(WTW) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to the wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that is issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next 3 months on WTW's website.

早上好。歡迎參加 WTW 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。請參閱 wtwco.com，了解今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充信息。今天的通話正在錄音中，並將在未來 3 個月內發佈在 WTW 網站上。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors, Investors should review the forward-looking statements section of the earnings press release issued this morning, as well as, other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings.

今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果存在重大差異，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。如需對這些及其他風險因素進行更詳細的討論，投資者應查看今天上午發布的收益新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述部分，以及最新 10-K 表格和其他 Willis Towers Watson 中披露的其他內容美國證券交易委員會備案。

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在電話會議期間，可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關非公認會計準則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的最新收益發布和其他材料。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 WTW 首席執行官卡爾·赫斯 (Carl Hess)。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。感謝您參加 WTW 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官安德魯·克拉斯納 (Andrew Krasner)。

We continue to see our strategic initiatives resonate strongly in the marketplace as reflected in the 7% organic revenue growth we recorded in the second quarter. This solid result reflected continued strong growth across our entire portfolio of businesses despite significant challenges from outsized book of business sales in each of our segments in the prior year. Excluding book of business activity, organic revenue growth at the enterprise level would have been 9%. We're very encouraged by the sustained top line momentum and the positive response we've seen from clients to our investments in talented technology across all our businesses.

我們繼續看到我們的戰略舉措在市場上引起強烈反響，第二季度有機收入增長 7% 就反映了這一點。這一堅實的業績反映出我們整個業務組合的持續強勁增長，儘管上一年我們每個部門的業務銷售規模都面臨著巨大的挑戰。不包括業務活動賬面，企業層面的有機收入增長率將為 9%。我們對持續的營收勢頭以及客戶對我們所有業務的人才技術投資的積極反應感到非常鼓舞。

At the same time, we faced margin headwinds from those investments as well as wage inflation in prior year book sales that limited our progress on driving margin expansion and earnings growth this quarter. The continued success of our transformation program, which exceeded our expectations yet again partially offset these headwinds. All in all, adjusted operating margin declined by 90 basis points for the quarter, which resulted in adjusted earnings per share of $2.05. Though we had a decline in adjusted operating margin this quarter, as we've said before, our progress in margin expansion won't always be linear. However, we don't expect margin declines in any full year period.

與此同時，我們面臨這些投資帶來的利潤率阻力，以及上一年圖書銷售的工資上漲，限制了我們本季度推動利潤率擴張和盈利增長的進展。我們的轉型計劃持續取得成功，超出了我們的預期，再次部分抵消了這些不利因素。總而言之，本季度調整後營業利潤率下降了 90 個基點，導致調整後每股收益為 2.05 美元。儘管本季度調整後營業利潤率有所下降，但正如我們之前所說，我們在利潤率擴張方面的進展並不總是線性的。然而，我們預計任何全年期間的利潤率都不會下降。

Earlier this morning, we reset our 2024 adjusted operating margin and adjusted EPS targets. These updates reflect our margin and earnings performance to date and as we've called out in the previous quarters, the pension income headwinds that based on current market conditions, we do not expect to subside. Importantly, they also include our current assessment of the opportunities we see ahead of us with the benefit of being halfway through our 3-year plan.

今天早上早些時候，我們重置了 2024 年調整後的營業利潤率和調整後的每股收益目標。這些更新反映了我們迄今為止的利潤率和盈利表現，正如我們在前幾個季度所指出的那樣，根據當前的市場狀況，我們預計養老金收入的不利因素不會消退。重要的是，它們還包括我們目前對我們看到的機遇的評估，以及我們三年計劃已過半的好處。

We lowered our 2024 target for adjusted operating margin to 22.5% to 23.5% from 23% to 24%. While some of the change stems from the slower pace at which we generate operating leverage, it primarily reflects our opportunistic decision to further invest in talent and other key strategic initiatives, especially in our Risk & Broking segment. This incremental investment will further strengthen our long-term market position and drive continued strong organic growth beyond the 2024 forecast period.

我們將 2024 年調整後營業利潤率目標從 23% 至 24% 下調至 22.5% 至 23.5%。雖然部分變化源於我們產生運營槓桿的速度較慢，但這主要反映了我們進一步投資於人才和其他關鍵戰略舉措的機會主義決定，特別是在我們的風險與經紀業務領域。這項增量投資將進一步加強我們的長期市場地位，並推動 2024 年預測期之後持續強勁的有機增長。

To elaborate a bit on that decision, I want to say a few words about where our R&B segment stands today and the opportunity going forward. Our differentiated service offering, underpinned by our ability to adapt to our clients' changing needs, creates an incredibly compelling value proposition and the success of this strategy in R&B so far is evident through the strong organic growth we've been able to deliver. Our focus on specialization, innovation and top quality client service has generated substantial momentum and opportunities we did not have 18 months ago.

為了詳細說明這一決定，我想談談我們的 R&B 部門目前的狀況以及未來的機遇。我們的差異化服務以我們適應客戶不斷變化的需求的能力為基礎，創造了令人難以置信的引人注目的價值主張，迄今為止，這一戰略在 R&B 領域的成功通過我們能夠實現的強勁有機增長顯而易見。我們對專業化、創新和高質量客戶服務的關注已經產生了 18 個月前所沒有的巨大動力和機會。

Earlier this month, our Aerospace team won back the Airbus account, one of the largest in the sector on the back of our strengthened value proposition. And that success is not just happening in Aerospace, our global lines of business, such as P&C, Marine and Financial solutions have continued to deliver meaningfully above market growth, including double-digit growth in the second quarter. In North America, the build-out of 12 identified industry divisions continues at pace with colleagues and infrastructure being aligned, and we expect most of this to be completed by year-end. Our traction in the marketplace has shown us there are even more opportunities here to deliver solid organic growth well into the future.

本月早些時候，我們的航空航天團隊憑藉強化的價值主張贏回了空客客戶，這是該行業最大的客戶之一。這種成功不僅僅發生在航空航天領域，我們的全球業務線，例如財產保險、船舶和金融解決方案，繼續顯著高於市場增長，包括第二季度實現兩位數增長。在北美，12 個已確定的行業部門的建設仍在繼續，同事和基礎設施也在不斷調整，我們預計其中大部分將在年底前完成。我們在市場上的吸引力向我們表明，這裡有更多機會在未來實現穩健的有機增長。

But a fixed strategy is simply not an option in today's ever-changing risk landscape. To capitalize on these opportunities and meet client-specific needs, we're continuing to advance our specialization strategy and develop innovative products and services, which will distinguish us in a way to best attract clients and talent. This requires developing differentiated offerings, increasing strategic partnerships and expanding our reach through platforms like MGAs, MGUs and affinity products. Of course, high-quality talent is essential to drive these initiatives and turn our vision into a reality. And we see our rejuvenated strategy and independent brand become a load start for that talent, which will further fuel our success.

但在當今不斷變化的風險形勢下，固定策略根本不是一個選擇。為了利用這些機會並滿足客戶的特定需求，我們將繼續推進我們的專業化戰略並開發創新產品和服務，這將使我們以最好的方式吸引客戶和人才，從而脫穎而出。這需要開發差異化產品、加強戰略合作夥伴關係並通過 MGA、MGU 和親和產品等平台擴大我們的影響力。當然，高素質人才對於推動這些舉措並將我們的願景變為現實至關重要。我們看到我們的複興戰略和獨立品牌成為人才的負載起點，這將進一步推動我們的成功。

We do appreciate the need to strike a balance between investing for incremental growth in the long term and capturing savings in the near term. While this investment in talent will partially offset the savings from our transformation program and tailwinds from higher investment income and lower pension service costs between now and 2024, we expect these efforts will drive greater operating leverage over the long term as productivity improves and we realize more efficiency from increased scale. Running a successful business is never a straight line. It's a journey filled with triumph and challenges, and we've experienced both over the last 18 months.

我們確實意識到需要在長期增量增長投資和短期儲蓄之間取得平衡。雖然這種對人才的投資將部分抵消我們轉型計劃帶來的節省以及從現在到 2024 年更高的投資收入和更低的養老金服務成本帶來的推動力，但我們預計，隨著生產力的提高，這些努力將在長期內推動更大的運營槓桿，並且我們意識到更多規模擴大帶來的效率。經營一家成功的企業從來都不是一條直線。這是一段充滿勝利和挑戰的旅程，過去 18 個月我們都經歷過。

On one hand, the operating margin has benefited from our accelerated progress on the transformation program, interest income has been higher and our pension-related service costs have been more favorable than originally expected. At the same time, macroeconomic conditions have dampened demand for interest rate-sensitive businesses, such as M&A, and the inflationary environment has put pressure on our operating costs, driving up wages and travel and entertainment. We are also focused on implementing cost-saving measures primarily focused on eliminating nonessential travel.

一方面，營業利潤率受益於我們轉型計劃的加速推進，利息收入更高，養老金相關服務成本也比原來預期更有利。與此同時，宏觀經濟狀況抑制了併購等利率敏感業務的需求，通脹環境給我們的運營成本帶來壓力，推高了工資和旅行娛樂。我們還致力於實施主要旨在消除不必要的旅行的成本節約措施。

While we've seen some progress in generating margin expansion from R&B, we know there is more to do, we remain confident that the right path to delivering margin expansion includes both driving organic revenue growth through our strategic investments and executing on transformation program savings and efficiency measures.

雖然我們已經看到 R&B 在實現利潤增長方面取得了一些進展，但我們知道還有更多工作要做，但我們仍然相信，實現利潤增長的正確途徑包括通過我們的戰略投資推動有機收入增長以及執行轉型計劃節省和支出效率措施。

As a core part of our strategic decision to invest further in our specialization strategy and our talent base, we are excited to welcome Lucy Clarke as the global leader of Risk & Broking in the third quarter of 2024. Lucy's committed to specialization, exceptional client service and data and analytics, all directly aligned with WTW's competitive advantages and what we're doing in this space, making her the right person to accelerate the execution of our strategy. She has extraordinary market presence, a proven track record of delivering operational and financial results and an intense focus on talent.

作為我們進一步投資專業化戰略和人才基礎的戰略決策的核心部分，我們很高興歡迎 Lucy Clarke 在 2024 年第三季度擔任風險與經紀業務的全球領導者。Lucy 致力於專業化、卓越的客戶服務數據和分析，所有這些都與 WTW 的競爭優勢以及我們在該領域所做的事情直接相關，使她成為加速執行我們戰略的合適人選。她擁有非凡的市場影響力、在提供運營和財務業績方面的良好記錄以及對人才的高度關注。

We are delighted she is joining our team, and I look forward to welcoming Lucy to our team in the third quarter of 2024. Until then, Adam Garrard will continue to lead the segment. And after Lucy's arrival, Adam will become the Chairman of Risk and Broking.

我們很高興她加入我們的團隊，我期待著在 2024 年第三季度歡迎 Lucy 加入我們的團隊。在此之前，Adam Garrard 將繼續領導該細分市場。露西到來後，亞當將成為風險與經紀業務的主席。

Now let me shift gears back to our updated 2024 adjusted EPS target. The revised target of $15.40 to $17 reflects the sizable pension income headwinds we've discussed on previous calls, a modestly higher expected tax rate and the lower adjusted operating margin. The revised target also reflects a more narrow and precise range than our original figures given that we're halfway through our target period of 3 years.

現在讓我回到我們更新的 2024 年調整後每股收益目標。修訂後的目標為 15.40 美元至 17 美元，反映了我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的巨大養老金收入阻力、預期稅率適度較高以及調整後營業利潤率較低。鑑於我們的 3 年目標期已過半，修訂後的目標也反映了比我們最初的數字更窄、更精確的範圍。

I've already talked about the drivers behind our margins. So let me take a minute to cover the other 2 items. The most significant driver influencing our change to our EPS target is a sizable decline in expected pension income since we set our original 2024 target almost 2 years ago. We originally expected pension income to contribute $2 to $2.50 to adjusted EPS.

我已經談到了我們利潤率背後的驅動因素。讓我花一點時間來介紹其他兩項。自我們大約 2 年前設定最初的 2024 年目標以來，影響我們改變 EPS 目標的最重要驅動因素是預期養老金收入大幅下降。我們最初預計養老金收入將為調整後每股收益貢獻 2 至 2.50 美元。

As we've communicated previously, the increase in interest rates and decline in capital market returns have created significant headwinds to pension income dynamics. As a result, we now expect pension income to contribute $0.35 to $0.85, less than half of our original estimate to adjusted EPS in 2024. The change in expected pension income accounts for approximately $1.65 of the overall change in EPS target. We continue to expect pension income of $112 million in 2023 and we'll update you on our 2024 pension expectations during our fourth quarter call after the remeasurement process.

正如我們之前所傳達的，利率上升和資本市場回報下降給養老金收入動態帶來了重大阻力。因此，我們現在預計養老金收入將貢獻 0.35 美元至 0.85 美元，不到我們最初估計的 2024 年調整後每股收益的一半。預期養老金收入的變化約佔每股收益目標總體變化的 1.65 美元。我們仍然預計 2023 年養老金收入為 1.12 億美元，我們將在重新衡量過程後的第四季度電話會議上向您通報 2024 年養老金預期的最新情況。

The second driver impacting the EPS target change stems from the modest increase in tax rate due to our updated estimates of future tax rates based on legislative changes. We expect the U.K. corporate tax rate increase will have a modest impact starting in 2023. While we continue to evaluate the OECD/G20 guidance on the Pillar 2 global minimum tax released earlier this year, we expect the legislative changes may further increase the rate in 2024 and forward.

影響每股收益目標變化的第二個驅動因素是，由於我們根據立法變化對未來稅率的最新估計，稅率略有上升。我們預計，從 2023 年開始，英國企業稅率上調將產生適度影響。雖然我們繼續評估今年早些時候發布的 OECD/G20 關於第二支柱全球最低稅的指導意見，但我們預計立法變化可能會進一步提高英國企業稅率。 2024 年及以後。

Now before I hand it over to Andrew, I want to step back for a moment and reflect on the progress of WTW since the tumult of 2021. In 2021, WTW had $9 billion of revenue and adjusted operating margin of 19.9% and EPS of $11.60. And the full impact of the termination of the business combination was not reflected in the company's financial results in that time. That occurred in 2022 when organic growth slowed, book of business sale activity spiked, and we need to make substantial investment in both talent and transformation-related activities to position the company for future growth.

現在，在將其交給 Andrew 之前，我想先回顧一下 WTW 自 2021 年動盪以來的進展。2021 年，WTW 的收入為 90 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率為 19.9%，每股收益為 11.60 美元。而終止企業合併的全部影響並未反映在公司當時的財務業績中。這種情況發生在 2022 年，當時有機增長放緩，業務銷售活動激增，我們需要對人才和轉型相關活動進行大量投資，以使公司為未來增長做好準備。

Since that time, we've stabilized our business, we build our talent base, significantly strengthened organic revenue growth, optimize capital management return significant capital to shareholders and are transforming and simplifying our company to drive greater profitability. We are in a far better place from where we started.

從那時起，我們穩定了我們的業務，建立了人才基礎，顯著加強了有機收入增長，優化了資本管理，向股東返還了大量資本，並對我們的公司進行了轉型和簡化，以提高盈利能力。與我們開始的地方相比，我們處於一個更好的地方。

We remain committed to our strategic priorities of grow, simplify and transform and we are delivering meaningful strategic progress against these initiatives. We can see their contributions to our performance, including organic growth in line with our payers and $277 million of transformation savings. We remain committed to improving our core operating results to reach our revised 2024 goals and drive long-term earnings growth.

我們仍然致力於增長、簡化和轉型的戰略重點，並且我們正在根據這些舉措取得有意義的戰略進展。我們可以看到他們對我們業績的貢獻，包括與我們的付款人一致的有機增長以及 2.77 億美元的轉型節省。我們仍然致力於改善我們的核心經營業績，以實現修訂後的 2024 年目標並推動長期盈利增長。

I want to thank our colleagues for their dedication and performance this quarter. We are truly appreciative of their continued dedication to our vision and their relentless focus on our strategic priorities to grow, simplify and transform.

我要感謝我們的同事本季度的奉獻和表現。我們衷心感謝他們對我們願景的持續奉獻，以及對我們發展、簡化和轉型的戰略重點的不懈關注。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

然後，我會將電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, everyone. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before we delve into the financials, I want to provide some additional color on our free cash flow to help paint a clearer picture of our core free cash flow performance and our outlook.

謝謝，卡爾。大家，早安。感謝大家今天加入我們。在我們深入研究財務狀況之前，我想對我們的自由現金流提供一些額外的說明，以幫助更清楚地了解我們的核心自由現金流表現和前景。

First, I want to explain why we are focused on free cash flow margin or free cash flow as a percentage of revenue rather than some of the other potential metrics. The noncash nature of our pension income can distort various free cash flow conversion calculations, whether you're calculating free cash flow conversion as a percentage of net income, adjusted net income or adjusted EBITDA. We, therefore, think free cash flow as a percentage of revenue or free cash flow margin is a clearer and more meaningful metric to track free cash flow.

首先，我想解釋為什麼我們關注自由現金流利潤率或自由現金流佔收入的百分比，而不是其他一些潛在指標。我們養老金收入的非現金性質可能會扭曲各種自由現金流轉換計算，無論您是將自由現金流轉換計算為淨收入、調整後淨收入還是調整後 EBITDA 的百分比。因此，我們認為自由現金流佔收入或自由現金流利潤率的百分比是跟踪自由現金流的更清晰、更有意義的指標。

Next, I'd like to remind you of the nonrecurring items that impacted our 2022 cash flow performance. In 2022, our free cash flow margin decreased to 8%, reflecting strong revenue growth and margin expansion partially offset by some significant nonrecurring items, including delayed cash tax payments for the 2021 gains recorded in connection with the sale of Willis Re and the deal termination fee, realized losses on foreign currency hedges and onetime retention and executive compensation costs. Adjusted for these onetime headwinds, our 2022 free cash flow margin would have been approximately 14%. We consider this a normalized baseline for 2022. Adding the approximately 200 basis point increase in transformation-related spend for 2023 gets us to approximately 12% free cash flow margin, which we think is a reasonable guidepost for 2023.

接下來，我想提醒您影響我們 2022 年現金流表現的非經常性項目。 2022 年，我們的自由現金流利潤率下降至 8%，反映出強勁的收入增長和利潤率擴張，但被一些重大非經常性項目部分抵消，包括因出售 Willis Re 和交易終止而記錄的 2021 年收益的延遲現金稅支付費用、已實現的外匯對沖損失以及一次性保留和高管薪酬成本。根據這些一次性不利因素進行調整後，我們 2022 年的自由現金流利潤率約為 14%。我們認為這是 2022 年的標準化基準。加上 2023 年轉型相關支出增加約 200 個基點，我們的自由現金流利潤率約為 12%，我們認為這是 2023 年的合理指導方針。

Looking beyond 2023, we expect to see free cash flow margin increase driven by improved cash conversion in our TRANZACT business and the abatement of transformation-related spend. Collectively, these items are expected to contribute over 400 basis points to our free cash flow margin over the long term. Starting from the 12% free cash flow margin expected for 2023, this expansion in free cash flow margin on top of our expected organic revenue growth should drive strong long-term growth in free cash flow. Additionally, we expect incremental upside driven by improved profitability and working capital improvement actions. Thus, we think 16% plus is a reasonable long-term guidepost.

展望 2023 年以後，我們預計，由於 TRANZACT 業務現金轉換的改善以及轉型相關支出的減少，自由現金流利潤率將有所增加。總的來說，從長遠來看，這些項目預計將為我們的自由現金流利潤率貢獻超過 400 個基點。從 2023 年預計的 12% 自由現金流利潤率開始，除了我們預期的有機收入增長之外，自由現金流利潤率的擴張應會推動自由現金流的長期強勁增長。此外，我們預計盈利能力的提高和營運資本改善行動將帶來增量增長。因此，我們認為 16% 以上是一個合理的長期指導方針。

I'd like to spend a few minutes expanding on how we expect each of these components to contribute to greater free cash flow and improved working capital over the long term. Let's start with improved cash conversion at TRANZACT. About 8% of our revenue comes from TRANZACT, which has tripled in size since we acquired it in Q3 2019. However, the cash conversion dynamics of this business are different than the rest of our businesses. Q4 is TRANZACT's largest revenue quarter, and that revenue consists of both fees and commissions. The commissions, which reflect both our initial placement plus estimated future renewals can take up to 5 to 6 years in total for us to collect depending on the product. Meanwhile, we incur significant upfront cash costs to place the policies, creating a working capital headwind as the business grows.

我想花幾分鐘來擴展一下我們期望這些組成部分如何為更大的自由現金流和長期改善的營運資本做出貢獻。讓我們從 TRANZACT 改進的現金轉換開始。我們約 8% 的收入來自 TRANZACT，自我們於 2019 年第三季度收購以來，該公司的規模擴大了兩倍。然而，該業務的現金轉換動態與我們其他業務不同。第四季度是 TRANZACT 收入最大的季度，該收入包括費用和佣金。佣金反映了我們的初始安置和預計的未來續訂，根據產品的不同，我們總共可能需要 5 到 6 年的時間才能收取佣金。與此同時，我們需要承擔大量的前期現金成本來製定保單，從而隨著業務的增長而產生營運資金阻力。

In 2022, growth in TRANZACT created an approximately 200 basis point headwind on our free cash flow margin. Over the last few years of rapid growth in that business, we have generated a long-term contract asset, which is essentially a large long-term receivable. We expect to collect this over multiple years as policies are renewed. As our TRANZACT business continues to mature and cash collections from earlier periods outpaced the upfront cash outflows incurred in connection with the continued top line growth, we expect this working capital headwind to subside and over time become a tailwind and begin contributing positively to free cash flow margin.

2022 年，TRANZACT 的增長對我們的自由現金流利潤率造成了約 200 個基點的阻力。經過過去幾年該業務的快速增長，我們產生了長期合同資產，本質上是一筆巨額的長期應收款。隨著政策的更新，我們預計會在多年內收集這些數據。隨著我們的 TRANZACT 業務不斷成熟，早期的現金收回超過了與收入持續增長相關的前期現金流出，我們預計這種營運資本逆風將消退，隨著時間的推移將成為順風，並開始為自由現金流做出積極貢獻利潤。

Our overall individual marketplace strategy combines TRANZACT with its strong revenue growth prospects and current lower cash flow generation with a mature business of Extend Health, which has lower revenue growth, but strong cash flow. Together, the 2 businesses give us an overall Medicare operation with a strong growth profile and positive cash flow as was the case for 2022.

我們的整體個人市場戰略將 TRANZACT 及其強勁的收入增長前景和當前較低的現金流生成與 Extend Health 的成熟業務相結合，後者的收入增長較低，但現金流強勁。這兩項業務共同為我們帶來了整體醫療保險業務，與 2022 年的情況一樣，具有強勁的增長勢頭和正現金流。

Moving on to the impact of our Transformation Program. We made substantial progress on the program in 2022 and have accelerated that progress in 2023. Funding the Transformation Program required approximately $200 million in cash outflow in 2022, which translated to a roughly 230 basis point headwind to our free cash flow margin. Investment in the Transformation Program will continue to pressure our free cash flow until it is complete at the end of 2024. But beginning in 2025, the abatement of program-related spending will drive an increase in free cash flow margin.

接下來討論我們的轉型計劃的影響。我們在 2022 年在該計劃上取得了實質性進展，並在 2023 年加快了這一進展。為轉型計劃提供資金需要在 2022 年約 2 億美元的現金流出，這意味著我們的自由現金流利潤率下降了約 230 個基點。轉型計劃的投資將繼續給我們的自由現金流帶來壓力，直到 2024 年底完成為止。但從 2025 年開始，計劃相關支出的減少將推動自由現金流利潤率的增加。

The last point I'd like to cover is the upside from greater profitability. We continue to expect to drive margin expansion from current levels to our target range over the next 6 quarters. As our adjusted operating margin grows, so too will our free cash flow margin. In addition, we expect some of our specific transformation program initiatives to have a positive, but more modest impact on free cash flow margin. Our finance and operational transformation initiatives include a number of tactical working capital improvement opportunities, such as centralizing and standardizing our billing and collections processes, expanding automation capabilities, and capturing long-term structural and contractual improvements to the cash aspects of how our businesses operate.

我想談的最後一點是盈利能力提高的好處。我們繼續預計未來 6 個季度將利潤率從當前水平擴大到我們的目標範圍。隨著我們調整後的營業利潤率增長，我們的自由現金流利潤率也會增長。此外，我們預計我們的一些具體轉型計劃舉措將對自由現金流利潤率產生積極但較為溫和的影響。我們的財務和運營轉型計劃包括許多戰術性營運資本改進機會，例如集中和標準化我們的計費和收款流程、擴大自動化能力，以及對我們業務運營方式的現金方面進行長期結構和合同改進。

Also, the transformation of our real estate footprint should reduce our long-term CapEx needs. Together, all of these actions, along with the continued adjusted operating margin expansion beyond 2024 should drive incremental improvements in our free cash flow margin above the roughly 400 basis points we've quantified.

此外，我們房地產業務的轉型應該會減少我們的長期資本支出需求。總之，所有這些行動，加上 2024 年之後持續調整的營業利潤率擴張，應該會推動我們的自由現金流利潤率逐步提高，超過我們量化的大約 400 個基點。

Turning to our results for the quarter. Our second quarter revenue was up 7% on an organic basis. Excluding book of business activity, organic revenue growth at the enterprise level would have been 9%. Our Transformation Program delivered $53 million of incremental annualized savings during the second quarter. This brings the total to $128 million in cumulative annualized savings this year, far exceeding our original target of $100 million of incremental savings for 2023.

轉向我們本季度的業績。我們第二季度的收入有機增長了 7%。不包括業務活動賬面，企業層面的有機收入增長率將為 9%。我們的轉型計劃在第二季度實現了 5300 萬美元的增量年度節省。這使得今年的累計年化節省總額達到 1.28 億美元，遠遠超過我們最初設定的 2023 年增量節省 1 億美元的目標。

Accordingly, we're raising our guidance on cumulative run rate transformation savings actioned by the end of 2023 to $160 million. The additional transformation savings we've identified also support an increase to the total annual cost savings we expect the program to deliver by the end of 2024 from over $360 million to $380 million.

因此，我們將到 2023 年底實現的累計運行率轉型節省指導提高至 1.6 億美元。我們確定的額外轉型節省還支持我們預計該計劃到 2024 年底實現的年度總成本節省從 3.6 億美元以上增加到 3.8 億美元。

I will now discuss our detailed segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis unless specifically stated otherwise. The Health, Wealth and Career segment generated revenue growth of 5% on both an organic and constant currency basis compared to the second quarter of last year. The segment had solid organic revenue growth despite significant headwinds from book of business activity in the prior year, which negatively impacted organic revenue growth by 2 percentage points. We continue to see growth opportunities across the portfolio of businesses and expect that they will continue their growth trajectory for the rest of the year.

我現在將討論我們詳細的部門結果。請注意，為了提供與前期的可比性，除非另有明確說明，否則有關我們分部業績的所有評論都將基於有機基礎。與去年第二季度相比，健康、財富和職業部門的有機收入和固定貨幣收入增長了 5%。儘管上一年的業務活動存在重大阻力，該部門的有機收入增長穩健，對有機收入增長產生了 2 個百分點的負面影響。我們繼續看到整個業務組合的增長機會，並預計它們將在今年剩餘時間內繼續保持增長軌跡。

Revenue for health increased 4% for the quarter or 9% when excluding the impact of book of business activity in the prior year, primarily due to natural portfolio growth and new client appointments in international and Europe and higher levels of project work at brokerage income in North America. Wealth grew 5% in the second quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher levels of retirement work in North America and Europe. Our investments business also contributed to organic revenue growth with new client acquisitions and higher fees related to value-added services.

本季度健康業務收入增長 4%，若排除上一年業務活動賬簿的影響，則增長 9%，這主要是由於國際和歐洲的投資組合自然增長和新客戶任命，以及經紀收入項目工作水平的提高。北美。第二季度財富增長了5%。這一增長主要歸因於北美和歐洲退休工作水平的提高。我們的投資業務還通過新客戶收購和與增值服務相關的更高費用為有機收入增長做出了貢獻。

Career delivered 4% growth in the quarter, driven by increased demand for reward-based advisory services and higher compensation survey participation. Benefits Delivery & Outsourcing generated 7% growth in the quarter. The increase was driven by strength in individual marketplace with growth from higher volumes and placements of Medicare Advantage and Life policies as well as increased project activity in outsourcing.

由於對基於獎勵的諮詢服務的需求增加以及薪酬調查參與度的提高，職業生涯在本季度實現了 4% 的增長。福利交付和外包在本季度實現了 7% 的增長。這一增長是由個人市場的實力推動的，其中包括醫療保險優勢和人壽保單的數量和投放量的增加以及外包項目活動的增加。

HWC's operating margin decreased 40 basis points from the prior year second quarter to 18.3%. This margin decrease was primarily due to the impact of book of business activity, partially offset by transformation savings.

HWC 的營業利潤率較去年第二季度下降 40 個基點至 18.3%。利潤率下降主要是由於業務活動賬面的影響，部分被轉型節省所抵消。

Risk & Broking revenue was up 6% on an organic basis and on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year second quarter. Risk & Broking had strong organic revenue growth despite significant book of business headwinds and excluding the impact from book of business settlements, Risk & Broking grew 10%. Corporate Risk & Broking had another strong quarter and continued the positive growth trajectory we have seen over the last quarters with an organic revenue increase of 7%.

與去年第二季度相比，風險與經紀業務收入在有機基礎和固定匯率基礎上增長了 6%。儘管業務賬面面臨重大阻力，風險與經紀業務仍實現強勁的有機收入增長，並且排除業務結算賬面影響，風險與經紀業務增長了 10%。企業風險與經紀業務又一個強勁的季度，延續了我們在過去幾個季度看到的積極增長軌跡，有機收入增長了 7%。

Excluding book of business activity, CRB grew at 11% with double-digit growth in all geographies. This outstanding result is primarily driven by strong new business, continued improvement of our client retention and strong contributions of 13% organic growth from our specialty lines like Marine, Financial Solutions and large and complex P&C.

不包括商業活動賬簿，CRB 增長了 11%，所有地區均實現兩位數增長。這一出色的業績主要得益於強勁的新業務、客戶保留率的持續提高以及我們的專業產品線（如船舶、金融解決方案以及大型複雜財產險和意外險）對 13% 有機增長的強勁貢獻。

Our specialty lines of business are a critical area for us, and we are making meaningful investments to position us for long-term success, and we are growing at a much faster pace in these lines of business. Furthermore, while rate increases continue to have a positive impact, they had a more moderate impact compared to prior year. Interest income was up $9 million for the quarter due to higher rates.

我們的專業業務線對我們來說是一個關鍵領域，我們正在進行有意義的投資，以使我們能夠取得長期成功，並且我們在這些業務線中的增長速度要快得多。此外，雖然加息繼續產生積極影響，但與上一年相比，其影響較為溫和。由於利率上升，本季度利息收入增加了 900 萬美元。

As noted in our earnings release and as a result of the cessation of the co-broking agreement with Gallagher, interest income directly associated with Risk & Broking fiduciary funds will be allocated to the segment beginning in third quarter of 2023. These amounts were previously allocated to the corporate segment. I would just point out that this will be done on a prospective basis only, and there is no impact to the Q2 numbers.

正如我們在收益發布中所指出的，由於與 Gallagher 的聯合經紀協議終止，與風險與經紀信託基金直接相關的利息收入將從 2023 年第三季度開始分配給該部門。這些金額之前已分配到企業部門。我只想指出，這僅是在前瞻性的基礎上進行的，對第二季度的數據沒有影響。

North America had a strong quarter due to new business and increased retention. Europe also had solid new business performance across most product lines, including P&C, Marine, Aerospace and Financial Solutions. International also contributed to organic growth led by Latin America.

由於新業務和保留率的增加，北美季度表現強勁。歐洲在大多數產品線（包括財產險、船舶、航空航天和金融解決方案）上也取得了穩健的新業務業績。國際也為以拉丁美洲為首的有機增長做出了貢獻。

In the Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 3% over the prior year period, driven by increased sales in Technology Solutions and higher project activity. R&B's operating margin was 16.1% for the second quarter compared to 19.7% in the prior year second quarter. Margin headwinds reflected the impact of the gain on sale from book of business activity in the prior year, along with the adverse timing impact from prior year incentive credits that have no impact on full year margins, but negatively impacted the quarter.

在保險諮詢和技術業務中，由於技術解決方案銷售額的增加和項目活動的增加，收入比上年同期增長了 3%。 R&B 第二季度的營業利潤率為 16.1%，而去年第二季度的營業利潤率為 19.7%。利潤率逆風反映了上一年業務活動賬面銷售收益的影響，以及上一年激勵信貸的不利時間影響，這些信貸對全年利潤率沒有影響，但對本季度產生了負面影響。

However, we saw an increase in our comp and ben run rate due to strategic investment hires. These key hires have begun to contribute to our performance in a meaningful way as exemplified by the strong organic growth for the first half of the year. We continue to expect a ramp-up in production which we anticipate will cover the increase in expenses. We are also facing expense headwinds due to the increased client activity and inflationary increases on travel, entertainment and marketing that we are actively managing with strict cost management actions, which we expect to yield a greater benefit in the second half of the year. Partially offsetting these margin headwinds were transformation savings that continue to contribute as planned as well as the impact of interest income.

然而，由於戰略投資聘用，我們的薪酬和本運行率有所增加。這些關鍵員工已開始以有意義的方式為我們的業績做出貢獻，上半年強勁的有機增長就是例證。我們繼續預計產量的增加將彌補支出的增加。由於客戶活動增加以及旅行、娛樂和營銷方面的通貨膨脹增加，我們還面臨著費用阻力，我們正在通過嚴格的成本管理行動積極管理這些支出，我們預計這將在下半年產生更大的效益。繼續按計劃貢獻的轉型節省以及利息收入的影響部分抵消了這些利潤率不利因素。

Turning back to enterprise level results. Our adjusted operating margin was 14.6%, a 90 basis point decline over prior year, primarily a result of costs related to employee headcount increases and inflation as well as headwinds from the margin impact book of business sales in the prior year. The decline in margin was partially offset by transformation savings as well as the impact of interest income. The net result was adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.05.

回到企業級結果。我們調整後的營業利潤率為 14.6%，比上一年下降 90 個基點，這主要是由於與員工人數增加和通貨膨脹相關的成本以及上一年業務銷售利潤影響賬簿的不利因素。利潤率的下降被轉型儲蓄以及利息收入的影響部分抵消。調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.05 美元。

Foreign exchange had a de minimis impact on EPS for the second quarter. Assuming today's rates continue for the remainder of the year, we continue to expect a foreign currency headwind on adjusted earnings per share of $0.05 for the year. Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 19.8% versus 10.5% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 23.7% compared to 20.5% in the prior year reflecting the nonrecurring nature of discrete tax benefits reflected in the prior year rate.

外匯對第二季度每股收益的影響微乎其微。假設今年剩餘時間繼續保持目前的利率，我們繼續預計今年調整後每股收益將面臨 0.05 美元的外匯逆風。本季度我們的美國 GAAP 稅率為 19.8%，而上年同期為 10.5%。我們本季度調整後的稅率為 23.7%，而上一年為 20.5%，反映了上一年稅率中反映的離散稅收優惠的非經常性性質。

Our strong balance sheet gives us continued confidence in our ability to execute a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances capital return to shareholders with internal investments and strategic M&A to deploy our capital in the highest return opportunities. During the quarter, we paid $90 million in dividends and repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for $350 million. Given our confidence in achieving the plan we've laid out, we continue to view share repurchases as an attractive use of capital to create long-term shareholder value. We also actively manage our leverage profile by issuing $750 million of new debt in May, and a portion of those proceeds will be used to pay our debt with an upcoming maturity in the third quarter.

我們強大的資產負債表使我們對執行嚴格的資本配置策略的能力始終充滿信心，該策略可以平衡股東的資本回報與內部投資和戰略併購，從而將我們的資本部署在最高回報的機會上。本季度，我們支付了 9000 萬美元的股息，並以 3.5 億美元的價格回購了約 150 萬股股票。鑑於我們對實現所製定的計劃充滿信心，我們繼續將股票回購視為創造長期股東價值的一種有吸引力的資本用途。我們還通過在 5 月份發行 7.5 億美元的新債務來積極管理我們的槓桿狀況，其中一部分收益將用於償還第三季度即將到期的債務。

We generated free cash flow of $350 million for the second quarter of 2023, compared to free cash flow of $198 million in the prior year. The improvement of $152 million is primarily due to the non-recurrence of payments made in the prior year for certain discretionary compensation and taxes for onetime gains recorded in connection with the Willis Re sale and the income receipt related to deal termination. These tailwinds were partially offset by increased transformation program-related costs.

2023 年第二季度，我們產生了 3.5 億美元的自由現金流，而上一年的自由現金流為 1.98 億美元。增加 1.52 億美元主要是由於上一年不再重複支付某些酌情補償以及與 Willis Re 銷售相關的一次性收益稅以及與交易終止相關的收入。這些有利因素被轉型計劃相關成本的增加部分抵消。

Overall, while we recognize we have more to do, we continue to be encouraged by the meaningful traction we are getting with clients through our strategic initiatives. Delivering strong organic revenue growth is a prerequisite for sustainably growing margins, EPS and free cash flow. We are confident in our market position and in our ability to deliver on the improvement opportunities we see today.

總體而言，雖然我們認識到我們還有更多工作要做，但通過我們的戰略舉措對客戶產生的有意義的吸引力仍然讓我們感到鼓舞。實現強勁的有機收入增長是利潤率、每股收益和自由現金流持續增長的先決條件。我們對我們的市場地位以及我們實現今天看到的改進機會的能力充滿信心。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question is on the 2024 guidance. Carl, obviously, last year, you guys pulled lowered guidance for Russia, there were some changes to free cash flow. Just trying to get a sense like why is this the last cut? I mean I imagine maybe you guys went through and kind of stress tested all the components of guidance to put forth something that you won't have to revise again in January with fourth quarter earnings. But any thoughts there?

我的第一個問題是關於 2024 年指導方針的。卡爾，顯然，去年你們降低了對俄羅斯的指導，自由現金流發生了一些變化。只是想了解一下為什麼這是最後一次剪輯？我的意思是，我想也許你們已經對指導的所有組成部分進行了壓力測試，以提出一些您不必在 1 月份對第四季度收益進行再次修改的內容。但有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Good morning Elyse. Obviously, we prefer never to be revising at all. But we do try and take a measured approach. And when we finally think that look, there's, as we said before, no path that we could see towards our guidance, we want to be upfront with that. As we looked into this quarter, we saw on the pension side, we just didn't see a path to pension income to be at the levels that we had thought it might be going to '24. We thought it was the time to take a look and revise the EPS target.

是的。早上好，愛麗絲。顯然，我們寧願根本不修改。但我們確實嘗試採取謹慎的方法。當我們最終想到這一點時，正如我們之前所說，我們看不到通往我們指導的道路，我們希望坦白這一點。當我們研究本季度時，我們在養老金方面看到，我們只是沒有看到養老金收入達到我們預期的 24 世紀水平的途徑。我們認為現在是審視並修改每股收益目標的時候了。

On the margins, right, the new target really reflects our decision to further invest in talent and the key strategic initiatives that Andrew described, especially in R&B, because we think we are in a fabulous position to capitalize on growth opportunities. We're continuing to advance our specialization strategy and develop innovative products and services to further differentiate our offerings and position ourselves to attract the best clients and talent, that is working. We are doubling down on it.

從邊緣看，右圖，新目標確實反映了我們進一步投資於人才的決定以及安德魯所描述的關鍵戰略舉措，特別是在 R&B 領域，因為我們認為我們處於利用增長機會的絕佳位置。我們將繼續推進我們的專業化戰略，開發創新產品和服務，以進一步差異化我們的產品，並定位自己以吸引最好的客戶和人才，這正在發揮作用。我們正在加倍努力。

And then my follow-up, Carl, would be on the margin comment, right? So like you guys have had success with your savings program, but it doesn't seem like that's coming into numbers even though you provided up the target. So is that benefiting margins? Is it more coming later than expected? I just would have thought that, that could have absorbed and helped offset some of the impact of the incremental hiring, right, that you're attributing the lower margin, too.

然後我的後續行動，卡爾，將出現在邊緣評論上，對吧？就像你們的儲蓄計劃取得了成功一樣，但即使您提供了目標，這似乎也沒有實現。那麼這對利潤率有利嗎？是不是比預想的要晚一些？我只是認為，這可能會吸收並幫助抵消增量招聘的一些影響，對吧，你也將較低的利潤率歸因於這一點。

Elyse, it's Andrew. No, it is absolutely helping offset or mitigate some of the continued and then the increased planned investment. And I think what you're seeing is there's some more pressure on the Risk & Broking margins. And while we're incredibly happy with the progress and the organic growth within that business, we recognize there's more to do on margin expansion, both in the short term and the long term. I want to reassure you that we know where the margin drags are and already taking action to address those.

伊麗絲，是安德魯。不，它絕對有助於抵消或減輕一些持續的和隨後增加的計劃投資。我認為你所看到的是風險和經紀利潤面臨著更大的壓力。雖然我們對該業務的進展和有機增長感到非常滿意，但我們認識到，無論是短期還是長期，在利潤率擴張方面還有更多工作要做。我想向您保證，我們知道利潤率下降的原因，並且已經採取行動解決這些問題。

Let me walk you through them and I'll start with the short term. So on a year-over-year basis, the most significant headwind was the book of business sales, right? And that's about 270 of the 360 basis point decline within the quarter. In the second half, we anticipate similar levels of book sales as last year. The quarterly pacing of those may vary, but second half over second half should be pretty similar. The rest is attributable to some short-term headwinds, partially offset by the savings from transformation.

讓我帶您了解一下它們，我將從短期開始。因此，與去年同期相比，最顯著的阻力是企業銷售賬面，對吧？這大約是本季度 360 個基點下降中的 270 個基點。我們預計下半年的圖書銷售水平與去年相似。這些季度的節奏可能會有所不同，但下半年應該非常相似。其餘的則歸因於一些短期阻力，但部分被轉型節省的成本所抵消。

The short-term headwinds are from T&E and our continued investments in talent. In T&E, we're seeing the effects of inflation as well as the increase in travel post COVID. We're working to manage this by implementing mandates around essential travel, fare caps, things of that nature. We've already seen some improvement in the T&E costs from these actions and expect that to accelerate during the second half of the year.

短期阻力來自差旅及娛樂以及我們對人才的持續投資。在差旅和娛樂方面，我們看到了通貨膨脹的影響以及新冠疫情后旅行增加的影響。我們正在努力通過實施有關基本旅行、票價上限等此類性質的規定來管理這一問題。我們已經看到這些行動帶來了差旅費用的一些改善，並預計下半年這種情況會加速。

On talent, the short-term margin headwinds are just from the gradual and lumpy ramp in productivity for new hires. We continue to expect a ramp in that production, which we do anticipate is going to cover the investments and yield a greater benefit going forward. So as a result of all that, we see the current margin headwinds as temporary and do continue to expect margin expansion within the Risk & Broking and the enterprise on an annual basis.

在人才方面，短期利潤率的不利因素只是來自新員工生產力的逐漸且不穩定的增長。我們仍然預計產量會增加，我們確實預計這將覆蓋投資並在未來產生更大的效益。因此，我們認為當前的利潤率阻力是暫時的，並繼續預計風險與經紀業務和企業的利潤率每年都會擴大。

Yes. Let me just sort of leverage a little bit on that, Andrew. I mean, first of all, our investments in the talent have actually been paying off in excess of what we had projected, to date, not that we're fully there yet, but the pace is actually in excess of kind of our original expectations. So that does encourage us. But as I look sort of a bit further than the rest of this year, right? I mean -- what we're doing is saying we think we actually have a great opportunity to deepen and broaden what we do. We see the talent we're able to attract and that encourages us, actually, as I said before, to double on what we're trying to go here.

是的。安德魯，讓我在這方面發揮一點作用。我的意思是，首先，我們對人才的投資實際上已經超出了我們的預期，到目前為止，並不是說我們已經完全實現了目標，但速度實際上超出了我們最初的預期。這確實鼓勵了我們。但我的眼光比今年剩下的時間要遠一點，對嗎？我的意思是——我們正在做的是說我們認為我們實際上有一個很好的機會來深化和拓寬我們的工作。我們看到了我們能夠吸引的人才，這實際上鼓勵我們加倍努力，正如我之前所說。

Most of the investment is in talent, but there's also investment in things like MGAs and MGUs deepening our affinity platform and building out the next level of technology within our ICT business to support the insurance industry where we see strong demand. With respect to that talent investment, right, it is about high reproductive talent that can best leverage our platform. It is highly aligned to our specialization strategy. We do recognize that comes with the usual margin drag. This is a typical 12- to 18-month time until we get full productivity out of these people.

大部分投資是在人才方面，但也有對 MGA 和 MGU 等方面的投資，以深化我們的親和力平台，並在我們的 ICT 業務中構建更高水平的技術，以支持我們看到強勁需求的保險業。就人才投資而言，是關於能夠最好地利用我們平台的高繁殖人才。它與我們的專業化戰略高度契合。我們確實認識到這會帶來通常的利潤拖累。通常需要 12 到 18 個月的時間才能讓這些人充分發揮生產力。

But I look forward and say, look, a year ago, we were all about filling gaps rebuilding teams after a period where we had been suffering heightened attrition due to business disruption. Looking forward, right, it is far more opportunistic and looking for talent that's going to drive the most profitable and fastest growing parts of our business, especially the global lines that Andrew referred to earlier.

但我展望未來並說，看，一年前，在我們因業務中斷而遭受嚴重人員流失的一段時期後，我們都在填補空白，重建團隊。展望未來，對吧，我們更加註重機會主義，尋找人才來推動我們業務中利潤最高、增長最快的部分，尤其是安德魯之前提到的全球業務。

I want to be crystal clear, right? This is about going on the defensive -- going on the offensive, we are not about backfilling gaps in the bench anymore. This is about offense, not defense.

我想把事情說得一清二楚，對嗎？這是關於防守——進攻，我們不再是要填補替補席上的空缺。這是關於進攻，而不是防守。

Our next question comes from Gregory Peters. One moment as we bring him to stage.

我們的下一個問題來自格雷戈里·彼得斯。我們把他帶上舞台的那一刻。

Thank you for the increased disclosure around the free cash flow. And I wanted -- my first question, I wanted to focus on that, I guess, it's Slide 15, where you talk about your longer-term free cash flow target of 16%. It feels like the transformation program spend, that's going to be a layup, because that's going to come to an end. The improved profitability seems realistic, I guess. I guess when I look at the 3 buckets, the one I'm concerned about would be the TRANZACT cash conversion. That business for others has been problematic in terms of translating into free cash flow. And also in this free cash flow slide, you didn't mention DSOs and that used to be a lever for the company for improving free cash flow. So maybe you could give us some additional comments around this slide?

感謝您增加有關自由現金流的披露。我想——我的第一個問題，我想重點關注的是幻燈片 15，你在其中談到了 16% 的長期自由現金流目標。感覺就像轉型計劃的支出，這將是一個上籃，因為這將結束。我想，盈利能力的提高似乎是現實的。我想當我看到這 3 個桶時，我關心的是 TRANZACT 現金轉換。對於其他人來說，這項業務在轉化為自由現金流方面一直存在問題。而且在這張自由現金流幻燈片中，您也沒有提到 DSO，而這曾經是公司改善自由現金流的槓桿。那麼您是否可以就這張幻燈片給我們一些額外的評論？

Yes, sure. Greg, it's Andrew. I'll start with the DSO component there. So we do expect incremental benefit from tactical working capital actions focused on opportunities that we see. And that sort of gets reflected in the long-term view on Page 15 in the plus symbol there, if you will. Some of the other actions, of course, do lead to improved working capital management as well. So that is absolutely factored into our plans over the longer term for improved free cash flow margin.

是的，當然。格雷格，這是安德魯。我將從 DSO 組件開始。因此，我們確實期望從專注於我們看到的機會的戰術營運資本行動中獲得增量收益。如果你願意的話，這種情況會反映在第 15 頁的加號中的長期觀點中。當然，其他一些行動也確實會改善營運資本管理。因此，這絕對是我們提高自由現金流利潤率的長期計劃中考慮的因素。

Specifically, with regard to TRANZACT, when we bought that business, we did expect it to be a high-growth business, and we have far exceeded our initial expectations in that regard. And I think that's a testament to the compelling offering that the company provides to its customers and the dedication of its team members in that business. As mentioned in the prepared remarks, the business creates a working capital headwind as it grows. And since we're required to incur significant upfront cash costs, it takes about 5 to 6 years depending on the product to eventually collect all the cash for a sale or a substantial portion of the cash for a sale.

具體來說，對於TRANZACT，當我們購買該業務時，我們確實期望它是一個高增長的業務，並且在這方面我們遠遠超出了我們最初的預期。我認為這證明了該公司為客戶提供的引人注目的產品以及團隊成員在該業務中的奉獻精神。正如準備好的評論中提到的，該業務在發展過程中會產生營運資金阻力。由於我們需要承擔大量的前期現金成本，因此根據產品的不同，我們需要大約 5 到 6 年的時間才能最終收回所有銷售現金或大部分銷售現金。

But we were fully aware of the cash flow dynamics, right, at the time we acquired it, and it has evolved as expected. We continue to see improvement in that area as the business grows and matures. We do have that long-term receivable, which we can continue to focus on and will collect over time. We expect the business to become cash positive sometime in the next few years. And in the meantime, we do expect that drag to decline.

但我們在收購它時就充分意識到了現金流的動態，並且它已經按照預期發展。隨著業務的發展和成熟，我們繼續看到該領域的進步。我們確實有長期應收賬款，我們可以繼續關注並隨著時間的推移收回這些賬款。我們預計該業務將在未來幾年內實現現金正值。與此同時，我們確實預計這種阻力將會下降。

Okay. Fair enough. I guess my follow-up question will pivot back to the margin piece and I know you've talked about it in your prepared remarks, you just answered Elyse's questions regarding it. You spoke about book sales and recruiting. I guess -- from a margin improvement standpoint, I guess I was a little disappointed with the second quarter results. I would have expected some for you guys to report some benefits. So when you said in your answer, book sales, is there going to be more drag from book sales in the second half of this year? And on recruiting, is there more margin drag on recruiting in the second half of this year versus where we were in the first half?

好的。很公平。我想我的後續問題將回到邊緣部分，我知道你已經在準備好的發言中談到了它，你剛剛回答了 Elyse 的相關問題。您談到了圖書銷售和招聘。我想——從利潤率改善的角度來看，我想我對第二季度的業績有點失望。我本來希望你們能報告一些好處。那麼，當您在回答中提到圖書銷售時，今年下半年圖書銷售是否會受到更多拖累？在招聘方面，與上半年相比，今年下半年的招聘利潤率是否受到更大影響？

Yes, sure. Let me start with the book sale question. So we do expect some level of book sale activity in the second half of the year. However, we do expect it to be roughly on par with the book sale activity in the second half of last year. The quarterly pacing of that may vary, but in aggregate over the second half should be pretty comparable.

是的，當然。讓我從圖書銷售問題開始。因此，我們確實預計下半年會有一定程度的圖書銷售活動。不過，我們確實預計其銷量將與去年下半年的圖書銷售活動大致持平。每個季度的進度可能會有所不同，但下半年的總體情況應該相當可比。

Okay. With regard to recruiting, Greg, I guess one thing I'd note is sort of open positions of the company are at half the level they were a year ago. And so that should give you an idea of sort of overall where we're trying to do with recruitment. However, I want to point out that I think we're at a point in time, and yes, Lucy Clarke's arrival, I think, is a testament to this where the choice we've made very deliberately to specialize within R&B is it's the foundation of our growth, and it is significantly attractive to people who can actually help us generate revenue. We think that this is the time to capitalize on that.

好的。關於招聘，格雷格，我想我要注意的一件事是，公司的空缺職位只有一年前水平的一半。因此，這應該能讓您大致了解我們在招聘方面的總體情況。然而，我想指出的是，我認為我們正處於一個時間點，是的，露西·克拉克的到來，我認為，證明了這一點，我們非常刻意地選擇專注於 R&B 領域，這是是我們發展的基礎，對於真正能夠幫助我們創收的人來說，它具有很大的吸引力。我們認為現在是利用這一點的時候了。

And so we do think that targeted investments in our global lines and our industry strategy, this is exactly the right time for those to be paying off. So we're going to be looking to actively find that talent.

因此，我們確實認為，對我們的全球業務和行業戰略進行有針對性的投資，現在正是獲得回報的最佳時機。因此，我們將積極尋找人才。

Our next question comes from Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I had another sort of book of sale question. If we're looking at the profit margin of the businesses, you're looking -- you're using through book sales versus the rest of the business, are those book sales businesses have similar margins? Or is that another sort of source of margin compression for the company as these businesses are sold away?

我有另一種銷售書籍的問題。如果我們查看業務的利潤率，您會看到 - 您通過圖書銷售與其他業務相比，這些圖書銷售業務是否具有相似的利潤率？或者，隨著這些業務被出售，這是否是公司利潤壓縮的另一種來源？

Yes. The books that we're selling generally have the same economic profile and margin profile as the broader business. So there's nothing specific about the margins of the businesses or books that we're selling.

是的。我們銷售的書籍通常具有與更廣泛的業務相同的經濟狀況和利潤狀況。因此，我們銷售的業務或書籍的利潤率沒有什麼具體的內容。

That makes more modeling easier. Second question, a lot of what your peers have done with respect to margin improvement over time came to some very careful divestitures of businesses that you'll see every quarter from them. How does that fit into your strategy as well, if at all? Looking at sort of divesting? Are you looking at divesting some of these businesses that might have lower margins as well?

這使得更多的建模變得更加容易。第二個問題，隨著時間的推移，你的同行在提高利潤率方面所做的很多工作都是對業務的非常謹慎的剝離，你每個季度都會看到他們的業務剝離。如果有的話，這是否也適合您的策略？正在考慮剝離？您是否正在考慮剝離其中一些利潤率可能較低的業務？

Yes. We won't comment on any specific M&A actions. But as you can imagine, portfolio management is always front and center for us. And of course, we do look across the broad base of our businesses to make strategic decisions about that portfolio.

是的。我們不會對任何具體的併購行動發表評論。但正如您可以想像的那樣，投資組合管理始終是我們的前沿和中心。當然，我們確實會審視我們廣泛的業務基礎，以就該投資組合做出戰略決策。

And I'd add, we use that for our acquisition strategy as well. We're looking for businesses where we can be a better owner than the current owner.

我想補充一點，我們也將其用於我們的收購策略。我們正在尋找能夠成為比現任所有者更好的企業主的企業。

Our next question comes from David Motemaden from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question just on the new margin range for next year, the 22.5% to 23.5%. Could you just help me understand and think through some of the pluses and minuses that would help you be at the high end versus the low end of that outlook?

我剛剛對明年的新利潤率範圍（22.5% 至 23.5%）有疑問。您能否幫助我理解並思考一些優點和缺點，以幫助您處於該前景的高端與低端？

Yes, sure. I think part of it will be -- Carl mentioned some continued investment in talent as well as some platforms. So I think it will be the payback period from those investments. Another determining factor would be the pace at which some of the operating leverage becomes visible through the Transformation Program and some incremental savings from the Transformation Program as well. So the timing of that sort of is what feeds into the bounds of that range.

是的，當然。我認為其中一部分是——卡爾提到了對人才和一些平台的持續投資。所以我認為這將是這些投資的回報期。另一個決定因素是一些運營槓桿通過轉型計劃變得可見的速度以及轉型計劃帶來的一些增量節省。因此，這種時機就是進入該範圍界限的因素。

And then I'll just add demand across various parts of our business, right? So while I think we've got a very diversified portfolio and that has enabled us to what storms, we do try to take advantage of conditions as we find them, like sort of demand across the portfolio, as you can see from the segment numbers, the growth remains strong there, and we're looking to make sure we stay focused on the areas where we see the strongest demand in the marketplace, whether that's in the specialty lines within R&B, our Health and Benefits Business, and focus within our Career business in a place where we see demand, which is sort of coping with new ways of working in the new normal.

然後我會增加我們業務各個部分的需求，對嗎？因此，雖然我認為我們擁有非常多元化的投資組合，這使我們能夠應對風暴，但我們確實嘗試利用我們發現的條件，例如整個投資組合的需求，正如您從細分數字中看到的那樣，那裡的增長仍然強勁，我們希望確保我們繼續專注於市場需求最強勁的領域，無論是 R&B 的專業領域、我們的健康和福利業務，還是我們的重點領域在我們看到需求的地方開展職業業務，這在某種程度上是應對新常態下的新工作方式。

I'd also add, there's upside in our wealth business, especially in the -- if capital markets stay up and in fact that we're collecting percent of asset fees across a large chunk of our investments business.

我還想補充一點，我們的財富業務有上行空間，特別是如果資本市場保持增長，而且事實上我們正在從我們大部分的投資業務中收取一定比例的資產費用。

Yes. Got it. That makes sense. And then I guess I was just on some of the hiring that you've made up to this point. Maybe you can help me understand just how far along you are in the ramp of production of those hires? And are we sort of hitting like a peak in terms of how those hires you've made in the past can contribute? And is that partially why you're sort of making additional strategic investments or maybe you could just help me understand where we are in terms of the ramp-up of the hires you've made up to this point?

是的。知道了。這就說得通了。然後我想我只是參與了你們迄今為止所招聘的一些人員。也許你可以幫助我了解你在這些員工的生產方面進展到了什麼程度？就您過去聘用的員工的貢獻而言，我們是否達到了頂峰？這是否是你們進行額外戰略投資的部分原因，或者也許你們可以幫助我了解我們目前在招聘人數方面的進展情況？

Sure, sure, sure. So as I alluded to a little while ago, we're actually very happy with the progress for our '22 (inaudible) cohort of hires, right? They've actually performed in excess of where we think they thought we would be at this point in time. But no, they're not up to full productivity yet. As we've said, that's 12 to 18 months and sort of on average, we're about 12 months on that. The 2023 hires, which is a smaller number. It's only been half a year, right, are performing in line with expectations, but that's, of course, early days.

當然，當然，當然。正如我剛才提到的，我們實際上對 22 屆（聽不清）員工隊伍的進展感到非常滿意，對吧？事實上，他們的表現超出了我們目前的預期。但不，他們還沒有達到充分的生產力。正如我們所說，這是 12 到 18 個月，平均而言，我們大約需要 12 個月。 2023 年的招聘人數較少。才過了半年，對吧，表現符合預期，但這當然還處於早期階段。

I think what I'm saying with respect to sort of looking forward, right, is we actually see significant strong demand for our specialty approach, and we think that there is talent we can attract under the way we have focused this company, which is different than the way others approach it to able to actually double down on that strategy and push that ahead. So it's -- yes, I think what we've seen from the '22 and '23 hires is encouraging, but that's not necessarily just saying, okay, more of the same. We think that it's actually a confirmation of our strategy and how it's resonating with clients that want us to move ahead.

我認為我所說的關於未來的展望，是的，我們實際上看到了對我們的專業方法的巨大需求，並且我們認為，在我們專注於這家公司的方式下，我們可以吸引人才，即與其他人採取的方式不同，能夠真正加倍實施該戰略並推動其前進。所以，是的，我認為我們從 22 歲和 23 歲的員工身上看到的情況是令人鼓舞的，但這並不一定只是說，好吧，更多的是相同的。我們認為這實際上是對我們戰略的確認，以及它如何與希望我們前進的客戶產生共鳴。

Our question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

我們的問題來自 Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods 的 Meyer Shields。

This is [Jane] on for Meyer. I just have a question on (inaudible) length. So given how well the organic growth has been playing out, do you guys see any changes in your investment?

這是邁耶的[Jane]。我只是有一個關於（聽不清）長度的問題。那麼，考慮到有機增長的良好表現，你們的投資有什麼變化嗎？

Any changes -- I'm sorry, any changes in the investment given the organic growth?

有什麼變化嗎——抱歉，考慮到有機增長，投資有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

No. I think as Carl just alluded to, we do see continued opportunity for talent in the market. So we're not sort of filling gaps at this point as we had been historically. This is more about leaning forward and being on the offensive with regard to our talent investment strategy where we continue to see really strong opportunity for talent that aligns with our specialization strategy.

不。我認為正如卡爾剛才提到的，我們確實看到市場上有持續的人才機會。因此，我們目前並沒有像歷史上那樣填補空白。這更多的是關於我們的人才投資戰略的向前傾斜和進攻，我們繼續看到與我們的專業化戰略相一致的真正強大的人才機會。

Got it. My second question is on the free cash flow guidance. I know you guys gave the long-term guidance of 16%, just wonder improved 12% guidance of this year through to 2024 linearly? Or how does -- can you add some details on that?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於自由現金流指導。我知道你們給出了 16% 的長期指導，只是想知道今年到 2024 年線性提高 12% 的指導嗎？或者你能添加一些細節嗎？

I'm sorry, can you repeat the question, please?

抱歉，您能重複一下這個問題嗎？

So for the free cash flow guidance, just wondering can you add some details on 2024? Or do you see it just improve linearly to the 15%?

那麼對於自由現金流指導，我想知道您能否添加一些有關 2024 年的細節？或者您是否看到它只是線性提高到 15%？

Yes. I mean, yes, we do expect continuous improvement, but we haven't given any specific free cash flow margin guidance for 2024.

是的。我的意思是，是的，我們確實期望持續改善，但我們沒有給出 2024 年任何具體的自由現金流利潤率指導。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的馬克·馬爾孔 (Mark Marcon)。

With regards to the margin change, basically, at the midpoint, you've reduced the margin guide by about 50 bps, is that sufficient in terms of -- is that enough of a cushion to really improve the talent pipeline? And then thinking about the morale and retention with regards to your long-term associates, do you think that's going to be fairly meaningful in terms of driving further engagement and driving further productivity?

關於利潤率變化，基本上，在中點，你已經將利潤率指導降低了大約 50 個基點，這是否足夠——這是否足以作為真正改善人才管道的緩衝？然後考慮一下長期合作夥伴的士氣和保留率，您認為這對於推動進一步的敬業度和提高生產力方面是否相當有意義？

So I think with regard to the 50 basis points that we do think that, that gives us the flexibility we're looking for. We can structure compensation, which, for us, of course, is highly variable, especially in client engaging to be able to manage the impact of recruitment.

因此，我認為就我們確實認為的 50 個基點而言，這為我們提供了我們所尋求的靈活性。我們可以構建薪酬結構，當然，對我們來說，薪酬變化很大，尤其是在客戶參與以管理招聘影響的情況下。

With respect to morale, one of the biggest screens we use is -- are they going to fit well with the team, right? And that's been our approach historically. We anticipate that will very much be part of our approach going forward. It fits beautifully with a specialization strategy, because you're not looking for a lone wolf selling, right? It's about insights-based approach to helping clients manage risk fueled by data and analytics. And that ends up with someone who's quite committed to that and that by its very nature, makes it more of a team-based approach. So I think there's a sort of a virtuous cycle, we guess, with respect to our approach that actually makes team building easier and minimizes morale disruption that might take.

就士氣而言，我們使用的最大屏幕之一是——它們是否適合團隊，對嗎？這就是我們歷史上的做法。我們預計這將成為我們未來方法的一部分。它非常適合專業化戰略，因為您不是在尋找獨狼銷售，對吧？這是基於洞察的方法，幫助客戶管理數據和分析帶來的風險。最終會出現一個非常致力於此的人，而就其本質而言，這使其更像是一種基於團隊的方法。因此，我認為，我們認為，我們的方法存在一種良性循環，實際上使團隊建設變得更容易，並最大限度地減少了可能造成的士氣破壞。

That's great. And then what's the tax rate that you're assuming for the '24 EPS targets?

那太棒了。那麼您為“24 年每股收益”目標假設的稅率是多少？

Yes. We haven't specifically given that information but if you think about the current year adjusted tax rate it is modestly higher, as of now, year-to-date, and we expect something modestly higher on a full year basis year-over-year.

是的。我們還沒有具體提供這些信息，但如果你考慮一下今年調整後的稅率，截至目前，年初至今，它會小幅提高，我們預計全年稅率會比去年同期小幅提高。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Okay. Great. And on the free cash flow, thanks for the added color. I just want to confirm that the pension income levels or the pension changes in terms of the impacting your EPS that doesn't flow through to cash flow, right?

好的。偉大的。關於自由現金流，感謝您添加的色彩。我只是想確認養老金收入水平或養老金變化對你的每股收益的影響，但不會流向現金流，對吧？

Correct. The pension income is noncash.

正確的。養老金收入是非現金的。

Okay. Got it. Okay. Switching gears to the segments. You've talked a lot about and you have been for a number of quarters by investing in talent opportunistically, is this also happening in the Health, Wealth and Career segment a bit? I just asked because margins were a little light there as well versus expectations.

好的。知道了。好的。切換齒輪至各段。您已經談了很多，而且幾個季度以來您一直在機會主義地投資人才，這種情況是否也發生在健康、財富和職業領域？我只是問，因為與預期相比，那裡的利潤率也有點低。

So we do see talent as flocking to the flag, right, in HWC as well. Although I think it's a bit different positionally than it is with -- as opposed to R&B. In that we've got a very, very successful leading wealth business. And with already, I think, a very good market position. So we don't -- you wouldn't typically see large-scale recruiting going on in that business. The recruiting is more focused on health and benefits where we do see the opportunity to gain market share. And we're just -- we think our position in broking globally is one where we can continue to capitalize.

因此，我們確實看到人才湧向 HWC 的旗幟，對吧。儘管我認為它的定位與 R&B 有所不同。我們擁有非常非常成功的領先財富業務。我認為，已經擁有非常好的市場地位。所以我們不會——你通常不會看到該行業進行大規模招聘。招聘更注重健康和福利，我們確實看到了獲得市場份額的機會。我們只是——我們認為我們在全球經紀領域的地位是我們可以繼續利用的。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

I guess my first question, Carl, just listening to the explanations behind the lowing of guidance for '24. It almost sounded to me like excluding the pension element that interest and inflationary trends were a net negative. I guess that's -- if I heard that correctly, it's a little counterintuitive to what I would have thought the net impact that broker would be? So I would love to hear a little more on that.

我想我的第一個問題是，卡爾，只是聽聽 24 世紀指導方針背後的解釋。在我看來，這幾乎就像排除養老金因素一樣，利息和通脹趨勢是淨負值。我想如果我沒聽錯的話，這與我想像的經紀人的淨影響有點違反直覺？所以我很想听聽更多相關內容。

So when I was talking about interest rates being negative, it with respect to the pension, right? It wasn't in respect of the fact that we do receive more interest income.

所以當我談論負利率時，它是指養老金，對吧？這並不是因為我們確實獲得了更多的利息收入。

I thought you'd also talked about the pressure from higher interest rate environments on M&A activity and on operating costs, right?

我想您也談到了高利率環境對併購活動和運營成本的壓力，對嗎？

No. I mean, we -- I think the puts and takes are a little hard to work out, right? But we do have a large scale as do others, right, M&A-focused brokering business and the freeze in that marketplace is obviously quite unhelpful on that side. So it's as I said, it's a bit more complex.

不，我的意思是，我們——我認為看跌期權和看跌期權有點難以計算，對吧？但我們確實和其他公司一樣擁有大規模，對吧，專注於併購的經紀業務，而該市場的凍結顯然在這方面毫無幫助。所以正如我所說，它有點複雜。

Yes. But I guess if we take a step back, and again, excluding the pension element, wouldn't the higher interest rate and higher inflation environment be a net positive holistically?

是的。但我想，如果我們退一步，再次排除養老金因素，更高的利率和更高的通脹環境從整體上看不是會帶來淨積極影響嗎？

Not necessarily. I think it depends on the impact of inflation on different components of the income statement. So obviously, there's been a lot of wage inflation over the last 2 years, and that's not just related to new hirers, right, that does impact our existing wage base. There is inflation. We talked about the cost of travel has gone up meaningfully, things of that nature, that is mitigated, right, by the impact of fiduciary income. But as Carl mentioned, we do have some interest rate sensitive businesses, right, that get impacted by that as well like M&A-related products.

不必要。我認為這取決於通貨膨脹對損益表不同組成部分的影響。顯然，過去兩年工資上漲幅度很大，這不僅僅與新員工有關，對吧，這確實影響了我們現有的工資基礎。有通貨膨脹。我們談到旅行成本已經大幅上升，這種性質的事情，通過信託收入的影響得到了緩解，對吧。但正如卡爾提到的，我們確實有一些對利率敏感的業務，對吧，它們會受到利率敏感的業務以及併購相關產品的影響。

Yes. So I guess I would not call it a huge negative, but it's not nearly the positive you might take it on looking at some components alone.

是的。因此，我想我不會將其稱為巨大的負面影響，但僅從某些組件來看，這並不是你可能會認為的積極因素。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then if we flip to the pension component specifically, if I'm doing the math correctly. The midpoint of the new guidance, you're talking about roughly $80 million worth of pension income in '24. And I understand we'll get another update at year-end. But if that math is roughly correct, can you maybe explain why we'd see another, call it, 30% reduction in pension income year-over-year when capital markets are actually up year-to-date and I think the level of interest rate increases has moderated a bit?

好的。我很感激。然後，如果我們具體轉向養老金部分，如果我計算正確的話。新指南的中點是，24 年養老金收入約為 8000 萬美元。據我所知，我們將在年底得到另一次更新。但如果這個數學大致正確，你能否解釋一下為什麼我們會看到另一種情況，稱之為養老金收入同比減少 30%，而資本市場今年迄今實際上已經上漲，而且我認為利率漲幅有所放緩？

Yes. So if you look at our pension plans, right, the asset mixes will have a heavy effect here. Our biggest plan is the U.K. plan, which actually doesn't have a lot of equity exposure at all in it as it has a fairly tight asset liability match. It's quite sensitive to both interest rates and inflation levels, because of the indexation of U.K. pension liabilities.

是的。因此，如果你看看我們的養老金計劃，你會發現資產組合將在這裡產生重大影響。我們最大的計劃是英國計劃，該計劃實際上根本沒有太多的股權敞口，因為它的資產負債匹配相當嚴格。由於英國養老金負債指數化，它對利率和通脹水平都非常敏感。

The U.S. plan is more -- is invested to work into a U.S. plan would be invested with a mix of both bonds and other assets. But even within the return-seeking assets pool, there's a large part of alternative assets and other diversifying strategies, which won't necessarily move in line with the public equity markets. That protects us on the downside, but it does give up some upside in strong equity markets.

美國的計劃更多的是投資以實現美國計劃將投資於債券和其他資產的組合。但即使在尋求回報的資產池中，也存在很大一部分另類資產和其他多元化策略，這些策略不一定會與公共股票市場保持一致。這在下行時保護了我們，但它確實放棄了強勁股市的一些上行空間。

Our next question comes from Mike Ward from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克·沃德。

Andrew mentioned, I think, strong commercial pricing was less of a tailwind this quarter. We've kind of been hearing strength out there from peers and primaries. Just wondering, is it -- are you altering commissions? Is it just the comps? Any commentary would be helpful.

安德魯提到，我認為強勁的商業定價對本季度的推動作用較小。我們已經從同行和初選中聽到了一些力量。只是想知道，你們是否正在改變佣金？這只是比較嗎？任何評論都會有幫助。

So I mean if you look at the rate on the commercial risk side, I mean, overall, we're seeing flatter single-digit increases or even small decreases depending on local market conditions. Rate increases across many lines are moderating, but there are definitely some lines that aren't seeing any abatement at present U.S. property, probably being the most predominant one. Remember, we are a very global firm with respect to our mix. And that -- so you can't necessarily take our book as typical for others. But it's certainly in cat-exposed property rate increases are still coming through.

所以我的意思是，如果你看看商業風險方面的利率，我的意思是，總體而言，我們會看到單位數的平穩增長，甚至根據當地市場狀況出現小幅下降。許多行業的利率上漲正在放緩，但目前美國房地產肯定有一些行業沒有任何下降，這可能是最主要的行業。請記住，就我們的產品組合而言，我們是一家非常全球化的公司。因此，您不一定將我們的書視為其他書的典型。但可以肯定的是，受貓影響的房地產加息仍在繼續。

Casualty is a bit of a different story. There's more stability in the global portfolio with relatively small rating increases being written.

傷亡情況則有些不同。全球投資組合更加穩定，評級上調幅度相對較小。

Got it. And then I think Carl mentioned potential upside in the wealth business. Any update on the outlook for that one in the second half with markets being where they are?

知道了。然後我認為卡爾提到了財富業務的潛在優勢。在市場現狀的情況下，下半年的前景有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. Well, I mean, with sort of pension funding levels being at a pretty hefty rate -- sorry, compared historically, right, the pension funds are pretty well funded. So the opportunity for pension risk transfer activity remains elevated, and we have a market-leading position that in the major markets. And then the other phenomenon just referring to is we've got an investment business that is a substantial part of that is compensated basis points. And with asset levels up, that's helpful for that business.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，養老基金的資金水平相當高——抱歉，與歷史相比，養老基金的資金相當充足。因此，養老金風險轉移活動的機會仍然很高，而且我們在主要市場中處於市場領先地位。剛才提到的另一個現像是，我們的投資業務很大一部分是補償基點。隨著資產水平的提高，這對該業務很有幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩·梅雷迪思。

Two questions here. Carl, I'm just curious, in the 2024 guidance, what is embedded with respect to the economic outlook? What would happen if nominal GDP goes, let's call it, 2%, 3%, would it be challenging to make your kind of guidance targets? And then what else are you embedded in that with respect to the commercial lines pricing environment?

這裡有兩個問題。卡爾，我只是好奇，在 2024 年指導中，經濟前景包含哪些內容？如果名義 GDP 增長（我們稱之為 2%、3%）會發生什麼，制定您的指導目標是否會具有挑戰性？那麼在商業線路定價環境方面，您還嵌入了什麼？

So with respect to rate, I mean, we and brokerage aren't necessarily as sensitive to rate. It is the carriers in that, and I think I've made this point in prior calls, right, when rates skyrockets, our clients will just simply retain more risk to try and manage their budgets. So we don't see rate is having a major effect on our prospects for '24.

因此，就利率而言，我的意思是，我們和券商不一定對利率那麼敏感。這是運營商的問題，我想我在之前的電話中已經說過這​​一點，對吧，當費率飆升時，我們的客戶只會保留更多的風險來嘗試和管理他們的預算。因此，我們認為利率不會對 24 年的前景產生重大影響。

I think with respect to sort of general economic conditions, as long as they're generally manageable, we've got a portfolio of businesses that has shown resilience and sort of good times and bad. And so providing clients are so paralyzed by volatility that they aren't willing to make decisions. We tend to do okay.

我認為，就總體經濟狀況而言，只要它們總體上是可控的，我們的業務組合就表現出彈性，無論好壞都表現出來。因此，客戶因波動而陷入癱瘓，以至於不願意做出決定。我們往往做得還不錯。

Got you. So a recession or something should matter?

明白你了。那麼經濟衰退或者其他什麼事情應該很重要嗎？

Maybe sharp and sudden recession where clients sort of have to swerve in their plans, right, is -- unexpectedly, right, is not necessarily helpful. Although even then, right, that may drive demand for consulting projects that help to manage the changing conditions.

也許急劇而突然的經濟衰退，客戶不得不改變他們的計劃，對，出乎意料，對，並不一定有幫助。儘管如此，這可能會推動對有助於管理不斷變化的情況的諮詢項目的需求。

Makes sense. And then my second question, I'm just curious, Carl, can you talk a little bit about just employee retention and efforts and what you're doing to keep people. I mean I look at your stock down 12% and all the other brokers are up mid-teens. And I can tell you just from any company work out, you're always looking at that stock price. What are you doing to kind of help keep people? And what does retention look like right now?

說得通。然後是我的第二個問題，我只是很好奇，卡爾，你能談談員工的保留和努力，以及你正在做什麼來留住員工嗎？我的意思是，我看到你們的股票下跌了 12%，而所有其他經紀商的股價都上漲了 12%。我可以告訴你，從任何一家公司的數據來看，你總是會關注股價。你正在做什麼來幫助留住人才？現在的留存情況如何？

So I mean, the most retention has been actually quite good, and attrition this year has been lower than our expectations and in line with industry -- our industry in general. So we're quite happy with how that's been playing out. Engagement is a huge part of employee retention, right? And that's often we do research on this, right, within our career business, right? And engagement goes far beyond compensation, right?

所以我的意思是，最大的保留率實際上相當不錯，今年的流失率低於我們的預期，並且與行業——我們整個行業的情況一致。所以我們對事情的進展感到非常滿意。敬業度是員工保留的重要組成部分，對吧？我們經常在我們的職業生涯中對此進行研究，對吧？參與度遠遠超出了報酬，對吧？

It's actually -- there's a number of factors that drive it. And we do eat our own cooking and try and take the advice of our career consultants to create a workplace that people actually want to be participate in, because they think they're making a difference for their own career, for their colleagues, for their clients and for society at large. That's not to say, compensation doesn't play in it, but it's by no means the determinative matter. And I think we're doing well enough that the attrition numbers are reflecting our efforts in that regard.

事實上，有很多因素推動它。我們確實吃自己做的菜，並嘗試聽取職業顧問的建議，打造一個人們真正願意參與的工作場所，因為他們認為自己正在為自己的職業生涯、為同事、為自己的事業做出貢獻。客戶和整個社會。這並不是說薪酬在其中不起作用，但這絕不是決定性的問題。我認為我們做得足夠好，人員流失數字反映了我們在這方面的努力。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的馬克·休斯 (Mark Hughes)。

How are you approaching TRANZACT this year? It seems like the environment was a little more productive last year. Do you think this will be another strong growth year for TRANZACT?

今年您對 TRANZACT 的態度如何？去年的環境似乎更有生產力一些。您認為今年會是 TRANZACT 又一個強勁增長的一年嗎？

Yes. We continue to expect healthy growth from that business. There's more to that business than just the Medicare Advantage market where we do sell other products and those products have different financial profiles and cash collection profiles with them as well. So we do make sure that we look to create a balanced portfolio across that business.

是的。我們繼續預計該業務將健康增長。該業務不僅僅是醫療保險優勢市場，我們也銷售其他產品，這些產品也有不同的財務狀況和現金收集狀況。因此，我們確實確保我們希望在整個業務中創建一個平衡的投資組合。

And as we've said in prior calls, right, we do think the CMS regs that came out are manageable for us, and we've taken steps to adapt the business to them. So we don't view them as impacting TRANZACT's potential to thrive.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣，我們確實認為發布的 CMS 法規對我們來說是可以管理的，並且我們已採取措施使業務適應這些法規。因此，我們認為它們不會影響 TRANZACT 的蓬勃發展潛力。

Our last question comes from the line of Rob Cox from Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Rob Cox。

It appears that we do not have Mr. Cox, so we will go on that as our last question. I'll give one moment to see if anyone else would like to ask questions.

看來我們沒有考克斯先生，所以我們將繼續這個問題作為我們的最後一個問題。我會花一點時間看看是否還有其他人想提問。

As I am showing no further questions at this time, and we have no closing remarks, that concludes our session. Thank you for participating in today's meeting.

由於我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題，我們也沒有結束語，因此我們的會議結束。感謝您參加今天的會議。