開拓重工 (CAT) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q 2019 analyst conference. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒2019年第二季分析師會議。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人珍妮佛‧德里斯科爾 (Jennifer Driscoll)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Catherine. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's second quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; and Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒第二季財報電話會議。今天與我們一起參加的有董事會主席兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；財務長 Andrew Bonfield；以及我們全球金融服務部副總裁 Kyle Epley。

We've provided slides to accompany the presentation. You can find them, along with our earnings news release, in the Investors section of caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations.

我們提供了幻燈片來配合此簡報。您可以在 caterpillar.com 的「活動與演示」下的「投資者」部分中找到它們以及我們的收益新聞稿。

Today, we will make forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. For details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause actual results to vary materially from our projections, please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today's news release.

今天，我們將做出前瞻性的陳述，這些陳述具有風險和不確定性。我們也會做出一些假設，這可能會導致我們的實際結果與討論的資訊不同。有關單獨或總體上可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異的因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒。

As indicated on last quarter's call, we're not reporting adjusted profit per share again this quarter as restructuring costs are expected to be lower in 2019. It's our intention to report adjusted profit per share at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 to exclude any mark-to-market gain or loss for the remeasurement of pension and any other post-employment benefit plan as well as any other discrete items. As a reminder, our U.S. GAAP-based guidance for profit per share continues to include the benefit of the $0.31 discrete tax item we recognized in the first quarter.

正如上個季度的電話會議所指出的，我們本季不會再次報告調整後的每股利潤，因為預計 2019 年的重組成本會較低。我們打算在 2019 年第四季末報告調整後的每股利潤，以排除因重新計量退休金和任何其他離職後福利計劃以及任何其他單獨專案而產生的按市價計價的收益或損失。提醒一下，我們基於美國 GAAP 的每股利潤指引繼續包含我們在第一季確認的 0.31 美元單獨稅項的收益。

Please keep in mind that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We expressly prohibit use of any portion of the call without our written approval.

請記住，卡特彼勒已擁有此通話的版權。我們明確禁止在未經我們書面批准的情況下使用本次通話的任何部分。

Before I turn the call over to Jim, let me inform you about a change we're making due to investor preferences around the timing of earnings calls. Beginning next quarter, we plan to shift our earnings calls to begin at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This timing allows us to conclude our call before the U.S. stock market opens. Accordingly, we also plan to accelerate the news release timing to 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time beginning next quarter.

在我將電話轉給吉姆之前，請允許我向您介紹我們根據投資者對收益電話會議時間的偏好而做出的改變。從下個季度開始，我們計劃將收益電話會議改為上午 8:30 開始。東部時間。這個時間讓我們能夠在美國股市開盤前結束通話。因此，我們也計劃將新聞發佈時間提前至上午 6:30。東部時間下個季度開始。

And with that, I now turn the call over to Jim.

現在，我將電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning to everyone on the call. Please turn to Slide 3 for our second quarter highlights.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。通話中的各位早安。請翻到投影片 3 查看我們第二季的亮點。

Sales and revenues this quarter rose 3% to $14.4 billion. Operating profit rose 2% to $2.2 billion. Profit per share of $2.83 was slightly ahead of last year's record second quarter of $2.82. We delivered strong operating cash flow of $2 billion in the quarter. At our Investor Day in May, we announced our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividend growth and more consistent share repurchases. As previously announced, we recently increased the quarterly dividend by 20% to $1.03 per share or $4.12 on an annualized basis. So far in 2019, we paid dividends of almost $1 billion. In addition, we repurchased about $1.4 billion in company stock this quarter, which brings the total to about $2.1 billion for the year.

本季銷售額和營收成長 3% 至 144 億美元。營業利潤成長 2% 至 22 億美元。每股獲利 2.83 美元，略高於去年第二季創紀錄的 2.82 美元。本季我們實現了 20 億美元的強勁營運現金流。在五月的投資者日上，我們宣布了透過增加股利和更持續的股票回購相結合的方式將幾乎所有自由現金流返還給股東的意圖。正如先前宣布的那樣，我們最近將季度股息提高了 20%，至每股 1.03 美元或年化股息 4.12 美元。截至目前，2019年我們已支付近10億美元的股利。此外，本季我們回購了價值約 14 億美元的公司股票，使全年回購總額達到約 21 億美元。

From a top line perspective, we experienced strong sales in the quarter. Overall demand remains positive. While some customers appear to be more cautious about making large capital expenditures, including in oil and gas, we continue to expect modest sales growth for the year. We are only 2.5 years into a recovery in many of our end markets. While we had strong top line sales, we experienced some unfavorable changes in mix and higher-than-expected restructuring charges. Andrew will discuss both of these items later in the call. Although we are guiding you to the lower end of the profit per share range, we still expect 2019 profit per share to be higher than the record we set in 2018.

從營收角度來看，本季我們實現了強勁的銷售業績。整體需求依然保持正面。儘管一些客戶似乎對包括石油和天然氣在內的大規模資本支出更加謹慎，但我們仍然預計今年的銷售額將溫和成長。我們的許多終端市場僅經歷了兩年半的復甦。雖然我們的營收表現強勁，但我們的產品組合出現了一些不利的變化，重組費用也高於預期。安德魯將在稍後的電話會議中討論這兩項內容。儘管我們預期每股利潤將處於區間低端，但我們仍預計 2019 年每股利潤將高於我們在 2018 年創下的紀錄。

Now let's review our 2019 expectations for the external environment on Slide 4. In Construction Industries, we continue to expect North America will be a positive for us. This is due in part to infrastructure spending at the state and local level, although we expect that to be partly offset by weakness in residential construction.

現在，讓我們回顧一下投影片 4 上我們對 2019 年外部環境的預期。在建築業，我們繼續預期北美將對我們產生積極影響。這在一定程度上歸因於州和地方的基礎設施支出，儘管我們預計住宅建設的疲軟將部分抵消這一增長。

Turning to Asia Pacific. We expect continued pressure from competitive pricing in China, partly offset by growth in other areas in Asia Pacific. EAME is a mixed bag. Sales in Europe are projected to be steady while Africa and the Middle East remain weak. Latin America continues to improve from very low levels.

轉向亞太地區。我們預計中國市場的競爭性定價將繼續帶來壓力，但亞太地區其他地區的成長將部分抵銷這種壓力。EAME 的情況好壞參半。預計歐洲的銷售將保持穩定，而非洲和中東的銷售仍然疲軟。拉丁美洲從非常低的水平持續改善。

We expect demand for heavy construction as well as quarry and aggregate equipment to remain strong in Resource Industries this year. Most commodity prices remain at investable levels. Mining equipment sales continue to improve and large mining truck sales have further room for growth to reach their normal replacement levels. We continue to anticipate that miners will remain disciplined in their capital expenditures in these early stages of their multiyear recovery.

我們預計今年資源產業對重型建築設備以及採石場和骨材設備的需求將保持強勁。大多數商品價格仍處於可投資水準。礦山設備銷售持續向好，大型礦車銷售還有進一步成長空間，以達到正常替換水準。我們繼續預計，在多年復甦的早期階段，礦業公司將在資本支出方面保持紀律。

The Energy & Transportation space is more mixed amid continued volatility in oil prices and tightened oil and gas capital spending. In reciprocating engines, we expect our sales into the Permian Basin will strengthen in the fourth quarter as takeaway capacity improves. We expect Solar Turbines to have a strong fourth quarter as will Progress Rail. Power generation continues to be an area of expected growth.

在油價持續波動以及石油和天然氣資本支出收緊的背景下，能源和運輸領域的表現更加喜憂參半。在往復式引擎方面，隨著外送能力的提高，我們預計第四季度我們在二疊紀盆地的銷售將會增強。我們預計 Solar Turbines 和 Progress Rail 第四季業績將表現強勁。發電仍然是預期成長的領域。

Please turn to Slide 5 for a progress update on our strategy for profitable growth. We continue to execute our strategy by investing in services and expanded offerings while improving operational excellence. We've been working hard to improve product lead times. Due to the significant increase in volume during the past 2.5 years, we struggle to keep up with demand for some products. This was primarily due to ramp-up issues at our suppliers. We're pleased that product lead times have improved even though volume remained strong. We have achieved or are close to achieving target lead times for the vast majority of our products. In Resource Industries, for example, our current scheduled average lead time now is just 12 weeks, more than a 50% improvement compared to March of 2018 when we had a weighted average of 26 weeks for the entire portfolio. Shorter lead times allow customers and dealers more flexibility on when to initiate orders.

請前往投影片 5 以了解我們的獲利成長策略的進度更新。我們將繼續執行我們的策略，投資於服務和擴展產品，同時提高卓越營運。我們一直在努力縮短產品交付週期。由於過去 2.5 年內銷售量大幅增加，我們難以滿足某些產品的需求。這主要是由於我們的供應商的產能提升問題所致。我們很高興看到，儘管產品銷售量依然強勁，但產品交付週期已縮短。我們已經實現或接近實現絕大多數產品的目標交貨時間。例如，在資源產業，我們目前的平均交貨時間僅為 12 週，與 2018 年 3 月相比提高了 50% 以上，當時整個投資組合的加權平均值為 26 週。更短的交貨時間使客戶和經銷商在何時發起訂單方面擁有更大的靈活性。

We also continue to focus on enhancing operational excellence, including safety. Our safety goal is always 0 incidents. We want our people to return home safely every day. One of the metrics we track is the number of recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked. May and June were 2 of our best safety months on record. We intend to keep the momentum going and make it a great year for safety.

我們也將繼續致力於提高包括安全性在內的卓越營運。我們的安全目標始終是零事故。我們希望我們的人民每天都能安全回家。我們追蹤的指標之一是每20萬工作小時可記錄的傷害數量。五月和六月是我們有史以來安全狀況最好的兩個月。我們打算繼續保持這一勢頭，使今年成為安全的豐收年。

Earlier this year, we announced a goal to double ME&T services sales to $28 billion by 2026. Services increase customer value by improving asset utilization and availability while reducing owning and operating costs. We continue to invest to expand our digital capabilities, enabling services growth, and we remain on track toward our goal of 1 million connected assets by the end of the year.

今年早些時候，我們宣布了到 2026 年將 ME&T 服務銷售額翻一番至 280 億美元的目標。服務透過提高資產利用率和可用性同時降低擁有和營運成本來增加客戶價值。我們將繼續投資以擴大我們的數位能力，促進服務成長，並將繼續朝著今年年底連接 100 萬資產的目標邁進。

Product rebuilds and repowers are just one of our services helping customers be more successful. Progress Rail recently won a contract to repower several locomotives for a U.K. rail customer. The new EMD engines will meet EU emission standards and the first repower is expected to be delivered next year. Repowers and modernizations are growth areas as our locomotive customers seek greater utilization of existing fleets.

產品重建和重新啟動只是我們幫助客戶更大成功的服務之一。Progress Rail 最近贏得了一份合同，為英國鐵路客戶更換幾台機車。新的 EMD 引擎將符合歐盟排放標準，第一批更換的引擎預計明年交付。由於我們的機車客戶尋求更大程度地利用現有車隊，因此動力改造和現代化改造是成長領域。

Many of our meetings with mining customers these days include discussions around technologies like autonomy and automation and how they improve safety and productivity. We have recently been selected for 3 greenfield projects that will further grow our penetration of autonomy with mining customers in South America and Australia. More than 220 trucks have accumulated 50 million kilometers of autonomous driving in fleets already deployed. Our autonomous solutions are now being utilized by 7 customers across 11 sites in 3 continents. We believe that we are at a tipping point for adoption of autonomy in mining.

最近，我們與採礦客戶的許多會議都涉及自主性和自動化等技術以及它們如何提高安全性和生產力的討論。我們最近被選中參與三個綠地項目，這將進一步擴大我們在南美洲和澳洲礦業客戶的自主滲透率。目前已部署的車隊中已有 220 多輛卡車實現了累積 5,000 萬公里的自動駕駛。目前，遍布 3 大洲 11 個地點的 7 個客戶正在使用我們的自主解決方案。我們相信，我們正處於採用採礦自動化的轉捩點。

For example, this quarter, we announced that we will be working with Rio Tinto to create a technologically advanced iron ore mine in Western Australia. We will supply and support mining machines, automation and enterprise technology systems for this project. Working closely with WesTrac, our local dealer, Rio Tinto plans to create an automated mine operation using data analytics and integration to enhance safety, optimize production, boost mining machine utilization and lower costs.

例如，本季度，我們宣布將與力拓合作在西澳大利亞創建一個技術先進的鐵礦。我們將為該專案提供和支援採礦機械、自動化和企業技術系統。力拓與當地經銷商 WesTrac 密切合作，計劃利用數據分析和整合創建自動化礦山運營，以提高安全性、優化生產、提高採礦機利用率並降低成本。

We also continue to expand our offerings, enabling us to continue to grow by addressing the diverse needs of our customers around the world. This year, we introduced the first Cat articulated truck GC model, the 740 GC. As you may know, the GC designation means the machine targets a segment that we refer to as life cycle value. This segment is for customers who have lighter duty applications or work in less extreme conditions. They value simple, tough machines that perform well with Caterpillar quality and product support. The 740 is particularly attractive in the North American rental market where it offers an additional value proposition in its size class. That said, the machine is also gaining traction in every region of the world. Interest in the 740 GC has been strong with year-to-date demand exceeding our initial forecast.

我們也將繼續擴大我們的產品範圍，透過滿足全球客戶的不同需求來實現持續發展。今年，我們推出了第一款 Cat 鉸接式卡車 GC 型號——740 GC。您可能知道，GC 指定意味著機器瞄準我們稱為生命週期價值的細分市場。此部分適用於應用任務較輕或在不太極端的條件下工作的客戶。他們重視簡潔、堅固且性能良好、具有卡特彼勒品質和產品支援的機器。740 在北美租賃市場尤其具有吸引力，它在同級車型中提供了額外的價值主張。儘管如此，這台機器在世界各地也越來越受歡迎。人們對 740 GC 的興趣一直很濃厚，今年迄今為止的需求已經超過了我們最初的預測。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯，讓他仔細看看我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Starting with Slide 6, I will begin with a closer look at results, then I'll touch on backlog and dealer inventories before turning to our outlook for the second half and full year.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。從第 6 張投影片開始，我將首先仔細研究結果，然後我將談到積壓訂單和經銷商庫存，然後再談談我們對下半年和全年的展望。

Starting with the headlines. Sales and revenues for the quarter totaled $14.4 billion, up 3% from last year's quarter driven by Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Overall operating profit increased by 2% or $46 million to $2.213 billion. Second quarter profit per share of $2.83 was up by $0.01 versus the prior year's record second quarter.

從標題開始。本季銷售和收入總計 144 億美元，較去年同期成長 3%，主要得益於建築業和資源產業的推動。整體營業利潤成長 2% 即 4,600 萬美元，達到 22.13 億美元。第二季每股獲利為 2.83 美元，較去年同期創紀錄的第二季成長 0.01 美元。

There were a number of factors which impacted the overall performance for the quarter. First, negative mix had an unfavorable impact on profits. This was both at the product and the segment level. Second, oil and gas sales remained weak as we wait for the Permian takeaway issues to be resolved. We now expect this to occur in the fourth quarter. Finally, we booked significant restructuring expenses in the quarter, which means that we expect the spend to be immaterial for the rest of the year.

有許多因素影響了本季的整體業績。首先，負面組合對利潤產生不利影響。這既涉及產品層面，也涉及細分市場層面。其次，由於我們正在等待二疊紀外送問題的解決，石油和天然氣銷售仍然疲軟。我們現在預計這將在第四季度發生。最後，我們在本季度計入了大量重組費用，這意味著我們預計今年剩餘時間內的支出將微不足道。

We completed $1.4 billion in share repurchases in the second quarter and paid $492 million in dividends as part of our commitment to returning substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders. We also announced a 20% increase in the dividend effective from the third quarter, which reflects our confidence in the company's ability to continue to grow cash flows. We ended the quarter with strong liquidity, including $7.4 billion of cash on hand.

我們在第二季完成了 14 億美元的股票回購，並支付了 4.92 億美元的股息，這是我們將大部分自由現金流返還給股東的承諾的一部分。我們也宣布從第三季起股利將增加20%，這反映了我們對公司繼續增加現金流的能力的信心。我們在本季結束時流動性強勁，包括 74 億美元的現金。

Let me dive deeper into the top line on Slide 7. Consolidated sales growth was 3%, reflecting price realization in ME&T of 3% with gains in the 3 primary segments. Volumes grew by 2% and the demand environment remains strong. As we reported this morning, machine retail sales to users grew by 4% during the quarter.

讓我更深入了解幻燈片 7 上的頂線。綜合銷售額成長 3%，反映 ME&T 的價格實現成長 3%，其中 3 個主要細分市場均成長。銷量成長了 2%，需求環境依然強勁。正如我們今天早上報導的那樣，本季機器對用戶的零售額增長了 4%。

Looking by segment. Construction Industries sales and revenues rose 5%, led by price realization, including the 2019 midyear increase as well as the increase on the 1st of January. Sales and revenues from Resource Industries increased by 11% fueled by higher equipment demand and favorable price realization. Energy & Transportation sales and revenues declined by 4%, primarily due to continued softness in oil and gas as well as timing challenges from project and locomotive deliveries. Our Financial Products segment revenue rose 5%. Currency pressures reflected the dollar strengthening principally against euro and Australian dollar. Overall, our top line growth reflected customers and dealers' confidence in the value proposition of our equipment.

按片段查看。建築業的銷售和收入成長了 5%，這主要得益於價格實現，包括 2019 年中期的成長以及 1 月 1 日的成長。受設備需求增加和價格上漲推動，資源產業的銷售額和收入成長了 11%。能源和運輸銷售和收入下降了 4%，主要原因是石油和天然氣市場持續疲軟，以及專案和機車交付的時間挑戰。我們的金融產品部門收入成長了 5%。貨幣壓力主要反映為美元兌歐元和澳元走強。整體而言，我們的營收成長反映了客戶和經銷商對我們設備價值主張的信心。

If you move to Slide 8, I will walk through the changes in operating profit. As shown on the chart, price realization and low SG&A and R&D expenses drove the operating profit increase, contributing $427 million and $118 million, respectively. Financial Products also added $14 million to operating profit for the quarter. Manufacturing costs increased by $328 million due to higher material costs, including $70 million in tariffs, variable labor and burden, including the loss of Brazil incentives and warranty expense. Unfavorable sales volume is about $190 million primarily due to mix changes in both Construction Industries and Energy & Transportation. In Construction Industries, the mix of sales reflected an increase in smaller products in North America. The mix in E&T reflected changes in the application mix, including smaller engines. Importantly, price realization more than covered higher manufacturing costs this quarter, an improvement versus Q1. We also continue to expect price realization to fully cover higher manufacturing costs for the full year. It's now been a year since tariffs were implemented and input prices are moderating. Freight costs have also stabilized. Currency lowered sales by 2 percentage points and reduced operating profit by about $20 million.

如果您轉到投影片 8，我將介紹營業利潤的變化。如圖所示，價格實現以及較低的銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用推動了營業利潤的成長，分別貢獻了 4.27 億美元和 1.18 億美元。金融產品部門也為本季增加了 1,400 萬美元的營業利潤。由於材料成本上漲，製造成本增加了 3.28 億美元，其中包括 7,000 萬美元的關稅、變動勞動力和負擔（包括失去巴西的激勵措施和保固費用）。銷售額不利的因素約為 1.9 億美元，主要由於建築業和能源與運輸業的結構變化。在建築業，銷售組合反映出北美小型產品的成長。E&T 中的組合反映了應用組合的變化，包括較小的引擎。重要的是，本季的價格實現足以彌補製造成本的上漲，與第一季相比有所改善。我們也繼續預計價格實現將完全覆蓋全年更高的製造成本。如今，關稅實施已有一年，投入品價格正在回落。運費成本也已趨於穩定。貨幣因素導致銷售額下降了 2 個百分點，營業利潤減少了約 2,000 萬美元。

Moving down the P&L. Low short-term incentive compensation expense impacted SG&A and R&D favorably while also benefiting manufacturing costs. We expect 2019 short-term incentive compensation expense to be about $600 million lower than in 2018.

降低損益表。較低的短期激勵薪酬費用對銷售、一般及行政開支以及研發產生了有利影響，同時也有利於降低製造成本。我們預計 2019 年短期激勵薪酬支出將比 2018 年低約 6 億美元。

Before taking a look at the segment results, I want to comment on how the second quarter trended against our first quarter performance. Second quarter sales rose versus the first quarter driven by seasonal trends, higher North American Construction Industries sales, sales of original equipment in Resource Industries and higher rail service revenue.

在查看分部業績之前，我想先評論一下第二季相對於第一季業績的趨勢。受季節性趨勢、北美建築業銷售額成長、資源產業原始設備銷售成長以及鐵路服務收入增加的推動，第二季銷售額較第一季上升。

From an operating profit perspective, the second quarter was about flat compared to the first quarter. The favorable sales performance was offset by negative mix and negative operating leverage due to low absorption cost into inventories driven by the reduction in production levels as we reduce Caterpillar inventories. The operating profit margin contracted by 110 basis points.

從營業利潤來看，第二季與第一季基本持平。由於我們減少卡特彼勒的庫存，導致生產水準下降，導致庫存吸收成本較低，因此良好的銷售表現被負面的產品組合和負的經營槓桿所抵消。營業利益率收縮110個基點。

From a segment perspective, the sequential margin deterioration was highest in Resource Industries, which as you know had a very strong first quarter. The change in Resource Industries operating margin is due to unfavorable operating leverage from inventory changes, coupled with higher warranty expenses. To keep it in perspective, Resource Industries in the first and second quarters had the highest profit margins since 2012, a year when sales were twice as high as they are now.

從細分市場來看，資源產業的利潤率環比下降最為顯著，但如大家所知，該產業第一季的表現非常強勁。資源工業營業利潤率的變化是由於庫存變化帶來的不利的營業槓桿，加上更高的保固費用。從整體來看，資源產業第一季和第二季的利潤率是自 2012 年以來最高的，而那一年的銷售額是現在的兩倍。

Year-to-date restructuring charges are $158 million. We don't expect these to recur at these levels in the second half. We still expect a maximum of $200 million of restructuring expenses for the full year.

年初至今的重組費用為 1.58 億美元。我們預計下半年不會再有這樣的情況。我們仍預計全年重組費用最多為 2 億美元。

Now let's look at the performance of each segment in the second quarter versus the prior year, beginning with Construction Industries on Slide 9. Construction Industries had a record quarter for both sales and profit. Sales and revenues totaled $6.5 billion, a gain of 5% versus the prior year. Construction sales increased in North America by $774 million due to demand changes, including dealer inventories and price realization. Sales were flat in Latin America where construction remained at low levels. Declines in Asia Pacific reflect a continued aggressive competitor pricing, the timing of the selling season as well as unfavorable currency impacts. Weakness in EAME was primarily due to a weaker euro. Construction Industries' profit increased by $93 million or 8% to a record $1.247 billion. The segment profit margin of 19.3% increased by 60 basis points. The favorable impact of higher volume and price realization was mostly offset by higher manufacturing costs plus unfavorable mix.

現在讓我們來看看第二季度每個部門與去年同期相比的表現，從第 9 頁的建築業開始。建築業本季的銷售額和利潤均創下了歷史新高。銷售和收入總計 65 億美元，比上年增長 5%。由於需求變化（包括經銷商庫存和價格實現），北美建築銷售額增加了 7.74 億美元。拉丁美洲的建築業仍處於較低水平，銷售額持平。亞太地區的下滑反映出競爭對手持續激進的定價、銷售季節的時間以及不利的貨幣影響。歐美地區的疲軟主要是因為歐元走弱。建築業利潤增加 9,300 萬美元，或 8%，達到創紀錄的 12.47 億美元。分部利潤率為19.3%，增加了60個基點。產量和價格提高的有利影響大部分都被製造成本上升和不利的產品組合所抵消。

Now let's go to Slide 10 and look at Resource Industries. Resource Industries sales were $2.8 billion, up 11% from the second quarter of 2018. The $274 million sales uplift reflects increases in demand and favorable price realization. Sales growth for Resource Industries was driven by a strong mining market, nonresidential construction and quarry and aggregate customers. Segment profit of $481 million rose 17%. Resource Industries' profit margin improved to 17.2%, up 90 basis points. The improvement was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Growth in original equipment remains strong as miners look to replace aging equipment.

現在我們來看第 10 張投影片，了解資源產業。資源產業銷售額為 28 億美元，較 2018 年第二季成長 11%。2.74 億美元的銷售額成長反映了需求的增加和有利的價格實現。資源產業的銷售成長得益於強勁的採礦市場、非住宅建築以及採石場和骨材客戶的推動。分部獲利4.81億美元，成長17%。資源工業的利潤率提高至17.2％，上升90個基點。這一增長主要歸功於優惠的價格和更高的銷售量。由於礦工希望更換老化的設備，原始設備的成長依然強勁。

If you turn to Slide 11, Energy & Transportation sales in the second quarter were $5.5 billion, down 4%. Power generation sales increased by 3% on continued demand for large diesel reciprocating engines. The other applications were lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impacts. Of note, sales into oil and gas applications decreased by $162 million or 11% due to the timing of turbine project deliveries in North America in last year's quarter, lower demand for new equipment in the Permian Basin, which were partly offset by higher turbine sales for production applications in EAME. Industrial sales declined by 1% with gains in most regions more than offset by currency-related impacts in EAME. Transportation sales declined by 3% primarily due to the timing of locomotive deliveries and reduced marine activity in North America, partially offset by higher sales in rail services. Segment profit for Energy & Transportation totaled $886 million, down $126 million or 12%. The segment profit margin contracted by 150 basis points to 16.2%. Energy & Transportation margins reflected lower sales volume, including an unfavorable mix of products and slightly higher manufacturing costs, partially offset by price realization.

如果你翻到第 11 張投影片，第二季能源和運輸銷售額為 55 億美元，下降 4%。由於大型柴油往復式引擎的持續需求，發電銷售額成長了 3%。其他原因是銷售量下降和不利的貨幣影響。值得注意的是，由於去年第一季北美渦輪機專案的交付時間安排，以及二疊紀盆地對新設備的需求較低，石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售額下降了 1.62 億美元或 11%，但歐洲、非洲和中東地區生產應用領域的渦輪機銷售額的增加部分抵消了這些影響。工業銷售額下降了 1%，大多數地區的成長被歐洲、非洲和中東地區的貨幣相關影響所抵消。運輸銷售額下降 3%，主要原因是機車交付時間表和北美海上活動的減少，但鐵路服務銷售額的增加部分抵消了下降。能源和運輸部門利潤總計 8.86 億美元，下降 1.26 億美元，下降 12%。該分部利潤率收縮150個基點至16.2%。能源與運輸利潤率反映出銷售量下降，包括產品組合不利和製造成本略高，但部分被價格實現所抵銷。

Turning to Slide 12. Let me touch on dealer inventories and backlog which play into our assumptions for the year. Dealer machines and engine inventories increased by about $500 million during the second quarter compared with an increase of about $100 million during the second quarter of 2018. The largest impact was in Construction Industries where dealers decreased inventory in the prior year's period. We previously have projected that total dealer inventories would be about flat for the full year. Based on current inventory levels, we now expect that dealer inventories will increase for the full year by about $900 million driven by Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Whilst dealer inventory levels are closer to the top end of our range, at this time, we are comfortable that this level is supported by positive end-user demand.

翻到幻燈片 12。讓我來談談經銷商庫存和積壓訂單，這些都與我們對今年的假設有關。第二季經銷商機器和引擎庫存增加了約 5 億美元，而 2018 年第二季則增加了約 1 億美元。受到最大影響的是建築業，該行業的經銷商在去年同期減少了庫存。我們之前曾預測全年經銷商總庫存將基本持平。根據目前的庫存水平，我們預計，在建築業和資源業的推動下，經銷商庫存將全年增加約 9 億美元。雖然經銷商的庫存水準更接近我們範圍的最高端，但目前，我們很高興看到這一水準得到了終端用戶積極需求的支撐。

At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the order backlog was $15 billion, about $1.9 billion lower than the first quarter of 2019 and down $2.7 billion from the balance at the end of the second quarter of 2018. The order backlog decreased across all 3 primary segments with the largest declines in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. In Construction Industries, we connect the backlog decline to slowing orders due to growth in dealer inventory. Also keep in mind that Construction Industries had a record quarter and it's not unusual for backlog to decline in CI in the second quarter itself. In Resource Industries, we improved throughput in factories and improved lead times, as Jim has described. And remember, orders do tend to be lumpy. As a point of reference, the total decline in the backlog of $2.7 billion since Q2 last year is about offset by the increase in dealer inventories for the same time period.

2019年第二季末，訂單積壓量為150億美元，比2019年第一季減少約19億美元，較2018年第二季末的餘額減少27億美元。三個主要領域的訂單積壓均有所減少，其中建築業和資源業的降幅最大。在建築業，我們將積壓訂單的下降與經銷商庫存成長導致的訂單放緩聯繫起來。還要記住的是，建築業創下了一個創紀錄的季度，而第二季度建築業積壓訂單下降並不罕見。在資源產業，我們提高了工廠的產量並縮短了交貨時間，正如吉姆所描述的。請記住，訂單往往會不穩定。作為參考，自去年第二季以來，積壓訂單總額下降了 27 億美元，但這一數字大約被同一時期經銷商庫存的增加所抵消。

Now let's walk through our assumptions for the 2019 outlook. We now expect profit per share to be near the low end of our range of $12.06 to $13.06, assuming a recovery in oil and gas near the end of the year and dealers working through part of the higher machine inventory levels. Quotation activity is unchanged. We assume price realization offsets manufacturing costs. And as I said, restructuring costs for the remainder of the year will be significantly lower with a maximum spend of $200 million.

現在讓我們來看看對2019年前景的假設。我們現在預計每股利潤將接近我們預期的 12.06 美元至 13.06 美元區間的低端，假設石油和天然氣在年底前復甦，經銷商能夠消化部分較高的機器庫存水準。報價活動沒有變更。我們假設價格實現抵銷了製造成本。正如我所說，今年剩餘時間的重組成本將大幅降低，最高支出為 2 億美元。

Other key assumptions are broadly unchanged, including $250 million to $350 million in tariffs for the year. We expect short-term incentive compensation to be a tailwind of about $600 million. We now project capital expenditures of about $1.3 billion. The estimated annual tax rate is unchanged at 26%, excluding discrete tax items.

其他關鍵假設基本上保持不變，包括今年的關稅為 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元。我們預計短期激勵薪酬將帶來約 6 億美元的順風。我們現在預計資本支出約為 13 億美元。預計年度稅率維持不變，為26%，不包括單一稅項。

Consistent with our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders, we are now projecting share repurchases in the second half to be similar to the first half. In fact, including all shares repurchased since the 1st of January 2018, we expect to reduce our total shares outstanding by about 9% by the end of 2019, all the while executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth. This reduction in share count is fully reflected in our guidance.

根據我們將大部分自由現金流返還給股東的意圖，我們預計下半年的股票回購量將與上半年相似。事實上，包括自 2018 年 1 月 1 日以來回購的所有股份在內，我們預計到 2019 年底我們的總流通股將減少約 9%，同時執行我們的策略並投資於長期獲利成長。股份數量的減少充分反映在我們的指引中。

Looking ahead to the third quarter, we will continue to execute our strategy, including making appropriate additional investments for longer term profitable growth. We anticipate stronger results in the fourth quarter, including increases in demand from oil and gas and rail customers.

展望第三季度，我們將繼續執行我們的策略，包括進行適當的額外投資，以實現更長期的獲利成長。我們預計第四季度業績將更加強勁，包括石油、天然氣和鐵路客戶的需求將增加。

So finally, let's turn to Slide 13 and recap today's key takeaways. We grew sales 3%. Operating profit rose 2%. Profit per share was comparable with the second quarter of last year. We have maintained our profit per share outlook, although we'd expect to be at the lower end of the range of $12.06 to $13.06. Again, this adjustment reflects mix changes, a fourth quarter recovery in oil and gas and dealers working through higher machine inventory levels, partially offset by lower restructuring charges in the second half of the year. We still expect modest sales growth this year and profit growth on top of last year's record results. We are also on track, including 2018 buybacks, to retire a total of about 9% of our shares outstanding by the 31st of December. And our financial position remains strong.

最後，讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片，回顧今天的重點。我們的銷售額成長了3%。營業利潤成長2%。每股獲利與去年第二季相當。我們維持每股利潤預期，儘管我們預計每股利潤將處於 12.06 美元至 13.06 美元區間的低端。再次，這項調整反映了產品組合的變化，第四季度石油和天然氣的復甦以及經銷商透過更高的機器庫存水準進行銷售，但下半年重組費用的降低部分抵消了這些影響。我們仍預期今年的銷售額將溫和成長，利潤將在去年創紀錄的業績基礎上成長。我們也按計畫進行，包括 2018 年的回購，到 12 月 31 日將共回購約 9% 的流通股。我們的財務狀況依然強勁。

With that, let me hand it back to Jennifer to begin the question-and-answer portion of the call.

說完這些，讓我將電話交還給詹妮弗，開始這次通話的問答部分。

Catherine, thank you. If you can now queue up the questions.

凱瑟琳，謝謝你。如果您現在可以排隊提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Rob Wertheimer from Millennium Capital (sic) [Melius Research].

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自 Millennium Capital（原文如此）[Melius Research] 的 Rob Wertheimer。

So thanks for the color on dealer inventory. I think that will be something investors want to talk about. I wanted to ask for just a little bit more clarity around it. I mean obviously, you don't control what the dealers do and it's their own decisions. But do you have a sense of what led to the sort of change to the building a little bit of inventory through the year versus the prior expectation? It doesn't seem like sales inflected up sharply since then. And then I can just wrap my follow-up into it. I mean, is the $900 million gap between what you thought and what sounds like it will be, is that the difference between your ideal level and where it may end? In other words, is that the downside risk for ongoing or maybe you could just characterize how big that gap is versus ideal?

感謝經銷商庫存的顏色。我認為這將是投資者想要談論的話題。我只是想就此問題尋求更清晰的答案。我的意思是，很明顯你無法控制經銷商的行為，這是他們自己的決定。但您是否知道，與先前的預期相比，是什麼導致了今年庫存建設發生了這樣的變化？自那時起，銷售額似乎並未大幅上漲。然後我就可以把我的後續工作放進去了。我的意思是，您想像的和聽起來的 9 億美元之間的差距，就是您理想中的水平和可能的水平之間的差異嗎？換句話說，這是持續的下行風險嗎？或者您能否描述一下與理想情況相比，這種差距有多大？

Okay. Rob, it's Jim. I'll take the first part of that question and maybe ask Andrew to do the second part. So as you mentioned, dealers are independent businesses and they control their own inventory levels. Inventory levels were lower than they normally are. And with that increase, we're back up to what is considered more of a normal level. I did talk about the fact that we had been successful in reducing our product lead times which also has an impact here as well. So that gives dealers a lot more flexibility in terms of where they place orders. Andrew, I'll let you do the second there.

好的。羅布，我是吉姆。我將回答該問題的第一部分，也許會讓安德魯回答第二部分。正如您所說，經銷商是獨立的企業，他們控制自己的庫存水準。庫存水準低於正常水準。隨著這種增長，我們又回到了更正常的水平。我確實談到了我們已經成功縮短了產品交付週期這一事實，這也產生了影響。這樣一來，經銷商在選擇訂購地點方面就擁有了更大的靈活性。安德魯，我讓你在那裡做第二件事。

Yes. On the $900 million reduction we expect for the remainder of the year, reduction to about $900 million. I mean we are slightly at the high end. We'd like to be in the middle of the range. We keep a range for each segment. We're always comfortable being in sort of midpoint of the range. This gets us to around about the midpoint from our perspective, Rob. So there would be potentially further reduction, but we were very low in that range previously. And as Jim indicated, that did have some impact on availability. Ultimately, at the end of the day, you want to make sure that dealers have the right amount of inventory to be able to meet customer demand. And probably given the challenges we've had previously, there may have been some loss of sales at dealer level as a result of not being able to supply quickly enough.

是的。我們預計今年剩餘時間的削減額將達到 9 億美元左右。我的意思是我們稍微處於高端。我們希望處於這個範圍的中間。我們為每個部分保留一個範圍。我們總是能安然地處於這個範圍的中間點。羅布，從我們的角度來看，這讓我們處於中間點。因此可能會進一步減少，但我們之前在這個範圍內的幅度非常低。正如吉姆所指出的，這確實對可用性產生了一定的影響。最終，您要確保經銷商擁有足夠數量的庫存以滿足客戶需求。可能考慮到我們之前遇到的挑戰，由於無法足夠快地供貨，經銷商層面的銷售額可能會有所損失。

Okay. I beg your pardon. So with the, I guess, reduction from here to the end of the year, you're saying you're going to be kind of roughly in the middle of the range, not necessarily low of where you'd like to be? Is that what you're saying?

好的。請再說一次。所以，我猜，從現在到年底的減幅，你是說將大致處於中間水平，而不一定低於你想要的水平？你是這個意思嗎？

Yes, that would characterize it. Yes, Rob.

是的，這就是它的特徵。是的，羅布。

Your next question is coming from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)。

I just wanted to follow up on the mix issues in the second quarter, how much that hurt earnings and what's implied for the back part of the year. And then just within oil and gas specifically, I think before you said you had expected orders to pick up in the back part of the year, in the second half, now you're saying the fourth quarter. I guess just sort of what gives you confidence that you should see that acceleration? And how much cushion could we potentially get from Solar in the fourth quarter?

我只是想跟進第二季度的組合問題，看看這對盈利有多大影響，以及對今年下半年有何影響。然後具體到石油和天然氣領域，我想之前您說過預計訂單會在今年下半年、也就是下半年增加，現在您說的是第四季。我想，是什麼讓您有信心看到這種加速呢？那麼，我們在第四季又能從太陽能獲得多少緩衝呢？

Jamie, it's Jim. So our oil and gas guidance for the year is dependent on certainly Solar having a strong fourth quarter. Solar has, as you know, the lead times are relatively long. They have the orders in hand for the new equipment side to execute that. There's always some variability in service, but we are expecting a big fourth quarter from Solar and fully expect them to make that happen. We are also expecting in the fourth quarter some recovery in recip engine sales in North America as the Permian constraint issues continue to be resolved.

傑米，我是吉姆。因此，我們今年的石油和天然氣預期取決於太陽能在第四季度的強勁表現。如您所知，太陽能的交貨時間相對較長。他們手上已經有新設備的訂單要執行。服務總是會有一些變化，但我們預計 Solar 第四季會有出色的表現，也完全相信他們能夠實現這一目標。隨著二疊紀盆地限制問題的持續解決，我們也預期第四季北美往復式引擎銷售將會復甦。

And Jamie, on the mix issues, obviously, the mix did have quite an impact in the quarter. If you look at -- we saw a small increase in volume, the sales level, but a negative move in the operating profit level. Principally, in CI, that was mostly due to the fact that we actually sold more small machines in the quarter. While they have similar margins, that can be quite sensitive to the overall mix impact. And then obviously, there's also a segmental mix. And the mix within E&T, similar mix issue in E&T particularly with the smaller engines being sold. And then also there's a segmental mix impact obviously because E&T does have very strong margins. And obviously, the margin deterioration impacted the reported mix as we look at variable margin in that business. All of those factors have been built into our guidance. So we have put that into why we expect to be at the low end of the range, along with the delay, particularly in oil and gas sales.

傑米，關於混合問題，顯然混合對本季確實產生了很大影響。如果你看一下——我們發現銷量、銷售水平略有增加，但營業利潤水平卻出現了負面變化。主要是由於我們在本季度實際上銷售了更多的小型機器。雖然它們的利潤率相似，但對整體組合影響卻非常敏感。顯然，還存在分段混合。E&T 內部的混合也存在類似的混合問題，特別是在銷售小型引擎時。而且顯然也存在分部組合影響，因為 E&T 的利潤率確實很高。顯然，當我們查看該業務的可變利潤率時，利潤率的下降影響了報告的組合。所有這些因素都已納入我們的指導中。因此，我們將其納入了為什麼我們預計會處於範圍的低端，以及延遲，特別是在石油和天然氣銷售方面。

Your next question is coming from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I'm trying to think through the second half implied guidance. Just so we set the framework, it looks like you're implying revenues down, say, about $500 million first half to second half, but the EPS grows about $0.25 to $0.50. And I'm just trying to understand, I can see about $0.15 from lower restructuring sequentially and maybe about $0.05 from the lower share count, so that's about $0.20. But then I would have figured the rest would have been, you see better price/cost second half than first half more than offsetting some overhead absorption issues with the lower volume. But I thought earlier you made a comment price/cost, maybe I missed it, sort of neutral the rest of the year. Can you clarify that? Just want to get the EPS walk first half to second half.

我正在嘗試思考下半年的隱含指引。就像我們設定的框架一樣，看起來你暗示收入從上半年到下半年下降了約 5 億美元，但每股收益增長了約 0.25 美元到 0.50 美元。我只是想知道，我可以看到，重組連續降低大約會帶來 0.15 美元，而股票數量減少大約會帶來 0.05 美元，所以這大約是 0.20 美元。但後來我想，剩下的情況會是，你會看到下半年的價格/成本比上半年更好，這足以抵消由於銷售量較低而產生的一些間接費用吸收問題。但我之前以為您對價格/成本做出了評論，也許我錯過了，今年剩餘時間我對此持中立態度。你能澄清一下嗎？只想讓 EPS 從上半年延續到下半年。

Yes. Thanks, David. And yes, so first of all, we don't give sales guidance. So your assumption around sales may be slightly different from our assumptions. So that may have been part of the impact that we're seeing. As Jim indicated, we do expect both rail and solar and oil and gas to pick up in the fourth quarter. All of those will have an impact and remember that obviously E&T is down for the first half of the year when you look at that. So as you think about it from a top line perspective, there may be some variability we see versus where you are on your top line.

是的。謝謝，大衛。是的，首先，我們不提供銷售指導。因此，您對銷售的假設可能與我們的假設略有不同。這可能是我們看到的部分影響。正如吉姆所指出的，我們確實預計鐵路、太陽能、石油和天然氣產業在第四季都會回升。所有這些都會產生影響，請記住，從這一點來看，今年上半年 E&T 顯然處於下滑狀態。因此，當您從營業收入的角度考慮時，我們可能會看到與您的營業收入水平存在一些差異。

With regards to margins and operating margins, obviously, there are seasonal factors that come into play. But as we did indicate, we are starting to see a little bit of relief from underlying manufacturing cost increases. Obviously, the tariffs, we start now anniversary-ing. Freight costs have started to pick up in the second quarter of last year. So those factors will have less of an impact on overall manufacturing cost. Offset against that a little bit will be some variability. If we do actually take down some production, obviously, we'll have a little bit lower inventory absorption. So those are all factors which we've weighed into our guidance. Then obviously, we are starting to see some things like steel costs come down. Steel, obviously, we do a lot of our steel buying on a contractual basis and there is a lag, but we are starting to see some of those things flow through as well into the second half.

就利潤率和營業利潤率而言，顯然季節性因素會發揮作用。但正如我們所指出的，我們開始看到製造成本成長的基本面有所緩解。顯然，我們現在開始慶祝關稅週年紀念日。去年第二季起，運費成本開始上漲。因此這些因素對整體製造成本的影響較小。與此稍微抵消的是一些變化。如果我們確實減少了一些產量，顯然我們的庫存吸收量會稍微降低一些。所以這些都是我們在製定指導時要考慮的因素。顯然，我們開始看到鋼鐵成本等方面的下降。鋼鐵，顯然，我們很多鋼鐵採購都是在合約基礎上進行的，因此存在一定的滯後，但我們開始看到其中一些採購也延續到了下半年。

And then trying to set up the look into 2020. We've already discussed the inventory. But for the backlog, seasonally, you can see how CI might continue to go down. But when you think about your commentary the rest of the year on mining and engines, E&T, are we making the assumption then that the backlog is somewhat bottoming out here because RI and E&T offset CI sequentially? We're just trying to sort of get a baseline kind of exiting the year. Have we seen, generally speaking, the bottom of the backlog with this $15 billion?

然後嘗試將這種外觀設定為 2020 年的樣子。我們已經討論過庫存了。但對於積壓訂單，從季節性來看，你可以看到 CI 可能會繼續下降。但是，當您考慮今年剩餘時間對採礦和發動機、E&T 的評論時，我們是否會假設積壓訂單在這裡已經觸底，因為 RI 和 E&T 依次抵消了 CI？我們只是想為這一年畫下一個圓滿的句點。整體來說，我們是否已經看到這 150 億美元的積壓量已經觸底？

Yes. I mean I think, David, one of the problems with focusing very much on the backlog is, remind you, that this is reflected with dealer demand. There will have been some elements as a result of an ability to or delays in supplying orders, availability of product that dealers may actually have been putting slots in the queue. And we have seen that happen before and that may have happened this time as well. Obviously, what does happen with the order backlog is it is lumpy, particularly in places like RI, rail, Solar. So we are keeping an eye on it. There's nothing indicating that from a retail, if you look at the retail stats, just remind you, they are up again. So there's nothing indicating underlying customer demand is changing. This may be behavior by dealers and their ordering patterns as well.

是的。我的意思是，大衛，我認為，過度專注於積壓訂單的問題之一是，提醒你，這反映在經銷商的需求上。由於訂單供應能力或延遲、產品供應不足等因素，經銷商可能實際上已經將庫存排在了隊列中。我們以前曾見過這種情況，這次也可能發生。顯然，訂單積壓的情況是不穩定的，特別是在羅德島州、鐵路、太陽能等領域。所以我們對此保持關注。沒有任何跡象表明，從零售角度來看，如果你看一下零售統計數據，你會發現它們又上漲了。因此沒有任何跡象表明潛在的客戶需求正在改變。這也可能是經銷商的行為及其訂購模式。

And again, just to expand upon how you think about the lumpiness in Solar and rail. Obviously, if you have a big fourth quarter, there's a lot of shipments that were in the backlog, obviously, the backlog will go down. Again, that happens every year. That's the nature of the beast.

再次，只是想擴展你對太陽能和鐵路之間的不平衡的看法。顯然，如果第四季的銷量很好，就會有大量的貨物積壓，那麼積壓的貨物數量顯然就會減少。同樣的，這種事每年都會發生。這就是野獸的本性。

Okay. I'm sorry, Jim. So part of the $15 billion, you would argue, is reflective of why you're confident in the fourth quarter shipments of those businesses, but at the same time it could help draw the backlog down from here if there aren't new orders to fill it in, so to speak?

好的。對不起，吉姆。所以，您會說，150 億美元中的一部分反映了為什麼您對這些業務的第四季度出貨量充滿信心，但與此同時，如果沒有新訂單來填補，這是否可以幫助減少積壓訂單？

Yes. And certainly, and again, that happens every year, well, say, every year, typically. Solar, in particular, has a big fourth quarter, so we would expect again shipments occur, backlog goes down. But again, the business continues to be healthy and good quotation activity. So we would expect that there'll be a normal seasonal pattern at Solar in terms of backlog and inventory.

是的。確實，這種情況每年都會發生，嗯，通常來說，每年都會發生。尤其是太陽能，第四季的銷售量很大，因此我們預計出貨量將再次增加，積壓訂單將減少。但再次，業務繼續保持健康和良好的報價活動。因此，我們預計 Solar 的積壓訂單和庫存將呈現正常的季節性模式。

Your next question is coming from Ross Gilardi from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯·吉拉迪。

I was just wondering if you'd give a little more color on the 3 new greenfield sites for autonomous and the timing there. Are these retrofits or new trucks and equipment? And is that a positive driver into 2020 or is it much further out?

我只是想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹這 3 個新的自主綠地網站以及具體時間表。這些是改裝的還是新的卡車和設備？這是否會對 2020 年產生正面影響，還是會持續更久？

Yes, it's a multiyear. We're going to make deliveries over a number of years and so they are new trucks. Again, these are greenfield sites. So again, a lot of new technology, but the deliveries will occur not just in 1 year, it'll be over more than 1 year.

是的，這是多年的事了。我們將在幾年內進行交付，所以它們是新卡車。再次強調，這些都是未開發地區。再次強調，有許多新技術，但交付不僅會在 1 年內發生，而是持續 1 年以上的時間。

Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about your confidence in the China excavator outlook for the second half of '19? I mean it sounds like your full year outlook is broadly unchanged. And as you cited, there's some competitive pressures there. I mean how much visibility do you have on that business for the rest of '19?

好的。那麼您能否談談您對2019年下半年中國挖土機前景的信心？我的意思是，聽起來你對全年的展望基本上沒有改變。正如您所說，那裡存在一些競爭壓力。我的意思是，您對 19 年剩餘時間該業務的了解程度如何？

Yes. Based on everything that we see, we believe that overall the market demand will be stable. We have mentioned the fact that we have some competitive pricing pressures from local competitors. We're certainly taking steps to ensure our competitiveness long term in China. We're introducing a number of new GC products that will help us compete as well. But again, we feel good about our forecast there in China.

是的。從我們看到的情況來看，我們相信整體市場需求將保持穩定。我們曾經提到過，我們面臨來自本地競爭對手的競爭性定價壓力。我們肯定會採取措施確保我們在中國的長期競爭力。我們正在推出一些新的 GC 產品，這將有助於我們提高競爭力。但我們對在中國的預測仍然感到樂觀。

Okay. Just lastly, Andrew, you mentioned that your share count should be down 9% by the end of this year with the buybacks. Beyond '19, if you did $4 billion to $5 billion in buybacks, I think that will retire about 6% of the share count at today's price. I'm just wondering how much of that 6% is fair to assume is offset by share issuance for employees, options, et cetera, just net of equity issuance. I'm just trying to get a better sense for how much the share count should be falling each year beyond this year.

好的。最後，安德魯，您提到，隨著回購，到今年年底，您的股票數量應該會下降 9%。在2019年以後，如果你回購了40億到50億美元的股票，我認為以今天的價格計算，這將收回大約6%的股票。我只是想知道，可以合理地假設這 6% 中有多少是透過向員工發行股票、選擇權等來抵銷的，只扣除股權發行。我只是想更了解今年以後每年的股票數量應該會下降多少。

Yes. So obviously, the 9% -- around 9% is a net number, so that's net of new issuance. So effectively given that we had spent $3.8 billion last year, we expect somewhat to be in the sort of or at least the $2.1 billion in the first half, something similar in the second half. If you're doing about $4 billion, you generally retire about 4.5% of the share capital each year.

是的。因此顯然，9%——大約 9% 是一個淨數字，也就是扣除新發行額後的淨額。因此，考慮到我們去年已經花了 38 億美元，我們預計上半年的支出將至少達到 21 億美元，下半年的支出也將大致相同。如果你的投資金額約為 40 億美元，那麼通常每年你會收回約 4.5% 的股本。

Okay. So share count just sort of as a base case assumption at the current stock price is probably falling 4% to 5% a year beyond 2019?

好的。那麼，以目前股價計算，股票數量只是一種基本假設，到 2019 年以後，每年可能都會下跌 4% 到 5%？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Your next question is coming from Joel Tiss from BMO Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Joel Tiss。

So just it sounds like some pieces are setting up 2020 to be a little bit more of a difficult year with the incentive comp down so much this year and the dealer inventory is up a little more. Can you give us some of the pieces that -- to kind of balance that out? What would be on the other side of that? I'm not asking for forecast, just kind of a couple of bigger factors to think about.

因此，聽起來，有些人認為 2020 年會是更艱難的一年，因為今年的激勵補償大幅下降，而經銷商庫存則有所增加。您能否給我們一些方法來平衡這一點？那另一邊會是什麼？我並不是要求預測，只是要求考慮一些更大的因素。

Yes. I mean let's remember that we have had quite a tough year in E&T so far. Obviously, if Permian takeaway issues are resolved and drilling activity goes up, that will be one area where we'd see some upside in 2020. I think if you look also at underlying demand for machines, it remains strong. So again, that's other opportunities for us as we move into 2020. We will always retain our focus on a flexible and competitive cost structure. We want to invest in the right things for the business to drive long-term profitable growth, but we still always do need to make sure that we are operating as efficiently as possible, and those are other areas where we will continue to see some opportunity to drive growth as we move forward.

是的。我的意思是，讓我們記住，到目前為止，我們在 E&T 領域度過了相當艱難的一年。顯然，如果二疊紀的開採問題得到解決，鑽探活動增加，這將是我們在 2020 年看到一些上漲的領域之一。我認為如果你也看看對機器的潛在需求，它仍然強勁。所以，當我們邁入 2020 年時，這對我們來說又是一次機會。我們將始終專注於靈活且具競爭力的成本結構。我們希望在正確的事情上進行投資，以推動業務的長期盈利增長，但我們始終需要確保我們盡可能高效地運營，而這些也是我們在未來繼續看到推動成長機會的其他領域。

That's great. And then my second question is about something you mentioned there, too. The cost reductions, like it's you guys have done a lot, a lot of work there. And it seems like the cost structure is seemingly not as responsive to the fluctuations, like quarterly fluctuations in the business. Is that more structural or is it cyclical just that you're kind of scrambling to get stuff out the door? Can you give us any color behind the scenes of what to think about or are those kind of more long-term changes to the company and we can't worry about the near-term results?

那太棒了。我的第二個問題也與您提到的一些事情有關。降低成本，就像你們在那裡做了很多很多的工作。而且成本結構似乎對波動（例如業務的季度波動）沒有那麼敏感。這是更具結構性的還是週期性的，只是你急於把東西推出去？您能否向我們介紹一下幕後情況，看看我們對此有何看法，或者這些都是公司更長期的變化，我們不必擔心短期結果？

Yes. I think we don't respond to quarterly -- by quarter movements. We're trying to drive the business for the long term. So Joel, as we look at the cost structure, we do try to make sure we've got a long-term focus on that and don't do things just for short term cost-cutting measures. We can all do those. We've all seen people do those. Longer term, it's not what drives you well because what tends to happen is investment then gets cut off, which isn't the right thing to do for long-term shareholder value creation.

是的。我認為我們不會對每季的變動做出反應。我們正在努力推動業務的長期發展。因此，喬爾，當我們審視成本結構時，我們確實會努力確保我們對此進行長期關注，而不是只為了短期的成本削減措施。我們都能做到。我們都看過人們這麼做。從長遠來看，這不會為你帶來好運，因為往往會導致投資被切斷，這對長期股東價值創造來說並不是正確的做法。

But I would say that, Joel, we certainly challenge all of our leaders to find ways to become more efficient and reduce cost. So we still believe we have opportunities over the next few years to continue to improve our cost structure. So again, as Andrew mentioned, while continuing to invest in those areas, particularly like services, like our digital capabilities that drive long-term profitable growth.

但我想說，喬爾，我們確實向所有領導者挑戰，讓他們找到提高效率和降低成本的方法。因此我們仍然相信未來幾年我們有機會繼續改善我們的成本結構。正如安德魯所提到的那樣，我們將繼續投資這些領域，特別是服務領域，例如推動長期獲利成長的數位能力。

And sorry, Joel, just to add one thing on 2020 which I did forget was about Resource Industries. I mean obviously mining, we are only in the start of the recovery phase and replacement cycle. There is a lot of potential still of areas to run as miners start actually bumping up CapEx. All commodities remain at investable levels, so we do expect that to continue to improve as we look out as well.

抱歉，喬爾，我只想補充一點關於 2020 年的事情，我確實忘記了，那是關於資源產業的。我的意思是，顯然，對於採礦業來說，我們才剛剛處於恢復階段和替代週期的開始階段。隨著礦工開始真正增加資本支出，仍有許多潛力領域可以挖掘。所有商品都保持著可投資的水平，因此我們確實預計，隨著我們的觀察，這種情況將繼續改善。

Your next question is coming from Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Daiwa Capital 的 Jairam Nathan。

My question was regarding rail. You mentioned a strong 4Q but we are seeing some of the implementation of PSR on the railroad side. They are cutting down the number of locomotives they use. And at the same time, volumes are starting to decline as well, rail volumes. So just wondering, is this expectation of the U.S. or more international?

我的問題是關於鐵路的。您提到第四季度業績強勁，但我們看到鐵路方面正在實施一些 PSR。他們正在減少使用的機車數量。同時，鐵路運輸量也開始下降。所以我想知道，這是美國的期望還是國際社會的期望？

Yes. It's really based overall on the backlog that we have in rail for new locomotives. But certainly, I mentioned earlier, the one example we gave of repower. So our rail business is a direct business and there's a large service element to it as well. So it is not completely dependent upon new locomotive sales. Having said that, of course, we are expanding internationally. We've shipped our first transit locomotives since we made the acquisition of EMD a number of years ago. So again, we are not totally dependent upon new locomotives in North America. We certainly understand the environment in which we're operating. But again, what we're talking about is an expected strong fourth quarter based on backlog on hand for rail.

是的。這其實完全取決於我們在鐵路領域新機車的積壓。但可以肯定的是，我之前提到過，我們給了一個重新授權的例子。所以我們的鐵路業務是直接業務，而且其中也包含很大的服務元素。因此它並不完全依賴新機車的銷售。話雖如此，我們當然正在向國際擴張。自從幾年前我們收購 EMD 以來，我們已經運送了第一批運輸機車。所以，我們並不完全依賴北美的新機車。我們當然了解我們營運的環境。但是，我們再次談論的是基於鐵路庫存積壓，預計第四季將出現強勁成長。

And my last question was on margins on resource. You mentioned warranty expense increase. Can you expand on that? Is that more volume-related or is there something else there?

我的最後一個問題是關於資源利潤。您提到保固費用增加。能詳細闡述嗎？這是否與音量有關，還是有其他原因？

It was a particular issue with a particular product that happened. These things do happen. They do tend to be lumpy. And that's been a driver in this quarter.

這是發生於特定產品上的特定問題。這些事情確實會發生。它們確實往往比較塊狀。這也是本季的一個推動因素。

Your next question is coming from Sameer Rathod from Macquarie Research.

您的下一個問題來自麥格理研究部的 Sameer Rathod。

There's some interesting developments made in electrifying the frac fleet. So my question is, how does Caterpillar see this market evolving? Do you think it could pose a risk longer term to the diesel engine and parts business or do you think the applications are limited?

在壓裂車隊電氣化方面取得了一些有趣的進展。所以我的問題是，卡特彼勒如何看待這個市場的發展？您認為它會對柴油引擎和零件業務造成長期風險嗎？或者您認為其應用有限嗎？

And I'm sorry, I can barely hear you. Did you say electrification in fracking? Is that the question?

很抱歉，我幾乎聽不見你說話。你說的是水力壓裂中的電氣化嗎？這是問題嗎？

Yes. Electrification in fracking.

是的。水力壓裂中的電氣化。

Yes. You bet. So we have been very involved working with customers both on the recip engine side and on the gas turbine side on what people call the e-fracking opportunity. So we are well positioned to participate in both of those areas. We have sold some gas turbines which are generator sets that allow customers to do e-fracking. We're also working on recip solutions as well working with customers. So I believe it will be a mix market with both, and we'll see which one is stronger in the end, but we participate in both ways, both for electrification and non and also both in our recip engines and with gas turbines. So we're well positioned to play across that value chain.

是的。當然。因此，我們一直積極與往復式發動機和燃氣渦輪機的客戶合作，共同探索所謂的電子水力壓裂機會。因此，我們完全有能力參與這兩個領域。我們已經銷售了一些燃氣渦輪機，它們是發電機組，可以幫助客戶進行電子水力壓裂。我們也致力於提供互惠解決方案並與客戶合作。所以我相信這將是一個混合市場，我們會看到最終哪一個更強大，但我們以兩種方式參與，既包括電氣化也包括非電氣化，也包括我們的往復式發動機和燃氣渦輪機。因此，我們已做好準備，可以參與整個價值鏈。

Your next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

You folks sounded more positive tone on large mining truck order cadence than I think we've heard from you in a while. Can you just talk about what in your view has driven a slower replacement cycle in this recovery so far? Is it the autonomous decisions that have to be made? And can you just expand a bit more, Andrew, on your comments that there's scope for move towards replacement as you think about the moving piece around '20? So it does sound like you expect order decisions to be made obviously in advance of '20 for that to play out. So maybe I can get you to expand on that, too.

我認為，你們對大型採礦卡車訂單節奏的態度比我們之前聽到的更為積極。您能否談談您認為迄今為止導致本次復甦中更換週期放緩的原因是什麼？這是必須做出的自主決定嗎？安德魯，您能否進一步闡述您的評論，即當您考慮 20 年左右的移動部件時，存在向替換邁進的空間？因此，聽起來您似乎期望在 20 年之前做出訂單決定，以便實現這一目標。所以也許我也可以讓您進一步闡述這一點。

Jerry, this is Jim. I'll take it. So we see strong quotation activity on a global basis for all commodities. So as we work directly with our customers and with our dealers, there is increasing quotation activity. There's a lot of projects that are being developed. We've talked about some orders that we've received. Certainly, I believe and I actually hope there'll be less volatility than there has been in the past. It will be more of a slow steady ramp up, but the quotation activity is quite strong. And again, it's across all commodities.

傑瑞，這是吉姆。我要買它。因此，我們看到全球所有商品的報價活動都很強勁。因此，當我們直接與客戶和經銷商合作時，報價活動就會增加。有很多項目正在開發中。我們討論了一些收到的訂單。當然，我相信，而且我實際上希望波動性會比過去降低。這將是一個緩慢穩定的成長，但報價活動相當強勁。再次強調，它適用於所有商品。

And just to add, I mean, the parked fleet is at an all-time low since we've been tracking that number in 2013. So it is an opportunity definitely. We do believe that now we will be starting to see replacements starting to come through.

補充一下，我的意思是，自 2013 年我們開始追蹤這一數字以來，停泊的車輛數量一直處於歷史最低水平。所以這絕對是一個機會。我們確實相信，現在我們將開始看到替代品的出現。

And we do expect our mining customers to be disciplined in their capital expenditures. So again, that ties into my earlier comment about more of a slow steady increase than a volatile increase. They will be, again, cautious and disciplined, but we expect the business to continue to improve on a slow and steady basis.

我們確實希望我們的礦業客戶能夠嚴格控制資本支出。所以，這與我之前關於緩慢穩定成長而非波動成長的評論相吻合。他們將再次保持謹慎和紀律，但我們預計業務將繼續緩慢而穩定地改善。

Okay. And in Construction Industries, you folks have worked really hard to get the cost structure to where it is today. Given the dealer inventory build both across new equipment, used equipment and the utilization pressures, I guess can you talk about what's the potential for you folks to more actively manage orders. You mentioned there are some slots that are potentially placeholders, et cetera, so what's the opportunity for you folks to get ahead of the eventual order declines given what some of the leading indicators are doing, cut production earlier to keep the swings from being really painful on the manufacturing base.

好的。在建築業，你們付出了很多努力才讓成本結構達到今天的水準。考慮到經銷商庫存包括新設備和二手設備以及利用率壓力，我想您能否談談您更積極管理訂單的潛力是什麼。您提到有一些位置可能是佔位符等等，那麼考慮到一些領先指標的表現，你們有什麼機會在最終的訂單下降之前提前削減產量，以防止波動對製造業造成真正痛苦。

Yes. Just to be clear, so firstly, let me start with, we released our retail stats this morning. And so business is improving, so let's start with that. But certainly, shorter lead times is very important. We've been on this lean journey for a long time and having shorter lead times allows us to respond much more quickly to changes in demand.

是的。為了清楚起見，首先，我們今天早上發布了零售統計數據。因此業務正在改善，所以我們從那裡開始。但可以肯定的是，縮短交貨時間非常重要。我們已經在精益之路上走了很長時間，更短的交貨時間使我們能夠更快地回應需求的變化。

Andrew, the comment was, I guess, more focused on North America than overall. So the retail sales were up 7%. The company sales were up 28%. So we're building inventories in North America specifically. So I'm wondering what's the potential to get out in front and cut production earlier in the cycle.

安德魯，我猜這個評論更多的是關注北美而不是整體。因此零售額成長了7%。該公司銷售額成長了28%。因此，我們專門在北美建立庫存。所以我想知道，在周期早期是否有可能領先並削減產量。

Yes. So Jerry, as I spoke in my comments, we did see some takedown of Caterpillar inventory, finished goods inventory, so we do continue to focus on that. Obviously, with lean manufacturing, we are obviously -- we don't hold a lot of finished goods inventory. Most of the inventories are held actually in the component level, so actually bought in. So actually that is one thing we continue to focus on. But obviously, we will look at making sure that we don't -- as we said, we will take down dealer inventory in the second half and then we'll have some impact on production base.

是的。所以傑瑞，正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我們確實看到卡特彼勒庫存和成品庫存有所減少，因此我們會繼續關注這一點。顯然，透過精益製造，我們顯然不會持有大量的成品庫存。大多數庫存實際上都處於零件級別，因此實際上是買入的。因此實際上這是我們持續關注的一件事。但顯然，我們將確保不會——正如我們所說的，我們將在下半年減少經銷商庫存，然後對生產基礎產生一些影響。

Your next question is coming from Ann Duignan from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

If I could turn back to oil and gas. I'd like to really understand your confidence in the fourth quarter pickup in sales. Is this products that dealers have ordered? So it's shipments to dealers or is it real end-market demand? And if you could just talk about your mix in oil and gas, well completions versus drilling, so we know which one is more important to demand for your products.

如果我能重新回到石油和天然氣領域。我想真正了解您對第四季銷售回升的信心。這是經銷商訂購的產品嗎？那麼這是對經銷商的出貨量還是真正的終端市場需求呢？如果您可以談論石油和天然氣的組合，完井與鑽井，那麼我們就知道哪一個對您的產品需求更重要。

Ann, again, starting -- part of the oil and gas pickup, as I mentioned earlier, is due to Solar, where we have the backlog and the orders in hand and it's a matter of executing, but with some variability in service but we feel good about that. So that is part of it. If you go to the recip side of it, gas compression remains strong. We are expecting an increase in end-user demand for fracking that will impact our business towards the end of the year.

安，再次開始——正如我之前提到的，石油和天然氣回升的部分原因是太陽能，我們手頭上有積壓訂單，這是一個執行的問題，但服務方面存在一些變化，但我們對此感到滿意。這是其中的一部分。如果你轉到它的往復側，氣體壓縮仍然保持強勁。我們預計最終用戶對水力壓裂的需求將會增加，這將對我們的年底業務產生影響。

And on the fracking side, is that actually drilling or is that well completions? I'm trying to understand which one drives your business more.

就水力壓裂而言，這實際上是鑽井還是完井？我想了解哪一個對您的業務更有利。

It's mostly well service.

大部分都是很好的服務。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then my follow-up question is more, if we look back at year-to-date performance, sales are up, but in fact adjusted net income is down. So Jim, should we be growing concern, should investors be growing concerned about your commitment to profitable growth? I mean I know you can say you're at record levels, but net income is actually down on adjusted basis year-to-date.

好的。我很感激。我的後續問題是，如果我們回顧今年迄今為止的表現，銷售額是上升的，但實際上調整後的淨收入是下降的。那麼吉姆，我們是否應該越來越擔心，投資人是否應該越來越擔心你對獲利成長的承諾？我的意思是，我知道你可以說你的收入達到了創紀錄的水平，但今年迄今為止，按調整後的基礎計算，淨收入實際上是下降的。

Yes. So we are so very committed to profitably growing our business, and we're making investments to make that happen. We talked about this in Investor Day as well, that we do expect quarterly variability in our performance, but we're very much focused on improving year to year. We've talked in our call this morning about some of the issues we had in terms of lumpiness in restructuring charges and we had some inventory impact. We did have some mix impact. And we will have, just given the nature of our business, we will have quarterly deviations in our performance. But we're really driving for is medium and long-term profitable growth and we're investing to make that happen. We're committed to continue to improve our cost structure structurally. I talked about that earlier. And we believe we have opportunities there over the next few years to take that on, and we're very committed to that profitable growth story. But again, we will have quarterly deviations, there's no question.

是的。因此，我們非常致力於實現業務的獲利性成長，並且我們正在進行投資以實現這一目標。我們也在投資者日談到了這一點，我們確實預計我們的業績會在每個季度有所變化，但我們非常注重逐年改進。我們在今天早上的電話會議上討論了重組費用不均等方面的一些問題以及一些庫存影響。我們確實受到了一些混合影響。鑑於我們業務的性質，我們的業績每季都會有所偏差。但我們真正追求的是中長期獲利成長，並且我們正在進行投資以實現這一目標。我們致力於繼續從結構上改善我們的成本結構。我之前談過這個。我們相信，未來幾年我們有機會實現這一目標，並且我們非常致力於實現這一盈利成長故事。但毫無疑問，我們每季都會出現偏差。

And yes, but if I look at 6 of the last 7 quarters, your stock has underperformed. So is there something you can do structurally going forward to help us understand this variability?

是的，但如果我看過去 7 個季度中的 6 個季度，你的股票表現不佳。那麼，從結構上講，您可以做些什麼來幫助我們理解這種變化？

Yes. Again, what we're driving towards is profitably growing our company. And if we profitably grow our company, I believe that will be reflected in the stock price. And we're going to have, again, as we talked earlier, we expect to have another record year in earnings per share this year, another record year.

是的。再說一遍，我們的目標是實現公司獲利成長。如果我們公司實現獲利成長，我相信這將反映在股價上。正如我們之前所說的，我們預計今年的每股盈餘將再創紀錄，再創紀錄。

Your next question is coming from Timothy Thein from Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Timothy Thein。

The first question is on RI and specifically, Andrew, you had mentioned earlier that OE was a big driver or a driver for growth in the quarter. So I'm not sure exactly what that means for part sales. But really the question relates to the sustainability of pricing which was up against some pretty tough comp again in the second quarter. And just as you see, basically, the question is the trade-off on as your OE volumes presumably capture a bigger part of the total within mining, how should we expect that trade-off to play out in terms of pricing on OE relative to parts?

第一個問題是關於 RI 的，具體來說，安德魯，您之前提到 OE 是本季成長的主要動力。所以我不確定這對零件銷售到底意味著什麼。但真正的問題與定價的可持續性有關，而定價在第二季度再次面臨相當嚴峻的競爭。正如您所看到的，基本上，問題在於權衡，因為您的 OE 數量可能佔據採礦總量的更大份額，我們應該如何預期這種權衡在 OE 相對於零件的定價方面發揮作用？

Yes. So obviously, we did have, in the first quarter actually, we had a really strong quarter. I think it was a record quarter for part sales within Resource Industries and part of that was driven by the fact, obviously, rebuilds are still continuing. Yes, there will be a mix impact. It depends on what equipment was selling and the relative mix of parts and services versus OE. That will be part of how we manage that business. Obviously, the advantage you have on OE is as you improve throughput, you do improve operating leverage. As I say, we actually have seen these 2 quarters, the first and the second quarter have been the 2 best quarters in our eyes since 2012 when actually sales were -- revenues were nearly double what they are today. So I think we will see lumpiness. We will see movement. That's the nature of that business particularly given the way we actually deliver our products to customers, but we're quite comfortable with the sort of the relative margin performance. And again, we will look at them over time rather than just purely quarter-to-quarter.

是的。顯然，第一季我們的業績確實非常強勁。我認為這是資源工業零件銷售創紀錄的一個季度，部分原因顯然是由於重建仍在繼續。是的，會產生混合影響。這取決於所銷售設備的種類以及與 OE 相比零件和服務的相對組合。這將是我們管理該業務的一部分。顯然，您在 OE 方面的優勢在於，隨著您提高吞吐量，您確實會提高營運槓桿。正如我所說，我們實際上已經看到這兩個季度，第一季和第二季是自 2012 年以來我們認為最好的兩個季度，當時的實際銷售額——收入幾乎是今天的兩倍。所以我認為我們會看到不平衡現象。我們將會看到動靜。這就是業務的本質，特別是考慮到我們實際向客戶交付產品的方式，但我們對相對利潤率的表現非常滿意。再次強調，我們會隨著時間的推移而不是僅僅逐季度地觀察它們。

Okay. Got it. And Jim, maybe one last one on oil and gas and specifically your comments to a question recently just on well servicing. A number of the big service companies have commented just in the past few days about cutting CapEx budgets, some of them pretty significantly. So I just want to come back in terms of kind of what's underlying that assumption that we do get this pickup of recovery in the fourth quarter.

好的。知道了。吉姆，也許最後一個問題是關於石油和天然氣，特別是你最近對一個關於油井服務的問題的評論。過去幾天，許多大型服務公司都表示將削減資本支出預算，其中一些公司削減幅度相當大。因此，我只是想回到那個假設的基礎之上，即我們確實在第四季度實現了復甦。

Yes. Again, it's our perception of what's going to happen as the takeaway issues in the Permian are resolved. So I'll leave it there.

是的。再說一遍，這是我們對二疊紀盆地外賣問題解決後會發生什麼的看法。所以我就把它留在那裡了。

Your last question is coming from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.

您的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Courtney Yakavonis。

Just a couple of clarifications. First on restructuring. Can you just help us understand. I think the first quarter you said was pretty minimal. So how much of that $158 million was hitting this quarter? And in which segments it was showing up? And then if you can also quantify the warranty charge that was in resources. And then just more broadly when we think about your China business. With APAC sales down as much as they were this quarter in construction, how should we be thinking about the margin for that business as you're continuing to introduce these GC products relative to what you had been getting in light of all these competitive pricing pressures?

只需澄清幾點。首先是重組。你能幫助我們理解一下嗎？我認為您所說的第一季相當少。那麼，本季的 1.58 億美元中有多少是到帳的呢？它出現在哪些片段中？然後，如果您也可以量化資源中的保固費用。當我們更廣泛地考慮您的中國業務時。本季亞太地區建築業銷售額大幅下降，考慮到所有這些競爭激烈的價格壓力，在您繼續推出這些 GC 產品的同時，我們應該如何考慮該業務的利潤率？

Yes. Courtney, maybe start with restructuring. The charge in the first quarter was $48 million and the second quarter was $110 million. The $48 million is in our Q so you can always refer back to that. Most of it actually was incurred and this is held within the corporate item. There is some move back into the businesses but very limited and very small, not materially impacting their reported margins.

是的。考特尼，也許從重組開始。第一季的費用為 4,800 萬美元，第二季的費用為 1.1 億美元。這 4800 萬美元在我們的 Q 中，因此您可以隨時參考。其中大部分實際上已經發生，並被計入公司專案。業務有所回升，但幅度非常有限且非常小，不會對其報告的利潤率產生重大影響。

With regards to warranty expense, we don't actually break down the analysis of manufacturing cost, but the fact we're calling it out just shows it was a significant item in the quarter. But obviously, and it did have an impact on the overall performance in RI in the comparison in Q1 versus Q2.

關於保固費用，我們實際上並沒有細分製造成本的分析，但我們將其指出來只是表明它是本季的一項重要費用。但顯然，與第一季和第二季相比，它確實對 RI 的整體表現產生了影響。

China, new products?

中國，新產品？

Yes, sorry. On China new products, obviously, GC products are a lower price point but have similar margins as we said before. So overall, this shouldn't impact reported margins as much. Obviously, the most important thing is making sure we retain a good competitive position. This quarter was impacted in part -- the reported revenues were impacted in part by the timing of Chinese New Year. We did see the benefit of that in Q1 which did have a negative impact in Q2.

是的，抱歉。就中國新產品而言，顯然，GC 產品的價格較低，但利潤率與我們之前所說的相似。因此總體而言，這不會對報告的利潤率產生太大影響。顯然，最重要的是確保我們保持良好的競爭地位。本季受到了一定影響——報告的收入在一定程度上受到了農曆新年時間的影響。我們確實在第一季看到了它的好處，但在第二季卻產生了負面影響。

And with that, we'll turn it back to Jim.

現在，我們將話題轉回給吉姆。

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. Just a few closing comments.

好吧，感謝大家今天的電話會議。最後再說幾點。

We view our competitive position as very strong. We're continuing to invest to achieve our strategy of long-term profitable growth, including doubling services sales in ME&T by 2026. We expect record profits this year, the second consecutive record from an EPS perspective. And as we talked about, we continue to generate strong cash flow, which underpins our commitment to return substantially all free cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. And as Andrew talked about, if you take into account 2018 and 2019, by the end of the year, we expect to have a 9% share count reduction by the end of the year.

我們認為我們的競爭地位非常強。我們將繼續投資以實現長期獲利成長策略，包括到 2026 年使 ME&T 的服務銷售額翻倍。我們預計今年的利潤將創下歷史新高，從每股盈餘角度來看這將是連續第二次創下新高。正如我們所討論的，我們繼續產生強勁的現金流，這鞏固了我們透過回購和股息向股東返還幾乎所有自由現金的承諾。正如安德魯所說，如果考慮到 2018 年和 2019 年，到今年年底，我們預計股票數量將減少 9%。

With that, I thank you for your questions and we look forward to chatting with you next quarter.

最後，感謝您的提問，我們期待下個季度與您交流。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks, everyone, who joined us today. We appreciate your interest in Caterpillar. If you have any questions, please reach out to me or Rob Rengel in IR and e-mail him at Driscoll_Jennifer@cat.com or Rengel_Rob@cat.com.

謝謝你，吉姆，也謝謝今天加入我們的每個人。感謝您對卡特彼勒的關注。如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡我或 IR 的 Rob Rengel，並透過 Driscoll_Jennifer@cat.com 或 Rengel_Rob@cat.com 向他發送電子郵件。

And now let me ask Catherine to conclude our call.

現在，我請凱瑟琳結束我們的通話。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。