Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Christie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Amcor Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫克里斯蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Amcor 2023 年第三季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Ms. Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

謝謝。我現在想把電話轉給我們的主持人，投資者關係主管 Tracey Whitehead 女士。你可以開始你的會議。

Thanks, Christie, and thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's fiscal 2023 Third Quarter and Year-to-date Earnings Call. Joining today is Ron Delia, Amcor's Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer. .

謝謝克里斯蒂，也感謝大家加入 Amcor 的 2023 財年第三季度和年初至今的收益電話會議。今天加入的是 Amcor 的首席執行官 Ron Delia；首席財務官 Michael Casamento。 .

Before I hand over a few items to note on our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call. Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in that press release and the presentation.

在我移交我們網站 amcor.com 上的一些要注意的項目之前，在“投資者”部分下，您會找到今天的新聞稿和演示文稿，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。請注意，我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，相關調節可在該新聞稿和演示文稿中找到。

Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates and reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details.

備註還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天演示文稿中的第二張幻燈片列出了可能導致未來結果與當前估計不同的幾個因素，可以參考 Amcor 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表格上的聲明以獲取更多詳細信息。

(Operator Instructions) With that, over to you, Ron.

（操作員說明）羅恩，交給你了。

Thanks, Tracey, and thanks, everyone, for joining, Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's March quarter and year-to-date results for fiscal 2023. We'll begin with some prepared remarks, starting as we always do with safety on Slide 3. .

謝謝，Tracey，也謝謝大家，邁克爾和我今天加入討論 Amcor 2023 財年 3 月季度和年初至今的業績。我們將從一些準備好的評論開始，一如既往地在 Slide 上處理安全問題3..

Safety is our most important value at Amcor, which means our commitment to keeping our coworkers safe is unwavering. We're highly proactive in our approach to continuous safety improvement and our results continue to be rewarded. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, we reduced injuries globally by 23% compared to last fiscal year and 64% of our global sites have been injury-free for 12 months or more.

安全是我們在 Amcor 最重要的價值觀，這意味著我們對確保我們同事安全的承諾是堅定不移的。我們在持續改進安全方面非常積極主動，我們的成果不斷得到回報。從本財年至今，與上一財年相比，我們在全球範圍內的工傷事故減少了 23%，而且我們全球 64% 的工廠已經連續 12 個月或更長時間沒有發生工傷事故。

While these are excellent industry-leading results and a reflection of our commitment to mitigating risk and protecting our people, the journey towards 0 injuries continues. Turning to our key messages on Slide 4. First, Amcor's portfolio is well positioned and is primarily exposed to consumer staples and health care end markets. We have leadership positions in several strong underlying businesses, a compelling customer value proposition and differentiated execution capabilities, all of which contributed to solid financial performance for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023.

雖然這些都是出色的行業領先結果，也反映了我們對降低風險和保護員工的承諾，但我們仍在繼續朝著零傷害邁進。轉向我們在幻燈片 4 上的關鍵信息。首先，Amcor 的投資組合定位良好，主要面向消費必需品和醫療保健終端市場。我們在幾項強大的基礎業務中處於領先地位，具有令人信服的客戶價值主張和差異化的執行能力，所有這些都為 2023 財年前 9 個月的穩健財務業績做出了貢獻。

That said, we're not completely immune to broader market challenges, and we were cautious heading into the third quarter. Market dynamics led to increased volume softness and volatility throughout the quarter, particularly in the month of March, and our updated outlook assumes this continues through the balance of the fiscal 2023 year. Against this backdrop, our teams remain laser-focused on supporting decisive price and cost actions. The recovery of higher input costs remains a top priority, and we're also taking a range of actions to flex and reduce operating costs while advancing structural cost reductions.

也就是說，我們並非完全不受更廣泛市場挑戰的影響，而且我們在進入第三季度時持謹慎態度。市場動態導致整個季度的交易量疲軟和波動加劇，尤其是在 3 月份，我們更新後的展望假設這種情況將持續到 2023 財年的剩餘時間。在此背景下，我們的團隊仍然專注於支持果斷的價格和成本行動。恢復較高的投入成本仍然是重中之重，我們還在採取一系列行動來調整和降低運營成本，同時推進結構性成本削減。

These actions give us confidence that earnings growth will build as we progress through fiscal '24. Importantly, we remain focused on executing against our strategy for long-term growth and value creation. We have a strong, well-positioned business, and while we navigate short-term challenges, we'll continue to reinvest for organic growth, pursue M&A opportunities and/or repurchase shares and pay a compelling and growing dividend.

這些行動讓我們相信，隨著我們在 24 財年取得進展，盈利增長將會建立。重要的是，我們仍然專注於執行我們的長期增長和價值創造戰略。我們擁有強大、定位良好的業務，在應對短期挑戰的同時，我們將繼續為有機增長進行再投資，尋求併購機會和/或回購股票，並支付引人注目且不斷增長的股息。

Moving to Slide 5 for a summary of our financial results. Reported net sales for the first 9 months were up 4%, which includes an unfavorable currency impact of 4% and approximately $750 million of price increases related to higher raw material costs. Organic sales were up 2% on a comparable constant currency basis and volumes were 2% lower.

轉到幻燈片 5，了解我們的財務業績摘要。前 9 個月的報告淨銷售額增長了 4%，其中包括 4% 的不利貨幣影響以及與原材料成本上漲相關的約 7.5 億美元的價格上漲。在可比的固定貨幣基礎上，有機銷售額增長了 2%，銷量下降了 2%。

For the March quarter, sales were up 1% on a comparable constant currency basis, with volumes down approximately 3.5%. In both periods, price/mix benefits of around 4% included recovery of general inflation, which has totaled approximately $240 million on a year-to-date basis and approached $100 million for the quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBIT of $1.2 billion and EPS of $0.541 per share were both up 4% on a comparable constant currency basis, benefiting from strong operating leverage in the first half of the year.

對於 3 月季度，銷售額按可比固定匯率計算增長 1%，銷量下降約 3.5%。在這兩個時期，約 4% 的價格/組合收益包括一般通貨膨脹的恢復，從年初至今總計約 2.4 億美元，本季度接近 1 億美元。年初至今調整後息稅前利潤為 12 億美元，每股收益為 0.541 美元，按可比固定匯率計算均增長 4%，這得益於今年上半年強勁的經營槓桿。

In the March quarter, adjusted EBIT of $382 million was down 2.5% on a comparable basis versus the prior year. A modest decline as proactive cost actions helped offset significant headwinds related to a challenging operating environment. We continue to execute well on our capital allocation priorities, returning approximately $745 million of cash to shareholders during the first 9 months through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

在 3 月季度，調整後的息稅前利潤為 3.82 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 2.5%。由於積極的成本行動幫助抵消了與具有挑戰性的運營環境相關的重大不利因素，因此出現適度下降。我們繼續很好地執行我們的資本分配優先事項，在前 9 個月通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還了大約 7.45 億美元的現金。

We ramped up our share repurchases during the third quarter, and year-to-date, we've bought back 18 million shares for a total cost of $200 million and our overall financial profile remains robust with return on average funds employed above 16%.

我們在第三季度加大了股票回購力度，今年迄今為止，我們已經回購了 1800 萬股股票，總成本為 2 億美元，我們的整體財務狀況依然強勁，平均動用資金回報率超過 16%。

Now turning to Slide 6. I want to provide a bit more color on what we've seen through the third quarter, and more importantly, the decisive actions we're taking and will continue to take. Three primary factors influenced our performance in both the Flexibles and Rigid Packaging segments in the quarter.

現在轉向幻燈片 6。我想提供更多關於我們在第三季度所看到的情況的顏色，更重要的是，我們正在採取並將繼續採取的決定性行動。三個主要因素影響了我們在本季度軟包裝和硬包裝領域的表現。

First, the general market remains soft and more volatile, leading to lower volumes from a combination of weaker consumer demand and further destocking. Last quarter, we highlighted that demand would be a critical driver of our financial performance, and we expected Q3 and Q4 volumes could be in the range of plus or minus low single digits.

首先，整體市場仍然疲軟且波動更大，導致消費者需求疲軟和進一步去庫存的共同作用導致銷量下降。上個季度，我們強調需求將是我們財務業績的關鍵驅動力，我們預計第三季度和第四季度的銷量可能在正負低個位數範圍內。

In January and February, volumes were tracking at the lower end of those expectations down between 1% and 2%, then weakened through the month of March to be down almost 7%. Volatility in customer order patterns also increased throughout the quarter, most notably in our Rigid Packaging North American beverage business.

1 月和 2 月，成交量處於這些預期的下限，下降 1% 至 2%，然後在 3 月份減弱，下降近 7%。整個季度客戶訂單模式的波動性也有所增加，尤其是在我們的硬包裝北美飲料業務中。

Our teams are adept at flexing the cost base to match anticipated demand although more volatility in orders compromises the ability to pull the appropriate cost levers quickly enough in response, leading to operating inefficiencies. Second, mix trends were unfavorable across much of the business. Destocking continued in higher-value premium coffee and protein categories. And although health care continued to contribute solid growth, it was at a slower rate as we begin to lap a very strong prior year.

我們的團隊擅長靈活調整成本基礎以匹配預期需求，儘管訂單的波動性更大會損害足夠快地拉動適當成本槓桿以做出響應的能力，從而導致運營效率低下。其次，大部分業務的混合趨勢都不利。高價值優質咖啡和蛋白質類別繼續去庫存。儘管醫療保健繼續為穩健增長做出貢獻，但隨著我們開始超越前一年的強勁勢頭，增長速度有所放緩。

Our North American beverage business also experienced unfavorable product and customer mix. And third, cost inflation is ongoing as we expected. While the rate may be moderating in some areas, inflation remains elevated in most of our markets. So these impacts are not entirely new, and we saw the need for caution at the back end of last quarter and have been out in front, proactively managing the controllables and taking decisive pricing cost actions, which continued in Q3.

我們的北美飲料業務也經歷了不利的產品和客戶組合。第三，正如我們預期的那樣，成本通脹正在持續。雖然某些地區的通脹率可能正在放緩，但我們大多數市場的通脹率仍然很高。所以這些影響並不是全新的，我們在上個季度末看到了謹慎的必要性，並且已經走在前面，主動管理可控因素並採取果斷的定價成本行動，這在第三季度繼續進行。

First, we've successfully driven more than $1 billion of price on a year-to-date basis to compensate for higher raw materials and general inflation, and we'll continue to take further actions where inflation persists. Second, we continue to actively flex and reduce operating costs. We've reduced our global headcount by more than 1,000 positions, lower discretionary spending, increased the number of full or partial plant shutdown days and extracted more procurement benefits.

首先，我們已經成功地將年初至今的價格推高了 10 億美元以上，以彌補原材料價格上漲和普遍通貨膨脹的影響，我們將繼續在通貨膨脹持續存在的情況下採取進一步行動。其次，我們繼續積極調整和降低運營成本。我們已經將全球員工人數減少了 1,000 多個職位，減少了可自由支配的支出，增加了工廠全部或部分停工的天數，並獲得了更多的採購收益。

Year-to-date, these efforts have lowered costs by approximately $140 million. We expect to drive additional cost savings of approximately $50 million to $60 million across the business in Q4, including a further reduction of approximately 200 positions. And third, as we've previously announced, we're also pursuing a range of structural cost savings initiatives. And to date, we've announced 3 plant closures and 1 partial closure, and we could add more depending on how the demand environment evolves.

年初至今，這些努力已將成本降低了約 1.4 億美元。我們預計第四季度整個業務將額外節省約 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的成本，包括進一步減少約 200 個職位。第三，正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們還在推行一系列結構性成本節約計劃。迄今為止，我們已經宣布關閉 3 個工廠和 1 個部分關閉，並且我們可以根據需求環境的變化增加更多。

We expect to deliver at least $50 million in cost savings from these structural initiatives, which will begin to benefit earnings in fiscal '24, primarily in the second half. We expect current market conditions will persist in the near term, so we remain laser-focused on controlling what we can control and responding with actions. I'll now turn it over to Michael to cover more of the financials.

我們預計這些結構性舉措將至少節省 5000 萬美元的成本，這將開始有利於 24 財年的收益，主要是在下半年。我們預計當前的市場狀況將在短期內持續存在，因此我們將繼續專注於控制我們可以控制的事情並採取行動做出回應。我現在將其轉交給邁克爾，以涵蓋更多財務信息。

Thanks, Ron, and hi, everyone. Beginning with the Flexibles segment on Slide 7. Year-to-date reported sales grew 2%, which included a recovery of higher raw material costs of approximately $490 million, representing 6% sales growth. Excluding the raw material impact of negative currency movements, sales grew 3%, driven by favorable price/mix benefits across all Flexibles business units, partly offset by 2% lower volumes. .

謝謝，羅恩，大家好。從幻燈片 7 的柔性材料部分開始。年初至今報告的銷售額增長了 2%，其中包括回收較高的原材料成本約 4.9 億美元，代表銷售額增長 6%。排除不利匯率變動對原材料的影響，銷售額增長 3%，這得益於所有柔性材料業務部門有利的價格/組合優勢，部分被銷量下降 2% 所抵消。 .

Our strategic focus on higher-value priority categories has continued to drive year-to-date sales growth, particularly strong volume growth in the health care and pet care categories has helped limit the impact of lower volumes in other categories such as protein and premium coffee.

我們對高價值優先類別的戰略重點繼續推動年初至今的銷售額增長，特別是醫療保健和寵物護理類別的強勁銷量增長有助於限制蛋白質和優質咖啡等其他類別銷量下降的影響.

The business has continued to show solid operating cost performance and recovery of inflation, resulting in a 5% year-to-date increase in adjusted EBIT on a comparable constant currency basis. Margins remained strong at 12.4% despite the 80 basis point dilution related to increased sales dollars from passing through higher raw material costs.

該業務繼續表現出穩健的運營成本表現和通脹回升，導致年初至今調整後息稅前利潤在可比固定貨幣基礎上增長 5%。儘管原材料成本增加導致銷售收入增加導致 80 個基點的稀釋，但利潤率仍保持在 12.4% 的強勁水平。

In terms of the third quarter, a few call outs worth touching on. Net sales on a comparable constant currency basis were 2% higher, reflecting positive price/mix benefits. Volumes were down 3% in the quarter as market conditions led to a combination of lower consumer demand and customer destocking to varying degrees across all Flexibles businesses. This compares to a 1% reduction in volumes in the first half of the year, with the greatest sequential declines in Europe and North America, where compared with the same quarter last year, volumes were down mid-single digits and low single digits, respectively.

就第三季度而言，一些值得一提的呼籲。按可比固定貨幣計算的淨銷售額增長 2%，反映出積極的價格/組合優勢。本季度銷量下降 3%，原因是市場條件導致消費者需求下降和客戶在所有柔性材料業務中不同程度地去庫存。相比之下，今年上半年的銷量下降了 1%，歐洲和北美的環比降幅最大，與去年同期相比，銷量分別下降了中個位數和低個位數.

In both regions, the overall trends towards lower volumes and month-to-month variability is consistent with retail scanner data with categories such as premium coffee and protein being incrementally impacted by customer destocking. This also contributed to unfavorable mix in the quarter, along with expected slowing of growth rates in health care as we cycled strong growth in the prior year.

在這兩個地區，銷量下降和逐月變化的總體趨勢與零售掃描儀數據一致，優質咖啡和蛋白質等類別受到客戶去庫存的影響越來越大。這也導致了本季度的不利組合，以及隨著我們在前一年的強勁增長中循環，預計醫療保健增長率將放緩。

Adjusted EBIT for the quarter was broadly in line with the prior year on a comparable constant currency basis, reflecting unfavorable volume and mix trends and ongoing cost inflation. This was offset by continued pricing actions and benefits from cost productivity and cost reduction initiatives, which increased as we progressed through the quarter.

本季度調整後的息稅前利潤在可比的固定貨幣基礎上與上一年基本持平，反映出不利的銷量和組合趨勢以及持續的成本通脹。這被持續的定價行動以及成本生產力和成本削減計劃帶來的好處所抵消，隨著我們在本季度的進展，這些好處有所增加。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 8. On a year-to-date basis, net sales were 8% higher than the same period last year, including approximately $260 million or 11% of sales related to the pass-through of higher raw material costs. Organic sales declined by 2%, reflecting 3% lower volumes, partly offset by 1% price/mix benefits. In North America, overall beverage volumes for the first 9 months were down 5%, hot fill volumes were up 2% and are significantly up over the past 2 years, with growth in key categories, including isotonics, juices and ready-to-drink tea, offset by lower cold fill container volumes, which reflects a combination of lower consumer demand and customer destocking.

轉到幻燈片 8 上的硬包裝。年初至今，淨銷售額比去年同期高 8%，其中約 2.6 億美元或 11% 的銷售額與較高的原材料成本轉嫁相關.有機銷售額下降 2%，反映銷量下降 3%，部分被 1% 的價格/組合收益所抵消。在北美，前 9 個月的整體飲料銷量下降了 5%，熱灌裝銷量增長了 2%，並且在過去 2 年中顯著增長，關鍵類別的增長，包括等滲飲料、果汁和即飲飲料茶，被較低的冷灌裝容器量所抵消，這反映了較低的消費者需求和客戶去庫存的結合。

Specialty container volumes were comparable with last year, and Latin America volumes were down 2% with challenging economic conditions leading to lower consumption across most of the region. Year-to-date adjusted EBIT was in line with last year as strong earnings growth in the first half was offset by a more challenging March quarter. Adjusted EBIT margin of 7.2% includes an adverse impact of approximately 80 basis points from the increased sales dollar related to passing through higher raw material costs.

特種集裝箱運量與去年相當，而拉丁美洲的運量下降了 2%，原因是經濟形勢嚴峻導致該地區大部分地區的消費量下降。年初至今的調整後息稅前利潤與去年持平，因為上半年強勁的盈利增長被更具挑戰性的 3 月季度所抵消。調整後的息稅前利潤率為 7.2%，其中包括與原材料成本上漲相關的銷售額增加帶來的約 80 個基點的不利影響。

Looking at the March quarter, Comparable constant currency net sales were down 4% with continued soft consumer demand and customer destocking driving volumes lower in both North America and Latin America. Adjusted EBIT for the quarter was down $7 million on a constant currency basis, reflecting unfavorable volume and mix trends and ongoing cost inflation. This was partly offset by benefits from cost reduction initiatives.

縱觀 3 月季度，由於消費者需求持續疲軟和客戶去庫存導致北美和拉丁美洲銷量下降，可比固定貨幣淨銷售額下降了 4%。按固定匯率計算，本季度調整後的息稅前利潤下降了 700 萬美元，反映出不利的銷量和組合趨勢以及持續的成本通脹。這部分被成本削減舉措帶來的好處所抵消。

And as Ron mentioned earlier, volatility has been particularly notable in North America beverage business, with order patterns changing on a week-to-week basis, significantly impacting our ability to flex costs quickly enough in response.

正如 Ron 之前提到的，北美飲料業務的波動性尤為顯著，訂單模式每週都在變化，這極大地影響了我們快速調整成本以做出響應的能力。

Combined with mid-single-digit volume declines and unfavorable customer product mix trends, this has had a meaningful impact on operating leverage for our beverage business than we have seen in other businesses. As market-driven consumer demand remains soft and customers continue to reduce inventories, the business took a range of actions to lower costs, including reducing headcount.

結合中等個位數的銷量下降和不利的客戶產品組合趨勢，這對我們飲料業務的經營槓桿產生了重大影響，這比我們在其他業務中看到的要大。由於市場驅動的消費者需求依然疲軟，客戶繼續減少庫存，該企業採取了一系列措施來降低成本，包括裁員。

Across the network this year, the business has also taken temporary plant shutdowns to better align production with lower demand where possible and to prioritize our inventory reduction efforts. Looking ahead, the June quarter is typically the seasonally strongest quarter for North America beverage business.

今年，在整個網絡中，該企業還臨時關閉了工廠，以便在可能的情況下更好地使生產與較低的需求保持一致，並優先考慮我們的庫存減少工作。展望未來，六月季度通常是北美飲料業務季節性最強的季度。

This year, based on continued challenging market dynamics, we expect volume weakness with increased volatility mix challenges and ongoing inflation to persist through the U.S. summer and we anticipate the need to continue reducing inventories through the June quarter.

今年，基於持續具有挑戰性的市場動態，我們預計銷量疲軟、波動性組合挑戰加劇和持續通脹將持續整個美國夏季，我們預計需要在 6 月季度繼續減少庫存。

As a result, relative to what we have seen in the March quarter, we expect this combination of factors to have a larger unfavorable impact on June quarter earnings compared to the same quarter last year. Moving to cash on the balance sheet on Slide 9.

因此，相對於我們在 3 月季度看到的情況，我們預計與去年同期相比，這些因素的組合將對 6 月季度的收益產生更大的不利影響。在幻燈片 9 的資產負債表上轉為現金。

Our financial profile remains strong with leverage at 3.1x on a trailing 12-month EBITDA basis, broadly in line with last year and where we would expect it to be at this time of year. Year-to-date cash flow remains below last year, mostly related to lower accounts payable balances as we moderate our purchasing activities, partly to reduce inventories, but also to reflect the soft demand environment.

我們的財務狀況依然強勁，過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 槓桿率為 3.1 倍，與去年和我們預計每年這個時候的水平基本持平。年初至今的現金流量仍低於去年，這主要與我們減少採購活動導致應付賬款餘額減少有關，部分原因是為了減少庫存，但也反映了疲軟的需求環境。

This is a timing impact, which will abate in the coming quarters. We are already making good progress on inventories with balances coming down over the last several months, and we expect a further reduction in the June quarter. Our cash flow is typically weighted to the fourth quarter, and we expect adjusted free cash flow in Q4 to be broadly in line with last year. This brings me to our outlook on Slide 10.

這是一種時間影響，將在未來幾個季度減弱。我們已經在庫存方面取得了良好進展，過去幾個月餘額下降，我們預計 6 月季度將進一步減少。我們的現金流通常加權到第四季度，我們預計第四季度調整後的自由現金流將與去年大致持平。這讓我想到了我們對幻燈片 10 的展望。

Given our expectation that current market conditions will persist in the near term, leading to a mid-single-digit overall volume decline in the fourth quarter, we are updating our guidance range for adjusted EPS to $0.72 to $0.74 per share assuming current foreign exchange rates prevail through the balance of the year.

鑑於我們預計當前的市場狀況將在短期內持續下去，導致第四季度整體銷量下降中個位數，我們將調整後每股收益的指導範圍更新為每股 0.72 美元至 0.74 美元（假設當前匯率）在今年餘下的時間裡佔上風。

We also expect full year adjusted free cash flow in the range of $800 million to $900 million, which includes our updated expectations on timing for working capital improvements. The slide lays out the elements making up our guidance. We expect a benefit of approximately 2% from share repurchases and earnings from the underlying business to be in line with last year, notwithstanding the significant market challenges we faced and will continue to face through the balance of fiscal '23.

我們還預計全年調整後的自由現金流在 8 億美元至 9 億美元之間，其中包括我們對營運資本改善時間的最新預期。幻燈片列出了構成我們指南的要素。我們預計股票回購帶來的收益和基礎業務的收益將與去年持平，儘管我們面臨並將在 23 財年剩餘時間內繼續面臨重大市場挑戰。

As Ron mentioned, we have already passed through more than $1 billion in price related to raw materials and general inflation and delivered $140 million of cost reductions year to date and we expect to deliver an additional $50 million to $60 million in cost savings across the business in the fourth quarter. Throughout the year, we've also highlighted the significant nonoperating headwinds we faced from higher interest expense and the divestiture of our 3 plants in Russia, which will be absent or significantly reduced in the second half of fiscal '24. But combined with the benefits from the proactive actions we are taking in response to current market conditions, we are confident that earnings growth will build as we progress through the 2024 fiscal year. With that, I'll hand back to Ron.

正如 Ron 提到的那樣，我們已經通過與原材料和一般通貨膨脹相關的超過 10 億美元的價格，並且今年迄今為止實現了 1.4 億美元的成本削減，我們預計將在整個業務中額外節省 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的成本在第四季度。全年，我們還強調了我們面臨的重大非運營不利因素，包括更高的利息支出和我們在俄羅斯的 3 家工廠的資產剝離，這將在 24 財年下半年消失或大幅減少。但結合我們為應對當前市場狀況而採取的積極行動所帶來的好處，我們相信，隨著我們在 2024 財年取得進展，盈利增長將會增加。有了這個，我會交還給羅恩。

Okay. Thanks, Michael. While we navigate a challenging environment in the short term, we have a strong foundation, and we remain committed to our strategy of driving long-term growth and profitability. And that strategy consists of investments in both organic growth and strategic M&A. .

好的。謝謝，邁克爾。雖然我們在短期內應對充滿挑戰的環境，但我們擁有堅實的基礎，我們將繼續致力於推動長期增長和盈利能力的戰略。該戰略包括對有機增長和戰略併購的投資。 .

On previous calls, we've highlighted the importance of our priority categories, emerging markets and innovation in helping deliver organic growth and better mix over the longer term. And our financial results over the years have demonstrated the success of that focus. For the longer-term comments today, I want to highlight how M&A complements each of these areas and spend a little time outlining our approach to delivering additional growth through acquisitions.

在之前的電話會議上，我們強調了我們的優先類別、新興市場和創新在幫助實現有機增長和更好的長期組合方面的重要性。我們多年來的財務業績證明了這一重點的成功。對於今天的長期評論，我想強調併購如何補充這些領域中的每一個領域，並花一點時間概述我們通過收購實現額外增長的方法。

Turning to Slide 12. Disciplined M&A has been a part of Amcor's playbook for a long time. Our history of successful deal execution and integration has helped us establish or build industry-leading positions, support earnings growth and drive consistent value creation.

轉到幻燈片 12。有紀律的併購長期以來一直是 Amcor 戰略的一部分。我們成功執行交易和整合的歷史幫助我們建立或建立行業領先地位，支持收益增長並推動持續的價值創造。

Our model starts with strategic fit. We look across a number of factors when prioritizing opportunities, including businesses where Amcor or the target has a leadership position, where the target can complement our existing footprint or where we gain access to a new customer base or new technologies.

我們的模型從戰略契合開始。在確定機會的優先級時，我們會考慮多種因素，包括 Amcor 或目標公司處於領先地位的業務，目標公司可以補充我們現有的足跡，或者我們可以獲得新客戶群或新技術的業務。

Second, in terms of financial strategy, we have been and will continue to be highly disciplined. We target all deals to deliver a double-digit return on the cash investment and well above our cost of capital within 3 to 5 years. And third, our investment-grade balance sheet and strong annual cash flow provide ample capacity and access to financing to continue to pursue M&A or share repurchases in addition to investing in the base business and funding the dividend. And we've been quietly active on the acquisition front. Last week, we signed a deal to acquire Moda Systems, a New Zealand-based manufacturer of high-performance vacuum packaging equipment for the fresh meat, poultry and dairy markets, with machines currently installed in a number of geographies, including North America.

其次，在財務戰略方面，我們一直並將繼續嚴格遵守紀律。我們的目標是讓所有交易在 3 到 5 年內實現兩位數的現金投資回報，並遠高於我們的資本成本。第三，我們的投資級資產負債表和強勁的年度現金流提供了充足的能力和融資渠道，除了投資於基礎業務和為股息提供資金外，還可以繼續進行併購或股票回購。我們一直在收購方面悄悄地活躍。上週，我們簽署了收購 Moda Systems 的協議，Moda Systems 是一家新西蘭的鮮肉、家禽和乳製品市場高性能真空包裝設備製造商，目前在包括北美在內的多個地區安裝了機器。

This is a small but important acquisition, which will complement Amcor's existing strength in film enabling us to offer a total system solution for automated protein packaging. Other recent deals over the past 9 months include the acquisition of Shanghai-based medical packaging company, MDK in January, a deal that checks all the boxes to reinforce a priority category, expand an emerging market and broaden our product technology offering.

這是一項小而重要的收購，它將補充 Amcor 在薄膜方面的現有實力，使我們能夠為自動化蛋白質包裝提供完整的系統解決方案。過去 9 個月的其他近期交易包括在 1 月份收購上海醫療包裝公司 MDK，該交易勾選了所有方框以加強優先類別、拓展新興市場並擴大我們的產品技術範圍。

And in August last year, we completed the acquisition of a state-of-the-art Flexibles packaging plant in the Czech Republic which increases our capacity to service strong growth in end markets, including pet care and coffee from a highly efficient, scalable production hub in a low-cost region.

去年 8 月，我們完成了對捷克共和國一家最先進的軟包裝工廠的收購，這提高了我們服務終端市場強勁增長的能力，包括來自高效、可擴展生產的寵物護理和咖啡低成本地區的樞紐。

On the corporate venturing side, our teams have done an excellent job identifying opportunities to help fund, support and learn from new external developments that have the potential to become smart, functional and sustainable packaging solutions in the future. M&A and corporate venturing are integral parts of our growth agenda and looking forward, we'll continue to be active, but also strategic and disciplined.

在企業風險投資方面，我們的團隊在確定機會方面做得非常出色，可以幫助資助、支持和學習新的外部發展，這些發展有可能在未來成為智能、實用和可持續的包裝解決方案。併購和企業風險投資是我們增長議程不可或缺的一部分，展望未來，我們將繼續保持活躍，同時保持戰略性和紀律性。

Before we turn to questions, just a minute on sustainability on Slide 13. We continue to advance our sustainability agenda on a number of fronts, and our success in supporting customers transition their own portfolios to more sustainable solutions and reduce their carbon footprints has recently been acknowledged by several important industry third parties.

在我們轉向問題之前，請先花一分鐘時間了解幻燈片 13 上的可持續性。我們繼續在多個方面推進我們的可持續性議程，我們最近成功地支持客戶將他們自己的投資組合轉變為更可持續的解決方案並減少他們的碳足跡。得到了幾個重要的行業第三方的認可。

Early in 2023, our innovation and sustainable product design leadership was highlighted by the World Packaging organization with Amcor's AmPrima and AmSky recycle-ready product platforms named as winners in 3 categories. In February, the CDP or carbon disclosure project awarded Amcor and A- as part of its annual ratings. And this superior grade recognizes Amcor's ongoing sustainability commitment and achievements, including our pledge to achieve net 0 emissions by 2050 and our new target to use 30% recycled material across Amcor by 2030.

2023 年初，世界包裝組織強調了我們在創新和可持續產品設計方面的領先地位，Amcor 的 AmPrima 和 AmSky 回收就緒產品平台被評為 3 個類別的獲獎者。 2 月，CDP 或碳披露項目授予 Amcor 和 A- 作為其年度評級的一部分。這一卓越等級認可了 Amcor 持續的可持續發展承諾和成就，包括我們承諾到 2050 年實現淨零排放，以及我們到 2030 年在整個 Amcor 中使用 30% 回收材料的新目標。

And also in February, Amcor's leadership in responsible packaging and overall commitment to ESG was recognized by MSCI with a AA rating, marking the fifth consecutive year that we received the ranking. In summary, on Slide 14, the market remains challenging, but we're well positioned and confident in our ability to manage through this short-term period while continuing to generate value for our customers and shareholders.

同樣在 2 月，Amcor 在負責任的包裝和對 ESG 的整體承諾方面的領導地位獲得了 MSCI 的 AA 評級，這是我們連續第五年獲得該排名。總而言之，在幻燈片 14 上，市場仍然充滿挑戰，但我們處於有利地位，並且相信我們有能力在短期內進行管理，同時繼續為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

Most importantly, we believe the actions we're taking now will result in earnings growth building as we progress through fiscal '24, and we remain focused on delivering against our strategies for long-term growth, including executing well on M&A, and expanding our leadership in sustainability. Operator, with those opening remarks concluded, we are ready to open the call to questions. Operator, we're ready to open the line for questions.

最重要的是，我們相信，隨著我們在 24 財年取得進展，我們現在採取的行動將導致盈利增長，我們仍然專注於實現我們的長期增長戰略，包括在併購方面的良好執行，以及擴大我們的可持續發展的領導地位。接線員，開場白結束後，我們準備好開始提問了。接線員，我們已準備好打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi 系列。

Ron, maybe you could just build off your comments and just touch on which specific categories you expect incremental volume weakness in the June quarter? I think the March quarter was down 3%, you're getting towards down mid-single digits and then also expand a bit more on the dynamic order patterns that you're calling out from your customers?

羅恩，也許你可以根據你的評論，談談你預計 6 月季度增量銷量疲軟的具體類別？我認為 3 月季度下降了 3%，您正在接近中個位數下降，然後還會進一步擴展您從客戶那裡呼喚的動態訂單模式？

Yes, good way to get us started here Ghansham. The volume story has been quite volatile. I mean if you go back even to the end of our second quarter, we had flagged that demand had -- or volumes had softened coming through the back end of calendar '22, and that certainly continued. In the first couple of months of the year, January and February, we were down about 1% or 2%, March, down almost 7% with the heightened volatility, which I'll come back to. As we look forward to the fourth quarter, We just are extrapolating what we've experienced in March and to some extent, already through the month of April to get to that mid-single-digit decline.

是的，這是讓我們從這裡開始的好方法 Ghansham。銷量的故事一直很不穩定。我的意思是，如果你甚至回到我們的第二季度末，我們已經表明需求已經 - 或者在日曆'22 的後端出現了疲軟，而且這種情況肯定會持續下去。在今年的前幾個月，1 月和 2 月，我們下跌了約 1% 或 2%，3 月，隨著波動加劇，下跌了近 7%，我將回過頭來。當我們期待第四季度時，我們只是在推斷我們在 3 月份以及在某種程度上已經經歷了 4 月份的情況，以達到中個位數的下降。

It's pretty broad-based. It's relatively broad across the business where we see weakness. We do see sequential deterioration in the retail scanner data, particularly in Europe and North America. So the consumer side of demand is weak and doesn't seem to have started to improve.

它的基礎非常廣泛。它在我們看到弱點的整個業務中相對廣泛。我們確實看到零售掃描儀數據連續惡化，尤其是在歐洲和北美。因此，消費方面的需求疲軟，似乎還沒有開始改善。

And then we also know there's continued destocking in certain categories. And we've seen destocking -- continue to see destocking in a number of categories, particularly ones that were affected by some of the supply chain constraints over the last 18 to 24 months where we know there was a lot of over-ordering in some cases, to buttress against those challenges.

然後我們也知道某些類別的庫存持續減少。我們已經看到去庫存 - 繼續看到許多類別的去庫存，特別是在過去 18 到 24 個月中受到某些供應鏈限制影響的類別，我們知道其中一些類別存在大量過量訂購案例，以應對這些挑戰。

So segments like meat, certain parts of the coffee space, premium coffee, health care, to some extent, which is cycling a stronger comp. So that's what we expect for the fourth quarter. As far as the volatility, it's really just week-to-week order changes and schedule alterations and things of that nature, which just make it a little bit harder to take as much cost out as you'd like.

因此，肉類、咖啡空間的某些部分、優質咖啡、醫療保健等細分市場在某種程度上正在循環更強大的競爭。這就是我們對第四季度的預期。就波動性而言，這實際上只是每週的訂單變更和時間表變更以及類似性質的事情，這只會讓您更難以隨心所欲地減少成本。

It's just a particularly volatile period out there. North American beverage, in particular, for a number of reasons, including the seasonality of that business has continued to be particularly volatile. So -- we're expecting that to continue along with the demand weakness in the fiscal fourth quarter here.

這只是一個特別動蕩的時期。尤其是北美飲料，由於多種原因，包括該業務的季節性繼續特別不穩定。所以——我們預計第四財季的需求疲軟將繼續下去。

And then on that, Ron, for my second question, just given the operating environment that your customers are facing with at this -- are faced with at this point. Is that starting to impact their new product development cadence? And how does that compare to previous slowdowns, i.e., recessions in the past?

然後，羅恩，關於我的第二個問題，只是考慮到您的客戶此時所面臨的運營環境——此時所面臨的。這會開始影響他們的新產品開發節奏嗎？這與之前的經濟放緩（即過去的經濟衰退）相比如何？

It hasn't necessarily slowed the dialogue with customers on new product development. I would say almost universally, our new product development agenda is with our big customers are oriented around sustainable packaging and delivering a package that's more sustainable than the one that's in the market today.

它不一定會減緩與客戶就新產品開發進行的對話。我幾乎可以說，我們的新產品開發議程是針對我們的大客戶，以可持續包裝為導向，並提供比當今市場上的包裝更具可持續性的包裝。

That has not abated at all. That has not slowed. If anything, it's accelerated as we came out of COVID. Our brand owners have the same public commitments that we have to make their packaging recyclable or compostable or reusable mostly by 2025 and to use more recycled content. And so we've not seen any slowdown to date in the product development side.

這根本沒有減弱。這並沒有放緩。如果有的話，當我們擺脫 COVID 時，它會加速。我們的品牌所有者有同樣的公開承諾，即我們必須在 2025 年之前使他們的包裝大部分可回收、可堆肥或可重複使用，並使用更多的回收材料。因此，迄今為止，我們還沒有看到產品開發方面出現任何放緩。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Anthony Pettinari。

Ron, I'm wondering what the full year guidance might assume for kind of where price cost could shake out for fiscal 4Q? And then just maybe directionally what that price cost trajectory could look like early next fiscal year? And maybe if you could just give us any kind of additional color on resin or labor or any other cost buckets that are impacting you?

羅恩，我想知道全年指導可能會假設第四財季的價格成本可能會出現什麼情況？然後可能只是方向性的價格成本軌跡在下個財年年初會是什麼樣子？也許你能不能給我們任何一種關於樹脂或人工或任何其他影響你的成本桶的額外顏色？

Yes, it's Michael here. I can take that one for you. Thanks for the question. Yes, look, I mean, Q4, where we see raw materials right now, we've seen a relatively benign environment in Q3. Q1, we saw raw materials come off, in Q2 a more modest reduction. And then in Q2, Q3, relatively flat remembering that we have a broad base of raw materials we purchased and geographies across the globe.

是的，我是邁克爾。我可以拿那個給你。謝謝你的問題。是的，我的意思是，第四季度，我們現在看到的是原材料，我們在第三季度看到了一個相對良性的環境。第一季度，我們看到原材料價格下降，第二季度的降幅更為溫和。然後在第二季度、第三季度，相對平穩，記住我們在全球範圍內購買了廣泛的原材料基礎。

So as we look forward into Q4, relatively benign environment, we'd expect. So from a price/cost perspective, -- you've seen it actually come down as we've progressed through the year. So in Q4, it's going to be a very modest price increase or flat thereabouts.

因此，當我們展望第四季度時，我們期望相對良性的環境。所以從價格/成本的角度來看，你已經看到它實際上隨著我們一年的進展而下降。因此，在第四季度，價格將出現非常適度的上漲或持平。

From an inflationary standpoint, we continue to see inflation in things like labor. I mean we've reset labor rates as of the first of January. So you've seen mid-single-digit increases there continue. Things like energy we continue to see increases and spikes in places like the West Coast of North America and Europe, still seeing significant increases in energy in that space.

從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們繼續看到勞動力等方面的通貨膨脹。我的意思是我們從 1 月 1 日起就重置了人工費率。所以你已經看到中個位數的增長還在繼續。像能源這樣的東西，我們繼續看到北美和歐洲西海岸等地的增長和峰值，仍然看到該領域的能源顯著增加。

So you saw us talk about the recovery of around $250 million in price year-to-date on general inflation and $750 million on raw materials. As we look forward into Q4, I think from a general inflation standpoint, we'd expect to see a similar number as we saw in Q3, which is around that $100 million mark.

所以你看到我們談論今年迄今價格因一般通貨膨脹而回升約 2.5 億美元，原材料價格回升 7.5 億美元。當我們展望第四季度時，我認為從一般通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們預計會看到與第三季度相似的數字，即 1 億美元左右。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just one quick follow-up on the $50 million structural cost reduction. Is there any view in terms of that being weighted more towards '24 or '25, it seems like it could be pretty sizable if that fell to the bottom line?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是對 5000 萬美元結構性成本削減的快速跟進。是否有任何觀點認為它更傾向於'24 或'25，如果下降到底線，它似乎可能相當大？

Yes, sure. I mean, just to remind people the structural benefits program, we're investing around $170 million in cash to help offset the disposed Russia earnings. The expectation is that the benefits from that will be around 30% on the cash investment. We've already made some initial inroads into those projects. We've closed 3 plants and a past closure as well. So we'd expect the benefits start to build on that through FY '24, albeit weighted to the second half of FY '24. .

是的，當然。我的意思是，為了提醒人們結構性福利計劃，我們將投資約 1.7 億美元的現金，以幫助抵消已處置的俄羅斯收益。預計現金投資的收益將達到 30% 左右。我們已經對這些項目取得了一些初步進展。我們已經關閉了 3 家工廠，也關閉了一家工廠。因此，我們預計收益將在 24 財年開始在此基礎上建立，儘管加權到 24 財年的下半年。 .

And so we'd expect 2/3 or a little more of the benefit of that $50 million to come through in '24 and then the balance in '25. But we've made a good start on that, and you'll start to see those benefits build through the year in '24.

因此，我們預計這 5000 萬美元的收益中有 2/3 或更多一點將在 24 年實現，然後是 25 年的餘額。但是我們在這方面有了一個良好的開端，您將開始看到這些好處在 24 年的一年中不斷積累。

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Chau with MST.

你的下一個問題來自 MST 的 Keith Chau。

Just a couple of questions. First one is on destocking versus the underlying weakness. Just wondering Ron, if you can give us a sense of that 10% decline in March in particular and then the mid-single-digit decline for the fourth quarter. Can you give us a sense of what you believe makes up those numbers, whether it is destocking or underlying demand weakness?

只是幾個問題。第一個是關於去庫存與潛在疲軟的關係。只是想知道羅恩，你是否能告訴我們特別是 3 月份 10% 的下降，然後是第四季度的中個位數下降。您能否告訴我們您認為構成這些數字的原因，無論是去庫存還是潛在需求疲軟？

Yes. Sure, Keith. Look, it's hard to parse out too specifically, but a couple of things to think about. One is that the scanner data in Europe and North America that's tracking sell-through at retail has been in that mid-single-digit decline range now for a period -- for a reasonable period of time a couple of months at least. And so we're not anticipating that that's going to improve at all on top of which then you have some destocking in certain segments. Some of them are pronounced destocking we see is in the premium coffee space.

是的。當然，基思。看，很難具體分析，但有幾件事需要考慮。一個是歐洲和北美跟踪零售銷售的掃描儀數據現在已經處於中個位數下降範圍內一段時間 - 至少在幾個月的合理時間段內。因此，我們預計這根本不會有所改善，然後你會在某些領域進行一些去庫存。其中一些明顯去庫存，我們在優質咖啡領域看到了這一點。

We see destocking in protein, we've seen destocking to some extent in the medical packaging space, again, places where there may have been some over ordering in light of supply chain constraints. So that's additive then to the demand deterioration on the consumer side of things. And then the offset is that we pick up some share along the way as well. So those are the 3 components of what we expect to be a mid-single digit decline in Q4.

我們看到蛋白質庫存減少，我們已經看到醫療包裝領域在一定程度上減少庫存，同樣，鑑於供應鏈限制，這些地方可能存在一些過度訂購的地方。因此，這會增加消費者方面的需求惡化。然後抵消是我們一路上也獲得了一些份額。因此，這些是我們預計第四季度中個位數下降的 3 個組成部分。

Okay. And then in terms of the timing of the destock, do you expect that to completely finish by the end of 4Q? Is there any anything to suggest that your customers might destock for longer into FY '24?

好的。然後關於去庫存的時間，您預計在四季度末徹底完成嗎？是否有任何跡象表明您的客戶可能會在 24 財年的更長時間內去庫存？

Given that we're talking about fast-moving consumer goods, any destocking should be relatively short-lived. The caveat to that is as consumer demand comes down, that means more inventory needs to come out of the system.

鑑於我們談論的是快速消費品，任何去庫存都應該是相對短暫的。需要注意的是，隨著消費者需求的下降，這意味著更多的庫存需要從系統中流出。

And so my sense is that, that's prolonging the destocking here a little bit because it's been going on now for a couple of quarters. And by our best estimates that probably will continue for another couple of quarters, particularly in some of the businesses that are more seasonal, where the calendar second quarter and third quarter tend to be stronger, we're likely to see more inventory come out of the system through that time period. .

所以我的感覺是，這稍微延長了這裡的去庫存，因為它已經持續了幾個季度。根據我們的最佳估計，這種情況可能會持續幾個季度，特別是在一些更具季節性的業務中，日曆上的第二季度和第三季度往往更強勁，我們可能會看到更多庫存來自系統通過該時間段。 .

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Kang with CLSA.

你的下一個問題來自 CLSA 的 Daniel Kang。

First question, probably for Mike, in terms of cost-out initiatives. Just wondering if the scope of the plans have actually changed from 2Q where you mentioned $170 million spend for a 30% return. Can it be expanded is the next question?

第一個問題，可能是針對邁克的，關於成本削減計劃。只是想知道計劃的範圍是否真的從第二季度發生了變化，你提到 1.7 億美元的支出以獲得 30% 的回報。下一個問題可以擴展嗎？

Yes. It's Ron, I'll start to answer and Michael can build on it. Look, the scope is global. And we've announced 3 plants that are going to come out of the system already and another half of the plan, a big department that we're going to reduce and it's a global program. Could it be more? It could be. We're going to wait and see how the demand environment evolves from here, but we're off to a good start and those plants will be coming out of the system over the next several quarters with the benefits flowing through the second half of -- well, building through fiscal '24, as Michael outlined already.

是的。我是羅恩，我會開始回答，邁克爾可以在此基礎上繼續發言。看，範圍是全球的。我們已經宣布了 3 家工廠已經從系統中脫穎而出，另外一半的計劃是我們將要裁減的一個大部門，這是一個全球計劃。可以更多嗎？它可能是。我們將拭目以待需求環境如何從這裡演變，但我們有了一個良好的開端，這些工廠將在接下來的幾個季度內退出系統，並在下半年帶來收益 - - 好吧，正如邁克爾已經概述的那樣，通過 24 財年建設。

You also mentioned in the prior question in terms of market share -- incremental market share gains. Can you talk about the categories where you are seeing the most success in terms of market share gains?

您還在前面的問題中提到了市場份額——增量市場份額收益。您能談談在市場份額增長方面您認為最成功的類別嗎？

I think we see some good examples in the beverage business, in particular, in the hot fill space. Our hot fill volumes were up about 1%, which is ahead of the market. And I think it's a testament to the different lightweighting products that we've been able to bring to the market. That's one. I think in health care is another one where our growth has been really strong, particularly in the pharmaceutical side of things over the last several quarters, probably going back into last year as well. So those 2 come to mind as places where we're likely to have picked up a bit of share .

我認為我們在飲料行業看到了一些很好的例子，尤其是在熱灌裝領域。我們的熱灌裝量增長了約 1%，領先於市場。我認為這證明了我們能夠推向市場的不同輕量化產品。那是一個。我認為醫療保健是我們增長非常強勁的另一個領域，特別是在過去幾個季度的製藥方面，可能也可以追溯到去年。因此，這 2 個是我們可能會獲得一些份額的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自 Adam Samuelson 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Yes. I guess the first question, Ron, you talked in the prepared remarks about earnings growth building through fiscal '24. And I know you're not giving earnings guidance at this point. But as you would sit here today and you would look at kind of where the exit rate is after the June quarter and some of the headwinds you still have from Russia in September and the December quarters. .

是的。我想第一個問題，羅恩，你在準備好的評論中談到了通過 24 財年建立盈利增長。而且我知道你此時沒有給出收益指導。但是就像你今天坐在這裡一樣，你會看看 6 月季度之後的退出率，以及 9 月和 12 月季度俄羅斯仍然面臨的一些不利因素。 .

Would you expect to grow EBITDA and EPS in fiscal '24 Or help us think about some of the key variables to actually growing in fiscal '24 as you look today?

您是否期望 24 財年的 EBITDA 和 EPS 增長，或者幫助我們思考一些關鍵變量，以實現您今天所看到的 24 財年實際增長？

Yes. Look, I think we're going to have a couple of nonoperating headwinds dissipate as we get into fiscal '24. So certainly, we won't be cycling the absence of the Russian earnings in the second half. We sold that business right at the end of our fiscal first half this past year. So by the end of this calendar year or the end of our fiscal second quarter, that headwind will go away. Interest rates really started to rise around this time last year. And so that's going to be -- interest will be more of a headwind in the first half. But certainly, based on the forward curve and the expectations we have for rates going into calendar '24, we would expect that headwind abates.

是的。看，我認為當我們進入 24 財年時，一些非經營性逆風將會消散。所以當然，我們不會在下半年沒有俄羅斯收益的情況下循環。我們在去年上半年財政結束時賣掉了這項業務。因此，到本日曆年末或我們的第二財季末，這種逆風將會消失。去年這個時候利率真的開始上升。所以這將是 - 上半年的興趣將更加不利。但可以肯定的是，根據遠期曲線和我們對進入 24 年日曆的利率的預期，我們預計逆風會減弱。

And then the third building block is the structural cost reductions that we've talked about a bit. And as Michael said, it's roughly $50 million of benefits that we see at this point in time. Roughly 2/3 of those benefits, we would expect in fiscal '24, with the momentum building through the second half of fiscal '24. So those are some of the big components. And the other piece, obviously, is just what happens to underlying demand and how does that evolve through the rest of the year. And we're certainly not in a position today to forecast that. I think we'll wait until we come to market as we do each year in August and provide guidance for the coming fiscal; year.

然後第三個組成部分是我們已經討論過的結構性成本降低。正如邁克爾所說，我們目前看到的收益約為 5000 萬美元。我們預計在 24 財年將獲得大約 2/3 的收益，並在 24 財年下半年建立勢頭。所以這些是一些重要的組成部分。顯然，另一部分就是潛在需求發生了什麼，以及它在今年餘下時間裡是如何演變的。我們今天當然無法預測這一點。我認為我們會像每年 8 月那樣等到我們進入市場，然後為即將到來的財政年度提供指導；年。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as you think about some of the mix tailwinds that you've had in the business, I mean, you were still quite strong in the in the March quarter, specifically in Flexibles. How does mix kind of progress from here, especially raw material kind of constraints and supply chain, I think have magnified some of those or those are easing, some of the comps get a little bit harder on the mix side? And how do we think about that being a contributor prospectively from the book of business that you have today?

好的。這很有幫助。然後當你想到你在業務中遇到的一些混合順風時，我的意思是，你在三月份的季度仍然非常強勁，特別是在 Flexibles 方面。從這裡混合取得怎樣的進展，尤其是原材料類型的限制和供應鏈，我認為已經放大了其中的一些或者正在放鬆，一些補償在混合方面變得有點困難？我們如何看待您今天擁有的商業書籍中的前瞻性貢獻者？

Yes, it's a good question. I think about mix, and I think about a much longer time period and a much longer time horizon. Mix has been part of our algorithm and an important part for almost a decade. And we know that these markets, particularly the consumer staples and the health care markets that we're exposed to are going to grow collectively in the low single-digit range when things normalize. And when I say when things normalize, it means when the consumer adjusts to inflation and when the inventory destocking is completed through the value chain. We're going to have a base amount of growth in the business that's at low single digits.

是的，這是個好問題。我考慮混合，我考慮更長的時間段和更長的時間範圍。近十年來，Mix 一直是我們算法的一部分，也是一個重要的組成部分。我們知道，當一切恢復正常時，這些市場，尤其是我們所接觸的消費必需品和醫療保健市場，將以較低的個位數範圍共同增長。當我說事情正常化時，這意味著當消費者適應通貨膨脹時以及通過價值鏈完成庫存去庫存時。我們的業務將實現低個位數的基本增長。

Then we have certain priority segments and categories that we've been doubling down on and investing disproportionately. And so health care, both medical and pharmaceutical packaging, protein, coffee, pet care. These segments and the packaging intensity in these segments has been growing at higher than general market rates, those are all mix accretive to us.

然後我們有某些優先領域和類別，我們一直在加倍努力並進行不成比例的投資。等等醫療保健，包括醫療和藥品包裝、蛋白質、咖啡、寵物護理。這些細分市場和這些細分市場的包裝強度一直在以高於一般市場的速度增長，這些都對我們有利。

And so if you take a longer-term view, mix has been an important driver of earnings growth for this company for over a decade. We would expect that, that will continue going forward as soon as we get through this short-term -- set of short-term market dynamics that we're facing right now.

因此，如果你從長遠來看，十多年來，組合一直是這家公司盈利增長的重要驅動力。我們預計，一旦我們度過這個短期——我們目前面臨的一系列短期市場動態，這種情況將繼續向前發展。

Your next question comes from the line of John Purtell from Macquarie.

你的下一個問題來自 Macquarie 的 John Purtell。

Just as a follow-up to that, in terms of the price/mix was actually sort of similar, that 4% for the 9 months versus the first half. So within this, price was up, but mix was down. Is that the sort of correct read? And is there any sort of trading down effect in that mix as well? Just to understand that. I know that we've talked to this before, I mean, effectively, you pick up -- if there is some trading down, you pick up some of that volume, but maybe it has a mix effect as well.

作為後續行動，就價格/組合而言實際上有點相似，前 9 個月與上半年相比為 4%。因此，在此範圍內，價格上漲，但組合下降。這樣的讀法對嗎？在這種組合中是否也存在某種交易下降效應？只是為了理解這一點。我知道我們之前已經討論過這個問題，我的意思是，實際上，你會回升——如果有一些交易下降，你會回升一些交易量，但也許它也會產生混合效應。

Yes. So John, I'll start there. And absolutely, we had price benefit in the period, which I touched on earlier. We recovered over $100 million in inflation during the period. I mean the mix -- what we have seen is some unfavorable mix around areas like the protein and premium coffee where we've seen some softness in demand, both from a consumer but also some destocking. So that's impacted mix negatively. On the offset to that, you still had in Q3, reasonable health care performance, albeit lapping a stronger comp.

是的。約翰，我將從這裡開始。當然，我們在此期間有價格優勢，我之前提到過。在此期間，我們收回了超過 1 億美元的通貨膨脹。我的意思是混合——我們看到的是蛋白質和優質咖啡等領域的一些不利組合，我們看到需求有些疲軟，既有來自消費者的需求，也有一些去庫存。因此，這受到了負面影響。與此相反，你在第三季度仍然有合理的醫療保健表現，儘管表現更強勁。

But some mix benefit coming through there. Pet food is another one in the -- in our focus categories where we've seen good growth there, which is driving mix. But as we look forward, I think that was really what we saw in the quarter, a bit of a tale of 2 stories. And then Ron touched on how we will think about things moving forward.

但是那裡會帶來一些混合好處。寵物食品是另一個——在我們的重點類別中，我們在那裡看到了良好的增長，這正在推動混合。但當我們展望未來時，我認為這確實是我們在本季度看到的，有點像兩個故事的故事。然後羅恩談到了我們將如何思考未來的事情。

And just a second one on the cost saves you today -- I think you called out $140 million there. Has that flowed through fully to P&L, so it's in the numbers that we see? Or is there a lagged impact from that?

今天，只要第二個關於成本的問題就可以為你節省——我想你在那裡調出了 1.4 億美元。這是否完全流向了 P&L，所以它是我們看到的數字？還是有滯後的影響？

No. Look, that's flowing through already. That's the year-to-date cost savings that have come out of the business. If you think about the year, we've had pricing to compensate for inflation, and then we've taken cost out to compensate for volume and mix going the other way. And the business through 9 months has grown its EBIT about 4%, roughly $50 million in EBIT growth. And the building blocks are as I just outlined. .

不，看，那已經流過。這是今年迄今從該業務中節省的成本。如果你考慮一下這一年，我們已經通過定價來補償通貨膨脹，然後我們已經扣除成本以補償數量和混合方式。過去 9 個月，該業務的息稅前利潤增長了約 4%，約 5000 萬美元的息稅前利潤增長。構建基塊正如我剛才概述的那樣。 .

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Richard Johnson 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Ron, I just wanted to ask you -- I'll go back to the subject of price. I mean if you look at the last 5 quarters, by far, the biggest contributor to operating profit growth, has been net price realization. I mean given the nature of the industry prices by definition, really cyclical. So I was just wondering how we should think about price over the next few quarters, particularly in a very weak demand environment.

羅恩，我只是想問你——我會回到價格的話題上來。我的意思是，如果你看看過去 5 個季度，到目前為止，營業利潤增長的最大貢獻者是淨價實現。我的意思是，根據行業價格的定義，它確實具有周期性。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮未來幾個季度的價格，尤其是在需求非常疲軟的環境下。

Yes. Look, price in the industry, I think you have to break down into the 2 components that the 2 main components. So the raw material pricing in the industry is certainly cyclical. It ebbs and flows with the commodity cycle. We've come off a period -- well, we believe that we're coming off a period of prolonged raw material increases. As those abate, then the pricing that we need to put into the marketplace to compensate will start to come down.

是的。看，行業價格，我認為你必須分解為 2 個主要組成部分的 2 個組成部分。所以行業內的原材料定價肯定是周期性的。它隨著商品週期潮起潮落。我們已經度過了一段時期——好吧，我們相信我們正在經歷一段長期的原材料增長時期。隨著這些減少，我們需要投入市場進行補償的定價將開始下降。

The other part is pricing just around general inflation. And that's something that the industry hasn't seen in 40 years. We have not seen inflation above the rate of normal productivity growth. And I think our view would be we're pretty pleased with the amount of pricing that we've been able to realize to cover the general inflation, the non-raw material price or cost increases that we've had to wear. It's demonstrated to us that there is pricing power in our value proposition, and we've been able to fully compensate.

另一部分是圍繞一般通貨膨脹定價。這是該行業 40 年來從未見過的事情。我們沒有看到通貨膨脹率高於正常生產率增長率。而且我認為我們的觀點是，我們對我們能夠實現的定價數量感到非常滿意，以涵蓋我們不得不承受的一般通貨膨脹、非原材料價格或成本增加。它向我們證明了我們的價值主張中有定價權，我們已經能夠充分補償。

So I think it remains to be seen where inflation goes from here. Hopefully, there are some positive signs that maybe the rates of increases are slowing. And if that's the case, then our rate of pricing will slow as well.

所以我認為通脹從這裡走向何方還有待觀察。希望有一些積極的跡象表明增長率可能正在放緩。如果真是這樣，那麼我們的定價速度也會放緩。

That's helpful. And then you mentioned premium coffee a few times and certainly commentary from your customers would sort of echo what you're saying. But really, what I wanted to ask about is the market leader at that end of the coffee market seems pretty determined to put in place a more sustainable substrate for their pods. And there is a competitor out there with a product already. I just wanted to try and catch up with where you are with that -- in that regard.

這很有幫助。然後你幾次提到優質咖啡，你的客戶的評論肯定會與你所說的相呼應。但實際上，我想問的是，咖啡市場這一端的市場領導者似乎下定決心要為他們的豆莢提供更可持續的基質。並且已經有一個產品的競爭對手。在這方面，我只是想嘗試了解您的進展情況。

Yes. Look, we believe and we think that the customer would agree that the aluminum capsule is as sustainable as any other alternative out there. It's fully recyclable, and we're making it with recycled aluminum content. And they've -- that customer has invested a lot in the infrastructure to actually make that a fully circular system.

是的。看，我們相信並且我們認為客戶會同意鋁製膠囊與其他任何替代品一樣具有可持續性。它是完全可回收的，我們使用回收的鋁材料製造它。他們已經——那個客戶在基礎設施上投入了大量資金，實際上使它成為一個完全循環的系統。

So we're pretty comfortable with the sustainability credentials of that particular format. But nevertheless, we're active on the fiber side as you would know, with the AmFiber line, and we're making good traction on that side of the business as well. If that's the direction customers want to go, I think we're going to be well equipped to meet them where they are.

因此，我們對這種特定格式的可持續性證書感到非常滿意。但是，儘管如此，正如您所知，我們在光纖方面很活躍，通過 AmFiber 系列，我們也在業務的這一方面取得了良好的發展。如果那是客戶想要去的方向，我認為我們將做好充分準備以滿足他們的需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle White with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kyle White。

I wanted to follow up on that comment earlier regarding the rate of inflation kind of moderating. There's obviously been a lot of news regarding food and beverage elasticity. Are you seeing or expecting any shift from your customers regarding promotional activity or pricing that could start to drive some sequential volume improvement?

我想跟進早些時候關於通貨膨脹率緩和的評論。顯然有很多關於食品和飲料彈性的新聞。您是否看到或期望您的客戶在促銷活動或定價方面發生任何變化，這些變化可能會開始推動一些連續的銷量改進？

I think a couple of things, Kyle. One is we're still out there pricing for inflation. So it's still out there. It's real. Maybe the rates of increase have slowed, but prices or costs are well -- elevated well above where they were a year or 2 years ago for sure.

我想幾件事，凱爾。一是我們仍然在為通貨膨脹定價。所以它仍然在那裡。它是真實的。也許增長率已經放緩，但價格或成本很好——肯定高於一年或兩年前的水平。

So we're still out there recovering. There is a lag. There's always a lag. It's no different to any other cycle around pricing. And there's always a little bit of a time lag as we work through contracts and contracts mature, et cetera, we're resetting at higher prices, but we are recovering.

所以我們還在外面恢復。有滯後。總是有滯後。這與圍繞定價的任何其他週期沒有什麼不同。當我們完成合同和合同成熟時，總會有一點時間滯後，等等，我們正在以更高的價格重置，但我們正在恢復。

I think as far as the residual impact or the impact on demand, there are some examples of shifts. So what we see in the beverage business, in particular, in North America is a shift more towards value packs. We see a lot of smaller containers that go into 12 packs or 24 packs. We see volumes in that side of the business growing much more rapidly than larger sizes. We see channel shifts as well. So we see less sales going through the C-store channel. Gas station sales are way down compared to club stores, et cetera. So you do see some more of a shift -- you do see a bit more of a shift towards value by the consumer.

我認為就剩餘影響或對需求的影響而言，有一些轉變的例子。因此，我們在飲料行業，尤其是在北美看到的是更多地轉向超值包裝。我們看到許多小容器裝在 12 包或 24 包中。我們看到業務的這一方面的數量增長比更大的規模要快得多。我們也看到渠道轉移。所以我們看到通過 C 店渠道的銷售額減少了。與俱樂部商店等相比，加油站的銷售額大幅下降。所以你確實看到了更多的轉變——你確實看到了消費者對價值的更多轉變。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I was just curious, did you experience any headwind or impact from the lag of the pass-through of resin in the quarter on your P&L? And then are you anticipating any impact from this in the fiscal 4Q quarter?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我只是好奇，您是否遇到過本季度樹脂傳遞滯後對您的損益表產生的任何不利影響或影響？那麼您是否預計這會對第四財季產生任何影響？

As I said earlier, the raw material environment in Q3 was relatively benign after some drop in Q1 and modest drop in Q2. So in Q3, we still have a modest benefit in the P&L on the price/cost lag. As we look forward into Q4, as I said earlier, that right now the environment looks relatively benign across what we see across the globe.

正如我之前所說，在第一季度和第二季度小幅下降之後，第三季度的原材料環境相對良好。因此，在第三季度，我們在價格/成本滯後的損益表中仍然有適度的好處。當我們展望第四季度時，正如我之前所說，目前我們在全球範圍內看到的環境看起來相對良性。

So I think the benefit in Q4, if anything, will just be a modest price cost lag benefit similar to Q3. So as you think about the full year, it's really just been -- overall, it would be a relatively modest benefit from the raw material price/cost lag position. As we look into '24, it's too early to tell, we'll wait and see where raw materials go from here.

因此，我認為第四季度的收益（如果有的話）將只是類似於第三季度的適度價格成本滯後收益。因此，當你考慮全年時，它實際上只是 - 總體而言，原材料價格/成本滯後位置帶來的收益相對適度。在我們研究 24 年時，現在下結論還為時過早，我們將拭目以待，看看原材料的去向。

Your next question comes from the line of Jakob Cakarnis from Jarden.

你的下一個問題來自 Jarden 的 Jakob Cakarnis。

Just one for Michael. Just on the free cash flow outlook for fiscal '23 please. Can you just talk through some of the expectations for fourth quarter inventory unwind maybe the go forward as you carry into fiscal '24 and what needs to happen, perhaps to get that unit balance equal out to get back to the free cash flow levels that we're used to with you guys, please?

只給邁克爾一個。請談談 23 財年的自由現金流前景。您能否談談對第四季度庫存解除的一些預期，或者在您進入 24 財年時向前推進以及需要發生什麼，也許是為了使單位餘額相等以回到我們的自由現金流水平習慣和你們在一起，好嗎？

Yes, sure. I can touch on the cash flow. So I mean we -- what we've seen this year is the cash flow is behind prior year. And it's largely on the back of working capital outflows. And particularly in the first half, we were building inventory on the back of supply constraints in the system. We kind of peaked the inventory in November, have started to see that come out of the system. And if you think about the quarter we've just gone, we took about $100 million out of inventory.

是的，當然。我可以談談現金流。所以我的意思是我們 - 我們今年看到的是現金流量落後於去年。這主要是由於營運資金外流。特別是在上半年，我們在系統供應限制的情況下建立了庫存。我們的庫存在 11 月達到了頂峰，已經開始看到系統的出現。如果你想想我們剛剛過去的那個季度，我們從庫存中拿出了大約 1 億美元。

But we didn't get the benefit of that coming through the cash flow in the way that we'd expected because what we're seeing on the back of the lower demand environment and also trying to take inventory out of the system is our payables are much lower than where they were as well. So the payables -- and it's a temporary position we see, the payables are lower than we would normally expect.

但我們並沒有像我們預期的那樣從現金流中獲益，因為我們在較低的需求環境下看到的，以及我們試圖從系統中清除庫存的是我們的應付賬款也遠低於他們的位置。所以應付賬款——這是我們看到的一個臨時職位，應付賬款低於我們通常的預期。

As we continue to take inventory out of the system and also work our way through a softer demand environment. As we look into Q4 and what we've included in the guidance is Q4 is typically our strongest quarter of cash flow seasonally. I mean we do have a seasonal cash flow really on the back of the fact that Q4 is our strongest earnings. We also typically build inventory during the year and then that releases in Q4 as we get into the busy period, particularly in the beverage business. And we also have some favorable commercial terms with our customers and suppliers, which help drive the cash flow. So what we're anticipating for Q4 is that we will continue to see some reduction in inventory. We've probably got another $100 million, $150 million to go to get back to a more normal level.

隨著我們繼續從系統中取出庫存，並在疲軟的需求環境中努力工作。當我們研究第四季度時，我們在指導中包含的內容是，第四季度通常是我們季節性現金流最強勁的季度。我的意思是我們確實有季節性現金流，因為第四季度是我們最強勁的收益。我們通常還會在年內建立庫存，然後在我們進入繁忙時期時在第四季度發布，尤其是在飲料業務方面。我們還與客戶和供應商簽訂了一些有利的商業條款，這有助於推動現金流。因此，我們對第四季度的預期是，我們將繼續看到庫存有所減少。我們可能還有 1 億美元、1.5 億美元用於恢復到更正常的水平。

So we're expecting to see that start -- continue to come through in Q4 and realistically, based on the guidance, deliver the same cash that we delivered last year in Q4, and that was in a period last year where inventories were still increasing. So we feel pretty confident in the guidance range that we've given in that $800 million to $900 million for the full year.

因此，我們期待看到這一開始——在第四季度繼續實現，並且實際上，根據指導意見，交付與去年第四季度交付的現金相同的現金，而那是在去年庫存仍在增加的時期.因此，我們對全年 8 億至 9 億美元的指導範圍充滿信心。

Your next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell-Crawford with Barrenjoey.

你的下一個問題來自 Brook Campbell-Crawford 與 Barrenjoey 的對話。

Can you just talk about the potential EBIT benefit in FY '24 from the investments and acquisitions over, I guess, the financial year-to-date, it's probably close to [$20 million] in spend. So I would have thought that will be a benefit to EBIT, but you didn't call it out earlier on as something to consider in that sort of EBIT bridge into next year?

你能談談 24 財年投資和收購帶來的潛在息稅前利潤嗎，我想，財政年度迄今為止，它可能接近 [2000 萬美元] 的支出。所以我認為這將對 EBIT 有好處，但你沒有早點把它稱為明年的 EBIT 橋樑中需要考慮的事情嗎？

Yes. Look, Brook, we've done really 3 so far, and these are all very small deals. The Moda deal that we announced today is a small one. It's really one with an eye towards the long term. It's a small business with less than 30 people, sales around $20 million. It's not a business that's going to materially change the EBIT trajectory of the business going forward. And similarly, MDK in China is a business that's around $50 million in sales.

是的。看，Brook，到目前為止我們已經完成了 3 個，這些都是非常小的交易。我們今天宣布的 Moda 交易是一筆小交易。這真的是一個著眼於長遠的人。這是一家不到 30 人的小企業，銷售額約為 2000 萬美元。這不是一家會實質性改變企業未來 EBIT 軌蹟的企業。同樣，MDK 在中國的銷售額約為 5000 萬美元。

The plant in Eastern Europe is just that. It's a plant. It's very -- it's running at a very low utilization. And what we're going to do is fill it by moving business from Western Europe into the low-cost hub that we've acquired in Eastern Europe. So all of these are relatively small. They all help incrementally move the ball forward, but none of them are going to have a meaningful impact on FY '24 earnings, which is why I didn't call them out.

東歐的工廠就是這樣。這是一種植物。它非常 - 它以非常低的利用率運行。我們要做的是通過將業務從西歐轉移到我們在東歐收購的低成本中心來填補它。所以所有這些都比較小。它們都有助於逐步推動球向前發展，但它們都不會對 24 財年的收益產生有意義的影響，這就是為什麼我沒有把它們叫出來。

Okay. And can you talk about your European business, volumes down sort of mid-single digit in the March quarter. Your key competitor and #2 player there (inaudible) talked about pretty solid growth actually volumes in the fourth quarter -- or sorry, the March quarter rather? And is there anything you can call out there to expand the gap performance between yourselves and the #2 player there?

好的。你能談談你的歐洲業務嗎？三月份季度的銷量下降了中個位數。您的主要競爭對手和那裡的第二大玩家（聽不清）談到了第四季度實際銷量的穩健增長——或者抱歉，更確切地說是三月季度？你有什麼可以說的來擴大你自己和那裡的#2 玩家之間的差距嗎？

I'm not going to comment on anybody else's performance. I can tell you, from our side, when we look at the market, we assess it through the lens of the scanner data at retail and what our customers are reporting. And we would say that certainly coming through this earnings season, that all stacks up with our performance. It's kind of like right on line with the average of what customers have reported and probably a little bit ahead of the retail scan data, which might suggest that some of the larger customers are taking some share.

我不會評論其他人的表現。我可以從我們這邊告訴你，當我們審視市場時，我們會通過零售掃描儀數據和我們客戶的報告來評估它。我們會說，在這個財報季肯定會到來，這一切都與我們的表現相得益彰。這有點像與客戶報告的平均值一致，可能略高於零售掃描數據，這可能表明一些較大的客戶正在佔據一些份額。

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Reilly with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Nathan Reilly。

Ron, just a question on general cost inflation recovery. Earnings says that Amcor has been very good at recovering general cost inflation with customer price action over the last year or so.

羅恩，只是一個關於一般成本通脹恢復的問題。收益顯示，Amcor 在過去一年左右的時間裡非常擅長通過客戶價格行動來恢復一般成本通脹。

But just given the volume situation you're facing in terms of those declines and customer destocking, I just imagine those conversations with customers on price recovery are getting a little harder. So can I just confirm that you were successful in fully recovering general cost inflation in the third quarter and what you've baked into the fourth quarter guidance?

但考慮到你在這些下降和客戶去庫存方面面臨的數量情況，我只是想與客戶就價格恢復進行的對話變得更加困難。那麼我能否確認你在第三季度成功地完全恢復了一般成本通脹以及你在第四季度的指導中提到了什麼？

Yes. No. As I think I alluded to in response to one of the other questions, if we think about it from a year-to-date perspective or the third quarter, however you want to look at it, we've been fully recovering general cost inflation. And that's about $250 million of price that we've put into the market this year on a roughly equal amount of inflation.

是的。不，正如我在回答其他一個問題時提到的那樣，如果我們從年初至今或第三季度的角度來考慮，無論你想怎麼看，我們都已經完全恢復了成本通脹。這是我們今年在大致相等的通貨膨脹率下投入市場的大約 2.5 億美元的價格。

I wouldn't say it gets harder. I would say that there is always a bit of a lag. If you think about our business, about 70% of it is contracted, 30% not contracted, right? So we're certainly fully caught up with very little lag on the uncontracted portion of the business. On the contracted portion, as we roll contracts as they mature and we renew them, we reset pricing and we also expand the inflation coverage and shorten the time between price adjustments -- that's just a function of the book of business and the customer or the contract book contract portfolio that we have. So there's always contracts that need to be reset, and we'll have several that reset over the next 6 to 12 months.

我不會說它變得更難。我會說總是有一點滯後。你想想我們的業務，大約70%是簽約的，30%是沒有簽約的，對吧？因此，我們肯定完全趕上了未簽約業務部分的滯後。在合同部分，隨著我們在合同到期時滾動合同並續簽合同，我們重新定價，我們還擴大了通貨膨脹覆蓋範圍並縮短了價格調整之間的時間——這只是業務簿和客戶或客戶的功能我們擁有的合同簿合同組合。所以總是有合同需要重新設置，我們將在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內重新設置幾個合同。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

I hope you guys are doing well. Thanks for the details, Ron and Michael. I guess the one question I had relates to the Rigid business. relative both between cold fill and hot fill and then in turn versus other substrates. Ron, why do you think you're seeing weaker performance in cold fill and in preforms relative to hot fill, when the hot fill product would be typically for a higher-end product and one that if the consumer is hunkering down, might be less predisposed to be buying versus traditional soft drinks or water. And then relatedly, your customers are seeing volatile order patterns, we empathize with what you're seeing. Nonetheless, your volumes are weaker, certainly so far in beverage packaging than what we've seen from some of the other substrates, particularly cans. Do you think there's any sort of share shift occurring there? And if not, why not?

我希望你們一切都好。感謝羅恩和邁克爾提供詳細信息。我想我遇到的一個問題與 Rigid 業務有關。冷填充和熱填充之間的相對關係，然後又與其他基材相對。 Ron，為什麼你認為冷灌裝和預製件的性能比熱灌裝更弱，而熱灌裝產品通常用於高端產品，而如果消費者正在購買，可能會更少傾向於購買傳統軟飲料或水。然後相關地，您的客戶看到不穩定的訂單模式，我們對您所看到的表示同情。儘管如此，到目前為止，您在飲料包裝方面的銷量肯定比我們從其他一些基材（尤其是罐頭）上看到的要弱。您認為那裡會發生任何類型的份額轉移嗎？如果不是，為什麼不呢？

I think the starting point is where is the consumer right now at this point in time. And I think there's always been really strong alignment between the package format and the channel and the usage occasion. And if we go back over a long period of time, the PET bottle generally, whether it's cold fill or hot fill, has been predominantly through the cold channel. It's been predominantly single-serve whether it's hot fill or cold fill, soft drinks or sports drinks and the can has tended to be the value pack.

我認為起點是消費者此時此刻在哪裡。而且我認為包裝格式與渠道和使用場合之間始終存在著很強的一致性。如果我們回顧很長一段時間，PET 瓶通常，無論是冷灌裝還是熱灌裝，都主要通過冷通道。無論是熱灌裝還是冷灌裝、軟飲料還是運動飲料，它都以單份為主，而且罐裝往往是超值包裝。

And whenever times are tougher for the consumer and when they're gravitating more towards value and buying things in units of 12 or 24, that tends to be through the warm distribution channel and tends to be through retail, big box retail and conventional retail and not through the convenience channel where most of our products go through. So I do think that -- I wouldn't call it a substrate shift as much as I would just say, it's a consumer thinking with their pocketbook at this point in time and buying things at the lower price point per unit.

每當消費者處境艱難時，當他們更傾向於價值並以 12 或 24 件為單位購買商品時，這往往是通過溫暖的分銷渠道，往往是通過零售、大型零售和傳統零售，以及而不是通過我們大多數產品所經過的便利渠道。所以我確實認為——我不會像我剛才說的那樣稱之為底物轉變，這是消費者此時用他們的錢包思考，並以較低的單位價格購買東西。

We have time for one last question. And the last question comes from Cameron McDonald with E&P.

我們有時間問最後一個問題。最後一個問題來自 E&P 的 Cameron McDonald。

Just wanted to go back to the comments you made about the scanning data. And I was wondering if you could put that in context given your history of volumes? And what do you think that -- where does that fit relative to how bad it could actually be during a recession? And then a separate question for me just around when we talk about seeing channel shifts and more value oriented -- can you talk about what's happening perhaps in some of the confectionery market exposure that you've got as well, please?

只是想回到您對掃描數據所做的評論。我想知道您是否可以根據您的交易量歷史將其放在上下文中？你怎麼看 - 相對於經濟衰退期間實際可能有多糟糕，這在哪里合適？然後，當我們談論看到渠道轉變和更注重價值時，我又問了一個單獨的問題——你能談談你所擁有的一些糖果市場風險中正在發生的事情嗎？

Look, Cameron, I would say that generally, we're going to be reasonably well positioned in a recession because the end market exposure of the business now is as defensive as it's ever been. Basically, all of our sales are going into consumer staples, fast-moving consumer goods or health care.

聽著，卡梅倫，我想說的是，總的來說，我們將在經濟衰退中處於相當有利的位置，因為現在該業務的終端市場風險與以往一樣具有防禦性。基本上，我們所有的銷售都用於消費必需品、快速消費品或醫療保健。

And those through past economic cycles have held up reasonably well. I think we've got a softer consumer environment at the moment at the same time, that we're coming off a number of different dynamics that have led to lots of inventory in the system. And I'm talking about COVID and then the supply chain complexities and constraints that followed. That's got to work itself through.

那些經歷過過去經濟周期的人表現相當不錯。我認為我們目前同時擁有一個更溫和的消費者環境，我們正在擺脫許多導致系統中大量庫存的不同動態。我說的是 COVID，然後是供應鏈的複雜性和隨之而來的限制。這必須自己解決。

I think to the extent there are recessionary conditions in some of our larger markets. I think that we would expect to continue to be well positioned. If I think back to the global financial crisis, which is some time ago now, our volumes were down low single digits through that period, and we were able to hold our earnings. So I feel pretty good about where we're positioned, but we're not sitting around waiting or hoping. I mean that's the point of the cost outs, the cost-out initiatives that we've described today and the pricing actions that we've taken to really make sure that we're not expecting the consumer to return and volume to start to grow more robustly than it has been.

我認為在某種程度上我們的一些較大的市場存在衰退條件。我認為我們希望繼續處於有利地位。如果我回想一下不久前的全球金融危機，那段時間我們的銷量下降了個位數，我們能夠保持盈利。所以我對我們的定位感覺很好，但我們不是坐等或希望。我的意思是，這就是成本支出的重點，我們今天描述的成本支出計劃以及我們採取的定價行動，以真正確保我們不期望消費者回歸和銷量開始增長比以前更強大。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Ron for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給 Ron 以作結束語。

Okay. Thanks, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today and for your interest in Amcor. And with those -- with that, we'll close the call. Thanks.

好的。謝謝接線員，也感謝大家今天加入電話會議以及您對 Amcor 的興趣。有了這些——有了這些，我們將結束通話。謝謝。

This concludes today's Amcor Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 Amcor 2023 年第三季度業績電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。