塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係副總裁 Brandon Ayache。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl. Welcome, everyone, to the Celanese Corporation's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Richardson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，達裡爾。歡迎大家參加塞拉尼斯公司2021年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Brandon Ayache，是投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk 和財務長 Scott Richardson。

Celanese Corporation distributed its second quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments about the quarter on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon.

塞拉尼斯公司昨天下午透過商業電訊發布了其第二季度收益報告，並在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了有關該季度的準備好的評論。

As a reminder, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of the press release as well as prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

提醒一下，我們今天將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。今天的演講還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，該語言可在新聞稿末尾以及準備好的評論中找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Because we published our prepared comments yesterday, we'll now go ahead and open the line for your questions. Darryl, go ahead and please open the line.

由於我們昨天已經發表了準備好的評論，因此我們現在將開放熱線來回答大家的問題。達裡爾，請繼續，請接通電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾 (Duffy Fischer)。

Congrats on a nice quarter and big rates. I guess 2 questions for me. First one, Lori, I think either on the Q4 call this year, the Q1 call, you talked about 1 meaningful slug of new acetic acid capacity hitting the market this year at a competitor. And that was going to be around midyear, as I recall. So one, I just want to see, have they been marketing that product? Is it producing? And what impact have you seen that have on the market? Or do you anticipate that having on the market?

恭喜本季業績良好且利率較高。我想有兩個問題。首先，洛里，我認為無論是在今年第四季電話會議上，還是在第一季電話會議上，您都談到了今年競爭對手將有大量新的醋酸產能進入市場。我記得那大概是年中的時候。所以，我只是想看看，他們一直在行銷該產品嗎？有生產嗎？您認為這對市場有何影響？還是您預計該產品將會上市？

Yes. Thanks, Duffy. Yes, so we do still expect that to hit. It's not started up yet. It hasn't hit the market yet. It's about 500,000 tons in China from Huayi. So we do expect it to hit -- I would say, it may contribute to moderation as we go forward in third quarter and into fourth quarter. But if you think about it, 500,000 tons, it's just really a little bit over a year's growth. So probably won't have a significant impact in the market we're in today.

是的。謝謝，達菲。是的，所以我們仍然期待它能夠實現。尚未啟動。它還沒有上市。華誼在中國的產量約為50萬噸。因此，我們確實預計它會達到——我想說，隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度，它可能會導致經濟放緩。但如果你仔細想想，50萬噸，其實只是比一年的成長多一點點而已。因此可能不會對我們今天所在的市場產生重大影響。

Yes. And Duffy, I think it's important to remember, this is not a new player for the Chinese market. They have 2 plants already in the market. So it's somebody who's in the market who's adding more capacity.

是的。達菲，我認為需要記住的是，這對中國市場來說並不是一個新玩家。他們已經在市場上有 2 家工廠。因此，市場上有人在增加產能。

Fair enough. And then just as a follow-up, I mean, if you look, obviously, your guidance for the year has gone up a lot from earlier this year. When you think about your decision-making, your ratios, net debt-to-EBITDA, dividend payout based on earnings, how do you think about that change from where you started to where you are today? What's the right level to think about as something you would kind of call structural to make capital decisions off of what's the right level of profitability to think about?

很公平。然後作為後續問題，我的意思是，如果你看一下，顯然，你對今年的指導比今年早些時候上升了很多。當您考慮您的決策、您的比率、淨債務與 EBITDA 比率、基於收益的股息支付時，您如何看待從最初到現在的變化？您應該考慮什麼樣的結構性水準作為資本決策的依據，並考慮什麼樣的獲利水準作為基礎？

Yes. I think as we go forward, if we start thinking about 2022, we're really thinking about a foundational level of earnings for acetyl kind of in the $900 million to $1 billion range, growing into that range over the next 2 years. We're really thinking about Engineered Materials closer to $700 million, and then if you add Santoprene on top of that, you get to the kind of that $750 million to $800 million range. And then you think about acetic acid right around $60 million a quarter.

是的。我認為，隨著我們向前發展，如果我們開始考慮 2022 年，我們真正考慮的是乙醯基收益的基礎水準在 9 億美元到 10 億美元之間，並在未來 2 年內增長到這個範圍。我們實際上認為工程材料業務的銷售額接近 7 億美元，如果再加上 Santoprene 業務，銷售額將達到 7.5 億至 8 億美元左右。然後你想想每季醋酸的售價大約是 6000 萬美元。

And so I think that would be kind of the right level. I would consider those pretty foundational levels of earnings at this point in time.

所以我認為這是合適的水平。我認為目前這些是相當基礎的收入水準。

Our next questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Lori, in your prepared comments, you made some comments on China acetic acid pricing and how it progressed throughout the second quarter and into the third quarter. Is that decline a function of purely a supply normalization? Or is demand in the region starting to moderate? I guess I'm just trying to get us to micro pulse in China in context of the narrative that's -- it's in the market about a slowing in the region.

洛里，在你準備好的評論中，你對中國醋酸價格以及其在第二季和第三季的走勢發表了一些評論。這種下降是否純粹是供應正常化的結果？或者該地區的需求開始放緩？我想我只是想讓我們在市場敘事的背景下對中國的微脈動進行觀察——這是該地區經濟放緩的跡象。

Yes. I think it's a little bit of both. So I think we are seeing some supply stability or -- of course, it varies day by day, but we -- our things in supply stability as we've come out of Uri and Western Hemisphere supplies have been more stabilized. Now we have been in a period of higher turnaround in the Western Hemisphere this last quarter. So we expect some of those plants to come back online. As some of you called out, there are some turnarounds happening in the third quarter in China, but I would say kind of within the normal level.

是的。我認為兩者都有一點。因此我認為我們看到了一些供應穩定性——當然，它每天都在變化，但是我們——我們的供應穩定性，因為我們已經走出了烏里和西半球的供應已經更加穩定。上個季度，西半球經濟進入復甦階段。因此我們預計其中一些工廠將恢復生產。正如你們中的一些人所指出的，中國第三季度出現了一些好轉，但我認為仍處於正常水平。

So I think I'd say supply has certainly stabilized at first quarter. But I would also say demand, while it continues to be robust, we are seeing some pockets of lower demand potentially going forward, with COVID and the Delta variant and especially in Southeast Asia. So I think it's a little bit of both.

所以我認為第一季的供應肯定已經穩定下來。但我還要說的是，儘管需求持續強勁，但我們看到未來一些地區的需求可能會下降，尤其是東南亞地區，受到新冠疫情和達美航空變種的影響。所以我認為兩者都有一點。

I think what's interesting to note is if you look at the moderation that we've called out in China pricing, it's really a very slow moderation compared to what we saw, say, in 2018. And we think that is because it is demand-driven as much as supply-driven, whereas 18 months, you've got the supply back, it dropped very quickly. And if you look at recent prices, I mean, prices have -- in China have been really stable over the last, call it, week. And we think that's more indicative of the slow moderation we expect to see through the remainder of the year.

我認為值得注意的是，如果你看看我們所呼籲的中國定價的緩和，與我們在 2018 年看到的相比，這確實是一個非常緩慢的緩和。我們認為這是因為它既受需求驅動，也受供應驅動，而 18 個月後，供應量又恢復了，下降得非常快。如果你看一下最近的價格，我的意思是，中國的價格在過去一周一直非常穩定。我們認為，這更能說明我們預計今年剩餘時間經濟將緩慢放緩。

Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of the inventory rebuild, I mean, what phase of the rebuild are we in that current? And then also your comments on 4Q earnings seasonality being minimal. Can you just expand on as well?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就庫存重建而言，我的意思是，我們目前處於重建的哪個階段？然後您還評論說第四季度盈利的季節性很小。能進一步詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. So inventory rebuild, I would say, we're in the pre-rebuild phase still. I mean everybody is talking about wanting to rebuild, but we are not seeing volumes being rebuilt in the acetyl supply chain or really in the EM supply chain as well. So I would say there is a desire to rebuild, but both businesses are still supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. And so I'd say we still have a long way to go on the rebuild. I would say, in fact, our anticipation is that it will last well into 2022.

是的。因此我想說，庫存重建我們仍處於重建前階段。我的意思是每個人都在談論想要重建，但我們並沒有看到乙醯供應鏈或 EM 供應鏈中的產量重建。所以我想說，有重建的願望，但這兩項業務仍然受到供應限制，而不是需求限制。所以我想說我們在重建方面還有很長的路要走。我想說，事實上，我們預計它將持續到 2022 年。

And then, sorry, your last question? There was -- yes, you had the second part of your question...

那麼，抱歉，您的最後一個問題是什麼？有－－是的，你的問題有第二部分…

The 4Q earnings seasonality, sorry.

第四季的獲利具有季節性，抱歉。

Yes, thank you. Yes. And that's exactly the reason we're saying we expect less seasonality in 4Q because we do expect, as prices continue to moderate slowly, we will see people starting to rebuild as supply is available. So if you think, for example, about the paints and coatings, right, that's a market where you typically see a good bit of seasonality in the fourth quarter. But we know our paints and coatings customers have no inventory. So we anticipate they will use the fourth quarter to rebuild their supplies in order to be ready for another spring painting season.

是的，謝謝。是的。這就是我們說預計第四季度季節性因素會減少的原因，因為我們確實預計，隨著價格繼續緩慢回落，我們將看到人們在供應充足的情況下開始重建。因此，如果您考慮油漆和塗料市場，那麼您通常會在第四季度看到相當多的季節性。但我們知道我們的油漆和塗料客戶沒有庫存。因此，我們預計他們將利用第四季度重建供應，為另一個春季繪畫季節做好準備。

So we really are expecting much less seasonality in acetyls. And then in EM, slightly, we usually see some drop-off in the Western Hemisphere in the fourth quarter and for all the reasons because we've been supply-constrained most of the year, we expect automotive as well as other end uses to be stronger than typical in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們確實預計乙醯基的季節性會大大降低。然後在新興市場，我們通常會看到西半球在第四季度出現一些下降，由於一年中大部分時間供應都受到限制，我們預計汽車以及其他終端用途在第四季度的表現將比往常更強勁。

Our next questions come from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

Could you talk a little more about the fiberglass shortage ever since PPG sold its business to Nippon? We really don't hear much about fiberglass for plastic reinforcement.

您能否再談一下自從 PPG 將其業務出售給 Nippon 以來玻璃纖維短缺的情況？我們確實沒有聽說過太多有關玻璃纖維用於塑膠增強的消息。

Yes. We have seen a real shortage here in fiberglass. I'm not sure I can really articulate all the reasons between how it started. But what we do know is really all of the players right now in fiberglasses are short. And while we do see players stabilizing, we still expect it to be well into the fourth quarter or even into next year before we see a complete stabilization of the fiberglass market.

是的。我們發現這裡的玻璃纖維確實短缺。我不確定我是否能夠清楚地表達出這件事發生的所有原因。但我們確實知道的是，目前所有穿著玻璃纖維球的球員身高都很矮。儘管我們確實看到參與者趨於穩定，但我們仍然預計，玻璃纖維市場要到第四季甚至明年才能完全穩定下來。

Okay. And then I don't know if you can answer the second one, but when CeramTec and Celanese were both part of [Hoechst], do you have any old timers that know whether the 2 businesses work closely together? I know Celanese plastics today is a lot different than it was back then.

好的。然後我不知道您是否可以回答第二個問題，但是當 CeramTec 和 Celanese 都屬於 [Hoechst] 的一部分時，您是否有老前輩知道這兩家公司是否密切合作？我知道塞拉尼斯今天的塑膠與當時相比有很大不同。

I don't know the answer to that, but Scott may have more history than I do.

我不知道答案，但斯科特可能比我知道的更多。

Yes. John, it was really operated very separately. As you well know, [Hoechst] was a very large company and had a lot of different components to it, and it was operated very separately.

是的。約翰，它確實是單獨操作的。眾所周知，[Hoechst] 是一家非常大的公司，它由許多不同的部門組成，並且運作非常獨立。

John, I'll just say something more on that. As you know, we don't comment on any kind of specific opportunities, rumors or speculation. But I would just remind the group kind of not specific to CeramTec. We are always looking at a very broad range of opportunities. And over any given quarter, we explore and evaluate many, many opportunities, most of which never come to completion.

約翰，我只想就此再說幾句。如您所知，我們不對任何具體的機會、謠言或猜測發表評論。但我只是想提醒小組不要只專注於 CeramTec。我們始終在尋找廣泛的機會。在任何一個季度，我們都會探索​​和評估很多很多的機會，但大多數都無法完成。

So our focus remains on opportunities that fit well within our business models and really meet our disciplined return criteria and our requirements around synergies. So I'm not saying we would never do something like a CeramTec. The material doesn't need to be a thermoplastic, but it does need to fit the model, and it does need to meet our M&A criteria.

因此，我們的重點仍然是那些適合我們的商業模式並真正滿足我們嚴格的回報標準和協同效應要求的機會。所以我並不是說我們永遠不會做像 CeramTec 這樣的事情。該材料不需要是熱塑性的，但它確實需要適合模型，並且它確實需要滿足我們的 M&A 標準。

Our next questions come from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

I was wondering if we could talk on the -- in the EM business. The COVID impacts were sort of affecting the auto cycle and production rates and the health care markets. Can you give us a little update on what happened through the quarter and how you see the path for those particular end markets into the second half?

我想知道我們是否可以談談新興市場業務。COVID 的影響在某種程度上影響了汽車週期、生產力和醫療保健市場。您能否向我們介紹本季發生的情況以及您如何看待這些特定終端市場在下半年的發展方向？

Sure. So for EM, I would characterize the end markets as all of the markets has recovered to pre-COVID levels at this point in time with the exception of medical implants. And as you said, auto which is really more due to shortages of those chips, microchips and also some shortages of resins in Q2. In fact, we've seen growth above 2019 levels in industrial and channel and electronics and some of the other sectors.

當然。因此，對於新興市場，我認為終端市場的特點是，除醫療植入物外，所有市場目前都已恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。正如您所說，汽車行業第二季度出現晶片、微晶片短缺以及樹脂短缺的情況較多。事實上，我們已經看到工業、通路、電子和其他一些產業的成長高於 2019 年的水準。

So if we look at implants, which is kind of your question, implants have improved across second quarter. We expect them to continue to recover through the end of the year and really be back at normalized rates in 2022. I will say other areas of medical though, we have seen really good growth in this year, including like long dose drug delivery, diabetes applications, et cetera. So medical overall, I would say, has recovered. It's just specifically the implant business, which is our GUR business, which will be into 2022 before we see full normalization.

因此，如果我們看一下植入物，這也是您提出的問題，那麼植入物在第二季度有所改善。我們預計它們將在年底前繼續復甦，並在 2022 年真正恢復正常水平。不過，我想說的是，我們今年在醫療的其他領域也看到了非常好的成長，包括長劑量藥物傳遞、糖尿病應用等等。所以我想說，整體醫療狀況已經恢復。具體來說，就是植入物業務，也就是我們的 GUR 業務，要到 2022 年才能完全正常化。

I think auto, which is the other big end market, as we called out in our comments was down 8% in the quarter, but that's versus North America dropping builds of 12% and in Germany dropping builds of 15%, which is our 2 largest end markets. And so we think we've been helped there. Autos have prioritized premium vehicles.

我認為，正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，另一個大型終端市場汽車市場在本季度下降了 8%，但相比之下，北美下降了 12%，德國下降了 15%，而這兩個市場是我們最大的終端市場。因此我們認為我們得到了幫助。汽車業優先考慮高檔車輛。

We've talked about that in the past, and we have the majority of our content in premium vehicles. But we're also seeing a real help from our programs that we put in place, specifically around electric vehicles. So if you think about it in the EU, 17% of all electric vehicle cells are now -- sorry, of all vehicle cells are now electric vehicles. And so that project pipeline where we've grown that -- those volumes have really helped us.

我們過去曾討論過這個問題，我們的大部分內容都集中在高檔汽車上。但我們也看到我們實施的計畫確實帶來了幫助，特別是在電動車方面。所以如果你想想在歐盟，現在所有電動車電池的 17% 都是——抱歉，現在所有汽車電池都是電動車。因此，我們擴大的專案管道——這些數量確實對我們有很大幫助。

We've also, as we called out and expanding our content in electric vehicles. So we talked about the 20 kilograms content that we have in Europe for 1 of our EVs, which is 4x our average ICE. Just to give you another idea, just GUR alone is 6 to 8 kilograms per electric vehicle. So a really big space that we have. We have really good polymers to go into those spaces.

正如我們所呼籲的，我們也擴大了我們在電動車方面的內容。因此，我們討論了我們在歐洲生產的 1 輛電動車的碳含量為 20 公斤，這是我們平均內燃機的 4 倍。再給你一個概念，光是 GUR 一項，每輛電動車的重量就達到 6 至 8 公斤。所以我們擁有非常大的空間。我們擁有非常好的聚合物來應用於這些空間。

So as we go to the second half, we do expect growth again in Q3 as we see chip recovery, and we've had resin recovery. We probably won't be back to Q1 levels in Q3, but anticipate we'll be back to Q1 levels for auto by Q4. And we continue to see that few percent growth across other end uses as we move through the end of the year.

因此，隨著我們進入下半年，我們確實預計第三季將再次出現成長，因為我們看到晶片復甦，樹脂也出現復甦。我們可能不會在第三季度恢復到第一季的水平，但預計到第四季度汽車銷售將恢復到第一季的水平。隨著年底的臨近，我們繼續看到其他最終用途的百分之幾的增長。

And kind of a follow-up, Lori, I think in the past, you talked about some parts of the EM had become a little bit more commoditized. Was there any over-earning, over-margined products during the second quarter? Or is there still margin upside on some of those more mainstream products there?

作為後續，Lori，我認為在過去，您談到 EM 的某些部分已經變得更加商品化了。第二季是否有獲利超額、利潤率過高的產品？或者那裡的一些更主流的產品是否仍然具有利潤上升空間？

No. I think there's still more upside on margin of our products. I mean we had a few. If you look at our margin percent this quarter, we had a few impacts there that brought our margin down slightly from last quarter. Some of it was increased spend in the plants as we needed to add more people to deal with the increased demand. We also had higher energy costs, especially in Europe. And then logistics and transportation, as I'm sure you're hearing from other, was certainly a big headwind this past quarter and will continue to be a headwind probably through the end of the year and even into early next year. So I think as we see labor markets stabilize, as we see logistics and transportation stabilize, I think we would expect to get back to previous levels of margin going forward.

不。我認為我們的產品的利潤率還有更大的上升空間。我的意思是我們有幾個。如果你看一下本季的利潤率，你會發現我們受到了一些影響，導致利潤率較上一季略有下降。部分原因是我們需要增加工廠支出，以應對日益增長的需求。我們的能源成本也更高，尤其是在歐洲。然後，我相信您也聽到了其他人的消息，物流和運輸無疑是上個季度的一大阻力，並且可能將持續到今年年底甚至明年年初。因此，我認為，隨著勞動力市場穩定，隨著物流和運輸穩定，我們有望恢復到以前的利潤水平。

I would also just say, Bob, the real difference here from what we've seen in the past is our constraint in Q2 and continuing in Q3 is not demand-driven. It's really supply-constrained. It's our ability to make resin, get the additives, especially glass fiber as we called out, which has continued to deteriorate as we move through second quarter and into third quarter. It's really supply-constrained. So there is also more volume upside as we go forward and are able to resolve those supply constraints.

我還想說，鮑勃，與我們過去所見的真正的區別在於，我們在第二季度的限制以及在第三季度繼續的限制不是由需求驅動的。供應確實受到限制。我們生產樹脂、添加劑（尤其是我們所謂的玻璃纖維）的能力，隨著第二季和第三季的到來而持續下降。供應確實受到限制。因此，隨著我們不斷前進並能夠解決這些供應限制，產量將進一步上升。

Yes, Bob, and I just want to clarify. And I think what we've said in the past, these are really -- those what you alluded to are standard applications. They have more competition in them, but these are still engineered solutions. And we obviously work on kind of the more value and use premium side for our new project pipeline, but that standard part of the portfolio is always going to be a real critical element and really building blocks to get in the door in a lot of places.

是的，鮑勃，我只是想澄清一下。我認為我們過去所說的，這些實際上——您所提到的那些是標準應用程式。他們面臨更多的競爭，但這些仍然是工程解決方案。顯然，我們正在為新的專案管道致力於更高價值和更優質的使用，但投資組合的標準部分始終是真正的關鍵要素，也是在許多地方進入市場的基石。

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Given that there's been so much supply volatility and volatility in demand, has your -- have your cost-cutting programs executed along the lines that you've expected? Or have many of the cost savings been deferred to next year? I understand prices are up a lot and you're making a lot of money. But in terms of the way that you've been trying to make your operations more efficient, are things delayed?

鑑於供應和需求波動如此之大，您的成本削減計劃是否按照您預期的方式執行？或者說許多成本節省已經延後到明年了？我知道價格漲了很多，你賺了很多錢。但是，就您試圖提高營運效率的方式而言，事情是否被推遲了？

Yes. No, it's a great question. So we had outlined before, we expected to get -- we are targeting $100 million to $150 million gross productivity. We are on track to deliver $150 million of gross productivity this year. So those are cost savings. I would say other years, we might have outperformed that. I mean, certainly, we did last year. This year, I'd say we're going to hit that $150 million. But what we're also seeing is a lot of opportunity and revenue optimization. So plant optimization, small debottleneck projects. So we are focusing more on how do we get more molecules out because we are supply-constrained, but we will still deliver at that kind of historical level of cost productivity as well.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題。所以我們之前已經概述過，我們預計獲得——我們的目標是 1 億至 1.5 億美元的總生產力。我們今年可望實現 1.5 億美元的總生產力。所以這些都是成本節省。我想說，其他年份我們可能會表現得更好。我的意思是，我們去年確實這麼做了。今年，我想我們將達到 1.5 億美元。但我們也看到了很多機會和收入優化。因此，工廠優化，小型瓶頸消除專案。因此，由於供應受限，我們更加關注如何生產更多的分子，但我們仍將以歷史水準的成本生產率交付產品。

Yes, Jeff, we typically break productivity into 4 buckets. Rev gen, I would say, manufacturing cost reduction, procurement cost reduction. And then I would say more kind of S&A type reduction. I mean the S&A bucket is very small this year. The procurement bucket is very small this year. Where we've shifted it in 2021 is more on manufacturing costs in rev gen as Lori talked about.

是的，傑夫，我們通常將生產力分為 4 個類別。Rev gen，我想說，製造成本降低，採購成本降低。然後我想說的是更多類型的 S&A 減少。我的意思是今年的 S&A 金額非常小。今年的採購量非常少。正如 Lori 談到的，我們在 2021 年所做的轉變更集中在 rev gen 的製造成本。

And then my follow-up. When you talked about your acquisition criteria, are your acquisition -- and you talked about your acquisition criteria being return-based. Does that mean that the direction of your acquisitions really may go in the direction of diversification over time? And that is, should we view Celanese as really not being bound by wanting to have more polymers, but really trying to find other businesses if they're available, where the industry structures are good, and you think you -- that the returns are high?

然後是我的後續行動。當您談到您的收購標準時，您的收購標準是—並且您談到您的收購標準是基於回報的。這是否意味著隨著時間的推移，你們的收購方向確實可能會朝著多樣化的方向發展？也就是說，我們是否應該認為塞拉尼斯實際上並不受想要擁有更多聚合物的束縛，而是真正試圖尋找其他可用的業務，如果這些業務的行業結構良好，並且您認為回報率很高的話？

Yes. Look, I don't think we're going to go out and acquire something completely out of our lane. One of our criteria is we want to be able to deliver synergies. And we want to -- and to do that, it means we have to either be familiar with the end market, be able to use our model. So what I'm saying is it doesn't have to be a thermoplastic. There are other areas we could think of, but I would still want them to have in markets that we're familiar with and where we think our sales force and commercial teams and manufacturing teams could add value to, or we could apply them to our engineered materials model or our acetyl model. So they may be new materials to us, but they will have some connection to our existing business.

是的。聽著，我不認為我們會出去獲取一些完全超出我們能力範圍的東西。我們的標準之一是我們希望能夠產生協同效應。我們希望——要做到這一點，就意味著我們必須熟悉終端市場，能夠使用我們的模型。所以我的意思是它不一定是熱塑性塑膠。我們也可以想到其他領域，但我仍然希望它們進入我們熟悉的市場，我們認為我們的銷售團隊、商業團隊和製造團隊可以為這些市場增加價值，或者我們可以將它們應用於我們的工程材料模型或乙醯模型。因此，它們對我們來說可能是新材料，但它們與我們現有的業務有某種聯繫。

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Scott, I just wanted to ask you on the free cash flow. I appreciate the comments about the working capital build in the quarter. But as we look out of this year and into next year, and you gave some sort of preliminary EPS view on '22, how should we be thinking about working capital and free cash flow generation as conditions normalize? And I guess I'd just mean it in terms of where is it going to be, number one?

史考特，我只是想問你有關自由現金流的問題。我很欣賞關於本季營運資金建設的評論。但是，當我們展望今年和明年時，您對 22 年的每股盈餘給出了一些初步的看法，那麼在情況正常化時，我們應該如何考慮營運資本和自由現金流的產生？我想我只是想問第一點，它會在哪裡？

And then number two, given everything that's going on with raw materials and availability and so forth, is there any consideration being given to hold more raw materials so that you can be sort of better positioned or opportunistic when we continue to see supply disruptions?

第二，考慮到原材料和供應等方面的現狀，是否有考慮持有更多原材料，以便在供應中斷時能夠更好地定位或抓住機會？

Yes. Let me take the last part of that first, Vincent. I think I would say we don't take a one size fits all. I mean, I think it really depends upon the business and the material and where we're at and how we see things going forward and particularly how our business is performing. And certainly, reliability of supply in certain materials is very important for us right now. And so we may choose to hold a little bit more raw material, if possible, if we can get it in certain areas of tightness. We are not going to be bound by that working capital number because our working capital efficiency has historically been very strong, and we can bring that down fairly quickly, if necessary, in the future.

是的。文森特，讓我先講最後一部分。我想說我們不會採取一刀切的做法。我的意思是，我認為這實際上取決於業務和材料以及我們所處的位置以及我們如何看待未來發展，特別是我們的業務表現如何。當然，某些材料的供應可靠性對我們來說現在非常重要。因此，如果可能的話，如果我們能在某些緊張地區獲得原材料，我們可能會選擇保留更多的原材料。我們不會受到營運資本數字的約束，因為我們的營運資本效率歷來非常高，如果將來有必要，我們可以相當快地降低這個數字。

I think in terms of how we see that working its way, our greater than $1.2 billion for the year assumes we get some of that working capital back towards the end of the year, but certainly not all of it and certainly not back to how we started the year. And so a lot will depend upon what happens with raw materials and as well as our pricing. I mean one of the important characteristics here is accounts receivable. And with what we've seen in pricing in Asia, in acetyls which tends to have slightly longer payment terms, we're carrying a little more accounts receivable today than what we have historically. So as that normalizes, we'll get some of that back. And so there will be a catch-up likely into next year.

我認為，就我們如何看待這一進程而言，我們今年超過 12 億美元的資金假設我們在年底前收回部分營運資金，但肯定不是全部，也肯定不會恢復到年初的水平。因此，很大程度上取決於原材料的情況以及我們的定價。我的意思是這裡的一個重要特徵是應收帳款。從我們在亞洲的定價情況來看，乙醯基產品的付款期限往往略長一些，因此我們目前的應收帳款比歷史上要多一些。因此，隨著情況恢復正常，我們將收回部分損失。因此，明年很可能會迎來追趕。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, there were also comments in the release about sort of the Chinese price will be coming down, but there'll still be strength in Europe and India because I think there was a reference that there's typically a lag. Just wanted to better understand sort of what causes that dynamic where it doesn't get harmed out pretty quickly that you could have serious price discrepancies between those 3 areas.

好的。作為後續報導，新聞稿中也有評論稱，中國的價格將會下降，但歐洲和印度的價格仍將保持強勁，因為我認為有提到通常存在滯後。只是想更好地理解是什麼導致了這種動態，這種動態不會很快受到損害，以至於這三個領域之間可能會出現嚴重的價格差異。

Yes. Look, if you think about it, I mean there's not much acetic acid production in India. So basically, that material comes out of China or Singapore or somewhere else in the world. So you have a shipping delay, but price is done at the [globe]. Same for Europe. Most of the material going into Europe comes either from the U.S. or from Asia. And so you have that shipping delay as well. It's really just as simple as that.

是的。瞧，如果你仔細想想，你會發現印度的乙酸產量不多。所以基本上，這些材料來自中國、新加坡或世界其他地方。因此，您的運輸可能會延遲，但價格已在 [global] 確定。歐洲也一樣。進入歐洲的大部分材料來自美國或亞洲。因此也會出現運輸延遲的情況。確實就是這麼簡單。

Our next question is come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Lori, in the prepared remarks, you had indicated the 2023 goals were likely going to come in around -- or in 2022. Can you just clarify whether that is inclusive or exclusive of Santoprene and if it's really just a reflection of kind of the current markets and your comfort in the demand fundamentals or if it does include the M&A?

洛里，在準備好的發言中，你曾表示 2023 年的目標可能會在 2022 年左右實現。您能否澄清一下這是否包括或不包括 Santoprene，以及這是否只是當前市場的反映以及您對需求基本面的信心，或者它是否包括併購？

Yes. Look, we'll give better guidance in October as we have more time to work through this. I would say the $13 to $14 earnings per share that we had for '23 were now pulling into '22. I would look at it's at -- it's that range with or without Santoprene. Now I mean Santoprene is definitely value accretive to us, but we did model in all of our cash being used for stock purchases. So while there's some uplift, I would say I'd look at Santoprene and taking this closer to the high end of that range; as without Santoprene, we would have been at the lower end of that range.

是的。你看，我們將在十月提供更好的指導，因為我們有更多的時間來解決這個問題。我想說，我們 23 年每股收益 13 至 14 美元，現在已進入 22 年。我會觀察它的 - 有或沒有 Santoprene 的範圍。現在我的意思是 Santoprene 肯定會為我們增加價值，但我們確實將所有現金用於購買股票。因此，雖然有一些提升，但我想說我會專注於 Santoprene 並將其更接近該範圍的高端；因為如果沒有 Santoprene，我們就會處於該範圍的低端。

Got it. Fair enough. And then I guess just as a follow-up, the guide is actually a pretty tight range for the rest of the year. And I guess, just given the volatility that you're seeing in all the markets, I guess I'm curious how you get comfortable with such a tight range on such a big base. Is it -- have you locked in, in terms of some of the commodity prices? Have some customers reached out to try to maybe lock in things for the year? Or I guess, how do you get as much comfort as you have in such a volatile market?

知道了。很公平。然後我想作為後續行動，該指南實際上是今年剩餘時間的一個相當狹窄的範圍。我想，考慮到您在所有市場中看到的波動性，我很好奇您如何在如此大的基礎上適應如此狹窄的區間。您是否已經鎖定了一些商品的價格？是否有一些客戶主動聯繫您並試圖鎖定全年訂單？或者我想，在如此動盪的市場中，您如何獲得如此多的安慰？

Yes. Look, if you look at Q3 guidance, I would say from knowing what our books are, we're halfway through the quarter already from our standpoint. So we can get pretty comfortable with Q3. And then I think for the full year, it's a little bit different that again, we're really supply-constrained. It's not a demand constraint. So even with some volatility in the market, we still can only sell the amount of material we have, and we know how much material we have.

是的。你看，如果你看一下第三季的指引，我會說，從我們的帳簿來看，從我們的角度來看，我們已經過了本季的一半了。因此我們對第三季感到十分滿意。然後我認為，對於全年而言，情況會有所不同，我們的供應確實受到限制。這不是需求限制。因此，即使市場出現一些波動，我們仍然只能銷售我們擁有的材料數量，我們知道我們有多少材料。

So I mean, yes, there could be big swings in acetyls and that could change a bit. But we just gave -- it was a narrow range admittedly, but we just kind of said, here is what our projection is, given that we are fairly close to the end of the year.

所以我的意思是，是的，乙醯基可能會有很大的波動，而且可能會發生一點變化。但我們只是給了——不可否認，這是一個狹窄的範圍，但我們只是說，考慮到我們已經相當接近年底，這是我們的預測。

Yes. And John, I think we tried to outline in the prepared remarks some of the assumptions we've made to get to that range. So as those change a little bit, then we'll update that in October.

是的。約翰，我認為我們試圖在準備好的發言中概述我們為達到該範圍所做的一些假設。因此，如果這些內容有一點變化，我們將在十月進行更新。

Our next questions come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Lori, a question around regional demand trends. Obviously, it seems the pace of vaccination is very different by region, particularly in Asia, still some lockdowns continuing over there. And then on top of that, you sort of overlay some of these supply chain constraints that you guys were talking about, others have talked about as well.

洛瑞，有一個關於區域需求趨勢的問題。顯然，不同地區的疫苗接種速度似乎有很大差異，尤其是在亞洲，那裡的一些封鎖仍在繼續。在此基礎上，你還可以疊加一些你們正在談論的以及其他人也談論過的供應鏈限制。

So, a, what are you guys seeing in terms of demand growth disparities between regions? And then on a go-forward basis, what does this tell you about demand growth? I mean are we going to be in a period of above normal demand growth as more and more parts of the world sort of start normalizing and sort of lockdowns start waning?

那麼，你們認為不同地區之間需求成長的差異如何？那麼從未來來看，這對需求成長有何啟示？我的意思是，隨著世界上越來越多的地區開始恢復正常，封鎖開始減弱，我們是否將進入一個需求成長高於正常水平的時期？

Yes. I would say at this point in time, I mean, certainly, as we started coming out of COVID, we saw it kind of move around the globe where Asia was strong earlier and then the Americas and Europe was slowest to recover. I would say at this point, demand is pretty normalized around the globe in terms of being pretty consistent across regions. Interesting enough, I mean, while we're worried about the Delta variant, we haven't seen it have much impact yet, although that is a concern. As I said, we see some signs that there may be some impact on Southeast Asia. But I would say, in general, the globe is pretty consistent right now in terms of recovery.

是的。我想說的是，在目前這個時間點，我的意思是，當然，當我們開始擺脫新冠疫情時，我們看到它在全球範圍內蔓延，其中亞洲早些時候表現強勁，然後美洲和歐洲的複蘇最慢。我想說，目前，全球的需求已經相當正常化，各地區的需求也相當一致。有趣的是，我的意思是，雖然我們擔心 Delta 變體，但我們還沒有看到它產生太大的影響，儘管這是一個令人擔憂的問題。正如我所說，我們看到一些跡象表明這可能會對東南亞產生一些影響。但我想說，整體而言，目前全球復甦動能相當一致。

Understood. And now moving on to the tow business. Obviously, very strong volume growth sequentially in Q2. And I guess, in sort of the written remarks, you guys talked about some of the Q1 demand sort of going, carrying forward into Q2. How are you guys thinking about demand growth or volume growth in that business in the back half of the year?

明白了。現在我們來談談拖車業務。顯然，第二季的銷量環比成長非常強勁。我想，在書面評論中，你們談到了一些第一季的需求將延續到第二季​​。你們如何看待今年下半年該業務的需求成長或銷售成長？

Yes. I mean, really, the volume growth in Q2 was, in fact, what you just called out, which is we work with customers in Q1 because of the freeze and our shortage of acetic acid. So we worked with customers in Q1 and to push demand into Q2. And so if you look back at Q1, we had reduced volumes in Q1. Those volumes showed up in Q2.

是的。我的意思是，實際上，第二季度的銷售成長實際上就是您剛才所說的，即由於凍結和醋酸短缺，我們在第一季與客戶合作。因此，我們在第一季與客戶合作，並將需求推至第二季。因此，如果回顧第一季度，我們在第一季的銷量有所減少。這些交易量在第二季出現。

I think we actually see volumes being stable through the rest of the year kind of at the average. I'd expect the second half volumes to look kind of like the first half volumes. Earnings will be less because acetic acid pricing remains high relative to historical. We have higher energy costs, especially in Europe and just the timing of our dividends from our Chinese JV, which typically are heavily weighted to the first half.

我認為我們實際上看到今年剩餘時間的銷售量保持穩定，處於平均水平。我希望後半卷看起來有點像前半卷。由於醋酸價格相對於歷史價格仍然較高，因此收益將會減少。我們的能源成本較高，尤其是在歐洲，我們中國合資企業的股利發放時間通常主要集中在上半年。

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, just on the M&A pipeline, excluding CeramTec, how is that pipeline today?

Lori，僅就併購通路而言，不包括 CeramTec，目前該通路狀況如何？

I'd say our M&A pipeline remains very robust. We continue to look at deals of all sizes. I mean you saw that with Santoprene, which is a big bolt-on, Grupa Azoty, which was a small bolt-on and then even some divestitures we did.

我想說我們的併購管道仍然非常強勁。我們將繼續關注各種規模的交易。我的意思是，你看到了 Santoprene，這是一個大的附加產品，Grupa Azoty，這是一個小的附加產品，甚至我們還進行了一些資產剝離。

So I think we remain very active looking at our portfolio, where we want to add, where we need to take away. I would say we're very actively looking at deals of all sizes. We certainly have the financial capacity as well as the management capacity to continue to look at additional M&A through the rest of this year and into next year.

因此，我認為我們仍然非常積極地審視我們的投資組合，看看我們想增加什麼，需要減少什麼。我想說我們正在非常積極地尋找各種規模的交易。我們當然有財務能力和管理能力在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續考慮更多的併購。

And Lori, just in the prepared comments, you've laid out a number of projects, many of which come online over the next couple of years. How is that next tranche of projects do you mind at '24 through '25, '26 projects late looking in? Is it different than the current one we were in right now?

洛里，在準備好的評論中，您列出了許多項目，其中許多項目將在未來幾年內上線。您覺得 2024 年至 2025 年、2026 年的下一批專案進度如何？它和我們現在所處的狀態有什麼不同嗎？

Yes. So really, the only thing we have kind of on the books at this point in time for that period is GUR expansion in EU, which we expect to come online in 2024. I would say, given that we're just in 2021, we're just now starting to look at what will our demands and needs to be in that period of time.

是的。因此，實際上，目前我們針對該時期唯一的計劃就是在歐盟進行 GUR 擴張，我們預計該擴張將於 2024 年上線。我想說，鑑於我們剛進入 2021 年，我們現在才開始考慮在這段時間內我們的需求和需求是什麼。

Our next questions come from the line of Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。

This is Richard actually on for Mike. So my first question is on Engineered Materials. It looks like you were able to get a 7% increase in price in the second quarter. You also talked about sourcing challenges and raw material cost inflation. How much of the price increase was to offset the cost, higher cost? And -- or how much was that just part of adding value to your customers?

這實際上是理查德 (Richard) 為邁克 (Mike) 所做的。我的第一個問題是關於工程材料的。看起來你們在第二季實現了 7% 的價格上漲。您還談到了採購挑戰和原材料成本上漲。價格漲了多少才能抵銷成本增加？或者說，這在多大程度上只是為您的客戶增加價值的一部分？

Yes. I would say, look, our teams worked really aggressively through starting in fourth quarter of last year actually to really push price knowing that we saw this increase in raw material pricing coming. So I would say that was the primary reason for the price increase. But we did raise price more than we saw our raw materials increasing. And I think that's question of mix.

是的。我想說，你看，我們的團隊從去年第四季開始就非常積極地努力推高價格，因為我們知道原物料價格即將上漲。所以我認為這是價格上漲的主要原因。但我們漲價的幅度確實超過了原物料漲幅。我認為這是一個混合的問題。

I mean, look, we are in a very tight supply-constrained situation. So we have been prioritizing our higher-margin products and our higher market -- higher-margin regions to really maximize the return that we get for the molecules that we have available to sell to the market.

我的意思是，我們正處於供應非常緊張的情況。因此，我們一直優先考慮利潤率更高的產品和更高的市場——利潤率更高的地區，以真正實現我們向市場銷售的分子的最大化回報。

Okay. And as a follow-up, on the acetyl chain, you gave some color in terms of pricing coming down in the second half. What's your view on spreads? Obviously, your low cost, but I guess your agent competitors could get squeezed if prices continue to fall. So how do you think about that heading into the end of this year?

好的。作為後續問題，關於乙醯鏈，您給出了下半年價格下降的一些資訊。您對利差有何看法？顯然，您的成本很低，但我想如果價格繼續下跌，您的代理競爭對手可能會受到擠壓。那麼，您如何看待今年年底的這種情況？

Yes. I mean, certainly, if you look at China, for example, our technology is certainly advantaged versus the [carbon] filter technology or some of the others. As prices fall, they will get squeezed in terms of margins. Clearly, our capacity on the Gulf Coast, which uses natural gas is the most cost-effective in the world. And so we will still maintain that advantage on margins versus competitors as prices continue to moderate.

是的。我的意思是，當然，如果你看看中國，我們的技術肯定比[碳]過濾技術或其他一些技術更有優勢。隨著價格下跌，他們的利潤空間將受到擠壓。顯然，我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的天然氣產能是世界上最具成本效益的。因此，隨著價格持續走低，我們仍將保持相對於競爭對手的利潤優勢。

Our next questions come from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

Can you talk about your elastomers acquisition from Exxon? What are the industries you are targeting? Why do you think, in your mind, Exxon is getting out? And is there any supply coming online? What's the supply demand there? Is there any new supply coming online in China or elsewhere?

您能談談從埃克森美孚收購彈性體的情況嗎？您瞄準的是哪些產業？您認為埃克森美孚退出的原因是什麼？有沒有上線供應？那裡的供應需求如何？中國或其他地方是否有新的供應？

Yes. Look, we're really excited about this acquisition. I mean you'll have to ask Exxon why they're getting out. I will give you my opinion, which is look, they've only had this business since 1980s. It was a JV. They acquired it fully in, I think, about -- maybe 2010, sometime in that first decade.

是的。看，我們對這次收購感到非常興奮。我的意思是你必須問埃克森美孚為什麼要退出。我來給你我的看法，那就是，他們從 1980 年代才開始從事這項業務。這是一家合資企業。我認為他們大約在 2010 年，也就是第一個十年的某個時候，就完全掌握了它。

Look, this is not one of their core businesses. Exxon is an oil and gas, commodity chemical player. This is a highly specialized business. And I'm sure, while they've enjoyed the margins and returns from it, it's not -- it doesn't really fit their model of what they're trying to do. And having come out of an Exxon specialty business, they struggle to run them in a way that can be highly competitive with others. So my guess is they realized it was more valuable to us than it was to them.

看，這不是他們的核心業務之一。埃克森美孚是一家石油、天然氣和大宗化學品公司。這是一項高度專業化的業務。而且我確信，雖然他們享受了由此帶來的利潤和回報，但這並不——這並不真正符合他們試圖做的模式。在脫離埃克森美孚特種業務後，他們努力以一種能夠與其他公司進行高度競爭的方式經營這些業務。所以我猜他們意識到它對我們來說比對他們更有價值。

If you look at end markets, it is largely into auto. Think things that need to be recyclable or long life or soft touch or lightweighting. But there are also applications for it into medical applications, into construction, think seals around windows and skyscrapers. And so as we look at it, we think it's a really good fit for us to cross-sell with our automotive side. We think there are some really exciting new applications in medical going forward that given our knowledge now at the medical and pharma industry, we can exploit. And so we think there's a lot of opportunities there to really apply these materials to businesses we already know, already understand and already know how to access the market.

如果你看一下終端市場，你會發現它主要集中在汽車市場。想想那些需要可回收、長壽命、柔軟觸感或輕量化的東西。但它也可以應用於醫療、建築領域，例如窗戶和摩天大樓周圍的密封。因此，我們認為，與我們的汽車業務進行交叉銷售非常適合。我們認為，未來醫療領域將會出現一些真正令人興奮的新應用，憑藉我們目前在醫療和製藥行業的知識，我們可以加以利用。因此，我們認為有很多機會將這些材料真正應用到我們已經知道、已經了解並且已經知道如何進入市場的業務中。

Again, our willingness to do -- deal with complexity is just different than Exxon. We deal with small orders every day. That's not something Exxon wants to do. They -- so I think we see a lot of value uplift opportunity here in what we consider very profitable end markets as we go forward.

再說一次，我們處理複雜問題的意願與埃克森美孚不同。我們每天都會處理小訂單。這不是埃克森美孚想要做的事情。所以我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，我們在非常有利可圖的終端市場中看到了許多價值提升機會。

In terms of new capacity, we are not aware of any new capacity coming on in this area. It is a highly specialized material. And we don't see any -- now, we don't anticipate any for the future. This, in fact, Exxon had grown the capacity of this business in just the last couple of years, I think, in the Newport facility.

就新產能而言，我們不知道該地區有任何新產能出現。它是一種高度專業化的材料。我們現在沒有看到任何變化，我們也不預期未來會出現任何變化。事實上，我認為埃克森美孚在過去幾年中已經在紐波特工廠擴大了這項業務的產能。

Yes. P.J, just on that last point, I think it's important to remember, I mean, this really is an engineered solution. And supply-demand utilization, a lot less important here, in these businesses, much like our other Engineered Materials businesses because of the value and use element and the uniqueness and differentiation of what this material and this brand brings to customers. And that was really one of the real attractive elements to this to be really complementary to our Engineered Materials business.

是的。P.J，關於最後一點，我認為需要記住的是，這確實是一個精心設計的解決方案。而供需利用率在這些業務中不那麼重要，就像我們的其他工程材料業務一樣，因為這種材料和品牌為客戶帶來的價值和使用因素以及獨特性和差異化。這確實是真正有吸引力的因素之一，可以真正補充我們的工程材料業務。

Great. And Lori, overall question on the tightness in logistics and labor markets that you talked about. You think they'll last into 2022. Is that a U.S. phenomenon? Or is that happening in Europe as well? And why do you think this is taking a long time to get ironed out? Is it the logistics part of the issue? Or is it the labor market? Can you just talk a little bit more about that?

偉大的。洛里，您提到的總體問題是關於物流和勞動市場的緊張程度。您認為它們將持續到 2022 年。這是美國現象嗎？或者歐洲也發生同樣的情況？您認為為什麼這個問題需要花很長時間才能解決？這是問題的物流部分嗎？還是勞動市場？您能再多談一下這個嗎？

Yes, I think they're are really 2 separate things. I mean I would say the logistics and transportation issues are global. I mean certainly global. We see a lot of problems for people trying to get things out of China, as you know, but I would say really, whatever what you're going, it's pretty hard right now. Whether it's by ship or on ground or rail, there is just a lot of volume being moved around the world. Not sure I could explain all the reasons why, but certainly, people are moving more things around. I mean, just even the amount of things you buy on Amazon these days.

是的，我認為它們實際上是兩件獨立的事情。我的意思是說物流和運輸問題是全球性的。我的意思當然是全球性的。正如你所知，我們看到人們在試圖將物品運出中國時遇到了很多問題，但我想說的是，無論你做什麼，現在都非常困難。無論是透過船舶、地面運輸或鐵路運輸，全球範圍內的運輸量都非常大。我不確定我是否可以解釋所有的原因，但可以肯定的是，人們正在移動更多的東西。我的意思是，現在你在亞馬遜上購買的東西的數量就和現在一樣多。

It's -- we just see a real constraint there. And that's really what I was referring to. I think it's well into next year, I think possibly even after Chinese New Year before we really start to see stabilization in those markets.

我們只是看到了那裡的一個真正的限制。這確實就是我所指的。我認為要到明年，甚至可能要等到農曆新年之後，我們才能真正開始看到這些市場穩定下來。

The labor phenomenon I discussed has really been more of an issue in the U.S. than in other parts of the world. We haven't had as many issues in Asia, for example, nor we had the issues in China. But in the U.S., I think we just -- we see people we're hiring to expand and run our plants, are also being hired by Amazon to run their warehouses, for example.

我所討論的勞工現像在美國確實比在世界其他地區更為嚴重。例如，我們在亞洲沒有遇到那麼多問題，在中國也沒有遇到那麼多問題。但在美國，我認為我們看到我們僱用的人員來擴大和運營我們的工廠，同時也被亞馬遜僱用來運營他們的倉庫。

And so it's just a very competitive labor market, and we've had to make adjustments as we've wanted to add shifts and do things that would let us expand rather quickly to our labor rates. But I think in time, this will stabilize as we see more people going back to work in the U.S., I think this will also stabilize. But I do think probably on this will take into next year as well.

因此，這是一個競爭非常激烈的勞動力市場，我們必須做出調整，因為我們希望增加班次並採取措施讓我們的勞動力率迅速擴大。但我認為隨著時間的推移，隨著我們看到越來越多的人重返美國工作，這種情況也會穩定下來。但我確實認為這也可能持續到明年。

Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Lori, I thought your guidance in Engineered Materials was quite constructive. But I wanted to peel the onion a little bit more with regard to the glass fiber shortage. Can you talk about the upside opportunities and the downside risks related to that supply shortage, for example, on the volume side, how much might you be constrained? What are you baking into guidance there?

洛里，我認為你在工程材料方面的指導非常有建設性。但我想進一步解釋玻璃纖維短缺的問題。您能否談談與供應短缺相關的上行機會和下行風險，例如，在產量方面，您可能會受到多大的限制？您在那裡制定了哪些指導方針？

And then on the price side, I guess my question would be, is there opportunity to capitalize by raising price in the engineered products that might require glass fiber. I assume that's certain polyesters and maybe Celstran and some nylon grades. Maybe you could just elaborate on what's going on there.

然後在價格方面，我想我的問題是，是否有機會透過提高可能需要玻璃纖維的工程產品的價格來獲利。我認為那是某些聚酯，也許是 Celstran 和一些尼龍等級。也許您可以詳細說明那裡發生的事情。

Yes. Maybe to be a little bit more clear on the characterization. I mean if we look at second quarter, we would estimate, we probably lost as much as $5 million revenue due to problems around glass fiber as well as a little bit of logistics transportation issues. If we looked at third quarter, that number is probably going to double. But we do expect it to resolve and we get some of those volumes back starting in the fourth quarter and going into 2022.

是的。也許可以更清楚地描述一下特徵。我的意思是，如果我們看一下第二季度，我們估計，由於玻璃纖維問題以及一些物流運輸問題，我們可能損失了高達 500 萬美元的收入。如果我們看第三季度，這個數字可能會翻倍。但我們確實希望這個問題能夠解決，並且從第四季度開始到 2022 年，我們將恢復部分交易量。

Look, we are seeing glass fiber makers coming back. We are seeing the volumes go up. Glass fiber that goes into polymer is a very small percentage of the glass fiber market, but it's probably one of the more profitable segments for them. So we do expect to start seeing more glass fiber coming back towards us as we move into fourth quarter.

瞧，我們看到玻璃纖維製造商正在回歸。我們看到交易量正在上升。用於聚合物的玻璃纖維只佔玻璃纖維市場的一小部分，但它可能是他們利潤更高的部分之一。因此，我們確實預計，隨著進入第四季度，將會看到更多的玻璃纖維回歸。

Look, I think long term, as this goes on, it has been an opportunity for us to convert people to other polymers. Our polymers that also have glass fibers that we prioritized because they're higher-margin polymers, so that people can get their product. So I think there is some upside here, and we've been able to convert some of it to higher margin products. But I think long term, it is about 1/3 of our portfolio that uses glass fiber. So it is a pretty important raw material for us going forward. And we've taken steps commercially to secure supply of glass fiber in future years. So hopefully, we don't run into this problem again.

看，我認為從長遠來看，隨著這種情況的發生，這對我們來說是一個讓人們轉向其他聚合物的機會。我們的聚合物中也含有玻璃纖維，我們優先考慮它們，因為它們是利潤率更高的聚合物，這樣人們就可以獲得他們的產品。所以我認為這裡存在一些好處，而且我們已經能夠將其中一部分轉化為利潤更高的產品。但我認為從長遠來看，我們的產品組合中約有三分之一使用玻璃纖維。因此，對於我們未來的發展來說，它是非常重要的原料。我們已經採取商業措施來確保未來幾年玻璃纖維的供應。所以希望我們不要再遇到這個問題。

That's really helpful. And then secondly, if I may, do you have plant maintenance turnarounds in the third quarter or the fourth quarter that we should be keeping in mind for modeling purposes?

這真的很有幫助。其次，如果可以的話，您是否有第三季或第四季的工廠維護週轉情況，我們應該將其記在心裡以用於建模目的？

No. I mean we always have small turnarounds and maintenance items. But the total for this year is only $30 million for the entirety of the year and it's split pretty evenly between the first half and the second half. So it's not anything of note as that you're going to notice in terms of our volumes or our costs.

不。我的意思是我們總是有一些小的周轉和維護項目。但今年全年總額僅 3,000 萬美元，而且上半年和下半年的分配相當平均。因此，就我們的數量或成本而言，您不會注意到任何值得注意的事情。

Our next questions come from the line of Alex Yefremov with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Alex Yefremov。

You mentioned in your prepared remarks 8% sequential impact on automotive volumes. Did that number include the shortages of nylon, glass fiber, PBT, et cetera? Or were those raw material shortages, some additional impact on top of that? And if so, how large was that?

您在準備好的評論中提到了對汽車銷售 8% 的連續影響。這個數字是否包括尼龍、玻璃纖維、PBT 等的短缺？或是原料短缺還有其他影響嗎？如果是的話，規模有多大？

Yes. No, that was inclusive of everything. That was both demand from auto as well as constraints we had due to resin and additive supplies.

是的。不，那包括了一切。這既是汽車產業的需求，也是樹脂和添加劑供應的限制。

So if we're trying to normalize sort of your volumes for current state of demand, it's that 8% and maybe automotive is 1/3 of your business. So something like 2.5% should be added to top line when everything is running well. Is that the right way to think about things?

因此，如果我們嘗試根據當前需求狀況來規範您的交易量，那麼 8% 甚至可能是汽車業務佔您業務的 1/3。因此，當一切運作良好時，應該在營業額上增加 2.5% 左右。這是思考問題的正確方式嗎？

Yes, more -- yes, roughly. That's about right. I mean if you think about it, for this kind of demand, you just need to see a few percent increase in everything else in order to stay stable. So that's about right.

是的，更多——是的，大致如此。差不多就是這樣。我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，對於這種需求，你只需要看到其他一切增加幾個百分點就能保持穩定。基本就是這樣。

And a quick question EM margins. Should we look at second quarter margins as sort of the benchmark for the rest of the year? Or will these margins be rising?

還有一個關於 EM 利潤率的快速問題。我們是否應該將第二季的利潤率視為今年剩餘時間的基準？或者這些利潤率將會上升嗎？

Yes. I think based on what I had just said earlier about the impact we saw from supply shortages and logistics and things, I would expect Q3 to look pretty much like Q2 probably from a margin standpoint because we do see, especially the glass fiber issue continuing well through Q3, I would expect Q4 margins to look more like Q1 again.

是的。我認為，根據我剛才所說的供應短缺和物流等方面的影響，我預計第三季度與第二季度的情況非常相似，可能從利潤率的角度來看，因為我們確實看到，特別是玻璃纖維問題持續到第三季度，我預計第四季度的利潤率將再次與第一季更相似。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

In the past, I feel like you've been calling for a more normal EBIT in acetyl chain next year, which maybe implied something like the $700 million to $800 million number. But I think if I heard correctly in an answer to, I think, Duffy's question earlier, you seem to support something closer to $900 million to $1 billion. Do I have that wrong? Or is the more optimistic view just a function of the better demand backdrop that you've been kind of talking about?

過去，我覺得您一直在呼籲明年乙醯鏈的息稅前利潤更加正常，這可能意味著 7 億至 8 億美元的數字。但我想，如果我沒聽錯的話，在回答達菲之前的問題時，你似乎支持接近 9 億到 10 億美元的數字。我這樣說有錯嗎？或者，更樂觀的看法只是您所談論的更好的需求背景的結果？

No. Look, I think as we work through this year, and we've seen the impact of various debottlenecks and productivity products and continuing to optimize our model for acetyls, the addition of U.S. tax and other things. We really feel like we've lifted the foundational level of earnings from kind of that $700 million to $800 million to now $800 million to $900 million . And we're expecting some goodness to continue in acetyl margins into 2022 that put us at that kind of $900 million for acetyls.

不。看，我認為隨著我們今年的工作，我們已經看到了各種瓶頸和生產力產品的影響，並繼續優化我們的乙醯基模型，增加美國稅收和其他東西。我們確實感覺到基礎獲利水準已經從之前的7-8億美元提升到了現在的8-9億美元。我們預計乙醯基利潤率將在2022年繼續保持良好勢頭，最終達到9億美元。

Understood. And Similarly, I guess, if I remember correctly, I think the comment used to be that breaking up the company would result in something like $50 million of dissynergies, but that you had constantly been trying to work that number down. Is it still around that number? Do I have that number wrong? Or is it higher now or lower? Or is there any...

明白了。同樣，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為以前的評論是拆分公司會導致大約 5000 萬美元的不協同效應，但您一直在努力降低這個數字。還是在這個數字左右嗎？我的數字有錯嗎？還是現在更高還是更低？或有沒有...

I think $50 million is still a good number to use. I mean I don't -- I honestly don't see it really going a lot lower. I think we used to think it was even higher. I think $50 million is probably the right range to use for the level of dissynergies we would expect if we split the company.

我認為 5000 萬美元仍然是一個不錯的數字。我的意思是我不認為——老實說，我不認為它會真的下降很多。我認為我們過去認為它甚至更高。我認為，對於我們拆分公司時預期的不協同效應水準來說，5000 萬美元可能是合適的金額範圍。

Our next questions come from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Congrats on the quarter. Lori, in the release, it mentioned that you were able to bring back the Clear Lake facility during the quarter. I'm wondering how much you may have lost by not having it through the entire quarter.

恭喜本季取得佳績。洛里，新聞稿中提到，您能夠在本季恢復 Clear Lake 工廠。我想知道如果整個季度都沒有做到這一點，您可能會損失多少。

Yes. I don't have an exact number. I think if you look at the residual impacts of winter storm Uri, in quarter 2, we think it was probably about a $30 million impact and that's from higher raws, energy, inventories. I mean primarily all of that was in AC.

是的。我沒有確切的數字。我認為，如果你看看冬季風暴「烏裡」在第二季度的殘留影響，我們認為它的影響可能約為 3000 萬美元，這是由於原材料、能源和庫存增加造成的。我的意思是，主要所有這些都是在 AC 中。

Got you. And can you comment just in general on the overall industry operating rates in the acetyls chain that you're seeing right now?

明白了。您能否整體評價一下目前看到的乙醯基鏈中的整體產業營運率？

Yes. I mean, so if we look at Q2, I would say, we think in -- globally, utilization was up just over 90%, China just under 90%, but we also know that there was much higher intermittently and probably close to 100% at many times during the quarter. VAM globally also at 100% basically for the quarter.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們看一下第二季度，我想說，我們認為——全球範圍內，利用率上升了 90% 多一點，中國略低於 90%，但我們也知道，在本季度的許多時候，利用率間歇性地要高得多，可能接近 100%。本季全球 VAM 也基本達到 100%。

With this capacity coming on in China in August, as anticipated, we actually think utilization will remain at similar levels, again, because there is pent-up demand in the chain. There is a need to rebuild inventory. But I would say right now, we still think we're somewhere around that 90% range globally and probably should continue to be so during third quarter.

正如預期的那樣，隨著中國 8 月產能投入使用，我們實際上認為利用率將保持在相似的水平，因為供應鏈中存在被壓抑的需求。有必要重建庫存。但我現在想說，我們仍然認為我們在全球範圍內的覆蓋率在 90% 左右，並且可能在第三季度繼續保持這種水平。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自霍爾特的都鐸·皮克林 (Tudor Pickering) 的馬修·布萊爾 (Matthew Blair)。

Congrats on the results. The previous comments listed out 9 discrete organic growth projects. What is the big picture EBITDA number for all these projects in total?

恭喜取得成果。先前的評論列出了 9 個獨立的有機成長項目。所有這些項目的 EBITDA 總額是多少？

Yes. Matthew, I don't think we've called that out specifically for each project. We inherently included that in our Investor Day guide for 2023, and then we indicated there was additional uplift into '24 and '25. We will, as we update that outlook going forward, we'll provide a little more clarity on kind of how that materializes in those out years. But we haven't specifically given a number for all the projects.

是的。馬修，我認為我們並沒有針對每個項目具體地提到這一點。我們已將其納入 2023 年投資者日指南中，並指出 2024 年和 2025 年還會有進一步的提升。隨著我們更新未來展望，我們將更清楚地說明未來幾年如何實現這一目標。但我們並沒有具體給出所有項目的數字。

Our next questions come from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Just 2 quick ones. Given the supply chain lags and the stronger demand and low inventory levels, how resilient do you think the value chain -- the acetyl value chain will be if there is a direct hit in the Gulf Coast from hurricane this season compared to like, the normal hurricane impacts? And secondly, can you give us a sense for how the competitive intensity and process R&D in acetyls is evolving? Are the Chinese sort of doing the work? Are you seeing a competitive gap closing? Or do you see a widening now that BP shifted the business over to INEOS?

只需簡單兩句話。鑑於供應鏈滯後、需求強勁以及庫存水平較低，與正常颶風影響相比，如果本季颶風直接襲擊墨西哥灣沿岸，您認為價值鏈——乙醯價值鏈的恢復能力如何？其次，您能否向我們介紹一下乙醯基領域的競爭強度和製程研發是如何發展的？中國人在做這樣的工作嗎？您是否看到競爭差距正在縮小？或者，您是否認為，由於 BP 已將業務轉移給 INEOS，這一差距會擴大？

Yes. On your first one, on hurricanes, I mean, who can say, right? I mean where it hits, what it takes down in addition to acetic acid plants, does it take down consumers, it's hard to say. I would say, in a tight market, any disruption gets amplified with even higher prices and more panic buying and other things. So in a very tight market, a hurricane right now, even the threat of one probably would cause some upward movement in the market. But it's really hard to predict what the overall impact would be.

是的。關於你的第一個問題，關於颶風，我的意思是，誰能說得準呢，對吧？我的意思是，它會襲擊哪裡，除了醋酸工廠之外，還會對哪些地方造成影響，是否會影響消費者，這很難說。我想說，在緊張的市場中，任何混亂都會因價格上漲、恐慌性購買等行為而加劇。因此，在非常緊張的市場中，現在的颶風，即使是颶風的威脅也可能導致市場出現一些上漲趨勢。但很難預測其整體影響是什麼。

I think it's a competitive gap. I think, look, we continue to invest in R&D. I know our competitors do as well. I would say we think we continue to have advantaged technologies, in acetic acid, in VAM and emulsions. We don't really see that gap closing. We think everybody continues to move up, but we don't really see that gap closing at this point in time.

我認為這是一個競爭差距。我認為，我們會繼續投資研發。我知道我們的競爭對手也是一樣。我想說，我們認為我們在乙酸、VAM 和乳液方面繼續擁有優勢技術。我們確實沒有看到這一差距正在縮小。我們認為每個人都會繼續進步，但目前我們並沒有看到差距縮小。

Darryl, let's make the next question our last one, please.

達裡爾，請把下一個問題當作我們的最後一個問題。

Our final questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit more on that long-term outlook on the AC chain then. So do you think we've kind of entered a structurally higher area of earnings power? I know that you guys have changed your plans as far as your footprint optimization. But is there a scenario where you'd see continued global capacity additions? And would you participate in that?

只是想進一步了解 AC 鏈的長期前景。那麼，您是否認為我們已經進入了結構性更高的獲利能力領域？我知道你們已經改變了足跡優化計畫。但是否存在全球產能持續增加的情況？你會參加嗎？

It does appear that there are pockets of production shortages globally, as you mentioned, India and elsewhere. So I guess maybe if you could provide a little bit longer-term view on your capacity and maybe the industry's capacity as well.

正如您所說，全球確實存在一些生產短缺的情況，例如印度和其他地方。所以我想，也許您可以對您的產能以及行業的產能提供一些更長遠的看法。

Yes. So it's kind of a broad question, but let me try to break it down. So I discussed some of the things we did that we think improved our foundational earnings in terms of productivity and capacity debottlenecks, et cetera, and strengthening of our chain and strengthening of our model. I think it's also fair to say that we believe that the acetyl industry dynamics has improved over the long term.

是的。這是一個比較廣泛的問題，但讓我試著分解一下。因此，我討論了我們所做的一些事情，我們認為這些事情在生產力和產能瓶頸等方面提高了我們的基礎收益，並加強了我們的鏈條和模式。我認為也可以公平地說，我們相信乙醯基產業的動態從長遠來看已經得到改善。

So if you think about it just growing at kind of GDP, between '18 and '21, we saw nearly 1 million tons in demand growth for the industry. And during that time, we didn't add any new capacity. So it is a more tightly constrained market than it was, say, back in '18, the last time we had a price run up. We have a little bit of capacity coming on stream here in China that we talked about. And of course, we have a lot of capacity, our own capacity coming on, 1.3 million tons coming on in 2023. So those are the big capacity adds that are out there. But even if you add those together, it's kind of 3 or 4 years of growth in a very tight market. And again, we don't intend to run our capacity unless it makes sense to do so.

因此，如果你考慮它只是以 GDP 的形式成長，那麼在 2018 年至 2021 年期間，我們看到該產業的需求增加了近 100 萬噸。在此期間，我們沒有增加任何新產能。因此，與 18 年（上次價格上漲時）相比，現在的市場限制更加嚴格。正如我們之前提到的，我們在中國有少量產能投入生產。當然，我們擁有很大的產能，我們自己的產能正在增加，到 2023 年將增加 130 萬噸。這些都是現有的大容量附加產品。但即使將這些加在一起，在非常緊張的市場中，這也需要 3 到 4 年的成長時間。再說一次，除非有必要，否則我們不會充分利用我們的產能。

So I think the market dynamics have definitely improved over the last few years and continue to improve with just normal GDP growth. That could motivate people to get into the market. But I would say it's a very expensive market to get into. I mean you know our 1.3 million tons of capacity that we're adding at Clear Lake, we're spending $350 million to do so.

因此我認為市場動態在過去幾年肯定有所改善，並且會隨著正常的 GDP 成長而繼續改善。這可以激勵人們進入市場。但我想說，進入這個市場的成本非常高。我的意思是，你知道我們在 Clear Lake 增加的 130 萬噸產能，我們為此花了 3.5 億美元。

But if we look at greenfield build like they're doing in china, our own estimate of building that plant in China, because they don't have the infrastructure or everything else, is well in excess of $2 billion. That's a big hump for people to get over. You have to have availability of syngas. You have to have access to hydrogen. You have to have a good energy source. I mean it's a big hurdle for people to get over. It's a little better in the Gulf Coast of the U.S., but again, we already have a lot of players in the Gulf Coast.

但如果我們像他們在中國那樣看待綠地建設，我們自己估計，由於中國沒有基礎設施或其他一切，在中國建設該工廠的成本將遠遠超過 20 億美元。這對人們來說是一個難以克服的困難。你必須有合成氣。你必須能夠獲得氫氣。你必須擁有良好的能量來源。我的意思是這對人們來說是一個需要克服的巨大障礙。美國墨西哥灣沿岸的情況稍微好一些，但是我們在墨西哥灣沿岸已經有很多玩家了。

So we don't see any new capacity coming on immediately. Even if someone were to start today, they're still 4 or 5 years out from adding new capacity. So we see for the foreseeable future, this remaining a pretty robust type market.

因此，我們看不到任何新產能立即出現。即使有人今天開始，也需要四、五年的時間才能增加新產能。因此，我們認為在可預見的未來，這仍將是一個相當強勁的市場。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Brandon Ayache for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給 Brandon Ayache，請他做最後發言。

Thank you. We want to thank everybody for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any further questions you might have. Darryl, let's go ahead and please close out the call.

謝謝。我們要感謝大家今天的收聽。與往常一樣，通話結束後我們仍會為您解答任何其他問題。達裡爾，我們繼續，請結束通話。

Thank you for your participation today. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.

感謝您今天的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。