Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for standing by, and welcome to the Amcor Full Year 2023 Results Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的耐心等待，並歡迎參加 Amcor 2023 年全年業績電話會議。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Tracey Whitehead。請繼續。

Thank you, Mandeep, and thanks, everyone, for joining Amcor's Fiscal '23 Earnings Call. Joining today is Ron Delia, our Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝 Mandeep，也感謝大家參加 Amcor 的 23 財年財報電話會議。今天加入的是我們的首席執行官 Ron Delia；和首席財務官邁克爾·卡薩門托。

Before I hand over, let me note a few items. On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call. Please be aware that we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and related reconciliations can be found in that press release and the presentation.

在我移交之前，讓我記下一些事項。在我們的網站 amcor.com 的投資者部分下，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和演示文稿，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。請注意，我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，相關調節表可在該新聞稿和演示文稿中找到。

Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. Reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statement on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details.

評論還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天演示文稿中的第二張幻燈片列出了可能導致未來結果與當前估計不同的幾個因素。如需了解更多詳情，請參閱 Amcor 的 SEC 文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表上的聲明。

(Operator Instructions) Over to you, Ron.

（操作員指示）交給你了，羅恩。

Thanks, Tracey, and thanks, everyone, for joining, Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's fiscal 2023 and June quarter results. We'll begin with some prepared remarks, starting as we always do with safety on Slide 3.

謝謝特雷西，也感謝大家今天與邁克爾和我一起討論 Amcor 的 2023 財年和 6 月季度業績。我們將從一些準備好的評論開始，就像我們在幻燈片 3 上一貫的安全做法一樣。

Safety is our most important value at Amcor, and throughout fiscal 2023, we again made strong progress on our journey for continuous safety improvement across the company. 69% of our sites remained injury free for at least 12 months, and we reduced injuries globally by 31%. While we're pleased with these results, ultimately, it's not just the number of injuries we're focused on but also the severity of the injuries that do occur. Tragically, in June, a contractor's employee lost his life at our Pondicherry site in India after falling from a roof.

安全是 Amcor 最重要的價值，在整個 2023 財年，我們在整個公司持續安全改進的道路上再次取得了重大進展。我們 69% 的工廠在至少 12 個月內保持無傷害狀態，並且我們將全球傷害減少了 31%。雖然我們對這些結果感到滿意，但最終，我們關注的不僅僅是受傷的數量，還有確實發生的受傷的嚴重程度。不幸的是，六月，一名承包商的員工在我們位於印度本地治裡的工廠從屋頂墜落身亡。

We immediately conducted a detailed investigation, and we're deploying the learnings across all Amcor sites with the goal of eliminating the risk of similar accidents in the future. We are relentlessly focused on safety globally, and this tragic incident is a stark reminder of the importance of those efforts.

我們立即進行了詳細調查，並將所學到的知識部署到所有 Amcor 工廠，目標是消除未來發生類似事故的風險。我們不懈地關注全球安全，這一悲慘事件清楚地提醒我們這些努力的重要性。

Moving to our key messages on Slide 4. First, Amcor delivered solid operating performance for the 2023 fiscal year. Adjusted EBIT was up 1%, and we returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and our industry-leading dividend. Across the organization, our teams demonstrated agility by taking action to navigate highly challenging and volatile market dynamics characterized by ongoing inflation, softening consumer demand and customer destocking, particularly in the second half of the fiscal year.

轉到幻燈片 4 上的關鍵信息。首先，Amcor 在 2023 財年實現了穩健的運營業績。調整後息稅前利潤增長 1%，我們通過股票回購和行業領先的股息向股東返還 12 億美元。在整個組織中，我們的團隊通過採取行動應對極具挑戰性和波動性的市場動態（以持續通脹、消費者需求疲軟和客戶去庫存為特徵，特別是在本財年下半年），展現了敏捷性。

Our ability to modestly grow adjusted EBIT under these circumstances was the result of proactive and decisive actions to effectively manage the areas under our control, which is our second key message. Our teams did an excellent job prioritizing pricing to recover increases in raw materials and general inflation. And as we entered the 2023 calendar year, we stepped up the intensity of our cost reduction efforts to drive productivity benefits. Additionally, we invested in structural initiatives, including strategic plant closures that will deliver meaningful cost savings in fiscal '24 and '25.

在這種情況下，我們能夠適度增長調整後的息稅前利潤，這是我們採取積極果斷行動，有效管理我們控制範圍內的結果，這是我們的第二個關鍵信息。我們的團隊在優先考慮定價以恢復原材料增長和總體通脹方面做得非常出色。隨著進入 2023 年，我們加大了成本削減力度，以提高生產力。此外，我們還投資了結構性舉措，包括戰略性工廠關閉，這將在 24 財年和 25 財年實現有意義的成本節約。

Third, as a result of these comprehensive actions, Amcor is well positioned to return to solid mid-single-digit earnings growth in the second half of fiscal '24, which also leaves us well placed to grow at our long-term trend of high single-digit rates thereafter. While we expect current market conditions to persist over the near term for the entire industry, we'll continue to recover inflation and are confident the benefits from our cost reduction and productivity initiatives will have a sustainable positive impact on earnings leverage.

第三，由於採取了這些全面行動，Amcor 已做好充分準備，將在 24 財年下半年恢復穩定的中個位數盈利增長，這也使我們有能力按照高增長的長期趨勢實現增長。此後的利率為個位數。雖然我們預計整個行業當前的市場狀況將在短期內持續存在，但我們將繼續恢復通脹，並相信我們的成本削減和生產力舉措所帶來的好處將對盈利槓桿產生可持續的積極影響。

Additionally, we'll be cycling weaker volume comparatives in the second half and the headwinds we faced from the sale of our Russian plants and significantly higher interest expense are largely limited to the first half of fiscal '24. All these known benefits are largely within our control and underpin our expectation of a return to solid earnings growth in the second half without having to rely on a significant change in the demand environment. And finally, as we and the entire CPG industry continue to navigate a dynamic operating environment, Amcor remains laser focused on executing against our long-term growth and value creation strategy.

此外，下半年我們的銷量將比較疲弱，而我們因出售俄羅斯工廠而面臨的阻力以及利息支出的大幅上昇在很大程度上僅限於 24 財年上半年。所有這些已知的好處在很大程度上都在我們的控制範圍內，並支撐了我們對下半年盈利恢復穩健增長的預期，而無需依賴需求環境的重大變化。最後，隨著我們和整個 CPG 行業繼續在充滿活力的運營環境中前行，Amcor 仍然專注於執行我們的長期增長和價值創造戰略。

We're well positioned as a recognized industry leader, and we continue to pursue opportunities to invest in our strong underlying business, particularly through innovation and sustainability initiatives in faster-growing, higher-value markets. We're also actively pursuing value-creating M&A, such as the deal announced last week to acquire Phoenix Flexible Packaging in the high-growth Indian market, and we're committed to returning cash to shareholders through a compelling and growing dividend and share repurchases.

作為公認的行業領導者，我們處於有利地位，我們將繼續尋求機會投資於我們強大的基礎業務，特別是通過在增長更快、價值更高的市場中實施創新和可持續發展舉措。我們還積極尋求創造價值的併購，例如上周宣布的在高增長的印度市場收購鳳凰軟包裝的交易，我們致力於通過引人注目且不斷增長的股息和股票回購向股東返還現金。

Moving to Slide 5 for a summary of our financial results. Fiscal '23 and June quarter financial performance was well within our May guidance range as proactive cost and price actions helped counter ongoing inflation and increasingly soft and more volatile volumes as we progress through the year. Reported net sales for the year were up 1%, which includes an unfavorable currency impact of 3% and approximately $775 million of pricing to recover higher raw material costs. Organic sales were flat on a comparable constant currency basis as volumes were 3% lower, offsetting a price/mix benefit of around 3%.

請轉到幻燈片 5，了解我們的財務業績摘要。 23 財年和6 月季度的財務業績完全在我們5 月的指導範圍之內，因為積極的成本和價格行動有助於應對持續的通貨膨脹以及隨著全年進展而日益疲軟和波動的交易量。報告的本年度淨銷售額增長了 1%，其中包括 3% 的不利貨幣影響以及約 7.75 億美元的定價以彌補較高的原材料成本。按可比較的固定匯率計算，有機銷售額持平，銷量下降 3%，抵消了約 3% 的價格/組合效益。

Full year adjusted EBIT of $1.6 billion was up 1% on a comparable constant currency basis, benefiting from strong operating leverage in the first half of the year and accelerated cost actions in the second half. Adjusted EPS of USD 0.733 per share was down 2% on a comparable constant currency basis.

全年調整後息稅前利潤為 16 億美元，按可比固定匯率計算增長 1%，受益於上半年強勁的運營槓桿和下半年加速的成本行動。調整後每股收益 0.733 美元，按可比固定匯率計算下降 2%。

For the June quarter, sales were down 5%. Positive price and mix of approximately 2% included recovery of $100 million of general inflation, and volumes were at the lower end of our expected range, down 7%. Last quarter, we referenced accelerated demand weakness in March and April, and this persisted broadly through the June quarter due to a combination of lower consumer demand and continued customer destocking including in priority categories, which also impacted mix compared with last year. While earnings were in line with our guidance, the June quarter is historically Amcor's strongest of the year, making it more difficult to flex costs. As a result, weaker volumes had a more pronounced impact on earnings and adjusted EBITDA of $436 million was 7% lower than the prior year on a comparable basis.

六月季度的銷售額下降了 5%。正價格和大約 2% 的組合包括恢復 1 億美元的總體通脹，成交量處於我們預期範圍的下限，下降 7%。上個季度，我們提到3 月和4 月需求加速疲軟，這種情況在整個6 月季度普遍持續，原因是消費者需求下降以及客戶持續去庫存（包括優先類別），這也影響了與去年相比的組合。雖然盈利符合我們的指引，但從歷史上看，六月季度是 Amcor 一年中最強勁的季度，這使得調整成本變得更加困難。因此，銷量下降對盈利產生了更明顯的影響，調整後 EBITDA 為 4.36 億美元，比上年可比下降 7%。

We continue to execute well on our capital allocation priorities, returning approximately $1.2 billion of cash to shareholders during the year through a combination of dividends, which the Board increased to $0.49 per share and the repurchase of approximately 41 million shares or 3% of shares outstanding for a total cost of $431 million. Since 2020, we've repurchased approximately 11% of our outstanding shares, and our industry-leading dividend currently yields around 5%. Our overall financial profile also remains robust with return on average funds employed of 15.4%.

我們繼續良好地執行我們的資本配置優先事項，年內通過股息組合向股東返還約 12 億美元現金，董事會將股息增加至每股 0.49 美元，並回購約 4100 萬股或已發行股票的 3%總成本為4.31 億美元。自 2020 年以來，我們回購了約 11% 的流通股，目前行業領先的股息收益率約為 5%。我們的整體財務狀況也保持強勁，平均所用資金回報率為 15.4%。

Slide 6 highlights the proactive actions we continue to take to manage the areas under our control. We've been successful in pricing for inflation throughout the year, passing through a total of $1.1 billion to compensate for higher raw materials and general inflation, including labor, energy and freight. We also delivered more than $200 million in annual cost savings through productivity initiatives including a reduction of more than 1,200 full-time employees. And we're investing in structural initiatives that will deliver approximately $35 million in savings, primarily in the second half of fiscal '24, with an incremental $15 million benefit in fiscal '25. And importantly, we expect the benefits from these fiscal '23 cost actions and structural initiatives to have an ongoing favorable impact on earnings leverage.

幻燈片 6 重點介紹了我們為管理我們控制下的領域而繼續採取的積極行動。我們在全年的通脹定價方面取得了成功，總共花費了 11 億美元來補償原材料上漲和總體通脹（包括勞動力、能源和貨運）。我們還通過生產力舉措（包括裁減 1,200 多名全職員工），每年節省了超過 2 億美元的成本。我們正在投資結構性舉措，主要在 24 財年下半年實現約 3500 萬美元的節省，並在 25 財年增加 1500 萬美元的效益。重要的是，我們預計這些 23 財年成本行動和結構性舉措所帶來的好處將對盈利槓桿產生持續的有利影響。

I'll turn it over now to Michael to cover more of the financials.

我現在將其交給邁克爾，以涵蓋更多財務信息。

Thanks, Ron, and hi, everyone. Beginning with the Flexibles segment on Slide 7. Fiscal '23 reported sales were in line with last year, which included recovery of higher raw material costs of approximately $515 million, accounting for 5% sales growth. Excluding the raw material impact and negative currency movements, sales grew 1% for the year, driven by price/mix benefits of 4%, reflecting our ability to continue to price to recover inflation across all Flexibles business groups. This was partly offset by 3% lower volumes.

謝謝羅恩，大家好。從幻燈片 7 上的軟包裝部分開始。23 財年報告的銷售額與去年一致，其中包括約 5.15 億美元的較高原材料成本回收，佔銷售額增長的 5%。排除原材料影響和不利的貨幣波動，在 4% 的價格/組合效益的推動下，今年銷售額增長了 1%，這反映出我們有能力繼續定價以恢復所有軟包裝業務部門的通脹。這被銷量下降 3% 部分抵消。

And while volumes in all regions were impacted by slower demand and destocking, particularly in the second half of the year, our strategic focus on higher-value priority categories continue to drive solid sales growth for the year. Volumes in the pharmaceutical and pet care categories were especially strong, helping to limit the impact of broad-based lower volumes in other categories. As Ron mentioned, throughout the year, the business did a good job aligning operating costs with challenging market conditions, while pricing to recover inflation. This focus resulted in a 1% increase in adjusted EBIT for the year on a comparable constant currency basis. Margins remained strong at 12.8% despite 100 basis point dilution related to increased sales dollars from passing through higher raw material costs and general inflation.

儘管所有地區的銷量都受到需求放緩和去庫存的影響，特別是在今年下半年，但我們對高價值優先類別的戰略重點繼續推動今年的銷售穩健增長。藥品和寵物護理類別的銷量尤其強勁，有助於限制其他類別銷量普遍下降的影響。正如羅恩提到的，全年該業務在調整運營成本與充滿挑戰的市場條件方面做得很好，同時定價以恢復通貨膨脹。這一重點導致本年度調整後息稅前利潤（按可比固定匯率計算）增長了 1%。儘管由於原材料成本上升和總體通脹導致銷售額增加，利潤率被稀釋了 100 個基點，但仍保持在 12.8% 的強勁水平。

In terms of the fourth quarter, net sales on a comparable constant currency basis were down 5% with positive price/mix of 2% more than offset by a 7% decline in volumes. This represents an accelerated volume decline compared with the March quarter and was consistent trend across most regions. The greatest sequential declines continue to be seen in the North America and European markets. Our overall June quarter volumes were lower by high single digits, consistent with softer retail scanner data and with categories such as premium coffee, protein and health care also being incrementally impacted by customer destocking. Adjusted EBIT for the quarter of $387 million was 7% lower than the prior year on a comparable constant currency basis, reflecting the impact of lower volumes, unfavorable mix and ongoing inflation partly offset by benefits from continued pricing and cost actions.

就第四季度而言，按可比固定匯率計算的淨銷售額下降了 5%，其中 2% 的正價格/組合被銷量下降 7% 所抵消。與三月份季度相比，這表明成交量加速下降，並且在大多數地區都是一致的趨勢。北美和歐洲市場繼續出現最大的連續跌幅。我們六月份季度的整體銷量下降了高個位數，這與疲軟的零售掃描數據一致，而且優質咖啡、蛋白質和醫療保健等類別也受到客戶去庫存的逐步影響。按可比固定匯率計算，本季度調整後息稅前利潤為3.87 億美元，比上年同期下降7%，反映出銷量下降、不利結構和持續通脹的影響，但部分被持續定價和成本行動帶來的收益所抵消。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 8. Fiscal '23 reported net sales were 4% higher than the same period last year, including approximately $260 million or 8% of sales related to the pass-through of higher raw material costs.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的剛性包裝。23 財年報告淨銷售額比去年同期高 4%，其中約 2.6 億美元或 8% 的銷售額與原材料成本上漲的轉嫁相關。

Organic sales declined 3%, reflecting 4% lower volumes, partly offset by a price/mix benefit of 1%. In North America, overall beverage volumes for the year were down 6%. Hot fill volumes were in line with the prior year as new business wins in key categories offset unfavorable consumer demand and customer destocking.

有機銷售額下降 3%，反映出銷量下降 4%，但部分被 1% 的價格/組合效益所抵消。在北美，全年飲料總量下降了 6%。熱灌裝量與上年持平，因為關鍵類別的新業務勝利抵消了不利的消費者需求和客戶去庫存。

In specialty containers, volumes were lower than last year, with growth in the health care, dairy and nutrition categories offset by weaker volumes in food, home and personal care. And in Latin America, volumes were down low single digits versus last year, which reflects challenging macroeconomic conditions across the region.

在特種容器方面，銷量低於去年，醫療保健、乳製品和營養類別的增長被食品、家庭和個人護理品類銷量的疲軟所抵消。在拉丁美洲，銷量較去年下降了低個位數，這反映出該地區宏觀經濟形勢充滿挑戰。

Fiscal '23 adjusted EBIT was down 7%, and strong earnings growth in the first half was more than offset by challenging market conditions that accelerated through the second half of the year. Adjusted EBIT margin of 7.5% includes an adverse impact of approximately 80 basis points from the increased sales dollars related to passing through higher raw material costs and general inflation.

23 財年調整後息稅前利潤下降 7%，上半年強勁的盈利增長被下半年加速的充滿挑戰的市場環境所抵消。調整後息稅前利潤率為 7.5%，其中包括因原材料成本上漲和總體通脹導致銷售額增加帶來的約 80 個基點的不利影響。

Looking at the June quarter. Comparable constant currency net sales were down 4%. Price/mix benefits of 2% were more than offset by a 6% volume decline as lower consumer demand and customer destocking continued to impact the business, particularly in North America. On a comparable currency basis, adjusted EBIT for the quarter of $73 million was down $22 million against the strong comparative period. As Ron mentioned earlier, the June quarter is typically the seasonally strongest of the year, and together with volatility in customer order patterns, this limits the ability to fully flex costs. In an environment where production volumes are weaker, fixed cost absorption is also significantly lower, and the combination of these factors amplifies the impact on earnings.

看看六月季度。按固定匯率計算，淨銷售額下降 4%。由於消費者需求下降和客戶去庫存繼續影響業務，特別是在北美，銷量下降 6% 抵消了 2% 的價格/組合效益。按可比貨幣計算，本季度調整後息稅前利潤為 7300 萬美元，與同期相比下降了 2200 萬美元。正如羅恩之前提到的，六月季度通常是一年中季節性最強的季度，加上客戶訂單模式的波動，這限制了充分彈性成本的能力。在產量疲軟的環境下，固定成本吸收也顯著降低，這些因素的結合放大了對盈利的影響。

The team continued to manage the cost under their control well with additional head count reduction as in more plant shutdown days. And we continue to focus on cost actions as we manage through this cycle of softer demand and destocking. Looking ahead to the September quarter, we do not anticipate market challenges to materially improve, which will have an unfavorable impact on earnings compared with the same quarter last year.

該團隊繼續在他們的控制下管理成本，並隨著工廠停工天數的增加而進一步減少人員數量。在應對需求疲軟和去庫存的周期時，我們將繼續關注成本行動。展望9月季度，我們預計市場挑戰不會出現實質性改善，這將對盈利與去年同期相比產生不利影響。

Moving to cash on the balance sheet on Slide 9. Our financial profile and investment-grade balance sheet remains strong. Leverage of 3x on a trailing 12-month EBITDA basis is modestly up from last year but is aligned with our expectations given the softer demand and broad-based destocking through the supply chain.

幻燈片 9 中的資產負債表轉向現金。我們的財務狀況和投資級資產負債表仍然強勁。過去 12 個月 EBITDA 的槓桿率為 3 倍，較去年略有上升，但鑑於需求疲軟和供應鏈廣泛去庫存，符合我們的預期。

Adjusted free cash flow of $848 million was in line with our updated outlook now below last year. This reduction mostly reflects lower accounts payable balances as we moderated our purchasing activities partly to reduce inventories but also in response to the soft demand environment. This is a timing impact, which we expect will abate as we progress through fiscal '24. And whilst we have made good progress bringing down our inventory balances with a reduction of more than $400 million from the peak levels in November 22, we will continue to focus on reducing overall working capital to support increasing cash flow.

調整後的自由現金流為 8.48 億美元，與我們目前低於去年的最新展望一致。這一減少主要反映了應付賬款餘額的減少，因為我們減少了採購活動，部分原因是為了減少庫存，同時也是為了應對疲軟的需求環境。這是一個時間影響，我們預計隨著 24 財年的進展，這種影響將會減弱。雖然我們在降低庫存餘額方面取得了良好進展，比 11 月 22 日的峰值水平減少了 4 億多美元，但我們將繼續專注於減少總體營運資金，以支持不斷增加的現金流。

Turning now to the outlook for fiscal 2024 on Slide 10. For the '24 fiscal year, we expect adjusted EPS of approximately $0.67 to $0.71 per share. This includes expectations that organic growth from the underlying business will be in the plus or minus low single-digit range as volumes are expected to remain weak particularly in the first half. Share repurchases will result in a benefit of approximately 2%, and currency translation is expected to add a further benefit of 2%, assuming current exchange rates prevail for the balance of the fiscal year. This is expected to be offset by a negative impact of approximately 3% related to the sale of our 3 plants in Russia in December 2022 and a negative impact of approximately 6% from higher interest and tax expense.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的 2024 財年展望。對於 24 財年，我們預計調整後每股收益約為 0.67 美元至 0.71 美元。這包括預計基礎業務的有機增長將在正負低個位數範圍內，因為預計銷量將保持疲弱，特別是在上半年。假設本財年剩餘時間採用當前匯率，股票回購將帶來約 2% 的收益，貨幣換算預計將進一步增加 2% 的收益。預計這將被 2022 年 12 月出售我們在俄羅斯的 3 家工廠相關的約 3% 的負面影響以及利息和稅收費用增加帶來的約 6% 的負面影響所抵消。

As U.S. dollar renewal interest rates have continued to rise, we expect interest expense for fiscal '24 to be in the range of $320 million to $340 million. In terms of cash flow, we expect to generate significant adjusted free cash flow in the range of $850 million to $950 million in fiscal '24, which represents growth of up to $100 million over fiscal 2023.

由於美元續約利率持續上升，我們預計 24 財年的利息支出將在 3.2 億至 3.4 億美元之間。在現金流方面，我們預計 24 財年將產生 8.5 億至 9.5 億美元的大幅調整後自由現金流，這意味著比 2023 財年增長高達 1 億美元。

We have planned to repurchase at least $70 million of Amcor shares in '24, and we have been active on the acquisition front, and we'll continue to pursue M&A opportunities. And as always, we'll evaluate our uses of cash as we progress through the year.

我們計劃在 2024 年回購至少 7000 萬美元的 Amcor 股票，我們在收購方面一直很活躍，我們將繼續尋求併購機會。與往常一樣，我們將隨著這一年的進展評估我們的現金使用情況。

Slide 11 shows that Amcor has a long history of delivering solid and consistent earnings growth, and the phasing of the earnings across the year has also been relatively consistent year-to-year. For fiscal '24, it's important to call out that phasing of comparable earnings growth is not expected to align with historical trends. We do not expect the challenging market dynamics we've seen in the last 2 quarters to meaningfully improve in the near term, and in the first half, we assume mid- to high single-digit volume declines. Given this demand outlook and the unfavorable impact related to higher interest expense, which is expected to moderate in the second half, we anticipate adjusted EPS in the first half of fiscal '24 to be down in the high single-digit to low double-digit range on a comparable constant currency basis when compared to the prior year.

幻燈片 11 顯示，Amcor 長期以來一直致力於實現穩健且持續的盈利增長，而且全年盈利的階段性也與上年相對一致。對於 24 財年，重要的是要指出，可比盈利增長的階段預計不會與歷史趨勢保持一致。我們預計過去兩個季度充滿挑戰的市場動態不會在短期內顯著改善，並且在上半年，我們預計成交量將出現中高個位數下降。鑑於這種需求前景以及與較高利息支出相關的不利影響（預計下半年將有所緩解），我們預計 24 財年上半年調整後每股收益將下降至高個位數至低兩位數與上一年相比，按可比較的固定匯率計算的範圍。

While it's more difficult to predict consumer demand, we do expect customer inventories will have largely normalized by the time we enter the second half of the fiscal year. Additionally, we have a number of tailwinds in the second half, all of which are within our control, including the benefit of approximately $35 million from structural cost saving initiatives building through the year, increased earnings leverage resulting from ongoing benefits from price and cost actions, a reduced interest headwind, and favorable prior year volume comparatives. The combination of these known factors supports our expectation that adjusted EPS rose mid-single digits in the second half of fiscal '24 on a comparable constant currency basis. It also gives us confidence in resuming our long-term trend of high single-digit earnings growth shortly thereafter. It's also important to highlight here that we do not need to see a significant change in the demand environment to return to solid earnings growth in the second half and beyond.

雖然預測消費者需求更加困難，但我們確實預計，到進入本財年下半年時，客戶庫存將基本正常化。此外，下半年我們還有許多有利因素，所有這些都在我們的控制範圍內，包括全年建立的結構性成本節約計劃帶來的約3500 萬美元的收益，價格和成本行動的持續收益帶來的收益槓桿增加，利息阻力減少，以及與去年相比有利的交易量。這些已知因素的結合支持了我們的預期，即在可比較的固定匯率基礎上，調整後的每股收益在 24 財年下半年增長了中個位數。這也讓我們有信心在此後不久恢復高單位數盈利增長的長期趨勢。在此還需要強調的是，我們不需要看到需求環境發生重大變化即可在下半年及以後恢復穩健的盈利增長。

So in summary, we believe the current industry and Amcor specific challenges will primarily be limited to the 2023 calendar year. We remain laser focused on doing all we can to mitigate the impacts of these challenging conditions while continuing to execute our long-term shareholder value creation strategy. And we expect to return to our historic high single-digit organic growth trajectory as we progress through calendar year 2024.

總而言之，我們認為當前行業和 Amcor 的具體挑戰將主要限於 2023 年。我們仍然專注於盡一切努力減輕這些具有挑戰性的條件的影響，同時繼續執行我們的長期股東價值創造戰略。隨著 2024 年的進展，我們預計將恢復歷史性的高個位數有機增長軌跡。

So with that, I'll turn the call back to Ron to provide some longer-term comments.

因此，我會將電話轉回給羅恩，以提供一些長期評論。

Thanks, Michael. Turning to our long-term commentary. Slide 12 highlights our strategic areas for investment where we see faster-growing, higher-value opportunities to drive sustainable growth. On prior calls, we've covered opportunities in health care and in M&A, and today, I'll take a few minutes to talk about protein and the opportunities we see to deliver strong growth in the high-value protein category.

謝謝，邁克爾。轉向我們的長期評論。幻燈片 12 重點介紹了我們的戰略投資領域，我們在這些領域看到了增長更快、價值更高的機會，可以推動可持續增長。在之前的電話會議中，我們討論了醫療保健和併購領域的機會，今天，我將花幾分鐘時間討論蛋白質以及我們看到的在高價值蛋白質類別中實現強勁增長的機會。

Moving to Slide 13. The protein category for Amcor includes packaging solutions for processed and fresh beef, pork, poultry and seafood. And we like this category because it's a large addressable market, which historically has grown globally at attractive rates, driven mainly by an increasing percentage of the world's population able to afford to add protein to their diet. We also like the fact that there are many ways to differentiate and add value for customers since protein packaging requires specialized, more sophisticated and increasingly more sustainable solutions to preserve and protect these premium products.

轉到幻燈片 13。Amcor 的蛋白質類別包括加工和新鮮牛肉、豬肉、家禽和海鮮的包裝解決方案。我們喜歡這個類別，因為它是一個巨大的潛在市場，歷史上它在全球範圍內以有吸引力的速度增長，主要是由於世界上有能力在飲食中添加蛋白質的人口比例不斷增加。我們還喜歡這樣一個事實，即有很多方法可以為客戶提供差異化​​和增值服務，因為蛋白質包裝需要專門、更複雜和越來越可持續的解決方案來保存和保護這些優質產品。

Amcor's unique product offerings have enabled us to successfully grow our participation in the meat category over several years. Annual revenue from the sale of processed and fresh meat packaging now exceeds $1 billion. While inflationary impacts are currently creating challenging market conditions, looking forward, there are several reasons we believe Amcor can drive growth at a mid-single-digit CAGR over the medium term with margins accretive to our overall average.

Amcor 獨特的產品使我們能夠在幾年內成功擴大在肉類領域的參與度。加工肉和鮮肉包裝的年銷售收入現已超過 10 億美元。雖然通脹影響目前正在創造充滿挑戰的市場條件，但展望未來，我們有幾個理由相信Amcor 可以在中期內以中個位數的複合年增長率推動增長，同時利潤率將提高到我們的整體平均水平。

First, Amcor is well positioned with a comprehensive product portfolio for processed and fresh meat applications, underpinning our development of better products, our strong capabilities and significant investments in innovation, sustainability and technical service. These are critical in an industry that relies on durable, high barrier solutions to preserve shelf life while providing convenience for the consumer in environmentally friendly formats.

首先，Amcor 擁有面向加工和鮮肉應用的全面產品組合，支撐著我們開發更好的產品、強大的能力以及在創新、可持續發展和技術服務方面的大量投資。對於依賴耐用、高阻隔解決方案來保持保質期，同時以環保形式為消費者提供便利的行業來說，這些至關重要。

Second, we have a strong presence in North America, but our global scale and reach enables us to leverage our R&D network and installed capacity to transfer technical and process knowledge across regions as we actively pursue global growth opportunities.

其次，我們在北美擁有強大的影響力，但我們的全球規模和影響力使我們能夠在積極尋求全球增長機會的同時，利用我們的研發網絡和裝機能力跨地區轉移技術和工藝知識。

And third, there's a unique go-to-market model in some parts of the world where equipment purchases drive the subsequent sales of packaging films and technical services. Our recent acquisition of Moda positions us well because we're now able to provide a wholly owned turnkey equipment solution aligned with this model, where efficiency and the ability to automate are some of the highest priorities for customers. With the recent investments to enhance our offering and go-to-market strategy, we're well positioned to grow in this high-value market, and we're excited with the many opportunities to firmly establish Amcor as a preferred provider of fresh and processed meat packaging solutions globally.

第三，世界某些地區存在獨特的進入市場模式，設備採購推動了包裝薄膜和技術服務的後續銷售。我們最近收購 Moda 使我們處於有利地位，因為我們現在能夠提供符合此模式的全資交鑰匙設備解決方案，其中效率和自動化能力是客戶的最高優先級。通過最近為增強我們的產品和進入市場戰略而進行的投資，我們已做好在這個高價值市場中發展的有利條件，並且我們很高興有許多機會將Amcor 牢固地確立為新鮮和新鮮食品的首選供應商。全球加工肉類包裝解決方案。

I just want to spend a minute on sustainability on Slide 14. We continue to make excellent progress supporting the development of circular systems through the 3 pillars of our responsible packaging strategy: package design, waste management infrastructure and consumer participation. And we've made significant advances -- advancements on the innovation and design front by developing more sustainable packaging solutions and increasing our use of recycled materials. We'll provide a more detailed update in our sustainability report, which is expected to be published in October.

我只想在幻燈片14 上花一點時間討論可持續發展。我們通過負責任的包裝戰略的三大支柱：包裝設計、廢物管理基礎設施和消費者參與，繼續在支持循環系統的發展方面取得出色進展。我們已經取得了重大進展——通過開發更可持續的包裝解決方案和增加回收材料的使用，在創新和設計方面取得了進步。我們將在可持續發展報告中提供更詳細的更新，預計將於 10 月發布。

And we've continued to collaborate with other industry leaders in various ways across the value chain to help support the development of the infrastructure required for a circular economy. For example, in May, Amcor, Delterra, P&G and Mars formed a strategic partnership to help reduce plastic waste in the Global South by providing access to waste management and recycling systems and by enhancing consumer education.

我們繼續在整個價值鏈上以各種方式與其他行業領導者合作，幫助支持循環經濟所需的基礎設施的發展。例如，今年 5 月，Amcor、Delterra、寶潔和瑪氏建立了戰略合作夥伴關係，通過提供廢物管理和回收系統以及加強消費者教育來幫助減少南半球的塑料廢物。

We're also partnering with Licella and Mondelez to help promote a circular economy by bringing onstream one of Australia's first chemical recycling facilities. This is an exciting development in a market where Amcor's portfolio of recycle-ready flexible packaging solutions is already well above 90% and will provide local access to food-grade recycled material.

我們還與 Licella 和 Mondelez 合作，通過啟用澳大利亞第一個化學回收設施之一來幫助促進循環經濟。在市場上，這是一項令人興奮的發展，Amcor 的可回收軟包裝解決方案組合已遠高於 90%，並將為當地提供食品級回收材料。

So closing on Slide 15, our teams are doing a good job navigating challenging industry dynamics by continuing to recover inflation and proactively taking actions to align costs with market conditions. We're confident in our long-term growth strategy. We have good visibility to factors well within our control that will see us returning to earnings growth aligned with our historic performance and our shareholder value creation model.

因此，在幻燈片 15 結束時，我們的團隊通過繼續恢復通脹並積極採取行動使成本與市場條件保持一致，在應對充滿挑戰的行業動態方面做得很好。我們對我們的長期增長戰略充滿信心。我們對我們控制範圍內的因素有很好的了解，這些因素將使我們恢復與我們的歷史業績和股東價值創造模式相一致的盈利增長。

And operator, with those opening comments, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

接線員，通過這些開場評論，我們現在準備好開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

You mentioned that volumes for the first half of fiscal year '24 will be down mid- to high single digits on a year-over-year basis. I think Michael mentioned that. But what are you assuming at this point for fiscal year '24 in context of the 3% decline that you reported in fiscal year '23?

您提到 24 財年上半年的銷量將同比下降中高個位數。我想邁克爾提到過這一點。但是，鑑於您在 23 財年報告的下降 3% 的情況，您目前對 24 財年有何假設？

Yes. So look, we're setting the business up to assume that the current market conditions essentially continue through the first half, so we're expecting first half to look a bit like the fourth quarter with volumes down mid- to high single digits. That's continued softening of demand and continued destocking pretty broadly across the geographies and segments that we participate in. But the second half, we're expecting more normal rates of volumes, more like flat to up single -- low single digits.

是的。因此，我們對業務的設定是假設當前的市場狀況基本上會持續到上半年，因此我們預計上半年的情況會有點像第四季度，銷量會出現中高個位數的下降。這是需求的持續疲軟以及我們參與的各個地區和細分市場的持續去庫存。但下半年，我們預計銷量將更加正常，更像是持平到上升個位數——低個位數。

And that's really -- just assumes no more destocking and the fact that we'll be cycling easier comps. So we're not baking in any big improvement in demand. And so all up, that would see volumes for the full year down sort of flat to down mid-single digits. That's the sort of midpoint of our guidance range, would see us down kind of low single digits for the full 12 months.

這確實是——只是假設不再去庫存，並且事實上我們將循環更容易的補償。因此，我們不會推動需求出現任何重大改善。綜上所述，全年銷量將持平至中個位數下降。這是我們指導範圍的中點，將導致我們在整個 12 個月內出現低個位數的下滑。

Got it. That's helpful. And then in terms of the destocking, maybe you can just give us some insight as to the micro nuances between the major regions you have exposure to. And the categories that first started to see destocking, are you starting to see any sort of green shoots if you will?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，在去庫存方面，也許您可​​以向我們介紹一下您所涉足的主要地區之間的細微差別。對於那些最先開始去庫存的品類，你是否開始看到任何復甦的跡象？

Yes. Look, the destocking has been relatively broad, and it's -- we've been at it now -- we've been living with it for a couple of quarters. The earliest categories where we started to see some signs of excess inventory in the system were those that were impacted the most acutely by the supply chain challenges over the last 12 to 18 months. So we saw -- we've seen destocking in the meat space. We've seen it in the premium coffee space in particular. More recently in the fourth quarter, we started to see a little bit of destocking in the medical packaging space. And then certainly, in North America, in the beverage part of our Rigid Packaging business, we've seen pretty pronounced destocking at a point -- at a seasonal high point in the year.

是的。看，去庫存的範圍相對廣泛，而且我們現在已經這麼做了，我們已經忍受了幾個季度了。我們最早開始看到系統中庫存過剩跡象的類別是過去 12 至 18 個月內受供應鏈挑戰影響最嚴重的類別。所以我們看到——我們看到肉類領域的庫存減少。我們尤其在優質咖啡領域看到了這一點。最近在第四季度，我們開始看到醫療包裝領域的庫存有所減少。當然，在北美，在我們的硬包裝業務的飲料部分，我們在一年中的季節性高點出現了相當明顯的去庫存。

Now we don't have a crystal ball, but we do anticipate that the destocking will be largely behind us by the time we exit this calendar year. And certainly, it will have a less meaningful impact as we head into calendar '24. If you think about it, our volumes for the quarter were down 7%. We would estimate that about 2/3 of that volume decline is the market and our customer performance, and the remaining 1/3 is -- we would attribute to destocking. So certainly, as we move forward and destocking starts to abate through the rest of this calendar year, certainly, that will have less of a negative headwind on our growth rates going forward.

現在我們還沒有水晶球，但我們確實預計，到今年退出時，去庫存將基本上結束。當然，當我們進入日曆“24”時，它的意義將會減弱。如果你仔細想想，我們這個季度的銷量下降了 7%。我們估計，銷量下降的大約 2/3 是由市場和我們的客戶表現造成的，剩下的 1/3 我們將歸因於去庫存。因此，當然，隨著我們向前邁進，去庫存在今年剩餘時間內開始減弱，這對我們未來增長率的負面阻力肯定會減少。

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治·斯塔福斯。

Good day, everybody. Hope you're doing well. Thanks for the details. I guess the first question is just a quick one on net interest. And I know qualitatively, what you said, higher global rates, foreign exchange and the like, but the step-up even from the fourth quarter rate, which was $70 million, so $280 million run rate to the -- I think you're saying $320 million to $340 million for fiscal '24 is pretty steep. And so is there anything specific we should be understanding in terms of what's behind that, Michael.

大家好。希望你做得很好。感謝您提供詳細信息。我想第一個問題只是關於淨利息的快速問題。我從定性上知道，你所說的，更高的全球匯率、外匯等，但即使從第四季度的匯率來看，匯率也有所提高，即7000 萬美元，所以2.8 億美元的運行率- 我認為你是說 24 財年的 3.2 億至 3.4 億美元是相當高的。那麼，邁克爾，我們應該了解其背後的具體內容嗎？

Yes, sure. No, look, I think, overall, interest rates have continued to rise from this time last year, all through the year. So we will be lapping higher rates as we exit. Using Q4 as a proxy is not the best quarter to use as a proxy for interest because that's our highest cash flow quarter obviously. So our interest expense is lower in that quarter typically in comparison to the rest of the quarter as the cash flow comes through. So that's really what we see. We are lapping some higher interest just by the way the rates increased as the year progressed. And there may be 1 or 2 further rate increases that we've factored into the range. So that's where we get to that $320 million to $340 range.

是的，當然。不，你看，我認為，總體而言，從去年這個時候開始，全年利率都在持續上升。因此，當我們退出時，我們將獲得更高的利率。使用第四季度作為代理並不是作為利息代理的最佳季度，因為這顯然是我們現金流量最高的季度。因此，隨著現金流的到來，我們該季度的利息支出通常低於該季度的其他時間。這就是我們所看到的。隨著利率隨著時間的推移而增加，我們正在支付一些更高的利息。我們已將 1 或 2 次進一步加息納入該範圍。這就是我們得出的 3.2 億至 340 美元範圍。

Understood. That's helpful, Michael. And Ron, back to demand and the consumer. To the extent that Amcor produces high-value, high-quality packaging for -- maybe one could argue, sure, they're staples but more like affordable luxuries, if you will, premium coffee, protein, premium pet. I think we've talked about it in the past. But do you think there's maybe a little bit more of a negative effect for your customers and therefore, for you given the environment we've been going through with inflation? Why? Why not? And are you seeing any signs at all from your customers now asking you to somehow find cost reductions, give back so that they in turn can maybe be a little bit more competitive at retail and drive their volume.

明白了。這很有幫助，邁克爾。羅恩，回到需求和消費者。就 Amcor 生產高價值、高質量的包裝而言，也許有人會說，當然，它們是必需品，但如果你願意的話，它們更像是負擔得起的奢侈品，優質咖啡、蛋白質、優質寵物。我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題。但是，考慮到我們一直在經歷的通貨膨脹環境，您是否認為這對您的客戶以及您來說可能會產生更多的負面影響？為什麼？為什麼不？您是否看到客戶現在有任何跡像要求您以某種方式降低成本，回饋社會，以便他們在零售方面可能更具競爭力並提高銷量。

Yes. Look, George, I think that we still believe the portfolio is really defensive and the categories are, for the most part, consumer staples. Now there are subsegments within segments where things might be a little bit more discretionary because of the premium attached to things like single-serve coffee systems or some of the premium pet food. But overall, across the portfolio, we still believe these categories are defensive. They've proven that out over a number of economic cycles.

是的。喬治，我認為我們仍然相信該投資組合確實具有防禦性，而且這些類別大部分都是消費必需品。現在，細分市場中存在一些子細分市場，由於單份咖啡系統或某些優質寵物食品等產品的溢價，事情可能會更加自由裁量。但總體而言，在整個投資組合中，我們仍然認為這些類別具有防禦性。他們已經在多個經濟周期中證明了這一點。

But I think that we've got a dislocation here that we haven't seen in 40 years around inflation, and we convince ourselves of the defensiveness of the portfolio at large by looking at the scanner data. And it's very broad-based, the weakness, in particular, in Europe and in North America in the food business, where you see mid-single-digit declines. And I think generally speaking, others who've reported publicly have experienced the same sort of volume effects that we have.

但我認為，我們在通貨膨脹方面遇到了 40 年來從未見過的錯位，並且通過查看掃描儀數據，我們確信整個投資組合的防禦性。而且這種疲軟的基礎非常廣泛，特別是在歐洲和北美的食品行業，您可以看到中個位數的下降。我認為一般來說，其他公開報導的人也經歷過與我們相同的數量效應。

So I think, yes, we do aspire to play at the high end of the market, and many of our products are at the premium end. But generally, we're in stable segments that will grow consistently through economic cycles.

所以我認為，是的，我們確實渴望進入高端市場，而且我們的許多產品都處於高端市場。但總的來說，我們處於穩定的細分市場，將在整個經濟周期中持續增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell from Barrenjoey.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barrenjoey 的 Brook Campbell。

Just one on the buyback. Obviously, there's $70 million left on the existing program. But what's the thinking about potentially a new program at some point through FY '24? Is that the priority once you get through the $70 million? Or are you leaving some cash flow there for M&A? Or is the priority to sort of pay down some debt and reduce that leverage ratio?

回購時只有一張。顯然，現有計劃還剩下 7000 萬美元。但對於 24 財年某個時候可能推出的新計劃有何想法？一旦你拿到了 7000 萬美元，這就是你的首要任務嗎？還是留下一些現金流用於併購？或者是優先償還一些債務並降低杠桿率？

Yes. Thanks, Brook. Appreciate the question. Look, I think if you look at what we've done over the last couple of years, we bought back over $1 billion of shares. And in addition to that, we've certainly started to get back on the M&A approach as well. So we've done 3 deals this year and in '23 and also announced another deal just recently.

是的。謝謝，布魯克。感謝這個問題。看，我想如果你看看我們過去幾年所做的事情，我們回購了超過 10 億美元的股票。除此之外，我們當然也開始重新採用併購方法。因此，我們今年和 23 年完成了 3 筆交易，最近還宣布了另一筆交易。

We're planning to do the $70 million this year, so we'll close out that buyback. And I think if you think about our capital allocation approach, I mean, clearly, the priority is to invest back in the business through the CapEx for organic growth, which we've stepped that up over the years, and we'll continue to do that this year. We grew the CapEx, and we'll have a similar amount as we head into '24, taking into account the demand environment.

我們計劃今年籌集 7000 萬美元，因此我們將完成這次回購。我認為，如果你考慮我們的資本配置方法，我的意思是，顯然，優先事項是通過資本支出對業務進行投資以實現有機增長，多年來我們一直在加強這一點，並且我們將繼續今年就這樣做。我們增加了資本支出，考慮到需求環境，進入 24 年我們將有類似的數額。

Next year, we obviously pay the dividend, and then that grows over time. And then we've got $300 million or $400 million left over for -- ideally to put to work on M&A or buyback. And so think about the last couple of years. We've certainly covered that capital allocation on the buyback side and now putting a little bit more into M&A. So we've got $70 million in the outlook for '24. As always, we'll continue to model the cash flow as we work through the year, and we'll get back to you if that changes.

明年，我們顯然會支付股息，然後股息會隨著時間的推移而增長。然後我們還有 3 億或 4 億美元的剩餘資金，最好用於併購或回購。想想過去幾年。我們當然已經涵蓋了回購方面的資本配置，現在又在併購方面投入了更多資金。因此，我們對 24 年的展望有 7000 萬美元。與往常一樣，我們將在全年工作中繼續對現金流量進行建模，如果情況發生變化，我們將與您聯繫。

And just a question on espresso. Your customer there seems pretty keen to move product into, I guess, fiber compostable pods. Could you just confirm if you have the capability and products to perhaps offer that format as well given, I guess, you've got already a lot of capital put into those plants that are co-located, I believe? And if that's the way that, that customer goes, can you sort of participate and offer a different format?

只是關於濃縮咖啡的問題。我猜你的客戶似乎非常熱衷於將產品轉移到纖維可堆肥莢中。您能否確認您是否有能力和產品來提供這種格式，我想您已經向這些位於同一地點的工廠投入了大量資金，我相信？如果客戶就是這樣，你能參與並提供不同的格式嗎？

Yes. Look, we have a broad offering of fiber-based options for a number of different categories. And so I think we're going to be well covered as products move between substrates, whether it's aluminum or plastic or plastic to fiber or whichever direction the segment evolves. But I would say that, that is a niche at the moment. It's about expanding the pie. Not every consumer will be willing or capable or interested in composting.

是的。看，我們為許多不同類別提供了廣泛的基於纖維的選擇。因此，我認為，隨著產品在基材之間移動，無論是鋁、塑料、塑料到纖維，還是該細分市場發展的任何方向，我們都將得到很好的覆蓋。但我想說，目前這是一個利基市場。這是為了把蛋糕做大。並非每個消費者都願意、有能力或對堆肥感興趣。

And we know as well as our customer that the sustainability profile of the aluminum capsule is as attractive as any. It's a product -- it's a capsule that can be made with 100% recycled aluminum and can be recycled over and over again. And there's been a lot of investment in the recycling loop for that particular format. So we're not concerned about the long-term viability of that format.

我們和我們的客戶一樣知道，鋁質膠囊的可持續性特徵與其他產品一樣具有吸引力。這是一種產品——它是一種膠囊，可以用 100% 回收鋁製成，並且可以一次又一次回收。針對這種特定形式的回收循環進行了大量投資。所以我們並不擔心這種格式的長期生存能力。

Our next question comes from the line of Cameron McDonald from E&P.

我們的下一個問題來自 E&P 的 Cameron McDonald。

Can I just ask a question around the destocking that you're talking about? And my understanding is also that not only are we getting destocking in -- and consumer weakness, but we're also seeing down trading in -- from sort of more premium products to more home brand type products. Is that having an impact on the packaging demand profile as well and the -- either the price or margin that you generate from that premium product in more of the home brand space?

我可以問一個關於你所說的去庫存的問題嗎？我的理解是，我們不僅在去庫存——以及消費者疲軟，而且我們還看到貿易量的下降——從更高端的產品到更多家庭品牌類型的產品。這是否也會對包裝需求狀況以及您在更多家居品牌領域從優質產品中獲得的價格或利潤產生影響？

Yes. Look, thanks for the question. It's a different story in North America from Europe. So the private label, in general, has picked up a few percentage points of share broadly across the European market. It's been -- it's just slightly now ahead of where the share for private label was in 2019.

是的。聽著，謝謝你的提問。北美的情況與歐洲不同。因此，總體而言，自有品牌在整個歐洲市場的份額已經上升了幾個百分點。現在僅略高於 2019 年自有品牌的份額。

In North America, we're not -- we're still not quite back to the share that private label had in 2019 at large. And ultimately, as products or as sales migrate to private label from branded or vice versa, we're pretty well exposed. And so we've got a reasonably broad participation in the store brand side of the business, such that those share shifts are not really going to have a material impact on our volumes. And the packaging is essentially the same. That's part of the private label formula. And so from a margin profile perspective or a differentiation perspective, we're sort of indifferent.

在北美，我們還沒有完全恢復到 2019 年自有品牌所佔的總體份額。最終，隨著產品或銷售從品牌轉向自有品牌，反之亦然，我們的曝光率相當高。因此，我們在商店品牌方面的業務具有相當廣泛的參與度，因此這些份額的變化不會真正對我們的銷量產生重大影響。而且包裝基本上是一樣的。這是自有品牌公式的一部分。因此，從利潤率角度或差異化角度來看，我們有點漠不關心。

Okay. Great. And just coming back to the previous question on sustainability of packaging. There seems to also be a move to potentially be sort of fiber-based and alternative packaging for beverages. What work are you doing around that, please?

好的。偉大的。回到之前關於包裝可持續性的問題。似乎還有一種可能是基於纖維的飲料替代包裝的趨勢。請問您在這方面做了哪些工作？

Yes. We have a pretty extensive platform that we call AmFiber, which is a fiber-based packaging for a range of product categories. We see the opportunity, particularly in the confectionery space, to move from plastic-based products to fiber-based products, culinary, some formats like spices and food additives. So our work on the fiber side is pretty extensive. There's a little less activity in the beverage space to be quite honest. But generally speaking, AmFiber is a big platform for us, and we're optimistic about the growth outlook.

是的。我們有一個相當廣泛的平台，稱為 AmFiber，它是一種基於纖維的包裝，適用於一系列產品類別。我們看到了從塑料產品轉向纖維產品、烹飪、香料和食品添加劑等某些形式的機會，特別是在糖果領域。所以我們在光纖方面的工作相當廣泛。老實說，飲料領域的活動有點少。但總的來說，AmFiber 對我們來說是一個大平台，我們對增長前景持樂觀態度。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I guess the first question is if we think about the quarter and then moving into '24. Just wanted to ask a question on mix. And I look at it in the Flexibles segment, and mix is still a 2% positive contributor in the quarter, less than it had been earlier in the year but still positive year-on-year, although I look at kind of some of the parts of Flexibles that I've historically thought had contributed to that mix in terms of health care and protein and pad and premium coffee and those all were down kind of consistent with the overall segment volumetrically. So just help us maybe dissect kind of what's happening in mix and kind of where you see that trending through fiscal '24.

我想第一個問題是我們是否考慮本季度，然後進入 24 年。只是想問一個關於mix的問題。我在靈活的細分市場中進行了研究，該季度的混合仍佔 2% 的積極貢獻，低於今年早些時候的水平，但同比仍然是積極的，儘管我看到了一些我歷來認為軟飲料的部分在醫療保健、蛋白質、咖啡粉和優質咖啡方面對這種組合做出了貢獻，而這些都與整體細分市場的銷量一致。因此，請幫助我們剖析混合中正在發生的事情以及您在 24 財年看到的趨勢。

Yes. Look, we had unfavorable mix in both segments in the fourth quarter as you -- and you pointed out the reasons why. I mean some of the categories that you would expect to be positive contributors to mix were softer in the fourth quarter, meat. In particular, pet care even slowed a bit in the fourth quarter as did medical. What you're referring to is price and mix together. And I think you've got to bear in mind that we're still experiencing reasonably high levels of inflation, and we still have been and continue to be actively pricing to recover inflation.

是的。看，我們在第四季度的兩個細分市場都出現了不利的組合，正如您所指出的那樣，您也指出了原因。我的意思是，您期望對混合做出積極貢獻的一些類別在第四季度變得更加疲軟，例如肉類。特別是，寵物護理和醫療在第四季度甚至略有放緩。你說的就是價格和搭配。我認為你必須記住，我們仍然在經歷相當高的通脹水平，而且我們仍然並且繼續積極定價以恢復通脹。

So for the fiscal year, we priced up about $1.1 billion between raw materials and general inflation. About $300 million to $340 million of that was general inflation. And so you're seeing price and mix combined. So you've got positive price offset by (inaudible).

因此，在本財年，我們在原材料和總體通脹之間定價約 11 億美元。其中約 3 億至 3.4 億美元是一般通貨膨脹。所以你會看到價格和組合的結合。因此，您已經獲得了正價格抵消（聽不清）。

Okay. That's really helpful. And if I could just ask a follow-up on your -- kind of the move or just the focus on protein and the investments in equipment, I mean, you've got some pretty large incumbents when you think about that market, especially on the fresh meat side with equipment. I mean what do you think the business needs to do to scale and grow more significantly there where you've got -- you do have a competitor who has a pretty significant incumbent position?

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我可以詢問您的後續行動，或者只是關注蛋白質和設備投資，我的意思是，當您考慮該市場時，您已經有一些相當大的現有企業，特別是在鮮肉方面配有設備。我的意思是，您認為企業需要做什麼才能擴大規模並在您所在的地方實現更顯著的增長——您確實有一個擁有相當重要的現任職位的競爭對手？

Yes. Look, that's clear, and most of our markets are pretty competitive, including that one. What we needed as a starting point was a full system offering, which we didn't have. And so the Moda acquisition allows us to offer the primary packaging equipment. It will offer -- will allow us to offer technical services and parts. And that all combines with what we believe is industry-leading film technology, including in that space.

是的。看，這一點很明顯，我們的大多數市場都相當有競爭力，包括那個市場。作為起點，我們需要的是完整的系統產品，但我們沒有。因此，收購 Moda 使我們能夠提供初級包裝設備。它將允許我們提供技術服務和零件。這一切都與我們認為行業領先的電影技術相結合，包括在該領域。

And the films in the protein space are amongst the most demanding of any that we produce. If you think about the functional requirements for meat packaging, there's obviously a barrier that's required to preserve shelf life. There also tends to be the need for puncture resistance. You got to run these packages through the lines, the packaging lines at high speed, so the processing requirement is quite high.

蛋白質領域的薄膜是我們生產的薄膜中要求最高的。如果您考慮肉類包裝的功能要求，顯然需要一個屏障來保持保質期。往往還需要抗穿刺性。你必須讓這些包裹通過生產線、包裝線高速運行，所以加工要求相當高。

And we believe we've got some advantaged film technology, and the ability to now go to market with a full solution including equipment and aftermarket service just completes the puzzle for us. So we're really excited about the market. It's also one that we can leverage over our global footprint. And it really represents a pretty visible revenue synergy from the Bemis acquisition of several years ago now. So we're pretty -- we're excited about it. And look, every segment is competitive, and we just have to -- we have to compete and earn the business obviously, but we're pretty optimistic we'll be able to do that.

我們相信我們已經擁有一些優勢的薄膜技術，並且現在能夠將包括設備和售後服務在內的完整解決方案推向市場，這為我們解決了難題。所以我們對這個市場感到非常興奮。這也是我們可以利用我們的全球足蹟的一個途徑。這確實代表了幾年前收購 Bemis 帶來的相當明顯的收入協同效應。所以我們很漂亮——我們對此感到興奮。看，每個細分市場都充滿競爭，我們必須——顯然，我們必須競爭並贏得業務，但我們非常樂觀，我們將能夠做到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Seow from Citibank.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Sam Seow。

Just I wanted to follow up on some earlier comments that you've got the mix and volume growth assumed in the second half of '24 kind of growth expectations. So just to confirm, you're saying, if volume growth starts to come back, you'd expect upside to the mid-single to high single digits in the second half?

我只是想跟進一些之前的評論，即您在 24 年下半年假設了混合和銷量增長的增長預期。因此，為了確認一下，您是說，如果銷量增長開始回升，您預計下半年會出現中個位數到高個位數的上漲嗎？

Yes. We're not banking on a much improved demand picture. We think it's more prudent for us to set the business up to assume that volumes are going to be challenged through the year. So for the first half of the year, we're expecting volumes to continue to be down mid-single digits, mid- to high single digits.

是的。我們並不指望需求狀況會大幅改善。我們認為，對我們來說，更謹慎的做法是假設全年銷量將受到挑戰。因此，今年上半年，我們預計銷量將繼續下降中個位數、中個位數到高個位數。

Second half of the year, we would expect volumes to be flat to maybe up low single digits. And we believe that's possible without much of an improvement in the underlying demand profile because we are pretty confident that we'll be through the other end of the destocking cycle by the time we get to calendar year of 2024. So yes, there's no expectation of a dramatic improvement in the overall demand environment that's baked into our guidance.

今年下半年，我們預計銷量將持平，甚至可能會增長低個位數。我們相信，即使基本需求狀況沒有太大改善，這也是可能的，因為我們非常有信心，到 2024 年時，我們將度過去庫存週期的另一端。所以，是的，沒有期望整體需求環境的顯著改善已納入我們的指導。

That's helpful. And just a follow-up on potential volume growth. Looking through the year, it looks like rigids were the first to decline followed by flexibles as we think about the potential (inaudible), is it logical to expect rigids to come back quicker than flexibles? Or is there something to call out there?

這很有幫助。這只是潛在銷量增長的後續行動。縱觀這一年，當我們考慮潛力（聽不清）時，剛性資產似乎首先下降，然後是柔性資產，期望剛性資產比柔性資產更快恢復是否合乎邏輯？或者有什麼需要注意的地方嗎？

Look, we would expect the volume trajectory to be roughly comparable. Now rigids has got another strong -- another seasonally strong quarter to get through, and we're not expecting the business to be all the way back from a demand perspective in the fiscal first quarter. In fact, we expect continued softness and continued destocking in the North American beverage business in particular.

看，我們預計成交量軌跡大致可比。現在，剛性業務又迎來了一個強勁的季度——又一個季節性強勁的季度，我們預計從第一財季的需求角度來看，業務不會一路回升。事實上，我們預計北美飲料業務將持續疲軟並持續去庫存。

But generally speaking, if we take a 12-month view, our expectation is that the volume trajectory would be similar across the 2 segments. And look, as you pointed out, this is the swing factor in our guidance range. So to the extent that the volume picture improves, that would be a driver of us getting to the higher end of our range or beyond. We're just not setting the business up to expect that. We're taking the cost actions that you'd expect us to take, and we're going to be really prudent before we anticipate demand coming back.

但一般來說，如果我們從 12 個月的角度來看，我們的預期是這兩個細分市場的銷量軌跡將相似。正如您所指出的，這是我們指導範圍內的波動因素。因此，只要成交量有所改善，這將成為我們達到或超出範圍的高端的驅動力。我們只是沒有讓業務達到這樣的預期。我們正在採取您期望我們採取的成本行動，並且在預計需求回升之前我們將非常謹慎。

Our next question comes from Daniel Kang from CLSA.

我們的下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Daniel Kang。

First one, maybe to Mike, just in regards to your FY '24 guidance. Can you talk us through your assumptions and maybe expectations on price mix and any input cost tailwinds?

第一個，也許是對邁克來說的，只是關於您 24 財年的指導。您能否向我們介紹一下您對價格組合和任何投入成本有利因素的假設和預期？

Yes, sure. I think if I take the raw material side first, we experienced -- in Q4, we saw raw materials pretty well across the board come down in that mid-single-digit range after a pretty benign Q3. And in Q4, we saw -- we just saw a modest tailwind as we're still cycling through the higher inventories and also reduced purchases.

是的，當然。我認為，如果我首先考慮原材料方面，我們在第四季度經歷過，在經歷了相當溫和的第三季度之後，我們看到原材料全面下降在中個位數範圍內。在第四季度，我們看到了適度的順風，因為我們仍在經歷較高的庫存和減少的採購。

So as we look forward on the raw materials side, what we see into the first quarter really is a pretty benign environment, basically flat raw material, maybe slightly down, but that would translate into a relatively modest tailwind in the first quarter. After that, we'll see where things go on the raw material side.

因此，當我們展望原材料方面時，我們看到第一季度確實是一個相當良性的環境，原材料基本持平，可能略有下降，但這將轉化為第一季度相對溫和的推動力。之後，我們將看看原材料方面的情況。

Look, on the price mix, we'll continue to price for inflation. So as we've said in the remarks throughout, we expect to continue along the price and cost initiatives that we've already been taking. So inflation -- albeit we're still expecting inflation perhaps maybe at slightly lower levels than we've been experiencing, but we will continue to see inflation as we work through '24. So we'd expect to see some price to offset that as well as cost.

看，在價格組合上，我們將繼續根據通貨膨脹定價。因此，正如我們在整個講話中所說的那樣，我們預計將繼續採取我們已經採取的價格和成本舉措。因此，通貨膨脹——儘管我們仍然預計通貨膨脹可能會比我們經歷過的水平略低，但在整個 24 世紀我們將繼續看到通貨膨脹。因此，我們預計會看到一些價格來抵消這一點以及成本。

And then on the mix side, look, I think, initially, we would expect some negative mix really as we saw in Q4, which we touched on the call already today, so things like health care, pet food, coffee, et cetera. As we're just cycling some stronger [comparatives] on that front, we would expect mix to be perhaps a negative particularly as we start the year.

然後在混合方面，我認為，最初，我們預計會出現一些負面混合，就像我們在第四季度看到的那樣，我們今天已經在電話會議中談到了這一點，例如醫療保健、寵物食品、咖啡等。由於我們只是在這方面循環一些更強的[比較]，我們預計混合可能會是負面的，特別是在我們年初的時候。

Our next question comes from Richard Johnson from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的理查德·約翰遜 (Richard Johnson)。

Ron, one of the things we're hearing quite consistently now from a lot of your major customers is some very significant SKU rationalization programs that they're having. In particular, I believe I'm right in saying that Unilever had taken their SKUs down by 25%, which is a huge number. I was just interested in getting your opinion on what that means, if anything, for yourselves.

Ron，我們現在從你們的許多主要客戶那裡聽到的一件事是，他們正在實施一些非常重要的 SKU 合理化計劃。特別是，我相信我說的聯合利華已將其 SKU 減少了 25%，這是一個巨大的數字。我只是想听聽你們對這對你們自己意味著什麼（如果有的話）的看法。

Yes. Look, it's maybe not as pervasive as it might seem from some of the public comments, but to the extent that SKUs can get rationalized, it's generally a good thing for us. There's 2 things going on. There is a bit of SKU rationalization. The other thing that's happening is the continued evolution towards more sustainable formats and more sustainable SKUs.

是的。看，它可能不像一些公眾評論中看起來那麼普遍，但就 SKU 能夠合理化而言，這對我們來說通常是一件好事。有兩件事正在發生。 SKU 有一點合理化。正在發生的另一件事是向更可持續的格式和更可持續的 SKU 的持續發展。

And I think SKUs have proliferated across all the categories that we service. You think about the variety of a store shelf certainly here in the U.S., it's really been explosive growth over a long period of time and the number of SKUs that are available. So anything that simplifies the business and takes out unnecessary or non-value-adding complexity is generally a good thing. And then at the same time, helping that process along by introducing more sustainable formats is also advantageous to us, too. So I think we're in lockstep with the customers that you probably have in mind and on that journey or both of those journeys at the same time.

我認為 SKU 已經在我們服務的所有類別中激增。你想想美國商店貨架的種類，在很長一段時間內，可用的 SKU 數量確實呈爆炸性增長。因此，任何能夠簡化業務並消除不必要或非增值複雜性的事情通常都是一件好事。與此同時，通過引入更可持續的格式來幫助這一進程也對我們有利。因此，我認為我們與您可能想到的、在該旅程或同時在這兩個旅程中的客戶保持同步。

That's helpful. And then just finally, you referred to your volume pressures being more skewed to developed rather than emerging markets, which, of course, is perfectly understandable. I was just interested if we get a bit more detail on where you sit in EM because others -- and there are reports that there's been significant down trading in emerging markets as well away from multinationals to local brands in particular, and then obviously for many large packaging company or global packaging companies, that might be unhelpful. So I'm just trying to get a sense of why you may have outperformed an EM relative to others.

這很有幫助。最後，您提到您的銷量壓力更傾向於發達市場而不是新興市場，這當然是完全可以理解的。我只是感興趣，如果我們能更詳細地了解您在新興市場的位置，因為其他人- 有報導稱，新興市場的交易量大幅下降，尤其是從跨國公司到本土品牌，然後顯然對於許多人來說大型包裝公司或全球包裝公司，這可能沒有幫助。所以我只是想了解為什麼相對於其他人，你可能比新興市場表現得更好。

Yes. Look, it's a good question. It feels more like the underperformance in the DMs relative to the EMs is the thing that's not easy to understand. I mean we saw volume declines in Europe and North America kind of high single digits in the fourth quarter, again, entirely consistent with what others have reported and the scanner data, et cetera. But the EM business has held up, but we had volumes in Asia in the emerging part of Asia, basically flat in the quarter. Latin America was down mid-single digits. So both of those regions had better volume performance than the 2 big developed markets.

是的。瞧，這是個好問題。感覺更像是發達市場相對於新興市場的表現不佳，這是一件不容易理解的事情。我的意思是，我們看到歐洲和北美的銷量在第四季度出現了較高的個位數下降，這與其他人的報告和掃描儀數據等完全一致。但新興市場業務一直保持增長，但我們在亞洲新興地區的銷量在本季度基本持平。拉丁美洲下降了中個位數。因此，這兩個地區的銷量表現均優於兩大發達市場。

Look, I don't know. I think we have a pretty compelling value proposition in emerging markets generally as an innovation leader and a sustainability leader. And then our participation in our customer mix generally looks like the market. So if I take a business like China, we actually have more of our sales to local customers than to multinationals. And basically, that reflects the market shares of those respective customer groups. So I think we're well balanced for the differential growth rates that you're referring to.

瞧，我不知道。我認為，作為創新領導者和可持續發展領導者，我們在新興市場中擁有非常引人注目的價值主張。然後我們對客戶組合的參與通常看起來就像市場一樣。因此，如果我拿中國這樣的企業來說，我們實際上對本地客戶的銷售比對跨國公司的銷售更多。基本上，這反映了這些各自客戶群的市場份額。因此，我認為我們對於您所指的增長率差異非常平衡。

Our next question comes from the line of John Purtell from Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理的 John Purtell。

Just had a couple of questions. Just first one for Michael just in terms of interest expense. What percentage is fixed and floating now? And are you looking to fix more to essentially kind of lock in your interest expense?

只是有幾個問題。就利息支出而言，這只是邁克爾的第一個。現在固定和浮動的比例是多少？您是否希望採取更多措施以基本上鎖定您的利息支出？

Yes. Look, John, so we -- traditionally, we've been in that 50-50 fixed floating mix but more recently, so over '23 and looking into '24 in more 70-30, so would take a bit of the volatility out of the mix there on that front. So that's where we sit today, on that 70-30 range fixed floating.

是的。聽著，約翰，所以我們——傳統上，我們一直處於50-50 的固定浮動組合中，但最近，所以在23 年以上，並在24 年中考慮更多70-30 的情況，因此會消除一些波動性在那方面的混合。這就是我們今天所處的位置，即 70-30 的固定浮動區間。

So that is pretty stable.

所以這是相當穩定的。

Yes.

是的。

And just a second question, Ron, on acquisitions. Are you seeing more opportunities now that fit your criteria? I know, obviously, valuations are generally coming down. And will you sort of naturally play at the smaller to medium end? Obviously, we saw Constantia recently sold to private equity.

羅恩，第二個問題是關於收購的。您現在是否看到更多符合您標準的機會？我知道，顯然，估值普遍在下降。您會自然而然地玩中小型遊戲嗎？顯然，我們看到康斯坦蒂亞最近被出售給私募股權公司。

Yes. Look, we have been more active. So we've done 4 deals in the last 12 months. They're all of the small variety and single plant deals. So the first comment I would make is, yes, there are more things that seem to be coming to market. I mean we went through a period of pretty pronounced market dislocation through COVID and then the supply chain constraints and now some softer volumes, but I think sellers are more likely to bring things to market now than they would have been, let's say, 2 years ago. So the pipeline is relatively robust, and we've been able to convert for small deals in the last 12 months.

是的。看，我們更加主動了。所以我們在過去 12 個月裡完成了 4 筆交易。它們都是小品種和單一植物的交易。所以我要說的第一句話是，是的，似乎有更多的東西正在進入市場。我的意思是，由於新冠疫情，我們經歷了一段相當明顯的市場混亂時期，然後是供應鏈限制，現在銷量有所下降，但我認為，與兩年前相比，賣家現在更有可能將產品推向市場前。因此，渠道相對穩健，在過去 12 個月內我們已經能夠實現小額交易的轉化。

The second part of your question about the size really just reflects the nature of the participants in our space. There's just, by number, and I hold a lot more smaller single plant businesses than there are large multibillion-dollar businesses like the one that you mentioned. So I think just generally, you're going to see us execute more smaller deals.

關於規模的問題的第二部分實際上反映了我們空間參與者的性質。只是，從數量上看，我擁有的小型單一工廠企業比您提到的價值數十億美元的大型企業要多得多。所以我認為一般來說，你會看到我們執行更多較小的交易。

It doesn't mean for a second that we would not love to deploy bigger amounts of capital. So we would be on the lookout for medium- and larger-sized deals as well. I just think by -- the law of numbers will suggest that most of the deals will be of the smaller variety.

這並不意味著我們不願意部署更多的資本。因此，我們也會尋找中型和大型交易。我只是認為，根據數字法則，大多數交易的種類都會較少。

Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Reilly from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的內森·賴利 (Nathan Reilly)。

Question about just the cost out program. How much flexibility you might have around that just in terms of whether that destocking trend continues a little bit longer than, I guess, what you've currently forecast, how much flexibility you might have just to sort of go a little bit harder around the cost base?

關於成本計劃的問題。就去庫存趨勢是否比你目前的預測持續時間長一點而言，你可能有多大的靈活性，你可能有多少靈活性，只是為了在這個問題上更加努力一點成本基礎？

Yes. Look, we're getting after it pretty good would be the first thing I would say. So we're going after it reasonably hard. You have to remember also that the business has been optimized through the last several years. I mean through the Bemis integration, we took a number of plants out of the network. A couple of years before that, we took a few out of the rigids network as well. So the business is reasonably well optimized.

是的。聽著，我要說的第一件事就是我們正在追求它，這很好。所以我們會相當努力地追求它。您還必須記住，該業務在過去幾年中已經得到了優化。我的意思是，通過 Bemis 集成，我們將許多工廠從網絡中剔除。幾年前，我們也從剛性網絡中取出了一些。因此，業務得到了相當好的優化。

But that being said, there's more opportunity. And we've announced 3.5 plant closures already. There'll be more. The common with demand remains depressed. Then, there is the opportunity to do a little bit more, although I would also point out that the ultimate path to value creation for the company is to grow, and we want to make sure that we've got the productive assets available when demand normalizes.

但話雖這麼說，還有更多機會。我們已經宣布關閉 3.5 家工廠。還會有更多。需求的共同點依然低迷。然後，就有機會做更多的事情，儘管我也想指出，公司創造價值的最終途徑是增長，我們希望確保在需要時我們擁有可用的生產性資產正常化。

We don't see any of the demand challenges that we're experiencing right at the moment. We don't see a secular. We believe this is a cycle, and we believe it's an inflation-induced cycle and that volumes will return. And I mean, certainly, the destocking impact will abate. But we do preserve the flexibility here. If we need to go after it harder on the cost side, we certainly will do that.

我們目前沒有看到任何需求挑戰。我們看不到世俗。我們相信這是一個週期，並且我們相信這是一個通脹引發的周期，並且交易量將會恢復。我的意思是，去庫存的影響肯定會減弱。但我們確實保留了這裡的靈活性。如果我們需要在成本方面更加努力，我們當然會這樣做。

And I guess, just following through in terms of, historically, you've managed cost inflation quite well. But I guess -- and I'm talking about the general cost inflation in terms of being able to pass that through to customers with higher pricing. But in a period that's characterized by a high level of destocking and lower demand, can you give us an update on how you're going just in terms of recovering the general cost inflation and just around that, maybe just a comment around just how that sort of inflation has been trending recently?

我想，從歷史上看，您已經很好地控制了成本通脹。但我想——我說的是總體成本通脹，因為能夠將其轉嫁給價格更高的客戶。但在一個以高水平去庫存和較低需求為特徵的時期，您能否向我們介紹一下您在恢復總體成本通脹方面的最新進展以及相關情況，也許只是評論一下如何做到這一點最近有某種通貨膨脹趨勢嗎？

Yes. Well, as far as the trend, I think we are starting to see inflation moderate. I'm not sure that we're seeing prices fall anywhere, but we're seeing the rate of increase certainly decline across most of the cost buckets. I'd say labor still increase in kind of mid-single digits. We still have higher energy costs than we had a couple of years ago. Freight might be one area where we've seen some declines off of the peaks.

是的。就趨勢而言，我認為我們開始看到通脹溫和。我不確定我們是否會看到價格在任何地方下降，但我們看到大多數成本類別的增長率肯定會下降。我想說勞動力仍然以中個位數增長。我們的能源成本仍然比幾年前更高。貨運可能是我們看到較高峰有所下降的領域之一。

So it's still a real fact of life, number one. Number two, I think we have been successful in pricing to recover. We remain kind of fully recovered if you will. Last year, the general inflation running through the business was over $300 million, and we offset that with price. We'll expect to continue to do that as we go into fiscal '24.

所以這仍然是生活中的一個現實事實，第一。第二，我認為我們在定價復甦方面取得了成功。如果你願意的話，我們仍然完全康復了。去年，整個業務的總體通貨膨脹超過 3 億美元，我們用價格來抵消。我們預計在進入 24 財年時將繼續這樣做。

We also reset prices with new contracts and as you expect, that probably 2/3 of the business is contracted. Maybe 3/4 of the business is contracted. The average duration is 2 to 3 years, maybe 4 years. So every year, you're turning over a portion of the revenue base and having an opportunity to reset pricing to reflect the current dynamics in the current inflation conditions. So it remains a fact of life, but I certainly feel like we're coming out the other end of the inflationary cycle.

我們還通過新合同重置價格，正如您所期望的，可能 2/3 的業務已簽訂合同。也許3/4的業務是承包的。平均持續時間為2至3年，甚至4年。因此，每年，您都會上交一部分收入基礎，並有機會重置定價以反映當前通脹狀況的動態。因此，這仍然是生活中的一個事實，但我確實覺得我們正在走出通貨膨脹週期的另一端。

Our next question comes from the line of James Wilson from Jarden Australia.

我們的下一個問題來自來自 Jarden Australia 的 James Wilson。

I was just wondering if you could give us maybe a little bit more color firstly on how your inventory and working capital management is progressing heading into '24.

我只是想知道您是否可以首先向我們介紹一下您的庫存和營運資金管理在 24 世紀的進展情況。

Yes, sure. I can take that one there. Look, we were obviously building inventory this time last year, and that was back on -- there were supply constraints in the marketplace, a lot of different activity happening, and we certainly built inventory during that period as well as putting through -- over the last 2 years, put $3 billion roughly through the top line in terms of price to recover raw material and inflation. So both of those factors have impacted working capital.

是的，當然。我可以把那個帶到那裡。看，我們去年這個時候顯然在建立庫存，而且這又回來了——市場上存在供應限制，發生了很多不同的活動，我們當然在那段時間建立了庫存並通過了——超過過去兩年，大約投入了30 億美元的價格來恢復原材料和通貨膨脹。因此，這兩個因素都影響了營運資本。

But from November, we really worked down our inventory levels. And from the peak in November, we've taken nearly $400 million out, and $200 million of that was in -- was just in Q4. We haven't seen the full benefit of that really come through from a cash flow standpoint yet because, at the same time in this -- particularly in the second half of the year, we've seen a much lower payables position. So our -- although our inventory has come down kind of point-to-point over the year around $200 million, our payables have also actually come down about $500 million.

但從 11 月份開始，我們確實降低了庫存水平。從 11 月份的峰值開始，我們已經提取了近 4 億美元，其中 2 億美元是在第四季度投入的。從現金流的角度來看，我們還沒有看到真正帶來的全部好處，因為與此同時，特別是在今年下半年，我們看到應付賬款狀況要低得多。因此，儘管我們的庫存在這一年裡逐點下降了約 2 億美元，但我們的應付賬款實際上也下降了約 5 億美元。

So if you look at our working capital performance during the year, we had a cash outflow of around $230 million. Really, that's the payables impact. So as we've seen the lower demand signals, we've started to reduce our purchasing in addition to that, taking inventory out of the system. And so we did see a negative impact on working capital as a cash outflow in the year.

因此，如果你看看我們這一年的營運資金表現，就會發現我們的現金流出約為 2.3 億美元。確實，這就是應付賬款的影響。因此，當我們看到需求下降的信號時，我們已經開始減少採購，從系統中清除庫存。因此，我們確實看到了今年現金流出對營運資本的負面影響。

As we look forward, we've still got work to do on the inventory side, and we'll continue to focus on that. And I think the payables side will start to normalize as we work through some of this softer demand. So as we work through '24, certainly not anticipating a cash outflow at the level that we had in FY '23. And we hope to be able to get to a more neutral position by the year-end.

展望未來，我們在庫存方面仍有工作要做，我們將繼續關注這一點。我認為，隨著我們解決一些需求疲軟的問題，應付賬款方面將開始正常化。因此，當我們在 24 財年工作時，我們肯定不會預期現金流出會達到 23 財年的水平。我們希望能夠在年底前達到更加中立的立場。

From a working capital to sales standpoint, we're about 9.5% working capital to sales at the moment. Typically, we would be more in the 8% to 9% range. So I think we've certainly got some opportunity now there as well as you look forward over the next couple of years.

從營運資金與銷售的角度來看，目前我們的營運資金與銷售的比例約為 9.5%。通常，我們會在 8% 到 9% 的範圍內。因此，我認為我們現在肯定有一些機會，您也期待著未來幾年的發展。

And guys, just in terms of how much of that is sort of baked into your free cash flow guidance for next year, am I right in seeing that it's sort of a buffer on the downside? Or is that potentially already baked into what you've come out with today as guidance?

伙計們，就其中有多少被納入明年的自由現金流指導而言，我是否正確地認為這是一種下行緩衝？或者這可能已經融入到您今天發布的指南中了嗎？

Yes. So the cash flow guidance for '24 is $850 million to $950 million, so it's a $100 million range, which is really the working capital range in there. So at the midpoint, probably still going to see a little bit of cash outflow, but we've obviously got some opportunity to do better than that, and that's really the working capital is the key factor there.

是的。因此，24 年的現金流指導為 8.5 億美元至 9.5 億美元，因此範圍為 1 億美元，這實際上是其中的營運資金範圍。因此，在中期，可能仍會看到一點現金流出，但我們顯然有一些機會做得更好，而這確實是營運資金是關鍵因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Ryall from Rimor.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rimor 的 Scott Ryall。

Hopefully, mine are quite quick questions. I was wondering if you could comment on what you've seen in terms of the changes of your customers in terms of their price expectations around responsible, sustainable packaging, please and the willingness to pay a premium, I guess, over virgin products. How that's changed over the last 12 months, that's what I'm asking, sorry.

希望我的問題是很快的。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您所看到的客戶對負責任、可持續包裝的價格期望的變化，以及我想比原始產品支付溢價的意願。抱歉，過去 12 個月裡情況發生了怎樣的變化，這就是我要問的。

Yes. Look, I don't know that it's changed much. I mean I think customers understand that there's more value to be ascribed to a product that's got a better sustainability profile. And I think consumers understand that as well. It's another element of functionality that is now expected in consumer products. And that is the environmental profile is at least neutral, if not, positive overall. And there's value associated with that.

是的。看看吧，不知道變化有多大。我的意思是，我認為客戶明白，具有更好可持續性特徵的產品具有更多價值。我認為消費者也明白這一點。這是現在消費產品中所期望的另一個功能元素。也就是說，環境狀況至少是中性的，即使不是，總體來說也是積極的。並且有與此相關的價值。

And so most of these products do have a premium. There's also the scale curve that we need to work through. We're introducing new products, and like any new product with less volume and less scale benefits, they typically tend to start out at a higher price point and will evolve over time. But I think as brand owners look to meet their own commitments and you take the full range of different costs, including regulatory costs, into consideration, the more sustainable products offer higher value and therefore, they tend to carry a bit higher price, particularly at the outset.

所以大多數這些產品確實有溢價。我們還需要研究比例曲線。我們正在推出新產品，就像任何銷量較小、規模效益較小的新產品一樣，它們通常會以較高的價格開始，並會隨著時間的推移而發展。但我認為，當品牌所有者希望履行自己的承諾時，並且考慮到各種不同的成本，包括監管成本，更可持續的產品提供更高的價值，因此，它們往往會承擔更高的價格，特別是在一開始。

And then secondly, I just wanted to ask a bit more about the Licella plant in Australia and just for a bit more detail. Am I right, firstly, that you've invested directly in Licella? Then, can you just give us a few stage gates or timings around when that plant will come into operation? And I guess, thirdly, just discuss again in the U.S. market where we've got a lot of advanced recycling facilities being built or already built. They tend to be linked with one of the major petrochemical companies. How do you think about the risk around using effectively the solution with a start-up, please?

其次，我只是想更多地了解一下澳大利亞的 Licella 工廠，以及更多的細節。首先，您直接投資了 Licella，我說得對嗎？那麼，您能否給我們提供一些階段性的信息或該工廠何時投入運營的時間安排？我想，第三，再討論一下美國市場，我們已經建造或已經建造了許多先進的回收設施。他們往往與主要石化公司之一有聯繫。請問您如何看待在初創企業中有效使用該解決方案的風險？

Yes. Look, there's a lot there, and it's a pretty exciting project. So I'm glad you asked. I mean the investment we've made, firstly, I would just make sure it's clear. It's a modest investment, several million dollars. It's in the single digits of millions of dollars. We're co-investing with Mondelez, and we're investing in Licella as the technology provider for this particular plant that's going to be built in the western suburbs of Melbourne and Altona.

是的。看，那裡有很多東西，這是一個非常令人興奮的項目。所以我很高興你問了。我的意思是我們所做的投資，首先，我會確保它是明確的。這是一筆不大的投資，幾百萬美元。其金額為數百萬美元。我們正在與 Mondelez 共同投資，並投資 Licella 作為該工廠的技術提供商，該工廠將建在墨爾本和阿爾托納的西郊。

We're pretty excited because it will bring recycled content -- chemically recycled material to the Australian market with local production, which is great because the collection of soft plastics, as they're referred to in Australia, through the red cycle program needs an outlet. This plant will be a perfect outlet for the recycled plastics that are collected.

我們非常興奮，因為它將把回收內容——化學回收材料帶到澳大利亞市場並進行本地生產，這很棒，因為通過紅色循環計劃收集軟塑料（在澳大利亞被稱為軟塑料）需要一個出口。該工廠將成為收集到的再生塑料的完美出口。

And then the brand owners in Australia are differentiating and are really advocates for more sustainable packaging, including packaging made with recycled content. So there's a captive supply of the primary input, which is waste plastic. And there's a captive market, which is the brand owner and the Australian consumer looking for more sustainable packaging. So we're really excited about this.

然後，澳大利亞的品牌所有者正在與眾不同，並且真正倡導更可持續的包裝，包括用回收材料製成的包裝。因此，主要原料是自有供應，即廢塑料。還有一個專屬市場，即尋求更可持續包裝的品牌所有者和澳大利亞消費者。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

In terms of stage gates, look, it's a pretty extensive build as you'd imagine. It's -- the site has been selected. If -- there's a chance that the plant could be operational by the end of calendar '24, but it's really an 18- to 24-month project.

就舞台大門而言，看，正如您想像的那樣，這是一個相當廣泛的建築。地點已選定。如果 - 該工廠有可能在 24 月底投入運營，但這實際上是一個為期 18 至 24 個月的項目。

Our final question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治·斯塔福斯。

Ron, I was asking earlier, just are you seeing any signs from your customers at all as they're trying to find ways to stimulate growth. Maybe they're considering more promotional activity at the request of their customers that they're now coming back to their packaging suppliers and looking for your and other companies' support perhaps with givebacks, cost reductions, productivity. What's happening there, if anything, on that front?

羅恩，我之前問過，當您的客戶試圖尋找刺激增長的方法時，您是否看到任何跡象？也許他們正在考慮應客戶的要求進行更多的促銷活動，他們現在正在回到他們的包裝供應商那裡，尋求您和其他公司的支持，也許包括回饋、降低成本、提高生產力。如果有的話，這方面發生了什麼？

Yes. Thanks, George. Look, others have talked about potentially increased promotional activity. We really haven't seen much of that of any great consequence. I mean you see it a little bit more in the beverage space in the summer season. But really, I mean -- and there are pockets of promotions here and there, but nothing that's pervasive enough that we would point to that's got a material impact on our volume outlook.

是的。謝謝，喬治。看，其他人已經談到了可能增加的促銷活動。我們確實還沒有看到任何重大後果。我的意思是，你在夏季的飲料領域會更多地看到這種情況。但實際上，我的意思是——到處都有一些促銷活動，但沒有任何活動足夠普遍，以至於我們指出這對我們的銷量前景產生了實質性影響。

I mean it would be great if it happens. That would be upside. We're certainly not banking on increased promotional activity leading to higher volumes for Amcor. If it happens, as I said, it would be great. And the pricing dynamic is, as we've discussed on this call, I mean, there's continued inflation recovery that's necessary. And while it's moderating, it's still a fact of life that we've got to recover continued inflation through our cost base, and that's what we're busy doing.

我的意思是，如果它發生那就太好了。那會有好處。我們當然不會指望增加促銷活動會導致 Amcor 銷量增加。如果它發生，正如我所說，那就太好了。正如我們在這次電話會議中討論的那樣，定價動態是，通脹持續復甦是必要的。儘管通脹正在放緩，但我們必須通過成本基礎來恢復持續的通脹，這仍然是一個不爭的事實，而這正是我們正在忙著做的事情。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ron Delia for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉給羅恩·迪莉婭（Ron Delia）做總結髮言。

Thanks, operator, and thanks for everyone's interest in Amcor and for joining our call today. We appreciate it, and we'll speak to you at the end of the first quarter. And we'll end the call there. Thank you.

感謝接線員，感謝大家對 Amcor 的興趣並感謝今天加入我們的電話會議。我們對此表示感謝，我們將在第一季度末與您聯繫。我們將在那裡結束通話。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our -- today's call. Please disconnect.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。請斷開連接。