(WTW) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to wtwco.com from the press release and supplemental information that was issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next 3 months on WTW's website. Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law.

早上好。歡迎來到 WTW 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。請參閱今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充信息中的 wtwco.com。今天的通話正在錄音中，未來 3 個月將在 WTW 的網站上提供。今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果大不相同，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors, investors should review the forward-looking statements section of the earnings press release issued this morning as well as other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings.

有關這些和其他風險因素的更詳細討論，投資者應查看今天上午發布的收益新聞稿的前瞻性陳述部分以及最新的 10-K 表格和其他 Willis Towers Watson SEC 文件中的其他披露.

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在電話會議期間，可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。有關非 GAAP 措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的最新收益發布和其他材料。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉給 WTW 的首席執行官卡爾赫斯。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer. Our first quarter results were a great start for the year. The strong 8% organic revenue growth we delivered in the first quarter demonstrated our sustained momentum and intense focus as we continue to execute on our strategic priorities. We're particularly encouraged by the growing impact we're seeing from our recent investments in talented technology, which have strengthened the value we're able to provide our clients and yielded improved retention and new business growth.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們參加 WTW 的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官 Andrew Krasner。我們第一季度的業績是今年的一個良好開端。我們在第一季度實現了 8% 的強勁有機收入增長，表明我們在繼續執行我們的戰略重點時保持了持續的勢頭和高度關注。我們最近對人才技術的投資所帶來的影響越來越大，這讓我們感到特別鼓舞，這些投資增強了我們能夠為客戶提供的價值，並提高了保留率並促進了新業務的增長。

Operating leverage on this robust growth and the continued succession of our transformation program, drove 140 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion over the prior year, which translated into adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.84 for the quarter, an increase of 7% year-over-year.

這種強勁增長的運營槓桿和我們轉型計劃的持續延續，推動調整後的營業利潤率比上年增長 140 個基點，這轉化為本季度調整後的攤薄每股收益 2.84 美元，同比增長 7%-超過一年。

Overall, I'm very pleased with our Q1 results and with the excellent progress we've made since this time last year. We saw top line growth across all our businesses, reflecting the increased value of WTW solutions in complex economic environments. Amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation and ongoing geopolitical strife, we continue to see market dynamics that provide opportunities for WTW to respond to our clients' needs to improve outcomes and reduce risk.

總的來說，我對我們第一季度的業績以及自去年這個時候以來取得的出色進展感到非常滿意。我們看到了我們所有業務的收入增長，反映了 WTW 解決方案在復雜經濟環境中的價值增加。在金融部門動盪、高通脹和持續的地緣政治衝突中，我們繼續看到市場動態為 WTW 提供機會來響應客戶改善結果和降低風險的需求。

Now I'd like to share some additional perspective on the reset of our near and long-term expectations for free cash flow announced this morning. Our previous target for 3-year cumulative free cash flow through 2024 reflected our goal of substantially improving our free cash flow margin. This being in addition to achieving our revenue and margin targets.

現在，我想就今天上午宣布的對自由現金流的近期和長期預期進行重新設定，分享一些額外的觀點。我們之前設定的到 2024 年的 3 年累計自由現金流目標反映了我們大幅提高自由現金流利潤率的目標。這是除了實現我們的收入和利潤目標之外。

We have made timely and meaningful progress toward our goals for revenue and adjusted operating margins, and we continue to believe that our long-term free cash flow improvement opportunities remain substantial and achievable. These opportunities include optimizing structural and contractual aspects of our business, enhancing our system and processes and streamlining our working capital.

我們在實現收入目標和調整後的營業利潤率方面取得了及時而有意義的進展，我們仍然相信，我們的長期自由現金流改善機會仍然很大且可以實現。這些機會包括優化我們業務的結構和合同方面、增強我們的系統和流程以及簡化我們的營運資金。

However, we now believe that the best and most sustainable path to realizing those opportunities will take us beyond the end of 2024. As a result, over the near term, we expect free cash flow as a percentage of revenue to improve significantly from 2022's base of 8% free cash flow margin. Over the longer term, we still anticipate growth towards peers' free cash flow margins as the benefits from our improvement actions gain more traction and begin to drive a shorter conversion cycle.

然而，我們現在認為，實現這些機會的最佳和最可持續的途徑將帶我們超越 2024 年底。因此，在短期內，我們預計自由現金流佔收入的百分比將從 2022 年的基數顯著提高8% 的自由現金流保證金。從長遠來看，我們仍然預計同行的自由現金流利潤率會增長，因為我們的改進行動帶來的好處會獲得更多牽引力，並開始推動更短的轉換週期。

I want to make it very, very clear that we remain committed to delivering on our core operating results. Our achievements on those fronts so far, including our very solid start to 2023, give us confidence that we will be successful in delivering on those goals.

我想非常非常清楚地表明，我們仍然致力於實現我們的核心運營成果。迄今為止，我們在這些方面取得的成就，包括我們到 2023 年的良好開端，讓我們相信我們將成功實現這些目標。

Before turning it over to Andrew, I also want to update you on our growth, simplify and transform initiatives. Our growth initiatives take advantage of the opportunities in both core and fast-growing markets using our analytics capabilities and specialist knowledge to help create a more valuable and differentiated client experience. In Risk & Broking, our specialized approach, coupled with the strategic hires we've made over the past year have driven accelerated growth. In Health, Wealth and Career, we've had success cross-selling new solutions and products alongside our core advisory work.

在將其交給安德魯之前，我還想向您介紹我們的增長、簡化和轉型計劃的最新情況。我們的增長計劃利用我們的分析能力和專業知識，利用核心市場和快速增長市場的機會，幫助創造更有價值和差異化的客戶體驗。在風險與經紀業務方面，我們的專業方法以及我們在過去一年中進行的戰略性招聘推動了加速增長。在健康、財富和職業方面，我們在核心諮詢工作的同時交叉銷售了新的解決方案和產品，取得了成功。

Our focus on specialization has driven us to find improvements to existing solutions, new product innovation and most recently, identification and successful execution on opportunities for strategic collaboration. For example, we just announced a partnership with Zurich involving digital trading within our Broking Platform, which leverages data to structure risk to allow for a more competitive placement experience.

我們對專業化的關注促使我們尋找現有解決方案的改進、新產品創新以及最近發現並成功執行戰略合作機會。例如，我們剛剛宣布與蘇黎世建立合作夥伴關係，涉及我們經紀平台內的數字交易，該平台利用數據來構建風險，以提供更具競爭力的安置體驗。

Another example of our strategic partnerships is our new relationship with Sapiens, a leading global provider of software for the insurance industry. We have partnered with Sapiens to create integrated solutions to help insurers underwrite policies more efficiently. These are both great examples of how our innovations are driving growth by streamlining the very complex business of risk management and modernizing traditional broking while giving our customers a quicker and more efficient experience.

我們戰略合作夥伴關係的另一個例子是我們與 Sapiens 的新關係，Sapiens 是全球領先的保險業軟件供應商。我們與 Sapiens 合作創建集成解決方案，以幫助保險公司更有效地承保保單。這些都是很好的例子，說明我們的創新如何通過簡化非常複雜的風險管理業務和使傳統經紀業務現代化來推動增長，同時為我們的客戶提供更快、更高效的體驗。

A third example is our partnership with Transamerica to oversee administration and recordkeeping for our recently launched LifeSight Pooled Employer Plan in the U.S. This new product will allow employers to offer a market-leading defined contribution plan and employee experience with limited demand on their internal resources.

第三個例子是我們與 Transamerica 的合作夥伴關係，以監督我們最近在美國推出的 LifeSight Pooled Employer Plan 的管理和記錄保存。這一新產品將允許雇主提供市場領先的固定供款計劃和員工體驗，同時對內部資源的需求有限。

Shifting to our Simplify initiatives, we believe our improved sales and retention outcomes have resulted in part from our efforts to streamline the back-end shared operations of our businesses. This has enabled us to deploy a more cohesive and consistent global model that leverages our scale and provides a smoother client experience from prospect to renewal.

轉向我們的簡化計劃，我們相信我們改進的銷售和保留結果部分是由於我們努力簡化我們業務的後端共享運營。這使我們能夠部署一個更具凝聚力和一致性的全球模型，該模型利用我們的規模並提供從潛在客戶到更新的更順暢的客戶體驗。

Finally, our Transformation Program delivered $75 million of incremental annualized savings during the first quarter, consistent with the expected pacing of the $100 million in incremental run rate savings we expect to generate from the program this year. This brings the total to $224 million in cumulative annualized savings since the program's inception. We continue to search for additional opportunities for savings.

最後，我們的轉型計劃在第一季度實現了 7500 萬美元的增量年化節省，這與我們今年預計從該計劃中產生的 1 億美元增量運行率節省的預期步調一致。自該計劃啟動以來，累計年化節省總額達到 2.24 億美元。我們繼續尋找更多的節省機會。

Overall, we believe we're making progress toward our long-term organic growth, margin expansion and EPS targets. Continued execution of our strategic initiatives this quarter delivered healthy organic revenue growth, strong adjusted operating margin expansion and further savings from our Transformation Program.

總體而言，我們相信我們在實現長期有機增長、利潤率擴張和每股收益目標方面取得了進展。本季度繼續執行我們的戰略舉措帶來了健康的有機收入增長、強勁的調整後營業利潤率擴張以及我們轉型計劃的進一步節省。

In closing, I want to thank our colleagues for their performance this quarter and their unwavering dedication. We are truly appreciative of their continued commitment to our vision and the relentless focus on our strategic priorities to grow, simplify and transform.

最後，我要感謝我們的同事在本季度的表現和堅定不移的奉獻精神。我們非常感謝他們對我們願景的持續承諾，以及對我們發展、簡化和轉型的戰略重點的不懈關注。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, everyone. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our clients continue to face a host of economic challenges, including rising commercial insurance rates. However, pricing increases appear to be moderating as our fourth quarter 2022 commercial lines insurance pricing survey showed an aggregate increase of just below 5%.

謝謝，卡爾。大家，早安。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的客戶繼續面臨一系列經濟挑戰，包括不斷上漲的商業保險費率。然而，由於我們的 2022 年第四季度商業險種保險定價調查顯示總漲幅略低於 5%，因此定價漲幅似乎正在放緩。

Data for nearly all lines continue to indicate price increases with the exception of workers' compensation and directors and officers liability. The largest price increases came in commercial auto, followed by commercial property. We continue to focus on helping our clients with our specialized knowledge in Risk & Broking capabilities so they can make more informed decisions about how to best manage their risk in the current environment.

幾乎所有產品線的數據都繼續顯示價格上漲，但工傷賠償和董事及高管責任除外。價格漲幅最大的是商用汽車，其次是商業地產。我們繼續專注於利用我們在風險和經紀能力方面的專業知識幫助我們的客戶，以便他們能夠就如何在當前環境中最好地管理風險做出更明智的決策。

As Carl mentioned, we had a strong start to the year with first quarter revenue up 8% on an organic basis and solid growth across our portfolio of businesses. Our adjusted operating margin was 18.6%, a 140 basis point improvement over prior year, reflecting our growth and expense discipline, along with the benefits of our Transformation Program. The net result was adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.84, a 7% increase over the prior year.

正如 Carl 所提到的，我們今年開局強勁，第一季度收入有機增長 8%，我們的業務組合也實現了穩健增長。我們調整後的營業利潤率為 18.6%，比上年提高 140 個基點，反映了我們的增長和支出紀律，以及我們轉型計劃的好處。調整後的淨收益為 2.84 美元，比上年增長 7%。

Let's turn to our detailed segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. The health, wealth and career segment generated revenue growth of 6% on both an organic and constant currency basis compared to the first quarter of last year.

讓我們轉向詳細的細分結果。請注意，為了提供與前期的可比性，除非另有特別說明，否則所有關於我們部門業績的評論都將有機地進行。與去年第一季度相比，健康、財富和職業部門的收入在有機和固定貨幣基礎上增長了 6%。

Revenue for health increased 8% for the quarter primarily due to increased project work in North America related to helping clients implement legislative changes and managed plan costs as well as from strong growth in international with new client appointments supplemented by healthcare inflation and increases in client covered populations.

本季度健康收入增長了 8%，這主要是由於北美與幫助客戶實施立法變更和管理計劃成本相關的項目工作增加，以及國際業務的強勁增長，新客戶任命加上醫療保健通脹和客戶覆蓋範圍的增加種群。

Wealth, grew 4% in the first quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher levels of retirement work in Europe and North America, including compliance and derisking projects along with new client acquisitions. This growth was partially offset by a nominal decrease in our Investments business, which continued to be pressured by the decline in capital markets that occurred in the second half of 2022.

財富在第一季度增長了 4%。增長主要歸因於歐洲和北美更高水平的退休工作，包括合規和去風險項目以及新客戶收購。這一增長被我們投資業務的名義下降部分抵消，該業務繼續受到 2022 年下半年資本市場下滑的壓力。

Career experienced 4% growth in the quarter, driven by increased demand for advisory services and increases in data and software license sales. Benefits Delivery & Outsourcing generated 7% growth in the quarter. The increase was driven by new outsourcing clients and compliance projects plus strength in our individual marketplace with growth from higher volumes and placements of Medicare Advantage and Life policies.

在諮詢服務需求增加以及數據和軟件許可銷售增加的推動下，Career 在本季度實現了 4% 的增長。福利交付和外包在本季度產生了 7% 的增長。這一增長是由新的外包客戶和合規項目推動的，加上我們個人市場的實力以及 Medicare Advantage 和 Life 保單數量和安置的增長。

HWC's operating margin was 24% this quarter compared to 20.7% in the same prior year period. This strong margin growth was primarily due to higher operating leverage. Risk & Broking revenue was up 10% on an organic basis and 5% on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year first quarter.

HWC 本季度的營業利潤率為 24%，而去年同期為 20.7%。這種強勁的利潤率增長主要是由於較高的經營槓桿。與去年第一季度相比，風險與經紀業務收入有機增長 10%，按固定匯率計算增長 5%。

Corporate Risk & Broking had an outstanding quarter with an organic revenue increase of 10%, driven by growth across all regions and most lines of business, primarily from new business and improved retention. As we've indicated, book-of-business settlement activity has slowed after the uptick over the last 2 years with only a 1 percentage point impact on organic growth for the quarter.

Corporate Risk & Broking 本季度表現出色，收入有機增長 10%，這主要得益於所有地區和大部分業務線的增長，主要來自新業務和更高的保留率。正如我們所指出的那樣，在過去 2 年的增長之後，業務結算活動已經放緩，對本季度的有機增長僅產生 1 個百分點的影響。

Investment income was $12 million for the quarter due to higher rates and impacted organic growth for the quarter by 1 percentage point.

由於較高的利率，本季度的投資收入為 1200 萬美元，並且對該季度的有機增長產生了 1 個百分點的影響。

North America had a strong quarter due to new and renewal business and increased retention, a result of the strategic investments and initiatives that Carl highlighted earlier.

由於 Carl 之前強調的戰略投資和舉措，新業務和續約業務以及更高的保留率使北美季度表現強勁。

Europe also had solid new business performance across a number of product lines including Aerospace, Financial Solutions and Natural Resources as our focus on building and strengthening our industry and product specializations continues to deliver robust growth. International also contributed to organic growth with double-digit growth in all regions.

歐洲在多個產品線（包括航空航天、金融解決方案和自然資源）方面也取得了穩健的新業務業績，因為我們專注於建立和加強我們的行業和產品專業化，繼續實現強勁增長。國際業務也為有機增長做出了貢獻，在所有地區均實現了兩位數的增長。

In the Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 7% over the prior year period, primarily driven by increased sales and retention in Technology Solutions. R&B's operating margin was 19.9% for the first quarter compared to 21.6% in the prior year first quarter. Margin headwinds reflect the inclusion of profits up until the date of deconsolidation from our now divested Russia business in the comparable period.

在保險諮詢和技術業務中，收入比上年同期增長 7%，這主要是受技術解決方案銷售額和保留率增長的推動。 R&B 第一季度的營業利潤率為 19.9%，而去年第一季度為 21.6%。利潤率逆風反映了我們在可比期間從我們現已剝離的俄羅斯業務中剝離截至合併之日的利潤。

Absent this headwind, margins improved as a result of organic revenue growth in CRB and transformation savings, gain on sale and interest income, partially offset by the run rate impact of 2022 strategic investment hires. As we expected, last year's key hires have begun to contribute to our performance in a meaningful way as exemplified by the solid organic growth this quarter, and we continue to expect a ramp-up in production this year.

在沒有這種逆風的情況下，由於 CRB 的有機收入增長和轉型儲蓄、銷售收益和利息收入，利潤率有所提高，部分被 2022 年戰略投資招聘的運行率影響所抵消。正如我們預期的那樣，去年的主要招聘已經開始以有意義的方式為我們的業績做出貢獻，本季度穩健的有機增長就是例證，我們繼續預計今年的產量會增加。

Now let's turn to the enterprise level results. We generated profitable growth this quarter with our adjusted operating margin increasing 140 basis points to 18.6% from 17.2% in the prior year. This improvement reflects the benefits of higher operating leverage from the increased top line growth and transformation-related savings, which we expect to continue to be a key contributor to our ongoing margin expansion and the attainment of our 2024 margin goals.

現在讓我們轉向企業級結果。本季度我們實現了盈利增長，調整後的營業利潤率從去年同期的 17.2% 增長 140 個基點至 18.6%。這一改善反映了更高的運營槓桿從增加的收入增長和與轉型相關的節省中受益，我們預計這將繼續成為我們持續的利潤率擴張和實現 2024 年利潤率目標的關鍵因素。

Please note that the margin tailwind created by interest income and book-of-business settlement activity was offset by the margin headwind from the divestiture of our highly-profitable Russia business, whose results were included in the prior year up until the date of deconsolidation.

請注意，利息收入和業務賬簿結算活動產生的利潤率順風被剝離我們高利潤的俄羅斯業務帶來的利潤逆風所抵消，該業務的結果包含在上一年直至取消合併之日。

Foreign currency was a headwind on adjusted EPS of $0.06 for the first quarter, largely due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Assuming today's rates continue for the remainder of the year, we expect a foreign currency headwind on adjusted earnings per share of $0.05. Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 19.5% versus 27.5% in the prior year.

外匯對第一季度調整後每股收益 0.06 美元不利，這主要是由於美元走強。假設今天的利率在今年餘下時間繼續，我們預計調整後每股收益將面臨 0.05 美元的外匯逆風。我們本季度的美國公認會計原則稅率為 19.5%，而去年同期為 27.5%。

Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 20.5% compared to 21.1% in the prior year. The current quarter adjusted tax rate is lower primarily due to the favorable impact of discrete items in the current year. The adjusted tax rate for the full year may increase moderately as a result of the U.K. corporate tax rate increase which became effective on April 1.

我們本季度的調整後稅率為 20.5%，而去年同期為 21.1%。本季度調整後的稅率較低主要是由於本年度離散項目的有利影響。受 4 月 1 日生效的英國企業稅率上調的影響，全年調整後的稅率可能會適度上升。

Our strong balance sheet gives us continued confidence in our ability to execute a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances capital return to shareholders with internal investments in strategic M&A to deploy our capital in the highest return opportunities.

我們強大的資產負債表使我們繼續相信我們有能力執行有紀律的資本分配戰略，平衡股東的資本回報與戰略併購的內部投資，以將我們的資本用於獲得最高回報的機會。

During the quarter, we paid $87 million in dividends and repurchased approximately 432,000 shares for $104 million. We continue to view share repurchases as an attractive use of capital. We generated free cash flow of $92 million for the first quarter of 2023 compared to free cash flow of negative $10 million in the prior year.

本季度，我們支付了 8700 萬美元的股息，並以 1.04 億美元回購了大約 432000 股股票。我們繼續將股票回購視為一種有吸引力的資本使用方式。我們在 2023 年第一季度產生了 9200 萬美元的自由現金流，而上一年的自由現金流為負 1000 萬美元。

The $102 million year-over-year improvement in free cash flow was primarily driven by more favorable working capital improvements resulting mostly from higher cash collections and lower discretionary compensation payments made in the current year quarter as compared to the prior year quarter.

自由現金流同比增長 1.02 億美元，這主要是由於營運資本的改善更為有利，這主要是由於與去年同期相比，本年度季度的現金回收率更高，酌情支付的薪酬更低。

Our Q1 results are reflective of the progress we've made since the beginning of 2022. We've come a long way stabilizing the business, rebuilding our talent base, strengthening our organic revenue growth and accelerating the Transformation Program to drive greater profitability in the future. We're committed to delivering the same success with free cash flow generation.

我們的第一季度業績反映了我們自 2022 年初以來取得的進展。我們在穩定業務、重建人才基礎、加強有機收入增長和加快轉型計劃以推動更大盈利能力方面取得了長足進步未來。我們致力於通過產生自由現金流來取得同樣的成功。

Though our actions on free cash flow have not yet yielded results within the time frame we expected, we remain focused in the near term on driving meaningful improvement in our free cash flow margin for 2022's base of 8% free cash flow margin, and in the longer term, making continual progress and moving more towards peer levels.

儘管我們在自由現金流方面的行動尚未在我們預期的時間範圍內產生結果，但我們在短期內仍專注於推動我們的自由現金流利潤率顯著改善，以實現 2022 年 8% 的自由現金流利潤率，並在從長遠來看，不斷取得進步並更多地向同行水平邁進。

As free cash flow generation remains a high priority, we've made enhancements to our original improvement plans to strengthen our organizational focus on cash flow. As you may have seen in our proxy statement, we have added free cash flow as a KPI for annual incentives in the executive compensation program and are working on implementing cash flow-linked KPIs for others in the organization to drive broader accountability across the company.

由於自由現金流的產生仍然是重中之重，我們對最初的改進計劃進行了改進，以加強我們對現金流的組織關注。正如您可能在我們的代理聲明中看到的那樣，我們已將自由現金流作為高管薪酬計劃中年度激勵的 KPI，並正在努力為組織中的其他人實施與現金流相關的 KPI，以在整個公司範圍內推動更廣泛的問責制。

In addition, we are focused on pursuing long-term structural and contractual improvements to the cash aspects of how our businesses operate. As you might expect, this is the area where we have the largest class of opportunity to improve, but those opportunities are the most time consuming to realize.

此外，我們專注於對我們業務運營方式的現金方面進行長期結構和合同改進。正如您所料，這是我們有最多改進機會的領域，但實現這些機會最耗時。

As a reminder, full year 2023 pension income is expected to be about $112 million. If this level of pension income remains consistent in 2024, it would pose a significant headwind to our 2024 adjusted EPS target. Pension income, which is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, is remeasured at year-end. Accordingly, we will provide additional guidance on our 2024 pension income expectations and the resulting impact to the adjusted EPS target when we release Q4 2023 earnings results.

提醒一下，2023 年全年養老金收入預計約為 1.12 億美元。如果這一養老金收入水平在 2024 年保持穩定，將對我們 2024 年調整後的每股收益目標構成重大阻力。對宏觀經濟狀況敏感的養老金收入在年底重新計算。因此，我們將在發布 2023 年第四季度收益結果時，就 2024 年養老金收入預期以及由此對調整後的每股收益目標產生的影響提供額外指導。

Overall, we are excited by the strong start to 2023 with business performance ramping up as expected, and the benefits of our investments in talent and technology starting to meaningfully contribute to results. In addition, our successful transformation efforts and operating leverage have allowed us to continue to drive margin expansion. We have made consistent progress in our commitments for organic revenue growth and increased operating margins and EPS.

總的來說，我們對 2023 年的強勁開局感到興奮，業務表現如預期般上升，我們對人才和技術的投資開始對結果做出有意義的貢獻。此外，我們成功的轉型努力和經營槓桿使我們能夠繼續推動利潤率的增長。我們在實現有機收入增長以及提高營業利潤率和每股收益的承諾方面取得了持續進展。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我們打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question today comes from C. Gregory Peters of Raymond James.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 C. Gregory Peters。

Carl and Andrew, I guess let's kick off the Q&A with the organic in Risk & Broking seems to be accelerating. And looking over your comments in the slide deck, at the same time, we're seeing some compression on operating margin. So I guess as I think about that, maybe comment on where we are in the hiring cycle or reinvestment cycle of talent and how you think about organic. I know you don't really like to guide quarterly, but it seems like there's quarterly sequential improvement. How are you thinking about it for the balance of the year?

Carl 和 Andrew，我想讓我們開始問答吧，Risk & Broking 中的有機部分似乎正在加速。同時查看您在幻燈片中的評論，我們看到營業利潤率有所壓縮。所以我想，當我想到這一點時，也許可以評論一下我們在招聘週期或人才再投資週期中所處的位置，以及你對有機的看法。我知道你真的不喜歡每季度進行一次指導，但似乎每季度都有一個連續的改進。您如何考慮今年餘下時間的情況？

Sure, Greg. So I mean, we're actually very pleased, right, with the progress we've made in terms of the revenue acceleration in Risk & Broking, and that's -- while there is some rate pressure, specifically in financial lines and in our M&A business, where just simply economic activity in terms of merchant acquisition has declined and that has an effect.

當然，格雷格。所以我的意思是，我們實際上對我們在風險與經紀收入加速方面取得的進展感到非常高興，那就是 - 雖然存在一些利率壓力，特別是在金融領域和我們的併購領域商業，在商業收購方面的簡單經濟活動已經下降並且產生了影響。

We're actually really pleased with the momentum across the portfolio. We're growing particularly in our global lines, and we continue to grow across all geographies. We do see the momentum building up the hires we've made since the last part of '21 going into '22.

實際上，我們對整個投資組合的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。我們的增長尤其體現在我們的全球線路上，並且我們將繼續在所有地區實現增長。我們確實看到了自 21 年末進入 22 年以來我們招聘的勢頭。

These people continue to contribute, and we're seeing momentum build up in what they're bringing to revenue and the bottom line, and we anticipate that to be a helpful accelerate during the rest of the year. In addition, the results in Insurance Consulting and Technology, driven by software sales are encouraging. This is sort of recurring revenue helps build a base that continues to be a strong performer for us.

這些人繼續做出貢獻，我們看到他們為收入和底線帶來的動力正在增強，我們預計這將在今年餘下的時間裡起到有益的加速作用。此外，在軟件銷售的推動下，保險諮詢和技術的業績令人鼓舞。這是一種經常性收入，有助於建立一個繼續成為我們強大表現者的基礎。

The environment for our services remains one where we have a lot of optimism regarding that. These are -- we are able to help clients with their risk management and risk mitigation strategies across a variety of macroeconomic conditions. So I think we're pretty well poised for the year ahead. We continue to look for good talent in the business.

我們的服務環境仍然是一個我們對此非常樂觀的環境。這些是 - 我們能夠幫助客戶在各種宏觀經濟條件下進行風險管理和風險緩解策略。所以我認為我們已經為來年做好了準備。我們繼續在業務中尋找優秀的人才。

As I've said before, right, we'll never stop that. But I think we've actually largely reloaded across the portfolio in terms of not having significant major gaps in what we're able to deliver to the marketplace. And that's been one of the reasons that the results are what they are.

正如我之前所說，對，我們永遠不會阻止它。但我認為，就我們能夠向市場提供的產品沒有重大差距而言，我們實際上已經在很大程度上重新加載了整個產品組合。這就是結果之所以如此的原因之一。

Greg, it's Andrew. I think just one other thing to think about as it relates to organic growth in Risk & Broking and across the enterprise as well as that in Q2 of last year, there were $45 million of book sales. So we just want to be thoughtful about that going forward as it relates to organic growth. And I think, you also had a question around margin as well within the segment for the quarter.

格雷格，是安德魯。我認為還有一件事需要考慮，因為它與風險與經紀業務和整個企業的有機增長以及去年第二季度的有機增長有關，圖書銷售額為 4500 萬美元。因此，我們只想考慮與有機增長相關的未來發展。而且我認為，您在本季度的細分市場中也對利潤率有疑問。

So Risk & Broking had a margin decrease of 170 basis points. And excluding interest income of $12 million and bookings of $7 million, the margin decrease was about 310 basis points. However, interest income and book gains were more than offset by a $37 million operating income headwind from the deconsolidation of the Russia business, which happened in the first quarter of last year, and that component equated to a 340 basis point margin headwind. So absent that, some growth there in margin.

因此，Risk & Broking 的利潤率下降了 170 個基點。不包括 1200 萬美元的利息收入和 700 萬美元的預訂，利潤率下降約 310 個基點。然而，利息收入和賬面收益被去年第一季度發生的俄羅斯業務拆分帶來的 3700 萬美元營業收入逆風所抵消，這相當於 340 個基點的利潤率逆風。因此，如果沒有，利潤率會有一些增長。

I just want to follow up on the margin headwinds. It feels like that we shouldn't be seeing these type of headwinds as we move through the year. Is there any point in time where you think you'll hit that inflection where the hiring will -- the normalized hiring will reflect in the margin results. Clearly, Russia is now over with after first quarter. But just trying to see how you guys are thinking about the cadence of margins this year.

我只想跟進保證金逆風。感覺我們在這一年中不應該看到這些類型的逆風。是否有任何時間點你認為你會在招聘的地方遇到這種拐點——正常化的招聘將反映在利潤率結果中。顯然，俄羅斯現在已經結束了第一季度。但只是想看看你們是如何看待今年利潤率的節奏的。

Yes. As you know, we don't give margin guidance by segment. But with regard to the full year, we're excited about the trajectory for margin growth within Risk & Broking. As you know, we ensure -- to ensure we maximize our future growth potential, and as Carl mentioned, right, started making some meaningful investments in the revenue-producing talent and we're now beginning to see those results from those investments to come through, and we expect that momentum to continue.

是的。如您所知，我們不會按細分市場提供利潤率指導。但就全年而言，我們對風險與經紀業務的利潤增長軌跡感到興奮。如您所知，我們確保 - 確保我們最大限度地發揮未來的增長潛力，正如卡爾所說，對，開始對創收人才進行一些有意義的投資，我們現在開始看到這些投資帶來的結果通過，我們預計這種勢頭將繼續下去。

So that combined with the efficiencies created for transformation, we have confidence in the continued acceleration of margin improvement in that business over time.

因此，結合為轉型創造的效率，我們有信心隨著時間的推移繼續加速該業務的利潤率提高。

It makes sense. I guess the other question, I'll pivot to the free cash flow revision. And as part of your 2024 guidance, and I know you slipped in a comment about EPS in Russia and the other headwinds there, but -- or pension excuse me. But on free cash flow, can you talk about how the free cash flow update might affect your ability to buy stock back in the future? And maybe just give us an updated view on that.

這說得通。我想另一個問題是，我將轉向自由現金流量修訂。作為您 2024 年指導的一部分，我知道您對俄羅斯的 EPS 和那裡的其他不利因素發表了評論，但是 - 或養老金對不起。但是關於自由現金流，你能談談自由現金流更新如何影響你未來回購股票的能力嗎？也許只是給我們一個更新的觀點。

Yes, sure. We think about share repurchases as one of the investment opportunities that we have, utilizing free cash flow. So of course, we balance the share repurchase activity across other organic and inorganic investments. And we monitor that continuously along with the rest of the capital structure. So we feel pretty good about our ability to continue to reinvest in share repurchases, if that's the right reinvestment decision from the free cash flow.

是的，當然。我們將股票回購視為我們擁有的利用自由現金流的投資機會之一。因此，當然，我們會在其他有機和無機投資之間平衡股票回購活動。我們與資本結構的其他部分一起持續監控這一點。因此，如果這是自由現金流的正確再投資決定，我們對我們繼續對股票回購進行再投資的能力感到非常滿意。

And just a point on the free cash flow guidance. Is there any unusual headwinds outside of restructuring that might hit '23 that weren't in '22?

只是關於自由現金流量指導的一點。在重組之外是否有任何不尋常的不利因素可能會影響 23 年而不是 22 年？

Outside of transformation, nothing that we're currently anticipating or aware of.

除了轉型之外，我們目前沒有任何預期或意識到的事情。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question comes from Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I'm sorry, I want to beat on the free cash flow change. Could you really just kind of hone in a little bit more on what changed in the last 3 months that changed the -- your thoughts? It just wasn't clear to me. I apologize if it's just me, exactly what changed in the environment that changed your view on it?

對不起，我想擊敗自由現金流量的變化。您真的可以稍微多了解一下過去 3 個月發生的變化，這些變化改變了您的想法嗎？我只是不清楚。如果只有我一個人，我很抱歉，究竟是什麼改變了環境改變了你對它的看法？

Yes. Paul, it's Andrew. So we previously believed that there were headwinds in risk to overcome. There were also multiple potential paths open to us to meet our free cash flow target by the end of 2024. As you know, different circumstances in paths can produce very different cash flow results. And since February, we've updated our assessment of the various circumstances around free cash flow, including the progress of free cash flow improvement efforts, updated economic and financial market conditions, currency movements, business-specific dynamics and the expected level of transformation spend.

是的。保羅，是安德魯。因此，我們之前認為存在需要克服的風險逆風。我們還有多種潛在途徑可以在 2024 年底之前實現我們的自由現金流目標。如您所知，途徑中的不同情況會產生截然不同的現金流結果。自 2 月以來，我們更新了對自由現金流各種情況的評估，包括自由現金流改善工作的進展、最新的經濟和金融市場狀況、貨幣走勢、特定業務的動態以及轉型支出的預期水平.

And based on those recent assessments, we believe the potential path to achieving the prior target by the end of 2024 have narrowed. And therefore, we updated our target for future free cash flow to reflect our view that while we believe we'll make continual progress in improving free cash flow conversion. It's just likely to take us beyond the end of 2024 to realize the full opportunities that we see.

根據最近的評估，我們認為到 2024 年底實現先前目標的潛在路徑已經縮小。因此，我們更新了未來自由現金流的目標，以反映我們的觀點，即我們相信我們將在改善自由現金流轉換方面不斷取得進展。它很可能會讓我們在 2024 年底之後才能實現我們所看到的全部機會。

We've come a long way in stabilizing the business, rebuilding our talent base, strengthening organic revenue growth and accelerating the Transformation Program to drive greater profitability. And we're still committed to delivering the same success with free cash flow generation. And while we would have liked to have made more progress on it to date, it's just taking longer to achieve than some of the other financial goals.

我們在穩定業務、重建人才基礎、加強有機收入增長和加速轉型計劃以提高盈利能力方面取得了長足進步。我們仍然致力於通過產生自由現金流來取得同樣的成功。雖然我們希望迄今為止在這方面取得更多進展，但它只是比其他一些財務目標需要更長的時間才能實現。

Similarly to the EPS goal, I mean, I would have thought that the best estimate of 2024's pension revenue would be this year's revenue. And I think, consensus is reflecting some view that, that goal is going to be difficult to achieve. Why not just sort of rip the Band-Aid off and lower that expectations (inaudible) the EPS?

與 EPS 目標類似，我的意思是，我本以為對 2024 年養老金收入的最佳估計是今年的收入。我認為，共識反映了一些觀點，即該目標將難以實現。為什麼不只是撕掉創可貼並降低 EPS 的預期（聽不清）？

Yes. So we'll not know our expectations for pension income for 2024 until the end of 2023 when we perform our valuation and expect to provide relevant updates at that time. We're calling out the challenge presented by the pension income dynamics, something we've talked about before and which has continued its pension income remains pressured through 2023.

是的。因此，我們要到 2023 年底進行估值時才能知道我們對 2024 年養老金收入的預期，並希望屆時提供相關更新。我們提出了養老金收入動態帶來的挑戰，這是我們之前討論過的問題，並且其養老金收入在 2023 年之前仍然面臨壓力。

And if that dynamic continues in 2024, it will be meaningfully harder to reach our existing target and if pension income rebounded to where it had been in the past. And having said that, we remain focused on driving the organic growth, operating leverage and cost savings to achieve our long-term EPS target to help offset that headwind.

如果這種動態在 2024 年繼續下去，那麼實現我們現有的目標將變得更加困難，而且如果養老金收入反彈到過去的水平。話雖如此，我們仍然專注於推動有機增長、經營槓桿和成本節約，以實現我們的長期每股收益目標，以幫助抵消這一不利因素。

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question since you guys are calling out the pension income and then obviously, we have the free cash flow update. Does that mean that you took another look, I guess, at the '24 guidance? And that you have confidence in the other components of the financial plan, your revenue target and margin goals? And so the only, I guess, component that there's concern about is pension income?

我的第一個問題，因為你們正在公佈養老金收入，然後很明顯，我們有自由現金流更新。我猜，這是否意味著您又看了一眼 24 年指南？您對財務計劃的其他組成部分、您的收入目標和利潤目標有信心嗎？所以，我猜，唯一值得關注的部分是養老金收入？

Elyse, I think we're making great progress on our revenue goals and our margin goals. And things that we can control, we are driving through the organization and driving hard, and we're very happy with the progress we've made to date. The reason we call out the pensions is that's driven by external interest rates and capital market returns. And despite having a market-leading investment business, those aren't things we can control.

Elyse，我認為我們在收入目標和利潤目標方面取得了很大進展。我們可以控制的事情，我們正在推動整個組織並努力推動，我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們取消養老金的原因是，這是由外部利率和資本市場回報率驅動的。儘管擁有市場領先的投資業務，但這些都不是我們可以控制的。

And then my second question goes back to the R&B margin. And I know you did call out some book-of-business gains last Q2, but you also get the benefit, right, that the investment income -- higher investment income that can come through this Q2. But I just want to understand the comments.

然後我的第二個問題回到 R&B 邊緣。而且我知道你確實在上個第二季度提到了一些業務收益，但你也獲得了投資收益的好處——第二季度可以帶來更高的投資收益。但我只想了解評論。

So it sounds like if we neutralize for Russia, fiduciary investment income and book gains, right? Maybe you would have got a little bit of margin improvement within R&B. So if that's the case, I think it's around 30 basis points, would you expect to at least see that 30 basis points of improvement from here? I'm just particularly concerned with the leverage within R&B, especially if you're able to continue to report high single-digit organic revenue growth in the segment?

所以聽起來如果我們中和俄羅斯的信託投資收入和帳面收益，對嗎？也許你會在 R&B 中獲得一點利潤率改善。所以如果是這樣的話，我認為大約是 30 個基點，你是否期望至少從這裡看到 30 個基點的改進？我只是特別關心 R&B 內部的槓桿作用，特別是如果你能夠繼續報告該部門的高個位數有機收入增長？

Yes, Elyse, and your math there is spot on. As I said earlier, we don't guide on segment margins. but we do expect that the margin trajectory to continue on a path, but it will be -- could be choppy quarter-to-quarter, and we do have the potential headwind from the book sales from last year, weighing on margin in Q2, for example. But over the long term, we're still very confident about the margin acceleration in that business.

是的，愛麗絲，你的數學很準確。正如我之前所說，我們不指導部門利潤率。但我們確實預計利潤率軌跡將繼續保持不變，但它會 - 可能會逐季波動，而且我們確實面臨去年圖書銷售的潛在逆風，影響第二季度的利潤率，例如。但從長遠來看，我們仍然對該業務的利潤率加速增長充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

Maybe thinking about the organic revenue growth. You target mid-single digit following 8% this quarter. And hence it strikes me that there could be materially more upside. I mean I think your net hiring in risk and brokerage just by our calculation was up 7% year-over-year, maybe even more Health, Wealth and Career is 4.5%.

也許考慮有機收入增長。您的目標是本季度達到 8% 之後的中等個位數。因此，令我印象深刻的是，可能會有更多實質性的上漲空間。我的意思是，我認為僅根據我們的計算，您在風險和經紀業務方面的淨招聘人數同比增長了 7%，健康、財富和職業方面的增長率可能更高，為 4.5%。

And I guess that, you have a book-of-business headwind of $45 million in the second quarter. But you also had 1.5 point benefit this quarter from interest income and that should persist through the year. You've got inflation, which is helping drive up organic revenues, we saw a big number from a competitor of yours. So the question is, is that mid-single-digit guidance around organic revenue growth? Is the bias for potential on the upside to that? Or what should we be thinking about?

我猜想，第二季度您的業務逆風為 4500 萬美元。但是本季度您還從利息收入中獲得了 1.5 個百分點的收益，並且這種收益應該會持續到全年。你有通貨膨脹，這有助於提高有機收入，我們從你的競爭對手那裡看到了很多。所以問題是，圍繞有機收入增長的中等個位數指導是什麼？對潛力的偏見是否高於此？或者我們應該思考什麼？

Yes. Andrew, I mean, we're obviously pretty pleased with our progress this quarter, and we do expect healthy growth for the rest of the year. There is a lot of economic uncertainty out there. But despite the uncertainty, there's continued strong demand for our services across the portfolio.

是的。安德魯，我的意思是，我們顯然對本季度的進展感到非常滿意，我們確實預計今年剩餘時間會健康增長。那裡有很多經濟不確定性。但是，儘管存在不確定性，但對我們整個產品組合的服務的需求依然強勁。

Yes, it is early in the year, right? So we are not adjusting our mid-single-digit organic expectations at this time. But you're right, the momentum in the business does look favorable. So -- and we -- that's one of the reasons we remain confident in our longer-term goals, closing the revenue gap with peers and continue to get to our long target, right? The strategic hiring we've made, the initiatives we talked about at the beginning of the call, all that's playing into the revenue momentum in the portfolio.

是的，現在是年初，對吧？因此，我們目前不會調整我們的中個位數有機預期。但你是對的，業務發展勢頭看起來確實不錯。所以 - 我們 - 這是我們對我們的長期目標保持信心的原因之一，縮小與同行的收入差距並繼續實現我們的長期目標，對吧？我們所做的戰略性招聘，我們在電話會議開始時談到的舉措，所有這些都在影響投資組合的收入勢頭。

Got it. And then second question, just moving back to the free cash flow in the quarter of $92 million. But by our expectation, we were thinking maybe it will come in somewhere between $300 million and $400 million. And just kind of hoping you could unpack what those pieces were that kind of came off course? Because last quarter, despite a pressured free cash flow number, you seemed optimistic that you could still get into that 3-year figure of $4.3 billion to $5.3 billion.

知道了。然後是第二個問題，回到本季度 9200 萬美元的自由現金流。但按照我們的預期，我們認為它可能會在 3 億到 4 億美元之間。只是希望你能解開那些偏離軌道的東西？因為上個季度，儘管自由現金流數字承壓，但您似乎樂觀地認為您仍然可以實現 43 億美元至 53 億美元的 3 年數字。

You figured there were ways to kind of maneuver to that. And now we're looking at $92 million this quarter. And I'm wondering, a, how did it get this low? What were the key pieces? And two, how do you get -- now that you've kind of tossed the $4.3 billion to $5.3 billion. And what seemed like a good -- forget the margins, it seems like you could just get to $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion a year. Is that something we could think about in 2025? Is that a real goal? And I'll stop there.

你認為有一些方法可以解決這個問題。現在我們正在尋找本季度的 9200 萬美元。我想知道，a，它是怎麼變得這麼低的？關鍵部分是什麼？第二，你是怎麼得到的——既然你已經把 43 億美元扔到了 53 億美元。看起來不錯的是——忘記利潤率吧，看起來你每年可以達到 16 億美元、17 億美元。這是我們可以在 2025 年考慮的事情嗎？這是一個真正的目標嗎？我就到此為止。

Yes, sure. So let me take that in 2 parts. So I think, first, just on the quarter free cash flow, I think, this is the first time in a number of years where the free cash flow in the first quarter has been a positive number. It is typically a negative number just given it is when discretionary compensation payments are made. So we feel very good about the free cash flow number for the first quarter of $92 million.

是的，當然。所以讓我把它分成兩部分。所以我認為，首先，就季度自由現金流而言，我認為，這是多年來第一季度的自由現金流首次為正數。它通常是一個負數，只是因為它是在進行酌情補償支付時。因此，我們對第一季度 9200 萬美元的自由現金流數字感到非常滿意。

For the sort of long-term sort of view, which I think is what you were getting at around free cash flow generation, we think we've provided sort of a balanced view, right? A very short and longer-term guidance, we recognize that we have work to do in pursuit of our long-term free cash flow margin goal. And we're confident that the areas we identified will help us make sustainable improvements. And over that long term, we do expect to see continual improvement in free cash flow margin towards peer levels.

對於那種長期的觀點，我認為這是你在自由現金流產生方面得到的，我們認為我們提供了一種平衡的觀點，對吧？一個非常短期和長期的指導，我們認識到我們有工作要做，以追求我們的長期自由現金流保證金目標。我們相信，我們確定的領域將幫助我們做出可持續的改進。從長遠來看，我們確實希望看到自由現金流利潤率持續向同行水平改善。

Okay. So that kind of $4.3 billion to $5.3 billion, if you kind of annualize it by '25, do you think you can be in that kind of peer zone with that kind of annualized experience? Or is it still too early?

好的。所以那種 43 億美元到 53 億美元，如果你在 25 歲之前將它年化，你認為你可以在那種具有年化經驗的同行區嗎？還是現在還為時過早？

I think it's a bit early, but where we're focused on is continual improvement from where we are today and making sure that we work our way towards peer averages over the long term.

我認為現在有點早，但我們關注的重點是從今天開始不斷改進，並確保我們在長期內努力達到同行平均水平。

Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

So pension income, any thoughts about the potential to close out some of the pension plans if that's a possibility to take advantage of higher rates. Some of your peers have taken some structural actions and charges over the last many years to kind of minimize that volatility? Or does that just not make sense from an economic perspective?

所以養老金收入，如果有可能利用更高的利率，任何關於關閉一些養老金計劃的可能性的想法。在過去的多年裡，您的一些同行採取了一些結構性行動和收費來最大限度地減少這種波動？還是從經濟角度來看這沒有意義？

Our pension design is actually pretty immune. The open plan of the U.S., right, is the one where you design changes might do anything. And that's one where we've actually made design changes over prior years to reduce a lot of the volatility associated with a traditional defined benefit design.

我們的養老金設計實際上是相當免疫的。美國的開放式計劃，對，是您設計更改可能會做任何事情的計劃。這就是我們實際上對前幾年進行設計更改的地方，以減少與傳統固定福利設計相關的大量波動。

Our big plan in the U.K. is basically doesn't have accruals for people anymore. So design changes wouldn't do anything there. And the investment strategy we run against these plans is designed to largely preserve the funded status of the plan despite capital market interest rate fluctuations.

我們在英國的大計劃基本上不再為人們提供應計費用。所以設計更改不會在那裡做任何事情。我們針對這些計劃制定的投資策略旨在在資本市場利率波動的情況下很大程度上保持計劃的融資狀態。

And actually, if you look at the pension footnote, you'll see that those strategies did exactly what they were supposed to do during last year. So we're pretty happy with how we manage the plans for stability.

事實上，如果你看一下養老金的腳註，你會發現這些策略在去年確實做了他們應該做的事情。所以我們對我們如何管理穩定性計劃感到非常滿意。

Okay. That's clear. Okay. Last question, just very good results in Health, Wealth and Career. Just curious, with a 1% GDP backdrop in 1Q, were results surprising to you? One of your peers recently said on their earnings call that they feel that some of the services they provide are currently deemed to be a little less discretionary than they've been in prior decades in kind of as the company sort out this post-pandemic world. Any thoughts there?

好的。這很清楚。好的。最後一個問題，在健康、財富和職業方面取得了非常好的結果。只是好奇，在第一季度 GDP 增長 1% 的背景下，結果是否令您感到意外？您的一位同行最近在他們的財報電話會議上表示，他們認為他們提供的某些服務目前被認為比過去幾十年更少自由裁量權，因為公司正在整理這個大流行後世界.有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. We'll speak to the peers, but I think the team has done a great job over the years of positioning us for growth under all sorts of different conditions. And I do think that the relevance of the services we offer is as high as it's ever been, right? I mean there is demand in our wealth business for pension risk management solutions that are indeed a bit more feasible under current economic conditions for pension plan sponsors.

是的。我們會與同行交談，但我認為團隊多年來在為我們在各種不同條件下的增長定位方面做得很好。我確實認為我們提供的服務的相關性與以往一樣高，對嗎？我的意思是，我們的財富業務需要養老金風險管理解決方案，在當前的經濟條件下，對於養老金計劃發起人來說，這些解決方案確實更可行。

There has been strong demand for our health business, project activity due to legislative changes in North America and our continued expansion of our client base and helping our clients deal with healthcare inflation and the effect on their costs.

由於北美的立法變化以及我們不斷擴大的客戶群以及幫助我們的客戶應對醫療保健通脹及其對成本的影響，對我們的健康業務、項目活動的需求強勁。

And in our career business, where over the years, we've taken strong steps to make sure that there's less of an emphasis on discretionary project work and more on software recurring revenue continues to grow and our -- the software licensing that we're doing in that business has been a substantial part of that.

在我們的職業生涯中，多年來，我們採取了強有力的措施，以確保減少對可自由支配的項目工作的重視，而更多地關注軟件經常性收入的持續增長，以及我們的軟件許可。從事該業務是其中的重要組成部分。

So yes, we're quite happy. And I guess, I'd point out, generally, employers are still struggling with the new ways of working and what the advice we can help to help them cope with sort of the new normal in terms and sort of the fact that despite any potential recessionary cause, employment levels still remain very high. I do remain optimistic about the demand for our services in that area.

所以是的，我們很高興。而且我想，我想指出，總體而言，雇主仍在為新的工作方式而苦苦掙扎，以及我們可以提供哪些建議來幫助他們應對新常態的條款和事實，儘管有任何潛在的由於經濟衰退，就業水平仍然很高。我對我們在該領域的服務需求仍然持樂觀態度。

Our next call comes from Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個電話來自高盛的羅伯特考克斯。

Mr. Cox? All right, we seem to have lost Mr. Cox.

考克斯先生？好吧，我們好像失去了考克斯先生。

We'll move on to our next question comes from David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

我們將繼續討論下一個來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 的問題。

So I wanted to just ask on the free cash flow and I just wanted to get a better sense of some milestones that we can track from the 8% margin in 2022. In the disclosure, you said that or you mentioned the absence of onetime headwinds that will help you improve free cash flow meaningfully this year and that's obviously offset by the cost to achieve for the Transformation Program. But these onetime headwinds that you're saying should help you improve or the absence of these onetime headwinds that should help you improve free cash flow. Could you size those for us?

所以我只想問問自由現金流，我只是想更好地了解我們可以從 2022 年 8% 的利潤率追踪到的一些里程碑。在披露中，你說過或者你提到沒有一次性逆風這將幫助您今年有意義地改善自由現金流，而這顯然被實現轉型計劃的成本所抵消。但是，您所說的這些一次性逆風應該可以幫助您改善，或者沒有這些一次性逆風可以幫助您改善自由現金流。你能幫我們尺寸嗎？

Yes. And I think, this is some of the detail, it's Andrew, that we had shared previously, so we can definitely go through that again and provide some additional insight there. So if you recall there were about $200 million of headwinds from FX-related derivative payments, there was about $200 million of headwinds from tax-related timing payments and also about $100 million of incremental onetime discretionary compensation payments that we had discussed.

是的。我認為，這是我們之前分享過的一些細節，是安德魯，所以我們絕對可以再次討論並提供一些額外的見解。因此，如果您還記得與外匯相關的衍生品支付有大約 2 億美元的逆風，與稅收相關的定時支付有大約 2 億美元的逆風，以及我們討論過的增量一次性酌情補償支付有大約 1 億美元的逆風。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks for laying those out for me. I somehow missed that. So -- and I guess, and then the timing of the Transformation Program, I think there's still overall $536 million of cost to achieve that will happen over the next couple of years. Is it safe to assume that pretty equal spreading that out over the next couple of years?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝你為我安排這些。我不知何故錯過了。所以——我想，然後是轉型計劃的時間安排，我認為在未來幾年內，實現這一目標的總成本仍有 5.36 億美元。可以安全地假設在接下來的幾年中將其平均分配嗎？

Yes. I think that's fair. It does move around a bit quarter-by-quarter and year-by-year when it hits the cash flow statement. But yes, I think that's a safe assumption for now.

是的。我認為這很公平。當它觸及現金流量表時，它確實會逐季和逐年移動。但是，是的，我認為目前這是一個安全的假設。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

Mr. Kinar?

基納爾先生？

All right, well, we can move on to our next question, which comes from Mark Marcon. Mr. Marcon is with Baird.

好吧，好吧，我們可以繼續下一個問題，這個問題來自 Mark Marcon。 Marcon 先生和 Baird 在一起。

So on Health, Wealth and Careers, good -- really good margin improvement. Can you elaborate a little bit on some of the key drivers there? And then I know careers, the discretionary element has been reduced. But we're starting to see some signs of cyclical slowing in some components of the economy. Are you seeing any evidence of you're still remaining discretionary elements being pressured at all? And how should we think about that with regards to the margins going forward?

因此，在健康、財富和職業方面，利潤率的提高非常好。您能否詳細說明其中的一些關鍵驅動因素？然後我知道職業，自由裁量因素已經減少。但我們開始看到經濟的某些組成部分出現週期性放緩的跡象。您是否看到任何證據表明您仍然在對自由裁量權施加壓力？我們應該如何考慮未來的利潤率？

Yes, it's Andrew. Thanks for the questions. On the first part, regarding HWC's margin progress, I think there's really 2 components that you see there. One is the operating leverage just inherent in the business and, two, the impact of transformation savings more visible in the bottom line.

是的，是安德魯。感謝您的提問。在第一部分，關於 HWC 的利潤率進展，我認為你在那裡看到的確實有兩個組成部分。一是業務固有的運營槓桿，二是轉型節省的影響在底線中更為明顯。

With respect to career, right? I mean you start peeling back the hood and look at the mix of services we have there, right? I mean, the demand for executive compensation services remains strong, and we believe that it will remain strong, pretty much regardless of economic conditions. For work in rewards, in general, as I sort of talked about in the prior question, right, we do see continued demand for people to sort of deal with how the new ways of working affect compensation programs and benchmarking.

關於職業，對嗎？我的意思是你開始揭開面紗，看看我們在那裡提供的服務組合，對吧？我的意思是，對高管薪酬服務的需求依然強勁，我們相信無論經濟狀況如何，它都將保持強勁。對於獎勵工作，一般來說，正如我在前面的問題中談到的那樣，我們確實看到人們持續需要處理新的工作方式如何影響薪酬計劃和基準測試。

And we've taken steps over the years, right, to be able to offer more of this as a software basis than discretionary consulting projects, which helps with the stability. And then we've taken quite an initiative over the last few years to embed employee experience into all aspects of how we deliver services across the health, wealth and career and that's actually led to some substantial revenue momentum and demand for our employee portal software offering. So we think that the business is far more resilient than it had been in times past.

多年來，我們已經採取措施，能夠提供更多的軟件基礎，而不是隨意的諮詢項目，這有助於穩定性。然後，在過去幾年裡，我們採取了相當大的舉措，將員工體驗融入到我們如何提供健康、財富和職業服務的各個方面，這實際上為我們的員工門戶軟件產品帶來了可觀的收入動力和需求.因此，我們認為該業務比過去更具彈性。

That's great. And then obviously, there's been all sorts of questions about the free cash flow target moving a little bit. And you mentioned specifically changing the KPIs to emphasize from a behavioral perspective, addressing some of the things that could accelerate free cash flow conversion. How long do you think it would take to get there?

那太棒了。然後很明顯，關於自由現金流量目標有一點移動，存在各種各樣的問題。你提到具體改變 KPI 以強調從行為的角度，解決一些可以加速自由現金流轉換的事情。你認為到達那裡需要多長時間？

Like -- everybody's been asking, does this mean '25 or '26 when we get to peer levels. While we've got the public call going, is there a way to just say here are the specific things that we're doing and here's when we think would be a reasonable time period to accomplish that or a conservative time period to accomplish it?

就像——每個人都在問，當我們達到同等水平時，這意味著 25 歲還是 26 歲。雖然我們已經進行了公開電話會議，但有沒有一種方法可以說這是我們正在做的具體事情，以及我們認為什麼時候是完成該任務的合理時間段或一個保守的時間段？

Yes. And I can go through some of the buckets of initiatives that we are focused on but don't want to sort of get into specific timing because we are much focused on continual improvement in that area. So first is strengthening the organizational focus on free cash flow. You had mentioned the KPI for annual incentives, things of that nature.

是的。我可以通過一些我們關注的舉措，但不想進入具體時間，因為我們非常關注該領域的持續改進。因此，首先是加強對自由現金流的組織關注。您提到了年度激勵的 KPI，諸如此類。

The second category is around working capital improvement opportunities across all of our businesses. So we do currently see substantial opportunities across receivables, payables and some of the other key working capital accounts.

第二類是圍繞我們所有業務的營運資本改善機會。因此，我們目前確實在應收賬款、應付賬款和其他一些關鍵營運資金賬戶中看到了大量機會。

And the third area is around optimizing the cash generation profile of our business portfolio. And that is, as you might expect, one of the largest classes of opportunities, but also the most time consuming to realize.

第三個領域是圍繞優化我們業務組合的現金生成情況。正如您所料，這是最大的機會類別之一，但也是最耗時的。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

So I'll just start with continuing, I guess, I have the line of questions on free cash flow. So I think, you mentioned that you expect the near-term meaningful improvement from 2022's margin of 8%. Do you also expect near-term improvement to 2022's free cash flow margin if we were to adjust back the onetime drags?

所以我會開始繼續，我想，我有一系列關於自由現金流的問題。所以我認為，您提到您預計 2022 年 8% 的利潤率將在短期內出現有意義的改善。如果我們要調整曾經的阻力，您是否還預計 2022 年的自由現金流利潤率在短期內會有所改善？

You do have to think about the transformation spend as part of that. But we do expect to continue to make progress on that metric over time. There may be some volatility inherent in that. But over the longer term, we do expect continual progress on that metric.

您必須將轉型支出視為其中的一部分。但我們確實希望隨著時間的推移繼續在該指標上取得進展。這可能存在一些固有的波動性。但從長遠來看，我們確實預計該指標會持續取得進展。

Okay. And then with regards to the pension income and the potential drag to 2024 EPS guidance. Can you maybe tell us what pension income levels or range were contemplated when the initial guidance was offered?

好的。然後是關於養老金收入和對 2024 年 EPS 指導的潛在拖累。您能否告訴我們在提供初步指導時考慮的養老金收入水平或範圍是多少？

The initial guidance looked at a variety of different economic scenarios. So I don't think it was any one particular scenario for what was going on with...

最初的指南著眼於各種不同的經濟情景。所以我不認為這是發生的事情的任何一個特定場景......

And I think, what's changed was just the rapid, right, the pace of the movement in rates and capital returns that factored into that. But it was originally set back in 2021. And if you go back over the average of 7 years or so of investment of pension income, it was well north of $250 million. So I think, just the macro environment changed which drove sort of the big change in the pension income.

而且我認為，發生變化的只是利率和資本回報率變化的快速、正確的步伐，這也是其中的一個因素。但它最初是在 2021 年推遲的。如果你回顧 7 年左右的平均養老金收入投資，它遠遠超過 2.5 億美元。所以我認為，只是宏觀環境的變化推動了養老金收入的巨大變化。

Our next question comes from Charlie Lederer of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Charlie Lederer。

Just looking at some of the drivers of strength in global lines over the last year or so, can you pack if there are -- or unpack if there are any particular lines that you're more excited about going forward? And I guess in aerospace, specifically, can you talk about whether you're gaining share or more benefiting from a favorable environment?

看看過去一年左右全球線路的一些實力驅動因素，如果有的話，你能打包嗎？我想在航空航天領域，具體來說，你能談談你是在獲得份額還是從有利的環境中受益更多？

We're very happy with the progress across all global lines. I did call out Phoenix where we've got particular challenges, not particular to us. But I think looking at anyone who's got a similar footprint, you're going to find the same thing as the combination of rate and sector activity in M&A. But the results are actually quite strong across the portfolio. I'm not going to dive into particular concentrated areas, right, such as Aerospace, but we're very happy with the performance of our teams, and I think, we have great momentum going forward.

我們對所有全球線路的進展感到非常高興。我確實召集了鳳凰城，在那裡我們遇到了特殊的挑戰，而不是對我們來說特別的挑戰。但我認為，看看任何有類似足蹟的人，你會發現與併購中利率和行業活動的結合相同的東西。但整個投資組合的結果實際上非常強勁。我不會深入到特定的集中領域，對吧，比如航空航天，但我們對我們團隊的表現非常滿意，而且我認為，我們有很大的前進勢頭。

Okay. And then I guess, can you provide any color on TRANZACT performance in the quarter? And then wondering if you have a view on CMS' new Medicare marketing rules and whether that could have an impact going forward.

好的。然後我想，您能否提供有關本季度 TRANZACT 性能的任何顏色？然後想知道您是否對 CMS 的新 Medicare 營銷規則有看法，以及這是否會對未來產生影響。

So we're quite happy with TRANZACT performance for the quarter, and we see -- we expect continued growth for TRANZACT this year. We do view the issuance of the recent CMS regulations as a manageable event.

因此，我們對本季度的 TRANZACT 表現非常滿意，我們看到 - 我們預計今年 TRANZACT 將繼續增長。我們確實將最近 CMS 法規的發布視為可管理的事件。

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields of Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

我們的下一個問題來自 Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods 的 Meyer Shields。

I was hoping -- pardon me, to get some color on where you see the needs for hiring now? Is it maintenance? Are there still some of the gaps that we saw in the aftermath of elevated attrition, I was hoping you could talk us through that.

我希望 - 對不起，了解一下您現在認為招聘需求的地方？是維護嗎？在人員流失率上升之後，我們是否仍然存在一些差距，我希望您能與我們談談。

I'm sorry, we seem to have an issue with the line, you'll hold for just one moment.

抱歉，我們的線路似乎有問題，請稍等片刻。

I think we're back now, operator. So the -- we have -- I think I'd put it this way, right? We don't have major gaps anymore, Meyer, the way we did in late '21, '22. The teams have done a great job of bringing in talent across the organization. And that shows up an improved retention rates in the portfolio and some of the revenue acceleration we've seen in new business. So we're quite happy with where we are. As I said earlier, right, we'll always be on the lookout for good talent. So this is a people business and good talent is how you continue to grow this business. But we're happy with our human capital situation right now.

我想我們現在回來了，接線員。所以——我們有——我想我會這樣說，對吧？邁耶，我們不再有重大差距，就像我們在 21 世紀末、22 世紀末所做的那樣。這些團隊在為整個組織引進人才方面做得很好。這表明投資組合的保留率有所提高，並且我們在新業務中看到了一些收入加速增長。所以我們對我們所處的位置很滿意。正如我之前所說，對，我們會一直在尋找優秀的人才。因此，這是一項以人為本的業務，優秀的人才是您繼續發展這項業務的方式。但我們對目前的人力資本狀況感到滿意。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. Second question, does the revised free cash flow outlook impact your M&A potential strategy?

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，修改後的自由現金流前景是否會影響您的併購潛在戰略？

It's Andrew. I think we're very comfortable with our capital position and the capital structure and the embedded financial flexibility that we have there to be able to take advantage of opportunities that come our way. So no concern from our perspective there whatsoever.

是安德魯。我認為我們對我們的資本狀況和資本結構以及我們所擁有的嵌入式財務靈活性非常滿意，我們能夠利用我們遇到的機會。因此，從我們的角度來看，沒有任何問題。

And our next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

On the wealth business, if we do see interest rates decline in coming quarters, how does that impact the pension project work? Maybe refresh me on that?

在財富業務方面，如果我們確實看到未來幾個季度利率下降，這將如何影響養老金項目的運作？也許讓我重新振作起來？

So the wealth business has 2 components, right? We've got our retirement consulting business which is largely recurring work, right, valuations are pension plans, et cetera. And then we have project work various sorts, including pension risk transfer. The market right now for pension risk transfer with funded status approved in pension plans across most major economies is a good one.

所以財富業務有兩個組成部分，對嗎？我們的退休諮詢業務主要是重複性工作，對，估值是養老金計劃等。然後我們有各種項目工作，包括養老金風險轉移。目前大多數主要經濟體的養老金計劃中批准的養老金風險轉移市場是一個很好的市場。

And should rates decline, depending what sort of -- if equity markets rise in response to a rate decline, you probably wouldn't see deterioration in funded positions, which leaves pension risk transfer opportunities just as attractive for plan sponsors. But a lot of what we do is not just the actual transaction itself, but helping people monitor these conditions and determine whether other activities such as bulk lump sums might be attractive.

如果利率下降，取決於哪種情況——如果股市因利率下降而上漲，你可能不會看到融資頭寸惡化，這使得養老金風險轉移機會對計劃發起人同樣具有吸引力。但我們所做的很多事情不僅僅是實際交易本身，而是幫助人們監控這些條件並確定其他活動（如大宗一次性付款）是否具有吸引力。

So we do anticipate continued demand in this particular area. I would point out that if you saw less demand for pension risk transfer, that's less assets leaving our investments business. So we've got a bit of a hedge in the portfolio there.

因此，我們確實預計這一特定領域的需求會持續增長。我要指出的是，如果您看到對養老金風險轉移的需求減少，那麼離開我們投資業務的資產就會減少。所以我們在那裡的投資組合中有一些對沖。

And thank you, everyone, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude our program, and you may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。這確實結束了我們的程序，您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。