Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Amcor fiscal year '24 results conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Amcor '24 財年業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管特雷西懷特海德 (Tracey Whitehead)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining Amcor's fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. Joining me today is Peter Konieczny, Interim Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Casamento, Interim Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝營運商，也謝謝大家參加 Amcor 的 2024 財年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天加入我的是臨時執行長 Peter Konieczny 和臨時財務長 Michael Casamento。

Before I hand over, let me note a few items. On our website Amcor.com under the investor section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we'll discuss on this call. Please be aware that we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and related reconciliations can be found in the press release and the presentation. Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions, a second slide in today's presentation, the several factors that could cause future results to differ from current estimates.

在我移交之前，讓我記下一些事項。在我們網站 Amcor.com 的投資者部分，您可以找到今天的新聞稿和演示文稿，我們將在本次電話會議上討論這些內容。請注意，我們還將討論非公認會計準則財務指標，相關調節表可在新聞稿和簡報中找到。評論還將包括基於管理層當前觀點和假設的前瞻性陳述、今天簡報中的第二張幻燈片以及可能導致未來結果與當前估計不同的幾個因素。

Reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statement on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further detail. Please note that during the question-and-answer session, we request that you limit yourself to a single question and then rejoin the queue, if you have any additional follow-up.

請參閱 Amcor 的 SEC 文件，包括我們在 10-K 和 10-Q 表上的聲明，以了解更多詳細資訊。請注意，在問答環節中，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題上，然後如果您還有任何其他後續問題，請重新加入佇列。

With that, over to Peter.

就這樣，交給彼得了。

Thank you, Tracy, and thank you to all who have joined us for today's call. I want to open the call with a big thank you to our Amcor colleagues around the world. All of whom demonstrated tremendous focus in fiscal '24. Their hard work and dedication enabled us to improve our financial performance through the year and to finish the year strong, and I want to publicly recognize their efforts.

謝謝你，特雷西，也感謝所有參加我們今天電話會議的人。在通話開始時，我要向世界各地的 Amcor 同事們表達衷心的感謝。他們所有人都在 24 財年展現了極大的關注。他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神使我們能夠改善這一年的財務業績，並以強勁的業績結束這一年，我想公開認可他們的努力。

In terms of Q4, we start, as always with safety on slide 3. Safety is our number one priority, and our efforts to provide a safe and healthy work environment for our teams resulted in another year of improved performance, which reinforces our industry leadership when it comes to safety. 73% of our sites have remained injury-free for 12 months or longer. And overall, Amcor experienced a 12% reduction in injuries compared to fiscal '23. Our commitment to our people and to their safety remains our most important value, and we continue to aspire to achieve our ultimate goal of zero injuries.

就第四季而言，我們一如既往地從幻燈片3 上的安全開始。我們的行業領導地位當談到安全時。我們 73% 的場地在 12 個月或更長時間內保持無傷害。總體而言，與 23 財年相比，Amcor 的受傷人數減少了 12%。我們對員工及其安全的承諾仍然是我們最重要的價值觀，我們繼續渴望實現零傷害的最終目標。

Turning to slide 4, Amcor's near-term priorities remain consistent with those I shared on our Q3 earnings call, and I'm happy to report we are successfully delivering against these priorities. As I just mentioned, providing a safe and healthy work environment for our global workforce will always be number one. Second is to stay close to our key stakeholders, including employees and customers, which helped us finish fiscal '24 year strongly. Our teams continue to execute well in the fourth quarter, maintaining cost discipline as volume trends continued to improve sequentially with a return to volume growth in Q4. As a result, we delivered another quarter of solid margin expansion and earnings per share growth above the expectations we set out in April.

轉向投影片 4，Amcor 的近期優先事項與我在第三季財報電話會議上分享的內容保持一致，我很高興地報告我們正在成功實現這些優先事項。正如我剛才提到的，為我們的全球員工提供安全健康的工作環境永遠是第一位的。其次是與我們的主要利害關係人（包括員工和客戶）保持密切聯繫，這幫助我們強勁地完成了「24 財年」。我們的團隊在第四季持續表現良好，保持成本控制，銷售趨勢持續改善，第四季銷售恢復成長。結果，我們又一個季度實現了穩健的利潤率擴張和每股收益成長，超出了我們 4 月設定的預期。

Third is to build on the progress we have worked hard to deliver across the business and ensure we maintain momentum in fiscal '25. We expect our earnings and volume performance to continue to improve, and this is reflected in our fiscal '25 guidance. And fourth, I and our senior leaders continue to focus on providing stability for the business and helping our teams deliver for all our stakeholders. We're executing well and winning with our customers as we continue to reinforce that Amcor strategy, agenda, and priorities have not changed.

第三是鞏固我們在整個業務領域努力的進展，並確保我們在 25 財年保持勢頭。我們預計我們的收益和銷售表現將繼續改善，這反映在我們的 25 財年指導中。第四，我和我們的高階領導者繼續專注於為業務提供穩定性，並幫助我們的團隊為所有利害關係人提供服務。我們執行得很好，並贏得了客戶的青睞，因為我們繼續強化 Amcor 策略、議程和優先事項沒有改變。

Moving to our key messages for today On slide 5. First, Amcor reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter, driven by solid performance from the underlying business and a return to volume growth resulting in both segments delivering adjusted EBIT growth on a comparable basis. Second, volumes, EPS growth, and free cash flow were ahead of expectations we set out in April. Overall volumes increased 1% in the quarter compared to last year, which exceeded the low single digit decline we were anticipating. Earnings per share also outperformed expectations up 9%, which was above our guidance for mid-single digit growth.

轉到我們今天的關鍵信息，請參見幻燈片5。實現了調整後的息稅前利潤成長。其次，銷售量、每股盈餘成長和自由現金流都超出了我們 4 月設定的預期。與去年相比，本季總銷量成長了 1%，超出了我們預期的個位數下降幅度。每股盈餘也超出預期，成長 9%，高於我們對中個位數成長的指引。

Third, we expect to build further momentum and deliver annual EPS growth through continued strong performance from the underlying business. At the midpoint of our fiscal '25 EPS guidance range of growth of 3% to 8%, we expect total annual value generated to once again be consistent with the 10% to 15% outlined on our shareholder value-creation model, assuming a dividend yield aligned with historical average.

第三，我們預期透過基礎業務的持續強勁表現，進一步增強動力並實現年度每股收益成長。在我們 25 財年 EPS 成長指引範圍 3% 至 8% 的中點，我們預期產生的年度總價值將再次與股東價值創造模型中概述的 10% 至 15% 一致（假設股息）收益率與歷史平均水平一致。

It is important to point out that we expect the underlying business to continue to deliver strong growth in line with the high single digit earnings growth experienced in Q4, considering our guidance includes an EPS headwind of approximately 4 percentage points related to normalization of incentives. Michael will step through the components embedded in our guidance range in more detail shortly.

需要指出的是，考慮到我們的指導包括與激勵正常化相關的每股收益約4 個百分點的逆風，我們預計基礎業務將繼續實現強勁增長，與第四季度經歷的高個位數盈利增長一致。邁克爾很快就會更詳細地介紹我們指導範圍中嵌入的組件。

Our final key message is that our capital allocation priorities and strategies for long-term growth have not changed. We continue to invest in organic growth across the business, including in higher value priority categories in emerging markets. Strategic M&A also remains an important source of incremental growth and value creation. We believe the strength of our market positions, our opportunities to invest for growth, our execution capabilities, and our commitment to a compelling and growing dividend, and to maintaining an investment grade credit rating sums up to a competing convincing investment case, frankly.

我們最後的關鍵訊息是，我們的資本配置優先事項和長期成長策略並沒有改變。我們持續投資於整個業務的有機成長，包括新興市場中價值較高的優先類別。策略併購仍然是增量成長和價值創造的重要來源。坦白說，我們相信，我們的市場地位優勢、成長投資機會、執行能力、對令人信服且不斷增長的股息以及維持投資級信用評級的承諾，構成了一個具有競爭力的、令人信服的投資案例。

Moving to slide 6 for a summary of our financial results. We finished fiscal '24 on a strong note as customer demand continued to improve off second quarter lows and our teams did an excellent job leveraging our differentiated value proposition to support our customers and drive volumes higher. At the same time, our unwavering focus on proactive cost management through the year resulted in four consecutive quarters of strong margin expansion.

請前往投影片 6，以了解我們的財務表現摘要。我們以強勁的業績結束了 24 財年，因為客戶需求持續改善，擺脫了第二季度的低點，而且我們的團隊出色地利用了我們差異化的價值主張來支持客戶並推動銷量增長。同時，我們全年堅定不移地致力於主動成本管理，導致利潤率連續四季強勁成長。

Overall volumes returned to growth earlier than we anticipated and were up 1% in Q4. Our second consecutive quarter of strong sequential volume improvement. As expected volumes across health care categories and in the North America beverage business remained soft through the fourth quarter. Combined these two businesses, which represent approximately 25% of sales in Q4, unfavorably impacted overall volumes by approximately 2%.

整體銷量恢復成長的時間早於我們的預期，第四季成長了 1%。我們連續第二季銷售強勁成長。正如預期的那樣，醫療保健類別和北美飲料業務的銷售在第四季度仍然疲軟。這兩項業務合計約佔第四季銷售額的 25%，對總銷量產生了約 2% 的不利影響。

Across the balance of the business, overall volumes were approximately 3% higher than the June quarter last year. This reflects broad-based improvements in customer demand across many end markets. And what we believe is the end of destocking in all categories other than health care. Price mix had an unfavorable impact on sales of approximately 3%, primarily driven by continued destocking in high-margin health care categories.

在整個業務的平衡中，總銷量比去年 6 月季度高出約 3%。這反映出許多終端市場客戶需求的廣泛改善。我們認為，除醫療保健以外的所有類別的去庫存都會結束。價格組合對銷售額產生了約 3% 的不利影響，這主要是由於高利潤醫療保健類別的庫存持續減少所致。

Cost reduction and productivity initiatives remained a focus, and we delivered another quarter of significant cost savings totaling more than $110 million, including an additional $20 million of benefits from structural cost initiatives in Q4. This builds on the outstanding efforts by all our teams across the businesses through the first three quarters, bringing the total cost savings for the year to more than $40 million, including structural savings of $35 million. The result of improving volume trends and our focus on cost and productivity actions was another quarter of strong earnings leverage, as momentum in Amcor's underlying business continuing.

降低成本和提高生產力計劃仍然是重點，我們又一個季度實現了總計超過 1.1 億美元的重大成本節約，其中包括第四季度結構性成本計劃帶來的額外 2000 萬美元收益。這是建立在我們所有業務團隊在前三個季度的出色努力的基礎上的，使全年總成本節省超過 4000 萬美元，其中結構性節省為 3500 萬美元。隨著 Amcor 基礎業務的持續成長勢頭，銷售趨勢的改善以及我們對成本和生產力行動的關注，帶來了另一個季度強勁的獲利槓桿。

Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.211 grew by 9% on a comparable constant currency basis above our April guidance for mid-single digit growth and adjusted EBIT was up 4% compared with last year. Overall, for fiscal '24, we delivered adjusted EPS towards the top end of our guidance range we provided last August, and our ongoing focus on cash conversion was rewarded with adjusted free cash flow of $952 million, up more than $100 million last year and just above the top end of our guidance range. We also continued to return significant cash to shareholders through a compelling and growing dividend. In addition to share repurchases, which combined totaled approximately $750 million for fiscal '24.

第四季調整後每股收益為 0.211 美元，以可比固定匯率計算成長 9%，高於我們 4 月中個位數成長的指引，調整後息稅前利潤與去年同期相比成長 4%。總體而言，24 財年，我們的調整後每股收益接近我們去年8 月提供的指導範圍的上限，而我們對現金轉換的持續關注得到了回報，調整後的自由現金流為9.52 億美元，比去年增加了1 億多美元，略高於我們指引範圍的上限。我們也繼續透過引人注目且不斷增長的股息向股東返還大量現金。除了股票回購之外，2024 財年的總金額約為 7.5 億美元。

Turning it over to Michael now to provide some further color on the financials and our outlook. Michael?

現在將其交給邁克爾，以提供有關財務狀況和我們的前景的更多資訊。麥可？

Thanks, Peter, and hello, everyone. Beginning with the flexibles segment on slide 7 and focusing on our fiscal Q4 performance. Q4 volumes increased by 3%, which represented a significant sequential improvement of 5 percentage points compared with the March quarter. Net sales, however, were down 1% on a comparable constant currency basis as volume growth was offset by unfavorable price mix of approximately 4%, primarily related to lower health care sales, which we anticipated. Destocking in health care categories continued in North America and Europe, and this resulted in a headwind of approximately 2% on overall segment volumes.

謝謝彼得，大家好。從幻燈片 7 上的彈性部分開始，重點關注我們第四季度的財務表現。第四季銷售成長 3%，與 3 月季度相比較上季顯著提高 5 個百分點。然而，以可比固定匯率計算，淨銷售額下降了 1%，因為銷售成長被約 4% 的不利價格組合所抵消，這主要與我們預期的醫療保健銷售額下降有關。北美和歐洲醫療保健類別的庫存持續減少，導致整個細分市場銷售量下降約 2%。

Across the balance of our flexibles portfolio, Amcore experienced very solid growth, with volumes increasing by approximately 5% in the quarter. The improved customer demand we saw in the third quarter continued, as customers increase their focus on growing volumes and returned to more normalized order patterns now that destocking has ended. This led to broad-based growth across most geographies with volumes increasing in several categories, including meat, cheese, home and personal care, and unconverted film and foil.

在我們靈活的產品組合中，Amcore 經歷了非常穩健的成長，本季銷量成長了約 5%。我們在第三季看到的客戶需求持續改善，因為客戶更專注於銷售量的成長，並在去庫存結束後恢復到更正常化的訂單模式。這導致了大多數地區的廣泛增長，多個類別的銷量增加，包括肉類、起司、家庭和個人護理以及未加工的薄膜和鋁箔。

Across North America and Europe, fourth quarter demand improved across many end markets, resulting in a return to overall volume growth in the low to mid-single digit range in both regions, despite continued softness in healthcare. In North America, volumes were higher in meat, cheese, and snacks categories. And in Europe, the business delivered particularly strong volume growth in meat, home and personal care, and unconverted film and foil.

在北美和歐洲，儘管醫療保健行業持續疲軟，但許多終端市場的第四季度需求有所改善，導致這兩個地區的整體銷售成長恢復到低至中個位數範圍。在北美，肉類、起司和零食類別的銷售量較高。在歐洲，該業務在肉類、家庭和個人護理品以及未加工的薄膜和鋁箔領域的銷售成長尤為強勁。

Emerging market volumes were up mid-single digits in Q4. Most countries experienced solid growth with volumes in China, increasing for the fourth consecutive quarter and strength continuing in India, Thailand, Brazil, and Mexico to name a few. Adjusted EBIT for the quarter of $403 million was 5% higher than last year on a comparable constant currency basis. Higher volumes combined with strong cost performance through the quarter, including from restructuring initiatives, led to another quarter of margin expansion with EBIT margins up 110 basis points to 15%.

第四季新興市場銷售成長了中個位數。大多數國家都實現了穩健成長，其中中國的銷售量連續第四個季度增長，印度、泰國、巴西和墨西哥等地的銷售量持續強勁。以可比固定匯率計算，本季調整後息稅前利潤為 4.03 億美元，比去年高出 5%。更高的銷售量加上整個季度強勁的成本效益（包括重組舉措），導致利潤率又一個季度擴大，息稅前利潤率增長 110 個基點，達到 15%。

Turning to rigid packaging on slide 8. Volumes and earnings trajectory for rigids continued to improve in the fourth quarter with the business delivering consecutive quarters of earnings growth in the second half. As anticipated, overall volume performance for the business improved sequentially, as the 5% volume decline in Q4 was 3 percentage points better than the March quarter. As expected, Q4 decline was driven by lower volumes in the North American beverage business. Across the balance of the rigid packaging portfolio, volumes were in line with the fourth quarter last year and favorable price mix benefits of approximately 3%, resulted in a 2% decline in net sales on a comparable constant currency basis.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的硬質包裝。正如預期的那樣，該業務的整體銷售表現環比有所改善，第四季度銷量下降 5%，比 3 月季度好 3 個百分點。正如預期的那樣，第四季度的下滑是由於北美飲料業務銷量下降所致。在硬包裝產品組合的其餘部分中，銷量與去年第四季度持平，價格組合帶來約 3% 的有利價格組合效益，導致可比固定匯率計算的淨銷售額下降 2%。

In North America, beverage volumes were down 8%, reflecting lower consumer demand in Amcor's key-end markets and unfavorable customer mix. Volumes improved by 3 percentage points on a sequential basis as destocking ended and warmer weather resulted in modest improvement in consumer consumption versus the March quarter. In Latin America, volumes increased in the low single digit range compared with last year, driven by continued growth in Brazil and Colombia.

在北美，飲料銷售量下降了 8%，反映出 Amcor 關鍵終端市場的消費者需求下降以及不利的客戶組合。由於去庫存結束以及天氣變暖導致消費者消費較三月季度略有改善，成交量環比增長了 3 個百分點。在拉丁美洲，受巴西和哥倫比亞持續成長的推動，銷量與去年相比以低個位數成長。

And from an earnings perspective, the business delivered another quarter of earnings growth and margin expansion through an ongoing focus on cost reduction and productivity measures and the realization of benefits from restructuring initiatives. Adjusted EBIT increased by 2% in Q4, with EBIT margin increasing by 70 basis points to 8.8%.

從獲利角度來看，透過持續關注成本降低和生產力措施以及實現重組計劃的收益，該業務實現了又一個季度的盈利增長和利潤率擴張。第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長 2%，息稅前利潤率成長 70 個基點至 8.8%。

Moving to cash on the balance sheet on slide 9. Adjusted free cash flow for fiscal '24 was just above the top end of our guidance range at $952 million, up more than $100 million or 12% compared with last year. Cash generation was strong through the fourth quarter, and we delivered good cash conversion by remaining laser focused on improving working capital performance with inventories reducing for the sixth consecutive quarter. The timing of spend on CapEx projects was also a modest tailwind in the year which we expect to unwind in fiscal '25. Leverage at 3.1 times was down 0.3 of a turn from the March quarter. It was in line with our expectations for year end.

轉向投影片 9 中資產負債表上的現金。第四季現金產生強勁，我們透過持續專注於改善營運資本績效以及連續第六個季度減少庫存，實現了良好的現金轉換。資本支出項目的支出時機也是今年的溫和推動因素，我們預計該支出將在 25 財年結束。槓桿率為 3.1 倍，較 3 月季度下降 0.3 倍。這符合我們對年底的預期。

This brings me to the outlook on slide 10. For fiscal '25, we expect to continue building on the volume and earnings momentum we achieved for the second half of fiscal '24. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $0.72 to $0.76 per share on a reported basis, representing comparable constant currency growth of 3% to 8%. As PK noted earlier, we expect the growth in the underlying business will remain strong in fiscal '25.

這讓我想到了幻燈片 10 中的前景。根據報告，調整後收益預計為每股 0.72 美元至 0.76 美元，相當於 3% 至 8% 的可比恆定貨幣成長率。正如 PK 先前指出的，我們預計 25 財年基礎業務的成長將保持強勁。

However, it's important to note that our guidance includes an EPS headwind of approximately 4% related to more normalized levels of incentive compensation based on our expectations for improved annual financial results. Excluding this incentive normalization, our guidance range implies expected growth from the underlying business in the high single to low double-digit range.

然而，值得注意的是，我們的指導包括約 4% 的每股收益逆風，這與基於我們對年度財務業績改善的預期的更正常化的激勵薪酬水平有關。排除這種激勵正常化，我們的指導範圍意味著基礎業務的預期成長在高個位數到低兩位數的範圍內。

Our guidance range assumes an expected volume increase in the low to mid-single digit range for the year with trading performance in July aligned with this expectation. Interest expense is expected to be between $290 million and $305 million. And the effective tax rate is estimated to be in the range of 19% to 20%. When combining interest and tax in absolute terms, the expectation is for a modest headwind to earnings when compared with fiscal '24.

我們的指導範圍假設今年的交易量預計將在低至中個位數範圍內增長，7 月份的交易表現與這一預期一致。利息支出預計在 2.9 億至 3.05 億美元之間。有效稅率估計在19%至20%之間。當利息和稅收以絕對值合併時，與 24 財年相比，預計獲利將面臨適度的阻力。

In terms of phasing, we anticipate this will be broadly aligned with historical average of approximately 45% of earnings being delivered in the first half of the year and 55% in the second half, with the fourth quarter typically the strongest of the year. And finally, we expect to continue to generate strong adjusted free cash flow in the range of $900 million to $1 billion, even as we fund an increase in capital expenditure of approximately $40 million to $60 million from a lower base in '24, which I mentioned earlier. And we expect to exit the year with leverage back within our 2.5 to 3 times management range.

就分階段而言，我們預計這將與歷史平均水平大致一致，即上半年實現盈利約 45%，下半年實現盈利約 55%，其中第四季度通常是全年中最強勁的。最後，我們預計將繼續產生 9 億至 10 億美元範圍內的強勁調整後自由現金流，即使我們為資本支出從 24 年較低的基數增加約 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元提供資金，我認為前面提到過。我們預計今年結束時槓桿率將回到我們 2.5 至 3 倍的管理範圍。

We're pleased with the finish to fiscal '24 and look forward to delivering strong financial results in '25 and beyond.

我們對 24 財年的結束感到滿意，並期待在 25 財年及以後實現強勁的財務業績。

So with that, I'll hand it back to you, PK.

那麼，我會把它還給你，PK。

Thank you, Michael. In closing on slide 11, we finished '24 on a strong note, and we're encouraged by the broad-based improvement in volumes we're seeing across most geographies and end markets. Earnings both -- earnings growth in both segments in the second half of fiscal '24, combined with a return to volume growth in the fourth quarter and the trends experienced in the first several weeks of fiscal '25 give us confidence that momentum will continue to build in the underlying business.

謝謝你，麥可。在幻燈片 11 的結尾處，我們以強勁的表現結束了 24 年，我們對大多數地區和終端市場的銷售普遍改善感到鼓舞。獲利－24 財年下半年兩個部門的獲利成長，加上第四季銷售成長的恢復以及 25 財年前幾週經歷的趨勢，讓我們相信勢頭將繼續成長。

We expect overall volumes to continue to grow in fiscal '25, and we will maintain a sharp focus on cost control and productivity initiatives to drive solid earnings growth. And importantly, assuming a dividend yield aligned with historical average at the midpoint of our EPS guidance range, we are well positioned to deliver annual value generated in fiscal '25 to be in line with the 10% to 15% outlined in our shareholder value-creation model.

我們預計 25 財年的整體銷售將繼續成長，並且我們將繼續高度關注成本控制和生產力計劃，以推動穩健的獲利成長。重要的是，假設股息殖利率與我們每股收益指引範圍中點的歷史平均值一致，我們有能力實現 25 財年產生的年度價值，與我們股東價值中概述的 10% 至 15% 一致。模型。

We'll continue to capitalize on opportunities to grow the business by staying close to our customers, providing the support and the differentiated, more sustainable packaging solutions they need to protect, preserve, and promote their products as they drive their own volume growth. We continue to invest in organic growth, including in value, priority categories, and emerging markets.

我們將繼續利用與客戶保持密切聯繫的機會來發展業務，為他們提供支援和差異化的、更永續的包裝解決方案，以保護、保存和推廣他們的產品，同時推動自己的銷售成長。我們持續投資於有機成長，包括價值、優先類別和新興市場。

Strategic M&A is an important source for incremental growth and value creation. And we're committed to a compelling dividend which grows annually. We're confident in our execution capabilities and the opportunities we have to continue delivering profitable growth from the underlying business and to create strong free cash flow in fiscal '25 and beyond.

策略併購是增量成長和價值創造的重要來源。我們致力於提供每年增長的引人注目的股息。我們對自己的執行能力和機會充滿信心，能夠繼續實現基礎業務的獲利成長，並在 25 財年及以後創造強勁的自由現金流。

Operator, we're now ready to turn the line over to questions.

接線員，我們現在準備將線路轉入提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆‧潘嘉比 (Ghansham Panjabi)，貝爾德 (Baird)。

Thank you all everybody. Can you just give us a sense as to what you're seeing as it relates to true market conditions? I mean, obviously, you're cycling over easier comparisons from a year ago, just given inventory destocking, et cetera. But what is your characterization of the actual end market in context of what we read about with the consumer affordability issues and so on? And I guess I'm asking because you know, last year your volumes were down 5% in fiscal year '24 and your guidance is I think it was low to mid-single digit volumes. So just trying to get a sense as to what you're actually seeing in the market?

謝謝大家。您能否讓我們了解一下您所看到的與真實市場狀況相關的情況？我的意思是，顯然，考慮到庫存去庫存等因素，你會與一年前進行更簡單的比較。但是，根據我們所讀到的消費者承受能力問題等，您對實際終端市場的描述是什麼？我想我問這個問題是因為你知道，去年你們的銷量在 24 財年下降了 5%，而我認為你們的指導是低到中個位數的銷量。那麼只是想了解一下您在市場上實際看到的情況嗎？

Thanks, Ghansham. Let me take that question here and then see if Michael wants to build if needed or required. Look, first of all, we've been very pleased with the performance of the volumes with a sequential improvement from Q3 to Q4, which was even better than what we expected. And we went back to volume growth, which was some again better than the low single digit decline that we had indicated and after Q3. And then we've been pleased with With that being pretty much broadband across the different regions and categories. So it was a broad momentum that was building here and we're very pleased to see that too.

謝謝，甘沙姆。讓我在這裡回答這個問題，然後看看邁克爾是否願意在需要時進行構建。首先，我們對卷的表現非常滿意，從第三季到第四季連續改善，甚至比我們的預期還要好。我們回到了銷售成長，這再次好於我們在第三季之後表示的低個位數下降。我們對跨不同地區和類別的寬頻感到滿意。因此，這裡正在形成一種廣泛的勢頭，我們也很高興看到這一點。

Then if I double click on where the 1% comes from as, I tried to depict that into the different drivers. The first thing that I would say is it's not necessarily consumer demand. Consumer demand continues to be muted. We would consider that to be low-single digit down still. And it also when we go into '25 with our expectations, we wouldn't assume that that necessarily improves.

然後，如果我雙擊 1% 的來源，我會嘗試將其描繪到不同的驅動程式中。我首先要說的是，這不一定是消費者的需求。消費者需求持續低迷。我們認為這一數字仍然是低個位數的下降。當我們帶著我們的期望進入 25 世紀時，我們也不會認為情況一定會有所改善。

And what we're seeing is that our customers are starting to do better. Our customers -- when we talked about this also in the last earnings call, where we pointed out that our customers are looking for a better balance between volumes and price, and you also see that when you go through some of the announcements that have come out lately. So that's better and we're demonstrating an ability to win with those customers. And that is through what we have to offer and I would just call that on a headline, the value profit proposition that that we can bring to the customer. So that's encouraging. And that's really the driver of the improvement to a large extent.

我們看到我們的客戶開始做得更好。我們的客戶—當我們在上次財報電話會議中也談到這一點時，我們指出我們的客戶正在尋求銷售和價格之間更好的平衡，當你瀏覽一些已發布的公告時，你也會看到這一點最近出去了。所以這樣更好，我們正在展示贏得這些客戶的能力。這就是透過我們所提供的東西，我將其稱為標題，即我們可以為客戶帶來的價值利潤主張。所以這是令人鼓舞的。這在很大程度上確實是改進的驅動力。

Of course, we are seeing some benefits from cycling out of the de-stocking that we had last year and in the fourth quarter to give you a feel that would have been not really much and maybe a couple of percentage points. But also remember that we're still seeing destocking in the health care business that pretty much goes against us and those would be the major drivers. And they're very consistent with sort of what we're seeing when we look to '25. I hope that term, that sort of answers the question.

當然，我們看到去年和第四季的去庫存政策帶來了一些好處，讓你感覺這種好處並不多，也許只有幾個百分點。但也要記住，我們仍然看到醫療保健業務的去庫存，這對我們來說非常不利，而這些將是主要驅動因素。它們與我們展望 25 年後所看到的情況非常一致。我希望這個詞能夠回答這個問題。

Keith Chau, MST financial services.

Keith Chau，MST 金融服務公司。

Hi, Peter an Michael. Just want to maybe actually reflect back on that question. So what you're saying is that the consumer is still weak at the moment. So the growth was not consumer demand to low single digit down. Your volumes and FY25, it feels like part of that is the unwinding destocking, which is a couple of percent of your expected kind of low to mid-single digits. So there's maybe some slight improvement in your underlying volumes. So I'm just trying to work out what the difference is between those two factors. Like who do you think is losing in taking share? I am just trying to square up the numbers from the first question. Thank you.

嗨，彼得和邁克爾。只是想真正反思這個問題。所以你的意思是目前消費者仍然疲軟。因此，消費者需求的成長並沒有下降到低個位數。你的銷售量和 25 財年，感覺其中一部分是去庫存，這只是你預期的中低個位數的幾個百分點。因此，您的基礎交易量可能會略有改善。所以我只是想找出這兩個因素之間的差異。例如你認為誰在分享市場佔有率時就受到了損失？我只是想將第一個問題中的數字平方。謝謝。

Hey, Keith. So first of all, I would say it's not really a share story here. It comes down to, again the things that I've mentioned before, the consumer demand, we would hope to improve going forward. But we're careful in terms of our expectations for the next year, we're not banking much on that to happen. If it comes, that would be great. And that would be providing further tailwinds for us.

嘿，基斯。首先，我想說這不是一個真正的分享故事。歸根究底，還是我之前提到的消費者需求，我們希望未來能有所改善。但我們對明年的預期持謹慎態度，我們並不太指望這種情況會發生。如果它來了，那就太好了。這將為我們提供進一步的推動力。

And again, what you're seeing is on a comparative basis to prior periods, you would see the de-stocking sort of cycling off, that gets us a better volume performance in terms of what we report. And a little more color on that in the first half of '25, we would be comping a pretty broad range destocking versus prior period. However, we said that pretty much came to an end after the first half last year. So that won't be there in the second half anymore. And in the first half, we will still continue to see destocking in the health care category, which is pretty much a quarter longer than what we guided towards in Q3 -- in the earnings call after Q3. But that will abate in the back half of the year.

再說一次，你所看到的是與之前時期相比，你會看到去庫存的循環週期，這讓我們在報告中獲得了更好的銷售表現。 25 年上半年，我們將比較上一時期相當廣泛的去庫存。然而，我們說去年上半年之後就基本結束了。所以下半場就不會再出現這種情況了。上半年，我們仍將繼續看到醫療保健類別的去庫存，這比我們在第三季後的財報電話會議中所指導的目標長了近四分之一。但這種情況將在今年下半年減弱。

And then and then we continue to believe that that our customers and to a large extent, we have good exposure to big global customers, that they will continue to drive their volume performance, which is very consistent with what you're hearing. And we have -- we're partnering up with them and like we have built a good relationship with them over the past. We always have been very close to the big customers. And as their volumes are coming back, we take advantage of that. So you pull all that together, that sort of results into the volume guidance of low single digits and mid-single digit next year.

然後，我們仍然相信，我們的客戶，在很大程度上，我們與全球大客戶有良好的接觸，他們將繼續推動他們的銷售表現，這與您所聽到的非常一致。我們正在與他們合作，就像我們過去與他們建立了良好的關係一樣。我們一直與大客戶非常接近。隨著他們的銷量回升，我們利用了這一點。因此，你將所有這些綜合起來，將結果納入明年低個位數和中個位數的銷售指導中。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

亞當·薩繆爾森，高盛。

Thank you. Good evening, everyone. I guess maybe continuing along that line discussion, maybe I'd like to dig in a little more on the health care end market, which is still your most challenged. If I was doing the algebra, right, it seems like you're implying that was down your high single digit volumes in the fiscal fourth quarter. Sounds like destocking continuing for at least one more quarter. You talked about the confidence you have that ending by the end of this calendar year, and maybe a little bit more clarity on what the assumptions are for the healthcare business for volumes in in fiscal '25. It obviously has important implications on mix as we move through the year. Thank you.

謝謝。大家晚上好。我想也許繼續沿著這條線進行討論，也許我想進一步深入了解醫療保健終端市場，這仍然是你們面臨的最大挑戰。如果我在做代數，對吧，你似乎在暗示第四財季的高個位數數量下降了。聽起來去庫存至少還要持續一個季度。您談到了您對今年年底結束的信心，並且可能更清楚地了解了 25 財年醫療保健業務銷售的假設。隨著我們度過這一年，它顯然對混合產生了重要影響。謝謝。

Good question, Adam. I mean, first of all, I'll say about healthcare is, as far as I'm concerned, a real gem in our in our portfolio, let's start right there. And if we're challenged with the health care category, it would really just be on the back of the normalization that the category is seeing after a major dislocation that the category has gone through in the more recent past. And that dislocation is now coming to an end with the category essentially rightsizing their inventories, that's what we're seeing.

好問題，亞當。我的意思是，首先，就我而言，我要說的是，醫療保健是我們投資組合中真正的瑰寶，讓我們從這裡開始。如果我們在醫療保健類別方面面臨挑戰，那實際上只是在該類別在最近經歷了重大混亂之後所看到的正常化的背景下。這種錯位現在即將結束，該類別基本上正在調整其庫存規模，這就是我們所看到的。

So we don't have any concerns overall in the stability and the attractiveness of this category to start right there. But what we're going through until the end of the calendar on the back of what we know right now is really just a continued de-stocking. I can confirm that the high-level estimates that you're doing on volumes is correct in terms of high single digits being down in the more recent past.

因此，我們總體上對該類別的穩定性和吸引力沒有任何擔憂，可以從這裡開始。但就我們目前所知，直到日曆結束之前我們所經歷的實際上只是持續的去庫存。我可以確認，就最近的高個位數下降而言，您對交易量所做的高級估計是正確的。

I think that the destocking that we've seen in Q4 is probably slightly better than what we've seen Q3. And again, on the back of everything that we know the destocking will come to an end by the end of the calendar. That would be based on various conversations that we have with our customers and what they're confirming that currently is happening in their business.

我認為我們在第四季看到的去庫存可能比第三季稍微好一些。再說一遍，據我們所知，去庫存將在日曆結束時結束。這將基於我們與客戶的各種對話以及他們確認的當前業務中正在發生的情況。

Now in the back half, then when the de-stocking has to come and it has come to an end, we're expecting a better volume performance with the business, as you would imagine. We would definitely have no concerns to believe that healthcare can return to growth rates that are in line with the historical averages of sort of mid-single digits growth.

現在在下半年，當去庫存必須到來並且已經結束時，我們預計業務會有更好的銷售表現，正如你所想像的那樣。我們絕對不會擔心醫療保健能夠恢復到與中個位數成長的歷史平均值相符的成長率。

The final point that I'd like to make it maybe on health care is, as I'm thinking through it, how to best answer your question, the destocking that we're seeing in health care, it's actually when you look at the numbers, it is quite similar to some other categories that we've seen beforehand. It's just that health care started later, pretty much in Q2 last year and has started mostly with medical -- on the medical side, which which we've cycled through right now. And then with the phase delay, we've seen some impact on the pharma side, which we're now crunching through. And that will come to an end by the end of the calendar, as I said before.

我想在醫療保健方面提出的最後一點是，正如我正在思考的那樣，如何最好地回答你的問題，我們在醫療保健領域看到的去庫存，實際上是當你看到數字，它與我們之前看到的其他一些類別非常相似。只是醫療保健起步較晚，幾乎是在去年第二季度，而且主要是從醫療方面開始的——在醫療方面，我們現在已經循環過了。然後，隨著階段的延遲，我們看到了對製藥方面的一些影響，我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。正如我之前所說，這將在日曆結束時結束。

And maybe, Adam, just to pick up on the mix point. Yes, you're quite right. Obviously, the mix is unfavorable in Q4. And with the destocking continuing, if we think about our guidance assumptions for the FY25, we would expect that negative mix to continue in the first half. But then as we head into the second half, it will obviously improve as we go through the destocking. So on a full year basis, we probably expect the mix to be more neutral.

也許，亞當，只是為了了解混合點。是的，你說得很對。顯然，第四季的混合情況不利。隨著去庫存的繼續，如果我們考慮對 25 財年的指導假設，我們預計這種負面組合將在上半年繼續存在。但當我們進入下半年時，隨著我們去庫存，情況會明顯改善。因此，從全年來看，我們可能會預期這種組合會更加中性。

Daniel Kang, CLSA.

丹尼爾康，里昂證券。

Good morning, everyone. Just a quick question on capital management, I noticed that the Board has chosen to refrain from share buyback buyback at this point. Can you talk us through the decision there? Is the reflection of wanting to see leverage ratio is lower or is it a reflection of more confidence in the M&A pipeline?

大家早安。關於資本管理的一個簡單問題，我注意到董事會目前選擇不進行股票回購。您能告訴我們那裡的決定嗎？是希望看到槓桿率更低的反映還是對併購管道更有信心的反映？

Hi, thanks, Daniel, This is Michael, I can take that one for you. Look, we've still got a little bit more to go of a buyback that was that was approved earlier on. So we didn't do that in Q4. And that's really a function of we have a good M&A pipeline and there's opportunities there is always. So we elected to not do the buyback.

你好，謝謝，丹尼爾，我是邁克爾，我可以幫你拿一份。聽著，我們還有更多的時間來進行早期批准的回購。所以我們在第四季沒有這樣做。這確實是因為我們擁有良好的併購管道，機會始終存在。所以我們選擇不回購。

And from a capital allocation standpoint, I mean the buyback is just one element of that. Clearly, the strong cash flow, we directed CapEx first, to grow the business organically. We continue to pay a dividend and you saw us increase the dividend again, and then [bit] free cash flow leftover. And clearly, we'd like to invest that first and foremost in M&A because that's where we get the greatest return. And if that's not available, then the buyback is really the next alternative.

從資本配置的角度來看，我的意思是回購只是其中的要素。顯然，由於現金流強勁，我們首先引導資本支出，以有機地發展業務。我們繼續支付股息，你看到我們再次增加股息，然後[位]自由現金流剩餘。顯然，我們希望首先將其投資於併購，因為這是我們獲得最大回報的地方。如果這不可用，那麼回購實際上是下一個選擇。

So the buyback is -- and obviously, it's a function of the cash flow performance as well. So for now, we haven't called out a buyback to '25 is still going to face a little bit left over there to do. But we've got a good pipeline of M&A activity. We're expecting the cash flow in the business to be solid through the year as we've guided to $900 million to $1 billion. So we'll see how things play out as we work our way through the year. If there is capacity to do the buyback, we'll do it.

因此，回購顯然也是現金流表現的函數。因此，目前我們還沒有呼籲對 25 年進行回購，但仍然面臨著一些剩餘的事情要做。但我們有良好的併購活動管道。我們預計今年該業務的現金流將保持穩定，預計將達到 9 億至 10 億美元。因此，我們將在這一年的工作中看看事情會如何發展。如果有能力回購，我們就會回購。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Good evening. We've come off two, three years of pretty sharp cost inflation that you had to absorb and pass on to your customers. Just wondering as you look at the '25 guidance, what kind of cost inflation, raw material inflation, resin assumptions are baked in to the full year guidance? And how might it be different or not different than what you've kind of experienced over the last couple of years?

晚安.我們已經擺脫了兩三年相當嚴重的成本通膨，你必須吸收這種成本並將其轉嫁給你的客戶。只是想知道，當您查看“25 年指導”時，全年指導中包含了哪些成本通膨、原材料通膨、樹脂假設？它與您過去幾年的經歷有何不同或沒有不同？

Hey, you're quite right. I mean we've been in a high inflationary environment. Clearly, inflation is abating, though, is still elevated level, but clearly abating. I think from where we sit today, the main area inflation now is really just in the labor side of things, and that that's probably in that kind of mid-single digit range, and we'd expect that again in FY25. But our cost inflation in the quarter four was about $35 million or $190 million for the year versus $340 million in the prior year. So you can see that it is abating. And I think the main area really now it's just on the labor side as we look forward.

嘿，你說得很對。我的意思是我們一直處於高通膨環境。顯然，通膨正在減弱，儘管仍處於較高水平，但明顯減弱。我認為，從我們今天的立場來看，現在主要領域的通膨實際上只是在勞動力方面，而且可能在中等個位數範圍內，我們預計 25 財年將再次出現這種情況。但我們第四季的成本通膨約為 3,500 萬美元，即當年的 1.9 億美元，而去年同期為 3.4 億美元。所以你可以看到它正在減弱。我認為，正如我們所期望的那樣，現在的主要領域確實是在勞動力方面。

From a raw materials standpoint, look, it's a pretty benign environment at the moment. I think in Q4, probably overall. And you know, we buy a broad basket of raw materials and across multiple geographies across the globe. I mean, as I think about Q4, probably in general, it was up kind of low single digit, well, I would say and but it was a bit mixed by by raw material types. So resins up a little, aluminium up, more mid to high, but then, films and liquids were down.

從原料的角度來看，目前的環境相當良好。我認為在第四季度，可能總體而言。您知道，我們在全球多個地區購買大量原料。我的意思是，正如我對第四季度的看法，可能總體而言，它的漲幅有點低個位數，嗯，我想說，但原材料類型有點混合。因此，樹脂價格略有上漲，鋁價格上漲，中等到高位，但隨後薄膜和液體價格下跌。

So on balance, it's not a not a material impact to the business. And from an EBIT standpoint, we really for the year, we're pretty neutral on the raw material side. As we look into '25, really, as we look into the first quarter, again, where we're seeing a pretty benign environment. If I think about North America and Europe, raw materials typically look pretty flat in the first quarter. Perhaps Asia is the one area where we might see some slight increases in raw materials.

因此，總的來說，這對業務不會產生實質影響。從息稅前利潤的角度來看，今年我們在原物料方面非常中立。當我們回顧 25 年時，真的，當我們回顧第一季時，我們再次看到了一個相當良性的環境。如果我考慮北美和歐洲，第一季的原料通常看起來相當平淡。也許亞洲是我們可能會看到原材料略有增加的地區。

But again, generally, I'd say the basket of goods is pretty benign across the globe. So that's what we've factored into our -- guidance assumptions and of course, we've given you a range of growth in the guidance assumptions, kind of 3% to 8%. Obviously, raw materials is a factor within that. I mean, we we pass through raw materials contractually, but there can be a lag. So that's just one element that could get us to the bottom or upper end of that range.

但總的來說，我想說這籃子商品在全球都是相當良性的。這就是我們在指導假設中考慮的因素，當然，我們在指導假設中給出了一系列成長，大約是 3% 到 8%。顯然，原材料是其中的一個因素。我的意思是，我們按照合約規定傳遞原材料，但可能會有滯後。因此，這只是一個可以讓我們達到該範圍的底部或上限的元素。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you can hear me. Can you comment on the outlook for beverage in North America and when you expect the volumes to turn more positive?Thank you so much.

大家好。感謝您提出我的問題。希望你能聽到我的聲音。您能否評論一下北美飲料的前景以及您預計銷售何時會變得更加積極？

Hey, George, it is PK, I'll take that question. Look, beverage North America is a little more discretionary than many of the other categories that we serve, think about the isotonics category and as such, we're seeing in the current environment, if you just look at scanner data, the sort of low single digit to mid-single digit decline in that in that category, and that's what we're facing in the market right now.

嘿，喬治，這是PK，我來回答這個問題。看，飲料北美比我們服務的許多其他類別更具自由裁量權，想想等滲透壓類別，因此，我們在當前環境中看到，如果你只看掃描儀數據，那種低該類別的個位數至中個位數下降，這就是我們目前在市場上面臨的情況。

And on top of that, I would say that our performance is also somewhat impacted by our exposure to customers that are in their totality, underperforming the market, sort of some low single digit, if you want. And that sort of rolls up to our own volume performance. And on your question, how do we expect that to continue? I think as we're looking at '25, it will, to a large extent, come down to the question of how consumer demand developing in that category going forward.

最重要的是，我想說，我們的業績在某種程度上也受到了我們對客戶的影響，這些客戶總體上表現不佳，如果你願意的話，可以說是低個位數。這會影響到我們自己的銷售表現。關於你的問題，我們預期這種情況將如何持續？我認為，當我們展望 25 世紀時，很大程度上將歸結為消費者需求在該類別中未來如何發展的問題。

I think we've got to be realistic here. And we've got to say that, as you know, we're not we're not overly ambitious in terms of expecting the volumes to turn around in the near future. We would hope that that's the case. But as we're looking into the next year, I think we're being realistic about that. And it has mostly to do with the discretionary sort of nature of the category that we're exposed to. So that's how I would answer that question. I hope it helps.

我認為我們必須現實一點。我們必須說，正如您所知，我們並沒有過於雄心勃勃地期望銷量在不久的將來有所回升。我們希望情況確實如此。但當我們展望明年時，我認為我們對此持現實態度。這主要與我們所接觸的類別的自由裁量性質有關。這就是我回答這個問題的方式。我希望它有幫助。

James Wilson, Jarden Australia.

詹姆斯威爾遜，澳洲花園。

Morning, guys. Just heading into FY25, can you give us a bit of a sense of the quantum of the $400 million cost out that you've managed to do over FY24 that will have to come back into the business as volumes pick up?

早安，夥計們。即將進入 2025 財年，您能否讓我們了解一下您在 2024 財年設法支出的 4 億美元成本，隨著銷量的增加，這些成本必須重新投入到業務中？

Sure, James, it's Mike. Maybe I can take that one. As you said, we've been pretty focused on cost in '24 and pleased with where we ended up, we've generated savings in excess of $440 million, which includes $35 million of benefits from the structural program that we put in place as well. And if you think about where that's coming from, there's two elements to it. Obviously, the operating performance of the business here, we've been laser focused on managing our shift patterns, taking whole ships out where we can and flexing the operational costs of the business to the lower volumes.

當然，詹姆斯，是麥克。也許我可以接受那個。正如您所說，我們在 24 年非常關注成本，並對最終結果感到滿意，我們節省了超過 4.4 億美元，其中包括我們實施的結構性計劃帶來的 3500 萬美元的收益出色地。如果你考慮它的來源，你會發現它有兩個要素。顯然，就這裡業務的營運績效而言，我們一直專注於管理我們的輪班模式，盡可能將整艘船運出，並將業務的營運成本降低到較低的水平。

Procurement has been a big driver in this environment. Obviously, we've been working hard through our global reach and scale on that front. And discretionary spend has been managed quite tightly. And obviously, we had a strong year in 2014, we'll be lapping some of that. But as we look into '25, the structural benefits of $35 million, there will be a further $15 million '25. So that completes that program where we were going to invest $170 million in cash and get the $50 million out. So we're well down the path of that and confident in that space.

在這種環境下，採購一直是重要的推動因素。顯然，我們一直在努力利用我們在這方面的全球影響力和規模。可自由支配支出的管理也相當嚴格。顯然，我們在 2014 年度過了強勁的一年，我們將取得一些成果。但當我們研究 25 年時，3,500 萬美元的結構性效益，25 年還將有 1,500 萬美元。這樣就完成了我們計劃投資 1.7 億美元現金並取出 5000 萬美元的計劃。因此，我們正在沿著這條道路前進，並對這個領域充滿信心。

And then on the balance, I mean, we continue to get procurement benefits and we'll continue to manage the operations. But clearly, as the volumes increase, which is what we saw in Q4, we'll have to flex the labor back up to manage those high volumes that we're anticipating. That said, it won't be linear. So we'll be able -- we're more efficient today, we'll continue to see benefits from the cost takeout that we've had just in the efficiency as we deal with those increasing volumes working through that at the next year. So hopefully, that helps.

總的來說，我的意思是，我們將繼續獲得採購收益，並且我們將繼續管理營運。但顯然，隨著產量的增加，正如我們在第四季度看到的那樣，我們將不得不重新調整勞動力來管理我們預期的大量產量。也就是說，它不會是線性的。因此，我們今天的效率會更高，我們將繼續看到我們在效率方面所獲得的成本削減帶來的好處，因為我們將在明年處理那些不斷增加的數量。希望這會有所幫助。

Brook Campbell-Crawford, Barrenjoey.

布魯克·坎貝爾-克勞福德，巴倫喬伊。

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one for Michael, please, just around the at [D&A] charge in the fourth quarter was quite a bit lower than then we were thinking. It was down about 8% year over year, 6% quarter on quarter. Do you mind just commenting on what sort of drove that in a quarter? Should we really just be annualizing that fourth quarter D&A charge when thinking about FY25 or is there anything to look that can help you there?

是的，晚上好。感謝您提出我的問題。請為麥可簡單介紹一下，第四季的 [D&A] 費用比我們想像的要低很多。年減約8%，季減6%。您介意只評論一下在一個季度內是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？在考慮 25 財年時，我們真的應該將第四季度的 D&A 費用按年化嗎？

Look in the quarter, while for the year, as you said, D&A was down kind of $7 million or there abouts, not material. I mean, it's really a factor of a couple of things. Obviously, we reduced CapEx spend, so you've got a little less there. And also with the restructuring we've been doing, we've closed seven plants for and restructures as well. So clearly some assets have come out of the business from that front. And there's been some other minor adjustments here and there. So as I look forward, I'd still expect depreciation to be in that kind of $400 million to $420 million range on an annual basis, which is some again, as we build CapEx spending '25 of them, as I mentioned in my taking notes, we are expecting to increase CapEx again in '25 as we work our way through higher volumes go, that will normalize some of that depreciation.

看看這個季度，而今年，正如你所說，D&A 減少了 700 萬美元左右，但這並不重要。我的意思是，這實際上是由幾個因素決定的。顯然，我們減少了資本支出，因此您的資本支出減少。此外，透過我們一直在進行的重組，我們也關閉了七家工廠並進行了重組。很明顯，有些資產是從這方面產生的。還有一些其他的細微調整。因此，當我展望未來時，我仍然預計每年折舊將在4 億至4.2 億美元的範圍內，這又是一些，因為我們建立了其中的25 筆資本支出，正如我在我的報告中提到的那樣指出，我們預計在 25 年隨著產量的增加而再次增加資本支出，這將使部分折舊正常化。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自理查德·約翰遜和杰弗里斯的對話。

Thanks very much. PK, I have been thinking a little bit about the business kind of beyond the volume normalization process and in the nearer term, the benefits your profitability is getting from the structural -- the restructuring program that you've put in place. Is it possible to get a sense from you when you look across your portfolio which, of course, is very broad from both the category but a geographic perspective, are there areas that you think that could do a bit of refreshing on the one hand or the other hand, maybe structurally challenged and long term might actually be a drag on the growth that you think the business could ultimately produce? Thanks.

非常感謝。 PK，我一直在思考業務量正常化流程以外的業務，以及在近期內，您的獲利能力從結構性重組計劃中獲得的好處。當你瀏覽你的作品集時，是否有可能從你那裡得到一些感覺，當然，從類別和地理角度來看，這些投資組合都非常廣泛，你認為是否有一些領域可以做一些令人耳目一新的工作，或者另一方面，也許結構性挑戰和長期實際可能會拖累您認為業務最終可能產生的成長？謝謝。

Yeah, hi, Richard. I wonder how I can best sort of answer that question. You're asking about refreshing certain areas of the portfolio and seeing potential drags on the performance of the business going forward. I got to -- first of all, I have to remind everyone here that the position that I'm in that said, it's hard for me right now as an interim to sort of formulate views on the long-term strategy of the company, which that sort of touches on when you go to the portfolio.

是的，嗨，理查德。我想知道如何才能最好地回答這個問題。您要求更新投資組合的某些領域，並看到對未來業務績效的潛在拖累。我必須——首先，我必須提醒大家，我現在所處的位置是，作為一個過渡時期，我很難對公司的長期策略形成看法，當你查看投資組合時，就會涉及到這一點。

But in essence, having said that, I believe that the business should continue to focus on categories that are more attractive than others. And that would be a starting point. You know that we feel strongly about focusing the business on certain areas that are potentially value-driven, therefore higher margins and offering better growth than others. In flexibles, the problem is always or the challenge is you can be everything to everybody, and that has never really played out. I'm a big fan of focusing the business of those areas that are more attractive to us.

但本質上，話雖如此，我認為企業應該繼續專注於比其他產品更有吸引力的品類。這將是一個起點。您知道，我們強烈希望將業務重點放在潛在價值驅動的某些領域，從而比其他領域獲得更高的利潤並提供更好的成長。在靈活的工作中，問題始終是或挑戰是你可以成為每個人的一切，但這種情況從未真正發生過。我非常喜歡將業務集中在那些對我們更有吸引力的領域。

Now, the ones that I would call out here as just as examples is the protein category that we've talked about in the past, which breaks out into meat and dairy, cheese to be to be a little more specific. We do like coffee or particularly premium coffee, we do like healthcare. While I did say that, we're going through the short term normalization of the business, and we like pet food and so on and so forth.

現在，我在這裡舉出的例子是我們過去討論過的蛋白質類別，具體來說，它分為肉類和乳製品，還有起司。我們確實喜歡咖啡或特別優質的咖啡，我們確實喜歡醫療保健。雖然我確實這麼說過，但我們正在經歷業務的短期正常化，我們喜歡寵物食品等等。

So that's a good starting point when you sort of go through the through the portfolio, you may find other categories that are less attractive and that is something that we sort of need to strategically think through. In terms of geographies, I like the exposure of the business between developed and emerging markets. And there, we would want to continue the journey that we've been on. You've seen us make some acquisitions also in the past.

因此，當您瀏覽整個作品集時，這是一個很好的起點，您可能會發現其他不太有吸引力的類別，而這是我們需要策略性思考的事情。就地理而言，我喜歡已開發市場和新興市場之間的業務接觸。在那裡，我們希望繼續我們已經踏上的旅程。您過去也看到我們進行了一些收購。

If I just look at the healthcare business that we acquired in China, the flexibles business in India, we made an acquisition in Eastern Europe, which is which is positive, just to mention a few examples. So I think that's that's what we're doing. This is the way how we're thinking about it, and we need to continue to think about it. And Adam and I hope that provides a bit of color to the questions.

如果我只看一下我們在中國收購的醫療保健業務、在印度的靈活業務、我們在東歐的收購，這是積極的，僅舉幾個例子。所以我認為這就是我們正在做的事情。這就是我們思考這個問題的方式，我們需要繼續思考它。亞當和我希望這能為這些問題提供一些色彩。

John Purtell, Macquarie.

約翰‧珀特爾，麥格理。

Hi, Peter and Michael, hope you both well. Question regarding the flow of volumes through the quarter, where did the exit rate in that? If you are able to make any comment on develop markets and emerging markets within that?

嗨，彼得和邁克爾，祝你們一切順利。關於本季銷售流量的問題，其中的退出率在哪裡？您能否對其中的已開發市場和新興市場發表評論？

Yes, I'm happy to take that question. Look, I'll start out by saying I'm not a big believer in commenting on monthly volume performances. You know, because you have you have big swings in there and you can't really read too much into it. And I think that a quarter is better of it of an indicator for actual performance, and I would like to stay on that level. So 1% overall growth in the fourth quarter is a good indication for the momentum that we carry forward into fiscal '25.

是的，我很高興回答這個問題。聽著，我首先要說的是，我不太相信對月度銷量表現進行評論。你知道，因為那裡有很大的波動，你無法真正解讀太多。我認為四分之一是更好的實際績效指標，我希望能維持在這個水準。因此，第四季度 1% 的整體成長很好地表明了我們將延續到 25 財年的勢頭。

And now to the second part of the question, developed markets versus emerging markets. We have in the past quarters seen and growth in the emerging markets like you would expect, the developed markets were a little more muted. And what's been encouraging in the fourth quarter is that the developed markets also returned back to growth. And I say that particularly encouraged by the fact that they also have the large exposure to health care where we have seen continued destocking. So that's quite encouraging for us. So again, developed markets performing better. Despite the healthcare destocking, emerging markets continued to grow, and that's the momentum that we carry forward. I hope that helps.

現在討論問題的第二部分，已開發市場與新興市場。在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到新興市場的成長正如您所預期的那樣，而已開發市場的成長則更加平靜。第四季令人鼓舞的是，已開發市場也恢復了成長。我說，這一事實尤其令人鼓舞，因為他們也大量接觸醫療保健領域，而我們看到庫存持續減少。這對我們來說非常令人鼓舞。同樣，已開發市場表現較好。儘管醫療保健去庫存，新興市場仍在持續成長，這就是我們發揚的勢頭。我希望這有幫助。

Cameron McDonald, E&P.

卡梅倫·麥克唐納，勘探與生產。

Good morning, guys. I'm just going back to sort of the other the structural questions that were asked before, we're seeing some changes in preference shift around substrate towards aluminium cans, particularly. Is that providing any sort of headwind to the beverages segment that you've got it, and or any of the regulatory changes in the European market that could also be providing a bit of a challenge going forward, if you can comment on those, please?

早安，夥計們。我只是回到之前提出的其他結構性問題，我們看到圍繞基材的偏好發生了一些變化，特別是轉向鋁罐。這是否會給您所擁有的飲料領域帶來任何阻力，或者歐洲市場的任何監管變化也可能給未來帶來一些挑戰，如果您能對此發表評論，請？

Yes, happy to do that. I mean, these are two big questions or one big question maybe, another one that I can take first, that's a little easier to answer.

是的，很高興這樣做。我的意思是，這是兩個大問題，或者可能是一個大問題，我可以先考慮另一個問題，這更容易回答。

Let me go to the beverage question first. Substrates in the beverage side of the business, they do coexist, particularly between aluminum and PET, and they both have their place. And the PET typically is -- you see that on-the-go consumption, resealable, and that's where PET sort of finds its home. So in the different categories and beverage, you find PET or cans coexist our aluminum coexists. There is one category that where they both sort of compete with each other and that would be in the subsegment of CSD on the beverage side.

我先來說飲料問題。在飲料行業的基材中，它們確實共存，特別是在鋁和 PET 之間，它們都有自己的位置。 PET 通常是——您可以看到，可以在旅途中消費，可重新密封，這就是 PET 的用武之地。所以在不同的品類和飲料中，你會發現PET或罐頭共存，我們的鋁共存。他們在一個類別中相互競爭，並且屬於 CSD 在飲料方面的細分市場。

Now over long periods of time, we have seen pretty much a constant share between the two substrates in that category. In the more recent past, given the more discretionary environment that we're looking at and consumers are shifting to the better value option. And those tend to be aluminum cans, which are sold in multipacks through the big box stores and the channel. And because when you take a look at the price points, they seem to be more attractive. So in the more recent times, we've seen a bit of a share shift to cans on that end. And then we'll have to see how that plays out as the environment normalizes.

現在，在很長一段時間內，我們已經看到該類別中兩種基材之間的份額幾乎恆定。在最近的過去，考慮到我們正在考慮的更自由裁量的環境，消費者正在轉向更有價值的選擇。這些往往是鋁罐，透過大型商店和通路以多包裝形式出售。因為當你看一下價格點時，它們似乎更具吸引力。因此，最近，我們看到了一些份額轉向罐裝食品。然後我們必須看看隨著環境正常化，情況會如何發展。

But it's not been a big trend for us that significantly impacts the volumes, because it's really just us one subcategory. So that said, to the second part of the question, regulatory developments, which is a different animal, but likewise, really important for our business. What we've seen in Europe, particularly the packaging and packaging waste regulations come through, and we are obviously taking a close look at that. This is a regulatory development that, to be honest with you, welcome.

但這對我們來說並不是一個對銷售產生重大影響的大趨勢，因為它實際上只是我們的一個子類別。也就是說，對於問題的第二部分，監管的發展，這是一種不同的動物，但同樣對我們的業務非常重要。我們在歐洲看到的情況，特別是包裝和包裝廢棄物法規的出台，我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。老實說，這是一項值得歡迎的監管發展。

And because at the end of the day, all these initiatives tried to do one thing and tried to accomplish one thing which is trying to keep plastic waste out of the amount of the environment. And that's very much aligned with our targets here as a company and comes back to our efforts in terms of the sustainability or on the sustainability side.

因為歸根結底，所有這些舉措都試圖做一件事，並試圖完成一件事，那就是試圖將塑膠廢物排除在環境之外。這與我們作為一家公司的目標非常一致，並回到我們在永續發展或永續發展方面的努力。

The developments there that help us essentially move the industry faster to an end point that we're more than happy to support and that we feel we're very well placed to support. We have made great progress on developing more sustainable products, which are designed to be recyclable. And the regulation that we've seen essentially moves the whole industry to the concept of circularity that we want to support and that we want to get in place. So we're supportive of the regulatory developments there in Europe, but also elsewhere. And then we welcome it.

那裡的發展本質上幫助我們將行業更快地推向終點，我們非常樂意支持，我們認為我們非常有能力支持。我們在開發更永續的產品方面取得了巨大進展，這些產品旨在可回收。我們所看到的監管實質上使整個產業轉向了我們想要支持並實施的循環概念。因此，我們支持歐洲以及其他地方的監管發展。然後我們歡迎它。

Keith Chau, MST Financial Services.

Keith Chau，MST 金融服務公司。

Thanks for taking my follow-up. One for Michael. Just the restructuring costs seem to have subsided a touch in the fourth quarter. I think there are some restructuring costs to go in FY25 below the line. Just wondering if you can give us a sense, Michael, on what the drag on that will be on cash? Thank you.

感謝您接受我的跟進。一張是給麥可的。僅重組成本似乎在第四季有所下降。我認為 25 財年將有一些重組成本低於該線。邁克爾，我只是想知道你能否給我們一個了解，這會對現金造成什麼拖累？謝謝。

Look, we are -- the program was going to be around $170 million in cash out. We've spent net today around $110. So we've got FY25 will pretty much finish the program, So that is another $60 million-odd to go, which you'd expect to see in the adjusted out of the cash flow.

看，我們 - 該計劃將帶來約 1.7 億美元的現金支出。我們今天的淨花費約為 110 美元。因此，我們預計 25 財年將基本完成該計劃，因此還需要花費 6000 萬美元左右，您預計會在調整後的現金流中看到這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nathan Reilly, UBS.

內森‧賴利，瑞銀集團。

Pete, I'm just curious how much spare capacity do you have in the existing manufacturing footprint to respond to demand growth, really just in terms of managing a [sheet] flexibility?

皮特，我只是好奇你們現有的製造足跡中有多少閒置產能來應對需求增長，實際上只是在管理[紙張]靈活性方面？

It's a great question, Nathan. You got to distinguish between sort of manned capacity and sort of machine capacity that we have in place. That's the way how sort of we think about it. On the manned capacity side, we're challenging ourselves in the business really hard to sort of balance that with the actual demand profile, as you would expect, right. So from a manned capacity side, we're pretty much balanced. And that's where we flex. When we say we flex, that's what we're flexing.

這是一個很好的問題，內森。你必須區分我們現有的載人能力和機器能力。這就是我們思考這個問題的方式。在載人能力方面，我們在業務中挑戰自己，很難在載人能力與實際需求狀況之間取得平衡，正如您所期望的那樣，對吧。因此，從載人能力方面來看，我們相當平衡。這就是我們發揮作用的地方。當我們說我們要彎曲時，我們就是在彎曲。

Now, if you -- when you look at the volume development over the more recent past, and you know that we've gone through a pretty tough patch here, obviously, volumes overall have come down. And therefore, the machine capacity offers up some some headroom for additional volumes, which is encouraging for the future when the volumes come back. What we do have a challenge as a business then is to flex up again and to operationalize essentially the additional machine capacity that we require.

現在，如果你看看最近的銷量發展，你知道我們已經經歷了一段相當艱難的時期，顯然，整體銷量已經下降。因此，機器容量為額外產量提供了一些空間，這對於未來產量恢復時令人鼓舞。作為一家企業，我們面臨的挑戰是再次靈活起來，並基本上實現我們所需的額外機器容量的運作。

Now there always -- that's going to be my last comment on that question, there's always a challenge because no reality is you never have the capacity where you need it. So so that never plays out in a perfect world. And you know, particularly where we're well positioned with a compelling value proposition, we are full in terms of our capacity, very often times also for machine capacity standpoint, but that's something that we need to manage on a tactical day-to-day business.

現在總是——這將是我對這個問題的最後評論，總是存在挑戰，因為現實是你永遠不具備你需要的能力。所以這永遠不會在完美的世界中發生。你知道，特別是當我們處於有利地位並擁有令人信服的價值主張時，我們的能力是滿的，很多時候也從機器能力的角度來看，但這是我們需要在戰術上進行日常管理的事。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for the question. And answer session. I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，我們現在就這個問題了。並答疑會。現在，我將把電話轉回給管理階層，讓他們發表結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for the interest in the company and for joining the call. I think the most important thing for me is to really just go back and -- go back to the key messages for the call. We really have a strong quarter. Good questions but overall, the company is, I think, in a good spot with the with the momentum that we have developed in the fourth quarter to go into '25. We feel pretty good about where we where we stand and where we sit in pretty good about the guidance that we have out there. And we're looking at a good year to come. So thanks very much for the interest on the call and talk to you soon.

感謝大家對公司的興趣並加入電話會議。我認為對我來說最重要的事情就是回去——回到電話會議的關鍵訊息。我們確實有一個強勁的季度。很好的問題，但總的來說，我認為，隨著我們在第四季度發展進入 25 年的勢頭，該公司處於一個良好的位置。我們對我們所處的位置和我們所處的位置感覺非常好，對我們現有的指導也非常滿意。我們期待著美好的一年到來。非常感謝您對此次電話會議的興趣，我們將盡快與您聯繫。

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。