開利公司 (CARR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我想介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Michael Rednor。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer. Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs amortization of acquired intangibles and certain significant nonrecurring items such as acquisition and divestiture-related costs. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有董事長兼執行長 David Gitlin 和財務長 Patrick Goris。除非另有說明，本公司將討論持續經營業績，不包括重組成本、收購無形資產的攤銷以及某些重大非經常性項目，例如收購和資產剝離相關成本。這些指標和其他非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings and Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. One additional note, as you probably saw in both the press release and webcast presentation this morning, we announced our revised reportable segments and segment profitability measures, so we will be speaking to financials on this basis going forward.

我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述具有風險和不確定性。Carrier 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件、10-K 表以及 10-Q 表季度報告詳細說明了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素。另外需要注意的是，正如您可能在今天早上的新聞稿和網路廣播演示中看到的那樣，我們宣布了修訂後的報告分部和分部盈利指標，因此我們將在此基礎上討論財務狀況。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by thanking our 50,000 teammates for delivering another strong quarter. I'd also like to welcome Michael Gerges to our team. He is leading our Climate Solutions segment in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa region, and we are thrilled to have him on board.

謝謝，麥克，大家早安。首先，我要感謝我們 50,000 名隊友又一個強勁的季度。我也歡迎 Michael Gerges 加入我們的團隊。他領導著我們亞太、中東和非洲地區的氣候解決方案部門，我們很高興他能加入我們。

So a strong and better-than-expected start to the year. Orders were up high single digits with double-digit orders growth in Climate Solutions, Europe and Transportation. Within Climate Solutions America, sales in both residential and commercial were up about 20% each, more than offsetting weakness in light commercial. Global aftermarket remains on track for another year of double-digit growth following 1Q up 8%. Total company backlog was up about 10% year-over-year and 15% sequentially.

因此，今年的開局強勁且優於預期。訂單量呈現高個位數成長，其中氣候解決方案、歐洲和運輸領域的訂單量將達到兩位數成長。在 Climate Solutions America 內部，住宅和商業銷售額均上漲了約 20%，足以抵消輕型商用銷售額的疲軟。全球售後市場在第一季成長 8% 之後，仍有望在新的一年實現兩位數成長。公司總積壓訂單年增約 10%，季增 15%。

The team continues to use Carrier excellence to drive strong productivity with core earnings conversion of about 100% and 210 basis points of margin expansion. We drove 27% adjusted EPS growth on 2% organic growth. Free cash flow was $420 million, and we returned about $1.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share repurchases plus paid down $1.2 billion in debt with no additional maturities until 2027.

該團隊繼續利用 Carrier 的卓越表現來推動強勁的生產力，核心獲利轉換率達到約 100%，利潤率擴大 210 個基點。我們在 2% 的有機成長基礎上實現了 27% 的調整後每股盈餘成長。自由現金流為 4.2 億美元，本季我們透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了約 15 億美元，並償還了 12 億美元的債務，直到 2027 年才有額外到期日。

Turning to slide 4. We made great progress on all 3 drivers of sustained growth: products, aftermarket and systems. In terms of differentiated products, channels and brands, we introduced Carrier's first air-cooled commercial heat pump in Europe, delivering high temperatures, increased energy efficiency, noise reduction and enhanced operational performance. All of which address increased demand for district heating and cooling in Europe. Also, as we displayed at the recent ISH Show in Frankfurt, we are gaining traction selling our Carrier-branded air-to-air residential heat pumps in Europe leveraging Viessmann's channel.

翻到幻燈片 4。我們在產品、售後市場和系統這三大持續成長動力上都取得了巨大進展。在差異化產品、渠道、品牌方面，引進開利歐洲首款風冷商用熱泵，具有溫度高、能源效率高、噪音低、運作性能強等特性。所有這些都是為了滿足歐洲對區域供熱和製冷日益增長的需求。此外，正如我們在最近的法蘭克福 ISH 展會上所展示的那樣，我們利用 Viessmann 的管道在歐洲銷售開利品牌的空對空家用熱泵的勢頭越來越強勁。

Aftermarket strength continues. We drove tremendous progress in the attachment rates on our commercial chillers now surpassing 60% for the first time and we now have over 50,000 connected chillers, up about 5,000 versus the prior quarter. Aftermarket for Global commercial HVAC was up about 10%, supported by margin upgrades, which grew about 20%. We also introduced a smart device application for LYNX Fleet, providing increased real-time visibility, enhance customer operational efficiency and reduce costs while maintaining cold chain integrity. On systems, we introduced Viessmann's Profi to accelerate and expand our HEMS sales in Europe.

售後市場持續保持強勁勢頭。我們在商用冷水機組連接率方面取得了巨大進步，首次超過 60%，現在我們擁有超過 50,000 台連接的冷水機組，比上一季度增加了約 5,000 台。全球商用暖通空調售後市場成長約 10%，受利潤率提升（成長約 20%）的推動。我們還為 LYNX Fleet 推出了一款智慧型裝置應用程序，提供更高的即時可視性，提高客戶營運效率並降低成本，同時保持冷鏈的完整性。在系統方面，我們引入了 Viessmann 的 Profi 來加速和擴大我們在歐洲的 HEMS 銷售。

Selling heat pumps versus boilers is a mix-up sales benefit of about 4 to 1 selling complete systems versus boilers is a mix-up benefit of closer to 8:1 with more value to the homeowner. So we see this as a significant win-win opportunity for sustained growth and customer stickiness. For HEMS in the United States, we announced an exciting new partnership with Google to enhance grid resilience and support smarter energy management. By integrating Carrier HEMS technology with Google's cloud, AI and analytics, we will help increase the efficiency of the existing energy infrastructure, reduce grid congestion, unlock greater energy utilization and reduce energy costs to the homeowner.

銷售熱泵與銷售鍋爐的混合銷售效益約為 4 比 1，而銷售完整系統與銷售鍋爐的混合銷售效益接近 8:1，對房主來說價值更高。因此，我們認為這是一個實現持續成長和客戶黏性的重大雙贏機會。對於美國的 HEMS，我們宣布與 Google 建立令人興奮的新合作夥伴關係，以增強電網彈性並支援更智慧的能源管理。透過將 Carrier HEMS 技術與 Google 的雲端、AI 和分析技術相結合，我們將協助提高現有能源基礎設施的效率、減少電網擁塞、提高能源利用率並降低房主的能源成本。

Turning to slide 5 for an update on the residential and light commercial business in Europe. Organic orders were up mid-teens, driven by strength in heat pumps, offset by a decline in boilers. Germany heat pump subsidy applications in Q1 were up significantly, the highest 1 we have seen in the past 5 years. Our RLC Europe book-to-bill was 1.3 and our backlog was up 60% sequentially. Organic sales were down about 10% as we expected, and we project the RLC Europe business to return to modest growth in 2Q.

翻到投影片 5，了解歐洲住宅和輕型商業業務的最新情況。有機訂單量上漲了百分之十幾，這得益於熱泵的強勁增長，但被鍋爐的下滑所抵消。德國第一季熱泵補貼申請大幅增加，為過去5年來最高。我們的 RLC 歐洲訂單出貨比為 1.3，積壓訂單較上季成長 60%。正如我們預期的那樣，有機銷售額下降了約 10%，我們預計 RLC 歐洲業務將在第二季度恢復溫和成長。

Revenue synergies remain on track for about $100 million this year and about $200 million next year. Cost synergies also continue to be strong, and we are on track to achieve more than $200 million by the end of next year.

今年的營收綜效仍將達到約 1 億美元，明年將達到約 2 億美元。成本綜效也持續保持強勁，我們預計在明年年底實現超過 2 億美元的目標。

A few comments on the recent election in Germany. We were pleased to see that the new coalition government is committed to the European Union's 2030 climate goals, which include a 55% reduction in carbon emissions, which will contribute to a continued shift to electric heating. Also encouraging is the coalition's continued support for heat pump subsidies and its EUR 500 billion infrastructure investments, including about EUR 100 billion for additional green investments. Importantly, new government is also committed to bringing down electricity pricing by at least $0.05 per kilowatt, which is expected to bring the ratio of electricity to gas prices below 3. Further improving the ratio will be ETF 2, where across Europe in 2027, we expect fossil fuel prices to increase.

對最近德國選舉的一些評論。我們很高興看到新聯合政府致力於實現歐盟2030年氣候目標，其中包括減少55%的碳排放，這將有助於繼續轉向電力供暖。同樣令人鼓舞的是，聯盟繼續支持熱泵補貼及其 5,000 億歐元的基礎設施投資，其中包括約 1,000 億歐元的額外綠色投資。重要的是，新政府還承諾將電價降低至少每千瓦0.05美元，預計將使電價與氣價比率降至3以下。ETF 2 將進一步提高這一比率，我們預計 2027 年整個歐洲的化石燃料價格將會上漲。

All in, we're pleased with improving heat pump demand and traction on our key growth initiatives.

總而言之，我們很高興看到熱泵需求的提高以及我們關鍵成長計畫的推動力。

A word on our guidance and the macro environment on slide 6. Let me first say that we, of course, support free and fair trade. Also, Carrier is proud to be the largest US domiciled player in our industry and we've grown our domestic headcount by about 20% over the past 5 years, and we continue to invest in our US workforce and factories.

投影片 6 上簡要介紹了我們的指導和宏觀環境。首先我要說的是，我們當然支持自由和公平貿易。此外，開利很自豪能夠成為我們行業中最大的美國本土企業，並且在過去 5 年中，我們的國內員工人數增加了約 20%，並且我們將繼續投資於我們的美國勞動力和工廠。

With respect to tariffs, virtually all of our imports from Mexico are US MCA compliant. For the tariffs that are in effect today, China is about 80% of our exposure. As reflected in our guidance, we are fully mitigating our tariff exposure through supply chain and productivity actions with the balance of about $300 million via price, which represents a little over 1% of additional pricing. In addition, given the fluidity of the current market environment, we are taking additional cost containment measures.

關於關稅，我們從墨西哥進口的幾乎所有產品都符合美國 MCA 的規定。就目前生效的關稅而言，中國約占我們關稅風險的80%。正如我們的指導意見所反映的，我們正在透過供應鏈和生產力行動完全緩解關稅風險，其中約 3 億美元的餘額將透過價格支付，佔額外定價的 1% 多一點。此外，鑑於當前市場環境的流動性，我們正在採取額外的成本控制措施。

Based on our strong start to the year and current FX rates, we are increasing our full year adjusted EPS guide to $3 to $3.10, which is up about 20% year-over-year.

基於我們今年的強勁開局和當前的外匯匯率，我們將全年調整後每股收益預期上調至 3 美元至 3.10 美元，同比增長約 20%。

As always, our team is committed to taking the actions needed to deliver on our commitments to our customers and investors. You saw this when we address COVID and supply chain disruptions, and we are confident that you'll see us do the same here. Importantly, while we remain clear-eyed and prudent given the current macroeconomic uncertainty, we will remain laser focused on our customers and continue to invest in differentiation and solutions to drive sustained outsized growth for years to come.

像往常一樣，我們的團隊致力於採取必要的行動來履行對客戶和投資者的承諾。當我們應對新冠疫情和供應鏈中斷時，您已經看到了這一點，我們相信您會看到我們在這裡做同樣的事情。重要的是，儘管我們在當前宏觀經濟不確定性的情況下保持清醒和謹慎，但我們仍將重點關注我們的客戶，並繼續投資於差異化和解決方案，以推動未來幾年持續的超額成長。

With that, I will turn it over to Patrick.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給派崔克。

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 7. As Dave mentioned, we had a strong start to the year with earnings ahead of our expectation than the guide we provided in February. Reported sales were $5.2 billion with 2% organic sales growth, including about 2 points of price. The impact of mix up and volume was net neutral.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早安。請翻到幻燈片 7。正如戴夫所提到的，我們今年開局強勁，盈利超出了我們的預期，也超出了我們在二月份提供的指導。報告銷售額為 52 億美元，有機銷售額成長 2%，其中包括約 2 個點的價格成長。混合和數量的影響是淨中性的。

We had an unfavorable 5% net impact from acquisitions and divestitures and a point of headwind from foreign currency. Organic sales were largely in line with expectations with stronger-than-expected performance in Climate Solutions Americas, partially offset by weaker performance in Climate Solutions, Asia, Middle East and Africa. Europe and transportation came in largely as expected. Q1 adjusted operating profit increased 10% compared to last year, driven by strong productivity and price. As a result, adjusted operating margin expanded by 210 basis points compared to last year.

我們受到了來自收購和資產剝離的 5% 的不利淨影響以及來自外匯的阻力。有機銷售額基本上符合預期，美洲氣候解決方案部門的業績優於預期，但亞洲、中東和非洲氣候解決方案部門的業績較弱部分抵消了這一成長。歐洲和運輸業基本上符合預期。受強勁的生產力和價格推動，第一季調整後的營業利潤較去年同期成長了 10%。因此，調整後的營業利潤率較去年同期擴大了 210 個基點。

The absence of commercial refrigeration was about a 70 basis point tailwind to margin. Adjusted EPS of $0.65 was up 27% year-over-year and better than expected due to strong productivity performance. Compared to last year, adjusted EPS growth was driven by improved adjusted operating profit, lower net interest expense from deleveraging and a lower share count. We have included a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on slide 19. Free cash flow of $420 million in the quarter was also stronger than expected, driven by higher net income, lower-than-expected seasonal working capital build and lower capital expenditures.

缺乏商業製冷對利潤率造成約 70 個基點的順風。調整後每股收益為 0.65 美元，年成長 27%，且由於生產力表現強勁而優於預期。與去年相比，調整後每股盈餘的成長得益於調整後營業利潤的提高、去槓桿帶來的淨利息支出的降低以及股票數量的減少。我們在第 19 頁的附錄中附上了同比調整後的 EPS 橋接器。本季 4.2 億美元的自由現金流也強於預期，這得益於淨收入增加、季節性營運資本累積低於預期以及資本支出減少。

During the quarter, we repurchased $1.3 billion worth of shares. And in April, we repurchased an additional $320 million worth of shares. We continue to target $3 billion of share repurchases in 2025.

本季度，我們回購了價值 13 億美元的股票。今年 4 月，我們又回購了價值 3.2 億美元的股票。我們繼續設定 2025 年 30 億美元的股票回購目標。

Moving on to the segments, starting on slide 8. The CSA segment had a very strong quarter, with organic sales growth of 9%. A bit more than half of the sales growth came from volume and mix up, the balance from price. Commercial ex NORESCO and residential strength continued with organic sales in both businesses up around 20%. Within residential, regulatory mix up was the high single-digit organic growth benefit with the balance split between volume and price.

從投影片 8 開始，繼續進行各個部分。CSA 部門本季表現非常強勁，有機銷售額成長 9%。銷售額成長的一半多一點來自銷售量和產品組合，其餘則來自價格。除 NORESCO 以外的商業和住宅業務繼續保持強勁勢頭，兩項業務的有機銷售額均增長了約 20%。在住宅領域，監管混合帶來了高個位數有機成長效益以及數量和價格之間的平衡分割。

About 75% of our resi volume was 454 B, and we are realizing the expected 10% mix up. Light Commercial came in lower than expected, down around 35% with a tough compare versus prior year, which was up about 20%. Adjusted operating margins expanded 420 basis points, driven by strong organic growth and productivity. Overall, CSA had an outstanding quarter.

我們的 resi 交易量約有 75% 為 454 B，並且我們正在實現預期的 10% 混合。輕型商用車銷量低於預期，下降約 35%，與去年同期約 20% 的漲幅相比，情況並不樂觀。受強勁的有機成長和生產力推動，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 420 個基點。總體而言，CSA 本季表現出色。

Moving to CFE on slide 9. About 75% of this segment sales represent residential light commercial or RLC, of which about 85% is represented by Viessmann Climate Solutions and 15% legacy Carrier. Commercial represents about 25% of the segment sales. Organic sales in CSE were down 7% with mid-single-digit growth in commercial, offset by about a 10% decline in ROC, largely in line with expectations. Adjusted operating margin declined 390 basis points driven by lower volume, mix and investments, partially offset by favorable cost synergies.

移至投影片 9 上的 CFE。該部門銷售額的約 75% 為住宅輕型商用或 RLC，其中約 85% 由 Viessmann Climate Solutions 銷售，15% 由傳統 Carrier 銷售。商業約佔該部門銷售額的25%。CSE 的有機銷售額下降了 7%，而商業銷售額實現了中等個位數成長，但 ROC 的銷售額下降了約 10%，這基本上符合預期。調整後的營業利潤率下降了 390 個基點，原因是銷售量、產品組合和投資下降，但被有利的成本綜效部分抵銷。

At 9%, we are confident that we can and will drive significant margin improvement in this segment. We expect volumes to improve. We are addressing underperformance of Carrier's legacy ROC business. Commercial margins are on an improving trend, and there is significant additional opportunity to streamline and drive synergies within the region. More on that at our upcoming Investor Day in a few weeks.

在 9% 的利潤率下，我們有信心能夠並將推動該部門利潤率的大幅提升。我們預計銷量將會提高。我們正在解決 Carrier 遺留 ROC 業務表現不佳的問題。商業利潤率呈上升趨勢，該地區還有大量額外機會來簡化和推動協同效應。幾週後我們將在投資者日上公佈更多相關資訊。

Moving to the CS AME segment on slide 10. Organic sales were down 6%, driven by continued weakness in residential China and parts of Southeast Asia, partially offset by growth in Japan and India. Within China, our residential light commercial business was down around 20% and commercial was up low single digits. Both businesses faced challenging compares versus the prior year, which were both up around 10%. Despite the organic sales decline, adjusted operating margin for this segment expanded 240 basis points as a result of productivity and the absence of a prior year unfavorable currency impact.

移至幻燈片 10 上的 CS AME 部分。有機銷售額下降 6%，原因是中國和東南亞部分地區的住宅市場持續疲軟，但日本和印度的成長部分抵消了這一影響。在中國，我們的住宅輕型商用業務下降了約 20%，而商用業務則成長了個位數。與去年同期相比，這兩家公司的業績均成長了約 10%，但都面臨挑戰。儘管有機銷售額下降，但由於生產效率提高以及沒有上一年不利的貨幣影響，該部門的調整後營業利潤率擴大了 240 個基點。

Moving to CST on slide 11. Organic sales were up 2%, driven by container up 20% and partially offset by global truck and failure, which was down low single digits with over 30% growth in Asia, low single-digit declines in North America and high single-digit decline in Europe. Adjusted operating margin expanded 210 basis points compared to the prior year, mainly due to the commercial refrigeration exit.

移至投影片 11 上的 CST。有機銷售額增長 2%，其中貨櫃銷售額增長 20%，但全球卡車和故障銷售額部分抵消了這一增長，全球卡車和故障銷售額呈低個位數下降，其中亞洲增長超過 30%，北美呈低個位數下降，歐洲呈高個位數下降。調整後的營業利潤率較前一年擴大了 210 個基點，主要原因是商業冷凍業務的退出。

Turning to slide 12. Total company organic orders momentum continued up high single digits. As you can see on the slide, we had high single-digit or double-digit orders growth in all segments, but CSAM. Within AME, China orders were down high single digits with a high teens decline in ROC and up mid-single digits in commercial where we continue to build backlog. Within transportation, within transportation, orders were up double digits, driven by global truck and trailer, where North America orders were very strong compared to last year.

翻到第 12 張投影片。公司整體有機訂單動能持續保持高個位數成長。正如您在幻燈片上看到的，除 CSAM 外，我們所有部門的訂單都實現了高個位數或兩位數增長。在 AME 中，中國訂單下降了高個位數，ROC 訂單下降了高十幾個百分點，而商業訂單則上升了中等個位數，我們繼續累積積壓訂單。在運輸領域，受全球卡車和拖車的推動，運輸訂單增長了兩位數，其中北美訂單與去年相比非常強勁。

Overall, we ended Q1 with a robust longer-cycle backlog in commercial and continued broad orders momentum in over 85% of our business.

總體而言，我們在第一季結束時，商業領域擁有強勁的長週期積壓訂單，超過 85% 的業務繼續保持廣泛的訂單動能。

Moving on to slide 13. We and shifting to full year organic sales guidance. We continue to expect mid-single-digit organic sales growth. Given current FX rates, reported sales are now expected to be a bit above $23 billion compared to $22.5 billion to $23 billion in the February guidance. Also compared to the February guide we now expect slightly higher organic sales in CSA driven by tariff-related pricing to be offset by lower volume, mainly in light commercial.

移至幻燈片 13。我們並轉向全年有機銷售指引。我們繼續預期有機銷售額將實現中等個位數成長。考慮到目前的外匯匯率，預計報告銷售額將略高於 230 億美元，而 2 月預測的銷售額為 225 億至 230 億美元。此外，與 2 月的指南相比，我們現在預計，受關稅相關定價推動的 CSA 有機銷售將略有上升，但將被銷售下降（主要是輕型商用車）所抵消。

No other material changes in our organic growth outlook.

我們的有機成長前景沒有其他重大變化。

Moving to profit and cash guide on slide 14. At the top of the slide, you can see our margin expectations for each segment. Total company adjusted operating margin expansion remains unchanged and about 100 basis points versus the prior year.

前往第 14 張投影片上的利潤和現金指南。在幻燈片的頂部，您可以看到我們對每個部分的利潤預期。公司調整後營業利潤率整體擴張保持不變，較上年增長約 100 個基點。

I will cover adjusted EPS on the next slide. But before I do, we are maintaining our estimate for free cash flow of between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion reflecting roughly 100% conversion. Moving to slide 15. We are increasing our adjusted EPS guidance range by $0.05 to a new range of $3 to $3.10. Stronger productivity and updated currency is partially offset by slightly lower expected volume.

我將在下一張投影片中介紹調整後的每股盈餘。但在此之前，我們維持自由現金流估計在 24 億美元至 26 億美元之間，反映約 100% 的轉換率。移至投影片 15。我們將調整後每股盈餘預期範圍調高0.05美元，至3美元至3.10美元的新區間。生產力提升和貨幣匯率調整帶來的部分影響被略微下降的預期銷售所抵銷。

The net impact of tariffs is neutral.

關稅的淨影響是中性的。

Some additional color on Q2. We expect sales of about $6 billion, 100 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion and 20% adjusted EPS growth. Additional guide items are in the appendix on slide 18.

Q2 上有一些額外的顏色。我們預計銷售額約 60 億美元，調整後營業利潤率擴大 100 個基點，調整後每股收益將成長 20%。其他指南內容請參閱投影片 18 上的附錄。

In summary, Q1 was a strong start to the year. For 2025, we anticipate solid mid-single-digit organic sales growth, strong margin expansion and close to 20% adjusted EPS growth.

總而言之，第一季是今年的一個強勁開端。到 2025 年，我們預計有機銷售額將實現穩健的中等個位數成長、利潤率將強勁擴張，調整後每股盈餘將成長近 20%。

With that, I would like to ask the operator to open the line for Q&A.

現在，我想請接線生開通問答專線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的 Nigel Coe。

So guidance for the press, just want to confirm, Patrick, you're sort of pointing towards $0.87 or so of EPS base case and about 5% core growth.

因此，對於新聞界的指導，我只是想確認一下，帕特里克，您指的是每股收益基本情況為 0.87 美元左右，核心增長為 5% 左右。

For Q2, you mean that, Nigel?

對於 Q2，你的意思是那樣嗎，奈傑爾？

For Q2, yes, Q2 '25, yes.

對於第二季度，是的，25 年第二季度，是的。

Yes, mid-single digits organic growth about sales of about $6 billion. I mentioned 100 basis points of margin expansion and roughly or close to 20% adjusted EPS growth.

是的，銷售額約 60 億美元，有機成長幅度達到中等個位數。我提到了利潤率擴大 100 個基點，以及調整後每股盈餘成長約或接近 20%。

That's great. And then just given all the moving pieces across the portfolio, how does that mid-single-digit look across the new segments?

那太棒了。那麼，考慮到整個投資組合中所有變動的部分，這個中等個位數的成長在新的細分市場中表現如何？

For Q2, or for the full year?

針對第二季度，還是針對全年？

Let's say both, Q2 and full year.

假設第二季和全年都是如此。

I'll start with Q2. We expect organic sales growth to pick up in the Americas, mid-teens. In Europe, the Europe segment, we expect Q2 to be up, as Dave mentioned, low to mid-single digits. In Asia, we expect another quarter of low single-digit organic sales decline and same for transportation. That's due for the overall company to mid-single digits, maybe a little bit better than that.

我將從 Q2 開始。我們預計美洲的有機銷售額成長率將達到十五六個百分點。在歐洲，歐洲地區，正如戴夫所提到的，我們預計第二季的銷售額將成長低至個位數。在亞洲，我們預期本季有機銷售額將再次出現個位數低幅下滑，運輸業也是如此。這是因為整個公司的業績將達到中等個位數，甚至可能比這更好一點。

For the full year, our organic guide for the overall company remains mid-single digits. For the Americas, we continue to expect high single digits. Europe low single digits, same for Asia and Middle East. And then we expect organic growth to pick up in transportation in the back half of the year, and we expect transportation to be up mid-single digits organic growth for the full year.

就全年而言，我們對整個公司的有機成長指引仍為中等個位數。對於美洲，我們繼續預期成長率將達到高個位數。歐洲為低個位數，亞洲和中東也是如此。我們預計下半年運輸業的有機成長將會回升，我們預計全年運輸業的有機成長率將達到中等個位數。

That's great. And then just a quick follow-on the tariff. I think $300 million is the number that will be offset by price. Any more color in terms of what the gross impact is and how much has been offset by productivity and other actions?

那太棒了。然後我們來快速了解關稅。我認為 3 億美元是可以透過價格來抵銷的數字。能否詳細說明一下整體影響是多少以及生產力和其他行動抵消了多少影響？

I would say, Nigel, we don't really think of it that way because we've effectively offset whatever we saw upfront with our suppliers and with the productivity actions. So as we kind of sit here today, we view the exposure as the $300 million that we need to go offset with price. And frankly, we've already implemented those price increases in our channel.

我想說，奈傑爾，我們實際上並不這麼認為，因為我們已經透過供應商和生產力行動有效地抵消了我們前期看到的一切。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們認為風險敞口是需要用價格來抵消的 3 億美元。坦白說，我們已經在我們的通路中實施了這些價格上漲。

Okay, thanks guys thank you.

好的，謝謝大家。

Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning, maybe I just wondered if you could drill a little bit more into the Americas segment and sort of flesh out perhaps kind of what you're seeing in the resi piece there and like commercial and that's the 2 places where I suppose the full year guidance has changed in May versus February. So help us understand the drivers there and how you think about those 2 pieces playing out over the balance of this year?

你好，早上好，我只是想知道您是否可以更深入地了解一下美洲部分，並詳細說明一下您在住宅部分和商業部分看到的內容，我認為這兩個地方的全年指導在 5 月份和 2 月份發生了變化。那麼，請幫助我們了解其中的驅動因素，以及您如何看待這兩部分在今年餘下時間裡發揮作用？

Yes, Julian. First, on the resi side, we did increase from high single digits for the full year to high single digits to perhaps low double digits. Some of the pricing on the tariff side, we will see on the resi side specifically. But resi was a bit of a stronger start to the year than we anticipated. It was up around 20%. The regulatory mix played out well. It was about 75% of the mix between 454B and 410 was the 454B. And we realized a little over 10% on that, and that was about of course, 80% of the total volume for resi.

是的，朱利安。首先，在住宅方面，我們的全年成長率確實從高個位數成長到了高個位數，甚至可能是低兩位數。關稅方面的一些定價，我們將具體在住宅方面看到。但今年年初，resi 的表現比我們預期的要強勁一些。上漲了約20%。監理組合發揮了良好作用。454B 和 410 的混合中約有 75% 是 454B。我們實現了略高於 10% 的增幅，當然，這大約佔了 resi 總量的 80%。

We got mid-single-digit price, mid-single-digit volume and 2Q is on track, probably in that 15% to 20% range. And I think we look at the full year and we have much tougher comps as we get into the second half, in particular, as we look at the fourth quarter. Because remember, we did have maybe 75 or so million of pre-buy in the fourth quarter of last year. So we feel good about resi certainly in the first half, and we'll keep our eye on the second half, and I think we've derisked that with how we've thought about high single digits to low double digits for the full year.

我們獲得了中等個位數的價格，中等個位數的銷量，第二季進展順利，可能在 15% 到 20% 的範圍內。我認為，縱觀全年，當我們進入下半年，特別是第四季時，我們會面臨更嚴峻的競爭情況。因為請記住，去年第四季我們確實有大約 7500 萬的預購量。因此，我們對上半年的業績感到十分樂觀，並且會密切關注下半年的業績，我認為我們已經降低了風險，因為我們預計全年的業績將從高個位數增長至低兩位數。

Light commercial was worse than we thought, and that's what's driven us to increase -- to decrease our guide for the full year down low double digits. We mentioned that first quarter was much lower than we thought, and it's really a combination of a couple of things. Some of the small and medium businesses were soft. You can think about things like nail salons or a local restaurant or barbershops. So that was a little bit softer than we thought. And there were some delayed spending on K-12, some of that bond funding was a bit pause.

輕型商用車的表現比我們想像的還要差，這促使我們將全年業績指引下調至兩位數以下。我們提到，第一季的業績比我們想像的要低得多，這實際上是多種因素共同作用的結果。一些中小企業經營狀況較差。您可以考慮美甲沙龍、當地餐廳或理髮店之類的地方。所以比我們想像的要軟一點。K-12 方面的支出有些延遲，部分債券融資也有些暫停。

So Q1 was softer. I think we've -- we're looking at Q2 being down close to 20%, and then you'll see the second half of the year flat to slightly up a bit. So that puts you down 10% for the full year. But you know, Julian, our light commercial business is about $1.5 billion of sales. So it's just about 5% of the company, a little over 5%. So it could be down 10%, and it impacts Carriers' top line by just about 0.5%. So we'll keep an eye on it, but it's something that the team is on top of, and I think we've derisked in our full year plan.

因此第一季表現較為疲軟。我認為我們預計第二季度的銷售額將下降近 20%，而下半年的銷售額將持平或略有上升。因此，全年的損失將達到 10%。但朱利安，你知道，我們的輕型商用業務的銷售額約為 15 億美元。所以這只占公司的 5% 左右，略高於 5%。因此，其利潤可能會下降 10%，但對營運商的營收影響僅為 0.5% 左右。因此我們會密切關注，但這是團隊正在關注的事情，我認為我們已經在全年計劃中降低了風險。

That's very helpful. And then just maybe secondly, I wanted to understand on the CS Americas business, looking more at the margin front. So very strong margins up year-on-year in Q1 of over 400 points. The full year is guided up about 50 bps. And if we just look at absolute margin, there isn't much difference between what you saw in Q1 and what's guided for the full year, even though perhaps 1 might think with the seasonality, it should be moving higher particularly second and third quarter versus first. So maybe sort of flesh out a bit how you see those margins developing over the balance of the year, please, in Americas?

這非常有幫助。其次，我想了解 CS Americas 的業務，並且更專注於利潤方面。因此，第一季的利潤率較去年同期大幅成長超過 400 個百分點。預計全年將上漲約 50 個基點。如果我們只看絕對利潤率，那麼第一季的利潤率和全年預期的利潤率之間並沒有太大區別，儘管我可能認為，由於季節性因素，利潤率應該會更高，尤其是第二季度和第三季度，而不是第一季。那麼，您能否稍微具體說明一下，您認為今年美洲地區的利潤率會如何發展？

Sounds good, Julian. And the way you can think about this is we do expect in Q2 the margins in the Americas to pick up by a couple of points. So it was about 22% in Q1 probably closer to 25% in Q2, somewhat similar in Q3 but then lower in Q4 to get to about the 22.5%. And maybe some additional color on that.

聽起來不錯，朱利安。你可以這樣想：我們確實預期第二季美洲地區的利潤率將上升幾個個百分點。因此，第一季的比例約為 22%，第二季的比例可能接近 25%，第三季的比例也差不多，但第四季的比例會降低，降至 22.5% 左右。也許還可以添加一些顏色。

The tariffs represent a headwind to the Americas margin, given the price cost neutrality there. And that's a headwind to margin of about 50, 60 bps on for the entire year. And so in that range for Q2, Q3, Q4. And so that you'll see that play out in that segment. And then as Dave mentioned, resi volumes in the back half of the year will be lower. And of course, it has a margin impact as well. So 22% -- north of 22% margin in expected to step up close to 25% in Q2, similar in Q3 and then a step down to get to 22.5% for the year.

鑑於美洲的價格成本中性，關稅對美洲的利潤率來說是一個阻力。這對全年的利潤率造成約 50 至 60 個基點的不利影響。Q2、Q3、Q4 也處於這個範圍內。這樣你就會在那個片段中看到它的表現。然後，正如戴夫所提到的，今年下半年的住宅交易量將會較低。當然，它也會對利潤產生影響。因此，預計利潤率將在 22% 以上，第二季將上升至接近 25%，第三季將接近 22%，然後全年將下降至 22.5%。

That's great, Patrick.

太好了，派崔克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Good morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Dave, can you update us on your outlook for Viessmann at this point? Obviously, orders in backlog are up and you said RLC Europe will return to organic growth in Q2. So do you still see flat for Viessmann for the year? I think you talked about 150 basis margin improvement and then stepping back on overall CSC, you talked about your work to get that margin up, but maybe you could elaborate on the issues in the segment and what you're doing to address them?

戴夫，您能否向我們介紹一下您對 Viessmann 的展望？顯然，積壓訂單有所增加，而且您說 RLC 歐洲將在第二季度恢復有機成長。那麼，您認為今年菲斯曼的業績還會持平嗎？我認為您談到了 150 個基礎利潤率的提高，然後又談到了整體 CSC，您談到了為提高利潤率所做的工作，但也許您可以詳細說明該部分中的問題以及您正在採取哪些措施來解決這些問題？

Yes. When you look at our overall growth algorithm for Viessmann, we still feel good about flat for the full year. We think that total unit deliveries in Germany may be a little bit lower than we thought. I think we were thinking more like down 7%, it may be down 10% or slightly higher, but we are seeing a better mix up.

是的。當您查看我們對 Viessmann 的整體成長演算法時，我們仍然對全年持平感到滿意。我們認為德國的總交付量可能比我們想像的要低。我認為我們預計的下降幅度更像是 7%，也可能是 10% 或略高一些，但我們看到了更好的組合。

In Germany, we think key pumps will be up more like 30% versus our previous estimate of 15%. So the benefit of the mix offsets a little bit of the volume perhaps being a little bit lower than we thought. And a lot of that lower volume is on the boiler side as we see very, very strong demand in Germany, in particular, but throughout Europe with that continued move to electrification.

在德國，我們認為主要泵浦的產量將上漲 30% 以上，而我們先前估計的產量為 15%。因此，混合的好處會稍微抵消產量的影響，也許產量比我們想像的要低一點。而較低的產量很大程度上是由於鍋爐方面的需求非常強勁，尤其是在德國，整個歐洲都在持續向電氣化邁進。

I mentioned in my script that we were pleased with the new government coalition that is doubling down on the shift to electrification, doubling down on reducing electricity prices, they supported subsidies. Of course, we'll have to see the clarification on the new heating law. But the rest of the algorithm stays intact was we'll continue to see a bit of price.

我在稿子中提到，我們對新政府聯盟感到滿意，他們加倍努力向電氣化轉型，加倍努力降低電價，並支持補助。當然，我們也得看看新暖氣法的澄清。但演算法的其餘部分保持不變，我們將繼續看到一些價格。

We'll continue to see aftermarket up double digits, which gives us another point or 2. And all of our initiatives that drive 4% to 5% growth, whether the cost synergies, the share gains, the introduction of systems prophy, we feel good that all of those remain very, very much on track. So we feel good about flattish. And the year, we had said that the first quarter would be down 10% to 15%. It was closer to 10%. And the team really came through in the first quarter, and we're confident that, that momentum will continue. We'll see second quarter up a bit.

我們將繼續看到售後市場以兩位數成長，這將為我們帶來另外 1 或 2 個點。我們所有推動 4% 至 5% 成長的舉措，無論是成本協同效應、份額成長還是系統預測的引入，我們都很高興看到它們都仍在按計劃進行。因此我們對 flattish 感到滿意。我們曾預測今年第一季的銷售額將下降 10% 至 15%。它接近10％。球隊在第一季確實表現出色，我們相信這種勢頭將會持續下去。我們會看到第二季度有所上漲。

And then the margin on the segment, Dave?

那麼該部分的利潤是多少呢，戴夫？

For the Europe margins across the --

對於歐洲的利潤率--

Correct.

正確的。

You mean the growth opportunity going forward? Or what do you think?

您指的是未來的成長機會嗎？或者您覺得怎樣？

Yes, the margin improvement in that segment, Patrick.

是的，該部分的利潤率有所提高，帕特里克。

We think that RLC and if I talk specifically about Viessmann. Viessmann Will be double digits. It will be closer to low teens for this year. Last year, they ended up at 10%.

我們認為 RLC 以及我具體談論 Viessmann 的情況。菲斯曼將達到兩位數。今年的氣溫將更接近十幾歲。去年，這一比例最終達到了 10%。

Got it. And then Dave, can you give more color on to what's going on with your commercial HVAC business Americas, given the capacity increase that you have this year? I know you said you get data center to double that -- I assume that's still on track. And then 20% growth in commercial HVAC is good. I assume that's pretty sustainable moving forward given the capacity you've added?

知道了。然後戴夫，考慮到今年產能的增加，您能否詳細介紹美洲商業暖通空調業務的進展？我知道您說過要讓資料中心的規模翻倍——我認為這仍在正常進行中。那麼商業 HVAC 的 20% 成長率是好的。我認為，考慮到你們增加的產能，這種發展是相當可持續的？

Yes. We feel very good about commercial HVAC overall. You know that this will be our fifth year in a row of double-digit growth. Americas was very strong in the first quarter. It was up in the high teens. If you think about the global commercial HVAC business overall, call it up double digits again this year. we're going to see $500 million of growth from data centers.

是的。總體而言，我們對商用 HVAC 感覺非常好。你知道，這將是我們連續第五年實現兩位數成長。第一季美洲表現非常強勁。溫度已升至十幾歲。如果你考慮一下全球商業暖通空調業務的整體情況，那麼今年它將再次達到兩位數。我們將看到資料中心實現 5 億美元的成長。

We said that we were $500 million last year going to $1 billion, and we remain very much on track with that. We had a very strong first quarter for data centers, I think it was something like $250 million of deliveries for data centers in the first quarter alone. So we feel good about where we are for the $1 billion of full data centers for this year. And then for the rest of the nondata center business for commercial HVAC will be up in the high single-digit range this year.

我們說過，去年我們的銷售額為 5 億美元，今年將達到 10 億美元，我們目前仍按計畫實現這一目標。我們第一季的資料中心表現非常強勁，我認為光是第一季的資料中心交付量就達到了 2.5 億美元。因此，我們對今年耗資​​ 10 億美元建造完整資料中心的計畫感到非常滿意。今年，其餘非資料中心業務（商用 HVAC）的銷售額將實現高個位數成長。

So I think that the increase in capacity, particularly in North America, where we're increasing our capacity so much, that has really freed up the sales team to go aggressively after some of the nondata center work where data centers was probably taking up more of the capacity over the past 12 months than it will going forward. So we see really good progress on some of the mega projects. Health care remains strong. Pharma has been good. electronic fabs, some of the higher ed are all positive for us. Obviously, things like commercial office buildings continues to be weak. But overall, commercial HVAC is very, very positive.

因此，我認為產能的增加，特別是在北美，我們大幅提高了產能，這確實讓銷售團隊能夠積極地進行一些非資料中心的工作，因為資料中心在過去 12 個月中佔用的產能可能比未來還要多。因此，我們看到一些大型專案取得了良好的進展。醫療保健依然強勁。製藥業一直表現良好。電子工廠、一些高等教育對我們來說都是正面的。顯然，商業辦公大樓等方面持續疲軟。但總體而言，商用暖通空調非常非常積極。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的色彩。

Thanks Andy.

謝謝安迪。

Steph Tusa with JPMorgan

摩根大通的 Steph Tusa

Hey, Steve. I don't know what -- we'll go with Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。我不知道——我們會和史蒂夫一起去。

Yes, yes, a little euro in there. Just wanted to make sure that we're clear on the base of -- there's been a lot of restatements here, but like what is the actual base for earnings for 2Q of '24 again? Can you just remind us what that is, EPS?

是的，是的，裡面有一點歐元。只是想確保我們清楚基礎——這裡已經有很多重述，但 24 年第二季的實際收益基礎是什麼？你能提醒我們那是什麼嗎，EPS？

Yes. Tony? That hasn't changed obviously from the prior year.

是的。托尼？與前一年相比，這顯然沒有變化。

Yes. There's no change. I think it's low 70s, but I'll pull the number up in one sec.

是的。沒有變化。我認為它低於 70 度，但我將在一秒鐘內將數字調高。

I think $0.73.

我認為是 0.73 美元。

Yes, $0.73, okay. Just wanted to make sure because like Bloomberg still shows 75 and you guys have restated a bit. So I just want to make sure we have the base okay on that.

是的，0.73 美元，好的。只是想確認一下，因為彭博社仍然顯示 75，而你們已經重申了一點。所以我只是想確保我們在這方面有基礎。

In the schedules of what we just disclosed there are the historical financials as well.

在我們剛剛披露的時間表中，也有歷史財務數據。

Yes. Okay. Got it. Sorry for wasting time on the call here. Just on the resi front. And any real hiccups on the 454 actual channel like the installation because of the kind of dramatic price increases that we're seeing from the suppliers. And I don't know there's limited supply of containers and things like that going on. Any issues there?

是的。好的。知道了。很抱歉在這裡浪費了您的時間。就在住宅前面。由於我們看到供應商大幅提高價格，454 實際頻道上的任何實際問題（例如安裝）都會出現。我不知道貨櫃的供應是否有限以及諸如此類的情況。那裡有什麼問題嗎？

No, Steve, we're -- I mean the short answer is we're okay. I think that we have most of our 454B is coming from a specific supplier. They import some of the ingredients of 454 from China, and they have talked to us about passing that along. And of course, the team is in discussions about that right now. But if we do have to get into a discussion, we don't think that will be material overall. I think the shortage that everyone's talking about, as you said, was the canisters that was affecting the overall channel, and we see that resolving itself here in the second quarter.

不，史蒂夫，我們——我的意思是，簡短的回答是，我們還好。我認為我們的大部分 454B 都來自特定供應商。他們從中國進口了 454 的一些成分，並已與我們商談將這些成分轉交給我們。當然，團隊現在正在討論這個問題。但如果我們確實需要進行討論，我們認為總體而言這並不重要。我認為，正如您所說，大家談論的短缺是影響整個管道的罐子短缺，我們認為這個問題將在第二季度解決。

Okay. And then just 1 follow-up on Europe. That margin was a little bit lower than I was expecting. What do you think is a good kind of normalized rate, assuming Viessmann grows in line with your expectations? I mean that seems to be pretty depressed at a low double-digit rate, maybe what would be kind of a longer-term thought around that margin potential?

好的。然後只跟進歐洲問題。這個利潤率比我預期的要低一點。假設 Viessmann 按照您的預期成長，您認為什麼樣的標準化利率才算合適？我的意思是，在較低的兩位數成長率下，這似乎相當令人沮喪，也許圍繞著這一利潤潛力會有什麼樣的長期想法？

Our intention is to get that to mid-teens in the next couple of years. And so there is a lot of focus there. Next week is the benefit of it now being it sold its own segment. And I'll maybe provide a little bit of extra color there, but there are really three different businesses within this segment that are now under 1 umbrella. One is VCS, as you know, we acquired last year. There is a commercial back business. That's a little over $1 billion, where we've seen continued margin improvement, but still not where exactly where we'd like it to be. And then the third part is the Carrier's legacy residential like commercial business, which is about $700 million, $800 million in sales, and that business actually been operating with low -- like low single-digit operating margins. And so -- there is a lot of work being done now, and we expect, as I said, to get that to mid-teens operating margins in the next couple of years.

我們的目標是在未來幾年內將這一數字提高到十五六歲。因此，人們對此非常關注。下週它的好處是現在它出售了自己的部門。我可能會提供一些額外的信息，但實際上這個領域內有三個不同的業務，它們現在都歸屬於一個集團。一個是VCS，如你所知，我們去年收購了它。有商業後台業務。這一數字略高於 10 億美元，我們看到利潤率持續提高，但仍然沒有達到我們所希望的水平。第三部分是開利傳統的住宅和商業業務，價值約為 7 億美元，銷售額為 8 億美元，而該業務的營運利潤率實際上很低——只有個位數。所以 - 現在有很多工作要做，正如我所說，我們預計在未來幾年內將營業利潤率提高到十五六個百分點。

Yeah, okay, great, thanks a lot.

是的，好的，太好了，非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research.

垂直研究公司的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey Dave, just back to kind of order and subsidy action in Viessmann in Germany, what do you attribute the rush for subsidy applications? Was there sort of a view that maybe the new government wouldn't be supportive and there was a rush to get subsidies in. Just kind of wondering what the real signal from the market is and that stat you shared with us today.

嘿，謝謝你。大家早安。嘿，戴夫，回到德國菲斯曼的訂單和補貼行動，您認為補貼申請熱潮的原因是什麼？是否有人認為新政府可能不會支持，因此急於提供補貼。只是有點想知道來自市場的真實信號是什麼以及您今天與我們分享的統計數據是什麼。

It could be some of that Jeff, but I will tell you that the numbers were very overall very, very encouraging. Part of it could have been uncertainty about how the election would play out. Part of it may have just been pent-up demand. I mean you think about the first quarter of last year, subsidy applications were something around 9,000. The first quarter of this year was something like 65,000 it's just night and day. It's by far the highest first quarter of subsidy applications ever. We'll have to see how 2Q plays out. But given that the new coalition government has said that it will continue with the subsidy rates in the same levels they were in the 30% to 70% range gives us a lot of confidence that we see them continuing.

傑夫，這可能是其中的一部分，但我要告訴你，總體而言，這些數字非常非常令人鼓舞。部分原因可能是人們對選舉結果的不確定性。其中一部分可能只是被壓抑的需求。想想去年第一季度，補助申請大約有 9,000 份。今年第一季的數字大約是 65,000，這簡直就是天壤之別。這是迄今為止第一季補貼申請數量最高的一次。我們將拭目以待第二季的表現。但鑑於新聯合政府已表示將繼續維持補貼率在 30% 至 70% 的水平，我們非常有信心看到補貼率將持續下去。

And then just back to kind of the idea of gross tariffs, right? You kind of told us what's left on the $300 million. Obviously, you've been very, very cost focused from day 1 since spin. I just wonder if you could give us some examples of maybe the incremental things you did to offset whatever that residual was, how much of it was inside your 4 walls versus sourcing and other changes you might have made.

然後回到總關稅的概念，對嗎？您告訴我們這 3 億美元還剩下多少錢。顯然，從分拆的第一天起，您就非常非常注重成本。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們舉一些例子，說明您為抵消這些殘留物而採取的漸進措施，其中有多少是在您的內部進行的，有多少是採購或其他您可能做出的改變。

Yes. I would say that a lot of it was with working with our supply chain. What we've been very purposeful about over the past five years, is this concept of first localization; and 2 is dual sourcing. So this idea of dual sourcing has given us a little bit of flexibility with our supply base, not only in some of the negotiations and discussions we need to have but also as we try to navigate where the work may come from as tariffs play themselves out.

是的。我想說，這很大程度上與我們的供應鏈合作有關。過去五年來，我們一直堅持的理念是：一是在地化，二是雙重採購。因此，雙重採購的想法為我們的供應基礎提供了一點靈活性，不僅在我們需要進行的一些談判和討論中，而且在我們試圖確定關稅發揮作用後工作可能來自哪裡時也是如此。

So a lot of it's on sourcing. The team has done a great job on productivity. We continue to optimize our footprint. We've been doing that for a while, the amount of manufacturing we did for export out of China has come down significantly over the past few years. We still have a strong presence in China for China, and we have a China plus 1 strategy. But we've been very purposeful about our overall footprint strategy. We've been issuing productivity within our factories. And the last is just basically tightening our belts on overall G&A and cost.

所以很多都是關於採購的。該團隊在生產力方面做得非常出色。我們將繼續優化我們的足跡。我們這樣做已經有一段時間了，在過去幾年裡，我們為中國出口的製造量已大幅下降。我們在中國仍然擁有強大的影響力，並且我們擁有「中國+1」策略。但我們對於整體足跡策略的發展非常有目的性。我們一直在提高工廠的生產力。最後，我們基本上是在整體 G&A 和成本上勒緊褲腰帶。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Thank you, good morning guys.

謝謝大家，早安。

Hey Joe.

嘿，喬。

So, can.

所以可以。

So can we talk about the 454 transition just a little further. So clearly, good strength this quarter on the Americas resi business. I'm curious, Dave, do you have any kind of line of sight to how much of the strength we saw in 1Q might have been just like this transition and your distributors stocking in the 454B product. And then just maybe any additional color you guys just have on inventory levels at the distributor level.

那我們可以進一步討論一下 454 轉變嗎？顯然，本季美洲住宅業務表現強勁。我很好奇，戴夫，您是否能看出我們在第一季看到的強勁勢頭有多少可能就像這種轉變以及您的分銷商對 454B 產品的庫存一樣。然後也許你們在經銷商層級的庫存水準上還有任何額外的顏色。

Yes. I think -- I will tell you that the movements generally been okay. So we continue to movement. Inventory levels are a bit elevated versus where they were at the same time last year. So that's why I think that look, very strong first quarter of around 20%. We said the second quarter is going to be up 15% to 20%. We've said the full year will be high single digits to double digits.

是的。我認為——我會告訴你，這些動作總體上還不錯。所以我們繼續運動。與去年同期相比，庫存水準略有上升。所以我認為第一季的增幅非常強勁，約 20%。我們說過第二季將成長 15% 至 20%。我們說過，全年的成長率將達到高個位數到兩位數。

And it's really for two reasons. One is -- maybe three. One is that we are going to watch those inventory levels, and we're going to try to, as always, be purposeful to work with our channel partners to have those inventory levels come back to a more balanced level. Two is -- as you know, as we get into the second half, we have much tougher comps last year, the third quarter was up a little over 10% and the fourth quarter was up around 30%.

這其實有兩個原因。一個是──也許是三個。一是我們將專注於庫存水平，並且我們將一如既往地努力與我們的通路合作夥伴合作，使庫存水準恢復到更平衡的水平。二是——如你所知，進入下半年，我們面臨的競爭更加激烈，去年第三季成長略高於 10%，第四季成長約 30%。

So we'll just inherently have tougher comps in the second half. And then we'll watch the overall economy. So we've tried to derisk the full year forecast looking at those factors for the second half. But really good news is that we've gotten the price that we expected for the 454B we've gained 100 bps of share over the last year and the team is performing very, very well.

因此，我們在下半場必然會面臨更艱難的比賽。然後我們再觀察整體經濟。因此，我們試圖透過考慮下半年的這些因素來降低全年預測的風險。但真正的好消息是，我們已經獲得了預期的 454B 價格，去年我們的份額增加了 100 個基點，而且團隊表現非常非常出色。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then I'm sure we'll talk about this more at the Investor Day, but do you want to maybe expand a little bit on that data center business. I know you guys are rolling out quantum leap, and it looks like you're getting closer to a liquid cooling product by year-end. So any color you can give us on how that business is, how you're seeing that business over the next 12 to 24 months?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我相信我們會在投資者日進一步討論這個問題，但您是否想稍微擴展一下資料中心業務。我知道你們正在進行量子飛躍，看起來你們將在年底前推出液體冷卻產品。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下該業務的現狀以及您對未來 12 到 24 個月該業務的展望？

Yes. This is something that we were very excited to launch Quantum Leap. And we've been in bid proposals, especially with a couple of customers in Europe, not only for our CDUs, our cooling distribution units, but also the complete integrated Quantum Leap, which has traditional cooling and liquid cooling and ideally has our BSS and our ALC business with our nLight business as well. We think that's ultimately going to provide the most value to our customers.

是的。這是我們推出 Quantum Leap 時非常興奮的事情。我們一直在與歐洲的幾個客戶進行投標，不僅針對我們的 CDU、冷卻分配單元，還針對完整的整合 Quantum Leap，它具有傳統冷卻和液體冷卻功能，理想情況下還將我們的 BSS 和 ALC 業務與我們的 nLight 業務相結合。我們認為這最終將為我們的客戶提供最大的價值。

I will tell you, we're still in the first inning on the proposal, but we are getting a lot more interest, and that's how a lot of these discussions start. You propose something, you launch it. They start to come into your factories and look at the testing with your engineers. We did do we looked at acquisitions on the liquid cooling side, but our team in a very short period of time, developed our own organic CDU, and it was kind of point design for the sweet spot of the market. So we're very excited about it. I would tell you that we haven't gotten a lot of sales yet from it, but we're optimistic given the nature of the value proposition and some of the ongoing discussions that, that could be a bit of a game changer.

我可以告訴你，我們對該提案的討論還處於第一階段，但我們已經得到了越來越多的關注，許多討論就是這樣開始的。你提出某項建議，你就實施它。他們開始進入你們的工廠並與你們的工程師一起檢查測試情況。我們確實考慮過液體冷卻方面的收購，但我們的團隊在很短的時間內開發了我們自己的有機 CDU，這是一種針對市場最佳點的點設計。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我想告訴你，我們還沒有從中獲得很多銷售，但考慮到價值主張的性質和一些正在進行的討論，我們感到樂觀，這可能會改變遊戲規則。

Deane Dray with RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping Patrick can take us through the free cash flow dynamics in the quarter. It was a bit light versus seasonal. You just mentioned a bit higher inventory and you reaffirmed free cash flow for the year, but what was unique about this quarter?

謝謝。大家早安。我希望帕特里克能帶我們了解本季的自由現金流動態。與季節性相比，它有點太輕了。您剛剛提到庫存略高，並重申了今年的自由現金流，但本季有什麼獨特之處？

Actually, Deane, actually, I think it's actually seasonally a stronger than typical Q1 tends to be somewhat light. What I mentioned was that in this Q1 that working capital was less of a use of cash than it typically is, and particularly on the payable side. So actually, we're quite pleased to start out the year with over $400 million in free cash flow, which, as I mentioned, I think the last 3, 4 years were a little lighter than that. On inventory, again, nothing unusual in Q1. There is the seasonal buildup that starts in Q1, and then we expect to burn some of that off by the balance of the year and generally, there remains opportunity in our overall inventory levels.

實際上，迪恩，實際上，我認為從季節性來看，第一季的表現比典型的第一季要強一些。我提到的是，在第一季度，營運資金的現金使用量比通常要少，特別是在應付方面。因此實際上，我們很高興今年年初就擁有超過 4 億美元的自由現金流，正如我所提到的，我認為過去 3、4 年的自由現金流要少一些。就庫存而言，第一季同樣沒有什麼異常。從第一季開始出現季節性積累，然後我們預計到今年年底將消耗掉部分庫存，總體而言，我們的整體庫存水準仍有機會。

Great thanks for that. And then can you just expand on services. They did well this quarter, just the plan for the year? Any new initiatives there?

非常感謝。然後你就可以擴充服務了。他們這個季度表現不錯，這只是全年的計劃嗎？有什麼新舉措嗎？

Yes. This has just become such a part of our DNA, Deane. We have this mantra we use internally, which I've been using externally, which is this double digit forever. So One of the big changes that we saw was we launched an initiative in the United States where we really tried to harmonize every single branch around not only the specific metrics that we're driving, but institutionalize it in the apps and the tools that all of our service technicians and sales folks use.

是的。這已經成為我們 DNA 的一部分了，迪恩。我們內部使用這個咒語，我也一直在外部使用這個咒語，這個咒語永遠是兩位數。因此，我們看到的一大變化是，我們在美國發起了一項倡議，我們真正試圖協調每一個分支機構，不僅圍繞我們正在推動的具體指標，而且在我們所有的服務技術人員和銷售人員使用的應用程式和工具中將其製度化。

And now we're cascading that globally. So just the amount of rigor we have around productivity, unique offerings and of course, our same playbook, which is Blue Edge multi here we have base offerings, mid-tier high-end offerings, driving attachment rates. We had the best growth in attachment rates that in a quarter that we've ever seen. We went from like 48% to 60% a quarter. using the rigor around the tools. The truth is we want to get that to 100% that every time you sell a chiller, it comes with a long-term agreement. But I'll tell you the progress to 60% in a short period of time has been encouraging. And I think 1 of the things you'll be hearing from us a lot more on is Madsen upgrades.

現在我們正在全球推廣這項措施。因此，我們在生產力、獨特產品以及我們的相同劇本（即 Blue Edge 多種產品）方面的嚴格程度，這裡有基礎產品、中階高端產品，推動附著率。我們本季的附著率成長速度是有史以來最好的。透過嚴格使用工具，我們的季度成功率從 48% 提高到了 60%。事實上，我們希望 100% 實現這一點，即每次銷售冷水機組時，都附帶一份長期協議。但我要告訴你，在短時間內達到 60% 的進步是令人鼓舞的。我認為您將從我們這裡聽到的更多內容之一就是 Madsen 升級。

A lot of the -- as new construction in some of the major cities in the world have become a little bit slower, we see a huge opportunity in certain places in the world around mods and upgrades. So we view a country like Saudi to be a lot more new construction, but it may be that Dubai is more mods and upgrades. So that's been very encouraging, and it's across all of our businesses. So I'm confident this year, we'll be double digits again.

隨著世界上一些主要城市的新建築建設速度放緩，我們看到世界某些地方在改造和升級方面存在著巨大的機會。因此，我們認為沙烏地阿拉伯這樣的國家會有更多的新建築，但杜拜可能會有更多的改造和升級。這是非常令人鼓舞的，而且它涉及我們所有的業務。所以我相信今年我們會再次達到兩位數。

Joseph O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的約瑟夫‧奧迪亞 (Joseph O'Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you unpack the tariffs a little bit just in terms of sizing the cost headwind this year and then the breakdown of what you're doing on the cost and price side. And then any specifics on the China component of that cost headwind as well as any other core you can give? The last part of it is what does this mean for resi pricing if we think about back half of the year, 454 normal pricing and then now the addition, what kind of price mix you're looking at on resi in the back half?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。您能否從今年成本逆風的規模角度稍微解釋一下關稅問題，然後具體說明您在成本和價格方面所做的事情。那麼，您能提供關於中國成本逆風因素以及其他核心因素的具體細節嗎？最後一部分是，如果我們考慮下半年，這對住宅定價意味著什麼，454 個正常定價，然後現在加上，您在下半年看到住宅的什麼樣的價格組合？

Look, Joe, the team has done a great job I think resting tariffs head on. I would tell you on the USMCA, for example, we're now just under 100% USMCA compliant, and that's a group of folks across our supply chain team across our customs and legal team folks working very well together to make sure that we, of course, are US MCA compliant virtually across the board. When we look at it, we looked at the tariffs as they exist today, and we frankly have.

聽著，喬，我認為團隊在擱置關稅方面做得很好。以 USMCA 為例，我想告訴你，我們現在幾乎 100% 遵守 USMCA，我們的供應鏈團隊、海關和法律團隊的人員通力合作，確保我們幾乎全面遵守 USMCA。當我們審視這個問題時，我們審視了目前存在的關稅，坦白說，我們已經這麼做了。

As we look at the cost actions we've taken, whether with our supply chain or in our own productivity in our own factories or other actions, we've effectively mitigated all but $300 million of it. And that $300 million, we said we would mitigate through price. That is going to be a lot of price in the Americas and the price will be a lot in resi. So we feel that the team has been very effective at working very transparently and collaboratively with our channel.

當我們審視我們所採取的成本行動時，無論是透過我們的供應鏈，還是我們自己工廠的生產力或其他行動，我們都有效地減輕了除 3 億美元以外的所有損失。我們說我們會透過價格來緩解這 3 億美元。這在美洲的價格會很高，在住宅的價格也會很高。因此，我們認為團隊在與我們的管道進行非常透明和協作的合作方面非常有效。

Obviously, no 1 likes price increases, our channel. But has been very clear eyed and understanding of the fact that we've done our best to mitigate as much as we can through cost and then the rest we've done through price.

顯然，我們的通路沒有人喜歡漲價。但我們非常清楚並理解，我們已經盡力透過成本來減輕盡可能多的損失，其餘的損失我們透過價格來減輕。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the commercial HVAC Americas, the nondata center business up high single digit is actually a little bit more surprising, I'd say, than the data center growth. Can you unpack that a little bit from renovation, new construction price I'd say some of the nonoriented to indicators aren't exactly encouraging, but that growth rate is pretty good. And so what you're doing versus what you see in the market?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，在美洲商業 HVAC 方面，非資料中心業務的高個位數成長實際上比資料中心的成長更令人驚訝。您能否從裝潢、新建築價格方面稍微解釋一下？我認為有些非導向指標不十分令人鼓舞，但成長率還是相當不錯的。那麼，您所做的事情與您在市場上看到的情況相比如何？

Yes. Part of it, frankly, is free up capacity. I would say that now that we've -- we're going to increase our capacity for Barco chillers by 4x over a period of a few years in here in the Americas because we effectively are expanding our facility in Charlotte, North Carolina, and then we're adding -- we've repurposed another facility for both water cooled and air cooled. That's freed up our internal sales force and our channel partners aggressively after some of the opportunities. the mega projects have been very strong for us. So that dedicated vertical team that we have focused on data centers also focuses on the mega projects with the reshoring activity that we've been here in the United States. Health care pharma are both strong, as I mentioned. And we've been getting very good share in some of the electronic fab that we've seen going up. So you're right that ABI has been weak. Commercial real estate has continued to be weak after a year recently over these last few years. But we've been offsetting some of the areas that are very visibly weak with areas that are sort of quietly strong.

是的。坦白說，部分原因在於釋放產能。我想說的是，現在我們已經——我們將在幾年內將美洲的巴可冷卻器的產能提高 4 倍，因為我們正在有效地擴建位於北卡羅來納州夏洛特的工廠，然後我們還將增加——我們已經將另一個工廠重新用於水冷和風冷。在一些機會之後，這釋放了我們的內部銷售團隊和通路合作夥伴的動力。大型專案對我們來說非常重要。因此，我們專注於資料中心的專門垂直團隊也專注於我們在美國進行的回流活動的大型專案。正如我所提到的，醫療保健製藥行業都很強大。我們在一些正在崛起的電子工廠中獲得了很大的份額。所以你說得對，ABI 一直很弱。商業地產近幾年來持續低迷。但我們一直在用一些悄悄增強的領域來抵消一些明顯薄弱的領域。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Snyder with Morgan Stanley

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德

I wanted to ask on America's resi. The $75 million or so that you guys kind of called out in Q4 as pre-buy. Did that come out in Q1 and was just overwhelmed by strength in mixed tail and elsewhere? Or is that expected to come out in Q2, even with this 15%, 20% Americas guide? Or do you just -- maybe I don't even think it comes out anymore?

我想問一下美國的居留權。你們在第四季所說的預購金額約為 7,500 萬美元。這是在 Q1 中出現的嗎？只是被混合尾巴和其他地方的力量所淹沒了？或者即使美洲的指導值為 15%、20%，預計也會在第二季公佈嗎？或者你只是——也許我什至認為它不再出現了？

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's honestly not a very perfect science because what you're really trying to figure out with prebuy were people buying for demand that otherwise would have been in '25, but they bought it in '24. So what we really have to do is look at movement and look at the underlying demand. So the movement in the first quarter was about what we thought. So the movement from our distributors to the dealers has been fine. It's been up -- in April, the movement has been up in the mid-single-digit range.

老實說，這並不是一門非常完美的科學，因為你真正想弄清楚的是，預購是人們為了滿足原本應該在 25 年出現的需求而購買的，但他們在 24 年就購買了。所以我們真正要做的是觀察動向並觀察潛在的需求。因此，第一季的走勢和我們想像的差不多。因此，從我們的經銷商到經銷商的流動一直很順利。4 月份，這一數字一直在上升，漲幅達到了個位數中段。

The thing that we really have to watch and that we continue to watch is the base inventory levels. On some of the split side, they are higher than where they were at the same time last year. So maybe there's some of that, that's kind of made its way into the inventory level. So we'll want to we'll want to be careful with our partners how much that we shut in and then making sure that, that movement continues because we are -- we have much better tools now than we used to have to make sure that inventory levels in the channel are about what we thought. And we're very purposeful with our channel partners to control that.

我們真正需要關注並且會持續關注的是基礎庫存水準。在某些分裂方面，它們比去年同期的水平要高。因此，也許其中一些已經進入了庫存水平。因此，我們要與我們的合作夥伴謹慎地了解我們關閉了多少庫存，然後確保這一舉措能夠繼續下去，因為我們現在擁有比以前更好的工具，可以確保渠道中的庫存水平與我們想像的一致。我們與通路夥伴一起非常有目的地控制這一點。

In fact, the team and I will be with our distribution partners this weekend, and we'll be deep diving all of this. But a very strong start to the year, 15% to 20% is what we expect here in 2Q, and I think we'll be measured as we get into the second half. But overall, another good year for resi in that 10% range, give or take a point or two.

事實上，我和團隊本週末將與我們的分銷合作夥伴一起深入探討這一切。但今年開局非常強勁，我們預計第二季的成長率將達到 15% 至 20%，我認為進入下半年時我們會有所調整。但總體而言，對於房地產來說，今年將是好年頭，漲幅約 10% 左右，漲幅在一、兩個百分點左右。

Alright thank you I appreciate that. I wanted to follow up on service. And clearly, the focus there has driven great growth for the service business with a double-digit forever mantra holding strong. But I guess my question is, is it also helping you win on the equipment side for some of the bigger applied projects, the stronger service offering. Just anything you could talk about that flywheel of actually driving equipment on the back of service?

好的，謝謝，我很感激。我想跟進服務。顯然，對這一領域的關注推動了服務業務的巨大增長，並且兩位數的永久口號仍然牢固。但我想我的問題是，它是否也能幫助您在一些更大的應用程式項目的設備方面獲勝，提供更強大的服務。您能談談服務背後實際驅動設備的飛輪嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, 100%. We look at our commercial HVAC business overall, I would say the team has really differentiated ourselves in Europe and in Asia, where I think that, that flywheel and our presence, not only the upfront but the spec engineers upfront, the sales force, our customer intimacy, our relationships, our presence, our brand, that's made us traditionally number one or two in Asia and in Europe. We've been very frank that we've been number three in the Americas, and that's been the opportunity in front of us. And the team in the Americas has really been turning around that business. We've been -- we've said that we're going to add 1,000 technicians over the next 5 years in the United States.

是的，100%。我們整體來看我們的商用暖通空調業務，我想說我們的團隊在歐洲和亞洲確實脫穎而出，我認為，飛輪和我們的存在，不僅是前期，還有前期的規格工程師、銷售隊伍、我們的客戶親密度、我們的關係、我們的存在、我們的品牌，這些使我們傳統上在亞洲和歐洲排名第一或第二。我們坦白說，我們在美洲地區排名第三，這就是擺在我們面前的機會。美洲團隊確實扭轉了這項業務。我們曾經說過，未來 5 年內我們將在美國增加 1,000 名技術人員。

We've said that we're adding salespeople, our relationship with not only our direct sales force, but to some extent, we go through distribution in the United States, only where it makes sense. And those distribution partners have good relationship with the mechanical contractors and our ability to provide connected devices to provide a bound and to be able to support the customers throughout the life cycle is clearly advantageous. It is an entire flywheel. We've recognized that. We've been investing in the resources to build out that flywheel. And now I would say we're winning more than our fair share in the Americas, as I think you'll -- you've seen and you'll continue to see in our numbers.

我們說過，我們正在增加銷售人員，我們不僅在與直銷隊伍建立關係，而且在某種程度上，我們還透過美國的分銷管道，只在有意義的地方。這些分銷合作夥伴與機械承包商有著良好的關係，我們能夠提供連接設備以提供約束並能夠在整個生命週期內為客戶提供支持，這顯然是有利的。它是一個完整的飛輪。我們已經認識到這一點。我們一直投入資源來打造這個飛輪。現在我想說，我們在美洲贏得的份額已經超過了我們應得的份額，我想你們已經看到了，並且還會繼續從我們的數據中看到這一點。

Thank you Dave. I appreciate that. Yeah thank you.

謝謝你，戴夫。我很感激。是的，謝謝。

Amit Mehrotra with UBS.

瑞銀的 Amit Mehrotra。

Patrick, I just want to come back to the new resi Americas guide, high single, low double. I think in your previous guidance of high single, it was all kind of price mix and then volume or units were flat to down. Can you just update that in terms of what you're assuming? And then obviously, Europe resi and like commercial orders were just a lot stronger than the organic growth right now. And I don't know if that's a comp issue or maybe if that's a fair assumption that we should expect a decent sequential uptick in revenue as we progress through the year.

派崔克，我只是想回到新的美國住宅指南，高單人房，低雙人房。我認為，在您之前對高單的指導中，它是各種價格組合，然後數量或單位持平或下降。您能否根據您的假設來更新一下？顯然，歐洲住宅和商業訂單目前的成長比有機成長強勁得多。我不知道這是否是一個補償問題，或者這是否是一個合理的假設，即隨著今年的進展，我們應該預期收入將出現連續的大幅增長。

Yes. Look, let me take the first 1 and Patrick will take the second. If when we said high single digits, we assume that almost all of that came from mix because we assume that you get with about 10% higher price on the 454B than the 410A, and if you assume that, that becomes 70%, 80%, 80% of the total volume for the year, you're into that range of 7%, 8% from just regulatory mix. I think what we've seen is probably a little bit better on the price side overall, part of that because of that's where tariffs landed and part of it is because we've seen better price realization, and we'll probably get a little bit more full year volume than we originally anticipated. And then Patrick, on the second.

是的。瞧，讓我拿第一個，派崔克拿第二個。如果我們說的是高個位數，我們假設幾乎所有這些都來自混合，因為我們假設 454B 的價格比 410A 高出約 10%，如果你假設，那就變成了全年總量的 70%、80%、80%，那麼你就進入了 7%、8% 的範圍，而這僅僅是來自監管組合。我認為我們看到的價格方面總體上可能會好一些，部分原因是因為關稅已經到位，部分原因是我們看到了更好的價格實現，而且我們全年的銷量可能會比最初預期的多一些。然後是派崔克，第二個發言者。

Yes. On the Europe comment, the way you can think about it, so Q1 was down about 7% in sales, with commercial HVAC up mid-single digits, resi light commercial, a little more than about 10%. We expect growth actually to start in Q2 for the balance of the year, and that will continue in Q2 for the balance of the year, and that will continue, we think, for both commercial APAC and resi. Actually, commercial HVAC within Europe, we have a strong pipeline and we think that the growth will accelerate from mid-single digits in Q1 and we'll end up double digits in the second half of the year and double digits for the year. And then with respect to the resi part of our European segment, we think that will be low single digits for the balance of the year starting in Q2, as Dave mentioned, modest growth and continue for the balance of the year. So overall, full year double-digit growth in commercial HVAC within the region and resi about flat, leading the overall segment to low single digits.

是的。關於歐洲的評論，你可以這樣想，第一季的銷售額下降了約 7%，其中商用 HVAC 銷售額增長了中等個位數，而輕型商用銷售額增長了約 10%。我們預計，今年餘下時間的增長實際上將從第二季度開始，並且這種增長將在第二季度持續下去，而且我們認為，無論是對於亞太地區的商業還是住宅而言，這種增長都將繼續下去。實際上，在歐洲的商用暖通空調領域，我們擁有強大的管道，我們認為成長將從第一季的個位數中段加速，到今年下半年將達到兩位數，全年也將達到兩位數。然後，就我們歐洲分部的住宅部分而言，我們認為從第二季度開始，今年的餘額將保持低個位數增長，正如戴夫提到的那樣，今年餘額將保持適度增長並持續下去。因此總體而言，該地區商用暖通空調全年實現兩位數成長，而住宅則基本持平，導致整體部門成長率降至個位數以下。

Got it. So just, Dave, just circling back on what you said, it looks like both volume and mix is an attribution to the revision of resi HVAC, which is top line, which is great. One final question, if I could, just maybe high level. And listen, you don't have to comment on it if you don't want to, but you had a proxy target out there of $3.60 of earnings. It's really hard to forecast that far out. Maybe just give us some puts and takes on your confidence around that number in terms of above the line versus below the line items? I know you got some tax dynamics, too, with Viessmann tax losses, things like that. But just talk about why you put that out there? Why was that the right number and maybe the confidence around below or above the line items on that?

知道了。所以，戴夫，回到你剛才說的話，看起來音量和混合都歸因於 resi HVAC 的修訂，這是頂線，這很好。最後一個問題，如果可以的話，可能是高層次的。聽著，如果你不想的話，你可以不對此發表評論，但你有一個代理目標是 3.60 美元的收益。預測那麼遠的事情確實很困難。也許只是就線上和線下項目而言，告訴我們您對這個數字的信心？我知道您也了解一些稅收動態，例如 Viessmann 稅收損失等。但請談談你為什麼要把它放在那裡？為什麼這是正確的數字，並且可能對該數字下方或上方的項目有信心？

Yes. I won't comment on why the number is out there and so on. I think that was very well described in the proxy. But -- and we'll talk about a framework at the upcoming Investor Day in mid-May. But the way we are thinking about our business and that's our current value creation framework, as we target organic growth of 6% to 8% over the medium term. This year, organic growth is mid-single digits. You also have heard us say that we target over 50 basis points of margin expansion each year. we've done better than that the last several years. And this year, again, we'll do better than that than 50 bps. And so clearly, we would expect all those equal to continue on that path.

是的。我不會評論為什麼會有這個數字等等。我認為代理中對此進行了很好的描述。但是——我們將在五月中旬即將到來的投資者日上討論一個框架。但我們對業務的思考方式以及我們目前的價值創造框架是我們的目標是在中期內實現 6% 至 8% 的有機成長。今年，有機成長率達到了中等個位數。您也聽我們說過，我們的目標是每年將利潤率提高 50 個基點以上。過去幾年，我們的表現比這更好。今年，我們的業績將再次優於 50 個基點。因此，顯然，我們希望所有平等的人都能繼續走這條路。

So organic growth at attractive rates, attractive margin expansion as well as to earnings conversion close to 30%. That's aligned with that. On top of that, we will have the benefit of the repo from this year that will carry over next year. As you probably know, our free cash flow generation is quite strong after paying the dividend, there is still well over $1.5 billion of free cash available for acquisitions or share repurchases. And then the last item you meant which relates to -- I think it is known. We've disclosed that we have a tax benefit that we have on the books. And of course, we would like to monetize that and working hard to make that happen and to bring down our effective tax rate going forward. And I think with those building blocks, I think it's not unreasonable to see a path towards $3.60.

因此，有機成長率具有吸引力，利潤率擴張具有吸引力，獲利轉換率也接近 30%。這與此一致。除此之外，我們也將享受今年回購協議帶來的好處，並將延續到明年。您可能知道，在支付股息後，我們的自由現金流產生能力相當強勁，仍有超過 15 億美元的自由現金可用於收購或股票回購。然後，您提到的最後一項與之相關——我認為這是已知的。我們已經披露，我們有帳簿上的稅收優惠。當然，我們希望將其貨幣化，並努力實現這一目標，從而降低未來的有效稅率。我認為，有了這些基礎，看到價格達到 3.60 美元並非不合理。

Very clear, thank you very much appreciate it.

非常清楚，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies

Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann

I'm wondering if we can just look at CST a little bit, the mid-single-digit growth forecast kind of unchanged, but it feels like some of the industry forecasts around things like truck have deteriorated. So I know your mix is a little different than some others, but maybe just call out a little bit what's driving that mid-single-digit growth in.

我想知道我們是否可以稍微看一下 CST，中等個位數的成長預測基本上沒有變化，但感覺卡車等領域的一些行業預測已經惡化。所以我知道你的組合與其他一些組合略有不同，但也許可以稍微說明一下推動中等個位數成長的因素。

Yes. When we look at -- I think some of that refers specifically to the North American truck trailer business, where ACT did say that the full year for trailer would be down 15%. And I would say when we look at -- there's 2 things. Number 1 is trailers just a subset of the overall NATT market. And 2 is we're not really sure we believe the number.

是的。當我們看的時候——我認為其中一些是專門指北美卡車拖車業務，ACT 確實說過拖車全年銷量將下降 15%。我想說的是，當我們看的時候——有兩件事。排名第一的是預告片，它只是整個 NATT 市場的一個子集。第二，我們不太確定我們是否相信這個數字。

So I think when we look at it, we think that you have this dichotomy where there's a lot of pent-up demand for trailers because it's a very old fleet but you also see this overall issue with people looking at what's happening with tariffs and the economy, and I think they're trying to be judicious on some of their spend to update some of those fleets. So as that plays itself out, we'll have to see how the year plays out. But we expect for the full year, North American truck trailer to be up in the mid-single-digit range.

因此，我認為，當我們審視這個問題時，我們會發現存在這樣一種矛盾：由於拖車的車隊非常老舊，因此存在大量被壓抑的拖車需求；但同時，我們也看到人們關注關稅和經濟形勢的總體問題，我認為他們正在嘗試明智地投入一些資金來更新一些車隊。因此，隨著事態的發展，我們將拭​​目以待今年的趨勢。但我們預計，全年北美卡車拖車銷量將成長中等個位數。

We expect European truck trailer to be closer to flattish probably volume is down a bit, and we'll see aftermarket growth there. But you have a similar dynamic. You have some aging fleets, but there are some questions around the economy. Container will be strong. We had a very strong first quarter, up around 20%. We think it will be up in the high single-digit range. And like every part of the business, aftermarket will be up double digits and the team have done a great job expanding our LYNX offering and really pushing some of the upgrade opportunities. So we think that the overall transportation segment is poised for mid-single-digit growth this year.

我們預計歐洲卡車拖車的銷量將接近平穩，可能銷量會略有下降，但我們將看到售後市場的成長。但你也有類似的動態。你們有一些老化的車隊，但經濟方面也存在一些問題。容器將會很堅固。我們第一季表現非常強勁，成長了約 20%。我們認為其漲幅將達到高個位數。就像業務的每個部分一樣，售後市場將實現兩位數成長，團隊在擴展我們的 LYNX 產品和真正推動一些升級機會方面做得非常出色。因此，我們認為今年整個運輸業將實現中等個位數的成長。

Great. Helpful. And then it looks like margin is also going to be sort of on the upswing here as the year progresses. Any sense of how we should kind of model that cadence.

偉大的。很有幫助。看起來，隨著​​時間的推移，利潤率也將呈現上升趨勢。我們該如何模擬這種節奏？

Actually, we expect -- so Steve Fredrik here, so we're about 15% in Q1. We would expect that to pick up by about 200 bps or so in Q2 and stay at about that level. for the balance of the year, maybe Q4 a little lighter.

實際上，我們預計——史蒂夫·弗雷德里克 (Steve Fredrik) 在這裡，所以我們第一季的成長速度約為 15%。我們預計第二季的成長將回升約 200 個基點，並保持在該水準。就今年的剩餘時間而言，第四季的成長速度可能會稍微輕鬆一些。

Perfect thank you guys.

非常感謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tommy Moll with Stephens.

湯米·莫爾 (Tommy Moll) 和史蒂芬斯 (Stephens)。

Morning and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey Tommy.

嘿，湯米。

David, I wanted to start on your Americas light commercial business, noting the comps there can be tricky. But I'm just observing that the outlook was reduced pretty significantly from up low to mid-singles last time we spoke, and now we're looking at down doubles. What were some of the factors that changed there in your outlook?

大衛，我想開始談談您在美洲的輕型商用業務，並指出那裡的比較可能會比較棘手。但我只是觀察到，上次我們談話時，前景已經從低單打大幅下降到中單打，現在我們正在考慮雙打。哪些因素改變了您的觀點？

I think it's a combination of a couple of things. I would say the first thing is that the first quarter surprised us to the downside there, Tommy. We did not anticipate that the first quarter was going to be down as much as it was. And then we look at 2Q here and the start to the quarter has not seen an appreciable uptake. So we balanced the first quarter -- the first half of the year to be down. We think the second half will recover a bit. But I think that there were -- some of the customers that, again, are on that small and medium type business, I think they really did slow some of their spending here in 1Q, and we think that continues into the second quarter.

我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。我想說的第一件事是，第一季的業績讓我們感到驚訝，湯米。我們沒有預料到第一季的下滑幅度會這麼大。然後我們來看看第二季度，本季開始時並沒有明顯的成長。因此，我們平衡了第一季——上半年的下滑趨勢。我們認為下半年會有所復甦。但我認為，對於一些從事中小型企業的客戶來說，我認為他們在第一季確實減少了一些支出，而且我們認為這種情況會持續到第二季​​。

And I think K-12 some of the pausing on some of the bond funding that's coming at the state level and the local level, that slowed a bit more than we thought. Look, this is not something that we are in panic mode on. It's a great business, high margins. We're coming off a few years of phenomenal growth, especially '21 through '23. I think we took a lot of share.

我認為 K-12 的一些州和地方債券融資暫停了，速度比我們想像的要慢。瞧，這並不是讓我們驚慌失措的事。這是一項偉大的事業，利潤很高。我們剛剛經歷了幾年的驚人成長，尤其是 21 年至 23 年。我認為我們佔據了很大份額。

We reduced our lead times probably earlier than some of our peers, which gave us some lift. And now I think they're shipping out of some of the backlog that they had built, which is fine. I think we have a good product line. We have some differentiated products. We have a great channel. We've got great brands. And look, the market will loosen itself up as we get into the second half. And I think we tried to derisk the full year plan by saying it'd be down double digits.

我們縮短交貨時間的時間可能比一些同行更早，這給了我們一些幫助。現在我認為他們正在處理一些積壓的訂單，這很好。我認為我們擁有良好的產品線。我們有一些差異化的產品。我們有一個很棒的頻道。我們擁有優秀的品牌。隨著我們進入下半年，市場將會放鬆。我認為，我們試圖透過宣布銷售額將下降兩位數來降低全年計劃的風險。

Thanks for the detail, Dave. I wanted to pivot to a question on the Google partnership that you discussed earlier in the call. Is this participation in a demand response kind of program? Or what additional detail can you give particularly around the monetization opportunity there?

謝謝你的詳細說明，戴夫。我想轉到您在電話會議早些時候討論過的有關 Google 合作夥伴關係的問題。這是參與需求響應類型的計畫嗎？或者您能否提供關於那裡的貨幣化機會的更多細節？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, we've been working closely with Carrier Energy with the utilities, and the whole concept is that we can have an appreciable impact on the grid, especially during peak hours. If you think about the demand that is being added by the data centers to the grid.

是的，我們一直與開利能源和公用事業公司密切合作，我們的整體理念是，我們可以對電網產生顯著的影響，尤其是在高峰時段。如果你考慮一下資料中心對電網增加的需求。

Where you really have the biggest challenge for the utilities is during peak, and you think about what most of the demand is during peak during peak, it's your HVAC system, which is now because more than 40% of our sales are heat pumps. You have both cooling and heating, putting demand on the grid during peak hours. What we need is more intelligence as we connect those devices and we look at how to control those in an automated fashion. We have an opportunity to partner with Google to use their AI and analytics tools which are phenomenal and work.

對於公用事業來說，最大的挑戰是在高峰期，想想高峰期最大的需求是什麼，那就是暖通空調系統，因為我們現在 40% 以上的銷售額都是熱泵。您既需要製冷，又需要供暖，高峰時段對電網的需求很大。當我們連接這些設備時，我們需要更多的智能，並研究如何以自動化的方式控制它們。我們有機會與Google合作，使用他們出色且有效的人工智慧和分析工具。

With them as a company work with their cloud with them as a cloud partner as well and be able to provide more value and you think about the digitization of energy and digitization of cooling devices. This is all about using traditional might have been appliances to use digital to create analytics to create more value, and we see this Google partnership. As a tremendous win-win opportunity not only for us and Google but for our utility partners as well. In fact, we had a call with Google yesterday and we're in the early phases of this relationship, but as you think about the use cases, the opportunities is very encouraging.

與他們作為一家公司合作，與他們作為雲端合作夥伴，能夠提供更多價值，並且您可以考慮能源數位化和冷卻設備的數位化。這一切都是關於使用傳統的設備，利用數位技術進行分析，從而創造更多價值，我們看到了與Google的合作。這不僅對我們和谷歌來說是一個巨大的雙贏機會，對我們的公用事業合作夥伴也是如此。事實上，我們昨天與Google進行了通話，我們的合作關係還處於早期階段，但當你考慮用例時，你會發現機會非常令人鼓舞。

No, go ahead please.

不，請繼續。

Okay. I got it. So we want to thank you all for joining us today. As a quick reminder, before we wrap, we will be in New York City, May 19, 8:30 for our Investor Day. We encourage you to join us and listen in. Our whole focus will be on accelerating growth. You're going to be hearing from not only Patrick and myself, but we'll have our 4 segment leaders there as well, and you'll hear from then with some really exciting initiatives we have to drive sustained growth over the long term. So thank you all for joining us today, and we'll see you on May 19.

好的。我得到了它。因此，我們要感謝大家今天的參加。簡單提醒一下，在結束之前，我們將於 5 月 19 日上午 8:30 在紐約參加投資者日。我們鼓勵您加入我們並聆聽。我們的全部精力將放在加速成長上。您不僅會聽到帕特里克和我本人的演講，還會聽到我們 4 個部門領導的演講，屆時您將聽到我們為推動長期持續增長而採取的一些真正令人興奮的舉措。感謝大家今天的參與，我們 5 月 19 日再見。

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。