So there will be some productivity out of both of those contracts going forward. Most of that, though, will occur in future years in 2021 and beyond.

是的。所以，我的意思是，這些都是以正常方式續約的合約。我的意思是，我們很高興在這種環境下重新進行談判，透過與供應夥伴合作，我們能夠獲得一些額外的生產力。因此，我們很高興看到這能為南京和新加坡帶來供應安全，同時也為我們在這些地區獲得的一些額外靈活性，這將真正幫助我們更好地管理乙醯基鏈。因此，這兩份合約在未來都會產生一定的效益。不過，其中大部分將在 2021 年及以後的未來幾年發生。

And it does not limit our flexibility, Kevin, to continue with our reconfiguration project in Clear Lake when we start that back up again.

凱文，當我們重新啟動 Clear Lake 的重新配置專案時，它不會限制我們的靈活性，我們可以繼續進行專案。

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, a quick question around the Acetyl Chain and the interplay between product pricing and raw material pricing. I mean if I remember correctly, historically, you guys talked about raw material volatility actually being a favorable -- being favorable for that business line, right? And if we take a look, like you rightly said, through the course of the first half of the year, ethylene pricing came under tremendous pressure. Methanol pricing came under tremendous downside pressure, and everything was kind of going down in a straight line. And now we've seen some buoyancy in ethylene, some buoyancy in methanol. There are enough sort of industry folks out there that expect that buoyancy to be short-lived. So the question really is are you expecting raw material buoyancy going forward? And would that/would that not be a favorable environment for the AC business?

洛里，我想問一個簡單的問題，關於乙醯鏈以及產品定價和原材料定價之間的相互作用。我的意思是，如果我沒記錯的話，從歷史上看，你們談到原材料波動實際上是有利的 - 對該業務線有利，對嗎？如果我們看一下，正如您所說，今年上半年，乙烯價格承受著巨大的壓力。甲醇價格面臨巨大的下行壓力，整體呈現直線下降趨勢。現在我們看到乙烯和甲醇都有一些上漲。有相當多的業內人士預計這種繁榮將是短暫的。所以真正的問題是您是否預期原物料價格未來會上漲？這是否對空調業務來說是一個有利的環境？

Yes. So look, we have been a very low raw material pricing. I mean -- and we've been very low oil. Low oil tends to draw low raws. And normally, when we see low oil, low raws, we actually expect some margin compression in acetyls. We're actually -- we're very pleased in Q2. That gives a really great work by our folks in the Acetyl Chain and constantly pushing the envelope around activations and movement of products into -- throughout the terrain and throughout the geography that we were able to maintain our variable margins and not have any compression.

是的。所以看，我們的原物料價格一直很低。我的意思是——我們的石油供應已經非常低了。低油價往往會吸引低原料。通常情況下，當我們看到低油價、低原料時，我們實際上會預期乙醯基的利潤率會被壓縮。事實上，我們對第二季的表現非常滿意。這讓我們的乙醯基鏈人員做出了非常出色的工作，他們不斷突破產品活化和移動的極限——在整個地形和整個地理範圍內，我們能夠保持可變的利潤率，而不會產生任何壓縮。

Usually, when we see raws going up, we would expect some margin expansion. But I think the way you characterize this is correct. We -- there is some buoyancy, but we are not convinced that, that will remain. Again, we saw the same buoyancy at the beginning of Q2 but then saw raw materials go to some of the lowest that we've experienced in a decade. So although we're seeing some buoyancy at the beginning of Q3, we don't still see any fundamentals that would lead us to believe that, that is sustainable for the quarter.

通常，當我們看到原料價格上漲時，我們會預期利潤率會擴大。但我認為你對此的描述是正確的。我們——有一些活躍的情緒，但我們不相信這種情緒會持續下去。同樣，我們在第二季初看到了同樣的繁榮，但隨後原物料價格跌至十年來的最低水準。因此，儘管我們在第三季初看到了一些活力，但我們仍然沒有看到任何基本面讓我們相信這種活力在本季度是可持續的。

And that buoyancy, we like, Hassan, as you mentioned. I mean that up and down allows us to -- we will flex our assets that are based upon different raw materials and different feedstocks in different regions. And just that uniqueness of the model in acetyls, that up and down, that volatility, we tend to be able to make margins on.

正如您所說，哈桑，我們喜歡這種活力。我的意思是，上下調整使我們能夠——根據不同地區的不同原材料和不同原料靈活運用我們的資產。正是乙醯基模型的獨特性，這種上下波動，讓我們往往能夠獲得利潤。

Very clear. And as a follow-up, again sticking to the Acetyl Chain. Recently, we obviously saw a large incumbent exit that business, and I guess a new entrant will eventually be coming in. And one of the reasons cited for the exit was that the company talked about how they had kind of underinvested in that business over the years, and they wanted to focus on their core business. How are you guys thinking about the evolution of the market with, I guess, that large incumbent leaving, new entrants coming in and some of the statements coming out as reasons behind that exit?

非常清楚。作為後續，再次堅持乙醯鏈。最近，我們明顯看到一家大型現有企業退出了該業務，我想最終會有一家新企業進入。退出的原因之一是該公司表示多年來他們在該業務上的投資不足，他們希望專注於自己的核心業務。我想，你們如何看待市場的演變，例如大型現有企業的退出、新企業的進入以及一些關於退出背後原因的聲明？

Yes. Look, INEOS is an experienced player in the business. We don't see any meaningful change in terms of the industry dynamics or competitiveness of the industry within INEOS replacing BP, so we don't see any change. Look, I think there's a lot of reasons that transaction took place. I think INEOS will be a good steward of the business. And while they have an interest in expansion, I also don't believe that these margins, anybody is going to be interested in investing in these businesses at this level of margin.

是的。看起來，INEOS 是該行業經驗豐富的參與者。我們沒有看到 INEOS 取代 BP 在產業動態或產業競爭力方面發生任何有意義的變化，所以我們沒有看到任何變化。聽著，我認為發生這筆交易的原因有很多。我認為 INEOS 將會成為該業務的優秀管理者。儘管他們對擴張感興趣，但我也不相信這些利潤率，任何人都會對以這種利潤水平投資這些業務感興趣。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Yes. So Lori, I just wanted to follow up on some of your recent comments. Just kind of stepping back, over the last 3 years, in particular, the Acetyl Chain has been very opportunistic in kind of flexing its global network and optimizing margins along the chain of molecules. I guess the question is are opportunities going to be as plentiful in a diminished sort of global demand growth scenario where there's considerable excess capacity, as you pointed out?

是的。所以 Lori，我只是想跟進你最近的一些評論。回顧過去 3 年，特別是過去 3 年，乙醯基鏈一直非常善於利用機會來調整其全球網路並優化分子鏈上的利潤率。我想問題是，正如您所指出的，在全球需求成長放緩、產能過剩的情況下，機會是否還會那麼多？

Yes. Look, we -- as we've said before, I mean, we really think our acetyl model is unique. It's unique in the breadth of the portfolio, in terms of going all the way from methanol in a way now to redispersible powders. And it's unique in the fact that we have 3 very distinct routes for raw material to end-use products that move in different geographies, and that gives us a lot of optionality that others in the industry just can't replicate. And so we think that opportunity continues through every scenario going forward.

是的。看，我們——正如我們之前所說的，我的意思是，我們真的認為我們的乙醯模型是獨一無二的。就產品組合的廣度而言，它獨一無二，從某種程度上來說，已經涵蓋了從甲醇到可再分散粉末的所有產品。它的獨特之處在於，我們有 3 條截然不同的路線，從原材料到最終用途產品，運輸路線遍布不同的地區，這給了我們許多其他公司無法複製的選擇權。因此我們認為，在未來的每一種情況下，機會都會繼續存在。

Look, acetyls will tend to grow at the rate of GDP. We tended to maybe even outpace that a little bit, given the optionality, given our focus on end-use customers and some of the derivatives in the Acetyl Chain. So I don't see that changing going forward. We think acetyls continues to be a high-margin business, maybe considered a commodity product, but we do not operate it in a commodity way.

你看，乙醯基將會以 GDP 的速度成長。考慮到可選性、考慮到我們對最終用途客戶和乙醯鏈中的某些衍生物的關注，我們甚至可能略微超過這一水平。所以我認為這種情況未來不會改變。我們認為乙醯基仍然是一個高利潤的業務，也許被視為一種商品產品，但我們不會以商品的方式經營它。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just kind of thinking through the past few months, I mean, obviously, the pandemic has impacted each of the major regions differently. Just looking through the lens of Celanese, are the Western regions recovering in line with maybe what you experienced in China? Or is it still too early to tell?

好的。這很有幫助。然後回顧過去幾個月，我的意思是，顯然疫情對每個主要地區的影響不同。僅從塞拉尼斯的角度來看，西方地區的復甦是否與中國所經歷的一樣？還是現在下結論還太早？

I think it's a little too early to tell. I mean China has had a fast recovery within China. I would say what has not fully recovered yet in China is exports from China. And you may recall, last quarter, we called out one of the things we're looking for on recovery is when do China exports get back to previous levels because that's a good indication of Western Hemisphere recovery. So starting to see some exports again but clearly not up to full level.

我認為現在說這個還為時過早。我的意思是中國國內經濟已經快速復甦。我想說的是，中國尚未完全恢復的是出口。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們指出，我們在復甦過程中關注的事情之一是中國出口何時能恢復到以前的水平，因為這是西半球復甦的一個好指標。因此，我們開始再次看到一些出口，但顯然尚未達到全面水平。

I think the U.S., we're seeing -- we saw pretty good signs of recovery, especially in auto. How sustainable that is? I think we'll have to see what happens with COVID. And do we see the economy continue to open up? Do we see it start to contract again? I mean that's our concern going forward. I think Europe has been a little more sluggish initially but seems to be coming out of COVID a bit stronger, so maybe we see that continuing. So I think it is very mixed by region, both at the pace and also both about the certainty in the future. And I think we continue to watch the same things. We're looking for signs of Western Hemisphere recovery, a lot of which can be measured by what our export is doing in China.

我認為我們看到了美國相當好的復甦跡象，尤其是在汽車領域。這種做法的可持續性如何？我認為我們必須看看 COVID 會發生什麼。我們是否看到經濟持續開放？我們是否看到它再次開始收縮？我的意思是這是我們今後關注的問題。我認為歐洲最初經濟稍微低迷一些，但似乎正在從新冠疫情中走出來，變得更加強勁，所以我們可能會看到這種情況持續下去。因此，我認為，無論是在速度上，還是在未來的確定性上，不同地區的情況都是很複雜的。我認為我們會繼續關注同樣的事情。我們正在尋找西半球復甦的跡象，其中許多可以透過我們對中國的出口表現來衡量。

The next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Just in Engineered Materials, why were volumes down in June? And how are they trending year-over-year in July?

僅在工程材料方面，為什麼 6 月銷量下降了？7 月與去年同期相比趨勢如何？

Yes. So I would say June volumes were up -- actually up from May, and July is up from June, and August is trending pretty consistently with July. At this point, we don't really have any visibility at this point on September but steady, monthly, good progression from May through July.

是的。所以我想說，6 月份的交易量實際上比 5 月份有所上升，7 月份的交易量也比 6 月份有所上升，而 8 月份的趨勢與 7 月份基本一致。目前，我們對 9 月的情況還沒有任何預測，但從 5 月到 7 月，每個月的進展都比較穩定、良好。

Yes. And, David, for the quarter in Q3, we're kind of looking at 10% to 15% down year-over-year, if that's helpful. And it's a little different. Typically, August, we would see volumes come down versus July. We're not seeing that dip in the order book, just given the differences that we're seeing this year.

是的。大衛，對於第三季度，我們預計將同比下降 10% 至 15%，如果這有幫助的話。這有點不同。通常情況下，八月的交易量會比七月下降。考慮到今年出現的差異，我們並沒有看到訂單量的下降。

That's helpful. And just, Lori, you mentioned Ibn Sina having the big earnings decline in Q2 due to the low oil prices. They've come back a little bit. So how do you think about Ibn Sina's earnings in the back half of the year at a little bit higher oil price?

這很有幫助。洛里，您剛才提到，由於油價低迷，伊本西納第二季的獲利大幅下滑。他們已經回來一點了。那麼，在油價略高的情況下，您如何看待伊本西納今年下半年的獲利？

Yes. So we -- look, we did see Ibn Sina come down in second quarter due to low oil prices. Again, Ibn Sina has the quarter delay. So that's low oil prices in Q1. Obviously, those low oil prices continued in Q2, which we will now see show up in our Q3 earnings. And then Q4, who knows? Hopefully, a bit back up as we start to see oil going up again.

是的。因此，我們確實看到，由於油價低迷，伊本西納的股價在第二季出現下跌。再次，伊本西那有一個季度的延遲。因此第一季的油價很低。顯然，低油價在第二季持續存在，我們將在第三季的收益中看到這一點。然後是第四季度，誰知道呢？隨著油價再次上漲，希望價格能回升。

The next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

I appreciate some of the commentary with respect to the second quarter and the third quarter. I was wondering if I could get a little more granular in terms of the monthly progression that you saw through the second quarter. And how has July actually been coming in, in terms of your volumes?

我很欣賞有關第二季和第三季的一些評論。我想知道我是否可以更詳細地介紹一下您在第二季度看到的月度進度。就銷量而言，七月的實際情況如何？

Yes. So I mean for both EM and for acetyls, I would say we -- the same trend is true. I mean we definitely saw July being stronger than June, and we're seeing August coming in pretty consistent with July, both in terms of volume and margin.

是的。所以我的意思是，對於 EM 和乙醯基來說，我想說我們——同樣的趨勢是正確的。我的意思是，我們確實看到 7 月份的表現強於 6 月份，我們看到 8 月份的表現與 7 月份相當一致，無論是銷量還是利潤率。

And the fact that August is coming in consistent with July would be more positive than you've seen in prior years. Is that correct?

八月份的情況與七月一致，這一事實比往年更為積極。對嗎？

Yes. No. That's correct. Because usually, we see the impact, especially in Europe, of extended vacation periods. And we are anecdotally hearing some workplaces in Europe are not shutting down in August, like they typically do, because they've already been down for so long. And so we think that's pulling through in a bit more strength in August than we typically see.

是的。不。沒錯。因為通常我們會看到延長假期的影響，尤其是在歐洲。我們也聽說，歐洲的一些工作場所並沒有像往常一樣在 8 月關閉，因為它們已經停工很長時間了。因此，我們認為 8 月的勢頭將比我們通常看到的要強勁一些。

Very, very helpful. And you suggested that industry operating rates in the second quarter for acetic acid were in the mid-60s, and VAM was in the mid-70s during the second quarter. Where are those numbers now?

非常非常有幫助。您指出，第二季醋酸產業的開工率在 60% 左右，而 VAM 的開工率在 70% 左右。這些數字現在在哪裡？

They aren't significantly moved from Q2 in terms of overall global operating rates.

就全球整體營運率而言，與第二季相比並沒有顯著變化。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just curious. You talked previously about the opportunity for about $0.50 from productivity/supply chain investments as well as $0.50 from buybacks. Could you just update us on the possibility of realizing that over the next 1.5 years or so?

只是好奇。您之前談到了從生產力/供應鏈投資中獲得約 0.50 美元的機會以及從回購中獲得 0.50 美元的機會。您能否向我們介紹一下在未來 1.5 年左右實現這一目標的可能性？

Yes. So I'm completely confident in our ability to achieve the $0.50 from productivity. Year-to-date, we're at $135 million of productivity that -- so 2/3 of the way already to the $200 million target that was associated with that 50% -- that $0.50. So I feel very confident we'll get that $200 million.

是的。所以我對我們透過生產力實現 0.50 美元目標的能力充滿信心。年初至今，我們的生產力已達到 1.35 億美元，即已完成與 50%（即 0.50 美元）相關的 2 億美元目標的 2/3。所以我非常有信心我們能獲得這2億美元。

Just to put it in perspective where that comes from, so about 1/3 of that productivity comes from optimization of our footprint and other manufacturing optimization; about 1/3 comes from raw material and logistic productivity; and then about 1/3 from revenue optimization, SG&A and kind of everything else. So given that, it's a very balanced way we get productivity. I feel completely comfortable we'll achieve at least that $200 million target. And you might recall, we also have another $30 million to $40 million of onetime cost savings in 2020 that we expect to get this year, which will be even a bit more help, so things like travel reduction, additional manufacturing savings associated with slowdowns, the shutdowns and corporate functions, et cetera. So feel very comfortable in that $0.50. I mean on the $0.50 share buyback, clearly, our balance sheet is in a good position right now. And so we feel like that's certainly achievable. But let me hand it to Scott.

為了更清楚地說明這些生產力的來源，大約 1/3 的生產力來自我們足跡的優化和其他製造優化；大約 1/3 來自原材料和物流生產力；然後大約 1/3 來自收入優化、銷售、一般及行政費用以及其他一切。因此，考慮到這一點，這是我們獲得生產力的一種非常平衡的方式。我完全有信心我們至少能夠實現 2 億美元的目標。您可能還記得，我們​​預計今年還將在 2020 年實現 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的一次性成本節約，這將會提供更多幫助，例如減少差旅費，以及與經濟放緩、停工和公司職能相關的額外製造成本節約等等。所以對那 0.50 美元感到很舒服。我的意思是，就 0.50 美元的股票回購而言，顯然我們的資產負債表目前處於良好狀態。因此我們覺得這肯定是可以實現的。但讓我把它交給斯科特。

Yes. So Arun, we did a little over $100 million in the first part of the year, which will get us some of that. We announced $500 million as part of the Polyplastics deal which will make that an accretive transaction, so we'll get a little bit more from that. And then you've got the balance of the $800 million from that deal that will be deployed, either through M&A or additional repurchases into next year. So between all of that, we should exceed that $0.50 that we had originally called out as we get into the middle part of next year.

是的。所以阿倫，我們在今年上半年的營收略高於 1 億美元，這將為我們帶來一些收益。我們宣布將斥資 5 億美元作為寶理塑膠交易的一部分，這將使其成為一項增值交易，因此我們將從中獲得更多收益。然後，您將獲得該交易的 8 億美元餘額，這些餘額將透過併購或明年的額外回購進行部署。因此，到明年年中，我們的預期收入應該會超過最初預測的 0.50 美元。

Great. And maybe if I could just get your perspective on acetic and VAM pricing as you go through the rest of this year and maybe even to next year, I mean, is it fair to assume that there's going to be a limited opportunity there, just given low operating rates and maybe methanol remaining relatively low as well? How are you looking at kind of overall pricing opportunities in the AC chain?

偉大的。也許我可以聽聽您對今年剩餘時間甚至明年醋酸和 VAM 定價的看法，我的意思是，是否可以公平地假設那裡的機會有限，因為開工率低，而且甲醇的價格也保持在相對較低的水平？您如何看待空調連鎖店中的整體定價機會？

Yes. So I think if we look at the entirety of the AC chain, I think pricing will tend to move with raws. I think we won't see a lot of margin compression, but I'm not sure, given the low capacity utilization, we'll also see a lot of opportunity for margin expansion. And so while we may see pricing go up. I don't -- if raws go up, I don't think we'll see a lot of additional margin there.

是的。因此，我認為，如果我們看整個 AC 鏈，我認為定價將隨著原材料而變動。我認為我們不會看到利潤率大幅壓縮，但我不確定，鑑於產能利用率低，我們還會看到很多利潤率擴大的機會。因此我們可能會看到價格上漲。我不認為——如果原料價格上漲，我們不會看到太多額外的利潤。

I think there's probably a little more opportunity in VAM and downstream of acetic acid as those can have slightly higher utilizations already. And especially now as we move -- remain in a strong construction season through Q3, there may continue to be some opportunities there on pricing. But again, as we move into Q4, that tends to fall off a bit.

我認為 VAM 和乙酸下游領域可能存在更多機會，因為它們的利用率已經略高一些。尤其是現在，隨著第三季建築業的強勁發展，定價方面可能仍存在一些機會。但隨著我們進入第四季度，這一數字又會有所下降。

Our next question comes from William Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 William Blair。

Lori, it's Matthew Blair with TPH. I was wondering how you're thinking about free cash flow targets for 2020. At one point, you're aiming for about $900 million, then COVID hit. But you're still at $418 million year-to-date. You've also outlined the extra $400 million of tailwinds from things like productivity and lower CapEx. So do you think something like, I don't know, $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion of free cash flow in 2020 is a good range?

洛瑞，我是 TPH 的馬修布萊爾。我想知道您對 2020 年自由現金流目標有何看法。有一次，你的目標金額約為 9 億美元，然後疫情來襲。但今年迄今為止，你的收入仍為 4.18 億美元。您還概述了生產力和較低資本支出等方面帶來的額外 4 億美元順風因素。那麼，您是否認為，2020 年 10 億美元至 12 億美元的自由現金流是一個不錯的範圍？

Look, we've previously -- before COVID, we were looking at a range of $800 million to $900 million of free cash flow. As we went into COVID, we've obviously clearly been fixated on free cash flow and making sure we take steps to try to preserve free cash flow. We did identify the $400 million that you referenced of additional steps we can take on free cash flow. But again, we've also had a pretty large EBIT decline associated with COVID volumes and margins. So we still think we're -- that given our strong first half performance that we will be north of the $800 million mark on free cash flow that we had laid out earlier.

你看，在 COVID 爆發之前，我們預計自由現金流將在 8 億至 9 億美元之間。當我們進入 COVID 時，我們顯然一直專注於自由現金流，並確保採取措施嘗試保持自由現金流。我們確實確定了您提到的 4 億美元我們可以採取的自由現金流額外措施。但同樣，由於 COVID 銷售和利潤率的原因，我們的息稅前利潤也出現了相當大的下降。因此，我們仍然認為，鑑於我們上半年的強勁表現，我們的自由現金流將超過我們先前設定的 8 億美元目標。

That's helpful. And then the release noted that turnaround costs in 2021 would be meaningfully lower. Can you share any numbers around that, and in particular, any details by segment?

這很有幫助。隨後，新聞稿指出，2021 年的周轉成本將顯著降低。您能否分享一些相關數據，特別是各個細分市場的詳細資訊？

Yes. So on turnaround, we will be meaningfully lower in 2021. If you look at where we are earlier this year, again pre-COVID, we thought turnarounds were in the $70 million to $80 million for 2020. We've now pulled in the Frankfurt POM, which is $20 million to $30 million. So this year, our outlook -- total outlook for turnarounds will be in the $90 million to $110 million range. In 2021, that goes back to $20 million to $30 million. And I would -- that $20 million to $30 million is pretty evenly split between EM and AC.

是的。因此，從扭轉局面的角度來看，2021 年我們的獲利水準將顯著下降。如果你看看今年稍早的情況，也就是新冠疫情之前，我們認為 2020 年的獲利額將在 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元之間。我們現在已經獲得了法蘭克福 POM，金額為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。因此，我們預計今年的扭虧為盈總額將在 9,000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元之間。到 2021 年，這一數字將回升至 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。我認為 2000 萬到 3000 萬美元在 EM 和 AC 之間分配得相當均等。

The next question comes from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

This is Bhavesh Lodaya for John. First, on your commentary for the third quarter. So it looks like, obviously, sequentially, EM is expected to see strong growth. And then the rest of the segment will be more balanced with their own pluses and minuses. So if we add the $60 million of EBIT or so to the EM and keep the rest unchanged from sequential 2Q levels, we are looking at, call it, $260 million of EBIT for the next quarter. So the question is, is it as straightforward as that? Or obviously, any macro surprises could impact that. But are there any other moving pieces which can cause this target to move materially?

我是 Bhavesh Lodaya，代表約翰。首先，請談談您對第三季的評論。因此，顯然，新興市場預計將連續實現強勁成長。然後，其餘部分將更加平衡其各自的優點和缺點。因此，如果我們將 6000 萬美元左右的息稅前利潤添加到 EM，並將其餘部分與第二季度的連續水平保持不變，那麼我們預計下一季的息稅前利潤將達到 2.6 億美元。那麼問題是，事情真的這麼簡單嗎？或者顯然，任何宏觀意外都可能對此產生影響。但是，還有其他活動部件可以導致該目標發生實質移動嗎？

Yes. So we are really suggesting, for Q3, the recovery will be in EM. We expect to recover about 50% of the decline we saw Q1 to Q2, we expect to recover going back into Q3. We also get some help from not having a Bishop turnaround in Q3, but that's offset by some further decline in Ibn Sina. And again, in AC and Tow, we expect them to be relatively flat with Q2 performance.

是的。因此，我們實際上建議，對於第三季而言，復甦將在新興市場發生。我們預計第一季至第二季的跌幅將恢復約 50%，並預計在第三季恢復。我們也從第三季度沒有出現主教轉變中獲得了一定幫助，但這被伊本西納的進一步下滑所抵消。再次，在 AC 和 Tow 方面，我們預計它們的表現將與第二季持平。

Got it. And then if we move to the 2021 comment, you mentioned that you expect demand growth for 2021 to be beyond 2019 levels. Is the implication that you could see higher earnings as well in 2021 versus '19 levels? Or does pricing and other headwinds remain kind of like the big unknowns?

知道了。然後，如果我們轉到 2021 年的評論，您提到預計 2021 年的需求成長將超過 2019 年的水準。這是否意味著 2021 年的收入將比 2019 年的水準更高？或者定價和其他不利因素仍然是未知數？

Yes. So I think for -- we expect for AC demand levels probably similar to 2019. For EM, we would expect, assuming that the demand trajectory continues, level similar to 2019 with maybe some upside due to the project wins that we are having this year in fairly robust sectors like EV, like 5G, like medical that we think may give us some upside next year versus 2019.

是的。所以我認為——我們預計空調需求水準可能與 2019 年相似。對於新興市場，假設需求軌跡繼續下去，我們預計其水準將與 2019 年相似，並且可能存在一些上漲空間，因為我們今年在電動車、5G、醫療等相當強勁的領域贏得了一些項目，我們認為這些項目可能會為我們明年帶來比 2019 年更高的上漲空間。

Yes. Bhavesh, I think the timing of when we see the full recovery will be -- will kind of determine exactly where the overall annual earnings end up. If we finish this year and start next year at demand levels similar to '19 at the beginning of the year, then, yes, I think that's a decent assumption. However, if we see things still kind of ramping back to those levels as we begin the year, you may not get to that level till somewhere in the middle part of the year. So there's just the level of visibility we have still to where we'll see that recovery and when we'll see it get back to those levels, it's still a little bit uncertain.

是的。巴韋什，我認為全面復甦的時機將決定全年整體收益的最終水平。如果我們今年年底和明年年初的需求水準與 2019 年年初相似，那麼，是的，我認為這是一個不錯的假設。然而，如果我們看到情況在年初時仍然回落到那些水平，那麼可能要到年中才能達到那個水平。因此，我們對於何時能看到經濟復甦以及何時能看到經濟恢復到以前的水平仍然有點不確定。

Jesse, we'll go ahead and make the next question the last one for the call.

傑西，我們繼續，下一個問題是本次電話會議的最後一個問題。

Our final question comes from the line of Jim Sheehan with SunTrust.

我們的最後一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan。

Can you comment on acetic acid inventory levels in China and also the reports of high water levels on the Yangtze River impacting shipments from Nanjing. Are you seeing any shipment delays because of this?

您能否評論一下中國的醋酸庫存水準以及有關長江水位過高影響南京發貨的報道？您是否發現因此導致的貨物延誤？

Yes. So inventory levels, generally, globally, are reasonably low for acetic acid. I mean there has been some build in other products made from acetic acid in China associated with the lack of exports, so we have yet to see how that play out.

是的。因此，整體而言，全球範圍內醋酸的庫存水準相當低。我的意思是，由於出口不足，中國其他由醋酸製成的產品增加，所以我們還沒有看到其後果。

I will say on the Yangtze, we have not seen any impact at all to our operations associated with high water levels or otherwise. We've not had any supply chain problems.

我想說的是，在長江上，我們尚未發現因高水位或其他原因而對我們的營運造成任何影響。我們沒有遇到任何供應鏈問題。

And can you comment on political proposals to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28%? How much impact might that have on your effective tax rate?

您能評論一下將美國企業稅率提高到 28% 的政治提案嗎？這對您的有效稅率有多大影響？

Scott?

史考特？

Yes. Jim, we're still working through those, and I think it's really too early to say. Obviously, we have a pretty global network, and so you won't see it straight flow through to all of our earnings. So we will continue to look at that. And a lot would depend upon where demand levels are broadly from a global perspective.

是的。吉姆，我們仍在努力解決這些問題，我認為現在說還為時過早。顯然，我們擁有一個相當全球化的網絡，因此你不會看到它直接流入我們的所有收入。因此我們將繼續關注這個問題。從全球角度來看，這很大程度上取決於需求水準。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session, so I'll turn the floor back over to Mr. Paul for any additional closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束，因此我將把發言權交還給保羅先生，請他補充結束語。

All right. Thank you, Jesse. We thank you for your questions and listening in today. As usual, we are available after the call for any further questions you might have. Jesse, feel free to close out the call at this time.

好的。謝謝你，傑西。感謝您今天的提問和收聽。與往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍會回答您的其他問題。傑西，現在可以結束通話了。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Once again, we thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您的參與，現在您可以斷開線路了。