Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Amcor First Quarter 2021 Results Conference.

您好，歡迎您參加 Amcor 2021 年第一季業績發表會。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Tracey Whitehead。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's Fiscal '24 First Quarter Earnings Call. Joining today is Ron Delia, our Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, our Chief Financial Officer. Before handing over, a few items to note. On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call.

謝謝業者，也謝謝大家參加 Amcor '24 財年第一季財報電話會議。今天加入的是我們的執行長 Ron Delia；和我們的財務長邁克爾·卡薩門托。移交前，有幾點要注意。在我們的網站 amcor.com 的投資者部分下，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和簡報，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。

Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in that press release and presentation. Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. Reference can also be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，相關調節可在該新聞稿和簡報中找到。評論還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天簡報中的第二張投影片列出了可能導致未來結果與目前估計不同的幾個因素。也可以參考 Amcor 的 SEC 文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表上的聲明，以了解更多詳細資訊。 （操作員說明）

With that, over to you, Ron.

好了，就交給你了，羅恩。

Thanks, Tracey, and thanks, everyone, for joining Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's first quarter results for fiscal 2024. We'll begin with some prepared remarks before opening for Q&A.

謝謝特雷西，也謝謝大家今天與邁克爾和我一起討論 Amcor 2024 財年第一季的業績。在開始問答之前，我們將先做一些準備好的發言。

As seen on Slide 3, Amcor continues to be an industry leader in safety with a recordable case frequency rate that has trended significantly downwards over many years. In our first quarter, 65% of our sites around the world were injury-free for the past 12 months, with more than 30% injury free for 3 years or more. Safety is deeply embedded in Amcor's culture, and providing a safe and healthy working environment is the #1 focus for our global teams.

如幻燈片 3 所示，Amcor 仍然是安全領域的行業領導者，其可記錄案例頻率多年來一直呈現顯著下降趨勢。第一季度，我們全球 65% 的工廠在過去 12 個月內沒有發生過傷害，其中超過 30% 的工廠在 3 年或更長時間內沒有發生過傷害。安全深植於 Amcor 的文化中，提供安全健康的工作環境是我們全球團隊的第一個重點。

Turning to our key messages on Slide 4. First, we delivered a first quarter result in line with our expectations despite a challenging demand environment characterized by continued weak consumer demand and ongoing customer destocking. Against this backdrop, our teams executed well and remained focused on managing the areas under their immediate control.

轉向幻燈片 4 上的關鍵資訊。首先，儘管消費者需求持續疲軟和客戶持續去庫存，需求環境充滿挑戰，但我們交付的第一季業績符合我們的預期。在此背景下，我們的團隊表現出色，並繼續專注於管理其直接控制的領域。

Second, the first quarter performance puts us on track to deliver against our full year guidance, which we are reaffirming today. Our expectations for phasing through the 2 halves of the fiscal year have not changed, and we continue to expect adjusted EPS for the second half of fiscal '24 to grow by mid-single digits over last year on a comparable constant currency basis. As a reminder, there are several reasons why we expect a stronger second half, including continued benefits and increased earnings leverage from ongoing price and cost actions, additional benefits from structural cost initiatives building through the year, a reduction in interest expense headwinds and favorable comparisons to the prior year's volume performance.

其次，第一季的業績使我們有望實現我們今天重申的全年指引。我們對本財年下半年的預期沒有改變，我們繼續預期 24 財年下半年調整後每股盈餘將比去年在可比較的固定匯率基礎上成長中個位數。提醒一下，我們預計下半年會更加強勁，有幾個原因，包括持續的價格和成本行動帶來的持續收益和盈利槓桿的增加、全年結構性成本計劃的額外收益、利息支出阻力的減少以及有利的比較與上一年度的銷售表現相比。

Our third key message is we're making significant strides in our sustainability efforts within our own operations and in the design of our products. Our commitment to sustainability and the creation of a circular economy for packaging represents one of our most promising avenues for growth as we enable our customers to meet consumer demand for more responsible packaging.

我們的第三個關鍵訊息是，我們在自己的營運和產品設計中的永續發展努力方面取得了重大進展。我們對永續發展和創建包裝循環經濟的承諾是我們最有前途的成長途徑之一，因為我們使我們的客戶能夠滿足消費者對更負責任的包裝的需求。

And fourth, we remain confident in our long-term growth and value creation strategy. The strength of our market positions and underlying business, our proven execution capabilities and our consistent capital allocation framework collectively make a compelling case for investment in Amcor.

第四，我們對長期成長和價值創造策略仍然充滿信心。我們的市場地位和基礎業務的實力、經過驗證的執行能力和一致的資本配置框架共同為投資 Amcor 提供了令人信服的理由。

Moving to Slide 5 for a summary of our financial results. September quarter financial performance was in line with our expectations as we continue to take proactive cost and price actions to align the business with market dynamics, including ongoing inflation and continued weak and volatile volumes. Sales were 6% lower than last year on a comparable constant currency basis, which reflects price/mix benefits of approximately 2%, offset by an 8% decline in volumes, which was within the range we anticipated for the first half of fiscal '24.

請前往投影片 5，以了解我們的財務表現摘要。九月季度的財務表現符合我們的預期，因為我們繼續採取積極主動的成本和價格行動，使業務與市場動態保持一致，包括持續的通貨膨脹和持續疲軟且波動的交易量。以可比較的固定匯率計算，銷售額比去年下降了6%，這反映了約2% 的價格/組合效益，但被銷量下降8% 所抵消，這在我們對2024 財年上半年的預期範圍內。

As expected, volume weakness persisted and was broad based through the September quarter due to a combination of lower consumer demand and continued customer inventory destocking. Fiscal first quarter adjusted EBIT of $358 million was 5% lower than last year on a comparable constant currency basis. Benefits from ongoing cost actions and price and mix benefits were more than offset by the weaker volumes.

正如預期的那樣，由於消費者需求下降和客戶庫存持續減少，銷售持續疲軟，並在整個 9 月季度普遍疲軟。以可比固定匯率計算，第一財季調整後息稅前利潤為 3.58 億美元，比去年下降 5%。持續的成本行動以及價格和組合效益所帶來的好處被銷售疲軟所抵消。

And our teams drove working capital improvements, which resulted in free cash flow being well ahead of the same period last year. We expect to deliver strong cash returns to shareholders this fiscal year with returns of approximately $200 million in the first quarter, up more than 10% over last year through a combination of share repurchases and a growing dividend which the Board increased to $0.125 per share.

我們的團隊推動了營運資本的改善，從而導致自由現金流遠遠領先去年同期。我們預計本財年將向股東帶來強勁的現金回報，透過股票回購和不斷增長的股息（董事會將股息增加至每股0.125 美元）相結合，第一季回報約為2 億美元，比去年增長10% 以上。

I'll turn it over now to Michael to provide some further color on the financials and our outlook.

我現在將其轉交給邁克爾，以提供有關財務狀況和我們的前景的更多資訊。

Thanks, Ron, and hello, everyone. Turning to our Flexibles segment performance on Slide 6. Net sales were down 8% on a reported basis, which includes a favorable impact of 3% related to movements in foreign exchange rates and an unfavorable impact of 2% related to the pass-through of lower raw material costs. On a comparable constant currency basis, net sales were down 6%, reflecting 8% lower volumes, partly offset by price/mix benefits of approximately 2% as the business continues to take pricing actions to recover inflation.

謝謝羅恩，大家好。轉向投影片 6 中我們的軟包裝業務部門的業績。根據報告，淨銷售額下降了 8%，其中包括與外匯匯率變動相關的 3% 的有利影響和與匯率變動相關的 2% 的不利影響。降低原材料成本。在可比較的固定匯率基礎上，淨銷售額下降了 6%，反映出銷量下降了 8%，但部分被約 2% 的價格/組合效益所抵消，因為該公司繼續採取定價行動來恢復通膨。

First quarter volume trends remained similar to last quarter, with all regions continuing to be impacted by lower consumer demand and destocking. Volumes across North America and Europe were down high single digits, with Europe a little softer than North America. Volumes in Latin America were also down high single digits. And in Asia, volumes were broadly in line with last year as continued growth in India and a return to positive volume growth in China offset lower overall volumes in Southeast Asia.

第一季的銷售趨勢與上季相似，所有地區都持續受到消費者需求下降和庫存減少的影響。北美和歐洲的銷量下降了高個位數，其中歐洲略低於北美。拉丁美洲的銷量也出現了高個位數的下降。在亞洲，銷售量與去年基本一致，印度的持續成長和中國銷售的恢復正成長抵消了東南亞整體銷售的下降。

The impact of destocking across the Flexibles business was similar to last quarter, accounting for approximately 1/3 of total volume declines. By end market, we continue to see soft demand and destocking impact categories, including protein, coffee, liquid beverage and health care. Pet care and confectionary categories remained strong in key markets with volume growth delivered in the quarter. Adjusted EBIT was down 5% in comparable constant currency terms for the quarter, reflecting favorable operating cost performance and price/mix benefits, offset by the lower volumes.

整個彈性業務業務去庫存的影響與上季相似，約佔總銷售量下降的 1/3。從終端市場來看，我們持續看到需求疲軟和去庫存影響的品類，包括蛋白質、咖啡、液體飲料和醫療保健。寵物護理和糖果類別在主要市場仍然強勁，本季銷售成長。以可比固定匯率計算，本季調整後息稅前利潤下降 5%，反映出良好的營運成本效益和價格/組合優勢，但被銷售下降所抵銷。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 7. Reported sales were 6% lower than last year, including the favorable impact of 1% related to movements in foreign exchange rates and the unfavorable impact of 1% related to the pass-through of lower raw material costs. On a comparable constant currency basis, net sales were 6% lower than last year as price/mix benefits of approximately 1% were offset by a 7% decline in volumes.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的剛性包裝。報告銷售額比去年下降 6%，其中包括與匯率變動相關的 1% 的有利影響和與原材料成本下降的轉嫁相關的 1% 的不利影響。以可比固定匯率計算，淨銷售額比去年下降 6%，因為約 1% 的價格/組合效益被銷量下降 7% 所抵銷。

In North America, volumes in both the beverage and specialty containers business continued to be impacted by lower consumer demand and similar levels of custom destocking as experienced last quarter. In the beverage business, overall volumes were down 9%, although mix trends were favorable. In specialty containers, volume growth in food was offset by weaker volumes in health care and home and personal care.

在北美，飲料和特殊容器業務的銷量繼續受到消費者需求下降和與上季度類似水平的客製化去庫存的影響。在飲料業務中，儘管混合趨勢良好，但整體銷量下降了 9%。在特種容器中，食品銷售的成長被醫療保健、家庭和個人護理銷售的疲軟所抵消。

In Latin America, while market demand was somewhat softer across the region, our business is benefiting from new business wins and overall volumes were up mid-single digits compared with last year. The businesses in Brazil and Colombia delivered strong volume growth, offsetting lower volumes in Mexico. Adjusted EBIT was 6% lower than last year on a comparable constant currency basis, reflecting lower overall volumes, partly offset by price/mix benefits and favorable cost performance.

在拉丁美洲，雖然整個地區的市場需求有所疲軟，但我們的業務正受益於新業務的成長，整體銷售量與去年相比成長了中個位數。巴西和哥倫比亞的業務銷售強勁成長，抵消了墨西哥銷量的下降。以可比固定匯率計算，調整後息稅前利潤比去年低 6%，反映出整體銷售量下降，但部分被價格/組合效益和有利的性價比所抵銷。

In terms of cash flow and the balance sheet, on Slide 8. Our adjusted free cash flow performance was in line with our expectations and meaningfully better than last year, enabling us to reaffirm our full year cash flow guidance, which I'll come back to shortly. The cash flow improvement of more than $170 million compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2023, mainly reflects our focused inventory reduction efforts, which have resulted in a decrease of more than $500 million since the peak in November 2022. We remain highly focused on working capital performance, which is particularly critical in this environment of continued inflation and raising interest rates -- rising interest rates.

在現金流和資產負債表方面，請參閱投影片 8。我們調整後的自由現金流表現符合我們的預期，並且明顯好於去年，使我們能夠重申我們的全年現金流指引，我會回來的到不久。與2023 財年第一季相比，現金流量改善超過1.7 億美元，主要反映了我們專注於減少庫存的努力，這導致自2022 年11 月的峰值以來減少了超過5 億美元。我們仍然高度專注於工作資本績效，在持續通膨和利率上升的環境下尤其重要。

We also continued to return cash to shareholders, purchasing approximately 3 million shares during the first quarter for a total cost of $30 million. And consistent with our comments in August, we expect to allocate a total of at least $70 million towards share repurchases in fiscal '24. In terms of the balance sheet, we maintained a strong investment-grade credit rating with leverage of 3.3x, in line with our expectations at this time, taking into account the usual seasonality of cash flows and the short-term impacts of cycling the divestiture of our Russian business earnings and higher working capital levels. We expect leverage will decrease to approximately 3x by the end of the fourth quarter.

我們也繼續向股東返還現金，在第一季購買了約 300 萬股股票，總成本為 3,000 萬美元。與我們 8 月的評論一致，我們預計將在 24 財年分配至少 7,000 萬美元用於股票回購。就資產負債表而言，考慮到現金流的通常季節性以及循環剝離的短期影響，我們維持了強勁的投資級信用評級，槓桿率為3.3倍，符合我們目前的預期我們的俄羅斯業務收入和更高的營運資本水準。我們預計到第四季末槓桿率將降至約 3 倍。

Turning to our outlook on Slide 9. Our Q1 performance was in line with our expectations and we are reaffirming our full year guidance for adjusted EPS of $0.67 to $0.71 per share. We continue to expect the underlying business to contribute organic earnings growth in the plus or minus low single-digit range, and share repurchases will result in a benefit of approximately 2%. The U.S. dollar has strengthened slightly since August, and we now anticipate currency translation to result in a benefit of up to 2%. This is expected to be offset by a negative impact of approximately 3% related to the sale of our 3 plants in Russia in December 2022. And we also expect a negative impact of approximately 6% from higher interest and tax expense.

轉向我們對幻燈片 9 的展望。我們第一季的業績符合我們的預期，我們重申調整後每股收益 0.67 美元至 0.71 美元的全年指引。我們繼續預期基礎業務將貢獻正負低個位數範圍內的有機獲利成長，而股票回購將帶來約 2% 的收益。自 8 月以來，美元略有走強，我們現在預計貨幣換算將帶來高達 2% 的收益。預計這將被 2022 年 12 月出售我們在俄羅斯的 3 家工廠相關的約 3% 的負面影響所抵消。我們也預計利息和稅收費用增加將帶來約 6% 的負面影響。

Our expectations for interest and tax expense for the full year remain unchanged with interest in the range of $320 million to $340 million and a tax rate in the range of 18% to 20%. In terms of cash flow, we are trending better than the first quarter last year, and we continue to expect significant adjusted free cash flow in the range of $850 million to $950 million in fiscal '24, representing growth of up to $100 million over last year. Our plan to repurchase at least $70 million of Amcor shares in 2024 is unchanged, and we continue to pursue value-creating M&A opportunities.

我們對全年利息和稅收支出的預期保持不變，利息在 3.2 億至 3.4 億美元之間，稅率在 18% 至 20% 之間。在現金流方面，我們的趨勢好於去年第一季度，我們繼續預計 24 財年調整後的自由現金流將在 8.5 億至 9.5 億美元之間，比去年增長高達 1 億美元。我們在 2024 年回購至少 7,000 萬美元 Amcor 股票的計畫保持不變，我們將繼續尋求創造價值的併購機會。

Turning to Slide 10. Amcor has a proven track record of strong and consistent long-term earnings growth. As noted on our call in August, it's important to call out that fiscal 2024 phasing of comparable earnings growth is not expected to align with prior years. Consistent with our comments from last quarter, we anticipate challenging market dynamics will persist in the near term, resulting in similar mid- to high single-digit volume declines through the December quarter. Combined with the unfavorable impact of higher interest expense, which is expected to moderate in the second half, our guidance for the first half is unchanged.

轉向幻燈片 10。Amcor 擁有強勁且持續的長期盈利增長的良好記錄。正如我們在 8 月的電話會議上指出的那樣，重要的是要指出，2024 財年可比獲利成長的階段預計與前幾年不一致。與我們上季度的評論一致，我們預計短期內充滿挑戰的市場動態將持續存在，導致整個 12 月季度的成交量出現類似的中高個位數下降。加上利息支出上升的不利影響預計將在下半年緩解，我們對上半年的指導不變。

Compared with last year, we expect that adjusted EPS for the 6 months of fiscal 2024 will be down in the high single-digit to low double-digit range on a comparable constant currency basis. For the second quarter, this implies adjusted EPS and EBIT in absolute terms will be broadly in line with or marginally lower than the September quarter just finished.

與去年相比，我們預計 2024 財年 6 個月的調整後每股盈餘將在可比較的固定匯率基礎上下降至高個位數至低兩位數範圍內。對於第二季度，這意味著調整後的每股收益和息稅前利潤的絕對值將與剛結束的九月季度大致一致或略有下降。

As Ron mentioned earlier, our confidence in delivering mid-single-digit comparable constant currency earnings growth in the second half of fiscal '24 and resuming our long-term trend of high single-digit earnings growth shortly thereafter is supported by visibility to several known second half factors.

正如羅恩之前提到的，我們有信心在2024 財年下半年實現中等個位數的可比恆定貨幣收益增長，並在不久後恢復我們高個位數收益增長的長期趨勢，這得到了一些已知的可見性的支持。下半年因素。

First, we have the benefit of approximately $35 million from structural cost-saving initiatives that builds through the year; second, we have increased earnings leverage resulting from ongoing benefits of price and cost actions taken; third, as I noted earlier, a reduced interest headwind; and fourth, we expect that customer inventories will have largely normalized as we progress through the second half, and we will benefit from favorable prior year volume comparatives.

首先，我們從全年的結構性成本節約措施中獲得了約 3,500 萬美元的收益；其次，由於價格和成本行動的持續好處，我們提高了獲利槓桿；第三，正如我之前指出的，利息阻力減少；第四，我們預計，隨著下半年的進展，客戶庫存將基本正常化，我們將受益於去年有利的銷售比較。

Finally, and also consistent with our comments in August, we do not need to see a significant change in the demand environment to return to solid earnings growth in the second half and beyond. So with that, I'll turn the call back to Ron to provide some longer-term comments.

最後，與我們 8 月的評論一致，我們不需要看到需求環境發生重大變化即可在下半年及以後恢復穩健的獲利成長。因此，我會將電話轉回給羅恩，以提供一些長期評論。

Thanks, Michael. Before we open the call to questions, I want to provide a few words on the building blocks that inform how we think about growth over the longer term and then finish with a brief preview of our 2023 sustainability report which will be released in the coming days.

謝謝，麥可。在我們開始提問之前，我想先簡單介紹一下我們如何看待長期成長的基本要素，然後簡要地預覽我們將在未來幾天發布的 2023 年永續發展報告。

Looking at Slide 11, we have multiple drivers that have enabled us to deliver solid and sustainable earnings growth over the longer term, including opportunities in priority categories, emerging markets and through innovation. These have not changed and collectively give us confidence in our ability to deliver future growth in line with our historic trend rates.

看看幻燈片 11，我們有多種驅動因素​​使我們能夠在長期內實現穩健和可持續的盈利增長，包括優先類別、新興市場和創新的機會。這些都沒有改變，共同讓我們對我們以歷史趨勢率實現未來成長的能力充滿信心。

Turning to Slide 12 and some highlights from our forthcoming sustainability report, which covers the significant strides we've made in product development and operational sustainability. Sustainability provides meaningful opportunities to differentiate and drive growth and value. This is particularly important in today's landscape as consumers focus on the critical need for more sustainable, high-performance packaging solutions and as customers increasingly look to work closely with responsible sustainability-focused partners.

轉向幻燈片 12 以及我們即將發布的可持續發展報告中的一些亮點，其中涵蓋了我們在產品開發和營運可持續性方面取得的重大進展。永續性提供了有意義的機會來實現差異化並推動成長和價值。這在當今情況下尤其重要，因為消費者專注於對更永續、高效能包裝解決方案的迫切需求，而客戶越來越希望與負責任的、注重永續發展的合作夥伴密切合作。

Starting with our own operations. Since launching Amcor's EnviroAction program 15 years ago, we've diligently worked towards reducing our greenhouse gas emission intensity and have achieved a cumulative reduction of more than 40% against our 2006 baseline. Along the way, we've also increased our ambition and committed to net 0 emissions by 2050, in line with the science-based target initiatives.

從我們自己的營運開始。自 15 年前啟動 Amcor 的 EnviroAction 計畫以來，我們一直致力於降低溫室氣體排放強度，與 2006 年基準相比，累積減少了 40% 以上。在此過程中，我們也提高了雄心，承諾根據基於科學的目標舉措，到 2050 年實現淨零排放。

In fiscal 2023, we delivered an annual reduction in absolute emissions of 10% through a range of measures, including an increasing focus on the use of renewable electricity. In addition to carbon-related objectives, we maintain robust targets for reducing water and waste. 100% of our sites have a water management plan in place and 143 of our sites have achieved 0 waste to disposal certification, which is an increase of around 20% in the last 12 months.

2023 財年，我們透過一系列措施，包括更加關注再生電力的使用，實現了每年 10% 的絕對排放量減少。除了與碳相關的目標外，我們還制定了減少水和廢物的堅定目標。我們 100% 的工廠都制定了水管理計劃，並且我們的 143 個工廠已獲得零廢棄物處置認證，在過去 12 個月中增加了約 20%。

Transitioning to Slide 13. We also continue to make significant progress in supporting the development of circular systems and what we believe are the 3 requirements for responsible packaging. Package design, waste management infrastructure and consumer participation. Amcor's industry-leading innovation capabilities position us well to develop the more sustainable and high-performing packaging consumers are looking for, and we believe this is one of our greatest opportunities for growth and differentiation.

轉到投影片 13。我們還在支援循環系統的開發以及我們認為負責任包裝的 3 個要求方面繼續取得重大進展。包裝設計、廢棄物管理基礎設施和消費者參與。 Amcor 業界領先的創新能力使我們能夠很好地開發消費者所尋求的更具可持續性和高性能的包裝，我們相信這是我們實現成長和差異化的最大機會之一。

Today, almost all of our Rigid Packaging and Specialty Carton portfolios are fully recyclable. Looking at our Flexibles portfolio, 61% of fiscal 2023 sales were recycle-ready according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation definition, meaning these solutions are designed to be recycled using current technologies where infrastructure is available. Additionally, another 28% of sales had recycle-ready alternatives available, providing a meaningful growth opportunity when our customers are ready to transition more of their portfolios to sustainable solutions.

如今，我們幾乎所有的硬包裝和特殊紙箱產品組合都是完全可回收的。看看我們的柔性產品組合，根據艾倫麥克阿瑟基金會的定義，2023 財年銷售額的61% 已做好回收準備，這意味著這些解決方案旨在在基礎設施可用的情況下使用當前技術進行回收。此外，另外 28% 的銷售額擁有可回收的替代品，當我們的客戶準備將更多產品組合轉向永續解決方案時，這提供了有意義的成長機會。

In total, 89% of our Flexible Packaging portfolio is designed to be recycled or has a recycle-ready alternative, a 6 percentage point increase over fiscal '22. Our use of recycled content also continues to grow, increasing by 29% over fiscal '22, reflecting our commitment to work closely with customers to reduce the use of virgin materials. Over the past 4 years, we've more than tripled our use of recycled material, and we're confident we'll achieve 30% recycled content across our portfolio by 2030.

總的來說，我們的軟包裝產品組合中 89% 的設計可回收或具有可回收的替代品，比 22 財年增加了 6 個百分點。我們對回收材料的使用也在持續增長，比 22 財年增加了 29%，這反映了我們與客戶密切合作以減少原始材料使用的承諾。在過去 4 年裡，我們的再生材料使用量增加了兩倍多，我們有信心到 2030 年，我們的產品組合中的再生材料比例將達到 30%。

We also continue to leverage our position as an industry leader and trusted resource to help our customers navigate their sustainability journeys. As an example, in fiscal '23, we hosted several Amcor webinars, which were attended by hundreds of customers; and covered topics such as the use of recycled content in food contact and health care packaging and the impact of evolving regional regulations on packaging options. Through these efforts, we're reinforcing our value proposition and helping customers accelerate conversion of their packaging portfolios to comply with emerging regulations and to meet their own sustainability goals.

我們也繼續利用我們作為行業領導者和值得信賴的資源的地位來幫助我們的客戶完成他們的永續發展之旅。例如，在 23 財年，我們舉辦了幾場 Amcor 網路研討會，有數百名客戶參加；涵蓋的主題包括食品接觸和保健包裝中回收材料的使用以及不斷發展的區域法規對包裝選擇的影響等。透過這些努力，我們正在強化我們的價值主張，並幫助客戶加速其包裝產品組合的轉換，以符合新興法規並實現自己的永續發展目標。

We take pride in the strides we've made across all aspects of our sustainability journey. We eagerly anticipate the opportunities ahead, which will continue to differentiate Amcor and also advance our growth objectives, all while contributing to the creation of a circular economy for the packaging industry.

我們為永續發展之旅各個方面所取得的進步感到自豪。我們熱切地期待著未來的機遇，這將繼續使 Amcor 脫穎而出，並推動我們的成長目標，同時為包裝行業創建循環經濟做出貢獻。

In summary, on Slide 14, fiscal '24 has started in line with our expectations. We have reaffirmed our earnings and cash flow guidance today as we continue to have confidence and visibility to solid earnings growth in the second half. We're making good progress on our sustainability agenda and we remain focused on our strategy to deliver long-term growth and value creation.

總而言之，在投影片 14 上，24 財年的開始符合我們的預期。我們今天重申了我們的獲利和現金流指引，因為我們仍然對下半年獲利的穩健成長充滿信心和預見性。我們在永續發展議程上取得了良好進展，並將繼續專注於實現長期成長和價值創造的策略。

Operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在準備開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

你的第一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 和 Baird 的對話。

Ron, could you give us a bit of a sense as to what your base case is for volumes for fiscal year '24? And I'm just trying to get a sense as to the sequencing beyond the first quarter, which was down 8%. Would it be sort of 4Q before you hit that inflection point on a year-over-year basis?

Ron，您能為我們介紹一下您 24 財年銷售的基本狀況嗎？我只是想了解第一季之後的情況，第一季下降了 8%。在達到同比拐點之前，會是第四季嗎？

Thanks for the question, Ghansham. Look, firstly, as we entered the year, we flagged that we expected volumes to be down mid- to high single digits for the first half. And that's exactly what we saw in the first quarter, and we expect a similar trajectory for the second quarter as well.

謝謝你的提問，甘沙姆。首先，當我們進入今年時，我們預計上半年銷售將下降到中高個位數。這正是我們在第一季看到的情況，我們預計第二季也會出現類似的軌跡。

As we look forward to the second half, we do expect the trajectory to improve. So we would expect that the destocking will abate as we get past year-end and as we start to cycle several quarters of inventory reductions, we would expect that impact to start to moderate. And we would expect, for the second half volumes, more reasonably flattish, flat to up -- to plus or minus low single digits.

當我們展望下半年時，我們確實預期軌跡會有所改善。因此，我們預計，隨著年底過去，去庫存將會減弱，並且隨著我們開始循環幾個季度的庫存削減，我們預計這種影響將開始減弱。我們預計，下半年的銷售將更加持平，從持平到上升——正負低個位數。

I think it's more reasonable to expect that the trajectory will improve now. Exactly the rate at which that trajectory improves in the second half is difficult to predict. But certainly, as we get into the fourth quarter, the comps get a lot easier, and we would expect things to be improving as we exit the year.

我認為現在期望軌跡將會改善更為合理。下半年軌跡改善的確切速度很難預測。但當然，隨著我們進入第四季度，比較變得容易多了，我們預計當我們結束今年時情況會有所改善。

And I'm just trying to understand the divergence also between volumes, which are quite a bit lower against improved price/mix as you've established over the last couple of quarters and the sustainability of that dynamic and typically, during periods of weaker volumes, there tends to be some sort of a trade down and you actually are showcasing the opposite, so more color on that, please.

我只是想了解成交量之間的差異，正如您在過去幾個季度中所建立的那樣，與改善的價格/組合相比，成交量之間的差異要低得多，而且這種動態的可持續性通常是在成交量疲軟的時期，往往會出現某種程度的下降，而您實際上展示的是相反的情況，因此請在此提供更多顏色。

Well, look, mix over a longer period of time over multiple years is a major source of earnings leverage for us and has been over a long period of time. As we emphasize higher-value segments, both product segments and end market categories, mix is a very important part of our playbook. For this year, on a full year basis, we expect mix to be more or less neutral.

嗯，看，多年來較長時期的混合是我們獲利槓桿的主要來源，並且已經持續了很長一段時間。由於我們強調更高價值的細分市場，包括產品細分市場和終端市場類別，因此混合是我們策略中非常重要的一部分。今年，就全年而言，我們預計混合情況或多或少是中性的。

We've had a reasonably good start in the first quarter with positive mix in both segments. We would expect that probably will continue in the second quarter. But for the full year, we would expect that might normalize a little bit. The reason for that is some of the segments that are higher value have declined at a lower rate than some of the value categories.

我們在第一季取得了相當好的開局，兩個細分市場都取得了正面的成果。我們預計這種情況可能會在第二季持續下去。但就全年而言，我們預計這種情況可能會稍微正常化。原因是一些價值較高的細分市場的下降速度低於某些價值類別的下降速度。

But as we look forward into the second half, we think that the health care destocking will continue, and ultimately, that will balance out the positive first quarter. So all up, relatively neutral for fiscal '24. But on a multiyear basis, mix is absolutely part of the earnings algorithm going forward.

但當我們展望下半年時，我們認為醫療保健去庫存將繼續，最終將平衡第一季的正面表現。綜上所述，24 財年相對中立。但從多年的角度來看，混合絕對是未來獲利演算法的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Kang with CLSA.

你的下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Daniel Kang。

I guess first question for me is on destocking cycle, please. Consistent in the quarter, are you seeing any evidence or signs of destocking easing as we walk into the second quarter? Perhaps you can comment on what you're seeing on customer stock levels as well?

我想我的第一個問題是關於去庫存週期。與本季一致，當我們進入第二季時，您是否看到任何去庫存放鬆的證據或跡象？也許您也可以評論一下您所看到的客戶庫存水準？

Yes. Look, I think it's -- we're using the term destocking. I think what we're seeing is -- more broadly is just inventory reductions. Destocking might imply that inventories started at a higher level. And I think that's certainly true in some categories that were subject to more of the supply chain constraints and raw material shortages over the last 12 to 18 months. There certainly were some inventory accumulation. But I think we've got a few different dynamics that are driving the inventory reduction trend. The first is, for those categories that started at a high level, obviously, they're working down the excess at a time when consumer demand has softened.

是的。聽著，我認為我們正在使用“去庫存”這個詞。我認為我們看到的是——更廣泛地說，只是庫存減少。去庫存可能意味著庫存開始處於較高水準。我認為對於某些類別來說確實如此，這些類別在過去 12 至 18 個月內受到更多供應鏈限制和原材料短缺的影響。當然有一些庫存累積。但我認為我們有一些不同的動力正在推動庫存減少趨勢。首先，對於那些起步較高的品類來說，顯然，在消費者需求疲軟之際，他們正在減少過剩的產品。

And also carrying cost of inventory is now much higher than it's been in a long period of time. So I think that we're seeing a number of companies, including Amcor, try to drive inventories down to lower levels than they've been in quite some time. I know that we are certainly on that path. So I don't expect that trend to beyond -- to be past us in the second quarter, particularly as we're heading towards the year-end, and cash flow at year-end becomes an important metric that companies are driving towards. So we would expect that the destocking will abate in the second half, but not in the second quarter.

而且庫存的持有成本現在比很長一段時間內要高得多。因此，我認為我們看到包括 Amcor 在內的許多公司都在試圖將庫存降低到相當長一段時間以來的水平。我知道我們肯定走在這條路上。因此，我預計這種趨勢不會在第二季度超越，特別是在我們即將接近年底的時候，年底的現金流成為公司推動的重要指標。因此，我們預計下半年去庫存將會減弱，但第二季不會。

Got it. Secondly, I'm just interested in the progress of the new packaging products, AmLite and fiber, et cetera. I realize it's early days, but can you comment on the volume growth and customer adoption that you're seeing, the pricing premium that you're achieving?

知道了。其次，我只是對新包裝產品的進展感興趣，AmLite和纖維等。我意識到現在還為時過早，但您能否評論一下您所看到的銷售成長和客戶採用率以及您所實現的定價溢價？

Yes. Look, we're really excited about some of those platform products that you mentioned, AmLite, which is a retortable -- a recycle-ready retortable structure. AmFiber, which is a paper-based solution; AmSky, which eliminates PVC and PVDC from blister packaging. We think that we've got some really special products there with a really compelling value proposition for customers that are trying to drive their own sustainability agenda.

是的。聽著，我們對您提到的一些平台產品感到非常興奮，AmLite，這是一種可蒸煮的——一種可回收的可蒸煮結構。 AmFiber，這是一種基於紙質的解決方案； AmSky，消除了泡罩包裝中的 PVC 和 PVDC。我們認為我們在那裡擁有一些非常特別的產品，對於那些試圖推動自己的永續發展議程的客戶來說，這些產品具有非常引人注目的價值主張。

It is early days. Several of those products, though, are generating real sales. So AmPrima, which is also a recycle-ready alternatives, AmSky, AmFiber, they're all each generating sales in the tens of millions of dollars, low tens of millions of dollars, but real meaningful sales. AmSky, it's early days, and it's primarily oriented to the pharma industry, so the qualification period is a bit longer. And -- but we are in active trials with a whole range of customers on that one as well. So we're -- we continue to be really excited about those platforms that you've asked about.

現在還很早。不過，其中一些產品正在產生實際銷售。因此，AmPrima（也是一種可回收的替代品）、AmSky、AmFiber，它們都產生了數千萬美元的銷售額，低數千萬美元，但卻是真正有意義的銷售額。 AmSky，還處於早期階段，主要面向醫藥行業，所以資格週期有點長。而且 - 但我們也在與一系列客戶進行積極的試驗。因此，我們仍然對您詢問的那些平台感到非常興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

Yes. I was hoping, maybe first talk about just the performance in the quarter from the difference between volume and comparable constant currency operating profit growth and just very little volume deleverage in the period and -- to contrast the fiscal '23 experience. Maybe just wanted a little bit more color on kind of how you're able to narrow the gap with volumes down mid- to high single digits kind of keeping the profit declines that narrow?

是的。我希望，也許首先從銷量和可比較的固定貨幣營業利潤增長之間的差異來談談本季度的業績，以及該時期非常小的銷量去槓桿化，並與 23 財年的經歷進行對比。也許只是想了解如何縮小與中高個位數的銷售差距，從而保持利潤下降幅度縮小？

Yes. Look, it's just been really aggressive -- pulling the cost lever really aggressively. And we continue to do that through the back end of fiscal '23 and into the start here in the first quarter of fiscal '24, so. You might recall in August, we talked about the cost actions that we took in fiscal '23, where we reduced costs by over $200 million. We reduced head count by over 1,200 people. We had pulled the procurement lever really hard. We cut overheads. All of that continued in the first quarter and actually accelerated.

是的。看，它真的非常激進——非常激進地拉動成本槓桿。我們將繼續這樣做，直到 23 財年末，直到 24 財年第一季開始。您可能還記得在 8 月份，我們討論了我們在 23 財年採取的成本行動，其中我們減少了超過 2 億美元的成本。我們減少了 1,200 多名員工。我們非常努力地拉動採購槓桿。我們削減管理費用。所有這一切在第一季仍在繼續，而且實際上有所加速。

So in the first quarter, coming off a year where we took $200 million of cost out, in the first quarter, we took another $70 million of cost out versus the first quarter of the previous year. And so that's really resulted in improved earnings leverage and much -- I'd say, a much more dynamic ability to flex costs in the face of weaker volumes.

因此，在第一季度，我們削減了 2 億美元的成本，與去年第一季相比，我們又削減了 7,000 萬美元的成本。因此，這確實提高了獲利槓桿，並且在面對銷售疲軟的情況下，更具動態性地調整成本的能力。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

I just want to make sure it's 2 questions per? Or 1 question per? I don't want to overdo the quota here.

我只是想確保每題有 2 個問題？或每題 1 個問題？我不想超出這裡的配額。

George, for you, it's 2.

喬治，對你來說，是 2。

Okay. Okay. I'll try to keep them good then. So I guess the first thing I wanted to ask is, in an environment where we're still, to some degree, waiting for customers, your customers to begin promoting more aggressively to drive volume, if you agree with that premise, are you starting to see that?

好的。好的。那我會盡力讓他們保持良好狀態。所以我想我想問的第一件事是，在某種程度上，我們仍在等待客戶，您的客戶開始更積極地促銷以推動銷量，如果您同意這個前提，那麼您是否開始看到那個？

And how does that reconcile with your wanting-ness to push more innovative new products, new product sustainability, which are typically going to have a higher price point? Who's winning that tug of war right now as you think about it? And are we seeing more promotional activity?

這如何與您推動更具創新性的新產品、新產品的可持續性（這些產品通常會具有更高的價格點）的願望相協調？您仔細想想，現在誰在這場拉鋸戰中獲勝？我們是否看到更多促銷活動？

Look, it's anecdotal at best, George. I mean, there's, I think, a general recognition across the customer base that the price lever has been pulled really hard, and you see that from the results of a range of consumer companies that price has been a real driver of revenue growth, more so than volumes. And maybe that -- maybe those 2 variables can be brought back into better balance over time.

聽著，這充其量只是軼事，喬治。我的意思是，我認為，整個客戶群普遍認識到價格槓桿已經被拉得很緊，而且從一系列消費品公司的結果中可以看出，價格一直是收入增長的真正驅動力，更多所以比卷。也許隨著時間的推移，這兩個變數可以恢復到更好的平衡。

And you do hear, anecdotally, more customers talking about reprioritizing volume or balancing their mix a little bit more towards volume. We need to see it and we haven't seen it yet. And so we're not setting the business up on the expectation that, that happens. In fact, our second half earnings uplift that we're expecting is not at all levered to an improved demand environment and is not at all predicated or dependent on consumers taking a more active approach to promos.

有趣的是，你確實聽到越來越多的客戶談論重新確定銷量的優先順序，或更多地平衡他們的組合以適應銷量。我們需要看到它，但我們還沒有看到它。因此，我們不會將業務建立在這種情況發生的預期之上。事實上，我們預期的下半年獲利成長根本不是由於需求環境改善而產生的，也不是基於或依賴消費者採取更積極的促銷方式。

And the second question, broadly, can you talk a little bit about the momentum you apparently are seeing in protein packaging? You have a new high barrier win that you highlighted on 1 of the slides. You have your recycle-ready ecotype package. Is there a way to put a quantum size, what kind of momentum you're seeing, what kind of incremental revenue you're getting? And broadly, why you are gaining this momentum in the market given that you're the smaller player in the market? And I'll be back if there's time later on.

第二個問題，從廣義上講，你能談談你在蛋白質包裝領域看到的勢頭嗎？您在其中一張投影片上強調了新的高障礙勝利。您已擁有可回收的生態型包。有沒有辦法確定量子大小、你看到的勢頭、你獲得的增量收入？從廣義上講，鑑於您是市場上規模較小的參與者，為什麼您在市場上獲得了這種勢頭？如果我稍後有時間我會回來的。

Look, I think it's early innings of our journey on protein. In particular, our journey as a full-service solutions provider in meat and protein packaging, which includes the ability to offer equipment now as a result of the acquisition that we made earlier this year in Moda. It's early innings. I think that we are picking up some modest pieces of business along the way. But I would also point out that meat sales have been weak. We're in a down part -- a down cycle or a trough, let's say, a low point of the cycle in beef in particular. And so meat sales have actually been weak across the company in the first quarter.

看，我認為這是我們蛋白質之旅的早期階段。特別是，我們作為肉類和蛋白質包裝領域的全方位服務解決方案提供者的旅程，其中包括由於我們今年早些時候收購了 Moda，現在能夠提供設備。現在是早幾局。我認為我們一路走來取得了一些不起眼的業務。但我還要指出，肉類銷售一直疲軟。我們正處於下降階段——下降週期或低谷，可以說，特別是牛肉產業的周期低點。因此，第一季整個公司的肉類銷售實際上都很疲軟。

It's a long game, and we're in the early innings. And so I would say that we're really confident in the value proposition that we have and that we're building. We think we've got some really special films, and we think we've got a really special comprehensive offering that includes now equipment and service, but it's very new, very recent. The Moda acquisition is only a few months old.

這是一場漫長的比賽，我們正處於早期幾局。所以我想說，我們對我們擁有和正在建構的價值主張非常有信心。我們認為我們有一些非常特別的電影，我們認為我們有一個非常特別的綜合產品，包括現在的設備和服務，但它是非常新的，非常新的。對 Moda 的收購才剛幾個月。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Seow with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Sam Seow。

Just a simple one on the balance sheet. Just wondering if we don't get that second half volume stabilization, would that result in net debt outside your range? Or would there be enough in the seasonality and the unwinding of working capital to bring that down, irrespective -- albeit following, continue to decline?

只是資產負債表上的一個簡單的項目。只是想知道如果下半年銷售沒有穩定下來，是否會導致淨債務超出您的範圍？或者，季節性和營運資金的減少是否足以使這一下降，儘管隨後繼續下降？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Sam. I can take that one. Yes. Look, I mean, we finished the quarter with net debt of $6.5 billion, $6.6 billion and leverage at 3.3x, which was right in line with where we expected it to be. And that takes into account the relatively normal seasonality of the cash flows from fourth quarter to Q1. We typically see a tick up in leverage versus we were at 3x in June.

是的。謝謝你的提問，山姆。我可以接受那個。是的。看，我的意思是，我們本季末的淨債務分別為 65 億美元、66 億美元，槓桿率為 3.3 倍，這與我們的預期相符。這考慮到了從第四季到第一季現金流相對正常的季節性。我們通常會看到槓桿率比 6 月的 3 倍有所上升。

The other factors impacting leverage are really on the -- there are 2 temporary impacts. Firstly, we're lapping now 3/4 of divested Russia earnings, and that's being reflected in the last 12 months EBITDA, and that's ahead of us getting the benefit of the restructuring, which is going to start to come through in H2. So you'll start to see that improvement, absolutely.

影響槓桿率的其他因素實際上有兩個臨時影響。首先，我們現在正在剝離俄羅斯收益的 3/4，這反映在過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 中，這比我們獲得重組的好處要早，重組將在下半年開始實施。所以你絕對會開始看到這種改進。

And then the other one is really the higher-than-normal working capital levels. We've been driving inventory down. But at the same time, payables have come down at a faster rate, really just on the back of the lower demand environment. So again, we'd expect that to start to normalize as we get into the second half, and we'll get the leverage back to 3x by the end of June. So that's kind of the way we see it.

另一方面是高於正常水準的營運資本水準。我們一直在降低庫存。但同時，應付帳款下降速度更快，這實際上只是在需求較低的環境下發生的。因此，我們預計，隨著進入下半年，這種情況將開始正常化，到 6 月底，我們將把槓桿率恢復到 3 倍。這就是我們的看法。

And as we look forward from there, there'll be further opportunity for improvement, particularly in the working capital as it continues to normalize and as we cycle through the full 12 months of the Russia and the benefits from the restructuring that we're going to get into the P&L. So we're on track there.

當我們展望未來時，將會有進一步的改進機會，特別是在營運資本方面，因為它繼續正常化，並且隨著我們經歷俄羅斯的整個 12 個月以及我們正在進行的重組的好處進入損益表。所以我們已經步入正軌了。

Got it. And just maybe a follow-up. You talked at length about your volume expectations for the year. Maybe thoughts on pricing kind of ex pass-throughs, given end market weakness and ongoing destocking.

知道了。也許只是後續行動。您詳細討論了今年的銷售預期。考慮到終端市場疲軟和持續的去庫存，也許會考慮對前轉手定價。

Well, look, our pricing strategy has been, first and foremost, to compensate for inflation. And that's our approach. It's simple as that. We've had inflationary pressure on the cost base for 12 to 18 months now. And as a result, we've taken price as a high priority from an industry leadership perspective and certainly prioritized price and inflation recovery over volume.

好吧，看，我們的定價策略首先是為了補償通膨。這就是我們的方法。就這麼簡單。我們的成本基礎已經承受通膨壓力 12 到 18 個月了。因此，從行業領導者的角度來看，我們將價格視為重中之重，並且肯定將價格和通膨復甦置於數量之上。

Rates of inflation are starting to ease. We haven't seen large parts of the cost base go through -- experience decreases yet, but the rate of inflation has eased. And so our pricing -- the pace of our pricing will ease as a result. And beyond that, our pricing approach is really just a price for value. If we have a differentiated revalue proposition, there's an opportunity to generate a positive price. But that's something that needs to be earned every day in the marketplace.

通貨膨脹率開始放緩。我們還沒有看到大部分成本基礎發生變化——經驗還沒有減少，但通貨膨脹率已經放緩。因此，我們的定價——我們的定價節奏將因此而放緩。除此之外，我們的定價方法其實只是價值的價格。如果我們有差異化的重估主張，就有機會產生正面的價格。但這是每天都需要在市場上賺取的東西。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

I just have 1 question really. The company has made solid progress streamlining the portfolio, another $70 million of savings this quarter, closing plants, realigning production, head count reduction. If/when volumes begin to improve, should we expect to see a reversal of this and you're putting more capital to work in new plants, increasing head count? Or really does your existing footprint, as it stands today, have enough excess capacity to absorb incremental volumes without any additional investment?

我真的只有 1 個問題。該公司在精簡產品組合方面取得了紮實的進展，本季又節省了 7,000 萬美元，關閉了工廠，重新調整了生產，減少了員工人數。如果/當銷售量開始改善時，我們是否應該期望看到這種情況的逆轉，並且您是否會投入更多資金用於新工廠，增加員工數量？或者，按照目前的情況，您現有的足跡是否真的有足夠的過剩產能來吸收增量，而無需任何額外的投資？

Yes, it's a great question. I think the short answer is we're going to be well set up when volumes come back, and I think we're going to get even stronger earnings leverage as volumes return. And we're taking, really, 2 sets of actions on the cost side. So the first -- the $70 million that I referred to earlier that you just referenced is really ongoing productivity-oriented benefits, where we're taking shifts out reducing head count, driving procurement, optimizing the overhead and SG&A part of the business.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為簡短的答案是，當銷售恢復時，我們將做好準備，我認為，隨著銷售恢復，我們將獲得更強的獲利槓桿。事實上，我們在成本方面採取了兩套行動。因此，第一個 - 我之前提到的 7000 萬美元，您剛才提到的實際上是持續的以生產力為導向的福利，我們正在減少人員數量，推動採購，優化管理費用和業務的 SG&A 部分。

Kind of steady state, but aggressive belt tightening, I would say. That's one form of cost reduction. And I don't think a lot of that -- some of it will come back, obviously, as volumes come back, you need to add -- you might need to add shifts. But we will be in a much better position from a leverage perspective as volumes return. So that's on that side.

我想說，這是一種穩定的狀態，但激進的勒緊褲腰帶。這是降低成本的一種形式。我不認為很多——顯然，其中一些會回來，隨著銷量的恢復，你需要添加——你可能需要增加班次。但隨著交易量的恢復，從槓桿角度來看，我們將處於更好的位置。所以那是在那邊。

The second stream of cost takeout relates to more structural initiatives, which are more than restructuring -- more of the restructuring type, which are plant closures and more permanent and more deep-cutting overhead reductions. We really haven't seen the benefits yet from those initiatives. Those will start to build in the second half, as Michael referred to earlier.

第二個成本削減涉及更多的結構性舉措，這不僅僅是重組，更多的是重組類型，包括工廠關閉和更持久、更深入的管理費用削減。我們確實還沒有看到這些措施帶來的好處。正如邁克爾之前提到的，這些將在下半年開始建立。

We expect to get about $35 million of benefits from more structural initiatives in the second half. And those also will be long lasting and sustainable, because we're going to be taking out several plants in the network that we can compensate for with the remaining footprint. And in many cases, when we close a facility, we relocate the productive assets into a another facility, and we don't really take capacity out necessarily. So I think we're going to be well positioned when and if volumes return.

我們預計下半年更多的結構性措施將帶來約 3,500 萬美元的收益。這些也將是持久和可持續的，因為我們將拆除網路中的幾家工廠，我們可以用剩餘的足跡進行補償。在許多情況下，當我們關閉一個設施時，我們會將生產性資產重新安置到另一個設施中，而我們並不一定會真正削減產能。因此，我認為，當銷量恢復時，我們將處於有利位置。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自理查德·約翰遜和杰弗里斯的對話。

Ron, can I just return to the subject of price, and in particular, the U.S. protein market? I mean, I'm interested in the comments you make. And I'm just trying to reconcile that with what others in the market are saying and they're referring to significant overcapacity in that market, which makes sense given how weak the end market is, which is leading to acute price pressure because of that unused capacity. So I'm just interested to get your thoughts on that?

羅恩，我可以回到價格主題，特別是美國蛋白質市場嗎？我的意思是，我對你的評論很感興趣。我只是試圖將這一點與市場上其他人的說法相一致，他們指的是該市場產能嚴重過剩，考慮到終端市場的疲軟，這是有道理的，因此導致了嚴重的價格壓力未使用的容量。所以我只是想聽聽你對此的想法？

I don't know that the pricing pressure or the intensity of the competition is any more so at the moment in that segment than it has been in the past or that it will be in the future. You have to remember as well that the assets that are deployed against that segment are fungible across a range of categories. So we have film assets that produce into the protein market also produce specifications for dairy and a number of other segments as well. So it's certainly not a market that we look at as being overly capitalized or having much excess capacity.

我不知道該細分市場目前的定價壓力或競爭強度是否比過去或未來更大。您還必須記住，針對該細分市場部署的資產可以在一系列類別中互換。因此，我們擁有生產蛋白質市場的薄膜資產，也生產乳製品和許多其他細分市場的規格。因此，我們當然不認為這是一個資本過度或產能過剩的市場。

And then as you sort of spread that through the U.S. around the different categories, I mean, can I extrapolate from your comments around how -- that you're seeing positive price/mix trend that's really across categories? Or are there any areas where price is starting to -- or you're starting to give back price, which inevitably you would expect given how far price has gone at some point, that'll normalize, correct?

然後，當您將其傳播到美國的不同類別時，我的意思是，我可以從您的評論中推斷出您如何看到真正跨類別的積極價格/組合趨勢嗎？或者是否有任何領域的價格開始上漲，或者您開始回饋價格，考慮到價格在某個時刻已經走了多遠，您不可避免地會期望這會正常化，對嗎？

Look, I think it's going to be a function of inflation. The rate at which pricing changes in this industry, I think, from this point forward, will be primarily a function of the rate and the direction of travel of inflation. It's not been an industry over the years that had positive price with the -- in the absence of value. It's been an industry that is compensated for inflationary cost pressures. And I think that's kind of where we're at right now.

看，我認為這將是通貨膨脹的函數。我認為，從現在開始，這個行業的定價變化率將主要取決於通膨率和通膨方向。多年來，在缺乏價值的情況下，這並不是一個具有正價格的行業。這是一個因通膨成本壓力而得到補償的行業。我認為這就是我們現在所處的情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Cameron McDonald with E&P.

您的下一個問題來自 E&P 的卡梅倫·麥克唐納 (Cameron McDonald)。

Ron, Michael, can I just ask a question on Slide 10. So you've got the average of high single digit of 8% from '14 to '23. But if we think about the environment, we had interest rates collapsed to 0 during that period. You've had significant transformational acquisition with Bemis. You've had the buybacks, et cetera.

Ron、Michael，我可以在投影片 10 上問一個問題嗎？從 14 年到 23 年，您得到了 8% 的平均高個位數。但如果我們考慮一下環境，我們的利率在那段時間暴跌至 0。您對 Bemis 進行了重大轉型收購。你已經進行了回購，等等。

When you then talk about the high single digits expected long term, how do we marry that up? Or do you still think that there are significant M&A opportunities in the synergies that, that will create? And then -- but I suppose I come back to that interest rate environment, you've got a significantly higher interest rate that's going to be impacting that EPS.

當您談論長期預期的高個位數時，我們如何將其結合起來？或者您仍然認為這將產生的協同效應中存在重大的併購機會？然後，但我想我回到利率環境，利率明顯升高，這將影響每股盈餘。

Yes. Look, it's a good question because it's really a segue into why we're confident that we're going to get back to kind of high single digit growth rates going forward. And we just believe in conviction of our formula that served us well over many years. And that is that volumes, in a normal environment, will grow sort of low single digits.

是的。聽著，這是一個很好的問題，因為這確實是一個問題，因為這確實是一個問題，為什麼我們有信心未來將恢復到較高的個位數成長率。我們只相信多年來為我們提供良好服務的公式。也就是說，在正常環境下，銷售量將會以較低的個位數成長。

We will get leverage in terms of higher rates of profit growth than that, because the mix will improve over time and as we generate more productivity in our operations. So low single digit volume growth will translate into higher rates of profit growth. And then the business generates substantial amount of cash, and really excess cash, excess to the needs of the business from a CapEx perspective and to fund the dividend.

我們將獲得更高的利潤成長率，因為隨著時間的推移，隨著我們在營運中產生更高的生產力，這種組合將會得到改善。因此，較低的個位數銷售成長將轉化為更高的利潤成長率。然後，企業會產生大量現金，而且是真正過剩的現金，從資本支出的角度來看，超出了企業的需求，並為股息提供資金。

And with that extra cash, our first priority will be to do acquisitions, as we've done over a long period of time. And short acquisition opportunities, we'll buy back shares. And so you go from low single digit volume growth to something higher than that, mid-single digit type profit growth organically. And then the cash flow and balance sheet optionality to generate further EPS growth through either acquisitions or share repurchases. So that's the formula. That's the formula that's delivered the 8% over almost a decade. And that's the formula that we'll expect to deliver the same types of earnings growth rates going forward.

有了這些額外的現金，我們的首要任務將是進行收購，就像我們長期以來所做的那樣。在短期收購機會中，我們將回購股票。因此，你可以從低個位數的銷售成長有機地轉向高於中個位數的利潤成長。然後是現金流量和資產負債表選擇性，可以透過收購或股票回購來進一步實現每股盈餘成長。這就是公式。這就是近十年來實現 8% 成長的公式。這就是我們期望未來實現相同類型獲利成長率的公式。

As a follow-up to that, just on the M&A. Can -- when you think about the industry at the moment, you've spoken about the industry doesn't really have real price power without value. You've got a changing expectation around sustainability. We're seeing -- we've obviously seen WestRock and Smurfit get together, do you think the industry needs to more significantly and aggressively consolidate to change some of those industry dynamics?

作為後續行動，我們只談併購。可以——當你現在考慮這個行業時，你說過這個行業實際上沒有價值而沒有真正的價格能力。您對永續發展的期望不斷變化。我們看到——我們顯然已經看到 WestRock 和 Smurfit 走到了一起，您認為該行業是否需要更顯著、更積極的整合來改變其中一些行業動態？

Well, look, we've been big beneficiaries and big -- we've driven a lot of consolidation over the years. I think that what's important is industry structure and industry dynamics at a segment level. The fact is that there are a lot of players that are very small in the industry. So when we think about our M&A agenda, it's largely going to be bolt-ons.

嗯，看，我們一直是大受益者，而且是大受益者——多年來我們推動了很多整合。我認為重要的是細分層面的產業結構和產業動態。事實上，該行業有許多規模很小的參與者。因此，當我們考慮我們的併購議程時，它很大程度上將是補充性的。

We've been quite active. Even in the last 12, 15 months or so, we've done 4 small deals. And you can continue to see -- you can expect to continue to see us do that. Look, a lot of the value that comes out of those deals is cost synergies. I think that's where most of the value is going to come from in this -- particularly in this type of environment, and we're going to be active participants in the M&A space.

我們一直很活躍。即使在過去 12、15 個月左右的時間裡，我們也完成了 4 筆小交易。你可以繼續看到——你可以期望繼續看到我們這樣做。看，這些交易帶來的許多價值都是成本綜效。我認為這就是大部分價值的來源——特別是在這種類型的環境中，我們將成為併購領域的積極參與者。

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Reilly of UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的內森‧賴利 (Nathan Reilly)。

Just a follow-up in terms of free cash flow allocation point. Can you talk about where deleveraging sits in the context of the allocation of excess free cash flows?

只是自由現金流分配點方面的後續。可以談談去槓桿化在超額自由現金流配置中的定位嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we're committed to an investment-grade balance sheet. And so for us, that kind of -- we've had been in the range of 2.5 to 3x leverage for a long time, and that's where you should expect us to sit as we move forward. So to Ron's point, as the earnings grow, the cash flow grows and we can reinvest that in the base business.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們致力於投資等級資產負債表。因此，對我們來說，我們的槓桿率長期以來一直處於 2.5 至 3 倍的範圍內，這就是我們前進時應該期望的水平。因此，就羅恩的觀點而言，隨著收益的增長，現金流量的增長，我們可以將其再投資於基礎業務。

So you should expect CapEx over a period of time to increase as well. So we've been increasing our level of CapEx to grow organically. That's in that -- being in that 3% to 4% range. It's now -- as we look longer term, that's probably going to be more in that 4% to 5% range. That's going to drive the organic growth, and we still have cash left over to invest in the M&A agenda as a priority, and again, grow earnings through that, create value and then do buybacks. And so as you look at all that, we would continue to maintain that leverage in that 2.5 to 3x range. So that's how you should think about it. The excess cash will be deployed in that way.

因此，您應該預期一段時間內的資本支出也會增加。因此，我們一直在提高資本支出水準以實現有機成長。就是在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。現在——從長遠來看，這個比例可能會更多地落在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。這將推動有機成長，我們仍然有剩餘現金作為優先事項投資於併購議程，並再次透過此增加收益，創造價值，然後進行回購。因此，當你看到這一切時，我們將繼續將槓桿率維持在 2.5 至 3 倍的範圍內。所以這就是你應該如何思考的。多餘的現金將以這種方式進行配置。

The next question is from the line of John Purtell with Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的約翰‧珀特爾 (John Purtell)。

Just a couple of questions, if I could. The first is on your GLP-1. Obviously, there's been concerns across the sector, and it's obviously -- or still sort of long term in terms of potential impacts on food consumption and packaging demand, but -- so still very early days, but do you have any general observations to make?

如果可以的話，我只想問幾個問題。第一個是關於您的 GLP-1。顯然，整個行業都存在擔憂，而且顯然，就對食品消費和包裝需求的潛在影響而言，這顯然是長期的，但是，目前還處於早期階段，但您有什麼一般性的觀察結果嗎？ ？

Yes, I do, John. I think firstly, I would just -- yes, I just want to reinforce that we have seen no impact whatsoever on demand in our segments from reduced consumption resulting from these drugs. So the first point I want to make is that we've seen no impact as of yet.

是的，我願意，約翰。我認為首先，我只是 - 是的，我只是想強調，我們沒有看到這些藥物導致的消費減少對我們細分市場的需求產生任何影響。因此，我想說的第一點是，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何影響。

I think in terms of trying to estimate the future impact I think there are some things that we -- there's plenty of things we don't know. And there are some things that we do know based on history. I think what we don't know is the rate of adoption of these drugs. We don't know what the impact on total consumption will be. We don't know what will happen when people go off the drugs in large numbers. So there's a number of unknowns that I think only time will tell.

我認為，在試圖估計未來影響方面，我認為有一些事情我們——還有很多事情我們不知道。根據歷史，我們確實知道一些事情。我認為我們不知道的是這些藥物的採用率。我們不知道這對總消費會產生什麼影響。我們不知道當人們大量戒毒時會發生什麼事。因此，我認為還有很多未知因素，只有時間才能證明一切。

What we do know is the food and beverage industry, over many, many years, over decades, has been fantastic at innovating to address consumer needs as they change and evolve over time. Think about the evolution towards lower fat, low sugar, less salt, organic. The food and beverage industry has navigated those trends really successfully through innovation and through adapting product portfolios to suit whatever consumers are prioritizing at that point in time. So we know that, that's been the history and that's been the track record. And I expect that, that would be the same going forward.

我們所知道的是，多年來，數十年來，食品和飲料行業在滿足消費者不斷變化和發展的需求方面一直表現出色。想想向低脂肪、低糖、少鹽、有機的演變。食品和飲料產業透過創新和調整產品組合以滿足消費者當時的優先需求，真正成功地駕馭了這些趨勢。所以我們知道，這就是歷史，這就是業績記錄。我希望未來也是如此。

And the other thing that we know is to the extent there's reduction in portion sizes or serving sizes, it tends to and has historically been very good for packaging intensity. And units of packaging have tended to go up as portions have gone down and as serving sizes have been reduced. So I think it's early days, as you said. I would lean more on the things that we know to have been true historically and probably put more emphasis or more weight on those factors than the things that we don't know at this stage.

我們知道的另一件事是，在某種程度上，份量或份量的減少，往往並且在歷史上一直對包裝強度非常有利。隨著份量的減少和份量的減少，包裝單位往往會增加。所以我認為正如你所說，現在還為時過早。我會更依賴我們所知道的歷史上真實的事情，並且可能比我們現階段不知道的事情更加重視或重視這些因素。

Got it. And just second question for Michael, if I could. Page 11 of the news release, obviously, shows that reconciliation between reported and adjusted earnings. We can see that the hyperinflation impacts were higher than last year. And Russia-Ukraine costs were higher as well. So what were the key drivers of that? And should we expect to see those Russia-Ukraine costs reduce going forward?

知道了。如果可以的話，這是麥可的第二個問題。新聞稿的第 11 頁顯然顯示了報告收益和調整後收益之間的調節。我們可以看到，惡性通貨膨脹的影響比去年更大。俄羅斯-烏克蘭的成本也更高。那麼，其主要驅動因素是什麼？我們是否應該期望看到俄羅斯與烏克蘭的成本未來會降低？

Yes. Sure, John. I can take that one. The Russia-Ukraine costs are really the -- that's the cost of the restructuring. So we've moved into the program, and Ron touched on the program earlier, the structural program, where we've committed to spend about $170 million in cash from the Russia proceeds across some plant closures. So there'll be 7 to 10 plant closures, some SG&A rightsizing. And we've -- so they are the restructuring costs there, and they're going to continue through the year. You'll see those continue on.

是的。當然，約翰。我可以接受那個。俄羅斯和烏克蘭的成本實際上是重組的成本。因此，我們已經開始實施該計劃，羅恩早些時候談到了該計劃，即結構性計劃，我們承諾從俄羅斯收益中支出約 1.7 億美元現金，用於關閉一些工廠。因此，將會有 7 到 10 家工廠關閉，一些 SG&A 規模也會調整。我們已經——所以它們是那裡的重組成本，而且它們將持續到今年。你會看到這些繼續下去。

It's -- and obviously, from that restructuring, we're going to generate the $50 million in EBIT benefits, $35 million of which will come in H2 and then a further $15 million into FY '25. So you should expect to see a continuation of some costs in that line. In relation to Argentina, there was -- Argentina is a hyperinflation economy and we have to account for Argentina in certain ways. And really, that's just -- there was a devaluation in August, and that's the devaluation impact on the monetary assets, which was higher than it was in the prior year. But again, that seems to have eased at the moment, but we'll see where that goes as we work through the year.

顯然，透過這次重組，我們將產生 5,000 萬美元的息稅前利潤，其中 3,500 萬美元將在下半年實現，然後在 25 財年再產生 1,500 萬美元。因此，您應該會看到該領域的一些成本會持續存在。就阿根廷而言，阿根廷是一個惡性通膨經濟體，我們必須以某些方式考慮到阿根廷。事實上，這只是──八月出現了貶值，也就是貶值對貨幣資產的影響，比前一年更高。但同樣，目前這種情況似乎有所緩解，但我們將在今年的工作中看到這種情況的發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell-Crawford with Barrenjoey.

你的下一個問題來自布魯克坎貝爾克勞福德和巴倫喬伊。

Ron, just earlier on, you mentioned about the destocking in the health care segment likely to continue in the second half. Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you mentioned that. Just what -- can you provide some color there on why you think that's going to play out and why you might have more visibility on destocking in that part of the market versus other categories that you serve?

羅恩，剛才您提到醫療保健領域的去庫存可能會在下半年繼續。如果我錯了請糾正我，我想你提到過這一點。您能否提供一些信息，說明為什麼您認為這種情況會發生，以及為什麼與您服務的其他類別相比，您在該市場部分的去庫存方面可能有更多的知名度？

Yes, good question. You've got that right. I did refer to destocking accelerating really through the first quarter in health care, especially in the medical device side of that business. And it really comes down to the fact that there were some real supply constraints over the last 12 to 18 months in that segment or in these products that we supply into medical, predominantly, but also pharma in some product categories where we and the rest of the industry live through real raw material shortages, which, I think, led to some stock buildup in some segments.

是的，好問題。你說得對。我確實提到醫療保健領域的去庫存在第一季確實加速了，特別是在該業務的醫療設備方面。這實際上歸結為這樣一個事實：在過去12 到18 個月中，該細分市場或我們主要供應醫療的這些產品中存在一些真正的供應限制，但在我們和其他公司的某些產品類別中也有製藥。該行業經歷了真正的原材料短缺，我認為這導致了某些領域的庫存累積。

And so we're now on the other end of that. And the raw materials are now more available. There's no longer a shortage and we can supply in real-time. And so customers are sitting on a reasonable amount of inventory that needs to be worked down. And I think we started to see that in the first quarter. I think we'll see that continue into the second half of this fiscal year.

所以我們現在處於另一端。而且現在原材料更容易取得。不再短缺，我們可以即時供應。因此，客戶擁有合理數量的庫存需要減少。我認為我們在第一季就開始看到這一點。我認為我們會看到這種情況持續到本財年下半年。

Okay. And just 1 quick follow-up. On Slide 13 here, you just talked to some progress you're making on design in packaging to be recycled, great progress there over the years. But in Flexible Packaging, there's still 11% of the portfolio that isn't designed to be recycled and there's no trials underway at the moment by the looks of that graph. So can you just talk to that part of the portfolio? What's the plan? And do you have a commitment still to have 100% of that portfolio designed to be recycled by 2025?

好的。只需 1 次快速跟進。在投影片 13 中，您剛剛談到了在可回收包裝設計方面取得的一些進展，多年來取得了巨大進展。但在軟包裝領域，仍有 11% 的產品組合不是為可回收而設計的，從該圖來看，目前還沒有進行任何試驗。那你能談談投資組合的那部分嗎？計劃是什麼？您是否仍承諾在 2025 年將 100% 的投資組合進行回收？

Yes. Look, we're going to continue to shrink that part of the graph. So the 11% you're referring to is 6% lower than it was a year ago, and we've been making really good progress. It's substantially improved over even 3, 4 years ago, and we're going to continue to close that gap. Look, are we going to get all the way to 100%? I'm not sure. I think we're going to get really close.

是的。看，我們將繼續縮小圖表的那部分。所以你提到的 11% 比一年前低了 6%，我們一直在取得非常好的進展。與三、四年前相比，它已經有了很大的改善，我們將繼續縮小這一差距。看看，我們能一路達到 100% 嗎？我不知道。我想我們將會非常接近。

Some of the more sophisticated structures where the material is providing multiple types of functionality, whether it's barrier or sealant strength or physical strength, there are a number of different components that go into some of the more sophisticated materials that we make. Those will take the longest. But we're still at it. We're hard at it, and we haven't wavered in our ambition to get to 100%. And so we've got our sights on closing that gap.

在一些更複雜的結構中，材料提供多種類型的功能，無論是阻隔性、密封劑強度或物理強度，我們製造的一些更複雜的材料中含有許多不同的成分。這些將花費最長的時間。但我們仍在努力。我們很努力，也沒有動搖達到 100% 的目標。因此，我們的目標是縮小這一差距。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

I'll make it quick. So Ron, if we think about the $200 million last year of temporary savings, if that's where you framed it; and the $70 million so far this year. At the end of the day, how much of that truly will be temporary? And how much do you think will be structural?

我會盡快處理的。所以，羅恩，如果我們考慮去年 2 億美元的臨時儲蓄，如果這就是你所說的；以及今年迄今的 7000 萬美元。歸根究底，其中有多少確實是暫時的？您認為結構性的因素有多少？

I know it's hard to say we won't hold it to the basis point, but if you're in our seat trying to model Amcor, what would you try to bake in? And then just a minor question. I thought I heard you say or Mike, maybe it was you, that 2Q in terms of earnings and EBITDA might be flat to slightly down versus 1Q. I just wanted to make sure I heard that correctly.

我知道很難說我們不會將其保持在基點，但如果您坐在我們的座位上嘗試為 Amcor 建模，您會嘗試融入什麼？然後只是一個小問題。我想我聽到你或麥克說，也許是你，第二季度的利潤和 EBITDA 可能與第一季持平甚至略有下降。我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的。

Yes. So I can take the second point there, George. Yes, you heard that correctly. I mean, Q2 -- Q1 and Q2 typically are pretty similar. If you look over the history of Amcor, pretty similar. We're not expecting anything to be different in this dynamic. I mean, Q2 is going to be broadly in line with Q1, perhaps marginally less, but H1 as per our expectations that we've outlined, so no change there whatsoever.

是的。所以我可以談第二點，喬治。是的，你沒聽錯。我的意思是，Q2——Q1 和 Q2 通常非常相似。如果你回顧一下 Amcor 的歷史，你會發現非常相似。我們預計這種動態不會有任何不同。我的意思是，第二季將與第一季大致一致，也許略有下降，但根據我們概述的預期，第一季不會有任何變化。

Yes. Look, on the cost side, George, I'm not going to parse it down and give you a number. What I would say is most of the cost that's come out has come out of the operational side. The overhead portion of the cost reduction is certainly going to stay out. On the plant side, to the extent we've driven procurement benefits, those will be sustained. And then to the extent that we've taken costs out by removing shifts, then obviously, we'll put those shifts back on as volumes return. So I would just describe it more in terms of the buckets of costs that have come out. We don't think about that whole quantum of cost as being temporary necessarily. We do think there are some that stays out of the business even as volumes return.

是的。聽著，在成本方面，喬治，我不會分析它並給你一個數字。我想說的是，大部分成本都來自營運方面。成本削減的管理費用部分肯定不會被考慮在內。在工廠方面，只要我們推動了採購效益，這些效益就會持續下去。然後，如果我們透過取消輪班來降低成本，那麼顯然，隨著產量的恢復，我們將重新啟用這些輪班。所以我只想用已經產生的成本來更多地描述它。我們並不認為全部成本一定是暫時的。我們確實認為，即使銷量回升，仍有一些公司不會參與這項業務。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Ron for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給羅恩，讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Thanks again to everyone who's joined the call today. Thank you for your questions, and thanks for your interest in Amcor. And operator, with that, we'll close the call.

好的。再次感謝今天加入電話會議的所有人。感謝您提出問題，也感謝您對 Amcor 的興趣。接線員，這樣我們就結束通話了。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。