開拓重工 (CAT) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 1Q 2018 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2018 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amy Campbell, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人、投資者關係總監艾米·坎貝爾 (Amy Campbell)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter earnings call. On the call today, I'm pleased to have our CEO, Jim Umpleby; our Group President and CFO, Brad Halverson; and our Vice President of Finance Services, Joe Creed.

謝謝你，凱特。早上好，歡迎大家參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我很高興邀請到我們的執行長 Jim Umpleby；我們的集團總裁兼財務長 Brad Halverson；以及我們的金融服務副總裁喬·克里德（Joe Creed）。

Remember, this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar Inc., and any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call, we'll be posting it in the Investors section of our caterpillar.com website. It will be in the section labeled Results Webcast.

請記住，本次通話的版權歸卡特彼勒公司所有，未經卡特彼勒書面同意，嚴禁使用、錄製或傳輸本次通話的任何部分。如果您想要今天電話會議的副本，我們會將其發佈在 caterpillar.com 網站的「投資者」部分。它將位於標有“結果網路廣播”的部分中。

This morning, we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking information. A discussion of factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections can be found in our discussion of cautionary statements and significant risks to the company's business in Item 1A. Risk Factors in the 2017 Form 10-K filed with the SEC and also in our forward-looking statements included in today's financial release. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in this morning's release and is also posted in caterpillar.com/earnings.

今天上午，我們將討論涉及風險、不確定性和假設的前瞻性訊息，這些訊息可能會導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性資訊有重大差異。有關單獨或整體上可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的因素的討論，可參見第 1A 項中對公司業務的警告性聲明和重大風險的討論。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2017 年 10-K 表格中的風險因素，以及我們今天的財務報告中的前瞻性聲明中的風險因素。非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在今天早上的發布中找到，也可在 caterpillar.com/earnings 上發布。

We're going to start the call this morning with a few words from Jim, and then Brad will walk us through the quarter results and our revised outlook, and then we will turn it back to Kate as we begin the Q&A portion of the call.

今天上午，我們將以吉姆的幾句話開始電話會議，然後布拉德將向我們介紹季度業績和我們修訂後的展望，然後我們將在電話會議的問答部分開始時將話題轉回給凱特。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

現在我將把話題交給吉姆。

Thank you, Amy. Good morning, everyone. First, I'd like to thank our global Caterpillar team for outstanding first quarter results. I'm very proud of how our team capitalized on improving market conditions to deliver a 31% increase in sales and revenues compared to the first quarter of 2017. Our team also achieved the highest first quarter profit in Caterpillar's 93-year history.

謝謝你，艾米。大家早安。首先，我要感謝卡特彼勒全球團隊的第一季出色業績。我非常自豪我們的團隊利用不斷改善的市場條件，實現與 2017 年第一季相比 31% 的銷售額和收入成長。我們的團隊也實現了卡特彼勒93年歷史上最高的第一季利潤。

We saw strength across many of our end markets in the first quarter, including higher demand for construction and mining equipment and for onshore North American oil and gas applications. We had a great start to the year, but higher sales volume wasn't the only contributor to these record first quarter results.

我們在第一季看到許多終端市場表現強勁，包括對建築和採礦設備以及北美陸上石油和天然氣應用的需求增加。我們今年有一個良好的開端，但更高的銷售量並不是第一季業績創紀錄的唯一因素。

Operational excellence, which includes safety, quality, lean principles and our commitment to control structural costs, is one of the 3 key components of our enterprise strategy. Our team kept manufacturing cost about flat in the first quarter of 2018 despite a 31% increase in sales volume over 2017, which represents excellent performance by our team.

卓越營運是我們企業策略的三大關鍵組成部分之一，其中包括安全、品質、精實原則和我們對控制結構成本的承諾。2018年第一季度，儘管銷售量比2017年增長了31%，但我們的團隊仍保持製造成本基本持平，這代表我們團隊的出色表現。

At Investor Day last September, we shared our target operating margin ranges for the company and for each business segment at reasonable sales levels that we have achieved in the recent past. These target ranges represented significant improvement compared to those achieved the last time we experienced similar sales volumes.

在去年 9 月的投資者日上，我們分享了公司和每個業務部門在近期實現的合理銷售水準下的目標營業利潤率範圍。與上次我們實現的類似銷售量相比，這些目標範圍有了顯著的改善。

While operating margins are expected to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, we are pleased that in the first quarter of 2018 Construction Industries and Resource Industries exceeded the targeted ranges communicated during Investor Day. Energy & Transportation's operating margin in the first quarter was squarely within its targeted range as was the total Caterpillar enterprise.

雖然預計營業利潤率會逐季度波動，但我們很高興看到，2018 年第一季建築業和資源業的營業利潤率超過了投資者日期間公佈的目標範圍。能源與運輸部門第一季的營業利益率與卡特彼勒整個企業的營業利潤率完全處於目標範圍內。

During the quarter, we made strategic investments in expanded offerings and services, the other 2 key components of our strategy. As we focus on delivering long-term, profitable growth and serving our customers, we will continue to make targeted investments through the remainder of the year.

在本季度，我們對擴大產品和服務（這是我們策略的另外兩個關鍵組成部分）進行了策略性投資。由於我們專注於實現長期獲利成長和服務客戶，我們將在今年剩餘時間繼續進行有針對性的投資。

Even with these additional targeted investments, we're raising our full year outlook by $2 per share, along with strong first quarter results, economic indicators generally remain positive and our backlog has grown.

即使有了這些額外的有針對性的投資，我們仍然將全年預期上調了每股 2 美元，加上第一季業績強勁，經濟指標總體保持積極，我們的積壓訂單也有所增加。

Before I turn it over to Brad, I'd like to say a few words about our refreshed cash deployment priorities. As you'll see in the slide presentation, we've made some changes in support of our enterprise strategy, but some things, like our commitment to maintain the dividend and a strong balance sheet, haven't changed. We will change how we approach funding growth and share repurchases. Our growth initiatives will be primarily in the strategic priorities of expanded offerings and services, not in factory capacity. In the first quarter, we also repurchased $500 million of common stock. Moving forward, we intend to be in the market on a fairly consistent basis to offset the impact of share dilution over time.

在將麥克風交給布萊德之前，我想先談談我們更新後的現金部署重點。正如您在幻燈片簡報中看到的，我們為支持我們的企業策略做出了一些改變，但有些事情，例如我們維持股息和強勁資產負債表的承諾，並沒有改變。我們將改變融資成長和股票回購的方式。我們的成長計畫主要集中在擴大產品和服務的策略重點上，而不是工廠產能。第一季度，我們也回購了價值 5 億美元的普通股。展望未來，我們打算以相當穩定的基礎進入市場，以抵消隨著時間的推移股權稀釋的影響。

We're off to a great start in 2018, but we also have lots of work to do. I'm confident our team will continue to execute our strategy as we move throughout the year.

2018 年我們有了一個很好的開端，但我們還有很多工作要做。我相信我們的團隊將在全年繼續執行我們的策略。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brad.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給布萊德。

Thanks, Jim. What a great quarter. The strength in the global economy as well as favorable pricing for most commodities is benefiting many of our end markets. But what is even more exciting is that all of the hard work we have done over the last several years to restructure the business along with our continued cost discipline while investing for growth helped drive impressive margins, good cash flow and a strong balance sheet.

謝謝，吉姆。這是一個非常棒的季度。全球經濟的強勁成長以及大多數商品的優惠定價使我們的許多終端市場受益。但更令人興奮的是，過去幾年我們為重組業務所做的所有努力，以及我們在投資成長的同時持續的成本控制，幫助實現了令人印象深刻的利潤率、良好的現金流和強勁的資產負債表。

The strategy is delivering on what we intended, driving profitable growth. This morning, I'm going to walk you through the financial results for the quarter and our raised 2018 profit outlook, then I will take you through our cash deployment strategy that Jim mentioned.

該策略正在實現我們的預期，推動獲利成長。今天上午，我將向您介紹本季度的財務業績和我們上調的 2018 年利潤預期，然後我將向您介紹 Jim 提到的現金部署策略。

If you'll turn to Slide 4, that's where we'll start. So let's start with the top line. Sales and revenues of $12.9 billion were up 31% from the first quarter of 2017. About half of the increase was in Construction Industries. And we continue to see strength in mining and North American onshore oil and gas for both new equipment and aftermarket parts. I will walk through more details on sales when we get to the segment slides.

請翻到投影片 4，我們就從那裡開始。那我們就從第一行開始吧。銷售額和收入為 129 億美元，較 2017 年第一季成長 31%。約有一半的成長來自建築業。我們繼續看到採礦業和北美陸上石油和天然氣在新設備和售後零件方面的強勁表現。當我們看到分段投影片時，我將詳細介紹銷售情況。

Moving on to the bottom line. We delivered record first quarter profit per share of $2.74 versus $0.32 a year ago. Note that in 2017, profit per share reflected a large restructuring charge for the closure of our Gosselies, Belgium facility. Adjusted profit per share of $2.82 in the current quarter was more than double adjusted profit per share from last year on 31% higher sales and revenues.

繼續說底線。我們第一季的每股利潤達到創紀錄的 2.74 美元，而去年同期為 0.32 美元。請注意，2017年每股利潤反映了我們關閉比利時戈斯利工廠的巨額重組費用。本季調整後每股利潤為 2.82 美元，是去年調整後每股利潤的兩倍多，銷售額和收入成長了 31%。

We ended the quarter with $7.9 billion of cash on hand and repurchased $500 million of the company's common stock. As I said, a great quarter. Let's move on to Slide 5 and we'll review operating profit.

截至本季末，我們持有 79 億美元現金，並回購了價值 5 億美元的公司普通股。正如我所說，這是一個偉大的季度。讓我們轉到投影片 5，我們將回顧營業利潤。

First quarter operating profit was $2.1 billion compared with operating profit of about $400 million in the first quarter of last year, an improvement of about $1.7 billion. Higher sales volume and the absence of the restructuring charge for Gosselies, combined with strong cost control as production volumes increase, explain the profit improvement.

第一季營業利潤為21億美元，較去年第一季營業利潤約4億美元成長約17億美元。銷售量增加、戈斯利無需承擔重組費用，再加上產量增加帶來的強大成本控制，是利潤成長的原因。

The 3 primary segments saw strong sales growth. Construction Industries, up 38% with improvements across all 4 regions. Resource Industries, up 31%, reflective of a broad industry recovery. Energy & Transportation, up 26%, seeing growth across all applications. Both strong end-user demand and favorable changes to dealer inventories drove the sales volume growth. The favorable change to dealer inventories was primarily driven by Construction Industries as the factories work to get inventory to dealers in advance of the spring selling season.

三個主要分部的銷售均實現強勁成長。建築業成長 38%，四個地區均有改善。資源產業上漲31%，反映出整體產業的復甦。能源和運輸業成長 26%，所有應用領域均成長。強勁的終端用戶需求和經銷商庫存的有利變化推動了銷售的成長。經銷商庫存的有利變化主要得益於建築業，因為工廠努力在春季銷售季節之前將庫存提供給經銷商。

As you may recall, this is normal activity for the first quarter, and we believe dealer inventories remain aligned with current demand levels. Price realization was favorable $186 million or 1.6%. Manufacturing costs were about flat in the quarter on a 31% sales and revenue growth. Lower warranty expense and a favorable impact from cost absorption were about offset by higher material and freight cost as well as higher short-term incentive compensation expense. The increase in material cost was driven largely by steel. We expect steel and other commodity cost to be a headwind all year.

您可能還記得，這是第一季的正常活動，我們相信經銷商庫存與當前需求水準保持一致。價格實現有利，達到 1.86 億美元，漲幅 1.6%。本季銷售額和收入成長 31%，製造成本基本持平。較低的保固費用和成本吸收的有利影響被較高的材料和運費成本以及較高的短期激勵薪酬費用所抵消。材料成本的上漲主要由鋼材推動。我們預計鋼鐵和其他大宗商品的成本將全年成為阻力。

However, at the end of the day, higher commodity cost benefit many of our customers, and they are one of the reasons we have seen several of our end markets begin to recover.

然而，最終，更高的商品成本使我們的許多客戶受益，這也是我們看到多個終端市場開始復甦的原因之一。

Financial Products was unfavorable $48 million, primarily due to an increase in the provision for credit losses at Cat Financial. Now let's move on to the segments starting with Construction Industries on Slide 6.

金融產品虧損 4,800 萬美元，主因是 Cat Financial 信貸損失準備增加。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 上的「建築業」開始的部分。

As I mentioned earlier, Construction Industries drove about half of the sales and revenues growth for the company this quarter. Construction Industries total sales were up 38% to $5.7 billion. Dealers preparing for the spring selling season resulted in favorable changes to dealer inventories. And we believe the increase is supported by current end-user demand. Months of sales continues to be low as it relates to inventories as you compare to historical levels.

正如我之前提到的，建築業推動了公司本季約一半的銷售和收入成長。建築業總銷售額成長 38%，達到 57 億美元。經銷商為春季銷售旺季做準備導致經銷商庫存發生了有利變化。我們相信，這一增長是由當前終端用戶的需求所支撐的。與歷史水準相比，與庫存相關的銷售月數仍然較低。

And in China, as a result of very high demand, we believe dealer inventories are at levels that are leaner than what will be sustainable. Additionally, strong global growth drove improved end-user demand across all regions.

在中國，由於需求非常高，我們認為經銷商的庫存水準低於可持續的水準。此外，強勁的全球成長推動了所有地區終端用戶需求的提高。

Order activity remained strong in the quarter, driving an increase in the backlog. If we look at each region, in North America, dealers prepared for what we expect to be a strong spring selling season, resulting in favorable changes to dealer inventory. In addition, end-user demand was higher on the strength in nonresidential, infrastructure and oil and gas construction activities, including the build-out of pipelines.

本季訂單活動依然強勁，推動積壓訂單增加。如果我們看看每個地區，在北美，經銷商為我們預計的強勁春季銷售季節做好了準備，從而導致經銷商庫存發生有利變化。此外，由於非住宅、基礎設施和石油天然氣建設活動（包括管道建設）的強勁增長，最終用戶需求也隨之增加。

Asia Pacific saw strength across the region with sales up 46%. About half of the increase was due to higher end-user demand in China, which continues to be very robust with growth in building construction and infrastructure.

亞太地區表現強勁，銷售額成長 46%。約有一半的成長是由於中國終端用戶需求的增加，中國建築業和基礎建設的成長持續保持強勁。

EAME sales benefit from favorable changes to dealer inventory, a stronger euro and higher end-user demand. Europe is experiencing high business confidence and robust growth, and the commodity-producing countries of Africa and the Middle East are experiencing some stabilization, which we believe is encouraging investment in infrastructure and building construction.

歐洲、非洲和中東地區的銷售受益於經銷商庫存的有利變化、歐元走強和終端用戶需求的增加。歐洲商業信心高漲，經濟成長強勁，非洲和中東的商品生產國也正在經歷一定程度的穩定，我們認為這將鼓勵對基礎設施和建築的投資。

Latin America, while still at historically low levels, is starting to improve with sales up 38%. Stabilizing economic conditions and improving commodity prices are driving investment and construction activities.

拉丁美洲雖然仍處於歷史較低水平，但已開始好轉，銷售額成長了 38%。經濟狀況穩定、大宗商品價格回升，帶動投資和建設活動。

Construction Industries segment profit of $1.1 billion was about $500 million more than last year and segment margins improved 4.2 points to 19.7%. Higher sales volume and favorable price realization contributed to the profit improvement. These were partially offset by higher cost for SG&A and R&D, material and freight. SG&A and R&D expenses were up due to higher short-term incentive compensation expense and targeted investments to grow the business. Let's move to Slide 7, and we'll go through Resource Industries.

建築業部門利潤為 11 億美元，比去年增加約 5 億美元，部門利潤率提高 4.2 個百分點，達到 19.7%。銷售量的增加和優惠的價格促進了利潤的提高。這些費用被銷售、一般及行政開支、研發費用、材料和運費的增加部分抵銷。由於短期激勵薪酬費用增加和為成長業務而進行的有針對性的投資，銷售、一般及行政開支和研發開支有所增加。讓我們轉到投影片 7，討論資源產業。

Resource Industries sales of $2.3 billion increased 31% from the first quarter of last year. This was primarily due to higher end-user demand for new equipment across all regions. Strong commodity prices and improved market conditions have improved mining customers' profitability. As a result, miners are now investing in replacements for their fleet and initiating mine expansions, and this is driving improved demand for new equipment. In addition to strong demand for new equipment, demand for aftermarket parts increased as higher production levels resulted in higher machine utilization.

資源工業的銷售額為 23 億美元，較去年第一季成長 31%。這主要是由於所有地區終端用戶對新設備的需求增加。強勁的商品價格和改善的市場條件提高了礦業客戶的獲利能力。因此，礦工現在正在投資更換他們的礦機並啟動礦山擴建，這推動了對新設備的需求增加。除了對新設備的強勁需求外，由於生產水準的提高導致機器利用率的提高，對售後零件的需求也隨之增加。

Segment profit more than doubled from last year to $378 million and segment margins improved from 9.1% to 16.4%, a significant improvement and above the Investor Day range of 12% to 16%. The improvement in profit was driven by higher sales volume, favorable price realization and favorable variable manufacturing cost, primarily driven by cost absorption. Resource Industries' disciplined cost structure enabled margin improvement. These were partially offset by higher short-term incentive compensation expense and a slightly unfavorable impact from currency.

分部利潤較去年同期成長一倍以上，達到 3.78 億美元，分部利潤率從 9.1% 提高至 16.4%，這是一個顯著的進步，且高於投資者日預測的 12% 至 16% 的範圍。利潤的成長主要得益於銷售量的增加、有利的價格實現和有利的變動製造成本，而這主要得益於成本吸收。資源工業嚴格的成本結構提高了利潤率。但這些影響被更高的短期激勵薪酬費用和略微不利的金錢影響部分抵消。

Now let's move to Energy & Transportation on Slide 8. Energy & Transportation sales of $5.2 billion increased 26% from the first quarter of last year. Oil and gas, sales were up $400 million or 50%. Strength continues in North America specifically for onshore, unconventional oil and gas. While the Permian Basin is the area of highest activity, we are also seeing meaningful activity in other major basins. This continues to drive strong demand for both reciprocating engines and their associated aftermarket parts.

現在讓我們轉到第 8 張投影片上的「能源與交通運輸」。能源與交通運輸的銷售額為 52 億美元，比去年第一季成長了 26%。石油和天然氣銷售額成長 4 億美元，成長 50%。北美持續保持強勁勢頭，特別是陸上、非常規石油和天然氣。雖然二疊紀盆地是活動最活躍的地區，但我們也看到了其他主要盆地的有意義的活動。這持續推動往復式引擎及其相關售後零件的強勁需求。

In addition, while demand for new equipment for onshore and offshore drilling remains weak, demand for transmissions, pressure pumps and high-pressure flow iron to support well servicing has improved. The delivery of turbines for midstream gas compression to support the build-out of North American natural gas infrastructure remains strong.

此外，雖然對陸上和海上鑽井新設備的需求仍然疲軟，但對支援井服務的變速箱、壓力泵和高壓流鐵的需求有所改善。為支援北美天然氣基礎設施建設而提供的中游天然氣壓縮渦輪機的交付仍然強勁。

Sales into power generation were up 35% and improved in all regions. We are seeing demand increases after a multiyear downturn in sales. The largest increase was in the EAME region due to the timing of several large projects and favorable currency impacts.

發電銷售額成長了 35%，並且所有地區都有所改善。在銷售經歷多年低迷之後，我們看到需求正在增加。由於幾個大型項目的時機和有利的貨幣影響，EAME 地區的增幅最大。

Sales were up in North America from a low 2017 base due to higher sales from turbines and aftermarket parts sales for reciprocating engines. New engines and aftermarket sales for industrial applications increased 17%, largely due to improving global economic conditions with Latin America the only region that was not up. Sales in EAME were also positively impacted due to favorable currency impacts.

由於渦輪機銷量增加以及往復式發動機售後零件銷量增加，北美地區的銷量較 2017 年的低基數有所上升。新引擎和工業應用售後市場的銷售額成長了 17%，這主要歸因於全球經濟狀況的改善，而拉丁美洲是唯一沒有成長的地區。由於有利的貨幣影響，歐洲、非洲和中東地區的銷售也受到正面影響。

Transportation sales were up 13%, driven primarily by higher sales in Asia Pacific and North America for rail services. Australia is seeing good growth, including from a recent acquisition. And higher rail traffic in North America is driving demand for higher rail services. Marine was up largely due to the timing of deliveries. But the end market, especially for offshore vessels, continues to be challenged.

運輸銷售額成長 13%，主要得益於亞太地區和北美鐵路服務銷售額的成長。澳洲正經歷良好的成長勢頭，包括最近的收購。北美鐵路運輸量的增加也推動了對更高鐵路服務的需求。海運價格上漲主要是因為交貨時間的安排。但終端市場，特別是近海船舶市場，仍面臨挑戰。

Segment profit for Energy & Transportation was $874 million, up about $300 million from the first quarter of last year. And segment margins improved from 13.2% to 16.7%, which is almost in the middle of the Investor Day range at lower volume levels. E&T's profit improvement was mostly due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. These were partially offset by higher short-term incentive compensation expense and some increased spend for targeted investments. Now let's move on to the outlook on Slide 9.

能源與運輸部門利潤為 8.74 億美元，較去年第一季增加約 3 億美元。分部利潤率從 13.2% 提高到 16.7%，在交易量較低的情況下，幾乎處於投資者日利潤範圍的中間水平。E&T 利潤的成長主要得益於銷售量的增加和優惠的價格實現。這些部分被更高的短期激勵薪酬費用和一些增加的目標投資支出所抵消。現在讓我們來看看第 9 張幻燈片上的展望。

With a great start to the year and with the improvements we are seeing in many of our end markets, we are raising the full year profit per share outlook to a range of $9.75 to $10.75 and the adjusted profit per share outlook to $10.25 to $11.25, an increase of $2 per share, more than a 20% raise. If you move to Slide 10, I'll walk through the key elements of the revised outlook.

由於今年開局良好，且我們在許多終端市場看到改善，我們將全年每股利潤預期上調至 9.75 美元至 10.75 美元之間，將調整後的每股利潤預期上調至 10.25 美元至 11.25 美元，每股增加 2 美元，增幅超過 20%。如果您轉到投影片 10，我將介紹修訂後的展望的關鍵要素。

The increase in the profit outlook is driven by better-than-expected sales volume. We expect strong economic conditions to continue and for commodity prices to remain at levels that support capital investments. This is driving an improved sales outlook across the 3 primary segments.

獲利前景的上調是由於銷售量優於預期。我們預計強勁的經濟狀況將持續下去，大宗商品價格將維持在支持資本投資的水平。這將推動三個主要細分市場的銷售前景改善。

We remain focused on controlling structural costs. While we continue to invest in long-term growth initiatives to expand product and to grow services, our assumptions for these cost increases has not changed since our prior outlook. And we remain committed to a flexible and competitive cost structure and keeping structural cost under control.

我們仍然專注於控制結構性成本。雖然我們繼續投資長期成長計畫以擴大產品和服務，但我們對這些成本增加的假設自上次展望以來並沒有改變。我們將繼續致力於靈活、有競爭力的成本結構並控制結構性成本。

We've recently received lots of questions from investors about potential impacts from higher commodity prices, especially steel. The revised outlook does reflect an assumption for higher material cost. However, we have also increased our estimate for price realization, partially due to a midyear price increase. We expect this upward revision to price realization to more than offset material cost increases.

我們最近收到很多投資者的詢問，關於大宗商品價格上漲（尤其是鋼鐵價格上漲）可能帶來的影響。修改後的前景確實反映了材料成本上升的假設。然而，我們也提高了價格實現預期，部分原因是年中價格上漲。我們預計，此次價格上調將足以抵銷材料成本的上漲。

Also, as I mentioned earlier, at the end of the day, we believe higher commodity prices drive improved market conditions for many of our end markets. Lastly, on the improved profit outlook, we now expect short-term incentive compensation expense to be about $1.4 billion, nearly the same as last year.

此外，正如我之前提到的，最終我們相信大宗商品價格上漲將推動許多終端市場的市場狀況改善。最後，關於改善的利潤前景，我們現在預計短期激勵薪酬支出約為 14 億美元，與去年基本相同。

I want to take a second to discuss the implied rest of the year outlook. As you know, we do not give quarterly guidance. The first quarter was impressive with segment margins that were above our Investor Day targets for both Construction and Resource Industries. While we expect strong operating margins for the rest of the year, which is defined as within or better than the Investor Day ranges, we do not expect to repeat first quarter operating margin at the consolidated level. And let me explain what is driving some of this change.

我想花一點時間來討論一下今年剩餘時間的預期前景。如您所知，我們不提供季度指導。第一季的表現令人印象深刻，建築業和資源業的分部利潤率均高於我們投資者日的目標。雖然我們預計今年剩餘時間的營業利潤率將保持強勁，即在投資者日範圍內或更好，但我們預計營業利潤率不會重複第一季的綜合水平。讓我解釋一下推動這項改變的因素。

There were several positives in the first quarter that we would not expect to continue for the full year. The price versus material cost delta was very favorable in the first quarter and better than we expected. We expect this delta of price versus material cost to be negative for the balance of the year. However, as I stated for the full year, we expect price to more than offset material cost.

第一季出現了一些積極跡象，但我們預計這些跡像不會持續到全年。第一季價格與材料成本的差異非常有利，優於我們的預期。我們預計，今年餘下時間裡，價格與材料成本之間的差異將為負值。然而，正如我對全年的預測一樣，我們預計價格將超過材料成本。

Second, Cat inventory grew in the quarter to support higher production. Our expectation is that inventory levels will come down, which would result in unfavorable changes to cost absorption. And is often the case, the first quarter got off to a slow start for project spend. We expect the targeted investments for future growth to be higher over the remaining 3 quarters.

其次，Cat 庫存在本季成長，以支持更高的產量。我們預計庫存水準將會下降，這將導致成本吸收發生不利的變化。通常情況下，第一季的專案支出開局緩慢。我們預計，剩餘 3 個季度的未來成長目標投資將會更高。

The outlook assumes that first quarter adjusted profit per share will be the high-water mark for the year. Now let's discuss the segment sales assumptions moving to Slide 11.

該展望假設第一季調整後的每股利潤將達到今年的最高水準。現在讓我們討論第 11 張投影片中的分部銷售假設。

For Construction Industries, we expect sales up across all regions. Strong economic conditions, strength in the oil patch and funding for pipelines and state and local infrastructure investments should continue to drive robust demand in North America. Asia Pacific should remain robust with China leading the region. We now expect industry sales for the 10-ton and above excavator to be about up 30% versus last year. EAME is benefiting from strong business confidence and stability in oil prices. And while Latin America sales are still at historically low levels, economic conditions are improving.

對於建築業，我們預計所有地區的銷售額都會上升。強勁的經濟狀況、石油產量的強勁增長以及管道和州及地方基礎設施投資的資金將繼續推動北美強勁的需求。亞太地區應能保持強勁勢頭，並由中國引領該地區。我們現在預計10噸及以上挖土機的行業銷量將比去年增長30％左右。歐美地區受惠於強勁的商業信心和穩定的油價。儘管拉丁美洲的銷售額仍處於歷史低位，但經濟狀況正在改善。

For Resource Industries, favorable commodity prices and positive global economic factors has helped the financial health of our customers and improved business confidence. We expect improving profitability of our mining customers to drive higher capital expenditures for replacement and mine expansions. Strong global economic conditions should support higher sales of equipment for heavy construction and quarry and aggregate machines. Lastly, we expect production levels for our customer base to be maintained, supporting consistent aftermarket parts demand.

對於資源產業，有利的商品價格和積極的全球經濟因素有助於我們客戶的財務健康並增強了商業信心。我們預計，採礦客戶獲利能力的提高將推動替換和礦山擴建的資本支出增加。強勁的全球經濟狀況應會支持重型建築設備、採石場和骨材機械的銷售成長。最後，我們希望維持客戶群的生產水平，以支援持續的售後零件需求。

Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, stable oil prices should continue to drive strong demand for well servicing and gas compression application and rebuild activity in North America. However, demand for onshore drilling and new offshore drilling and production are expected to remain at lower levels.

能源與運輸。在石油和天然氣領域，穩定的油價將繼續推動北美對油井服務和氣體壓縮應用及重建活動的強勁需求。然而，預計陸上鑽井和新的海上鑽井和生產的需求將保持在較低水準。

After a multiyear downturn, we are seeing signs of improvement in power generation, driven largely by improving economic conditions. Good economic growth should also benefit industrial engines, and we have increased our full year sales forecast primarily due to higher projected demand in EAME.

在經歷了多年的低迷之後，我們看到了發電量改善的跡象，這主要得益於經濟狀況的改善。良好的經濟成長也將使工業引擎受益，我們上調了全年銷售預測，這主要是由於預計歐洲、非洲和中東地區的需求會增加。

Lastly, improvements in North America rail traffic and our focus on growing services is expected to drive improved sales for transportation. However, marine and new locomotive remain challenged. Let's move to Slide 12 and discuss our cash deployment strategy.

最後，北美鐵路交通的改善和我們對成長服務的關注預計將推動運輸銷售的成長。然而，船舶和新型機車依然面臨挑戰。讓我們轉到幻燈片 12 並討論我們的現金部署策略。

While not a significant change from previously communicated priorities, there are some differences I want to review. The refreshed cash deployment methodology reflects the fact that our cash priorities will vary from time to time depending on circumstances and where we are in the cycle.

雖然與之前傳達的優先事項相比沒有重大變化，但我仍然想回顧一些差異。更新後的現金部署方法反映了這樣一個事實：我們的現金優先事項將根據具體情況和我們所處的周期階段而隨時變化。

Having said that, we think about it in the following way. Our first priority is to maintain a healthy balance sheet in support of a mid-A credit rating. Next, we intend to deploy the cash necessary to run the business, described here as operational excellence and commitments. Finally, the use of discretionary cash is shown at the bottom of the chart.

話雖如此，我們可以用以下方式思考。我們的首要任務是維持健康的資產負債表，以支援中等 A 級信用評級。接下來，我們打算部署經營業務所需的現金，這裡稱之為卓越營運和承諾。最後，圖表底部顯示了可自由支配現金的使用情況。

We intend to fund profitable growth while still returning capital to shareholders. Caterpillar has paid higher dividends each of the past 24 years. Sustainable dividend growth remains a very high priority for us.

我們打算為獲利性成長提供資金，同時仍向股東返還資本。過去 24 年，卡特彼勒每年都支付更高的股息。可持續的股息成長對我們來說仍然是重中之重。

As you saw in the release, we also repurchased about $500 million of common stock in the first quarter. Our strategy for share repurchases is to be in the market more consistently with an intent to offset the impact of dilution over time.

正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們還在第一季回購了價值約 5 億美元的普通股。我們的股票回購策略是更持續地進入市場，以期隨著時間的推移抵消稀釋的影響。

In our prior cash deployment priorities, we often viewed profitable growth funding as investments in capacity. As we've said in Investor Day, we feel we have the necessary bricks and mortar capacity that we need and expect CapEx to be about $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the foreseeable future. Given our current capacity, we have refocused profitable growth funding to be in line with the new strategy. We intend to fund initiatives that drive long-term, profitable growth heavily focused in the areas of expanded offerings and services, including M&A where it makes sense.

在我們先前現金部署的重點中，我們常常將獲利性成長資金視為產能投資。正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們認為我們擁有所需的實體產能，並預計在可預見的未來資本支出將在 10 億至 15 億美元左右。鑑於我們目前的產能，我們已重新調整獲利性成長資金以符合新策略。我們打算資助那些推動長期獲利成長的舉措，並專注於擴大產品和服務領域，包括合理的併購。

Now let's turn to Slide 13 for a quick summary before we get to the Q&A. So in summary, sales and revenues were up 31%. We had a record first quarter profit per share and adjusted profit per share more than doubled from a year ago. It's a quarter that all of us are definitely proud of. The strategy is working. We are focused on structural cost control while investing for profitable growth, and we are delivering significant margin improvement.

現在，讓我們翻到投影片 13 進行快速總結，然後再進行問答環節。總而言之，銷售額和收入成長了 31%。我們第一季的每股利潤創下了歷史新高，調整後的每股利潤比去年同期增加了一倍多。這絕對是我們所有人都引以為傲的一個季度。這一策略正在發揮作用。我們專注於結構性成本控制，同時投資於獲利性成長，並實現顯著的利潤率提高。

The balance sheet is strong. Cash flow is good. And we bought back $500 million of common stock. And going forward, plan to offset dilution over time.

資產負債表強勁。現金流良好。我們回購了價值 5 億美元的普通股。並且展望未來，計劃隨著時間的推移抵消稀釋。

Lastly, improving global economic conditions and our continued focus on cost discipline enabled us to raise the 2018 outlook range by $2 per share. We are proud of the high quality financial performance in the quarter. The Caterpillar team has worked hard to reduce structural cost while investing in the business. And this quarter reflects the fruit of that tremendous effort. As we look forward, I believe the company is focused in the right areas to continue to drive future profitable growth.

最後，全球經濟狀況的改善和我們對成本控制的持續關注使我們能夠將 2018 年的預期範圍上調每股 2 美元。我們對本季的高品質財務業績感到自豪。卡特彼勒團隊在投資這項業務的同時，也努力降低結構成本。本季體現了這項巨大努力的成果。展望未來，我相信公司將專注於正確的領域，並繼續推動未來的獲利成長。

With that, I'll turn it back to you, Amy.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給你，艾米。

All right. So Kate, I think we're ready for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

好的。所以凱特，我想我們已經準備好進行電話會議的問答部分了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Jamie Cook.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook）。

Crédit Suisse. I guess 2 questions. One, some follow-up on your capital allocation priorities. I understand what you outlined. But given the lack of internal investment that you need for capacity and you said you'll repurchase shares to offset creep, but you know -- and I mean, it's still -- you're still going to have plenty of cash so I don't feel like that answers all the questions. So how do you think about a more meaningful share repurchase versus just offsetting creep? And can you talk about your view on M&A and how we should think about larger M&A over the cycle. And then my second question, given the performance that we've seen, in particular within the construction business and the resource businesses in the quarter and even last year to some degree, how do we think about the margin in those business longer term given that we're already exceeding the -- your longer-term targets that you put out in September?

瑞士信貸。我猜有 2 個問題。第一，跟進一下你的資本配置重點。我了解你所描述的內容。但考慮到你們缺乏提高產能所需的內部投資，而且你們說過你們將回購股票以抵消利潤下滑，但你們知道——我的意思是，你們仍然會有足夠的現金，所以我覺得這並不能回答所有的問題。那麼，您如何看待更有意義的股票回購而不是僅僅抵消成長放緩呢？您能否談談您對併購的看法以及我們應該如何看待整個週期中更大規模的併購？然後我的第二個問題是，鑑於我們所看到的表現，特別是本季度乃至去年的建築業務和資源業務的表現，考慮到我們已經超出了您在 9 月份提出的長期目標，我們如何看待這些業務的長期利潤率？

Jamie, this is Jim. Just starting with the M&A question. So all of our business leaders continually evaluate opportunities for M&A, nothing new. So at any one time, there's dozens of things we're evaluating. And so again, we're ready to make acquisitions as they make sense for us. We've talked previously about the fact that we are very focused on expanded offerings and services. And that's where both our organic and our external investment will go. That's a big priority for us. In terms of the margin question. Certainly, we have experienced strong margins in the first quarter. Our goal is to grow the business. And we talked in Investor Day about the fact that we are focused on growing absolute OPACC dollars. That's our focus. And so again, we want to have a healthy operating margin range, but we really want to invest to grow. And that's what we're intending to do.

傑米，這是吉姆。剛開始討論併購問題。因此，我們所有的業務領導者都會不斷評估併購機會，這並不是什麼新鮮事。因此，在任何時候，我們都在評估幾十件事。因此，只要對我們而言有意義，我們就準備好進行收購。我們之前談過，我們非常注重擴大產品和服務。這就是我們的內部投資和外部投資的去向。這對我們來說非常重要。關於利潤問題。當然，我們在第一季取得了強勁的利潤率。我們的目標是發展業務。我們在投資者日談到我們專注於增加 OPACC 的絕對金額。這就是我們的重點。因此，我們希望擁有健康的營業利潤率範圍，但我們確實希望透過投資來實現成長。這正是我們想做的事。

But just back, sorry, on the share repurchase. I mean, given the pullback in your stock, the numbers that you guys are putting up, which are much better than even the targets were that you talked about in September, how do you think about a more meaningful share repurchase?

但抱歉，剛才談了股票回購的事。我的意思是，考慮到你們股票的回調，你們公佈的數字甚至比你們 9 月談到的目標要好得多，你如何看待更有意義的股票回購？

We don't have anything to announce really at this time again. As we said, we'll be in the market on a consistent basis to offset dilution over time, but we don't have any announcement today about any kind of share repurchases.

目前我們確實沒有什麼可以宣布的。正如我們所說的，我們將持續進入市場以抵消隨著時間的推移而產生的稀釋，但我們今天沒有宣布任何形式的股票回購。

Our next question today is coming from Courtney Yakavonis.

今天的下一個問題來自 Courtney Yakavonis。

Morgan Stanley. Just wanted to get a quick update on your view of commodity inflation. I think you mentioned that those continue to be a headwind. And you did raise your expectations in this guidance, but can you just give us a sense of how much you were expecting. I think you had inflation already in your current guidance. And then second question, if you can just talk about your expectations for China. I think last time you had given us an expectation for about 8% growth. I'm just curious if you can give us an updated view there.

摩根士丹利。只是想快速了解您對商品通膨的看法。我記得你提到這些仍然是一個阻力。您確實在這份指引中提高了您的期望，但您能否讓我們了解您的期望有多高？我認為您目前的指導中已經考慮了通貨膨脹。第二個問題，您能談談對中國的期望嗎？我記得上次您給我們的預期是成長約 8%。我只是好奇您是否能為我們提供最新的觀點。

All right. Do you want me to start with the commodity question or would you like to, Jim?

好的。你想讓我先談商品問題嗎，還是你願意先談嗎，吉姆？

Go ahead, Amy.

繼續吧，艾米。

All right. So Courtney, you're correct. We started off the year expecting material cost to be higher. We started to see some material cost increases in the back half of 2017. For the industry, steel prices, I think, were up about 40% last year. I think they were up about 15% for the industry in the first quarter. We have not seen that type of cost increase flow through to our results, but we have seen material cost increases most notably for steel continue to increase. And as we said, we now expect material cost increases to be higher for the full year than we thought they would be in the fourth quarter outlook, and that is primarily driven by steel. There are a lot of factors that are driving those steel cost increases, but what we pointed out is that we continue to expect price realization to offset those material cost increases. And in fact, from the fourth quarter outlook to this outlook, we now expect the price realization increase was actually larger than the material cost increase so that gap grew a little bit, not a significant amount, but it did grow a little bit favorable versus what we had in the fourth quarter outlook.

好的。所以考特尼，你是對的。我們年初就預期材料成本會更高。2017 年下半年我們開始看到一些材料成本的增加。對於該行業來說，我認為去年鋼鐵價格上漲了約 40％。我認為第一季該產業的成長率約為15%。我們尚未看到此類成本增加影響到我們的業績，但我們已經看到材料成本增加，最明顯的是鋼鐵成本持續增加。正如我們所說，我們現在預計全年材料成本漲幅將高於我們對第四季度前景的預期，這主要受到鋼鐵的影響。推動鋼鐵成本上漲的因素有很多，但我們指出的是，我們仍然預期價格實現將抵消材料成本的上漲。事實上，從第四季度展望到本季度展望，我們現在預計價格實現增幅實際上大於材料成本增幅，因此差距有所擴大，雖然不是很大，但與我們在第四季度展望中的預測相比，確實有所增長。

And on China expectations, you're correct. We started the year expecting industry demand to be up about 8%. We tend to focus on the 10-ton and above excavator as we talk about specific numbers for industry demand. China continues to be stronger than we expect. We now expect the China 10-ton and above excavator demand to be up 30% this year. At that level, that's about 88,000 excavators for the industry. That's probably about 20% to 25% above where we think normal replacement demand and the macro environment in China support. But we do at this point continue to expect China to be very strong for the rest of the year. That said, we expect normal sales patterns in China. So we expect about 60% of end-user demand to come in the first half of the year and about 40% of end-user demand to be in the back half of the year.

關於對中國的期望，您是對的。今年年初，我們預計行業需求將成長約 8%。當我們談論行業需求的具體數字時，我們傾向於關注 10 噸及以上的挖土機。中國繼續表現得比我們預期的更加強勁。我們目前預計今年中國10噸及以上挖土機的需求將增加30%。以這個等級計算，整個產業大約需要 88,000 台挖土機。這可能比我們認為的正常替代需求和中國宏觀環境的支持高出約 20% 至 25%。但目前我們仍預期中國在今年剩餘時間內仍將保持強勁勢頭。儘管如此，我們預計中國的銷售模式將恢復正常。因此，我們預計約 60% 的終端用戶需求將出現在上半年，約 40% 的終端用戶需求將出現在下半年。

Our next question today is coming from Ross Gilardi.

我們今天的下一個問題來自羅斯·吉拉迪。

Bank of America Merrill Lynch. So I just want to ask you about this midyear price increase. Are competitors matching it? And how are you presenting it? I mean, is it a cost push price increase or is it just because demand is so strong right now and you end up in a situation where you feel pressure to lower price if your input costs go down?

美國銀行美林。所以我只想問您有關今年年中價格上漲的問題。競爭對手能與之匹敵嗎？您如何呈現它？我的意思是，這是成本推動的價格上漲，還是只是因為現在需求如此強勁，如果投入成本下降，你就會感到降低價格的壓力？

Ross, there's a lot of factors that go into pricing. Certainly, key to them is our strategic initiatives and our focus on profitable growth. We began midyear price increases several months ago, discussions around what was appropriate in the market environment that we're seeing today. And the midyear price increase, which is primarily for Construction Industries products and some Resource Industries products that are largely used in heavy construction activity is where we took that midyear price increase.

羅斯，定價涉及許多因素。當然，關鍵在於我們的策略性舉措和對獲利成長的關注。幾個月前，我們就開始進行年中價格上調，討論在目前市場環境下什麼價格才是合適的。年中價格上漲主要針對建築業產品和一些在重型建築活動中大量使用的資源行業產品，這就是我們所說的年中價格上漲。

This is Joe. And it was a modest increase. I wouldn't view it as a surcharge that would drop if based on commodity prices or anything.

這是喬。而且這是一個適度的成長。我不會將其視為基於商品價格或其他因素而下降的附加費。

But what are you seeing competitively? I mean, are you seeing other OEMs do the same thing?

但是您在競爭中看到了什麼？我的意思是，您是否看到其他 OEM 也做同樣的事情？

Yes. So I mean, I think we only feel appropriate to talk about our actions. We certainly read the same information that you do. But I think it's only appropriate at this time to talk about our pricing actions, not those of others.

是的。所以我的意思是，我認為我們只適合談論我們的行動。我們當然讀到與您相同的資訊。但我認為，此時談論我們的定價行動而不是其他人的定價行動才是合適的。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just about mining aftermarket. I mean, you had just a huge year last year. Obviously, your results continue to improve quite a bit in the segment. But are you seeing any signs of slowdown in spare parts demand from mining equipment as rebuild activity has already been completed and any more granularity you could provide on kind of the new equipment environment?

好的。很公平。然後只是關於採礦售後市場。我的意思是，去年是你輝煌的一年。顯然，你們的成績在該領域繼續取得了很大的進步。但是，由於重建活動已經完成，您是否看到採礦設備備件需求放緩的跡象，您能否提供有關新設備環境的更多詳細資訊？

Sure. So the short answer is no. We're not seeing any slowdown in aftermarket parts demand for mining. We continue to see robust rebuild demand. Strong utilization in the mines is driving improving aftermarket parts demand and orders. So we expect increases in aftermarket parts for the full year 2018. However, we are expecting even from a percentage basis more significant increases in new equipment for mining. So after several years of underinvesting in replacement demand and some new mining expansion, we expect new equipment sales to grow by more than aftermarket parts sales this year.

當然。所以簡短的回答是「不」。我們沒有看到採礦業售後零件需求有任何放緩。我們持續看到強勁的重建需求。礦山的強勁利用率正在推動售後零件市場的需求和訂單的提高。因此，我們預計 2018 年全年售後零件市場將會成長。然而，即使從百分比來看，我們預計採礦新設備的數量也會有更顯著的成長。因此，在經歷了幾年對替換需求的投資不足和一些新的採礦擴張之後，我們預計今年新設備的銷售額將比售後零件的銷售額增長更多。

Our next question today is coming from Seth Weber.

我們今天的下一個問題來自塞思韋伯。

It's RBC. I actually wanted to follow up on the resource margin question a little bit more. So profits were up basically double on kind of flattish revenue sequentially. And I think what I heard you say was that the first quarter had more equipment sales. That equipment sales were particularly strong in the first quarter. So I'm just trying to tie a lot of this stuff together with kind of margin trajectory for the resource business, just the big ramp that we saw in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter. And then just kind of the -- well, I guess, you kind of addressed the mix going forward, but should we still expect margin expansion from the first quarter level, I guess, is my question.

是 RBC。我其實想進一步探討資源裕度問題。因此，在收入環比持平的情況下，利潤基本上增加了一倍。我想我聽到您說的是第一季的設備銷售額增加。第一季該設備銷售尤為強勁。因此，我只是想將這些東西與資源業務的利潤率走勢聯繫起來，也就是我們在第一季相對於第四季看到的大幅成長。然後只是有點 - 好吧，我想，你已經解決了未來的組合問題，但我們是否仍應預期利潤率會從第一季的水平擴大，這是我的疑問。

Yes. So a couple of things in there. The resource margin largely driven by volume increases. So Resource Industries saw a 31% volume increase driven by higher end-user demand. That was the biggest driver. They also had some favorable price realization and really kept their cost relatively flat on that significant volume increase. So that drove a lot of margin improvement. One thing that we point out at the consolidated level that's impacting Resource Industries' margins as we move throughout the year is cost absorption. So Resource Industries saw a significant increase in inventory in the quarter, which had a favorable impact to their margins and to their performance in the quarter. They now expect their inventory to be about flat for the rest of the year, which will have a negative impact in cost absorption for the remainder of the year. So Resource Industries does expect their margins to come down from the first quarter, but to remain within the Investor Day range for the full year. And at Resource Industries volume level, a few changes like cost absorption can have a meaningful impact in margin performance. But for the full year, we do expect Resource Industries to be within the Investor Day range.

是的。這裡面有幾件事。資源利潤率主要受產量增加的推動。受終端用戶需求增加的推動，資源產業的銷量成長了 31%。這是最大的驅動力。他們還實現了有利的價格，並且在銷量大幅增加的情況下確實保持了成本相對穩定。這大大提高了利潤率。我們指出，在綜合層面上，影響資源產業利潤率的一件事是成本吸收。因此，資源產業的庫存在本季大幅增加，這對其利潤率和本季的業績產生了有利影響。他們現在預計今年剩餘時間內的庫存將基本持平，這將對今年剩餘時間的成本吸收產生負面影響。因此，資源工業確實預計其利潤率將從第一季起下降，但全年仍將保持在投資者日範圍內。在資源產業的產量層面，成本吸收等一些變化可能會對利潤率表現產生重大影響。但就全年而言，我們確實預期資源產業將處於投資者日範圍內。

Okay. That's helpful, Amy. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the finco. It does sound like some of the metrics did tick up here. And I think you called out power, Cat Power Finance and some Latin American business. Is that isolated project activity or can you just give us any more color on what's going on there?

好的。這很有幫助，艾米。然後也許只是對金融公司進行快速跟進。聽起來這裡的一些指標確實有上升。我認為你提到了電力、Cat Power Finance 和一些拉丁美洲企業。這是孤立的專案活動嗎？或者您能否向我們詳細介紹那裡正在發生的事情？

Yes. So Cat Financial's normal business in the quarter was quite good. Average assets were up, margins expanded. There was some weakness in their Cat Power Finance and LatAm portfolios, as you discussed. And even in the Cat Power Finance, a significant portion of that was in Latin America. So it's a reflection of some weakness in Latin America that we all are well aware of and has been there for some time, putting some pressure on that portfolio. There's also some unique just financing rules and issues in LatAm about being able to get inventory back and how you process through past dues. So overall, no, it's really mostly very specific to Latin America and the weakness we've seen in the recent past in that economy. And outside of that, it was really just 1 or 2 customer issues that were going through some financial challenges and had some restructures to their loan.

是的。因此，Cat Financial 本季的正常業務表現相當良好。平均資產增加，利潤率擴大。正如您所討論的，他們的 Cat Power Finance 和 LatAm 投資組合存在一些弱點。即使在 Cat Power Finance，其中很大一部分也在拉丁美洲。所以這反映了拉丁美洲的一些弱點，我們都很清楚這一點，而且這種弱點已經存在了一段時間，給該投資組合帶來了一些壓力。拉丁美洲也存在一些獨特的公平融資規則和問題，涉及如何收回庫存以及如何處理逾期款項。所以總的來說，不是的，這實際上主要是針對拉丁美洲以及我們近期看到的該經濟體的疲軟。除此之外，實際上只有 1 或 2 個客戶遇到了一些財務困難並對貸款進行了一些重組。

Our next question today is coming from David Raso.

今天的下一個問題來自 David Raso。

Evercore ISI. Just a clarification, I think you mentioned first quarter EPS would be the high-water mark for the year by quarter. And I'm just trying to make sure I understand. In the last 20 years, your second quarter has always been above your first quarter, except for twice, right, when oil and gas was rolling over in 2015 and in 2011 when Bucyrus and the Japanese disaster hit the quarter, so kind of unique circumstance. And I know you just commented a bit on resource. But can you help us understand a little more the puts and takes on why such an anomaly of the first quarter being the high-water mark. The idea of the investments, might be interesting if you can maybe flesh out some numbers around that. The price/cost won't be as positive as the first quarter. But as you said, if anything, for the full year, your view even got a little better for price/cost. Now maybe a lot of it was in the first quarter already. I appreciate that. But just making sure we understand why such an anomaly that the second quarter is below the first quarter.

Evercore ISI。只是澄清一下，我認為您提到第一季的每股收益將是年度季度的最高水準。我只是想確保我理解了。在過去的 20 年裡，第二季度的業績一直高於第一季度，除了兩次例外，一次是 2015 年石油和天然氣行業遭遇困境，另一次是 2011 年巴賽勒斯和日本發生災難襲擊該季度，這是一種特殊情況。我知道您剛才對資源發表了一些評論。但是，您能否幫助我們進一步了解，為什麼第一季的異常現象達到了最高水位？如果您能具體說明一些相關數字，那麼投資的想法可能會很有趣。價格/成本不會像第一季那麼積極。但正如您所說的，如果有的話，就全年而言，您對價格/成本的看法甚至會變得更好一些。現在可能很多已經在第一季了。我很感激。但要確保我們理解為什麼會出現第二季低於第一季的異常現象。

Yes. So there are 3 reasons why we see the first quarter profit per share to be the high-water mark. And you mentioned all 3 of them. I'll go through them again. Price versus material cost, very favorable in the first quarter. We expect to be favorable for the full year. But for the balance of the year, we would expect material cost increases to be greater than price realization.

是的。因此，我們認為第一季每股利潤將創下最高紀錄的原因有三。您提到了這三個。我會再檢查一遍。第一季的價格與材料成本非常有利。我們預計全年業績將表現良好。但就今年的餘額而言，我們預計材料成本的增加將高於價格的實現。

And Amy, if I can stop you there for a second. If I'm seeing the waterfall chart right, price realization with helpful manufacturing costs were a positive $207 million? Is that the right way to read it on a consolidated operating profit, the waterfall chart?

艾米，如果我能阻止你一會兒的話。如果我沒看錯的話，瀑布圖加上有用的製造成本，價格實現額是正的 2.07 億美元？這是閱讀合併營業利潤瀑布圖的正確方法嗎？

So we got price realization, I think, was a $186 million in the quarter.

所以我認為，本季我們實現的價格是 1.86 億美元。

And the costs were a positive $21 million, so call it $207 million?

成本為正 2,100 萬美元，所以稱之為 2.07 億美元？

Correct.

正確的。

So do you think the full year is still positive? It can't take out more than $207 million. So I mean, it's $50 million, $60 million a quarter drag.

那麼您認為全年業績仍樂觀著嗎？它不能取出超過 2.07 億美元。所以我的意思是，每季的拖累是 5,000 萬美元到 6,000 萬美元。

Yes. So...

是的。所以...

And that's $0.06. I'm just making sure I understand where the magnitude to create such an anomaly in your seasonal pattern of earnings.

那是 0.06 美元。我只是想確保我了解在你的季節性收入模式中造成這種異常的程度有多大。

Yes. So manufacturing cost, a significant piece of that favorability was cost absorption. So with the inventory growth in the quarter, which I believe was $900 million or so that drove favorable cost absorption. We do not expect that -- we expect that to actually be an unfavorable item for the balance of the year. So it is -- there is negative material cost in that manufacturing cost bucket and favorable cost absorption that will not repeat itself. In addition to that, we do talk about period cost spend, which is twofold. One is just normal seasonality of spend. So the first quarter is often a slow quarter for project spend as R&D projects pick up throughout the year. And then many of our target initiatives for e-commerce, for digital, for expanding products like the next gen hex got off to a slower start than we expected. And we expect those projects to get back on track as we proceed throughout the year.

是的。因此，製造成本，這種有利因素的一個重要部分是成本吸收。因此，本季的庫存成長（我認為約為 9 億美元）推動了有利的成本吸收。我們並不認為——我們預計這實際上會成為今年餘額的不利項目。事實就是如此——在製造成本桶中存在負的材料成本和不會重複的有利的成本吸收。除此之外，我們也討論了期間成本支出，它包括兩個面向。一是正常的季節性支出。因此，由於研發項目全年都在回暖，因此第一季通常是專案支出的淡季。然而，我們針對電子商務、數位化、擴展產品（如下一代 Hex）的許多目標計劃的起步都比我們預期的要慢。我們預計，隨著全年的推進，這些項目將重新回到正軌。

And can you flesh that last part out? The other part about starting the year slowly and ramping up. That's part of the normal seasonal pattern we've seen. So that doesn't answer the anomaly question. The target investments though could be helpful. Can you give us some order of magnitude on how big these target investments ramp up as the year goes on?

能詳細說明一下最後一部分嗎？另一部分是關於從緩慢開始新的一年並逐步加快步伐。這是我們所看到的正常季節性模式的一部分。所以這並沒有回答異常問題。然而，目標投資可能會有所幫助。您能否告訴我們，隨著時間的推移，這些目標投資將增加多少數量級？

I don't have a specific number to give you, David. I mean, what we did talk about is that we did not change our estimate for those for the full year, but we got off to a slow start in the first quarter. So we kept our fourth quarter outlook for investing in those target initiatives are the same, but underspent on those in the first quarter.

大衛，我沒有具體的數字可以給你。我的意思是，我們確實談到過，我們沒有改變對全年的估計，但第一季的開局緩慢。因此，我們保持第四季度對這些目標計劃的投資預期不變，但第一季的支出不足。

Okay. If there's nothing else to point out, that's helpful. I appreciate the feedback. It just seems a bit of an odd seasonal. I mean, it just seems the last 2 times we've had the first quarter be even this low a percent of the full year guide, you kind of have to go back to -- we were peaking in early '12 and we rolled over by the end of the year. Oil and gas started to roll over in '15. I'm just making sure we all don't walk away saying, hey, that was the best quarter they're going to give us, period. The only other time that's happened is we peaked in early '12 and oil and gas hit us broadly in '15. So I'm just being clear of what you're trying to communicate.

好的。如果沒有其他需要指出的，那會很有幫助。我很感謝您的回饋。這似乎是一個有點奇怪的季節性。我的意思是，似乎過去兩次，我們的第一季業績甚至只佔全年預期的這麼低，你必須回溯到——我們在 2012 年初達到頂峰，然後在年底前回落。石油和天然氣產業在2015年開始下滑。我只是想確保我們不會離開時說，嘿，這是他們能給我們的最好的一個季度，僅此而已。唯一一次發生這種情況是，我們在 2012 年初達到頂峰，而石油和天然氣在 2015 年對我們造成了廣泛衝擊。所以我只是想清楚你想表達什麼。

Yes. So very clearly, we are trying to communicate that we see strong demand across all regions and most of our end market increasing from our fourth quarter outlook. And so driving the first quarter raise is an increase in our sales volume expectation, which implies that we see continued good growth for the balance of the year.

是的。因此，很明顯，我們試圖傳達的訊息是，從第四季度的展望來看，我們看到所有地區的需求都強勁，而且大多數終端市場的需求都在成長。因此，推動第一季銷售額成長的原因是我們對銷售量的預期增加，這意味著我們預計今年剩餘時間銷售額將繼續保持良好的成長。

Our next question today is coming from Ann Duignan.

今天的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan。

JPMorgan. Can I just take a step back on the price/cost comment that you made. I just want to make sure I understand. Did you specifically say the price/cost will be a negative for the remainder of the year for each of the quarters? And if no, since you're pushing through a price increase in an environment where backlogs are very solid, why wouldn't you push through a price increase sufficient to offset input cost? And what does that mean for 2019 if we're behind going into 2019?

摩根大通。我能否對您提出的價格/成本評論進行回顧一下？我只是想確保我理解了。您是否明確說過今年剩餘時間每季的價格/成本將為負值？如果沒有，既然你是在積壓訂單非常多的環境下推動價格上漲，那麼為什麼你不推動足以抵銷投入成本的價格上漲呢？如果我們在 2019 年就已經落後了，那麼這對 2019 年意味著什麼？

So a couple of things. Yes, you're correct that we said that for the balance of the year, price versus cost would be negative. We don't give quarterly guidance. And I, in fact, don't have the breakout of what that will be quarter by quarter. But for the rest of the year, that comparison will be negative. And certainly as we sit here today at the end of the first quarter, we're a long way from looking out into what 2019 will look like. And we do. And Brad said this a couple of times in his script, continue to stress that at the end of the day higher commodity prices are a good thing for our end markets. And we're seeing that translate into improvement across many -- for many of our customers. As far as the price question, we have good margins. It's a competitive marketplace. Continues to be a competitive marketplace. And as a key point of our strategic strategy is to profitably grow the business.

有幾件事。是的，您說得對，我們說，就今年的餘額而言，價格與成本的比率將為負數。我們不提供季度指引。事實上，我還沒有公佈每季的具體數據。但就今年剩餘時間而言，這項對比仍為負面。當然，當我們今天坐在這裡，迎來第一季末時，我們距離展望2019年將會是什麼樣子還有很長的路要走。我們確實這麼做了。布拉德在他的演講中多次提到了這一點，繼續強調，歸根結底，大宗商品價格上漲對我們的終端市場來說是一件好事。我們看到，這對我們的許多客戶而言都意味著進步。就價格問題而言，我們的利潤率很高。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。繼續是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們的策略策略的一個關鍵點是實現業務的獲利性成長。

Just then as a follow-up on the backlog. Could you just talk about the mix in your backlog by segment. I know you did address resource. But are there any positive or negative kind of product mix in the backlog that we should be aware of as we look at the remainder of the year?

就在那時，作為對積壓工作的後續跟進。能否按部分談談您的積壓訂單組合？我知道你確實解決了資源問題。但是，當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，積壓產品中是否存在任何積極或消極的產品組合是我們應該注意的？

Sure. So the growth in the backlog was driven by construction energy and Energy & Transportation. Resource Industries backlog was flat sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2017 driven really by 2 things. One, we had a very strong order board in the fourth quarter. We saw some of those orders. We didn't -- so I guess I would say it that way. We saw a very strong fourth quarter. And then velocity for shipment really picked up in the first quarter. So we were able to keep up with orders and get throughput up and shipments out the door. Construction Industries backlog increase is reflective of continued strong demand in Construction Industries. And I'd say the same for Energy & Transportation. The biggest piece of that for reciprocating engine largely for North America onshore oil and gas. And I know there's always a lot of interest. The Solar backlog remains healthy and was flat, about flat sequentially from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

當然。因此，積壓訂單的成長是由建築能源和能源與運輸所推動的。資源產業積壓訂單與 2017 年第四季相比持平，主要受兩件事的影響。首先，我們第四季的訂單非常強勁。我們看到了其中一些訂單。我們沒有——所以我想我會那樣說。我們看到第四季表現非常強勁。第一季的出貨速度確實加快了。因此，我們能夠跟上訂單，提高產量並發貨。建築業積壓訂單的增加反映了建築業持續強勁的需求。對於能源和交通運輸領域我也有同樣的看法。其中最大的一塊為往復式發動機，主要用於北美陸上石油和天然氣。我知道人們總是對此很感興趣。太陽能積壓訂單保持健康且持平，與第四季度相比與第一季基本持平。

Just quickly on construction, any change in mix of the backlog, more compact, more large, anything we should consider that would negatively or positively impact mix?

就施工而言，積壓的組合有任何變化嗎，更緊湊，更大，我們應該考慮任何會對組合產生積極或消極影響的事情嗎？

Yes. I would say broadly speaking that we're not seeing much significant mix impact across of the segments in our outlook. It's not an area that we're focusing on really positively or negatively. Over the entire portfolio is pretty balanced.

是的。我想說，從廣義上講，我們並沒有看到我們的展望中各個細分市場受到太大的顯著組合影響。我們並沒有真正積極或消極地關注這個領域。整個投資組合相當平衡。

Our next question today is coming from Jerry Revich.

今天的下一個問題來自傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。

It's Goldman Sachs. I'm wondering if you could talk about your expectations of period costs over the course of this cycle over prior recoveries around year 2, year 3 was when we would see period costs really move higher. I'm wondering if you can counsel us on how to think about it given the difference in the approach to CapEx and post restructuring if this level of period cost performance that you put up in the quarter sustainable.

這是高盛。我想知道您是否可以談談您對本週期內期間成本的預期，相對於之前的復甦，大約在第二年到第三年，我們將看到期間成本真正走高。我想知道您是否可以為我們提供建議，考慮到資本支出和重組後方法的差異，我們如何看待您在本季度提出的這種期間成本績效水準是否可持續。

This is Jim. So Jerry, we are certainly committed to controlling structural costs. As we said many times, we are going to be making targeted investments. And those are in the areas of expanded offerings and services. And so in the past, when we wanted to grow, it was through either R&D for new products. We build the factories or we're going to make an acquisition. So now we're really looking at and making some investments again in services. We're expanding our digital capabilities. And so some of that will involve period cost, but again we're very committed to keeping our structural cost under control. So I don't know if I answered your question. But again, we'll make some targeted investments, but we're not just going to let costs creep up the way they have in the past.

這是吉姆。所以傑瑞，我們當然致力於控制結構性成本。正如我們多次說過的，我們將進行有針對性的投資。這些都是擴大產品和服務的領域。因此，過去當我們想要發展時，要麼透過新產品的研發。我們建造工廠或進行收購。所以現在我們真正開始關注服務並再次對其進行一些投資。我們正在擴展我們的數位能力。因此，其中一些將涉及期間成本，但我們再次致力於控制結構性成本。所以我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。不過，我們會進行一些針對性的投資，但我們不會讓成本像過去一樣不斷上升。

And Jim, the returns profile of those investments, over what period do you expect an ROI? Is it a long term, strategic type of investment that we should be thinking about? Or is it more quick hitting, within 2 years we'll see the earnings benefit of any related period investments?

吉姆，這些投資的報酬率如何？您預計在什麼時期內能獲得投資回報？我們是否應該考慮這種長期的、策略性的投資？還是更快的見效，在兩年內我們就能看到任何相關期間投資的收益？

There isn't one answer to the question. So for some of them, they'll be longer term. And for some, they'll be relatively short. So again, as we focus on the aftermarket, generally, many of those investments should produce relatively short-term returns and some will be more long term.

這個問題沒有一個答案。因此對於其中一些而言，它們的期限會更長。對於某些人來說，它們會相對較短。因此，當我們再次關注售後市場時，一般來說，許多投資應該會產生相對短期的回報，而有些則會產生更長期的回報。

Okay. And then structurally, how do you think about your expected level of dealer inventories in this cycle? If I have it right, I think your dealer inventories are down half a month to a month from the last cycle. Is that the level that you expect to see in this cycle? Can you just put that into context for us considering how much dealer inventories can move early in the year?

好的。然後從結構上來說，您如何看待本週期內經銷商庫存的預期水準？如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你們經銷商的庫存比上一個週期減少了半個月到一個月。這是您希望在本週期內看到的水平嗎？您能否為我們簡單介紹一下今年初經銷商庫存的變動情況？

Yes. So Jerry, maybe I'll step back a little bit. Dealer inventory levels in terms of months of sales are at the bottom end of our current range that we think about. But keep in mind that dealer inventories are controlled by the dealers that are independently owned and operated. So ultimately, they have the decision power there. But we have moved, I would say, from a targeted range for dealer inventories in terms of months of sales from 3.5 to 4 months of sales down to about 3 to 3.5 months of sales. So as you hear us talk about that, it probably is lower than where we were in the prior cycle. Right now we're at the bottom end of that range. And in some regions, most notably in China, we're actually well below that range. And we expect at some point, I guess, over the long -- that will be sustainable. We'll have to see some dealer inventory come back into our Chinese dealers.

是的。所以傑瑞，也許我應該退後一點。以銷售月數來計算，經銷商的庫存水準處於我們目前考慮範圍的底端。但請記住，經銷商庫存由獨立擁有和經營的經銷商控制。因此最終他們擁有決策權。但我想說的是，我們已經將經銷商庫存的目標範圍（以銷售月數計算）從 3.5 至 4 個月的銷售量下調至約 3 至 3.5 個月的銷售量。因此，當您聽到我們談論這個問題時，它可能比上一個週期的水平要低。目前我們正處於該範圍的底端。而在某些地區，尤其是中國，我們實際上遠低於該範圍。我想，我們預計，從長遠來看，這種狀況在某種程度上是可持續的。我們必須看到一些經銷商庫存回到我們的中國經銷商。

Our next question today is coming from Rob Wertheimer.

今天的下一個問題來自 Rob Wertheimer。

It's Melius Research. The question is just a philosophical one, I guess, for Jim on margins. How did you think about setting the margin target that you did at the Investor Day? And I assume that you think you can grow profitably and maybe even gain share at those target levels. How do you think about as you achieve as you have really exceptional results, whether you let them drift above that cyclically or not. We're at low cycle and mid cycle now and really just above or not and how you think about competitiveness and balancing what margin you take.

這是 Melius Research。我想，對吉姆來說，這個問題只是一個哲學問題。您是如何考慮在投資人日設定保證金目標的？我認為您認為您可以實現盈利增長，甚至可能在目標水平上獲得市場份額。當您取得真正卓越的成果時，您如何看待自己是否讓這些成果週期性地超越這個層次。我們現在處於低週期和中週期，實際上是否剛好高於或低於，以及您如何看待競爭力和平衡您所獲得的利潤。

Yes. So it certainly is a balance. To answer your first question, how did we establish the margins? We looked at the margins that we achieved at similar sales levels in the recent past. And we put forward what we felt was a reasonable expectation for our teams to improve margins. As we said, again, both this morning and in Investor Day, our goal is to profitably grow. And we want to make investments to grow within a healthy range. We're not too concerned about quarterly deviations because we expect quarter-to-quarter that there'll be some movement there. But again, we're trying to grow the business over the long term in a healthy margin rate.

是的。所以這確實是一種平衡。回答您的第一個問題，我們如何確定利潤？我們研究了近期在類似銷售水準下所取得的利潤。並且，我們提出了我們認為對我們的團隊提高利潤率的合理期望。正如我們今天上午和投資者日所說的那樣，我們的目標是實現獲利成長。我們希望透過投資來實現健康成長。我們不太擔心季度偏差，因為我們預期季度間會有一些變動。但我們仍試圖在健康的利潤率下實現業務的長期成長。

And then I assume you think you can grow share a little bit in those ranges. And would you let margins drift above that if we hit high cycle volumes at some point, which we haven't been obviously.

然後我假設你認為你可以在這些範圍內稍微增加份額。如果我們在某個時候達到較高的循環產量，你會讓利潤率高於這個數字嗎？顯然我們還沒有達到這個水準。

Yes. It is a balance. And obviously, one of the things we're trying to do is grow the aftermarket. And to have aftermarket, you need to have market share of new equipment. So it's always a balance. And there's no one answer to the question. But yes, we want to increase share. We do. And it's always a balance between margins and share. But again, our goal here is to grow the business.

是的。這是一種平衡。顯然，我們正在嘗試做的事情之一就是擴大售後市場。而要擁有售後市場，你就需要擁有新設備的市場佔有率。因此，始終需要保持平衡。但這個問題沒有唯一的答案。但是是的，我們想增加份額。是的。利潤和份額之間總是存在著平衡。但再說一遍，我們的目標是發展業務。

Our next question today is coming from Joe O'Dea.

今天的下一個問題來自喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

It's Vertical Research. First, just back on dealer inventory and when you look at the $1.2 billion of build in the quarter and it sounds like that's primarily expected to go to end market demand this year. So are you looking at no net build in dealer inventory? And then if that is the case, where would you be on kind of inventory to on months of inventory as you get to the end of the year?

這是垂直研究。首先，回顧經銷商庫存，當您看到本季 12 億美元的增量時，聽起來這主要預計會流向今年的終端市場需求。那麼，您是否認為經銷商庫存沒有淨增加？如果是這樣的話，到年底時您的庫存類型和月份庫存狀況會如何？

Yes. So your assumption is correct, Joe. We expect dealer inventory to end the year about where we are now at the end of the first quarter, maybe up or down a little bit. But I think broadly speaking, to end the year pretty close to where we ended the first quarter. We do expect Construction Industries dealer inventory to come down in the second quarter on a strong selling season. And at the same time, we expect Resource Industries dealer inventory to come up in the second quarter on continued kind of build-out and support of strong demand, end-user demand for Resource Industries. And then for that inventory to again come down by the end of the year. I don't have an estimate of months of sales for the end of year. And quite frankly, as we all know, ultimately, where we end dealer inventory will have a lot to do what the 2019 outlook is. And we're not giving that today. And so I think kind of estimating what months of sales will be and frankly, walk through with our outlook include exactly knowing where dealer inventory will be at the end of the year has a lot to do with where dealers are and where expectations for 2019 for the dealers comes in at.

是的。所以你的假設是正確的，喬。我們預計經銷商庫存在今年年底的水準將與第一季末的水準大致相同，可能略有上升或下降。但我認為，從總體上講，今年年底的水平將與第一季年底的水平相當。我們確實預計，由於銷售旺季的到來，建築業經銷商庫存將在第二季下降。同時，我們預計資源產業經銷商庫存將在第二季上升，這得益於持續的擴張和強勁需求以及資源產業終端用戶需求的支援。然後到年底庫存將再次下降。我沒有對年底月份的銷售量做出估計。坦白說，眾所周知，最終經銷商庫存的結束與 2019 年的前景有很大關係。但我們今天不提供這個。因此，我認為估算幾個月的銷售情況，坦白說，了解我們的前景，包括準確了解年底經銷商的庫存情況，這與經銷商的現狀以及對 2019 年經銷商的預期有很大關係。

Okay. And then on mining equipment. You're talking about seeing demand both on replacement as well as initiated expansions. And I guess, specific to the expansions, given the amount of equipment that was sold in 2011 and '12 and some thinking that there's enough equipment on the sidelines that they can come back into service for a while. But where are we there? Are we at a point where through cannibalization and the amount of equipment that's back in service that we're getting to more normalized levels of parked fleet and that from here we're looking at needing OE to serve that demand? Just kind of a status update on parked fleet and the drivers of that new equipment demand.

好的。然後是採礦設備。您談到了對替換和啟動擴展的需求。我想，具體到擴張，考慮到 2011 年和 2012 年銷售的設備數量，有些人認為場外有足夠的設備，可以讓他們重新投入使用一段時間。但我們在哪裡呢？我們是否正處於這樣一個階段：透過拆解和重新投入使用的設備數量，我們將獲得更正常化的停放車隊水平，並且從現在開始我們需要 OE 來滿足這一需求？這只是停泊車隊的狀態更新以及新設備需求的驅動因素。

Sure. So the parked fleet does continue to come down, rebuilds remain robust. We expect them to be robust throughout the rest of the year. So I would say that there are still trucks that come back online in our estimation. There's a lot of complexities about bringing the parked fleet online versus expansions. Where is that parked fleet at versus where are the expansions in mines at. And there are also many things driving new equipment, demand expansion being one, but also replacing equipment which has been delayed for some time now also being a significant driver of new equipment demand. And so we do -- I think in short, we do have the parked fleet continuing to come down, rebuilds, driving aftermarket parts sales continues to be robust. And where that new equipment is, I guess, kind of in short term, it's pretty broad around the globe and pretty broad by commodity. So the recovery in mining that's occurring continues to be pretty broad-based.

當然。因此，停泊的船隊數量確實持續減少，重建工作依然強勁。我們預計它們在今年剩餘時間內仍將保持強勁勢頭。因此我想說，我們估計仍然有卡車可以恢復生產。將停放的車隊投入使用與擴建相比有許多複雜性。停泊的艦隊在哪裡以及礦井的擴建在哪裡。推動新設備的因素很多，需求擴大是其中之一，但更換已經延後一段時間的設備也是推動新設備需求的重要因素。我們也確實如此—我認為簡而言之，我們的停放車隊確實在繼續減少、重建，從而推動售後零件銷售持續強勁。我想，短期內，新設備將遍布全球，並且商品種類繁多。因此，採礦業的復甦仍然具有相當廣泛的範圍。

Our next question today is coming from Andrew Casey.

我們今天的下一個問題來自安德魯凱西 (Andrew Casey)。

Wells Fargo Securities. I just want to make sure I'm understanding some of the messaging coming out this call because during the call the stock's kind of sold off quite a bit. You're kind of pulling back expectations on share repurchase and yet it seems like you're going to be generating quite a bit of cash through the year especially given the implied inventory drawdown. What are you looking to use that cash for? I know you've identified the deployment options. Are we -- should we kind of walk away from this call looking like you're a little concerned about peak or are you looking at and evaluating an active pipeline within M&A? And if so, could you please share a ballpark average deal size you might be contemplating?

富國證券。我只是想確保我了解這次電話會議傳達的一些訊息，因為在電話會議期間股票被拋售了不少。你在某種程度上降低了對股票回購的預期，但看起來你今年將會產生相當多的現金，特別是考慮到隱含的庫存減少。您想用這筆現金做什麼？我知道你已經確定了部署選項。我們是否應該放棄這次通話，看起來你有點擔心峰值，或者你正在查看和評估 M&A 中的活躍管道？如果是的話，您能否分享一下您正在考慮的大致平均交易規模？

This is Jim. So it certainly wasn't our intent to express a concern about peak, to use your words. Really no change here in terms of us continually looking at M&A opportunities. Obviously, our cash position has improved over the last year. And that allows us the flexibility to make investments, both organically and in M&A. And again, we're not ruling anything out. So what I said about share repurchase that we didn't have an announcement to make today. And again, we're looking at staying with our strategy to grow our business as we communicated in Investor Day.

這是吉姆。所以，用你的話來說，我們當然無意表達對峰值的擔憂。就我們不斷尋找併購機會而言，確實沒有改變。顯然，我們的現金狀況比去年有所改善。這使得我們可以靈活地進行投資，包括內部投資和併購投資。我再說一遍，我們不會排除任何可能性。所以我說的關於股票回購，我們今天沒有宣布。正如我們在投資者日所溝通的那樣，我們將繼續堅持我們的業務成長策略。

You're clear, Brad.

你說得很清楚，布拉德。

Yes. This is Brad. So my guess is, you guys are modeling and you see potentially some strong cash flow moving forward and want to know what we're going to do with it. And I think what Jim has said, we're going to continue to invest in the business. Maybe different than the past. We're going to be in the market on a more continuous basis for stock repurchase to offset dilution. We are continuing to look to grow and do the M&A business. I think what we're saying is that, we're not going to answer that question right now that you have potentially on your mind as to what we would do with the excess cash that could happen down the road. We're not saying it wouldn't be a repurchase. We're just not answering it right now.

是的。這是布拉德。所以我的猜測是，你們正在進行建模，並且看到了未來可能出現的強勁現金流，並想知道我們要用它做什麼。我認為正如吉姆所說，我們將繼續對該業務進行投資。或許和過去不同。我們將更持續地在市場上回購股票，以抵消股權稀釋。我們將繼續尋求發展並開展併購業務。我想我們要說的是，我們現在不會回答你可能想到的問題，即我們將如何處理未來可能產生的過剩現金。我們並不是說這不會是回購。我們現在還不回答這個問題。

Okay. And then one last question as this gets to the cycle for a business that's enjoying some really strong demand trends. If we look at Construction Industries and exclude the China market, could you kind of give us kind of a ballpark range maybe percentage or however you want to potentially answer it. Where is construction industry unit volume relative to peak if we exclude the China market?

好的。最後一個問題，因為這涉及到一個正在享受一些非常強勁的需求趨勢的企業的周期。如果我們看建築業並排除中國市場，您能否給我們一個大概的範圍，可能是百分比，或者無論你想要如何回答？如果排除中國市場，建築業單位數量相對於高峰而言處於什麼水準？

So Andy, I don't have that number off the top of my head. I think if you look, you have to look market by market. North America is doing strong. But I think one could argue we're just starting to see healthy new home construction. Infrastructure remains far below potential. LatAm is just starting to recover and is well below the sales levels that it was a few years ago. And you could say the same thing about Europe, which has been strong for some time now, but in total is far below where sales were in Europe a decade ago. And the AME portion of EAME have seen some weakness in the last few years, and they're starting to see a little bit of turnaround and improvement as well. So I think it is a different story across the different regions of Construction Industries. A region like China, we've been pretty clear. We think is quite robust and above where we think normal replacement demand. Another region like Latin America is still from a historical perspective at very low levels.

安迪，我暫時還記不清這個數字了。我認為，如果你觀察的話，你必須逐一市場地觀察。北美表現強勁。但我認為有人可能會說，我們才剛開始看到健康的新房子建設。基礎設施仍遠未達到潛力。拉美地區才剛開始復甦，銷售水準遠低於幾年前。歐洲的情況也類似，歐洲市場一段時間以來一直表現強勁，但總體而言，其銷售額遠低於十年前的水平。而歐洲、中東和非洲 (EAME) 中的非洲部分在過去幾年中出現了一些疲軟跡象，也開始出現一些好轉和改善。所以我認為建築業不同地區的情況有所不同。對於像中國這樣的地區，我們已經非常清楚了。我們認為其需求相當強勁，且高於正常的替代需求。另一個地區，如拉丁美洲，從歷史角度來看仍處於非常低的水平。

With that, I think that needs to be the last question. Kate?

因此，我認為這應該是最後一個問題。凱特？

Thank you. Do you have any closing comments you'd want to finish with?

謝謝。您還有什麼結束語嗎？

Again, appreciate everyone calling in today, and we appreciate your questions and look forward to chatting with you next quarter. Thank you.

再次感謝今天來電的各位，我們感謝您的提問，並期待下個季度與您交談。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。