阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到阿拉斯加航空集團 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. (Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄製中，將來可以在 alaskaair.com 上播放。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Emily Halverson.

我現在想把電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團的財務副總裁 Emily Halverson。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release, which is available at investor.alaskaair.com. On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝接線員，早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告，可在 investor.alaskaair.com 上獲取。在今天的電話會議上，您會聽到 Ben、Andrew 和 Shane 的最新消息。我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在電話的問答部分在線回答您的問題。

This morning, Air Group reported fourth quarter GAAP net income of $22 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $118 million. As a reminder, our comments today will include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results. Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found within our SEC filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we have provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release.

今天上午，Air Group 報告第四季度 GAAP 淨收入為 2200 萬美元。排除特殊項目和按市值計價的燃料對沖調整，Air Group 報告調整後的淨收入為 1.18 億美元。提醒一下，我們今天的評論將包括有關未來業績的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能與我們的實際結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的信息可以在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如調整後的收益和單位成本，不包括燃料。和往常一樣，我們在今天的收益發布中提供了最直接可比的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬。

Over to you, Ben.

交給你了，本。

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Despite another volatile year, we closed out 2022 with solid results. With our continued focus and the incredible dedication of our employees, we are well positioned to build on this success as we move into 2023 and beyond.

謝謝，艾米麗，大家早上好。儘管又是動蕩的一年，我們以穩健的成績結束了 2022 年。憑藉我們的持續關注和員工難以置信的奉獻精神，我們有能力在進入 2023 年及以後的過程中繼續取得成功。

This year, we generated full year revenue 10% above 2019 levels, doing so on 9% less capacity. Our 7.6% full year adjusted pretax margin led the industry, proving that our business model is resilient. Air Group's pretax margins have now ranked #1 in the industry for 11 of the last 13 years.

今年，我們的全年收入比 2019 年的水平高出 10%，而產能減少了 9%。我們 7.6% 的全年調整後稅前利潤率領先於行業，證明我們的商業模式具有彈性。 Air Group 的稅前利潤率在過去 13 年中有 11 年在行業中排名第一。

Additionally, our employees earned the largest performance bonus payout in our company's history on average, adding 10.5% on top of our employee salaries or nearly 6 weeks' worth of pay. Our people did a fantastic job delivering care. I want to thank all of them for the work they do to ensure Air Group outperforms even during turbulent times.

此外，我們的員工平均獲得了公司歷史上最高的績效獎金，在員工工資的基礎上增加了 10.5% 或近 6 週的工資。我們的員工在提供護理方面做得非常出色。我要感謝他們所有人所做的工作，以確保航空集團即使在動盪時期也能表現出色。

Earlier this year, we identified 3 key priorities to strengthen our competitive advantage and prepare for future growth. Our teams delivered on each of these priorities, including: one, completing our labor deals. We signed 5 labor contracts in 2022, all of which include significant improvements for our people and creates stability and clarity for our company and employees.

今年早些時候，我們確定了 3 個關鍵優先事項，以加強我們的競爭優勢並為未來的增長做好準備。我們的團隊完成了這些優先事項中的每一項，包括：第一，完成我們的勞務交易。我們在 2022 年簽署了 5 份勞動合同，所有這些合同都包括對我們員工的重大改進，並為我們的公司和員工創造穩定性和清晰度。

With these in place, we are well positioned to fully focus on our future; two, fortifying our operational reliability. Despite challenges throughout the year, we finished 2022 with one of the industry's best completion and on-time performance rates. Operational Integrity is the foundation of a healthy airline, and we remain focused on balancing our growth aspirations with consistent delivery of the operational excellence Alaska is known for; and three, executing our single fleet transitions at both Alaska and Horizon.

有了這些，我們就可以完全專注於我們的未來；第二，加強我們的運營可靠性。儘管全年都面臨挑戰，但我們在 2022 年取得了業界最佳的完成率和準時率之一。運營誠信是一家健康航空公司的基礎，我們仍然專注於平衡我們的增長願望與始終如一地提供阿拉斯加著名的卓越運營；第三，在阿拉斯加和地平線執行我們的單一艦隊過渡。

On January 8, we flew our last A320 revenue service flight, and today marks the final Q400 flight leaving only 10 A321s in the fleet through year-end. We have retired over 60 aircraft in the last few months, paving the way to more cost-efficient and productive operations in both our regional and mainline business.

1 月 8 日，我們完成了最後一次 A320 收入服務飛行，今天標誌著 Q400 的最後一次飛行，到年底機隊中僅剩 10 架 A321。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經退役了 60 多架飛機，為我們的支線和乾線業務的更具成本效益和生產力的運營鋪平了道路。

As we take off 2023, we're taking with us many lessons learned. We closed out a solid year, and we are committed to make 2023 even better. Our leadership team has a clear set of strategic initiatives that will support our growth aspirations, expand margins and improve operational excellence.

當我們在 2023 年起飛時，我們將吸取許多經驗教訓。我們結束了堅實的一年，我們致力於讓 2023 年變得更好。我們的領導團隊有一套明確的戰略舉措，將支持我們的增長願望、擴大利潤和提高卓越運營。

For the full year, we expect to achieve adjusted pretax margins of between 9% and 12%. This morning, we introduced an earnings guide of $5.50 to $7.50 per share, which implies restoration to 2019 EPS levels at the midpoint. Delivering on these targets will be challenging and will require us to leverage our competitive strengths. Undoubtedly, there have been structural shifts within the industry, but history has proven time and again that cost discipline and a strong balance sheet are required to win in the airline business.

對於全年，我們預計調整後的稅前利潤率將達到 9% 至 12%。今天早上，我們發布了每股 5.50 美元至 7.50 美元的收益指南，這意味著將恢復到 2019 年每股收益的中點水平。實現這些目標將具有挑戰性，需要我們利用我們的競爭優勢。毋庸置疑，行業內發生了結構性轉變，但歷史一再證明，要在航空業務中取勝，必須遵守成本紀律和穩健的資產負債表。

This is the heart of Air Group's DNA, and we continue to believe low cost and high productivity matter and that pursuing both benefits all stakeholders. Productivity is not where it used to be in this post-pandemic era, and it can be debated what is structural and what is temporary, but our leadership team is dedicated to driving down unit cost in 2023 as we restore flying and begin to close the productivity gap.

這是 Air Group DNA 的核心，我們仍然相信低成本和高生產率很重要，追求這兩者對所有利益相關者都有好處。在這個後大流行時代，生產率已不如以往，可以爭論什麼是結構性的，什麼是暫時的，但我們的領導團隊致力於在 2023 年降低單位成本，因為我們恢復飛行並開始關閉生產力差距。

This strategy is largely enabled by our single fleet transition and the up gauge benefits that come with our new MAX fleet. Two critical factors to successful capacity growth in 2023 will continue to be staffing and aircraft availability. We had success in hiring nearly 8,000 people in 2022, and are confident in our plans to hire 3,500 more in 2023.

這一戰略在很大程度上得益於我們的單一機隊轉型和我們新的 MAX 機隊帶來的升級優勢。 2023 年運力成功增長的兩個關鍵因素將繼續是人員配備和飛機可用性。我們在 2022 年成功招聘了近 8,000 名員工，並對我們在 2023 年再招聘 3,500 名員工的計劃充滿信心。

And as it relates to aircraft, we remain in close communication with Boeing and have a high degree of confidence in our fleet planning assumptions as well. Having factored in the appropriate buffer in both these areas, we are confident in our 2023 plans to grow 8% to 10% versus prior year, so long as demand and the economic environment continue to support it.

由於它與飛機有關，我們與波音公司保持密切溝通，並對我們的機隊規劃假設也充滿信心。考慮到這兩個領域的適當緩衝，我們有信心我們的 2023 年計劃比上一年增長 8% 到 10%，只要需求和經濟環境繼續支持它。

Lastly, the revenue road map we outlined at our March Investor Day will provide valuable contributions in 2023 and continue to build to our $400 million target. Through focus on cost discipline and growing revenue opportunities, we have a tangible path to expand margins, and our team is excited to deliver on these in 2023.

最後，我們在 3 月投資者日概述的收入路線圖將在 2023 年做出寶貴貢獻，並繼續實現我們 4 億美元的目標。通過專注於成本控制和增加收入機會，我們有一條切實可行的途徑來擴大利潤，我們的團隊很高興能在 2023 年實現這些目標。

To wrap up, our goal throughout the pandemic has been to emerge a stronger, more competitive airline and the steps we've taken to date ensure we're on that path. We have the people, the resources, the knowledge, and the discipline to drive performance. I am proud of the results we achieved in 2022, but even more so, I'm looking forward to the opportunities ahead of us as we deliver on our financial and strategic initiatives in 2023 and beyond.

總而言之，我們在整個大流行期間的目標是打造一家更強大、更具競爭力的航空公司，而我們迄今為止採取的措施確保我們走上了這條道路。我們擁有推動績效的人員、資源、知識和紀律。我為我們在 2022 年取得的成果感到自豪，但更重要的是，我期待著我們在 2023 年及以後實施財務和戰略計劃時面臨的機遇。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will focus on our fourth quarter and full year results, along with first quarter guidance. Fourth quarter revenues totaled $2.5 billion. That's up 11.3% versus the fourth quarter of 2019, notwithstanding our capacity was down nearly 10%. These strong results included the impact of severe winter conditions that we experienced over the peak holiday travel period in December.

謝謝，本，大家早上好。我今天的評論將集中在我們的第四季度和全年業績，以及第一季度的指導意見上。第四季度總收入為 25 億美元。這比 2019 年第四季度增長了 11.3%，儘管我們的產能下降了近 10%。這些強勁的業績包括我們在 12 月的假日旅遊高峰期經歷的嚴冬條件的影響。

The storm reduced revenue by approximately $45 million. Notwithstanding this, we achieved unit revenue increases of 23% for the quarter with robust loads, which exceeded 2019 levels and came in at 85.5%. More impressively, as Ben mentioned, our full year revenues came in at $9.6 billion, and that's up 10% versus 2019 on 9% less capacity. This resulted in industry-leading full year unit revenues, which were up 21% versus 2019, capping off a strong year of outperformance and demonstrating the leverage of our commercial initiatives, power of our network and a constructive pricing environment.

這場風暴使收入減少了大約 4500 萬美元。儘管如此，我們在本季度實現了 23% 的單位收入增長，負載強勁，超過 2019 年的水平，達到 85.5%。更令人印象深刻的是，正如 Ben 提到的那樣，我們的全年收入達到了 96 億美元，與 2019 年相比增長了 10%，而產能減少了 9%。這導致了行業領先的全年單位收入，比 2019 年增長了 21%，結束了強勁的一年表現，並展示了我們商業計劃的影響力、我們網絡的力量和建設性的定價環境。

Turning to product and loyalty. As has been the case all year, we continued to benefit from strong demand in our premium products. First Class was up 19% and Premium Class up 14% versus the fourth quarter of 2019, with paid load factors up 6 points and 2 points, respectively. As we reflect on the full year of 2022, we were able to drive an increase in Premium revenues of nearly $0.5 billion or 20% above 2019.

轉向產品和忠誠度。與全年一樣，我們繼續受益於對優質產品的強勁需求。與 2019 年第四季度相比，頭等艙增長 19%，高級艙增長 14%，付費載客率分別上升 6 個百分點和 2 個百分點。回顧 2022 年全年，我們能夠推動保費收入增長近 5 億美元，比 2019 年增長 20%。

Our loyalty program has also been significant revenue driver given our renewed credit card deal with Bank of America. Cash remuneration from the bank was up 42% versus the fourth quarter of '19 and 39% for the full year. As a reminder, product and loyalty represented roughly half of our $400 million commercial initiatives, and we expect to achieve product and loyalty's full run rate in 2023.

鑑於我們與美國銀行續簽信用卡協議，我們的忠誠度計劃也成為重要的收入驅動因素。與 19 年第四季度相比，銀行的現金薪酬增長了 42%，全年增長了 39%。提醒一下，產品和忠誠度約占我們 4 億美元商業計劃的一半，我們預計將在 2023 年實現產品和忠誠度的全速運行。

Regarding network and alliances, we are encouraged by the results we've seen through our partnerships in oneworld. Through increased opportunities that we simply did not have before the pandemic, including joint contracting with American and working with Amex GBT.

關於網絡和聯盟，我們對我們在 oneworld 的合作夥伴關係所取得的成果感到鼓舞。通過增加我們在大流行之前根本沒有的機會，包括與美國聯合承包和與美國運通 GBT 合作。

We have meaningfully improved our corporate share gap and continue to experience higher traffic volumes facilitated by our alliance partnerships. And we are stepping up our airline partners selling capability in 2023, which will help us offering full partner inventory for 10 global carriers on alaskaair.com by year-end. These partners include American Airlines, IAG, Japan Airlines, Qatar and Qantas, an expanded global network that we can sell and market as our own is compelling for our guests, and we expect our airline partner revenue to reach 8% to 10% of total Air Group revenues by 2025.

我們已經顯著改善了我們的企業份額差距，並繼續體驗到我們的聯盟夥伴關係帶來的更高流量。我們將在 2023 年加強航空公司合作夥伴的銷售能力，這將有助於我們在年底前在 alaskaair.com 上為 10 家全球航空公司提供完整的合作夥伴庫存。這些合作夥伴包括美國航空、IAG、日本航空、卡塔爾和澳洲航空，我們可以像自己一樣進行銷售和營銷的擴展全球網絡對我們的客人很有吸引力，我們預計我們的航空公司合作夥伴收入將達到總收入的 8% 至 10%航空集團到 2025 年的收入。

Turning to corporate travel. We experienced a softening in bookings during the fourth quarter from those in the late summer peaks, exiting 2022 at approximately 75% recovered on a volume basis and 85% recovered on a revenue basis. West Coast business remains less recovered, which is not surprising given the significant workforce reductions happening across large technology companies located up and down the coast, where we primarily operate.

轉向公司旅行。與夏末高峰期相比，我們在第四季度的預訂量有所放緩，到 2022 年，銷量恢復了約 75%，收入恢復了 85%。西海岸的業務仍未恢復，考慮到我們主要經營的海岸上下的大型科技公司正在大量裁員，這並不奇怪。

Despite the choppiness we've seen in this segment, business.

儘管我們在這一領域看到了動盪，但業務。

Travel has trended in a positive direction in the last few weeks. While we don't expect continued recovery to be linear, over time, we do still expect to fully restore our business revenue based on our improved opportunity set.

過去幾週，旅行趨勢向好。雖然我們不希望持續的複蘇是線性的，但隨著時間的推移，我們仍然希望根據我們改進的機會集完全恢復我們的業務收入。

Looking ahead to guidance for the first quarter. We expect total revenue to be up 29% to 32% year-over-year on capacity that is up 11% to 14% as we lap weak comps when Omicron reached its peak in the first quarter of '22. Q1 is always our weakest quarter of the year, but leisure travel remains healthy and yields are holding steady.

展望第一季度的指導。我們預計總收入將同比增長 29% 至 32%，產能將增長 11% 至 14%，因為當 Omicron 在 22 年第一季度達到頂峰時，我們的表現不佳。第一季度始終是我們一年中最疲軟的季度，但休閒旅遊依然健康，收益率保持穩定。

For the full year, we expect revenue to be up 8% to 10% on flat unit revenue. Our 8% to 10% growth in 2023 will continue to focus on deepening the connections of our network while growing the Pacific Northwest and restoring California. Approximately 2/3 of our growth will be focused in the Pacific Northwest and 1/3 in California and will not be overly dilutive to our yields as much of it will be added to our strongest markets where demand exceeded supply in 2022. Importantly, 85% of growth comes from increased gauge and stage. This is the most efficient capacity growth of any year that I can recall at Alaska Airlines.

對於全年，我們預計收入將在單位收入持平的基礎上增長 8% 至 10%。我們 2023 年 8% 到 10% 的增長將繼續專注於深化我們網絡的聯繫，同時發展太平洋西北地區和恢復加利福尼亞。我們大約 2/3 的增長將集中在太平洋西北部，1/3 集中在加利福尼亞，並且不會過度稀釋我們的收益，因為其中大部分將增加到我們最強勁的市場，這些市場在 2022 年將供不應求。重要的是，85增長的百分比來自增加的規格和階段。這是我在阿拉斯加航空公司記得的任何一年中最有效的運力增長。

In closing, my team and I are squarely focused on 2022 as our baseline year, which represented industry-leading unit revenue and profitability. And from that base, we look forward to building an even stronger result for 2023. The economics of our renewed credit card will continue to build this year. Our alliances and partnerships are set to gain further momentum as we improve our corporate share and international travel continues to unlock.

最後，我和我的團隊將 2022 年作為我們的基準年，這代表著行業領先的單位收入和盈利能力。在此基礎上，我們期待在 2023 年取得更強勁的業績。我們更新的信用卡的經濟效益將在今年繼續增長。隨著我們提高公司份額和國際旅行的持續開放，我們的聯盟和合作夥伴關係將獲得進一步的發展勢頭。

Our premium seat mix and up gauging opportunities will also grow as we take 37 MAX deliveries where 22% of seats are premium. This combination drives further unit revenue momentum that we believe will be a differentiator for us going forward. I'm excited for what our commercial team is set to deliver in 2023.

隨著我們交付 37 MAX，其中 22% 的座位是高級座位，我們的高級座位組合和升級機會也將增加。這種結合推動了進一步的單位收入勢頭，我們相信這將成為我們前進的差異化因素。我對我們的商業團隊將在 2023 年交付的成果感到興奮。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Shane.

有了這個，我會把它傳遞給 Shane。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. As you heard from Ben, our full year 7.6% adjusted pretax margin led the industry and is a great result for us given how the year started and the challenges we experienced rescaling our company in the face of incredible demand for travel.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。正如您從 Ben 那裡聽到的那樣，我們全年 7.6% 的調整後稅前利潤率在行業中處於領先地位，這對我們來說是一個很好的結果，因為今年是如何開始的，以及我們在面對令人難以置信的旅行需求時重新調整公司規模所遇到的挑戰。

We are especially proud that all of our people will receive significant performance-based bonuses in February given their achievements this year. We are looking forward to further building towards our long-term financial goals in 2023 by remaining focused on running a reliable operation, driving unit cost and productivity improvements and delivering on our commercial road map.

我們感到特別自豪的是，鑑於他們今年的成就，我們所有的員工都將在 2 月獲得基於績效的可觀獎金。我們期待通過繼續專注於運行可靠的運營、推動單位成本和生產力改進以及實現我們的商業路線圖，進一步實現我們 2023 年的長期財務目標。

Turning to Q4 results and an update on our balance sheet. We ended the year with debt to cap of 49%, within our target range of 40% to 50% and still among the strongest in the industry. Debt payments during the fourth quarter were approximately $50 million. For full year 2023, debt repayments are modest, totaling approximately $280 million with $100 million in the first quarter.

轉向第四季度的結果和我們資產負債表的更新。我們年底的債務上限為 49%，在我們 40% 至 50% 的目標範圍內，並且仍然是業內最強的。第四季度的債務支付額約為 5000 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，債務償還額不大，總計約 2.8 億美元，其中第一季度為 1 億美元。

Cash flow from operations totaled $1.4 billion for full year 2022 and total liquidity inclusive of on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit ended the year at $2.8 billion, a great result, given that we continue to pay cash for our CapEx in 2022, which was one of the highest CapEx years in our history.

2022 年全年運營現金流總計 14 億美元，包括手頭現金和未提取信貸額度在內的流動性總額在年底達到 28 億美元，這是一個很好的結果，因為我們將在 2022 年繼續為我們的資本支出支付現金，這是我們歷史上資本支出最高的年份之一。

In addition to top of industry margins and our balance sheet strength, our trailing 12-month return on invested capital reached 9% in 2022, above our cost of capital and approaching our long-term target range. Our balance sheet strength, our cash position and our margin and return on capital results allowed us to take 2 other important steps towards the end of 2022.

除了最高的行業利潤率和我們的資產負債表實力，我們過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率在 2022 年達到 9%，高於我們的資本成本並接近我們的長期目標範圍。我們的資產負債表實力、現金狀況以及利潤率和資本回報率結果使我們能夠在 2022 年底前採取另外兩個重要步驟。

First, we announced in December our plan to restart share repurchases in the first quarter of 2023, initially focused on offsetting dilution. And second, we secured an expanded order book with Boeing now having firm and option aircraft positions through the rest of this decade, given overall aircraft and engine demand and ongoing supply chain challenges, having access to positions for the next 7-plus years will, we believe, prove to be beneficial strategically as it provides us maximum fleet flexibility on great terms.

首先，我們在 12 月宣布了在 2023 年第一季度重啟股票回購的計劃，最初的重點是抵消稀釋。其次，鑑於整體飛機和發動機需求以及持續的供應鏈挑戰，我們獲得了一份擴大的訂單，波音公司現在在本十年剩餘時間裡擁有固定和可選的飛機位置，在未來 7 年多的時間裡，獲得這些位置將，我們相信，證明在戰略上是有益的，因為它以優惠的條件為我們提供了最大的機隊靈活性。

Turning to costs. In Q4, CASMex increased 24% versus 2019, approximately 1 point above our guide driven entirely by lost capacity and incremental costs as a result of the severe winter weather in November and December. Absent this impact, our Q4 CASMex would have slightly beat our guide.

轉向成本。在第四季度，CASMex 比 2019 年增長了 24%，比我們的指南高出約 1 個百分點，這完全是由於 11 月和 12 月的嚴冬天氣導致的產能損失和增量成本。如果沒有這種影響，我們的第四季度 CASMex 會略高於我們的指南。

Our full year CASMex in capacity ended the year within our guided ranges at up 20% and down 9%, respectively, versus 2019. And as a reminder, we do continue to include the cost of our performance-based bonus and incentive pay programs in our unit costs. For the full year, this represented approximately 2 points of unit cost pressure versus 2019 and was materially more impactful on our unit costs than other airlines. Our beliefs about what will drive long-term success and value in the airline industry remain largely intact and consistent with what we believed pre-pandemic.

與 2019 年相比，我們全年的 CASMex 產能在我們的指導範圍內結束，分別增長 20% 和下降 9%。提醒一下，我們確實繼續將基於績效的獎金和激勵薪酬計劃的成本包括在我們的單位成本。就全年而言，與 2019 年相比，這代表了大約 2 個單位成本壓力，並且對我們單位成本的影響比其他航空公司大得多。我們對什麼將推動航空業的長期成功和價值的信念基本保持不變，並與我們在大流行前的信念保持一致。

We firmly believe a strong balance sheet and low relative costs will be the ultimate drivers of business stability and success. We remain focused on and confident in both of these areas. Our balance sheet is strong and based on 2023 guides, Alaska is positioned to achieve the best unit cost result within the industry this year, helping us maintain or improve our pre-pandemic relative cost position.

我們堅信，強大的資產負債表和較低的相對成本將是業務穩定和成功的最終驅動力。我們仍然專注於這兩個領域並充滿信心。我們的資產負債表強勁，根據 2023 年指南，阿拉斯加有望在今年實現業內最佳單位成本結果，幫助我們維持或改善大流行前的相對成本狀況。

Looking ahead to 2023, our current schedule has us returning to pre-pandemic levels of capacity during the first half of the year. Maintaining operational safety and reliability remains our top priority, and we will have continued modest cost headwinds as we complete the transition training related to our fleet transitions.

展望 2023 年，我們目前的時間表讓我們在今年上半年恢復到大流行前的產能水平。保持運營安全性和可靠性仍然是我們的首要任務，隨著我們完成與機隊過渡相關的過渡培訓，我們將繼續面臨適度的成本阻力。

However, we are planning for solid improvements to our overall fleet utilization and levels of productivity during 2023, and are focused on reducing unit costs on a year-over-year basis. For the first quarter, we expect capacity to be up 11% to 14% with CASMex down 0% to 2% year-over-year. And for the full year, we continue to expect capacity to be up 8% to 10% with CASMex down 1% to 3% on a year-over-year basis.

但是，我們計劃在 2023 年大幅提高整體機隊利用率和生產力水平，並專注於逐年降低單位成本。對於第一季度，我們預計運力將增長 11% 至 14%，而 CASMex 同比下降 0% 至 2%。對於全年，我們繼續預計運力將增長 8% 至 10%，而 CASMex 將同比下降 1% 至 3%。

Touching on fuel. Oil prices have moderated from 2022 levels but remain elevated. Refining spreads also remain volatile. We currently expect fuel price per gallon to be $3.15 to $3.35 for the first quarter and $3.10 to $3.30 for the full year. Our significant 2022 benefit from hedging, which was approximately $170 million will likely turn to a net cost in 2023.

觸及燃料。油價已從 2022 年的水平回落，但仍處於高位。煉油利差也依然波動。我們目前預計第一季度每加侖燃油價格為 3.15 美元至 3.35 美元，全年為 3.10 美元至 3.30 美元。我們在 2022 年從對沖中獲得的巨大收益約為 1.7 億美元，到 2023 年可能會變成淨成本。

As a reminder, our hedging program uses 20% out of the money call options only, and our strike prices are above what we anticipate oil prices will be during the year. Taken all together, as Ben mentioned, we expect margins to improve this year with our full year adjusted pretax margin guide of 9% to 12%.

提醒一下，我們的對沖計劃僅使用 20% 的貨幣看漲期權，而且我們的行使價高於我們預期的年內油價。綜上所述，正如 Ben 所提到的，我們預計今年的利潤率將有所提高，我們的全年調整後稅前利潤率指南為 9% 至 12%。

This incorporates the full structural impact of our ratified labor contracts, contributing approximately 3 points to our full year CASMex. And while we are optimistic about demand for travel this year, we are also cognizant of the uncertain economic backdrop we are operating in, and we'll adjust capacity accordingly this year if we need to. One of our primary strengths over the years has been to execute our plans.

這包含了我們批准的勞動合同的全部結構性影響，為我們全年的 CASMex 貢獻了大約 3 個百分點。雖然我們對今年的旅遊需求持樂觀態度，但我們也意識到我們所處的不確定經濟背景，如果需要，我們今年將相應調整運力。多年來，我們的主要優勢之一就是執行我們的計劃。

In 2022, we certainly experienced volatility and some setbacks. But overall, we executed on the major components of our recovery plan and have a strong foundation to work from in 2023. We have most of our labor deals completed. We are through the majority of our fleet transition. We were one of the most reliable airlines in the industry. We've got a solid balance sheet and a great aircraft order book. And we are now focused on improving utilization, productivity and delivering on more of our commercial road map as we attempt to lead the industry again in financial performance in 2023.

2022年，我們當然經歷了波動和一些挫折。但總的來說，我們執行了恢復計劃的主要部分，並為 2023 年的工作打下了堅實的基礎。我們已經完成了大部分勞務交易。我們正在完成大部分機隊過渡。我們是業內最可靠的航空公司之一。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表和出色的飛機訂單簿。我們現在專注於提高利用率、生產力並實現更多的商業路線圖，因為我們試圖在 2023 年再次引領行業的財務業績。

And with that, let's go to your questions.

有了這個，讓我們回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Andrew Didora with Bank of America Global Research.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自美國銀行全球研究部的 Andrew Didora。

Andrew, jus you got the RASM premium last year even with kind of the West Coast corporate travel not showing as much growth as other areas. Based on guys out of other airlines and your guidance this morning, doesn't seem like you're assuming much of a further RASM growth premium here. Just curious, what are you baking into your guide in terms of corporate travel recovery here in 2023? And do you think there's the opportunity for that RASM premium to kind of maintain throughout this year?

安德魯，即使西海岸商務旅行的增長不如其他地區那麼多，你去年也獲得了 RASM 溢價。根據其他航空公司的人和你今天早上的指導，你似乎並沒有在這裡假設 RASM 的進一步增長溢價。只是好奇，您在 2023 年公司差旅恢復方面的指南中提到了什麼？你認為 RASM 溢價有機會在今年保持某種程度嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. So a couple of things. I think firstly, and to your point, we did have the higher benchmark last year. If you look at the industry's guide for this year, I think we're all saying unit revenue is about flat. So we're in line with that. I do think, as I shared in my prepared remarks that we may have more upside in the corporate side than perhaps others on a relative basis.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。所以有幾件事。我想首先，就你的觀點而言，我們去年確實有更高的基準。如果你看看今年的行業指南，我想我們都在說單位收入基本持平。所以我們符合這一點。我確實認為，正如我在準備好的發言中分享的那樣，相對而言，我們在企業方面的優勢可能比其他方面更大。

So I do see that there is opportunity there. And of course, as you're well aware, we really peak in the second and certainly, the third quarter. And again, industry capacity is not back to where it was in '19. So again, there could be upside here. But right now, we're in a pretty good place.

所以我確實看到那裡有機會。當然，正如您所知，我們確實在第二季度達到頂峰，當然還有第三季度。而且，行業產能並沒有回到 19 年的水平。因此，這裡可能還有上行空間。但是現在，我們處於一個非常好的位置。

Got it. And then a question for Shane, just in regards to that kind of peaking in 2Q and 3Q. When we think about capacity in CASM for the rest of the year, do you expect these to be fairly consistent across the quarters going forward here? Or is there like any lumpiness that we should build into our models?

知道了。然後是 Shane 的一個問題，關於第二季度和第三季度的那種峰值。當我們考慮今年剩餘時間 CASM 的容量時，您是否希望這些在未來幾個季度保持相當一致？或者我們應該在我們的模型中構建任何塊狀物？

Andrew, thanks. From a capacity perspective, it's pretty sequentially modest Q4, Q1, Q1 to Q2, Q2 to Q3, there is a step-up in the second half of the year, but it's very reasonable, I think. In terms of unit cost, I think flattish for the first half of the year, consistent with our Q1 guide, obviously, and then a little bit of momentum in the back half of the year. It's not exaggerated. It's sort of flattish first half of the year and then single-digit-ish in the second half of the year. So I don't think there's a big swing quarter-to-quarter that you guys need to expect from us this year.

安德魯，謝謝。從容量的角度來看，Q4、Q1、Q1 到 Q2、Q2 到 Q3 的順序相當適中，下半年有一個提升，但我認為這是非常合理的。就單位成本而言，我認為上半年持平，顯然與我們的第一季度指南一致，然後在下半年有一點勢頭。這並不誇張。今年上半年有點持平，然後在下半年達到個位數。所以我認為你們今年不需要對我們抱有太大的期望。

Our next question will come from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

I know your pilot contract has a snap up or a me-too clause. But as I recall, it's a little complex. Can you remind us of the mechanics of that mechanism? When do look backs occur? What's the group of airlines that you comp against? And I can obviously do my own analysis, but if you have Alaska estimate based on Delta becoming the market, I'm all ears, but we can do that work on our end.

我知道你們的試點合同有搶購或模仿條款。但我記得，它有點複雜。你能提醒我們該機制的機制嗎？什麼時候回頭看？您與哪些航空公司競爭？我顯然可以做我自己的分析，但如果你根據達美航空成為市場的阿拉斯加估計，我洗耳恭聽，但我們可以自己做這項工作。

Yes, Jamie, I'll give you the very complicated formula and then you guys can do the math. It's the simple average of the 4 larger airlines than us and JetBlue, and we look at it on September 1. So you can make sort of estimates about what you think the industry would have ratified by that point in time and pretty easily back into what you think the impact might be relative to the scheduled 4% downline raise.

是的，傑米，我會給你一個非常複雜的公式，然後你們就可以算一下了。這是比我們和 JetBlue 大的 4 家航空公司的簡單平均值，我們在 9 月 1 日查看它。因此您可以對您認為該行業在那個時間點批准的內容進行某種估計，並且很容易回到什麼您認為影響可能與預定的 4% 下線加薪有關。

So we're happy that we have this, by the way, in the contract. We don't want our pilots to fall behind. And we knew going first that we had to have some mechanism to make sure that we kept up with the market if it went to a different place than we were expecting.

所以我們很高興我們在合同中有這個。我們不希望我們的飛行員落後。我們知道先行一步，我們必須有一些機制來確保我們在市場走向與我們預期不同的地方時跟上市場。

Okay. Perfect. I appreciate the color. And then on oneworld, you said reaching 10% of group revenue by 2025. That's the goal you gave, right?

好的。完美的。我很欣賞這種顏色。然後在 oneworld 上，你說到 2025 年達到集團收入的 10%。這就是你給的目標，對吧？

8% to 10%. Okay.

8% 到 10%。好的。

8% to 10%, okay. So I've always assumed that connecting revenue or alliance revenue is less profitable than local revenue. Obviously, if the connecting revenue is entirely incremental, it's highly accretive. I know -- and maybe my assumption is flawed. I know you've been really bulled up on your one rolled membership. But on a margin basis, how does that 8% to 10% compared to your core flying.

8% 到 10%，可以。所以我一直認為連接收入或聯盟收入的利潤低於本地收入。顯然，如果連接收入完全是增量的，那麼它就具有很高的增值性。我知道——也許我的假設是有缺陷的。我知道你真的被你的一次性會員資格欺負了。但在保證金的基礎上，與您的核心飛行相比，這 8% 到 10% 是多少。

Well, I think -- so a couple of things. And again, just what we've seen this year, especially with American Airlines and not just international but domestically, connecting over their hubs and even some local market code share we have. We participated in American strong revenue environment as well where their corporate travelers or leisure travelers or connecting beyond need to utilize our network to help make for a better, shorter trip.

好吧，我想 - 有幾件事。再一次，這正是我們今年所看到的，尤其是美國航空公司，不僅是國際航空公司，還有國內航空公司，通過他們的樞紐甚至我們擁有的一些本地市場代碼共享進行連接。我們參與了美國強大的收入環境，以及他們的商務旅客或休閒旅客或連接以外的地方需要利用我們的網絡來幫助實現更好、更短的旅行。

So overall, I've been very happy with the yields that have been produced. And again, as we go into this year with international travel and the proration of the strong international fares, again, from what we had last year, I think these are all positive momentum for us.

所以總的來說，我對已經產生的產量非常滿意。再一次，隨著我們進入今年的國際旅行和按比例分配強勁的國際票價，與去年相比，我認為這些都是我們的積極勢頭。

And our next question will come from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Catherine O'Brien。

So in December, you guys have some really unusual weather that drove the operational issues you saw not being that preparing for an ice storm on Christmas should be the operational base case, but some of your peers are talking about the need to have permanently higher buffers to protect the operation.

所以在 12 月，你們遇到了一些非常不尋常的天氣，這些天氣導致了你們看到的運營問題，而不是為聖誕節的冰暴做準備應該是運營的基本情況，但你們的一些同行正在談論需要永久更高的緩衝區以保護操作。

Do you believe that you already had the appropriate buffers in place for 8% to 10% capacity guide for 2023 and December didn't really to change anything. Some color there would be great.

您是否認為您已經為 2023 年 8% 到 10% 的容量指南設置了適當的緩衝區，而 12 月並沒有真正改變任何事情。有一些顏色會很棒。

Maybe I'll just speak to '23, and you can speak to the December event. By the way, welcome back, Catie, it's good to hear from you. I think we do have sufficient buffers in our capacity plan and our staffing plan to ensure that we're not overstressing the network. If you look at the second half of the year, once we sorted out our April issues with pilot training, we were amongst the best in the industry on both on time and completion rate.

也許我只談 23 年，你可以談 12 月的活動。順便說一句，歡迎回來，凱蒂，很高興收到你的來信。我認為我們的容量計劃和人員配置計劃中確實有足夠的緩衝，以確保我們不會對網絡造成過大的壓力。如果你看看今年下半年，一旦我們解決了 4 月份的飛行員培訓問題，我們在準時率和完成率方面都是業內最好的。

Yes, this was a -- although it's becoming the norm because it happened last year as well. This was a pretty unique event that lasted multiple days and did ice over our aircraft here in Seattle and in Portland and actually in other parts of the Pacific Northwest. So it was a pretty unique event. And I think it's probably not -- we're not going to assume that it happens to us every single year, but we do have to build some more resiliency in irregular ops for sure.

是的，這是一個 - 儘管它正在成為常態，因為它也發生在去年。這是一個非常獨特的事件，持續了好幾天，我們在西雅圖和波特蘭以及太平洋西北部其他地區的飛機都結冰了。所以這是一個非常獨特的事件。而且我認為這可能不是——我們不會假設它每年都會發生在我們身上，但我們確實必須在非常規操作中建立更多的彈性。

Yes, Catie, it's Ben. Having done operations in my whole career. I mean you can look at it a couple of ways. You can create a massive amount of buffer for an event that might not happen or you can go in with the appropriate level of staffing with some additional cushion to deal with winter events. But things like ice storms are massive events that cripple a city, and there's not a lot you can do no matter how much buffer you put in, there's nothing you can do to operate in an ice storm.

是的，凱蒂，是本。在我的整個職業生涯中都做過手術。我的意思是你可以通過幾種方式來看待它。您可以為可能不會發生的事件創建大量緩衝區，或者您可以使用適當級別的人員配備一些額外的緩衝來處理冬季事件。但是像冰暴這樣的大事件會摧毀一座城市，無論你投入多少緩衝，你都無能為力，在冰暴中你無能為力。

So what -- our mindset is create a robust schedule that we can operate in the peak periods or peak periods where there's -- where we're susceptible to weather, create additional buffers but it's got to be managed appropriately. So we were good. This was just a big event, and I'm pretty proud of the team and how we dug out of it and got back on track.

那麼——我們的心態是製定一個穩健的時間表，我們可以在高峰期或高峰期運營——在那裡我們容易受到天氣的影響，創造額外的緩衝，但必須對其進行適當的管理。所以我們很好。這只是一件大事，我為團隊以及我們如何擺脫困境並重回正軌感到非常自豪。

Totally understandable. I mean just seeing some of the scenes in Seattle, it definitely seems like a unique event. So maybe just one then. Great to have most of the fleet transition behind you. Can you just help us think about some of the moving pieces on the P&L for this year, underlying your full year CASMex guidance. I know you mentioned some elevated training in your prepared remarks, Shane, but anything else we should be thinking about that as go-forward might roll off, that's unique to the fleet transition of Alaska.

完全可以理解。我的意思是只看到西雅圖的一些場景，這絕對看起來像是一個獨特的事件。所以也許只有一個。很高興讓大部分艦隊過渡在你身後。您能否幫助我們考慮一下今年損益表中的一些變化，這是您全年 CASMex 指導的基礎。我知道你在準備好的發言中提到了一些高級訓練，Shane，但我們應該考慮的任何其他事情，因為前進可能會開始，這對阿拉斯加艦隊過渡來說是獨一無二的。

Yes. I don't think there's anything sort of major. A lot of the expenses related to returning the lease aircraft we took through special last year. So we don't expect a lot of noise this year in the P&L related to the fleet transition. The biggest cost piece is that we're completing the transition training of pilots by and large in the first quarter, slipping a tiny bit into the second quarter. But that's really it in terms of fleet transition-related specific costs in the P&L.

是的。我不認為有什麼重大的事情。很多費用與我們去年通過特殊方式獲得的租賃飛機的歸還有關。因此，我們預計今年與機隊轉型相關的損益表不會有太多噪音。最大的成本是我們在第一季度基本完成了飛行員的過渡培訓，第二季度略有下滑。但就損益表中與車隊過渡相關的特定成本而言，這確實是這樣。

I don't think anything else is different than what you've seen across most of the industry. We have airport costs that remain an area of growth in terms of the P&L. I think that's consistent with the entire industry. And then certainly, labor costs have gone up structurally. And as we grow, they're going to continue to go up as we hire more people to fund that growth. But everything else looks pretty normal, I would say, in terms of trend, nothing to really point out.

我認為其他任何事情都與您在大多數行業中看到的不同。我們的機場成本在損益方面仍然是一個增長領域。我認為這與整個行業是一致的。當然，勞動力成本已經結構性上升。隨著我們的成長，隨著我們僱用更多的人來資助這種增長，它們將繼續上升。但其他一切看起來都很正常，我想說，就趨勢而言，沒有什麼可指出的。

And we'll go next to Helane Becker with Cowen & Company.

接下來我們將與 Cowen & Company 的 Helane Becker 一起。

Just one quick clarification on that last point, Shane. The $120 million in the fourth quarter, then is that the end of the transition costs? Is that the way we think about that?

關於最後一點，Shane，請快速澄清一下。第四季度的 1.2 億美元，那是過渡成本的終點嗎？我們是這樣想的嗎？

Helane, this is Emily. So the $120 million that you saw in special charges in Q4 should be most of the remainder because we've put all of our estimates in for returning all the A320s. We've done all the accelerated depreciation and other charges that we're going to take on both the Q4 and the A320s. Those aircraft actually leave our property over the next 12 to 18 months. So there could be some minor true ups that come through there. The last remaining thing that you're going to see coming through special charges in 2023 is going to be whatever we end up doing with the A321s, which are still on our books. So there will be some dollars there, but there should not be much more for A320s.

海蘭，這是艾米麗。因此，您在第 4 季度看到的特殊費用中的 1.2 億美元應該是剩餘的大部分，因為我們已經將所有估算用於退回所有 A320。我們已經完成了 Q4 和 A320 的所有加速折舊和其他費用。這些飛機實際上會在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內離開我們的財產。因此，那裡可能會有一些小的真實情況。您將在 2023 年通過特殊收費看到的最後一件事將是我們最終對 A321 所做的一切，這些仍在我們的賬簿上。所以那裡會有一些美元，但 A320 應該不會更多。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on the mileage plan. I think there was an announcement that there are new benefits that are accruing to your members beginning like I want to say around now. Maybe, Andrew, can you talk about that and how that should benefit your revenue line?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是里程計劃。我想有一個公告說，您的會員開始獲得新的好處，就像我現在想說的那樣。也許，安德魯，你能談談這個以及它如何使你的收入線受益嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Helane. So 2 things. Certainly, for our loyalty guest members, there is some really cool incremental benefits as it relates to bonus miles for subscriptions, boarding priorities. And even if you hold Bank of America accounts, you'll get bonuses there. So there's a lot of good things there. I think specifically for Air Group, a couple of things for new cardholders, there's going to be some minimum spend thresholds, which we've never had before.

是的。謝謝，海蘭。所以兩件事。當然，對於我們的忠誠客人會員，有一些非常酷的增量好處，因為它與訂閱獎勵里程、登機優先權有關。即使您持有美國銀行賬戶，您也會在那裡獲得獎金。所以那裡有很多好東西。我認為特別是對於 Air Group 來說，對於新持卡人來說，有幾件事情，將會有一些最低消費門檻，這是我們以前從未有過的。

So I think that will add to some of the quality. And then the other thing we did have a fee increase this year, which we haven't done forever, and we're still one of, if not the lowest card membership fee. But again, that's -- that went from $75 to $95.

所以我認為這會增加一些質量。然後我們今年確實增加了另一件事，我們沒有永遠這樣做過，我們仍然是其中之一，如果不是最低的會員費。但同樣，那是——從 75 美元漲到 95 美元。

So we will participate in that goodness.

因此，我們將參與那種善良。

Okay. That's very helpful. Just on that minimum spend, just to clarify, that -- so you're talking about it. I understand what you're saying about it being a better quality customer, but do you think that you get fewer applications because you're putting that in? Do people get turned off by that?

好的。這很有幫助。就最低支出而言，只是為了澄清——所以你在談論它。我理解您所說的成為質量更高的客戶是什麼意思，但是您是否認為您收到的應用程序更少是因為您將其放入其中？人們會因此而厭煩嗎？

No. I think again, this is just on the forward book, Helane, not the back book. But again, obviously, this is something that we'll watch. But at the end of the day, knowing what our average card spend is and all the rest of it, our guests get a lot of value from our card and the spend on the card is very, very healthy. So we think this is well within the industry. In fact, it's probably low versus the industry, but we don't have any concerns about it.

不，我再想一遍，Helane，這只是前書，而不是後書。但同樣，很明顯，這是我們將要關注的事情。但在一天結束時，知道我們的平均卡消費是多少以及其他所有信息，我們的客人從我們的卡中獲得了很多價值，並且卡上的消費非常非常健康。所以我們認為這在行業內是很好的。事實上，它可能低於行業，但我們對此沒有任何擔憂。

And since we've launched it, we've seen a lot of credit card sign-ups, right.

自從我們推出它以來，我們已經看到很多信用卡註冊，對吧。

Yes, exactly. And a lot of positive comments.

對，就是這樣。和很多積極的評論。

And our next question will come from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

In terms of the pacing benefits -- the pacing of benefits of moving to a single fleet, what are we seeing in the first quarter here, if any, and can you just remind us what are the hurdles you need to clear to realize further benefits?

就節奏收益而言——轉移到單一機隊的收益節奏，我們在第一季度在這裡看到了什麼，如果有的話，你能提醒我們你需要清除哪些障礙才能實現更多收益？

Really, it's just getting through the pilot training and getting the Dash 9s that replace the A320s here on property. We are at low 40s of Dash 9s relative to the 60-ish A319s and A320s we had. So the planes are coming. We've got a bunch more coming this year. We'll have full restoration of the fleet size as we get through the year. We'll be through all of the transition training on Horizon here in the first half of the year, mostly in the first quarter. Similar on Mainline, although we'll have these 10 A321s, I think we can pretty easily get those into 1 hub, 1 base and manage that.

真的，它只是通過飛行員培訓，並獲得替代 A320 的 Dash 9 飛機。相對於我們擁有的 60 多歲的 A319 和 A320，我們的 Dash 9 低 40 多歲。所以飛機來了。今年我們還有很多。隨著這一年的到來，我們將全面恢復機隊規模。今年上半年，我們將在這裡完成 Horizon 上的所有過渡培訓，主要是在第一季度。與 Mainline 類似，雖然我們將擁有這 10 架 A321，但我認為我們可以很容易地將它們放入 1 個樞紐、1 個基地並進行管理。

So I think Duane, the unlock is basically going to start in the second quarter and ramp through the rest of the year, and we should be at close to full run rate as we get through the fourth quarter, dependent upon what we do with the A321 transition because we still have 150 pilots, you've got to transition off of that equipment ultimately.

所以我認為 Duane，解鎖基本上會在第二季度開始，並在今年餘下時間逐漸增加，我們應該在第四季度接近全速運行，這取決於我們對A321 過渡，因為我們仍然有 150 名飛行員，你最終必須從該設備過渡。

Great answer. And then Ben, you were a -- or at least our recollection, you were a process guy historically. Historically, Alaska was very good at identifying variability, measuring variability and driving it out of your processes. Certainly, this is a different and more difficult operating environment.

很好的答案。然後 Ben，你是 - 或者至少我們的回憶，你在歷史上是一個過程的人。從歷史上看，阿拉斯加非常擅長識別可變性、測量可變性並將其從您的流程中剔除。當然，這是一個不同的、更困難的操作環境。

But do you think you still have those opportunities to drive out variability? What are the 1, 2, 3 kind of productivity initiatives you can go attack this year? Or is that just outdated thinking from a bygone era?

但是您認為您仍然有機會消除可變性嗎？今年您可以採取的第 1、2、3 種生產力舉措是什麼？還是那隻是過去時代的過時思想？

Duane, thanks for the question. It's a great question. And we talk about that a lot. Like what I'm going to tell you is that type of thinking is in our DNA. It's been in our DNA for -- I've been here for 20 years. I mean that's how we think, and that's how we wired. In terms of has it structurally changed, and that's -- it could be debated, but my view is that the airline industry isn't even back to 2019 levels of capacity. So if you talk about aerospace itself, now of course, you've got to have ATC staffing in place. We're not flying the same amount we're flying in 2019. So if you look at block times, if you look at departures, we're still less than we were in 2019. So the aerospace is essentially the same.

杜安，謝謝你的提問。這是一個很好的問題。我們經常談論這個。就像我要告訴你的那樣，這種思維方式存在於我們的 DNA 中。它一直存在於我們的 DNA 中——我在這裡已經 20 年了。我的意思是這就是我們的想法，這就是我們的接線方式。就它是否在結構上發生了變化而言，那就是——這可能是有爭議的，但我的觀點是，航空業甚至還沒有回到 2019 年的運力水平。因此，如果您現在談論航空航天本身，當然，您必須配備 ATC 人員。我們的飛行量與 2019 年不同。因此，如果你看一下封鎖時間，如果你看一下出發時間，我們仍然比 2019 年少。所以航空航天本質上是一樣的。

It's got to work from an FAA perspective. And how we look at it internally is we can still have improvements in asset utilization and people productivity. And we have already the processes and the mechanism in place to get to a better place. So is it changed a little bit? Yes. Are we going to bring it back to the left? Absolutely.

從美國聯邦航空局的角度來看，它必須起作用。我們在內部看待它的方式是，我們仍然可以提高資產利用率和人員生產力。我們已經制定了流程和機制，以實現更好的目標。所以是不是有點變了？是的。我們要把它帶回左邊嗎？絕對地。

And we will move next to Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

我們將搬到德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg 旁邊。

Shane, congrats on getting the ROIC, I guess, congrats to you and the whole team of getting your return on invested capital trailing 12 months on better than your cost. You're one of the few out there who can actually have achieved that objective. You did highlight the return of share repurchase program. Again, this is to offset just the dilution. And then the amping up the part of the deliveries of some MAXs. Where is your thinking on bringing back the dividend? Is that something that we see in 2023? Is that later this year? Is that a next year phenomenon?

Shane，祝賀你獲得 ROIC，我想，祝賀你和整個團隊在 12 個月後獲得比你的成本更好的投資回報。你是為數不多的能夠真正實現這一目標的人之一。您確實強調了股票回購計劃的回報。同樣，這只是為了抵消稀釋。然後增加一些 MAX 的交付量。您對恢復紅利有何想法？那是我們在 2023 年看到的東西嗎？是今年晚些時候嗎？這是明年的現象嗎？

Mike, thanks for picking up the ROIC comment in the script. That's nice that you did. We are -- that question on dividend is the 2023 conversation item with the Board. We decided last year to prioritize offsetting dilution first. As you know, I mean, I think a dividend is something that you do and you have a lot of confidence in the outlook for a multi-year period. We're really optimistic, but we want to see how this year shapes up, especially with the economic backdrop.

邁克，感謝您選擇腳本中的 ROIC 評論。你做的真好我們是——關於股息的問題是 2023 年與董事會的對話項目。我們去年決定首先優先考慮抵消稀釋。如你所知，我的意思是，我認為股息是你所做的事情，你對多年期的前景充滿信心。我們真的很樂觀，但我們想看看今年的情況如何，尤其是在經濟背景下。

So we're actively discussing it with the Board, still in our long-term sort of thought process in terms of capital allocation and shareholder returns, but nothing to say right now on it.

因此，我們正在與董事會積極討論，在資本分配和股東回報方面仍處於我們的長期思考過程中，但現在沒有什麼可說的。

Okay. Great. Fair enough. And then just second, my question on loyalty to Andrew. To see the $1.5 billion of remuneration. And I think just a few years back, it was $1 billion, $1.1 billion. I think you had mentioned something like 39% going back to 2019. And maybe we're looking at a 10% or 12% type CAGR here. Is that the right rate going forward? I mean -- or do we see -- maybe you talked about a step-up in fee, but do we see a step up in maybe rate? Are there any sort of milestones that we hit over the next year or 2 where that $1.5 billion could say, jump to $2 billion? How should we think about the growth of that program?

好的。偉大的。很公平。其次，我的問題是對安德魯的忠誠度。看看15億美元的報酬。我想就在幾年前，它是 10 億美元，11 億美元。我想你已經提到了 39% 回到 2019 年。也許我們在這裡看到的是 10% 或 12% 的複合年增長率。這是正確的利率嗎？我的意思是——或者我們是否看到——也許你談到了費用的增加，但我們是否看到了費用的增加？是否有我們在明年或兩年內達到的任何里程碑，即 15 億美元可以說躍升至 20 億美元？我們應該如何考慮該項目的發展？

Yes, I think -- well, a couple of things. And again, you've seen a significant step change from the new contract. And that as you heard this morning, there will be more goodness there. And there is also changes over time. But I think what we're really excited about now is we've got this behind us is, growing the program, growing the portfolio, growing the spend top of wallet, and that's what my team is squarely focused on now. And so I do personally see continued momentum, and it's going to be a very big focus for us as we continue to move forward.

是的，我認為 - 好吧，有幾件事。再一次，你看到了新合同的重大變化。正如你今天早上聽到的那樣，那裡會有更多的美好。而且隨著時間的推移也會發生變化。但我認為我們現在真正感到興奮的是，我們已經完成了這個項目，增加了投資組合，增加了錢包的支出，這就是我的團隊現在正專注於的事情。因此，我個人確實看到了持續的勢頭，隨著我們繼續前進，這將成為我們非常關注的焦點。

Thanks, Mike. I did want to mention as well. That was a great answer, Andrew, because it is Andrew's birthday today, which I forgot to mention at the start. And I just want to ask the analysts not to be too hard on Andrew during the -- I'm kidding. You can be as hard on the him as you like. Happy Birthday Andrew.

謝謝，邁克。我也想提一下。這是一個很好的答案，安德魯，因為今天是安德魯的生日，我在開始時忘了提到這一點。我只是想請分析師們不要對安德魯太苛刻——我在開玩笑。你可以隨心所欲地對他嚴厲。安德魯生日快樂。

Thank you, Ben.

謝謝你，本。

And our next question today will come from Savi Syth with Raymond James Financial.

我們今天的下一個問題將來自 Savi Syth 和 Raymond James Financial。

And I guess as a follow-up on Andrew Didora' question and it's probably a question to Andrew, so I apologize if this is mean. But I was kind of curious if you could give a little bit more color on the kind of the business recovery in terms of -- you mentioned may be getting -- eventually kind of getting back to 2019 levels, but because you have some of these other initiatives that should help you get there. Do you get there this year? And particularly, I guess what I'm focused on is you have a lot of headlines about kind of job cuts and kind of the West Coast based tech companies and -- is that having any incremental impact on the tech business demand? Or is that -- is it just more -- you're not seeing the recovery yet?

我想作為對 Andrew Didora 問題的跟進，這可能是向 Andrew 提出的問題，所以如果這是刻薄的，我深表歉意。但我很好奇你是否可以就業務復甦的類型給出更多的顏色 - 你提到可能會 - 最終有點回到 2019 年的水平，但因為你有一些這些其他可以幫助您實現目標的舉措。你今年到了嗎？特別是，我想我關注的是你有很多關於裁員和西海岸科技公司的頭條新聞——這對科技業務需求有任何增量影響嗎？或者是——只是更多——你還沒有看到復蘇？

Yes. Savi, thanks for that. And I think it's a great question because the first thing I will say is that even though the headlines are recent on these job cuts, we've been experiencing especially some really large tech companies, their corporate travel has already been severely depressed for some time now. So the corporate numbers that you see from us already include a lot of high-tech companies with that already, in some cases, nearly turned off their travel, but have severely depressed.

是的。薩維，謝謝你。我認為這是一個很好的問題，因為我要說的第一件事是，儘管這些裁員是最近的頭條新聞，但我們一直在經歷，尤其是一些真正的大型科技公司，他們的商務旅行已經嚴重低迷了一段時間現在。因此，您從我們這裡看到的企業數據已經包括許多高科技公司，在某些情況下，它們幾乎已經停止了旅行，但已經嚴重低迷。

So as we move forward, I don't think these cuts personally impact the technology side because I think we've already seen them. And the question is, will they come back? I'm more bullish and confident certainly on the non-tech side of corporate travel and continue to share there. I will say the jury is a little bit out on where tech does go. But I think overall, portfolio-wise, business is somewhat stable that the 85% -- 75%, 85% range. But again, I hope with our share movement and continued strength over time that we do get back there.

因此，隨著我們向前邁進，我認為這些削減不會對技術方面產生個人影響，因為我認為我們已經看到了它們。問題是，他們會回來嗎？我對商務旅行的非技術方面更加樂觀和自信，並繼續在那里分享。我會說陪審團對技術的發展方向有點不以為然。但我認為總體而言，就投資組合而言，業務在 85% - 75%、85% 的範圍內有些穩定。但我再次希望，隨著我們的股票運動和隨著時間的推移持續的實力，我們確實回到了那裡。

And Savi, I might just add, the one thing not to lose sight of is these tech companies while they haven't been traveling for quite a while, these are like the most valuable companies on earth. And at some point, they are going to expand again and they're going to get traveling again. So it's probably future goodness for us. We just don't know when it's going to really come back. It could be a year away or more.

薩維，我想補充一點，不要忽視的一件事是這些科技公司，雖然他們已經有一段時間沒有出差了，但它們就像地球上最有價值的公司一樣。在某個時候，他們將再次擴張，他們將再次旅行。所以這對我們來說可能是未來的美好。我們只是不知道它什麼時候會真正回來。可能需要一年或更長時間。

Makes sense. And I just thought of the -- getting back to the utilization and productivity, trying to understand, again, Ben you talked about the aerospace is what it is, and we're still below and yet you're seeing everybody struggling with and then questioning if we get back to kind of the previous productivity, what's kind of controllable on Alaska side and the timing around that versus what's kind of out of your control?

說得通。我只是想到 - 回到利用率和生產力，再次嘗試理解，本，你談到航空航天就是這樣，我們仍然低於這個水平，但你看到每個人都在努力，然後質疑我們是否恢復到以前的生產力，阿拉斯加方面的可控程度以及時間安排與您無法控制的情況相比？

No, Savi. Just let me start with a couple of things. I think for us, well, coming back from a pandemic and getting the inertia up for the operation, I think that's where not just Alaska, but the entire industry struggled getting back up to a certain level of capacity. So there was some -- there was a lot of issues there. Like as I look forward now into 2023, when I look at the benefits of single fleet and having the majority of your fleet Boeing and the majority of your fleet Embraer 175, that just drives massive efficiency in terms of crews, in terms of swapping airplanes and getting reserve crews. So just there alone for us is a major improvement.

不，薩維。讓我從幾件事開始。我認為對我們來說，好吧，從大流行病中恢復過來並為行動增加慣性，我認為這不僅是阿拉斯加，而且整個行業都在努力恢復到一定水平的產能。所以有一些 - 那裡有很多問題。就像我現在展望 2023 年一樣，當我看到單一機隊的好處以及擁有大部分機隊波音和大部分機隊巴西航空工業公司 175 時，這只會在交換飛機方面提高機組人員的巨大效率並獲得後備船員。因此，僅對我們來說就是一項重大改進。

Secondly, again, getting through a little bit of the volatility with staffing and training, that goes away. So that volatility goes out. So our folks is purely in every part of the operation where we see volatility in staffing, where we see volatility in performance is to go and [zero] in on those issues and snuff them out. And I mean that's what good airlines do and operational reliability is just critical in doing that. Right now there will be things that will never go back to the way they were in 2019, but I think a lot of this is in our control. And we just don't give up on those type of things. It's savings that you can go after, and we're going to go after them.

其次，再一次，通過人員配備和培訓來克服一點波動，這就消失了。這樣波動就消失了。因此，我們的員工純粹是在我們看到人員配置波動的運營的每個部分，我們看到性能波動的地方是去 [零] 解決這些問題並將其消除。我的意思是，這就是優秀的航空公司所做的，而運營可靠性對於做到這一點至關重要。現在有些事情永遠不會回到 2019 年的樣子，但我認為其中很多都在我們的控制之中。我們只是不放棄那些類型的事情。這是您可以追求的儲蓄，我們將追求它們。

Just to clarify, but just on the staffing side, staffing and training. The training is related to the fleet transition, right? Are you fairly caught up in just being able to source the pilots for the capacity.

只是為了澄清，但只是在人員配置方面，人員配置和培訓。訓練是跟艦隊過渡有關的吧？您是否完全專注於能夠為該容量尋找飛行員？

Right. Yes. We're going through a lot of the A320 Airbus pilot transition right now. So we'll be through it by the end of the first quarter And so that's going through all our house right now. Same thing with the Q400s and the Embraer 175. So we'll be largely done that big by wave.

正確的。是的。我們現在正在經歷大量 A320 空中客車飛行員的過渡。所以我們將在第一季度末完成它所以現在我們所有的房子都在經歷它。 Q400s 和 Embraer 175 也是如此。所以我們將在很大程度上通過波浪完成那麼大。

And we'll go next to Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們將與 Wolfe Research 一起去 Scott Group。

I just want to go back to the revenue guide. So it looks like RASM decelerating from -- when I look versus '19, decelerating from fourth quarter to first quarter and then reaccelerating the rest of the year. Just help us understand that. Is that a market view? Is that something specific to you guys? Just any color there.

我只想回到收入指南。所以看起來 RASM 正在減速——當我看 19 年時，從第四季度減速到第一季度，然後在今年剩餘時間重新加速。只是幫助我們理解這一點。這是市場觀點嗎？那是你們特有的東西嗎？那裡有任何顏色。

Yes, Scott. So a couple of things, and we've talked about this before, obviously, but our first quarter is always the weakest. And a little bit business travels certainly in January has been highly choppy and did not return as much as we had hoped. But I think if you take a step back and look at our revenue in general, and you even go back to 2019, our unit revenue guide for the first quarter are right in line with the industry's unit guides. And they also have very big international travel coming back, which I think will be a big tailwind for them. And again, for the year, we're about right where our industry is. But again, for us, we've got work to do again on January and February on the network side. We do need to make sure that we construct our network to handle these lulls in our demand. But again, March and forward is very solid.

是的，斯科特。所以有幾件事，我們之前已經談過這個，很明顯，但我們的第一季度總是最弱的。 1 月份的一些商務旅行肯定非常不穩定，並沒有像我們希望的那樣返回。但我認為，如果你退一步看看我們的總體收入，甚至回到 2019 年，我們第一季度的單位收入指南與行業的單位指南是一致的。他們也有大量的國際旅行回來，我認為這對他們來說將是一個巨大的推動力。再一次，今年，我們的行業就在正確的位置。但同樣，對於我們來說，我們在 1 月和 2 月在網絡方面還有工作要做。我們確實需要確保我們構建的網絡能夠應對需求中的這些停滯。但同樣，三月和前進非常紮實。

Okay. And then, Shane, I think you said that there's a fuel hedging loss embedded in the guide for this year. Just -- how much is that -- maybe just bigger picture, like the issue has been crack spreads not so much crude. Like any thoughts on revisiting how you guys hedge? I know it's more complicated, but it seems like it would be a much more effective way to hedge if you want to hedge it all.

好的。然後，Shane，我想你說過今年的指南中包含燃料對沖損失。只是 - 那是多少 - 也許只是更大的圖景，就像問題一直是裂解價差而不是原油。喜歡重新審視你們如何對沖的任何想法嗎？我知道它更複雜，但如果你想對沖這一切，這似乎是一種更有效的對沖方法。

Scott, it's Nat Pieper. Thanks for the question on fuel. I think first on just our hedging program. We started this 20% out of the money calls, very straightforward, formulaic back in 2015, broke even basically 2015 to 2021. And then as you cited, and as we said in the script, 2022 it turned out to be a profitable thing. But as you know, we're not hedging to make money. We're hedging just to eliminate volatility. We think it's a good way to use our strong balance sheet and it just gives us some better insights in our planning as we move forward. We have spent a considerable amount of time with investment banking friends back on the East Coast about ways to potentially to hedge the crack spread, you're right, and that that's been the main source of frustration, volatility, et cetera. And something we're looking at. But I'd underscore, we're only going to do it if -- again, it's consistent with our core values as a company, use our strong financial foundation and just keep it on autopilot.

斯科特，我是納特·皮珀。感謝您提出關於燃料的問題。我首先想到的是我們的對沖計劃。我們在 2015 年開始了這 20% 的資金電話，非常簡單，公式化，基本上在 2015 年到 2021 年收支平衡。然後正如你引用的那樣，正如我們在腳本中所說的那樣，2022 年它變成了有利可圖的事情。但如您所知，我們不是為了賺錢而進行套期保值。我們進行對沖只是為了消除波動性。我們認為這是使用我們強大的資產負債表的好方法，它只會讓我們在前進的過程中更好地了解我們的計劃。我們花了相當多的時間與東海岸的投資銀行朋友討論對沖裂解價差的方法，你是對的，這是挫敗感、波動性等的主要根源。我們正在看的東西。但我要強調的是，我們只會這樣做——同樣，它符合我們作為一家公司的核心價值觀，利用我們強大的財務基礎並保持自動駕駛。

And what is the hedge loss, though you've got factored in?

什麼是對沖損失，儘管你已經考慮在內了？

We're looking at about $10 million in the first quarter. And then as you can imagine, it snaps to something different every day, the forward curve moves.

我們預計第一季度的收入約為 1000 萬美元。然後你可以想像，它每天都會捕捉到不同的東西，前向曲線移動。

And our next question will come from Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

The question is the state of California was pretty slow to come out of the pandemic, and I guess my question is, what percent of the revenue growth this year is just simply getting markets back to 2019 levels of revenue? And then related to this, what percent of Alaska's revenue touches the state of California?

問題是加利福尼亞州擺脫大流行的速度相當緩慢，我想我的問題是，今年收入增長的百分比只是讓市場回到 2019 年的收入水平？然後與此相關的是，阿拉斯加的收入中有多少百分比涉及加利福尼亞州？

Yes. So just on the big picture, Dan, our growth, 2/3 of it is going to be Pacific Northwest and 1/3 of it is going to be California. Just as it relates to recovery, if you look at our growth in 2023, the Pacific Northwest is now in the double-digit territory higher than 2019. But California was still down 23% last year, and it will be close -- it will be 10 points better than that. So our California network will still be down about 10 to 12 points this year versus '19, but recovering. And I would say, again, very high level, 1/3 of our revenues is somewhat tied to California.

是的。因此，從大局來看，丹，我們的增長，其中 2/3 將在太平洋西北地區，而 1/3 將在加利福尼亞。正如與復蘇有關，如果你看看我們 2023 年的增長，太平洋西北地區現在處於比 2019 年高的兩位數區域。但加州去年仍下降了 23%，而且很接近——它將比那好10分。因此，與 19 年相比，我們的加州網絡今年仍將下降 10 到 12 點，但正在恢復。我會再次說，非常高的水平，我們 1/3 的收入在某種程度上與加利福尼亞有關。

Wow, that's big. On the prior comment that Alaska has more upside on corporate revenue versus peers. So I guess on Premium revenue, I believe the stat was to have 62% more Premium seats this year versus 2019. And I guess I'm wondering if that stat is still correct or if that's right. And I'm not sure if you can share what the mix is today or -- but what it is today versus where you might expect to exit the year, but if you can, that's helpful.

哇，好大根據之前的評論，阿拉斯加在企業收入方面比同行有更大的優勢。所以我猜想在 Premium 收入方面，我認為今年的 Premium 席位比 2019 年增加了 62%。我想我想知道這個統計數據是否仍然正確或者是否正確。而且我不確定你是否可以分享今天的組合，或者 - 但今天是什麼與你可能期望退出今年的地方，但如果可以的話，那是有幫助的。

And then related to this, just the corporate travel budgets, are they coming in a little higher than last year, a lot higher or lower just given the tech exposure.

然後與此相關的是，僅企業差旅預算，它們是否比去年高一點，考慮到技術風險，高或低很多。

Yes. So I think a couple of things. And you maybe saw in my prepared remarks that we were able to increase our Premium revenues by nearly $0.5 billion. And as Shane has shared, we're sort of trading out 12 first-class seat -- 320s for 16 first-class seat MAXs. So there's real upside there. I think -- overall, I think first class revenues were up about 21%. So there is a significant opportunity there.

是的。所以我想了幾件事。你可能在我準備好的發言中看到，我們能夠將保費收入增加近 5 億美元。正如 Shane 所分享的那樣，我們正在用 12 個頭等艙座位換取 320 個頭等艙座位 MAX。所以那裡有真正的好處。我認為 - 總體而言，我認為頭等艙收入增長了約 21%。所以那裡有一個重要的機會。

The other opportunity we're working on then is our regional fleet, and we -- actually we're all 175 now, which have First and Premium, and we're really happy with the progress we've made on filling those seats at good fares, and we continue to work that. And then on the last question you had was on corporate. Could you repeat that one again, sorry?

我們正在努力的另一個機會是我們的區域機隊，我們 - 實際上我們現在都是 175，其中有 First 和 Premium，我們對我們在填補這些席位方面取得的進展感到非常高興票價不錯，我們繼續努力。然後你的最後一個問題是關於公司的。對不起，你能再重複一遍嗎？

Yes, the corporate budget is a little higher, a little lower or given the tech exposure.

是的，公司預算高一點，低一點或考慮到技術風險。

Yes. I think some of the budgets when I last spoke to my team was still being finalized for this year. I think -- budgets or no budgets, I think what we're really seeing a little bit here, Dan, in some cases, is the on-off switch. You've got to go to your Vice President to ask for travel, and so people are not going.

是的。我認為我上次與我的團隊交談時的一些預算今年仍在敲定中。我認為 - 預算或沒有預算，我認為我們在這裡真正看到的是丹，在某些情況下，是開關。你必須去找你的副總統要求出差，所以人們不會去。

So we either see very deep cuts in travel or more to the average mean. So I think the real question is, will high-tech start to give permission for their people to start traveling again. And as you know, it's not just -- it's hotels, it's cars, it's air fares. So anyway, that's where we're at.

因此，我們要么看到旅行大幅減少，要么比平均水平更多。所以我認為真正的問題是，高科技是否會開始允許他們的人再次開始旅行。正如你所知，這不僅僅是 - 它是酒店，它是汽車，它是機票。所以無論如何，這就是我們所處的位置。

Our next question will come from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just on the capacity outlook, this would be an easy one. Just can you provide some context on what's new versus core utilization stage gauge. It just feels like a lot of the growth is going to be utilization gauge base this year within your core markets, but if you could just clarify that, that would be great.

就容量前景而言，這將是一件容易的事。您能否提供一些關於新功能與核心利用率階段指標的背景信息。感覺很多增長將是今年核心市場的利用率指標基礎，但如果你能澄清這一點，那就太好了。

Yes, I mean, you're exactly right. At the end of the day, very, very few new cities. This is essentially all core restoration and 85% of all of our growth is stage engaged. So it's a very efficient growth.

是的，我的意思是，你完全正確。歸根結底，新城市非常非常少。這基本上是所有核心恢復，我們所有增長的 85% 都是舞台參與的。所以這是一個非常有效的增長。

Is that mostly on the Pacific Northwest in California? I mean, I feel like you mentioned that in the prior...

那主要是在加利福尼亞的太平洋西北部嗎？我的意思是，我覺得你之前提到過...

Yes. Yes, that's correct.

是的。對，那是正確的。

All right. And then I hate to ask a cost question because I know you got a bunch, but it seems like there's some confusion. Just prior to the 1Q CASMex guide, I would have thought first half versus second half would just look a lot different than it kind of seems like it's shaping up to be.

好的。然後我不想問成本問題，因為我知道你有很多，但似乎有些混亂。就在第一季度 CASMex 指南發布之前，我本以為上半年和下半年看起來會與看起來的情況有很大不同。

And when I think about high level, second half benefiting from just easier comps, fleet transition, improved productivity, all that stuff, maybe the offset is more on like profit share accruals and then another increase in pilot. I'm just struggling with the idea, like are you being ultraconservative? Or is it just -- there's just a lot of uncertainty right now on the second half cost side?

當我想到高水平時，下半年受益於更簡單的補償、機隊過渡、提高生產力等所有這些東西，也許抵消更多的是像應計利潤，然後是飛行員的另一次增加。我只是在為這個想法苦苦掙扎，比如你是不是極端保守？或者只是 - 現在下半年成本方面存在很多不確定性？

Thanks, Conor. I think if you're implying that you might have thought it would be down more in the second half. I'm not sure if that's what your sort of question was but...

謝謝，康納。我想如果你是在暗示你可能認為下半場會下降更多。我不確定那是否是您的問題，但是...

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

There is not -- Okay. Got you. Yes. There's not a lot of noise, as I think Catie had asked earlier, sequentially throughout the quarter. I will say like with respect to our profit-sharing accruals, we had a very significant results in Q4 2022 because of our First-place performance on the margin side. And while we are still anticipating to lead the industry next year, I think you'll see those accruals come in differently this year. And it's significant enough to create a little bit of noise. But no, I think, look, we need to get through the first quarter, all the transition training, make sure the planes come and we've got to make some decisions about the A321. And I think what we've shared is something we're highly confident we can get to. We tend to target internally to do a little bit better, and that's what we're going to drive towards.

沒有——好的。明白了是的。沒有太多的噪音，正如我認為 Catie 早些時候在整個季度連續問過的那樣。我要說的是，就我們的應計利潤分享而言，由於我們在利潤率方面的第一名表現，我們在 2022 年第四季度取得了非常顯著的成果。雖然我們仍然期待明年引領行業，但我認為今年你會看到這些應計收入有所不同。而且它的重要性足以產生一點噪音。但不，我認為，看，我們需要完成第一季度，所有過渡訓練，確保飛機來，我們必須對 A321 做出一些決定。我認為我們所分享的是我們非常有信心能夠做到的事情。我們傾向於將內部目標定為做得更好一點，這就是我們要努力實現的目標。

But there's a lot of year ahead of us, a lot of execution to do. And I think the last couple of years, we've been ambitious in our plans and had a lot of setbacks. We don't anticipate those this year, but I think some of that's informing some conservatism in our capacity and other guides.

但是我們還有很長的路要走，需要執行很多工作。我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們的計劃雄心勃勃，但遇到了很多挫折。我們預計今年不會出現這些情況，但我認為其中一些正在以我們的身份和其他指南告知一些保守主義。

Sorry, just 1 clarification. I mean you did have like the lease return expense in the first quarter of last year, is maybe that. I'm sorry, I'll take it offline. I'll ask...

對不起，只有 1 個澄清。我的意思是你確實喜歡去年第一季度的租賃返還費用，也許就是這樣。對不起，我先下線了。我會問的...

Yes, yes, we're happy to -- I mean we're not going to obviously get into like a lot of the specific details, but we're happy to give you more color for sure, on the progression.

是的，是的，我們很高興——我的意思是我們顯然不會涉及很多具體細節，但我們很樂意為您提供更多關於進展的顏色。

And our next question will come from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So another follow-up on corporate, I'm afraid, I think you said that you were -- the tech customers of yours are giant corporations and they're eventually going to come back, which I guess it's true, but then we can't be 100% sure of that kind of given the way to do business. So are you happy to wait for them to kind of come back on the corporate side? Or are you looking to maybe expand your corporate customer footprint? Maybe chase some more SMB customers? And is there anything you need to do from either a marketing or a network standpoint differently if your corporate customer base is likely to change going forward?

所以關於公司的另一個後續行動，恐怕，我想你說過你是 - 你的技術客戶是大公司，他們最終會回來，我想這是真的，但我們可以100% 確定那種給定的做生意的方式。那麼，您是否樂意等待他們回到企業方面？或者您是否希望擴大您的企業客戶足跡？也許追逐更多的 SMB 客戶？如果您的公司客戶群未來可能發生變化，您是否需要從營銷或網絡的角度採取不同的措施？

Andrew can speak quickly to the sort of composition. I just -- Ravi, one thing I'd say, tech tends to have some of the best discounts. It's sort of lower-yielding business traffic. And I think the point we were trying to make is they haven't been traveling much all of last year. So there's not even though you have these headlines of layoffs, it doesn't really mean that there's like another downward step in terms of their travel. And I do think that at historically low travel volumes, they may never go back to where they were pre-pandemic. I think they're going to be above where they are today. I'm very confident about that. I just don't know when.

Andrew 能很快地講出那種作文。我只是——拉維，我要說的一件事是，科技往往有一些最好的折扣。這是一種低收益的商業流量。我認為我們試圖表達的意思是他們去年一整年都沒有太多旅行。因此，即使你有這些裁員的頭條新聞，也並不意味著他們的旅行又下降了一步。而且我確實認為，在旅行量處於歷史低位的情況下，他們可能永遠不會回到大流行前的狀態。我認為他們會超過今天的水平。我對此很有信心。我只是不知道什麼時候。

And then maybe Andrew on sort of pursuing SMB and all.

然後也許安德魯在某種程度上追求 SMB 和所有。

Yes. I think we'll obviously adjust. We obviously would love high tech to get back to the where they were. But at the end of the day, this is about using your channels and the timing and when we sell and when we don't sell. And I think there's just a lot of opportunity to relook about who we're selling our seats to and when and where, and we will manage through this.

是的。我認為我們顯然會進行調整。我們顯然希望高科技能回到原來的狀態。但歸根結底，這是關於使用您的渠道和時機以及我們何時銷售和何時不銷售。而且我認為現在有很多機會重新審視我們向誰出售我們的席位以及何時何地，我們將解決這個問題。

Got it. And maybe as a quick follow-up. I mean, obviously, you guys have come a long way kind of in the last couple of years and kind of where your balance sheet is right now and with kind of the biggest boxes checked on the cost side and the fleet transition side and everything else. How are you thinking of the pace of shareholder returns or cash returns through the year maybe as your confidence in your own numbers and the cycle maybe kind of build through the year?

知道了。也許作為快速跟進。我的意思是，很明顯，你們在過去幾年裡取得了長足的進步，你們的資產負債表現在在哪裡，並且在成本方面和機隊過渡方面以及其他所有方面都檢查了最大的方框.您如何看待全年股東回報或現金回報的步伐，也許是因為您對自己的數字和周期可能會在一年中建立起來？

Yes. Ravi, I think -- so we announced the sort of dilution offset program. I think we've ranged it from $75 million to $100 million. We'll put a grid in place assuming the stock sort of price is somewhat consistent throughout the year, it should be ratable throughout the year. But we'll buy more if the stock goes down and obviously a little bit less if the stock goes up. But we'll get through the entire $100 million by the end of the year, my guess is it's fairly ratable across the quarters. And that's sort of our plan at this point.

是的。拉維，我想——所以我們宣布了某種稀釋抵消計劃。我認為我們的預算範圍從 7500 萬美元到 1 億美元不等。假設股票價格全年保持一致，我們將放置一個網格，它應該全年都可以評級。但如果股價下跌，我們會買更多，如果股價上漲，我們顯然會少買一點。但到今年年底我們將用完全部 1 億美元，我猜它在各個季度都相當可觀。這就是我們目前的計劃。

Thanks, everybody. Thank you, Ravi. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our first quarter call. Look forward to following up with anybody out there, and we'll talk to you on the second quarter. Everyone, have a nice day. Thanks.

謝謝大家。謝謝你，拉維。謝謝大家。感謝您加入我們的第一季度電話會議。期待跟進那裡的任何人，我們將在第二季度與您交談。大家，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. Goodbye.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。再見。