開拓重工 (CAT) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 3Q 2019 Analyst Conference.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2019 年第三季分析師大會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人珍妮佛‧德里斯科爾 (Jennifer Driscoll)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thanks, Catherine. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Third Quarter Earnings Call at our new, earlier time of 7:30 a.m Central.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒第三季財報電話會議，我們的新時間是中部時間上午 7:30。

Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, vice president of our global finance services division; and Rob Rengel, Investor Relations Manager.

今天與我們一起參加的有董事會主席兼首席執行官 Jim Umpleby；首席財務官 Andrew Bonfield；以及我們全球金融服務部門副總裁 Kyle Epley；以及投資者關係經理 Rob Rengel。

Our call today expands on our earnings release which we issued earlier this morning. You'll find slides to accompany today's presentation, along with the release, in the investors section of caterpillar.com, under events & presentations.

我們今天的電話會議擴展了我們今天早上發布的收益報告。您可以在 caterpillar.com 的投資者部分中的「活動和演示」下找到今天演示的幻燈片以及發佈內容。

The forward-looking statements we make today are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discuss today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today's news release for details on factors that individually or combined could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecasts.

我們今天所做的前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們也會做出一些假設，這可能會導致我們的實際結果與我們今天討論的資訊不同。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解單獨或組合可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的因素的詳細資訊。

Let me remind you that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call, and we prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval.

請容許我提醒您，卡特彼勒擁有此通話的版權，未經我們事先書面批准，我們禁止使用其中的任何部分。

We're not reporting adjusted profit per share today, but remember we will at the end of the fourth quarter. This will exclude any mark-to-market gain or loss for the remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans as well as any other material discrete items. As a reminder: Our U.S. GAAP-based guidance for profit per share continues to include the benefit of the $0.31 discrete tax item we recognized in the first quarter.

我們今天不會報告調整後的每股利潤，但請記住我們將在第四季度末報告。這將排除因重新計量退休金和其他離職後福利計劃以及任何其他重大單獨項目而產生的任何按市價計價的收益或損失。提醒一下：我們基於美國 GAAP 的每股利潤指引繼續包含我們在第一季確認的 0.31 美元單獨稅項的收益。

In a moment, you'll hear from Andrew with a summary of this quarter's financial results, but first let me turn the call over to Jim for our third quarter highlights, which appear on Slide 3.

稍後，您將聽到安德魯對本季度財務業績的總結，但首先讓我將電話轉給吉姆，讓他介紹我們第三季度的亮點，這些亮點出現在幻燈片 3 上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning and welcome to Caterpillar's Third Quarter Earnings Call.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒第三季財報電話會議。

First, I'll cover our third quarter results at a high level and give you my perspective on the key factors influencing our performance. I'll then provide some context for our decision to lower our 2019 guidance and will discuss our expectations for the external environment.

首先，我將概括介紹我們第三季的業績，並闡述我對影響我們業績的關鍵因素的看法。然後，我將提供一些我們決定下調 2019 年指引的背景信息，並討論我們對外部環境的預期。

The primary factor impacting our third quarter results was lower volume driven by reductions in dealer inventory and lower-than-expected demand from end users. Sales and revenues declined 6% during the quarter mostly due to Construction Industries and Resource Industries. During the third quarter of 2018, dealers increased inventory by $800 million in anticipation of increasing end user demand. This compares to a decline of $400 million in dealer inventory during the third quarter of 2019, a quarter-to-quarter change of $1.2 billion. Although the retail sales data we released this morning reflected an increase of 6% for both machines and Energy & Transportation, we believe dealers reduced inventory due to uncertainty in the global economy resulting from trade tensions and other factors. We've also made progress reducing our lead times, which allows dealers to maintain less inventory. Shorter lead times allows Caterpillar and our dealers to more quickly adapt to changing market conditions. We are taking steps to reduce production to match dealer demand.

影響我們第三季業績的主要因素是經銷商庫存減少和終端用戶需求低於預期導致的銷售下降。本季銷售額和收入下降 6%，主要原因是建築業和資源業。2018年第三季度，經銷商預計終端用戶需求將增加，因此增加了8億美元的庫存。相較之下，2019 年第三季經銷商庫存減少 4 億美元，較上季變動 12 億美元。儘管我們今天早上發布的零售數據顯示機械、能源和運輸等領域的零售額均增長了 6%，但我們認為，由於貿易緊張和其他因素導致的全球經濟不確定性，經銷商減少了庫存。我們還在縮短交貨時間方面取得了進展，這使得經銷商可以維持更少的庫存。更短的交貨時間使得卡特彼勒和我們的經銷商能夠更快地適應不斷變化的市場條件。我們正在採取措施減少產量以滿足經銷商的需求。

Our third quarter operating profit decreased 5%, driven primarily by lower volume. We maintained our operating profit margin percent despite lower volume and some continued pressure on manufacturing costs. We anticipate meeting the full year operating margin targets communicated during our Investor Day last May.

我們的第三季營業利潤下降 5%，主要原因是銷量下降。儘管銷量下降且製造成本持續面臨壓力，但我們仍維持了營業利潤率。我們預計將實現去年 5 月投資者日期間宣布的全年營業利潤率目標。

Turning to the full year on Slide 4. We lowered our guidance for 2019 this morning. We now expect profit per share for the full year to be between $10.90 and $11.40 versus our prior guidance of the low end of the range of $12.06 to $13.06. Both ranges include the benefit of the $0.31 discrete tax item in the first quarter. Our revised outlook is primarily the result of caution being displayed by our dealers and customers due to uncertainty in the global economic environment. You'll recall that, during our second quarter earnings call, we expected dealers to reduce inventories by about $900 million during the last 6 months of the year. We now anticipate that dealers will reduce their inventories by about $1.3 billion versus second quarter levels. This includes a decrease of approximately $900 million during the fourth quarter. As a result, our production and shipment to dealers for the balance of the year will be lower than we previously anticipated.

轉向幻燈片 4 上的全年業績。我們今天上午下調了 2019 年的預期。我們現在預計全年每股利潤將在 10.90 美元至 11.40 美元之間，而我們之前預測的低端範圍是 12.06 美元至 13.06 美元。這兩個範圍都包括第一季 0.31 美元單獨稅項目的收益。我們修改後的前景主要是由於我們的經銷商和客戶由於全球經濟環境的不確定性而表現出謹慎的態度。您可能還記得，在我們第二季的財報電話會議上，我們預計經銷商將在今年最後 6 個月內減少約 9 億美元的庫存。我們現在預計經銷商的庫存將比第二季減少約 13 億美元。其中第四季減少約 9 億美元。因此，今年剩餘時間我們的產量和對經銷商的出貨量將低於我們先前的預期。

As I mentioned earlier, the retail sales figures we released this morning showed growth of 6% for machines and Energy & Transportation. However, based on input from dealers and customers, we now expect fourth quarter end user demand to be about flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Based on our revised expectations for dealer inventory and end user demand, we now expect sales and revenues to be modestly lower for the full year versus our prior expectation of modest sales and revenue growth in 2019. The global economic situation is very fluid due to a variety of factors. The decline in dealer inventory, along with our improved lead times, will position us to react quickly to positive or negative developments in the global economy during 2020. As I mentioned, we're taking actions to reduce production levels to reflect dealer order patterns and will be ready to increase production if order levels improve. We're also taking action in other areas to improve the competitiveness and flexibility of our cost structure, which Andrew will expand upon shortly.

正如我之前提到的，我們今天早上發布的零售額數據顯示，機械、能源和運輸業成長了 6%。然而，根據經銷商和客戶的意見，我們現在預計第四季度的終端用戶需求將與 2018 年第四季相比持平。根據我們對經銷商庫存和最終用戶需求的修正預期，我們現在預計全年銷售額和收入將略有下降，而我們之前預計 2019 年銷售額和收入將溫和增長。受多種因素影響，全球經濟情勢極不穩定。經銷商庫存的下降以及交貨時間的縮短將使我們能夠對 2020 年全球經濟的積極或消極發展做出快速反應。正如我所提到的，我們正在採取行動降低生產水準以反映經銷商的訂單模式，並且如果訂單水準提高，我們將準備好增加產量。我們也在其他領域採取行動，以提高我們成本結構的競爭力和靈活性，安德魯不久後就會對此進行詳細說明。

During our Investor Day in May, we shared our intention to drive long-term shareholder value by returning substantially all of our Machinery, Energy & Transportation free cash flow to shareholders through a competitive dividend and a more consistent share repurchase plan. Our balance sheet remained strong. During the third quarter, we paid a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, representing a 20% increase over the previous quarter. As previously communicated, we expect to increase our dividend by the high single-digits percent during each of the next 4 years, continuing as the dividend aristocrat. Our most recent dividend increase reflects the company's confidence in our ability to achieve improved free cash flows through the cycle, as we discussed in May.

在五月的投資者日上，我們表達了透過有競爭力的股利和更一致的股票回購計畫將大部分機械、能源和運輸自由現金流返還給股東，從而推動長期股東價值的意圖。我們的資產負債表依然強勁。第三季度，我們支付了每股 1.03 美元的季度股息，比上一季增加了 20%。正如之前所傳達的，我們預計在未來 4 年內，每年的股息都將以高個位數百分比增加，繼續保持股息貴族的風範。正如我們五月所討論的那樣，我們最近的股息成長反映了公司對我們在整個週期中實現改善自由現金流的能力的信心。

We also repurchased $1.2 billion of common stock in the third quarter. We continue to expect share repurchases during the second half of the year will be similar to the first half, which will reduce our total quarterly average diluted shares outstanding by about 9% since the first quarter of 2018.

我們也在第三季回購了價值 12 億美元的普通股。我們繼續預計下半年的股票回購將與上半年類似，這將使我們自 2018 年第一季以來的季度平均攤薄流通股總數減少約 9%。

Now let me comment further on our expectations for the external environment.

現在我進一步評論一下我們對外部環境的預期。

In Construction Industries, we continue to anticipate North America end user demand to be higher than 2018 because of strength in state and local infrastructure and nonresidential construction activity. At the same time, we expect dealers to reduce their inventories in North America from current levels. Turning to Asia Pacific: We expect stimulus to help the industry in China, although the industry has weakened outside of China and Japan. We expect dealers in China to build inventory due to an earlier Chinese New Year in 2020. This will partially offset the decline in North America. We anticipate that EAME construction activity will be lower than 2018, as we are seeing weakening demand in Europe, while Africa and the Middle East are likely to remain challenged. We anticipate Latin America will continue to grow but from a low level.

在建築業，由於州和地方基礎設施以及非住宅建築活動的強勁增長，我們繼續預計北美最終用戶需求將高於 2018 年。同時，我們預期經銷商將減少北美地區的庫存。轉向亞太地區：我們預計刺激措施將有助於中國的產業發展，儘管中國和日本以外的地區該產業已經走弱。我們預計，由於 2020 年農曆新年提前，中國經銷商將會增加庫存。這將部分抵消北美的下滑。我們預計，歐洲、非洲和中東地區的建築活動將低於 2018 年，因為我們看到歐洲的需求正在減弱，而非洲和中東地區可能仍面臨挑戰。我們預計拉丁美洲將繼續成長，但成長速度較低。

For Resource Industries, most commodity prices remain at investible levels, with the exception of thermal coal which remains weak. Quoting activity and end user demand for mining equipment remains positive, and large mining trucks have further room for growth. We continue to believe we are in the early stages of a multiyear recovery in mining. However, miners are cautious due to economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, we expect softer demand for nonresidential construction in quarry and aggregate equipment as dealers further reduce their inventory.

對資源產業而言，除動力煤價格仍疲軟外，大多數商品價格仍處於可投資水準。採礦設備的報價活動和終端用戶需求仍然保持積極，大型礦車還有進一步的成長空間。我們仍然相信，我們正處於採礦業多年復甦的初期階段。然而，由於經濟的不確定性，礦工們持謹慎態度。同時，由於經銷商進一步減少庫存，我們預期非住宅建築對採石場和骨材設備的需求將會減弱。

Turning to Energy & Transportation. We expect that oil and gas will continue to be volatile based on oil price fluctuations and reduced capital spending for well servicing. Takeaway capacity constraints in the Permian Basin have improved, but overall industry demand remains relatively depressed. For gas compression, reciprocating gas engine sales for gas gathering have slowed, but Solar Turbines' gas compression business in North America remained strong. Power generation continues to be an area of expected growth. We continue to anticipate that Solar Turbines and Progress Rail will both have a strong fourth quarter.

轉向能源和交通。我們預計，由於油價波動和油井服務資本支出減少，石油和天然氣市場將持續波動。二疊紀盆地的外帶產能限制有所改善，但整體產業需求仍相對低迷。對於氣體壓縮而言，用於天然氣收集的往復式燃氣發動機銷售有所放緩，但 Solar Turbines 在北美的氣體壓縮業務仍然強勁。發電仍然是預期成長的領域。我們繼續預計 Solar Turbines 和 Progress Rail 的第四季都將表現強勁。

Please turn to Slide 5. We continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth, which has 3 pillars: services, operational excellence and expanded offerings.

請翻到投影片 5。我們繼續執行我們的獲利成長策略，該策略有三大支柱：服務、卓越營運和擴大產品範圍。

At our Investor Day in May, we announced our goal to double Machinery, Energy & Transportation services sales between 2016 and 2026. This target is challenging yet achievable. By growing our services, we will help our customers improve asset utilization and availability while reducing their owning and operating costs. We're continuing to invest to drive services growth, including expanding our digital capabilities. We continue to connect assets and invest in our digital architecture to provide actionable insights to our customers. For example, our Cat Inspect app helps customers identify the maintenance needs of a machine and plan accordingly. We're seeing close to 100,000 inspections on the app per month.

在五月的投資者日上，我們宣布了在2016年至2026年間將機械、能源和運輸服務銷售額翻倍的目標。這個目標雖然具有挑戰性，但還是可以實現的。透過拓展我們的服務，我們將幫助我們的客戶提高資產利用率和可用性，同時降低他們的擁有和營運成本。我們將繼續投資推動服務成長，包括擴展我們的數位能力。我們繼續連接資產並投資於我們的數位架構，為我們的客戶提供可行的見解。例如，我們的 Cat Inspect 應用程式可協助客戶識別機器的維護需求並制定相應的計劃。我們每月在該應用程式上看到近100,000次檢查。

In the area of operational excellence, we use lean principles at our large engine facility in Lafayette, Indiana to improve safety, enhance engine quality and achieve greater manufacturing efficiencies. Lean improvements drove a 40% reduction in assembly time for our large 3600 engines, allowing us to produce more engines from the same facility while improving safety and quality. Our drive for operational excellence is a never-ending journey. Lean is helping us respond more quickly to changes in industry demand.

在卓越營運方面，我們在位於印第安納州拉斐特的大型引擎工廠採用精益原則來提高安全性、增強引擎品質並實現更高的製造效率。精益改進使我們的大型 3600 發動機的組裝時間縮短了 40%，使我們能夠在同一家工廠生產更多的發動機，同時提高安全性和品質。我們追求卓越營運的動力是一趟永無止境的旅程。精益正在幫助我們更快地回應產業需求的變化。

And the final pillar of our strategy is expanded offerings, enabling us to grow our business by addressing the diverse needs of our customers around the world. We introduced a new Dynamic Gas Blending or DGB engine for our well-servicing customers. The new Tier 4 engine, which is unique in our industry, allows customers to replace up to 85% of diesel fuel with natural gas. Our DGB product helps our oil and gas customers to be more successful by improving operating economics by offering fuel flexibility.

我們策略的最後一個支柱是擴大產品範圍，透過滿足全球客戶的不同需求來發展我們的業務。我們為優質服務的客戶推出了新型動態氣體混合或 DGB 引擎。新型 Tier 4 引擎在我們的行業中是獨一無二的，它允許客戶用天然氣取代高達 85% 的柴油。我們的 DGB 產品透過提供燃料靈活性來提高營運經濟性，從而幫助我們的石油和天然氣客戶取得更大的成功。

We're continuing to offer -- we're continuing our focus on autonomy, semiautonomy and remote operation as we expand our offerings. We believe Caterpillar leads our industry in all 3 areas. Some of our early customers have cited productivity benefits of up to 30% using CAT autonomous mining solutions. In addition, our customers are seeing real improvements in safety, in some cases up to a 90% reduction in safety incidents. One of our competitive advantages is that we can retrofit our competitors' equipment, making our autonomous solutions an option for mixed fleets. We're encouraged by the recent wins we've had in autonomy this year.

我們將繼續提供—在擴大產品範圍的同時，我們將繼續專注於自主、半自主和遠端操作。我們相信卡特彼勒在這三個領域都處於行業領先地位。我們的一些早期客戶表示，使用 CAT 自動化採礦解決方案可將生產力提高高達 30%。此外，我們的客戶看到了安全性的真正改善，在某些情況下安全事故減少了 90％。我們的競爭優勢之一是我們可以改造競爭對手的設備，使我們的自主解決方案成為混合車隊的選擇。我們對今年在自主權方面取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯，讓他仔細看看我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Jim. And good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，吉姆。大家早安。

I'll begin on Slide 6 with third quarter results, focusing in particular on what drove the top line. Then I'll turn to our revised outlook before finishing on capital deployment.

我將從投影片 6 開始介紹第三季的業績，特別關注推動營收成長的因素。然後，我將談談我們修改後的展望，最後再討論資本部署。

Sales and revenues for the third quarter declined by 6% to $12.8 billion. Operating profit decreased by 5% to $2 billion. Profit per share declined by 8% to $2.66. Overall, our results were lower than we'd expected. This quarter was largely a volume story. As you've seen on Slide 7, sales volume declined by $751 million. Construction Industries and Resource Industries drove this decline. The unfavorable currency movements were caused by the euro and the Australian dollar.

第三季的銷售和收入下降 6% 至 128 億美元。營業利潤下降5%至20億美元。每股盈餘下降 8% 至 2.66 美元。整體而言，我們的業績低於預期。本季主要關注的是銷量問題。正如您在第 7 張投影片上看到的，銷售額下降了 7.51 億美元。建築業和資源業是導致這一下降的原因。不利的貨幣走勢是由歐元和澳元引起的。

It's important to understand the moving parts behind the volume figures. As Jim mentioned, the primary driver was changes dealers made in their inventories. If the impacts of this year-on-year change were to be excluded from our top line results, the underlying sales performance will be in line with the growth we reported in retail machine sales statistics this morning. We expect to see dealing inventory decline further in the fourth quarter, and I'll talk about that later when I discuss changes to our 2019 outlook.

了解成交量數字背後的變動因素十分重要。正如吉姆所提到的，主要驅動因素是經銷商對其庫存所做的改變。如果將這一同比變化的影響排除在我們的營收業績之外，那麼基礎銷售業績將與我們今天上午報告的零售機器銷售統計數據的成長一致。我們預計第四季度交易庫存將進一步下降，稍後我將在討論 2019 年展望變化時談到這一點。

Now let me discuss the individual segments.

現在讓我來討論一下各個部分。

Firstly, on Slide 8. We saw strong margin performance from Energy & Transportation, which is not surprising as the second half tends to be stronger for that business. Despite a 2% sales decline, segment profit increased by $48 million or 5% mainly due to lower incentive compensation expense. The segment margin finished at 18.7% of total sales, an expansion of 120 basis points.

首先，在第 8 張幻燈片中，我們看到能源和運輸部門的利潤率表現強勁，這並不奇怪，因為該業務在下半年的表現往往會更加強勁。儘管銷售額下降了 2%，但分部利潤仍增加了 4,800 萬美元，即 5%，這主要歸功於激勵薪酬費用的降低。該部門利潤率佔總銷售額的 18.7%，擴大了 120 個基點。

In Resource Industries, shown on Slide 9, the impact of lower volumes and higher warranty expenses, which were partially offset by favorable price realization, drove the margin down by 220 basis points. Total sales decreased by 12%, and segment profit decreased by 25% to 13.5% of sales. The top line performance was driven by changes in dealer buying patterns. Dealers increased their inventories in the third quarter of 2018, whilst they decreased them in this quarter. Margins in Resource Industries are the most sensitive to fluctuations in volume. In the first and second quarters, margins were strong, driven by the leverage associated with volume growth. We'd expect the fourth quarter to show a similar pattern to the third quarter, but overall we expect full year margins for the segment to be higher than they were in 2018.

如投影片 9 所示，在資源產業中，產量下降和保固費用增加的影響（部分被優惠的價格實現所抵銷）導致利潤率下降了 220 個基點。總銷售額下降了12%，分部利潤下降了25%，佔銷售額的13.5%。營業收入的上漲主要受經銷商購買模式變化的推動。2018年第三季經銷商庫存增加，本季則減少。資源產業的利潤率對產量波動最為敏感。第一季和第二季度，利潤率強勁，這得益於銷售成長帶來的槓桿作用。我們預計第四季度的情況將與第三季類似，但總體而言，我們預計該部門的全年利潤率將高於 2018 年。

Now turning to Slide 10. For Construction Industries, sales declined by 7% due to reduced volumes. Our sales in the Asia Pacific region slowed versus a strong third quarter last year as dealers decreased inventories, particularly in China, versus an increase in the prior year. In North America we saw a solid third quarter in sales tied to road and nonresidential building construction. In the September rolling 3-month [sales per user data] published this morning, we showed an increase of 4% in worldwide dealer sales of construction equipment. We continue to develop and launch new products around the world, helping our customers [move in their] unique environments and enabling us to extend this growth over the long term. The segment margin fell by 80 basis points to 17.8%. While price continued to offset manufacturing costs, negative volume and mix were greater than the impact of lower short-term compensation expense.

現在轉到投影片 10。對於建築業來說，由於銷量下降，銷售額下降了 7%。與去年第三季強勁的表現相比，我們在亞太地區的銷售有所放緩，因為經銷商減少了庫存，尤其是在中國，而去年同期的庫存有所增加。在北美，我們看到第三季道路和非住宅建築建設相關的銷售強勁。在今天早上發布的 9 月滾動 3 個月[每用戶銷售數據]中，我們顯示全球經銷商的建築設備銷售額增長了 4%。我們繼續在世界各地開發和推出新產品，幫助我們的客戶在他們獨特的環境中移動，並使我們能夠長期延續這種成長。該部門利潤率下降80個基點至17.8%。儘管價格繼續抵消製造成本，但負面銷售和產品組合的影響大於短期薪酬費用降低的影響。

Let's move to Slide 11 for a discussion of our profit performance.

讓我們轉到投影片 11 來討論我們的利潤表現。

Altogether, third quarter operating profit decreased by 5%. The volume decline I spoke about earlier was the main driver of the change year-over-year. Our overall margin structure remains healthy. Although in absolute dollar terms both have moderated in the third quarter, price realization continues to offset increases in manufacturing costs. Obviously, pricing realization was lower as we lapped the midyear price increase in 2018, but equally we have seen the rate of growth in material and freight costs moderate as we've gone past the start of the significant changes in 2018.

整體而言，第三季營業利潤下降了5%。我之前提到的銷量下降是造成同比變化的主要原因。我們的整體利潤結構保持健康。儘管以絕對美元計算，第三季兩者價格均放緩，但價格實現仍抵消了製造成本的上漲。顯然，由於我們在 2018 年中期價格上漲，因此價格實現較低，但同樣，隨著我們度過 2018 年重大變化的開始，我們也看到材料和運費成本的增長率有所放緩。

Our profit margin was 15.8% of sales and revenues in the third quarter, flat versus the prior year.

我們第三季的利潤率為銷售額和收入的15.8％，與前一年持平。

Let me talk you through some of the headwinds and tailwinds outside of the volume that impacted operating profit. Starting with tailwinds: Period costs have declined, helped in part by lower short-term incentive compensation expense. As for headwinds, as I mentioned a moment ago, we incurred higher warranty expense from products in Resource Industries versus a very low level in 2018. We continue to address some targeted product quality issues, as we're focused on ensuring our customers enjoy the performance and quality they expect from our products. We also experienced some negative operating leverage associated with slowing production due to the lower volumes, and we are still experiencing some inefficiencies associated with supplier constraints and product launches.

讓我告訴你影響營業利潤的銷售之外的一些不利因素和有利因素。首先是順風：期間成本下降，部分原因是短期激勵薪資費用降低。至於不利因素，正如我剛才提到的，與 2018 年的低水準相比，我們資源產業產品的保固費用有所增加。我們將繼續解決一些有針對性的產品品質問題，因為我們專注於確保我們的客戶享受他們期望從我們的產品中獲得的性能和品質。由於產量較低導致生產放緩，我們也經歷了一些負面的經營槓桿，而且我們仍然遇到與供應商限制和產品發布相關的一些效率低下的問題。

Turning to the outlook on Slide 12. Let me comment briefly on the full year outlook a bit before turning to our fourth quarter expectations.

轉向第 12 張幻燈片上的展望。在談到我們對第四季度的預期之前，讓我先簡單評論一下全年前景。

As Jim mentioned, we have lowered the annual guidance. Our new outlook is based on changes in our assumptions around end user demand and revised expectations for dealer inventory, reflecting caution on the part of our dealers and our end-user customers. Related to our lower dealer inventory expectations, this will mean that we have -- will have less of an overhang from dealer inventory as we move into 2020. However, the other implication of this change is that we need to manage production and reduce our shipments to dealers through the balance of the year. Jim also mentioned that end user demand is expected to dampen. We believe this reflects end customers delaying purchases of capital equipment in light of the uncertainty they're seeing in the business environment.

正如吉姆所提到的，我們已經下調了年度指導價。我們的新展望是基於我們對最終用戶需求的假設變化以及對經銷商庫存的修訂預期，反映了我們的經銷商和最終用戶客戶的謹慎態度。與我們對經銷商庫存較低的預期相關，這意味著，當我們進入 2020 年時，經銷商庫存的過剩將會減少。然而，這項變更的另一個含義是，我們需要管理生產，並在全年減少對經銷商的出貨量。吉姆也提到，最終用戶需求預計會減弱。我們認為，這反映出終端客戶由於商業環境的不確定性而推遲購買資本設備。

Our assumption of modestly lower sales and revenues for the full year 2019 flows from these changes to our expectations. Both of these factors are also flowing to the order backlog, which was $14.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, about $400 million lower than the second quarter. Order backlog decreased mostly in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. We believe this decline reflects a combination of our improved availability, dealer expectations for lower demand from end markets in the fourth quarter and dealers desire to reduce inventory levels. However, it is difficult to disaggregate this decline into each of these components. Therefore, we will continue to closely monitor end user demand, commercial shipments, dealer inventory, orders and backlog; and adjust our production levels accordingly. As many of you know, our dealers are independent entities and control their own inventories. Our goal remains to strike a balance between satisfying dealer demand and avoiding excess inventory in the system.

由於我們的預期發生了這些變化，我們假設 2019 年全年銷售額和收入將略有下降。這兩個因素也導致了訂單積壓，截至第三季末，訂單積壓為 146 億美元，比第二季低約 4 億美元。訂單積壓減少主要是建築業和資源業。我們認為，這種下降反映了我們供應量的提高、經銷商對第四季度終端市場需求下降的預期以及經銷商希望降低庫存水平等多種因素的綜合作用。然而，很難將這種下降分解成每個組成部分。因此，我們將繼續密切關注最終用戶需求、商業出貨量、經銷商庫存、訂單和積壓訂單；並相應地調整我們的生產水準。眾所周知，我們的經銷商都是獨立實體，控制自己的庫存。我們的目標仍然是在滿足經銷商需求和避免系統庫存過剩之間取得平衡。

We're also taking actions in other areas of our cost structure, particularly around things like general and administrative cost actions. While we've begun projects in a couple of these areas, we don't expect to recognize the benefits in the short term. We're committed to maintaining a competitive and flexible cost structure, and we are controlling discretionary spend. As we said on Investor Day, we are committed to improving margins by between 3 to 6 percentage points compared to historical performance.

我們也在成本結構的其他領域採取行動，特別是一般和行政成本行動等方面。雖然我們已經在其中幾個領域啟動了項目，但我們並不期望在短期內就能看到效益。我們致力於維持有競爭力且靈活的成本結構，並控制可自由支配的開支。正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們致力於將利潤率提高 3 至 6 個百分點（與歷史業績相比）。

Now let me share a few of our assumptions on the fourth quarter performance. Based on those changes in dealer behavior I mentioned, we now expect about a $900 million reduction in dealer inventories in the fourth quarter versus a $200 million inventory build in Q4 last year. We also now assume flattish end user demand in the fourth quarter year-on-year. Previously, we had assumed end user demand would increase at a similar rate that we have seen throughout the year or about 4%. As we no longer expect to see dealer inventories -- inventory reduce by higher sales to end-users, this means that almost all of the inventory reduction has to come from lower shipments from Caterpillar to our dealers given that we now anticipate about a mid-single-digit decline in sales in the fourth quarter.

現在，讓我分享一下我們對第四季表現的一些假設。根據我提到的經銷商行為的變化，我們現在預計第四季度經銷商庫存將減少約 9 億美元，而去年第四季庫存增加了 2 億美元。我們現在也假設第四季的終端用戶需求較去年同期持平。此前，我們曾假設最終用戶需求將以與全年類似的速度成長，即 4% 左右。由於我們不再預期經銷商庫存——由於對最終用戶的銷售額增加而減少的庫存，這意味著幾乎所有的庫存減少都必須來自卡特彼勒對我們經銷商的出貨量減少，因為我們現在預計第四季度的銷售額將出現中等個位數的下降。

So the assumptions for lower dealer inventory levels and lower end user demand feed into lowered guidance, so we'll need to cut production further in the fourth quarter. We do expect to see some negative operating leverage as a result of lower production. However, we expect this to be partially offset by favorability in material costs as we lap the 2018 increases in freight and material costs. In addition, we expect slightly higher warranty costs, given the increase in warranty expense year-to-date, against a very low comparative in 2018.

因此，經銷商庫存水準較低和最終用戶需求較低的假設導致指導價下調，所以我們需要在第四季度進一步削減產量。我們確實預期產量下降將導致一些負面的經營槓桿。然而，我們預計，由於 2018 年運費和材料成本上漲，這一優勢將被材料成本的有利影響部分抵消。此外，鑑於今年迄今的保固費用有所增加，而 2018 年的保固成本卻非常低，我們預計保固成本將略有上升。

Obviously, it's very disappointing to reduce our guidance for the year. Our July guidance took into account the fact we have -- we expected dealer inventory to reduce in the balance of the year. However, the greater-than-expected reduction in dealer orders in the third quarter and the shift down in anticipated end user demand understandably dampens our expectations.

顯然，下調今年的業績預期讓我們非常失望。我們七月的預期考慮到了這樣一個事實——我們預計經銷商庫存將在今年餘下時間減少。然而，第三季經銷商訂單減少幅度超出預期，以及預期終端用戶需求下降，自然會降低我們的預期。

That brings me to our capital structure on Slide 13.

這讓我想到了第 13 張投影片上的我們的資本結構。

We are committed to returning substantially all of our Machinery, Energy & Transportation free cash flow to shareholders through a competitive dividend along with more consistent share repurchases. We believe that's the best way to create long-term shareholder value. Excluding the discretionary contribution to the U.S. pension plans, which I'll discuss in a moment, our free cash flow remained strong. That means we've been able to fund a competitive and growing dividend, and indeed we paid about $600 million of dividends this quarter. Our recent 20% dividend increase reflects the company's confidence in our ability to maintain strong cash flows across the cycles. And to remind you: We've said we intend to increase the dividend by at least high single-digit percentage in each of the 4 years.

我們致力於透過有競爭力的股息以及更持續的股票回購將機械、能源和運輸業務的大部分自由現金流返還給股東。我們相信這是創造長期股東價值的最佳方式。除對美國退休金計畫的自由支配繳款（稍後我將討論）外，我們的自由現金流依然強勁。這意味著我們有能力支付具有競爭力且不斷增長的股息，事實上，本季度我們確實支付了約 6 億美元的股息。我們最近將股息提高 20%，這反映了公司對我們在整個週期中保持強勁現金流的能力的信心。並且提醒您：我們已經說過，我們打算在未來 4 年內每年將股息至少增加個位數的高百分比。

We repurchased $1.2 billion of our common stock in the third quarter. Our quarterly share repurchases -- repurchase plans consider our projected cash flows and takes into account the intrinsic value of our shares. We will continue to be flexible, and in periods of time our cash flow is more variable as a result of dynamics in the external environment, we'll be able to use our balance sheet to maintain flexibility and returning substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders over time. We continue to project share purchases for the second half to be similar to the first half, and we continue to expect to reduce our total quarterly average diluted shares outstanding by about 9% from the first quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, we continue to invest in services, operational improvements and expanded offerings. And we ended the quarter with $7.9 billion of cash on hand.

我們在第三季回購了價值 12 億美元的普通股。我們的季度股票回購—回購計劃考慮了我們的預期現金流量並考慮到我們股票的內在價值。我們將繼續保持靈活性，並且在一段時間內，由於外部環境的動態變化，我們的現金流更加不穩定，我們將能夠利用我們的資產負債表來保持靈活性，並隨著時間的推移將我們的大部分自由現金流返還給股東。我們繼續預計下半年的股票購買量將與上半年相似，並且我們繼續預計我們的季度平均攤薄流通股總數將較 2018 年第一季減少約 9%。同時，我們繼續投資於服務、營運改善和擴展產品範圍。截至本季末，我們的現金餘額為 79 億美元。

You may have seen our announcement last month that we had issued $1.5 billion of 10-year and 30-year notes in the third quarter, enabling a $1.5 billion voluntary contribution to the U.S. pension plans. This action increases the plans' funded status, allowing Caterpillar to further execute our strategy of reducing volatility in our pension liability. A secondary benefit of the contribution is we -- that we now don't expect to make any further contributions to the U.S. pension plans for a substantial period of time, therefore freeing up cash for discretionary deployment. This contribution has no impact on our credit rating metrics. Finally, it was funded at attractive interest rates; and was actually part of our cost-saving initiatives, as it lowers our long-term pension insurance-related costs.

您可能已經看到我們上個月發布的公告，我們在第三季發行了 15 億美元的 10 年期和 30 年期債券，為美國退休金計畫自願貢獻 15 億美元。這項措施提高了計畫的資金狀況，使卡特彼勒能夠進一步執行降低退休金負債波動性的策略。這筆繳款的另一個好處是——我們現在預計在相當長的一段時間內不需要再向美國退休金計劃繳納任何款項，因此可以釋放現金用於自由部署。此項貢獻對我們的信用評等指標沒有影響。最後，它以很有吸引力的利率獲得了融資；這實際上是我們節約成本舉措的一部分，因為它降低了我們長期養老保險相關的成本。

So finally, let's turn to Slide 14 and recap today's key points.

最後，讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片，回顧今天的重點。

Third quarter's sales and revenue declined by 6%, and profit per share by 8%, due to volume declines driven by changes in dealer buying patterns. We reduced our 2019 profit per share outlook range to a range of $10.90 to $11.40 based on expectations that dealers would further reduce their inventory levels and that end market demand would flatten in the fourth quarter. We're proactively managing production to address expected changes in demand. We're working on the competitiveness of our cost structure, and a relentless execution of the operating and execution model remains at the center of everything we do.

由於經銷商購買模式變化導致銷量下降，第三季銷售額和收入下降 6%，每股利潤下降 8%。基於經銷商將進一步降低庫存水準且終端市場需求在第四季度趨於平穩的預期，我們將 2019 年每股利潤預期範圍下調至 10.90 美元至 11.40 美元。我們正在積極管理生產以應對預期的需求變化。我們致力於提高成本結構的競爭力，堅持不懈地執行營運和執行模式仍然是我們所做的一切的核心。

Our overall financial position remains strong, and we remain very much committed to our strategy of profitable growth and deployment of capital back to shareholders through a growing dividend and consistent share repurchases.

我們的整體財務狀況依然強勁，我們仍然致力於獲利成長策略，並透過增加股利和持續回購股票將資本回饋給股東。

With that, I'll hand it over to the operator for the start of the Q&A session.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給接線員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

I guess, a couple questions. First, on the resource side, I think that sales and margin surprised people a little, while the overall quarter was fairly good. You talked about warranty. You talked about production cuts. Is there any way you can sort of quantify what the impact of that was in the quarter on the margin front? And is there anything that you're seeing sort of from the order intake side to suggest that there is more downside risk on the sales side for 2020 and what that implies for margins? And then my second question, bigger picture sort of on 2020. I guess the assumption is you go into 2020 with producing in line with retail demand. Is there any way you can help us with other puts and takes? It sounds like there is a cost-cutting program that could be additive, sort of incentive comp, share count lower. I'm just trying to think about the puts and takes that we should consider positive or negative. We can make our own assumption on volumes.

我想，有幾個問題。首先，在資源方面，我認為銷售額和利潤率有點令人意外，但整體季度表現相當不錯。您談到了保固。您談到了減產。有什麼方法可以量化這對本季利潤率的影響嗎？從訂單量來看，您是否發現有什麼跡象表明 2020 年銷售方面存在更多下行風險，這對利潤率意味著什麼？我的第二個問題是，2020 年的大局。我猜假設是到 2020 年你的生產將與零售需求一致。您有其他方法可以幫助我們解決其他問題嗎？這聽起來像是有一個成本削減計劃，可以是附加的、激勵補償的、降低股票數量的。我只是試著思考我們應該以正面還是負面的眼光看待利弊。我們可以對數量做出自己的假設。

Well, Jamie, just a couple of comments. For -- I think it's important to remember for Resource Industries that it's a mix of mining products and heavy construction in quarry and aggregates. So you've seen weaker sales unexpected on the heavy construction and aggregate side of the business. Mining sales on a year-to-date basis continue to be positive, and rebuilds and part sales remained strong across the board. In the third quarter, we did see dealers reduce inventory related to heavy construction and some isolated pockets in mining for coal-related inventory. Again, I just want to emphasize that, again, RI does include both that heavy construction and mining, so it's not just a mining story.

好吧，傑米，我只想說幾點。對於——我認為對於資源產業來說，重要的是要記住，它是礦山產品和採石場和骨料的重型建築的混合體。因此，您會看到重型建築和骨材業務的銷售出現意外下滑。從年初至今，採礦業銷售持續保持積極態勢，重建和零件銷售全面保持強勁。在第三季度，我們確實看到經銷商減少了與重型建築相關的庫存以及一些孤立的採礦領域的煤炭相關庫存。再次強調，我只想強調，RI 確實包括重型建築和採礦，因此這不僅僅是一個採礦故事。

And moving on to the margins, Jamie. It really is all around volume and mix. So the biggest driver both on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis all relates to that. All the other items are puts and takes virtually as we move through. Remember, versus last year, we have lower short-term incentive compensation, but that is offset partly by a higher warranty, but versus quarter-on-quarter, all the other items are -- really washes all down to volume. And then moving into 2020, I mean, obviously at this stage, as we've said, the situation (inaudible) economic outlook is very uncertain, so we are not going to be providing sort of sales guidance or top line or outlook guidance at this stage. We're still in the middle of our budgeting process, and things are very fluid. However, on some of the things, yes, we are continuing to look at our cost structure. As I've mentioned, we are looking at things like G&A and back-office costs, procurement costs and so forth. All of those are initiatives that are ongoing and will continue to go. They are part of maintaining a flexible and competitive cost structure. And then as far as our share count, as you've said, by the end of this year, we'll have reduced the share count by about 9%. That will have an impact of about -- obviously they're split between 2018 and 2019, so there will be a bit of a tailwind from that. Next year, there will be a little bit negative on short-term incentive compensation. We expect this year to be about $150 million lower than our base plan. That obviously will be reset for next year.

接下來是邊緣話題，傑米。這確實與體積和混合有關。因此，無論是同比還是環比，最大的驅動因素都與此有關。所有其他物品都是在我們移動過程中虛擬地放入和取出的。請記住，與去年相比，我們的短期激勵薪酬較低，但這部分被更高的保固所抵消，但與上一季相比，所有其他項目實際上都歸結為銷量。然後進入 2020 年，我的意思是，顯然在現階段，正如我們所說，情況（聽不清楚）經濟前景非常不確定，因此現階段我們不會提供某種銷售指導、營收或前景指導。我們的預算過程仍處於中期，情況非常不穩定。然而，對於某些事情，是的，我們正在繼續審視我們的成本結構。正如我所提到的，我們正在關注諸如一般行政費用、後台成本、採購成本等等。所有這些舉措都在進行中，並將繼續進行下去。它們是維持靈活且有競爭力的成本結構的一部分。至於我們的股票數量，正如您所說，到今年年底，我們的股票數量將減少約 9%。這會產生影響——顯然它們會分佈在 2018 年和 2019 年之間，因此這會帶來一些順風。明年短期激勵薪酬會有點負面。我們預計今年的收入將比基本計劃低約 1.5 億美元。顯然，明年這一目標將會重新設定。

Okay, but I mean in -- the goal for 2020 to produce in line with retail demand, so sort of in a flat market it's not unreasonable to assume you could probably grow earnings.

好的，但我的意思是——2020 年的目標是根據零售需求進行生產，因此在平穩的市場中，假設你的收益可能會增加並不是不合理的。

Obviously it depends what your assumptions are on top line, yes. So if your assumption is we have a flat retail market, that obviously would flow through, yes.

顯然這取決於你對頂線的假設，是的。所以如果你假設我們的零售市場持平，那麼這顯然會順利進行，是的。

Your next question is coming from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

Thanks for the commentary on dealer inventory and otherwise. It seems like you made a positive step. And dealer inventories are going down, up last quarter, going down now; and yet that was only maybe a -- I don't know, maybe 1/4 of the total cut to revenues. So I'm trying to square the circle here. The dealer sales in retail seemed pretty good in your release this morning, up mid-single digit. You're reducing dealer inventory and those sales are up. And so I guess dealers must have really gotten more conservative on orders, but could you just talk about dealer inventory cut being 1/4 of that overall revenue cut? And then did you see any cancellations in Solar or any direct sales or larger projects?

感謝您對經銷商庫存和其他方面的評論。看來你已經邁出了積極的一步。經銷商庫存正在下降，上個季度有所上升，現在有所下降；但這可能只是——我不知道，也許只是總收入削減的 1/4。所以我在這裡試圖解決這個問題。從今天早上發布的數據來看，零售經銷商的銷售額似乎相當不錯，成長了個位數中段。您正在減少經銷商庫存，但銷售額卻上升了。因此，我猜經銷商在訂單方面肯定變得更加保守了，但您能否談談經銷商庫存削減佔總收入削減的 1/4？那麼，您是否看到任何太陽能或直接銷售或大型專案的取消？

Yes. So Rob, if you think about -- I think you're talking about over the full year rather than actually in the quarter because obviously, in the quarter, we saw a quite significant year-on-year impact of dealer inventory because it was up $0.8 billion last year and down $0.4 billion. So when we started the year, if you remember, our assumption was that actually we would have flat dealer inventories and a modest growth in sales. And obviously now what we're saying is with a $500 million build of sales we are seeing slightly lower sales for the full year. Yes, we are -- our view is that probably we've lost about 2% on retail versus where our base case guidance started the year. So effectively that's been the big driver. That mostly relates to expectations out there and particularly obviously in the fourth quarter where it's dampened quiet -- dampened down to flat. We've been running a sort of 4% to 6% for the full year. Our full year expectation was probably at the top end of that range, and we're not going to meet that.

是的。所以 Rob，如果你想想——我認為你談論的是全年，而不是實際上的季度，因為顯然，在本季度，我們看到經銷商庫存的同比影響相當顯著，因為去年增加了 8 億美元，減少了 4 億美元。因此，如果您還記得的話，當我們開始新的一年的時候，我們的假設是，我們的經銷商庫存實際上會持平，而銷售額會適度增長。顯然，現在我們要說的是，由於銷售額增加了 5 億美元，因此全年銷售額會略有下降。是的，我們的觀點是，與今年年初的基本預測相比，我們的零售額可能損失了約 2%。因此這實際上已經成為最大的驅動力。這主要與外界的預期有關，尤其是在第四季度，預期變得平靜——降至平穩。我們全年的成長率大約是 4% 到 6%。我們的全年預期可能處於該範圍的最高端，但我們不會實現這一目標。

Ok.

好的。

I think -- yes. Or you asked a question about larger order for Solar. No, Solar's business continues to remain strong.

我認為——是的。或者您詢問有關太陽能更大訂單的問題。不，Solar 的業務繼續保持強勁。

Your next question is coming from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I think people are just trying to figure out the -- regardless where The Street is for 2020, you've now kind of put out a $2.40 midpoint adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter. And just trying to get a sense; sort of annualize that, say $9.60. The margins for the fourth quarter seem to be implied around 13% to 13.5%. Just trying to get a feel from you. And I know 2020 is a lot of planning is still going on, but the approach you took to the fourth quarter, to get a sense of that $9.60 run rate -- or do we feel like we're trying to bottom the earnings a bit here if the retail can just be flattish, even down a bit next year? How do you view your margins in the fourth quarter? That 13% to 13.5% implied, is that -- I mean, how much of a hit? Because obviously $900 million in inventory reductions is a bit of a drag that maybe you wouldn't see again in 2020, that big a drag in 1 quarter. Can you just take us through your thought process on how you view the fourth quarter and those margins?

我認為人們只是想弄清楚——無論華爾街對 2020 年的看法如何，你現在已經公佈了第四季度的中點調整後每股收益為 2.40 美元。只是想了解一下；將其年化，例如 9.60 美元。第四季的利潤率似乎在 13% 至 13.5% 左右。只是想了解一下你的感受。我知道 2020 年還有很多規劃正在進行中，但是您對第四季度採取的方法，是為了了解 9.60 美元的運行率——或者我們是否覺得如果零售額明年持平甚至略有下降，我們正試圖在這裡稍微觸底盈利？您如何看待第四季的利潤率？13% 至 13.5% 意味著——我的意思是，打擊有多大？因為顯然 9 億美元的庫存減少會造成一些拖累，也許在 2020 年不會再看到這種拖累，在一個季度內造成這麼大的拖累。您能否向我們介紹一下您對第四季和利潤率的看法？

Yes, Dave. So the -- thank you. The -- so the fourth quarter, as you always -- as you know, is always our lowest quarter from a margin perspective. As we think through the year and our production cycles and the way obviously through accounting and the way we benefit from operating leverage by volume, effectively you tend to see Q1 and Q2 stronger margins, Q3 slightly lower. And particularly in CI you normally see a historic -- at least a 1.5 percentage points drop in margin in Q4. So that is why normally Q4 margins are lower than for the balance of the year. As we look for this year, obviously the dealer inventory would normally be a further reduction in margin because you're having an element of deleverage. However, there are some things running the other way, particularly things like lower STIP, short-term incentive compensation. We also have lapped a lot of the material and freight cost increases from last year, so that does help from an overall margin perspective. And then we are seeing, obviously, last year, we did have some negative in Cat Financial in particular as well. And then obviously, as you get to PPS, you're also going to see the benefit of lower share count. So all of those factors are weighing in as we think about the fourth quarter. I would not read through fourth quarter margins as being our likely margin structure as we move into 2020. We would expect normal seasonable patterns to happen in 2020. Obviously it then just depends on what the volume is and how that volume throughput flows through into variable margins.

是的，戴夫。所以—謝謝。如您所知，從利潤率的角度來看，第四季始終是我們最低的季度。當我們思考全年的生產週期，顯然透過會計計算的方式，以及我們從產量經營槓桿中獲益的方式時，你實際上往往會看到第一季和第二季的利潤率更高，而第三季的利潤率略低。特別是在 CI，您通常會看到歷史性的——第四季度的利潤率至少下降 1.5 個百分點。所以這就是為什麼第四季的利潤率通常低於全年其他季度的利潤率。展望今年，由於存在去槓桿因素，經銷商庫存的利潤率顯然會進一步降低。然而，有些事情卻朝著相反的方向發展，特別是較低的STIP、短期激勵性薪酬等。我們也承擔了去年大量增加的材料和運費成本，因此從整體利潤率的角度來看這確實有幫助。然後我們顯然看到，去年我們對 Cat Financial 也確實有一些負面影響。然後顯然，當您獲得 PPS 時，您還會看到較低共享數量的好處。因此，當我們考慮第四季度時，所有這些因素都會發揮作用。我不會將第四季度的利潤率視為我們進入 2020 年的可能的利潤率結構。我們預計 2020 年將出現正常的季節模式。顯然，這只取決於數量是多少，以及數量吞吐量如何流入可變利潤。

Well, that was sort of the spirit of the question. I mean the fourth quarter is usually low, as someone is taking a little bigger hit, as we said, of the inventory reduction. Because the math I'm running, even if sales are down 5% next year, even if the margins stay that low, you're still run-rating $9.60, all right? That's assuming share repo and everything else. So just trying to get a sense of we could all make our view of retail demand, but it just seems like, if that's the fourth quarter with that margin -- and you just answered my question. You don't think the margins should go lower than that. It is sort of trying to at least baseline this run rate earnings power. I mean a lot could change, but I appreciate the answer. I just wanted to get a sense of how you view that fourth quarter margin, so okay.

嗯，這大概就是問題的核心。我的意思是，第四季度通常比較低，因為正如我們所說，有人因庫存減少而受到更大的打擊。因為根據我的計算，即便明年銷售額下降 5%，即便利潤率維持那麼低，你的營業額仍能達到 9.60 美元，好嗎？這是假設股票回購和其他一切。所以只是想了解我們都可以對零售需求做出自己的看法，但看起來，如果這是第四季度的利潤率——你剛剛回答了我的問題。您認為利潤率不應該低於這個水準。這在某種程度上試圖至少確定運行率獲利能力的基準。我的意思是很多事情可能會改變，但我很感謝您的回答。我只是想了解您如何看待第四季度的利潤率，好的。

Your next question is coming from Joel Tiss from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

I just wondered around pricing. Is sort of the bulk of the pricing -- or any color you can give us on is that coming from new products and features? Or is that just coming more from raw material pass-throughs? And any sort of setup into 2020, how you're looking at pricing potential for 2020?

我只是對價格有些疑惑。定價的大部分是否來自新產品和新功能？能透露一下嗎？還是這僅僅來自於原料的傳遞？2020 年有任何安排嗎？您如何看待 2020 年的定價潛力？

Yes. So obviously, as I've mentioned, we did see the rate of price moderate in Q3. That was as effectively we've lapped the price increase that happened in the midyear as well, and obviously we are now working through the end -- the "beginning of the year" price increase. We have -- [given that it gave us an] indication of price increases in 2020, we expect price to be much more moderate in 2020. Obviously, it's depending -- or that will also then depend on the competitive environment as well as we move into 2020, and we'll provide a little bit more feel of that when we get to our guidance in January.

是的。因此顯然，正如我所提到的，我們確實看到第三季的價格率有所緩和。這也意味著我們已經有效地應對了年中發生的價格上漲，而且顯然我們現在正在努力應對年末——「年初」的價格上漲。鑑於它預示著 2020 年價格將上漲，我們預計 2020 年的價格將更加溫和。顯然，這取決於——或者這也將取決於我們進入2020年的競爭環境，當我們在一月份獲得指導時，我們將提供更多的感受。

And no color around the is it more from new features and new products. Or is it just raw material related?

周圍沒有色彩，更多的是新功能和新產品。或僅與原材料有關？

Yes. I mean we tend -- that price that we recognize on the way we give you is -- tends to be around real price increases rather than actually mix increases. So obviously mix will go, which -- with new product would tend to go into the mix bucket when we look at mix and volume rather than price.

是的。我的意思是，我們在向您提供價格時所認識到的價格往往是圍繞實際價格上漲，而不是實際的混合上漲。因此，當我們考慮混合和數量而不是價格時，顯然混合將會消失，而新產品往往會進入混合桶。

Okay. And then just quick, for Jim. Any pieces of the portfolio that you feel like over the next 5 years need to be beefed up; or things, as you're getting deeper into your operational excellence, that maybe wouldn't fit? And you don't have to name the pieces but just kind of just more of a structural question of changing the portfolio versus just returning cash.

好的。然後很快，對於吉姆來說。您認為未來 5 年內投資組合中的任何部分都需要加強；或者，隨著您對卓越營運的深入了解，有些事情可能不再適合您？你不必說出各個部分的名稱，而只需考慮改變投資組合而非僅僅返還現金的結構性問題。

Yes. We continually evaluate our portfolio. We're always thinking about resource allocation. That's, of course, part of the O&E Model. We've talked a lot about our intent to continue to invest in services to grow the aftermarket because that represents the best opportunity for future profitable growth for both us and our dealers, but in terms of changing the portfolio, we're always evaluating what potential changes we could make to drive more shareholder value.

是的。我們不斷評估我們的投資組合。我們一直在思考資源分配。當然，這是 O&E 模型的一部分。我們已經多次談論了我們繼續投資於服務以發展售後市場的意圖，因為這對我們和我們的經銷商來說都是未來盈利增長的最佳機會，但在改變投資組合方面，我們一直在評估可以做出哪些潛在的改變以推動更多的股東價值。

Your next question is coming from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just wanted to go back to the dealer inventory destock expected in the fourth quarter. It seems like most of it was coming from resources and then also from APAC construction this quarter. Can you just comment on how much of that will be coming additionally from those regions versus North America construction and whether you're also expecting a decent amount there? And then just back on resources, where you called out the softer demand in nonresi construction and quarry and aggregate versus thermal coal prices, can you just help us understand how big of a factor each of those was; and just again as we're thinking about the fourth quarter and into 2020, how big of a drag this can still be; or whether you're expecting a replacement cycle to offset that?

只是想回到預計第四季經銷商庫存去庫存的問題。本季度，似乎大部分收入來自資源，也來自亞太地區建築。您能否評論一下，與北美建築相比，這些地區的額外建築收入將有多少，以及您是否預計那裡也會有相當數量的建築收入？然後回到資源問題，您提到非住宅建築、採石場和骨材的需求較動力煤價格疲軟，您能否幫助我們理解每個因素的影響有多大？當我們再次思考第四季和 2020 年時，這還會帶來多大的拖累？或者您期望更換週期能夠抵消這一點？

Yes. So let me start on the dealer inventory, Courtney. The -- first, fourth quarter expectations are that most of the dealer inventory reduction will come in North America, which will impact North American revenue -- sales and revenues in Q4. We actually do expect an inventory build again in -- particularly in China, in Q4, and that's partly in recognition of the fact that there's an early Chinese New Year. And obviously that means the selling season starts earlier in China next year. So that will be a factor as we move into Q4. With regards to your question on RI, I think the -- our view is overall mining probably will be -- remain positive for the year. If you look at mining CapEx and expectations of mining CapEx, that remains positive, so our expectation is that will effectively reflect through. If we look at things like parked fleet, it's at the lowest level since we've ever been recording it which is since 2013. So there is latent demand there. And as we said, we do think obviously miners are being cautious on their capital investments, but there is the demand and replacement cycle that is needed at some stage, particularly on large mining trucks. I will just remind you that is only a portion of our RI business. I know it's often what people tend to use as the sort of marker but relatively small. I think obviously, as far as nonresi construction is concerned, our expectation probably is relatively that will be a drag, particularly in Q4, as effectively -- particularly that is the area where there's still more inventory to come out.

是的。那麼，讓我開始了解經銷商庫存，考特尼。第一季、第四季的預期是，大部分經銷商庫存減少將發生在北美，這將影響北美第四季的銷售和收入。我們實際上確實預計庫存將再次增加——特別是在中國，在第四季度，這在一定程度上是由於農曆新年提前到來。這顯然意味著明年中國的銷售季節將更早開始。所以這將成為我們進入第四季的一個因素。關於您對 RI 的問題，我認為——我們的觀點是，今年的整體採礦業可能仍將保持積極態勢。如果你看一下採礦資本支出和對採礦資本支出的預期，這仍然是正面的，所以我們的預期是這將有效地反映出來。如果我們看一下停放車隊之類的情況，就會發現它處於自 2013 年以來有記錄以來的最低水平。因此那裡存在潛在需求。正如我們所說的，我們確實認為礦工顯然對資本投資持謹慎態度，但在某個階段需要需求和更換週期，特別是大型採礦卡車。我只是想提醒你，這只是我們 RI 業務的一部分。我知道它通常是人們傾向於使用的標記，但相對較小。我認為，顯然就非住宅建築而言，我們的預期可能是相對而言這將是一個拖累，特別是在第四季度——尤其是該領域仍有更多庫存待釋放。

If I can just add a couple comments, Courtney, on mining. So again, we believe we're in the early stages of our multiyear recovery in mining. Just given the economic turmoil going on, our mining customers are being cautious, and so they are hesitant to pull the trigger on new equipment, although again we're seeing increased sales. So we're seeing improvement in that business. One thing is -- to also keep in mind is that, when miners sometimes delay, that creates opportunities for us for rebuilds and parts. So that isn't all negative either. So again, it's an opportunity either way.

考特尼，如果我可以就採礦發表幾點評論的話。因此，我們再次相信，我們正處於採礦業多年復甦的早期階段。鑑於正在發生的經濟動盪，我們的採礦客戶都很謹慎，因此儘管我們的銷售額再次出現成長，但他們仍不願購買新設備。因此我們看到該業務正在改善。還要記住的一件事是，當礦工有時會延誤時，這為我們重建和提供零件創造了機會。所以這也不全然是負面的。所以，無論如何，這都是一個機會。

Would you characterize aftermarket as still being stronger than you would have expected otherwise?

您是否認為售後市場仍比您預期的強勁？

I say that it continues to be strong. It's how I would characterize it. It continues to be strong, about as we expected.

我認為它會繼續保持強勁。這就是我的描述。它繼續保持強勁，正如我們預期的那樣。

Your next question is coming from Ross Gilardi from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美銀美林的羅斯吉拉迪。

I just want to ask on the dividend, in committing to a high single-digit increase over the next 4 years. I mean, if you apply a 7% to 9% increase, your dividend is $5.40 to $5.80 in 4 years. I would assume you plan on covering the dividend with earnings internally even at the trough of the cycle. And if that's the case, it would seem like you're implying at least $6 of trough earnings, so I just wanted -- I was hoping you could just comment on the thought process. And in your mind, is there some type of minimum earnings payout ratio that you're assuming at the trough of the cycle in making that commitment to raise the dividend at that level given obviously you have no visibility on what's going to happen in the next 3 or 4 years?

我只想問一下股息問題，承諾未來四年內股息將維持高個位數成長。我的意思是，如果您應用 7% 到 9% 的成長，那麼 4 年內您的股息將是 5.40 美元到 5.80 美元。我認為，即使在周期的低谷，您也計劃用內部收益來支付股息。如果是這樣的話，那似乎暗示了至少 6 美元的低谷收益，所以我只是想——我希望您能對這個思考過程發表評論。在承諾將股息提高至該水平之前，您是否認為在周期低谷時，是否存在某種最低收益支付率，因為您顯然無法預見未來 3 到 4 年會發生什麼？

Ross, so if you remember, when we -- at Investor Day, we actually talked about it in terms of cash coverage rather than actually in earnings coverage. And actually in cash coverage, even when our expectations are of the low cycle, is that we would expect to actually pay out no more than 50% to 60% of free cash flow in dividends even in the low end of the cash flow cycle. Obviously cash is slightly different. If you plot cash against earnings per share, there are obviously differences in the way because obviously, if you are in a downward cycle from a revenues perspective, obviously sometimes that actually is positive from a cash flow perspective if you are reducing working capital through that period of time. So there are puts and takes as to why you can't correlate it exactly to EPS, but it does reflect our confidence. So obviously we do have -- expect both cash flows and operating margins to be positive and to reflect our Investor Day targets through all parts of the cycle as we move forward.

羅斯，如果你還記得的話，在投資者日，我們實際上是從現金覆蓋的角度而不是盈利覆蓋的角度來談論這個問題。實際上，在現金覆蓋率方面，即使我們預期處於低週期，我們預計即使在現金流週期的低端，實際支付的股息也不會超過自由現金流的 50% 到 60%。顯然現金略有不同。如果將現金與每股盈餘進行比較，顯然會有所不同，因為很明顯，如果從收入角度來看您處於下行週期，那麼如果您在那段時間內減少營運資本，那麼從現金流角度來看，這有時實際上是正面的。因此，為什麼不能將其與每股收益完全關聯起來存在爭議，但它確實反映了我們的信心。因此顯然我們確實有——預計現金流和營業利潤率都將為正，並在未來整個週期中反映出我們的投資者日目標。

So in saying that, Andrew, just to do the math for everybody, I mean, it sounds like in your view you think you're going to do at least $10 of free cash flow at the bottom of the cycle.

所以，安德魯，我只是想為大家算一下，我的意思是，聽起來，在你看來，你認為在周期的底部你將獲得至少 10 美元的自由現金流。

Obviously we said 4 billion to 6 -- I think it's $4 billion to [$8 billion] (corrected by company after the call) was our range that we talked about, on Investor Day, of cash flow. So obviously, yes, you can work that back through in the math.

顯然，我們說的是 40 億到 60 億美元——我認為是 40 億到 80 億美元（電話會議後公司進行了更正）是我們在投資者日談論的現金流範圍。很明顯，是的，你可以透過數學來解決這個問題。

Okay. And then just on China excavator market share: I mean there was a lot of focus on this 6 to 9 months ago. If you look at the data, your share seems to have stabilized in recent months. Is that correct? And how has that been the case? Have you had to match the competition with lower pricing? Or is it more new product- and innovation-driven?

好的。然後僅就中國挖掘機市場份額而言：我的意思是 6 到 9 個月前人們非常關注這一點。如果你查看數據，你會發現你的份額在近幾個月似乎已經穩定下來。那正確嗎？那情況是怎麼回事呢？您是否必須以更低的價格與競爭對手抗衡？或者說它更多的是由新產品和創新所驅動的？

So this is Jim. So market share in any area of the world tends to be -- is always fluid and dynamic. We've talked previously about the fact that we are introducing new products in China, our GC product line. Our dealers continue to build up their capability with better coverage, so it's a whole variety of issues. And again it's a very dynamic situation, but we're confident in our ability to compete in China long term. And we demonstrate the ability to do that, but there will be fluctuations on a short-term basis up or down. That's just part of the deal.

這就是吉姆。因此，世界任何地區的市場份額往往是流動的和動態的。我們之前談到我們將在中國推出新產品，即我們的 GC 產品線。我們的經銷商繼續增強其能力，提供更好的覆蓋範圍，因此涉及各種各樣的問題。雖然目前的情況非常動態，但我們對自己在中國的長期競爭力充滿信心。我們也證明了我們有能力做到這一點，但短期內會出現上漲或下跌的波動。這只是交易的一部分。

Your next question is coming from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的諾亞凱伊 (Noah Kaye)。

Jim, you mentioned progress this quarter with respect to shortening product lead times. Can you provide some more color around that? I guess, particularly, what's been accomplished internally versus a function of easing pressure from some of these inventory reductions? What have you actually accomplished in terms of making the supply chain and production more nimble?

吉姆，您提到了本季在縮短產品交貨期方面取得的進展。您能對此提供更多細節嗎？我想，具體來說，與緩解庫存減少的壓力相比，內部取得了哪些成就？在使供應鏈和生產更加靈活方面，你們實際上取得了哪些成就？

Yes. It's a combination of a variety of factors. We had discussed in previous calls that with the sharp increase in volume in 2017 and 2018 many of our suppliers struggled to allow us to have the lead times we would like to given that period of rapidly increasing demand. So there's been improvement in the supply base because, as I mentioned in my initial remarks, we've also been very focused on becoming more efficient within our factories, reducing lead times, applying lean. So really it's a combination of all those factors.

是的。這是多種因素的綜合作用。我們在之前的電話會議中討論過，隨著 2017 年和 2018 年銷量的急劇增長，在需求快速增長的時期，我們的許多供應商都難以讓我們獲得想要的交貨時間。因此，供應基礎得到了改善，因為正如我在最初的發言中提到的那樣，我們也非常注重提高工廠效率，縮短交貨時間，並應用精益生產。所以實際上這是所有這些因素的綜合作用。

And then on mining, maybe a question about how your customers are viewing autonomy relative to other CapEx priorities. You mentioned the retrofit offering. You've announced several greenfield projects. We did see a case recently, I believe, where one of your large mining customers was considering going autonomous but then decided to overhaul its existing fleet and focus on productivity. So I guess the question is, is that the trend or the exception? Is CapEx discipline generally holding back broader adoption of autonomous haulage? Or does this 30% productivity improvement from autonomy provide enough of a step change in fleet profitability that it would actually drive companies to replace or retrofit fleets earlier than typical?

然後關於採礦，也許有一個問題是關於您的客戶如何看待相對於其他資本支出優先事項的自主權。您提到了改造服務。你們已經宣布了幾個綠地計畫。我相信，我們最近確實看到了一個案例，你們的一個大型礦業客戶原本考慮採用自動化技術，但後來決定徹底改造現有車隊，並專注於提高生產力。所以我想問題是，這是趨勢還是例外？資本支出約束是否通常會阻礙自動運輸的廣泛應用？或者，自主化帶來的 30% 的生產力提升是否足以為車隊獲利能力帶來重大變化，促使公司比平常更早更換或改造車隊？

We've seen a lot of interest and activity in autonomy. I think, if you look at that 30% productivity increase, it really can be a game changer for many of our customers. Obviously every customer is in a very different situation. They could be a coal customer. They could be as in a variety of commodities. So customers make decisions based on their particular financial situation, but we're very, very pleased at the adoption rates that we're seeing in autonomy in the last year or so. You mentioned the greenfield projects. Again, we do believe it's a game changer, and we're very bullish about the outlook for that product capability.

我們看到了人們對自治的濃厚興趣和積極活動。我認為，如果你看看那 30% 的生產力提高，它真的可以改變我們的許多客戶。顯然每位顧客的情況都有很大差異。他們可能是煤炭客戶。它們可以是多種商品。因此，客戶會根據自己的財務狀況做出決定，但我們對過去一年左右自主權的採用率感到非常高興。您提到了綠地專案。我們再次強調，我們確實相信它將改變整個遊戲規則，而且我們對該產品性能的前景非常樂觀。

Your next question is coming from Ann Duignan for JPMorgan Securities.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Ann Duignan。

Yes. Maybe you could address the comments you made earlier about Asia Pacific sales. I think you said sales outside of China were weaker than expected. If you could expand on that. And then what specifically are you seeing in China in terms of end market demand and the fundamentals? Any green shoots in that region?

是的。也許您可以談談您之前對亞太地區銷售的評論。我記得您說過中國以外的銷售情況比預期弱。如果你能進一步闡述這一點。那麼，就終端市場需求和基本面而言，您具體看到中國的情況如何？該地區有任何復甦跡象嗎？

Ann, starting then with your last question first. So on China, the industry, as you know, for us is mostly hydraulic excavators 10 tonnes above. And the industry continues to be strong. So given the fact that that's the majority of our market in China, we have not seen a decline there. So that's a positive. As I did mention earlier, outside of China and Japan we have seen some weakness in construction over the last few months.

安，首先從你的最後一個問題開始。因此，如您所知，在中國，我們的主要產業是10噸以上的液壓挖土機。該行業繼續保持強勁勢頭。考慮到這佔據了我們在中國市場的大部分份額，我們並沒有看到其下滑。這是積極的。正如我之前提到的，除中國和日本外，過去幾個月建築業也出現了一些疲軟跡象。

Where specifically?

具體在哪裡？

Country-wise, I think it's pretty well dispersed over the Asia region outside of those 2 countries.

從國家來看，我認為除了這兩個國家之外，它在亞洲地區分佈得相當均勻。

And Ann, just remember most of our revenues in those markets are basically China and Japan. So that is the bulk. I mean these other markets tend to be relatively small compared to China and Japan.

安，請記住，我們在這些市場的大部分收入基本上來自中國和日本。這就是大部分內容。我的意思是，與中國和日本相比，這些其他市場往往相對較小。

Okay. And my follow-up is you've got 130 days of inventories on hand as of the end of Q3. Where would you expect inventories to end at year-end? And is your assumption at this point that end market demand is flat going into next year? I mean, what are the downside risks that we'll go into next year having to underproduce [retails]? Are you comfortable that you'll have rightsized your own inventories by year-end?

好的。我的後續問題是，截至第三季末，你們的庫存可供 130 天使用。您預計年底庫存將達到多少？您現在的假設是，終端市場需求到明年將會持平嗎？我的意思是，明年我們面臨哪些零售產量不足的下行風險？您是否確信到年底您將能夠調整自己的庫存規模？

Yes. So Ann, as we look out -- I mean, are you talking about CAT inventories or dealer inventories? I think you're taking about CAT (inaudible) -- yes, yes.

是的。所以安，當我們觀察時——我的意思是，您談論的是 CAT 庫存還是經銷商庫存？我認為您正在談論 CAT（聽不清楚）--是的，是的。

CAT inventories days on hand there's 130 days versus 119 a year ago.

CAT 庫存週轉天數為 130 天，去年同期為 119 天。

Yes. So the rise in that -- obviously there is a lag between, actually as we slow production down, ordering components and so forth before it actually flows all through in today's sales. So obviously you're also reflecting based on days sales, which are also impacted by things like dealer inventory as well. So that has some impacts unless you've -- you take them into account, but the bigger -- we are looking obviously inventory. We do normally expect a normal seasonal pattern, which is actually inventories to reduce in Q4, but obviously as we talk at the moment, obviously we're looking at actually reducing material purchases to reflect the production declines we've spoken about. But that should rightsize itself. As we move into 2020, we would expect to be in a pretty normal position.

是的。因此，這種增長——實際上，隨著我們放慢生產速度，訂購零件等，在其真正流入今天的銷售之前，顯然存在一個滯後。因此，顯然您也會根據銷售天數來反映，而銷售天數也會受到經銷商庫存等因素的影響。所以，除非你考慮到這些因素，否則這會產生一些影響，但更大的影響是，我們顯然在關注庫存。我們通常確實預期會出現正常的季節性模式，也就是第四季度庫存實際上會減少，但顯然正如我們現在所談論的那樣，我們顯然正在考慮減少材料採購，以反映我們所說的產量下降。但這應該適合自身規模。隨著我們進入 2020 年，我們預計情況將相當正常。

Your next question is coming from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Quick question. Is there a way to quantify where you will finish 2019 in terms of the service sales versus the 2016 -- 2026 targets? And then also, you've done a nice job of developing a lot of this in house. Is this something the [path] will continue forward, or is there something that you'll need to look outside the organization with M&A?

快速提問。有沒有辦法量化 2019 年的服務銷售額與 2016 年至 2026 年的目標相比如何？而且，你們在內部開發這方面的工作也做得很好。這是 [路徑] 將繼續向前發展的嗎，還是您需要透過併購在組織外部尋找一些東西？

Yes, Stanley, what we intend to do is, when we announce our fourth quarter results, we will release our ME&T service sales so you'll get a sense of how we're doing. And as we talked about at Investor Day, it won't be a straight line up, all right? It can be impacted by a whole variety of factors in terms of rebuilds and what's going on. And we're making investments in digital and other things. To answer your question: We utilize outside parties. We are certainly beefing up our internal capabilities as well and particularly in the area of digital, but we're open to M&A. If you stop to think about resource allocation and think about how we intend to grow those areas that are most profitable. Certainly we're open to that as well and one of those things we continue to evaluate.

是的，史丹利，我們打算做的是，當我們宣布第四季度業績時，我們將發布我們的 ME＆T 服務銷售額，這樣您就會了解我們的表現。正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，這不會是一條直線，好嗎？它可能受到重建和正在發生的事情等各種因素的影響。我們正在對數位領域和其他領域進行投資。回答您的問題：我們利用外部各方。我們當然也在加強我們的內部能力，特別是在數位領域，但我們對併購持開放態度。如果你停下來思考資源分配，想想我們打算如何發展那些最賺錢的領域。當然，我們對此也持開放態度，並且我們會繼續評估這一點。

Your next question is coming from Timothy Thein from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Timothy Thein。

So the question is on orders and relative to the guidance that you've provided in terms of what you think end user demand and dealer inventories do in the fourth quarter. I'm curious how you think orders play into this. And presumably you have maybe a bit less year-end budget flush than prior years, but just curious to get your thoughts as to how that plays out. And help us in terms of think about a range in terms of where year-end backlog may end.

所以問題是關於訂單，以及您提供的第四季度最終用戶需求和經銷商庫存情況的指導。我很好奇您認為訂單在其中起到了什麼作用。並且據推測您可能比前幾年年底的預算要少一些，但我只是想聽聽您對這一結果的看法。並幫助我們思考年底積壓訂單可能結束的範圍。

Yes. So as we look out, obviously if you look where we are on backlog at the moment, it's impacted by a number of factors. One of them, obviously primary, is dealer's expectations of inventory reductions. It depends on where we end. Obviously the big unknown factor is what is dealer's expectations of future growth going to be at the end of the year because that will impact their order pattern in Q4. So it really is a function of that. As it stands at the moment, you would -- obviously the backlog decline in Q3 reflects a lot of the dealer desire to reduce their inventories, which will -- obviously the $0.9 billion. It depends whether they decide whether they would like to reduce inventories further in 2020, and then at this point in time, we just don't knows about that. That's too early for us to tell.

是的。因此，當我們觀察時，顯然如果你看看我們目前的積壓情況，你會發現它受到許多因素的影響。其中之一，顯然是首要因素，是經銷商對庫存減少的預期。這取決於我們的終點。顯然，最大的未知因素是經銷商對年底未來成長的預期是什麼，因為這將影響他們第四季的訂單模式。所以它確實是這樣的功能。就目前情況而言，顯然第三季積壓訂單的下降反映了許多經銷商希望減少庫存，這顯然將造成 9 億美元的損失。這取決於他們是否決定在 2020 年進一步減少庫存，而目前我們還不知道這一點。對我們來說現在說這些還為時過早。

Your next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

All right, yes. Jim, I'm wondering if you can talk about what you folks are seeing in terms of the forward-looking parts demand indicators for your resource business as we've seen the useful life assumptions get pushed out by the miners. Presumably you have pretty good visibility on major rebuilds coming up. Is 2020 a major inflection? And then you've spoke about the moving pieces in the market given the economic uncertainty. Can you just talk about when -- based on the project and work that you anticipate, when do you expect resources will go back to growing the backlog as we, hopefully, see an acceleration towards more replacement-type levels of demand?

好的，是的。吉姆，我想知道您是否可以談談您對資源業務的前瞻性零件需求指標的看法，因為我們已經看到使用壽命假設被礦工所推遲。想必您對即將進行的重大重建有相當好的了解。2020 年是一個重大轉捩點嗎？然後您談到了鑑於經濟不確定性而出現的市場變動情況。您能否談談什麼時候——根據您預期的項目和工作，您預計何時資源將重新用於增加積壓訂單，因為我們希望看到需求加速增長至更多替代型水平？

Yes. Thank you. So for Resource Industries, our rebuild activity and parts activity has been strong and we expect that to continue to be strong, so we're not looking forward to a -- significantly an increase or a decrease. It's been strong and we think that will continue.

是的。謝謝。因此，對於資源產業而言，我們的重建活動和零件活動一直很強勁，我們預計這種勢頭將繼續保持強勁，因此我們不希望大幅增加或減少的情況。它一直很強勁，我們認為它將會持續下去。

Yes. And as far as actually when do we expect the -- back to this point about what is the timing of any bounce, the -- on sort of particularly around parked fleet and replacement, I think it's really, really difficult for us to see when that will happen, Jerry, to put a particular time line to it. I think obviously, based on all the stats that we're looking at, we do expect it to happen. It's just a matter of time of that, and that really depends on miners' views of their outlook. And obviously, as we said, everything apart from coal is investible, so it's not the investment decision. It's probably their view of the outlook in particular.

是的。至於我們實際上何時預計會反彈，回到這個問題上，特別是關於停泊車隊和更換車隊的時間，我認為我們真的很難預測什麼時候會發生這種情況，傑瑞，給它設定一個具體的時間表。我認為，顯然基於我們正在查看的所有統計數據，我們確實預計它會發生。這只是時間問題，而且這實際上取決於礦工對其前景的看法。顯然，正如我們所說，除了煤炭之外的所有東西都是可以投資的，所以這不是投資決策。這可能就是他們對前景的看法。

Well, just given the history of the last 10 years, I believe that miners will continue to be cautious here. So again I think it'll be a multiyear increase, so it'll gradually get better, as opposed -- we probably won't see the volatility that we've seen in the past, either up or down, which frankly will be a positive thing for us and the industry, to have it be more steady, more of a steady increase over several years than -- again, than volatility we've seen previously.

嗯，鑑於過去 10 年的歷史，我相信礦工會繼續保持謹慎。因此，我再次認為這將是一個多年的增長，所以它會逐漸好轉，相反——我們可能不會再看到過去那樣的波動，無論是上漲還是下跌，坦率地說，這對我們和行業來說都是一件積極的事情，它會更加穩定，比我們以前看到的波動更穩定地增長幾年。

Okay. And Andrew, on the free cash flow number at the trough that you spoke about at the Analyst Day, what level of working capital contribution are you folks embedding? I think, in prior cycles, it's generally been $1.5 billion to $2 billion of positive free cash flow, as inventories have come down. Is that what you're contemplating relative to that trough number?

好的。安德魯，在分析師日上您談到的自由現金流最低數字，你們嵌入了什麼水準的營運資本貢獻？我認為，在先前的周期中，由於庫存下降，正自由現金流一般為 15 億美元至 20 億美元。這就是你針對那個最低潮數字所考慮的事情嗎？

Yes, yes. So actually the -- to correct the number: I said $4 billion to $6 billion. It's actually $4 billion to $8 billion. So I actually underestimated the top end, but actually what we do -- I mean we use similar working capital assumptions, as we've seen in previous cycles, so it actually isn't working capital which was the main benefit to cash flow. It's the lack of restructuring costs. It's lower CapEx and also the fact that obviously the structural costs we've taken out. So the improved margins. Those are the 3 biggest drivers of improved cash flow.

是的，是的。所以實際上——糾正一下數字：我說的是 40 億到 60 億美元。實際上是 40 億到 80 億美元。所以我實際上低估了最高限額，但實際上我們所做的——我的意思是我們使用類似的營運資本假設，正如我們在之前的周期中看到的那樣，所以實際上並不是營運資本對現金流的主要好處。這是因為缺乏重組成本。它的資本支出較低，而且顯然我們已經消除了結構性成本。因此利潤率提高了。這些都是改善現金流的三大驅動因素。

Your next question is coming from Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

Just looking to clarify some earlier comments on the dealer inventory destock. So you're exiting the year with an additional $500 million of inventory at dealer level year-over-year. So it -- if we're assuming that retail sales are flat in 2020, would that allow you to produce the retail demand? Or is there additional destocking that would be needed?

只是想澄清一些關於經銷商庫存去庫存的先前評論。因此，今年您在經銷商層級的庫存將比去年同期增加 5 億美元。那麼，如果我們假設 2020 年的零售額持平，這是否能滿足零售需求？或是否需要進一步去庫存？

So Mig, I need just remind you again it's dealers who make those decisions about their inventory levels. It's not us. Availability and all those things can play a part. Ultimately, at the end of the day, given the lead time for production and the fact that dealers don't want to miss revenues, they'll make decisions based on that and what their expectations are of the future. Obviously, when we look at it, we believe that the level of dealer inventory is within the range of probability that we would expect, the comfort level that we've talked about, 3 to 4 months. And it stays in that range. Obviously there can be movements within that range which aren't necessarily within our control. They are dealer decisions.

所以 Mig，我只需要再次提醒你，經銷商是對其庫存水準做出決定的人。這不是我們。可用性和所有這些因素都可以發揮作用。最終，考慮到生產的準備時間以及經銷商不想錯過收入的事實，他們會根據這一點以及對未來的預期做出決定。顯然，當我們觀察它時，我們認為經銷商庫存水平在我們預期的機率範圍內，也就是我們所談論的舒適水平，即 3 到 4 個月。並且它保持在這個範圍內。顯然，在這個範圍內可能會存在一些我們不一定能控制的運動。這是經銷商的決定。

And again just given the external environment, the uncertainty in the dynamic environment we're in, we believe we're well positioned regardless of what happens positive or negative in 2020. We have -- we shortened our lead times. We have an appropriate level of -- our dealers have set up an appropriate level of inventory, so we think we're prepared either way.

再次，考慮到外部環境，以及我們所處的動態環境中的不確定性，我們相信，無論 2020 年發生什麼積極或消極的情況，我們都處於有利地位。我們已經縮短了交貨時間。我們的經銷商已經建立了適當的庫存水平，因此我們認為無論如何我們都準備好了。

Okay. Understood. And then my follow-up is really on the levers that you have to manage your costs as we're seeing some volume fluctuation here. I mean, if I'm looking at incentive comp, it came down modestly from last quarter. As we look going forward, how do you think about any restructuring or any other actions that you might have to undertake if indeed volumes remain weak? Or do you feel like at this point you've got enough flexibility within your cost structure to be able to handle that without any meaningful moves?

好的。明白了。然後我的後續問題實際上是關於你必須管理成本的槓桿，因為我們在這裡看到一些數量波動。我的意思是，如果我看激勵補償，它比上一季略有下降。展望未來，如果交易量確實持續疲軟，您如何看待可能必須採取的任何重組或其他行動？或者您覺得目前您的成本結構已經具有足夠的彈性，而無需採取任何有意義的措施就能處理這個問題？

So we continually evaluate our cost structure. There's a number of things that we're working on. Andrew mentioned some things that we're doing looking at our back-office costs, if you will. So we're -- we have some things, projects that we started there. We're looking at material costs. That's certainly a big lever for us; and that's one of the things that we're working on, both direct and indirect costs. We continue to look at ways to become more efficient. So again, we're continually doing that. We won't make a call as to whether or not we'll have major restructuring or not. Again, we'll see what the market brings to us over the next few months. Either way, we're ready. We'll be ready to respond.

因此我們不斷評估我們的成本結構。我們正在進行多項工作。如果你願意的話，安德魯提到了我們正在做的一些關於後台成本的事情。所以我們—我們在那裡開始了一些事情和專案。我們正在考慮材料成本。這對我們來說無疑是一個很大的槓桿；這是我們正在努力解決的問題之一，包括直接成本和間接成本。我們將繼續尋找提高效率的方法。所以，我們會繼續這樣做。我們不會決定是否進行重大重組。再次，我們將看看未來幾個月市場將為我們帶來什麼。無論如何，我們已經準備好了。我們將做好回應的準備。

Okay. And that's our last question. Jim?

好的。這是我們的最後一個問題。吉姆？

Well, thank you for your questions. We really appreciate your interest. We'll continue to execute our strategy, with a focus on services, expanding offerings and operational excellence, to deliver long-term profitable growth. And we look forward to chatting with you again next quarter.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。我們非常感謝您的關注。我們將繼續執行我們的策略，重點關注服務、擴大產品範圍和卓越運營，實現長期獲利成長。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Andrew and everyone who joined us on the call today.

謝謝，吉姆。謝謝安德魯以及今天參加我們電話會議的所有人。

Before we close, let me point out Slide 16, where we're providing our preliminary 2020 earnings dates. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. You can reach Rob at rengel_rob@cat.com. And I'm at driscoll_jennifer@cat.com. Our general phone number for investor relations is (309) 675-4549.

在結束之前，請允許我指出第 16 張投影片，其中提供了 2020 年的初步收益日期。如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡 Rob 或我。您可以透過 rengel_rob@cat.com 聯絡 Rob。我的電子郵件地址是 driscoll_jennifer@cat.com。我們的投資者關係總機號碼是 (309) 675-4549。

And now let me ask Catherine, our operator, to conclude the call.

現在我請我們的接線生凱瑟琳結束通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。