開利公司 (CARR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我想介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Michael Rednor。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有董事長兼執行長 David Gitlin 和財務長 Patrick Goris。

Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs, amortization of acquired intangibles, and certain significant non-recurring items, such as acquisition and divestiture related costs. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

除非另有說明，本公司將討論持續經營業績，不包括重組成本、收購無形資產的攤銷以及某些重大非經常性項目，例如收購和資產剝離相關成本。這些指標和其他非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition, we plan to file certain recast financial statements in connection with our resegmentation which occurred during the first quarter of 2025.

我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有風險和不確定性。Carrier 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（包括我們的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表季度報告）詳細說明了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素。此外，我們計劃提交與 2025 年第一季發生的重新細分相關的某些重編財務報表。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Another strong quarter. My thanks to our 50,000 team members globally for their continued great work.

謝謝，麥克，大家早安。又一個強勁的季度。我感謝我們全球 50,000 名團隊成員的持續出色工作。

As expected, our organic growth picked up in 2Q. We delivered 6% organic growth with exceptional 45% growth in commercial HVAC in the Americas, total company aftermarket growth of 13%, and very strong growth in India, Japan, and the Middle East. We converted the strong organic growth to attractive earnings, expanded adjusted operating margins by 130 basis points, and increased adjusted EPS by 26%. Free cash flow was also strong, with first-half free cash flow of about $1 billion. We remain on track for $3 billion of buybacks this year.

正如預期的那樣，我們的有機成長在第二季度有所回升。我們實現了 6% 的有機成長，其中美洲商用暖通空調 (HVAC) 成長高達 45%，公司售後市場整體成長 13%，印度、日本和中東地區成長非常強勁。我們將強勁的有機成長轉化為可觀的收益，將調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 130 個基點，並將調整後的每股盈餘提高了 26%。自由現金流也很強勁，上半年自由現金流約 10 億美元。我們今年仍有望實現 30 億美元的回購目標。

Turning to slide 4. At our Investor Day on May 19, we laid out our game plan for driving sustained 6% to 8% organic growth by exceeding customer expectations through differentiated products, double-digit aftermarket growth, and unique system solutions.

翻到幻燈片 4。在 5 月 19 日的投資者日上，我們制定了計劃，透過差異化產品、兩位數的售後市場增長和獨特的系統解決方案超越客戶期望，實現持續 6% 至 8% 的有機增長。

On products, we continue to win. With respect to data centers, we are on track to double our revenues to $1 billion this year and are continuing to build our backlog for next year and beyond. Our non-data center commercial HVAC business is expected to grow about 10% this year.

在產品上，我們繼續取勝。就資料中心而言，我們今年的收入預計將翻一番，達到 10 億美元，並將繼續為明年及以後累積訂單。我們的非資料中心商用 HVAC 業務預計今年將成長約 10%。

In the Americas, we have increased both chiller capacity and revenues by more than 2x over the past few years and continue to build our backlog globally. For example, we recently booked a data center order for $45 million for a customer in the Middle East. Our global commercial HVAC sales, which exclude light commercial sales, will be about $6.5 billion in 2025, up close to 20% year over year.

在美洲，過去幾年中我們的冰水機組容量和收入都增加了兩倍多，並且在全球範圍內繼續增加我們的訂單量。例如，我們最近為中東的一位客戶訂了一個價值 4,500 萬美元的資料中心訂單。到 2025 年，我們的全球商用 HVAC 銷售額（不包括輕型商用銷售額）將達到約 65 億美元，年成長近 20%。

New product introductions have been instrumental to our win rate. For example, our new large capacity air-cooled chiller with a proprietary magnetic-bearing centrifugal compressor is both significantly more efficient than our competition and can operate at elevated ambient temperatures, both key performance requirements from our customers.

新產品的推出對我們的成功率起到了重要作用。例如，我們的新型大容量風冷式冷水機組採用專有的磁力軸承離心式壓縮機，效率比我們的競爭對手高得多，並且能夠在較高的環境溫度下運行，這兩者都是我們客戶的關鍵性能要求。

We also continue to leverage Eastman and Toshiba technologies to introduce differentiated offerings in our RLC businesses. In the Americas, we are about to launch a fully integrated air-to-water heat pump that provides heating, cooling, and domestic hot water. This all-in-one solution provides homeowners with improved energy efficiency, frees up valuable indoor square footage, and provides us with market expansion and mix-up.

我們也持續利用伊士曼和東芝的技術在我們的 RLC 業務中推出差異化產品。在美洲，我們即將推出一款完全整合的空氣-水熱泵，可提供暖氣、冷氣和生活熱水。這種一體化解決方案為房主提供了更高的能源效率，釋放了寶貴的室內空間，並為我們提供了市場擴展和混合。

Our aftermarket sales are up 10% through the first half of the year, and we remain on track for our fifth year in a row of double-digit growth. Our number of connected chillers was up 40% in the quarter compared to last year, and over the last three years, we have increased the number of connected chillers by more than 3x, from roughly 20,000 to 63,000.

今年上半年，我們的售後市場銷售額成長了 10%，並且預計將連續第五年實現兩位數成長。與去年相比，本季度我們連接的冷水機組數量增加了 40%，在過去三年中，我們連接的冷水機組數量增加了 3 倍多，從大約 20,000 台增加到 63,000 台。

With respect to Abound, we introduced enhancements to our Abound app that leverage AI to boost operational insights and user efficiency. For our Climate Solutions Transportation business, Lynx subscriptions were up significantly in 2Q and are now close to 200,000.

關於 Abound，我們對 Abound 應用程式進行了增強，利用人工智慧來提高營運洞察力和用戶效率。對於我們的氣候解決方案運輸業務，Lynx 訂閱量在第二季大幅成長，目前已接近 20 萬。

Turning to systems. In North America, our Carrier energy team is making great progress. We are working with several utility companies to initiate field testing at homes in the United States for our fully integrated battery heat pump solution this quarter. We remain on track for market introduction next year.

轉向系統。在北美，我們的開利能源團隊正在取得巨大進步。我們正在與多家公用事業公司合作，於本季在美國家庭啟動我們全整合式電池熱泵解決方案的現場測試。我們仍按計劃於明年推出市場。

We also continue to make significant progress with HEMS in Europe. In 2Q, sales from our Viessmann Systems Prophy Partners showed strong growth, significantly outperforming those of non-Prophy Partners. On the commercial HVAC side, we continue to build out our capabilities for data centers, including QuantumLeap and its integrated CDU offering, and are in active discussions with key customers.

我們在歐洲的 HEMS 領域也持續取得重大進展。在第二季度，我們的 Viessmann Systems Prophy 合作夥伴的銷售額呈現強勁成長，明顯超過非 Prophy 合作夥伴的銷售額。在商用 HVAC 方面，我們繼續建立資料中心的能力，包括 QuantumLeap 及其整合 CDU 產品，並且正在與主要客戶進行積極討論。

Outside of data centers, we recently had an important win with the Shanghai Oriental Hub infrastructure project, which includes a combination of our innovative centrifugal chillers, heat pumps, and our differentiated building management system. By integrating these offerings, we expect to improve our customers' energy efficiency by about 20%. This is another great example of how fully integrated systems add outsized value to our customers and help us drive differentiation and an increased share of wallet. Productivity driven by Carrier excellence is now deeply ingrained in our DNA as reflected in continued strong adjusted operating margin of 130 basis points to 19.1%.

在數據中心之外，我們最近在上海東方樞紐基礎設施項目中取得了重要勝利，該項目包括我們創新的離心式冷水機組、熱泵和差異化的建築管理系統。透過整合這些產品，我們預期客戶的能源效率將提高約 20%。這是另一個很好的例子，說明完全整合的系統如何為我們的客戶增加巨大的價值，並幫助我們推動差異化和增加錢包份額。由營運商卓越驅動的生產力現已深深植根於我們的 DNA 中，這反映在持續強勁的調整後營業利潤率上，從 130 個基點增至 19.1%。

Turning to slide 5 for a brief update on our RLC business in Europe. Though the overall European market since our combination has been more challenging than we expected, other benefits of the combination have exceeded our expectations.

請翻到投影片 5，簡單介紹我們在歐洲的 RLC 業務。雖然我們合併後整個歐洲市場面臨的挑戰比我們預期的要大，但合併後的其他好處卻超出了我們的預期。

Our differentiated strategy around HEMS and hydronics in the Americas are made possible by Viessmann. HEMS leverages Viessmann's battery, integration, and digital expertise. Our global common design around controls and embedded software are both based on Viessmann design standards. We are deploying the underlying technology of Viessmann's One Base digital ecosystem, which connects the company, installers, and homeowners on a single platform to the Americas. Leveraging our respective supply chains is helping us drive more than $200 million of expected cost energies by the end of next year. And our purposeful multi-brand, multi-channel strategy is yielding great results.

我們在美洲圍繞 HEMS 和水力學的差異化策略得益於 Viessmann。HEMS 利用 Viessmann 的電池、整合和數位專業知識。我們圍繞控制和嵌入式軟體的全球通用設計均基於 Viessmann 設計標準。我們正在部署 Viessmann 的 One Base 數位生態系統的底層技術，該技術透過單一平台將公司、安裝人員和房主連接到美洲。利用我們各自的供應鏈，我們將在明年年底前實現預計超過 2 億美元的能源成本節約。我們有目的的多品牌、多通路策略正在取得巨大成果。

Take, for example, the opportunity around air conditioning in Europe, where only 20% of households have air conditioning versus 90% in the United States. Earlier this year, we introduced new offerings through the channel and our air conditioning sales in Europe were up over 25% in 2Q. In terms of 2Q for RLC Europe, our sales were flattish as we expected. Though Germany was down, our heat pump unit sales in Germany were up over 50%. And the ratio of heat pumps to boiler has improved from 30-70 last year to about 50-50.

以歐洲的空調機會為例，歐洲只有 20% 的家庭擁有空調，而美國這一比例為 90%。今年早些時候，我們透過通路推出了新產品，第二季我們在歐洲的空調銷售量成長了 25% 以上。就 RLC 歐洲第二季而言，我們的銷售額如預期般持平。儘管德國的銷量下滑，但我們在德國的熱泵機組銷量卻增加了 50% 以上。熱泵與鍋爐的比例也由去年的30-70提高到50-50左右。

We like this mix-up, and combined with our expected reductions in electricity prices and easy compares with total German heating units that are close to historic lows, the business is well positioned for a return to growth. Our RLC sales in Europe outside of Germany have returned to growth of 3% in the quarter and we expect that to further increase in the second half of this year.

我們喜歡這種組合，再加上我們預期的電價下降，以及與接近歷史低點的德國供暖單位總量的輕鬆比較，該業務已準備好恢復成長。本季度，我們在德國以外歐洲地區的 RLC 銷售額已恢復 3% 的成長，我們預計今年下半年這一數字將進一步成長。

The integration of RLC and commercial HVAC in Europe also presents great sales and cost opportunities. Carrier and Viessmann are both top players in commercial and residential, respectively. The countries where Carrier and Viessmann are both leaders are in many cases different, which provides the opportunity to leverage each other's respective strengths.

歐洲 RLC 與商用 HVAC 的整合也帶來了巨大的銷售和成本機會。開利和菲斯曼分別是商業和住宅領域的頂尖企業。開利和菲斯曼都處於領先地位的國家在許多方面都不同，這為發揮彼此優勢提供了機會。

Slide 6 is a reminder of where we have come over the past few years. Our portfolio is much more focused and simplified with a higher growth profile. Adjusted operating margins have expanded, on average, over 100 basis points per year, and our adjusted EPS has grown at a high-teens CAGR.

幻燈片 6 回顧了我們過去幾年的進展。我們的投資組合更加集中和簡化，具有更高的成長前景。調整後的營業利潤率平均每年擴大 100 個基點以上，調整後的每股盈餘以高十幾個百分點的複合年增長率成長。

Despite a few unforeseen headwinds, the team continues to control the controllables and overdeliver, and we remain on track to deliver close to 20% adjusted EPS growth this year. Our team continues to deliver strong results, and I am confident that we will do so again in the second half of 2025 and beyond.

儘管面臨一些不可預見的阻力，團隊仍繼續控制可控因素並超額完成任務，我們仍有望在今年實現接近 20% 的調整後每股收益成長。我們的團隊繼續取得優異的成績，我相信我們將在 2025 年下半年及以後再次取得這樣的成績。

With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給派崔克。派崔克？

(inaudible) and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 7.

（聽不清楚）大家早安。請翻到幻燈片 7。

We had a strong second quarter. Sales, adjusted operating profit, margins, and adjusted EPS were all ahead of the guide we provided in May. Reported sales were $6.1 billion, with 6% organic sales growth and 1 point of tailwind from currency translation partially offset by 4% net headwinds from acquisitions and divestitures driven by the sale of Commercial Refrigeration. Due to adjusted operating profit of $1.2 billion increased 10% compared to last year driven by organic sales growth and strong productivity, tariffs were net neutral in the quarter.

我們第二季表現強勁。銷售額、調整後的營業利潤、利潤率和調整後的每股收益均高於我們五月提供的預期。報告銷售額為 61 億美元，其中有機銷售額增長 6%，貨幣換算帶來 1 個百分點的順風，但商業製冷業務出售帶來的收購和資產剝離帶來 4% 的淨逆風部分抵消了這一增長。由於調整後的營業利潤為 12 億美元，較去年同期增長 10%，這得益於有機銷售額的增長和生產率的強勁增長，因此本季度的關稅為淨中性。

Adjusted operating margin expanded by 130 basis points compared to last year, about half of which is due to the absence of Commercial Refrigeration, the balance due to productivity, mix-up, and price offset by mix.

調整後的營業利潤率較去年同期擴大了 130 個基點，其中約一半是由於缺乏商用製冷設備，其餘部分是由於生產力、混合和價格被混合抵消。

During the last earnings call, we indicated that we expected about 20% adjusted EPS growth. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.92, an increase of 26% year over year, better than expected due to slightly higher sales and stronger productivity. Year-over-year adjusted EPS growth was driven by organic revenue growth, strong productivity, lower net interest expense, and a lower share count. We have included the year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on slide 18.

在上次財報電話會議上，我們表示預計調整後的每股盈餘將成長約 20%。我們實現的調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元，年成長 26%，由於銷售額略有增加且生產力提高，成長幅度好於預期。調整後每股盈餘年增的動力來自於有機收入成長、生產力強勁、淨利息支出下降以及股票數量減少。我們已將同比調整後的 EPS 橋段包含在第 18 張投影片的附錄中。

Free cash flow of $568 million in the quarter was also stronger than expected.

本季 5.68 億美元的自由現金流也強於預期。

Moving on to the segments and starting on slide 8. The CSA segment had another very strong quarter, with organic sales growth of 14%. Commercial excluding NORESCO led with sales up 45%. Residential sales were up 11%, below our expectations due to lower volume which was down mid-single digits reflecting a late start to the cooling season.

繼續進行片段並從幻燈片 8 開始。CSA 部門又度過了一個非常強勁的季度，有機銷售額成長了 14%。除 NORESCO 外的商業銷售額成長 45%。住宅銷售額成長 11%，低於我們的預期，原因是銷量下降，降溫季節開始較晚，導致銷量下降了中個位數。

Regulatory mix-up and pricing were all as expected. Combined, they were a benefit of mid-teens organic revenue growth. Over 90% of our volume was 454B. Light commercial came in as expected, down about 20%. Adjusted operating margin was 27%, up 210 basis points, driven by strong organic growth and productivity. Overall, the Americas had another outstanding quarter.

監管混亂和定價均在預期之內。綜合起來，它們都是十幾歲的有機收入成長帶來的好處。我們的交易量中超過 90% 是 454B。輕型商用車銷量如預期下降了約 20%。調整後的營業利潤率為 27%，上漲 210 個基點，這得益於強勁的有機成長和生產力。總體而言，美洲地區又度過了一個出色的季度。

Moving to the CSE segment on slide 9. Organic sales growth in CSE overall and residential and light commercial were both about flat. We delivered strong heat pump growth in Germany, the sales benefit of which was offset by a still weak overall German heating market, with total units down about 25% so far this year. Commercial was up low-single digits. Adjusted operating margin was about flat, with cost synergies offset by unfavorable regional and product mix.

移至投影片 9 上的 CSE 部分。CSE 整體以及住宅和輕型商用的有機銷售額成長均基本持平。我們在德國實現了熱泵的強勁成長，但其銷售收益被德國整體供暖市場依然疲軟所抵消，今年迄今總銷量下降了約 25%。商業銷售額僅上漲了個位數。調整後的營業利潤率基本上持平，成本綜效被不利的區域和產品組合所抵銷。

Moving to the CS Asia Pacific segment on slide 10. Organic sales were down 4%. Mid-teens or higher sales growth in Japan, India, and the Middle East was more than offset by continued weakness in residential China and parts of Southeast Asia. Within China, our residential and light commercial business was down around 20% and commercial was up low-single digits. Adjusted operating margin of 15.3% was in line with expectation. The decline year over year was driven by lower volume and the absence of a prior year favorable currency-related item partially offset by productivity.

前往投影片 10 上的 CS 亞太部分。有機銷售額下降了4%。日本、印度和中東地區的中等或更高的銷售成長被中國和東南亞部分地區住宅市場的持續疲軟所抵消。在中國，我們的住宅和輕型商業業務下降了約 20%，而商業業務則成長了個位數。調整後的營業利益率為15.3%，符合預期。年比下降的原因是銷量下降，以及去年有利的貨幣相關項目的缺失，但生產力部分抵消了這一影響。

Moving to CST on slide 11. Organic sales were down 1%. North America Truck & Trailer returned to growth and container strength continued, with sales up mid-single digits. This was more than offset by weakness in Europe and Asia Truck & Trailer. Adjusted operating margin of 17.6% expanded 340 basis points compared to last year largely due to the Commercial Refrigeration exit.

移至投影片 11 上的 CST。有機銷售額下降了 1%。北美卡車和拖車恢復成長，貨櫃繼續保持強勁勢頭，銷售額實現中等個位數成長。歐洲和亞洲卡車及拖車市場的疲軟抵消了這種影響。調整後的營業利潤率為 17.6%，較去年同期擴大了 340 個基點，這主要歸功於商用冷凍業務的退出。

Turning to slide 12. Total company organic orders were down high teens in the quarter as we faced a tough compare versus the prior year, where orders were up 30%. North America resi was down about 60% compared to orders up over 100% a year ago. This was only partially offset by strength in commercial Americas up high teens, light commercial Americas up over 20%, and transportation up high single digits. Excluding CSA resi, total company orders were up mid-single digits. Overall, we ended Q2 with a robust and growing longer cycle backlog in commercial which sets us up well for a strong second half.

翻到第 12 張投影片。本季公司有機訂單總量下降了百分之十幾，與去年同期相比，我們面臨嚴峻的挑戰，去年同期的訂單量增加了 30%。與一年前成長 100% 以上相比，北美住宅訂單下降了約 60%。但這一成長僅被美洲商用車高位成長、美洲輕型商用車成長超過 20% 以及運輸業高點個位數成長所部分抵消。除 CSA resi 外，公司總訂單量增加了中等個位數。總體而言，我們在第二季結束時擁有強勁且不斷增長的商業週期積壓，這為我們下半年的強勁表現奠定了基礎。

Moving on to slide 13 and shifting to full-year guidance. For the total company, we are reaffirming the guide we provided in May. We continue to expect mid-single digits organic sales growth, about 100 basis points of margin expansion, and close to 20% adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint.

轉到第 13 張投影片並轉向全年指導。對於整個公司而言，我們重申五月提供的指導。我們繼續預期有機銷售額將實現中等個位數成長，利潤率將擴大約 100 個基點，調整後每股盈餘將實現中位數近 20% 的成長。

Moving on to slide 14. Each segment's organic growth is unchanged, but there are moving parts within some of the segments as you can see on the slide.

移至投影片 14。每個部分的有機增長保持不變，但正如您在幻燈片上看到的那樣，某些部分內部存在變動。

Moving to profit and cash guidance on slide 15. Total company adjusted operating margin expansion remains unchanged, up about 100 basis points versus the prior year. With respect to tariffs, the net tariff impact in our July guide is zero, just as it was in our May guide. The incremental price to neutralize tariffs is now about $200 million versus $300 million in our prior guide. The margin impact of tariffs is about 20-basis-point headwind versus the prior year.

轉到第 15 張投影片上的利潤和現金指引。公司調整後營業利潤率整體擴張保持不變，較上年增長約 100 個基點。就關稅而言，我們七月指南中的淨關稅影響為零，與五月指南中的情況一樣。中和關稅的增量價格現在約為 2 億美元，而我們之前的指南中為 3 億美元。與前一年相比，關稅對利潤率的影響約為 20 個基點的逆風。

As you can see on the slide, we made some minor adjustments to margin expectations in the segments. We are maintaining our estimate for free cash flow between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion, reflecting roughly 100% conversion, and still expect to repurchase about $3 billion worth of shares in 2025. We are maintaining our adjusted EPS guidance range of $3 to $3.10. Compared to the prior guide, lower sales in CSA, resi, and light commercial are offset by CSA commercial sales, and we are targeting incremental productivity and cost actions to offset unfavorable mix in CSA and CSE. Additional full-year guide items are in the appendix on slide 20.

正如您在幻燈片上看到的，我們對各部分的利潤預期做了一些微調。我們維持自由現金流在 24 億美元至 26 億美元之間的估計，反映約 100% 的轉換率，並且仍預計在 2025 年回購價值約 30 億美元的股票。我們維持調整後每股收益指引區間 3 美元至 3.10 美元。與先前的指引相比，CSA、住宅和輕型商用車的銷售下降被 CSA 商用車的銷售所抵消，我們的目標是提高生產力並採取成本控制措施，以抵消 CSA 和 CSE 的不利產品組合。其他全年指南項目請參閱第 20 張投影片的附錄。

Some color on Q3. We expect Q3 sales of about $6 billion, with mid-single-digit organic growth versus the prior year, and anticipate adjusted operating profit to be flat year over year. In essence, we get a $200 million year-over-year sales benefit from currency translation and tariffs -- tariff-related pricing with no drop through, while the benefit of productivity mix-up and price is offset by unfavorable mix due to lower CSA resi sales. Q3 EPS is expected to be about $0.80. We expect Q4 EPS to be up about 20%, similar to first-half EPS growth, including the benefit of productivity and cost actions.

Q3 上的一些顏色。我們預計第三季銷售額約為 60 億美元，與去年相比將實現中位數個位數有機成長，並預計調整後的營業利潤與去年持平。本質上，我們從貨幣轉換和關稅中獲得了 2 億美元的同比銷售收益——與關稅相關的定價沒有下降，而生產力混合和價格帶來的好處被 CSA 住宅銷售額下降導致的不利組合所抵消。預計第三季每股收益約0.80美元。我們預期第四季每股收益將成長約20%，與上半年每股盈餘增幅相似，這反映了生產力和成本措施帶來的效益。

In summary, we remain on track to have another strong year with mid-single-digits organic growth, close to 20% adjusted EPS growth, and strong free cash flow.

總而言之，我們仍有望迎來又一個強勁的一年，實現中等個位數的有機增長、接近 20% 的調整後每股收益增長以及強勁的自由現金流。

With that, I would like to ask the operator to open up the line for Q&A.

因此，我想請接線員開通問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示） Jeffrey Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Perhaps we could just dive a little bit further into Europe. It looks and feels like maybe things are getting better there, but the margin guide has actually come down. So Dave, can you just unpack that a little bit more? Patrick mentioned mix, but just where you at on the synergy capture in Viessmann, what's going on with the mix, and what do you think about the margins off this level looking into next year?

謝謝。大家早安。也許我們可以更深入地了解歐洲。看起來和感覺上那裡的情況可能正在好轉，但保證金指南實際上已經下降了。那麼戴夫，你能再詳細解釋一下嗎？派崔克提到了組合，但是您對菲斯曼的協同效應了解多少？組合情況如何？您認為明年該水準的利潤率如何？

Yeah. Jeff, let me start with synergies and maybe a bit more on the business, and Patrick can give the breakdown on the margins and second-half margins.

是的。傑夫，讓我先從綜效開始，然後再多談一點業務，派崔克可以給出利潤率和下半年利潤率的細目分類。

Overall, we were flattish in the quarter as we thought we were going to be. We were a little bit stronger outside of Germany than within Germany, and we actually typically have slightly higher margins in Germany. And the other issue is boilers in Germany were coming down a little bit more, and we make pretty good margins, of course, on boilers. And there's a particular type of boiler, a floor standing boiler, where it was down a bit more and our margins there are even a bit higher.

總體而言，本季我們的業績表現平穩，正如我們所料。我們在德國以外的表現比在德國境內略強一些，而且我們在德國的利潤率實際上通常略高一些。另一個問題是德國的鍋爐價格下降了一點，當然，我們在鍋爐上獲得了相當不錯的利潤。還有一種特殊類型的鍋爐，落地式鍋爐，其價格下降得更多一些，而我們的利潤率甚至更高一些。

So there were, within the RLC Europe business, a few mix issues. I will say we feel really good about the cost synergies. We talked about $200 million by the end of next year. We will certainly meet or exceed that. The team's being quite aggressive, not only on supply chain and some of the other indirect, but the team's had to take a lot of very aggressive other discretionary overhead cost actions. They did a lot last year.

因此，RLC 歐洲業務中存在一些混合問題。我想說我們對成本綜效感到非常滿意。我們談到了明年年底前 2 億美元的目標。我們一定會達到或超過這個目標。團隊非常積極，不僅在供應鏈和其他一些間接方面，而且團隊還必須採取許多非常積極的其他可自由支配的間接成本行動。去年他們做了很多事。

I can assure you that Thomas and the team are doing a lot more this year. So they are going to take costs out of the business. And I will tell you that it really positions us for margin drop through as the volume starts to recover as we get into the second half of this year and next year.

我可以向你保證，托馬斯和他的團隊今年會取得更多成就。所以他們要從業務中削減成本。我要告訴你的是，隨著今年下半年和明年銷量開始回升，這確實會導致我們的利潤率下降。

And then Patrick, any more on the margins?

那麼派崔克，還有其他邊緣問題嗎？

I think you covered it. It's really -- margins in Germany a little stronger and sales in Germany were a little weaker, a little stronger outside of Germany.

我想你已經涵蓋它了。事實是──德國的利潤率稍高一些，德國國內的銷售額稍弱一些，而德國以外的銷售額則稍高。

And then maybe we could just delve into price a little bit more. Patrick, you gave us the tariff-related price impact. Can you just share with us kind of what the total price capture was beyond just what you did on tariffs, if there is more, both in the quarter and what you're expecting for the year in aggregate?

然後我們或許可以更深入地探討一下價格。派崔克，您向我們介紹了關稅相關的價格影響。您能否與我們分享一下，除了關稅之外，本季的總價格狀況以及您對全年的整體預期？

If I look at price, including the regular price increase and then the price related to tariffs, in the second quarter, it was about 2 points for the overall company. For the full year, it will also be about 2 points. So it's about 2 points each quarter so far this year, and that excludes the mix-up benefits, Jeff.

如果我看價格，包括常規價格上漲以及與關稅相關的價格，那麼在第二季度，整個公司的漲幅約為 2 個百分點。全年來看，也是2個點左右。因此，今年到目前為止，每個季度的收益大約是 2 分，這還不包括混合收益，傑夫。

Yeah, understood. Okay, thank you. I'll leave it there.

是的，明白了。好的，謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi. Good morning. Maybe -- just wondered if you could flesh out a little bit more those assumptions on US resi and light commercial for sort of the back half and how you see kind of the end market sell-out trends varying there versus the sell-in and the comps. How's the actual end market movement in terms of dynamics on price or repair and remodel? Anything changing in those assumptions?

你好。早安.也許——只是想知道您是否可以進一步詳細說明一下對美國住宅和輕型商用車下半年的假設，以及您如何看待終端市場銷售趨勢與銷售和同類產品之間的差異。就價格或維修改造的動態而言，實際的終端市場走勢如何？這些假設有什麼改變嗎？

Yeah. I would say, Julian, the good news has been that both price and mix are what we thought. On the mix-up, we've been getting the 10%. As we look at the back half, it's almost 100% 454B. If you look at 2Q, price was up in the mid-single-digit range, so that was very positive. The issue we had in 2Q, which we've now extrapolated for the second half, is that the volume was down more than we thought. The volume was down, in the second quarter, mid-single digits, and we thought it was going to be up low single digits.

是的。我想說，朱利安，好消息是價格和組合都跟我們想的一樣。在混亂中，我們已經得到了 10%。當我們看後半部時，它幾乎 100% 都是 454B。如果你看一下第二季度，價格上漲了中等個位數，所以這是非常積極的。我們在第二季度遇到的問題（現在我們推斷下半年也會出現）是交易量下降的幅度比我們想像的要大。第二季度，交易量下降了中個位數，而我們原本以為會上升到低個位數。

So what we've done for the second half of the year is we've now assumed that volume in the second half will be a bit more like down 20%, 25%, and then you get a mix in price of 10% to 15%. So that means net-net, our sales in the second half would be down about 10%. So that's why we reduced, as you saw on Patrick's slide, we reduced the full year for resi to be up single digits; call it first half up 15%, second half down 10%, you get up to up mid-single digits for the year.

因此，我們對下半年所做的預測是，我們現在假設下半年的交易量將下降 20%、25%，而價格將下降 10% 到 15%。所以這意味著我們下半年的銷售額將下降約 10%。所以這就是為什麼我們減少了，正如你在帕特里克的幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們將全年的住宅增長率減少了個位數；假設上半年上漲 15%，下半年下降 10%，那麼全年的增長率將達到中等個位數。

We have not seen -- and we ask a million times to our partners on the channel -- a big switch from repair over replace. We are watching the consumer. Movement was slower in 2Q than we had expected. Movement was a bit light in July, but it started to pick up towards the end of July a bit more because of some of the heat in the country.

我們還沒有看到——並且我們無數次向我們的通路合作夥伴詢問過——從修復到更換的重大轉變。我們正在關註消費者。第二季的行動比我們預期的要慢。7 月的活動稍微少一些，但由於國內氣溫變熱，7 月底活動開始稍微活躍起來。

And then we'll just have to see. We think we've handicapped the year well in the second half with taking volume down as much as we have. But given that inventory levels are a little bit higher, movement's been a little bit slower than we thought, we thought it was prudent to take our volume estimates down for the second half.

然後我們就拭目以待吧。我們認為，透過大幅降低銷量，我們已經為下半年的業績造成了很大影響。但考慮到庫存水準略高，流動速度比我們想像的要慢一些，我們認為下調下半年的銷售預期是明智之舉。

That's helpful. Thank you. And we'll see if a million times is enough to satisfy some of the skeptics.

這很有幫助。謝謝。我們將看看一百萬次是否足以讓一些懷疑論者滿意。

The second question would just be a more fiddly one, perhaps for Patrick, just around that fourth quarter implied. I suppose it's organic sales up mid-single year on year in Q4, so sort of down, I guess, high-single digits sequentially. And then the EPS sequentially in Q4, it's a much smaller decline than sort of normal in inverted commas. Anything to call out there on specific segments or something going on with mix that's a tailwind this Q4 versus historical ones?

第二個問題可能比較棘手，也許對派崔克來說，就在第四季左右暗示。我認為第四季度的有機銷售額同比增長了一半，因此環比下降了高個位數。然後，第四季的每股盈餘環比下降幅度比正常的下降幅度小得多（用引號括起來）。有沒有關於特定細分市場需要注意的事項，或者與歷史情況相比，第四季度的順風情況如何？

Yes. Julian, the way you can think about it is, first of all, our Q4 year-over-year adjusted EPS growth is to be similar to what we've seen in the first half of this year. So about 20% -- about 100% margin expansion we expect in Q4. And Q4 is expected to be our highest organic growth quarter of the year. So we expect actually close to high-single-digits organic growth with both easier comps in Europe, in Asia Pacific, and transportation is expected to return to more attractive growth in Q4 as well.

是的。朱利安，你可以這樣想，首先，我們第四季的年比調整後每股盈餘成長與今年上半年的水平相似。因此，我們預計第四季度利潤率將擴大約 20% 至 100%。預計第四季將成為我們今年有機成長最快的季度。因此，我們預期實際上接近高個位數的有機成長，歐洲、亞太地區的業績都比較容易比較，而且運輸業預計在第四季度也將恢復更具吸引力的成長。

And in Q4, of course, the benefit of that volume mix up in productivity, somewhat offset by the unfavorable mix in resi in the US. And then from a margin perspective, tariffs are slightly negative. And then of course, in Q4, we'll see more of the benefit of the cost actions that we've been implementing versus what we will see in Q3.

當然，在第四季度，產量混合帶來的好處在生產力方面有所提升，但在一定程度上被美國住宅的不利混合所抵消。從利潤率的角度來看，關稅略微為負。當然，在第四季度，與第三季度相比，我們將看到我們實施的成本行動帶來的更多好處。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the detail. Patrick, maybe just unpack a little bit more the 3Q framework. So you said flat margins and it seems like the residential decline is really weighing on the Americas margins. So maybe just unpack the segmental margins. And I think you said $0.80 based on $6 billion of sales and basically 17.5% of operating margins, flattish year over year. I don't get to $0.80 mechanically, Patrick, so just want to make sure that nothing below the line to think about as well.

謝謝。大家早安。謝謝你的詳細說明。派崔克，也許只需稍微解釋一下 3Q 框架。所以你說利潤率持平，但看起來住宅銷售的下降確實對美洲的利潤率造成了壓力。因此也許只需解開分段邊緣即可。我認為您說的是 0.80 美元，基於 60 億美元的銷售額和 17.5% 的營業利潤率，與去年同期持平。派翠克，我無法從機械上達到 0.80 美元，因此我只是想確保沒有低於該線的事情需要考慮。

Okay. So I'll start with the overall company, of course, Q3. And the way you can think about it is, one, we get about a $200 million sales and currency -- $200 million sales tailwind from currency and from tariffs with basically no drop through.

好的。因此，我當然會從整個公司開始，也就是第三季。你可以這樣想，首先，我們獲得了約 2 億美元的銷售額和貨幣——2 億美元的銷售額得益於貨幣和關稅，基本上沒有下降。

In addition to that, you get the benefit of price productivity and mix-up is offset by lower resi sales, because lower resi sales are down about $200 million, $300 million year over year and sequentially in the third quarter. And so the whole benefit of organic growth is basically offset by the unfavorable mix. Then, you assume a 24% effective tax rate in the quarter, and you get to about $0.80 -- $0.80, $0.81. So $6 billion sales, flat operating profit year over year, and a 24% ETR.

除此之外，您還可以獲得價格生產力的好處，而混亂被較低的住宅銷售額所抵消，因為較低的住宅銷售額在第三季度同比下降了約 2 億美元，環比下降了 3 億美元。因此，有機成長帶來的全部好處基本上被不利的組合所抵消。然後，假設本季有效稅率為24%，則實際稅率約為0.80美元至0.80美元，甚至為0.81美元。因此，銷售額為60億美元，營業利潤與去年同期持平，實際稅率為24%。

Okay. That's helpful. And any way you think about the segment margins?

好的。這很有幫助。您對細分市場的利潤有何看法？

The way you can think about segment margins in the third quarter, we expect that CSA will be down about 200 basis points year over year. And the explanation is basically the same. It's the resi mix that's really weighing on the margins over there. For the rest, Europe, we expect it to be flattish year over year. And then Asia will be slightly down and transportation will be up probably 200, 300 basis points reflecting the CCR exit.

從第三季的分部利潤率來看，我們預計 CSA 將年減約 200 個基點。而解釋也基本相同。真正影響那裡利潤的是住宅組合。對於歐洲其他國家，我們預計其同比增速將持平。然後亞洲將略有下降，而運輸將上漲約 200 到 300 個基點，以反映 CCR 的退出。

Okay. Thanks, Patrick.

好的。謝謝，派崔克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey. Good morning, guys. I'm happy to be on my first Carrier call. I get to ask really stupid questions, get away with it for a while, maybe always. But I guess we'd take a step backwards and just look at big picture. I hear you talk about productivity. Will we eventually see productivity on the gross margin line? Or is it more explicitly kind of SG&A productivity that you guys are talking about?

嘿。大家早安。我很高興接到了我的第一個 Carrier 電話。我可以問一些非常愚蠢的問題，但可以暫時逃避懲罰，甚至永遠逃避懲罰。但我想我們應該退一步，只看大局。我聽到您談論生產力。我們最終會在毛利率上看到生產力嗎？或者你們談論的更明確地是一種銷售、一般和行政費用生產力？

It will be both, Scott. And actually, over the last several years, I think we've driven both productivity at the gross margin line. Now, I call it adjusted because we yank out any amortization of intangibles. But productivity has had an impact both on gross margin and on the operating margin.

兩者都是，斯科特。實際上，在過去幾年中，我認為我們已經提高了毛利率和生產力。現在，我稱之為調整，因為我們取消了所有無形資產的攤銷。但生產力對毛利率和營業利益率都有影響。

And we will continue to see it because the biggest driver of productivity for our company is on the cost of goods sold with materials, that alone is a $10 billion-plus bucket. Warehousing, logistics, there is still an enormous amount of opportunity there to drive costs out. So I would actually say, Scott, that the biggest opportunity is on the gross margin line rather than on the call of the SG&A line.

我們將繼續看到這種情況，因為我們公司生產力的最大驅動力是材料銷售成本，僅此一項就高達 100 多億美元。倉儲、物流方面仍存在大量降低成本的機會。因此，史考特，我實際上想說，最大的機會在於毛利率，而不是銷售、一般及行政費用。

Yeah. And Scott, I know that you're familiar with us over many years and many used to think of us back in the day as carriers like a 10% ROS business. This past quarter, we were at 19.1%. In fact, it was our highest profit quarter ever. And it's not only, as Patrick said, on the gross profit line, but it's also it used to be that our G&A, not SG&A, as a percent of sales was north of 9% and now it's about 7%. So I think it's both product costs and then it's a lot of the other indirect costs as well. So it's both.

是的。史考特，我知道你多年來一直熟悉我們，許多人過去都認為我們是像 10% ROS 企業那樣的營運商。上個季度，我們的佔比達到了 19.1%。事實上，這是我們有史以來利潤最高的一個季度。正如帕特里克所說，這不僅是在毛利方面，而且我們的 G&A（不是 SG&A）佔銷售額的百分比過去在 9% 以上，現在約為 7%。所以我認為這既是產品成本，也是許多其他間接成本。所以兩者都有。

And David, do you think about productivity kind of in traditional ways, like at 2% per year or holding headcount flat? Or how do you guys kind of internally think about that and measure it?

大衛，您是否以傳統的方式考慮生產力，例如每年 2% 或保持員工人數不變？或者你們內部是如何思考和衡量這一點的？

Yeah. I think net-net, we think of it as 2% to 3% per year. We think we get more in different buckets that typically we target ourselves in in supply chain closer to 5%. Logistics can be closer to 4%. We can get more like 3% in the factories. And then there's some other things that we move around. But net-net, we usually look at it at 2% to 3% gross productivity.

是的。我認為淨成長率為每年 2% 到 3%。我們認為，我們在不同的領域獲得了更多收益，通常我們在供應鏈中的目標接近 5%。物流可以接近4%。我們可以在工廠獲得 3% 以上的利潤。然後我們也會移動一些其他的東西。但淨額方面，我們通常將其視為2%至3%的總生產力。

Okay. Super helpful. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Best of luck this year, guys.

好的。超有幫助。我會傳達的。謝謝。祝大家今年好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Guys, good morning. Sorry if I missed it, but did you guys just maybe -- can you just describe how the canister issue played out in 2Q, where we stand today, whether that's still a problem on the resi side?

大家早安。抱歉，如果我錯過了，但你們是否能描述一下罐子問題在第二季度是如何發生的，我們目前所處的情況，這是否仍然是住宅方面的問題？

It's no longer an issue for us, Joe. We -- the team really jumped on it. We started precharging a number of units. We were actually doing -- going to tremendous lengths in 2Q to get our customers plenty of canisters. We do not hear canisters in the field being an issue. We pivoted super hard in May and June, and hats off to the business, the operations team working with our channel. It's no longer an issue.

喬，這對我們來說不再是問題了。我們——整個團隊都積極地應對了這個問題。我們開始對一些裝置進行預充電。實際上，我們在第二季度竭盡全力為客戶提供大量的罐子。我們沒有聽說現場的濾毒罐有問題。我們在五月和六月做出了巨大的努力，我們向業務部門、與我們的管道合作的營運團隊表示敬意。這不再是一個問題。

Awesome. And then, Dave, I heard you say that your non-data center business was up, call it, 10%, maybe a little bit better than that in CSA. Can you just double click there? Give us a little bit more color what you're seeing across the non-data center side of the business.

驚人的。然後，戴夫，我聽到你說你的非資料中心業務成長了，大概 10%，可能比 CSA 好一點。你能雙擊那裡嗎？請向我們詳細介紹一下您在非資料中心業務方面看到的情況。

Yeah. Actually, in CSA, the non-data center activity was up 20% in the quarter. If you look overall, we think that for the quarter and for the year, the non-data center activity will be up about 10%. So if you look at CSA, our applied business was up over 100%. We had service business up about 20% and controls in the high-teens. And then if you look at data centers in the Americas, we were up over 300%, with non-data centers up about 20%. So Gaurang and Steve and the team did just a superb job in the quarter.

是的。實際上，在 CSA，非資料中心活動本季成長了 20%。如果從整體來看，我們認為本季和全年非資料中心活動將成長約 10%。如果你看一下 CSA，你會發現我們的應用程式業務成長了 100% 以上。我們的服務業務成長了約 20%，並且控制在十幾歲左右。如果你看看美洲的資料中心，我們的成長超過 300%，非資料中心的成長約為 20%。因此，Gaurang、Steve 和團隊在本季表現非常出色。

And I'll tell you, it's been a combination of building out capacity. We have an entirely new factory in North America, plus we've expanded Charlotte and Charlotte's performing very well. So we've expanded capacity. We've introduced new products. I just mentioned this mag bearing for air-cooled, which is being -- is very attractive to many of our hyperscaler customers. And we've gotten some really creative ways to support our customers in the aftermarket. So all in, both the data center, non-data center, things like some of the mega projects, some of the manufacturing that's been returning to the United States, we've had some really marquee wins that's been happening globally.

我會告訴你，這是容量建構的結合。我們在北美擁有一家全新的工廠，此外我們還擴建了夏洛特工廠，其表現非常好。因此我們擴大了產能。我們推出了新產品。我剛才提到了這種用於風冷的磁浮軸承，它對我們的許多超大規模客戶來說非常有吸引力。我們已經找到了一些非常有創意的方法來支援售後市場的客戶。總而言之，無論是資料中心、非資料中心，或是一些大型項目，一些回歸美國的製造業，我們在全球範圍內都取得了一些真正重大的勝利。

Great. Thanks, guys.

偉大的。謝謝大家。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hey. Good morning. Sorry, I didn't catch the million times. What was that in reference to?

嘿。早安.抱歉，我一百萬次都沒聽懂。那指的是什麼？

That was the question about whether we've seen a trend repair versus replace. And it was --

這個問題是關於我們是否看到了修復而不是替代的趨勢。確實如此--

Got it. Okay, got it. I just heard the number. I didn't quite catch it. There's a lot of earnings this morning.

知道了。好的，明白了。我剛剛聽到這個數字。我沒太聽懂。今天早上有很多收益。

Can you just bridge us to the 20% increase as far as what you're assuming for any headwinds in resi in that particular quarter? It's a really nice bounce back, obviously, and the data center stuff is on fire. So you guys are clearly taking market share there. But what are you assuming for the 4Q in resi?

您能否將增幅定為 20%，以說明您認為該特定季度房地產市場將面臨哪些不利因素？顯然，這是一次非常好的反彈，資料中心業務也很火熱。所以你們顯然已經佔領了那裡的市佔率。但是您對第四季的房地產情況有何預期？

I'm sorry, Steve, the question is for resi, what are we looking at --

抱歉，史蒂夫，問題是針對 resi 的，我們在看什麼--

Yeah, just 4Q. Yeah, and in 4Q because there's a lot of volatility, obviously, with the year-over-year comps. And I totally get the data center stuff that's really strong, but the resi side and maybe light commercial as well.

是的，只是 4Q。是的，第四季的情況顯然與去年同期相比波動很大。我完全了解資料中心的產品非常強大，但住宅方面以及輕型商用方面也可能如此。

Yeah, sure. Resi Q4 sales down about 15% of which volume is about 23%, give or take. And then the rest rounded would be price and regulatory mix.

是的，當然。Resi Q4 銷售額下降約 15%，其中銷量下降約 23%。然後剩下的就是價格和監管組合。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

And then, Steve, on the light commercial side in 4Q, it'll be flattish to last year. We do have the benefit of that being our easiest comp quarter last year, light commercial was down a little over 10%. So we think about flattish for light commercial in the 4Q. And the first half was kind of rugged, of course, on light commercial. But over the last six weeks or so, we have seen some level of encouraging trends in terms of field inventory levels down, orders up.

然後，史蒂夫，第四季度的輕型商用方面將與去年持平。我們確實受益於去年最輕鬆的一個季度，輕型商用車銷量下降了 10% 多一點。因此，我們認為第四季輕型商用車銷售將持平。當然，上半部有點粗糙，有輕微的商業廣告。但在過去六週左右的時間裡，我們看到了現場庫存水準下降、訂單上升等令人鼓舞的趨勢。

Some of the paralysis that we saw on our small business customers has been lifted a bit as we've gotten more tariff certainty, we've seen more demand come back on the small and medium business side. And we've had some very, very nice wins on the retail side, some of the fast food, especially the higher-end fast food, we've done really nice job with share. So we do see second half down probably mid-single digits, probably down about 10% in 3Q, flattish in 4Q.

隨著我們獲得更多的關稅確定性，我們看到小型企業客戶面臨的一些癱瘓已經緩解，我們看到中小企業方面的需求有所回升。我們在零售方面取得了一些非常非常好的勝利，一些快餐，特別是高端快餐，我們在市場份額方面做得非常好。因此，我們確實看到下半年可能會下降中等個位數，第三季可能會下降約 10％，第四季則持平。

Yes, super easy comps. So you're basically saying that the resi stuff is pretty consistent year over year, 3Q and 4Q, and then the RLC, the light commercial makes a lot of sense because of the comps, obviously.

是的，超簡單的組合。所以你基本上是說，住宅業務與去年同期相比，第三季和第四季都相當一致，而 RLC 和輕型商用顯然因為可比性而顯得有意義。

Yeah. And remember, resi has a very tough comp to last year because we were up about 35%. And volume was up about 30% in the fourth quarter last year.

是的。請記住，Resi 與去年相比表現非常糟糕，因為我們的股價上漲了約 35%。去年第四季交易量成長了約 30%。

Yeah, totally. Okay, thanks a lot for the details. And we appreciate how you guys laid it out in the slides. It makes it very easy to consume. So thanks for that.

是的，完全是。好的，非常感謝您的詳細資訊。我們很欣賞你們在幻燈片中對此的闡述。這使得它非常容易被食用。所以謝謝你。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安德魯‧卡普洛維茲 (Andrew Kaplowitz)。

Good morning, everyone. Dave, can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in Climate Solutions Asia Pacific. You lowered China a bit in terms of your outlook for the year, but the balance of the segment is up. You didn't change the overall growth. Is that more -- is that kind of a new normal for the segment as we think about it going forward? Just an update there.

大家早安。戴夫，您能否再多談談您在亞太氣候解決方案方面看到的情況。就今年的展望而言，您稍微降低了對中國市場的預期，但該市場的平衡卻有所上升。你沒有改變整體成長。這是否更——從我們未來的想法來看，這是否是該領域的新常態？只是那裡的更新。

Well, I think what is encouraging in Asia is that Michael and the team have done a really great job looking at growth at places like Japan was typically in the past, no growth. We were up high-teens in the quarter. India was up just under 30%. The Middle East was up in the mid-teens.

嗯，我認為亞洲令人鼓舞的是，麥可和他的團隊在觀察日本等地的成長方面做得非常出色，而過去日本通常沒有成長。本季我們的成長率達到了十幾歲。印度的漲幅略低於30%。中東地區的漲幅達到十幾歲。

So I think that because China's been softer than we thought, and it's been softer on a more sustained period than we thought, I think the team's done a superb job. And then there's some countries in the first half that were a little bit surprisingly weaker, take Thailand, and that'll recover. That was partly some performance things, partly some market things. So we'll recover that in the second half.

所以我認為，由於中國的表現比我們想像的要弱，而且比我們想像的持續的時間更長，所以我認為團隊做得非常好。還有一些國家在上半年經濟表現出乎意料地疲軟，例如泰國，但這些國家將會復甦。這部分是一些性能方面的事情，部分是一些市場方面的事情。所以我們會在下半場恢復過來。

And then when we think about China, we do feel good about commercial in China. We're poised for some pretty good growth. The backlog's been growing. We've had some really nice wins. The team's doing a nice job to kind of build up that backlog on the commercial HVAC business in China.

當我們想到中國時，我們確實對中國的商業感到滿意。我們已準備好實現相當不錯的成長。積壓的案件不斷增加。我們取得了一些非常好的勝利。該團隊在中國商用暖通空調業務方面做得很好，並累積了一定數量的訂單。

Resi has been tough for a while now. There's too much inventory in the channel still on the retail side on resi in China. So we've been going hard after the project work. And I do think that we're going to start to recover on the retail side, but no time soon. I think 3Q will still be down a bit. So we need the project work in China and we need the commercial HVAC business in China. And then all these other opportunities, I think it's just a golden opportunity for us to go win in places like India and the Middle East.

雷西 (Resi) 現在已經很艱難了。中國零售通路仍有過多庫存。所以我們一直在努力完成專案工作。我確實認為零售業將會開始復甦，但不會很快。我認為第三季仍會略有下降。因此，我們需要在中國開展專案工作，我們需要在中國開展商業暖通空調業務。所有這些其他的機會，我認為對我們來說都是在印度和中東等地取得勝利的黃金機會。

Very helpful. And then David, Patrick, just following up on US resi for a second. Are you seeing any share movements across the major OEMs? And then Dave, I think there's been some talk about having a rebate in terms of pricing. How are you thinking about the stickiness of pricing in the second half of the '25?

非常有幫助。然後是戴維、派崔克，我們稍微跟進美國住宅的狀況。您是否看到主要 OEM 的份額有所變動？然後戴夫，我認為有人談論過在定價方面給予折扣。您如何看待 25 年下半年的定價黏性？

We've been good on pricing. When we look at pricing, in the first half, it was up mid-single digits. We think that continues into Q3. It's kind of in that 5% range on price, maybe a bit softer in Q4, closer to the high low-single digits is what we're forecasting for Q4. But it's kind of in that range. We're not doing a lot of rebating. And the 10% on the mix side with 454B has been sticking.

我們的定價一直都很好。當我們查看價格時，上半年價格上漲了中等個位數。我們認為這種情況將持續到第三季。價格漲幅大概在 5% 左右，第四季可能會稍微弱一些，接近高低個位數，這是我們對第四季的預測。但它確實處於那個範圍內。我們不會做太多的回扣。而 454B 混合方面的 10% 一直保持不變。

When we look at share, I can't speak for the other OEMs, but we think that we're about flattish. We are very confident we haven't lost any share. When volume was a little bit lower in 2Q than what we expected, we were very paranoid. We've looked at every single distributor. We've talked to many of our dealer partners to see, is there something happening? And I just think that between the later cooling season -- start to the cooling season and some watch around the consumer, just a bit softer. I think we'll take a little bit of medicine in the second half of this year on the volume side. But the team's performed incredibly well with all of the transitions, all the canister activity. And I think we're doing very well on the share side overall.

當我們看份額時，我不能代表其他 OEM 發言，但我們認為我們的份額大致持平。我們非常有信心，我們沒有損失任何份額。當第二季的交易量比我們預期的略低時，我們非常擔心。我們已經調查了每一個分銷商。我們已經與許多經銷商合作夥伴進行了交談，看看是否發生了什麼？我只是認為，在後期冷卻季節之間——在製冷季節開始時，以及一些消費者關注的範圍內，情況會稍微緩和一些。我認為今年下半年我們會在銷售方面採取一些措施。但該團隊在所有轉變、所有罐式活動中表現得非常出色。我認為我們在整體共享方面做得非常好。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的色彩。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. It's a sign of the times now that you divide your commercial HVAC business between data center and non-data center. So if we could just put the spotlight on the non-data center part of your business, you shouted out some mega project wins. But just take us through the verticals, K-12, anything stand out, positive or negative, among the verticals.

謝謝。大家早安。現在，將商業 HVAC 業務劃分為資料中心和非資料中心是時代的標誌。因此，如果我們能把焦點放在您業務的非資料中心部分，您就會大聲宣布一些大型專案的勝利。但是，只要讓我們看一下垂直行業，從 K-12 開始，在垂直行業中，任何事物都是突出的，無論是積極的還是消極的。

Yeah. On the negative side, I would say K-12 all year has been just softer than we thought it was going to be, Deane. I think it's a combination of things, some of the DOGE activity, some of the uncertainty around even the local funding, so I don't think that's -- there's plenty of state bond funding out there. We've talked about things like $76 billion. So we think that comes back, but that's been softer.

是的。從消極的一面來看，我想說，全年的 K-12 表現比我們想像的要差，迪恩。我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果，包括 DOGE 活動、甚至當地融資的一些不確定性，因此我認為，市面上並沒有大量的國家債券融資。我們討論過 760 億美元之類的事情。因此我們認為，這種情況會有所恢復，但會變得更加溫和。

And now higher ed, that's been a nice tailwind for us for a while and a little bit softer in 2Q than we thought. Usually, every quarter, we say commercial, real estate, soft. We actually, bizarrely enough, saw it pick up a tiny bit in 2Q, but I don't think that makes a trend. That's still clearly a watch item.

現在，高等教育對我們來說一直是一個很好的順風，但第二季的情況比我們想像的要弱一些。通常，每個季度，我們都會說商業、房地產、軟。事實上，奇怪的是，我們看到它在第二季度略有回升，但我不認為這是一種趨勢。這顯然仍然是一件手錶。

On the positive side, not only is the outsized growth we've had on data centers, very pleased there, but a lot of the mega projects have been good, not only in the United States, but globally. I mentioned that Shanghai Oriental Hub was a great systems win. So when we talk systems, it's not just QuantumLeap for data centers; it's a lot of new muscles we put in the system around selling systems globally. So some really good systems win in Europe and in Asia.

從積極的一面來看，我們不僅在資料中心方面取得了巨大的成長，而且許多大型專案也取得了良好的效果，不僅在美國，而且在全球範圍內。我提到上海東方樞紐是一個偉大的系統勝利。因此，當我們談論系統時，它不僅僅是資料中心的 QuantumLeap；它還包括我們在全球銷售系統時為系統注入的許多新力量。因此，一些真正優秀的系統在歐洲和亞洲取得了成功。

Healthcare has been very positive as well. And then even though warehouse, I think, overall is weak and even retail, we've on both the commercial and the light commercial side have done very well in warehouse and especially on the light commercial side on retail. We've had some really outsized wins there.

醫療保健也表現得非常積極。儘管我認為倉庫業務總體上比較弱，甚至零售業務也是如此，但我們在商業和輕型商業方面都做得很好，尤其是在倉庫業務和零售業務的輕型商業方面。我們在那裡取得了一些真正巨大的勝利。

Good update there. Thank you. And then just could you give us an update on services in the quarter and expectations for the year?

那裡有很好的更新。謝謝。那麼您能否向我們介紹本季的服務更新情況以及全年的預期？

Yeah. In the quarter, it was up 13%. We're up 10% year to date. We fully expect to be up double digits again this year. Of course, our mantra double digit forever. So we -- this will be our fifth year in a row. I would say the underlying metrics look good. I mentioned that Ed and the team on the refrigeration on the transport side have done well with subscriptions on Lynx. Abound is gaining more traction. Number of connected devices on the HVAC chiller side up to 63,000. Service coverage, very good.

是的。本季度，該數字上漲了 13%。今年迄今，我們的利潤已上漲 10%。我們完全預計今年將再次實現兩位數的成長。當然，我們的口頭禪永遠是兩位數。所以——這將是我們連續第五年。我想說底層指標看起來不錯。我提到過，Ed 和運輸方面的冷凍團隊在 Lynx 的訂閱方面做得很好。Abound 正獲得越來越多的關注。HVAC 冷卻器側連接設備數量高達 63,000 個。服務覆蓋率很廣，非常好。

I'll tell you, one of the big things that's really a top priority for us is making sure that with these data center wins, we're signing the right type of long-term agreements with our hyperscaler and colo customers to make sure that we support them for many, many years to come. And that's a key focus areas overall. So the team has done overall very well in 2Q on aftermarket, and we're pretty confident that'll continue going through the year.

我告訴你，對我們來說最重要的事情之一是確保憑藉這些資料中心的勝利，我們與超大規模和託管客戶簽署正確類型的長期協議，以確保我們在未來的許多年裡為他們提供支援。總體而言，這是一個重點關注的領域。因此，團隊在第二季的售後市場表現整體非常出色，我們非常有信心這種表現將持續到今年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Hi, guys. Good morning. Just maybe a question on transportation. You're saying that North America returned to growth. Can you just talk what you're seeing in North American refi market because the truck volumes continue to remain weak, but maybe that market has found the bottom? Just more granularity there. Thank you.

嗨，大家好。早安.也許只是一個關於交通的問題。您說的是北美恢復了成長。您能否談談您對北美再融資市場的看法，因為卡車銷量持續疲軟，但也許市場已經觸底？只是粒度更細一些。謝謝。

Yeah, it's hard to pick the bottom in NATT. It was nice to see a few percent growth, Andrew, in 2Q. As we go into the back half, of course, we have easy comps. Last 3Q was down about 15%, close to 30% in 4Q. So I do think we have the benefit of easy comps in the back half. We did see -- we were starting to feel good. We got to watch orders in NATT. We've seen some recent recovery a little bit in ETT and our European Truck Trailer business. Container is poised for an outperformance this year.

是的，在 NATT 中很難選出底部。安德魯，很高興看到第二季度出現百分之幾的成長。當我們進入後半段時，我們當然會輕鬆獲勝。去年第三季下降了約 15%，第四季下降了近 30%。所以我確實認為我們在後半段擁有輕鬆競爭的優勢。我們確實看到——我們開始感覺良好。我們必須觀察 NATT 中的訂單。我們看到 ETT 和歐洲卡車拖車業務最近有所復甦。貨櫃業今年可望取得優異表現。

So NATT is particularly short cycle. So we'll have to see. We have some good-sized growth numbers in there in the second half. And if for some reason they don't materialize, I think we have enough in businesses like Sensitech and Container to cover it. But we do see the team performing very well, and we're poised for some growth here in NATT in the second half. I think that we needed some level of stability, I think, on the tariff side for our customers. And the more clarity that's been coming in, I think, is helping our customers.

所以NATT的周期特別短。所以我們得拭目以待。下半年我們取得了不錯的成長數據。如果它們因為某些原因未能實現，我認為我們在 Sensitech 和 Container 等業務上有足夠的資金來彌補。但我們確實看到球隊表現非常出色，我們準備在下半年的 NATT 中取得一些成長。我認為我們需要在關稅方面為客戶提供一定程度的穩定性。我認為，越來越清晰的訊息對我們的客戶更有幫助。

That's great to hear. Thank you. And just a question on resi. You were still constructive, I think, in May. And the May weather, if you look at the temperature, was weaker. And June was actually quite warm. And what we hear from the channel is you guys are as close to your distributors as anyone from a very positive standpoint.

聽到這個消息真是太好了。謝謝。這只是關於 resi 的一個問題。我認為，五月你仍然很有建設性。如果你看一下溫度，你會發現五月的天氣比較寒冷。六月其實相當溫暖。我們從通路上聽到的消息是，從非常正面的角度來看，你們與經銷商的關係非常密切。

So can you just tell us when did you figure that North American resi was going to be weaker? And is it the inventory that was the red flag? Just maybe just walk us through what happened. Thanks so much.

那你能告訴我們你什麼時候發現北美房地產市場將會走弱嗎？庫存是危險訊號嗎？只是跟我們簡單講一下發生了什麼事。非常感謝。

Yeah. The bottom line, Andrew, is that May movement was just a lot softer than we thought. We had a rule we would do our best never to talk about the weather. Obviously, it's a bit of a reality when you're dealing with the kind of business that we're in. But cooling degree days was softer in the last six weeks of the quarter than usual.

是的。安德魯，底線是，五月的動向比我們想像的要溫和得多。我們有一條規則，我們會盡量不談天氣。顯然，當你處理我們所從事的業務時，這有點現實。但本季最後六週的降溫度日數比往常少。

But having said that, the weather is the weather. But what really happened was movement was softer in June in particular. And what that did is that built up a bit more inventory in the channel than we'd like. So what we did is we thought about the second half as we tried to take a look at some of the movement trends that we saw in June and then assume that continues for July and August.

但話雖如此，天氣就是天氣。但實際情況是，6 月的活動尤其疲軟。這樣做的結果是，通路中累積的庫存比我們預期的多一些。因此，我們所做的就是思考下半年的情況，試著看看我們在六月看到的一些運動趨勢，然後假設這種趨勢將在七月和八月持續下去。

So we'll have to see what ends up happening. And we also have been very purposeful in our projections to take inventory levels down to where they were last year when we end 3Q and where we end 4Q. So in our sales guidance, we assume that we get inventory levels back into balance.

所以我們必須看看最終會發生什麼。我們也非常有目的地進行預測，將庫存水準在第三季末和第四季末降至去年的水準。因此，在我們的銷售指導中，我們假設庫存水準恢復平衡。

Really appreciate the answer. Thanks so much.

非常感謝您的回答。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Hi. Good morning. Could you talk about back-half-of-the-year margin expectations in Europe? Not sure if we should be thinking kind of around 11%, but any kind of variation from Q3 to Q4? And then just how that bridges from kind of a seasonality and volume perspective versus mix or other factors.

你好。早安.能談談歐洲下半年的利潤預期嗎？不確定我們是否應該考慮 11% 左右，但從第三季到第四季有任何變化嗎？然後從季節性和數量的角度與組合或其他因素進行比較。

Yes. Thank you for your question. First of all, within Europe, residential is about 80% of our total business. And historically, the second half is stronger than the first half of the year, so seasonality related to the heating season. And so a sales pickup of 10%, 20% is typical second half of the year versus the first half of the year.

是的。感謝您的提問。首先，在歐洲，住宅業務約占我們總業務的80%。從歷史上看，下半年的表現比上半年要強勁，因此季節性與供暖季節有關。因此，與上半年相比，下半年的銷售額通常會成長 10% 至 20%。

In terms of margin expectations, you're right. In the second half of the year, it will be about 11%, 11.5% with the strongest margin expansion by far in Q4. We had a very weak Q4 margin last year in Europe. I mentioned earlier, I think, on this call, we expect Q3 to be about maybe 10%, 10.5% margins, flattish year over year, but growing to about 12% in Q4, reflecting stronger sales, but also more of the productivity actions that we've been implementing all year. As you probably know, it takes more time to implement these in Europe. So as we proceed through the year, we'll see more of these productivity actions take effect.

就利潤預期而言，你是對的。下半年利潤率將在11%、11.5%左右，第四季的利潤率成長將是迄今為止最大的。去年我們在歐洲的第四季利潤率非常低。我之前提到過，我想，在這次電話會議上，我們預計第三季的利潤率約為 10%、10.5%，與去年同期持平，但第四季將成長至約 12%，這不僅反映了更強勁的銷售，也反映了我們全年一直在實施的更多生產力行動。您可能知道，在歐洲實施這些措施需要更多時間。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到更多此類生產力行動取得成效。

That's helpful color. Thank you. And then just with continued focus on repair versus replace, any high-level kind of color on the economics of that. I think there's a lot of focus on the impact of kind of mix-up and that price and then tariff price and the normal price and whether that would compel a mix shift toward more repair, but not sure that replace economics as well. And so just in terms of when a consumer is thinking about those high level, anything behind the economics that would be kind of the rationale for why we're not seeing some of that shift?

這是很有幫助的顏色。謝謝。然後繼續關注修復與更換，任何高層次的色彩都與其經濟性有關。我認為人們非常關注這種混合的影響，以及價格、關稅價格和正常價格，以及這是否會迫使混合轉向更多的維修，但不確定這是否也能取代經濟學。那麼，當消費者考慮這些高水準因素時，經濟因素背後是否存在某種原因可以解釋為什麼我們沒有看到這種轉變？

I think part of it is the refrigerant shift. I think as people are thinking long term, they know that we're fundamentally going to be switching to the 454B which, over time, it's going to be harder to predict the pricing on the 410A to support it. So I think it's a natural move that -- it's fundamentally a replacement business. Your AC fails, you're, I think, inclined to rip the band aid once and replace the unit rather than try to limp along with a compressor change or something else, knowing that you're going to have to support it with perhaps more expensive refrigerant.

我認為部分原因是冷媒的變化。我認為，當人們考慮長遠時，他們知道我們將從根本上轉向 454B，隨著時間的推移，將更難預測 410A 的定價來支持它。所以我認為這是一個自然的舉措——從根本上來說，這是一項替代業務。如果您的空調出現故障，我想，您傾向於立即更換整個設備，而不是嘗試更換壓縮機或其他設備，因為您知道您可能需要使用更昂貴的冷媒來支援它。

I think if you look overall, we haven't seen that -- we don't feel that we are not priced inappropriately, but differently. We feel that we're priced appropriately, both on the 454B and the base price increases, to offset some of the either inflationary or tariff headwind that we've seen. And we don't think that's been in any way a share issue. And we don't think not only have we not seen more repair over replace. We haven't seen a big mix down from our very specific entry tier level versus the one up from that. It's something we watch carefully.

我認為，如果從整體來看，我們並沒有看到這種情況——我們並不認為我們的定價不合理，只是有所不同。我們認為，454B 和基本價格上漲的定價都是合理的，可以抵消我們所看到的部分通貨膨脹或關稅逆風。我們認為這根本不是一個股票問題。我們認為，修復量不僅沒有超過更換量。我們還沒有看到從我們非常具體的入門級水平到更高水平的大幅下降。我們正在密切關注此事。

So we just think that probably a bit of a later start to the cooling season. We got to watch the consumer interest rates have continued to be high, which put a damper on residential new construction and also people moving to buy new homes which, of course, we benefit from when people move from one home to another. So all of that has resulted in a bit slower movement, which we've assumed continues into the second half. And then we'll have to see.

因此我們認為，冷卻季節可能會稍微晚一點開始。我們看到消費者利率持續居高不下，這抑制了住宅新建設，也抑制了人們購買新房，當然，當人們從一個家搬到另一個家時，我們會從中受益。所以所有這些都導致了行動速度稍微放緩，我們預計這種情況會持續到下半年。然後我們就拭目以待。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I want to follow up on the commentary on the softer resi volumes in Q2. I guess from your perspective, do you think that was just softer end demand? Was it maybe some more downstream inventory than expected, or did that come out faster? I guess any view on that and how do you kind of separate between those two drivers when you look at the data?

謝謝。我想跟進關於第二季度房地產交易量疲軟的評論。我想從您的角度來看，您是否認為這只是終端需求疲軟？是下游庫存比預期的多，還是庫存出來得更快？我想問一下對此有什麼看法？當您查看數據時，您如何區分這兩個驅動因素？

They overlap a bit. I think we started the quarter with a bit of elevated inventory levels. And then -- so you obviously need movement to pick up to support the continued sales growth. And movement was just much softer in June than we had forecast for a bunch of the reasons we were just talking about, interest rates, consumer, perhaps weather to some extent.

它們有一點重疊。我認為本季初我們的庫存水準略有上升。然後——所以你顯然需要採取行動來支持持續的銷售成長。而 6 月的經濟活動比我們預測的要疲軟許多，原因有很多，例如我們剛才談到的利率、消費者，或許還有某種程度上的天氣因素。

So it was what it was. I think that if you look at resi over these last few years, the team has done simply a phenomenal job picking up share. We're close to a third of the market. We've not only picked up share, we've maintained it and we've drove nice margins. We think that there's going to be some comp issues in the second half with respect to movement. We got to get inventory levels down a bit. And then we'll have to see what happens in the second half. But a couple of watch items that we saw in 2Q, but overall, the team's performing well. And the good news is mix and price have been exactly what we thought.

事實就是這樣。我認為，如果你看一下過去幾年的 resi，你會發現球隊在提升市場份額方面做得非常出色。我們佔據了接近三分之一的市佔率。我們不僅增加了市場份額，還保持了市場份額，並且獲得了可觀的利潤。我們認為下半年在運動方面會出現一些問題。我們必須稍微降低庫存水準。然後我們看看下半場會發生什麼。但我們在第二季度看到了一些值得關注的問題，但總體而言，團隊表現良好。好消息是，產品組合和價格正如我們所想。

No. Yeah, thank you. Certainly appreciate that, and kind of can see that strength that has come through the past couple of years.

不。是的，謝謝。我當然很感激這一點，並且可以看到過去幾年來所累積的力量。

And then just, I guess, following up on that, obviously, the volume declines for resi into the back half, the comps are incredibly difficult. So is this just a function of kind of sluggish demand and very difficult comps? Or do you think the channel will kind of continue to pull down inventory in the back half of the year? Or do you think it ended Q2 at a pretty balanced place? Thank you.

然後，我想，顯然，後半部的房地產交易量會下降，比較起來非常困難。那麼，這僅僅是需求低迷和競爭非常激烈的結果嗎？或者您認為通路會在下半年繼續減少庫存？或者您認為第二季結束時情況相當平衡？謝謝。

Yeah. I think we are going to -- we're going to consciously pull down inventory in the second half of the year. They're a bit higher than we'd like. And we are very, very purposeful every month, every quarter to try to get inventory levels in balance to what they -- to what we think they should be. So there's never -- we do our best to make sure there's never more in the channel than we think the channel needs.

是的。我認為我們將在下半年有意識地減少庫存。它們比我們希望的要高一點。我們每個月、每季都會非常有目的地嘗試讓庫存水準達到我們認為應該的平衡水準。因此，我們永遠不會——我們會盡力確保管道中的內容不會超過我們認為管道所需的內容。

So we work very, very closely hand in glove with our distribution partners, not only the absolute levels, but the mix that they need. And we don't want to give them -- we don't want to ship any more than we should to make sure the inventory levels stay in balance. And we're going to try to do everything we can to get end of 3Q in balance to where it was last year.

因此，我們與分銷合作夥伴密切合作，不僅要達到絕對水平，還要達到他們所需的組合。我們不想給他們——我們不想運送超過我們應該運送的數量，以確保庫存水準保持平衡。我們將竭盡全力使第三季末的業績與去年同期持平。

Thank you, Dave. Appreciate that.

謝謝你，戴夫。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的史蒂芬·福爾克曼。

Great. Good morning. Thank you for fitting me in. I'm curious, sort of longer term, where are you relative to capacity and capacity additions for the data center business or for the large applied-type business?

偉大的。早安.謝謝你幫我安排。我很好奇，從長遠來看，您在資料中心業務或大型應用型業務的容量和容量增加方面處於什麼位置？

Yeah. We are -- Steve, we're in good shape. I'd tell you that one of the nice things when we talk to our hyperscaler customers is they are looking for capacity availability and on a global scale. And we have all of that. We have a brand new facility that we repurposed. It used to do controls, and now it's doing 100%, both air-cooled and water-cooled chillers. To support North America, we've expanded our Charlotte facility by about 40%. So when you look at North America, we've more than doubled our capacity just over these last few years.

是的。我們——史蒂夫，我們狀態很好。我想告訴你，當我們與超大規模客戶交談時，其中一件好事就是他們正在尋找全球範圍內的容量可用性。而我們擁有這一切。我們擁有一個經過重新利用的全新設施。它以前是做控制的，現在 100% 都是做控制的，包括風冷式和水冷式冷水機組。為了支持北美，我們將夏洛特工廠擴大了約 40%。所以，當你看北美時，你會發現，過去幾年我們的產能增加了一倍以上。

And then you see that reflected in the applied growth that we've had. We were actually constraining growth even for non-data center activity to just try to -- because we were a little bit limited last year and the year before, that's no longer an issue. We're telling our teams, get out there, go win, go win data centers, go win the others, because we have the capacity.

然後你會看到這反映在我們所實現的應用程式成長中。實際上，我們甚至試圖限制非資料中心活動的成長——因為去年和前年我們受到了一些限制，但這不再是問題了。我們告訴我們的團隊，走出去，去贏得勝利，去贏得資料中心，去贏得其他勝利，因為我們有能力。

And that's true on a global scale as well. We have China, we have India, we have France. We're looking at some really creative and exciting things in places like Saudi Arabia. So we have plenty of capacity now globally. And it's good because the teams out there with the new product introductions, they're out there winning. And there's a lot of excitement amongst our customer base right now.

在全球範圍內也是如此。我們有中國，有印度，有法國。我們正在沙烏地阿拉伯等地尋找一些真正富有創意且令人興奮的事物。因此，我們現在在全球範圍內擁有充足的產能。這是件好事，因為這些團隊推出了新產品，並且取得了勝利。目前我們的客戶群非常興奮。

Great. That's encouraging. Thank you.

偉大的。這令人鼓舞。謝謝。

And then maybe a longer-term question, Dave, but I'm curious around how you're thinking about your longer-term 6% to 8% growth target. What are the key sort of factors that will make that happen or not happen in 2026? I'm trying to figure out how much of that is kind of under your control and how much you need cooperation from the markets.

然後也許是一個長期問題，戴夫，但我很好奇你是如何看待 6% 到 8% 的長期成長目標的。哪些關鍵因素將決定 2026 年這一目標的實現或失敗？我試圖弄清楚其中有多少是在你的控制範圍內，以及你需要多少市場合作。

Well, if you look at the algorithm that we laid out at our Investor Day, we did say that there was always a point or two from the market. And then we have this three-pronged strategy, which is products, aftermarket, and systems. Driving double digit forever is going to give you lift there.

好吧，如果你看一下我們在投資者日列出的演算法，我們確實說過市場總是會有一兩個點。然後我們有三管齊下的策略，即產品、售後市場和系統。永遠保持兩位數的駕駛速度將為你帶來提升。

Systems, we said, is going to be a point or two. And we're seeing really nice progress on things like HEMS in Europe, and we'll start getting our first revenues next year from HEMS in the United States. When we talk systems on the commercial side, it's not only QuantumLeap, where there's a fair amount of activity picking up for this combined liquid cooling, traditional cooling. But also, we're seeing it in non-data center activity, working more as one Carrier, combining our BMS and traditional chillers as well. So we see systems picking up and then products.

我們說，系統將會成為一兩點。我們在歐洲的 HEMS 等領域取得了非常好的進展，明年我們將從美國的 HEMS 領域獲得第一筆收入。當我們談論商業方面的系統時，不僅僅是 QuantumLeap，還有相當多的活動正在進行這種組合液體冷卻和傳統冷卻。而且，我們在非資料中心活動中也看到它，它更多地作為一個運營商工作，將我們的 BMS 和傳統冷水機組結合在一起。因此，我們看到系統正在復甦，然後是產品。

So you're always going to see a little bit of variation by segment as they face different either tailwinds or headwinds. But what we've said is no segment left behind. The expectation is every segment grows 6% to 8%. And they're building their pipeline as we gear up for a really strong 2026.

因此，你總是會看到各個細分市場存在一些差異，因為它們面臨著不同的順風或逆風。但我們所說的並不是遺漏任何部分。預計每個部分將成長 6% 至 8%。他們正在建造自己的管道，我們正為 2026 年的強勁發展做準備。

Great. Thank you for that. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。謝謝你。我會傳達的。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

Thanks. Morning, everybody. I'll just be very quick here. First, just be helpful if you can talk about how you think volume is impacted, if at all, from some of the incentives going away at the end of September, I guess, related to the beautiful tax bill or whatever it's called. Can you just talk about, is there any assumption in your guidance around any impact from that? Or if you can just give us a little bit more color there. Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。我會很快講完。首先，如果您能談談您認為 9 月底取消的一些激勵措施對交易量有何影響（如果有的話），我想這和美麗的稅收法案或任何名稱有關。您能否談談，您的指導中是否對此產生的影響有任何假設？或者您是否可以為我們提供更多細節。謝謝。

We really don't see a material impact from 25C, 179D. Some of the provisions that were in there, we fundamentally think they were good provisions and they made sense. But they had not been material or very meaningful for us. So them going away is not a material impact.

我們確實沒有看到 25C、179D 的實質影響。我們從根本上認為其中的一些規定是好的，而且很合理。但對我們來說，它們並不重要，也沒有意義。所以他們的離開不會造成實質影響。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up to an earlier point around rebates or rollbacks on pricing. It didn't seem that there was any assumption for that in the revised outlook. Certainly, the margin for CSA didn't appear to seem that way for the full year. Is there any assumption for pricing rollbacks this year or later this year? Or is that not a factor, you think, as the year plays out?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我們再快速跟進一下之前關於回扣或價格回滾的問題。修訂後的展望中似乎沒有對此做出任何假設。當然，CSA 全年的利潤率看起來不是這樣的。是否有關於今年或今年稍後價格回落的假設？或者您認為，隨著時間的流逝，這根本不是一個因素？

We don't think -- I mean, Patrick talked about price by quarter, and I think it's been fairly consistent. So we don't see any kind of material price changes. The only thing we said is that resi in 4Q, just in our modeling, we've been assuming 5% to 6% a quarter. We think it's going to be more like a few percent. But that's probably about it. Otherwise, Patrick kind of laid out pricing by quarter. It's fairly consistent.

我們不認為——我的意思是，帕特里克談到了按季度計算的價格，我認為它一直相當一致。因此我們沒有看到任何材料價格變化。我們唯一說的是，第四季的房地產，就在我們的模型中，我們假設每季成長 5% 到 6%。我們認為這個數字可能會達到百分之幾。但大概就是這樣了。否則，帕特里克會按季度製定價格。這是相當一致的。

Yes. And the only change versus the prior guide really is, tariff-related pricing is now $200 million instead of $300 million in the May guide. But the net tariff impact on operating profit remains zero.

是的。與先前的指南相比，唯一的變化是，關稅相關定價現在為 2 億美元，而不是 5 月指南中的 3 億美元。但淨關稅對營業利潤的影響仍為零。

And then just last one for me. So when you talked about Europe margins going up sequentially, I get there's productivity. But I mean, that's a very big difference than what's happened over the last couple of years sequentially. Is there any way to kind of size the productivity numbers so we can just get a little bit more comfort on that sequential inflection from 3Q to 4Q in Europe?

對我來說，這是最後一個。因此，當您談到歐洲利潤率連續上升時，我明白了那裡的生產力。但我的意思是，這與過去幾年發生的情況相比有很大不同。有沒有什麼方法可以估算出生產力數字，以便我們能夠更放心地了解歐洲從第三季到第四季的連續變化？

Well, it's a mix of both higher sales and productivity. And so as I mentioned earlier, that sales in the second half of the year, it's not atypical to be about 20% higher than the first half of the year. And so there is a tremendous volume leverage that goes with it, given how weak volumes have been so far.

嗯，這是更高的銷售額和更高的生產力的結合。正如我之前提到的，下半年的銷售額比上半年高出 20% 左右是很正常的。因此，考慮到迄今為止交易量一直很低，隨之而來的是巨大的交易量槓桿。

In addition to that, there is the cost synergies that pick up. And we have said that this year -- last year, we said synergies on the cost side were about $75 million. This year, there'll be again that amount, probably a little bit more, and there'll be more second half weighted than first half weighted.

除此之外，成本綜效也在增強。我們說過，今年——去年，成本方面的協同效應約為 7,500 萬美元。今年，這個數字還會再上升，可能還會稍微多一點，而且下半年的加權金額會比上半年的加權金額更大。

Got it. Okay, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

知道了。好的，非常感謝。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I'd now like to hand the call back to David Gitlin for final remarks.

謝謝。現在我想將電話交還給 David Gitlin 進行最後的演講。

Well, thank you. Thank you, everyone, for joining. Obviously, a lot of moving parts in the macros, but I'm incredibly proud of the team, continue to deliver in 2Q, and we are very confident we'll do so in the second half for a year that's going to -- we're going to look back on and be very proud of with a lot of strength.

好的，謝謝你。謝謝大家的參與。顯然，宏觀層面上有很多變動，但我對團隊感到無比自豪，他們在第二季度繼續交付成果，並且我們非常有信心在下半年也能實現這一目標——我們將回顧這一年，並為自己的巨大實力感到非常自豪。

So my thanks to our team, to our customers, and thank you all for joining in.

所以我感謝我們的團隊、我們的客戶，也感謝大家的參與。

This concludes the meeting. You may now disconnect.

會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。