開利公司 (CARR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Carrier's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加 Carrier 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Sam Pearlstein, Vice President of Investor Relations and CFO of the Fire & Security Segment. Please go ahead, sir.

我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁兼消防與安全部門首席財務官 Sam Pearlstein。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Carrier's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me here today are David Gitlin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Goris, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，早安，歡迎參加開利 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長戴維·吉特林 (David Gitlin)；和財務長帕特里克·戈里斯。

We will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business. These non-GAAP measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available to download from Carrier's website at ir.carrier.com.

我們將在這次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計原則措施，管理層認為這些措施與評估業務的財務表現有關。這些非 GAAP 指標與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，收益報告可從 Carrier 網站 ir.carrier.com 下載。

The company reminds listeners that the sales, earnings and cash flow expectations and any other forward-looking statements provided during the call are subject to risks and uncertainties. Carrier's SEC filings, including Forms 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

該公司提醒聽眾，電話會議期間提供的銷售、盈利和現金流預期以及任何其他前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。Carrier 的 SEC 文件（包括表格 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K）提供了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

Once the call is open for questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to give everyone the opportunity to participate.

一旦電話會議開放提問，我們要求您只提出一個問題和一項後續行動，以便讓每個人都有機會參與。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Dave Gitlin

我想將電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官戴夫·吉特林 (Dave Gitlin)

Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. Let me first welcome Ed Dryden to Carrier, who comes to us from RTX Collins Aerospace to lead our Refrigeration business, bringing extensive experience driving business growth and delivering results. Ed succeeds Tim White has moved into a new Chief Product Officer role responsible for program execution and our increased focus on global platforms, both reporting to me.

謝謝你，山姆，大家早安。首先讓我歡迎 Ed Dryden 加入開利，他從 RTX Collins Aerospace 來到我們，領導我們的冷凍業務，帶來了推動業務成長和交付成果的豐富經驗。艾德接替蒂姆懷特 (Tim White) 擔任新的首席產品官，負責專案執行和我們對全球平台的更多關注，兩者都向我匯報。

Welcome, Ed, and thank you, Tim. Pivoting to 2Q. another strong quarter. Q2 organic sales or excuse me, Q2 organic orders were up roughly 30% year-over-year and HVAC organic orders were up over 40% with very strong order intake in data centers. Better-than-expected and continued strong sales growth in our Global Commercial and Light Commercial HVAC businesses helped to offset weakness in our RLC businesses in Europe and China.

歡迎，艾德，謝謝你，提姆。轉向第二季。另一個強勁的季度。第二季有機銷售額，請原諒，第二季有機訂單年增約 30%，HVAC 有機訂單成長超過 40%，資料中心的訂單量非常強勁。我們的全球商業和輕型商業暖通空調業務優於預期且持續強勁的銷售成長有助於抵消我們在歐洲和中國的 RLC 業務的疲軟。

Importantly, our Resi business in North America returned to year-over-year volume growth and given strong orders and low inventory channel levels, we are now poised for a strong second half. Also, we continue to execute well, as reflected by another quarter of significant margin expansion. Q2 adjusted operating margins expanded by 200 points to 18.1% and adjusted EPS was again up double-digits, fueled by strong productivity driven by our Carrier excellence business operating system.

重要的是，我們在北美的 Resi 業務恢復了同比銷量增長，並且鑑於訂單強勁和庫存渠道水平較低，我們現在已準備好迎接下半年的強勁增長。此外，我們繼續保持良好的執行力，這一點從另一個季度的利潤率大幅擴張就可以看出。第二季調整後營業利潤率擴大了 200 個百分點，達到 18.1%，調整後每股收益再次實現兩位數增長，這得益於我們的運營商卓越業務操作系統帶來的強勁生產力。

While we perform, we continue to transform. We closed on the sales of our Access Solutions and Industrial Fire businesses, KFI closed on its sale, and we expect to close the Commercial Refrigeration transaction around the end of Q3.

在我們表演的同時，我們也不斷轉型。我們完成了門禁解決方案和工業消防業務的出售，KFI 完成了其出售，我們預計將在第三季末左右完成商用冷凍交易。

We are also making great progress on the sale of our Residential and Commercial Fire business. Strong free cash flow in the quarter of about $550 million and our progress on the business exits have contributed to our significant net debt reduction in the quarter and have positioned us to initiate a multi-billion dollar share buyback, $1 billion targeted for the second half of this year.

我們在出售住宅和商業消防業務方面也取得了巨大進展。本季約5.5 億美元的強勁自由現金流以及我們在業務退出方面取得的進展，有助於我們在本季度大幅減少淨債務，並使我們能夠發起數十億美元的股票回購，下半年目標為10 億美元今年的。

As you can see on Slide 4, we continue to stay laser-focused on and make great progress towards our North Star being the global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions. Each word of our vision has meaning, and we are purposeful in our investments to prioritize the key elements of our strategy. As a global leader, we have gained share across all major segments. Connectivity is a key enabler to provide scalable intelligent solutions.

正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的，我們繼續專注於我們的北極星，並在成為智慧氣候和能源解決方案的全球領導者方面取得了巨大進展。我們願景中的每一個字都有意義，我們的投資有目的地優先考慮我們策略的關鍵要素。作為全球領導者，我們在所有主要領域都獲得了份額。連接性是提供可擴展智慧解決方案的關鍵推動因素。

We now have almost 40,000 connected chillers on track to 50,000 by year-end. Our Abound intelligent building platform now monitors over 1.1 billion square feet, and we currently have over 150,000 paid subscriptions for our Lynx cold chain platform.

我們現在擁有近 40,000 台連網冷水機，預計到年底將達到 50,000 台。我們的 Abound 智慧建築平台現已監控超過 11 億平方英尺，目前 Lynx 冷鏈平台的付費訂閱量已超過 15 萬人。

We continue to innovate and launch differentiated sustainable solutions. In Q2, we introduced a low GWP variant of our award-winning AquaEdge Water Cooled Chiller. Likewise, we are the first to offer 3 ton to 10 ton entry tier rooftop units using our highly differentiated EcoBlue fan technology with low GWP refrigerants. All these offerings provide our customers with energy savings, while reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

我們不斷創新並推出差異化的永續解決方案。在第二季度，我們推出了屢獲殊榮的 AquaEdge 水冷冷水機的低 GWP 變體。同樣，我們是第一家使用高度差異化的 EcoBlue 風扇技術和低 GWP 冷媒提供 3 噸至 10 噸入門級屋頂機組的公司。所有這些產品為我們的客戶節省能源，同時減少溫室氣體排放。

We play a key role in enhancing grid resilience. For example, Viessmann Climate Solutions recently launched a battery energy storage system with expanded capacity from 15-kilowatt hours to now 75-kilowatt hours, importantly expanding our addressable market. The solutions concept relates to the unique value propositions that we provide to our customers and greater recurring revenues they provide to us. You see examples of our continued traction on aftermarket on Slide 5.

我們在增強電網彈性方面發揮關鍵作用。例如，菲斯曼氣候解決方案最近推出了一種電池儲能係統，容量從 15 千瓦時擴大到現在的 75 千瓦時，重要的是擴大了我們的潛在市場。解決方案概念涉及我們為客戶提供的獨特價值主張以及他們為我們提供的更大的經常性收入。您可以在投影片 5 上看到我們對售後市場持續關注的範例。

Aftermarket growth in Q2 was 9%, and we are confident that this year, we will deliver another year of double-digit growth. We have further refined our playbook with new digital tools that we have cascaded globally driving both better execution and new solutions for our customers. We are confident that our proven formula works as we continue to target double-digit aftermarket growth forever.

第二季售後市場成長率為 9%，我們有信心今年將再次實現兩位數成長。我們利用新的數位工具進一步完善了我們的策略，這些工具已在全球範圍內級聯，為客戶提供更好的執行和新的解決方案。我們相信，隨著我們繼續以兩位數的售後市場成長為目標，我們的行之有效的公式將發揮作用。

Moving to Slide 6. About a year ago, we announced that we would be transforming Carrier into a more focused pure-play higher growth company with significantly higher exposure to the secular tailwinds around sustainability, electrification and energy resilience. I am proud to report that our team continues to do what we say we're going to do. We are successfully integrating with Viessmann Climate Solutions a truly world-class organization. Our divestitures remain very much on track and we are deploying the proceeds as committed.

轉到投影片 6。大約一年前，我們宣布將把開利轉型為一家更專注的純業務高成長公司，在永續發展、電氣化和能源彈性方面的長期順風車中的曝險顯著增加。我很自豪地向大家報告，我們的團隊將繼續按照我們所說的去做。我們正在成功與菲斯曼氣候解決方案公司整合，這是一個真正的世界級組織。我們的資產剝離仍處於正軌，我們正在按照承諾部署收益。

Our first three exits will yield over $7 billion in gross proceeds. Our commercial and residential fire exit is also progressing well, supported by excellent business performance. We plan to announce a signed agreement before the end of Q3 with a transaction closed around year end. Given our progress, we have reduced net debt by over $5 billion in the second quarter and plan to initiate our multi-billion dollar buyback that I mentioned earlier.

我們的前三項退出將產生超過 70 億美元的總收益。在出色的業務表現的支持下，我們的商業和住宅消防通道也進展順利。我們計劃在第三季末之前宣布簽署協議，並在年底左右完成交易。鑑於我們取得的進展，我們在第二季度已減少了超過 50 億美元的淨債務，並計劃啟動我之前提到的數十億美元的回購。

With the portfolio transformation tracking to plan, we are heads down focused on working with Viessmann Climate Solutions to realize the full potential of this tremendous combination and you can see our progress on Slide 7.

隨著投資組合轉型追蹤計劃，我們正專注於與 Viessmann Climate Solutions 合作，以實現這一巨大組合的全部潛力，您可以在幻燈片 7 上看到我們的進展。

This is truly a world-class team and business. Our heat pumps are unquestionably differentiated, providing superior electricity savings for our customers. Noise attenuation, energy efficiency, ease of installation, reliability and aesthetics are all best-in-class.

這確實是一個世界一流的團隊和企業。毫無疑問，我們的熱泵與眾不同，為我們的客戶提供卓越的節電效果。噪音衰減、能源效率、安裝簡單性、可靠性和美觀度都是一流的。

We have added 1,500 direct-to-installer relationships this year and continue to expand our network. The successful launch of our new larger capacity heat pumps will give us a point of growth this year, and we expect more than that next year.

今年我們增加了 1,500 個直接安裝商關係，並繼續擴大我們的網路。我們新的更大容量熱泵的成功推出將為我們今年帶來一個成長點，我們預計明年會更多。

Viessmann Climate Solutions has gained share in heat pumps across all primary countries where it sells with particular strength in Germany. We have also realized positive price year-to-date. We have identified hundreds of millions of dollars of run rate synergy savings. The most immediate opportunity is leveraging our respective channels.

菲斯曼氣候解決方案在所有主要國家的熱泵市場中都獲得了份額，在德國的銷售尤其強勁。今年迄今為止，我們還實現了積極的價格。我們已經確定可以節省數億美元的運行率綜效。最直接的機會是利用我們各自的管道。

For example, in Europe, we have already delivered our first Carrier branded air conditioning units and our Beretta-branded boilers through the Viessmann channel. Given that only 20% of homes in Europe have air conditioning, roughly 12% in Germany, we see a unique opportunity for us to grow in the cooling only space.

例如，在歐洲，我們已經透過菲斯曼管道交付了第一台開利品牌空調機組和伯萊塔品牌鍋爐。鑑於歐洲只有 20% 的家庭擁有空調，而德國這一比例約為 12%，我們看到了在純製冷領域發展的獨特機會。

We are also leveraging our combined technology strengths. Examples include deploying Viessmann's One Base digital platform across all residential applications and at a systems level, working to provide unique home energy management solutions for North America using Viessmann's battery and systems integration capabilities. We remain on track to achieve $75 million of cost synergies this year, and over $200 million by year three with particular progress on supply chain, logistics, and value engineering.

我們也利用我們的綜合技術優勢。例如在所有住宅應用和系統層級部署菲斯曼的 One Base 數位平台，致力於利用菲斯曼的電池和系統整合能力為北美提供獨特的家庭能源管理解決方案。我們今年仍有望實現 7,500 萬美元的成本綜效，到第三年將實現超過 2 億美元的成本協同效應，特別是在供應鏈、物流和價值工程方面取得進展。

The team is also taking tough, but necessary additional cost control actions. All of this set us up for higher conversion rates. We are also clear that the residential market in Europe has been weaker than we expected. BCS Q2 sales were down about 30% year-over-year, roughly one third of which was driven by lower solar PV sales.

該團隊還採取了嚴厲但必要的額外成本控制措施。所有這些都為我們實現更高的轉換率奠定了基礎。我們也清楚歐洲的住宅市場一直弱於我們的預期。BCS 第二季銷售額年減約 30%，其中約三分之一是由太陽能光電銷售額下降所致。

And our revised outlook for 2024 assumes about a 15% drop in year-over-year sales with a typical seasonal pickup in the second half.

我們修訂後的 2024 年展望假設銷售額年減約 15%，下半年會出現典型的季節性回升。

Importantly, we still have deep conviction in the long-term strategy and growth profile of the business. The EU remains steadfast in its target for 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and the shift to heat pumps must play a critical role. Over 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe come from boilers in homes. Heat pumps are clearly the best alternative to fossil fuel home heating. So we remain confident in this continued long-term transition.

重要的是，我們仍然對業務的長期策略和成長前景抱持堅定的信念。歐盟仍然堅定地堅持到 2030 年將溫室氣體排放量減少 55% 的目標，而向熱泵的轉變必須扮演關鍵角色。歐洲超過 25% 的溫室氣體排放來自家庭鍋爐。熱泵顯然是化石燃料家庭供暖的最佳替代品。因此，我們對這一持續的長期轉型仍然充滿信心。

The reality in our industry is that the macro surrounding certain geographies and verticals will not be strong every year. And the great thing is that we have been very purposeful about constructing our portfolio to provide focus, resiliency, balance, growth and increased exposure to key secular trends all of which you see on Slide 8. We love our positions globally. We are number one or two in most segments with prospects to achieve the same ranking in other targeted segments.

我們行業的現實是，圍繞某些地區和垂直領域的宏觀經濟不會每年都很強勁。最棒的是，我們一直非常有目的地建立我們的投資組合，以提供專注、彈性、平衡、成長和增加對關鍵長期趨勢的接觸，所有這些你都可以在幻燈片 8 中看到。我們熱愛我們在全球的地位。我們在大多數細分市場中排名第一或第二，並且預計在其他目標細分市場中獲得相同的排名。

Not only do we believe that we have the right presence in the right markets, we have the global scale in engineering operations, aftermarket and other functions to benefit the entire portfolio. The combination of our portfolio and our performance culture gives us confidence that we will continue to consistently deliver on our commitments. As we look ahead to 2025, we are poised for strong growth across a significant percentage of our portfolio.

我們相信，我們不僅在正確的市場中擁有正確的存在，而且我們在工程運營、售後市場和其他功能方面擁有全球規模，以使整個產品組合受益。我們的產品組合和績效文化的結合讓我們有信心繼續兌現我們的承諾。展望 2025 年，我們的投資組合中很大一部分將實現強勁成長。

With that, I will turn it over to Patrick. Patrick?

這樣，我就把它交給派崔克。派崔克？

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9. We had a good second quarter. Earnings were in line with our expectations and ahead of our implied adjusted EPS guide provided in April. Reported sales of $6.7 billion were up 12% with organic sales up 2%. Acquisitions and divestitures had a net contribution to sales of 11%, substantially all driven by Viessmann's Climate Solutions, partially offset by the absence of one month for Access Solutions.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。請翻到投影片 9。我們第二季表現不錯。獲利符合我們的預期，並領先於我們 4 月提供的隱含調整後每股盈餘指南。報告銷售額達 67 億美元，成長 12%，其中有機銷售額成長 2%。收購和剝離對銷售額的淨貢獻為 11%，基本上全部由 Viessmann 的氣候解決方案推動，但由於 Access Solutions 缺席一個月而部分抵消。

Q2 adjusted operating profit of over $1.2 billion was up 26% compared to last year, mostly driven by the contribution of Viessmann Climate Solutions, price and productivity. Continued strong productivity also led to a 200 basis points adjusted operating margin expansion. Core earnings conversion that is excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and currency, was over 200% in the quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.87 was up 10% year-over-year. Compared to last year, organic growth price and productivity more than offset the dilutive impact of the Viessmann Climate Solutions acquisition. We have included a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge in the appendix on Slide 22.

第二季調整後營業利潤超過 12 億美元，比去年增長 26%，這主要是由菲斯曼氣候解決方案、價格和生產力的貢獻所推動的。持續強勁的生產力也導致調整後營業利益率擴大 200 個基點。排除收購、資產剝離和匯率影響後，本季核心獲利轉換率超過 200%。調整後每股收益為 0.87 美元，年增 10%。與去年相比，有機成長價格和生產力遠遠抵消了收購菲斯曼氣候解決方案的稀釋影響。我們在投影片 22 的附錄中包含了逐年調整後的 EPS 橋段。

Compared to our Q2 expectations, headwinds from lower earnings at Viessmann Climate Solutions and the earlier timing of the Access Solutions exit were offset by stronger sales in commercial HVAC and North America light commercial HVAC, productivity and a few cents from the timing of taxes. Free cash flow of about $550 million was better than expected, mainly driven by working capital performance and on a year-to-date basis, free cash flow is up 35% compared to last year.

與我們第二季度的預期相比，菲斯曼氣候解決方案收入下降和Access Solutions 退出時間提前帶來的不利因素被商業暖通空調和北美輕型商業暖通空調銷售強勁、生產率以及稅收時間帶來的幾美分所抵消。自由現金流約 5.5 億美元，優於預期，主要受到營運資本績效的推動，今年迄今，自由現金流較去年成長 35%。

Moving on to the segments, starting on Slide 10. HVAC reported sales growth of 18% and reflects the contribution of Viessmann Climate Solutions and organic sales growth of 2%. Organic sales in the Americas were up mid-single digits, driven by double-digit growth in commercial and light commercial.

從投影片 10 開始繼續討論各個片段。HVAC 銷售額成長 18%，反映了菲斯曼氣候解決方案的貢獻和 2% 的有機銷售額成長。在商業和輕商業兩位數成長的推動下，美洲的有機銷售額成長了中個位數。

North American resi was up about mid-single digits, and we expect volume to be up year-over-year in each of the remaining quarters. Organic sales in EMEA were up low-single digits, driven by about a 15% increase in commercial HVAC, partially offset by weaker residential and light commercial sales.

北美樹脂產量成長約中個位數，我們預計剩餘每季的產量將年增。受商業暖通空調 (HVAC) 成長約 15% 的推動，歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 的有機銷售額出現低個位數成長，但部分被住宅和輕型商業銷售疲軟所抵消。

Sales in Asia Pacific were down around 8% driven by weakness in our residential and light commercial markets in China, partially offset by double-digit growth in South Asia. The HVAC segment expanded adjusted operating margins by 110 basis points due to net price and strong productivity. Overall, another strong quarter for HVAC.

由於中國住宅和輕型商業市場疲軟，亞太地區銷售額下降約 8%，但部分被南亞兩位數成長所抵消。由於淨價格和強勁的生產力，暖通空調部門調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 110 個基點。整體而言，暖通空調領域又一個強勁的季度。

Transitioning to refrigeration on Slide 11. Organic sales were up 1% and reported sales were flat. Within transport refrigeration, container was up around 35% year-over-year, while global truck and trailer was down mid-single digits, driven by about a 15% decline in North America. European truck and trailer was up mid-single digits and Asia truck and trailer was up over 25%. Our Sensitech business, which provides solutions for tracking and monitoring temperature was up mid-single digits. Commercial refrigeration was down mid-single digits year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin was flattish compared to last year. This was driven by favorable net price and productivity offset by business mix.

幻燈片 11 上過渡到冷藏。有機銷售額成長 1%，報告銷售額持平。在運輸冷藏領域，貨櫃年增約 35%，而全球卡車和拖車則下降了中個位數，原因是北美下降了約 15%。歐洲卡車和拖車上漲了中個位數，亞洲卡車和拖車上漲了 25% 以上。我們的 Sensitech 業務（提供追蹤和監控溫度的解決方案）成長了中個位數。商業冷凍年減中個位數。調整後營業利益率與去年持平。這是由業務組合抵消的有利淨價格和生產力所推動的。

Moving on to Fire & Security on Slide 12. Reported sales were down 7% with 3% organic sales growth, partially offset by a 10% headwind from the absence of one month of Access Solution and the deconsolidation of KFI in last year's second quarter.

繼續幻燈片 12 上的消防與安全。報告銷售額下降 7%，有機銷售額成長 3%，部分被 Access Solution 缺席一個月以及去年第二季 KFI 分拆帶來的 10% 阻力所抵銷。

The Residential and Commercial Fire business was up mid-single digits and is performing well. Adjusted operating margins were up a significant 310 basis points year-over-year as organic volume growth and strong productivity more than offset headwinds of the business exits. Overall, a very strong quarter for this segment.

住宅和商業消防業務成長了中個位數，並且表現良好。由於銷售的有機成長和強勁的生產力足以抵消業務退出的不利因素，調整後的營業利潤率年增 310 個基點。總體而言，該領域的季度表現非常強勁。

Turning to Slide 13. Total company orders were up about 30% in the quarter. Overall, HVAC orders were up over 40% with strength across key verticals. Within the Americas, orders were up over 70% with commercial orders up over 40% and light commercial orders about 5%. North America resi orders were up over 100% or around 60% when excluding preordering for late Q3 and Q4 deliveries this year. EMEA organic orders were up over 10% with commercial orders up over 15%. Organic resi and light commercial order intake in EMEA was down low-single digits.

轉到投影片 13。本季公司訂單總額成長約 30%。整體而言，暖通冷氣訂單成長了 40% 以上，關鍵垂直領域的訂單量均強勁。在美洲，訂單成長超過 70%，其中商業訂單成長超過 40%，輕型商業訂單成長約 5%。如果不包括今年第三季末和第四季交付的預訂，北美樹脂訂單增加了 100% 以上或 60% 左右。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機訂單成長超過 10%，其中商業訂單成長超過 15%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機樹脂和輕質商業訂單量下降了低個位數。

Within Asia, weak orders in China were only partially offset by other countries. Globally, commercial HVAC orders were up over 20% and the backlog for that business continues to grow. We booked large data center orders in all regions, positioning us for continued strong commercial HVAC growth.

在亞洲，中國訂單疲軟僅被其他國家部分抵銷。在全球範圍內，商業 HVAC 訂單成長了 20% 以上，且該業務的積壓訂單持續成長。我們在所有地區預訂了大量資料中心訂單，為我們的商業暖通空調持續強勁成長奠定了基礎。

Refrigeration orders were down over 5% in the quarter, with strength in container offsetting some weakness in North America truck trailer. As a reminder, our North America truck trailer orders were up almost 90% in last year's second quarter. Truck and trailer orders in Europe and Asia continue to be strong. Orders in our Resi and Commercial Fire business were up over 10%.

本季冷藏訂單下降超過 5%，貨櫃的強勁抵消了北美卡車拖車的部分疲軟。提醒一下，去年第二季我們的北美卡車拖車訂單增加了近 90%。歐洲和亞洲的卡車和拖車訂單持續強勁。我們的 Resi 和商業消防業務訂單成長了 10% 以上。

Turning to Slide 14, guidance. Before I get into the details, I will share that you will see in the 10-Q later today that we expect consistent with accounting rules that as we get closer to announcing a sale of the Resi and Commercial Fire business, the Fire & Security segment in aggregate, will likely be presented in discontinued operations in future quarters.

轉向幻燈片 14，指導。在詳細介紹之前，我將告訴您，您將在今天晚些時候的10 季度中看到，隨著我們越來越接近宣佈出售Resi 和商業消防業務、消防與安全部門，我們預計與會計規則保持一致總的來說，可能會在未來幾季的停產業務中反映出來。

This could happen as early as Q3, but would not apply to commercial refrigeration. We do not yet know the full impact on reported earnings from continuing operations this year, which is why our July guide is consistent with how we have been disclosing our results.

這最早可能在第三季發生，但不適用於商業冷凍。我們尚不知道今年持續經營業務對報告收益的全部影響，這就是為什麼我們 7 月的指南與我們揭露業績的方式一致。

In addition, we plan to continue to disclose actual and projected 2024 results of our core business, that is all the businesses we are keeping, including Viessmann Climate Solutions which we continue to see as the best base to project 2025 financial performance.

此外，我們計劃繼續揭露我們核心業務的實際和預計 2024 年業績，即我們保留的所有業務，包括菲斯曼氣候解決方案，我們仍然認為它是預測 2025 年財務業績的最佳基礎。

With that, let me provide our outlook for 2024. With respect to exits, our updated guide now includes commercial refrigeration for nine months compared to six months in our previous guide.

接下來，讓我來談談我們對 2024 年的展望。關於退出，我們更新的指南現在包括九個月的商業冷藏，而先前的指南中為六個月。

We now expect reported full-year sales of roughly $25.5 billion compared to a little under $26 billion in our April guide with underlying organic growth of mid-single digits remaining unchanged versus prior guide. The expected upside from our Commercial and Light Commercial HVAC businesses essentially offsets lower revenue at Viessmann Climate Solutions.

我們現在預計報告的全年銷售額約為 255 億美元，而我們 4 月份指南中的銷售額略低於 260 億美元，與之前的指南相比，中個位數的基本有機增長保持不變。我們的商業和輕型商業暖通空調業務的預期成長基本上抵消了菲斯曼氣候解決方案收入的下降。

lower residential and light commercial sales in China and a stronger foreign currency translation headwinds are only partially offset by having commercial refrigeration for another quarter, we are maintaining our adjusted operating margin guide of roughly 15.5%, maybe a little more and continue to expect full year core earnings conversion to be north of 40%.

中國住宅和輕型商業銷售的下降以及更強勁的外幣換算阻力僅被下一個季度的商業製冷所部分抵消，我們維持調整後的營業利潤率指引約15.5%，可能會更高一點，並繼續預期全年核心獲利轉換率將超過 40%。

Lower residential and light commercial sales in China and a stronger foreign currency translation headwind are only partially offset by having commercial refrigeration for another quarter. We are maintaining our adjusted operating margin guide of roughly 15.5%, maybe a little more. and continue to expect full-year core earnings conversion to be north of 40%. Interest expense is expected to be about $510 million based on the timing of the exits and redeployment of the net proceeds. The end result is that we are maintaining our adjusted EPS guide range of $2.80 to $2.90. Our free cash flow outlook remains $400 million reflecting about $2 billion of tax payment on gains from the business exits and transaction and restructuring-related cash costs. Our underlying free cash flow outlook remains $2.4 billion.

中國住宅和輕型商業銷售的下降以及外幣兌換阻力的加大僅被商業製冷另一個季度的增長所部分抵消。我們維持調整後營業利益率指引約 15.5%，甚至更高一點。並繼續預計全年核心獲利轉換率將超過 40%。根據退出時間和淨收益重新部署，利息支出預計約為 5.1 億美元。最終結果是我們維持調整後每股盈餘指引範圍 2.80 美元至 2.90 美元。我們的自由現金流前景仍為 4 億美元，反映出業務退出收益以及交易和重組相關現金成本帶來的約 20 億美元的納稅額。我們的基本自由現金流前景仍為 24 億美元。

Moving on to Slide 15, full-year adjusted EPS year-over-year guidance bridge. Adjusted EPS increases from $2.73 last year to $2.85 at the midpoint.

轉到投影片 15，全年調整後 EPS 同比指導橋。調整後每股收益從去年的 2.73 美元增加到中位數 2.85 美元。

The darker blue represents the business we are retaining, including Viessmann Climate Solutions, whereas the lighter blue represents the adjusted EPS contribution from the businesses we're exiting. You can see that the adjusted EPS from our core business is projected to be up 17% compared to last year.

深藍色代表我們保留的業務，包括菲斯曼氣候解決方案，而淺藍色代表我們正在退出的業務調整後的每股盈餘貢獻。您可以看到，我們核心業務的調整後每股盈餘預計將比去年成長 17%。

The operational contribution of $0.55 now reflects stronger business performance within our commercial and light commercial HVAC businesses as well as stronger productivity. Increased dilution from Viessmann Climate Solutions reflects lower expected sales.

0.55 美元的營運貢獻現在反映了我們的商業和輕型商業 HVAC 業務的更強勁的業務績效以及更高的生產力。菲斯曼氣候解決方案的稀釋度增加反映了預期銷售額的下降。

We updated the impact of the exits to include the net effect of losing seven months of earnings from Access Solutions, six months of earnings from industrial fire, and only three months of earnings from commercial refrigeration, all offset by net interest savings from the proceeds. There is a modest benefit from our planned $1 billion in share repurchases in the second half and the headwind from a higher year-over-year adjusted effective tax rate.

我們更新了退出的影響，包括損失 7 個月的 Access Solutions 收益、6 個月的工業火災收益以及僅 3 個月的商業製冷收益的淨影響，所有這些都被收益的淨利息節省所抵消。我們計劃在下半年進行 10 億美元的股票回購，這帶來了一定的好處，而同比調整後有效稅率的提高也帶來了阻力。

In the appendix on Slide 23, you will find a full-year adjusted EPS guide-to-guide bridge. And on Slide 24, there is a summary of additional items, which were also updated as part of the new guide.

在投影片 23 的附錄中，您將找到全年調整後的 EPS 指南橋。在投影片 24 上，有一個附加項目的摘要，這些項目也作為新指南的一部分進行了更新。

With respect to the third quarter, we expect sales of about $6.6 billion and adjusted EPS of about $0.80 including a few pennies from businesses yet to be divested, and we expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be up 500 bps compared to last year, a $0.06 headwind.

就第三季而言，我們預計銷售額約為66 億美元，調整後每股收益約為0.80 美元，其中包括尚未剝離業務的幾美分，我們預計調整後的有效稅率將比去年上升500 個基點， 0.06 美元的逆風。

In summary, a good second quarter overall and on track for another strong year. With that, we'll open it up for questions.

總而言之，第二季度整體表現良好，預計將迎來另一個強勁的一年。至此，我們將開放提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.

謝謝。（操作員說明）第一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲（Andy Kaplowitz）。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, everyone. David, I think you've been saying that as you own Bison for longer that you get more visibility expected orders and sales ramp. Obviously, you lowered your guidance for the business, but how would you characterize the new guidance. I think you're still talking about a typical seasonal pickup. Is that 20% growth off a lower base? Or do you see expectations now as more de-risked for the second half ramp?

大家，早安。大衛，我想你一直在說，隨著你擁有 Bison 的時間更長，你會獲得更多的預期訂單和銷售成長的可見性。顯然，您降低了對業務的指導，但您如何描述新的指導。我認為您仍在談論典型的季節性提貨。20% 的成長是在較低基數基礎上實現的嗎？或者您認為現在下半年的預期風險會降低嗎？

I would call it more de-risked, but it's also about 15% to 20% growth in the second half over the first half. So we had said that previously, but now we're coming off of a lower base. I think in terms of the typical seasonality, as we start getting into the heating months, we went back a number of years and that number of 15% to 20% is true almost over 90% of the time.

我認為它的風險更加降低，但下半年的成長也比上半年成長了 15% 到 20% 左右。我們之前已經說過了，但現在我們的基數較低。我認為就典型的季節性而言，當我們開始進入供暖月份時，我們可以追溯到很多年前，並且 15% 到 20% 的數字幾乎在 90% 的情況下都是正確的。

So we do think we've de-risked the forecast for the rest of the year. We do need to see this as we start thinking about '25, what we're really looking at is this inflection point. As we get closer to October, which in Germany is when the subsidies start paying back, we'd like to see orders pick up at the very end of August, leading into September and start building that orders pipeline that gives us the kind of growth that we'll expect for next year, but we do feel balanced for the revised forecast for this year.

因此，我們確實認為我們已經降低了今年剩餘時間的預測風險。當我們開始思考 25 世紀時，我們確實需要看到這一點，而我們真正關注的是這個轉折點。隨著十月的臨近，也就是德國補貼開始償還的時間，我們希望看到訂單在八月底回升，進入九月，並開始建立訂單管道，為我們帶來增長這是我們對明年的預期，但我們確實對今年修訂後的預測感到平衡。

Very helpful. And then could you give us some more color into the order trends you saw in the quarter? I know you had a relatively easy comp, and you'd already talked about some data center orders, but maybe you could talk about the inflections that you saw was the inflection bigger than you expected. Was it mostly data centers and commercial and, you know, the expected turn in Americas residential or is it more broad based? I know you've been talking about share gains. Are they actually accelerating?

很有幫助。那麼您能給我們更多關於您在本季看到的訂單趨勢的資訊嗎？我知道你有一個相對簡單的補償，並且你已經談論了一些資料中心訂單，但也許你可以談論你看到的變化比你預期的變化更大。主要是資料中心和商業，以及美國住宅的預期轉變，還是基礎更廣泛？我知道你一直在談論股票收益。他們真的在加速嗎？

Yes. We did get share in, if I think about U.S. resi, we've gotten about 120 bps of share on a 12-month roll. So to see orders up over 100% is obviously significant. But as Patrick said, if you take out orders that were a little bit beyond our lead time that go into 4Q, they still would have been up about 60%. So really good order trends that we're seeing in resi that position us well for that high-single digit, maybe 10% or so growth for this year for resi.

是的。我們確實獲得了份額，如果我考慮美國 Resi，我們在 12 個月的滾動中獲得了大約 120 個基點的份額。因此，看到訂單成長超過 100% 顯然意義重大。但正如帕特里克所說，如果你的訂單稍微超出我們進入第四季度的交貨時間，它們仍然會增長約 60%。因此，我們在 Resi 中看到的非常好的訂單趨勢使我們能夠很好地實現高個位數成長，今年 Resi 的成長可能為 10% 左右。

When we look at commercial HVAC, it was strong, particularly in the Americas and in Europe. Commercial HVAC was up over 40% in the Americas, up close to 20% in EMEA and Asia Pac it was up low-single digits. And a lot of that was data centers, but some other verticals remain strong there as well, things like higher edge and health care have been strong for us. And K-12 has been particularly strong. And that helped us in light commercial, where we saw the first positive orders there that we've seen in some time.

當我們觀察商業暖通空調時，它很強勁，特別是在美洲和歐洲。美洲的商業暖通空調 (HVAC) 成長超過 40%，歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 成長近 20%，亞太地區成長低個位數。其中許多是資料中心，但其他一些垂直領域也仍然很強大，例如更高的優勢和醫療保健對我們來說很強大。K-12 的表現尤其強勁。這對我們在輕商業領域有幫助，我們看到了一段時間以來的第一批積極訂單。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

One moment for the next question. The next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.

請稍等一下，回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeffrey Sprague。您的線路已開通。

Hey Dave. Can you just elaborate on this comment about the preorders into the back half? Is this some kind of jockeying happening, pre-buy happening on the A2L conversion or really kind of what's behind that and why you're calling that out?

嘿戴夫。能詳細說明一下有關後半部預購的評論嗎？這是某種競爭發生的情況嗎？

No, it's just because I do think our distributors are trying to figure out what they want on the shelf at the end of this year, leading into next. And with our we put in place a fairly disciplined sales process. So all that really is just talking to them about reality. What do you guys feel like you need this year and then we can plan our factories accordingly. So it's all about production planning.

不，這只是因為我確實認為我們的分銷商正在努力弄清楚他們想要在今年年底貨架上有什麼，直到明年。我們建立了相當嚴格的銷售流程。所以這一切實際上只是與他們談論現實。你們覺得今年你們需要什麼，然後我們可以相應地規劃我們的工廠。所以這一切都與生產計劃有關。

And then on the on the fire and security margins, I think obviously selling the 1L businesses, mix negative. The old has only gone for a month but that's just a surprisingly strong margin performance. And maybe you could elaborate, Patrick, on what was going on there? Or was there some one-off happening or, you know, kind of something else unusual in the quarter on F&S margins.

然後，關於防火和安全邊際，我認為顯然正在出售 1L 業務，混合負面。舊款只花了一個月，但利潤率表現卻出乎意料地強勁。派崔克，也許你可以詳細說明那裡發生了什麼事？或者是否發生了一些一次性事件，或者本季 F&S 利潤率出現了其他不尋常的情況。

In essence, it was very strong performance on both price and productivity in that segment. And so compared to last year, our margins, obviously, were significantly weaker. They were below 15%. This was just a quarter where price productivity, very strong compared to last year. We had a few negative one-offs last year. Also, of course, we're doing a lot of work related to stranded costs, some of that benefits in that segment as well.

從本質上講，該領域的價格和生產力都表現非常強勁。因此，與去年相比，我們的利潤率顯然明顯下降。他們的比例低於 15%。這只是價格生產力與去年相比非常強勁的一個季度。去年我們遇到了一些負面的一次性事件。當然，我們也做了很多與擱淺成本相關的工作，其中一些也為該領域帶來了好處。

All right. Sam must be doing a good job in his new role. I'll pass it there. Thanks.

好的。薩姆一定在他的新角色中表現出色。我會把它傳到那裡。謝謝。

Thank you, Sam.

謝謝你，山姆。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自朱利安·米切爾。您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just a first question for Patrick perhaps. I just wanted to clarify the third quarter commentary. It sounded like sort of $0.80 of earnings versus maybe we look sequentially, it's easier versus $0.87 you just printed. The revenue number sounded like it was down maybe $100 million sequentially. So, it implies a sort of a very large sequential margin drop, unless there's something moving around a lot below the line. So any sort of clarity on that, please?

早安.也許只是派崔克的第一個問題。我只是想澄清第三季的評論。聽起來像是 0.80 美元的收益，也許我們按順序查看，這比您剛剛列印的 0.87 美元更容易。營收數字聽起來比上一季下降了約 1 億美元。因此，這意味著利潤率會出現非常大的連續下降，除非有一些東西在該線下方移動很多。那麼對此有任何澄清嗎？

Yes, during a couple of comments there, the we expect margins to be down about 100 bps, maybe a little bit more in Q3 versus the versus the prior year. The we can think about it is a vision and will remain a dilutive impact and with the exits were losing about $100 million of operating profit and in tax represents about a six a penny headwind as well. And so all of that is offset by some volume pickup and in price and productivity that continues to be strong.

是的，在幾次評論中，我們預計第三季的利潤率將比去年同期下降約 100 個基點，可能會下降一些。我們可以認為這是一個願景，並且仍將產生稀釋性影響，隨著退出，我們將損失約 1 億美元的營業利潤，而且稅收也代表著每便士約 6 美元的逆風。因此，所有這些都被銷量的增加以及價格和生產力的持續強勁所抵消。

That's helpful. Thank you. And then just maybe switching back, Dave, to Viessmann. So I understand you have the second half sort of half-on-half bounce in line with normal seasonality. Just sort of following up on that, is the right way to think about it that you're assuming that year-on-year Viessmann is sort of flattish exiting this year in the fourth quarter? Just trying to understand kind of how you think it looks entering next year? And maybe I missed it, but was there an updated operating margin assumption for Viessmann for the year now?

這很有幫助。謝謝。戴夫，然後也許會切換回菲斯曼。所以我知道下半年的反彈符合正常的季節性。對此進行跟進，您假設菲斯曼今年第四季度的退出情況與去年同期持平，這是正確的思考方式嗎？只是想了解一下您認為明年的情況如何？也許我錯過了，但菲斯曼今年的營業利潤率假設有更新嗎？

Yes. I think when we look at Q4. Our expectation is we'll be flattish to Q4 of last year. It might be up 1% or so.

是的。我認為當我們看第四季時。我們的預期是與去年第四季持平。可能會上漲1%左右。

Yes, we expect Q4 sales to be flat year over year. Andy, our outlook for margins for the full year. Now, Julian, is about mid-teens for EBITDA and a few points below that for operating margin.

是的，我們預計第四季銷售額將與去年同期持平。安迪，我們對全年利潤率的展望。朱利安，現在的 EBITDA 大約是十幾歲左右，營業利潤率比這個數字低幾個百分點。

That's very helpful. Thank you for where they are.

這非常有幫助。感謝他們在哪裡。

With a better EBITDA in 4Q than 3Q as you'd expect.

正如您所期望的，第四季度的 EBITDA 比第三季更好。

Yes, the exit rate is clearly higher.

是的，退出率顯然更高。

Our next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默。您的線路已開通。

Thanks. Good to hear on the progress around resi and commercial fire divestiture. Just curious on the timing between expected agreements and the actual exit. It seems a little bit tighter than some of the divestitures that you've previously executed. So just help us understand what would kind of drive that relatively condensed time frame?.

謝謝。很高興聽到有關再生資源和商業火災剝離的進展。只是對預期協議和實際退出之間的時間感到好奇。這似乎比您之前執行的一些剝離要嚴格一些。那麼，請幫助我們了解什麼會推動相對較短的時間範圍？

Yes. And it's something we've seen similar for industrial fire.

是的。我們在工業火災中也看到類似的情況。

Yes, same amount of time we saw there.

是的，我們在那裡看到的時間相同。

That's very helpful. And then just again to clarify on the resi side with the longer lead orders. Maybe you can talk to your updated expectations around the mix of 410A versus 454 for the year. I think that would help us better understand what some of these buying dynamics look like?

這非常有幫助。然後再次澄清渣油方面的較長交貨期訂單。也許您可以談談您對今年 410A 與 454 的搭配的最新期望。我認為這將幫助我們更好地了解其中一些購買動態是什麼樣的？

Yes, we think there's going to be lower 454B this year than we had previously said. We thought it could be closer to 20%. I think it's going to be less than 10%, maybe closer to 5% this year. I don't think a lot of our distributors and dealers are in a major rush to put in the 454B. We have our initial units out there. We're starting with the residential new construction piece because they're not going to want mixed developments. But we think that as you get into next year, it's probably closer to 80% will be maybe a bit more than that 454B, but probably only about 5% this year.

是的，我們認為今年 454B 的數量會比我們之前所說的要低。我們認為可能會接近 20%。我認為今年會低於 10%，可能接近 5%。我不認為我們的許多經銷商和經銷商都急於購買 454B。我們已經有了最初的單位。我們從住宅新建案開始，因為他們不想要混合開發。但我們認為，進入明年，可能會接近 80%，可能會比 454B 多一點，但今年可能只有 5% 左右。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

And the next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。您的線路已開通。

Hey Dave, it's really encouraging to see that progress with the data center orders. And so maybe talk a little bit more about what's driving that progress. And then secondly, I know that you're planning to increase your North America content as well to sell into that vertical. And so just any update on that would be helpful.

嘿戴夫，看到數據中心訂單的進展真是令人鼓舞。因此，也許可以多談談推動這項進步的因素。其次，我知道您還計劃增加北美內容並銷售到該垂直領域。因此，任何有關這方面的更新都會有所幫助。

Sure. I mean we are very enthusiastic about the data center opportunity. It's actually the first time that we put together an entire program team led by Christian Sanu (ph) here with a dedicated team focused just on this vertical, whether it's operations, technical, aftermarket support, everything we need to do to not only secure the orders, but then equally, if not more importantly, is support our customers. So we had a big order in 2Q that we had mentioned and with the same customer, they actually ended up adding a bit more to it. We are in discussions with the other hyperscalers and colos. We have the technical offerings that we're very encouraged by and our customers are very encouraged by.

當然。我的意思是我們對資料中心的機會非常熱情。這實際上是我們第一次組建由Christian Sanu（博士）領導的整個專案團隊，以及一個專注於這個垂直領域的專門團隊，無論是營運、技術、售後支持，還是我們需要做的一切，不僅是為了確保訂單，但同樣地（如果不是更重要的話）是支持我們的客戶。因此，我們在第二季度收到了一個大訂單，我們已經提到過，對於同一個客戶，他們實際上最終增加了一些訂單。我們正在與其他超大規模提供者和託管商進行討論。我們所提供的科技產品令我們深受鼓舞，我們的客戶也深受鼓舞。

I can tell you for one customer, they gave us some technical requirements that we beat. They gave us more significant technical requirements, which we then beat again. So technically, I couldn't be more proud of our engineering team and operationally, we're ramping up.

我可以告訴你一位客戶，他們給了我們一些技術要求，但我們滿足了。他們向我們提出了更重要的技術要求，然後我們再次擊敗了他們。因此，在技術上，我為我們的工程團隊感到無比自豪，在營運上，我們正​​在不斷進步。

We have facilities in Asia and Europe. Here in the United States, we're going to put max capacity into our Charlotte, North Carolina facility, adding capacity, multiple shifts to that. And we're building out our Mexico facility to add both air cooled and water cool chiller capacity there.

我們在亞洲和歐洲設有工廠。在美國，我們將在北卡羅來納州夏洛特的工廠投入最大產能，增加產能，並進行多次班次。我們正在建造墨西哥工廠，以增加風冷和水冷冷水機組的容量。

So a really exciting opportunity here. We're going to win more than our fair share. And then excitingly, we're starting to build up our whole aftermarket strategy with a very unique dedicated aftermarket offering that we're going to be offering to these critical customers.

這是一個非常令人興奮的機會。我們將贏得比我們應得的更多的份額。然後令人興奮的是，我們開始建立我們的整個售後市場策略，為這些關鍵客戶提供非常獨特的專用售後市場產品。

Yes, that's all really great to hear. I guess my follow-up question, Patrick, I don't know if I missed it earlier, but did you guys give an update to your light commercial expectations for the year? And then given that orders have kind of turned positive in that business, are you guys feeling better about that business more broadly. I know there's been some concern that you see that business start to fall off a little bit.

是的，聽到這些真是太好了。我想我的後續問題是，帕特里克，我不知道我之前是否錯過了，但是你們對今年的輕商業預期有更新嗎？鑑於該業務的訂單有所轉好，你們對更廣泛的業務感覺更好嗎？我知道有人擔心您的業務開始略有下降。

Yes, Patrick and I are pointing at each other who takes it. We feel good about light commercial. I mean, we tend to -- my experience over the last two years is we tend to beat what we say we're going to do. But look, in the first quarter, we were up 20%. In the second quarter, we were up 10%. On the full-year, we're saying up low-single-digits. I think we came into the year saying down mid or so. So I think we're balanced in the second half.

是的，帕特里克和我正在互相指著誰拿走了它。我們對輕商業感覺良好。我的意思是，我們傾向於——我過去兩年的經驗是，我們傾向於超越我們所說的要做的事情。但看，第一季度，我們成長了 20%。第二季度，我們成長了 10%。就全年而言，我們所說的是低個位數的成長。我認為我們在今年中期左右就出現了下滑。所以我認為我們在下半場保持平衡。

The verticals that have been good remain good. K-12 is still a unique opportunity. Some of the value-based retail, health care, quick-serve restaurants are still good. We see things that are soft, continue to be soft like warehouse and office space. So it's an area that we've had great technical offerings, great share gains over time.

曾經表現良好的垂直領域仍然表現良好。K-12 仍然是一個獨特的機會。一些基於價值的零售、醫療保健、快餐店仍然不錯。我們看到的東西是軟的，而且會繼續變得柔軟，例如倉庫和辦公空間。因此，我們在這個領域提供了出色的技術產品，隨著時間的推移，我們的份額也獲得了巨大的成長。

The team is performing well. We think we're calibrated for the year instead of low-single-digits, could it be up mid perhaps we'll have to see how it plays out. But continued strength, and I was happy to see that we had positive orders in the quarter. Our orders in Q2 where the first positive orders quarter we've had in something like five quarters, which was up about 5%, which was encouraging.

球隊表現良好。我們認為我們已經針對今年進行了校準，而不是低個位數，可能會上升到中期，也許我們必須看看結果如何。但持續強勁，我很高興看到我們在本季度獲得了積極的訂單。我們第二季度的訂單是大約五個季度以來的第一個正訂單季度，成長了約 5%，這令人鼓舞。

And compared to the prior guide, Joe, the swing in revenue for light commercial was a little less than $100 million. So from down low single-digit prior guide to now up low-single-digits. So it's a big swing that helps offset some other areas.

與先前的指南 Joe 相比，輕型商業廣告的收入波動略低於 1 億美元。因此，從先前的低個位數指引到現在的低個位數指引。因此，這是一個巨大的波動，有助於抵消其他一些領域的影響。

Nice, thanks guys.

很好，謝謝大家。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

And the next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。您的線路已開通。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the orders that says quite eye-popping growth.

謝謝。大家早安，恭喜訂單成長令人瞠目結舌。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the orders. That's quite eye-popping growth. Just Patrick, I thought maybe a few more details perhaps on sort of the second half on that 3Q margin, I think you said 100 basis points lower Q-over-Q. Maybe just some color on the HVAC margins because that's obviously been very strong. And then on the Viessmann second half, it looks like the exit rate implies maybe down 20% in 3Q. I just want to make sure that's correct with EBITDA for the full-year of about 550, I just want to make sure we've got those right.

謝謝。大家，早安。恭喜您獲得訂單。這是相當令人瞠目結舌的成長。派崔克，我想也許有更多關於下半年第三季利潤率的細節，我想你說環比下降了 100 個基點。也許只是暖通空調邊緣的一些顏色，因為這顯然非常強烈。然後在菲斯曼下半年，退出率似乎意味著第三季可能下降 20%。我只是想確保全年的 EBITDA 約為 550 是正確的，我只是想確保我們的數據是正確的。

Yes, I'll start with the second part of your question, Nigel. So your EBITDA number is in the ballpark for VCS for the full-year. And we do expect Q3 sales to be down high teens and then Q4 to be about flat year-over-year from a revenue growth point of view for Viessmann Climate Solutions. In terms of margins for the third quarter, and I think you were specifically about HVAC.

是的，我將從你問題的第二部分開始，奈傑爾。因此，您的 EBITDA 數字在 VCS 全年的大致範圍內。從菲斯曼氣候解決方案的營收成長角度來看，我們確實預計第三季銷售額將下降十多歲，然後第四季將與去年同期持平。就第三季的利潤率而言，我認為您特別關注暖通空調。

We continue to see strong productivity that's almost over 150 bps of margin. The VCS acquisition, however, offsets that. And besides that, we see some larger investments and some currency that take us about to 100 bps lower margin for HVAC year-over-year in Q3.

我們繼續看到強勁的生產力，利潤率幾乎超過 150 個基點。然而，VCS 的收購抵消了這一點。除此之外，我們看到一些較大的投資和一些貨幣使我們第三季 HVAC 的利潤率年減約 100 個基點。

Okay. Thanks, David. And then my fourth question, sorry. I'm sorry. On the second half -- I didn't mean to interrupt you, Dave, sorry about that. Follow-up question is really around the order strength in HVAC. It does look like there's a prebuy building here in the fourth quarter. It seems like distributors want to have the 410A products, which implies a prebuy. So just wondering sort of like maybe just some more color in terms of like what you're hearing from the channel because it does feel given that one year kind of install window that there should be a fairly meaningful pre-buy here. Just curious on your thoughts there.

好的。謝謝，大衛。然後是我的第四個問題，抱歉。對不起。下半場——戴夫，我不是故意打斷你的，對此感到抱歉。後續問題其實是圍繞在暖通空調領域的訂單強度展開的。看起來第四季這裡確實有一棟預購建築。經銷商似乎想要擁有410A產品，這意味著預購。因此，我只是想知道，也許只是像您從頻道中聽到的那樣，有更多的色彩，因為考慮到一年的安裝窗口，確實感覺這裡應該有一個相當有意義的預購。只是好奇你的想法。

Yes, just Nigel, just not clear how much yet. I think will the distributors go into next year with 410 on the shelf for sure. Exactly how much I think at the end of the day, it won't be that material to either this year or next year. But I do think they're starting to figure out exactly how much do they want going into next year because I think they know and the end customers know that it's going to be a 10% -- just 10% to 15% base price increase. But at the end of the day, with the guide that we've given for today, it assumes just a very modest prebuy.

是的，只是奈傑爾，只是還不清楚多少錢。我認為明年經銷商肯定會帶著 410 上架。我到底想了多少，對於今年或明年都不會那麼重要。但我確實認為他們開始弄清楚明年到底想要多少，因為我認為他們知道，最終客戶也知道基礎價格將上漲 10%——僅 10% 至 15% 。但歸根結底，根據我們今天給出的指南，它只假設了非常適度的預購。

Okay, thanks Dave. That's helpful.

好的，謝謝戴夫。這很有幫助。

Thanks, Nigel.

謝謝，奈傑爾。

The next question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自湯米·莫爾和史蒂芬斯。您的線路已開通。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. A ton of money from Dave, a couple of follow-ups there on a two. Well, can you correct me if I'm wrong here, you just mentioned a 10% to 15% base price increase, but I think that that continues to sync up well, with the 15% to 20% cumulative increase you've you've talked to before. Correct?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。戴夫給了我一大筆錢，還有兩個人的後續行動。好吧，如果我錯了，你能糾正我嗎？正確的？

That's correct, Tommy. Yes, 15% to 20% over two years. Now that 15% to 20% includes our annual price increase, call it, a few percent a year. So the best -- the rest of that would be just the base price increase on the 454B, which is appropriate. I think that we're doing it. I know it seems like I've heard that just in these public calls that our peers are doing it, and it just seems like it's appropriate and that it will stick.

是的，湯米。是的，兩年內成長 15% 到 20%。現在 15% 到 20% 包括我們每年的價格上漲，可以稱之為每年幾個百分點。所以最好的——剩下的就是 454B 的基本價格上漲，這是合適的。我認為我們正在這樣做。我知道，我似乎聽說，在這些公開呼籲中，我們的同行正在這樣做，而且它似乎是合適的，並且會堅持下去。

Thank you. Follow-up question for you on the repurchase. With the sizable $1 billion you've now announced for the second half, you've got good visibility to closing the last divestiture by the end of the year. Without putting an exact time line around it, my question is, is it reasonable to think that if all goes according to plan by the end of next year, all of the Viessmann dilutive shares could be taken back out of the float. Is that a reasonable bogey?

謝謝。關於回購的後續問題。憑藉您現在宣布的下半年 10 億美元的巨額資金，您對在年底前完成最後一次資產剝離具有良好的預見性。在沒有給出確切的時間表的情況下，我的問題是，如果到明年年底一切按計劃進行，菲斯曼的所有稀釋性股票都可以從流通中收回，這樣的想法是否合理。這是一個合理的柏忌嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. Thank you, and I'll turn it back.

偉大的。謝謝你，我會把它轉回來。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

And our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Jeff Hammond。您的線路現已開通。

Hey, good morning, guys. Gentlemen, I just wanted to come back to like the organic growth bridge in HVAC. in a lot of good numbers, but maybe the whole is the weakness you've seen in China and Europe. So maybe maybe if you can bridge that and then just talk about what do you see for our visibility in those markets going forward?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。先生們，我只是想回來喜歡暖通空調領域的有機成長橋。有很多不錯的數字，但也許全部都是你在中國和歐洲看到的弱點。那麼也許您可以彌補這一點，然後談談您對我們未來在這些市場的知名度有何看法？

Yes. If I look at the second quarter growth for HVAC, as I mentioned, I think in my comments, the Americas continued to do quite well with mid-single-digit growth. With the strongest growth there in light commercial and then in commercial HVAC. In EMEA, the growth is a little bit lower, and it's low-single-digits there. And then you have two phenomena: Commercial HVAC, also driven by data centers continues to grow pretty well, mid-teens year-over-year. And then residential and light commercial. And obviously, we see that more broadly in Europe. Residential and light commercial, where we have a business that counts towards organic is down mid-teens.

是的。如果我看看暖通空調第二季度的成長，正如我在評論中提到的，我認為美洲繼續表現良好，實現了中個位數的成長。輕型商業成長最強勁，然後是商業暖通空調。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，成長率稍低一些，且為低個位數。然後你會看到兩個現象：同樣由資料中心驅動的商業暖通空調持續成長得相當好，年同比成長在十幾歲左右。然後是住宅和輕商業。顯然，我們在歐洲更廣泛地看到了這一點。我們在住宅和輕商業領域的有機業務下降了十幾歲。

And so that's kind of the dichotomy there in that region. And then Asia-Pacific, frankly is very much all about China, where China is down about mid-teens, and that's a reflection of what we see there in the broader market, including in residential and light commercial. So that's kind of an overview that of overall HVAC organic growth by region in Q2. And we expect that, of course, to pick up in the second half of the year. As we expect resi growth rates to pick up, we think the Americas will be up double-digits in the second half. EMEA and Asia-Pacific both expect to be up about high single digits in the second half of the year.

這就是該地區存在的二分法。然後，坦白說，亞太地區主要與中國有關，中國的下降幅度約為十幾歲，這反映了我們在更廣泛的市場（包括住宅和輕商業市場）中看到的情況。這是第二季各地區暖通空調整體有機成長的概述。當然，我們預計這一情況會在今年下半年有所回升。由於我們預計再生能源成長率將回升，我們認為美洲地區下半年將達到兩位數成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區和亞太地區預計今年下半年的成長率將達到高個位數。

Excuse me. It does look like that participant tend to last some want to move on to the next question.

打擾一下。看起來該參與者確實傾向於持續一些想要繼續下一個問題的情況。

We can move on.

我們可以繼續前進。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。您的線路已開通。

Good Morning.

早安.

Just a question. I mean, clearly, data centers are making an impact. Just can you just talk to us as a data center technology evolves, right? We're sort of hearing a lot that some technology changes, sort of air cooled versus water cool centrifugal versus scroll. Can you just sort of elaborate a little bit where do you think technology is going long-term? And what products do you have right now? And you talked about adding capacity, what are the products that you're targeting to add capacity in the data center vertical? Thank you.

就一個問題。我的意思是，很明顯，資料中心正在產生影響。隨著資料中心技術的發展，您可以和我們談談嗎？我們聽說很多技術發生了變化，例如風冷與水冷、離心與渦旋。能否詳細說明您認為科技的長期發展方向？你們現在有什麼產品？您談到了增加容量，您的目標是增加資料中心垂直領域容量的產品是什麼？謝謝。

Yes. For almost the entirety of the market, depending on -- regardless of what hyperscaler or colo you're talking about, we have the technology. We have a really broad range of offerings both on water cool in Europe and a little bit more on the air cooled side. But when you look at chillers, we have the technology, and we're adding capacity for both water cooled and air cooled in places like Charlotte and in Mexico to support the customers.

是的。對於幾乎整個市場，無論您談論的是哪種超大規模或託管，我們都擁有技術。我們在歐洲提供非常廣泛的水冷產品和更多的風冷產品。但當你看看冷水機時，我們擁有技術，並且我們正在夏洛特和墨西哥等地增加水冷和風冷的容量，以支持客戶。

I think longer term, what you're looking at is going to be the need for more liquid cooling. So we're in the middle of development for CDUs, coolant distribution units. We have a lot of the capabilities in-house to do many elements of the CDUs and also the air assisted liquid cooling units. We can do those as well. And we're offering some level of hybrid offerings between traditional and liquid cooling for customers today.

我認為從長遠來看，您所看到的將是對更多液體冷卻的需求。因此，我們正在開發 CDU（冷卻液分配裝置）。我們擁有大量內部能力來完成 CDU 的許多元件以及空氣輔助液體冷卻裝置。我們也可以做到這些。如今，我們正在為客戶提供一定程度的傳統冷卻和液體冷卻混合產品。

And in terms of future direct to chip, we have partnership with STL, we have an investment. We're working closely with them. That's a really impressive startup that has a number of former Dell employees that we're working with. And we're also doing a lot of organic development in-house on liquid cooling. But liquid cooling is not a replacement, it's an and. And I think that combination is going to play right to our strengths..

在未來直接晶片方面，我們與STL有合作關係，我們有投資。我們正在與他們密切合作。這是一家非常令人印象深刻的新創公司，我們正在與許多前戴爾員工合作。我們還在液體冷卻方面進行了大量內部有機開發。但液體冷卻並不是替代品，而是一種共存。我認為這種組合將充分發揮我們的優勢。

Thank you. And just from a regulatory standpoint, [indiscernible] is running out. Where are we in terms of sort of your customers still applying for funding before the deadline? And when do you think we're finally going to start running into tougher comps in education?

謝謝。僅從監管的角度來看，[音訊不清晰] 已經用完了。就您仍在截止日期前申請資金的客戶而言，我們處於什麼位置？您認為我們什麼時候最終會開始在教育領域遇到更艱難的競爭？

Well, it's hard to say because as of right now, the funds need to be committed by September of this year, but there's still $40 billion remaining on $190 billion. So we do know that many have applied for extensions to that. And then the funding itself under the current legislation has to be spent by March of 2026.

嗯，這很難說，因為截至目前，資金需要在今年 9 月之前承諾，但 1,900 億美元還剩下 400 億美元。所以我們確實知道許多人已經申請延期。現行立法規定的資金本身必須在 2026 年 3 月之前用完。

So we still have some time. And we know that there's 30 or so states that have applied for extensions to be able to spend that money well after March of 2026. So this has been a really strong vertical for us. We continue to see strength in orders. There's a lot of funding to be spent. Probably an extension on the front end and probably an extension on the back end.

所以我們還有一些時間。我們知道大約有 30 個州已經申請延期，以便能夠在 2026 年 3 月之後很久就使用這筆錢。所以這對我們來說是一個非常強大的垂直領域。我們繼續看到訂單強勁。有大量資金需要花費。可能是前端的擴展，也可能是後端的擴展。

Great. Thanks so much

偉大的。非常感謝

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。您的線路已開通。

I wanted to come back to pricing. So you're seeing some puts and takes in some of the metals trends, nonmaterial inflation probably still higher. Is there a need to go back out this year with price? Or are you pretty well set both in HVAC and the other businesses?

我想回到定價問題上來。因此，您會看到一些金屬趨勢的看跌期權和買入選擇權，非物質通膨可能還會更高。今年有必要重新漲價嗎？或者您在暖通空調和其他業務方面都非常擅長？

I think we're pretty much that they're part of our business where we do annual price increases. And if needed, we do more. That's more on the resi side. I don't expect anything there at this point this year. On different parts of the business like commercial HVAC, where they're really project-by-project, the pricing can be a little bit more dynamic.

我認為它們幾乎是我們業務的一部分，我們每年都會提價。如果需要，我們會做得更多。更多的是在樹脂方面。我預計今年此時不會有任何事。在商業暖通空調等業務的不同部分，它們實際上是逐個項目的，定價可能會更加動態。

You were mentioning on the commodities, obviously, we've seen copper run up a little bit earlier this year, but it's come down quite a bit. So still probably a few pennies of a headwind compared to prior guide, but we are absorbing that with other parts of our business.

你提到了大宗商品，顯然，今年早些時候我們看到銅價上漲了一點，但現在已經下跌了很多。因此，與先前的指南相比，可能仍然存在一些阻力，但我們正在將其與我們業務的其他部分結合。

All right. Great. Got it. And then just thinking about the divestitures, I guess, as you guys look to disentangle these businesses upon close. Is there anything to think about in terms of stranded costs or excess that needs to get worked down? And then maybe what are some of the actions you're taking there?

好的。偉大的。知道了。我想，然後只是考慮剝離，因為你們希望在關閉時剝離這些業務。在滯留成本或需要降低的過剩成本方面是否有什麼需要考慮的？那麼您可能正在採取哪些行動？

Yes. So you're absolutely right. And so we're very focused on ensuring we eliminate any of these stranded costs and you may recall that earlier this year, I think at the February call, we mentioned that we proactively executed an $80 million cost reduction program to get ahead of it.

是的。所以你是完全正確的。因此，我們非常注重確保消除任何這些擱淺成本，您可能還記得，今年早些時候，我想在2 月份的電話會議上，我們提到我們主動執行了一項8000 萬美元的成本削減計劃，以提前實現這一目標。

That is all happening. We're doing additional actions on top of that. Some of that, you see, of course, already reflected in our margins before some of these businesses exit, but it is absolutely our intention to ensure that our overhead structure is aligned with a simpler, more focused company that we're basically transforming into. It also means that G&A will be less than '24 and beyond than it was, say, in '20 and '21. And so the S maybe up, but the G&A, we expect to be lower, and that's where we're heading.

這一切都在發生。除此之外，我們正在採取其他行動。當然，你會看到，其中一些在某些業務退出之前就已經反映在我們的利潤中，但我們的目的絕對是確保我們的管理結構與我們基本上轉型為的更簡單、更專注的公司保持一致。這也意味著 G&A 將低於 24 年，甚至比 20 年和 21 年還要長。因此，S 值可能會上升，但我們預計 G&A 會降低，這就是我們的目標。

Alright. Best of luck.

好吧。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Could we just get a little more info, so these resi orders are huge. How do you, A, I would assume July is looking pretty good as well. I've heard that the cutoff date kind of extended a bit into July. Maybe the cutoff date was June 30, I'm not sure. But maybe like what do you see from orders and sales perspective for resi in Q3 and Q4 given these like still pretty gigantic orders even without the preordering.

我們能否獲得更多信息，所以這些樹脂訂單量很大。你覺得怎麼樣，A，我想七月看起來也不錯。我聽說截止日期有點延長到七月了。也許截止日期是 6 月 30 日，我不確定。但也許你從第三季和第四季的樹脂訂單和銷售角度看到了什麼，因為即使沒有預購，這些訂單仍然相當巨大。

Yes. We don't have a cutoff date, Steve. So we haven't formally said that you can no longer order 410A past a certain date. What we did is we just asked our distributors, look, we got to get a sense of how you're thinking about how much 410A you want for the year.

是的。我們沒有截止日期，史蒂夫。因此，我們尚未正式表示超過特定日期您將無法再訂購 410A。我們所做的就是詢問我們的經銷商，看，我們必須了解您如何考慮今年需要多少 410A。

So please start giving us a sense of that. So I would tell you the orders surprised us. They worked very strong in Q2, I think what we said is if you take out the orders that we got for 4Q that normally would have come later in Q3, they were still up 60%.

所以請開始讓我們了解一下。所以我想告訴你，這些訂單讓我們感到驚訝。他們在第二季度表現非常強勁，我認為我們所說的是，如果你把我們在第四季度收到的訂單（通常會在第三季度晚些時候收到）拿出來，他們仍然增長了60 %。

Now I will tell you that when we look at the second half of the year, we are very well booked for the second half of the year on the resi side. So if you look at the sales guide up high-single-digits, we have an easy compare as we get into Q4, but we still see very strong growth as we get into sales in Q4, partly because of the order book, partly because the inventory levels out there are very low.

現在我會告訴你，當我們看下半年時，我們下半年的 Resi 方面的預訂非常充足。因此，如果您查看高個位數的銷售指南，我們在進入第四季度時可以輕鬆進行比較，但隨著第四季度的銷售，我們仍然看到非常強勁的增長，部分原因是訂單，部分原因是那裡的庫存水準非常低。

They're down a little over 10% year-over-year. And it's nice to see sell-in, sell-out is about equal. So any kind of debate over destocking, we feel confident that's behind us.

年比下降略高於 10%。很高興看到售入和售出大致相等。因此，我們相信任何關於去庫存的爭論都已經過去了。

And I would say on the 454-B side, the team has done a great job de-risking that. I would say by the end of the third quarter, we will have produced our first units for every single model that we have. So we've tried to get very much out in front of that, but there has been a lot of strength. I'm sure weather helped a bit, but very good strength in orders here in Q2.

我想說，在 454-B 方面，團隊在降低風險方面做得非常出色。我想說，到第三季末，我們將為我們擁有的每個型號生產第一批產品。因此，我們已經盡力做到這一點，但我們已經發揮了很大的力量。我確信天氣有所幫助，但第二季的訂單非常強勁。

So you said up high singles for the year for resi, basically and then we can kind of figure out the comps for 2Q and 3Q. Is that right?

所以你說今年 Resi 的單曲很高，基本上然後我們就可以計算出第二季和第三季的比較。是對的嗎？

Yes. That's what we said for the year. It's much higher in 4Q year-over-year than in 3Q. It's probably very strong multi-double-digit growth in 4Q and probably high-single-digit in 3Q. But I would say, Steve, the high-single-digits, if it's not 8% or 9%, it could be 10%, there's just a lot of strength in the system, and we're going to have to see how the second half plays out. But yes, as you said, July has been good.

是的。這就是我們今年所說的。第四季年比遠高於第三季。第四季可能會出現非常強勁的兩位數成長，第三季可能會出現高個位數成長。但我想說，史蒂夫，高個位數，如果不是 8% 或 9%，也可能是 10%，系統中的力量非常強大，我們將不得不看看如何在下半場比賽結束。但是，是的，正如你所說，七月過得很好。

And then just one on the data center stuff. What percentage now do you expect it to be a sales exiting the year? And where are we, do you think, in the continuum of like the pipeline you see building, like your orders are obviously up a lot. If the total is up that much.

然後是關於資料中心的內容。現在您預計今年的銷售額百分比是多少？您認為我們在哪裡，在您看到的管道建設的連續體中，就像您的訂單明顯增加了很多。如果總數漲這麼多的話。

The orders are obviously up a lot, how much or just give us context around the order growth versus the pipeline growth and the timing of those orders you expect to come out of the pipeline, like where are we in a baseball analogy, what inning are we in on that?

訂單顯然增加了很多，或者只是為我們提供了訂單增長與管道增長的背景信息，以及您期望從管道中發出的訂單的時間，就像在棒球類比中我們在哪裡，哪一局是我們參與其中嗎？

Yes. Let me take the first one first, which is you can think about it, if you think about our new portfolio after we've completed our divestitures, overall commercial HVAC is about 25% of Carrier NewCo, and data centers are a little over 10% of that today. Next year, it's going to be closer to 15% on a higher base. So the absolute value, of course of data centers is increasing exponentially. If you look at orders this year, we have more orders for data centers through the first half than we had for all of last year.

是的。讓我先說第一個，你可以想一想，如果你想想我們完成資產剝離後的新投資組合，整個商業暖通空調大約佔 Carrier NewCo 的 25%，數據中心略高於 10%。今天的百分比。明年，這一數字將在更高的基礎上接近 15%。因此，資料中心的絕對價值當然正在呈指數級增長。如果你看看今年的訂單，你會發現上半年我們的資料中心訂單比去年全年都要多。

So our bookings have been very strong as we enter 2025, we should go into next year with an extremely strong backlog on commercial HVAC overall. It would be next year would be our fifth year in a row of double-digit CHVAC growth, and a lot of that is coming from data centers. When we get the question on how long can this continue? We're in the very, very early innings. I mean I think if you think about the hyperscalers, we've had some great wins, but we are currently bidding on a whole lot more. So I don't know if we're in the first or second inning, but it's certainly not the fourth.

因此，隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們的預訂量非常強勁，明年我們的商用暖通空調整體積壓量應該會非常大。明年將是我們 CHVAC 連續第五年實現兩位數成長，其中很大一部分來自資料中心。當我們被問到這種情況還能持續多久時？我們正處於非常非常早的幾局。我的意思是，我認為如果你考慮一下超大規模企業，我們已經取得了一些巨大的勝利，但我們目前正在競價更多。所以我不知道我們是在第一局還是第二局，但肯定不是第四局。

And if you think out many years, the aftermarket is going to be significant. If you think about a typical building having three water cooled chillers in it, and now we may have data centers with 80, you think about failure is not an option. They can have no downtime. We're looking at really hyperscale type agreements with parts, with real-time monitoring, technicians on site. So we're thinking about solutions for our hyperscale customers that are very unique that should position us for growth for many years after the initial sales.

如果你考慮多年，售後市場將會非常重要。如果您考慮一棟典型的建築物內有 3 台水冷式冷水機，而現在我們的資料中心可能有 80 台，您就會認為故障不是一種選擇。他們可以沒有停機時間。我們正在研究真正的超大規模類型協議，包括零件、即時監控和現場技術人員。因此，我們正在考慮為我們的超大規模客戶提供非常獨特的解決方案，這將使我們在初始銷售後的許多年中都能成長。

Great. Tom, thanks a lot for the color.

偉大的。湯姆，非常感謝你的顏色。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

And the next question comes from Sahil Manocha with RBC. Your line is now open.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Sahil Manocha。您的線路現已開通。

Thanks. Hey, good morning. It's actually it's Deane Dray, I might say. And can I add my congrats to Sam?

謝謝。嗨，早安。我可能會說，實際上是迪恩·德雷。我可以向 Sam 表示祝賀嗎？

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

All right. Dave, a couple of moving pieces in the competitive landscape recently. You've got Bosch now as a competitor and Lennox announced saying this JV with Samsung with a focus on heat pumps. Any changes at the margin that you see competitively on these moves?

好的。戴夫（Dave），最近在競爭格局中發生了一些變化。現在博世已經成為競爭對手，Lennox 宣布與三星建立合資企業，專注於熱泵。您認為這些措施的競爭力有什麼改變嗎？

No, all good competitors, and I don't see any material change to the landscape. Bosch buying JCI's business, Bosch is a great competitor. They're a rational competitor. So we don't see any concerns or issues there? And then in terms of the Lennox, Samsung partnership focus on (inaudible) and heat pumps, that's a nice combination and both are great competitors. So we don't see a change there.

不，都是優秀的競爭對手，而且我沒有看到情況有任何實質變化。博世收購JCI的業務，博世是個很大的競爭對手。他們是理性的競爭者。那麼我們沒有看到任何擔憂或問題嗎？然後就 Lennox 而言，三星合作夥伴重點關注（聽不清楚）和熱泵，這是一個很好的組合，兩者都是偉大的競爭對手。所以我們沒有看到任何變化。

I could tell you, I could not be more proud of our resi team. The margins have been great. The growth has been great. The share gains have been great, the new technology, de-risking the 454-B transition, introducing differentiated products. So I love our team. I love the way they're performing, and we have great competitors, and I don't see any real change to that.

我可以告訴你，我為我們的 Resi 團隊感到無比自豪。利潤空間很大。增長是巨大的。新技術降低了 454-B 過渡的風險，推出了差異化產品，份額收益巨大。所以我愛我們的團隊。我喜歡他們的表現方式，而且我們有強大的競爭對手，我認為這不會有任何真正的改變。

All good to hear there. And then any update on the mega projects, just kind of line of sight, bid activity, any color there would be helpful.

很高興聽到那裡的消息。然後關於大型專案的任何更新，只是視線、投標活動、任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. We talk a lot about data centers. But between the CHIPS Act and some of these mega projects, we're positioned very well there. I mentioned that dedicated program team. It's not just data centers. It also includes the mega projects. And so our sales force, we have dedicated folks focused on the hyperscalers, the colos and the mega projects. We've had some very important activity in the bid process with some major ones. We've had some key wins as well, and we'll continue at that one. And hopefully, more to announce there, but the team is working it very well.

是的。我們談了很多關於資料中心的話題。但在《CHIPS 法案》和其中一些大型項目之間，我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置。我提到了專門的專案團隊。這不僅僅是數據中心。它還包括大型項目。因此，我們的銷售團隊有專職人員專注於超大規模、託管和大型專案。我們在投標過程中進行了一些非常重要的活動，其中包括一些重大活動。我們也取得了一些關鍵的勝利，我們將繼續這場勝利。希望那裡還有更多的消息要宣布，但團隊運作得很好。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

And our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with Cowen. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自高塔姆·卡納和考恩。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I had a couple of quick ones. First, any evidence of trade downs by consumers opting for repair over replacement, Lennox made a remark about that yesterday.

我有幾個快速的。首先，倫諾克斯昨天對此發表了評論，有任何證據表明消費者選擇維修而不是更換而進行了折價購買。

Now we have not seen, we watch it super carefully, and we have not seen customers opting to repair instead of replaced, no real material trend there.

現在我們還沒有看到，我們非常仔細地觀察它，我們還沒有看到客戶選擇修理而不是更換，那裡沒有真正的材料趨勢。

Okay. And maybe you covered this and I joined late, the VCS kind of maybe the components, what you're seeing between the various business lines you mentioned what's going on in Germany, but in the other product lines, just broadly outside of heat pumps, what you're seeing what are your expectations?

好的。也許你談到了這一點，我加入得很晚，VCS 可能是組件，你在不同的業務線之間看到的，你提到了德國正在發生的事情，但在其他產品線中，大致在熱泵之外，你所看到的是什麼，你的期望是什麼？

Yes. I mean I think what we've been seeing is heat pumps has been down quite a bit year-over-year, if we look at 2Q, we start to see a recovery as we get into 4Q on heat pumps, but boilers has been down quite a bit, too, which has been a bit of surprising.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們看到的是熱泵同比下降了很多，如果我們看第二季度，當我們進入第四季度熱泵時我們開始看到復甦，但鍋爐一直在下降。 ，這有點令人驚訝。

I think the big one, which is probably kind of good news, bad news is that we don't want to see solar PV down, but that's been down the most. So that was down something like 60% in Q2, it's probably down around 40% for the full-year. And again, that comes with lower margins and things like heat pumps and boilers. So we're not thrilled about it, but we'd rather have that be down than some of the higher-margin heat pumps and boilers.

我認為最大的一個，這可能是好消息，壞消息是我們不希望看到太陽能光電發電下降，但這是下降最嚴重的。第二季下降了 60% 左右，全年可能下降 40% 左右。再說一次，這會帶來較低的利潤以及熱泵和鍋爐等產品。所以我們對此並不感到興奮，但我們寧願讓它下降，而不是一些利潤較高的熱泵和鍋爐。

Now the good news is that Thomas and the team have been driving mid-teen aftermarket growth, both in Q1 and Q2. So I have to give that team credit. It's always easy to show leadership when you have huge market tailwind. Leadership really steps up when markets turn against you for a short period of time. And that's what we've seen.

現在的好消息是，湯瑪斯和他的團隊在第一季和第二季一直在推動青少年售後市場的成長。所以我必須給予這個團隊信任。當你擁有巨大的市場順風時，表現出領導力總是很容易的。當市場短期內對你不利時，領導力確實會增強。這就是我們所看到的。

But Thomas has been in that team, controlling the controllables, driving aftermarket growth, taking costs out, revenue synergies, that will end up being in the hundreds of billions of dollar range. So the uniqueness of this combination are going to withstand the test of time.

但湯瑪斯一直在這個團隊中，控制可控因素，推動售後市場成長，降低成本，實現收入綜效，最終將達到數千億美元。因此，這種組合的獨特性將經受時間的考驗。

So is it the right company, the right market, the right combination to be sure, and we're taking the challenges we see in the market head-on this year. And we're going to be very poised for growth as we come out of this year. So we'll take our medicine this year and come out super strong next year.

因此，可以肯定的是，它是正確的公司、正確的市場、正確的組合嗎？今年結束後，我們將為成長做好充分準備。所以我們今年會吃藥，明年會變得非常強大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. And the last question comes from Damian Karas with UBS. Your line is now open.

好的。最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的達米安卡拉斯。您的線路現已開通。

Hey, good morning, Ron. David, Just following up on some of the prior HVAC order comments. We had heard that one of your North American competitors was having some notable supply hiccups. So I was wondering if maybe you could just talk more broadly about any industry supply issues that are out there and to what extent that might be impacting the strong orders growth and the 120 basis points of share gains you called out?

嘿，早上好，羅恩。大衛，只是跟進之前的一些暖通空調訂單評論。我們聽說你們的一位北美競爭對手出現了一些明顯的供應問題。因此，我想知道您是否可以更廣泛地討論目前存在的任何行業供應問題，以及這可能在多大程度上影響強勁的訂單增長和您所說的 120 個基點的份額收益？

We hear anecdotal things as well. But I'd rather not talk about the competitors and just talk about our customers and our team, which is that our teams. As I mentioned, we picked up about 120 bps over the last 12 months. Our goal is having the right products at the right price when they need, what they need. And I'm confident that if we continue to do the right thing for our customers, we'll continue to see outsized growth.

我們也聽到一些軼事。但我不想談論競爭對手，只談論我們的客戶和我們的團隊，也就是我們的團隊。正如我所提到的，過去 12 個月我們上漲了約 120 個基點。我們的目標是在他們需要的時候以合適的價格提供合適的產品。我相信，如果我們繼續為客戶做正確的事情，我們將繼續實現大幅成長。

Terrific. Appreciate it. Thanks for your time.

了不起。欣賞它。謝謝你的時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

現在，我想將電話轉回給管理階層，讓他們發表結束語。

Okay. Well, listen, thank you all for joining us this morning. We're very pleased with the first half of this year. We're positioned well for a strong second half. '24 is a really important year for us as a team as we finalize the transition of our portfolio, and we position ourselves for sustained growth and margin expansion for years to come. So we appreciate you joining us. Sam and the team, of course, are available for questions throughout the day, and thank you again for your confidence in us.

好的。好吧，聽著，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們對今年上半年的情況非常滿意。我們已經準備好迎接下半場的強勁表現。 24 年對我們團隊來說是非常重要的一年，因為我們完成了投資組合的轉型，我們為未來幾年的持續成長和利潤擴張做好了準備。所以我們感謝您加入我們。當然，Sam 和團隊全天都可以回答問題，並再次感謝您對我們的信任。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。