開拓重工 (CAT) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 4Q 2018 Analyst Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2018 年第四季分析師電話會議。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人艾米坎貝爾 (Amy Campbell)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter earnings call. On the call today, I'm pleased to have our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby; our CFO, Andrew Bonfield; and Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed.

謝謝你，凱特。早安，歡迎大家參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我很高興邀請到我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；我們的財務長 Andrew Bonfield；以及金融服務副總裁喬·克里德（Joe Creed）。

Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, and any use of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investor Relations section of our caterpillar.com website.

請記住，本次通話的版權歸卡特彼勒所有，未經卡特彼勒書面同意，嚴禁使用本次通話的任何部分。如果您想要今天的電話會議記錄的副本，我們會將其發佈在 caterpillar.com 網站的投資者關係部分。

This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. Details on the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our filings with the SEC and in our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release.

今天上午，我們將討論前瞻性訊息，其中涉及風險、不確定性和假設，這些資訊可能會導致我們的實際結果與討論的資訊不同。有關單獨或綜合起來可能導致實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的因素的詳細信息，可以在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的財務報告中的前瞻性聲明中找到。

In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning's presentation and in our release, which is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings.

此外，非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天早上簡報的附錄和我們的新聞稿中找到，新聞稿發佈在 caterpillar.com/earnings 上。

And with that, I'll turn the floor over to Jim.

現在，我將發言權交給吉姆。

Thank you, Amy, and good morning. I'd like to begin today by thanking our global team for delivering an outstanding year in 2018. It was the best profit per share performance in our company's history, which allowed us to return $5.8 billion of capital to shareholders.

謝謝你，艾米，早安。今天，首先我想感謝我們的全球團隊在 2018 年所取得的優異成績。這是我們公司歷史上最好的每股獲利表現，使我們能夠向股東返還 58 億美元的資本。

In 2018, we remained focused on making our customers more successful in executing our enterprise strategy, which centers around achieving long-term profitable growth through operational excellence and investing in services and expanded offerings.

2018年，我們仍然致力於幫助客戶更成功地執行我們的企業策略，該策略的核心是透過卓越營運以及對服務和擴展產品的投資實現長期獲利成長。

Revenue for the year was up 20% to $54.7 billion as favorable economic conditions drove growth across many of our end markets. We delivered record adjusted profit per share of $11.22 and strong operating cash flow of $6.3 billion, which allowed us to repurchase $3.8 billion of company stock, raise the dividend by 10% and make a discretionary pension contribution of $1 billion.

由於有利的經濟條件推動了我們許多終端市場的成長，今年的收入成長了 20%，達到 547 億美元。我們實現了創紀錄的每股 11.22 美元的調整後利潤和 63 億美元的強勁營運現金流，這使我們能夠回購 38 億美元的公司股票，將股息提高 10%，並作出 10 億美元的可自由支配的退休金供款。

2018 marked the 25th consecutive year we paid higher dividends to our shareholders, earning us recognition as a member of the elite Aristocrats Dividend Fund.

2018 年是我們連續第 25 年向股東支付更高的股息，並因此獲得精英貴族股息基金成員的認可。

Our fourth quarter adjusted operating margin was 13.8%. This was lower than our expectations and was impacted primarily by write-offs at Cat Financial and higher-than-expected material and freight costs.

我們第四季的調整後營業利益率為 13.8%。這低於我們的預期，主要受到 Cat Financial 的註銷以及高於預期的材料和運費成本的影響。

However, our full year 2018 adjusted operating margin was 15.9%, 340 basis points higher than in 2017 and solidly in line with our Investor Day target range. We're continuing to execute our enterprise strategy with the Operating & Execution Model guiding our investments to those areas with the best opportunity for future profitable growth.

然而，我們 2018 年全年調整後的營業利潤率為 15.9%，比 2017 年高出 340 個基點，與我們的投資者日目標範圍完全一致。我們將繼續執行我們的企業策略，透過營運和執行模式引導我們的投資走向未來獲利成長最有可能的領域。

I've talked frequently about 2 components of the strategy: expanded offerings and services. Let me walk you through a few successes from them last year in both of those areas.

我經常談論該策略的兩個組成部分：擴大產品和服務。讓我向您介紹去年他們在這兩個領域取得的一些成功。

On our October call, I talked about our expanded offerings of next-generation articulated trucks and mini excavators. We've continued to roll out next-gen machines, including the 120 motor grader that offers up to 15% greater fuel efficiency and saves customers up to 15% in maintenance costs with new filtration technology.

在十月的電話會議上，我談到了我們擴大的下一代鉸接式卡車和小型挖土機的產品範圍。我們不斷推出下一代機器，包括 120 平地機，它透過新的過濾技術可提高高達 15% 的燃油效率並為客戶節省高達 15% 的維護成本。

In December, we announced the next-generation 36-ton class excavators. These machines increase operating efficiency, lower fuel and maintenance costs and improve operator comfort.

12月，我們發布了下一代36噸級挖土機。這些機器提高了運作效率，降低了燃料和維護成本，並提高了操作員的舒適度。

We also launched our next-generation D6 dozer, offering customers the world's first high drive Electric Drive dozer, with 35% better fuel efficiency and increased agility compared to the previous electric drive models.

我們也推出了新一代 D6 推土機，為客戶提供世界上第一台高驅動電驅動推土機，與先前的電力驅動機型相比，燃油效率提高了 35%，靈活性也更高。

We are expanding our engine offerings as well, including the CG Series of generator sets, increasing power output, offering higher reliability and improving return on investment for our customers as they operate on natural gas and biogas, making them more economical.

我們也在擴大我們的引擎產品範圍，包括 CG 系列發電機組，以提高功率輸出，提供更高的可靠性，並提高使用天然氣和沼氣客戶的投資報酬率，使其更具經濟性。

Thanks to the combination of Caterpillar technology and the customer's initiative, the world's first cruise ship powered by liquefied natural gas set sail in 2018. This is another great example of an expanded offering. We offered our customer an integrated solution utilizing our MaK dual fuel engines to operate -- to fully operate this cruise ship using LNG.

在卡特彼勒技術與客戶倡議的結合下，世界上第一艘以液化天然氣為動力的郵輪於 2018 年啟航。這是擴展產品範圍的另一個很好的例子。我們為客戶提供了一個綜合解決方案，利用我們的 MaK 雙燃料引擎來運行這艘遊輪——完全使用 LNG 來運行。

Now a few examples of services, including technology solutions that support our dealers and customers at the initial point of sale and in the aftermarket. As of November, Cat mining trucks using our MineStar Command for hauling autonomous technology reached a milestone of moving 1 billion tons of material. We deployed our first 6 commercial autonomous trucks in 2013, and the fleet now has grown to more than 150. Six different mining companies are operating Command for hauling on sites in Australia and North and South America. We are working with customers who operate mixed fleets and have successfully deployed our autonomous technology to retrofit competitor haul trucks. We're leveraging our success with autonomy and are collaborating with the customer to pilot remote control operator stations for landfill operations, which could transform, even revolutionize, many aspects of the landfill industry.

現在給出一些服務的例子，包括在初始銷售點和售後市場支援我們的經銷商和客戶的技術解決方案。截至 11 月，使用我們的 MineStar Command 自動運輸技術的 Cat 採礦卡車已達到運輸 10 億噸物料的里程碑。我們在 2013 年部署了首批 6 輛商用自動駕駛卡車，現在車隊已增至 150 多輛。有六家不同的礦業公司正在澳洲、北美和南美的礦場使用 Command 進行運輸。我們正在與營運混合車隊的客戶合作，並已成功部署我們的自動駕駛技術來改裝競爭對手的自卸卡車。我們正在利用自主性方面的成功並與客戶合作試行垃圾掩埋場營運的遠端控制操作站，這可能會改變甚至徹底改變垃圾掩埋場產業的許多方面。

We've also introduced an equipment management app that allows our customers to monitor fleet data, request parts and service, and connect with their dealer via mobile devices. These are a few of the many examples of our global team helping our customers be more successful, working with Caterpillar than with any of our competitors.

我們還推出了一款設備管理應用程序，讓我們的客戶能夠監控車隊數據、請求零件和服務，並透過行動裝置與經銷商聯繫。這些只是我們的全球團隊幫助客戶取得更大成功的眾多例子中的幾個，我們與卡特彼勒的合作比與我們的任何競爭對手的合作都要多。

Now for the outlook. Following a record year in 2018, we expect further growth in profit per share in 2019 to a range of $11.75 to $12.75. Our outlook assumes a modest sales increase based on the fundamentals of our diverse end markets as well as macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. We will continue to focus on operational excellence, including cost discipline, while investing in expanded offerings and services to drive long-term profitable growth.

現在討論一下前景。繼 2018 年創紀錄之後，我們預計 2019 年每股利潤將進一步增長至 11.75 美元至 12.75 美元之間。根據我們多樣化的終端市場的基本面以及宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境，我們的前景假設銷售額將適度成長。我們將繼續注重卓越運營，包括成本控制，同時投資擴大產品和服務以推動長期獲利成長。

In Construction Industries, we believe a healthy U.S. economy, continued pipeline construction and state and local funding for infrastructure development will be favorable in 2019. Latin America is expected to continue with the recovery, but demand will remain at relatively low levels. In the Europe, Africa and Middle East region, demand remains in steady, but political and economic uncertainties exist.

在建築業，我們認為健康的美國經濟、持續的管道建設以及州和地方對基礎設施發展的資助將對2019年有利。預計拉丁美洲將繼續復甦，但需求仍將保持在相對較低的水平。在歐洲、非洲和中東地區，需求保持穩定，但存在政治和經濟不確定性。

In Asia Pacific, we expect construction growth in countries outside of China. Within China, the industry is very dynamic, and there are a variety of forecasts. We will continue to monitor the situation, but as of now, we are forecasting the overall China market to be roughly flat in 2019, following 2 years of significant growth. China represents about 10% to 15% of our total construction industry sales and about 5% to 10% of total Caterpillar sales and revenues.

在亞太地區，我們預計中國以外的國家的建築業將會成長。在中國，該行業非常活躍，並且有各種各樣的預測。我們將繼續關注情況，但截至目前，我們預測經過兩年的大幅成長後，2019 年中國整體市場將基本持平。中國市場約占我們建築業總銷售額的 10% 至 15%，約佔卡特彼勒總銷售額和收入的 5% 至 10%。

For Resource Industries, we believe commodity prices will remain supportive for investment, and mining companies will increase their CapEx budgets in 2019. Demand for heavy construction and quarry and aggregate equipment should also remain strong.

對於資源產業，我們認為大宗商品價格將繼續支持投資，礦業公司將在 2019 年增加其資本支出預算。對重型建築、採石和骨材設備的需求也應保持強勁。

In Energy & Transportation, we expect the recent volatility in oil prices and takeaway constraints in the Permian to negatively impact demand for well servicing equipment in the first part of the year. Gas compression should remain strong. Demand for power generation equipment should continue positive momentum that started in 2018.

在能源和運輸方面，我們預期近期油價波動和二疊紀盆地外送限制將對今年上半年的油井服務設備需求產生負面影響。氣體壓縮應保持強勁。發電設備的需求應能延續 2018 年開始的正面動能。

For industrial engines, the strong U.S. economy remains a positive for demand, but we expect some headwinds in EAME.

對於工業引擎而言，強勁的美國經濟仍對需求產生正面影響，但我們預期歐洲、中東和非洲地區將面臨一些阻力。

Finally, in transportation, we expect our rail business to improve in 2019.

最後，在交通運輸方面，我們預計我們的鐵路業務將在 2019 年改善。

In summary, 2018 was an excellent year for Caterpillar and one that demonstrates the power of our strategy. We achieved record profit per share, returned significant capital to shareholders and continued investment in expanded offerings and services to drive long-term profitable growth.

總而言之，2018 年對卡特彼勒來說是輝煌的一年，展現了我們策略的威力。我們實現了創紀錄的每股利潤，向股東返還了大量資本，並繼續投資擴大產品和服務，以推動長期獲利成長。

Once again, I'd like to thank our global team. Now that 2018 is in the record books, we are focused on delivering another great year. We continue to feel good about our business and have increased our profit outlook for 2019.

我要再次感謝我們的全球團隊。2018 年已載入史冊，我們致力於再創輝煌。我們對我們的業務持續感到樂觀，並提高了2019年的利潤預期。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

說完這些，我會把麥克風交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。

This year's record profits and strong cash flows are a clear reflection of the hard work and cost discipline that stems from the company's focus on delivering our strategy using the Operating & Execution Model.

今年創紀錄的利潤和強勁的現金流清楚地反映了公司致力於利用營運和執行模式實現策略的辛勤工作和成本控制。

Today I'm going to walk through at a high level both the quarter and full year 2019 results, and then I will discuss our outlook and highlight some of the key -- our key financial assumptions for 2019. So please turn to Slide 5 to look at the results for Q4.

今天，我將概括介紹 2019 年季度和全年業績，然後我將討論我們的展望並強調 2019 年的一些關鍵財務假設。請翻到投影片 5 檢視第四季的結果。

Sales and revenues were $14.3 billion, up 11% from last year, with continued growth across all regions and in all 3 primary segments. Increased amount for Resource Industries machines, higher sales in North America for construction equipment and higher demand for reciprocating engines to support well servicing and gas compression applications in North America were all significant drivers of this increase.

銷售和收入為 143 億美元，比去年增長 11%，所有地區和三個主要部門都持續成長。資源工業機械銷售的增加、北美建築設備銷售的增加以及北美對支援油井維修和氣體壓縮應用的往復式引擎的需求增加都是推動這一增長的重要因素。

Fourth quarter profit per share of $1.78 and adjusted profit per share of $2.55 were both up from a year ago. You will recall that in 2017, profit per share was impacted by U.S. tax reform. The 18% increase to adjusted profit per share year-over-year was largely driven by the higher sales volume along with continued cost discipline.

第四季每股獲利 1.78 美元，調整後每股獲利 2.55 美元，均較去年同期成長。您會記得，2017年每股獲利受到了美國稅改的影響。調整後每股盈餘較去年同期成長18%，主要得益於銷售量增加以及持續的成本控制。

If you move to Slide 6, I will walk through the 36% increase in operating profit. As you can see from the chart, the operating profit contribution of the higher sales volume was most of the $496 million operating profit increase in the quarter. Price realization was $179 million or about 1% higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Positive price realization was offset by higher manufacturing costs, largely due to higher material and freight costs as steel prices, tariffs and supply chain inefficiencies continued to impact our results.

如果您轉到投影片 6，我將介紹營業利潤 36% 的成長。從圖表中可以看出，銷售量增加帶來的營業利潤貢獻佔本季 4.96 億美元營業利潤增幅的大部分。實現價格為 1.79 億美元，比去年第四季高出約 1%。積極的價格實現被更高的製造成本所抵消，這主要是由於鋼材價格、關稅和供應鏈效率低下導致材料和運費成本上漲，從而繼續影響我們的業績。

Financial Products had a $73 million negative impact on operating profits for the quarter. I will walk through this in more detail when I cover that segment.

金融產品對本季的營業利潤產生了 7,300 萬美元的負面影響。當我講到該部分時我將更詳細地討論這一點。

Lastly, restructuring costs were favorable by $144 million as restructuring actions continued to ramp down and are expected to return to normalized levels next year, which is why we will no longer exclude them from the adjusted profit per share calculation.

最後，由於重組行動繼續減少，重組成本有利地增加了 1.44 億美元，預計明年將恢復到正常水平，這就是我們不再將其排除在調整後每股利潤計算之外的原因。

In short, whilst there are several puts and takes, price continues to largely offset cost headwinds. Period costs remain about flat, and higher sales volume remains the primary driver of the improvement in operating profit.

簡而言之，儘管存在一些利弊，但價格仍在很大程度上抵消了成本阻力。期間成本基本上保持平穩，銷售量增加仍是營業利潤改善的主要驅動力。

However, we did see declining operating margins in the quarter versus year-to-date run rates. Whilst the decline in the operating margin is typical in the fourth quarter, this year was greater than we expected and resulted from unplanned allowance increases and write-downs in Financial Products, higher manufacturing costs, including higher material and freight costs, as well as inventory changes. The negative impact from inventory occurred as inventory increased throughout the year and came slightly down in the fourth quarter, resulting in unfavorable operating leverage.

然而，我們確實看到本季的營業利潤率與年初至今的營業利潤率相比有所下降。雖然第四季營業利潤率的下降是正常現象，但今年的降幅超過了我們的預期，原因是計劃外的撥備增加和金融產品的減記、製造成本的提高（包括材料和運費的提高）以及庫存變化。庫存帶來的負面影響是由於庫存全年增加，並在第四季度略有下降，導致不利的經營槓桿。

Now let's look at the performance of each segment in Q4, beginning with Construction Industries on Slide 7. Sales were $5.7 billion, an increase of $410 million or 8%. Construction sales increased in North America and EAME but were down slightly in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The sales increase in North America was $403 million, driving nearly all of the Construction Industries' sales growth for the quarter. We believe the North American economy remains robust, with much of the increase driven by oil and gas-related projects, including pipelines and other nonresidential construction activities.

現在讓我們來看看第四季度每個部門的表現，從幻燈片 7 上的建築業開始。銷售額為 57 億美元，增加 4.1 億美元，增幅 8%。北美和歐洲、非洲和中東地區的建築銷售額有所增加，但亞太地區和拉丁美洲地區的建築銷售額略有下降。北美地區的銷售額增加了 4.03 億美元，幾乎推動了本季建築業的所有銷售成長。我們相信北美經濟仍然強勁，其中大部分成長是由石油和天然氣相關項目推動的，包括管道和其他非住宅建築活動。

In addition to higher end-user demand, dealer inventories also increased in North America. This increase follows several quarters of tight dealer inventory levels, and we now believe -- we believe it is now better aligned to meet current demand.

除了終端用戶需求增加之外，北美經銷商庫存也有所增加。此次成長是在經銷商庫存水準緊張了幾個季度之後實現的，我們現在相信—我們相信現在的庫存水準可以更好地滿足當前的需求。

In EAME, sales in the region were up 9% as strong end user demand in Europe for infrastructure, road and nonresidential construction was partially offset by continued weakness in the Middle East.

在歐洲、非洲和中東地區，該地區的銷售額成長了 9%，因為歐洲終端用戶對基礎設施、道路和非住宅建築的強勁需求被中東持續的疲軟所部分抵消。

Asia Pacific sales were down 4% or $64 million. The sales decline was driven by lower demand in China, partially offset by higher sales in other Asian countries.

亞太地區銷售額下降 4%，即 6,400 萬美元。銷售額下降主要是由於中國需求下降，但其他亞洲國家銷售成長部分抵消了這種影響。

While sales were down in China in the quarter, this was in part due to an unusual seasonal pattern in Q4 2017, with a return to a more normal pattern in 2018. I will remind you how strong the last 2 years have been, with industry sales for 10-ton and above excavators up about 40% in 2018 after doubling in 2017.

雖然本季中國市場的銷售額有所下降，但部分原因是 2017 年第四季出現了異常的季節性模式，而 2018 年又恢復了正常的模式。我要提醒大家的是，過去兩年行業表現有多強勁，繼 2017 年翻一番之後，2018 年 10 噸及以上挖掘機的行業銷量又增長了約 40%。

Lastly, several South -- Latin American countries continued to experience economic challenges. Sales were down $18 million or about 5% for the region.

最後，幾個南拉丁美洲國家繼續面臨經濟挑戰。該地區的銷售額下降了 1800 萬美元，降幅約 5%。

Turning to profit. CI segment profit was about flat versus a year ago, with an operating margin of 14.8%, down 100 basis points. The favorable impact of higher price realization and improved sales volume were about offset by higher material, labor and freight costs as well as adverse variable manufacturing costs.

轉變為獲利。CI部門利潤與去年同期基本持平，營業利益率為14.8%，下降100個基點。價格上漲和銷售量增加帶來的有利影響被材料、勞動力和運費成本的上升以及不利的變動製造成本所抵消。

The sequential decline in operating margins from the third quarter run rate was largely driven by high material costs and higher variable manufacturing costs.

營業利潤率較第三季季減，主要是由於材料成本和變動製造成本上升所致。

Construction Industries backlog was up for the quarter and from a year ago as higher production levels supported in increasing order rates. Most CI equipment remains on managed distribution.

由於生產水準提高帶動訂單率上升，建築業積壓訂單量本季和去年同期均有所增加。大多數 CI 裝置仍處於託管分佈狀態。

Now let's go to Slide 8 and look at Resource Industries. RI sales were $2.8 billion, up 21% from the fourth quarter 2017. Higher sales in the quarter were driven by robust demand from heavy construction and quarry and aggregate customers as well as higher shipments of machines to mining customers as mining companies increased capital expenditures. Demand for aftermarket parts to overhaul and maintain equipment remained robust in the quarter.

現在我們來看投影片 8，看看資源產業。RI 銷售額為 28 億美元，較 2017 年第四季成長 21%。本季銷售額的成長主要得益於重型建築、採石場和骨材客戶的強勁需求，以及由於礦業公司增加資本支出導致向礦業客戶的機器出貨量增加。本季對設備檢修和維護的售後零件需求依然強勁。

The decline in Resource Industries backlog was the result of several factors, including the lumpiness of mining orders and an increase in dealer inventory. Based on activities we are seeing in the market, we expect the slowdown in orders to be temporary and are expecting higher mining CapEx in 2019 to drive higher new equipment sales for the segment.

資源產業積壓訂單的下降是多種因素造成的，包括採礦訂單的不穩定性以及經銷商庫存的增加。根據我們在市場中看到的活動，我們預計訂單放緩只是暫時的，並預計 2019 年採礦資本支出將增加，從而推動該部門新設備銷售增加。

Segment profit of $400 million was up an impressive 90% versus the fourth quarter of last year. Segment operating margin improved 14.3%, up 520 basis from 2017. RI's improved performance and margin expansion was primarily due to higher sales, the operating leverage gained through several years of significant restructuring actions and the team's continued cost discipline. These gains were partially offset by higher material and freight costs in the quarter.

該部門利潤達 4 億美元，較去年第四季大幅成長 90%。分部營業利益率提升 14.3%，較 2017 年上升 520 個基點。RI 業績改善和利潤率擴大主要得益於銷售成長、透過數年重大重組行動獲得的經營槓桿以及團隊持續的成本控制。這些收益被本季材料和運費上漲部分抵銷。

Now let's turn to Slide 9, where we will discuss Energy & Transportation. E&T sales in the fourth quarter was $6.3 billion, 11% higher than the same quarter last year. Sales into oil and gas applications were up by $222 million or 15% as strength in onshore activity in North America for reciprocating gas compression and well servicing applications continued. Sales for turbines and turbine-related services were about flat.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 9，討論能源與交通。第四季電子與技術銷售額為63億美元，較去年同期成長11%。由於北美陸上往復式氣體壓縮和井服務應用活動的持續強勁，石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售額增長了 2.22 億美元，即 15%。渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的銷售額基本上持平。

Power generation sales increased by $211 million or 20%, driven primarily by sales of reciprocating engines to support data center and other large power generation projects.

發電銷售額增加了 2.11 億美元，即 20%，主要得益於支援資料中心和其他大型發電項目的往復式引擎的銷售。

Industrial application sales were about flat, with higher sales in North America and Asia Pacific, about offset by lower sales in Latin America and EAME.

工業應用銷售額基本上持平，北美和亞太地區的銷售額有所增加，但拉丁美洲和歐洲、非洲和中東地區的銷售額卻下降。

Transportation sales were up by 10%, driven primarily by our acquisition of 2 rail services businesses in January 2018.

運輸銷售額成長了 10%，主要原因是我們在 2018 年 1 月收購了兩家鐵路服務業務。

Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was $1.08 billion, up $205 million or 23% from the fourth quarter of last year. The segment margin improved by 170 basis points to 17.2%. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to the higher sales volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, including freight. E&T's backlog was down from the third quarter but up when compared to the fourth quarter 2017. The growth in the backlog year-over-year is primarily attributed to higher turbine and reciprocating engine demand. About half the backlog decline in the quarter was related to large shipments for both reset engines and turbines. Another half resulted from the slowdown of orders to support oil and gas applications in light of recent oil price volatility.

能源與運輸部門利潤為 10.8 億美元，較去年第四季增加 2.05 億美元，成長 23%。該部門利潤率提高了170個基點，達到17.2%。E&T 的利潤成長主要得益於銷售量的增加，但部分被運費等製造成本的增加所抵銷。E&T 的積壓訂單量較第三季有所下降，但與 2017 年第四季相比有所上升。積壓訂單年增率主要歸因於渦輪機和往復式引擎需求的增加。本季積壓訂單下降約有一半與重置引擎和渦輪機的大量出貨有關。另一半則是由於近期油價波動導致支持石油和天然氣應用的訂單放緩。

Please move to Slide 10, and I'll walk through what caused the decline in Financial Products' profitability in the quarter. Financial Products fourth quarter profit was $29 million, down $204 million from Q4 2017. More than 85% of the unfavorable change was due to the impacts from equity securities in the Insurance Services investment portfolio and continued weakness with a small number of counts in the Cat Power Finance portfolio.

請轉到投影片 10，我將介紹導致本季金融產品獲利能力下降的原因。金融產品第四季獲利 2,900 萬美元，較 2017 年第四季下降 2.04 億美元。超過 85% 的不利變化是由於保險服務投資組合中的股權證券的影響以及 Cat Power Finance 投資組合中少數計數的持續疲軟造成的。

The unfavorable impact from Insurance Services was more than half of the change and was due to a $44 million mark-to-market loss in the fourth quarter of 2018 combined with the absence of a $68 million investment gain from the fourth quarter of 2017.

保險服務帶來的不利影響佔變化的一半以上，這是由於 2018 年第四季的 4,400 萬美元的市價損失，加上 2017 年第四季 6,800 萬美元的投資收益的缺失造成的。

Excluding these noncore impacts that are not indicative of the profit from ongoing business, Insurance Services would have been profitable with operating margin performance consistent with historical averages.

排除這些不能反映持續經營利潤的非核心影響，保險服務業務將實現盈利，且營業利潤率表現與歷史平均水平一致。

The unfavorable change from the Cat Power Finance portfolio was due to an increase in the provision for credit losses, primarily from a $72 million unfavorable impact due to an increase in the allowance rate and an increase in write-offs of $13 million.

Cat Power Finance 投資組合的不利變化是由於信貸損失準備金增加，主要是由於撥備率增加和註銷增加 1,300 萬美元而產生的 7,200 萬美元的不利影響。

Cat Financial's core asset portfolio continues to perform well. Excluding Cat Power Finance, Cat Financial's key credit quality metrics are in line with historical averages for past dues, write-offs and the allowance rate. A strategic assessment of Cat Power Finance was conducted in early 2018, which resulted in changes to the risk management of the portfolio. This includes working down the balance of old loans to reduce exposure, and that work has substantially progressed. We have also significantly reduced our risk exposure going forward and [have timed] our lending criteria to reduce risk.

Cat Financial 的核心資產組合持續表現良好。除 Cat Power Finance 外，Cat Financial 的主要信用品質指標與逾期款項、註銷款項和準備金率的歷史平均值一致。2018 年初對 Cat Power Finance 進行了策略評估，導致投資組合的風險管理髮生了變化。其中包括減少舊貸款餘額以降低風險敞口，這項工作已取得實質進展。我們也大幅降低了未來的風險敞口，並調整了我們的貸款標準以降低風險。

Now let's quickly recap the year on Slide 11. As we look back, 2018 was a year of solid strategy execution, production increases across most of our product lines, disciplined cost control, investments in profitable growth initiatives and record profit per share.

現在讓我們在第 11 張投影片上快速回顧這一年。回顧過去，2018 年是策略執行紮實的一年，我們大部分產品線的產量都有所增加，成本控制嚴密，盈利性增長計劃得到投資，每股利潤創下新高。

For the year, sales and revenue of $54.7 billion were up 20% from 2017. Profit per share for the year -- full year was $10.26 versus $1.26 in 2017. Adjusted profit per share was $11.22, up 63% from 2017's adjusted profit per share of $6.88.

全年銷售額和收入達 547 億美元，較 2017 年成長 20%。全年每股利潤－全年為 10.26 美元，2017 年為 1.26 美元。調整後每股獲利為 11.22 美元，較 2017 年調整後每股獲利 6.88 美元成長 63%。

Please turn to Slide 12, and I'll walk you through the operating profit for the full year 2018. Operating profit was $8.3 billion, up 86% from $4.5 billion. The most significant driver to operating margins was higher sales volume, with sales and revenues up about $9.2 billion or 20%, representing sales growth across all 3 primary segments and in all geographic regions.

請翻到第 12 張投影片，我將向您介紹 2018 年全年的營業利潤。營業利潤為 83 億美元，較 45 億美元成長 86%。營業利潤率最重要的推動力是銷售量的增加，銷售額和收入成長約 92 億美元或 20%，代表所有三個主要部門和所有地理區域的銷售額均實現成長。

It was another good year for price realization, up $601 million or 1.2%. For the company, price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases, which were primarily a result of higher material and freight costs.

這又是價格實現的好年頭，上漲了 6.01 億美元，漲幅 1.2%。對於該公司來說，價格實現超過了製造成本的增加，後者主要是由於材料和運費上漲造成的。

Total SG&A and R&D expenses were higher by $249 million, largely driven by increased investments in initiatives to support profitable growth in services and expanded offerings.

總銷售、一般及行政開支和研發開支增加了 2.49 億美元，主要是由於增加了對支持服務盈利增長和擴大產品範圍的舉措的投資。

Financial Products were unfavorable by $141 million, largely due to the absence of gains from the sale of securities, unfavorable impacts from the move to mark-to-market accounting for equity securities and weakness in the Cat Power Finance and Latin American portfolios.

金融產品虧損 1.41 億美元，主要是由於沒有出售證券的收益、股權證券轉向按市價核算的不利影響以及 Cat Power Finance 和拉丁美洲投資組合的疲軟。

Restructuring costs were favorable by $833 million, largely due to the absence of some expenses related to a European facility closure in 2017.

重組成本有利了 8.33 億美元，這主要是由於沒有發生與 2017 年關閉歐洲工廠相關的一些費用。

On Slide 13, you can see the significant improvements in adjusted operating margins across the enterprise in all 3 primary segments. These improvements were largely driven by higher sales volumes and continued cost discipline, which enable us to meet or exceed the ranges we committed to at our 2017 Investor Day.

在投影片 13 上，您可以看到整個企業所有 3 個主要部門的調整後營業利潤率都有顯著提高。這些改進主要得益於更高的銷售量和持續的成本控制，這使我們能夠達到或超過我們在 2017 年投資者日承諾的範圍。

Adjusted operating margin for the enterprise was 15.9%, 340 basis points higher in 2017, with significant improvement in each segment.

企業調整後營業利益率為15.9%，較2017年上漲340個基點，各部門皆有顯著提升。

Now let's move on to Slide 14 to discuss cash flow. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet and $7.9 billion of enterprise cash. ME&T operating cash flow was $2.5 billion in the quarter and $6.3 billion for the full year. And during the year, the board raised the dividend per share by 10%.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 14 來討論現金流。我們以強勁的資產負債表和 79 億美元的企業現金結束了這一財年。ME&T 本季營運現金流為 25 億美元，全年營運現金流為 63 億美元。本年度，董事會將每股股利提高了 10%。

In addition, given our financial position and strong cash flow, we bought back $1.8 billion of company stock in the fourth quarter, bringing our full year stock buyback to $3.8 billion.

此外，鑑於我們的財務狀況和強勁的現金流，我們在第四季度回購了 18 億美元的公司股票，使我們全年的股票回購額達到 38 億美元。

Lastly, we were also able to make a $1 billion discretionary pension contribution in the third quarter.

最後，我們也能夠在第三季繳納 10 億美元的自由支配退休金供款。

In summary, we returned $5.8 billion of capital to shareholders and ended the year with an enterprise cash balance down just slightly from a year ago. It is this strong cash generation, which is a result of the discipline created by the O&E Model, that is one of the most impressive outcomes in 2018. I will update you more on our refreshed capital allocation framework during the 2019 Investor Day we expect to hold in Clayton, North Carolina on May the 2nd.

總而言之，我們向股東返還了 58 億美元的資本，年底的企業現金餘額比一年前略有下降。這種強勁的現金創造能力是 O&E 模型所創造的紀律的結果，也是 2018 年最令人印象深刻的成果之一。我將在 5 月 2 日於北卡羅來納州克萊頓舉行的 2019 年投資者日上向您詳細介紹我們更新後的資本配置框架。

Now let's move to Slide 15, and I will walk through our assumptions for the 2019 outlook. Our profit per share outlook range for 2019 is $11.75 to $12.75. This range reflects profit per share up between 5% and 14% over the 2018 adjusted profit per share.

現在我們轉到投影片 15，我將介紹我們對 2019 年展望的假設。我們對 2019 年每股盈餘的預期範圍為 11.75 美元至 12.75 美元。該範圍反映每股利潤比 2018 年調整後的每股利潤增長 5% 至 14%。

Across the outlook range, we would expect sales to increase versus 2018. Jim has already taken you through each segment's end market assumptions, which are summarized on Slide 4, so I will highlight just a few key financial assumptions.

在整個展望範圍內，我們預計銷售額將比 2018 年增加。吉姆已經帶您了解了每個細分市場的最終市場假設，這些假設在幻燈片 4 中進行了總結，因此我將僅重點介紹幾個關鍵的財務假設。

Short-term incentive compensation will be reset to about $800 million. We expect favorable price realization to be mostly offset by cost headwinds. Restructuring costs are included in the profit per share outlook as they are expected to return to normalized levels in 2019. Financial Products profit should revert to historic norms.

短期激勵薪酬將重設為約8億美元。我們預期有利的價格實現將被成本阻力所抵銷。重組成本已包含在每股利潤預期中，預計 2019 年將恢復至正常水平。金融產品利潤應該恢復到歷史正常水準。

The outlook assumes a lower share count, driven largely by 2018 stock buybacks as well as anticipated additional repurchases for 2019. We expect to repurchase around $750 million of company stock in the first quarter of 2019, with the potential for additional share repurchases based on quarterly cash generation and alignment with our capital allocation priorities.

該展望假設股票數量會減少，主要原因是 2018 年的股票回購以及預計 2019 年的額外回購。我們預計將在 2019 年第一季回購價值約 7.5 億美元的公司股票，並可能根據季度現金產生和與我們的資本配置重點的一致性進行額外的股票回購。

We expect a higher tax rate of 26%, up 2% from 2018. The increase in the tax rate is largely driven by the application of U.S. tax reform provisions to the earnings of certain non-U. S. subsidiaries, which don't have a calendar fiscal year-end. These provisions did not apply to these subsidiaries in 2018.

我們預計稅率將上升至 26%，比 2018 年上漲 2%。稅率的提高主要是由於美國稅改條款對某些非美國公民的收入的應用。美國子公司沒有日曆財務年度結束。該等規定於 2018 年不適用於這些子公司。

And for your cash flow modeling, we expect ME&T capital expenditures, along with Cat inventory, to remain about flat.

對於您的現金流量模型，我們預計 ME&T 資本支出以及 Cat 庫存將保持基本相同。

Finally, let's turn to Slide 16 and recap today's report. 2018 was a great year with record profit per share. Given our solid balance sheet and strong cash flow, we returned $5.8 billion to shareholders while increasing our investments to drive profitable growth in services and expanded offerings.

最後，讓我們翻到第 16 張投影片，回顧一下今天的報告。2018 年是豐收的一年，每股盈餘創下新高。鑑於我們穩健的資產負債表和強勁的現金流，我們向股東返還了 58 億美元，同時增加了投資以推動服務的獲利成長和擴大產品範圍。

Looking ahead to 2019, we are going to continue the execution of our profitable growth strategy, and we are driving to further growth in profit per share.

展望2019年，我們將持續執行獲利成長策略，推動每股獲利進一步成長。

With that, I will hand it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

說完這些，我將把電話交還給艾米，開始電話會議的問答部分。

Thanks, Andrew. Now we will turn it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，安德魯。現在我們將話題轉回給凱特，開始電話會議的問答部分。（操作員指令）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自史蒂芬·福爾克曼（Stephen Volkmann）。

It's Jefferies. I'm hoping we can drill down a little bit more on Construction Industries. That seems to be sort of the biggest point of discussion this morning. Obviously, the margin there was somewhat lower than, I think, most of us were looking for and pretty minimal incremental margin. So it seems like price and cost were sort of a wash, if I'm understanding your remarks correctly. So I guess I'm trying to figure out what else was going on there that was sort of the big headwind for the margin. And then I'll just throw the follow-up, obviously, right in there, which is how do we think about that in 2019 from an incremental margin perspective?

是杰弗里斯。我希望我們能更深入地了解建築業。這似乎是今天上午討論的重點。顯然，我認為那裡的利潤率比我們大多數人期望的要低一些，而且增量利潤率相當小。所以如果我理解正確的話，看起來價格和成本好像有點不一樣。所以我想我正在試圖弄清楚那裡還發生了什麼其他事情，以至於對利潤率造成了巨大的阻力。然後我顯然會提出後續問題，從增量利潤率的角度來看，我們如何看待 2019 年的情況？

Thanks, Steve. Obviously, the margins were a little bit lower than we anticipated as well when we gave -- when we talked in the third quarter. There were a couple of factors underpinning that. One, we actually did expect material price actually to exceed our manufacturing cost increases in CI. There was a normal seasonal decline in CI margins, but that was one of the things we were expecting to partially offset that. That didn't materialize, partly because of material cost increases and also because of other manufacturing variances that did occur in the quarter. These included things like the absence of some incentives in Brazil, some variable labor inefficiencies, which all accumulated to that impact. As we look forward to 2019, I'll point out a couple of things about our CI margins, which give us confidence as we move forward. First of all, we did -- we put through the price increase on the 1st of January. Obviously, that will impact positively our margins and offset some of that weakness that we saw in the fourth quarter. And secondly, we do see the reset of incentive compensation, which will have a positive impact as we move through the year.

謝謝，史蒂夫。顯然，利潤率比我們在第三季談到的預期要低一點。有幾個因素導致了這一現象。首先，我們確實預期材料價格實際上將超過CI的製造成本增幅。CI 利潤率出現正常的季節性下降，但這是我們預期可以部分抵銷這種影響的因素之一。但這目標並未實現，部分原因是材料成本增加，也因為本季確實發生了其他製造差異。其中包括巴西缺乏一些激勵措施，勞動效率低等因素，所有這些因素累積起來都會產生這種影響。展望2019年，我想指出一些有關我們的CI利潤率的事情，這給了我們前進的信心。首先，我們確實在 1 月 1 日實施了漲價。顯然，這將對我們的利潤率產生積極影響，並抵消我們在第四季度看到的一些疲軟趨勢。其次，我們確實看到了激勵薪酬的重新設定，這將對我們今年的發展產生積極的影響。

Okay. So incremental margins next year in a sort of more normal 25% range? Or is that a bridge too far?

好的。那麼明年的增量利潤率將在更正常的 25％ 範圍內嗎？或者說這座橋太過遙遠？

We don't give margin guidance by segment, but we would expect next year to see that Construction Industries margins will be strong. And given the things like the price increase and the incentive compensation, obviously, those are tailwinds which should help us improve them.

我們沒有給出按部門劃分的利潤率指引，但我們預計明年建築業的利潤率將會很高。考慮到價格上漲和激勵性薪酬等因素，顯然這些都是有利因素，可以幫助我們改善現狀。

Our next question today is coming from Timothy Thein.

今天的下一個問題來自蒂莫西·泰因 (Timothy Thein)。

Citigroup. Andrew, maybe just to follow up on the last thread there. Just on pricing for the enterprise as a whole. I think you talked last quarter about a 1% to 4% announced increase to dealers. And just -- given that some time has lapsed and then maybe some of the end market conditions have changed, just how are you thinking about an overall yield relative to that 1% to 4% increase for 2019?

花旗集團。安德魯，也許只是為了跟進那裡的最後一條線索。僅針對整個企業的定價。我記得您上個季度談到向經銷商宣布增加 1% 至 4% 的折扣。而且——考慮到已經過去了一段時間，也許一些最終市場條件已經發生了變化，您如何看待相對於 2019 年 1% 至 4% 的增長的總體收益率？

Yes. I mean, there were a couple of other factors also, which might be able to help you, Tim. Just to remind you, obviously, the midyear price increase we had put that through, and some of that will also come through into next year as well. Overall, though, we do expect -- we've taken into account, as Jim said, the macroeconomic environment and geopolitical factors when we set our guidance range. We do anticipate, obviously, that you never get 100% (inaudible), but we do expect good price realization next year. And that will offset any manufacturing cost variances we expect.

是的。我的意思是，還有其他一些因素也許能夠幫助你，提姆。只是想提醒你，顯然，我們已經在年中提價了，而且其中的一部分也將持續到明年。但總體而言，正如吉姆所說，我們確實預期——在設定指導範圍時，我們已經考慮了宏觀經濟環境和地緣政治因素。顯然，我們確實預計您永遠不會獲得 100%（聽不清楚），但我們確實預計明年會實現良好的價格。這將抵消我們預期的任何製造成本差異。

Okay. I mean, just to take a midpoint, if I threw 2% out, that's $1 billion. I mean, do you think at this point, based on what you've seen in commodity markets and just some of your transportation and logistics experience in recent months, would you expect that level of variable cost inflation? Or it's just too many moving parts at this point to pin that down?

好的。我的意思是，取中間值，如果我去掉 2%，那就是 10 億美元。我的意思是，根據您在商品市場看到的情況以及您最近幾個月的一些運輸和物流經驗，您是否認為目前可變成本通膨會達到這種程度？還是目前有太多活動部件難以確定？

I think there are a number of moving parts, but our expectation, as I said, was that price would offset material cost increases.

我認為有很多因素在起作用，但正如我所說，我們的預期是價格將抵消材料成本的上漲。

Our next question today is coming from Chad Dillard.

今天的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德（Chad Dillard）。

It's Deutsche Bank. So I just want to go back to the tariff discussion. Can you quantify how much impact was in the fourth quarter? And how are you thinking about how that's embedded in the 2019 guide? And what should we think about in terms of cadence as we go through the year?

這是德意志銀行。所以我只想回到關稅討論。你能量化第四季的影響有多大嗎？您認為如何將其融入 2019 年指南中？那麼，當我們度過這一年時，我們應該以什麼樣的節奏來思考呢？

Yes. So Chad, it's Andrew again. So if you remember, the third quarter, we talked about the range. We're expecting to be at the bottom end of the $100 million range. We ended up just over $100 million. Our expectation is that at this stage, we don't see a rate change in the tariffs. That's our expectation. And obviously, then, because you would just extrapolate that out based on 12 months versus 5 months for 2018.

是的。查德，又是安德魯。所以如果你還記得的話，第三季我們討論的是範圍。我們預計該金額將處於 1 億美元左右。我們最終的收入剛好超過 1 億美元。我們的預期是，現階段關稅不會改變。這是我們的期望。顯然，因為您只需根據 12 個月而不是 2018 年的 5 個月來推斷。

Great. That's helpful. And then could you provide a little bit more color on the dealer inventory build? I think it was up about $2.3 billion for 2018. And if you can comment on whether you expect that to unwind in 2019. And can you take that entire amount out by the full year-end?

偉大的。這很有幫助。那麼您能否提供更多關於經銷商庫存建設的詳細資訊？我認為 2018 年這一數字增加了約 23 億美元。您是否可以評論一下是否預計這種狀況將在 2019 年解除。您能在年底前取出全部金額嗎？

Yes. Our assumption is, obviously, as we said consistently, our dealer inventory has been constrained, and obviously, we've been on managed distribution in CI for most of the year. We could have seen about -- as you say, the $2.3 billion increase. Keep in mind that dealers own and control their own inventory, so that is based on their expectations. We believe that the growth is directly aligned with current market demand and more normal ranges versus historic trends. We expect dealer inventory to be flat. We don't expect any -- our assumptions for guidance assume that there will be no further increase in dealer inventory from our shipments in 2019.

是的。我們的假設顯然是，正如我們一貫所說的那樣，我們的經銷商庫存受到限制，而且顯然，我們一年中的大部分時間都在進行 CI 的管理分銷。正如您所說，我們本來可以看到約 23 億美元的成長。請記住，經銷商擁有並控制自己的庫存，因此這取決於他們的預期。我們認為，成長與當前市場需求以及與歷史趨勢相比更正常的範圍直接相關。我們預計經銷商庫存將保持穩定。我們並不期望有任何成長——我們的指導假設是，2019 年我們的出貨量將不會進一步增加經銷商庫存。

Our next question today is coming from David Raso.

今天的下一個問題來自 David Raso。

Evercore ISI. My question relates to the sales guidance. You're staying up modestly. And I'm just trying to get some sense of maybe cadence or where your confidence is from that sales guidance. The backlog's currently up only 4.4%. The implied orders are up like 2%. And if you lose the $2.3 billion of inventory benefit to '18, right, you just said inventory is flat, that's over a 4% drag on your sales growth right there, right, for not getting the $2.3 billion that you got in '18. So can you help us with your comfort level where you're currently are in your order rates, your backlog, that lack of inventory growth in '19 that sales should be up modestly however you want to quantify that.

Evercore ISI。我的問題與銷售指導有關。你很謙虛地熬夜了。我只是想從銷售指導中了解節奏或您的信心所在。目前積壓量僅增加了4.4%。隱含訂單增加了約 2%。如果您在 2018 年損失了 23 億美元的庫存收益，對吧，您剛才說庫存持平，這會對您的銷售成長造成 4% 以上的拖累，因為您沒有獲得 2018 年獲得的 23 億美元。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您目前的訂單率、積壓訂單、19 年庫存成長不足等情況，無論您想如何量化，銷售額都應該會適度成長。

Dave, this is Jim. So obviously, our sales guide is dependent on a whole variety of factors, but we are in constant contact with our dealers. We look at industry trends. We have a bottoms up process. And based on everything that we see, we believe that, again, sales will be up modestly in 2019. If we just think about our different market segments, and you can go around the world, we talked about China a lot, and we expect China to be flat after. In Construction Industries, it's a very good increase. We were up 40% in 2018. The industry demand was up 40% in 2018 after doubling in 2017. Oil and gas, gas compression remains strong, both through our recip and solar businesses. We do -- we are seeing some weakness in well servicing in recip, but as I mentioned earlier, we expect that to resolve itself in the next 6 months of the year after the takeaway issues in the Permian get resolved. We've got positive momentum in power generation. The U.S. economy continues to be strong, and that has an impact on both industrial and on our construction business. Transportation, we expect our rail business to be better in 2019 than in 2018. As you know, there's a lot of pipeline construction going on in North America. That's a positive for us. So again, we just go through industry by industry, country by country and develop a forecast. And we believe it will be up in 2019 modestly.

戴夫，這是吉姆。顯然，我們的銷售指南取決於多種因素，但我們與經銷商保持持續聯繫。我們關注行業趨勢。我們有一個由下而上的流程。根據我們所看到的一切，我們相信 2019 年的銷售額將再次小幅上漲。如果我們只考慮我們不同的細分市場，你可以環顧世界各地，我們談論了很多關於中國的事情，我們預計中國隨後將保持穩定。在建築業，這是一個非常好的成長。2018 年我們的成長了 40%。該產業需求繼 2017 年翻倍後，2018 年又成長了 40%。石油和天然氣、天然氣壓縮依然保持強勁，無論是透過我們的互惠業務還是太陽能業務。我們確實看到了油井服務方面的一些薄弱環節，但正如我之前提到的，我們預計，在二疊紀盆地的外賣問題得到解決後，這一問題將在未來 6 個月內得到解決。我們在發電方面取得了積極的勢頭。美國經濟持續強勁，這對工業和我們的建築業務都產生了影響。交通運輸方面，我們預計 2019 年的鐵路業務將比 2018 年更好。眾所周知，北美正在興建大量的管道。這對我們來說是件好事。所以，我們只是逐一產業、逐國進行研究，然後再做出預測。我們相信 2019 年該數字將會小幅上漲。

But for the cadence question, I think what people are trying to figure out, are we starting the year with any growth rate cushion to be able to absorb second half of '19, if it is flat to down? We're just trying to get a sense of starting the year versus what's sort of baked in for the back half. And we all can speculate, but I was hoping you'll have a little more cushion to start the year from the backlog growth and what you just reported. I think we're just trying to get a sense of the cadence and what kind of (inaudible) around orders are needed later in the year.

但對於節奏問題，我想人們想要弄清楚的是，如果經濟成長是持平還是下降，我們是否以任何成長率緩衝來開始新的一年，以便能夠吸收2019年下半年的影響？我們只是想了解今年年初的情況以及下半年的情況。我們都可以猜測，但我希望你能從積壓增長和你剛才報告的情況中，在年初擁有更多的緩衝。我認為我們只是想了解節奏以及今年晚些時候需要什麼樣的（聽不清楚）訂單。

David, just to point out a couple of things. I mean, the increase in the backlog is -- the backlog at the end of the year was $16.5 billion versus $15.8 billion last year. That is despite putting more inventory into the channel, because don't forget, these are dealer backlog orders effectively, so dealers have built inventory. And they still expect -- even though they built it, they are still asking us for $1 billion more in orders than we were at this time last year. So that does give us that confidence. I think, as Jim said, yes, we also will look around end markets. We take all of these things into account. And that does give us the confidence to be able to say we expect sales to be up modestly next year.

大衛，我只是想指出幾點。我的意思是，積壓訂單的增加是——年底積壓訂單為 165 億美元，而去年為 158 億美元。儘管向通路投入了更多庫存，但別忘了，這些實際上是經銷商積壓的訂單，所以經銷商已經建立了庫存。而且他們仍然預計——儘管他們已經建造了它，但他們要求我們的訂單金額仍然比去年同期多 10 億美元。這確實給了我們信心。我認為，正如吉姆所說，是的，我們也會關注終端市場。我們將所有這些因素都考慮在內。這確實讓我們有信心說，預計明年銷售額將小幅上漲。

And we do -- certainly, as you know, we have lumpiness in both our oil and gas business and in our rail business and in our mining business, frankly, so there are variations quarter-to-quarter as we ship and financially recognize large orders.

當然，如您所知，我們的石油和天然氣業務、鐵路業務和採礦業務都存在波動，坦白說，因此，隨著我們發貨和財務上確認大額訂單，每個季度都會存在差異。

Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi.

我們今天的下一個問題來自羅斯·吉拉迪。

Ross Gilardi from Bank of America. Could you help us a little bit on the quarterly earnings cadence for 2019 that you're expecting? I mean, you did $2.55 in the fourth quarter. You did $2.82 in the first quarter of '18. I mean, are earnings up in the first quarter of '19? And if they are, can you help bridge with what you did in Q4 with what you would do in Q1?

美國銀行的羅斯‧吉拉迪 (Ross Gilardi)。您能否幫我們稍微介紹一下您預計的 2019 年季度獲利節奏？我的意思是，你在第四季的獲利為 2.55 美元。您在 2018 年第一季的利潤為 2.82 美元。我的意思是，2019 年第一季的收益增加了嗎？如果是，您能否幫助您將第 4 季所做的事情與第 1 季所做的事情聯繫起來？

Yes. Ross, it's Andrew. Again, the $2.55 was impacted by the write-downs in Cat Power Finance, which we don't expect; and the mark-to-market losses in Cat Financial, which we don't expect to recur. if you added that back, that would be about $2.70. We don't give quarterly guidance on earnings. But that gives you -- then we've got on top of our price increases, hence the start of the selling season, which will impact Q1.

是的。羅斯，我是安德魯。再一次，2.55 美元受到了 Cat Power Finance 減記的影響，這是我們沒有預料到的；以及 Cat Financial 的市價損失，我們預計這些損失不會再次發生。如果把這個數字加回來，那就大約是 2.70 美元。我們不提供季度獲利預測。但這給你——然後我們的價格上漲，因此銷售季節開始，這將影響第一季。

I'll also add in there is that you recall that we had a very strong Q1 in 2018, so from a comp perspective, that will be there as well.

我還要補充一點，您還記得我們 2018 年第一季的業績非常強勁，因此從公司角度來看，我們的業績也將保持強勁。

Okay. Got it. And then can you help us all on either more on the mining OE side of the business and what you're expecting from a mining truck perspective? And assuming in your 2019 outlook, obviously, that number is still way, way below what, I think, you guys would consider normalized demand. But are we at a pause here? Or does that number continue to grow nicely this year?

好的。知道了。然後，您能否幫助我們更多地了解採礦 OE 業務方面的情況以及您對採礦卡車角度的期望？並且假設在您的 2019 年展望中，顯然，這個數字仍然遠低於您認為的正常需求。但我們在這裡暫停了嗎？或者說今年這個數字還會持續成長嗎？

So certainly, machine utilization by our mining customers continue to increase. We anticipate that their CapEx budgets will increase in 2019. The quotation activity remains robust, and we expect our mining business to be higher in 2019 than '18. So that is a positive for us.

因此，我們的採礦客戶的機器利用率肯定會持續增加。我們預計他們的資本支出預算將在 2019 年增加。報價活動依然強勁，我們預計 2019 年的採礦業務將高於 2018 年。這對我們來說是一件正面的事情。

Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook.

今天的下一個問題來自傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)。

Just given the macro concerns out there, one, can you comment on specifically what -- are you taking any actions, whether it's production or additional cost actions? Given the concerns about the macro environment, I'm just trying to understand whether you guys are being proactive here or not. So first, if you could comment on that. And then my second question is, I know you said dealer inventories are expected to be sort of flat year-on-year. Are you doing anything as well with the dealers to make sure we're not over-ordering or to, again, prepare for a market that could potentially be weaker?

考慮到目前存在的宏觀擔憂，首先，您能否具體評論一下——您是否採取了任何行動，無論是生產還是額外成本行動？考慮到對宏觀環境的擔憂，我只是想知道你們在這裡是否採取了積極主動的態度。首先，如果您能對此發表評論的話。我的第二個問題是，我知道您說經銷商庫存預計將比去年同期持平。您是否也與經銷商採取了什麼措施，以確保我們不會過度訂購，或再次為可能疲軟的市場做好準備？

Yes, Jamie, certainly, we've kept a very close control of costs, and saw our period costs in the fourth quarter of '18 were actually less than they were in the fourth quarter of 2017. I do remind you, though, that we are guiding to a sales -- a modest sales increase in 2019, so we are not guiding to a sales increase. Having said that, we will continue to closely monitor costs, and we'll always be ready for whatever the market sends us. One of the things that we believe, we're in much better shape. At some point, there will be a market downturn. We're not calling that in '19, but whenever that does occur, we're certainly in a much better position to generate cash than we were in the last downturn. So again, we'll be very cost-disciplined here moving forward.

是的，傑米，當然，我們一直嚴格控製成本，並且發現 2018 年第四季的期間成本實際上低於 2017 年第四季。不過，我確實要提醒你，我們預計 2019 年銷售額將溫和成長，因此我們並沒有預期銷售額會增加。話雖如此，我們將繼續密切監控成本，並隨時準備好應對市場可能出現的任何變化。我們相信的一件事是，我們的狀況已經好多了。在某個時候，市場將會出現低迷。我們不會在2019年預測這種情況，但無論何時發生，我們肯定比上次經濟衰退時更有能力產生現金。所以，我們今後會更嚴格地控製成本。

And then, sorry, just another one more follow-up. Just understanding restructuring is now part of GAAP, can you just help us understand what that number is? And then, also just to finance sub-contribution '19 versus '18, just given some of the one-offs that we had in '18.

然後，抱歉，還有一個後續問題。只是了解重組現在是 GAAP 的一部分，您能幫助我們理解這個數字是多少嗎？然後，也只是為了資助 19 年與 18 年的分項貢獻，只是考慮到我們在 18 年的一些一次性支出。

Yes. So we would -- obviously, we are going through a period where restructuring becomes much more normal this year. The charge was around $400 million. You should expect it to be substantially lower than that. Otherwise, we would still be adjusting it out of adjusted profit. I'm not going give you a number because, obviously, it depends on what activities we do or will be reported in the Q, and it depends on what actions we take in the business during the year, but it will be part of our normal operating earnings, and that's taken into account in our guidance. The other part of the question was Cat Financial. So this year, I think write-offs relating to the Cat Power Finance portfolio in Latin America have amounted to somewhere around about $150 million in total. That will be the area which we wouldn't expect to recur.

是的。因此，顯然，今年我們正處於重組變得更加正常的時期。這筆費用大約是4億美元。你應該預料到它會比這個數字低得多。否則，我們仍會從調整後的利潤中進行調整。我不會給你一個數字，因為顯然這取決於我們做什麼活動或將在 Q 中報告什麼活動，也取決於我們在這一年中在業務中採取什麼行動，但這將是我們正常營業收入的一部分，並且這已在我們的指導中考慮到。問題的另一部分是 Cat Financial。因此，我認為今年與拉丁美洲 Cat Power Finance 投資組合相關的註銷總額約為 1.5 億美元。那將是我們不希望再次發生的領域。

Our next question today is coming from Joe O'Dea.

今天的下一個問題來自喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

It's Vertical Research. I wanted to understand some of the cost headwinds in the quarter a little bit better, so the degree to which you can expand on some of what happened on the materials and freight side that surprised you in the quarter. And then to understand how those work moving forward. Is that something that is corrected as of today and back to the kind of cost structure you expected to end 2018 with? Or are those things that persist as of today, and how long will that be the case?

這是垂直研究。我想更了解本季的一些成本阻力，以便您能詳細闡述本季材料和貨運方面出現的一些令您感到驚訝的情況。然後了解這些工作如何向前發展。從今天起，這個問題是否得到了糾正，並恢復到您預計 2018 年底的成本結構？或者這些事情會持續到今天，而這種情況會持續多久？

Yes, yes. So I mean, obviously, things like manufacturing variances, which were attributable to absorption rates and so forth, obviously, they end at the end of that period. And they were a portion of that negative variance in the quarter. And obviously, they will be taken into account as we move into 2019 based on production, and we'll obviously continue to work those through. With regards to the material costs and freight costs, I mean, we did see some material cost increases in the fourth quarter, which we were, as we said, we weren't expecting. Part of that is due to the fact that obviously, we are in an environment of constrained supply still, and those did feed through into costs. Those will be built into our numbers for 2019 and into our guidance range, so effectively, we'll be part of that manufacturing cost being offset by price realization as we move forward. So those are the 2 big things regarding that.

是的，是的。所以我的意思是，顯然，諸如製造差異之類的因素（這些因素可歸因於吸收率等）會在該期間結束時結束。它們是本季負差異的一部分。顯然，隨著我們進入 2019 年，我們將根據生產情況考慮這些問題，並繼續努力完成這些問題。關於材料成本和運費，我的意思是，我們確實看到第四季度材料成本增加，正如我們所說，這是我們沒有預料到的。部分原因顯然是我們仍然處於供應受限的環境中，而這確實影響了成本。這些將被納入我們2019年的數據和指導範圍中，因此實際上，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將透過價格實現來抵消部分製造成本。因此這就是與此相關的兩件大事。

And as of October, you were talking, I think, about price offsetting cost. And so is that meaning that a little bit more assertive on the price front to go after some of these costs? I'm just trying to understand that dynamic of price/cost neutrality. And I think that was expected 3 months ago. You've got higher costs today, but do you still expect to offset the end with price?

我認為，從十月開始，您就在談論價格抵銷成本。那麼，這是否意味著在價格方面要更加積極一些，以降低部分成本？我只是想了解價格/成本中立的動態。我認為這是三個月前就預料到的。今天你的成本已經上漲了，但是你還期望透過價格來抵銷最終的成本嗎？

Yes, I think actually what we really expected was a little bit stronger performance in the fourth quarter, then we actually expected price to more than offset cost. It didn't happen. And so that was the challenge that actually happened there. As we look into 2019, as we said, we expect price to offset manufacturing cost increases.

是的，我認為實際上我們真正預期的是第四季度的表現會更強勁一些，然後我們實際上預計價格將超過成本。這並沒有發生。這就是在那裡實際發生的挑戰。正如我們所說，展望2019年，我們預期價格將抵銷製造成本的上漲。

Got it. And then just on the revenue expectations for the year and the modest growth. As you walk through some of the key end markets and the puts and takes there, it's unclear, I guess, the degree to which you're looking at a scenario where volumes are up. So I think most of the commentary leans a little bit more constructive. There are some clear pockets of headwinds. But overall, it leans a little bit more constructive. And so is that to suggest that the base case expectation here is that we've got a little bit of volume growth in 2019 on top of the pricing expectations?

知道了。然後只是關於今年的收入預期和適度增長。當您瀏覽一些主要的終端市場以及那裡的買賣情況時，我猜您不清楚您所看到的成交量上升的程度。因此我認為大多數評論都比較有建設性。一些領域存在明顯的逆風。但總體而言，它更傾向於建設性。那麼，這是否意味著，基本預期是，在定價預期的基礎上，2019 年的銷售量還會有一點成長？

Yes, yes. There is a modest amount of volume increase on top of the price. That's correct.

是的，是的。除了價格以外，銷量還有適度的增加。沒錯。

Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan.

今天的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan。

It's JPMorgan. I'd like to go back to the financial services business, and I was hoping you could give us some color on the unfavorable impact from returned or repossessed equipment in Europe and Latin America specifically. Should we now be concerned that residual value are set too high and that this is just the beginning of negative residual value risk for the finco as we go forward both in Europe and LATAM?

這是摩根大通。我想回到金融服務業務，我希望您能為我們介紹歐洲和拉丁美洲退回或收回設備所帶來的不利影響。我們現在是否應該擔心殘值設定得太高，而這只是歐洲和拉丁美洲金融公司面臨負殘值風險的開始？

Actually, most of that -- and this is Andrew. Again, most of that related actually to the Cat Power Financial portfolio rather than to construction equipment. And that was specific items related to the portfolio I was talking about, where we have had some troubled loans, which we are making substantial progress. I'm actually working through those. We've taken write-offs in the second quarter and the fourth quarter. And the residual risk is being managed and also the portfolio is being managed going forward. This is now the reflection of construction industry residuals.

實際上，大部分都是——這是安德魯。再次，其中大部分實際上與 Cat Power Financial 投資組合而非建築設備有關。這些是與我剛才談到的投資組合相關的具體項目，我們有一些問題貸款，我們正在取得實質進展。我實際上正在努力解決這些問題。我們已經在第二季和第四季進行了註銷。並且剩餘風險正在管理，並且投資組合也正在管理。這就是現在建築業殘值的反映。

And those write-offs were associated with primarily the Marine portfolio for loans that were made quite some time ago.

這些註銷主要與海軍陸戰隊相當長時間前的貸款組合有關。

Was there a surprise or had you that been anticipating those as you went through the year?

在這一年中，有沒有什麼驚喜或是你已經預料到了這些？

I mean, as it always happens, and until you actually take a piece of equipment back, you don't actually know what the real value is. So you have an estimate, and some of those estimates were proven to be wrong.

我的意思是，就像經常發生的那樣，直到你真正拿回一件設備，你才知道它的真正價值。所以你有一個估計，但其中一些估計被證明是錯誤的。

Okay. And just real quick on my follow-up on the revenue guidance. Up modest, but pricing should be 2.5%, which, again, as others have pointed out, suggests sort of flat volume. Can you talk about what you're seeing broadly in Europe? I know Turkey was the source weakness, but are you seeing any broader weakness in Europe across the different regions?

好的。我只是快速跟進一下收入指導。雖然上漲幅度不大，但定價應為 2.5%，正如其他人所指出的那樣，這再次表明交易量持平。您能談談您在歐洲看到的整體情況嗎？我知道土耳其是弱點的源頭，但您是否看到歐洲不同地區有更廣泛的弱點？

Yes. Ann, I don't believe we gave a 2.5% price guidance for '19, so I think that was...

是的。安，我不認為我們給了19年2.5%的價格指導，所以我認為那是...

Well, 1% to 4% average is 2.5%, right?

那麼，1% 到 4% 的平均數是 2.5%，對嗎？

That's fine. That's fine. So we talked about -- just going around the world, you asked about Europe, but again, Turkey has been an area of real concern. Just going around the world, Brazil has been tough. Argentina has been tough. South Africa has been tough. But in terms of pointing to a particular country in Europe that has created concern for us, no. Obviously, we're all waiting to see what happens with Brexit and how that will all shake out. But no, other than Turkey, that's the biggest concern.

沒關係。沒關係。因此，我們討論了——環顧世界，您問到歐洲，但再說一次，土耳其一直是一個真正令人擔憂的地區。放眼世界，巴西一直很強。阿根廷隊狀態一直不佳。南非的情況一直很艱難。但至於哪個歐洲國家讓我們感到擔憂，答案是否定的。顯然，我們都在等著看英國脫歐會發生什麼以及一切將如何發展。但事實並非如此，除了土耳其以外，這才是最大的擔憂。

Our next question today is coming from Mig Dobre.

我們今天的下一個問題來自米格·多布雷。

Baird. I want to go back to maybe understanding what's going on, on the cost side a little bit better. If you're saying that volumes here are going to grow modestly next year, how should we think about the manufacturing costs that are currently embedded in your outlook in terms of the headwinds on that? And can you also maybe comment on how you're thinking about R&D, how you're thinking about SG&A? And I know somebody already asked the restructuring question, but what would you consider to be a normal restructuring level in terms of expense for the business going forward?

貝爾德。我想回過頭來更了解一下成本方面的情況。如果您說明年這裡的銷售量將會適度成長，那麼我們應該如何看待目前包含在您前景中的製造成本所帶來的不利因素呢？您能否評論一下您對研發的看法以及銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的看法？我知道有人已經問過重組的問題，但就未來業務費用而言，您認為正常的重組水平是多少？

So starting on, as I think we've tried to say, we expect price and manufacturing to offset each other. So that's our expectation. And obviously, the timing of how those price increases come through and how that feeds through into the business throughout the year will be something that we'll be reporting on. But overall, we expect the 2 to brush out through the year. We will continue to make targeted investments in both R&D and in SG&A to expand our service offering and also our other offerings as well. So those will -- but we will be disciplined about those increases, and they will reflect around things, which we expect to get a return on as we move forward. With regards to restructuring, the problem is, if I give you a number today in restructuring, I guarantee you that something will happen during the year which will change it because as we know, restructuring charges can only be taken once actually any announcements have been made of some restructuring event. But where we expect them to be is substantially below the $400 million this year, and therefore, that's why we were prepared to absorb it within our normal earnings -- our profit per share for the year.

因此，正如我們試圖說的那樣，我們預計價格和製造將相互抵消。這就是我們的期望。顯然，我們將報告這些價格上漲的具體時間以及對全年業務的影響。但總體而言，我們預計這兩家公司今年將實現盈利。我們將繼續在研發和銷售、一般及行政開支方面進行有針對性的投資，以擴大我們的服務範圍以及其他產品範圍。所以這些都會——但我們會對這些成長保持紀律，它們會反映在我們期望在未來獲得回報的事情上。關於重組，問題是，如果我今天在重組中給你一個數字，我向你保證，今年將會發生一些事情來改變它，因為我們知道，只有實際宣布某些重組事件後才能收取重組費用。但我們預計今年的損失將大大低於 4 億美元，因此，我們準備在正常收益（即今年每股利潤）範圍內吸收這筆損失。

I see. Well, instead of asking a question, maybe I'll just make a comment. I don't know about the other participants on the call, but as far as I'm concerned, I can tell you, I'm having a really hard time equating exactly all that's baked into guidance, vis-à-vis where we're all kind of learning in terms of how commodity prices are progressing. Steel prices are progressing. And really kind of you're putting your overall outlook together for 2019. So I'm wondering if there is a way at the Analyst Day or maybe next call that we can get a little more granularity at segment level in terms of what you're thinking for revenue and what you're thinking for margins as well, I think that would be really helpful.

我懂了。好吧，與其問問題，我可能只是發表一下評論。我不知道電話會議上的其他參與者的情況，但就我而言，我可以告訴你，我很難將所有包含在指導中的內容與我們都在學習的有關大宗商品價格走勢的內容進行等值。鋼材價格持續上漲。您確實對 2019 年做出了整體展望。所以我想知道，在分析師日或下次電話會議上，我們是否有辦法在細分層面上更詳細地了解您對收入的看法以及您對利潤的看法，我認為這會非常有幫助。

Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich.

今天的下一個問題來自傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。

It's Goldman Sachs. Jim, I'm wondering if you could expand on your earlier comments in terms of pretty good quotation activity in Resource Industries. Can you just give us a flavor for in terms of commodities that are driving increase today? And when do you expect that to translate to seeing order and backlog growth in Resource Industries again? Are you hearing from your customers that we're going to need greater clarity on U.S.-China trade relations for them to place the orders. Any additional context along those points would be helpful, please.

這是高盛。吉姆，我想知道您是否可以就資源行業相當不錯的報價活動進一步闡述您之前的評論。能否簡單介紹一下目前推動價格上漲的商品？您預計何時資源產業的訂單和積壓訂單會再次成長？您是否從客戶那裡聽說，我們需要更清楚地了解中美貿易關係，以便他們下訂單。關於這些要點的任何補充背景資訊都會很有幫助。

What we've seen is the idle truck fleet continued to decline throughout 2018. As I mentioned earlier, the utilization of our machines continues to increase. We believe that most of the units have now been brought back online and of course we were in a situation for a number of years, where there was a very large fleet parked, and that's no longer the case. Most analysts are forecasting an average of 5% to 6% growth in miners' capital spending in 2019 compared to 2018. Certainly, mining companies are working to get the most out of their assets, and they're being cautious as to when they place orders. But activity -- quotation activity, as I mentioned, is quite robust. We are selling more product, and we expect to have a higher level of business in '19. Certainly, there is some softness in the areas like Indonesian coal. But again, that's being offset by demand in other regions.

我們看到，閒置卡車數量在 2018 年全年持續下降。正如我之前提到的，我們機器的利用率持續提高。我們相信，現在大多數設備都已恢復運行，當然，我們多年來一直處於這樣的境地，即有大量設備停運，而現在這種情況已經不再存在了。大多數分析師預測，2019 年礦業公司的資本支出將比 2018 年平均成長 5% 至 6%。當然，礦業公司正在努力最大限度地利用他們的資產，並且在下訂單時非常謹慎。但正如我所提到的，活動——報價活動相當活躍。我們正在銷售更多的產品，預計2019年的業務水準會更高。當然，印尼煤炭等領域也存在一些疲軟跡象。但這又被其他地區的需求所抵銷。

And just to put a finer point on that, are you at a point where you think we're now that quotation activity, after hitting a pause in translating to orders in the back half of '18 we're see greater pace of new equipment orders in the first half on '19 based on the timing of the tenders that you're looking at?

為了更詳細地說明這一點，您是否認為我們現在的報價活動在 2018 年下半年轉化為訂單暫停之後，根據您正在查看的招標時間，我們是否看到 2019 年上半年新設備訂單的速度更快？

Again, mining in particular was quite lumpy. And you can get orders -- a single order for a very large number of pieces of equipment that has an impact on the backlog. So again, I hesitate to try to quantify it in terms of a quarterly cadence. But again, year-on-year, 2019, we expect higher sales '19 than '18.

再次，採礦業尤其不平穩。而且您可以獲得訂單—一份針對大量設備的訂單會對積壓產生影響。因此，我再次猶豫是否要嘗試按照季度節奏來量化它。但與去年同期相比，我們預期2019年的銷售額將高於2018年的銷售額。

Okay. And Jim, the other area that you've mentioned that's positive in '19 is locomotives. Can you just frame for us based on the production plan and orders in hand how much of a production ramp are we thinking about '19 versus '18 compared to the healthy run rate this business was at prior to Tier 4?

好的。吉姆，您提到的2019年另一個積極的領域是機車。您能否根據生產計劃和手頭上的訂單，與我們在 Tier 4 之前的業務健康運行率相比，我們考慮在 2019 年和 2018 年實現多少產量提升？

Yes. We're not going to quantify it, but certainly, again, you know that rail traffic has, in fact, increased in 2018. I think we mentioned in a previous call that we had good growth in rail services with higher traffic. And also, we've made a couple of acquisitions, as we mentioned earlier this morning. So we expect continued growth in our service and parts business. We're seeing rebuilds. Again, we expect our business to increase in '19. I would hesitate to try to compare it to where we were in previous period, but it is getting better.

是的。我們不會量化它，但可以肯定的是，您再說一遍，鐵路運輸量實際上在 2018 年有所增加。我想我們在之前的電話會議中提到過，我們的鐵路服務成長良好，客流量也隨之增加。而且，正如我們今天早上提到的，我們已經進行了一些收購。因此我們預計我們的服務和零件業務將繼續成長。我們正在看到重建。我們再次預計我們的業務在2019年將會成長。我不太願意將它與我們之前的情況進行比較，但情況確實正在好轉。

Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber.

我們今天的下一個問題來自塞思韋伯。

It's RBC. I wanted to just go back to China for a second. You did talk about expectations for the Chinese construction market, the industry being kind of flattish. But can you just talk about whether you're seeing anything unusual there from a competitive pricing perspective and whether that is something that kind of contributed to the lower-than-expected construction margins in the quarter?

是 RBC。我只是想回中國一會兒。您確實談到了對中國建築市場的預期，該行業表現有點平淡。但是，您能否談談從競爭性定價的角度來看，您是否看到任何異常情況，以及這是否是導致本季建築利潤率低於預期的原因之一？

As I think Andrew mentioned, that really did not impact construction margins in the quarter. That's not one of the things that we cited. Certainly, we have competitors all over the world. We have competitors in China, but we are very well positioned in China. We have invested significantly. We have more than 20 manufacturing facilities. We have roughly 13,000 employees. We have local leadership teams. We've vertically integrated our supply chain in China. So we are very well positioned to compete and win in China. We're introducing new product, so we feel good about our competitive situation in China. And again, there's a variety of forecasts that are out there. But after 2 years of robust growth in CI for us in China, we expect it to be about flat next year.

正如安德魯所提到的那樣，這實際上並沒有影響本季的建築利潤率。這不是我們所引用的事情之一。當然，我們在世界各地都有競爭對手。我們在中國有競爭對手，但我們在中國的地位非常有利。我們已投入大量資金。我們擁有 20 多家製造工廠。我們大約有 13,000 名員工。我們有當地領導團隊。我們已經垂直整合了在中國的供應鏈。因此，我們在中國市場上具有很強的競爭力，並且能夠取得勝利。我們正在推出新產品，因此我們對在中國的競爭情況感到滿意。而且，目前有許多預測。然而，經過我們在中國CI兩年的強勁成長之後，我們預計明年它將持平。

Yes. Can I just add a little bit of color on the Cat sales in China, actually relating to this because we did see very strong sales in the fourth quarter 2017, which then fed through into the first half of this year, where obviously China, as you wouldn't expect, in the normal selling season previous summer actually, were very, very strong. Third quarter and fourth quarter have diminished from those first 2 -- first half of the year, as you would expect a return to much more normal pattern. So actually, it wasn't actually an overall view of China for the year that impacted the quarter. It actually was just a weakness relating to a very strong comparator in 2017.

是的。可否稍微介紹一下 Cat 在中國的銷售情況？實際上與此相關，因為我們確實看到 2017 年第四季度的銷售非常強勁，並且這種勢頭一直延續到今年上半年，顯然，正如您所預料的那樣，在去年夏天的正常銷售季節，中國的銷售非常非常強勁。第三季和第四季的銷售額較前兩季（即今年上半年）有所下降，正如我們所預期的那樣，銷售額將恢復到更正常的模式。因此實際上，影響本季的並不是中國全年的整體情況。這實際上只是與 2017 年非常強大的比較對象相關的一個弱點。

That's helpful. And then, Andrew, maybe just a follow-up on the -- I think you said share buyback, you're targeting about $750 million in the first quarter, which would be down from $1.8 billion here in the fourth quarter, and you're sitting on $8 billion of cash. Is there a reason why you're not being more aggressive, I guess, versus the $750 million outlook for the first quarter?

這很有幫助。然後，安德魯，也許只是後續問題——我想你說過股票回購，你的目標是第一季約 7.5 億美元，這將低於第四季度的 18 億美元，而你現在有 80 億美元現金。我想，與第一季 7.5 億美元的預期相比，你們沒有採取更積極的措施，有什麼原因嗎？

Yes. A couple of things. One to think about, one, which is, obviously, we've always said we will be opportunistic and it will depend on market conditions and so forth as to when we're going to the market and our other uses of cash. The reality is actually in the first quarter, we have a lower cash flow, partially because of incentive compensation payments. So we do take that into account when we're considering the amount for the year. As you will know now, this will be the fourth quarter in a row which we will have done $750 million. Our aim is to be in the market on a more consistent basis rather than be in and out. But we will take opportunistic -- opportunities to actually go back and buy more, but that would depend on our free cash flow and other investment priorities.

是的。有幾件事。需要考慮的一點是，顯然，我們一直說我們會抓住機會，這將取決於市場條件等等，例如我們何時進入市場以及我們將如何使用現金。實際情況是，在第一季度，我們的現金流較低，部分原因是激勵性薪資支付。因此，我們在考慮年度金額時會考慮到這一點。正如大家現在所知，這是我們連續第四個季度實現 7.5 億美元的收入。我們的目標是更持續進入市場，而不是時進時出。但我們會抓住機會——回去購買更多產品的機會，但這取決於我們的自由現金流和其他投資重點。

And I think that's going to -- thanks. I think that's going to need to be our last question. Jim, do you have any final comments?

我想這就夠了——謝謝。我想這是我們的最後一個問題。吉姆，你還有什麼要說的嗎？

Well, thank you, Amy. Again, 2018 was a terrific year for Cat. We achieved a record profit per share, strong operating cash flow, returned significant capital to shareholders and continued to invest for long-term growth. Again, as I mentioned, we believe our enterprise strategy is working. Even though 2018 was a record year, we've increased our profit per share outlook for 2019 and look forward to continuing to serve our customers. Thanks for joining today's call. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

好吧，謝謝你，艾米。2018 年對 Cat 來說又是豐收的一年。我們實現了創紀錄的每股利潤、強勁的經營現金流、向股東返還了大量資本，並繼續投資以實現長期成長。再次，正如我所提到的，我們相信我們的企業策略正在發揮作用。儘管 2018 年是創紀錄的一年，但我們仍上調了 2019 年每股獲利預期，並期待繼續為客戶提供服務。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Thanks, Jim. And Kate, I think that concludes our call.

謝謝，吉姆。凱特，我想我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。