開利公司 (CARR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Sam Pearlstein, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Sam Pearlstein。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Carrier's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. With me here today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長戴維·吉特林 (David Gitlin)；派崔克‧戈里斯（Patrick Goris），財務長。

We will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available to download from Carrier's website at ir.carrier.com.

我們將在這次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計原則措施，管理層認為這些措施與評估業務的財務表現有關。這些非 GAAP 指標與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，收益報告可從 Carrier 網站 ir.carrier.com 下載。

The company reminds listeners that the sales, earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided during the call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. (Operator Instructions)

該公司提醒聽眾，電話會議期間提供的銷售、收益和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。 Carrier 向 SEC 提交的文件（包括表格 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K）提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。 （操作員說明）

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Dave Gitlin.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Dave Gitlin。

Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. We've had an exciting start to the year. We welcomed 12,000 new team members from Viessmann Climate Solutions to the Carrier family, made great progress on our business exits and delivered very strong financial results, positioning us for yet another year of significant margin expansion and solid growth.

謝謝你，山姆，大家早安。我們今年有一個令人興奮的開始。我們迎來了菲斯曼氣候解決方案公司的12,000 名新團隊成員加入開利大家庭，在業務退出方面取得了巨大進展，並取得了非常強勁的財務業績，為我們在又一個利潤率顯著擴張和穩健增長的一年做好了準備。

Starting with the highlights of our strong first quarter results on Slide 3. On low-single-digit organic sales growth, we drove 280 basis points of adjusted margin expansion and 19% adjusted EPS growth. I am very proud of the team. We have made enormous progress on our lean journey and driving sustained productivity, and we are seeing it in our results.

從幻燈片3 中我們強勁的第一季業績的亮點開始。 。我為這個團隊感到非常自豪。我們在精益之旅和推動持續生產力方面取得了巨大進步，我們在結果中看到了這一點。

Our formula is working, drive productivity tenaciously, simplify the business, reduce overhead, invest in growth, all while increasing margins. Our performance and transformation all tied to our clear North Star, to be the global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, and we are making great progress on our vision, as you see on Slide 4.

我們的公式正在發揮作用，頑強地提高生產力，簡化業務，減少管理費用，投資成長，同時提高利潤。我們的業績和轉型都與我們明確的北極星息息相關，即成為智慧氣候和能源解決方案的全球領導者，正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣，我們正在朝著我們的願景取得巨大進展。

We provide our customers with differentiated sustainability solutions. For buildings, our North American small rooftop units have the highest efficiency in the market, with the smallest footprint. Our water cool chillers, with magnetic bearings, provide best-in-class efficiency with the ability to match cooling loads with variable demand during the course of the day.

我們為客戶提供差異化的永續發展解決方案。對於建築而言，我們的北美小型屋頂機組具有市場上最高的效率和最小的佔地面積。我們的水冷式冷水機組配有磁力軸承，可提供一流的效率，能夠根據一天中的變化需求來匹配冷卻負載。

For homes, Viessmann's newly launched heat pumps expand our addressable market in Europe by approximately $5 billion and in typical Viessmann fashion, deliver 15% to 25% energy savings versus competitors and are the quietest on the market.

對於家庭而言，菲斯曼新推出的熱泵將我們在歐洲的潛在市場擴大了約50 億美元，並且按照菲斯曼的典型風格，與競爭對手相比，可節省15% 至25% 的能源，並且是市場上最安靜的熱泵。

For the cold chain, our new HE19 trailer reefer unit reduces fuel consumption by 30% compared to our previous offerings and by 10% compared to our competition. And our new OptimaLINE container unit consumes roughly 15% less energy than our competitors. Our digital strategy is also a critical enabler and differentiator.

對於冷鏈，我們的新型 HE19 拖車冷藏裝置與我們之前的產品相比，燃料消耗減少了 30%，與競爭對手相比，燃料消耗減少了 10%。我們的新型 OptimaLINE 貨櫃裝置的能耗比競爭對手低約 15%。我們的數位策略也是一個關鍵的推動因素和差異化因素。

For buildings, we now monitor more than 1.2 billion square feet through Abound, a 10% increase from last quarter, with additional key scale customers attracted to our new net zero features. For homes, Viessmann's One Base digital platform is the only home energy management system in the world that integrates space heating and cooling, water heating, solar PV with battery storage with a grid interface. Both Viessmann's One Base platform and our North American InteliSense platform enable early detection of potential malfunctions, with notifications to installers, helping address problems before they occur.

對於建築物，我們現在透過 Abound 監控超過 12 億平方英尺，比上個季度增加了 10%，更多的關鍵規模客戶被我們新的淨零功能所吸引。對於家庭而言，菲斯曼的 One Base 數位平台是世界上唯一整合了空間供暖和製冷、熱水、太陽能光伏發電以及帶有電網介面的電池儲存的家庭能源管理系統。 Viessmann 的 One Base 平台和我們的北美 InteliSense 平台都可以及早發現潛在故障，並向安裝人員發出通知，協助在問題發生之前解決問題。

In the cold chain, we have recently introduced new capabilities to help optimize cooling and thus, reduce our customers' operating costs, helping us increase link subscriptions by 50% in just the past year.

在冷鏈方面，我們最近推出了新功能來幫助優化冷卻，從而降低客戶的營運成本，幫助我們在過去一年內將連結訂閱量增加了 50%。

In summary, we are very pleased with our clear traction as the Global Climate Champion, driven by technology and digital differentiation. We also remain very purposeful in driving aftermarket growth as you see on Slide 5.

總而言之，在科技和數位差異化的推動下，我們作為全球氣候冠軍的明顯吸引力感到非常高興。正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，我們仍然致力於推動售後市場的成長。

In Q1, aftermarket was up 6%, led by another quarter of double-digit growth in commercial HVAC, and we remain on track for another year of double-digit growth. We now have about 75,000 chillers under a long-term agreement, about 35,000 of which are digitally connected. And our attachment rate reached its highest level ever, 48%. We also connected nearly 5,000 chillers, the highest in a quarter since our spin 4 years ago. The playbook works and our KPIs are consistent and cascaded globally, bringing focus and execution to this imperative.

第一季度，售後市場成長了 6%，其中商業暖通空調領域又一個季度實現兩位數成長，我們仍有望實現另一個兩位數成長。現在，我們簽訂了長期協議，擁有約 75,000 台冷水機組，其中約 35,000 台已數位化連接。我們的依戀率達到了有史以來的最高水平，48%。我們還連接了近 5,000 台冰水機組，這是自 4 年前啟動以來的一個季度最高水準。劇本的工作原理和我們的關鍵績效指標在全球範圍內保持一致和級聯，為這一當務之急帶來了重點和執行力。

We remain committed to our goal of $7 billion of aftermarket revenues by 2026. When we made this projection at our 2022 investor meeting, it assumed a high-single to low -- a high-single to low-double-digit CAGR. With our planned business exits and now the addition of Viessmann, we will divest about $500 million of net aftermarket sales. So to achieve the 2026 target of $7 billion, we now require a low-double-digit CAGR. We remain committed to this goal and are accelerating the deployment of our proven playbook to achieve it.

我們仍然致力於實現到 2026 年售後市場收入達到 70 億美元的目標。 當我們在 2022 年投資者會議上做出這一預測時，它假設了從高個位數到低位的複合年增長率。隨著我們計劃的業務退出以及現在菲斯曼的加入，我們將剝離約 5 億美元的淨售後市場銷售額。因此，為了實現 2026 年 70 億美元的目標，我們現在需要低兩位數的複合年增長率。我們仍然致力於實現這一目標，並正在加速部署我們經過驗證的策略來實現這一目標。

Turning to Slide 6. We could not be more proud of our combination with Viessmann Climate Solutions. Thomas Heim and his team have been all in on ensuring that our teams work as one, sharing best-of-best product technology, digital solutions, supply chain and operational opportunities and working seamlessly on multibrand, multichannel strategies globally. Viessmann Climate Solutions is a company built on excellence. This is a team that loves to win.

轉向幻燈片 6。 Thomas Heim 和他的團隊一直致力於確保我們的團隊團結一致，分享最好的產品技術、數位解決方案、供應鏈和營運機會，並在全球範圍內無縫地實施多品牌、多通路策略。菲斯曼氣候解決方案是一家以卓越為基礎的公司。這是一支熱愛勝利的球隊。

The opportunities to leverage its excellence in customer intimacy, product design, channel differentiation, brand strategy, sustainability solution, culture and talent development and operations will give Carrier a clear advantage to sustain differentiation and premier customer satisfaction.

開利有機會利用其在客戶親密度、產品設計、通路差異化、品牌策略、永續發展解決方案、文化和人才發展及營運方面的卓越表現，為維持差異化和卓越的客戶滿意度提供明顯的優勢。

We remain deeply confident in the long-term transition towards electrification and sustained growth in the market sustained growth in the market. With Germany aiming to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, and individual federal states like Bavaria as soon as 2040, discussions in major municipalities have started as to when the supply of natural gas to households will be limited or effectively stopped.

我們對向電氣化的長期轉型和市場的持續成長仍然充滿信心。隨著德國的目標是到 2045 年實現溫室氣體中和，巴伐利亞等個別聯邦州最快到 2040 年，主要城市已經開始討論何時限製或有效停止向家庭供應天然氣。

At the same time, 2 weeks ago, the EU adopted the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, under which each member country must adopt its own plan to reduce building energy usage by 20% to 22% by 2035, with at least 55% of the reduction coming from renovations to the worst performing buildings.

同時，兩週前，歐盟通過了《建築能源績效指令》，根據該指令，每個成員國必須制定自己的計劃，到2035年將建築能源使用量減少20%至22%，其中至少55 %減少來自對錶現最差的建築物的翻修。

While the long-term trend towards electrification remains robust, we are clear-eyed about the short-term market headwinds in the European residential market. Despite these headwinds, our team outperformed the end markets in Q1 through share gains, new product introductions, boiler sales and pricing. And our team is poised to continue doing so for the full year.

儘管電氣化的長期趨勢仍然強勁，但我們對歐洲住宅市場的短期市場阻力有著清醒的認識。儘管有這些不利因素，我們的團隊在第一季的份額成長、新產品推出、鍋爐銷售和定價方面的表現優於終端市場。我們的團隊準備全年繼續這樣做。

Viessmann's sales in Q1 were down 12% overall, more than half of which was driven by lower solar PV sales, which carry lower margins. For the full year, we now see VCS sales flat to down 5%, with Q2 revenues being similar to Q1 and an expected increase in the second half consistent with a typical seasonal pickup. Though heat pump orders in Q1 were down year-over-year, they were up nearly 60% sequentially and were the highest in the year. Despite 2024 sales expected to be lower than our February guide, we only see a modest impact to our full year adjusted EPS because the team is driving to offset reduced volume with increased productivity and synergies and favorable mix.

菲斯曼第一季的銷售額總體下降了 12%，其中一半以上是由於太陽能光伏銷售額下降造成的，而太陽能光伏銷售額的利潤率較低。就全年而言，我們現在看到 VCS 銷售額持平或下降 5%，第二季營收與第一季相似，預計下半年營收成長與典型的季節性回升一致。儘管第一季熱泵訂單量年減，但季增近60%，創年最高水準。儘管2024 年的銷售額預計將低於我們2 月份的指導，但我們認為對全年調整後每股收益的影響不大，因為團隊正在努力通過提高生產力、協同效應和有利的組合來抵消銷量的減少。

Cost synergies are tracking to about $75 million in 2024 and over $200 million by year 3. The cost actions position us for higher earnings conversion when the broader market recovers. We also remain very encouraged by revenue synergies, which we believe will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So we could not be more excited by the opportunities presented by this game-changing combination.

到 2024 年，成本綜效將達到約 7,500 萬美元，到第 3 年將超過 2 億美元。我們仍然對收入協同效應感到非常鼓舞，我們相信收入將達到數億美元。因此，我們對這個改變遊戲規則的組合所帶來的機會感到無比興奮。

Let me shift gears and talk about the unique opportunity presented by data centers, as you see on Slide 7. Over the past 3 years, we've capitalized on this important opportunity by securing key wins with scale customers globally. The AI movement is driving hyper and sustained growth in this space, not only driving data center growth, but also an outsized opportunity for cooling providers, given that AI chips drive 7x the heat generation versus traditional chips. Today, AI makes up about 20% of the load of a typical data center, and some of our customers project that percentage to increase to 80% in the next few years, thus parting huge demand on the grid and increasing the need for differentiated HVAC and control solutions.

讓我換個話題，談談資料中心帶來的獨特機遇，正如您在幻燈片7 中看到的那樣。重要機會。人工智慧運動正在推動這一領域的高速持續成長，不僅推動資料中心的成長，而且還為冷卻供應商提供了巨大的機會，因為人工智慧晶片產生的熱量是傳統晶片的 7 倍。如今，人工智慧約佔典型資料中心負載的 20%，我們的一些客戶預計該百分比在未來幾年內將增加到 80%，從而分流對電網的巨大需求並增加對差異化 HVAC 的需求和控制解決方案。

Accordingly, the data center market for the HVAC business is projected to increase from roughly $7 billion in 2023 to $15 billion to $20 billion in 2027. For us, this vertical represents a low double-digit percentage of our global commercial HVAC applied business, and we see a tremendous opportunity of increasing this segment to well over 20% of our commercial HVAC sales in the next few years.

因此，HVAC 業務的資料中心市場預計將從2023 年的約70 億美元增加到2027 年的150 億美元至200 億美元。佔較低的兩位數百分比，我們看到了巨大的機會，可以在未來幾年內將該細分市場增加到我們商用 HVAC 銷售額的 20% 以上。

We doubled our backlog in Q1 alone, and in April, secured further key wins as we optimize the use of our global footprint to support our customers.

光是第一季度，我們的積壓訂單就增加了一倍，並且在 4 月份，我們透過優化全球足跡來支持客戶，從而獲得了更多關鍵成果。

Turning to our transformation updates on Slide 8. In addition to the Viessmann integration, our business exits also continue to progress well. We are moving with speed and maximizing shareholder value. In March, we announced a definitive agreement for the sale of industrial fire for $1.4 billion in gross proceeds. This deal is expected to close in early 3Q.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的轉型更新。我們正在快速前進並最大化股東價值。 3 月份，我們宣布了一項以 14 億美元總收益出售工業火災的最終協議。該交易預計將於第三季初完成。

We now have definitive agreements for 3 of our 4 business exits and are within a couple of weeks of issuing or offering memorandum to prospective buyers for our residential and commercial fire business. We are targeting to close that deal by the end of this year.

目前，我們已就 4 個業務退出中的 3 個達成了明確協議，並將在幾週內向住宅和商業消防業務的潛在買家發布或提供備忘錄。我們的目標是在今年年底前完成這項交易。

We are focused, but not finished. The entire team remains extremely energized as we draw closer to becoming a higher growth, simpler, leaner pure-play climate champion. The pace of our transformation and the net proceeds put us on track to achieve about a 2x net leverage ratio this year and resume share repurchases in 2024.

我們很專注，但還沒完成。隨著我們越來越接近成為一個更高成長、更簡單、更精簡的純粹氣候冠軍，整個團隊仍然充滿活力。我們的轉型步伐和淨收益使我們預計在今年實現約 2 倍的淨槓桿率，並在 2024 年恢復股票回購。

With that, let me turn this over to Patrick. Patrick?

就這樣，讓我把這件事交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。請翻到投影片 9。

We had a good start to the year. Q1 earnings were well ahead of our expectations and the guide we provided in February. Reported sales of $6.2 billion were up 17%, with organic sales up 2% and a 15% net contribution from acquisitions and divestitures, substantially all Viessmann Climate Solutions. Q1 adjusted operating profit of $927 million was up 44% compared to last year, driven by favorable price and productivity and the contribution of Viessmann Climate Solutions, partially offset by investments. Strong price and productivity also drove adjusted operating margin expansion of 280 basis points compared to last year, despite the about 50 basis point dilutive impact from Viessmann.

我們今年有一個好的開始。第一季收益遠遠超出我們的預期和我們 2 月提供的指導。報告銷售額達 62 億美元，成長 17%，其中有機銷售額成長 2%，15% 的淨貢獻來自收購和剝離，其中大部分來自菲斯曼氣候解決方案。第一季調整後營業利潤為 9.27 億美元，比去年增長 44%，這得益於有利的價格和生產力以及菲斯曼氣候解決方案的貢獻，但部分被投資所抵消。儘管菲斯曼帶來了約 50 個基點的攤薄影響，但強勁的價格和生產力也推動調整後營業利潤率比去年增長 280 個基點。

Core earnings conversion, that is excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and currency, was well over 100% in the quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.62 was up 19% year-over-year and was well ahead of our Q1 guide of $0.50. March was particularly strong, representing 50% of Q1 earnings. Compared to last year, price and productivity more than offset the impact of increased investments and the expected $0.06 dilution from Viessmann Climate Solutions. We have included a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on Slide 23.

本季核心獲利轉換率（不包括收購、資產剝離和貨幣的影響）遠超過 100%。調整後每股收益為 0.62 美元，年增 19%，遠高於我們第一季指引值 0.50 美元。 3 月尤其強勁，佔第一季收益的 50%。與去年相比，價格和生產力足以抵消投資增加和菲斯曼氣候解決方案預計稀釋 0.06 美元的影響。我們在投影片 23 的附錄中包含了逐年調整後的 EPS 橋段。

Compared to our Q1 expectations, productivity came in stronger, and we benefited from the timing of a few items, including tax, amounting to about $0.05. Free cash outflow of $64 million was in line with typical seasonality and also reflects payments of M&A-related fees.

與我們第一季的預期相比，生產力變得更強，我們受益於一些項目的時機，包括稅收，金額約為 0.05 美元。自由現金流出 6,400 萬美元，符合典型的季節性，也反映了併購相關費用的支付。

Moving on to the segment, starting on Slide 10. HVAC reported sales growth of 25% reflects the contribution of Viessmann Climate Solutions and 2% organic sales growth. Organic sales in the Americas were up mid-single digits, driven by continued strength in commercial and light commercial, each up around 20%. This was partially offset by a low-single-digit decline in resi.

前往該細分市場，從幻燈片 10 開始。在商業和輕商業持續強勁的推動下，美洲的有機銷售額成長了中個位數，分別成長了 20% 左右。這被殘餘物的低個位數下降部分抵消。

North America resi volume was down mid-single digits, as we guided, and we expect volume to be up year-over-year in each of the remaining quarters. Organic sales in EMEA were down high-single digits, driven by significant weakness in resi light commercial, while commercial sales in EMEA remained strong and were up around 10%. Sales in Asia Pacific were flat, with growth in China, offsetting a decline in Japan as we continue to improve our mix in that country.

正如我們所指導的那樣，北美殘渣產量下降了中個位數，我們預計剩餘每季的產量將年增。由於樹脂輕質商業顯著疲軟，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機銷售額出現高個位數下降，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區的商業銷售額仍然強勁，成長了 10% 左右。亞太地區的銷售額持平，中國的銷售額有所增長，抵消了日本銷售額的下降，因為我們繼續改善在該國的產品組合。

This segment had very strong quarter -- had a very strong quarter, with a 240-basis-point adjusted operating margin expansion due to price and strong productivity and despite the consolidation of Viessmann Climate Solutions that negatively impacted margin by about 80 basis points.

儘管菲斯曼氣候解決方案的整合對利潤率產生了約 80 個基點的負面影響，但由於價格和強勁的生產力，該部門的季度業績非常強勁，調整後的營業利潤率增長了 240 個基點。

VCS earnings were broadly in line with our expectations, with favorable mix, productivity and synergies offsetting the impact of lower-than-expected sales. An excellent quarter for HVAC. And based on first quarter operational performance, we now expect 2024 full year HVAC segment margins to be up -- to be about 17.5%, up about 100 basis points compared to last year.

VCS 獲利基本上符合我們的預期，有利的組合、生產力和綜效抵消了低於預期的銷售額的影響。對於暖通空調來說，這是一個出色的季度。根據第一季的營運業績，我們現在預計 2024 年全年 HVAC 細分市場的利潤率將上升，約為 17.5%，比去年上升約 100 個基點。

Transitioning to refrigeration on Slide 11. Both reported and organic sales were down 2%. Within transport, container was up over 50% year-over-year and global truck and trailer was down low teens, driven by North America truck and trailer which was down about 25%, reflecting overall demand and elevated field inventories.

第 11 張投影片轉向冷藏。在運輸領域，貨櫃年增超過 50%，全球卡車和拖車銷量下降了 10%，北美卡車和拖車銷量下降了約 25%，反映了整體需求和現場庫存增加。

As a reminder, North America truck and trailer was up over 40% in last year's Q1. European truck and trailer was flat, and Asia truck and trailer was up a strong 20%. Our Sensitech business, which provides solutions for tracking and monitoring performance at temperature was up mid-single digits. Commercial refrigeration was down low-single digits year-over-year. We now expect the refrigeration segment to be up low-single digits in 2024 organically.

提醒一下，北美卡車和拖車去年第一季成長了 40% 以上。歐洲卡車和拖車持平，亞洲卡車和拖車強勁上漲 20%。我們的 Sensitech 業務提供了追蹤和監控溫度效能的解決方案，其業務成長了中個位數。商業製冷年減了低個位數。我們現在預計製冷產業到 2024 年將實現低個位數有機成長。

Adjusted operating margin was down 120 basis points compared to last year. This was mainly due to the absence of a $24 million gain related to a sale in last year's first quarter. Excluding that gain, Q1 adjusted operating margins were up 150 basis points year-over-year, driven by price and productivity.

調整後營業利益率較去年下降 120 個基點。這主要是由於去年第一季沒有與銷售相關的 2,400 萬美元收益。排除此收益，在價格和生產力的推動下，第一季調整後營業利潤率年增 150 個基點。

Moving on to Fire & Security on Slide 12. This segment had strong financial performance in the quarter. Reported sales were up 2%, with 7% organic sales growth, partially offset by a 5% headwind from the KFI deconsolidation. The residential and commercial fire business was up mid-single digits.

接下來是幻燈片 12 上的消防與安全。報告銷售額成長 2%，有機銷售額成長 7%，部分被 KFI 分拆帶來的 5% 阻力所抵銷。住宅和商業消防業務成長了中個位數。

Adjusted operating profit was up over 50% versus the prior year, and adjusted operating margins were up a significant 610 basis points year-over-year as volume growth, strong productivity and currency more than offset the headwind of the KFI exit. Overall, a very good quarter for this segment.

調整後營業利潤較上年增長超過 50%，調整後營業利潤率同比大幅增長 610 個基點，原因是銷量增長、強勁的生產力和匯率足以抵消 KFI 退出的不利影響。總體而言，該領域的季度表現非常好。

Turning to Slide 13. Total company orders were down about 7% in the quarter, mostly driven by North America truck and trailer orders due to a tough compare. In Q1 of 2023, North America truck and trailer orders were up 50% year-over-year, 5-0. Excluding North America truck and trailer, Carrier's organic orders were flattish in Q1. Overall, HVAC orders were down between 0% and 5% in the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 13。 2023 年第一季度，北美卡車和拖車訂單年增 50%，增幅為 5-0。不包括北美卡車和拖車，開利第一季的有機訂單持平。總體而言，本季暖通冷氣訂單下降了 0% 至 5%。

Within the Americas, commercial orders were up mid-single digits and North America resi orders had a second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Light commercial orders were down roughly 35% as order rates are impacted by lead times and a tough compare. EMEA commercial orders were up almost 30%, with applied equipment orders up around 60%, including an over 45% increase in data center orders. Organic resi and light commercial order intake in EMEA remains very weak.

在美洲，商業訂單成長了中個位數，北美樹脂訂單連續第二季年增。由於訂單率受到交貨時間和嚴格比較的影響，輕型商業訂單下降了約 35%。歐洲、中東和非洲商業訂單成長近 30%，其中應用設備訂單成長約 60%，其中資料中心訂單成長超過 45%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機樹脂和輕量商業訂單量仍然非常疲軟。

Within Asia, weak orders in Japan offset growth in other regions. Globally, commercial HVAC orders were up about 10%, and the backlog for that business continues to grow year-over-year and sequentially. Refrigeration orders were down about 25% to 30% in the quarter, mostly driven by the over 40% decline in global truck and trailer, reflecting the trends in North America, I mentioned earlier, along with growth in Europe and Asia. This was only partially offset by continued growth in orders in the container business, where orders were up high teens.

在亞洲範圍內，日本訂單疲軟抵消了其他地區的成長。在全球範圍內，商業 HVAC 訂單增長了約 10%，並且該業務的積壓訂單繼續逐年增長和環比增長。本季冷藏訂單下降約 25% 至 30%，主要是由於全球卡車和拖車下降超過 40%，反映了我之前提到的北美趨勢以及歐洲和亞洲的成長。這僅被貨櫃業務訂單的持續成長所部分抵消，該業務的訂單量增長了十幾倍。

Orders in Fire & Security were flat. Turning to Slide 14, guidance. Compared to our prior guidance, the only change with respect to exits is that industrial fire is now included for the first half of the year. Our prior guide included a full year of industrial fire as no definitive agreement had been announced at that time. So all 3 announced exits, access solutions, commercial refrigeration, and industrial fire are now included for the first half only of our 2024 full year guidance. Taking that into account, we now expect reported full year sales of a little less than $26 billion.

消防與安全領域的訂單持平。轉向幻燈片 14，指導。與我們先前的指導相比，退出方面的唯一變化是工業火災現已納入今年上半年。我們先前的指南包括一整年的工業火災，因為當時尚未宣布最終協議。因此，所有 3 個宣布的出口、通道解決方案、商業製冷和工業火災現在都包含在我們 2024 年全年指導的上半年。考慮到這一點，我們現在預計報告的全年銷售額將略低於 260 億美元。

Earlier business exit timing represents roughly $400 million of reduction and currency translation, another $100 million. Lower expected revenue at Viessmann Climate Solutions is roughly offset by expected upside in light commercial and commercial HVAC. The underlying organic growth rate in our guidance remains, therefore, unchanged at mid-single digits.

較早的業務退出時間意味著約 4 億美元的減少和貨幣換算，另外 1 億美元。菲斯曼氣候解決方案的預期收入下降大致被輕型商業和商用暖通空調的預期成長所抵消。因此，我們指導中的基本有機成長率仍保持在中個位數不變。

We are increasing our adjusted operating margin guidance to roughly 15.5%, driven by the strong earnings performance in Q1. We now expect full year earnings conversion to be north of 40%. Interest expense will be about $25 million lower, given the redeployment of the net proceeds from the industrial fire sale.

受第一季強勁獲利表現的推動，我們將調整後的營業利潤率指引提高至約 15.5%。我們現在預計全年獲利轉換率將超過 40%。考慮到工業減價出售淨收益的重新分配，利息支出將減少約 2,500 萬美元。

We are maintaining our adjusted EPS guidance range despite the earlier exit of industrial fire, which is a $0.05 headwind, given stronger performance in our core business. With the strong performance in Q1 and the exit of industrial fire in the second half, we now expect roughly 50% of full year adjusted EPS to be realized in the first half of the year.

儘管工業火災較早退出（帶來 0.05 美元的阻力），但考慮到我們核心業務的強勁表現，我們仍維持調整後的每股收益指引範圍。隨著第一季的強勁表現和下半年工業火災的退出，我們現在預計全年調整後每股收益的約50%將在上半年實現。

Before I get to free cash flow, I'd like to remind you that proceeds from the sale of businesses are reflected in cash flow from investing, and therefore, do not impact free cash flow. However, the tax payments on the gains on the sale of businesses are reflected in cash flow from operations and therefore, do impact free cash flow. Whereas this, of course, does not impact overall cash performance for the company, it does impact our free cash flow metric.

在討論自由現金流之前，我想提醒您，出售企業的收益反映在投資現金流中，因此不會影響自由現金流。然而，企業出售收益的稅金反映在經營現金流中，因此確實會影響自由現金流。當然，這不會影響公司的整體現金績效，但它確實會影響我們的自由現金流量指標。

Our free cash flow outlook is now $400 million, reflecting about $2 billion of tax payments on gains from the business exits and transaction-related costs. So no change in the $2.4 billion underlying free cash flow performance versus the prior guidance. The lower free cash flow outlook only reflects expected tax payments on the now announced industrial fire sale.

我們的自由現金流前景目前為 4 億美元，反映了業務退出收益和交易相關成本約 20 億美元的稅金。因此，24 億美元的基本自由現金流表現與先前的指導相比沒有變化。較低的自由現金流前景僅反映了目前宣布的工業減價出售的預期納稅額。

Moving on to Slide 15. Adjusted EPS guide to guide bridge. As you can see, our adjusted EPS guide at the midpoint remains $2.85, with stronger operational performance offsetting the $0.05 impact of the earlier exit of industrial fire and the impact of lower expected sales at Viessmann Climate Solutions. The darker blue represents the businesses we are retaining, including Viessmann Climate Solutions, whereas the lighter blue represents the adjusted EPS contribution from the businesses we are exiting.

前往投影片 15。正如您所看到的，我們調整後的每股收益指南中位數仍為2.85 美元，強勁的營運業績抵消了工業火災提前退出帶來的0.05 美元的影響以及菲斯曼氣候解決方案公司預期銷售額下降的影響。深藍色代表我們保留的業務，包括菲斯曼氣候解決方案，而淺藍色代表我們正在退出的業務調整後的每股盈餘貢獻。

At the midpoint of our new guidance, core adjusted EPS increases $0.05 compared to our February guide to $2.60. In the appendix on Slide 24, you will find a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge at guidance midpoint.

在我們新指引的中點，核心調整後每股收益比我們 2 月的指引增加 0.05 美元，達到 2.60 美元。在投影片 24 的附錄中，您會發現年比調整後的 EPS 橋段位於指引中點。

Given the tremendous transformation in the portfolio this year, Slide 16 may be a helpful framework for 2025. We start with a baseline of $2.60 from the core business at the midpoint of our 2024 guidance. In addition to our double-digit adjusted EPS growth target from our value creation framework, we expect another half year benefit from deploying the proceeds of industrial fire towards debt reduction.

鑑於今年投資組合的巨大轉變，幻燈片 16 可能是 2025 年的有用框架。除了我們的價值創造框架中調整後的兩位數每股收益成長目標之外，我們預計未來半年將受益於將工業火災收益用於減少債務。

In addition to that, net proceeds from the exit of commercial and residential fire would be available for deployment, including for buybacks. Finally, an additional lever is 2024 and 2025 free cash flow funded share repurchases. All of this is consistent with our prior messaging that we intend to repurchase at least the equivalent 58.6 million shares issued to the Viessmann family, while maintaining a solid investment-grade credit rating. In short, we have several levers available to deliver meaningful adjusted EPS growth in 2025 and beyond.

除此之外，商業和住宅火災退出的淨收益將可用於部署，包括回購。最後，另一個槓桿是 2024 年和 2025 年自由現金流資助的股票回購。所有這些都與我們先前的資訊一致，即我們打算回購至少相當於向 Viessmann 家族發行的 5,860 萬股股票，同時保持穩健的投資級信用評級。簡而言之，我們有多種槓桿可用於在 2025 年及以後實現有意義的調整後每股收益成長。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Dave for Slide 17.

這樣，我會將投影片 17 轉回給 Dave。

Thanks, Patrick. We delivered very strong results in the first quarter, and are confident that we will continue to perform while we transform. With the integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions, the completion of our exits and the superb progress on our base business, we continue to position ourselves as the global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions.

謝謝，派崔克。我們在第一季取得了非常強勁的業績，並且有信心在轉型過程中繼續保持良好表現。隨著菲斯曼氣候解決方案的整合、退出的完成以及基礎業務的出色進展，我們繼續將自己定位為智慧氣候和能源解決方案的全球領導者。

And with that, we'll open this up for questions.

接下來，我們將開放這個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

In terms of, I guess, the first question, maybe on VCS, no surprise. You talked about sales down low-double digits in Q1 and sort of down low-single digits for the full year as a whole. Maybe help us understand sort of year-on-year, how we should think about the second quarter playing out within that? And then for the year as a whole, how much of that decline is driven by that solar PV business as opposed to the sort of core HVAC part of VCS?

我想，第一個問題可能是在 VCS 上，這並不奇怪。您談到第一季的銷售額下降了兩位數，全年的銷售額下降了個位數。也許可以幫助我們了解同比情況，我們該如何看待第二季的情況？那麼，從全年來看，下降幅度有多少是由太陽能光電業務而非 VCS 的核心 HVAC 部分推動的？

Sure, Julian. Let me start and Patrick can add. Well, we did say actually flat to down mid-single digits for the full year previously, of course, up mid-single digits. We expect for Q2 will be -- the absolute sales number should be about the same as Q1, which, in that case, would put Q2 year-over-year down about 10% to 15%. Our forecast assumes in the second half that revenue would be up about 20% compared to the first half.

當然，朱利安。讓我開始，派崔克可以補充。好吧，我們確實說過，之前全年的實際成長率為持平或下降中個位數，當然，也有中個位數的上升。我們預計第二季的絕對銷售額應該與第一季大致相同，在這種情況下，第二季將年減約 10% 至 15%。我們的預測假設下半年營收將比上半年成長約 20%。

So this would be typical seasonality. If that were to happen, that would cause us to be down about 5% for the year. If orders pick up and we see better than seasonality pick up in the second half, then we would get closer to flat. As we think about the full year, we still expect positive growth in heat pumps. That's probably up in the mid-single-digit range.

所以這將是典型的季節性。如果這種情況發生，我們今年的股價將下跌約 5%。如果下半年訂單回升，並且我們看到比季節性回升更好的情況，那麼我們將接近持平。展望全年，我們仍預期熱泵業務將出現正成長。這可能在中間個位數範圍內。

We do see boilers down probably in the low-double-digit range. You asked about solar PV, that's probably down more than 30% for the year, which, as we said, has lower margins. And Thomas and the team are doing a superb job with aftermarket. That was up mid-teens in the first quarter, and we think that will continue for the full year.

我們確實看到鍋爐的下降可能在低兩位數範圍內。您詢問了太陽能光電發電，今年可能下降了 30% 以上，正如我們所說，太陽能光電發電的利潤率較低。湯瑪斯和他的團隊在售後市場做得非常出色。第一季這一數字上升了十幾歲左右，我們認為這種情況將持續到全年。

That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on the HVAC segment. So I think, Patrick, you talked about the full year margins in HVAC being up about 100 points year-on-year. Is that kind of a similar year-on-year rate, we should expect each quarter for the balance of the year? And I just wondered if you made any changes to the assumptions within HVAC? I think you called out stronger growth assumed now for light and applied commercial HVAC?

這非常有幫助。然後是暖通空調領域的快速跟進。所以我想，派崔克，你談到暖通空調領域的全年利潤率年增了約 100 個點。我們應該預期今年剩餘時間的每季都會出現類似的年成長率嗎？我只是想知道你們是否對暖通空調內部的假設做了任何改變？我想您認為現在輕型和應用商業暖通空調的成長會更加強勁？

Yes. Overall, for the year compared to our earlier guide, we think light commercial and commercial HVAC will be a little bit better. In terms of the year-over-year margin for HVAC as a segment, we do expect Q2 to be up about 100 basis points year-over-year. Q3 will probably be somewhat similar, and then we expect Q4 to be better year-over-year as well.

是的。總體而言，與我們之前的指南相比，我們認為今年輕型商業和商業暖通空調會好一些。就暖通空調細分市場的年比利潤率而言，我們預計第二季將年增約 100 個基點。第三季可能會有些相似，然後我們預計第四季也會比去年同期更好。

Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Dave, interesting to hear resi and commercial fire now prioritizing sale with kind of year-end close, right? So it sounds like you're close to something -- and so maybe you could address that? And is there something happening on PFAS to kind of expedite this and get it to kind of a sale process that can close? Obviously, we all saw JCI settled something in the MDL a couple of weeks ago.

戴夫，很有趣的是，雷西和商業火災現在優先考慮年底銷售，對吧？聽起來你已經很接近某件事了——所以也許你可以解決這個問題？ PFAS 是否會發生一些事情來加快這一進程並使其進入可以結束的銷售流程？顯然，幾週前我們都看到 JCI 在 MDL 中解決了一些問題。

Yes. Look, we feel that we've been progressing with PFAS very well. The Chapter 11 with KFI has gone exactly kind of as we expected and gone well. And we've been in mediation with the plaintiffs, and that's been progressing well. So we looked at the JCI. Of course, their settlement was for the water claims cases. It didn't cover PI. But I think in terms of us, we're very pleased overall with the progress that the legal team has been making on PFAS.

是的。看，我們覺得 PFAS 方面進展非常順利。 KFI 的第 11 章完全符合我們的預期，而且進展順利。我們一直在與原告進行調解，進展順利。所以我們研究了 JCI。當然，他們的和解是針對水費索賠案件的。它沒有涵蓋 PI。但我認為，就我們而言，總體而言，我們對法律團隊在 PFAS 方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

And then in terms of the sale of our residential and commercial fire business, we should be in the market with an offering memorandum probably in 2 weeks. The business is performing extremely well. The EBITDA this year is tracking higher -- much higher than it was last year, and it's progressing -- the business is performing well. And for a whole variety of reasons, we're prioritizing sell. We're not excluding the possibility of a public market exit, but we're prioritizing a sale. We should be in the market with the offering memorandum in a couple of weeks, and we're hoping to close by the end of this year.

然後，就我們的住宅和商業消防業務的出售而言，我們可能會在兩週內向市場提交發行備忘錄。該業務表現非常好。今年的 EBITDA 正在走高——遠高於去年，而且正在取得進展——業務表現良好。出於各種原因，我們優先考慮銷售。我們不排除公開市場退出的可能性，但我們會優先考慮出售。我們應該在幾週內帶著發行備忘錄進入市場，我們希望在今年年底前完成交易。

Great. And the biggest question I get on Carrier actually maybe, hits a little close to home. But Dave, you have a recent kind of deal with the company incentive program and the like. Are you there for good? Is the door still cracked open to consider something else. Every other day, I get asked if you're going to Boeing.

偉大的。我在開利遇到的最大問題實際上可能是切中要害的。但是戴夫，你最近與公司激勵計劃等達成了某種協議。你永遠在那裡嗎？門還開著，考慮別的事情嗎？每隔一天，我都會被問到你是否要去波音。

Well, Jeff, frankly, I'm really glad you asked that because I do want to address it head on, and I want to be clear that look, I've notified both our Board and the Boeing Board that I am 100% committed to Carrier. I'm really honored to be on the Boeing Board. I'll do everything I can to support that important company as a Board member.

好吧，傑夫，坦白說，我真的很高興你問這個問題，因為我確實想正面解決這個問題，而且我想清楚地表明，我已經通知我們的董事會和波音董事會，我百分百承諾至承運人。我非常榮幸能夠成為波音董事會成員。作為董事會成員，我將盡我所能支持這家重要的公司。

But given my commitment to Carrier, I've removed my name from consideration as a potential CEO of Boeing. And I'm not only committed to Carrier, I have to tell you, I'm so excited to be part of this journey. I mean rarely in your career, do you get to be part of such a transformational journey.

但鑑於我對開利公司的承諾，我不再考慮擔任波音公司的潛在執行長。我不僅致力於開利，我必須告訴你，我很高興能成為這段旅程的一部分。我的意思是，在你的職業生涯中，你很少能參與這樣的變革之旅。

And I don't know what inning we're in, but we're in the early innings on what I think will go down as one of the biggest transformations ever, and I'm so excited to be on the journey with 70,000 or so team members at Carrier. So I'm staying put 100% committed to Carrier, and I do appreciate you asking that, Jeff.

我不知道我們處於哪一局，但我們正處於早期幾局，我認為這將成為有史以來最大的變革之一，我很高興能與 70,000 名或開利的團隊成員也是如此。因此，我將 100% 忠於開利，我非常感謝你提出這個問題，傑夫。

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

You talked about data centers, low-double digits, global HVAC sales could be 20% over time. I think you said that data centers doubled this quarter in terms of backlog. So could you talk a little bit more about Carrier's position in the data center market? Maybe what you think your share is, where Carrier is in terms of liquid cooling and how to think about the shape of bookings going forward as '24 evolves? Do you see data center bookings continue to increase from what you booked in Q1?

您談到了資料中心，隨著時間的推移，全球 HVAC 銷售額可能會成長 20%。我想你說過本季資料中心的積壓數量翻了一番。那麼您能多談談電信商在資料中心市場的地位嗎？也許您認為您的分享是，開利在液體冷卻方面處於什麼位置，以及如何考慮隨著「24」的發展，未來的預訂情況？您是否認為資料中心的預訂量比第一季的預訂量持續增加？

Yes. I think, frankly, we got some really good quarters, Andy, in just even a couple of weeks ago in April. So this is a unique moment in time. It's exponential. Today, I would say in the U.S. We have low share. This is both for water cooled and air cooled chillers, but we think we're incredibly well positioned from a technology perspective.

是的。安迪，坦白說，我認為，就在幾週前的四月份，我們的季度業績非常好。所以這是一個獨特的時刻。這是指數級的。今天，我想說在美國我們的份額很低。這適用於水冷式和風冷式冷水機組，但我們認為從技術角度來看，我們處於非常有利的位置。

The key for us has not been technology. It's all been about expanding our capacity. So we're maxing out all of our facilities globally, and we're also going to be expanding our capabilities to support this in Mexico as well. So we -- our focus is making sure we're there for the -- all of our customers, especially some of the scale customers that are really leaning into this.

對我們來說，關鍵不是技術。這一切都是為了擴大我們的能力。因此，我們正在最大限度地利用全球所有設施，並且我們還將擴大我們的能力以支持墨西哥的這項工作。因此，我們的重點是確保我們為所有客戶提供服務，尤其是一些真正傾向於此的規模客戶。

It's not like anything we've seen. In some cases, we sell a few water cool chillers at a time. And here, we're looking at selling hundreds in a single order. So we feel very well positioned. We see the growth being exponential. We've invested in liquid cooling. We made a VC-type investment in SLT, which is strategic thermal labs. So that's really positioning us for the liquid cooling space for direct-to-chip cooling, we're seeing strength globally. Probably 70% of our sales are in North America, but we've done extremely well, both in Asia and in Europe. And this is a market that we have a dedicated Tiger team strictly focused on this space because it is such a unique moment in time.

這與我們見過的任何東西都不一樣。在某些情況下，我們一次銷售幾個水冷冷水機。在這裡，我們希望在一個訂單中銷售數百件。所以我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。我們看到成長呈指數級增長。我們投資了液體冷卻。我們對SLT進行了風險投資，這是戰略熱實驗室。因此，這確實使我們在直接晶片冷卻的液體冷卻領域處於領先地位，我們在全球範圍內看到了優勢。我們 70% 的銷售額可能來自北美，但我們在亞洲和歐洲都做得非常好。我們有一個專門的 Tiger 團隊嚴格專注於這個市場，因為這是一個非常獨特的時刻。

Very helpful. And Dave, maybe give us just a little more color into the productivity you drove in Q1. And what you're thinking for the rest of the year? I know you've guided to 30% incrementals in pass, but obviously did 100% there. I obviously understand you raised your margin guidance. But how sustainable is the kind of productivity acceleration you saw in Q1? And given rising material costs, how do you think about sort of the offset there with pricing?

很有幫助。戴夫（Dave），也許可以讓我們對您在第一季提高的生產力有更多的了解。今年剩下的時間你在想什麼？我知道你已經指導了 30% 的增量，但顯然已經做到了 100%。我顯然了解您提高了保證金指導。但您在第一季看到的生產力加速有多可持續？鑑於材料成本不斷上漲，您如何看待定價方面的抵銷作用？

Yes. I have to tell you that Adrian Button and operations team working with our businesses, it is the best that I have felt since I've been at Carrier about our ability to achieve sustained productivity. We have one single source of the truth. Every single one of our productivity actions globally is in one database. We can sort it 20 different ways. We all are marching to the beat of the same drum.

是的。我必須告訴你，阿德里安·巴頓（Adrian Button）和營運團隊與我們的企業合作，這是我自從加入開利以來對我們實現持續生產力的能力感到最好的感受。我們只有一個真相來源。我們在全球範圍內的每項生產力行動都儲存在一個資料庫中。我們可以用 20 種不同的方式來排序。我們都在同一個鼓點上前進。

I would say materials is doing particularly well. That's probably 50% of our productivity. Logistics is still a tailwind. That's probably 10 or so percent, we're really taking out a lot of overhead, which is a significant piece. And the factories are now resuming to productivity after a couple of years of negative productivity.

我想說材料做得特別好。這可能是我們生產力的 50%。物流仍然是一個推動力。這可能是 10% 左右，我們確實節省了很多開銷，這是一個重要的部分。在經歷了幾年的負生產力之後，工廠現在正在恢復生產力。

So we're also coming into the year and every quarter with a lot more productivity spoken for. So I feel tremendous about the progress. Yes we've seen some copper headwind. Price is getting up to like $4.50, but we got a little bit of offset from steel and aluminum. So I think we're very -- we're probably about half hedged on copper for the year. So I feel very -- very, very well calibrated on the year on productivity and also calibrated as we go forward beyond this.

因此，我們在今年和每季都聲稱生產力會大幅提高。所以我對進步感到巨大。是的，我們已經看到了銅的一些逆風。價格上漲到 4.50 美元左右，但我們從鋼和鋁中得到了一些補償。所以我認為我們今年可能對銅進行了大約一半的對沖。所以我覺得這一年的生產力水平得到了非常非常好的校準，並且在我們繼續前進的過程中也得到了校準。

Our next question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的湯米·莫爾 (Tommy Moll)。

Dave, I wanted to start with an update on A2L. What can you give us there in terms of when you plan to start or ramp production on the pricing front? Any revision or a reaffirmation of what you expect to capture over this year and next?

戴夫，我想從 A2L 的更新開始。當您計劃在定價方面開始或增加生產時，您能為我們提供什麼？您對今年和明年的預期拍攝內容有何修改或重申？

And then if there's a bogey you want to throw out, one of your competitors in the U.S. did yesterday, just in terms of how much of the demand the new product might represent next year, that would be helpful as well.

然後，如果您想排除一個忌諱，您的美國競爭對手昨天就這樣做了，就新產品可能代表明年的需求量而言，這也會有所幫助。

Yes, I think, first of all, yes, we would reaffirm what we've said about 15% to 20% price increase over 2 years. I mean that includes low-double-digit base price increase, 454B versus the 410A. And then you'll get a few percent of base price this year and next year. So I know there's some skeptics on that. We're already selling the 454B units. We shipped our first in the first quarter. Obviously, it won't be that much over the short term. But we already have a price point in the marketplace for them. We feel confident in the 15% to 20% over 2 years.

是的，我認為，首先，是的，我們會重申我們所說的 2 年內價格上漲 15% 至 20%。我的意思是，這包括 454B 與 410A 相比低兩位數的基本價格上漲。然後，今年和明年您將獲得基本價格的百分之幾。所以我知道有人對此持懷疑態度。我們已經開始銷售 454B 裝置。我們在第一季出貨了第一批。顯然，短期內不會有那麼多。但我們已經在市場上為它們設定了價格點。我們對 2 年內實現 15% 到 20% 的成長充滿信心。

I had previously said that we thought that about 20% of our mix this year would be 454B. I think it's going to be less than that. But to the extent we ship less 454B, I think that for us for the year will be offset by probably a little more prebuy than we thought on the 410A. So we feel good overall about this year calibrated at resi at the high-single digits. I saw what one of our peers said yesterday about the mix next year. I think it -- look, it's early to say. I think they were suggesting in the 60% range for 454B.

我之前說過，我們認為今年我們的組合中大約 20% 是 454B。我認為它會比這個少。但就我們 454B 出貨量減少而言，我認為對我們來說，今年的預購量可能會比我們對 410A 的預期多一點。因此，我們對今年以高個位數校準的整體感覺良好。我昨天看到我們的一位同行談到明年的混合。我認為——看，現在說還太早。我認為他們建議 454B 在 60% 的範圍內。

I think it will be more than that. I think you'll have some prebuy at the end of this year on the 410A, and that will cover into some percentage of the volume into 1Q, maybe a tiny bit into 2Q, but I think the bulk of the year will transition to 454B. So I don't know if it's in the 70% range, but it's -- I think it's a bit higher than 60%, but it remains to be seen.

我認為它會不止於此。我認為今年年底您會對 410A 進行一些預購，這將佔第一季度銷量的一定比例，可能會佔第二季度的一小部分，但我認為今年的大部分時間將過渡到 454B 。所以我不知道它是否在 70% 的範圍內，但我認為它比 60% 高一點，但這還有待觀察。

And Dave, a follow-up on light commercial HVAC trends in Americas. Orders were down meaningfully, but obviously on a tough comp. Can you just refresh us on your revenue expectation there this year and describe any aspect of the demand environment?

戴夫（Dave）是美洲輕型商業暖通空調趨勢的跟進者。訂單大幅下降，但顯然競爭非常激烈。您能否向我們介紹一下您今年的收入預期並描述一下需求環境的任何方面？

It's hard to look at year-over-year quarters, yes. Quarters -- orders in the quarter were down significantly. We look more at how we're positioned for the year. I think that we had said that sales for light commercial would be down mid-single digits this year, which assumed volume down high-single digits. Given that our first quarter was up a little north of 20% on sales, and we still have good backlog.

是的，很難查看同比各季度的數據。季度—該季度的訂單大幅下降。我們更專注於今年的定位。我認為我們曾說過，今年輕型商業的銷售額將下降中個位數，這是假設銷量下降高個位數。鑑於我們第一季的銷售額成長了 20% 以上，而且我們仍有大量積壓訂單。

Patrick said it. But I clearly think there's upside to that number. And there's still verticals that remain strong. You look at K-12, some of that value-based retail, some healthcare space like some of the urgent care centers, some of the quick-serve restaurants, they're still strong. So even though we expect year-over-year orders to decline, that base business remains very strong. And by the way, we keep -- we keep taking share and taking share of the right way based on technology differentiation. So still a good vertical for us. And again, I think, upside to our original guide on light commercial.

派崔克這麼說。但我顯然認為這個數字還有上升空間。而且仍然有一些垂直領域仍然很強大。你看看 K-12，一些基於價值的零售、一些醫療保健空間（例如一些緊急護理中心）、一些快餐店，它們仍然很強大。因此，儘管我們預計訂單量將同比下降，但基礎業務仍然非常強勁。順便說一句，我們繼續——我們繼續獲取份額，並基於技術差異化以正確的方式獲取份額。所以對我們來說仍然是一個很好的垂直領域。我認為，這比我們最初的輕商業指南更有優勢。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Just circle back on Viessmann. People were holding their breath about destocking. So just kind of where does that all shake out? And your line of sight on the resumption of the various European country incentives. I know you touched on that, in the prepared remarks. But what's the typical lag once the Germany reinstatates, Italy reinstates, I think they have done that already. But what's the typical lag between you start getting those orders?

回到菲斯曼。人們對去庫存屏息以待。那麼這一切在哪裡發生呢？而您的視線就恢復了歐洲各國的優惠政策。我知道你在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。但是，一旦德國恢復，義大利恢復，典型的滯後是什麼，我認為他們已經這樣做了。但是，您開始收到這些訂單之間的典型延遲時間是多少？

Well, look, I think in terms of the first piece. Because we're direct to installer, we don't see the same destocking that many of our peers do. So I think that the way we look at it is that piece is largely behind us. We're now back to traditional book and ship business.

嗯，看，我認為就第一件而言。因為我們直接聯繫安裝人員，所以我們不會像許多同行那樣減少庫存。所以我認為我們看待它的方式是，那部分基本上已經被我們拋在了身後。我們現在又回到了傳統的圖書和船舶業務。

So the significant backlog that existed -- like many of us, we saw the same thing in our U.S. resi business, you had just an untypical -- atypical high level of backlog a year, 1.5 years ago, that's now back to normal levels. When we look at what's kind of happening in Germany, and I think it's true in other countries that once the legislation gets promulgated, you do typically see and we're experiencing there's a bit of a lag between the subsidy definitization being finalized and new applications.

因此，存在大量的積壓，就像我們許多人一樣，我們在美國的 Resi 業務中也看到了同樣的情況，一年、1.5 年前，積壓水平非常高，現在已經恢復到正常水平。當我們看看德國發生的情況時，我認為在其他國家，一旦立法頒布，您通常會看到，我們正在經歷補貼定義最終確定和新申請之間存在一些滯後。

So the question is why would both boilers and heat pumps be down? I think that many customers in Germany know and throughout Europe know that, long term, you're going to transition to heat pumps. They wanted to make sure that the new legislation was going to stick and that there wouldn't be change. Obviously, the market is a little bit tight in Europe overall -- on the overall economy.

那麼問題是為什麼鍋爐和熱泵都會停機？我認為德國和整個歐洲的許多客戶都知道，從長遠來看，您將過渡到熱泵。他們希望確保新的立法能夠堅持下去並且不會改變。顯然，歐洲整體市場（整體經濟）有點緊張。

But now that the legislation is clearly firm, we do expect to see orders start to pick up. And what our expectation is orders start to pick up as we get into May and June that position us for the heating season as we get into September and October.

但既然立法顯然是堅定的，我們確實預計訂單會開始增加。我們的預期是，隨著進入 5 月和 6 月，訂單開始增加，這為我們進入 9 月和 10 月的供暖季節做好了準備。

That's really helpful. And then one of the other questions that we get on the dynamics of the heat pumps in Europe as -- what about this threat of some of the Asian players coming in at a discount product? And would that matter? Would it take share -- and our view is that there's always been a good, better, best stratification of brands in HVAC, and Viessmann is at the high end. You rattled off some of the future comparisons. But just what -- is there a risk about new entrants into the European heat pump market?

這真的很有幫助。然後，我們在歐洲熱泵動態方面遇到的另一個問題是──一些亞洲廠商以折扣產品進入市場的威脅又如何呢？這有關係嗎？是否需要分享—我們的觀點是，暖通空調領域一直存在良好、更好、最好的品牌分層，而菲斯曼處於高端。你滔滔不絕地講述了一些未來的比較。但新進入歐洲熱泵市場的企業是否有風險？

Well, I think you answered it perfectly well, Deane. I do think that Viessmann clearly plays in the premium end of the market. So I do think that even though there will be more competition at the entry tier level and the mid-tier, we think that because of the brand, the technology differentiation, the unique channel, we don't see that as a major threat directly to Viessmann.

嗯，我認為你回答得很好，迪恩。我確實認為菲斯曼顯然是在高端市場。因此，我確實認為，儘管入門級和中級市場的競爭將會更加激烈，但我們認為，由於品牌、技術差異化和獨特的管道，我們並不認為這是直接的主要威脅到菲斯曼。

I will add, by the way, that I was talking to the CEO of a major German company. And he was so impressed with the combination of Carrier and Viessmann Climate Solutions together, he said that if you look at German brands. If Viessmann is not #1, it's in the top 5 most respected brands in the country. And he was saying to me, kind of unsolicited how powerful this combination will be.

順便說一句，我要補充一點，我正在與一家德國大公司的執行長交談。他對開利和菲斯曼氣候解決方案的結合印象深刻，他說，如果你看看德國品牌。即使菲斯曼不是第一名，它也是全國最受尊敬的品牌前 5 名。他主動對我說，這個組合會有多強大。

So we'll preserve the Viessmann brand at the very high end. We are introducing Carrier in the mid-tier range both for heating and for cooling. So we think that's a unique space. And of course, we have Toshiba. So yes, there will be some new entrants in the market, but we feel not only is Viessmann protected on the high end, but we're actually seeing a bit of price tailwind as well.

因此，我們將保留菲斯曼的高端品牌。我們正在推出用於加熱和冷卻的中端系列 Carrier。所以我們認為這是一個獨特的空間。當然，我們還有東芝。所以，是的，市場上將會有一些新進入者，但我們認為菲斯曼不僅在高端市場受到保護，而且實際上我們也看到了一些價格順風車。

Our next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的諾亞·凱伊。

Dave, I'd like to stick with VCS. You highlighted early on the new product introductions, expanding the TAM by $5 billion. Would just love some more color on those product introductions. Curious to know to what extent they were developed in kind of any kind of synergy or technology road map coordination with legacy Carrier? And to what extent that's an opportunity going forward across the portfolio?

Dave，我想繼續使用 VCS。您很早就強調了新產品的推出，將 TAM 擴大了 50 億美元。只是喜歡在這些產品介紹上多一些色彩。很想知道它們在與傳統運營商的任何形式的協同或技術路線圖協調中發展到什麼程度？這在多大程度上是整個投資組合的一個機會？

Yes. Look, no, I wish I could take some form of credit, but this was done well before our watch. I mean this was Viessmann, over a period of time, developing products for the 16 to 19-kilowatt range, which is in that very high-end single-family home which is a new market for them, which they introduced in the first quarter. And here in the second quarter, they introduced 19 up to 40 kilowatts, which gets you into that small multifamily residential space. So very, very attractive new -- very attractive new product introductions. I mentioned this $5 billion TAM that they now position themselves for.

是的。聽著，不，我希望我能獲得某種形式的榮譽，但這早在我們上任之前就已經完成了。我的意思是，這是 Viessmann 在一段時間內開發了 16 至 19 千瓦範圍的產品，這是他們在第一季推出的非常高端的單戶住宅，這對他們來說是一個新市場。在第二季度，他們推出了 19 至 40 千瓦的電力，這讓您可以進入小型多戶住宅空間。非常非常有吸引力的新產品推出。我提到了他們現在定位的 50 億美元 TAM。

So again, it's one of the many reasons why you can see headline articles about heat pumps being down in Germany in the many tenth percentage range, while we'll be like flat or even heat pumps could be up for us this year. One of the reasons is the new TAM.

再說一次，這也是為什麼你會看到有關德國熱泵下降了百分之十的頭條文章的眾多原因之一，而我們今年的熱泵可能會持平甚至上升。原因之一是新的 TAM。

I will say, though, on the latter part of your question when it comes to revenue synergies, we are actively working on a whole bunch of technologies. And that's why I said that we could see revenue synergies in the hundreds of millions, and we put virtually zero in our business case. I think that's going to -- when we look back 5 years from now, I think we'll look and say that was one of the best upside to the business case that we saw.

不過，我要說的是，關於你問題的後半部分，當涉及收入協同效應時，我們正在積極研究一系列技術。這就是為什麼我說我們可以看到數億美元的收入協同效應，而我們的業務案例幾乎為零。我認為，當我們 5 年後回顧時，我想我們會說這是我們看到的商業案例的最佳優勢之一。

Even in North America, Viessmann has just introduced -- traditionally in North America, Viessmann was a boiler sale company. They've just introduced an air-to-water heat pump for North America, which could be very attractive in places like New England and Canada and some other discrete locations. And we can leverage their technology with our channel to go really attack the market in the United States. So a lot of interesting upside there.

即使在北美，菲斯曼也剛剛介紹——傳統上在北美，菲斯曼是一家鍋爐銷售公司。他們剛剛為北美推出了空氣對水熱泵，這對於新英格蘭和加拿大等地以及其他一些離散地區非常有吸引力。我們可以利用他們的技術和我們的管道來真正進攻美國市場。所以有很多有趣的好處。

Very interesting. And just on applied strength. I mean how much of this is just the data center story? How broad-based is it? Maybe you can talk on some of the other verticals where the demand just continues to sustain?

很有意思。並且僅靠施加的力量。我的意思是，其中有多少只是資料中心的故事？它的基礎有多廣泛？也許您可以談談需求持續持續的其他一些垂直領域？

Well, a lot of it is data centers. That's been very, very strong. Higher ed still remains strong. Healthcare, like hospitals, remains strong. When you look at it, it varies a little bit by region. We've seen some changes in China, for example. What was very strong in China was EV, solar production, all things renewables, that's now shifted in China. So we're now seeing strength in China from things like infrastructure and some of the other aspects of decarbonization.

嗯，其中很多都是資料中心。這非常非常強烈。高等教育仍然保持強勁。像醫院一樣，醫療保健仍然強勁。當您查看它時，會發現每個地區的情況略有不同。例如，我們看到中國發生了一些變化。中國非常強大的是電動車、太陽能生產和所有再生能源，但現在這些都在中國發生了變化。因此，我們現在看到中國在基礎設施和脫碳的其他一些方面的實力。

So some of the areas of strength will move. Data centers is strong globally. And then what's frankly been strong other than some changes within China remains strong. And what's been weak like commercial office has generally remained weak.

所以一些優勢領域將會改變。資料中心在全球範圍內都很強大。坦白說，除了中國國內的一些變化之外，其他的強勁因素仍然強勁。商業辦公等一直疲軟的業務總體上仍然疲軟。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

I want to go back to the C&R fire sale. I've got to say we were expecting a capital markets transaction, Dave. So just wondering if you had some indication of interest for that asset that gives you confidence in that sale process? And maybe, Patrick, if you could maybe size that business, we've got $2 billion of revenues, about 10% EBITDA margin, maybe it sounds like it's having a good year. So maybe just give us a projection for 2024.

我想回到 C&R 甩賣。我不得不說，我們期待資本市場交易，戴夫。所以只是想知道您是否對該資產有興趣，這讓您對銷售過程充滿信心？派崔克，如果你可以估算我們的業務規模，我們的收入為 20 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率約為 10%，也許聽起來今年是不錯的一年。所以也許請給我們一個 2024 年的預測。

Yes. Look -- and Nigel, I mean you were expecting it because I said it. So very fair. So we've changed. We are 100% prioritizing a sale. We completed about, I think, a 15-page teaser. We've discussed that with a number of interested buyers. The interest has been very high. So we've been extremely pleased with the reaction because it's a great set of assets.

是的。聽著——奈傑爾，我的意思是你已經預料到了，因為我這麼說了。所以非常公平。所以我們改變了。我們 100% 優先考慮銷售。我認為我們完成了大約 15 頁的預告片。我們已經與一些有興趣的買家討論了這個問題。人們的興趣一直都非常高。所以我們對大家的反應非常滿意，因為這是一組很棒的資產。

I mean you could see our Fire & Security business is performing very well. You're looking at Edwards very differentiated, GST very differentiated, Kidde very differentiated. You have a phenomenal set of brands that are uniquely positioned in their various spaces.

我的意思是你可以看到我們的消防與安全業務表現非常好。你會看到愛德華茲非常差異化，商品及服務稅非常差異化，基德非常差異化。您擁有一系列非凡的品牌，它們在各個領域都有獨特的定位。

So we'll see exactly where it ends up, but I am very pleased with the level of interest thus far, and we'll send out our offering memorandum in 2 weeks, Patrick, on the financials?

所以我們會確切地看到它最終的結果，但我對迄今為止的興趣水平非常滿意，我們將在兩週內發出我們的發行備忘錄，帕特里克，關於財務狀況？

Yes, Nigel, you can think of that business being roughly $2 billion, I'm rounding. And the current run rate EBITDA is in about the mid-200s now. So much better, and so we're happy with the improvement we're seeing in that business.

是的，奈傑爾，你可以認為這項業務大約有 20 億美元，我四捨五入。目前的 EBITDA 運行率約為 200 左右。好多了，所以我們對我們在該業務中看到的改進感到滿意。

Okay. That's great color. And then back to VCS. I mean based on the comments, Patrick, you made about the dilutive impact on the segments, I'm backing into maybe a 14.5% operating margin, maybe 15.5% EBITDA margin. For the quarter, is that right? And I'm just wondering if that is correct, if my math isn't too wonky, what is the path to high teens for the full year?

好的。那顏色真棒。然後回到 VCS。我的意思是，帕特里克，根據您對各部門的攤薄影響所做的評論，我支持的營業利潤率可能為 14.5%，EBITDA 利潤率可能為 15.5%。對於本季來說，是這樣嗎？我只是想知道這是否正確，如果我的數學不是太靠不住，那麼全年進入高中的道路是什麼？

Yes. So from an operating profit margin point of view, Nigel, you can think of Q1 being about 12.5%. And for the full year, again at the EBIT low it will be around 15%. Actually, we think maybe a little higher than that. So in line with the overall company average, but below the average for the HVAC segment. And that's at the EBIT level. And you can probably add a couple of points for that 2, 3 points to get to EBITDA.

是的。因此，從營業利潤率的角度來看，Nigel，您可以認為第一季約為 12.5%。全年息稅前利潤仍處於低位，約 15%。事實上，我們認為可能比這個高一點。因此與公司整體平均水平一致，但低於暖通空調領域的平均水平。這是息稅前利潤水準。您可能可以在這 2、3 點中添加幾個點來獲得 EBITDA。

And our next question comes from Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan Chase & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通公司的史蒂芬‧圖薩。

Just on that EBIT comment, that's EBITA, right, excluding the amortization when you say EBIT?

就息稅前利潤評論而言，這就是息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITA），對吧，當你說息稅前利潤時不包括攤銷？

Yes, that's right, Steve. We adjust out the intangible amortization and some of the step-ups as well.

是的，沒錯，史蒂夫。我們也調整了無形攤銷和一些增量。

Yes, you guys said, I think previously, you added a bunch to D&A versus the prior guidance. Is that just truing up some of the financials on Viessmann?

是的，你們說，我認為之前，你們在 D&A 中添加了一些內容，而不是之前的指導。這是否只是證實了菲斯曼的一些財務狀況？

Yes, Steve, you're right. In essence, at the time of the February guide, of course, we didn't have all the detail to provide the best accurate estimate of the DNA. And so inventory and backlog step-up was not yet fully included there. And also since then, we refined the difference between the intangibles and then the goodwill, and that impacts the amortization as well. So you can think of that being the new driver.

是的，史蒂夫，你是對的。當然，從本質上講，在二月指南發佈時，我們還沒有提供最準確的 DNA 估計的所有細節。因此，庫存和積壓訂單的增加尚未完全包含在內。從那時起，我們細化了無形資產和商譽之間的差異，這也影響了攤銷。所以你可以認為這是新的驅動程式。

Got it. And then sorry, just on resi, just to follow up on the 454 A2L. Did you guys -- I think -- you guys are like -- at least we had heard your amongst the earlier movers on that. You already have a product in the channel, which is congratulations on that. That's definitely ahead of some of your peers.

知道了。然後抱歉，只是在 resi 上，只是為了跟進 454 A2L。你們是不是——我想——你們就像——至少我們在這方面的早期推動者中聽到了你們的聲音。您的頻道中已經有一個產品，恭喜您。這絕對領先於一些同行。

Did you kind of -- have you been pivoting at all as far as evaluating the market and working the 410A product in there as the demand changes? Like how fluid is that situation? That's kind of the first question. And then just a very quick follow-up for Patrick. Can you just give us the price and inflation for the first quarter? And then just any updates on that for the year for the bridge?

隨著需求的變化，您是否一直在評估市場並在其中使用 410A 產品？這種情況有多不穩定？這是第一個問題。然後是帕特里克的快速跟進。您能給我們第一季的價格和通貨膨脹嗎？那麼今年這座橋有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. Let me -- yes, Steve, let me start on the A2L. Our strategy is to -- we did it with the SEER change. We're doing it with the A2L change, derisk everything, get way out in front. We don't want any technical producibility, capacity, any issues as we get into the end of this year. Our #1 priority is to support our customers to make this a seamless transition.

是的。讓我——是的，史蒂夫，讓我從 A2L 開始。我們的策略是——我們透過 SEER 變更做到了這一點。我們正在透過 A2L 變革來做到這一點，消除一切風險，取得領先地位。當我們進入今年年底時，我們不希望出現任何技術生產力、產能或任何問題。我們的首要任務是支持我們的客戶實現無縫過渡。

So we are getting way out in front, not only on shipping the product, but on training our dealers. We had 1,000 dealers -- over 1,000 dealers together last week. We had closer to 10,000 together for a discussion probably about 18 months ago. So we are getting all over in terms of the preparation.

因此，我們不僅在產品運輸方面，而且在經銷商培訓方面都處於領先地位。我們有 1,000 名經銷商——上週總共有超過 1,000 名經銷商。大約 18 個月前，我們有近 10,000 人一起進行了討論。所以我們的準備工作已經全部完成。

And I do think that -- as I mentioned, I think it will be less than 20% A2L this year, probably a bit of prebuy on 410, but I do think it will be higher than that 60% that I know others mentioned for next year.

我確實認為 - 正如我所提到的，我認為今年 A2L 的比例將低於 20%，可能是 410 上的預購，但我確實認為它會高於我知道明年其他人提到的 60%。

Okay. And then Steve, following up on your questions about price. Price for the quarter was about 2%. For the overall company, we expect that to be about the same for the full year. So about half of our organic growth price.

好的。然後史蒂夫，跟進你關於價格的問題。本季的價格約為 2%。對於整個公司來說，我們預計全年的情況大致相同。所以大約是我們有機成長價格的一半。

In terms of price and net productivity combined, that includes the headwinds of material inflation, for example, that combined was about $200 million in Q1, and we expect that to be about $600 million for the full year in our current guidance.

例如，就價格和淨生產力而言，包括物質通膨的不利因素，第一季的總金額約為 2 億美元，根據我們目前的指導，我們預計全年約為 6 億美元。

Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen。

I was wondering if -- just talking about 2025 in that bridge, is the growth algorithm still kind of north of 10% earnings growth off of the adjusted base? If you could just talk through kind of your '25 expectations, given the bridge that you provided on what the remainco is and the like? Just off of what basis, if you will?

我想知道——就在那座橋上談論 2025 年，成長演算法是否仍然高於調整後基數 10% 的獲利成長？考慮到您就剩餘股份等問題提供的橋樑，您是否可以談談您對 25 年的期望？如果你願意的話，只是基於什麼基礎？

Right. So if you look at Slide 23 of the deck that we posted, our core business this year is up 12% -- or in Q1 was up 12%. For the full year, we expect our core business, including the dilution from Viessmann in year 1, the growth to be 17%. And our value creation framework says that we'd like to grow our business double digits every year.

正確的。因此，如果你看我們發布的幻燈片 23，你會發現我們今年的核心業務成長了 12%，或者第一季成長了 12%。對於全年，我們預計我們的核心業務，包括第一年來自菲斯曼的稀釋，成長將達到 17%。我們的價值創造框架表明，我們希望每年實現兩位數的業務成長。

So management, I think, would be very disappointed if our core business would not grow at least double-digit EPS in 2025. And on top of that, as you can see on that slide, there are the additional levers, redeploying net proceeds from industrial fire for half a year. That's going to be net -- that's going to be debt reducs, (inaudible) for industrial and commercial fire. I mentioned earlier, run rate EBITDA of $250 million, you can assume a multiple on that and some tax leakage. That would be available for redeployment, including buybacks, plus free cash flow generated in 2024 and 2025 ex dividend, again, available for deployment, including buybacks. And so a long way of saying, we think there is significant earnings growth power available to us.

因此，我認為，如果我們的核心業務在2025 年無法實現至少兩位數的每股收益成長，管理層將會非常失望。槓桿，可以重新部署來自工業火災已持續半年。這將是淨額——這將是工業和商業火災的債務減少（聽不清楚）。我之前提到，EBITDA 運行率為 2.5 億美元，您可以假設其倍數和一些稅收洩漏。這將可用於重新部署，包括回購，加上 2024 年和 2025 年除息後產生的自由現金流，同樣可用於部署，包括回購。總而言之，我們認為我們擁有巨大的獲利成長能力。

And what would your opinion of free cash conversion in '25 be off of that approximately $3 number?

您對 25 年約 3 美元的免費現金兌換有何看法？

We -- I haven't provided the $3 number, but whatever the number is, we target about 100% of net income.

我們——我沒有提供 3 美元的數字，但無論數字是多少，我們的目標是 100% 左右的淨利潤。

And just a quick follow-up on resi. There's been a lot of chatter about repair versus replace and potential trading down. Have you seen any evidence of that? I know it's early in the cooling season, but any opinion on...

只是對 resi 的快速跟進。關於維修與更換以及潛在的降價交易的討論很多。你有看到任何證據嗎？我知道現在正處於冷卻季節的早期，但有什麼意見嗎...

Yes, sorry to interrupt. No, we have not seen any evidence of that. We ask that ourselves a lot, and we have not seen evidence of that.

是的，抱歉打擾。不，我們還沒有看到任何證據。我們常常這樣問自己，但我們還沒有看到這方面的證據。

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I wanted to come back to light commercial. Obviously, it's been a source of strength for a few years here, orders did take a step down in the first quarter. But you did talk about the light commercial being a profit outperformer for the year. Maybe just some detail on the expectations on some of those moving pieces.

我想回到輕廣告領域。顯然，這幾年來一直是這裡的力量源泉，但第一季的訂單確實有所下降。但您確實談到輕廣告今年的利潤表現優於大盤。也許只是對一些令人感動的作品的期望的一些細節。

Yes. Look, I mean, it's a question we get because it's been so strong for so long. So -- last year, we were up 35%. We knew we'd have a tough comp coming in into this year. But I think it's a very nice combination of share gains, the underlying verticals that have been strong, generally remaining strong, the team performing. And of course, we don't talk about it as much, but we'll have the same 454B dynamic here, where we see the same kind of base price and mix increase that we're mentioning for resi, we see for light commercial. So that 15% to 20% over 2 years.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，我們之所以提出這個問題，是因為它長期以來一直如此強烈。去年，我們成長了 35%。我們知道今年的比賽會很艱難。但我認為這是股票收益、一直強勁且整體保持強勁的潛在垂直行業以及團隊表現的一個非常好的組合。當然，我們不會談論太多，但我們在這裡將有相同的 454B 動態，我們看到與我們提到的 Resi 相同的基本價格和混合增長，我們看到輕型商業。從而在 2 年內增加 15% 至 20%。

There won't be the same kind of prebuy. There might be a little bit on the small rooftop units, but -- so you would expect to see an even higher mix next year for 454B, which gives you a tailwind as you go into light commercial next year. And these verticals continue to be strong. So we think it will be slightly better than down mid-single digits this year, given more than 20% in the first quarter.

不會有同類型的預購。小型屋頂單元可能會有一點，但是 - 所以您預計明年會看到 454B 的更高組合，這會給您明年進入輕型商業市場帶來順風。這些垂直領域繼續保持強勁勢頭。因此，鑑於第一季超過 20%，我們認為今年的情況將略好於個位數中位數的下降。

Okay. Great. And then just shifting over to container up 50%. I guess is the worst behind us here? What are you hearing from some of those customers? And then anything on sort of the sequential trends through the -- in the last couple of quarters?

好的。偉大的。然後轉向容器，漲幅達到 50%。我猜我們後面最糟糕的是？您從其中一些客戶那裡聽到了什麼？那麼過去幾季的連續趨勢有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, I do think the worst is behind us, Brett. I mean we were up significantly in the fourth quarter. We were up about 50% in the first quarter. I think for the full year, it's probably up in the 30% range.

是的，我確實認為最糟糕的時期已經過去了，布雷特。我的意思是我們在第四季大幅成長。第一季我們成長了約 50%。我認為全年漲幅可能在 30% 左右。

And then you look at -- the other thing that we've done, which is very important, is we've introduced a new digital platform for that space as well called Lynx, which instead of just being an equipment provider, we're now getting subscription-based recurring revenues. And we have 130,000 subscriptions for something that we just introduced a few years ago. So hats off to the team there as well. And that will help smooth some of the cycles in that business.

然後你看——我們所做的另一件事非常重要，我們為該領域引入了一個新的數位平台，也稱為 Lynx，它不僅僅是一個設備提供商，我們現在還獲得基於訂閱的經常性收入。我們幾年前剛推出的產品已有 13 萬名訂閱者。也向那裡的團隊致敬。這將有助於平滑該業務的一些週期。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Just a question on the buyback. You guys alluded that you have capacity to start the buyback in '24. How is it incorporated in your current outlook? Just trying to understand that? Or is that where the margin of safety comes for the guide?

只是關於回購的問題。你們提到你們有能力在 24 年開始回購。它是如何融入您當前的展望中的？只是想了解這一點？或者這是指南的安全邊際嗎？

Yes, Andrew, thank you for your question, and I'll provide some context on this. So since the acquisition, we paid down about $500 million in term loans in Q1. And the 3 exits that we have announced will yield about $5.5 billion in net proceeds. So that's our expectation. And what we communicated is that all of this will be used for deleveraging, although we may keep some as cash as it may be economically more attractive than just paying down some of the debt.

是的，安德魯，謝謝你的問題，我將提供一些相關背景資訊。因此，自收購以來，我們在第一季償還了約 5 億美元的定期貸款。我們宣布的 3 次退出將產生約 55 億美元的淨收益。這就是我們的期望。我們傳達的訊息是，所有這些都將用於去槓桿化，儘管我們可能會保留一些現金，因為這在經濟上可能比僅僅償還部分債務更具吸引力。

But excluding -- if I look at the buybacks for this year, we have not included them in our guide for the year. But given the timing of our free cash flow, generally, it would be second half weighted. And as you probably recall, our free cash flow tends to be very heavy in Q3 and in Q4. So not included in our guide. As we resume it in the second half of the year, there might be some benefit. I think the benefit will be much more meaningful in 2025 than it will be in 2024.

但排除——如果我看看今年的回購，我們沒有將它們納入今年的指南中。但考慮到我們自由現金流的時間，一般來說，它將是下半年加權的。您可能還記得，我們​​的自由現金流在第三季和第四季往往非常大。所以沒有包含在我們的指南中。當我們下半年恢復它時，可能會有一些好處。我認為 2025 年的好處將比 2024 年更有意義。

And just a follow-up on Viessmann. What's your ability if -- for whatever reason, second half orders do not pick up as you expected, what's your ability to accelerate restructuring at Viessmann? Because I guess you guys kept the outlook for restructuring flat versus last quarter. Are you gated or limited in any way what you -- on the timing what you can do in Germany? Are there levers on cost at Viessmann that you can still pull in '24?

這只是菲斯曼的後續行動。如果無論出於何種原因，下半年訂單沒有像您預期的那樣增加，您有什麼能力加速菲斯曼的重組？因為我猜你們對重組的前景與上季持平。您在德國的活動時間是否受到任何限製或限制？在菲斯曼，您在 24 年仍然可以利用成本槓桿嗎？

Yes. Andrew, I have to say I've been so proud of Thomas and the team working with the central apps folks at Carrier to be incredibly and appropriately aggressive on cost. And if you look at the actions that Thomas has taken, what's been very important for that -- for our 12,000 new colleagues at Viessmann that fully understand this is it has nothing to do with the combination with Carrier. It's all actions that business would have taken because of the overall market conditions.

是的。安德魯，我必須說，我為 Thomas 以及與 Carrier 的中央應用程式人員合作的團隊在成本方面令人難以置信且適當的積極性感到非常自豪。如果你看看湯瑪斯所採取的行動，你會發現其中非常重要的一點是，對於菲斯曼的 12,000 名新同事來說，他們完全明白這與與開利的合併無關。這些都是企業因整體市場狀況而採取的行動。

So they've been very aggressive on all elements of takeout of cost, not just on basic G&A, but they've been aggressive on materials, logistics costs, value engineering, which is part of the benefit and insourcing part of the benefit of coming together with Carrier. And they're going to continue to take cost.

因此，他們在成本支出的所有要素上都非常積極，不僅是在基本的一般管理費用上，而且他們在材料、物流成本、價值工程方面也非常積極，這是未來收益的一部分，也是未來收益的內包部分。他們將繼續付出成本。

So there's a lot of levers that, that business can and will pull to take costs out of the business. There are certain kind of natural limitations in the agreement that we had with them, but those are not things that are in any way going to affect the ability for that business to take the appropriate cost actions.

因此，企業可以而且將會利用許多槓桿來降低企業成本。我們與他們達成的協議存在某些自然限制，但這些不會以任何方式影響該企業採取適當成本行動的能力。

So when you talk about cost synergies, that excludes whatever actions, as you have alluded, Viessmann would have taken these actions, regardless given the market conditions? Is that the fair point that there's $200 million by year 3, we have, but at the same time, Viessmann can accelerate internal cost control given the market conditions? Is that the right way to think about it? Sorry.

因此，當您談論成本協同效應時，這排除了您所提到的任何行動，無論市場條件如何，菲斯曼都會採取這些行動？到第三年我們已經有 2 億美元了，但同時，鑑於市場條件，菲斯曼可以加速內部成本控制，這是公平的嗎？這是正確的思考方式嗎？對不起。

I think it's a fair description, Andrew. I -- look, I think cost synergies, we have a very specific definition we use. It's cost that's taken out because of the combination. So there's a bunch of examples of that where we both buy from the same supplier, and we have the ability to go renegotiate with those suppliers or the ability to get more work to certain suppliers.

我認為這是一個公平的描述，安德魯。我——看，我認為成本綜效，我們使用了一個非常具體的定義。由於組合而扣除的成本。因此，有許多例子表明，我們都從同一供應商購買產品，並且我們有能力與這些供應商重新談判，或有能力為某些供應商提供更多工作。

We have a whole lot of value engineering between Toshiba, Carrier, GWA and Viessmann. So there's things that cost takeout that we can do because we're now part of the same family. We see it with some of our factory optimization. So yes, there's cost takeout that they're doing on their own, and then there's cost synergies on top of that.

我們在東芝、開利、GWA 和菲斯曼之間進行了大量的價值工程。所以有些事情我們可以做，因為我們現在是同一個家庭的一部分。我們透過一些工廠優化看到了這一點。所以，是的，他們自己進行成本削減，除此之外還有成本綜效。

Yes, thank you. And just to close it out, I want to end by thanking our customers who always support us and our team who is doing a phenomenal job. So thank you also to our investors. And as always, Sam will be available all day for questions. Thank you, all.

是的，謝謝。最後，我想感謝一直支持我們的客戶以及我們出色工作的團隊。所以也感謝我們的投資人。像往常一樣，Sam 全天都可以回答問題。謝謝你們。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。