開利公司 (CARR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Sam Pearlstein, Vice President of Investor Relations and CFO of the Fire & Security segment. Please go ahead, sir.

早安，歡迎參加開利 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁兼消防與安全部門首席財務官 Sam Pearlstein。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Carrier's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me here today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer. We will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business.

謝謝，早安，歡迎參加開利 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長戴維·吉特林 (David Gitlin)；和財務長帕特里克·戈里斯。我們將在這次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計原則措施，管理層認為這些措施與評估業務的財務表現有關。

These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available to download from Carrier's website at ir.carrier.com. The company reminds listeners that the sales, earnings, and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided during the call are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些非 GAAP 指標與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，收益報告可從 Carrier 網站 ir.carrier.com 下載。該公司提醒聽眾，電話會議期間提供的銷售、收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。

Carrier's SEC filings, including Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

Carrier 向 SEC 提交的文件（包括表格 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K）提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

Before turning the call over to Dave, please turn to page 3. And with the commercial and residential fire businesses qualifying as held for sale during the third quarter, the Fire & Security segment in aggregate met the criteria to be presented as discontinued operations. Historical sales margins, and earnings per share in the appendix on page 27 and 28 to help for comparison.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，請先翻到第 3 頁。由於商業和住宅消防業務在第三季度符合待售條件，消防與安全部門總體上滿足了作為終止業務列出的標準。第 27 頁和第 28 頁附錄中的歷史銷售利潤率和每股盈餘有助於進行比較。

To help you interpret the results, continuing operations includes the HVAC segment, the refrigeration segment, including commercial refrigeration. And the corporate expenses and eliminations guidance now includes the corporate expenses that were previously allocated to the Fire & Security segment, as well as the controls business that was part of the Fire & Security segment.

為了幫助您解釋結果，持續營運包括 HVAC 部門、冷凍部門（包括商業冷凍）。公司費用和沖銷指南現在包括以前分配給消防與安全部門的公司費用，以及屬於消防與安全部門一部分的控制業務。

Results discussed on this call will be continuing operations only with the exception of preliminary free cash flow, unless stated otherwise. Once the call is open for questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. And with that, I'd turn -- I'd like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Dave Gitlin.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議討論的結果將僅是持續經營，初步自由現金流除外。一旦電話會議開放提問，我們要求您只提出一個問題和一項後續行動。說到這裡，我想把電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Dave Gitlin。

Well, thank you, Sam. And let me start by saying a heartfelt thanks to you for everything that you have done for Carrier over the past five years. We wish you the best as the CFO of the commercial and residential fire business. I'd also like to welcome Mike [Redner], who will succeed Sam and joined carrier on November 4.

嗯，謝謝你，山姆。首先，請容許我對您過去五年為開利所做的一切表示衷心的感謝。我們祝福您作為商業和住宅消防業務的財務長一切順利。我還要歡迎 Mike [Redner]，他將接替 Sam 並於 11 月 4 日加入營運商。

Our team continues to perform while we put the finishing touches on our transformation. Organic orders were up 20% -- about 20% compared to last year. And we continue to increase our backlog, positioning us for continued growth as we head into 2025.

在我們完成轉型的最後階段時，我們的團隊將繼續表現出色。有機訂單增長了 20%——與去年相比大約增長了 20%。我們繼續增加積壓訂單，為進入 2025 年持續成長做好準備。

The team drove 4% organic sales growth by leaning into verticals of strength to help offset continued headwinds in residential and light commercial HVAC in Europe and China. Importantly, we delivered double-digit aftermarket growth, and we are on a path for our 4th year in a row of double-digit growth.

該團隊透過發揮垂直優勢，幫助抵消歐洲和中國住宅和輕型商業暖通空調領域持續面臨的不利因素，推動了 4% 的有機銷售成長。重要的是，我們實現了售後市場兩位數的成長，我們正在連續第四年實現兩位數的成長。

Organic sales growth, combined with productivity drove very strong core earnings conversion of about 40%. We repurchased roughly $400 million worth of shares in Q3, and with our new reauthorization, we expect to repurchase approximately $5 billion worth of shares between the second half of this year, and the end of next year.

有機銷售成長與生產力結合，推動核心獲利轉換率非常強勁，約 40%。我們在第三季回購了價值約 4 億美元的股票，透過新的重新授權，我們預計將在今年下半年到明年年底之間回購價值約 50 億美元的股票。

We had said that we wanted 2025 to be a clean year. We are on track to do just that. We closed on the sale of the commercial refrigeration business on October 1, and we are on track to close on our final divestiture, commercial and residential fire by year end.

我們曾說過，我們希望 2025 年是乾淨的一年。我們正朝著這個目標邁進。我們於 10 月 1 日完成了商用冷凍業務的出售，並預計在年底前完成最終的剝離、商業和住宅火災。

In addition to completing our portfolio moves, we have reached settlement subject to court approvals that we are confident will largely put the inherited AFFF potential exposure behind us. We are pleased with the outcome, which Patrick will discuss in more detail.

除了完成我們的投資組合變更外，我們還達成了一個待法院批准的和解協議，我們有信心這將在很大程度上消除繼承的 AFFF 潛在風險。我們對結果感到滿意，帕特里克將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Turning to Slide 5. Our vision remains unwavering to be the global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions. Global leadership and sales winning, and winning the right way through differentiation and customer solutions. We have gained share in nearly every business.

轉到投影片 5。我們的願景始終堅定不移，成為智慧氣候和能源解決方案的全球領導者。全球領導力和銷售獲勝，並透過差異化和客戶解決方案以正確的方式獲勝。我們幾乎在所有業務中都獲得了份額。

In commercial HVAC, we are achieving outsized growth in key verticals, including data centers decarbonization-related infrastructure spend and mega projects. For example, we had a recent win for a new semiconductor fab facility on the West Coast of the United States.

在商業暖通空調領域，我們在關鍵垂直領域實現了大幅成長，包括資料中心脫碳相關基礎設施支出和大型專案。例如，我們最近贏得了美國西海岸的新半導體工廠設施。

In data centers, our orders year to date are up more than 3x, and we expect continued momentum. Data center equipment growth will drive aftermarket growth where there is a 5x to 10x multiplier opportunity versus the installed base over time.

在資料中心，我們的訂單今年迄今成長了 3 倍以上，我們預計這一勢頭將持續下去。資料中心設備的成長將推動售後市場的成長，隨著時間的推移，售後市場的機會將比安裝基數增加 5 到 10 倍。

Our commercial HVAC business is far better positioned now than it has ever been. Everything connected, everything intelligent. In Q3, we connected an additional 5,000 new chillers in the field and are on track for 50,000 connected chillers by year end. We also continue to expand our overall number of connected devices and offerings for our Abound and Lynx digital platforms.

我們的商業暖通空調業務現在的定位比以往任何時候都要好得多。萬物互聯，萬物智能。第三季度，我們在現場另外連接了 5,000 台新冷水機，並預計在年底前連接 50,000 台冷水機。我們也持續擴大 Abound 和 Lynx 數位平台的連接設備和產品總數。

Climate is at our core as a company. We achieved the US Department of Energy's cold climate heat pump challenge by validating that our infinity variable speed heat pumps with green speed intelligence can offer three in the field at 100% capacity at zero degrees Fahrenheit and reliably at negative 13 degrees Fahrenheit.

氣候是我們公司的核心。我們透過驗證具有綠色速度智慧的無段變速熱泵能夠在華氏零度下以100% 的容量在現場提供三個熱泵，並且在負13 華氏度下可靠地提供三個熱泵，從而應對了美國能源部的寒冷氣候熱泵挑戰。

We also introduced a new version of the Vector trailer refrigeration unit, which will reduce CO2 emissions by 73% while maintaining best-in-class performance. With our increased investment and expanded HVAC portfolio, we are now running a year or two ahead of our goal to reduce our customers carbon emissions by one gigaton by 2030.

我們還推出了新版本的 Vector 拖車冷凍裝置，可將二氧化碳排放量減少 73%，同時保持一流的性能。隨著我們增加投資和擴大 HVAC 產品組合，我們現在比我們的目標提前了一兩年，即到 2030 年將客戶碳排放量減少 10 億噸。

On energy, we are focused on introducing complete home energy management solutions. In Europe, we remain confident in the sustained transition from boilers to heat pumps, where we see a mix up factor of more than three to one. Adding integrated solar PV and battery can more than double the mix up factor.

在能源方面，我們專注於推出完整的家庭能源管理解決方案。在歐洲，我們對從鍋爐到熱泵的持續過渡仍然充滿信心，我們看到混合係數超過三比一。添加整合式太陽能光伏發電和電池可以使混合係數增加一倍以上。

In North America, we are making great progress working with major utilities validating that our technology can help them manage peak hour demand, which would also result in savings for our customers. We will be introducing pilots into the field next year.

在北美，我們與主要公用事業公司的合作取得了巨大進展，證明我們的技術可以幫助他們管理高峰時段的需求，這也將為我們的客戶帶來節省。我們將於明年將試點引入該領域。

And finally, on solutions, our aftermarket growth formula continues to yield results. Coverage for our chillers is about 75,000 units, and we remain on track for more than 80,000 by the end of this year. Our aftermarket playbook continues to gain traction across the portfolio. As we look ahead, there is no question that we are a new Carrier, as you can see on slide 6.

最後，在解決方案方面，我們的售後市場成長公式繼續產生成果。我們的冰水機覆蓋範圍約為 75,000 台，預計到今年年底覆蓋範圍將超過 80,000 台。我們的售後市場策略繼續在整個產品組合中獲得關注。展望未來，毫無疑問我們是一家新的營運商，正如您在投影片 6 中看到的那樣。

In just four years since our spin of our HVAC business, revenues will have nearly doubled from $10 billion in 2020. We are focused and simpler. And now positioned as a higher growth profile company with our complete portfolio exposed to sustainability related secular tailwinds. In addition, we have leading positions in all our targeted HVAC [R] markets globally to help us drive consistent profitable growth through geographic and vertical cycles.

自我們剝離 HVAC 業務以來的短短四年內，營收將比 2020 年的 100 億美元增長近一倍。我們專注且簡單。現在，我們的完整投資組合被定位為一家成長速度更快的公司，並受到與永續發展相關的長期順風車的影響。此外，我們在全球所有目標 HVAC [R] 市場中都處於領先地位，這有助於我們在地理和垂直週期內推動持續的獲利成長。

Turning to slide 7. I am very excited about the benefits that focus will bring. Since our spin, we have made great progress on culture, talent, winning, innovation, customer centricity, growth, and margin expansion. We have done this while navigating COVID supply chain challenges and a significant portfolio transformation.

轉到投影片 7。我對專注帶來的好處感到非常興奮。自成立以來，我們在文化、人才、制勝、創新、以客戶為中心、成長和利潤擴張方面取得了巨大進步。我們在應對新冠疫情供應鏈挑戰和重大產品組合轉型的同時做到了這一點。

With that behind us, our portfolios going forward are clear. Laser focused on our customers and share and margin gains in our core businesses, double digit aftermarket growth, complete ecosystem solutions for our customers, and continued balanced capital deployment.

有了這些，我們未來的投資組合就很明確了。Laser 專注於我們的客戶以及核心業務的份額和利潤成長、兩位數的售後市場成長、為客戶提供完整的生態系統解決方案以及持續平衡的資本部署。

I am so excited for 2025 as we can double down on our focus on execution and growth, benefiting our customers, our people and our shareholders. Last, before I turn it over to Patrick, a few words on Viessmann Climate Solutions on slide 8.

我對 2025 年感到非常興奮，因為我們可以加倍專注於執行和成長，使我們的客戶、員工和股東受益。最後，在我將其交給帕特里克之前，請先介紹幻燈片 8 上的菲斯曼氣候解決方案。

For the first time this year, we are seeing encouraging market indications. The backlog, which was still elevated coming into the year is now back to traditional levels. So this business has returned to being a book-and-ship business without above -- with about a month of backlog. Orders for much of the year in Germany were constrained in large part because the government declared in February that subsidies would not be paid until October.

今年我們第一次看到令人鼓舞的市場跡象。進入今年以來仍處於上升狀態的積壓現已回到傳統水準。因此，該業務已恢復為沒有上述內容的預訂和發貨業務 - 大約有一個月的積壓。德國今年大部分時間的訂單都受到限制，很大程度上是因為政府在 2 月宣布補貼要到 10 月才會支付。

We thought orders would start to pick up in Q3, which they did just later in the quarter than we anticipated. Therefore, our Q3 sales were down about 25% rather than our estimated 20%, resulting in the full year expectation now being down in the high-teens rather than our previous estimate of down in the mid-teens.

我們認為訂單將在第三季開始增加，而他們在本季稍後的表現比我們預期的要晚。因此，我們第三季的銷售額下降了約 25%，而不是我們估計的 20%，導致全年預期現在下降到了十幾歲左右，而不是我們之前估計的十幾歲左右。

Encouragingly, recent trends around orders and subsidy applications have improved. Heat pumps subsidy applications in Germany in Q3 were up about 50% sequentially and up 2x versus last year. VCS orders overall turned positive, up low single digits and it was the best quarter in over -- best orders quarter in over a year.

令人鼓舞的是，近期訂單和補助申請的趨勢有所改善。德國第三季的熱泵補貼申請量比上一季成長了約 50%，比去年增加了 2 倍。VCS 訂單整體轉為正數，增幅較低個位數，這是一年多來最好的季度。

Orders were up about 10% in September, and that strength has continued in October. More broadly, the integration has exceeded our expectations. There are so many obvious and some less obvious benefits to this game-changing combination.

9 月的訂單成長了約 10%，而這種勢頭在 10 月依然持續。更廣泛地說，整合超出了我們的預期。這種改變遊戲規則的組合有很多明顯的和一些不太明顯的好處。

Consider technology development and now having best of the best approaches to scalable global platforms. We are now harmonizing our electronic control board designs around that Viessmann platform. Cost per board is projected to decrease significantly, and we will also benefit from avoiding duplication across the network, supply chain management, obsolescence management and quality.

考慮技術開發，現在擁有可擴展全球平台的最佳方法。我們現在正在圍繞菲斯曼平台協調我們的電子控制板設計。每塊板的成本預計將大幅下降，我們也將受益於避免網路重複、供應鏈管理、過時管理和品質。

The same is true for embedded software. We will be harmonizing standard embedded software for all of our electronics around the Veissmann 1 base ecosystem, which will shorten time to market and decrease development costs.

對於嵌入式軟體也是如此。我們將圍繞 Veissmann 1 基礎生態系統協調所有電子產品的標準嵌入式軟體，這將縮短上市時間並降低開發成本。

We are also working on implementing best of the best digital connectivity with our customers. For revenue synergies, we are targeting over $100 million in revenue synergies next year. These include new Carrier cooling and heat pump offerings through the Veissmann channel and a new Carrier branded propane heat pump for light commercial applications.

我們也致力於與客戶實現最佳的數位連結。對於營收綜效，我們明年的目標是實現超過 1 億美元的營收綜效。其中包括透過 Veissmann 通路提供的新開立冷卻和熱泵產品以及用於輕型商業應用的新開利品牌丙烷熱泵。

And we know we will drive cost synergies. We remain on track for over $200 million in cost synergies in 2026. And of course, we are driving internally to do better than that. By controlling the controllables and leveraging this phenomenally differentiated company, I am confident that we will, together, drive tremendous value for decades to come. With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

我們知道我們將推動成本協同效應。我們仍有望在 2026 年實現超過 2 億美元的成本綜效。當然，我們正在內部努力做得更好。透過控制可控因素並利用這家差異化顯著的公司，我相信我們將在未來幾十年共同推動巨大的價值。這樣，我就把它交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by thanking sort of my colleagues in the corporate finance team. So far this year, the team has successfully integrated Veissmann Climate Solutions financials, manage the accounting for five different exit transactions, and more recently has transitioned our financial statements back to 2022 to reflect disc-ops treatment for the fire and security exits.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。首先，我要感謝公司財務團隊的一些同事。今年到目前為止，該團隊已成功整合 Veissmann Climate Solutions 的財務，管理五種不同出口交易的會計，最近將我們的財務報表轉回到 2022 年，以反映消防和安全出口的光碟操作處理。

Just one of those moving pieces would be a big project. The combination of all of these in less than a year is truly an enormous and complex undertaking. So a big thank you to our Chief Accounting Officer, Kyle Crockett; our Tax and Treasury Lead, Mike Cenci; and our Corporate Planning and IR leads, (inaudible) and Sam Pearlstein, as well as their entire teams, very much appreciated.

僅其中一個移動部件就將是一個大項目。在不到一年的時間內將所有這些結合在一起確實是一項巨大而複雜的任務。非常感謝我們的首席會計官凱爾·克羅克特 (Kyle Crockett)；我們的稅務和財務主管 Mike Cenci；我們的企業規劃和 IR 領導（聽不清楚）和 Sam Pearlstein 以及他們的整個團隊都非常感謝。

Please turn to slide 9. A reminder that with the exception of preliminary free cash flow, all these results refer to continuing operations. Reported sales of $6 billion were up 21%, with organic sales up 4%. Veissman Climate Solutions contributed 17% to year-over-year sales growth. Q3 adjusted operating profit of over $1 billion was up 19% compared to last year, driven by the contribution of Veissman Climate Solutions, the benefit of organic growth, and price and productivity.

請翻到投影片 9。提醒您，除了初步自由現金流之外，所有這些結果均指持續經營業務。報告銷售額達 60 億美元，成長 21%，其中有機銷售額成長 4%。Veissman Climate Solutions 為同比銷售成長貢獻了 17%。第三季調整後營業利潤超過 10 億美元，比去年成長 19%，這得益於 Veissman Climate Solutions 的貢獻、有機成長的好處以及價格和生產力。

Adjusted operating margin was down 40 basis points. Deconsolidation of Veissmann Climate Solutions represented about 130 basis point headwind to adjusted operating margin in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted operating margin is up 120 basis points, driven by the benefit of organic growth and strong productivity.

調整後營業利益率下降 40 個基點。Veissmann Climate Solutions 的分割對本季調整後的營運利潤率造成約 130 個基點的不利影響。今年迄今，在有機成長和強勁生產力的推動下，調整後營業利潤率上升了 120 個基點。

As Dave already mentioned, core earnings conversion that is excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and currency, was about 40% in the quarter, and over 100% year to date. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $0.77 was up 3% year over year, driven by organic growth, price and productivity, partly offset by higher net interest expense, higher tax rate, and higher share count.

正如戴夫已經提到的，排除收購、資產剝離和貨幣影響的核心獲利轉換率，本季約為 40%，今年迄今超過 100%。受有機成長、價格和生產力的推動，持續經營業務調整後每股收益為 0.77 美元，年增 3%，但部分被較高的淨利息支出、較高的稅率和較高的股票數量所抵銷。

We have included the year over year adjusted EPS from continuing operations bridge in the appendix on slide 22. Including the $0.06 adjusted EPS from discontinued operations, overall adjusted EPS of $0.83 was better than our guide by about $0.03.

我們在投影片 22 的附錄中納入了持續經營橋的逐年調整後每股盈餘。包括終止經營業務帶來的 0.06 美元調整後每股收益，整體調整後每股收益為 0.83 美元，比我們的指導值高出約 0.03 美元。

Q3 fire & security sales now excluded from our reported results were about $500 million. Preliminary free cash flow for the company, which includes the results of both continuing and discontinued operations, was an outflow of about $370 million in the quarter. This figure includes roughly $1.1 billion of cash taxes on the business exit gains, transaction costs and restructuring costs, resulting in preliminary underlying free cash flow performance in the quarter of about $700 million.

目前，不包括在我們報告的業績中的第三季消防和安全銷售額約為 5 億美元。該公司的初步自由現金流（包括持續經營業務和終止經營業務的結果）在本季流出約 3.7 億美元。這一數字包括約 11 億美元的業務退出收益現金稅、交易成本和重組成本，導致本季初步基本自由現金流表現約為 7 億美元。

On a year-to-date basis, preliminary free cash flow is $120 million with preliminary underlying performance of about $1.4 billion. Moving on to the segments, starting on slide 10. HVAC reported sales growth of 26% reflects organic sales growth of 6% and the contribution of Veissmann Climate Solutions.

年初至今，初步自由現金流為 1.2 億美元，初步基本績效約 14 億美元。從投影片 10 開始繼續討論各個部分。HVAC 報告的銷售額成長 26%，反映 6% 的有機銷售額成長以及 Veissmann Climate Solutions 的貢獻。

Organic sales in the Americas were up high single digits, driven by an almost 20% increase in commercial HVAC, and double-digit sales growth for residential HVAC. Light commercial was down mid-single digits. Organic sales in EMEA were up low single digits, driven by double-digit growth in commercial HVAC, partially offset by a decline in resi and light commercial sales, reflecting continued market weakness in that segment.

受商業 HVAC 成長近 20% 以及住宅 HVAC 銷售額兩位數成長的推動，美洲的有機銷售額出現高個位數成長。輕商業銷售下降了個位數。受商用暖通空調領域兩位數成長的推動，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機銷售額出現低個位數成長，但部分被樹脂和輕型商業銷售額的下降所抵消，反映出該領域市場持續疲軟。

Sales in Asia Pacific were down low single digits, driven by continued weakness in our residential light commercial markets in China, partially offset by continued strength in the rest of Asia. The HVAC segment operating margins were down 100 basis points as we expected. The benefit of organic growth and productivity were offset by the consolidation of VCS, which represented about a 200-basis point margin headwinds in the quarter. Overall, another solid quarter for HVAC.

由於中國住宅輕型商業市場持續疲軟，亞太地區的銷售額下降了低個位數，但部分被亞洲其他地區的持續強勁所抵消。正如我們預期的那樣，HVAC 部門的營業利潤率下降了 100 個基點。有機成長和生產力的好處被 VCS 的整合所抵消，VCS 代表了本季約 200 個基點的利潤率逆風。整體而言，暖通空調領域又一個穩健的季度。

Transitioning to refrigeration on slide 11. A reminder that commercial refrigeration results are included in continuing operations as they do not qualify for disc-ops treatment. Reported inorganic sales were up 1%. Transport refrigeration was up 3%. Within transport, container was up 30% year-over-year, while global truck and trailer was down mid-single digits, driven by North America truck and trailer, which was down over 15%.

幻燈片 11 上過渡到冷藏。提醒您，商業冷凍結果包含在持續運作中，因為它們不符合光碟操作處理的條件。報告的無機銷售額增長了 1%。運輸冷藏成長 3%。在運輸領域，貨櫃年增 30%，而全球卡車和拖車銷量下降了中個位數，北美卡車和拖車銷量下降了 15% 以上。

European truck and trailer was down low single digits, while Asia truck and trailer continues to perform very well with about 20% growth. Our (inaudible) business was up double digits. Commercial refrigeration was down low single digits. Q3 is the last quarter to include the commercial refrigeration business as we closed the sale transaction on October 1.

歐洲卡車和拖車出現低個位數下降，而亞洲卡車和拖車繼續表現良好，成長約 20%。我們的（聽不清楚）業務成長了兩位數。商業製冷下降了低個位數。第三季度是包括商用冷凍業務的最後一個季度，我們於 10 月 1 日完成了銷售交易。

Through three quarters, commercial refrigeration sales were about $750 million, with immaterial adjusted operating profit contribution. Adjusted operating margin for this segment expanded 50 basis points compared to last year, driven by productivity.

三個季度，商用冷凍銷售額約 7.5 億美元，調整後的營業利潤貢獻不大。在生產力的推動下，該部門調整後的營業利潤率比去年增加了 50 個基點。

Turning to slide 12 for orders. In the interest of time, I will just mention a few highlights. Total company orders were up close to 20% on an organic basis. North America resi HVAC orders were up 30% year-over-year, and recent movement has been stronger than we expected. We're not counting on any material [pertinent pre-buy] this year.

轉向投影片 12 查看訂單。由於時間關係，我只提幾個重點。公司總訂單有機成長近 20%。北美 Resi HVAC 訂單年增 30%，近期走勢強於我們的預期。我們今年不指望有任何材料[相關預購]。

We see continued strength in global commercial HVAC with orders up about 15%. Data centers remain particularly strong. And global truck and trailer orders are up 85%, helped by very easy compare. Turning to slide 13, guidance.

我們看到全球商用暖通空調市場持續強勁，訂單成長約 15%。數據中心仍然特別強勁。由於非常簡單的比較，全球卡車和拖車訂單增加了 85%。轉向幻燈片 13，指導。

Our guidance for 2024 now reflects continuing operations with the exception of a free cash flow. There are a few moving pieces, but our new adjusted EPS guide is essentially unchanged compared to the July adjusted EPS guide, except for the impact of discontinued operations. We now expect reported full year sales of roughly $22.5 billion compared to the prior guide that included fire and security with underlying organic growth of about 3%.

我們對 2024 年的指導現在反映了除自由現金流之外的持續經營。有一些變化，但與 7 月調整後的 EPS 指南相比，除了停產業務的影響外，我們新調整後的 EPS 指南基本上沒有變化。我們現在預計報告的全年銷售額約為 225 億美元，而先前的指南包括消防和安全業務，潛在有機成長約為 3%。

Our adjusted operating margin guidance remains roughly 15.5%, up 150 basis points year over year. And we continue to expect full year core earnings conversion to be well north of 50%. Our guide for adjusted EPS of continuing operations is now about $2.50.

我們調整後的營業利益率指引仍約為 15.5%，較去年同期上升 150 個基點。我們繼續預計全年核心獲利轉換率將遠高於 50%。我們對持續經營業務調整後每股收益的指導目前約為 2.50 美元。

As I mentioned earlier, the change versus our July guide of $2.85 is all related to the transition to disc-ops treatment of the fire & security exits. In the appendix, we have included a guide-to-guide bridge on slide 23 as well as on slide 24, a bridge from what we called core adjusted EPS to the $2.50 guide of continuing operations.

正如我之前提到的，與我們 7 月指導價 2.85 美元相比，這項變更都與消防和安全出口向光碟操作的過渡有關。在附錄中，我們在幻燈片 23 和幻燈片 24 上包含了一個指南到指南的橋樑，這是從我們所謂的核心調整後每股收益到 2.50 美元持續經營指南的橋樑。

As you will recall, we estimated earlier this year that 2024 full year adjusted EPS of the businesses we are retaining would amount to $2.60. As you will see on the bridge, the difference between the $2.60 and the $2.50 adjusted EPS is all related to disc-ops, and more specifically the treatment of costs previously allocated to the fire & security segment, and net interest expense in disc-ops accounting.

您可能還記得，我們​​今年稍早預計，我們保留的業務 2024 年全年調整後每股收益將達到 2.60 美元。正如您將在橋上看到的那樣，2.60 美元和2.50 美元調整後每股收益之間的差異都與光碟操作有關，更具體地說，是與先前分配給消防和安全部門的成本以及光碟操作中的淨利息費用的處理有關會計。

As I mentioned earlier, commercial refrigeration has an immaterial adjusted EPS contribution in 2024, hence, it is not included on the bridge. Our free cash flow outlook is now an outflow of $200 million versus an inflow of $400 million in the July guidance, reflecting about $600 million of cash tax payments related to the business exit of commercial and residential fire. This was not in our July guide, given timing of the definitive agreement.

正如我之前提到的，商業製冷對 2024 年調整後 EPS 的貢獻並不重要，因此，它不包含在橋樑中。我們的自由現金流前景目前為流出 2 億美元，而 7 月指引中的流入為 4 億美元，反映了與商業和住宅火災業務退出相關的約 6 億美元現金稅。考慮到最終協議的時間安排，這並不在我們的 7 月指南中。

Our underlying free cash flow outlook remains above $2.4 billion, and we now expect capital expenditures of about $500 million, and cash restructuring closer to $150 million. From a capital structure perspective, we expect to be at about 2x net leverage at the end of the calendar year, consistent with the commitment we made earlier in the year. In the appendix on slide 26, there is a summary of additional items, which were also updated as part of the new guide.

我們的基本自由現金流前景仍高於 24 億美元，我們現在預計資本支出約為 5 億美元，現金重組接近 1.5 億美元。從資本結構的角度來看，我們預計到年底淨槓桿率將達到約 2 倍，這與我們今年稍早所做的承諾一致。第 26 張投影片的附錄中提供了其他項目的摘要，這些項目也作為新指南的一部分進行了更新。

Moving on to slide 14. While we plan to issue 2025 adjusted EPS guide, when we report earnings in early February, I want to update you on some of the building blocks. Starting with our current 2024 guide of $2.50 of adjusted EPS. Consistent with our value creation framework, we expect double -- we expect to deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth from organic revenue growth.

繼續看投影片 14。雖然我們計劃發布 2025 年調整後每股收益指南，但當我們在 2 月初報告收益時，我想向您介紹一些基本要素的最新情況。從我們目前的 2024 年調整後每股收益 2.50 美元的指導開始。與我們的價值創造框架一致，我們預期有機收入成長將實現兩位數的調整後每股盈餘成長。

In addition to that, we expect tailwinds from the elimination of costs previously allocated to the fire & security segment. As Sam mentioned, these costs are included in the $2.50 adjusted EPS of continuing ops. We started addressing these costs at the very beginning of calendar 2024 and will have eliminated about $200 million of run-rate costs throughout 2024, with some residual benefit in 2025, as you can see on this slide.

除此之外，我們預計取消先前分配給消防和安全部門的成本將帶來有利影響。正如 Sam 所提到的，這些成本包含在持續營運的 2.50 美元調整後每股收益中。我們在 2024 年年初就開始解決這些成本問題，並將在 2024 年全年消除約 2 億美元的運行成本，並在 2025 年獲得一些剩餘收益，正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣。

Moving on to unexpected tailwind, from lower net interest expense. Debt paydown throughout 2024 means that 2025 net interest expense is expected to be at $0.05 to $0.10 tailwind. Finally, we expect second half 2024 and 2025 share repurchases to amount to about $5 billion eliminating the dilution from shares issued from the VCS acquisition by the end of 2025.

淨利息支出下降，帶來意想不到的順風車。2024 年全年的債務償還意味著 2025 年淨利息支出預計將達到 0.05 至 0.10 美元。最後，我們預計 2024 年下半年和 2025 年的股票回購金額將達到約 50 億美元，消除 2025 年底 VCS 收購發行的股票帶來的稀釋。

In short, given these building blocks, we expect to have another year of strong adjusted EPS growth in 2025. From a capital deployment perspective, we expect to continue to target a growing and sustainable dividend, representing about a 30% payout. We also expect to pay down the $1.2 billion maturity early next year and refinance the EUR750 million debt front subject to market conditions.

簡而言之，考慮到這些要素，我們預計 2025 年調整後每股盈餘將再次強勁成長。從資本部署的角度來看，我們預計將繼續以不斷增長且可持續的股息為目標，派息率約為 30%。我們也預計明年初償還 12 億美元的到期債務，並根據市場狀況為 7.5 億歐元的債務進行再融資。

Moving on to slide 15. At the end of last week, we announced important settlements related to AFFF. Let me start with estate claims or claims that Carrier is responsible for any liabilities of KFI including all those related to the manufacture or sale of AFFF. Upon court approval, this settlement will permanently resolve all such present and future claims whether water, personal injury, airport, or anyone else.

繼續看投影片 15。上週末，我們宣布了與 AFFF 相關的重要和解協議。讓我從遺產索賠或開利對 KFI 的任何責任負責的索賠開始，包括與 AFFF 的製造或銷售相關的所有責任。經法院批准，和解將永久解決所有此類當前和未來的索賠，無論是水、人身傷害、機場或其他任何人。

Moving on to direct claims or claims for UTC's actions between 2005 and 2013 when it owns the AFFF business. We believe the settlements will resolve substantially all current and future AFFF related claims by public water providers and airports. We also believe that any potential still remaining claims lack merit. Cash settlement payments amount to $650 million, which we estimate will be paid overtime, as you can see on the slide.

繼續直接索賠或對 UTC 2005 年至 2013 年擁有 AFFF 業務時的行為提出索賠。我們相信，和解協議將基本上解決公共供水商和機場當前和未來所有與水成膜泡沫相關的索賠。我們也認為，任何潛在的剩餘索賠都缺乏依據。現金和解付款總額為 6.5 億美元，我們估計將加班支付，正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣。

Importantly, we expect instruments payments received in the aggregate will cover the full amounts paid by Carrier under the settlements, though timing is not expected to match the timing of out flows in the early years. The settlement enables Carrier to receive up to $2.4 billion from shared insurance recoveries.

重要的是，我們預計收到的工具付款總額將涵蓋開利根據和解支付的全部金額，儘管時間預計與早年的資金流出時間不匹配。和解協議使開利能夠從共享保險賠償中獲得高達 24 億美元的賠償。

In addition to the $650 million of cash payments, the settlement also provides that the KFI net sales proceeds up to -- of $150 million are contributed. This is a non-cash item for Carrier, as is the $125 million contribution from insurance recovery.

除了 6.5 億美元的現金支付外，和解協議還規定 KFI 淨銷售收益最多可貢獻 1.5 億美元。對 Carrier 來說，這屬於非現金項目，保險賠償的 1.25 億美元也屬於非現金項目。

The settlements will not impact our capital deployment plans, including dividends, and share repurchases. In short, we had another good quarter. Transformation is substantially behind us, and we are optimistic about 2025 and beyond. With that, we'll open it up for questions.

和解不會影響我們的資本部署計劃，包括股利和股票回購。簡而言之，我們又度過了一個美好的季度。轉型已基本過去，我們對 2025 年及以後持樂觀態度。至此，我們將開放提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員說明）

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Sprague，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Patrick, I don't know what you're going to do with all your spare time now. You got all this done with your finance team there but -- hey, Dave, on Veissmann, obviously, it's been a moving target here, trying to find the bottom of what seem feels like we're likely there. But can you share your view on what the bottoming process and turn might look like, and give us some indication of how you're expecting things to kind of travel from a revenue standpoint into 2025?

謝謝。大家早安。派崔克，我不知道你現在的空閒時間打算做什麼。你和你的財務團隊一起完成了這一切，但是——嘿，戴夫，關於維斯曼，顯然，這是一個移動的目標，試圖找到我們可能在那裡的底部。但您能否分享一下您對觸底過程和轉折可能會是什麼樣子的看法，並告訴我們您對從收入角度到 2025 年的情況有何預期？

Yeah. Jeff, it's been -- there have been a lot a lot of moving parts. I feel that with Thomas and the team, we're in a rhythm now of looking -- and they have been [throughout] -- but we look together at weekly orders. It's really orders translate into sales almost overnight. So we're looking at all the underlying factors, and they seem to have now been solid.

是的。傑夫，有很多變化。我覺得湯瑪斯和他的團隊現在正處於尋找的節奏中——他們一直都是這樣——但我們會一起關注每週的訂單。訂單確實幾乎在一夜之間轉化為銷售額。因此，我們正在研究所有潛在因素，它們現在似乎已經可靠了。

I mentioned September orders were quite strong, and they were up about 10%. Orders, so far, it's only been two or three weeks here in October. But so far this month, they've been even stronger than that. So it feels like we've seen some level of turning. Now we are of course entering the season and throughout Europe and in Germany in particular, they're starting to now pay the subsidies. So that could be contributing.

我提到9月的訂單相當強勁，成長了10%左右。訂單，到目前為止，10月這裡才兩三個星期。但本月到目前為止，它們甚至比這更強大。所以感覺我們已經看到了某種程度的轉變。現在我們當然正在進入這個季節，整個歐洲，特別是德國，他們現在開始支付補貼。所以這可能會有所貢獻。

We obviously don't feel confident enough that we can call a bottom. But when we look at subsidy applications over the last three months in Germany, we look at the orders that we've been seeing, not only in Germany but throughout VCS. It does feel like we've turned the corner.

顯然我們沒有足夠的信心來判斷底部。但是，當我們查看德國過去三個月的補貼申請時，我們會看到我們所看到的訂單，不僅在德國，而且在整個 VCS 中。確實感覺我們已經轉危為安了。

And then just shifting completely to the pre-buy question. I think either you or Patrick said you're not expecting a pre-buy. It sounds like what is happening real time. So maybe just elaborate on that and do you have the capacity to meet the demand for a 410A prebuy if they're getting that impulse from the channel?

然後完全轉向預購問題。我想你或派崔克都說過你不希望預購。聽起來像是即時發生的事情。那麼也許只是詳細說明這一點，如果他們從通路中獲得這種衝動，您是否有能力滿足 410A 預購的需求？

We definitely have the capacity. What we did is we went out to our distributors and said, look, tell us how much you think you're going to need to have on the shelf at the end of this year going into next year, because we're going to run out of capacity to produce it.

我們絕對有這個能力。我們所做的是，我們去找我們的經銷商，告訴我們，從今年年底到明年，你認為你需要在貨架上有多少，因為我們要運行沒有能力生產它。

So we don't look as much at the orders. You saw our very strong orders in 2Q, around 100% this quarter, around 30%. So I think some of that had to do with folks having wanting some level of 410A on the shelf as they enter into next year. What we're looking at sales, what we're trying to do is build the inventory that we think we need going into next year.

所以我們不太關注訂單。你看到我們第二季的訂單非常強勁，本季約為 100%，約 30%。所以我認為這與人們在進入明年時想要某種程度的 410A 上架有關。我們正在關注銷售，我們正在努力做的是建立我們認為明年需要的庫存。

To determine whether it's a pre-delivery, which I think is the right word, are you delivering in 2024 for demand that would otherwise incur -- occur in 2025? You look at the movement, you look at the underlying demand for our end consumers. So the good news is that movement was strong coming out of 3Q, movement has been very, very strong in October were much higher than we anticipated. So we will enter next year with some level of 410A inventory within Carrier. We think it's for the underlying demand that there will be for the first quarter of next year. But as it looks right now, we don't see any material pre-delivery of 410A this year.

為了確定這是否是預先交付（我認為這個詞是正確的），你們是否會在 2024 年交付，以滿足原本會在 2025 年發生的需求？你看看這個動向，你看看我們最終消費者的潛在需求。因此，好消息是，第三季的走勢強勁，十月份的走勢非常非常強勁，遠高於我們的預期。因此，明年我們將在 Carrier 內保持一定水準的 410A 庫存。我們認為這是針對明年第一季的潛在需求。但從目前來看，我們今年沒有看到任何410A的材料預先交付。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. First off, I just wanted to circle back to slide 24 and 25. So just trying to understand if you could clarify a little bit more that $0.10 delta sort of what exactly is moving on slide 24 between the core and the continuing ops guide. And then also, I guess on slide 25, you have that $0.40 operational tailwinds guided, in the last quarter, that number was about $0.55. So just trying to understand the moving pieces on those two items, please.

嗨，早安。首先，我只想回到投影片 24 和 25。因此，我只是想了解您是否可以澄清 0.10 美元的增量，即幻燈片 24 上核心和持續操作指南之間到底發生了什麼。然後，我想在幻燈片 25 上，您有 0.40 美元的營運順風引導，在上個季度，這個數字約為 0.55 美元。所以，請嘗試了解這兩個項目的動態部分。

Yes, Julian, good morning. This is Patrick. So the $2.60 on slide 24 was our estimate of the EPS in 2024 of the businesses that we are retaining. And so that was our estimate back then. The $2.50 is 2024 according to continuing operations.

是的，朱利安，早安。這是派崔克。因此，幻燈片 24 上的 2.60 美元是我們對我們保留的業務 2024 年每股收益的估計。這就是我們當時的估計。根據持續經營業務，2.50 美元是 2024 年的價格。

With continuing operations, charges that were allocated to the fire & security segment from corporate and other functions unless they were direct charges, are allocated to continuing operations. That was not the case in $2.60 because we looked at $2.60 from a core clean company going forward.

對於持續經營業務，從公司和其他職能部門分配給消防與安全部門的費用（除非是直接費用）將分配給持續經營業務。2.60 美元的情況並非如此，因為我們關注的是一家核心清潔公司未來的 2.60 美元。

So the difference between the $2.60 and the $2.50 is basically allocation of headquarter charges to the segments that we assumed would not be there, the second -- and that's about $0.05. The other $0.05 is basically how interest expense is treated in disc-ops.

因此，2.60 美元和 2.50 美元之間的差異基本上是將總部費用分配給我們假設不會存在的細分市場，即第二個細分市場，大約為 0.05 美元。另外 0.05 美元基本上是在光碟操作中處理利息費用的方式。

This explains when you look at our bridge from the $2.50, the building blocks for next year, you'll see there is a $0.05 pickup from disc-ops treatments of some of the stranded costs. That's part of the $0.10 you see here. And you also see there is a $0.05 to $0.10 pickup from net interest expense next year versus this year. That also is part of the $0.10 you see here on slide 24.

這就解釋了，當您從 2.50 美元（明年的基石）來看我們的橋樑時，您會發現透過光碟作業處理某些擱淺成本可以節省 0.05 美元。這是您在此處看到的 0.10 美元的一部分。您還可以看到，明年的淨利息支出將與今年相比增加 0.05 至 0.10 美元。這也是您在幻燈片 24 上看到的 0.10 美元的一部分。

With that, I'll move over to '25. On '25, again, this is based on the $2.20 of continuing operations. The operational performance is an improvement of $0.40 of adjusted EPS. I think you're referring to last quarter a $0.55 of operational performance improvements that included the fire & security segment. Of the $0.55 of last quarter, about $0.15 to $0.20 related to fire and security. So the core operational performance of our business has been unchanged. Current guide versus the prior guide.

就這樣，我將進入 25 歲。同樣，25 年，這是基於 2.20 美元的持續營運。營運業績調整後每股收益提高了 0.40 美元。我認為您指的是上個季度 0.55 美元的營運績效改進，其中包括消防和安全部門。在上個季度的 0.55 美元中​​，大約 0.15 至 0.20 美元與消防和安全相關。因此我們業務的核心經營績效沒有改變。當前指南與先前的指南。

That's really helpful. Thank you, Patrick. And then maybe just one last clarification one. Just on the fourth quarter core assumptions there, it looks like I think it's about a just on the sort of $0.50 or so. And you've got about mid-single digit organic growth year on year and a mid-teens operating margin. Just wondered if you could flesh out any of the guide, post fourth quarter on the go-forward basis?

這真的很有幫助。謝謝你，派崔克。然後也許只是最後一項澄清。就第四季度的核心假設而言，我認為這大約是 0.50 美元左右。年比有機成長約為中個位數，營業利潤率為中位數。只是想知道您是否可以在第四季度後的基礎上充實任何指南？

Yes. The way you can think about this, the mid-single digit organic growth, we expect HVAC to be close to 10% in the quarter with continued strong double-digit growth in commercial HVAC. We also believe that refrigeration will be down about mid-single digits, mostly driven by North America truck and trailer. Adjusted EPS expect to be a little less than 50%, as you mentioned.

是的。您可以這樣想，即中個位數的有機成長，我們預計暖通空調在本季將接近 10%，商業暖通空調將持續強勁的兩位數成長。我們也認為，冷氣量將下降約中個位數，主要由北美卡車和拖車推動。正如您所提到的，調整後每股收益預計略低於 50%。

$0.50

0.50 美元

A little bit less than $0.50. Yeah. What did I say?

略低於 0.50 美元。是的。我說什麼了？

50%.

50%。

Oh, sorry. Less than $0.50, but up about 33% year over year. And our operating margin is expected to be up about 300 bps year over year, a little bit more than that actually. And so the margin expansion is really outcome of stronger volume and mix, good price and productivity. And actually, in Q4, we expect the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures in our margins to be about neutral.

哦，抱歉。不到 0.50 美元，但年增約 33%。我們的營業利潤率預計將年增約 300 個基點，略高於實際數字。因此，利潤率的擴張實際上是銷售和產品組合的增強、良好的價格和生產力的結果。實際上，在第四季度，我們預期收購和剝離對我們利潤率的淨影響約為中性。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安德魯‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Good morning, everyone. David and Patrick, as we think about the bridge to '25, interestingly, you gave us the 68% organic growth profile for the New Carrier, which I know it's not a '25 guide per se. But would you say at this point you have above average visibility of that growth profile in '25 given the double-digit increase in backlog exiting Q3? And then you mentioned core incrementals in Q3 of 40%. I know you've been focused on improved productivity. So can you continue that kind of performance into '25?

大家早安。大衛和派崔克，當我們考慮通往 25 世紀的橋樑時，有趣的是，你們給了我們新航空母艦 68% 的有機成長概況，我知道這本身並不是 25 世紀的指南。但您是否會說，鑑於第三季度的積壓訂單呈兩位數增長，您對 25 年增長狀況的可見度高於平均水平？然後您提到第三季的核心增量為 40%。我知道您一直致力於提高生產力。那麼你能將這種表現延續到25年嗎？

So you're right. Andy, we're not going to provide guidance on this call. What I said in my script was that we would expect double digits EPS growth from organic growth. And that's the first building block. And based on what we see today in our businesses, commercial HVAC, as you mentioned, very strong performance this year, a big increase in backlog. We continued to see our backlog increase.

所以你是對的。安迪，我們不會就這次電話會議提供指導。我在腳本中所說的是，我們預計有機成長將實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長。這是第一個構建塊。根據我們今天在業務中看到的情況，正如您所提到的，商業暖通空調今年的表現非常強勁，積壓訂單大幅增加。我們的積壓訂單持續增加。

The residential HVAC, as Dave mentioned earlier, we do not expect a big pre-buy this year, maybe a preorder, but not a big pre-buy. That business for the last several quarters as we've turned to growth and so that we have some big elements of our portfolio.

住宅暖通空調，正如戴夫之前提到的，我們預計今年不會有大的預購，也許是預購，但不會是大的預購。過去幾季我們的業務已經轉向成長，因此我們的投資組合中有一些重要的元素。

And Dave just mentioned about Veissmann as well. We have some big elements of our portfolio that either are returning to growth or continuing to perform quite well. So at this point, we would be very disappointed if at least that first bucket of -- or first building block for next year, if that does not represent double-digit adjusted EPS growth. And on top of that, you can see the benefit of stranded cost elimination, net interest tailwinds, and then, of course, the tailwind from our significant buyback.

戴夫剛剛也提到了維斯曼。我們的投資組合中有一些重要元素要么正在恢復成長，要么繼續表現良好。因此，在這一點上，如果至少是明年的第一桶或第一個基石，如果這不代表兩位數的調整後每股收益成長，我們會非常失望。最重要的是，你可以看到擱淺成本消除、淨利息順風的好處，當然還有我們大規模回購帶來的順風。

Patrick, that's helpful. And then just following up on light commercial and residential, obviously, there seems to be some market share movement. But could you help us separate a bit how much better, for instance, Americas light commercial markets are residential to [match] your initial expectations? I know, you know, you have more 410A maybe than competitors, but how might that also [trend] into '25. Forgetting about the pre-buy for a second, it seems like there's some market share movement as well.

派崔克，這很有幫助。然後，在輕型商業和住宅方面，顯然，似乎存在一些市場份額變動。但是您能否幫助我們區分一下，例如，美洲的輕型商業市場是住宅市場，以[符合]您最初的期望？我知道，你知道，你可能比競爭對手擁有更多的 410A，但這怎麼可能也會[趨勢]進入'25。暫時忘記預購，似乎市佔率也發生了一些變化。

Yeah, Andy, I think on both, we've gained share both resi and light commercial. Resi more share. Our resi shares has been -- share gains have been north of 100 bps, I think, in part because, yes, we were able to support our customers with the 410A, and we may have had appeared to that were not as able to do so.

是的，安迪，我認為在這兩方面，我們都獲得了 Resi 和輕商業的份額。雷西更多分享。我認為，我們的 Resi 股票漲幅已超過 100 個基點，部分原因是，是的，我們能夠透過 410A 為我們的客戶提供支持，而我們可能似乎無法做到這一點。

What we're watching, light commercial this year has been better than we thought. We thought we'd be down low single digits will be up low single digits. And that even assumes Q4 being down something like 15%.

我們看到，今年的輕廣告比我們想像的還要好。我們原以為我們會下降低個位數，但最終會上升低個位數。甚至假設第四季下降 15% 左右。

Now we'll see what ends up happening, but we're trying to do in Q4 was number one, continue to support our customers. We've been coming off years of very strong growth in part due to share gains, in part due to new product introductions of national accounts we've picked up.

現在我們將看看最終會發生什麼，但我們在第四季度努力做的第一件事是繼續支持我們的客戶。我們經歷了多年的強勁成長，部分原因是份額成長，部分原因是我們在國民帳戶中推出了新產品。

So I think the good news as we go into next year is that we want to make sure we end this year with balanced inventory. So we've assumed down 15% in Q4, which would put us up low single digits for the year, again, I'm talking light commercial. And for the first time and now a few years will have an easier compare next year that we've had over these last few years.

因此，我認為進入明年的好消息是，我們希望確保今年年底庫存保持平衡。因此，我們假設第四季下降 15%，這將使我們今年的業績下降個位數，再次強調，我說的是輕商業。這是第一次，現在幾年後，明年我們將比過去幾年更容易的比較。

So the team is performing well. I think we'll end up low single digits there. And on the resi side, hats off to the team, we continue to see high single digits this year. We've taken share. We've managed the 23 [Sierra] transition very well; we're managing the for 454B transition very well. We have the 410A to support our customers, obviously this year. And then probably next year, about 90%, probably more than 90% of our deliveries will be the 454B, which we still expect the benefit of pricing on.

所以球隊表現不錯。我認為我們最終會得到低個位數的結果。在Resi方面，向團隊致敬，我們今年繼續看到高個位數。我們已經分享了。我們很好地管理了 23 [Sierra] 的過渡；我們很好地管理了 454B 的過渡。顯然，今年我們有 410A 來支援我們的客戶。然後可能明年，我們交付的大約 90%、可能超過 90% 將是 454B，我們仍然預計定價會帶來好處。

So I think that as we go into next year, if we continue to see the kind of movement we've had, inventory levels in the channel are low, they ended up last quarter, down about 10%. We want to make sure we end up this year with balanced inventory. So we feel good about the growth next year in resi for sure.

因此，我認為，當我們進入明年時，如果我們繼續看到我們所經歷的這種變化，通路中的庫存水準就會很低，上個季度的庫存水準會下降約 10%。我們希望確保今年的庫存達到平衡。因此，我們對明年樹脂產業的成長肯定感到滿意。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的顏色。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Lots going on here that's for sure. Patrick, I just wanted to pick up on the 4Q moving pieces. I just want to confirm a 12% adjusted operating margin for 4Q. Maybe just help us on how that divides between the -- I see in the segments and perhaps the broad line just given the corporate costs moving around with the discontinuation.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。這裡肯定會發生很多事情。派崔克，我只是想了解 4Q 的動態。我只想確認第四季調整後的營業利益率為 12%。也許只是幫助我們了解如何劃分——我在細分市場中看到的，也許是考慮到企業成本隨著停產而變化的大致界限。

If I look at operating margin for Q4, I think it's going to be about 12.5 for the overall company. And I mentioned the growth rates earlier between refrigeration and HVAC. I think HVAC margins will be close to 15, 15.5 and refrigeration about 13 or so in that range.

如果我看一下第四季的營業利潤率，我認為整個公司的營業利潤率約為 12.5。我之前提到過製冷和暖通空調之間的增長率。我認為暖通空調利潤率將接近 15、15.5，冷凍行業利潤率約為 13 左右。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you think these benefits will be another 10 basis points of impact?

好的。這很有幫助。然後您認為這些好處會另外產生10個基點的影響嗎？

No, actually, I think the margin impact divestment in Q4 on the overall company will be flat. And on the HVAC segment would be a headwind of about 0.5 points.

不，實際上，我認為第四季度撤資對整個公司的利潤率影響將持平。HVAC 領域將面臨約 0.5 個百分點的阻力。

Okay. Because of the ramp up sequentially. Okay. And then just on the buyback, I think determining the sizes of buyback on the way, does that imply that you already in the market buying back stock. And on that $4.7 billion between now and year end '25, is that you're putting regular regular-way buybacks in the open market? Or would you consider some full ASR or tender?

好的。因為循序漸進。好的。然後就回購而言，我認為確定回購規模是否意味著您已經在市場上回購股票。從現在到 25 年底這 47 億美元，你們是否會在公開市場進行定期回購？或者您會考慮進行完整的 ASR 或招標嗎？

Yes, Nigel. So we repurchased about $400 million in Q3, and our current outlook for this year is about $1 billion. So about a $600 million or so more to go this quarter. Depending on the timing of the proceeds from our last exits, which we expect to close by the end of -- by the end of this year, we may decide to do more this calendar year. We are looking at open market purchases as well as an ASR. And so it could be a combination of all of the above. It is not clear yet this year, where will do more than $1 billion. That will mostly depend on the timing of the proceeds and of course, on market conditions.

是的，奈傑爾。因此，我們在第三季回購了約 4 億美元，目前我們對今年的預期約為 10 億美元。因此，本季還需要花費 6 億美元左右。根據我們上次退出的收益時間（我們預計將在今年年底前完成），我們可能會決定在今年採取更多行動。我們正在考慮公開市場購買以及 ASR。因此它可能是上述所有內容的組合。目前尚不清楚今年將在哪些方面投入超過 10 億美元。這主要取決於收益的時間，當然也取決於市場狀況。

That's really helpful. Thank you.

這真的很有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Deane Dray, RBC.

迪恩·德雷，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just want to wish Sam best of luck, thanks for your help. And welcome to Mike. Just first question on data center, a couple of points here. One is, can you elaborate on that five- times multiplier because that's right in the range of what we've been looking at, it's much better to sell HVAC equipment to data centers than a one-time electrical equipment doesn't have that kind of aftermarket. So what are the assumption and that five-times multiplier.

謝謝。大家早安。只是祝 Sam 好運，謝謝你的幫助。歡迎來到麥克。這是關於資料中心的第一個問題，這裡有幾點。一是，您能否詳細說明一下那個五倍乘數，因為這正好在我們一直在考慮的範圍內，向資料中心出售 HVAC 設備比沒有這種設備的一次性電氣設備要好得多的售後市場。那麼假設和五倍乘數是什麼呢？

And Dave, are there differences in the equipment that you're providing to the hyperscalers today because they require significant redundancy? So are there any complexities in the equipment or how standardized is that as it as it looks today?

Dave，您現在向超大規模企業提供的設備是否存在差異，因為它們需要大量冗餘？那麼，設備是否有任何複雜性，或者今天看起來的標準化程度？

They are they -- the equipment can be a bit customized depending on the specific requirements. Obviously, we started with a baseline of our existing water-cooled and air-cooled chillers, but then they may have unique bespoke requirements. And our applied engineering team has done a phenomenal job understanding the specific requirements, especially of the hyperscalers, passing our first-of-a-kind units with -- in many cases is exceeding their requirements.

他們就是他們——設備可以根據具體要求進行一些客製化。顯然，我們從現有水冷和風冷冷水機組的基線開始，但隨後它們可能有獨特的客製化要求。我們的應用工程團隊在理解具體要求（尤其是超大規模的要求）方面做得非常出色，通過了我們首創的設備——在許多情況下超出了他們的要求。

And I think we're working very closely with our customers to satisfy the specific requirements that may be that they have a requirement for operating at very low output levels capacity requirements, but not having a complete turn off of the chiller continuing to operate at, say 5%. So they don't have a complete cold startup. And our team has been able to manage requirements like that.

我認為我們正在與客戶密切合作，以滿足特定的要求，他們可能需要在非常低的輸出水平容量要求下運行，但不能完全關閉冷水機組繼續運行，說5%。所以他們沒有完全的冷啟動。我們的團隊已經能夠管理這樣的需求。

So generally, more than 80% common, I would say with our existing chillers, put some modifications. I would say our team, Dean, has done a phenomenal job. We've seen great wins. You won't see all of it on our orders because we may have a commitment from our customers that hasn't made its way into our orders number.

所以一般來說，超過 80% 的常見，我想說的是，對我們現有的冷水機組進行一些修改。我想說，迪恩，我們的團隊做得非常出色。我們已經看到了偉大的勝利。您不會在我們的訂單上看到所有這些內容，因為我們的客戶可能做出了一些承諾，但這些承諾尚未納入我們的訂單編號中。

But I mentioned orders up 250% year to date. We've made great progress, not only in the United States with the hyperscalers, and for their facilities outside the United States, but with the colos as well, folks like Vantage and others.

但我提到今年迄今訂單量增加了 250%。我們已經取得了巨大的進步，不僅在美國的超大規模提供者及其在美國以外的設施方面，而且在託管中心（例如 Vantage 等）方面也取得了巨大進展。

So we're very pleased with the progress that we've made, and we're very confident in our continued wins. We started this journey with a target of how many chillers that we felt we needed to win to increase share, not only in North America, but globally and support our customers. And our target now is orders of magnitude higher than anything we established upfront.

因此，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意，並且對繼續取得勝利充滿信心。我們開始這趟旅程的目標是我們認為需要贏得多少台冰水機才能增加份額，不僅在北美，而且在全球範圍內並支持我們的客戶。我們現在的目標比我們預先設定的目標高出幾個數量級。

So very, very pleased with the progress. And I think that the aftermarket opportunity is going to be transformational for Carrier in terms of how we think about supporting those customers, but customers in Chicago or Shanghai because we're going to have -- if you picture, having anywhere from 50 to 200 chillers at a single site, now you're dealing with rotable pool, real-time monitoring of the equipment, prognostics to anticipate failures, diagnostics, technicians on site with multi shifts that you may have two technicians in the day, two technicians at night. So all hands on deck to support them.

對進展非常非常滿意。我認為，售後市場機會對 Carrier 來說將是一場變革，我們會考慮如何支持這些客戶，但芝加哥或上海的客戶，因為我們將擁有——如果你想像的話，擁有 50 到 200 名客戶單一站點的冷水機，現在您正在處理可旋轉的水池、設備的即時監控、故障預測、診斷、多班次的現場技術人員，您可能白天有兩名技術人員，晚上有兩名技術人員。因此，所有人都齊心協力支持他們。

And we're going to be pricing it as kind of one of our most elite offerings in -- kind of a powered by the hour-type agreement. So very excited about the new wins and the aftermarket opportunity. Again, that won't kick in for a few years, of course, but we believe that we'll be at least 5x the equipment value.

我們將把它定價為我們最精英的產品之一——一種由小時類型協議支持的產品。對於新的勝利和售後市場機會感到非常興奮。當然，這在幾年內不會生效，但我們相信我們的設備價值至少會增加 5 倍。

Great. That's exactly what I was looking for. And then for Patrick on the -- congrats on the AFFF settlement. I know that's a difficult process and it still needs court approval. What will the circumstances be where you would be able to collect above that [615] has referenced the $2.4 billion, what will be the circumstances, will there have to be new claims filed? How might that play out?

偉大的。這正是我一直在尋找的。然後帕特里克祝賀 AFFF 達成和解。我知道這是一個困難的過程，仍然需要法院的批准。在什麼情況下您能夠收取高於 [615] 所提到的 24 億美元的金額？結果會如何呢？

I'll take it, Deane. It's really going to be a function. We have the policies. We have coverage that certainly exceeds $2.5 billion that Patrick mentioned. So we have the ability to collect more. We just and forego some of the policy. So it'll be a function of how we decide to navigate this with the plaintiffs because they have access to the insurance recoveries as well.

我會接受的，迪恩。它確實會成為一個函數。我們有政策。我們的承保範圍肯定超過帕特里克提到的 25 億美元。所以我們有能力收集更多。我們只是放棄了一些政策。因此，這將取決於我們決定如何與原告一起解決這個問題，因為他們也可以獲得保險賠償。

So look, when we look at it and I want to thank Kevin O'Connor and the legal team, because this was obviously difficult to navigate where we've -- I think we're the only company in the world that can say that we've put the underlying liabilities, we call them the estate claims, because KFI of course, in bankruptcy. But when we look at the underlying claims associated with the manufacturer sale of AFFF, we have now put those effectively in the rearview mirror, subject to final court approval.

所以，當我們看到這個問題時，我要感謝凱文·奧康納和法律團隊，因為這顯然很難我們所經歷的——我認為我們是世界上唯一一家可以這麼說的公司我們已經提出了基礎負債，我們稱之為遺產債權，因為KFI 當然處於破產狀態。但當我們審視與製造商銷售 AFFF 相關的潛在索賠時，我們現在已經將這些索賠有效地置於後視鏡中，並有待法院最終批准。

So we feel really good about that. We feel really good that even on these direct claims, which you would call a tenuous at best, these are claims that over a decade ago, something UTC would have done during its ownership of this business. That's unrelated to the sale or manufacturing of AFFF. Those are those claims.

所以我們對此感覺非常好。我們感覺非常好，即使是這些直接的主張（您充其量只能稱之為微不足道），這些主張也是十多年前 UTC 在擁有該業務期間會做的事情。這與水成膜泡棉的銷售或製造無關。這些就是這些主張。

And we've even settled, assuming we get court approval a big chunk of those. So we feel that between the insurance recovery, the settlements that we had, we can start 2025 with our portfolio transformation behind us, AFFF fundamentally behind us. And now we can just focus on good old-fashioned customers' growth, execution, innovation, the real exciting stuff.

我們甚至已經和解了，假設我們得到了法院的大部分批准。因此，我們認為，在保險恢復和我們達成的和解之間，我們可以在 2025 年開始，我們的投資組合轉型已經過去，AFFF 從根本上已經過去了。現在我們可以專注於傳統客戶的成長、執行、創新，以及真正令人興奮的事情。

Congratulations. Thank you.

恭喜。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Hey, Joe.

嘿，喬。

So real quickly just on the resi for 3Q, 4Q, you talked about the HVAC being up double digits in the third quarter. I'm curious like how much was it up specifically and what's embedded in the HVAC, up 10% in 4Q for you're resi business.

就第三季、第四季的業績而言，很快，您談到暖通空調在第三季成長了兩位數。我很好奇具體上漲了多少，以及 HVAC 中嵌入了哪些內容，您的 Resi 業務在第四季度上漲了 10%。

The resi business was up double digits in the third quarter, and when we look at the fourth quarter, again, we're not assuming that there's a significant -- any kind of a pre-buy in the number. Now I think --

樹脂業務在第三季實現了兩季成長，當我們再次審視第四季時，我們並沒有假設該數字中存在任何形式的重大預購。現在我想--

Yeah. Q3 was up 11%, and then Q4 is going to be a lot more than that. But frankly, remember last year, Q4 was really weak. And so Q4 is going to be up probably 20%, 30%. But again, that's more of a function of a weak last year with the destock rather than us having a lot of pre-buy, as we said in our guide, we do not assume a material pre-buy.

是的。第三季成長了 11%，第四季的增幅將遠高於此。但坦白說，記得去年，第四季確實很弱。因此，第四季可能會成長 20%、30%。但同樣，這更多是去年庫存減少所致，而不是我們有大量預購，正如我們在指南中所說，我們不假設有實質預購。

Yeah. Remember, Rob -- remember, Joe, as Patrick mentioned, we had a pretty easy compare last year was down about 20% resi.

是的。請記住，羅布 - 請記住，喬，正如帕特里克提到的，我們去年進行了一個非常簡單的比較，結果下降了約 20%。

Got it. That's super helpful, guys. And then as you're thinking about the dynamics for next year, Dave, with series of transition that's happening, then I know you mentioned that 90% of what you're going to sell is going to be R454B, I guess -- I think, do you have any concerns around the 410A unit? Just perhaps like being -- you mentioned that like your distributors aren't really stocking in, but that's basically having enough inventory on hand for the first half of the year such that the R454B units are a little bit slower to pick up.

知道了。這非常有幫助，夥計們。然後，戴夫，當您考慮明年的動態時，隨著一系列正在發生的過渡，然後我知道您提到您要銷售的 90％ 將是 R454B，我想 - 我想一想，您對410A 裝置還有什麼顧慮嗎？也許就像——你提到你的經銷商並沒有真正備貨，但這基本上是今年上半年手頭上有足夠的庫存，這樣 R454B 設備的提貨速度就會慢一些。

And then as you're thinking through pricing specifically for R454B, I know that you guys are expecting double-digit pricing, but how do you think about the net realized price associated with those units?

然後，當您專門考慮 R454B 的定價時，我知道你們期待兩位數的定價，但您如何看待與這些單位相關的淨實現價格？

Well, for -- on the first piece, we fully expect there to be 410A sold in the first quarter. I think there will be selling for today to our distributors and certainly our distributors will have 410A on the shelf going into next year. So we expect a fair amount of 410A to be sold into distribution and into the market in the first quarter.

嗯，對於第一件產品，我們完全預計 410A 將在第一季售出。我認為今天將會向我們的經銷商出售，當然我們的經銷商明年也會有 410A 上架。因此，我們預計第一季將有相當數量的 410A 進入分銷和市場。

I think the question that folks are trying to wrestle with is, are we selling more 410A this year pulling from 2025, and we just don't see much of that. Could there be a couple of percent once all the dust settles? Perhaps, but we just -- it's all a function of the true underlying demand in the way -- only way we can understand that is by looking at underlying movement, which again has been very strong here in October, and look at the inventory levels that we see in the channel. And again, those have been down 10%. We expect the year to end in balance.

我認為人們正在努力解決的問題是，我們今年是否會比 2025 年銷售更多 410A，但我們並沒有看到太多這樣的情況。一旦塵埃落定，還會有幾個百分點嗎？也許吧，但我們只是 - 這都是真正的潛在需求的函數 - 我們能夠理解這一點的唯一方法是通過觀察潛在的運動（十月份再次非常強勁）並觀察庫存水平我們在頻道中看到的。而且，這些數字又下降了 10%。我們預計今年將實現平衡。

So we don't think it's a pull forward, but we certainly expect 410A to be sold a fair amount of it in the first quarter. I think in terms of pricing, we've been very clear that the base price of 454B will be 10% higher than the base price of 410A. And then to get to the 15% to 20% over two years, you get escalation.

所以我們不認為這是一個拉動，但我們當然預計 410A 將在第一季售出相當數量的產品。我認為在定價方面，我們已經非常明確454B的基礎價格將比410A的基礎價格高出10%。然後要在兩年內達到 15% 到 20%，就會升級。

And I think that that's appropriate. And I think that once our customers and others, I assume see the underlying cost impact of having to put additional parts into the 454B system and different controls and algorithms to associated with the [A-2-O], I think others will price in however they decide to price. And that's how we've determined is appropriate for us to price it. And we think that that's going to stick.

我認為這是適當的。我認為，一旦我們的客戶和其他人看到必須將額外部件放入 454B 系統以及與 [A-2-O] 相關的不同控制和演算法所帶來的潛在成本影響，我認為其他人會定價然而他們決定定價。這就是我們確定適合我們定價的方式。我們認為這種情況將會持續下去。

Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks, guys.

知道了。這非常有幫助。謝謝，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Tusa, J.P. Morgan.

史蒂芬‧圖薩，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Sam, thanks again for all the help and best of luck. So just on this light commercial business, how are you kind of looking at that into next year and any impact you're seeing from the Ester [cliff]?

Sam，再次感謝您的幫助，祝您好運。那麼，就這個輕商業業務而言，您如何看待明年的情況以及您從 Ester 中看到的任何影響[懸崖]？

Well, a little bit early to say next year, Steve. I think our goal right now is to end with inventory levels and balance. That's why we assume down 15% in the fourth quarter of this year. Ester has been very, very helpful. But that continues, the actual spend associated with Ester will certainly continue throughout 2025.

好吧，說明年有點早，史蒂夫。我認為我們現在的目標是結束庫存水準和平衡。這就是為什麼我們假設今年第四季下降 15%。酯非常非常有幫助。但這種情況持續下去，與 Ester 相關的實際支出肯定會持續到 2025 年。

What happened with Ester is the $190 billion of Ester funding is now behind us. There was about $20 billion that I think that return from the states of the Department of Energy. But that has to be spent, currently, it's the requirement is that gets spent by March of 2026. So we'll still be continuing to spend on our wins throughout all of next year into the 2026. And there's 30 states that are looking to extend their spend requirement beyond March of 2026.

Ester 的情況是，1900 億美元的 Ester 資金現在已經過去了。我認為能源部各州的返還金額約為 200 億美元。但這是必須花掉的，目前要求是在 2026 年 3 月之前花完。因此，從明年到 2026 年，我們仍將繼續為我們的勝利投入資金。有 30 個州希望將支出要求延長至 2026 年 3 月之後。

We've had some really big wins on K-12 in particular states like California and Arizona, where we've had had very, very significant win. So that's been a big part of our success. It's not just K-12, it's some of the other verticals. So it's been a good news story for us. I think this year will be up, as I mentioned, low single digits. Early to say, Steve, exactly what we see for next year. But our whole focus now is especially on the small rooftop units, making sure inventory levels come down a bit in the channel.

我們在 K-12 賽上取得了一些非常重大的勝利，尤其是在加州和亞利桑那州等州，我們在這些州取得了非常非常重大的勝利。所以這是我們成功的一個重要部分。不僅是 K-12，還有其他一些垂直領域。所以這對我們來說是一個好消息。正如我所提到的，我認為今年的成長將是低個位數。史蒂夫，早說，這正是我們明年所看到的。但我們現在的重點尤其是小型屋頂單位，確保通路中的庫存水準略有下降。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just for Veissmann, there's a little bit of math required here, which is always a challenge, I guess, early in the morning, but it looks to me to be about, I don't know, a 10% margin for adjusted OPE margin for 3Q. And then for the year now you're at like more like 11. Is that about right for the margin?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，對於 Veissmann 來說，這裡需要一點數學知識，我想，這總是一個挑戰，在清晨，但在我看來，我不知道，調整後的利潤率大約是 10%第三季營業利潤率。然後今年你的年齡大概是 11 歲左右。這對於保證金來說合適嗎？

Yes. Steve, for the full year, 11 is certainly in the ballpark and then EBITDA is mid-teens actually.

是的。史蒂夫，全年來說，11 肯定是在大概範圍內，然後 EBITDA 實際上大約是十幾歲。

Mid-teens EBITDA. But the adjusted OPE that's running through your adjusted P&L?

EBITDA 達到十幾歲。但調整後的經營利潤是否貫穿調整後的損益表中呢？

Yes. I mentioned 11 is certainly in the ballpark and full year EBITDA is close to -- actually mid-teens actually.

是的。我提到 11 肯定在大概範圍內，全年 EBITDA 接近——實際上是十幾歲左右。

We know you want to get to the lowest number, Steve. (laughter)

我們知道你想要得到最低的數字，史蒂夫。（笑聲）

Okay. Thanks a lot, guys.

好的。非常感謝，夥計們。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

Thanks, good morning. Just to spend a minute on refrigeration. I think first, can you sort of level set what the margin profile ex-CCR looks like just to have a base as we enter '25. Is this sort of like a 14% type or a little bit lower EBIT margin business since CCR is immaterial? And the second part of the question is, it's good to see orders in for trailer in flat. So maybe just talk a little bit about the business trends and how those might set up for growth for 2025.

謝謝，早安。只是花一分鐘的時間來冷藏。我想首先，你能否對前 CCR 的利潤狀況進行某種程度的設定，以便在我們進入 25 年後有一個基礎。由於 CCR 並不重要，這是否屬於 14% 類型或 EBIT 利潤率稍低的業務？問題的第二部分是，很高興看到平板拖車的訂單。所以也許只是談談商業趨勢以及這些趨勢如何為 2025 年的成長奠定基礎。

Maybe, Noah, let me take this second one first, and Patrick will take the first one. We're not reading anything into the orders numbers that you saw for NATT. You know there're some easy compairs there. Were just looking at the underlying business. It's going to be a tough year for North American truck trailer because some of the under -- we don't think we've necessarily gained or lost any share there, but it's just a tough business for the market.

諾亞，也許讓我先拿第二個，派崔克拿第一個。我們沒有在您看到的 NATT 訂單號碼中讀取任何內容。你知道那裡有一些簡單的比較。我們只是專注於基礎業務。對於北美卡車拖車來說，這將是艱難的一年，因為我們認為我們不一定會獲得或失去那裡的任何份額，但這對市場來說是一項艱難的業務。

The key for us is to make sure that we position -- close out the year, but really position ourselves for growth next year. We're confident we'll get growth going into next year. ACTE has relatively modest growth. I think, mid-single digits going into next year. But we have some other things that we want to push to kind of get outsized growth on top of that. But yes, the orders number was very high, but we're sort of discounting it because of the comparison.

對我們來說，關鍵是要確保我們的定位——結束這一年，但真正為明年的成長做好定位。我們有信心明年將實現成長。ACTE 的成長相對溫和。我認為，明年將達到中個位數。但我們還有其他一些事情想要推動，以實現超額成長。但是，是的，訂單數量非常高，但由於比較，我們有點折扣。

Yeah, and then Noah, on the first question, this year, refrigeration margins excluding commercial refrigeration would be up about 300 basis points, give or take. And then as I mentioned for a Carrier going forward, or think Carrier 2025 versus 2024, we will lose $750 million of revenue related to CCR. But basically, as I said, immaterial operating profit. So if you do that math basically our operating margin next year will be up 50 basis points just because of the absence of commercial refrigeration.

是的，然後諾亞，關於第一個問題，今年，不包括商業製冷在內的製冷利潤率將上升約 300 個基點，無論大小。然後，正如我所提到的營運商未來發展，或考慮到營運商 2025 年與 2024 年相比，我們將損失 7.5 億美元與 CCR 相關的收入。但基本上，正如我所說，營業利潤並不重要。因此，如果你算一下，基本上我們明年的營業利潤率將因為沒有商業冷氣而增加 50 個基點。

Last quick question. The $200 million of cost synergies for VCS by year three, could see that you reiterated, where do you expect that to pencil out for this year, specifically as it so $75 million or so? And then should we think about kind of a ratable amount of synergies captured in '25 as well?

最後一個快速問題。到第三年，VCS 的成本協同效應將達到 2 億美元，您可能會重申，您預計今年的成本將在哪裡，特別是 7500 萬美元左右？然後我們是否也應該考慮在 25 年中捕獲的某種程度的協同效應？

Yeah. I think it's a good way to think about it. I think this year we've said 75, it might end up a bit more than that, but it's kind of in that zone. And I think it will be a bit ratable. And look hats off to the team, in the category of controlling the controllables, we've seen very strong savings on the material side, both direct and indirect.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的思考方式。我想今年我們說的是 75，最終可能會比這個多一點，但也差不多在這個區域了。我認為這會有點值得評價。向團隊致敬，在控制可控因素方面，我們在材料方面看到了非常大的直接和間接節省。

The team has been very aggressive at taking cost out. It's never fun. It's never easy. But I would say if there's been any -- anything good in the midst of the sales being down much further than we planned, is it's forced us to take a bunch of costs out of the system. So if we can keep that overall cost down as we go into next year, it should drop through at higher margins than we had anticipated.

該團隊在降低成本方面非常積極。這從來都不是一件有趣的事。這從來都不容易。但我想說的是，如果銷售額比我們計劃的下降得更多，有什麼好處的話，那就是它迫使我們從系統中削減了大量成本。因此，如果我們能夠在進入明年時保持總體成本下降，那麼其利潤率應該會高於我們的預期。

Great. Thanks guys.

偉大的。謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Hi, guys, good morning.

嗨，夥計們，早安。

Hi, Andrew.

嗨，安德魯。

Just to follow up on Steve's question on Ester running over. What we've been hearing is that sort of folks have been able to tap into other sources at the IRA. So that's what's smoothing out of the process. Would that be consistent with what you're hearing in the channel?

只是為了跟進史蒂夫關於埃斯特跑過來的問題。我們所聽到的是，這類人已經能夠利用愛爾蘭共和軍的其他來源。這就是整個過程的平滑過程。這與您在頻道中聽到的一致嗎？

I think so, Andrew, I think the way we're looking at it, frankly, is that there has been more funding available for this segment K-12 than ever basically. And the way we see it is that that's really been driving a lot of the strength that we've seen in that segment for the last couple of years, leading into the next couple of years.

我認為是的，安德魯，坦白說，我認為我們看待這個問題的方式是，K-12 這一部分的可用資金基本上比以往任何時候都多。我們認為，這確實推動了過去幾年我們在該領域看到的大量力量，並持續到未來幾年。

What we think will happen in the reason we don't see the strength we've seen they're discontinuing as we go into the second half of 2026 is that the school budgets themselves have -- but they've been having budgets -- they have not been spending because they've been spending Federal money. So I think that there's going to be pent-up capacity of the local school budgets to spend as we get into 2026 and beyond. So we think the strength we've seen will continue because frankly, there's long overdue requirements in the school system.

進入 2026 年下半年，我們認為，由於學校預算本身沒有——但他們一直都有預算——，所以我們沒有看到他們停止的力量。 他們沒有花錢，因為他們一直在花聯邦錢。因此，我認為，進入 2026 年及以後，當地學校預算將有被壓抑的支出能力。因此，我們認為我們所看到的優勢將持續下去，因為坦白說，學校系統中存在著早就該提出的要求。

Got you. And just a follow-up question, I know you sort of provided initial framework for '25, just a question as it relates to free cash flow, any one-time items that we should consider within that framework that were maybe related to this many acquisition, how you treated some of the items on the balance sheet, anything that we should think about it for '25? Or should we just model normal free cash flow conversion rate within historical range for '25?

明白你了。只是一個後續問題，我知道您為 25 年提供了初步框架，這只是一個與自由現金流相關的問題，我們應該在該框架內考慮的任何一次性項目可能與這麼多相關收購，你如何處理資產負債表上的一些項目，我們在25 年應該考慮什麼？或者我們應該只對 25 年歷史範圍內的正常自由現金流轉換率進行建模？

Yes, at this point, Andrew, there is nothing that I would call out. Obviously, we would target to get to 100% of adjusted income taking into account restructuring charges that are cash that we adjust out. So obviously, our target would be to get to that level.

是的，安德魯，在這一點上我沒有什麼可指出的。顯然，考慮到重組費用（我們調整的現金），我們的目標是達到 100% 的調整後收入。顯然，我們的目標是達到這個水準。

Thanks so much. And Sam, congratulations.

非常感謝。山姆，恭喜你。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. I wanted to ask on orders, obviously you're up nearly 20%, very strong mark. But you guys said at the Laguna during a conference that the first two months of the year, we're tracking up 20 to 30. So I guess my question is that anything soften in September? Anything get pushed out? Or is there some impact from the move into discontinued ops?

謝謝。我想詢問訂單情況，顯然你們上漲了近 20%，非常強勁。但你們在拉古納舉行的一次會議上說，今年前兩個月，我們正在追蹤 20 到 30 個。所以我想我的問題是九月有什麼軟化的情況嗎？有東西被推出來嗎？或者轉向停止營運是否會產生一些影響？

No. What it really was, Chris, is just frankly was resi, that there's been some swings in ordering some of the resi orders. We mentioned resi was up 30% in the quarter. A lot of that was in the first two months, and a lot of our resi orders for the 410A really stopped or slowed as we got into September. So we had said at Laguna Beach that it was up 20 to 30, we ended up right around 20. And I think the only delta had to do with resi orders in September.

不。克里斯，坦白說，真正的問題是 Resi，一些 Resi 訂單的訂購出現了一些波動。我們提到本季 Resi 上漲了 30%。其中大部分是在前兩個月發生的，進入 9 月後，我們的 410A 的許多 Resi 訂單確實停止或放緩。所以我們在拉古納海灘說漲了 20 到 30，我們最終就在 20 左右。我認為唯一的增量與 9 月的 Resi 訂單有關。

Appreciate that. Thank you. And then Dave, you also talked recently about an aftermarket 2.0 strategy. So maybe can you talk a little bit about how that differs from the existing aftermarket go to channel approach? And is there a cost associated with the new strategy? And then ultimately, what opportunity does that bring for Carrier?

很欣賞這一點。謝謝。Dave，您最近也談到了售後市場 2.0 策略。那麼，也許您可以談談這與現有的售後市場進入通路方法有何不同？新策略是否會產生相關成本？最終，這會為開利帶來什麼機會？

Yes. I think when we energized with [Azure ergo] on the team our 1.0 strategy going back to like 2019, 2020, it was a lot of the basics. It was really making sure, for example, that we had parts flowing through our system and not going around us. It was having a tiered offering. It was having digital connectivity so that we could start to monitor some of the equipment, attract the equipment and having a really cascaded set of metrics around attachment rates, and conversion rates, and total coverage.

是的。我認為，當我們透過 [Azure ergo] 為團隊注入活力時，我們的 1.0 策略可以追溯到 2019 年、2020 年，其中涉及很多基礎知識。例如，它確實確保了我們的零件流經我們的系統，而不是繞過我們。它有一個分層的產品。它具有數位連接，這樣我們就可以開始監控一些設備，吸引設備，並擁有一組圍繞附著率、轉換率和總覆蓋率的真正級聯的指標。

I think we're now looking at just the next level of sophistication having to do with rotable pools and looking at where we stack our inventory and using better algorithms to make sure that we have the right partners in the right locations to support our customers when we need -- when our customers need us to avoid the high leakage rates we're seeing in parts.

我認為我們現在正在研究與可旋轉池有關的下一個複雜程度，並研究我們的庫存堆放位置，並使用更好的算法來確保我們在正確的位置擁有正確的合作夥伴來支持我們的客戶當我們的客戶需要我們避免當零件出現高洩漏率時，我們需要。

When we look at connecting 50,000 chillers now using that data to create value for our customers, and looking not only at maintenance uptime and looking at prognostics and diagnostics, but looking at other value-added things we can create looking at things like carbon tracking, so we can give more value added services.

當我們現在使用這些數據連接 50,000 台冷水機為客戶創造價值時，不僅關注維護正常運行時間以及預測和診斷，還關注我們可以創建的其他增值內容，例如碳跟踪，這樣我們就可以提供更多的加值服務。

For Lynx, you're getting in -- for our cold chain, looking at things like our supermarket customers, knowing exactly what's going to arrive when they need it, so they can have the shelf space ready for it. So we're taking the fundamentals that we've had and building on it.

對於 Lynx 來說，您要進入我們的冷鏈，關注像我們的超市客戶這樣的東西，確切地知道他們需要時會到達什麼，這樣他們就可以準備好貨架空間。因此，我們正在利用已有的基礎知識並在此基礎上繼續發展。

There's some modest investments associated with it, but the beauty of the aftermarket is it's 10% higher margin than the base business. That doesn't require huge investments, what it requires is focus every single day on everyone in the business to go drive the results. It's now into the DNA across the enterprise, including these make -- climate solutions that will drive double-digit aftermarket growth this year. We have a bigger percentage of our portfolio residential, so it drives every single part of the portfolio, not just commercial HVAC to live and breathe it every day. And I see that happening through our 50,000 people.

與之相關的是一些適度的投資，但售後市場的美妙之處在於它的利潤率比基礎業務高出 10%。這不需要巨額投資，所需要的是每天專注於業務中的每個人以推動結果。它現已融入整個企業的 DNA，包括這些製造商的氣候解決方案，這些解決方案將推動今年售後市場實現兩位數的成長。我們的住宅投資組合中所佔比例較大，因此它推動投資組合的每個部分（而不僅僅是商業暖通空調）每天生活和呼吸。我在我們的 50,000 名員工身上看到了這種情況的發生。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

很欣賞這一點。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回管理層以供結束語。

Okay. Well, thank you all for joining. Patrick mentioned thanking the finance team, which is very appropriate. And again, thank you, Sam, to everything you've done for all of us over these past five years. And thanks to the 50,000 teammates that we have within Carrier, we've had a lot going on in the system this whole performing while transforming. I can't thank our team enough. And I thank our customers and our shareholders for their continued confidence. And we're very, very excited to close out the year strong and then really deliver outsized results as we get into 2025. So thank you all very much.

好的。好的，謝謝大家的加入。Patrick提到感謝財務團隊，非常恰當。再次感謝您，Sam，感謝您在過去五年中為我們所有人所做的一切。感謝 Carrier 內部的 50,000 名隊友，我們在整個系統轉型過程中發生了很多事情。我對我們的團隊感激不盡。我感謝我們的客戶和股東的持續信任。我們非常非常興奮能夠以強勁的表現結束這一年，並在進入 2025 年時真正實現超額業績。非常感謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。