阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Planning and Investor Relations, Ryan St. John.

    早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加阿拉斯加航空集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)今天的通話正在錄音,將來可在 alaskaair.com 上重播。 (操作員指示)我現在想將電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團財務、規劃和投資者關係副總裁 Ryan St. John。

  • Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

    Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, we issued our earnings release along with several accompanying slides detailing our results, which are available at investor.alaskaair.com. On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

    謝謝您,接線員,早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上,我們發布了收益報告以及幾張詳細介紹我們業績的隨附幻燈片,這些幻燈片可在 Investor.alaskaair.com 上取得。在今天的電話會議上,您將聽到本、安德魯和肖恩的最新消息。我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在電話問答部分在線回答您的問題。

  • This morning, Air Group reported a fourth quarter GAAP net loss of $2 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $38 million. As a reminder, our comments today include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results. Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found within our SEC filings.

    今天上午,Air Group 公佈第四季 GAAP 淨虧損 200 萬美元。不包括特殊項目和按市值計價的燃油對沖調整,Air Group 報告調整後淨利潤為 3800 萬美元。提醒一下,我們今天的評論包括有關未來業績的前瞻性陳述,這可能與我們的實際結果有重大差異。有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。

  • We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we have provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release. Over to you, Ben.

    我們也將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標,例如調整後的收益和單位成本(不包括燃料)。像往常一樣,我們在今天的財報中提供了最直接可比較的公認會計原則和非公認會計原則衡量指標之間的調節表。交給你了,本。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Alaska Airlines closed out another great year in 2023. Before we get to those results, I want to address the recent grounding of our 737 MAX 9 fleet. I am deeply sorry to everyone on board Flight 1282 for what they experienced on January 5 and to all of those who have seen their travel plans disrupted by cancellations.

    謝謝瑞安,大家早安。阿拉斯加航空在 2023 年又結束了美好的一年。在公佈這些結果之前,我想先談談我們 737 MAX 9 機隊最近停飛的問題。對於 1 月 5 日所經歷的一切,我向 1282 航班上的每個人以及所有因航班取消而導致旅行計劃被打亂的人深表歉意。

  • We are looking forward to returning to the reliable service you know and expect from us. Our #1 value and our absolute priority is and will always be safety. As you may know, following the accident, we proactively grounded our 65 MAX 9 aircraft, which was followed by a directive by the FAA to do so for all U.S.-based operators of the fleet. This had a material operational and financial impact on our business with approximately 1/3 of our January capacity impacted by the grounding.

    我們期待再次為您提供您所了解和期望的可靠服務。我們的第一價值觀和絕對優先事項是並且永遠是安全。如您所知,事故發生後,我們主動停飛了 65 架 MAX 9 飛機,隨後美國聯邦航空局 (FAA) 指示所有駐美國機隊營運商停飛。這對我們的業務產生了重大的營運和財務影響,大約 1/3 的 1 月份產能受到停飛的影響。

  • Additionally, we believe it is likely that several aircraft deliveries could be delayed which would further affect our full year capacity plans, which we initially anticipated would be between 3% and 5% over 2023 levels. Our primary focus right now is the safety of our guests our people and our fleet. We remain committed to working diligently alongside the NTSB, FAA and Boeing to return our aircraft safely to service and ensure this never happens again.

    此外,我們認為幾架飛機的交付可能會被推遲,這將進一步影響我們的全年運力計劃,我們最初預計該計劃將比 2023 年的水平增長 3% 至 5%。我們現在的首要關注點是我們的客人、員工和機隊的安全。我們仍然致力於與 NTSB、FAA 和波音公司一起努力工作,使我們的飛機安全地恢復服務,並確保這種情況不會再發生。

  • As a longtime valued partner, we remain fully committed to our relationship with Boeing, but we also intend to hold them accountable. There is work to be done but we have the utmost confidence with FAA oversight as well as our own that Boeing will emerge with improved quality processes as a better and safer manufacturer. I also want to take a moment to thank our employees for the response to this event and its aftermath.

    作為長期重要的合作夥伴,我們仍然完全致力於維護與波音的關係,但我們也打算讓他們承擔責任。雖然還有很多工作要做,但我們對美國聯邦航空管理局和我們自己的監督充滿信心,並相信波音公司將透過改進的品質流程成為更好、更安全的製造商。我還想花一點時間感謝我們的員工對這事件及其後果的反應。

  • Safety and care are at the heart of everything we do, and our people continue to demonstrate the highest standards of professionalism and caring for our guests and each other. It has been a long and difficult few years since 2020, and I continue to be amazed at this resilient team of employees rallying to meet any challenges put in front of us. They demonstrate the Alaska Spirit each and every day.

    安全和關懷是我們一切工作的核心,我們的員工不斷展現出最高標準的專業精神以及對賓客和彼此的關懷。自 2020 年以來,這是漫長而艱難的幾年,我仍然對這支堅韌的員工團隊團結起來迎接我們面前的任何挑戰感到驚訝。他們每天都在展示阿拉斯加精神。

  • Now let's turn to our results. As I consider 2023 in its totality, I am proud of our company's accomplishments over the year. We competed for the industry's best margin, and we're close to achieving this goal in 2023, had it not been for surging international demand and a 1.5 point margin impact from higher West Coast fuel refining costs, both of which I believe are transitory impacts to our business, we would have once again posted the highest margin in the industry.

    現在讓我們看看我們的結果。當我全面考慮 2023 年時,我為我們公司在這一年的成就感到自豪。我們爭奪行業最佳利潤率,如果不是國際需求激增以及西海岸燃油精煉成本上漲對利潤率造成 1.5 個百分點的影響(我認為這兩者都是暫時的影響),我們將在 2023 年實現這一目標對於我們的業務來說,我們將再次創下行業最高的利潤率。

  • Given our strong year of performance, I'm proud to announce that our people will receive another great bonus as we will pay out approximately $200 million or on average 6.4% of an employees salary. This is the fourteenth time in the past 15 years that we paid above target for our performance-based pay program. Our cost execution was unmatched as we delivered the best CASMex result in the industry, down 2.6% year-over-year. This result was at the better end of our originally guided range first communicated in December of 2022. It's worth noting that throughout the course of the year, the majority of the industry revised cost guides higher while we did not.

    鑑於我們這一年的強勁表現,我很自豪地宣布,我們的員工將獲得另一筆巨額獎金,我們將支付約 2 億美元,平均為員工薪資的 6.4%。這是過去 15 年來我們第 14 次支付高於基於績效的薪酬計畫目標的薪酬。我們的成本執行力無與倫比,我們交付了業界最佳的 CASMex 結果,年減 2.6%。這一結果處於我們於 2022 年 12 月首次通報的最初指導範圍的較高端。值得注意的是,在這一年中,大多數行業都將成本指導修訂得更高,而我們卻沒有。

  • It proves to me our cost discipline DNA remains well embedded in the company's culture, and we will continue to, over the long term, have a durable competitive advantage over peers in this critical area of the business. We ran an excellent operation as we prioritize reliability in 2023, hitting record completion rates throughout the summer. We ended the year with a 99.3% completion rate even as we finally surpassed pre-pandemic levels of flying and manage the successful transition out of our Airbus fleet.

    這向我證明,我們的成本紀律 DNA 仍然深深植根於公司文化中,從長遠來看,我們將繼續在這一關鍵業務領域比同行擁有持久的競爭優勢。我們在 2023 年優先考慮可靠性,營運表現出色,整個夏季的完工率創下歷史新高。儘管我們最終超越了大流行前的飛行水平,並成功完成了空中巴士機隊的過渡,但我們以 99.3% 的完成率結束了這一年。

  • Our process-driven operational playbook works. We delivered the premium experience our guests have come to expect, and we have every expectation to continue to be a best-in-class operator in 2024 once our 9 MAX fleet returns to service. Our balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry with net leverage below our long-term target of 1.5x for the second year in a row. We restarted share repurchases in 2023 reaching $145 million or 3.5 million shares which is nearly 2x annual dilution.

    我們的流程驅動的營運手冊很有效。我們提供了客人所期望的優質體驗,並且我們完全期望在 9 MAX 機隊恢復運營後,在 2024 年繼續成為一流的運營商。我們的資產負債表仍然是業內最強勁的之一,淨槓桿率連續第二年低於我們 1.5 倍的長期目標。我們於 2023 年重新啟動股票回購,回購規模達到 1.45 億美元或 350 萬股,相當於年度稀釋率的近 2 倍。

  • Our strong balance sheet has provided the foundation for our growth and expansion over the years, including pursuing our proposed acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines. And as a quick update, we initiated the process of obtaining antitrust clearance by submitting our HSR filing this -- we've held initial conversations with the DOJ and the process will continue. We believe we have a stronger and differentiated case from JetBlue and Spirit and look forward to providing updates as they become available.

    我們強大的資產負債表為我們多年來的成長和擴張奠定了基礎,包括推進我們對夏威夷航空的擬議收購。作為快速更新,我們透過提交 HSR 備案啟動了獲得反壟斷許可的流程——我們已與司法部進行了初步對話,該流程將繼續進行。我們相信捷藍航空和精神航空擁有更強大且與眾不同的案例,並期待在更新後及時提供。

  • Lastly, we generated a record $10.4 billion in revenue, 46% of which comes from our premium loyalty and ancillary revenues. We brought in $1.6 billion in cash from our loyalty program and added 5 new global partners bringing our total partner portfolio to 30. Much of the hard work we put into 2023 will carry into 2024. Our priorities remain focused on one, on yielding safety and investing in our people and culture; two, elevating our commercial initiatives to deliver a premium brand experience as the only domestic-oriented carrier with a comprehensive offering and three maintaining a competitive cost structure.

    最後,我們創造了創紀錄的 104 億美元收入,其中 46% 來自我們的高級忠誠度和輔助收入。我們透過忠誠度計畫獲得了16 億美元現金,並增加了5 個新的全球合作夥伴,使我們的合作夥伴總數達到30 個。我們在2023 年投入的大部分努力都將延續到2024 年。我們的首要任務仍然集中在一個方面,即提供安全和保障。投資於我們的人民和文化;第二,提升我們的商業計劃,作為唯一一家提供全面服務的國內航空公司,提供優質的品牌體驗;第三,保持具有競爭力的成本結構。

  • The combination of which we know provides the foundation to drive durable financial performance. 2024 has begun under very difficult circumstances but we are optimistic about what we can accomplish this year. Absent the grounding event, we were heading for a significantly improved first quarter result versus 2023. As I stated in April of last year, we are committed to returning to breakeven or better results in the first quarter, and I believe we've made tangible progress toward that goal. Last year, we lost $115 million in this period, and we were on track to drive a 30% improvement this year as the network changes we made began taking effect.

    我們知道,這兩者的結合為推動持久的財務表現奠定了基礎。 2024 年是在非常困難的情況下開始的,但我們對今年能夠取得的成就感到樂觀。如果沒有停飛事件,我們的第一季業績將比2023 年顯著改善。正如我在去年4 月所說,我們致力於在第一季恢復盈虧平衡或更好的業績,我相信我們已經取得了切實的成果朝著這個目標取得進展。去年,我們在此期間損失了 1.15 億美元,隨著我們所做的網路變革開始生效,今年我們有望實現 30% 的改善。

  • As it has been for years, our goal is to concentrate our efforts on building preference for our airline through a premium experience and a fundamentally sound business model that endures over the long run. One that is resilient through it's cycles and creates durable financial returns for all our stakeholders. We made great progress in 2023, and we are well positioned to do much more in 2024. And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

    多年來,我們的目標是集中精力,透過優質的體驗和長期持續的基本健全的商業模式來建立人們對我們航空公司的偏好。它在整個週期中具有彈性,並為我們所有利害關係人創造持久的財務回報。我們在 2023 年取得了巨大進展,我們有能力在 2024 年做更多事情。接下來,我將把它交給安德魯。

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Today, my comments will focus on fourth quarter and full year results, along with Q1 revenue trends. Fourth quarter revenues reached $2.6 billion, up nearly 3% year-over-year, coming in slightly ahead of the midpoint of the revised guidance we put out in early December. Capacity finished the quarter up 13.6%. We saw a strong finish to the year in December with limited weather events and excellent operational performance to support holiday travel.

    謝謝,本,大家早安。今天,我的評論將重點放在第四季和全年業績,以及第一季的營收趨勢。第四季營收達 26 億美元,年增近 3%,略高於我們 12 月初發布的修訂後指引的中點。本季產能成長 13.6%。 12 月份,我們以有限的天氣事件和出色的營運表現為假日旅遊提供了強勁的收官。

  • This resulted in record traffic and coupon revenue up 7%. For the full year, we generated a record $10.4 billion in revenue, this was up 8.1% versus 2022 on capacity of 12.8%, resulting in full year unit revenue down approximately 4%. The improvement we saw in unit revenue through year-end showed a marked strengthening in our core revenue. Unit revenues improved from down 13% in August to down 9% in December.

    這導致流量創歷史新高,優惠券收入成長 7%。全年我們創造了創紀錄的 104 億美元收入,與 2022 年 12.8% 的產能相比成長了 8.1%,導致全年單位收入下降了約 4%。截至年底,我們看到單位收入的改善表明我們的核心收入顯著增強。單位收入從 8 月下降 13% 改善至 12 月下降 9%。

  • Notwithstanding we grew December capacity 2 points more than August year-over-year. This is a 4-point improvement, underscoring a strengthening pricing environment from continued normalization of international demand and industry adaptation to post-COVID demand realities. On managed business travel, consistent with what we've shared before, our belief is that we're seeing a slow and steady recovery.

    儘管如此,我們 12 月的產能仍比 8 月年增了 2 個百分點。這是 4 個百分點的進步,凸顯了國際需求持續正常化和產業適應新冠疫情後需求現實所帶來的不斷強化的定價環境。在商務旅行管理方面,與我們之前分享的內容一致,我們相信我們正在看到緩慢而穩定的復甦。

  • For example, in the fourth quarter, our portfolio saw a strong 15% year-over-year revenue growth on higher volumes and yields. Overall, business revenues are within 5% of 2019 levels with most industries now fully recovered. The notable exceptions are tech and professional services, which still lag other industries but did see 26% and 14% year-over-year revenue growth, respectively, in Q4.

    例如,在第四季度,我們的投資組合在銷量和收益率提高的情況下實現了 15% 的年收入強勁增長。整體而言,業務收入較 2019 年水準下降在 5% 以內,大多數行業現已完全復甦。值得注意的例外是科技和專業服務,它們仍然落後於其他行業,但第四季度的收入同比分別增長了 26% 和 14%。

  • Premium cabin revenues also continued their solid performance in 2023. First, on premium class revenues finished up 15% and 10%, respectively, for the year, continuing to substantially outpace main cabin revenue. At nearly 32% of total revenue our premium product orientation provides a clear point of differentiation against our domestic focused peers, which will continue to be a core competitive advantage for us in years to come.

    高級艙收入在 2023 年也持續保持穩健表現。首先,高級艙收入今年分別成長了 15% 和 10%,繼續大幅超過經濟艙收入。我們的優質產品定位佔總收入的近 32%,與國內同行相比具有明顯的差異化優勢,這將在未來幾年繼續成為我們的核心競爭優勢。

  • Regarding loyalty, bank cash remuneration also hit a new record, bringing in $1.6 billion for the full year, up approximately 13% year-over-year. We also continue to thoughtfully build value in our loyalty programs through our extensive portfolio of domestic and international partnerships and alliances, which represent approximately 7% of our total revenue. In 2023, we added 5 new partners, bringing our total airline partnerships to 30, 21 of which we now sell on alaskaair.com.

    在忠誠度方面,銀行現金薪資也創下新紀錄,全年帶來16億美元,年增約13%。我們也繼續透過廣泛的國內和國際合作夥伴關係和聯盟組合,在我們的忠誠度計劃中深思熟慮地創造價值,這些合作夥伴關係和聯盟約占我們總收入的 7%。 2023 年,我們新增了 5 個合作夥伴,使我們的航空公司合作夥伴總數達到 30 個,其中 21 個現在在 alaskaair.com 上銷售。

  • Our pivot to selling partners on alaskaair.com, we believe, will be a big unlock for us. We expect to further build out our selling platform in 2024, including a significant add in British Airways who we have never sold direct from our website other than for award redemptions. Selling our partners direct has 3 significant benefits. First, our website becomes increasingly valuable as a one-stop shop providing a step change in utility for guests through expanded booking options for both domestic and international trips.

    我們相信,我們將重心轉向 alaskaair.com 上的銷售合作夥伴,這將為我們帶來巨大的機會。我們預計在 2024 年進一步建立我們的銷售平台,其中包括大幅增加英國航空 (British Airways) 的數量,除了獎勵兌換之外,我們從未從我們的網站上直接銷售過該平台的產品。直接向我們的合作夥伴銷售有 3 個顯著的好處。首先,我們的網站作為一站式商店變得越來越有價值,透過擴大國內和國際旅行的預訂選項,為客人提供了實用性的逐步改變。

  • Second, it further rewards guest loyalty. When our guests book itineraries on our partners through alaskaair.com, they benefit from Alaska's generous policies, such as no change fees, and importantly, full mileage accrual for main cabin and above on all partners we sell directly, which is not available through other channels. And third, it drives incremental revenue to Alaska.

    其次,它進一步獎勵了客人的忠誠度。當我們的客人透過alaskaair.com 在我們的合作夥伴預訂行程時,他們將受益於阿拉斯加的慷慨政策,例如免改簽費,更重要的是,我們直接銷售的所有合作夥伴的主艙及以上艙位均可累積全額里程,這是透過其他航空公司無法獲得的管道。第三,它為阿拉斯加帶來了增量收入。

  • In December, 38% of partner revenues sold on alaskaair.com was attributable to an Alaska operated segment. In 2024, we plan to sell approximately 5,000 tickets per day on partner flights, which is double what we sold in 2023. As we grow partner sales on alaskaair.com, we will also improve our own operated revenues.

    12 月份,在 alaskaair.com 上銷售的合作夥伴收入中有 38% 來自阿拉斯加營運部門。到2024 年,我們計劃每天銷售約5,000 張合作夥伴航班的機票,這是2023 年銷售量的兩倍。隨著我們在alaskaair.com 上增加合作夥伴銷售額,我們也將提高我們自己的營運收入。

  • Now turning to our outlook and guidance. Assuming a gradual return of service of the MAX 9 fleet through the first week of February, we expect to have canceled over 3,000 flights during January, impacting our first quarter capacity by 7 points which will result in capacity being down mid-single digits year-over-year for the quarter.

    現在轉向我們的展望和指導。假設MAX 9 機隊在2 月第一周逐步恢復服務,我們預計1 月將取消3,000 多個航班,這將影響我們第一季的運力7 個百分點,這將導致全年運力下降中個位數。本季年增。

  • However, given the time of year is seasonally low from a demand standpoint, we've been able to rebook over half of those guests impacted by cancellations back onto Alaska flights. Additionally, capacity flexibility at our regional carrier horizon due to lower pilot attrition has resulted in their operation of more than 150 unscheduled flights. This has allowed us to rebook over 10,000 impacted guests and get them to their destinations. As Ben mentioned, we were on an excellent revenue trajectory for the first quarter.

    然而,考慮到一年中的這個時間是需求量較低的季節,我們已經能夠將一半以上受到取消影響的乘客重新預訂回阿拉斯加航班。此外,由於飛行員流失率較低,我們的支線航空公司的運力靈活性使其運營了 150 多個不定期航班。這使我們能夠為超過 10,000 名受影響的客人重新預訂並幫助他們到達目的地。正如本所提到的,我們第一季的營收軌跡非常出色。

  • Prior to the MAX 9 grounding, we had line of sight to unit revenues up 1% to 2% year-over-year on low single-digit growth with held yields improving 1 to 2 points per week to start the year. This is a significant 11-point change in trajectory in unit revenue performance from Q4 of '23. As we sit here today, held yield for February and March is marginally positive with daily sold yield up 8% this past week.

    在 MAX 9 停飛之前,我們預計單位收入將年增 1% 至 2%,增幅僅為個位數,而年初持有收益率每週提高 1 至 2 個百分點。與 23 年第四季相比,單位收入績效軌跡發生了 11 個百分點的重大變化。當我們今天坐在這裡時,2 月和 3 月的持有收益率略為正值,上週每日賣出收益率上漲 8%。

  • Clearly, we are seeing the benefits from capacity adjustments to new post COVID demand realities, strategically reshaping our network and applying our learnings to utilize our assets more optimally. We are seeing strong unit revenue performance from bookings in our highest frequency business markets and into California, where we reduced capacity double digits year-over-year. Several new leisure markets are also performing well right out of the gate. And then lastly, the general fare environment is improving along with the competitive capacity backdrop in our markets.

    顯然,我們看到了根據新冠疫情后的新需求現實進行容量調整、戰略性重塑我們的網絡以及應用我們的經驗教訓來更優化地利用我們的資產所帶來的好處。我們看到,在我們最頻繁的業務市場和加州的預訂中,單位收入表現強勁,我們在加州的運力比去年同期下降了兩位數。幾個新的休閒市場也表現良好。最後,隨著我們市場的競爭力背景,整體票價環境正在改善。

  • For the past 6 months, competitive capacity was up high single digits, but trending towards flat in Q1, ahead of low single-digit growth in the second quarter. At this point in time, our held load factors for Q1 are near flat and daily intakes remain positive on a yield basis year-over-year. Taken all together, absent the impact from the MAX 9 grounding, we feel very good about the outlook for our core business in Q1 and beyond.

    過去 6 個月,競爭產能出現高個位數成長,但在第二季出現低個位數成長之前,第一季趨於持平。目前,我們第一季的載客率接近持平,每日攝取量與去年同期相比仍保持正值。總而言之,如果沒有 MAX 9 停飛的影響,我們對第一季及以後核心業務的前景感到非常樂觀。

  • And in closing, we are now a $10 billion revenue franchise, and are not the same company we were a few years ago. We have a diversified product mix and all the elements in place to cater to evolving guest preferences, including lounges, first and premium class across 100% of our fleet, a global network through our partners and a robust loyalty program. Yet there is more to come, and we are excited to continue building on future opportunities, optimizing premium seeding upsells, implementation of NDC and better merchandising and increasing the number of premium seats on both our Boeing 8s and 9s, all of which will help support strong financial performance and long-term profitable growth. And with that, I'll pass it over to Shane.

    最後,我們現在是一家收入 100 億美元的特許經營公司,與幾年前的公司不同了。我們擁有多元化的產品組合和所有要素來滿足不斷變化的客人喜好,包括休息室、覆蓋我們100% 機隊的頭等艙和豪華艙、透過我們的合作夥伴建立的全球網路以及強大的忠誠度計劃。然而,還有更多的事情即將到來,我們很高興繼續利用未來的機會,優化優質種子追加銷售,實施NDC 和更好的銷售,並增加我們的波音8 和9 上的優質座位數量,所有這些都將有助於支持強勁的財務業績和長期的獲利成長。接下來,我會把它交給謝恩。

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Before I discuss our fourth quarter and full year results and provide additional information on the impact of the MAX 9 grounding I will reiterate that safety is and will remain the #1 priority for Alaska. Our results are secondary to that concern and we will always place safety considerations for our people and our guests above financial performance.

    謝謝安德魯,大家早安。在討論我們第四季度和全年的業績並提供有關 MAX 9 停飛影響的更多資訊之前,我要重申,安全現在是、將來仍然是阿拉斯加的第一要務。我們的業績是次要的,我們始終將員工和客人的安全考慮置於財務業績之上。

  • For the fourth quarter, our adjusted EPS was $0.30 on an adjusted pretax margin of 2.2% which was above both our initial and our most recent guide for the quarter. Unit costs ended down 6.7% versus 2023, while economic fuel cost per gallon was $3.42. Our fuel costs remained disproportionately impacted by elevated refining margins on the West Coast relative to the rest of the country. As a reminder, in the third quarter our refining margin costs were $0.30 higher than U.S. Gulf Coast margins. That spread held most of the fourth quarter where West Coast refining margins were $0.34 higher.

    第四季度,我們調整後的每股盈餘為 0.30 美元,調整後的稅前利潤率為 2.2%,高於我們對該季度的初始和最新指引。與 2023 年相比,單位成本最終下降了 6.7%,而每加侖的經濟燃料成本為 3.42 美元。相對於全國其他地區,西海岸煉油利潤的提高仍然對我們的燃料成本產生了不成比例的影響。提醒一下,第三季我們的煉油利潤成本比美國墨西哥灣沿岸的利潤高出 0.30 美元。在第四季的大部分時間裡,西海岸煉油利潤率上漲了 0.34 美元。

  • We did see improvement late in the fourth quarter and into the first and today, we are back within $0.10 of U.S. Gulf Coast. This phenomenon, although we believe temporary, has been material to our results. Our full year pretax profitability would have been 1.5 points better had refining margins behaved more normally. Our adjusted EPS for the full year was $4.53 and our adjusted pretax margin was 7.5%. Unit costs were down 2.6%, while economic fuel cost per gallon for the full year was $3.21.

    我們確實在第四季度末和第一季看到了改善,今天,我們又回到了美國墨西哥灣沿岸 0.10 美元的範圍內。儘管我們認為這種現像是暫時的,但它對我們的結果至關重要。如果煉油利潤表現更正常,我們的全年稅前獲利能力將會提高 1.5 個百分點。我們全年調整後每股盈餘為 4.53 美元,調整後稅前利潤率為 7.5%。單位成本下降了 2.6%,全年每加侖經濟燃油成本為 3.21 美元。

  • As Ben mentioned in his opening remarks, the strength of our balance sheet remains intact. Our leverage level closed the year within our long-term target ranges at 46% debt to cap and 1.4x net debt to EBITDAR. And during the quarter, we received an investment-grade credit rating from Moody's. We generated approximately $1.1 billion in cash flow from operations during the year, while total liquidity inclusive of our on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit stood at a healthy $2.3 billion.

    正如本在開場白中提到的那樣,我們的資產負債表實力仍然完好無損。年底,我們的槓桿水準處於長期目標範圍內,債務上限為 46%,淨債務佔 EBITDAR 的 1.4 倍。在本季度,我們獲得了穆迪的投資等級信用評級。年內,我們的營運現金流量約為 11 億美元,而包括手頭現金和未提取信貸額度在內的總流動性保持在 23 億美元的健康水平。

  • Debt payments for the quarter were approximately $40 million and are expected to be $100 million in the first quarter. We more than offset dilution this year with $145 million in share repurchases. With over $300 million still existing under our current share repurchase program, we intend to continue once again to at least offset dilution in 2024.

    本季債務償還約 4,000 萬美元,預計第一季為 1 億美元。今年我們透過 1.45 億美元的股票回購抵銷了股權稀釋帶來的影響。目前我們的股票回購計畫中仍有超過 3 億美元的資金存在,我們打算在 2024 年再次繼續實施,至少抵銷股權稀釋的影響。

  • Moving to costs, the teams have performed well during the year with continued improvement through the second half and December quarter. Fourth quarter CASMex ended well below our guide at down 6.7% as we continue to execute and outperform against cost targets while milder winter weather helped strong completion rates and ASM production to finish the year. Even more notable, our full year CASMex ended down 2.6%, better than our latest guide of down 1% to 2% and at the better end of our original guide of down 1% to 3%. Even adjusting for higher capacity, we were within $32 million of our original midpoint on a nonfuel cost base of $7 billion.

    說到成本,這些團隊在這一年中表現良好,並在下半年和 12 月季度持續改進。第四季 CASMex 收盤價遠低於我們的指引,下跌 6.7%,因為我們繼續執行並超越成本目標,而溫和的冬季天氣幫助強勁的完工率和 ASM 產量完成了今年的工作。更值得注意的是,我們全年 CASMex 收盤下跌 2.6%,優於我們最新指引的下跌 1% 至 2%,也優於我們最初指引的下跌 1% 至 3%。即使根據更高的運力進行調整,我們的非燃料成本基礎為 70 億美元,與最初的中點相差不到 3,200 萬美元。

  • We achieved this result amidst ramping our operation back to and beyond pre-pandemic flying levels, doing so at a record completion rates and while absorbing significant wage increases. I believe our cost management was clearly differentiated versus the industry in 2023 and provides confidence that we will continue to maintain our relative costs versus our competitors in the years ahead, even as cost inflation has been a clear reality of the industry recently.

    我們在將營運恢復到並超越大流行前的飛行水平的過程中取得了這一成果,以創紀錄的完成率實現了這一目標,同時吸收了工資的大幅增長。我相信,到 2023 年,我們的成本管理與行業明顯不同,這讓我們有信心在未來幾年繼續保持與競爭對手相比的相對成本,儘管成本通膨最近已成為該行業的一個明顯現實。

  • The benefits from our upgauging strategy were also clear. We grew full year capacity 12.8% on only 2.5% departure growth and improved fuel efficiency measured in ASMs per gallon, nearly 4%. Attention to cost at detail matters to us at Alaska, and we will continue to work on improving efficiencies within the context of lower growth and remaining cost headwinds in 2024. Given the impacts of the fleet grounding, we are opting to provide full year EPS guidance only. We also like the idea of shifting focus to margins and cash flow versus unit metrics.

    我們升級戰略的好處也很明顯。我們全年運能成長了 12.8%,而離港成長率僅為 2.5%,並且以每加侖 ASM 衡量的燃油效率提高了近 4%。在阿拉斯加,關注細節成本對我們很重要,我們將在 2024 年增長放緩和剩餘成本逆風的背景下繼續努力提高效率。考慮到機隊停飛的影響,我們選擇提供全年 EPS 指導僅有的。我們也喜歡將重點轉移到利潤和現金流而不是單位指標上的想法。

  • We expect our full year earnings per share to be $3 to $5, which assumes a $150 million negative impact from the fleet grounding. While we fully expect to be made whole for the profit impact of the grounding, we do not have details to share today on that process, nor have we incorporated this into our guidance. Excluding the approximate $150 million impact, at the midpoint, our EPS guide implies a flat to slightly improved result in 2024 versus 2023.

    我們預計全年每股收益為 3 至 5 美元,假設機隊停飛造成 1.5 億美元的負面影響。雖然我們完全希望能夠彌補停飛對利潤的影響,但我們今天沒有分享這個過程的細節,也沒有將其納入我們的指導中。排除約 1.5 億美元的影響,我們的 EPS 指南中位數顯示 2024 年的結果與 2023 年持平或略有改善。

  • We expect our full year capacity to come in at or below the lower end of what had been our original expectation to grow 3% to 5% versus 2023. Our fleet plan called for 23 mainline deliveries this year, 16 MAX 9 and 7 MAX 8. We anticipate some of these deliveries may be delayed, hence, the inability to provide more precision on year-over-year growth.

    我們預計全年運力將達到或低於我們最初預期的下限,即與2023 年相比增長3% 至5%。我們的機隊計劃要求今年交付23 架幹線飛機,其中16 架MAX 9 和7 架MAX 8我們預計其中一些交付可能會延遲,因此無法提供更準確的同比增長資訊。

  • Lastly on costs. This lower growth rate coupled with strong 2023 cost performance results in a tougher comparison baseline for 2024. There are remaining cost headwinds the entire industry is facing in 2024 and we do not believe we will be disproportionately impacted by them.

    最後是成本。較低的成長率加上 2023 年強勁的成本績效,導致 2024 年的比較基準更加嚴格。整個產業在 2024 年仍面臨成本阻力,我們認為我們不會受到不成比例的影響。

  • Wages are a large portion of this. We will be lapping the pilot wage step-up implemented in September, which is approximately $90 million for the full year and $60 million incrementally in 2024. We have an agreement in principle with our technicians, and we're hopeful for a tentative agreement soon, and we have resumed negotiations with our flight attendants and are anxious to reach a TA with them as well. As we look forward, our outlook and priorities remain unchanged. We will prioritize a strong operation, continue to focus on managing costs and recovering prepandemic productivity. Ensure we are deploying our network in a way that is responsive to demand in the market and will continue to drive our commercial road map and emphasize the competitiveness of our premium product offerings.

    工資佔其中很大一部分。我們將實施 9 月實施的試點薪資上漲計劃,全年約為 9,000 萬美元,2024 年增量為 6,000 萬美元。我們與技術人員已原則上達成協議,希望很快能達成臨時協議,我們已經恢復與空服人員的談判,並渴望與他們達成TA。展望未來,我們的前景和優先事項保持不變。我們將優先考慮強有力的運營,繼續專注於管理成本和恢復疫情前的生產力。確保我們以響應市場需求的方式部署我們的網絡,並將繼續推動我們的商業路線圖並強調我們優質產品的競爭力。

  • We have a business model configured to compete with anyone in the industry and are optimistic about our ability to continue to deliver on our goal of delivering the industry's best margins. And with that, let's go to your questions.

    我們擁有一個可以與業內任何人競爭的商業模式,並對我們繼續實現行業最佳利潤目標的能力感到樂觀。接下來,讓我們來回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • So obviously, not a usual start of the year than you expected, and I don't think anyone can really blame you for this. But can you share anything you've seen in terms of brand damage or NPS promoter scores that may be impacted by this? And also kind of what you're seeing in the forward booking curve in terms of any kind of max lingering issues there?

    很明顯,今年的開年並不像你預期的那樣,我認為沒有人可以真正為此責怪你。但您能否分享一下您所看到的可能受此影響的品牌損害或 NPS 啟動子得分方面的情況?另外,您在遠期預訂曲線中看到的最大揮之不去的問題是什麼?

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Ravi, it's Ben. What I can say is, I've been overwhelmed with the support of our customers. And I think it's just a tribute to our employees who've been so well in gaining loyalty over the years. And they can't wait for us to get back to full service and our anticipation is when our MAX 9 get's back up. We will fill our airplanes.

    拉維,是本。我可以說的是,客戶的支持讓我深受感動。我認為這只是對我們多年來在贏得忠誠度方面表現出色的員工的致敬。他們迫不及待地希望我們恢復全面服務,我們期待 MAX 9 恢復正常服務。我們將填滿我們的飛機。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • And just maybe as a quick follow-up. You said you're looking to hold Boeing accountable and don't have any info to share there. Any idea kind of when you might have something to share there?

    也許只是作為一個快速的後續行動。你說你希望追究波音公司的責任,但沒有任何資訊可以分享。你有什麼想法可以在那裡分享一些東西嗎?

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, Ravi, as you know, my first priority is to get our MAX 9 fleet back into service and get our schedule back up to 100%. So that's priority number one. We'll work on the accountability with Boeing. The accountability is essentially on raising the quality standards at the factory as well as making us whole. But that will be secondary. Right now, we're focused on safety and quality and getting our fleet back to a full schedule.

    好吧,拉維,如您所知,我的首要任務是讓我們的 MAX 9 機隊重新投入使用,並使我們的計劃恢復到 100%。所以這是第一要務。我們將與波音公司共同努力追究責任。責任本質上是提高工廠的品質標準以及使我們完整。但這將是次要的。目前,我們的重點是安全和質量,並使我們的車隊恢復正常運作。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • Very good. Good luck and good job everyone.

    非常好。祝大家好運,工作順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from Savi Syth with Raymond James Financial.

    您的下一個問題將由 Raymond James Financial 的 Savi Syth 提出。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - MD

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - MD

  • Just to kind of follow up on Ravi's kind of questioning especially as you kind of think of your deliveries this year and maybe kind of next year as well. Just any thoughts on -- or maybe what is your kind of 2024 outlook kind of based on in terms of deliveries?

    只是為了跟進拉維的提問,特別是當你想到今年甚至明年的交貨時。您對 2024 年的交付前景有何看法?

  • Has that changed at all? And just any kind of views on CapEx here going forward? I know you gave a guide for F '24.

    這有什麼改變嗎?對未來的資本支出有什麼看法嗎?我知道你為 F '24 提供了指南。

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Savi, it's Shane. Thanks for the question. I wish we had more detail. We don't. It's just so early in understanding the impact. As Ben mentioned, the real focus is getting the MAX 9 fleet that's grounded back flying the schedule safely. We have started to think about the fleet plan going forward, we were meant to take 23 aircraft this year, 16 MAX 9s and 7 MAX 8s.

    薩維,我是謝恩。謝謝你的提問。我希望我們有更多細節。我們不這樣做。現在要了解其影響還為時過早。正如 Ben 所提到的,真正的重點是讓停飛的 MAX 9 機隊安全地按計劃飛行。我們已經開始考慮未來的機隊計劃,今年我們打算購買 23 架飛機,其中 16 架 MAX 9 和 7 架 MAX 8。

  • And our suspicion is many of those will get delayed, but we don't know for how long. What I can tell you is we have enough aircraft to fly the schedule we're selling today, and we'll be very careful to make sure that we've got enough fleet to fly what we're out there selling. I think we -- in December, I mentioned $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of CapEx down from last year. I think it's not going to be more than that.

    我們懷疑其中許多會被推遲,但我們不知道會推遲多久。我可以告訴你的是,我們有足夠的飛機來執行我們今天銷售的航班,我們將非常小心地確保我們有足夠的機隊來執行我們正在銷售的航班。我想我們 - 在 12 月,我提到資本支出比去年減少了 14 億至 15 億美元。我認為不會不止於此。

  • My suspicion is it will be less. And as that becomes more clear, we'll provide updates either at the next call or by an 8-K mid-quarter?

    我懷疑它會更少。隨著這一點變得更加明確,我們將在下次電話會議或 8-K 季度中期提供更新嗎?

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - MD

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - MD

  • Makes sense. And just a comment on the cost front. Just curious if you could kind of talk about it as we think through the year, if there are any kind of comp views or some headwinds that are greater kind of in any part of the quarters as we go through the year.

    說得通。只是對成本方面的評論。只是好奇您是否可以在我們對這一年的思考中談論這個問題,在我們這一年中的任何季度中是否存在任何類型的比較觀點或一些更大的阻力。

  • And also was just curious if you have any kind of labor contracts that you might be negotiating currently kind of with -- considered in that guide?

    我也很好奇,您目前可能正在與之談判的任何類型的勞動合約是否在該指南中考慮過?

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Savi. Like I -- we didn't put a cost guide out. I think it's hard to predict Q1. We obviously have lost a significant number of the ASMs we wanted to carry in Q1 and less material to the full year, but not knowing what the delivery stream is going to look like. I think we're going to have a much lower growth rate than we had initially thought. We haven't managed costs out of the system for that today.

    薩維。就像我一樣——我們沒有推出成本指南。我認為很難預測第一季。顯然,我們失去了第一季想要交付的大量 ASM,全年的材料也減少了,但不知道交付流會是什麼樣子。我認為我們的成長率將比我們最初想像的低得多。今天我們還沒有在系統之外管理成本。

  • And we still need to decide sort of how to size the company given what we ultimately decide to grow. I think for 2024, what we're facing are similar cost pressures that you've heard from others, there's certainly annualization of pilot wage costs. And as I said in the script, we are very anxious to get ratified agreements with both our technicians, which we're close, I hope to getting the TA with them. We have an agreement in principle and with our flight attendants.

    鑑於我們最終決定發展的目標,我們仍然需要決定如何調整公司規模。我認為,到 2024 年,我們面臨的成本壓力與您從其他人那裡聽到的類似,飛行員薪資成本肯定會按年計算。正如我在劇本中所說,我們非常渴望與我們的技術人員達成一致,我們已經很接近了,我希望能與他們取得技術援助。我們與空服人員達成了原則協議。

  • We need to get both of those done and then airport costs and maintenance costs, which are very similar to competitors, there's pressure throughout the year on those. I think what I would also just mention is when it all washes out, our cost structure is going to be as competitive relative to legacy peers and I think more competitive relative to the rest of the industry, as we go through this year and close out this year.

    我們需要完成這兩件事,然後機場成本和維護成本與競爭對手非常相似,全年都會面臨壓力。我想我還要提到的是,當一切都消失後,我們的成本結構相對於傳統同行將具有競爭力,而且我認為相對於行業的其他公司更具競爭力,因為我們經歷了今年並結束了今年。

  • So even though the unit cost might be pressured because of the growth rate, I think our core cost structure is going to be in a better position relative to everybody else once we close 2024 out.

    因此,儘管單位成本可能因成長率而受到壓力,但我認為,一旦 2024 年結束,我們的核心成本結構相對於其他公司將處於更好的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll move next to Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

    接下來我們將轉向 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So I was wondering the $150 million that you guys cited, is there any is there any -- is that inclusive of any book away impact? Are you seeing that? And then I just want to be sure. So when you talk about capacity down mid-single digits now in Q1, but you've sort of rebooked half of the lost stuff like does that imply that RASM is actually going to be better than the 1% to 2% than you were initially planning for. I just want to understand just the moving pieces for the model. For Q1.

    所以我想知道你們提到的 1.5 億美元,有沒有——這是否包括任何書外影響?你看到了嗎?然後我只是想確定一下。因此,當您談論第一季度的容量下降到中個位數時,但您已經重新預訂了一半丟失的內容,這是否意味著 RASM 實際上會比最初的 1% 到 2% 更好規劃.我只想了解模型的移動部分。對於第一季。

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Yes. Scott. The $150 million is really tickets that we've had to cancel and essentially refund, we couldn't rebook there's some costs of buying tickets on other airlines to reaccommodate. There certainly some costs in that number for over time and just the operational stress that we've had to go through. There's no like long-term core book away we think we're going to be still able to have a very strong spring break and mid-winter break season.

    是的。斯科特.這 1.5 億美元實際上是我們不得不取消並基本上退款的機票,我們無法重新預訂,因為在其他航空公司購買機票需要重新安排一些費用。隨著時間的推移,這個數字肯定會產生一些成本,而且我們必須承受營運壓力。沒有像長期核心書籍那樣的遠去,我們認為我們仍然能夠擁有一個非常強勁的春假和寒假季節。

  • As Ben mentioned, we've been hearing from our guests, they can't wait to have the fleet flying again and come back and fly with us. There's certainly some close-in revenue loss that's in the next few weeks from business and even leisure just because it's so close to travel that we probably won't get to pick back up. And so there's a small portion that you could call book away just over the next few weeks, but I don't think there's a brand related we don't expect a brand-related long-term impact, if we see one, obviously, we'll talk about that. But right now, I think we expect our guests to come back to us.

    正如本所提到的,我們已經收到客人的來信,他們迫不及待地想讓機隊再次飛行並回來與我們一起飛行。在接下來的幾週內,商務甚至休閒肯定會造成一些近距離的收入損失,因為它與旅行如此接近,我們可能無法恢復。因此,有一小部分你可以在接下來的幾週內將其稱為書籍,但我認為沒有與品牌相關的內容,我們預計不會產生與品牌相關的長期影響,如果我們看到一個,顯然,我們會討論這個。但現在,我認為我們希望我們的客人回到我們身邊。

  • Capacity down mid-single digits. Yes, I think, look, unit revenues the point Andrew was making is we were on a really good trajectory. We felt great about the network reshaping that his team had done. We felt great about advances into the first quarter. The fact that we're losing a bunch of revenue in the first quarter, we're also losing a lot of ASM. So I think the revenues could still be positive as we close the quarter out once that all nets out.

    容量下降了中個位數。是的,我認為,看,安德魯所說的單位收入是我們正處於一個非常好的軌道上。我們對他的團隊所做的網路重塑感到非常滿意。我們對第一季的進展感到非常高興。事實上,我們在第一季損失了大量收入,我們也損失了大量 ASM。因此,我認為,一旦一切都結束後,當我們結束本季時,收入仍可能為正。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Helpful. And then I'm just curious, how does the JetBlue Spirit ruling change your views on success of approval with Hawaiian? And just any thoughts or color on just when you go through the Hawaiian proxy, some of the cash burn there, if that's all sort of incorporated in everything you laid out for us when we did the...

    好的。有幫助。然後我很好奇,JetBlue Spirit 的裁決如何改變您對夏威夷航空公司成功批准的看法?當你通過夏威夷代理時,任何想法或顏色,那裡的一些現金消耗,如果這一切都納入你在我們做的時候為我們安排的一切......

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Scott, thank you. It's Ben. Our view is that these deals are completely different. The JetBlue Spirit was blocked by the judge essentially because it would eliminate a low-cost competitor. In our case, between Hawaiian and Alaska, these are 2 very similar business models. The networks are very, very complementary. In fact, when you combine the networks, there's only 12 overlap routes through the combination.

    是的,斯科特,謝謝你。是本。我們的觀點是這些交易完全不同。捷藍精神號被法官駁回主要是因為它將消除一個低成本競爭對手。在我們的案例中,夏威夷航空和阿拉斯加航空有兩種非常相似的商業模式。這些網路非常非常互補。事實上,當您組合網路時,只有 12 條重疊路由經過組合。

  • So it's very pro consumer, and it's also very pro-competitive customers in Hawaii will have an expansive network to fly to the United States and internationally, our customers on the West Coast will have more options to fly to Hawaii and international. So it's very different from the JetBlue Spirit. And look, after the deal would become a little bit larger airline to compete stronger against the network carriers and now we have a strong domestic network with a strong international network. So we feel our case is differentiated, and we'll work through the DOJ on that process.

    因此,它非常有利於消費者,也非常有利於競爭,夏威夷的客戶將擁有飛往美國和國際的廣闊網絡,我們西海岸的客戶將有更多飛往夏威夷和國際的選擇。所以它與捷藍精神號有很大不同。看看,交易完成後,我們將成為一家規模更大的航空公司,以便與網路營運商進行更強大的競爭,現在我們擁有強大的國內網路和強大的國際網路。因此,我們認為我們的案件有所不同,我們將透過司法部處理該流程。

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • And Scott, I'll just mention very quick on Hawaiian cash burn since you also asked about that. It's -- in everything we've laid out, the cash burn is really principally tied to the delivery stream. And I just note that there's an asset behind that has value that we want.

    史考特,我會很快提到夏威夷的現金消耗,因為你也問過這個問題。在我們制定的所有計劃中,現金消耗實際上主要與交付流相關。我只是注意到,背後有一種資產具有我們想要的價值。

  • And so we're not funding significant or material operating cash losses. The negative cash flow is really about the CapEx right now. And we think that, that business is going to recover over the next couple of years as Asia comes back and as they get Amazon up in the 7 up and Maui recovers.

    因此,我們不會為重大或實質的營運現金損失提供資金。目前的負現金流實際上與資本支出有關。我們認為,隨著亞洲的復甦以及亞馬遜在第七名中排名的上升以及毛伊島的復甦,該業務將在未來幾年內復甦。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

    您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • I guess other than the lost ASMs from flight cancellations. Can you just talk a little bit more about maybe deliveries that you think could shift? Or what other pieces there are that could influence where you ultimately end up for the year?

    我猜除了因航班取消而丟失的 ASM 之外。您能多談談您認為可能會發生變化的交付情況嗎?或者還有哪些內容可能會影響您今年的最終結果?

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Yes, Duane, on capacity, I really think it's at this point, the deliveries. I think given the guidance we got yesterday, we have a good sense of when we can get the full MAX-9 fleet back operating and it really just comes down to the 23 deliveries. We did have some planned retirements, and we had some allocation for work to refurbish some interiors. So we've got some moving parts and pieces we can sort of flex around to get to the right capacity number.

    是的,杜安,就產能而言,我真的認為現在就是交付量。我認為,根據我們昨天得到的指導,我們很清楚何時能讓整個 MAX-9 機隊恢復運營,而這實際上只取決於 23 架飛機的交付。我們確實有一些計劃退休,並且我們有一些工作分配來翻新一些內部。因此,我們有一些可移動的部件和部件,我們可以靈活調整以獲得正確的容量數字。

  • But as we mentioned, as we look at it today, it's going to be below the range we had originally thought, which was 3% to 5%, and it could well -- very well be below 3% at the end of the day.

    但正如我們所提到的,正如我們今天所看到的,它將低於我們最初設想的範圍,即 3% 到 5%,並且很可能在一天結束時低於 3% 。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • And then just relatedly, have you made any changes with respect to hiring? Have you paused hiring? Have you paused training resulting from this event?

    與此相關的是,您在招募方面是否做出了任何改變?你們暫停招募了嗎?您是否因該事件而暫停了訓練?

  • Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

    Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

  • Duane, this is Ryan. We already came into the year given the low growth profile with not much hiring required, I mean, some, of course, to backfill any attrition, but we've sort of left some optionality on the table. We've got a couple more months to make some decisions on that relative to our summer schedule. So we'll be talking about that the next few months, obviously, if there's any delivery delays or anything, maybe we don't need some of those last training classes in the spring. But we've still got them available if we need them if we can find the capacity.

    杜安,這是瑞安。鑑於成長緩慢,我們已經進入了這一年,不需要太多招聘,我的意思是,當然,需要一些招聘來填補任何人員流失,但我們在某種程度上留下了一些選擇。相對於我們的夏季日程,我們還有幾個月的時間來做出一些決定。因此,我們將在接下來的幾個月中討論這個問題,顯然,如果有任何交付延遲或其他任何情況,也許我們不需要春季的最後一些培訓課程。但如果我們能找到足夠的容量,我們仍然可以在需要時提供它們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll move next to Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

    接下來我們將與 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham 進行交流。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Sorry to go back to the $150 million headwind, but I'm not quite clear -- it's not quite clear on what actually is lost revenue versus cost impact. I don't know if you could provide any clarity there, that would be helpful.

    抱歉,回到 1.5 億美元的逆風,但我不太清楚 - 不太清楚收入損失與成本影響的實際情況。我不知道您是否可以提供任何清晰的信息,這會有所幫助。

  • Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

    Ryan St. John - VP of Finance, Planning, & IR

  • Yes. Conor, this is Ryan again. So the majority of that $150 million is revenue, cost I would say, are kind of a wash because obviously, all the canceled flights, we saved on fuel and landing fees. But as you can imagine, we've incurred significant over time as our operational employees are working around the clock to keep the new schedule going, a lot of passenger remuneration and things like that.

    是的。康納,這又是瑞安。因此,這 1.5 億美元中的大部分是收入,我想說的是,這有點浪費,因為顯然,所有取消的航班,我們都節省了燃油和著陸費。但正如你可以想像的那樣,隨著時間的推移,我們的營運員工日以繼夜地工作以保持新的時間表繼續進行,我們已經承受了巨大的損失,大量的乘客報酬等等。

  • So it's mostly been revenue. I mean, as Shane sort of mentioned, small assumption for maybe some booking challenges in February as we get the fleet back operating. But we're sort of assuming by March, we're back on the original trend there. So that's kind of what it breaks down as it's pretty much mostly revenue. And the point being that it's at least $150 million because obviously, any changes to delivery streams or capacity might further impact that. But it's pretty much cancels to date plus the small amount of booking impact in February.

    所以主要是收入。我的意思是,正如肖恩所提到的,隨著我們的機隊恢復運營,二月可能會出現一些預訂挑戰,這是一個小小的假設。但我們假設到三月份,我們就會回到原來的趨勢。這就是它的分解,因為它幾乎主要是收入。關鍵是它至少有 1.5 億美元,因為顯然,交付流或容量的任何變化都可能會進一步影響這一點。但迄今為止,大部分航班都取消了,再加上二月的少量預訂受到影響。

  • Curtis Kopf

    Curtis Kopf

  • I got you. Okay. That's helpful. And then you mentioned the 30% profit improvement on network changes in 1Q. Can you just -- can you just provide some details on what that actually means? And what's driving the change? Because it seems like a pretty significant long-term impact for you guys. So any help there would be great.

    我接到你了。好的。這很有幫助。然後您提到第一季網路變化使利潤提高了 30%。您能否提供一些有關這實際含義的詳細資訊?是什麼推動了這項改變?因為這對你們來說似乎是一個相當重大的長期影響。所以任何幫助都會很棒。

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Conor, it's Andrew. Yes. Essentially, it's the reshaping of the network. I mean we have significant double-digit increases in certain regions of our network, which performed very poorly last year due to the lack of business and just a change in behaviors. And then we have some very high double-digit growth in some of our sun destinations and other core routes.

    康納,是安德魯。是的。本質上,這是對網路的重塑。我的意思是,我們網路的某些區域出現了兩位數的大幅成長,去年由於缺乏業務和行為改變,這些區域的表現非常糟糕。然後,我們的一些陽光目的地和其他核心航線實現了非常高的兩位數成長。

  • So it's really just -- '22 is obviously an interesting year with all the huge demand surge and we're now in a normal place. So -- and as we've looked at it, it's really revenue driven. It's just reshaping and flying where the demand is getting better day of week seasonality, California versus the Pacific Northwest. So we're very, very happy with the results.

    因此,22 年顯然是有趣的一年,需求激增,而我們現在處於正常狀態。因此,正如我們所看到的,它確實是收入驅動的。它只是在需求變得更好的地方進行重塑和飛行,季節性,加利福尼亞州與太平洋西北地區。所以我們對結果非常非常滿意。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • And Conor, I'm going to add that, remember, our goal is to reduce losses in Q1 and get to breakeven or better. So that is the long-term objective.

    康納,我要補充一點,請記住,我們的目標是減少第一季的損失並實現損益平衡或更好。這就是長期目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Andrew Didora with BofA Global Research.

    我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行全球研究部的安德魯·迪多拉(Andrew Didora)。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • Ben. It's very early days since the incident but the comments today in the National Media this week. Just guess, where is your relations going after this? And guess what needs to happen to make you rethink your single fleet type at this point?

    本.事件發生還為時過早,但本週國家媒體今天發表了評論。猜猜看,這之後你們的關係會走向何方?猜猜此時需要發生什麼才能讓您重新考慮您的單一機隊類型?

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks for your question, Andrew. Well, look, where I stand is flight 1282 should never have happened. It should never have happened at all. So we have a long-standing deep relationship with Boeing. But like I said, it's not acceptable what happened. We're going to hold them accountable and we're going to raise the bar on quality on Boeing.

    謝謝你的提問,安德魯。好吧,看,我現在站的位置是 1282 航班根本不應該發生。它根本不應該發生。因此,我們與波音公司有著長期深厚的合作關係。但就像我說的,所發生的事情是不可接受的。我們將追究他們的責任,並提高波音公司的品質標準。

  • So we have the relationship. We're having tough candid conversations. And my goal as a CEO of this airline is for every airplane that comes out of that factory it's going to come out with a higher degree of quality and reliability that has been in the past. So I think it's the virtue of our relationship that we can have these tough conversations, maintain the relationship and continue. We got 231 737s that we've been happy with. And until this incident, we were happy with the MAX.

    所以我們有這樣的關係。我們正在進行艱難的坦誠對話。作為這家航空公司的首席執行官,我的目標是讓該工廠生產的每架飛機都具有比過去更高的品質和可靠性。所以我認為我們的關係的優點是我們可以進行這些艱難的對話,維持這種關係並繼續下去。我們擁有 231 737 架,我們對此感到非常滿意。直到這次事件發生之前,我們對 MAX 都很滿意。

  • We have 185 on order that are coming to us. We believe with the network configuration we had, this is, of course, ex Hawaiian. The network configuration we have, the Boeing airplane is 737 is well suited for our network. So that is the long-term plan, but we're going to hold Boeings feet to the fire to make sure that we get good airplanes out of that factory.

    我們有 185 個訂單正在向我們發送。我們相信,根據我們擁有的網路配置,這當然是前夏威夷的。我們的網路配置,波音737飛機非常適合我們的網路。所以這是長期計劃,但我們將阻止波音公司的腳步,以確保我們從該工廠生產出優質的飛機。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • Ben. And then my second question for Shane. You have to say like your most of the calls last year, I think you were certainly a bit worried about industry domestic capacity growth over the course of 2023. As we sit here in January of 2024, are you most about outside of getting the MAX 9 back up and running?

    本.然後是我要問謝恩的第二個問題。您必須說,就像您去年接到的大多數電話一樣,我認為您肯定有點擔心2023 年行業國內產能的增長。當我們在2024 年1 月坐在這裡時,您最關心的是除了獲得MAX之外的事嗎? 9 備份並執行?

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Andrew, you cut up just a tiny bit at the end. But yes, I think -- and Andrew was alluding to it, it's been -- there's been a lot of predictions across management teams across analysts and observers about what the new normal of demand would be coming out of COVID.

    安德魯,你最後只剪了一點點。但是,是的,我認為——安德魯已經提到過這一點——分析師和觀察家的管理團隊對新冠疫情帶來的需求新常態做出了許多預測。

  • I think it was a little bit anybody's guess, and we were all trying to respond to the best information we had last year. We were all also trying to get our companies back to pre-COVID operational levels, which made sense. And so a lot of that seem to come at the tail end of the huge demand surge that started in 2022 and sort of carried through 2023 summer. The good news is, it seems like demand is holding very well into the first quarter this year. I think the airlines across the board are starting to understand that demand is looking a little different than it did pre-COVID, but probably not as different as we all thought it might have been.

    我認為這有點像任何人的猜測,我們都在努力對去年獲得的最佳資訊做出回應。我們都在努力讓我們的公司恢復到新冠疫情前的營運水平,這是有道理的。因此,其中很大一部分似乎是在 2022 年開始並持續到 2023 年夏季的巨大需求激增的尾聲出現的。好消息是,今年第一季的需求似乎保持良好。我認為所有航空公司都開始意識到,需求看起來與新冠疫情爆發前略有不同,但可能不像我們想像的那麼不同。

  • And so there's still seasonality in the business that looks a lot like pre-COVID. And I think Andrew and his team have done a great job responding to that this year as evidenced by the improvement of the Q1 profile ex the grounding. So we're feeling really good about our capacity outlook. We obviously want these planes. We felt like we had a good plan for them this year. If we don't get them, we've got some work to do to make sure we maximize the results we can get with the current fleet.

    因此,該行業仍然存在季節性,看起來很像新冠疫情之前的情況。我認為安德魯和他的團隊今年對此做出了出色的回應,第一季除停飛外的情況的改善證明了這一點。因此,我們對我們的產能前景感到非常滿意。我們顯然想要這些飛機。我們覺得今年我們為他們制定了一個很好的計劃。如果我們沒有得到它們,我們就需要做一些工作,以確保我們能夠最大限度地利用當前機隊獲得的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll move next to Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

    我們將轉到摩根大通的傑米貝克 (Jamie Baker) 旁邊。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Ben, I can only speak for myself, and I'm not under the illusion that my opinions really matter that much to you. But I actually think you and the team have been handling the MAX situation very, very well. My first question actually relates to Silicon Valley Bank implosion last year. We're coming up in the anniversary in March. Can you remind us how California in particular -- California demand behaved in the aftermath? Both in terms of magnitude and duration?

    本,我只能代表我自己,我並不認為我的意見對你真的那麼重要。但其實我認為你和團隊對 MAX 狀況的處理非常非常好。我的第一個問題其實與去年矽谷銀行的內爆有關。我們即將迎來三月的周年紀念。您能否提醒我們,尤其是加州—加州的需求在災後的表現如何?無論是規模還是持續時間?

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Jamie, you're testing my memory here. But what I recall at the time -- in relation to our California network, it was not that significant. There was already a high-tech softness. I will tell you to take the opportunity that we've been very happy with California performance. We remain 18% down pre-COVID level but we've seen unit revenue performance from California this year and 2023 outperform system average.

    傑米,你在這裡測試我的記憶力。但我當時記得 - 相對於我們的加州網絡來說,這並沒有那麼重要。已經有一種高科技的柔軟。我會告訴您要藉此機會,我們對加州的表現非常滿意。我們仍比新冠肺炎疫情前的水準下降 18%,但我們看到加州今年和 2023 年的單位收入表現優於系統平均水準。

  • We've seen whether it's profitable and in fact, it continues to close the margin gap from our system. So we feel really good about the continuing refinement and strengthening of our California franchise.

    我們已經看到它是否有利可圖,事實上,它繼續縮小我們系統的利潤差距。因此,我們對加州特許經營權的不斷完善和加強感到非常滿意。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a quick question on guidance. Most of my earlier questions have been addressed. But assuming you do revise and ex fuel CASM guide after this quarter, will you be accruing for the flight attendant contract?

    好的。然後是一個關於指導的簡單問題。我之前的大部分問題都已解決。但假設您在本季度之後修改並取消了 CASM 指南,您會獲得空乘合約嗎?

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Jamie. I think that we will guide when we're prepared to do so inclusive of all of the costs that we think are coming our way this year. I don't think we would start accruals. It hasn't been our practice in the past, and I don't foresee us changing that practice.

    傑米。我認為,當我們準備好這樣做時,我們將提供指導,包括我們認為今年將要發生的所有成本。我認為我們不會開始應計費用。這不是我們過去的做法,而且我預期我們不會改變這種做法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Helane Becker with TD Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題將由 Helane Becker 和 TD Cowen 提出。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I just have kind of 2 questions here. One is -- as you think about the MAX coming back into MAX 9 coming back into service, do you think you'll have -- customers? And do you think you'll have to discount to encourage them to fly the plane? Or do you think that a plane-to-plane to a customer who may not be a sophisticated observer?

    我這裡只有兩個問題。一是,當你想到 MAX 重新投入 MAX 9 重新投入使用時,你認為你會擁有——客戶嗎?你認為你必須打折才能鼓勵他們搭飛機嗎?或者您認為飛機對飛機的客戶可能不是一個經驗豐富的觀察者?

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Helane, it's Ben. Like we said before, we have customers who love our company. They trust us. They know we put safety and reliability first. There's no doubt that the MAX 9 has a lot of attention, and people are looking what they're flying. But our goal right now as we reenter the MAX 9 just to give our employees, particularly our crews, the confidence that Alaska has done everything it can to put our MAX 9 safely and an airworthy condition back in service and to communicate with our guests.

    海蘭,是本。正如我們之前所說,我們有熱愛我們公司的客戶。他們信任我們。他們知道我們將安全性和可靠性放在第一位。毫無疑問,MAX 9 受到了許多關注,人們都在關注他們所駕駛的飛機。但我們現在重新投入MAX 9 的目標只是為了讓我們的員工,特別是我們的機組人員相信,阿拉斯加已盡一切努力讓我們的MAX 9 安全並保持適航狀態重新投入使用,並與我們的客人進行溝通。

  • And if they have any concerns to reach out directly to us, to our crews, to assure them that the aircraft they're on are safe. And we won't put any, of course, an aircraft back in service that are unsafe. But I think at first, people will have some questions, some anxiety just like they did 2 years ago or when the -- after all the deep certification process the aircraft went through. but I believe over time, the confidence will get back into this airplane.

    如果他們有任何疑慮,請直接聯絡我們、我們的機組人員,向他們保證他們所搭乘的飛機是安全的。當然,我們不會讓任何不安全的飛機重新投入使用。但我認為,一開始,人們會有些疑問,有些焦慮,就像兩年前一樣,或者在飛機經歷了所有深入的認證過程之後。但我相信隨著時間的推移,人們對這架飛機的信心將會恢復。

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • And Helane, I just might add real quick that what we've been seeing in the -- is just really schedule reliability. And that's been the concern. But sort of in 8 days from now, we'll have the 9 fully back deployed and we fully expect our completion rates to go right back to 99%, our on time back to our goals, so that our guests can be assured that when they book on Alaska, they're going to get to where they need to go safely and on time.

    Helane,我可能會很快補充一點,我們所看到的只是日程安排的可靠性。這就是人們所擔心的。但從現在起大約 8 天,我們將全面重新部署 9 台,我們完全期望我們的完成率能夠恢復到 99%,按時回到我們的目標,以便我們的客人可以放心,當他們預訂了阿拉斯加,他們將安全、準時地到達他們需要去的地方。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. So can I push back just a tiny bit and say from what I've read, and if I'm wrong, if the reports are wrong, that's fine, just tell me. There was an indicator like that went off a few times that caused you guys to move the aircraft in question out of the Hawaiian market where it was flying and overland in case something happened, and of course, something did happen. Is it that the indicator didn't tell you where the problem was? Or is it that maintenance thought it was faulty. I mean, how should people think about that because when you're checking engine light goes on in your car you check it out.

    好的。那我可以稍微反駁一下我所讀到的內容嗎?如果我錯了,如果報告有誤,那也沒關係,請告訴我。有一個類似的指示器出現了幾次,導致你們將有問題的飛機移出夏威夷市場,該飛機正在飛行並通過陸路,以防萬一發生什麼事情,當然,事情確實發生了。難道指標沒有告訴你問題出在哪裡嗎?或維修人員認為是故障。我的意思是,人們應該如何考慮這一點,因為當你檢查汽車的引擎燈亮起時,你會檢查它。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Helane. I'm glad you asked the question because I want to set the record straight on this. And I'll probably take a little bit of time and you're making me put on my old operations and maintenance and engineering hat back on, which I'm glad I love putting it back on. So I'm going to say it right from the start, the issues were completely unrelated. And I'll explain why here if you give me some leeway.

    是的。海蘭。我很高興你問這個問題,因為我想澄清這一點。我可能會花一點時間,你會讓我重新戴上我以前的營運、維護和工程帽子,我很高興我喜歡重新戴上它。所以我從一開始就說,這些問題完全不相關。如果你給我一些餘地,我會在這裡解釋為什麼。

  • What we had was a pressure controller issue. And the pressure controller has 3 modes of operation. It's got an automatic mode. It's got an alternate mode and it's got a manual mode. What failed with the light that your talking about that went on was the automatic mode switching to alternate mode. And that's perfectly in line with the pressure controller. It has 1 primary and 2 backups. So the pressurization was never an issue on the airplane. The reason we restricted it from going over water, and this is stuff when I was back in maintenance is we've taken an abundance of caution.

    我們遇到的是壓力控制器問題。壓力控制器有3種操作模式。它有一個自動模式。它有一個備用模式和一個手動模式。您所說的燈亮起的原因是自動模式切換到備用模式。這與壓力控制器完全一致。它有 1 個主庫和 2 個備份庫。因此,增壓在飛機上從來都不是問題。我們限制它越過水面的原因是我們採取了非常謹慎的態度,這是我回來維護時的事情。

  • We're saying, look, we have other airplanes that we can send over water. This one, the light went on. It's still working perfectly well. It's legal to send over water. We'll be a little more cautious. We'll keep it over land, so we can watch it and keep it between maintenance bases. So I just want to be totally clear. These 2 issues were totally unrelated. This was an issue with the door plug. We got a faulty door plug from Boeing, totally unrelated to the light or to the pressurization issues.

    我們說,看,我們還有其他可以在水上飛行的飛機。這一次,燈亮了。它仍然運行得很好。寄水是合法的。我們會更加謹慎一點。我們將把它放在陸地上,這樣我們就可以監視它並把它放在維護基地之間。所以我只想完全清楚。這兩個問題完全無關。這是門塞的問題。我們從波音公司得到了一個有缺陷的門塞,與燈光或加壓問題完全無關。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Well, I appreciate that explanation because, as I said, I didn't know, and now I do.

    好的。嗯,我很欣賞這個解釋,因為正如我所說,我不知道,現在我知道了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll move next to Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

    接下來我們將轉到高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩 (Catherine O'Brien)。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Shane, maybe one for you first. So you guys called out that you expect to lose about 7 points of capacity from the MAX grounding in the first quarter with capacity now to be down mid-single digits. Can you just help us think about what you were targeting [Pre-MAX] for CASMex? -- sounds like capacity is going to be up low single digits. If I'm doing that correctly. I'm guessing a lot of the fixed costs remain. Is it safe to say like there's about a 7-point headwind to CASMex versus what you were expecting on the old growth rate? Or any color there would be super helpful.

    謝恩,也許第一個給你的。因此,你們預計第一季 MAX 停飛將導致運力損失約 7 個百分點,而現在的運力將下降到中個位數。您能否幫助我們思考一下您為 CASMex 設定的 [Pre-MAX] 目標是什麼? ——聽起來容量將會增加到低個位數。如果我做得正確的話。我猜還有很多固定成本。可以肯定地說,與您對舊成長率的預期相比,CASMex 存在大約 7 個百分點的逆風嗎?或者任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Sure. Yes. I mean I sort of gave a previous answer, Catie. We didn't -- we haven't managed any cost out of the system, Ryan, I know it's a little bit of a puzzle. Ryan told you that the $150 million really is revenue because the costs wash. We've incurred some additional costs, certainly with passenger remuneration reaccommodation costs, a lot of overtime in premium, the costs saved are really landing fees, food and beverage and fuel.

    當然。是的。我的意思是我之前已經給了答案,凱蒂。我們沒有——我們沒有從系統中管理任何成本,瑞安,我知道這有點令人困惑。 Ryan 告訴你,這 1.5 億美元確實是收入,因為成本被洗掉了。我們產生了一些額外的費用,當然還有旅客報酬、重新住宿費用、大量的加班費,節省下來的費用實際上是著陸費、餐飲費和燃油費。

  • So there's more net cost headwind in the quarter, and we didn't take any other cost out of the business because obviously, it happened January 5, and there was no time to react. So certainly, the -- it's almost a one-for-one impact to the quarter. But we haven't also guided to what we thought Q1 was going to go to. We just feel like we need to get certainty around what this looks like and then we can give a full year guide if we choose to do so in the future.

    因此,本季存在更多的淨成本阻力,而且我們沒有從業務中扣除任何其他成本,因為顯然,這件事發生在 1 月 5 日,我們沒有時間做出反應。當然,這對本季幾乎是一對一的影響。但我們還沒有指導我們認為第一季將會發生什麼。我們只是覺得我們需要確定這是什麼樣子,然後如果我們選擇將來這樣做,我們可以提供全年指南。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. And then, Andrew, maybe 1 for you as well. Can you help us size some of the drags to your unit revenue from tech corporate lagging, Maui, anything else you want to highlight in the fourth quarter? And then how those items are trending into the first quarter? One of your competitors called out recently a boost in corporate at the start of the year and part driven by tech. So I would just love to kind of hear how maybe some of the drags in 4Q trending into 1Q.

    好的。很公平。然後,安德魯,也許 1 也適合你。您能否幫助我們衡量科技公司落後對您的單位收入造成的一些拖累,毛伊島,您想在第四季度強調的其他事情嗎?那麼這些產品在第一季的趨勢如何?您的一位競爭對手最近表示,該公司在今年年初得到了提振,這在一定程度上是由科技推動的。因此,我很想聽聽第四季的一些拖累因素如何影響到第一季。

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Yes. Thanks, Catie. Just to touch on Maui real quick. We had already adjusted our capacity down, I think, like 14%, 15% in the fourth quarter, it's down even more in the first quarter. So we feel like we've got our capacity somewhat aligned with demand in Maui. One of the unfortunate challenges as I shared in the Q4, we were seeing good momentum in corporate travel, of course, anything from 0 to 14 days was severely impacted by the MAX 9 in January. So it's a little bit hard for us to comment on the business side. But again, we have continued to see good momentum in average fares for business travel, and I don't see why that would not continue.

    是的。謝謝,凱蒂。只是為了快速了解毛伊島。我們已經把產能下調了,我想,第四季是14%、15%,第一季下降更多。因此,我們覺得我們的產能在一定程度上與毛伊島的需求相符。正如我在第四季度分享的不幸挑戰之一,我們看到商務旅行的良好勢頭,當然,從 0 到 14 天的任何時間都受到 1 月份 MAX 9 的嚴重影響。所以我們對商業方面的評論有點困難。但我們再次看到商務旅行平均票價的良好勢頭,我不明白為什麼這種情況不會持續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Andrew, I appreciate all the color you gave around loyalty, ancillary, some of the premium data. I think calling out that 46% for premium and ancillary and other. I'm not sure I've seen that number before, and that was actually a bit higher than what I thought it would be or thought it was. From an aspirational perspective, where do you think you can get that? And how also does that aspirational goal change in the event that you decide to do lie-flat maybe in some of your domestic markets?

    安德魯,我很欣賞你在忠誠度、輔助和一些優質數據方面所提供的所有色彩。我認為 46% 是用於溢價、輔助和其他。我不確定我以前見過這個數字,實際上這個數字比我想像的要高一些。從理想的角度來看,你認為你可以從哪裡得到它?如果您決定在某些國內市場採用平躺方式,那麼這個理想目標會發生什麼樣的變化?

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Mike. So a couple of things. We are continuing to see good demand for our premium product with the team, both on the revenue side and how we manage it. And also, we still have a lot of marketing opportunity and upsell to go. So I still expect good strength there. We added a role on our 175s additional premium class. We're also -- we'll be adding additional premium class in our 8s and 9s with our -- some of our reconfiguration. Of course, the challenge always is making sure that we don't completely squeeze out our top-tier leads from the front cabin, and we feel like we've received a full good balance there.

    麥克風。有幾件事。我們繼續看到團隊對我們的優質產品的良好需求,無論是在收入方面還是我們的管理方式方面。而且,我們還有很多行銷機會和追加銷售機會。所以我還是期待那裡有不錯的實力。我們在 175s 額外高級艙中增加了一個角色。我們還將透過一些重新配置在 8 和 9 中添加額外的高級艙。當然,挑戰始終是確保我們不會完全從前艙擠出我們的頂級線索,而且我們感覺我們已經在那裡獲得了充分的良好平衡。

  • But -- and overall, we continue to look at our cabins, and we continue to look at our network and we continue to look at what are the right seats and densification of our premium cabins given the environment and especially if we continue to see this remain strong.

    但是,總的來說,我們會繼續關注我們的客艙,我們會繼續關注我們的網絡,我們會繼續關注考慮到環境的情況,什麼是合適的座位以及我們的高級客艙的密度,特別是如果我們繼續看到這一點的話保持堅強。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • And Mike, I just want to shine a little more of a light on your question. Again, we had a 7.5% pretax margin close to United and Delta, again, without the international tailwinds with the fuel headwinds and yet our margin was as high as it was, simply because of your question, because of our premium offering.

    麥克,我只是想進一步闡明你的問題。同樣,我們的稅前利潤率為7.5%,接近美聯航和達美航空,同樣,沒有國際順風和燃油逆風,但我們的利潤率仍然如此之高,僅僅是因為你的問題,因為我們的溢價產品。

  • Our business model competes with the network carriers. We are differentiated domestically with our competitors. Our airplanes are 100% fully configured in premium, again, with our loyalty program, with the way the business miles stood up with lounges. So it is a reason why we see success even when there's shift between domestic and international. And again, we'll have more success with the Hawaiian acquisition. So I just wanted to shine a bit more of a light on that.

    我們的商業模式與網路營運商競爭。我們在國內與競爭對手相比具有差異化優勢。我們的飛機 100% 完全配置為高級,同樣,透過我們的忠誠度計劃,以及商務里程與休息室的方式。因此,這就是為什麼即使國內和國際之間存在轉變,我們仍能看到成功的原因。再說一次,我們將在夏威夷收購中取得更大的成功。所以我只是想更多地關注這一點。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Great. And just sort of a follow-up and maybe it just sort of leads to this next question, which Andrew, are you sort of making that comment about part of the industry really starting to acknowledge what you refer to as these post-COVID demand realities. And I'm curious, at least from the low end, in any of your markets, what you're seeing on competitive capacity, maybe any notable markets that you want to call out where you've seen some meaningful shift that should be to your benefit? Any color there would be great infact.

    偉大的。這只是一種後續行動,也許這會引出下一個問題,安德魯,您對部分行業的評論是否真的開始承認您所說的這些後疫情時代的需求現實? 。我很好奇,至少從低端市場來看,在你們的任何市場中,你們在競爭能力方面看到了什麼,也許是你們想要指出的任何值得注意的市場,你們已經看到了一些有意義的轉變,這些轉變應該是你的好處?事實上,任何顏色都會很棒。

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Yes. I think the only color I'd probably add there, Mike, is -- and I also -- when we look at it, we look at weighted average capacity in our markets, and we just see a trend that's getting less and less. We have seen some carriers who play more on the East Coast, move into the West Coast and reduce their capacity. Again, as the industry looks to make sure that their revenues and their costs all work to make sure margins are strong and healthy. So we see the construct for the industry right now is 1 that's positive.

    是的。麥克,我認為我可能要添加的唯一顏色是——我也是——當我們審視它時,我們關注我們市場的加權平均容量,我們只是看到一種越來越少的趨勢。我們看到一些航空公司在東海岸運營較多,轉而進入西海岸並減少運力。同樣,該行業希望確保其收入和成本都能夠確保利潤強勁且健康。因此,我們認為該行業目前的結構是 1,這是積極的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Stephen Trent with Citigroup.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的史蒂芬‧特倫特。

  • Stephen Trent - Director

    Stephen Trent - Director

  • Most of my questions have been answered. Just 1 really quick one. This might be for you, Shane. When do you think about that very good credit rating you guys have from Moody's. To what extent does 1 or 2 moves up or 1 or 2 moves down, make a meaningful difference as you guys go in negotiate with your co-branded card and fuel hedge counterparties and other similar entities.

    我的大部分問題都得到了解答。只有 1 個非常快的。這可能適合你,謝恩。你什麼時候想到穆迪公司給你們的非常好的信用評級?當你們與聯合品牌卡和燃料對沖交易對手以及其他類似實體進行談判時,1 或 2 次上漲或 1 或 2 次下跌在多大程度上會產生有意義的影響。

  • Nathaniel Pieper - SVP of Fleet, Finance and Alliances

    Nathaniel Pieper - SVP of Fleet, Finance and Alliances

  • Stephen, great question. It's Nat. One of the many hats I wear as Treasurer and getting a ratings agency question is just Manna from heaven. So thank you. Really excited that Moody's gave us the investment-grade rating. We've got a really good story as Ben hit through in his commentary, cost execution, terrific operation. Balance sheet has been core for so long. And we look at that investment-grade rating just as affirmation from an external source that our story is very strong. It certainly helps us when we go into the capital markets, we go negotiate whether it's for leases, fuel contracts, et cetera, as you say.

    史蒂芬,好問題。這是納特。身為財務主管,我所戴的眾多帽子之一就是來自天堂的甘露。所以謝謝。穆迪給我們投資等級真是太興奮了。我們有一個非常好的故事,本在他的評論中指出了成本執行和出色的操作。長期以來,資產負債表一直是核心。我們將投資級評級視為外部來源對我們的故事非常有說服力的肯定。當我們進入資本市場時,這肯定對我們有幫助,我們會談判租賃、燃料合約等,正如你所說。

  • And it also gives us confidence as with the Hawaiian acquisition and really moving forward, seeing recognition from external parties that the Alaska story is strategically sound.

    這也讓我們對夏威夷的收購充滿信心,並真正向前邁進,看到外部各方認可阿拉斯加的故事在戰略上是合理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll move next to Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

    我們將接聽 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie 的演講。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • So I guess my first question is for Andrew. Going back to the script and the more to come comment, of course, that's going to be my question here. So optimizing upsells, NDC, better merchandising, I guess, first, has Alaska cut over to NDC at this point? And then related to that, how many bookings and how much revenue is on third-party GDSs today?

    所以我想我的第一個問題是問安德魯的。回到劇本和更多評論,當然,這將是我的問題。因此,優化追加銷售、NDC、更好的銷售,我想,首先,阿拉斯加現在是否已經轉向 NDC 了?與此相關的是,目前第三方 GDS 的預訂量和收入是多少?

  • And I guess what I'm really trying to get at is just the percent of tickets Alaska is upselling today on third-party GDSs and what that upsell take rate might look like on alaskaair.com?

    我想我真正想要了解的只是阿拉斯加今天在第三方 GDS 上追加銷售的機票的百分比,以及 alaskaair.com 上的追加銷售率可能是什麼樣的?

  • Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

    Andrew R. Harrison - Chief Revenue Officer, Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP

  • Thanks, Dan. Just in short, we are -- this '24 is a big year for us. There's something like 12 APIs that we're building out to fully unlock NDC. We have a number of modules already up and running on folks like hopper. So it's actually small percentages right now, but we're seeing the benefits of it, and it's going to be really good for us, '25 is going to be the year of NDC for us.

    謝謝,丹。簡而言之,24 年對我們來說是重要的一年。我們正在建立 12 個 API 來完全解鎖 NDC。我們有許多模組已經在像 hopper 這樣的人上啟動並運行。所以現在它實際上只佔很小的百分比,但我們看到了它的好處,這對我們來說真的很好,25 年將是我們的 NDC 年。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • We're building the piping this year. That's what you're saying.

    今年我們正在建造管道。這就是你所說的。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And I guess another question on IT. Has Alaska begun the transition to the cloud? And if that's something you're looking at, could you help us size that level of cost savings from that shift? And also elaborate a little bit on timing?

    好的。明白了。我猜還有一個關於 IT 的問題。阿拉斯加已經開始向雲端過渡了嗎?如果您正在考慮這一點,您能否幫助我們衡量這項轉變帶來的成本節省水準?並且也詳細說明了一些時間安排?

  • Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

    Shane R. Tackett - CFO & Executive VP of Finance

  • Dan. We have been transitioning to modern platforms for a while starting 6, 7 years ago through the Virgin transition. We are starting to move more of our core IT and more of our sort of commercial e-commerce technology stack into the cloud. We're big fans of our partners up here in the Pacific Northwest Microsoft, but we also use other folks as well as them.

    擔。從六、七年前開始,透過維珍轉型,我們已經向現代平台過渡了一段時間。我們開始將更多的核心 IT 和更多的商業電子商務技術堆疊轉移到雲端。我們是太平洋西北地區 Microsoft 合作夥伴的忠實粉絲,但我們也使用其他人以及他們。

  • I think the big thing is it's a cost increase. It's a CapEx increase initially and then you need to scale over many, many, many years. And I think it's going to bode well ultimately for cost efficiency in the years to come.

    我認為最重要的是成本增加。最初是資本支出的增加,然後你需要在很多很多年的時間內擴展。我認為這最終對於未來幾年的成本效率來說是個好兆頭。

  • The other thing is we are going to benefit from artificial intelligence, Gen AI. We've set up a full team to go focus on that. We're lucky to be in sort of one of the tech capitals of the world who are working on this stuff with a really great partner of Microsoft up the street. So not anymore today because the time is over or I would have gone on for 5 minutes with you.

    另一件事是我們將從人工智慧 Gen AI 中受益。我們已經成立了一個完整的團隊來專注於此。我們很幸運能夠身處世界科技之都之一,與微軟的一位非常出色的合作夥伴一起致力於這項工作。所以今天不再這樣了,因為時間已經結束了,否則我會和你一起繼續 5 分鐘。

  • But we're going to get an Investor Day together this year, and we want to talk about technology and AI and the benefits to the company when we get in front of all of you guys later this year. I appreciate everybody's question we'll have Ben wrap it up.

    但今年我們將一起舉辦投資者日,當我們今年晚些時候在你們所有人面前時,我們想討論技術和人工智慧以及為公司帶來的好處。我感謝大家的提問,我們會讓本來總結一下。

  • Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

    Benito Minicucci - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks everybody for joining us on our call. Thank you so much. We will keep you updated on our progress with the 9 MAX and thank you so much, and talk to you next time.

    感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。太感謝了。我們將隨時向您通報 9 MAX 的最新進展,非常感謝您,我們下次再聊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. Goodbye.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。再見。