Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Amcor's First Half and Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 Amcor 2024 年上半年及第二季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Tracey, you may begin your conference.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管特雷西懷特海德 (Tracey Whitehead)。崔西，你可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's Fiscal 2024 First Half and Second Quarter Earnings Call. Joining today is Ron Delia, our Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer. Before I hand over, let me note a few items.

謝謝業者，也謝謝大家參加 Amcor 的 2024 財年上半年和第二季財報電話會議。今天加入的是我們的執行長 Ron Delia；和財務長邁克爾·卡薩門托。在我移交之前，讓我記下一些事項。

On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call. Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in the press release and the presentation. Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. And reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details. (Operator Instructions)

在我們的網站 amcor.com 的投資者部分下，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和簡報，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。請注意，我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，相關調節可在新聞稿和簡報中找到。評論還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天簡報中的第二張投影片列出了可能導致未來結果與目前估計不同的幾個因素。如需了解更多詳情，請參閱 Amcor 的 SEC 文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表上的聲明。 （操作員說明）

With that, over to you, Ron.

好了，就交給你了，羅恩。

Thanks, Tracey, and thanks, everyone, for joining Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's second quarter and first half results for fiscal '24. We'll begin with some prepared remarks before opening for Q&A.

謝謝特雷西，也謝謝大家今天與邁克爾和我一起討論 Amcor '24 財年第二季和上半年的業績。在開始問答之前，我們將先做一些準備好的評論。

As seen on Slide 3, our focus on safety remains unwavering, and our significant commitment to providing a safe and healthy work environment continues to be rewarded. 70% of our sites have been injury-free for the past 12 months or longer, and we've experienced a 17% reduction in injuries when compared to the first half of fiscal 2023. Safety is deeply embedded in Amcor's culture and is the #1 priority for our global teams.

正如投影片 3 所示，我們對安全的關注依然堅定不移，我們對提供安全健康工作環境的重大承諾也持續得到回報。我們 70% 的工廠在過去 12 個月或更長時間內沒有發生任何傷害，與 2023 財年上半年相比，我們的傷害減少了 17%。安全深深植根於 Amcor 的文化中，是 #我們全球團隊的第一要務。

Turning to our key messages on Slide 4. First, our reported earnings per share for the second quarter and first half were modestly better than the expectations we set out in October. And improved working capital performance helped drive a year-over-year increase of more than $100 million in adjusted free cash flow.

轉向幻燈片 4 上的關鍵資訊。首先，我們報告的第二季和上半年每股收益略好於我們 10 月設定的預期。營運資本績效的改善有助於推動調整後自由現金流年增超過 1 億美元。

Second, our financial performance through the half was supported by strong and proactive focus on controlling costs. This helped us offset second quarter volumes that we're a couple of percentage points lower than we anticipated. Our teams around the world continue to respond doing an excellent job proactively taking further cost actions.

其次，我們上半年的財務表現得益於對成本控制的積極主動的關注。這幫助我們抵銷了第二季銷售量比預期低幾個百分點的影響。我們世界各地的團隊繼續積極回應，積極採取進一步的成本行動，表現出色。

Third, our first half financial performance puts us on track to deliver against our full year guidance, which we are again reaffirming today. Relative to the first half, we believe Q2 was the low point for earnings growth and we continue to expect the trajectory of adjusted EPS growth to improve through the second half of fiscal '24, including delivering mid-single-digit adjusted earnings growth in the fourth quarter.

第三，我們上半年的財務業績使我們有望實現全年指導，我們今天再次重申這一點。相較於上半年，我們認為第二季是獲利成長的低點，我們繼續預期調整後每股盈餘成長的軌跡將在24 財年下半年有所改善，包括在2020 年實現中個位數調整後獲利成長。第四季。

Our confidence is supported by our improved earnings leverage as well as a number of known factors, we'll cover in more detail later that will benefit earnings through the second half of the fiscal year. Additionally, our volume trajectory has improved generally through January and this underpins our confidence that Q2 marked the low point for volumes.

我們的信心得到了盈利槓桿改善以及許多已知因素的支持，稍後我們將更詳細地介紹這些因素，這些因素將有利於本財年下半年的盈利。此外，一月份我們的銷量軌跡整體有所改善，這增強了我們對第二季標誌著銷量低點的信心。

Finally, we remain confident in our long-term growth and value creation strategy and in our ability to deliver a combination of strong earnings growth and a compelling and growing dividend. The strength of our market positions, execution capabilities and consistent capital allocation framework collectively continue to make a compelling investment case for Amcor.

最後，我們對我們的長期成長和價值創造策略以及我們實現強勁盈利增長和引人注目且不斷增長的股息的能力仍然充滿信心。我們的市場地位、執行能力和一致的資本配置框架的實力繼續為 Amcor 提供令人信服的投資理由。

Moving to Slide 5 for a summary of our financial results. Organic sales on a comparable constant currency basis were down 8% for the half and 10% for the quarter. Price/mix benefits were around 1% for the first half and flat in the second quarter, reflecting moderating inflation, which resulted in reduced pricing actions by our teams. Volumes were down 9% for the first half and down 10% for the December quarter. Second quarter volumes were modestly lower than our October expectations, with the main difference being an acceleration of destocking, especially in the month of December.

請前往投影片 5，以了解我們的財務表現摘要。以可比較固定匯率計算，有機銷售額上半年下降 8%，本季下降 10%。上半年的價格/組合效益約為 1%，第二季持平，反映出通膨溫和，導致我們團隊的定價行動減少。上半年銷量下降 9%，第四季銷量下降 10%。第二季銷售量略低於我們 10 月的預期，主要差異在於去庫存的加速，尤其是 12 月。

First half and December quarter adjusted EBIT was $709 million and $352 million, respectively, modestly above our expectations. On a comparable constant currency basis, declines of approximately 6% in both periods reflect lower volumes, partly offset by benefits related to decisive and proactive cost actions taken across our businesses in response to evolving market dynamics.

上半年和 12 月季度調整後息稅前利潤分別為 7.09 億美元和 3.52 億美元，略高於我們的預期。在可比較的固定匯率基礎上，兩個時期約6% 的下降反映了銷量的下降，但部分被我們為應對不斷變化的市場動態而在整個業務中採取的果斷和主動的成本行動相關的收益所抵消。

In total, our actions reduced costs by more than $200 million in the first half compared to last year, with a reduction of more than $130 million achieved in the second quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.313 and $0.157 per share, respectively, also modestly above our earlier expectations. For both periods, this would count 10% on a comparable basis, reflecting lower adjusted EBIT and the unfavorable impact of higher interest costs.

與去年相比，上半年我們的行動總共減少了超過 2 億美元的成本，第二季減少了超過 1.3 億美元的成本。調整後每股收益分別為 0.313 美元和 0.157 美元，也略高於我們先前的預期。對於這兩個時期，這將在可比較基礎上計算 10%，反映出調整後的息稅前利潤較低以及利息成本較高的不利影響。

Working capital improvement remains a focus and helped drive free cash flow for the first half, well ahead of the same period last year and in line with our expectations. And we returned approximately $390 million of cash to shareholders in the first half through a combination of share repurchases and a growing dividend, which has increased to $0.125 per share.

營運資本的改善仍然是一個焦點，並幫助推動了上半年的自由現金流，遠遠領先去年同期，符合我們的預期。上半年，我們透過股票回購和不斷增長的股息（已增至每股 0.125 美元）相結合，向股東返還了約 3.9 億美元的現金。

I'll turn it over now to Michael to provide some further color on the financials and our outlook.

我現在將其轉交給邁克爾，以提供有關財務狀況和我們的前景的更多資訊。

Thanks, Ron, and hello, everyone. Beginning with the Flexibles segment on Slide 6. Year-to-date, net sales on a comparable constant currency basis were 8% lower, which largely reflects weaker volumes. Volumes were down 9%, mainly due to lower market and customer demand and accelerated destocking.

謝謝羅恩，大家好。從幻燈片 6 中的靈活產品部分開始。年初至今，以可比固定匯率計算的淨銷售額下降了 8%，這在很大程度上反映了銷量的疲軟。銷售量下降 9%，主要是由於市場和客戶需求下降以及去庫存加速。

In North America, first half net sales declined at high single-digit rates driven by lower volumes in categories, including meat, liquid beverage and health care, which more than offset growth in the condiments, snacks and confectionery categories.

在北美，由於肉類、液體飲料和保健品等類別銷售下降，上半年淨銷售額以高個位數下降，這遠遠抵消了調味品、零食和糖果類別的成長。

In Europe, net sales declined at low double-digit rates driven by lower volumes, partly offset by price/mix benefits. Volumes were lower in snacks, coffee, health care and in unconverted film and foil. This was partly offset by higher confectionary volumes.

在歐洲，由於銷售量下降，淨銷售額以兩位數的速度下降，但部分被價格/組合優勢所抵消。零食、咖啡、保健品以及未加工的薄膜和箔材的銷售量較低。這在一定程度上被糖果產量的增加所抵消。

Across the Asian region, net sales were modestly higher than the prior year. Volume growth in Thailand, India and China helped offset lower volumes in the Southeast Asian health care business. In Latin America, net sales declined at high single-digit rates driven by lower volumes mainly in Chile and Mexico, partly offset by growth in Brazil.

在整個亞洲地區，淨銷售額略高於上年。泰國、印度和中國的銷售成長幫助抵消了東南亞醫療保健業務銷售的下降。在拉丁美洲，淨銷售額以高個位數下降，主要是由於智利和墨西哥銷量下降，但部分被巴西的成長所抵消。

First half adjusted EBIT was 5% lower than last year on a comparable constant currency basis as a result of lower volumes, partly offset by favorable price/mix benefits and ongoing actions taken to lower costs increased productivity and strengthen operating cost performance. EBIT margin of 12.6% was comparable to prior year despite a 50-basis-point unfavorable comparison related to the sale of our Russian business last year.

上半年調整後息稅前利潤以可比固定匯率計算比去年低5%，原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格/組合效益以及為降低成本、提高生產力和加強營運成本績效而採取的持續行動所抵消。儘管與去年出售俄羅斯業務有關的 50 個基點不利，但息稅前利潤率為 12.6%，與去年持平。

For the December quarter, reported sales were down 9% on a comparable constant currency basis, and price/mix was relatively neutral compared with last year. Volumes were down 10% in the quarter, reflecting continued soft market and customer demand. Destocking also continued through the quarter accelerating in the month of December and was particularly impactful in health care where volumes were lower than last year by double digits.

12 月季度，以可比較固定匯率計算，報告銷售額下降 9%，價格/組合與去年相比相對中立。本季銷售量下降 10%，反映出市場和客戶需求持續疲軟。去庫存也在整個季度持續進行，並在 12 月加速，這對醫療保健行業影響尤其大，該行業的庫存量比去年下降了兩位數。

In response to market dynamics, the business continued to take decisive cost actions, focusing on operating efficiencies and delivering procurement benefits, limiting discretionary spend and advancing structural cost reduction initiatives. This resulted in another quarter of strong performance, partly offsetting weaker volumes with adjusted EBIT declining 5% on a comparable constant currency basis.

為了因應市場動態，該業務繼續採取果斷的成本行動，重點關注營運效率和提供採購效益，限制可自由支配支出並推動結構性成本削減措施。這導致另一個季度表現強勁，部分抵消了銷量下降的影響，調整後的息稅前利潤按可比較的固定匯率計算下降了 5%。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 7. Year-to-date net sales on a comparable constant currency basis were 8% lower, with price/mix contributing around 1%. Volumes were down 9% for the first half, with lower volumes in North America, partly offset by growth in Latin America. In North America, overall beverage volumes for the first half were 14% lower than last year, including a 13% reduction in hot fill beverage container volumes due to lower consumer and customer demand and elevated levels of destocking through the first half.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的剛性包裝。以可比較的固定貨幣計算，年初至今的淨銷售額下降了 8%，其中價格/組合貢獻了約 1%。上半年銷售量下降 9%，其中北美銷售下降，但部分被拉丁美洲的成長所抵銷。在北美，上半年的整體飲料銷售量比去年減少了 14%，其中由於消費者和客戶需求下降以及上半年去庫存水準提高，熱灌裝飲料容器銷售量減少了 13%。

In Latin America, volumes grew mid-single-digit rates with new business wins in Brazil, Peru and Colombia, partly offsetting lower volumes in Mexico. Adjusted EBIT was 9% lower than last year on a comparable basis, reflecting lower volumes, partly offset by price/mix benefits and favorable cost performance.

在拉丁美洲，隨著巴西、秘魯和哥倫比亞取得新業務，銷量實現中個位數成長，部分抵消了墨西哥銷量下降的影響。調整後息稅前利潤比去年同期下降 9%，反映出銷量下降，但部分被價格/組合優勢和良好的性價比所抵消。

For the December quarter, net sales were also down 10% on a comparable constant currency basis. Price/mix contributed around 2%, and volumes were down 12% for the quarter, reflecting lower volumes in North America, partly offset by new business wins, driving mid-single-digit growth in Latin America.

12 月季度，以可比固定匯率計算，淨銷售額也下降了 10%。本季價格/組合貢獻約 2%，銷量下降 12%，反映出北美銷量下降，但部分被新業務成長所抵消，推動拉丁美洲實現中個位數成長。

Overall, North American beverage volumes were 19% lower for the quarter, reflecting a high single-digit decline from destocking as some of our customers took action to significantly reduce inventories in both hot fill and cold field categories. Volumes were also impacted in the high single-digit range by incrementally softer consumer and customer demand in Amcor's key end markets.

總體而言，本季北美飲料銷量下降了 19%，反映出由於我們的一些客戶採取行動大幅減少熱灌裝和冷場類別的庫存，去庫存導致了高個位數的下降。 Amcor 主要終端市場的消費者和客戶需求逐漸疲軟，銷售也受到了高個位數的影響。

In addition, we had net new business wins in the hot fill category, which partly offset a loss in cold fill as we elected not to retain volumes that fell short of our profitability threshold. Second quarter adjusted EBIT declined by 12% and reflecting lower volumes, partly offset by benefits from continuing to proactively manage costs, including realizing labor savings by taking more plant shutdown days to better align capacity with market dynamics as well as driving procurement benefits.

此外，我們在熱灌裝類別中獲得了淨新業務，這部分抵消了冷灌裝業務的損失，因為我們選擇不保留低於獲利門檻的銷售量。第二季調整後息稅前利潤下降12%，反映出銷量下降，部分被繼續主動管理成本帶來的效益所抵消，包括透過增加工廠停工天數以更好地使產能與市場動態保持一致以及推動採購效益來節省勞力。

Moving to cash and the balance sheet on Slide 8. As Ron covered earlier, adjusted free cash flow for the half came in more than $100 million ahead of last year. With our teams continuing to make progress against our priority to reduce inventories and driving capital increments across the board.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的現金和資產負債表。正如 Ron 之前提到的，上半年調整後的自由現金流比去年多了 1 億美元。我們的團隊繼續在減少庫存和全面推動資本增量的優先事項上取得進展。

Our financial profile remains solid with leverage at 3.4x, broadly in line with the first quarter and where we expected it to be as we cycle through temporary increases in working capital and given trailing 12-month EBITDA now fully reflects the divestiture of our Russian business. Looking ahead, we continue to expect leverage will decrease to approximately 3x at the end of our fiscal year, supported by seasonally stronger earnings and cash flow in the second half.

我們的財務狀況保持穩健，槓桿率為 3.4 倍，與第一季基本一致，也符合我們在臨時增加營運資本期間的預期，而且過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 現在完全反映了我們俄羅斯業務的剝離。展望未來，我們繼續預計，在下半年獲利和現金流季節性強勁的支撐下，本財年末槓桿率將降至約 3 倍。

This brings me to our outlook on Slide 9. As Ron mentioned earlier, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for adjusted EPS of $0.67 to $0.71 per share. We continue to expect the underlying business to contribute organic earnings growth in the plus or minus low single-digit range, with share repurchases adding a benefit of approximately 2%, and favorable currency translation contributing a benefit of up to 2%. This is offset by a negative impact of approximately 3% related to the sale of our Russian business in December '22, the impact of which was all in the first half.

這讓我想到了我們對幻燈片 9 的展望。正如 Ron 之前提到的，我們重申調整後每股收益 0.67 美元至 0.71 美元的全年指引。我們仍預期基礎業務將貢獻正負低個位數範圍內的有機獲利成長，其中股票回購帶來約 2% 的收益，有利的貨幣換算帶來高達 2% 的收益。這被與 22 年 12 月出售俄羅斯業務相關的約 3% 的負面影響所抵消，該影響全部發生在上半年。

We also expect a negative impact of approximately 6% from higher interest and tax expense, which takes into account our estimate for full year net interest expense of between $315 million to $330 million, which is modestly lower than where we were forecasting last quarter. Our full year tax rate expectations are unchanged in the range of 18% to 20%.

我們也預期較高的利息和稅收支出將產生約 6% 的負面影響，其中考慮到我們對全年淨利息支出的估計為 3.15 億至 3.3 億美元，該數字略低於我們上季度的預測。我們的全年稅率預期保持在 18% 至 20% 的範圍內不變。

In relation to phasing, we believe that December quarter marks the low point in terms of Amcor's earnings growth and volume declines. January volumes have improved following heavy customer destocking in December. And while we expect market dynamics to remain volatile in the near term, our volume trajectory is expected to continue to improve through the balance of the year. We anticipate Q3 volumes will be down in the mid-single-digit range, and expect fourth quarter volume declines in the low single-digit range.

就分階段而言，我們認為 12 月季度標誌著 Amcor 獲利成長和銷售下降的低點。繼 12 月客戶大量去庫存後，1 月銷售量有所改善。雖然我們預計市場動態在短期內仍將波動，但我們的成交量軌跡預計將在今年餘下時間繼續改善。我們預計第三季銷量將下降到中個位數範圍，並預計第四季銷量將下降到低個位數範圍。

Taking into account offsetting benefits from cost reduction initiatives and a reduced headwind from higher interest costs compared with last year, we expect third quarter adjusted EPS to be down mid-single digits on a comparable constant currency basis. And for the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted EPS to increase by mid-single digits over the prior year. And Ron will talk through the factors that support this return to growth shortly.

考慮到與去年相比，成本削減措施帶來的抵銷效益以及利息成本上升帶來的不利影響減少，我們預計第三季調整後每股盈餘將在可比較的固定貨幣基礎上下降中個位數。對於第四季度，我們預計調整後每股盈餘將比去年同期成長中個位數。羅恩將很快討論支持經濟恢復成長的因素。

Adjusted free cash flow continues to trend better than last year as we expected and we are again reaffirming our guidance range of $850 million to $950 million for our fiscal '24 full year, which will be up to $100 million higher compared with last year. Our plan to repurchase at least $70 million of Amcor shares in '24 is unchanged, and we continue to pursue value-creating M&A opportunities.

正如我們預期的那樣，調整後的自由現金流繼續好於去年，我們再次重申 24 財年全年的指導範圍為 8.5 億美元至 9.5 億美元，這將比去年​​高出 1 億美元。我們在 2024 年回購至少 7,000 萬美元 Amcor 股票的計畫沒有改變，我們將繼續尋求創造價值的併購機會。

With that, I'll hand back to Ron.

說完，我會把事情還給羅恩。

Thanks, Michael. Prior to opening the call to questions, I want to provide additional insights into our outlook for the balance of the year as well as a reminder, the key components comprising our longer-term model for driving shareholder value.

謝謝，麥可。在開始提問之前，我想就我們對今年剩餘時間的展望提供更多見解，並提醒大家，構成我們推動股東價值的長期模型的關鍵組成部分。

Looking first at the balance of fiscal '24. As I referenced earlier and as highlighted on Slide 10, there are a number of key factors already known to us that give us confidence our earnings trajectory will improve through the second half of the fiscal year. First, the earnings headwind related to the sale of our business in Russia is now fully behind us, eliminating an unfavorable comparative that impacted reported earnings throughout calendar '23. Second, while second half interest expense is expected to be higher than last year, the magnitude of the headwind from the rapid rate increases over the past 18 months begins to abate as we move through the balance of the year.

首先來看24財年的餘額。正如我之前提到的以及投影片 10 中所強調的那樣，我們已知有許多關鍵因素，這些因素使我們有信心我們的獲利軌跡將在本財年下半年有所改善。首先，與出售我們在俄羅斯的業務相關的盈利逆風現已完全過去，消除了影響整個 23 年報告盈利的不利比較。其次，雖然下半年利息支出預計將高於去年，但隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，過去 18 個月利率快速上漲的阻力開始減弱。

Third, we have benefits from structural cost savings of $35 million in the second half with an additional $15 million to benefit fiscal '25. These savings are primarily related to plant closures as we optimize our global footprint. And fourth, earnings leverage has improved due to our commitment to take proactive actions to align our cost structure with evolving market dynamics. This includes eliminating shifts to take out labor reducing over time, driving procurement and maintaining tight control of discretionary spend.

第三，我們受惠於下半年結構性成本節約 3,500 萬美元，以及 25 財年額外的 1,500 萬美元。這些節省主要與我們優化全球足跡時關閉工廠有關。第四，由於我們承諾採取積極行動，使我們的成本結構與不斷變化的市場動態保持一致，獲利槓桿有所改善。這包括消除輪班以隨著時間的推移減少勞動力、推動採購以及嚴格控制可自由支配支出。

In total, over the last 12 months, we reduced headcount by more than 2,000 full-time employees or approximately 5% of our workforce with more than 1,000 of these reductions taken out in the first half of fiscal '24.

總的來說，在過去 12 個月裡，我們裁減了超過 2,000 名全職員工，約佔員工總數的 5%，其中 1,000 多人是在 2024 財年上半年削減的。

From an earnings perspective, operating costs were lower by more than $200 million in the first half of fiscal '24 compared with the prior period. And more than $100 million of this cost reduction was delivered in the second quarter, which is almost double the approximately $70 million delivered in the first quarter. The result has been and will continue to be improved earnings leverage which we've achieved this financial year-to-date despite significantly lower volumes.

從獲利角度來看，24財年上半年營運成本比上一財年降低了2億多美元。第二季實現了超過 1 億美元的成本削減，幾乎是第一季約 7,000 萬美元的兩倍。結果是，儘管銷量大幅下降，但我們在本財年迄今已經實現了獲利槓桿的提高，並將繼續提高獲利槓桿。

As Michael mentioned, we are off to a better start in January and are confident Q2 marks the low point for earnings growth and volume declines and with our overall trajectory expected to improve as we move to the balance of the year.

正如邁克爾所提到的，我們在一月份有了一個更好的開端，並且有信心第二季度標誌著盈利增長和銷量下降的低點，並且隨著我們進入今年剩餘時間，我們的整體軌跡預計將得到改善。

To sum up, we're confident the positive earnings impact from multiple known factors will drive improved momentum in the second half of fiscal '24, including delivering mid-single-digit earnings growth in our fiscal fourth quarter. Importantly, we're not assuming an improving consumer demand environment, and we'll continue to be proactive in taking actions to ensure our cost base and pricing strategies reflect market conditions.

總而言之，我們相信多個已知因素對獲利的正面影響將推動 24 財年下半年的動能改善，包括在第四財季實現中個位數的獲利成長。重要的是，我們並沒有假設消費者需求環境正在改善，我們將繼續積極採取行動，確保我們的成本基礎和定價策略反映市場狀況。

Moving to Slide 11. As we look beyond the second half of this fiscal year, these known factors will serve as important building blocks supporting a return to delivering against our shareholder value creation model, through a combination of strong earnings growth and a compelling and growing dividend, currently yielding 5%. The starting point in creating value will always be growing the business. And over the last 10 years, we've averaged 8% growth in adjusted earnings per share. As you can see on this slide, we have multiple drivers of margin accretive growth, each with significant upside opportunity over the longer term. We will also continue to enhance our ability to grow in these areas through stepping up CapEx over a multiyear period, and executing on strategic M&A.

轉向幻燈片 11。當我們展望本財年下半年之後，這些已知因素將成為重要的組成部分，透過強勁的獲利成長和引人注目的不斷增長的結合，支持我們恢復股東價值創造模式。股息，目前收益率為5%。創造價值的起點永遠是業務的成長。在過去 10 年裡，我們的調整後每股盈餘平均成長 8%。正如您在這張投影片中所看到的，我們有多種利潤成長驅動因素，從長遠來看，每種驅動因素​​都具有巨大的上行機會。我們也將透過多年加強資本支出以及執行策略併購，持續增強我們在這些領域的發展能力。

As volumes normalize and improve, these generally faster growing and higher value growth areas will represent a larger proportion of sales becoming increasingly stronger contributors to earnings. And when we return to a more normalized volume growth environment, this combination of improved mix and the proactive steps we've taken to optimize our cost base positions Amcor well to again deliver strong earnings growth in line with our long track record.

隨著銷售正常化和改善，這些通常成長更快、價值成長更高的領域將佔銷售的更大比例，對獲利的貢獻越來越大。當我們回到更正常化的銷售成長環境時，改進的組合和我們為優化成本基礎而採取的積極措施相結合，Amcor 能夠很好地再次實現與我們長期業績記錄相符的強勁盈利增長。

To close on Slide 12, we're executing well to deliver against the earning and cash flow expectations we set coming into fiscal '24. Our teams are being proactive as market dynamics evolved and focusing on the controllables to take additional cost out where appropriate. We have line of sight to mid-single-digit earnings growth in Q4 and our commitment to our longer-term growth and value creation strategy positions us well to deliver on our shareholder value creation model when the volume environment normalizes.

在投影片 12 中，我們執行得很好，能夠實現我們在 24 財年設定的獲利和現金流預期。隨著市場動態的發展，我們的團隊積極主動，並專注於可控因素，以在適當的情況下降低額外成本。我們預計第四季度的獲利將實現中個位數成長，並且我們對長期成長和價值創造策略的承諾使我們能夠在銷售環境正常化時實現股東價值創造模式。

Operator, with those opening remarks, we're now ready to turn the line over to questions.

接線員，在開場白之後，我們現在準備好將線路轉入提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, first off on the volume declines across the portfolio, which looks like it's about 6 quarters of negative year-over-year volumes at this point. Obviously, you're not the only ones, but there's been quite a bit of chatter and your customer said all the way down to retailers about increased promotional spending. I'm just curious as to whether you're starting to see direct science of that at the point. And if so, which categories, food, beverage, consumer staples, et cetera?

我想，首先是整個投資組合的交易量下降，目前看起來有大約 6 個季度的年比交易量為負。顯然，您不是唯一的人，但已經有很多討論，您的客戶一直向零售商表示要增加促銷支出。我只是好奇你現在是否開始看到這方面的直接科學基礎。如果是的話，是哪些類別，食品、飲料、消費品等等？

Yes. Look, Ghansham, thanks for the question. Maybe I'll just mention the volume declines at a high level first and then come back to your question about signs of promotions or more aggressive commercial activity on the behalf of the customers.

是的。聽著，甘沙姆，謝謝你的提問。也許我會先提到高水準的銷售下降，然後回到你關於促銷跡像或代表客戶進行更積極的商業活動的問題。

Firstly, I think where there's overlap, we're not really seeing any differences compared to others. So that would be the first thing I would say. I think our 10% total decline in the quarter is about 2% worse than we expected going into the quarter. So we weren't actually expecting a much different outcome. Things did track according to those original expectations in October and November, where we were kind of declining high single digits. December, we saw a really accelerated destocking, which accounted for the incremental softness in which we more than offset to deliver the profit. So that's kind of the starting point.

首先，我認為在重疊的地方，我們與其他人相比並沒有真正看到任何差異。這就是我要說的第一件事。我認為本季 10% 的總跌幅比我們對本季的預期下降了 2% 左右。所以我們其實並沒有期待有太大不同的結果。十月和十一月的情況確實符合最初的預期，當時我們的股價出現了高個位數的下降。 12 月，我們看到了真正加速的去庫存，這導致了增量疲軟，而我們抵消了利潤帶來的損失。這就是起點。

Now January, as we've alluded to, was much better. We've seen improvement in most of our businesses versus H1. And it really underpins our view that Q2 was the low point, and it really underpins our Q3 and Q4 expectations. And maybe just to continue and round it out a bit in terms of unpacking the decline roughly by driver, roughly half of our 10% decline, sort of mid-single digits was related to market impacts. This is a combination of consumer demand, customer and segment mix. And roughly half or another mid-single-digit contribution was from destocking. And that's pretty much the same in both the Flexibles and Rigid Packaging segments.

現在，正如我們所提到的，一月好多了。與上半年相比，我們的大部分業務都有所改善。這確實支持了我們認為第二季是低點的觀點，也確實支持了我們對第三季和第四季的預期。也許只是為了繼續按驅動因素大致分析下降情況，並對其進行圓整，大約 10% 下降的一半（大約是個位數的中個位數）與市場影響有關。這是消費者需求、客戶和細分市場組合的結合。大約一半或另一個中個位數的貢獻來自於去庫存。這在軟包裝和硬包裝領域幾乎是一樣的。

By geography, emerging markets broadly flat. Asia up modestly, Latin America down modestly. But the developed markets is where we've been especially soft with Europe a little bit weaker versus North America.

從地理來看，新興市場基本持平。亞洲小幅上漲，拉丁美洲小幅下跌。但已開發市場是我們特別疲軟的地方，歐洲比北美稍弱一些。

And another way to think about it, just to sort of close off here is of the 10% decline in the quarter, more than 50% of that decline comes from our global health care business and our North American beverage business, both of which have experienced the most significant destocking. So we've had a concentration of impact from those 2 parts of the business. On the other hand, there are categories growing in some regions, confectionery in North America and Europe, condiments and cheese and coffee in North America and Latin America, beverage in Latin America. So there are places where the business is growing.

另一種思考方式是，本季下降了 10%，其中 50% 以上的下降來自我們的全球醫療保健業務和北美飲料業務，這兩個業務都有經歷了最大幅度的去庫存。因此，我們的影響力集中在這兩個業務部分。另一方面，一些地區的品類不斷增長，北美和歐洲是糖果，北美和拉丁美洲是調味品、起司和咖啡，拉丁美洲是飲料。所以有些地方的業務正在成長。

Now to your point, specifically about signs of promotional activity or changing pricing strategies, there is a lot of talk about that. As you rightly pointed out, we hear that from a lot of customers, both publicly and privately. And we're seeing a little bit of that start to take place in the marketplace. But to be honest, we haven't seen that as any kind of a tailwind yet for our volume performance. And our outlook doesn't infer, it doesn't imply or it doesn't assume that we're going to see any benefit from the market in the second half either. And so we'll sort of wait and see on whether or not the pendulum swings a bit between price and volume.

現在就您的觀點而言，特別是關於促銷活動的跡像或改變定價策略的問題，有很多討論。正如您正確指出的那樣，我們從許多客戶那裡聽到了這一點，無論是公開的還是私下的。我們看到這種情況開始在市場上發生。但說實話，我們還沒有認為這對我們的銷售表現有任何推動作用。我們的前景並不推斷、不暗示或假設我們也不會從下半年的市場中看到任何好處。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看鐘擺是否會在價格和成交量之間擺動。

Okay. Terrific. And just for my follow-up on that, on the health care destocking, is that just a function of having been destocked? Are you seeing it now versus a little bit later than the other categories? Or is there something unique to the time line associated with the health care destocking?

好的。了不起。對於我的後續行動，關於醫療保健去庫存，這只是去庫存的一個功能嗎？現在您看到它還是比其他類別晚一點？或是與醫療保健去庫存相關的時間線有什麼獨特之處嗎？

Yes. Look, I think it is a bit unique. It's really -- the markets have been soft, but the health care weakness is really a story of destocking, and it's been significant in both medical device packaging and pharmaceutical packaging. And it's been pervasive and consistent around the world, this destocking in health care. It's really a multiyear story. It's been a multiyear journey here for health care, which is ironic because it's been one of the most consistent businesses we've had for a long period of time, and we would expect the returns to that level of consistency.

是的。看看吧，我覺得有點獨特。確實，市場一直疲軟，但醫療保健的疲軟實際上是一個去庫存的故事，這對醫療器材包裝和藥品包裝都很重要。醫療保健領域的庫存去化在世界各地普遍存在且持續存在。這確實是一個多年的故事。對於醫療保健來說，這是一個多年的旅程，這很諷刺，因為它是我們長期以來最穩定的業務之一，我們期望回報達到這種一致性水平。

But over the last several years, going back to -- even COVID, where we had really constrained demand, then very strong demand on reopening, but severe supply constraints and raw material shortages on things ranging from specialty foils and resins and papers. So coming out of what would have been our fiscal '22, which led really to customers building stocks to ensure supply during our fiscal '23. And we had extraordinary volume in fiscal '23 as a result of customers really buttressing their supply chains and derisking their supply chains by building up stock.

但在過去的幾年裡，甚至在新冠疫情期間，我們的需求確實受到限制，然後對重新開放的需求非常強勁，但從特種箔、樹脂和紙張等產品的供應卻嚴重限制和原材料短缺。因此，在我們的 22 財年結束後，這確實導致客戶建立庫存，以確保我們 23 財年的供應。由於客戶真正支持他們的供應鏈並透過增加庫存來降低供應鏈風險，我們在 23 財年取得了非凡的銷售量。

Now we have customers sitting on substantial inventories have a range of products from medical gloves to device packaging and pharmaceutical packaging, et cetera. And we started to see destocking, which actually really started in Q1. We flagged it last quarter, but accelerated significantly in Q2. And we would expect that it's likely to continue certainly through Q3 and possibly into Q4. So it is a bit later stage. I think in some other categories, we've seen signs that there might be that destocking has abated, and we're closer to the end of the beginning. I think in health care, it's been a later-stage story.

現在，我們的客戶擁有大量庫存，並擁有從醫用手套到設備包裝和藥品包裝等一系列產品。我們開始看到去庫存，這實際上是從第一季開始的。我們在上個季度注意到了這一趨勢，但在第二季度顯著加速。我們預計這種情況很可能會持續到第三季度，甚至可能持續到第四季。所以現在是後期階段。我認為在其他一些類別中，我們已經看到了去庫存可能有所減弱的跡象，而且我們更接近開始的結束。我認為在醫療保健領域，這是一個後期的故事。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Longo from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安東尼·隆戈（Anthony Longo）。

Just a quick one on the cost savings. So in the first half, the volume declines that you did see throughout the first half and particularly that last quarter, but I would love to take your comments on January and thereafter. But I just want to get a sense as to what the outlook looks like for cost savings going forward and how you're still going to manage that declining volume environment with margin growth. And what you have tabled thus far, but is there anything over and above that, that you can achieve?

簡單介紹一下成本節約。因此，在上半年，您在整個上半年，尤其是上個季度確實看到了銷量下降，但我很樂意聽取您對一月份及之後的評論。但我只是想了解未來成本節約的前景如何，以及如何透過利潤成長來應對銷量下降的環境。到目前為止，您已經提出了哪些目標，但除此之外，還有什麼是您可以實現的嗎？

Yes, sure. I'll take that one, Anthony. So look, on the cost out, there's two things that we're really doing here. So the first is in response to the soften underlying volume demand. So on that front, we've clearly taken proactive and aggressive approaches to the cost flexing and really focusing down on productivity gains and discretionary spend. So for the first half, we took out more than $200 million in cost in relation to that, and it accelerated through the half. In the first quarter, it was about $70 million, in the second quarter, kind of $130 million. And we're achieving that by taking out really flexing the cost base in relation to the volume and demand environment.

是的，當然。我要那個，安東尼。所以看，在成本方面，我們在這裡真正做了兩件事。因此，首先是為了因應基礎銷售需求疲軟的情況。因此，在這方面，我們顯然採取了積極主動的方法來調整成本，並真正關註生產力的提高和可自由支配的支出。因此，上半年我們支出了超過 2 億美元的相關成本，並且上半年成本加速成長。第一季約 7,000 萬美元，第二季約 1.3 億美元。我們透過根據數量和需求環境真正調整成本基礎來實現這一目標。

So we're able to take out entire shifts. We're able to take out labor, reduce over time. We're driving the procurement benefits, particularly in this low demand environment and really tightening up on the discretionary spend. So that will continue as we continue to flex through the volumes. But obviously, as volumes improve, some of that cost, and it's difficult to say, but some of that cost will go back in as we build the shift patterns up. But we wouldn't expect that to be linear. I think you'll see us have better leverage there as we work through the second half because of the way we've learned to operate with some of that lower cost and improve the efficiencies there. So that's really on the operating cost side.

所以我們能夠進行整個輪班。隨著時間的推移，我們能夠減少勞動力。我們正在推動採購效益，特別是在這種低需求環境下，並真正收緊可自由支配支出。因此，隨著我們繼續靈活地處理這些卷，這種情況將繼續下去。但顯然，隨著產量的增加，其中一些成本很難說，但隨著我們建立輪班模式，其中一些成本將會回歸。但我們不希望這是線性的。我認為，在下半年的工作中，您會看到我們在這方面擁有更好的影響力，因為我們已經學會了以較低的成本進行營運並提高效率的方式。所以這實際上是在營運成本方面。

And then secondly, we are taking cost out structurally. So in parallel, we're advancing the structural cost reduction initiatives that we've talked about on the back of the divested Russia earnings. That's mainly plant closures, and it's around up to 10 across the globe and in both segments. To date, we've announced 7 closures and 2 restructures. And recently, actually, 2 to 3 of those plants have closed. So we did start to see a little bit of benefit from that program as we exited the first half. But we're right on track to deliver the $35 million benefit in the second half from that program and then a further $15 million in FY '25. So really, that's the approach we've taken to the cost-out agenda and part of it is structural and part of it's ongoing.

其次，我們正在結構性地削減成本。因此，與此同時，我們正在推進我們在剝離俄羅斯收入後討論過的結構性成本削減措施。這主要是工廠關閉，全球範圍內和這兩個領域的工廠關閉數量約為 10 家。迄今為止，我們已宣布 7 項關閉和 2 項重組。事實上，最近其中 2 到 3 個工廠已經關閉。因此，當我們退出上半場時，我們確實開始看到該計劃的一些好處。但我們預計在下半年從該計劃中獲得 3500 萬美元的收益，然後在 25 財年再獲得 1500 萬美元的收益。事實上，這就是我們對成本削減議程採取的方法，其中一部分是結構性的，一部分是持續性的。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

This is actually (inaudible) sitting in for George. He had a conflict this evening. So just going off that, are you able to comment at all how much of that temporary cost saving might ultimately end up being permanent and structural costs that are taken out of the business?

這其實是（聽不清楚）喬治的坐席。今天晚上他發生了衝突。那麼，就此而言，您能否評論一下，臨時成本節省中有多少最終可能會成為業務中的永久性成本和結構性成本？

Look, it's difficult to say, as I just mentioned. What I can tell you is that things like procurement there, there will be permanent savings. The operating cost out that we've taken out of the fixed base will be permanent. And the structural program is obviously permanent cost savings that come out of the business.

聽著，這很難說，正如我剛才提到的。我可以告訴你的是，像採購這樣的事情在那裡，會有永久的節省。我們從固定基地中扣除的營運成本將是永久性的。結構性計劃顯然是業務帶來的永久性成本節約。

On the flexing of the cost base, again, it's really dependent on the volume. We think we're much more efficient today. We've been able to proactively act to take labor out of the business overall versus prior year. We've taken nearly 2,000 heads out of the business and about 1,000 since June. So in total, that's about 5% of the workforce. As the volumes come back online, as I mentioned, we will have to increase some of that, but it's not going to be linear. And we will manage that really tightly. And we feel we've got good leverage out of that today, and we are more efficient. And so you'll see us continue to get leverage as we move forward in that. And really, that's going to contribute to the long-term margin benefits that we've typically gained of 20 to 30 basis points a year in our business. So you should see that continue to contribute to that on the longer term.

同樣，在成本基礎的變化上，它實際上取決於數量。我們認為今天的效率提高了很多。與去年相比，我們已經能夠積極採取行動，從整體業務中減少勞動力。我們已經裁掉了近 2,000 名員工，自 6 月以來又裁掉了約 1,000 名員工。總的來說，這大約佔勞動力的 5%。正如我所提到的，隨著卷重新上線，我們將不得不增加其中的一些，但這不會是線性的。我們將非常嚴格地管理這一點。我們覺得今天我們已經從中獲得了很好的槓桿作用，而且我們的效率也更高了。因此，當我們在這方面取得進展時，您會看到我們繼續獲得影響力。事實上，這將有助於我們的業務獲得長期利潤效益，通常每年可以獲得 20 到 30 個基點。因此，您應該看到，從長遠來看，這將繼續為此做出貢獻。

Okay. Got it. And I appreciate all the color on that and on the volumes. But I guess you said volumes kind of came in lower than you were anticipating. So what ultimately gives you comfort in the guidance for the year? Is it really that cost-out component and some of the other factors you talked to?

好的。知道了。我很欣賞那本書和書中的所有顏色。但我猜你說銷量比你預期的低。那麼，是什麼最終讓您對今年的指引感到放心呢？這真的是成本支出部分以及您談到的其他一些因素嗎？

Yes. Look, it's a couple of things. Firstly, on volumes, we're not anticipating any rebound in the consumer or any big improvements in the market. But we do expect that destocking will abate as we work our way through the half. I mean, certainly, a portion of the destocking that we saw in December was certainly year-end optimization, that's not going to repeat, right? We do believe we're going to see continued destocking in health care and North American beverage. But for the other categories, we're starting to see some evidence that the destocking is abating. So that's one thing. January also was much better. So we had much better January relative to the first half from a volume perspective. And so we feel like -- we feel pretty confident in underwriting the growth -- the volume assumptions for the rest of the year.

是的。瞧，有幾件事。首先，就銷售量而言，我們預期消費者不會有任何反彈，市場也不會有任何重大改善。但我們確實預計，隨著下半年的進展，去庫存將會減弱。我的意思是，當然，我們在 12 月看到的去庫存的一部分肯定是年終優化，這種情況不會重複，對嗎？我們確實相信，我們將看到醫療保健和北美飲料的庫存持續減少。但對於其他類別，我們開始看到一些證據顯示去庫存正在減弱。所以這是一回事。一月也好多了。因此，從成交量的角度來看，一月的情況比上半年好得多。因此，我們對今年剩餘時間的成長量假設非常有信心。

And then in terms of the profit, as Michael alluded to, we're going to continue to -- we've got a number of known benefits, which I rattled through in the opening remarks, but it starts with better operating leverage because we've gotten a lot of costs out of the business and as volumes come back, we're not going to add that cost back one for one, plus the buildup and the momentum on the structural cost side. Which, again, will build through the second half with the benefits from plant closures and the like. So several things that give us confidence in the improving trajectory of earnings through the second half, but none of them have to do with the real dramatic improvement at the consumer level.

然後就利潤而言，正如邁克爾所提到的，我們將繼續——我們有許多已知的好處，我在開場白中詳細介紹了這些好處，但它始於更好的營運槓桿，因為我們已經從業務中獲得了大量成本，隨著銷售的回升，我們不會一一增加成本，再加上結構成本的累積和動能。得益於工廠關閉等因素，這一點將在下半年繼續增強。有幾件事讓我們對下半年收入的改善軌跡充滿信心，但它們都與消費者層面的真正顯著改善無關。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Seow from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Sam Seow。

But you talked about some of your volumes coming in modestly below expectations. I'm just thinking about your balance sheet, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but just trying to get a feel of what kind of fourth quarter volumes would leave you outside of your range at the full year, assuming all other things are equal.

但您談到您的一些銷量略低於預期。我只是在考慮你的資產負債表，我並不是說這會發生，只是想了解一下，假設所有其他因素，第四季度的銷量會讓你超出全年的範圍是平等的。

Sam, are you still there?

山姆，你還在嗎？

Yes. Can you hear me?

是的。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. You broke up there for a second. You broke up right at an important part of your question, which is about fourth quarter volumes.

是的。你們在那裡分手了一秒鐘。您在問題的重要部分就分手了，也就是關於第四季度銷售的問題。

Yes. Just try to get a feel of what kind of fourth quarter volumes there would leave you outside in your range at the full year, assuming all other things are equal.

是的。假設其他條件都相同，試著感受一下第四季的銷售量會讓你全年超出你的範圍。

You mean the guidance range of $0.67 to $0.71, is that right, Sam?

你的意思是指導範圍是 0.67 美元到 0.71 美元，對嗎，Sam？

No, no, that 3x leverage.

不，不，3倍槓桿。

Okay. So look, we're confident in the cash flow trajectory of the business in the second half. So we're going to be delevering from here will be at approximately 3x at the end of June. We're pretty comfortable that, that's the path we're on here. In terms of volumes, the expectation for volumes that underwrites the EBIT growth in the second half for the EBITDA delivery in the second half is for mid-single-digit decline in the third quarter and a low single-digit decline in the fourth quarter. There's a bit of -- there's a range around that. And the impact on EBITDA and then therefore on leverage is pretty broad. So we don't anticipate volumes being a major driver of us not getting to approximately 3 turns at the end of June.

好的。所以看，我們對下半年業務的現金流軌跡充滿信心。因此，到 6 月底，我們的去槓桿化程度將達到約 3 倍。我們對此感到非常滿意，這就是我們現在走的路。就銷售而言，預計下半年 EBITDA 交付量將支撐下半年 EBIT 成長，第三季將出現中個位數下降，第四季將出現低個位數下降。周圍有一個範圍。對 EBITDA 以及槓桿率的影響相當廣泛。因此，我們預計銷量不會成為我們在 6 月底未達到約 3 週的主要驅動因素。

Okay. And I guess just following on -- I mean, looking forward, generally, you have lower cash flow in the first half due to seasonality. I think if you do finish at that 3 turns like your guidance, would you expect to be outside of your range again in first half '25? Is that the new norm now going forward?

好的。我想接下來——我的意思是，展望未來，一般來說，由於季節性因素，上半年的現金流量較低。我想如果你確實像你的指導那樣完成了這 3 個回合，你會期望在 25 年上半場再次超出你的範圍嗎？這是現在的新常態嗎？

Look, I think just to answer your question on that front. If you take where we are right now at this particular point in time, it's a pretty unique point in time because there's two factors that are really impacting the leverage right now. We're at 3.4x, which is right where we expected to be at this time of the year in this situation. And it's really driven by the divestment of the Russia business. So we're now fully lapping 12 months earnings out of the business from that. So from here, we don't lap that anymore. We head more into more normal earnings trajectory and growth. And that's about 0.2 turns of the leverage.

聽著，我想只是回答你在這方面的問題。如果你看看我們現在在這個特定時間點的情況，你會發現這是一個非常獨特的時間點，因為現在有兩個因素真正影響槓桿率。我們的成長率為 3.4 倍，這正是我們在每年這個時候在這種情況下的預期水準。這實際上是由俄羅斯業務的撤資所推動的。因此，我們現在已完全從該業務中獲得 12 個月的收益。所以從這裡開始，我們就不再這樣做了。我們將更加走向更正常的獲利軌跡和成長。這大約是槓桿的 0.2 圈。

And then the second point is really around elevated working capital levels. So we have been carrying elevated working capital levels over the last kind of 12 to 18 months. We've started to work our way through that. And the teams have done a good job in the last 12 months of inventory where we've taken inventory out of the system about $500 million. And that certainly contributed to the cash flow improvement in the first half of this year where we're $100 million ahead of prior year already. But we are still being impacted. We're not getting the full benefit of that inventory reduction because our payables are much lower.

第二點其實是圍繞著營運資本水準的提高。因此，在過去 12 至 18 個月裡，我們的營運資本水準一直在提高。我們已經開始努力解決這個問題。團隊在過去 12 個月的庫存管理工作中表現出色，我們已從系統中清除了約 5 億美元的庫存。這無疑促進了今年上半年現金流量的改善，我們已經比去年同期多了 1 億美元。但我們仍然受到影響。我們沒有從庫存減少中獲得全部好處，因為我們的應付帳款要低得多。

So in this environment, where we've seen demand softness and destocking, clearly our purchases are well down and in turn, our payables are down. So we -- probably, we've still got another sort of $200 million to work through from a cash flow improvement on the back of working capital. And we're really targeting a working capital to sales in the range of in between that 8% to 9%, working capital to sales. And right now, we're at 9.8% on a trailing 12-month basis.

因此，在這種環境下，我們看到需求疲軟和去庫存，顯然我們的採購量大幅下降，相應地，我們的應付帳款也下降了。因此，我們可能還需要透過營運資金改善現金流來獲得另外 2 億美元的資金。我們的目標是營運資金佔銷售額的比例在 8% 到 9% 之間。目前，過去 12 個月的成長率為 9.8%。

So when you put those two items together, leverage at this time of the year would normally be in the more of the 3x range. And typically, in the second half, the seasonality would take kind of a quarter turn of the leverage. So will get us back into that 2.5 to 3x range. So as we look forward, that's where we would expect to be in a more normal base. But as I said, we're in a little bit of a unique period of time. And from here, we do expect improvement.

因此，當您將這兩項放在一起時，一年中這個時候的槓桿通常會在 3 倍範圍內。通常，在下半年，季節性因素會使槓桿發生四分之一週的變化。因此，我們將回到 2.5 至 3 倍的範圍。因此，當我們展望未來時，這就是我們期望處於更正常基礎的地方。但正如我所說，我們正處於一個獨特的時期。從這裡開始，我們確實期望有所改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

So I guess the first question just going on the volume side and just thinking about some of the end markets. And Ron, you gave some good color in the prepared remarks. One of the areas where Amcor has been investing more aggressively has been in the protein space. Can you talk about kind of incremental business wins that you're actually achieving there relative to maybe some end markets that are still pretty challenged on the red meat side, certainly in North America? And how much you can kind of grow in spite of that and take market share in that opportunity?

所以我想第一個問題只是在數量方面，只是考慮一些終端市場。羅恩，你在準備好的演講中給了一些很好的補充。 Amcor 一直在更積極投資的領域之一是蛋白質領域。您能否談談您實際上在這些市場上取得的增量業務勝利，相對於某些紅肉方面仍然面臨很大挑戰的終端市場（尤其是在北美）？儘管如此，你能成長多少，並在這個機會中佔據市場份額？

Well, yes, it's a good question. And you're right, the market has been challenged. And so if we think about meat across the Flexibles businesses, it's been a mixed story. We've had meat declining in North America through the half. There's soft market, there's destocking in the meat space as well. But we've seen that stabilize more recently. So that would be one of those categories where we're not calling an end to the destocking cycle, but we certainly see signs that it's stabilizing a bit.

嗯，是的，這是一個好問題。你是對的，市場已經受到挑戰。因此，如果我們考慮整個軟包裝業務的肉類，我們會發現這是一個好壞參半的故事。上半年，北美的肉類產量有所下降。市場疲軟，肉品領域的庫存也減少。但我們最近看到這種情況趨於穩定。因此，這將是我們不認​​為去庫存週期結束的類別之一，但我們確實看到了它正在趨於穩定的跡象。

Similarly, in Europe, we've seen a bit of a stabilization in meat volumes in the last couple of months. And in Latin America, we started to see some growth as well. So I think meat is, as a general category globally, meat is one that feels like is coming out the other end of the packaging cycle, at least for us or at least there's some green shoots that give us some reasons for optimism would be the first point. Certainly, as we exited January as well, that would be the case.

同樣，在歐洲，過去幾個月肉類產量有所穩定。在拉丁美洲，我們也開始看到一些成長。所以我認為，作為全球範圍內的一個普遍類別，肉類感覺就像是從包裝週期的另一端出來的，至少對我們來說，或者至少有一些萌芽，給了我們一些樂觀的理由。第一點。當然，隨著我們一月份的退出，情況也會如此。

The second part of your question is a bigger picture question, and I think it's going to be a little bit longer dated, which is around our aspirations to win share in this space. You're aware that we made an equipment -- a purchase of a machinery company less than 12 months ago, which should be a part of that total system solution that we're going to market with. And we're optimistic that we've got the right consumables, the right film structures and the right technical service staff to support the equipment offering. And we think over time, that's going to be a winning combination and we'll take share not just in North America but around the world. There's not any evidence I can point to yet of that, Adam, because the near-term dynamics are well and truly overcompensating for any modest share pickup that we might be enjoying.

你問題的第二部分是一個更大的問題，我認為它的日期會更長一些，這是圍繞我們在這個領域贏得份額的願望的。您知道，我們製造了一種設備——不到 12 個月前購買了一家機械公司，這應該是我們將要推向市場的整體系統解決方案的一部分。我們樂觀地認為，我們擁有合適的耗材、合適的薄膜結構和合適的技術服務人員來支援設備供應。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這將是一個成功的組合，我們不僅會在北美，而且會在全世界佔據份額。亞當，我還沒有任何證據可以證明這一點，因為近期的動態確實對我們可能享受的任何適度的股票上漲進行了過度補償。

Okay. I appreciate that color. And if I can ask just a quick follow-up. You do have a business and presence in Argentina, both for Flexibles and Rigid on the beverage side. I think you strip out all the inflation accounting for the de-val, but you talked about the volume environment in Argentina and how you're thinking about that over the next couple of quarters given what I would imagine it's a pretty challenged consumer environment.

好的。我很欣賞那種顏色。如果我可以要求快速跟進。您在阿根廷確實擁有軟性飲料和硬飲料方面的業務和業務。我認為您排除了所有通貨膨脹因素，但您談到了阿根廷的數量環境，以及考慮到我認為這是一個充滿挑戰的消費環境，您在接下來的幾個季度中將如何考慮這一點。

Yes. Look, Michael can talk about maybe the accounting that you referenced. But from just a business perspective, first thing I would say is we've been in Argentina for the mid-'90s, so over 30 years. It's a business that's about 2% of sales and about 2% of EBIT. And we have 5 plants there actually across the 2 segments as you alluded to. And having been there for 30-odd years, as we've been there through multiple economic cycles and crises, I guess. And the business is relatively local. And we have maintained total control over the business. So it's still a business that's functioning more or less normally.

是的。聽著，麥可也許可以談談你提到的會計。但光從商業角度來看，我首先要說的是，我們在 20 世紀 90 年代中期就已經在阿根廷，所以已經有 30 多年了。該業務約佔銷售額的 2%，約佔息稅前利潤的 2%。正如您所提到的，我們實際上在 2 個細分市場中擁有 5 家工廠。我想，我們已經在那裡度過了 30 多年，因為我們經歷了多個經濟週期和危機。而且業務也比較本地化。我們保持了對業務的完全控制。所以它仍然是一個或多或少正常運作的企業。

But in terms of how we manage it, we continue to drive localization. It's essentially a local business. Already, there's no exports, but to the extent there's anything imported by way of raw materials, we're continuing to drive more localization of the key inputs. Most importantly, probably, we continue to price ahead of inflation. It's always been a hallmark of that business in that country and continues to be. And then we continue to focus on cost because our expectations are that demand will continue to slow as consumers adjust to the new macroeconomic realities in that country. So that's a little bit about the business and how we manage it.

但就我們的管理方式而言，我們繼續推動在地化。它本質上是一家本地企業。目前已經沒有出口，但只要有任何原料進口，我們將繼續推動關鍵投入的本地化。最重要的是，我們可能會繼續在通膨之前定價。它一直是該國該行業的標誌，並且仍然如此。然後我們繼續關注成本，因為我們的預期是，隨著消費者適應該國新的宏觀經濟現實，需求將繼續放緩。這就是關於業務以及我們如何管理它的一些內容。

Michael, do you want to talk a bit about the accounting that Adam alluded to?

邁克爾，你想談談亞當提到的會計嗎？

Yes. Yes. Just on the accounting there, Adam, you referred to, obviously, Argentina has been designated a hyperinflation economy since 2018. So consistently, since that time, we've been -- if there's been a devaluation and we see that impacts the monetary assets on hand, and that's being treated in the SI. We -- this quarter, there was a change of government, clearly. And in December, we saw a 55% devaluation. And you see the chart of $34 million to the P&L in the quarter in the SI bucket, and that's really the outcome of that on our monetary assets only and that followed Q1 where there was a 20% devaluation. So really, that's the treatment of the accounting. It's been consistent all the way through since the 2018 approach.

是的。是的。就會計而言，亞當，你提到，很明顯，阿根廷自2018 年以來就被指定為惡性通貨膨脹經濟體。因此，從那時起，我們一直在- 如果出現貶值，並且我們看到這會影響貨幣資產現有的，並且正在 SI 中處理。顯然，這個季度，政府發生了更迭。 12 月份，我們看到了 55% 的貶值。您可以在 SI 桶中看到本季損益表 3,400 萬美元的圖表，這實際上只是我們貨幣資產的結果，而第一季貶值了 20%。事實上，這就是會計的處理方式。自 2018 年方法以來，它一直保持一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的理查德·約翰遜 (Richard Johnson)。

Thanks very much. Ron, I just wanted to ask a question about Rigid Packaging and how you're thinking about the business now strategically. I was just trying to remember whether I've seen volume declines in the December quarter and in the past, anything like that we saw in the December quarter, particularly in hot fill, and that's even if you adjust out destocking. So just interested to get your view on how you think the business is placed at the moment.

非常感謝。羅恩，我只是想問一個有關剛性包裝的問題以及您現在如何從戰略角度考慮該業務。我只是想記住我是否在 12 月季度和過去看到過銷量下降，與我們在 12 月季度看到的情況類似，尤其是在熱灌裝方面，即使您調整了去庫存的情況也是如此。因此，我只想了解您對目前業務的看法。

Well, yes, listen, Richard, you don't remember seeing volume declines at that level because you haven't seen them at that level. I mean it's just the reality of it. It's a business that's -- it's been a good business for a long period of time. It suffered really from a volume perspective, from the same drivers as the rest of the company, right? So -- although with higher impacts. So we've had market impacts that we would say, attributed to a high single-digit decline in volumes. That's inclusive of consumer demand down kind of low to mid-single digits in some segments that are important to us, maybe down some more, some customers lagging the market. And that all wraps up to kind of a high single-digit impact on volumes for both North American beverage at large and hot fill, specifically that we would attribute to market impacts.

嗯，是的，聽著，理查德，你不記得看到那個水平的成交量下降，因為你還沒有看到那個水平。我的意思是這只是現實。這是一項很長一段時間以來都是一項很好的業務。從數量的角度來看，它確實受到了影響，與公司其他部門相同的驅動因素，對嗎？所以——儘管影響更大。因此，我們可以說，我們對市場產生了影響，這歸因於銷售量的高個位數下降。其中包括在對我們很重要的某些細分市場中，消費者需求下降了低至中個位數，甚至可能下降更多，一些客戶落後於市場。這一切都對北美普通飲料和熱灌裝飲料的銷售產生了較高的個位數影響，特別是我們將其歸因於市場影響。

Then the bigger impact actually for us in the quarter was the destocking. And the destocking is really being driven by a couple of things here, which are working in opposite directions. First is that traditionally, in this business, you'd have some inventory prebuild in what is our fiscal second and fiscal third quarters in advance of the high season, the beverage season in North America. There's historically a bit of inventory buildup, that's not happening this year. So there's no prebuild this year.

本季對我們來說實際更大的影響是去庫存。去庫存實際上是由一些相反方向的因素推動的。首先，傳統上，在這個行業，你會在北美飲料旺季之前的第二財季和第三財季預先建立一些庫存。從歷史上看，庫存有所增加，但今年不會發生這種情況。所以今年沒有預建。

And at the same time, we have some customers, big customers with very, very aggressive inventory reduction targets. So rather than building, we're reducing. And there was a significant acceleration in that activity to reduce inventories in the month of December, which ultimately led to a high single-digit impact on North American beverage at large, but a high teens impact in hot fill.

同時，我們有一些客戶，大客戶，他們的庫存削減目標非常非常積極。因此，我們不是在建設，而是在減少。 12 月減少庫存的活動顯著加速，最終對整個北美飲料造成了個位數的高影響，但對熱灌裝的影響則達到了十幾位數。

And while we saw some modest improvement in January, we do believe that we're going to continue to see a destocking impact in the third quarter. So that's really what's going on there. That's unprecedented. We still believe in the business. The business is well positioned in terms of its market stature. It operates in a reasonably well-structured market. It has world-leading technology. Its footprint is reasonably optimized. We are taking a couple of small plants out as part of the restructuring program, but it's reasonably well optimized. It needs to just weather the storm. And that's on the beverage side.

雖然我們在一月份看到了一些適度的改善，但我們確實相信第三季將繼續看到去庫存的影響。這就是那裡發生的事情。這是前所未有的。我們仍然相信這項業務。該業務在市場地位方面處於有利地位。它在一個結構合理的市場中運作。它擁有世界領先的技術。其占地面積已合理優化。作為重組計劃的一部分，我們正在拆除一些小型工廠，但它已經得到了相當好的優化。它需要渡過難關。這是在飲料方面。

And then let's not forget that outside of beverage, we have a reasonably sized Specialty Container business which looks and feels almost like a Flexibles business because of its end market exposure and that business has room to grow. And Latin America also is -- continues to be a very good business, including in the first half and in the second quarter, where we saw volume growth and new business wins in Latin America, too. So it's a portfolio of businesses. At its core, it's a beverage business in North America that gets a lot of attention but we shouldn't forget about the other parts as well.

然後我們不要忘記，除了飲料之外，我們還有一個相當大的特種貨櫃業務，由於其終端市場的曝光度以及該業務的增長空間，它看起來和感覺起來幾乎就像一個軟包裝業務。拉丁美洲也仍然是一個非常好的業務，包括在上半年和第二季度，我們也看到了拉丁美洲的銷售成長和新業務的成長。所以它是一個業務組合。從本質上講，這是北美備受關注的飲料業務，但我們也不應該忘記其他部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell from Barrenjoey.

你的下一個問題來自 Barrenjoey 的 Brook Campbell。

Can you just confirm what the level of volume growth or decline was in January? And then as a follow-up to that, is there not a risk here that you sort of extrapolate January volumes and for the rest of the quarter when perhaps there was a benefit in Jan because [Costco] has effectively delayed orders in December and push it into January. Therefore, January might not be a good indicator for the rest of the quarter? That's the question.

您能否確認一月份的銷售成長或下降水準是多少？然後，作為後續行動，是否存在這樣的風險：您可以推斷1 月份的銷量以及本季度剩餘時間的銷量，而1 月份可能會帶來好處，因為[Costco] 實際上推遲了12 月份的訂單並推動了進入一月。因此，一月份可能不是本季剩餘時間的良好指標？這就是問題所在。

Yes. We won't give a number on January other than to say it was an improvement over December and an improvement, not everywhere, but in most parts of our business. We did have some parts of the business even that grew modestly. So that's probably as much as I would say in terms of trying to dimension January.

是的。我們不會給出 1 月份的具體數字，只是說這比 12 月份有所改善，而且不是在所有地方，而是在我們業務的大部分方面都有改善。我們確實有一些業務，儘管成長幅度不大。這可能就是我在嘗試界定一月時所說的內容。

I understand the nature of your question and particularly the second part as to whether or not we're being overly optimistic on the back of 1 month. It is 1 month, and we're well aware that it's 1 month. We are flagging that we will see continued destocking impacts in health care globally and in North American beverage. That no matter what happened in January, we know it will be the case certainly in Q3 and potentially into Q4. And we're also not banking on any improvement in the consumer.

我理解你問題的本質，特別是第二部分，即我們在 1 個月後是否過於樂觀。 1個月了，我們很清楚這是1個月了。我們指出，我們將看到全球醫療保健和北美飲料行業的持續去庫存影響。無論一月份發生什麼，我們都知道第三季肯定會出現這種情況，甚至可能進入第四季。我們也不指望消費者有任何改善。

So I think that we're being relatively conservative and not reading too much into 1 month, but it is a month, and it does suggest as we sort of expected that the low point for us from a volume point of view and earnings growth as well was the second quarter.

因此，我認為我們相對保守，沒有對 1 個月進行太多解讀，但這是一個月，它確實表明，正如我們所預期的那樣，從數量和盈利增長的角度來看，我們的低點為第二季很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Jakob Cakarnis from Jarden Australia.

您的下一個問題來自 Jarden Australia 的 Jakob Cakarnis。

I just want to build on Brooks' question there, though. Obviously, December was significantly weak. So January improvement might not necessarily move you guys back to increase. So I just want to square some of the commentary still where you're saying that you'll see a mid-single-digit volume decline in the third quarter and then low single digit in the fourth quarter. Can you just help us the commentary around the January improvement, is that relative to the negative or the decline that you saw through the month of December specifically?

不過，我只想以布魯克斯的問題為基礎。顯然，12 月明顯疲軟。所以一月的進步不一定會讓你們恢復成長。因此，我只想修正一些評論，即您所說的第三季銷售量將出現中個位數下降，然後第四季將出現低個位數下降。您能否幫助我們評論一下 1 月的改善，這是否與您在 12 月看到的負面或下降有關？

Yes. It's relative to the performance in the whole first half and in the second quarter and in December. So when we -- we're talking about improvements in January in most parts of the business, where that's relative to the first half. That's the first part.

是的。這是相對於整個上半年、第二季和12月份的表現而言的。因此，當我們談論一月份大部分業務的改進時，這是相對於上半年而言的。這是第一部分。

I think the other thing to keep in mind is as we work our way through the balance of the fiscal year, a couple of things will also underpin those growth assumptions that we've outlined. One is that we do expect outside of health care and North American beverage, we do expect the year-end destocking that we saw in December to not repeat. And some continued abatement or continued destocking runoff or reduction in much of the rest of the business. That's the first thing.

我認為要記住的另一件事是，當我們努力完成本財年的平衡時，有幾件事也將支持我們概述的成長假設。一是我們確實預計在醫療保健和北美飲料之外，我們確實預計 12 月看到的年底去庫存不會重演。有些企業繼續減少庫存，或繼續去庫存，或減少其他大部分業務。這是第一件事。

And the second thing is, particularly as we get to the fourth quarter, the prior period comp gets a little bit easier. Our volume challenges really started in Q4 of last fiscal year. And so as we get to Q4 this year, we've got the benefit of a comparative period, which wasn't so strong.

第二件事是，特別是當我們進入第四季時，前期比較變得容易一些。我們的銷量挑戰真正開始於上一財年的第四季。因此，當我們進入今年第四季時，我們得到了比較時期的好處，但當時的好處並不那麼強勁。

Just one more for Michael, if I can. Just on the net interest guidance, obviously, a little bit lower than where you were guiding to initially, how much of that's the movements in forward curves and expectations for rate or interest rate declines or cash rate declines in the U.S. through the balance of the year, please?

如果可以的話，再給麥可一份。僅就淨利息指導而言，顯然比您最初的指導要低一點，其中有多少是遠期曲線的變動以及美國通過平衡的利率或利率下降或現金利率下降的預期。請問是哪一年？

Yes, sure. So we -- you saw that we brought our guidance just slightly down from kind of a range of 320 -- for interest $320 million to $340 million down to kind of $315 million to $330 million. That's really all on the back of the forward curves and the interest rate hike would appear to have been reached its peak now, and potentially, you might see one rate reduction late in our fiscal year. But really, that's the slight improvement is really on the back of that forward curve. And after tax, it's a pretty minimal impact on the full year guidance.

是的，當然。因此，您看到我們將利息指引從 320 的範圍略微下調至 3.2 億至 3.4 億美元，降至 3.15 億至 3.3 億美元。這實際上是遠期曲線的背面，加息似乎已經達到峰值，並且有可能，您可能會在我們的財政年度後期看到一次降息。但實際上，輕微的改善確實是在前向曲線的後面。稅後，這對全年指導的影響非常小。

Your next question comes from the line of Cameron McDonald from E&P.

您的下一個問題來自 E&P 的 Cameron McDonald。

Question for Mike, just in terms of -- well, the tax rate and then the capital structure. So the tax rate sitting sort of around sort of under 19%. And where -- what jurisdictions are you getting a tax benefit from given the corporate tax rate in most of your jurisdictions is in excess of certainly of that number, but in excess of sort of 20%?

麥克的問題是——嗯，稅率，然後是資本結構。所以稅率大約在 19% 以下。鑑於大多數司法管轄區的公司稅率肯定超過該數字，但超過 20%，您從哪些司法管轄區獲得稅收優惠？

Yes. Look, I think we operate across a broad range of countries globally. And in addition to that, the mix of earnings can be different in every geography and location. And then the overall underlying performance of the business can change. So when you wrap that all up for our business, we're guiding to 18% to 20% tax rate. We've typically been around that 20% range for a long period of time. So it's really just the combination of the earnings, the country mix and the underlying performance of the business.

是的。看，我認為我們在全球許多國家/地區開展業務。除此之外，每個地理位置的收入組合可能會有所不同。然後，企業的整體基礎績效就會改變。因此，當您總結我們的業務時，我們指導稅率為 18% 至 20%。我們通常在很長一段時間內都在 20% 的範圍內。因此，這實際上只是收益、國家組合和業務基本績效的結合。

And the differences in deductibility of different expenses by jurisdiction, right? Which then, obviously, you have to factor in, in addition to the headline tax rates in those jurisdictions.

不同管轄區的費用扣除額也有差異，對嗎？顯然，除了這些司法管轄區的總體稅率之外，您還必須考慮這一點。

Okay. And then just in terms of the capital structure and your comments earlier about the balance sheet and the leverage. Part of the investment thesis has been EPS growth. A big chunk of that has been undertaken through share buybacks. What -- how -- what's the sort of leverage ratio that we should be expecting before we would start to see a discussion around the buyback being reimplemented? Is it -- do we have to get back down to sort of the mid-2s? I think the last time you had a buyback active was sort of 2.7x leverage.

好的。然後就資本結構以及您先前對資產負債表和槓桿的評論而言。投資主題的一部分是每股收益成長。其中很大一部分是透過股票回購完成的。在我們開始看到有關重新實施回購的討論之前，我們應該期待什麼樣的槓桿率？是嗎——我們必須回到 2 秒左右嗎？我認為您上次活躍回購的槓桿是 2.7 倍。

Well, listen, we've bought back -- remember, it's buybacks and M&A is the way we think about the discretionary cash flow for the business. And we bought back over the last -- we will have bought back over 3 fiscal years and acquired to the tune of about $1.2 billion. So we will have done over $1 billion in buybacks, and we will have invested somewhere close to $200 million in investments and acquisitions. So that's essentially 3 years of discretionary cash that's been invested in the business. It's a little bit lumpy. It's not exactly even over the 3-year period, but that's been what we've done.

好吧，聽著，我們已經回購了——記住，這是回購，併購是我們考慮企業可自由支配現金流的方式。我們在過去的 3 個財年中進行了回購，並收購了約 12 億美元。因此，我們將進行超過 10 億美元的回購，並在投資和收購方面投資近 2 億美元。因此，這基本上是投資於該業務的 3 年可自由支配現金。它有點凹凸不平。三年期間的情況並不完全一致，但這就是我們所做的。

I think from a leverage range perspective, more often than not, we're going to be between 2.5 and 3x. Obviously, we're comfortable being above that and particularly when there's good reasons for it as there is at the moment. And we'll be continuing to evaluate capital management or buyback opportunities in conjunction with M&A opportunities on a go-forward basis, and that includes now.

我認為從槓桿範圍的角度來看，我們通常會在 2.5 到 3 倍之間。顯然，我們對高於這一水平感到滿意，特別是當目前有充分的理由時。我們將繼續評估資本管理或回購機會以及未來的併購機會，包括現在。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland from Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Actually, just one question because a lot of material already was covered here. Quickly on just protein packaging, Ron. I know it was discussed earlier in response to a question, I think you discussed it, I think, last quarter. Can you just describe whether there are any nuances in your business, maybe around equipment, for instance, that would make you unable to compete with some of the -- with a large player in the industry or some of the -- some of your larger peers? Are you intentionally participating in different parts of the market to avoid going head on with some of the larger players. And just lastly, where do you think this -- where would you like this business to be on a revenue basis, let's say, in 5 years or 10 years?

實際上，這只是一個問題，因為這裡已經涵蓋了許多材料。羅恩，快速討論蛋白質包裝。我知道早些時候在回答一個問題時討論過這個問題，我想你在上個季度討論過這個問題。您能否描述一下您的業務中是否存在任何細微差別，例如，可能在設備方面，這會使您無法與某些行業的大型企業或某些大型企業競爭同行？您是否有意參與市場的不同部分，以避免與一些較大的參與者正面對抗？最後，您認為這個業務的收入水平如何，比如說，5 年或 10 年後？

Yes. Look, it's a great question. The biggest challenge we have at the moment is the lack of installed base. So there's a massive installed base that got a lot of legacy behind it in the industry as -- given the way the industry has evolved over several decades. And from an equipment perspective, we're -- well, firstly, I would say we're more open source. We bought Moda, obviously. So we're prioritizing Moda equipment, but we're more agnostic to the actual equipment installation. And we think we've got great films and the primary basis of competition here, we think, ultimately, will be on the film. And that's what we're aspiring to do is to grow the film business, enabled and facilitated with a full-service offering, which includes not only the machinery but the technical service that is so important in this industry to the customers to help them optimize their operations.

是的。聽著，這是一個很好的問題。目前我們面臨的最大挑戰是缺乏安裝基礎。因此，考慮到該行業幾十年來的發展方式，該行業擁有龐大的安裝基礎，並在背後留下了許多遺產。從設備的角度來看，我們——首先，我想說我們更加開源。顯然，我們買了 Moda。因此，我們優先考慮 Moda 設備，但我們對實際設備安裝更加不可知。我們認為我們已經有了很棒的電影，我們認為最終的競爭的主要基礎將是在電影上。這就是我們渴望做的，那就是發展薄膜業務，透過全方位服務提供支援和促進，其中不僅包括機械，還包括技術服務，這在這個行業中對客戶來說非常重要，可以幫助他們優化他們的行動。

So it's really a total system solution that we're going to go to market with now and we're starting to go to market with really for the first time. And as far as how big can the business get and what are our aspirations for it? I mean, look, I'm not going to dimension it here, it's a big, important business for us, already. It's a tough time to be asking for a lot out of the business as it weathers some of the destocking and some of the softness in the general beef cycle, in particular or meat cycle, I should say. But it's a business that we have aspirations to grow at sort of mid- to high single digits and good margins for the foreseeable future.

因此，這確實是我們現在要推向市場的整體系統解決方案，而我們確實是第一次開始推向市場。業務能發展到多大，我們的願望是什麼？我的意思是，聽著，我不會在這裡衡量它的規模，這對我們來說已經是一項重要的業務了。我應該說，現在是一個很難對業務提出很多要求的時期，因為它經歷了一些去庫存和一般牛肉週期（特別是肉類週期）的一些疲軟。但我們希望在可預見的未來以中高個位數成長和良好的利潤率來發展這項業務。

Your next question comes from the line of John Purtell from Macquarie.

您的下一個問題來自麥格理的 John Purtell。

Just a couple of questions, please. In terms of your second half EPS guide, previously, it was up for the second half, up mid-single digit in constant currency, I think you mentioned Q3 EPS down mid-single digit, with your expectation in Q4 up in single digits. So it looks like the Q3 guide is weaker. Is that reflecting a lower volume starting point?

請教幾個問題。就您的下半年每股收益指南而言，此前，下半年每股收益有所上升，按固定匯率計算上漲了中個位數，我認為您提到了第三季度每股收益下降了中個位數，而您對第四季度的預期上漲了個位數。所以看起來第三季指南較弱。這是否反映出成交量起點較低？

Look, overall, John, I guess we'd say we've actually held our guidance. So -- and we -- you're right, we've guided to volumes mid-single digit down in Q3 and EPS down mid-single digit. And in Q4 we're expecting trajectory to improve through the half on the volumes, volumes down low single digit. And just on the back of some of the things that Ron touched on earlier and also the earnings trajectory of our business typically in the seasonality in Q4 is our biggest quarter, that's why we're expecting mid-single-digit EPS growth in Q4.

約翰，總的來說，我想我們會說我們實際上已經堅持了我們的指導方針。所以——我們——你是對的，我們指導第三季的銷量下降中個位數，每股收益下降中個位數。在第四季度，我們預計銷量將改善一半，銷量將下降低個位數。正是在羅恩之前提到的一些事情的基礎上，以及我們業務的盈利軌跡通常在第四季度的季節性中是我們最大的季度，這就是為什麼我們預計第四季度的每股收益將實現中個位數的成長。

So really not a lot of change. I guess what we have seen is that the volume trajectory is perhaps a little softer than we previously anticipated. And that was really on the back of that destocking, particularly in health care and North American beverage, where we're expecting that to continue through Q3 and perhaps into Q4. We are offsetting that with continued cost out and we have confidence in the underlying performance of the business with the structural initiatives that we've put in place and touch on already getting $35 million in the second half, the ongoing cost agenda and discretionary spend management. So not a lot of change really to our guidance overall. I think we -- perhaps we did a little better in H1. But generally speaking we're holding the range and we feel pretty good about the drivers behind that to deliver that $0.67 to $0.71 range.

所以確實沒有太多改變。我想我們看到的是成交量軌跡可能比我們之前預期的要軟一些。這確實是在去庫存的背景下進行的，特別是在醫療保健和北美飲料領域，我們預計這種情況將持續到第三季度，甚至可能持續到第四季度。我們正在透過持續的成本支出來抵消這一影響，並且我們對業務的基本績效充滿信心，我們已經實施了結構性舉措，並涉及下半年已經獲得的3500 萬美元、持續的成本議程和可自由支配的支出管理。因此，我們的整體指導方針並沒有太大變化。我認為我們——也許我們在上半年做得更好。但總的來說，我們維持在這個區間，我們對實現 0.67 美元至 0.71 美元區間的背後驅動因素感到非常滿意。

And just the second one, just to be interested in what you're seeing from the consumer. Obviously, elasticity of demand has been an ongoing factor, and it looks like the FMCG companies are still pushing price.

只是第二個，只是對你從消費者身上看到的東西感興趣。顯然，需求彈性一直是持續的因素，看起來快速消費品公司仍在推高價格。

Yes. Look, I mean, the best proxy is probably the scanner data that we look at, and I'm sure you look at it as well. I mean, we still see a generally a soft consumer environment. And that's true across the staples that we're supplying packaging for. You still see in the U.S. general scan data, which, obviously, there's a lot of nuance that you need to unpack. But generally speaking, kind of low single-digit declines in the calendar fourth quarter that's just passed. Europe may be modestly better overall, but at a sub level, you still see lots of softness and lots of modest declines.

是的。看，我的意思是，最好的代理可能是我們查看的掃描器數據，我相信您也會查看它。我的意思是，我們仍然看到整體疲軟的消費環境。對於我們為其提供包裝的主要產品也是如此。您仍然可以在美國的一般掃描資料中看到，顯然，您需要了解很多細微差別。但總的來說，剛剛過去的第四季出現了較低的個位數下降。歐洲總體上可能會稍微好一些，但在次級層面上，你仍然會看到很多疲軟和很多小幅下滑。

You see some evidence of down-trading in some parts of the business. You see on the margin, maybe some modest shift, and I wouldn't make too much into this, but you see some modest shifts in some categories like pet food and maybe even in coffee where you might see different formats doing better. We certainly see it -- we believe we see it in the beverage business. In the case of carbonated soft drinks, where we know that the value pack has historically been the can, if you're going to buy 12 or 24 cans or units of a soft drink, you're likely to buy it in a can and that has continued.

您會看到某些業務領域有降價交易的跡象。你會看到，在邊緣，也許會有一些適度的轉變，我不會對此做太多討論，但你會看到寵物食品等某些類別的一些適度轉變，甚至在咖啡中，你可能會看到不同格式做得更好。我們當然看到了這一點——我們相信我們在飲料行業看到了這一點。就碳酸軟性飲料而言，我們知道超值裝歷來都是罐裝，如果您要購買 12 或 24 罐或單位的軟性飲料，您很可能會購買罐裝飲料，並且這種情況一直持續著。

So I think generally, John, the consumer environment is pretty soft. There are some reasons for potential optimism if the brand owners toggle the dial a little bit between price recovery and maximizing volume, but we are absolutely not baking that into our assumptions on volumes going forward. But that will take as nice to have if it happens.

所以我認為，約翰，總的來說，消費環境相當疲軟。如果品牌所有者在價格回升和銷售最大化之間稍微切換一下，就有一些潛在的樂觀理由，但我們絕對不會將其納入我們對未來銷售的假設中。但如果真的發生了，那就太好了。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Kang from CLSA.

您的下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Daniel Kang。

So you spoke about protein turning a quarter in January. Can you just elaborate on how you're seeing stock levels and the potential for an end in destocking in other product categories?

所以你談到蛋白質在一月已經過了一個季度了。您能否詳細說明您對庫存水準的看法以及其他產品類別結束去庫存的可能性？

Yes. Look, I think as it relates to the trend on destocking from -- sort of break it down in a couple of buckets. Firstly, we'd say the really pronounced end of year destocking that we saw in December, we don't expect will repeat with the exception -- or that we don't expect will continue with the exception of globally in health care and the North American beverage. We know that in those 2 segments for different reasons that we've mostly covered we're going to see continued destocking certainly through Q3 and likely into Q4. So we're not expecting a big bounce back there.

是的。聽著，我認為這與去庫存的趨勢有關——可以將其分為幾個部分。首先，我們想說的是，我們在12 月看到的真正明顯的年底去庫存，我們預計不會重演，但例外情況——或者我們預計，除了全球醫療保健和醫療保健領域外，我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。北美飲料。我們知道，在這兩個細分市場中，由於我們主要討論過的不同原因，我們肯定會看到第三季甚至可能進入第四季持續去庫存。因此，我們預計不會出現大幅反彈。

Other than those two segments, other places where there was really accelerated destocking in December, we're not expecting to see a repeat of. And so therefore, on a general basis, we would expect that we're going to start to come out the other end of this inventory cycle that we've been weathering for the last several quarters. We see some signs of that. Already, I mentioned I mentioned meat as one place that seems to have stabilized, premium coffee in Europe is another. So there are some reasons for optimism. But again, we're not getting ahead of ourselves here, and we recognize we have two important parts of the business in health care and beverage, which you're going to continue to go through some more destocking from here.

除了這兩個細分市場之外，其他地方在 12 月確實加速了去庫存，我們預計不會再發生這種情況。因此，總體而言，我們預計我們將開始走出過去幾個季度我們一直在經歷的庫存週期的另一端。我們看到了一些跡象。我已經提到過，肉類似乎已經穩定下來，而歐洲的優質咖啡則是另一個。因此，我們有一些樂觀的理由。但同樣，我們在這裡並沒有超前，我們認識到我們在醫療保健和飲料方面有兩個重要的業務部分，您將繼續從這裡進行更多的去庫存。

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Chau from MST Marquee.

您的下一個問題來自 MST Marquee 的 Keith Chau。

Just an extension of Daniel's question on destocking and part of my ignorance, but how can you actually tell what is destocking? What is underlying volume trend? Can you specifically quantify that with data that you're seeing internally? Or is it based on discussions you're having with customers a bit of an approximation internally? Can you just give me a sense of how you work out what is underlying consumer weakness? What is destocking? What is cyclical? What is structural?

只是丹尼爾關於去庫存問題的延伸，也是我無知的一部分，但你怎麼能真正分辨出什麼是去庫存呢？什麼是基礎成交量趨勢？您能用您在內部看到的數據具體量化這一點嗎？還是基於您與客戶進行的內部討論得出的近似值？您能否讓我了解一下您是如何找出潛在的消費者弱點的？什麼是去庫存？什麼是周期性？什麼是結構性的？

Yes. Look, it's part art and part science. So firstly, there's a lot of discussions with customers. And remember in some parts of the business were even co-located with customers. So there's a high degree of customer intimacy across the business. And the starting point is the discussions and the joint planning dialogue that we have with our customers around the world. So that's arguably the most important input.

是的。看，它一半是藝術，一半是科學。首先，與客戶進行了大量討論。請記住，在某些業務部門甚至與客戶位於同一地點。因此，整個企業都具有高度的客戶親密感。起點是我們與世界各地的客戶進行的討論和共同規劃對話。所以這可以說是最重要的輸入。

But then we also try to triangulate with data. And what do we look at? We look at things like in categories where there is scanner data, which is not the case across our portfolio, certainly not in health care. But in food and home and personal care and places where there's good retail scanner data, we take a close look at that. We also look at the scanner results for individual customers, individual companies and try to determine if there's any difference between the overall market performance and the performance of our specific customers.

但隨後我們也嘗試用數據進行三角測量。我們看什麼？我們會關注有掃描器資料的類別，但我們的產品組合中並非如此，尤其是在醫療保健領域。但在食品、家庭和個人護理以及擁有良好零售掃描器數據的地方，我們會仔細研究這一點。我們也會查看各個客戶、各家公司的掃描結果，並嘗試確定整體市場表現和特定客戶的表現之間是否存在差異。

And then we look at our volumes and try to triangulate between those 3 data points to see what's the difference. Is there -- if there's sell-through or not and whether or not we're seeing an inventory drawdown or buildup. So it's -- like it's an approximation, but it's a reasonably informed approximation, both with input from the customer directly as well as data and quantitative inputs.

然後我們查看我們的數據量並嘗試對這 3 個數據點進行三角測量，看看有什麼區別。是否有——是否有售完，以及我們是否看到庫存減少或增加。所以它就像是一個近似值，但它是一個合理的近似值，既有來自客戶的直接輸入，也有數據和定量輸入。

That's great color. And then just a quick follow-up on the point in January, and I appreciate it's only a month. But when you talked about an improvement, are you talking about a positive growth comp in January or less bad January versus the last 6 months?

那顏色真棒。然後對一月份的這一點進行快速跟進，我很高興只有一個月的時間。但是，當您談到改進時，您指的是 1 月份的正增長比較還是 1 月份與過去 6 個月相比不太糟糕的增長？

Yes. Look, we're talking about it relative to the first half. So it's a little bit of both. But generally speaking, we're talking about the comparison to the first half. And so we're not talking about -- we had some parts of the business that grew, but we're not talking about general growth across the board. What we're talking about is a general improvement relative to the first half and certainly the second quarter.

是的。聽著，我們談論的是相對於上半場的事情。所以兩者兼而有之。但總的來說，我們談論的是與上半場的比較。所以我們不是在談論——我們的某些業務有所增長，但我們不是在談論全面的整體成長。我們談論的是相對於上半年和第二季的整體改善。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Ron Delia for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給羅恩·迪莉婭（Ron Delia），讓其致閉幕詞。

Thanks, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. We're -- as you can hopefully pick up, pretty optimistic about our second half. We believe that the second quarter was the low point for us in terms of volumes and earnings growth, and the business will build momentum from here. So thank you for your interest in Amcor, and we'll speak to you next quarter.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天加入通話。正如您希望看到的那樣，我們對下半年非常樂觀。我們相信，第二季度是我們銷售和獲利成長的最低點，業務將從這裡開始建立動力。感謝您對 Amcor 的興趣，我們將在下個季度與您聯繫。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。