開拓重工 (CAT) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 3Q 2018 Analyst Conference. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2018 年第三季分析師大會。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人艾米坎貝爾 (Amy Campbell)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call. On the call today, I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our CFO, Andrew Bonfield; and our Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed. Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the express written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it to the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website.

謝謝你，凱特。早安，歡迎大家參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我很高興邀請到我們的執行長 Jim Umpleby；我們的財務長 Andrew Bonfield；以及我們的財務服務副總裁喬·克里德（Joe Creed）。請記住，本次通話的版權歸卡特彼勒所有，未經卡特彼勒明確書面同意，嚴禁使用、錄製或傳輸本次通話的任何部分。如果您想要今天的電話會議記錄的副本，我們會將其發佈到 caterpillar.com 網站的投資者部分。

This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information discussed. Details on the factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our filings with the SEC and our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning's presentation and in our release, which is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings.

今天上午，我們將討論前瞻性訊息，其中涉及風險、不確定性和假設，這些資訊可能會導致我們的實際結果與討論的資訊不同。有關單獨或綜合起來可能導致實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的財務報告中包含的前瞻性聲明。此外，非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天早上簡報的附錄和我們的新聞稿中找到，新聞稿發佈在 caterpillar.com/earnings 上。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給吉姆。

Thank you, Amy, and good morning. First, I'd like to introduce Andrew Bonfield, our new Chief Financial Officer. Andrew joined Caterpillar on September 1. Andrew has more than 3 decades of global financial experience. Most recently, he was Group CFO and board member of National Grid plc, a British multinational electricity and gas utility company. Prior to National Grid, Andrew was Chief Financial Officer at Cadbury plc and also served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Bristol-Myers Squibb. We're delighted to have Andrew on board. He's a welcome addition to our company and our executive office. Andrew will walk you through our financial results and -- after I provide a brief overview of our third quarter performance as well as our outlook.

謝謝你，艾米，早安。首先，我想介紹一下我們的新任財務長安德魯邦菲爾德 (Andrew Bonfield)。安德魯 (Andrew) 於 9 月 1 日加入卡特彼勒。安德魯擁有 30 多年的全球財務經驗。最近，他擔任英國跨國電力和天然氣公用事業公司 National Grid plc 的集團財務長和董事會成員。在加入國家電網之前，安德魯曾擔任吉百利公司的財務官，也曾擔任百時美施貴寶公司的執行副總裁兼財務長。我們很高興安德魯能加入我們。我們公司和行政辦公室非常歡迎他的加入。在我簡要介紹我們第三季的業績以及展望之後，安德魯將向您介紹我們的財務表現。

We had an outstanding quarter, thanks to both higher sales and excellent operational performance. Many of our end markets continue to be strong. Sales and revenue were $13.5 billion, an 18% increase over the third quarter of last year. We also earned profit per share of $2.88, which is the highest third quarter profit per share in Caterpillar's 93-year history. This is the third consecutive quarter our company has delivered record profit per share. Adjusted profit per share was $2.86, up 47% from the third quarter of 2017.

由於銷售額的成長和出色的營運業績，我們度過了一個出色的季度。我們的許多終端市場持續保持強勁。銷售和收入為 135 億美元，比去年第三季成長 18%。我們也實現了每股 2.88 美元的利潤，這是卡特彼勒 93 年歷史上第三季最高的每股利潤。這是我們公司連續第三個季度實現每股獲利創紀錄。調整後每股利潤為 2.86 美元，較 2017 年第三季成長 47%。

Third quarter operating profit was about $2.1 billion, 41% more than the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.6%. That's 260 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017 and consistent with the first half of this year despite input cost headwinds. These profit levels and margins are due to the excellent work of our global team and demonstrate that our strategy for long-term profitable growth and our discipline on structural costs are delivering measurable performance improvements.

第三季營業利潤約21億美元，較2017年第三季成長41%。本季調整後的營業利益率為16.6%。這比 2017 年第三季高出 260 個基點，儘管投入成本面臨阻力，但與今年上半年的情況一致。這些利潤水準和利潤率歸功於我們全球團隊的出色工作，並表明我們的長期獲利成長策略和結構性成本紀律正在帶來可衡量的績效改進。

We finished the quarter with $8 billion of enterprise cash. That's after paying more than $500 million in dividends, repurchasing $750 million of Caterpillar common stock and making a $1 billion discretionary pension contribution. In the first 9 months of 2018, we've returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. Our solid operational performance gives us the flexibility to invest in growth and to continue returning capital to shareholders. We intend to continue doing both in a sustained and disciplined way.

本季結束時，我們的企業現金為 80 億美元。這是在支付了 5 億多美元的股息、回購了 7.5 億美元的卡特彼勒普通股並繳納了 10 億美元的可自由支配的退休金之後取得的。2018 年前 9 個月，我們向股東返還了 34 億美元。穩健的營運績效使我們能夠靈活地投資成長並繼續向股東返還資本。我們打算繼續以持續、有紀律的方式進行這兩件事。

Using the Operating & Execution Model as our guide, we will continue to invest in areas that represent significant opportunities for profitable organic growth, especially in services and new and enhanced offerings, which are key components of our strategy. We also continue to look at nonorganic growth opportunities, but we'll do so in a disciplined way.

以營運和執行模式為指導，我們將繼續投資於那些代表著獲利性有機成長重大機會的領域，特別是服務和新產品及增強型產品，它們是我們策略的關鍵組成部分。我們也會繼續尋找非有機成長機會，但我們會以有紀律的方式進行。

Let me walk you through some examples of how we're investing for future growth. We continue to deploy more digital service offerings in autonomy and automation technology for mining. We're collaborating with a gold-mining customer in Nevada, supported by our local Cat dealer, to automate underground loaders and enable machine operators to work safely and efficiently from a control room on the surface. We're improving existing technology and accelerating deployment of new features.

讓我向您介紹一些我們如何投資未來成長的例子。我們將繼續在採礦自主化和自動化技術方面部署更多的數位服務產品。我們正在與內華達州的一家金礦開採客戶合作，並在當地 Cat 經銷商的支持下，實現地下裝載機自動化，並使機器操作員能夠在地面控制室安全高效地工作。我們正在改進現有技術並加速部署新功能。

We're also working with a mining customer in Western Australia, where we've secured a deal for the first commercial installation of a retrofit kit to enable autonomous operation of competitor mining trucks using Cat MineStar Command for hauling. With this Cat system, customers can operate different brands and sizes of trucks, both manned and autonomous, in the same space and scale up fleet size to meet the mine's needs. Our autonomous solutions are demonstrating significant productivity improvements for our customers.

我們也與西澳大利亞的一家礦業客戶合作，達成協議，首次商業安裝改裝套件，使競爭對手的採礦卡車能夠使用 Cat MineStar Command 進行自主運輸。借助 Cat 系統，客戶可以在同一空間內操作不同品牌和尺寸的載人和自動駕駛卡車，並擴大車隊規模以滿足礦場的需求。我們的自主解決方案正在為我們的客戶帶來顯著的生產力提升。

We also continue to roll out expanded product offerings to meet the diverse needs of our customers. Last month, we expanded the articulated dump truck lineup by reintroducing the 40-ton size class with a new Cat 740 GC model that incorporates proven features and performance, including new controls and systems for transmission protection, stability assist and advanced traction control and a fuel-saving eco mode. Just last week, we unveiled several new Cat mini hydraulic excavator models in the 1-to-2-ton and 7-to-10-ton size classes. These mini HEXs are part of our next-generation excavator rollout that began in 2017. We believe these new models provide the best performance, versatility, safety, operator convenience and affordability in these size classes. With these machines, we're also reaching out to a broader customer base, to local and regional contractors who may be in the market for their first yellow iron Cat machine.

我們也將繼續推出更廣泛的產品以滿足客戶的多樣化需求。上個月，我們擴大了鉸接式自卸卡車陣容，重新推出了 40 噸級的新型 Cat 740 GC 車型，該車型融合了成熟的功能和性能，包括用於變速箱保護、穩定性輔助和高級牽引力控制的新控制裝置和系統以及省油的生態模式。就在上週，我們推出了幾款新型 Cat 迷你液壓挖土機型號，重量分別為 1 至 2 噸和 7 至 10 噸。這些迷你 HEX 是我們於 2017 年開始推出的下一代挖土機的一部分。我們相信這些新車型提供了這些尺寸等級中最佳的性能、多功能性、安全性、操作便利性和可負擔性。透過這些機器，我們還可以接觸到更廣泛的客戶群，包括可能正在市場上購買第一台黃銅 Cat 機器的當地和區域承包商。

These examples of digital technology, services and expanded offerings are part of our mission to help our customers, both current and future, be more successful with Caterpillar than with any of our competitors.

這些數位技術、服務和擴展產品的例子都是我們使命的一部分，那就是幫助我們現在和未來的客戶與卡特彼勒合作比與任何競爭對手合作更成功。

Now for the outlook. Our profit per share outlook for the year is $10.65 to $11.65, and we've maintained the guidance given last quarter for adjusted profit per share in the range of $11 to $12. We expect normal seasonal patterns for sales growth in the fourth quarter and also expect to continue our strong operational performance.

現在討論一下前景。我們對今年每股利潤的預期為 10.65 美元至 11.65 美元，並且我們維持上個季度給出的調整後每股利潤在 11 美元至 12 美元範圍內的預期。我們預計第四季度銷售成長將呈現正常的季節性模式，同時也有望繼續保持強勁的營運業績。

As we discussed with you last quarter, Caterpillar participates in diverse end markets. Many of our end markets are in the early stages of recovery, while others are experiencing robust demand. We feel good about the state of our business. We continue to monitor end market fundamentals and will provide 2019 guidance in January.

正如我們上個季度與您討論的那樣，卡特彼勒參與了不同的終端市場。我們的許多終端市場正處於復甦的初期階段，而其他市場則正經歷著強勁的需求。我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意。我們將繼續監測終端市場基本面，並將於 1 月提供 2019 年的指導。

Currently, we believe favorable commodity prices, strong economic growth and the global need for infrastructure will continue to drive strong end user demand across many of our end markets. More specifically, we believe economic fundamentals, attractive oil prices and the need for oil and gas infrastructure are positive for construction industries in North America.

目前，我們相信優惠的大宗商品價格、強勁的經濟成長和全球對基礎設施的需求將繼續推動我們許多終端市場的強勁終端用戶需求。更具體地說，我們認為經濟基本面、誘人的油價以及對石油和天然氣基礎設施的需求對北美建築業有利。

For Asia Pacific, while sales for CI remain strong across the region, we continue to monitor China demand to determine the trajectory of future sales. For the remainder of 2018, we expect normal seasonal trends for China. In EAME and Latin America, we are seeing positive signs for CI in most countries, but there have been some recent areas of weakness, which we believe will be contained.

對於亞太地區，雖然 CI 的銷售在整個地區仍然保持強勁，但我們會繼續監控中國的需求，以確定未來的銷售走勢。我們預計2018年剩餘時間中國的季節性趨勢將正常。在歐洲、非洲和中東地區以及拉丁美洲，我們看到大多數國家的 CI 都出現了積極跡象，但近期也存在一些弱點，我們相信這些環節將會受到控制。

For Resource Industries, robust economic growth and infrastructure investments are driving strong demand in heavy construction applications, which we expect to continue. While our global mining customers' sales are improving, the recovery is still in the early stages, and we expect higher demand for new equipment moving forward.

對於資源產業，強勁的經濟成長和基礎設施投資正在推動對重型建築應用的強勁需求，我們預計這種需求將持續下去。雖然我們全球採礦客戶的銷售正在改善，但復甦仍處於早期階段，我們預計未來對新設備的需求將會增加。

Energy & Transportation is our most diverse segment and serves a wide variety of end markets. Current oil prices are positive for E&T. Sales in the North American compression and well service applications remain very strong. While there have been takeaway capacity issues in the Permian Basin, we are seeing increased activity across other basins and expect production in the Permian to grow after the capacity issues are addressed. Demand for new equipment for onshore and offshore drilling as well as offshore oil and gas production remained weak.

能源和運輸是我們最多元化的領域，服務於各種各樣的終端市場。目前油價對 E&T 有利。北美壓縮和井服務應用的銷售仍然強勁。雖然二疊紀盆地有外輸能力問題，但我們看到其他盆地的活動正在增加，並預計在解決能力問題後二疊紀的產量將會成長。對陸上和海上鑽井以及海上石油和天然氣生產的新設備的需求仍然疲軟。

We continue to see positive momentum in power generation. The North American rail market is also showing signs of recovery. Total carloads improved, and stored locomotives are down from a year ago. We are seeing an increase in activity for new locomotives as well as demand increases for rail services and locomotive rebuilds.

我們繼續看到發電領域的積極勢頭。北美鐵路市場也顯示出復甦的跡象。與一年前相比，車輛總裝載量有所增加，而機車存放量有所下降。我們看到新機車的活動增加，鐵路服務和機車重建的需求也增加。

In summary, we feel good about the fundamentals of many of our end markets despite the presence of geopolitical risks and global trade tensions. We're focused on a strong finish to 2018, and we'll share more about our 2019 outlook in January.

總而言之，儘管存在地緣政治風險和全球貿易緊張局勢，但我們對許多終端市場的基本面仍然感到滿意。我們致力於順利完成 2018 年，並將於 1 月分享更多有關 2019 年的展望。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

說完這些，我會把麥克風交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. First, I just wanted to say how excited I am to join Caterpillar. In particular, it's great to be here today to share such an impressive set of results with you.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。首先，我只想說我非常高興能加入卡特彼勒。特別是，我很高興今天能在這裡與大家分享如此令人印象深刻的成果。

Let's start by turning to Slide 3, and I will discuss the third quarter financial results in a bit more detail. Sales and revenues were $13.5 billion, up 18% from last year, with continued growth across all 3 of our primary segments. While many of our end markets continued to improve, North American economic strength and oil price stability drove higher levels of construction activity as well as higher demand for well servicing and gas compression equipment. In addition, Resource Industries machine sales were up significantly.

讓我們從投影片 3 開始，我將更詳細地討論第三季的財務表現。銷售額和收入為 135 億美元，比去年成長 18%，我們三個主要部門都持續成長。雖然我們的許多終端市場持續改善，但北美的經濟實力和油價穩定推動了更高水準的建築活動以及對油井服務和氣體壓縮設備的需求增加。此外，資源工業機械銷售額也大幅成長。

Third quarter profit per share of $2.88 and adjusted profit per share of $2.86 are up 63% and 47% from a year ago on higher sales, improved operational performance and disciplined resource allocation. As Jim noted, this was a record third quarter profit per share performance, and these results demonstrate that our strategy is working.

第三季每股獲利為 2.88 美元，調整後每股盈餘為 2.86 美元，較去年同期成長 63% 和 47%，得益於銷售額增加、營運績效改善和資源配置規範。正如吉姆所說，這是第三季每股利潤創紀錄的表現，這些結果表明我們的策略正在發揮作用。

If we move to Slide 4, I'll walk through what drove the 41% increase in operating profit. As you can see in the chart, higher sales volume contributed $793 million more operating profit compared to last year. Price realization was $155 million or about 1% higher than the third quarter of last year. Manufacturing costs increased by $205 million due to higher material and freight costs. In all, material costs were up about 2% on higher steel prices and the impacts of tariffs.

如果我們轉到投影片 4，我將講解推動營業利潤成長 41％ 的原因。如圖所示，與去年相比，更高的銷售量貢獻了 7.93 億美元的營業利潤。實現價格為 1.55 億美元，比去年第三季高出約 1%。由於材料和運費成本上漲，製造成本增加了 2.05 億美元。總體而言，由於鋼鐵價格上漲和關稅的影響，材料成本上漲了約2%。

Freight costs continue to be elevated due to a variety of factors, including higher rates, less efficient loads and expedited freight costs as we ramp up production to meet increased demand. Even though the midyear price increase had only a partial impact in the quarter, the drag of higher input costs and tariffs was just $50 million more than price realization. We are also continuing to look for operational efficiencies to reduce the impact further. We expect that this effort plus the benefit of the midyear price increase will further moderate the impacts of material and freight costs in the fourth quarter.

由於各種因素，包括費率上漲、載貨效率降低以及為了滿足日益增長的需求而加大產量所導致的加急貨運成本，貨運成本持續上漲。儘管年中價格上漲僅對本季產生了部分影響，但投入成本和關稅上漲造成的拖累僅比價格實現高出 5,000 萬美元。我們也持續尋求提高營運效率，以進一步減少影響。我們預計，這項努力加上年中漲價的好處將進一步緩和第四季度材料和運費成本的影響。

SG&A and R&D costs were up $77 million in the quarter. That's an increase of 5% compared to an 18% increase in sales and revenues. Jim gave a few examples of how we are investing that money to drive long-term shareholder return, but this cost discipline is a key factor in improving our operating margins.

本季銷售、一般及行政開支和研發成本增加了 7,700 萬美元。與銷售額和收入 18% 的成長相比，成長了 5%。吉姆舉了幾個例子來說明我們如何投資這些資金以實現長期股東回報，但這種成本控制是提高我們營業利潤率的關鍵因素。

Financial Products was favorable by $36 million as the core business continues to perform well with higher financing rates, a favorable impact from returned or repossessed equipment and higher average earning assets in North America and Asia Pacific. While past dues increased this year, this is largely isolated to a few customers in Latin America experiencing economic challenges and in the Cat Power Finance portfolio. Overall, we believe the portfolio remains healthy.

金融產品業務取得了 3,600 萬美元的盈利，因為核心業務繼續表現良好，融資利率上升，設備退回或收回帶來的有利影響，以及北美和亞太地區平均收益資產的增加。雖然今年逾期款項有所增加，但這主要集中在遭遇經濟挑戰的拉丁美洲和 Cat Power Finance 投資組合中的少數客戶身上。整體而言，我們認為投資組合依然健康。

The adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.6%, which is on the high end of our Investor Day range and 260 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017.

本季調整後的營業利潤率為 16.6%，處於投資者日範圍的高位，比 2017 年第三季高出 260 個基點。

Now let's look at the performance of each segment, beginning with Construction Industries on Slide 5. Sales were $5.7 billion in the third quarter, an increase of $0.8 billion or 16%. CI sales increased across all regions, except Latin America. Sales in North America were up almost $0.5 billion, and North America drove about 60% of the total third quarter sales growth. Much of this was driven by oil and gas-related projects, including pipelines, and other nonresidential construction growth.

現在讓我們來看看每個部門的表現，從幻燈片 5 上的建築業開始。第三季的銷售額為 57 億美元，增加了 8 億美元，增幅為 16%。除拉丁美洲外，所有地區的 CI 銷售額均有所成長。北美地區的銷售額成長了近 5 億美元，北美推動了第三季總銷售額成長的約 60%。其中大部分是由石油和天然氣相關項目（包括管道）和其他非住宅建築的成長所推動的。

Asia Pacific sales were up 19% or $239 million, with the most significant increase continuing to be from China. In the quarter, our dealers in China were able to restock from very low to more normal levels of inventory. We continue to expect industry sales for 10-ton-and-above excavators to be up about 40% for the full year. Since there has been some speculation about our level of sales in China, I wanted to clarify that the Construction Industries sales in China range from 10% to 15% of total segment sales, and China accounts for 5% to 10% of total company sales and revenues. Outside China, most of the countries in the Asia Pacific region had higher sales on broad economic strength.

亞太地區銷售額成長 19%，達到 2.39 億美元，其中最顯著的增幅仍來自中國。本季度，我們在中國的經銷商能夠將庫存從非常低的水平補充到更正常的水平。我們持續預計全年10噸以上挖土機產業銷量將成長40%左右。由於有人對我們在中國的銷售水平進行一些猜測，我想澄清一下，建築業在中國的銷售額佔總分部銷售額的 10% 至 15%，中國占公司總銷售額和收入的 5% 至 10%。除中國外，亞太地區大多數國家憑藉著強大的經濟實力均實現了較高的銷售額。

Overall EAME sales were up 10%, and Latin American sales were down slightly. While higher demand for infrastructure and building construction activities in both of these regions were broadly favorable, isolated economic uncertainties in Turkey, South Africa and Argentina did have a negative impact on these markets in the quarter.

歐洲、非洲和中東地區整體銷售額成長 10%，拉丁美洲銷售額略有下降。雖然這兩個地區對基礎設施和建築施工活動的需求增加總體上是有利的，但土耳其、南非和阿根廷的孤立經濟不確定性確實在本季度對這些市場產生了負面影響。

Turning to profit. CI segment profit increased by 20% over last year to $1.1 billion. Operating margin was 18.6%, which is higher than the Investor Day range as Construction Industries continues to demonstrate the power of the Operating & Execution Model to allocate resources to grow profitably and control costs.

轉變為獲利。CI部門獲利較去年同期成長20%，達到11億美元。營業利潤率為 18.6%，高於投資者日範圍，因為建築業繼續展示營運和執行模式在分配資源、實現盈利增長和控製成本方面的威力。

Let's move to Slide 6. The Resource Industries team also turned in another great quarter. RI sales were $2.6 billion, up 35% from the third quarter of 2017. Sales for new equipment increased across all regions, and demand for aftermarket parts remained strong to support overhauls and maintenance. In fact, this was the highest quarter for sales since the fourth quarter of 2013.

讓我們轉到投影片 6。資源產業團隊也度過了又一個偉大的季度。RI 銷售額為 26 億美元，較 2017 年第三季成長 35%。所有地區的新設備銷售量均有所成長，且對支援大修和維護的售後零件的需求依然強勁。事實上，這是自 2013 年第四季以來銷售額最高的一個季度。

Our mining customers are placing orders for new equipment as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. However, our customers globally continue to focus on improving the productivity and efficiency of their existing machine assets, thereby delaying full fleet replacements. In addition to the recovery in mining, strong global economic growth and infrastructure investment also contributed to higher sales for heavy construction equipment.

由於商品價格仍高於投資門檻，我們的採礦客戶正在訂購新設備。然而，我們全球的客戶繼續專注於提高其現有機器資產的生產力和效率，從而推遲了整套機器的更換。除了採礦業的復甦之外，強勁的全球經濟成長和基礎設施投資也推動了重型建築設備銷售的成長。

Segment profit of $414 million was up 81% versus third quarter of last year. Segment operating margin improved to 15.7%, at the top end of the Investor Day range of 12% to 16% and up 400 basis points from 2017. RI's improved performance and margin expansion is primarily due to higher sales, improved price realization of more than 4% and the operating leverage gained through significant restructuring and the team's disciplined cost management. These gains were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, including freight and material costs, and higher SG&A and R&D expenses to invest for profitable growth.

該部門利潤為 4.14 億美元，較去年第三季成長 81%。分部營業利益率提高至 15.7%，處於投資者日預測範圍 12% 至 16% 的最高水平，較 2017 年上升 400 個基點。RI 業績改善和利潤率擴大主要得益於銷售額增加、價格實現提高 4% 以上、透過重大重組和團隊嚴格的成本管理所獲得的營運槓桿。這些收益被更高的製造成本（包括運費和材料成本）以及為實現盈利增長而增加的銷售、一般及行政開支和研發費用部分抵消。

Now let's turn to Slide 7, where we will discuss Energy & Transportation. E&T sales in the third quarter were $5.6 billion, 15% higher than the same quarter last year, with sales increasing across all applications, except industrial. Sales into oil and gas applications were up by $297 million or 28% as we continue to see strength in onshore activity in North America, especially for gas compression and well servicing applications.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 7，討論能源與交通。第三季電子與技術銷售額為 56 億美元，比去年同期成長 15%，除工業外，所有應用領域的銷售額均有所成長。石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售額增長了 2.97 億美元，即 28%，因為我們繼續看到北美陸上活動的強勁增長，特別是在氣體壓縮和井服務應用方面。

Power generation sales increased by $204 million or 23%, driven primarily by sales of reciprocating engines to support data center and power plant applications as well as higher aftermarket parts sales. Industrial application sales were down 2% largely due to economic activity in Turkey. However, sales in North America and Asia Pacific increased slightly over the third quarter of last year. Transportation sales were up 12%. The sales growth continues to be driven by recent European and Australian rail service acquisitions and higher North American rail traffic.

發電銷售額增加了 2.04 億美元，即 23%，主要得益於支援資料中心和發電廠應用的往復式引擎的銷售以及售後零件銷售額的增加。工業應用銷售額下降 2%，主要原因是土耳其的經濟活動。不過，北美和亞太地區的銷售額較去年第三季略有成長。運輸銷售額成長了12%。銷售額的成長持續受到近期歐洲和澳洲鐵路服務收購以及北美鐵路運輸量成長的推動。

Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was $973 million, up $230 million from the third quarter of last year. The segment margin improved by 210 basis points to 17.5%, which is also at the high end of the Investor Day range. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to the higher sales volume, but this was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and increased SG&A and R&D expenses.

能源與運輸部門利潤為 9.73 億美元，較去年第三季成長 2.3 億美元。該部門利潤率提高了 210 個基點，達到 17.5%，也處於投資者日範圍的高端。E&T 的利潤成長主要歸功於銷售量的增加，但製造成本的提高以及銷售、一般及行政開支（SG&A）和研發費用的增加部分抵消了這一增長。

I want to spend a few moments discussing cash flow, which is shown on Slide 8. Our ME&T operating cash flow was about -- was $848 million for the third quarter, and we finished the quarter with $8 billion of enterprise cash on hand. Operating cash flow in the quarter was $237 million higher than last year, reflecting the higher profits but after taking into account a $1 billion discretionary pension fund contribution. This pension contribution gave rise to a favorable tax deduction and also provides cash flow flexibility for the next 3 years.

我想花一點時間討論一下幻燈片 8 上顯示的現金流。我們的 ME&T 營運現金流約為 - 第三季為 8.48 億美元，本季結束時我們手頭上的企業現金為 80 億美元。本季的經營現金流比去年同期高出 2.37 億美元，這反映了利潤的增加，但也考慮了 10 億美元的可自由支配的退休基金貢獻。這筆退休金繳款帶來了優惠的稅收減免，並為未來 3 年提供了現金流靈活性。

As Jim mentioned, we continued to return capital to shareholders, with $511 million of dividends paid and the repurchase of $750 million of Caterpillar stock in the quarter. We remain committed to investing to profitably grow our business. Our current operational performance has provided the added benefit of strong operating cash flows to a solid balance sheet. We intend to use this flexibility to both invest for growth and to continue returning capital to shareholders in a disciplined way.

正如吉姆所提到的，我們繼續向股東返還資本，本季支付了 5.11 億美元的股息併回購了價值 7.5 億美元的卡特彼勒股票。我們依然致力於投資以實現業務的獲利成長。我們目前的營運表現為穩健的資產負債表提供了強勁的營運現金流的額外好處。我們打算利用這種靈活性，既進行成長投資，又繼續以有紀律的方式向股東返還資本。

Resource allocation with long-term profitable growth will remain the highest priority. One of the many reasons I came to Caterpillar was my belief that the discipline created by the Operating & Execution Model is the right way to evaluate opportunities and lead us to drive long-term profitable growth. In addition to profitable growth, our capital allocation strategy will remain focused on sustainable dividend growth and being in the market for share repurchases on a more consistent basis. We expect share repurchases in the fourth quarter to be at least $750 million, bringing the total buyback to at least $2.75 billion for the year. As we have said in the past, we will be more opportunistic and look to go beyond that, depending on market conditions and investment priorities.

具有長期獲利成長的資源配置仍將是重中之重。我加入卡特彼勒的眾多原因之一是，我相信營運和執行模式所創立的紀律是評估機會並引領我們實現長期獲利成長的正確方法。除了獲利成長之外，我們的資本配置策略仍將專注於可持續的股息成長和更持續地進入股票回購市場。我們預計第四季的股票回購額至少為 7.5 億美元，全年總回購額至少達到 27.5 億美元。正如我們過去所說的那樣，根據市場情況和投資重點，我們將更加抓住機遇，並尋求超越這一點。

Let's move to Slide 9. Our profit per share outlook for the year is $10.65 to $11.65, and we are maintaining our second quarter guidance of $11 to $12 for adjusted profit per share. We have not updated the adjusted profit per share outlook range because nothing material has changed since we updated the outlook in July. Since our assumptions have not changed and the third quarter came in about where we expected, we believe it makes sense to maintain that outlook for the full year.

讓我們轉到第 9 張投影片。我們對今年每股利潤的預期是 10.65 美元至 11.65 美元，我們維持第二季調整後每股利潤 11 美元至 12 美元的預期。我們尚未更新調整後的每股盈餘預期範圍，因為自 7 月更新預期以來，沒有任何重大變化。由於我們的假設沒有改變，且第三季的表現與我們的預期大致相同，因此我們認為維持全年的這一預期是合理的。

Order rates and the backlog remain healthy, with the backlog up almost $2 billion from the third quarter of 2017. Construction Industries remains on managed distribution, and production rates for large machines and large engines continue to increase with demand. We believe the increase in dealer inventory in the quarter reflects current end user demand and, in some regions and in some products, was necessary to improve availability to the end customer. As measured by months of sales, dealer inventory ended the quarter at the low end of historical averages. So in short, we feel good about the state of our business.

訂單率和積壓訂單仍然保持健康，積壓訂單量比 2017 年第三季增加了近 20 億美元。建築業仍然採用管理分銷，大型機械和大型引擎的生產率隨著需求的增加。我們認為，本季經銷商庫存的增加反映了當前的終端用戶需求，並且在某些地區和某些產品中，有必要提高終端客戶的供應量。以銷售月數來衡量，經銷商庫存在本季末處於歷史平均水準的低端。簡而言之，我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意。

And with that, I will turn it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

說完這些，我會把話題轉回給艾米，開始電話會議的問答部分。

Thank you, Andrew. Kate, it is now time to begin the Q&A portion of the call. (Operator Instructions) .

謝謝你，安德魯。凱特，現在是開始通話的問答部分。（操作員指令）。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Joe O'Dea.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O'Dea)。

It's Vertical Research. First question. Jim, your comments across end markets were pretty constructive and encouraging. And I think we see kind of a disconnect in where we're seeing a stock reaction to what seems like kind of an outlook right now that would continue to support further growth moving forward. I guess one question just on backlog and seeing that nudge down a little bit sequentially. Any commentary across segments and whether or not some of this is lead time-related, some of this is just general macro uncertainty, but seeing a slight softening there versus what sounds like otherwise pretty strong end market conditions?

這是垂直研究。第一個問題。吉姆，你對終端市場的評論非常有建設性和令人鼓舞。我認為我們看到了某種脫節，我們看到股票對目前看似將繼續支持未來進一步成長的前景做出反應。我想有一個問題只是關於積壓問題，並且看到這個問題按順序稍微下降了一點。有沒有對各個部分的評論，其中是否有些與交貨時間有關，有些只是一般的宏觀不確定性，但與聽起來相當強勁的終端市場條件相比，那裡出現了輕微的疲軟？

Maybe it makes sense just to spend a few minutes expanding upon how we're doing in each of the markets. We talked about Construction Industries and that we continue to see very strong demand in Asia Pacific, particularly in China, but also in North America and EAME. Again, in Energy & Transportation, very strong activity in onshore gas compression, well servicing. Industrial is also strong. We don't see -- we haven't experienced a slowdown. Much have been written about the Permian, but we have not experienced a slowdown in our business. It's still going quite strong. And people have talked a lot about the fact that there are takeaway capacity issues. And of course, whenever pipelines are built, that's a good thing for our CI business as well. So again, we feel bullish about that business. Heavy construction in Resource Industries continues to be strong. In rail, we've seen an increase in locomotive rebuilds and modernization. We've also seen higher service and parts sales. Rail traffic in North America certainly increased, and we've seen a year-over-year reduction in the number of idle locomotives and railcars. So we expect new locomotive orders to continue to improve. We've seen some business from outside the U.S. as well. We have talked about the fact that Latin America is a bit slow to recover in Construction Industries, and offshore oil and gas production has been slow. But again, we feel good about the state of our business. We feel that the business continues to be strong in most of our end markets. And we're not, frankly, concerned about dealer inventories or backlog, and I want Andrew to comment on that.

也許花幾分鐘來詳細說明我們在每個市場的表現是有意義的。我們討論了建築業，我們繼續看到亞太地區，特別是中國，以及北美和歐洲、非洲和中東地區對建築業的需求非常強勁。同樣，在能源和運輸領域，陸上天然氣壓縮和油井服務的活動非常活躍。工業也很強。我們沒有看到——我們沒有經歷過經濟放緩。關於二疊紀的文章已經很多，但我們的業務並未放緩。現在它仍舊十分強勁。人們已經多次討論外帶容量問題。當然，無論何時建造管道，這對我們的 CI 業務來說也是一件好事。因此，我們再次對該業務充滿信心。資源產業的重型建築工程持續保持強勁勢頭。在鐵路方面，我們看到機車重建和現代化的增加。我們也看到了服務和零件銷售額的提高。北美的鐵路運輸量確實增加了，而且我們看到閒置的機車和火車車廂的數量逐年減少。因此我們預計新機車訂單將繼續改善。我們也看到了一些來自美國以外的業務。我們討論拉丁美洲建築業復甦有點慢，海上石油和天然氣生產也進展緩慢的事實。但我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意。我們認為，我們的業務在大多數終端市場持續保持強勁。坦白說，我們並不擔心經銷商的庫存或積壓訂單，我希望安德魯對此發表評論。

Yes. So -- I mean, obviously, we did see the backlog go down by about $400 million in the quarter. But remind you that for the year-to-date, it is still up nearly $2 billion since the third quarter of last year. At the same time, obviously, we were building inventory into dealers. We still are at the bottom end of normal ranges, so -- even though the dealer inventory has gone up over $2 billion since the beginning of the year. So that's all indicative of dealers having confidence. And obviously, the $800 million stock build or inventory build in the quarter was a lot less than the drop in order backlog. So that does mean that strong demand -- overall, dealers are still sitting positive about end consumption.

是的。所以 — — 我的意思是，顯然，我們確實看到本季積壓訂單減少了約 4 億美元。但請注意，今年迄今為止，自去年第三季以來，這一數字仍增加了近 20 億美元。同時，顯然我們正在向經銷商建立庫存。我們仍然處於正常範圍的底端，因此——儘管自今年年初以來經銷商庫存已經增加了 20 多億美元。這一切都顯示經銷商有信心。顯然，本季 8 億美元的庫存增加量遠低於訂單積壓量的下降量。所以這確實意味著強勁的需求——總體而言，經銷商仍然對終端消費持樂觀態度。

Appreciate those details. And then just a follow-up related to price/cost and general outlook for price/cost moving forward, whether or not price/cost should actually shift more favorably moving forward, looking at pricing announcements next year into dealers, material costs stabilizing and whether we see any kind of improvement on some of the constraints with supply chain and materials and whether all that translates to a little bit more favorable price/cost situation moving into the end of year and then into next year.

感謝這些細節。然後只是與價格/成本以及未來價格/成本總體前景相關的後續問題，價格/成本是否應該在未來真正變得更加有利，期待明年經銷商的定價公告，材料成本是否穩定，以及我們是否看到供應鏈和材料的某些限制有所改善，以及所有這些是否意味著在年底和明年出現更加有利的價格/成本形勢。

Yes. On pricing, we are starting to see the impact of the midyear price increase, and we expect price realization to more than offset material cost and freight expense for the full year. We recently communicated to our dealers a 1% to 4% price increase that will be effective in January of '19. We are working our way through supply constraints. And again, we feel good about the environment for pricing, as I mentioned, moving forward.

是的。在定價方面，我們開始看到年中價格上漲的影響，我們預計價格實現將超過全年的材料成本和運費費用。我們最近通知了我們的經銷商，價格將上漲 1% 至 4%，並將於 2019 年 1 月生效。我們正在努力解決供應限制問題。正如我之前提到的，我們對未來的定價環境感到滿意。

Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi.

我們今天的下一個問題來自羅斯·吉拉迪。

Bank of America. Jim, how do we think about the retail numbers that came out last night? I mean, you were up 21% in September, but your comp, I think, goes from being up 13% in September to up 34% by the end of the year in December. So as you exit 2018, are we looking at low to mid-single retail -- low to mid-single-digit retail sales growth? And is that what's implied at the midpoint of your guide?

美國銀行。吉姆，我們如何看待昨晚公佈的零售數據？我的意思是，9 月你的股價上漲了 21%，但我認為，到 12 月底，你的股價將從 9 月的 13% 上漲到 34%。那麼，在 2018 年即將結束時，我們是否會看到低到中等個位數的零售額成長？這就是您的指南中間部分所暗示的內容嗎？

I'm not going to make a comment and give you a forecast for retail stats. But I've talked about the end state of our markets and the fact that we feel good about those. Based on everything we see today, we expect our business to continue to improve in 2019.

我不會發表評論或對零售統計數據做出預測。但我已經談論了我們市場的最終狀態以及我們對此感覺良好的事實。根據我們今天看到的一切，我們預計我們的業務將在 2019 年繼續改善。

Okay. What's the feedback you're getting from the miners on some of the elevated uncertainty in China? I mean, are there any RFPs out there that have been put on the back burner until things settle down with the trade situation? And what are you seeing on large mining equipment demand from non-China emerging markets as well?

好的。對於中國不確定性加劇的問題，您從礦工那裡得到了什麼回饋？我的意思是，是否有任何 RFP 被擱置，直到貿易局勢平息下來？您認為中國以外的新興市場對大型採礦設備的需求如何？

Again, as I mentioned earlier, the Resource Industries business continues to improve. Truck levels are now at the lowest level they've been since 2012. There are still more trucks to bring back online, but it's contributing to strong aftermarket demand. And we're seeing strong parts demand to support increases in machine utilization. So we certainly feel good about the trajectory of our mining business. Commodities such as copper and gold have been strong. RI has experienced growth across all regions. So again, we do feel good about RI. Market fundamentals seem to be improving and are quite solid.

再次，正如我之前提到的，資源產業業務持續改善。目前卡車數量處於2012年以來的最低水準。仍有更多卡車需要恢復生產，但這將推動售後市場的強勁需求。我們看到，為支援機器利用率的提高，零件需求強勁。因此，我們對我們的採礦業務的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。銅、黃金等大宗商品表現強勁。RI 在所有地區都經歷了成長。所以，我們確實對 RI 感覺很好。市場基本面似乎正在改善且相當穩固。

Our next question today is coming from Steven Fisher.

今天的下一個問題來自史蒂文·費雪。

It's UBS. I know on China, you said you expect the normal seasonal pattern for the rest of 2018, but really curious how you're thinking about China in 2019. It seems like we're heading back in infrastructure stimulus mode there. So do you see any evidence of that having a positive impact on sales or quoting it? And does what they have announced so far in this regard sound meaningful enough to support ongoing growth in the construction equipment business there for you?

這是瑞銀。我知道，關於中國，您說預計 2018 年剩餘時間的季節性模式將正常，但我真的很好奇您對 2019 年中國的情況有何看法。看起來我們正在回到基礎設施刺激模式。那麼，您是否看到任何證據表明這對銷售產生了積極影響或引用了它？他們迄今為止在這方面宣布的舉措是否足以支持當地建築設備業務的持續成長？

Just a few general comments about China. Certainly, it's an important market for us. It averages 5% to 10% of total company sales and revenues. And for CI, it's about 10% to 15%. There's a lot of different scenarios, of course, forecasting what's going to happen in China. Based on everything that we see, we believe that the China market will continue to be healthy. Excavator demand is up significantly this year after it more than doubled last year. And again, we feel good about China for next year.

僅就中國提出一些一般性評論。當然，這對我們來說是一個重要的市場。其平均占公司總銷售額和收入的5%到10%。對於 CI，這一比例約為 10% 到 15%。當然，有很多不同的情景可以預測中國會發生什麼事。基於我們所看到的一切，我們相信中國市場將繼續保持健康。繼去年成長一倍以上之後，今年挖土機的需求又大幅成長。我們再次對明年在中國的表現充滿信心。

Okay. And in terms of the resource business, how should we think about the margin trajectory there going forward as the original equipment sales continue to pick up? I mean, you didn't really call out the margin mix on the margin result this quarter, which came in a little bit lower than our expectation. So has that mix shift even noticeably started yet? And if it does, can that be offset by any more advantageous price versus cost?

好的。就資源業務而言，隨著原始設備銷售持續回暖，我們該如何看待未來的利潤率趨勢？我的意思是，您並沒有真正指出本季的利潤率組合，該利潤率略低於我們的預期。那麼，這種混合轉變是否已經開始明顯了呢？如果確實如此，那麼可以透過更有利的價格與成本來抵銷這項影響嗎？

Yes, I'd urge to caution both in -- particularly in RI and in E&T, in looking at quarter-to-quarter margins. Both of those businesses tend to be very lumpy, so we expect quarter-to-quarter variations in margins up and down. And so what we really suggest you look at is our year-to-year improvement, which is what we're really focused on doing. We talked about our targets for margin expectations at Investor Day, and we're towards the top end of those or above those. So again, we feel good about that as well.

是的，我敦促大家在查看季度利潤率時要謹慎，特別是在 RI 和 E&T 方面。這兩項業務的波動性都很大，因此我們預期利潤率的季度變化幅度會有所上升和下降。因此，我們真正建議您關注的是我們逐年的進步，這也是我們真正關注的事情。我們在投資者日討論了我們的保證金預期目標，目前我們的保證金預期已接近或超過了該目標的最高限度。因此，我們對此也感到很高興。

But have you seen that impact yet -- start yet on the mix shift between OE and aftermarket? Or is that still mostly ahead of us?

但是，您是否已經看到這種影響了——OE 和售後市場之間的混合轉變已經開始了嗎？或者說這在很大程度上仍是我們未來要面對的？

I would say that in terms of new equipment, we expect that to improve moving forward. So we are certain to see activity for new equipment, and we expect that to continue to improve. And if you step back and think about where we've been from a historical perspective, we are still below averages. Not much as comparing to the peak, but we have a long way to go to improve on OE for mining.

我想說，就新設備而言，我們預計未來將會有所改善。因此，我們肯定會看到新設備的活動，我們預計這種情況會繼續改善。如果你回顧一下，從歷史的角度思考我們曾經走過的路，我們仍然低於平均值。與巔峰時期相比並不算多，但我們在改進採礦 OE 方面還有很長的路要走。

Okay. So the margin mix might change, but you're going to still see bigger dollars ahead, it sounds like.

好的。因此，利潤率組合可能會發生變化，但聽起來，未來你仍會看到更多的收益。

Yes. And one of the things also, keep in mind, is for next year, we have -- we're going to have a STIP tailwind that's going to have a positive impact in all of our segments as we reset STIP for next year. That's also out there as well. It's another tailwind to keep in mind.

是的。另外，請記住，明年我們將迎來 STIP 順風，隨著我們為明年重新設定 STIP，這將對我們所有的細分市場產生積極影響。這也在那裡。這是另一個需要牢記的順風。

Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook.

今天的下一個問題來自傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)。

And Andrew, welcome to the fun world of industrials. I guess 2 questions. One, Andrew, for you specifically. Can you just talk about sort of what your top priorities are as CFO of Caterpillar and, while Cat's answered some questions on short of share repurchase, how you guys are thinking about being more opportunistic on share repurchase given where your stock price is today and, perhaps, the market's view of what's going on with the macro versus yours and your ability to earn a higher-trough EPS? And then my second question, Amy, or I'll try -- you guys sound fairly constructive as we think about '19 and in terms of volume without specifically stating a number. But are there any material positives or negatives we should think about, whether it's stock comp, repo, restructuring benefits, dealer inventories, as we think about '19 versus '18?

安德魯，歡迎來到有趣的工業世界。我猜有 2 個問題。安德魯，這是專門為你準備的。您能否談談身為卡特彼勒的財務官，您的首要任務是什麼？卡特彼勒回答了一些有關股票回購的問題，考慮到您今天的股價，以及市場對宏觀經濟形勢的看法，以及您獲得更高每股收益的能力，你們如何考慮在股票回購方面採取更多機會主義的做法？然後是我的第二個問題，艾米，或者我會嘗試 - 當我們考慮'19時，你們聽起來相當有建設性，並且在數量方面沒有具體說明數字。但是，當我們思考2019年與2018年時，是否應該考慮任何實質的利多或利空因素，無論是股票補償、回購、重組收益或經銷商庫存？

Yes. So thanks, Jamie, and yes, it's great to be here. And yes, it is always exciting to see such a good set of results be put out in front of you guys today. Priorities, I think you shouldn't be surprised. Obviously, the things about making sure that we execute the O&E Model particularly well as we move forward. Resource allocation, in particular, obviously needs to be something we keep a focus on to make sure we drive that profitable growth that we're trying to target and achieve, so working with Jim and the other members of the executive office to do that. Obviously, again, you mentioned about capital allocation. That is something which, again, obviously, I know a lot of investors have a lot of focus on. Obviously, we have the $10 billion buyback approved by the board. That will obviously be a key focus as we move forward. Obviously, we need to think through how we manage the balance sheet through the cycle. That's something which I will work on and look to as we move forward. But obviously, as we've said and we indicated again, we will be opportunistic and go above the $750 million, obviously, at times where we think the share price is below intrinsic value, which is what it is at the moment.

是的。所以謝謝你，傑米，是的，很高興來到這裡。是的，今天看到這麼好的成果呈現在你們面前總是令人興奮的。優先事項，我想你不應該感到驚訝。顯然，我們要確保在前進的過程中很好地執行 O＆E 模型。顯然，我們需要特別關注資源分配，以確保推動我們想要實現的獲利成長，因此我們需要與吉姆和其他執行辦公室成員合作來做到這一點。顯然，您再次提到了資本配置。顯然，我知道這是很多投資人非常關注的事情。顯然，我們已經獲得董事會批准的 100 億美元回購計畫。這顯然將成為我們今後關注的重點。顯然，我們需要仔細思考如何在整個週期中管理資產負債表。這是我今後將努力並期待的事情。但顯然，正如我們所說並再次指出的那樣，我們將抓住機會，將收購價格提高到 7.5 億美元以上，顯然，在我們認為股價低於內在價值的時候，就像現在的情況一樣。

And I'll jump in, Jamie, and take on the question you had for Amy. So on '19, obviously, it's too early for us to provide a lot of specifics. As I mentioned earlier, we expect our business to continue to improve in '19 versus '18. There's a lot of puts and takes, where we take price realization along with the reset of STIP and continued cost discipline to offset cost headwinds. And we have a healthy backlog, good order rates, and we're taking orders for some products well into 2019. We feel good about the state of our business, and frankly, we expect both the top and the bottom line to improve in 2019 versus 2018.

傑米，我來回答你向艾米提出的問題。因此，對於 2019 年而言，顯然現在提供許多具體資訊還為時過早。正如我之前提到的，我們預計2019年我們的業務將比2018年繼續改善。有很多的得失，我們透過價格實現以及 STIP 的重置和持續的成本約束來抵消成本阻力。我們的積壓訂單量充足，訂單率也不錯，部分產品的訂單將持續到 2019 年。我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意，坦白說，我們預計 2019 年的營收和淨利潤都將比 2018 年有所改善。

Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan.

今天的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan。

JPMorgan. My question is around dealer inventories. I know you said we're at the low end of months of supply or -- based on historical metrics. But historical metrics may not be the right way to look at dealer inventories for Caterpillar because in prior cycles, dealers double ordered and ordered just in case, and then we were delaying strategy, et cetera, et cetera. So Jim, how do you reassure investors that this cycle is different, that your dealers are not double ordering or ordering ahead of price increases or ordering because just in case?

摩根大通。我的問題與經銷商庫存有關。我知道您說過，根據歷史指標，我們的供應量處於低點。但歷史指標可能不是查看卡特彼勒經銷商庫存的正確方式，因為在之前的周期中，經銷商為了以防萬一會加倍訂購，然後我們推遲了戰略等等。那麼吉姆，你如何向投資者保證，這個週期是不同的，你的經銷商不會重複訂貨，也不會在價格上漲之前訂貨，或者為了以防萬一而訂貨？

Yes. We've worked very hard over the last couple of years on getting more lean internally and also have looked at our supply chain. Obviously, our dealers are independent businesses, so they make their own decisions as to what they do. But we do feel, based on the strength of the markets, that we don't have an issue in terms of dealer inventory. I'll let Andrew jump in here as well.

是的。過去幾年來，我們一直努力實現內部精實化，同時也專注於我們的供應鏈。顯然，我們的經銷商都是獨立企業，因此他們可以自行決定要做什麼。但我們確實認為，基於市場的實力，經銷商庫存方面不存在問題。我也會讓安德魯加入進來。

Yes. And just to, yes, give you a comment, I mean, I'm actually really impressed by the amount of data that the company actually does have on dealer inventory. You might want to go back to look at my background at Bristol-Myers and why I would be very focused on that because that was the wholesalers in that particular point in time. But I do think, a, first of all, the visibility is important. Actually, in absolute dollar terms, it's -- things look relatively low versus other parts in the cycle, and it is something that is very well monitored, so I think -- as best as it can be, as Jim said, because, obviously, the dealers are independent. But it does give us confidence that there isn't any excess inventory build. In fact, actually, what's happened in the last 3 months is as we've ramped up production effectively, we are now getting into a situation where dealers actually have enough inventory that they are able to sell-through. So that's an important part of what we've been doing.

是的。是的，我只是想給你一個評論，我的意思是，我對該公司實際擁有的經銷商庫存數據量感到非常印象深刻。您可能想回顧一下我在百時美施貴寶的背景，以及為什麼我會如此關注這一點，因為那是當時的批發商。但我確實認為，首先，可見性很重要。實際上，以絕對美元計算，與週期中的其他部分相比，它看起來相對較低，並且它受到了很好的監控，所以我認為，正如吉姆所說的那樣，這是最好的，因為顯然經銷商是獨立的。但它確實讓我們相信，不存在任何過剩庫存。事實上，過去 3 個月的情況是，隨著我們有效地提高產量，我們現在面臨的情況是，經銷商實際上有足夠的庫存，可以出售。這是我們一直在做的重要部分。

And much of CI still is on managed distribution, as you probably know, and much of the CI increase, restocking in China, for example, is off of very low levels. So again, we feel comfortable with what we see.

您可能知道，大部分 CI 仍然處於管理分銷狀態，而且大部分 CI 成長（例如，中國的補貨）都是從非常低的水平開始的。因此，我們對所看到的結果感到滿意。

Good. That's helpful. And then is there any color you could give us as we look at Europe and the Middle East? How much of that region is Middle East? And any changes that you're seeing due to political unrest in the Middle East that's currently going on? Is that -- anything we should be concerned about going into 2019?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼當我們看歐洲和中東時，您能給我們什麼背景資訊嗎？該地區有多少屬於中東？目前中東地區的政治動盪是否帶來了任何改變？這是我們在進入 2019 年時應該擔心的事情嗎？

At this stage, I mean, the bit where we did see some impact in the Middle East area is really around Turkey. And that was -- obviously, they've had a fair amount of economic uncertainty. Elsewhere, actually, through rest of Europe and most of rest of the Middle East, actually, things were pretty much okay. So it's really, really been Turkey that's been the big driver of uncertainty around that region.

我的意思是，現階段我們確實看到中東地區受到一些影響，這些影響主要是在土耳其周圍。顯然，他們面臨相當大的經濟不確定性。事實上，在其他地方，包括歐洲其他地區和中東大部分地區，情況都還好。所以，土耳其實際上是該地區不確定性的最大驅動因素。

Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey.

我們今天的下一個問題來自安德魯凱西 (Andrew Casey)。

Wells Fargo Securities. If I could go back to Ann's last question there in EAME, did you see any moderation in any of the EU countries? And then separately, can you explain why you think the weakness, and it sounds like it may just be Turkey, why do you think that will be contained?

富國證券。如果我可以回到安在 EAME 上提出的最後一個問題，您是否看到任何歐盟國家出現了任何緩和現象？然後另外，您能否解釋為什麼您認為這種弱點是存在的，聽起來可能只是土耳其的問題，為什麼您認為這種弱點會受到遏制？

Well, firstly, I mean, obviously, the -- Turkey has been, obviously, going through a fair amount of economic uncertainty. Obviously, with U.S. sanctions as well being applied, that has had some impact on the broader economy in Turkey. I think we saw it -- hopefully, see that moderate now as we move forward and hopefully start seeing Turkey recover. Around rest of Europe, if you look around rest -- I mean, U.K. sales were sort of flattish in the quarter as would be expected with uncertainty there. But Jim really -- actually, the rest of EAME actually was pretty good, and Europe was actually pretty strong as well.

嗯，首先，我的意思是，顯然，土耳其一直經歷著相當大的經濟不確定性。顯然，美國的製裁也對土耳其的整體經濟產生了一定的影響。我想我們已經看到了這一點——希望隨著我們繼續前進，現在能看到這種緩和，並希望看到土耳其開始復甦。環顧歐洲其他地區，如果你看看其他地區——我的意思是，英國的銷售額在本季度比較平穩，這是預料之中的，因為那裡存在不確定性。但 Jim 說，事實上，歐洲、非洲和中東地區的其他地區其實都相當不錯，歐洲其實也相當強大。

Okay. And then I just wanted to confirm something. So we've had several quarters where construction remains on managed distribution. Can you comment on whether the constraints you may be still encountering are part of Cat's internal suppliers? Or is it mainly external? And really, what I'm trying to get to is if there's any change in past comments about CapEx remaining beneath depreciation.

好的。然後我只是想確認一些事情。因此，我們已經有幾個季度在管理分銷方面進行建設。您能否評論一下您可能仍然遇到的限制是否是 Cat 內部供應商的一部分？還是主要是外部的？實際上，我想知道的是，關於資本支出低於折舊水準的過去評論是否有任何變化。

Andy, there is no change. And so Construction Industries has plenty of bricks-and-mortar capacity to meet demand, and the issue has been with suppliers. And I'm sure you know it isn't just Cat and our competitors, but manufacturers in many different industries have struggled with just the general increase in economic activity and what that's driven in terms of demand. So no, it's not internal, and you shouldn't take anything away from a capital investment perspective based on that.

安迪，沒有變化。因此，建築業擁有足夠的實體產能來滿足需求，問題就出在供應商身上。而且我確信您知道，不僅僅是 Cat 和我們的競爭對手，而且許多不同行業的製造商都在努力應對經濟活動的整體成長及其所推動的需求。所以，這不是內部的，你不應該基於此從資本投資的角度否定任何東西。

Our next question today is coming from David Raso.

今天的下一個問題來自 David Raso。

Evercore ISI. Basically, I'm just trying to figure out the confident comments that you seem to be having about 2019 that you've made. I'm trying to understand why we still have $1 EPS range in the fourth quarter. I'm just trying to understand. You obviously seemed fairly comfortable in your production schedules moving forward. And if I heard you correctly, it seems like the fourth quarter sequential versus third quarter, you would expect some normal seasonal patterns in your sales. So I guess maybe first, if you can confirm that. Because the dollar range in the fourth quarter, I appreciate the comment, nothing's changed since our prior review, so we just figure we maintain it. But it does, at least, raise the question. Your confidence in '19 to leave $1 range for the fourth quarter is interesting. So I guess, first, can you confirm that you expect normal sequential sales patterns, third to fourth? And then...

Evercore ISI。基本上，我只是想弄清楚你對 2019 年似乎的自信評論。我試圖理解為什麼我們的第四季每股收益仍為 1 美元。我只是想了解一下。您顯然對未來的生產計劃感到相當滿意。如果我沒聽錯的話，與第三季相比，第四季的銷售似乎會出現一些正常的季節性模式。因此我想也許是首先，如果您能確認這一點的話。因為第四季度的美元範圍，我很欣賞這個評論，自上次審查以來沒有任何變化，所以我們只是認為我們會維持它。但它至少提出了一個問題。您對 19 年第四季保持 1 美元區間的信心很有趣。所以我想，首先，您能否確認，您預計第三到第四季的銷售模式將保持正常？進而...

So David, let me be as clear as I can be. Obviously, yes, we do expect normal seasonal sales sequential patterns in the fourth quarter. If you look at our margin structure for the year, year-to-date, it's 16.6%. In the third quarter, it was 16.6%. We expect margins to be broadly similar as well. So that is very much in line with where we've been expecting. And on the range, I think changing the range would have sent some sort of message about something had changed since July. We were very clear in our thought process, but we actually just wanted to be very clear to you all and say nothing's changed. Our expectations of our outlook have not changed, and so we just wanted to reflect that through the guidance. Yes, it is a wide range, yes, but nothing really much has changed since where we were in July. So narrowing it may have created some noise either at the bottom end or the top end, so we just thought it'd be better to leave it as is and explain it on the call today.

所以大衛，讓我盡可能清楚地說清楚。顯然，是的，我們確實預期第四季的季節性銷售連續模式正常。如果你看看我們今年的利潤結構，年初至今的利潤率為 16.6%。第三季這一比例為16.6%。我們預計利潤率也大致相同。這與我們的預期非常一致。關於射程，我認為改變射程會傳達某種訊息，表明自 7 月以來某些事情已經發生了變化。我們的思考過程非常清晰，但其實我們只是想讓大家清楚，什麼都沒有改變。我們對前景的預期沒有改變，因此我們只是希望透過指引來反映這一點。是的，範圍很廣，但是自七月以來，實際上並沒有發生太大的變化。因此，縮小範圍可能會在底端或頂端產生一些噪音，因此我們認為最好保持原樣，並在今天的電話會議上進行解釋。

No, I appreciate that. I'm just trying to think of a launching pad into '19 because if your sales are up their normal 6% to 7% sequentially third to fourth and the margins are the same, that means the fourth quarter EPS is above third quarter. And your guidance implies it's not. So I'm just trying to understand. You sound comfortable. It's just the numbers don't fully back it up. And you're just saying you're still within the range. It might be the high end of the range, but you decided to just keep it as a wide range.

不，我很感激。我只是試著思考一下 2019 年的起點，因為如果您的銷售額比第三季和第四季分別成長 6% 到 7%，並且利潤率相同，那就意味著第四季度的每股收益高於第三季。而您的指導暗示事實並非如此。所以我只是想了解一下。你聽起來很舒服。只是數字並不能完全支持這一點。你只是說你仍在範圍內。它可能是範圍的高端，但您決定將其保持為較寬的範圍。

Yes. I mean, we -- yes. If you do the math as you've done it, then you would see the quarters being up. I think that our view is the range is wide. Yes, we don't expect to be at the bottom end of the range. So I think that's -- and based on what we're expecting, we expect the normal sales pattern and operating margins to be broadly in line with where they've been all year.

是的。我的意思是，我們——是的。如果您像剛才那樣進行計算，那麼您會看到季度數字正在上升。我認為我們的觀點範圍很廣。是的，我們不希望處於該範圍的底端。所以我認為——根據我們的預期，我們預計正常的銷售模式和營業利潤率將與全年的水平大致一致。

And lastly, on the price increases announced to start 2019, the impact of those, can you just help us a little bit? I mean, if there -- it seemed to be they're not price-protected shipments. So I'm trying to get a sense of the price/cost as we start 2019. Can you help us a little bit with that on the timing of the cost versus the timing of the price as we start '19 for a run rate?

最後，關於 2019 年初宣布的價格上漲及其影響，您能否為我們提供一點幫助？我的意思是，如果有——似乎它們不是受價格保護的貨物。因此，我想了解 2019 年伊始的價格/成本。當我們開始確定 19 年的運行率時，您能否就成本時間與價格時間的關係提供一些幫助？

Yes. I mean, I think we are -- obviously, we did get quite a long lead time partly so that we can actually put it into effect. We expect a significant proportion, a majority of that portion to stick, obviously, into 2019. But obviously, when we're doing a sort of initial guidance for next year, we're taking into account that not all of that will be fully realized in the 2019 time frame. So we'll give you a bit more of an update and a bit more color then. And also, don't forget, we will have the full year benefit of the midyear price increase in 2019 as well.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們——顯然，我們確實獲得了相當長的準備時間，部分原因是我們能夠真正將其付諸實施。我們預計，其中很大一部分，尤其是絕大部分，顯然會延續到 2019 年。但顯然，當我們為明年制定初步指導時，我們考慮到並非所有目標都會在 2019 年內完全實現。因此我們將為您提供更多更新和詳細資訊。另外，別忘了，我們還將享受 2019 年中價格上漲的全年收益。

Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich.

今天的下一個問題來自傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。

It's Goldman Sachs. Can you talk about the M&A pipeline and the relative attractiveness of M&A versus buyback to you folks at this point? You mentioned stocks below the intrinsic value, but how does that stack up versus your M&A options? And as you folks look at the balance sheet today, the cleanest it's been in over 30 years, what do you think is the right level of leverage for this business longer term?

這是高盛。您能談談目前的併購管道以及併購與回購的相對吸引力嗎？您提到股價低於內在價值，但這與您的併購選擇相比如何？那麼，當你們看到今天的資產負債表時，會發現這是 30 多年來最乾淨的，你們認為長期來看，這項業務的適當槓桿水平是多少？

Yes. This is Jim, and I'll start it off and let Andrew jump in at the end if he would like. But you mentioned M&A and buyback. So the other thing we can also do is invest in organic growth, which we are very much doing. So all of our businesses continuously evaluate M&A opportunities. We're continuing to do that. We're not excluding anything. We're not saying that there's a definitive plan for a big M&A either. We are very focused on organic growth, particularly in areas of services and digital. We're increasing our capability there. And I'll let Andrew take the buyback question.

是的。我是吉姆，我先開始，如果安德魯願意的話，最後再讓他加入。但您提到了併購和回購。因此，我們還可以做的另一件事就是投資有機成長，我們正在積極地這樣做。因此，我們所有的業務都會不斷評估併購機會。我們會繼續這樣做。我們不會排除任何東西。我們並不是說我們已經有一個大型併購的明確計畫。我們非常注重有機成長，特別是在服務和數位領域。我們正在增強那裡的能力。我讓安德魯來回答回購問題。

Yes. Jerry, on the sort of what's the right level of leverage. I'm 7 weeks in, so I think if you would excuse me just patching that out for a little bit longer because, actually, it's one of the things I want to work through and work through how do we think about this through the cycle, which is what we do have to do. We do want to maintain the Mid-A rating through the cycle, so we have to think through that and how that capital allocation works. Obviously, at the moment, we do have more cash than we inherently need. So therefore, we are, as you've seen, accelerating the buyback program. And that is, obviously, the key at the moment.

是的。傑瑞，關於槓桿率的正確程度是什麼。我已經 7 週了，所以我想如果你能原諒我再修復這個問題一段時間的話，因為實際上，這是我想解決的問題之一，並且要解決我們如何在整個週期內考慮這個問題，這也是我們必須要做的。我們確實希望在整個週期中保持中 A 評級，因此我們必須仔細考慮這一點以及資本配置如何運作。顯然，目前我們的現金確實超過了我們本身所需的數量。因此，正如您所看到的，我們正在加速回購計劃。顯然，這是當前的關鍵。

Okay. And you folks gave us good color on new dealer inventories of new equipment. Can you just talk about what you're seeing on the used equipment side? I guess we're seeing used inventories inching up in North America construction equipment. Are you seeing that as well? Can you just talk about your comfort level on the used side?

好的。你們為我們提供了有關新經銷商新設備庫存的良好資訊。您能談談您在二手設備方面看到的情況嗎？我想我們看到北美建築設備的二手庫存正在緩慢增加。您也看到這個了嗎？能談談使用上的舒適度嗎？

Yes, Jerry. I think if you looked at used equipment, the inventories are quite tight, and we're seeing increases in used equipment prices continue.

是的，傑瑞。我認為如果你看一下二手設備，庫存就相當緊張，而且我們看到二手設備價格持續上漲。

Any color by region, Amy?

艾米，有按地區劃分的顏色嗎？

I don't have any specific color by region. It's certainly the case in North America, where I have most of that data.

我沒有按地區劃分任何特定顏色。北美的情況確實如此，我在那裡擁有大部分數據。

Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann.

今天的下一個問題來自史蒂芬‧福爾克曼 (Stephen Volkmann)。

It's Jefferies. Just a couple quick follow-ups. Just back to the resource, if we actually do sell more equipment next year than parts, can you still have up margin?

是杰弗里斯。只需快速跟進幾件事。回到資源問題，如果我們明年的設備銷售量確實比零件銷售量多，你還能獲得更高的利潤嗎？

Yes. I'm not sure we said that we'd sell more new equipment than parts. I mean, what we said is that equipment mining and Resource Industries, correct?

是的。我不確定我們是否說過我們銷售的新設備數量會比零件數量多。我的意思是，我們說的是設備採礦和資源工業，對嗎？

Yes, that's the question.

是的，這是個問題。

Yes. So both are improving. So our parts sales are increasing as are the opportunities for new equipment as well. So I'm not going to make a -- we're leveraging -- obviously, leveraging period costs. We're seeing higher volume, and that's a good thing. So I'm not going to make any comment on margins, new versus parts.

是的。因此，兩者都在進步。因此，我們的零件銷售量正在增加，新設備的機會也在增加。所以我不會 — — 我們正在利用 — — 顯然，利用期間成本。我們看到了更高的銷量，這是一件好事。因此，我不會對利潤、新品與零件做出任何評論。

Okay, fair enough. And then just a couple quick ones on tariffs. I know you've been managing that quite well so far. What happens when and if, it looks like more of an if -- sorry, when, the tariffs go to 25% on the Section 301? What type of impact would that have? And then are you either doing or seeing from your customers any kind of prebuy activity around that whole issue?

好吧，夠公平。然後我再簡單談關稅問題。我知道到目前為止你處理得非常好。如果，看起來更像是一個如果——抱歉，當第 301 條的關稅達到 25% 時，會發生什麼？這會產生什麼樣的影響？那麼，您是否正在做或看到您的客戶就整個問題進行任何類型的預購活動？

So we previously stated that our -- we would -- in the last 6 months of the year, we'd have cost headwinds of $100 million to $200 million. We're going to be at the lower end of that range, we believe. We haven't seen a big prebuy, but of course, we're in a situation where, as you know, we've had some constraints. And so we've been on managed distribution. So the -- we don't expect a major impact as, quite frankly, we were already hit with the earlier tariffs. So we don't think a later change will have an impact on us. It was already baked in for us.

因此，我們先前曾表示，在今年最後 6 個月，我們的成本阻力將達到 1 億至 2 億美元。我們相信，我們將處於該範圍的低端。我們還沒有看到大規模的預購，但當然，如你所知，我們的情況有一些限制。因此我們一直致力於管理分銷。所以，我們預計不會產生重大影響，因為坦白說，我們已經受到了早先的關稅的打擊。因此我們認為以後的變化不會對我們產生影響。它已經為我們準備好了。

And are you buying any parts ahead of changes in pricing?

在價格變動之前您是否會購買任何零件？

Well, again, we're in a situation where, as we talked earlier, there's a supply constraint challenge not only for Caterpillar and our competitors but for many other manufacturers as well. So I don't think anyone has, honestly, has the luxury of making a lot of big prebuys, so no.

嗯，正如我們之前所說的，我們現在的情況是，不僅卡特彼勒和我們的競爭對手面臨供應限制的挑戰，而且許多其他製造商也面臨供應限制的挑戰。所以老實說，我認為沒有人有進行大量預購的奢侈，所以沒有。

Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer.

今天的下一個問題來自 Rob Wertheimer。

It's Melius Research. And thank you for the prior answer. If I could just get a little bit more specific on it. I mean, obviously, tariffs are remaining big uncertainty for the market and estimates. Is it -- what you just said, is that meant to suggest that if there is 25% on the additional $200 billion of goods tariff, that that would be at or smaller than the impact you had this year? We just sort of can't see all the different things you and your sub-suppliers buy. So obviously, you've got a lot more information on qualifying that than we do.

這是 Melius Research。並感謝您之前的回答。如果我可以更具體一點的話。我的意思是，顯然關稅對於市場和預估來說仍然是一個巨大的不確定性。您剛才說的是不是意味著，如果對額外的 2000 億美元商品徵收 25% 的關稅，那麼其影響是否會等於或小於今年的影響？我們只是無法看到您和您的分包商購買的所有不同的東西。因此顯然，您比我們擁有更多的有關資格的資訊。

Yes. So the impact would be quite minor in the bigger scheme of things for Cat's results.

是的。因此，從更大角度來看，這對 Cat 的業績影響很小。

Okay. Okay, perfect. And are you doing any material sort of production mitigation where you produce more in Brazil or elsewhere to offset that? Or is it just straight minor on a gross basis, like either the stuff with tariff isn't as large in the second round for you?

好的。好的，完美。您是否採取了實質的生產減緩措施，例如在巴西或其他地方增加生產來抵消這種影響？或者從整體來看，這只是次要的，例如第二輪中加關稅的部分對你來說影響不是很大？

We're not making a lot of production shifts. I mean, our team is obviously continuously monitoring the situation. And as you know, it can -- with politics you get together, the situation can change dramatically day to day. So we have not made production shift decisions based on this. But just expanding on that, we have a global footprint, so we have the luxury of -- unlike some other companies. We manufacture products in Asia, in the Americas, in the EAME, so that does help us mitigate this somewhat because we do have a global manufacturing base.

我們不會進行大量的生產轉變。我的意思是，我們的團隊顯然正在持續監視局勢。正如你們所知，隨著政治的不斷發展，情況每天都會發生巨大的變化。因此，我們並未據此做出生產轉移決定。但進一步說，我們的業務遍布全球，因此我們擁有與其他一些公司不同的優勢。我們的產品在亞洲、美洲和歐洲、非洲和中東地區生產，這確實有助於我們緩解這種影響，因為我們確實擁有全球製造基地。

Our next question today is coming from Sameer Rathod.

今天的下一個問題來自 Sameer Rathod。

Macquarie Research. Just one quick question on labor cost. It seems like there's growing political pressure for $15 per hour, and we've seen some response to that already. Can you quantify how much of an impact, if any, it would be on cost in terms of Cat if Cat paid at least $15 an hour to its manufacturing staff?

麥格理研究。關於勞動成本，我只想問一個簡單的問題。似乎每小時 15 美元的政治壓力越來越大，我們已經看到了一些反應。如果 Cat 向其製造員工每小時支付至少 15 美元，您能否量化這對 Cat 的成本會產生多大影響（如果有的話）？

Yes. For the most part, it's not going to have an impact on us. And we are above $15 in the vast majority of places here in the U.S., so I don't see an impact on us.

是的。大多數情況下，它不會對我們產生影響。在美國，絕大多數地方的價格都超過 15 美元，所以我認為不會對我們產生影響。

Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss.

今天的下一個問題來自喬爾·蒂斯。

Bank of Montreal. So just 2 quick ones. You guys are running now near the top end of your Investor Day margins, and I just wondered if there's more kind of like leaning toward raising those targets. Or are we kind of passing the maximum point of the internal efficiencies and you're more comfortable just leaving them in place?

蒙特利爾銀行。因此只需快速問 2 個問題。你們現在的投資者日利潤率已接近最高水平，我只是想知道是否還有更多傾向於提高這些目標的傾向。或者說，我們內部效率已經達到了最高點，而您寧願保持現有狀態？

So as we talked about, we're focused on growing our business as well. So while our teams are continuously focused on making our operations more efficient, we're also investing for growth. So there's always a balance there between those margins and growth. But we're pleased that we are ahead of where we said we would be from a time perspective. And our team has a laser focus on those margins. But again, there's a balance between investing for growth. We just don't want to continue to bring that higher margins every year at the expense of growth. However, right, if we can both grow and have higher margins, then that's fine as well. So again, it's a balance.

正如我們所說的，我們也專注於發展我們的業務。因此，在我們的團隊不斷致力於提高營運效率的同時，我們也在為成長進行投資。因此利潤和成長之間總是存在著平衡。但我們很高興，從時間角度來看我們已經領先我們所說的目標。我們的團隊高度關注這些利潤。但同樣，在投資成長之間需要取得平衡。我們只是不想以犧牲成長為代價來每年提高利潤率。不過，如果我們既能發展，又能獲得更高的利潤，那麼這也很好。所以再次強調，這是一個平衡。

Okay. And then just...

好的。然後就...

I mean, if volumes -- sorry, so one comment. I mean, certainly, if volumes go up, obviously, that gives us an opportunity to have higher margins because we're leveraging that overhead across a higher volume. So that opportunity certainly exists.

我的意思是，如果數量太多——抱歉，所以只有一條評論。我的意思是，當然，如果銷售量上升，顯然這會為我們帶來獲得更高利潤的機會，因為我們可以透過更高的銷售量來利用這些間接費用。所以這個機會確實存在。

And then, Andrew, there's always been kind of this historic, inside of Cat, a push and pull between growing market share and having more pins in the map and profitability. And I just wondered, based on your experience and history and all that, if you -- what would be your initial input into that to be?

安德魯，在卡特彼勒公司內部，一直存在著這種歷史性的推拉關係，即在不斷增長的市場份額和在地圖上獲得更多的位置以及盈利能力之間進行。我只是想知道，根據您的經驗和歷史等等，您對此的初步意見是什麼？

Yes. I think let me just say we've -- the history is littered and -- of companies who've either gone for market share at the expense of margins and/or they've gone for margins at the expense of market share. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we want to do both, and it's all about trying to do profitable growth. I think that is really one of the reasons why I joined. I love the term profitable growth and the fact that it does mean that you actually have to do focus not just on growth and profits but actually sustainable long-term profitable growth. So ultimately, at the end of the day, you want to do both is the simple answer.

是的。我想，我只想說，歷史上有很多公司為了爭取市場佔有率而犧牲利潤率，或是為了爭奪利潤率而犧牲市場佔有率。最終，我們想要同時完成這兩項任務，而這一切都是為了獲利性成長。我認為這確實是我加入的原因之一。我喜歡「獲利成長」這個術語，它意味著你實際上不僅要專注於成長和利潤，還要專注於可持續的長期獲利成長。因此，最終，答案很簡單：你想同時做這兩件事。

Our next question today is coming from Chad Dillard.

今天的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德（Chad Dillard）。

From Deutsche Bank. I just want to go back to the $800 million increase in dealer inventory. Can you give a little bit more detail by segment and by region where the increase came from? And then where do you expect that to exit 2018?

來自德意志銀行。我只是想回顧一下經銷商庫存增加 8 億美元的問題。您能否按細分市場和地區詳細介紹成長的來源？那麼，您預計 2018 年的退出情況如何？

Yes. I mean, I'm not going to break down the $800 million for you by region. But as we said, one of the biggest areas where it was, was in China. And as a result of the selling season in second quarter, there was a very strong pull in, in China. Overall, across all segments, we are comfortable, but we still remain at the low end of the range. And then obviously, as with the production ramp ups, we are starting to get to a situation where dealers have adequate inventory on hand. So again, I think rather than getting to the sort of then start and to give you an update exactly where the inventory is, the inventory is across all the segments. There was build across all segments in the quarter. But generally, we are comfortable with where we've ended.

是的。我的意思是，我不會按地區劃分這 8 億美元。但正如我們所說，最大的受影響地區之一是中國。由於第二季的銷售旺季，中國的銷售額非常強勁。總體而言，我們在所有細分市場都表現良好，但仍處於較低水準。顯然，隨著產量的增加，我們開始面臨經銷商有充足庫存的情況。因此，我再次認為，庫存涵蓋了所有細分市場，而不是一開始就向您提供庫存的確切更新。本季所有部門均有所成長。但總體來說，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

That's helpful. And then just switching over to the price. You mentioned a 1% to 4% increase in 2019. How does that break down across your various segments? And then also, the thing that jumped out at me with was the 4% price increase in Resource Industries. And I was just curious whether it's more of a mix issue or you're actually getting price on an apples-to-apples basis, and if so, has the market tightened up, so that's sustainable?

這很有幫助。然後就轉到價格。您提到 2019 年將成長 1% 至 4%。在各個細分領域中，這比例是如何反映的？另外，讓我印象深刻的是資源產業的價格上漲了 4%。我只是好奇，這是否是一個混合問題，或者你實際上是在同類基礎上獲得價格，如果是這樣，那麼市場是否已經收緊，那麼這是可持續的？

Yes. So at this -- yes, again, the price realization in RI is a lot due to mix and -- versus the prior year. With regards to the 1% to 4%, we're not going to break it down by segment, but basically, it depends geographically, and it depends on business segment as to what the price increases were put through.

是的。因此，是的，與前一年相比，RI 的價格實現在很大程度上是由於混合造成的。至於 1% 到 4% 的成長，我們不會按細分市場進行細分，但基本上，這取決於地理位置，取決於業務部門，以及價格上漲的具體情況。

Kate, that's going to have to be our last question. Jim, do you have a couple of wrap-up comments?

凱特，這是我們的最後一個問題。吉姆，你還有什麼總結性的評論嗎？

Well, just thanks, everyone, for your time this morning. I just wanted to end by saying I'm very, very proud of the Caterpillar global team for the record profit per share for the third consecutive quarter. And we continue to deliver record quarterly profits even while many of our end markets are still in the early stages of recovery. We'll continue with the relentless execution of our strategy, supporting our customers' success, very focused on profitable growth and total shareholder return. We look forward to speaking with you all next quarter. Thank you.

好吧，非常感謝大家今天早上抽出時間。最後，我只想說，我為卡特彼勒全球團隊連續第三個季度創下每股獲利紀錄感到非常自豪。儘管我們的許多終端市場仍處於復甦的早期階段，但我們仍繼續實現創紀錄的季度利潤。我們將繼續堅持不懈地執行我們的策略，支持客戶的成功，並高度重視獲利成長和股東總回報。我們期待下個季度與大家交談。謝謝。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。