阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加阿拉斯加航空集團 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音中，將來可以在 alaskaair.com 上播放。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Emily Halverson.

我現在想將電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團的財務副總裁 Emily Halverson。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release, which is available at investor.alaskaair.com. On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝接線員，早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告，可在investor.alaskaair.com 上獲取。在今天的通話中，您將聽到 Ben、Andrew 和 Shane 的最新消息。在電話的問答部分，我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在線回答您的問題。

This morning, Air Group reported second quarter GAAP net income of $139 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $280 million. As a reminder, our comments today will include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results. Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found in our SEC filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we have provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release.

今天上午，Air Group 報告第二季度 GAAP 淨收入為 1.39 億美元。不包括特殊項目和按市值計價的燃料對沖調整，Air Group 報告調整後的淨收入為 2.8 億美元。提醒一下，我們今天的評論將包括關於未來業績的前瞻性陳述，這可能與我們的實際結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的信息可以在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的收益和單位成本，不包括燃料。和往常一樣，我們在今天的收益發布中提供了最直接可比的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬。

Over to you, Ben.

交給你了，本。

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Our performance this quarter continues to demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model and ability to adapt to a rapidly evolving external environment. We are in a period of record-breaking demand, which is reflected in the solid Q2 results we reported this morning.

謝謝，艾米麗，大家早上好。我們本季度的表現繼續展示了我們商業模式的潛在實力和適應快速變化的外部環境的能力。我們正處於需求破紀錄的時期，這反映在我們今天上午報告的穩健的第二季度業績中。

Our 14% second quarter pretax margin lands us near the top of the industry. A remarkable achievement, given the fact that fuel expense is up 65% versus the same period in 2019. June especially was a phenomenal month as revenue surpassed $1 billion, the highest monthly revenue recorded in our history. And we achieved this on capacity still below 2019 levels.

我們第二季度 14% 的稅前利潤率使我們接近行業前列。鑑於燃料費用與 2019 年同期相比增長了 65%，這是一項了不起的成就。尤其是 6 月是一個非凡的月份，收入超過 10 億美元，是我們歷史上記錄的最高月度收入。我們在產能仍低於 2019 年水平的情況下實現了這一目標。

Bank cash remuneration increased 40% in June, demonstrating the power of our renewed credit card deal and the strength of our terrific partnership with Bank of America. And lastly, we generated record revenue from our airline partnerships during the month representing over 8% of coupon revenue, an exciting result given that international and business travel haven't fully unlocked yet.

銀行現金報酬在 6 月份增長了 40%，顯示了我們續簽信用卡交易的力量以及我們與美國銀行的良好合作夥伴關係的實力。最後，我們在本月通過航空公司合作夥伴創造了創紀錄的收入，佔優惠券收入的 8% 以上，鑑於國際和商務旅行尚未完全解鎖，這是一個令人興奮的結果。

Meeting these historic levels of demand is both exciting and challenging and we are rising to the occasion. June is proof of this, marking an important turnaround in our operation as we were at or near the top of the industry in both on-time performance and completion rate for the month, with this trend continuing into July.

滿足這些歷史性的需求水平既令人興奮又充滿挑戰，我們正在迎難而上。六月就是證明，這標誌著我們的運營發生了重要轉變，因為我們在當月的準時表現和完成率方面處於或接近行業的頂端，這種趨勢一直持續到 7 月。

Our fundamental commitment to our guests and our people is to run a safe, reliable, on-time airline. It's that simple, and we will continue to prioritize those requirements as we move forward.

我們對客人和員工的基本承諾是運營安全、可靠、準時的航空公司。就這麼簡單，我們將在前進的過程中繼續優先考慮這些要求。

I'm very proud of the turnaround our team of 23,000 has delivered over the past 2 months, and I want to extend my thanks to all of them. This is a complex industry that has become more challenging lately. Our team has persevered, met new challenges with professionalism and care and continues to put their best into the company and operation each day.

我為我們 23,000 人的團隊在過去 2 個月中實現的轉變感到非常自豪，我要向他們所有人表示感謝。這是一個複雜的行業，最近變得更具挑戰性。我們的團隊堅持不懈，以專業和細心迎接新的挑戰，每天都在公司和運營中盡最大努力。

This year, we are celebrating our 90th year as an airline, which is a remarkable accomplishment for any business, but especially in this industry. To celebrate our remarkable people, we issued 90,000 miles to Air Group employees that they can use to fly with us or anywhere our oneworld and other partners' fly.

今年，我們正在慶祝我們作為一家航空公司成立 90 週年，這對任何企業來說都是一項了不起的成就，尤其是在這個行業。為了慶祝我們傑出的員工，我們向 Air Group 員工發放了 90,000 里程，他們可以使用這些里程搭乘我們的航班，或者搭乘我們的 oneworld 和其他合作夥伴的航班。

Now let me briefly outline some areas that are going well for us, along with the challenges we continue to manage through. Of course, demand is a bright spot as guests take summer vacations and get out to visit friends and family and business travel continues to return. Andrew will talk more about demand, including what we're seeing into Q3 and growing revenue contribution from our credit card as well as our domestic and international partners, which is great to see.

現在讓我簡要概述一些對我們來說進展順利的領域，以及我們繼續應對的挑戰。當然，隨著客人暑假外出探親訪友，商務旅行不斷回歸，需求是一個亮點。安德魯將更多地談論需求，包括我們在第三季度看到的情況以及我們的信用卡以及我們的國內和國際合作夥伴不斷增長的收入貢獻，這很高興看到。

We continue hiring at a rapid pace and are consistently meeting our hiring goals. We are currently at our target staffing levels across most work groups and locations. Our transition towards a single fleet remains on track. Our MAX fleet continues to grow, while the A320s and Q400s will be fully retired by early 2023, followed by the A321s at the end of 2023.

我們繼續快速招聘，並始終如一地實現我們的招聘目標。我們目前在大多數工作組和地點都處於我們的目標人員配置水平。我們向單一機隊的過渡仍在進行中。我們的 MAX 機隊繼續增長，而 A320 和 Q400 將於 2023 年初全面退役，A321 將於 2023 年底全面退役。

This quarter, we also reached a tentative agreement with the International Association of Machinists, who represent 5,000 customer service, stores, reservations, ramp and clerical agents. The TA is undergoing ratification voting and provides raises for our people and an extension of the current contract by 2 years to 2026. We look forward to reaching new contracts with both our Alaska and Horizon pilots as well.

本季度，我們還與代表 5,000 名客戶服務、商店、預訂、坡道和文員代理的國際機械師協會達成了初步協議。 TA 正在進行批准投票，並為我們的員工提供加薪，並將當前合同延長 2 年至 2026 年。我們也期待與我們的阿拉斯加和地平線飛行員達成新合同。

Finally, our relative financial performance is strong, which is our commitment to owners. Year-to-date, we've generated $1.2 billion in cash flow from operations with $600 million in free cash flow.

最後，我們的相對財務表現強勁，這是我們對業主的承諾。年初至今，我們已經從運營中產生了 12 億美元的現金流和 6 億美元的自由現金流。

On the challenge front, fuel costs remain an issue for the industry. Our hedges continued to dampen the impact for us, and we expect our full year hedge benefit to be approximately $200 million based on the forward curve as of July 18.

在挑戰方面，燃料成本仍然是該行業的一個問題。我們的對沖繼續抑制對我們的影響，根據截至 7 月 18 日的遠期曲線，我們預計全年對沖收益約為 2 億美元。

Pilot attrition is another challenge we are attentive to across Alaska, Horizon and SkyWest. Attrition is most acute at our regional carriers and is a constraint across the industry. This is evidenced by industry regional capacity that is down 20% to 30% versus 2019 as mainline carriers hire pilots at unprecedented levels.

飛行員減員是我們在阿拉斯加、地平線和 SkyWest 關注的另一個挑戰。減員在我們的區域運營商中最為嚴重，並且是整個行業的製約因素。與 2019 年相比，行業區域運力下降 20% 至 30% 證明了這一點，因為乾線航空公司以前所未有的水平僱用飛行員。

And lastly, as is the case for the entire economy, supply chains remain disrupted by the pandemic. We are working with key partners closer than ever before and will be more conservative in planning our operation and capacity until we see higher levels of stability and predictability. Our aircraft, engine and component partners are working extraordinarily hard and will continue to support them in their efforts.

最後，與整個經濟的情況一樣，供應鏈仍然受到大流行的干擾。我們與主要合作夥伴的合作比以往任何時候都更緊密，並且在規劃我們的運營和容量時會更加保守，直到我們看到更高水平的穩定性和可預測性。我們的飛機、發動機和零部件合作夥伴正在非常努力地工作，並將繼續支持他們的努力。

As we look forward, we are committed to producing strong financial results this year while also priming our company for success in 2023 and beyond. I am excited about what we can deliver on this front over the next few years. We are growing our fleet with new efficient aircraft within an improved competitive network, and we're expanding global connections through our partnerships.

展望未來，我們致力於在今年創造強勁的財務業績，同時也為我們公司在 2023 年及以後的成功做好準備。我對未來幾年我們在這方面的成果感到興奮。我們正在改進的競爭網絡中使用新的高效飛機來發展我們的機隊，並且我們正在通過我們的合作夥伴關係擴大全球聯繫。

Our relative cost advantage remains intact despite industry headwinds overall, and our focus on enabling structural cost improvements and our move to single fleet will be a powerful enabler for us going forward. And finally, we've unlocked commercial levers that are already materializing and are set to drive incremental benefit for us over the next few years.

儘管整體行業面臨逆風，但我們的相對成本優勢仍然保持不變，我們專注於實現結構成本改進和向單一車隊的轉變將成為我們前進的強大推動力。最後，我們解鎖了已經實現的商業槓桿，並將在未來幾年為我們帶來更多收益。

We have all the elements in place to continue to drive sustainable and profitable growth here at Air Group, and we are setting ourselves up to continue to deliver industry-leading financial results as we have done so for so many years.

我們擁有所有要素，可以繼續推動 Air Group 的可持續和盈利增長，並且我們正在為繼續提供行業領先的財務業績做好準備，就像我們多年來所做的那樣。

To wrap up, demand in the short term remains robust despite real headwinds that exist in the economy and our industry today. Headwinds like the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high fuel prices, high inflation and a potential recession. And even with these negative factors, we still expect to deliver strong financial performance this year with double-digit pretax margins in the third quarter as well as our 6% to 9% full year pretax margin.

總而言之，儘管當今經濟和我們的行業存在真正的逆風，但短期內的需求仍然強勁。烏克蘭戰爭、頑固的高油價、高通脹和潛在的衰退等不利因素。即使存在這些負面因素，我們仍預計今年第三季度的稅前利潤率將達到兩位數，全年稅前利潤率將達到 6% 至 9%，從而實現強勁的財務業績。

As anyone who has been in the airline industry for a period of time learned, long-term success only comes from taking one step at a time. The strategic steps we've taken, streamlining our business, moving to a single fleet and capitalizing on commercial opportunities are set to make Air Group a stronger company, positioning us well in any environment.

任何在航空業工作了一段時間的人都知道，長期的成功只能來自一步一步。我們所採取的戰略步驟、精簡業務、轉向單一機隊和利用商業機會將使 Air Group 成為一家更強大的公司，使我們在任何環境中都處於有利地位。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will focus on second quarter results, our third quarter guidance as well as progress on commercial initiatives.

謝謝，本，大家早上好。我今天的評論將集中在第二季度的業績、我們的第三季度指導以及商業計劃的進展上。

I want to start with a tremendous revenue result for the quarter. This was the highest revenue-generating quarter in our history. Second quarter revenues totaled $2.7 billion, demonstrating the swift change in environment compared to how we started the year. Second quarter revenue was up 16% on capacity that was down 8%, leading to an impressive 26% increase in unit revenues. Very strong demand, coupled with reduced industry capacity, resulted in Air Group flying record load factors for all 3 months of the quarter; April at 87%, May at 87.5% and June finishing at 89.6%.

我想從本季度的巨大收入開始。這是我們歷史上創收最高的季度。第二季度收入總計 27 億美元，與年初相比，環境發生了迅速變化。第二季度收入增長了 16%，而產能下降了 8%，導致單位收入增長了 26%，令人印象深刻。非常強勁的需求，加上行業運力下降，導致航空集團在本季度所有 3 個月的飛行載客率創紀錄； 4 月為 87%，5 月為 87.5%，6 月為 89.6%。

Yield increased over 20 points from April to June, and we outperformed our own midpoint guidance for the quarter by 3 percentage points. I'm also excited to share that May marked the first-time revenues from our business channels exceeded pre-pandemic levels, a testament to our partnership with Amex GBT, American Airlines and the resilience of our small and medium business customers. We saw revenue strength across all regions. And from a product perspective, premium revenues continued to accelerate from the first quarter.

從 4 月到 6 月，收益率增加了 20 多個百分點，我們在本季度的中點指引高出 3 個百分點。我也很高興與大家分享，5 月份我們的業務渠道收入首次超過了大流行前的水平，這證明了我們與美國運通 GBT、美國航空公司的合作夥伴關係以及我們的中小型企業客戶的韌性。我們看到所有地區的收入都表現強勁。而從產品的角度來看，溢價收入從第一季度開始持續加速。

For this quarter, both first class and premium class revenues were up 30% with paid load factor up 8 points in first and 16 points in premium versus 2019. We offer a fantastic premium product, which aligns well with our long, average stage length for a domestic carrier. Today, premium seats account for about 1/4 of our total seats and this mix will only continue to improve as we retire the A320s and bring on the MAX 9, which will have 11% more premium seating.

本季度，頭等艙和頭等艙收入均增長 30%，與 2019 年相比，頭等艙和高級艙的付費載客率分別提高了 8 個百分點和 16 個百分點。我們提供了出色的優質產品，這與我們長期的平均階段長度非常吻合國內運營商。今天，高級座位約占我們總座位的 1/4，隨著我們淘汰 A320 並引入 MAX 9，這種組合只會繼續改善，MAX 9 的高級座位將增加 11%。

As we shared with you at Investor Day, our loyalty program and Bank of America card was going to be a revenue and profit accelerant. Q2 is proof of this. Cash remuneration from the bank this quarter was up 43%, while total loyalty revenues were up 58% versus the second quarter of 2019, both primarily driven by strong bank commissions and mileage plan redemptions.

正如我們在投資者日與您分享的那樣，我們的忠誠度計劃和美國銀行卡將成為收入和利潤的促進劑。 Q2 就是證明。本季度來自銀行的現金薪酬增長了 43%，而忠誠度總收入與 2019 年第二季度相比增長了 58%，這主要得益於強勁的銀行佣金和里程計劃兌換。

As we've shared, approximately $195 million of my team's 400 million commercial initiatives relates to product and loyalty. We expect to recognize approximately 70% or $135 million of the revenue from this initiative in our P&L this year.

正如我們所分享的，在我團隊的 4 億項商業計劃中，約有 1.95 億美元與產品和忠誠度有關。我們預計今年將在我們的損益表中確認該計劃帶來的大約 70% 或 1.35 億美元的收入。

And lastly, we get to talk about meaningful results from our oneworld membership. As global travel restrictions have eased and international travel rebounds strongly, we've been encouraged by the incremental revenue we saw this quarter. In June, our alliance relationship drove a record amount of revenue, representing approximately 8% of total coupon revenue, as Ben mentioned earlier. This is a full 2-point increase over 2019.

最後，我們將討論 oneworld 會員資格帶來的有意義的成果。隨著全球旅行限制的放鬆和國際旅行的強勁反彈，我們對本季度看到的收入增加感到鼓舞。正如 Ben 之前提到的，6 月份，我們的聯盟關係帶來了創紀錄的收入，約佔總票面收入的 8%。這比 2019 年增加了 2 個百分點。

We are currently revisiting our revenue estimates from oneworld and our partners because if June volumes are indicative of what we will see going forward, we will need to revise our internal forecasts upwards.

我們目前正在重新審視 oneworld 和我們的合作夥伴的收入預測，因為如果 6 月的銷量預示著我們將看到的未來，我們將需要上調我們的內部預測。

Looking ahead, we are well positioned to produce another solid financial quarter. Undoubtedly, we are in an exceptional demand period and the moderated capacity outlook sets a strong backdrop for our revenue performance. Considering current trends, which I'll expand on in a minute, we expect third quarter revenues to be up 16% to 19% on capacity that is down 5% to 8% versus 2019. This implies unit revenues up approximately 26%, flat sequentially versus the second quarter but a strong result on slightly higher capacity.

展望未來，我們有能力創造另一個穩健的財務季度。毫無疑問，我們正處於一個特殊的需求時期，產能前景放緩為我們的收入表現奠定了堅實的背景。考慮到當前趨勢（我將在一分鐘內詳細介紹），我們預計第三季度收入將增長 16% 至 19%，而產能較 2019 年下降 5% 至 8%。這意味著單位收入增長約 26%，持平與第二季度相比，但由於產能略高而表現強勁。

With that guidance provided, I do want to offer more color on the trends we're seeing today, which are factored into these estimates. For clarity, demand remains very strong. Leisure demand continues to sit well above 2019 levels, while our business channels have now recovered fully revenue wise.

通過提供該指導，我確實想為我們今天看到的趨勢提供更多色彩，這些趨勢已納入這些估計。為了清楚起見，需求仍然非常強勁。休閒需求繼續遠高於 2019 年的水平，而我們的業務渠道現在已經完全恢復了收入。

While corporate business travel volumes have been a little choppy, we do expect these volumes to continue to recover from their approximate 75% to 80% levels today. That said, we do recognize that there are significant pressures on consumers, including rising interest rates, high oil prices and inflation, which if persists, are likely to put downward pressure on demand and therefore, pricing from where we are today as we enter the fall.

雖然企業商務旅行量有點波動，但我們確實預計這些量將繼續從目前的大約 75% 恢復到 80% 的水平。儘管如此，我們確實認識到消費者面臨著巨大的壓力，包括利率上升、高油價和通貨膨脹，如果這種壓力持續下去，很可能會給需求帶來下行壓力，因此，當我們進入市場時，我們會從今天的價格開始定價。落下。

There was a very aggressive run-up in yield during the second quarter. And while we look to have peaked in yields, new bookings remain at historically high yields just not as high as the past few weeks.

第二季度收益率出現了非常激進的增長。雖然我們預計收益率已經見頂，但新訂單仍處於歷史高位，只是沒有過去幾週那麼高。

Touching on capacity for a moment. Our regional partners, like all others across the industry continue to face pilot staffing and training challenges. Compared to 2019, approximately 35% of our CPA block hours have been removed from the rest of 2022, impacting our second half capacity by approximately 3 points. We expect these headwinds to persist well into 2023.

暫時觸及容量。我們的區域合作夥伴與整個行業的所有其他合作夥伴一樣，繼續面臨試點人員配備和培訓挑戰。與 2019 年相比，我們從 2022 年剩餘時間中刪除了大約 35% 的 CPA 塊小時，對我們下半年的產能影響了大約 3 個百分點。我們預計這些不利因素將持續到 2023 年。

Apart from accelerating the retirement of our Q400 fleet, we've also taken several proactive network steps to mitigate the impact of this lost capacity. First, we've pivoted to mainline flying where we've had previously operated regional aircraft. Second, by reducing day of week capacity in long, stage length regional markets. And then third, in a limited number of markets, suspending service through next spring, in no instances have we exited any cities.

除了加速 Q400 機隊的退役之外，我們還採取了一些積極的網絡措施來減輕這種容量損失的影響。首先，我們已經轉向了以前運營支線飛機的干線飛行。其次，通過減少長期、階段性區域市場的每週日容量。第三，在有限數量的市場中，在明年春天之前暫停服務，我們在任何情況下都沒有離開任何城市。

Touching on mainline with the delivery of our 28th MAX last month, our MAX aircraft now represents 16% of mainline capacity. As our fleet grows, we're ready to take advantage of the up-gauging opportunities by putting more seats into core hubs like Seattle, where we now offer 100 nonstop destinations, which is 2x that of our competitors.

上個月交付了我們的第 28 架 MAX，觸及乾線，我們的 MAX 飛機現在佔幹線容量的 16%。隨著我們機隊的增長，我們已準備好通過在西雅圖等核心樞紐中增加座位來利用升級機會，我們現在提供 100 個直達目的地，是我們競爭對手的 2 倍。

We've worked hard over the last several years in transitioning our company to enable profitable growth post pandemic, which includes a tangible commercial roadmap that we expect will deliver $400 million in incremental revenue over the next several years, and we are off to a very strong start. We have a solid fleet plan, high-quality hubs well placed across the West Coast, a growing loyalty program and expansive partnerships for our guests to serve the destinations that we cannot.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在努力使公司轉型，以實現大流行後的盈利增長，其中包括一個切實的商業路線圖，我們預計該路線圖將在未來幾年內帶來 4 億美元的增量收入，而且我們正朝著一個非常強勢開局。我們擁有可靠的機隊計劃、遍布西海岸的優質樞紐、不斷增長的忠誠度計劃和廣泛的合作夥伴關係，讓我們的客人能夠為我們無法到達的目的地提供服務。

And with that, I'll pass it to Shane.

有了這個，我會把它交給Shane。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results highlight a dramatic turnaround in our financial performance, especially given the significant losses we experienced to start the year.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。我們的第二季度業績突顯了我們財務業績的顯著轉變，特別是考慮到我們年初經歷的重大虧損。

Our adjusted profit this quarter in absolute dollar terms was higher than 2019 on record revenue for Air Group. Our teams have done a great job managing the revenue side of the ledger as demand returned quickly after this winter's Omicron wave.

我們本季度以絕對美元計算的調整後利潤高於 2019 年航空集團創紀錄的收入。我們的團隊在管理分類賬的收入方面做得很好，因為在今年冬天的 Omicron 浪潮之後需求迅速恢復。

More importantly, our operation has stabilized, and we have returned to running an airline with high completion factors and high on-time performance. Operational reliability and performance will remain our priority as we move forward into 2023 and towards single fleets at both Alaska and Horizon.

更重要的是，我們的運營已經穩定下來，我們又回到了運營一個高完成率和高準點率的航空公司。隨著我們邁向 2023 年並在阿拉斯加和地平線實現單一機隊，運營可靠性和性能仍將是我們的首要任務。

Turning to second quarter results. Our financial performance and strength remains solid. We ended the quarter with $3.8 billion in total liquidity, inclusive of on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit. Year-to-date cash flows from operations are $1.2 billion, including tax refunds and free cash flow is approximately $600 million.

轉向第二季度的結果。我們的財務表現和實力依然穩固。截至本季度末，我們的總流動資金為 38 億美元，包括手頭現金和未動用的信貸額度。年初至今的運營現金流為 12 億美元，包括退稅和自由現金流約為 6 億美元。

Debt-to-cap ended the quarter at 50% within our target leverage range. Debt payments are very manageable with approximately $100 million scheduled for Q3 and $50 million in Q4.

本季度末債務上限在我們的目標槓桿範圍內為 50%。債務支付非常易於管理，預計第三季度約 1 億美元，第四季度約 5000 萬美元。

CASMex was up 19% versus 2Q '19. Sequentially, we increased capacity by 13% from Q1, while nonfuel operating costs rose 6%. Aside from performance-based pay accruals, which, as you know, is a program we believe strongly in, there are 2 primary cost pressure areas: wages, both for our employees and from our third-party partners; and airport rents and related expenses as large capital improvement projects are completed across our system.

CASMex 與 19 年第二季度相比上漲了 19%。隨後，我們的產能比第一季度增加了 13%，而非燃料運營成本上升了 6%。除了基於績效的應計薪酬（如您所知，這是我們堅信的一項計劃）之外，還有兩個主要的成本壓力領域：我們的員工和第三方合作夥伴的工資；以及機場租金和相關費用，因為大型資本改善項目在我們的系統中完成。

These pressures, we believe, are consistent throughout the industry and not unique to Alaska. Obviously, our unit costs were also highly sensitive to our capacity and the lower capacity levels we are deploying this year are a headwind that will ultimately reverse. Despite these and continued high fuel prices, which are up over 50% versus the start of the year, we have line of sight to another double-digit pretax result in Q3 and are reiterating our expectation to deliver on our full year pretax margin guidance of 6% to 9%.

我們認為，這些壓力在整個行業都是一致的，並不是阿拉斯加獨有的。顯然，我們的單位成本對我們的產能也非常敏感，而我們今年部署的較低產能水平是最終會逆轉的逆風。儘管燃油價格持續居高不下（較年初上漲超過 50%），我們仍有望在第三季度再次實現兩位數的稅前業績，並重申我們對實現全年稅前利潤率指引的預期6% 到 9%。

Speaking of capacity, this spring, we made adjustments to give us the necessary breathing room to get back to running a reliable operation, which is a requirement before we attempt to more aggressively grow. The primary driver of the scheduled pull-down was lower output of new pilots from training versus what we needed. We have much improved visibility into our training throughput and will continue to more conservatively plan capacity in the near term to ensure staffing shortages are not driving an inability to operate the schedule we've sold.

說到產能，今年春天，我們進行了調整，為我們提供了必要的喘息空間，以恢復運行可靠的運營，這是我們嘗試更積極增長之前的要求。計劃下降的主要驅動因素是新飛行員的培訓產出低於我們的需要。我們對培訓吞吐量的可見性有了很大提高，並將在短期內繼續更保守地規劃容量，以確保人員短缺不會導致無法運行我們出售的時間表。

Additionally, as you know, we are committed to exiting the Airbus fleet, and we'll begin retiring our 29 A320s in the fourth quarter. Given a more conservative approach to capacity for staffing reasons, better clarity on our Airbus retirement plan and the regional capacity reduction Andrew shared, we expect third quarter capacity to be down 5% to 8% versus 2019 and full year capacity to be down 8% to 9%.

此外，如您所知，我們致力於退出空客機隊，我們將在第四季度開始退役我們的 29 架 A320。考慮到出於人員配備的原因對運力採取了更為保守的方法，我們的空客退休計劃更加清晰，以及 Andrew 分享的區域運力減少，我們預計第三季度運力將比 2019 年下降 5% 至 8%，全年運力將下降 8%到 9%。

The capacity outlook reductions from prior guidance are roughly 1/3 from regional capacity reductions and 2/3 from slower mainline growth. The near-term impact of lower capacity will pressure our CASMex performance for the balance of the year. Overall, we expect third quarter CASMex to be up 16% to 19% with full year CASMex of 15% to 17%. Apart from the direct impact of lower capacity, there are a few specific headwinds that also contribute to our CASMex guides.

先前指導的產能前景減少大約是區域產能減少的 1/3 和主線增長放緩的 2/3。產能下降的近期影響將給我們今年餘下時間的 CASMex 業績帶來壓力。總體而言，我們預計第三季度 CASMex 將增長 16% 至 19%，全年 CASMex 將增長 15% 至 17%。除了產能下降的直接影響外，還有一些特定的不利因素也有助於我們的 CASMex 指南。

First, wages and benefits. Given industry dynamics and the labor market overall, wages are increasing and productivity remains pressured. As Ben mentioned, we're excited to have recently reached a tentative agreement with IAM. And if it ratifies, we expect it to add $13 million in costs in the second half of 2022 and approximately $30 million on an annualized run rate.

第一，工資和福利。鑑於行業動態和整體勞動力市場，工資正在上漲，生產力仍然承壓。正如 Ben 提到的，我們很高興最近與 IAM 達成了初步協議。如果獲得批准，我們預計它將在 2022 年下半年增加 1300 萬美元的成本，年化運行率約為 3000 萬美元。

Overall wage increases are expected to add approximately 3 points of pressure to CASMex this year versus 2019.

與 2019 年相比，今年的整體工資增長預計將給 CASMex 增加約 3 個百分點的壓力。

Second, training and ramp-up costs. As we continue to bring up staffing levels, elevated training and related costs will persist through 2022 and 2023. For the full year, we expect these incremental training costs to add approximately $50 million or about 1 point of CASMex.

其次，培訓和提升成本。隨著我們繼續提高人員配備水平，培訓和相關成本的增加將持續到 2022 年和 2023 年。全年，我們預計這些增量培訓成本將增加大約 5000 萬美元或大約 1 個 CASMex。

Third, performance-based pay. We're proud of our incentive program, which is included in our CASMex. And for the full year, we expect the incremental expense to add nearly 1 point to CASMex. Additionally, the 90,000 mile bonus for employees that Ben shared earlier is adding another $30 million or 2 points in the third quarter.

三是績效工資。我們為我們的 CASMex 中包含的激勵計劃感到自豪。對於全年，我們預計增量費用將為 CASMex 增加近 1 個百分點。此外，Ben 早些時候分享的員工 90,000 英里獎金在第三季度又增加了 3000 萬美元或 2 個積分。

Lastly, we expect fuel price per gallon to be $3.79 to $3.89 for the third quarter. Despite some of the headwinds our industry is currently facing, I believe we continue to have the right structure and low-cost business model in place to strengthen our competitive advantages and fortify our relative position within the industry. This company has succeeded on running a disciplined operation with a long-term view for 90 years, and we're not losing sight of that now.

最後，我們預計第三季度每加侖燃油價格為 3.79 美元至 3.89 美元。儘管我們的行業目前面臨一些不利因素，但我相信我們將繼續擁有正確的結構和低成本的商業模式，以加強我們的競爭優勢並鞏固我們在行業中的相對地位。這家公司 90 年來以長遠的眼光成功地開展了紀律嚴明的運營，我們現在並沒有忘記這一點。

All the elements to drive profitable growth remain intact, and our underlying business model is resilient. Our move to single fleet will drive structural cost improvements supported by continued focus on operational excellence. We are progressing nicely on the $400 million in commercial initiatives, and we are supported by a strong balance sheet. So while we face common industry pressures, this unique combination gives me confidence in our ability to strengthen our competitive position over the next several years.

推動盈利增長的所有要素保持不變，我們的基本業務模式具有彈性。我們轉向單一機隊將推動結構成本的改善，並持續關注卓越運營。我們在 4 億美元的商業計劃方面進展順利，我們得到了強大的資產負債表的支持。因此，儘管我們面臨著共同的行業壓力，但這種獨特的組合讓我對我們在未來幾年加強競爭地位的能力充滿信心。

And with that, let's go to your questions.

有了這個，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Ravi Shanker.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ravi Shanker。

I wanted to follow up on the yield commentary. I think your RASM guidance for 3Q is still pretty strong, but I think there was some indication that maybe in recent weeks, there's been some slowing in trends. So can you just help us quantify that? I mean you said you're still going to run well ahead of 2019, but compared to the mid-20s kind of where is that looking at the very (inaudible) booking curve?

我想跟進收益評論。我認為你們對第三季度的 RASM 指導仍然相當強勁，但我認為有一些跡象表明，也許在最近幾週，趨勢有所放緩。那麼你能幫我們量化一下嗎？我的意思是你說你仍然會在 2019 年之前跑得很好，但與 20 年代中期相比，看看非常（聽不清）的預訂曲線在哪裡？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ravi. I think what we're starting to see now, obviously, is that bookings that are coming in are now coming in progressively for the full period, which as we move out of the peak summer period. But just to reiterate, demand is still extremely strong. For July, August and September, our load factors are on average 1 to 2 points ahead of 2019. So we're just, say, in the last few weeks at these very peak yields. They're just starting to flatten out and come down just a small tad. But again, it's still extremely strong. And as per our guidance, we expect a very strong third quarter unit revenue performance.

是的。謝謝你的問題，拉維。我認為我們現在開始看到的顯然是，隨著我們離開夏季高峰期，整個期間的預訂現在正在逐步進入。但重申一下，需求仍然非常強勁。對於 7 月、8 月和 9 月，我們的載客率平均比 2019 年提前 1 到 2 個百分點。所以說，我們只是在過去幾周處於這些非常高峰的收益率。它們剛剛開始變平並下降一點點。但同樣，它仍然非常強大。根據我們的指導，我們預計第三季度的單位收入表現將非常強勁。

Got it. And would you say that that's different from normal seasonality? Or is that consistent?

知道了。你會說這與正常的季節性不同嗎？還是一致的？

Yes. I think as seasonality as the -- yet away from the peak summer period, in the fall that wouldn't be unexpected.

是的。我認為與秋季一樣的季節性 - 但遠離夏季高峰期，在秋季，這並不出人意料。

Understood. And just one follow-up kind of on the -- at the Analyst Day, I think you guys had spoken about line of sight to resuming cash return. Obviously, very choppy environment out there, but do you have any latest update on that?

明白了。在分析師日，我認為你們已經談到了恢復現金回報的視線。顯然，那裡的環境非常不穩定，但是你有任何最新的更新嗎？

Ravi, it's Nat Pieper. Regarding that, long term with the Alaska strategy, we're committed to generating returns on capital that exceed industry average. We think it's critical to run a successful business as well as attract and retain the high-quality owners that we want. As you know, with the pandemic, with CARES funding, we're restricted from doing shareholder returns until October of '22. And our plan is to discuss that with our Board once those restrictions roll off.

拉維，我是納特·皮珀。關於這一點，從長遠來看，我們的阿拉斯加戰略將致力於創造超過行業平均水平的資本回報。我們認為經營一家成功的企業以及吸引和留住我們想要的優質業主至關重要。如您所知，在大流行病的影響下，有了 CARES 資金，我們在 22 年 10 月之前無法進行股東回報。我們的計劃是在這些限制取消後與我們的董事會討論這個問題。

And our next question comes from Jamie Baker.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jamie Baker。

Any update on tech sector contribution to corporate travel?

科技行業對商務旅行的貢獻有什麼最新消息嗎？

Yes, Jamie, I would say for us at least, the tech has probably been the weakest just to be frank, given our network. But as I also have shared in our prepared remarks, we are very excited about the restructuring of our distribution channels for business with Amex GBT as well as joint contracting with American Airlines. But the tech sector still has ways to go to recover. And so we look forward to seeing that happen.

是的，傑米，至少對我們來說，坦率地說，鑑於我們的網絡，技術可能是最弱的。但正如我在準備好的評論中所分享的那樣，我們對重組與 Amex GBT 的業務以及與美國航空公司的聯合合同的分銷渠道感到非常興奮。但科技行業仍有復甦的路要走。因此，我們期待看到這種情況發生。

Okay. And bear with me, it's a bit of a throwback. I remember prebankruptcy, American used to say, if we had continental's pilot contract, our earnings would have been, whatever, X. I'm just wondering if you've run the pay rates from the American and United TAs through your model? I'm not suggesting the work rules in those TAs would be applicable for Alaska. But if you simply ran the MAX wage rates through your earnings model, what's the impact on margins or ex-fuel CASM if you've done the analysis?

好的。忍受我，這有點倒退。我記得破產前，美國人曾經說過，如果我們有大陸的飛行員合同，我們的收入將會是，無論如何，X。我只是想知道你是否通過你的模型計算了美國和聯合 TA 的工資率？我並不是說這些 TA 中的工作規則適用於阿拉斯加。但是，如果您只是通過您的收益模型計算 MAX 工資率，那麼如果您進行了分析，對利潤率或前燃料 CASM 有什麼影響？

Jamie, it's Shane. Thanks for the question. We obviously are aware of sort of movements at other properties. When it comes to this, we are at the table regularly, almost weekly with our pilots. We're looking forward to getting a TA with them as soon as we can. Yes, we understand the economic impacts on the business, and it's totally fine. Our employees across both companies need to be at market and that's where we're ultimately going to take folks. I'm not going to share anything about the impact because that sort of gets into that guidance that we haven't provided. But we're well aware of what it will mean in terms of the cost structure of the business.

傑米，我是謝恩。謝謝你的問題。我們顯然知道其他屬性的某種運動。談到這一點，我們幾乎每週都會定期與我們的飛行員一起參加會議。我們期待盡快找到他們的助教。是的，我們了解對業務的經濟影響，這完全沒問題。我們兩家公司的員工都需要在市場上，這就是我們最終要帶人去的地方。我不會分享有關影響的任何內容，因為這種影響屬於我們尚未提供的指導。但我們很清楚這對企業的成本結構意味著什麼。

Our next question is from Andrew Didora.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Didora。

Shane, maybe 2 quick questions on costs here. One more housekeeping. Just what was the fuel hedge benefit in 2Q and what is implied in your 3Q fuel guide? And then just on 2023 potential CASM, if you're on track for being basically well -- fully staffed next year, if your capacity is up, say, 10% in 2023 versus 2019, kind of where do you think CASMex shakes out in that type of scenario?

Shane，也許這裡有 2 個關於成本的快速問題。再來一份家政服務。 2Q 中的燃料對沖收益是什麼？您的 3Q 燃料指南中暗示了什麼？然後就 2023 年潛在的 CASM 而言，如果您基本處於良好狀態 - 明年人員配備齊全，如果您的產能在 2023 年比 2019 年增加 10%，那麼您認為 CASMex 會在哪裡脫穎而出那種情景？

Thanks, Andrew. I'll have Nat take the fuel headwind and then I'll follow back with the CASM question.

謝謝，安德魯。我將讓 Nat 接受燃料逆風，然後我將繼續回答 CASM 問題。

Andrew, the 2Q impact on our -- with our hedge book is about $90 million. And then for third quarter, it's about $50 million. And again, that's based on we snap the curve on the 18th, so on Monday.

安德魯，第二季度對我們的對沖賬簿的影響約為 9000 萬美元。然後是第三季度，大約是 5000 萬美元。再一次，這是基於我們在 18 日捕捉曲線，所以在星期一。

Great. Yes. And on CASM into sort of next year, and we're not going to talk a lot about like potential growth rates next year. I think it's -- we're still in the middle of trying to plan for that. But as I mentioned in the script, the real pressure areas are wages and then productivity. We're carrying the same amount of FTEs or maybe slightly more today than we had in 2019, but we're a smaller company. And so there's a lot of opportunity as we move forward to recover sort of more traditional productivity levels, which will help us. I think, Andrew, the big structural change is likely to be labor costs and wages across the industry. It's not unique to us and we'll participate in that. And so that will probably be the headwind into next year.

偉大的。是的。關於 CASM 到明年，我們不會過多談論明年的潛在增長率。我認為這是 - 我們仍在嘗試為此進行計劃。但正如我在劇本中提到的，真正的壓力領域是工資，然後是生產力。我們今天的 FTE 數量與 2019 年相同，或者可能略多一些，但我們是一家規模較小的公司。因此，當我們繼續恢復某種更傳統的生產力水平時，有很多機會，這將對我們有所幫助。安德魯，我認為，重大的結構性變化可能是整個行業的勞動力成本和工資。這不是我們獨有的，我們將參與其中。所以這可能會成為明年的逆風。

Certainly, we're flying less capacity today than what we had prepared for and have costs for. And I think in 2022, it's sort of a one-for-one exchange. Had we flown 1% more ASMs, we would have seen 1% lower unit cost, give or take, on the margin. So just to give you some flavor of where we had anticipated we could be in terms of capacity versus what the practical reality of what we can fly is right now.

當然，我們今天的運力比我們準備的和成本要少。我認為在 2022 年，這是一種一對一的交流。如果我們多飛 1% 的 ASM，我們會看到單位成本降低 1%，無論是給予還是接受，邊際收益。因此，只是為了讓您了解我們在容量方面的預期與我們現在可以飛行的實際現實情況。

Got it. That's really helpful. So then second question just for Andrew. You mentioned a little bit on the corporate booking side, maybe your tech exposures might be hurting you a little bit there. And I guess if I'm doing my math correct this morning, it looks like kind of your 4Q revenue growth might decel a little bit from 3Q to hit your margin outlook. So with all that said and what's going on in the macro, kind of just how are you thinking about kind of the demand trajectory from here between -- across your network and then sort of your thoughts about broken down between corporate and leisure.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。那麼第二個問題只針對安德魯。您在公司預訂方面提到了一點，也許您的技術曝光可能會在那裡對您造成一點傷害。而且我想如果我今天早上做的數學是正確的，看起來你的第 4 季度收入增長可能會比第 3 季度略有下降，以達到你的利潤率前景。綜上所述，以及宏觀上正在發生的事情，你是如何考慮從這裡開始的需求軌蹟的——通過你的網絡，然後是你對公司和休閒之間的細分的想法。

Yes. I think again, Q2 had a very strong run up. RASM was up 15% in April, 25% in May and 35% in June. And I think we've sort of flattened out. Again, as we're nearly done with July, and I'm looking at August is very, very strong. And even September, as we sit here today, we're very pleased with what we see coming in. I think corporate, they're a little bit choppy, but I think we've seen good strength there, relatively speaking. And so again, where I sit today, demand and pricing environment, we're still very, very good about that, the third quarter. And that's what reflected in our guide.

是的。我再次認為，第二季度的增長非常強勁。 RASM 4 月上漲 15%，5 月上漲 25%，6 月上漲 35%。而且我認為我們已經趨於平緩。再一次，因為我們幾乎完成了 7 月，而我認為 8 月非常非常強勁。即使是 9 月，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對我們所看到的情況感到非常滿意。我認為公司，他們有點波濤洶湧，但我認為我們在那裡看到了相對而言良好的實力。再說一次，我今天坐在哪裡，需求和定價環境，我們仍然非常非常好，第三季度。這就是我們的指南中反映的內容。

And Andrew, I might just say because I know you're sort of inferring the pretax guide reiteration. I think we don't know exactly what will happen with revenues in Q4, and it wouldn't be prudent to assume that what we just experienced in July is the new normal. And so we're just sort of being thoughtful about how we look at the rest of the year. But hopefully, demand stays super robust and we can outperform those.

安德魯，我可能會說，因為我知道你是在推斷稅前指南的重申。我認為我們不確切知道第四季度的收入會發生什麼，並且假設我們在 7 月剛剛經歷的是新常態是不明智的。所以我們只是在考慮如何看待今年剩下的時間。但希望需求保持超級強勁，我們可以超越那些。

We have a question from Mike Linenberg.

我們有一個來自 Mike Linenberg 的問題。

Yes. Andrew, I want you to get back to just the significant yield increases. I sort of think back in years past when the demand environment was strong, we would see lots of fare increases the industry would put through and there'd be good successes. And I -- my sense is that we really haven't seen meaningful increases. It seems like it's a lot more about just harnessing the power of, call it, next generation revenue management systems. And maybe distribution changes and how people purchase tickets and buying them off of their phones and the impulse buy, that's driving it as well. And I'm just curious if there is maybe structurally changes in how airlines are able to revenue manage up, right, rather than just across-the-board fare increases that we read about, where everybody moves $5 and $10 because demand is strong. Has there been a structural change there? Or just anything that you can kind of tell us on how things have evolved. And maybe this is sort of a pandemic consequence. Your thoughts on that.

是的。安德魯，我希望你回到顯著增加的產量。我有點回想起過去幾年，當需求環境強勁時，我們會看到該行業會實施大量票價上漲，並且會取得良好的成功。而我——我的感覺是，我們真的沒有看到有意義的增長。似乎更多的是利用下一代收入管理系統的力量。也許分佈變化以及人們購買門票的方式以及通過手機購買門票的方式以及沖動購買，這也是推動它的原因。而且我只是好奇航空公司在收入管理方式上是否可能發生結構性變化，對，而不僅僅是我們讀到的全面票價上漲，每個人都會移動 5 美元和 10 美元，因為需求強勁。那裡發生了結構性變化嗎？或者只是任何你能告訴我們事情是如何演變的東西。也許這是一種流行病的後果。你對此的看法。

Yes. That's a very interesting question. The thing that come to mind are 2 things. Yes, we've seen pricing increases here or there, but I think the team is leveraged heavily on inventory bucket closure and being very, very active with that. I think secondly, just to be frank, the one good thing about the pandemic is we are way more dialed in and way more granular on how we manage revenues every single day versus the weekly or whatever because the volatility in revenue over the last 2 years has given us muscles and skills that, quite frankly, were there but we didn't use. So I think with the new pricing and inventory management systems, with the volatility index for our teams looking at things way more closely, I think you're seeing better performance, better connection to the demand in the marketplace. So I think those are all good things.

是的。這是一個非常有趣的問題。想到的是兩件事。是的，我們已經看到這里或那裡的價格上漲，但我認為團隊在很大程度上利用了庫存桶關閉，並且非常非常積極地參與其中。我認為其次，坦率地說，關於大流行的一個好處是，由於過去 2 年的收入波動，我們對每天與每週或其他任何方式的收入管理方式更加密切相關，並且更加細化坦率地說，它給了我們肌肉和技能，但我們沒有使用。因此，我認為通過新的定價和庫存管理系統，以及我們團隊更密切地觀察事物的波動率指數，我認為您會看到更好的表現，更好地與市場需求聯繫起來。所以我認為這些都是好事。

Okay. Great. And then just a second question. And Ben, maybe this is to you. Given your exposure in California relative to your system, I'm curious about maybe any initial thoughts about that state court ruling as it pertains to duty times and rest requirements for flight attendants. And again, historically, I always thought the Regulation Act sort of meant that federal rule would trump state rule and you're kind of opening up a Pandora's box. It looks like at least for now, it's prevailing. Any thoughts on that? And I guess the dust hasn't yet settled but potential impacts and unintended consequences, maybe initial [think]?

好的。偉大的。然後只是第二個問題。還有本，也許這是給你的。鑑於您在加州的曝光率相對於您的系統，我很好奇可能對州法院裁決的任何初步想法，因為它與值班時間和空乘人員的休息要求有關。再一次，從歷史上看，我一直認為《監管法案》在某種程度上意味著聯邦統治將勝過州統治，而你有點打開了潘多拉的盒子。至少目前看來，它是盛行的。對此有什麼想法嗎？而且我想塵埃尚未落定，但潛在的影響和意想不到的後果，也許是最初的 [認為]？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Yes, I think we're going slow on that, Mike, and we're going to see how we head towards compliance on that. And so we'll take that step by step. And Kyle, I don't know if you have anything to add on that? I know you've been working it.

是的。謝謝，邁克。是的，我認為我們在這方面進展緩慢，邁克，我們將看看我們如何在這方面實現合規。所以我們會一步一步來。還有凱爾，我不知道你有什麼要補充的嗎？我知道你一直在努力。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. You're preaching to the choir about the deregulation Act. We had the same hope as you, the Supreme Court didn't see it that way. So our legal options are up. And as Ben mentioned, we need to figure out what happens next.

是的。謝謝，邁克。你正在向合唱團宣傳放鬆管制法。我們和你有同樣的希望，最高法院不這麼看。因此，我們的法律選擇已經出現。正如本所說，我們需要弄清楚接下來會發生什麼。

And we have a question from Duane Pfennigwerth.

我們有一個來自 Duane Pfennigwerth 的問題。

As you look at your plan and your recovery trajectory and your competitors' plans, when do you think -- assuming a stable macro, like when do you think supply catches back up with demand? It certainly doesn't feel like the third quarter, you've already gotten a couple of questions about the fourth quarter and my guess is that just a plug at this point. But as you just think supply-demand and stable macro, when is the earliest shot at sort of supply catching back up with demand?

當您查看您的計劃、您的複蘇軌跡以及您的競爭對手的計劃時，您認為什麼時候 - 假設宏觀環境穩定，例如您認為供應何時能趕上需求？感覺肯定不像第三季度，你已經收到了一些關於第四季度的問題，我猜現在這只是一個插曲。但是你只考慮供需和宏觀穩定，最早什麼時候才能讓供應趕上需求呢？

Duane, for us at Alaska, right now, what we're focused on is getting our single fleet transition done. And I think what we're trying to do is set ourselves up for 2023 and beyond. So that is job one for us, both on the mainline side and the regional side. We want to be really well configured heading into 2023. We talked about some headwinds in the economy. So we're not sure right now. We're really happy with demand and yields. But we really want to configure our company to withstand whatever external shocks are out there, but also set ourselves up for growth. So once we get to single fleet, then the opportunity for growth is going to be there for us. And so that's how we're looking at it.

Duane，對於我們在阿拉斯加的我們來說，現在，我們關注的是完成我們的單一艦隊過渡。我認為我們要做的是為 2023 年及以後做好準備。所以這對我們來說是一項工作，無論是在主線方面還是在區域方面。我們希望在 2023 年之前做好充分的準備。我們談到了經濟中的一些逆風。所以我們現在不確定。我們對需求和產量感到非常滿意。但我們真的希望我們的公司能夠承受任何外部衝擊，同時也為增長做好準備。因此，一旦我們到達單一艦隊，那麼增長的機會就會出現在我們面前。這就是我們看待它的方式。

Okay. It was a bit...

好的。有點……

Duane, I would just add, I think it all depends on how much demand is? Is it 120% of normal today and capacity is negative 10%, it's probably several quarters before it catches up. If it's 100% of sort of normal demand, 2019 demand for negative 10% capacity, it's probably a couple of quarters. So it seems like it's to the right before we sort of fully catch up, assuming a stable economic backdrop.

Duane，我想補充一下，我認為這完全取決於需求量是多少？今天是正常的 120%，而產能是負 10%，可能需要幾個季度才能趕上。如果是 100% 的正常需求，2019 年負 10% 的產能需求，可能是幾個季度。因此，假設經濟背景穩定，在我們完全趕上之前似乎是正確的。

Yes. And then just could you comment a little bit on Hawaii, the level of recovery that you've seen there, what the booking curve looks like and maybe just the competitive environment. What level of industry capacity has been restored there?

是的。然後你能評論一下夏威夷，你在那裡看到的複蘇水平，預訂曲線是什麼樣的，也許只是競爭環境。那裡的產業產能恢復到什麼水平？

Yes, Duane, I think Hawaii, while we don't specifically talk a huge amount about regions, we feel very good about how we've constructed that. Obviously, the industry has pumped more seats into that marketplace. So relatively speaking, there's some headwinds there. But I'll also say, as I said in my prepared remarks, our premium cabin is off the chart in performance and Hawaii is one place where our premium cabin is really performing and helping mitigate some of those supply issues. So overall, very full airplanes, great demand and business as usual for now.

是的，Duane，我認為夏威夷，雖然我們並沒有專門談論很多地區，但我們對我們如何構建它感覺非常好。顯然，該行業已經為該市場注入了更多席位。所以相對而言，那裡有一些不利因素。但我還要說，正如我在準備好的講話中所說，我們的高級客艙在性能上超出了圖表，而夏威夷是我們的高級客艙真正表現出色並有助於緩解其中一些供應問題的地方。總的來說，飛機非常滿，需求量很大，現在一切照常。

Our next question is from Helane Becker.

我們的下一個問題來自 Helane Becker。

So 2 questions. One is with respect to Horizon Air. You own that company and you mentioned that you're seeing issues with your regional providers, most other airlines are as well. So how should we think about Horizon's future over the next, say -- no, no, no, 1 to 3 years, given the constraints that regional airlines have?

所以2個問題。其中之一是關於 Horizon Air。你擁有那家公司，你提到你看到你的區域供應商有問題，大多數其他航空公司也是如此。那麼，考慮到支線航空公司的限制，我們應該如何看待 Horizon 未來的未來，比如說——不，不，不，1 到 3 年？

Helen, it's Ben. Thanks for the question. It's a good question. Well, first, what I'll say is our regional network is critical to our success. So all the Pacific Northwest markets we serve are just integral to our entire domestic network. So one, it's needed and required. I think secondly, there's no doubt there's a pilot shortage in the industry. And where you see it is in the regional industry. It's down, like I said, 20% to 30%.

海倫，我是本。謝謝你的問題。這是個好問題。嗯，首先，我要說的是我們的區域網絡對我們的成功至關重要。因此，我們服務的所有太平洋西北市場都是我們整個國內網絡不可或缺的一部分。所以一，它是需要和必需的。我認為其次，毫無疑問，該行業存在飛行員短缺。你看到的地方是區域行業。就像我說的，它下降了 20% 到 30%。

So we're working -- again, this path to single fleet for us is one of our strategies to really try and mitigate that. And we've got a lot of plans with pipelines and pathways to mitigate the pilot shortage on the regionals, but we're working on it. And I think, honestly, Helane, this thing is going to evolve. It continues to evolve every quarter with changes in the industry, and we're going to stay close to it. Joe, did you want to add anything?

所以我們正在努力——再一次，這條通往單一艦隊的道路是我們真正嘗試和緩解這種情況的策略之一。我們有很多計劃，包括管道和途徑，以緩解地區試點短缺，但我們正在努力。我認為，老實說，Helane，這件事將會發展。隨著行業的變化，它每個季度都在不斷發展，我們將密切關注它。喬，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think, Helane, this is Joe with Horizon. There is some optimism. We have a new fleet order for Horizon that was announced earlier this week, and we're excited about the timing of those deliveries over the next 4 years that in addition to the Q400s going away, which will make us smaller in the near term, it allows us to sort of rebuild our fleet size alongside sort of in tandem with rebuilding our pilot staffing capability over the next few years. And there is a lot of interest in becoming an airline pilot. There's never been a better time in history to become an airline pilot. We're seeing that interest at both Horizon and Alaska with a strong applicant pool and some things that we're doing at the sort of the top end of the funnel to encourage people to come into the industry, and there definitely is interest.

不，我想，Helane，這是 Horizon 的 Joe。有一些樂觀。我們在本週早些時候宣布了 Horizon 的新機隊訂單，我們對未來 4 年的交付時間感到興奮，除了 Q400 將被淘汰，這將使我們在短期內變得更小，它使我們能夠在某種程度上重建我們的機隊規模，同時在未來幾年重建我們的飛行員人員配置能力。成為一名航空公司飛行員有很多興趣。歷史上從來沒有比現在更好的成為航空公司飛行員的時候了。我們在 Horizon 和 Alaska 都看到了這種興趣，擁有強大的申請人池，我們正在做一些事情，以鼓勵人們進入這個行業，而且肯定有興趣。

That's good to hear. And then my other question, my follow-up question has to do with like the decline, and I don't know, maybe Andrew, this is for you. Airline traffic tends to be good until it's not good. And I'm just wondering when would you see a decline in bookings related to an economic slowdown? And when would that start to manifest itself?

聽起來還不錯。然後我的另一個問題，我的後續問題與下降有關，我不知道，也許安德魯，這是給你的。航空公司的交通往往很好，直到它變得不好。我只是想知道你什麼時候會看到與經濟放緩相關的預訂量下降？什麼時候開始表現出來？

Well, as you know, Helane, we look at this every day. I think sometimes it can get confusing here because demand is obviously -- is really a big part of pricing as well. I mean, just to be clear. And so demand right now, as I've said, is very strong at very high yield increases over '19. So I think the first thing we'll see is maybe a slowdown in demand if and when it comes, and then we'll start to obviously play with the yield levers. But there is a lot of room to go before we really come down and reach the floors of 2019. So I would say, as of today, and this business changes, we're still seeing relatively good -- strong position and even our held yields in September are well into the high 20s as we sit here today.

好吧，如你所知，Helane，我們每天都在看這個。我認為有時在這裡會讓人感到困惑，因為需求顯然 - 也是定價的重要組成部分。我的意思是，為了清楚起見。因此，正如我所說，現在的需求非常強勁，在 19 年的產量增長非常高。因此，我認為我們首先會看到的可能是需求放緩，如果它來了，那麼我們將開始明顯地使用收益率槓桿。但是，在我們真正跌倒並達到 2019 年的水平之前，還有很多空間。所以我想說，截至今天，隨著業務的變化，我們仍然看到相對較好的 - 強勢地位，甚至是我們持有的當我們今天坐在這裡時，9 月份的收益率已經達到了 20 多歲的高位。

And our next question comes from Savi Syth.

我們的下一個問題來自 Savi Syth。

First off, I wonder if I could just clarify the previous answer on the 2023 potential. I know at Investor Day, I think you mentioned 2023 could be up 9% capacity type of outlook, not that you gave specific guidance, but I'm curious, given the move that you made here in the second half and just kind of building in this caution and you have this transition going on in the early part. What could be kind of a realistic range for 2023? Or what do you think you can deliver in terms of capacity for 2023? Demand [spending], obviously.

首先，我想知道我是否可以澄清之前關於 2023 年潛力的答案。我知道在投資者日，我認為你提到 2023 年可能會增加 9% 的容量類型的前景，並不是你給出了具體的指導，但我很好奇，考慮到你在下半年採取的行動，只是一種建設在這個警告中，你有這個過渡在早期進行。 2023 年的現實範圍是多少？或者您認為您可以在 2023 年的產能方面提供什麼？顯然，需求[支出]。

Savi, it's Shane. One thing that we've all learned over the last 2 years is most of our ability to forecast what's going to happen is not very -- not as good as it used to be pre-pandemic. So take some of this with a grain of salt. I think the 2 things that are going to be sort of critical, absent whatever the economy is doing is just our fleet transition Ben mentioned that we're totally committed to that. Our ability to get replacement aircraft is sort of quickly from our supplier. And then just our ability to produce the right number of pilots and other staff for the operations. So I think if anything, we're going to be a little more conservative until we have several quarters under our belts are of really good operational reliability, really good staffing levels.

薩維，我是謝恩。在過去的 2 年中，我們都學到了一件事，那就是我們預測將要發生的事情的大部分能力都不是很好——不如大流行前那樣好。所以拿一些這個和一粒鹽一起吃。我認為有兩件事將是至關重要的，無論經濟在做什麼，只是我們的船隊過渡本提到我們完全致力於這一點。我們從供應商那裡獲得替換飛機的能力有點快。然後是我們為運營培養合適數量的飛行員和其他員工的能力。所以我認為，如果有的話，我們會更加保守，直到我們有幾個季度的運營可靠性非常好，人員配備水平非常好。

I just think over the last year or 2, we've sort of assumed everything was going to work exactly as originally planned, and we've just -- that was probably a too aggressive set of assumptions. So I think in terms of aircraft units, we're going to have enough plains ultimately to grow quite a bit next year. I think what we decide to do with those is still up in the air, and that's a discussion we're going to be having over the next couple of months internally. And obviously, we know folks are interested in and we'll say more as we get clarity on what our 2023 growth plans are, but they're probably somewhat moderated from what we were talking about at Investor Day.

我只是認為在過去的一兩年裡，我們有點假設一切都會按照最初的計劃進行，而我們只是——這可能是一組過於激進的假設。所以我認為就飛機單位而言，我們最終將擁有足夠的平原，明年會有相當大的增長。我認為我們決定如何處理這些仍然懸而未決，這是我們將在未來幾個月內進行的內部討論。顯然，我們知道人們對此很感興趣，隨著我們對 2023 年增長計劃的明確，我們會說更多，但與我們在投資者日討論的內容相比，它們可能有所緩和。

That's helpful. And somewhat related, I want to -- basically there's a regional airlines that are in-house that is one of your competitors, you've got pretty big pay increases. And I know as you pointed out, the regional capacity at Alaska is down quite a bit, and you're doing a fleet transition there as well that's kind of bringing that regional fleet down. I was just kind of curious if Horizon had to match some of those rates. What does that mean for kind of regional lift economics from a longer-term perspective? Because it's pretty much getting where your -- you can almost fly these with the mainline pilots.

這很有幫助。有點相關，我想 - 基本上有一家內部的區域航空公司是你的競爭對手之一，你的工資增長幅度很大。我知道，正如你所指出的，阿拉斯加的區域運力下降了很多，而且你正在那裡進行機隊過渡，這會導致區域機隊下降。我只是有點好奇 Horizon 是否必須匹配其中一些費率。從長期來看，這對區域電梯經濟意味著什麼？因為它幾乎可以到達您的位置-您幾乎可以與主線飛行員一起駕駛這些飛機。

Yes, Savi, it's Joe again. I think no question, there's cost pressure for regional airline pilots. The American deal certainly stood out. I think there's a lot of folks sort of watching to see what else transpires. We are working with our pilots to find some ways to improve retention at Horizon, but it's definitely a changing dynamic for the industry right now, and I bet Shane will have some additional thoughts.

是的，薩維，又是喬。我認為毫無疑問，支線航空公司的飛行員面臨著成本壓力。美國的交易當然引人注目。我認為有很多人在觀看，看看還會發生什麼。我們正在與我們的飛行員合作，尋找一些方法來提高 Horizon 的保留率，但這絕對是目前行業的一個不斷變化的動態，我敢打賭 Shane 會有一些額外的想法。

Yes. And I -- number one, just a shout out to Joe. He's done a phenomenal job leading Horizon. Savi, you may -- you've been with us a long time. We actually had spent a lot of time in the regional business model, pre-pandemic. We had gotten it back to be a profitable contributor to the whole. So it's just the reality that it's going in a different direction. The cost of operating regionals are going to go up.

是的。而我——第一，只是向喬大喊一聲。他在領導 Horizon 方面做得非常出色。薩維，你可能——你已經和我們在一起很長時間了。實際上，在大流行之前，我們已經在區域商業模式上花費了很多時間。我們已經讓它重新成為對整體有利可圖的貢獻者。所以這只是現實，它正朝著不同的方向發展。運營區域性的成本將會上升。

In terms of what that means for our long-term strategy, I think it's way too early to sort of tell or to share anything. What I will just reiterate is what Ben said that a large part of our network requires regional lifts. We're committed to those communities. We have not exited a community yet. We don't want to. And so that aircraft, E175, fits really well within our network hole, and we see a future for them. And we're just going to have to figure out once we understand where everything ends up in terms of costs, how to make that a reasonable part of our network from an economic standpoint.

就這對我們的長期戰略意味著什麼而言，我認為現在說出來或分享任何東西還為時過早。我要重申的是 Ben 所說的，我們網絡的很大一部分需要區域升降機。我們致力於這些社區。我們還沒有退出社區。我們不想。因此，E175 飛機非常適合我們的網絡漏洞，我們看到了它們的未來。我們只需要弄清楚，一旦我們了解了一切最終的成本，如何從經濟角度使其成為我們網絡的合理部分。

Our next question is from Dan McKenzie.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan McKenzie。

So my question is sort of similar to Savi's. It's really a flex up, flex down question on supply next year. And I'm just curious, what percent of the fleet is fully paid for or if you're looking to flex on, supply is the easier move simply to accelerate the Airbus retirements. And I guess I'm just trying to get some sense of the ability to flex down, flex up under sort of a tougher economic backdrop.

所以我的問題有點類似於薩維的問題。明年的供應問題確實是一個向上彎曲，向下彎曲的問題。而且我很好奇，機隊中有多少百分比是完全支付的，或者如果你想靈活使用，供應是更容易加速空客退役的舉措。而且我想我只是想了解在更艱難的經濟背景下向下彎曲，向上彎曲的能力。

Yes, Dan, a couple of things, some color, give or take. I think Q4, Airbus capacity is about 8% of total Air Group capacity. Half of that is the A320 fleet that we're drawing down. And the remainder is the A321 fleet, which will be with us next year, it's about 4% of capacity. You could potentially move to retire that more quickly. And that's roughly the amount of ASMs you'd be talking about. I think the flex up thing, that's really a utilization question. And it gets back to how much sort of stress we want to put into the operation. And as I said a couple of questions ago, I think we were too aggressive in the spring. We're going to be a little more conservative for the next several quarters. So I would suspect we work the utilization lever a little more next year, but not try to maximize it. So there's -- I think there's a pretty tight range of capacity that we're going to end up in next year.

是的，丹，一些東西，一些顏色，給予或接受。我認為第四季度，空中客車的運力約佔航空集團總運力的 8%。其中一半是我們正在縮減的 A320 機隊。其餘的是 A321 機隊，明年將與我們同在，約佔運力的 4%。您可能會更快地退休。這大致就是您要談論的 ASM 的數量。我認為彎曲的東西，這確實是一個使用問題。它又回到了我們想在操作中施加多少壓力。正如我在幾個問題之前所說的那樣，我認為我們在春天過於激進了。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將更加保守。所以我懷疑明年我們會更多地利用利用槓桿，但不要試圖最大限度地利用它。所以有 - 我認為我們將在明年結束的容量範圍非常有限。

Dan, it's Nat. One other point, too, just on your question, aircraft paid for unencumbered, et cetera. We've got large part, 60, 65 airplanes that are fully paid for should capacity really go south because of the economy, et cetera, we could pull aircraft down with no problem at all and not have to pay leases on that -- on any of those, fully depreciated and owned.

丹，我是納特。還有一點，就您的問題而言，飛機為無負擔的飛機付費，等等。我們有很大一部分，60、65 架飛機已經全額支付，如果容量真的因為經濟等原因而下降，我們可以毫無問題地把飛機降下來，而不必為此支付租金——關於任何這些，完全折舊和擁有。

Yes. Well, next question here. I know Seattle is solid. I can see the competitive dynamic in that market. And just following up on an earlier question on Hawaii and inter-California, the pretax margin outlook is really solid. But in the back of my mind, I'm thinking that you have a couple of entities here that are still a drag on the system margins. So I'm just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on some of these -- on these entities.

是的。好吧，下一個問題在這裡。我知道西雅圖很穩固。我可以看到該市場的競爭動態。只是跟進一個關於夏威夷和加利福尼亞州之間的問題，稅前利潤率前景非常可靠。但在我的腦海中，我認為您這裡有幾個實體仍然拖累系統邊緣。所以我只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明其中一些——關於這些實體。

Yes, Dan, I think in generally, what you've seen us do is obviously bring back capacity the quickest and the fastest to Seattle and obviously exceeds. As far as the rest of our network, and I presume you're alluding to California, I think, again, the good news there is that our capacity has been down significantly, and we're working to sort of bring that back. We have new corporate deals. We have new credit card programs. We have our Vice President in the buy area now whose full-time job it is, is to make sure other parts of our network continue to get better. So we feel very good. We think there's sort of only up from where we've been, just to be quite frank, as we continue to work it.

是的，丹，我認為總的來說，你所看到的我們所做的顯然是最快最快地將容量帶回西雅圖，而且顯然超過了。至於我們網絡的其他部分，我想你是在暗示加利福尼亞，我認為，好消息是我們的容量已經顯著下降，我們正在努力恢復這種情況。我們有新的公司交易。我們有新的信用卡計劃。我們現在在採購領域有我們的副總裁，他的全職工作是確保我們網絡的其他部分繼續變得更好。所以我們感覺很好。我們認為只有從我們曾經去過的地方開始，坦率地說，隨著我們繼續努力。

The last thing I will mention just because it's becoming a theme here, I think for me, personally, what 2022 has taught me is the best economic driver for Alaska Air Group, its loyalty and its guests, is to set a financial plan and capacity and hit it. The amount of economic frustration and guest frustration when you set the plans and don't do it is very, very large. So I think that's why we feel very confident that whatever we grow next year, that we will hit it and we will execute extremely well, and that will be the best cost and revenue answer for Air Group.

我要提到的最後一件事只是因為它正在成為這裡的一個主題，我認為就我個人而言，2022 年教會我的是阿拉斯加航空集團的最佳經濟驅動力，它的忠誠度和它的客人，就是製定一個財務計劃和容量並擊中它。當您制定計劃但不執行時，經濟上的挫敗感和客人的挫敗感非常非常大。因此，我認為這就是為什麼我們非常有信心，無論我們明年增長什麼，我們都會實現目標並且我們將執行得非常好，這將是 Air Group 的最佳成本和收入答案。

Our next question is from Chris Stathoulopoulos.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

So Shane, the 4% to 8% targeted growth through 2025 you outlined a few months ago. In light of everything that's happening right now, operational issues for the industry, labor tightness, likely economic slowdown, does 10% in the new market still makes sense or the 70% from frequency? And those peers, as you know, are taking down out your capacity guide, but the moving parts, at least for me, still are a bit murky. So any color on what's moving or what could move around with respect to that 4 buckets of growth you outlined a few months ago?

所以 Shane，你幾個月前概述的到 2025 年 4% 到 8% 的目標增長。鑑於目前正在發生的一切，行業的運營問題、勞動力緊張、可能的經濟放緩，新市場的 10% 仍然有意義還是頻率的 70%？如您所知，那些同行正在刪除您的容量指南，但至少對我而言，活動部分仍然有點模糊。那麼，對於您幾個月前概述的這 4 個增長桶，有什麼正在發生變化或可能發生什麼變化的顏色嗎？

Yes. No, thanks, Chris. I think, yes, the idea of -- and I'm not saying we wouldn't get into new markets, but obviously, we're most focused on recovering the pre-pandemic network, even though it's been reshaped, but getting our California network back up or network back, is it going to remain a priority? That's where the incremental capacity from here forward will go? And if there's a smart market opportunity in there that's new, we'll definitely take advantage of it, but a little bit less bias towards doing that as we grow at a slower rate than we had anticipated.

是的。不，謝謝，克里斯。我認為，是的，我並不是說我們不會進入新市場，但顯然，我們最專注於恢復大流行前的網絡，即使它已經過重塑，但我們的加州網絡備份或網絡備份，是否仍將是優先事項？那就是從這裡開始的增量容量將去哪裡？如果那裡有一個新的聰明的市場機會，我們肯定會利用它，但由於我們的增長速度比我們預期的要慢，所以這樣做的偏見會有所減少。

Okay. And as a follow-up. So as we think about exit rates for CASMex and your pretax margins for this year, if you can, how are you thinking about volumes and yields here? Are you waiting the latter more heavily as you plan for 2023?

好的。並作為後續行動。因此，當我們考慮 CASMex 的退出率和您今年的稅前利潤率時，如果可以的話，您如何考慮這裡的交易量和收益率？在您計劃 2023 年時，您是否正在更加等待後者？

Sorry, Chris, that was on CASMex exit rate?

抱歉，克里斯，那是關於 CASMex 退出率的嗎？

Yes. Well, as we think about the CASMex we hear, we have a CASMex guide. We have your pretax margin guide. I think a lot of investors here are looking at exit rates in the setup for next year and to the extent, how are you thinking about the weight or the split between volume and yields? What are you emphasizing here in your projections?

是的。好吧，當我們想到我們聽到的 CASMex 時，我們有一個 CASMex 指南。我們有您的稅前保證金指南。我認為這裡的很多投資者都在關註明年設置中的退出率，在某種程度上，你如何考慮權重或交易量和收益率之間的分配？您在預測中強調的是什麼？

Got you. Yes. In terms of like the pretax sort of -- yes, I think what we'll see and what we anticipate, we're going to fly marginally more in capacity in Q3 relative to Q2. And then I think Q4, it's -- there's an implied guide out there based on our full year, but it's still a little bit up in the year based on the economy and ultimately the Airbus and Q400 drawdown. And I think those are going to be meaningful sort of determinants of how we exit the year on CASMex. As I had said before, I think there's kind of a one-to-one relationship right now. If we can fly the capacity, will 1 point of capacity should equal to something like a point to reduce CASMex.

得到你。是的。就稅前類型而言——是的，我認為我們將看到和預期的情況，相對於第二季度，我們在第三季度的運力將略微增加。然後我認為第四季度，這是基於我們全年的隱含指南，但根據經濟以及最終空中客車和 Q400 的縮減，它在今年仍然有點上升。我認為這些將成為我們如何在 CASMex 上退出這一年的有意義的決定因素。正如我之前所說，我認為現在有一種一對一的關係。如果我們可以飛容量，那麼 1 點容量應該等於減少 CASMex 的點。

I think right now, as it stands here today, our plan is to hit all of those guides that we set forth. And it would take a pretty dramatic economic and demand turnaround for us to think differently about that right now because we're still smaller than we were in 2019, and we think demand is higher than 2019. So I just think like right now, there's not a lot of bias to try to take further capacity down in Q4. We're going to go and execute what we've just shared in terms of guidance.

我認為現在，就像今天一樣，我們的計劃是打擊我們提出的所有指南。我們現在需要一個相當戲劇性的經濟和需求轉變才能以不同的方式思考這個問題，因為我們仍然比 2019 年要小，而且我們認為需求高於 2019 年。所以我現在認為，有試圖在第四季度進一步降低產能並沒有太大的偏見。我們將去執行我們剛剛在指導方面分享的內容。

And our final question comes from Scott Group.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Scott Group。

I'll just keep it to one. Shane, you talked about some puts and takes for CASMex next year. Just directionally, would you think that CASMex is up or down in '23 versus '22?

我只保留一個。 Shane，你談到了明年 CASMex 的一些看跌期權。就方向而言，您認為 CASMex 在 23 年與 22 年相比上漲還是下跌？

I think assuming we get labor deals done, it very likely could be up.

我認為假設我們完成了勞務交易，它很可能會上升。

Versus '22?

與'22？

I was thinking versus 2019. Versus '22, I don't know, it's probably -- it's going to be highly levered against the growth rate, but there's a chance it could be up. And I do anticipate us getting labor deals done. We're not sharing sort of guidance around that, but our hope is that they are not in our cost base next year.

我在考慮與 2019 年相比。與 22 年相比，我不知道，這可能是 - 它會高度影響增長率，但它有可能會上升。我確實預計我們會完成勞務交易。我們不會就此分享某種指導，但我們希望明年它們不在我們的成本基礎中。

Thanks, Scott, and thank you, everyone, for joining us, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

謝謝斯科特，謝謝大家加入我們，我們將在下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。