開拓重工 (CAT) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Caterpillar 4Q 2019 Analyst Conference. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2019 年第四季分析師大會。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人珍妮佛‧德里斯科爾 (Jennifer Driscoll)。女士，現在請您發言。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman of the Board and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, CFO; Kyle Epley, Vice President of our Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager.

謝謝你，保羅。大家早安。歡迎參加卡特彼勒第四季財報電話會議。今天與我們一起參加的有董事會主席兼首席執行官 Jim Umpleby；首席財務官 Andrew Bonfield； Kyle Epley，我們全球金融服務部副總裁；以及高級 IR 經理 Rob Rengel。

Our call today expands on our earnings release, which we issued earlier this morning. You'll find slides to accompany today's presentation, along with the release, in the Investors section of caterpillar.com under Events & Presentation. For retail stats, look at our 8-K filed a few minutes after that.

我們今天的電話會議擴展了我們今天早上發布的收益報告。您可以在 caterpillar.com 的「活動與簡報」下的「投資者」部分中找到今天簡報的幻燈片以及新聞稿。對於零售統計數據，請查看我們幾分鐘後提交的 8-K 檔案。

As shown on Slide 2, any forward-looking statements we made today are subject to risks and uncertainty. We also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we discuss today. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in today's news release for details on factors that individually or collectively could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast.

如投影片 2 所示，我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。我們也做出了一些假設，這可能會導致我們的實際結果與我們今天討論的資訊不同。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解單獨或共同導致我們的實際結果與預測存在重大差異的因素的詳細資訊。

Let me remind you that Caterpillar has copyrighted this call. We prohibit use of any portion of it without our prior written approval.

讓我提醒你，卡特彼勒已經擁有此通話的版權。未經我們事先書面批准，我們禁止使用其任何部分。

As previously indicated, today we're reporting adjusted profit per share in addition to our U.S. GAAP results. Our adjusted profit per share for the fourth quarter excludes a pension OPEB mark-to-market adjustment for the remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans. The adjustment was $0.65 per share in the fourth quarter or $0.64 per share for the fiscal year. Our adjusted profit per share for the full year also excludes the $0.31 discrete tax item from the first quarter of '19.

如前所述，今天我們除了報告美國 GAAP 結果外，還報告調整後的每股利潤。我們第四季的調整後每股利潤不包括因重新計量退休金和其他離職後福利計劃而進行的退休金 OPEB 按市價調整。第四季的調整額為每股 0.65 美元，本財年的調整額為每股 0.64 美元。我們全年調整後的每股盈餘還不包括 2019 年第一季的 0.31 美元單獨稅項。

In the 2018 fiscal year, adjusted profit per share excludes restructuring costs, in addition to both tax-related and pension OPEB mark-to-market adjustments. Our U.S. GAAP-based guidance for 2020 profit per share includes estimated restructuring costs for the year and continues to exclude pension and OPEB mark-to-market impacts.

2018財年，調整後的每股利潤不包括重組成本，以及稅務相關和退休金OPEB的市價調整。我們基於美國 GAAP 的 2020 年每股利潤指引包括該年度預計重組成本，並且繼續排除退休金和 OPEB 的市價影響。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to Jim for his perspective on 2019 and our outlook for 2020.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 3，並請 Jim 談談他對 2019 年的看法以及我們對 2020 年的展望。

Thanks, Jennifer. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Caterpillar's fourth quarter earnings call. I plan to cover 3 topics this morning: First, I'll summarize our fourth quarter and full year 2019 results. I'll also provide an update on the progress of our enterprise strategy as well as some color on how the year ended versus our Investor Day targets. I'll finish with our expectations for 2020.

謝謝，珍妮佛。大家早安。感謝您參加卡特彼勒第四季財報電話會議。我計劃今天上午討論 3 個主題：首先，我將總結我們 2019 年第四季和全年的業績。我也會介紹我們的企業策略進展情況，以及今年底與投資者日目標的比較情況。我將以我們對 2020 年的期望來結束。

I'm pleased with the way our team is executing, notwithstanding the difficult economic environment, which led to a decline in sales to users during the fourth quarter. I'll describe the segments later in here in the call, but just to give you a brief overview: Sales to users for all 3 segments were lower than our expectations. In Resource Industries, we continue to see strong quoting activity in mining as most commodities remain at investable levels, but customers are being cautious due to global economic conditions. While we experienced a decline in mining sales in the fourth quarter, we continue to believe there will be a gradual recovery in our sales to mining customers. Our mining sales are lumpy, so there can be significant variation between quarters.

儘管經濟環境艱難，導致第四季用戶銷售下降，但我對我們團隊的執行方式感到滿意。我稍後會在電話會議中描述各個部分，但只是給您一個簡短的概述：所有 3 個部分的用戶銷售額都低於我們的預期。在資源產業，我們繼續看到採礦業的報價活動強勁，因為大多數商品仍處於可投資水平，但由於全球經濟狀況，客戶變得謹慎。儘管我們第四季的礦業銷售額有所下滑，但我們仍然相信，我們對礦業客戶的銷售額將逐步回升。我們的礦業銷售不穩定，因此各季度之間可能會存在很大差異。

Energy & Transportation was a mixed bag due to the diversity of our end markets. North American onshore oil and gas activity remained depressed. As we expected, both solar and rail had a solid fourth quarter. In Construction Industries, end-user demand has softened, particularly in North America. As our earnings guidance indicates, we see some slowing across all 3 primary segments. We are ready to respond quickly to positive or negative developments in our end markets.

由於終端市場的多樣性，能源和運輸業的表現好壞參半。北美陸上石油和天然氣活動仍然低迷。正如我們預期，太陽能和鐵路第四季均表現穩健。在建築業，終端用戶需求已經減弱，尤其是在北美。正如我們的獲利預測顯示，我們發現所有三個主要細分市場都出現了一些放緩。我們已準備好對終端市場的正面或負面發展做出快速反應。

We're doing what we said we would do at our Investor Day in May by achieving our financial targets, continuing to invest in services and expanded offerings and returning cash more consistently to shareholders. Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter declined 8% versus our assumption of down mid-single digits. Volume, primarily caused by changes in dealer inventory, drove a majority of the decline. Dealer inventory for the quarter decreased $700 million compared to an increase of $200 million in the prior year's quarter. End-user demand, which we released this morning, was also softer than we anticipated, down about 4% versus our assumption of flat end-user demand for the quarter. Price realization and currency were unfavorable for the quarter as well.

我們正在履行我們在五月投資者日所承諾的使命，實現我們的財務目標，繼續對服務和擴大產品範圍進行投資，並更持續地向股東返還現金。第四季的銷售額和收入下降了 8%，而我們預計下降幅度為中等個位數。銷售量下降的主要原因是經銷商庫存的變化。本季經銷商庫存減少 7 億美元，去年同期則增加 2 億美元。我們今天早上發布的終端用戶需求也比我們預期的要弱，與我們假設的本季終端用戶需求持平相比下降了約 4%。本季的價格實現和貨幣情況也不理想。

Our fourth quarter operating profit decreased 2% driven primarily by the lower volume. We increased our operating profit margin percent through disciplined cost control and stronger results from financial products. For the fourth quarter, adjusted profit per share was $2.63 compared with $2.55 in 2018.

我們的第四季營業利潤下降 2%，主要原因是銷量下降。我們透過嚴格的成本控制和金融產品的強勁業績提高了營業利潤率。第四季調整後每股利潤為 2.63 美元，而 2018 年為 2.55 美元。

Turning to Slide 4. Sales and revenues for the full year declined about 2% mainly driven by the movements in dealer inventory. Dealer inventory increased $800 million in 2019 versus an increase of $2.3 billion in 2018. End-user demand increased about 2% for the year. The other 2 sales drivers, namely favorable price realization and unfavorable currency, essentially offset each other.

轉到投影片 4。全年銷售額和收入下降約 2％，主要受經銷商庫存變動影響。2019 年經銷商庫存增加了 8 億美元，而 2018 年則增加了 23 億美元。今年終端用戶需求成長了約2%。另外兩個銷售驅動因素，即有利的價格實現和不利的貨幣，基本上相互抵消。

For the full year, operating profit was flat on nearly $1 billion lower sales and revenues. The volume reduction was offset by strong cost control. Favorable price realization more than offset manufacturing cost increases.

全年來看，銷售額和收入下降近 10 億美元，但營業利潤持平。強而有力的成本控制抵消了產量的減少。優惠的價格實現足以抵銷製造成本的增加。

Turning to profit per share. We ended 2019 at an adjusted profit per share of $11.06 compared with $11.22 for 2018.

轉向每股利潤。2019 年底，我們的調整後每股盈餘為 11.06 美元，而 2018 年為 11.22 美元。

Now I'll summarize our 2019 results versus our Investor Day targets and the progress we made this past year executing our strategy, as shown on Slide 5. In operational excellence, we're pleased to report we achieved our best safety performance on record. We delivered a solid operating margin of 15.4% on $53.8 billion of sales and revenues. Our operating margin finished well within the target ranges we set at our Investor Day last May, which you may recall was an improvement of between 3 and 6 percentage points above the historical margins we delivered in the 2010 to 2016 period. Our free cash flow of $5.3 billion was also within our Investor Day target range.

現在，我將總結我們 2019 年的業績與投資者日目標以及我們在過去一年執行策略所取得的進展，如投影片 5 所示。在卓越營運方面，我們很高興地報告，我們取得了有史以來最好的安全績效。我們的銷售額和收入達到 538 億美元，營業利潤率達到 15.4%。我們的營業利潤率遠高於我們在去年 5 月投資者日設定的目標範圍，您可能還記得，這比我們在 2010 年至 2016 年期間的歷史利潤率提高了 3 至 6 個百分點。我們的 53 億美元自由現金流也處於投資者日目標範圍內。

We returned $6.2 billion or about 115% of our 2019 free cash flow to shareholders in dividend and share repurchases. That includes the 20% dividend increase we announced at Investor Day, which reflected our confidence in the company's ability to deliver improved cash flows through the cycles and our intention to return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders. We reduced our quarterly average diluted shares outstanding by about 9% since the first quarter of 2018.

我們以股利和股票回購的方式向股東返還了 62 億美元，約佔 2019 年自由現金流的 115%。其中包括我們在投資者日宣布的20%的股息成長，這反映了我們對公司在周期內實現改善現金流的能力的信心，以及我們將幾乎所有自由現金流返還給股東的意圖。自 2018 年第一季以來，我們將季度平均稀釋流通股數減少了約 9%。

Our services revenues increased 2% and were around $18 billion in 2019. We indicated during our Investor Day in May that our path to doubling services revenues to $28 billion from our 2016 baseline would not be linear. And we continue to invest in services, including expanding our digital capabilities to meet this target by 2026.

2019 年我們的服務收入成長了 2%，達到約 180 億美元。我們在五月的投資者日上表示，將服務收入從 2016 年的基準上翻倍至 280 億美元並不是一條直線。我們將繼續投資於服務，包括擴展我們的數位化能力，以在 2026 年前實現這一目標。

Please turn to Slide 6. At the center of our strategy is profitable growth. We made good progress this year on all 3 elements of the strategy: operational excellence, expanded offerings and services.

請翻到幻燈片 6。我們的策略核心是獲利成長。今年，我們在該策略的所有三個要素上都取得了良好進展：卓越營運、擴大產品和服務。

Beginning with operational excellence. As I mentioned earlier, we achieved our best safety performance on record. Yet even one injury is one too many as we want all of our employees to go home safely every day. We're proactively managing our production levels, and our lead times are now at targeted levels for the majority of our products. This allows us to respond more quickly to both positive or negative changes in demand. Shorter lead times also allow our dealers to carry less inventory, which helps dampen the overall impact of economic cycles.

從卓越營運開始。正如我之前提到的，我們取得了有史以來最好的安全表現。然而，即使一次受傷也是太多了，因為我們希望所有員工每天都能安全回家。我們正在積極管理我們的生產水平，現在我們大多數產品的交貨時間都已達到目標水平。這使我們能夠對需求的正面或負面變​​化做出更快地反應。較短的交貨時間還能減少我們的經銷商的庫存，有助於減輕經濟週期的整體影響。

Turning to expanded offerings. One of our most successful areas in our GC line, where we've launched 6 new models in 2019 or 11 new models to date. These new GC products, including excavators, articulated trucks, motor graders, wheel loaders and paving products, have broadened our product line to provide customers a full range of choices when determining the best machine for their various applications.

轉向擴大產品範圍。這是我們 GC 系列中最成功的領域之一，我們在 2019 年推出了 6 款新車型，迄今已推出 11 款新車型。這些新的 GC 產品包括挖土機、鉸接式卡車、平地機、輪式裝載機和鋪路產品，擴大了我們的產品線，為客戶在確定適合其各種應用的最佳機器時提供了全方位的選擇。

In Energy & Transportation, the team launched large generator sets that burn lean methane created as a by-product of the mining process. The CAT G3516C uses methane that could otherwise be vented to the atmosphere, thereby reducing the mine's greenhouse gas emissions. These engines are capable of burning relatively low concentrations of methane while reliably providing the engines full power at high efficiency. Customers appreciate the value of uncompromised engine performance over a wide range of gas quality.

在能源與交通領域，團隊推出了大型發電機組，燃燒採礦過程中產生的副產品貧甲烷。CAT G3516C 使用原本會排放到大氣中的甲烷，從而減少礦井的溫室氣體排放。這些引擎能夠燃燒相對較低濃度的甲烷，同時可靠地以高效率為引擎提供全部功率。客戶欣賞各種氣體品質條件下引擎性能不受影響的價值。

Finally, we reached some significant milestones with autonomous solutions in 2019. We continue to believe we're at a tipping point for adoption of autonomy in mining. In 2019, the number of mining trucks running Cat's autonomous solutions rose to 275, an increase of 48% over 2018. Our autonomous solutions are now working for 7 customers across 11 sites on 3 continents. Some customers have reported productivity benefits of up to 30% and have also reported positive enhancements to safety. Our customers are focusing on improving performance across their sites, so we expanded our automated solutions to include a broader portfolio of trucks, drills, tractors and underground mining products.

最後，我們在 2019 年憑藉自主解決方案取得了一些重要的里程碑。我們始終相信，我們正處於採礦業採用自動化的轉折點。2019 年，運行 Cat 自動駕駛解決方案的採礦卡車數量上升至 275 輛，比 2018 年增長了 48%。我們的自主解決方案目前正在為三大洲 11 個站點的 7 個客戶提供服務。一些客戶報告說生產效率提高了 30%，安全性也得到了積極的提升。我們的客戶專注於提高其整個站點的效能，因此我們擴展了自動化解決方案，以包括更廣泛的卡車、鑽孔機、拖拉機和地下採礦產品組合。

We know many of you will be in Las Vegas at CONEXPO in March and at MINExpo in September. We look forward to showcasing many of our new products and services at these exhibitions.

我們知道你們中的許多人將於 3 月前往拉斯維加斯參加 CONEXPO 展會，並於 9 月前往拉斯維加斯參加 MINExpo 展會。我們期待在這些展覽會上展示我們的許多新產品和服務。

Services are a very important element of our strategy. In 2019, one of our primary goals was to improve parts availability to minimize customers' downtime. We are help helping dealers better forecast customer demand through advanced analytics, which enables them to improve parts availability. Services are a key differentiator for many of our businesses, particularly when we help customers avoid unplanned downtime.

服務是我們策略的一個非常重要的元素。2019 年，我們的主要目標之一是提高零件可用性，以最大限度地減少客戶的停機時間。我們透過進階分析幫助經銷商更好地預測客戶需求，從而提高零件的可用性。服務是我們許多業務的關鍵差異化因素，特別是當我們幫助客戶避免計劃外停機時。

In 2019, we achieved our target of connecting 1 million assets by year-end. Thanks to investments we've made during the past several years, we now have one of the largest fleets of connected assets that's in the industries we serve. Connected products, such as Cat and non-Cat assets provide rich data, including operating hours, location and product health, enabling customers to better manage and plan their maintenance. Having critical mass in connectivity enables us to work with customers in a very personalized way. Connecting assets also improve dealer capabilities, such as remote troubleshooting that can reduce technician time and provide increased customer uptime. We'll continue to connect new products coming out of our factories.

2019年，我們實現了年底連結100萬資產的目標。由於我們在過去幾年中的投資，我們現在擁有我們所服務行業中最大的聯網資產車隊之一。連網產品（例如 Cat 和非 Cat 資產）提供豐富的數據，包括運行時間、位置和產品健康狀況，使客戶能夠更好地管理和規劃他們的維護。擁有臨界規模的連接能力使我們能夠以非常個人化的方式與客戶合作。連接資產還可以提高經銷商的能力，例如遠端故障排除可以減少技術人員的時間並增加客戶的正常運作時間。我們將繼續發布我們工廠生產的新產品。

Turning to Slide 7. Today, we established 2020 profit per share guidance of $8.50 to $10 compared with our 2019 adjusted profit per share of $11.06. Our planning assumptions for Machinery, Energy & Transportation are that dealers will reduce their inventories by about $1 billion to $1.5 billion, that end-user demand will decline by about 4% to 9% compared to 2019 and that services sales will grow modestly. Global economic conditions are very fluid due to a variety of factors. We will continue to closely monitor our environment and be ready to respond quickly to positive or negative changes in demand.

轉到第 7 張投影片。今天，我們制定了 2020 年每股利潤預期為 8.50 美元至 10 美元，而 2019 年調整後的每股利潤為 11.06 美元。我們對機械、能源和運輸業的規劃假設是：經銷商將減少約 10 億至 15 億美元的庫存，終端用戶需求將與 2019 年相比下降約 4% 至 9%，服務銷售將小幅增長。由於多種因素，全球經濟狀況非常不穩定。我們將繼續密切監視我們的環境，並準備對需求的正面或負面變​​化做出快速反應。

Our 2020 outlook includes normal restructuring as well as a $200 million placeholder for strategic restructuring actions. We plan to address a small number of products that are not delivering sufficient OPACC and to ensure we're allocating resources towards those areas with the best opportunity for future profitable growth.

我們對 2020 年的展望包括正常重組以及 2 億美元的策略重組行動佔位符。我們計劃解決少數未提供足夠 OPACC 的產品問題，並確保將資源分配給未來最有可能實現獲利成長的領域。

Meanwhile, we will continue to invest in services and expanded offerings to improve the value Caterpillar and our dealers provide to our customers. Andrew will provide more details on the outlook assumptions later in the call.

同時，我們將繼續投資於服務和擴大產品範圍，以提高卡特彼勒和我們的代理商為客戶提供的價值。安德魯將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關前景假設的更多細節。

Our cash flow remains strong. During 2019, we paid dividends of $2.1 billion. As we said at our 2019 Investor Day, we expect to increase our dividend by at least a high single-digit percent during 2020, continuing our heritage as a dividend aristocrat. We repurchased $4 billion of common stock in 2019. We expect continued strong cash flow in 2020, and share repurchases should be roughly similar to 2018 and 2019 levels. This is in line with our commitment to more consistently return substantially all free cash flow to shareholders.

我們的現金流依然強勁。2019年，我們支付了21億美元的股利。正如我們在 2019 年投資者日所說的那樣，我們預計在 2020 年將股息至少增加個位數百分比，延續我們作為股息貴族的傳統。我們在 2019 年回購了價值 40 億美元的普通股。我們預計 2020 年現金流將持續強勁，股票回購應與 2018 年和 2019 年的水準大致相同。這符合我們更持續地將所有自由現金流返還給股東的承諾。

In 2020 -- turning to Slide 8. In 2020, we continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth. In the area of expanded offerings, we plan to roll out 5 additional GC models this year as we continue to invest in new products. Within operational excellence, we are focused on improving our cost structure with a focus on back office and procurement costs.

2020年－翻到第 8 張幻燈片。 2020年，我們將繼續執行獲利成長策略。在擴展產品範圍方面，我們計劃今年推出另外 5 種 GC 型號，同時繼續投資新產品。在卓越營運方面，我們專注於改善成本結構，並專注於後台和採購成本。

Finally, in services, we will continue to invest in our digital capabilities so we can fully leverage our connected assets and are investing in other areas such as customer-focused designs.

最後，在服務方面，我們將繼續投資於我們的數位化能力，以便我們能夠充分利用我們的互聯資產，並在以客戶為中心的設計等其他領域進行投資。

Now let me close by sharing our industry expectations for 2020 on Slide 9. In Construction Industries, we expect slowing end-user demand. In North America, while we expect stable spending on state and local infrastructure, residential and nonresidential construction is expected to decline.

最後，請容許我在第 9 張投影片上分享我們對 2020 年的產業期望。在建築業，我們預期終端用戶需求將會放緩。在北美，雖然我們預計州和地方基礎設施支出將保持穩定，但住宅和非住宅建築預計將下降。

Turning to Asia/Pacific. We expect our sales in China to be flat to down 5%. We are actively monitoring the coronavirus for any potential impact. We expect EAME construction activity will be flat to slightly up, with growth in Europe slowing and Africa and the Middle East beginning to recover from low levels. The recovery in Latin America should continue, although from a low base, led by Brazil. As a result of these conditions, we expect that dealers, particularly in North America, will further reduce their inventories.

轉向亞太地區。我們預計在中國的銷售額將持平或下降 5%。我們正在積極監測冠狀病毒是否有任何潛在影響。我們預計歐洲、非洲和中東地區的建築活動將持平或略有上升，其中歐洲的成長將放緩，非洲和中東地區的建築活動將開始從低水平復甦。拉丁美洲的復甦應會持續下去，儘管基數較低，但由巴西引領。由於這些情況，我們預計經銷商，特別是北美的經銷商將進一步減少庫存。

For Resource Industries, we expect end-user demand to be roughly flat. In nonresidential construction, we anticipate lower 2020 end-user demand. In mining, we expect mid- single-digit growth for end-user demand as quoting activity continues to be positive and commodity prices generally remain supportive of investment. Customers remain cautious and have more flexibility on order timing due to our improved lead times.

對於資源產業，我們預期終端用戶需求將大致持平。在非住宅建築方面，我們預計 2020 年終端用戶需求將會下降。在採礦業方面，我們預計終端用戶需求將實現中等個位數成長，因為報價活動持續保持積極態勢，且大宗商品價格總體上仍對投資有利。由於我們的交貨時間縮短，客戶仍保持謹慎並在訂單時間方面擁有更大的靈活性。

We continue to believe there will be a gradual recovery in sales to mining customers. We anticipate Resource Industries sales will be softer in the first half of 2020, with possible upside in the second half as mining confidence improves. As a result of these conditions, we expect dealers will further reduce their inventories.

我們仍然相信對礦業客戶的銷售將逐步復甦。我們預計，資源產業的銷售在 2020 年上半年將會疲軟，但隨著採礦業信心的增強，下半年可能會上漲。由於這些情況，我們預計經銷商將進一步減少庫存。

Turning to Energy & Transportation. We expect modestly lower overall demand. In oil and gas, we expect end-user demand to weaken in North America for well servicing, recip gas compression and drilling. Oil price volatility and capital discipline by our customers are both contributing factors. Solar sales are expected to be flat to slightly up in 2020. Industrial demand is expected to decline modestly mainly led by Europe. We expect power generation and transportation to grow modestly this year.

轉向能源和交通。我們預計整體需求將略有下降。在石油和天然氣領域，我們預期北美終端用戶對油井服務、往復式氣體壓縮和鑽井的需求將會減弱。油價波動和顧客的資本紀律都是促成因素。預計 2020 年太陽能銷售額將持平或略有上升。預計工業需求將小幅下降，主要受歐洲影響。我們預計今年發電和運輸將溫和成長。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andrew for a closer look at our financials.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯，讓他仔細看看我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 10 with total company results for the fourth quarter. I'll cover the segment results for both the quarter and the full year. Then I'll walk you through our 2020 guidance and close with some comments on cash flow and capital deployment.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。我將從投影片 10 開始介紹第四季的整體公司業績。我將介紹本季和全年的分部業績。然後，我將向您介紹我們 2020 年的指導，並在最後就現金流和資本配置發表一些評論。

In total, sales and revenues for the fourth quarter declined by 8% to $13.1 billion. Operating profit decreased less than sales and was down 2% to $1.9 billion. Adjusted profit per share for the quarter increased by 3% to $2.63, mostly reflecting the benefit of the lower-than-expected tax rate. Note that this year's adjusted profit per share results include restructuring expense whilst last year's excludes it. Mark-to-market adjustments were similar in both periods, about $470 million in 2019 and about $500 million in 2018.

總體而言，第四季的銷售額和收入下降了 8%，至 131 億美元。營業利潤降幅小於銷售額，下降 2% 至 19 億美元。本季調整後每股利潤成長 3% 至 2.63 美元，主要反映低於預期的稅率帶來的好處。請注意，今年的調整後每股獲利結果包括重組費用，而去年的調整後每股盈餘結果不包括重組費用。兩個時期的市價調整幅度相似，2019 年約 4.7 億美元，2018 年約 5 億美元。

As you see on Slide 11, sales decreased by $1.2 billion in the quarter. This result was below our expectation of a mid-single-digit decrease in sales in the quarter. While price and currency was slightly unfavorable, the primary factor was a 7% decrease in volume.

正如您在幻燈片 11 上看到的，本季銷售額減少了 12 億美元。這結果低於我們對該季度銷售額中個位數下降的預期。雖然價格和貨幣略有不利影響，但主要因素是交易量下降了 7%。

As we've discussed in the third quarter, we expected dealers to reduce their inventories partly due to our improved lead times, which allow dealers to hold less inventory; and partly due to uncertainty in the global economy, resulting from trade tensions and other factors.

正如我們在第三季度所討論的那樣，我們預計經銷商將減少庫存，部分原因是我們的交貨時間縮短了，這使得經銷商持有的庫存更少；部分原因是貿易緊張等因素導致全球經濟的不確定性。

This morning, we released the quarter's retail sales data, which showed a decrease in retail sales to users of 4%. We had anticipated that retail sales across all 3 primary segments would be flat, but Construction Industries sales to users declined by 3%, Resource Industries declined by 10%, and Energy & Transportation sales to users declined by 3%. This weaker-than-expected end-user demand meant that whilst we cut back our shipments to dealers, dealer inventories came down by $200 million less than we expected or around $700 million in the quarter.

今天早上，我們發布了本季的零售額數據，數據顯示，面向用戶的零售額下降了4%。我們曾預期所有三個主要細分市場的零售額將持平，但建築業對用戶的銷售額下降了 3%，資源行業下降了 10%，能源和運輸對用戶的銷售額下降了 3%。終端用戶需求弱於預期意味著，雖然我們減少了對經銷商的出貨量，但經銷商庫存比我們預期的少了 2 億美元，即本季約 7 億美元。

This $700 million reduction in dealer inventory compares to a $200 million increase in dealer inventories in the fourth quarter of [2018] (corrected by the company after the call). The movement in dealer inventories, together with the reduction in end-user demand, explain the volume decline in the quarter.

經銷商庫存減少 7 億美元，而 [2018 年] 第四季度經銷商庫存增加 2 億美元（公司在電話會議後進行了更正）。經銷商庫存的變動，加上終端用戶需求的減少，導致了本季銷售量的下降。

Order backlog was weaker at the end of the year, down $900 million across the segments. I know many of you focus on backlog. However, I want to remind you that except for our direct businesses, mainly solar and rail, the backlog represents dealer demand. That means it takes into account dealers' view of what inventory they need to hold in addition to their expectations of end-user demand. We view our retail sales data as a better indicator of demand over backlog. And whilst there's a lag, we believe retail sales data better represents underlying customer behavior.

年底訂單積壓情況較差，各部門訂單積壓量共下降 9 億美元。我知道你們當中有很多人都關注積壓問題。不過，我想提醒大家，除了我們的直接業務（主要是太陽能和鐵路）外，積壓訂單代表經銷商的需求。這意味著，除了考慮經銷商對最終用戶需求的預期之外，它還會考慮經銷商對需要持有的庫存的看法。我們認為零售銷售數據比積壓數據更能反映需求。儘管存在滯後，但我們相信零售銷售數據能夠更好地反映潛在的客戶行為。

In addition to sales to users, we have other indicators of customer health. For example, we look at past dues at Cat Financial, which actually improved in the quarter. That said, we saw a small uptick in repossessions of equipment in units and in dollars. Auction prices and used prices are seeing downward pressure. These factors, plus the low retail sales, gives us a very mixed picture. We will, therefore, stay prepared for an acceleration or deceleration in demand.

除了向用戶的銷售情況外，我們還有其他客戶健康狀況指標。例如，我們查看了 Cat Financial 的逾期款項，發現本季該款項的逾期情況實際上有所改善。儘管如此，我們看到設備回收數量和美元數量均略有上升。拍賣價格和二手價格面臨下行壓力。這些因素加上低零售額，為我們帶來了複雜的局面。因此，我們將為需求的加速或減速做好準備。

Moving to Slide 12. Operating profit for the fourth quarter fell by 2% to $1.85 -- $1.85 billion. These figures are on a like-for-like basis as both years include restructuring expense.

移至投影片 12。第四季營業利潤下降2%至18.5億美元至18.5億美元。由於這兩年都包括重組費用，因此這些數據是按同比計算的。

Let me walk you through the changes in operating profit before discussing the changes in operating margin. Volume was the largest reason for the decline in operating profit. Price was also negative due to geographic mix and programs we started to stimulate demand. Favorable material and freight costs were offset by adverse warranty expenses, which continue to impact us. As we said in October, we had some targeted product quality issues, which we're continuing to address.

在討論營業利益率的變化之前，讓我先向您介紹一下營業利潤的變化。銷量是營業利潤下降的最大原因。由於地理組合和我們開始刺激需求的計劃，價格也出現負成長。有利的材料和運費成本被不利的保固費用所抵消，這繼續對我們產生影響。正如我們 10 月所說的那樣，我們遇到了一些有針對性的產品品質問題，我們正在繼續解決這些問題。

Favorable short-term compensation expense and better cost control had a positive impact on operating profit in the fourth quarter. Finally, Financial Products had a strong quarter too. These tailwinds more than offset the negative impacts on operating margin I mentioned a moment ago. This meant that the operating margin improved by 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

有利的短期薪資費用和更好的成本控制對第四季度的營業利潤產生了積極影響。最後，金融產品本季也表現強勁。這些順風因素遠遠抵消了我剛才提到的對營業利益率的負面影響。這意味著營業利潤率比上一季提高了 100 個基點。

Now let me discuss the individual segment's results for the fourth quarter and full year. First, on Slide 13. Fourth quarter sales of Energy & Transportation declined by 5% driven by weakness in oil and gas and lower intersegment sales. Slowing demand for reciprocating engines in North America, used to power gas compression applications, and lower turbine project deliveries contributed to an 11% decrease in low oil and gas sales. We saw a 5% increase in transportation as marine sales in EAME improved. Power generation and industrial sales also improved slightly in the quarter.

現在，我來討論一下第四季和全年各部門的業績。首先，第 13 張投影片。由於石油和天然氣業務疲軟以及分部間銷售額下降，能源與運輸業務第四季銷售額下降 5%。北美用於驅動氣體壓縮應用的往復式引擎需求放緩以及渦輪機專案交付量的下降，導致低油氣銷售額下降了 11%。隨著歐洲、非洲和中東地區海運銷售的成長，運輸量增加了 5%。本季發電量和工業銷售量也略有改善。

The segment's fourth quarter profit increased by 8% driven by lower short-term incentive expense and lower manufacturing costs, which more than offset the impact of the volume decline. Segment operating margin improved by 240 basis points to 19.6%.

該部門第四季利潤成長 8%，主要由於短期激勵費用降低和製造成本降低，抵消了銷量下降的影響。分部營業利益率提升240個基點，至19.6%。

For the year, Energy & Transportation sales decreased by 3%, reflecting slower sales in oil and gas and lower intersegment sales. However, segment profit remained about flat in 2019 as the lower sales volume was offset by reduced short-term incentive expense. The segment margin improved to 17.7%, an increase of 40 basis points versus 2018.

本年度，能源與運輸銷售量下降了 3%，反映石油和天然氣銷售放緩以及分部間銷售下降。不過，由於銷售量下降被短期激勵費用的減少所抵消，2019 年分部利潤基本持平。該部門利潤率提高至17.7％，較2018年增加40個基點。

Now turning to Slide 14. In Construction Industries, sales decreased by 12% in the fourth quarter due to lower volume. Dealers in North America and EAME carried on adjusting their inventories. We continue to see Latin American sales increase off a low base, while Asia/Pacific remained about flat. Within Asia/Pacific, unfavorable price was mostly offset by higher volumes in a few countries. Sales in China rose in the fourth quarter driven by dealers' desires to build inventory ahead of an earlier Chinese New Year.

現在轉到投影片 14。在建築業，由於銷量下降，第四季度銷售額下降了 12%。北美和歐洲、非洲和中東地區的經銷商持續調整庫存。我們繼續看到拉丁美洲的銷售額在低基數上實現成長，而亞太地區的銷售額則基本持平。在亞太地區，不利的價格大部分被少數國家的較高銷售所抵銷。由於經銷商希望在農曆新年提前到來之前增加庫存，中國第四季的銷售量出現成長。

The segment's fourth quarter profit margin were 170 basis points to 13.1%. The volume decrease and low price realization were partially offset by savings from material costs and short-term incentive expense. The unfavorable price realization reflected changes in geographic mix that we had anticipated, including reductions in dealer inventory in North America and some programs we put in place to stimulate end-user demand.

該部門第四季利潤率為170個基點，至13.1%。產量下降和低價實現部分被材料成本和短期激勵費用的節省所抵消。不利的價格實現反映了我們預期的地理組合變化，包括北美經銷商庫存的減少以及我們為刺激終端用戶需求而實施的一些計劃。

On a full year basis, Construction Industries declined by 3%. Margins finished at 17.4%, a healthy level, yet a decrease of 60 basis points versus 2018. The decline was driven by the impacts of volume, manufacturing inefficiencies and an unfavorable mix of products, partially offset by favorable price realization.

從全年來看，建築業下降了 3%。利潤率最終達到 17.4%，處於健康水平，但與 2018 年相比下降了 60 個基點。下滑的主要原因是產量、製造效率低下以及產品組合不佳，但有利的價格實現部分抵消了這些影響。

Changing to Slide 15. Resource Industries sales decreased by 14% in the fourth quarter due to reductions in dealer inventories and lower end-user demand. Dealers decreased inventories in the fourth quarter of this year after increasing their inventories in the same period of 2018. The inventory reductions taken in the fourth quarter were primarily related to nonresidential construction to better to align end-to-end user demand.

更改為投影片 15。由於經銷商庫存減少和終端用戶需求下降，資源產業第四季銷售額下降了 14%。經銷商在2018年同期增加庫存後，今年第四季減少了庫存。第四季度的庫存減少主要與非住宅建築有關，以更好地協調端到端用戶需求。

Turning to mining. We've seen continued disciplined CapEx spend by miners and have experienced longer delays between deal signings and the placement of orders. Lower volume was the primary driver of the 340 basis point decrease in the segment's profit margin to 10.9% for the quarter. For the full year, Resource Industries sales were about flat. Profit margin improved by 30 basis points to 15.9% as favorable price realization offset the impact of increased manufacturing costs, including high warranty expense.

轉向採礦。我們看到礦業公司的資本支出持續保持紀律性，簽署交易和下訂單之間的延遲時間也變得更長。銷量下降是該部門本季利潤率下降 340 個基點至 10.9% 的主要原因。就全年而言，資源產業的銷售額基本上持平。利潤率提高了 30 個基點，達到 15.9%，因為優惠的價格抵消了製造成本增加（包括高額保固費用）的影響。

Moving to Slide 16. We were pleased with the results from Financial Products, which increased its profitability by $181 million in the fourth quarter versus a challenging quarter a year ago. A lower allowance rate in 2019 was the main driver of the improvement. Past dues were down at the end of 2019 as well. The Financial Products segment's profit rose by $327 million for the full year to $832 million.

移至投影片 16。我們對金融產品部門的業績感到滿意，與去年同期充滿挑戰的一個季度相比，該部門第四季度的盈利增長了 1.81 億美元。2019 年較低的津貼率是推動這項改善的主要因素。2019 年底逾期款項也有所下降。金融產品部門全年利潤成長 3.27 億美元，達到 8.32 億美元。

Free cash flow for the quarter remained strong at $1.9 billion. We saw a significant reduction in our inventory levels in the fourth quarter as we reduced production levels in our plants. For the full year, free cash flow was $5.3 billion, excluding the discretionary pension contribution made in the third quarter.

本季自由現金流保持強勁，達到 19 億美元。由於我們減少了工廠的生產水平，第四季度的庫存水準顯著下降。全年自由現金流為 53 億美元，不包括第三季的自由支配退休金繳款。

Now I'll talk about the outlook on Slide 17. I'll share the full year outlook, a few key planning assumptions and some observations on phasing in 2020. We anticipate profit per share of $8.50 to $10 in 2020 compared with an adjusted $11.06 in 2019. The range reflects current uncertainty in the global economy, which is causing customers to delay or defer purchases of large capital goods. We no longer give sales guidance, but I would like to share a few of our planning assumptions which we have used to drive our profit per share guidance for 2020.

現在我將在第 17 張投影片上講述展望。我將分享全年展望、一些關鍵的規劃假設以及對 2020 年分階段實施的一些觀察。我們預計 2020 年每股利潤為 8.50 美元至 10 美元，而 2019 年調整後每股利潤為 11.06 美元。該範圍反映了當前全球經濟的不確定性，這導致客戶推遲或延期購買大型資本貨物。我們不再提供銷售指導，但我想分享一些我們用來推動 2020 年每股獲利指引的規劃假設。

First, we're assuming low end-user demand of between 4% and 9%. We expect ME&T services revenues to increase modestly as we continue our journey towards $28 billion in 2026. The full year guidance we put together also assumes that pricing is about flat and that dealers would decrease their inventories by between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in 2020. Keep in mind that dealers are independent entities and control their own inventories. Given the slowdown in customer demand and the increased availability of product due to lower lead times, we do expect dealers will reduce their inventory levels further. This reduction is expected to be led by Construction Industries but will also impact Resource Industries. I will talk a little bit more on how we expect dealer buying patterns to impact our phasing in 2020 in a moment.

首先，我們假設低端用戶需求在 4% 到 9% 之間。我們預計，ME&T 服務收入將小幅成長，並將繼續朝著 2026 年 280 億美元的目標邁進。我們制定的全年指引也假設價格基本上持平，經銷商將在 2020 年減少 10 億至 15 億美元的庫存。請記住，經銷商是獨立實體，控制自己的庫存。鑑於客戶需求放緩和交貨時間縮短導致產品供應增加，我們預計經銷商將進一步降低庫存水準。預計此次減幅將主要由建築業主導，但也將影響資源產業。稍後我將進一步談談我們預計經銷商的購買模式將如何影響我們 2020 年的分階段實施。

As Jim has said, we will make sure production is scaled to meet demand, and we are ready to respond to signals from the market positively or negatively. The top and bottom end of the profit range roughly correspond to the top and bottom of the ranges for declines in sales to users and dealer inventories. We expect material costs to decline this year, including the impact of lower steel prices, procurement savings and lower freight. We also expect the increases in warranty costs to moderate in 2020. We're committed to doing all we can to maintain a competitive and flexible cost structure, and we're tightly controlling discretionary spending.

正如吉姆所說，我們將確保生產規模滿足需求，並準備對市場發出的正面或負面訊號做出反應。利潤範圍的頂端和底端大致對應於用戶銷售和經銷商庫存下降範圍的頂端和底端。我們預計今年材料成本將會下降，包括鋼材價格下跌、採購節省和運費下降的影響。我們也預計 2020 年保固成本的成長將會放緩。我們致力於竭盡全力保持具有競爭力和靈活性的成本結構，並嚴格控制可自由支配的開支。

As part of that, we're moving toward the outsourcing of some of our back-office functions, which is expected to produce run rate savings beginning in the fall. We're also working to improve our procurement processes as a way to reduce direct and indirect spending. These changes are not immediate as we realize benefits after new contracts begin and better prices flow through into inventory.

作為其中的一部分，我們正在轉向外包部分後台職能，預計從秋季開始將帶來營運成本的節省。我們也致力於改善採購流程，以減少直接和間接支出。這些變化並不是立即發生的，因為我們在新合約開始生效並且更優惠的價格流入庫存後才實現收益。

Last year, restructuring expense was $236 million, slightly above our expectation. This year, we expect normalized level of restructuring expense. In addition, we're looking at taking strategic restructuring actions relating to certain products that are not realizing sufficient OPACC. We put a $200 million placeholder for that in our guidance, and we'll keep you updated through the year as we gain more certainty around the actual costs. Keep in mind that we also expect a headwind from normalized incentive compensation expense in 2020.

去年，重組費用為 2.36 億美元，略高於我們的預期。今年，我們預計重組費用將恢復正常水準。此外，我們正在考慮對未實現足夠 OPACC 的某些產品採取策略性重組行動。我們在指引中為此預留了 2 億美元的空間，隨著我們對實際成本有了更多的確定性，我們將在全年向您更新最新情況。請記住，我們也預期 2020 年正常化的激勵薪酬費用將帶來阻力。

We're committed to delivering our Investor Day targets of improving operating margins by between 3 and 6 percentage points throughout the cycle compared with as our historical performance in 2010 to 2016. We believe that our 2020 plan will enable us to deliver this, while at the same time, continuing to invest in the greatest opportunities to drive long-term profitable growth. Based on the lower tax rate in 2019, we now expect the effective tax rate for 2020 to be around 25%.

我們致力於實現投資者日的目標，即在整個週期內將營業利潤率與 2010 年至 2016 年的歷史業績相比提高 3 至 6 個百分點。我們相信，我們的2020年計劃將使我們能夠實現這一目標，同時繼續投資於推動長期獲利成長的最大機會。基於 2019 年較低的稅率，我們現在預計 2020 年的實際稅率將在 25% 左右。

As you build your quarterly earnings models for 2020, I want to remind you of a few things that may impact our normal seasonable patterns. Overall, dealers increased their inventory by $1.8 billion in the first half of 2019. This occurred principally in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. We expect a modest increase in dealer inventory in Construction Industries in the first quarter ahead of the normal selling season. That will be worked down by the end of the first half. In Resource Industries, dealer inventories rose in the first half of 2019, but we expect a modest reduction in the first half of 2020.

在您建立 2020 年季度收益模型時，我想提醒您一些可能會影響我們正常季節性模式的事情。整體而言，經銷商在2019年上半年增加了18億美元的庫存。這主要發生在建築業和資源業。我們預計，在正常銷售季節到來之前，第一季建築業經銷商庫存將小幅增加。這個問題將在上半年結束前解決。在資源產業，經銷商庫存在 2019 年上半年有所增加，但我們預計 2020 年上半年將小幅減少。

Energy & Transportation has a different seasonable pattern with sales and revenues in solar and rail being more back-end loaded. We expect oil and gas sales to be impacted in the first half as we had a significant backlog of orders at the beginning of 2019, which is different from the current situation. As a reminder, reduced volume also impacts leverage so that will be a factor in the first half of the year.

能源和運輸業的季節性模式有所不同，太陽能和鐵路行業的銷售和收入更集中在後端。我們預計上半年油氣銷售將受到影響，因為我們在2019年初有大量訂單積壓，這與目前的情況不同。提醒一下，交易量的減少也會影響槓桿率，因此這將成為上半年的因素。

Moving on to cash flow and capital structure on Slide 18. Working capital improved in the fourth quarter as we reduced levels of inventory held by the company. We expect working capital to be neutral to positive in 2020. The reductions in Caterpillar inventory, together with an expected lower payout of short-term incentive compensation, should help offset the lower operating profit. Recall that the 2019 payout was against the results for 2018, which was a record year. We also do not anticipate any U.S. pension contributions in 2020.

轉到投影片 18 上的現金流量和資本結構。由於我們減少了公司持有的庫存水平，第四季度營運資本有所改善。我們預期 2020 年營運資本將維持中性至正值。卡特彼勒庫存的減少，加上預期的短期激勵薪酬支出減少，應有助於抵消營業利潤的下降。回想一下，2019 年的支出是與 2018 年的業績相抵觸的，2018 年是創紀錄的一年。我們預計 2020 年美國退休金也不會有任何繳款。

CapEx in 2019 was $1.1 billion. We expect CapEx in 2020 to be around $1.2 billion. Our commitment at the Investor Day was to improve our free cash flow by between $1 billion and $2 billion through the cycle versus our historical performance in 2010 to 2016. This, together with a strong cash position, which was $8.3 billion at year-end, has enabled us to increase the quarterly dividend by 20% this year and be in the market more consistently for share repurchases. As Jim noted, we've returned $6.2 billion of cash to shareholders in 2019 through dividends and share buybacks. We remain committed to returning substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders through the cycles. As we look ahead, we expect to increase the dividend by high single digits in 2020 and the next 3 years after that, and based on our expected strong cash flow, to repurchase a similar level of shares in 2020 as we had done in 2018 to 2019.

2019 年的資本支出為 11 億美元。我們預計 2020 年的資本支出約為 12 億美元。我們在投資者日上的承諾是，與 2010 年至 2016 年的歷史業績相比，整個週期內我們的自由現金流將增加 10 億至 20 億美元。再加上強勁的現金狀況（年底為 83 億美元），我們今年的季度股息得以提高 20%，並且能夠在市場上更持續地進行股票回購。正如吉姆所說，我們在 2019 年透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 62 億美元現金。我們仍然致力於在整個週期中將大部分自由現金流返還給股東。展望未來，我們預計在 2020 年及之後 3 年內將股息提高高個位數，並且基於我們預期的強勁現金流，在 2020 年回購與 2018 年至 2019 年類似水平的股票。

So finally, let's turn to Slide 19 and recap today's key points. 2019 sales and revenues declined by 2% to $53.8 billion. Operating profit was down 2%, and profit per share totaled $10.74 or $11.06 on an adjusted basis. We've established a 2020 outlook range of $8.50 to $10 profit per share based on expectations for end-user demand to decline between 4% and 9%.

最後，讓我們翻到第 19 張投影片，回顧今天的重點。2019 年銷售額和收入下降 2% 至 538 億美元。營業利潤下降 2%，每股利潤總計 10.74 美元（調整後為 11.06 美元）。根據終端用戶需求下降 4% 至 9% 的預期，我們確定了 2020 年每股利潤 8.50 美元至 10 美元的預期範圍。

Our top line modeling assumption reflects $1 billion to $1.5 billion of low inventory -- low revenue from dealers further reducing their inventory levels. We're keeping a close eye on production so we can respond quickly. We're working on the competitiveness of our cost structure, and our operating and execution model remains at the center of everything we do.

我們的頂線模型假設反映了 10 億至 15 億美元的低庫存——經銷商的低收入進一步降低了他們的庫存水準。我們密切注意生產情況以便能夠快速做出反應。我們致力於提高成本結構的競爭力，我們的營運和執行模式仍然是我們一切工作的核心。

We will continue to invest in services and expanded offerings. Our overall financial position remains strong, and we expect strong cash flow in 2020 as well. We remain committed to our strategy of profitable growth and deployment of capital back to shareholders through a growing dividend and consistent share repurchases.

我們將繼續投資於服務和擴大產品範圍。我們的整體財務狀況依然強勁，我們預計 2020 年的現金流也將強勁。我們將繼續致力於獲利性成長策略，並透過增加股利和持續回購股票將資本回饋給股東。

With that, I'll hand the call back to Jennifer.

說完這些，我就把電話交還給詹妮弗。

Thank you, Andrew. We will now move to the Q&A portion of the cost. (Operator Instructions) Paul, please begin the Q&A.

謝謝你，安德魯。我們現在進入費用的問答部分。(操作員指示) 保羅，請開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is coming from Ann Duignan of JPMorgan Securities.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Ann Duignan。

So many questions. I don't know how to pick one. But I think I'll focus on pricing. If you could just expand on your flat pricing guidance for 2020, where are you seeing pricing improvement versus pricing degradation? And then you said you increased your marketing programs in Q4 to stimulate demand, but it doesn't look like it's happened. So if you could just talk about pricing across the businesses and across the regions, I'd appreciate it.

有太多問題了。我不知道該如何選擇一個。但我想我會重點關注定價。如果您可以進一步闡述 2020 年的固定價格指導，您認為價格會在哪些方面有所改善，哪些方面則會下降？然後您說您在第四季度增加了行銷計劃以刺激需求，但這似乎並沒有發生。因此，如果您能談談不同企業和不同地區的定價情況，我將不勝感激。

Yes. Thank you. It's Andrew. Yes. So a couple of factors within Q4. As I mentioned, one, geographic mix was a factor as well. So obviously, if you think about the way we price, and particularly North America is a stronger pricing region, and so that geographic mix, given the reduction in inventory, came through on the price line. We expect that to continue as we do reduce deal inventory through 2020. That -- so that will have an impact on pricing, particularly as you look at that mix through the year. So probably, actually, in first half, pricing will be a little bit weaker than we see -- expected for the second half.

是的。謝謝。是安德魯。是的。因此，第四季度中存在幾個因素。正如我所提到的，地理組合也是一個因素。因此顯然，如果你考慮我們的定價方式，特別是北美是一個更強大的定價地區，因此考慮到庫存的減少，地理組合在價格線上得到了體現。我們預計這種情況將持續下去，因為我們將在 2020 年減少交易庫存。這會對定價產生影響，特別是當你觀察全年的組合時。因此實際上，上半年的定價可能會比下半年預期的稍微弱一些。

We have put modest prices increases through. Obviously, we need to see how much of that sticks again, and how much we have to put back into programs. Yes, your point about we didn't see much demand being stimulated, yes, because we did see a reduction in sales to users on the fourth quarter. We believe that our having not actually put that pricing behind, that they may have actually been a little bit worse than that. So that was part of the programs being put in place.

我們已經實行了適度提價。顯然，我們需要看看其中有多少會再次堅持下去，以及我們必須將多少重新投入專案。是的，您說的是我們並沒有看到太多的需求受到刺激，是的，因為我們確實看到第四季度用戶銷售額有所減少。我們認為，由於我們實際上沒有把這個定價考慮進去，所以實際情況可能比這更糟。這是正在實施的計劃的一部分。

I'm sorry. I didn't fully understand your North America question -- answer. You said pricing is stronger in North America or price reductions are greater in North America.

對不起。我沒有完全理解你關於北美的問題和答案。您說北美的定價更高或北美的降價幅度更大。

No. It's the geographic mix. So we have -- as you go through and if you look what's in our pricing line, it includes changes in geographic mix. We base it on a rate per unit. And obviously, North American units tend to have a higher price and prices are because they're higher specced than prices across the rest of the world. So therefore, you do tend to then see a negative price variance coming through as a result of that with low new North American sales.

不。這是地理組合。所以，如果您看一下我們的定價線，您會發現它包括地理組合的變化。我們以每單位費率為基礎。顯然，北美產品的價格往往更高，這是因為它們的規格比世界其他地區的價格更高。因此，由於北美新產品銷售低迷，你往往會看到出現負價格差異。

And just so I'm clear, China pricing is down year-over-year? Is that the expectation going forward? And is it contained to China?

我要明確一點的是，中國的價格年減了嗎？這是未來的期望嗎？是否僅限於中國？

I don't think we've said anything about China pricing. We're talking about China sales. We said we expect China sales to be down to flat to slightly down in 2020. We haven't talked about pricing by territory or market.

我認為我們還沒有談論過中國定價。我們正在談論中國的銷售。我們表示，預計 2020 年中國銷售額將持平或略有下降。我們還沒有討論按地區或市場定價的問題。

And the next question is coming from Joe O'Dea of Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Joe O’Dea。

I wanted to ask about retail sales. And when we look at the trends, it looked like a rather sharp sequential slowing from 3Q into 4Q. And you commented that it was a bigger step-down than you expected. But just in terms of how you interpret those trends and based on conversations you're having with customers and dealers, the degree to which you're able to parse out how much of that is a bit of a spend freeze at the end of the year, the degree to which you have any insight based on January versus noting kind of December demand levels is something that we should be extrapolating going forward.

我想詢問有關零售額的問題。當我們觀察趨勢時，我們發現從第三季到第四季度，經濟出現了相當明顯的連續放緩。您評論說，這是比您預期的更大的降幅。但是就您如何解讀這些趨勢以及根據您與客戶和經銷商的對話而言，您能夠在多大程度上分析出其中有多少是在年底凍結支出，您根據一月份而不是十二月份的需求水平所獲得的見解程度是我們應該推斷的未來的事情。

So really, you have to look at it by our various industries. There's no kind of one answer that covers all of those. And we talked about the fact that in mining, that business can be quite lumpy, and that can be reflected in both our sales and our retail stats as well. Activity in mining continues to be strong, a lot of discussions with customers, lots of quotes. But our customers are being cautious, as we mentioned earlier, but we do expect that slow gradual increase to occur in mining. And we're expecting a stronger 6 months than -- the last 6 months of the year to be stronger than the first 6.

所以實際上，你必須從我們的各個產業來看這個問題。沒有任何一個答案可以涵蓋所有這些問題。我們談到，採礦業的業務可能會相當不穩定，這也可以反映在我們的銷售和零售數據中。採礦活動持續強勁，與客戶進行了大量討論，並獲得了大量報價。但正如我們之前提到的，我們的客戶很謹慎，但我們確實預計採礦業將緩慢逐漸成長。我們預計，今年後六個月的表現將比前六個月更強勁。

In oil and gas, we do anticipate the depressed market conditions in North American onshore production to continue in well servicing, recip gas compression and drilling. We do expect that to continue.

在石油和天然氣領域，我們確實預期北美陸上生產的低迷市場狀況將在油井服務、往復式氣體壓縮和鑽井領域持續下去。我們確實希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

CI is a bit of a mixed bag. Again, we talked about our expectations there for CI. I really don't have anything to add on top of that.

CI 有點混亂。我們再次談論了對 CI 的期望。除此之外我實在沒有什麼可以補充的了。

And the next question is coming from Ross Gilardi of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的羅斯吉拉迪。

Jim, you know this oil and gas business that Caterpillar has a bit better than anybody. And I'm just wondering how your spare parts and service for E&T, both upstream recips and turbines, how they're behaving? I mean were they stable in the fourth quarter? And are you expecting them to be stable within your outlook? I mean, clearly, the new equipment outlook is very soft. But solar has traditionally been able to weather a lot of these downturns. And I'm wondering if you expect the parts and service components of your oil and gas business to remain resilient, particularly in an oversupplied natural gas market.

吉姆，你比任何人都更了解卡特彼勒的石油和天然氣業務。我只是想知道你們為 E&T 提供的備件和服務，包括上游往復式發動機和渦輪機，它們的表現如何？我的意思是他們在第四季表現穩定嗎？您是否期望它們在您的展望中保持穩定？我的意思是，顯然新設備的前景非常疲軟。但從傳統上來說，太陽能能夠抵禦許多此類衰退。我想知道您是否預期石油和天然氣業務的零件和服務零件能夠保持彈性，特別是在天然氣市場供應過剩的情況下。

Yes. Starting with solar. As we indicated, solar had a solid fourth quarter, both on the OE and on the service side. And we do expect their service sales going forward to remain resilient. That's been proved many, many times. So we do expect that to be the case.

是的。從太陽能開始。正如我們所指出的，太陽能在第四季度表現穩健，無論是在 OE 方面還是在服務方面。我們確實預計他們的服務銷售未來將保持強勁。這已被證明過很多次了。所以我們確實希望情況會是這樣。

We had mentioned a number of times over the last year that there's a bit of a pent-up demand for oil and gas parts for rebuilds that resulted in increased sales in 2017 and 2018. So with the pressure on North American oil and gas, that business will remain challenged through 2020.

我們去年曾多次提到，市場對石油和天然氣零件重建的需求有一定的壓抑，這導致 2017 年和 2018 年的銷售量增加。因此，由於北美石油和天然氣面臨的壓力，該業務在2020年仍將面臨挑戰。

And the next question is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。

I'm wondering if you could just expand on your decremental margin assumptions. It looks like you're embedding 35% decrementals, give or take, in the '20 outlook. And when we look at your decrementals in the last sales downturn, they were generally in the 20% range. So I'm just wondering if you could just bridge that. Is that to give yourselves room to execute in a challenging environment? Can you just share the pieces just to bridge us between the historical decremental margin performance versus the target for '20?

我想知道您是否可以擴展您的遞減保證金假設。看起來你在 20 年的展望中嵌入了大約 35% 的減幅。當我們查看上次銷售低迷時期的減幅時，它們通常在 20% 的範圍內。所以我只是想知道你是否可以解決這個問題。這是為了給你們自己在充滿挑戰的環境中表現的空間嗎？您能否分享一些細節，讓我們了解歷史遞減利潤表現與 20 年的目標之間的差異？

Yes. Great question, Jerry. It's Andrew. Thank you very much for it. The -- this is exactly why we don't talk about incrementals and decrementals anymore. What we have done obviously through the last downturn, the company took out a significant amount of structural cost. And as we've gone through the last couple of years, where we've seen an up-cycle, we have not put that cost back in the business. What that meant, obviously, as margins improve, absolute margins improve over time, which is why we gave the Investor Day targets of improving margins by 3% to 6% against historical performance.

是的。很好的問題，傑瑞。是安德魯。非常感謝。這正是我們不再談論增量和減量的原因。顯然，我們在上次經濟衰退期間所做的就是讓公司消除了大量結構性成本。在過去的幾年裡，我們看到了一個上升週期，我們並沒有將這筆成本重新投入到業務中。顯然，這意味著隨著利潤率的提高，絕對利潤率也會隨著時間的推移而提高，這就是為什麼我們在投資者日設定的目標是將利潤率相對於歷史績效提高 3% 至 6%。

On the way down, obviously, you are -- because we are not -- we don't -- haven't put a lot of structural cost back in, there's not a lot of structural cost to cut. So you will see obviously higher deleverage as you go down. Also, because we're expecting this relatively to be a pause rather than some fundamental change in the market, we are continuing to invest in both services and in R&D, particularly for new NPI, new product introductions. That is important for us because that drives long-term growth. So we maintain the flexibility.

顯然，在下降的過程中 - 因為我們沒有 - 我們沒有 - 沒有投入大量的結構性成本，所以沒有太多的結構性成本可以削減。因此，隨著去槓桿化程度的下降，你會看到去槓桿化程度明顯上升。此外，由於我們預期這相對而言只是一個暫停，而不是市場的一些根本性變化，我們將繼續對服務和研發進行投資，特別是對於新的 NPI、新產品的推出。這對我們很重要，因為這將推動長期成長。因此我們保持靈活性。

How we are managing it is we are managing against those margin targets. We look at the absolute margin to make sure we stay within that 3% to 6% range against the level of sales and revenues we're expecting next year. And we do believe the plan we've got does do that.

我們的管理方式是根據這些利潤目標來管理。我們會關注絕對利潤率，以確保明年的銷售額和收入保持在預期的 3% 到 6% 的範圍內。我們確實相信我們所製定的計劃能夠做到這一點。

And Andrew, can you just expand maybe a little bit on the variable cost structure part of that discussion? Because more variable cost structure would suggest lower incremental and decremental margins. So I appreciate the comment on we have less restructuring opportunities now. But maybe you can expand on that point because that would sound like it would reduce the cyclicality in operating leverage?

安德魯，您能否稍微詳細闡述此次討論中關於變動成本結構的部分？因為更多的變動成本結構意味著更低的增量和減量利潤。因此，我很欣賞關於我們現在重組機會較少的評論。但也許您可以就這一點進行擴展，因為這聽起來會降低經營槓桿的周期性？

Yes. So obviously, volume is going to have a major impact next year as we go through. Obviously, that is the biggest single factor. And obviously, operating leverage is a factor in the margin.

是的。因此顯然，隨著我們不斷推進，明年的銷售將產生重大影響。顯然，這是最重要的單一因素。顯然，營業槓桿是影響利潤率的因素。

With regards to the other parts, so -- I mean, obviously, we're expecting pricing to be about flat next year. We are expecting some favorability in material costs, as I mentioned, particularly around steel and also because of some of our programs we put in place. How much of that feeds through into margins next year will depend about how quickly we get those programs through out of inventory and actually into sales.

至於其他部分，我的意思是，顯然我們預計明年的價格將保持穩定。正如我所提到的那樣，我們預計材料成本會有一些優惠，特別是鋼材價格，這也得益於我們實施的一些計劃。其中有多少會轉化為明年的利潤，將取決於我們如何快速將這些項目從庫存中消化並轉化為實際銷售。

We're also expecting lower freight next year. Freight costs have been high for the last couple of years, and partly because of obviously trying to meet end-user demand. But now with lead times being in a better place, we don't expect as much premium freight to occur.

我們預計明年的運費也會下降。過去幾年，運費一直很高，部分原因顯然是為了滿足最終用戶的需求。但現在交貨時間已改善，我們預計溢價運費不會那麼多。

And maybe just to expand on that answer just a bit. One of the things that Andrew mentioned earlier is we're really paying a lot of attention to end-user demand. And our dealers are independent businesses, but we're working with them to ensure that we don't have too much dealer inventory. And in the past, I'd argue that some of our cyclicality has been exacerbated by movements in dealer inventory. So by shortening our lead times, having dealer inventory that is appropriate for market demand, we believe that we will have a dampening effect on our cyclicality, which is part of what we're trying to accomplish.

也許只是稍微擴展一下這個答案。安德魯之前提到的一件事是，我們確實非常關注最終用戶的需求。我們的經銷商是獨立企業，但我們正在與他們合作，以確保我們的經銷商庫存不會過多。過去，我認為我們的一些週期性現象因經銷商庫存的變動而加劇。因此，透過縮短交貨時間，擁有適合市場需求的經銷商庫存，我們相信我們將對我們的週期性產生抑製作用，這也是我們試圖實現的目標的一部分。

And the next question is coming from Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Seth Weber。

I wanted to ask about the China construction market. I know you mentioned your expectations for the market to be kind of flat to down. Cat has been picking up share there recently over the last few months. I'm just -- can you speak to your expectations for Cat, particularly what's been driving the market share gains? Have you sort of changed tack with some of your marketing programs? Is there a new product that's kind of gaining good acceptance? And can you just talk broadly about your expectations relative to the market?

我想問一下中國建築市場的情況。我知道您曾提到市場持平甚至下跌的預期。近幾個月來，Cat 的市佔率不斷上升。我只是—您能談談您對 Cat 的期望嗎，特別是推動市場佔有率成長的因素是什麼？您是否改變了一些行銷計劃的策略？是否有一種新產品正在獲得良好的認可？您能否大致談談您對市場的預期？

Yes, what we indicated, I believe, is that we expect our sales to be flat to slightly down in 2020. We talked earlier about the fact that we're continually introducing new products as part of our expanded offering strategies, GC products. And certainly, a big part of that targeted customer audience is in China. We continue to build out our dealer network, continue to build out our footprint there, along with connected assets and all the other things we're doing. We believe that we're well positioned to compete in China moving forward.

是的，我相信，我們所表明的是，我們預計 2020 年的銷售額將持平或略有下降。我們之前談過，作為我們擴大產品供應策略的一部分，我們會不斷推出新產品，即 GC 產品。當然，其中很大一部分目標客戶群在中國。我們將繼續建立我們的經銷商網絡，繼續在那裡擴大我們的足跡，以及連接資產和我們正在做的所有其他事情。我們相信，我們已做好準備，在未來的中國市場中競爭。

Okay. Sorry. So Cat is flat to down. Is that better than what you're seeing for the market then? I thought that was a market commentary.

好的。對不起。因此 Cat 處於持平或下降狀態。這是否比您看到的市場狀況更好？我以為那隻是市場評論。

I believe it's roughly similar.

我認為大致上類似。

And the next question is coming from David Raso of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

My question's about EPS guidance, but can I go about it related to the dealer inventory swings? So the inventory reduction this year, you're targeting midpoint, $1.25 billion. But the headwind for you is actually greater on a year-over-year basis, right, because the inventory went up $700 million last year. So we're looking at a $1.95 billion drag year-over-year. But the way you spoke to the inventory sequentially, it appeared, and correct me if I'm wrong, almost all of that $1.95 billion, a very large majority of it, that year-over-year drag is really concentrated in the first half of the year. Is that correct?

我的問題是關於每股盈餘指引，但我能否就經銷商庫存波動進行討論？因此，今年的庫存減少目標中位數為 12.5 億美元。但與去年同期相比，你面臨的阻力實際上更大，因為去年庫存增加了 7 億美元。因此，我們預計年減幅度將達到 19.5 億美元。但是，從您連續談到庫存的方式來看，如果我錯了，請糾正我，幾乎所有的 19.5 億美元，其中絕大多數，同比拖累確實集中在今年上半年。那正確嗎？

David, it's Andrew. Yes, that is correct.

大衛，我是安德魯。是的，正確。

So when I think about the EPS cadence, right, pricing a bit of a struggle to start the year, the big inventory swing for the full year is really focused on the first half. That sort of sets up for the inset. I'm just trying to figure out then -- I mean, normally, the first quarter, the last, whatever, 20 years, the median, it's up a little bit from the fourth quarter. Your fourth quarter was on the high side. So is it fair to say it's -- that's not the case this year? We start low in the first half. The first quarter's below 4Q and then it climbs from there? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much is the main and...

因此，當我考慮每股盈餘節奏時，沒錯，年初的定價有點困難，全年的庫存大幅波動實際上集中在上半年。這類設定適用於插圖。我只是想弄清楚——我的意思是，通常情況下，過去 20 年的第一季度，中位數比第四季度略有上升。你們第四節的表現偏高。那麼，是否可以說今年的情況並非如此？我們上半場開局不利。第一季低於第四季度，然後從那裡開始上升？我只是想知道主要內容是多少...

Yes. So part of the reason why I tried to talk a little bit about the phasing for next year is, yes, do not expect the historic trends to prevail. Yes, as you know, normally, first quarter is a relatively strong quarter, always a strong quarter from a margin perspective as we build inventory heading into selling season. And then, obviously, the second half is slightly weaker than the first half. But that is the normal pattern, both from the sales and revenue and also from a profitability perspective.

是的。因此，我之所以嘗試談論明年的分階段實施，部分原因是，是的，不要指望歷史趨勢會佔上風。是的，如您所知，通常情況下，第一季是一個相對強勁的季度，從利潤率的角度來看，這始終是一個強勁的季度，因為我們在銷售季節建立庫存。然後，顯然，下半場比上半場稍微弱一些。但無論從銷售、收入或獲利能力的角度來看，這都是正常模式。

Your assumptions you're making are fairly accurate based on what we're seeing. We do expect deal inventory to have an impact on the first half. As I said, CI will see some build in Q1, but that should be broadly flat by Q2. RI will see a steady decline through the first half of the year versus a build last year. So that is the likely outcome as we move. And so yes, you can't just -- you won't be able -- just to be able to use the seasonal trends as a plug-in new model, I'm afraid.

根據我們所看到的情況，您所做的假設是相當準確的。我們確實預期交易庫存會對上半年產生影響。正如我所說，CI 將在第一季有所增長，但到第二季度應該會基本持平。與去年同期相比，羅德島州的產量將在今年上半年持續下降。因此，這就是我們行動過程中可能出現的結果。所以是的，恐怕你不能只是——你不能——僅僅能夠將季節性趨勢用作插入式新模型。

And just to be clear, Jim, last year, obviously, the inventory reduction was a little disappointing. The management's commitment to take care of this inventory in the first half of the year, I just want to be clear. I know they're independent dealers, but are we looking to take out the year-over-year swing, right? Completely avoid the normal seasonal build, you're not looking to build inventory at all in the first half of the year, and that's that big year-over-year drag. I'm just making sure from the prior, let's say, disappointments on the inventory the last couple of quarters, is there a firm commitment to address this in the first half and not let this linger into the back half?

需要明確的是，吉姆，去年庫存減少顯然有點令人失望。我只是想明確一下管理層承諾在上半年處理好這些庫存。我知道他們是獨立經銷商，但我們是否希望消除同比波動，對嗎？完全避免正常的季節性建設，你根本不想在上半年建立庫存，這就是同比巨大的拖累。我只是想確認一下，從之前幾季庫存情況來看，是否有堅定的承諾在上半年解決這個問題，而不是讓這​​個問題延續到下半年？

Yes. David, I mean, obviously, always, as we work with our dealers, but they are managing their businesses themselves. So we are -- we can't manage their inventory for them. However, based on our expectations on order patterns we're seeing from dealers, we do expect that they will be working hard to reduce their inventory in the first half of the year. We can't make it a 100% commitment. But obviously, we do expect the vast majority of that to happen in the first half.

是的。大衛，我的意思是，顯然，我們總是與我們的經銷商合作，但他們自己管理他們的業務。所以我們——我們無法為他們管理庫存。然而，根據我們對經銷商的訂單模式的預期，我們確實預計他們將在今年上半年努力減少庫存。我們無法做出 100% 的承諾。但顯然，我們確實預期絕大多數會在上半年發生。

And one of the reasons that our fourth quarter inventory didn't decline as much as we anticipated because end-user sales were lower than our expectations. So obviously, end-user sales has an impact on inventory in the quarter.

我們第四季庫存沒有像我們預期的那樣下降的原因之一是終端用戶銷售額低於我們的預期。因此顯然，終端用戶銷售會對本季的庫存產生影響。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is coming from Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

Let's see if this works. Just a quick clarification on North American construction. You have residential and nonresidential construction to decline. Is that industry dollars spent on construction? Or is that construction equipment for the industry? And if I can, my question is really, I mean, the reduction in lead time is a fantastic thing for Cat, and reduction in volatility would be a great thing for Cat. Any color around just the work you've done to achieve that? And if dealers are starting to recognize it and wanting to hold structurally lower inventory.

讓我們看看這是否有效。只是想快速澄清一下北美建築。住宅和非住宅建築均出現下滑。這些是工業資金花在建設上嗎？還是那是工業用的建築設備？如果可以的話，我的問題是，縮短交貨時間對 Cat 來說是一件好事，降低波動性對 Cat 來說也是一件好事。為了實現這個目標，您付出了怎樣的努力？如果經銷商開始認識到這一點，並希望從結構上降低庫存。

So with regards to residential and nonresidential, there's construction equipment relating to that is what we're expecting to see the decline in.

因此，就住宅和非住宅而言，我們預計與之相關的建築設備數量將會下降。

And then as regards the inventory, let me hand it back to Jim.

關於庫存，讓我把它交還給吉姆。

Yes. In terms of lead times, we've been working on this lean journey for a long time. And obviously, if we can find ways to reduce our lead times, it helps us both in the up-cycle to respond more quickly to increases and changes in demand and also allows us to cut back more quickly so we don't have an overhang, which helps to dampen the impact of the cycles.

是的。在交貨時間方面，我們已經為精益之路努力了很長時間。顯然，如果我們能找到減少交貨時間的方法，它既可以幫助我們在上升週期中更快地應對需求的增長和變化，也可以讓我們更快地削減成本，這樣我們就不會出現過剩，這有助於減輕週期的影響。

And that, again, we've got our total team focused on reducing cycle times, all part of that lean journey and really trying to synchronize across the value chain. I think we're doing a better job of that than we have in the past. But it's a never-ending journey.

再次強調，我們整個團隊都致力於縮短週期時間，這是精實之旅的一部分，我們真正試圖實現整個價值鏈的同步。我認為我們在這方面做得比過去更好。但這是一段永無止境的旅程。

And the next question is coming from Ashish Gupta from Stephens.

下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的阿希什古普塔 (Ashish Gupta)。

I was wondering if you could expand on your GC comments related to China. Maybe you can give us a sense of what went right or where you're looking for incremental improvement in 2020. I guess I'm just referring to sort of the market share losses through most of the year, although it did improve in the end. Just kind of trying to think about, how much of a contributor that could be in 2020 and beyond? Where the successes were? And where you could see some incremental improvement?

我想知道您是否可以詳細闡述有關中國 GC 的評論。也許您可以讓我們了解哪些方面進展順利，或者您希望在 2020 年在哪些方面取得逐步改進。我猜我指的是今年大部分時間的市場份額都在損失，儘管最後情況確實有所改善。只要想一想，到 2020 年及以後，這能做出多大的貢獻？成功在哪裡？您在哪裡可以看到一些漸進的改進？

Yes. Whether it's China or any other part of the world, the competitive landscape is continually changing. As we introduce new products, our competitors introduce new products, so that's nothing new. And so we -- again, you look at anywhere in the world over time, we see changes in the competitive situation. I mean we have demonstrated our ability to successfully compete in China. We've localized. We have a local leadership team. We have dozens of factories. We have localized our supply chain, and we continue to build out our dealer network and increase services and connectivity and introduce new products.

是的。無論是中國還是世界其他地方，競爭格局都在不斷變化。當我們推出新產品時，我們的競爭對手也會推出新產品，所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。因此，我們再一次觀察世界任何地方，隨著時間的推移，我們都會看到競爭情勢的變化。我的意思是我們已經證明了我們在中國成功競爭的能力。我們已經在地化了。我們有一個當地領導團隊。我們有幾十家工廠。我們已經實現了供應鏈本地化，並將繼續建立經銷商網路、增加服務和連接性以及推出新產品。

So again, it's -- competitive situation in China or anywhere in the world that's fluid. But we're very committed to be successful in that market, and I believe it demonstrated we can be successful competitively.

所以，不管是中國還是世界任何地方的競爭情勢都是瞬息萬變的。但我們非常致力於在該市場取得成功，我相信這證明了我們可以在競爭中取得成功。

And the next question is coming from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸證券的 Jamie Cook。

If you could -- a clarification, if you could just elaborate. You talked about the normal restructuring of $200 million. And then the -- I'm sorry, normal restructuring, which I assume is $200 million, and then the strategic stuff you're reviewing, another $200 million. I'm just trying to understand what's in the EPS guide that you're not adjusting out. And then I guess my question is, are there -- you talked about reviewing products. You talked about some cost cutting, realizing it's not what we had and there's not the opportunity in prior cycles. But as we get to the back half of the year, I'm just trying to understand, are there any savings associated with these measures? Or does that play more into 2021?

如果您可以—澄清一下，詳細說明一下。您談到了 2 億美元的正常重組。然後——抱歉，正常重組，我估計是 2 億美元，然後是您正在審查的戰略內容，另外 2 億美元。我只是想知道您沒有調整 EPS 指南中的內容。然後我想我的問題是，你談到了產品評論。您談到了一些成本削減，我們意識到這不是我們所擁有的，而且在之前的周期中也沒有機會。但當我們進入下半年時，我只是想知道，這些措施是否能帶來任何節省？或者這會在 2021 年發揮更大的作用？

Yes. Okay, Jamie. So we have said that we would -- this year, we expected -- beginning of the year, we said for 2019 that we expect the restructuring costs now to normalize between $100 million and $200 million a year. We were slightly above that. You will have heard me say, we were at $236 million for 2019. We expect a normal level in 2020. So between the $100 million to $200 million is the sort of normal level we would have.

是的。好的，傑米。因此，我們說過，我們預計，今年年初，我們表示，對於 2019 年，我們預計重組成本現在將正常化在每年 1 億美元至 2 億美元之間。我們稍微高於這個數字。你們可能已經聽我說過，2019 年我們的收入達到了 2.36 億美元。我們預計 2020 年將達到正常水準。因此，1 億到 2 億美元之間是我們的正常水準。

The $200 million, actually, yes, you're correct. It does relate to some products, which aren't delivering OPACC. They will -- some action we've got to go through. We're doing the evaluation of the actions we can do. And at the moment, our guidance does not take into account that there would be any savings associated with these measures in 2020. We think most -- more likely that will be in 2021 anyway.

實際上是 2 億美元，是的，你是對的。它確實與一些未提供 OPACC 的產品有關。他們會的——我們必須採取一些行動。我們正在評估我們可以採取的行動。目前，我們的指導意見並未考慮到 2020 年這些措施所帶來的任何節省。我們認為最有可能的是將在 2021 年實現。

And is there any way to think about a savings associated with that or just too early? And to confirm, repurchase is in your EPS guide, right?

有沒有辦法考慮與此相關的節省，還是還為時過早？並且確認回購在您的 EPS 指南中，對嗎？

Yes. Yes, repurchase is in the EPS guide. And yes, we will keep you updated on this. Because I think as the charges come through, we'll pick it up. And then we'll talk to you about what we're expecting from a benefit perspective.

是的。是的，回購在 EPS 指南中。是的，我們會及時向您通報最新情況。因為我認為，隨著指控的提出，我們將會採取行動。然後，我們會從福利角度跟您討論我們的期望。

And we're also -- just give me -- to add in there, we're also continuing looking at ways to reduce our structural costs, particularly in the areas of back office and procurement and all the rest. And we do expect again, over time, to have improved performance as a result of that. Again, relatively limited impact in 2020, but we're really trying to take the right steps in 2020 to set ourselves up for the future with a lower structural cost.

而且我們還在——只是給我——補充一點，我們還在繼續尋找降低結構性成本的方法，特別是在後台和採購等領域。而我們確實再次期望，隨著時間的推移，我們的績效會因此而提高。同樣，2020 年的影響相對有限，但我們確實在努力在 2020 年採取正確的措施，以較低的結構性成本為未來做好準備。

And your final question is coming from Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies & Company.

您的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies & Company 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Andrew, thank you for all the comments relative to sort of the EPS cadence. But I'm wondering, Jim, if I can ask how you're thinking about the markets. You talked about this earlier. I think you sort of characterized it as a pause. So the down 4% to 9% in end-user demand, is that sort of significantly lower in the first half and then maybe kind of closer to breakeven in the second half? Or just do you think this kind of runs its course, and the fourth quarter run rate could actually be kind of back to growth again? Or are you just sort of predicting kind of steady, continuous weakness in end-user demand?

安德魯，感謝您對 EPS 節奏提出的所有評論。但我想知道，吉姆，我是否可以問一下你對市場的看法。您之前談過這個。我覺得你把它描述為一種停頓。那麼，終端用戶需求下降 4% 至 9%，是否是上半年明顯下降，而下半年可能更接近盈虧平衡？或者您認為這種情況會自然發生，第四季度的運行率實際上可能再次恢復成長？還是您只是預測終端用戶需求將會持續、穩定疲軟？

Yes. I think you really have to look at it by segment. So in Resource Industries, in mining, in particular, we believe that the second half will be stronger than the first half. Again, we are -- we feel there's a slow, gradual recovery occurring in mining. Our customers are cautious. But just based on the quoting activity and the amount that's going on, we do anticipate that there'll be a stronger last half of the year than first half.

是的。我認為你確實必須分段來看。因此，在資源產業，尤其是採礦業，我們相信下半年的表現將比上半年強勁。再說一次，我們感覺到採礦業正在緩慢、逐步地復甦。我們的客戶非常謹慎。但僅基於報價活動和正在進行的數量，我們確實預計下半年的表現將比上半年更加強勁。

In construction, don't anticipate any dramatic changes first half to second half. In oil and gas onshore, we expect that to be -- remain depressed throughout the year. Solar and rail typically have strong fourth quarters. That's -- it's that way almost every year, and we -- no reason to think that wouldn't happen again.

在建築業，不要預期上半年到下半年會發生任何劇烈的變化。我們預計，陸上石油和天然氣產量將全年保持低迷。太陽能和鐵路行業通常在第四季度表現強勁。幾乎每年都是這樣，我們沒有理由認為這種情況不會再發生。

Okay. With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

好的。現在，請容許我把話題轉回給吉姆，請他作最後發言。

All right. Well, thank you all for joining the call and appreciate your questions. Cat faced several challenges in 2019, and I'm very proud of our team of employees, how they met those challenges with determination. They've allowed us to meet our operating margin targets that we set at our Investor Day and do the other things we said we would do. And we continue to advance our strategy for profitable growth. We are investing significantly in services, expanded offerings and working on that operational excellence, record safety year, shortening lead times, working on the cost structure. And certainly, 2020 will bring its own set of challenges and opportunities, but we remain focused on delivering additional value to our customers and our shareholders. And we'll continue to execute our strategy for profitable growth. Thanks for your time.

好的。好吧，感謝大家參加電話會議，也感謝大家的提問。2019 年，Cat 面臨多重挑戰，我為我們的員工團隊感到非常自豪，他們以堅定的決心應對這些挑戰。他們幫助我們實現了在投資者日制定的營業利潤率目標，並完成了我們承諾過的其他事情。我們將繼續推進我們的獲利成長策略。我們正在對服務進行大量投資，擴大產品範圍，致力於實現卓越運營，創下安全年記錄，縮短交貨時間，優化成本結構。當然，2020年也會帶來一系列挑戰和機遇，但我們仍然專注於為客戶和股東提供額外的價值。我們將繼續執行我們的獲利成長策略。感謝您的時間。

Thanks, Jim. Thanks, everybody, who joined us for our call today. If you missed any portion of the call, you can catch it by replay online later this morning. We will post a transcript on the Investor Relations site within 1 business day. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Rob is at R-E-N-G-E-L_rob@cat.com (sic) [rengel_rob@cat.com]. I'm at driscoll_jennifer@cat.com. And the general phone number and Investor Relations is +1 (309) 675-4549.

謝謝，吉姆。感謝今天參加我們電話會議的各位。如果您錯過了通話的任何部分，您可以在今天上午晚些時候透過線上重播收聽。我們將於 1 個工作天內於投資者關係網站上發布一份記錄。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 Rob 或我。Rob 的電子郵件地址為 R-E-N-G-E-L_rob@cat.com (原文如此) [rengel_rob@cat.com]。我的電子郵件地址是 driscoll_jennifer@cat.com。一般電話號碼和投資者關係是+1 (309) 675-4549。

And now let me ask Paul to conclude our call.

現在我請保羅來結束我們的通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。