Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. Please refer to wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that were issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next three months on WTW's website.

早安.歡迎參加 WTW 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。請參閱 wtwco.com 查看今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充資訊。今天的通話正在錄音，並將在未來三個月內在 WTW 的網站上發布。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors, investors should review the Forward-Looking Statements section of the earnings press release issued this morning, as well as other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings.

今天電話會議中的某些評論可能構成《1995 年私人證券改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果有重大差異，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。有關這些和其他風險因素的更詳細討論，投資者應查看今天早上發布的收益新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明部分，以及最新的 10-K 表格和其他 Willis Towers Watson SEC 文件中的其他披露內容。

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

電話會議期間可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關非公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關這些指標的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分中最新的收益報告和其他資料。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給 WTW 的執行長卡爾赫斯 (Carl Hess)。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安。感謝您參加 WTW 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起的是我們的財務長安德魯·克拉斯納 (Andrew Krasner)。

Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge the devastating wildfires in California and express our deepest sympathy to all those affected. For our colleagues, clients, and business partners in the areas impacted, our thoughts are with you, and we will continue to lend our support through the difficult time.

在我們開始之前，我想承認加州發生了毀滅性的野火，並向所有受影響的人表示最深切的同情。對於受影響地區的同事、客戶和業務夥伴，我們的心與你們同在，我們將在困難時期繼續提供支援。

2024 was a landmark year for WTW. The completion of our three-year Grow, Simplify and Transform strategic priorities has strengthened our competitive position and enabled us to deliver on our financial target for 2024. Thanks to our team's focus and collaboration, we entered 2025 with strong momentum in the market and all our businesses primed to perform.

2024年對WTW來說是個具有里程碑意義的一年。我們為期三年的成長、簡化和轉型策略重點的完成增強了我們的競爭地位，並使我們能夠實現 2024 年的財務目標。由於我們團隊的專注和協作，我們在進入 2025 年時市場勢頭強勁，所有業務都已做好充分準備。

As we discussed at our Investor Day in December, three years of hard work to Grow, Simplify and Transform have made WTW a faster growing, more focused, and more profitable company. We grew the business by making strategic investments in talent and innovation, simplified our business to become more efficient and agile, and transformed the business to modernize and enhance how we operate. The successful execution of our strategy was reflected in our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results.

正如我們在 12 月的投資者日上所討論的那樣，三年的艱苦努力，成長，簡化和轉型使 WTW 成為一家成長更快，更專注，更盈利的公司。我們透過對人才和創新進行策略性投資來發展業務，簡化業務以提高效率和靈活性，並實現業務轉型以實現營運方式的現代化和增強。我們策略的成功執行體現在我們的第四季和 2024 年全年業績上。

We delivered 5% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter with an adjusted operating margin of 36.1%, up 190 basis points over the prior year. Excluding TRANZACT, which we divested on December 31, we recorded 6% organic revenue growth and 36.6% adjusted operating margin. Our Transformation program, which has now concluded, delivered $27 million of incremental annualized savings during the quarter, bringing total savings over the life of the program to $473 million.

我們第四季實現了 5% 的有機收入成長，調整後營業利潤率為 36.1%，比上年增長 190 個基點。除 12 月 31 日剝離的 TRANZACT 外，我們的有機收入成長了 6%，調整後營業利潤率成長了 36.6%。我們的轉型計畫現已結束，該計畫在本季度實現了 2,700 萬美元的增量年度化節約，使該計畫實施期間的總節約達到 4.73 億美元。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $8.13, a 9% increase year over year. For the full year, we had organic revenue growth of 5% in line with our mid-single-digit target or 6% excluding TRANZACT. We expanded adjusted operating margin by 190 basis points year over year to 23.9% or 24.4%, excluding TRANZACT, fulfilling our commitment to annual margin expansion. Our adjusted diluting earnings per share were $16.93, up 17% year over year.

調整後每股攤薄收益為 8.13 美元，年增 9%。就全年而言，我們的有機收入成長率為 5%，符合我們的中個位數目標，若不包括 TRANZACT，則成長率為 6%。我們的調整後營業利潤率年增 190 個基點至 23.9%（不包括 TRANZACT）或 24.4%，履行了我們對年度利潤率擴大的承諾。我們的調整後每股攤薄收益為 16.93 美元，年增 17%。

We're proud of our 2024 performance and are excited for the next chapter at WTW as we implement our new strategy to accelerate performance, enhance efficiency, and optimize our portfolio. We're now focused on extending and amplifying our strengths and building on the solid foundation we've created over the last three years.

我們為 2024 年的業績感到自豪，並對 WTW 的下一篇章感到興奮，因為我們將實施新策略來加速績效、提高效率並優化我們的投資組合。我們現在專注於擴展和加強我們的優勢，並在過去三年中奠定的堅實基礎上再接再厲。

To accelerate performance, we're focused on strengthening our core businesses, continuing to innovate, leveraging and expanding our global footprint and advancing connections across our business. To enhance efficiency, we're committed to continuous improvement and delivering on our [we do] efforts to drive both margin and free cash flow improvement. And to optimize our portfolio, we'll proceed by investing organically and inorganically to improve our business mix, guided by a focused investment framework and a rebalanced capital allocation strategy.

為了提高績效，我們專注於加強核心業務，不斷創新，利用和擴大我們的全球影響力並加強整個業務的聯繫。為了提高效率，我們致力於不斷改進，並努力提高利潤率和自由現金流。為了優化我們的投資組合，我們將在重點投資框架和重新平衡的資本配置策略的指導下，透過有機投資和無機投資來改善我們的業務組合。

As we discussed at Investor Day, many of our strategic objectives represent an evolution rather than a revolution for our businesses. We feel confident about the path forward because we're focusing on and investing most heavily in our best-performing ideas. Let me take a few minutes to share some color around several of our key client wins from the fourth quarter reflecting our strategic priorities.

正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們的許多策略目標代表著業務的演變而不是革命。我們對前進的道路充滿信心，因為我們專注於表現最佳的想法並投入最多資金。請容許我花幾分鐘來介紹我們在第四季度贏得的幾個主要客戶的成果，這些成果反映了我們的策略重點。

Our industry-leading analytics capabilities were a key contributor to signing a major global logistics provider to a cross-segment contract, which includes all its global lines of insurance coverage as well as global benefits management. We previously worked with this client a much smaller mandate, and by using our Risk Intelligence software, it changed how the client thought about their insurance portfolio and who they wanted to work with. Together, with the trust our team built, our innovative and collaborative solutions led the client to appoint us over their incumbent broker.

我們領先業界的分析能力是促成我們與一家大型全球物流供應商簽署跨部門合約的關鍵因素，該合約涵蓋其所有全球保險範圍以及全球福利管理。我們之前曾與該客戶合作過一個規模小得多的項目，透過使用我們的風險情報軟體，客戶改變了對其保險組合的看法以及他們想要與誰合作。總而言之，憑藉我們團隊建立的信任，我們的創新和協作解決方案使客戶選擇我們而不是他們現任的經紀人。

We'll continue to focus on strengthening smart connections across our business and going to market collaboratively. In the fourth quarter, this approach, alongside our global service delivery model, helped us expand our existing relationship with a large global IT vendor to cover a whole spectrum of insurance programs, global benefits management, and Embark and Engage implementations.

我們將繼續致力於加強整個業務的智慧連接並合作進入市場。在第四季度，這種方法與我們的全球服務交付模式一起幫助我們擴大了與大型全球 IT 供應商的現有關係，涵蓋了整個保險計劃、全球福利管理以及 Embark 和 Engage 實施。

Similarly, collaboration between our CRB and H&B teams in Asia and Europe help secure a brokerage appointment across both businesses for a leading communications technology group in Asia, highlighting the connectivity of our businesses across segments and regions.

同樣，我們在亞洲和歐洲的 CRB 和 H&B 團隊之間的合作幫助亞洲一家領先的通訊技術集團獲得了兩項業務的經紀任命，凸顯了我們業務在不同領域和地區的連通性。

In HWC, we're continuing to focus on our core businesses that have sustained mid-single-digit growth since 2016 and delivered 3% organic growth or 6% organic growth, excluding TRANZACT in the fourth quarter. HWC's strategic priorities of core growth, smart connections and innovation will enable us to build on our strong financial track record with sustained revenue growth and further margin expansion. Many of our new business wins in HWC in the fourth quarter reflect these priorities. We continue to add new multi-year client contracts in our core service areas due to our deep technical expertise, sophisticated analytics, and our ability to create breakthroughs that matter.

在 HWC，我們將繼續專注於我們的核心業務，自 2016 年以來，這些業務一直保持中等個位數成長，並在第四季度實現了 3% 的有機成長或 6% 的有機成長（不包括 TRANZACT）。HWC 的策略重點是核心成長、智慧連接和創新，這將使我們能夠在強勁的財務業績基礎上繼續保持收入成長並進一步擴大利潤率。我們在第四季度在 HWC 取得的許多新業務都反映了這些優先事項。憑藉深厚的技術專長、先進的分析能力以及創造重大突破的能力，我們不斷在核心服務領域增加新的多年期客戶合約。

Our focus on smart connections resulted in wins that extend across service areas. For example, one of the world's fastest-growing international airlines chose us as their ongoing pension investment advisor, global retirement governance advisor, and outsourcing provider. We won health and benefits plan management and communications work for a Fortune 500 diversified manufacturing company, unseating decades-long incumbents. And one of the largest nonprofit healthcare systems in the United States awarded us a long-term outsourcing, retirement, and employee experience contract. And so did a leading logistics company based in Europe.

我們對智慧連結的關注帶來了跨服務領域的勝利。例如，全球發展最快的國際航空公司之一選擇我們作為其持續退休金投資顧問、全球退休管理顧問和外包提供者。我們贏得了財富 500 強多元化製造公司的健康和福利計劃管理及溝通工作，擊敗了執掌數十年的現任者。美國最大的非營利醫療保健系統之一授予我們一份長期外包、退休和員工體驗合約。一家總部位於歐洲的領先物流公司也這麼做了。

In R&B, as our specialization strategy continues to generate strong results, we're focused on deepening our expertise and expanding our existing specialty line into new geographies while building the talent and tools to support new specialized lines. In the fourth quarter, we delivered high-single-digit organic growth in R&B and won a number of large contracts that reflect the value of our specialization strategy. The CRB across order teams spanning multiple specialties created a customized construction program for a Middle Eastern mega project of an Asian manufacturing company. Our global collaboration and local expertise helped us secure the work for all-risk coverage for the project. And in ICT, we won a multi-year software contract with a large insurer, driven by our global analytics capabilities and the efficiency of our technology solutions.

在 R&B 領域，隨著我們的專業化策略繼續產生強勁成果，我們專注於深化我們的專業知識，將現有的專業產品線擴展到新的地區，同時建立人才和工具來支援新的專業產品線。第四季度，我們在研發領域實現了高個位數的有機成長，並贏得了許多大合同，體現了我們專業化策略的價值。CRB跨多個專業的訂單團隊為一家亞洲製造公司的中東大型專案製定了客製化的建設方案。我們的全球協作和本地專業知識幫助我們確保了該專案的全險承保工作。在資訊和通訊技術領域，憑藉我們的全球分析能力和技術解決方案的效率，我們贏得了一家大型保險公司的多年期軟體合約。

I also want to take a moment to highlight our progress on optimizing our portfolio. As I mentioned earlier, we completed the sale of TRANZACT for $632 million on December 31 and expect this divestiture to strengthen our growth rates, operating margins, and free cash flow starting in 2025. We're also reentering the reinsurance market through a joint venture with Bain Capital, and Andrew will provide some financial details on that later.

我還想花點時間強調我們在優化投資組合方面的進展。正如我之前提到的，我們於 12 月 31 日以 6.32 億美元完成了對 TRANZACT 的出售，並預計此次資產剝離將從 2025 年開始增強我們的增長率、營業利潤率和自由現金流。我們也透過與貝恩資本的合資重新進入再保險市場，安德魯稍後將提供一些財務細節。

And as we discussed at Investor Day, we're taking a focused and disciplined approach to organic investment. We're prioritizing improving our business mix, expanding our reach across the insurance value chain, and enhancing our margins and cash flow. We'll be thoughtful about the opportunities we pursue, recognizing the importance of minimizing business disruption and creating clear, cultural alignment.

正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們對有機投資採取了專注且嚴謹的方式。我們的首要任務是改善業務組合、擴大我們在保險價值鏈中的影響力以及提高利潤率和現金流。我們會認真考慮我們所追求的機會，並認識到盡量減少業務中斷和建立清晰的文化協調的重要性。

As I look at the year ahead, I feel confident in our position and our outlook for 2025. We have strong momentum in the market. We continue to make steady progress against our strategy. And the political and regulatory changes we are seeing in the US and elsewhere across the globe tend to support client demand for our services.

展望未來一年，我對我們的地位和 2025 年的前景充滿信心。我們在市場上有著強勁的發展動能。我們繼續按照我們的策略穩步前進。我們在美國和全球其他地方看到的政治和監管變化傾向於支持客戶對我們服務的需求。

We introduced a financial framework at Investor Day in December that calls for mid-single-digit organic growth, continued annual adjusted operating margin expansion, annual adjusted EPS growth, and ongoing growth in free cash flow and free cash flow margin. Andrew will share more details on our financial performance and outlook shortly. But before I hand it over to him, I want to take a moment to reflect on what we've gained from the journey that we've been on these past three years.

我們在 12 月的投資者日上推出了一個財務框架，要求實現中等個位數的有機增長、年度調整後營業利潤率的持續擴大、年度調整後每股收益的增長以及自由現金流和自由現金流利潤率的持續增長。安德魯將很快分享有關我們的財務業績和前景的更多細節。但在把權力移交給他之前，我想花點時間回顧一下我們在過去三年的歷程中獲得了什麼。

We have grown, we have simplified, and we have transformed, and we are much better for it. I have never been more optimistic about WTW's future. We are more focused, more connected, more efficient, and more aligned than we've ever been. And we're keenly focused on realizing our potential to create value for our shareholders.

我們已經成長、我們已經簡化、我們已經轉變，我們變得更好了。我對 WTW 的未來從未如此樂觀。我們比以往任何時候都更加專注、更加互聯、更有效率、更加協調。我們熱衷於發揮我們的潛力，為股東創造價值。

We're well positioned to accelerate performance and deliver profitable growth through innovation and expansion into attractive markets. We're continuing to enhance efficiencies across the company for continued margin expansion and free cash flow improvement. And we're optimizing our business mix to elevate our financial performance and our strategic position.

我們已做好準備，透過創新並向有吸引力的市場擴張來加速業績並實現獲利成長。我們將繼續提高整個公司的效率，以持續擴大利潤率並改善自由現金流。我們正在優化業務組合，以提高我們的財務表現和策略地位。

I want to thank all our colleagues for their contributions to improving WTW and for their continued commitment to our clients and our company. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

我要感謝我們所有的同事為改善 WTW 所做的貢獻以及他們對我們的客戶和公司的持續承諾。說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning and thanks for joining us today. In the fourth quarter, we delivered organic revenue growth of 5% or 6% excluding TRANZACT. Adjusted operating margin expanded 190 basis points to 36.1% or 36.6% excluding TRANZACT. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $8.13, an increase of 9% over the prior year.

謝謝，卡爾。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。在第四季度，我們實現了 5% 或 6% 的有機收入成長（不包括 TRANZACT）。調整後營業利潤率擴大 190 個基點至 36.1%（若不包括 TRANZACT，則為 36.6%）。調整後每股攤薄收益為 8.13 美元，較上年增長 9%。

For the full year, we delivered organic revenue growth of 5% or 6% excluding TRANZACT. Adjusted operating margins expanded 190 basis points to 23.9%. Excluding TRANZACT, our margin expanded 210 basis points to 24.4%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $16.93 up 17% over the prior period. Our full-year results reflect our strong execution against our Grow, Simplify and Transform strategic priorities, positioning us well as we entered 2025.

全年來看，我們實現了 5% 或 6% 的有機收入成長（不包括 TRANZACT）。調整後營業利益率擴大190個基點至23.9%。不包括 TRANZACT，我們的利潤率擴大了 210 個基點，達到 24.4%。調整後每股攤薄收益為 16.93 美元，較上期成長 17%。我們的全年業績反映了我們在成長、簡化和轉型策略重點方面的強勁執行，為我們進入 2025 年做好了準備。

Next, I'll spend some time reviewing our segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis unless specifically stated otherwise.

接下來，我將花一些時間回顧我們的分部表現。請注意，為了與前期進行對比，除非另有明確說明，有關我們各部門結果的所有評論都將以有機基礎為基礎。

Health, Wealth, and Career revenue grew 3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding TRANZACT, HWC revenue grew 6%. With the full year, HWC generated 4% organic growth or 5% excluding TRANZACT, which was in line with our outlook for the segment as we outlined at Investor Day. Our Health business grew 18% for the quarter or 16% excluding book of business activity. All geographies achieved double-digit growth with new business and strong client retention being the primary contributors. The continued expansion of our global benefits management client portfolio, which we discussed at Investor Day, was a meaningful driver as well.

與去年第四季相比，健康、財富和職業收入成長了 3%。不包括 TRANZACT，HWC 收入成長了 6%。全年來看，HWC 實現了 4% 的有機成長，若不包括 TRANZACT 則為 5%，這與我們在投資者日概述的對該部門的展望一致。我們的健康業務本季成長了 18%，若不包括業務活動則成長了 16%。所有地區均實現了兩位數的成長，主要貢獻因素是新業務和強大的客戶保留率。我們在投資者日討論的全球福利管理客戶組合的持續擴張也是一個有意義的推動力。

We also saw robust consulting project activity in Europe. And as expected, timing of consulting projects and commissions positively impacted our North America results. We expect Health to deliver high-single-digit growth in 2025 based on our 2024 new business success in our current pipeline and sales focus.

我們也看到歐洲的諮詢計畫活動十分活躍。正如預期的那樣，諮詢項目和佣金的時間對我們的北美業績產生了積極影響。基於我們目前的產品線和銷售重點在 2024 年新業務方面的成功，我們預計健康業務將在 2025 年實現高個位數成長。

Wealth revenue grew 3% in the fourth quarter, driven by low single digit growth in our retirement business. We saw a strong demand for LifeSight in Europe, as well as consulting projects to implement legislative changes. North America also grew on the back of higher levels of project activity. Our investments business delivered low-single-digit growth despite a strong comparable due to new business wins and successful new solutions.

第四季財富收入成長了 3%，這主要得益於我們退休業務的低個位數成長。我們看到歐洲對 LifeSight 的需求強勁，以及實施立法變革的諮詢計畫。受專案活動水準提高的推動，北美也實現了成長。由於贏得新業務和獲得新解決方案，我們的投資業務儘管業績強勁，但仍實現了低個位數成長。

We continue to expect low-single-digit growth in the Wealth business. Career delivered 1% revenue growth in the quarter below our expectations. Timing limited growth in the quarter with some sold projects delayed to Q1. For the full year, Career recorded 4% organic growth and we are confident that Career will continue growing at similar mid-single digit levels.

我們繼續預期財富業務將實現低個位數成長。本季 Career 的營收成長了 1%，低於我們的預期。由於時間因素限制了本季的成長，一些已售出項目被推遲至第一季。就全年而言，Career 實現了 4% 的有機成長，我們相信，Career 將繼續保持類似的中等個位數成長。

Benefits delivery and outsourcing revenue declined 2% versus the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding TRANZACT, BD&O revenue grew 1% with notable growth in project work and benefits outsourcing and new client wins and retirees shopping for new plans in individual marketplace. Excluding TRANZACT, BD&O grew 2% for the full year 2024 despite facing a significant headwind from a large client that insourced its health and benefits administration as we've discussed in previous quarters.

福利交付和外包收入與去年第四季相比下降了 2%。不包括 TRANZACT，BD&O 收入增長了 1%，其中專案工作和福利外包、新客戶贏得以及退休人員在個人市場購買新計劃的業績顯著增長。不包括 TRANZACT，儘管面臨著來自大型客戶（該客戶將其健康和福利管理外包）的巨大阻力（正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣），BD&O 在 2024 年全年仍增長了 2%。

Looking ahead, we expect BD&O to grow at a mid-single-digit rate. HWC's operating margin for the fourth quarter was 41.9%, an increase of 140 basis points compared to the prior year, primarily driven by transformation savings. For the full year, HWC's operating margin grew by 170 basis points to 29.7% and by 180 basis points, excluding TRANZACT, to 31.4%. As we mentioned at Investor Day, for 2025, we expect continued margin expansion in HWC.

展望未來，我們預期 BD&O 將以中等個位數的速度成長。HWC 第四季的營業利潤率為 41.9%，比上年增加 140 個基點，主要得益於轉型節省。全年而言，HWC 的營業利潤率成長了 170 個基點，至 29.7%，若不包括 TRANZACT，則成長了 180 個基點，至 31.4%。正如我們在投資者日提到的那樣，我們預計 2025 年 HWC 的利潤率將繼續擴大。

Moving to Risk and Broking, fourth-quarter revenue was up 7% on an organic basis, or 8% excluding book of business activity on top of a double-digit comparable in the prior year. Operating margin expanded 60 basis points to 33.5%, despite an 80-basis-point combined headwind from book of business activity and a decline in interest income. For the full year, Risk and Broking revenue saw 8% organic growth. Excluding the impact of book of business activity and interest income, R&B's growth rate was also 8%.

轉向風險和經紀業務，第四季度收入在有機基礎上增長了 7%，不包括業務活動則增長了 8%，而去年同期的收入也實現了兩位數的同比增長。儘管業務活動受到 80 個基點的阻力且利息收入下降，但營業利潤率仍擴大了 60 個基點，至 33.5%。全年風險與經紀收入實現了 8% 的有機成長。除去業務活動帳簿和利息收入的影響，R&B的成長率也達到了8%。

Corporate Risk and Broking had a solid quarter, growing 6%. Excluding book of business activity and interest income, CRB revenue grew 8% on top of a double-digit comparable with contributions from all regions and driven by continued improvement in client retention levels globally and strong new business generation.

企業風險及經紀業務本季表現穩健，成長 6%。除去業務活動和利息收入，CRB 收入在所有地區的貢獻均實現兩位數增長的基礎上又增長了 8%，這得益於全球客戶保留水平的持續提高和強勁的新業務增長。

As Carl mentioned, our specialization strategy continues to lead the way with Facultative, Surety and Marine specialty lines having been major contributors to the strong growth performance this quarter. Robust new business activity across a wide range of lines drove growth in Great Britain and Western Europe, which delivered double-digit growth as a whole and in a number of countries in the region with particular strength in Facultative, Construction, Natural Resources, Financial Solutions, FINEX, Marine and Aerospace.

正如卡爾所說，我們的專業化策略持續引領潮流，其中兼職、保證和海上專業線路是本季強勁成長業績的主要貢獻者。各行各業強勁的新業務活動推動了英國和西歐的成長，該地區整體和一些國家都實現了兩位數的成長，尤其在特許、建築、自然資源、金融解決方案、FINEX、海洋和航空航天領域表現強勁。

North America's growth was supported by strong client retention and new business growth. Our international region had strong organic growth across the board with notable double-digit increases in Latin America, Central Europe and Asia, as well as many of our specialty lines.

北美的成長得益於強大的客戶保留和新業務成長。我們的國際地區全面實現強勁有機成長，其中拉丁美洲、中歐和亞洲以及許多專業產品線均實現了顯著的兩位數成長。

Moving to our Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 11% led by strong technology sales and modest growth in consulting services. As we discussed at Investor Day, our ongoing investment in technology is driving an intentional mix shift in ICT, creating value for our clients by integrated technology and consulting solutions.

轉向我們的保險諮詢和技術業務，由於技術銷售強勁和諮詢服務的溫和增長，收入增長了 11%。正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們對技術的持續投資正在推動ICT領域的有意組合轉變，透過整合技術和諮詢解決方案為我們的客戶創造價值。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect mid- to high single-digit growth from both CRB and ICT. R&B's operating margin was 33.5% for the quarter, a 60-basis-point increase over the prior-year fourth quarter, primarily due to operating leverage from our organic revenue growth as well as transformation savings partially offset by headwinds from book of business activity and declining interest income. As we outlined in December, we continue to expect to deliver 100 basis points of average annual adjusted operating margin expansion in R&B over the next three years, driven by operating leverage and additional efficiencies, including the deployment of our global broking platform and workflow optimization.

展望未來，我們繼續預期 CRB 和 ICT 將實現中高個位數成長。R&B 本季的營業利潤率為 33.5%，較去年同期第四季增加 60 個基點，這主要歸功於我們有機收入成長帶來的營業槓桿以及轉型節約，但部分被業務活動阻力和利息收入下降所抵消。正如我們在 12 月所概述的那樣，我們繼續預計未來三年內 R&B 的平均年度調整後營業利潤率將擴大 100 個基點，這得益於營運槓桿和額外效率，包括我們全球經紀平台的部署和工作流程優化。

Now let's turn to the enterprise level results. Adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter was 36.1%, a 190-basis-point increase over prior year, primarily driven by greater operating leverage and continued benefits from our now completed Transformation program. We had $27 million of incremental annualized Transformation savings, bringing the total to $473 million of cumulative savings since the program's inception.

現在讓我們來看看企業級的結果。第四季調整後營業利潤率為 36.1%，較前一年增加 190 個基點，主要得益於更大的營業槓桿和我們現已完成的轉型計畫帶來的持續利益。我們透過轉型實現了 2,700 萬美元的年度增量節約，自該計畫實施以來，累計節約總額達到 4.73 億美元。

Foreign exchange was a headwind to adjusted EPS of $0.08 for the quarter. Based on our current outlook and at current spot rates, we expect foreign exchange to be a headwind of approximately $0.18 on adjusted EPS for 2025.

外匯對本季調整後每股收益 0.08 美元造成不利影響。根據我們目前的展望和當前的現貨匯率，我們預計外匯將對 2025 年調整後每股收益造成約 0.18 美元的阻力。

Our US GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 26% versus 15.7% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate in the quarter was 21.3% compared to 19.1% for the fourth quarter of 2023. Our full-year adjusted tax rate was 21.5%. We expect our 2025 tax rate to be relatively consistent with that of 2024, though we do see some potential for a modestly more favorable rate.

我們本季的美國 GAAP 稅率為 26%，去年同期為 15.7%。本季的調整後稅率為 21.3%，而 2023 年第四季為 19.1%。我們的全年調整後稅率為21.5%。我們預計 2025 年的稅率將與 2024 年的稅率相對一致，但我們確實看到了略微更優惠的稅率的可能性。

As Carl mentioned, WTW completed the sale of the TRANZACT business on December 31. We believe this sale will help us sharpen our strategic focus, simplify our portfolio, and accelerate our progress towards our long-term free cash flow margin goals.

正如卡爾所說，WTW 於 12 月 31 日完成了 TRANZACT 業務的出售。我們相信，此次出售將有助於我們加強策略重點，簡化我們的產品組合，並加速我們實現長期自由現金流利潤率目標的進程。

The transaction resulted in a pretax loss and related impairment charges of over $1 billion each, which are reflected in the full-year GAAP results. These are one-time noncash charges and are not included in adjusted diluted earnings per share. We generated free cash flow of $1.4 billion for the full year of 2024, an increase of $184 million from prior year, primarily driven by operating margin expansion, partially offset by cash outflows related to transformation and discretionary compensation payments.

此次交易導致的稅前損失和相關減損費用均超過10億美元，這些損失和費用已反映在全年 GAAP 業績中。這些是一次性非現金費用，不包括在調整後的每股攤薄收益中。我們在 2024 年全年產生了 14 億美元的自由現金流，比前一年增加了 1.84 億美元，這主要得益於營業利潤率的擴大，但部分被與轉型和自由裁量薪酬支付相關的現金流出所抵消。

Given the sale of TRANZACT, the wind down of our transformation-related cash spending and expected annual margin expansion, we expect to continue expanding our free cash flow margin in 2025 with partial offsets from residual cash transformation expenses and cash taxes on the Willis [re-earnout] payment, which will be classified as cash flows from operating activities. During the quarter, we returned $484 million to our shareholders via share repurchases of $395 million and dividends of $89 million, bringing us to $1.26 billion in capital return to shareholders for the full year.

鑑於 TRANZACT 的出售、我們與轉型相關的現金支出的減少以及預期的年度利潤率擴大，我們預計 2025 年我們的自由現金流利潤率將繼續擴大，部分抵消來自剩餘現金轉型費用和 Willis [再盈利] 付款的現金稅，這些將被歸類為來自經營活動的現金流。本季度，我們透過 3.95 億美元的股票回購和 8,900 萬美元的股息向股東返還了 4.84 億美元，使我們全年向股東的資本回報達到 12.6 億美元。

Before wrapping up, I want to take a few minutes to provide some thoughts on 2025. First, we are making some changes to our non-GAAP metrics to better reflect how we view our core operating performance and to better align with industry reporting. Starting with Q1 2025, we will exclude pension income from adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, and the adjusted effective tax rate. Also, free cash flow and free cash flow margin will reflect cash outflows for capitalized software costs. Please refer to the appendix of our supplemental slides for detailed information on these upcoming changes and the recast of our historical non-GAAP measures.

在結束之前，我想花幾分鐘談談對 2025 年的一些想法。首先，我們對非公認會計準則指標進行了一些修改，以更好地反映我們如何看待我們的核心營運績效，並更好地與行業報告保持一致。從 2025 年第一季開始，我們將把退休金收入排除在調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的有效稅率之外。此外，自由現金流和自由現金流利潤率將反映資本化軟體成本的現金流出。關於這些即將發生的變化以及我們歷史非公認會計準則指標的重塑的詳細信息，請參閱我們的補充幻燈片的附錄。

Second, as we discussed at Investor Day in December, we are now in a position to rebalance our capital allocation approach, thanks to the success of our Grow, Simplify and Transform priorities. We intend to maintain share repurchases as the primary form of capital return and a central component of our capital allocation strategy.

其次，正如我們在 12 月投資者日所討論的那樣，由於「成長」、「簡化」和「轉型」優先事項的成功，我們現在可以重新平衡我們的資本配置方法。我們打算將股票回購作為資本回報的主要形式和資本配置策略的核心組成部分。

We expect to allocate approximately $1.5 billion of share repurchases in 2025, subject to market conditions and potential capital allocation to organic and inorganic investment opportunities. We plan to continue to invest in talent and our platform to drive sustainable growth and expand margins. We will also increasingly emphasize M&A aligned with our strategic priorities of improving our business mix, expanding our reach across the insurance value chain, and enhancing our margins and free cash flow. As part of our investment program, we will be making initial investments in our reinsurance joint venture to support its development as a start-up venture, which we expect to be a $0.25 to $0.35 headwind to adjusted EPS this year.

我們預計 2025 年將回購約 15 億美元的股票，具體取決於市場狀況以及對有機和無機投資機會的潛在資本配置。我們計劃繼續投資人才和平台，以推動永續成長並擴大利潤率。我們也將越來越多地強調與我們的策略重點一致的併購，即改善我們的業務組合、擴大我們在保險價值鏈中的影響力以及提高我們的利潤率和自由現金流。作為我們投資計劃的一部分，我們將對我們的再保險合資企業進行初始投資，以支持其作為新創企業的發展，我們預計這將對今年的調整後每股收益產生 0.25 美元至 0.35 美元的阻力。

Finally, we introduced our financial framework at Investor Day in December and have provided some financial considerations for 2025 in our release and slides, most of which I've discussed in these comments as well. In closing, we are very pleased with our strong business performance in 2024 and expect this momentum to continue in 2025. With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

最後，我們在 12 月的投資者日介紹了我們的財務框架，並在我們的發布會和幻燈片中提供了一些 2025 年的財務考慮，其中大部分我在這些評論中也進行了討論。最後，我們對 2024 年強勁的業務表現感到非常滿意，並預計這一勢頭將在 2025 年繼續保持。現在，讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions). Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指令）。富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question is just kind of thoughts on overall margin improvement. I know you said 100 basis points in R&B. There was no guide other than improving within HWC, and obviously, unallocated costs can fluctuate. So can you just kind of go through the headwinds and tailwinds to margin improvement and how you think about overall margin improvement in '25?

我的第一個問題只是對整體利潤率提高的想法。我知道您說的是 R&B 的 100 個基點。除了 HWC 內部改進之外沒有其他指南，而且顯然未分配成本可能會波動。那麼，您能否簡單談談利潤率提高的不利因素和有利因素，以及您如何看待 25 年整體利潤率的提高？

Sure, Elyse. Thank you, and good morning. We expect to expand our margins for '25. We're going to do this in a few ways, right? We're going to focus on capturing the benefits from our Transformation program. We're going to leverage our [we do] organizations know-how to continue to enhance efficiency through our right work, right place, right technology, and right real estate strategy.

當然，伊莉絲。謝謝，早安。我們預計25年的利潤率將會擴大。我們將透過幾種方式來實現這一點，對嗎？我們將專注於從轉型計劃中獲取效益。我們將利用我們的組織專業知識，透過正確的工作、正確的地點、正確的技術和正確的房地產策略繼續提高效率。

Secondly, we see additional opportunities to invest in process optimization and enhance our work and be more consistent in our client service delivery. And then lastly, we're focused on automation to support productivity gains. We see opportunities to leverage AI responsibly to intelligently enhance our work and further streamline processes.

其次，我們看到了投資流程優化、增強工作以及更一致地提供客戶服務的更多機會。最後，我們專注於自動化來支援生產力的提升。我們看到了負責任地利用人工智慧來智慧地增強我們的工作並進一步簡化流程的機會。

And Elyse, I can walk you through some of the puts and takes as we think about the '25 margin expansion opportunity. So the sale of TRANZACT will be approximately a 50-basis-point tailwind on enterprise margin. And for HWC, where we have a strong track record of delivering margin expansion, we expect to have incremental growth beyond the impact of the TRANZACT divestiture.

伊莉絲，我可以向您介紹我們在考慮 25 年利潤擴大機會時需要考慮的一些利弊。因此，TRANZACT 的出售將為企業利潤帶來約 50 個基點的順風。對於 HWC 而言，我們在實現利潤率擴張方面有著良好的記錄，我們預計，除了 TRANZACT 資產剝離的影響外，我們還將實現增量成長。

Within R&B and as we discussed at Investor Day, we expect to deliver the roughly 100 basis points of margin expansion on average over the next three years. And we're confident in our ability to achieve this as our Transformation program has set us up to drive additional efficiencies in R&B.

在 R&B 領域，正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們預計未來三年內利潤率平均將擴大約 100 個基點。我們對實現這一目標充滿信心，因為我們的轉型計劃已經為我們提高 R&B 的效率奠定了基礎。

Our unallocated net was $310 million in 2024. We expect 2025 to be roughly in line with 2024. And we acknowledge there may be some modest pressure from declining interest rates and that has been contemplated in what I just walked through.

2024 年我們的未分配淨額為 3.1 億美元。我們預計 2025 年將與 2024 年大致持平。我們承認，利率下降可能會帶來一些適度的壓力，這一點我剛才已經考慮到了。

Thanks. And then my follow-up is on capital management, right? I know you guys kind of were talking to this more balanced approach, right, stemming from Investor Day. I still would have thought the buyback might have been higher just given the TRANZACT proceeds, the Willis re-earnout is coming and you're still strong -- current cash position and free cash flow generation. So can you just spend a little bit more time walking us through how you came up with [$1.5 billion]?

謝謝。然後我的後續問題是資本管理，對嗎？我知道你們正在談論這種更平衡的方法，對吧，源自於投資者日。我仍然認為回購可能會更高，因為考慮到 TRANZACT 的收益、Willis 的再盈利即將到來，而且你們仍然很強大——當前的現金狀況和自由現金流產生。那你能不能花點時間告訴我們你是如何想出這個15億美元？

And then in terms of deal activity, M&A right is now part of the equation. Is these smaller things? Just help us think through what transactions Willis might consider.

就交易活動而言，併購現在已成為其中的一部分。這些是較小的東西嗎？只需幫助我們思考 Willis 可能會考慮哪些交易。

Yeah, sure, Elyse. I mean, just to be clear, right, shareholder returns may be a central component of our capital allocation strategy. You could expect us to remain aggressive and opportunistic, right, as we believe our stock remains undervalued in the marketplace. We are not just holding ourselves to a specific target for the next few years as we do expect to deploy capital toward M&A and other organic opportunities.

是的，當然，伊莉絲。我的意思是，需要明確的是，股東回報可能是我們資本配置策略的核心組成部分。你可以期待我們保持積極進取和抓住機會，因為我們相信我們的股票在市場上仍然被低估。我們不只是為未來幾年設定一個特定的目標，因為我們確實希望將資本投入併購和其他有機機會。

Yeah. And for 2025, we're expecting share repurchases of approximately $1.5 billion, subject to market conditions and potential capital allocation to organic and inorganic investment opportunities. As we think about the pacing of that, we continuously monitor our cash levels and marketing conditions to take advantage of opportunities to accelerate repurchases if the opportunity presents itself.

是的。到 2025 年，我們預計股票回購額約為 15 億美元，具體取決於市場狀況以及對有機和無機投資機會的潛在資本配置。當我們考慮這一步驟時，我們會持續監控我們的現金水準和行銷條件，以便在有機會時利用機會加速回購。

And as we've talked about in the past, believe it's prudent to maintain an appropriate amount of financial flexibility, and I think that's what you're seeing there. And as we always have, we'll evaluate all of our options for capital allocation which include share buybacks, internal investments, and carefully considered strategic M&A to ensure that we're maximizing value creation for shareholders.

正如我們過去談到的，保持適當的財務靈活性是明智之舉，我認為這就是您所看到的。像往常一樣，我們將評估所有資本配置選項，包括股票回購、內部投資和經過深思熟慮的策略併購，以確保最大限度地為股東創造價值。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone. For the first question, I'll focus on free cash flow. It seems like there's going to be some moving pieces in 2025. So maybe -- you did reference some of them in your comments. Maybe we can go back and go into a little more detail on what's going to happen. And then also related to that, you have this longer-term objective of 16% -- on the conversion ratio. Can you just update us on your perspective for that?

大家早安。對於第一個問題，我將重點放在自由現金流。看起來 2025 年將會發生一些變動。所以也許——您確實在評論中提到了其中一些。也許我們可以回過頭來更詳細地談談將要發生的事情。與此相關的是，你的長期目標是將轉換率提高到 16%。您能否向我們介紹一下您對此的看法？

Yeah, sure. Absolutely, Greg. So as we discussed at Investor Day, we are intensely focused on improving our free cash flow margin by beginning to evolve our business mix, continuing to improve working capital management and also, of course, enhancing our operating margins. And we're very happy with the progress we've made enhancing our free cash flow profile during 2024.

是的，當然。當然，格雷格。正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們正致力於透過開始改進業務組合、繼續改善營運資本管理以及提高營業利潤率來提高我們的自由現金流利潤率。我們對 2024 年在改善自由現金流狀況方面取得的進展感到非常高興。

The free cash flow of $1.4 billion for the year is an increase of $184 million from last year. That was primarily driven by operating margin expansion and partially offset by cash outflows related to transformation and discretionary compensation payments, and all of that represented a free cash flow margin of 13.9%.

全年自由現金流14億美元，較去年增加1.84億美元。這主要得益於營業利潤率的擴大，部分抵消了與轉型和自由裁量薪酬支付相關的現金流出，所有這些都代表了 13.9% 的自由現金流利潤率。

In 2024, there was about 140-basis-point headwind from TRANZACT and approximately 320-basis-point headwind from Transformation spending. So normalizing our 2024 free cash flow margin for those factors, we delivered a free cash flow margin of around 18.4%, and we expect to continue to improve upon this.

2024 年，TRANZACT 帶來的阻力約為 140 個基點，轉型支出帶來的阻力約為 320 個基點。因此，在根據這些因素對 2024 年自由現金流利潤率進行標準化後，我們實現了約 18.4% 的自由現金流利潤率，並且我們預計這一水平將繼續提高。

As a reminder, starting in Q1, free cash flow and free cash flow margin will reflect cash outflows for capitalized software costs, and we recast a little bit historical non-GAAP measures in the appendix of the supplemental slides. And as we think about 2025, give a sale of TRANZACT, the wind down of the transformation-related cash spending and expected annual operating margin expansion, we expect to continue expanding our free cash flow margin on a reported and normalized basis.

提醒一下，從第一季開始，自由現金流和自由現金流利潤率將反映資本化軟體成本的現金流出，我們在補充幻燈片的附錄中重塑了一些歷史非 GAAP 指標。考慮到 2025 年，考慮到 TRANZACT 的出售、轉型相關現金支出的減少以及預期的年度營業利潤率擴大，我們預計將繼續在報告和正常化基礎上擴大我們的自由現金流利潤率。

More specifically, we expect cash outflows of around $90 million in 2025 from the settlement of accrued costs related to the Transformation program, which concluded in 2024. And in terms of cash taxes related to the Willis re-earnout, we expect a headwind there of up to around $90 million in 2025.

更具體地說，我們預計 2025 年將從 2024 年結束的轉型計畫相關的應計成本結算中獲得約 9,000 萬美元的現金流出。就與威利斯再獲利相關的現金稅而言，我們預計 2025 年的逆風將高達 9,000 萬美元左右。

Thanks for the detail. I guess the other question I had is sticking on the commentary you had. You mentioned in your prepared remarks foreign exchange headwinds. You also talked about the reinsurance joint venture. Could you provide us some perspective on the geography of where these are going to show up inside your reported financials? I guess the foreign exchange is going to be evenly spread out between the two segments, but I'm curious how the reinsurance headwind is going to show up in your financials. And is there any seasonality issues that we should be considering when we think about foreign exchange and reinsurance costs?

謝謝你的詳細說明。我想我的另一個問題就是堅持你的評論。您在準備好的發言中提到了外匯逆風。您還談到了再保險合資企業。您能否向我們提供一些關於這些內容在財務報告中出現的地理位置的觀點？我猜外匯將會均勻分佈在兩個部分之間，但我很好奇再保險的逆風將會如何在你們的財務狀況中體現出來。當我們考慮外匯和再保險成本時，是否應該考慮季節性問題？

Yes, sure. So in terms of geography on the reinsurance side, that will be below the line outside of operating margins. And as it relates to FX, our largest exposures are sterling, euro and Canadian dollar. In Q1, we expect an FX headwind of about $0.08 a share relative to the $0.18 for the full year.

是的，當然。因此，從再保險方面的地理位置來看，這將低於營業利潤率以外的線。就外匯而言，我們最大的風險敞口是英鎊、歐元和加幣。我們預計第一季的外匯逆風將達到每股 0.08 美元左右，而全年的外匯逆風則為每股 0.18 美元。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen 公司。

Hi, good morning. So in your strategy, with the departure of Michael Chang recently and then some big, big hires to replace him, and I think you added some other people, as I've heard. And then on the call, I heard -- and one of the kind of hallmarks while he was at WTW was to build out that specialization program. And Carl, I thought I heard you say that you want to expand specialization into new geographies.

嗨，早安。所以在你的策略中，隨著張德培最近離職，然後聘請了一些大人物來替代他，而且據我所知，我認為你還增加了一些其他人。然後在電話中，我聽說——他在 WTW 任職期間的標誌之一就是建立了那個專業化計劃。卡爾，我以為你說過你想將專業化擴展到新的地區。

So just to confirm, it sounds like specialization is still very prominent part of your plan. And could you elaborate on what you mean by new geographies, what areas that might be. And if that means that your net hiring will be pretty robust as a result.

因此，只是為了確認，聽起來專業化仍然是您計劃中非常突出的部分。您能否詳細解釋所謂的新地理區域以及可能包括哪些區域？如果這意味著你的淨僱傭量將因此變得相當強勁。

Sure. We are really pleased with the results we've been generating over the last few years from our specialization strategy. It has been a key driver of growth for R&B. We continue to see strong growth in our Specialty businesses and that outpaces our overall CRB average growth rate. We think our strategy sets us apart from others in the industry and in our entire business, not just the parts that face the market and structure along the industry verticals.

當然。我們對過去幾年來專業化策略所取得的成果感到非常滿意。它一直是 R&B 成長的主要動力。我們的專業業務持續保持強勁成長，並且超過了我們的整體 CRB 平均成長率。我們認為，我們的策略使我們在行業和整個業務中脫穎而出，而不僅僅是面向市場和沿行業垂直結構的部分。

And as part of this strategy, we have local specialties in each of our regions as their nuances and different dynamics depending on geography, right? For example, we have industry verticals in real estate and hospitality leisure in North America given large client base demand in that region. In Europe, where this sort of demand for commercial auto, we have local specialty teams for that particular segment.

作為這項策略的一部分，我們每個地區都有當地特色，因為每個地區都有其細微差別和不同動態，對嗎？例如，由於北美地區客戶群需求龐大，我們在房地產和飯店休閒領域擁有垂直產業。在歐洲，對於商用汽車有如此大的需求，我們針對這一特定領域設有本地專業團隊。

So we basically are expanding the Specialty strategy but customizing as we go for geographies. North America, which is our largest geography, was the natural place to start this but building on our strong heritage in our global lines of business centers in the UK. I mean, we're really pleased with the results we see from this because it's been successful, because it works for clients, right?

因此，我們基本上是在擴大專業策略，但隨著地域的不同而進行客製化。北美是我們業務最大的地區，自然而然地成為了我們開始這項計劃的起點，但我們的全球業務線在英國中心的強大傳統基礎上得以發展。我的意思是，我們對所看到的結果感到非常滿意，因為它是成功的，因為它對客戶有用，對吧？

And in North America, right, where the work is done to focus on our Specialty strategy -- and that's led to the continued growth in that region for the last years -- we are very excited to welcome Pat Donnelly to WTW, if that's what you're alluding to with your question. I mean, Pat is a highly respected and a competent leader, has a tremendous background and his leadership will help us drive growth and accelerate our Specialty strategy in the region. And we're looking forward to welcoming him during the second quarter.

在北美，我們的工作重點是專業策略 - 這也推動了該地區過去幾年的持續成長 - 如果您在問題中提到的是這個，我們非常高興地歡迎 Pat Donnelly 加入 WTW。我的意思是，帕特是一位備受尊敬且能力出眾的領導者，擁有豐富的背景，他的領導將幫助我們推動成長並加速我們在該地區的專業策略。我們期待在第二季迎接他的到來。

That's great. So that's exciting expansion. And then just thinking about what you've done in the last two, three years with hires, is there still a tailwind from that as those producers kind of mature into their new roles at WTW? Or has that generally kind of matured and your growth will be based on what you're doing now and expanding into new geographies and the like?

那太棒了。這是令人興奮的擴展。然後想想過去兩三年來您在招募員工方面所做的工作，隨著這些製作人在 WTW 的新角色中逐漸成熟，這是否仍然對您有幫助？或者說，總體而言，您的業務已經成熟，而您的成長將基於您現在所做的事情以及向新地區的擴張等等？

Yeah. It's Andrew. We're very pleased with the growth rates we've had in Risk & Broking, and CRB as well. And we do expect some continued productivity improvement from those cohorts of new hires over the last few years. And all of those new hires have contributed to the organic growth in the segment.

是的。是安德魯。我們對風險與經紀業務以及 CRB 的成長率感到非常滿意。我們確實預計過去幾年這些新員工的生產效率將持續提高。所有這些新員工都為該部門的有機成長做出了貢獻。

However, our competitive growth rates are a function of the efforts of all of our colleagues and the specialty strategy that's driving that. And even without the contribution from the recent hires, we would have had competitive growth rates.

然而，我們的競爭性成長率取決於我們全體同事的努力以及推動這項努力的專業策略。即使沒有最近招募的員工的貢獻，我們也會擁有具有競爭力的成長率。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

Hey, thanks. I had a question on the reinsurance JV. Could you just talk about the dollar amount, cash outflows that you'd expect there annually? And sorry if I miss this, but if you could just confirm that that would not impact the free cash flow.

嘿，謝謝。我對再保險合資企業有一個疑問。您能否談談預計每年的現金流出金額是多少？如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但如果你能確認這不會影響自由現金流。

Yes, correct. That would be sitting outside of free cash flow. It would show up in the investing section of the statement of cash flows. And in terms of overall size, you can think of it as a bolt-on acquisition over a several year period as we continue to fund the start-up.

是的，正確。這將不屬於自由現金流。它將出現在現金流量表的投資部分。就整體規模而言，您可以將其視為幾年內的附加收購，因為我們將繼續為這家新創公司提供資金。

Yeah. I mean, the timing, right, this is essentially organic, right? We don't expect to achieve steady state growth rates and full margin potential for the next several years. And the amount of the investment will depend on the size of the opportunity we see in front of us.

是的。我的意思是，時機對吧，這本質上是有機的，對吧？我們預計未來幾年不會實現穩定的成長率和全部的利潤潛力。而投資的金額則取決於我們所看到的機會的大小。

Okay, got it. That's helpful. And I just wanted to ask on Health, excluding the book of business sales, it sounds like organic growth was still 15%, which is much stronger than peers. Just curious what is driving that growth and if any of the large new business wins that you had touched upon there is kind of contributing to any of the forward growth.

好的，明白了。這很有幫助。我只是想問健康問題，除去業務銷售額，聽起來有機成長仍然有 15%，這比同行要強勁得多。只是好奇是什麼推動了這種成長，以及您提到的任何大型新業務的成功是否對未來的成長有所貢獻。

Yeah, sure. So you're right, excluding the book of business activity growth for the quarter was 16% within Health. And that revenue growth was led by increased project work and brokerage income in North America as well as the continuous expansion of our global benefits management client portfolio and our international in Europe geographies. And consistent with what we shared at Investor Day, continue to expect high single-digit growth for this business.

是的，當然。所以你是對的，不包括健康業務活動成長，本季健康業務的成長率為 16%。收入成長主要得益於北美專案工作和經紀收入的增加，以及我們全球福利管理客戶組合和歐洲國際業務的持續擴張。與我們在投資者日分享的內容一致，我們繼續預期該業務將實現高個位數成長。

The market demand overall remains strong given healthcare inflation and employment levels. And while we expect growth rates to be more balanced in 2025, the stronger comparable in the second and fourth quarter could lead to some lumpiness on a quarter-by-quarter basis throughout 2025.

考慮到醫療通膨和就業水平，整體市場需求仍然強勁。雖然我們預計 2025 年的成長率將更加均衡，但第二季和第四季的強勁可比性可能會導致 2025 年全年各季度的成長率出現一些波動。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

Hey, good morning. First one I have for you is on just the M&A environment. It seems like maybe opportunities with larger companies that are maybe getting too large to stay in the private market are accelerating. And I'd just be interested in, if that's what you're seeing, if you have interest in doing something larger and just how to think about that in the context of what I thought was a pretty sizable buyback actually.

嘿，早安。我要為您講的第一個問題與併購環境有關。看起來，那些規模過大而無法留在私人市場的大公司的機會正在加速出現。我只是感興趣的是，如果這就是您所看到的，如果您有興趣做一些更大的事情，以及如何在我認為實際上是相當可觀的回購的背景下考慮這一點。

Yeah. I won't comment on what other companies may be thinking of in terms of their strategy. So I'll probably focus a bit on how we're thinking about this.

是的。我不會評論其他公司在策略方面的想法。所以我可能會重點關註一下我們是如何看待這個問題的。

Look, over the last three years, we've solidified our infrastructure and strengthened the company. We have the right business focus and more efficient processes and tools to integrate potential targets with WTW and deliver long-term value. We look at our strategy to -- as one trying to achieve three key objectives, right?

你看，在過去三年裡，我們鞏固了基礎設施並增強了公司實力。我們擁有正確的業務重點和更有效率的流程和工具，可以將潛在目標與 WTW 結合併實現長期價值。我們將我們的策略視為試圖實現三個關鍵目標，對嗎？

First, improve our business mix to enhance our broking and wealth presence. In key markets, while strengthening our offers -- our efforts in high growth and high margin rates are core business. Second, we want to expand our reach across the insurance value chain designed to further accelerate our growth and fill gaps, our capabilities, and footprint. And third, target businesses that would help enhance our margins and free cash flow profile, right?

首先，改善我們的業務組合，以增強我們的經紀和財富影響力。在關鍵市場，我們在加強報價的同時，對高成長和高利潤率的努力是我們的核心業務。其次，我們希望擴大我們在保險價值鏈的影響力，旨在進一步加速我們的成長並填補空白，提升我們的能力和足跡。第三，目標業務將有助於提高我們的利潤率和自由現金流狀況，對嗎？

I'm not going to comment on hypothetical targets, but we're looking for firms that could be a good fit culturally with minimal business disruption, and of course, satisfy the criteria I just laid out. So we're going to be thoughtful and disciplined in our approach in that environment.

我不會對假設的目標發表評論，但我們正在尋找在文化上能夠很好地適應且對業務影響最小的公司，當然，還要滿足我剛才列出的標準。因此，在這樣的環境下，我們會深思熟慮並採取嚴謹的方法。

Thanks. That's helpful. And maybe for the second one, just your thoughts on the pricing environment and how we should think about that into 2025 compared to 2024? And I know you guys have given high-level guidance that sort of includes all of that, but maybe just some extra texture around the pricing environment and how that's evolving.

謝謝。這很有幫助。對於第二個問題，您對定價環境有何看法，以及與 2024 年相比，我們應該如何看待 2025 年的定價環境？我知道你們已經給出了包括所有這些內容的高層指導，但也許只是圍繞定價環境及其演變方式的一些額外內容。

I assume you're referring to commercial risk when you talked about the pricing investment.

我認為您談到定價投資時指的是商業風險。

Yeah, typically risk and broking, yeah, sorry.

是的，通常是風險和經紀，是的，抱歉。

Okay, yeah. I just wanted to be clear. I mean, the markets further stabilized in the fourth quarter. I mean, most lines of insurance are sort of positive outcomes for our clients and insurers are continuing to look for growth, and that's leading to increased competition in the market. The markets remain especially advantageous for well risk managed, non-cap driven and loss-free clients.

好的，是的。我只是想說清楚。我的意思是，市場在第四季進一步穩定。我的意思是，大多數保險業務都為我們的客戶帶來了積極的結果，保險公司也持續尋求成長，這導致了市場競爭的加劇。對於風險管理良好、非上限驅動和無損失的客戶來說，市場仍然特別有利。

From a geographic point of view, Asia-Pacific and Latin America are leading the market shift towards softening where local market supply and the international insurers or markets compete and that leads better results for our clients. Most property lines continue to be stable to improving for our clients with some rate reductions available depending on the risk profile. Rate reductions are still available, but decelerating in cyber and kind of showing professional lines. And the global casualty market, in contrast, remains rather firm with the North American market, maybe except for workers' comp still challenging.

從地理角度來看，亞太地區和拉丁美洲正引領市場向軟化方向轉變，當地市場供應與國際保險公司或市場相互競爭，這將為我們的客戶帶來更好的績效。大多數房地產業務持續保持穩定或改善，為客戶提供根據風險狀況可享受的一定利率降低。費率仍有所降低，但在網路上速度有所減緩，並且呈現出專業路線。相較之下，全球傷亡市場與北美市場相比仍然保持堅挺，也許除了工傷補償仍然具有挑戰性之外。

Overall, we don't view rate as a significant headwind or tailwind across our R&B portfolio in terms of how it impacts us this past quarter or during the year. Our growth was driven primarily by high retention rates in new business as well as the investments we talked about earlier and we've made over the last few years. And the reorientation of the R&B business towards specialization, we think that's really made a difference for us and will continue to differentiate us.

總體而言，就上個季度或全年而言，我們並不認為利率對我們的 R&B 投資組合造成重大的阻力或阻力。我們的成長主要得益於新業務的高保留率以及我們之前談到的和過去幾年所做的投資。我們認為，R&B 業務向專業化轉型確實為我們帶來了不同，並將繼續使我們與眾不同。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey, good morning. This is Charlie on for Mike. Just going back to the reinsurance joint venture, Carl mentioned the focused approach. Can you add some color on what areas you see the opportunity? And is there anything more you can share about the terms whether in terms of financial commitments or a buyout option or anything else we should be thinking about?

嘿，早安。這是 Charlie 代替 Mike 上場。回到再保險合資企業，卡爾提到了重點關注的方法。您能否詳細說明您認為有哪些領域存在機會？您還能分享更多關於條款的內容嗎，無論是關於財務承諾、買斷選擇權或其他我們應該考慮的內容？

Yeah. We're not going to get into the specific terms of the JV agreement in terms of timing and things of that nature. I think as we alluded to, the structure provides us with flexibility to deploy capital if and when it makes sense to continue to expand that just based on the size of the opportunity that we see will take some time for us to reach critical mass and have an impact there. There is the opportunity and potential for WTW to wholly own the asset at some point in the future, if that's what makes sense. And so we're really excited about the business opportunity there. I think it will contribute a lot to the platform and looking forward to talking more about it as it evolves.

是的。我們不會深入討論合資協議中關於時間安排和其他類似事項的具體條款。我認為，正如我們所提到的那樣，這種結構為我們提供了部署資本的靈活性，如果繼續擴大是有意義的，那麼僅僅基於我們看到的機會的規模，我們就需要一些時間才能達到臨界規模並產生影響。如果合理的話，WTW 有機會和潛力在未來某個時候完全擁有該資產。因此，我們對那裡的商機感到非常興奮。我認為它將為平台做出很大貢獻，並期待在其發展過程中對其進行更多討論。

Thanks. And Andrew, you mentioned an opportunity with taxes to maybe get a more favorable rate. Can you add some color around that as well?

謝謝。安德魯，您提到了透過納稅也許可以獲得更優惠的稅率。您還可以在其周圍添加一些顏色嗎？

Yeah, sure. We're always looking for opportunities to be efficient from a tax perspective. Pillar 2 is still being implemented globally, and there are still some moving pieces there. So I think there could be some slight upside to the guide that we gave.

是的，當然。我們一直在尋找從稅收角度提高效率的機會。第二支柱目前仍在全球範圍內實施，並且仍有一些未完成的部分。因此我認為我們給出的指南可能會略有上漲。

Jon Newsome, Piper Sandler.

喬恩‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Hi, good morning. It's actually Paul Newsome. But you picked up my first name first. I was hoping you could add, similar to what you talked about with the risk and broking comment about the sort of environmental environment for pricing and competition. We hear a lot about health insurance inflation but it's kind of tough to translate that back to your Health and Wealth and Career business as well. But maybe if you could kind of expand upon that, is there a way that you [did this within] Risk and Broking business?

嗨，早安。其實是保羅·紐瑟姆。但你先記住了我的名字。我希望您能補充一些類似於您所談論的風險和經紀評論，關於定價和競爭的環境。我們聽到很多有關健康保險通膨的消息，但將其轉化到您的健康、財富和職業業務中卻有點困難。但是也許如果您可以擴展這一點，有沒有辦法在風險和經紀業務中做到這一點？

Sure. Obviously, there, we have a pretty good span of businesses in HWC. Let me start with Health. Healthcare inflation has a direct impact on premiums paid for fully insured plans. Those are prevalent outside North America and in the Health/Middle markets in North America. Health and care inflation has an indirect impact on self-insured plans, which are nearly universal among large markets in North America.

當然。顯然，我們在 HWC 的業務範圍相當廣泛。讓我先從健康開始。醫療通膨對全額保險計劃支付的保費有直接影響。這些在北美以外地區以及北美的健康/中型市場中很受歡迎。健康和照護通膨對自保計畫有間接影響，自保計畫在北美大型市場幾乎普遍存在。

During periods of high healthcare inflation, the sponsors of self-insured plans often engage in new ways to keep cost in check, which can generate opportunities for us. We have a relatively smaller portion of our Health business outside North America and in North America middle market compared to others. That being said, we are very pleased with Health's organic revenue growth for '24 and healthcare inflation was one, but only one of the factors that helped deliver that result, and we expect that trend to continue, which leads to our outlook for high single-digit growth prospects for that business for '25 based on our expected pipeline and commission streams.

在醫療費用高企的時期，自保計畫的出資者往往會採取新的方法來控製成本，這可以為我們創造機會。與其他公司相比，我們的健康業務在北美以外和北美中端市場的份額相對較小。話雖如此，我們對健康部門24年有機收入的增長感到非常滿意，醫療保健通膨是其中之一，但只是實現這一結果的因素之一，我們預計這一趨勢將繼續下去，這導致我們根據預期的渠道和佣金流對該業務25年的高個位數增長前景進行展望。

Moving over to Wealth, right, the Wealth business has got several components. Our pension consulting business is largely annuity-based with long-term relationships that can stretch multiple decades. The drivers there for growth are often regulatory activity which could drive demand, and then derisking of pension plans or what you would call pension risk transfer.

轉到財富，對吧，財富業務有幾個組成部分。我們的退休金諮詢業務主要以年金為基礎，長期合作關係可以延續數十年。推動其成長的往往是能夠推動需求的監管活動，然後是退休金計畫的風險降低或所謂的退休金風險轉移。

On the PRT side, we continue to see strong demand for consulting, the interest rate environment that drives demand for pension de-risking strategies, but there are also strategies that drive -- sorry, factors that drive activity, such as the level of surplus assets in the system, we think that the overall volume of annuity buy-ins and buyouts in the US is expected to be similar compared to prior years.

在 PRT 方面，我們繼續看到對諮詢的強勁需求，推動對退休金去風險策略需求的利率環境，但也有一些策略推動活動——抱歉，推動活動的因素，例如係統中的剩餘資產水平，我們認為美國年金買入和買斷的總量預計與前幾年相似。

On the Career side, this is probably the most economically sensitive of our businesses, but one we have taken substantial activity over the past years to de-risk a bit with respect to activity. A couple of things to think about. One is we've been focused on rebalancing our portfolio. We still have meaningful project work, but we now have a greater balance of product, software, and annuity-type relationships, those who intend to be recurring and multiyear. That includes things like compensation benchmarking, compensation committee appointments, and our digital solutions like Embark and Engage.

在職業方面，這可能是我們業務中對經濟最敏感的，但在過去幾年中，我們已經採取了大量活動來降低活動方面的風險。有幾件事需要考慮。一是我們一直致力於重新平衡我們的投資組合。我們仍然有有意義的專案工作，但現在我們在產品、軟體和年金型關係（那些打算重複性和多年期性的關係）方面擁有更大的平衡。其中包括薪酬基準、薪酬委員會任命以及我們的數位解決方案（如 Embark 和 Engage）。

Second is our disciplined focus. If we were simply responding to RFPs, we wouldn't be seeing the growth we are. We're out there in the marketplace and generating activity. Like the Wealth business, regulatory change and what this can (inaudible) for a company is rethinking their talent strategy drives demand for our business here.

第二是我們的紀律嚴明。如果我們只是響應 RFP，我們就不會看到現在的成長。我們出現在市場上並開展活動。就像財富業務一樣，監管變化以及這對公司的影響（聽不清楚）是重新考慮他們的人才策略推動了我們業務的需求。

And then lastly, benefits delivery and outsourcing. These are typically multiyear contracts with a very, very high renewal rate. We do manage this business not just for growth but for profitable growth. So if we see competitive activity driving down price beyond the point where we think we can achieve a good return on a contract, I mean, we'll pass on the opportunity. So our growth there, we'd like to think of it is measured by the opportunity out there. That's a quick survey of HWC.

最後，福利交付和外包。這些通常都是多年期合約，續約率非常非常高。我們管理這項業務不僅是為了成長，而且是為了獲利成長。因此，如果我們發現競爭活動將價格壓低到我們認為無法從合約中獲得良好回報的水平，那麼我們就會放棄這個機會。因此，我們希望我們在那裡的成長是根據那裡的機會來衡量的。這是對 HWC 的快速調查。

That's great. Maybe for a second question, we could switch to your middle-market property casualty business. You've long had a middle-market platform. I'm just curious, at this point, are there geographies within that middle-market platform that are particularly strong or particularly lacking in general as you look towards trying to expand that middle-market platform?

那太棒了。對於第二個問題，我們可以轉到您的中端市場財產意外險業務。你們早已擁有中型市場平台。我只是很好奇，在這一點上，當您試圖擴展中端市場平台時，中端市場平台內是否存在特別強大或特別缺乏的地區？

First off, from a performance perspective, we've seen good growth across the portfolio. We have a business that includes lots of in-market companies across the world. And we've been growing all geographies over the past several years. So we're quite happy with that strategy.

首先，從業績角度來看，我們看到整個投資組合都實現了良好的成長。我們的業務包括遍布全球的許多市場公司。過去幾年來，我們的業務一直在所有地區擴張。所以我們對於這個策略非常滿意。

Now in terms of the opportunity, there are geographies we see where we are relatively underway. We highlighted the US, which is the world's largest insurance market as a place where we see significant opportunity and we will be addressing that both organically as we have been for the past several years as well as looking at the inorganic potential there as well.

現在就機會而言，我們看到有些地區的進展相對較快。我們重點關注了美國，它是世界上最大的保險市場，我們看到了巨大的機遇，我們將像過去幾年一樣，既採取有機方式解決這一問題，同時也關注那裡的無機潛力。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Andrew, the 18.4% normalized free cash, is that recapped or the capitalized software cost. It looks like it's about 110 bps. Does that already include that headwind?

安德魯，18.4% 的標準化自由現金是重新計算或資本化的軟體成本。看起來大約是 110 bps。這已經包括逆風了嗎？

Yeah. No. So the 18.4% that I referenced is on a current calculation basis, not the new go forward, which will start in 2025 with Q1.

是的。不。因此，我提到的 18.4% 是基於目前的運算基礎，而不是新的成長目標，新的成長目標將從 2025 年第一季開始。

So as a baseline, we might take that 110 bps out, call it, [17.3%]. Is that fair?

因此，作為基準，我們可能會將這 110 個基點取出，稱之為[17.3%]。這樣公平嗎？

Yeah, that's fair on a normalized basis, correct.

是的，從正常化角度而言這是公平的，正確。

Okay. And then, Carl, you mentioned how political regulatory activity may be helpful for your business. Could you expand on that a little bit?

好的。然後，卡爾，您提到了政治監管活動可能對您的業務有幫助。能稍微詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. I mean, when -- the regulatory environment has changed, clients are faced with potential change to their business, and they turn to us for evaluation of their options, understanding of what others can do and implementation of the change. That's a formula that's worked very well for us for a very long time, and we expect that to continue in the future.

是的。我的意思是，當監管環境發生變化時，客戶的業務面臨潛在的變化，他們向我們尋求評估他們的選擇，了解其他人可以做什麼以及實施變革。這個模式在我們很長一段時間內都非常有效，我們期望這種模式在未來也能繼續有效。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Yeah. Thank you very much. Carl, I really appreciate your around the world visit with Paul. I want to talk about that a little bit. In terms of the economic sensitivity of the business, is it more revenue sensitivity? Or is it margin sensitivity? You have a business with a lot of very talented people who in hard time just can't produce as much, but you want to keep them for the recovery. How should we see recessionary impact on revenues versus recessionary impact on margins?

是的。非常感謝。卡爾，我非常感謝您與保羅一起進行環球旅行。我想稍微談談這一點。就業務的經濟敏感度而言，是否更多的是收入敏感度？還是邊際敏感度？你的企業擁有許多非常有才華的員工，他們在困難時期無法創造那麼多成果，但你希望留住他們，以備經濟復甦。我們該如何看待經濟衰退對收入的影響以及經濟衰退對利潤的影響？

Yeah. Really good question. First of all, I guess I'd point out, this is a business that if you look at our history, we've been able to produce revenue growth in all sorts of different economic conditions. But yes, there is economic sensitivity to the overall revenue in the firm, and you can look to sort of prior price environment and see we've produced growth, but it's been more muted.

是的。真是個好問題。首先，我想指出的是，如果你回顧我們的歷史，你會發現我們在各種不同的經濟條件下都能夠實現收入成長。但確實，公司的整體收入對經濟很敏感，你可以看看之前的價格環境，你會發現我們確實實現了成長，但成長速度比較緩慢。

However, in terms of looking at our bottom line, a substantial chunk of our compensation is variable compensation. And just as our employee, our colleagues share in the upside, they help us manage through the downside as well. And so we've been able to deliver still or more stable operating income results through thick and thin as a result.

然而，從我們的底線來看，我們的薪酬中很大一部分是可變薪酬。正如我們的員工、同事分享成功的喜悅一樣，他們也會幫助我們度過難關。因此，無論何時何地，我們都能夠實現更穩定的營業收入。

Great. And in terms of two things that we are sort of worried about, there's some concern about the potential for recession. There's also maybe more at the forefront, it concerns about inflation. Confronted with both recession and inflation simultaneously, did the two net each other out in the way that your revenues are generated? Or is one a bigger impact on your faith than the other?

偉大的。就我們擔心的兩件事而言，有人擔心經濟衰退的可能性。或許還有更重要的問題，那就是對通貨膨脹的擔憂。同時面臨經濟衰退和通貨膨脹，這兩者是否對你們的收入產生影響？或者其中一個對你的信仰的影響比另一個更大？

Yeah. Remember those fabulous 70s, I guess, is what you're saying, thinking about climates like that. I think that there is a different -- some of the parts that are across the business can work in very different ways. I mean, inflation will affect the price of the insurance as well as asset values that will help us in terms of our commission-based income in both segments as well as the asset-based fees we may be getting in within the Wealth business. It does affect, of course, our compensation costs. But as I just alluded to, we've got some control over that.

是的。我想，說到回憶美好的 70 年代，想想那樣的氣候，你大概就是這個意思。我認為存在差異——業務中的一些部分可以以非常不同的方式運作。我的意思是，通貨膨脹將影響保險價格和資產價值，這將有助於我們在兩個部門的佣金收入以及我們在財富業務中可能獲得的基於資產的費用。當然，它確實會影響我們的賠償成本。但正如我剛才提到的，我們對此有一定的控制力。

And we've also been able to manage for the past couple of decades through efforts like our right -- real estate right workforce location programs. To be able to help manage our biggest chunk of costs across the organization, we just [comp at] that. So we think that because of the flexibility we've engendered in this organization, increasingly so over the last three years, we're pretty well positioned to weather all sorts of economic and climates, including stagflation.

在過去的幾十年裡，我們也透過房地產合適的勞動力定位計畫等努力，取得了管理成果。為了能夠幫助管理整個組織的最大一塊成本，我們只是[比較]了這一點。因此，我們認為，由於我們在這個組織中體現出的靈活性，尤其是過去三年來日益增強的靈活性，我們已經準備好抵禦各種經濟環境，包括停滯性通膨。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning. I had a bigger picture margin question just around the natural operating leverage for the enterprise, just sort of growing revenues faster than expenses. I believe in 2021, and I know I'm going back, but back then, you guys had called out around 70 basis points a year of natural operating leverage, but the mix has changed a bit since then. So I'm wondering if that still stands as a good baseline to consider before thinking about some of the other moving pieces here in 2025.

嘿，早安。我對利潤率有一個更大的疑問，就是圍繞著企業的自然營業槓桿，也就是收入成長速度快於支出成長速度。我相信在 2021 年，我知道我會回去，但那時，你們已經要求每年約 70 個基點的自然經營槓桿，但自那時以來，組合發生了一些變化。所以我想知道，在考慮 2025 年的其他一些變動因素之前，這是否仍然是一個值得考慮的良好基準。

Yeah. I think that may have been relevant at that time with that business mix as you suggested. I think there were obviously several components that are no longer part of the business portfolio. So I do think the best way to think about it now is what I was alluding to earlier, which is the 100 basis points on average over the next three years in R&B, continued incremental margin improvement in HWC, which already has very high margins and then factoring in the tailwind at the enterprise level from the divestiture of TRANZACT. So I think if you think about that, weight the portfolio, that's probably the best way to think about sort of the margin expansion opportunity going forward.

是的。我認為這可能與您當時提到的業務組合有關。我認為顯然有幾個組成部分不再屬於業務組合。因此，我確實認為，現在最好的思考方式就是我之前提到的，即未來三年 R&B 的利潤率平均為 100 個基點，HWC 的利潤率將繼續逐步提高，而 HWC 的利潤率已經非常高，然後考慮到 TRANZACT 剝離對企業層面的順風。所以我認為，如果你考慮到這一點，權衡投資組合，這可能是思考未來利潤擴大機會的最佳方式。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just wanted to follow up on what sort of hiring and what sort of employment growth within the Willis employee base you guys saw in 2024. I think it was like 2% to 3% in 2023, if I look at just headcount growth. How was that in 2024? And is that sort of like a good run rate to think about how you guys are expecting to grow headcount and maybe more specifically, producers into 2025?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後，我只是想跟進一下你們在 2024 年看到的 Willis 員工群體的招募類型和就業成長類型。如果只看員工人數成長，我認為到 2023 年這一比例將會達到 2% 到 3%。2024 年的情況如何？這是否是一個很好的運作率，可以考慮一下你們預計到 2025 年員工數量會如何增加，更具體地說，生產商數量會如何增加？

Yeah. It's got a bad way to think about it. I mean, philosophically, we look at it this way. We had a focused effort several years ago to replenish our talent base, and we talk a little bit about the effect that's had on our revenue trajectory. But these days, our current hiring efforts are more opportunistic than more strategic with the goal of enhancing our ability to achieve sustainable, profitable growth and create value.

是的。這是一種很糟糕的思考方式。我的意思是，從哲學角度來看，我們是這樣看待這個問題的。幾年前，我們曾經專注於補充人才庫，現在我們來談談這對我們的營收軌跡的影響。但目前，我們目前的招募工作更多的是機會主義的，而非策略性的，目的是提高我們實現永續、獲利成長和創造價值的能力。

And so with respect to our hiring and overall expense base, there are any incremental investments, whether they're in talent or they're in technology aren't going to prevent us from hitting our margin targets. We expect to get to those with the hiring we contemplate.

因此，就我們的招募和整體費用基礎而言，任何增量投資，無論是人才投資還是技術投資，都不會阻止我們實現利潤目標。我們希望透過我們所考慮的招募來吸引那些想要加入的人。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Two small modeling questions. First, I'm a little unclear. When you talk about the $1.5 billion of share repurchases, is that the baseline assuming no inorganic activity, but if there is any (inaudible) that goes down, or does that $1.5 billion take some into account?

兩個小建模問題。首先，我有點不清楚。當您談到 15 億美元的股票回購時，這是假設沒有無機活動的基礎嗎，但如果有任何（聽不清楚）下降，或者這 15 億美元是否考慮到了一些因素？

Yes. The $1.5 billion is the baseline and depending on the size of any inorganic opportunities that could come down if we find an attractive return opportunity to invest that -- those funds in aside from share repurchases.

是的。15 億美元是基準，取決於任何無機投資機會的規模，如果我們發現有吸引力的回報機會來投資這些資金（除股票回購外），那麼這些資金可能會下降。

Okay, thanks for the clarification. And then I think, Carl, you mentioned some timing issues in Career. Is there any way of ballparking the impact on either revenues or margins?

好的，謝謝你的澄清。然後我想，卡爾，你提到了職業生涯中的一些時間問題。有沒有什麼方法可以估算對收入或利潤的影響？

Well, I mean -- we talked in the prepared remarks, right? The projects that were delayed from Q4 to Q1, they're sold, right? We fully expect those to start this quarter. More broadly, our pipeline remains robust. Our proactive discussions with clients and prospects continue to turn up many that our clients what are help to address. And I talked a little bit about the balance we have between products and software and consulting that's designed to be -- deliver a thing more level pattern growth.

嗯，我的意思是——我們在準備好的發言中已經談過了，對吧？從第四季推遲到第一季的專案已經售出了，對嗎？我們充分預期這些工作將在本季開始。更廣泛地說，我們的產品線依然強勁。我們與客戶和潛在客戶的積極討論不斷發現許多可以幫助客戶解決的問題。我稍微談了一下我們在產品、軟體和諮詢之間所取得的平衡，其目的是實現更平穩的模式成長。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Carl Hess for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想請卡爾·赫斯作最後發言。

Thank you, again, all of you for joining us. I once again want to extend my thanks and appreciation to all our WTW colleagues globally. Their dedication and commitment has made 2024 such a success. I look forward to maintaining our momentum in 2025 as we continue to implement our updated strategy and deliver for our clients. Thank you and have a great day.

再次感謝大家的加入我們。我再次向全球所有 WTW 同事表達感謝和讚賞。他們的奉獻和承諾使得 2024 年取得如此大的成功。我期待在 2025 年保持我們的良好發展勢頭，繼續實施更新後的策略並為客戶提供服務。謝謝您，祝您有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。