開利公司 (CARR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Michael Rednor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加開利公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁麥可‧雷德諾。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加開利公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是董事長兼執行長大衛·吉特林，以及財務長帕特里克·戈里斯。

Except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring costs and certain significant nonrecurring items. A reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast.

除另有說明外，本公司將就持續經營業績發表意見，不包括重組成本和某些重大非經常性項目。這些以及其他非GAAP財務指標的調節表可以在網路直播的附錄中找到。

We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

我們也提醒聽眾，本次演講包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述有風險和不確定性。Carrier 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格季度報告，提供了可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

接下來，我想把電話交給戴夫。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was an important year for Carrier. The short-cycle residential and light commercial markets softened more than we expected in the second half of the year. We made meaningful progress on our strategic priorities and reached major milestones, including growing our data center business to around $1 billion.

謝謝麥克，大家早安。 2025年對開利公司來說是重要的一年。今年下半年，短期住宅和輕型商業市場的疲軟程度超出了我們的預期。我們在策略重點方面取得了實質進展，並達到了重要的里程碑，包括將資料中心業務發展到約 10 億美元。

Notably, even with CSA residential down nearly 10% and light commercial down about 20%, total company organic sales were down about 1% as we continued to drive growth in our long cycle and aftermarket businesses.

值得注意的是，儘管 CSA 住宅銷售額下降了近 10%，輕型商業銷售額下降了約 20%，但由於我們繼續推動長週期和售後市場業務的成長，公司整體有機銷售額僅下降了約 1%。

We also reduced channel inventory and lowered overhead while continuing to invest in technology differentiation, salespeople, and technicians. Those actions position us for stronger incrementals when our short-cycle markets recover.

我們也減少了通路庫存，降低了營運成本，同時繼續投資於技術差異化、銷售人員和技術人員。這些舉措使我們能夠在短期市場復甦時獲得更強勁的成長。

We had our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in commercial HVAC, while continuing to gain share and increase margins. Aftermarket was also up double digits for the fifth consecutive year. We offset tariffs with aggressive cost and pricing actions drove strong material productivity and took decisive overhead cost actions. And as you'll see in our outlook, the cost actions that we execute into 2025 will deliver over $100 million of savings in 2026.

我們在商用暖通空調領域連續第五年實現了兩位數的成長，同時不斷擴大市場份額並提高利潤率。售後市場也連續第五年實現了兩位數的成長。我們透過積極的成本和定價措施抵消了關稅的影響，提高了材料生產率，並採取了果斷的間接成本控制措施。正如您將在我們的展望中看到的那樣，我們在 2025 年實施的成本控制措施將在 2026 年帶來超過 1 億美元的節省。

Finally, we distributed $3.7 billion to our shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

最後，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東分配了 37 億美元。

In terms of capital allocation, we remain focused on investing in the highest return opportunities, maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning cash to shareholders. We will continue to focus on outsized growth in products, aftermarket and system offerings, and you can see the progress we're making on all three growth vectors, starting with products on slide 4.

在資本配置方面，我們仍然專注於投資回報最高的項目，保持穩健的資產負債表，並向股東返還現金。我們將繼續專注於產品、售後市場和系統產品的超額成長，您可以看到我們在所有三個成長方向所取得的進展，首先是第 4 張投影片上的產品。

Our data center investments are delivering results with fourth quarter CSA data center orders up more than 5x. We are still in the early innings, and our expanded portfolio now addresses essentially all major data center chiller applications. Our share of water cooled chillers has increased 4x since spin, and with our recently introduced maglev bearing air cool chillers, we see meaningful share opportunity there as well. Key differentiators include quick restart, free cooling and leading efficiency at elevated ambient temperatures. We introduced our first CDU for liquid cooling in 2025 and plan additional higher-capacity CDUs up to 5 megawatts in 2026.

我們的資料中心投資正在取得成效，第四季 CSA 資料中心訂單成長超過 5 倍。我們仍處於起步階段，但我們擴展後的產品組合現在基本上涵蓋了所有主要的資料中心冷水機應用。自公司分拆以來，我們在水冷式冷水機領域的市佔率成長了 4 倍，而且隨著我們最近推出的磁浮軸承空冷式冷水機，我們也看到了在該領域獲得顯著市場份額的機會。主要區別在於快速重啟、自由冷卻以及在高溫環境下領先的效率。我們於 2025 年推出了首款液冷 CDU，並計劃於 2026 年推出容量高達 5 兆瓦的更高容量 CDU。

Over the past couple of years, we have expanded our commercial HVAC engineering lab and chiller manufacturing capacity globally and have added hundreds of technicians. These multiyear investments have positioned us to outgrow the commercial HVAC market as reflected in our 2026 outlook with double-digit revenue growth, including data centers up about 50%.

在過去的幾年裡，我們擴大了全球商業暖通空調工程實驗室和冷水機組製造能力，並增加了數百名技術人員。這些多年的投資使我們有能力超越商業暖通空調市場，正如我們在 2026 年的展望中所反映的那樣，收入將實現兩位數增長，其中數據中心增長約 50%。

Aftermarket also remains a good news story for us, as you can see on slide 5.

正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，售後市場對我們來說仍然是一個好消息。

Our playbook works, and we continue to improve upon it. Three years ago, we had 17,000 chillers connected. Today, it is over 70,000. Our attachment rate in CSA grew more than 3x last year and is now close to 60% and our global coverage, that is chillers covered by service agreements, is up to 110,000, including Toshiba. We estimate that 70% to 80% of our high complexity chillers are under service contracts.

我們的策略行之有效，而且我們會不斷改進。三年前，我們有 17,000 台冰水機組連接在一起。如今，這個數字已經超過7萬人。去年，我們在 CSA 的附加率增長了 3 倍多，現在接近 60%，我們的全球覆蓋範圍（即服務協議涵蓋的冷水機組）高達 110,000 台，其中包括東芝。我們估計，我們70%到80%的高複雜度冷水機組都簽訂了服務合約。

The area within our aftermarket business where we see the highest growth potential over the next five years is modifications and upgrades. Sales last year were up 20%. With a focused team, investments and strategy, we see great opportunities in cities globally.

在未來五年內，我們認為售後市場業務中最具成長潛力的領域是改裝和升級。去年銷售額成長了20%。憑藉著專注的團隊、投資和策略，我們看到了全球各大城市的巨大機會。

In 2026, we are well positioned for double-digit aftermarket growth for our fifth -- or excuse me, our sixth consecutive year.

到 2026 年，我們已做好充分準備，實現售後市場連續第五年（或更準確地說，是連續第六年）兩位數成長。

Turning to Systems on slide 6. Our HEMS offering in the United States is getting tremendous attention from hyperscalers and utilities, and it is not surprising given the magnitude of the impact that our solution can have on the grid. If our integrated heat pump battery solution where in every home and building that Carrier currently serves, we would free up nearly 15% of grid capacity during peak hours. It also weighs favorably versus alternatives in terms of time to market, cost of implementation and affordability to the consumer.

轉到第 6 張投影片上的「系統」部分。我們在美國推出的 HEMS 產品受到了超大規模企業和公用事業公司的極大關注，考慮到我們的解決方案對電網的巨大影響，這並不令人驚訝。如果開利目前服務的每一戶家庭和建築物都採用我們的整合式熱泵電池解決方案，那麼在用電高峰期，我們將釋放近 15% 的電網容量。與替代方案相比，它在上市時間、實施成本和消費者負擔能力方面也具有優勢。

Our Carrier Energy team's progress in 2025 was significant. Through field trials in Carrier employee homes, we have been demonstrating that we can consistently provide up to four hours of battery-powered heat pump operation during peak hours. We are planning market launch later this year.

我們Carrier Energy團隊在2025年取得了顯著進展。透過在開利員工家中進行的實地試驗，我們已經證明，在用電高峰期，我們可以持續提供長達四個小時的電池供電熱泵運作。我們計劃於今年稍後推出市場產品。

Likewise, in Europe, we have been working closely with our installers to offer differentiated HEM solutions. Our systems profi installers installers those qualified to sell and install complete solutions, including heat pump, battery, solar PV, domestic hot water, all connected through our digital home energy management system offering, drove their sales up double digits last year. We plan to double our number of qualified prove installers in 2026, driving strong growth for them and us.

同樣，在歐洲，我們也與安裝商緊密合作，提供差異化的HEM解決方案。我們的系統專家安裝人員，即那些有資格銷售和安裝完整解決方案（包括熱泵、電池、太陽能光伏、家用熱水器，所有這些都透過我們的數位家庭能源管理系統連接）的安裝人員，去年推動了他們的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長。我們計劃在 2026 年將合格的認證安裝人員數量翻一番，這將為他們和我們自身帶來強勁的成長。

Turning to slide 7. In our CST business, there is no better example of end-to-end solutions than what we're seeing in our container business. Four years ago, Lynx did not exist. Today, we have over 220,000 paid Lynx subscriptions with over 110,000 on containers, including 6 of the world's top 10 shipping lines. We also recently invested in Net Feasa, which provides enhanced wireless IoT connectivity on cargo ships.

翻到第7張投影片。在我們的 CST 業務中，沒有比我們在貨櫃業務中看到的更好的端到端解決方案的例子了。四年前，Lynx這個品牌還不存在。目前，我們擁有超過 22 萬個 Lynx 付費訂閱用戶，其中超過 11 萬個用於貨櫃運輸，包括全球十大航運公司中的 6 家。我們最近也投資了 Net Feasa，該公司為貨船提供增強的無線物聯網連接。

By combining advanced AI-driven reefer health algorithms in our Lynx applications with enhanced ship connectivity, we enable shipping customers to avoid manual checks on refrigerated units and to predict and avoid failures before they occur. This end-to-end solution is expected to help smooth the container cycles and provide meaningful recurring revenues while delivering differentiated customer value.

透過將 Lynx 應用程式中先進的 AI 驅動的冷藏箱健康演算法與增強的船舶連接性相結合，我們使航運客戶能夠避免對冷藏設備進行人工檢查，並在故障發生之前預測和避免故障。此端到端解決方案有望幫助平滑貨櫃週轉週期，並提供有意義的經常性收入，同時為客戶創造差異化價值。

Let me turn now to discussing some of our shorter-cycle businesses, starting with CSA resi on slide 8. Over the long term, residential remains a significant opportunity for Carrier. It is a large replacement-driven market with secular tailwinds in electrification and heat pumps and our leading brands channels and installed base are unmatched and position us for outsized earnings growth as demand normalizes. In this market, we estimate demand in a typical year to be around 9 million units. Between '20 and 2024, our industry averaged 9.7 million units for a cumulative overage, so to speak, of about 3.5 million units.

現在讓我來討論一下我們的一些週期較短的業務，首先是第 8 頁幻燈片上的 CSA resi。從長遠來看，住宅領域對開利來說仍然是一個重要的機會。這是一個以替換為主導的大型市場，電氣化和熱泵等長期利好因素，以及我們領先品牌的通路和裝機量，使我們在需求正常化後能夠實現超額的盈利增長。在這個市場中，我們估計正常年份的需求量約為 900 萬台。從 2020 年到 2024 年，我們產業的平均產量為 970 萬台，累計超額產量約 350 萬台。

Last year, we estimate our industry delivered about 7.5 million units. So we absorbed about 45% of that overage. We are assuming that we absorbed the balance in 2026. Our assumption for the year is essentially no change to the macro conditions that we exited last year with, little change to mortgage rates, consumer confidence or new and existing home sales. That would result in total industry units down 10% to 15%.

去年，我們估計我們產業的交付量約為 750 萬台。因此，我們吸收了約 45% 的超額費用。我們假設剩餘部分將在 2026 年消化完畢。我們對今年的假設是，宏觀經濟狀況與去年結束時基本沒有變化，抵押貸款利率、消費者信心或新房和二手房銷售也不會有太大變化。這將導致行業總產量下降 10% 至 15%。

With that industry assumption, our sales would be down high single digits as we benefit from the absence of destocking in the second half of 2026 compared to 2025 and combined with low single-digit price realization.

根據業界普遍的假設，由於 2026 年下半年沒有像 2025 年那樣出現去庫存現象，再加上價格實現幅度較小，我們的銷售額將出現接近兩位數的下降。

Turning to CSE Residential on slide 9. The good news in this market is that the transition from boilers to heat pumps is underway with heat pumps growing double digits as anticipated. The bad news is that total heating -- the total heating market has been in a cyclical downturn for the past few years. Like the Americas, the industry has been absorbing overage that we saw in the 2022, 2023 time frame. We expect continued softness in total heating units in 2026, resulting in expected flat sales with our growth initiatives being offset by lower industry volumes.

請看第 9 張投影片，了解 CSE Residential。這個市場的好消息是，從鍋爐到熱泵的過渡正在進行中，熱泵的成長率正如預期的那樣達到了兩位數。壞消息是，整體供暖市場在過去幾年一直處於週期性低迷狀態。與美洲一樣，該行業一直在吸收我們在 2022 年、2023 年期間看到的過剩產能。我們預計 2026 年暖氣設備總需求將持續疲軟，導致銷售額預計持平，我們的成長計畫將被產業銷售下降所抵消。

When unit volume stabilizes, we are well positioned to drive strong earnings growth given our strategic initiatives and the cost actions that we have taken in this segment.

當銷售趨於穩定時，鑑於我們在該領域採取的策略性舉措和成本控制措施，我們完全有能力推動強勁的獲利成長。

Turning to slide 10 for what this all means for our full year guidance. With respect to revenue growth, we expect that about 40% of our portfolio, commercial HVAC and aftermarket will continue to grow double digits. Expected continued softness in our higher-margin short-cycle businesses, especially CSA residential and light commercial is expected to largely offset that growth, taking the total to about 1% organic growth for the company.

接下來請看第 10 張投影片，了解這一切對我們全年業績指引的意義。就收入成長而言，我們預計我們投資組合中約 40% 的業務（即商用暖通空調和售後市場）將繼續保持兩位數成長。預計高利潤率的短週期業務（尤其是 CSA 住宅和輕型商業業務）持續疲軟將很大程度上抵消這一成長，使公司整體有機成長率約為 1%。

On the profit side, mix is expected to be a headwind somewhat offset by the cost actions that we took last year. Patrick will take you through the guidance in more detail, but we will continue to focus on controlling the controllables across all aspects of growth, cost and productivity.

在利潤方面，產品組合的變化預計將成為一個不利因素，但我們去年採取的成本控制措施將在一定程度上抵消這一影響。Patrick 將更詳細地為您講解指導內容，但我們將繼續專注於控製成長、成本和生產力各個方面的可控因素。

We are the best positioned company in our industry when our short-cycle businesses recover, which they surely will, and we are poised to see outsized grains when they, in fact, recover. We enter 2026 energized and focused on outgrowing our markets, delivering best-in-class solutions for our customers and driving productivity as we always do.

當我們的短期業務復甦時（而它們肯定會復甦），我們是業內地位最穩固的公司，而且我們已經做好準備，在穀物業務真正復甦時，我們將迎來超額的產量。我們充滿活力地邁入 2026 年，一如既往地專注於超越市場、為客戶提供一流的解決方案並提高生產力。

With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

接下來，我將把麥克風交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. I'll provide some color on our results and then move to our 2026 outlook. Please turn to slide 11. For the quarter, reported sales were $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit was $455 million and adjusted EPS was $0.34.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家早安。我將簡要介紹我們的研究結果，然後展望2026年的發展前景。請翻到第11頁。本季報告銷售額為 48 億美元，調整後營業利潤為 4.55 億美元，調整後每股收益為 0.34 美元。

As expected, the year-over-year decline in these financial metrics was largely due to much lower volumes in our higher-margin CSA residential and light commercial businesses, leading to an overall 9% decline in organic growth, partially offset by a 3% tailwind from foreign currency translation. Total company orders were up over 15% in the quarter, driven by strength in CSA commercial, underscoring continued strong demand for our products in this market.

正如預期的那樣，這些財務指標同比下降主要是由於我們利潤率較高的 CSA 住宅和輕型商業業務的銷量大幅下降，導致有機增長整體下降 9%，部分被外匯折算帶來的 3% 的利好所抵消。本季公司總訂單量成長超過 15%，主要得益於 CSA 商業領域的強勁表現，凸顯了該市場對我們產品的持續強勁需求。

Adjusted operating profit was down 33%, mainly reflecting lower organic sales and the unfavorable business mix I just referred to as well as much lower manufacturing output, partially offset by strong productivity. The adjusted EPS decline mainly reflects lower adjusted operating profit, a lower share count and somewhat higher interest expense and tax rate. We have included the year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on slide 21.

調整後的營業利潤下降了 33%，主要反映了有機銷售下降、我剛才提到的不利業務組合以及製造業產量大幅下降，但部分被強勁的生產力所抵消。調整後的每股盈餘下降主要反映了調整後的營業利潤下降、股份數量減少以及利息支出和稅率略有上升。我們在附錄第 21 頁投影片中加入了同比調整後的 EPS 過渡資料。

Free cash flow in the fourth quarter of about $900 million reflected a large reduction in inventories and accounts receivable and full year free cash flow of about $2.1 billion was in line with expectations. As to full year results, you can see that our organic sales were down about 1% due to weakness in our shorter cycle businesses, which represent over 50% of our portfolio. Very strong growth in global commercial HVAC up 14%, helped mitigate the short-cycle businesses sales decline.

第四季自由現金流約 9 億美元，反映庫存和應收帳款大幅減少；全年自由現金流約 21 億美元，符合預期。從全年業績來看，由於週期較短的業務疲軟（這些業務占我們投資組合的 50% 以上），我們的有機銷售額下降了約 1%。全球商用暖通空調業務強勁成長 14%，有助於緩解短期業務銷售下滑的影響。

Moving on to the segments, starting with CSA on slide 12. This segment had a very difficult quarter with organic sales down 17%. And Commercial delivered another strong quarter with sales up 12%, but this was more than offset by lower resi and light commercial sales. Resi sales were down close to 40% and with volume down over 40%, offset by regulatory mix and price. Light commercial sales declined 20%.

接下來是各個部分，從第 12 張投影片上的 CSA 開始。該業務部門本季表現非常艱難，有機銷售額下降了 17%。商業房地產業務又迎來了一個強勁的季度，銷售額增長了 12%，但住宅和輕型商業房地產銷售額的下降抵消了這一增長。住宅銷售額下降了近 40%，銷量下降了 40% 以上，但監管政策和價格因素抵消了部分影響。輕型商用車銷量下降了20%。

Segment operating margin was just under 9% and a decline of about 10 points versus the prior year, reflecting the impact of lower sales and significant under-absorption in our resi manufacturing facilities, which had less than half the output compared to Q4 of last year. At year-end, field inventories for resi were down roughly 30% year-over-year, in line with our expectations and we believe that field destocking is now substantially behind us. Similarly, light commercial distributor inventories were down 25% year-over-year. For the full year, CSA Commercial had another excellent year with sales up over 25%, offset by resi down 9% and light commercial, down 20%.

分部營業利潤率略低於 9%，比前一年下降了約 10 個百分點，反映出銷售額下降以及我們住宅製造工廠的產能嚴重不足（與去年第四季相比，產量不到一半）的影響。截至年底，住宅用地庫存年減約 30%，符合我們的預期，我們認為現場去庫存工作現在基本上已經完成。同樣，輕型商用經銷商的庫存年減了 25%。全年來看，CSA Commercial 又取得了優異的成績，銷售額成長超過 25%，但住宅銷售額下降 9%，輕型商業銷售額下降 20%，抵消了部分成長。

Moving to the CSE segment on slide 13. Organic sales were down 2%, with commercial up mid-single digits, offset by mid-single-digit declines in resi like commercial. The residential heating market continues to be challenging in this region, particularly in Germany, which is our largest market. The transition to electrification and heat pumps is happening as reflected by growth in heat pump sales and a decline in boiler sales. Segment operating profit and margin were both up year-over-year on lower organic sales, reflecting the impact of cost actions.

接下來進入第 13 張投影片的 CSE 部分。有機銷售額下降了 2%，商業銷售額增長了中等個位數，但被住宅銷售額（與商業銷售額一樣）的中等個位數下降所抵消。該地區的住宅供暖市場依然充滿挑戰，尤其是在我們最大的市場德國。電氣化和熱泵的轉型正在發生，熱泵銷售成長和鍋爐銷售下降就反映了這一點。儘管有機銷售額下降，但分部營業利潤和利潤率均同比增長，這反映了成本控制措施的影響。

Turning to Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, on slide 14. Strength in India and Australia was more than offset by ongoing weakness in resi and light commercial in China, leading to an overall 9% sales decline. Overall sales in China were down about 20%, with resi and light commercial with resi and light commercial down about 30%, where we intentionally reduced distributor inventory during the quarter while commercially China was down mid-single digits. Segment operating margin of about 12% was up 100 basis points, primarily driven by strong productivity, offset by the impacts of lower sales.

請看第 14 頁關於亞太氣候解決方案的內容。印度和澳洲市場的強勁成長被中國住宅和輕型商用市場的持續疲軟所抵消，導致整體銷售下降了 9%。中國整體銷售額下降約 20%，其中住宅和輕型商用銷售額下降約 30%，我們在本季度有意減少了分銷商庫存，而中國商業銷售額下降了個位數中段。分部營業利潤率約為 12%，成長了 100 個基點，主要得益於強勁的生產效率，但卻被銷售額下降的影響所抵銷。

Moving to Transportation on slide 15. This segment had a strong quarter with 10% organic sales growth, driven by continued exceptional growth in container. Global Truck and trailer was flat in the quarter with growth in North America offset by weakness in Europe and Asia. Segment operating margins expanded by 30 basis points year-over-year primarily driven by strong productivity, partially offset by business mix.

第 15 頁轉到交通運輸部分。該業務類股本季表現強勁，有機銷售額成長 10%，主要得益於貨櫃業務的持續優異成長。本季全球卡車和拖車市場整體持平，北美市場的成長被歐洲和亞洲市場的疲軟所抵消。分部營業利益率年增 30 個基點，主要得益於生產效率的強勁提升，但部分被業務組合所抵銷。

Turning to Q4 orders on slide 16. Total company orders were up 16% for the quarter, with strength driven by commercial HVAC globally, which was up over 45% and particularly in CSA, where commercial orders increased 80%, reflecting some large data center wins. Applied orders within CSA commercial more than tripled compared to last year. Light commercial orders were up 70% with resi orders about flat. As you can see on the slide, orders were flat to up in every segment.

接下來請看第 16 頁的第四季訂單狀況。本季公司總訂單量成長了 16%，其中全球商用 HVAC 訂單量成長超過 45%，尤其是在 CSA 地區，商用訂單量成長了 80%，這反映出一些大型資料中心訂單的成功下單。CSA商業領域的申請訂單量比去年增加了三倍多。輕型商用訂單增加了70%，而住宅訂單基本上持平。從投影片可以看出，各細分市場的訂單量均持平或有所成長。

Moving on to slide 17 and shifting to 2026 organic sales guidance. We expect flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth and reported sales of approximately $22 billion. This includes a roughly $350 million year-over-year revenue headwind from the exit of Riello, mainly reported in the CSE segment. We announced the sale in December, and our guide assumes the transaction closes at the end of the first quarter. Also, as Dave mentioned earlier, our outlook reflects continued double-digit growth in commercial and aftermarket globally, offset by continued expected softness in our shorter cycle businesses.

接下來請看第 17 張投影片，了解 2026 年有機銷售預測。我們預計有機成長將持平或略低於中等個位數，報告銷售額約為 220 億美元。這其中包括 Riello 退出後造成的約 3.5 億美元的同比收入逆風，主要體現在 CSE 板塊。我們在 12 月宣布了這筆出售交易，我們的預測是交易將在第一季末完成。此外，正如戴夫之前提到的，我們的展望反映了全球商業和售後市場持續兩位數成長，但短期業務預計仍將持續疲軟。

In Commercial HVAC globally, we expect the first half to be up low to mid-single digits and the second half up mid-teens, reflecting comps and customer delivery timing. This back half acceleration reflects conversion of data center wins and delivery of our broader commercial backlog. By segment, we expect CSA and CSE to be up low single digits, while AME and CST are expected to be about flat.

在全球商業暖通空調領域，我們預計上半年將實現個位數低至中段的成長，下半年將實現十幾個百分點的成長，這反映了同業比較和客戶交付時間的變化。下半年的加速成長反映了資料中心專案的轉換以及我們更廣泛的商業積壓訂單的交付。按細分市場來看，我們預計 CSA 和 CSE 將實現個位數低成長，而 AME 和 CST 預計將基本持平。

Within CSA Residential, we expect a very difficult first half followed by growth in the second half as we benefit from the absence of destocking. CSA Commercial is expected to remain strong and as I just mentioned, accelerating in the second half as we deliver more of our data center wins.

在 CSA Residential 方面，我們預計上半年將非常艱難，但下半年將實現成長，因為我們將受益於沒有去庫存。CSA Commercial 預計將保持強勁勢頭，正如我剛才提到的，隨著我們贏得更多資料中心項目，下半年將加速成長。

Within CSE, our outlook for a flat RLC business largely reflects expected continued overall heating market weakness. Within CS AME, expected declines in China are offset by growth in the rest of the segment. And in Transportation, declines in container as 2025 was a record year, are expected to be offset by modest growth in our global truck and trailer business as well as Sensitech.

在CSE內部，我們對RLC業務持平的預期主要反映了預期整體暖氣市場將持續疲軟。在CS AME領域，中國市場的預期下滑被其他地區的成長所抵消。在運輸方面，儘管 2025 年是創紀錄的一年，但貨櫃業務的下降預計將被我們全球卡車和拖車業務以及 Sensitech 的適度增長所抵消。

Moving on to slide 18, profit and guidance. Profit and cash guidance. Total company adjusted operating profit is expected to be about $3.4 billion. The benefit of modest organic growth and productivity, including prior year overhead cost actions are partially offset by unfavorable business mix, given high single-digit declines in CSA resi and light commercial and investments. We expect free cash flow to be approximately $2 billion, which will be second half weighted, reflecting our normal seasonality.

接下來是第 18 張投影片，獲利和業績指引。獲利和現金流預測。公司調整後營業利潤總額預計約34億美元。適度的有機成長和生產力提升（包括上一年的間接成本控制措施）的好處，被不利的業務組合部分抵消，因為 CSA 住宅和輕型商業以及投資均出現了高個位數的下降。我們預期自由現金流約為 20 億美元，其中下半年佔比較高，反映了我們正常的季節性波動。

Finally, we intend to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares.

最後，我們計劃回購價值約 15 億美元的股票。

Moving to slide 19. We expect adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, up high single digits versus 2025. Adjusted EPS growth includes about $0.15 from increased operating profit, as I just outlined as well as tailwinds from a lower tax rate and a lower share count, which are partially offset by higher net interest expense NCI and the exit of Riello. As usual, additional guide items are in the appendix on slide 23, and our guide assumes no change to the macro, including the current tariff environment.

切換到第19張投影片。我們預計調整後每股收益約為 2.80 美元，比 2025 年實現高個位數成長。調整後的每股盈餘成長包括約 0.15 美元來自營業利潤的成長（正如我剛才概述的那樣），以及較低的稅率和較低的股份數量帶來的利好，但這些利好被較高的淨利息支出 NCI 和 Riello 的退出部分抵消。與往常一樣，其他指導項目在第 23 頁的附錄中，我們的指南假設宏觀經濟環境（包括當前的關稅環境）沒有變化。

Finally, let me provide some additional color on the first quarter. As we've communicated previously, CSA resi faces a very tough compare. We anticipate total company Q1 revenues to be about $5 billion, with organic revenue down high single digits, including CSA resi down over 20%. We expect Q1 company operating margin to be about 10%, largely reflecting the sales and manufacturing volume pressure in our higher-margin short-cycle businesses. Adjusted EPS is expected to be about 0.50, which includes the benefit of about a 0% effective tax rate due to a discrete tax item in the first quarter.

最後，讓我再補充一些關於第一季的情況。正如我們之前所溝通的，CSA resi 面臨著非常嚴峻的比較。我們預計公司第一季總營收約為 50 億美元，其中有機收入將下降接近兩位數，包括 CSA resi 下降超過 20%。我們預計公司第一季營業利潤率約為 10%，這主要反映了我們高利潤率、短週期業務的銷售和生產量壓力。調整後每股盈餘預計約為 0.50，其中包括第一季一項單獨的稅收項目帶來的約 0% 的實際稅率。

Free cash flow is expected to be a use of a few hundred million dollars in line with our normal operating cadence. While we expect sales and EPS to be pretty well balanced between the first and second half of the year in absolute terms, the year-on-year growth in sales and EPS will obviously be second half weighted. Overall, we will continue to drive operational excellence throughout our businesses as we return to organic growth and margin expansion and remain focused on executing in 2026.

預計自由現金流將按照我們正常的營運節奏使用數億美元。雖然我們預計今年上半年和下半年的銷售額和每股盈餘在絕對值上將保持相當平衡，但銷售額和每股盈餘的同比成長顯然會以以下半年為主導。總體而言，我們將繼續推動各項業務的卓越運營，恢復內生成長和利潤率擴張，並繼續專注於在 2026 年實現目標。

With that, I would like to ask the operator to open it up for questions.

因此，我想請接線生開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Nigel Coe, Wolfe.

（操作說明）Nigel Coe，Wolfe。

What a year. Thanks for all the details. I did want to maybe Patrick dig a little bit deeper into the mix? And can you just maybe talk about the CFA margins? And it looks to me if I just I bought the numbers.

真是難忘的一年。謝謝你提供的所有細節。我確實希望帕特里克能更深入地探討這個問題？能否談談CFA考試的利潤率？在我看來，我好像只是買了這些數字。

It looks like maybe closer to 10%, maybe low double-digit margins in CSA. And number one, is that correct? And secondly, maybe just run through some of the drivers of that. The fixed cost absorption headwinds that you're facing any raw material impacts? Just what's driving that margin? And maybe the recovery path from there?

看起來可能接近 10%，CSA 的利潤率可能只有兩位數。首先，這樣說對嗎？其次，或許可以梳理一下其中的一些驅動因素。固定成本吸收方面的不利因素，以及原料方面受到的影響？究竟是什麼因素導致了這種利潤率上升？或許接下來的恢復路徑會是怎麼樣的呢？

Yes. There's a lot there. I'll start with CSA expected margins in Q1. We expect them to be close to about 15% in Q1. And from an overall company point of view, the way you can think about Q1 is Q1 actually looks very similar to Q4 of 2025, but with a bit of higher sales at about $5 billion and about 1 point higher of an operating margin point of view.

是的。那裡有很多東西。我先從CSA第一季的預期利潤率說起。我們預計第一季這一比例將接近 15%。從公司整體角度來看，你可以這樣理解第一季：第一季實際上與 2025 年第四季非常相似，但銷售額略高，約為 50 億美元，營業利潤率也高出約 1 個百分點。

In Q4, our resi sales were down about 40%, and we expect resi sales in Q1 in the Americas to be down about 20% to 25%. And so that explains a little bit of the uptick in margin in Q1. And then in Q1, because of the 0% effective tax rate, there is about a $0.10 benefit versus Q4. So about $0.15 improvement, $0.05 of that is better CSA performance, $0.10 of that is a lower tax rate.

第四季度，我們的住宅銷售額下降了約 40%，我們預計第一季美洲地區的住宅銷售額將下降約 20% 至 25%。所以，這在一定程度上解釋了第一季利潤率的成長。然後，由於第一季實際稅率為 0%，與第四季度相比，大約有 0.10 美元的收益。因此，大約能提高 0.15 美元，其中 0.05 美元來自更好的 CSA 性能，0.10 美元來自更低的稅率。

Okay. Just the 10% overall operating margins were through me off there. So maybe just talk about the other segments, other downside drivers in the other segments?

好的。光是10%的整體營業利潤率就讓我大吃一驚。那麼或許可以談談其他細分市場，以及其他細分市場中的其他不利因素？

Yes. If I go through the other segments, the Transportation segment is expected to have similar margins to the prior year, about 14% and Asia had very strong margins in the first quarter of '25. We think the margins will be similar to what we've seen in the fourth quarter of '25, so about the 10%, 11% range. In Europe, we think that the margins will be similar in Q1 as they were in Q4. So generally similar margins as to what we've seen in our businesses in the fourth quarter of the year.

是的。如果我查看其他業務板塊，預計運輸板塊的利潤率與上年相近，約為 14%，而亞洲業務板塊在 2025 年第一季的利潤率非常強勁。我們認為利潤率將與 2025 年第四季的情況類似，大約在 10% 到 11% 之間。我們認為，歐洲第一季的利潤率將與第四季相似。因此，總體而言，利潤率與我們今年第四季業務的利潤率相似。

The Americas a little bit less of a headwind of resi.

美洲受到的阻力相對較小。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe I just wanted to understand a little bit more of that full year guidance for the CSA residential business. Maybe help us understand what you're seeing in the market on pricing and how you see industry penciling on the price front. And maybe help us clarify how much volume fair gain or outperformance you're expecting this year relative to that double digit, I think, still in market decline?

我可能只是想更深入地了解CSA住宅業務的全年指南。或許您可以幫我們了解一下您目前在市場定價方面觀察到的情況，以及您認為該行業在價格方面會如何運作。或許您還能幫我們澄清一下，相對於目前仍在下跌的市場（我認為是兩位數），您預計今年的交易量公平收益或超額收益會是多少？

Yes. Julian, let me kind of walk you through how we came up with our forecast and guidance for this year. So we're assuming at the highest level that industry conditions are the same as last year. So no improvement on interest rates, consumer confidence, newer existing home sales. We assume that the second half of '26 industry units are the same as the second half of 2025.

是的。朱利安，讓我來給你簡單介紹一下我們是如何得出今年的預測和指導意見的。因此，我們從最高層面假設產業狀況與去年相同。因此，利率、消費者信心和新舊房屋銷售方面均未出現改善。我們假設 2026 年下半年的行業單位數量與 2025 年下半年相同。

So on a two-year stack, that would mean a 30% decline in industry units, which is what we assume for the first half of 2026. So all the results there is that in the first half of this year, industry units would be down year-over-year by 20% to 25%. And in the second half, industry units would be flat to the second half of last year. So the full year would be down industry units down 10% to 15%.

因此，以兩年為週期計算，這意味著行業銷售將下降 30%，這也是我們對 2026 年上半年的假設。因此，所有結果都表明，今年上半年，行業銷售量將年減 20% 至 25%。下半年，業界銷售將與去年下半年持平。因此，全年行業銷量將下降 10% 至 15%。

Now Julian, what it means for us is that we believe that the distributor inventory destocking that occurred in the second half of last year is substantially behind us. So therefore, we think that in the first half of this year, we'll be down 20%, 25%, consistent with movement. And in the second half, sales will be up. Our sales will be up 10% given the absence of last year's second half destocking. So a bit complicated.

朱利安，這對我們來說意味著，我們認為去年下半年發生的經銷商庫存去庫存現象基本上已經過去了。因此，我們認為今年上半年我們將下降 20% 到 25%，與市場走勢一致。下半年，銷售量將會上升。由於去年下半年沒有進行去庫存，我們的銷售額將成長10%。所以有點複雜。

But what that all means is the net result of all of this is that we expect our sales and our volume to be down high single digits year-over-year with our sales, including about a low single-digit benefit from pricing.

但這一切的最終結果是，我們預期銷售額和銷售量將年減接近兩位數，其中價格因素帶來的收益約為接近兩位數。

That's super helpful. Maybe my second question with a different topic around CSE you had this dynamic in 2025 where decent heat pump growth offset by a boiler price and mix headwind? Just wondered what you're dialing in for that CSE RLC market for the year ahead and how you see your own internal dynamics vis-a-vis heat pump and boilers playing out?

這太有幫助了。也許我的第二個問題是關於CSE的另一個話題，您認為2025年會出現這樣的情況：熱泵的良好增長被鍋爐價格和產品組合的不利因素所抵消？我想知道您對未來一年CSE RLC市場的預期是什麼，以及您如何看待貴公司內部在熱泵和鍋爐方面的動態？

Well, look, I think the mix up is essentially playing out as we thought. So the issue is that what we're predicting for this year for 2026 is that the industry overall in Europe will be down mid to high single digits. Now we guided to flat because we do get the benefit of mix up, heat pumps up double digits, boilers down low to mid-single digits. We'll see aftermarket up double digits, which drops through at a point or two. And then we have our growth initiatives and our revenue synergies, which are frankly playing out well.

嗯，你看，我認為這場混亂基本上正如我們所預想的那樣發生了。因此，我們預測到 2026 年，歐洲整個產業的成長率將達到個位數中高段。現在我們採用平熱方式，因為我們確實能從混合加熱中獲益，熱泵溫度升至兩位數，鍋爐溫度降至個位數左右。我們將看到售後市場出現兩位數的成長，但隨後將回落一兩個百分點。此外，我們還有成長計畫和收入綜效，坦白說，這些計畫和效應目前進展順利。

The big issue that we've been having, frankly, is in Germany, where we're, of course, overweighted. So remember, we were thinking that the German market would go from something like 715,000 to 660,000, then we thought 640,000 and it ended up around 600,000.

坦白說，我們遇到的最大問題出在德國，我們在那裡的資產當然是超支了。所以請記住，我們當時認為德國市場會從大約 715,000 台下降到 66 萬台，然後我們認為會下降到 64 萬台，最終下降到 60 萬台左右。

And -- if you look over historically, the German market is about 800,000. So just like in the US, we do think there will be a reversion to the mean. We just don't think it happens this year given some of the continued ambiguity and uncertainty around some of the heating laws in Germany.

而且——從歷史數據來看，德國市場規模約 80 萬。所以就像在美國一樣，我們認為最終會回歸均值。鑑於德國一些供暖法規仍然存在一些模糊性和不確定性，我們認為今年不太可能發生這種情況。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

Scott Davis，Melius Research。

I'm looking at slide 8. I'm just trying to figure out how far below normal do you think channel inventories are in CSA resi?

我正在看第8張投影片。我只是想弄清楚你認為CSA住宅區的通路庫存比正常水平低多少？

Yes, Scott. We -- as we sit here today, we ended January versus January of last year, down about 32%. So we did go to great lengths with our channel partners to end at the field inventory levels that we had said. And that's putting us at like 2018 type levels. So the good news is that the field inventory that we targeted to get down, we got down, and we've continued to take it down here in January.

是的，斯科特。截至目前，我們1月份的業績與去年1月份相比下降了約32%。因此，我們與通路合作夥伴進行了大量的溝通，最終達到了我們之前所說的現場庫存水準。這樣一來，我們的水準就回到了 2018 年的水準。好消息是，我們設定的要減少的田間庫存已經減少，而且我們在 1 月繼續減少了庫存。

Okay. Helpful. And moving to more fun stuff. Data center is obviously hugely helpful here. But I don't know how far after booking orders, but when you think about the $1 billion revenue numbers that you put up, 60% of orders implies $1.6 billion for 26%.

好的。很有幫助。接下來是更有趣的內容。資料中心在這裡顯然發揮了巨大的作用。但我不知道下單後多久才能實現，但如果你想想你提出的 10 億美元的收入數字，60% 的訂單意味著 26% 的收入為 16 億美元。

Is that somewhere in the ballpark? And perhaps there could be some orders in '27 and stuff, I'm sure it's not perfect, but I'm just trying to get a sense of that, how that order flows through revenues in '26?

這個範圍差不多嗎？或許 2027 年會有一些訂單之類的，我確信這並不完美，但我只是想了解一下，這些訂單是如何在 2026 年轉化為收入的？

Yes, Scott, that's about right. What we're guiding is the $1.5 billion for this year. So you're in the ballpark. So we saw great orders last year. I mean, phenomenal orders in 4Q.

是的，斯科特，差不多就是這樣。我們今年的目標金額是 15 億美元。所以你的估計大致正確。所以去年我們的訂單量非常大。我的意思是，第四季的訂單量非常驚人。

January has been good. So we feel very well positioned. Now the reality is that we have a lot more in 3Q and 4Q, we would love to see a little bit more pulled in. But right now, that's when the customers that we've had great wins with are looking for the deliveries, but we feel really good about data centers for this year.

一月過得還不錯。因此，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的地位。但現在的現實情況是，我們在第三季和第四季還有更多的事情要做，我們希望看到更多的事情能夠得到解決。但目前，那些與我們合作非常成功的客戶正在等待交付，但我們對今年的資料中心市場充滿信心。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛集團。

Dave, can we just talk about the inventory dynamics just a little further. So clearly, you saw a pretty big reduction in your inventories Q-on-Q. I think it was down 17%, but the inventory levels were up year-over-year, about 8%. And so is that a function of just building inventories for the parts of your business that are growing? Just give us any more detail on that dynamic?

戴夫，我們能再詳細談談庫存動態嗎？顯然，你們的庫存環比大幅下降。我認為下降了 17%，但庫存水準比去年同期上升了約 8%。所以，這僅僅是為公司不斷成長的業務部門建立庫存的功能嗎？請您詳細解釋一下這種動態變化？

Joe, Patrick here. You may recall that we decided last year to keep our US resin manufacturing facilities running at minimal levels because it was more economical than selling them down for several months and then having a cold start. As a result, there is a couple of hundred million more inventory on our books at the end of the year than we otherwise would. And our current guide assumes that, that gets liquidated through the year. Quarter-over-quarter inventory has actually dropped.

喬，我是派崔克。您可能還記得，去年我們決定讓美國樹脂製造工廠以最低水平運轉，因為這比停產幾個月後再冷啟動要經濟得多。因此，到年底，我們的帳面庫存比正常情況下多了數億。我們目前的指引假設，這些資金會在一年內清算完畢。季度環比庫存實際上有所下降。

And then one last question. I know we were being a dead horse here on the resi side. But this like 6.5 million unit industry average, I mean, assuming whatever you want to assume for new housing starts, call it somewhere in the 1 million, 1.5 million zone, really kind of assumes a replacement rate that's like north of 20 years for this year. It just seems -- it seems conservative at first blush. Just any thoughts around if you go back even further, Dave, and you take a look at where the industry was even before that 2020 time frame, like do you really think that for the year, you're going to need to flush out this much demand in order to get back to equilibrium or just trying to be conservative to start the year?

最後一個問題。我知道我們在住宅方面一直毫無進展。但這個相當於 650 萬套住房的行業平均水平，我的意思是，假設你對新房開工量做出任何假設，比如說在 100 萬到 150 萬套之間，實際上就相當於假設今年的房屋更換週期超過 20 年。乍一看，它似乎很保守。Dave，如果你把時間線再往前推，看看 2020 年之前的產業狀況，你覺得今年真的需要釋放這麼多需求才能恢復平衡嗎？還是應該在年初採取保守的做法？

Joe, what we start with are some of those bigger picture analysis, the average with new home construction of 99.7% and 3.5 overage last year, 7.5%. So we use that for triangulation. Then we go towards what we're seeing with boots on the ground in the marketplace. And we're seeing that what we ended last year, a lot of those macros, we did not assume that we wake up on January 1 and they'd all be suddenly better and different. So that's why we did the analysis that I kind of took Julian through of what we assumed in the second half we just assumed for the second half of this year because you know it is a seasonal business.

喬，我們首先來看一些更宏觀的分析，新房屋建設的平均為 99.7%，去年超額完成 3.5%，達到 7.5%。所以我們就用它來進行三角測量。然後，我們將目光轉向我們在市場實地考察的情況。我們看到，去年年底的許多宏觀經濟指標，我們並沒有假設到了 1 月 1 日醒來後，它們都會突然變得更好、更不一樣。所以，這就是我們進行分析的原因，我向朱利安解釋了我們對今年下半年的假設，因為你知道，這是一個季節性產業。

We can't assume something for the second half and apply those volumes to the first half. So we tried to be as pure as we could about the analysis that we applied and then we applied that two-year stack to '24. So look, we've guided to down high single digits for us, the market down 10% to 15%. And if things play out exactly as they did in the second half, that's about where we would end up this year. Do we hope it's better?Of course, but that's how we're planning.

我們不能假設後半段的情況，然後將這些情況應用到前半段。因此，我們努力做到盡可能純粹地應用分析方法，然後將這兩年的分析結果應用到 2024 年。所以你看，我們預期股價將下跌接近兩位數，而市場下跌了 10% 到 15%。如果下半季的情況完全一樣，那麼我們今年的最終成績大概也會是這樣。我們希望情況會好轉嗎？當然，這是我們的計劃。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通公司

Just on the resi side, I haven't done the math, but what do you think for the -- like, for the year now, like movement ended at in the channel? And what are you assuming movement is for next year?

就住宅方面而言，我還沒有計算過，但你認為——比如，就今年而言，走勢在通道中結束了嗎？你認為明年的市場走勢會如何？

Mike help me with what, movement was in (multiple speakers).

麥克，幫我解決什麼問題？動作是怎麼回事？（多位發言者）

Like sellout, sellout. Sell out, sorry, sell out.

就像出賣靈魂一樣。售罄，抱歉，售罄了。

Steve, movement was down about 30% in Q4. .

史蒂夫，第四季銷量下降了約 30%。。

Okay. So that's the sell-out number. Okay. And then what are you guys assuming for inflation in total company price? And are you -- how are you marking the commodities? Are you marking them like to market today or year-end or maybe just some color on the inflation side.

好的。這就是售罄的數量。好的。那麼，你們對公司總價格的通貨膨脹率有何假設？你們是如何為商品定價的？您是按今天的市場行情、年底行情還是僅考慮通膨因素來定價？

Steve, in terms of pricing, Dave mentioned about low single digits, so give or take, close to 1 point for the total company. In terms of commodities, we block on a rolling four quarters. And today -- as of today, we have about a $60 million headwind related to copper, steel and aluminum headwind for this year, and that is net of our blocking position. And that headwind is about equal across the 4 quarters. And we're about 50% -- a little over 50% block for the full year.

史蒂夫，關於定價，戴夫提到過個位數，所以上下浮動，整個公司大約會漲 1 個百分點。就大宗商品而言，我們按四個季度滾動進行封鎖。截至目前，我們今年面臨約 6,000 萬美元與銅、鋼和鋁相關的逆風，這還不包括我們的阻擊地位。而且這股逆風在四個季度中大致相同。我們已經完成了大約 50%——全年完成率略高於 50%。

Okay. And the 1% is in resi as well? Or is resi a little higher than 1%?

好的。那1%也包括住宅用戶嗎？或者說殘留率略高於 1%？

Low single digits, so in that range.

較低的個位數，就在這個範圍內。

In that range. Steve, we announced a price increase of up to, I think, five or six effective in March. And we think we'll realize in that low single-digit range.

在這個範圍內。史蒂夫，我們宣布了價格上漲計劃，我認為從三月開始，漲幅將達到五到六個百分點。我們認為最終結果會落在個位數低點。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安德魯‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Dave, you obviously talked about the $100 million of cost benefits expected in '26 that you actioned in '25. Maybe you could talk about how the benefits are layering in, in '26. And if, for instance, CSE residential or CSAM continues to drive, what can you do to protect the margin improvement you have in your guidance?

戴夫，你顯然談到了你在 2025 年採取的行動，預計在 2026 年將帶來 1 億美元的成本效益。或許你可以談談這些好處是如何在 2026 年逐步顯現的。例如，如果 CSE 住宅或 CSAM 繼續保持成長勢頭，您該如何保護您在績效指引中實現的利潤率提升？

Okay. I'm going to -- I want to make sure I get the question, but I'm going to walk you through the profit walk '26 versus '25. At a high level, we're targeting about $100 million of incremental operating profit. Volume mix combined is a headwind of about $100 million. We talked earlier about price.

好的。我要——我想確保我理解了這個問題，但我會帶你了解 2026 年與 2025 年的利潤變化。從整體來看，我們的目標是實現約 1 億美元的增量營業利潤。銷量組合方面的不利因素加在一起，造成了約 1 億美元的損失。我們之前討論過價格問題。

So price is about 1 point as I combine that with some of the tariffs, it's about $100 million, $200 million productivity, including the cost actions that we have taken is close to $400 million. We offset that with some of the inflation that I mentioned, the annual increase in merit and then investments and basically, you get to about $100 million increase in operating profit. And then, of course, the segments each have their targets and are working on contingency plans depending on how they perform versus their target for the year.

所以價格大約是 1 個百分點，加上一些關稅，生產力損失大約是 1 億美元到 2 億美元，包括我們採取的成本措施在內，生產力損失接近 4 億美元。我們用我提到的通貨膨脹、年度績效成長和投資來抵消這些損失，基本上，營業利潤可以增加約 1 億美元。當然，各個業務部門都有各自的目標，並根據其年度目標完成情況制定應急計劃。

That's helpful, Patrick. And maybe you can touch on the guide for CSA, I mean on the confidence level there for flat in '26. As you know, China RLC revenue was down ending in Q4 '25. You talked about destocking, but it looks like your orders bounced back a little and maybe it's easy comps in China. So give us more comment on what you're seeing there versus the rest of Asia?

那很有幫助，派崔克。或許您可以談談 CSA 的指南，我的意思是，關於 2026 年的信心水準。如您所知，中國RLC的營收在2025年第四季末出現下滑。你之前提到過去庫存，但看起來你的訂單量有所回升，而且可能在中國市場很容易找到競爭對手。那麼，請您就您在那裡看到的與亞洲其他地區相比有何不同之處，再發表一些看法？

For AME for '26, Andy, we're guiding flat. We expect China to be down about high single digits. We think RLC softness continues. We think that's down about 20% with the CAT business in China being up low single digits. And then the rest of Asia to grow high single digits.

安迪，對於 2026 年的 AME，我們持平穩策略。我們預期中國經濟成長將下降近兩位數。我們認為RLC的疲軟態勢仍將持續。我們認為這一數字下降了約 20%，而 CAT 在中國的業務則實現了個位數低成長。然後亞洲其他地區將實現接近兩位數的成長。

We've been doing very well in places like India, the Middle East, Japan, those have been -- that are watching us for the last two years. Japan actually grew 8%. And frankly, when we bought that Toshiba business, very little growth with margins pretty close to zero. And by the end of this year, our EBIT ROS should be in the mid-teens. And last year, we grew 8%.

我們在印度、中東、日本等地都做得非常好，這些地方在過去兩年裡一直在關注我們。日本實際成長了8%。坦白說，當我們收購東芝業務時，成長非常緩慢，利潤率幾乎為零。到今年年底，我們的息稅前利潤率應該可以達到十幾個百分點。去年，我們成長了 8%。

So a lot of good work outside of China, resi in China remains tough. We tried to take some actions in the fourth quarter to decrease the amount of inventory in the channel on the residential side. So hopefully, that helps us a bit going into next year, but the macros in that resi channel business are still tough.

所以，雖然在中國境外做了很多好事，但留在中國仍然很艱難。我們在第四季嘗試採取一些措施，以減少住宅管道的庫存量。所以，希望這能對我們明年有所幫助，但住宅通路業務的宏觀情況仍然很嚴峻。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Dave, if we just step back in terms of all the dynamics and the destocking, what's your expectation when we come into the typical cooling season. There's still a sense there's some pent-up demand on the resi side and channel inventory at eight-year lows. Will there be any chance of stock outs or just -- it sounds like the channel could be some channel inefficiencies. And just kind of how are you prepared for that?

戴夫，如果我們拋開所有動態因素和去庫存因素，你對典型的降溫季節有什麼預期？人們仍然感覺到住宅方面存在一些被壓抑的需求，渠道庫存處於八年來的最低水平。是否有可能出現缺貨的情況，或者只是——聽起來像是通路效率低。那你打算如何應對這種情況呢？

It's -- one of the things that we put a lot of emphasis on, obviously forecasting, but also operational agility. So as we get into the season, we have our forecast. We've assumed, for example, that the first quarter is down in the 20%, 25% range. And January was kind of consistent with what we thought was going to happen for the first quarter. As you get into the season, what we've learned from last year is that things can surprise you to the upside or downside.

顯然，預測是我們非常重視的事情之一，營運靈活性也是如此。隨著賽季的到來，我們有了預測。例如，我們假設第一季下降了 20% 到 25%。一月份的情況與我們對第一季的預期基本一致。隨著賽季的進行，我們從去年的經驗中了解到，事情可能會為你帶來意想不到的好結果，也可能帶來壞結果。

So we just need to be ready. If we get into the season and weather is a very positive factor. We have inventory levels in the channel quite low. Demand starts to pick up. We will be positioned operationally to support that, but we think we've tried to plan in a way consistent with what we've been seeing over these last six months.

所以我們必須做好準備。如果進入賽季，天氣將是一個非常有利的因素。我們通路內的庫存水準相當低。需求開始回升。我們將做好營運準備來支持這一點，但我們認為我們已經努力按照過去六個月來我們所看到的情況來製定計劃。

All right. That's good to hear. We'll be listening to Al Roker. And on the data center side, what are the implications on the recent comments from NVIDIA regarding chiller demand. does that change your expectations for the mix between water and chillers? Does it change any of the configuration, economics of the configurations that you're modeling in today?

好的。聽到這個消息真好。我們將收聽艾爾·羅克的節目。在資料中心方面，NVIDIA 最近關於冷水機組需求的言論會帶來哪些影響？這是否會改變您對水冷和冷水機組使用比例的期望？這會改變您目前建模的任何配置或經濟性嗎？

We actually have been very, very fortunate to work very closely with NVIDIA. Frankly, earlier this week in Vegas, our team was meeting with NVIDIA. We've been working together on a number of climate optimized reference designs and thinking very closely about the chilling requirements for their future chip, the Barry Rubin. What I would say, Deane, at the highest level is that, number one, data centers will require a combination of liquid cooling and traditional cooling, and we are confident that NVIDIA agrees with that. If you look at the black well chip and the nevirarubin chip, they both have similar thermal profiles.

我們非常幸運能夠與英偉達密切合作。坦白說，本週早些時候，我們的團隊在拉斯維加斯與英偉達公司進行了會面。我們一直在合作開發一些氣候優化參考設計，並密切關注他們未來晶片 Barry Rubin 的冷卻要求。迪恩，我想說的是，從最高層面來說，首先，資料中心需要液冷和傳統冷卻相結合，我們相信英偉達也同意這一點。如果你觀察黑井晶片和nevirarubin晶片，你會發現它們的散熱特性相似。

They're both designed to operate up to 55 degrees C, so both need some form of cooling. The virirubin chips will be more efficient and deliver a lot more output, but the input temperature will be about the same. And that power translates directly into heat. So both designs require the same amount of heat dissipation. So we're working closely with NVIDIA and of course, our hyperscaler and colo customers.

它們的設計工作溫度上限均為 55 攝氏度，因此都需要某種形式的冷卻。virirubin晶片的效率會更高，輸出功率也會更高，但輸入溫度大致相同。而這種能量會直接轉化為熱。因此，兩種設計所需的散熱量相同。因此，我們正在與 NVIDIA 以及我們的超大規模資料中心和託管客戶密切合作。

We're working on both liquid cooling traditional cooling, the combination through our Quantum Leap offering. And yes, there's going to be -- depending on the customer, some prefer water cooling if you have access to more water and then a lot of our recent wins have been on the air cool side. Good to hear.

我們正在研究液冷、傳統冷卻以及透過我們的量子飛躍產品將兩者結合的技術。是的，根據客戶的不同，有些人喜歡水冷，因為他們有更多的水源；而我們最近取得的許多成功案例都是風冷方面的。很高興聽到這個消息。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to follow up on some of that conversation around speaking to the channel partners. Do you think your channel partners plan for the same level of spring purchasing that they have done in prior years? Or do you think it would maybe be a more spread out cadence throughout Q2 and Q3, just given all the volatility that they've had to work through over the last 12 months. because while channel inventories have returned to 2018 levels prepare some of the comments, it seems like demand could be tracking below 2018 levels.

我想就與通路夥伴溝通的一些主題進行後續討論。您認為您的通路夥伴計劃在春季進行與往年相同規模的採購嗎？或者您認為考慮到過去12個月他們所經歷的種種波動，第二季和第三季的節奏可能會更加分散？因為儘管渠道庫存已經恢復到2018年的水準（根據一些評論），但需求似乎仍低於2018年的水準。

Yes, Chris, I think that our channel partners are planning the year very consistent with how we're planning the year. So I think after what we all saw in the second half of last year, where, frankly, we all got surprised by the magnitude of the decline. I think there's reticence for anyone to get out over their skis. So everyone went to great lengths to get field inventory down, our channel partners and us working with them. We think that we're balanced, and it will all now be a function of underlying demand as we get into the season.

是的，克里斯，我認為我們的通路合作夥伴的年度計畫與我們自己的年度計畫非常一致。所以我覺得，鑑於去年下半年我們所看到的情況，坦白說，我們都對下滑的幅度感到驚訝。我認為大家都不太願意滑雪出去玩。因此，大家竭盡全力減少現場庫存，我們的通路合作夥伴和我們與他們一起努力。我們認為目前供需平衡，接下來的一切都將取決於旺季到來後的潛在需求。

So I think that, clearly, there will be more demand as we get into the season than off-season. I think it would be a typical ramp but off a lower base.

所以我認為，很明顯，隨著賽季的進行，需求量會比淡季時更大。我認為那會是一個典型的斜坡，只是底座較低。

I appreciate that. And then maybe if I could follow up on Americas margins. I think Patrick said Q1 of about 15%. So if my math is right, it seems like you guys are calling for Q2 to Q3 to get back to that mid-20-ish range. And obviously, that's a level that you guys have gotten to consistently in the past.

我很感激。然後，或許我可以跟進美國的利潤率。我認為帕特里克說的是第一季大約是 15%。所以如果我的計算沒錯的話，你們似乎預測第二季到第三季會回到20左右的水平。顯然，你們過去一直都能達到這樣的水準。

But can you just maybe talk about the path to get there? Because it feels like there would still be some level of absorption headwinds, volumes still down and just continued cost inflation in the market.

但您能否談談實現目標的途徑？因為感覺市場仍會面臨一定程度的吸收阻力，銷售量仍下降，而且成本還會持續上漲。

Yes, Chris. So most of the under absorption year-over-year this year will be in Q1 for resi. And then sequentially, given the seasonal build, which there will be a seasonal build that typically happens in the second quarter, late in the first quarter. And that is the reason, frankly, why sequentially we expect margins to improve in that mid-20s range, as you mentioned, for CSA. And so it's a combination of less headwind from under-absorption as well as an improvement in sequential sales, which is typical for CSA, even though in absolute terms, organic sales will be lower than the year before.

是的，克里斯。因此，今年同比吸收量不足的大部分將出現在第一季的住宅市場。然後，考慮到季節性因素，通常會在第二季或第一季末出現季節性成長。坦白說，這就是我們預計 CSA 的利潤率將逐週提高到 20% 左右的原因，正如您所提到的。因此，這是由於吸收不足帶來的不利影響減少以及環比銷售額的改善共同作用的結果，這對於 CSA 來說是典型的，儘管從絕對值來看，有機銷售額將低於上一年。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

阿米特·梅赫羅特拉，瑞銀集團。

Dave, I just had maybe a philosophical question and then I wanted to get a follow-up on incremental margins, if I could. So first, folks sometimes never waste a good crisis. And what I mean by that is that given kind of the environment that you've had to endure. Has that offered an opportunity to kind of rethink how the company approaches some of the structural costs? Is there anything that you're doing or want to do differently with respect to cost that's born from this environment of just hypercyclicality in the market?

戴夫，我剛才可能有個哲學方面的問題想請教一下，然後我想了解一下增量利潤率的相關情況，如果可以的話。首先，人們有時絕對不會浪費一場好危機。我的意思是，考慮到你所經歷的那種環境。這是否為公司提供了一個重新思考如何應對某些結構性成本的機會？在當前市場高度週期性的環境下，您在成本方面是否有任何正在採取或想要採取的不同做法？

For sure, I mean I love the question because as you just said, you never want to let a good crisis go away. So we -- certainly, from a cost perspective, we did take out, which is very, very difficult, but the right thing to do, we did have to reduce 3,000 heads last year, mostly in the second half of last year. We always look at our footprint and we've had to rationalize our footprint, and there will be more of that as we go forward. And then we look at our overall way of doing business. So we're using AI across our functions to drive more productivity.

當然，我很喜歡這個問題，因為正如你剛才所說，你永遠不想讓一場好的危機就此消失。所以，從成本角度來看，我們確實削減了成本，這非常非常困難，但卻是正確的做法，我們去年不得不裁減 3000 頭牲畜，主要是在去年下半年。我們始終關注我們的足跡，並且不得不合理化我們的足跡，而且隨著我們未來的發展，這種情況會更加明顯。然後我們檢視一下我們的整體經營方式。因此，我們正在各個職能部門應用人工智慧來提高生產力。

There's a lot of demands on our people. So it's easy to just sort of try to take out cost. The hard thing is to drive better productivity while taking out costs. So the team's done a great job embracing AI as well to drive more productivity. And then we've looked across everything.

我們的人民面臨許多要求。所以很容易就能想辦法降低成本。困難在於如何在降低成本的同時提高生產效率。因此，該團隊在運用人工智慧提高生產力方面也做得非常出色。然後，我們已經把所有東西都查看了一遍。

We've looked at our forecasting. We've looked at how our whole growth process and how we look at specific campaign by campaign and introducing new products into the marketplace to ensure we win and we've looked at product platforming. So how we can use a back-office COE concept for engineering to drive product platforming. So we made a lot of changes.

我們已經查看了我們的預測數據。我們審視了整個成長過程，以及我們如何逐一分析特定的行銷活動，並將新產品引入市場以確保我們取得成功，我們也研究了產品平台。那麼，我們如何利用後台卓越中心（COE）的概念來推動工程產品平台化呢？所以我們做了很多改變。

Look, our formula worked since our spin. We got surprised in the second half of last year by some of the residential downturn. We are not pleased that we missed in the second half. It's not who we are. We plan for that never to happen again.

你看，自從我們開始改革以來，我們的策略就奏效了。去年下半年，一些住宅市場下滑，讓我們感到驚訝。我們對下半場的失誤感到遺憾。這不是我們真正的為人。我們計劃確保這種情況不再發生。

That's not who we are as a company. And we went to great lengths to learn from that in the second half to do everything in our power to make sure it never happens again.

我們公司不是那樣的。下半年，我們竭盡全力從中吸取教訓，盡一切努力確保此類事件不再發生。

Great. And just a follow-up, highly related to that. If I look at the decremental margins, obviously, very, very high in the fourth quarter, could have implied quite high in the first quarter as well. But the counterpoint to that is high decrementals sort of also imply high incrementals. And I'd just be curious, when this thing turns and eventually, it will turn, how much cost do you have to -- do you think you have to bring back? And can we be looking at the same type of margin just incrementally as opposed to decrementally if you can talk about that?

偉大的。還有一點後續問題，與此密切相關。如果我看一下遞減利潤率，很明顯，第四季的遞減利潤率非常非常高，這可能意味著第一季的遞減利潤率也相當高。但與之相反的是，高減量也意味著高增量。我只是好奇，當這件事轉變時（最終它一定會發生轉變），你認為你需要付出多少代價才能挽回局面？如果可以的話，我們能否以遞增的方式（而不是遞減的方式）來看待同樣的利潤率？

Yes, Chris, maybe a little bit about the Q4 decrementals. And if you look at the decrementals, it looks like it's a 70% decremental. It's impacted by currency. If you yank out currency, which is about $150 million in sales with no earnings. Our decrementals are 50%, still really high, but not, of course, close to 70%.

是的，克里斯，或許可以稍微談談第四季的減損部分。如果你看一下遞減量，看起來是遞減了 70%。它受匯率影響。如果你把錢取出來，那就相當於損失了大約 1.5 億美元的銷售額，卻沒有任何收益。我們的減量為 50%，仍然很高，但當然遠不及 70%。

And the 50% of the represents or reflects sales reductions in resi and light commercial in the US and the under absorption. So as those businesses recover, which, as you said, at some point, they will recover, we expect to have high incrementals. And you mentioned how much of the cost we've taken out do we have to add back. Our current guide includes about $100 million of incremental investments.

其中 50% 代表或反映了美國住宅和輕型商業房地產的銷售額下降以及市場消化不足。因此，隨著這些企業復甦（正如你所說，它們遲早會復甦），我們預計會有很高的增量。你提到過，我們已經削減的成本中，有多少需要重新加回去。我們目前的投資指南包括約 1 億美元的新增投資。

Throughout this period, we continue to invest in sales resources and digital capabilities. And so I do not expect we have to add a lot of incremental costs that we've taken out this year. as business improves, we will continue to increase our annual investments, but I don't see a step-up after what we've done last year.

在此期間，我們將繼續投資於銷售資源和數位化能力。因此，我預計我們無需增加今年已經削減的大量額外成本。隨著業務好轉，我們將繼續增加年度投資，但我認為不會比去年的投資金額大幅增加。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬‧奧迪亞，富國銀行。

Dave, can you just taking a step back and thinking about the resi cycle and 6.5 million units and underlying support for nine. Just talk about the building blocks to get back to nine, the degree to which what we're seeing this year is just replacement that happened maybe sooner than it needed to in that 2020 to '24 period. what you think about in terms of repair versus replace dragging things out a little bit in '26, but most important, that path to get back to nine.

Dave，你能退後一步，想想住宅週期、650萬套住房以及九個潛在支撐嗎？就談談如何重回九強，以及我們今年看到的只是替換，而這種替換可能比2020年至2024年期間所需的時間要早。你認為在維修和替換之間應該如何權衡？ 2026年可能會稍微拖延一下，但最重要的是，要找到重回九強的途徑。

Yes, Joe, I think it comes back to the fundamentals. Once you start to see the 30 year start with a five or less, it's been starting in the low-six's a little bit of tailwind on consumer confidence, a pickup in new home construction, especially on single-family side and existing home sales A lot of those elements, once you start to see that underlying demand pick back up, we should start to see a reversion to the mean of that overall 9 million units. I think in terms of repair versus replace I have no doubt that we saw an uptick in repair last year. We don't think that, that's a long-term trend. And I would say for three reasons, Joe.

是的，喬，我認為關鍵在於基本面。一旦30年房價跌破500萬套，而先前30年房價跌破600萬套，消費者信心有所回升，新房建設（尤其是獨棟住宅）和二手房銷售也出現回暖，這些因素都會推動房價回升。一旦潛在需求回升，房價就會回歸900萬套的平均值。我認為，就維修與更換而言，毫無疑問，去年維修的數量有所增加。我們認為這不是一種長期趨勢。喬，我會給出三個理由。

Number one is that the economics will almost always weigh better in favor of a replacement. A typical repair can cost $1,000 compressor can be a PK, but it only extends the unit's life by one to three years. So in general, a consumer will be better off with a full replacement.

第一點是，從經濟角度來看，更換新設備幾乎總是更划算。典型的維修可能要花費 1000 美元，壓縮機可能是 PK，但這只能延長設備的壽命一到三年。因此，一般來說，消費者最好選擇完全更換。

Number two, it was particularly impacted by low sale of existing homes because it hurts you on both ends from the homeowner that's been waiting to buy a new home is a little bit reluctant to have a full replacement a year or two before they sell their home. So they may be waiting and limping along with the repair. And once they buy the home, they will often negotiate a replacement of the HVAC product as part of the full replacement. So that Decrease in existing home sales has put probably more pressure on repair versus replace, but as existing home sales starts to pick up, which it eventually will, you'll get back into that replacement cycle.

第二，二手房銷售低迷尤其對其造成了影響，因為這對買賣雙方都不利：一直等待購買新房的房主不太願意在出售房屋前一兩年進行徹底的房屋更換。所以他們可能正在等待，並且進展緩慢。一旦他們買下房子，他們通常會協商將暖通空調產品的更換作為整體更換的一部分。因此，二手房銷售的減少可能給維修而非更換帶來了更大的壓力，但隨著二手房銷售開始回升（這種情況最終會發生），你將重新進入更換週期。

And the third piece I'd mention is what you typically see in an industry is with the refrigerant chain, you do refrigerant change, you see more repair versus replace. It takes a while for the channel to get trained on the new refrigerant. Last year, we had a canister shortage with the 454B, which impacted things a bit. And then the old refrigerant eventually becomes more expensive and it's harder to access. So that it will lead to more replacement over time.

第三點我想提一下，在冷媒鏈中，你通常會看到冷媒更換，你會發現維修比更換更多。頻道需要一段時間才能熟悉這種新型冷媒。去年，454B 型氣罐短缺，這造成了一些影響。然後，舊的冷媒最終會變得更貴，也更難取得。這樣一來，隨著時間的推移，就會導致更多的替換。

So we need the macros to recover. We don't see repair over replace as a long-term trend. And once that happens, which it eventually will, and will be ready operationally to support our customers. The conversion on that will be quite positive.

所以我們需要宏來恢復。我們認為維修優於更換並非長期趨勢。一旦這種情況發生（而這最終一定會發生），它就能在營運上做好準備，為我們的客戶提供支援。轉換率將會相當不錯。

That's helpful color. And then just on CDUs, why do you win on CDUs? We hear talk about a pretty fragmented competitive environment, just the degree to which for you, a sale tends to be more of a system sale with a chiller and air handling what that means for margin profile of a CDU and if that's dragging things down at all? Just to explain that a little bit.

這是個很有幫助的顏色。那麼，就基德姆聯（CDU）而言，為什麼你能在基德姆聯上贏球？我們聽說競爭環境相當分散，對您而言，銷售往往更像是包含冷水機組和空氣處理設備的系統銷售，這對常溫乾燥機組的利潤率意味著什麼？這是否會拖累利潤率？稍微解釋一下。

Yes. No, no margin drag at all from the CDUs. I'm really proud of the team because we looked -- on the liquid cooling side, we've looked at both organic and inorganic. And we've opted for a couple of VC investments. We still have a percentage of ZutaCore, which has a 2-phase solution.

是的。不，CDU 完全沒有造成任何利潤拖累。我為團隊感到非常自豪，因為我們研究了——在液冷方面，我們研究了有機和無機兩種方案。我們選擇了進行幾項風險投資。我們仍然持有一定比例的 ZutaCore 股份，它採用兩相解決方案。

On the CDU side, we decided to produce our own. It's essentially a mini chiller. We introduced at 1.3 megawatt last year. We've already had a really nice win down in the southern part of the United States. We just got a handshake on a new win earlier this week for another 1 in South America.

在基民盟這邊，我們決定自己生產。它本質上就是一個迷你冷藏機。我們去年推出了1.3兆瓦的產品。我們在美國南部已經取得了一場非常漂亮的勝利。本週早些時候，我們剛剛與南美洲的另一支球隊握手，宣布又取得了一場勝利。

So we feel good about what we've introduced organically. We have a 3 and a 5-megawatt coming out later this year. There's a lot of interest. And I think that part of it is our relationship with customers, but part of it is that interaction not only between traditional cooling and liquid cooling, but the entire cooling cycle with our chip customers as well. So we're really excited about what we have going on in liquid cooling and Quantum Leap.

所以我們對自然而然引入的這些內容感到滿意。今年晚些時候，我們將推出3兆瓦和5兆瓦的機組。大家對此很感興趣。我認為一部分原因是我們與客戶的關係，另一部分原因是我們與晶片客戶之間，不僅是傳統冷卻和液冷之間的互動，還有整個冷卻週期的互動。所以，我們對液冷技術和量子飛躍技術的發展感到非常興奮。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

I wanted to circle back on the comments about movement. Two-part question here was the down 30 million in the fourth quarter. Is that a volume number or a revenue number? And then as you think about movement in '26. David, if I'm trying to read between the lines here, I think you're essentially saying that channel inventories are pretty balanced currently. And so I think the takeaway there is movement on to track your sales pretty closely through '26, but correct me if that's not right.

我想再談談關於運動的評論。這裡有兩個問題，分別是第四季下降了 3000 萬美元。這是銷量數據還是營收數據？然後，當你思考 26 年的運動。David，如果我沒理解錯的話，你的意思基本上是說目前渠道庫存相當平衡。所以我認為，關鍵在於要密切注意 2026 年的銷售情況，但如果我的理解有誤，請指正。

It's generally right. What I would say, first of all, Tommy, volume was down a little bit north of 40%. Our sales were down in the high 30s because we got a mid-single-digit benefit from price and mix. The movement -- if you think about this year, MOVEMENT will generally track our sales, except in the second half, we get a bit of a benefit from the absence of destocking that happened in the second half of last year.

整體來說是正確的。首先我想說的是，Tommy，音量下降了 40% 多一點。由於價格和產品組合優化帶來了個位數的收益，我們的銷售額下降了30%以上。趨勢—如果你回顧今年，趨勢通常會與我們的銷售額保持一致，但下半年除外，由於去年下半年沒有出現去庫存的情況，我們獲得了一些好處。

Okay. Thank you for that clarification (multiple speakers) --

好的。謝謝你的解釋。（多位發言者）——

The Q4 number we said was volume was units. The Q4 movement was down over 30% is volume.

我們之前提到的第四季銷售數據是單位數。第四季成交量下降超過30%。

Yes. Okay. And just sticking with resi for a follow-up here. Obviously, there have been a lot of headwinds on the volume side. We can all make guesses as to what the drivers are.

是的。好的。接下來就繼續跟進 resi 的情況。顯然，銷量方面遇到了許多不利因素。我們都可以猜測一下驅動因素是什麼。

But one that hasn't been mentioned squarely that I just want to mention now is Daikin, which obviously lost a lot of market share towards the end of 2024. You were one of the clear beneficiaries of that. And so granted the industry demand levels are pretty poor right now. But could your volumes also not just be reflecting the fact that they've been able to take back some of that share and that's not a fault of anyone that's just a reality that there's a mean reversion in place. And so you're going to see some of that in volume headwinds at Carrier.

但還有一家公司沒有被明確提及，而我現在想提一下，那就是大金，該公司在 2024 年底顯然失去了許多市場份額。你是其中明顯的受益者之一。因此，目前該產業的需求水準確實相當低迷。但你的銷售是否也可能只是反映了他們已經奪回了一些市場份額，而這並不是任何人的錯，這只是均值回歸的現實。因此，你會看到開利公司在銷售方面面臨一些不利因素。

We don't think so, Tommy. We understand what you're saying, that we know that there's been some changes in share in the industry over the last five years. If you look at us versus spin, we're probably up a few hundred basis points since we spun. And if you look at our share last year, I would call it flat from a movement perspective, a sell-out perspective. So we saw no change in share last year.

我們不這麼認為，湯米。我們明白你的意思，我們也知道在過去五年裡，產業份額發生了一些變化。如果將我們與Spin進行比較，自從我們進行Spin以來，我們可能已經上漲了幾百個基點。如果從走勢和拋售的角度來看，去年我們的市佔率可以說是持平的。所以去年我們的市佔率沒有改變。

We understand there's some movement in terms of some folks that may have lost some share and picked it up from our perspective. up a few hundred bps since we spun. And last year, we held steady at that number. And we expect to hold steady at that number, if not increase. We have a bunch of new products coming out.

我們了解到，部分投資者可能失去了一些市場份額，但從我們的角度來看，他們的市場份額有所回升。自從我們調整策略以來，市佔率已經上升了幾百個基點。去年，我們的數字保持在這個水平。我們預計這個數字將保持穩定，甚至可能成長。我們即將推出一系列新產品。

We have a new fan coil that showed a lot of -- there was a lot of interest in Vegas earlier this week. The team has done really well with our channel partners to position us. So we have no intent of losing any share while maintaining price. And we want to ensure that we are on that track of gaining share.

我們新推出的風機盤管表現出了很大的潛力——本週早些時候在拉斯維加斯引起了廣泛關注。團隊與通路夥伴的合作非常出色，幫助我們提升了市場地位。因此，我們無意在維持價格的同時失去任何股份。我們希望確保我們走在不斷擴大市場份額的道路上。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to David Gitlin for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給大衛·吉特林，請他作總結發言。

Well, listen, thanks to all of you. We could not be more energized about this year. We did take the opportunity to learn from some things from last year and apply those to position us for a tremendous year in '26. So my thanks to our nearly 50,000 teammates around the world, and thanks to our investors for your continued confidence.

好了，謝謝大家。我們對今年充滿熱情。我們確實抓住了機會，從去年的一些事情中吸取了教訓，並將這些經驗應用到2026年，為取得輝煌的成績做好準備。在此，我要感謝我們遍佈全球的近 5 萬名團隊成員，也要感謝我們的投資人一直以來的信任。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。您現在可以斷開連線了。