阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. (Operator Instructions).

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加阿拉斯加航空集團 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音中，將來可以在 alaskaair.com 上播放。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Emily Halverson. .

我現在想將電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團的財務副總裁 Emily Halverson。 .

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release, which is available at investor.alaskaair.com. .

謝謝接線員，早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告，可在investor.alaskaair.com 上獲取。 .

On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call. This morning, Air Group reported third quarter GAAP net income of $40 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $325 million. As a reminder, our comments today will include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results.

在今天的通話中，您將聽到 Ben、Andrew 和 Shane 的最新消息。在電話的問答部分，我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在線回答您的問題。今天上午，Air Group 報告第三季度 GAAP 淨收入為 4000 萬美元。不包括特殊項目和按市值計價的燃料對沖調整，Air Group 報告調整後的淨收入為 3.25 億美元。提醒一下，我們今天的評論將包括關於未來業績的前瞻性陳述，這可能與我們的實際結果存在重大差異。

Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found in our SEC filings. We'll also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we have provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release.

有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的信息可以在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的收益和單位成本，不包括燃料。和往常一樣，我們在今天的收益發布中提供了最直接可比的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬。

Over to you, Ben.

交給你了，本。

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our third quarter results, closing out the busiest travel period since the pandemic began. Demand was resilient, planes were full, our people were busy and our results were strong. Our 15.6% pretax margin is likely to top the industry and came within 2 points of our 2019 margin despite the impact and the exceptionally high fuel prices and multiple new labor contracts.

謝謝，艾米麗，大家早上好。今天，我們發布了第三季度業績，結束了自大流行開始以來最繁忙的旅行期。需求有彈性，飛機滿員，我們的員工很忙，我們的業績很好。我們 15.6% 的稅前利潤率很可能在行業中名列前茅，儘管受到影響以及燃油價格異常高昂和多份新的勞動合同，但與 2019 年的利潤率相差不到 2 個百分點。

We ran the best operation this summer, leading the industry with the #1 DOT on-time performance from June through September. Our $2.8 billion in revenue marked the highest quarterly revenue ever recorded in our history. Our unit revenue was up 27% versus 2019, which we also believe is best in the industry and underscores that our commercial initiatives are delivering. And last but not least, we ratified 3 major labor contracts becoming the first major airline to reach a deal with our mainline pilot group.

我們在今年夏天運行了最好的操作，在 6 月到 9 月期間以 #1 DOT 的準時性能引領行業。我們 28 億美元的收入是我們歷史上有史以來最高的季度收入。與 2019 年相比，我們的單位收入增長了 27%，我們也認為這是業內最好的，並強調了我們的商業計劃正在交付。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們批准了 3 份主要的勞動合同，成為第一家與我們的干線飛行員集團達成協議的主要航空公司。

Our leadership team have been very deliberate about our priorities this year and setting ourselves up for continued success. We are seeing results as we focus on moving rapidly to a single fleet, delivering operational excellence, securing labor contracts and configuring our business for profitable growth. Our financial results are strong and our underlying business model is resilient.

我們的領導團隊對今年的優先事項進行了深思熟慮，並為繼續取得成功做好了準備。隨著我們專注於快速轉向單一車隊、提供卓越運營、確保勞動合同並配置我們的業務以實現盈利增長，我們正在看到成果。我們的財務業績強勁，我們的基本業務模式具有彈性。

To put it simply, we are poised to continue to outperform and are excited about what the future holds. Now let me give you a quick update on our top priorities. Our fleet transition is progressing well, and we are closing in on getting back to a single fleet. All A320 and Q400 aircraft will be out of the fleet by January of 2023, and the 10 A321 will follow by the end of 2023. Today, we have 35 MAX aircraft that are 25% more fuel-efficient per seat than the smaller A320s they are replacing.

簡而言之，我們準備繼續表現出色，並對未來的發展感到興奮。現在讓我快速介紹一下我們的首要任務。我們的機隊過渡進展順利，我們正在接近恢復單一機隊。到 2023 年 1 月，所有 A320 和 Q400 飛機都將退出機隊，10 架 A321 將在 2023 年底前停產。今天，我們擁有 35 架 MAX 飛機，每座飛機的燃油效率比它們的小型 A320 高 25%正在更換。

We expect to have 78 MAX aircraft by end of next year, representing over 30% of our mainline fleet. As we focus on reconfiguring our business back to a single fleet, transition training for nearly 500 of our pilots will continue through May of next year. After which we expect to begin to ramp toward a $75 million single fleet savings we outlined at Investor Day. Our operation is also back on track.

我們預計到明年年底將擁有 78 架 MAX 飛機，占我們主線機隊的 30% 以上。由於我們專注於將業務重新配置為單一機隊，我們近 500 名飛行員的過渡培訓將持續到明年 5 月。之後，我們預計將開始逐步實現我們在投資者日概述的 7500 萬美元的單一車隊節省。我們的運營也重回正軌。

This summer, we returned to delivering a reliable operation with a completion rate over 99% each month of the quarter despite flying record high load factors throughout the summer. Horizon has also posted fantastic operating results with the #1 completion rate in the industry at 99.5%. And importantly, our guests have noticed with our guest satisfaction score improving and exceeding our target for the quarter.

今年夏天，儘管整個夏天的載客率創下歷史新高，但我們仍以本季度每個月的 99% 以上的完成率恢復了可靠的運營。 Horizon 還發布了出色的運營業績，完成率為 99.5%，在行業中排名第一。重要的是，我們的客人注意到我們的客人滿意度得分提高並超過了我們本季度的目標。

We locked in 3 major labor deals, a huge milestone for us that has been a primary focus of ours for several months. Following the ratification of a contract extension with IAM in September, we are excited to reach ratified deals with both our Horizon and Alaska pilots as well. Securing a new contract with our Horizon pilots provides us a strong foundation for our efforts in attracting, retaining and building a robust pilot pipeline.

我們鎖定了 3 項主要的勞務交易，這對我們來說是一個巨大的里程碑，幾個月來一直是我們的主要關注點。在 9 月批准與 IAM 的合同延期後，我們很高興與我們的 Horizon 和阿拉斯加飛行員達成批准的交易。與我們的 Horizon 試點簽訂新合同，為我們努力吸引、保留和建立強大的試點管道奠定了堅實的基礎。

Also Monday of this week, our Alaska mainline pilots represented by ALPA, ratified a new 3-year agreement that recognizes that their contributions to our success and the market for pilots in the industry. We are excited for the stability and alignment. This brings our organization and will prioritize getting our upcoming labor agreements done as well. We have a lot to be positive about here at Air Group. We are delivering on our goals and demand remains strong. We also realized there are challenges our industry is facing, including an uncertain economic backdrop, and a structural step-up in wages.

同樣在本週的星期一，我們以 ALPA 為代表的阿拉斯加干線飛行員批准了一項新的 3 年協議，該協議承認他們對我們的成功和行業飛行員市場的貢獻。我們對穩定性和一致性感到興奮。這帶來了我們的組織，並將優先考慮完成我們即將達成的勞動協議。在 Air Group，我們有很多值得肯定的地方。我們正在實現我們的目標，需求依然強勁。我們還意識到我們的行業面臨著挑戰，包括不確定的經濟背景和工資的結構性增長。

Going forward, we are uniquely positioned to offset this pressure by leveraging initiatives we already have in place. One of the most impactful will be harnessing the structural efficiencies that come with our return to single fleet, a tailwind that will be unique to Alaska. This includes increasing productivity as we eliminate cross-training events more efficient scheduling by moving to our preferential bank system for our mainline pilots and cost-effective growth through upgauging.

展望未來，我們具有獨特的優勢，可以通過利用我們已有的舉措來抵消這種壓力。最具影響力的一項將是利用我們回歸單一機隊所帶來的結構效率，這將是阿拉斯加獨有的順風。這包括提高生產力，因為我們消除了交叉培訓事件，通過遷移到我們的主線試點優先銀行系統和通過升級實現成本效益增長來更有效地調度。

We are not immune to the challenges of the industry but remain committed to keeping our cost advantage relative to our competitors as we move forward. We are fortunate to be on solid footing as we look to finish out the year and build on our performance into 2023. Our priorities not only this year but throughout the pandemic have centered on preparing our airline for profitable growth, and we have taken strategic steps to bolster our competitive advantages. As these initiatives continue to fully ramp up, they will support our results both in the near and long term.

我們不能倖免於行業的挑戰，但在我們前進的過程中，我們仍然致力於保持我們相對於競爭對手的成本優勢。我們很幸運能夠站穩腳跟，因為我們希望結束這一年並在 2023 年繼續我們的業績。我們不僅今年而且在整個大流行期間的優先事項都集中在為我們的航空公司做好盈利增長的準備，我們已經採取了戰略步驟以增強我們的競爭優勢。隨著這些舉措繼續全面推進，它們將支持我們的近期和長期成果。

Near term, this is already evident in our unit revenue outperformance and the fact that we are still tracking to deliver a 6% to 9% full year adjusted pretax margin unchanged despite now including the impact from our new labor deal.

短期內，這在我們的單位收入表現中已經很明顯，而且我們仍在跟踪實現 6% 至 9% 的全年調整後稅前利潤率不變，儘管現在包括我們新勞工協議的影響。

And longer term, the foundational strength of our balance sheet, coupled with our commercial road map and commitment to operational excellence will continue to support strong financial performance. To close, I am excited to see all of our hard work begin to come to fruition and for the opportunity that we have ahead of us over the coming quarters and years. Lastly, before I hand things over to Andrew, I want to thank all of our Air Group employees for a great summer and everything that they do.

從長遠來看，我們資產負債表的基礎實力，加上我們的商業路線圖和對卓越運營的承諾，將繼續支持強勁的財務業績。結束時，我很高興看到我們所有的辛勤工作開始取得成果，並在未來幾個季度和幾年中看到我們面前的機會。最後，在我把事情交給安德魯之前，我要感謝我們所有的航空集團員工，感謝他們度過了一個美好的夏天以及他們所做的一切。

Running a safe, reliable operation is critical to our success on all fronts and serving our guests, connecting our communities and delivering on our financial performance and our success would not be possible without their tremendous effort and the care they continue to show day in and day out. And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

運行安全、可靠的運營對於我們在各個方面取得成功和為客人服務、連接我們的社區和實現我們的財務業績至關重要出去。有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Well, thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will focus primarily on our third quarter results, along with fourth quarter guidance. In the third quarter, we achieved our highest recorded revenue in our history $2.8 billion. This revenue performance, up 18% versus 2019 on 7% less capacity, resulted in very strong unit revenue performance. .

嗯，謝謝，Ben，大家早上好。我今天的評論將主要集中在我們的第三季度業績以及第四季度的指導上。第三季度，我們實現了 28 億美元的歷史最高收入。這一收入表現與 2019 年相比增長了 18%，而產能減少了 7%，導致了非常強勁的單位收入表現。 .

Unit revenues were up 27% versus 2019, a sequential improvement versus an already exceptional second quarter despite yields having peaked from the levels seen back in June and July. Load factors also remained strong, exceeding 2019 levels every month of the quarter and coming in at 86.5% for the full quarter. Our network and revenue teams did a fantastic job partnering together to maximize revenue performance, which was also fueled by revenues generated from the commercial teams initiatives. These factors, coupled with capacity constraints across the industry during a period of elevated demand has translated into a strong pricing environment. Moving to product categories.

儘管收益率已從 6 月和 7 月的水平達到頂峰，但與 2019 年相比，單位收入增長了 27%，與本已非常出色的第二季度相比連續改善。載客率也保持強勁，本季度每個月都超過 2019 年的水平，整個季度達到 86.5%。我們的網絡和收入團隊合作完成了出色的工作，以最大限度地提高收入績效，這也得益於商業團隊計劃產生的收入。這些因素，再加上需求增加期間整個行業的產能限制，已轉化為強勁的定價環境。轉向產品類別。

Our premium products continue to show strength as they have all year. First Class and Premium Class revenue were both up approximately 28% versus 2019. Paid load factors continue to exceed 2019 levels with first-class up 4 points and premium class up 9 points, both on higher average fares. The strong cash flow generation from our loyalty program has also continued throughout the year. Cash remuneration from the bank was up 37% versus the third quarter of 2019 and while total loyalty revenues finished the quarter up 34% year over 3 recently voted the #1 Best Airline Rewards Program by U.S. News & World Report.

我們的優質產品一如既往地表現出全年的實力。與 2019 年相比，頭等艙和特等艙收入均增長了約 28%。付費載客率繼續超過 2019 年的水平，頭等艙增長 4 個百分點，特等艙增長 9 個百分點，均在更高的平均票價下。我們的忠誠度計劃產生的強勁現金流也持續全年。與 2019 年第三季度相比，該銀行的現金薪酬增長了 37%，而忠誠度總收入在本季度結束時同比增長 34%，3 最近被《美國新聞與世界報導》評為最佳航空公司獎勵計劃第一名。

We believe our credit card and our loyalty program offer exceptional value to our guests and a continued source of growth for our business. These strong results were included in our product and loyalty initiatives this year. We are tracking ahead of plan and are set to recognize approximately $135 million in incremental revenue on our long-term goal of $195 million. This initiative is of the key reasons for our unit revenue outperformance.

我們相信我們的信用卡和忠誠度計劃為我們的客人提供了非凡的價值，並為我們的業務提供了持續增長的來源。這些強勁的結果已包含在我們今年的產品和忠誠度計劃中。我們正在提前跟踪計劃，並將在我們 1.95 億美元的長期目標上確認約 1.35 億美元的增量收入。這一舉措是我們單位收入表現優異的關鍵原因。

Turning to corporate travel trends. After taking a step up earlier this year, business travel volumes have remained around 75% to 80% recovered from 2019 levels, while revenue was approximately 10 points better than this given the yield environment. Notwithstanding a slower recovery of corporate demand across the West Coast, we believe our business recovery is in line with the majors, underscoring the improved business offering we have versus pre-COVID. Additionally, while some of our corporate partners have been slower to return to travel, we believe we are benefiting from employees at these companies taking more personal and hybrid travel as they move around and work remotely. I fully expect that we can restore 100% of business revenue.

轉向商務旅行趨勢。在今年早些時候有所提升後，商務旅行量仍保持在 75% 至 80% 左右，從 2019 年的水平恢復，而考慮到收益環境，收入比這高出約 10 個百分點。儘管整個西海岸的企業需求復蘇較慢，但我們認為我們的業務復甦與主要業務一致，突顯出我們的業務產品與 COVID 之前相比有所改善。此外，雖然我們的一些企業合作夥伴恢復旅行的速度較慢，但我們相信，這些公司的員工在四處走動和遠程工作時進行了更多的個人和混合旅行，這讓我們受益匪淺。我完全期望我們可以恢復 100% 的業務收入。

Year-to-date, we've improved our share gap from 2019 levels through our corporate distribution channels because of the increased opportunities we have from working with Amex, GBT and joint contracting with American. And finally, our One World and international partnerships have continued their positive momentum from what we shared last quarter, sustaining a high single-digit contribution to our total coupon revenue for the quarter.

年初至今，我們通過企業分銷渠道改善了與 2019 年水平相比的份額差距，因為我們與美國運通、GBT 合作以及與美國聯合簽訂合同的機會增加了。最後，我們的 One World 和國際合作夥伴關係延續了我們上個季度分享的積極勢頭，為本季度的總票面收入保持了高個位數的貢獻。

As we sit today, international and business travel have not fully recovered, which we believe only offers more revenue upside from these partnerships. It will take a few more quarters to get a more complete sense for the impact, but there is no doubt that the strength of these partnerships is real and that this is an accretive revenue source for our business going forward. Looking ahead to guidance for the fourth quarter, we expect total revenue to be up 12% to 15% on capacity that is down 7% to 10% versus 2019.

正如我們今天所坐的那樣，國際和商務旅行還沒有完全恢復，我們認為這些合作只會帶來更多的收入增長。還需要幾個季度才能更全面地了解其影響，但毫無疑問，這些合作夥伴關係的實力是真實的，而且這是我們未來業務增長的收入來源。展望第四季度的指引，我們預計總收入將增長 12% 至 15%，而產能較 2019 年下降 7% 至 10%。

By a wide margin, our go-forward capacity will be most constrained in the fourth quarter as we retire 45 aircraft across our mainline and regional fleet by the end of January and execute training events in preparation for 2023 growth starting in the first quarter.

在很大程度上，我們的前進能力將在第四季度受到最大的限制，因為我們將在 1 月底之前在我們的主線和區域機隊中退役 45 架飛機，並開展培訓活動，為從第一季度開始的 2023 年增長做準備。

This guidance implies fourth quarter unit revenue performance of approximately 24% versus 2019. As we look to the fourth quarter, bookings remain healthy as guests continue to book holiday travel. As has been the case throughout the summer, we are booking solidly ahead of 2019 load factors through the end of the year and are on track to fly a record load factor for the fourth quarter. We are currently holding yields at approximately 20% higher versus the Q4 of 2019.

該指引意味著與 2019 年相比，第四季度的單位收入表現約為 24%。展望第四季度，隨著客人繼續預訂假日旅行，預訂量保持健康。與整個夏季的情況一樣，我們在 2019 年年底的載客率之前一直在預訂，並且有望在第四季度創下創紀錄的載客率。我們目前將收益率維持在比 2019 年第四季度高出約 20% 的水平。

On the network side, we will continue to focus on deepening the spokes of our system as we fully restore our capacity to 2019 levels by spring and grow from there. As we look at our network, the competitive backdrop is still favorable as the West Coast remains the least recovered with competitive capacity down over 20% versus 2019. As we move into 2023, we are looking forward to taking more MAX deliveries to upgauge and grow efficiently in some of our strongest and capacity-constrained markets such as Seattle.

在網絡方面，我們將繼續專注於深化我們的系統輻條，因為我們將在春季將我們的容量完全恢復到 2019 年的水平並從那裡發展。當我們審視我們的網絡時，競爭背景仍然有利，因為西海岸仍然是恢復最少的地區，與 2019 年相比，競爭能力下降了 20% 以上。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們期待著更多的 MAX 交付來升級和增長在我們一些最強大且容量受限的市場（例如西雅圖）中有效地進行。

And to wrap up, we remain in a remarkable demand environment, and we look forward to closing out a strong year of revenue performance. We've configured our business for incremental improvement and are already seeing the benefits from joining One World, our partnership with American and our new credit card deal.

最後，我們仍處於顯著的需求環境中，我們期待著結束強勁的收入表現。我們已將業務配置為逐步改進，並且已經看到加入寰宇一家、我們與美國航空的合作夥伴關係以及我們的新信用卡交易所帶來的好處。

More importantly, the commercial drivers we have in place are poised to unlock in even greater way as we move into 2023. And I look forward to sharing more details during our year-end call. Our $400 million of commercial initiatives is proven and tangible, and we will continue to support our revenue performance over the coming quarters and years.

更重要的是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們現有的商業驅動力有望以更大的方式釋放。我期待在年終電話會議上分享更多細節。我們 4 億美元的商業計劃已得到證實且切實可行，我們將在未來幾個季度和幾年內繼續支持我們的收入表現。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Shane.

有了這個，我會把它交給Shane。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Our $325 million adjusted net profit this quarter reflects both the strong demand backdrop we are experiencing and the strength of Alaska's business model. We are encouraged by the return to operational stability and reliability this quarter, and we are also encouraged by the absence of the extreme COVID-related volatility that had challenged us for more than 2 years.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。我們本季度 3.25 億美元的調整後淨利潤既反映了我們正在經歷的強勁需求背景，也反映了阿拉斯加商業模式的實力。我們對本季度恢復運營穩定性和可靠性感到鼓舞，我們也對過去兩年多來一直挑戰我們的與 COVID 相關的極端波動不存在感到鼓舞。

Our results largely landed within previously guided ranges with no major disruptions causing significant and unanticipated revisions, which seems like a small thing, but it's actually quite refreshing. Not only did we deliver a very strong quarter operationally and financially. But as Ben mentioned, we ratified 3 key labor deals as well. Completing these deals is an important step in ensuring we have contracts that recognize the contributions of our people and also allow us to fully focus on running a great operation, taking care of guests and pursuing our growth and financial performance road maps.

我們的結果在很大程度上落在了先前的指導範圍內，沒有造成重大和意外修改的重大中斷，這似乎是一件小事，但實際上非常令人耳目一新。我們不僅在運營和財務上實現了非常強勁的季度。但正如 Ben 提到的，我們也批准了 3 項關鍵的勞工協議。完成這些交易是確保我們簽訂認可員工貢獻的合同的重要一步，同時也讓我們能夠完全專注於運營出色的業務、照顧客人並追求我們的增長和財務業績路線圖。

I'll briefly walk through highlights of our third quarter performance before discussing costs and labor contracts that are incorporated in our results and our fourth quarter guidance. On the back of the continued strong demand environment, we generated $174 million in cash flow from operations during the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date operating cash flow to $1.4 billion. Total liquidity, inclusive of on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit remains at a healthy $3.6 billion, providing us 2x the cash we need to run our business and ample funds to pay for our Boeing aircraft deliveries over the next year.

在討論納入我們的業績和第四季度指導的成本和勞動合同之前，我將簡要介紹我們第三季度業績的亮點。在持續強勁的需求環境下，我們在第三季度從運營中產生了 1.74 億美元的現金流，使我們年初至今的運營現金流達到 14 億美元。包括手頭現金和未動用信貸額度在內的總流動性仍保持在 36 億美元的健康水平，為我們提供了經營業務所需現金的兩倍，並有充足的資金來支付明年波音飛機的交付費用。

Our balance sheet remains strong with debt to cap at 49%. Debt payments during the quarter were approximately $100 million and remaining payments for the year are $50 million. And as you know, shareholder restrictions associated with our cares funding also officially rolled off at the end of September. With our strong operational and financial performance and solid balance sheet, we look forward to discussing potential shareholder returns with our Board next month.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，債務上限為 49%。本季度的債務支付約為 1 億美元，本年度的剩餘支付為 5000 萬美元。如您所知，與我們的關懷資金相關的股東限制也在 9 月底正式推出。憑藉我們強勁的運營和財務業績以及穩健的資產負債表，我們期待下個月與董事會討論潛在的股東回報。

Turning to costs, CASMex increased 19.3% in the third quarter versus 2019, 30 basis points above our guidance range. As a reminder, our practice is not to include new contract impacts in our guidance until ratified. Our new labor agreements added $35 million of cost that were not in our original guidance. And excluding these, our CASMex would have been up 16.8%, which would have been below the midpoint of our guidance range.

談到成本，CASMex 在第三季度與 2019 年相比增長了 19.3%，比我們的指導範圍高出 30 個基點。提醒一下，我們的做法是在批准之前不將新的合同影響納入我們的指導。我們的新勞動協議增加了 3500 萬美元的成本，這不在我們最初的指導範圍內。不包括這些，我們的 CASMex 將上漲 16.8%，這將低於我們指導範圍的中點。

Other transient cost drivers in the quarter include $30 million associated with issuing each of our employees 90,000 mileage plan miles in recognition of all of their extraordinary work during the pandemic and our 90th anniversary as an airline and approximately $15 million in costs associated with carrying higher staffing complements relative to our flying that we believe will need in the future.

本季度的其他臨時成本驅動因素包括與為每位員工發放 90,000 英里計劃里程相關的 3000 萬美元，以表彰他們在大流行期間和我們作為航空公司成立 90 週年期間所做的所有非凡工作，以及與增加人員配備相關的約 1500 萬美元成本與我們認為未來需要的飛行相關的補充。

These 2 items represent a 3-point impact to CASMex in the quarter. Turning to fourth quarter guidance and our longer-term thinking into 2023, let me begin by saying that our Q4 capacity remains artificially constrained as we focus on transition training our pilots to meet our deadline for retiring Q400s and A320s in January. We'll have both the added cost of these training events and have fewer pilots available to fly in revenue service during the quarter and into the first quarter of next year.

這兩項對本季度的 CASMex 產生了 3 點影響。談到第四季度的指導和我們對 2023 年的長期思考，我首先要說的是，我們的第四季度產能仍然受到人為限制，因為我們專注於對飛行員進行過渡培訓，以滿足我們在一月份退役 Q400 和 A320 的最後期限。我們將承擔這些培訓活動的額外成本，並在本季度和明年第一季度提供更少的飛行員可以在收入服務中飛行。

We expect fourth quarter capacity to be down 7% to 10% versus 2019, approximately 2 points sequentially worse versus the third quarter, where we were down 6.7%. We still expect full year capacity to be down 8% to 9% versus 2019. Our absolute costs will increase from the third to fourth quarter, entirely driven by our new labor agreements and expected strong payouts for our performance-based pay program, as we continue to expect to meet a number of our strategic and financial goals, including being amongst the top margin producers for the full year.

我們預計第四季度的運力將比 2019 年下降 7% 至 10%，比第三季度下降 6.7% 時連續下降約 2 個百分點。我們仍然預計全年產能將比 2019 年下降 8% 至 9%。我們的絕對成本將從第三季度到第四季度增加，這完全是由我們的新勞工協議和預期我們基於績效的薪酬計劃的強勁支出推動的，因為我們繼續期望實現我們的一些戰略和財務目標，包括成為全年利潤最高的生產商之一。

We expect CASMex to be up 20% to 23% in the quarter, approximately 4 points of this are structural costs related to our new labor agreements. 2 points are related to anticipated strong PBP program payouts and lower capacity and higher staffing complements or an approximate 4-point headwind during the quarter. Turning to fuel. While oil prices have moderated some over the quarter, they remain elevated and crack spreads continue to be both elevated and volatile. We expect fuel price per gallon to be $3.50 to $3.70 for the fourth quarter.

我們預計 CASMex 在本季度將增長 20% 至 23%，其中大約 4 個點是與我們的新勞工協議相關的結構性成本。 2 分與預期的強勁 PBP 計劃支出、較低的產能和較高的人員補充或本季度約 4 分的逆風有關。轉向燃料。儘管油價在本季度有所放緩，但仍處於高位，裂解價差繼續高企且波動不定。我們預計第四季度每加侖燃油價格為 3.50 美元至 3.70 美元。

Our hedging program is expected to provide a significant benefit this year of around $170 million. For the full year, we now expect CASMex to be up 19% to 20%. However, we are reiterating our full year adjusted pretax margin guide of 6% to 9%, and we continue to expect to close the year with a month of the top pretax results industry-wide. Last quarter, we outlined that we were prioritizing securing labor deals and returning to a reliable operation above other considerations as those are foundational to the long-term success and financial performance of the company.

我們的對沖計劃預計今年將帶來約 1.7 億美元的顯著收益。對於全年，我們現在預計 CASMex 將上漲 19% 至 20%。但是，我們重申了 6% 至 9% 的全年調整後稅前利潤率指南，並且我們繼續期望以一個月的全行業最高稅前結果結束今年。上個季度，我們概述了我們優先考慮確保勞動力交易和恢復可靠運營，而不是其他考慮因素，因為這些是公司長期成功和財務業績的基礎。

They are also the foundation of being able to deliver higher levels of productivity and cost leverage going forward. Having solidified our operational reliability, our focus will now shift to leveraging growth in 2023 to reduce unit costs across Air Group.

它們也是未來能夠提供更高水平的生產力和成本槓桿的基礎。在鞏固了我們的運營可靠性之後，我們現在的重點將轉向利用 2023 年的增長來降低整個航空集團的單位成本。

While there will be some continued productivity and capacity drag from fleet transitions in the first half of the year, our business plan for next year will include a return to our 2019 size during the first half of 2023 and will also include a reduction in unit costs year-over-year. While we won't share specifics on 2023 guidance until our Q4 call, we are very much looking forward to leveraging the benefits of single fleet at Alaskan Horizon, higher levels of aircraft utilization and the significant benefits of updating from A320s to 737-9s and ultimately, 737-10s.

儘管今年上半年車隊轉型將繼續對生產力和產能造成拖累，但我們明年的業務計劃將包括在 2023 年上半年恢復到 2019 年的規模，還將包括降低單位成本一年又一年。雖然在第四季度電話會議之前我們不會分享 2023 年指導的細節，但我們非常期待利用阿拉斯加地平線單一機隊的優勢、更高水平的飛機利用率以及從 A320 升級到 737-9 和最終，737-10s。

These are all consistent with the road map we shared at Investor Day back in March and along with our commercial road map that is already producing and has further upside from here, I believe we are well positioned for continued improvement in our business in 2023 and beyond.

這些都與我們在 3 月份的投資者日分享的路線圖以及我們已經在生產並從這裡進一步上漲的商業路線圖一致，我相信我們已做好準備在 2023 年及以後繼續改善我們的業務.

And with that, let's go to your questions.

有了這個，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Can you kind of give us an update now that you have both of your pilot contracts done, and this is to you, Ben, what you have seen on the attrition side? Has it completely sort of done a $180 million? And where are you with respect to having an appropriate number of both check airmen and trainers. You did mention that there's going to be a lot of training as pilots move off of the Q400s and A320s, are you ready as we enter into the new year?

既然你已經完成了你的兩個試點合同，你能不能給我們一個更新，這是給你的，本，你在減員方面看到了什麼？它是否完全完成了 1.8 億美元？你在哪裡擁有適當數量的檢查飛行員和培訓師。您確實提到，隨著飛行員離開 Q400 和 A320，將會進行大量培訓，您準備好迎接新的一年了嗎？

Mike, yes, what we're really pleased with both contracts on both the regional side and the mainline side. And these are really great deals for us on the attraction retention side of the business. In terms of what we're seeing for attrition, it's a little early to tell, but early indications are, we are seeing some benefit on both the regional and mainline side.

邁克，是的，我們對區域方面和主線方面的合同感到非常滿意。在業務的吸引力保留方面，這些對我們來說確實是很棒的交易。就我們所看到的減員而言，現在說還為時過早，但早期跡象表明，我們在區域和主線方面都看到了一些好處。

So I think this is really pivotal for us. It's going to really help us long term in terms of growth plans. In terms of Check Airmen, in terms of the training output, we have -- we've seen a lot of improvement since the spring. We're producing about 65 pilots out of the schoolhouse a month with the goal being 100. We're increasing the number of check garment to help us improve that throughput, but we are on track right now to deliver our pilots, the pilots we need per month on both the regional and the mainline side, and we're pretty confident on executing that plan going forward. Anything, Joe, you want to add or -- Mike, go ahead, if you have a follow-up.

所以我認為這對我們來說真的很關鍵。從長遠來看，這將真正幫助我們制定增長計劃。在檢查飛行員方面，在訓練輸出方面，我們已經 - 自春季以來我們已經看到了很多改進。我們每月在校舍外生產大約 65 名飛行員，目標是 100 名。我們正在增加格子服裝的數量以幫助我們提高吞吐量，但我們現在正在按計劃交付飛行員，我們的飛行員區域和主線方面每月都需要，我們對執行該計劃非常有信心。喬，你想補充什麼，或者——邁克，繼續，如果你有後續。

(Operator Instructions) In the meantime, our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）與此同時，我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

There was a lot in there in terms of guidance points. Can you just refresh us on what you said about the first half and kind of the rate of capacity recovery in the first half? Is it sort of comprehensively a first half back to 100%? Or is that something like you'd hit in 2Q?

在指導點方面有很多內容。您能否簡單介紹一下您所說的上半年以及上半年的產能恢復率？上半年是否全面恢復到100%？還是像你在 2Q 中遇到的那樣？

Yes, I think it's likely to be sort of in the middle of the first half of the year. I'm not -- we're still finalizing our Jan Feb plans. But we'll be back to 2019 size confidently sometime in the latter half of first quarter or early second quarter. With the transition training, it will be a little bit sort of choppy in terms of how the capacity comes back online. But we're excited to get there, and we've got a lot of aircraft coming in the first half of the year that can then take us ultimately above the 2019 size, and we feel like there's demand for it through the second half of the year.

是的，我認為這可能是在今年上半年的中期。我不是——我們仍在敲定 1 月 2 月的計劃。但我們將在第一季度後半期或第二季度初的某個時候自信地回到 2019 年的規模。通過過渡培訓，就容量如何恢復在線而言，這將有點不穩定。但是我們很高興能到達那裡，我們有很多飛機在今年上半年到來，最終可以使我們最終超過 2019 年的規模，我們覺得在下半年對它有需求那一年。

And on that delivery stream, can you just walk us through what you expect next year and your line of sight or confidence on those deliveries just given the environment?

在那個交付流中，您能否簡單介紹一下您對明年的期望以及您對這些交付的視線或信心，只是考慮到環境？

Duane, it's Nate Pieper. We've got 35 MAX airplanes now. And we think by the end of next year, we're projecting to have 78, Boeing obviously is 5 miles down the road, and we meet with them weekly to understand delivery constraints, et cetera. we're confident that they're going to deliver and give us the airplane capacity we need to hit our targets.

杜安，我是內特·皮珀。我們現在有 35 架 MAX 飛機。我們認為，到明年年底，我們預計將擁有 78 架飛機，波音公司顯然還有 5 英里的路程，我們每週都會與他們會面以了解交付限制等。我們相信他們將交付並為我們提供實現目標所需的飛機容量。

Our next question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just on the -- just a follow-up on some of the pilot training and cost and the elevated staffing costs. Just how much of a drag is that still in 1Q? I'm guessing the pilot training costs will kind of drop off after kind of the 1Q or early 2Q. I'm just kind of curious how much of -- what size of a drop-off there will be? And then kind of the elevated staffing, when do you see that moderating back to kind of historical levels?

只是關於 - 只是對一些飛行員培訓和成本以及增加的人員成本的跟進。第一季度還有多少阻力？我猜飛行員培訓成本會在第一季度或第二季度初期之後有所下降。我只是有點好奇會有多少——會有多大的下降？然後是增加的人員配置，你什麼時候看到恢復到歷史水平？

It's about -- just to put context around it. For Q4, the overstaffing and transition training is about 1.5 points of our Q4 year-over-year CASM or year over 3 CASM guide. It's likely to be similar-ish in Q1, and then it will start to taper and be completely gone by the end of Q2.

它是關於 - 只是為了把它放在上下文中。對於第 4 季度，超員和過渡培訓大約是我們第 4 季度 CASM 同比或 3 年以上 CASM 指南的 1.5 分。它可能在第一季度類似，然後它會開始逐漸減少並在第二季度末完全消失。

Both costs will be gone?

兩種成本都會消失嗎？

Correct. Correct. Yes.

正確的。正確的。是的。

Okay. Got it. And then just a follow-up with the -- on the Boeing deliveries and things of that. Just any kind of revised thoughts on CapEx? I know the CapEx came down a little bit here in 2022 can view on 2023, '24 CapEx and the financing of that.

好的。知道了。然後只是對波音交付和其他事情的跟進。只是對資本支出有任何修改意見嗎？我知道 2022 年的資本支出在這里略有下降，可以查看 2023 年、24 年的資本支出及其融資情況。

Yes, I'll have Emily sort of update. One thing I would just say, and it's intuitive, and I know you're hearing it from everybody, but not only on aircraft, on every capital item we're buying things are shifting to the right. I think supply chains everywhere are elongated still. New SIMs are taking a little bit longer. GSE equipment is taking longer. So things what we plan to buy. It just seems like they're taking longer to get in right now, but Emily can give you some more on the totals.

是的，我會有 Emily 的更新。我只想說一件事，它很直觀，我知道你從每個人那裡都聽到了，但不僅在飛機上，在我們購買的每一個資本項目上，事情都在向右移動。我認為各地的供應鏈仍在拉長。新的 SIM 卡需要更長的時間。 GSE 設備需要更長的時間。所以我們計劃購買的東西。看起來他們現在需要更長的時間才能進入，但艾米麗可以給你更多的總數。

Yes. I think Shane covered it pretty well. You saw that our guide for 2022 came down about $100 million. You should expect most of that to shift into 2023. And when we give our full year 2023 guide, we'll refresh you guys from the numbers we gave you at Investor Day, which we had originally said was around $2 billion for 2023. So I expect that to go up a little bit.

是的。我認為Shane很好地涵蓋了它。你看到我們的 2022 年指南下降了大約 1 億美元。您應該預計其中大部分將轉移到 2023 年。當我們提供 2023 年全年指南時，我們將根據我們在投資者日為您提供的數字更新你們，我們最初說 2023 年約為 20 億美元。所以我預計會上升一點。

And is the financing, Emily, is that debt or cash or any thoughts on the financing side?

艾米麗，融資是債務還是現金，還是融資方面的任何想法？

Savi, it's Nat. It will all be cash. We still continue to hold more than 2x the amount of liquidity we need to run the airline. So best thing we can possibly do is pay cash for airplanes. .

薩維，我是納特。都將是現金。我們仍然繼續持有超過 2 倍於運營航空公司所需的流動性。所以我們能做的最好的事情就是為飛機支付現金。 .

Our next question comes from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

Shane, a lot to unpack on the CASM front in 4Q and for the year. Just stepping back when we think of 2022 CASM up 19% versus 2019. Can you kind of break out for us of that up '19? Like what are the kind of the onetime items that you feel like will not repeat as we move into 2023? And how much of your CASM this year is just from not having your network fully restored? Just trying to get a good run rate potential for 2023 unit costs.

Shane，在第四季度和今年的 CASM 方面有很多東西要解開。當我們想到 2022 年 CASM 比 2019 年增長 19% 時，我們只是退後一步。你能為我們打破 19 年的情況嗎？當我們進入 2023 年時，您認為哪些一次性物品不會重複？今年你的 CASM 有多少是因為你的網絡沒有完全恢復？只是試圖為 2023 年的單位成本獲得良好的運行率潛力。

Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Andrew. Number one, I just want to remind folks that in terms of the updated cost guide, the only thing that's changed for full year for us is the new labor deals. Everything else is tracking exactly as we expected it to. And then, Andrew, you hit on it, the biggest drag to CASM or headwind for us this year is not producing the ASMs that we had wanted to originally. We made a very deliberate -- obviously, in Q1, we were all impacted by COVID waves and the entire industry had to take capacity out. We had a big snowstorm here in Seattle that drug into January. .

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題，安德魯。第一，我只想提醒人們，就更新的成本指南而言，對我們來說全年唯一改變的是新的勞動力交易。其他一切都完全按照我們的預期進行跟踪。然後，安德魯，你說得對，今年對我們來說，CASM 的最大阻力或逆風不是生產我們最初想要的 ASM。我們做了一個非常慎重的決定——顯然，在第一季度，我們都受到了 COVID 浪潮的影響，整個行業都不得不拿出產能。到 1 月，我們在西雅圖遇到了一場大暴風雪。 .

But we made a deliberate decision to pull down the schedule by 6, 7, 8 points during the summer and to hold it lower during Q4 as well as we prioritize operational stability and now that we're stable, we've got terrific completion rates. We've got great on-time performance. We feel really good about our staffing complement levels and our ability to fill new classes across every role in the company.

但是我們故意決定在夏季將時間表降低 6、7、8 個百分點，並在第四季度保持較低水平，並且我們優先考慮運營穩定性，現在我們穩定了，我們的完成率非常高.我們有出色的準時表現。我們對我們的人員配備水平以及我們在公司的每個角色中填補新課程的能力感到非常滿意。

We're ready to get much more growth-minded and begin to leverage sort of the goodness that comes with growing and getting back to productivity next year. As one data point, I think we're still 10 points below our historical norm for productivity. I don't know that we'll get all of that back next year, but we're going to make a big sort of -- we'll get a big chunk of that back coming next year. So that's really the biggest thing.

我們已經準備好變得更加註重增長，並開始利用增長帶來的好處，並在明年恢復生產力。作為一個數據點，我認為我們的生產力仍比歷史標準低 10 個百分點。我不知道明年我們會拿回所有這些，但我們會做出很大的貢獻——明年我們會拿回其中的很大一部分。所以這真的是最重要的事情。

Everything else -- the only structural real change is the labor deals. I think we're unique right now, having been the first to get the mainline pilot deal done. I suspect we won't be unique for very long. And so that is something that the entire industry will ultimately have to do. And on a relative basis, we'll be in a really good position versus everybody as we have been historically.

其他一切——唯一的結構性真正變化是勞務交易。我認為我們現在是獨一無二的，我們是第一個完成主線試點交易的人。我懷疑我們不會很長時間都是獨一無二的。所以這是整個行業最終必須要做的事情。在相對的基礎上，我們將在歷史上與所有人相比處於非常好的位置。

Got it. And just a second question for Ben or Andrew. I think look, having the scale that you have in your hubs in the Pacific Northwest, you really, I think, really solid driver of your overall margin performance. I know you'll never get to the share in (inaudible) SFO that you have in Seattle and Portland. But I guess how long do you think it will take to build out those geographies as I think -- as you build up there, your margin should see a tailwind as you scale up there over time. Any thoughts on kind of the time frame of those California markets?

知道了。再問本或安德魯的第二個問題。我認為，擁有您在太平洋西北部樞紐的規模，我認為您確實是您整體利潤率表現的真正可靠驅動力。我知道你永遠不會得到你在西雅圖和波特蘭擁有的（聽不清）SFO 的份額。但我猜你認為建立這些地區需要多長時間 - 當你在那裡建立時，隨著時間的推移，你的利潤應該會看到順風。對那些加州市場的時間框架有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I think the all I would answer that is that as we move into next year and we give better guidance on our growth, we are returning more growth back to California. I think we feel really good about where we are, the markets we serve. And as we've shared all along, it's about frequency and depths of those markets. It's about unlocking global connections with both our OneWorld partners and with American. And I think we have a head of California Neil Thwaites down there. I meet with him every month. And I'm really excited about the focus and the discipline that we have down there where traditionally as the Pacific Northwest Company, we focus a lot up here. So overall, I don't think you're going to see a material change overall in the scheme of things. But what we do, do down there, I fully expect to get better and stronger over the next few years.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。我想我要回答的只是，隨著我們進入明年並且我們對我們的增長提供更好的指導，我們正在將更多的增長帶回加利福尼亞。我認為我們對自己所處的位置和所服務的市場感覺非常好。正如我們一直分享的那樣，這是關於這些市場的頻率和深度。這是關於解鎖與我們的 OneWorld 合作夥伴和美國航空的全球聯繫。而且我認為我們有一個加利福尼亞尼爾思韋茨的負責人在那裡。我每個月都會和他見面。我對我們在那裡的重點和紀律感到非常興奮，傳統上作為太平洋西北公司，我們在這裡非常關注。所以總的來說，我認為你不會在整體上看到重大變化。但是我們所做的，在那裡做的，我完全期望在接下來的幾年裡變得更好，更強大。

Our next question comes from Dan McKenzie from Seaport Global. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。 .

Shane, 2023 capacity is choppy as it comes back online, just going back to, I think, an earlier comment, does that tie to a choppy earnings recovery from here? And I guess related to this, we are seeing some of your peers lay out pretty big earnings goals in 2023. And setting aside the 11% to 13% pretax margin goal, what's your conviction that you can at least improve on your 2022 pretax margin as we move into next year?

Shane，2023 年的產能在重新上線時波動很大，我認為只是回到之前的評論，這是否與從這裡開始的波動性盈利復甦有關？我想與此相關的是，我們看到您的一些同行在 2023 年制定了相當大的盈利目標。撇開 11% 至 13% 的稅前利潤率目標，您有什麼信念至少可以提高 2022 年的稅前利潤率當我們進入明年？

Yes. Thanks, Dan. I don't think it portends a choppy earnings recovery. A lot of the sort of choppiness will be the base comp, like on a year-over-year basis, we've just had so much unexpected schedule pull down this year. And by the way, next year, we're going to comp to 2022. And so I think it will be fine. I don't think the earnings trajectory necessarily will follow the return of capacity trajectory, really confident we can improve our margins next year.

是的。謝謝，丹。我不認為這預示著收入將出現波濤洶湧的複蘇。很多這樣的波動將是基礎組合，就像年復一年一樣，我們今年剛剛有很多意想不到的日程安排。順便說一句，明年，我們要趕到 2022 年。所以我認為這會很好。我認為盈利軌跡不一定會跟隨產能軌蹟的回歸，我們真的有信心明年可以提高利潤率。

Really strong demand backdrop. I think the commercial team is doing a really good job of participating in that backdrop and currently outperforming the industry. And then we've got a lot of things that we need to go do on the cost side to take advantage of the strategic decisions we made around single fleet and getting back to historical norms on productivity. And so I think if the -- absent a major economic pullback, I think we feel really good about our ability to get improved margins next year.

真正強勁的需求背景。我認為商業團隊在參與這種背景下做得非常好，目前表現優於行業。然後，我們需要在成本方面做很多事情，以利用我們圍繞單一機隊做出的戰略決策，並恢復生產力的歷史標準。所以我認為，如果沒有重大的經濟回調，我認為我們對明年提高利潤率的能力感到非常滿意。

Terrific. Andrew, second question here. I guess, turning to you, $400 million in revenue initiatives outlined at the Investor Day, so loyalty network alliances, fleet upgauging. What percent of the revenue from -- what is the percent of revenue from premium products today, say, versus discounted leisure And how can we think about that premium revenue target as we move into 2023, given the fleet transformation?

了不起。安德魯，第二個問題。我想，轉向你，投資者日概述了 4 億美元的收入計劃，因此忠誠度網絡聯盟，機隊升級。收入的百分比是多少——比如說，今天的高端產品收入與折扣休閒產品的收入百分比是多少？考慮到車隊轉型，我們如何考慮到 2023 年的高端收入目標？

Yes. I think off the top of my head, I think both premium and first all-in coupon and upsells are $1 billion-plus businesses each just to give you a rough size of magnitude. I think our challenge is always, given the strong demand, we believe and we continue to believe the importance of taking care of our leads and upgrades. But we're also recognizing there is opportunity to continue to get more out of our premium products. We're opening up new distribution channels. And most importantly, as we upgauge our fleet and we get 25-plus percent increase in first-class seats, from the transition. We still see significant upsides. We're looking at some other things, which I won't go into today. But overall, my expectation is we continue to show good things in the premium product space.

是的。我突然想到，我認為溢價和首個全額優惠券和追加銷售都是 10 億美元以上的業務，只是為了給你一個粗略的規模。我認為我們的挑戰始終是，鑑於強勁的需求，我們相信並且我們繼續相信照顧我們的潛在客戶和升級的重要性。但我們也認識到有機會繼續從我們的優質產品中獲得更多收益。我們正在開闢新的分銷渠道。最重要的是，隨著我們升級我們的機隊，我們的頭等艙座位增加了 25% 以上。我們仍然看到顯著的上漲空間。我們正在研究其他一些事情，我今天不會討論。但總的來說，我的期望是我們繼續在高端產品領域展示好東西。

Our next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Can you just clarify the -- do we have the full impact of these -- of the pilot deal in Q4 costs? Or is it from the date of ratification? And then I just -- you made a comment that the only change is with CASM is this new pilot deal. But I thought you said it's -- there's a 4-point headwind from the pilot deal in the fourth quarter, but the full year CASM guidance coming up 3 points. So it feels like it's more than just labor. Maybe just -- I'm not sure I'm following.

您能否澄清一下——我們是否有這些影響——試點交易在第四季度的成本？還是從批准之日起？然後我只是- 你發表評論說，CASM 的唯一變化是這項新的試點交易。但我以為你說的是——第四季度的試點交易帶來了 4 個百分點的逆風，但全年 CASM 指引上升了 3 個百分點。所以感覺不僅僅是勞動。也許只是 - 我不確定我是否在關注。

Yes, sure. Yes, the -- and I would say labor deals, not just the mainline pilot deal is what we've been sort of speaking to. Those are fully baked into the fourth quarter ratably -- so that 4-point headwind is the structural sort of number that we're going to go forward with at this point. No, I think in terms of the full year CASMex guide, the real change between prior guidance and current guidance is the labor deals being incorporated. As you know, we don't guide to labor deals as we're negotiating. And so we closed 3 this quarter. And that's what we had to bring through our full year CASMex guide. There was 1 other category that went up a bit, and it is our performance-based pay. Because we do expect to be on the better end of many of our financial targets that we took a larger as well.

是的，當然。是的，我會說勞動力交易，而不僅僅是主線試點交易是我們一直在談論的。這些在第四季度已經完全成熟——所以4分的逆風是我們目前要推進的結構性數字。不，我認為就全年 CASMex 指南而言，先前指南和當前指南之間的真正變化是納入了勞工交易。如您所知，我們在談判時不會指導勞務交易。所以我們本季度關閉了 3 個。這就是我們必須通過我們的全年 CASMex 指南帶來的內容。還有一個類別有所上升，這是我們基於績效的薪酬。因為我們確實希望在我們制定的許多財務目標中取得更好的成績。

And then so when we think about next year, we'll have, I guess, the more quarters of labor will have capacity up, which should help maybe some of the inefficient go away. When you add it all up, would you think that CASM x is up or down '23 versus '22?

因此，當我們考慮明年時，我猜，我們將擁有更多的勞動力，這將有助於消除一些低效率的問題。當你把它全部加起來時，你認為 CASM x 在 '23 與 '22 之間是向上還是向下？

Yes. No, it will be down. As I said in my script, our business plan will be to have a reduction in CASMex in '23 versus '22?

是的。不，它會下降。正如我在腳本中所說，我們的商業計劃將是在 23 年與 22 年相比減少 CASMex？

Our next question comes from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

So Shane, following up on that last question, the pilot impact in the fourth quarter. So there's a look back to September 1 on wages and then the $33,000 and $22,000 bonuses for Captain and first officers, respectively. So that's in the guide. You're not going to take that as a one-timer in the fourth quarter. Is that correct?

因此，Shane 跟進最後一個問題，即第四季度的試點影響。因此，回顧一下 9 月 1 日的工資，然後是船長和副駕駛分別獲得 33,000 美元和 22,000 美元的獎金。所以這在指南中。你不會在第四節把它當作一次性的。那是對的嗎？

So the look back to September 1 is in the third quarter result that was recorded through the P&L the ratification bonus sort of lump sum payments, those were special in the quarter as well, not they're in the adjusted -- they're not in the adjusted number.

因此，回顧 9 月 1 日是通過損益表記錄的第三季度結果，批准獎金類型的一次性付款，這些在本季度也很特別，不是調整後的 - 他們不是在調整後的數字中。

Yes. Okay, got it. So the fourth quarter guide is clean of that. And then second, and it's a question on preferential bidding system. And I really hate asking stupid questions. But here we go. Why does it take until April of 2024 to go live? I mean, isn't it just like Software?

是的。好，知道了。所以第四季度指南是乾淨的。其次，關於優惠招標制度的問題。我真的很討厭問愚蠢的問題。但我們走了。為什麼要到 2024 年 4 月才能上線？我的意思是，它不就像軟件一樣嗎？

Yes. Yes. And it may be before that. So that your exhaustive reader of our agreement, Jamie. That is the outside drop dead date. We need -- we have to go live by that. We have to negotiate a time line and just agree with our union counterparts, what the last day we would go live. Our hope is to do it much sooner. I know, Ben, would like to do it much sooner. There's only -- the real drivers, there's only a couple of providers for these systems and they have other demand on them as well, so you have to get in line.

是的。是的。而且可能在此之前。傑米，以便您詳盡閱讀我們的協議。那是外部下降截止日期。我們需要——我們必須以此為生。我們必須協商一個時間表，並與我們的工會對應方達成一致，我們將在最後一天上線。我們的希望是早點做到這一點。我知道，本，想早點做。只有 - 真正的驅動程序，這些系統只有幾個供應商，他們對它們也有其他需求，所以你必須排隊。

And then, Jamie, you just try to avoid the peak season. So there's only a handful of months in a year that you actually want to go live. You don't want to be doing it in December, you don't want it to be doing it in peak summer. So that's why these end up taking a little bit longer than everybody would suspect they should.

然後，傑米，你盡量避開旺季。所以一年中只有少數幾個月是你真正想要上線的。你不想在 12 月這樣做，你不想在夏季高峰期這樣做。所以這就是為什麼這些最終花費的時間比每個人都懷疑的要長一些。

Okay. I haven't thought about the peak season aspect. Do you expect -- final question, apologies. When it does go live, do you think it's something we would be able to identify on a -- well on a margin basis. But on an ex fuel CASM basis, I'm sure it matters to you guys, and I'm sure that was a win. I'm just wondering if it rises to the level of materiality for those of us modeling the company.

好的。我還沒有考慮過旺季方面。你期望 - 最後一個問題，道歉。當它上線時，您是否認為這是我們能夠在保證金基礎上識別的東西。但在前燃料 CASM 的基礎上，我相信這對你們很重要，我相信這是一場胜利。我只是想知道它是否上升到我們這些為公司建模的人的重要性水平。

Yes. I think it's something you'll probably have to ask a detailed question of us to give specific number when we get there, but it's not going to be inconsequential and I'm sure you'll hear us at least speak to the benefit of it once it's live, and we're starting to see the benefit. It really cleans up the transitions month-to-month and sort of the conflict drops, as you know. And that can be a significant benefit, both for pilots and for the company on a productivity basis.

是的。我認為當我們到達那裡時，您可能需要向我們提出詳細問題以提供具體數字，但這不會無關緊要，我相信您至少會聽到我們談論它的好處一旦它上線，我們就會開始看到它的好處。如您所知，它確實會逐月清理過渡，並且衝突會有所下降。這對於飛行員和公司來說都是一個顯著的好處，在生產力的基礎上。

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Can we go back to your analyst meeting targets. You said pretax margin, 11% to 13% long-term and above industry peers. Can you guys just remind us, I'm assuming that inflation is coming in a little bit higher than that. So assuming it's still relevant, what are some of the favorable commercial offsets that you guys are envisioning here?

我們可以回到您的分析師會議目標嗎？你說的稅前利潤率，長期在11%到13%，高於行業同行。你們能不能提醒我們一下，我假設通貨膨脹會比這高一點。所以假設它仍然相關，你們在這裡設想的一些有利的商業抵消是什麼？

Yes. I think we're -- as we've talked about all along on the $400 million, of course, inflation has its impact certainly on credit cards, for instance, I mean, we get paid for every swipe, and those swipes are up 7% just inflation alone, give or take. I think what I would say, commercially and Shane and been a hit on it, is what I'm most excited about is that as we worked really hard to reconfigure this business, airplanes, labor that we're going to set ourselves up next year to really operate this airline like a Swiss watch.

是的。我認為我們 - 正如我們一直在談論的 4 億美元，當然，通貨膨脹肯定會對信用卡產生影響，例如，我的意思是，我們每次刷卡都會得到報酬，而且刷卡次數增加了7% 只是通貨膨脹，給予或接受。我想我要說的是，商業和 Shane 並受到了打擊，我最興奮的是，當我們非常努力地重新配置這項業務、飛機、勞動力時，我們將在接下來建立自己真正像瑞士手錶一樣經營這家航空公司。

And I can tell you the revenue goodness that comes from that, the efficiencies that come from that and all the good things that come from that versus what we struggled with this year is really going to come into being. We're going to give you an update on as we continue to look at our initiatives, but overall, I think outside of that, operating this airline efficiently is going to be huge.

我可以告訴你，由此帶來的收入優勢、由此帶來的效率以及由此帶來的所有好處，以及我們今年所面臨的困難，都將真正實現。隨著我們繼續研究我們的舉措，我們將向您提供最新信息，但總的來說，我認為除此之外，有效地運營這家航空公司將是巨大的。

Okay. I appreciate that, Andrew. And I guess along those lines, you guys did talk about earning above your cost of capital. Obviously, that has moved higher this year. How do you think about the long-term growth of the business been? Is it right to still target 4% to 8%, especially with the higher cost base and higher cost capital as well?

好的。我很感激，安德魯。我想沿著這些思路，你們確實談到了高於資本成本的收入。顯然，這一數字在今年有所上升。您如何看待業務的長期增長？仍然以 4% 到 8% 為目標是否正確，尤其是在成本基礎和成本資本較高的情況下？

Yes. Ben can jump in on this. I think, Brandon, we're sort of fortunate I think the equity valuation we'll have to see over time what the cost of equity is. On the debt side, we still have a very, very low cost of capital. And because of our cash position, we don't need to access capital markets anytime soon. So I think on the debt side, we feel incredibly sound in terms of the ability to finance ourselves going forward.

是的。本可以參與其中。我認為，布蘭登，我們有點幸運，我認為隨著時間的推移，股權估值我們將不得不看到股權成本是多少。在債務方面，我們的資本成本仍然非常非常低。而且由於我們的現金狀況，我們不需要很快進入資本市場。所以我認為在債務方面，我們在未來為自己融資的能力方面感覺非常好。

You know our balance sheet story if anybody should and can be investing, it's us. And I think there's still a lot of like demand that we feel like we could be taking in our core markets that are highly accretive in terms of returns above cost of capital, but Ben can speak to the longer-term sort of plan.

如果有人應該並且可以投資，你知道我們的資產負債表故事，那就是我們。而且我認為仍然有很多類似的需求，我們覺得我們可以進入我們的核心市場，這些市場在回報高於資本成本方面具有高度的增值性，但本可以談論長期計劃。

Yes. I think our long-term plan is still to grow until 2025. We have a great order book from Boeing, which we plan to execute. So I think exactly what Shane said. I think we're on track for that and feel good about the long-term growth. .

是的。我認為我們的長期計劃仍然是增長到 2025 年。我們有來自波音公司的大量訂單，我們計劃執行。所以我認為Shane所說的正是如此。我認為我們正朝著這個方向前進，並且對長期增長感覺良好。 .

Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just in 2Q, you talked a fair bit about the alliance initiatives and I don't think I heard much about that this quarter. And I would just assume that from Oneworld in particular, you would see a huge benefit given like international is coming back in a major way. So if you could just kind of update us where you're at with that.

就在第二季度，你談到了聯盟計劃，我認為本季度我聽到的不多。我只是假設，特別是從 Oneworld，你會看到一個巨大的好處，比如國際化正在以一種主要的方式回歸。所以，如果你能告訴我們你的最新情況。

Conor, thanks for the question. It's Nath Pieper. I think -- you go back to why Alaska joined Oneworld and why we were so eager to do that. And sure, it's to participate in international flows and be able to offer our guests the ability to carry their loyalty benefits, carry their status in our mileage program and get any place on the globe that they wanted to go, either on our airplanes or on somebody else's. And so as international traffic has come back, Europe, especially we're seeing real tangible benefits from that.

康納，謝謝你的問題。是內斯·皮珀。我想——你可以回到阿拉斯加加入寰宇一家的原因，以及為什麼我們如此渴望這樣做。當然，這是為了參與國際流動，並能夠為我們的客人提供他們的忠誠度福利，在我們的里程計劃中保持他們的身份，並獲得他們想去的任何地方，無論是在我們的飛機上還是在別人的。因此，隨著國際流量的恢復，歐洲，尤其是我們看到了真正的實實在在的好處。

Year-over-year, we're up 40% from a contribution perspective from these partnerships. And I think the second benefit to it, which is harder to see in the P&L is really keeping our most important guests within the Alaska family, whether it's on our airplanes domestically or it's using their Oneworld partners that have their loyalty status, we're not losing those passengers, our most important guests, to our critical competitors here in the Pacific Northwest anymore because we've got a global network that we can sell and market as our own.

從這些合作夥伴的貢獻的角度來看，我們同比增長了 40%。而且我認為它的第二個好處，在損益表中很難看到，真的是讓我們最重要的客人留在阿拉斯加大家庭中，無論是在我們國內的飛機上，還是使用他們擁有忠誠度的 Oneworld 合作夥伴，我們不再將這些乘客，我們最重要的客人，丟給我們在太平洋西北地區的關鍵競爭對手，因為我們擁有一個可以作為我們自己的銷售和營銷的全球網絡。

Great. And then just on the cost structure, I mean a lot of noise going on. I'm not trying to get the labor stuff. But when I think about Alaska historically, it's always about really highly productive employees. The world is different now. The productivity has probably changed in the last. So I'm just curious on how you get back to high productivity levels that you had historically. Like to me, is it really just a function of capacity? Or is there something else at play there?

偉大的。然後就成本結構而言，我的意思是很多噪音正在發生。我不是想得到勞動力的東西。但是當我從歷史上考慮阿拉斯加時，它總是關於真正高效的員工。現在世界不同了。生產力可能在最後發生了變化。所以我很好奇你是如何恢復到歷史上的高生產力水平的。像我一樣，它真的只是容量的函數嗎？或者那裡還有其他東西在起作用？

Yes. Connor, thanks. A couple of things that I think were unique to COVID and transient and time will tell us if there's a new normal or not. But one as we were reramping, we were having to hire larger volumes than we've ever had and get those folks through training, that is all a sort of relative drag to our normal staffing posture. And then we had incredibly high attrition, which every airline has seen and every industry has really seen.

是的。康納，謝謝。我認為 COVID 獨有的幾件事是短暫的，時間會告訴我們是否有新常態。但是當我們重新調整時，我們不得不僱傭比以往更多的人，並讓這些人接受培訓，這對我們正常的人員配置來說是一種相對的拖累。然後我們出現了令人難以置信的高流失率，這是每家航空公司和每個行業都真正看到的。

And so -- those 2 things, I think, stabilize over time for the economy and for us, we're in a much more stable place today. And I think you go back to the sort of more normalized training, a complement in terms of overall staffing as we get through 2023 and beyond. And then as I had mentioned sort of in my script, we carried -- we didn't reduce our staffing levels at all even though we took 6 or 7 or 8 points out of the system for the second half of the year. So we've got the people we need to do a lot of this growth next year. There's still a lot of hiring that has to happen because of attrition -- but we're in a really good place.

所以——我認為，這兩件事會隨著時間的推移對經濟和我們來說穩定下來，我們今天處於一個更加穩定的地方。而且我認為你會回到那種更規範化的培訓，在我們度過 2023 年及以後的整體人員配備方面的補充。然後正如我在劇本中提到的那樣，我們進行了——即使我們在下半年從系統中拿走了 6 或 7 或 8 分，我們也沒有減少我們的人員配備水平。所以我們已經有了我們需要的人來做很多明年的增長。由於人員流失，仍然需要進行大量招聘——但我們處於一個非常好的位置。

Whereas last year, we were trying to hire just in time to meet the new capacity. And then we get hit with the COVID wave and people would be sick and absent and we couldn't operate. And so we, like others in the industry have totally done a 180 on that. We're now carrying more people than we need and it's time to go get the growth in the ASMs and the air and enjoy the productivity benefit from that. I don't know if we'll get back to pre-2019 productivity. I don't know if there's like a new normal of absenteeism, but we're going to be much better than we are today as we get into next year and beyond.

而去年，我們試圖及時招聘以滿足新的產能。然後我們受到 COVID 浪潮的打擊，人們會生病和缺席，我們無法運作。因此，我們和業內其他人一樣，在這方面已經完成了 180 次。我們現在運載的人比我們需要的要多，是時候讓 ASM 和空中增長，並從中享受生產力的好處。我不知道我們是否會恢復到 2019 年之前的生產力。我不知道是否會出現曠工的新常態，但隨著我們進入明年及以後，我們將比今天好得多。

But I just want to add, Conor, like this company has a low-cost mindset. We're building budgets now that we're going to build productivity targets into the budgets. And we just -- we're setting the company up for 2023. I mean the labor deals -- we got 5 labor deals done this year. We're getting the single fleet done and behind us where there's a capacity drag on us. But heading into 2023, this company is going to go back to where we were in terms of this low cost, high productivity, low overhead mindset.

但我只想補充一點，康納，這家公司有一種低成本的心態。我們現在正在建立預算，因為我們將在預算中建立生產力目標。我們只是 - 我們正在為 2023 年設立公司。我的意思是勞務交易 - 今年我們完成了 5 份勞務交易。我們正在完成單個艦隊，並在我們身後拖累我們的能力。但進入 2023 年，這家公司將回到我們以前的低成本、高生產力、低開銷的心態。

Our next question comes from Helane Becker from Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Helane Becker。

So as you think about the record revenue that you're reporting and your guidance for the fourth quarter and maybe how you're thinking about 23%. How are you thinking about where revenue can go over the next few years? Like do you have a new target for where you think you can see that number.

因此，當您考慮您報告的創紀錄收入和第四季度的指導時，也許您對 23% 的看法。您如何看待未來幾年的收入可以去哪裡？比如你有一個新的目標，你認為你可以在哪裡看到這個數字。

Yes, Helane, I think I've said on previous calls, I think we can learn a lot about revenue as much as we thought we did. We learned a lot more during COVID. And I think my team specifically I think just the way our network and RM team works together is at a different place. I think on the corporate side, we're in a different place. I think, on the alliances and partnerships. We're in a different place. We're working a lot on the distribution. And again, we are very, very focused on initiatives and generating more revenue I think our natural, we're going to be a growth airline.

是的，Helane，我想我在之前的電話會議上說過，我認為我們可以像我們想像的那樣了解很多關於收入的知識。我們在 COVID 期間學到了很多東西。我認為我的團隊特別是我認為我們的網絡和 RM 團隊一起工作的方式是不同的。我認為在企業方面，我們處於不同的位置。我認為，關於聯盟和夥伴關係。我們在不同的地方。我們在分發方面做了很多工作。再說一次，我們非常非常專注於計劃並產生更多收入，我認為我們很自然，我們將成為一家成長型航空公司。

That's what we do, and we're going to be well positioned to do that, both on the capacity side, but I still believe -- as I personally look at all of this, that there is upside on our products, our types of products and especially, I don't think we fully untapped the loyalty and the card growth. And I think there's a lot of goodness there. So all these things we know going forward that there will be a step change in costs on an absolute basis, mostly because of labor, and we're going to go get that on the revenue side.

這就是我們所做的，我們將做好準備，無論是在產能方面，但我仍然相信——當我個人看待這一切時，我們的產品、我們的類型產品，尤其是，我認為我們還沒有完全開發忠誠度和卡的增長。我認為那裡有很多好處。因此，我們所知道的所有這些事情都將在絕對基礎上發生成本變化，主要是因為勞動力，我們將在收入方面實現這一點。

And Helane, what I'll add is, regardless of what the revenue environment does, and I do think it will change for the better. We still need to focus on what we've done so well for 2 decades is a highly efficient, low-cost operation highly productive. Those things benefit you in a good revenue environment or a not-so-good revenue environment. So those are things that we're getting back to and Andrew, of course, everything Andy said makes sense.

Helane，我要補充的是，無論收入環境如何，我確實認為它會變得更好。我們仍然需要專注於我們在 2 年中做得如此出色的是高效、低成本、高產的運營。在良好的收入環境或不太好的收入環境中，這些事情都會使您受益。所以這些是我們要回到的事情，安德魯，當然，安迪所說的一切都是有道理的。

And our last question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna Financial Group.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Susquehanna Financial Group 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

So I just want to -- the 6% to 9% pretax margin guide with the new pilot contract or these 3 new deals. So could you help us square that versus the moving pieces of the 4 to 8 ASM guide? And also, any -- it sounds like you're fairly confident around the order book. But if there are delays, how does that change the mix that you outlined last year on the 70% frequencies, 5% stage? Or perhaps more importantly, the 10% new markets.

所以我只想 - 新試點合同或這 3 項新交易的 6% 到 9% 的稅前保證金指南。那麼，您能否幫助我們將其與 4 到 8 ASM 指南的移動部分相提並論？而且，任何 - 聽起來你對訂單簿相當有信心。但是，如果有延遲，這將如何改變您去年在 70% 頻率、5% 階段概述的混音？或者更重要的是，10% 的新市場。

Are you just planning right now with these new deals at 6% to 9% for some level of sustained momentum in yields or the benefit of the operating leverage you referenced as your utilization returns in the first half of next year?

您現在是否只是計劃以 6% 至 9% 的利率進行這些新交易，以實現一定程度的收益率持續增長勢頭，或者您提到的運營槓桿的好處，即明年上半年的利用率回報？

Yes. I'd make sure I try to answer each of those. On the delivery stream. I'll tell you when we do give you guys guidance on capacity for next year, it will be appropriately buffered for what Boeing believes they can deliver versus what we may plan for them to deliver. And so we'll build upside in if they actually hit the delivery dates they're telling us, that would be a benefit to us and would give us the ability to add some incremental ASMs. We're not going to overstress the system and assume every delivery comes on the exact day, even though we know that they're trying hard to do that.

是的。我會確保我嘗試回答每一個問題。在交付流上。我會告訴你們，當我們確實為你們提供明年的產能指導時，它將適當緩衝波音認為他們可以交付的內容與我們可能計劃為他們交付的內容。因此，如果他們真的達到了他們告訴我們的交付日期，我們將建立上行空間，這將對我們有利，並使我們能夠添加一些增量 ASM。我們不會過分強調系統並假設每次交付都在確切的日子到來，即使我們知道他們正在努力做到這一點。

So we'll be really confident in our ability to operate the schedule that we tell you guys we're going to next year. I think it's both. I think primarily, we look to get the cost structure moving in the right direction, get costs going back down, which will be a big sort of tailwind to margin. And yes, I think right now, we do expect the revenue environment to be different than pre-COVID for a period of time. I think, structurally, there's relative to the size of GDP or demand, I think supply continues to be constrained and our teams continue to do a good job understanding the revenue environment and getting appropriate yields and pricing in it.

因此，我們將對我們告訴你們明年我們將要執行的時間表進行操作的能力非常有信心。我認為兩者兼而有之。我認為主要是，我們希望讓成本結構朝著正確的方向發展，讓成本回落，這對利潤率來說是一個很大的順風。是的，我認為現在，我們確實預計收入環境在一段時間內會與疫情前有所不同。我認為，在結構上，相對於 GDP 或需求的規模，我認為供應繼續受到限制，我們的團隊繼續做好對收入環境的了解，並在其中獲得適當的收益和定價。

So I think both are going to help drive us. But really, we were sort of talking to you guys at Investor Day prior to a lot of this inflation stuff coming in. And we knew that labor was going to reset. We knew where we were in the market. We had a sense of where it was going. And when we laid out our long term targets, we specifically put together a strategy on both the cost and the commercial side to make sure we could get into those ranges long term. So nothing has changed for us from that perspective. We're going to deliver what we told you guys at Investor Day and get to these margin targets.

所以我認為兩者都會幫助推動我們。但實際上，在很多通脹因素出現之前，我們在投資者日與你們進行了交談。我們知道勞動力將會重置。我們知道我們在市場上的位置。我們對它的去向有所了解。當我們制定長期目標時，我們特別制定了成本和商業方面的戰略，以確保我們能夠長期進入這些範圍。因此，從這個角度來看，我們沒有任何改變。我們將兌現我們在投資者日告訴你們的內容，並達到這些保證金目標。

Okay. And just a follow-up here. The 4 points on the structural labor side, is that just the base rate piece. I think you said that the ratification bonus and look back for September in 3Q and then Part B, should we assume that we would see elevated PBP accruals into -- or for full year 2023.

好的。這裡只是一個跟進。結構性勞動力方面的 4 點，只是基本費率部分。我認為您說過批准獎金並在第三季度回顧 9 月，然後再回顧 B 部分，我們是否應該假設我們會看到 PBP 應計增加 - 或 2023 年全年。

Yes. The 4 points represents all the labor deals we've done to date. And just as a reminder, in 3Q, the wage rate increase back to September 1 for our mainline pilot deal is in OpEx, the sort of lump sum bonuses in special. What was the second part of the question?

是的。 4 分代表我們迄今為止所做的所有勞務交易。提醒一下，在第三季度，我們的主線試點交易的工資率增加至 9 月 1 日是運營支出，即特殊的一次性獎金。問題的第二部分是什麼？

Too soon to tell. I mean I think we have a strong commitment to being 1 of the best margin producers in the industry, and we believe if we do that, our employees should benefit through the PBP -- PBP program. We do think it drives a lot of alignment. I think that's been proven out over a number of years, and it's appropriate to recognize folks when they're working hard and achieving.

說得太早了。我的意思是我認為我們堅定地致力於成為業內最好的利潤生產商之一，我們相信如果我們這樣做，我們的員工應該從 PBP - PBP 計劃中受益。我們確實認為它推動了很多一致性。我認為多年來已經證明了這一點，當人們努力工作並取得成就時，認可他們是適當的。

But the Board sets those goals, they do that and sort of as we get through the end of the year, so it's too early to know where we'll come out on that for next year. My strong inclination is the goals will be a little tougher next year than they were this year, and we'll have to work harder to get to them.

但是董事會設定了這些目標，他們這樣做了，並且在我們度過了年底的時候，所以現在知道明年我們會在哪裡提出這些目標還為時過早。我的強烈傾向是明年的目標會比今年更艱難，我們必須更加努力地實現目標。

Thank you, everyone. That marks the end of our third quarter earnings call. .

謝謝大家。這標誌著我們第三季度財報電話會議的結束。 .

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。