塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Celanese Q3 2021 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯2021年第三季財報電話會議及網路直播。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Brandon Ayache。請您發言。

Thank you, Kevin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese Corporation distributed its third quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

謝謝，凱文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2021年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁布蘭登‧阿亞什 (Brandon Ayache)。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼首席執行官洛里·賴爾克 (Lori Ryerkerk) 和首席財務官斯科特·理查森 (Scott Richardson)。塞拉尼斯公司已透過美國商業資訊 (Business Wire) 發布其第三季財報，並於昨天下午在投資者關係網站上發布了關於本季的備忘評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC. Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll go ahead and open the line for your questions.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。今天的演示還將包含前瞻性陳述。請閱讀新聞稿末尾關於前瞻性陳述的警示性措辭以及準備好的評論。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。由於我們昨天已經發布了準備好的評論，因此我們將開放您的提問熱線。

Kevin, please go ahead and open the line.

凱文，請繼續並接通電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Just in Engineered Materials, you only had a modest volume hit sequentially despite, obviously, the auto situation got more challenging in the quarter, and you found other high-value places to put that volume. So I guess as we think about 2022 and 2023, when that auto volume comes back, presumably, you're not going to -- I guess, my question is, is that incremental on top of where you've already put this other volume? Or do you anticipate shifting some of that -- having to shift some of that volume back to your auto customers?

僅在工程材料領域，儘管本季度汽車行業的情況顯然變得更具挑戰性，但你們的銷量環比僅略有增長，而且你們找到了其他高價值領域來投放這些銷量。因此，我想，當我們展望2022年和2023年，當汽車行業的銷量恢復時，你們大概不會…我的問題是，這是否會在你們已經投放的其他銷量的基礎上增加？還是你們預計會將其中一部分——不得不將部分銷售轉移回汽車客戶？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Vincent. If we look at Q3, auto builds were down pretty significantly globally, like 12% down from the prior quarter. And certainly, that had some impact on us. What I would say is, though it had less impact on us, as -- just given the nature of where we are. I mean, if we really look at our Q3 volumes, they were down into auto only about 1%. And there's a couple of reasons for that.

是的。謝謝你的提問，文森。如果我們看一下第三季度，全球汽車產量下降相當顯著，比上一季下降了12%。這當然對我們產生了一些影響。我想說的是，雖然考慮到我們目前的狀況，它對我們的影響較小。我的意思是，如果我們仔細看看我們第三季的銷量，汽車銷量僅下降了約1%。這有幾個原因。

One is, if you look at -- we have shifted our portfolio more to electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are actually up about 35% year-on-year in terms of builds, and we expect that to continue into next year. And because we have so much more exposure now to electric vehicles, so think about lithium-ion battery separator film, which has grown 40% year-on-year. Even though only about 10% to 15% of our portfolio now goes to electric vehicles, that still did -- went a long way in kind of negating the impact we saw from the overall decline in auto builds.

一是，如果你看一下——我們已經將投資組合更多地轉向電動車。電動車的生產量實際上年增了約35%，我們預計這種成長趨勢將持續到明年。而且，由於我們現在對電動車的投資比以前多得多，所以想想鋰離子電池隔膜，它的產量比去年同期增加了40%。儘管目前我們投資組合中只有大約10%到15%用於電動車，但這仍然在很大程度上抵消了汽車產量整體下滑帶來的影響。

So what I would say is, yes, while we did shift some volume out of auto, we also have the shift within auto which allowed us to keep -- really get through the quarter with very little volume loss into end markets. And we did see some more shift into other applications like industrial and electrical, which were strong during the quarter. But I would say actually more of the shift was probably within auto into the EV, which is consistent with the strategy that we laid out at the end of 2019.

所以我想說的是，是的，雖然我們確實將一些銷量轉移出了汽車市場，但我們在汽車市場內部也進行了轉移，這使得我們能夠在整個季度保持終端市場的銷售損失很小。我們也確實看到了一些其他應用領域的轉移，例如工業和電氣應用，這些應用在本季表現強勁。但我想說，實際上更多的轉移可能是在汽車領域，轉向了電動車領域，這與我們在2019年底制定的策略一致。

Yes. And Vincent, we wouldn't expect to give that volume up as auto recovers in '22 and '23. So we think about the auto recovery kind of being on top of that.

是的。文森特，我們預計不會放棄這個銷量，因為2022年和2023年汽車銷量會恢復。所以我們認為汽車銷售恢復應該會高於這個銷售量。

Yes. And then if you think where that volume is going to come from, because we did run pretty full in Q3, but we did lose about 8 Kt of production in Q3 due to the unavailability of raw materials, be that resin or glass fiber or flame retardants. So as we -- as those issues resolve themselves, hopefully, through the end of the year and into next year, that's the additional volume that we'll be able to put into both auto and our other end-use applications.

是的。那麼，如果您考慮這些產量從何而來，因為我們在第三季度的產能確實非常滿，但由於原材料（無論是樹脂、玻璃纖維還是阻燃劑）短缺，我們在第三季度確實損失了約8千噸的產量。因此，隨著這些問題得到解決，希望在今年年底和明年，這些額外的產量將能夠投入汽車和其他終端應用領域。

Great. And then if I could just ask on the $100 million, it was $50 million in EM and $50 million in AC. How does that trend -- in your sort of '22 and '23 assumptions, does that -- are you assuming that, that sort of normalizes and you get it back? Or are you just sort of assuming it stays the same?

太好了。然後我想問一下，關於那1億美元，其中5000萬美元用於新興市場（EM），5000萬美元用於競爭性支出（AC）。這種趨勢如何？在您2022年和2023年的假設中，您是假設這種情況會正常化，然後您就能收回成本嗎？還是您只是假設它保持不變？

Yes. I think just as we assume product prices and EBIT margins are going to normalize as we move through Q -- 2022, so probably towards the -- in the second half of 2022, and we're assuming normalized prices in 2023, we also assume that those inflationary pressures in energy and in raw materials will also normalize in that time. So think about it as margins normalizing through the second half of 2022 and be normalized for 2023.

是的。我認為，正如我們假設產品價格和息稅前利潤率將在2022年第四季（很可能是在2022年下半年）恢復正常，並且我們假設價格在2023年恢復正常一樣，我們也假設能源和原材料的通膨壓力也將在那時恢復正常。因此，利潤率將在2022年下半年恢復正常，並在2023年恢復正常。

Our next question today is coming from John Roberts from UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Do you or your syngas supplier in Nanjing need to make structural changes to avoid the energy curtailments in the future?

您或您在南京的合成氣供應商是否需要進行結構性改變以避免未來能源短缺？

Yes. Look, I mean I think it's an interesting question. I mean it's hard to know what structural changes you would make, simply because the entire economy of China is based on coal gasification. So we don't really know what to expect in terms of energy curtailments in the future.

是的。我覺得這是一個很有趣的問題。很難知道你會做出什麼樣的結構性改變，因為中國整個經濟都建立在煤炭氣化的基礎上。所以我們真的不知道未來能源削減方面會發生什麼。

What I would say is, look, we have seen this happen in China from time to time as a result of their Blue Sky initiatives, whether it's for the Olympics or some other things. And so we're not going to speculate on what's driving this energy curtailment. But while we expect the curtailments to be moderate in the fourth quarter, we don't really know what to expect yet for next year. So I think it's a little early to address this.

我想說的是，我們在中國看到這種情況時有發生，這源於他們實施的“藍天保衛戰”，無論是為了奧運會還是其他什麼原因。所以我們不會去猜測導致這種能源削減的原因。雖然我們預期第四季的削減幅度會比較溫和，但明年的預期還不得而知。所以我認為現在討論這個問題還為時過早。

What I would say is we are a little different than some of our competition in China, just in terms of what else our syngas provider does. So they have some choices that they can make about where the syngas go, whether it comes to us or whether it goes into olefins. And frankly, right now, economically, it makes more sense for it to come to us.

我想說的是，我們與中國的一些競爭對手略有不同，尤其是在合成氣供應商的其他業務方面。因此，他們在合成氣的去向方面可以做一些選擇，是交給我們，還是用來生產烯烴。坦白說，目前從經濟角度來看，交給我們更合理。

And then back on the engineered plastics question. It takes a while to get specced into new applications. So I assume that rapid pivot to make up the lost auto volume, that was existing applications that you've had that just surged?

回到工程塑膠的問題。它需要一段時間才能適應新的應用。所以我認為快速轉型是為了彌補汽車銷售的損失，也就是你們之前已經出現激增的現有應用？

Yes. Look, we're seeing strong demand across all sectors of Engineered Materials. So I would say any volume we can make, we can sell to an existing customer for an existing application.

是的。我們看到工程材料各領域的需求都很強勁。所以我認為，只要我們能生產，就能賣給現有客戶，滿足現有應用的需求。

That said, in the Q3, we had 815 project wins. We continue to grow quarter-on-quarter in terms of the number of project wins we have. And the value of those project wins in Q3 was up 11% versus the prior year. So we are getting new projects all the time. They tend to be higher-margin projects that we're able to close and they're higher-volume projects. So if you look at that going forward, it just says, our ability to shift between areas, as we're essentially in a sole position, will continue to be where we can continue to ship volumes into high-margin products.

話雖如此，在第三季度，我們贏得了815個項目。就項目數量而言，我們繼續保持環比增長。第三季這些項目的價值比去年同期成長了11%。所以我們一直在獲得新項目。這些項目往往利潤率更高，我們能夠完成，而且專案量也更大。因此，展望未來，這意味著，由於我們基本上處於領先地位，我們在不同領域之間轉換的能力將繼續取決於我們能否繼續為高利潤產品提供大批量產品。

Yes. John, if you recall a couple of years ago when Lori came in, one of the first things we did was do a robust strategy refresh. And what came out of that was the high-growth program focus that Tom Kelly and the Engineered Materials team talked about at our Investor Day. And so a lot of that effort around 5G, electric vehicles, medical, et cetera, was started 2 years ago, and we're really starting to see the pipeline pay off from that here now a couple of years into that work. And so I would say it's -- there's always some short-term stuff, but a lot of this is things we've now been working for a couple of years.

是的。約翰，如果你還記得幾年前洛里加入的時候，我們做的第一件事就是對策略進行了一次強有力的更新。最終，我們制定了高成長項目重點，湯姆凱利和工程材料團隊在投資者日上談到了這一點。我們在5G、電動車、醫療等領域的大量投入是在兩年前開始的，現在，經過幾年的努力，我們終於開始看到這些投入帶來的回報。所以，我想說的是──總是會有一些短期的事情，但其中很多是我們已經投入了幾年的時間。

Our next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Are average acetic acid prices in China and Europe and average VAM prices in China and Europe likely to be higher in the fourth quarter than they were in the third or comparable?

第四季中國和歐洲的醋酸平均價格以及中國和歐洲的VAM平均價格是否有可能比第三季更高或持平？

Yes. It's a great question, Jeff. We hope we can answer that. As we look towards the fourth quarter for pricing, I think we did see Q3 moderate from Q2, I mean, down about 15% in China. Similarly, though, we saw Western Hemisphere prices for acetic acid go up 15%.

是的。傑夫，這個問題問得很好。我們希望能夠回答。展望第四季的價格走勢，我認為第三季的價格確實比第二季有所緩和，也就是說，中國市場價格下降了約15%。但同樣地，西半球醋酸價格上漲了15%。

So I think right now, after the brief surge we had in prices following the energy curtailment, acetic acid has settled in now to kind of that $1,000 per ton price. So that's a little above Q3, but I do expect it's going to continue to moderate over the quarter. So I guess on average, our best view at this point is probably Q4 will look similar to Q3 in terms of averages for acetic acid.

所以我認為，在經歷了能源削減後價格短暫上漲之後，目前醋酸價格已經穩定在每噸1000美元左右。這略高於第三季的價格，但我預計本季價格將繼續回落。因此，就平均價格而言，我們目前的最佳預測是，第四季醋酸的平均價格可能與第三季持平。

I think VAM is a little trickier. We have seen a surge in VAM pricing following the energy curtailment as -- not just our VAM capacity, which was shut down for a few weeks, but others' VAM capacity was shut down because these are more highly energy-intensive processes in the Acetyl Chain. So we have seen more loss of VAM capacity in China. With the higher raw materials, we've seen some of that capacity slow to come back or additional capacity stay down.

我認為VAM的情況有點棘手。我們看到，在限電之後，VAM價格飆升——不僅僅是我們的VAM產能（停產了幾週），其他企業的VAM產能也停產了，因為這些是乙醯基鏈中能耗更高的工序。因此，我們看到中國VAM產能損失加劇。由於原物料價格上漲，我們看到部分產能恢復緩慢，或新增產能停滯。

So VAM prices remain quite high, I mean, record levels, well over $2,000 a ton. And I think we're not seeing any falloff in demand for VAM and for downstream VAM derivatives just because there are such low inventories, as you may be hearing from others on their calls, in the chain. So I would expect VAM pricing to -- it's quite high in Q3, but I would expect that to stay at that level or possibly even a little stronger as we go into Q4, which would offset any further softening we see in acetic acid.

因此，VAM 價格仍然相當高，我的意思是，創下了歷史新高，遠遠超過每噸 2,000 美元。而且我認為，我們不會因為庫存如此之低就看到 VAM 及其下游 VAM 衍生品的需求下降，正如您可能在供應鏈中聽到的其他人的電話會議一樣。因此，我預計 VAM 價格——它在第三季度相當高，但我預計它會保持在這個水平，甚至可能在進入第四季度時略有回升，這將抵消醋酸價格的進一步走軟。

So there have been all kinds of outages in 2021 from weather, and then we had outages in China or curtailments in China. Have all of these different events led you to have a different view of where acetic acid and VAM pricing might be at the end of next year? That is, have they structurally changed the way that you expect the industry to evolve? And then secondly, with all of the outages that you've had this year, how much more acetyl volume can you produce next year than you produce this year at a normal operating rate?

2021年由於天氣原因發生了各種停產，然後中國也出現了停產或減產。所有這些不同的事件是否導致您對明年年底醋酸和VAM的價格走勢有了不同的看法？也就是說，它們是否從結構上改變了您預期的產業發展方向？其次，考慮到今年發生的所有停產事件，以正常的開工率計算，明年乙醯乙酸的產量比今年多多少？

Yes. So have the outages affected my view of the industry? I think the answer is no. What continues to change is the supply-demand balance gets tighter and tighter. And we've been calling that out for a few years. I mean, every year, demand goes up 600 kt. And so that's like one plant every year, and nobody has been building plants.

是的。那麼，停產是否影響了我對這個行業的看法？我認為答案是否定的。持續變化的是，供需平衡變得越來越緊張。我們已經強調這一點好幾年了。我的意思是，每年需求都會增加60萬噸。這就相當於每年新建一座工廠，卻沒有人再建工廠。

So we are steadily now in that structural utilization kind of mid-80s to 90s, which means instantaneous utilization when you account for turnarounds and unplanned downtimes. And everything is in that high 90s, mid-90s to 100%. And that's going to continue. So it is that structural change in the industry which affects where I think we'll settle. I don't think we're going to settle acetic acid prices down in the 300 range where we used to see it settle. But I think it is going to be higher than that because structurally, it's just a much tighter industry.

因此，我們現在的結構性利用率穩定在85%到95%之間，這意味著考慮到週轉和計畫外停機時間，瞬時利用率會達到這個水準。所有產能利用率都在95%左右，從95%到100%之間。這種情況還會持續下去。所以，我認為產業的結構性改變會影響最終的定價。我認為醋酸價格不會像過去那樣穩定在300美元左右。但我認為價格會更高，因為從結構上講，這是一個更緊張的行業。

And I think what you see is the outages really reinforce that point because we very rapidly see the run-up in pricing anytime there's a slightest bubble. So I think it's not the outages that have changed my view. It's -- I think the outages have reinforced our view that structurally, this is a tightening market that is going to enjoy good margins for some period of time.

我認為，你所看到的停電事件確實強化了這一點，因為只要出現哪怕是最輕微的泡沫，價格就會迅速上漲。所以，我認為改變我觀點的不是停電事件。而是——我認為停電事件強化了我們的觀點：從結構上講，這是一個正在收緊的市場，在一段時間內將享有良好的利潤率。

And we've talked about it in other quarters as -- there's not -- we had a little bit of capacity come on in China this year with [Wu Yi, Jiang Xi]. We have our capacity coming on in 2023, which, of course, we will run to meet the market demand and have a lot of flexibility to take it up and down depending on what's going on with the market. But there's nothing else currently being built. And so -- and yes, demand is going to continue grow. So it is going to settle higher, but I think it's really the overlying structure versus, say, the outages.

我們在其他季度也討論過這個問題，因為今年我們在中國（江西武義）有一些產能投入。我們的產能將在2023年投入使用，當然，我們會根據市場需求來運行，並且擁有很大的靈活性，可以根據市場情況來調整產能。但目前沒有其他在建項目。所以，需求會持續成長。所以價格會穩定在更高水平，但我認為這實際上取決於上層結構，而不是停駛。

So what does that mean in terms of availability? I mean, yes, we were down this year for the freeze event. And of course, we had some supplier issues for some time following the freeze event. Other than that, actually, our units run very reliably this year. I do think, as we move into future years, we will be back at a normal pattern of turnaround. So while I think there's some incremental capacity available to us next year, I wouldn't say it's probably really significant from a volume standpoint.

那麼，就可用性而言，這意味著什麼？是的，今年受凍事件影響，我們的產能確實有下降。當然，在凍事件之後的一段時間裡，我們遇到了一些供應商問題。除此之外，實際上，我們的設備今年運作非常可靠。我確實認為，隨著未來幾年的到來，我們的產能將恢復正常的恢復模式。因此，雖然我認為明年我們的產能會有一些增量，但從產量的角度來看，我認為增量可能不會很大。

Your next question is coming from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲‧菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

Yes. Maybe a little bit to follow on the last question and also tying into several of your big customers on the coatings side have actually called out emulsions as being problematic from a pricing and sourcing standpoint. So when you look at how tight you see things over the next couple of years, when you look at the size of those customers, should we expect some meaningful-sized new announcements over the next year either on VAM, where you would maybe ship in acetic acid? Or would there be anybody that would look at doing kind of an integrated acetic acid in the VAM project in the U.S.?

是的。也許可以稍微延續最後一個問題，同時，你們塗料業務的幾位大客戶實際上已經指出，乳液在定價和採購方面存在問題。所以，考慮到未來幾年的市場緊張程度，以及這些客戶的規模，我們是否應該期待明年在VAM（你們可能會在那裡運送醋酸）方面發布一些規模有意義的新公告？或者，是否有人會考慮在美國的VAM專案中整合醋酸業務？

Yes. It's an interesting question, Duffy. I mean let me kind of take the last part. I really wouldn't expect anybody to do an acetic acid to VAM to VAE kind of newbuild. I just don't think economically -- I mean that's probably -- just the acetic acid part of that is probably at least a $2 billion investment. And then you add on the VAM and VAE, it might even double that depending on the size of the facility.

是的。達菲，這個問題很有趣。我想先說說最後一點。我真不指望有人會新建那種醋酸-VAM-VAE（醋酸乙烯酯-乙烯醇共聚物）裝置。我覺得從經濟角度來看──我的意思是，這很可能──光是醋酸部分就至少要投資20億美元。再加上VAM和VAE，根據設施規模，投資額可能還要翻倍。

So I think that's a pretty big lift for just about anybody, not to mention the space, the infrastructure, the permitting, everything. This is a 5- to 7-year prospect if someone were to start now. So that's a ways out there. So I'm not worried about that. Like I said, we have 1.3 million tons coming on in 2023, which is basically the equivalent of 2 world-scale plants for acetic acid. And you'll recall, we've announced a series of VAM and VAE expansions globally around the world, trying to meet what we do see as continuing strong demand.

所以我認為這對任何人來說都是一個相當大的提升，更不用說空間、基礎設施、許可證等等所有方面了。如果現在就開始，這是一個5到7年的預期。所以這還有很長的路要走。所以我並不擔心這一點。就像我說的，到2023年，我們將有130萬噸的產能，基本上相當於兩座世界級的醋酸工廠。你們應該還記得，我們​​已經宣布了一系列全球範圍內的VAM和VAE擴建項目，試圖滿足我們持續強勁的需求。

I mean part of the problem right now, of course, is with the freeze, with other outages, things have gotten behind. At one point, as people restock, the world will normalize again. As we see acetic acid prices come down, that will lead eventually to lower VAM prices and lower VAE prices. Energy is a big factor.

我的意思是，目前的問題部分在於，當然，由於凍產和其他停產，情況已經落後了。總有一天，隨著人們補充庫存，世界會恢復正常。隨著醋酸價格下降，最終會導致VAM和VAE價格下降。能源是重要因素。

So I mean I think it's going to normalize even short of a lot of new capacity being added. But we do see the need for more capacity to come online, which is a need we think we're best positioned to be given our great technology, our lower -- our energy-efficient technology and our integration not just within our plants, but also our networks globally that allow us to really optimize and provide secure supply to our customers around the globe.

所以，即使沒有大量新增產能，我認為這種情況也會恢復正常。但我們確實看到了增加更多產能的需求，而我們認為，憑藉我們先進的技術、低能耗技術以及我們不僅在我們工廠內部，而且在我們全球網絡內的整合，我們最有能力滿足這一需求，這使我們能夠真正優化並為全球客戶提供安全的供應。

Great. And then maybe just a second one, on the $15 for next year. Can you walk us through, are there any meaningful changes that would be in that number, cash flow that would get spent on a buyback, maybe a change in the tax rate? I'm just trying to understand kind of like what's the base assumptions for that $15 for next year other than where spreads go.

好的。接下來我想問第二個問題，關於明年的15美元。能否具體解釋一下，這個數字會有什麼重大變化嗎？例如用於回購的現金流，或是稅率的變動？我只是想了解一下，除了利差之外，明年15美元的基本假設是什麼？

Yes. Let me just kind of walk through it and comment some of the things we're assuming in that number. So what we said is next -- an adjusted EPS next year of at least $15. That is based on a belief our acetyls business will have an EBIT between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion. As I said a little earlier in the call, that assumes we see relatively strong pricing, we're expecting in the fourth quarter, continuing into the first half of the year. Where you are in that range indicates where it might -- the different places we think it might start to moderate, whether it's a little bit before the third quarter, whether it's into the third quarter.

是的。我簡單介紹一下，並評論我們在這個數字中所做的一些假設。我們接下來說的是──明年調整後的每股盈餘至少為15美元。這是基於我們對乙醯基業務息稅前利潤（EBIT）在12億美元至14億美元之間的預期。正如我在電話會議早些時候所說，這假設我們看到相對強勁的定價，我們預計第四季度的定價將持續到上半年。你在這個範圍內的位置表明了它可能在哪個階段開始放緩——我們認為它可能在第三季之前不久，還是在第三季開始放緩。

We do, though, expect to see moderation to normalized pricing sometime midyear. And as I said, similar volumes to what we did this year because we think with the turnaround -- normalized levels of turnarounds and everything, I just assume kind of similar volumes.

不過，我們確實預期價格會在年中某個時候回落至正常水平。正如我所說，交易量與今年類似，因為我們認為隨著轉機的到來——轉機率的正常化等等——我假設交易量大致相同。

For EM, we are expecting $700 million to $800 million of EBIT. That does include Santoprene. It does include the organic growth both from our project model and our growth model, but also the Bishop GUR expansion. But I would say it's also dampened a bit by our expectation that auto builds will not recover year. So we're expecting auto builds at the same level we're seeing auto builds in 2021. And that affects our normal materials into auto and -- but it also will affect Santoprene because it is 65% into auto.

對於新興市場，我們預計息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 為 7 億至 8 億美元。這確實包括了山都平 (Santoprene)。這確實包括了我們項目模型和成長模型的有機成長，以及 Bishop GUR 擴張帶來的成長。但我想說，由於我們預計汽車產量今年不會復甦，這在一定程度上抑制了這一成長。因此，我們預計汽車產量將與 2021 年持平。這會影響我們用於汽車的常規材料，但也會影響山都平，因為其 65% 的產量都用於汽車。

And then in tow, we expect it to be pretty consistent with this year because we expect it to continue to be challenged by acetic acid pricing, at least in the first half of the year, and also by energy pricing. I will say if you add all those up, you might come up with a number slightly over $15. So what you should be aware of is we do expect the other to go up as we expect less pension income next year with maybe a softening in the market, which will then raise our BU Other.

其次，我們預計其價格將與今年基本持平，因為我們預計它將繼續受到醋酸價格的挑戰，至少在上半年是如此，同時能源價格也將繼續上漲。我想說，如果把所有這些因素加起來，可能會得出一個略高於15美元的數字。所以，大家應該注意的是，我們確實預計其他費用會上漲，因為我們預計明年退休金收入會減少，市場可能會走軟，這將提高我們的「其他」業務單位的價格。

So if you look at that in terms of free cash flow, I mean, free cash flow, we're basically saying even with a lower expectation on EBIT earnings driven primarily by moderation in acetyls, we do expect about the same level of free cash flow. So lower earnings, but we do -- would then get that working capital normalization that shows up as free cash flow on our books if we see the moderation in acetyls.

所以，如果從自由現金流的角度來看，我的意思是，自由現金流，我們基本上是說，即使息稅前利潤預期較低，主要是由於乙醯基產量放緩，但我們預計自由現金流水平大致相同。因此，收益較低，但我們確實——如果我們看到乙醯基產量放緩，那麼營運資本就會正常化，這在我們的帳簿上體現為自由現金流。

And we do expect slightly higher CapEx. We're still taking CapEx around $600 million next year. But we won't have the EU payment. So kind of look at all that, that washes out to basically free cash flow in the same level we expect to see this year.

我們確實預計資本支出會略有增加。明年我們的資本支出仍約為6億美元。但我們不會收到歐盟的付款。所以，考慮到所有這些，這基本上會抵消我們今年預期的自由現金流水準。

Our next question is coming from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, as I take a look at your sort of prepared remarks and the guidance you gave for the Acetyl Chain, you're looking for sustainably sort of over $1 billion in '22 and '23 EBIT. You cited, rightly so, a bunch of different reasons why you feel that's doable. One of them was the sort of uplift in the cost curve. So I just wanted to sort of get your thoughts around what's going on over there. Obviously, I see what's happening with the raw material side of things and the like. And you cited sort of escalation in pricing for catalysts and the like as well.

Lori，我看了你準備好的演講稿以及你對乙醯基鏈的預期，你希望在2022年和2023年的息稅前利潤（EBIT）能夠持續超過10億美元。你列舉了很多你認為可行的理由，這很正確。其中之一就是成本曲線的上升。所以我想了解你對那邊情況的看法。顯然，我了解原料方面的情況。你也提到了催化劑等價格的上漲。

So just on a relative basis, I'm trying to get a better sense of how much -- how we should think about your cost advantage relative to competitors improving in this sort of new raw materials, large catalyst cost world.

因此，僅從相對角度來看，我試圖更了解我們應該如何看待貴公司相對於競爭對手的成本優勢，尤其是在這種新原材料、大型催化劑成本領域。

Yes. I think -- I'll just back up a little bit, Hassan. If you look at like a decade ago, our foundational earnings for acetyls were in that $300 million to $400 million. And then if you go as recently as even last year, we were saying we think our foundational earnings are around $800 million. And that was based on continued rationalization of our footprint, expansion activities we had done, work we had done to improve the productivity of our sites, whether it be energy efficiency or catalyst recovery systems and things that lowered our cost of production.

是的。我想——哈桑，我稍微回顧一下。十年前，我們乙醯基產品的基礎收益在3億到4億美元之間。而去年，我們甚至認為基礎收益約為8億美元。這得益於我們持續優化佈局、進行擴張活動，以及為提高生產基地生產力所做的努力，無論是能源效率還是催化劑回收系統，以及降低生產成本的措施。

And now we're saying we think that base level is greater than $1 billion. And so it's really the same thing. I mean it is productivity, it is energy efficiency, but it also is this market dynamic that I was talking about. I mean, if you go back a decade, we had really overbuilt in China. We -- but the industry had overbuilt in China. And we were at low utilization, I mean, mid-60s going to mid-70s. Now we're at a much higher level of utilization with no new capacity other than our own on the horizon and maybe a few other little things around the globe. And so we are just in a much tighter area of supply-demand, which we expect will continue for the next 5 to 7 years, unless someone else builds new capacity. But it will take them that long. And that's really why we're saying that foundational earning, being kind of the lowest we think we will achieve in any given time, is now at about that $1 billion level.

現在我們說，我們認為基準水準應該超過10億美元。所以這其實是一回事。我的意思是，這關乎生產力、能源效率，以及我之前提到的市場動態。我的意思是，如果回顧十年前，我們在中國確實過度建設。我們——但整個產業都在中國過度建設。我們的產能利用率很低，大概在60%到70%之間。現在，我們的產能利用率高得多，除了我們自己的產能，以及全球其他一些小規模的產能外，沒有其他新增產能。所以我們正處於一個供需更加緊張的時期，我們預計這種情況將在未來5到7年持續下去，除非其他人也能建立新的產能。但他們也需要這麼久。這就是為什麼我們說基礎盈利（我們認為在任何特定時期都能達到的最低水平）現在大約在10億美元的水平。

Now obviously, that could change if we had a global economic recession or something. I mean -- but I'm just saying in normal economic conditions, we think that's the floor. And I think that's -- I think it really demonstrates also the power of the model that we've developed over the last 10 years, where we are able to -- as we did in the third quarter, we had a 15% decline in the price of acetic acid in China, but we were able to recover that with the price in the Western Hemisphere because we still had tightness in the Western Hemisphere. And we had 8% less earnings from asset globally in the third quarter than we did in second quarter, but we were able to recover that in margins for VAM and VAE and other downstream derivatives because -- and having that flexibility to shift geographically and having that ability to flex in the chain is what gives us confidence that, unlike many of our competitors who don't have that flexibility, we will be able to deliver that $1 billion of foundational earnings going forward.

顯然，如果全球經濟衰退或其他原因，情況可能會改變。我的意思是——但我只是說，在正常的經濟條件下，我們認為這就是底線。我認為這也真正展現了我們過去10年所構建的模型的威力，我們能夠——就像我們在第三季度所做的那樣，中國醋酸價格下跌了15%，但我們能夠通過西半球的價格來彌補這一損失，因為西半球的供應仍然緊張。第三季我們全球資產的收益比第二季下降了8%，但我們能夠透過VAM、VAE和其他下游衍生品的利潤率來彌補這一損失，因為——擁有這種地域轉移的靈活性和在供應鏈中靈活調整的能力，讓我們充滿信心，與許多不具備這種靈活性的競爭對手不同，我們將能夠在未來實現10億美元的基礎收益。

That's very helpful, Lori. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, again, reverting back to your prepared remarks, your commentary about relatively tepid long-term sort of supply growth, I found super interesting, particularly as you sort of talked about China. Would love for you to dig a bit deeper into that. I mean you're talking about how -- the whole sort of capital cost advantage in China has dwindled, the whole permitting process is far more complex. I mean, to me, that sounds super bullish not just for the Acetyl Chain but for commodity chemicals in general.

這很有幫助，Lori。非常有幫助。接下來，回到您準備好的發言，您關於長期供應增長相對疲軟的評論，我發現非常有趣，尤其是您談到了中國。希望您能更深入地探討一下。我的意思是，您談到了——中國的整個資本成本優勢已經減弱，整個審批流程也變得更加複雜。對我來說，這聽起來非常利好，不僅對乙醯基鏈，而且對整個大宗化學品行業都是如此。

No. I think that's right. I mean, look, we're not that many years ago, we would have said there was a large advantage to building in China just from a speed of build and a cost of build. As China has developed, as they've developed a stronger working class, I would say that, that advantage doesn't exist anymore, not in the same way.

不，我想是對的。我的意思是，想想看，就在幾年前，我們還會說，光從建設速度和建設成本來看，在中國建設就具有巨大的優勢。但隨著中國的發展，隨著他們培養出更強大的工人階級，我想說，這種優勢已經不存在了，而且是以不同的方式。

Now look, we're still bullish on China. We still are bullish about our operations there, but that advantage of being in China just from -- just as a place to be because of lower cost materials, doesn't really exist anymore. Now there are other reasons to be in China like we are, which is making things in China for the China market, which continues to be a great market. But making things in China for export, not so attractive anymore.

現在看來，我們仍然看好中國市場。我們仍然看好我們在中國的業務，但僅僅因為材料成本較低而在中國發展的優勢已經不存在了。現在，像我們一樣在中國發展還有其他原因，那就是在中國為中國市場生產產品，而中國市場仍然是一個巨大的市場。但在中國生產產品用於出口，已經不再那麼有吸引力了。

And I think that's true for other commodities as well and for other regions of the world as well. And I think also with the supply chain issues that we've all experienced this year, I think our strategy of making locally for local demand has proven to be a good one and probably one we'll see others start to follow as well.

我認為其他商品和世界其他地區也同樣如此。考慮到我們今年都經歷了供應鏈問題，我認為我們本地生產、滿足本地需求的策​​略已被證明是正確的，而且我們很可能會看到其他人也開始效仿。

Next question is coming from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Nice quarter again. In terms of your commentary on the cost curve for the Acetyl Chain, where are we now in terms of the advantages? Is the rest of the world 3, 4x more expensive or higher? Just curious how that has changed relative to the footprint you have in the States.

又是一個精彩的季度。關於您對乙醯基鏈成本曲線的評論，我們現在的優勢在哪裡？世界其他地區的價格是貴3倍、4倍還是更高？我只是好奇，相對於你們在美國的佈局，這方面有什麼改變。

Yes. Look, still -- although we've seen increases in natural gas in the United States, the acetyls produced in the United States, especially for us at Clear Lake, with our technology, with the economy of scale, is still very much on the lower end of the cost curve, and I would say, quite significantly.

是的。你看，儘管我們看到美國天然氣產量有所增長，但美國生產的乙醯基，尤其是我們Clear Lake公司生產的乙醯基，憑藉我們的技術，加上規模經濟，仍然處於成本曲線的低端，而且我想說，成本增長相當顯著。

China coal had gotten more expensive even than Singapore for a while, because Singapore was oil-based. But coal has gone up, oil has gone up. So I would say what we've seen is while the entirety of the cost curve has gone up, it hasn't really changed the dynamic about the very large advantage that we have in the Gulf Coast of the U.S. versus the rest of the world.

中國的煤炭價格一度甚至比新加坡還貴，因為新加坡以石油為主。但煤炭價格上漲了，石油價格也上漲了。所以我認為，我們看到的是，雖然整個成本曲線都在上漲，但這並沒有真正改變我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸相對於世界其他地區的巨大優勢。

Got it. And then for your outlook for '22 in EM, I think you commented organic growth of mid- to high single digits in '22 and maybe in '23. That assumes auto doesn't grow in '22. And then in '23, do you think auto grows and that growth rate is higher?

明白了。然後，關於您對2022年新興市場的展望，我記得您曾提到2022年和2023年有機成長率將達到中高個位數。這是假設2022年汽車產業不會成長。那麼，您認為2023年汽車產業會成長，而且成長率會更高嗎？

Yes. I think on a simplistic level, yes. I mean I think -- look, we have growth in 2022, just not in auto. We have growth in medical. We have growth in electrical. But I mean we also do expect to have some lingering impacts of the shortages of resin, glass and flame retardants as we go into 2022. So I would expect a higher level of growth in 2023 based on the regrowth in auto, and hopefully, the full resolution of all those supply chain issues.

是的。簡單來說，我認為是的。我的意思是，我認為——你看，我們在2022年會成長，但不僅僅是汽車產業。我們在醫療行業和電氣行業都有成長。但我的意思是，我們預計在進入2022年時，樹脂、玻璃和阻燃劑短缺的影響還會持續存在。因此，基於汽車產業的復甦，以及所有供應鏈問題的全面解決，我預計2023年的成長水準會更高。

Next question today is coming from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

今天的下一個問題來自貝爾德的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, Lori, relative to your outlook for the AC segment from 3 months ago, is it purely the curtailments in China and the impact on pricing that is driving the upgraded view on 4Q EBIT? Or is there anything else as it relates to demand or mix or even higher feedstock cost? And then related to that, just your thoughts on how you see curtailments playing out for 4Q specifically and the risk on the first quarter as well.

Lori，我想，相對於您三個月前對空調行業的展望，僅僅是因為中國的減產及其對定價的影響，才導致您對第四季度息稅前利潤的預期上調嗎？還是有其他因素，例如需求、產品組合，甚至更高的原料成本？與此相關的是，您如何看待第四季的減產情況，以及第一季的風險？

Yes. Look, we have baked in already for fourth quarter, so let me start there. I mean, look, we're seeing moderate -- very modest curtailments in fourth Q. I mean the differences in third Q, it had all happened in about 15 days. And in the fourth quarter, the provinces know the number. They've been able to optimize more. And so we're seeing only really modest curtailments in fourth quarter. And it's a period typically where you have seasonality, and we weren't expecting much this year. But I would say that's fully both baked into our fourth quarter.

是的。我們已經將第四季度的減產情況考慮進去了，所以我先從這裡開始。我的意思是，我們看到第四季的減產情況非常溫和——非常小。我的意思是，第三季的差異，大約在15天內就發生了。在第四季度，各省都了解具體數字。他們能夠進行更多優化。所以我們在第四季只看到了非常溫和的減產情況。這通常是一個季節性的時期，我們原本預計今年不會有太大的減產。但我想說，這完全反映在了第四季的減產情況中。

But clearly, those curtailments and the impact they're having on others as well as the curtailments we had in the third quarter has changed our view of how long this pricing situation is going to last. People are not going to be able to rebuild inventories now in the fourth quarter. And so I think it just pushes that higher range of pricing further into 2022. As we do fully expect, people -- once prices start to moderate, even at what are still fairly high prices, they will want to rebuild inventory, especially because we're already be going into the next construction season at the end of 1Q.

但顯然，這些減產及其對其他企業的影響，以及我們在第三季的減產，已經改變了我們對這種價格狀況將持續多久的看法。人們現在無法在第四季重建庫存。因此，我認為這只會將更高的價格區間進一步推至2022年。正如我們完全預料的那樣，一旦價格開始回落，即使價格仍然相當高，人們也會想要重建庫存，尤其是因為第一季末我們即將進入下一個建築季。

So I think that really accounts for the change in our outlook for 2022, is just this continued level of higher pricing, higher margins for acetyls extending longer into the year now than what we thought a quarter ago.

因此，我認為這確實解釋了我們對 2022 年前景的變化，乙醯基的這種持續上漲的價格和更高的利潤率將持續到今年年底，比我們一個季度前預想的還要長。

Got it. And the thesis points you -- sorry? I was going to say the thesis points you laid out in your prepared comments, specifically China and the capacity additions and the unlikely nature of that just based on the world hasn't changed over the past decade, along with the economics. Does that also impact on the same basis your own supply chain and your own access to material, et cetera? How are you sort of thinking about that risk aspect?

明白了。你的論點是──抱歉？我本來想說你在準備好的評論中提出的論點，特別是中國及其產能增加，以及基於過去十年全球經濟狀況未變這一事實的不太可能性。這是否也會以同樣的方式影響你自己的供應鏈、你自己的材料取得等等？你是如何看待這個風險面的？

Yes. Like I said, we've had -- I mean we've had some issues around materials for additives. That applies to powders and things as well, things you never even hear about or think about. But I would say in a major way, we make 35% to 40% of our own CO. We start very far up in the value chain, and we go very far to the end.

是的。就像我說的，我們確實遇到過一些關於添加劑材料的問題。粉末之類的也存在類似的問題，有些東西你甚至從未聽說過或想過。但我想說，我們自己製造的二氧化碳排放量佔了很大一部分，比35%到40%。我們從價值鏈的上游開始，一直延伸到末端。

So again, I think what we see now in raw material -- I mean while it certainly has impacted us, I think we've also had more ability to deal with it because we have more choices in the chain, where we can make decisions that ultimately help maintain or even, in some cases, improve our margins relative to others.

所以，我認為我們現在在原材料方面看到的——我的意思是，雖然它確實對我們產生了影響，但我認為我們也有更多的能力來應對它，因為我們在鏈條中有更多的選擇，我們可以做出最終有助於維持甚至在某些情況下提高我們相對於其他公司的利潤率的決策。

Our next question today is coming from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

我們今天的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Lori, a couple of things on your Acetyls Chains commentary that sort of piqued my interest. First, you talk about catalyst cost going up due to precious metals pricing. How big is the catalyst cost? And is it just the raw material inflation issue with precious metals? Or is there an availability issue of catalyst?

Lori，你關於乙醯基鏈的評論中有幾點引起了我的興趣。首先，你提到貴金屬價格上漲導致催化劑成本上升。催化劑成本有多高？這僅僅是貴金屬原物料價格上漲的問題嗎？還是催化劑的供應問題？

And the second question there, you talk about the capital advantage to build capacity in China versus U.S. is now negligible, which is very interesting, because steel costs are the same everywhere and they always had cheap labor, and China was exporting deflation all these years. Do you think that's behind us or is it permanent?

第二個問題，您提到中國相對於美國建設產能的資本優勢現在幾乎可以忽略不計，這很有意思，因為世界各地的鋼鐵成本都一樣，而且中國一直擁有廉價勞動力，而這些年來中國一直在輸出通貨緊縮。您認為這種情況已經過去了嗎？還是會持續下去？

Yes. Let me talk about catalyst costs first. I mean we haven't really shared the numbers. But earlier in the year, let's go back to like first quarter, second quarter, we actually saw costs for some catalysts we use, raw -- precious metals, think rhodium, think platinum, think -- these sorts of things. We actually saw it increase by 10x versus what we had, had in previous years.

是的。我先來談談催化劑成本。我的意思是，我們還沒有真正分享過具體數字。但在今年早些時候，例如第一季和第二季度，我們實際上看到了一些催化劑的成本，例如原材料——貴金屬，例如銠、鉑等等。實際上，與前幾年相比，成本增加了10倍。

Now a lot of these same materials go into other applications, they go into catalytic converters. And back when auto was really picking up, we really saw a lot of competition for that limited supply of precious metals. Interestingly enough, with -- not surprisingly also, with the reduction in auto bill, not so many catalytic converters being built, we've actually seen some moderation back to maybe now only 5x what it is. So I would say precious metals are (inaudible) too. But we have seen some moderation.

現在，許多相同的材料被用於其他應用，例如催化轉換器。在汽車行業真正復甦的時候，我們確實看到了對有限貴金屬供應的激烈競爭。有趣的是，隨著汽車帳單的減少，觸媒轉換器的產量也隨之減少，這並不令人意外，我們實際上看到了一些放緩，現在可能只有之前的5倍。所以我想說貴金屬也（聽不清楚）。但我們已經看到了一些放緩。

And I think the volatility we're seeing in pricing there is just typical of the volatility we're seeing around the world, where a lot of pent-up demand, people really wanting to produce, but a lot of, I would say, almost worsening issues around supply chain logistics and other -- and everything else, which is keeping all of these markets quite volatile. But I would say, volatile at a much higher level than we enjoyed, say, just even 2 years ago.

我認為，我們所看到的定價波動只是我們在全球看到的波動的典型代表，大量被壓抑的需求，人們確實想要生產，但我想說，供應鏈物流和其他方面的問題幾乎正在惡化——以及其他所有方面，都導致所有這些市場都相當動盪。但我想說，目前的波動程度比我們兩年前經歷的要高得多。

Okay. And then on the steel side or the capital?

好的。那麼鋼鐵方面或資本方面呢？

Yes. On the steel side, you're right, steel kind of costs the same around the world. I mean, it used to be an advantage in China probably due to some government support. I think that's -- a lot of that is gone now. So I think cost of materials in China is really not that much less labor, not necessarily versus the U.S. but versus maybe other parts of Asia. The labor has more normalized -- I mean I think labor is still a bit more expensive in the U.S., but you also get a bit more productivity in the U.S.

是的。就鋼鐵而言，你說得對，全球各地的鋼鐵成本大致相同。我的意思是，過去鋼鐵在中國是一個優勢，可能是因為政府的一些支持。我認為現在很多支持已經消失了。所以我認為中國的材料成本其實並沒有比勞動成本低很多，不一定是與美國相比，而是與亞洲其他地區相比。勞動成本已經更加正常化——我的意思是，我認為美國的勞動成本仍然略高一些，但美國的生產力也更高一些。

So I'm just saying that this -- the difference in -- whereas it used to almost be a 2:1 advantage to build in China versus the U.S. or any other part of Asia, and you could do it and you could get through permitting and things more quickly, that benefit has vanished. Is there still a 10% advantage? Maybe. But it's not as large as it used to be. And that's really what I was referring to in my previous comments.

所以我想說的是，差別在於——以前在中國建設項目比在美國或亞洲其他地區建設項目幾乎有2倍的優勢，而且你可以更快地完成審批等等，但現在這種優勢已經消失了。現在還有10%的優勢嗎？也許有。但不像以前那麼大了。這正是我在之前的評論中提到的。

But again, it still makes sense to build in China if you're building for materials that are going to be consumed in China because you get around any tariff issues or any trade war issues, transportation, logistics issues. So it can still make sense to build in China. I'm just saying you're not -- we would not see the advantage of building in China for something we're going to export to some other part of the region or some other part of the world.

但話說回來，如果你建造的材料是要在中國消費的，那麼在中國建造仍然是合理的，因為這樣可以避開關稅問題、貿易戰問題、運輸問題和物流問題。所以在中國建造仍然是合理的。我只是說，我們不會認為在中國建造那些要出口到該地區或世界其他地方的產品有什麼優勢。

Right, right. With the demographics in China, do you expect sort of these labor costs rising that will continue in the future?

對，對。考慮到中國的人口結構，您預期未來勞動成本還會繼續上漲嗎？

Look, I think as the war for talent continues in all parts of the world now, I expect we are in for a period of inflating labor costs really in every region of the world.

瞧，我認為隨著人才爭奪戰在世界各地持續進行，我預計我們將進入一個世界各地勞動成本不斷上漲的時期。

Your next question today is coming from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Lori, you mentioned you thought maybe auto's a bit flat. Is that an industry comment? Or because your EV mix is getting richer, you can still grow? And what's the latest on the medical stuff? I know during the peak of COVID, you had some diminished demand because of deferral of elective procedures. How is that end market trending at the moment?

Lori，你提到你認為汽車業務可能略顯平淡。這是業界評論嗎？還是因為你們的電動車產品組合越來越豐富，所以你們仍然有成長空間？醫療領域的最新狀況如何？我知道在新冠疫情高峰期，由於選擇性手術的延遲，你們的需求有所下降。目前這個終端市場趨勢如何？

Yes. Look, I would say we expect auto builds to be flat year-on-year, if you look at the industry and globally. Now I think that changes region to region. I think Asia is doing a bit better. I think Europe is doing a bit worse. I think the U.S. has been between there. I think that's pretty consistent, though, with an industry view on auto builds. I think while we all hope the chip shortage was going to improve, I think now every most things you read by knowledgeable people will say, it's probably the end of next year before that starts to improve.

是的。你看，如果從產業和全球來看，我們預期汽車產量將比去年同期持平。現在我認為不同地區的情況有所不同。我認為亞洲的表現略好一些，歐洲略差一些，而美國則介於兩者之間。不過，我認為這與業界對汽車產量的看法相當一致。雖然我們都希望晶片短缺問題能夠改善，但我認為現在大多數知情人士的說法都會說，這種情況可能要到明年年底才會開始好轉。

So our expectation is auto builds will continue to be flat year-on-year. Our own -- what that means for Celanese, though, maybe I should call that out because I think it's important, is actually we expect our auto volumes to be up 15% next year versus where they were this year, just really as driven by the mix that we have, again, the higher exposure that we have in EVs than we used to have; EVs have a higher kilogram per vehicle; the presence we have in lithium-ion battery separator films, enhanced by the expansion in Bishop that will finish here at the end of the year. So again, industry-wide, we expect flat auto builds. We expect though our volume into auto to continue to grow by 15% next year.

因此，我們預計汽車產量將繼續同比持平。但我們自己——也許我應該指出這一點，因為我認為這很重要——實際上，我們預計明年汽車產量將比今年增長15%，這主要得益於我們的產品組合，再次強調，我們在電動汽車領域的投入比以往更高；電動汽車每輛車的重量更高；以及我們在鋰離子電池隔膜領域的業務，而畢曉普工廠的擴建率將進一步增強我們年底完成，這將進一步增強我們的業務。因此，就整個產業而言，我們預計汽車產量將持平。但我們預計明年汽車產量將持續成長15%。

And I think your last question, Bob, but I had a little problem hearing it, I think it was really around elective procedures and medical -- for medical and what we're seeing there. Yes, so what I would say is on medical, elective procedures have been flat this year. We kept calling out we expected them to increase. We also didn't expect the delta variant. And so what we've really seen is they're still flat. We're seeing a little bit of pickup in some regions, but I would say nothing of significance in terms of our orthopedic side of the medical business.

鮑勃，我想這是你的最後一個問題，但我聽得有點不舒服，我認為你問的主要是擇期手術和醫療——就醫療以及我們目前看到的情況而言。是的，我想說的是，就醫療而言，擇期手術今年持平。我們一直強調，我們預計它們會增加。我們也沒有預料到會出現德爾塔變異。所以我們實際看到的是，它們仍然持平。我們在某些​​地區看到了一些回升，但就我們醫療業務的骨科方面而言，我認為沒有什麼顯著的回升。

What I will say, though, is we have seen a notable pickup in our business for other medical and pharma. And it's really on the back of our focus we put on this and our strategy in 2019 trying to expand our presence in other parts of medical and pharma. And we did see an increase in that in the third quarter, which is really what helps kind of keep our mix pretty steady versus second quarter.

不過，我想說的是，我們在其他醫療和製藥領域的業務顯著回升。這得益於我們對此的重視，以及我們2019年的策略，即努力擴大我們在醫療和製藥其他領域的影響力。第三季度，我們確實看到了這方面的成長，這實際上有助於我們的產品組合與第二季度相比保持相當穩定。

And just as an example of the kind of projects that we're bringing in now in medical outside of orthopedic, we've actually just closed the deal to provide POM into a dry powder inhaler for a company in India. So this is for an inhaler, uses dry powder, uses our POM. This is a high-value application with pretty good -- not just good margins but good volumes going forward. So -- and that's really where we're starting to see more growth, higher-margin business, things like inhalers, things like wearables, diabetes devices. Obviously, still continuing to grow our vital dose, long-dose delivery platform. I mean we are seeing really good growth in these segments and expect that to continue into next year and beyond.

舉個例子，我們現在正在骨科以外的醫療領域進行一些計畫。我們剛完成了一筆交易，為一家印度公司提供POM（處方藥），用於乾粉吸入器。這款吸入器使用乾粉，也使用了我們的POM。這是一個高價值的應用，不僅利潤豐厚，未來的銷售也相當可觀。所以，這正是我們開始看到更多成長、利潤率更高的業務的領域，例如吸入器、穿戴式裝置、糖尿病設備等等。當然，我們仍在繼續發展我們的重要劑量和長劑量傳遞平台。我的意思是，我們在這些領域看到了非常好的成長，預計這種成長態勢將持續到明年及以後。

Your next question today is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, going back to your cost curve comments in China, how much of this change do you think is permanent? Is any of the 20-odd plants there you think are at risk from perhaps permanent shutdown?

Lori，回到你對中國成本曲線的評論，你認為這種變化有多少是永久性的？你認為那裡20多家工廠中，是否有任何一家面臨永久關閉的風險？

Well, I mean this is my personal belief. I mean, I think the advantage to build in China has disappeared. And I think that's probably permanent. I think it's like we see generally. As developing economies get more developed and get -- and strive to get a bigger middle class, strive to increase wages, strive to improve the quality of life for people in that company, they do lose their cost advantage over time.

嗯，這是我個人的看法。我的意思是，我認為在中國建設的優勢已經消失了。而且我認為這可能是永久性的。我認為這就像我們普遍看到的那樣。隨著發展中經濟體變得更加發達，並努力擴大中產階級，努力提高工資，並努力改善員工的生活質量，它們的成本優勢確實會隨著時間的推移而喪失。

Now they've gained in productivity. So I don't think it's that, it's going to switch. I don't think it's going to be cheaper to build in other parts of the world. But I don't think China is ever going to go back to being the super low-cost producer that it once was. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, right? We see China also moving to create more high-value materials, more things in China to meet the growing demand of the population in China. So I just don't think they'll always be the huge low-cost exporter that they once were. But we've seen many economies go through that, right? And so who knows what the next economy will be. But they're still the second largest economy in the world, so there's no doubt China will remain a very important part of the world's balance, and certainly the chemical and polymer world balance in terms of where things come from.

現在他們的生產力提高了。所以我認為情況不會如此，而是會轉變。我認為在世界其他地方建造並不會更便宜。但我認為中國永遠不會再回到過去那種超低成本的生產國地位。這不一定是壞事，對吧？我們看到中國也努力生產更多高價值材料，更多產品，以滿足中國人口日益增長的需求。所以我認為他們不會永遠像以前那樣成為巨大的低成本出口國。但我們已經看到許多經濟體經歷過這種情況，對吧？誰知道下一個經濟體會是什麼呢？但他們仍然是世界第二大經濟體，因此毫無疑問，中國將繼續在世界平衡中扮演非常重要的角色，就原材料來源而言，無疑也將在化學和聚合物的世界平衡中扮演重要角色。

Yes, David. And I think if you really look at technology difference that we've talked about for a long period of time on just the straight variable cost, the advantage that we have is still there. And with some of the challenges we see in coal and just fundamental usage of coal and that being more and more restricted over time in China, those plants operate at a slightly lower level.

是的，大衛。我認為，如果你認真審視我們長期以來討論的技術差異，僅從直接變動成本來看，我們的優勢仍然存在。由於我們在煤炭以及煤炭基本用途方面面臨的一些挑戰，以及中國煤炭使用量隨著時間的推移越來越受到限制，這些電廠的營運水準略有下降。

Lori talked about catalysts. Catalysts usage of these disadvantaged technologies is higher than what ours is. So we're seeing the cost increase. They're seeing the cost increase at a greater rate. And so that should hopefully -- and that's kind of why we've signaled strength as we work our way into 2022 is we do think that there is some changes here that we do believe are sustainable when -- then you layer on the fact that supply/demand utilizations are getting into the 90% range.

Lori 談到了催化劑。這些劣勢技術的催化劑使用量比我們的更高。所以我們看到成本在上升。他們的成本上升速度更快。所以，我們希望——這也是為什麼我們在展望 2022 年時發出了強勁信號——我們確實認為，這裡有一些變化是可持續的——再加上供需利用率達到 90% 左右這一事實。

(technical difficulty) on the back half of the year due to the cost you mentioned there should be similar pressures next year. Do we return back to maybe in 2023 prior levels of earnings once these costs normalize?

（技術難題）由於您提到的成本問題，下半年應該會面臨類似的壓力。一旦這些成本恢復正常，我們的獲利水準是否會在2023年恢復到之前的水準？

David, we lost about half your question. Do you mind re-asking that for us?

大衛，你的問題我們大概有一半沒回答。你介意再問一次嗎？

Yes. Sorry, on acetyl, you've had a step down in earnings here in the back half of the year due to inflation. I guess you've highlighted additional -- these pressures continuing into next year. Would you expect a return to normalized levels of tow earnings perhaps in 2023?

是的。抱歉，關於乙醯基產品，由於通貨膨脹，你們下半年的獲利有所下降。我想你已經強調了額外的壓力——這些壓力將持續到明年。你預計拖車獲利會在2023年恢復正常水準嗎？

Yes. Look, I think that's a very reasonable assumption. I mean the real issues, other than the issue we have with losing Belarus volumes this quarter, but we'll place those volumes into other applications next quarter.

是的。我覺得這個假設非常合理。我的意思是，除了本季白俄羅斯數據遺失的問題之外，真正的問題是，下個季度我們會把這些數據轉移到其他應用中。

The things really driving the lower level of tow margins is acetic acid pricing, is natural gas pricing. So as we get to 2023, just as we expect normalization for acetic acid, we would expect normalization in pricing, and we would expect to see margins per tow come up to the level we've seen as well, of course, that will give us 2 years to pass through pricing actions on multiyear contracts.

真正導致拖車利潤率下降的因素是醋酸價格和天然氣價格。因此，到2023年，正如我們預期醋酸價格將恢復正常一樣，我們也預期價格也將恢復正常，並且我們預計每拖車的利潤率也將回升到目前的水平。當然，這將給我們兩年的時間來執行多年合約的定價操作。

Your next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, I had a few related questions on natural gas. I think you made the point in your prepared remarks that due to low levels of inventory, the costs are flowing through maybe a little bit faster than would otherwise be the case. And so with regard to your 4Q earnings guidance, do you think that natural gas or energy inflation will be net positive, negative or neutral? And then the second part would be related to recovery of those costs. I think you mentioned that you're implementing surcharges. So perhaps you could comment on where you're doing that, if it's Europe or other places, and which products.

Lori，我有幾個關於天然氣的問題。我記得你在準備好的發言中提到過，由於庫存水準低，成本的流轉速度可能比正常情況下要快一些。那麼，關於你的第四季獲利預期，你認為天然氣或能源價格上漲會是淨正值、負值還是中性？第二部分是關於這些成本的回收。我記得你提到你們正在實施附加費。所以，或許你可以談談你們在哪裡實施附加費，是在歐洲還是其他地方，以及針對哪些產品。

Yes. So if we look at natural gas, I mean, obviously, natural gas is an issue in the U.S., where we purchased about 55 million BTUs annually. But it's also a real issue in Europe, where we don't necessarily purchase much natural gas directly, but we certainly see it as a factor in many of our raw material costs as well as a factor in our steam and other things that we purchase from others. And so it has been a significant factor this year, a third quarter -- a step-up from second quarter. In fourth quarter, we do expect to see another, call it, 25% increase in the U.S. at a nearly doubling of natural gas prices in the EU. So this will be a significant factor for us in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以，如果我們看看天然氣，我的意思是，顯然，天然氣在美國是一個問題，我們每年在美國購買大約5500萬英熱單位（BTU）。但這在歐洲也是一個真正的問題，我們不一定直接購買大量天然氣，但我們確實認為它是我們許多原材料成本的一個因素，也是我們從其他公司購買的蒸汽和其他產品的一個因素。所以，它是今年第三季的一個重要因素——比第二季有所提升。在第四季度，我們預計美國天然氣價格將再次上漲，也就是25%，而歐盟天然氣價格將幾乎翻倍。所以，這將成為我們第四季的一個重要因素。

Now with the surcharges, with other things, we do expect we'll be able to recover some of that. I think the -- we will see, for example, in EM, another $20 million increase. With the surcharge, we're recovering some, but it means we're probably just going to be flat to third quarter to fourth quarter. Not every contract can we put a surcharge on. Not every molecule will have a surcharge. Some contracts are fixed for a short period of time. So we won't be able to recover everything, but we do think we'll be able to basically mitigate the impact of the increase from third quarter to fourth quarter.

現在，加上附加費和其他費用，我們確實預計能夠收回部分損失。我認為－－例如，我們會看到新興市場再增加2000萬美元。加上附加費，我們收回了一些，但這意味著從第三季度到第四季度，我們的收入可能持平。並非每份合約都能加收附加費。並非每種分子都會加收附加費。有些合約的期限很短。因此，我們無法收回所有費用，但我們認為，我們基本上能夠減輕第三季到第四季費用成長的影響。

If we stay in the winter months, next year, we'd expect first quarter to be kind of the same level of pricing we see in the fourth quarter. But again, we have been able to pass more of those costs on. So we should see a bit of help as we move into next year as it comes to the impact of natural gas pricing on our overall margins.

如果明年冬季持續，我們預計第一季的價格水準將與第四季大致相同。但同樣，我們已經能夠將更多成本轉嫁出去。因此，在天然氣價格對我們整體利潤率的影響方面，明年應該會有所改善。

I see. That's helpful. And then secondly, if I may, wanted to ask about the 8 kilotons of production lost in the EM segment. You commented on availability issues around glass fiber, flame retardants, resins. Just wondering if you could kind of talk through those. And are they getting any better or worse as far as you can tell in the fourth quarter and beyond? What's your outlook there in terms of ability to produce?

我明白了。這很有幫助。其次，如果可以的話，我想問EM部門8千噸的產量損失。您提到了玻璃纖維、阻燃劑和樹脂的供應問題。能否請您詳細談談這些問題？就您目前的情況來看，第四季及以後的情況是好轉了還是惡化了？您對EM部門的生產能力有何展望？

Yes. Look, unfortunately, I think it's going to be similar in the fourth quarter. We don't really see an improvement. I mean glass fiber demand has surged and the ability of the providers to respond to that, especially post freeze, is just -- it's just hard to get them back on and get the production up. So I don't really see probably an improvement in glass fiber in the fourth quarter. We do expect to start seeing some improvement next year.

是的。很遺憾，我認為第四季的情況會類似。我們確實看不到任何改善。我的意思是，玻璃纖維需求激增，而供應商的應對能力，尤其是在疫情凍結之後，很難讓他們恢復生產並提高產量。所以，我預期第四季玻璃纖維市場可能不會有好轉。我們預計明年會開始看到一些改善。

Similarly, flame retardants, I mean that one's a little even more complicated because pretty much all of the yellow phosphorus that's used to make flame retardants comes out of Hunan province in China, which was curtailed as part of the energy curtailments in Q3 and will probably be impacted in the fourth quarter. So that situation is not going to get better probably again this year. Hopefully, will get better next year. But there -- right now, it's just a single source of this raw material and it happens to be in China. So we need a bit more time to understand what the energy curtailments are going to mean going forward to really know when that issue is going to resolve itself.

同樣，阻燃劑的情況也更加複雜，因為幾乎所有用於製造阻燃劑的黃磷都來自中國湖南省，而該省在第三季度的能源削減中受到了限制，並且很可能在第四季度受到影響。所以今年這種情況可能不會再好轉。希望明年會有所好轉。但目前，這種原料只有一個來源，而且剛好在中國。因此，我們需要更多時間來了解能源削減對未來的影響，才能真正知道這個問題何時才能解決。

And resins, I would say, are mostly resolved at this point in time. I don't expect resin availability to be as much of an issue in the fourth quarter and certainly not as we move into next year.

我想說，樹脂的問題目前基本上已經解決了。我預計樹脂供應在第四季不會成為太大的問題，當然，進入明年也不會。

Your next question is coming from Matthew DeYoe from BofA.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

I don't expect you to comment on market rumors, but there was one earlier this summer about more or less the ceramics for medical and industrial products companies. And without talking about that one more specifically, I guess, can you help us frame out the scope at which you're looking through valuation M&A and kind of what would fit into the model and what wouldn't fit? Because it seems like the search is fairly wide, I guess, if that's -- if we can start there.

我不指望您對市場傳聞發表評論，但今年夏初確實有傳聞，大致是關於醫療和工業產品陶瓷公司的。我不想更詳細地談論這個傳聞，但您能否幫助我們概括一下您在估值併購中考慮的範圍，以及哪些適合這個模型，哪些不適合？因為看起來搜尋範圍相當廣泛，我想，如果我們可以從這裡開始的話。

Yes. Look, I think as it comes to M&A, whatever you're hearing, I would assume we're looking at everything, anything that is related to end markets that we currently serve, anything that's related to resins that we currently produce or might want to -- or our polymers that we might want to produce. I would just assume if there's a rumor, if something -- if you see something, we're probably looking at it.

是的。就併購而言，無論你聽到什麼，我認為我們正在考慮所有事情，任何與我們目前服務的終端市場相關的，任何與我們目前生產或可能想要生產的樹脂相關的，或者我們可能想要生產的聚合物相關的。我只是假設，如果有傳言，如果你看到了什麼，我們可能正在考慮。

Now that said, we look at everything with a lot of discipline, and we look at it through the lens that we laid out at Investor Day. So we look at -- we really focus on, can we achieve synergies with it? What do we think is our unique ability to get value creation from it? So is it something that we can provide our business model, our project pipelines, our growth models too, all of those criterias, where do we think it is in the value chain. We look at -- but we look at everything. We choose very few things to pursue. And so maybe I just stop at that.

話雖如此，我們用嚴謹的眼光審視一切，並且會從投資人日提出的視角來審視。我們會認真思考──我們真正關注的是，我們能否利用它來實現協同效應？我們認為我們有哪些獨特的能力可以從中創造價值？它能否為我們的商業模式、專案儲備、成長模式以及所有這些標準提供參考？我們認為它在價值鏈中處於什麼位置？我們會審視——但我們會審視所有方面。我們只選擇少數幾個面向來追求。所以我可能就到此為止了。

What I will say, though, is we think we have a lot of managerial and financial bandwidth in order to complete transactions of any size or multiple transactions of a smaller size. So at the time of the Investor Day, we said we outlined about a $6 billion of -- having $6 billion available on our balance sheet in order to do M&A. I will tell you, even with the expected close of Santoprene here in December, we still think we have about $6 billion available to us on our balance sheet because of our higher earnings that we've had this year and what that's meant in terms of cash generation and where our balance sheet is at.

不過，我想說的是，我們認為我們擁有充足的管理和財務資源，足以完成任何規模的交易，甚至多筆規模較小的交易。所以在投資者日活動上，我們曾表示，我們的資產負債表上大約有60億美元可用於併購。我可以告訴大家，即使預計Santoprene的交易將於12月完成，我們仍然認為我們的資產負債表上大約有60億美元可用資金，這得益於我們今年的盈利增長，這對現金流的產生以及我們資產負債表的現狀都至關重要。

So I mean, assume we look at everything, assume we continue to look at it through the criteria we laid out at Investor Day, and know that we have a very large pot of money ready to go when we find the right opportunity, and we have a management team that's ready to both negotiate and integrate.

所以我的意思是，假設我們審視一切，假設我們繼續透過投資者日制定的標準來審視一切，並且知道當我們找到合適的機會時，我們準備好了一大筆資金，並且我們有一個準備好進行談判和整合的管理團隊。

That's helpful. The other one to talk about a little bit on the EM side was the nat gas costs. I guess I was a little surprised that downstream ops would have that much exposure directly to nat gas. Is that just a reflection of like European energy costs moving up? Or is there some -- is nat gas more directly a feedstock to -- or is it just the acetic pass-through, I guess, I'm just wondering.

這很有幫助。關於新興市場，另一個值得討論的是天然氣成本。下游企業直接接觸天然氣的成本如此之高，這讓我有點驚訝。這是否僅僅反映了歐洲能源成本的上漲？或者說，天然氣更直接作為原料，還是只是乙酸的轉嫁環節？我只是好奇。

Well, I mean, if you think about it, in the U.S., just about everything is a derivative of natural gas. So even in the U.S., we've seen almost a doubling of nat gas costs from, say, last year to this year -- to the current price this year.

嗯，我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，在美國，幾乎所有東西都是天然氣的衍生物。所以即使在美國，我們也看到天然氣成本從去年到今年幾乎翻了一番——到今年的當前價格。

But if you think about CO, if you think about methanol, I mean, in the U.S., these are all natural gas derivatives. So there is a kind of direct correlation to raw material feedstock. Having natural gas, though, for acetyls from an energy standpoint, like -- this is very small because actually acetic acid, it's exothermic, it's heat integrated with others downstream. So not -- kind of the inverse of what you think. It is a big deal for raw materials. We tend to be able to pass that through, not such a big deal in terms of direct cost of energy in our U.S. operations.

但是，如果你考慮一下二氧化碳，或是甲醇，我的意思是，在美國，這些都是天然氣的衍生物。所以它們與原料原料之間存在某種直接的關聯。不過，從能源角度來看，對於乙醯基來說，天然氣的利用率非常低，因為乙酸實際上是放熱的，它會與下游其他物質的熱量相互作用。所以，情況並非如此──與你想像的完全相反。對於原料來說，這很重要。我們通常能夠將其轉嫁出去，就我們美國業務的直接能源成本而言，這不算什麼大問題。

In Europe, again, more EM exposure. Most EM tends to be lower energy intensity, so I think compounding really doesn't require much energy. But something like POM requires a lot of energy. So you think about POM, right? You have to heat it. You have to crystallize it. You have to dry it. That takes a lot of energy. So there, we really do see the direct impact of natural gas, which has almost doubled from third quarter to what we expect in the fourth quarter and is kind of 4x what it was in the third quarter -- or in the second quarter. There, you see a very direct relationship and one that's a little harder to pass through because it really has to do with steam costs and electricity costs and all those sort of things.

在歐洲，新興市場的風險敞口再次增加。大多數新興市場的能源強度較低，所以我認為複合過程實際上不需要太多能源。但像POM這樣的產品則需要大量能源。想想POM，對吧？你必須加熱它，必須結晶它，必須乾燥它。這些都需要大量的能源。因此，我們確實看到了天然氣的直接影響，天然氣的產量從第三季到第四季幾乎翻了一番，達到了我們預期的水平，是第三季——或者說第二季——的四倍。你可以看到兩者之間存在著非常直接的關係，而且這種關係很難被傳遞，因為它實際上與蒸汽成本、電力成本等等息息相關。

Your next question today is coming from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

今天的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Congrats on the nice results. Just curious with the step down that we're seeing in the acetate tow market, can you comment on where you feel that fits within the Celanese portfolio?

恭喜您取得如此好的成績。我很好奇，鑑於醋酸纖維絲束市場的下滑，您能否談談您認為它在塞拉尼斯產品組合中處於什麼位置？

Yes, Frank. I mean, as you know, we constantly look at everything in our portfolio and look at where we think the long-term trends are and how -- what does that mean for long-term margin results and the fit in our portfolio. What I would say on tow, and similar to my previous comments, is the step down we're seeing right now is, we think, uniquely tied to the price of acetic acid and energy prices around the globe. And clearly, the biggest piece of that being energy prices in Europe and for our Lanaken plant.

是的，弗蘭克。我的意思是，如你所知，我們會持續審視投資組合中的所有產品，並思考我們認為的長期趨勢，以及這對長期利潤率和投資組合的契合度意味著什麼。我想說的是，與我之前的評論類似，我們認為，我們目前看到的下降與全球醋酸價格和能源價格有著獨特的聯繫。顯然，其中最大的影響因素是歐洲和我們拉納肯工廠的能源價格。

So we do believe that we'll see a normalization of pricing, both raw materials and energy. And with that, we expect to continue to enjoy high margins in tow. But like all of our portfolio, we'll continue to watch that and make strategic decisions accordingly as we move through the next few years.

因此，我們確實相信原材料和能源價格將趨於正常化。同時，我們預計高利潤率也將隨之而來。但與我們投資組合中的所有產品一樣，我們將繼續關注這一趨勢，並在未來幾年做出相應的策略決策。

Yes. And Frank, I mean, I think it's important to remember, I mean, this is still between both the base business and the dividends that come out of the JV. This generates a lot of cash for us, and that cash can then be deployed for higher-growth applications. So we saw last year the importance of having this business. When we saw the downturn, very solid results, very solid cash flow generation. And yes, we're seeing some near-term compression. But as Lori said, we do expect some level of normalization.

是的。弗蘭克，我想說的是，我認為重要的是要記住，這仍然介於基礎業務和合資企業股息之間。這為我們帶來了大量現金，這些現金可以用於更高成長的應用。所以我們去年就看到了這項業務的重要性。在經濟低迷時期，我們取得了非常穩健的業績，創造了非常穩健的現金流。是的，我們確實看到了一些短期的壓縮。但正如洛里所說，我們確實預期會出現一定程度的正常化。

That's very helpful. And just a clarification. In terms of your energy costs year-over-year, just reading through the prepared remarks, so it's $20 million negative impact in Q3 and an additional $20 million negative in Q4. So we should assume like year-over-year, higher energy is going to cost you $40 million. Is that correct?

這很有幫助。我只是想澄清一下。關於你們的能源成本年比變化，我瀏覽了一下準備好的發言稿，發現第三季的負面影響是2000萬美元，第四季的負面影響也是2000萬美元。所以我們應該假設，與去年同期來看，能源成本的增加將導致你們的成本增加4000萬美元。對嗎？

Yes. Look, that's for EM. I would say we've also seen the impact of those higher energy impacts on raw material, and that's probably closer to $250 million year-on-year. But we've been able to offset all of that except -- and anticipate offsetting all of that except about $20 million in EM through pricing initiatives and other initiatives.

是的。你看，這是針對新興市場 (EM) 的。我想說，我們也看到了能源價格上漲對原物料的影響，年比可能接近 2.5 億美元。但我們已經能夠抵消所有影響，除了——並且預計透過定價舉措和其他舉措，除了新興市場約 2000 萬美元的影響外，其他影響都能抵消。

Our final question today is coming from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two quick ones then. The -- can you touch on, given the improved structural outlook for acetyls, why not pull forward CapEx to sort of fill in the pipeline -- the industry pipeline in 2026 to 2028? And on carbon pricing, to the extent that carbon prices move higher, are your EM customers giving you any sense of how that factors into pricing for your products? Are you seeing any kind of favorable mix shifts or negative from that? And similarly, within acetyls, is there a certain level of carbon prices where some of the Acetyl Chain becomes disadvantaged relative to substitutes?

那麼，我想快速問兩個問題。您能否談談，鑑於乙醯基產品結構性前景的改善，為何不提前資本支出來填補2026年至2028年的產業產品線？關於碳定價，如果碳價上漲，您的新興市場客戶是否了解這會如何影響您的產品定價？您是否看到了任何有利的組合變化或負面影響？同樣，在乙醯基產品中，是否存在碳價達到一定水平時，某些乙醯基鏈相對於替代品而言處於劣勢的情況？

Yes. Look, I think in response to your first question, not just for acetyls but for EM, we continue to look at our ability to pull forward all of our projects, because my margins are high in acetyls and we believe that, that structural demand is there. Similarly in EM, we can sell everything we can make right now. So -- and we expect that to continue as the desire for high-quality, unique products like we make continues to grow.

是的。我想回答你的第一個問題，不僅是乙醯基，對於EM，我們仍在關注推進所有專案的能力，因為乙醯基的利潤很高，而且我們相信有結構性需求。同樣，在EM方面，我們現在可以銷售所有產品。因此——隨著市場對我們生產的高品質、獨特產品的需求不斷增長，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

So we actually look at -- we constantly have been looking at how do we pull all of these up. The limitations are really the actual time it just takes to do a project between permitting, which unfortunately, has been slowed down in most parts of the world because of COVID, all the way to just the ability to get raw materials, and we talked a little bit about steel, about concrete, everything. There's so much demand right now for construction projects that we're finding it difficult to pull our projects up in a meaningful way. But we'll continue to look at that, and we'll continue to update you as we move through the year.

所以，我們一直在研究如何把所有這些事情都推進起來。真正的限制在於專案實際完成所需的時間，從審批（不幸的是，由於新冠疫情的影響，全球大部分地區的審批速度都放緩了）到原材料的獲取，我們之前談到了鋼材、混凝土等等。目前建築工程的需求量很大，以至於我們很難有效地推進專案。但我們會持續關注這個問題，並在年內持續向大家更新進度。

And then on your second question, what I would say is for most of the high-value products that we produce in EM, customers just want the product. I mean we've had 3 consecutive quarters of price increases in EM kind of the first time in our history. And what we find is that is not impacting the desire by customers to take products.

關於你的第二個問題，我想說的是，對於我們在新興市場生產的大多數高價值產品來說，客戶只是想要產品本身。我的意思是，我們在新興市場已經連續三個季度漲價，這在我們歷史上是第一次。但我們發現，這並沒有影響客戶購買產品的意願。

So I think in the inflationary environment we're all experiencing on everything, people understand. They may not like it, but they understand why we're having to push through these price increases to cover raw materials and energy and have -- again, have not seen any loss of volume due to pricing.

所以我認為，在我們目前所有領域都經歷的通膨環境下，人們都能理解。他們或許不喜歡，但他們理解我們為什麼不得不推行這些價格上漲來覆蓋原材料和能源，而且——再說一次，我們並沒有看到任何因價格上漲而導致的銷售損失。

I would say the same thing really in asset and downstream Acetyl Chain derivatives. The demand for construction projects -- products and packaging and all these things that acetyls go into is only increasing and even at the higher prices. I mean people maybe have been a bit slower to refill inventory at these prices, but there's no material anyway available to refill inventory. So again, we've not -- our customers would take more at these prices if we could produce more. We'll just leave it at that.

我對資產和下游乙醯基鏈衍生物的看法也大致相同。建築項目——產品、包裝以及所有需要乙醯基的產品——的需求都在持續增長，即使在價格上漲的情況下也是如此。我的意思是，在目前的價位下，人們補充庫存的速度可能慢了一些，但無論如何都沒有可用的材料來補充庫存。所以，我們再說一遍，如果我們能夠增加產量，我們的客戶在目前的價位下會需要更多。我們也就到此為止了。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。接下來，我想將發言權交還給管理階層，請大家提出進一步的意見或總結。

Thanks, Kevin. We'd like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call if you have any further questions. Kevin, please go ahead and close up the call.

謝謝，凱文。感謝大家今天的收聽。像往常一樣，如果您還有其他問題，歡迎在通話結束後與我們聯繫。凱文，請繼續，結束通話。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了，祝大家有個美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。