使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator.
感謝您的耐心等待。這是會議接線員。
Welcome to the Cameco Corporation Third quarter 2025 results conference call.
歡迎參加 Cameco 公司 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。
(Operator Instruction).
(操作說明)
I would now like to turn the conference over to Cory Kos, Vice President, Investor Relations.
現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁科里·科斯。
Cory Kos - Vice President, Investor Relations
Cory Kos - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone. Welcome to Cameco's Third quarter conference call.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。歡迎參加Cameco第三季財報電話會議。
I would like to acknowledge that we are calling in from both Toronto and Saskatoon today. Toronto is on Treaty 13 territory in the traditional territory of many nations, including the Mississaugas of the Credit, the Anishinaabe, the Chippewa.
我想說明一下,我們今天分別從多倫多和薩斯卡通兩個地點撥入電話。多倫多位於第 13 號條約領土上,是許多民族的傳統領土,包括克雷迪特河密西沙加人、阿尼什納貝人、奇佩瓦人。
The Hodino Shawnee and the Winder peoples, and now home to many diverse First Nations, Inuit and Metis peoples. Our corporate office in Saskatoon, which is on Treaty Six territory, is the traditional territory of the Cree people and homeland of the Metis.
這裡曾是霍迪諾肖尼人和溫德人的家園,現在是許多不同的原住民、因紐特人和梅蒂人的家園。我們在薩斯卡通的公司總部位於第六號條約領土上,這是克里族人的傳統領土和梅蒂人的家。
With us in Toronto are Tim Gitzel, CEO, Grant Isaac, President and COO, and Heidi Shockey, SVP and CFO.
與我們一同來到多倫多的有執行長 Tim Gitzel、總裁兼營運長 Grant Isaac 以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Heidi Shockey。
Rachelle Girard, SVP and Chief Corporate Officer, is joining from our Saskatoon headquarters.
資深副總裁兼首席企業長 Rachelle Girard 將從我們在薩斯卡通的總部連線。
I'll hand it over to Tim momentarily to speak to the strong financial results we've delivered through the First Nine months of the year, which have kept Cameco in a solid position amid growing momentum in nuclear markets. Tim will also touch on the recently announced agreement for the US government to purchase Westinghouse reactors, which is expected to drive significant value to Westinghouse and to Cameco, setting up the Westinghouse reactors as the leading technology in the global deployment of gigawatt scale nuclear.
我將把發言權交給蒂姆,讓他談談我們在今年前九個月取得的強勁財務業績,這些業績使 Cameco 在核能市場不斷增長的勢頭中保持了穩固的地位。提姆還將談到美國政府最近宣布的購買西屋反應器的協議,預計這將為西屋和卡梅科帶來巨大的價值,使西屋反應器成為全球吉瓦級核能部署的領先技術。
After we will open up to your questions. Today's call will be approximately one hour, concluding at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time.
之後我們會回答你們的問題。今天的電話會議大約持續一小時,將於美國東部時間上午 9 點結束。
Our goal is to be open and transparent with our communication, and we want to respect everyone's time and conclude the call by 9:00 a.m. Therefore, should we not get to your questions during this call, or if you would like to get into detailed financial modeling questions about our results, we would be happy to respond to any follow-up inquiries.
我們的目標是保持溝通的公開透明,同時尊重每個人的時間,並爭取在上午 9 點前結束通話。因此,如果您的問題在本次通話中未能得到解答,或者您想深入了解我們結果的財務模型方面的問題,我們很樂意回答任何後續的詢問。
There are a few ways you can contact us with additional questions. You can reach out to the contacts provided in our news release. You can submit a question through the send us a message link in the investor section of our website, or you can use the ask a question form at the bottom of the webcast screen, and we'll be happy to follow-up after this call.
如有其他疑問,您可以透過以下幾種方式與我們聯絡。您可以聯絡我們新聞稿中提供的聯絡資訊。您可以透過我們網站投資者部分的「給我們留言」連結提交問題,或者您可以使用網路直播螢幕底部的「提問」表格,我們將在本次通話結束後很樂意跟進。
If you join the conference call to our website event page, there are slides available which will be displayed during the call. In addition, for your reference, our quarterly investor handout is available for download in a PDF file on our website at Cameco.com.
如果您透過我們網站的活動頁面加入電話會議,頁面上會提供幻燈片,這些幻燈片將在會議期間顯示。此外,供您參考,我們的季度投資者手冊可在我們的網站 Cameco.com 上以 PDF 文件格式下載。
Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community, including the media.
今天的電話會議向投資界所有成員開放,包括媒體。
During the Q&A session, please limit yourself to two questions and return to the queue. Note that this conference call will include forward-looking information which is based on a number of assumptions and actual results could differ materially.
在問答環節中,請每人限提兩個問題,然後返回隊列。請注意,本次電話會議將包含前瞻性訊息,這些資訊基於許多假設,實際結果可能與這些假設有重大差異。
You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today except as required by law.
您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異,除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新今天所作任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
As required by securities laws, we also need to make you aware that during today's discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-IFRS and other financial measures. Cameco believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends, and a full reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures is available at Cameco.com/invest.
根據證券法的要求,我們還需要告知您,在今天的討論中,公司將多次提及非國際財務報告準則和其他財務指標。Cameco 認為這些措施為投資者提供了有關潛在業務趨勢的有用視角,完整的非 IFRS 財務指標調節表可在 Cameco.com/invest 上查閱。
Please refer to our most recent annual information form an MD&A for more information about the factors that could cause these different results and the assumptions we have made.
有關可能導致這些不同結果的因素以及我們所做的假設的更多信息,請參閱我們最新的年度資訊表(管理層討論與分析)。
I will now turn it over to our CEO Tim Gitzel.
現在我將把發言權交給我們的執行長提姆·吉澤爾。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you, Cory, and hello everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to join our discussion today.
謝謝你,科里,大家好。感謝您今天抽出時間參與我們的討論。
Hope everyone is doing well and has had the opportunity to enjoy some quality time with friends and family over the past few months, whether that meant settling into the last days of summer or enjoying the early signs of spring, depending on where you are in the world.
希望大家一切安好,在過去的幾個月裡,無論身處世界何處,都能有機會與親朋好友共度美好時光,無論是享受夏日的尾聲,還是感受春天的氣息。
The baseball fans out there, what a ride it was for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Dodgers in the World Series this past week.
各位棒球迷們,過去一周多倫多藍鳥隊和洛杉磯道奇隊在世界大賽中的精彩對決真是令人難忘。
As Cory said, we're actually calling in from Toronto, Canada today, and I can tell you the air is still a little heavy.
正如科里所說,我們今天實際上是從加拿大多倫多打來的電話,我可以告訴你,這裡的空氣仍然有點沉悶。
Even though the home team Blue Jays didn't come out with the trophy, as the only Major League Baseball team here in Canada, they certainly gave us all a thrilling run and plenty to be proud of.
儘管主隊藍鳥隊最終未能捧起獎杯,但作為加拿大唯一的美國職棒大聯盟球隊,他們無疑為我們帶來了一場激動人心的比賽,也讓我們有很多值得驕傲的地方。
We're here in Eastern Canada for this call because we had the opportunity as a board and a management team to head south to Georgia yesterday, where we took a tour of Vogel units three and four, which are Westinghouse AP 1,000 technology, and the two newest reactors in the US.
我們今天在加拿大東部參加這次電話會議,因為昨天我們董事會和管理團隊有機會前往喬治亞州南部,參觀了沃格爾核電廠的三號和四號機組,它們採用西屋 AP 1000 技術,是美國最新的兩個反應器。
Seeing that technology in action was a powerful reminder of what's possible when innovation, policy, and industry align.
親眼目睹這項技術的實際應用,有力地提醒我們,當創新、政策和產業協調一致時,能夠取得怎樣的成就。
Speaking of alignment, I'm delighted to start today by touching on the recent announcement of the transformative partnership between Cameco, Brookfield, and the US government and Westinghouse, marking a major milestone for the company and for the entire sector.
說到協調一致,我很高興今天首先要談談最近宣布的 Cameco、Brookfield、美國政府和西屋電氣之間具有變革意義的合作夥伴關係,這標誌著該公司和整個行業的一個重要里程碑。
Backed by at least $80 billion US in planned investments in Westinghouse nuclear reactors.
至少有800億美元的投資計畫用於西屋公司的核反應器。
We expect this milestone will accelerate the global deployment of Westinghouse's reactor technology, strengthening energy security, revitalizing domestic supply chains, and creating significant growth opportunities for both Westinghouse and for Cameco.
我們預計這一里程碑將加速西屋公司反應器技術的全球部署,加強能源安全,重振國內供應鏈,並為西屋公司和卡梅科公司創造巨大的成長機會。
For the nuclear industry, this long-term commitment to new nuclear is a clear sign that the growth story continues to build momentum.
對於核工業而言,這種對新建核電項目的長期投入清楚地表明,核電行業的成長動能仍在持續增強。
It's not just about energy security, it's about powering the infrastructure behind AI data centers, and hard to abate sectors with the next generation of clean, reliable electricity.
這不僅關乎能源安全,還關乎為人工智慧資料中心的基礎設施以及難以減排的產業提供下一代清潔、可靠的電力。
For Westinghouse, the partnership highlights clear support for its best in class reactor technology from the nation that hosts the largest nuclear fleet, and has the most significant experience in operating nuclear reactors.
對於西屋公司而言,此次合作凸顯了其一流反應器技術獲得了來自擁有最大核電站群、且在核反應器運營方面擁有最豐富經驗的國家的明確支持。
Support from the US bolsters confidence for the global jurisdictions that are currently advancing toward AP 1,000 deployment.
美國的支持增強了目前正在推動 AP 1,000 部署的全球司法管轄區的信心。
And for those countries still deciding on a technology for their nuclear buildout, this partnership should provide an incredible amount of confidence that the Westinghouse designs are the technology of choice.
對於那些仍在為核能建設選擇技術的國家來說,這種合作關係應該能讓他們確信西屋公司的設計是最佳選擇。
For us at Cameco, the agreement adds significant support to the industry growth story.
對 Cameco 而言,這項協議為產業發展注入了強勁動力。
It's positive for the outlook for nuclear across North America and globally, and therefore positive for Cameco's long-term contracting and production strategy.
這對北美乃至全球核能的前景都是正面的,因此對 Cameco 的長期合約和生產策略也是正面的。
It wasn't already clear from the press release this week. Let me reiterate that the agreement signed with the US government is about support for nuclear energy and Westinghouse reactor technology.
本週的新聞稿中還沒有明確說明這一點。讓我再次重申,與美國政府簽署的協議是關於支持核能和西屋反應器技術。
That's a great development for Cameco and our stakeholders thanks to our investment in Westinghouse.
由於我們對西屋電氣的投資,這對 Cameco 和我們的利害關係人來說都是一個巨大的進步。
We directly address some of the misinformation we've seen published in the last few days.
我們將直接回應最近幾天看到的一些不實訊息。
US government partnership interest does not extend to Cameco's core business, although our uranium products and fuel services are certainly well positioned to support the build out and long-term operation of the global fleet as it grows.
美國政府的合作興趣並未延伸到 Cameco 的核心業務,儘管我們的鈾產品和燃料服務無疑能夠很好地支持全球艦隊的建設和長期運營,隨著艦隊的壯大而不斷增長。
Partnership strengthens our footprint to create meaningful value for our stakeholders.
建立合作關係能夠增強我們的影響力,為我們的利害關係人創造有意義的價值。
But the participation interest by the US government is only focused on the Westinghouse business.
但美國政府的參與興趣僅限於西屋電氣的業務。
It's a rare opportunity to combine policy momentum, proven technology, and commercial scale.
這是一個將政策勢頭、成熟技術和商業規模結合起來的難得機會。
And we believe it positions both Cameco and Westinghouse to deliver sustainable growth, ongoing innovation, and energy leadership for decades to come.
我們相信,這將使 Cameco 和 Westinghouse 在未來幾十年內實現可持續成長、持續創新和能源領域的領先地位。
As we look ahead, it's clear that today nuclear energy is not just maintaining relevance as the global energy landscape evolves.
展望未來,很明顯,隨著全球能源格局的演變,核能如今不僅保持其重要性。
It's undergoing an expansion and meaningful transformation.
它正在經歷擴張和意義深遠的變革。
In that transformation, the entire fuel cycle is now receiving more significant attention than ever, not just the front end of uranium mining.
在這種轉變中,整個燃料循環現在比以往任何時候都更受到重視,而不僅僅是鈾礦開採的前端。
From conversion and enrichment to fuel fabrication and reactor deployment, the momentum is real, and we're frequently seeing new promises of future supply and capacity within each stage.
從轉化和濃縮到燃料製造和反應器部署,發展勢頭強勁,我們經常看到每個階段都有新的未來供應和產能前景。
Unfortunately, a compelling narrative alone won't turn a turbine.
可惜,光有引人入勝的故事是無法轉動渦輪機的。
Execution is key, and Cameco is in an exceptional position to execute and deliver value.
執行力是關鍵,而 Cameco 在執行和創造價值方面處於非常有利的地位。
With decades of experience operating unique and complex assets, we play a critical role in the long-term health of the nuclear industry.
憑藉著數十年來經營獨特複雜資產的經驗,我們在核工業的長期健康發展中發揮著至關重要的作用。
That experience gives us the ability to be selective and strategic, committing unencumbered productive capacity under long-term contracts that align with customer needs.
這種經驗使我們能夠進行選擇和策略規劃,在符合客戶需求的長期合約下投入不受限制的生產能力。
Our approach ensures downside protection while preserving exposure to future market price improvements.
我們的方法既能確保下行風險得到控制,也能保留未來市場價格上漲所帶來的機會。
It's a disciplined strategy that balances risk and opportunity built on trust, performance, and a deep understanding of how to build value across market cycles.
這是一種嚴謹的策略,它在風險和機會之間取得平衡,建立在信任、績效以及對如何在市場週期中創造價值的深刻理解之上。
As demand continues to grow, driven by energy security, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure, we're confident Cameco, with assets that are critical to the industry, is well positioned to support the next chapter of nuclear growth.
在能源安全、脫碳和數位基礎設施的推動下,需求持續成長,我們相信,擁有對產業至關重要的資產的 Cameco 已做好充分準備,支持核能發展的下一個篇章。
Turning to a discussion centered on those assets, I want to run through a few brief highlights for the quarter and year-to-date.
接下來,我想圍繞這些資產展開討論,並簡要回顧本季和年初至今的一些亮點。
I'll first note that the update we shared in late August regarding our McArthur River and Key Lake operations, where development delays in 2025 resulted in a decreased annual production forecast.
首先我要指出的是,我們在 8 月下旬分享了有關麥克阿瑟河和基湖業務的最新進展,由於 2025 年的開發延誤,導致年度產量預測下降。
We previously expected 18 million pounds in McArthur River, and we now expect packaged production of between 14million and 15 million pounds on a 100% basis.
我們之前預計麥克阿瑟河的產量為 1800 萬磅,現在我們預計 100% 產量下的包裝產量將在 1400 萬至 1500 萬磅之間。
Depending on operational performance at the Cigar Lake mine in the fourth quarter, we may be able to make up some of the shortfall from McArthur.
根據 Cigar Lake 礦場第四季的營運表現,我們或許能夠彌補 McArthur 礦場的部分虧損。
But we do not expect to make up all of it.
但我們並不指望能彌補全部損失。
We've therefore reduced our consolidated production outlook for 2025, and we now expect our share of production to be up to 20 million pounds of uranium.
因此,我們下調了 2025 年的綜合產量預期,目前預計我們的鈾產量份額將達到 2,000 萬磅。
Remember that while our mine production is expected to be lower, our supply sourcing flexibility is one of our many competitive advantages.
請記住,雖然我們礦山的產量預計會下降,但我們靈活的供應來源是我們眾多競爭優勢之一。
JV Inkai, which as a committed purchase is among our sources, production is going well.
JV Inkai 是我們採購的供應商之一,生產進展順利。
We continue to expect production of 8.3 million pounds, of which our purchase allocation is 3.7 million pounds.
我們仍然預計產量為 830 萬磅,其中我們的採購配額為 370 萬磅。
A portion of that allocation is currently in transit to Canada, including about 900,000 pounds that had remained at JV Inkai from our 2024 purchase allocation.
該分配的一部分目前正在運往加拿大,其中包括我們 2024 年採購分配中剩餘在 JV Inkai 的約 900,000 磅。
In our fuel services division, our annual production outlook remains on track, totalling between 13 million and 14 million kg of combined fuel services products.
在我們的燃油服務部門,我們的年度生產前景依然穩定,燃油服務產品總產量在 1,300 萬至 1,400 萬公斤之間。
To meet our sales commitments and deliver full cycle value, we plan years in advance and always provide for flexibility in how we source the supply we need, including production, inventory, product loans, and both market and long-term purchases.
為了履行我們的銷售承諾並提供全週期價值,我們提前數年進行規劃,並始終靈活地獲取所需的供應,包括生產、庫存、產品借用以及市場和長期採購。
This quarter reflects our flexibility as we adjusted a number of the supply levers that we have at our disposal, including our planned market purchases and product loans to help offset the impact of the production changes.
本季體現了我們的靈活性,我們調整了可支配的多個供應槓桿,包括計劃中的市場採購和產品貸款,以幫助抵消生產變化的影響。
We will continue to balance all available sources with a focus on value creation, risk management, and sustainability.
我們將繼續平衡所有可用資源,並專注於價值創造、風險管理和永續性。
Moving to Cameco's financial results, after a solid first nine months, we're in a position for a strong finish to the year, supported by the higher expected deliveries in our uranium and fuel services segments in the fourth quarter and a solid quarter for Westinghouse.
再來看 Cameco 的財務業績,經過穩健的前九個月,我們預計在第四季度取得強勁的業績收官,這得益於鈾和燃料服務部門預計更高的交付量以及西屋電氣部門穩健的季度業績。
Key contributor to the positive performance year-to-date was the increase of over $170 million US dollars in our share of Westinghouse's revenue recorded in the second quarter.
今年迄今為止取得積極業績的關鍵因素是,我們在第二季度從西屋電氣獲得的收入份額增加了超過 1.7 億美元。
While quarterly uranium and fuel services sales volumes were lower overall, we saw continued improvement in average realized prices in both segments.
雖然季度鈾和燃料服務銷售量總體有所下降,但這兩個領域的平均實現價格均持續改善。
As we always highlight, quarterly results will vary due to timing of our customers' requirements, and it's our annual expectations that matter most.
正如我們一直強調的那樣,由於客戶需求的時間安排不同,季度業績會有差異,而年度預期才是最重要的。
As I said earlier, those expectations continue to point to higher deliveries in the fourth quarter.
正如我之前所說,這些預期仍然指向第四季更高的交付量。
Looking at our financial position, we've remained disciplined in managing liquidity to support our operations and sourcing decisions.
從財務狀況來看,我們一直保持嚴格的流動性管理,以支援我們的營運和採購決策。
Our discipline enables us to deliver on our strategy, take advantage of opportunities, and self-manage risk.
我們的自律使我們能夠實現策略目標,抓住機遇,並進行自我風險管控。
We're maintaining a strong balance sheet guided by our investment grade rating and supported by strong cash flow generation.
在投資等級信用評等和強勁現金流的支撐下,我們維持著穩健的資產負債表。
So from a financial perspective, we are in excellent shape with $779 million in cash and cash equivalents.
因此從財務角度來看,我們的財務狀況非常良好,擁有 7.79 億美元的現金及現金等價物。
$1 billion in total debt.
總債務達10億美元。
And a $1 billion undrawn revolving credit facility.
以及10億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。
Subsequent to the quarter in October, we received $171.5 million US from Westinghouse related to the Korean reactor built in the Czech Republic, which was announced in the second quarter.
繼 10 月的季度之後,我們從西屋公司收到了 1.715 億美元,這筆款項與在捷克共和國建造的韓國反應爐有關,該反應爐已於第二季宣布。
With our improving financial performance and the receipt of the additional distribution from Westinghouse, our board of directors elected to accelerate our plan to grow the dividend and have declared a 2025 annual dividend of $0.24 per common share.
由於財務表現不斷改善,並且收到了西屋公司的額外分紅,我們的董事會決定加快提高股息的計劃,並宣布 2025 年每股普通股派發 0.24 美元的年度股息。
These are incredibly exciting times for this industry, and the outlook is becoming stronger with each passing day. That strength is reflected in Cameco's improving performance as we navigate challenges and seize opportunities.
對於這個行業來說,這是一個令人無比令人興奮的時代,而且前景一天比一天光明。這種實力體現在 Cameco 不斷提升的業績上,我們能夠應對挑戰並抓住機會。
It's about more than just supplying fuel. It's about enabling a future energy system that is secure, reliable, and carbon-free.
這不僅僅是供應燃料的問題。這是為了建構一個安全、可靠、無碳的未來能源系統。
We remain focused on strong partnerships and long-term value creation.
我們將繼續專注於建立牢固的合作夥伴關係和創造長期價值。
Enhancing energy and national security objectives and advancing nuclear as a cornerstone of the clean energy transition.
加強能源和國家安全目標,並將核能作為清潔能源轉型的基石。
We're not just participating in the energy transition, we're shaping it.
我們不僅參與能源轉型,我們也正在塑造能源轉型。
Before we conclude, I'd like to highlight a couple of changes to our executive team.
在結束之前,我想先重點介紹一下我們高階主管團隊的幾項變動。
Our Chief Marketing Officer, David Doerksen has announced his intention to retire at the end of the first quarter of 2026.
我們的首席行銷長大衛多爾克森宣布他打算在 2026 年第一季末退休。
It has been an absolute pleasure to work with David during his 28-year career with Cameco, over which he has held senior positions in corporate strategy, corporate development, treasury, and marketing.
在戴維為 Cameco 效力的 28 年裡,與他共事絕對是一種榮幸。在此期間,他曾擔任公司策略、公司發展、財務和行銷等高階職位。
On behalf of the board and management team, I'd like to thank David for his significant contributions, not only to Cameco, but to the entire nuclear industry and for sharing his deep industry knowledge and expertise over the years.
我謹代表董事會和管理團隊,感謝大衛為卡梅科公司以及整個核能產業做出的重大貢獻,並感謝他多年來分享其深厚的行業知識和專業技能。
We wish him the absolute best in his retirement.
我們衷心祝福他退休生活一切順利。
Beginning January 1, 2026, David will assume the role of senior advisor marketing until his retirement date of March 31, 2026.
從 2026 年 1 月 1 日起,David 將擔任高級行銷顧問一職,直至 2026 年 3 月 31 日退休。
Lisa Aitken, currently Vice President of marketing, has been with Cameco's marketing group for nearly 20 years.
Lisa Aitken 現任行銷副總裁,在 Cameco 的行銷部門工作了近 20 年。
She will be appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer effective January 1, 2026.
她將於 2026 年 1 月 1 日起被任命為高級副總裁兼首席行銷長。
I'm pleased to welcome Lisa with her strong leadership and the market experience that she brings to the senior executive team.
我很高興歡迎 Lisa 加入高階管理團隊,她擁有出色的領導能力和豐富的市場經驗。
Tim Shirkey, currently Senior Director in the Marketing Group, will move into Lisa's previous role of Vice President marketing.
現任行銷集團高級總監的蒂姆·希爾基將接替麗莎擔任行銷副總裁一職。
So thank you all for joining us today, both on the line and via webcast.
感謝各位今天透過電話和網路直播參與我們的節目。
We appreciate your continued interest and we'll now open the floor to your questions.
感謝您一直以來的關注,現在我們將開放提問環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Ralph Profiti, Stifel.
(操作說明)Ralph Profiti,Stifel。
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Thank you, operator, and good morning, Team Cameco.
謝謝接線員,早安,Cameco團隊。
Tim or Grant, on the issue of the standby product loan facilities which are part of the, supply levers, are those discussions as flexible and is that material as accessible, as in the past, say the last one or two years, and what can you tell us about the timing of when those pounds need to be repaid?
提姆或格蘭特,關於作為供應槓桿一部分的備用產品貸款機制,這些討論是否像過去一兩年那樣靈活,相關材料是否像過去那樣容易取得?你們能告訴我們這些英鎊何時需要償還嗎?
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Good Morning, Ralph, and thanks for the question. I'll get Grant to handle it.
早安,拉爾夫,謝謝你的提問。我會讓格蘭特去處理這件事。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah Ralph, I'm just going to use a word you did which is flexible. We don't have a standard arrangement, it's, it differs by counterparty, availability continues to be strong as demonstrated by the adjustments to our outlook. Production was down, but our market purchases didn't go up. And then in terms of what the actual, repayment looks like that just differs from counterparty to counterparty, and we just always aim to, create the most amount of value under our contract portfolio for doing it. So a really important tool in our toolbox, I can't emphasize that enough, it is a very unique incumbent advantage that Cameco has that others don't, an advantage we continue to take. Full use of, when required, and ultimately it comes from the fact that you can only store uranium at a few places, and we just happen to have a couple of those licensed facilities and therefore it gives us a tremendous advantage.
是的,拉爾夫,我就用你剛才用的那個詞,那就是「靈活」。我們沒有標準安排,具體情況因交易對手而異,但正如我們調整展望所表明的那樣,供應仍然強勁。產量下降了,但我們的市場採購量並沒有增加。至於實際的還款方式,則因交易對手而異,而我們始終致力於透過我們的合約組合創造最大的價值。所以,這是我們工具箱中一個非常重要的工具,我再怎麼強調都不為過,這是 Cameco 擁有的非常獨特的現有優勢,是其他公司所沒有的,我們將繼續利用這一優勢。必要時可充分利用,歸根結底,這是因為鈾只能在少數幾個地方儲存,而我們恰好擁有幾個獲得許可的設施,因此這給我們帶來了巨大的優勢。
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Okay, thanks for that and I have a a follow-up that's sort of on a different topic. The US seems to be taking a a a much more of a leadership role when we think about, the demand outlook, and do you think that we're close to a market where chemicals production decisions may be viewed differently on pricing dynamics if that material is sourced from within the US versus non-US production. Or do you still see this as a one price homogeneous markets.
好的,謝謝。我還有一個後續問題,是關於另一個主題的。當我們考慮需求前景時,美國似乎正在扮演更重要的領導角色。您是否認為,如果化學品的生產原料來自美國境內而非美國境外,那麼市場對化學品生產決策在定價動態方面的看法可能會有所不同?還是您仍然認為這是一個價格單一的同質市場?
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah Ralph, that is a great question, and I would say this market already is recognizing the value of incumbent producers in particular sovereign safe jurisdictions, and what I mean there, I'm just going to illustrate it by the long-term price of uranium. We see a long-term price around $84 US. Per pound and I, folks have heard me say before, when you're, when you look at that long-term price, remember all you're looking at is the information that's collected from those who are willing to fix a portion of their forward sales. Market related contracts don't inform that long-term price.
是的,拉爾夫,這是一個很好的問題。我認為,這個市場已經認識到現有生產商的價值,尤其是在主權安全地區。我舉個例子來說明我的意思,那就是鈾的長期價格。我們認為長期價格在 84 美元左右。每磅的價格,正如我之前所說,當你查看長期價格時,請記住,你所看到的只是那些願意鎖定一部分遠期銷售的人所收集的資訊。市場相關合約無法反映長期價格。
We know as Cameco we can do better than today's long-term price, if we were fixing a portion of our supply going forward.
我們 Cameco 知道,如果我們能鎖定未來部分供應,我們就能獲得比現在更好的長期價格。
Given that that long-term price is an average, it must mean that somebody is fixing below that $84 clearly indicating that Cameco is capable of driving premiums in the market. So I think that type of, market.
鑑於長期價格是一個平均值,這必然意味著有人以低於 84 美元的價格進行定價,這清楚地表明 Cameco 有能力在市場上推高溢價。所以我認為,這種類型的市場。
Pricing dynamic is already occurring. I think some jurisdictions are having to discount around that. Unfortunately, when the price reporters then report, they like to report the lowest offered as opposed to, where the demand is actually sitting. That's just a construct in our market, one that we think is improving, but clearly indicates that stronger pricing is there for not just origin, Ralph.
價格動態變化已經開始顯現。我認為有些地區不得不對此做出相應的調整。不幸的是,當價格報告員進行報告時,他們喜歡報告最低報價,而不是實際的需求價格。這只是我們市場中的一個概念,我們認為它正在改善,但這清楚地表明,更強大的定價不僅僅取決於產地,拉爾夫。
But the quality of the supplier, and when we're dealing with a counterparty they know Cameco has never missed a delivery of uranium, and that's worth a lot.
但是供應商的品質很重要,當我們與交易對手打交道時,他們知道 Cameco 從未錯過鈾的交付,這非常有價值。
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Ralph Profiti - Analyst
Those are helpful answers.
這些回答很有幫助。
Thank you to both.
謝謝你們兩位。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks for your questions, Ralph.
好的,謝謝你的提問,拉爾夫。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Brian J. Lee with Goldman Sachs.
(操作說明)布萊恩·J·李,高盛集團。
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions and, condolences on your Blue Jays. What a great series. But, on the flip side, kudos on the Westinghouse, Cameco, Brookfield, US government deal. I think, a lot of folks are trying to H1 in on some of the details here. Not sure what you can share here, but. I'll do my best, with regards to the sort of $80 billion agreement here with the government, I guess there's a lot of questions just around how the mechanics are going to work, it sounds like the government will be responsible for ultimately, reaching the FID go no go decision.
嘿,各位,早安。感謝您回答問題,並對藍鳥的遭遇表示慰問。真是一部精彩的劇集。但另一方面,西屋電氣、卡梅科電氣、布魯克菲爾德電氣和美國政府達成的協議值得讚揚。我認為,很多人都想抓住這裡的一些細節不放。不知道您在這裡可以分享什麼,但是…我會盡我所能。關於與政府達成的這項價值 800 億美元的協議,我想有很多問題都圍繞著具體的運作機制,聽起來政府最終將負責做出最終投資決定(FID)。
And then maybe thoughts around including the the required IPO type of event if that were to come to fruition between now and January 29th, and also what the 20% equity stake from the government and the $17.5 billion of cash distributions, just maybe walk us through some of the mechanics of how those pieces came together, but just starting from the top of the funnel maybe first, just, government FID, what, what's involved there? What are the milestones, between now and then.
然後,或許可以考慮一下,如果從現在到 1 月 29 日之間真的需要 IPO,那麼政府 20% 的股權和 175 億美元的現金分配又該如何安排?或許可以帶我們了解這些環節是如何運作的,但或許可以從最開始說起,首先是政府的最終投資決定 (FID),這其中涉及哪些方面?從現在到那時,有哪些里程碑事件?
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Brian, I'll just say at a high level, we're absolutely delighted to be part of this, deal with our partner Brooke Field all came together, about a week ago, I guess a week ago, Tuesday, October twenty-eighth, we signed the deal. I was with a bunch of CEOs from US utilities yesterday, and it's really, we've been waiting to kickstart the nuclear build in the United States and really around the world, and I think this does it. Grant and Dominic have been. Very involved with Brookfield and the US government and others and putting it together. So Grant, maybe you can just walk through what we know today. Obviously we're early in the process and we're working out the details, but what we know today, Grant.
布萊恩,我只想概括地說,我們非常高興能參與其中。與我們的合作夥伴 Brooke Field 達成的協議大約在一周前,我猜是一周前,10 月 28 日星期二,我們簽署了協議。昨天我和一群美國公用事業公司的執行長在一起,我們一直在等待啟動美國乃至全世界的核能建設,我認為這項措施實現了這一目標。格蘭特和多米尼克一直都在。與布魯克菲爾德公司、美國政府及其他機構密切合作,共同促成此事。格蘭特,或許你可以簡單介紹一下我們目前所了解的情況。顯然,我們還處於早期階段,還在敲定細節,但就我們目前所知,格蘭特。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yes, what this reflects obviously is a very clear signal from the US government that it is time.
是的,這顯然反映出美國政府發出了一個非常明確的訊號:時機已到。
We were, I think, struggling as an industry in the United States to find liftoff conditions. What is going to get reactors going and not just a first two pack, but a meaningful order of reactors that would stimulate sufficiently the supply chain in the US and quite frankly globally. And I think the US government just recognized that for it to have energy security, for it to take advantage of the tremendous technology that is the AP 1,000, it would need to be a bigger investment than just sort of the next two. So what the US government has done is committed to step in and be that stimulant, if you will. Their commitment is to facilitate the financing, and just on that point, I would say we are assured there are a number of options that are available to the US government in order to fill a. Facilitate that financing that ranges from, direct support through known structures like perhaps the Department of Energy's loan program office all the way through to project financing dollars that may come from other jurisdictions. We're assured that there is a lot of interest in investing this minimum $80 billion in order to begin the process. The next step then. Is to figure out what an order looks like, when are we at FID, and that is part of the next steps of coming to a definitive agreement. We've got a lot of things to work out, we are just absolutely delighted by the fact that this is entirely performance based and, in order for the US government. To meet its vesting interests in this potential par partnership, they have to deliver, and they have to deliver fast, and we just think that's a wonderful alignment for Westinghouse and the US government and therefore for Brookfield and Caco with the US government.
我認為,當時美國整個產業都在努力尋找起飛的條件。什麼才能真正啟動反應爐項目,而不僅僅是最初的兩台反應堆,而是能夠充分刺激美國乃至全球供應鏈的大量反應爐訂單?我認為美國政府已經意識到,為了確保能源安全,為了充分利用 AP 1000 這項龐大的技術,需要進行比接下來兩年更大的投資。因此,美國政府已經承諾介入並發揮刺激作用。他們的承諾是促進融資,就這一點而言,我可以肯定地說,美國政府有很多選擇來填補資金缺口。促進融資,融資方式包括透過已知的機構(例如能源部貸款計畫辦公室)提供直接支持,以及從其他司法管轄區獲得的專案融資資金。我們確信,各方對投資至少 800 億美元以啟動這一進程表現出濃厚的興趣。那麼,下一步是什麼呢?就是要弄清楚訂單是什麼樣子,我們什麼時候才能達到最終投資決定 (FID),這是達成最終協議的下一步步驟之一。我們還有很多事情需要解決,但我們非常高興的是,這完全是基於績效的,並且符合美國政府的要求。為了滿足其在這種潛在的合夥關係中的既得利益,他們必須交付成果,而且必須快速交付,我們認為這對西屋電氣和美國政府來說是一個絕佳的契合點,因此對布魯克菲爾德和卡科公司與美國政府來說也是如此。
After that, if we see FID on this $80 billion minimum worth of spend stimulating the supply chain, getting the reactor technology going, identifying sites, removing any of the impediments to approvals and licenses and permits.
之後,如果我們看到對這筆至少價值 800 億美元的支出做出最終投資決定,這將刺激供應鏈,推動反應器技術發展,確定廠址,消除審批、許可和執照方面的任何障礙。
Then the US government will have gone a long way to meet its vesting, condition, and that $80 billion then allows it to consider, participating, in the Westinghouse business. I'm just going to draw a point on that. The Westinghouse business only, it, it's not a participation interest in either Cameco or Brookfield. It is only in Westinghouse. And the mechanics of that are very simple. Westinghouse is worth a lot more today than when Brookfield and Cameco acquired it. And that's recognized in that first claim of $17.5 billion of distributions. They go to the current owners. That is, that is the value that we have been building and we have been investing in. The US government support then would then participate beyond that. And so if you use the example of a $30 billion underwritten value at the time of an IPO decision, you have the potential for the US government to be an 8% holder in Westinghouse. The difference between $17.5 billion. And $30 billion which by the way, seems like a very reasonable participation. That means they have performed. That means they have invested $80 billion. That means reactors are under construction in the United States, which are then creating a platform for a global deployment of this leading AP 1,000 technology.
這樣一來,美國政府就離實現其既得利益條件邁出了重要一步,而這 800 億美元將使其能夠考慮參與西屋公司的業務。我只想就此畫個圖。僅是西屋公司的業務,不涉及對卡梅科或布魯克菲爾德的任何股權。只有在西屋公司才有。其原理非常簡單。如今西屋電氣的價值遠高於布魯克菲爾德和卡梅科收購它時的價值。而這在第一筆175億美元的分配款項中得到了體現。它們歸現在的所有者所有。也就是說,這就是我們一直在創造和投資的價值。屆時,美國政府的支持將進一步介入。因此,如果以首次公開發行 (IPO) 時承銷價值為 300 億美元為例,美國政府有可能成為西屋電氣 8% 的股東。兩者之間的差額為 175 億美元。還有 300 億美元,順便說一句,這似乎是一個非常合理的參與金額。這意味著他們已經完成了表演。這意味著他們已經投資了800億美元。這意味著美國正在建造反應堆,這將為這項領先的 AP 1000 技術在全球範圍內的部署創造平台。
And I always think of it as that means the pie is growing and everybody's slice has just gotten a heck of a lot bigger. So this is set up to be a performance-based, fully aligned partnership designed to create energy security in the United States and be the platform for energy security elsewhere.
我總是覺得這意味著蛋糕越做越大,每個人分到的那份也都大大增加了。因此,這是一個以績效為基礎、完全一致的合作夥伴關係,旨在為美國創造能源安全,並成為其他地區能源安全的平台。
A lot still to be decided, source of funding, site selection, obviously we have definitive agreements to complete.
還有很多事情需要決定,例如資金來源、選址,顯然我們還有一些最終協議需要完成。
But I just want everybody to understand the main takeaway is the United States has decided it is time to start building AP 1000s, and we are very excited about that super comprehensive.
但我只想讓大家明白,最重要的一點是,美國已經決定開始建立 AP 1000 系統,我們對此感到非常興奮。
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Thank you for all that color. Maybe just a second one and I'll pass it on a bit more mundane, on the pricing side, we've seen term pricing, up four bucks a pound or so in the past couple of months for you 308 after being flat, for most of the year. Be curious what you're seeing in terms of contracting activity, maybe expectations year into year end given what's been a relatively soft volume environment year-to-date and then. General thoughts around the appetite amongst customers for higher floor ceilings, given these recent moves in pricing.
謝謝你帶來如此絢麗的色彩。也許再來一個,我會把它轉達給更平凡的東西。在定價方面,我們看到,在過去的幾個月裡,308 的長期定價上漲了每英鎊 4 美元左右,而此前一年中的大部分時間價格都保持不變。我很好奇在合約活動方面你看到了什麼,考慮到今年迄今為止相對疲軟的交易量環境,或許可以對年底的預期進行一些分析。鑑於最近的價格變動,關於客戶對更高樓層天花板的需求的總體看法。
Thank you guys.
謝謝大家。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
We continue to be very constructive on where the uranium price needs to go. It is at the heart of the fact that we remain in supply discipline. We are not in a mood to ramp up production because we think price needs to reflect.
我們對鈾價的未來走向仍然持非常建設性的看法。這是我們維持供應紀律的核心。我們目前沒有提高產量的意願,因為我們認為價格需要反映這一點。
More fundamental production economics than we're seeing today. I point to the World Nuclear Association's recent fuel report. That fuel report indicates an even bigger GAAP between where demand is going, demand that has just been absolutely strengthened by the US government partnership that we just talked about. Where that demand is going and where the supply is in fact going, I would also point out when we look at something like that GAAP in the World Nuclear fuel report, we believe it actually dramatically understates demand. It does not include the demand that we just talked about that is not baked into there. It does not include. The demand that a lot of people are ascribing ascribing to nuclear through AI, and this is a really important point to make.
比我們今天看到的更根本的生產經濟學。我指的是世界核能協會最近發布的燃料報告。這份燃油報告表明,需求走向與GAAP之間的差距更大,而我們剛才談到的美國政府合作已經絕對加強了這種需求。關於需求走向和供應實際走向,我還想指出,當我們查看世界核燃料報告中的 GAAP 等指標時,我們認為它實際上嚴重低估了需求。它不包括我們剛才討論的、尚未納入其中的需求。它不包含。很多人將需求歸因於人工智慧對核能的影響,這一點非常重要。
The fundamental investment opportunity in uranium does not require the AI buildout. It is, that is an absolute accelerant to it, but It is just requires the known reactor fleet plus the reactors under construction to continue.
鈾礦的根本投資機會並不需要人工智慧的建構。的確,這絕對是加速這一進程的因素,但這需要現有反應器群加上正在建造中的反應器繼續運作。
And then we look at the supply side and we say it's grossly overstated. We say that the fuel market report includes stuff that will not be in the market in that time frame and will not be in the market at an $84 long-term price. So we look at these fundamentals, Brian, and we say now is the time to remain disciplined.
然後我們從供給面來看,認為供給面被嚴重誇大了。我們說,燃油市場報告包含了在那個時間段內不會出現在市場上的東西,而且長期價格不會達到每加侖 84 美元。所以,布萊恩,我們從這些基本面來看,認為現在是保持自律的時候了。
Allow that market to express more demand because that expression of demand is ultimately going to push prices to where they need to be. To incent the next tranche of material that's going to begin to fill that demand. This looks very good to an incumbent uranium producer who not only has tier one assets but is a globally recognized tier one supplier. That term market is just not there yet. A couple of factors for that on the uranium side.
讓市場表達更多需求,因為需求的表達最終會將價格推向應有的水平。為了激勵下一批物資的到來,以滿足這項需求。對於一家擁有頂級資產且是全球公認的頂級供應商的現有鈾生產商來說,這看起來非常有利。那個術語市場目前還沒有形成。鈾礦方面有兩個因素導致了這種情況。
I would say there remains a little bit more focus downstream in the services, especially in enrichment, than there is in uranium. And on the supply side, like, let's just be really clear, one of the headwinds on the demand formation for uranium is all of the hyper promises that are coming from those who have projects.
我認為,下游服務領域,特別是濃縮領域,比鈾礦領域更受關注。而在供應方面,我們必須明確一點,鈾需求形成的一大阻力是那些擁有計畫的人所做的各種誇大其詞的承諾。
That have never delivered before, have never done quite frankly anything before that are promising huge volumes of uranium in a very short period of time. If you're a fuel buyer, you're sitting there wondering if that material is really coming to the market, and it's giving you a little bit of pause. So there are those on the supply side.
那些以前從未交付過產品,坦白說以前從未做過任何承諾在很短時間內生產大量鈾的事情的公司。如果你是燃料採購商,你一定會想,這種材料是否真的會進入市場,這會讓你有點猶豫。所以,供應方也存在這些問題。
That that are responsible for some of the hesitation that we're seeing among fuel buyers to bring big uranium demand. Now, ultimately this is a good thing because those projects will not be proven out, they will not perform well, and then we're going to see more panic buying in the market, and that's going to discover probably even higher prices. Now is the time to remain disciplined, and that's exactly what you're seeing from us.
這些因素導致我們看到燃料買家對大量鈾需求猶豫不決。從長遠來看,這是一件好事,因為這些項目未經檢驗,表現不佳,然後我們將看到市場上出現更多恐慌性購買,這可能會推高價格。現在正是保持自律的時候,而這正是你們從我們身上看到的。
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Brian J. Lee - Analyst
Appreciate it thanks a lot guys.
非常感謝!
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Brian.
謝謝你,布萊恩。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Alexander Pearce, BMO.
(操作員說明)Alexander Pearce,BMO。
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Great, morning all. So you touched on the Westinghouse partnership, obviously it does look now like the pipeline.
大家早安。所以你提到了與西屋公司的合作,顯然現在看來確實像管道一樣暢通無阻。
Is accelerating in terms of new builds, maybe you could just touch on, how Westinghouse is set up right now in terms of capacity for new build projects and what kind of investments do you think need to be made in the business obviously to deliver what could be quite a sizable change, in new builds.
如果新建築數量正在加速成長,您能否簡要談談西屋電氣目前在新建築項目產能方面的狀況,以及您認為為了實現新建築數量可能出現的相當大的變化,公司需要進行哪些投資?
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Well Alex, obviously even before this announcement, we had a healthy pipeline of projects. We were just at Vogel yesterday, the two that, the last two that were finished in the US, but if you look, around the world, there are AP 1000s being built today, countries in Eastern Europe that we've been working with that plan to build, and I can't think of a whole lot of countries around the world that aren't looking at new. Nuclear build an AP 1,000 as part of the buildout. And so this has just added accelerant, as Grant said, lighter fluid to to the desire to build new AP-1000s. And so on the on the Westinghouse side, Grant, you can talk about the Energy Systems group.
Alex,很顯然,即使在這個公告發布之前,我們已經有很多項目正在籌備中。我們昨天才去過沃格爾,那裡是美國最後完工的兩架飛機。但如果你放眼全球,你會發現現在世界各地都有AP 1000飛機正在建造,東歐的一些國家也正在按照我們的計畫建造飛機。我想不出世界上有多少國家沒有考慮建造新的飛機。作為建設的一部分,核能建設了 AP 1,000。因此,正如格蘭特所說,這無疑為製造新的 AP-1000 增添了催化劑,就像打火機油一樣。所以,格蘭特,在西屋電氣這邊,你可以談談能源系統集團。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, the key thing to delivering on this kind of vision, Alex, and like Tim said, we were already in flight starting to move forward the the Poland new build, the Bulgaria new build, participate in the Czechia new build. There's a, there's important Westinghouse equipment that goes into that.
是的,Alex,實現這種願景的關鍵在於,就像Tim說的那樣,我們已經開始推進波蘭的新建設、保加利亞的新建設,並參與捷克的新建設。其中用到了很多重要的西屋電氣設備。
At the heart of this.
問題的核心就在於此。
Are three simple concepts. Number one is standardized. Number two is sequence. Number three is simplified. If we get that right, it's not clear what the boundary condition is for how much you can put in the pipeline. If you go back to the buildout in the 60s and 70s, you had a situation where Canada was bringing on a reactor a year. The United States was bringing on seven reactors a year. France was bringing on eight reactors a year, and of course now we're seeing the Chinese starting 10 reactors a year. So if you standardize, you sequence, and you simplify, it's not really clear that there's a boundary condition on doing that. If you just look at Westinghouse today, there is capacity to start a number of reactors as long as those long lead items are flowing and you're not doing a shotgun start on every program and you're sequencing it properly, you can then start to build up that supply chain, that stimulated supply chain, then allows you to lever to obviously a new outcome or a higher level of orders. We're we're not there yet. But I'm going to go back to the comments I made about the US government partnership. The key to the $80 billion investment was the understanding that it's not sufficient just to start with the next two. You have to start with a bigger order, because that bigger order is what creates the critical mass to get the supply chain going. And then once that's going, we will understand better what are the investments that need to be made in order to bring that along, but we feel very comfortable, that Westinghouse is in a position to start, 22 packs a year and put that into the system as long as we standardize, sequence, and simplify.
這是三個簡單的概念。第一點是標準化的。第二點是序列。第三題已簡化。如果我們理解正確,那麼管道中可以輸送多少液體的邊界條件就不明確了。如果回顧上世紀六、七十年代的建設時期,你會發現當時加拿大每年都在新建一座反應爐。美國當時每年新增七個反應器。法國每年新增 8 個反應堆,而現在我們看到中國每年新增 10 個反應爐。所以,如果你進行標準化、排序和簡化,那麼這樣做是否有邊界條件就並不明確了。如果你看看今天的西屋公司,只要那些長週期物料供應充足,並且你不是每個項目都倉促啟動,而是按正確的順序進行,那麼你就有能力啟動多個反應堆,然後你就可以開始建立供應鏈,這條受刺激的供應鏈,然後你就可以利用它獲得新的成果或更高水平的訂單。我們還沒到那一步。但我還是要回到我之前對美國政府夥伴關係的評論上來。這項 800 億美元投資的關鍵在於認識到,僅僅從接下來的兩個項目開始是不夠的。你必須從較大的訂單開始,因為較大的訂單才能形成關鍵規模,從而啟動供應鏈。一旦這個計畫啟動,我們就能更了解需要進行哪些投資才能實現這一目標,但我們非常有信心,只要我們實現標準化、排序和簡化,西屋公司就能以每年 22 包的速度啟動並將其納入系統。
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Okay, thank you, for those comments. Maybe I can just, ask a question around conversion now and obviously.
好的,謝謝你的評論。也許我現在可以問一個關於轉換的問題,這當然是顯而易見的。
You've mentioned, Tim mentioned that the interest is increasing in the rest of the fuel cycle too.
正如你和提姆所提到的,人們對燃料循環其他環節的興趣也不斷增加。
Is the timing now right to restart conversion capacity at Springfield, or, is there actually any, additional upside potential in your Canadian operations too?
現在是否是重啟斯普林菲爾德工廠產能的合適時機?或者,你們在加拿大的業務是否還有額外的成長潛力?
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, conversion is a very interesting market and I think it's illustrative of what's coming into the uranium space.
是的,鈾礦轉化市場非常有趣,我認為它能說明鈾礦領域未來的發展趨勢。
The issue for making a decision around bringing new capacity back at something like Springfield's, is, you may be surprised to hear this, Alex, it's not price. I mean, conversion price is at historic levels, and we could probably find a handful of utilities globally that would be willing to underwrite the restart of Springfields at a premium to today's historic price.
對於像斯普林菲爾德這樣的地方來說,決定是否恢復產能的關鍵問題在於,你可能會驚訝地發現,亞歷克斯,問題的關鍵不在於價格。我的意思是,轉換價格處於歷史水平,我們或許能在全球範圍內找到一些公用事業公司願意以高於當前歷史價格的價格為斯普林菲爾德的重啟提供擔保。
But they want to do it for a very short duration contract. Utilities are very smart. They want to stimulate capacity to come into the market, and then they want to reprice it when there's more capacity in the market. You and I would do the exact same thing if we were a fuel buyer. That would be our job. And so for us it's about blending appropriate pricing with appropriate tenor. What we want to see is a longer-term commitment to restarting something like Springfield's, and the example I will use is when our friends at Constellation made the decision to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center at Three Mile Island, they didn't do it on spec. They didn't do it for a three year contract. They did it for a 20 year contract with Microsoft that was above market to support the restart of infrastructure. The nuclear fuel cycle should not be looked at any differently. For us to restart infrastructure that's in care and maintenance, we need to see pricing as well as tenor that supports that capacity. And the lesson learned in uranium. Is you only get one chance to bring new capacity into the market. So we, we're hearing some very silly statements from some saying, well, we, we're going to contract, but we're only going to contract for three years and then we'll roll that contract over to a higher price afterwards, and you absolutely won't, because now you're competing with your own capacity. So, in this market, driven by long-term value creation. You need price and you need tenor, and on the conversion side, price is there, tenor's not there yet, although I'm, it's feeling pretty constructive that we're going to get there.
但他們希望簽訂一份期限非常短的合約。公用事業公司非常聰明。他們希望刺激產能進入市場,然後在市場產能增加時重新定價。如果你我都是燃料買家,我們也會做同樣的事情。那就是我們的工作。所以對我們來說,關鍵在於將合適的定價與合適的風格結合。我們希望看到的是,對重啟像斯普林菲爾德這樣的計畫做出更長期的承諾。我舉個例子,當我們的朋友 Constellation 決定重啟三里島的 Crane 清潔能源中心時,他們並不是抱著投機的心態去做的。他們不是為了簽三年合約才這麼做的。他們與微軟簽訂了一份為期 20 年、價格高於市場價的合同,以支持基礎設施的重啟。核燃料循環不應被區別對待。要重啟處於維護保養狀態的基礎設施,我們需要看到能夠支援該容量的價格和期限。以及從鈾礦中學到的教訓。你只有一次機會將新的產能引入市場。所以,我們聽到一些人發表了一些非常愚蠢的言論,說,我們會簽訂合同,但只會簽訂三年,之後我們會以更高的價格續簽合同,你們絕對不會這樣做,因為現在你們是在和自己的產能競爭。因此,在這個市場中,長期價值創造是驅動力。你需要價格,你需要男高音,在轉換方面,價格是有的,男高音還沒有,雖然我覺得我們最終會實現這個目標,而且這種感覺相當有建設性。
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Alexander Pearce - Analyst
Okay, thanks, Grant, thanks, Tim.
好的,謝謝格蘭特,謝謝提姆。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for your questions, Alex.
謝謝你的提問,Alex。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.
(操作員指示)Andrew Wong,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Andrew Wong - Analyst
Andrew Wong - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So the US government partnership, it's for at least $80 billion of investments which supports, let's say 80 to 10, 81,000, but the wording of at least implies there's potential upside to that. And Grant, I think in your, just your previous commentary on the previous question kind of touches on the longer-term buildup potential here, so. The longer-term goal for the US and other countries is to triple nuclear capacity. Is there a scenario where the US government supports 20 or 30 or maybe more reactors, and has anything like that been part of discussions, or maybe did that US government partnership spark any conversations with other potential partners on a bigger buildout?
嘿,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。因此,美國政府的合作至少涉及 800 億美元的投資,這可以支持 80 到 10,81,000 人,但「至少」一詞暗示著還有潛在的成長空間。格蘭特,我認為你之前對上一個問題的評論已經觸及了這裡長期發展的潛力,所以。美國和其他國家的長期目標是將核能產能提高三倍。美國政府是否有可能支持建造 20 或 30 個甚至更多反應爐?類似的情況是否曾被納入討論範圍?或者,美國政府的這種合作是否引發了與其他潛在合作夥伴就更大規模建設進行的對話?
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Well, Andrew, great question. This has just been priming the well. Of course we've been talking to all of the utilities, I think, in the US about nuclear for years now, and it really got spruced up earlier this year. I think it was May 23rd that the President put out his four executive orders on nuclear, calling for 10 new ones to be started. By 2030, which we're now working on, and there's a plan behind those, and then to have, I think 400 gigawatts of nuclear by by 2050. And so I think he's serious about it. We're seeing the indications of this deal we put together last week with Brookfield and the US government and now we're yesterday, Grant and I talking to US utilities, all of them super interested and I'd say excited. About this, saying, hey, how do we get involved and how's it all going? So lots of work to do over the next days and weeks.
安德魯,問得好。這只是打個基礎而已。當然,我認為我們多年來一直在與美國所有的公用事業公司討論核能問題,而且今年早些時候,這個問題得到了真正的重視。我認為總統是在 5 月 23 日發布了四項關於核能的行政命令,要求啟動 10 個新的核子計畫。到 2030 年,我們正在努力實現這個目標,背後有一個計劃,然後我認為到 2050 年將擁有 400 吉瓦的核能。所以我認為他是認真的。我們看到了上週與布魯克菲爾德和美國政府達成的協議的成效,昨天我和格蘭特與美國公用事業公司進行了洽談,他們都表現出了極大的興趣,甚至可以說非常興奮。關於這件事,我們可以問問大家:嘿,我們如何參與?進展如何?所以接下來幾天幾週有很多工作要做。
First to get more details on how we're putting it together and then pulling together the utilities and starting to drive it forward. So the answer to your question is yes, we're just getting warmed up and I think there's a 94 units in, as Grant said in the US. They did that before, they've done it before and this administration and and these utilities want to do it again and the economy needs it, so.
首先要詳細了解我們是如何把它組裝起來的,然後整合各種資源,開始進行這個專案。所以,你問題的答案是肯定的,我們才剛開始,我認為目前已經有 94 個單元投入使用,正如 Grant 在美國所說的那樣。他們以前就這麼做過,而且本屆政府和這些公用事業公司還想再這麼做,經濟也需要這樣做,所以。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Andrew, we did use the term minimum, and you see that throughout the agreement.
安德魯,我們確實使用了「最低限度」這個詞,你在整個協議中都能看到這一點。
I like to think about this as the stimulant for launch conditions in the United States. It is absolutely reasonable to assume that.
我認為這是刺激美國市場啟動條件的因素。這樣的假設完全合理。
That once financing is arranged and permitting and licensing is approved and long lead items are ordered under this structure, that the order book, among the traditional utility base, both within the United States and beyond is going to grow because. This is at the heart of eliminating what the main barrier was, which is that next of a kind, being that next two pack or the next two pack after that.
一旦融資安排妥當,許可和執照獲得批准,並且根據這種結構訂購了長週期產品,那麼在美國境內外的傳統公用事業客戶群中的訂單量將會增長,因為…這正是消除主要障礙的核心所在,即下一個同類產品,也就是接下來的兩件裝或再接下來的兩件裝。
We never had a problem engaging people for 56, and beyond. It was just starting the process, and the US government has stepped in. To overcome that really big hurdle to being the next of a kind, to being the next up, it's promising a bigger investment than I think anybody was anticipating.
我們從未遇到過無法吸引人們參與 56 年及以後的活動的問題。事情才剛開始,美國政府就介入了。要克服成為下一個同類產品、成為下一個佼佼者的巨大障礙,它需要比任何人預期的都要大的投資。
And we do expect that it will create some followership. There may be other countries interested in foreign direct investment in the United States that might want to partner in a very similar fashion.
我們預計它會吸引一些追隨者。可能還有其他國家對在美國進行外國直接投資感興趣,並希望以非常類似的方式合作。
We've seen early indications. Of a willingness to engage in this kind of project financing for critical infrastructure at a time when the US government is prepared to support the leading gigawatt scale technology. So we didn't do this as a deal that, now we're done with energy systems. We did this as the deal to kickstart. The very exciting opportunity for energy systems, which as everybody remembers, we essentially valued at 0 when we acquired Westinghouse. So the upside to the acquisition case is enormous.
我們已經看到了一些早期跡象。在美國政府準備支持領先的千兆瓦級技術之際,願意為關鍵基礎設施進行此類專案融資。所以,我們達成這項協議並不是說,現在我們已經徹底告別了能源系統。我們這樣做是為了啟動這個專案。對於能源系統而言,這是一個非常令人興奮的機會。如大家所知,當我們收購西屋電氣時,我們對能源系統的價值基本上為 0。因此,此次收購案的優勢非常巨大。
Andrew Wong - Analyst
Andrew Wong - Analyst
That's great, and then just maybe on just switching over to enrichment.
那太好了,然後或許就可以轉到強化訓練了。
TLE recently achieved TRL-6 and had it independently verified. So what are the next steps from here? But what does that TRL-6 demonstration tell us about the economics of GLE? And is this the, does this mark the start of chemical's option, to increase its ownership stake in GLE?
TLE 最近達到了 TRL-6 級別,並已通過獨立驗證。那麼,下一步該怎麼做呢?但是,這項 TRL-6 演示告訴我們 GLE 的經濟效益如何呢?這是否標誌著該化學品公司開始選擇增持 GLE 的股份?
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, good question. I would characterize TRL-6 a little bit different, and this is a structure that goes all the way to technology readiness level 9, and we're at 6, and 6 means that we can verifiably ensure that we can enrich uranium to the nuclear reliability level, that 99.96 sigma level of reliability. So effectively it means the technology risk is removed from GLE.
嗯,問得好。我對 TRL-6 的描述略有不同,這是一個一直延伸到技術成熟度 9 級的結構,而我們目前處於 6 級,6 級意味著我們可以驗證地確保能夠將鈾濃縮到核可靠性水平,即 99.96 σ 的可靠性水平。因此,這實際上意味著GLE的技術風險已經消除。
Levels 78, and 79 are where you prove up that the project risk can be minimized. So there's still more work to do ultimately we wouldn't have pushed it to TRL-6 if we didn't think there was an economic opportunity. You continue to evaluate that as you go, but now the real attention is taking a verifiable technology. And figuring out the project delivery of it. It's an important stage in the nuclear industry because as we talked about with conversion and just talked about with uranium, you sell this capacity forward under long-term contract. You don't build an enrichment plant and then start knocking on people's doors and trying to sell enrichment supply because just like uranium, just like conversion, there's no in-year demand for this stuff. So building it for a spot market exposure is about the stupidest thing you could do. So what you want to do is start building your capacity into long-term contracts. TRL-6 is a really important milestone because now we can engage more meaningfully with utilities about the support case for GLE and we've removed the technology risk. Yes, there's still some project risk in it, but we've removed the technology risk. So it really is an important milestone. It absolutely. We're proud of the team. We're proud of their achievement, and we continue to believe that this is a world that wants not only supplier diversification and enrichment, but technology diversification and wants it from a proven reliable supplier like Cameco.
第 78 級和第 79 級是證明專案風險可以最小化的地方。所以還有很多工作要做,歸根結底,如果我們認為沒有經濟機會,我們也不會將其推進到 TRL-6 級別。你會在過程中不斷評估這一點,但現在真正的重點是採用可驗證的技術。並確定專案的交付方式。這是核工業的一個重要階段,因為正如我們剛才談到的轉換和鈾一樣,你需要根據長期合約提前出售這些產能。你不會建造一座濃縮工廠,然後挨家挨戶敲門推銷濃縮產品,因為就像鈾一樣,就像轉化一樣,這種東西在一年內根本沒有需求。所以,為了現貨市場曝險而建構這個平台,簡直是最愚蠢的做法。所以你要做的就是開始逐步建立長期合約的能力。TRL-6 是一個非常重要的里程碑,因為現在我們可以與公用事業公司就 GLE 的支援案例進行更有意義的溝通,我們已經消除了技術風險。是的,專案仍然存在一些風險,但我們已經消除了技術風險。所以這確實是一個重要的里程碑。絕對是。我們為團隊感到驕傲。我們為他們的成就感到自豪,我們仍然相信,這個世界不僅需要供應商多元化和豐富化,還需要技術多元化,並且希望從像 Cameco 這樣久經考驗、值得信賴的供應商那裡獲得這種多元化和技術多元化。
Andrew Wong - Analyst
Andrew Wong - Analyst
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Andrew.
謝謝你,安德魯。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.
(操作說明)Bob Brackett,Bernstein Research。
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Hey, good morning.
嘿,早安。
Before October 28th, you all in Westinghouse had laid out a fairly clear contracting framework around capturing 25% to 40% of the plant cost with EBITDA margins of 10% to 20%. I note you, you've repeated that in your investor deck. Is that a stale framework or should we con continue to think about using that as the framework?
在 10 月 28 日之前,西屋公司的各位已經制定了一個相當明確的合約框架,目標是獲得工廠成本的 25% 到 40%,EBITDA 利潤率為 10% 到 20%。我注意到了,你在投資人簡報中也重複了這一點。這是一個過時的框架嗎?還是我們應該繼續考慮使用它作為框架?
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
We are continuing to use that as the framework subject to the finalization of definitive agreements with the United States, subject to finalization of securing what that financing package is going to look like, where it's going to come from, and subject to the magnitude of initial long lead item orders.
我們將繼續以此為框架,但前提是與美國最終達成協議,最終確定融資方案的形式和來源,以及初始長週期產品訂單的規模。
Why I think that framework remains useful, I'm going to go back to something I said earlier, which is the key to delivering.
至於為什麼我認為這個框架仍然有用,我要回到我之前說過的一點,那就是交付的關鍵。
New nuclear at the gigawatt scale is to standardize the sequence and to simplify. So even if we pull forward the long lead items on a number of critical nuclear components, you still want to sequence the reactor builds accordingly, much like the United Arab Emirates did partnering with the Koreans on the Baraka site, for example, much like Bruce Power and OPG sequenced the refurbishments, the major component replacements in Ontario. So it is still a very good framework to use, subject to figuring out exactly how we're going to bind this agreement with the US government and the flow and the rate at which the financing is coming.
吉瓦級新核能的目標是規範流程並簡化操作。因此,即使我們提前交付一些關鍵核部件的長週期部件,你仍然需要相應地安排反應器的建造順序,就像阿拉伯聯合酋長國與韓國在巴拉卡核電站合作那樣,就像布魯斯電力公司和安大略省電力公司安排翻新和主要部件更換的順序一樣。所以,這仍然是一個非常好的框架,但前提是我們要弄清楚如何與美國政府達成協議,以及資金的流動和速度。
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Very clear, and the follow-up would be the the participation infrastructure allows the government to receive 20% of cash distributions exceeding 17.5 billion from Westinghouse. If I think about Westinghouse's free cash flow, year-to-date, it's around $433 million. You've gotten a distribution of maybe 350 million. Am I comparing apples to apples that we should think about maybe Westinghouse's free cash flow as feeding the cash distribution and therefore, there's a lot of room before we get to a 17.5 billion threshold.
非常清楚,後續措施是,參與機制將允許政府從西屋公司獲得超過 175 億美元的現金分配的 20%。如果我看一下西屋電氣今年迄今為止的自由現金流,大約是 4.33 億美元。你們可能分到了 3.5 億。我這樣比較是否恰當?我們或許應該考慮西屋電氣的自由現金流是否能為現金分配提供資金,因此,在達到 175 億美元的門檻之前,還有很大的提升空間。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
You're absolutely thinking about it right, and then some of the things that would affect that, of course, are the speed at which the projects are advanced in the United States, therefore, the speed at which the procurement part of the long lead items kicks in, and quite frankly, the success of the Koreans in building APR 1400s in other markets triggered.
你考慮得完全正確,當然,一些會影響這一點的因素包括美國專案推進的速度,因此,長週期物料採購部分啟動的速度,坦白說,還有韓國在其他市場成功建造 APR 1400 的案例。
Royalties that come back to Westinghouse, all of those things would be upsides to the case, but you're thinking about the right way.
西屋公司獲得的版稅,所有這些都是有利的,但你的想法是對的。
Westinghouse is worth a lot more than when we acquired it, and that's what's being reflected in the 17.5 billion distribution claim for Cameco and Brookfield prior to the US participating in anything.
西屋電氣的價值比我們收購它時高得多,這反映在 Cameco 和 Brookfield 在美國參與任何項目之前所獲得的 175 億美元的分配索賠中。
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Bob Brackett - Analyst
Very clever. Thanks for that.
非常聰明。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Craig Hutchison, TD Cowen.
(操作員說明)Craig Hutchison,TD Cowen。
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Hi, good morning guys.
大家好,早安。
I just wanted to circle back on the partnership with the US government. Obviously, congratulations, a huge deal to see. Is the expectation that the US government will own these reactors longer-term? Are they just financing them? If they are owning them longer-term, is there a possibility at some point they could sell these to utilities? Just kind of trying to understand that. And then maybe it's a follow-up question. I know it must be a difficult question to ask, but if the government is spearheading the financing and the permitting, can you give us any kind of rough goalpost in terms of how long you think it would take to permit a new AP 1,000 US?
我只是想再談談與美國政府的合作事宜。當然,恭喜!這可是件大事。人們是否預期美國政府將長期擁有這些反應爐?他們只是在為他們提供資金嗎?如果他們長期持有這些資產,那麼在某個時候是否有可能將這些資產出售給公用事業公司?我只是想弄明白這一點。然後,或許還會有一個後續問題。我知道這個問題很難問出口,但如果政府牽頭提供資金和審批,您能否大致估算一下,您認為批准一個新的 AP 1,000 US 需要多長時間?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, 22 really big questions there. I characterize this, in answer to an earlier question as really being a catalyst. The US government stepping in and saying it is time, it's time to get going. So I think there we have to have a range of options in mind. One that goes from, the US government simply finances somebody else's build, own and operate to the US government does its own build, own, operate, or something in between where it's built. Own and then transfer to a utility. I think all options are on the table because the driver here is to get 24 hour baseload carbon free electrons onto the onto the market as soon as possible in order to meet the onshoring demand and meet the AIG.
是的,這可是22個非常重要的問題。之前有人問過我這個問題,我把這種情況描述為一種催化劑。美國政府介入並表示,時機已到,是時候採取行動了。所以我覺得我們必須考慮一系列的方案。其中一種情況是,美國政府只是資助別人建造、擁有和運營,而另一種情況是,美國政府自己建造、擁有和運營,或介於兩者之間。擁有所有權,然後轉讓給公用事業公司。我認為所有方案都在考慮範圍內,因為目前的驅動因素是盡快將 24 小時基本負載無碳電力投放市場,以滿足國內需求並滿足 AIG 的要求。
So I think there's going to be a number of structures which is going to make for a very exciting part of this project, figuring out how to structure it. It's a little bit tied to your second question, which is how should we think about permitting. Remember one of the executive orders back on May 23rd actually spoke to using federal lands to deploy new nuclear and doing that under a federal exemption or a federal domain exemption. So there could be possibilities of accelerated licensing and permitting, or, we could take a page out of the DOE liftoff report from last year and simply look at the sites that already have pads that are approved for large nuclear power plants that weren't built on as a consequence of the slowdown after Three Mile Island. So I guess what I, I'm trying to say, Craig, is there's a lot of optionality here, but what was holding everything up was who was going to finance that next of a kind, and that's what's been unlocked with this deal. But I think, if there are, eight plants representing four large Nuclear power plants as as the first initial launch. There could be four different commercial structures to go along with it, and that's just the reality that we're all getting prepared for and designing for and figuring out how to bring the right partnerships and the right coordination together to achieve that.
所以我認為,這個專案將會有許多不同的結構,而如何建構這些結構將是這個專案非常令人興奮的部分。這和你的第二個問題有點關係,那就是我們該如何看待許可問題。還記得 5 月 23 日的行政命令嗎?該命令實際上涉及利用聯邦土地部署新的核能,並且是在聯邦豁免或聯邦領域豁免的情況下進行的。因此,或許可以加快許可和審批流程;或者,我們可以藉鏡去年能源部發布的發射報告,直接查看那些已經擁有大型核電站建設用地但因三里島核事故後的經濟放緩而未能建成的核電站選址。所以我想說的是,克雷格,這裡有很多選擇,但阻礙一切進展的是誰來為下一代產品提供資金,而這筆交易已經解決了這個問題。但我認為,如果真有的話,那應該是八座工廠,代表四座大型核電廠,作為最初的啟動計畫。可能會有四種不同的商業結構與之配套,而這正是我們所有人都在準備、設計並思考如何建立合適的合作夥伴關係和協調機制來實現這一目標的現實。
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Okay perfect and I guess the AP 300 could also be part of the mix, correct?
好的,完美。我想AP 300也可以加入其中,對嗎?
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
It absolutely could. Remember, one of the most elegant things about the AP 300 is it's part of an AP ecosystem, and if you're a utility and you're looking at new nuclear, the prospect of having a similar or the same instrumentation and control environment, the same fuel and fuel handling environment, essentially the same reactor where up to 85% or 90% of the supply chain is identical. That is a pretty compelling business case, especially if we're going to underwrite that ecosystem with the buildout of AP 1000s.
完全有可能。請記住,AP 300 最優雅的特點之一是它是 AP 生態系統的一部分。如果您是一家公用事業公司,正在考慮新建核電廠,那麼擁有類似或相同的儀器和控制環境、相同的燃料和燃料處理環境,本質上是相同的反應堆,其中高達 85% 或 90% 的供應鏈都是相同的,這將非常有利。這是一個相當有說服力的商業理由,特別是如果我們要透過部署 AP 1000 來支撐這個生態系統的話。
It's our priority here is AP 1,000 just given the scale of the demand.
鑑於需求規模,我們目前的首要任務是確保 AP 1,000 的供應。
But we've always said that the best way to sell an AP 300 is to start building AP 1000s.
但我們一直認為,銷售 AP 300 的最佳方法是開始生產 AP 1000。
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Craig Hutchison - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks guys.
好的,太好了,謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Gordon Johnson, GLJ Research.
(操作說明)戈登·約翰遜,GLJ 研究公司。
Gordon Johnson - Analyst
Gordon Johnson - Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. I appreciate it.
各位,謝謝你們回答這個問題。謝謝。
I just want to revisit. I know there's been a lot of questions about the deal with the US government, but I just want to ask maybe the question from a different angle. So, looking at what Arriva did roughly 8 years ago when it spun out its fuel cycle business and then looking at, you're in Brookfield 49% ownership of Westinghouse, in the deal you announced with the US, clearly you're not getting the (Inaudible) up front. But clearly it looks like every AP 1,000 built in the US directly benefits your downstream, earnings, fuel fabrication, service parts, etc.
我只是想重溫一下。我知道大家對與美國政府達成的協議有很多疑問,但我只是想從另一個角度提出這個問題。所以,看看 Arriva 大約 8 年前剝離其燃料循環業務時的做法,再看看 Brookfield 持有 Westinghouse 49% 的股份,在你宣布與美國達成的交易中,顯然你沒有預先獲得(聽不清)。但顯然,在美國生產的每一台 AP 1000 都能直接惠及您的下游產業,例如收益、燃料製造、服務零件等等。
So.
所以。
Is it possible that you guys could potentially look at, look to spin out Westinghouse given the interest and hype around AI and the potential risk further down the line of the US deal and then I have a follow-up. .
鑑於人工智慧領域的興趣和熱度,以及未來與美國達成協議可能存在的風險,你們是否有可能考慮將西屋電氣分拆出去?我還有一個後續問題。。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Thanks Gordon, I'll jump in here and and I would say.
謝謝戈登,我也來說兩句話。
Agree and echo one of the points you made.
我同意並同意你提出的其中一點。
At the time of us acquiring Westinghouse, folks will remember that we talked about its alignment with what we do because we love strategic assets. We love assets that are tier one, they're proven, they're scarce, they're absolutely mission critical, and Westinghouse had those assets on the fuel side.
大家應該還記得,在我們收購西屋電氣的時候,我們曾談到它與我們業務的契合度,因為我們熱愛戰略資產。我們喜歡一流的資產,它們經過驗證,稀缺,而且對任務至關重要,而西屋公司在燃料方面就擁有這些資產。
And so it just fit beautifully with McArthur River, Cigar Lake, Key Lake, and all the assets that Cameco already had. It was a bundling of just the world's best nuclear fuel assets together in a joint venture, which we absolutely loved. Why did we love the energy systems? Because of the AP 1,000. A reactor where the design was locked down, the fuel was locked down, the licensing risk was locked down, the regulatory risk had been dealt with by the good folks at Southern Company who had built two of them, and it really was just down to project risk. So Westinghouse had everything we liked, and what we particularly liked was as we grew energy systems, it grew the core of the business. So we are, we have a business model where the growth of energy systems actually grows the whole business. In other words, as the US government partnership showed, we can grow our own demand for the core of our business, and that is a great place for us to be and to be in control of. When we think about the value of Westinghouse.
因此,它與麥克阿瑟河、雪茄湖、基湖以及卡梅科公司已有的所有資產完美契合。這是將世界上最好的核燃料資產整合到合資企業中,我們非常喜歡這種模式。我們為什麼如此熱愛能源系統?因為 AP 1,000。反應爐的設計已經確定,燃料已經確定,許可風險已經確定,監管風險也由建造了兩座反應爐的南方公司那些優秀的人們處理好了,剩下的就只是項目風險了。所以西屋公司擁有我們喜歡的一切,我們尤其喜歡的是,隨著能源系統的發展,它的核心業務也隨之發展壯大。所以,我們的商業模式是,能源系統的成長實際上帶動了整個業務的成長。換句話說,正如美國政府的合作所表明的那樣,我們可以增加對我們核心業務的需求,這對我們來說是一個很好的領域,也是我們可以掌控的領域。當我們思考西屋電氣的價值。
We are always looking to make sure there is no trapped value for our shareholders. There is definitely a unique interest in investing just in Westinghouse, and it's hard to, it's Cameco is a funny proxy for that. Brookfield's probably an even funnier proxy to invest in just Westinghouse. So we're always mindful that the last thing we want to have is trapped value within this family of assets that we've put together. To benefit shareholders. So let's just say we're going to keep all options on the table. This partnership agreement does not force us to leave Westinghouse in 2029. We don't have to sell any of our share, or we may if the value of Westinghouse is so significant. Come 2029 when that window opens up and and every option in between, but we will just maximize the optionality for the maximum benefit of Cameco shareholders.
我們始終致力於確保股東的價值不會被埋沒。投資西屋電氣公司確實有其獨特的吸引力,而且很難做到,Cameco 可以作為西屋電氣的一個有趣的替代指標。布魯克菲爾德或許是投資西屋電氣公司更有趣的替代方案。因此,我們始終牢記,我們最不希望看到的就是我們精心構建的這一系列資產中存在價值被困的情況。使股東受益。所以,我們不妨說,我們會把所有選項都考慮在內。這項合作協議並未強制我們在 2029 年離開西屋電氣。我們不必出售任何股份,除非西屋電氣的價值非常巨大,否則我們可能會出售。到 2029 年,當這個機會窗口開啟之時,以及在此期間的每一個選擇,我們都會最大限度地利用這些選擇,以最大程度地造福 Cameco 的股東。
Gordon Johnson - Analyst
Gordon Johnson - Analyst
That's helpful. That's very helpful.
那很有幫助。那很有幫助。
Thank you. And then just one last one for me, I would like to know, and I'm getting a lot of these questions from investors, when will the market see signs of serious contracting from utilities, like what's the precursor, because that is the precursor for E308 prices to go up. So what signs should we be looking for a serious sign of contracting, long-term contracting from utilities from your standpoint?
謝謝。最後還有一個問題,我也常收到投資人的這類問題:市場何時才能看到公用事業公司嚴重縮減規模的跡象?這是什麼先兆?因為這是 E308 價格上漲的先兆。那麼,從您的角度來看,我們應該關注哪些跡象來判斷公用事業公司是否真的在進行長期合約談判?
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for the Question.
謝謝你的提問。
Thanks, Gordon.
謝謝你,戈登。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grad.
畢業。
ours is a market that has time and time again proven that it does not respond to forward forecasts. It responds to the reality of the contracting environment that it's in conversion is at historic pricing. Because a couple of years ago, so much conversion capacity had been shut in that when utilities went into the market following the Russian invasion of Ukraine looking for conversion, it was not there.
我們的市場已經一次又一次證明,它對前瞻性預測沒有反應。它順應了當前合約環境的現實,其轉換價格處於歷史高點。因為幾年前,大量的轉換產能被關閉,以至於在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後,當公用事業公司進入市場尋找轉換產能時,卻發現根本沒有。
Uranium has not discovered that yet for two main reasons. One, you have a group of uranium producers who have come back to the market, small volumes, but did not do the hard work of building homes for that supply and stuck it into the front end of the market, into the spot market.
鈾尚未被發現,主要有兩個原因。第一,有一群鈾生產商重返市場,產量雖小,但他們沒有努力為這些供應建造儲存設施,而是直接將產品投入了市場的前端,即現貨市場。
Which then allowed traders, intermediaries to compete for some of the long-term demand that was coming into the business. In other words, nobody has shown up yet to contracting uranium and discovered that there isn't a willing counterparty and in some cases a counterparty willing to discount. On the other hand, there are utilities that that are looking at the supply stack. They're looking at the promises of big supply out into the future, and they're saying they're willing to take the chance. So this was my point earlier, Gordon, that there are some utilities who are, who are actually believing some of the definitive feasibility studies that are out there, and they're looking out into a window and they're saying there's going to be a lot of producers. Who haven't done any contracting today, they're going to build big assets and then they're going to be flopping around the market trying to place it, so I might as well take advantage of that.
這樣一來,交易商和中間商就可以競相爭取一些即將進入市場的長期需求。換句話說,還沒有人真正去簽訂鈾礦合同,然後發現沒有願意交易的交易對手,或者在某些情況下,沒有願意打折的交易對手。另一方面,也有一些公用事業公司正在關注供應鏈結構。他們著眼於未來充足的供應前景,並表示願意承擔風險。戈登,這就是我之前的觀點,有些公用事業公司確實相信一些已經公佈的最終可行性研究,他們看著窗外說,將會有很多生產商。今天還沒有簽訂任何合約的人,將會建造大型資產,然後他們會在市場上四處奔波,試圖找到合適的出售地點,所以我不妨利用這一點。
That has not been proven to be a failed strategy yet. So if we want the uranium price to reset like we have in other parts of the supply chain, everybody who's invested in a producer who is undisciplined, who is overpromotional and sensational, needs to tell that management team to understand how the market works and that they're not helping the formation of price in this market.
目前尚未證明這是一種失敗的策略。因此,如果我們希望鈾價像供應鏈其他環節一樣重置,那麼所有投資於缺乏紀律、過度宣傳和譁眾取寵的生產商的人,都需要告訴該生產商的管理團隊,讓他們了解市場是如何運作的,以及他們並沒有幫助市場形成價格。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction) Lawson Winder, Bank of America.
(操作員指示)勞森·溫德,美國銀行。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Thank you very much, operator.
非常感謝接線生。
And, hello, Tim and Grant.
還有,提姆和格蘭特,你們好。
Thank you for your presentation today. Can I just fit in a question on, McArthur River and just how would you handicap the potential for McArthur development delays to then, fall into, to 2026 and impact 206 production and then similar vein, but just looking at Cigar Lake as a potential offset, you, you've highlighted the potential to produce up to an additional 1 million pounds.
感謝您今天的演講。我能否插一個關於麥克阿瑟河的問題?您如何評估麥克阿瑟河開發延誤到 2026 年並影響 206 號礦脈產量的可能性?如果以雪茄湖為例,您強調了其額外增產高達 100 萬磅的潛力。
From Cigar Lake versus the original 2025 guidance of 18 million pounds, 100% basis, what are the factors driving that and could that also show up in 2026?
Cigar Lake 的產量與最初 2025 年的 1,800 萬磅(100% 基準)相比,有哪些因素導致了這種變化?這種變化在 2026 年是否也會發生?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks, Lawson. Great question. Grant was just up there. Grant's, of course, our Chief Operating Officer in addition to everything else he does. So, you just visited MacArthur and had a look underground.
是啊,謝謝你,勞森。問得好。格蘭特剛才就在上面。當然,格蘭特除了擔任其他職務外,也是我們的營運長。所以,你剛剛參觀了麥克阿瑟博物館,還去地下看了看。
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Grant Isaac - President and Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, I did. I was up there, McArthur River, cigar, Rabbit.
是的,我做了。我當時就在那裡,麥克阿瑟河,雪茄,兔子。
And Lawson, I, it just was a good reminder for me just how extraordinary our assets are and how strong our incumbent position is and how grateful we are that we don't have a greenfield project that we have to TRY to build right now, because it's difficult, it's difficult to build new, it's difficult to execute on that, and all of that will eventually be reflected in uranium pricing. It's too early for us to put out our guidance for next year. We normally do that in our Q4, so that will come out in February. When you think about McArthur River or you think about Cigar Lake or any of our assets, you can never divorce our operating decisions from our strategy. And as I've said a number of times already today, our strategy is that we remain in supply discipline. Because as the last question reflected, this market has not even brought replacement rate demand into the uranium segment yet, so we're not going to front run that.
勞森,這讓我再次意識到我們的資產有多麼非凡,我們現有的市場地位有多麼強大,以及我們多麼慶幸現在沒有一個全新的項目需要去嘗試建設,因為這很困難,建設新項目很困難,執行起來也很困難,所有這些最終都會反映在鈾價上。現在發布明年的業績指引還為時過早。我們通常會在第四季度完成這項工作,所以會在二月公佈。當你想到麥克阿瑟河、雪茄湖或我們的任何資產時,你永遠無法將我們的營運決策與我們的策略割裂開來。正如我今天已經多次提到的,我們的策略是保持供應紀律。因為正如上一個問題所反映的那樣,這個市場甚至還沒有將替代率需求引入鈾領域,所以我們不會搶先一步。
That means we're not going to make heroic decisions with our operating assets when the market is not yet valuing it. So we produce for our committed sales. We look at McArthur River, we see that there have been some challenges setting up the mining areas, not mining, but setting up the mining areas. It's complicated mining. It requires a certain. Amount of freeze infrastructure before we go in and develop underneath that freezing infrastructure. So there have been delays setting it up, and we're just in a position of supply discipline where we're not going to take any heroic actions. We're just going to pace this out at the pace that the market is signaling, whether that affects 2026 or not is too early to tell, but it would require. A change of our strategy which would require more demand in the market for us to do anything different than we're currently doing now. A responsible uranium producer has a strategy to mine, mill, and market uranium as a united strategy, not, you just produce as much as you can and you hope to God the market is there for it. That is a failed strategy.
這意味著,當市場尚未對我們的營運資產進行估值時,我們不會做出冒險的決定。所以,我們只生產滿足已承諾的銷售額。我們以麥克阿瑟河為例,發現設立礦區遇到了一些挑戰,不是採礦本身,而是設立礦區。採礦很複雜。它需要一定的條件。在我們進入並開發這些凍結的基礎設施之前,需要凍結大量的基礎設施。因此,安裝工作出現了延誤,而我們目前處於供應紀律的約束之下,不會採取任何冒險行動。我們將按照市場發出的信號來推進這項工作,至於這是否會影響到 2026 年,現在判斷還為時過早,但這需要時間。改變我們的策略需要市場有更大的需求,我們才會採取與目前做法不同的策略。負責任的鈾生產商會制定一個統一的策略,將鈾的開採、加工和銷售結合起來,而不是盡可能多地生產,然後祈禱上帝保佑市場會接受它。那是一個失敗的策略。
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Have a great day. Thanks a lot.
祝你有美好的一天。多謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction).
(操作說明)
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Tim Gitzel - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, well, thank you, operator, and thanks to everybody who joined us today, we appreciate it. As Cory noted in the intro, if you have any detailed follow-up questions related to our Third quarter results or any questions that we didn't get to answer today, please send those in, we'll be absolutely happy to address those directly.
是的,謝謝接線生,也謝謝今天所有參與的朋友們,我們非常感激。正如 Cory 在引言中提到的,如果您對我們第三季度的業績有任何詳細的後續問題,或者有任何我們今天沒有回答的問題,請發送給我們,我們非常樂意直接解答這些問題。
Just to wrap it up, we're seeing continued momentum through pro-nuclear government policies, through energy intensive industries, taking action to decarbonize, and to public sentiment around nuclear that is increasingly positive and better informed.
總結起來,我們看到,在支持核能的政府政策、能源密集型產業採取行動實現脫碳以及公眾對核能的態度日益積極和了解得更多等方面,核能發展勢頭持續強勁。
These trends point to a global convergence. Nuclear is essential for safe, constant, secure, and reliable power, and Cameco is exceptionally well placed to deliver on the promises of nuclear.
這些趨勢顯示全球正在趨同。核能對於安全、穩定、可靠的電力供應至關重要,而 Cameco 公司擁有得天獨厚的優勢,能夠兌現核能的承諾。
So thanks again everybody for joining us today. Stay safe and healthy and have a great day. Thanks.
再次感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。注意安全,保持健康,祝你今天過得愉快。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instruction).
(操作說明)