Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to wtw.com for the press release and supplemental information that was issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next 3 months on WTW website.

早上好。歡迎來到 WTW 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。有關今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充信息，請參閱 wtw.com。今天的通話正在錄音中，未來 3 個月將在 WTW 網站上提供。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today in the company and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements. One moment. Thank you.

今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。實際結果可能與公司今天討論的結果大不相同，公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。一瞬間。謝謝。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed in today's company and undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For more details discussed of these and other risk factors, Investors should review the forward-looking statements section in the earnings press release issued this morning as well as other disclosures in most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings.

今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。實際結果可能與今天公司討論的結果大不相同，除非法律要求，否則不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。有關這些和其他風險因素的更多詳細信息，投資者應查看今天上午發布的收益新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述部分以及最近的 10-K 表格和其他 Willis Towers Watson SEC 文件中的其他披露。

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在電話會議期間，可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。有關非 GAAP 措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的最新收益發布和其他材料。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉給 WTW 首席執行官 Carl Hess。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer. In 2022, we focused on executing against our growth, simplify and transform strategic priorities, continuing to bring the best of WTW to our clients and generating value for our shareholders. I'm proud to say that we delivered on all of these commitments. Today, we are stronger, more resilient and better positioned than we were a year ago, and I'm excited about what we will achieve going forward.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們參加 WTW 的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官 Andrew Krasner。 2022 年，我們專注於執行我們的增長，簡化和轉變戰略重點，繼續為我們的客戶帶來最好的 WTW 並為我們的股東創造價值。我很自豪地說，我們兌現了所有這些承諾。今天，我們比一年前更強大、更有彈性、定位更好，我對我們未來將取得的成就感到興奮。

Our fourth quarter performance reflects the momentum we've been building and is a solid finish to a great year. In Q4, we delivered 5% organic growth which brought our full year organic growth to 4%, in line with the mid-single-digit forecast for 2022. We also saw a modest margin expansion, despite significant headwinds from prior year book of business settlement activity, which is expected to normalize going forward. We generated adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.33, up 12% over the prior year fourth quarter. We also continued to execute against our capital allocation strategy completing another $440 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter, bringing our full year total to $3.5 billion.

我們第四季度的業績反映了我們一直在建立的勢頭，並且是對偉大一年的堅實收尾。在第四季度，我們實現了 5% 的有機增長，使我們的全年有機增長達到 4%，與 2022 年的中個位數預測一致。儘管上一年的業務存在重大阻力，但我們的利潤率也出現了適度增長結算活動，預計將在未來正常化。我們產生的調整後攤薄每股收益為 6.33 美元，比去年第四季度增長 12%。我們還繼續執行我們的資本配置策略，在第四季度完成了另外 4.4 億美元的股票回購，使我們的全年總額達到 35 億美元。

Our transformation efforts continue to have a significant impact. During the fourth quarter, we realized $49 million of incremental annualized savings. This brings the total to $149 million in cumulative annualized savings since the program's inception and positions us well to achieve our 2024 target of $360 million. In advancing our simplified goals, we further refined our organizational structure by consolidating our Asia and Australasia operations into one Asia Pacific region. This streamlined unit will be better able to leverage shared resources and to seamlessly serve clients in the region. Simon Weaver, who is previously the head of AustralAsia will lead the new integrated region and be responsible for driving growth through closer collaboration across the business.

我們的轉型努力繼續產生重大影響。在第四季度，我們實現了 4900 萬美元的增量年化節省。這使自該計劃啟動以來的累計年度節省總額達到 1.49 億美元，並使我們能夠很好地實現 2024 年 3.6 億美元的目標。為了推進我們簡化的目標，我們通過將我們的亞洲和大洋洲業務整合到一個亞太地區，進一步完善了我們的組織結構。這個經過精簡的部門將能夠更好地利用共享資源並無縫地為該地區的客戶提供服務。此前擔任澳亞負責人的西蒙·韋弗 (Simon Weaver) 將領導新的綜合區域，並負責通過更緊密的跨業務合作來推動增長。

For our grow initiatives, we remain focused on driving better outcomes for our clients through our innovative and differentiated offerings. Most recently, we launched a customized online platform for the aviation sector which gives our clients access to WTW's expertise across the globe, 24/7. Tailored to the unique challenges and needs of the sector, this platform allows airline and aviation-related clients to share technical expertise, news and insights, strengthening the breadth and depth of our client and industry relationships. We also advanced our grow initiatives with the recent introduction of WTW's collaboration with Liberty Specialty Markets and Markel. Together, we launched the pilot phase of an innotive digital commercial insurance platform. This is a significant step forward in our broader strategy to transform our digital capabilities across the entire value chain. The venture will improve connectivity, giving brokers efficient, flexible trading options.

對於我們的增長計劃，我們仍然專注於通過我們的創新和差異化產品為我們的客戶帶來更好的結果。最近，我們為航空業推出了一個定制的在線平台，讓我們的客戶能夠在全球範圍內全天候 24/7 獲得 WTW 的專業知識。該平台針對該行業的獨特挑戰和需求量身定制，允許航空公司和航空相關客戶分享技術專長、新聞和見解，加強我們與客戶和行業關係的廣度和深度。我們還通過最近引入 WTW 與 Liberty Specialty Markets 和 Markel 的合作來推進我們的增長計劃。我們共同啟動了創新數字商業保險平台的試點階段。這是我們在整個價值鏈中轉變數字能力的更廣泛戰略向前邁出的重要一步。該合資企業將改善連通性，為經紀商提供高效、靈活的交易選擇。

Elsewhere within Risk and Broking, the ongoing rollout of our industry specialization strategy in CRB is producing great results with our global lines of business driving high single-digit organic growth. We're also excited by the traction our growing initiatives have gained within Health wealth and Career. Our focus on making connections across our businesses produced meaningful benefits in the fourth quarter with a noteworthy portion of our discretionary project sales referred by other businesses.

在風險與經紀業務的其他方面，我們在 CRB 不斷推出的行業專業化戰略正在取得巨大成果，我們的全球業務線推動了高個位數的有機增長。我們也對我們不斷增長的舉措在健康財富和職業領域獲得的牽引力感到興奮。我們專注於在我們的業務之間建立聯繫，在第四季度產生了有意義的收益，其中很大一部分由其他業務推薦的全權委託項目銷售。

In 2022, we made significant investments in rebuilding our talent base. WTW hired over 9,700 colleagues last year, demonstrating the appeal of WTW as a destination for talent. Our investment has translated into revenue growth in 2022, and we expect this to continue throughout 2023. We also saw the benefit of our retention efforts with voluntary attrition remaining in line with macro trends. As a result, WTW finished the year with 46,600 colleagues around the globe, an increase that has restored our headcount to 2019 levels despite the divestitures made since that time.

2022 年，我們在重建人才庫方面進行了大量投資。 WTW 去年僱傭了 9,700 多名同事，展示了 WTW 作為人才目的地的吸引力。我們的投資已轉化為 2022 年的收入增長，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。我們還看到了我們留住員工的好處，自願離職與宏觀趨勢保持一致。結果，WTW 在今年結束時在全球擁有 46,600 名同事，這一增長使我們的員工人數恢復到 2019 年的水平，儘管自那時以來進行了資產剝離。

Overall, I'm pleased with our fourth quarter performance. The progress we have made to date, executing our strategic priorities to grow, simplify and transform gives us confidence that WTW is on the right path to drive sustainable growth and value creation.

總的來說，我對我們第四季度的表現感到滿意。我們迄今取得的進展，執行我們的戰略重點以發展、簡化和轉型，使我們相信 WTW 正走在推動可持續增長和價值創造的正確道路上。

In the year ahead, we're focused on further accelerating our growth, driving greater operating leverage and prioritizing cash generation. The current complex economic environment supports our ambitions. Our clients are facing many uncertainties, including inflation, rising interest rates, softer GDP growth, a tight labor market, ESG risk and potential recession. The regulatory focus on pensions in an uncertain economic environment is also heightened. As we've seen historically, such volatility can create strong demand for specialist work and products that our unique combination of businesses provide. I'm pleased with our ability to help clients evaluate their risks and opportunities in these complex environments.

在未來的一年裡，我們將專注於進一步加速我們的增長，推動更高的運營槓桿和優先考慮現金產生。當前複雜的經濟環境支持我們的雄心壯志。我們的客戶面臨著許多不確定性，包括通貨膨脹、利率上升、GDP 增長放緩、勞動力市場緊張、ESG 風險和潛在的經濟衰退。在不確定的經濟環境中，對養老金的監管重點也有所提高。正如我們從歷史上看到的那樣，這種波動會對我們獨特的業務組合提供的專業工作和產品產生強烈需求。我很高興我們有能力幫助客戶評估他們在這些複雜環境中的風險和機遇。

For example, recent market dynamics have provided defined benefit plan sponsors for the increased funding levels, which in turn has created flexibility to explore a range of potential alternatives including modifications to investment strategies as well as pension risk transfer options. We've seen a significant increase in pension risk transfer projects, many of which evolved over multiple years and require a high degree of specialization. In addition, we're seeing increased interest in clients reviewing their nonqualified benefits as well as investigating programs to manage their workforces, additional areas in which we are ideally placed to help.

例如，最近的市場動態為增加的資金水平提供了固定福利計劃贊助商，這反過來又創造了探索一系列潛在替代方案的靈活性，包括修改投資策略以及養老金風險轉移選項。我們已經看到養老金風險轉移項目顯著增加，其中許多項目經過多年發展，需要高度專業化。此外，我們看到客戶越來越有興趣審查他們不合格的福利以及調查管理他們的勞動力的計劃，這是我們最適合提供幫助的其他領域。

Many of our clients also continue to navigate sustained rising commercial insurance rates. Across various lines, insurers are pushing for premium increases. This causes even greater challenges for our clients as they try to manage complex risks. We're well positioned to help clients through this difficult rate environment. Our customized tools ensure that clients get the best return for their premium dollar across their entire portfolio of risks. We call this Connected Risk Intelligence and believe it represents the future of financially efficient insurance buying. At the same time, we continue to build momentum.

我們的許多客戶還繼續應對持續上漲的商業保險費率。在各個方面，保險公司都在推動保費上漲。這給我們的客戶帶來了更大的挑戰，因為他們試圖管理複雜的風險。我們有能力幫助客戶度過這個艱難的利率環境。我們的定制工具可確保客戶在其整個風險組合中獲得最佳的保費回報。我們將其稱為 Connected Risk Intelligence，並相信它代表了財務高效保險購買的未來。與此同時，我們繼續建立勢頭。

Our recent hires are becoming more productive. We're getting faster, more agile and better connected and our transformation program is delivering. We see continued demand from clients seeking our solutions to manage their unique challenges, which strengthens our conviction in achieving mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2023. We expect to deliver another year of operating margin expansion led by an incremental $100 million in annualized transformation program cost savings and improved free cash flow. Andrew will share more details on our outlook for the year, but in short, we're driving hard to achieve our long-term targets.

我們最近的僱員變得更有效率。我們變得更快、更敏捷、聯繫更緊密，我們的轉型計劃正在交付。我們看到客戶不斷尋求我們的解決方案來應對他們獨特的挑戰，這增強了我們在 2023 年實現中等個位數有機收入增長的信念。我們預計將在每年增加 1 億美元的帶動下實現又一年的營業利潤率增長轉型計劃成本節約和自由現金流改善。安德魯將分享更多關於我們今年展望的細節，但簡而言之，我們正在努力實現我們的長期目標。

In closing, our performance in 2022 demonstrated our focus on delivering on our commitments and our pursuit of profitable, sustainable growth. We believe that robust client demand in the face of a complex risk environment and the successful execution of our strategy will continue to drive momentum and we remain focused on achieving our goals and creating shareholder value.

最後，我們在 2022 年的表現表明我們專注於兌現我們的承諾以及我們對盈利、可持續增長的追求。我們相信，面對複雜的風險環境，強勁的客戶需求和我們戰略的成功執行將繼續推動勢頭，我們將繼續專注於實現我們的目標和創造股東價值。

Last, but certainly not least, I want to thank our colleagues for their performance this year. I sincerely appreciate their dedication, service and continued commitment to our clients. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

最後但同樣重要的是，我要感謝我們的同事們今年的表現。我衷心感謝他們的奉獻精神、服務和對客戶的持續承諾。有了這個，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, everyone. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. As Carl mentioned, we finished the year on a high note and our outlook for 2023 is positive. Now I'd like to share some further details on our financial results.

謝謝，卡爾。大家，早安。感謝大家今天加入我們。正如卡爾所說，我們以高調結束了這一年，我們對 2023 年的展望是積極的。現在我想分享一些關於我們財務業績的更多細節。

The fourth quarter was in line with our expectations, with revenue up 5% on an organic basis. For the year, organic revenue growth was 4%, and we had solid growth across our portfolio of businesses. For the quarter, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $6.33, an increase of 12% over the prior year. For the year, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $13.41, representing 16% growth over the prior year.

第四季度符合我們的預期，收入有機增長 5%。今年，有機收入增長率為 4%，我們的業務組合實現了穩健增長。本季度調整後的攤薄每股收益為 6.33 美元，比上年增長 12%。全年，調整後的攤薄每股收益為 13.41 美元，比上年增長 16%。

Now on to our detailed segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. The health, wealth and career or HWC segment generated revenue growth of 5% on an organic and constant currency basis compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding the year-over-year headwind from book of business settlement activity, HWC's organic revenue grew 6%.

現在來看我們詳細的細分結果。請注意，為了提供與前期的可比性，除非另有特別說明，否則所有關於我們部門業績的評論都將有機地進行。與去年第四季度相比，健康、財富和職業或 HWC 部門在有機和固定貨幣基礎上產生了 5% 的收入增長。排除業務結算活動帶來的同比逆風，HWC 的有機收入增長了 6%。

Revenue for health was flat for the fourth quarter primarily due to a strong comparative arising from book gains in the prior year. Excluding this activity, health revenue grew 6%, primarily driven by portfolio growth and new client appointments in Europe and international as well as increased project work in North America related to helping clients manage increasing costs and implementing legislative changes.

第四季度醫療保健收入持平，這主要是由於去年的賬面收益帶來的強勁對比。不包括這項活動，健康收入增長了 6%，這主要是由於歐洲和國際的投資組合增長和新客戶任命以及北美與幫助客戶管理不斷增加的成本和實施立法變革相關的項目工作增加。

Wealth grew 5% in the fourth quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher levels of project work actuarial valuation activity and new administration clients in North America and a combination of regulatory and settlement work in Great Britain. This growth was partially offset by a nominal decrease in our Investments business, which was pressured by declines in capital markets, an expected headwind we mentioned during our third quarter earnings call. The Wealth business finished the year with a strong fourth quarter, offsetting declines experienced earlier in 2022.

第四季度財富增長了 5%。增長主要歸因於更高水平的項目工作精算估值活動和北美的新管理客戶以及英國的監管和結算工作。這一增長被我們投資業務的名義下降部分抵消，該業務受到資本市場下滑的壓力，這是我們在第三季度財報電話會議上提到的預期不利因素。財富業務以強勁的第四季度結束了這一年，抵消了 2022 年初的下滑。

Career experienced 9% growth in the fourth quarter. This growth was largely driven by strong client demand for talent and compensation products, including compensation benchmarking surveys and advisory work, as well as employee engagement offerings, which we expect to continue this year. Benefits Delivery and Outsourcing generated 6% revenue growth in the fourth quarter. The increase was largely driven by individual marketplace, with strong growth from higher volumes and placements in Medicare Advantage policies. As expected, TRANZACT delivered double-digit growth in its seasonally strongest quarter and for the full year. Driven by a supportive macro environment and our focus on profitably growing the business.

事業在第四季度經歷了 9% 的增長。這一增長主要是由客戶對人才和薪酬產品的強勁需求推動的，包括薪酬基準調查和諮詢工作，以及我們預計今年將繼續提供的員工敬業度產品。福利交付和外包業務在第四季度產生了 6% 的收入增長。這一增長主要是由個人市場推動的，Medicare Advantage 保單數量和安置量的增加帶來了強勁增長。正如預期的那樣，TRANZACT 在其季節性最強的季度和全年實現了兩位數的增長。在有利的宏觀環境和我們專注於業務盈利增長的推動下。

Technology and Administrative Solutions revenue also increased primarily due to new client appointments and increased project activity. We continue to see growth opportunities for these businesses and expect that they will continue their growth trajectory into 2023. HWC's operating margin was 39% for the third quarter compared to 38.2% in the prior year fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of book of business activity, HWC's operating margin was 39% compared to 37.6% in the prior year fourth quarter.

技術和行政解決方案收入也有所增長，這主要是由於新客戶的任命和項目活動的增加。我們繼續看到這些業務的增長機會，並預計它們將在 2023 年繼續保持增長軌跡。HWC 第三季度的營業利潤率為 39%，而去年第四季度為 38.2%。排除業務活動賬面的影響，HWC 的營業利潤率為 39%，而去年第四季度為 37.6%。

For the full year, HWC's operating margin was 26.1% compared to 25.6% in the prior year. The 50 basis point improvement was due to improved operating leverage and transformation-related savings. Risk and Broking revenue was up 5% on an organic basis and 3% on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year fourth quarter. Excluding the headwind from book of business settlement activity, R&D's organic revenue increased 6%. Corporate Risk & Broking or CRB, organic revenue increased 3%. Excluding book of business settlement activity, CRB's organic revenue growth was 5%. The business generated growth across all regions, driven by new business wins in construction, natural resources and aerospace. Excluding headwinds from prior year book of business settlements, North America revenue increased with notable growth in construction. Europe and international also made strong contributions to CRB's growth with new business in construction and aerospace.

全年，HWC 的營業利潤率為 26.1%，而上一年為 25.6%。 50 個基點的改善是由於運營槓桿的改善和與轉型相關的節省。與去年第四季度相比，風險和經紀業務收入有機增長 5%，按固定匯率計算增長 3%。剔除業務結算活動帶來的不利影響，R&D 的有機收入增長了 6%。 Corporate Risk & Broking 或 CRB，有機收入增長 3%。不包括業務結算活動賬簿，CRB 的有機收入增長為 5%。在建築、自然資源和航空航天領域贏得新業務的推動下，該業務在所有地區都實現了增長。排除前一年業務結算賬簿的不利因素，北美收入隨著建築業的顯著增長而增長。歐洲和國際也通過在建築和航空航天領域的新業務為 CRB 的增長做出了巨大貢獻。

In the Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 17% over the prior year fourth quarter, benefiting from the timing of software sales, which had originally been expected earlier in the year as well as increased advisory work. For the year, ICT delivered strong growth of 9%, in line with our long-term expectations for this business. R&D's operating margin was 28.3% for the quarter compared to 30.1% in the prior year fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of book of business activity, RMB's operating margin was 27.6% for the quarter compared to 28.3% in the prior year fourth quarter. For the full year, RMB's operating margin was 21.2% compared to 23.4% in the prior year. The decline in margin was due to our significant investments in talent. We expect these investments to continue to gain momentum in 2023 as the contributions of these hires become more meaningful.

在保險諮詢和技術業務方面，收入比上年第四季度增長 17%，這得益於軟件銷售的時機（最初預計在今年早些時候）以及諮詢工作的增加。今年，ICT 實現了 9% 的強勁增長，符合我們對該業務的長期預期。 R&D 本季度的營業利潤率為 28.3%，而去年第四季度為 30.1%。排除業務活動賬面的影響，本季度人民幣的營業利潤率為 27.6%，而去年第四季度為 28.3%。全年，RMB 的營業利潤率為 21.2%，而去年同期為 23.4%。利潤率的下降是由於我們對人才的大量投資。隨著這些員工的貢獻變得更有意義，我們預計這些投資將在 2023 年繼續獲得動力。

Now let's turn to the enterprise level results. Adjusted operating income was $882 million for the quarter with 32% of revenue, a 20 basis point improvement over the prior year. For the year, adjusted operating margin was 20.9%, a 100 basis point improvement over the prior year. Our improved adjusted operating margins primarily reflect the benefits of strategic portfolio management which were realized at the corporate level, alongside transformation program savings, which were realized at the segment level, but in some of our businesses were more than offset by our increased investments in talent during the period.

現在讓我們轉向企業級結果。本季度調整後營業收入為 8.82 億美元，佔收入的 32%，比上年提高 20 個基點。全年，調整後的營業利潤率為 20.9%，比上年提高 100 個基點。我們提高的調整後營業利潤率主要反映了在公司層面實現的戰略投資組合管理的好處，以及在部門層面實現的轉型計劃節省，但在我們的一些業務中，我們增加的人才投資遠遠抵消了期間。

As Carl mentioned, during the fourth quarter, we realized $49 million of incremental annualized savings. Transformation savings will continue to be a key aspect of our ongoing margin expansion efforts as we're encouraged by the results this year, which exceeded both our original $30 million target for 2022 and our most recent forecast of $110 million for the year. To date, our transformation savings have outpaced our original expectations from a timing perspective, driven primarily by accelerated workforce savings, technology savings from migrating operations to the cloud and reductions in our overall real estate footprint.

正如 Carl 所提到的，在第四季度，我們實現了 4900 萬美元的增量年化節省。轉型節省將繼續成為我們正在進行的利潤擴張努力的一個關鍵方面，因為我們對今年的結果感到鼓舞，這超過了我們最初 2022 年 3000 萬美元的目標和我們最近預測的 1.1 億美元。迄今為止，從時間的角度來看，我們的轉型節省已經超過了我們最初的預期，這主要是由於加速節省勞動力、從將運營遷移到雲中節省的技術以及我們整體房地產足蹟的減少。

For 2023, we expect our transformation program to deliver approximately $100 million in incremental run rate savings by the end of the year with continued contributions from real estate, technology and process optimization. Foreign currency was a headwind on adjusted EPS of $0.25 for the year, largely due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect foreign currency to be a $0.06 headwind in Q1 of 2023, but only a $0.01 headwind for the full year. We generated free cash flow of $674 million for 2022 compared to free cash flow of $1.9 billion in 2021. This decrease was primarily due to the receipt of the $1 billion termination fee in the comparable period and the absence of cash generation from the divested treaty reinsurance business.

到 2023 年，我們預計我們的轉型計劃將在年底前實現約 1 億美元的增量運行率節省，同時來自房地產、技術和流程優化的持續貢獻。外匯對全年調整後每股收益 0.25 美元不利，這主要是由於美元走強。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計 2023 年第一季度外幣將帶來 0.06 美元的逆風，但全年只會帶來 0.01 美元的逆風。我們在 2022 年產生了 6.74 億美元的自由現金流，而 2021 年的自由現金流為 19 億美元。這一減少主要是由於在可比期間收到了 10 億美元的終止費，以及剝離的條約再保險沒有產生現金商業。

Looking ahead, growing earnings and generating healthy free cash flow remain our priorities. Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the fourth quarter was 17.7% versus 20.8% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 22.2% versus 21.1% in the prior year, with the difference primarily due to the geographic distribution of profits. For the year, our U.S. GAAP tax rate was 15.4% versus 19.9% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate for the full year was 20.9%, more in line with the 20.7% rate in the prior year.

展望未來，增加收益和產生健康的自由現金流仍然是我們的首要任務。我們第四季度的美國公認會計原則稅率為 17.7%，而去年同期為 20.8%。我們本季度的調整後稅率為 22.2%，而去年同期為 21.1%，差異主要是由於利潤的地理分佈。今年，我們的美國公認會計原則稅率為 15.4%，而上一年為 19.9%。我們調整後的全年稅率為 20.9%，與上一年的 20.7% 的稅率相符。

In 2022, we returned a significant amount of capital to our shareholders, paying $369 million in dividends and repurchasing 15.7 million shares for $3.5 billion. We will continue to pursue a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances capital return with internal investments and strategic M&A to deploy our capital in the highest return opportunities. While we expect share repurchases to remain the primary avenue for capital deployment, we continue to evaluate all our options to create value for shareholders.

2022 年，我們向股東返還了大量資本，支付了 3.69 億美元的股息，並以 35 億美元的價格回購了 1570 萬股股票。我們將繼續奉行嚴謹的資本配置策略，在資本回報與內部投資和戰略併購之間取得平衡，將我們的資本部署在回報率最高的機會中。雖然我們預計股票回購仍將是資本配置的主要途徑，但我們會繼續評估我們為股東創造價值的所有選擇。

Turning to our 2023 guidance. Based on current market conditions, we expect to deliver mid-single-digit organic revenue growth alongside adjusted operating margin expansion despite continued investments in long-term growth. We also expect an improvement in free cash flow now that onetime cash outflows primarily related to our divested treaty reinsurance business are behind us. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to see $100 million in incremental annualized transformation program savings. With respect to noncash pension income, we expect to see a decline due to market volatility and interest rate movements.

轉向我們的 2023 年指南。根據當前的市場狀況，儘管我們持續投資於長期增長，但我們預計將實現中等個位數的有機收入增長以及調整後的營業利潤率擴張。由於主要與我們剝離的條約再保險業務相關的一次性現金流出已經過去，我們還預計自由現金流會有所改善。正如我之前提到的，我們預計每年將節省 1 億美元的增量轉型計劃。關於非現金養老金收入，我們預計會因市場波動和利率變動而下降。

For 2023, we expect about $112 million in pension income as compared to $271 million in 2022. I'd like to note that despite this dynamic, the funded position of our plans has improved. We remain focused on our long-term targets and recognize that to achieve them, we will need to build on prior momentum and continue to accelerate revenue, margin and cash flow growth. Each of these areas remains the subject of significant management attention.

到 2023 年，我們預計養老金收入約為 1.12 億美元，而 2022 年為 2.71 億美元。我想指出，儘管存在這種動態，但我們計劃的資金狀況有所改善。我們仍然專注於我們的長期目標，並認識到要實現這些目標，我們將需要在先前的勢頭的基礎上繼續加快收入、利潤率和現金流量的增長。這些領域中的每一個領域仍然是管理層重點關注的主題。

Overall, it was a strong quarter and year for WTW with performance that aligned with our expectations. Our results reflect a lot of hard work, which included vigorous hiring efforts, investments in technology, successful transformation initiatives and the unwavering dedication of our colleagues. We ended the year in a solid position, and I'm confident that we will continue to build momentum in 2023 as we work to achieve our long-term targets.

總體而言，對於 WTW 來說，這是一個強勁的季度和年度，其表現符合我們的預期。我們的業績反映了很多艱苦的工作，其中包括積極的招聘工作、技術投資、成功的轉型計劃以及我們同事堅定不移的奉獻精神。我們以穩固的狀態結束了這一年，我相信在我們努力實現長期目標的過程中，我們將在 2023 年繼續保持勢頭。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我們打開它進行問答。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question. Can you guys just give us the impact of the book gains and the fiduciary investment income on both your revenue and margins for the fourth quarter as well as for the full year?

我的第一個問題。你們能告訴我們賬面收益和信託投資收入對你們第四季度和全年的收入和利潤率的影響嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Elyse. It's Andrew. I think, as you point out, it's meaningful to talk about those 2 components that underlie the revenue growth figures for the quarter. As you know, we had headwinds from gain on sale activities, and these were partially offset by sort of investment income. The tailwind from investment income was $24 million for the quarter and $43 million for the full year. And that was partially offset by the headwinds which we had from the gain on sale activity which was $65 million for the quarter and $63 million for the full year.

是的，當然。謝謝，愛麗絲。是安德魯。我認為，正如您指出的那樣，談論構成本季度收入增長數據基礎的這兩個組成部分是有意義的。如您所知，我們在銷售活動中遇到了不利因素，這些不利因素被某種投資收入部分抵消了。本季度投資收入的增長為 2400 萬美元，全年為 4300 萬美元。這部分被我們從銷售活動中獲得的逆風所抵消，本季度為 6500 萬美元，全年為 6300 萬美元。

I think it's also important to note that we still would have had mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion absent those items.

我認為同樣重要的是要注意，如果沒有這些項目，我們仍然會有中個位數的有機增長和利潤率擴張。

Okay. And then my second question is on free cash flow, right? Given where you guys were for 2022, I mean you're still-- you're running short of that 3-year target that you guys have laid out. And so -- could you just get -- is there a line of sight to getting into that free cash flow target? And can you just talk through some of the ways you're looking to improve your free cash flow in '23 and '24?

好的。然後我的第二個問題是關於自由現金流，對吧？鑑於你們 2022 年的情況，我的意思是你們仍然——你們還沒有達到你們制定的 3 年目標。那麼——你能不能——是否有進入自由現金流目標的視線？你能談談你希望在 23 和 24 年改善自由現金流的一些方法嗎？

Yes, sure. As we discussed on the last call, we faced more headwinds on free cash flow than we originally anticipated, including our exit from Russia and timing differences from cash payments made in 2022 on both the termination fee and the Willis regain. Nonrecurring working capital items, including these tax payments and other economic factors had a meaningful impact on free cash flow in 2022.

是的，當然。正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣，我們在自由現金流方面面臨的阻力比我們最初預期的要多，包括我們退出俄羅斯以及與 2022 年在終止費和 Willis 重新獲得現金支付方面的時間差異。非經常性營運資本項目，包括這些納稅和其他經濟因素，對 2022 年的自由現金流產生了重大影響。

Looking ahead, we've not provided any annual free cash flow guidance, but we do remain committed to achieving our cumulative 3-year free cash flow target of $1.3 billion to $5.3 billion. We're focused on free cash flow generation, we understand what is required to reach that target from where we are today, and we are lining things up to get there. We expect the one-off items and the related headwinds to abate. We are optimizing the cash generation profile of our business portfolio, and we're focusing on tactical working capital improvements as well.

展望未來，我們沒有提供任何年度自由現金流指導，但我們仍然致力於實現 13 億美元至 53 億美元的 3 年累計自由現金流目標。我們專注於產生自由現金流，我們了解從今天的情況來看實現該目標所需的條件，並且我們正在為實現這一目標做好準備。我們預計一次性項目和相關不利因素會減弱。我們正在優化我們業務組合的現金生成情況，我們也專注於戰術性營運資本改進。

And then just one more quick one. So you did revise your '24 EPS target last quarter. But then this quarter, right, you gave us the pension income guide, which is lower pension income for '23. Is that embedded within the guide, the $ 1,750 to $ 2,050, right? That pension income will be lower, you would have a lower base in '23 and still be able to get to that 24% EPS target?

然後再快一點。所以你上個季度確實修改了你的'24 EPS目標。但是這個季度，對了，你給了我們養老金收入指南，這是 23 年較低的養老金收入。指南中包含 1,750 美元到 2,050 美元，對嗎？養老金收入會更低，你在 23 年的基數會更低，但仍然能夠達到 24% 的 EPS 目標嗎？

So Elyse, we've not adjusted our 2024 pension income assumption for the current headwind we've got in 2023. As we've seen during the last 12 months, a lot can happen when it comes to external factors, so a lot can change over the next 2 years as well. We do remain focused on driving organic growth, operating leverage and cost savings to achieve our long-term EPS target.

所以 Elyse，我們沒有針對 2023 年遇到的當前不利因素調整 2024 年養老金收入假設。正如我們在過去 12 個月中看到的那樣，在外部因素方面可能會發生很多事情，所以很多事情可以未來 2 年也會發生變化。我們仍然專注於推動有機增長、經營槓桿和成本節約，以實現我們的長期每股收益目標。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Gregory Peters 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

For my first question, I'm going to focus in on both the adjusted operating margin. If I look at the full year and your results, it's up 100 basis points from prior year. And in your prepared remarks, you talked about all the new hires that you successfully executed on last year. Can you talk about how those hires affected the margin results, the margin expansion results in '22? And I guess when I'm thinking about '23 and '24 as those employees get the new hires get more -- get onboarded and they become more productive in year 2 and year 3, maybe there's some tailwind on margin from that. So some perspective there would be helpful.

對於我的第一個問題，我將重點關注調整後的營業利潤率。如果我看一下全年和你們的結果，它比上一年增加了 100 個基點。在你準備好的發言中，你談到了你去年成功執行的所有新員工。你能談談這些僱員如何影響利潤率結果，22 年的利潤率擴張結果嗎？而且我想，當我在考慮 23 和 24 年時，隨著這些員工獲得更多新員工——入職，他們在第 2 年和第 3 年變得更有效率，也許從中會有一些順風。所以一些觀點會有幫助。

Yes, Greg. So with regard to talent, I mean, we're really pleased with the progress we've made on our higher efforts during the year. Net hiring for the year is positive. Our headcount is up by almost 2,500 to 46,600 employees, which is kind of back to 2019 levels, and that's despite the divestitures we've made since then. We do expect the contribution to the improvement in our talent base fee become more meaningful into 2023, and we've already seen positive trends as we progress through 2022. I think that's reflected in the revenue growth numbers start from quarter-to-quarter.

是的，格雷格。因此，關於人才，我的意思是，我們對這一年在更高努力方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。今年的淨招聘人數為正。我們的員工人數增加了近 2,500 人，達到 46,600 人，這有點回到 2019 年的水平，儘管我們從那時起進行了資產剝離。我們確實預計，到 2023 年，我們對人才基礎費用改善的貢獻會變得更有意義，而且隨著我們在 2022 年的進步，我們已經看到了積極的趨勢。我認為這反映在從季度到季度開始的收入增長數字中。

We're continuing to hire opportunistically in the number of open positions and base position, of course, are going to vary at any given time based on our needs. But we're really encouraged by the progress we've made, and we're going to continue to focus on expanding our talent base as necessary to achieve our growth targets. You'll probably see some further detail on our high reprinting goals in our 10-K, which will be filed later in the month.

我們將繼續在空缺職位和基本職位的數量上機會主義地招聘，當然，我們會根據我們的需要在任何給定時間發生變化。但我們對所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞，我們將繼續專注於擴大我們的人才基礎，以實現我們的增長目標。您可能會在本月晚些時候提交的 10-K 中看到有關我們高重印目標的更多詳細信息。

And just a point of clarification on that. I sort of viewed '22 as like a hiring super cycle for you guys -- is it -- when I think about '23, is it more -- are we back to more normalized run rate type of additions? Or are you still -- would you still think of '23 is still looking out to make a substantial addition to your workforce?

只是澄清一點。我有點把 22 年視為你們的招聘超級週期——是嗎——當我想到 23 年時，它是否更多——我們是否回到了更正常化的運行率類型？或者你仍然 - 你是否仍然認為'23仍在尋求大量增加你的員工隊伍？

Well, we are continuing to hire opportunistically, as I said, Greg. And yes, there's always going to be some areas in a firm that is the span of services we do where you look and say, okay, we need to kind of advance what we're doing more substantially than others. But I think we're opportunistically is key, right? Whereas coming into 2022. As we talked about in earlier calls, we had more pronounced needs across the organization.

好吧，正如我所說，格雷格，我們將繼續機會主義地招聘。是的，在一家公司中總會有一些領域，那就是我們所做的服務範圍，你會說，好吧，我們需要比其他人更實質性地推進我們正在做的事情。但我認為我們的機會主義是關鍵，對吧？鑑於進入 2022 年。正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們在整個組織中有更明顯的需求。

Yes, that makes sense. Okay. My second question, I guess, is my third technically, but my last question will be on organic revenue guidance. You provided the mid-single-digit guidance and I know you don't want to get mired down in the detail, but I'm wondering if you could give us some idea of how you think the pieces inside Health, Wealth and Career and Risk and Broking might perform in '23 in the context of the '23 guidance.

是的，這是有道理的。好的。我想我的第二個問題是我的第三個技術問題，但我的最後一個問題將是關於有機收入指導的。您提供了中個位數的指導，我知道您不想陷入細節，但我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您如何看待健康、財富和職業以及Risk and Broking 可能會在 '23 指南的背景下在 '23 中執行。

And I guess the reason why I'm asking about this, as I look at the ICT results that were really strong, and I'm just wondering if that's something like that can sustain itself?

我想我問這個問題的原因是，當我看到非常強大的 ICT 結果時，我只是想知道這樣的事情是否可以持續下去？

Yes. Thanks for that. We remain confident in our ability to get to the mid-single-digit growth in 2023 and beyond. That's demonstrated by the organic revenue growth that we achieved this year, reflecting all of the momentum in our businesses. The continued growth from clients seeking our solutions coupled with our robust pipeline and investments that we're making in our talent strengthens our conviction in our ability to achieve that mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in the future.

是的。感謝那。我們對我們在 2023 年及以後實現中等個位數增長的能力充滿信心。我們今年實現的有機收入增長證明了這一點，反映了我們業務的所有勢頭。尋求我們解決方案的客戶的持續增長，加上我們強大的管道和我們對人才的投資，增強了我們對未來實現中個位數有機收入增長能力的信心。

Our focus remains on enterprise level, long-time organic -- long-term organic revenue growth target in the mid-single digits. And specifically regarding thoughts around the growth profiles of each of our businesses. Probably best to refer you back to our Investor Day materials from September of 21, where we did set some of that out business by business of what we expect long term for each one of those components.

我們的重點仍然放在企業層面，長期有機——長期有機收入增長目標在中等個位數。特別是關於我們每項業務的增長概況的想法。可能最好讓您回顧一下我們 21 日 9 月的投資者日材料，在那裡我們確實逐個列出了我們對每個組件的長期預期的業務。

And for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore.

對於我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

I was just wondering if you could size the benefit that the favorable ICT timing had an organic revenue growth in R&D in the quarter? And maybe just talk about how much of a headwind that would be in the first quarter of '23?

我只是想知道您是否可以評估有利的 ICT 時機在本季度研發收入有機增長的好處？也許只是談論 23 年第一季度的逆風有多大？

Yes, it's Andrew. I assume you're referring to the comment about the timing of the ICT software sales? Is that right, David?

是的，是安德魯。我假設您指的是有關 ICT 軟件銷售時間的評論？是這樣嗎，大衛？

Yes.

是的。

That's -- so that was stuff that actually we had expected earlier in the year that ended up occurring in the fourth quarter just to when sales cycles close, et cetera. So I think it's best to look at that business on a full year basis, and that's in line with our expectations of how that business has performed over the longer term.

那是——所以這實際上是我們今年早些時候預期的結果，最終發生在第四季度，直到銷售週期結束時，等等。因此，我認為最好從全年的角度來看待該業務，這符合我們對該業務長期表現的預期。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just looking at the R&B organic growth, I think it was 6% excluding the book of business drag and I'm calculating around a 2-point also a 2-point benefit from fiduciary income. So I'm getting to around 4% organic if I take out book of business impacts and fiduciary impacts, which is about the same as it was last quarter.

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後只看 R&B 的有機增長，我認為不包括業務拖累是 6%，我計算出大約 2 點，也從信託收入中獲得 2 點的收益。因此，如果我剔除業務影響和受託影響書，我的有機率將達到 4% 左右，這與上一季度大致相同。

So I guess I'm wondering why we didn't see that -- or I guess, first, is that right? And if so, why we really didn't see that growth accelerate versus the third quarter?

所以我想我想知道為什麼我們沒有看到 - 或者我想，首先，是這樣嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼我們真的沒有看到與第三季度相比增長加速？

Yes. So I think the first point of clarification there is around the risk and broking growth rates. So 5% organic, a 6% organic, excluding the gain on sale and 6% excluding gain on sale and investment income. So it would have been 6% with or without the tailwind from investment income within that line of business.

是的。所以我認為澄清的第一點是圍繞風險和突破增長率。所以 5% 有機，6% 有機，不包括銷售收益和 6% 不包括銷售收益和投資收益。因此，無論是否有來自該業務範圍內投資收入的順風，它都會是 6%。

Okay. Great. I missed that.

好的。偉大的。我錯過了。

No problem.

沒問題。

And I guess maybe just one more I'll sneak one in. Could you just size the adverse impact that the divested reinsurance business in Russia had on free cash flow this year? Because it does feel like a pretty big ramp to get to the low end of the free cash flow target over the next couple of years. So maybe just help us get a sense for what a more normalized free cash flow number would look like if we didn't have those items would be helpful?

而且我想也許我會再偷偷介紹一個。你能評估一下今年俄羅斯被剝離的再保險業務對自由現金流的不利影響嗎？因為在接下來的幾年裡，要達到自由現金流目標的低端確實感覺像是一個相當大的斜坡。因此，也許只是幫助我們了解如果我們沒有這些項目會有幫助的話，更規範化的自由現金流數字會是什麼樣子？

Yes. We did talk a bit about this on the call, the last quarter. So I think we disclosed that the Russia business had about 1% of our total revenue base and a margin of more than double the enterprise margin. So there is some pretty healthy EBITDA cash flow associated with that. Additionally, we did write off a large amount of receivables that were associated with that business, which we were unable to collect. So there's a fairly sizable headwind, which presented itself from the divestiture and write-off of that business.

是的。上個季度，我們確實在電話會議上談到了這一點。所以我認為我們披露了俄羅斯業務約占我們總收入基礎的 1%，利潤率是企業利潤率的兩倍多。因此，與此相關的 EBITDA 現金流量非常健康。此外，我們確實註銷了大量與該業務相關的應收賬款，我們無法收回。因此，有一個相當大的逆風，它來自該業務的剝離和註銷。

Yes, just for clarity, that was our insurance broking business, not reinsurance broking which we or any of that would have already been divested with the Bollore divestiture.

是的，為了清楚起見，那是我們的保險經紀業務，而不是再保險經紀業務，我們或其中任何一家都已經隨著 Bollore 資產剝離而被剝離。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

I promise to just hold it to a one question and a follow-up. First question, I just wanted to -- I heard the answer to Elyse's question about the pension income being factored into your long-term guide and it can be volatile. But I just want to be clear, it's a meaningful headwind in 2023. And so are there other levers that you're pulling more so than you had kind of previously expected in '23 to be able to show margin improvement?

我保證只提出一個問題和一個後續問題。第一個問題，我只是想——我聽到了愛麗絲關於養老金收入被納入你的長期指南的問題的答案，而且它可能會波動。但我只想明確一點，這是 2023 年的一個重大逆風。那麼，是否有其他槓桿比你之前在 23 年的預期能夠顯示出利潤率改善的更多？

So just to clarify on the size of the headwind, as you'll see in our 10-K, pension income for 2022 was $272 million. and we're guiding for $412 million in 2023. So that, I think, shows you the product quantitative basis what we're facing. We do look at all levers available to us as we run this company. And to the extent we've got a headwind in the other direction, we search for what we can do elsewhere. That feels like how you manage the company every day. And just as we've seen during 2022, we can get all sorts of headwinds and directions, expected or not. We think the benefit of running the diversified portfolio we have, gives us the opportunity to adapt this.

因此，為了澄清逆風的大小，正如您將在我們的 10-K 中看到的那樣，2022 年的養老金收入為 2.72 億美元。我們的目標是在 2023 年達到 4.12 億美元。因此，我認為，這向您展示了我們所面臨的產品定量基礎。在我們經營這家公司時，我們確實會考慮所有可用的槓桿。如果我們在另一個方向遇到逆風，我們就會尋找我們可以在其他地方做的事情。這感覺就像您每天管理公司的方式一樣。正如我們在 2022 年所看到的那樣，無論是否在意料之中，我們都會遇到各種逆風和方向。我們認為經營我們擁有的多元化投資組合的好處讓我們有機會適應這一點。

Okay. And my follow-up, just curious, some of your peers have publicly talked about looking for ways to bring employees more back to the office and to better collaborate. I believe Willis has always kind of been collaborative and a more virtual environment. And you've been clear that a lot of the cost -- some of the cost saves will come from less real estate. But any changes in kind of in your view on the meaningfully lower real estate footprint and kind of just the overall firm's view of remote work?

好的。而我的後續行動，只是好奇，你們的一些同事已經公開談論尋找讓更多員工回到辦公室並更好地協作的方法。我相信 Willis 一直都是協作型的，並且是一個更加虛擬的環境。而且你已經很清楚很多成本 - 一些成本節省將來自更少的房地產。但是，您對顯著降低的房地產足蹟的看法以及整個公司對遠程工作的看法有什麼變化嗎？

So we absolutely have adapted really well to remote work, but we recognize the benefit of in-office collaboration as well. None of that is incompatible with a reduced real estate footprint and we are, I think, extremely successfully navigating back to work, back to collaboration and the flexibility that the workplace at tomorrow really wants from their. So, I'm really happy with how our colleagues have adapted and kept up to great work as they do, both in office and remote. I've seen no lag in how we're able to perform for our clients, and I think that's demonstrated by our results.

所以我們絕對很好地適應了遠程工作，但我們也認識到辦公室協作的好處。所有這些都與減少的房地產足跡不相容，我認為，我們正在非常成功地回到工作、回到協作和明天工作場所真正想要的靈活性。所以，我真的很高興我們的同事們如何適應並保持他們所做的出色工作，無論是在辦公室還是在遠程。我發現我們在為客戶提供服務方面沒有任何滯後，我認為我們的結果證明了這一點。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Newsome 和 Piper Sandler 的對話。

Good morning. Thanks for the call. I wanted to revisit the gain of the book sales impact. And if you could just give us a little bit more, maybe just walk us through, again, what the comparisons will likely be prospectively if we continue to have negative comparisons. And one thing I'm not sure if I have it in my mind and maybe some others are not quite getting is I think there's 2 impacts. One is the actual comparison of having a gain a year ago versus not having today. But is that there also an impact of not having that book any more prospectively over the next year versus a year ago. And so how should we think about sort of those 2 pieces? And how long we will be talking about book gain comparisons.

早上好。感謝您的來電。我想重新審視圖書銷售影響的收益。如果你能給我們多一點，也許只是讓我們再次了解，如果我們繼續進行負面比較，比較可能會是什麼。有一件事我不確定我是否想到了它，也許其他一些人沒有完全理解，我認為有兩個影響。一個是一年前獲得收益與今天沒有收益的實際比較。但是，與一年前相比，明年不再有這本書也會產生影響。那麼我們應該如何考慮這兩件作品呢？我們將在多長時間內討論賬面收益比較。

Yes. So you're absolutely right. There is a second component, right, of the revenue that does bleed off, and that is sort of excluded from what we've been talking about in terms of the gain on sale headwinds that we've experienced in some of our businesses. We do expect that level of book sales to normalize going forward. And if you look back pre-2020, you can start to get a sense of what that normalized level looks like, and we do expect to be getting there in relatively short order as the events from '21 get further and further away.

是的。所以你是絕對正確的。收入的第二個組成部分，對，確實會流失，就我們在某些業務中經歷的銷售逆風而言，這在某種程度上被排除在我們一直在談論的內容之外。我們確實希望圖書銷售水平在未來正常化。如果你回顧 2020 年之前，你可以開始了解正常化水平是什麼樣的，我們確實希望隨著 21 年的事件越來越遠，在相對較短的時間內到達那裡。

So does that mean that we're essentially normalized into '23? Or Gerald going to be talking about this in the next couple of quarters?

那麼這是否意味著我們基本上已經標準化為 23 年？或者 Gerald 將在接下來的幾個季度中談論這個？

I think we put a book gains began to normalize as we progress through 2022, and we expect them to be in line with historical levels in 2023 as 2021. So there may be some quarterly headwinds as that normalization continues throughout 2023. And we'll -- as we have been -- provide detail on what that looks like.

我認為，隨著 2022 年的進展，賬面收益開始正常化，我們預計它們將在 2023 年與 2021 年的歷史水平保持一致。因此，隨著這種正常化在整個 2023 年繼續進行，可能會有一些季度逆風。我們將- 正如我們一直以來 - 提供有關外觀的詳細信息。

That was it. I'll see my second question to Luis.

就是這樣。我將向 Luis 提出第二個問題。

Thank you. Stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse. Andrew just to see if you're on mute.

謝謝。等待我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。安德魯只是想看看你是否處於靜音狀態。

Sorry about that. I have been reading a lot about these net hires, particularly in the summer, you mentioned that construction and aerospace was quite strong. Could you give a sense of the kind of impact on volumes, sales commissions that these hires might have in '23 and '24 as noncompetes roll off? Because it looks like you had a very good result this quarter, but the real impact of these hires is something we should be thinking more about as 2023, 2024 numbers. Am I thinking about that right?

對於那個很抱歉。我已經閱讀了很多關於這些淨招聘的信息，特別是在夏天，你提到建築和航空航天業非常強勁。隨著競業禁止的減少，您能否了解這些員工在 23 年和 24 年可能對銷量和銷售佣金產生的影響？因為看起來你本季度取得了很好的結果，但這些僱員的真正影響是我們應該更多地考慮 2023 年、2024 年的數字。我想的對嗎？

Yes. I think that is right, Andrew. I mean we bring people on. We don't expect them to be fully productive from day 1. It's typically about 12, 18 months before they're fully productive. And so someone we brought on during the summer kind of -- we expect to be hitting their stride in Q3, Q4, the following year in full, right? Do take those -- because of the timing of renewals, right, they -- and bunching around the end of the year, right? So that's where you might get some variation in that -- how many months as opposed to the efficacy of the particular individual, right? But you're absolutely right that someone we brought on who's a great front office talent in 2022, we'll be hitting their stride in 2023 and beyond.

是的。我認為這是對的，安德魯。我的意思是我們讓人們參與進來。我們不期望他們從第一天起就可以完全發揮作用。通常需要 12、18 個月才能完全發揮作用。所以我們在夏天引進的人 - 我們希望在第二年的第三季度，第四季度全面邁進，對吧？一定要拿那些——因為續約的時間，對吧，他們——在年底左右聚集，對吧？所以這就是你可能會有所不同的地方——多少個月而不是特定個體的功效，對嗎？但是你是絕對正確的，我們在 2022 年聘請了一位出色的前台人才，我們將在 2023 年及以後取得進展。

So it just sort of seems like the focus on the call of these book of business gains, it seems like we're getting closer to normalized. It's just not something to focus on. This is where the focus should be. So my next question is on the Medicare Advantage sales. It was kind of interesting to read about some of the smaller public players that are very focused on it. They all seem to be seeing improvements in volumes and margins. And a lot of folks just kind of write this business off is a very low-margin business.

因此，這似乎有點像對這些商業收益書的關注，似乎我們越來越接近正常化。這不是值得關注的事情。這是重點應該放在的地方。所以我的下一個問題是關於 Medicare Advantage 的銷售。閱讀一些非常關注它的較小的公共參與者是很有趣的。他們似乎都看到了銷量和利潤的改善。很多人只是有點註銷這項業務是一項利潤率非常低的業務。

But could you talk a little bit about the margins of Med Advantage as compared to the overall HWC segment? And could you talk a little bit about the prospects that you were seeing in the quarter and an opportunity for continued growth.

但是，與整個 HWC 細分市場相比，您能否談談 Med Advantage 的利潤率？您能否談談您在本季度看到的前景以及持續增長的機會。

Yes. Sure. It's Andrew. So we're not going to get into the specific margins of specific products, but we are pleased with the level of profitability that we are seeing in that product and that business overall as it is a portfolio of different products, of course, primarily MA, but there is a nice balanced portfolio there as well.

是的。當然。是安德魯。因此，我們不會討論特定產品的特定利潤率，但我們對該產品和整個業務的盈利水平感到滿意，因為它是不同產品的組合，當然，主要是 MA ，但那裡也有一個很好的平衡投資組合。

Yes. And I guess as far as the prospects, I mean, first of all, we have continuously run this business for sustainable growth, and that means looking for growth opportunities that are profitable rather than growth for growth's sake. That philosophy has served us, I think, very well and it's one we will be continuing.

是的。我想就前景而言，我的意思是，首先，我們一直在為可持續增長而經營這項業務，這意味著尋找有利可圖的增長機會，而不是為了增長而增長。我認為，這種理念對我們很有幫助，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

But the overall backdrop for that business remains very strong and our relationship with a variety of partners does position us well from a macro perspective, I've cited this before, but when you have 10,000 people becoming newly eligible for Medicare every day, it is quite a tailwind for the industry. Medicare enrollment is projected to grow 7.6% per year over the decade. And the percentage of Medicare eligible people who buy an MA plan rather than just use traditional Medicare is rising, it's expected to grow from just over 40% to more than 50% by 2030. So those are all, I think, good conditions for our business.

但該業務的總體背景仍然非常強勁，我們與各種合作夥伴的關係從宏觀角度來看確實使我們處於有利地位，我之前已經引用過這一點，但是當你每天有 10,000 人新獲得醫療保險資格時，它是對這個行業來說是一個順風。十年來，醫療保險註冊人數預計每年增長 7.6%。購買 MA 計劃而不是僅僅使用傳統 Medicare 的 Medicare 符合條件的人的比例正在上升，預計到 2030 年將從略高於 40% 增長到超過 50%。所以我認為，這些都是我們的良好條件商業。

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

請等待我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Cox 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Just on the Wealth segment, you talked about a number of tailwinds and noted that some of these projects could last years. So I'm curious if you could talk about how long you expect to benefit from sort of the stronger PRT levels and really the regulatory-driven work?

就財富部分而言，您談到了一些有利因素，並指出其中一些項目可能會持續數年。所以我很好奇你是否可以談談你希望從更強大的 PRT 水平和真正的監管驅動工作中受益多久？

Yes. So whenever we have a change in regulation, there's typically a multi-quarter bump as clients trying to analyze and determine actions to take with respect to the change in the environment. The improved funded status of pension plans that we've seen during 2022 gives them additional flexibility to consider risk transfer options. And while as I noted, there's always chance for the economic climate and the funded status for those plans to change over time. That's typically something we see a multi-quarter benefit from as well, right?

是的。因此，每當我們的法規發生變化時，通常會有一個多季度的顛簸，因為客戶試圖分析和確定針對環境變化採取的行動。我們在 2022 年看到的養老金計劃資金狀況的改善為他們考慮風險轉移方案提供了更大的靈活性。正如我所指出的，經濟氣候和這些計劃的資金狀況總是有可能隨著時間的推移而改變。這通常也是我們看到的多季度收益，對吧？

And again, even if the fund as does change to economic conditions, that creates fresh volatility that clients need for analyzing. So we think our strong position in all elements of servicing pension funds in the industry, we see some resilience to the results going forward.

而且，即使基金確實隨著經濟狀況發生變化，也會產生新的波動性，客戶需要進行分析。因此，我們認為我們在行業中為養老基金服務的所有要素中的強勢地位，我們看到了對未來結果的一些彈性。

Got it. And -- maybe just switching over to the transformation program. Any chance you could give us an update on kind of more finally, where these transformation savings are benefiting the margin between corporate and the 2 segments so far in the program?

知道了。並且 - 也許只是切換到轉換程序。您是否有機會向我們提供更多關於最終的更新，到目前為止，這些轉型節省的資金在哪些方面有利於企業和 2 個細分市場之間的利潤率？

Yes. We've seen in your benefit from our strong transformation performance across the portfolio of businesses and in the corporate segment, what you're seeing play out primarily in the corporate segment is the fact that would be a reinvestment need and the talent, things of that nature is not as pronounced as it was, for example, in Risk and Broking. Hence, the transformation savings there more than offset by the investment hiring and to a lesser extent, in HWC where there was margin expansion and the transformation savings were a driver of that.

是的。我們已經看到您從我們在業務組合和企業部門的強大轉型表現中受益，您看到主要在企業部門發揮作用的事實是再投資需求和人才，東西這種性質不像以前那樣明顯，例如，在風險和經紀中。因此，那裡的轉型節省被投資招聘所抵消，在較小程度上抵消了 HWC 的利潤率擴張，而轉型節省是其中的一個驅動因素。

But again, there was some level of reinvestment there, just not to the same extent that you would have seen in Risk and Broking.

但同樣，那裡有一定程度的再投資，只是程度不及您在《風險與經紀》中看到的程度。

Appreciate the answer.

感謝您的回答。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Shanker with Bank of America.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

I don't know what I'm going to find out asking this question, but learn something. When you look at the organic growth you're experiencing right now, can you talk a little bit about customer growth versus inflation versus product sales. And the mix of growth, what is actually growing when we try and break out the successes of the year?

我不知道問這個問題會發現什麼，但是可以學到一些東西。當你審視你現在正在經歷的有機增長時，你能談談客戶增長與通貨膨脹與產品銷售的關係嗎？以及增長的組合，當我們嘗試突破當年的成功時，實際增長的是什麼？

So there's -- there are -- all of the above, right, does play into how we grow, right? We've talked on prior calls about how various parts of how we price are in place in sensitive, whether it's rates in our consulting business or asset values that underline insurance and thus, the commissions we receive. We have also talked about the fact that we're back in the marketplace, right? During the period where we were involved with Aon, we stopped receiving RFPs, and that came back to us beginning with the fourth quarter of 2022, we've enjoyed the success winning new clients. And over the course of emerging from that experience, our retention rates of existing clients have also improved. And that's a credit to the hard work of all our colleagues, making sure that our well-earned reputations for superior client service is maintained.

所以有 - 有 - 以上所有，對，確實影響我們的成長，對吧？我們在之前的電話中談到了我們定價的各個部分是如何在敏感的地方到位的，無論是我們諮詢業務的費率還是強調保險的資產價值，以及我們收到的佣金。我們還談到了我們重返市場的事實，對嗎？在我們參與 Aon 期間，我們停止收到 RFP，從 2022 年第四季度開始，我們又收到了 RFP，我們很享受贏得新客戶的成功。在從那次經歷中脫穎而出的過程中，我們現有客戶的保留率也有所提高。這要歸功於我們所有同事的辛勤工作，確保我們在卓越客戶服務方面贏得的良好聲譽得到維護。

When you're talking about client wins here, to what extent are they new clients to work in? Are they clients who might have been lost during the Willis and uncertainty period that you won back? And can you sort of give examples on what areas of the market you're seeing that market share gain within the space?

當你在這裡談論贏得客戶時，他們在多大程度上是新客戶的工作對象？他們是您贏回的威利斯和不確定時期可能失去的客戶嗎？您能否舉例說明您在哪些市場領域看到該領域的市場份額增加？

Yes. So I mean, it's a mix of all of the above, I think. We have a lot of clients, and so you're going to have a lot of examples on the direction. If you look at various parts of our business, some of them are just much more naturally sticky than others, right? We've got a client of BDO, who's in an outsourced benefits relationship with us, typically with a 3-, 5-, 7-year contract. That business was extremely resilient during all of this and has looked resilient going forward, but we continue to add new clients in the mix as well.

是的。所以我的意思是，我認為這是上述所有因素的混合。我們有很多客戶，所以你會有很多關於方向的例子。如果你看看我們業務的各個部分，其中一些就比其他部分更自然地具有粘性，對吧？我們有一個 BDO 的客戶，他與我們有外包福利關係，通常有 3 年、5 年、7 年的合同。在這一切期間，該業務非常有彈性，並且看起來很有彈性，但我們也在繼續增加新客戶。

Our CRB business is where we saw the most volatility in the client mix, and that's one where I think -- our colleagues did a great job retaining clients, but it was under pressure. Now that we have a clear course and destiny. We've seen client retention and client attraction both up as well as new expansion of existing client relationships. So there's a lot in the hood. We have a lot of variation in the businesses, but the direction, I think, is encouraging across the pest.

我們的 CRB 業務是我們看到客戶組合中波動最大的地方，我認為這就是我們的同事在留住客戶方面做得很好，但它面臨壓力。現在我們有了明確的方向和命運。我們已經看到客戶保留率和客戶吸引力都在上升，以及現有客戶關係的新擴展。所以引擎蓋里有很多東西。我們的業務有很多差異，但我認為，整個行業的方向是令人鼓舞的。

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

請等待我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

Andrew, just a quick question here on fiduciary income. You probably some nice disclosure in your Q last quarter on the tailwind from every 25 basis points. If I take a look at that, it would look like it's probably a 50, call it, basis point tailwind to organic growth in '23, just given where short-term rates are and maybe a little more meaningful for margins. Do I have that right?

安德魯，這裡只是一個關於受託收入的快速問題。你可能在上個季度的 Q 中每 25 個基點順風披露一些很好的信息。如果我看一下，它看起來可能是 23 年有機增長的 50 個基點順風，只是考慮到短期利率的位置，並且可能對利潤率更有意義。我有這個權利嗎？

I think directionally, you're getting there. Remember, it does take time for investments to turn over. So the portfolio has to work through in that as well. But I think directionally, that's consistent with how we're thinking about things.

我認為方向性，你到達那裡。請記住，投資周轉確實需要時間。因此，投資組合也必須在這方面發揮作用。但我認為方向性的，這與我們思考事物的方式是一致的。

Great. That's helpful. And then my second question -- go ahead, sorry.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題——請繼續，抱歉。

Yes. No, I was just going to say the other thing, don't forget, we'll have some gain on sale headwinds that continue through next year, right, that will temper that from a margin perspective.

是的。不，我只是想說另一件事，別忘了，我們將在明年持續的銷售逆風中獲得一些收益，從利潤率的角度來看，這將有所緩和。

Right, right, right. I got that. The second question would be a number of your, call it, peer companies or competitor companies highlighted the headwind from transactional business this quarter and maybe in the first quarter. Do you have a big transactional business? Was that a headwind at all this quarter to organic revenue growth and potentially first quarter?

對，對，對。我明白了。第二個問題是您的許多同行公司或競爭對手公司強調了本季度甚至第一季度交易業務的逆風。您有大型交易業務嗎？這是否對本季度的有機收入增長和潛在的第一季度不利？

So we do have a transactional business of a successful one. I'm glad to say. And we faced the same headwinds as others. We're -- we didn't think about that as we've talked about our expectations.

所以我們確實有一個成功的交易業務。我很高興地說。我們面臨著與其他人一樣的逆風。我們 - 我們在談論我們的期望時沒有考慮到這一點。

Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

請等待我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 與 Truist 的對話。

Yes. Thank you. Small question, in the transact business, anything that you saw around expected lifetime value seems like enrollment season, people were more productive about new business. Did that have an impact on the persistency of the -- of your customers there?

是的。謝謝。小問題，在交易業務中，您在預期終生價值附近看到的任何事物似乎都像是入學季節，人們對新業務的生產力更高。這對您那裡的客戶的持久性有影響嗎？

Yes. We have taken actions, Mark, and to try and do our part to help with persistency, including working with carriers on sort of their customer treatment to make sure that customer satisfaction is as high as possible. And we're happy that those actions seem to be fruitful, and we'll look to maintain that sort of thing going forward, including post-placement customer support on our end. We continue to examine our lifetime values, which, of course, are subject to outside actuarial estimate. And I think that we remain happy with how we're going. I mean persistency has improved. And so no signs that we have anything but to continue our actions and continue to improve, how we go about that business to keep the numbers going forward.

是的。我們已經採取行動，馬克，並儘我們的一份力量來幫助實現持久性，包括與運營商合作處理他們的客戶待遇，以確保客戶滿意度盡可能高。我們很高興這些行動似乎卓有成效，我們將期待繼續保持這種狀態，包括我們這邊的後期客戶支持。我們繼續檢查我們的終生價值，當然，這些價值受外部精算估計的影響。我認為我們對我們的進展感到滿意。我的意思是持久性有所提高。因此，沒有跡象表明我們除了繼續我們的行動並繼續改進之外別無他法，我們如何開展這項業務以保持數字向前發展。

And you say persistency has improved?

你說持久性有所提高？

I did.

我做到了。

Yes. Okay. Thank you very much.

是的。好的。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Derek Han with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Derek Han 與 KBW 的對話。

How do you think about buybacks to current valuations and just the way you think about buying back stock versus reinvestments for this year?

您如何看待當前估值的回購，以及您今年回購股票與再投資的方式？

Yes, sure. As we've got a fairly disciplined approach to capital management that does begin with looking at share repurchases and as the primary use of cash. And given current valuations, we do continue to think that is a very attractive return although we do need to look at our portfolio of potential investments through a strategic lens and you need to continue to reinvest in the business organically or inorganically as appropriate to ensure that we're investing for growth in the future.

是的，當然。由於我們有一個相當嚴格的資本管理方法，它確實從研究股票回購和現金的主要用途開始。鑑於目前的估值，我們確實繼續認為這是一個非常有吸引力的回報，儘管我們確實需要通過戰略視角審視我們的潛在投資組合，並且您需要繼續適當地對業務進行有機或無機再投資，以確保我們正在為未來的增長而投資。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my second question is more on a high level. At your last Investor Day, you talked about kind of moving upstream to larger accounts. Can you just give us an update on how that's progressing? And how that's contemplated in your mid-single-digit organic growth guidance for this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是更高層次的。在你的最後一個投資者日，你談到了向上游轉移到更大的賬戶。您能否向我們介紹一下進展情況？在您今年的中個位數有機增長指導中如何考慮這一點？

We're happy with how we continue to be a large account reference there was principally across the R&D portfolio, right? Our existing HWC business skews large accounts to begin with. With respect to how we're progressing in large market, I think I'd just point to the fact that we're growing and large market is very much a part of that. Some of the talent we brought on focus is there. But we think we play well across all market segments, and that's a strength we have for us.

我們很高興我們如何繼續成為主要在研發組合中的大型客戶參考，對嗎？我們現有的 HWC 業務從一開始就偏向於大客戶。關於我們在大市場上的進展，我想我只想指出一個事實，即我們正在成長，而大市場是其中的重要組成部分。我們關注的一些人才就在那裡。但我們認為我們在所有細分市場都表現出色，這是我們的優勢。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 與 Baird 的對話。

I've got 2. One, when we take a look at Health, Wealth and Careers. Most of the business is cyclically insensitive and across the board. But you do have some cyclically sensitive elements within that business. I'm wondering what you're seeing just in terms of client behavior buyer intentions in that area? And then I have a follow-up with regards to cost synergies.

我有 2 個。第一個，當我們看一下健康、財富和職業時。大多數業務對周期不敏感且全面。但是您在該業務中確實有一些週期性敏感元素。我想知道您在該領域的客戶行為購買者意圖方面看到了什麼？然後我對成本協同效應進行了跟進。

Yes. So typically, our career business is the one that's seen the most volatility to it through the economic cycle. We not see all that much of it this time as employers are trying to adjust to the quota but new normal work. And you even see that despite threat of recession in the job numbers that we posted here in the U.S. We've also taken measures over the years to make that business some of us economically sensitive, switching to software and technology as part of the offering and to focus on some of the parts of the business that are also less economically sensitive like executive compensation as part of the mix. So not declaring victory, but I think we've made strides in removing some of the sensitivity there. The higher demand has been holding up well, we think.

是的。因此，通常情況下，我們的職業業務是經濟周期中波動最大的業務。這次我們看不到太多，因為雇主正試圖調整配額，但新的正常工作。你甚至可以看到，儘管我們在美國這裡發布的就業人數面臨衰退的威脅。多年來，我們還採取措施使我們中的一些人對經濟敏感，轉向軟件和技術作為產品和技術的一部分專注於業務中一些經濟敏感性較低的部分，例如高管薪酬作為組合的一部分。所以沒有宣布勝利，但我認為我們在消除那裡的一些敏感性方面取得了長足進步。我們認為，更高的需求一直保持良好。

That's terrific. And then with regards to the incremental cost synergies that you ended up achieving. Did that come primarily from real estate or personnel or a combination thereof? And what's going to drive the $100 million of additional cost reductions next year and any change to the 2024 run rate savings targets.

真了不起。然後關於您最終實現的增量成本協同效應。這主要來自房地產或人員還是兩者的結合？以及什麼將推動明年 1 億美元的額外成本削減以及對 2024 年運行率節約目標的任何改變。

So no change to the 2024 targets. The amount that sort of got pulled forward in Q4 is really just a matter of certain components moving faster than we've anticipated. And that's come across the portfolio of actions that we've taken, whether it was real estate or technology and optimization or right shoring, things of that nature. So we're pretty pleased that it did come from all components of the program.

因此，2024 年目標沒有變化。第 4 季度的這種提前量實際上只是某些組件的移動速度比我們預期的要快的問題。這是我們採取的一系列行動的結果，無論是房地產、技術、優化還是正確的支持，都是那種性質的事情。所以我們很高興它確實來自該程序的所有組件。

And that's the expectation for the $100 million as well in terms of this coming year?

就來年而言，這也是對 1 億美元的預期嗎？

Correct. We do expect all components to be contributors going forward.

正確的。我們確實希望所有組件都成為未來的貢獻者。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我不會在隊列中顯示更多問題。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。