阿拉斯加航空 (ALK) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Alaska Air Group 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加阿拉斯加航空集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback at alaskaair.com. After our speakers' remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for analysts.

今天的通話正在錄音中，將來可以在 alaskaair.com 上回放。演講者發言後，我們將為分析師舉行問答環節。

I would now like to turn the call over to Alaska Air Group's Vice President of Finance, Planning and Investor Relations, Ryan St. John.

我現在想將電話轉給阿拉斯加航空集團財務、規劃和投資者關係副總裁瑞安·聖約翰 (Ryan St. John)。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2023 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release along with several accompanying slides detailing our results, which are available at investor.alaskaair.com.

謝謝您，接線員，早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告以及幾張詳細介紹我們業績的隨附幻燈片，這些幻燈片可在 Investor.alaskaair.com 上取得。

On today's call, you'll hear updates from Ben, Andrew and Shane. Several others of our management team are also on the line to answer your questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

在今天的電話會議上，您將聽到本、安德魯和肖恩的最新消息。我們管理團隊的其他幾位成員也在電話問答部分在線回答您的問題。

This morning, Air Group reported third quarter GAAP net income of $139 million. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, Air Group reported adjusted net income of $237 million. As a reminder, our comments today will include forward-looking statements about future performance, which may differ materially from our actual results.

今天上午，Air Group 報告第三季 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.39 億美元。不包括特殊項目和按市值計價的燃油對沖調整，Air Group 公佈的調整後淨利潤為 2.37 億美元。提醒一下，我們今天的評論將包括有關未來業績的前瞻性陳述，這可能與我們的實際結果有重大差異。

Information on risk factors that could affect our business can be found within our SEC filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted earnings and unit costs, excluding fuel. And as usual, we have provided a reconciliation between the most directly comparable GAAP and non-GAAP measures in today's earnings release. Over to you, Ben.

有關可能影響我們業務的風險因素的資訊可以在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。我們也將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標，例如調整後的收益和單位成本（不包括燃料）。像往常一樣，我們在今天的財報中提供了最直接可比較的公認會計原則和非公認會計原則衡量指標之間的調節表。交給你了，本。

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Before getting to our results, I'd like to start by acknowledging the human aspect of the work we do. This past quarter, close to home, we saw wildfires bring devastation to the West Maui community. More recently, we've been horrified by the terrorist attacks in Israel, and we mourn the innocent lives lost. I want to acknowledge that people are hurting and while we share in the privilege of connecting families and communities, we also share in the pain of seeing those around the world suffer.

謝謝瑞安，大家早安。在得出我們的結果之前，我想先承認我們所做工作的人性化方面。上個季度，在我們家附近，我們看到野火給西毛伊島社區帶來了破壞。最近，我們對以色列發生的恐怖攻擊感到震驚，我們對失去的無辜生命表示哀悼。我承認人們正在受到傷害，雖然我們有幸將家庭和社區聯繫起來，但我們也分擔看到世界各地的人們受苦受難的痛苦。

Now turning to our results. Our third quarter performance continues to demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model and our commitment to drive consistent, measured progress against our goals. During the quarter, we ran the best operation in the country, delivering a 99.7% completion rate and on-time rate of over 80%. On September 30th, we retired our last Airbus aircraft from service, marking our official return to single fleet. We drove unit costs down nearly 5% year-over-year, a strong performance that stands alone versus our peers in achieving year-over-year unit cost reductions. And our 11.4% adjusted pretax margin nearly led the industry despite our lower direct exposure to record international demand as well as significant fuel cost headwinds given our geographic exposure to the West Coast.

現在轉向我們的結果。我們第三季的業績繼續證明了我們業務模式的潛在優勢以及我們對推動實現目標的一致、可衡量的進展的承諾。本季，我們的營運情況全國最好，完成率99.7%，準時率超過80%。 9 月 30 日，我們退役了最後一架空中巴士飛機，標誌著我們正式回歸單一機隊。我們的單位成本年減了近 5%，與我們的同業相比，我們在單位成本同比下降方面表現出色。儘管我們對創紀錄的國際需求的直接敞口較低，而且考慮到我們在西海岸的地理位置，因此面臨著巨大的燃料成本阻力，但我們 11.4% 的調整後稅前利潤率幾乎領先於行業。

Now moving to where we are today. Having been in this industry a long time, I know as well as anyone how volatile it can be and we are seeing this now. Crude oil has risen 12% from last quarter, while L.A. refining margins have increased 70% overall and 60% over Gulf Coast levels disproportionately increasing our economic fuel cost compared to peers, given the majority of our purchasing happens on the West Coast.

現在轉向我們今天所處的位置。我在這個行業工作了很長時間，我和任何人一樣知道它的波動性有多大，我們現在也看到了這一點。原油較上季度上漲12%，而洛杉磯煉油利潤總體增長70%，比墨西哥灣沿岸水平增長60%，考慮到我們的大部分採購發生在西海岸，與同行相比，我們的經濟燃料成本不成比例地增加。

While we expect this divergence to be temporary, it is nonetheless a near-term headwind. Absent this $50 million cost in Q3, we would have led the industry in adjusted pretax margin. Demand remains strong in peak periods, but shoulder periods are becoming more susceptible to lower demand without a full return of corporate travel. Despite these near-term headwinds that will likely make the next quarter is more challenging, I continue to believe we have a strong fundamental long-term setup for several reasons. One, our teams continue to deliver reliability.

儘管我們預期這種差異是暫時的，但它仍然是近期的阻力。如果沒有第三季 5000 萬美元的成本，我們的調整後稅前利潤率將領先於該行業。高峰期的需求仍然強勁，但平峰期更容易受到需求下降的影響，而商務旅行尚未完全恢復。儘管這些近期的不利因素可能會使下個季度更具挑戰性，但我仍然相信，出於多種原因，我們擁有強大的基本長期結構。第一，我們的團隊繼續提供可靠性。

We now have 2 solid quarters in a row of industry-leading performance, and I can confidently say we have our operational muscle back. I want to thank all our employees for their hard work and effort. They have done an amazing job prioritizing and delivering a safe and reliable operation for our guests.

現在，我們已經連續兩個季度保持行業領先的業績，我可以自信地說，我們已經恢復了營運能力。我要感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作和努力。他們在優先考慮並為我們的客人提供安全可靠的營運方面做得非常出色。

Our completion rate not only led the industry but set 20-year company records in all 3 months of the quarter during peak summer flying continuing to surpass our planning expectations. Two, our relative cost advantage comes from decades of discipline and became a highlight in the third quarter. With visibility to another quarter of unit cost improvement year-over-year, we expect full year CASMex to be down 1% to 2% and likely the only carrier to achieve unit cost reductions for the year. Having retired our last Airbus aircraft in September, we brought our dual fleet chapter to a close and are poised to fully recognize the power of single fleet efficiencies as we move into 2024.

我們的完成率不僅領先行業，而且在夏季飛行高峰期間的本季度所有 3 個月內均創下了 20 年來的公司記錄，繼續超出我們的計劃預期。第二，我們的相對成本優勢來自數十年的紀律，並成為第三季的亮點。鑑於單位成本年又下降了一個季度，我們預計 CASMex 全年成本將下降 1% 至 2%，並且可能是今年唯一實現單位成本降低的承運商。 9 月最後一架空中巴士飛機退役後，我們的雙機隊篇章就此結束，並準備在進入 2024 年時充分認識到單一機隊效率的力量。

Three, we have the most diversified revenue of domestic-focused airlines, generating 45% of our revenue outside the main cabin. Our investments in fleet and premium seating have given us a domestic product that rivals any in the industry, including first in premium class lounges and global partnerships that will continue to serve us well going forward.

第三，我們擁有國內航線中收入最多元化的航空公司，45%的收入來自主艙之外。我們對機隊和高級座椅的投資為我們提供了可與業內任何產品相媲美的國內產品，包括首個高級艙休息室和全球合作夥伴關係，這些將繼續為我們的未來提供良好服務。

And four, our growth is rational and disciplined. Having closed out a strong summer operation, our teams are turning their focus to winter preparedness and continuing to deliver strong operational performance for our guests throughout the holidays. Capacity discipline is the most relevant lever our industry has and will be necessary to support off-peak periods going forward. We are focused on optimizing our flying and moderating growth as a prudent measure to deliver results. For 2024, we are actively discussing where within our long-term 4% to 8% target growth range as most optimal given the higher fuel environment. To close, we produced solid third quarter results. Without our refining margin headwind, we would have had the best results in the industry. Our product set competes with the best and as the international versus domestic demand mix and business travel, ultimately normalize over time, we have the right business model to deliver strong results and outperform well into the future.

第四，我們的成長是理性的、有紀律的。在結束了強勁的夏季營運後，我們的團隊正在將重點轉向冬季準備，並在整個假期繼續為我們的客人提供強勁的營運績效。容量紀律是我們行業擁有的最相關的槓桿，也是支持未來非高峰期所必需的。我們專注於優化飛行和放緩成長，作為實現成果的審慎措施。對於 2024 年，我們正在積極討論考慮到更高的燃料環境，在 4% 至 8% 的長期目標增長範圍內的最佳增長範圍。最後，我們取得了穩健的第三季業績。如果沒有煉油利潤率的逆風，我們本來可以取得業界最好的表現。我們的產品系列與最好的產品競爭，隨著國際與國內需求組合和商務旅行最終隨著時間的推移而正常化，我們擁有正確的商業模式來提供強勁的業績並在未來表現出色。

Now more than ever, we are focused on extracting efficiencies from both sides of the profitability equation with all the elements in place to drive strong relative results within our evolving industry.

現在，我們比以往任何時候都更專注於從獲利等式的兩側提取效率，並利用所有要素在不斷發展的行業中推動強勁的相對成果。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯。

Thanks, Ben, and good morning, everyone. Today, my comments will focus on third quarter results, recent trends and our outlook for the rest of the year. Third quarter revenues reached $2.8 billion, up 0.4% year-over-year on 13.7% more capacity, which was approximately 1 point below our revenue guidance midpoint. Unit revenues were down 11.7% versus 2022 and up 12.2% versus 2019. We had 3 sources of headwinds impacting third quarter revenue performance. First, the strong close-in revenue performance we saw from April through most of August moderated as we moved into September.

謝謝，本，大家早安。今天，我的評論將重點放在第三季業績、近期趨勢以及我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。第三季營收達到 28 億美元，年增 0.4%，產能增加 13.7%，比我們的營收指導中位數低約 1 個百分點。單位營收較 2022 年下降 11.7%，較 2019 年成長 12.2%。影響第三季營收表現的不利因素有 3 個。首先，我們從 4 月到 8 月大部分時間看到的強勁的近期收入表現在進入 9 月後有所放緩。

Close-in demand for leisure looks to have normalized and without further return of business demand, shoulder periods are more challenged than they have been in the past couple of years. Second, we planned our network for relatively strong demand from summer into September as we experienced last year. However, that did not fully materialize.

對休閒的近距離需求似乎已經正常化，如果商業需求沒有進一步恢復，肩部時期比過去幾年面臨的挑戰更大。其次，正如我們去年所經歷的那樣，我們針對從夏季到九月相對強勁的需求來規劃我們的網路。然而，這並沒有完全實現。

This led to modest load factor weaknesses in areas of our network where we deployed more capacity than we normally would during the shoulder. Third, the devastating Maui wildfires impacted third quarter revenue and therefore, profit by approximately $20 million. For reference, Hawaii represents nearly 12% of our capacity, with 1/3 of that deployed to Maui. Following the wildfires in early August, bookings turned negative with high rates of cancellation. This reversed at the end of August as bookings to Maui began recovering. However, September bookings were still down 45% versus last year. As we move into the fourth quarter, we are seeing continuing recovery in Maui.

這導致我們的網路區域出現了適度的負載係數弱點，在這些區域中，我們部署的容量比平常在路肩期間部署的容量要多。第三，毀滅性的毛伊島野火影響了第三季的收入，因此利潤減少了約 2,000 萬美元。作為參考，夏威夷占我們運力的近 12%，其中 1/3 部署在毛伊島。八月初的山火之後，預訂量出現負數，取消率很高。隨著飛往毛伊島的預訂開始恢復，這種情況在八月底發生了逆轉。然而，9 月的預訂量仍較去年下降 45%。隨著進入第四季度，我們看到毛伊島持續復甦。

However, we expect revenues to be negatively impacted by approximately $18 million and anticipate it will be several quarters before demand returns to normalized levels. Having cut a full frequency from Seattle and trimmed capacity from other hubs, we will continue capacity adjustments to match supply with demand while serving the people of Maui during the recovery process.

然而，我們預計收入將受到約 1800 萬美元的負面影響，並預計需求需要幾個季度才能恢復到正常水平。在削減了從西雅圖出發的全班次並削減了其他樞紐的運力後，我們將繼續進行運力調整，以使供應與需求相匹配，同時在恢復過程中為毛伊島人民提供服務。

Lastly, although not a part of our baseline, we saw no upside benefit from corporate travel as revenue continues to hold at about 85% of 2019 levels. Having covered our headwinds, though, there were several positive results in the quarter as well. With respect to product, our premium cabins continue to materially outperform the main cabin with first and premium class revenues up 10% and 6% year-over-year, respectively.

最後，雖然不是我們基準的一部分，但我們認為商務旅行沒有帶來任何好處，因為收入繼續保持在 2019 年水準的 85% 左右。不過，在克服了不利因素之後，本季也取得了一些正面的成果。在產品方面，我們的豪華客艙持續大幅優於主艙，頭等艙和豪華客艙收入較去年同期分別成長 10% 和 6%。

Alaska is the only primarily domestic carrier to have both first class and premium economy across 100% of our mainline and regional fleets. These premium seats represent 25% of our total seats and continue to be an area of opportunity for us in sustaining higher yields and other domestic focus competitors, especially as travel preferences continue to move in a more premium direction.

阿拉斯加是唯一一家在 100% 的干線和支線機隊中同時擁有頭等艙和豪華經濟艙的主要國內航空公司。這些優質座位占我們總座位數的 25%，並且仍然是我們維持較高收益率和其他國內重點競爭對手的機會領域，特別是在旅行偏好繼續朝著更優質的方向發展的情況下。

Total premium paid load factor was up 3 points year-over-year, but has increased over 10 points on 12% more seats versus 2019. Today, premium revenue represents 31% of our total revenue, contributing to the 45% of total revenue we generate outside the main cabin.

保費付費客座率總額較去年同期上升3 個百分點，但與2019 年相比，增加了10 個百分點以上，座位數增加了12%。如今，保費收入占我們總收入的31%，占我們總收入的45 %。產生於主艙外。

Putting aside premium for a moment, we have also seen success with more guests buying out from SABA into our main cabin product. This buy up has occurred at 22% higher fares versus last year. Loyalty remains a strong driver of revenue performance as well. Bank cash remuneration was up 11% versus the third quarter of 2022, outpacing system revenue that was only up 0.4 point.

暫時把溢價放在一邊，我們也看到越來越多的客人從 SABA 購買我們的主艙產品，並且取得了成功。此次收購的票價比去年高出 22%。忠誠度仍然是收入表現的強大驅動力。與 2022 年第三季相比，銀行現金薪酬成長了 11%，超過了僅成長 0.4 個百分點的系統收入。

We continue to make solid progress on our strategy of being able to directly sell our oneworld and other partners on alaskaair.com. We launched 13 partners this year, bringing our total to 18 partners with over 500 destinations worldwide now being sold direct on our website. These efforts will continue as we enable selling all cabins on our partners and continue to upgrade the digital guest experience on our website and within our native app.

我們繼續在能夠在 alaskaair.com 上直接銷售 oneworld 和其他合作夥伴的策略方面取得紮實進展。今年我們推出了 13 個合作夥伴，使合作夥伴總數達到 18 個，目前在我們的網站上直接銷售全球 500 多個目的地。隨著我們在合作夥伴上銷售所有小屋，並繼續升級我們網站和本機應用程式內的數位賓客體驗，這些努力將繼續下去。

This is another area where we are clearly differentiated from other domestic focused carriers. We are the only primarily domestic carrier that offers access to a portfolio of global partners where we offer elite status recognition, accrual and redemption and airport lounge access.

這是我們與其他專注於國內的業者明顯不同的另一個領域。我們是唯一一家主要提供國內服務的航空公司，可與全球合作夥伴合作，提供精英身份認可、累積和兌換以及機場休息室使用權。

This capability along with our premium cabin offerings, gives me confidence that we will have built the right commercial offerings to meet our guests' preferences and drive long-term value to Air Group. As we shared on our last call, we have continued to see our guests take advantage of our global partner network with total accrual and redemptions on our long-haul partners, up 26% for the third quarter versus last year.

這種能力以及我們的高級客艙產品讓我相信我們將打造合適的商業產品來滿足乘客的喜好並為航空集團帶來長期價值。正如我們在上次電話會議中分享的那樣，我們繼續看到我們的客人利用我們的全球合作夥伴網絡，在我們的長途合作夥伴上獲得總累積和兌換，第三季度比去年增長了 26%。

Taking a step back, as illustrated in the supporting slides we published today, when comparing our unit revenue performance versus a 2019 baseline, it's clear that the differentiation of our products including our premium offering and international connectivity is a very positive story, which has resulted in unit revenues up 12% on capacity growth of 6%. This is a testament to the soundness of our business model and the success of changes we've made since 2019.

退後一步，正如我們今天發布的支援幻燈片所示，在將我們的單位收入表現與2019 年基線進行比較時，很明顯，我們產品的差異化（包括我們的優質產品和國際連接）是一個非常積極的故事，這導致了產能成長 6%，單位收入成長 12%。這證明了我們業務模式的健全性以及我們自 2019 年以來所做的變革的成功。

Now turning to fourth quarter guidance. We expect revenue to be up 1% to 4% on capacity that is up 11% to 14% year-over-year. In terms of bookings, holidays are in line with our expectations with load factors up a couple of points and yield up double digits versus 2019. As I mentioned, nonpeak shoulders are weaker than 2022's historic demand levels, in part driven by a return to more normal seasonality and a continued, but we believe temporary demand shift towards international travel. Today, we have approximately 58% of November and 35% of December revenue booked. Given our fourth quarter outlook and current demand backdrop, we are narrowing our full year revenue guide to up 7% to 8%. Our guide implies that our unit revenue trajectory is improving sequentially in the fourth quarter versus 2022, up 3 points.

現在轉向第四季指引。我們預計營收將成長 1% 至 4%，產能年增 11% 至 14%。就預訂量而言，假期符合我們的預期，與2019 年相比，載客率上升了幾個百分點，收益率上升了兩位數。正如我所提到的，非高峰期需求弱於2022 年的歷史需求水平，部分原因是恢復了更多正常的季節性和持續的，但我們認為暫時的需求轉向國際旅行。今天，我們已預訂了約 11 月收入的 58% 和 12 月收入的 35%。鑑於我們第四季度的前景和當前的需求背景，我們將全年收入預期縮小至 7% 至 8%。我們的指南表明，我們的單位收入軌跡在第四季度比 2022 年連續改善，上升了 3 個百分點。

And we believe the gap to legacy unit revenue performance is also closing sequentially. Our most significant step-up in capacity occurred during the third quarter as we work to restore our pre-pandemic network. However, in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2024 our growth follows more in line with normal seasonal patterns. After growing 6% above 2019 levels in Q3, our growth moderates to less than 3% above 2019 levels from the fourth quarter through February of 2024, which we believe should better support supply and demand dynamics in our market versus the industry.

我們相信，與傳統單位收入表現的差距也逐漸縮小。我們最顯著的產能提升發生在第三季度，當時我們正在努力恢復疫情前的網路。然而，從第四季度到 2024 年第一季度，我們的成長更符合正常的季節性模式。在第三季比2019 年水準成長6% 後，從第四季到2024 年2 月，我們的成長放緩至比2019 年水準成長不到3%，我們認為這應該更好地支持我們市場相對於業界的供需動態。

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our commercial plan and cognizant of our environment. Our team has taken a hard look at our first quarter network amidst high fuel prices as part of our commitment to improving Q1 profitability. We are focused on managing capacity prudently, including capitalizing on leisure destinations, including 15 new routes such as Seattle and Los Angeles to Nassau, which will bring in new revenue while also constraining our total capacity growth to low levels, and reducing business heavy routes and frequencies. For example, we've trimmed our higher-frequency Pacific Northwest and California business seats 22% versus January and February of last year.

展望未來，我們對我們的商業計劃仍然充滿信心，並認識到我們的環境。作為我們提高第一季獲利能力的承諾的一部分，我們的團隊在高油價的情況下認真審視了我們第一季的網路。我們專注於謹慎管理運力，包括利用休閒目的地，包括西雅圖和洛杉磯至拿騷等15條新航線，這將帶來新的收入，同時也將我們的總運力增長限制在較低水平，並減少業務密集的航線和頻率。例如，與去年 1 月和 2 月相比，我們將頻率較高的太平洋西北地區和加州商務艙座位削減了 22%。

To wrap up, we have a solid commercial plan that is producing results. Our combination of premium products, valuable loyalty program and global offerings through our partnerships in oneworld allows us to provide guests with what they want while producing strong financial results, and we're looking forward to building on that moving forward.

總而言之，我們有一個可靠的商業計劃，並且正在產生成果。透過與寰宇一家的合作夥伴關係，我們將優質產品、有價值的忠誠度計劃和全球服務相結合，使我們能夠為客人提供他們想要的東西，同時產生強勁的財務業績，我們期待在此基礎上繼續前進。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Shane.

接下來，我會把它交給謝恩。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. As we discussed on previous calls, for the past year, we have prioritized returning Alaska to operational excellence. This is what our guests deserve, and it allows us to have more predictability across the company, which we can ultimately leverage to improve efficiency and cost performance. It was encouraging to see during the quarter that as we've delivered the industry's most reliable operation, our teams have begun to turn the corner on our cost profile as well. And while we acknowledge a more challenged near-term setup with temporary but elevated West Coast jet fuel refining margin costs and a more typical demand profile in shoulder periods, we remain confident our business has the right configuration to deliver financial performance over the long term.

謝謝安德魯，大家早安。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，在過去的一年裡，我們優先考慮讓阿拉斯加恢復卓越營運。這是我們的客人應得的，它使我們在整個公司內具有更多的可預測性，我們最終可以利用它來提高效率和成本效益。令人鼓舞的是，在本季我們實現了業界最可靠的運營，我們的團隊也開始扭轉我們的成本狀況。儘管我們承認短期內面臨的挑戰更大，西海岸航空燃油精煉利潤成本暫時但較高，而且肩期的需求狀況更為典型，但我們仍然相信我們的業務擁有正確的配置，可以實現長期的財務業績。

For the third quarter, adjusted EPS was $1.83, and we delivered an adjusted pretax margin of 11.4%. Unit costs were down 4.9% and economic fuel cost per gallon was $3.26, which was materially impacted by refining margins on the West Coast that averaged $0.30 higher than the rest of the country, which we believe will prove to be an anomaly, but materially impacted our performance relative to others.

第三季度，調整後每股盈餘為 1.83 美元，調整後稅前利潤率為 11.4%。單位成本下降 4.9%，每加侖經濟燃料成本為 3.26 美元，這受到西海岸煉油利潤的重大影響，該利潤平均比全國其他地區高 0.30 美元，我們認為這將被證明是異常情況，但受到重大影響我們相對於其他人的表現。

Absent this refining margin differential or the $20 million of lost profit due to the tragedy in Maui, Alaska would have led the industry in margin despite not enjoying the current surge in international demand or a further rebound of corporate traffic. Our balance sheet and liquidity, long-time pillars of strength for us through many cycles remain stable and healthy. We generated approximately $270 million in cash flow from operations during the quarter while total liquidity inclusive of on-hand cash and undrawn lines of credit stood at a healthy $3 billion. Debt payments for the quarter were approximately $93 million and are expected to be $45 million in the fourth quarter.

如果沒有這種煉油利潤差或毛伊島悲劇造成的 2000 萬美元利潤損失，阿拉斯加的利潤率將領先於該行業，儘管沒有享受到當前國際需求的激增或企業流量的進一步反彈。我們的資產負債表和流動性是我們在多個週期中的長期支柱力量，保持穩定和健康。本季我們從營運中產生了約 2.7 億美元的現金流，而包括手頭現金和未提取的信貸額度在內的總流動性保持在 30 億美元的健康水平。本季的債務支付約為 9,300 萬美元，預計第四季為 4,500 萬美元。

Our debt to cap remains at 48%, unchanged from last quarter, while net debt to EBITDA finished the quarter at 1.1x, both within our target range. We have also revised our full year CapEx expectation to $1.7 billion for 2023 and fully expect 2024 to be below this amount as we are currently reshaping our near-term delivery stream with Boeing to accommodate a more conservative 2024 capacity plan.

我們的債務上限仍為 48%，與上季持平，而本季末的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍，均在我們的目標範圍內。我們也將2023 年全年資本支出預期修訂為17 億美元，並完全預計2024 年將低於這一數字，因為我們目前正在與波音公司重塑近期交付流，以適應更保守的2024 年產能計劃。

Our share repurchase program has, as intended, offset dilution year-to-date with spend reaching $70 million, while our trailing 12-month return on invested capital ended at 10.7% this quarter.

我們的股票回購計畫按預期抵銷了年初至今的稀釋，支出達到 7,000 萬美元，而本季我們過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率為 10.7%。

Moving to costs. The third quarter marked a turning point for us in terms of our performance. CASMex ended down 4.9% year-over-year, coming in below our guided range of down 1% to 2%. This result includes the impact of a larger than initially anticipated market rate adjustment for our pilots, which added approximately $20 million to the third quarter and will annualize at $90 million.

轉向成本。第三季是我們業績的轉捩點。 CASMex 收盤年減 4.9%，低於我們設定的下跌 1% 至 2% 的指導區間。這一結果包括我們試點項目市場費率調整幅度大於最初預期的影響，第三季增加了約 2,000 萬美元，年化收入將達到 9,000 萬美元。

Speaking of labor deals during the quarter, we also reached a tentative agreement with our aircraft technicians, and we are in the process and looking forward to reaching the deal with our flight attendants. Our unit cost performance was the result of nearly every department of the company coming in on or below their plan, which has been no easy feat to do over the past 3 years as we have re-ramped our operation.

說到本季的勞務協議，我們也與飛機技術人員達成了初步協議，我們正在處理中，並期待與空服員達成協議。我們的單位成本績效是公司幾乎每個部門都達到或低於計劃的結果，在過去的三年裡，隨著我們重新調整運營，這並不是一件容易的事。

We saw productivity improve 2% year-over-year, and we'll continue to work toward returning to 2019 levels. Other areas, we saw good performance relative to our plan included maintenance aircraft ownership and selling expenses. ASMs were slightly ahead of guidance on the continued outperformance in our completion rate, providing a small additional benefit to unit costs.

我們看到生產力年增了 2%，我們將繼續努力恢復到 2019 年的水準。其他領域，我們看到了與我們的計劃相關的良好表現，包括維護飛機所有權和銷售費用。 ASM 的完成率持續優於預期，略微領先於指引，為單位成本帶來了小幅額外收益。

And lastly, we have lowered our anticipated performance-based pay accruals given the tougher setup in Q4, which also benefited CASMex fuel this quarter. However, absent both of these last 2 impacts, unit costs would have still closed below our guide. As Ben mentioned, we crossed a significant milestone to end the third quarter as we retired our last Airbus from service. And in wrapping up our Airbus era, we announced this morning that we reached an agreement to sell the 10 A321 to our partner, American Airlines, and expect deliveries to occur over the next 2 quarters.

最後，鑑於第四季度的情況更加嚴峻，我們降低了預期的基於績效的應計工資，這也有利於本季的 CASMex 燃料。然而，如果沒有這最後兩個影響，單位成本仍將低於我們的指導值。正如本所提到的，我們在第三季結束時跨越了一個重要的里程碑，我們退休了最後一架空中巴士。為了結束我們的空中巴士時代，我們今天早上宣布達成協議，將向我們的合作夥伴美國航空出售 10 架 A321，並預計在未來兩個季度內交付。

Lastly, as I mentioned, fuel became a significant headwind during the third quarter. L.A. refining margins diverged materially from Gulf Coast levels moving from less than $0.08 difference on average for the first half of the year to $0.30 during the third quarter and at times exceeding $0.90. While we have every expectation this divergence is temporary, it has created a material headwind to our near-term profitability.

最後，正如我所提到的，燃料在第三季成為一個重大阻力。洛杉磯煉油利潤率與墨西哥灣沿岸水準有顯著差異，從上半年的平均不到 0.08 美元到第三季的 0.30 美元，有時甚至超過 0.90 美元。儘管我們預期這種差異是暫時的，但它對我們的近期獲利能力造成了重大阻力。

Our economic fuel costs increased from the midpoint of our original guide, adding approximately $110 million of total cost to the quarter with $50 million coming from refining margin disparity or an approximately 2-point margin headwind for the quarter. For the fourth quarter, we expect fuel price per gallon to be between $3.30 and $3.40 per gallon, which is an approximate 4-point impact to margin compared to our expectations back in July. Fuel, combined with pricing moderation, have led us to revise our full year adjusted pretax margin to 7% to 8%, approximately 3 points lower than the midpoint of our prior guide. We expect CASMex to be down 3% to 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and our full year CASMex to now be down 1% to 2% on capacity, up 12% to 13%.

我們的經濟燃料成本從最初指南的中點開始增加，本季總成本增加了約 1.1 億美元，其中 5,000 萬美元來自煉油利潤差異或本季約 2 個百分點的利潤逆風。對於第四季度，我們預計每加侖燃油價格將在每加侖 3.30 美元至 3.40 美元之間，與我們 7 月份的預期相比，這對利潤率的影響約為 4 個百分點。燃油加上定價調整，導致我們將全年調整後稅前利潤率修改為 7% 至 8%，比我們先前指南的中位數低約 3 個百分點。我們預計第四季 CASMex 運力將年減 3% 至 5%，全年 CASMex 運力將下降 1% 至 2%，成長 12% 至 13%。

To close, we have run an excellent operation for several quarters. Our pretax margin exceeded peers with greater international tailwinds despite a refining margin disadvantage and sizable impacts from the Maui wildfires. We delivered a strong unit cost result for the quarter and have visibility to another strong result next quarter. We remain focused on and very intentional about setting targets and ensuring we take the right steps to deliver against them.

最後，我們幾季的營運都表現出色。儘管煉油利潤率處於劣勢且受到毛伊島野火的巨大影響，但我們的稅前利潤率仍超過了國際順風車較大的同行。我們在本季度取得了強勁的單位成本結果，並且可以預見下個季度的另一個強勁結果。我們仍然專注於設定目標，並確保我們採取正確的步驟來實現這些目標。

Our commercial offering with premium cabins and global access through our alliances is configured to compete in a way other domestically focused carriers cannot. Our operational strength has returned and our cost management is outperforming the industry, all of which are fundamental drivers of sustained long-term success.

我們的商業產品包括高級客艙和透過我們的聯盟進入全球的航線，其競爭方式是其他專注於國內的航空公司無法做到的。我們的營運實力已經恢復，成本管理也優於產業，所有這些都是持續長期成功的根本驅動力。

And with that, let's go to your questions.

接下來，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

So you gave an update, I think, a week or so into September. Can you just talk about what shifted over the latter part of the month? How that played out relative to kind of what you thought what, September 9?

所以我想你在九月一周左右的時候就更新了。您能談談這個月下旬發生了什麼變化嗎？ 9 月 9 日，你的想法如何？

Duane, it's Andrew. Yes, I think there was like at the beginning of September, I think we had reiterated our guide. I think 2 things. We were still getting our hands around Hawaii, which was deeply negative bookings, and we're trying to get clarity about where that was going to end up. And I think the other part was there was also right around that time with sort of that transition coming off the back end of a peak summer demand and also close in moving into the more traditional business season. And I think those couple of things combined. I think on $2.8 billion, it was probably like $15 million we're off. So that's the main reason. But fundamentally, the business was where we thought we were going to be.

杜安，是安德魯。是的，我想就像在九月初，我們重申了我們的指南。我認為有兩件事。我們仍在密切關注夏威夷的情況，那裡的預訂量非常低，我們正在努力弄清楚最終的結果。我認為另一部分也正是在那個時候，這種轉變是從夏季需求高峰的尾聲開始的，也即將進入更傳統的商業季節。我認為這兩件事結合在一起。我認為 28 億美元，我們可能損失了 1500 萬美元。這就是主要原因。但從根本上來說，業務就是我們所認為的目標。

Okay. And then just Segway to Hawaii. Can you maybe play back some history and talk about the current picture and maybe delineate between Maui and non-Maui bookings, that would be very helpful.

好的。然後就用賽格威去夏威夷。您能否回顧一些歷史並談論當前情況，並可能區分毛伊島和非毛伊島的預訂，這將非常有幫助。

Yes. I think like Maui obviously stands out significantly different, and we're making some of the capacity adjustments there. We did see during this horrible period of time, some bookings continue to move to other islands. But, as you know, Hawaii books well in advance. So essentially, pretty much the rest of the year for now, we were sort of reset, but as we go into next year, we don't see any reason that Maui won't continue to recover, and we won't see traditional good solid demand to our Hawaii franchise.

是的。我認為毛伊島顯然與眾不同，我們正在那裡進行一些容量調整。我們確實看到，在這段可怕的時期，一些預訂繼續轉移到其他島嶼。但是，如您所知，夏威夷提前預訂。因此，從本質上講，在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們已經進行了重置，但當我們進入明年時，我們沒有看到任何理由毛伊島不會繼續復甦，我們也不會看到傳統的復甦對我們夏威夷特許經營權的良好需求。

Okay. Sorry to be deliberate there. Hawaii bookings ex Maui, would you characterize that as stable/normal?

好的。抱歉我是故意的。從毛伊島出發的夏威夷預訂，您認為這是穩定/正常嗎？

They're a little softer than historical, but we've seen that for some time. I think just as -- just the capacity into the islands and, of course, some of the pricing presses in Hawaii, the cost of going to Hawaii. But overall, we feel pretty good about it being somewhat stable.

它們比歷史的要溫和一些，但我們已經看到這一點有一段時間了。我認為——只是進入島嶼的能力，當然還有夏威夷的一些定價壓力，以及去夏威夷的成本。但總的來說，我們對它的穩定性感到非常滿意。

Our next question will come from Savi Syth with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將由薩維·賽斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

I wonder if you could talk about the revenue trend where you are seeing kind of a better improvement of some of the -- your peers that have reported. And you talked about some of the components like how your capacity is developing, but I was curious if you can kind of provide a little bit more color on the contributors of that sequential improvement and how we should think about it then as you go into the first quarter and you make more adjustments as well?

我想知道您是否可以談談收入趨勢，您看到一些已經報告的同行有了更好的改善。您談到了一些組成部分，例如您的能力如何發展，但我很好奇您是否可以提供有關連續改進的貢獻者的更多信息，以及當您進入時我們應該如何考慮它第一季度你們也做了更多調整嗎？

Yes, thanks, Savi, it's very interesting. I think what's really positive and some of the sequential improvement is you just look at our capacity in the third quarter and how much higher it was versus '19 versus the fourth quarter. And then some of the -- as I shared in my prepared remarks, where we had pushed summer capacity out into the fall in some of these Mid-Con markets and some of these other key areas. We brought that capacity back down starting in October, and we're already seeing the positive effects of doing that.

是的，謝謝，薩維，這很有趣。我認為真正積極的、連續性的改進是，你只需看看我們第三季的產能，以及與 19 年第四季相比提高了多少。然後，正如我在準備好的演講中所分享的那樣，我們已將一些中型市場和其他一些關鍵領域的夏季產能推遲到秋季。我們從 10 月開始恢復了該容量，並且我們已經看到了這樣做的積極影響。

Got it. That's the big driver. And if I might, on the growth plans that you kind of mentioned for next year, it sounds like you're still kind of evaluating between 4% and 8%. The first half kind of maybe on the lower end of that 4%, it seems like? Or how should we think about maybe early indications? I know you're probably not ready to give a full guide.

知道了。這就是大司機。如果可以的話，關於你提到的明年的成長計劃，聽起來你仍然在 4% 到 8% 之間進行評估。上半年可能處於 4% 的下限，看起來是這樣嗎？或者我們應該如何考慮早期跡象？我知道您可能還沒有準備好提供完整的指南。

Yes. I mean that's correct. And we've been clear as we go into the first quarter, we're going to be around 3% or so over '19 levels. And again, we've looked really hard at our lowest demand period for Alaska at least in the January, February time period, and we feel like we've made some pretty good reductions there, and we made that well ahead of the bookings of those flight. So we feel really good about the setup as we go into the first quarter.

是的。我的意思是這是正確的。我們已經明確，進入第一季時，我們的成長率將比 19 年的水準提高 3% 左右。再說一次，我們非常認真地研究了阿拉斯加的最低需求期，至少在一月、二月期間，我們覺得我們在那裡做了一些相當不錯的削減，而且我們的預訂量遠遠領先於阿拉斯加的預訂量。那些航班。因此，當我們進入第一季時，我們對這種設置感覺非常好。

Will move next to Andrew Didora with BofA Global Research.

將接替安德魯·迪多拉 (Andrew Didora) 加入美國銀行全球研究部。

Andrew, in your prepared remarks, you said your -- it seems like you're booked well ahead for November than another airline that reported earlier today. Is the 58% sort of a normal cadence for you, or is it more of how you're looking at close in trending today and just wanting to book more of that a little bit further out than usual.

安德魯，在您準備好的發言中，您說您的 11 月機票預訂量似乎比今天早些時候報道的另一家航空公司提前了很多。 58% 對您來說是正常的節奏，還是更多的是您對今天趨勢的接近看法，只是想比平時更遠一點地預訂更多。

I think our comments were a little bit related to when you compare it back to, say, 2019 sort of Thanksgiving sort of falls within the month. So -- but if you average it out between Thanksgiving and Christmas sort of in November and December. We're probably a little higher on the bookings, but not very much. And right now, we're just making sure that we manage that coming in with good solid yield to close out the year.

我認為我們的評​​論與你將其與 2019 年感恩節進行比較時有點相關。所以——但如果你把感恩節和聖誕節平均起來，也就是十一月和十二月。我們的預訂量可能會高一些，但也不會高很多。現在，我們只是確保我們能夠以良好的穩定收益來結束今年。

Okay. Understood. And then also, Andrew, on the last call, I thought you shared some good statistics on the shift you're seeing to international bookings on your partners over the summer, curious if you've begun to see more of a normalization there and maybe share shift back to domestic, or do you continue to see that elevated international demand booking on your partners.

好的。明白了。然後，安德魯，在上次通話中，我認為您分享了一些關於今年夏天您看到的合作夥伴國際預訂轉變的良好統計數據，我想知道您是否已經開始看到更多的正常化，也許份額轉移回國內，或您是否繼續看到合作夥伴的國際預訂需求增加。

I think we're seeing exactly actually what we saw on the domestic front, whereas last year pushed well into the shoulder season. I think that's what we're seeing, at least from our members on the international. So just to remind folks, in the summer, we reported in that we were up sort of 50% of our members year-over-year accruing and redeeming internationally. That number is only 26% for the fourth quarter. So we're certainly seeing it coming down. And so of course, the question will be, will that get normalized by next year. What we're seeing right now is it's on its way to normalization.

我認為我們所看到的實際上正是我們在國內方面所看到的，而去年已經進入了平季。我認為這就是我們所看到的，至少從我們的國際成員那裡看到的。所以提醒大家，在夏天，我們報告說，我們的會員在國際上的累積和兌換同比增長了 50%。第四季這一數字僅為 26%。所以我們肯定會看到它的下降。當然，問題是，到明年這是否會正常化。我們現在看到的是它正在走向正常化。

And we'll move next to Helane Becker with TD Cowen.

接下來我們將與 TD Cowen 一起討論 Helane Becker。

Two questions. One, when you talk about -- maybe this is for Andrew, when you talk about optimization of the network, can you just describe maybe more fully what you're talking about? I know some of it is not flying as much in the first quarter in '24 as you did in '23 because of the shifts in the way people are flying and the fact that corporate probably back as far as it's going to go, right? I can't imagine that there are a lot of day trips between Seattle and Portland or Seattle and San Fran or L.A. anymore given the unreliability of exogenous pressures, right? So how do we think about what optimization exactly means?

兩個問題。一，當你談論——也許這是安德魯的，當你談論網路優化時，你能更全面地描述你所談論的內容嗎？我知道其中一些航班在 24 年第一季的飛行量不如 23 年，因為人們飛行方式的變化以及企業可能會回到原來的狀態，對嗎？考慮到外部壓力的不可靠性，我無法想像西雅圖和波特蘭、西雅圖和舊金山或洛杉磯之間有很多一日遊，對嗎？那我們該如何思考優化的確切意義呢？

Yes, Helane, I think, what I would say, when I talk about optimization, look, we're at a place now where we see where fuel is at elevated and has been for some time. The whole industry has a new set of structural unit costs. And we're also seeing sort of a settling down of overall capacity across the country. So given those things, we're looking much harder where we -- and business as you raise as another point, we're looking much harder about where we're putting our airplanes in high-frequency routes, leisure versus business time of year. Just to be frank, we've probably been less concerned about being more surgical during summer.

是的，Helane，我想，當我談論優化時，我想說的是，你看，我們現在正處於一個地方，我們看到燃料處於升高狀態，並且已經有一段時間了。整個產業有一套新的結構性單位成本。我們也看到全國範圍內的整體產能有所下降。因此，考慮到這些因素，我們正在更加努力地研究我們的業務——正如你提到的另一點，我們正在更加努力地研究我們將飛機放在高頻航線、一年中的休閒時間和商務時間的位置上。 。坦白說，我們可能不太擔心在夏天進行更多的手術。

But the reality is this past summer, you can certainly see as we get back to normalized booking patterns, there is definitely between July and September, very significant changes in demand profile. So we're going to do a much better job going forward, and we're already on it, is just realigning our supply of aircraft. So I think that's what I'm basically saying, and I think there's only good news from doing that.

但現實是，去年夏天，你當然可以看到，當我們恢復正常的預訂模式時，7 月到 9 月之間，需求狀況肯定會發生非常重大的變化。因此，我們將在未來做得更好，而且我們已經在著手，只是重新調整我們的飛機供應。所以我認為這就是我基本上要說的，而且我認為這樣做只會帶來好消息。

Okay. That's sort of helpful. Until things kind of revert to more normalized behavior, and you have to fix it again. But that's not a new problem. My other follow-up question on the A321s that are being -- I thought those were actually going to be leased in aircraft, but they're being transferred over to American. So I didn't see it in the press release, but that doesn't mean anything. It just means I didn't see it. Can you talk about the accounting for that? Can you comment on the cost of what they're paying you or any information that would help us think about that for you guys.

好的。這有點幫助。直到事情恢復到更正常的行為，你必須再次修復它。但這並不是一個新問題。我的另一個關於 A321 的後續問題是——我以為這些飛機實際上會被租用在飛機上，但它們正在轉移到美國航空。所以我沒有在新聞稿中看到它，但這並不意味著什麼。這只能說明我沒看到。能談談其中的會計處理嗎？您能否評論一下他們向您支付的費用或任何可以幫助我們為您考慮這個問題的資訊。

Helane, it's Matt. Thanks for the question. I'd say this transaction is probably one of the more complicated ones that I've seen in my 25 years of doing this. But our thinking on it is really simple. We've been public in that there's 6 to 8 years left on these above-market leases that Alaska acquired as part of the Virgin transaction. And our objective was just to find a transaction and build it that economically offset those remaining obligations. We've been working it for 12 to 18 months and just happy to get this process to a close because as you know, this is the last unlock to truly get us to single fleet.

海蘭，是馬特。謝謝你的提問。我想說，這筆交易可能是我 25 年從事此行業以來見過的最複雜的交易之一。但我們的想法非常簡單。我們已經公開表示，作為維珍交易的一部分，阿拉斯加獲得的這些高於市場價格的租約還剩 6 到 8 年。我們的目標只是找到一項交易並進行交易，以在經濟上抵消這些剩餘的義務。我們已經為此工作了 12 到 18 個月，很高興能夠結束這個過程，因為如您所知，這是真正讓我們實現單一艦隊的最後一次解鎖。

Just like we don't comment on pricing on -- in the airline. I'm not going to comment on pricing of what American is paying us, but we feel good about the economics. And again, covering what our PV of lease obligations was through the extended period of those leases. And then I'm going to kick it to Emily on the accounting side, just where that is.

就像我們不對航空公司的定價發表評論一樣。我不會評論美國人付給我們的價格，但我們對經濟感覺良好。再次，涵蓋我們的租賃義務的現值是在這些租賃的延長期間。然後我會把會計方面的事情交給艾米莉，就在那裡。

Thanks, Matt. Helane, we have taken the vast majority of which are depicted with these transitions to P&L already. You've seen those in special charges over the last 12 to 18 months, as Matt noted. Cash-wise, we're about 2/3 of the way through the cash that we're going to incur with is, of course, as we've purchased the lease or the planes from the lessors and then we sell the planes to America, and there will be cash inflows and outflows. So about 2/3 of the $300 million to $350 million total cash exposure that we've shared with you guys previously, we've already incurred that. And then the remaining 1/3 will happen over the next 2 quarters.

謝謝，馬特。 Helane，我們已經將其中的絕大多數描述為損益表的轉變。正如馬特指出的那樣，在過去 12 到 18 個月裡，您已經看到了那些受到特殊指控的人。就現金而言，我們大約使用了 2/3 的現金，當然，因為我們從出租人那裡購買了租賃或飛機，然後將飛機出售給美國，會有現金流入和流出。因此，我們之前與大家分享的 3 億至 3.5 億美元總現金敞口中，大約有 2/3 已經發生了。剩下的 1/3 將在接下來的 2 個季度發生。

And we'll hear next from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

接下來我們將聽到 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham 的演講。

Helane, maybe you can submit those notes on the accounting. (inaudible) year, it seems like on cost side. Could you just talk about some of the moving parts as you think about headwinds, maybe in the content, so productivity offsets that you, that are clearly in the cost structure now.

Helane，也許你可以提交有關會計的註釋。 （聽不清楚）年，似乎在成本方面。當您考慮逆風時，您能否談談一些移動部分，也許是在內容中，因此生產力抵消了您的影響，這顯然在成本結構中。

Conor, thanks. It's Shane. Bringing up a tiny, but I think you were asking about 2024 sort of puts and takes on costs. I'll be high level, I think we're not quite ready to fully discuss '24 or cost guidance or anything like that. But the areas that we'll have headwinds won't be a surprise. I think there's continued investment in airport infrastructure that we'll see come into the P&L next year. Really across all of our major hubs, and that's just a generational reinvestment that is needed in these airports. There'll still be some labor cost headwinds.

康納，謝謝。是謝恩。提到了一點，但我認為你問的是 2024 年的看跌期權和承擔成本。我將發表高水準的講話，我認為我們還沒有準備好充分討論 24 小時或成本指導或類似的問題。但我們會遇到阻力的領域並不令人意外。我認為對機場基礎設施​​的持續投資將在明年計入損益表中。確實在我們所有的主要樞紐中，這只是這些機場所需的一代人的再投資。勞動成本仍存在一些阻力。

We've got to annualize the market rate adjustment we did with the pilots. We're really hopeful we get the TA with our mechanics fully ratified. We'll have that in the cost base next year. And then pretty much the entire industry needs to get contracts done with flight attendants, which we're really anxious to do and actively in the process of negotiating I think on the other side, we've now got truly a single fleet. We should have almost every Airbus pilot trained over to the Boeing by the end of the year.

我們必須將試點計畫進行的市場利率調整進行年度化。我們真的希望我們的技術人員能夠得到技術援助的完全認可。我們明年將其納入成本基礎中。然後幾乎整個行業都需要與空服員簽訂合同，我們真的很渴望這樣做，並且在談判過程中積極進行，我認為另一方面，我們現在已經擁有了真正的單一機隊。到今年年底，我們應該讓幾乎所有空中巴士飛行員都接受波音訓練。

And really, we need to start looking at leaning out the operation and focusing again on productivity. That we started to do this quarter. I think we've got a good trend through the end of the year. We've been waiting for these trends. We're happy to see them now, and we just need to leverage them into next year.

事實上，我們需要開始考慮精簡營運並再次專注於生產力。我們本季開始這樣做。我認為到今年年底我們的趨勢很好。我們一直在等待這些趨勢。我們很高興現在看到它們，我們只需要在明年利用它們。

So it's really about making the more efficient, taking some of the buffer out that we've got in there today. We'll go slow on it. We're not going to risk operational resilience at all. It took us a lot to get to where we are in the operation, we're going to keep operating well, but lots of opportunity to get more productive over the next couple of years.

因此，這其實是為了提高效率，去掉我們今天已經有的一些緩衝區。我們會慢慢來。我們根本不會拿營運彈性冒險。我們花了很多時間才達到目前的營運水平，我們將繼續良好運營，但在接下來的幾年裡有很多機會提高生產力。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you guys are being pretty rational in '24, it seems versus an industry that's really not at the current moment. Like when you think about potential share losses versus protecting margins. Does that matter to you in the near term if it's potentially just a temporary thing? Just curious how you think about it given the fact that you're pulling on so much growth relative to some of the others out there.

好的。這很有幫助。然後你們在 24 年變得相當理性，這似乎與當前的行業相比。就像當你考慮潛在的股票損失與保護利潤時一樣。如果這可能只是暫時的事情，那麼短期內這對您來說重要嗎？只是好奇你是如何看待這個問題的，因為相對於其他一些公司來說，你的成長速度如此之快。

Conor, it's Ben. Of course, market share matters to us, especially in our key hubs. So we will protect our key hubs fiercely and maintain the market share. Of course, we're going to look at areas where there won't be such an impact to us. But again, this industry is very capacity-dependent, and it has a huge leverage on profitability.

康納，是本。當然，市場佔有率對我們很重要，尤其是在我們的主要樞紐。因此，我們將大力保護我們的關鍵樞紐並保持市場份額。當然，我們會考慮哪些領域不會對我們產生如此大的影響。但同樣，這個行業非常依賴產能，並且對獲利能力具有巨大的槓桿作用。

So we're going to take a hard look. The teams are out there looking at next year's capacity. And like Andrew said, we're going to look at Q1 really hard, fringing on days where we have to fringe and flying hard where, we can fly hard. So it's a delicate balance, but we're determined to get as close to right as we can on this.

所以我們要仔細看看。這些團隊正在考慮明年的產能。正如安德魯所說，我們將非常努力地看待第一季度，在我們必須邊緣化的日子裡，在我們可以努力飛行的地方努力飛行。所以這是一個微妙的平衡，但我們決心在這方面盡可能接近正確的平衡。

Our next question will come from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So I know we're all chasing what normal seasonality is, and they're already on a couple of questions on the call. But I'm wondering to what extent do you think it's return to office that's kind of impacted shoulder season compared to the last couple of years? And kind of maybe that's restricting the ability of the so-called leisure travel, if you will, and that actually sets up for peak year peaks in the next couple of go-arounds.

所以我知道我們都在追求正常的季節性，他們已經在電話會議上回答了幾個問題。但我想知道，與過去幾年相比，您認為重返辦公室對平季的影響有多大？如果你願意的話，這可能會限制所謂的休閒旅行的能力，而這實際上會在接下來的幾次復飛中達到高峰。

Ravi, so I just -- you mentioned returned to office. And I think we all see the public statistics sort of think sort of slowly climbing its way back, but still a long way off. What I would share is that we have seen between September and October, especially in high tech, where we've started to see in some places for some accounts, a decent uptick in travel, albeit overall general yields and not where we have seen them historically. So I think this is still a moving subject. But I think if you just look at the macro size of our network and traditional business versus leisure, I think for us, specifically, I think it's just beyond more -- some of these leisure traveler type conversation.

拉維，所以我剛剛——你提到回到辦公室。我認為我們都看到公共統計數據正在慢慢回升，但還有很長的路要走。我想分享的是，我們在9 月至10 月期間看到，特別是在高科技領域，我們開始在某些地方看到某些帳戶的旅行量出現了可觀的增長，儘管總體收益率與我們所看到的情況不同。從歷史上看。所以我認為這仍然是一個動人的話題。但我認為，如果你只看我們網路的宏觀規模以及傳統商務與休閒的比較，我認為對我們來說，具體來說，我認為這超出了一些休閒旅行者類型的對話。

But what we are seeing is beginning to see a little more strength come in on the corporate side. And again, we just have a lot of opportunity on our core high-frequency route, getting those to a place where they can support the current demand as well as the new unit cost of production that the industry now faces.

但我們看到的是，企業方面開始出現更多的力量。再說一次，我們在核心高頻路線上有很多機會，讓這些機會可以支持當前的需求以及現在產業面臨的新的單位生產成本。

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of you kind of -- you spoke about how you're being more rational than many of your peers and capacity growth for next year. But you also kind of mentioned a few headwinds. So if you were to rank the current softness in the domestic demand environment, extreme capacity growth plans by our competitors or fuel headwinds? Like what's the order of those 3 headwinds that would make you kind of question your capacity growth plans next year relative to what you currently have in mind?

知道了。也許作為後續行動，您談到了您如何比許多同行更加理性以及明年的產能成長。但您也提到了一些不利因素。那麼，如果您要對當前國內需求環境的疲軟、我們競爭對手的極端產能成長計畫或燃料逆風進行排名？這三個不利因素的順序是什麼，它們會讓您對明年的產能成長計畫相對於您目前的想法產生疑問？

I think fuel for us is a big one, Ravi, especially with like we talked about, the L.A. refining margins on the West Coast, we're paying $0.30 a gallon more than everyone else across the country. So that is a huge headwind for us. In terms of capacity, we can't control what our competitors do. What I can say is we're confident with our business model. Andrew talked about it in the prepared remarks, we have a remarkable premium product. We are not we may be low cost, but we're a premium brand airline.

我認為燃料對我們來說是一個大問題，拉維，特別是像我們談到的那樣，洛杉磯西海岸的煉油利潤，我們每加侖支付的費用比全國其他所有人多 0.30 美元。所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的阻力。就產能而言，我們無法控制競爭對手的行為。我能說的是我們對我們的商業模式充滿信心。安德魯在準備好的演講中談到，我們有一個非凡的優質產品。我們可能不是廉價航空公司，但我們是一家優質品牌航空公司。

And I believe that we can always extract the higher revenues because of the brand we have, our premium offerings, lounges and global access. So I would say fuel is the biggest headwind. The other thing I would say, when we cost up, we have cost discipline in our DNA. And we've shown this year that we brought unit costs down. This is something that we're wired for. We're wired for high productivity of resources and assets. And so I feel confident we're going to get back to the place that we've been in single fleet, I am just ecstatic starting October 1st that we're now back to an all-Boeing fleet, and I think you're really going to start seeing those synergy fees come in. So those are the things, I think, for us, that we can control. And I think we have the right setup in the business model to go execute.

我相信，由於我們擁有的品牌、優質產品、休息室和全球訪問權限，我們總是可以獲得更高的收入。所以我想說燃料是最大的阻力。我想說的另一件事是，當我們提高成本時，我們的 DNA 中就有成本紀律。今年我們已經證明我們降低了單位成本。這是我們的使命。我們致力於資源和資產的高生產力。因此，我有信心我們將回到單一機隊的狀態，從 10 月 1 日開始，我感到欣喜若狂，我們現在又回到了全波音機隊，我認為你們真的會開始看到這些協同費用的進來。所以我認為，對我們來說，這些都是我們可以控制的。我認為我們在商業模式中有正確的設定可以執行。

We'll move next to Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

我們將轉到德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg 旁邊。

Andrew, you talked about -- as you look out towards holiday travel, you mentioned that loads are up a couple of points, yields are up double digits. So obviously, that looks very good for the latter part of the year. Does that hold or do you think some of that also reflects the shifting of the booking curve? Or maybe in the past, we saw people booking closer in and maybe this holiday season. as you've said before, seasonality is returning, booking curves are becoming more elongated. How much of that is possibly going to shift or change because of those factors?

安德魯，你談到——當你展望假日旅行時，你提到運載量上升了幾個百分點，收益率上升了兩位數。顯然，今年下半年的情況看起來非常好。這是否成立，或者您認為其中一些也反映了預訂曲線的變化？或者也許在過去，我們看到人們在更近的時間預訂，也許在這個假期。正如您之前所說，季節性正在回歸，預訂曲線變得更加拉長。由於這些因素，其中有多少可能會發生轉變或改變？

Mike, just for clarity, the comments that you just shared that I had made was versus 2019. I think yes, because last year, obviously, was very different, very different fare environment capacity set up. So we just wanted to anchor back in on 2019, which is a very stable, normalized year. And so we've been very encouraged by what we've seen. And I think as we've seen, I think, when you look at the industry right now, when you look at 2019, our unit revenues sequentially flat Q3 to Q4, where the industry is down anywhere from 1 to 5 points.

麥克，為了清楚起見，你剛剛分享的我所做的評論是與 2019 年相比的。我認為是的，因為去年顯然非常不同，票價環境容量設定也非常不同。所以我們只想回到 2019 年，這是非常穩定、正常化的一年。因此，我們所看到的一切讓我們深受鼓舞。我認為，正如我們所看到的，當你現在審視這個行業時，當你審視 2019 年時，我們的單位收入在第三季度到第四季度連續持平，行業下降了 1 到 5 個百分點。

And then if you look at '23, as we said, we're up 3 points where the industry is sort of flat to up 1%. So we feel like, number one, I would say that what we are seeing at least in our network is outside of this business travel matter, back to sort of normal booking curves, normal demand environment. And I think some of the reduced capacity and reallocation of capacity is serving us very well.

然後，如果你看看 23 年，正如我們所說，我們上漲了 3 個百分點，而該行業的漲幅則持平至 1%。所以我們覺得，第一，我想說的是，我們至少在我們的網路中看到的是商務旅行問題之外的情況，回到了正常的預訂曲線、正常的需求環境。我認為一些產能的減少和產能的重新分配對我們很有幫助。

Okay. Great. And then just a quick second one. I don't know if you mentioned this or it was Shane, who said, look, the goal next year is to return back to 2019 levels on a productivity basis, a little bit different than sort of a network optimization. But if we get back to 2019 productivity, help me translate that into like a CASM benefit. Is that like a point or 2 of CASM tailwind? And how long does it take to actually get to 2019 productivity? Is that through the year? Or is that a 25-type objective? Any color on that would be great.

好的。偉大的。然後是快速的第二個。我不知道你是否提到過這一點，或者是 Shane，他說，看，明年的目標是在生產力基礎上回到 2019 年的水平，這與網絡優化有點不同。但如果我們恢復到 2019 年的生產力，請幫助我將其轉化為 CASM 收益。這就像 CASM 順風的 1 點或 2 點嗎？真正達到 2019 年生產力需要多長時間？就這樣過了年嗎？或者說這是25型目標？任何顏色都會很棒。

Mike, it's Shane. One thing, let me -- I'll clarify. I think it's going to take us a couple of years to 2019. We're going to work it methodically. And like I said, a couple of answers ago, we're not going to overly stress the operation now that we've got it working really well. It's worth at least a couple of points, all else equal, of unit costs. If there were no other puts and takes. I mean, I would say, minimally, it's worth that.

麥克，這是謝恩。一件事，讓我——我會澄清一下。我認為到 2019 年我們還需要幾年的時間。我們將有條不紊地開展工作。就像我在幾個答案之前所說的那樣，我們不會過度強調操作，因為我們已經讓它運行得很好。在其他條件相同的情況下，它的單位成本至少值幾個點。如果沒有其他的看跌期權。我的意思是，我想說，至少，這是值得的。

I think we signed a single fleet alone at $75 million of benefit, and then we have less productivity in many areas, whether it's aircraft utilization or other work groups. And all of those are opportunities to get better from where we are. I think we're doing better than the rest of our competitors generally. And I think our focus has been, will continue to be to come out of all of this with the best relative change in cost structure. And I think we're well on our way to doing that.

我認為我們僅以 7500 萬美元的收益簽署了一個機隊，然後我們在許多領域的生產力較低，無論是飛機利用率還是其他工作組。所有這些都是讓我們變得更好的機會。我認為我們總體上比其他競爭對手做得更好。我認為我們的重點一直是，並將繼續是透過成本結構的最佳相對變化來擺脫這一切。我認為我們正在努力做到這一點。

Your next question will come from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將由摩根大通的 Jamie Baker 提出。

So the 45% of revenue outside of Main Cabin, can you break that down into various buckets. Is it as simple as premium being 31% and then the rest is just loyalty in cargo. Also, as part of the main cabin, so it was part of the 55%. Any color on how basic -- or sorry, Sabre contribution has changed year-on-year?

那麼，Main Cabin 之外的 45% 收入，您能將其分解為不同的部分嗎？是不是像保費31%那麼簡單，剩下的就是對貨物的忠誠了。而且，作為主艙的一部分，所以它是55%的一部分。有什麼顏色可以說明基礎程度嗎？或者抱歉，Sabre 的貢獻同比發生了變化？

Thanks, Jamie. We're not going to go into the details of that, obviously. I think you've heard other airlines quote. We don't have MROs and other things, but we feel very diversified as it relates to what is not the main cabin. I think in our slides, we provide some of that breakdown there, about 35% of it is premium cabins and some carriers have 0%. So I think as we've shared all along, we feel like we live more in the group right now that has premium product and global reach as it relates to our business model versus those that do not.

謝謝，傑米。顯然，我們不會詳細討論這一點。我想您聽說過其他航空公司的報價。我們沒有 MRO 和其他東西，但我們感覺非常多樣化，因為它與主艙以外的東西有關。我認為在我們的幻燈片中，我們提供了其中的一些細分，其中大約 35% 是高級客艙，而一些航空公司的比例為 0%。因此，我認為正如我們一直以來所分享的那樣，我們覺得我們現在更多地生活在擁有優質產品和全球影響力的集團中，因為這與我們的商業模式相關，而不是那些不相關的集團。

Yes. I think, Jamie, I think the point in here with those stats is just to differentiate us among domestic carriers. We are the only domestic carrier with that suite of offerings with the premium, again, lounges, the global access, this equivalent redemption of miles, we do separate ourselves from I think what do you call low.

是的。我認為，傑米，我認為這些統計數據的目的只是為了將我們與國內航空公司區分開來。我們是唯一提供全套服務的國內航空公司，其中包括高級休息室、全球通行權、相當於里程兌換的服務，我們確實將自己與您所說的低價格區分開來。

LMA, low-margin airline.

LMA，低利潤航空公司。

You came up with a new acronym. Like my point here is we are not in that group based on the offerings. We invested heavily in our product. We have over 300 airplanes in our fleet. Every airplane in our fleet, including regional has a first class, has a premium product. And again, when you add our oneworld membership, our global access, our lounges, it is a compelling product. And to be honest, Jamie, it's why our margin is equivalent to Delta and United in Q3 despite not having the international tailwinds and having the headwinds of Maui and the refining margins. So the business model is resilient.

你想出了一個新的縮寫。就像我在這裡的觀點是，根據產品，我們不屬於那個群體。我們對我們的產品投入了大量資金。我們的機隊擁有 300 多架飛機。我們機隊中的每架飛機（包括支線飛機）都擁有頭等艙，擁有優質產品。再說一遍，當您添加我們的 oneworld 會員資格、我們的全球訪問權限、我們的休息室時，它就是一個引人注目的產品。說實話，傑米，這就是為什麼我們的利潤率在第三季相當於達美航空和聯合航空，儘管沒有國際順風，並且有毛伊島和煉油利潤的逆風。所以商業模式是有彈性的。

And last, Jamie, you asked about Sabre, it's doing quite well, too. It's up strong double digits year-over-year. And I think it also speaks and you've heard this from other airlines, we can access the price-sensitive part of the market really well, too. So we've been able to...

最後，傑米，你問到了 Sabre，它也表現得很好。較去年同期成長兩位數。我認為這也說明了這一點，您也從其他航空公司那裡聽到這一點，我們也可以很好地進入市場中對價格敏感的部分。所以我們已經能夠...

That was one reason I asked Yes. Yes. No, listen, I appreciate the color. But so let me press on premium, you cited -- you're obviously enthusiastic about it. It's an area for growth. You leaned into this when you answered Ravi's question a couple of moments ago, should we think about premium growth more as yield upside? Or as you think about that 4% to 8% capacity number, are you considering possibly expanding the cabin? I ask in part because American spoke to this just a couple of hours ago, so it's top of mind.

這是我問「是」的原因之一。是的。不，聽著，我很欣賞這個顏色。但讓我強調一下溢價，你引用說——你顯然對此很熱衷。這是一個成長的領域。當您不久前回答拉維的問題時，您傾向於這個問題，我們是否應該將保費增長更多地視為收益率上升？或者當您考慮 4% 到 8% 的載客量時，您是否正在考慮擴大機艙？我問這個問題的部分原因是美國航空公司幾個小時前才談到這個問題，所以這是我最關心的問題。

Yes. I'll take that. I think I don't think you're going to see like a wholesale refurbishment of the interiors. I will say that we're still working on our MAX 8 interior, and we would love to get 16 first-class seats, and that our 8 carry 12 today. The rest of the mainline fleet carries 16. And it's relatively small, but could have ...

是的。我會接受的。我認為你不會看到室內裝潢的大規模翻新。我想說的是，我們仍在開發 MAX 8 的內飾，我們希望獲得 16 個頭等艙座位，而我們的 8 號座位今天可容納 12 個座位。其餘的干線機隊載有 16 艘。雖然相對較小，但可以...

59 airplanes.

59 架飛機。

Yes, 59 airplanes. And it could have a good impact, obviously, for us once we get there, but that's a couple of years off if we end up getting it done.

是的，59 架飛機。顯然，一旦我們到達那裡，它可能會對我們產生良好的影響，但如果我們最終完成它，那還需要幾年的時間。

We'll hear next from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將聽到斯科特集團和沃爾夫研究公司的消息。

Thanks. So I just want to go back to this fourth quarter RASM re-acceleration just given the implied September trends. So I just want to understand, are you seeing this already show up in October? Or is this more of a November, December? And I guess, that's a direct question. Just philosophically, like if we're slowing capacity and we're seeing sort of an immediate RASM benefit, like why you even think about 4% to 8% for next year? Why isn't it like we're not going to grow until we actually start grow at all until we see positive RASM again.

謝謝。因此，我只想回到第四季 RASM 的重新加速，考慮到 9 月的隱含趨勢。所以我只是想了解一下，您是否看到這已經在十月出現了？還是這更像是十一月、十二月？我想，這是一個直接的問題。從哲學上講，就像如果我們放慢產能並且我們會立即看到 RASM 的好處，就像為什麼你會考慮明年 4% 到 8% 的收益？為什麼我們不會成長，直到我們真正開始成長，直到我們再次看到積極的 RASM。

Yes, I'll let that Andrew -- Yes. No, no. I think it's a good question, Scott. Andrew can speak to the -- where we're seeing the sequential improvement if it's already on the books or sort of to come. I think on the capacity, I think the way to think about it is we've been pretty clear about our first quarter capacity being relatively modest, certainly versus 2019. Andrew mentioned in the script, we were up 6 points versus 2019 and Q3, 2 points in Q4. So at least, from our view, Scott, I think what you're asking is exactly what we're doing. We're not ready to talk about full year next year yet. But right now, given fuel and where we see pricing, we're making the right decisions in terms of capacity management.

是的，我會讓那個安德魯——是的。不，不。我認為這是一個很好的問題，斯科特。安德魯可以談談——我們正在看到連續的改進，如果它已經記錄在案或即將出現的話。我認為就產能而言，我認為思考這個問題的方法是，我們非常清楚我們第一季的產能相對溫和，當然與2019 年相比。安德魯在劇本中提到，我們比2019 年和第三季度成長了6 個百分點，第四季2分。所以至少，從我們的角度來看，史考特，我認為你所問的正是我們正在做的事。我們還沒準備好談論明年全年的情況。但現在，考慮到燃料和我們看到的定價，我們正在容量管理方面做出正確的決策。

And the only other thing I would add there, Scott, and you don't see this obviously in the details, but even the reduction in growth relatively speaking, has been helpful for sure. We also had some regions with some very significant growth. And I mean, very significant. And I think we've abated those back down to more normalized levels, and that's where we're seeing the greatest upside with some of this slowing capacity. So there's micro regions which we've really dialed it back, and we're seeing immediate help from that.

斯科特，我要補充的唯一一件事是，你在細節中看不到這一點，但即使相對而言增長的減少，也肯定是有幫助的。我們也有一些地區出現了非常顯著的成長。我的意思是，非常重要。我認為我們已經將這些降低到更正常化的水平，這就是我們看到容量放緩帶來的最大好處的地方。因此，我們確實在某些微觀區域進行了回撥，並且我們立即看到了幫助。

So you are seeing some of it already in October?

那麼您在十月就已經看到了其中的一些內容嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then, Shane, you talked about working on some pushing out some deliveries. What does that mean for overall CapEx next year?

好的。然後，肖恩，你談到了要努力推出一些交付。這對明年的整體資本支出意味著什麼？

Just for color, so you guys sort of understand, and I had mentioned this high level in the prepared remarks. We're going to be at $1.7 billion this year, down from our original thoughts about CapEx in 2023. And it's going to be under that next year. I think we're not quite ready to say how much, but I would think in the couple of hundred million dollar range minimally. We'll say more about that in the January call. Matt can just very briefly speak to what we're doing with on the great partners in this. And it speaks to the flexibility that we were able to build into this order book with them.

只是為了顏色，所以你們有點理解，我在準備好的評論中提到了這個高水準。今年我們的資本支出將達到 17 億美元，低於我們對 2023 年資本支出的最初想法。明年也會低於這個數字。我認為我們還沒有準備好透露多少，但我認為至少在幾億美元範圍內。我們將在一月份的電話會議中對此進行更多討論。馬特可以非常簡短地談論我們正在與偉大的合作夥伴一起做的事情。這說明了我們能夠與他們一起在訂單簿中建立靈活性。

Scott, we are working with Boeing just to reshape '24 and even into '25 a bit to a capacity level that we think maximizes profitability. One of the other variables that we're managing is the MAX 10 certification. So better playing originally scheduled to come to us next year. Certification, obviously, is its own story and pushing out to the right. So good common ground with us and Boeing to sort through when does that airplane come the economics we've been really clear on how much we like the MAX 10, and we want to take as many of those as we can. So it gave us to join impetus to then let's reshape '24 and as a result, manage our capacity down a little bit. You've heard us talk before, we leveraged the proximity with Boeing. We talk to them all the time, and it's really good partnership with great flexibility.

斯科特，我們正在與波音合作，只是為了重塑“24”甚至“25”，達到我們認為能夠最大化盈利能力的產能水平。我們正在管理的其他變數之一是 MAX 10 認證。所以原定明年會有更好的比賽。顯然，認證是它自己的故事，並且向右推。我們和波音公司之間有很好的共同點，我們非常清楚我們有多喜歡 MAX 10，我們希望盡可能多地購買這架飛機。因此，它給了我們共同的動力，讓我們重塑 24 年，從而稍微減少我們的產能。您以前聽過我們的談話，我們利用了與波音公司的接近優勢。我們一直與他們交談，這是非常好的合作夥伴關係，而且非常靈活。

And we'll take our next question from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays Capital.

我們將回答巴克萊資本的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基的下一個問題。

So I heard some comments earlier about trying to be disciplined around growth. And I know you guys have mentioned that you're going to try to slow growth in the first quarter next year. But I guess just thinking through some of these trends that you're talking about with lower corporate shoulder demand being a little bit less than you would have thought. Is this just -- looking forward, should we expect margins at Alaska are just going to be lower in 4Q and 1Q structurally? I mean, they have historically, but should we expect even more volatility in the future? And does that reshape your commercial focus, I guess, during your peak periods? Do you take more price then? I mean how do you reshape the formula to get the prior margin targets that you guys have set out?

所以我早些時候聽到了一些關於試圖在成長方面受到約束的評論。我知道你們已經提到你們將嘗試在明年第一季減緩成長。但我想，只要仔細考慮一下您所談論的一些趨勢，企業肩部需求就會比您想像的要少一些。這是否只是——展望未來，我們是否應該預期阿拉斯加的利潤率在第四季和第一季會結構性地降低？我的意思是，歷史上確實如此，但我們是否應該預期未來會出現更大的波動？我想，這是否會重塑您在高峰期的商業重點？那你還要加價嗎？我的意思是，你們如何重塑公式以獲得你們設定的先前利潤目標？

Yes. Thanks, Brandon. I actually think about it a little bit the opposite. I think the work that Andrew is doing and his team are doing in the first quarter is meant to improve the margin profile of the first quarter. I think we talked 2 calls ago that Ben had given the commercial team a challenge over the course of a few years, move back towards breakeven in the first quarter. We are the most seasonal airline, the sort of peakest airline. We have been through basically all cycles. So we understand when and where we make all of our money.

是的。謝謝，布蘭登。事實上我的想法有點相反。我認為安德魯和他的團隊在第一季所做的工作是為了改善第一季的利潤狀況。我想我們之前兩次通話時談到，本在幾年的時間裡給商業團隊帶來了挑戰，在第一季恢復盈虧平衡。我們是最季節性的航空公司，也是最高峰的航空公司。我們基本上經歷了所有的週期。所以我們知道我們何時何地賺到了所有的錢。

And I think we're really good at managing capacity in the peak environments. Q4, honestly, I think this is a bit of an aberration. I think the results are really a consequence of this refining margin differential in fuel price and the continued but normalizing surge in international demand. And I think once that normalized business we're set up really well to do good. In Q4, we'll probably be somewhat lower than some of the other carriers who tend to have less peakiness in the year, but I think we'll be more competitive on a relative basis as we move forward.

我認為我們非常擅長管理高峰環境中的容量。 Q4，老實說，我認為這有點失常。我認為，這一結果實際上是燃料價格煉油利潤差異以及國際需求持續但正常化激增的結果。我認為一旦業務正常化，我們就可以做好做好事的準備。在第四季度，我們可能會比其他一些運營商稍低一些，這些運營商在今年的高峰期往往較少，但我認為隨著我們的前進，我們在相對基礎上將更具競爭力。

Okay. I appreciate that response. But I guess as you reshape the first quarter, that's kind of at odds with the prior view that long-term CASM could actually decline in the out years, right? Is that why I heard you say it's going to be -- take a couple of years to get back to those productivity targets?

好的。我很欣賞這個回應。但我想，當你重塑第一季時，這與之前的觀點有些不一致，即長期 CASM 實際上可能會在未來幾年下降，對嗎？這就是為什麼我聽到你說需要幾年時間才能恢復這些生產力目標？

Well, look, I think it's very correct to think that there's a correlation between capacity deployment and unit cost the more we deploy capacity, the easier it is to see the cost decline. But we haven't lifted it off of the idea of unit cost ultimately going down over time. We'll say more about 2024 and the trajectory when we're talking about guidance for next year, Brandon, but this is something we're thinking about a lot. I'll just reiterate as we come out of all of this, we're going to have exposure to all segments of demand, including premium.

好吧，我認為容量部署和單位成本之間存在相關性是非常正確的，我們部署容量越多，就越容易看到成本下降。但我們並沒有擺脫單位成本最終會隨著時間的推移而下降的想法。 Brandon，當我們談論明年的指導時，我們會更多地談論 2024 年和軌跡，但這是我們經常思考的事情。我只想重申，當我們走出這一切時，我們將接觸到所有需求領域，包括保費。

We're going to increasingly be attractive from an international perspective to our partners. And I think we're going to have the best relative cost structure story of anybody in the industry. And so I think our setup is really good to continue to be a margin and financial performance leader over the long term.

從國際角度來看，我們對合作夥伴的吸引力將會越來越大。我認為我們將擁有業內最好的相對成本結構故事。因此，我認為我們的設置非常好，能夠長期保持利潤率和財務表現的領先地位。

Your next question comes from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

So we've heard from 2 of your peers so far that the tech sector in San Francisco in particular have seen a recent uptick in corporate travel. It sounds like you didn't see that in the third quarter. I think your comment was stable. But then just mentioned to Ravi, there's been some momentum in October. Can you just help us size order of magnitude, that improvement you've seen? And is that coming from San BrandanTech or anything else you'd want to highlight in the recent improvement?

到目前為止，我們從兩位同行得知，最近舊金山的科技業的商務旅行有所增加。聽起來你在第三季沒有看到這一點。我認為你的評論很穩定。但剛才向拉維提到，十月出現了一些勢頭。您能幫我們確定您所看到的改進的數量級嗎？這是來自 San BrandanTech 還是您想在最近的改進中強調的其他內容？

Thanks, Catie. Yes, I mean, and certainly some of the larger technology companies have seen quite a significant movement in volume. And of course, it depends where they fly. As I said, some of the yield environment right now has offset some of those volumes. But for sure, there has been positive movement in California, Pacific Northwest, these big techs cover both regions actually. So some promising signs there.

謝謝，凱蒂。是的，我的意思是，當然，一些較大的科技公司的銷售量發生了相當大的變化。當然，這取決於他們飛去哪裡。正如我所說，目前的一些收益率環境已經抵消了其中的一些數量。但可以肯定的是，加州、太平洋西北地區已經出現了積極的變化，這些大型科技公司實際上涵蓋了這兩個地區。所以有一些有希望的跡象。

Okay. Great. And then maybe for Shane, pardon the modeling question, but just trying to get a sense of the aircraft rent tailwind into next year. Is there further downside to 3Q, $48 million in aircraft rent and some of those aircraft exit in September. Can you just help us think about what the right exit rate is for this year on that line item? And are there any additions on lease aircraft, we should be thinking about into next year?

好的。偉大的。然後，也許對肖恩來說，請原諒模型問題，但只是想了解明年飛機租賃的順風車。第三季的飛機租金為 4,800 萬美元，其中一些飛機已於 9 月退出，這是否會進一步下滑。您能否幫我們考慮一下今年該訂單項目的正確退出率是多少？明年我們應該考慮租賃飛機方面是否有任何新增內容？

Catie, this is Emily. What you saw this quarter in terms of aircraft point was a pretty good normalized level. We've now removed all the Airbus leased aircraft from the books. So you're not seeing that rent come through. We've taken delivery of all the MAX lease aircraft that we're going to have, which is the 13 -- I believe, 13 over the last year. So that's pretty normalized now. You will start to see from an ownership perspective, depreciation will tick up to offset some of that as we've taken on so many new MAX aircraft and those will start depreciating through the books.

凱蒂，這是艾米莉。您在本季度看到的飛機積分是一個相當不錯的標準化水平。我們現在已經從帳簿中刪除了所有空中巴士租賃的飛機。所以你沒有看到租金到位。我們已經接收了我們將擁有的所有 MAX 租賃飛機，這是 13 架——我相信，去年是 13 架。所以現在這已經很正常了。你會開始從所有權的角度看到，折舊將會上升，以抵消其中的一部分，因為我們購買了很多新的 MAX 飛機，而這些飛機將開始在帳面上貶值。

And our next question will come from Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

Andrew, when I look at Alaska's network in California, it looks like the state is only about 80% recovered relative to the footprint that was there in 2019. So it looks like a pretty big revenue hole that has yet to recover. And if I'm not mistaken, I believe it accounts for about 23% of Alaska seats. So my question really is that, that part of the network were fully restored, what is the size of that revenue hole that could eventually go away, or however you can size it would be helpful.

安德魯，當我查看阿拉斯加在加州的網路時，與 2019 年的足跡相比，該州似乎只恢復了約 80%。因此，這看起來是一個相當大的收入缺口，尚未恢復。如果我沒記錯的話，我相信它約佔阿拉斯加席位的 23%。所以我的問題實際上是，網路的部分已經完全恢復，最終可能消失的收入缺口有多大，或者無論你如何調整它的大小都會有幫助。

Well, I think if I'm understanding your question, Dan, I think again, we're not going to put seats into a state where there's no demand. So your observations are absolutely correct as far as capacity, and we're down. And I think other carriers are down as well. I think what I'm still seeing here is even on tech and non-tech, and I repeat non-tech business recovery has not been as good at all versus what's happening in the Pacific Northwest.

好吧，我想如果我理解你的問題，丹，我再想一下，我們不會把席位放在沒有需求的狀態。因此，就容量而言，您的觀察是絕對正確的，我們已經失敗了。我認為其他業者也出現了下滑。我認為我在這裡仍然看到的是科技和非科技領域的情況，我再說一遍，與太平洋西北地區發生的情況相比，非科技業務的復甦根本沒有那麼好。

So we're going to -- again, we talked about the network, we're going to be very disciplined and thoughtful about how we maintain our work and where we fly our seats. But again, as we've maintained for some time, I don't think that's going to be forever, and we're going to be very prepared and in a good position as demand begins to strengthen and crawl back up that demand curve back to 2019 levels to be able to serve that demand.

因此，我們將再次討論網絡，我們將非常自律和深思熟慮地考慮如何維持我們的工作以及我們的座位。但同樣，正如我們一段時間以來所堅持的那樣，我認為這種情況不會永遠持續下去，隨著需求開始增強並沿著需求曲線爬升，我們將做好充分準備並處於有利位置到2019 年的水平才能滿足這一需求。

Yes. Understood. And then, Shane, I think I might risk of kicking a dead horse here. My question is really the same as others here, and that's just to -- really just to close the circle on the path back to low double-digit pretax margin. I think you touched on fleet commonality at $75 million. It looks like Maui annualized might be close to $80 million or so. So it looks like maybe 1.5 points to pretax margins there. or please correct me. But from where you sit, what are the biggest revenue and cost opportunities that get you where you want to be?

是的。明白了。然後，肖恩，我想我可能會冒著死馬的風險。我的問題與這裡其他人的問題實際上是一樣的，這只是為了——實際上只是為了關閉回到低兩位數稅前利潤率的道路上的循環。我認為您談到了 7500 萬美元的機隊共通點。看起來毛伊島的年化收入可能接近 8,000 萬美元左右。因此，稅前利潤率看起來可能是 1.5 個百分點。或請糾正我。但從您的立場來看，幫助您實現目標的最大收入和成本機會是什麼？

I want to underscore what Andrew said a second ago, just so we don't lose the point. One of the things I think you all should be thinking about in terms of Alaska setup is we're still in the least recovered portion of the country and still fighting for industry's best margins. So I just think there's goodness to come overall for the company. In terms of your question, yes, the cost side is really leaning out the company, getting rid of the -- not all of the buffer we've put in, but starting to work that back, getting closer to the 2019 productivity levels, I think there is opportunity to further leverage technology and automate more of what the guests do, and we're certainly going to be working on that over the next few years as I think every company is going to be doing. On the revenue side, like once we see sort of where demand normalizes, and in addition to the recovery we expect in the international demand or international domestic demand mix in the West Coast recovery and business recovery, there's a lot more that Andrew and his team are starting to think about and look at from a commercial initiative perspective.

我想強調安德魯剛才所說的話，這樣我們就不會失去重點。我認為你們所有人在阿拉斯加設置方面都應該考慮的一件事是，我們仍然處於該國恢復最差的地區，並且仍在為行業的最佳利潤而奮鬥。所以我認為公司整體上是有好處的。就你的問題而言，是的，成本方面確實是在向公司傾斜，擺脫——不是我們投入的全部緩衝，但開始恢復，越來越接近 2019 年的生產力水平，我認為有機會進一步利用技術並使客人所做的更多事情自動化，我們肯定會在未來幾年內致力於這一點，就像我認為每家公司都會做的那樣。在收入方面，就像我們看到需求正常化一樣，除了我們預期西海岸復甦和業務復甦中的國際需求或國際國內需求組合的復甦之外，安德魯和他的團隊還有更多開始從商業倡議的角度思考和看待。

They've done a great job delivering, and we don't get to talk a lot about them on the calls, but delivering on many initiatives this year, we're selling things like exit row seats now that we've not done before, a huge uptick in first class and premium class load factors while yields in those cabins are going up. that is both demand and things that the e-commerce and distribution and pricing team are doing. And there's more of those types of things that we're thinking about for the next year or 2. And we'll talk more about that as we firm plans up and include them in our guidance and/or get to an Investor Day at some point in 2024.

他們在交付方面做得很好，我們在電話中沒有太多談論他們，但今年交付了許多舉措，我們現在正在銷售諸如緊急出口排座位之類的東西，這是我們以前沒有做過的頭等艙和高級艙的載客率大幅上升，而這些客艙的收益率也在上升。這既是需求，也是電子商務、分銷和定價團隊正在做的事情。我們正在考慮未來一兩年的更多此類事情。當我們制定計劃並將其納入我們的指導和/或在某個時間舉行投資者日時，我們將更多地討論這一問題。2024 年這一點。

Thanks, Dan, and thanks, everyone, for joining us for our call. We'll see you next -- or talk to you next quarter. For those we didn't get to, our IR team will be in contact with you. Thanks, everybody.

謝謝丹，謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。我們下次再見——或者下個季度再與您交談。對於我們未能聯繫到的人，我們的 IR 團隊將與您聯繫。謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。