塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Celanese Q4 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯 2023 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brandon Ayache, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Brandon.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Brandon Ayache。請繼續，布蘭登。

Thanks, Kevin. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon Ayache, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today on the call are Lori Ryerkerk, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Richardson, Chief Operating Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，凱文。歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Brandon Ayache，投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長 Lori Ryerkerk；理查森 (Scott Richardson)，營運長；以及財務長 Chuck Kyrish。

Celanese distributed its fourth quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website. Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

塞拉尼斯昨天下午透過 Business Wire 發布了其第四季度收益報告，並在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了準備好的評論。提醒一下，今天我們將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到這些指標的定義以及與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。今天的演示還將包括前瞻性陳述。請查看有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，可在新聞稿和準備好的評論的末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 8-K 表格報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

With that, Kevin, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

凱文，現在讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question today is coming from Josh Spector from UBS.

（操作員指令）。我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I was wondering if you could talk about your expectations for the M&M business in 2024 and kind of both near term and longer term. So in the first quarter, you seemed to call out some improvement. I'm not really sure if that's an assumption of market improvement or a price cost improvement of earnings. So wanted to clarify that. And then second, kind of how do you layer on the cost savings versus market and everything else where you expect to exit the year?

我想知道您是否可以談談您對 2024 年 M&M 業務的短期和長期期望。因此，在第一季度，你似乎看到了一些進步。我不太確定這是市場改善的假設還是價格成本效益改善的假設。所以想澄清這一點。第二，您如何在成本節約與市場以及您預計在今年年底時考慮的其他因素之間做出權衡？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. If we look at first quarter, we do expect a really meaningful lift in M&M earnings in the first quarter, and in fact, expect first quarter to be our highest quarterly EBITDA since the acquisition. I think that's a number of things. The biggest factor is really starting to see the pull through of lower raw materials and lower fixed costs that we were generating this year, but needed to move the volume through, plus the higher cost material through inventory. So I'd say that's over half of the improvement we expect to see in the first quarter.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬希。如果我們看第一季度，我們確實預計第一季 M&M 收益將有一個真正有意義的提升，事實上，預計第一季將是我們自收購以來最高的季度 EBITDA。我認為有很多事情。最大的因素是，我們今年開始看到原物料價格和固定成本下降的拉動，但需要增加產量，再加上庫存中成本較高的材料。所以我想說，這超過了我們預計第一季改善的一半。

We do expect recovery in auto versus the seasonal destocking that we experienced in the fourth quarter, which was an issue for M&M. And then we start to see some of the initial fixed cost improvements from the footprint optimizations that we initiated last year and announced. Although I would expect those to become more meaningful in the second half of the year and actually into next year as well.

我們確實預期汽車產業將會復甦，而第四季我們經歷的季節性去庫存化對 M&M 來說是一個問題。然後，我們開始看到去年啟動並宣布的足跡優化所帶來的一些初步固定成本改進。但我希望這些在下半年甚至明年都會變得更有意義。

And so I'd say, we do see -- evidence for that is we are seeing variable margin improving in January as we start to see that inventory pull through of lower raws and fixed costs. So we feel pretty confident in that. And for some key areas like Zytel, we saw that really bottom out in the fourth quarter, and we're starting to see the recovery there. So I'd say we feel good about the first quarter and the meaningful uplift that we'll have in M&M next year as well.

所以我想說，我們確實看到了——有證據顯示，我們看到 1 月變動利潤率有所改善，因為我們開始看到庫存拉動原材料和固定成本的降低。所以我們對此非常有信心。對於 Zytel 等一些關鍵領域，我們看到其在第四季度確實觸底，並且開始看到復甦。因此我想說，我們對第一季的業績感到很滿意，並且相信明年 M&M 業務也將實現有意義的成長。

Fundamentally, I would say we continue to see M&M as a really great business. All the reasons that we bought it are still there. We have just been a very difficult backdrop that has made it hard to get the full value of the synergies as well as some of the volume recovery and growth that we had counted on. I think if you looked at it today in what would be a more normal demand backdrop, we would find that M&M would be accretive.

從根本上來說，我會說我們仍然認為 M&M 是一家非常偉大的企業。我們購買它的所有理由仍然存在。我們剛剛經歷了非常困難的背景，這使得我們很難充分發揮協同效應的價值以及我們所期望的部分銷售恢復和成長。我認為，如果您今天以更正常的需求背景來看待它，我們會發現 M&M 會具有增值性。

Next question is coming from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Yes. Lori, I think you completed an SAP implementation just a few weeks ago. Can you comment on how that's going so far, kind of level of integration across the company? And remind us of what the benefits might be as your TSAs roll off?

是的。 Lori，我想你幾週前剛完成了 SAP 實施。您能否評論一下目前的進展以及整個公司的整合程度？請提醒我們一下，當您的 TSA 取消時可能帶來哪些好處？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Kevin. So we did do our SAP integration. The last version of that went live February 1. Maybe I should actually start out by thanking the over 1,600 people in the organization who have worked on the SAP integration, not full time, obviously, but had some role in it. And really, we often think about SAP integration as an IT effort, but it's really a full business effort, including the finance, customer service, commercial businesses. It goes across everybody. And our folks have worked very hard to make this a success in only 15 months after we did the integration, which I think is fast by any standard.

是的。謝謝你的提問，凱文。所以我們確實進行了 SAP 整合。最新版本已於 2 月 1 日上線。實際上，我們經常將 SAP 整合視為一項 IT 工作，但它實際上是一項完整的業務工作，包括財務、客戶服務和商業業務。它影響到每一個人。我們的員工非常努力，在整合後僅用 15 個月就取得了成功，我認為無論以什麼標準來衡量，這都算是很快的。

And that is after they had already integrated the heritage Celanese businesses earlier last year onto the same SAP S/4 platform. So really excited to get this done. I would say this is probably the last major step in our integration. And will really help us -- now as we keep layering on the various processes to the platform, will really help us achieve the next level of synergy including getting rid of the TSA from DuPont, but also the synergies of people being able to work together on one platform, being able to have better access to the data, et cetera.

在此之前，他們已於去年年初將塞拉尼斯原有業務整合到同一個 SAP S/4 平台上。我真的很高興能完成這件事。我想說這可能是我們整合的最後一步重要步驟。這將真正幫助我們——現在，隨著我們不斷地將各種流程分層到平台上，這將真正幫助我們實現更高層次的協同效應，包括擺脫杜邦的 TSA，同時也讓人們能夠在一個平台上協同工作，能夠更好地訪問數據，等等。

I'd say, the integration went very smoothly. So supply chain, production are all, on the new platform, running well. We're able to take an order, we're able to produce and ship an order, and we're able to get paid for an order. So that was the first order of business. And now we're gearing up for our first month-end close on the new platform. But again, I think it's been remarkably smooth. Great kudos to the extended team that made that happen. And I'd say, so far on the integration, we've seen no surprises.

我想說，整合進行得非常順利。因此供應鏈、生產都在新平台上運作良好。我們可以接受訂單，可以生產和運送訂單，也可以收到訂單付款。所以這是第一項工作。現在我們正為新平台上第一個月末結帳做準備。但我再次認為，一切進展非常順利。對實現這一目標的擴展團隊致以崇高的敬意。我想說，到目前為止，在整合方面我們還沒有看到任何意外。

And then secondly, if I may, can you comment on your input cost outlook for 2024? And if those costs trended flat from here, what sort of benefit or tailwind might we expect for this year?

其次，如果可以的話，您能否對 2024 年的投入成本前景發表評論？如果這些成本從現在起趨於平穩，那麼今年我們能期待什麼樣的好處或順風呢？

So I would say, I mean, if you're talking about raw material cost, I mean, certainly, raws have come down versus where we were a year ago. And who knows what will happen, but we also know that we are now pulling through the lower cost of raw and lower fixed costs that we built on. I would say year '24 is very much a year of being able to deliver on the actions that were taken in '23. And so I think that is built in, obviously, to our outlook for the year.

所以我想說，如果你談論原材料成本，那麼原材料成本與一年前相比肯定有所下降。誰知道會發生什麼，但我們也知道，我們現在正在努力降低原材料成本和降低我們建立的固定成本。我想說，2024 年是能夠履行 2023 年所採取的行動的一年。所以我認為這顯然已經融入了我們對今年的展望中。

I think the important thing that we're focused on, and we've talked about all year, is we want to continue to control what's controllable. At Celanese, we're really good at execution. I think you see that with what we've done so far. All of the projects we were able to take on at the same time. And so really as we move into '24, we see the benefits of that execution in '23, as well as all the steps we have in '24.

我認為，我們關注的重要事情，也是我們整年都在談論的事情，就是我們希望繼續控制可控的事情。在塞拉尼斯，我們的執行力非常強。我想您從我們迄今所做的事情中已經看到了這一點。我們能夠同時承擔所有項目。因此，當我們進入24年時，我們看到了23年的執行所帶來的好處，以及我們在24年採取的所有措施的好處。

Our next question today is coming from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

You said that the synergies in the M&M business would be $150 million. Does that mean that the adjusted EBIT growth in M&M should be at least $150 million in 2024 year-over-year?

您說過 M&M 業務的綜效將達到 1.5 億美元。這是否意味著 2024 年 M&M 的調整後息稅前利潤年增應至少達到 1.5 億美元？

Thanks, Jeff. No, because a number of factors there. So the synergies we're expecting for this year is $150 million. Only about 40% of those actually show up in M&M. The vast majority of them do show up in the EM profile, but some of them also show up in BU other and other areas.

謝謝，傑夫。不是，因為有很多因素。因此，我們預計今年的綜效將是 1.5 億美元。其中只有約 40% 真正出現在 M&M 中。它們中的絕大多數確實出現在 EM 設定檔中，但其中一些也出現在 BU 其他和其他區域中。

Maybe to reframe it a different way. Do you expect the M&M business to grow its EBIT exclusive of the synergies?

也許可以用不同的方式來重新建構它。您是否預期 M&M 業務的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 即使在排除綜效後也會成長？

Yes. So yes, thank you. I probably misunderstood your first question. We do expect growth across both our heritage EM businesses and a significant uplift in M&M businesses even exclusive of synergies for the year. I mean, if you think about our outlook for the year of $11 to $12, and think about, we've called out $100,000 -- sorry, $100 million more in acetyls, the remainder of the uplift from the $9 we were at this year really comes from that integrated EM business.

是的。是的，謝謝。我可能誤解了你的第一個問題。我們確實預計，即使不考慮今年的協同效應，我們的傳統 EM 業務也將實現成長，而 M&M 業務也將顯著提升。我的意思是，如果你想想我們對今年 11 到 12 美元的預期，想想看，我們已經預計乙醯​​基的價格將上漲 10 萬美元——抱歉，是 1 億美元，而今年 9 美元的剩餘漲幅實際上來自於綜合 EM 業務。

Your next question today is coming from Mike Sison from Wells Fargo.

今天的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森。

Just wondering if you could help bridge us from 1Q to the remaining quarters. I know there seems to be a lot more headwinds in Q1. More synergies and everything, all the positives are coming in 2Q and 3Q. So when you think about going from $2 to a lot higher in the remaining 3 quarters, how does that sort of happen? And then are the last 3 quarters basically equal in EPS is kind of the way to look at it?

只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們從第一季過渡到剩餘的季度。我知道第一季似乎面臨更多阻力。更多的協同效應和一切，所有的正面因素都將在第二季和第三季出現。那麼，當您考慮在剩下的 3 個季度中從 2 美元漲至更高價格時，這種情況會如何發生？那麼，我們可以這樣來看過去 3 個季度的每股盈餘是否基本上相等？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Mike. The way I look at it is, if we look at what we're expecting to achieve in Q1, if you do the math, it says we need [$3 to $3.40] each of the remaining quarters. I would expect that to ramp up more in the second half, but I would still expect a pretty good ramp in the second quarter as well. So think about it this way, you don't have the turnarounds in Q2 that you had in Q1. So that's a $50 million lift.

是的。謝謝你的提問，麥克。我的看法是，如果我們看一下我們預計在第一季實現的目標，請算一下就會發現，我們剩下的每個季度都需要 [3 美元到 3.40 美元]。我預計下半年這一數字會進一步上升，但我仍然預計第二季也會有相當好的成長。所以這樣想想，你在第二季不會再出現第一季那樣的扭轉局面。所以這是一個 5000 萬美元的增幅。

And then in EM, the vast majority of the additional lift in that quarter comes from EM, and it's really synergies and flow-through of lower cost inventory. It's returning to, we have some seasonality in medical, it's always low in the first quarter, that should come back in the second quarter. And then in AC, you start to see the benefits of the project as we move through the second quarter. So I would say, we do expect a significant uplift in Q2, but even more uplift in Q3 and Q4. I would expect Q3 to be the highest quarter because we would expect some seasonality again in Q4.

然後在新興市場，該季度的絕大部分額外成長來自於新興市場，這實際上是協同效應和低成本庫存的流通。它正在回歸，醫療行業有一些季節性，第一季總是很低，但第二季度應該會回升。然後在 AC，隨著我們進入第二季度，您會開始看到該專案的好處。因此我想說，我們確實預計第二季會有顯著的成長，但第三季和第四季會有更大的成長。我預計第三季將是銷售額最高的季度，因為我們預計第四季會再次出現一些季節性因素。

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up. Several companies have prepared assets from acquisitions over the last couple of years. Now I know M&M has underperformed, but are there any parts of M&M close to that in terms of impairment levels? And if so, what are the areas?

知道了。然後進行快速跟進。過去幾年中，有多家公司透過收購準備了資產。現在我知道 M&M 的表現不佳，但從損害程度來看，M&M 中是否有任何部分的表現接近於此？如果有，那麼是哪些區域？

Yes, Mike. We'll look at that when that time comes. We've taken a look at that at the EM level and have not seen markers on that, that would cause us at this point in time to think that's a possibility.

是的，麥克。到時候我們再考慮。我們已經在 EM 層級對此進行了研究，但尚未看到相關標記，因此我們目前認為這是一種可能性。

Next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Lori, just on a high-level basis, what sort of global macroeconomic backdrop are you embedding as it relates to your guidance? Obviously, interest rates are still high. ISM (inaudible) globally; China, who knows. It still sounds like there's pockets of destocking, et cetera, on the durable goods side. How do you sort of factor all that in as it relates to the evolution in 2024?

洛瑞，從高層次來看，您在製定指導時考慮了什麼樣的全球宏觀經濟背景？顯然，利率仍然很高。 ISM（聽不清楚）全球；中國，誰知道呢。聽起來耐用品方面仍存在一些去庫存等等的情況。您如何將所有這些因素考慮進 2024 年的發展中？

Yes. Look, I would say, at this stage, we are really focused on what we can control. So what we've assumed in our $11 to $12 guide is we see the kind of the diminishing of destocking. So we are assuming that we are getting to the destocking. We are not though assuming a really big uptick in demand or restocking. So I would say, we're still assuming kind of below normal demand patterns, but without the absence of destocking. So that is kind of the one upside that we're assuming that's maybe a few percent at the most. And otherwise, it's really -- our outlook is really focused on what we can control.

是的。我想說，在現階段，我們真正專注的是我們能夠控制的事情。因此，我們在 11 美元到 12 美元的指導價中假設，我們看到了去庫存的減少。因此我們假設我們正在進行去庫存化。不過，我們並不認為需求或補貨會大幅成長。因此我想說，我們仍然假設需求模式低於正常水平，但沒有去庫存的情況。因此，我們假設這是一種好處，最多只有百分之幾。否則，我們的觀點實際上主要集中在我們能夠控制的事情。

I would say if we look at the market, I mean, good news is, I think, as we're starting '24, although I'd like to say we're back in normal demand patterns, we're not. But look, we are starting to see some easing of some of the demand and competitive challenges we had. We called out we're seeing less movement in materials out of Asia into Europe. So that indicates to us that local demand is improving in China. And we see that.

我想說，如果我們看一下市場，我的意思是，好消息是，我認為，隨著我們開始24年，雖然我想說我們已經恢復到正常的需求模式，但事實並非如此。但是，我們開始看到一些需求和競爭挑戰有所緩解。我們指出，從亞洲到歐洲的材料運輸量正在減少。這顯示中國本地需求正在改善。我們看到了這一點。

I would say, in China, generally, we feel like demand for China consumption is approaching normal order patterns and normal levels. But the exports of goods out of China is still depressed, especially into Europe. So there's still some downside on demand there. I think in the Americas, we're seeing demand come back gradually. We saw some improvement in Industrial in the fourth quarter, but then we saw the reduction in auto, which was seasonal destocking. I expect that to come back in the first quarter. But again, not anticipating a huge uptick in demand there for consumer goods and electronics.

我想說，在中國，總體而言，我們感覺中國消費的需求正在接近正常訂單模式和正常水平。但中國商品出口依然低迷，尤其是出口到歐洲。因此，那裡的需求仍存在一些下滑趨勢。我認為在美洲，我們看到需求逐漸回升。我們看到第四季工業有所改善，但隨後汽車庫存減少，這是季節性去庫存。我預計這一數字將在第一季恢復。但同樣，沒有預料到那裡對消費品和電子產品的需求會大幅增長。

In Europe, I'd say, similar to the U.S., but probably even a longer time frame before we could return to demand. I mean, the other thing I would add though is, look, we are seeing some improvement in construction kind of normalizing. So that's good, and that's supported by a slight movement upward in terms of VAM pricing as well.

我想說，歐洲的情況與美國類似，但可能還需要更長的時間才能恢復需求。我的意思是，我想補充的另一件事是，你看，我們看到建築業在規範化方面取得了一些進展。這是好事，而且 VAM 定價也略有上調，這也為其提供了支持。

Okay. Super helpful. And then for the second question, the outages in 2024 that seem front-end loaded, but were those both just sort of pull forward just given weaker demand? Or was that sort of in line with the original plan?

好的。超有幫助。然後對於第二個問題，2024 年的停電似乎是前端負載，但這是否只是因為需求較弱而提前發生？還是這是否符合原計劃？

No, I'd say it's very much in line with the original plan. In fact, a little bit we've pushed back a little out of '23 into '24 with the delay in the project at Clear Lake. But I would say, these are planned turnarounds. These are turnarounds that occur on an every 3 years in the case of palm, 4 years in case of methanol. And so very much as planned. And I would also say they've gone very well. We've gotten through all the major discovery work and no surprises. So feel like we're on track to meet our plans around those turnarounds.

不，我認為這非常符合原計劃。事實上，由於 Clear Lake 計畫的推遲，我們將計畫從 23 年推遲到了 24 年。但我想說，這些都是有計畫的轉變。對於棕櫚油，每 3 年進行一次週轉，對於甲醇，每 4 年進行一次週轉。一切正如計劃的那樣。我想說，他們的表現非常出色。我們已經完成了所有主要的發現工作並且沒有任何意外。所以感覺我們正在按計劃實現這些轉變。

Your next question is coming from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

This is Ryan on for Aleksey. The first question, I wanted to dig into a little bit on nylon pricing. I believe at least one peer of yours is out in the market announcing some pricing. Are you seeing any momentum in the market here? And can you just talk about what your expectations might be for the balance of the year?

這是 Ryan 代替 Aleksey 上場。第一個問題，我想深入探討尼龍定價問題。我相信你們中至少有一位同行已經在市場上宣布了一些定價。您是否看到這裡的市場有任何發展勢頭？您能談談對今年剩餘時間的期望嗎？

Yes. Look, nylon pricing just varies a lot depending by region or by end use. But I would say, in general, we feel like we hit kind of the bottom in terms of variable margins. So it's not just pricing that's important, but it's raws as well. So raws have come down. But I'd say, in general, we feel like we're coming off the bottom. But let me hand it over to Scott, because I think he can give a bit more color here.

是的。你看，尼龍的定價根據地區或最終用途的不同而有很大差異。但我想說，總體而言，我們感覺在可變利潤率方面已經觸底。因此，重要的不僅是定價，原料也同樣重要。因此原料已經下降。但我想說，整體而言，我們感覺自己正在走出谷底。但讓我把它交給斯科特，因為我認為他可以在這裡提供更多的細節。

No. I think Lori hit it, Ryan. We are seeing a lot of stability, which is a really good thing. And as Lori mentioned, we're starting to see the flow-through of variable costs. So margins are expanding in the nylon business, and we continue to work, as we said in previous quarters, to get back some of that share that had been lost prior to us closing the transaction. So we feel good about the trajectory as we work our way through this year of the nylon business.

不，我認為洛瑞擊中了它，瑞安。我們看到了很多穩定，這是一件非常好的事情。正如 Lori 所提到的，我們開始看到變動成本的流動。因此，尼龍業務的利潤率正在擴大，正如我們在前幾個季度所說的那樣，我們將繼續努力收回在交易完成之前失去的部分份額。因此，我們對今年尼龍業務的發展軌跡感到滿意。

Great. That's very helpful. And then if I could just dig a little bit into the $150 million synergy target in your bridge for '24. If there's no demand improvement, demand kind of trends sideways from here, do you still feel you're confident in being able to deliver on that target?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後，我可以稍微深入探討你在 24 年大橋上設定的 1.5 億美元綜效目標嗎？如果需求沒有改善，或從現在開始需求趨勢出現下滑，您是否仍覺得有信心能夠實現這一目標？

Yes. So I feel really confident in our ability to deliver on that $150 million. I think if you look at it, it really is in 3 buckets. The first really being the footprint optimization steps that we've taken at the end of this year would start to show up in the bottom line next year. So that's probably about $50 million in the year. We have the transition to the single SAP platform, which is happening now, which gets us out of the TSA and we get other synergies from. And then we have cross-sell opportunities which have been identified this year, closed one this year, which will start to come online next year, and we'll start to see the revenue return from. So I feel very confident about that $150 million of synergies for 2024.

是的。所以我對我們實現這 1.5 億美元的能力充滿信心。我認為如果你看一下，它確實可以分為三類。我們在今年年底採取的第一個真正的足跡優化措施將在明年開始體現在底線中。所以這一年的收入大概是 5,000 萬美元。現在我們正在向單一 SAP 平台過渡，這使我們擺脫了 TSA，並從中獲得了其他協同效應。然後，我們今年發現了交叉銷售機會，並已完成一個，這個機會將於明年開始上線，我們將開始看到收入回報。因此，我對 2024 年 1.5 億美元的綜效非常有信心。

Next question is coming from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

If I could just follow up, did you guys disclose what your M&M synergies were realized for 2023? Apologies if I missed that.

如果我可以跟進的話，你們是否透露了 2023 年實現的 M&M 綜效？如果我錯過了，請見諒。

I'm not sure if we disclosed it or not, but we achieved $100 million in synergies in 2023, a little bit lower than we had anticipated earlier in the year, but still above what we had thought at the beginning of the year. And really, the reason for that was volume related, just not seen the volume recovery, and some of the volume-related synergies not pulling through. But again, those synergies are there. They will just pull through at a later time as volumes recover.

我不確定我們是否披露過，但我們在 2023 年實現了 1 億美元的協同效應，比我們今年早些時候的預期略低，但仍高於我們年初的預期。而實際上，造成這種情況的原因與數量有關，只是沒有看到數量恢復，並且一些與數量相關的協同效應沒有發揮作用。但同樣，這些協同作用是存在的。隨著交易量的恢復，它們將稍後渡過難關。

Got you. Understood. Understood. And if I could, a question on the Acetyl Chain. I know, back in the '21 Investor Day, back when you had Acetate Tow split out, the expectation was that it was going to be relatively flat to '21, and during 2023 at $245 million of EBIT. I suspect it might have been higher than that. Can you give us an idea as to how well that part of the business is performing and what your outlook is?

明白了。明白了。明白了。如果可以的話，我想問一個關於乙醯鏈的問題。我知道，早在 21 年投資者日，當你將醋酸絲束分拆出來時，預計到 21 年它將相對持平，並且在 2023 年的息稅前利潤將達到 2.45 億美元。我懷疑它可能比這個還要高。您能否告訴我們該部分業務的運作情況如何以及您的前景如何？

Yes. Look, Acetate Tow has had a really good year this year as a result of the work we did last year to really reset how we contracted and how we managed that business. As you'll recall, we pulled it in to be part of the Acetyl Chain to give us more flexibility and more optionality, much like we do for the rest of our projects.

是的。你看，Acetate Tow 今年的表現非常好，這要歸功於我們去年所做的工作，即真正重新設定我們的合約方式和業務管理方式。您會記得，我們​​將其作為乙醯鏈的一部分，以便為我們提供更多靈活性和可選性，就像我們對其他項目所做的那樣。

So I would say, we called out our target was to get to the $245 million at Investor Day. I would say we have meaningfully exceeded that target for the year. But again, I think the important thing here is we are just running as part of the chain. And that way, we stabilize the earnings of the entire Acetyl Chain, much like we do with, say, redispersible powders and other downstream derivatives. It simply gives us another outlet to pull acetic acid through the chain to make sure we can maximize value from the chain and, again, stabilize them.

所以我想說，我們的目標是在投資者日達到 2.45 億美元。我想說，我們已經大大超越了今年的目標。但我再次認為，這裡重要的是我們只是作為鏈條的一部分在運作。這樣，我們就能穩定整個乙醯基鏈的效益，就像我們對可再分散粉末和其他下游衍生物所做的那樣。它只是為我們提供了另一個出口，將乙酸拉過鏈條，以確保我們可以最大限度地利用鏈條的價值，並再次穩定它們。

Your next question is coming from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent. I was wondering if you could provide your updated view on auto builds for 2024, and the impact of slowing EV sales on product mix in EM and M&M. Also, how exposed to China autos is the combined EM and M&M business?

特納辛里奇斯 (Turner Hinrichs) 代替文森特 (Vincent)。我想知道您是否可以提供對 2024 年汽車製造的最新看法，以及電動車銷售放緩對 EM 和 M&M 產品組合的影響。此外，合併後的 EM 和 M&M 業務對中國汽車市場的曝險有多大？

Yes. Thanks, Turner. First, let me start with auto builds. I think the industry, most publications are projecting somewhere more or less flattish build. Our business tends to grow about 150 to 200 basis points above build. So that's what we're baking into our current plan. When it comes to the mix of EVs, we're largely, across our EM portfolio, pretty agnostic to whether it's an EV, an ICE vehicle or -- honestly, hybrids are the best. And we have about 20% more accessible content on a hybrid vehicle. So starting, particularly here in the U.S., to see more shifts to hybrid that tends to be a good thing for us overall. So really no impact if we see the mix impact here in the U.S. change away from EVs and move back to ICE or to hybrids.

是的。謝謝，特納。首先，讓我從自動建置開始。我認為，業界和大多數出版物都預測會出現或多或少平緩的建設。我們的業務往往比預期成長 150 到 200 個基點。這就是我們目前計劃中的內容。當涉及電動車的組合時，在我們的整個新興市場產品組合中，我們基本上不確定它是電動車、內燃機汽車還是——老實說，混合動力車是最好的。我們在混合動力汽車上可訪問的內容增加了約 20%。因此，特別是在美國，開始看到更多向混合動力的轉變，這對我們來說總體來說是一件好事。因此，如果我們看到美國的混合影響從電動車轉向內燃機汽車或混合動力汽車，那麼實際上不會產生影響。

And from a China perspective, overall, if you kind of start at the corporate level, it's about 1/4 of our overall sales. You bring that down into EM, pretty similar. And our overall exposure is kind of around that range as well in terms of automotive in China.

從中國的角度來看，總體而言，如果從公司層級開始，這約占我們總銷售額的 1/4。你把它帶入 EM，非常相似。就中國汽車市場而言，我們的整體投資也大致在這個範圍內。

Of the lower raw materials cost in nylon, how significant is this expected to be in 2024? And what's the confidence that these will not get passed through to price?

尼龍原料成本下降，預計到 2024 年會有多大影響？那麼，有什麼信心保證這些不會轉嫁到價格上呢？

I think, as Lori mentioned, we have a bucket of the lower variable and fixed cost that we think is going to flow through the earnings. That could be the largest year-over-year benefit for us. A good chunk of that is in the nylon part of the M&M portfolio. So it has the ability to be a pretty significant driver of uplift year-over-year. A lot will depend upon what happens with raw materials as well as pricing in the second half of the year. We feel good about where things are in the first half of the year given the amount of inventory that we have in the order book as we see it. Pricing, as we said earlier, has kind of bottomed out in nylon. So we don't expect to see a lot of pricing impact downward from where it is today. So we feel very confident that the margins we're seeing right now here at least in the first half are here to stay.

我認為，正如 Lori 所提到的，我們有一個較低的變動成本和固定成本桶，我們認為這些成本將流入收益。這可能是我們最大的年比收益。其中很大一部分來自 M&M 產品組合中的尼龍部分。因此，它有能力成為逐年成長的重要推動力。很大程度取決於下半年原料和價格的走勢。從我們訂單中的庫存量來看，我們對上半年的情況感到很滿意。正如我們之前所說，尼龍的價格已經觸底。因此，我們預期價格影響不會比目前大幅下降。因此，我們非常有信心，至少在上半年，我們現在看到的利潤率將保持下去。

Next question is coming from Arun Viswanathan from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Our next question is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Lori, can you talk to the foundational level of earnings in acetyls post the Clear Lake expansion coming on stream and given the step-up in acetate to earnings we've seen this year?

Lori，您能否談談 Clear Lake 擴建項目投產後乙醯基收益水平，以及今年醋酸鹽收益的上升？

Yes, it's pretty simple. I mean, we said foundational level of earnings is $1.3 billion today. I think we've proved that in 2023 in what were pretty sub-foundational markets for most of the year. And next year, we expect -- or this year, I should say, we expect that to increase by $100 million, which is really what we expect to get in productivity from the combination of Panther and our CCU project, Panther being the Clear Lake acetic acid expansion.

是的，非常簡單。我的意思是，我們說今天的基礎獲利水準是 13 億美元。我認為我們已經在 2023 年證明了這一點，因為在這一年的大部分時間裡，市場都處於相當次基礎的狀態。而明年，我們預計——或者應該說是今年，我們預計這一數字將增加 1 億美元，這實際上正是我們預計從 Panther 和我們的 CCU 項目相結合中獲得的生產力，Panther 是 Clear Lake 乙酸擴建項目。

Have you assumed some -- a normalized level of acetyls demand? What could our earnings power be?

您是否假設了一些乙醯基需求的標準化水準？我們的獲利能力到底有多強？

Well, I mean, look, we've had years where we were over $2 billion in acetyls. So I mean, when we have fly-ups and those sorts of things because of supply outages or sudden demand increases that can be very high. But again, right now, we're focused on what we can control. And so I would focus on that one point for level of foundational earnings.

嗯，我的意思是，你看，有幾年我們的乙醯基銷售額超過 20 億美元。所以我的意思是，當我們因為供應中斷或需求突然增加而出現飛行和諸如此類的事情時，這個數字可能會非常高。但現在我們再說一遍，我們專注的是我們可以控制的事情。因此，我將重點放在基礎收入水平這一點。

And one more thing. Just on the tax rate, is 9% a good rate going beyond 2024?

還有一件事。僅就稅率而言，2024 年後 9% 是一個好的稅率嗎？

Hey, David, this is Chuck. For 2024, we do expect a really similar rate to '23. I'd use 9% for now for that, and we will update you if that changes. Going forward, we feel like we're in a good position. It will depend on the jurisdictional mix of our earnings. And we'll update that each year, but we feel like we're in a pretty good position where we are right now.

嘿，大衛，我是查克。對於 2024 年，我們確實預期其成長率與 2023 年非常相似。我現在將使用 9%，如果有變化，我們將及時通知您。展望未來，我們感覺我們處於有利地位。這將取決於我們的收入所屬的司法管轄區組合。我們每年都會更新這一點，但我們覺得我們目前的狀況相當不錯。

Our next question is coming from Arun Viswanathan from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. Apologies for earlier. I guess, first off, just on the deleveraging trajectory. I know that the target obviously is to get to 3 turns as rapidly as possible. Maybe you can just walk us through the opportunity on free cash flow and how you expect to get to that returns? Is there any more opportunity to harvest a little bit more free cash flow to working capital, or -- yes, maybe we can start with that.

偉大的。我為之前的事道歉。我想，首先，只是關於去槓桿軌跡。我知道目標顯然是盡快達到 3 圈。也許您可以向我們介紹自由現金流的機會以及您期望如何獲得回報？是否還有機會獲得更多一點的自由現金流來轉化為營運資金，或者——是的，也許我們可以從此開始。

Yes. Let me ask Chuck to cover the details. But what I would say is, this year, like we were last year, we are very focused on generation of free cash flow and deleveraging. We're very committed to maintaining that investment grade. And so we are anxious to delever to that 3x level, so that we will have flexibility in our use of capital going forward and be able to move on with other opportunities in the company. But Chuck, let me let you walk through the bucket.

是的。讓我請查克講解一下細節。但我想說的是，今年和去年一樣，我們非常注重創造自由現金流和去槓桿。我們致力於維持此投資等級。因此，我們急於將槓桿率降低至 3 倍水平，這樣我們在未來使用資本時就能更加靈活，並能夠繼續抓住公司內的其他機會。但是查克，讓我讓你從桶子裡穿過去。

Yes. Thanks, Lori. Thanks, Arun. Yes, first, I want to just thank the global teams that we have that drove the record free cash results in '23. That's a lot of work by a lot of smart people. So I just want to salute that for your efforts. You know who you are out there.

是的。謝謝，洛瑞。謝謝，阿倫。是的，首先，我要感謝我們的全球團隊，他們在 23 年創造了創紀錄的免費現金表現。這是許多聰明人所做的大量工作。所以我只想對你的努力表示敬意。你知道你是誰。

For '24, let me give you a few key drivers that we're seeing for free cash flow right now. If we start with earnings, if you take our EPS guide, that would translate into about $300 million of incremental net income, give or take. On working capital, our target for '24 is $100 million to $150 million benefit for the year. This compares with a little over $500 million cash benefit for the year in '23. So not as much working capital benefit year-over-year, but we're still striving for working capital benefit within the year.

對於'24年，讓我給你一些我們現在看到的自由現金流的關鍵驅動因素。如果我們從收益開始，如果你採用我們的每股盈餘指南，這將轉化為大約 3 億美元的增量淨收入，或多或少。在營運資金方面，我們2024年的目標是實現當年1億至1.5億美元的收益。相較之下，23年的現金收益略高於5億美元。因此，與去年同期相比，營運資本利得沒有那麼多，但我們仍在努力實現年內營運資本利得。

And this driver could change depending on how demand shapes up across '24, of course, and kind of how earnings and synergies ramp. And we do know that CapEx should be lower year-over-year by $100 million to $150 million as we cycle out of a lot of large projects. Those are the key drivers. There are some other puts and takes in that, that we need to refine as the year goes on, like cash tax and cost to achieve synergies. But I would focus on those key drivers right now in '24. And as you know, we are really focused on converting our earnings into cash flow, deleveraging the balance sheet. We think we're going to finish this year much closer to our 3x target, and we expect to finish to our 3x target in 2025.

當然，這個驅動因素可能會根據24年需求的變化以及收益和綜效的成長而改變。我們確實知道，隨著我們完成許多大型項目，資本支出應該比去年同期下降 1 億至 1.5 億美元。這些是關鍵驅動因素。其中還有一些其他的利弊，我們需要隨著時間的推移不斷改進，例如現金稅和實現綜效的成本。但現在我會專注在 24 年的這些關鍵驅動因素。如你所知，我們真正注重的是將收益轉化為現金流，降低資產負債表的槓桿率。我們認為，今年我們將更接近我們的 3 倍目標，並且我們預計在 2025 年實現我們的 3 倍目標。

Great. And then I just have 1 quick follow-up. Just thinking about the portfolio as it stands now, obviously, you've gone through some changes within the food ingredients and integrating M&M. Is there anything else on the horizon that we should be thinking about as far as portfolio management or potential divestitures or anything along those lines?

偉大的。然後我只需快速跟進 1 件事。只要考慮現在的產品組合，顯然你們已經在食品成分和整合 M&M 方面經歷了一些變化。就投資組合管理或潛在資產剝離或類似的事情而言，我們還應該考慮其他事情嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Arun. Look, we still have ways to go with the acquisition of M&M and the cleanup activities. I think as we get through S/4, this is a big milestone for us and will allow us to find other opportunities to better run these businesses together. So that is kind of, first and foremost, our focus. But I would also say, as it comes to divestitures, we will, as we've always been, be opportunistic and smart about it. And if we see the opportunity to divest something in the company that is worth more to someone else than it is to us, we will, of course, pursue that.

是的。謝謝，阿倫。你看，我們在收購 M&M 和清理活動方面還有很長的路要走。我認為，隨著我們完成 S/4，這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑，並將使我們能夠找到其他機會來更好地共同經營這些業務。所以，這是我們首要關注的重點。但我還要說，在資產剝離方面，我們將一如既往地抓住機會，明智行事。如果我們發現有機會剝離公司中某些對其他人來說比對我們更有價值的資產，我們當然會這麼做。

Your next question today is coming from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global.

您今天的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

A 2-part question on the Acetyl Chain to start with. Your margins in Q4 sequentially were flat to even slightly up, which was a bit surprising to me keeping in mind what the acetic acid to methanol spread did. So part 1 of the question is, how did you achieve that margin expansion?

首先是關於乙醯鏈的兩部分問題。你們第四季的利潤率環比持平甚至略有上升，考慮到醋酸和甲醇的價差，這讓我有點驚訝。所以問題的第一部分是，你是如何實現利潤率擴大的？

And then as I sort of sit there and think about 2023 for acetic, there seem to have been quite a few industry outages, which I would imagine you guys benefited from. So as you guys sort of gave us that bridge to 2024 earnings, you're talking about a $50 million to $75 million headwind from one-offs. Is the positive impact of sort of those outages baked into that as well?

然後，當我坐在那裡思考 2023 年乙酸的情況時，似乎已經出現了相當多的行業停產，我想你們從中受益了。因此，當你們為我們提供了通往 2024 年盈利的橋樑時，你們談論的是一次性事件帶來的 5000 萬至 7500 萬美元的逆風。這些停電的正面影響是否也反映在其中了呢？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Hassan. Let me start by really kind of commending the team for continuing to flex this integrated value chain model. What you saw in the fourth quarter is a combination of the team flexing production as much as possible given some of the outages that were unexpected in the Americas and flexing that to the highest value end uses that we saw and to our teams in the field and manufacturing environment, really pulling costs down as much as possible given the economic environment that we're in.

是的。謝謝你的提問，哈桑。首先，我要衷心讚揚團隊繼續靈活運用這綜合價值鏈模式。您在第四季度看到的是，考慮到美洲地區一些意外的停產，我們的團隊盡可能地靈活安排生產，並將其靈活地提供給我們看到的最高價值終端用途以及我們在現場和製造環境中的團隊，考慮到我們所處的經濟環境，真正盡可能地降低成本。

As you alluded to, some of those reverse out as we move our way into next year. But I think we do expect the markets to grow kind of in that global GDP level in the acetyl value chain, which will give us some potential offset to any kind of industry outages that may or may not happen. We are expecting utilizations to remain in kind of the 85% to 90% range. So much like you saw last year, if you see some dislocation in markets, we tend to be able to benefit from that in the short term.

正如你所提到的，隨著明年的到來，其中一些因素將會逆轉。但我認為，我們確實預計乙醯基價值鏈的市場將在全球 GDP 水準上實現成長，這將為我們提供對可能發生或可能不會發生的任何產業中斷的潛在抵消。我們預計利用率將維持在 85% 至 90% 的範圍內。就像你去年看到的那樣，如果你發現市場出現了一些混亂，我們往往能夠在短期內從中受益。

Very helpful, Scott. And as a follow-up on the sort of M&M side of things, you guys obviously shut down some nylon capacity. So if you could sort of talk a bit about what you're seeing in terms of near- to medium-term supply-demand fundamentals on nylon. And part and parcel with that, in the last quarter, you guys talked about maximizing your make versus buy decision? What's the thought process in light of what you're seeing in terms of nylon supply-demand fundamentals on the make versus buy as well?

非常有幫助，斯科特。作為對 M&M 方面的後續行動，你們顯然關閉了一些尼龍產能。因此，您可以稍微談談您對尼龍近期至中期供需基本面的看法。與此密切相關的是，在上個季度，你們談到如何最大限度地發揮自主製造與購買的決策優勢？就您看到的尼龍供需基本面而言，您對自製與購買的看法是如何的？

Our focus is creating a contemporary operating model for nylon. Not relying on low-cost raw materials to create value, but controlling where that value creation comes from. And for us, that really comes from creating compounds that are unique for our customers and maximizing that part of the value chain as much as possible. We have the ability, given where the dynamics are, to make some of those make versus buy decisions, as you mentioned, Hassan.

我們的重點是為尼龍創建現代化的營運模式。不依賴低成本的原料來創造價值，而是控制價值創造的來源。對我們來說，這實際上來自於為我們的客戶創造獨特的化合物，並盡可能地最大化價值鏈的這一部分。根據當前的形勢，我們有能力做出一些自主開發還是購買的決定，正如你所提到的，哈桑。

And as we do that, we're going to be focused, much like we do in the Acetyl Chain, on what is the lowest cost to supply those compounds, so we can remain competitive. But fundamentally, we are working to create a business model here that is minimum of 25% EBITDA in any economic environment. So the first steps of that are to take controllable costs out with the shutdown of our production capacity in Europe and then maximize our low-cost capacities that we have here in the Americas as well as purchases in Asia.

當我們這樣做時，我們將集中精力，就像我們在乙醯基鏈中所做的那樣，以最低的成本供應這些化合物，這樣我們才能保持競爭力。但從根本上來說，我們正在努力創造一種商業模式，在任何經濟環境下，EBITDA 至少能達到 25%。因此，第一步是透過關閉我們在歐洲的生產能力來降低可控成本，然後最大限度地提高我們在美洲的低成本產能以及在亞洲的採購能力。

Next question is coming from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Can you clarify the EBITDA impact from incentive comp and working capital flows in 2023, and therefore, the bridge to 2024?

您能否闡明 2023 年激勵補償和營運資金流動對 EBITDA 的影響，以及由此產生的 2024 年影響？

Sorry, I was just having a little trouble hearing your question. In 2023, we reduced inventory by about $450 million. Of that, 80% came from EM. The rest came from AC. And while I would say, it was punitive to our EBIT for the year, at the same time, our businesses did a really great job offsetting the impacts of that as well as minimizing it and making sure we took some reductions in raw materials and intermediates and things that didn't have as much of an EBITDA impact.

抱歉，我剛才聽不清楚你的問題。 2023年，我們減少了約4.5億美元的庫存。其中80%來自新興市場。其餘部分來自 AC。雖然我想說，這對我們今年的息稅前利潤造成了損害，但與此同時，我們的業務在抵消和盡量減少影響方面做得非常出色，並確保我們減少原材料和中間體以及對息稅前利潤影響較小的產品。

Okay. Great. And just in terms of the incentive comp 2024 versus 2023, is it an incremental headwind?

好的。偉大的。僅就 2024 年與 2023 年的激勵補償而言，這是否會是一個漸進的逆風？

For the inventory reductions, which will be less this year, I would expect a similar level of EBITDA hit for that. So I don't see that as being a year-on-year headwind.

對於今年庫存減少的幅度將會較小，我預期 EBITDA 的下降幅度也會類似。因此，我並不認為這會成為同比的阻力。

Yes. And on incentive comp, Laurence, I wouldn't expect it to be material year-over-year.

是的。勞倫斯，就激勵薪酬而言，我預計它不會比去年同期有實質變化。

Your next question is coming from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

Thank you very much. So first question I wanted to ask is on the Acetyl Chain. It seems like you're assuming acetic acid and (inaudible) probably will be flat year-on-year. So the growth will come from the Clear Lake expansion. What are you seeing on the supplies, because it seems to us that once the supply comes online in China in 2024, could this actually be an additional risk? And if the asset prices do come down, that is not part of the $11 to $12 guidance?

非常感謝。所以我想問的第一個問題是關於乙醯鏈的。似乎您假設乙酸和（聽不清楚）可能比去年同期持平。因此，成長將來自於 Clear Lake 的擴張。您對供應情況有何看法，因為在我們看來，一旦 2024 年中國開始供應，這實際上會是額外的風險嗎？如果資產價格確實下跌，這不就在11美元至12美元的指引範圍內嗎？

Yes, Sal, thanks for the question. Let me try to answer it. You cut out on us a few times here. Let me first kind of hit what Lori talked about earlier around $100 million really coming through productivity on a year-over-year basis. As we mentioned earlier on the call, we would expect to see growth more in line with GDP, so low single digits there given what we're seeing kind of right now in the construction sector, as Lori talked about earlier. That's kind of going to be offset by some of the outages that we had earlier in the year. So I would not focus too much on changes in utilization. The industry has more or less kind of already absorbed that new capacity that has come online in China. So really think about the year-over-year lift coming from our productivity projects.

是的，薩爾，謝謝你的提問。讓我試著回答一下。您在這裡多次打斷了我們。首先讓我來談談 Lori 之前談到的關於同比真正透過生產力實現的 1 億美元成長的問題。正如我們之前在電話會議上提到的，我們預計成長將與 GDP 更加一致，因此考慮到我們目前在建築業看到的情況，那裡的成長將是較低的個位數，就像 Lori 之前談到的一樣。這將會抵消我們今年早些時候遇到的一些停電影響。所以我不會太在意利用率的變化。該行業或多或少已經吸收了中國上線的新產能。所以認真思考我們的生產力項目所帶來的年成長。

And maybe if I could add just a little bit more color on that. If you actually look at, say, China asset pricing through the year, it was actually very steady throughout the year, except for a very short list that we saw at the end of Q3 based on some outages in the industry. But that was very short-lived and really went away as we went through -- got into the fourth quarter. So I would say we saw capacity come online last year as well, more capacity last year than it's going to come online, and that's already been absorbed, and we're still at that 85% to 90% utilization. So while there may be some additions in '24, it is much smaller than we experienced in '23, and we didn't really see the '23 capacity adds have a long-term impact on pricing.

也許我可以再添加一點點顏色。如果你實際上看一下全年的中國資產定價，你會發現它實際上全年都非常穩定，除了我們在第三季末根據行業中的一些中斷看到的一個非常短的清單。但這種情況非常短暫，隨著我們進入第四節，這種感覺就消失了。所以我想說，我們看到去年產能上線了，去年的產能比即將上線的產能還要多，而且這些產能已經被吸收了，我們的利用率仍然在 85% 到 90% 之間。因此，雖然 24 年可能會有一些增加，但比 23 年經歷的要少得多，而且我們並沒有真正看到 23 年的產能增加對定價產生長期影響。

Okay. Perfect. And for my follow-up, I want to ask a little bit about the Red Sea disruptions. And assuming that may disrupt Asia to Europe trade close, how could this impact Celanese earnings, especially in Europe. I guess, I could see this being posted more in regard to lower nylon or foam imports. But at the same time, it could affect the imports of some of the raw material we use. So what would be the net impact, you think?

好的。完美的。作為我的後續問題，我想問一些關於紅海中斷的問題。假設這可能會擾亂亞洲與歐洲的貿易關係，那麼這會如何影響塞拉尼斯的收益，特別是在歐洲的收益？我想，我可以看到這篇文章更多地涉及尼龍或泡沫進口量減少的資訊。但同時，這可能會影響我們使用的一些原料的進口。那麼您認為淨影響會是什麼呢？

Yes, I'm not sure that there'll be any benefit at this point in time. What I would say though, this is a good reflection of the value of our global supply chain for all of our businesses, because despite the challenges in the Red Sea and the Suez, there has been a lengthening of supply chain for many producers and suppliers. There has also been -- that's added some cost for some of the folks trying to get into Europe, in particular, from Asia. But because of our global supply chain, we are able to provide from other parts of the world. So we're not seeing the increased cost. What I'd say is most of the effect we've seen, I'd say, is temporary, as people adjust to the new lengthened global supply chain. So we're not really baking in any uplift or loss at this point from the issues in the Suez.

是的，我不確定目前是否會有任何好處。我想說的是，這很好地反映了我們所有業務的全球供應鏈的價值，因為儘管面臨紅海和蘇伊士運河的挑戰，但許多生產商和供應商的供應鏈仍然延長了。這也為一些試圖進入歐洲的人們（特別是來自亞洲的人們）增加了一些成本。但由於我們擁有全球供應鏈，我們能夠從世界其他地方供貨。因此我們沒有看到成本增加。我想說的是，我們看到的大部分影響都是暫時的，因為人們正在適應新的延長的全球供應鏈。因此，我們目前實際上並沒有考慮到蘇伊士運河問題帶來任何好處或損失。

Your next question today is coming from Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

您今天的下一個問題來自都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的馬修布萊爾。

So the automakers have been talking about running a lot leaner going forward and keeping their inventories low and supporting their margins rather than the previous way of just overproducing and then putting everything on sale. And I was wondering, how do you see the shift from Celanese's perspective? Is it potentially exciting to you because perhaps it could result in higher margins for Celanese? Or it is potentially a concern because it might have some impact on your overall auto volumes?

因此，汽車製造商一直在談論未來如何精簡運作、保持低庫存並維持利潤率，而不是像以前那樣過度生產然後將所有產品出售。我想知道，從塞拉尼斯的角度來看，您如何看待這種轉變？這對您來說是否很令人興奮，因為這也許會為塞拉尼斯帶來更高的利潤？或者這可能是一個問題，因為它可能會對您的整體汽車銷售產生影響？

We don't see it as being really a material impact for us. I mean, if you think about carrying lower inventories, it's largely already kind of been baked into where things are right now. And honestly, it just creates, I think, less kind of ups and downs from what we've historically seen, because your restocking, destocking to not have that in the future certainly would not be a bad thing for us at all. But overall, we don't see really any significant impact.

我們並不認為這會為我們帶來實質的影響。我的意思是，如果你考慮降低庫存，那麼它基本上已經被融入到當前的情況中了。老實說，我認為，與歷史上的情況相比，它不會造成太大的起伏，因為你補貨、去庫存，以便將來不再出現這種情況，這對我們來說絕對不是一件壞事。但總體而言，我們並沒有看到任何重大影響。

Sounds good. And then I just want to clarify on the Clear Lake acetic acid expansion, this $100 million in productivity. Is this also your estimate of like the long-run EBITDA potential for this expansion? Or what do you think it could generate in a more normalized environment?

聽起來不錯。然後我只想澄清一下 Clear Lake 醋酸擴建項目，這項耗資 1 億美元的生產力項目。這也是您對此次擴張的長期 EBITDA 潛力的估計嗎？或者您認為它在更正常化的環境中能產生什麼？

Well, remember, we justified the expansion of Clear Lake acid and the CCU project really well. The Clear Lake acid, just on productivity, so catalyst savings, energy savings, less freight by shipping out of the U.S. versus Asia to Europe, so those sorts of things. So that $100 million, I would say, is intact. It also tied to the CCU project, which again was a very low-cost project that really was initially put in place just to generate additional methanol for use at our Clear Lake site.

嗯，記住，我們很好地證明了 Clear Lake 酸和 CCU 計畫的擴張是合理的。 Clear Lake 酸僅在生產率方面有所提高，因此可以節省催化劑、節省能源，而且從美國運往歐洲（而不是亞洲運往歐洲）的運費也更少，諸如此類。所以我想說，那 ​​1 億美元是完好無損的。它也與 CCU 項目相關，而 CCU 項目也是一個非常低成本的項目，最初設立的目的只是為了生產額外的甲醇供我們的 Clear Lake 工廠使用。

Now we think there'll be more value from that as we go forward as we see what customer demand is for lower carbon products, but we probably won't have a good feel for that until later in the year and into 2025. If we were to get in a situation like we saw in '21, or even in '18, where a lot of supply disruption, rapid demand growth, obviously, we could use Clear Lake for a source of acetic acid production into those very tight markets, which would greatly increase the return. But again, we're not counting on that. We justified the project based on productivity and if there is a flywheel if we get into periods of higher demand and margins.

現在，我們認為，隨著我們了解客戶對低碳產品的需求，這將帶來更多價值，但可能要到今年晚些時候和 2025 年才能對此有一個很好的感覺。但是，我們再次不指望這一點。我們根據生產力來論證該專案的合理性，並看看如果我們進入需求和利潤率較高的時期，是否存在飛輪。

Yes, Matthew, I'd add, one of the other benefits in the near term for us is it adds redundancy to our U.S. Gulf Coast network. And we called out in the prepared comments that we had some unexpected outages that would have more or less been offset had we had the new acetic acid unit up and operating. So it gives us that redundancy to ensure that some of the near-term blips that we've had in our U.S. Gulf Coast network in the past, we're able to manage those better in the future.

是的，馬修，我想補充一點，短期內對我們來說的另一個好處是它為我們的美國墨西哥灣沿岸網絡增加了冗餘度。我們在準備好的評論中指出，我們遇到了一些意外停產的情況，如果我們新的醋酸裝置投入運營，這些影響或多或少就會得到抵消。因此，它為我們提供了冗餘，以確保我們能夠在未來更好地管理過去在美國墨西哥灣沿岸網路中出現的一些短期故障。

Your next question is coming from John Roberts from Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

Back to Sal's question on the Red Sea and the Suez. Do you think the reduced Asia exports into Europe are coincident with the Red Sea incidents here. It seems odd that China would be improving before Lunar New Year. And I think Japan just slipped back into recession. So we're not hearing from other companies about demand picking up in Asia.

回到薩爾關於紅海和蘇伊士的問題。您認為亞洲對歐洲出口的減少與紅海事件有關嗎？中國在農曆新年前經濟狀況改善似乎有點奇怪。我認為日本又陷入了經濟衰退。因此，我們沒有聽到其他公司關於亞洲需求回升的消息。

Yes. So that really occurred before we started seeing the issues in the Red Sea. So I don't think they're related. I think it does relate to demand picking up again for consumer use in China, in Asia, which is reducing the amount of material that is having to move out of Asia. So I think subsequently, we may see that impact continue because of the Red Sea, but I really think it does demonstrate a strengthening of the markets in Asia.

是的。所以這確實發生在我們開始看到紅海問題之前。所以我不認為它們有關係。我認為這確實與中國和亞洲的消費需求再次回升有關，從而減少了必須運出亞洲的材料數量。因此我認為隨後我們可能會看到這種影響因為紅海而持續，但我確實認為它確實表明亞洲市場正在走強。

And then secondly, I'm not sure we heard earlier about the stocking cycle in Vamac Rubber. Is it harder to track customer inventory in that product area?

其次，我不確定我們之前是否聽說過 Vamac Rubber 的備貨週期。追蹤該產品領域的客戶庫存是否更困難？

Look, Vamac is a little unique in that it is a highly differentiated, high-value product, primarily used in auto. It has some unique attributes, and we have some unique marketing positions. So it's not provided by a lot of people. I would say it was one of the reasons actually that we were so interested in the M&M acquisition, there was one of the product line that we thought would be highly complementary to Santoprene and we, in fact, have found, for future projects, it is highly complementary. But I would also say, due to reliability issues, and high demand, it was very constrained in '21 and '22.

Vamac 有點獨特，因為它是一種高度差異化、高價值的產品，主要用於汽車。它具有一些獨特的屬性，我們也有一些獨特的行銷地位。因此很多人都不提供它。我想說這實際上是我們對收購 M&M 如此感興趣的原因之一，我們認為其中一條產品線與 Santoprene 高度互補，事實上，我們發現，對於未來的項目而言，它是高度互補的。但我還要說，由於可靠性問題和高需求，它在'21年和'22年受到了嚴重限制。

So one of the things that we've focused on since the acquisition is resolving those reliability issues and increasing the production, which we were successful at doing. I would say mid-'23, when we were able to get our volumes up, we saw customers buying up everything they could because they were used to having to go for it. And so as we moved to the fourth quarter, they realized supply stability was better, and we went back to what I think will be -- well, we had a low point in fourth quarter. And then I think this year, as we go forward, we'll see more normal demand patterns versus kind of the high highs we saw in second and third quarter and the low that we saw in the fourth quarter.

因此，自收購以來，我們一直關注的事情之一就是解決這些可靠性問題並提高產量，而我們成功地做到了這一點。我想說，在 23 年中期，當我們能夠提高銷售量時，我們看到客戶購買了所有他們能買到的東西，因為他們已經習慣了這樣做。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，他們意識到供應穩定性更好了，我們又回到了我認為的狀況——嗯，我們在第四季度處於低谷。然後我認為，今年，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到更正常的需求模式，而不是第二季和第三季的高點和第四季的低點。

Our next question is coming from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 On Field Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

My first question is on M&M. If I go back to the (technical difficulty) we did the acquisition, half this business is sort of nylons and then half of this business is China and Asia. So when we look at the current level of earnings versus what you thought of $900 million, where is the exact shortfall regionally and product-wise? Is this in Asia? Or is this actually in Europe, U.S. country? Is this in nylons or is this outside nylons? That's my first question.

我的第一個問題是關於 M&M 的。如果我回顧我們進行收購時遇到的（技術難題），這項業務的一半是尼龍，另一半是中國和亞洲。那麼，當我們將目前的獲利水準與您所認為的 9 億美元進行比較時，從地區和產品角度來看，確切的缺口在哪裡？這是在亞洲嗎？還是這其實是在歐洲、美國？這是尼龍襪裡面的還是尼龍襪外面的？這是我的第一個問題。

(technical difficulty) question really is around the acetic value chain. This year, potentially, you will still have some pressure because of demand versus supply upstream in acetic acid. What is your strategy with regards to VAE and [PPP] in the middle stream or downstream? Are you going to push to gain more market share? Or are you happy to sort of have a more upstream position?

(技術難題)問題其實圍繞著乙酸價值鏈。今年，由於醋酸上游的供需衝突，您仍可能面臨一些壓力。您對中游或下游的 VAE 和 [PPP] 有何策略？您會努力爭取更多的市場佔有率嗎？或者你樂意擁有更上游的地位嗎？

Yes. So let me talk about the M&M acquisition. I mean, you're right, a significant amount is nylon, but some of it is high temperature nylon, more specialized nylon. I think where we have seen the challenges since the acquisition in nylon is really around more standard grade and volumes that were lost in 2022 due to pricing decisions that were made at that time. I think the teams have done a really good job starting to get some of that back, which is important, and that will continue to happen again and we will continue to see improvement in variable margin as we flow through what now has been reduced with lower cost raws and lower fixed costs.

是的。那麼讓我來談談 M&M 收購案。我的意思是，你是對的，相當一部分是尼龍，但其中一些是高溫尼龍，更專業的尼龍。我認為，自收購尼龍以來，我們所面臨的挑戰實際上是圍繞著更多標準等級和產量，由於當時做出的定價決策，這些挑戰在 2022 年有所損失。我認為團隊已經做得很好了，開始收回部分成本，這很重要，而且這種情況會繼續發生，隨著原材料成本降低和固定成本降低，我們將繼續看到可變利潤率的改善。

So I don't know that it was really -- while it was around nylon, I wouldn't say it was specific to any 1 region or not. I mean, DuPont was very strong in Asia outside of China, which has actually been a pretty stable market this year. They were stronger in the U.S., where auto has been stronger. They weren't as strong in Europe. Celanese was stronger there. So I would say it's not specific to any 1 region, but it's been more of a challenge specific to the volume loss that happened in 2022 and the steps that we have taken to start recovering that volume in a fairly low demand environment.

所以我不知道它是否真的——雖然它與尼龍有關，但我不會說它是否特定於某個地區。我的意思是，杜邦在中國以外的亞洲市場表現非常強勁，而今年亞洲市場實際上相當穩定。在美國，他們的實力更強，而美國的汽車產業也更強大。他們在歐洲並不那麼強大。塞拉尼斯在那裡實力更強。因此，我想說這並不是針對任何一個地區，而是一個更大的挑戰，針對的是 2022 年發生的銷售損失，以及我們在相當低的需求環境下開始恢復銷售所採取的措施。

And your second question around acetic acid, maybe I'll ask Scott to take that.

至於您關於乙酸的第二個問題，也許我會請斯科特來回答。

Yes. Very similar to what we saw last year. The current dynamics that we're seeing in the market globally, it makes a lot more sense for us to be pushing product downstream just given where some of the pricing and margin is on the upstream, and VAE has been a heavy lift for us from an earnings standpoint along with our redispersible powders as well as the Acetate Tow business, as we talked about. And in the current dynamics, it just makes a lot of sense for us to continue to maximize production as far downstream as we can.

是的。與我們去年看到的情況非常相似。就我們目前在全球市場上看到的動態來看，考慮到部分定價和利潤都在上游，將產品推向下游對我們來說更有意義，而正如我們之前所討論的，從盈利角度來看，VAE、可再分散乳膠粉以及醋酸纖維絲束業務給我們帶來了巨大的提振。在目前的情況下，我們繼續盡可能地提高下游產量是非常有意義的。

Kevin, we'll make the next question our last one.

凱文，下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題。

Certainly. Our final question today is coming from Patrick Cunningham from Citi.

當然。今天的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Cunningham。

Maybe just a clarification. On the $50 million turnaround impacts, are the large majority isolated in the first quarter? And do you have any other planned turnarounds to be aware of in 2024 or early 2025?

也許只是澄清一下。就 5,000 萬美元的周轉影響而言，絕大多數是否都集中在第一季？您還有其他計劃在 2024 年或 2025 年初值得關注的轉變嗎？

Thanks, Patrick. So the $50 million is in the first quarter. We're up about $50 million from last year. So through the remainder of the year, there's probably another $50 million spread across the remainder of 3 quarters. But that's consistent with last year. So incremental to '23 is $50 million, and I would think of it all occurring in the first quarter.

謝謝，派崔克。所以這 5,000 萬美元是在第一季。與去年相比，我們增加了約 5,000 萬美元。因此，在今年剩餘的時間裡，可能還會有另外 5,000 萬美元分佈在剩餘的 3 個季度中。但這與去年一致。因此，23 年的增量是 5000 萬美元，我認為這一切都將在第一季發生。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給管理階層，讓他們發表進一步的評論或結束評論。

Thanks, everyone. We'd like to thank everyone for joining. As always, we're around after the call if you have any follow-up questions at all. Kevin, please go ahead and close out the call.

謝謝大家。我們感謝大家的加入。像往常一樣，如果您有任何後續問題，我們會在通話結束後隨時為您服務。凱文，請繼續並結束通話。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，並享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。