Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amcor Half Year 2023 Results. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到 Amcor 2023 年半年業績。今天的通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Tracey Whitehead。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. And thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's Fiscal '23 First Half Earnings Call. Joining today is Ron Delia, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。感謝大家參加 Amcor 的 23 財年上半年收益電話會議。今天加入的是首席執行官 Ron Delia；首席財務官 Michael Casamento。

Before I hand over, let me note a few items. On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we'll discuss on the call. Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and related reconciliations can be found in the press release and the presentation.

在我移交之前，讓我記下一些事項。在我們的網站 amcor.com 的“投資者”部分下，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和演示文稿，我們將在電話會議上對此進行討論。請注意，我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務措施，相關調節可在新聞稿和演示文稿中找到。

Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. And reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q, for further details.

備註還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述。今天演示文稿中的第二張幻燈片列出了可能導致未來結果與當前估計不同的幾個因素。可以參考 Amcor 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表格上的聲明，以獲取更多詳細信息。

(Operator Instructions) With that, over to you, Ron.

（操作員說明）羅恩，交給你了。

Thanks, Tracey. And thanks, everyone, for joining Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's first half financial results for fiscal 2023. We'll begin with some prepared remarks before opening for Q&A.

謝謝，特蕾西。感謝大家今天與邁克爾和我一起討論 Amcor 2023 財年上半年的財務業績。在開始問答環節之前，我們將從一些準備好的評論開始。

And I'll start with Slide 3, which covers our first and most important value, safety. Safety is deeply embedded in Amcor's culture, and our management teams understand our collective responsibility to provide a safe and healthy working environment. Our dedication to eliminating injuries in the workplace continues to result in industry-leading metrics.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始，它涵蓋了我們的第一個也是最重要的價值——安全。安全深深植根於 Amcor 的文化中，我們的管理團隊了解我們共同的責任，即提供安全和健康的工作環境。我們致力於消除工作場所的傷害，繼續取得行業領先的指標。

In our first half, we improved further and made great progress with a 24% reduction in the number of injuries globally compared to last year. And 65% of our global sites have been injury-free for the past 12 months, with more than 30% injury-free for 3 years or more.

上半年，我們進一步改進並取得了長足進步，與去年相比，全球受傷人數減少了 24%。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們全球 65% 的工廠都沒有受傷，超過 30% 的工廠在 3 年或更長時間裡沒有受傷。

Safety and a culture of caring for our people will always be our highest priority.

安全和關愛員工的文化永遠是我們的重中之重。

Turning to our key messages for today on Slide 4. First, the business delivered a strong first half and second quarter despite ongoing challenges in the macroeconomic environment. Our teams are doing an excellent job driving value for customers while managing the many aspects of the business under their control. We've increased our focus on flexing costs as demand evolved, and we're proactively taking actions to drive further efficiency and productivity improvements while recovering general inflation and passing through higher raw material costs. The outcome was strong operating leverage, with an 8% increase in both EBIT and adjusted EPS in the first half on a comparable constant currency basis.

轉向我們今天在幻燈片 4 上的關鍵信息。首先，儘管宏觀經濟環境持續面臨挑戰，但該業務在上半年和第二季度表現強勁。我們的團隊在為客戶創造價值方面做得非常出色，同時在他們的控制下管理業務的許多方面。隨著需求的變化，我們更加關注彈性成本，我們正在積極採取行動進一步提高效率和生產力，同時恢復普遍的通貨膨脹並轉嫁更高的原材料成本。結果是強大的經營槓桿，上半年息稅前利潤和調整後的每股收益在可比的固定貨幣基礎上均增長了 8%。

Second, although not entirely immune in a weakening demand environment, our business remains resilient. 95% of our portfolio is exposed to consumer staples and health care end markets which, combined with our broad geographic footprint, positions us well through economic cycles. Our volume performance through the first half demonstrates that resilience and compares favorably to the mid-single-digit or higher declines reported by others in our value chain.

其次，雖然在需求疲軟的環境中並非完全免疫，但我們的業務仍然具有彈性。我們 95% 的投資組合涉及消費必需品和醫療保健終端市場，再加上我們廣泛的地理足跡，使我們在經濟周期中處於有利地位。我們上半年的銷量表現證明了這種彈性，並且與我們價值鏈中其他公司報告的中等個位數或更高的跌幅相比是有利的。

Third, a solid first half, strong execution and a resilient portfolio gives us the confidence to reaffirm our guidance ranges for fiscal '23. We're confident in the ability of our teams to continue focusing on the controllables. However, we're also mindful that, through the second quarter, the demand environment softened and became increasingly volatile. We expect this will continue in the near term. And as we enter the second half of the fiscal year, we're more cautious in relation to the demand outlook, and we currently expect to be toward the lower end of our EPS guidance range.

第三，穩健的上半年、強勁的執行力和富有彈性的投資組合使我們有信心重申我們對 23 財年的指導範圍。我們對我們團隊繼續專注於可控因素的能力充滿信心。然而，我們也注意到，在整個第二季度，需求環境疲軟並變得越來越不穩定。我們預計這種情況將在短期內持續下去。隨著我們進入本財年的下半年，我們對需求前景更加謹慎，我們目前預計將接近每股收益指導範圍的低端。

And our final and most important key message is that we remain focused on executing against our strategy for long-term growth. The business generates significant annual cash flow, which allows us to invest in organic growth opportunities, pursue acquisitions, pay an attractive and growing dividend and regularly repurchase shares. We're confident in the strength of our underlying business, execution capabilities and capital allocation framework, all of which support our compelling investment case.

我們最後也是最重要的關鍵信息是，我們仍然專注於執行我們的長期增長戰略。該業務產生可觀的年度現金流，這使我們能夠投資有機增長機會、進行收購、支付有吸引力且不斷增長的股息並定期回購股票。我們對我們的基礎業務、執行能力和資本配置框架的實力充滿信心，所有這些都支持我們令人信服的投資案例。

Moving to a few financial highlights on Slide 5. First half reported net sales were up 6%, which includes approximately $670 million of price increases related to higher raw material costs. Excluding this impact, organic sales were up 2% on a constant currency basis, and volumes were 1% lower.

轉到幻燈片 5 上的一些財務亮點。上半年報告的淨銷售額增長了 6%，其中包括與原材料成本上漲相關的約 6.7 億美元的價格上漲。排除這一影響，有機銷售額按固定匯率計算增長 2%，銷量下降 1%。

Both the Flexibles and Rigid segments did an excellent job driving price and mix benefits, including recovering around $160 million of general inflation. We're making good progress on our commercial and strategic agenda and, with our priority segments, continuing to deliver high single-digit organic growth and several of our emerging markets businesses also growing at high single-digit rates in line with long-term trends.

柔性和剛性部分都在推動價格和混合收益方面做得非常出色，包括恢復了大約 1.6 億美元的一般通貨膨脹。我們在商業和戰略議程上取得了良好進展，並且在我們的優先領域繼續實現高單位數的有機增長，我們的一些新興市場業務也以高單位數的速度增長，符合長期趨勢.

Positive price/mix performance more than offset modestly lower overall volumes, which reflected generally softer and more volatile demand as well as customer destocking in parts of the business. Operating leverage was strong as we continue to increase our focus on costs, and the business delivered an 8% increase in both adjusted EBIT and EPS for the first half.

積極的價格/組合表現足以抵消整體銷量的適度下降，這反映出需求普遍疲軟和波動更大，以及部分業務的客戶去庫存。由於我們繼續加大對成本的關注，經營槓桿作用強勁，上半年調整後的息稅前利潤和每股收益均增長了 8%。

Looking at our December quarter financial performance. Reported net sales growth was 4% and 1% on an organic basis, adjusted EBIT and EPS each grew 7%, so another solid quarter highlighting the benefits of geographic diversification and exposure to more defensive end markets even as we experienced softer demand.

看看我們 12 月季度的財務業績。報告的淨銷售額有機增長分別為 4% 和 1%，調整後的息稅前利潤和每股收益分別增長 7%，這是一個穩健的季度，凸顯了地域多元化的好處，以及即使我們經歷了疲軟的需求，也能接觸到更具防禦性的終端市場。

Through the first half, Amcor returned approximately $400 million of cash to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. And today, we've increased our planned repurchases for fiscal '23 by up to $100 million. Our overall financial profile remains robust with return on average funds employed at 17%.

上半年，Amcor 通過派息和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還了約 4 億美元的現金。今天，我們將 23 財年的計劃回購增加了多達 1 億美元。我們的整體財務狀況保持穩健，平均使用資金回報率為 17%。

We're pleased with our first half and our December quarter financial performance, and I'll now turn it over to Michael to cover more of the specifics.

我們對上半年和 12 月季度的財務業績感到滿意，現在我將把它交給邁克爾來介紹更多細節。

Thanks, Ron. And beginning with the Flexibles segment on Slide 6. The business performed well in the face of challenging macroeconomic conditions, executing to recover higher raw material costs, manage general inflation, improve cost performance and deliver solid mix benefits. Reported first half sales grew 5%, which included recovery of higher raw material costs of approximately $460 million, representing 9% of growth.

謝謝，羅恩。從幻燈片 6 的柔性材料部分開始。該業務在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟條件下表現良好，執行以收回較高的原材料成本，管理一般通貨膨脹，提高成本績效並提供穩固的組合收益。報告的上半年銷售額增長 5%，其中包括回收較高的原材料成本約 4.6 億美元，佔增長的 9%。

Our teams continue to do an excellent job passing on increases in commodity costs. And as expected, the related price-cost impact on earnings for the second quarter was modestly positive after being neutral in Q1. Excluding the raw material impact and negative currency movements, sales grew 3% for both the first half and December quarter driven by favorable price/mix benefits of 4%, partly offset by modestly lower volumes.

我們的團隊繼續出色地轉嫁商品成本的增加。正如預期的那樣，相關價格成本對第二季度收益的影響在第一季度保持中性之後略有上升。排除原材料影響和不利的貨幣變動，上半年和 12 月季度的銷售額均增長 3%，這得益於 4% 的有利價格/組合收益，部分被銷量小幅下降所抵消。

As Ron mentioned, sales across our higher-value priority segments, which include health care, pet care and protein, remained strong, collectively growing at high single-digit rates through the first half and contributing to positive price/mix.

正如 Ron 所提到的，我們的高價值優先領域（包括醫療保健、寵物護理和蛋白質）的銷售額依然強勁，上半年整體以高個位數的速度增長，並為積極的價格/組合做出了貢獻。

We also continued to see strong growth in our businesses in India and Southeast Asia, particularly in health care and media end markets. This helped limit the impact of lower volumes in some business units across categories, including coffee, dairy, condiments, confectionery and home and personal care where we have seen varying degrees of customer destocking or lower demand. Volumes were lower in China due to COVID-related lockdowns and in Latin America where inflationary pressures unfavorably impacted demand in several countries.

我們在印度和東南亞的業務也繼續保持強勁增長，尤其是在醫療保健和媒體終端市場。這有助於限制某些業務部門銷量下降的影響，包括咖啡、乳製品、調味品、糖果以及家庭和個人護理，我們已經看到不同程度的客戶去庫存或需求下降。由於與 COVID 相關的封鎖，中國的銷量較低，而在拉丁美洲，通脹壓力對多個國家的需求產生了不利影響。

In terms of earnings for Flexibles, we again demonstrated strong operating leverage. Adjusted EBIT of 8% for the half reflects ongoing price/mix benefits and favorable cost performance. Margins remained strong at 12.6% despite the 120 basis point dilution related to increased sales dollars associated with passing through higher raw material costs.

在 Flexibles 的收益方面，我們再次展示了強大的運營槓桿。 8% 的調整後息稅前利潤反映了持續的價格/組合優勢和有利的成本效益。利潤率仍然保持在 12.6% 的強勁水平，儘管與轉嫁更高的原材料成本相關的銷售額增加導致 120 個基點的稀釋。

Turning to Rigid Packaging on Slide 7. The business built on its first quarter performance with another quarter of solid earnings growth. First half sales increased by 12% on a reported basis, which included approximately $210 million or 13% of sales related to the pass-through of higher raw material costs. Organic sales declined by 1% for the half, reflecting 2% lower volumes, partly offset by a 1% price/mix benefit.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的剛性包裝。該業務建立在其第一季度業績的基礎上，又一個季度實現了穩健的收益增長。根據報告，上半年銷售額增長了 12%，其中包括與原材料成本上漲相關的約 2.1 億美元或 13% 的銷售額。上半年有機銷售額下降 1%，反映出銷量下降 2%，部分被 1% 的價格/組合收益所抵消。

Looking at the December quarter, overall volumes declined by 5%, with the beverage business in North America and Latin America impacted by lower consumer demand and customer destocking. In North America, first half beverage volumes were down 5%. This included hot fill container volumes, which increased 2% in the half but were down 2% in the December quarter, which was in line with market. Cold fill volumes were lower in the half and quarter due to a combination of lower consumer demand and customer destocking. In Latin America, volumes were marginally higher for the first half with growth in Mexico and Argentina offset by lower volumes in Brazil. Consistent with what we saw in the Flexibles segment, the December quarter was unfavorably impacted by softer consumer demand in the region.

從 12 月季度來看，整體銷量下降了 5%，北美和拉丁美洲的飲料業務受到消費者需求下降和客戶去庫存的影響。在北美，上半年飲料銷量下降了 5%。這包括熱灌裝容器銷量，上半年增長 2%，但在 12 月季度下降 2%，與市場一致。由於消費者需求下降和客戶去庫存，冷灌裝量在本季度和本季度均有所下降。在拉丁美洲，上半年銷量略有增加，墨西哥和阿根廷的增長被巴西銷量下降所抵消。與我們在 Flexibles 部門看到的情況一致，12 月季度受到該地區消費者需求疲軟的不利影響。

The Specialty Containers business delivered good performance with solid volume growth from health care, dairy and nutrition end markets. And overall adjusted EBIT for the Rigid segment in the first half increased 7% on a comparable constant currency basis, with our teams being able to adjust to evolving market conditions and improve operating cost performance.

特種容器業務表現良好，醫療保健、乳製品和營養品終端市場的銷量穩步增長。上半年剛性部分的整體調整後息稅前利潤在可比的固定貨幣基礎上增長了 7%，我們的團隊能夠適應不斷變化的市場條件並提高運營成本績效。

Moving to cash on the balance sheet on Slide 8. We had a strong sequential improvement in adjusted free cash flow, which came in at $338 million for the December quarter, in line with last year. For the half year, cash outflow of $61 million was lower than last year, largely reflecting the unfavorable impact on the working capital cycle related to higher levels of inventory and higher raw material costs. These impacts also make our cash flow seasonality, which is typically weighted to the second half of the year, more pronounced for fiscal '23.

在幻燈片 8 的資產負債表上轉為現金。我們在調整後的自由現金流方面有強勁的環比改善，與去年同期相比，12 月季度的自由現金流為 3.38 億美元。上半年，現金流出為 6100 萬美元，低於去年，這主要反映了與較高庫存水平和較高原材料成本相關的營運資金周期的不利影響。這些影響還使我們的現金流季節性（通常加權到下半年）在 23 財年更加明顯。

Our financial profile remains strong with leverage at 2.8x on a trailing 12-month EBITDA basis. This is in line with our expectations for this time of year given the seasonality of cash flows and the receipt of proceeds from the Russia business sale. We repurchased $40 million worth of shares in the December quarter and expect to repurchase up to $500 million in total through the 2023 fiscal year.

我們的財務狀況依然強勁，過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 槓桿率為 2.8 倍。考慮到現金流的季節性和俄羅斯業務出售的收益，這符合我們對一年中這個時候的預期。我們在 12 月季度回購了價值 4000 萬美元的股票，預計到 2023 財年回購總額高達 5 億美元。

Prior to turning to our outlook, I wanted to provide a few more comments about the completed sale of our Russian business. We received sale proceeds of $365 million, in addition to $65 million of cash which was repatriated upon completion.

在談到我們的前景之前，我想就我們俄羅斯業務的完成出售提供更多評論。我們收到了 3.65 億美元的銷售收益，以及完成後返還的 6500 萬美元現金。

In terms of the use of total proceeds received, we expect to do 3 things. First, we will invest approximately $120 million in a range of cost-saving initiatives across the business to partly offset divested earnings. This is in addition to approximately $50 million of cash we allocated back in August for similar initiatives. Second, we plan to allocate up to $100 million for additional share repurchases. And finally, the balance is expected to be used to reduce net debt in proportion with divested EBITDA, maintaining our leverage ratio.

就收到的總收益使用而言，我們希望做三件事。首先，我們將投資約 1.2 億美元用於整個企業的一系列成本節約計劃，以部分抵消剝離的收益。這是我們在 8 月份為類似計劃分配的大約 5000 萬美元現金之外的補充。其次，我們計劃撥出最多 1 億美元用於額外的股票回購。最後，餘額預計將用於減少與剝離的 EBITDA 成比例的淨債務，從而維持我們的槓桿率。

Taking us to the outlook on Slide 9. We are maintaining our guidance range for adjusted EPS of $0.77 to $0.81 per share, assuming current foreign exchange rates prevail through the balance of the year. As Ron mentioned, while we are taking aggressive action now to flex the cost base across the business, we expect the environment will remain volatile in the near term. And entering the second half of the fiscal year, we are more cautious in relation to the demand outlook and currently expect to be toward the lower end of our EPS guidance range.

帶我們進入幻燈片 9 的展望。我們將調整後每股收益的指導範圍維持在 0.77 美元至 0.81 美元之間，假設當前匯率在今年餘下時間占主導地位。正如 Ron 所提到的，雖然我們現在正在採取積極行動來降低整個企業的成本基礎，但我們預計短期內環境仍將不穩定。進入本財年下半年，我們對需求前景更加謹慎，目前預計將接近我們 EPS 指導範圍的下限。

Our earnings bridge on this slide lays out the elements underlying our expectations. We expect earnings growth of approximately 3% to 8% on a comparable constant currency basis to be comprised of approximately 5% to 10% growth from the underlying business and a benefit of approximately 2% from share repurchases. This will be partly offset by a negative impact of approximately 4% related to higher estimated interest and tax expense.

我們在這張幻燈片上的收益橋列出了我們預期的要素。我們預計，在可比的固定貨幣基礎上，盈利增長約 3% 至 8%，其中基礎業務增長約 5% 至 10%，股票回購帶來約 2% 的收益。這將被與估計利息和稅收費用增加相關的約 4% 的負面影響部分抵消。

Our effective tax rate for 2023 is expected to be lower than last year, in the 18% to 19% range. However, the year-over-year benefit this provides is more than offset by higher interest expense.

我們預計 2023 年的有效稅率將低於去年，在 18% 至 19% 的範圍內。然而，這提供的同比收益被更高的利息支出所抵消。

Now that we have clarity on the timing of the sale, we expect a negative impact of approximately 3% related to the divestiture of our 3 plants in Russia. In addition, the U.S. dollar has weakened since our last update, and we now expect a negative impact of approximately 4% from currency translation movements.

現在我們已經清楚了出售的時間，我們預計與剝離我們在俄羅斯的 3 家工廠相關的負面影響約為 3%。此外，自我們上次更新以來美元走弱，我們現在預計貨幣換算變動將產生約 4% 的負面影響。

We are also reaffirming our adjusted free cash flow range for the year of $1 billion to $1.1 billion, although likely towards the lower end of the range, as noted on last quarter's call.

我們還重申了我們今年調整後的自由現金流量範圍為 10 億美元至 11 億美元，儘管可能接近該範圍的下限，如上一季度的電話會議所述。

So in summary from me today, the business has delivered another solid result, and we remain focused on supporting our customers and taking actions to continue recovering inflation and flex the cost base. Balancing these priorities will leave our business well positioned as we navigate through higher-than-usual volatility in demand and macroeconomic challenges in the near term.

因此，今天總結一下，該業務取得了另一個可喜的成果，我們仍然專注於支持我們的客戶並採取行動繼續恢復通貨膨脹並調整成本基礎。平衡這些優先事項將使我們的業務處於有利地位，因為我們在短期內應對高於往常的需求波動和宏觀經濟挑戰。

With that, I'll hand back to Ron.

有了這個，我會交還給羅恩。

Thank you, Michael. And in previous quarters, we've highlighted multiple drivers of organic growth, which you see on Slide 10, and include priority segments, emerging markets and innovation. Before we open the line to questions, I want to just take a few minutes to talk about one of our most important priority segments, which is health care.

謝謝你，邁克爾。在前幾個季度，我們強調了有機增長的多個驅動因素，如幻燈片 10 所示，包括優先領域、新興市場和創新。在我們開始提問之前，我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們最重要的優先領域之一，即醫療保健。

An overview of our global health care packaging business is shown on Slide 11. With more than $1.8 billion in annual sales in fiscal '22, our portfolio covers both Flexible and Rigid Packaging formats and is evenly split between medical device and pharmaceutical packaging. This is a truly global business with global customers and globally recognized products and technology platforms and it's one where we have scale in every region, including in emerging markets.

幻燈片 11 顯示了我們全球醫療保健包裝業務的概覽。我們的產品組合在 22 財年的年銷售額超過 18 億美元，涵蓋軟包裝和硬包裝格式，並且在醫療設備和藥品包裝之間平均分配。這是一項真正的全球業務，擁有全球客戶和全球認可的產品和技術平台，我們在每個地區（包括新興市場）都有規模。

This is not an easy market to enter because health care packaging is also highly complex with many functional demands, quality standards and regulatory requirements. This complexity provides ample opportunities to differentiate and add value through our industry-leading product innovation, material science and global regulatory capabilities and makes health care a strong contributor to Amcor's growth profile from both a volume and mix standpoint. It also supports strong collaboration with customers, leading to a book of business that tends to be more consistent over the medium and longer term.

這不是一個容易進入的市場，因為醫療保健包裝也非常複雜，具有許多功能需求、質量標準和法規要求。這種複雜性為通過我們行業領先的產品創新、材料科學和全球監管能力來實現差異化和增值提供了充足的機會，並使醫療保健從數量和組合的角度來看成為 Amcor 增長的重要貢獻者。它還支持與客戶的緊密合作，從而使業務在中長期內趨於更加一致。

Moving to Slide 12. Globally, health care packaging is a substantial market with significant headroom and growing at mid-single-digit rates over time, and we're investing to capture more of that growth. As an example, in the December quarter, we localized thermoforming production in Europe at our medical packaging site in Sligo, Ireland. This is an exciting project that leverage the experience and technical know-how of our sites in Minnesota and Puerto Rico. As a result, our European business and customer base will now benefit from local access to a broader range of specialized health care packaging solutions.

轉到幻燈片 12。在全球範圍內，醫療保健包裝是一個巨大的市場，具有很大的發展空間，並且隨著時間的推移以中個位數的速度增長，我們正在投資以獲取更多的增長。例如，在 12 月季度，我們在愛爾蘭斯萊戈的醫療包裝工廠將歐洲的熱成型生產本地化。這是一個激動人心的項目，它利用了我們在明尼蘇達州和波多黎各工廠的經驗和技術知識。因此，我們的歐洲業務和客戶群現在將從當地獲得更廣泛的專業醫療保健包裝解決方案中受益。

In another organic growth example, we opened a world-class dedicated health care greenfield plant in Singapore at the end of calendar 2021, enhancing our ability to serve the rapidly growing Asian market.

在另一個有機增長的例子中，我們於 2021 年底在新加坡開設了一家世界級的專用醫療保健綠地工廠，增強了我們服務快速增長的亞洲市場的能力。

M&A also plays a role in supplementing organic growth in this segment. A few weeks ago, we announced the acquisition of Shanghai-based MDK, a leading provider of medical device packaging in the China market. This is a great acquisition that enhances our leading position in the broader Asia Pacific medical packaging market by adding product capabilities and a complementary customer base.

併購還在該領域的有機增長中起到補充作用。幾週前，我們宣布收購總部位於上海的 MDK，這是中國市場領先的醫療器械包裝供應商。這是一次偉大的收購，通過增加產品能力和互補的客戶群，增強了我們在更廣泛的亞太醫療包裝市場的領先地位。

Drilling down a little more on sustainability and moving on to Slide 13. Across all substrates and end markets, the sustainability of packaging solutions continues to be a critical consideration for customers, consumers and regulators. Our collective objective is to create a truly circular economy for the packaging industry. And the solution is responsible packaging, including package design, infrastructure development and consumer participation.

深入探討可持續性並轉到幻燈片 13。在所有基材和終端市場中，包裝解決方案的可持續性仍然是客戶、消費者和監管機構的重要考慮因素。我們的共同目標是為包裝行業創造真正的循環經濟。解決方案是負責任的包裝，包括包裝設計、基礎設施開發和消費者參與。

In terms of package design, Amcor is well positioned as a leader in the industry. Today, nearly 100% of our rigid packaging and specialty cartons products and more than 80% of our flexibles products are designed to be recycled or have a recycle-ready alternative. This matters because as deadlines to meet previously established goals rapidly approach, customers are increasingly adopting more sustainable solutions.

在封裝設計方面，Amcor 處於行業領先地位。今天，我們近 100% 的硬包裝和特種紙箱產品以及超過 80% 的軟包裝產品都設計為可回收或有可回收的替代品。這一點很重要，因為隨著實現先前既定目標的最後期限迅速臨近，客戶越來越多地採用更具可持續性的解決方案。

As an example, this quarter, Mars adopted AmFiber performance paper for part of their confectionery range in the Australian market, and Ferrero Rocher launched an AmFiber pilot in the European market. These 2 companies joined Nestlé, who initiated a global transition to paper-based packaging for one of their core brands in 2022 and are now adding a pilot for the KitKat brand.

例如，本季度，Mars 在其澳大利亞市場的部分糖果系列中採用了 AmFiber 高性能紙，而 Ferrero Rocher 在歐洲市場推出了 AmFiber 試點。這兩家公司加入了雀巢，雀巢在 2022 年為其核心品牌之一啟動了向紙質包裝的全球過渡，現在正在為 KitKat 品牌增加一個試點。

We've also seen important progress in the development of the infrastructure and technology required to produce recycled materials. While the use of food-grade recycled PET is growing rapidly, including in our Rigid Packaging business, the ability to produce recycled content for and from flexible packaging will be a critical ingredient to creating circularity. Significant strides are being made in advanced recycling technologies, which enable use of recycled content and flexible packaging applications where mechanically recycled material may present regulatory or technical challenges.

我們還看到生產再生材料所需的基礎設施和技術的發展取得了重要進展。雖然食品級回收 PET 的使用正在迅速增長，包括在我們的硬包裝業務中，但為軟包裝生產回收內容的能力將是創造循環的關鍵因素。先進的回收技術正在取得重大進展，這些技術使回收內容和軟包裝應用成為可能，在這些應用中，機械回收材料可能會帶來監管或技術挑戰。

To meet ongoing demand for more recycled material and to support infrastructure and technology development, Amcor continues to increase our long-term offtake commitments. In December, we announced a 5-year extension of our partnership with ExxonMobil to purchase certified circular polyethylene, giving us line of sight to significant quantities of recycled material that can be used in health care and food-grade packaging applications.

為了滿足對更多回收材料的持續需求並支持基礎設施和技術開發，Amcor 繼續增加我們的長期承購承諾。 12 月，我們宣布將與埃克森美孚的合作夥伴關係延長 5 年，以購買經認證的循環聚乙烯，讓我們看到大量可用於醫療保健和食品級包裝應用的回收材料。

We also recently announced a partnership with Licella to further explore an investment in one of Australia's first advanced recycling facilities. These agreements provide another point of differentiation and value, which can be applied across all end markets for customers like Mondelez who've incorporated 30% advanced recycled material into their packaging for the Cadbury Dairy Milk brand in the U.K. and Australia. These capabilities also position Amcor to meet the sustainability goals we share with our customers and to contribute to a truly circular economy for the packaging industry.

我們最近還宣布與 Licella 建立合作夥伴關係，以進一步探索對澳大利亞首批先進回收設施之一的投資。這些協議提供了另一個差異化點和價值點，可以應用於像 Mondelez 這樣的客戶的所有終端市場，他們在英國和澳大利亞的 Cadbury Dairy Milk 品牌的包裝中加入了 30% 的先進回收材料。這些能力還使 Amcor 能夠實現我們與客戶共享的可持續發展目標，並為包裝行業的真正循環經濟做出貢獻。

Turning to Slide 14. The opportunities and investments I've outlined today in our health care business, our innovation across a range of substrates and our increasing access to advanced recycled materials are just a few examples of the initiatives we have underway, giving us confidence that we have built and continue to build a strong foundation for growth and value creation. We don't expect to be immune to macroeconomic challenges, but we believe we're well positioned with a resilient portfolio and multiple drivers of growth, including cost productivity. Additionally, our consistently strong cash flow provides the ability to reinvest in the business, to pursue acquisitions, repurchase shares and grow the dividend, all of which positions us well to generate strong and consistent value for shareholders over the long term.

轉到幻燈片 14。我今天在我們的醫療保健業務中概述的機會和投資、我們在一系列基材上的創新以及我們越來越多地獲得先進的回收材料只是我們正在進行的舉措的幾個例子，讓我們充滿信心我們已經建立並將繼續為增長和價值創造奠定堅實的基礎。我們預計無法免受宏觀經濟挑戰的影響，但我們相信我們處於有利地位，擁有富有彈性的投資組合和多種增長驅動因素，包括成本生產率。此外，我們持續強勁的現金流提供了對業務進行再投資、進行收購、回購股票和增加股息的能力，所有這些都使我們能夠長期為股東創造強大而穩定的價值。

And finally, in summary, on Slide 15, we've delivered a strong first half in a macroeconomic environment that remains challenging. We're more cautious on the demand environment entering the second half, but our portfolio leaves us well positioned. And most importantly, we remain focused on executing against our strategies for long-term growth.

最後，總而言之，在幻燈片 15 上，我們在仍然充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中表現強勁。我們對進入下半年的需求環境更加謹慎，但我們的投資組合讓我們處於有利地位。最重要的是，我們仍然專注於執行我們的長期增長戰略。

Operator, with those opening remarks, we're now ready to open the call to questions.

接線員，有了這些開場白，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們將從花旗的 Anthony Pettinari 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Ron, a lot of CPG companies and packagers have talked about a drop in December volumes but kind of a meaningful improvement and maybe a strong start in January. Just wondering, have you seen this? Or did you see kind of December weakness continue into January? I'm just trying to square what sounds like maybe a weaker view on fiscal second half demand. And then maybe specifically, you talked about restocking and lower demand for Rigids. I'm just wondering where you think restocking stands now.

羅恩，很多 CPG 公司和包裝商都談到 12 月份的銷量下降，但這是一個有意義的改善，也許 1 月份會有一個強勁的開端。只是想知道，你見過這個嗎？或者您是否看到 12 月的疲軟持續到 1 月？我只是想對聽起來像是對下半年財政需求的較弱看法進行調整。然後也許具體來說，你談到了補貨和降低對剛性的需求。我只是想知道你認為現在補貨的情況如何。

Yes. Sure. Thanks for the questions, Anthony. Look, maybe I'll just back up a step and talk about the chronology of volumes that we saw through the second quarter. Very much a mixed picture in October and November. Depending on the business and the geography, the story was relatively mixed. But across the business, our volumes were relatively flat in those 2 months. December, we definitely saw things soften. We had volumes across the group down mid-single-digits. I think that's a function of softening demand but also destocking in a number of segments. We know that because customers took more shutdowns than normal and longer shutdowns than normal. As we worked our way into January, we did see some improvement. I'm not sure that we would call it a trend, but we definitely saw some improvement in January, albeit mixed.

是的。當然。謝謝你的問題，安東尼。看，也許我會退後一步，談談我們在第二季度看到的捲的年表。 10 月和 11 月的情況喜憂參半。根據業務和地理位置的不同，故事相對複雜。但在整個業務中，我們的銷量在這兩個月里相對平穩。 12 月，我們確實看到情況有所緩和。我們整個集團的交易量下降了中個位數。我認為這是需求疲軟以及多個細分市場去庫存的結果。我們知道這是因為客戶停工時間比平時多，停工時間也比平時長。當我們努力進入 1 月時，我們確實看到了一些改進。我不確定我們是否會稱之為趨勢，但我們確實在 1 月份看到了一些改善，儘管好壞參半。

And so the word I would use with regard to our outlook is cautious, and it's caution around this demand outlook from here given the volatility, which really had swung quite considerably from month to month and almost week to week. I'd say that despite the improvements in January, we just remain cautious on the demand side of the equation.

因此，關於我們的前景，我要使用的詞是謹慎的，考慮到波動性，從這裡開始對需求前景持謹慎態度，波動性確實在每個月和幾乎每週都發生了相當大的波動。我要說的是，儘管 1 月份有所改善，但我們只是對等式的需求方面保持謹慎。

As it relates specifically to Rigids and destocking, I think it's clear there has been some destocking in the beverage segment in North America and also Latin America, to a certain extent. We have also seen demand soft generally. If you look at the scanner data for the quarter, the market generally in North America for beverages was down mid-single digits. We also know that our mix is more exposed to the convenience channel. Convenience store sales were down even further than the broader market. So I think that our volume performance in Rigids through the quarter is a function of a softer market, probably some destocking and then offset by some business wins that we picked up, particularly in the hot fill side. So that's the way we see it as it relates to volume.

由於它具體涉及剛性和去庫存，我認為很明顯北美和拉丁美洲的飲料領域在一定程度上存在一些去庫存。我們還看到需求普遍疲軟。如果您查看本季度的掃描儀數據，北美的飲料市場普遍下降了中個位數。我們也知道我們的組合更容易接觸到便利渠道。便利店銷售額的跌幅甚至超過大盤。因此，我認為本季度我們在 Rigids 的銷量表現是市場疲軟的結果，可能是一些去庫存，然後被我們獲得的一些業務勝利所抵消，特別是在熱灌裝方面。所以這就是我們看待它的方式，因為它與數量有關。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just in the release, I think you talked about maintaining the full year EPS and free cash flow guide. In your comments, you said you could be at the lower end. Without putting too fine a point on it, is there any reason not to sort of formally lower the guidance range? Or are there maybe circumstances that could get you maybe to the higher end of the guide? Is it just completely dependent on volumes? Or is there any way that we should think about getting to maybe the higher end or the lower end of the guide?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就在新聞稿中，我想你談到了維持全年每股收益和自由現金流指南。在您的評論中，您說您可能處於低端。沒有說得太細，有什麼理由不正式降低指導範圍？或者是否有可能讓您到達指南的更高端的情況？它完全取決於數量嗎？或者有什麼方法可以讓我們考慮達到指南的高端或低端？

Yes. Look, I think the primary reason for not changing the guidance is we have a half year left. We've got 2 quarters. We've got a relatively wide range when you consider that we've got 2 quarters left, and we've maintained the full width of the range. The swing factor really will be volumes. It really will come down to volume outlook for the second half. I think we also feel pretty good about the execution capabilities of the business and the ability to continue to take cost out, which was a real highlight for us in the first half. We believe we'll continue to do that in the second half. But the swing factor will be volumes.

是的。看，我認為不改變指南的主要原因是我們還有半年的時間。我們有 2 個季度。當您認為我們還剩下 2 個季度時，我們的範圍相對較寬，並且我們保持了範圍的整個寬度。真正的搖擺因素將是交易量。這真的會歸結為下半年的銷量前景。我認為我們對業務的執行能力和繼續降低成本的能力也感覺很好，這對我們上半年來說是一個真正的亮點。我們相信我們會在下半年繼續這樣做。但搖擺因素將是數量。

And what could lead us to the high end of the range? We could have low single-digit volume growth. We could get out front of raw materials as they come off at a faster pace than we're assuming, and a weaker U.S. dollar would help as well. And the inverse would be true for the lower end of the range.

什麼可以引導我們達到該範圍的高端？我們可能會有低個位數的銷量增長。我們可以擺脫原材料，因為它們以比我們假設更快的速度脫落，美元走軟也會有所幫助。對於範圍的下端，反之亦然。

I think it's also fair to say that at this point in the year, we have a wider range of demand outlook than we normally would or a wider range of possible scenarios for volume than we ordinarily would. Our view would be volumes could be anywhere from up a couple of points to down low single digits, and it's unusual for us to have a forecast that could include a decline in volumes.

我認為也可以公平地說，在今年的這個時候，我們的需求前景比往常更廣泛，或者可能的交易量情景比往常更廣泛。我們的觀點是，交易量可能會從上升幾個點到下降個位數，而且我們的預測可能包括交易量下降是不尋常的。

So for all those reasons, we've decided to express some caution here. But what we think, with 2 quarters left and with some strong cost performance that will continue into the second half, we thought it was prudent to maintain the range at this stage.

因此，出於所有這些原因，我們決定在這裡表達一些謹慎。但我們認為，由於還剩 2 個季度，並且一些強勁的性價比將持續到下半年，我們認為在現階段維持該範圍是謹慎的。

We'll take our next question from John Purtell with Macquarie Asset Management.

我們將接受來自麥格理資產管理公司的 John Purtell 的下一個問題。

Just in terms of price and mix, so that's been a benefit for you over a sort of long period of time. We saw that continue in this half with a 4% benefit in flexibles; and presumably health care, which you called out there, Ron, as sort of a key part of that. The question is sort of how you see that price/mix profiling through the second half. I mean would it be fair to say that you're expecting slightly less price and mix benefit in the second half relative to the first?

就價格和組合而言，這在很長一段時間內對你來說都是一個好處。我們看到這一趨勢在這半年繼續保持，柔性材料帶來 4% 的收益；羅恩，大概是醫療保健，這是其中的關鍵部分。問題是你如何看待下半年的價格/組合分析。我的意思是，相對於上半年，您預計下半年的價格和混合收益會略低一些，這公平嗎？

Yes, John, I can help you with that one. So you're right. The teams have done a good job on price and getting out there ahead of inflation and recovering that. And we commented in the half, we've recovered about $160 million in cost inflation during the period. But we also had really good mix benefits, particularly from the strong health care performance, particularly in the half, where we saw double-digit growth, which is above average growth for that part of the business and a bit of rebound versus the prior year.

是的，約翰，我可以幫你解決這個問題。所以你是對的。這些團隊在價格方面做得很好，並且在通貨膨脹之前就已經到達那裡並恢復了通貨膨脹。我們在一半評論說，我們在此期間收回了約 1.6 億美元的成本通脹。但我們也有非常好的組合收益，特別是來自強勁的醫療保健業績，尤其是在上半年，我們看到了兩位數的增長，高於該部分業務的平均增長，並且與上一年相比有所反彈.

So as we look forward into the second half, there will still be the price/mix benefit there. But inflation is still there. We've got to recover that. And on the health care side, comparatively, you're not going to see the same level of growth and, therefore, the mix benefit. So although we're still expecting that, we would say that it will be lower than what we saw in the first half.

因此，當我們展望下半年時，那裡仍然會有價格/組合優勢。但通貨膨脹仍然存在。我們必須恢復它。相比之下，在醫療保健方面，你不會看到相同水平的增長，因此也不會看到混合收益。因此，儘管我們仍然期待這一點，但我們會說它會低於我們上半年看到的水平。

We'll take our next question from George Staphos with Bank of America.

我們將從美國銀行的 George Staphos 那裡回答下一個問題。

My question for the call is on cost saves. Ron, you talked about aggressive actions. I forget exactly how you phrased it. But to obviously offset some of the headwinds that you're seeing, can you talk a bit further about what those actions are? Can you size them either in relation to, I don't know, the volume weakness that you're seeing or the ability to offset the dilution from Russia? And how can cost saves build into both calendar '23 and fiscal '24 to offset that further dilution you'll have from Russia, at least in the first half of the upcoming new year?

我的電話問題是節省成本。羅恩，你談到了攻擊性行為。我完全忘記你是怎麼說的了。但為了明顯抵消您所看到的一些不利因素，您能否進一步談談這些行動是什麼？你能否根據你所看到的體積弱點或抵消俄羅斯稀釋的能力來確定它們的大小？以及如何將成本節約納入 23 年日曆和 24 財年，以抵消俄羅斯的進一步稀釋，至少在即將到來的新年上半年？

Okay. Thanks, George. Look, let me respond to the question. Michael and I will respond to the question in 2 parts. I think there's the cost savings activities that we've been undertaking through the first half in the face of softer volumes and then there's the offsets to the divestment of the Russian earnings.

好的。謝謝，喬治。看，讓我回答這個問題。邁克爾和我將分兩部分回答這個問題。我認為，面對銷量下降，我們在上半年一直在進行成本節約活動，然後抵消了俄羅斯收益的剝離。

So look, we got out front, I think, very proactively and fairly aggressively on cost in the first half. I mean, I think the way to think about it is we had really strong operating leverage with 2% organic sales growth, really flat to minus 1% on the volume line, and we had 8% EBIT growth. And if you think about the drivers of that EBIT growth, price and mix sort of offset and we recovered inflation. And really, the profit growth was driven by cost-outs.

因此，我認為，上半年我們在成本方面非常主動和相當積極地走在了前面。我的意思是，我認為考慮它的方式是我們擁有非常強大的運營槓桿，有機銷售額增長 2%，在銷量線上持平至負 1%，我們的息稅前利潤增長 8%。如果你考慮一下息稅前利潤增長的驅動因素，價格和組合就會抵消，我們就會恢復通貨膨脹。實際上，利潤增長是由成本支出推動的。

And so where did the cost-outs come from? We did a really good job of flexing labor. We cut shifts. We reduced over time. Several hundred people are out of the business. There's a reasonably meaningful head count reduction across the business. We've also pulled the procurement lever pretty hard and cut back on discretionary spending. And we got out front early on those actions given the volatility that we saw and just reading the tea leaves from discussions with customers on the demand environment. Those initiatives, those actions will continue into the second half, and they underpin the outlook that we've reaffirmed today.

那麼成本支出從何而來？我們在彈性勞動力方面做得非常好。我們減少班次。隨著時間的推移，我們減少了。數百人失業。整個企業的裁員人數相當有意義。我們還非常努力地拉動採購槓桿並削減可自由支配的支出。鑑於我們看到的波動性以及從與客戶就需求環境進行的討論中閱讀茶葉，我們很早就採取了這些行動。這些舉措、這些行動將持續到下半年，它們鞏固了我們今天重申的前景。

I think Russia is almost a separate topic, if you will. And just to level set, Michael can talk about some of the specifics, but we had a business in Russia with 3 plants that represented about 2% to 3% of our sales and roughly 4% to 5% of our EBIT in any given year, so essentially, $80 million to $90 million of EBIT, which we've now divested. And we are resolute in trying to replace that EBIT as fast as we possibly can. And so with the proceeds exceeding our expectations, we generated a pretty healthy profit on the sale of the business as well. And then the proceeds of over $400 million, $430 million, as Michael alluded to, a bit ahead of our expectations, we think it's a good use of cash to reinvest in the business and take cost out, structural cost-out, to help offset the $80 million to $90 million of EBIT that we've divested.

我認為俄羅斯幾乎是一個單獨的話題，如果你願意的話。只是水平設置，Michael 可以談論一些細節，但我們在俄羅斯有一家公司，有 3 家工廠，在任何一年中占我們銷售額的 2% 到 3% 和息稅前利潤的大約 4% 到 5% ，所以基本上，我們現在已經剝離了 8000 萬到 9000 萬美元的息稅前利潤。我們決心盡快取代息稅前利潤。因此，由於收益超出了我們的預期，我們在出售業務時也獲得了相當可觀的利潤。然後收益超過 4 億美元，4.3 億美元，正如邁克爾提到的，略高於我們的預期，我們認為這是對現金進行再投資並削減成本、結構性成本支出以幫助抵消的一個很好的用途我們剝離的 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元的息稅前利潤。

And Michael, maybe you can talk a bit more about the financial profile of what we're planning to do.

邁克爾，也許你可以多談談我們計劃做的事情的財務狀況。

Sure. Thanks, Ron. Yes, I mean just following on from that, so we announced today we're going to use part of the proceeds to help offset the divested earnings. And we announced today around $120 million of cash will be put to work in cost-saving initiatives, things like footprint and SG&A and the like. And that's in addition to $50 million cash that we allocated back in August as well. So in total, about $170 million of cash is going to be invested in cost-out initiatives over the next kind of 12 to 18 months. And we'd expect to get kind of a 30% return on that at full run rate.

當然。謝謝，羅恩。是的，我的意思是緊隨其後，所以我們今天宣布，我們將使用部分收益來幫助抵消剝離的收益。我們今天宣布將投入約 1.2 億美元的現金用於節約成本的舉措，例如足跡和 SG&A 等。這還不包括我們在 8 月份分配的 5000 萬美元現金。因此，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，總共將有大約 1.7 億美元的現金投資於成本削減計劃。我們希望以全速運行獲得 30% 的回報。

But if you think about the timing of that, those initiatives, we'll start to work on those this financial year. So there is no upside factored into the guidance range in FY '23. But certainly, we're expecting benefits from this program in FY '24 and then into FY '25.

但如果你考慮一下這些舉措的時間安排，我們將在本財政年度開始著手實施這些舉措。因此，23 財年的指導範圍沒有上行因素。但可以肯定的是，我們期待在 24 財年和 25 財年從該計劃中受益。

And if you think about that, bear in mind, in H1, in FY '24, we will have a headwind. These programs will kick in but weighted more to the back end of the year. So on that $170 million investment, if you call a 30% return, it's roughly a $50 million potential impact to offset the Russia earnings. I would say that 2/3 of that we think we can achieve in FY '24. So over the course of FY '24, we feel that we can pretty much minimize any headwind from the Russia earnings in the first half of FY '23, and then you'll get the full run rate as we head into FY '25.

如果你考慮一下，請記住，在 24 財年的上半年，我們將遇到逆風。這些計劃將在今年年底開始實施，但權重更大。因此，對於這筆 1.7 億美元的投資，如果你稱之為 30% 的回報，那麼抵消俄羅斯收益的潛在影響大約為 5000 萬美元。我想說我們認為我們可以在 24 財年實現其中的 2/3。因此，在整個 24 財年期間，我們認為我們幾乎可以最大限度地減少 23 財年上半年俄羅斯收益帶來的任何不利因素，然後在我們進入 25 財年時你將獲得完整的運行率。

We'll take our next question from Larry Gandler with Credit Suisse.

我們將接受瑞士信貸拉里甘德勒的下一個問題。

I might as well just continue on that last comment. Can you just talk about some of the specifics about how to achieve that 30% return, $50 million savings from those Russia cost-saving actions? What are you guys doing there?

我不妨繼續最後的評論。您能否談談如何實現 30% 的回報，以及從俄羅斯的那些成本節約行動中節省 5000 萬美元的一些細節？你們在那裡做什麼？

Yes. As Michael alluded to, Larry, we're going to close some plants. And as we think about it and take some overheads out, if we think about this environment that we're in, with the demand backdrop being as uncertain as it is and the fact that we're also already increasing our CapEx to pursue growth, particularly in our priority segments, we feel like that's pretty well in trained.

是的。正如邁克爾提到的，拉里，我們將關閉一些工廠。當我們考慮並削減一些管理費用時，如果我們考慮我們所處的環境，需求背景如此不確定，而且我們也已經在增加資本支出以追求增長，特別是在我們的優先領域，我們覺得訓練有素。

So then the fastest way to generate earnings, to offset the divested earnings, is through cost reduction, and cost reduction in a structural sense, which means optimizing the footprint. And it's a business that we've got 220 plants around the world. There's always opportunities to optimize further, and so that's largely what we'll do. And as I said, we also will reduce overheads in parts of the business as well to rightsize the cost structure.

因此，產生收益、抵消剝離收益的最快方法是通過降低成本，並從結構意義上降低成本，這意味著優化足跡。這是我們在全球擁有 220 家工廠的業務。總是有進一步優化的機會，所以這主要是我們要做的。正如我所說，我們還將減少部分業務的管理費用，並調整成本結構。

Okay. That's pretty clear. And one other thing that caught my attention is you guys repurchased only $40 million of stock in the first half and then the target for $500 million now for the full year. So I'm just wondering, was there anything that kind of gave you some hesitancy in the first half? I'm interested if on the M&A pipeline, if you guys might have been looking at something that caused some hesitancy.

好的。這很清楚。另一件引起我注意的事情是，你們上半年只回購了 4000 萬美元的股票，而現在全年的目標是回購 5 億美元。所以我只是想知道，上半場有沒有什麼讓你有些猶豫的？如果在併購管道上，如果你們可能一直在尋找引起一些猶豫的東西，我很感興趣。

Well, look, Larry, I think ultimately, we started the buyback in Q2. We spent $40 million. If you think about the cash flows in the first half, we also invested in some M&A activities. So we acquired the plant in the Czech Republic. We spent a little more on APAC. And at the same time, we were managing the cash flow as we start to release some of the inventory that we built up on the back of supply chain constraints over the past 12 months. So we started to see that come out of the system toward the end of quarter 2, which gave us the ability to start to do the buyback.

好吧，拉里，我認為最終我們在第二季度開始回購。我們花了 4000 萬美元。如果你想想上半年的現金流，我們也投資了一些併購活動。所以我們收購了捷克共和國的工廠。我們在亞太地區投入了更多資金。與此同時，我們開始釋放過去 12 個月因供應鏈限製而積累的部分庫存，從而管理現金流。所以我們開始看到系統在第二季度末出現這種情況，這使我們有能力開始進行回購。

And then as we look forward into H2, as I mentioned in my comments, we'll see the cash flow more weighted to the second half, particularly as we start to get through the inventory and working capital impacts from that. In addition to that, you've got the proceeds from the Russia sale, which we're allocating $100 million to the buyback. So really, it was around the timing of the cash flow and just managing that through, and we can get the buyback done in the second half as we've done in the past. So we feel like we can get the $500 million done.

然後當我們展望下半年時，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們將看到下半年的現金流更加重要，特別是當我們開始解決庫存和營運資本的影響時。除此之外，您還獲得了俄羅斯銷售的收益，我們將撥款 1 億美元用於回購。所以真的，這是圍繞現金流的時間和管理它，我們可以像過去一樣在下半年完成回購。所以我們覺得我們可以完成 5 億美元。

We'll take our next question from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們將與 Baird 一起從 Ghansham Panjabi 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

I just want to go back to Anthony's question on the caution, Ron, you referenced. Can you elaborate on whether this is a caution on any specific region, between Europe and the U.S. and Latin America? Or is it just universal? I'm just trying to get a sense as to maybe some of just the moderation of volumes that we're seeing is really a function of perhaps just catching up over the last year or so from previously depleted inventories, and now we're just approaching a more normalization phase and an adjustment related to that.

我只想回到安東尼關於警告的問題，羅恩，你提到過。您能否詳細說明這是否是對歐洲、美國和拉丁美洲之間任何特定區域的警告？或者它只是通用的？我只是想了解一下，也許我們所看到的銷量放緩實際上是在過去一年左右的時間裡從之前耗盡的庫存中趕上來的功能，而現在我們只是接近更加正常化的階段以及與之相關的調整。

Yes. Look, I don't think we know the answer to that is a short response to your question. The caution is based on the volatility that we've seen in demand patterns globally. Now if we look specifically in the second quarter, it's more segment-specific in North America and Europe. And then we had some geographies where things got even more volatile as we went through the quarter, in particular, Latin America, where we saw some destocking but also just, we think, some softer demand in light of the deteriorating macroeconomic environment in several countries down there. China would be another one where we saw demand soften considerably in the second quarter, really concurrent with COVID lockdowns. Now obviously, those are behind us, so we'd expect the business to bounce back. But how strongly it bounces back is an open question.

是的。看，我不認為我們知道答案是對你的問題的簡短回答。這種謹慎是基於我們在全球需求模式中看到的波動性。現在，如果我們具體看第二季度，它在北美和歐洲的細分市場更為具體。然後我們有一些地區在整個季度中變得更加動盪，特別是拉丁美洲，我們看到一些去庫存，但我們認為，鑑於幾個國家不斷惡化的宏觀經濟環境，需求也有所減弱在下面。中國將是另一個我們看到第二季度需求大幅疲軟的國家，實際上與 COVID 封鎖同時發生。現在很明顯，那些都在我們身後，所以我們預計業務會反彈。但它反彈的強度有多大是一個懸而未決的問題。

And look, as far as the drivers of volume in the quarter and even into January, how much is related to the consumer pushing back on prices that have been put through versus how much is destocking, it's difficult to read. So generally speaking, there's been volatility across the business, and that adds up to a degree of caution on our part.

看看，就本季度乃至 1 月份的銷量驅動因素而言，有多少與消費者推回已經通過的價格有關，有多少與去庫存有關，這很難解讀。所以總的來說，整個行業都存在波動，這增加了我們的謹慎程度。

Okay. Understood. And then just given the increase in interest rates, I mean, obviously, it's a big headwind between fiscal year '23 and fiscal year '22 just for everybody, really, how are we thinking differently, if at all, in terms of allocating cash flow towards buybacks versus debt paydown?

好的。明白了。然後考慮到利率上升，我的意思是，很明顯，這對每個人來說都是 23 財年和 22 財年之間的一個很大的逆風，真的，我們在分配現金方面有什麼不同的想法，如果有的話流向回購還是償還債務？

Yes. Look, the interest rates where they are for us. The buyback still makes sense. It's EPS accretive. We have strong cash flows, and we've regularly been doing buybacks, and we'll continue to do that. Where the interest rates are, it still makes sense from that perspective.

是的。看，他們對我們的利率。回購仍然有意義。這是 EPS 增值。我們有強勁的現金流，我們一直在定期回購，我們將繼續這樣做。利率在哪裡，從這個角度來看仍然有意義。

We'll take our next question from Daniel Kang with CLSA.

我們將從 CLSA 的 Daniel Kang 那裡接受下一個問題。

Just interested on the impact of destocking. I know it's quite difficult to quantify. But can you estimate how much it contributed to the volume softness in both Flexibles and Rigids? Are you seeing any green shoots at this point in terms of the destocking cycle coming to an end? And just wondering what you're assuming in terms of destocking in your guidance.

只對去庫存的影響感興趣。我知道這很難量化。但是你能估計它對柔性材料和剛性材料的體積柔軟度有多大貢獻嗎？在去庫存週期即將結束的這一點上，你是否看到了任何綠芽？只是想知道您在指導中對去庫存的假設是什麼。

Look, Daniel, it's a difficult one to estimate. I mean I think you'd have to triangulate a few different data points. If you look at the scanner data and look at the results of other public companies that have reported, volumes were down considerably. And in light of those comparisons, our volume performance was actually good. We know anecdotally in certain segments, particularly in coffee, single-serve coffee in Europe, some of the dairy segments in the U.S., meat in Europe, we know, in some of those places, including Beverage and the Rigid Packaging segment, that there was excess inventory in the system. And we know that because customers took shutdowns in a way that they haven't in the past, meaning longer shutdowns.

看，丹尼爾，這很難估計。我的意思是我認為你必須對幾個不同的數據點進行三角測量。如果您查看掃描儀數據並查看已報告的其他上市公司的結果，就會發現交易量大幅下降。鑑於這些比較，我們的銷量表現實際上很好。我們知道在某些領域，特別是咖啡，歐洲的單杯咖啡，美國的一些乳製品領域，歐洲的肉類，我們知道，在其中一些地方，包括飲料和硬包裝領域，有是系統中的多餘庫存。我們知道，因為客戶以過去從未有過的方式停工，這意味著停工時間更長。

So it would be very hard to parse out the volume performance of the half. The volumes were down 1%. I think that probably compares favorably to the other external markers out there, but it would be really hard to parse that 1% in terms of what was destocking versus what is just a softening consumer environment given the price increases that have been put through in pretty much all segments and all regions.

所以很難解析出一半的體積性能。成交量下降了 1%。我認為這可能比那裡的其他外部指標要好，但考慮到價格上漲在相當長一段時間內實現的價格上漲，很難將這 1% 解釋為去庫存與疲軟的消費環境幾乎所有細分市場和所有地區。

We'll take our next question from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

我們將從高盛的 Adam Samuelson 那裡回答下一個問題。

I guess I want to come back to this question on mix. And Ron, earlier, you alluded to maybe health care, which has been a strong growth driver, moderating as we go into the back half of the year. Can you just maybe calibrate that a little bit more just in the context of broadly cautious kind of volume outlook, kind of when you see the health care business settling out? And kind of help us think about what happens into fiscal '24 as you start lapping some of the growth there.

我想我想回到關於混合的這個問題。羅恩，早些時候，你提到了醫療保健，它一直是一個強大的增長動力，隨著我們進入今年下半年而放緩。你能否在普遍謹慎的數量前景的背景下稍微校準一下，當你看到醫療保健業務安定下來時？當您開始在那裡實現一些增長時，可以幫助我們思考 24 財年會發生什麼。

Well, health care has been a good grower for us over many, many years. And both the medical packaging side and the pharmaceutical packaging side have grown kind of mid-single digits globally, obviously a bit higher in the emerging markets, and that's been consistent over a long period of time. I think we saw extraordinary growth in the first half coming off of actually quite a strong fiscal '22 as well.

好吧，多年來，醫療保健一直是我們的好種植者。醫療包裝方面和醫藥包裝方面在全球範圍內都實現了中等個位數的增長，在新興市場顯然更高一些，而且這種情況在很長一段時間內都是一致的。我認為我們在上半年也看到了非常強勁的 22 財年的非凡增長。

A few drivers there that we think have been fueling that growth, obviously, our market position is quite strong and the innovation that we've been bringing to the market is quite strong, and we're investing behind that as we've highlighted today. To be clear, there's been some pent-up demand because some of the supply chain constraints that we've talked about and others have talked about really hit the health care segments for us in a pretty acute way. Those are unwinding, and some of that pent-up demand is being satisfied. And I think it's also not a secret that on the pharmaceutical side, there's been a relatively big cold and flu season.

我們認為有一些驅動因素一直在推動這種增長，顯然，我們的市場地位非常穩固，我們為市場帶來的創新也非常強大，正如我們今天所強調的那樣，我們正在對其進行投資.需要明確的是，存在一些被壓抑的需求，因為我們已經討論過的和其他人已經討論過的一些供應鏈限制確實以非常尖銳的方式對我們的醫療保健領域產生了影響。這些正在放鬆，一些被壓抑的需求正在得到滿足。而且我認為在製藥方面，感冒和流感季節相對較大也不是什麼秘密。

So those are some of the things that really fuel double-digit growth globally across both the medical device and pharmaceutical segments for us in the first half, and we believe that the business will continue to grow at healthy rates but will revert more towards long-term trends that we've seen over a long period of time in the kind of mid-single-digit range, and that would apply going into FY '24 as well.

因此，這些是上半年真正推動我們在全球醫療器械和製藥領域實現兩位數增長的一些因素，我們相信該業務將繼續以健康的速度增長，但將更多地轉向長期-我們在很長一段時間內看到的中個位數範圍內的長期趨勢，這也適用於進入 24 財年。

Okay. That's helpful. And if I can just squeeze another one, in the context of maybe on the food and consumer goods side, a slowing demand and sort of destocking on the part of customers, have you seen their engagement on new products and new form factors for packaging change at all as bid activity or RFPs, maybe that kind of activity is different than 6 or 12 months ago?

好的。這很有幫助。如果我能再擠出一個，在食品和消費品方面，需求放緩和客戶去庫存的背景下，你是否看到他們對新產品和包裝變化的新形式因素的參與完全作為投標活動或 RFP，也許這種活動與 6 或 12 個月前不同？

No. If anything, it's accelerating, particularly around the sustainability side where many of the brand owners that we work closely with have the same commitments that we have and have made similar pledges around recyclability or recycled content. Those commitments are fast approaching; the dates are fast approaching. And if anything, we're seeing an acceleration in that dialogue.

沒有。如果有的話，它正在加速，特別是在可持續性方面，我們與之密切合作的許多品牌所有者都有與我們相同的承諾，並且在可回收性或回收內容方面做出了類似的承諾。這些承諾很快就會到來；日期快到了。如果有的話，我們看到對話正在加速。

And we're seeing good take-up. Some of the examples we cited today with our AmFiber performance paper platform, which is getting good take-up in the marketplace. We're seeing good early take-up of advanced recycled material and products that contain that offtake. And so look, I think at the moment, it's not slowed down at all. I think also good brand owners are looking for ways to differentiate as they try to scratch out whatever growth they can.

我們看到了很好的接受度。我們今天在 AmFiber 性能紙平台上引用的一些示例在市場上得到了很好的接受。我們看到先進的回收材料和包含這種材料的產品的早期使用情況良好。所以看，我認為目前，它根本沒有放慢速度。我認為優秀的品牌所有者也在尋找差異化的方法，因為他們試圖盡可能地實現增長。

We'll take our next question from Nathan Reilly with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起接受 Nathan Reilly 的下一個問題。

Ron, would you mind just talking about how the latest round of general price increases have been received by customers just given that lower demand outlook, particularly with those December volumes take us to more notable turndown? I'd imagine it's getting even harder to recover inflation on costs, but I also note your comment on managing manufacturing capacity. So just interested on any views on pricing.

羅恩，考慮到較低的需求前景，尤其是 12 月的銷量使我們出現更明顯的下滑，您是否介意談談客戶如何接受最新一輪的一般價格上漲？我想通過成本來恢復通貨膨脹會變得更加困難，但我也注意到你對管理製造能力的評論。所以只對定價的任何看法感興趣。

Yes. Look, I mean we've been at it now for a while. We put about $670-odd million of price into the market in the quarter just to recover higher raw material costs, another $160 million or so to recover general inflation. It's certainly not getting easier, but we are passing it through, and we're recovering. And I think you can see that in the margins. The margins have expanded. Excluding the dilution effect of the raw material prices going through the top line, the margins have continued to expand and not shrink. And I think it should give some confidence that we are out there recovering.

是的。看，我的意思是我們已經討論了一段時間了。我們在本季度向市場投放了大約 6.7 億美元的價格，只是為了收回更高的原材料成本，另外還有 1.6 億美元左右的價格來收回普遍的通貨膨脹。這當然不會變得更容易，但我們正在渡過難關，我們正在恢復。我想你可以在邊緣看到這一點。邊際擴大了。剔除原材料價格衝上頂線的稀釋效應，利潤率繼續擴大而不是縮小。我認為這應該會給我們一些信心，讓我們相信我們正在恢復。

It doesn't mean that the conversations are getting easier. I think the consumers are probably starting to get a bit tired. Elasticities, if they haven't already, are likely to increase. I think that's what we're hearing from most of our brand owner customers. But at this stage, we're still recovering, and we expect to continue to fully recover our inflationary costs in the second half.

這並不意味著對話變得更容易了。我認為消費者可能開始有點累了。彈性，如果還沒有的話，很可能會增加。我認為這是我們從大多數品牌所有者客戶那裡聽到的。但在現階段，我們仍在復蘇，我們預計下半年將繼續完全收回我們的通脹成本。

Our next question comes from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Ron, Mike, appreciate taking the question. Just first one, just on the $120 million in cost takeout in SG&A removal, Ron, can you comment on what regions you're looking at and whether there are any particular end markets that you're looking to restructure? And just quickly, on your Asian business, especially with China eliminating its COVID restrictions, have you seen any type of improvement recently in the volumes there? And was that a fact you considered in your recent MDK acquisition?

羅恩，邁克，很高興接受這個問題。只是第一個，關於 SG&A 移除的 1.2 億美元成本支出，羅恩，你能評論一下你正在關注的地區以及是否有任何特定的終端市場你正在尋求重組？很快，在您的亞洲業務中，尤其是在中國取消其 COVID 限制的情況下，您最近是否看到那裡的業務量有任何類型的改善？您在最近的 MDK 收購中是否考慮了這一事實？

Maybe I'll address the second question first, and then Michael can come back on the $120 million. Look, it's relatively recent that China has reopened and then we went into the Chinese New Year in January. But we do expect that business to bounce back. More importantly, the China business has done an outstanding job managing costs. So despite the volume declines that ran alongside the COVID lockdowns, the business grew earnings in the first half, which was just an outstanding outcome. It's been a business for us that has grown at least mid- to high single digits over many years. What's really important in China is to be very focused in our participation strategies.

也許我會先解決第二個問題，然後邁克爾才能拿回 1.2 億美元。看，中國重新開放是相對較新的，然後我們在 1 月份進入了農曆新年。但我們確實希望該業務能夠反彈。更重要的是，中國業務在成本管理方面做得非常出色。因此，儘管 COVID 封鎖導致銷量下降，但該業務在上半年實現了收益增長，這是一個出色的結果。對我們來說，這是一項多年來至少以中高個位數增長的業務。在中國真正重要的是非常專注於我們的參與策略。

Health care is a place we want to participate, and we want to go deeper in China. And we're doing that both organically, and we're doing that through M&A. And the MDK acquisition that we announced last month is a good example of that. It's a small business, one plant outside of Shanghai, complements very well another medical packaging plant that we have near Shanghai as well. It brings us some complementary products that we didn't have local production of in China, and it also expands our book of business with a new set of customers. So we're pretty excited about that, and we think that's all part of the long-term secular growth that we've experienced and will continue to experience in China.

醫療保健是我們想參與的地方，我們想深入中國。我們正在有機地做到這一點，我們正在通過併購來做到這一點。我們上個月宣布的 MDK 收購就是一個很好的例子。這是一家小型企業，一家位於上海以外的工廠，與我們在上海附近擁有的另一家醫療包裝工廠相得益彰。它為我們帶來了一些我們在中國沒有本地生產的互補產品，它還擴大了我們與一組新客戶的業務範圍。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，我們認為這是我們在中國經歷並將繼續經歷的長期長期增長的一部分。

On the $120 million, do you want to comment on where we are at that?

關於 1.2 億美元，你想評論我們在那個地方的位置嗎？

Yes. So look the $120 million, I mean we see opportunities across the business. As Ron mentioned, there's under 220 plants around the globe. It's going to be focused on taking some plants out of the network and as well as SG&A opportunities to rightsize the business. So there is some focus in Europe. But generally speaking, we'll see opportunities across the globe. So that's to come.

是的。所以看看 1.2 億美元，我的意思是我們看到了整個行業的機會。正如羅恩提到的，全球有不到 220 家工廠。它將專注於將一些工廠從網絡中移除，以及 SG&A 機會以調整業務規模。因此，歐洲有一些重點。但總的來說，我們會在全球範圍內看到機會。所以這就是未來。

Wherever we can find EBIT to offset the EBIT that we've sold is where we'll be looking.

只要我們能找到 EBIT 來抵消我們已售出的 EBIT，我們就會去尋找。

We'll take our next question from Jakob Cakarnis with Jarden Australia.

我們將與 Jarden Australia 一起接受 Jakob Cakarnis 的下一個問題。

Michael, just a question for you. I was just wondering if you could talk through some of the fixed variable cost structures across both of the divisions. And just noting you did talk about some plant downtime, which is a little bit higher than expected, can you just talk about how that's flowed through to some of the cost benefits in the half, whether that will occur into the second half of the year if the volume environment remains weak?

邁克爾，只是問你一個問題。我只是想知道你是否可以談談這兩個部門的一些固定可變成本結構。只是注意到你確實談到了一些工廠停機時間，這比預期的要高一點，你能談談這如何影響到下半年的一些成本效益嗎，這是否會發生在下半年成交量環境是否依然疲軟？

Yes. I think you got to think about it in the context of just our cost of goods and the breakup of the cost of goods where we focused on taking some of that cost out. Of our COGS, about 60% to 70% of it is the raw material. You then get into labor, which is around that 10% to 15% and then things like energy and freight. So where we really focused was around just managing the labor in the half, particularly flexing downtime to match our customers where they were down, managing the overtime to take that out as well.

是的。我認為你必須在我們的商品成本和商品成本分解的背景下考慮它，我們專注於減少部分成本。在我們的 COGS 中，大約 60% 到 70% 是原材料。然後你開始分娩，大約是 10% 到 15%，然後是能源和貨運。因此，我們真正關注的重點是管理一半的勞動力，特別是靈活的停機時間以適應我們客戶的停機時間，管理加班時間以消除這種情況。

So if anything, we've recovered inflation, we talked about that, the $160 million. But within the performance in the half, we absolutely took some cost out. We haven't specified the exact amount. But to Ron's point earlier, there was a few hundred heads as well from a direct labor standpoint that came out as well as just generally managing and flexing that cost in line with the demand.

因此，如果有的話，我們已經恢復了通貨膨脹，我們談到了 1.6 億美元。但是在上半場的表現中，我們絕對是拿出了一些成本。我們沒有具體說明具體金額。但就 Ron 早些時候的觀點而言，從直接勞動力的角度來看，也有數百名負責人出現，並且只是根據需求一般地管理和調整成本。

We'll take our next question from Kyle White with Deutsche Bank.

我們將從德意志銀行的 Kyle White 那裡回答下一個問題。

Just curious, given the kind of customer elasticity that you've talked about, have you seen any shift in your customers' go-to-market strategies on pricing as volumes have started to decelerate? Any sign of increased promo activity that could drive volumes? And I understand it might be hard to give a general statement given your diversification within Flexibles. So I guess I'm most interested on hot fill and cold fill beverages within Rigid Packaging, but any details would be appreciated.

只是好奇，考慮到您所說的那種客戶彈性，隨著銷量開始下降，您是否看到客戶的定價策略發生任何變化？有任何可以推動銷量的促銷活動增加的跡象嗎？我知道鑑於您在 Flexibles 中的多元化，可能很難給出一般性陳述。所以我想我對剛性包裝內的熱灌裝和冷灌裝飲料最感興趣，但如有任何細節，我們將不勝感激。

Yes, it's a good question. We have seen some shifts in the consumer and some of that driven by actions that the brand owners have taken. In the beverage space, and if we just focus on North America, although some of these points would hold in Latin America as well, but in the beverage space in North America, when the consumer is under pressure, they tend to revert to multipacks and smaller unit sizes, right? And so if they're going to buy a soft drink, they're likely to buy it in a pack of 12 where the unit price is lower than buying it through the convenience store in the cold chain. So we have seen some of that. That's probably contributed to the softness, particularly on the cold fill side.

是的，這是個好問題。我們已經看到消費者發生了一些變化，其中一些是由品牌所有者採取的行動推動的。在飲料領域，如果我們只關注北美，雖然其中一些觀點在拉丁美洲也適用，但在北美的飲料領域，當消費者面臨壓力時，他們往往會恢復到多件裝和更小的單位尺寸，對吧？因此，如果他們要購買軟飲料，他們很可能會購買 12 瓶裝的單價低於通過冷鏈便利店購買的單價。所以我們已經看到了其中的一些。這可能是導致柔軟的原因，特別是在冷填充側。

I think we've seen some other examples in other segments in Europe in the coffee segment. We've definitely seen soft volumes in the more premium end and the single-serve system sales, and we've seen higher sales in the segments that are multi-serve, so think about capsules in a system versus ground coffee or instant coffee. The instant coffee is what's being pushed at the moment. So we are seeing a little bit of that sort of behavior. It's maybe just a different degree of emphasis across their product mix as they help the consumer through a high inflationary environment.

我認為我們已經在歐洲咖啡領域的其他領域看到了其他一些例子。我們肯定已經看到更高端和單一服務系統銷售量疲軟，我們已經看到多服務細分市場的銷售額更高，所以考慮系統中的膠囊與研磨咖啡或速溶咖啡。速溶咖啡是目前正在推動的。所以我們看到了一些這種行為。這可能只是他們產品組合的不同程度的強調，因為他們幫助消費者度過高通脹環境。

We'll take our next question from Cameron McDonald with E&P.

我們將從 E&P 的 Cameron McDonald 那裡回答下一個問題。

Just a question for me. Just coming at it a different way with regards to the outlook on the volumes and the demand environment. Can you sort of delve into what the order cycle actually looks like with particularly the products around FMCG and the comments made by customers and how much visibility you've got on that order cycle. So obviously, your products get put into their production facility and then it sits on a shelf, and then they've got to sell it, so you get further visibility on what the customers are expecting. So have you got good visibility into the rest of the third quarter? Or can you see into the fourth quarter at this stage?

只是問我一個問題。關於數量和需求環境的前景，只是以不同的方式來看待它。您能否深入研究一下訂單週期的實際情況，尤其是快速消費品周圍的產品、客戶的評論以及您對該訂單週期的了解程度。很明顯，您的產品被放入他們的生產設施，然後放在貨架上，然後他們必須出售它，這樣您就可以進一步了解客戶的期望。那麼你對第三季度的剩餘時間有很好的了解嗎？還是現階段能看到第四季度？

The business is exposed really to consumer staples and fast-moving consumer goods and health care. And typically, we'll have visibility a few months out. Obviously, we have planning discussions with our customers over a longer period of time. But as you get near and near, those discussions get more and more granular and you get a greater degree of accuracy as you get closer. So I would say our degree of forecast visibility extends a few months. And that's about the extent of it. And right now, those forecasts are moving around quite a bit and have been now for the last few months. The volatility has increased and the variability in forecast has increased.

該業務真正接觸到消費必需品、快速消費品和醫療保健。通常，我們會在幾個月後獲得可見性。顯然，我們計劃與客戶進行更長時間的討論。但隨著你越來越接近，這些討論變得越來越細化，隨著你越來越接近，你會獲得更高的準確性。所以我想說我們的預測可見度會延長幾個月。這就是它的範圍。而現在，這些預測變化很大，過去幾個月一直如此。波動性增加，預測的可變性增加。

I think on the positive side, to the extent that there is any destocking that's gone on in our value chains, we would expect that to work itself through reasonably quickly. And in a matter of a quarter or 2, we should be through whatever destocking needs to occur.

我認為從積極的方面來看，就我們價值鏈中正在進行的任何去庫存而言，我們希望它能夠相當快地自行完成。在一兩個季度內，我們應該完成任何需要發生的去庫存。

We'll take our next question from Richard Johnson with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Richard Johnson 的下一個問題。

Ron, I just got a question on strategy. Your shareholder value accretion model has sort of been at the forefront of your strategy or a very much the foundation of your strategy for a very long time now. I'm conscious of the fact, though, that TSRs really struggle to keep pace with the value-add in more recent years. And really, my question is around the sort of long-term numbers because you're about to lose the big benefit of Alcan in your 10-year numbers. And I was just wondering how we should think about that, how you think about it and whether the model is still appropriate.

羅恩，我剛剛有一個關於策略的問題。很長一段時間以來，您的股東價值增值模型一直處於您戰略的最前沿，或者說是您戰略的基礎。不過，我意識到一個事實，即 TSR 在最近幾年確實很難跟上增值的步伐。真的，我的問題是關於長期數字，因為你將在 10 年的數字中失去 Alcan 的巨大好處。我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮它，您如何考慮它以及該模型是否仍然合適。

Yes. Look, it's a good question, Richard. We certainly believe the model is still appropriate. If you go back and look over a 10-year period, post the Alcan acquisition which is about 13 years ago now, in the last 10 years, we've been, from an intrinsic perspective, well above the 10% to 15% sort of shareholder value creation model that we talk about. We still believe the business will generate low single-digit top line growth. It will convert that with operating leverage like we've seen in the first half. And then with the excess cash flows of the business, we're going to continue to acquire or buy back shares and continue to grow our dividends. So all up, we think the model still makes sense. It's held us in good stead, and we'll continue to do so going forward.

是的。聽著，這是個好問題，理查德。我們當然相信該模型仍然適用。如果你回顧過去 10 年的時間，將大約 13 年前的 Alcan 收購發佈到現在，在過去的 10 年中，從內在的角度來看，我們已經遠遠超過 10% 到 15% 的那種我們所說的股東價值創造模式。我們仍然相信該業務將產生低個位數的收入增長。它將像我們在上半年看到的那樣，通過運營槓桿來轉換它。然後隨著業務的超額現金流，我們將繼續收購或回購股票並繼續增加股息。綜上所述，我們認為該模型仍然有意義。它對我們很有幫助，我們將繼續這樣做。

Great. And just a quick one on Russia for Michael, if I may. Michael, it looks like you've booked, I think off the top of my head, it's about $15 million of costs related to Russia below the line in the quarter. Can I just check whether that's correct. And secondly, what it might be? And thirdly, now you sold the business, there's no more to come below the line?

偉大的。如果可以的話，請為 Michael 簡單介紹一下俄羅斯。邁克爾，看起來你已經預訂了，我想在我的腦海中，這是本季度線下與俄羅斯相關的大約 1500 萬美元的成本。我可以檢查一下這是否正確嗎？其次，它可能是什麼？第三，現在你賣掉了生意，線下就沒有了？

So below the line, Richard, we took a $215 million gain, obviously, on the sale transaction. And then there were some costs just in relation to transferring a business, some of Ukraine costs still to just transfer equipment, et cetera, in that. As we look forward, you'll see the restructuring costs start to come through that will run through that line. But generally, the cost in relation to Russia are finished, yes.

因此，在這條線之下，理查德，我們顯然在出售交易中獲得了 2.15 億美元的收益。然後還有一些與轉移業務有關的成本，烏克蘭的一些成本仍然只是轉移設備等等。正如我們所期待的那樣，你會看到重組成本開始出現，並將貫穿那條線。但總的來說，與俄羅斯相關的成本已經完成，是的。

We'll take our next question from Brook Campbell-Crawford with Barrenjoey.

我們將與 Barrenjoey 一起接受 Brook Campbell-Crawford 的下一個問題。

Just on CapEx, it looks like a lighter CapEx quarter, the December quarter, it looks like it's about $94 million. Can you just remind us, I guess, what the expectations are for the full year? I think at the last result, it was $550 million to $600 million of CapEx was the expectation, so just an update on that one would be great. And any reasons for the lighter investment period in the December quarter?

就資本支出而言，它看起來像是一個較輕的資本支出季度，即 12 月的季度，看起來約為 9400 萬美元。你能不能提醒我們，我想，對全年的期望是什麼？我認為在最後的結果中，預期的資本支出是 5.5 億到 6 億美元，所以只要更新一下就很好了。 12 月季度較輕的投資期有什麼原因嗎？

Yes. Sure. In terms of the half, we're in and around that $250 million. There's a bit of FX in there as well versus prior year. So versus prior year, we're running about 3%, 4% ahead. For the full year, the number of $550 million to $600 million is still in the range of outcomes. We're likely to be kind of 5% to 10% ahead of prior year. And we continue to invest in the focus segments and the innovation platforms, which is where we've been focused on the investment. So no real change on the CapEx outlook, perhaps a little lower than where we were at 3 months ago, but pretty similar.

是的。當然。就一半而言，我們在 2.5 億美元左右。與前一年相比，那裡也有一些外匯。因此，與去年相比，我們的運行速度約為 3%，領先 4%。就全年而言，5.5 億美元至 6 億美元的數字仍在成果範圍內。我們可能比上一年領先 5% 到 10%。我們繼續投資於重點領域和創新平台，這是我們一直專注於投資的地方。因此，資本支出前景沒有真正的變化，可能比我們 3 個月前的水平略低，但非常相似。

And a follow-up, if I could, just around capital and the M&A strategy. Ron, if you wouldn't mind just reminding us of the M&A strategy as it is today? And has it changed at all over the last couple of years? I guess I asked just because more recent investments seem to be focused on sort of fiber paper type smaller deals, like full pack, in the one in China. You seem to be becoming a bit more substrate-agnostic. But just an update really on your M&A strategy will be fantastic.

如果可以的話，還有關於資本和併購戰略的後續行動。羅恩，如果你不介意提醒我們今天的併購戰略？在過去的幾年裡它有什麼變化嗎？我想我問這個問題只是因為最近的投資似乎集中在某種纖維紙類型的小型交易上，比如在中國的整包交易。你似乎變得有點不可知論。但只要真正更新您的併購戰略就太棒了。

Yes. Well, look, I mean we are substrate-agnostic. That's been true of the company throughout its history. In fact, about 25% of what we do is either fiber or aluminum. But as far as M&A goes, no change. I mean we think there's going to be good bolt-on opportunities across the portfolio. I think you see some examples this year with this health care acquisition in China of MDK. Michael referred earlier to a plant we bought in the Czech Republic earlier in the year to bolster our Eastern European footprint. So we think there'll be deals like that. I mean those are the deals that are out there because many of the companies in our space are small, and so we've got to be comfortable bolting on small businesses to our footprint. That will be part of the mix.

是的。好吧，看，我的意思是我們是底物不可知論者。公司的整個歷史都是如此。事實上，我們所做的大約 25% 是纖維或鋁。但就併購而言，沒有變化。我的意思是我們認為整個投資組合將有很好的補強機會。我想你今年看到了一些例子，比如 MDK 在中國的醫療保健收購。邁克爾早些時候提到了我們今年早些時候在捷克共和國購買的一家工廠，以加強我們在東歐的足跡。所以我們認為會有這樣的交易。我的意思是，這些交易之所以存在，是因為我們所在領域的許多公司都很小，因此我們必須樂於將小企業固定在我們的足跡上。這將是混合的一部分。

And then where we can supplement the portfolio, we would like to do that, too. I mean, certainly, in the priority segments that we've nominated, we'd like to continue to grow, health care being the one we've talked more about today. In Rigids, obviously, the hot fill space is one that we have a strong position in. But outside of beverage, there are opportunities for us to continue to grow as well. So there's a number of areas where we think the portfolio could be bolstered, but they'll be bolt-on opportunities across the Flexibles and Rigids segment. So no change to note.

然後在我們可以補充投資組合的地方，我們也想這樣做。我的意思是，當然，在我們提名的優先領域，我們希望繼續增長，醫療保健是我們今天談論得更多的領域。顯然，在 Rigids，熱灌裝領域是我們的強項。但在飲料之外，我們也有機會繼續發展。因此，我們認為在許多領域可以加強投資組合，但它們將成為柔性和剛性領域的補強機會。所以沒有變化需要注意。

We'll take our next question from Ben Kairaitis with MST.

我們將接受來自 MST 的 Ben Kairaitis 的下一個問題。

Just wondering if you are able to give any insight into what the interest rate impacts could be in FY '24. And also with tax, I note that there was a lower rate in the period, but wondering what we should expect for the balance of FY '23 and what we should consider to be a more normalized rate.

只是想知道您是否能夠深入了解利率對 24 財年的影響。還有稅收，我注意到這一時期的稅率較低，但想知道我們應該對 23 財年的餘額有什麼期望，以及我們應該考慮什麼是更正常的稅率。

Look, I mean if you think about interest and tax together this year, from a full year guidance standpoint, we've called out they're going to be a headwind of around 4%. And tax, we've called out, is going to be more in that 18% to 19% range. And that's really on the back of the mix of earnings and particularly where our interest expense is, which is in higher tax cost countries. But when you put that together with the interest increase, that's more than offset by the increase in interest.

聽著，我的意思是，如果你考慮今年的利息和稅收，從全年指導的角度來看，我們已經指出它們將成為 4% 左右的逆風。我們已經指出，稅收將在 18% 到 19% 的範圍內增加。這實際上是在收益組合的支持下，尤其是在我們的利息支出所在的地方，即在稅收成本較高的國家。但是，當您將其與利息增加放在一起時，這將被利息增加所抵消。

So for this year, 4%. We haven't called out any guidance for FY '24 at this stage. But obviously, in the first half, depending on where interest rates go, there could be some headwind, but we're yet to see where that ends up. So at this stage, we'll come back to you on that one.

所以今年是 4%。現階段我們還沒有為 FY '24 提出任何指導意見。但顯然，在上半年，根據利率走勢，可能會出現一些不利因素，但我們尚未看到最終結果如何。所以在這個階段，我們會在那個問題上回复你。

We'll take a follow-up question from John Purtell with Macquarie.

我們將接受 John Purtell 與 Macquarie 的後續問題。

Just a quick follow-up, Michael, just on the raw material side. You obviously saw a modest benefit there in the second quarter. I mean it looks like the raw mat indices have retraced a fair way. So the question is what have you baked into guidance because it looks like there should be a pretty material raw material benefit in that second half.

只是快速跟進，邁克爾，就在原材料方面。你顯然在第二季度看到了適度的收益。我的意思是看起來原始墊指數已經以公平的方式回撤。所以問題是你將什麼納入指導，因為看起來下半年應該會有相當大的原材料收益。

Yes. Look, John, you're right. As we mentioned, we started to see some modest benefit in Q2 from raw materials as they've come down. Obviously, we're still holding higher inventories. So they're working their way through the system, which you're still going to see some impact from in Q3 as we work those down. Raw materials right now, they're pretty benign, remembering, we buy a broad basket of materials across broad geographies, so we see that pretty benign outlook for raw materials. So in Q3, we're again expecting some modest tailwind from the raw materials side. Beyond that, it's really going to depend on what happens to the raw materials and how quickly we can get the inventory out of the system also linked to the demand environment, John, as well.

是的。聽著，約翰，你是對的。正如我們所提到的，我們開始看到第二季度原材料的一些適度收益，因為它們已經下降。顯然，我們仍然持有更高的庫存。所以他們正在通過系統工作，你仍然會在第三季度看到一些影響，因為我們正在努力解決這些問題。現在的原材料，它們非常良性，記住，我們在廣泛的地區購買了一攬子材料，所以我們看到原材料的前景相當良性。因此，在第三季度，我們再次期待原材料方面出現一些適度的順風。除此之外，這真的取決於原材料會發生什麼，以及我們能以多快的速度將庫存從系統中取出，這也與需求環境有關，John 也是如此。

So clearly, if demand improves, and we get stronger demand and then inventories will come down faster, you might get a little high tailwind. The opposite is true, if the demand is softer, and we can't get the inventory out of the system as quickly, then that will impact. But the guidance has a range of outcomes built into it, and that's all factored into the guidance range at this stage.

很明顯，如果需求改善，我們的需求更強勁，那麼庫存將更快下降，你可能會得到一點順風。反之亦然，如果需求疲軟，我們無法盡快將庫存從系統中清除出去，那將會產生影響。但是該指南內置了一系列結果，並且在現階段將所有結果都納入了指南範圍。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ron Delia for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Ron Delia 以聽取任何結束語。

Okay. Look, we would just like to thank everybody for their interest in Amcor, operator. We feel like we've had a very strong first half, and we're looking forward to closing off another strong year for the company for fiscal '23. So we'll close the call there. Thanks very much.

好的。看，我們只想感謝大家對運營商 Amcor 的興趣。我們覺得我們上半年表現非常強勁，我們期待著為公司在 23 財年結束又一個強勁的一年。所以我們將在那裡結束通話。非常感謝。

And that concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。