開拓重工 (CAT) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 2Q Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒第二季度收益結果電話會議。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人艾米坎貝爾 (Amy Campbell)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations for Caterpillar. On the call today, I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; and our Interim CFO, Joe Creed.

謝謝你，凱特。早安，歡迎大家參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。我叫艾米‧坎貝爾，卡特彼勒投資者關係總監。在今天的電話會議上，我很高興邀請到我們的執行長 Jim Umpleby；以及我們的臨時財務長喬·克里德（Joe Creed）。

Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc., and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled Results Webcast.

請記住，本次通話的版權歸卡特彼勒公司所有，未經卡特彼勒書面同意，嚴禁使用、錄製或傳輸本次通話的任何部分。如果您想要今天的電話會議記錄的副本，我們會將其發佈在 caterpillar.com 網站的投資者部分。它將位於標有“結果網路廣播”的部分中。

Also as a reminder, this morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in Item 1A, Risk Factors and the 2017 Form 10-K filed with the SEC and in our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this morning's presentation and our release, which is posted at caterpillar.com/earnings.

另外提醒一下，今天上午，我們將討論前瞻性訊息，其中涉及風險、不確定性和假設，這些資訊可能會導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性資訊有重大差異。有關單獨或整體上可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的因素的討論，請參閱第 1A 項「風險因素」和向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2017 年 10-K 表格以及我們今天的財務新聞稿中包含的前瞻性聲明。此外，非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天早上的簡報和我們的新聞稿的附錄中找到，該附錄發佈在 caterpillar.com/earnings 上。

We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim. Joe will walk us through a detailed overview of results and our revised outlook, and then we will turn it back to Kate to begin the Q&A portion of the call. Jim?

今天上午，我們將以吉姆的幾句話開始這場電話會議。喬將向我們詳細介紹結果和我們修改後的展望，然後我們將話題轉回給凱特，開始電話會議的問答部分。吉姆？

Thank you, Amy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We had another great quarter with outstanding performance by our global team. Second quarter sales and revenues were $14 billion, 24% higher than the second quarter of 2017. We saw increased sales in all 3 of our primary segments and in all geographic regions.

謝謝你，艾米。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我們度過了又一個輝煌的季度，我們的全球團隊表現出色。第二季的銷售和收入為 140 億美元，比 2017 年第二季高出 24%。我們發現所有三個主要分部的銷售額以及所有地理區域的銷售額都有所增長。

Profit per share of $2.82 was the best second quarter performance in our company history. Operating profit increased 83%, and adjusted profit per share was nearly double what it was in the same quarter last year. For those of you that have followed us through the cycles, you can recognize that our team did an excellent job managing costs as we significantly increased production, which allowed us to deliver record quarterly profit per share. We are a higher-performing company today as a result of our team's cost discipline, the application of the Operating & Execution Model and the restructuring actions we've implemented across the company in recent years. As the numbers show, we are delivering on the commitments made at our Investor Day last September.

每股獲利 2.82 美元，是我們公司歷史上最好的第二季業績。營業利潤成長83%，調整後每股盈餘幾乎是去年同期的兩倍。對於那些一直關注我們的人來說，您會發現我們的團隊在管理成本方面做得非常出色，因為我們大幅提高了產量，這使我們能夠實現創紀錄的季度每股利潤。由於我們團隊的成本紀律、營運和執行模式的應用以及近年來我們在全公司範圍內實施的重組行動，我們如今已成為一家業績更高的公司。如數字所示，我們正在履行去年九月投資者日所做的承諾。

We ended the quarter with $8.7 billion cash on hand and demonstrated our commitment to consistently return capital to shareholders in a disciplined way, by increasing the quarterly cash dividend by 10% per share and repurchasing $750 million of the company's common stock. We have repurchased $1.25 billion of stock since the first of the year. Sustainable dividend growth and returning capital to shareholders remain high priorities for us.

本季結束時，我們手頭上有 87 億美元現金，並透過將季度現金股息每股提高 10% 並回購了 7.5 億美元的公司普通股，展示了我們持續以嚴謹的方式向股東返還資本的承諾。自今年年初以來，我們已經回購了價值 12.5 億美元的股票。可持續的股息成長和向股東返還資本仍然是我們的首要任務。

Now to our outlook. We've had a great start to the year, and there is continuing improvement in many of our end markets, so we're raising our profit per share outlook for the full year.

現在談談我們的展望。我們今年有一個良好的開端，並且我們的許多終端市場都在持續改善，因此我們上調了全年每股利潤的預期。

We feel good about the state of our business. Most of our markets continued to improve in the second quarter. Our order rates in the backlog remain strong. For certain applications, particularly in oil and gas and mining, we are taking orders for delivery well into 2019. We're very focused on the products, services and innovation, which will fuel future growth. We intend to continue investing in the expanded offerings and services that are core components of our strategy, digital initiatives like e-commerce, connected assets and autonomous machines as well as new engine technologies and machine programs. Here are a few examples to showcase what we're accomplishing.

我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意。我們的大部分市場在第二季繼續好轉。我們的積壓訂單率仍然很高。對於某些應用，特別是石油、天然氣和採礦業，我們正在接受 2019 年交付的訂單。我們高度關注產品、服務和創新，這將推動未來的成長。我們打算繼續投資於作為我們戰略核心組成部分的擴展產品和服務、電子商務、互聯資產和自動化機器等數位化計劃以及新引擎技術和機器程序。以下有幾個例子可以展示我們所取得的成就。

For expanded offerings, we have introduced the 20-ton class of next-generation excavators, which offer unique combinations of purpose-built features designed to match customers' productivity and cost targets.

為了擴大產品範圍，我們推出了 20 噸級的新一代挖土機，該挖土機提供獨特的專用功能組合，旨在滿足客戶的生產力和成本目標。

The services component of our strategy has multiple initiatives, and we continue to invest in our digital capabilities. We have about 700,000 connected assets, roughly 30% more than the number of assets we cited in Investor Day. We have the largest number of autonomous machines in the mining industry, and these autonomous solutions helped customers experience 20% productivity improvement over best-in-class mine sites. As part of an ongoing pilot, a large customer recently moved the first payload using the fully autonomous CAT 400-ton haul truck in the oil sands. This is the largest autonomous truck ever put into a productive operating environment.

我們的策略的服務部分有多項舉措，並且我們將繼續投資於我們的數位化能力。我們擁有約 70 萬項關聯資產，比我們在投資者日引用的資產數量約多 30%。我們擁有採礦業中數量最多的自動化機器，這些自動化解決方案幫助客戶的生產力比一流礦場增加了 20%。作為正在進行的試點的一部分，一家大客戶最近使用全自動 CAT 400 噸自卸卡車在油砂中運送了第一批有效載荷。這是迄今為止投入生產營運環境的最大的自動駕駛卡車。

As part of our services strategy, we've increased the number of products sold with customer support agreements. We've also made 2 acquisitions in early 2018 to increase our service capabilities for our rail customers. We continue to make strategic investments in engine technologies such as advanced engine controls, high-performance air and fuel systems and new material compositions in our pursuit of improved power density, efficiency and emissions.

作為我們服務策略的一部分，我們增加了附帶客戶支援協議的產品銷售數量。我們也在 2018 年初進行了兩次收購，以增強我們為鐵路客戶提供的服務能力。我們持續對引擎技術進行策略性投資，例如先進的引擎控制、高性能空氣和燃油系統以及新材料組合，以追求提高功率密度、效率和減少排放。

On the issue of trade, we urge government leaders to take actions to remove uncertainty. As a global manufacturer, Caterpillar has long advocated for free trade because it enhances global competitiveness and helps U.S. manufacturers grow U.S. jobs and exports. Based on the current situation, we've assumed incremental tariff-related costs of $100 million to $200 million for the rest of the year. Even with these new costs, we are raising our 2018 outlook. We are confident that our strategy positions us to capitalize on current market opportunities and manage through dynamic environments.

在貿易問題上，我們敦促政府領導人採取行動消除不確定性。作為一家全球製造商，卡特彼勒長期以來一直倡導自由貿易，因為它能夠增強全球競爭力並幫助美國製造商增加美國就業和出口。根據目前的情況，我們預計今年剩餘時間與關稅相關的增量成本將為 1 億至 2 億美元。即使有了這些新成本，我們仍然上調了 2018 年的預期。我們相信，我們的策略使我們能夠利用當前的市場機會並在動態環境中進行管理。

In summary, this was a great all around quarter for sales growth, operational performance and capital deployment. We delivered record second quarter profit per share and raised the full year outlook. Our financial position is strong. We feel good about our markets, and will remain focused on structural cost control while investing for profitable growth. These results continue to give us confidence that our strategy, with the core components of operational excellence, expanded offerings and services, framed by the fundamental discipline of the Operating & Execution Model, is delivering value for our customers and our shareholders.

總而言之，本季的銷售成長、營運表現和資本配置均表現優異。我們第二季每股獲利創歷史新高，並上調了全年預期。我們的財務狀況良好。我們對我們的市場充滿信心，並將繼續專注於結構性成本控制，同時投資以實現獲利成長。這些結果繼續讓我們充滿信心，我們的策略以卓越營運、擴大產品和服務為核心，以營運和執行模式的基本原則為框架，正在為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Joe.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給喬。

All right. Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with a brief overview of the headline numbers on Slide 4.

好的。謝謝，吉姆，大家早安。讓我們先簡單概述一下投影片 4 上的標題數字。

As Jim mentioned, the team performed extremely well in the second quarter. Sales and revenues for the second quarter increased to $14 billion, 24% higher than the second quarter of 2017, as we continue to ramp production to meet higher demand. Our end markets remain strong, most notably North America and China construction, as well as North American onshore oil and gas. Mining sales, while still in the early stages of recovery, were also up as we're seeing increased orders and deliveries for new equipment in addition to aftermarket parts.

正如吉姆所提到的，球隊在第二節表現非常出色。由於我們持續提高產量以滿足更高的需求，第二季的銷售和收入增至 140 億美元，比 2017 年第二季高出 24%。我們的終端市場依然強勁，尤其是北美和中國的建築業，以及北美陸上石油和天然氣。採礦業的銷售雖然仍處於復甦的初期，但也有所上升，因為我們看到除了售後零件之外，新設備的訂單和交付量也在增加。

Once again, profit per share of $2.82 was the best second quarter performance in our company history. Adjusted profit per share of $2.97 was about double last year, driven primarily by the higher sales volume and continued cost discipline.

再次，每股獲利 2.82 美元，創下公司歷史上第二季的最佳業績。調整後每股利潤為 2.97 美元，比去年同期成長一倍左右，主要得益於銷售量成長和持續的成本控制。

We have a strong balance sheet and ended the quarter with $8.7 billion of enterprise cash. ME&T operating cash flow was $2.1 billion in the quarter. Also, we have demonstrated our commitment to return capital to shareholders by increasing the quarterly dividend by 10% per share and repurchasing $750 million of the company's common stock. As the numbers reflect, this was a great quarter for sales growth, operational performance and capital deployment. These results continue to give us confidence in our strategy. We're using the Operating & Execution Model to drive profitable growth through operational excellence as well as expanded offerings and services for our customers.

我們擁有強勁的資產負債表，本季末的企業現金為 87 億美元。本季 ME&T 營運現金流為 21 億美元。此外，我們還透過將季度股息每股提高 10% 並回購價值 7.5 億美元的公司普通股，展示了我們向股東返還資本的承諾。從數據來看，本季的銷售成長、營運表現和資本配置均表現優異。這些結果繼續增強了我們對我們的策略的信心。我們正在使用營運和執行模式，透過卓越的營運以及為客戶提供更廣泛的產品和服務來推動獲利成長。

Now turn to Slide 5, and we'll discuss operating profit. Operating profit in the second quarter was almost $2.2 billion, an increase of 83% compared to the second quarter of last year. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 16.3%, on the high end of our Investor Day range and 440 basis points higher than the second quarter of 2017. While we expect operating margins to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, the second quarter represents an impressive improvement and demonstrates the operating leverage we have across the company due to our restructuring efforts and ongoing cost discipline. Again, I want to thank our global team for their commitment to operational excellence, which can clearly be seen in this quarter's results. As you see in the chart, higher sales volume across all 3 of our primary segments contribute an additional $1 billion of operating profit compared to the same quarter last year. Price realization was about $90 million in the second quarter, more than offsetting higher manufacturing costs.

現在翻到投影片 5，我們將討論營業利潤。第二季營業利潤近 22 億美元，較去年第二季成長 83%。本季調整後的營業利潤率為 16.3%，處於投資者日範圍的高位，比 2017 年第二季高出 440 個基點。雖然我們預計營業利潤率會逐季度波動，但第二季度的營業利潤率取得了令人矚目的進步，並證明了我們由於重組努力和持續的成本控製而在整個公司擁有的營業槓桿。再次，我要感謝我們全球團隊對卓越營運的承諾，這在本季度的業績中得到了清晰的體現。正如您在圖表中所看到的，與去年同期相比，我們三個主要部門的銷售量都有所增加，額外貢獻了 10 億美元的營業利潤。第二季的價格實現金額約為 9,000 萬美元，足以抵銷更高的製造成本。

Let's expand on manufacturing costs for a minute. They increased roughly $80 million compared to last year as higher freight and material costs were partially offset by lower warranty expense. In the quarter, higher freight costs drove the largest increase to manufacturing costs. That's the result of several factors, including higher freight rates due to strained capacity in the trucking industry, less efficient freight loads, and expedited freight as we continue to ramp production to meet increased demand.

讓我們稍微討論一下製造成本。與去年相比，它們增加了約 8000 萬美元，因為更高的運費和材料成本被更低的保固費用部分抵消。本季，運費上漲是製造成本最大漲幅的原因。這是由多種因素造成的，包括因卡車運輸業運力緊張導致的運費上漲、貨運效率降低，以及由於我們不斷提高產量以滿足不斷增長的需求而導致的貨運加急。

Material costs were up about 1%, driven largely by higher steel costs, an increase we anticipated because of higher commodity prices. Period costs remain well-controlled in the quarter, up less than 3% compared to last year, even with 24% higher sales and revenues. And finally, Financial Products was unfavorable $56 million. However, the core business is performing well. Higher past dues and increased write-offs this quarter were primarily limited to a few customers in Cat Power and a review of the recent collection experience of our Latin America portfolio.

材料成本上漲約 1%，主要原因是鋼材成本上漲，我們預期鋼材成本會上漲是因為大宗商品價格上漲。本季期間成本仍得到良好控制，與去年相比成長不到 3%，儘管銷售額和收入成長了 24%。最後，金融產品虧損 5,600 萬美元。不過，核心業務表現良好。本季逾期款項增加和註銷額增加主要限於 Cat Power 的少數客戶，以及對我們拉丁美洲投資組合近期收款經驗的審查。

Now let's take a look at the performance of each segment, beginning with Construction Industries on Slide 6. Sales for Construction Industries were $6.2 billion in the second quarter, an increase of $1.2 billion or 24% from 2017. CI sales increased across all regions, with the strongest performance in Asia Pacific and North America. Asia Pacific sales were up 43% or about $500 million, driven primarily by China, where we are seeing continued investment in building construction and infrastructure. Sales of excavators in China remained strong in the second quarter, with industry sales for the 10-ton and above excavator up more than 70% year-to-date. North America also continued to be a bright spot for CI in the quarter with sales up about $400 million or 18%. Much of the sales increase was driven by investment in nonresidential construction and oil and gas-related projects, including pipelines. Segment profit increased 28% over the last year to $1.2 billion, which is a record for CI. And operating margin in the quarter was 18.7%, exceeding the Investor Day range. Higher sales volume was the primary driver of the profit improvement. This was partially offset by unfavorable price realization and higher cost for material, freight as well as SG&A and R&D. Pricing was competitive in the second quarter, especially in some of our key regions for CI. However, we did announce a midyear price increase for machines that took effect on July 1.

現在讓我們來看看每個部門的表現，從幻燈片 6 上的建築業開始。第二季建築業的銷售額為 62 億美元，比 2017 年增加 12 億美元，增幅為 24%。所有地區的 CI 銷售額均實現成長，其中亞太地區和北美地區表現最為強勁。亞太地區的銷售額成長了 43%，約 5 億美元，這主要得益於中國，我們看到中國在建築施工和基礎設施方面持續進行投資。第二季度，中國挖土機銷售依然強勁，今年迄今，10噸及以上挖土機產業銷量成長超過70%。北美地區繼續成為 CI 本季的亮點，銷售額增長約 4 億美元，增幅 18%。銷售額的成長很大程度上得益於非住宅建築以及包括管道在內的石油和天然氣相關項目的投資。該部門利潤較去年同期增長 28%，達到 12 億美元，創下了 CI 的最高紀錄。本季營業利益率為 18.7%，超出投資者日預期。銷售量上升是利潤成長的主要動力。但這一增幅被不利的價格實現和更高的材料、運費以及銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用所部分抵銷。第二季的定價具有競爭力，特別是在我們一些主要的 CI 區域。不過，我們確實宣布了將於 7 月 1 日起生效的機器年中價格上漲。

Now let's move on to Slide 7. The Resource Industries teams turned in a great second quarter. Sales for RI were $2.5 billion in the quarter, up 38% from a year ago. In addition to ongoing aftermarket parts demand to support machine activity and rebuild, sales for new equipment increased across all regions. Our mining customers are placing orders on new equipment as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. However, we believe mining customers have yet to begin full-scale fleet replacements. In addition, global economic growth and infrastructure investment contributed to higher sales of heavy construction equipment.

現在讓我們來看第 7 張投影片。資源產業團隊在第二季表現優異。本季 RI 的銷售額為 25 億美元，比去年同期成長 38%。除了持續支援機器活動和重建的售後零件需求外，所有地區的新設備銷售都有所增加。由於商品價格仍高於投資門檻，我們的採礦客戶正在訂購新設備。然而，我們認為採礦客戶尚未開始全面更換車隊。此外，全球經濟成長和基礎設施投資推動重型建築設備銷售成長。

Segment profit of $411 million was more than 4x higher than the second quarter of 2017. And segment margin improved to 16.3%, which surpasses the Investor Day range of 12% to 16%. RI's improved performance and margin expansion is primarily due to operating leverage gained through significant restructuring and the team's disciplined cost management. In fact, RI period costs were about flat, with 38% higher sales.

該部門利潤為 4.11 億美元，較 2017 年第二季成長 4 倍以上。分部利潤率提高至 16.3%，超過了投資者日 12% 至 16% 的範圍。RI 業績改善和利潤率擴大主要得益於透過重大重組獲得的經營槓桿以及團隊嚴格的成本管理。事實上，RI 期間成本基本上持平，而銷售額卻成長了 38%。

Now let's turn to Slide 8, and we'll discuss Energy & Transportation. E&T sales in the second quarter were $5.7 billion, 20% higher than the same quarter last year, with sales increasing across all applications. Sales in the oil and gas applications were up $400 million or 39% as we continue to see strength in onshore activity in North America, especially for gas compression and well servicing applications. For power generation, sales increased 13%, driven primarily by sales of gas-powered applications in EAME. Our industrial application sales increased 10%, largely driven by improving global economic conditions and higher end-user demand across most applications. And finally, transportation sales were up 14%, driven by our 2 recent acquisitions in rail services, one in Europe and one in Australia, along with increased rail traffic in North America. Marine was also up slightly due to higher sales into the cruise sector.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 8，討論能源和交通。第二季電子與科技銷售額為 57 億美元，比去年同期成長 20%，所有應用領域的銷售額均有所成長。石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售額成長了 4 億美元，即 39%，因為我們繼續看到北美陸上活動的強勁成長，特別是在氣體壓縮和井服務應用方面。發電方面，銷售額成長了 13%，主要得益於歐洲、非洲和中東地區燃氣發電應用的銷售。我們的工業應用銷售額成長了 10%，這主要得益於全球經濟狀況的改善和大多數應用領域的終端用戶需求的增加。最後，運輸銷售額成長了 14%，這得益於我們最近在鐵路服務領域進行的兩次收購（一次在歐洲，一次在澳洲），以及北美鐵路運輸量的增加。由於郵輪產業銷售額增加，海運業也小漲。

Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was just over $1 billion, up about $300 million from last year. The segment margin improved over 300 basis points to 17.7%, which is at the high end of the Investor Day range. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to higher sales volume, favorable price realization and lower short-term incentive compensation expense. This was partially offset by higher freight costs.

能源和運輸部門的利潤略高於 10 億美元，比去年增加約 3 億美元。該部門利潤率提高了 300 多個基點，達到 17.7%，處於投資者日範圍的高點。E&T 利潤的成長主要得益於銷售量的增加、優惠的價格實現以及短期激勵薪酬費用的降低。但運費上漲部分抵銷了這一影響。

Before I move to the outlook, I want to spend a moment talking about capital deployment on Slide 9. As I mentioned earlier, our ME&T operating cash flow was $2.1 billion in the second quarter, and we finished the quarter with $8.7 billion of enterprise cash on hand. While we're committed to investing to profitably grow our business, we also have the benefit of strong operating cash flow and a solid balance sheet, which provides the flexibility to continue returning capital to shareholders. We intend to do this in a disciplined way by focusing on sustainable dividend growth and being in the market for share repurchases on a fairly consistent basis.

在介紹展望之前，我想花點時間談談第 9 張投影片上的資本部署。正如我之前提到的，我們的 ME&T 營運現金流在第二季為 21 億美元，而本季結束時，我們的企業現金餘額為 87 億美元。我們致力於透過投資來實現業務的獲利成長，同時我們也受益於強勁的經營現金流和穩健的資產負債表，這為我們繼續向股東返還資本提供了靈活性。我們打算以嚴謹的方式實現這一目標，專注於可持續的股息成長，並以相當一致的方式進入股票回購市場。

In line with this strategy, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% per share and repurchased $750 million of common stock in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total repurchases to $1.25 billion. We expect share repurchases in the second half of the year to be in a range similar to the first half, but we could be more opportunistic, depending on market conditions and investing priorities.

按照這項策略，我們在第二季將季度股息每股提高了 10%，並回購了 7.5 億美元的普通股，使今年迄今的總回購額達到 12.5 億美元。我們預計下半年的股票回購幅度將與上半年相似，但我們可能會採取更多機會措施，這取決於市場狀況和投資重點。

Our current share repurchases authorization expires at the end of this year. To ensure continuity of our cash deployment priorities, the Board of Directors approved a new $10 billion share repurchase authorization, which is effective January 1, 2019, with no expiration date. Again, the team delivered an outstanding second quarter.

我們目前的股票回購授權將於今年底到期。為了確保我們現金部署重點的連續性，董事會批准了一項新的 100 億美元股票回購授權，自 2019 年 1 月 1 日起生效，且沒有截止日期。該隊在第二節再次表現出色。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 and look at the details of our updated outlook. As we said in our release this morning, based on our strong year-to-date performance and our current view of our end markets, we are raising our full year profit per share outlook to a range of $10.50 to $11.50. Excluding restructuring costs of about $400 million, we now expect adjusted profit per share to be in a range of $11 to $12.

現在讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片，看看我們更新後的展望的細節。正如我們在今天早上的發布中所說的那樣，基於我們今年迄今為止的強勁表現以及我們目前對終端市場的看法，我們將全年每股利潤預期上調至 10.50 美元至 11.50 美元之間。除去約 4 億美元的重組成本，我們現在預計調整後每股利潤將在 11 美元至 12 美元之間。

I'll share some perspective on our various end markets in more detail on the next slide, but first, let's talk about a few items that are included in this outlook.

我將在下一張投影片中更詳細地分享我們各個終端市場的一些觀點，但首先，讓我們討論一下此展望中包含的一些內容。

We feel good about the state of our business. Most of our end markets continued to improve in the second quarter. Order rates in the backlog remain strong. For certain applications, particularly in oil and gas and mining, we continued taking orders for delivery well into 2019. Recently imposed tariffs had minimal impact in the quarter but are expected to impact our second half material costs by approximately $100 million to $200 million. We also expect freight costs to remain elevated as we ramp production to meet higher demand. However, we intend to offset most of these headwinds through midyear price increases and continued use of the operating and execution model to drive operational excellence and structural cost discipline. We will also continue to invest in our future, focusing our investments on expanded offerings and services. In addition to new machine and engine programs, we are also investing in digital technologies that are expanding the services and the solutions we offer our customers.

我們對我們的業務狀況感到滿意。我們的大部分終端市場在第二季繼續改善。積壓訂單率依然保持強勁。對於某些應用，特別是石油、天然氣和採礦業，我們會繼續接受訂單，並將在 2019 年交付。最近徵收的關稅對本季的影響很小，但預計將對我們下半年的材料成本產生約 1 億至 2 億美元的影響。我們也預計，隨著我們增加產量以滿足更高的需求，運費仍將維持在高位。然而，我們打算透過年中提價以及繼續使用營運和執行模式來推動卓越營運和結構成本紀律，以抵消大部分不利因素。我們也將繼續投資於未來，並專注於擴大產品和服務。除了新的機器和引擎專案外，我們還投資數位技術，以擴展我們為客戶提供的服務和解決方案。

Now let's take a look at our end markets in a little more detail on Slide 11. This slide reflects our current view of the end markets we serve. As you can see, our end markets are at various stages. Some are experiencing strong demand, some are in the early stages of recovery, and some remain challenged compared to historical levels.

現在讓我們在第 11 張投影片上更詳細地了解我們的終端市場。這張投影片反映了我們對所服務的終端市場目前的看法。如您所見，我們的終端市場處於不同階段。有些國家需求強勁，有些國家正處於復甦初期，有些國家與歷史水準相比仍面臨挑戰。

For Construction Industries, we're experiencing strong product demand in Asia Pacific, North America and EAME, while sales in Latin America are still depressed. Given the strong selling season, our backlog is down slightly compared to the first quarter. This reflects normal seasonal patterns for CI, and our order rates remain healthy. As you know, North America retail stats just turned positive in May of last year after 24 consecutive months of decline. We believe demand will continue to be strong with investments in nonresidential construction and oil and gas-related projects, including pipelines.

對於建築業，我們在亞太地區、北美和歐洲、非洲和中東地區的產品需求強勁，而拉丁美洲的銷售仍然低迷。鑑於銷售旺季，我們的積壓訂單與第一季相比略有下降。這反映了 CI 的正常季節性模式，我們的訂單率仍然保持健康。眾所周知，北美零售業數據在連續24個月下滑之後，去年5月才開始轉好。我們相信，非住宅建築以及包括管道在內的石油和天然氣相關項目的投資需求將繼續保持強勁。

For Resource Industries, robust economic growth and infrastructure investments are driving strong demand in heavy construction applications. However, for global mining customers, we believe this recovery is still in the early stages. What started the strong demand for aftermarket parts and rebuilds has recently progressed to increased demand for new equipment. Commodity prices continue to be above investment thresholds, which is improving the financial health of many mining customers. We are working hard to continue to increase production with our suppliers and at our facilities. In the second quarter, our production and shipping activity kept pace with the increase in order rate, and as a result, the backlog for RI remained flat.

對於資源產業，強勁的經濟成長和基礎設施投資正在推動重型建築應用的強勁需求。然而，對於全球礦業客戶而言，我們認為這種復甦仍處於早期階段。最初對售後零件和重建產品的強勁需求最近已發展為對新設備的需求增加。大宗商品價格持續高於投資門檻，這改善了許多礦業客戶的財務狀況。我們正在努力與供應商和工廠一起繼續提高產量。第二季度，我們的生產和運輸活動與訂單率的成長保持同步，因此RI的積壓訂單保持穩定。

Energy & Transportation is our most diverse segment and serves a wide variety of end markets. Sales in the North America gas compression and well servicing applications remain very strong. The Permian Basin contains the most drilled rigs and uncompleted wells in the U.S., and we expect growth in the region to continue. We are also continuing to see increased activity across other shale basins in the U.S. as recent market conditions have enabled them to be profitable. While gas compression and well servicing demand is strong in North America, we continue to see weak demand for new equipment for on and offshore drilling as well as offshore oil and gas production.

能源和運輸是我們最多元化的領域，服務於各種各樣的終端市場。北美氣體壓縮和井服務應用的銷售仍然強勁。二疊紀盆地擁有全美國最多的鑽井平台和未完工井，我們預計該地區的成長將持續。我們也繼續看到美國其他頁岩盆地的活動增加，因為最近的市場條件使它們能夠獲利。儘管北美對天然氣壓縮和井服務的需求強勁，但我們仍然看到對陸上和海上鑽井以及海上石油和天然氣生產的新設備的需求疲軟。

Power generation is experiencing a demand increase following the multiyear downturn in sales. The improvement is driven mostly by demand for powering data centers and gas-powered applications in EAME. While sales are expected to be up in 2018, we believe this year will still be well below our recent high in 2012.

在經歷了多年的銷售低迷之後，發電需求正在增加。這項改善主要得益於歐洲、非洲和中東地區對資料中心和燃氣驅動應用的供電需求。儘管預計 2018 年的銷售額將會上升，但我們認為今年的銷售額仍將遠低於 2012 年的近期最高水準。

Sales for industrial applications are strong, largely due to improving global economic conditions and higher end-user demand across most applications. The North American rail market is showing signs of recovery. Total carloads improved, and stored locomotives were down for the second quarter. While we have received orders for new locomotives, the demand is low compared to historic levels. We have, however, seen a significant increase for rail services and locomotive rebuilds. For marine sales, we're seeing improvements for cruise and tugboats, but the marine market continues to be challenged, especially for workboat supporting offshore oil platforms.

工業應用的銷售強勁，這主要歸因於全球經濟狀況的改善和大多數應用領域的終端用戶需求的增加。北美鐵路市場正在出現復甦跡象。第二季度，貨車總裝載量有所增加，但機車存放量有所下降。雖然我們已經收到了新機車的訂單，但與歷史水平相比，需求仍然較低。然而，我們看到鐵路服務和機車重建的顯著增長。對於船舶銷售，我們看到遊輪和拖船的改善，但船舶市場仍然面臨挑戰，特別是對於支援海上石油平台的工作船而言。

In summary, we feel good about our end markets, many of which continue to be strong, while others are recovering. And we are confident our corporate strategy positions us well to manage through this dynamic environment.

總而言之，我們對我們的終端市場感到滿意，其中許多市場繼續保持強勁，而其他市場正在復甦。我們堅信，我們的企業策略能夠讓我們很好地應對這一動態環境。

Now I'd like to give a quick update on the execution of our strategy on Slide 12. Recall at Investor Day last September, we provided target operating margin ranges for all 3 segments and for the company. Those ranges reflected our expectations for significantly improved performance at achievable sales levels that we had seen in the past. Slide 12 shows our consolidated sales and revenues and adjusted operating margin history back to 2012, which was our peak for sales and revenues. The column on the far right reflects our consolidated Investor Day operating margin range of 14% to 17% at sales levels of about $55 billion.

現在，我想簡單介紹一下第 12 張投影片中我們策略的執行情況。回想去年 9 月的投資者日，我們為所有三個部門和整個公司提供了目標營業利潤率範圍。這些範圍反映了我們對過去可實現的銷售水準上業績大幅提升的期望。投影片 12 顯示了我們的綜合銷售額和收入以及調整後的營業利潤率歷史記錄，可追溯到 2012 年，當時是銷售額和收入的巔峰時期。最右邊的欄位反映了我們的投資者日綜合營業利潤率範圍，在銷售額約 550 億美元的情況下，為 14% 至 17%。

As the numbers show, we are delivering on our commitments. The last 12 months of sales and revenues dating back to July of 2017 were just over $51 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 15%. That's more than 100 basis points higher than our 2012 performance, which was achieved on sales and revenues of almost $66 billion. Like Jim said, running the business using the operating execution model, coupled with restructuring actions, has made us a higher-performing company. We are committed to delivering stronger performance throughout the cycle.

如數字所示，我們正在履行我們的承諾。截至 2017 年 7 月的過去 12 個月的銷售額和收入略高於 510 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率為 15%。這比我們 2012 年的業績高出 100 多個基點，2012 年的銷售額和收入接近 660 億美元。正如吉姆所說，使用營運執行模式來經營業務，再加上重組行動，使我們成為了一家業績更高的公司。我們致力於在整個週期中提供更強勁的表現。

We are relentless in control of our structural costs, as evidenced by our results, but these results aren't all about cost control. The real power of the Operating & Execution Model comes from focusing resources on growing our most profitable businesses to maximize returns, like investments in the next-gen excavator, autonomous technologies, connecting assets and expanding our e-commerce platform, to name a few. This demonstrated performance, along with our current view of key end markets, gives us the confidence to raise our full year outlook for 2018.

我們堅持不懈地控制結構性成本，我們的績效證明了這一點，但這些績效並非全是成本控制的結果。營運和執行模式的真正力量在於集中資源發展我們最賺錢的業務以實現回報最大化，例如對下一代挖掘機、自動化技術、連接資產和擴展我們的電子商務平台的投資等等。這一表現加上我們目前對主要終端市場的看法，使我們有信心上調 2018 年全年預期。

Now let's turn to Slide 13, and I'll conclude with a quick summary. We are delivering on our commitments, and our strategy is working. We delivered record second quarter profit per share, raised the full year outlook and are returning capital to shareholders. We're confident in our end markets, and will remain focused on structural cost control while investing for profitable growth.

現在讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片，我將做一個簡短的總結。我們正在履行承諾，我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們第二季每股獲利創歷史新高，上調了全年預期，並向股東返還資本。我們對我們的終端市場充滿信心，並將繼續專注於結構性成本控制，同時投資以實現獲利成長。

With that, I'll turn it back to Amy to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

說完這些，我會把話題轉回給艾米，開始電話會議的問答部分。

Thank you, Joe. Kate, we're ready for the first question.

謝謝你，喬。凱特，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Andrew Casey.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自安德魯·凱西（Andrew Casey）。

Wells Fargo Securities. Couple of questions on margins. First, does the updated guidance still incorporate an expectation that Q1 performance would be the best of the year? And then second, looking at Slide 12, I'm just wondering how to put everything in context given your growth initiatives and how quickly the segment margin performance has either exceeded or gone towards the top end of Investor Day ranges. I'm just wondering, should we expect further upside to margin performance even with how good it's been so far?

富國證券。關於利潤率的幾個問題。首先，更新後的指引是否仍反映了第一季業績將是全年最佳的預期？其次，請看一下投影片 12，我只是想知道如何根據您的成長計畫將所有內容放在上下文中，以及分部利潤率表現如何快速超過或接近投資者日範圍的最高端。我只是想知道，即使到目前為止利潤率表現已經很好，我們是否應該期待利潤率表現進一步上升？

Andy, this is Jim. I'll address the second part of your question first. So as you indicated, we gave expected operating margin targets for known achievable sales levels in the recent past. We -- obviously, if in fact, sales are higher in each of those segments, it's not unreasonable to expect higher margin percentages. However, we also want to grow our business, as we talked about at Investor Day. So if we're at the top end of one of those ranges and we have the opportunity to increase sales significantly and hope that there's a specific opportunity, just a great opportunity to -- that allows us to increase sales but keeps that margin percentage at the top end of that range, that's something we'll do. However, obviously, higher sales, one should expect in general, higher operating margin percentages.

安迪，這是吉姆。我先來回答你問題的第二部分。正如您所說，我們針對近期已知的可實現銷售水準給出了預期的營業利潤率目標。顯然，如果事實上每個細分市場的銷售額都更高，那麼預期更高的利潤率百分比也是合理的。然而，正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們也希望發展我們的業務。因此，如果我們處於其中一個範圍的高端，並且有機會大幅提高銷售額，並希望有一個特定的機會，一個絕佳的機會 - 這使我們能夠增加銷售額，但保持利潤率百分比處於該範圍的高端，這就是我們會做的事情。然而，顯然，銷售額越高，人們整體上應該預期營業利潤率也會越高。

And from -- this is Joe. From quarter to quarter, I would expect those operating margin ranges could bounce around a little bit, but I don't think we would expect any -- the second half to be significantly different than what we've seen through the first half of this year.

來自－－這是喬。我預計，從一個季度到另一個季度，這些營業利潤率範圍可能會有所波動，但我認為下半年的情況不會與上半年有顯著不同。

Our next question today is coming from Joe O'Dea.

今天的下一個問題來自喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

It's Vertical Research. On tariffs and trade, just in terms of backward looking on the quarter, it really doesn't seem like much of a disruption. As you think about just the customer interactions over the course of the quarter though, I think in -- and in particular, related to China, anything that you're seeing relative to your kind of direct exposure with China utilization levels of equipment over the course of the past couple months? Anything on the demand side with excavators? And then when we think about the indirect exposure, and I guess, in particular as it would relate to mining and anything there where you'd see a little bit increased customer unease on mining just as it relates to kind of some of the headlines around trade?

這是垂直研究。就關稅和貿易而言，僅從回顧本季來看，似乎並沒有造成太大的干擾。當您考慮本季的客戶互動時，我想，特別是與中國相關的互動，您看到的任何與過去幾個月中國設備利用率水準直接相關的事情是什麼？挖土機的需求方面有什麼狀況嗎？然後，當我們考慮間接風險時，我想，特別是與採礦業相關的風險，以及任何與採礦業相關的風險，您會看到客戶對採礦業的不安感有所增加，就像它與一些貿易方面的頭條新聞有關一樣？

Yes, Joe, it's Jim. To answer the first part of your question, we -- our business in China continues to be strong. We haven't seen an impact of the trade tension on our business. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we feel good about our business, and our markets continue to look quite good. We also haven't seen a negative impact from mining either. Obviously, as one looks at global economic conditions and global economic growth, there's a whole variety of factors that feed into what the global economies will be. But as we stand here today, we feel good about our markets, and our demand remains strong.

是的，喬，我是吉姆。回答你問題的第一部分，我們在中國的業務持續強勁。我們尚未看到貿易緊張局勢對我們的業務產生影響。正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們對我們的業務感到滿意，並且我們的市場繼續表現良好。我們也沒有看到採礦帶來的負面影響。顯然，當我們觀察全球經濟狀況和全球經濟成長時，會發現各種不同的因素都會影響全球經濟的發展。但今天我們站在這裡，我們對我們的市場感覺良好，我們的需求仍然強勁。

Got it. And then just on construction pricing and the midyear increases, is that something that we start to see in 3Q? Or just given the backlog, Does that take a little bit of time to actually show up in the results that we'll see?

知道了。那麼僅就建築價格和年中成長而言，這是我們在第三季開始看到的事情嗎？或者只是考慮到積壓，是否需要一點時間才能真正顯示在我們將看到的結果中？

No. I'm glad you asked, Joe. So I think you're right on there. Given the backlog and the time it takes for that midyear price action to work through, we would expect some lag. So we would expect to start to see the favorability for the midyear price increase in Construction Industries to be a little later in the year, maybe towards the end of the third quarter, into the fourth quarter.

不。我很高興你問這個問題，喬。所以我認為你說得對。考慮到積壓情況以及年中價格行動發揮作用所需的時間，我們預計會出現一些延遲。因此，我們預計建築業年中價格上漲的有利因素將在今年稍後開始顯現，可能是在第三季末或第四季。

Our next question today is coming from Stephen Volkmann.

今天的下一個問題來自史蒂芬‧福爾克曼 (Stephen Volkmann)。

It's Jefferies. So I'm wondering, Jim, maybe we can go back quickly to something you said, I think, in response to Andy's question. Do you have a big backlog or pipeline of things that you would like to fund with respect to growth initiatives that may start to come in at a faster pace going forward?

是杰弗里斯。所以我想知道，吉姆，也許我們可以快速回到你在回答安迪的問題時所說的話。您是否有大量積壓或準備事項需要資助，以支持未來可能以更快速度開展的成長計畫？

We're continuing evaluating opportunities for investment to fuel future growth. We've talked about what we're doing in our -- services, obviously, is a big area of focus for us, and we're investing in our digital capabilities. But we do have a list of things we'd like to invest in. We feel comfortable in our ability to do that while continuing to maintain our performance. I mean, there's a whole list of things we could talk about. I think you've read some of our press releases about what we're doing with autonomous vehicles, site solutions, power density, engine emission. So yes, we do have a list of things, as we always do, of items that we're investing in. But again, we're committed to do this in the environment of continuing to perform as a company financially.

我們將繼續評估投資機會以推動未來成長。我們已經討論過我們在服務領域所做的事情，這顯然是我們關注的一個重點領域，而且我們正在投資我們的數位化能力。但我們確實有一份我們想要投資的事物的清單。我們對自己做到這一點的能力感到很滿意，同時能夠繼續保持我們的業績。我的意思是，我們可以談論的事情有很多。我想您已經閱讀過我們的一些新聞稿，以了解我們在自動駕駛汽車、站點解決方案、功率密度、引擎排放方面所做的工作。是的，像往常一樣，我們確實有一個要投資的項目清單。但我們再次致力於在公司財務狀況持續良好的環境下實現這一目標。

Okay, that's helpful. And then if I could just focus for one second on Slide 11, where you talked about end market assumptions. It looks like one way, you could kind of read that as things that are sort of below normal, things that are kind of in line with normal and things that are stronger than normal. And first of all, if you'd like to dissuade me from that interpretation, feel free. But I'm curious sort of how you think of the overall business with respect to their various cycles because, clearly, the market is worried about where the industrial cycle is and whether things may be kind of midcycle or above. And I'm curious if you have an opinion as to sort of where we are overall with CAT cycles.

好的，這很有幫助。然後，如果我可以花一秒鐘看一下投影片 11，您在其中討論了終端市場假設。看起來，你可以把它理解為低於正常水平的事物、符合正常水平的事物和強於正常水平的事物。首先，如果你想勸阻我不要這樣解釋，請隨意。但我很好奇您如何看待整體業務相對於其不同周期的變化，因為顯然市場擔心的是工業週期處於什麼位置，以及情況是否可能處於中期或中期以上。我很好奇您是否對 CAT 週期的整體情況有什麼看法。

It is important to keep in mind that Caterpillar is a diverse business. And I think a lot of times they look at our business, they'll just think of construction. And that's why we took the time to go through that slide, and Joe went through that with you. So again, we -- Joe laid it out pretty well, and it's in the slide. There are certain parts of our business that are certainly below what we would consider a normal range. Some that -- and have not started to recover. We have some of that are still below what we consider a normal demand in our recovery, and we have some that are very strong, and we tried to lay that out in our slide.

重要的是要記住，卡特彼勒是一家多元化的企業。我認為很多時候他們在看我們的業務時只會想到建築。這就是我們花時間瀏覽這張投影片的原因，喬也和你們一起瀏覽了這張投影片。所以，我們 — — 喬把它闡述得非常好，而且它在幻燈片中。我們的業務中某些部分肯定低於我們認為的正常範圍。有些——還沒開始復甦。其中有些需求仍低於我們認為的復甦正常水平，而有些需求則非常強勁，我們試圖在幻燈片中列出這些需求。

I think, and to further add on to that, those end markets that are in the far right-hand column there of strong demand, I mean, if you look at EAME, while we consider it strong, and it's been growing for this last several years, it's actually still a little below sales levels that we achieved earlier this decade and well below sales levels a decade ago, kind of in the middle of the last decade. So we are seeing consistent growth in EAME, but it's not above where we were earlier, 5, 6 years ago. Save the same thing about industrial. We also see good, healthy growth. But those sales levels continue to be a little below some highs achieved a few years ago. And really, the same thing for Resource Industries. So we look at North America as very strong. That's after several years of below trend sales. We've also talked about China also being a very strong region, but we still see, if we look specifically at the 10-ton above excavator, we expect sales for that product in the industry to be below the peak that it achieved in 2011. So it's a little bit difficult to put these on an exact equilibrium. I think what we wanted to be very clear about is that the markets are in different phases of the cycle, but there still is opportunity for growth really probably across most of them.

我認為，進一步補充一點，那些位於最右側需求強勁的終端市場，我的意思是，如果您看看歐洲、非洲和中東地區，雖然我們認為它很強勁，而且它在過去幾年裡一直在增長，但實際上它仍然略低於我們本世紀初實現的銷售水平，遠低於十年前，即上個十年中期的銷售水平。因此，我們看到歐洲、非洲和中東地區持續成長，但並未高於五、六年前的水準。關於工業，保存同樣的事情。我們也看到了良好、健康的成長。但這些銷售水準仍略低於幾年前達到的一些高點。事實上，資源產業也存在著同樣的情況。因此我們認為北美的實力非常強大。這是在銷售連續幾年低於趨勢水平之後發生的。我們也談到中國也是一個非常強大的地區，但我們仍然看到，如果我們特別關注10噸以上的挖掘機，我們預計該產品在該行業的銷量將低於2011年的峰值。因此，要讓它們達到精確的平衡有點困難。我想我們想要明確的是，雖然市場處於週期的不同階段，但大多數市場可能仍有成長機會。

Yes, and this is Joe. Just exactly what you said, Amy. I agree, it wasn't intended. You can't take the far right column and say everything in there is above midcycle. That wasn't the intent. It was just the intent to say we're getting strong demand on those products, right? And we're seeing demand, and that we are diverse, and that we have industries that are in various stages of recovery at the moment.

是的，這是喬。正如你所說，艾米。我同意，這不是故意的。你不能拿最右邊的一欄說裡面的內容都高於週期中期。那不是我們的本意。我們只是想說這些產品的需求很強烈，對嗎？我們看到了需求，我們是多元化的，我們所在的產業目前正處於不同的復甦階段。

And one of the things we're pleased with is that our record financial performance, even though we have a number of our key markets that are quite weak. Offshore oil and gas, when we talked about, is quite weak. New locomotives is weak. Mining's improving, but it's still well below what we consider a normal level. So again, the fact that we're turning in record performance with those key markets where they are is something we feel good about.

令我們感到高興的事情之一是，儘管我們的一些主要市場表現相當疲軟，但我們的財務表現仍創下了歷史新高。我們談到的海上石油和天然氣相當薄弱。新型機車動力較弱。採礦業正在改善，但仍遠低於我們認為的正常水平。因此，我們在這些主要市場取得了創紀錄的業績，這讓我們感到非常高興。

Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan.

今天的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan。

JPMorgan. I've got a quick clarification question and then my real question. So the clarification question is just on your revised guidance, what's embedded in that for share repurchases? Because originally, you did not have any share repurchases in your guidance. So if you could just tell is the first half that's done and over? Or have you embedded any share repurchases into the back half?

摩根大通。我有一個快速澄清的問題，然後是我的真正問題。因此，需要澄清的問題只是關於您修訂後的指南，其中包含哪些關於股票回購的內容？因為最初你的指導中沒有任何股票回購。那麼您是否能說出上半部已經結束了？或者你們在後半部嵌入了任何股票回購嗎？

Yes, you're correct, Ann. We typically have not forecasted share repurchase. In our -- the guide that we put out there, the adjusted profit per share of $11 to $12, we have assumed, as Joe said, that we would be fairly consistent in the second half with share repurchases as we were in the first half. So 1.25 in the first half, call it 2, 2.5 in the second half, or 2.5, I guess, would be...

是的，你是對的，安。我們通常不會預測股票回購。在我們發布的指導中，調整後的每股利潤為 11 至 12 美元，正如喬所說，我們假設下半年的股票回購將與上半年保持相當一致。所以上半場是 1.25，可以稱為 2，下半場是 2.5，或者我猜是 2.5，應該是...

For the full year...

全年...

But that's not embedded in the 11...

但這並未嵌入在 11 中...

Sorry. I'm sorry. Thanks for the...

對不起。對不起。謝謝...

Look similar, 2.5-ish in that range for the full year.

看起來很相似，全年都在 2.5 左右。

Thank you for the clarification, Joe. I will say, Ann, I want to set back. I mean, that is a broad range, and so we have played that in. But there is a number of variables we've got played into that range of $11 to $12 of adjusted profit per share.

謝謝你的澄清，喬。我會說，安，我想退後一步。我的意思是，這是一個很廣泛的範圍，所以我們已經將其發揮到了極致。但在調整後每股利潤 11 美元至 12 美元這一範圍內，我們已經考慮了許多變數。

Okay. And then I appreciate the clarification. My question then turns to China and your outlook for excavator sales. You had guided plus 30%, and you had called that the cycle was above normal this year. And that's why you were being cautious. Now we're up 70% year-to-date. What's your recent thinking on excavator sales in China going forward, particularly in light of some of the policy easing that the government's doing to help support PPS and things like that? What's your latest thoughts on the market there?

好的。我很感激你的澄清。我的問題轉向中國以及你們對挖土機銷售的前景。您曾預測會出現 30% 的成長，而且您還稱今年的周期高於正常水平。這就是你如此謹慎的原因。今年迄今，我們的業績已上漲 70%。您最近對中國挖土機銷售前景有何看法，尤其是考慮到政府為支持PPS等而出台的一些政策放寬？您對那裡的市場最新看法是什麼？

Yes. So for China, in the first quarter, we talked about the 10-ton and above excavator demand for the industry being up about 30%. We now have that forecast up about 40%, so we've raised that expectation for the rest of the year. That industry class is up 70% year-to-date. So that does imply that there will be slowing growth in the back half of the year. If you recall, the back half of 2017 felt some pretty significant growth levels. And so the comp gets to be quite difficult. We do expect this year for China sales to have more normal seasonal patterns. So while in the second half of last year, China sales were higher than the first half, that's a bit unusual. We expect more of the 60-40; 60% of sales in the first half of the year, 40% in the back half of the year, Ann.

是的。因此對於中國而言，在第一季度，我們談到了該行業對 10 噸及以上挖掘機的需求增長了約 30%。現在，我們將這項預測上調了約 40%，因此，我們上調了對今年剩餘時間的預期。今年迄今，該行業類別已成長 70%。所以這確實意味著今年下半年經濟成長將會放緩。如果你還記得的話，2017 年下半年的成長水準相當顯著。因此比賽變得相當困難。我們確實預計今年中國的銷售將呈現更正常的季節性模式。因此，雖然去年下半年中國銷售額高於上半年，但這有點不尋常。我們預期60-40的比例更高；安，上半年的銷售額佔 60%，下半年佔 40%。

And your thoughts on the ongoing outlook just based on what you're seeing infrastructure-wise in China?

您是否認為，根據您對中國基礎建設現況的觀察，未來前景如何？

They continue to be active. We continue to feel good about our end markets. We do have some dealer inventory to grow in China. I think we continue to keep an eye on what's a pretty dynamic environment.

他們繼續活躍。我們繼續對我們的終端市場感到樂觀。我們在中國確實有一些經銷商庫存可供成長。我認為我們會繼續關注這個相當活躍的環境。

Our next question today is coming from David Raso.

今天的下一個問題來自 David Raso。

Evercore ISI. Back to Slide 11 on the end market outlook.

Evercore ISI。回到投影片 11，了解最終市場前景。

Yes.

是的。

And I know you feel very confidently about the categories that are in the strong demand area, which is all well and good. But if you can maybe bless these numbers, I'm just curious. Even the businesses that are in the strong demand area, I'm coming up with, at most, they're 45% to 50% of revenues and probably a little bit lower than that on operating profit, call it, 40% to 45% on a normalized basis. So I'm just trying to understand, is that the right way to the look at it? I mean, yes, the strong demand businesses are areas that you still feel good about and they can grow. But even without that, you have the first 2 categories in the left that are the majority of sales and earnings. Is that a fair way to just assume how we're supposed to read that break? I know you don't give all those businesses exactly by sales and revenues, but obviously, I tried to take a stab at it. Can you help with that question and sanity check that thought?

我知道您對需求強勁的類別非常有信心，這一切都很好。但如果你也許可以認可這些數字，我只是很好奇。我認為，即使是處於強勁需求領域的業務，最多也只佔收入的 45% 到 50%，而營業利潤可能略低一些，也就是 40% 到 45%（正常情況下）。所以我只是想了解，這是正確的看法嗎？我的意思是，是的，強勁需求的業務是你仍然感覺良好並且可以成長的領域。但即使沒有這個，左邊的前兩個類別也佔據了銷售額和收益的大部分。這是否是假設我們應該如何解讀這中斷的公平方法？我知道您不會給出所有這些業務的確切銷售額和收入，但顯然，我嘗試了一下。您能幫助解答這個問題並檢查這個想法嗎？

I mean, this is Joe. I would say I don't have those figures in front of me, and we wouldn't -- we don't normally disclose them in that way. And keep in mind, they'll vary depending on where these businesses move around on this chart, right? But I think you're thinking about it in a correct way. Our point is, as Jim mentioned earlier, right, if you think about the record performance that we're turning in from our operating and running the company, and we feel good about that, relative to a significant portion of our business that's still in the recovering or early stages of recovery, are still operating at pretty low levels. So we feel like not all of our markets are synchronized at this point, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.

我的意思是，這是喬。我想說我面前並沒有這些數字，而且我們通常不會以那種方式透露這些數據。請記住，它們會根據這些企業在圖表上的移動位置而變化，對嗎？但我認為你的想法是正確的。我們的觀點是，正如吉姆之前提到的那樣，如果你想想我們在運營公司過程中所取得的創紀錄的業績，我們對此感到滿意，相對於我們業務中仍然處於復甦或復甦初期的很大一部分，它們仍然在相當低的水平上運營。因此，我們感覺目前並非所有市場都是同步的，但這不一定是壞事。

Again, just to make sure. So the majority of your sales on EBIT are in those first 2 categories called slow to recover and recovering, and less than 50% of strong demand? I know you're saying those can grow beyond, but just making sure we roughly frame it. Is that a fair generalization?

再次確認一下。那麼，你們的息稅前利潤中的大部分銷售額都屬於前兩類，即復甦緩慢和復甦中，而強勁需求的佔比不到 50%？我知道您說這些可以超越，但只是確保我們大致了解它。這是一個公平的概括嗎？

Yes, I don't know, Amy, if you have -- I don't know if you would frame it that way, but...

是的，我不知道，艾米，如果你有——我不知道你是否會這樣說，但是......

Yes, David, I don't have those numbers in front of me, so I'd be hesitant to frame it that way. I mean, I think we could go back and look at that. It should be relatively easy to calculate. But sitting here while you're talking, I just -- I don't have that number in front of me, so I'm cautious to confirm it. It doesn't...

是的，大衛，我面前沒有這些數字，所以我不太願意用這種方式來表達。我的意思是，我認為我們可以回頭看看那件事。計算起來應該比較容易。但是當你說話的時候，我坐在這裡，只是——我面前沒有這個數字，所以我很謹慎地確認它。它不...

That's fine. We can go into the detail off-line. And then lastly, the comment you had about second half operating margins being similar to the first quarter. To hit your EPS number, it seems to be implying the back half of the year, the sales growth is roughly 13%. And just given the order book is up 27%, at least the implied order book, the way I count it up, over 27%; the backlog's up over 20%. A, is there something about your ability to take these orders and backlog and execute on them in the back half of the year that would suggest you'd want to be able to grow really anywhere close to the order book strength in the backlog? Or is it just as we'll discuss future guidance when it comes up in the next quarter or 2. I'm just trying to make sure I understand why would the sales growth be that much that's the way in the second half than your backlog in order growth.

沒關係。我們可以離線討論細節。最後，您說下半年的營業利潤率與第一季相似。為了達到您的每股盈餘數字，這似乎意味著今年下半年的銷售額成長約為 13%。鑑於訂單簿增加了 27%，至少隱含的訂單簿，以我的方式計算，超過了 27%；積壓量增加了20%以上。答：您是否有能力在下半年接收這些訂單和積壓訂單並執行它們，這表明您希望能夠真正接近積壓訂單的實力？或者就像我們將在下一季或第二季討論未來指導時一樣。我只是想確保我理解為什麼下半年的銷售成長會比積壓訂單成長那麼多。

Yes. So I want to keep in mind, David, that one of the things we did this quarter is put the outlook out there, adjusted profit per share of $11 to $12, which reflects several variables that we think could be more or less favorable. We wanted to reflect a reasonable range that we think we can fall within. I do want to clarify one of your comments, which is we expect second half operating margins to be pretty similar to the first half, not necessarily the first quarter, but pretty similar to the first half.

是的。因此，大衛，我想記住，我們本季所做的事情之一就是公佈了前景，調整後的每股利潤為 11 至 12 美元，這反映了我們認為可能或多或少有利的幾個變數。我們希望反映出我們認為可以達到的合理範圍。我確實想澄清您的一條評論，即我們預計下半年的營業利潤率將與上半年非常相似，不一定與第一季相同，但與上半年非常相似。

Yes, if I misspoke, I apologize...

是的，如果我說錯了，我很抱歉......

Yes, yes. Just -- yes, no, I just wanted to clarify that.

是的，是的。只是——是的，不，我只是想澄清這一點。

I meant to say second half -- the first half was 17 2.; second half, if you assume 17 2, that's roughly the implied sales growth. That's all I'm implying.

我的意思是說下半場——上半場是17 2。 ；下半年，如果假設為 17 2，這大致就是隱含的銷售成長率。這就是我所暗示的全部內容。

Yes. So I think if you walk through the segments and if we're talking about volume specifically. And again, I think as we continue to work through supply chain challenges, we'll get some more clarity as the rest of the year plays itself out. But as we see it today, Resource Industries does continue to ramp production across many of their product lines. And we would expect that -- Energy & Transportation, we would expect to have really more -- we are seeing strength in the onshore oil and gas application, which is a piece of their portfolio. But we would expect more normal seasonality first half, second half for Energy & Transportation. And with that expected seasonality in Construction Industries, with China kind of 60-40 split, even though we continue to see growing demand in some of the other regions, we would, I think, expect Construction Industries to be more or less pretty even on sales first half over second half. And again, to clarify, there is still some runway to play out for the rest of the year. We do continue to work through supply chain challenges. But on a kind of broader perspective, that's kind of how we're thinking about volumes for the rest of the year.

是的。所以我認為如果你看一下各個部分並且我們具體談論的是數量。而且，我認為，隨著我們繼續努力解決供應鏈挑戰，隨著今年剩餘時間的進展，我們將獲得更清晰的認識。但正如我們今天所看到的，資源工業確實繼續提高其許多產品線的產量。我們預計——能源和交通運輸領域將會有更多——我們看到陸上石油和天然氣應用領域的實力，這是他們投資組合的一部分。但我們預計上半年和下半年能源和運輸業的季節性將更加正常。由於建築業預期的季節性，中國市場約佔 60% 至 40% 的比例，儘管我們繼續看到其他一些地區的需求不斷增長，但我認為，我們預計建築業上半年的銷售額將與下半年相比大致持平。再次澄清一下，今年剩餘時間我們還有一些工作要做。我們確實會繼續努力解決供應鏈挑戰。但從更廣泛的角度來看，這就是我們對今年剩餘時間銷售的看法。

Okay. But to be clear, the supply chain isn't the reason, if that math is correct, to suggest why the growth should be much lower than order books and backlogs, right? I'm just making sure we're not trying to quietly highlight that much of a strength on the backlog and orders turning into sales in the back half. And you're saying some constraint, but that's not what you're trying to say.

好的。但要先明確的是，如果這個計算是正確的話，供應鏈並不是導致成長率遠低於訂單和積壓量的原因，對嗎？我只是想確保我們不會試圖悄悄地強調下半年積壓訂單和訂單轉化為銷售的優勢。你說了一些限制，但這不是你想說的。

Yes, that's correct. That would be the correct assumption, David.

是的，正確。那是正確的假設，大衛。

Our next question today is coming from Joel Tiss.

今天的下一個問題來自喬爾·蒂斯。

I'm with BMO. So I just wondered if there's any signaling at all from increasing the share repurchase that acquisitions are less of a priority, or maybe they're expensive, or just any color you can help us with there.

我是 BMO 的。所以我只是想知道，增加股票回購是否表明收購不再是優先事項，或者收購成本可能很高，或者您能為我們提供任何幫助。

Yes, we weren't trying to imply anything there. So we continually evaluate M&A opportunities. And -- but we also have talked about our desire to return cash to shareholders. So we're not trying to imply anything there.

是的，我們並不是想暗示任何事。因此我們不斷評估併購機會。而且——但我們也談到了向股東返還現金的願望。所以我們並不是想暗示任何事。

Yes. I mean, as we said in the prepared remarks, our results are strong. We're in a strong financial position, and we think we're in a position to do both.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們的業績非常好。我們的財務狀況良好，我們認為我們有能力實現這兩點。

And I just wonder, following up on that, can you give us just kind of range for the free cash flow for the full year? And what was behind this accrued wages and salaries and employee benefits that it had a negative swing of about $1.4 billion year-over-year? And I just wondered if there's any big chunks in there that we should be aware of.

我只是想知道，您能否給我們全年自由現金流的範圍？那麼，這筆應計工資和員工福利與去年同期相比出現了約 14 億美元的負增長，背後的原因是什麼？我只是想知道其中是否有一些我們應該注意的大塊內容。

Yes, sure. Joel, as you know, we don't provide a free cash flow outlook. But you are correct, we did have the accrued wages increase, and that has to do with 2017 short-term incentive compensation, which we pay a quarter in arrears. And so the 2017 short-term incentive compensation, which I think was about $1.4 billion, we paid in March of 2018. And that's compared to $200 million to $300 million. I think it was about $250 million for 2016 short-term incentive compensation that we paid in the first quarter of 2017. So that $1.2 billion difference will explain most of that change.

是的，當然。喬爾，如你所知，我們不提供免費現金流前景。但您說得對，我們的應計工資確實增加了，這與 2017 年的短期激勵薪酬有關，我們已拖欠了一個季度才支付。因此，2017 年的短期激勵薪酬（我認為約為 14 億美元）是我們在 2018 年 3 月支付的。相比之下，這一數字為 2 億至 3 億美元。我認為我們在 2017 年第一季支付的 2016 年短期激勵薪酬約為 2.5 億美元。因此，12 億美元的差額可以解釋大部分變化。

And that's not going to mean that the free cash flow in 2018 is somewhat a little bit below 2017 levels?

這是否意味著 2018 年的自由現金流略低於 2017 年的水準？

Well, I think we would expect -- again, we don't have a free cash flow forecast. But we do expect operating profit at $11 to $12 versus $6.88 last year. We would have significantly higher operating profit. And that one issue around the payment of short-term incentive compensation expense won't repeat itself. That was a first quarter issue.

嗯，我想我們會期望——再說一次，我們沒有自由現金流預測。但我們預計營業利潤將達到 11 至 12 美元，去年同期為 6.88 美元。我們的營業利潤將大幅提高。支付短期激勵薪酬費用的問題不會重演。這是第一季的問題。

Our next question today is coming from Jamie Cook.

今天的下一個問題來自傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)。

I guess, 2 questions. One, can you just talk about the level of visibility you have in 2019 relative to as we were sitting here last year. You noted a couple of times good visibility in oil and gas and mining. So I was hoping that you could just put some color around that maybe in terms of lead times. And then my second question, what is your approach to pricing with some of these longer lead time products, in particular, when we have material cost headwinds? I'm just -- don't want to get concerned that price in that cost could be a headwind in '19 without getting too far out.

我想，有兩個問題。首先，您能否談談相對於去年，2019 年的能見度水平如何？您多次提到石油、天然氣和採礦業的能見度良好。所以我希望你能從交貨時間方面對此做出一些說明。然後我的第二個問題是，對於這些較長交貨期的產品，您採取什麼定價方法，特別是當我們面臨材料成本阻力時？我只是——不想擔心成本中的價格可能會在 19 年成為阻力，而且不會走得太遠。

Yes, Jamie, this is Jim. So as we mentioned earlier, we are building some backlog in '19 for oil and gas and mining. To answer your specific question, going back to Slide 11, one of the areas that has been slow certainly this year is offshore oil and gas. In solar, for example, we are seeing increased quoting activity, which is a positive sign, and that has to translate into specific orders. But if, in fact, oil prices stay strong and CapEx increases for the IOCs and NOCs, it wouldn't be unreasonable for us to see increased sales in 2019 in offshore oil and gas for solar. Again, mining, we are seeing increased activity, increased quotation activity, and that's all a positive thing. A lot of -- and on the pricing question, obviously, a lot of variables go into pricing. That's a competitive market. We make decisions based on -- using the O&E Model based on the specific market and the specific geographic area. But I wouldn't be overly concerned in 2019 with the price cost equation.

是的，傑米，這是吉姆。正如我們之前提到的，我們在 2019 年為石油、天然氣和採礦業累積了一些訂單。為了回答您的具體問題，讓我們回到第 11 張投影片，今年發展緩慢的領域之一就是海上石油和天然氣。例如，在太陽能領域，我們看到報價活動增加，這是一個積極的信號，必須轉化為具體的訂單。但事實上，如果油價保持堅挺，且國際石油公司和國家石油公司的資本支出增加，那麼我們看到 2019 年海上石油和太陽能天然氣銷售額增加也就不足為奇了。再次，我們看到採礦活動增加，報價活動增加，這都是一件積極的事情。關於定價問題，顯然有很多變數會影響定價。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們根據特定市場和特定地理區域的 O&E 模型做出決策。但在 2019 年，我不會太擔心價格成本方程式。

Yes. And just to add a little bit there, Jamie. I think -- this is Joe. We're -- input cost is one of many factors that goes into the pricing decision, as Jim said. And keep in mind, as we look at our input costs, we have a lot of levers to try to offset those, as we said, this year, even continuing to use the Operating & Execution Model, executing our strategy, staying disciplined on the cost control operational excellence. So I want -- while it's one factor, I want to make sure we're not just sort of ring fencing price, input costs, ratio. I know it's something that we look at. But we will use that as we look at pricing into 2019. Input costs will be a big factor in what we're looking at heading into next year.

是的。我再補充一點，傑米。我想——這是喬。正如吉姆所說，投入成本是影響定價決策的眾多因素之一。請記住，當我們審視我們的投入成本時，我們有很多槓桿來嘗試抵消這些成本，正如我們今年所說的那樣，甚至繼續使用營運和執行模型，執行我們的策略，在成本控制卓越營運方面保持紀律。所以我想要——雖然這是一個因素，但我想確保我們不僅僅是限制價格、投入成本和比率。我知道這是我們正在關注的事情。但我們在考慮2019年的定價時會用到它。投入成本將成為我們考慮明年的重要因素。

And there's various elements going to our costs, of course. And if, in fact, the costs are being driven by higher commodity prices, generally, for Caterpillar, that's a good thing, not a bad thing.

當然，我們的成本受到多種因素的影響。如果成本確實是由大宗商品價格上漲所致，那麼對於卡特彼勒來說，這通常是一件好事，而不是壞事。

Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer.

今天的下一個問題來自 Rob Wertheimer。

It's Melius Research. I had the questions really on dealer inventory. And the simple question is just, do you feel like dealers have the right inventory? Is it too high overall? Is it too low overall? And maybe a structural question, if you would, just give us look under the hood. I mean, a year or so ago, your dealers probably didn't know that you could execute as well as you have into a sharp upcycle in a lot of end markets. And so I wonder how your dealers are feeling about the responsiveness of your production system and what that kind of means for smoothness in the system overall.

這是 Melius Research。我確實對經銷商庫存有疑問。這個簡單的問題是，您是否覺得經銷商擁有合適的庫存？整體來說是不是太高了？整體來說是不是太低了？也許這是一個結構性問題，如果你願意的話，請讓我們深入了解一下。我的意思是，大約一年前，您的經銷商可能還不知道您能夠在眾多終端市場的急劇上升週期中表現得如此出色。所以我想知道您的經銷商對於您們生產系統的響應能力有何感受，以及這對整個系統的平穩性意味著什麼。

Rob, I'll start. When you look at dealer inventory, we have been able to add a little over of $1 billion in dealer inventory, most of that in Construction Industries through the first half of the year to support what are higher demand levels. Even with that, where we target with the dealer is for dealer inventory, we're at the low end of our month of sales range. So I'm sure that there are pockets where dealers would like to have some more inventory. We continue to work with them there. But I think, broadly, we are within that range. We feel good about that. Ultimately, that is the dealers' decision. We are seeing, as we continue to talk about, really strong demand. Our facilities continue to ramp production to keep up with customer demand. But overall, I'd say, when we look at where dealer inventory is, we're very pleased with our ability to increase it through the first half of this year and at the level it is in terms of total months of sales. Does that answer your question?

羅布，我先開始了。當您查看經銷商庫存時，我們已經能夠增加超過 10 億美元的經銷商庫存，其中大部分是在上半年的建築業，以支援更高的需求水準。即便如此，我們針對經銷商的目標是經銷商庫存，我們的月銷售範圍仍處於低端。因此我確信經銷商會希望擁有更多的庫存。我們繼續在那裡與他們合作。但我認為，總體而言，我們處於這個範圍內。我們對此感到很高興。最終，這是經銷商的決定。正如我們繼續談論的那樣，我們看到了非常強勁的需求。我們的工廠不斷提高產量以滿足客戶的需求。但總體而言，我想說，當我們查看經銷商庫存時，我們對今年上半年能夠增加庫存以及總月銷售量達到的水平感到非常滿意。這回答了你的問題嗎？

It does.

是的。

Our next question today is coming from Mike Shlisky.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Mike Shlisky。

It's Seaport Global. So wanted to ask about rail. I know you said in your slide that, that market on the new site is still pretty slow to recover. You did also note in your comments that there were some stronger order trends. So can you give us a sense as to whether you already see, given the order trends, a clear path towards your locomotive recovery over the next couple of quarters? Or any kind of statistic as to the timing as to when that might get better?

它是 Seaport Global。所以想問一下有關鐵路的問題。我知道您在幻燈片中說過，新網站的市場恢復仍然相當緩慢。您也在評論中指出，存在一些更強勁的訂單趨勢。那麼，您能否告訴我們，根據訂單趨勢，您是否已經看到了未來幾季機車復甦的明確路徑？或者有任何關於何時情況會好轉的統計數據嗎？

Yes. We've seen -- I think what we've talked about is we've seen certain indicators, certainly on our services end that has improved. New locomotives in North America has been slow, but some of the leading indicators there are the number of stored locomotives is reducing, which it is. That tends to be a positive sign and a leading indicator. So again, we think that the signs are positive.

是的。我們已經看到——我想我們已經談論的是，我們已經看到了某些指標，當然在我們的服務方面已經有所改善。北美新機車的成長一直很緩慢，但一些領先指標顯示儲存的機車數量正在減少，事實確實如此。這往往是一個正面的訊號和領先指標。因此，我們再次認為這些跡像是正面的。

And we are seeing, as I mentioned also in the prepared remarks, we are seeing orders for locomotive rebuilds. So that is also another positive sign that activity's picking up.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們看到了機車重建的訂單。這也是活動正在回升的另一個正面訊號。

Okay. And then just secondly, as a follow-up on that. If you do start to see some more newbuilds of locomotives, is there any kind of major mix shift that we should be thinking about if that were to happen as far as the overall E&T margins?

好的。其次，作為對此的後續跟進。如果您確實開始看到更多新建機車，那麼就整體 E&T 利潤率而言，我們是否應該考慮發生任何類型的重大組合變化？

I think when you look at that E&T business, it is such a diversified business that there are always lots of puts and takes. And if you look at where their operating margins have been delivering, they tend to be pretty consistent. Sometimes a little lumpy based on some significant deliveries. But that is a very diversified portfolio, I think, which I don't think it's really all that significant to put any too much focus on a particular piece of it. They'll see lots of movements in any quarter.

我認為，當您審視 E&T 業務時，您會發現它是一項多元化業務，總是存在大量的損失和收益。如果你觀察他們的營業利潤率，你會發現它們往往非常穩定。有時會因一些重要的交付而出現一些不平穩的情況。但我認為這是一個非常多樣化的投資組合，我認為沒有必要把過多的注意力放在其中的某一特定部分。他們會看到各方面的大量動向。

Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich.

今天的下一個問題來自傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。

It's Goldman Sachs. I'm wondering if you could talk about why pricing turned negative in Construction Industries for you folks this quarter given where lead times are, input cost inflation, it's just surprising to see the negative price realization. Maybe you could give us some context on what drove that. And earlier, you folks mentioned that price cost for the company should be neutral to positive in '19. Does that imply for Construction Industries, specifically?

這是高盛。我想知道您是否可以談談為什麼本季建築業的價格出現負成長，考慮到交貨時間、投入成本通膨，看到負價格的實現實在令人驚訝。也許您可以向我們介紹一下導致這現象的原因。之前，你們提到過，19 年公司的價格成本應該保持中性到正值。這對建築業來說具體意味著什麼？

Yes. So for the first, Jerry, like I said, Construction Industries is competing in a very competitive market. That said, we're very pleased with their operating margin in the quarter. They had record quarterly operating profit, and they continue to be focused on growth. Some of the confusion, I think, if we step back, and to clarify it a little bit. And I talked about this a little bit with Joe O'Dea, is there is a bit of a time lag. So Construction Industries sales variances are often given at the time -- or given after the time of sale to a customer. They're post-sale sales variances, and so there can be a delay from when we ship a product to the dealer and then when we true up all those sales variances to the customer. So that's a piece of it. And that the process of that working through the system will give us some lag into the back half of the year. We'll start to see price realization turn positive in the fourth quarter. I also think if you step back and you look at where second and third quarter price realization was for Construction Industries, last year, it was very, very favorable. And so they're coming off of extremely favorable comps from a year ago. On the price cost, I think we said price cost would be favorable into 2019. I think to clarify that, we haven't given any 2019 guidance. But as we step back and look at price assumption and material cost assumption, we do expect them to be favorable, both for the full year and in the second half. Was that -- I think that answers your question.

是的。首先，傑瑞，就像我說的，建築業正在一個競爭非常激烈的市場中競爭。話雖如此，我們對本季的營業利潤率非常滿意。他們的季度營業利潤創下了紀錄，並且繼續專注於成長。我認為，如果我們退一步思考，稍微澄清一下，就會發現有些令人困惑的事情。我與喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea) 討論過這個問題，是否存在一些時間差。因此，建築業的銷售差異通常在銷售時給出——或在銷售給客戶之後給出。它們是售後銷售差異，因此從我們將產品運送給經銷商到我們將所有銷售差異告知客戶之間可能會有延遲。這就是其中的一部分。而且透過系統運作的過程會為我們在下半年帶來一些延遲。我們將開始看到價格實現在第四季轉為正值。我還認為，如果您回顧一下並看看去年建築行業第二季度和第三季度的價格實現情況，您會發現價格非常非常有利。因此，與一年前相比，他們的業績非常有利。關於價格成本，我認為我們說過 2019 年的價格成本將會有好處。我想澄清一下，我們還沒有給出任何 2019 年的指導。但當我們退一步來看看價格假設和材料成本假設時，我們確實預計它們將是有利的，無論是全年還是下半年。那是——我想這回答了你的問題。

Yes. And then you folks laid out on Slide 12 your margin performance has been really strong early in the cycle. As we think about the operating and execute plan across the enterprise, how much of a benefit is in the run rate results that we're seeing now versus what's in front of us? Can we just discuss that conceptually?

是的。然後你們在第 12 張投影片上展示了你們的利潤表現在周期早期一直非常強勁。當我們思考整個企業的營運和執行計劃時，我們現在看到的運作率結果與我們面臨的情況相比有多大的好處？我們可以僅從概念上討論一下嗎？

So I want to make sure I understand a question. So Slide 12 is all historic performance. So the column in there is trailing 12 months back in July of last year. So can you clarify your question on...

所以我想確保我理解了一個問題。投影片 12 全部是歷史性的表現。因此，其中的列是自去年 7 月以來的 12 個月前的數據。那麼您能澄清一下您的問題嗎？

Sure. So you're at the high end or above your midcycle margin targets across the segments at sales levels that are in line to below midcycle. So clearly, the margin performance has been really strong so far in the cycle. So as we think about the operate and execute plan, clearly, a big driver of the benefit so far. How big is the opportunity that's in front of us as you folks look at those plans across the enterprise?

當然。因此，您的各個細分市場的銷售水準都處於中期利潤目標的高端或以上，並且與中期利潤目標持平或低於中期利潤目標。顯然，到目前為止，利潤率表現一直非常強勁。因此，當我們考慮營運和執行計劃時，顯然，這是迄今為止帶來利益的一大驅動力。當你們縱觀整個企業所製定的計畫時，我們面前的機會有多大？

Like Jim said, I think the way we would think about that is we're always trying to improve part of the strategy as operational excellence. And if the sales were to continue to go higher, we would also look to try to have a little more operating leverage. But the heart of the O&E Model is trying to grow our business profitably. So we're really focused on also growing. At the same time, there's no one answer there. It's a balance that we try to keep in check of growth versus the margin side of things. But we're really happy with where we're at right now and feel good about where we're heading.

就像吉姆所說的，我認為我們思考這個問題的方式是，我們總是試圖將部分策略改進為卓越營運。如果銷售額繼續走高，我們也會嘗試獲得更多的經營槓桿。但 O&E 模式的核心是努力實現業務的獲利成長。因此，我們也真正注重發展。但同時，卻沒有一個答案。我們試圖在成長與利潤之間保持平衡。但我們對於目前的狀況感到非常滿意，並且對於未來的發展充滿信心。

And just to clarify, Jerry, because I think there is a fair bit of confusion sometimes about those Investor Day sales ranges. We did not call those midcycle sales ranges. We called those achievable sales levels. And so we weren't calling or declaring the cycle. And I think that is causing some confusion about where we are today, and we wanted to talk through that on Slide 11. But I do want to just kind of reiterate that Investor Day was not intended to be operating margins at midcycle. It was just a reference, an achievable sales levels that we've achieved in the past that we felt could reasonably achieve in the future. So I just wanted to clarify that point.

傑瑞，我只是想澄清一下，因為我認為有時候投資者日的銷售範圍會造成一些混淆。我們沒有將這些稱為中期銷售範圍。我們稱之為可實現的銷售水準。因此我們沒有呼叫或宣布這個週期。我認為這導致了一些對我們當前狀況的困惑，我們想在第 11 張投影片上討論這個問題。但我確實想重申一下，投資人日的目的不是要討論中期營業利益率。這只是一個參考，是我們過去所達到的銷售水平，我們認為未來也可以合理地達到。所以我只是想澄清這一點。

All right. And with that, I think that's going to have to be our last question.

好的。我想這是我們的最後一個問題了。

Well, thanks Joe and Amy. And thanks to all of you for all your questions. Just to summarize quickly here. We had a great quarter. We're implementing our strategy, and it is working. And we're very proud of our team's global -- our global team's performance. We feel good about our business and the state of our markets. Are we're very pleased to have been able to raise the outlook, and we look forward to talking to all of you next quarter. Thank you for your time.

好吧，謝謝喬和艾米。感謝大家提出的所有問題。這裡只是快速總結一下。我們度過了一個美好的季度。我們正在實施我們的策略，而且它正在發揮作用。我們對我們全球團隊的表現感到非常自豪。我們對我們的業務和市場狀況感到滿意。我們很高興能夠提高前景，我們期待下個季度與大家交談。感謝您的時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

With that, Kate, I think we'll end the call.

凱特，我想我們可以結束通話了。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。