Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jay, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Amcor Third Quarter 2024 Results Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

謝謝你的支持。我叫 Jay，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我謹歡迎大家參加 Amcor 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Tracey Whitehead。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's Fiscal 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Call. Joining today is Peter Konieczny, Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝業者，也謝謝大家參加 Amcor 的 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天加入的是臨時執行長 Peter Konieczny；和財務長邁克爾·卡薩門托。

Before I hand over, a few items to note. On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call. Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in that press release and the presentation.

在我移交之前，有幾點需要注意。在我們的網站 amcor.com 的投資者部分下，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和簡報，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。請注意，我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，相關調節可在該新聞稿和簡報中找到。

Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. Reference can also be made Amcor's SEC filings, including our statement on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details. (Operator Instructions) With that, over to you, P.K.

評論還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天簡報中的第二張投影片列出了可能導致未來結果與目前估計不同的幾個因素。也可以參考 Amcor 的 SEC 文件，包括我們在表格 10-K 和 10-Q 上的聲明，以了解更多詳細資訊。 （操作員指示）接下來，就交給你了，P.K.

Thank you, Tracey, and thank you to all who have joined us for today's call. Prior to discussing our third quarter performance, I want to spend a few moments recognizing my predecessor, Ron Delia, and his many accomplishments at Amcor.

謝謝你，特雷西，也感謝所有參加我們今天電話會議的人。在討論我們第三季的表現之前，我想花一些時間來表彰我的前任 Ron Delia 以及他在 Amcor 的許多成就。

In the last few years alone, Ron led us through the transformational acquisition and integration of Bemis, the largest acquisition in the company's history, successfully and safely guided the business through a pandemic and made the difficult and correct decision to divest our business in Russia. And most recently, Ron directed our teams in navigating a particularly challenging economic period.

僅在過去的幾年裡，Ron 就帶領我們完成了Bemis 的轉型收購和整合，這是公司歷史上規模最大的收購，成功、安全地引導業務度過了疫情，並做出了剝離我們在俄羅斯業務的艱難而正確的決定。最近，羅恩指導我們的團隊度過了一個特別充滿挑戰的經濟時期。

And now I speak for the Board, our global management team and our employees around the world, in thanking Ron for his leadership, guidance and dedication during his 18 years with Amcor and 9 years as CEO. I've worked closely with Ron, our Board and the other members of our executive team over many years to help shape and execute our strategy, and I'm honored to take the leadership reins in an interim capacity at this time.

現在，我代表董事會、我們的全球管理團隊和世界各地的員工感謝 Ron 在 Amcor 工作 18 年和擔任執行長 9 年期間的領導、指導和奉獻。多年來，我一直與羅恩、我們的董事會和執行團隊的其他成員密切合作，幫助制定和執行我們的策略，我很榮幸此時以臨時身份擔任領導職務。

Today, Amcor is the established industry leader in our key markets and geographies, has world-class talent and clearly differentiated commercial innovation capabilities, all providing us with multiple opportunities to capture high-value growth. Importantly, the business is also well positioned to continue benefiting from the proactive steps taken by our leaders across the company to align the cost base with recent challenging market conditions.

如今，Amcor 已成為我們關鍵市場和地區的行業領導者，擁有世界一流的人才和明顯差異化的商業創新能力，所有這些都為我們提供了實現高價值成長的多種機會。重要的是，該業務也處於有利位置，可以繼續受益於我們整個公司領導者採取的積極措施，使成本基礎與最近充滿挑戰的市場條件保持一致。

The results of those decisive actions were again evident in our third quarter financial performance as we showed strong earnings leverage across the business. Third quarter year-over-year volume performance also improved on a sequential basis, and we expect this trend to continue driving stronger earnings growth as we close fiscal year '24.

這些果斷行動的結果在我們第三季的財務表現中再次得到體現，因為我們在整個業務中展現了強大的獲利槓桿。第三季銷售較去年同期表現也較上季改善，我們預計，在 24 財年結束時，這一趨勢將繼續推動更強勁的獲利成長。

My role right now is to ensure we stay focused and on track and that we capitalize on the strong position we're in to maintain momentum and further accelerate earnings growth. It is a team effort and will drive success, and I'm surrounded and supported by credible leaders and talented team players throughout our organization.

我現在的職責是確保我們保持專注並走上正軌，並利用我們所處的強勢地位來保持勢頭並進一步加速盈利增長。這是團隊的努力，將推動成功，整個組織中值得信賴的領導者和才華橫溢的團隊成員圍繞著我並提供支持。

As seen on Slide 3, my near-term priorities are simple. First, ensure Amcor continues to provide a safe and healthy work environment for our global workforce. Second, stay close to our key stakeholders, including our employees and customers, and finish our 2024 fiscal year strongly. After an improved third quarter performance, we are well positioned to do so, and we've raised our full year guidance today.

如幻燈片 3 所示，我的近期優先事項很簡單。首先，確保 Amcor 繼續為我們的全球員工提供安全健康的工作環境。其次，與我們的主要利害關係人（包括我們的員工和客戶）保持密切聯繫，並強勢完成 2024 財年。在第三季業績改善之後，我們已經做好了實現這一目標的有利條件，並且今天我們提高了全年指引。

Third, build on the momentum we have worked hard to deliver across the business, and as we work through our planning cycle for fiscal '25, set clear priorities to ensure our momentum continues. And fourth, provide stability for the business and keep our teams focused on delivering for all our stakeholders by reinforcing that. Our strategy has not changed, our agenda has not changed and our priorities have not changed.

第三，以我們在整個業務中努力實現的勢頭為基礎，在我們完成 25 財年的規劃週期時，制定明確的優先事項，以確保我們的勢頭持續下去。第四，為業務提供穩定性，並透過強化這一點，讓我們的團隊專注於為所有利害關係人提供服務。我們的策略沒有改變，我們的議程沒有改變，我們的優先事項沒有改變。

Moving to Amcor's Q3 performance, starting with safety on Slide 4. Our commitment to health and safety of our teams remains our #1 priority, and we continue to focus on providing a safe and healthy work environment. 72% of our sites have been injury-free for the past 12 months or longer, and we've experienced a 19% reduction in injuries compared to the first 9 months of fiscal '23. Safety is deeply embedded in Amcor's culture and is a critical cornerstone of our success.

前往 Amcor 第三季的業績，從投影片 4 上的安全開始。我們 72% 的工廠在過去 12 個月或更長時間內沒有發生過傷害事故，與 2023 財年的前 9 個月相比，我們的傷害事故減少了 19%。安全深植於 Amcor 的文化中，是我們成功的關鍵基石。

Turning to our key messages for today on Slide 5. First, outperformance in the underlying business resulted in adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that exceeded the expectations we set out in February. Our Flexibles and Rigid Packaging segment each delivered adjusted EBIT growth, leading to Amcor returning to year-over-year earnings growth a quarter sooner than we anticipated. Improved working capital performance through the year also resulted in a year-to-date increase in adjusted free cash flow.

轉向我們今天在投影片 5 上傳達的關鍵訊息。我們的軟包裝和硬包裝部門均實現了調整後的息稅前利潤增長，導致 Amcor 比我們預期早一個季度恢復同比盈利增長。全年營運資本績效的改善也導致年初至今調整後自由現金流的增加。

Second, as I mentioned earlier, our third quarter volume trajectory improved significantly on a sequential basis as destocking abated across most end markets, and we experienced higher customer demand in several of our businesses. While this is clearly an encouraging and positive trend, our teams remain highly focused on continuing to control costs, and this helped us deliver a third consecutive quarter of improved earnings leverage and a return to earnings growth.

其次，正如我之前提到的，隨著大多數終端市場去庫存的減少，我們第三季的銷售軌跡較上季顯著改善，而且我們的一些業務的客戶需求更高。雖然這顯然是一個令人鼓舞和積極的趨勢，但我們的團隊仍然高度專注於繼續控製成本，這幫助我們連續第三個季度實現了盈利槓桿的改善和盈利增長的回歸。

Third, our March quarter financial performance and expected further momentum in our fourth quarter gives us the confidence to increase our full year adjusted EPS guidance range to $0.685 to $0.71 per share and reaffirm our guidance for adjusted free cash flow between $850 million and $950 million for the fiscal year. We believe we have turned the corner after a challenging calendar 2023, and we expect our sequential volume and earnings growth trajectories will continue to improve, which is supported by the demand trends experienced across the business in the first weeks of April.

第三，我們3 月份季度的財務業績和預期第四季度的進一步發展勢頭使我們有信心將全年調整後每股收益指導範圍提高至每股0.685 美元至0.71 美元，並重申我們對調整後自由現金流的指導範圍為8.5 億美元至9.5 億美元。我們相信，在經歷了充滿挑戰的 2023 年之後，我們已經度過了難關，我們預計我們的連續銷量和盈利增長軌跡將繼續改善，這得到了 4 月前幾週整個業務的需求趨勢的支持。

Finally, we remain confident in our capital allocation framework and strategy for long-term growth. We believe the strength of our market positions, our opportunities for investment and our execution capabilities, along with our commitment to a compelling and growing dividend, make a convincing investment case for Amcor.

最後，我們對我們的資本配置框架和長期成長策略仍然充滿信心。我們相信，我們的市場地位優勢、投資機會和執行能力，以及我們對令人信服且不斷增長的股息的承諾，為 Amcor 提供了令人信服的投資理由。

Moving to Slide 6 for a summary of our financial results. The first 9 months of fiscal '24 continued to reflect significant benefits from our proactive cost actions. Three consecutive quarters of strong operating leverage helped offset the unfavorable impact of 7% lower year-to-date sales, leading to a decline in adjusted EBIT of 3%. We believe we've reached an inflection point in the trajectory of earnings and volumes with our Q3 results, and we are pleased with our financial results in the March quarter.

請前往投影片 6，以了解我們的財務表現摘要。 24 財年的前 9 個月持續反映我們積極主動的成本行動所帶來的顯著效益。連續三個季度強勁的營運槓桿幫助抵消了年初至今銷售額下降 7% 的不利影響，導致調整後息稅前利潤下降 3%。我們相信，第三季的業績已經達到了獲利和銷售軌跡的轉折點，我們對三月季度的財務業績感到滿意。

Better-than-anticipated demand trends and continued strong cost performance resulted in EBIT and earnings per share ahead of our expectations entering the quarter. The underlying business saw a return to profit growth in the third quarter with adjusted EBIT up 3% compared with last year. Volume trends improved as the broad-based destocking experienced in the December quarter abated and customer demand strengthened.

好於預期的需求趨勢和持續強勁的成本效益導致本季的息稅前利潤和每股收益超出了我們的預期。第三季基礎業務恢復利潤成長，調整後息稅前利潤較去年成長 3%。隨著去年第四季廣泛去庫存的減弱和客戶需求的增強，銷售趨勢有所改善。

Our teams also continue to focus on cost reduction and productivity initiatives and delivered another quarter of outstanding results with approximately $130 million in total cost savings, including approximately $15 million of benefits from structural cost initiatives. These benefits, combined with improving volume trends, resulted in another quarter of improved earnings leverage. Interest and tax expects were modestly higher than the prior year, in line with our expectations, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.178, grew by 1%.

我們的團隊也繼續專注於降低成本和提高生產力計劃，並在另一個季度取得了出色的業績，總成本節省約為 1.3 億美元，其中包括結構性成本計劃帶來的約 1500 萬美元的收益。這些好處，加上銷售趨勢的改善，導致獲利槓桿又一個季度得到改善。利息和稅收預期小幅高於上年，符合我們的預期，調整後每股收益為 0.178 美元，成長 1%。

Q3 net sales were down 6% on a comparable constant currency basis, which primarily reflects overall volumes 4% lower than the prior year. This is predominantly related to expected ongoing weakness, including further destocking in health care categories and in the North American beverage business, which collectively represent approximately 30% of Amcor's total sales.

以可比固定匯率計算，第三季淨銷售額下降 6%，這主要反映了總銷量比上年下降 4%。這主要與預期的持續疲軟有關，包括醫療保健類別和北美飲料業務的進一步去庫存，這些業務合計約佔 Amcor 總銷售額的 30%。

Across the remaining 70% of our business, overall net volumes were relatively flat with last year, a significant improvement compared with the December quarter, and the business delivered volume growth across several categories and geographies. Outside of health care, we believe destocking is now largely behind us.

在我們剩下的 70% 業務中，整體淨銷量與去年相對持平，與 12 月所在季度相比有了顯著改善，並且該業務在多個類別和地區實現了銷量增長。除了醫療保健之外，我們認為去庫存現在基本上已經過去了。

Price/mix for Q3 had an unfavorable impact on sales of approximately 3%, which is a result of greater volume declines in high-margin health care categories, which we anticipated and called out last quarter. We continue to return significant cash to shareholders through a compelling and growing dividend and share repurchases, and which totaled approximately $570 million through the first 9 months of the year.

第三季的價格/組合對銷售額產生了約 3% 的不利影響，這是由於高利潤醫療保健類別的銷售下降幅度更大，我們上季就預期並指出了這一點。我們繼續透過引人注目且不斷增長的股息和股票回購向股東返還大量現金，今年前 9 個月的現金總額約為 5.7 億美元。

I'll turn it over to Michael now to provide some further color on the financials and our outlook.

我現在將其轉交給邁克爾，以提供有關財務狀況和我們的前景的更多資訊。

Thanks, PK, and hello, everyone. Beginning with the Flexibles segment on Slide 7 and focusing on our Q3 performance. Net sales for Q3 were down 6%, reflecting an unfavorable price/mix impact of 4% and a 2% decline in overall volumes, which was a significant improvement of 8 percentage points compared with the December quarter. As we anticipated and called out last quarter, volumes for health care products remained weak and destocking continued, particularly in North America and Europe.

謝謝PK，大家好。從幻燈片 7 上的柔性部分開始，重點關注我們第三季的表現。第三季的淨銷售額下降了 6%，反映出 4% 的不利價格/組合影響以及總銷量下降 2%，與 12 月所在季度相比顯著改善了 8 個百分點。正如我們上季度預期和指出的那樣，醫療保健產品的銷售仍然疲軟，庫存持續減少，特別是在北美和歐洲。

In total, health care volumes were down double digits, and this had an unfavorable impact of approximately 3% on overall segment volumes and was the primary driver of the 4% unfavorable mix in the quarter. Across the balance of our Flexibles portfolio, net volumes grew approximately 1% in the quarter, with growth in several end markets, including meat, pet food, cheese and unconverted film and foil, and we also saw growth across a number of emerging markets.

總體而言，醫療保健業務量下降了兩位數，這對整個細分市場業務量產生了約 3% 的不利影響，也是本季 4% 不利組合的主要驅動因素。在我們軟包裝產品組合的其餘部分中，本季度淨銷量增長了約1%，其中包括肉類、寵物食品、奶酪和未加工的薄膜和鋁箔在內的多個終端市場的增長，而且我們還看到了許多新興市場的成長。

Across North America and Europe, third quarter net sales declined at high single-digit rates, unfavorably impacted by a mid-single-digit lower volumes and unfavorable price/mix related to declines in health care categories. Excluding health care, across these 2 regions, we saw mid-single-digit volume growth in cheese, and a strong, sequential improvement in meat and pet care volumes, which were flat and up low single digits for the quarter, respectively.

在北美和歐洲，第三季淨銷售額以高個位數下降，這是受到銷售中個位數下降以及與醫療保健類別下降相關的不利價格/組合的不利影響。不包括醫療保健，在這兩個地區，我們看到起司銷售出現中等個位數增長，肉類和寵物護理銷售出現強勁的連續增長，本季度分別持平和低個位數增長。

Across the Asian region, net sales were modestly higher than the prior year. China grew volumes for the third consecutive quarter, and volume growth in Thailand, India and the Philippines also helped offset lower volumes in Southeast Asian health care business. In Latin America, the business delivered good volume growth in Brazil, Mexico and Peru. Q3 adjusted EBIT of $358 million was 5% higher than last year on a comparable constant currency basis. Strong cost performance through the quarter, including from restructuring initiatives, combined with broadly improving demand trends, led to another quarter of strong earnings leverage, and EBIT margins increased by 170 basis points to 13.8%.

在整個亞洲地區，淨銷售額略高於上年。中國的銷售量連續第三個季度成長，泰國、印度和菲律賓的銷售成長也幫助抵消了東南亞醫療保健業務銷售的下降。在拉丁美洲，該業務在巴西、墨西哥和秘魯實現了良好的銷售成長。以可比固定匯率計算，第三季調整後息稅前利潤為 3.58 億美元，比去年高出 5%。本季強勁的成本績效（包括重組舉措）加上需求趨勢的普遍改善，導致另一個季度的獲利槓桿強勁，息稅前利潤率增長 170 個基點，達到 13.8%。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 8. Q3 net sales were 8% lower on a comparable constant currency basis, mainly reflecting lower volumes. While overall volumes were down 8% for the quarter, this represents a meaningful improvement over the December quarter. In North America, overall beverage volumes continue to be impacted by soft consumer and customer demand in Amcor's key end markets, along with some lingering destocking. Total beverage volumes were down 11%, improving sequentially from the 19% decline we experienced in December quarter, which was impacted by significantly more destocking.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的剛性包裝。儘管本季總銷量下降了 8%，但這與 12 月所在季度相比有了顯著改善。在北美，整體飲料銷售量持續受到 Amcor 主要終端市場消費者和客戶需求疲軟以及持續的去庫存的影響。飲料總銷量下降了 11%，較 12 月季度下降 19% 有所改善，這一下降是受到庫存大幅減少的影響。

Latin American volumes were in line with last year with growth in Brazil and Colombia offset by weaker demand in Argentina. We are pleased to see the Rigid Packaging business return to earnings growth, with adjusted third quarter EBIT up modestly over last year. Strong earnings leverage resulting from a continued focus on cost reduction and productivity measures and the realization of benefits from restructuring initiatives more than offset lower volumes, leading to an 80 basis point increase in EBIT margins to 8.7% for the quarter.

拉丁美洲的銷售量與去年持平，但巴西和哥倫比亞的成長被阿根廷需求疲軟所抵消。我們很高興看到剛性包裝業務恢復獲利成長，調整後的第三季息稅前利潤比去年小幅成長。持續關注降低成本和生產力措施以及實現重組舉措帶來的效益帶來的強勁盈利槓桿足以抵消銷量下降，導致本季度息稅前利潤率增長 80 個基點，達到 8.7%。

Moving to cash on the balance sheet on Slide 9. Adjusted free cash flow for the first 9 months was approximately $100 million ahead of last year, mainly driven by improved working capital performance and successfully reducing inventory levels for the fifth consecutive quarter. Leverage at 3.4x is broadly in line with the first half and within the range of expected outcomes for the third quarter.

投影片 9 的資產負債表轉向現金。 3.4 倍的槓桿率與上半年基本一致，並且在第三季的預期結果範圍內。

As a reminder, the business is cycling through temporary increases in working capital, and trailing 12-month EBITDA remains at lower than historic levels, reflecting the divestiture of our Russian business in December 2022. Looking ahead, we continue to expect leverage will decrease to approximately 3x at the end of our fiscal year, supported by seasonally stronger earnings and cash flow in our fiscal fourth quarter.

提醒一下，該業務正在經歷營運資本臨時增加的循環，而過去12 個月的EBITDA 仍低於歷史水平，反映出我們於2022 年12 月剝離了俄羅斯業務。在第四財季季節性強勁的獲利和現金流的支持下，我們財年末的成長率約為 3 倍。

This brings me to our outlook on Slide 10. As PK noted earlier, we are raising our full year guidance for adjusted EPS to $0.685 to $0.71 per share to reflect our performance in the underlying business in the third quarter and our expectation that volumes will continue to improve through the balance of the year. We also remain focused on controlling costs and expect to deliver further savings in Q4, including from our structural initiatives.

這讓我想到了我們對幻燈片10 的展望。以及我們對銷售量將持續成長的預期透過這一年的平衡來改善。我們也繼續專注於控製成本，並預計在第四季度進一步節省開支，包括我們的結構性舉措。

For fiscal 2024, we continue to expect the underlying business to contribute organic earnings growth in the plus or minus low single-digit range, with share repurchases adding a benefit of approximately 2% and favorable currency translation contributing a benefit of up to 2%. This is offset by negative impact of approximately 3% related to the sale of our Russian business in December 2022, the impact which was all in the first half. We also expect a negative impact of up to 6% from higher interest and tax expense, which takes into account our updated estimate for the full year net interest expense of between $310 million to $320 million.

對於 2024 財年，我們繼續預期基礎業務將貢獻正負低個位數範圍內的有機盈利增長，其中股票回購帶來約 2% 的收益，有利的貨幣換算帶來高達 2% 的收益。這被 2022 年 12 月出售俄羅斯業務帶來的約 3% 的負面影響所抵消，該影響全部發生在上半年。我們也預期較高的利息和稅收支出將產生高達 6% 的負面影響，其中考慮到我們對全年淨利息支出 3.1 億至 3.2 億美元的最新估計。

We are confident we will build on our third quarter performance, and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter is expected to grow over last year by mid-single digits on a comparable constant currency basis. And overall volumes in the fourth quarter are expected to be down in the low single-digit range, primarily due to ongoing destocking in health care categories and continued weak consumer and customer demand in North American beverage.

我們有信心在第三季的業績基礎上再接再厲，第四季度調整後的每股收益預計將比去年同期增長中個位數，以可比較的固定匯率計算。第四季的整體銷售量預計將下降至低個位數範圍，這主要是由於醫療保健類別的庫存持續減少以及北美飲料的消費者和客戶需求持續疲軟。

We expect the volume improvement we experienced in the third quarter to continue as we progress through the fourth quarter, which will position us well as we enter fiscal 2025. We have also reaffirmed our guidance range for adjusted free cash flow of $850 million to $950 million for the year. So with that, I'll hand back to PK.

我們預計，隨著第四季度的進展，第三季的銷售改善將繼續下去，這將使我們在進入2025 財年時處於有利地位。美元至9.5 億美元今年。那麼，我將回到PK。

Thank you, Michael. In closing, on Slide 11, our Q3 financial results, guidance for the balance of the fiscal year and our expectation that we will continue to build earnings momentum in fiscal '25 all highlight that Amcor is a very well-positioned business.

謝謝你，麥可。最後，在幻燈片 11 中，我們的第三季度財務業績、本財年餘額的指導以及我們對 25 財年將繼續增強盈利勢頭的預期都突顯了 Amcor 是一家定位非常有利的企業。

Amcor's industry leadership across the globe is well established. Our differentiated innovation capabilities are assisting the world's best-known brands and smaller companies in achieving their objectives to protect, preserve and promote their products while enabling them to meet the sustainability commitments they have made to the stakeholders, and Amcor's talented employees around the world are capitalizing on growth opportunities in priority categories, emerging markets and through sustainable offerings while also continuing to closely focus on cost controls.

Amcor 在全球的產業領導地位已確立。我們差異化的創新能力正在幫助世界上最知名的品牌和小型公司實現保護、保存和推廣其產品的目標，同時使他們能夠履行對利益相關者做出的可持續發展承諾，Amcor 在世界各地的才華橫溢的員工利用優先類別、新興市場和永續產品的成長機會，同時繼續密切關注成本控制。

We're confident we will continue to see positive momentum given the actions we have taken and continue to take across our operations to invest in growth, reduce cost and improve productivity. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, my role right now is to ensure we stay focused and on track and that we capitalize on the strong position we are in to maintain momentum and further accelerate earnings growth.

我們相信，鑑於我們已經採取的行動，我們將繼續看到積極的勢頭，並將繼續在我們的業務中採取投資成長、降低成本和提高生產力的行動。正如我在電話會議開始時提到的，我現在的職責是確保我們保持專注並走上正軌，並利用我們所處的強勢地位來保持勢頭並進一步加速盈利增長。

The continued safety of our people will always be at the top of Amcor's agenda, but a very close second for me right now is to keep our teams focused on delivering for all our stakeholders by reinforcing that our strategy, our agenda and our priorities have not changed. Our Q3 volume trajectory and financial performance underscores our confidence in stronger earnings growth momentum as the challenges we faced in calendar '23 are put further behind us. We have raised our full year EPS guidance, and we anticipate delivering mid-single-digit earnings growth in Q4.

我們員工的持續安全將始終是Amcor 議程的首要任務，但對我來說，目前緊隨其後的第二件事是，透過強化我們的策略、議程和優先事項，讓我們的團隊專注於為所有利害關係人提供服務。我們第三季的銷售軌跡和財務業績突顯了我們對更強勁的獲利成長動能的信心，因為我們在 23 年面臨的挑戰已被進一步拋在身後。我們上調了全年每股收益指引，預計第四季獲利將實現中個位數成長。

Our performance in the first few weeks of April supports this expectation, and our commitments to our longer-term growth and value creation strategy gives us line of sight to a return to growth in line with our shareholder value creation model.

我們四月份前幾週的業績支持了這一預期，我們對長期成長和價值創造策略的承諾使我們能夠根據股東價值創造模式恢復成長。

Operator, we're now ready to turn the line over to questions.

接線員，我們現在準備將線路轉入提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess first off, it just sounds like volume surprised you to the upside during your third quarter. Do you think that's just a function of 2Q coming in lower than forecast, just given aggressive year-end inventory destocking by your customers? Or do you think this is more of a sustainable improvement that you're going to build upon as you look out to your fiscal year '25?

我想首先，聽起來第三季的成交量上升讓你感到驚訝。您是否認為這只是由於客戶在年底積極去庫存而導致第二季業績低於預期？或者您認為這更像是您在展望 25 財年時將要在此基礎上進行的可持續改進？

Yes. Thanks. It's a great question. I mean there's a couple of things to take away here from the discussion of the quarter. The first one really is that volumes improved, the second one is that we had great cost performance, and the third one, really, is that we believe the momentum carries over into the Q4.

是的。謝謝。這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，從本季的討論中可以得出一些結論。第一個確實是銷量有所改善，第二個是我們具有出色的性價比，第三個實際上是我們相信這種勢頭會延續到第四季度。

But let me get back to the volume question. So significant improvement sequentially on volumes from the second to the third quarter. To remind ourselves, second quarter, we were down 10%. Third quarter, we were coming in 4% down versus prior year. And when you look at the 4% that we were down, it pretty much equally splits between two drivers.

但讓我回到音量問題。從第二季到第三季度，銷售量連續顯著改善。提醒自己，第二季度，我們下降了 10%。第三季度，我們的業績比去年同期下降了 4%。當你看到我們下降的 4% 時，你會發現這幾乎是由兩個司機平均分配的。

That's the market impacts, and by that, I mean consumer demand and our exposure to categories and customers, and then the second one is destocking. So that made up the 4% decline. And when you -- and another way to look at that is the 4% decline was pretty much all driven by destocking in health care and North American beverage. That also means that the balance of the portfolio ended up being pretty flat.

這就是市場影響，我指的是消費者需求以及我們對品類和客戶的接觸，第二個是去庫存。這彌補了 4% 的跌幅。從另一個角度來看，4% 的下降幾乎全部是由醫療保健和北美飲料的去庫存所推動的。這也意味著投資組合的餘額最終相當持平。

And we're pretty much pleased with this outcome because when you think about it, health care and North American beverage is about 30% of our business, that means the balance of the portfolio, 70%, came in flat. Now when I take a step back and we look at the third quarter volume performance, now there's a few things that we take away.

我們對這一結果非常滿意，因為仔細想想，醫療保健和北美飲料約占我們業務的 30%，這意味著投資組合的其餘部分（70%）持平。現在，當我退後一步，看看第三季的銷售表現時，我們得出了一些結論。

The first one is we saw a bit of unwind of a very strong destocking in the December month. And when we discussed the second quarter, we talked about a pretty strong January, and there was a bit of a question mark around how much of that performance was driven by unwind of the December month. And as we sort of left Q3 behind us, we can confirm that the volumes in January and also February, to a certain extent, benefited from a bit of an unwind in an unusually low December month. So that was the first one.

第一個是我們看到 12 月強勁的去庫存有所緩解。當我們討論第二季度時，我們談到了 1 月份的強勁表現，但對於這一業績有多少是由 12 月份的放鬆推動的，還存在一些疑問。隨著第三季的結束，我們可以確認 1 月和 2 月的銷售在一定程度上受益於異常低迷的 12 月的一些放鬆。這是第一個。

But the second thing that we've seen is that our customers perform better, and we talked about that also in the last quarter. The background here is that customers are -- particularly large customers, are talking more and more and responding more and more towards turning the dial a bit towards a better sort of balance between volumes and margins. So we've seen that come through.

但我們看到的第二件事是我們的客戶表現更好，我們也在上個季度談到了這一點。這裡的背景是，客戶——尤其是大客戶，正在越來越多地談論並做出越來越多的反應，以尋求在銷售和利潤之間實現更好的平衡。所以我們已經看到了這一點。

And then the third one is pretty much what we expected to a certain extent, that the destocking would abate. And that pretty much happened with the exception of health care and some lingering destocking in North American beverage. So look, that's pretty much the discussion of the third quarter. But as I have the floor on volumes, let me just make two more comments in breaking it down into the segments here because I think the color is important.

第三個在某種程度上幾乎是我們所預期的，即去庫存將會減弱。除了醫療保健和北美飲料領域持續的去庫存之外，這種情況幾乎都發生了。所以看，這幾乎就是第三季的討論。但由於我要就卷進行發言，所以讓我再發表兩點評論，將其分為幾個部分，因為我認為顏色很重要。

In Flexibles, we came from being 10% down in the second quarter to being 2% down in the third quarter, and again, the customer performance sort of drove improved market impact performance and then the destocking significantly abated. And when you look at the Flexibles segment, it was all made up by the health care impact in terms of the decline. The balance of the portfolio is flat to even slightly up.

在彈性商品方面，我們從第二季的下降 10% 下降到第三季的下降 2%，而且，客戶績效再次推動了市場影響績效的改善，然後庫存大幅減少。當您查看靈活的細分市場時，您會發現這一切都是由醫療保健影響的下降所彌補的。投資組合的餘額持平甚至略有上升。

And then just one more comment on Rigids and then I'll stop. Rigids went from 12% down in the second quarter to 8% down in the third quarter, so also an improvement. We continue to see a soft market, but the destocking as significantly rated in Rigids also.

然後再對 Rigid 發表一點評論，然後我就停止了。 Rigids 從第二季的 12% 下降到第三季的 8%，因此也有所改善。我們繼續看到疲軟的市場，但去庫存也受到了嚴格的重視。

So across the board, really, really good improvement. And when you think back to what I discussed, there's components in where the -- that we believe to be sustainable, no question. And that relates to, one, further abatement of the destocking; and second, to good customer performance that we continue -- that we believe we will continue to see also in Q4.

所以從整體來看，確實有很好的改進。當你回想我所討論的內容時，毫無疑問，我們相信其中有一些組件是可持續的。這涉及到，一是進一步減少去庫存；其次，我們將繼續保持良好的客戶表現——我們相信我們將在第四季度繼續看到這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Kang of CLSA.

你的下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Daniel Kang。

Just a question on health care. You mentioned health care continued to fall double digits in 3Q, which from memory sounds quite similar to the December quarter. Can you comment on whether there was any sequential improvement in 3Q?

只是一個關於醫療保健的問題。您提到醫療保健在第三季度繼續下降兩位數，從記憶中聽起來與 12 月季度非常相似。您能否評論一下第三季是否有環比改善？

And just from your visibility of customer stock levels and given the low comps that we should be working with going forward, is it reasonable to expect that first half fiscal year '25 to show some improvement in health care volumes?

僅從您對客戶庫存水準的了解以及考慮到我們未來應該處理的低競爭情況來看，預期 25 財年上半財年醫療保健數量會有所改善是否合理？

Let me help you with health care a bit. So the main driver of the health care performance really has been the destocking, and the destocking sort of abating from Q2 to Q3. I would say, overall, the demand situation has not really changed much in health care, so you would see overall health care is marginally better between the second and the third quarter. We do expect further improvement in health care though because the destocking will further sort of reduce in the fourth quarter.

讓我在醫療保健方面為您提供一些幫助。因此，醫療保健業績的主要驅動力確實是去庫存，而且從第二季度到第三季度，去庫存有所減弱。我想說，總的來說，醫療保健的需求情況並沒有真正改變太多，所以你會看到第二季和第三季之間整體醫療保健略有改善。不過，我們確實預期醫療保健將進一步改善，因為第四季的去庫存將進一步減少。

As a matter of fact, when we guide to low single-digits volume decline in the fourth quarter, we would believe that most of that is driven by health care -- all of that is driven by health care. And we don't really know exactly when the destocking will come to an end. It will certainly sort of stretch into the fourth quarter. Maybe we'll see a bit of an -- we see a bit of an impact also in the first quarter of fiscal '25, but that would be as far as I would go with everything that I know at this point in time.

事實上，當我們預計第四季度銷量下降幅度為個位數時，我們認為其中大部分是由醫療保健驅動的——所有這些都是由醫療保健驅動的。我們並不確切知道去庫存何時結束。它肯定會延續到第四季。也許我們會在 25 財年第一季看到一些影響，但這只是我目前所知道的一切。

Maybe one more thing that I would want to add to is that, again, we're talking about low single digits decline in volumes in the fourth quarter. But with a further improving trajectory, we're expecting to exit the fourth quarter flat on volumes.

也許我想補充的另一件事是，我們再次討論第四季度銷量的低個位數下降。但隨著軌跡進一步改善，我們預計第四季銷量將持平。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I was hoping to maybe talk a little bit about the operating leverage in the business or lack thereof on the deleverage side, just given the profit performance, especially in Flexibles, relative to the volume and mix declines you still saw in the period.

我希望能談談業務的營運槓桿或去槓桿化方面的缺乏，只是考慮到利潤表現，特別是在靈活的，相對於您在此期間仍然看到的數量和組合下降。

Hoping to maybe just aggregate a little bit the amount of fixed cost reductions actually realized in the period versus the variable cost kind of efficiencies and productivity gains in the quarter, and how kind of durable you think those variable costs and productivity improvements prove to be if volumes start to normalize. Or how much cost would have to leak into the system to serve incremental volumes from here?

希望能夠稍微匯總一下在此期間實際實現的固定成本削減量與本季度可變成本類型的效率和生產率的提高，以及您認為這些可變成本和生產率的提高的持久性如何，如果成交量開始正常化。或是需要多少成本滲透到系統中才能從這裡提供增量服務？

Thanks for the question, Adam. I'll take that. It's Michael here. Yes, look, on the cost side, we're really pleased with the cost performance of the business in Q3. We took another kind of $130 million out of cost, which included some benefit from the restructuring program that we've got in place. So we now are now starting to see that come through. So that was about $15 million, as expected.

謝謝你的提問，亞當。我會接受的。我是麥可。是的，看，在成本方面，我們對第三季業務的性價比非常滿意。我們還從成本中扣除了 1.3 億美元，其中包括我們已經實施的重組計劃帶來的一些好處。所以我們現在開始看到這一點的實現。正如預期的那樣，這大約是 1500 萬美元。

And if you just take a step back and think about the cost work we've been doing, what are we actually doing? There's two things that we're focused on. Firstly, the operational side of the business, so cost productivity and cost flexing in a lower volume environment. And then the second is that structural program that we've talked about in response to trying to offset some of the divested Russia earnings.

如果你退一步想想我們一直在做的成本工作，我們實際上在做什麼？我們重點關注兩件事。首先，業務的營運方面，因此在較低產量的環境中降低生產力和成本彈性。第二個是我們討論過的結構性計劃，旨在抵消部分剝離的俄羅斯收入。

So in the quarter, we saw benefits from both, and we saw that in both the Flexibles and Rigid segment as well. So that was pleasing. And look, on the operational side, what have we been doing? We've been really both proactive and aggressive in flexing the cost base, and that's taking into account the lower demand environment.

因此，在本季度，我們看到了兩者的好處，並且我們在柔性和剛性部分也看到了這一點。所以這很令人高興。看看，在營運方面，我們一直在做什麼？考慮到需求較低的環境，我們在調整成本基礎方面確實非常積極。

So we've been certainly eliminating shifts to take labor out where we can, reducing the overtime to take that labor cost out, taking extended shuts when we're aligning with some of our customers, so we're going to take extended shuts over long weekends and other things to get the plants fully closed and get the cost out that way.

因此，我們肯定會消除輪班，以盡可能減少勞動力，減少加班以降低勞動力成本，在與一些客戶合作時延長停工時間，所以我們將延長停工時間長週末和其他事情讓工廠完全關閉並以此方式降低成本。

We're driving procurement. Honestly, in a lower volume environment, that's also an opportunity for us to drive procurement savings, and we've been really focused on that, and the team has done really good work there. And we've been tightly controlling our discretionary spend. So that's kind of on the operating side.

我們正在推動採購。老實說，在銷售量較低的環境中，這也是我們推動採購節省的機會，我們一直非常關注這一點，團隊在那裡做了非常出色的工作。我們一直嚴格控制可自由支配的支出。這就是操作方面的情況。

And then on the structural side, that's more about plant closures. So we've announced 7 plant closures and 2 restructures. And more recently, we've actually completed the closure around 3 or 4 of those. So we've now started to see that benefit flow through as we anticipated. And that program was going to deliver about a $50 million EBIT benefit over the program, $35 million predominantly in the second half of FY '24, and then another $15 million into FY '25.

然後在結構方面，更多的是關於工廠關閉。因此，我們宣布關閉 7 家工廠和 2 家重整工廠。最近，我們實際上已經完成了其中 3 到 4 個的關閉。因此，我們現在開始看到這種效益如我們預期的那樣流動。該計劃將帶來約 5,000 萬美元的息稅前利潤，其中 3,500 萬美元主要在 24 財年下半年實現，然後在 25 財年另外實現 1,500 萬美元。

And we're pleased to report that we are now seeing those benefits come through, and in Q3, that contributed $15 million. The majority of that was in Flexibles, but also a few million in Rigids. So again, good cost control in both of those areas. And it's difficult to determine how much of that is going to stick with the business long term, but I guess what we would say is that we've taken a pretty significant head count out of the business.

我們很高興地報告，我們現在看到這些效益正在顯現，並且在第三季貢獻了 1500 萬美元。其中大部分是柔性的，但也有幾百萬是剛性的。再說一次，在這兩個領域都需要良好的成本控制。很難確定其中有多少人會長期堅持業務，但我想我們會說的是，我們已經從業務中削減了相當多的員工。

If you think about the structural cost out, I mean, those structural costs that have come out and they're permanent, so the $50 million over time that comes through will be permanent. I mean on the procurement benefits, they'll be sustained. The productivity, we'd anticipate -- over the last several quarters, we've improved productivity, improved efficiency, being able to do more with less. So again, we'd expect that to continue. But as the volumes come back, we will have to put labor back into the business, rebuild shifts, but it's not going to be linear.

如果你考慮結構性成本，我的意思是，那些已經出現的結構性成本是永久性的，因此隨著時間的推移，5000 萬美元的支出將是永久性的。我的意思是，就採購效益而言，它們將持續下去。我們預期的生產力——在過去的幾個季度中，我們提高了生產力、提高了效率，能夠用更少的資源做更多的事情。同樣，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。但隨著產量的恢復，我們將不得不將勞動力重新投入到業務中，重建班次，但這不會是線性的。

So we'd expect that we will continue to see margin improvement, and this will just contribute to Amcor's ongoing margin enhancement. We typically, over a long period of time, have added 20 to 30 basis points in margin a year. And this program -- we'd expect to continue that through the cost measures that we've taken here, and you saw that in the quarter.

因此，我們預計利潤率將繼續改善，這將有助於 Amcor 利潤率的持續提高。在很長一段時間內，我們通常每年增加 20 到 30 個基點的保證金。這個計劃——我們希望透過我們在這裡採取的成本措施繼續下去，你在本季度看到了這一點。

I mean we delivered a 120 basis point increase on the back of volumes improving, but cost take out really strong, and the performance there across the business was great. So we feel pretty good about where we're at. There's still more cost to come out. You'll see further benefits from the structural programs in Q4 as well as some ongoing efficiency benefits from the actions we've already taken.

我的意思是，在銷售改善的背景下，我們實現了 120 個基點的成長，但成本支出非常強勁，整個業務的表現也很棒。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。出來還需要付出更多的代價。您將看到第四季度的結構計劃帶來的更多好處，以及我們已經採取的行動帶來的一些持續的效率好處。

And Michael, I would add that we're particularly pleased with the work that's been done in the Rigids segment here because we acknowledged that the business returned to active profit growth in the third quarter on the back of a pretty soft environment still. So that speaks to a good leverage in that business.

邁克爾，我想補充一點，我們對剛性部門所做的工作特別滿意，因為我們承認，在相當疲軟的環境下，該業務在第三季度恢復了積極的利潤增長。因此，這說明該業務具有良好的槓桿作用。

Your next question comes from the line of John Purtell of Macquarie.

你的下一個問題來自麥格理的約翰·珀特爾（John Purtell）。

I'll just ask my one. The sequential volume pickup in Flexibles, just from the commentary in the release, so that appeared to mainly come from emerging markets rather than developed markets. So was there much sequential volume improvement in North America and Europe, for example?

我只問我的一個。僅從新聞稿中的評論來看，軟包裝的銷售量連續上升，因此似乎主要來自新興市場而不是已開發市場。那麼，例如北美和歐洲的銷售是否有很大的環比改善？

Yes, that's also a great question. So in terms of our country sort of performance or the different regions, you're right, we saw low single-digit growth in emerging markets in the third quarter, which was obviously pleasing and positive. And on the developed markets, we saw bigger sequential improvement while we're still negative in terms of our volume performance versus prior year.

是的，這也是一個很好的問題。因此，就我們國家或不同地區的表現而言，你是對的，我們在第三季度看到新興市場的低個位數成長，這顯然是令人高興和積極的。在已開發市場，我們看到了更大的環比改善，但與去年相比，我們的銷售表現仍然為負。

Now you got to keep in mind that the bigger markets were the ones that were more heavily hit with inventory builds and now with a normalization, therefore, the destocking, and that would also make sense, particularly with our exposure to health care in those markets.

現在你必須記住，更大的市場是那些受到庫存增加打擊更嚴重的市場，現在已經正常化，因此，去庫存也是有意義的，特別是考慮到我們在這些市場中接觸醫療保健。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的理查德·約翰遜。

PK, I think I'm right in saying you pretty much worked in every part of the business except Rigids. I'd be really interested just to get a sense of how you feel about the strategic positioning of the group overall at the moment, but also particularly focusing on Rigid Plastics, which is perhaps in a slightly different position. And with the backdrop of, in the beverage market anyway, other substrates appearing to be recovering a lot quicker than plastics.

PK，我認為我說得對，除了 Rigid 之外，你幾乎在業務的各個部分都工作過。我真的很感興趣，只是想了解一下您對目前集團整體戰略定位的看法，但也特別關注硬質塑料，它的立場可能略有不同。無論如何，在飲料市場的背景下，其他基材的復甦速度似乎比塑膠快得多。

Yes, Richard, thanks for the question. I mean there is -- we're in a particular situation right now with the business. We've had a couple of tough quarters behind us with volume weakness, and we've worked really hard to position the business as well as possible to take advantage of the volumes improving again. And we believe that's exactly the situation we're in right now.

是的，理查德，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是——我們現在的業務處於特殊情況。由於銷量疲軟，我們經歷了幾個艱難的季度，我們非常努力地定位業務，並盡可能利用銷售再次改善的機會。我們相信這正是我們現在所處的情況。

So we said in discussing -- after discussing the second quarter, we said we feel like the second quarter for the business was the low point. And particularly now as we're having the third quarter on our back, I think we can confirm that. That's where we stand, and we believe that we will see a better volume performance in Q4. So that's the starting point.

所以我們在討論中說——在討論第二季之後，我們說我們覺得第二季是業務的低點。尤其是現在，我們已經進入了第三季度，我想我們可以確認這一點。這就是我們的立場，我們相信我們將在第四季度看到更好的銷售表現。這就是起點。

In that environment, we felt we want to get, first of all, back to the earnings capacity of the businesses that we have without asking strategic questions about the businesses. And we believe, particularly to Rigid Plastics, you're right. I've been around in Amcor a bit, Rigid Plastics, I've not managed myself. But when we look at Rigid Plastics, we think it's a good business strategically.

在這種環境下，我們覺得我們首先希望恢復現有業務的獲利能力，而不詢問有關業務的策略問題。我們相信，特別是對於硬塑膠來說，您是對的。我在 Amcor、Rigid Plastics 待過一段時間，但我還沒有管理好自己。但當我們審視硬質塑膠時，我們認為從戰略角度來看這是一項很好的業務。

And I'll give you a couple of views here from my side. First of all, it's a scale business. It's an important business for Amcor. There's no question about it. And secondly, when you look at the portfolio of the business, it's actually a number of different businesses under one roof. We -- often, we focus very strong in discussing North American beverage, but it's more than that.

我將從我的角度向您提供一些觀點。首先，這是一個規模化的業務。這對 Amcor 來說是一項重要業務。毫無疑問。其次，當你查看業務組合時，它實際上是同一個屋簷下的許多不同業務。我們經常非常專注於討論北美飲料，但不僅如此。

We have a Specialty Containers business, so where we started to diversify. We have a Latin American business, and we have a closures business with our [BC&A] business. So it's a portfolio of businesses. We have really good industry positions. And across Rigids where we participate, we like the customer relationships that we have. We have good solid customer relationships. And on top of that, also in the overall context of plastic, we have a strong sustainability profile, particularly in that business, which is really important.

我們有特種貨櫃業務，因此我們開始多元化發展。我們有拉丁美洲業務，我們的 [BC&A] 業務也有閉包業務。所以它是一個業務組合。我們擁有非常好的行業地位。在我們參與的 Rigids 中，我們喜歡我們擁有的客戶關係。我們擁有良好且穩固的客戶關係。最重要的是，在塑膠的整體背景下，我們擁有強大的永續形象，特別是在該業務中，這非常重要。

And finally, I'll come back to what I said at the beginning. We've done a lot of strengthening in the business and the restructuring, for example, with the footprint optimization that we've gone through when we've generated a leverage that has enabled us to return the business back to profit growth. So I think where we stand right now is we want to see the volumes come back, and then we want to see what the business can deliver. There's no question that we want the business to deliver more, and that's where I would leave it for now.

最後，我會回到我一開始所說的。我們在業務和重組方面做了很多強化工作，例如，我們在產生槓桿作用時進行了足跡優化，使我們的業務恢復了利潤成長。所以我認為我們現在的立場是我們希望看到銷售回升，然後我們希望看看業務可以提供什麼。毫無疑問，我們希望業務能夠提供更多服務，這就是我現在要離開的地方。

By the way, I think -- I don't know if you said it's the Rigid Plastics business or the Rigid Packaging business. Actually, we call it the Rigid Packaging business. It's just a little clarification. Thank you.

順便說一句，我想 - 我不知道你說的是硬質塑膠業務還是硬質包裝業務。實際上，我們稱之為剛性包裝業務。這只是一個小小的澄清。謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of James Wilson of Jarden Australia.

您的下一個問題來自 Jarden Australia 的 James Wilson。

Would you be able to just talk us through the net interest guidance that you guys have put out, particularly what's driving the lower net interest given that leverage looks unchanged in your guidance? I understand that you've had some working capital improvements, but are there anything else that's driving that?

您能否向我們介紹一下你們提出的淨利息指導，特別是考慮到您的指導中的槓桿率看起來沒有變化，是什麼導致了淨利息下降？據我所知，您的營運資金有所改善，但還有其他因素推動這一趨勢嗎？

Yes. No, thanks for the question. You saw us -- we reduced slightly the guidance. Our guidance prior to this quarter was $315 million to $330 million, and we reduced that down to $310 million to $320 million. And look, that's really just on the back of the timing of the cash flows and the working capital improvements.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。你看到了我們——我們稍微減少了指導。本季之前我們的指引值為 3.15 億至 3.3 億美元，我們將其減少至 3.1 億至 3.2 億美元。看，這實際上只是基於現金流和營運資本改善的時間安排。

We saw a little better timing of cash coming into the business, which, as we look at the forecast for the fourth quarter, we can see that phasing and see that there's a little bit of upside there on the interest cost, so we adjusted the guidance range accordingly. But outside of that, there's not a [lot to] it. No real change in the rate profile or the mix of debt.

我們看到現金進入業務的時機更好了，當我們查看第四季度的預測時，我們可以看到這一階段性，並發現利息成本有一點上行空間，因此我們調整了相應的指導範圍。但除此之外，沒有什麼可做的了。利率狀況或債務組合沒有真正的變化。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯。

PK, could you give us a bit more color in terms of some of the trends you're seeing in Flexible, in cheese and protein and some of the other key markets? And relatedly, are you seeing your customers perhaps pushing back some of their sustainability targets [on] one of the larger branded companies, and what are the implications for you in terms of growth as well?

PK，您能否就您在柔性食品、起司和蛋白質以及其他一些主要市場中看到的一些趨勢向我們提供更多資訊？與此相關的是，您是否看到您的客戶可能會推遲對一家較大的品牌公司實施一些永續發展目標，這對您的成長有何影響？

Sure. So in Flexibles, again, a pretty significant improvement in volumes between Q2 and Q3. I did make a comment earlier in terms of the two main drivers here: market impact. We are pretty much -- were flat in the third quarter, and the destocking sort of went to low single digits, and it pretty much is the health care impact of destocking that drove the volume decline versus prior year, and the balance of the portfolio is pretty much flat to slightly growing.

當然。因此，在軟包裝產品中，第二季和第三季的銷售量再次出現了相當顯著的改善。我之前確實就兩個主要驅動因素發表了評論：市場影響。我們在第三季幾乎持平，去庫存量下降到了較低的個位數，這很大程度上是去庫存對醫療保健的影響導致了銷量與去年同期相比的下降，以及投資組合的平衡幾乎持平到略有成長。

Now in terms of the category performance against that, you would remember that we're driving a couple of priority categories here in the business where we believe we have really differentiated products and a good position in the market and where we like the market dynamics. And those would be health care; meat, you have heard us talk to that; protein, protein breaks out in cheese and meat; hot fill beverage, obviously, would be one; pet food; premium coffee and those are really the 5 focused categories that we drive.

現在就類別表現而言，您會記得我們正在業務中推動幾個優先類別，我們相信我們擁有真正差異化的產品並在市場中佔據良好的地位，並且我們喜歡市場動態。這些就是醫療保健；肉，你已經聽到我們談論過它；蛋白質，乳酪和肉類中的蛋白質；顯然，熱灌裝飲料就是其中之一；寵物食品;優質咖啡，這些確實是我們推動的 5 個重點類別。

And we have seen, particularly in pet care, meat and cheese, we've seen growth in the quarter, which we are pleased with. Now I will say these are green shoots, and don't walk away from the call believing that this is like significant growth numbers. These would be low single digits. So we got to stay bolted here. But we like what we see, and we'd love to see a little more.

我們已經看到，特別是在寵物護理、肉類和起司領域，我們看到了本季的成長，我們對此感到滿意。現在我要說的是，這些都是萌芽，不要相信這就像顯著的成長數字而放棄電話。這些將是低個位數。所以我們必須躲在這裡。但我們喜歡我們所看到的，我們希望看到更多。

Maybe a little more color here on cheese, as you particularly asked in North America and Europe, we would be up also on the basis of less destocking. Meat, also less destocking, and some regional wins that we've seen.

也許在起司上多一點顏色，正如您在北美和歐洲特別要求的那樣，我們也會在減少庫存的基礎上上漲。肉類，庫存減少，以及我們看到的一些區域性勝利。

I just want to take the other part of the question, which was, just check my notes here, on the sustainability side and targets being pushed out and the effect on our business. Look, we follow the discussions closely. Actually, we are part of the conversations. And of course, we noticed that some industry participants have started to think about resetting their targets for their sustainability initiatives.

我只想回答問題的另一部分，即，請檢查我的筆記，關於永續發展方面和正在推出的目標以及對我們業務的影響。看，我們密切關注討論。事實上，我們是對話的一部分。當然，我們注意到一些產業參與者已經開始考慮重新設定永續發展計畫的目標。

At the end of the day, we're talking about essentially putting circularity in place, a circular economy for plastic, which will be the critical initiative to keep plastic waste out of the environment. That requires a lot of things that have to come together, and we're going to have to work together. Nobody can do that alone. And I think the understanding in the industry right now is, after having worked very closely on the topic, that it may make a little -- take a little more time to get to the targets that we've set years ago.

歸根究底，我們討論的是本質上落實循環性，即塑膠循環經濟，這將是防止塑膠廢棄物進入環境的關鍵舉措。這需要很多事情必須結合在一起，我們必須共同努力。沒有人能夠獨自做到這一點。我認為，在對這個主題進行了非常密切的研究之後，目前業界的理解是，它可能會花費更多的時間來實現我們幾年前設定的目標。

I mean I don't know if you particularly think about Unilever, who's come out with pushing the targets backwards, but they were the first ones to come out and make a commitment, and that was sort of in 2017, if I have that correctly in my mind. And over the years, they have learned a lot, and the industry has learned a lot. So I think it's a matter of additional realism to just simply [accept what] they're saying.

我的意思是，我不知道你是否特別想到聯合利華，他們提出將目標向後推，但他們是第一個站出來做出承諾的人，那是在 2017 年，如果我沒記錯的話在我腦海裡。這些年來，他們學到了很多，整個產業也學到了很多。所以我認為簡單地[接受]他們所說的是一個額外的現實主義問題。

Now in terms of Amcor, we have made a pledge in 2018. We're the first packaging company out there to pledge that we'll make 100% of our packaging recyclable, reusable or compostable by 2025, and we're pretty much around the corner. We do not have the need to push our targets out at this point in time. We're making really good progress because we have, at this point in time, roughly 90% of our packaging portfolio in recycle-ready structures, or we have those alternatives available, and we're ready to sell them to customers when they want them.

現在就 Amcor 而言，我們在 2018 年做出了承諾。 。我們目前沒有必要推遲我們的目標。我們取得了非常好的進展，因為目前我們大約 90% 的包裝組合採用了可回收結構，或者我們有這些替代品，並且我們準備在客戶需要時將其出售給他們。

So everybody needs to do their piece. We're holding on to our targets right now. We don't think that it means anything to us that others are pushing their targets out. We're very committed to our sustainability targets like the industry is, particularly our big customers are, particularly Unilever is. So we continue to drive that with full force.

所以每個人都需要做好自己的事情。我們現在正在堅持我們的目標。我們認為其他人推動他們的目標對我們來說沒有任何意義。我們非常致力於我們的永續發展目標，就像整個產業一樣，特別是我們的大客戶，尤其是聯合利華。因此，我們將繼續全力推動這一目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell of Barrenjoey.

你的下一個問題來自 Barrenjoey 的 Brook Campbell。

Just with respect to trajectory in the business, this financial year has been better than expected. In the third quarter, you saw some EPS growth versus back in Feb. The expectation was for the third quarter to be down a bit at EPS. And despite this, you've kept your fourth quarter EPS growth at mid-single digits, which is unchanged.

僅就業務軌跡而言，本財年的表現優於預期。與 2 月相比，第三季的每股收益有所增長。儘管如此，第四季每股收益成長仍維持在中個位數，這一點並沒有改變。

So my question really is, why wouldn't the better performance for the first 3 quarters continue into the fourth quarter? Any reasons what's holding you back from upgrading that fourth quarter expectation would be great.

所以我的問題是，為什麼前三個季度更好的表現不能延續到第四季？任何阻礙你提高第四季預期的原因都會很大。

Yes. Thanks, Brook, it's Michael here. I can take that one for you. So yes, look, we finished Q3 with EPS growth, which was really pleasing. And that was on the back of a couple of things, slightly better volumes really coming out of that December period as PK touched on earlier.

是的。謝謝，布魯克，我是麥可。我可以幫你拿那個。所以，是的，看，我們第三季的每股盈餘成長了，這真的令人高興。這是在幾件事的背後，正如 PK 早些時候提到的那樣，12 月期間的銷量確實略有好轉。

When we worked our way through January, clearly, we saw an improved performance, and some of that was relating to some of the unwind out in December. We weren't 100% sure on how that might translate for the rest of the quarter. And what we saw in February was some more unwind, clearly, from December, which helped improve the performance in the March quarter and led to us being able to deliver EPS growth, which was really pleasing.

當我們一月份努力工作時，顯然我們看到了業績的改善，其中一些與 12 月的一些放鬆有關。我們不能 100% 確定這在本季剩餘時間內會如何轉換。我們在 2 月看到的情況顯然比 12 月有所緩解，這有助於改善 3 月份季度的業績，並使我們能夠實現每股收益成長，這確實令人高興。

So you've seen us increase the full year guidance. We've taken the full year guidance to $0.685, $0.71, so an increase there. That's really on the back of that improved performance in Q3. In Q4, we're still expecting sequential improvement, both in volumes and profit. And clearly, the drivers of that, we're going to see that sequential improvement in the volume really held back by the continued destocking in health care. That's really the key point that's holding the volumes back in Q4 as PK touched on.

所以你已經看到我們增加了全年指導。我們將全年指導價定為 0.685 美元、0.71 美元，因此有所增加。這確實得益於第三季業績的改善。在第四季度，我們仍然預期銷售和利潤都會持續改善。顯然，在其驅動因素中，我們將看到醫療保健領域持續去庫存確實阻礙了銷售的持續改善。正如 PK 所提到的，這確實是第四季銷售回落的關鍵點。

That in itself has some unfavorable mix, which we've talked to in the past. So that will continue into Q4, although start to abate, and certainly the unfavorable mix from health care will unwind as volumes start to normalize into the future there. But Q4 is still expecting good cost out, good leverage through the P&L from that cost initiative as well as the structural piece adding through there. And we're also expecting the earnings trajectory to improve for that mid-single digit. We get benefits from the absorption in Q4, which is seasonally our biggest quarter as well.

這本身就存在一些不利的因素，我們過去已經討論過。因此，這種情況將持續到第四季度，儘管開始減弱，隨著未來銷售開始正常化，醫療保健帶來的不利組合肯定會緩解。但第四季仍預期良好的成本支出，透過該成本計畫的損益表以及結構性部分的良好槓桿作用。我們也預期獲利軌跡將改善至中個位數。我們從第四季度的吸收中受益，這也是我們季節性最大的季度。

So we feel pretty good about where the outlook is for Q4. We have confidence in delivering within that range. What we've seen in the early parts of April confirmed the volume outlook, so we feel confident there. And we just felt that we didn't need to get ahead of ourselves at this point in time. Clearly, we've given you a range, we've given the marketing range. So that's a reasonable range in Q4.

因此，我們對第四季度的前景感到非常滿意。我們有信心在這個範圍內交付。我們在四月初所看到的情況證實了銷售前景，因此我們對此充滿信心。我們只是覺得此時此刻我們不需要超前。顯然，我們已經給了你一個範圍，我們已經給了行銷範圍。所以這是第四季的合理範圍。

And if the volumes come in a little better than what we're expecting, then, clearly, that's one way that the outcome for the full year could get towards the upper end of the range, along with cost, and let's see where raw materials impact as well. So overall, I'd say we feel pretty good about where we've landed in Q3 and what's ahead of us in Q4 to deliver a good year.

如果產量比我們的預期好一點，那麼，顯然，這是全年結果以及成本可能達到範圍上限的一種方式，讓我們看看原材料在哪裡影響也。總的來說，我想說，我們對第三季的情況以及第四季的前景感到非常滿意，以實現美好的一年。

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Chau of MST.

您的下一個問題來自 MST 的 Keith Chau。

Peter, a question just around the PPWR that was voted into European Parliament earlier in this month. Can you give us a sense of what Amcor is planning with respect to any changes to the regulation around plastics in the European Union?

Peter，這是一個圍繞 PPWR 的問題，本月早些時候已被歐洲議會投票表決。您能否向我們介紹一下 Amcor 對於歐盟塑膠法規的任何變化有何計劃？

I know there's some impacts that are expected to be, I guess, a headwind for the plastics industry in Europe by 2030. But just be keen to hear your views on whether you think there is a headwind for the Amcor Flexibles business and if there are any mitigation strategies that are being put in place, or whether Amcor is planning ahead to mitigate the headwinds.

我知道到 2030 年，預計會有一些影響對歐洲塑膠產業構成不利影響。 ，或者Amcor 是否提前計劃緩解不利因素。

It's also a great question and obviously falls into our sustainability strategy. Look, I'll start out by saying that we're very supportive of regulatory and legislative developments that sort of drive the whole industry to this circular economy for plastic. And as such, the PPWR is actually welcomed from -- by Amcor and from Amcor because I think we're making -- we're creating an environment that allows us and the whole industry to make more progress into that direction.

這也是一個很好的問題，顯然屬於我們的永續發展策略。首先，我要說的是，我們非常支持監管和立法的發展，這些發展可以推動整個產業走向塑膠循環經濟。因此，PPWR 實際上受到 Amcor 和 Amcor 的歡迎，因為我認為我們正在創造一個環境，​​使我們和整個行業能夠朝著這個方向取得更多進展。

Again, everybody has a role to play. We're sitting in the value chain at pretty much the start. Our job is to come up with structures for plastic packaging that are recycle-ready, that can be recycled, and I said a little earlier that we're making really good progress in hitting our targets by the end of 2025. So when customers want to have these structures, we're ready to provide them to the extent we're not doing that already today, right? So these -- many of the recycle-ready structures are commercial.

再次強調，每個人都可以發揮自己的作用。我們幾乎處於價值鏈的起點。我們的工作是設計出可回收、可回收的塑膠包裝結構，我之前說過，我們在 2025 年底實現目標方面取得了非常好的進展。好提供它們，但我們今天還沒有這樣做，對嗎？因此，許多可回收的結構都是商業化的。

And by creating a regulatory environment, everybody gets level set. And we can work with certainty in certain directions in order to support the business and help the very efficient and high-performing packaging substrate find its place also in the context of sustainability. I mean, there is a place for plastic here. And we got to remind ourselves why we have so much plastic packaging. It's because it's a very efficient and high-performing substrate. The challenge is end of life. The circular economy addresses that, and regulation that gets us into that direction is welcomed.

透過創造監管環境，每個人都可以達到一定的水平。我們可以在某些方向上堅定地開展工作，以支持業務並幫助非常高效和高性能的包裝基材在可持續發展的背景下找到自己的位置。我的意思是，這裡有塑膠的地方。我們必須提醒自己為什麼我們有這麼多塑膠包裝。這是因為它是一種非常有效率且高效能的基材。挑戰是生命的終點。循環經濟解決了這個問題，而引導我們朝這個方向發展的監管受到歡迎。

Your next question comes from the line of Cameron McDonald of E&P.

你的下一個問題來自 E&P 的卡梅倫·麥克唐納 (Cameron McDonald)。

Question for Michael, if I can. Just going back to the interest rate guidance. Can you remind us of what your hedging profile actually looks like? There was -- obviously, last year, you had some significant interest rate exposure. And my understanding is that, that was mainly due to hedging and the exposure to floating rates.

如果可以的話，請向麥可提問。回到利率指引。您能否提醒我們您的對沖概況實際上是什麼樣的？顯然，去年你有一些重大的利率風險。我的理解是，這主要是由於對沖和浮動利率風險。

So as interest rate expectations have been rather volatile in the last month or so, how do we think about your hedging profile in that and the exposure to that changing interest rate environment into FY '25, please?

因此，由於過去一個月左右的利率預期相當不穩定，我們如何看待您的對沖狀況以及 25 財年不斷變化的利率環境的風險敞口？

Yes, sure. I think -- look, the first point we should start, the debt profile today is about 70% fixed, 30% floating. With that, we have no maturities coming off now until the middle of 2025. So from that respect, we've got a bit of flexibility in how we can manage the debt book and the interest exposure. As you look forward, we haven't provided any guidance for FY '25, but clearly, we've given you some guidance for '24.

是的，當然。我認為——看，我們應該開始的第一點是，今天的債務狀況大約有 70% 是固定的，30% 是浮動的。這樣，我們在 2025 年中期之前都不會到期。正如您所期待的，我們尚未為 25 財年提供任何指導，但顯然，我們已經為您提供了 24 財年的一些指導。

If you look at our debt profile and then you look at some of the forward curves over the next 12 months or so, we're not expecting a material movement in our interest expense just based on the debt profile we have and the maturities that we've got coming. So we've got some flexibility to work through how we manage that debt book and that currency exposure as well.

如果你看看我們的債務狀況，然後看看未來 12 個月左右的一些遠期曲線，我們並不認為僅僅根據我們的債務狀況和我們的到期日，我們的利息支出就會發生重大變化。已經來了因此，我們可以靈活地處理如何管理債務帳簿和貨幣風險。

So when you put all that together, we don't see any material change or impact on the interest expense as we look forward into '25. But we'll provide you further guidance on that in August when we provide the full year guidance for FY '25 at that time.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們沒有看到對 25 年利息支出有任何重大變化或影響。但我們將在 8 月為您提供進一步的指導，屆時我們將提供 25 財年的全年指導。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Longo of Morgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根的安東尼·隆戈。

Just a quick one on destocking. You've spoken about that a fair bit already, but how are you ultimately thinking about the restocking cycle in light of some of the early positive customer discussions that you have had to date? And ultimately, what does that inform the top line growth expectations from here? I appreciate there's no guidance, but just how you're thinking about that and philosophies around your customers' inventory management from here as well.

簡單介紹一下去庫存。您已經談過很多次了，但是根據您迄今為止所進行的一些早期積極的客戶討論，您最終如何考慮補貨週期？最終，這對營收成長預期有何影響？我很欣賞這裡沒有任何指導，但只是您如何思考這一點以及圍繞客戶庫存管理的概念。

Look, I'll start and then maybe Michael wants to build on it. The way that we look at this is the destocking that we're seeing currently is really a correction of the industry, of holding too much inventory after a pretty volatile environment, which was driven by partly supply chain shocks that we've seen in the industry sort of derisking and protecting their top line by building inventory, and then there are other reasons.

聽著，我會開始，然後也許麥可想在此基礎上繼續發展。我們看待這個問題的方式是，我們目前看到的去庫存實際上是行業的修正，在相當不穩定的環境之後持有過多的庫存，這在一定程度上是由我們在行業通過建立庫存來降低風險並保護其收入，還有其他原因。

But anyway, what we're seeing right now is that the industry is normalizing across the categories. We see health care a little bit delayed because that's a very conservative industry, and they probably built more because of the dynamics over the last couple of years. And now they have -- they're starting to be confident again in the environment so that they can also reduce their inventory levels again to a normal level.

但無論如何，我們現在看到的是該行業正在各個類別正常化。我們看到醫療保健有點延遲，因為這是一個非常保守的行業，而且由於過去幾年的動態，他們可能會建立更多。現在他們開始對環境再次充滿信心，這樣他們也可以將庫存水平再次降低到正常水平。

Now the new normal is probably different from what it was before. Holding cost of inventories because of interest rates drive that down further. The industry is looking at new efficiency levels in terms of running inventories, and that's what we're going through right now. Going forward, we will see changes in inventory, but those will be tactical or they will go along with the seasonality of the business.

現在的新常態可能與以前有所不同。由於利率的影響，庫存持有成本進一步下降。該行業正在尋求庫存管理方面的新效率水平，這就是我們目前正在經歷的事情。展望未來，我們將看到庫存的變化，但這些變化將是戰術性的，或將與業務的季節性一致。

So I would not think about it as there is a trend to restocking. The industry is coming down to a new normal, and everything that we see from there is going to be tactical or following the seasonality of the different businesses. So that's how I think about it. And therefore, once we have this extraordinary impact behind us, we will see with our category and customer exposure and then also -- hopefully going forward, also a renewed and stronger consumer interest and demand. We will see top line growth.

所以我不會考慮這個，因為有補貨的趨勢。該行業正在走向新常態，我們從那裡看到的一切都將是戰術性的或遵循不同業務的季節性。這就是我的想法。因此，一旦我們產生了這種非凡的影響力，我們將看到我們的品類和客戶曝光度，然後——希望未來也能看到新的、更強勁的消費者興趣和需求。我們將看到營收成長。

Your last question comes from the line of Andrew Scott of Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯·斯科特。

Michael, just a question for you. $40-odd million of below-the-line items there, I see the restructuring charges are up relative to last quarter. Can you talk to us, just two things, cash versus noncash there? And when do we get line of sight to maybe seeing an end of these below-the-line items?

邁克爾，我想問你一個問題。那裡的線下項目價值超過 4000 萬美元，我發現重組費用相對於上季有所上升。能和我們談兩件事嗎：現金與非現金？我們什麼時候才能看到這些線下專案的終結？

Look, Andrew, the main items in the quarter are really around the restructuring program, which we've had in there for the last 12 months or so. That program is pretty much 2/3 of the way through. We've now started to see the benefits come through from that program.

安德魯，你看，本季的主要項目實際上是圍繞重組計劃展開的，我們在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡一直在進行重組計劃。該程序幾乎已完成 2/3。我們現在已經開始看到該計劃所帶來的好處。

You might remember, we committed to invest around $170 million in cash. We've spent on that program to date about $110 million. So we've still got $50 million to $60 million to go. But we are starting to see the benefits come through from that. So we're pretty pleased about the progress. And really, by the end of the calendar year, we'd expect to be most of the way through that program.

您可能還記得，我們​​承諾投資約 1.7 億美元現金。迄今為止，我們已在該計劃上花費了約 1.1 億美元。所以我們還有 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元的資金要支付。但我們開始看到由此帶來的好處。所以我們對進展感到非常高興。事實上，到今年年底，我們預計將完成該計劃的大部分內容。

So that's the way we see it from there. And as I said, we're pleased that we're now getting the benefits, the $15 million in the quarter came through, and we'll expect to build on that in quarter 4 and then into '25. So pretty pleased with where the program's at, and it's on track.

這就是我們從那裡看到的方式。正如我所說，我們很高興我們現在獲得了收益，本季的 1500 萬美元已經實現，我們預計將在第 4 季在此基礎上再接再厲，然後進入 25 年。對該計劃的進展非常滿意，而且一切都步入正軌。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在，我將把電話轉回給管理階層，讓他們發表結束語。

Yes. Thank you, operator. Look, thank you, everybody, for the interest in the company. The only thing that I want to say here before we close the call is we're pretty pleased with the way how the Q3 turned out for us. I hope we were able to demonstrate that we -- this was based on a broad-based volume improvement that we've seen in the business combined with really some good cost performance in the third quarter that also has impacted our margin performance.

是的。謝謝你，接線生。聽著，謝謝大家對公司的興趣。在結束通話之前，我唯一想說的是，我們對 Q3 的表現非常滿意。我希望我們能夠證明，我們——這是基於我們在業務中看到的廣泛的銷售改善，再加上第三季度的一些良好的成本效益，這也影響了我們的利潤率表現。

And more importantly, we believe that we have some underlying momentum here in order to -- that will carry into Q4. So we're very pleased with the situation we're in. We're going to take advantage of the momentum. And with that, we're going to close the call, and we're going to talk to each other again at the end of the fiscal year. Thank you very much.

更重要的是，我們相信我們有一些潛在的動力，以便將這種勢頭延續到第四季度。所以我們對目前的情況非常滿意。至此，我們將結束通話，我們將在本財年結束時再次進行交談。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。