阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. After our speakers' remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for analysts.

早上好，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加阿拉斯加航空集團 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音，將來可在 alaskaair.com 上回放。演講者發言後，我們將為分析師舉行問答環節。

I would like to now turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Planning, and Investor Relations, Ryan St. John.

我現在想將電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團財務、規劃和投資者關係副總裁瑞安·聖約翰 (Ryan St. John)。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2023 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release, which is available at investor.alaskaair.com. On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝您，接線員，早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告，可在 Investor.alaskaair.com 上獲取。在今天的電話會議上，您將聽到本、安德魯和肖恩的最新消息。我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在電話問答部分在線回答您的問題。

This morning, Air Group reported second quarter GAAP net income of $240 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $387 million. As a reminder, our comments today will include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results. Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found within our SEC filings.

今天上午，Air Group 報告第二季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 2.4 億美元。不包括特殊項目和按市值計價的燃油對沖調整，Air Group 公佈的調整後淨利潤為 3.87 億美元。提醒一下，我們今天的評論將包括有關未來業績的前瞻性陳述，這可能與我們的實際結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的信息可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we've provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release.

我們還將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標，例如調整後的收益和單位成本（不包括燃料）。和往常一樣，我們在今天的財報中提供了最直接可比的公認會計原則和非公認會計原則衡量指標之間的調節表。

Over to you, Ben.

交給你了，本。

Thanks, Ryan. And good morning, everyone. Our solid second quarter results reflect the strength of the leisure demand environment to date as well as our team's unwavering commitment to operational excellence and reliability. I am thankful for their focus which has helped us capitalize on this busy travel season to produce these great results.

謝謝，瑞安。大家早上好。我們第二季度的穩健業績反映了迄今為止休閒需求環境的強勁勢頭，以及我們團隊對卓越運營和可靠性的堅定承諾。我感謝他們的關注，幫助我們利用這個繁忙的旅行季節取得了這些出色的成果。

Our 18.3% pretax margin will likely lead the industry coming in above 2019 margins despite higher fuel and structurally higher costs. Our earnings per share of $3 was $0.83 higher than 2019 levels, bringing us above 2019 on a year-to-date basis and beating consensus by 11%. The strength of demand this quarter was evident on June 30 when we flew the most passengers in a single day in Air Group's history. And at a 99.5% completion rate, we ran one of the best operations in the country as we continue to prioritize completing flights and serving our guests with care. This was 1.7 points better than 2022 and 0.3 points better than 2019.

儘管燃料價格上漲且結構性成本較高，但我們 18.3% 的稅前利潤率可能會引領行業，實現高於 2019 年的利潤率。我們的每股收益為 3 美元，比 2019 年的水平高出 0.83 美元，使我們今年迄今的收益高於 2019 年水平，比市場預期高出 11%。本季度的需求強勁在 6 月 30 日表現得很明顯，當時我們創下了航空集團歷史上單日載客量最多的紀錄。我們以 99.5% 的完成率，運營著全國最好的運營之一，我們繼續優先考慮完成航班並為乘客提供貼心服務。這比 2022 年好 1.7 個百分點，比 2019 年好 0.3 個百分點。

Heading into the busy summer period, we have planned and prepared our airline for peak flying, and our teams are executing. Over the 4th of July weekend, we led the industry in completion rate at 99.8% and on-time performance at 85.1% while flying a 90% load factor. As we approach the rest of the year and beyond, it is clear our environment is evolving as domestic leisure fares have recently started to come down from their peaks.

進入繁忙的夏季，我們已經為航空公司的高峰飛行做好了規劃和準備，我們的團隊正在執行。在 7 月 4 日的周末，我們的完成率達到了 99.8%，準點率達到了 85.1%，同時客座率達到了 90%，在行業中處於領先地位。隨著今年剩餘時間及以後的時間的臨近，我們的環境顯然正在發生變化，因為國內休閒票價最近開始從峰值回落。

Delivering on our targets will not be without challenges, but we remain focused on restoring the tenants of our resilient business model, driving improvements in efficiency and productivity and controlling unit costs to continue to deliver strong financial performance. We remain confident in hitting our financial targets this year including our adjusted pretax margin of 9% to 12% and earnings per share of $5.50 to $7.50.

實現我們的目標並非沒有挑戰，但我們仍然專注於恢復彈性業務模式的租戶，推動效率和生產力的提高，並控制單位成本，以繼續提供強勁的財務業績。我們仍然有信心實現今年的財務目標，包括調整後的稅前利潤率為 9% 至 12%，每股收益為 5.50 美元至 7.50 美元。

Now turning to an update on our business priorities and progress. We have chosen to prioritize reliability and are running a strong operation like we have historically done. Not only do our guests deserve this level of commitment and excellence, but it is imperative to restoring stability improving predictability, capturing revenue and building a foundation to drive further improvement to the business.

現在介紹我們業務優先事項和進展的最新情況。我們選擇優先考慮可靠性，並像以往一樣進行強大的運營。我們的客人不僅應該得到這種程度的承諾和卓越，而且還必須恢復穩定性、提高可預測性、獲取收入並為推動業務的進一步改進奠定基礎。

Our investments in training, aircraft and staffing have enabled us to meet a higher level of flying. Higher completion rate performance has surpassed our initial expectations, driving approximately half of the 3-point increase of capacity in our full year guide. Productivity is also improving as we adjust to new work behaviors amidst a more stable operating environment and work to close the gap to 2019 levels.

我們在培訓、飛機和人員配備方面的投資使我們能夠達到更高的飛行水平。更高的完成率表現超出了我們最初的預期，推動了我們全年指南中約一半的產能增長 3 點。隨著我們在更穩定的運營環境中適應新的工作行為，並努力縮小與 2019 年水平的差距，生產力也在提高。

Boeing has also continued to be a great partner, delivering according to expectations despite continued disruptions within their supply chain. Earlier this month, we welcomed our 53rd MAX into the fleet. The up-gauging benefit of these aircraft are significant. While departures were down on 1.3% year-over-year this quarter, higher gauge, coupled with mainline utilization, exceeded 2019 levels by 4% at 11.5 hours per day. And drove capacity up 9.9% year-over-year as we continue to leverage our fixed cost assets as much as possible.

波音公司也仍然是一個偉大的合作夥伴，儘管其供應鏈持續中斷，但仍按預期交付。本月早些時候，我們迎來了第 53 架 MAX 加入機隊。這些飛機的升級效益非常顯著。雖然本季度出發航班數量同比下降 1.3%，但軌距提高，加上乾線利用率，比 2019 年的水平高出 4%，達到每天 11.5 小時。隨著我們繼續盡可能地利用固定成本資產，運力同比增長 9.9%。

As we transition to a fully Boeing fleet at Alaska, this efficient growth has helped us derisk our growth plan within a constrained industry operating environment. Given our expectation of continued strong operational execution, adequate staffing and efficient growth, we have raised our full year capacity guide to 11% to 13% versus 2022. As we work to restore all areas of our network to pre-pandemic levels, we are confident in our resources to meet this higher level of flying and balance our growth aspirations with a consistent commitment to excellence.

隨著我們在阿拉斯加過渡到全波音機隊，這種高效的增長幫助我們在受限的行業運營環境中消除了增長計劃的風險。鑑於我們對持續強勁的運營執行、充足的人員配備和高效增長的期望，我們已將全年產能指導提高至 2022 年的 11% 至 13%。在我們努力將網絡的所有區域恢復到大流行前的水平時，我們正在我們對我們的資源充滿信心，能夠滿足更高的飛行水平，並在我們的增長願望與對卓越的一貫承諾之間取得平衡。

Our business is configured to compete, and we doubled down on these core advantages to reinforce our foundation for profitable growth. We are returning to our historical strength as a single fleet operator and have rebuilt our foundation of operational excellence. We continue to push incrementally more on productivity and costs and still expect to be one of the only in the industry to drive unit costs lower year-over-year even when factoring in our industry-leading performance-based pay, which several of our peers exclude.

我們的業務旨在競爭，我們加倍努力發揮這些核心優勢，以鞏固我們盈利增長的基礎。我們正在恢復作為單一車隊運營商的歷史實力，並重建了卓越運營的基礎。我們繼續逐步提高生產率和成本，並且仍然希望成為業內唯一能夠逐年降低單位成本的公司之一，即使考慮到我們行業領先的基於績效的薪酬（我們的一些同行也採用了績效工資）排除。

We are executing on our commercial road map and making progress on revenue initiatives. Our balance sheet remains unimpaired coming out of the crisis with leverage well within our long-term target range, and we have line of sight to full year earnings per share on par with 2019, despite structurally higher labor costs and at least 30% higher fuel costs.

我們正在執行我們的商業路線圖，並在收入計劃方面取得進展。走出危機後，我們的資產負債表仍未受到損害，槓桿率遠在我們的長期目標範圍內，儘管勞動力成本結構性上漲且燃料成本上漲至少 30%，但我們預計全年每股收益將與 2019 年持平成本。

For decades, Air Group has adapted and will continue to do so to produce consistent, profitable growth. As you well know, this industry is challenging, yet we remain focused on the drivers of our long-term success, restoring and strengthening our competitive advantages. Operational excellence, cost discipline and high productivity in a consistent and measured way will continue to position us well now and far into the future.

幾十年來，航空集團已經並將繼續這樣做，以實現持續的盈利增長。眾所周知，這個行業充滿挑戰，但我們仍然專注於長期成功的驅動因素，恢復和加強我們的競爭優勢。卓越的運營、成本控制和高生產率將繼續使我們在現在和遙遠的未來保持良好的地位。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will focus on second quarter results as well as our revenue outlook for the rest of the year. We produced very solid second quarter results. Our record high revenues of $2.8 billion were up 6.8% versus the second quarter of 2022 and above the high end of our guide, driven by strong leisure and close in demand.

謝謝，本，大家早上好。我今天的評論將重點關注第二季度業績以及我們今年剩餘時間的收入前景。我們第二季度的業績非常強勁。在強勁的休閒和封閉需求的推動下，我們的收入達到創紀錄的 28 億美元，較 2022 年第二季度增長 6.8%，高於我們的指導上限。

To close out the quarter, on June 30, we recorded our second best revenue day in our history, only to be outperformed by the Sunday of Thanksgiving last year. Capacity for the quarter was up 9.9% versus the second quarter of 2022, and our planes continue to fly full. With load factors increasing from 85.5% in April to 86.4% in May and 89.1% in June, the second highest monthly load factor in our history.

在本季度結束時，6 月 30 日，我們創下了歷史上第二高的收入日，但去年感恩節星期日的表現卻超過了這一天。與 2022 年第二季度相比，本季度的運力增長了 9.9%，並且我們的飛機繼續滿員飛行。載客率從 4 月的 85.5% 上升至 5 月的 86.4% 和 6 月的 89.1%，創下我們歷史上第二高的月度載客率。

Turning to unit revenues. Changes are noisy on a year-over-year basis at down 2.9% given both volatile pricing and capacity in 2022. However, when compared to a more stable 2019, we saw improvement in unit revenues of 23% for the quarter, with June up 25%. We still expect July to produce the highest total revenue of any month in 2023, which is consistent with pre-COVID trends, but for the second straight year, June has supplanted July as the peak yield month for us.

轉向單位收入。鑑於 2022 年價格和產能的波動，同比變化較大，下降了 2.9%。然而，與更穩定的 2019 年相比，我們看到本季度的單位收入提高了 23%，其中 6 月份增長了25%。我們仍然預計 7 月將產生 2023 年任何月份中最高的總收入，這與新冠​​疫情爆發前的趨勢一致，但 6 月已連續第二年取代 7 月成為我們的最高收益率月份。

Regarding product, strength in premium cabin revenues continue to support our revenue momentum. We launched the sale of exit row seats in mid-March, and I'm pleased to report sales have been strong right out of the gate. Including exit rows, first and premium class revenues were both up approximately 12% year-over-year, outpacing main cabin by 8 points. In the second quarter, 31% of total revenues came from premium class products, up from 2022 and up 7 points from 2019.

在產品方面，高級客艙收入的強勁繼續支撐著我們的收入勢頭。我們於三月中旬推出了出口排座位的銷售，我很高興地報告，銷售一開始就表現強勁。包括出口排在內，頭等艙和豪華艙收入均同比增長約 12%，比經濟艙高出 8 個百分點。第二季度，總收入的 31% 來自高端產品，較 2022 年有所上升，較 2019 年上升了 7 個百分點。

On the loyalty side, performance remains strong with bank cash remuneration up 15% versus the second quarter of 2022, outpacing our system revenue growth rate by 2x. As always, we continue to prioritize delivering value to our guests through our loyalty program, and we are proud to have been named the #1 best airline reward program for 2023 and 2024 from U.S. News earlier today.

在忠誠度方面，業績依然強勁，銀行現金薪酬較 2022 年第二季度增長 15%，超過我們系統收入增長率的 2 倍。一如既往，我們繼續優先考慮通過我們的忠誠度計劃為乘客提供價值，我們很自豪今天早些時候被《美國新聞與世界報導》評為 2023 年和 2024 年排名第一的最佳航空公司獎勵計劃。

Lastly, we are now selling 9 of our partners on alaskaair.com and anticipate bringing on our tenth partner this fall. Phase 1 is to sell and service main cabin tickets. But later this year, we will add the ability to sell premium cabins on our website, helping us to achieve our vision of providing our guests seamless, ticketing capability on our portfolio of global partners with access to any major region of the world.

最後，我們現在正在 alaskaair.com 上出售 9 個合作夥伴，並預計今年秋天引入第十個合作夥伴。第一階段是主艙機票的銷售和服務。但今年晚些時候，我們將在網站上增加銷售高級客艙的功能，幫助我們實現我們的願景，即通過我們的全球合作夥伴組合為客人提供無縫的票務服務，讓他們能夠進入世界任何主要地區。

Now I'll turn to our outlook and forward-looking guidance. Demand remains very strong even as we've come off the peak of historically high fares, a trend we knew would happen at some point. Notwithstanding this evolution, yield is still meaningfully above 2019 levels on industry capacity that has now surpassed 2019 levels by an estimated 6% for the second half of 2023. For the third quarter, we expect revenues to be flat to up 3% on capacity that is up 10% to 13% versus 2022. This implies unit revenues down approximately 9% at the midpoint. Our revenue guide is based on the environment we see today with 67% of third quarter revenues on the books.

現在我將談談我們的展望和前瞻性指導。即使我們已經脫離了歷史最高票價的峰值，需求仍然非常強勁，我們知道這種趨勢在某個時候會發生。儘管發生了這種變化，但行業產能的收益率仍顯著高於 2019 年的水平，預計 2023 年下半年的產能將超過 2019 年的 6%。對於第三季度，我們預計收入將持平至增長 3%。與 2022 年相比增長 10% 至 13%。這意味著單位收入中點下降約 9%。我們的收入指南是基於我們今天所看到的環境，第三季度收入佔賬面收入的 67%。

When comparing our Q3 revenue guide to our Q2 results, this implies a 6-point sequential deceleration in unit revenue performance. Of that 6 points, roughly half is directly related to the pricing environment, while the other half is a combination of domestic industry capacity growth tracking to be up 10% year-over-year, our stage length growth and holiday timing shifts.

將我們的第三季度收入指南與第二季度的結果進行比較時，這意味著單位收入業績連續下降 6 個百分點。這六點中，大約一半與定價環境直接相關，另一半則是國內行業產能同比增長10%、我們的階段長度增長和假期時間變化的結合。

As a primarily domestic leisure carrier, this summer presents a unique situation with the unprecedented surge in international demand, not dissimilar to the domestic surge last year. We believe pent-up international demand has had the effect of a larger pool from would be domestic travelers than has historically been the case.

作為一家以國內休閒為主的航空公司，今年夏天呈現出獨特的局面，國際需求空前激增，與去年國內需求的激增沒有什麼不同。我們認為，被壓抑的國際需求已經產生了比歷史上更多的國內游客群體的影響。

Long-haul international seats of the West Coast are up 31% year-over-year this June. Our loyalty members alone in June, as evidenced by approval and redemption activity, we're filling the equivalent of 18 787s on a daily basis across our international partner network. Up over 50% year-over-year, while our lounges experienced a 68% increase in visits from guests traveling internationally. While we believe this will ultimately normalize, there is a disproportionate impact on our realized domestic fares in the third quarter, which we estimate could impact our Q3 revenue performance by approximately 0.5% to 1%, which is reflected in our guide.

今年 6 月，西海岸的長途國際航班座位數同比增長 31%。僅 6 月份，我們的忠誠會員就通過我們的國際合作夥伴網絡每天填充相當於 18 787 架飛機的批准和兌換活動。同比增長超過 50%，而我們貴賓室的國際旅客訪問量增長了 68%。雖然我們相信這最終會正常化，但對我們第三季度實現的國內票價產生了不成比例的影響，我們估計這可能會對我們第三季度的收入表現產生約 0.5% 至 1% 的影響，這在我們的指南中有所反映。

Close-in demand is another important dynamic to address. Having improved recently, the percentage of passengers booked and flown within months during Q2 surpassed both 2022 and 2019 levels. This is particularly significant when compared to 2019, given our stage length has increased 7%, where passengers skewed to more advanced booking patterns and business volumes remain down 25%.

近距離需求是另一個需要解決的重要動態。最近有所改善，第二季度幾個月內預訂和飛行的乘客比例超過了 2022 年和 2019 年的水平。與 2019 年相比，這一點尤為重要，因為我們的航段長度增加了 7%，乘客傾向於更先進的預訂模式，而業務量仍下降了 25%。

Although currently not in our forecast, if this trend persists, this represents an additional 100 basis points of revenue upside to our current third quarter guide. Lastly, as it pertains to manage business travel, we have not seen any meaningful change remaining around 75% recovered by volume with both California and the technology sector still accounting for the largest gap to full recovery. However, we have seen more return-to-office efforts at major tech companies and are incrementally more optimistic that we might finally break through the 75% recovered ceiling. Although we have not baked any of this into our guidance, we will continue to watch this closely as we move into the fall.

雖然目前不在我們的預測範圍內，但如果這種趨勢持續下去，這意味著我們當前的第三季度收入預期將增加 100 個基點。最後，就商務旅行管理而言，我們沒有看到任何有意義的變化，按數量計算，恢復量約為 75%，加州和科技行業仍佔全面恢復的最大差距。然而，我們看到主要科技公司有更多重返辦公室的努力，並且越來越樂觀地認為我們最終可能會突破 75% 的恢復上限。儘管我們尚未將這些納入我們的指導，但隨著秋季的到來，我們將繼續密切關注這一點。

For the full year, our revenue guide remains unchanged at up 8% to 10% versus 2022, but on higher capacity growth of 11% to 13%. While our capacity is taking a step up in the third quarter and full year, in part due to strong operational performance, it is primarily driven by Alaska's gauge and stage growth as we benefit from the replacement of the Airbus fleet with larger, more efficient MAX aircraft.

就全年而言，我們的收入指引保持不變，與 2022 年相比增長 8% 至 10%，但運力增長更高，為 11% 至 13%。雖然我們的運力在第三季度和全年有所提高，部分原因是強勁的運營業績，但主要是由阿拉斯加的軌距和階段增長推動的，因為我們受益於用更大、更高效的 MAX 取代空客機隊飛機。

As a reminder, by September 30, we will have replaced all 72 Airbus aircraft at an average gauge of 150 seats with brand-new MAX 9s that have 28 more seats. The benefits of upgauging are clear in our June results as gauge has grown 7% year-over-year, yet our load factor was only down [0.4] of a point year-over-year from what was the highest load factor ever flown in our history.

謹此提醒，到 9 月 30 日，我們將把所有 72 架平均規格為 150 個座位的空客飛機更換為擁有 28 個座位的全新 MAX 9。在我們 6 月份的業績中，升級的好處顯而易見，因為軌距同比增長了 7%，但我們的載客率僅比去年同期的最高載客率下降了 [0.4] 個百分點。我們的歷史。

At a system level, we have restored ASMs in the second half of the year to approximately 103% of 2019, but there are still areas within our network, including Portland and California that are not fully restored. The West Coast is still the least recovered geography across the industry, and we are focused on restoring our pre-pandemic network, especially, where we have opportunities to provide feed for international partners.

在系統層面，我們下半年的ASM已恢復到2019年的約103%，但我們的網絡內仍有一些區域沒有完全恢復，包括波特蘭和加利福尼亞州。西海岸仍然是整個行業恢復最差的地區，我們致力於恢復大流行前的網絡，特別是在我們有機會為國際合作夥伴提供飼料的地方。

In a period of historically high demand in yields, the right economic decision has been to fly and maximize ASMs within our fleet and crew capabilities. That said, if we identify pockets of relative softening, we will adjust as needed to deploy our capacity thoughtfully.

在歷史上產量需求較高的時期，正確的經濟決策是在我們的機隊和機組人員能力範圍內飛行並最大限度地利用反導導彈。也就是說，如果我們發現相對疲軟的部分，我們將根據需要進行調整，以深思熟慮地部署我們的產能。

While the industry continues to normalize and work towards a new, more predictable environment, we have confidence in our commercial plane with business travel still below historical levels and the West Coast lease recovered, we believe there is more upside to come as we head towards 2024. We are focused on pursuing and implementing our longer-term strategic drivers of profitable growth, specifically, our partnership in Oneworld and the West Coast International Alliance, our premium products and our loyalty program. Our value proposition is significant, our initiatives tangible and our product well suited to traveler needs post pandemic, positioning us well to continue to serve guests and build on our strong results going forward.

雖然行業繼續正常化並努力建立一個新的、更可預測的環境，但我們對我們的商用飛機充滿信心，商務旅行仍低於歷史水平，而且西海岸租賃已恢復，我們相信，隨著我們邁向 2024 年，還有更多的上升空間. 我們專注於追求和實施利潤增長的長期戰略驅動力，特別是我們與寰宇一家和西海岸國際聯盟的合作夥伴關係、我們的優質產品和忠誠度計劃。我們的價值主張意義重大，我們的舉措切實可行，我們的產品非常適合疫情后的旅行者需求，使我們能夠繼續為客人提供服務，並在未來的強勁業績基礎上再接再厲。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Shane.

接下來，我會把它交給謝恩。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. As both Ben and Andrew shared, we saw continued strong demand throughout the second quarter, carrying a record number of passengers, both to end the period and into the 4th of July holiday. Our teams have done an excellent job this summer delivering a safe, reliable operation in the midst of full flights and very busy airports.

謝謝安德魯，大家早上好。正如 Ben 和 Andrew 所分享的那樣，我們看到整個第二季度的需求持續強勁，載客量創歷史新高，直至該季度末和 7 月 4 日假期為止。今年夏天，我們的團隊表現出色，在航班滿載和非常繁忙的機場中提供安全、可靠的運營。

Now that we've restored operation -- which we view it as our first priority, we now look forward to added focus on driving consistent improvement to our unit cost profile. Ultimately, operational excellence leads to cost-efficient operations, and coupled together, they will allow us to continue to deliver strong relative financial results within the industry.

現在我們已經恢復運營——我們將其視為我們的首要任務，現在我們期待著更加註重推動單位成本狀況的持續改善。最終，卓越的運營會帶來成本效益的運營，兩者結合在一起，將使我們能夠繼續在行業內取得相對強勁的財務業績。

Turning to results. Our balance sheet and liquidity positions remain healthy and a core strength of ours. Debt to cap finished the quarter at 48%, while our net debt-to-EBITDA remains below 1 turn and better than where it stood in second quarter 2019 at 0.9x. Debt payments were approximately $50 million for the quarter and are expected to be $100 million in the third quarter. With a strong demand backdrop in start of summer travel, we generated approximately $600 million in cash flow from operations during the quarter.

轉向結果。我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況保持健康，是我們的核心優勢。本季度末債務上限為 48%，而我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 之比仍低於 1 倍，好於 2019 年第二季度的 0.9 倍。本季度債務支付額約為 5000 萬美元，預計第三季度將達到 1 億美元。在夏季旅遊開始的強勁需求背景下，我們本季度的運營現金流產生了約 6 億美元。

Total liquidity, inclusive of on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit remains very healthy and within our target liquidity range at $2.8 billion. Also, our share repurchases for the year have reached approximately $60 million year-to-date and our trailing 12-month return on invested capital reached nearly 12% this quarter.

包括手頭現金和未提取信貸額度在內的總流動性仍然非常健康，處於我們 28 億美元的目標流動性範圍內。此外，我們今年的股票回購額今年迄今已達到約 6000 萬美元，本季度過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率達到近 12%。

Turning to costs and capacity results. As I noted, our operation has been running extremely well. For the second quarter, capacity was up 9.9% versus Q2 2022, above the high end of our guided range, which is primarily driven by a higher completion rate than we had originally planned. Our completion rate has been 99.7% over the last few months. And given this, we have higher completion for the balance of the year, resulting in slightly higher capacity forecasts for the third quarter, which we expect to be up 10% to 13% and for the full year, which we expect to now be up 11% to 13% versus 2022.

轉向成本和容量結果。正如我所指出的，我們的運營一直運行得非常好。第二季度的產能較 2022 年第二季度增長 9.9%，高於我們指導範圍的上限，這主要是由於完成率高於我們最初的計劃。過去幾個月我們的完成率為 99.7%。鑑於此，我們今年剩餘時間的完成率更高，導致第三季度的產能預測略高，我們預計將增長 10% 至 13%，全年的產能預測將增長 10% 至 13%，我們現在預計將增長與 2022 年相比，增長 11% 至 13%。

Moving to costs. Our second quarter CASMex was up 2.4% year-over-year, within our guided range, albeit on higher incremental capacity. While we did not miss our range, we, of course, expect to be at midpoint or better when we outperform on capacity.

轉向成本。我們第二季度的 CASMex 同比增長 2.4%，在我們的指導範圍內，儘管增量容量較高。雖然我們沒有錯過我們的範圍，但我們當然期望當我們在容量方面表現出色時，我們會達到中間值或更好。

The drivers away from midpoint or better are predominantly not structural. They are relatively small misses against what we know were aggressive cost and productivity targets. To be clear, our cost profile continues to improve, both sequentially and year-on-year. And in comparison to the rest of the industry, we believe we have the best cost trends, especially given we are growing at a somewhat slower rate than many of our primary competitors.

遠離中點或更好的驅動因素主要不是結構性的。與我們所知的激進的成本和生產率目標相比，它們的偏差相對較小。需要明確的是，我們的成本狀況持續改善，無論是環比還是同比。與行業其他公司相比，我們相信我們擁有最好的成本趨勢，特別是考慮到我們的增長速度比許多主要競爭對手要慢一些。

Areas where we saw elevated costs relative to expectation remain related to running a solid operation, including staffing levels modestly higher than planned and elevated overtime and premium pay. Ben and our leadership team have been clear with the company that operational excellence and consistency is the first priority. And having now established that, we will incrementally focus on working these cost areas down appropriately.

我們看到成本相對於預期較高的領域仍然與穩健運營有關，包括人員配備水平略高於計劃以及加班費和加班費的增加。 Ben 和我們的領導團隊已向公司明確表示，卓越運營和一致性是首要任務。現在已經確定了這一點，我們將逐步集中精力適當降低這些成本領域。

We also have slightly higher than forecasted crew costs associated with our transition out of the Airbus fleet. We assume higher levels of attrition from the fleet and are, as expected, incurring significant training costs related to transitioning Airbus pilots to Boeing.

由於我們從空客機隊轉型，我們的機組人員成本也略高於預期。我們假設機隊的人員流失率較高，並且正如預期的那樣，將空客飛行員轉至波音公司會產生大量培訓成本。

Turning to unit cost guidance. We expect third quarter CASMex to be flat to down 2%. For the full year, we still expect to see unit costs down 1% to 3% year-over-year. As a reminder, our CASMex guide includes profit sharing, and we anticipate that we may be the only airline that will achieve unit cost reductions year-over-year. And we will do this on less incremental capacity versus our peers.

轉向單位成本指導。我們預計第三季度 CASMex 將持平至下降 2%。就全年而言，我們仍預計單位成本將同比下降 1% 至 3%。提醒一下，我們的 CASMex 指南包括利潤分享，我們預計我們可能是唯一一家能夠逐年降低單位成本的航空公司。與同行相比，我們將以更少的增量產能來實現這一目標。

Finally, fuel trended positively falling below our previously guided range and finishing at $2.76 for the second quarter. Based on current trends, we expect fuel price per gallon to be $2.70 to $2.80 for the third quarter. While this offers a benefit compared to last year, fuel prices are still up approximately 30% above 2019.

最後，燃油價格呈積極趨勢，跌破我們之前的指導區間，第二季度收於 2.76 美元。根據當前趨勢，我們預計第三季度每加侖燃油價格為 2.70 美元至 2.80 美元。雖然與去年相比有所好處，但燃油價格仍比 2019 年上漲約 30%。

To wrap up, it feels like we are finally getting back to normalized operations after over 3 years of unprecedented challenges. We have work to do and opportunity to improve further, but we are delivering results within our guided ranges. As Ben mentioned, we are still tracking to deliver our 9% to 12% adjusted pretax margin this year with visibility towards an EPS restored to 2019 levels at the midpoint of both higher fuel and structurally higher labor costs.

總而言之，在經歷了三年多前所未有的挑戰之後，我們終於恢復了正常運營。我們還有工作要做，也有機會進一步改進，但我們正在我們的指導範圍內取得成果。正如 Ben 提到的，我們仍在努力實現今年 9% 至 12% 的調整後稅前利潤率，並且在燃料成本上漲和結構性勞動力成本上漲的情況下，每股收益將恢復到 2019 年的水平。

As I look forward, I think we have a very solid setup. We've got arguably the best absolute cost trends with further opportunity to drive unit costs down next year. We believe the West Coast is the least recovered region in the U.S. but also believe it will continue to recover, including business travel, which will provide future revenue tailwinds. We believe that once pent-up international demand is run through, there will be a normalization in the international versus domestic demand mix, further providing pricing support in our network, and we have further opportunity to drive our commercial initiatives.

展望未來，我認為我們有一個非常穩固的設置。我們可以說已經掌握了最好的絕對成本趨勢，明年還有進一步降低單位成本的機會。我們認為西海岸是美國復甦最緩慢的地區，但也相信它將繼續復甦，包括商務旅行，這將為未來的收入帶來推動力。我們相信，一旦被壓抑的國際需求得到滿足，國際與國內需求組合將實現正常化，進一步為我們的網絡提供定價支持，我們還有進一步的機會推動我們的商業計劃。

So even as we expect to compete for the industry's best margin again in Q3 and for the full year 2023, we know we also have the opportunity to further improve our margin performance in the years ahead.

因此，即使我們預計在第三季度和 2023 年全年再次爭奪行業最佳利潤率，我們也知道我們還有機會在未來幾年進一步提高我們的利潤率表現。

And with that, let's go to your questions.

接下來，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

So the RASM guide in the second half is clearly disappointing. You mentioned that Seattle South or West Coast was the least recovered. If we parse your network into 4 buckets, Hawaii, Seattle North, Seattle South and then Seattle East. Could you rank order them in terms of year-on-year RASM change, looking forward, not the second quarter, related to the guide?

所以下半年的RASM指南顯然令人失望。您提到西雅圖南部或西海岸恢復得最少。如果我們將您的網絡解析為 4 個存儲桶：夏威夷、西雅圖北、西雅圖南和西雅圖東。您能否按照與指南相關的 RASM 同比變化（展望未來，而不是第二季度）對它們進行排序？

Jamie, Andrew, that's maybe a little complicated off the top. I think what I would say is there is a lot going on in our network, but essentially, we continue to see California improving, both our margins versus 2022 and 2019, but it's the least recovered, but it's getting stronger as far as the Pacific Northwest, that's where most of our growth has gone.

傑米、安德魯，這可能有點複雜。我認為我想說的是，我們的網絡中發生了很多事情，但本質上，我們繼續看到加利福尼亞州的利潤率與 2022 年和 2019 年相比有所改善，但恢復最少，但就太平洋而言，它正在變得更強西北地區是我們大部分增長都消失的地方。

And again, we've seen really good unit revenue strength there. But I would say at the end of the day, as we've said in our prepared remarks, overall, we're coming off the high across the network, across the system from historically peak unit revenues. That said, our planes across the board are still extremely full.

我們再次看到那裡的單位收入實力非常強勁。但我想說，最終，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，總體而言，我們整個網絡、整個系統的單位收入正在擺脫歷史最高水平。儘管如此，我們的飛機仍然非常滿員。

And again, as we talked about, a lot of the things that we've got there in our guide haven't been fully baked in. And importantly, if you look at the recent results from the other big guys, essentially, they had a deceleration from Q2 to Q3 of 4 to 5 points, which they're anywhere up to half international, which is extremely strong, and we're only down decelerating 6 points. So on a relative basis, we feel really good about our performance.

再說一次，正如我們所討論的，我們指南中的很多內容還沒有完全融入其中。重要的是，如果你看看其他大公司最近的結果，本質上，他們有從第二季度到第三季度的減速為 4 到 5 個百分點，其中國際化程度高達一半，這是非常強勁的，而我們僅下降了 6 個百分點。因此，相對而言，我們對自己的表現感覺非常好。

Okay. And second, you spoke to 2024 ex-fuel CASM potentially declining. What level of capacity growth is required to get you into -- to push down ex-fuel CASM measurably next year?

好的。其次，您提到 2024 年的前燃油 CASM 可能會下降。明年需要多大程度的產能增長才能顯著降低前燃料 CASM？

Jamie, it's Shane. I think our -- we'd want to be in our sort of long-term target range of 4% to 8% to have line of sight to that. It's really early, obviously, in terms of thinking about capacity next year. But it's completely our intent to continue to drive it down and to see a year-over-year reduction in 2024.

傑米，我是肖恩。我認為我們希望將增長保持在 4% 至 8% 的長期目標範圍內，以便實現這一目標。顯然，就明年產能的考慮而言，現在還為時過早。但我們完全打算繼續降低這一數字，並在 2024 年實現同比下降。

And our next question comes from Andrew Didora from Bank of America Global Research.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行全球研究部的安德魯·迪多拉。

So Ben, Andrew, just maybe want to ask you about what seems to be a little bit of a change in -- little change in strategy here basically exchanging your trading yield for more capacity. I know you explained it as a little bit more completion factor, but -- why is now the right time to do that given the domestic international share shift? And would you considered cutting capacity in the back half of the year if fares remain soft?

所以，本、安德魯，也許只是想問你，策略上似乎有一點變化，基本上是用你的交易收益換取更多的能力。我知道您將其解釋為更多的完成因素，但是 - 鑑於國內國際份額的轉移，為什麼現在是這樣做的正確時機？如果票價仍然疲軟，您是否會考慮在下半年削減運力？

Andrew, yes, a couple of things. I just want to be clear on the capacity side and the 3-point increase from the guidance. None of this is new flying. It's been in our tapes for some time. And 50% of that is already sort of came in, in the first half of the year, and we're a little bit stale on the guide.

安德魯，是的，有幾件事。我只是想澄清容量方面以及指導值增加 3 點的情況。這些都不是新的飛行。它在我們的磁帶裡已經有一段時間了。其中 50% 已經在今年上半年出現了，而我們對指南的了解有點陳舊。

But we exceeded our completion rate and we've been very conservative. So half of that increased capacity is technically for the rest of the year. And again, it's all buried in completion rate, which has been extremely strong and also our Boeing and Airbus deliveries. We've firmed those up and we have -- excuse me, retirement of Airbus and Boeing deliveries, and we firm those up, and we have -- feel much better about the rest of the year.

但我們超出了我們的完成率，而且我們一直非常保守。因此，從技術上講，增加的產能中有一半是用於今年剩餘時間的。再說一遍，這一切都隱藏在極其強勁的完成率以及我們的波音和空客交付中。我們已經確定了這些，我們已經——對不起，空客和波音的交付退役了，我們已經確定了這些，我們已經——對今年剩下的時間感覺好多了。

So that's really what's going on in the capacity side. The other thing is 80% of our capacity growth in the back half of the year, it's all stage engaged. It's very highly efficient. And with these high load factors and strong demand, we feel good about our position.

這就是容量方面真正發生的事情。另一件事是今年下半年我們80%的產能增長，都是階段性的。效率非常高。憑藉這些高負載率和強勁的需求，我們對自己的地位感到滿意。

Yes, Andrew, it's Ben. I think another factor is when you compare, where our capacity is compared to 2019, we're just getting back to [2018] levels of capacity. And then just to put another point on what Andrew just said, our departures are actually down 1.3%. So we feel like we're in the right place for capacity.

是的，安德魯，是本。我認為另一個因素是，當你將我們的產能與 2019 年進行比較時，我們剛剛回到 [2018] 的產能水平。然後再強調一下安德魯剛才所說的，我們的離職率實際上下降了 1.3%。所以我們覺得我們的產能處於正確的位置。

Got it. And then just my second question, just -- if I were to take the midpoints of your capacity and revenue outlooks for 3Q and the full year, 3Q RASM seems to be the trough this year with 4Q a couple of points better. What is driving your thought process on this? Is it that domestic international share shift or anything else you're seeing in your booking curves?

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，如果我取第三季度和全年產能和收入前景的中點，第三季度 RASM 似乎是今年的低谷，第四季度好幾個點。是什麼推動了您對此的思考過程？是國內國際份額的變化還是您在預訂曲線中看到的其他情況？

Yes. Thanks for that. As we shared in the prepared remarks, there is the deceleration, about half of that is indeed to the core pricing, but there's also increasing capacity and our stage length in a little bit of a shift in holiday. But if you look to the fourth quarter, we're showing it accelerate just a little bit if you just do the math.

是的。感謝那。正如我們在準備好的發言中所分享的那樣，存在減速，其中大約一半確實是核心定價，但在假期中，容量和舞台長度也有所增加。但如果你看看第四季度，如果你計算一下，我們會發現它只是加速了一點點。

And again, we have a lower base in the fourth quarter last year. And we've tried to be conservative. And while we're not giving any pure guidance today on the fourth quarter. There are a couple of things like business travel and the abating of this international versus domestic demand that may actually come to fruition in the fourth quarter.

同樣，我們去年第四季度的基數較低。我們試圖保持保守。雖然我們今天沒有就第四季度給出任何純粹的指導。商務旅行以及國際需求與國內需求的減弱等一些因素可能會在第四季度真正實現。

And our next question comes from Helane Becker from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So Ben, I thought you were really optimistic and positive on both the quarter and the outlook, and yet your stock is down 12%. So obviously, people don't think it's that positive. And I know that sounds kind of obnoxious, but my question really has to do with capacity.

Ben，我認為您對本季度和前景都非常樂觀和積極，但您的股票卻下跌了 12%。顯然，人們並不認為這有那麼積極。我知道這聽起來有點令人討厭，但我的問題確實與容量有關。

It seems that the pushback is too much capacity growth in a domestic market that's not really growing as rapidly with pressure on fares, a. And b, to Andrew's last point, the hope for a shift away from international to more domestic later this year. I'm not sure I would agree with that just because of the pent-up demand that exists for -- continues to exist for Europe and Asia. So just kind of wondering how you're thinking about the disconnect between what you're seeing and saying in the stock price?

似乎阻力在於國內市場的運力增長過多，而由於票價壓力，國內市場的增長速度並沒有那麼快。 b，對於安德魯的最後一點，希望在今年晚些時候從國際轉向更多的國內。我不確定我是否會同意這一點，因為歐洲和亞洲被壓抑的需求仍然存在。所以只是想知道你如何看待你所看到的和所說的股價之間的脫節？

Helane, look, it's a great question. Look, I just want to put things a little in perspective. We had a fantastic Q2 quarter with -- will likely be industry-leading pretax margins. We're still going to have a strong Q3. We're guiding to reiterate our 9% to 12% pretax margin for the fourth quarter. But I think demand, when you look at domestic demand, domestic demand is still strong.

Helane，聽著，這是一個很好的問題。聽著，我只是想客觀地看待事情。我們的第二季度表現非常出色，稅前利潤率可能會達到行業領先水平。我們的第三季度仍然會表現強勁。我們重申第四季度 9% 至 12% 的稅前利潤率。但我認為需求，當你看國內需求時，國內需求仍然強勁。

And as you guys have done your calls with other airlines, you're seeing this massive surge in international travel, similar to what we saw domestically about a year ago. So our view is that's a great thing for the industry to have international come back, and we're putting a lot of our loyalty members on our partners metal, which is a good thing. But we do see strengths still in the domestic market. And we do see this normalizing towards at the end of the year into 2024.

當你們與其他航空公司進行通話時，您會看到國際旅行的大幅增長，與我們大約一年前在國內看到的情況類似。因此，我們認為，對於該行業來說，國際化回歸是一件好事，我們將很多忠誠會員投入到我們的合作夥伴金屬上，這是一件好事。但我們確實看到國內市場仍然具有優勢。我們確實看到這種情況在年底到 2024 年將會正常化。

When it comes to capacity, as you know, airlines just can't switch -- put a switch on in terms of turning on capacity and turning it off. You kind of have to have a plan you have to execute. The question is -- the issue is we're executing extremely well from a completion rate perspective. And again, I am optimistic about our business, it is solid across every, every lever. And we're dealing with just a surge of international demand right now, which we think will normalize towards the end of the year. So that's how I'm looking at it, Helane.

當談到運力時，如您所知，航空公司無法切換——通過打開運力和關閉運力來打開開關。你必須有一個必須執行的計劃。問題是——從完成率的角度來看，我們的執行情況非常好。再說一次，我對我們的業務感到樂觀，它在每一個槓桿上都很穩固。我們目前正在應對國際需求的激增，我們認為這種需求將在年底前恢復正常。這就是我的看法，海蘭。

Okay. That's very helpful. Just on the follow-up question on California. I've noticed that there have been some capacity shifts as people have shifted -- other airlines have shifted some capacity out of California, but you guys have shifted into some markets. Can you just talk about the thought process there?

好的。這非常有幫助。關於加州的後續問題。我注意到，隨著人們的轉移，運力也發生了一些變化——其他航空公司已經將一些運力轉移出加州，但你們已經轉移到了一些市場。您能簡單談談那裡的思考過程嗎？

Helane, I don't know if you're referring to San Francisco, Burbank or anything more general than that. But essentially, we're always looking at our network. We've -- we are leaning into Latin, Mexico, Costa Rica, that good stuff. And we continue to round out and build out our California network, which, as I shared earlier, is still 25% down from 2019 levels.

Helane，我不知道你指的是舊金山、伯班克還是其他更籠統的地方。但本質上，我們一直在關注我們的網絡。我們已經——我們正在傾向於拉丁語、墨西哥、哥斯達黎加，這些好東西。我們繼續完善和建設我們的加州網絡，正如我之前分享的那樣，該網絡仍比 2019 年的水平下降了 25%。

But there's no major shift or changes there. And our recent market entry is a top 20 market out of San Francisco, and that was an area that we felt we needed to be in.

但那裡沒有重大轉變或變化。我們最近進入的市場是舊金山以外的前 20 名市場，這是我們認為需要進入的領域。

And our next question comes from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

On the full year capacity and the reiteration of the CASMex guide. I'm just trying to understand why there wasn't more leverage. Is there some sort of incremental cost bubble near term that you're going to see maybe a productivity offset come into fourth quarter. It seems within the guide, there's a pretty big step down as we exit the year. So just curious on the moving parts there?

關於全年產能和CASMex指南的重申。我只是想了解為什麼沒有更多的槓桿作用。近期是否會出現某種增量成本泡沫，您可能會在第四季度看到生產力抵消。在指南中，當我們結束這一年時，似乎出現了相當大的下降。那麼只是對那裡的活動部件感到好奇嗎？

Conor, it's Shane. No, there's no real call out in terms of the cost category that is off-trend or off expectation in terms of the go forward. I think I mentioned some of it in the script. Number one, we tend -- and I think you guys know this to be pretty aggressive with ourselves on cost and productivity. We are getting closer to our 2019 productivity. It's our goal to ultimately get as close as we can to it. But we're a little bit short of what we had wanted to be at this summer. .

康納，我是謝恩。不，在成本類別方面沒有真正的呼籲，即未來的趨勢或預期。我想我在劇本中提到了其中的一些內容。第一，我們傾向於——我想你們知道這對我們自己在成本和生產力方面相當激進。我們距離 2019 年的生產力越來越近了。我們的目標是最終盡可能接近它。但我們距離今年夏天的目標還有點差距。 。

The good news is that those are all things we can control and that we will continue to work on as we get through the end of the year. We've had some other things just move around the Airbus retirement moving up to several months pushed significantly more of the transition training cost into this year and into Q2 and also into Q3. And like we're carrying a significant amount of surplus pilots on the Airbus. We were really deliberate about trying to retain folks onto that aircraft. So we weren't doing a lot of training of new people into the Airbus. And I think that program was successful. And we've got a lot of pilot too. We just need to get through the school house and over to the Boeing.

好消息是，這些都是我們可以控制的事情，並且我們將在年底繼續努力。我們在空客退役期間還做了一些其他事情，將其推遲了幾個月，將更多的過渡培訓成本推入今年、第二季度和第三季度。就像我們在空客飛機上攜帶了大量剩余飛行員一樣。我們確實是經過深思熟慮才想把人們留住那架飛機。因此，我們並沒有對空客公司的新員工進行大量培訓。我認為該計劃是成功的。我們也有很多飛行員。我們只需穿過校舍前往波音飛機即可。

So I'm feeling good about where we sit. Going forward, I think we need to do a little bit better job on executing aggressive cost targets. But to be clear, sequentially, we're getting better. I think we expect to also get better relative to Q3 and Q4. Year-over-year, we're better in both of those periods. I think we're set up well for next year. We'll lap our step-up in maintenance costs, which we talked about earlier in this year, the 900 ER engine deal. We'll have all of our Airbus transition costs materially in this year and not with us next year.

所以我對我們坐的地方感覺很好。展望未來，我認為我們需要在執行積極的成本目標方面做得更好一些。但需要明確的是，我們正在變得更好。我認為我們預計相對於第三季度和第四季度也會變得更好。與去年同期相比，我們在這兩個時期都做得更好。我認為我們已經為明年做好了準備。我們將在今年早些時候討論過 900 ER 發動機交易中維護成本的增加。我們將在今年承擔所有空客過渡成本，而不是明年。

And we've got a stable operation, and we know that long term, high completion rate, high on-time performance operation, we can leverage into better cost performance. So yes, you guys, I know, we'll continue to pressure us on this. We're going to pressure ourselves and I feel good about how we're going to perform over the next several quarters on costs.

我們擁有穩定的運營，我們知道，長期、高完成率、高準時性能運營，我們可以利用更好的性價比。所以，是的，你們，我知道，我們將繼續在這方面向我們施加壓力。我們會給自己施加壓力，我對未來幾個季度的成本表現感到滿意。

Okay. Maybe as a follow-up pressure push. On the training costs, [head win] can you provide some context to how much that is. As we -- I mean I think that everyone understands that you guys got a pretty good cost plan going into next year. I'm just trying to make sure we have the magnitude of the moving parts, right, as we think about next year? Is it a noticeable amount within your full year guide, I guess, in '23, specifically?

好的。也許作為後續的壓力推動。關於培訓成本，[head win]您能否提供一些背景信息來說明培訓成本是多少。我的意思是，我認為每個人都明白，你們明年有一個非常好的成本計劃。我只是想確保我們有活動部件的規模，對吧，正如我們明年所考慮的那樣？我想，特別是在 23 年，這在你的全年指南中是一個引人注目的數字嗎？

Yes. I mean, just for the quarter in Q2, it was an extra $3 million relative to what we would have anticipated. We're carrying as many as 75 extra captains on the aircraft right now relative to what we would normally need to fly 10 aircraft. So it's not insignificant. We've had to train -- and we'll get the number to you Conor offline. I just don't have it in my head.

是的。我的意思是，僅就第二季度而言，相對於我們的預期，就多了 300 萬美元。相對於通常需要駕駛 10 架飛機的情況，目前我們的飛機上額外配備了多達 75 名機長。所以這並不是微不足道的。我們必須訓練——我們會離線給你康納號碼。我只是腦子裡沒有這個想法。

Multiple hundreds, 300 or 400 pilots this year or more, 500 pilots this year from the Airbus to the Boeing. Those are not training events that we would normally have in the system. And those are training events that not only provide cost drag, but growth drag as well. So it should be a very significant change next year once we get through this.

今年將有數百名、300 名或 400 名或更多飛行員，從空客到波音，今年將有 500 名飛行員。這些不是我們通常在系統中進行的培訓活動。這些培訓活動不僅會拖累成本，還會拖累增長。因此，一旦我們度過了這個難關，明年這應該是一個非常重大的變化。

And our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

I guess, Ben, I just want to ask about volatility because, obviously, the stock is reacting today, and I know this is day-to-day. But you guys did look back on the first quarter and say, "Hey, look, off-peak, we wanted to manage something different and going forward, we will." But it looks like you're adding capacity in the back half and just not getting revenue for it. So is this just the case maybe you overearned in 2Q and you're kind of normalizing your earnings base in the back half of the year? Or what more can you talk to this?

我想，本，我只是想問一下波動性，因為顯然，股票今天正在做出反應，而且我知道這是日常的。但你們確實回顧了第一季度並說，“嘿，看，非高峰期，我們想要管理一些不同的東西，並且展望未來，我們會的。”但看起來你在後半段增加了產能，但卻沒有從中獲得收入。那麼，情況是否就是這樣，也許您在第二季度超額盈利，並且您在下半年使您的收入基礎正常化？或者你還能談論什麼？

Brandon, it's Shane. Maybe I'll start. I think it's fair to say, look, Q2 was very strong. I think every airline has beat their midpoint of their guidance. I think we did as well. We're excited that we were, I think, going to be at the top of the industry in terms of margins. So it is a really high base that we're comparing ourselves now going forward. .

布蘭登，我是謝恩。也許我會開始。我認為可以公平地說，看，第二季度非常強勁。我認為每家航空公司都超過了指導的中點。我想我們也是這麼做的。我認為，就利潤率而言，我們將處於行業領先地位，對此我們感到很興奮。因此，我們現在正在比較自己的基礎，這是一個非常高的基礎。 。

I think one thing we haven't mentioned yet, but we should is fares, while they're off of their unsustainable peaks of last year, they're still very high relative to 2019, and we're still filling planes up at those fare levels. So I think, yes, Q2 could prove to be a high watermark for the industry. But I don't -- I think that our business is healthy and strong, and we have a good setup as we move forward, both on the cost side and a lot of opportunity on the revenue front as we continue to see this region recover and business travel recover with it.

我認為我們還沒有提到但我們應該提到的一件事是票價，雖然它們已經擺脫了去年不可持續的峰值，但相對於 2019 年來說仍然非常高，而且我們仍在以這些價格為飛機加油票價水平。所以我認為，是的，第二季度可能會成為該行業的一個高水位線。但我不這麼認為——我認為我們的業務健康而強勁，隨著我們的前進，我們擁有良好的設置，無論是在成本方面，還是在收入方面都有很多機會，因為我們繼續看到該地區的複蘇商務旅行也隨之恢復。

Appreciate that, Shane. And then Andrew, you did talk to half of the impacts from the sequential deterioration RASM being pricing. But I think you also said like another 1/3 from industry capacity. Could you just expand upon that a little bit?

很欣賞這一點，謝恩。然後安德魯，你確實談到了 RASM 連續惡化的一半影響是定價。但我想你也說過另外 1/3 來自行業產能。您能稍微擴展一下嗎？

Yes, Brandon, basically characterized the [6 points, half] of it being just core pricing coming down off the peaks. And then 3 elements are remaining, which were essentially our own and industry capacity growth. Our stage length growth, which is up quite significantly. And then also, there was a more of a minor shift in the 4th of July, but those made up the balance of the difference.

是的，布蘭登，基本上將其[6分，一半]描述為核心定價從峰值下降。然後還剩下3個要素，本質上是我們自己和行業產能的增長。我們的舞台長度增長相當顯著。此外，7 月 4 日發生了更多細微的變化，但這些彌補了差異的平衡。

Brandon, this is Shane. I'll just unpack that for you because I think I know what you might be asking. We have a normal capacity growth to RASM reduction model that we sort of assume. It's pretty consistent over the years. What we're saying is the pricing reductions is slightly higher than that model would suggest. And that's what Andrew's attributing to coming off the peak pricing impact.

布蘭登，這是謝恩。我會為您解開這個問題，因為我想我知道您可能會問什麼。我們假設有一個正常的容量增長到 RASM 減少模型。多年來它非常一致。我們所說的是降價幅度略高於該模型的建議值。這就是安德魯認為擺脫高峰定價影響的原因。

And our next question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just a little bit, again, going back to the cost side. I was a little curious on what you're seeing from Boeing. And your confidence in being able to kind of exiting this year and then going into next year, being able to kind of deliver on that capacity. And if you look at -- if you could change just at a high level, again, what are the big chunks of kind of headwinds and tailwinds next year on the cost side?

再次回到成本方面。我對你從波音公司看到的情況有點好奇。你有信心能夠在今年退出，然後進入明年，能夠兌現這種能力。如果你再看一下，如果你能在高水平上進行改變，那麼明年在成本方面的主要逆風和順風是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Savi. Boeing has been doing a phenomenal job for us this year. In fact, if we were to blame them for anything, it would be that they've given us all their planes on time. And so we've added capacity to the schedule a little bit, which people are questioning today, but they've really been good delivering on schedule. I don't think we've had one aircraft come after it was scheduled to be in service. So they've continued to do a really good job.

是的。謝謝，薩維。波音公司今年為我們做了出色的工作。事實上，如果我們要責怪他們的話，那就是他們按時向我們提供了所有飛機。因此，我們在計劃中增加了一些產能，人們今天對此表示質疑，但他們確實很好地按計劃交付了。我認為我們沒有一架飛機在預定服役後才交付使用。所以他們繼續做得很好。

We have a bunch of deliveries in December. December is always a month where things can slide around a week or 2. So there might be 1 or 2 units that end up in January of next year, but we're not concerned about that at all. I think they recovered very well from both the quality escape and the spirit sort of period that they went through recently.

12 月份我們有大量交貨。 12 月份的情況總是會下滑一周或兩週左右。因此可能會有 1 或 2 個單位在明年 1 月結束，但我們根本不擔心這一點。我認為他們從最近經歷的質量逃避和精神時期恢復得很好。

So we're feeling good about the fleet plan going into next year. I think we're anxious for them to get the Dash or the MAX 10 certified. Whenever that happens, we don't know when it will, but we can't wait to fly that airplane and take a lot of those. But Boeing has been just really, really good this year in terms of getting back on plan for deliveries.

因此，我們對明年的機隊計劃感覺良好。我認為我們迫切希望他們獲得 Dash 或 MAX 10 認證。每當這種情況發生時，我們不知道什麼時候會發生，但我們迫不及待地想駕駛那架飛機並乘坐很多這樣的飛機。但波音今年在恢復計劃交付方面表現得非常非常好。

And just on the major buckets there...

就在主要的水桶上......

I liked the first question. I'd forgot about the second one. Look, I think on the sort of tailwind side, I mentioned a couple of these, we have $100 million of cost step-up on the 900 ER engine deal this year, that will be fully lapped. Look, the vast majority of contract costs, we are currently lapping.

我喜歡第一個問題。我都忘了第二個了聽著，我認為在順風方面，我提到了其中的一些，今年我們在 900 ER 發動機交易上增加了 1 億美元的成本，這將被完全完成。看，絕大多數的合同成本，我們目前都在研磨。

We do have deals that we need to get done with our flight attendants and our mechanics which we're anxious to do and we're actively obviously working on those. I would expect and I hope that some of those costs are captured this year, but there will be some additional lapping to do of those deals next year. I'm not going to talk about sort of amounts.

我們確實需要與我們的空乘人員和機械師完成一些我們渴望完成的交易，而且我們顯然正在積極地致力於這些工作。我預計並希望今年能消除其中一些成本，但明年這些交易還需要進行一些額外的處理。我不會談論金額。

And then the Airbus transition costs will be fully behind us, which will be another really good positive tailwind. And then like I said, it's with a -- our job now is to take and translate a really strong operation that is performing well and making sure that we're doing that at the most efficient cost structure possible. So those are lots of little opportunities throughout the company, but we're going to be really focused on leaning out the cost structure next year because of our operational excellence.

然後空客的過渡成本將完全拋在我們身後，這將是另一個非常好的積極推動力。然後就像我說的，我們現在的工作是採取並轉化一個運行良好的真正強大的操作，並確保我們以盡可能最有效的成本結構來做到這一點。因此，整個公司有很多小機會，但由於我們的卓越運營，明年我們將真正專注於精簡成本結構。

Helpful. And can I clarify just quickly on those kind of fair softness. When did you start to see that? I think the other kind of question that investors are going to have is, obviously, is this the start of further declines? Or is there something a new level that you've seen stabilize? Just a little bit more on that when you saw that fair and then what you're seeing today?

有幫助。我可以快速澄清一下這種公平的柔軟性嗎？你什麼時候開始看到這一點的？我認為投資者顯然會問的另一個問題是，這是否是進一步下跌的開始？或者有什麼新的水平你已經看到穩定了嗎？當您看到那個展會時以及您今天所看到的情況時，請再多介紹一點嗎？

Savi, as you know, our quarters build up the quarters beforehand. But I think as we were coming into the summer a little while ago, we started to see in the third quarter a couple of months ago, just starting to see that they might have been peaked and coming down a little bit off there.

薩維，如你所知，我們的宿舍是事先搭建好的。但我認為，隨著我們不久前進入夏季，我們在幾個月前開始看到第三季度，剛剛開始看到它們可能已經達到頂峰，然後略有下降。

Again, I don't know if I'd say use the term softness. I do think it's that finding that fine balance between the demand and supply. But again, as -- the streets been reporting as well over the last 6 to 8 weeks, this been coming off of the high and we saw that a couple of months ago.

再說一遍，我不知道是否應該使用“柔軟”這個詞。我確實認為這是在需求和供給之間找到良好的平衡。但同樣，在過去的 6 到 8 週內，街頭也一直在報導，這一情況已經從高點回落，我們幾個月前就看到了這一點。

And Savi, remember, demand is still very strong on the domestic side. Our load factors were some of the highest we've seen. And it's really due to the surge in international. And I think if you really look at it, international is going to be strong from maybe June through September, October. But as kids get back to school, and things start to normalize, like I do think this thing is going to find its equilibrium. So I just wanted to give just a little more context on how we're seeing it.

薩維，請記住，國內需求仍然非常強勁。我們的負載率是我們所見過的最高的。這確實是由於國際人口的激增所致。我認為，如果你認真觀察的話，國際市場可能會在六月到九月、十月期間表現強勁。但隨著孩子們回到學校，事情開始正常化，我確實認為這件事會找到平衡。所以我只是想提供更多關於我們如何看待它的背景信息。

And our next question comes from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

I know we spoke a little bit about this last quarter, and you touched on the prepared remarks chain, but unit costs coming in at the midpoint on higher than planned capacity is not traditional Alaska performance, I guess. Do you expect to be able to squeeze some of those labor costs tied to shoring up operations as we exit the year? Or is that really more of a 2024 opportunity?

我知道我們在上個季度對此進行了一些討論，您也談到了準備好的評論鏈，但我猜，單位成本在高於計劃容量的中點並不是傳統的阿拉斯加表現。當我們今年結束時，您是否期望能夠壓縮一些與支持運營相關的勞動力成本？或者這真的更像是 2024 年的機會嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Catie. It's probably more of a 2024, you sort of need the volumes to be there. And even though Q4 capacity is growing year-over-year, it's still down sequentially from Q2 and Q3. Not that we won't be focused on it. But the other thing, we have to get through this full Airbus transition and all of the pilot training.

是的。謝謝，凱蒂。可能更像是 2024 年，你需要有足夠的數量。儘管第四季度產能同比增長，但仍比第二季度和第三季度有所下降。並不是說我們不會關注它。但另一件事，我們必須完成空客的全面過渡和所有飛行員培訓。

One other potential tailwind for us next year, I didn't speak too much about, but we will be bringing on a preferential bidding system with our pilots sort of early-ish in the year, maybe April, it will take us a few months to get our feet under ourselves there, but that should also be marginally helpful on the -- on just the cost efficiency and productivity front.

明年對我們來說另一個潛在的推動因素，我沒有說太多，但我們將在今年早些時候，也許四月，為我們的飛行員引入優惠招標系統，這將需要我們幾個月的時間在那里站穩腳跟，但這在成本效率和生產力方面也應該有一點幫助。

Okay. That's great. And then, Andrew, you gave some stats on loyalty members flying on partners, uptick in international travelers going to your clubs. How does all that -- how does Alaska benefit from that? Does that hit your P&L? How do we think about that? I mean, obviously, you guys are primarily domestic carrier. But just wondering if there's any piece of the business that benefits from this international shift?

好的。那太棒了。然後，安德魯，您提供了一些關於忠誠會員乘坐合作夥伴航班的統計數據，以及前往您俱樂部的國際旅客數量增加的情況。阿拉斯加如何從中受益？這會影響您的損益嗎？我們對此有何看法？我的意思是，顯然，你們主要是國內航空公司。但只是想知道是否有任何業務可以從這種國際轉變中受益？

Yes. Thanks, Catie. Actually, it's extremely exciting for us. It shows that we have our members that our global loyalty program really works. They're using the benefits and more importantly, as we move more and more partners to sell directly on alaskaair.com. It just really opens up the utility that we can provide for our members that you really can fly globally with Alaska Airlines. So it's actually proving out the thesis, and I'm very excited as we move through the rest of the year.

是的。謝謝，凱蒂。事實上，這對我們來說非常令人興奮。這向我們的會員表明我們的全球忠誠度計劃確實有效。他們正在利用這些好處，更重要的是，隨著我們讓越來越多的合作夥伴直接在 alaskaair.com 上銷售。它確實打開了我們可以為會員提供的實用程序，您可以真正乘坐阿拉斯加航空飛往全球各地。所以它實際上證明了這個論點，當我們度過今年剩下的時間時，我感到非常興奮。

And our next question comes from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Shane, I want to get back to your point on the flight attendants mechanics deals yet to be done. Have you considered accruing for those agreements? And the reason I ask is, there was a time where actually all the airlines used to accrue for labor deals. And then I think we got to the point where it was just Southwest. And now we're seeing United accrue for their pilot deals. What's your thinking about that the philosophy? Does that make sense? And why not start it now? And then I have one more.

肖恩，我想回到你關於尚未完成的空乘機械師交易的觀點。您是否考慮過為這些協議累積費用？我問的原因是，曾經有一段時間，實際上所有航空公司都通過勞務交易來累積費用。然後我想我們已經到了西南航空的地步了。現在我們看到曼聯通過試點交易獲得了收益。您對此哲學有何看法？那有意義嗎？為什麼不現在就開始呢？然後我還有一個。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. We haven't considered accruing -- we're cognizant that some others have done that. I think the levels that those contracts represented that kind of made sense, but it's never -- since I've been here, been something that we've done. And I think it really just goes to the uncertainty around timing and we like to keep those discussions between ourselves and the union leaders at the property and not really be talking about what the economic impacts could be, which -- other companies have been a little bit more willing to talk about that in the open. We think it's a better approach to keep all that stuff between the parties and then once we're done, let folks know what we did.

是的。謝謝，邁克。我們沒有考慮過累積——我們知道其他一些人已經這樣做了。我認為這些合同所代表的水平是有道理的，但自從我來到這里以來，我們從來沒有做過這樣的事情。我認為這實際上只是時間上的不確定性，我們希望在我們自己和酒店的工會領導人之間進行這些討論，而不是真正談論可能產生的經濟影響，其他公司已經有點了更願意公開談論這個問題。我們認為將所有這些內容保留在各方之間是一個更好的方法，然後一旦我們完成，讓人們知道我們做了什麼。

Okay. Makes sense. And then just my second question to Andrew, and I realize this is more of a later this year, early next year, but you do have some pretty meaningful route changes, seasonal changes. And I know this goes back to a few quarters ago, maybe a quarter or 2 ago where you sort of came out and said we have to run a better airline or from a margin perspective in the winter in our -- what is historically our seasonally weakest time frame. .

好的。說得通。然後是我向安德魯提出的第二個問題，我意識到這更多是在今年晚些時候、明年初，但確實有一些非常有意義的路線變化、季節性變化。我知道這可以追溯到幾個季度前，也許是一個季度或兩個季度前，您出來說我們必須運營一家更好的航空公司，或者從我們的冬季利潤率角度來看——歷史上我們的季節性最弱的時間框架。 。

As I think about later this year, early next year, it does seem like a good portion of your ASMs will be new routes. And it feels like it's been some time, maybe since probably the Virgin acquisitions where you will have that much of your capacity in new markets. And I don't know, correct me if I'm wrong, anything that you could sort of shout out, since it's still early on things that you're sort of planning to do and maybe would address my question about how much of it is new flying versus historical. I feel like there's a few questions in there, so I'll drop it.

正如我在今年晚些時候、明年初所想到的，你們的 ASM 中的很大一部分似乎將是新航線。感覺好像已經有一段時間了，也許自從維珍收購以來，你將在新市場擁有這麼多的能力。我不知道，如果我錯了，請糾正我，任何你可以大聲喊出來的事情，因為你計劃做的事情還處於早期階段，也許會解決我關於其中多少的問題是新飛行與歷史飛行。我覺得里面有幾個問題，所以我就放棄了。

Yes, don't worry. Mike, well, I'm glad you asked because it's actually a really important question and point. Our schedules will start to reflect and are being reflected, but we've moved about 9 points of our capacity around in the first quarter. We've also got extremely laser-focused on the makeup of the first quarter, which is really 3 distinct seasons for us coming off of the Christmas and the holidays. Then a very difficult period and then, of course, you move into March in the spring.

是的，不用擔心。邁克，嗯，我很高興你問這個問題，因為這實際上是一個非常重要的問題和觀點。我們的日程安排將開始反映出來，並且正在得到反映，但我們在第一季度已經將產能轉移了大約 9 個百分點。我們還非常關注第一季度的妝容，對於我們來說，聖誕節和假期之後，這實際上是三個不同的季節。然後是一個非常困難的時期，然後，當然，你進入了春天的三月。

You've seen a number of new markets from us. Those are obviously reallocations. You see us leaning hard into Latin. We're trying some things like Mexico from Las Vegas is unserved (inaudible) and all of those things. But honestly, the bigger impact on our capacity is just reallocating across our network, and that's sort of the 9 points of which some of these new markets are part of, but we're getting more disciplined, how much we're flying to New York City during the depths of winter, those types of things.

您已經從我們這裡看到了許多新市場。這些顯然是重新分配。你看到我們正在努力學習拉丁語。我們正在嘗試一些事情，比如從拉斯維加斯飛往墨西哥的航班沒有服務（聽不清）以及所有這些事情。但老實說，對我們運力的更大影響只是在我們的網絡中重新分配，這就是其中一些新市場的一部分，但我們正在變得更加自律，我們飛往新的航班有多少隆冬時節的約克市，就是這樣的事情。

And our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just firstly, anything in the 3Q comp from last year, you could call out, for example, was there any travel credit breakage above trend that you could quantify?

首先，您可以指出去年第三季度比較中的任何內容，例如，是否存在高於趨勢的旅行信用破損，您可以量化？

Duane, it's Shane. I don't think there's anything sort of materially worth calling out on the 3Q comp basis, certainly not on the breakage stuff. We -- I think we had already gotten through most of that prior.

杜安，我是謝恩。我認為在第三季度的比較基礎上沒有什麼實質性值得強調的地方，尤其是在破損方面。我想我們之前已經完成了大部分工作。

Yes. The only thing in the third quarter last year, obviously, coming off the back of some operational challenges in the pilot pipeline, we had some closer in pull downs that impacted summer and specifically California in a large way, but other than that.

是的。顯然，去年第三季度唯一的一件事是，在試點管道中遇到一些運營挑戰之後，我們在很大程度上影響了夏季，特別是加利福尼亞州，但除此之外，我們已經接近了一些停工。

And you mentioned some holiday shifts. Could you just elaborate on that?

你提到了一些假期輪班。您能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes, that's just the [money], the 4th of July fell on a Friday. And so we think -- which was June this year versus July last year. So there's a little bit of movement into the month of June. I think just interestingly, as we noted, 2 years running now, the unit revenue in June is our highest of the year, and that seems to be continuing.

是的，這就是[錢]，7 月 4 日是星期五。所以我們認為——今年六月與去年七月相比。因此，進入六月份會有一些變化。我認為有趣的是，正如我們所指出的，連續兩年，六月份的單位收入是我們今年最高的，而且這種情況似乎還在持續。

Yes. And then just I think another comment you made, which was interesting on -- in the quarter -- for the quarter bookings. Could you put a finer point on that as it relates to the booking curve? Are these within a week, within 30 days? And does -- I know you're not baking that trend continuing, but does that imply that you now enter a quarter with lower visibility than you historically had?

是的。然後我認為您提出的另一條評論很有趣 - 在本季度 - 對於季度預訂。您能否更詳細地解釋一下與預訂曲線相關的問題？這些是一周內還是30天內？我知道您不會繼續推動這種趨勢，但這是否意味著您現在進入的季度可見度低於歷史水平？

Yes. I think -- I mean, kudos to the revenue management team. I think when you look at what you're referring to is the amount of bookings we take in the month -- to fly in the month. When you look at ourself too soon as last year, we've had really good improvements this year on Hawaii, Mid-Con, Inter California, even the TransCon Southeast.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，對收入管理團隊表示敬意。我想，當你看一下你所指的是我們當月的預訂量——當月的航班。當你過早地審視我們自己時，你會發現今年我們在夏威夷、中部地區、加州際，甚至跨東南地區都取得了很大的進步。

And essentially, what we're seeing is we have availability and the demand is there, and we're filling the airplanes, and you see that both in the higher load factor. But interestingly, even with business demand down, especially for June, we saw more close-in within 2019.

從本質上講，我們看到的是我們有可用的飛機，並且有需求，我們正在給飛機裝貨，你會看到這兩者都在較高的負載率中。但有趣的是，即使業務需求下降，尤其是 6 月份，我們還是在 2019 年看到了更多的接近。

Sorry, you're not baking that into your guidance, but have you seen any change in trend as it relates to this close-in showing up?

抱歉，您沒有將其納入您的指導中，但是您是否看到與這種近距離出現相關的趨勢發生任何變化？

I will just -- I can sit here that day on the 25th of July and tell you that I'm continuing to see that close-in strength this month.

我只是 - 7 月 25 日那天我可以坐在這裡告訴你們，本月我將繼續看到這種接近的力量。

And our next question comes from Stephen Trent from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的史蒂芬·特倫特。

Just one, and I know it does not directly pertain to you. But considering that your partner, American Airlines, is going to do the unwind of the Northeast alliance? Did that in any way kind of lead you guys to pivot on your eastbound strategy?

只有一個，我知道它與你沒有直接關係。但考慮到你的合作夥伴美國航空將解除東北聯盟？這是否以某種方式引導你們轉向東行戰略？

Stephen, it's Nat Pieper. A couple of things just to distinguish our partnership with American a, we're pleased with it; and b, it reviewed and approved by the DOT in 2020. And the good thing about that partnership is it's very much a traditional airline alliance. It links -- we link our complementary networks with Codeshare. We offer reciprocal loyalty benefits that have really resonated with guests. So we see plentiful opportunities with American in continuing to link our networks in places of weakness for each of us and offer more utility for our joint customers going forward.

斯蒂芬，我是納特·皮珀。有幾件事只是為了區分我們與美國航空的合作夥伴關係，我們對此感到滿意； b，它於 2020 年得到了交通部的審查和批准。這種合作夥伴關係的好處是它在很大程度上是一個傳統的航空公司聯盟。它鏈接起來——我們將我們的互補網絡與代碼共享鏈接起來。我們提供的互惠忠誠度福利確實引起了客人的共鳴。因此，我們看到了與美國航空的大量機會，可以繼續將我們的網絡連接到我們每個人的弱點，並為我們的共同客戶提供更多的實用性。

Okay. That's super helpful. I appreciate the color. And just one very quick follow-up, which I know is also not directly related to you guys, but -- you mentioned some potential perking up of the tech industry travel. Do you have any sort of specific signposts there? Like I think I had heard something about Microsoft turning on corporate travel again or any sort of return to office initiatives you're hearing from your tech partners, or customers rather?

好的。這非常有幫助。我很欣賞它的顏色。這是一個非常快速的後續行動，我知道這也與你們沒有直接關係，但是——您提到了科技行業旅行的一些潛在活力。那裡有什麼具體的路標嗎？就像我想我聽說過有關微軟再次開啟商務旅行的消息，或者您從技術合作夥伴或客戶那裡聽到的任何形式的重返辦公室舉措？

Stephen, we did make the comment that we might break through the 75% ceiling as we move forward. Just a couple of interesting data points. But 10 of our top 20 corporate accounts are actually recovered revenues and over 2019 levels right now. But we are seeing high variability within those accounts. We are still seeing some high-tech companies very low, not recovered, but we're also seeing some high-tech covered companies that actually are fully recovered.

斯蒂芬，我們確實說過，隨著我們的前進，我們可能會突破 75% 的上限。只是幾個有趣的數據點。但我們排名前 20 的企業客戶中有 10 個實際上已經恢復了收入，並且目前已經超過了 2019 年的水平。但我們發現這些賬戶存在很大差異。我們仍然看到一些高科技公司的股價非常低，沒有恢復，但我們也看到一些高科技公司實際上已經完全恢復。

So I think what I would say to you is that we're starting to see authoring. It's not a all the techs are down now. We're seeing some really start to perk up. And I think this why gives us a little bit of hope that there might be some green shoots here as we move through the rest of the year.

所以我想我要對你們說的是我們開始看到創作。現在並不是所有的技術都癱瘓了。我們看到一些人真的開始振作起來。我認為這給了我們一點希望，在我們度過今年剩餘時間的過程中，這裡可能會出現一些新芽。

And our next question comes from Dan McKenzie from Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

I guess a couple of questions here. Andrew, I'm wondering if there's been a change in the composition of revenue by advanced purchase bucket. So more discounting further out, firmer pricing closer in and, at least, in kind of what you referenced to your close-in strength today. And I'm just wondering if the current forecast for the third quarter is predicated on strong close-in demand throughout the quarter.

我想這裡有幾個問題。安德魯，我想知道提前購買的收入構成是否發生了變化。因此，進一步的折扣更大，更近的價格更堅挺，至少，就像你今天提到的接近的實力一樣。我只是想知道當前對第三季度的預測是否基於整個季度強勁的近期需求。

Yes. Thanks, Dan. You're spot on, like the structured fares are what they are. But what we are seeing in the sale fairs, they're sort of a little down than they were this time last year as in lower. But the close-in 0 to 13-day fares are actually up than they were last year. So overall, you're seeing that softness on the sale fair side. And we not baked into our forecast continued close-in booking strength.

是的。謝謝，丹。你說得對，就像結構化票價就是這樣。但我們在銷售展會上看到的情況比去年這個時候有所下降。但近期 0 至 13 天的票價實際上比去年有所上漲。總體而言，您會看到拍賣會上的疲軟狀態。我們並沒有考慮到我們的預測持續接近的預訂強度。

Yes. Perfect. Okay. And then going back to the commentary on business travel potentially coming back later this year and next. I know it's not in the outlook for this year. But are there conversations with corporate travel managers to lead you believe it's -- it could come back later this year? Or is it really just a view that California weakness has to reverse at some point?

是的。完美的。好的。然後回到有關商務旅行的評論可能會在今年晚些時候和明年回歸。我知道這不在今年的展望中。但與企業差旅經理的對話是否讓您相信它可能會在今年晚些時候捲土重來？或者這真的只是加州的疲軟必須在某個時候扭轉的觀點？

Yes. A lot of people say they're going to do things and then what they actually do may be different. I think what we're just looking at is across our corporates, who's doing what. And I do think there is authoring from what I see and an upward momentum in a number of these.

是的。很多人說他們要做某事，但他們實際做的可能會有所不同。我認為我們所關注的是整個公司，誰在做什麼。我確實認為，從我所看到的情況來看，其中有一些是有創作性的，並且有上升的勢頭。

And so again, while I -- we need to make sure, obviously, and looking at the business fares and they're holding up quite well. It just depends on as they move through, and I've always had the philosophy that a lot of this is driven by budgeting by our good friends, the CFOs in these organizations. And you really are not going to see a material change in rebudgeting until 2024. So that's just what I see.

再說一遍，我們顯然需要確保，看看商務票價，它們保持得很好。這僅取決於他們的進展情況，我一直有這樣的理念：這很大程度上是由我們的好朋友、這些組織中的首席財務官制定的預算推動的。直到 2024 年，你真的不會看到重新預算發生重大變化。這就是我所看到的。

And Dan, it's Ben. You got to remember, on the West Coast, we have some of the biggest companies in the world headquartered here on the West Coast, both in Seattle and in the Bay Area. So it is a more difficult time for them, but they're going to come out of this.

丹，是本。您必須記住，在西海岸，我們擁有一些世界上最大的公司，總部設在西海岸，包括西雅圖和灣區。因此，這對他們來說是一個更加困難的時期，但他們將會走出困境。

Again, we're optimistic they'll come out of it towards the latter part of the year and into next year. And it is dry powder for us, there's going to be tailwinds for us. And these here the biggest companies world, and there should be a lot of upside.

我們再次樂觀地認為他們將在今年下半年和明年走出困境。這對我們來說是乾粉，對我們來說將會是順風。這些都是世界上最大的公司，應該有很多上升空間。

And our next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna Group 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

So with the capacity raise, it's entirely on completion rate, but could you remind us to think about the mix of frequency gauge and stage that you outlined last year, how this -- how 2023 is shaping up?

因此，隨著容量的增加，這完全取決於完成率，但您能否提醒我們考慮一下您去年概述的頻率指標和階段的組合，這 - 2023 年將如何形成？

And then also, you spoke about in your prepared remarks on prioritizing reliability. Normally, I would think if you're trying to prioritize that or build and buffer to your capacity that the guide would have come lower. So I just want to better understand here the moving pieces here or the composition of capacity as we think about the back half of the year.

然後，您在準備好的發言中談到了優先考慮可靠性。通常情況下，我認為如果你試圖優先考慮這一點或建立並緩沖你的能力，那麼指南會降低。因此，我只是想更好地了解這裡的變化因素或我們在考慮今年下半年時的產能構成。

Chris, it's Shane. We set a 70% of the -- 90% of the sorry, 70% of the growth, I think, was stage engaged, like [2 to 3 quarters]. And I think that's what you saw in the second quarter. I think that was reflected in Andrew's commentary. And that will start to abate as we get towards the end of the year and lap some of that impact when we started aggressively getting out of the Airbus line. .

克里斯，這是謝恩。我們設定了 70% 的——抱歉，90% 的增長，我認為，70% 的增長是舞台參與，比如 [2 到 3 個季度]。我認為這就是你在第二季度看到的情況。我認為安德魯的評論反映了這一點。當我們接近年底時，這種影響將開始減弱，當我們開始積極退出空客生產線時，這種影響將受到一些影響。 。

Good question on reliability being a priority? How do you do that and then guide up, not down. What I can tell you is with the planes and the people that we had for this year, we could have flown even more than we are now telling you we're going to fly. And so -- we put a significant amount of buffer into this year. I think I talked about it last quarter that we were outperforming many of those assumptions, both on the delivery side from Boeing, our own completion rate.

關於可靠性優先的好問題？你如何做到這一點，然後向上引導，而不是向下引導。我可以告訴你的是，憑藉我們今年擁有的飛機和人員，我們本可以飛得比現在告訴你我們要飛的還要多。因此，我們今年投入了大量緩衝。我想我上個季度談到過，我們的表現超出了許多假設，無論是在波音的交付方面還是我們自己的完成率方面。

And so -- we're just sort of squaring up now with the fact that we've been overperforming on a lot of those assumptions. But -- we thought it was prudent this year given the last couple of years to assume a much lower completion rate than normal. And we've outperformed it, which is a really good story, and now we just need to kind of normalize the company around the completion rate we are achieving today.

所以，我們現在只是在接受這樣一個事實：我們在很多假設上都表現出色。但是，考慮到過去幾年的情況，我們認為今年的完成率比正常情況低得多，這是謹慎的做法。我們已經超越了它，這是一個非常好的故事，現在我們只需要圍繞我們今天實現的完成率使公司正常化。

Okay. And then on 2024, I realize it's still early. It sounds like you're suggesting that we could see unit costs down on a kind of a 6% or mid-single-digit is type growth here. But -- and you do have the benefit of gauge here, of course, there is this slight miss with respect to forecasting.

好的。然後到了 2024 年，我意識到現在還為時過早。聽起來您似乎在建議我們可以看到單位成本下降 6% 或中等個位數的增長率。但是——當然，這裡確實有測量的好處，但在預測方面存在輕微的偏差。

But if we think about RASM for next year and the ability to grow in excess of that, and sort of the moving pieces here as we think about the debate, this pool of international travelers that are being -- for the pool of travelers here that are being consumed by international, certainly a debate on the duration of how long that lasts?

但是，如果我們考慮明年的 RASM 以及超過這一增長的能力，以及當我們考慮辯論時這裡的一些令人感動的事情，這批國際旅客正在 - 對於這裡的旅客來說正在被國際消費，當然是關於持續多久的爭論？

And there is concern out there that the domestic capacity is going to continue too. So -- is it fair to think that kind of holding load factors here constant for this year that you can grow your RASM in excess of CASM next year?

人們擔心國內產能也將繼續下去。那麼，如果今年保持負載因子不變，明年您的 RASM 就會超過 CASM，這樣的想法公平嗎？

Chris, I think we are pretty -- we have a pretty standard practice not to speak about next year on these types of calls. Although I totally understand and appreciate the question. Look, it's a little too far forward for us to predict what the economic environment is going to be, what everybody's capacity is going to be.

克里斯，我認為我們很好——我們有一個非常標準的做法，不會在明年的此類電話會議上談論此事。儘管我完全理解並理解這個問題。聽著，對於我們來說，預測經濟環境會是什麼樣子、每個人的能力會是什麼樣子，有點太遙遠了。

I think generally, across the industry, you've seen capacity guides come in from where they were originally sort of talking about. So I think there's a lot of open questions on what people are going to fly next year. I would point to the fact that Andrew just spoke about a really -- a focus on Q1 and sort of [reconcentrating] the network, so we've got opportunity to do better in Q1.

我認為一般來說，在整個行業中，您已經看到容量指南來自他們最初談論的地方。因此，我認為關於人們明年將乘坐哪些航班還有很多懸而未決的問題。我想指出這樣一個事實，安德魯剛剛談到了對第一季度的關注和[重新集中]網絡，因此我們有機會在第一季度做得更好。

And then we've got these other tailwinds with this region of the country, improving with international demand normalizing at some point. And yes, it could be a little longer than we're thinking, but it may not be in business travel recovering plus a lot more that we can push on the commercial initiatives. So there are some other things other than just peer growth that should drive the top line of the company next year. And obviously, we're going to be talking to you guys a lot more about that in the next couple of calls.

然後，隨著國際需求在某個時候的正常化，我們在該國這個地區獲得了其他有利因素。是的，這可能比我們想像的要長一點，但商務旅行可能不會恢復，而且我們可以推動更多的商業計劃。因此，除了同行增長之外，還有其他一些因素可以推動公司明年的營收增長。顯然，我們將在接下來的幾次電話會議中與你們更多地討論這一問題。

All right, everybody. So our time is up. So thank you so much for dialing in, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

好吧，大家。所以我們的時間到了。非常感謝您撥通電話，我們將在下個季度與您聯繫。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。