開利公司 (CARR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我想介紹今天會議的主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Michael Rednor。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有董事長兼執行長 David Gitlin；以及財務長 Patrick Goris。

Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant nonrecurring items. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

除非另有說明，該公司將討論持續經營的業績，不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。這些和其他非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表可在網路廣播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。Carrier 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括我們的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表季度報告）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike, and welcome aboard. Let me start by saying thank you to our team for delivering great results in 2024 while completing such a significant portfolio transformation. I am more excited about 2025 than I have ever been entering a new year. I feel as if all of the work done by so many Carrier over so many years has positioned us for this moment to create outsized value for our customers, people and shareholders.

謝謝，麥克，歡迎加入。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊在 2024 年完成如此重大的投資組合轉型的同時取得了出色的成績。我對 2025 年的興奮程度，超過了我進入新年時的任何一年。我感覺，這麼多年眾多開利公司所做的所有工作，都為我們此刻能夠為客戶、員工和股東創造超額價值做好了準備。

As you can see on slide 2, 2024 was a strong and transformational year for us. We achieved 3% organic growth by delivering double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket, both for the fourth consecutive year to help offset unexpected weakness in residential light commercial HVAC in Europe and China.

正如您在幻燈片 2 上看到的，2024 年對我們來說是強勁而變革的一年。我們在全球商用暖通空調和售後市場連續第四年實現兩位數成長，實現了 3% 的有機成長，以幫助抵消歐洲和中國住宅輕型商用暖通空調市場的意外疲軟。

Total company orders were up low teens with HVAC Americas supplied, up about 40%. Our global commercial HVAC backlog is up mid-teens versus last year positioning us for another year of double-digit growth in 2025 in that business. For overall Carrier, organic growth and strong productivity contributed to close to 100% core earnings conversion, a 180 basis points of margin expansion and 16% adjusted EPS growth.

公司訂單總量上漲了 10% 左右，其中 HVAC Americas 供應量上漲了約 40%。與去年相比，我們的全球商用暖通空調積壓訂單成長了 15% 左右，這為我們在 2025 年該業務再次實現兩位數成長奠定了基礎。對於整個 Carrier 而言，有機成長和強勁的生產力促成了接近 100% 的核心收益轉換、180 個基點的利潤率擴大和 16% 的調整後每股收益成長。

We delivered these strong results while we successfully completed our portfolio transformation. We integrated with Viessmann Climate Solutions and executed on our divestitures, yielding over $10 billion in gross proceeds. And as committed, we paid down debt and returned to roughly 2x net leverage. We also returned over $2.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我們在成功完成投資組合轉型的同時，也取得了這些強勁的表現。我們與 Viessmann Climate Solutions 整合並執行了資產剝離，獲得了超過 100 億美元的總收益。並且按照承諾，我們還清了債務，並將淨槓桿率恢復到大約 2 倍。我們也透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 26 億美元。

Turning to slide 3. I think of our year since spin in three phases. During our first phase, we built the foundation for a new Carrier. We promoted and added key talent, we launched and have lived a new culture embedded in the Carrier way that has given us tremendous energy and a focus on growth and innovation.

翻到幻燈片 3。我認為我們自旋轉以來的一年可以分為三個階段。在第一階段，我們為新的 Carrier 奠定了基礎。我們提拔並增加了關鍵人才，我們推出並實踐了一種根植於開利之道的新文化，這種文化給了我們巨大的能量並讓我們專注於成長和創新。

We launched Carrier excellence to drive operational execution, excellence and productivity. We invested in our product portfolio and developed and implemented our aftermarket playbook to position us for sustained organic growth. We sold Chubb, added Toshiba, simplified the backed office and paid down debt. 2023 and 2024 were defined by our mantra of performing while transforming.

我們推出了“承運人卓越計劃”，以推動營運執行、卓越性和生產力。我們對我們的產品組合進行了投資，並制定和實施了我們的售後市場策略，以實現持續的有機成長。我們出售了 Chubb，收購了東芝，簡化了後台辦公室並償還了債務。 2023年和2024年，我們的口號是「在轉型的同時表現」。

We sharpened our vision and successfully transformed our portfolio. We now have greater bandwidth to create even more value for our customers and thus our shareholders. Focus, simplification, differentiation, customers, win, grow. The new phase accelerating growth has begun and there is tremendous energy within Carrier.

我們銳化了視野並成功轉變了我們的投資組合。我們現在擁有更大的頻寬，可以為我們的客戶和股東創造更多價值。專注、簡化、差異化、客戶、勝利、成長。新的加速成長階段已經開始，開利內部充滿了巨大的活力。

As we navigated this transition, we have been purposefully increasing our addressable market and value proposition for our customers, as you can see on slide 4. In 2020, we began to not only increase our investments in our product portfolio, we significantly increased our focus on digitally enabled life cycle solutions.

正如您在投影片 4 中所看到的，在我們經歷這一轉變的過程中，我們一直在有目的地擴大我們的潛在市場和麵向客戶的價值主張。2020 年，我們不僅開始增加對產品組合的投資，還顯著增加了對數位化生命週期解決方案的關注。

Aftermarket has increased our addressable market, contributed to margin expansion all while creating greater customer stickiness and increasing recurring revenues. Now, in addition to driving differentiated products in aftermarket, we are introducing fully integrated systems, which further increased customer value across our three targeted ecosystems, homes, buildings and the cold chain.

售後市場擴大了我們的目標市場，促進了利潤率的提高，同時創造了更大的客戶黏性並增加了經常性收入。現在，除了在售後市場推動差異化產品外，我們還推出了完全整合的系統，這進一步提高了我們三個目標生態系統（家庭、建築和冷鏈）的客戶價值。

For Integrated Systems and Homes, we are significantly expanding and enhancing our European home energy management system offerings. And through a newly created business within Carrier called Carrier Energy, we are bringing similar offerings to the United States. For the US, we are actively working with utilities to provide an end-to-end integrated battery heat pump solution with automated controls to run the system using stored energy during peak hours, while recharging the system during the trough of energy grid usage. The interest from utilities and other customers has been very encouraging to address grid constraints and resiliency.

對於整合系統和住宅，我們正在大力擴展和增強我們的歐洲家庭能源管理系統產品。透過開利公司內部新成立的名為開利能源（Carrier Energy）的業務，我們將向美國提供類似的產品。對於美國，我們正在積極與公用事業公司合作，提供端到端整合電池熱泵解決方案，該解決方案具有自動控制功能，可在高峰時段使用儲存的能量運行系統，同時在電網使用低谷期間為系統充電。公用事業公司和其他客戶的興趣對於解決電網限制和彈性非常令人鼓舞。

Within Building Systems, one offering is our integrated cooling solution for data centers that we announced last week under the brand of Quantum Leap. By combining traditional cooling, liquid cooling and our building and server management systems, we provide differentiated, more efficient solutions for our customers in this important and growing vertical.

在建築系統領域，我們的一項產品是我們上週以 Quantum Leap 品牌發布的資料中心整合冷卻解決方案。透過結合傳統冷卻、液體冷卻以及我們的建築和伺服器管理系統，我們為這個重要且不斷增長的垂直領域的客戶提供差異化、更有效率的解決方案。

For cold chain solutions, we are transitioning from solely selling reefers to providing end-to-end systems enabled by our Lynx Digital platform and Sensitech technologies. Selling complete integrated systems provides us with a new and important opportunity for differentiation, customer value and increased revenue streams.

對於冷鏈解決方案，我們正在從單純銷售冷藏貨櫃轉型為提供由我們的 Lynx Digital 平台和 Sensitech 技術支援的端到端系統。銷售完整的整合系統為我們提供了一個新的、重要的機會，可以實現差異化、客戶價值和增加收入來源。

Slide 5 lays out our strategic focus areas and priorities for 2025. In addition to our growth initiatives that we just discussed, we also remain laser-focused on margin expansion through carrier excellence while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. We deeply embed our priorities throughout our organization through a structured goal alignment process.

投影片 5 列出了我們 2025 年的策略重點領域和優先事項。除了我們剛剛討論過的成長計劃之外，我們還將繼續專注於透過卓越的營運商來擴大利潤，同時保持嚴格的資本配置。我們透過結構化的目標協調流程，將我們的優先事項深深嵌入整個組織。

Slide 6 shows how these priorities are reflected in our 2025 guidance. Given our strategic positioning, we expect organic growth of mid-single digits with our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in aftermarket and global commercial HVAC. We will continue to drive productivity and expect 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.

投影片 6 展示了這些優先事項如何反映在我們的 2025 年指導方針中。鑑於我們的策略定位，我們預計有機成長率將達到中等個位數，售後市場和全球商用暖通空調市場連續第五年實現兩位數成長。我們將繼續提高生產力，預計利潤率將年增 100 個基點。

We expect adjusted EPS to be up 17% at the midpoint and about 100% free cash flow conversion. As we look ahead, we will continue to focus on execution within Viessmann Climate Solutions, which we discuss on slide 7.

我們預計調整後的每股盈餘中位數將上漲 17%，自由現金流轉換率將達到 100% 左右。展望未來，我們將繼續關注 Viessmann Climate Solutions 的執行情況，我們在第 7 張幻燈片中對此進行了討論。

Obviously, 2024 was well off what we expected coming into the year. Nevertheless, I am proud that the team controlled the controlables and drove share gains, significant cost synergies and key new product introductions. The team also took the tough but necessary actions to significantly reduce both temporary and structural overhead costs, positioning us for strong margin expansion as growth returns.

顯然，2024 年的表現遠低於我們的預期。儘管如此，我很自豪團隊控制了可控因素並推動了份額成長、顯著的成本協同效應和關鍵的新產品推出。該團隊還採取了艱難但必要的措施，大幅削減了臨時性和結構性間接成本，使我們在經濟恢復成長時實現利潤率的強勁增長。

Looking at our growth algorithm for 2025. Given political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we assume that market volume will be flat to down mid-single digits. In addition, we expect a 5 point full year revenue headwind associated with last year's Q1 backlog reduction, which normalized at the beginning of Q2 of last year.

看看我們2025年的成長演算法。鑑於歐洲政治和經濟的不確定性，我們預期市場規模將持平或下降中位數個位數。此外，我們預計，由於去年第一季積壓訂單減少，全年收入將面臨 5 個百分點的逆風，而去年第二季初這種逆風已趨於正常。

On the positive side, we expect continued positive mix with double-digit growth in heat pumps offsetting a modest decline in boilers. Similar to last year, we expect VCS aftermarket to grow double digits, and we also expect a point or so of price. New products introduced last year, including the 19 and 40 kilowatt heat pumps will see a full year of sales in 2025.

從積極的一面來看，我們預計熱泵銷量將繼續保持兩位數的成長，抵消鍋爐銷量的輕微下滑。與去年類似，我們預計 VCS 售後市場將成長兩位數，我們也預期價格將上漲一個點左右。去年推出的新產品，包括 19 和 40 千瓦的熱泵，將在 2025 年全年銷售。

We are introducing a full lineup of cascadable heat pumps up to 560 kilowatts with natural refrigerants that we will be selling through the Viessmann channel. As we think about revenue synergies, we are excited for the ISH trade show in Frankfurt in March, where we will showcase our new multi-brand products such as our newly launched Carrier branded air conditioning units that we will also be selling through the Viessmann channel.

我們推出了全系列採用天然冷媒、功率高達 560 千瓦的級聯熱泵，並將透過 Viessmann 通路銷售。當我們考慮收​​入協同效應時，我們對 3 月在法蘭克福舉行的 ISH 貿易展感到非常興奮，我們將在那裡展示我們的新多品牌產品，例如我們新推出的 Carrier 品牌空調機組，我們也將透過 Viessmann 管道銷售。

We gained share in key European geographies last year and expect that to continue in 2025, and the team has been putting all the pieces together to significantly increase our complete home energy management system sales this year and beyond. We also remain confident in margin expansion and cost synergies. So all in, we expect a strong year across Carrier with accelerated organic growth, margin expansion, EPS growth and strong free cash flow.

去年，我們在歐洲主要地區的市場份額有所增長，預計這種趨勢將在 2025 年繼續保持。我們對利潤率擴大和成本綜效也充滿信心。整體而言，我們預計開利公司今年​​將迎來強勁成長，有機成長加速，利潤率擴大，每股盈餘成長，自由現金流強勁。

With that, let me turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

現在，讓我把話題交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. In short, Q4 earnings were ahead of our expectations and the guide we provided in October. Reported sales were $5.1 billion, with 6% organic sales growth, including about 2 points of price and 4 points of volume. We had a favorable 13% net impact from acquisitions and divestitures.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早安。請翻到第 8 張投影片。簡而言之，第四季度的收益超出了我們的預期和十月提供的指導。報告的銷售額為 51 億美元，有機銷售額增長 6%，其中價格增長約 2 個點，銷量增長 4 個點。收購和資產剝離為我們帶來了 13% 的淨利潤。

Organic sales were in line with expectations, driven by continued strength in global commercial and the North America residential HVAC, partially offset by weakness across residential and light commercial HVAC in Europe and China.

有機銷售額符合預期，主要得益於全球商用和北美住宅暖通空調持續走強，但歐洲和中國住宅和輕型商用暖通空調的疲軟部分抵消了這一增長。

Q4 adjusted operating profit was up 65% compared to last year, driven by the contribution of Viessmann Climate Solutions, the benefit of organic growth and productivity. As a result, adjusted operating margin expanded by 370 basis points compared to last year. The absence of commercial refrigeration was about 0.5 point tailwind to margin.

第四季調整後營業利潤較去年同期成長 65%，這得益於 Viessmann Climate Solutions 的貢獻、有機成長和生產力帶來的好處。因此，調整後的營業利潤率較去年同期擴大了 370 個基點。缺乏商業冷凍設備對利潤率的影響約為 0.5 個百分點。

Adjusted EPS of $0.54 was up 50% year-over-year. Operational performance was in line with our guide, and we benefited from discrete tax items. Net interest expense was a bit light versus our guide, given the earlier close of the commercial and residential fire business. Free cash, and I'll now refer to both continuing and disc ops was an outflow of about $90 million in the quarter.

調整後每股收益為 0.54 美元，年增 50%。營運績效符合我們的預期，我們受益於單獨稅項。由於商業和住宅消防業務提前結束，淨利息支出相對於我們的預期來說略低。自由現金，我現在指的是持續營運和盤存運營，本季的流出量約為 9000 萬美元。

Full year free cash flow of $30 million was about $200 million better than we guided. Having closed residential and commercial fire in early December, we picked up the pace on share repurchases, and we ended 2024 with about $1.9 billion of share repurchases, about $1 billion more than our October guide.

全年自由現金流為 3,000 萬美元，比我們預期的高出約 2 億美元。在 12 月初關閉住宅和商業火災後，我們加快了股票回購的步伐，到 2024 年底，我們的股票回購總額約為 19 億美元，比我們 10 月的指導金額高出約 10 億美元。

Moving on to the segments, starting on slide 9. The HVAC segment had another strong quarter with organic sales growth of 11%. Organic sales in the Americas were up high teens. Within the Americas, Commercial was up mid-teens and light commercial was a little better than expected and down around 10%.

從第 9 張投影片開始，繼續進行各個片段。HVAC 部門又度過了一個強勁的季度，有機銷售額成長了 11%。美洲地區的有機產品銷售額成長了數十倍。在美洲，商業用地價格上漲了 10% 左右，而輕型商業用地價格略好於預期，下降了 10% 左右。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, light commercial was up about 20%, so certainly a tough comp. Residential was up 35%, mostly driven by strong volume compared to a very weak Q4 last year, which was about minus 20% as our channel was in destocking mode a year ago.

2023 年第四季度，輕型商用車銷量成長約 20%，因此無疑是一場艱難的競爭。住宅銷售額成長了 35%，主要得益於強勁的銷量，而去年第四季的銷量則非常疲軟（由於一年前我們的通路處於去庫存模式，銷量下降了約 20%）。

On the last earnings call, we mentioned that we expected no material pre-buy in Q4. The actual pre-buy was in line with expectations and movement was stronger than expected. Movements that is sales from our distributors to installers has continued to be strong in January this year. Organic sales in EMEA were flat, driven by double-digit growth in commercial, offset by a decline in residential and light commercial HVAC reflecting continued market weakness.

在上次財報電話會議上，我們提到，預計第四季不會有實質的預購。實際預購符合預期，走勢強於預期。今年 1 月，從我們的經銷商到安裝商的銷售動向持續強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機銷售額持平，主要得益於商用業務的兩位數增長，但住宅和輕型商用暖通空調業務的下滑抵消了這一影響，反映出市場持續疲軟。

Organic sales in Asia were slightly positive, driven by strength in Japan and South Asia, partially offset by declines in our residential and light commercial business in China. The HVAC segment adjusted operating margins were up 250 basis points, driven by the benefit of organic growth and strong productivity. As you can see at the bottom of the slide, 2024 was another great year for our HVAC business with continued growth and margin expansion.

受日本和南亞市場強勁成長的推動，亞洲地區的有機銷售額略有成長，但中國住宅和輕型商用業務的下滑部分抵消了這一成長。受有機成長和強勁生產率的推動，HVAC 部門調整後營業利潤率上漲了 250 個基點。正如您在幻燈片底部看到的，2024 年對於我們的 HVAC 業務來說又是偉大的一年，業務持續成長，利潤率不斷擴大。

Transitioning to Refrigeration on slide 10. Q4 was the first quarter without commercial refrigeration given its exit on October 1. Overall, results for this segment were as expected. Our global truck and trailer business was down around 10% and with North America down about 25% and Europe down low single digits, only partially offset by high single-digit growth in Asia.

幻燈片 10 上顯示過渡至製冷。自 10 月 1 日退出商業冷凍市場以來，第四季是第一個沒有商業冷凍市場的季度。整體而言，該部門的業績符合預期。我們的全球卡車和拖車業務下降了約 10％，其中北美下降了約 25％，歐洲下降了低個位數，但亞洲的高個位數增長僅部分抵消了這一增長。

Container was down low single digits. Our aftermarket and Sensitech businesses were both up mid-single digits. Operating margin expanded by 160 basis points year-over-year. For the full year, this segment was down 1% organically with container up roughly 25%, mostly offset by declines in North America truck and trailer. Margins expanded 20 basis points.

貨櫃數量下降了個位數。我們的售後市場和 Sensitech 業務均實現了中等個位數成長。營業利益率年增160個基點。就全年而言，該部門有機下滑 1%，其中貨櫃運輸成長約 25%，但大部分被北美卡車和拖車銷量的下滑所抵消。利潤率擴大了20個基點。

Turning to slide 11. Total company orders, total company organic orders were up low teens. Overall, HVAC orders were up about 5% with continued strong orders growth in the Americas at about 10%. EMEA and Asia organic orders were down mid-single digits. In Asia, weak orders in China residential light commercial HVAC were partially offset by China Commercial HVAC orders and strength in other countries.

翻到第 11 張投影片。公司訂單總量、公司有機訂單總量均出現了低幅度的成長。整體而言，HVAC 訂單成長約 5%，美洲訂單持續強勁成長，增幅約 10%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞洲的有機訂單下降了中等個位數。在亞洲，中國住宅輕型商用暖通空調訂單疲軟，但被中國商用暖通空調訂單和其他國家強勁表現部分抵消。

Globally, commercial HVAC orders were up about 10%. Refrigeration orders were up around 55% in the quarter, mostly as a result of very strong growth in North America truck trailer on an easy comp. Truck and trailer orders in Europe were up over 20% and Asia orders were up mid-single digits. Overall, we entered 2025 with robust longer cycle backlogs in commercial HVAC and orders momentum in key businesses.

全球範圍內，商用暖通空調訂單增加了約 10%。本季冷藏訂單成長約 55％，主要原因是北美卡車拖車銷量強勁成長。歐洲的卡車和拖車訂單增長了 20% 以上，亞洲的訂單增長了中等個位數。整體而言，進入 2025 年，我們商用暖通空調領域將擁有強勁的較長週期積壓訂單，關鍵業務的訂單動能也將保持強勁。

Moving on to slide 12 and shifting to 2025 organic sales guidance. We expect mid-single digit organic growth and reported sales of between $22.5 billion and $23 billion. This also includes a $750 million year-over-year headwind from the commercial refrigeration exit. We expect roughly a 1 point, we expect roughly 1 point of price and the remaining organic growth to come from volume and mix up. We expect currency translation to be at about a point of headwind.

轉到第 12 張投影片並轉向 2025 年有機銷售指引。我們預計有機成長率將達到中等個位數，銷售額將在 225 億美元至 230 億美元之間。這還包括商業製冷出口帶來的 7.5 億美元年比逆風。我們預計價格大約上漲 1 個點，剩餘的有機成長將來自於數量和混合。我們預期貨幣轉換將面臨阻力。

The organic growth for Board segments is expected to be up mid-single digits for 2025. Within HVAC, we expect the Americas to be up high single digits driven by continued double-digit growth in commercial, high single-digit growth in residential, driven by the new refrigerant mix up and low to mid-single-digit growth in light commercial.

預計到 2025 年，紙板部門的有機成長率將達到中等個位數。在暖通空調領域，我們預計美洲地區將實現高個位數成長，這得益於商用領域繼續保持兩位數增長、住宅領域實現高個位數增長、新型製冷劑組合增長以及輕型商用領域實現低至中等個位數增長。

We expect Europe to be up low single digits with commercial up double digits and flat sales growth in residential and light commercial. Dave just walked you through our assumptions for flat sales growth in this market segment.

我們預期歐洲銷售將呈現低個位數成長，商業銷售將呈現兩位數成長，住宅和輕型商業銷售將持平。戴夫剛剛向您介紹了我們對該領域銷售平穩增長的假設。

Finally, within Asia, we expect low single sales growth with China sales flat and mid-single-digit growth outside of China. Within Refrigeration, we expect Global Truck and trailer to be up mid-single digits with North America truck trailer returning to growth in the second half of the year. We expect mid to high single-digit growth in container and double-digit growth in Sensitech.

最後，在亞洲，我們預計單日銷售額成長率較低，其中中國市場的銷售額將持平，而中國以外地區的銷售額將實現中等個位數成長。在冷凍領域，我們預計全球卡車和拖車銷量將成長中等個位數，北美卡車拖車銷量將在下半年恢復成長。我們預計容器業務將實現中高個位數成長，而 Sensitech 業務將實現兩位數成長。

Moving on to slide 13, profit and cash guidance. Total company adjusted operating margin is expected to be up about 100 basis points compared to 2024 with half of the increase driven by volume, price and net productivity, partially offset by investments. The absence of commercial refrigeration contributes 50 basis points of margin expansion.

轉到第 13 張投影片，利潤和現金指引。公司調整後總營業利潤率預計將比 2024 年上升約 100 個基點，其中一半增幅由銷量、價格和淨生產力推動，部分則被投資所抵銷。商業冷凍的缺失使利潤率增加了50個基點。

Core earnings conversion that is excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and FX is expected to be about 30%. We estimate free cash flow to be about $2.4 billion, to be between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion, reflecting roughly 100% conversion with normal seasonality. Finally, we intend to repurchase about $3 billion in shares. Through last week, we repurchased about 900 million of shares so far this year. We estimate that average diluted share count for 2025 will be down about 5% from 2024.

排除收購、資產剝離和外匯影響的核心獲利轉換率預計約為 30%。我們估計自由現金流約為 24 億美元，介於 24 億美元至 26 億美元之間，反映了正常季節性條件下約 100% 的轉換率。最後，我們打算回購約30億美元的股票。截至上週，今年迄今我們回購了約 9 億股。我們預計，2025 年平均稀釋股數將較 2024 年下降約 5%。

Moving to slide 14. We expect adjusted EPS between $2.95 and $3.05, up 17% at the midpoint. The building blocks are identical to what we shared with you on the last earnings call, except for currency. Adjusted EPS growth includes about $0.30 of operational performance driven by volume leverage, price and net productivity and about $45 million of corporate stranded cost elimination, partially offset by investments. We expect foreign currency translation to represent a headwind of about $0.05. As a result of debt paydown, we expect net interest expense to be a $0.05 to $0.10 tailwind.

移至投影片 14。我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 2.95 美元至 3.05 美元之間，中間值將上漲 17%。除貨幣外，其基本要素與我們在上次收益電話會議上與您分享的相同。調整後的每股盈餘成長包括由銷售槓桿、價格和淨生產力推動的約 0.30 美元的營運績效，以及約 4,500 萬美元的企業擱淺成本消除，部分由投資抵銷。我們預計外幣折算將帶來約 0.05 美元的阻力。由於債務償還，我們預計淨利息支出將為 0.05 美元至 0.10 美元帶來順風。

Finally, we expect a lower share count, partially offset by a 22% tax rate and NCI to provide another $0.10 to $0.15 of EPS benefit. With respect to capital deployment, we'll pay down $1.2 billion worth of debt this quarter. The dividend per share increases by 18%. And as I mentioned earlier, share repurchases are expected to amount to $3 billion this year. As usual, additional guide items are in the appendix on slide 17.

最後，我們預期股數會減少，但 22% 的稅率和 NCI 會部分抵銷這一影響，從而帶來另外 0.10 至 0.15 美元的每股盈餘收益。在資本部署方面，本季我們將償還價值 12 億美元的債務。每股股利增加18%。正如我之前提到的，今年的股票回購金額預計將達到 30 億美元。與往常一樣，附加指南內容位於投影片 17 的附錄中。

Finally, let me provide some additional color on the first quarter. We anticipate Q1 revenues to be about flat sequentially, a little more than $5 billion with first quarter organic revenue growth flat to up low single digits. This reflects continued strength in global commercial HVAC and a tough comparison in resulite commercial HVAC in Europe and China.

最後，讓我對第一季提供一些額外的資訊。我們預計第一季營收將與上一季基本持平，略高於 50 億美元，第一季有機收入成長率將持平至低個位數。這反映了全球商用暖通空調市場的持續強勁成長，以及歐洲和中國商用暖通空調市場的嚴峻對比。

We expect organic growth for refrigeration to be about flat. We expect about 100 basis points of margin expansion in Q1 and adjusted EPS to be between $0.55 and $0.60. So overall, we ended 2024 on a strong note and expect 2025 to be another year of strong financial performance.

我們預計製冷業務的有機成長將基本持平。我們預計第一季利潤率將擴大約 100 個基點，調整後每股收益將在 0.55 美元至 0.60 美元之間。總體而言，我們以強勁的業績結束了 2024 年，並預計 2025 年將是另一個財務表現強勁的一年。

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

現在，我們將開始回答問題。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑弗瑞‧斯普拉格 (Jeffrey Sprague)，垂直研究。

Hey, thank you, good morning, everyone. Good morning, Dave, Patrick. Mike, good to hear you're there, too. Can we just drill a little bit more into resi and what you saw in the quarter. So you're characterizing it, I guess, as no pre-buy or no significant pre-buy. Maybe you can just kind of elaborate on that. Does that suggest your holding inventory that you sell into genral in Q1? Or any other kind of color on how the kind of pieces moving parts together?

嘿，謝謝大家，早安。早上好，戴夫、派崔克。麥克，很高興聽到你也在那裡。我們能否更深入地了解房地產以及您在本季看到的情況。所以，我猜你將其描述為沒有預買或沒有顯著的預買。也許您可以詳細闡述這一點。這是否表示您持有的庫存在第一季被賣掉了？或任何其他種類的顏色如何將各種移動部件組合在一起？

Yes, Jeff, we'd say that we had a bit of pre-buy basically what we thought back in October, we shipped about $75 million to $100 million worth of 410A units that we would characterize were pull ahead from this year into last year. And we calculate this by looking at the inventory levels that are held by our distributors, which were just slightly elevated versus the same time last year.

是的，傑夫，我們會說我們進行了一些預購，基本上就像我們在 10 月所想的那樣，我們出貨了價值約 7500 萬至 1 億美元的 410A 設備，我們認為這些設備的數量從今年拉到了去年。我們透過查看分銷商持有的庫存水準來計算這一數字，與去年同期相比，庫存水準略有上升。

And as Patrick said, movement was very strong in 4Q. Movement was up about 15% from our distributors to our dealers and we were up about that same amount in January, first week of February was a little bit lower than that. So look, inventory in the channel, not too high, movement goods. So we think that nearly everything we shipped was underlying true demand with maybe 75 to 100 of pre-buy.

正如帕特里克所說，第四季的走勢非常強勁。從我們的經銷商到經銷商的流動量增加了約 15％，1 月的增幅也大致相同，2 月第一周的增幅略低。所以看，渠道中的庫存，不是太高，貨物流動。因此，我們認為，我們運送的幾乎所有商品都存在真實需求，其中預購商品大概佔 75% 到 100%。

And Jeff (inaudible) inventory in Q1. So we did help (inaudible). Yes, we will sell some (inaudible) in Q1 from inventory.

以及 Jeff（聽不清楚）第一季的庫存。所以我們確實提供了幫助（聽不清楚）。是的，我們將在第一季出售一些庫存（聽不清楚）。

Right. And then so getting to high single digit for the year, we got in 410A in Q1. And then we've sort of got price related mix effect for the balance of the year getting us to high single digit. What do you think the kind of realized prices on the 454B units on an all-in basis?

正確的。那麼，今年我們的銷售額就達到了高個位數，第一季我們達到了 410A。然後，我們得到了與價格相關的混合效應，使全年餘額達到高個位數。您認為 454B 單位的全部實現價格是多少？

Yes, Jeff, about 10%. But let me walk you through the high single digits. It's really along the lines you were saying. So we think that volume will be flat to down low single digits, which includes that modest pre-buy that I just mentioned.

是的，傑夫，大約 10%。但讓我帶你了解高個位數。這確實和你所說的一致。因此，我們認為交易量將持平至低個位數，其中包括我剛才提到的適度預買。

Then we expect base price to be up low single digits. So between those two, you're about flattish. The benefit of the mix up of the transition to be high single digits. So 80% of our volume is impacted by the refrigerant transition. 20% is not affected because they are either furnaces or things we ship to Canada.

那我們預計底價將上漲個位數。因此，在這兩者之間，你的表現比較平穩。混合轉型帶來的好處是高個位數。因此，我們 80% 的產量都受到冷媒轉換的影響。 20% 不受影響，因為它們要么是爐子，要么是我們運往加拿大的物品。

Of that 80%, Jeff, we expect about 90% of that to be 454B and about 10% to be the 410A. And of that 454B, we expect a 10%, to realize a 10% price increase. So that mix up alone, that gets you to about 7% sales growth. And then we expect modest growth in the remaining 20% of the business.

傑夫，在這 80% 中，我們預計大約 90% 是 454B，大約 10% 是 410A。而對於那 454B，我們預計會成長 10%，從而實現 10% 的價格上漲。因此，僅憑這種組合就能實現約 7% 的銷售成長。我們預計剩餘 20% 的業務將適度成長。

Thank you for that. Great color. And maybe just a quick one, and I'll pass it on. Just on the share repurchase, I think many of us thought you might do an ASR, it looks like you bought a lot the way in Q4. Is that the plan for the balance of 2025 also as the regular way our repo.

謝謝你。顏色很棒。也許只是一個簡短的，然後我就會傳遞它。僅就股票回購而言，我想我們很多人都認為您可能會進行 ASR，看起來您在第四季度購買了很多股票。這是 2025 年餘額計劃，也是我們的常規回購方式。

Yes, Jeff. Exactly, as you said, we achieved the same thing without an ASR. And from not until the balance of the year, we'll expect to be in the market throughout the year.

是的，傑夫。確實，正如您所說，我們在沒有 ASR 的情況下也實現了同樣的目標。從那時起直到今年年底，我們預計全年都會進入市場。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Good morning everyone.

大家早安。

Morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Dave, so maybe just a little more color into your outlook for (inaudible)'25 . I know for a while, you were talking about a stronger potential revenue growth possible in '25 and now you're talking about this 24% backlog reduction headwind. Of course, German elections are coming up.

戴夫，也許我可以再多談談你對 (聽不清楚)'25 的展望。我知道有一段時間，您正在談論'25年可能出現的更強勁的潛在收入增長，而現在您又在談論24%的積壓訂單減少阻力。當然，德國大選即將到來。

So maybe just talk about the visibility to get to that flat growth. And is it derisked now in your opinion in the guidance when you look at the items that are in your control, aftermarket synergies, how much visibility do you have in getting those pieces of growth?

因此，也許只是談論實現平穩增長的可見性。當您查看您控制的項目、售後市場協同效應時，您認為現在指導中的風險是否已經降低，您對獲得這些成長的可見性有多大？

Yes, I think so. I think that it's a very balance guide, perhaps conservative, but we'll see. I mean, look, we, when we look at the total market, we just have to be honest that there is a fair amount of economic and political uncertainty in Europe. So we put that volume at flat to down 5%. And we did see, I think first quarter of last year was the last quarter that I think we shipped out of some level of excess backlog.

是的，我認為是這樣。我認為這是一個非常平衡的指南，也許有些保守，但我們拭目以待。我的意思是，當我們看待整個市場時，我們必須誠實地認識到歐洲存在相當大的經濟和政治不確定性。因此我們將交易量設定為持平或下降 5%。我們確實看到，我認為去年第一季是我們解決一定程度的過剩積壓問題的最後一個季度。

So that now normalizes in the second quarter of this year, but that will cause us about 5 points of total full year headwind. The stuff that, so that kind of walked us down to, say, down 5 points to 10 points. But when we look at what's in our control, 3 points to 4 points of mix up, that assumes double-digit heat pump growth and down a bit in boilers. And we have pretty good visibility to that.

因此，這種情況在今年第二季度已經恢復正常，但這將導致我們全年總體逆風約 5 個百分點。這些東西讓我們的分數下降了，比如說，下降了 5 分到 10 分。但是，當我們看看我們可以控制什麼時，3 點到 4 點的混合，假設熱泵以兩位數增長，而鍋爐則略有下降。我們對此有相當好的認知。

If you look at the second half of last year, just in Germany, or the subsidy applications were up around 65% year-over-year, up 60% on a two year stack. Viessmann heat pump orders in the half were up about 40%. So some early indications that there's underlying demand for heat pumps in Germany. So 3 points to 4 points of mix up, we'll get a point or two of aftermarket with double-digit growth, a point or so of price.

如果你看看去年下半年，光是在德國，補助申請就比去年同期增加了約 65％，兩年累計增加了 60％。上半年Viessmann熱泵訂單增加了約40％。因此，一些早期跡象顯示德國對熱泵有潛在需求。因此，3 點到 4 點的混合，我們將獲得 1 點或 2 點的售後市場兩位數增長，1 點左右的價格。

And then that bucket of revenue synergies, we're looking about $100 million of revenue synergies this year around the globe, probably 70% in Europe. And I could tell you, Andy, we have that like line by line, the air conditioning units with Carrier brand going through the Viessmann channel. We have Hydronics, we have system-level sales that we're taking from Europe to use for HEMS in the United States.

然後是營收綜效，我們預計今年全球的營收綜效約為 1 億美元，其中歐洲大概佔 70%。我可以告訴你，安迪，我們逐行銷售開利品牌的空調機組，這些空調機組均透過 Viessmann 管道銷售。我們有水力學技術，我們有系統級銷售，我們從歐洲進口到美國的 HEMS 使用。

We have multi-brand strategy in China. So details on the revenue synergies. System cell in could be a new frontier for us this year as we really put the wheels in motion to drive that. Share gains, again, this year, NPI again this year. So we feel good about what's in our control, and we'll keep an eye on the market.

我們在中國實行多品牌策略。關於收入協同效應的詳細資訊。隨著我們真正開始努力推動這一進程，系統單元可能成為我們今年的一個新領域。今年，股價再次上漲，NPI 也再次上漲。因此，我們對自己能掌控的事情感到很滿意，並且會密切關注市場。

Very helpful, David. And then David, Patrick, it looks like you're forecasting something like low 30s incrementals for HVAC in '25 maybe puts and takes to get there, especially because it's topical around tariffs. How do you account in your bridge? Do you put the China in there? And then there's obviously steel and aluminum, I just got passed, can you remind us of the cost structure on that side of the business?

非常有幫助，大衛。然後大衛、派崔克，看起來你們預測 25 年 HVAC 的增量會低於 30%，也許需要付出努力才能達到這個目標，尤其是因為它與關稅有關。你如何在你的橋樑中解釋？你把中國放進去了嗎？然後顯然還有鋼鐵和鋁，我剛剛說完了，你能提醒我們這方面的業務成本結構嗎？

Yes. I'll just talk very high level on the tariffs. We have embedded into our guide what's happened with the tariffs related to China and those are fully mitigated in our guide for this year. With respect to what has happened more recently about some of the materials. Most of the materials we purchase such as steel actually come from US vendors.

是的。我只想從高層次談關稅問題。我們在指南中嵌入了與中國相關的關稅情況，這些關稅已在今年的指南中得到全面緩解。關於最近發生的一些材料的情況。我們採購的大多數材料（例如鋼材）實際上都來自美國供應商。

In addition to that, we are pretty well blocked for the full year. In North America, I think we're blocked for about 80%, close to 80% of our steel volume. So generally, we think we're in a pretty good position there.

除此之外，我們全年的狀況也相當糟糕。在北美，我認為我們的鋼鐵產量約 80%、接近 80% 被封鎖。所以總的來說，我們認為我們處於相當有利的地位。

With respect to your questions on the margins for next year, and I'll talk at the overall company level because given the size of HVAC, it applies to that as well. What you can think about is differently than in '24, '25, we expect a bigger contribution from organic sales growth, that's both volume and, of course, the mix up.

關於您關於明年利潤率的問題，我將從整個公司層面進行討論，因為考慮到 HVAC 的規模，這也適用於該領域。你可以想想與24年、25年不同的是，我們預期有機銷售成長將帶來更大的貢獻，這既包括銷量，當然也包括混合。

That, combined with strong productivity. Those are the main drivers of margin expansion, and that then would be offset by reinvestments in our business. And so it's really driven by organic growth, continued strong productivity, the impact of the mix up, of course, offset by reinvestments in our business.

再加上強大的生產力。這些都是利潤率擴大的主要驅動力，而這些利潤率將會透過對我們業務的再投資而被抵消。因此，這實際上是由有機成長、持續強勁的生產力所推動的，當然，混合的影響被我們業務的再投資所抵消。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的色彩。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just first off on the organic sales guide for the year. So you're starting out with sort of flat to up slightly in the first quarter, total company, the year is up mid-single digits. So maybe walk us through kind of how we think about growth for the rest of the year after Q1 and maybe put a finer point on the cadence of a couple of the businesses most in focus, which are Viessmann and the Americas resi HVAC, please?

嗨，早安。也許只是先介紹今年的有機銷售指南。因此，第一季整個公司的業績從持平到略有上升，全年則成長了中等個位數。因此，您能否向我們介紹一下我們對第一季之後今年剩餘時間的成長的看法，並更詳細地介紹一下最受​​關注的幾個業務的發展節奏，即 Viessmann 和美洲住宅 HVAC？

Yes. So Julian, from an overall company point of view, I said flat to low single digits in Q1. That would also, as I mentioned, mean refrigeration flattish and HVAC, therefore, low single digits. Within Q1, VCS because of the tough comp that Dave referred to likely between 10% and 15% down in Q1.

是的。因此，朱利安，從整個公司的角度來看，我認為第一季的成長將持平至個位數低點。正如我所提到的，這也意味著冷凍業務持平，而暖通空調業務則為個位數的低成長。在第一季度，由於 Dave 提到的嚴峻形勢，VCS 的營收可能會下降 10% 至 15%。

And then starting in Q2, we expect sales growth to be in the high single-digit range for the overall company and that include or is particularly the case for HVAC and also for Viessmann. We expect Viessmann in Q2 to be mid-single digits of growth and then the rest of HVAC to be pretty strong as well.

從第二季開始，我們預計整個公司的銷售額成長將達到高個位數，其中包括或特別是 HVAC 和 Viessmann。我們預計 Viessmann 在第二季將實現中等個位數的成長，其餘 HVAC 業務也將保持強勁成長。

And so that takes you Q2 in the high single-digit range. That we expect that to continue into Q3 and then the Q4 sales growth to maybe taper down a little bit to the mid-single digits.

這樣一來，第二季的業績就會進入高個位數範圍。我們預計這種趨勢將持續到第三季度，然後第四季的銷售成長可能會略微下降至中等個位數。

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then maybe if you could focus for a second just on the light commercial business in the Americas. There's often a lot of investor concerns around decline there. And obviously, the orders quarter-to-quarter are lumpy. You're guiding for revenue growth, I think low to mid-single digits for this year ahead in Americas like commercial. So maybe just help us understand kind of how you see the market dynamics there? Any concerns around the education vertical given ESRA funding moving lower, any color on that vertical would be great.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後也許您可以稍微關註一下美洲的輕型商用業務。很多投資者常常擔心那裡的衰退。顯然，季度間的訂單量並不均勻。您對於收入成長的預期是，我認為今年美洲地區的商業收入將會維持在低到中等個位數。所以也許您可以幫助我們了解您如何看待那裡的市場動態？鑑於 ESRA 資金減少，對教育垂直領域的任何擔憂，任何關於該垂直領域的詳細資訊都會有所幫助。

Yes. Let me just say in terms of the latter piece, specifically with the ASR funding, even though that will start to obviously come to its end, it's going to be replaced with the bond funding from the states, which could be about $76 billion of the bond referendums that have been passed in 30 states or so. So I'll tell you, Julian, we've seen great growth in K-12.

是的。我只想說，就後一部分而言，特別是關於 ASR 融資，儘管它顯然會開始結束，但它將被來自各州的債券融資所取代，這可能約為 30 個州左右通過的債券公投中的 760 億美元。所以我要告訴你，朱利安，我們看到了 K-12 的巨大成長。

Orders for us last year were up 20%. So we feel good about the growth in '25, '26. When we look at light commercial overall, we expect sales growth to be up low to mid-single digits. And kind of like resi, it's driven by the mix up of 454B. We assume a flattish market.

去年我們的訂單增加了20%。因此，我們對25年和26年的成長感到滿意。當我們整體看待輕型商用車時，我們預期銷售額成長率將達到低至中等個位數。有點像 resi，它是由 454B 混合驅動的。我們假設市場略顯平淡。

Actually, the first quarter will be our toughest compare. So we think that will be down, say, 5% to 10% in light commercial. And then, when we think about the full year, the benefit from the mix up is somewhat similar to what we said on resi, but 90% of our volume is impacted by the refrigerant transition. So that 10% excludes sales, for example, the Canada, other sales outside the US.

實際上，第一季將是我們最艱難的比較。因此我們認為輕型商用車的銷售量將下降 5% 到 10%。然後，當我們考慮全年時，混合帶來的好處與我們在 resi 上所說的有些類似，但 90% 的銷售量受到冷媒轉換的影響。因此 10% 不包括銷售額，例如加拿大和美國以外的其他銷售額。

Of that 90%, we expect 80% of that to be 454B, and we expect mid to high single-digit price increase there and then the 20% will be 410A in 2025. So like I said, K-12 looks pretty good. Some of the other verticals are good. Some are in decline that have been in decline like commercial real estate and warehouse. So we feel balanced on the year at that low to mid-single digits.

在這 90% 中，我們預計 80% 為 454B，並且我們預計那裡的價格將出現中高個位數漲幅，而到 2025 年，20% 將是 410A。所以就像我說的，K-12 看起來相當不錯。其他一些垂直行業也不錯。有些產業已經陷入衰退，例如商業不動產和倉庫。因此，我們認為今年的成長將在低至中等個位數之間保持平衡。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hi, good morning. Just on the resi side, the HRI data is obviously up, pretty substantially. You guys are talking like others about a more modest degree of pre-buy. Is there, do you think you're kind of in line with the industry? Is there somebody else that may be selling more? And maybe just talk about how you see the competitive environment playing out in the first half?

嗨，早安。僅從房地產方面來看，HRI 數據顯然大幅上漲。你們和其他人一樣，正在談論更適度的預購。您覺得您與這個產業符合嗎？有其他人可能賣更多嗎？能否談談您如何看待上半年的競爭環境？

Well, look, we have tools where we look at by distributor exactly how much inventory they're holding. And we're looking at inventory levels, underlying demand driven and looking at movement. And when we do not a tops-down assessment, but a true bottoms-up assessment of what we think in the market and what we think the true demand is from our distributors, that's how we got to the $75 million to $100 million. I will say that on a 12-month roll, when we look at last year, we did gain around 100 bps of share, but that's our assessment of what we think the pre-buy was.

嗯，看，我們有工具可以查看經銷商到底持有多少庫存。我們正在關注庫存水準、潛在需求驅動以及走勢。當我們不是進行自上而下的評估，而是對市場狀況以及經銷商的真正需求進行自下而上的評估時，我們便獲得了 7,500 萬到 1 億美元的收入。我想說的是，當我們回顧去年的 12 個月時，我們的份額確實增長了約 100 個基點，但這是我們對預買情況的評估。

And as far as heading into this year, and pricing in the marketplace. Do you see anybody, obviously, there were some big share shifts last year with one of your major competitors. What are you seeing in the channel there? And are you concerned at all about any efforts there to regain that share?

就今年的情況以及市場定價而言。您是否看到有人明顯地註意到，去年您的一個主要競爭對手的市場份額發生了重大變化。您在那裡的頻道上看到了什麼？您是否擔心那裡為重新獲得這一份額所做的任何努力？

Look, that's something that's come up every year for like the last five years, we get a variation of that question, which is we've announced pricing. Do we think it will stick because someone else may end up being more aggressive. And every year about what we thought we'd get in price, we've gotten in price. So we think we'll realize about 10% from 454B. Whether or not everyone in the industry is at that level, it's hard for me to say.

你看，這是過去五年每年都會出現的問題，我們都會得到類似的問題，那就是我們已經宣布了定價。我們是否認為它會堅持下去，因為其他人最終可能會變得更具攻擊性。每年，我們預期的價格都會達到我們預期的價格。因此我們認為我們將從 454B 中實現約 10% 的收益。我很難說這個行業中的每個人是否都達到了這個水平。

Right, okay. Thanks.

好的，好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿，大家早安。

Hey Joe, good morning.

嘿喬，早安。

Hey. Can you guys give us just an update on your capacity additions on Americas Commercial. I think I recall you guys pretty significantly increasing your capacity and then ultimately, what does that ultimately mean for like being able to maybe convert your backlog faster in the next like 12 to 24 months?

嘿。你們能否向我們介紹一下美洲商業產能增加的最新情況？我想我記得你們已經大大提高了產能，那麼最終，這對於在未來 12 到 24 個月內更快地轉換積壓訂單最終意味著什麼？

Yes. It's a really big deal for us, Joe. I honestly could not be more proud of our operations team because we basically stood up a brand-new facility in North America for commercial HVAC, something that would normally take maybe 18 to 24 months, we did in about 7 to 8 months. So we're ready, we're shipping our first units out of our new North American facility.

是的。喬，這對我們來說真的是一件大事。老實說，我對我們的營運團隊感到無比自豪，因為我們基本上在北美建立了一個全新的商用 HVAC 設施，這件事通常需要 18 到 24 個月，但我們只用了大約 7 到 8 個月就完成了。我們已經準備好了，正在從我們新的北美工廠運送第一批產品。

We're maxing out our Charlotte, North Carolina facility. So with the capacity that we've now built, we have the ability to significantly increase our Charlotte output probably by about 50%. And then we have the ability to get to that same level, if not more from our new facilities. So we can more than double our output for North America.

我們正在最大限度地利用位於北卡羅來納州夏洛特的工廠。因此，憑藉我們目前已建成的產能，我們有能力大幅提高夏洛特的產量，大概可提高 50% 左右。然後我們有能力透過我們的新設施達到同樣的水平，甚至更高。因此我們可以將北美的產量提高一倍以上。

And the demand has been great. The only thing, frankly, as that's been constraining our demand has been our capacity. And now with the increased capacity, we're starting to bid out of it, assuming that increased capacity, which really positions us for great growth in commercial HVAC out of North America.

而且需求一直都很大。坦白說，唯一限制我們需求的就是我們的產能。現在，隨著產能的增加，我們開始競標，假設產能增加，這將真正為我們在北美商用暖通空調領域的巨大成長奠定基礎。

Great to hear. And then just my quick follow-up on Viessmann. You guys gave a lot of color around your growth expectations for the year. Can you maybe give us a little bit more on just the margins and the work that you've done from a cost structure standpoint and how we should expect those margins to improve in 2025?

很高興聽到這個消息。然後我只是對 Viessmann 進行快速跟進。你們對今年的成長預期做出了許多闡述。您能否從成本結構的角度向我們詳細介紹利潤率和您所做的工作，以及我們預期 2025 年這些利潤率將如何提高？

Yes. We ended last year with our EBITDA ROS in the low teens. We think that with the actions that we've taken and will take, that will get to the mid-teens this year. We're looking, last year, we were looking at about $75 million of cost synergies on a run rate basis. We expect that to be $150 million this year.

是的。去年年底，我們的 EBITDA ROS 處於百分之十幾左右。我們認為，透過我們已經採取和將要採取的行動，今年這一數字將達到 15% 左右。我們正在研究，去年，我們以運行率計算的成本協同效應約為 7500 萬美元。我們預計今年的數字將達到 1.5 億美元。

So Thomas and the team took out, as I mentioned, a lot of temporary and structural costs. And we're continuing to drive cost. And then again, we won't see the kind of top line growth that we know we'll see in future years, but the cost takeout has been significant and will continue to be significant.

正如我所提到的那樣，托馬斯和他的團隊承擔了大量臨時和結構性成本。而且我們還在持續提高成本。而且，我們不會看到未來幾年那種我們知道會實現的營收成長，但成本支出已經很高，而且還會繼續很高。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Got a lot of ground here. So just a couple of quick cleanups. I think, Patrick, you said 10% of the units this year will be 410A versus 454B. So I'm guessing that the cluster of 410A units held inventory, that's the 10% that happens in 1Q. Just wanted to confirm that.

謝謝。大家早安。這裡有大片土地。因此，只需進行幾次快速清理。派崔克，我認為您說過今年 10% 的單位將是 410A，而不是 454B。所以我猜測 410A 單元集群持有庫存，這是第一季發生的 10%。只是想確認一下。

And then the mid-teens movement is something that's getting a lot of attention out there in the market. So just maybe just, why do you think that's so strong? Maybe just talk about some market share gains, perhaps. So, maybe do you think that there's contractors of pre-bought units and holding them in the inventory or install them? Just wonder if there's any intel on what's happened at the contract level.

而青少年中期運動則在市場上引起了許多關注。那麼也許只是，你為什麼認為它如此強大？或許只是談論一些市場份額的成長，也許。那麼，您是否認為有承包商預先購買單位並將其存放在庫存中或安裝它們？只是想知道是否有關於合約層面發生的事情的資訊。

Nigel, I was mentioning to Steve that yes, we do think with high confidence that we gained about 100 bps of share last year. And credit goes to the transition we did back in '23 and '25, a very seamless transition with the (inaudible) change and the team did a great job with the refrigerant change leading into this year. We had the capacity. We had the 410A unit, so we were able to produce both sets of units.

奈傑爾，我跟史蒂夫說過，是的，我們確實非常有信心地認為，去年我們的市佔率成長了約 100 個基點。這要歸功於我們在 1923 年和 1925 年進行的過渡，這是一個非常無縫的過渡，團隊在今年的冷媒變革方面做得很好。我們有能力。我們有 410A 單元，因此我們能夠生產這兩組單元。

We have near perfect visibility into the inventory in our distribution channel. We do not have perfect visibility into the inventory in our dealer channel. We have anecdotal visibility. In general, we have, we can have about 100,000 dealers and many of them typically hold very, very little inventory for a whole bunch of reasons.

我們對分銷管道中的庫存有近乎完美的了解。我們對經銷商通路的庫存並沒有完美的了解。我們有軼事可見性。總體而言，我們擁有大約 100,000 家經銷商，由於各種原因，其中許多經銷商通常持有的庫存非常少。

But can I tell you what certainty exactly how much they're holding? No, but it would be unusual for them to stock too much. So we feel very balanced on the mix that we've laid out for this year versus last year.

但我能否確定地告訴你他們到底持有多少？不會，但是他們庫存過多的情況是不尋常的。因此，我們認為今年與去年制定的組合非常平衡。

Then Nigel, the answer to your first question is yes, we expect all 410A to be flushed out in Q1 for resi.

那麼 Nigel，你的第一個問題的答案是肯定的，我們預計所有 410A 將在第一季被清除。

Okay. Thanks a lot. That's two questions, I'll leave it there. Thanks.

好的。多謝。這是兩個問題，我就不多說了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Deane Dray, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

Hey, Deane.

嘿，迪恩。

Hey, I would like to drill down a bit on Quantum LEAP initiative, if we could. Just give us a sense of the contribution from data center for '24. How much did it grow with expectations for '25? And anything you can give us an update on the SLA partnership, how that's going? And it looks like you've broadened some of the product lines within that business as well.

嘿，如果可以的話，我想深入了解 Quantum LEAP 計畫。請向我們介紹資料中心對 24 年的貢獻。對於 25 年的預期成長了多少？您能否向我們提供 SLA 合作關係的最新進展？而且看起來你們也拓寬了該業務中的一些產品線。

Yes. Let me start with data centers overall, Deane. Last year, it was about $0.5 billion of sales for us for data centers and this year, we think it will double. So we're looking at $1 billion of data center sales this year. So it went from about 10% of our CA track total sales to probably around 15% this year. And remember, the really exciting thing down the road will be the aftermarket sales.

是的。迪恩，讓我先從資料中心整體說起。去年，我們的資料中心銷售額約為 5 億美元，今年我們認為這一數字將會翻倍。因此我們預計今年資料中心的銷售額將達到 10 億美元。因此，它占我們CA軌道總銷售額的比重從約10%上升到今年的15%左右。請記住，未來真正令人興奮的事情是售後市場銷售。

So we've done, I got to give credit to the team that we stood up our first programmatic team that's focused on a single vertical data centers, Christian (inaudible) and the team under Geron's leadership have one, had great wins with the hyperscalers, and we're applying that same intensity to the colos not only in the United States, but globally. So I think we're really in the first inning of some of the key wins that we've had there, and I just see an opportunity for outsized growth in data centers in '25 and beyond.

所以，我們做到了，我要讚揚團隊，我們成立了第一個專注於單一垂直數據中心的程序化團隊，Christian（聽不清）和 Geron 領導下的團隊在超大規模數據中心方面取得了巨大的勝利，我們將同樣的強度應用於不僅在美國，而且在全球範圍內的託管數據中心。因此，我認為我們實際上正處於一些關鍵勝利的第一階段，而且我看到了 25 年及以後資料中心超額成長的機會。

The STL partnership that you mentioned is exciting because we're starting to do more in liquid cooling. STL in our single phase, we have a new investment that we're making in a two phase solution, which is a refrigerant-based solution. And then we recently launched, we announced Quantum Leap, which is very exciting because the whole idea is that we can be a one-stop shop for all the cooling needs that you would have for a data center.

您提到的 STL 合作夥伴關係令人興奮，因為我們開始在液體冷卻領域做更多工作。在我們的單相 STL 中，我們對兩相解決方案進行了新的投資，這是一種基於冷媒的解決方案。然後我們最近推出了 Quantum Leap，這非常令人興奮，因為整個想法是我們可以成為滿足資料中心所有冷卻需求的一站式商店。

So you're looking at traditional cooling, the chillers and the air handlers. You're looking at NLI, which you can do server management, you're looking at BMS through our ALC business and then combining the traditional liquid cooling loop with the traditional cooling loop with liquid cooling that we're now introducing our own CDUs right now.

您正在查看的是傳統的冷卻裝置、冷卻器和空氣處理器。您正在查看 NLI，它可以進行伺服器管理，您正在透過我們的 ALC 業務查看 BMS，然後將傳統液體冷卻迴路與傳統冷卻迴路與液體冷卻相結合，我們現在正在推出我們自己的 CDU。

So the idea for hyperscalers and certainly the colos is to say, you worry about running the data centers, let us worry about all the cooling you need by having optimized integrated cooling systems. So we're excited about data centers. We're very excited about the orders growth that we've seen. We feel really well positioned for this year. And frankly, that's going to continue to grow as we get into '26 and '27.

因此，對於超大規模企業和託管服務提供者來說，他們的想法是，您擔心運行資料中心，我們透過優化整合冷卻系統來擔心您所需的所有冷卻。因此我們對數據中心感到非常興奮。我們對看到的訂單成長感到非常興奮。我們覺得自己今年的定位非常有利。坦白說，隨著我們進入26年和27年，這一數字還將繼續增長。

Yes. That's all really good to hear, especially because that's what we're hearing from the hyperscale players who want an end-to-end solution on the cooling side. So if you have that with global scale, then you should see those, that type of growth.

是的。聽到這些真的很高興，特別是因為我們聽到超大規模資料中心參與者表達了他們的想法，他們希望在冷卻方面獲得端到端的解決方案。所以如果你把它放在全球範圍內看，那麼你就應該看到這種類型的成長。

And just as a follow-up for Patrick, it's just, it's a headwind for everyone, but just kind of give us a sense of the setup on FX, the headwind? And just remind us about any type of hedging that you do.

作為對帕特里克的後續報道，這對每個人來說都是一種逆風，但這能讓我們了解一下 FX 的設置，逆風嗎？只要提醒我們您進行的任何類型的對沖。

Yes. So for this year versus the prior year, the sales headwind is about $200 million. And then as I mentioned, it's about $0.05. That's mostly translation. And then on the transaction side, we do hedge the transactions. And so there is some protection, of course, there given all the transactions we go through. And then, of course, given some of the currency streams we have going on in the world, we do also some natural hedging as well. That's taking place as well. So I'll leave it at that.

是的。因此，與去年相比，今年的銷售逆風約為 2 億美元。正如我所提到的，它大約是 0.05 美元。這主要是翻譯。然後在交易方面，我們確實會對交易進行對沖。當然，考慮到我們進行的所有交易，這裡存在一些保護。當然，考慮到世界上的一些貨幣流動，我們也會進行一些自然的對沖。這也正在發生。所以我不再談論這個了。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thanks, Deane.

謝謝，迪恩。

Thanks, Dean.

謝謝，迪恩。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Could you just talk about the sort of tariff considerations. I think you touched on China and said actions have been taken there. But as it relates to Mexico, just how you're approaching that situation and size it for us?

嗨，早安。您能否談談有關關稅的考慮？我認為你提到了中國，並且說中國已經採取了行動。但就墨西哥而言，您如何處理這種情況並為我們分析其規模？

Yes, Joe, let me start more broadly and just say that we're proud to be the largest US domiciled company in our industry period. Also, I do want to mention that, we have about 10,000 people in the United States, which is up about 20% over the last five years on a comparable basis, and we just recently launched an initiative to add 1,000 technicians.

是的，喬，讓我從更廣泛的角度開始說，我們很自豪能夠成為我們行業歷史上最大的美國公司。另外，我想提一下，我們在美國大約有 10,000 名員工，與過去五年相比增長了約 20%，而且我們最近剛剛啟動了一項增加 1,000 名技術人員的計劃。

So we are invested in the US and will continue to be heavily invested in the United States. I think the tariffs right now in three categories. The first is what's been implemented, which is what Patrick talked about. We know about China, we know about the deal in aluminum, and we're confident that we have that mitigated.

因此，我們在美國投資，並將繼續在美國大力投資。我認為目前的關稅分為三類。第一是已經實施的，也就是派崔克談到的。我們了解中國，我們了解鋁的交易，我們有信心我們已經緩解了這個問題。

The second, I would put in the category of things other than Mexico that have been discussed like Canada and Europe. And based on what we know on these categories, we feel confident that we can and will mitigate those as well. As you mentioned, the big one that we have to keep an eye on is Mexico because we have operations down there. And we purchase a lot from there and do export into the United States.

第二，我會把墨西哥之外還討論過的其他事物歸入這個類別，例如加拿大和歐洲。根據我們對這些類別的了解，我們有信心能夠而且將會減輕這些影響。正如您所提到的，我們需要密切關注的重點是墨西哥，因為我們在那裡有業務。我們從那裡購買了很多產品並出口到美國。

Here's the deal. We do not know, there's so much we don't know. We don't know if they will go in place. We don't know if there will be exemptions at all. So there's a lot that we don't know. What I can tell you is the team is all over it. We are looking at price actions that we clearly would have to take. We're looking at operational actions that we would take, especially with our suppliers.

事情是這樣的。我們不知道，我們不知道的事情太多了。我們不知道他們是否會到位。我們根本不知道是否會有豁免。所以還有很多我們不知道的事。我可以告訴你的是，整個團隊都對此十分重視。我們正在研究顯然必須採取的價格行動。我們正在研究可採取的營運行動，特別是針對我們的供應商。

And we're also looking at that we would contemplate other actions that we would take unrelated to tariffs to make sure that we could mitigate any impact that we can't fully mitigate through pricing and supply chain issues.

我們也正在考慮採取與關稅無關的其他行動，以確保我們能夠減輕透過定價和供應鏈問題無法完全減輕的任何影響。

So what I'll tell you, Joe, is this is not the first time that we've dealt with tariffs. The team is incredibly focused on making sure that we deliver that $3 a share no matter what comes our way. So do we have everything figured out if there's a 25% tariff in Mexico. We don't have it geared out exactly yet.

所以我要告訴你，喬，這不是我們第一次處理關稅問題。無論遇到什麼情況，團隊都高度重視，確保我們能夠實現每股 3 美元的利潤。那麼，如果墨西哥有 25% 的關稅，我們是否已經弄清楚了一切？我們尚未完全做好準備。

But what I will tell you is that this team will go to tremendous lengths to make sure that we do mitigate it and ensure that we hit the $3 a share. I will also tell you that we are leaning into our factories in the United States. So, for example, we're significantly increasing our output out of Charlotte this year.

但我要告訴你們的是，這個團隊將竭盡全力確保我們確實減輕影響並確保達到每股 3 美元的目標。我也會告訴你們，我們正在依賴位於美國的工廠。例如，今年我們大幅增加了夏洛特的產量。

I appreciate all that color. And then I wanted to ask on the HVAC margin bridge. So the up 50 bps to 75 bps. Can you just give a little bit more color on puts and takes there. When we think about Viessmann synergy, 454B mix, I presume at a pretty decent incremental productivity. It would seem like there's some building blocks to do better than that 50bps to 75bps. And so just any offsets to that?

我很欣賞所有這些顏色。然後我想問一下 HVAC 利潤橋。因此上漲 50 個基點至 75 個基點。您能否對放置和接收進行更詳細的說明。當我們考慮 Viessmann 協同作用、454B 混合時，我推測增量生產力相當不錯。看起來似乎有一些基礎要素能夠比 50bps 到 75bps 做得更好。那麼對此有任何補償嗎？

Sure. The way you can think about it is the benefit of productivity, the price, including the mix up. Think of these as being about 150 bps year-over-year. And we're making significant investments as we do each year. And the investments this year actually are going to be more focused on the sales side than just on the R&D side. So it's pretty well balanced this year. And that offsets those tailwinds to get to the margin expansion that I just referred to.

當然。你可以這樣思考：生產力的好處、價格的好處、以及混合的好處。可以認為，年成長約 150 個基點。我們每年都在進行大量投資。今年的投資實際上將更多地集中在銷售方面，而不僅僅是研發方面。所以今年的情況相當平衡。這抵消了那些順風因素，實現了我剛才提到的利潤率擴大。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning, Andrew.

早安，安德魯。

Yes. You sort of highlighted this 1 percentage point of price for '25, if I'm correct. Are there any regions where you do not expect to get price or any verticals where price is flat to negative. I appreciate that the mix is in a softer bucket, but just any sort of discrepancy or pricing between regions or vertical. Thank you.

是的。如果我沒記錯的話，您好像強調了 25 年價格的 1% 點。是否存在您認為不會獲得價格的地區，或價格持平或為負值的垂直市場？我很欣賞將混合物放在更柔軟的桶裡，但只是存在區域或垂直之間的任何差異或定價。謝謝。

I'd say there are probably two areas where pricing might be a little less than that. One would be rough generally in that segment, we think it's going to be flattish this year. There will be some differences by region. The other one is in Asia, given, of course, what's happening in residential, like commercial in China, the price might be a little lighter there as well.

我想說可能有兩個地區的價格可能會略低於這個數字。總體來說，該領域的情況比較嚴峻，我們認為今年的情況將會持平。根據地區不同會有些差異。另一個是在亞洲，當然，考慮到中國住宅和商業領域的情況，那裡的價格可能也會稍微低一些。

Thank you, And just a follow-up on aftermarket progress. I think you guys have provided some KPIs, but can you just give us an update, just a more thorough update on the progress, attachment rates, maybe service as a percent of commercial HVAC business. How is that initiative evolved because, before all the debate about i Viessmann, that was a key focus. It seems like you guys are making very good progress. If you could give us some numbers there. Thank you.

謝謝！我認為你們已經提供了一些 KPI，但你能否向我們提供最新情況，即更詳細的進度更新、附件率，或許還有服務佔商業 HVAC 業務的百分比。該計劃是如何發展起來的？看起來你們取得了很大的進步。如果您能給我們一些數字的話。謝謝。

Sure, Andrew. I will tell you that it still is the key focus. There are all hands on deck on us driving double-digit aftermarket growth forever. Everyone that joins the company or within the company knows that, that's our mandate as a team. And all the underlying metrics on our control towers have been positive. We have nearly 50% attachment rate. It was up from 44% earlier.

當然，安德魯。我會告訴你，這仍然是重點。我們全力以赴，推動售後市場永遠達到兩位數的成長。加入公司或公司內部的每個人都知道，這是我們作為一個團隊的使命。我們控制塔的所有基本指標都是正面的。我們的附著率接近50%。較之前的 44% 上升。

Our total coverage for chillers. We said it was, it'd be around 80,000. It's in that range. I think it was just under by 1,000 or 2,000, so it's in that range. We talked about getting number of connected chillers out there. We continue, I think we connected around 45,000 chillers last year.

我們對冷水機組的全面覆蓋。我們說是的，大約有 80,000 個。就在那個範圍內。我認為它略低於 1,000 或 2,000，所以它在這個範圍內。我們討論了連接冷卻器的數量。我們繼續說，我認為去年我們連接了大約 45,000 台冷水機組。

So all of the underlying things, driving a bound in length as our digital platforms, driving attachment rates, driving coverage, driving connectivity. We feel really good about it, and we feel really good about double digits in this year.

因此，所有潛在的因素都在推動著我們的數位平台的長度、附著率、覆蓋率和連接性的提高。我們對此感覺非常好，我們對於今年的兩位數感到十分滿意。

So where are we as a percent of commercialized (inaudible) revenues to date?

那麼，迄今為止，我們佔商業化（聽不清楚）收入的百分比是多少？

I would say for Carrier, we are in the range of 27%. I think it's just there. And I think we're pushing to get it closer to 30% over these next few years.

我想說，對 Carrier 來說，我們的佔比在 27% 左右。我認為它就在那裡。我認為我們將在未來幾年內努力使這一比例接近 30%。

In commercial (inaudible).

在商業（聽不清楚）。

And then Patrick just added, I guess, it's a little bit higher for Commercial HVAC. Yes, as a percent. Thank you, Andrew.

然後派崔克又補充道，我猜，對於商用暖通空調來說，這個價格會高一點。是的，以百分比表示。謝謝你，安德魯。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I wanted to ask about Americas resi, which, I think, a bit stronger 35% this quarter, I think the expectation was 20% to 30%. It sounds like the pre-buy would moderate, I guess, did that come in maybe a little bit ahead of where you thought three months ago? Was just kind of end demand stronger with some of the movement in the channel you're highlighting? Thank you.

謝謝。我想問美洲房地產的情況，我認為本季的成長率會稍微高一些，達到 35%，預期是 20% 到 30%。這聽起來像是預購會有所緩和，我想，這是否可能比你三個月前預想的要早一點呢？隨著您所強調的管道中的某些動向，最終需求是否更加強勁？謝謝。

Yes. I think, Chris, it's really a combination of the higher movement than we thought did that we had expected. We had some share gains and I think just the overall underlying demand was a bit higher than we thought. And just remember, we were coming off such an easy compare from the fourth quarter of 2023, where we were down, I think our volume was down something like 28%. Our total sales were down around 18%. So we had an easy compare and the underlying demand was a bit more positive than we thought.

是的。克里斯，我認為，這確實是一個比我們想像的更高級別的運動的組合，這超出了我們的預期。我們的市佔率有所成長，我認為整體潛在需求比我們想像的要高一些。請記住，與 2023 年第四季相比，我們的銷量下降了，我認為我們的銷量下降了 28% 左右。我們的總銷售額下降了約18％。因此，我們進行了簡單的比較，發現潛在需求比我們想像的要積極一些。

Thank you. I appreciate that. And then, Dave, I guess when you either talk to kind of your channel partners or the dealers. Is there any concern around the consumer and the homeowner and maybe pushing a little bit more towards repair versus replace or just trading down.

謝謝。我很感激。然後，戴夫，我想當您與您的通路合作夥伴或經銷商交談時。消費者和房主是否會擔心這個問題，可能會更傾向於修理而不是更換，或者乾脆降低價格。

Obviously, we're pushing through [return] change over 10% this year, normal price, low single digits. The whole resi ATEC industry is relying on Mexico. So it seems like there's probably another price increase potentially coming over the next 12 months. Are you hearing any of that? Is that a concern in your conversations? Thank you.

顯然，我們今年的報酬率變動率將超過 10%，正常價格，低個位數。整個住宅 ATEC 行業都依賴墨西哥。因此，未來 12 個月內，價格似乎還可能再次上漲。你聽到這些了嗎？這是你們在談話中擔心的問題嗎？謝謝。

We, Chris, we look at that very deeply. We look at our elasticity curves. And the homeowners been through a lot of price increases over these last few years for sure. So it's something that we watch carefully and certainly tariffs would not help on the pricing side.

我們，克里斯，對此進行了深入的研究。我們來看看彈性曲線。而房主在過去幾年裡肯定經歷了大幅的房價上漲。因此，我們會密切關注這個問題，關稅肯定不會對定價方面有所幫助。

So the first thing we look at is, are we seeing a big switch over to repair versus replace. We have not seen that. We ask that of ourselves and our channel partners every month, every quarter. we've been paranoid about it, but we honestly have just not seen that.

所以我們首先要看的是，我們是否看到了從修復到更換的重大轉變。我們還沒有看到這一點。我們每個月、每季都會對自己和通路夥伴提出這樣的要求。我們一直對此很擔心，但說實話我們並沒有看到這一點。

We will see an occasional mix down at the margin, but nothing overly material. So it's something that we watch. We watch carefully. We, I think it's appropriate with price increases and to always look at the consumer, but we feel, right now, we feel very good. Patrick, you want to add something?

我們偶爾會看到邊緣混合，但不會出現過於實質的情況。所以這是我們所觀察的。我們仔細觀察。我認為，價格上漲是適當的，而且要始終關註消費者，但我們目前感覺非常好。派崔克，你想補充一點嗎？

No. Just a reminder that cost to the homeowner, only about one-third of that or less is actually the cost of the equipment. That's ours.

不。需要提醒的是，對於房主來說，實際上只有三分之一甚至更少的成本是設備成本。那是我們的。

Thank you guys I appreciate all that.

謝謝你們，我很感激這一切。

Yeah, thanks Chris.

是的，謝謝克里斯。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, Tommy.

嘿，湯米。

Dave, I wanted to start on the comment you made about the movement for your resi channel in the quarter, up 15%. We've hit this from a couple of different angles, but I think it will attract a lot of attention today, so worth revisiting here. Are you able to share what the comp was last year? Or any other context that might help explain that comment you made. Thank you.

戴夫，我想先談談你對本季房地產通路走勢的評論，即上漲了 15%。我們已經從幾個不同的角度討論了這個問題，但我認為今天它會引起很多關注，因此值得在這裡重新討論。能分享一下去年的薪資狀況嗎？或任何其他可能有助於解釋您所發表的評論的背景資訊。謝謝。

I don't think I have, my finger tips movement in the fourth quarter of '23, unless. (multiple speakers) I don't have that at my fingertips, Tommy, but the best that we can do is, when you think about resi for the full year, it ended up being up high single digits. I think that we were up around 9% last year. And it's basically to the team's credit, the algorithms they've used to anticipate things like, inventory and movement, orders and the translation into total sales, I could tell you that in my five years of Carrier, our algorithms around being able to anticipate thing, it's far from a perfect science in a very short-cycle business, but they're far better now than they were even just a handful of years ago.

我認為我沒有，我的指尖動作在'23的第四季度，除非。（多位發言者）湯米，我還沒有確定，但我們能做的最好的事情是，當你考慮全年的 resi 時，它最終會上升到個位數。我認為去年我們的成長率約為 9%。這基本上要歸功於團隊，他們使用的演算法可以預測庫存和流動、訂單以及轉化為總銷售額等情況，我可以告訴你，在我為 Carrier 工作的五年裡，我們的演算法能夠預測事物，雖然在一個非常短週期的業務中，它遠非一門完美的科學，但現在它們比幾年前要好得多。

So we're guiding to the HSD for this year. We think that, one thing that people would worry about with a big pre-buy would be that we would be talking down [12], which were not. In fact, I think the first quarter should be up double digits. So I think we feel calibrated between the share gains, the inventory levels, the movement, the orders that we've seen and the sales into our channel.

因此我們今年將指導 HSD。我們認為，人們在進行大規模預購時擔心的一件事就是我們會壓低價格[12]，但事實並非如此。事實上，我認為第一季應該會成長兩位數。因此，我認為我們對份額成長、庫存水準、變動、我們看到的訂單和通路銷售進行了校準。

We've gone out of our way to try to be as judicious and balanced as we can, and we feel good about the guide for this year because basically, that HSD is really driven by mix and price realization. So we think the volume assumptions for the year are fairly balanced.

我們竭盡全力，試圖做到盡可能明智和平衡，我們對今年的指南感到很滿意，因為基本上，HSD 確實是由組合和價格實現驅動的。因此，我們認為今年的銷售假設是相當平衡的。

And Tom, we had that number. The movement in Q4 of '23 was down low teens and then Q4 2024, up mid-teens.

湯姆，我們知道這個號碼。2023 年第四季的變動幅度下降到十幾歲以下，而 2024 年第四季的變動幅度上升到十幾歲中段。

Thank you, Patrick. Dave, just to anticipate another line of questions for all of us today. On your [K-12] commentary for the 10% price. There's been a lot of confusion there just because of things that is what's the base year we're all using and all kinds of noise around this one. But just to give you the opportunity, has anything changed there versus what you expected a quarter a couple quarters ago. And there's also been some questions around one of the larger players in the market potentially getting a little more aggressive on price. But really, the core of the question is what, if anything has changed?

謝謝你，派崔克。戴夫，今天我來預測我們大家要問的另一系列問題。關於您對 [K-12] 10% 價格的評論。由於一些因素，那裡出現了很多混亂，例如我們都在使用什麼基準年，以及圍繞這一基準年的各種噪音。但只是為了給你一個機會，與幾個季度前你預期的相比，有什麼改變嗎？並且還有一些疑問，圍繞市場中較大的一家參與者可能在價格上採取更激進的措施。但實際上，問題的核心是，如果一切真的改變了，那到底是什麼？

Nothing. I mean from our perspective, I think that Steve asked the variation of that as well, Tommy. Look, I've heard the same things listening to some of our peer calls as well in chatter in the marketplace. But what I can tell you is that every year, we've seen, we've been paranoid about one thing or another, and things that have sort of manifested themselves on the price side the way we anticipate.

沒有什麼。我的意思是從我們的角度來看，我認為史蒂夫也問過這個問題的變化，湯米。你看，我在聽一些同行的電話以及市場上的閒聊時也聽到了同樣的事情。但我可以告訴你的是，每年我們都會對這樣或那樣的事情感到偏執，而這些事情總會以我們預期的方式在價格方面表現出來。

And the 10% is fairly straightforward. If you take the list price for a 410A unit, we're pricing a 454B unit in that same category is 10% higher. And then we've said 15 to 20 over two years, which is on top of the base 10%, 2 points to 3 points of base pricing. So we think that we're fairly balanced on a market volume being flat to down a little bit, then a little bit of pricing, a little bit of growth on the furnace side.

這 10% 相當簡單。如果您採用 410A 單元的標價，那麼我們對同一類別的 454B 單元的定價要高出 10%。然後我們說兩年內會增加 15 到 20 個點，也就是在基本 10% 的基礎上增加 2 個點到 3 個點的基本定價。因此，我們認為，我們在市場容量方面是相當平衡的，保持平穩，略有下降，然後價格略有上漲，熔爐方面略有增長。

And then we expect that 10% to stick, and we think that we've tried to even build a little bit of contingency into that 10%. So we feel good about the price sticking exactly what every competitor will do, I don't know, obviously, but we feel good about how we've calibrated our pricing and our pricing with our channel partners.

然後我們預計這 10% 會堅持下去，我們認為我們已經嘗試在這 10% 中建立一點應急措施。因此，我們對價格感到滿意，因為它與每個競爭對手的價格完全一致，我顯然不知道，但我們對我們如何校準我們的定價以及與我們的通路合作夥伴的定價感到滿意。

Thank you. I'll turn it back.

謝謝。我會把它轉回去。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Co.

諾亞·凱耶（Noah Kaye），奧本海默公司

Thanks for taking the questions. You gave some good color on the VCS sales walk by line of business. I wonder if it would be possible to get a little bit better view at sort of country level dynamics or at least how you think about the rest of Europe versus Germany in the outlook, just kind of given the swing factor and policy for turn specifically?

感謝您回答這些問題。您對 VCS 銷售業務線進行了很好的介紹。我想知道，是否有可能對國家層面的動態有更好的了解，或者至少您如何看待歐洲其他國家與德國在前景方面的對比，只是具體考慮到搖擺因素和轉變政策？

Yes. Look, Germany, we clearly have a watch on right now. I think that the good news about the pull-up of the election to February 23 is that one way or another, we're going to get more certainty. And uncertainty has not been our friend in Germany about policy. So having some level of certainty is good. I think, if I may, at a high level in Europe, say that regardless of what's happening country to country because we will watch France, where France and Poland, where there is some suspension of subsidies, which we expect to resume as we get into the summertime.

是的。瞧，德國，我們現在顯然正在密切關注。我認為將選舉日期提前到 2 月 23 日的好消息是，無論如何，我們都將獲得更多的確定性。而在德國，政策上的不確定性一直不是我們的朋友。所以擁有一定程度的確定性是件好事。我想，如果可以的話，站在歐洲高層的角度，我會說，無論各國發生什麼，我們都會關注法國、法國和波蘭，這些國家已經暫停了一些補貼，但我們預計，進入夏季後將會恢復補貼。

We know that there's going to be things that happen in Germany that we have to keep a watch on. I will say at a high level. Number one, the European Union remains committed to the 2030 goals, 55% renewables by 2030. Remember, in 2027, there's going to be the fossil fuel costs across Europe will start to increase then because we see the expanded scope of the emission trading system, which is introduced for CO2 emissions across all European countries, which is going to trigger, I think, a heightened transition from boilers to heat pumps.

我們知道德國將會發生一些我們必須密切關注的事情。我會從高層次來講。第一，歐盟仍致力於實現2030年的目標，即2030年實現55%的再生能源。請記住，到 2027 年，整個歐洲的化石燃料成本將開始增加，因為我們看到排放交易體系的範圍擴大，該體係針對所有歐洲國家的二氧化碳排放而引入，我認為這將引發從鍋爐到熱泵的加速轉變。

There is uncertainty in Germany right now. We did see that increase in subsidy applications and orders in the second half of last year was a little bit slower, I think, in January. But I do think people were trying to get their subsidy applications in before the election. So we'll see if that translates into positivity as we get into 2Q and 3Q.

目前德國存在不確定性。我們確實看到，去年下半年補助申請和訂單的成長速度略有放緩，我認為是在一月。但我確實認為人們試圖在選舉前提交補貼申請。因此，我們將看看在進入第二季和第三季時，這是否會帶來正面影響。

But I do know that with a potentially new government we'll have to see exactly how things play out. What I will tell you at the highest level, when you hear us at our Investor Day as we get into May is that we want to get to a point where we are not talking about elections in Germany or France. We are talking about driving solutions for the customer that are independent of regulation and subsidies.

但我知道，隨著新政府的可能上台，我們必須確切觀察事態如何發展。五月投資者日活動即將舉行，屆時我將以最高級別的身份告訴大家，我們希望不再討論德國或法國的選舉。我們正在討論為客戶提供不受監管和補貼影響的駕駛解決方案。

So if you start looking at complete PV, heat pump, battery digital overlay sales in Europe, which are going to be hearing us talk a lot more about, that's driving solutions for the customer, potentially with bank financing that are independent of subsidies or regulations that is good for the consumer, and it's good for the environment, and it's good for us.

因此，如果你開始關注歐洲的完整光伏、熱泵、電池數位覆蓋銷售，我們將會多談這些，這將為客戶提供驅動解決方案，可能採用獨立於補貼或法規的銀行融資，這對消費者有利，對環境有利，對我們也有利。

So we'll continue to try to influence and monitor policy from country to country. The EU is going to continue to move in this direction. We've seen gas prices going up more recently. That could continue. I don't think the EU wants to be reliant on importing gas from the United States or from Russia. So that electricity to gas ratios start to come down a little bit. And we're going to continue to push solutions that are independent of policy from country to country.

因此，我們將繼續努力影響和監督各國的政策。歐盟將繼續朝著這個方向努力。最近我們發現汽油價格有上漲。這種情況可能會持續下去。我認為歐盟不想依賴從美國或俄羅斯進口天然氣。因此電力與天然氣的比率開始略有下降。我們將繼續推動不受各國政策影響的解決方案。

Thanks, David. I'm glad you mentioned that because you started the call by talking about really this emphasis and the opportunity around the home energy management offerings. It was something you talked about, even in sort of the initial deal announcement. But if you could just give us a little bit more color on what you think this means for your wallet share or your expansion opportunity among the different channels that you already have it would be helpful. Not to steal too much thunder from Investor Day.

謝謝，大衛。我很高興您提到這一點，因為您在通話開始時就談到了這一重點以及家庭能源管理產品的機會。這是您談論的事情，甚至在最初的交易公告中也是如此。但是如果您可以向我們稍微詳細說明一下這對您的錢包份額或您在現有不同管道中的擴展機會意味著什麼，這將會很有幫助。不要搶投資者日的風頭。

Yes. I, look, I think, at the end of the day, when we look at VCS, we'll be the first to say that obviously, not only were we not pleased that last year was down more than we thought, but we dropped it a few times during the course of the year. We've tried to come into this year very calibrated, very conservative.

是的。我認為，到最後，當我們看看 VCS 時，我們首先會說，顯然，我們不僅對去年的跌幅超過我們的預期感到不高興，而且在這一年中我們還多次下跌。我們試圖以非常謹慎、非常保守的態度來對待今年的事情。

Patrick and I are very deeply tied in with Thomas and Chris Sheppard and the team over in Europe. So we've tried to be very balanced and very bottoms up on our assumptions. When we look at VCS overall, we're very, very happy that we are in residential in Europe, not necessarily last year, but overall, this is a great, great market to be.

派崔克和我與湯瑪斯、克里斯·謝潑德以及歐洲的團隊有著非常密切的聯繫。因此，我們試圖在我們的假設上保持非常平衡和自下而上的立場。當我們整體看待 VCS 時，我們非常非常高興我們進入了歐洲住宅市場，雖然不一定是去年，但總的來說，這是一個非常棒的市場。

And the underlying dynamics are exactly what we see in the United States of a highly customized configured differentiated product offering that is very reliant on a differentiated channel. So we like the market. We like the transition to heat pumps. We like the transition to overall system solutions over time, and there's no better company in this space in Europe than Viessmann, hard stop, the most differentiated channel that there is.

而其潛在的動力正是我們在美國看到的，高度客製化配置的差異化產品非常依賴差異化管道。所以我們喜歡這個市場。我們喜歡向熱泵的轉變。我們喜歡隨著時間的推移向整體系統解決方案的轉變，並且在歐洲這個領域沒有比 Viessmann 更好的公司了，它是最具差異化的管道。

So when we start putting some of our commercial HVAC products through that channel or a newly branded Carrier air conditioning product through that channel, our ability to drive revenue synergies, share gain, new product introductions is unparalleled. So we're excited to have them part of the family. They have made Carrier such a better company.

因此，當我們開始透過該管道銷售部分商用 HVAC 產品或新品牌開利空調產品時，我們推動收入協同效應、份額成長和新產品推出的能力是無與倫比的。所以我們很高興他們成為我們家庭的一部分。他們讓開利成為了更好的公司。

And one small example is the Head of Engineering for Viessmann Climate Solutions is leading engineering for all of Carrier with respect to our centers of excellence, and it's making us a more platform company and a better technologically differentiated company across all of Carriers. So we feel balanced for this year. We're going to control the controllables, and we're going to see growth for years to come.

一個小例子是，Viessmann Climate Solutions 的工程主管正在領導整個 Carrier 的工程工作，致力於打造卓越中心，這使我們成為一家更具平台性的公司，並且在所有 Carrier 中成為一家技術差異化更強的公司。因此我們對今年感到平衡。我們將控制可控因素，並將在未來幾年看到成長。

Thanks, Dave. I appreciate it.

謝謝，戴夫。我很感激。

Thank you. So Mike, welcome to Carrier. It's great to have you on board, Patrick. Thank you. And thanks to our 50,000 team members globally. Last year, everyone performed while transforming, and we feel very well positioned for a very strong year in '25, and thank you to our investors as well. Thank you all.

謝謝。那麼 Mike，歡迎加入 Carrier。很高興你能加入我們，派崔克。謝謝。並感謝我們全球 50,000 名團隊成員。去年，每個人都在轉型的過程中表現出色，我們感覺自己已經為2025年的強勁發展做好了充分的準備，也感謝我們的投資者。謝謝大家。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝您的參與。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。