開利公司 (CARR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Carrier's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加開利公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁麥可‧雷德諾。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加開利公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是董事長兼執行長大衛·吉特林，以及財務長帕特里克·戈里斯。

Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs and certain significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

除另有說明外，本公司將就持續經營業績發表意見，不包括重組成本和某些重大非經常性項目。這些以及其他非GAAP財務指標的調節表可以在網路直播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties, Carrier's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

我們也提醒聽眾，本次演講包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。 Carrier 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格季度報告，提供了可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

接下來，我想把電話交給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Q3 was generally in line with what we shared in mid-September. At the Laguna Investor Conference, we indicated that North American resi softness would create about a $500 million sales challenge and a [$0.20 to $0.25] adjusted EPS headwind in the quarter. The actual impact was consistent with that.

謝謝你，麥克，大家早安。第三季整體情況與我們9月中旬公佈的情況基本一致。在拉古納投資者大會上，我們指出北美住宅市場的疲軟將導致本季銷售額減少約 5 億美元，並造成經調整每股收益下降 0.20 至 0.25 美元。實際影響與此相符。

Partially offsetting this was better-than-expected performance in commercial HVAC in the Americas, which was up 30% in the quarter, continued aftermarket traction, cost containment, and a discrete tax benefit. We also drove continued double-digit sales growth across multiple parts of our business, including CSE residential heat pumps, container, and our businesses in India and the Middle East.

部分抵銷這一影響的是美洲商業暖通空調業務超出預期的表現（本季成長 30%）、售後市場持續成長、成本控制以及一項獨立的稅收優惠。我們也推動了公司多個業務部門持續實現兩位數的銷售成長，包括 CSE 住宅熱泵、貨櫃以及我們在印度和中東的業務。

In addition to driving strong growth across many parts of our portfolio, we are taking aggressive cost actions to reduce overhead, including the elimination of about 3,000 indirect positions, which is on top of footprint and direct labor actions required to right size for demand in our factories. Given confidence in our strategy and our track record of execution, our Board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.

除了推動我們投資組合中許多領域的強勁成長外，我們還採取了積極的成本控制措施來降低管理費用，包括裁減約 3,000 個間接職位，此外，我們還採取了必要的規模調整和直接勞動力措施，以適應工廠的需求。鑑於對我們的策略和執行記錄充滿信心，董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購授權。

Turning to slide 4. We are laser-focused on our strategic priorities and continue to gain traction on our key initiatives. Our three vectors of growth: products, aftermarket, and systems are all progressing very well.

翻到第4張投影片。我們始終專注於策略重點，並在關鍵舉措方面不斷取得進展。我們的三大成長方向：產品、售後市場和系統，都進展得非常順利。

With respect to our first vector, which focuses on gaining share through differentiated products, brands, and channels, we booked our largest order ever earlier this month, securing another major win with a key hyperscaler. We also converted a top US homebuilder to Carrier, further enhancing our leading position in the new home construction sector.

就我們第一個策略方向而言，即透過差異化的產品、品牌和管道來獲取市場份額，我們在本月初獲得了有史以來最大的訂單，與一家重要的超大規模企業再次取得了重大勝利。我們也促成了一家美國頂級住宅建築商採用開利（Carrier）的方案，進一步鞏固了我們在新住宅領域的領先地位。

In Europe, we were again recognized for our market leading Viessmann heat pump products. In addition, our newly introduced Toshiba VRF product line and energy efficient container units are both contributing to share gains in their respective markets.

在歐洲，我們的威能熱泵產品再次獲得了市場認可。此外，我們新推出的東芝 VRF 產品線和節能貨櫃式機組都在各自的市場份額上取得了進展。

On aftermarket, we delivered 12% growth in the quarter and remain on track for our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. Connectivity and digital differentiation remain foundational. Connected chillers were up 30% in the quarter, and last week we had a major multi-year software win in the Middle East with Abound, our digital platform for buildings. Paid subscriptions for Lynx, our digital platform for transportation, were up 40% in the quarter to about $210,000.

在售後市場方面，我們本季實現了 12% 的成長，並有望連續第五年實現兩位數成長。互聯互通和數位化差異化仍然是基礎。本季連網冷水機組銷量成長了 30%，上週我們在中東地區與 Abound（我們的樓宇數位平台）達成了一項重要的多年軟體合作協議。本季度，我們面向交通運輸的數位平台 Lynx 的付費訂閱收入成長了 40%，達到約 21 萬美元。

Last on systems. Field trials for our Carrier Energy HEMS offering in North America are progressing well, and we remain on track for market introduction mid next year. We also continue to make significant progress on our QuantumLeap integrated system offering for data centers with customer discussions advancing well.

最後是系統方面。我們在北美進行的 Carrier Energy HEMS 產品現場試驗進展順利，我們仍按計劃於明年年中向市場推出。我們在資料中心的 QuantumLeap 整合系統產品方面也持續取得重大進展，與客戶的洽談進展順利。

In our CSE RLC business in Germany, we continue to qualify additional systems Profi installers. Certified installers realize growth of 15% to 20% in the quarter, far above the average installer.

在德國的 CSE RLC 業務中，我們繼續對更多系統 Profi 安裝商進行認證。獲得認證的安裝人員本季實現了 15% 至 20% 的成長，遠高於普通安裝人員。

Turning to CSA resi on slide 5. Though we are, of course, not pleased with the unexpected decline this year, this is a best-in-class business. We hold the number one market position and our share continues to grow.

請參閱第 5 張投影片上的 CSA resi。雖然我們對今年的意外下滑當然感到不滿，但這仍然是一家一流的企業。我們佔據市場第一的位置，市場份額持續成長。

Our products and brands are second to none. Our extensive distribution and dealer partnerships help provide competitive differentiation. All of this results in great margins and cash flow in this business.

我們的產品和品牌都是首屈一指的。我們廣泛的分銷管道和經銷商合作夥伴關係有助於提供競爭優勢。所有這些都為該業務帶來了豐厚的利潤和充裕的現金流。

We are working with our channel partners to collectively take all of our medicine this year. We are, therefore, being very purposeful about right sizing field inventory levels as we head into 2026. At the end of Q3, field inventories were down 12% compared to last year.

我們正與通路夥伴共同努力，爭取今年統一採購所有藥品。因此，在邁向 2026 年之際，我們正在有意識地調整現場庫存水準。第三季末，田間庫存量比去年同期下降了 12%。

As of today, field inventory levels are down another 10 points since the beginning of the month and are down about 20% versus last year. By year end, we expect inventory levels in the field to be down 30% versus last year, the lowest level since 2018. We will continue to play offense and given continued investments and our aggressive cost takeout, we expect to realize outsized returns as this business recovers.

截至今日，田間庫存水準較月初又下降了 10 個百分點，較去年同期下降了約 20%。預計到年底，現場庫存水準將比去年下降 30%，為 2018 年以來的最低水準。我們將繼續採取進攻策略，憑藉持續的投資和積極的成本削減措施，我們預計隨著業務的復甦，我們將獲得超額回報。

Turning to CSE's RLC business on slide 6. The good news is that electrification across Europe is accelerating and we are realizing the mix up benefit from heat pump adoption. Our residential heat pump sales in Europe were up about 15% in the quarter, with heat pump sales in Germany up about 45%.

接下來，我們來看看投影片 6 的 CSE RLC 業務。好消息是，歐洲的電氣化進程正在加速，我們正在認識到採用熱泵帶來的混合效益。本季我們在歐洲的住宅熱泵銷量成長了約 15%，其中德國的熱泵銷量成長了約 45%。

We expect this trend to continue. For example, we have seen heat pump subsidy applications in Germany increase and expect them to double versus last year to [$300,000]. Nevertheless, in the category of controlling the controllables, we run the business to be successful, independent of subsidies. This is why we have been focused on significantly reducing product and installation costs for our heat pumps to incentivize the continued transition to electrification, independent of government subsidies.

我們預計這一趨勢將會持續。例如，我們看到德國的熱泵補貼申請數量增加，預計今年將比去年翻倍。[30萬美元]然而，在控制可控因素方面，我們經營業務是為了成功，而不是依賴補貼。正因如此，我們一直致力於大幅降低熱泵的產品和安裝成本，以激勵持續向電氣化轉型，而無需政府補貼。

More broadly, we continue to see a desire across European countries to become less reliant on gas, and key leading indicators of continued heat pump adoption remain positive. Just last week, the EU gave another vote of confidence for ETS2 to become effective on January 1, 2027, which is a reminder -- as a reminder, is the system for increased pricing on carbon and heating and transport, supporting the continued transition to electrification.

更廣泛地說，我們繼續看到歐洲各國希望減少對天然氣的依賴，而熱泵持續普及的關鍵領先指標仍保持積極態勢。就在上週，歐盟再次對 ETS2 投下信任票，使其於 2027 年 1 月 1 日生效。這再次提醒人們——ETS2 是一個提高碳排放、暖氣和運輸價格的體系，旨在支持向電氣化持續轉型。

However, for the past couple of years, the strength that we have seen in heat pump unit growth has been more than offset by the overall market unit declines driven by boilers. With heating units in markets such as Germany at 15-year lows, these markets are poised for recovery. Importantly, we continue to make key investments in market differentiation and expansion while taking significant costs out, positioning as well for 2026 and beyond.

然而，在過去幾年裡，熱泵機組成長的強勁勢頭被鍋爐驅動的整體市場機組下降所抵消。德國等市場的暖氣設備銷售量已降至 15 年來的最低點，這些市場可望復甦。重要的是，我們繼續對市場差異化和擴張進行關鍵投資，同時大幅削減成本，為 2026 年及以後的發展做好準備。

Turning to slide 7. Our commercial HVAC business in CSA has had best-in-class performance over the past five years. At the time of our spin, this was the one area within our portfolio where we were underinvested. We said we would invest, gain share, and increase margins, and we have. Our investments in technology, know-how, capacity, and talent are paying off.

翻到第7張投影片。過去五年，我們在CSA的商業暖通空調業務一直保持著業界最佳表現。當我們進行分拆時，這是我們投資組合中唯一投資不足的領域。我們說過要投資、擴大市場佔有率、提高利潤率，而我們也做到了。我們在技術、專業知識、產能和人才方面的投資正在獲得回報。

Not only has the total business more than doubled in five years, but also our applied business, aftermarket, and controls have all doubled during this period. We have also significantly improved our margins. Given our strong backlog, we expect this performance to continue.

五年內，公司整體業務不僅成長了一倍多，應用業務、售後市場和控制業務也都成長了一倍。我們的利潤率也大幅提高。鑑於我們強勁的訂單儲備，我們預計這種業績表現將持續下去。

We see data centers as an opportunity to further accelerate our share gains as you see on slide 8. Data centers remain a top priority for us and our traction has been excellent, especially on orders in the past few months.

正如您在第 8 頁幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們認為資料中心是一個可以進一步加速我們市場份額成長的機會。資料中心仍然是我們的首要任務，而且我們的進展非常順利，尤其是在過去幾個月的訂單方面。

We remain on track to double our sales from $500 million last year to $1 billion this year. We expect to see continued growth in this vertical next year, given that we project our backlog entering 2026 for 2026 to be up about 20% year-over-year.

我們仍有望實現今年銷售額翻倍的目標，從去年的5億美元增加到今年的10億美元。我們預計明年該垂直領域將繼續成長，因為我們預計到 2026 年，我們的積壓訂單將年增約 20%。

Relationships with all the hyperscalers and our colo customers are very strong. Our win rate and size of wins have continued to increase. For example, in addition to multi-$100 million wins with hyperscalers, we recently secured a win with a colo customer in the Americas exceeding $100 million. Our overall backlog has increased quite a bit over the past few months and now extends into 2028.

我們與所有超大規模資料中心營運商和託管客戶的關係都非常牢固。我們的勝率和單場勝場數持續成長。例如，除了與超大規模資料中心達成數億美元的交易外，我們最近還與美洲的一家託管客戶達成了一項超過 1 億美元的交易。過去幾個月，我們的積壓訂單總量大幅增加，現在已經排到 2028 年了。

Before I turn it over to Patrick, some high-level perspectives on slide 9. We are very well positioned to create outsized value for our customers and our shareholders. Through a purposeful transformation, we created a focused yet balanced portfolio with leading positions in targeted geographies and verticals. We like that we are not overly exposed to any one geography or vertical and, in fact, have balanced exposure to the right geographies and verticals.

在把發言權交給派崔克之前，我想先從一些宏觀角度談談第 9 張投影片。我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢，能為客戶和股東創造巨大的價值。透過有目的的轉型，我們打造了一個專注而均衡的投資組合，在目標地區和垂直領域中佔據領先地位。我們喜歡自己不會過度集中於任何一個地區或垂直領域，事實上，我們對合適的地區和垂直領域都有均衡的了解。

As we look ahead, we expect the parts of our portfolio that have been strong to remain strong, particularly commercial HVAC and our aftermarket business, which together, constitute just under 45% of our sales. And we expect that those parts that have faced near-term headwinds, particularly RLC in the Americas, and Europe, and Global Truck Trailer, to be positioned for a return to growth. And when they do, we stand to have outsized benefit given our market leading positions and the aggressive cost actions that we're taking this year.

展望未來，我們預計我們投資組合中表現強勁的部分將繼續保持強勁勢頭，特別是商用暖通空調和售後市場業務，這兩項業務加起來占我們銷售額的近 45%。我們預計，那些近期面臨不利因素的部門，特別是美洲和歐洲的 RLC 部門以及全球卡車拖車部門，將有望恢復成長。而一旦他們這樣做，鑑於我們市場領先的地位以及我們今年正在採取的積極的成本控制措施，我們將獲得巨大的利益。

In terms of controlling the controllables as we always do, you know our formula from our Investor Day: share gains through differentiation, sustained double-digit aftermarket growth, and investing in systems to drive unique value for our customers and TAM expansion. You can always count on us to drive costs out of the system in a programmatic and aggressive manner, and we will be disciplined with capital allocation with a near-term focus on share buyback.

就控制可控因素而言，正如我們一貫的做法，您從我們的投資者日上已經了解了我們的策略：透過差異化獲得市場份額，持續實現兩位數的售後市場增長，並投資於能夠為我們的客戶創造獨特價值和擴大TAM的系統。您可以放心，我們將以系統化和積極主動的方式降低系統成本，並且我們將嚴格控制資本配置，近期將重點放在股票回購上。

With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

接下來，我將把麥克風交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 10. For the quarter, reported sales were $5.6 billion, adjusted operating profit was $823 million and adjusted EPS was $0.67. The year-over-year decline in these financial metrics largely relates to much lower volumes in our CSA residential business. The results are largely in line with what we outlined in September with the exception that we saw a $0.07 benefit from a lower tax rate, about $0.05 of which timing between Q3 and Q4.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早安。請翻到第10張投影片。本季報告銷售額為56億美元，調整後營業利潤為8.23億美元，調整後每股收益為0.67美元。這些財務指標較去年同期下降的主因是CSA住宅業務的銷售量大幅下滑。結果與我們9月份概述的結果基本一致，唯一的區別是，較低的稅率帶來了0.07美元的收益，其中約0.05美元的收益發生在第三季度和第四季度之間。

Total company organic growth was down 4%. The 2024 exit of commercial refrigeration was also a 4% headwind, partially offset by a 1% tailwind from currency. Adjusted operating profit was down 21%, primarily due to lower volume in our CSA resi business. Tariffs were net neutral in the quarter.

公司整體有機成長率下降了4%。2024 年商用冷凍退出市場也帶來了 4% 的不利影響，但匯率帶來的 1% 利好部分抵銷了這一影響。調整後的營業利潤下降了 21%，主要原因是我們的 CSA 住宅業務銷售下降。本季關稅淨變動為中性。

Adjusted EPS was down 13%. We included the year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on slide 19. Free cash flow of about $225 million, reflects lower operating profit as well as higher working capital levels given the sudden reduction in sales.

調整後每股收益下降13%。我們在附錄第 19 頁投影片中加入了同比調整後的 EPS 過渡資料。自由現金流約為 2.25 億美元，反映出營業利潤下降以及由於銷售額突然減少而導致的營運資本水準上升。

Moving on to the segments, starting on slide 11. Organic sales in the CSA segment declined 8%. Commercial delivered another exceptional quarter with sales up 30%. Residential and light commercial sales came in right about where we expected per our September update.

接下來進入各部分，從第 11 張投影片開始。CSA 細分市場的有機銷售額下降了 8%。商業部門又迎來了一個表現優異的季度，銷售額成長了 30%。住宅和輕型商業銷售情況基本上符合我們9月的預期。

Resi sales were down 30%, driven by a roughly 40% decline in volume, offset by double-digit regulatory mix-up and pricing. Light commercial sales declined 4%. Aftermarket sales across the segment increased mid-teens with particular strength in controls. Segment operating margin was 19.7%, down 560 basis points, reflecting the impact of much lower resi volume.

住宅銷售下降了 30%，主要原因是銷量下降了約 40%，但這兩位數的監管混亂和定價波動抵消了部分影響。輕型商用車銷量下降了4%。該細分市場的售後銷售額成長了兩位數以上，其中控制類產品表現特別強勁。該部門的營業利潤率為 19.7%，下降了 560 個基點，反映出住宅銷量大幅下降的影響。

Moving to the CSE segment on slide 12. Residential and light commercial sales were down low-single-digits, reflecting continued heating market unit declines in the region. As Dave mentioned, heat pump sales growth across Europe remains strong.

接下來進入第 12 張投影片的 CSE 部分。住宅和輕型商業銷售額下降了個位數百分比，反映出該地區供暖市場單位數量的持續下降。正如戴夫所說，歐洲各地的熱泵銷售成長依然強勁。

Commercial declined mid-single digits, reflecting some large project timing that we expect to partially recover in Q4. Segment operating margin declined 110 basis points, driven by lower organic sales and mix, partially offset by productivity, including cost synergies. We are accelerating additional reductions in headcount and other cost actions in this segment.

商業活動出現個位數中段下滑，反映出一些大型專案的時間安排，我們預計這些專案將在第四季部分恢復。受有機銷售額和產品組合下降的影響，分部營業利潤率下降了 110 個基點，部分被生產力提高（包括成本協同效應）所抵銷。我們正在加快該部門進一步裁員和其他成本控制措施。

Turning to the CSAME segment on slide 13. Organic sales declined 2%. Continued double-digit growth in India and the Middle East was more than offset by ongoing weakness in resi and light commercial in China. Within China, our resi and light commercial business was down mid-teens, partially offset by commercial, which was up mid-single digits. Segment operating margin of 11.6% was primarily driven by strong productivity gains, offset by lower volume.

接下來請看第 13 張投影片上的 CSAME 部分。有機產品銷售額下降了2%。印度和中東地區持續兩位數的成長被中國住宅和輕型商用市場的持續疲軟所抵消。在中國，我們的住宅和輕型商業業務下降了15%左右，部分被商業業務的成長所抵消，商業業務的成長幅度為個位數中段。該業務部門的營業利益率為 11.6%，主要得益於生產效率的大幅提升，但被銷量下降所抵銷。

Finally, moving to CST on slide 14. Organic sales were up 6%, led by continued very strong growth in container, partially offset by mid-single-digit decline in Global Truck and Trailer. North America Truck and Trailer was flat. Segment operating margin of 15.4% expanded by 80 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by the 2024 exit of commercial refrigeration.

最後，在第 14 張投影片上切換到 CST。有機銷售額成長 6%，主要得益於貨櫃業務的持續強勁成長，但全球卡車和拖車業務的個位數中段下滑部分抵消了這一成長。北美卡車和拖車業一片蕭條。該業務部門的營業利潤率為 15.4%，年成長 80 個基點，主要原因是 2024 年退出商用冷凍業務。

Turning to slide 15. Total company organic orders were down high-single-digits for the quarter. Excluding CSA resi orders, which were impacted by last year's elevated preordering related to the refrigerant transition, total company orders were up low-single-digits.

翻到第15張投影片。本季公司有機產品訂單總量下降了接近兩位數。除受去年冷媒過渡期間預訂量增加影響的 CSA 住宅訂單外，該公司總訂單量僅增加了個位數百分比。

CSA residential orders were down about 40% compared to orders up 30% last year. As expected, commercial orders in CSA have been and will continue to be lumpy given large data center wins.

CSA住宅訂單量下降了約40%，而去年同期訂單量增加了30%。正如預期的那樣，鑑於大型資料中心專案的中標，CSA 的商業訂單一直並將繼續呈現波動性。

In CSA, residential and light commercial orders grew low-single-digits and are up mid-single digits year-to-date. We expect commercial orders in CSE to pick up in the coming quarters given a strong pipeline, including data center projects in this region. Orders in CSAME were flat with strong growth outside of China. CST orders were exceptionally strong, led by container up about 100% and Global Truck and Trailer, which was up about 25%.

在CSA地區，住宅和輕型商業訂單實現了個位數低成長，今年迄今實現了個位數中成長。鑑於該地區擁有強勁的發展勢頭，包括數據中心項目，我們預計 CSE 的商業訂單將在未來幾季回升。中國、東南亞及中東地區的訂單量持平，但中國以外地區的訂單量強勁成長。CST訂單異常強勁，其中貨櫃訂單成長約100%，全球卡車和拖車訂單成長約25%。

Shifting to guidance and moving to slide 16. The updated guidance primarily reflects market weakness in our residential and light commercial businesses in the Americas and Europe. We now anticipate CSA resi to be down high-single-digits versus our prior outlook of up mid-single digits.

轉入指導部分，並跳轉至第 16 張投影片。更新後的業績指引主要反映了我們在美洲和歐洲的住宅和輕型商業業務的市場疲軟。我們現在預計 CSA 居民人數將下降接近兩位數，而我們先前的預期是上升接近兩位數。

In Europe, we now anticipate our RLC business to be down mid-single digits versus the prior outlook of about flat. Partially offsetting these headwinds, the Americas commercial business is expected to grow over 25% this year, an outstanding performance. Overall, we now expect about $22 billion in sales for 2025. About $700 million of the reduction versus our prior guide relates to CSA resi.

在歐洲，我們現在預期 RLC 業務將出現中等個位數的下滑，而先前的預期是基本持平。部分抵消了這些不利因素，預計美洲商業業務今年將成長超過 25%，這是一個非常出色的業績。總體而言，我們現在預計 2025 年的銷售額約為 220 億美元。與我們先前的指導相比，約 7 億美元的減少與 CSA 住宅有關。

Moving to profit and cash guide on slide 17. We are revising our full-year adjusted operating margin guidance. Our updated margin expectation for CS Americas and CS Europe reflect volume declines in the RLC businesses in both segments. In addition, we are adjusting our margin outlook for transportation given stronger expected container sales and lower NATT sales.

第 17 頁將進入利潤和現金流指南部分。我們正在修訂全年調整後營業利潤率預期。我們更新的 CS Americas 和 CS Europe 的利潤率預期反映了這兩個部門 RLC 業務的銷售下降。此外，鑑於預計貨櫃銷售將更加強勁，而NATT銷售將下降，我們正在調整運輸業務的利潤率預期。

We are adding to the cost reduction actions we initiated earlier this year to right size the business and now expect carryover savings in 2026 to amount to over $100 million. The net full-year tariff impact in our current guide remains 0 in terms of operating profit.

我們正在今年稍早啟動的成本削減措施的基礎上，進一步調整業務規模，預計到 2026 年，結轉節省金額將超過 1 億美元。根據我們目前的指導方針，關稅對全年營業利潤的淨影響仍為 0。

We expect full-year adjusted EPS of about $2.65, including a lower adjusted effective tax rate closer to 21% and expect free cash flow of about $2 billion, reflecting lower earnings and higher anticipated cash restructuring costs of about $150 million. Finally, we continue to expect about $3 billion of share repurchases this year.

我們預計全年調整後每股收益約為 2.65 美元，其中包括接近 21% 的較低調整後實際稅率；預計自由現金流約為 20 億美元，這反映了收益下降和預計現金重組成本增加約 1.5 億美元。最後，我們仍然預計今年將有約 30 億美元的股票回購。

Additional full-year guide items are in the appendix on slide 21. With respect to Q4, we expect CSA resi sales down approximately 30% and volumes down about 40% and continued significant headwinds from under-absorption as the channel continues to destock.

全年指南的其他項目請參閱第 21 頁附錄。就第四季而言，我們預計 CSA 零售額將下降約 30%，銷售量將下降約 40%，並且由於通路持續去庫存，消化不足將繼續帶來重大不利影響。

Before moving to Q&A, let me make a few comments on how to frame 2026. First, we expect to end 2025 with CSA resi destocking behind us. Obviously, we expect a difficult compare in the first half of 2026 in CSA resi, which will have an impact on total company performance, particularly in the first quarter.

在進入問答環節之前，我想先就如何展望 2026 年談幾點看法。首先，我們預計到 2025 年底，CSA 住宅庫存減少工作將告一段落。顯然，我們預計 2026 年上半年 CSA resi 的業績將面臨較大的年比差異，這將對公司整體業績產生影響，尤其是在第一季。

Second, we are executing on significant cost actions, which we have spoken about previously. This should amount to roughly $0.10 carryover adjusted EPS tailwind next year.

其次，我們正在執行先前討論過的重大成本控制措施。這應該會為明年帶來約 0.10 美元的結轉調整後每股收益利好。

Third, we expect about a 100-basis-point ongoing benefit from a lower tax rate. In total, we therefore expect about $0.20 of adjusted EPS tailwind in 2026 from the combination of carryover restructuring benefits, tax, and share repo. It is too early to comment on the levels of 2026 organic growth, but it's fair to say that we target about 30% conversion.

第三，我們預計較低的稅率將帶來約 100 個基點的持續收益。因此，我們預計 2026 年調整後每股盈餘將因結轉重組收益、稅收和股票回購等因素而增加約 0.20 美元。現在評論 2026 年的有機成長水準還為時過早，但可以肯定的是，我們的目標是實現約 30% 的轉換率。

For planning purposes, given heightened levels of uncertainty, we are running the business assuming low-single-digit organic growth in 2026. In addition, the net carryover impact of pricing and tariffs is expected to remain dollar neutral based on tariffs and pricing in place today.

出於規劃目的，鑑於不確定性程度較高，我們假設 2026 年的有機成長率將為個位數低段。此外，根據目前的關稅和定價，預計價格和關稅的淨結轉影響將保持美元中立。

With that, I would like to ask the operator to open the line for Q&A.

因此，我想請接線員開通問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作說明）Jeffrey Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

Hey. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, just obviously a couple of questions around resi. Just first of all, Dave or Patrick, looking at your consolidated inventories, they're up sequentially in the quarter, typically down. Clearly, you've pointed to more work to do to clear the channel.

嘿。謝謝。各位早安。嘿，顯然有幾個關於住宅方面的問題。首先，Dave 或 Patrick，看看你們的合併庫存，本季庫存環比上升，而通常情況下是下降的。顯然，您指出還需要做更多工作來清理通道。

But can you unpack that for us, the volume decline that you're expecting in resi plus what other moving pieces might be going on in inventory? And maybe as part of that, obviously, getting the channel where you want it to be depends not only on your actions on production, but really how sell-through is progressing. So maybe just a little bit of color on what you think kind of sell-through or movement might be as we (inaudible)

您能否為我們詳細解釋一下，您預計住宅銷量會下降，以及庫存方面可能還有哪些其他因素在起作用？顯然，要讓頻道達到你想要的目標，不僅取決於你在製作方面的努力，還取決於銷售情況的進展。所以，或許可以稍微談談你認為銷售狀況或市場走勢可能會如何。（聽不清楚）

Sounds good, Jeff, and good morning. I'll take the first part of the question. So far, on a consolidated level, our inventories are up about $500 million. Of that, about $400 million is in our CSA resi segment. And of the $400 million increase in our CSA segment, the resi element is about $350 million of that increase.

聽起來不錯，傑夫，早安。我來回答問題的第一部分。到目前為止，從整體來看，我們的庫存增加了約 5 億美元。其中約 4 億美元來自我們的 CSA 住宅領域。在我們 CSA 業務部門 4 億美元的成長中，住宅部分約佔 3.5 億美元。

And basically, it's a reflection of two things. One, a sudden decline in residential volume. And so it takes some time for our supply chain to adjust to that. The second element is we have purposefully increased inventories a little bit this year related to our components replacement business to ensure that we can satisfy demand over there.

基本上，這反映了兩件事。第一，住宅數量突然下降。因此，我們的供應鏈需要一些時間來適應這種情況。第二點是，今年我們特意增加了一些與零件更換業務相關的庫存，以確保我們能夠滿足那邊的需求。

We do expect this inventory to start reducing. Actually, it started reducing already. And the inventory levels will come down by the end of the year. They probably won't come down exactly to where we would like them to be. And the reason for that is we're really balancing within our factories the levels of ongoing production with taking out a lot of labor that we just have them to rehire the first quarter of the year.

我們預計庫存將開始減少。實際上，它已經開始減少了。到年底庫存水準將會下降。它們可能不會完全降到我們希望的位置。原因在於，我們正在努力平衡工廠的持續生產水準和裁減大量勞動力，以便在第一季重新僱用他們。

And so there's a little bit of a balance there between operating profit and free cash flow and ensuring that we can meet expected demand in the first quarter of the year. So you can expect that increase to start coming down by the end of the calendar year.

因此，我們需要在營業利潤和自由現金流之間取得一定的平衡，以確保我們能夠滿足今年第一季的預期需求。因此，預計到年底，這一增幅將開始下降。

And Jeff, it's Dave. In terms of field inventory levels, we are going to great lengths with our distribution partners to try to start next year with a clean slate, take all of our medicine this year. I mentioned that our expectation is that field inventory levels ending this year will be down 30% year-over-year.

傑夫，我是戴夫。就現場庫存水準而言，我們正在與分銷合作夥伴竭盡全力，爭取明年一切從零開始，今年就把所有的藥品都處理完。我曾提到，我們預計今年底的現場庫存水準將年減 30%。

In terms of your question on movement, movement was down about 30%, it looks like in October, and we expect movement to be down in the mid-20s for November and December. Now remember, movement was very strong in 4Q last year. It was up about 30%.

關於您提出的移動量問題，10 月份移動量似乎下降了約 30%，我們預計 11 月和 12 月移動量將下降 20% 左右。請記住，去年第四季市場走勢非常強勁。上漲了約30%。

And then it started to get weaker as we got into Q1 of this year. So movement starting in Q1 of this year was negative. So we'll start to see some easier comps on movement.

然後，到了今年第一季，它就開始走弱了。因此，今年第一季以來的走勢為負。所以我們將開始看到一些更容易的移動類比。

So when you end this year at inventory levels at 2018 levels, we feel like that's the right number. We don't feel like that destocking will be a further headwind as we get into next year, and then we'll have to see what movement does as we get into Q1.

因此，如果今年的庫存水準能達到 2018 年的水平，我們認為這個數字就合適了。我們認為，到明年，去庫存化不會成為進一步的阻力，然後我們還要看看第一季市場走勢如何。

And maybe just a follow-up. There's like 27 other questions, but I'll just ask one and pass the time. Patrick, in your answer, you mentioned repair. Where do you guys stand on what's going on in the repair versus replace dynamic, and just the health of the consumer and managing through price and the question of price elasticity?

或許還需要後續跟進。還有大約27個其他問題，但我只問一個，打發時間。派崔克，你在回答中提到了維修。你們對維修與更換之間的動態關係，以及消費者的健康狀況、價格管理以及價格彈性問題，持什麼看法？

Yeah. As you know, Jeff, we get this a lot, and there's really no exact way to measure that. Our parts are up quite a bit, but we've been very purposeful about increasing our share of wallet on part sales. So we would expect that to be up given the initiatives we're driving.

是的。傑夫，你知道，我們經常遇到這種情況，但真的沒有辦法準確衡量。我們的零件價格上漲了不少，但我們一直有意識地提高零件銷售的市場佔有率。鑑於我們正在推進的各項舉措，我們預計這一數字將會上升。

When we talk to our distribution partners, they do not see an outsized growth on discrete part sales, compressors or other key components where that would be indicative of a repair versus replace. Having said that, it's hard not to imagine that there is more consumers opting for repair over replace, and we're hearing some sporadic pickup of that in certain locations. So I would have to believe it's happening in the system, although it's really hard to dimensionalize just how much.

當我們與分銷合作夥伴交談時，他們並沒有看到離散零件銷售、壓縮機或其他關鍵部件出現異常增長，這表明維修比更換更為普遍。話雖如此，不難想像會有更多消費者選擇維修而不是更換，而且我們在某些​​地方也零星聽到了一些這種趨勢。所以我不得不相信這種情況正在系統中發生，儘管很難衡量其程度。

Scott Davis, Melius.

史考特戴維斯，梅利厄斯。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Just to follow up a little bit on Jeff's question, has the inventory destock and the reset, does that impact your ability to get the price that you wanted to get for 2026 when you think about -- you're still working off a little bit of a higher cost base overall. So does that change the price dynamic at all?

嘿。各位早安。針對 Jeff 的問題，我想稍微補充一下，庫存清倉和重置是否會影響您在 2026 年獲得預期價格的能力——考慮到您的整體成本基礎仍然略高一些。那麼這會改變價格格局嗎？

We'll have to see, Jeff, as we think about '26 pricing -- I mean, Scott. When we think about '26 pricing, we'll announce a mid-single-digit price increase here for next year. We'll probably announce that in the next couple of weeks. And we would expect to yield in the low-single-digit range.

傑夫，我們得看看 2026 年的定價——我是說，斯科特。當我們考慮 2026 年的定價時，我們將在此宣布明年價格將上漲個位數中段。我們可能會在接下來的幾週內宣布此事。我們預期收益率將在個位數低點。

When you think about this year, we've said that the combination of mix and price have both been around in that 10% range. That will continue here for 4Q. We'll get a little bit less of the mix benefit in Q4 here because we started shipping some of the 454B in the fourth quarter of last year. But in terms of price, I think this year has been probably closer to mid-single-digits and next year is probably closer to low-single-digits.

回顧今年，我們曾說過，產品組合和價格的漲幅都維持在 10% 左右。這種情況將持續到第四季。由於我們從去年第四季開始交付部分 454B 產品，因此我們第四季獲得的混合收益會略少一些。但就價格而言，我認為今年的價格可能更接近個位數中段，而明年的價格可能更接近個位數低點。

Okay. That makes sense. And then if you don't mind, David, just giving us a little bit of detail on the restructuring. Are you talking about -- or you didn't say structuring, you said cost containment. But is there structural cost out versus just the usual cut in discretionary spend? Is there actual structural cost out that we can count on lingering not just into '26 but going forward?

好的。這很有道理。大衛，如果你不介意的話，你能不能給我們詳細介紹一下重組的情況？你指的是──或者你沒說結構化，你說的是成本控制。但是否存在結構性成本增加，而不僅僅是削減可自由支配的支出？是否存在一些實際的結構性成本，我們可以預料到這些成本不僅會持續到 2026 年，還會持續到未來？

100%. I mean that's the entire purpose is to take out structural costs. This is not -- we're not just trying to squeeze short-term costs. We're focused on indirect headcount. We're looking at about 3,000 heads.

100%。我的意思是，這樣做的目的就是為了消除結構性成本。並非如此——我們並非只是想削減短期成本。我們關注的是間接員工人數。我們估計大約有3000個頭部。

And then the whole goal is to make sure that we are very disciplined about not adding those heads back in. And it's not just giving out targets and having people take the heads out, we're trying to do things like using Patrick's CBS organization to do things differently in terms of how we deal with collections or payables or do things much more efficiently.

而我們的最終目標是確保我們嚴格遵守不把那些人頭重新加回去的原則。這不僅是下達目標，讓人們去完成目標，我們還在嘗試利用派崔克的 CBS 組織，在收款或應付帳款的處理方式上做出改變，或以更有效率的方式做事。

Bobby and our IT department using AI in groups like our legal department or elsewhere to make us more efficient in how we do things in the back office. So we're trying to do things a lot smarter, a lot more efficiently.

Bobby 和我們的 IT 部門正在利用人工智慧技術，在我們的法律部門或其他部門中提高後台辦公效率。所以我們正在努力讓做事更聰明、更有效率。

We have 20,000 Copilot licenses that are starting to cascade across Carrier. So the answer is 100% focused on structural cost takeout that comes out and stays out.

我們有 20,000 個 Copilot 許可證，這些許可證正在 Carrier 內部逐步推廣。所以答案是 100% 專注於消除結構性成本，並且消除後不再增加。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. Good morning. So just running off the initial thoughts or comments on next year, Patrick, I suppose one could surmise you get to something like a $2.90s of EPS or something, maybe high-single-digit EPS growth and mid-single-digit profit growth based off the low-single-digit sales and 30% incremental placeholders.

你好。早安.派崔克，就明年的初步想法或評論而言，我想大家可以推測，每股收益大概能達到 2.90 美元左右，或許能達到個位數高的每股收益增長，以及個位數中段的利潤增長，這是基於個位數低段的銷售額增長和 30% 的增量佔位符計算得出的。

Within that framework, just trying to understand maybe a little bit deeper how you're thinking about CSA resi in terms of the outlook as you think about sell-out or movement dynamics and the recoupling of sell-in versus that. Maybe flesh that out a little bit, please, as you think beyond December?

在這個框架內，我只是想更深入地了解一下，您在考慮拋售或走勢動態以及賣出與賣出之間的重新耦合時，是如何看待 CSA resi 的前景的。請您在考慮十二月之後的事情時，稍微詳細闡述一下？

Sounds good, Julian. So first of all, in my comments, what I was saying was that we expect to see a $0.20 adjusted EPS benefit just from the restructuring benefits, from tax, and share repurchases. That is without any organic growth.

聽起來不錯，朱利安。首先，我在評論中提到，我們預計僅重組帶來的好處、稅收和股票回購就能使調整後的每股盈餘增加 0.20 美元。這完全沒有考慮自然增長。

And we said for internal planning purposes, just as to how we run the business that we're assuming low-single-digits of organic growth. If you look across our portfolio today, and Dave mentioned this, a little over 40% of our sales has been growing double-digits and would expect that to continue next year. That's our aftermarket business and our global commercial HVAC business. That would get you to about 4% organic growth next year if that continues with the rest of the company flat.

我們出於內部規劃的目的，以及為了更好地經營業務，假設有機成長率為個位數。如果你看看我們今天的投資組合，正如戴夫提到的那樣，我們超過 40% 的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長，預計明年將繼續保持這一增長勢頭。那是我們的售後市場業務和全球商用暖通空調業務。如果這種情況持續下去，而公司其他業務保持不變，那麼明年你的有機成長率將達到約 4%。

And so the question really is what happens with the balance of the company and a big part of that is CSA resi. At this point and it's still very early, our estimate is it may be flat to slightly up from a volume perspective.

因此，真正的問題是公司的平衡會發生什麼變化，而 CSA resi 是其中很重要的一部分。現階段，現在下結論還為時過早，但從成交量來看，我們估計可能會持平或略有上升。

And in Europe, as Dave mentioned, it has been quite weak for a long period of time. Our largest market, Germany, the market there is at 15-year lows. We see a hard time that getting worse. And so we think flat might be a safe assumption, maybe it gets better.

正如戴夫所提到的那樣，歐洲的經濟長期以來一直很疲軟。我們最大的市場德國，那裡的市場正處於 15 年來的最低點。我們看到情況正在惡化。因此，我們認為保持平穩可能是一個比較穩健的假設，也許情況會好轉。

That's very helpful. And then just maybe my quick follow-up would be looking at the CSA commercial HVAC businesses in terms of light commercial as well as the larger applied business. How are you seeing the demand in the non-data center verticals there?

那很有幫助。然後，我可能會快速跟進一下，看看 CSA 商用 HVAC 業務，包括輕型商用和大型應用業務。您如何看待非資料中心垂直產業的需求？

I understand orders are lumpy. I think they were down in CSA commercial in the third quarter, but a big data center Q4 order. But if we think about the non-data center demand in CSA, light and applied, how is that looking?

我知道訂單量會有波動。我認為他們在第三季的CSA商業訂單有所下降，但第四季度獲得了一筆大型資料中心訂單。但如果我們考慮CSA中非資料中心的需求，例如輕型應用領域的需求，情況如何呢？

Yeah. Julian, if you look at the commercial HVAC business, non-data centers were up, and from a sales perspective, in the low-teens. So the Data Center business in our commercial HVAC business was up about 250%. Non-data centers up in the low-teens. So total was up 30%. So our applied business in commercial HVAC in the Americas was up 60%.

是的。朱利安，如果你看看商業暖通空調業務，非資料中心業務有所成長，從銷售額來看，成長幅度在十幾個百分點左右。因此，我們商業暖通空調業務中的資料中心業務成長了約 250%。非資料中心數量在十幾萬左右。所以總成長率為30%。因此，我們在美洲的商業暖通空調應用業務成長了 60%。

Non-data centers, it continues to be a bit of a mixed bag. We're doing very, very well in things like the mega projects, healthcare, even more so in commercial than light commercial. But surprisingly, commercial real estate was even up again this quarter over last quarter.

對於非資料中心領域，情況依然喜憂參半。我們在大型專案、醫療保健等領域做得非常好，在商業領域甚至比在輕型商業領域做得更好。但出乎意料的是，本季商業房地產價格甚至比上季再次上漲。

We don't see that as a trend. You know ABI is quite low. But for whatever reason, we've seen growth in commercial real estate two quarters in a row. Higher ed and K-12 are weak, both for commercial HVAC and light commercial.

我們不認為這是一種趨勢。你知道ABI值很低。但不知何故，我們看到商業房地產連續兩個季度成長。高等教育和 K-12 教育都比較薄弱，無論是商業暖通空調還是輕型商業領域都是如此。

Actually, I believe that in Q3, within CSA Americas for commercial, the non-data center orders were actually up year-over-year. It's the data centers that were down given the lumpiness.

實際上，我認為在第三季度，CSA 美洲商業領域的非資料中心訂單實際上比去年同期成長了。由於網路波動，導致資料中心宕機。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks as always for the details. Just on this resi, so you said you're getting mid-single-digit price this year. I guess when you think about the low-double-digit or whatever it was for the price mix, I guess, how much was mix and how much was price? I know there's like in the beginning, you were getting a bit more price than mix. But how does that break out in resi for the third quarter?

嘿。各位早安。一如既往，感謝您提供詳細資訊。就這套住宅而言，你說你今年能拿到個位數的房價。我想，當你考慮到價格構成中較低的兩位數或其他數字時，你會想，其中有多少是構成因素，又有多少是價格因素呢？我知道一開始，價格可能比產品種類多。但第三季的住宅市場狀況如何呢？

Yeah. For 3Q, it would have been [3 and 8].

是的。對於第三季來說，情況本應是[3 和 8]。

Okay. Got it. That's super helpful. And then when you guys talk about the 30%, I guess, back to Julian's question, I think that includes Services. So I guess the applied business, if non-data center was -- or data center was up 250% and your applied was up 60%, that still implies that the -- just getting more specific, the applied CSA was up? Or was the applied -- you said it was a mixed bag. Was that actually up, the applied CSA equipment?

好的。知道了。這太有幫助了。然後，當你們談到那 30% 的時候，我想，回到 Julian 的問題，我認為這包括服務業。所以我想，如果非資料中心業務成長了 250%，而應用程式成長了 60%，那麼更具體地說，應用 CSA 成長了？或者說，應用效果——你說效果好壞參半。CSA設備真的安裝好了嗎？

I'm sorry I was just saying the mixed bag was around which verticals were strong and which wasn't. When we look at total CHVAC in the Americas was up 30%. The applied business, the equipment was up 60%, aftermarket was up mid-teens, and the controls business was up a little over 20%.

抱歉，我只是想說，情況比較複雜，主要體現在哪些垂直領域表現強勁，哪些表現不佳。當我們查看美洲地區的中央空調總銷量時，發現銷量增加了 30%。在應用業務方面，設備業務成長了 60%，售後市場成長了 15% 左右，控制業務成長了 20% 以上。

Okay. So that still implies the non-DC applied equipment was still up in the quarter?

好的。所以這是否仍然意味著本季非直流應用設備仍然處於運作狀態？

Yes, up in the low-teens.

是的，接近十幾。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫。

Thanks. Good morning. Just a quick one on the Data Center backlog, Dave. I think you've mentioned you needed to build that backlog to grow in '26. I just want to make sure that the $0.9 billion of backlog you're expecting at the end of this year is where you expect to be for 2026, and then, therefore, we should see nice growth next year? And can you just confirm that we're still on track for about $1.1 billion of revenues this year?

謝謝。早安.戴夫，關於資料中心積壓的工作，我簡單提一下。我想你之前提到過，你需要累積一些積壓訂單才能在 2026 年成長。我只是想確認一下，您預計今年年底的 9 億美元積壓訂單是否與您預計 2026 年的積壓訂單數相同，如果是，那麼我們明年應該會看到不錯的增長吧？您能否確認一下，我們今年的營收目標仍有望達到約 11 億美元？

Yeah. I would say $1 billion for this year, Nigel, in revenue.

是的。奈傑爾，我估計今年營收將達到10億美元。

It was always $1 billion.

一直都是10億美元。

Always $1 billion. So it was $1 billion, still is $1 billion. And I will tell you, in terms of -- we just discussed Data Center orders in 3Q, and we also mentioned that we've gotten really strong orders here in October. So I've been very pleased.

始終保持在10億美元。所以當時是10億美元，現在還是10億美元。我還要告訴你們，就我們剛才討論的第三季資料中心訂單而言，我們也提到我們在10月份獲得了非常強勁的訂單。所以我很滿意。

We wanted to go into next year with a backlog that was higher than the backlog, of course, that we had coming into this year. This year, we came in with around $700 million in backlog for the year. Obviously, the total backlog is much higher. I'm talking about backlog just for deliveries in that following year.

當然，我們希望明年年初的訂單積壓量能比今年年初的訂單積壓量更高。今年，我們的年度積壓訂單金額約為 7 億美元。顯然，積壓的總工作量要高得多。我指的是下一年的訂單積壓情況。

So we came in with $700 million for this year, and we'll do about $1 billion. We wanted to end close to $900 million, so we could drive nice growth for next year. And we're on track to end with backlog in that $900 million range. We're a little bit north of $700 million today. We got a lot of very strong irons in the fire.

所以我們今年投入了 7 億美元，最終目標是達到 10 億美元左右。我們希望最終營收接近 9 億美元，這樣才能在明年實​​現良好的成長。我們預計最終將實現9億美元的訂單積壓。今天我們略高於7億美元。我們同時在進行很多非常重要的專案。

And there's just a lot of exciting activity. Frankly, I just got back late last night from Tokyo. So we were over there. We've been working with our Japanese host. We've been working with the administration, had a number of meetings yesterday with Secretary Lutnick.

這裡有很多精彩的活動。坦白說，我昨晚很晚才從東京回來。所以我們就去了那邊。我們一直在與日本東道主合作。我們一直在與政府部門合作，昨天也與盧特尼克部長舉行了多次會議。

So we signed -- this morning, we had one of my colleagues, Michael Gierges was over there signing an MOU. There's going to be investments here in the Americas for infrastructure and data centers. So we're continuing to push every angle with hyperscalers, colos, and some of the unique opportunities that are out there, and we feel very well positioned for continued growth in this space as we go into next year.

所以今天早上我們簽了約——我的同事邁克爾·吉爾格斯在那邊簽署了一份諒解備忘錄。美洲地區將會有基礎設施和資料中心的投資。因此，我們正繼續從各個角度與超大規模資料中心、託管資料中心以及一些獨特的機會進行合作，我們感覺自己已經做好充分準備，迎接明年在這個領域的持續成長。

Okay. You sound surprisingly fresh considering you just got back from Japan. But in terms of the movement numbers you just threw out, incredibly weak. So I understand channel inventory is expected to be down to 2019 levels by the year-end. But I'm just wondering with end demand this week, is that enough channel burn? Are you confident that we are going to move into 2026 on a clean slate?

好的。考慮到你剛從日本回來，你的聲音聽起來精神煥發得令人驚訝。但就你剛才提到的那些行動數據而言，簡直是弱爆了。據我了解，渠道庫存預計到年底將降至 2019 年的水準。但我只是在想，以本週的最終需求來看，這樣的通路消耗量是否足夠？你確信我們能夠以全新的面貌邁入2026年嗎？

I am about as confident as we can be with the soft movement market that we've been over these last few months and continue to be in. So we've tried to plan 4Q in a way to avoid surprises like we had in 3Q. So 4Q and 3Q, we've assumed are effectively the same with total sales down about 30% movement down -- I mean, volume down about 40%.

對於過去幾個月來我們所處的溫和市場走勢，以及未來將繼續保持的這種趨勢，我感到非常有信心。因此，我們努力規劃第四季度，以避免像第三季度那樣出現意外情況。因此，我們假設第四季和第三季基本上相同，總銷售額下降約 30%，銷量下降約 40%。

And we've tried to handicap movement continuing to be weak throughout the rest of the year. And that is even with a price increase that will become effective in January. So we're working very hard with our distribution partners, so when we wake up in January, we're not talking about further destocking.

我們試圖預測今年剩餘時間裡，市場走勢將持續疲軟。即使價格將於1月上漲，情況依然如此。因此，我們正在與分銷合作夥伴密切合作，爭取在1月醒來時，不會再討論進一步減少庫存的問題。

Obviously, we are going to see -- we can't have movement stay at these levels forever. We will have a little bit of year-over-year compare issues as we get into 1Q, and that lightens, of course, as we go into 2Q and through the year. But even with a bit of a rebound on movement, we think we'll be very, very right sized on field inventory levels starting in January.

顯然，我們會看到——我們不可能讓價格永遠保持在目前的水平。進入第一季後，我們會面臨一些同比比較問題，當然，隨著進入第二季度以及全年，這種情況會逐漸緩解。但即便市場出現一些反彈，我們認為從 1 月開始，我們的現場庫存水準將非常非常合適。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛集團。

So look, I really appreciate all the color you've given already on 2026. I'm trying to really understand like the interplay between your own inventories, organic growth, and margins in the early part of the year, because typically, you guys build inventory from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

所以，我真的很欣賞你們為 2026 年帶來的所有精彩色彩。我正在努力了解你們年初的庫存、自然成長和利潤率之間的相互作用，因為通常情況下，你們會在第四季到第一季之間建立庫存。

Are we to assume that that does not happen in 2026? And then how do we think about like the decremental margins associated with the early part of the year given you guys do have tough comps and you have elevated inventory levels on your own balance sheet?

我們是否可以假設這種情況在 2026 年不會發生？那麼，考慮到你們面臨嚴峻的業績比較形勢，而且你們自身的資產負債表上庫存水準也較高，我們該如何看待年初利潤率下降的問題呢？

Okay. Joe, let me start and then turn it over to Patrick. Let me tell you how we're dealing operations, because we saw such a sudden and extreme shift in our forecast and our demand. So as we think about 4Q, we fundamentally had a decision to make. We frankly could have stopped production in a couple of our key lines and, frankly, sites. And we decided to keep them going.

好的。喬，我先開始，然後交給派崔克。讓我來告訴你們我們是如何應對營運的，因為我們的預測和需求出現瞭如此突然和極端的變化。因此，當我們展望第四季時，我們實際上面臨著一個需要做出的決定。坦白說，我們本來可以停止幾條關鍵生產線和幾個生產基地的生產。於是我們決定繼續下去。

A cold start is very, very difficult for operations. You'd have to have a drastic reduction in headcount, then you're suddenly hiring as you start to gear up for the season. So we've kept operations going in places like Tennessee and Monterrey at very low levels, but continued levels.

冷啟動對操作來說非常非常困難。你必須大幅削減員工人數，然後在為旺季做準備時突然開始招募。因此，我們在田納西州和蒙特雷等地保持了低水準但持續的運作。

So what that means for us is we've had a big absorption hit as we've gone 3Q into 4Q. We've seen some of our inventory levels a little bit higher than we'd like. We're pretty disciplined on working capital, but we've purposely made that trade-off to keep operations going, which means as we get into the season in the March time frame, we won't have as big a ramp in production, which might have a slight impact on absorption as we get in towards the end of 1Q. But I don't think anything major there, but we won't have the usual significant ramp as we get into season. Patrick?

所以對我們來說，這意味著從第三季度到第四季度，我們的吸收能力受到了極大的打擊。我們發現部分庫存水準略高於預期。我們在營運資金方面相當自律，但我們特意做出了這樣的權衡以維持運營，這意味著隨著我們在三月份進入旺季，我們的產量不會像之前那樣大幅提升，這可能會對我們在第一季度末的消化產生輕微影響。但我認為不會有什麼大問題，只是隨著賽季的到來，我們不會像往常那樣出現顯著的成長。派崔克？

And then just on the incrementals or decrementals in Q1, Joe, the first quarter of this year, CSA, which had very strong resi volume, and of course, we had significant production levels as well. Our incrementals were 69%. And so clearly, it's going to be a tough comp. And I would expect the decrementals in Q1 on the resi side to be similar to what we're seeing in Q3 and Q4.

然後，就第一季的增量或減量而言，喬，今年第一季度，CSA 的住宅銷售非常強勁，當然，我們的生產水平也很高。我們的增量為 69%。所以很明顯，這將是一場艱難的比賽。我預計第一季住宅方面的降幅將與我們在第三季和第四季看到的情況類似。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my quick follow-up. You've given the accretion from the buyback. Like any thoughts just given the weakness in the stock this year, like any thoughts on an accelerated share repurchase program?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後是我的快速後續。你已經考慮了回購帶來的效益。鑑於今年股價疲軟，大家有什麼想法嗎？例如，有沒有考慮過加速股票回購計畫？

At this point, Joe, we're focused on repurchasing about $3 billion for this year. And then the new authorization, our expectation is that it will take us into 2028, but nothing I can share at this point in terms of ASR.

喬，目前我們的目標是今年回購約 30 億美元的股票。至於新的授權，我們預計它將持續到 2028 年，但就 ASR 而言，目前我還不能透露任何資訊。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安德魯‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Dave, can you give a little more color into RLC Europe and what you think is going on over there? I think you recently said that the German heating market could bottom at 600,000 units.

Dave，你能再詳細介紹一下 RLC 歐洲的情況以及你認為那裡正在發生的事情嗎？我記得你最近說過，德國暖氣市場銷售可能在60萬台左右觸底。

And the obvious drag on your results has been boilers. So maybe just how you see that market playing out in '26? What's the conviction level that we will mark a bottom this year? And maybe you can elaborate on what you're doing to get the margin up in that segment?

而對你們的業績造成明顯拖累的顯然是鍋爐。那麼，您認為2026年這個市場會如何發展呢？我們有多大把握認為今年會觸底反彈？或許您可以詳細說明一下，為了提高該細分市場的利潤率，您採取了哪些措施？

Yeah. Let me do the first one first. I think it's a bit of a fool's errand to call a bottom. But I will say that we saw such strong growth in 2022, so the market there has just taken a whole lot of medicine since. So the market this year, we thought would be closer to [$650,000] or so.

是的。讓我先做第一個。我認為現在斷言價格觸底有點徒勞。但我想說的是，我們在 2022 年看到瞭如此強勁的成長，所以從那以後，那裡的市場已經經歷了大量的調整。所以我們認為今年的市場價格會接近 65 萬美元左右。

It's going to end up being in that [$600,000] range. I'm talking about Germany specifically. So it does feel like when you look at any kind of chart over the last 40 years, the German market does seem to be getting to historic lows and prepared for some level of recovery.

最終成交價應該會在 60 萬美元左右。我指的是德國。因此，縱觀過去 40 年的任何圖表，德國市場似乎都已跌至歷史低點，並準備迎接一定程度的復甦。

Now, in Europe versus the United States, United States is almost all replacement. In Europe, you will see some planned replacement and a lot of that has been put on hold waiting for some things to settle out. The new German government is having more fiscal stimulus, which is positive. We'll see what happens with the heating law and subsidy levels, probably a little bit more clarity as we get into the end of this year into early next year.

現在，在歐洲和美國之間，美國幾乎完全是替換型的。在歐洲，你會看到一些計劃中的替換項目，但很多項目都被擱置了，等待一些事情塵埃落定。德國新政府正在推行更多財政刺激措施，這是好事。我們將拭目以待暖氣法和補貼水準的變動，或許到今年年底到明年年初情況會更加明朗一些。

The good news is that if you look at the ratio in Germany between heat pumps and boilers, it's almost getting closer to parity. So in terms of what we saw this year with a big decline in boilers in the 30% range, and a very unique thing around very expensive floor standing boilers, which we don't expect to be talking about again next year, we do think that if we can continue, which we expect to see that strong growth in heat pumps, remember, we're seeing subsidy levels up 2x this year versus last, about 300,000 subsidy applications; and we see a little bit more muted decline in the boilers, Germany should be poised for strength as we go into 2026.

好消息是，如果你看一下德國熱泵和鍋爐的比例，你會發現它們幾乎已經接近持平了。所以，就我們今年所看到的鍋爐銷量大幅下降（降幅達 30% 左右）以及價格昂貴的落地式鍋爐這一非常特殊的現象（我們預計明年不會再討論這個問題）而言，我們認為，如果我們能夠繼續保持熱泵的強勁增長勢頭（我們預計熱泵將保持強勁增長），請記住，我們看到今年的補貼水平是去年的兩倍2026 年時應該能夠保持強勁勢頭。

And then you've seen a mixed bag outside of Germany. Certain countries like France and Poland were weak. We saw strength in places like UK and even Italy was a little bit better than we had thought. So I think throughout Europe, we see continued heat pump adoption.

然後，在德國以外的地方，情況就比較複雜了。法國和波蘭等一些國家實力較弱。我們看到英國等地的經濟實力強勁，甚至義大利的情況也比我們預想的要好一些。所以我認為在整個歐洲，我們都會看到熱泵的持續普及。

We see really good traction on our initiatives, things like air conditioning sales and some of the system level sales. And we're just going to have to watch the market dynamics, but we've taken a lot of medicine over the last couple of years. So hopefully, we've seen bottom.

我們看到我們的各項措施都取得了非常好的成效，例如空調銷售和一些系統級銷售。我們只能密切關注市場動態，但過去幾年我們一直在努力應對。所以，希望我們已經觸底了。

And then, Andy, very quickly on the cost out in Europe. As Dave mentioned earlier, about 3,000 positions, overhead positions that we're in the process of taking out. Of that, about half of that is in European segment in CS Europe.

然後，安迪很快就談到了歐洲的成本。正如戴夫之前提到的，大約有 3000 個頭寸，我們正在逐步移除這些頭寸。其中約一半來自 CS Europe 的歐洲市場。

Thanks for that, guys. And then I think you had suggested recently that CSAME and CST would return to organic growth in Q3. And while transportation did, CSAME still lagged a little bit. Can you give more color into the outlook? Is that just China still being sluggish?

謝謝各位。然後，我想你最近曾表示，CSAME 和 CST 將在第三季恢復內生成長。雖然交通運輸方面有所改進，但 CSAME 仍略顯滯後。能否為畫面增添更多色彩？難道中國依然行動遲緩嗎？

That is really China, Andy. And it goes back to resi, China. And so it's not on the commercial side. The one thing we're doing in China as well, and that's going to carry over a little bit in Q4 and so embedded in our guide, is we are also looking at the field inventories in our China residential business. They have been somewhat elevated, and we are in the process -- our team over there is in the process of working with our partners there to reduce the inventory levels in the field there as well.

安迪，那才是真正的中國。而這一切要追溯到中國的住宅區。所以，這與商業無關。我們在中國也在做一件事，這件事也會在第四季度延續，因此也體現在我們的指導方針中，那就是我們也在關注中國住宅業務的現場庫存。它們的庫存水平有所上升，我們正在努力——我們那邊的團隊正在與我們的合作夥伴一起努力，以降低當地的庫存水平。

Deane Dray, Royal Bank of Canada.

迪恩·德雷，加拿大皇家銀行。

I was hoping to circle back on the destocking. And Dave, if you could put some of this into context, most of these decisions on the destocking are being made by your independent dealers. So I know -- if you could just kind of collectively, their mindset in being aggressively taking inventory down to eight-year lows.

我原本希望能夠重新討論一下清倉事宜。戴夫，如果你能解釋一下背景，這些關於減少庫存的決定大多是由你們的獨立經銷商做出的。所以我知道——如果你能從整體上理解他們的心態，那就是積極地將庫存降至八年來的最低水準。

And then once this is done, is there a risk that just you get a normal seasonal demand in the spring, a couple of hot days, and then we'll be back talking about inventory shortages? And just how quickly can it ramp up, assuming normalized demand in the spring?

然後，一旦這一切完成，是否存在這樣的風險：春季出現正常的季節性需求，幾天高溫天氣後，我們又會回到討論庫存短缺的問題？假設春季需求恢復正常，那麼產能究竟能以多快的速度提升呢？

Well, look, Deane, that would be a tremendous problem to have. What we have learned about this business is that it is very short cycle, and you can see sudden swings. And you can see sudden swings for a whole bunch of variables.

迪恩，你看，那真是個大問題。我們從這個行業中了解到，它的週期非常短，而且經常會出現突然的波動。你可以看到很多變數都出現了突然的波動。

So I will say that we've looked hard at our forecasting model, too. That we had a model that's withstood the test of time in a short-cycle business over many, many years, but it clearly failed us over the past five months or so.

所以我想說，我們也認真研究過我們的預測模型。我們曾經擁有一個在短週期商業環境中經受住了多年考驗的模式，但在過去五個月左右的時間裡，它顯然讓我們失望了。

So we've looked at it. We're using AI to see if we can get more correlations between certain variables, so we can have a bit better -- it's going to take a couple of quarters to figure out whether the new forecasting tool has some better correlation to some of these variables.

我們已經研究過了。我們正在使用人工智慧來查看是否可以獲得更多變數之間的相關性，以便我們能夠做得更好——需要幾個季度的時間才能弄清楚新的預測工具是否與其中一些變數有更好的相關性。

But having said that, I do think that our independent distributors are being very clear-eyed about making sure that they start the year with inventory levels that they feel are balanced. And we're working very closely with them, distributor by distributor, to make sure that they have what they feel they need, but not a single unit more than what they need.

但話雖如此，我認為我們的獨立經銷商在確保年初庫存水準保持平衡方面，態度非常清醒。我們與他們密切合作，逐一與經銷商溝通，確保他們擁有他們認為需要的商品，但不會多買一件。

Could we see a nice influx of orders as we get into the spring, driven by whether it's weather or by consumer sentiment, or by a rebound in new home construction? For sure. But right now, as we think about our own internal forecasting and, quite honestly, our external forecasting, you'll see us err on the side of conservatism.

隨著春季的到來，我們是否會看到訂單量大幅增長，這可能是由於天氣、消費者情緒或新房屋建設的反彈所致？一定。但就目前而言，當我們考慮我們自己的內部預測，坦白說，也考慮我們的外部預測時，你會發現我們傾向於保守主義。

Understood. And then as a follow-up, the discussion about applied, we see vertical -- if you take us through the verticals, you said they were mixed. Obviously, Data Center is at the top but just take us through the rest of them. And anything on the government slowdown, project pushouts, delays, anything you would comment there?

明白了。然後，作為後續討論，關於應用領域，我們看到垂直領域——如果你帶我們了解垂直領域，你說它們是混合的。顯然，資料中心位居榜首，但請您介紹其他部分。關於政府工作效率降低、專案延期、延誤等問題，您有什麼評論嗎？

Yeah. I'd say on the second part of your question, Deane, I'd say the only real impact we've seen on the government shutdown has -- we've seen it a bit in our light commercial business. That business is weaker than we thought going into 4Q. We thought 4Q would be flattish. We're now saying down about 15%.

是的。關於你問題的第二部分，迪恩，我想說，我們看到的政府停擺的唯一真正影響是——我們在輕型商業業務中已經略有感受到。進入第四季時，該業務的狀況比我們預想的還要糟糕。我們原本以為第四季業績會比較平穩。我們現在說下降了大約 15%。

And part of it is, even though rates seem to be coming down a bit for some of the small businesses, they've been a little bit limited on lending and credit. And some of that is loans processed by the SBA have been put on hold. So that's the one area with the shutdown that we've seen that we can directly correlate to a business has probably been in our light commercial business.

部分原因是，儘管一些小型企業的利率似乎有所下降，但他們在貸款和信貸方面仍然受到一些限制。其中一些由美國小型企業管理局 (SBA) 處理的貸款已被暫停。所以，我們看到，停工對企業的影響可以直接歸因於輕型商業業務。

I would say, overall, the verticals of strength vary by region a bit. Like, for example, in most parts of the world, healthcare has been very, very strong. And it's gotten a little bit weak over the last quarter in China. In China, renewables has been weak.

總的來說，我認為各地區的垂直力量水平略有不同。例如，在世界大部分地區，醫療保健都非常非常強大。過去一個季度，中國市場表現略顯疲軟。在中國，再生能源發展較為薄弱。

But I would say if you're looking for trends globally, number one, two, and three is data centers. That is strong in the Americas, and it's very strong globally. We're seeing pockets of strength in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. We're winning orders in India.

但我認為，如果你要在全球範圍內尋找趨勢，那麼排名第一、第二和第三的都是資料中心。這種情況在美洲很普遍，在全球範圍內也很普遍。我們看到中東和東南亞地區出現了一些強勁的成長勢頭。我們在印度贏得了不少訂單。

We have our sales folks in China diverting from projects they had been on, focused, clearly, on data centers. A lot of industrial production has been strong globally, including reshoring in the United States, some of the mega projects. Retail has been a mixed bag, but that's been an area of strength.

我們中國的銷售人員已經將他們原本專注於的專案轉移到了資料中心領域。全球許多工業生產表現強勁，包括美國製造業回流以及一些大型計畫。零售業表現喜憂參半，但一直是我們的優勢領域。

Education through K-12 is generally weak globally, certainly here in the United States. And another area that you'll be hearing us talk a lot more about is mods and upgrades. So where we see limited new construction and commercial real estate in key parts of the world and especially in some very dense populations in certain cities, we're very, very focused on modifications and upgrades. So that's a whole new vector for us. We've been at it for a while, but we're doubling down on that area as well right now.

全球範圍內，K-12教育普遍薄弱，美國的情況尤其如此。另一個我們會談論更多的領域是改裝和升級。因此，在世界一些關鍵地區，尤其是在某些城市人口非常密集的地區，我們看到新建建築和商業房地產有限，所以我們非常非常注重改造和升級。所以這對我們來說是一個全新的方向。我們已經在這個領域耕耘了一段時間，但現在我們正在加倍投入。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Just a question on magnetic bearing chillers. Just where is the industry capacity? Where are you? Because our channel checks are picking up that, overall, the industry was a bit too successful in getting orders, and there's not a lot of capacity out there. So what's your ability to take market share? Or do you need to add capacity yourselves?

關於磁浮式冷水機，我有個問題。產業產能究竟在哪裡？你在哪裡？因為我們的通路檢查發現，總體而言，該行業在獲取訂單方面有點過於成功，而市場上的產能卻不足。那麼，你們的市佔率取得能力如何？還是你們需要自行增加產能？

We're in great shape, Andrew. And it's been very purposeful. We've built a whole new facility in North America. We've expanded the existing facility that we have in Charlotte. So if you look at our capacity, just since 2023 in North America, our capacity for water cool chillers is up 4x.Total chillers, when you include air cooled, is up 3x.

安德魯，我們狀態很好。而且這是有目的的。我們在北美新建了一座全新的工廠。我們擴建了位於夏洛特的現有設施。因此，如果你看一下我們的產能，光是從 2023 年到現在，我們在北美的水冷式冷水機組產能就成長了 4 倍。如果把風冷式冰水機組也算在內，總冰水機組產能增加了 3 倍。

And I think, look, that's been contributing to a lot of the share gains that we've seen on commercial HVAC. Some tremendous wins on the Data Center side. I could not be more proud of the team. And part of it is having the capacity now, and we have a lot more capacity to go -- not capacity to go, we have a lot more capacity to continue to grow without further investments.

我認為，這正是我們在商用暖通空調領域取得市佔率成長的主要原因。資料中心方面取得了一些巨大的勝利。我為這支團隊感到無比自豪。一部分原因是我們現在具備這樣的能力，而且我們還有更大的發展潛力——不是發展潛力，而是我們還有更大的發展潛力，無需進一步投資即可繼續成長。

And part of it is the way we're interfacing with our customers. We said to our team and we said to our customers, if you have confidence in us, we will never let you down. We will track deliveries by the hour. We'll make sure that we're always there for you, not only on the delivery side, but technically, in terms of installation, in terms of start-up. So a lot of our orders are coming from customers that we've proven that we are in their corner.

部分原因在於我們與客戶的溝通方式。我們對團隊和客戶都說，如果你們信任我們，我們永遠不會讓你們失望。我們將按小時追蹤貨物交付情況。我們將確保始終為您提供支持，不僅在交付方面，而且在技術方面，例如安裝和啟動方面。因此，我們的許多訂單都來自那些我們已經證明我們會站在他們這邊的客戶。

And then part of it is the investments that we've made in the technical portfolio. We have a new air-cooled chiller that has mag bearings. That's coming out right now. Huge interest from our data center customers. So a lot of great wins and the investments that we've made over the last 24 months in the additional capacity are paying off.

一部分原因是我們對科技組合的投資。我們新購置了一台採用磁力軸承的風冷式冷水機。馬上就要發布了。我們資料中心的客戶對此表現出了極大的興趣。因此，過去 24 個月我們在額外產能方面取得的許多重大勝利和投資都獲得了回報。

We don't need any more CapEx. We may do a little bit more in certain countries where that's a part of the win process, and we'll see how that plays out. But right now, we're very -- we're well set in North America.

我們不需要更多的資本支出。在某些國家，如果這是取勝過程的一部分，我們可能會做得更多，看看結果如何。但就目前而言，我們在北美市場非常穩固。

Thank you. And just a little bit more pace on resi coming back in '26. Should we be saying first -- because you said flat to slightly up, so should we be saying Q1 down and then it gets positive after second quarter? Or is it first half, second half story?

謝謝。2026 年回歸時，速度會再加快一些。我們應該說第一季——因為你說的是持平或略有上升，所以我們是否應該說第一季下降，然後第二季之後轉正？或者說，這是一個分為前半部和後半部的故事？

Clearly, the first half will be very difficult given the very strong first half we had this year. And so I think it's fair to say that we would expect resi first half, especially Q1 to be down year-over-year from a volume perspective.

顯然，鑑於我們今年上半年的出色表現，下半年將會非常艱難。因此，我認為可以合理地預測，上半年住宅銷售，尤其是第一季度，從銷售來看將比去年同期下降。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. I wanted to ask about America's margins into next year. It seems like the guide, if my math is right, puts Q4 at maybe a low-double-digit to low-teens exit rate. And if the company is, I guess, effectively underproducing to maybe about Q2 of next year, I would think the absorption headwinds drag through maybe around midyear. I guess, should we expect America's margins down next year, just given how hard these first half comps are even if the segment can collectively grow in '26? Thank you.

謝謝。我想了解美國明年的經濟利潤狀況。如果我沒算錯的話，這份指南似乎預測第四季的離職率可能在兩位數到十幾之間。如果該公司預計到明年第二季左右產量將低於預期，那麼我認為銷售吸收的不利因素可能會持續到年中左右。我想，考慮到今年上半年的年比數據如此糟糕，即使該細分市場在 2026 年整體能夠成長，我們是否應該預期美國市場的利潤率明年會下降？謝謝。

Obviously, quite early to comment on 2026 margins, but I think that CSA margin this year will be around 21% or so. Unless for some reason resi would be significantly down next year, which we, at this point, do not expect, I would not expect the CSA margins to be down next year. Actually, I would expect them to be up.

顯然，現在評論 2026 年的利潤率還為時過早，但我認為今年 CSA 的利潤率將在 21% 左右。除非明年住宅價格大幅下降（目前我們預計不會出現這種情況），否則我不認為明年 CSA 的利潤率會下降。實際上，我預計它們應該已經開機了。

Thank you. I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up on the price. I think you guys said expect low-single-digit realization on fresh '26 price. I guess how do you think about balancing the need to cover cost inflation, which is still evident, versus just potential demand destruction?

謝謝。我很感激。最後再問一下價格問題。我想你們說過，預計 2026 年新款車型的實際售價將只有個位數。我想問的是，您如何看待平衡成本上漲（目前成本上漲依然明顯）與潛在的需求萎縮之間的關係？

We have seen these price increases get multiplied as they work their way through the channel and on to the homeowner. And I think the risk would be that this just keeps the market in repair mode for longer. Any thoughts on how you guys balance that as an industry even? Thank you.

我們看到，這些價格上漲在透過銷售管道最終到達房主手中時，會倍增。我認為風險在於，這只會讓市場更長時間處於修復狀態。你們產業內有沒有辦法平衡這兩者之間的關係？謝謝。

I think it will be important for us next year. And Dave mentioned that we expect to announce a price increase. We do expect to realize low-single-digit price next year. Input costs are going up.

我認為這對我們明年來說很重要。戴夫提到，我們預計將宣布漲價。我們預計明年價格將降至個位數低點。投入成本正在上漲。

And of course, we haven't spoken about this yet, but should there be any additional tariffs, this might impact the requirement -- the need to further adjust pricing. And so we certainly expect to realize additional pricing next year, though it will be much more modest, of course, absent any additional new tariffs. And I think --

當然，我們還沒有討論過這個問題，但如果增加關稅，這可能會影響到進一步調整價格的需求。因此，我們當然預計明年價格會有所上漲，但當然，如果沒有新的關稅，漲幅會小得多。我覺得--

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we do watch the elasticity curves. So we are sensitive to not taking actions that drive that dynamic between replace and repair and we'll continue to watch our curves. But even watching those quite carefully, we're confident we'll get some level of price next year, albeit more modest than this year.

我們會關注彈性曲線。因此，我們非常重視避免採取任何會加劇更換和維修之間這種動態關係的行動，我們將繼續關注我們的曲線。但即便我們非常仔細地觀察這些情況，我們仍然有信心明年能獲得一定程度的價格，儘管會比今年低一些。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Can we just start with CST? Orders were up pretty significantly. Do you think we're starting to see this market rebound off the bottom? Or is it more about just easier prior year comps?

我們能先從中部標準時間（CST）開始嗎？訂單量大幅成長。你認為我們是否開始看到市場從底層反彈了？或者說，這更多是因為往年比較難度較低？

I would say on the good side, the container business has been tremendous. I mean, up 50% in the quarter. The year is going to be very strong, probably up 30%. And that's been share gains. It's been share gains the right way through our new product introductions. So that has been just a very, very good news story for us.

從好的方面來說，貨櫃業務發展非常迅速。我的意思是，本季成長了 50%。今年將會非常強勁，可能會成長30%。這就是市場佔有率的成長。我們透過推出新產品，以正確的方式贏得了市場份額。所以這對我們來說真是個非常好的消息。

It's hard to say with the North American Truck/Trailer business. We've seen -- we expect that to have some good growth here in the fourth quarter. It was flattish in the fourth quarter. So the trends there are right, but it's too early to call a strong rebound, but we are seeing it move in the right direction.

北美卡車/拖車行業的情況很難說。我們已經看到——我們預計第四季度這裡會有一些不錯的成長。第四節比賽比較平淡。所以，目前的趨勢是正確的，但現在就斷言會出現強勁反彈還為時過早，不過我們看到它正朝著正確的方向發展。

And I would say European Truck/Trailer was a little bit down. It was down a few percent in Q3. It will be down another couple of percent here in Q4. So I think of it similar to some of our resi businesses. Truck/Trailer, we're number one player, very good margins, very well positioned.

我認為歐洲卡車/拖車市場略有下滑。第三季下降了幾個百分點。第四季還會再下降幾個百分點。所以我覺得它和我們的一些住宅業務類似。卡車/拖車領域，我們是業界第一，利潤率很高，市場地位非常穩固。

So as these markets, which have been a little bit depressed in Europe and the Americas, as they start to come back, and it's not clear exactly when, but as they start to come back over these next couple of quarters, that will drop through very well.

因此，隨著歐洲和美洲這些一度低迷的市場開始復甦（雖然還不清楚具體時間），但隨著它們在接下來的幾個季度開始復蘇，這種情況將會得到很好的緩解。

Okay. Got it. And then can we just talk about Europe commercial as well? I think it was down mid-single-digits in the quarter, and you had expected something a bit better than that. Orders were also down a bit. Can we just unpack what's going on there? Is this more of a comp issue as well?

好的。知道了。那我們能不能也談談歐洲的商業狀況呢？我認為該季度下降了個位數百分比，而你原本期望情況會好一些。訂單量也略為下降。我們能詳細分析一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎？這是否也屬於薪資問題？

Yeah. I'd say it's -- I honestly would call it more of a timing issue than much of anything else. We see that even though orders weren't even great, orders tend to be lumpy, especially when we're pursuing some key data center customers.

是的。我覺得──老實說，我覺得這更多的是時機問題，而不是其他問題。我們發現，即使訂單量並不大，訂單也往往呈現波動性，尤其是當我們爭取一些重要的資料中心客戶時。

I think that this quarter, we'll be up double-digits. Internally, we're shooting for a fairly strong number, but it should be up double-digits here in Q4. We expect to have good backlog going into next year. The Data Center pursuits have been very strong.

我認為本季我們將實現兩位數的成長。內部目標是實現相當強勁的成長，第四季應該能達到兩位數的成長。我們預計明年將有充足的訂單儲備。資料中心領域的投資力道非常強勁。

There's a couple of unique things happening where, for example, in Q3, our rentals business was down more than 20% with year-over-year comparison with the Olympics in Paris. So there are some things at the margin within the factories and within aftermarket. But overall, demand very strong, team very well poised for double-digit growth, and we expect very strong growth in this space for next year as well.

發生了一些特殊情況，例如，第三季度，由於巴黎奧運會，我們的租賃業務比去年同期下降了 20% 以上。所以，在工廠內部和售後市場中，都存在一些邊緣問題。但總體而言，市場需求非常強勁，團隊已做好充分準備實現兩位數成長，我們預計明年該領域也將保持強勁成長。

Amit Merhotra, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Amit Merhotra。

Thanks, operator. Hi, everybody. Maybe just a couple of quick ones for me. One is, not to beat a dead horse on pricing, but any movement on pricing related to tariffs over the course of the year? I know you guys took a price increase on May 1.

謝謝接線生。大家好。可能就我而言，就做幾個簡單的。其一，雖然不想老生常談價格問題，但今年以來與關稅相關的價格是否有任何變動？我知道你們在5月1日漲價了。

Pricing discipline, obviously, very strong, so no questions there. But just with respect to any movement related to tariffs specifically vis-a-vis rebates or anything like that, just given how tariffs have evolved over the course of the year?

定價紀律顯然非常嚴格，所以這方面沒有問題。但就與關稅相關的任何變動，特別是與退稅或其他類似措施相關的變動，考慮到關稅在過去一年中的變化？

Yes, Amit, good memory. We implemented incremental pricing earlier this year related to some of the new tariffs. That was at the time of our Q1 earnings. We said it was about -- it would require about $300 million of incremental pricing. We updated that back in July.

是的，阿米特，記憶力真好。今年早些時候，我們針對一些新關稅實施了階梯式定價。那是在我們發布第一季財報的時候。我們說過，這大約需要——需要大約 3 億美元的增量定價。我們在七月更新過。

With some of the additional actions we were taking, the pricing requirement was only closer to $200 million this year to offset tariffs. That number has not changed. So we're still in that $200 million range. And as I mentioned earlier, the carryover impact of tariffs, pricing, and the cost equation of that is expected to be net neutral in 2026 based on tariffs in place today.

由於我們採取了一些額外的措施，今年為抵銷關稅所需的定價成本僅接近 2 億美元。這個數字沒有改變。所以，我們還是在2億美元左右。正如我之前提到的，根據目前的關稅政策，預計到 2026 年，關稅、定價和成本方程式的結轉影響將淨值為中性。

Right. And then, Dave, just a quick follow-up. We're all trying to figure out the drivers of the weakness in residential HVAC this year and just a lot got thrown at the market this year, whether it was the prebuy, the slower -- shorter selling season, the refrigerant shortage, just a lot of stuff happened this year.

正確的。然後，戴夫，還有一個簡短的後續問題。我們都在努力找出今年住宅暖通空調市場疲軟的驅動因素，今年市場上湧現了許多因素，無論是預購潮、銷售淡季、冷媒短缺，今年發生了很多事情。

You made an interesting comment, I think, last month where you talked about a third of existing home sales translates to new HVAC shipments. It just seems like -- I understand that dynamic, but that number just seemed higher than I would have anticipated.

我認為你上個月發表了一個很有趣的評論，你談到現有房屋銷售的三分之一會轉化為新的暖通空調設備出貨量。只是感覺——我理解這種動態，但這個數字似乎比我預想的要高。

So as you think about your demand models and the input to those demand models, we're all trying to answer this question about what volume looks like next year. What are the main kind of levers you're watching from a leading indicator perspective that may inform how that market evolves?

因此，在思考需求模型以及這些需求模型的輸入時，我們都在試圖回答明年銷售會是什麼樣子這個問題。從領先指標的角度來看，您主要關注哪些可能影響市場走向的關鍵因素？

Yeah. Let me just start by clarifying that when people buy new homes, our experience is that usually 20% to 25% of the time, that results in a change to their HVAC system. So I think seeing the depressed new home construction, but also the sale of existing homes has been a double hit to demand.

是的。首先我想澄清一下，根據我們的經驗，當人們購買新房子時，通常有 20% 到 25% 的情況下，他們的 HVAC 系統會改變。所以我認為，新建房屋數量減少以及現有房屋銷售量下降，對需求造成了雙重打擊。

I think if you just step back and you think about resi as you go into next year, I would say the good news is that overall comps, this year will be down high-single-digits. As Patrick said, we have much easier comps in the second half than the first half. We are taking a lot of actions to get field inventory levels ending this year at a level where we feel like destocking should not be a further headwind as we go into next year.

我認為，如果你退後一步，展望明年的住宅市場，我會說好消息是，今年的整體房價將下降接近兩位數。正如帕特里克所說，下半場的比賽比上半場容易得多。我們正在採取很多措施，使今年的現場庫存水準達到我們認為明年去庫存不會再成為進一步阻力的水平。

On the positive side, interest rates, hopefully, will decline, and that should help both new home construction and the sale of existing homes, which, as we just discussed, does result in changes typically to HVAC systems 20% to 25% of the time. And I think those that have been opting to do some level of repair over replace, there will be pent-up demand there.

從積極的方面來看，利率有望下降，這應該有助於新建房屋和現有房屋的銷售，正如我們剛才討論的那樣，這通常會導致 20% 到 25% 的情況下暖通空調系統發生變化。我認為那些選擇進行一定程度維修而不是更換的人，將會面臨被壓抑的需求。

The things that we got to watch is we do have tough comps in the first quarter, perhaps a bit into 2Q as well. And it will all come down to the strength of the consumer, and it's just too early to say how that's going to play itself out. We won't get too much of a mix benefit next year. It's probably in the $20 million range or so.

我們要注意的是，第一季我們會遇到一些比較艱難的比賽，第二季可能也會有一些比較艱難的比賽。最終一切都將取決於消費者的購買力，現在斷言結果如何還為時過早。明年我們不會獲得太多混合收益。大概在2000萬美元左右。

So it's going to come down. There's some reasons for optimism. There are some watch items, and we'll just have to see how next year plays out.

所以它終究會倒塌。有一些理由讓我們保持樂觀。有一些手錶相關的產品，至於明年情況如何，我們只能拭目以待了。

Thank you and let me just close by thanking you all for joining the call. And thanks to our 50,000 colleagues globally. This is a time where people are working extremely hard to control the controllables and support our customers.

謝謝大家，最後我也要感謝各位參加這通電話。感謝我們全球5萬位同事。在這個時期，大家都在盡力控制可控因素，並為我們的客戶提供支援。

And I could not be more proud of our team and how energized and how hard they're working to make sure that we provide best-in-class support to our customers. So thanks to all my colleagues, and thanks to all of our shareholders.

我為我們的團隊感到無比自豪，他們充滿活力，努力工作，確保我們為客戶提供一流的支援。所以，感謝我的所有同事，感謝我們所有的股東。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。再見。