Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that were issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next 3 months on WTW's website.

早安.歡迎參加 WTW 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。請參閱 wtwco.com，了解今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充資訊。今天的通話正在錄音中，並將在未來 3 個月內發佈在 WTW 網站上。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law.

今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果有重大差異，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors, investors should review the forward-looking statements section in the earnings press release issued this morning as well as other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and other Willis Towers Watson's SEC filings.

如需對這些及其他風險因素進行更詳細的討論，投資者應查看今天早上發布的收益新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述部分，以及最新的10-K 表格和其他Willis Towers Watson 向SEC 提交的文件中的其他披露內容。

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在電話會議期間，可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關非公認會計原則措施的調節以及有關這些措施的其他信息，請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的最新收益發布和其他資料。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給 WTW 執行長卡爾赫斯 (Carl Hess)。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。感謝您參加 WTW 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的財務長安德魯‧克拉斯納 (Andrew Krasner)。

WTW ended 2023 on a strong note and has begun 2024 with solid momentum as we continue to execute on our grow, simplify and transform strategic priorities. In the fourth quarter, our world-class solutions and maturing investments in talent helped generate robust organic revenue growth.

WTW 以強勁的勢頭結束了 2023 年，並以強勁的勢頭開始了 2024 年，我們將繼續執行我們的成長、簡化和轉型策略重點。第四季度，我們世界一流的解決方案和成熟的人才投資幫助實現了強勁的有機收入成長。

And our transformation program and expense discipline drove adjusted operating margin expansion and solid adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. Our performance steadily improved throughout 2023. And today, WTW is stronger, more resilient and better positioned to achieve our goals.

我們的轉型計畫和費用紀律推動了調整後營業利潤率的擴張和調整後稀釋每股收益的穩健成長。 2023 年，我們的業績穩步提升。如今，WTW 更加強大、更有彈性，更有能力實現我們的目標。

We delivered 6% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter with an adjusted operating margin of 34.2%, up 180 basis points over the prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $7.44, an 18% increase year-over-year.

第四季我們實現了 6% 的有機收入成長，調整後營業利潤率為 34.2%，比上年增長 180 個基點。調整後攤薄每股收益為 7.44 美元，年增 18%。

For the full year, we had organic revenue growth of 8% above our mid-single-digit target. We also drove 110 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion to achieve an adjusted operating margin of 22%, fulfilling our commitment of annual margin expansion. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share were $14.49, an 8% increase over the prior year.

全年，我們的有機收入成長了 8%，高於我們的中個位數目標。我們也推動利潤率年增 110 個基點，實現調整後營業利益率 22%，履行了年度利潤率擴張的承諾。調整後攤薄每股收益為 14.49 美元，比上年增長 8%。

We believe these results are the product of our strong global client model, our strategic investments in talent and technology and our team's hard work and relentless focus on best-in-class delivery.

我們相信，這些成果是我們強大的全球客戶模式、我們對人才和技術的策略投資以及我們團隊的辛勤工作和對一流交付的不懈關注的結果。

The progress we see within WTW and the enthusiastic response we're receiving from clients give us confidence that our strategies, our people and our investments are aligned with areas that we believe to be the greatest opportunities to drive sustainable profitable growth and create shareholder value over the long term.

我們在WTW 中看到的進展以及我們從客戶那裡收到的熱情回應讓我們相信，我們的策略、我們的員工和我們的投資與我們認為是推動可持續盈利增長和創造股東價值的最佳機會的領域相一致。長期來看。

Let me take a few minutes to share the progress we've made and the opportunities ahead of us across our segments. Throughout 2023, our specialization strategy in Risk & Broking was a key driver of growth for both the segment and the enterprise. Our specialty businesses continue to have significantly higher growth in the rest of the segment. This growth, driven in large part by improved client retention, expansion of existing client relationships and our strength and ability to attract new clients and win back old ones has validated our approach.

讓我花幾分鐘時間分享我們所取得的進展以及我們各部門面臨的機會。在整個 2023 年，我們在風險與經紀領域的專業化策略是該細分市場和企業成長的關鍵驅動力。我們的專業業務在該細分市場的其餘部分繼續取得顯著更高的成長。這種成長在很大程度上得益於客戶保留率的提高、現有客戶關係的擴大以及我們吸引新客戶和贏回舊客戶的實力和能力，這驗證了我們的方法。

As a result, specialization continues to be our primary strategic focus in R&B. It allows us to create value for clients by tailoring solutions that close gaps in their risk management profile. Together with digitization, data and analytics, we can create efficiencies that enable us to provide more timely and effective insurance services.

因此，專業化仍然是我們在 R&B 領域的主要策略重點。它使我們能夠透過客製化解決方案來縮小客戶風險管理狀況的差距，從而為客戶創造價值。與數位化、數據和分析相結合，我們可以提高效率，使我們能夠提供更及時、更有效的保險服務。

Our approach to specialization is tailored to each geography in which we operate. In 2023, we built out 12 industry verticals in North America. That process is now complete, with colleagues, processes and infrastructure supporting that alignment. Given the success we've seen to date, we're in the process of launching this industry model across Western Europe, and we'll build out more industry verticals in our international region in 2024.

我們的專業化方法是根據我們營運所在的每個地區量身定制的。 2023 年，我們在北美建立了 12 個垂直產業。該流程現已完成，同事、流程和基礎設施支援這種一致性。鑑於我們迄今為止所取得的成功，我們正在整個西歐推出這一行業模式，並將於 2024 年在國際地區建立更多的垂直行業。

This model, together with our global reach, has us positioned to win an outsized share of complex mandates such as our recent win of a multiyear construction project for a key player in the European energy sector. Our cutting-edge data and analytics and our ability to bring together superior industry and product expertise from our specialist teams across several countries set our proposal apart.

這種模式加上我們的全球影響力，使我們能夠贏得大量複雜的任務，例如我們最近為歐洲能源領域的關鍵參與者贏得了多年期建設項目。我們最先進的數據和分析，以及匯集來自多個國家的專家團隊的卓越行業和產品專業知識的能力，使我們的提案與眾不同。

We're also making good progress expanding into new and differentiated revenue streams such as our new managing general underwriter, Verita, which is growing steadily since its initial launch in September.

我們在拓展新的差異化收入來源方面也取得了良好進展，例如我們新的總承銷商 Verita，該公司自 9 月首次推出以來一直在穩步成長。

Just in the fourth quarter of 2023, we've onboarded brokers, [balanced] premiums and received submissions for both external and our own brokerage clients.

就在 2023 年第四季度，我們已經招募了經紀人，[平衡]保費，並收到了外部和我們自己的經紀客戶的提交意見。

In 2024, we'll focus on expanding our MGA and MGU strategy to additional geographies. In addition to expanding our business platforms and offerings at Risk & Broking, we're continuing to invest in our people to win new business. Our colleagues who joined us during 2022 and 2023 have become increasingly productive and have brought our talent base back to full strength, as evidenced by the segment's strong organic revenue growth in the second half of 2023.

2024 年，我們將重點將 MGA 和 MGU 策略擴展到更多地區。除了擴大我們在 Risk & Broking 的業務平台和產品之外，我們還繼續投資我們的員工以贏得新業務。 2022 年和 2023 年加入我們的同事的工作效率越來越高，並使我們的人才基礎恢復了全部實力，2023 年下半年該部門強勁的有機收入增長就證明了這一點。

Accordingly, we're now focused on strategic and opportunistic talent investments. These investments should enhance our presence capabilities in the lines of business and geographies that we believe offer the greatest growth and profitability potential. We expect these efforts to continue throughout 2024 and beyond.

因此，我們現在專注於策略性和機會性人才投資。這些投資將增強我們在我們認為具有最大成長和獲利潛力的業務線和地區的影響力。我們預計這些努力將持續到 2024 年及以後。

Furthermore, we see opportunity for continued strong new business growth as we work closely to help clients manage a complex and challenging risk environment marked by increasingly costly natural disasters, social inflation and geopolitical conflicts.

此外，我們看到了新業務持續強勁成長的機會，因為我們密切合作，幫助客戶管理複雜且充滿挑戰的風險環境，其中自然災害、社會通貨膨脹和地緣政治衝突的代價日益高昂。

In HWC, we've leveraged the strength of our portfolio, driving growth through and across health, wealth and career and BD&O. We've made significant progress by staying focused on our core businesses by making connections across the organization where it adds value for clients and by simplifying how we work. For example, we maintained or improved client retention rates across all of HWC, including excellent 98% retention rates for our retirement and outsourcing businesses.

在 HWC，我們充分利用了產品組合的優勢，透過健康、財富和職業以及 BD&O 推動成長。透過專注於我們的核心業務、在整個組織內建立聯繫、為客戶增加價值以及簡化我們的工作方式，我們取得了重大進展。例如，我們維持或提高了整個 HWC 的客戶保留率，包括我們的退休和外包業務高達 98% 的保留率。

We had a dozen of clients for our signature packaged solutions like our LifeSight master trust and global benefits management offerings. We expanded our relationships with more than 1,500 clients to include at least one new service offering. And we increased the size and scope of our hub teams in key centers around the world to enhance capacity and consistency.

我們有十幾家客戶使用我們的標誌性打包解決方案，例如我們的 LifeSight 主信託和全球福利管理產品。我們擴大了與 1,500 多家客戶的關係，並提供了至少一項新服務。我們也擴大了世界各地主要中心的中心團隊的規模和範圍，以提高容量和一致性。

Our intense focus on cross-selling and making it simpler to do business with us is paying off. Across industries and services, more clients are coming to WTW for a full suite of solutions. Just to mention a few from this quarter. We had a software development firm move its global benefits consulting and brokerage work to WTW and appoint us to support their employee experience through our Embark portal and our Engage software.

我們對交叉銷售以及讓與我們開展業務變得更簡單的強烈關注正在得到回報。在各個行業和服務領域，越來越多的客戶來到 WTW 尋求全套解決方案。僅舉本季的一些情況。我們讓一家軟體開發公司將其全球福利諮詢和經紀工作轉移到 WTW，並指定我們透過我們的 Embark 入口網站和 Engage 軟體來支援他們的員工體驗。

A major global financial corporation's simple survey request turned into a multiyear engagement for us that includes supporting the client with attracting and pertaining talent and the delivery of a fully integrated total reward solution using one of our portals. And we leveraged our existing pension actuarial and outsourcing relationships with a leading regional health system into support for a rollout of major changes to their health and benefits program, which include the creation of a temporary health and welfare service center.

一家大型全球金融公司的簡單調查請求變成了我們多年的參與，其中包括支持客戶吸引和留住人才，以及使用我們的一個門戶網站提供完全整合的整體獎勵解決方案。我們利用與領先的地區衛生系統現有的退休金精算和外包關係，支持其健康和福利計劃的重大變革，其中包括建立臨時健康和福利服務中心。

We're confident HWC will provide a solid foundation for growth in 2024. And as we've discussed on prior calls, complexity in the human capital landscape continues to increase and finding the right solutions to our clients' unique needs in this environment requires a holistic, integrated and consultative approach. Our ability to move quickly and deliver the right resources at speed helps our clients take advantage of changing conditions and creates meaningful opportunities for HWC.

我們相信 HWC 將為 2024 年的成長奠定堅實的基礎。正如我們在先前的電話會議中討論的那樣，人力資本格局的複雜性持續增加，在這種環境下找到滿足客戶獨特需求的正確解決方案需要整體、綜合和協商的方法。我們快速行動並快速提供正確資源的能力可協助我們的客戶利用不斷變化的條件，並為 HWC 創造有意義的機會。

I'll highlight 2 trends we see as tailwinds for 2024. In our health business, clients are continuing to look for ways to address the increasing cost of health care around the world. They're to us for help with more effective plan management and specialty solutions that can improve their population health status. And in our retirement business, clients are increasingly looking to capitalize on the change in the rate environment by derisking their pension plans through annuity buy-ins and buyouts.

我將重點介紹我們認為 2024 年有利的兩個趨勢。在我們的健康業務中，客戶正在繼續尋找方法來解決世界各地日益增長的醫療保健成本問題。他們向我們尋求更有效的計劃管理和專業解決方案的幫助，以改善他們的人口健康。在我們的退休業務中，客戶越來越希望透過年金買進和買斷來降低退休金計畫的風險，從而利用利率環境的變化。

With the funded status of the largest U.S. corporate pension plans having ended 2023 at 100%, we expect this trend will support growth in that business during 2024.

截至 2023 年，美國最大的企業退休金計畫的資金到位率為 100%，我們預計這一趨勢將支持該業務在 2024 年的成長。

We also expect our growing momentum with smart connections this quarter to continue into 2024 and also extends to cross-selling between our 2 segments. We continue to arm all our colleagues with a solid understanding of our full range of services and the tools to identify and facilitate cross-segment opportunities.

我們也預計本季智慧連結的成長動能將持續到 2024 年，並且還將擴展到我們兩個細分市場之間的交叉銷售。我們繼續讓所有同事充分了解我們的全方位服務和工具，以識別和促進跨部門機會。

Two large client wins in the fourth quarter illustrate the power of this approach, a P&C insurance solution is a major media company that originated with one of our retirement colleagues and a multiyear health benefits design, administration and broking engagement that began with a benefits review arranged by a CRB column. The progress we've made in enhancing our growth engines at HWC and R&B over the past 2-plus years is also enabling us to drive increased margin expansion.

第四季度的兩個大客戶勝利說明了這種方法的力量，財產與意外傷害保險解決方案是一家大型媒體公司，由我們的一位退休同事發起，以及從安排福利審查開始的多年健康福利設計、管理和經紀業務透過 CRB 列。過去兩年多來，我們在增強 HWC 和 R&B 的成長引擎方面取得的進展也使我們能夠推動利潤率的擴大。

During the fourth quarter, we saw a continuing improvement in productivity and a tightened focus on cost discipline. Similarly, our transformation program continues to drive a significant benefit to our bottom line, enabling us to finish the year strong and to lay the foundation for another year of adjusted operating margin expansion.

在第四季度，我們看到生產力持續提高，並且更加重視成本控制。同樣，我們的轉型計劃繼續為我們的利潤帶來顯著效益，使我們能夠強勁地結束這一年，並為下一年調整後的營業利潤率擴張奠定基礎。

We realized $37 million of incremental annualized savings from our transformation program during the fourth quarter, bringing the total to $337 million in cumulative annualized savings since the program's inception. Thanks to the success and momentum of the program, we have been able to identify additional savings and accordingly, are raising our cumulative run rate transformation savings target from $380 million to $425 million by the end of 2024.

第四季度，我們的轉型計畫實現了 3,700 萬美元的增量年化節省，使自該計畫啟動以來累計年化節省總額達到 3.37 億美元。由於該計劃的成功和勢頭，我們已經能夠實現額外的節省，相應地，到 2024 年底，我們的累計運行率轉型節省目標從 3.8 億美元提高到 4.25 億美元。

Looking ahead, we're confident that we're on the right path to achieve our 2024 targets of continued mid-single-digit organic revenue growth leading to at least $9.9 billion in total revenue, adjusted operating margins of 22.5% to 23.5%, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $15.40 to $17 and additional improvement in our free cash flow margin. Andrew will touch on our 2024 guidance in more detail shortly.

展望未來，我們相信我們正走在正確的道路上，實現2024 年的目標，即持續實現中個位數有機收入增長，從而實現總收入至少​​99 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為22.5% 至23.5 %，調整後的稀釋每股收益為 15.40 美元至 17 美元，我們的自由現金流利潤率進一步提高。 Andrew 很快就會更詳細地介紹我們的 2024 年指導。

In closing, our performance in 2023 reflected our hard work to grow, simplify and transform our business over the past 2-plus years. I'm proud of the progress we've made and excited about the opportunities ahead. Based on our momentum and our healthy pipeline, I'm confident we can deliver continued sustainable and profitable growth in 2024 and beyond. I want to thank our colleagues for their dedication, service and continued commitment to our clients and to WTW.

最後，我們 2023 年的業績反映了我們在過去兩年多的時間裡為發展、簡化和轉型業務所做的努力。我為我們所取得的進步感到自豪，並對未來的機會感到興奮。基於我們的發展勢頭和健康的產品線，我相信我們能夠在 2024 年及以後實現持續、可持續和盈利的成長。我要感謝我們的同事對我們的客戶和 WTW 的奉獻、服務和持續承諾。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

然後，我會將電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. As Carl mentioned, we finished the year with strong momentum, putting us in a solid position to achieve our 2024 targets, and I'd like to share some further details on our financial results.

謝謝，卡爾。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。正如卡爾所提到的，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，為實現 2024 年的目標奠定了堅實的基礎，我想分享一些有關我們財務業績的更多細節。

We delivered organic revenue growth of 6% in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year growth rate to 8%. The ramp-up in productivity of our investment hires, our specialization strategy and Risk & Broking and the ongoing demand for our benefits and human capital services in HWC continue to fuel the strong top line growth. Alongside this robust growth, we also drove margin expansion for both the quarter and full year at the enterprise level and in each of our segments. The result was adjusted diluted earnings per share of $7.44 for the quarter and $40.49 for the year.

第四季我們實現了 6% 的有機收入成長，使全年成長率達到 8%。我們的投資員工生產力的提高、我們的專業化策略和風險與經紀以及對 HWC 福利和人力資本服務的持續需求繼續推動強勁的營收成長。除了這種強勁的成長之外，我們還推動了企業層面和每個細分市場的季度和全年利潤率擴張。調整後的季度攤薄每股收益為 7.44 美元，全年攤薄後每股收益為 40.49 美元。

Next, I'll spend some time reviewing our segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. Health, Wealth & Career generated revenue growth of 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year and finished the year with 6% growth.

接下來，我將花一些時間回顧我們的細分結果。請注意，為了提供與前期的可比性，除非另有明確說明，否則有關我們分部業績的所有評論都將基於有機基礎。與去年第四季相比，健康、財富和職業收入成長了 4%，全年成長了 6%。

Going into 2024, we feel confident in the outlook and expect another year of similarly positive results for the segment. Revenue for health increased 6% for the quarter or 5% when excluding the impact of some modest book of business activity. We delivered solid growth across all regions driven by increased brokerage income and the continued expansion of our global benefits management client portfolio in Europe and international. Wealth grew 5% in the fourth quarter. Retirement growth was driven by increased project work related to derisking activity in North America as well as additional project work in the pension brokerage in Europe.

進入 2024 年，我們對前景充滿信心，並預計該領域在新的一年將取得類似的積極成果。本季健康業務收入成長了 6%，如果排除一些適度的商業活動的影響，則成長 5%。在經紀收入增加以及歐洲和國際全球福利管理客戶組合持續擴張的推動下，我們在所有地區實現了穩健成長。第四季財富成長了5%。退休金成長是由北美去風險活動相關項目工作的增加以及歐洲退休金經紀業務的額外專案工作所推動的。

Investments also contributed significantly to growth for the quarter, reflecting new client acquisitions and higher fees. Career delivered 6% growth in the quarter, driven by increased compensation survey sales, executive compensation and Board advisory services and project work related to employee experience. Benefits Delivery & Outsourcing generated 3% growth in the quarter. The increase was be driven by higher volumes and placements of Medicare Advantage and life policies in our individual marketplace business and increased project activity and benefits outsourcing.

投資也為本季的成長做出了重大貢獻，反映出新客戶的收購和費用的上漲。在薪酬調查銷售、高階主管薪酬和董事會諮詢服務以及與員工體驗相關的專案工作增加的推動下，本季職業生涯實現了 6% 的成長。福利交付和外包在本季度實現了 3% 的成長。這一增長是由於我們個人市場業務中 Medicare Advantage 和人壽保單的數量和投放量增加以及項目活動和福利外包的增加所推動的。

HWC's operating margin increased 150 basis points compared to the prior fourth quarter to 40.5%, primarily driven by transformation savings. For the full year, HWC's operating margin increased 190 basis points over prior year to 28%. Risk & Broking revenue was up an exceptional 12% on an organic basis for the fourth quarter.

HWC 的營業利潤率較上一季成長 150 個基點，達到 40.5%，這主要是由於轉型節省的推動。全年來看，HWC 的營業利潤率比上年增長 190 個基點，達到 28%。第四季風險與經紀業務收入有機成長 12%。

Interest income was $27 million for the quarter, up $17 million from the fourth quarter last year. Note that beginning with Q1 2024 results, we plan to include the impact of investment income on organic growth at the segment and enterprise levels in our materials.

該季度利息收入為 2,700 萬美元，比去年第四季增加 1,700 萬美元。請注意，從 2024 年第一季業績開始，我們計劃在我們的材料中納入投資收入對部門和企業層面有機成長的影響。

For the full year, Risk & Broking grew 10% organically. We are expecting mid-single digit or better organic revenue growth for the segment in 2024, with continued contributions from our investments in talent and platforms as we identify and pursue opportunities in line with our specialization strategy.

風險與經紀業務全年有機成長 10%。我們預計 2024 年該細分市場將實現中個位數或更好的有機收入成長，隨著我們根據我們的專業化策略識別和尋求機會，我們對人才和平台的投資將繼續做出貢獻。

Corporate Risk & Broking had another strong quarter, growing 12% and continuing the organic revenue growth trajectory we have seen in the business over the last couple of quarters. Higher levels of new business activity, improved client retention and increased renewable revenue from rate increases drove robust organic revenue growth.

企業風險與經紀業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度，成長了 12%，並延續了過去幾季我們在該業務中看到的有機收入成長軌跡。新業務活動水準的提高、客戶保留率的提高以及費率上漲帶來的可再生能源收入的增加推動了有機收入的強勁增長。

Our specialty lines continue to be major contributors to the strong growth performance, led globally by natural resources, facultative, ‘FINEX’ Financial Solutions, crisis management and construction. Strong growth across CRB in Europe was led by P&C retail, facultative, Natural Resources and FINEX. North America CRB benefited from strong new business in construction, Natural Resources, marine, aerospace, real estate and hospitality and leisure as we saw strong demand in the industries in which we specialize.

我們的專業產品線繼續成為業績強勁成長的主要貢獻者，其中自然資源、臨時性、「FINEX」金融解決方案、危機管理和建築在全球處於領先地位。歐洲 CRB 的強勁成長由財產與意外險零售、臨時保險、自然資源和 FINEX 引領。北美 CRB 受益於建築、自然資源、海洋、航空航太、房地產以及酒店和休閒領域的強勁新業務，因為我們看到了我們專業行業的強勁需求。

Our international region also contributed with exceptional organic growth, including strong growth across all subregions led by Latin America. In the Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 8% over the prior year period on top of a strong comparable, driven by increased sales in Technology Solutions, including strong new business and higher project activity. R&B's operating margin was 32.9% for the fourth quarter, a 460 basis point increase over the prior year fourth quarter.

我們的國際區域也貢獻了卓越的有機成長，包括以拉丁美洲為首的所有次區域的強勁成長。在保險諮詢和技術業務中，受技術解決方案銷售成長（包括強勁的新業務和更高的專案活動）的推動，營收比去年同期成長了 8%，可比性強勁。 R&B 第四季營業利潤率為 32.9%，比去年第四季成長 460 個基點。

We continue to see our hiring efforts yield strong results and rising productivity, driving greater operating leverage. The margin also benefited from transformation, continued expense discipline and tailwinds from increased interest income, partially offset by some modest foreign exchange activity and investments in people and technology platforms.

我們繼續看到我們的招募工作取得了良好的成果，生產力不斷提高，從而推動了更大的營運槓桿。利潤率也受益於轉型、持續的支出紀律以及利息收入增加帶來的推動力，但部分被一些溫和的外匯活動以及對人員和技術平台的投資所抵消。

For the full year, R&B's operating margin increased 60 basis points over prior year to 21.8%. As Carl mentioned, we plan to continue to opportunistically invest in talent and strategic initiatives in this segment in line with our previous announcement.

全年來看，R&B 的營業利潤率比上年增長 60 個基點，達到 21.8%。正如卡爾所提到的，我們計劃根據我們先前的公告，繼續機會主義地投資於該領域的人才和戰略舉措。

For 2024, we continue to expect margin expansion on a full year basis. Given the business seasonality and uncertain pacing of the investments, please note that the scale of R&B margin expansion may vary from quarter-to-quarter. At the enterprise level, adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 34.2%, a 180 basis point increase over prior year. For the full year, we saw 110 basis points of margin improvement to 22%.

對於 2024 年，我們繼續預計全年利潤率將擴大。鑑於業務季節性和投資節奏的不確定性，請注意，R&B 利潤率擴張的規模可能會因季度而異。在企業層面，本季調整後營業利益率為 34.2%，較上年同期成長 180 個基點。全年利潤率提高了 110 個基點，達到 22%。

The benefits of our transformation program drove a large part of our margin expansion for the year. We had $37 million of incremental annualized transformation savings for the fourth quarter, bringing the total of $337 million since the program's inception.

我們的轉型計劃的好處推動了我們今年利潤率的成長。第四季我們的年化轉型節省增量為 3,700 萬美元，自該計劃啟動以來總計節省了 3.37 億美元。

As Carl mentioned, we are raising our transformation savings target to $425 million by the end of 2024. The additional savings will primarily come from technology modernization and process optimization which we expect to further reduce our cost structure and help unlock additional long-term growth and cost savings opportunities.

正如Carl 所提到的，我們將在2024 年底將轉型節省目標提高到4.25 億美元。額外的節省將主要來自技術現代化和流程優化，我們預計這將進一步降低我們的成本結構，並有助於實現額外的長期成長和節省成本的機會。

The total amount of cost to achieve is now estimated at $1.125 billion. Along with their direct return on investment, these additions to the transformation program will serve as a catalyst for additional improvement by creating an infrastructure from which to drive further efficiencies.

目前估計要實現的總成本為 11.25 億美元。除了直接投資回報之外，轉型計畫中的這些新增內容還將透過創建基礎設施來進一步提高效率，從而成為進一步改進的催化劑。

Our unallocated net was $296 million for the full year 2023, an increase of $31 million over prior year, primarily due to a headwind from a onetime favorable item reflected in the prior year balance. Foreign exchange was a $0.02 tailwind on adjusted EPS for the quarter and a $0.06 headwind for the year. At current spot rates, we expect foreign exchange to have a $0.02 headwind on adjusted EPS for 2024 with no impact in Q1.

2023 年全年，我們的未分配淨額為 2.96 億美元，比上一年增加了 3,100 萬美元，這主要是由於上一年餘額中反映的一度有利項目的不利影響。外匯對本季調整後每股收益有 0.02 美元的順風作用，對全年每股收益有 0.06 美元的逆風作用。以目前的即期匯率，我們預期外匯將對 2024 年調整後每股盈餘產生 0.02 美元的阻力，對第一季沒有影響。

We recorded $109 million in pension income for 2023, relatively in line with our expectations. For 2024, we expect $88 million in pension income with the decrease driven by market performance and interest rate movements.

2023 年我們的退休金收入為 1.09 億美元，相對符合我們的預期。 2024 年，我們預計退休金收入將達到 8,800 萬美元，但由於市場表現和利率變動而導致退休金收入下降。

Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 15.7% versus 17.7% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 19.1% compared to 22.2% for the fourth quarter of 2022. Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the year was 16.8% versus 15.4% in the prior year. And lastly, our adjusted tax rate for the year was 20.9%, consistent with prior year.

本季我們的美國 GAAP 稅率為 15.7%，而去年同期為 17.7%。我們本季的調整後稅率為 19.1%，而 2022 年第四季為 22.2%。我們本年度的美國 GAAP 稅率為 16.8%，而前一年為 15.4%。最後，我們今年調整後的稅率為 20.9%，與前一年一致。

Notably, there were nonrecurring items in Q4, which resulted in onetime tax items in our 2023 adjusted tax rate. Excluding these benefits, our adjusted tax rate would have been 22.4%, and our adjusted diluted EPS would have been $14.22. We expect our full year adjusted tax rate in 2024 to be closer to our 2023 adjusted tax rate, excluding these onetime benefits.

值得注意的是，第四季度存在非經常性項目，導致我們的 2023 年調整後稅率中出現了一次性稅項。排除這些福利，我們調整後的稅率將為 22.4%，調整後稀釋後每股盈餘將為 14.22 美元。我們預計 2024 年全年調整後稅率將更接近 2023 年調整後稅率（不包括這些一次性福利）。

In 2023, we returned nearly $1.4 billion to our shareholders with share repurchases of $1 billion and dividends of $352 million. We continue to execute a disciplined capital allocation strategy and currently view share repurchases as an attractive use of capital to create long-term shareholder value. We expect to continue repurchasing our shares in 2024 under our current share repurchase authority of which approximately $1.3 billion remains. We expect approximately $750 million of share repurchases in 2024, subject to market conditions, among other relevant factors.

2023 年，我們向股東返還近 14 億美元，其中回購股份 10 億美元，股利 3.52 億美元。我們繼續執行嚴格的資本配置策略，目前將股票回購視為創造長期股東價值的一種有吸引力的資本用途。我們預計將在 2024 年根據目前的股票回購授權繼續回購我們的股票，其中還剩約 13 億美元。我們預計 2024 年將進行約 7.5 億美元的股票回購，具體取決於市場狀況和其他相關因素。

We generated free cash flow of $1.2 billion in 2023, representing a free cash flow margin of 12.6%, above our target of 12%. The improvement from the prior year was driven by the nonrecurrence of onetime headwinds reflected in the comparable period, operating margin expansion and improvement in TRANZACT's cash flow. These improvements were partially offset by increased transformation program-related costs.

2023 年，我們產生了 12 億美元的自由現金流，自由現金流利潤率為 12.6%，高於我們 12% 的目標。與前一年相比的改善是由於可比較期間不再出現一次性不利因素、營業利潤率擴大以及 TRANZACT 現金流的改善。這些改進部分被轉型計劃相關成本的增加所抵銷。

Turning to our 2024 financial targets. We continue to expect mid-single-digit organic revenue growth as we work towards our revenue goal of $9.9 billion-plus. We expect our adjusted operating margin to expand toward the high end of the 22.5% to 23.5% range. We also expect to deliver on our adjusted diluted earnings per share target of $15.40 to $17. Finally, we expect incremental improvement in our free cash flow margin.

轉向我們的 2024 年財務目標。隨著我們努力實現 99 億美元以上的收入目標，我們繼續預期有機收入將實現中個位數成長。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將擴大至 22.5% 至 23.5% 範圍的高端。我們也預計將實現調整後的稀釋每股收益 15.40 美元至 17 美元的目標。最後，我們預期自由現金流利潤率將逐步改善。

Our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 are a testament to our continued strategic progress, our operational execution and our colleagues' relentless focus on serving our clients. We are very pleased with our performance and expect our momentum to continue into 2024 as we focus on delivering on our targets.

我們第四季和 2023 年全年的業績證明了我們持續的策略進展、我們的營運執行以及我們的同事對為客戶服務的不懈專注。我們對我們的表現非常滿意，並希望我們的勢頭能夠持續到 2024 年，因為我們專注於實現我們的目標。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Gregory Peters 和 Raymond James 的線路。

And I'm going to say that it does feel like you finally stabilized the platform last year. So it does -- it should bode well for your future. On the mid-single-digit guidance outlook for '24, inside Risk & Broking, can you give us a sense of how you think the benefit on new business and/or versus rate increases is going to run through the Risk & Broking line. And then on the Health, Wealth & Career, the BD&O line was a little weak in the fourth -- lower in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about your outlook there?

我想說的是，去年確實感覺你終於穩定了這個平台。確實如此——這對你的未來來說應該是個好兆頭。關於風險與經紀業務內部 24 年的中個位數指導前景，您能否讓我們了解一下您認為新業務和/或相對於利率上漲的好處將如何貫穿風險與經紀業務。然後在健康、財富和職業方面，BD&O 線在第四季度有點疲軟——第四季度較低。您能談談您對那裡的看法嗎？

So starting with R&B. Let me begin with the effect of rate and which we frankly don't view as a significant headwind or tailwind across the portfolio in terms of how it's mattered for 2023 and going into 2024. The markets remain a bit mixed in terms of what's going on. The effect of, however, the investment we've made over the last few years in talent and the reorientation of the business towards specialization is what we feel has really made a difference for us and will continue to differentiate us going into 2024.

所以從 R&B 開始。讓我從利率的影響開始，坦白說，就其對2023 年和進入2024 年的影響而言，我們並不認為利率對整個投資組合構成重大逆風或順風。就正在發生的情況而言，市場仍然有點複雜。 。然而，我們認為過去幾年在人才方面的投資以及業務向專業化方向的重新定位所產生的影響確實對我們產生了影響，並將在 2024 年繼續讓我們脫穎而出。

I mean our approach to specialization sets us apart from others in the industry. We've constructed this around specialized businesses, not just practices, focused around the industry divisions, right? And these are businesses with national or even global P&Ls, dedicated personnel, directly responsible and accountable and that just ties to our specialization approach, which has resulted in our global lines growing much faster than our overall book as we talked about earlier.

我的意思是，我們的專業化方法使我們在業界脫穎而出。我們圍繞著專業業務（而不僅僅是實踐）建立了這個系統，並專注於行業部門，對吧？這些企業擁有全國甚至全球的損益表，有專門的人員，直接負責和負責，這與我們的專業化方法緊密相關，這導致我們的全球業務增長速度遠遠快於我們之前談到的整體業務。

With respect to HWC, looking forward, we're very confident in our pipeline, and we do anticipate HWC is going to have mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2024. The current human capital landscape is highly complex as a result of rising health care costs, a changing interest rate environment that impacts pension derisking activity. And we see these trends as tailwinds for '24. And as we mentioned in our opening remarks, we expect our growing momentum with our smart connection strategy to continue in 2024. And these increased cross-selling opportunities will be another HWC revenue tailwind.

就 HWC 而言，展望未來，我們對我們的管道非常有信心，我們預計 HWC 將在 2024 年實現中個位數收入增長。由於健康狀況的不斷提高，當前的人力資本格局非常複雜護理成本，不斷變化的利率環境影響退休金去風險活動。我們將這些趨勢視為 24 世紀的順風車。正如我們在開場白中所提到的，我們預計智慧連結策略的成長動能將在 2024 年繼續下去。這些增加的交叉銷售機會將成為 HWC 收入的另一個推動力。

Okay. That makes sense. I wanted to pivot to the free cash flow margin expectations, Slide 22 of your investor deck. And what I'm focused on is that 16% plus long-term objectives and I was looking for some more color inside some of those comments that you made in the slide about where you're going to get some positive benefits and some negative benefits. And when you think about getting to that 16%, is that like a 5-year target, a 10-year target? Or what kind of parameters are you putting on management around that objective?

好的。這就說得通了。我想轉向自由現金流利潤率預期，請參考投資者幻燈片 22。我關注的是 16% 以上的長期目標，我一直在尋找您在幻燈片中所做的一些評論中更多的色彩，這些評論涉及您將在哪裡獲得一些積極的好處和一些消極的好處。當你考慮達到 16% 時，這像是 5 年目標還是 10 年目標？或者您圍繞該目標對管理設定了什麼樣的參數？

Yes. Greg, it's Andrew. Thanks for the question. The 12.6% margin in 2023, that was good progress on a year-over-year basis. We do expect incremental improvement in 2024 as we work towards the long-term free cash flow margin target. We expect to see that margin improvement in 2024 and beyond, really through 3 main factors.

是的。格雷格，這是安德魯。謝謝你的提問。 2023 年利潤率為 12.6%，與去年同期取得了良好進展。我們確實預計 2024 年會逐步改善，因為我們正在努力實現長期自由現金流利潤率目標。我們預計 2024 年及以後利潤率將有所改善，這實際上是透過 3 個主要因素實現的。

So the first one is going to be greater profitability as a result of driving margin expansion. We intend to do this not just through transformation and operating leverage but also by improving our business mix for example, deepening our footprint in the area of MGAs, MGUs, things of that nature.

因此，第一個目標是透過推動利潤率擴張來提高獲利能力。我們打算不僅透過轉型和營運槓桿來實現這一目標，還透過改善我們的業務組合來實現這一目標，例如，深化我們在 MGA、MGU 等此類性質領域的足跡。

The second piece is the abatement of the transformation-related spend, which we're expecting through the first half of 2025. The third piece is improved cash conversion in the TRANZACT business which we expect to be positive within the next few years. That's going to come as a result of the maturation of the business as well as the improving -- changing the product mix within that business.

第二部分是減少與轉型相關的支出，我們預計這筆支出將持續到 2025 年上半年。第三部分是改善 TRANZACT 業務的現金轉換，我們預計在未來幾年內將出現積極的結果。這是業務成熟以及業務內產品組合不斷變化的結果。

Over the near term, progress on some of those factors is going to be temporarily offset by cash investments in HWC and R&B for product development to support future growth, things like our LifeSight business where we continue to invest new ICT software. And I also mentioned the MGA and MGU business as an example of that.

在短期內，其中一些因素的進展將暫時被 HWC 和 R&B 的現金投資所抵消，用於產品開發以支持未來的成長，例如我們繼續投資新的 ICT 軟體的 LifeSight 業務。我還提到了 MGA 和 MGU 業務作為例子。

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自愛麗絲·格林斯潘與富國銀行的對話。

My first question is on the EPS guidance. You guys reaffirmed the guidance that you gave us in July, but it sounds like you expect to come in at the high end of the operating margin target. And pension, I believe, is a little bit favorable relative to the midpoint of the guidance update last summer. So why not up or tight in the range towards the upside? Do you feel like you could come in towards the upside of the range and maybe there's just some level of conservatism to start the year?

我的第一個問題是關於 EPS 指導。你們重申了 7 月給我們的指導，但聽起來你們預計會達到營業利潤率目標的高端。我認為，退休金相對於去年夏天指導更新的中點有點有利。那為什麼不在上行區間內向上或收緊呢？您是否覺得您可以進入該區間的上行方向，也許在今年開始時會有一定程度的保守主義？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Elyse. So we remain confident in the EPS target range of $15.40 to $17 for '24 that we had set out. As we laid out in our supplemental materials, you can see the puts and takes there, a meaningful portion coming from operating income, along with the increase in the share repurchase activity that we mentioned about $750 million expected there. The offset there, as you mentioned, some of the reduced pension income, that's going to be about a 14% share headwind as well as the increase in interest expense and adjusted tax rate. And when we thought through all of those puts and takes, we felt still very confident about landing within the range there.

是的。謝謝你的提問，愛麗絲。因此，我們對我們設定的 24 年每股收益目標範圍 15.40 美元至 17 美元仍然充滿信心。正如我們在補充資料中列出的那樣，您可以看到其中的看跌期權和賣出期權，其中很大一部分來自營業收入，以及我們提到的預計約 7.5 億美元的股票回購活動的增加。正如您所提到的，退休金收入的部分減少將帶來約 14% 的份額逆風以及利息支出和調整後稅率的增加。當我們仔細考慮所有這些看跌期權時，我們對落在該範圍內仍然非常有信心。

And then my second question is on the share repurchase guidance. So Andrew, I think you said $750 million in '24, that's lower than what you guys bought back in '23, yet your free cash flow conversion should improve, right, from the '23 level? And then, I guess, even though it's not a '24 event, right, in the first half of '25, right, you guys, I believe, should receive $750 million from the Willis RE earnout. So why would it buybacks be more than $750 million in '24 or is M&A part of the equation. I'm just trying to square the free cash flow improvement and the lower level of buyback in '24.

我的第二個問題是關於股票回購指引。所以安德魯，我想你說 24 年的 7.5 億美元，這比你們在 23 年買回來的要低，但你的自由現金流轉換應該比 23 年的水平有所改善，對吧？然後，我想，即使這不是 24 年的活動，對吧，在 25 年上半年，對吧，我相信你們應該從 Willis RE 收益中獲得 7.5 億美元。那麼為什麼 24 年的回購額會超過 7.5 億美元，或者說併購也是其中的一部分。我只是想平衡自由現金流的改善和 24 年較低的回購水準。

Sure. The $750 million, right, is our expectation for the year. The debt level is lower than in '23, where we did $1 billion. You have to keep in mind that throughout '23, we took on some incremental leverage in May and throughout the year, capitalized on the opportunity to buy more shares when there was pressure on the stock price. .

當然。 7.5 億美元（右）是我們今年的預期。債務水準低於 23 年，當時我們的債務水準為 10 億美元。你必須記住，整個 23 年，我們在 5 月和全年增加了一些槓桿，利用股價壓力時購買更多股票的機會。 。

So the $750 million is not necessarily static. We continuously monitor cash levels, market conditions. And if the opportunity presents itself to accelerate share repurchases, we'll take advantage of it, just like we did last year.

因此，7.5 億美元不一定是靜態的。我們持續監控現金水準和市場狀況。如果有機會加速股票回購，我們將利用它，就像我們去年所做的那樣。

We continue, as you might expect, to evaluate all of our options for capital allocation as we always have, which does include share buybacks, internal investment and carefully considered strategic M&A as part of that to ensure that we're maximizing value creation for our shareholders.

正如您可能期望的那樣，我們將一如既往地評估我們所有的資本配置選項，其中包括股票回購、內部投資和經過仔細考慮的策略併購，以確保我們最大限度地為我們的公司創造價值。股東。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·考克斯。

Maybe a similar question to when you've already received on free cash flow in some ways. But if I exclude the $430 million or so cash restructuring charges this year, I get to a free cash flow margin over 17% in 2023. Is that correct? And when you think ahead to a future where restructuring spend is 0, and the TRANZACT free cash flow drag has improved. Couldn't there be meaningful upside to the 16% long-term free cash flow margin target? Am I thinking about that correctly? Or are there any headwinds I'm not considering?

也許與您已經以某種方式收到自由現金流時有類似的問題。但如果我排除今年約 4.3 億美元的現金重組費用，到 2023 年我的自由現金流利潤率將超過 17%。這是正確的嗎？當你預見到重組支出為 0 的未來時，TRANZACT 自由現金流阻力已經改善。 16% 的長期自由現金流利潤率目標難道不會有有意義的上升空間嗎？我的想法正確嗎？還是有什麼我沒有考慮到的阻力？

I think generally, over the long term, I think you're thinking about the math correctly there, Rob. I focus you on the plus symbol after the 16% that we've got in our materials and our long-term objective there. It does take time for some of those headwinds to abate. Think about TRANZACT, for example, is that when that turns free cash flow positive, it's still a drag on free cash flow margin, right, because it's not necessarily converting at the same rate as the rest of the business. And of course, the revenue there will continue to grow as well. So there's other dynamics that factor into the margin calculation.

我認為，從長遠來看，我認為你對數學的思考是正確的，羅布。我將重點放在我們材料中 16% 後面的加號以及我們的長期目標。其中一些阻力確實需要時間才能減弱。例如，想想 TRANZACT，當自由現金流轉為正數時，它仍然會拖累自由現金流利潤率，對吧，因為它不一定以與其他業務相同的速度轉換。當然，那裡的收入也會繼續成長。因此，還有其他動態因素會影響保證金計算。

Okay. And just a follow-up on expenses in the Risk & Broking business. Could you talk about the incremental expense savings in the quarter versus last quarter, some of the things that you started to enact last quarter? And then just some more color on how sustainable those savings are outside of the transformation program.

好的。這只是風險與經紀業務支出的後續行動。您能否談談本季與上季相比的增量費用節省，以及您上季開始實施的一些措施？然後再對轉型計劃之外的這些節省的可持續性進行更多說明。

Yes. There's -- we talked about, I think, ongoing expense discipline across the platform, that's not just specific to R&B. But we balance the focus on expenses with the revenue growth to make sure that we're looking to generate operating leverage on top of the transformation savings across the platform. And obviously, we've been heavily investing in that business, which is weight on that for certain parts during the year. Carl, anything you'd add to that?

是的。我認為，我們討論了整個平台持續的費用紀律，這不僅僅是 R&B 特有的。但我們平衡了對支出和收入成長的關注，以確保我們希望在整個平台的轉型節省之上產生營運槓桿。顯然，我們一直在該業務上進行了大量投資，這對今年某些部分的業務產生了影響。卡爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I guess as we've highlighted in prior quarters, we have a substantial investment in that business, principally in talent, right? And now that our talent base is back to full strength, right, we're concentrating on strategic and opportunistic hires to capitalize on the opportunities we see ahead and the geographies that we offer the greatest potential for profitable growth, right? So I think it's just a momentum story at this point as opposed to a rebuild story, which leads to a smoother pattern of expense growth.

是的。我想正如我們在前幾個季度所強調的那樣，我們對該業務進行了大量投資，主要是在人才方面，對吧？現在我們的人才基礎已恢復到全部實力，對吧，我們正在專注於戰略性和機會主義的招聘，以利用我們看到的未來​​機會以及我們提供最大盈利增長潛力的地區，對嗎？因此，我認為目前這只是一個動力故事，而不是重建故事，這會導致費用成長更加穩定。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Back just to the free cash flow. I believe you said one of the offsets was cash investments and product development. So I guess, should we be looking at your historical CapEx ratio divided by revenues. And I guess, are you alluding to maybe I'd be -- it'll maybe kind of rise to a bit of a higher level than it is currently as one of the offsets. I don't want to -- or am I splitting hairs in terms of some of your commentary?

回到自由現金流。我相信你說過抵消措施之一是現金投資和產品開發。所以我想，我們應該看看你的歷史資本支出比率除以收入。我想，你是在暗示我可能會——作為抵消之一，它可能會上升到比目前更高的水平。我不想——還是我對你的一些評論感到吹毛求疵？

Yes. No, it's a good question. Just on the -- I'd say on the margin, right, we would expect it to increase a little bit. Just recall, right, it's been somewhat depressed from a spend ratio perspective over the last couple of years. Obviously, there's been a meaningful uptick as it relates to transformation spend and CapEx, but BAU CapEx, as we continue to build out the platform and invest in the future would be a modest temporary offset to some of the tailwinds that I mentioned earlier.

是的。不，這是一個好問題。只是在——我想說的是，在邊際上，對吧，我們預計它會增加一點。請回想一下，對吧，從支出比率的角度來看，過去幾年的情況有些低迷。顯然，與轉型支出和資本支出相關的BAU 資本支出出現了有意義的上升，但隨著我們繼續建立平台並投資於未來，BAU 資本支出將是對我之前提到的一些不利因素的適度暫時抵消。

Okay. That makes sense. And really good color on the HWC segment. Specifically, it was interesting to hear retirement, I know Willis has a leading defined benefit retirement solutions segment, which I -- I think historically, you guys have talked about that being kind of a not as high of a growth rate or maybe not much of a long-term grower.

好的。這就說得通了。 HWC 部分的色彩非常好。具體來說，聽到退休的消息很有趣，我知道威利斯有一個領先的固定福利退休解決方案領域，我認為從歷史上看，你們已經談到了增長率不那麼高，或者可能不高。長期種植者的。

But it sounds like you said in the near term, because of the environment, it is a growing business, which is kind of a tailwind to '24. I just want to make sure I'm understanding those comments correctly?

但聽起來就像你在短期內所說的那樣，由於環境的原因，這是一項不斷增長的業務，這對 24 世紀來說是一種順風。我只是想確保我正確理解這些評論？

Yes, I think you've got that right. We see several factors as working for us going forward. And we do have the market-leading retirement business. Given the economic environment we find ourselves in and the funding status that our pension clients enjoy, right, there still remains a substantial appetite for derisking strategies. And with the funding positions are better, the capabilities to do that is increased. And we're well equipped to help our clients with that journey.

是的，我認為你說得對。我們認為有幾個因素對我們的未來有利。我們確實擁有市場領先的退休業務。考慮到我們所處的經濟環境以及我們的退休金客戶所享有的融資狀況，人們仍然對去風險策略抱持著很大的興趣。隨著資金狀況的改善，實現這一目標的能力也隨之增強。我們有能力幫助我們的客戶完成這趟旅程。

In addition, the investments we've made in growing areas of the pension landscape, such as the LifeSight business, Andrew, talked about just earlier, have enabled our growth in a number of economies where these strategies, master trusts are an attractive place for our corporate clients to gain efficiency in the provision of retirement.

此外，我們在退休金領域不斷增長的領域進行的投資，例如安德魯剛才談到的LifeSight 業務，使我們在許多經濟體中實現了增長，在這些經濟體中，這些策略、主信託對投資者來說是一個有吸引力的地方。我們的企業客戶能夠提高提供​​退休金的效率。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about the TRANZACT, what your experience was this quarter. The BDO business organic growth was below average for the business as a whole. Did you see any kind of change in that market? And does it influence your long-term outlook for the business?

我想知道您能否簡單談談 TRANZACT，以及您本季的經歷。 BDO 業務的有機成長低於整個業務的平均水準。您看到該市場有什麼變化嗎？它會影響您對業務的長期前景嗎？

Well, I guess the way we look at it is we run TRANZACT for growth opportunities if they are profitable growth opportunities. And if the spend we're seeing that's necessary to generate a policy commission is economically sensible. We just don't do it. So we manage that business, I think, balancing growth and profits, and we -- this year found ourselves in a place where we made, I think, a very sensible choice given the conditions we're facing.

嗯，我想我們看待這個問題的方式是，如果成長機會是有利可圖的，我們就運行 TRANZACT 來尋找成長機會。如果我們看到的產生政策委員會所需的支出在經濟上是合理的。我們只是不這樣做。因此，我認為，我們管理該業務，平衡成長和利潤，今年我們發現自己處於一個位置，我認為，考慮到我們面臨的條件，我們做出了一個非常明智的選擇。

And Mark, just to add one thing to that. If you recall, we had some revenue time into Q3 from that business, which I think we had mentioned on the last call so that did factor into the quarterly growth rate within that component of HWC. So I think the best way to think about it is if you look at the full year growth rate really representative of where we expect the business to head in the future.

馬克，我想補充一件事。如果你還記得的話，我們在第三季度從該業務中獲得了一些收入，我想我們在上次電話會議中已經提到過這一點，因此這確實影響了 HWC 該組成部分的季度增長率。因此，我認為最好的思考方式是，看看全年成長率是否真正代表了我們預期業務未來的發展方向。

Understood. And then the strategic client engagement, what was the motivation for that? And are there any particular verticals that you think are most promising?

明白了。然後是戰略客戶參與，其動機是什麼？您認為有哪些特定的垂直領域最有前景？

Yes. I think you're referring to the large complex accounts team, is that right?

是的。我認為您指的是大型複雜的客戶團隊，對嗎？

Yes, that's right. .

恩，那就對了。 。

Yes. I mean we think the combination of our global footprint, our specialization approach and our industry-leading analytics offer a compelling proposition to clients facing. The challenge is that this macroeconomic environment can leave them to, right? So to the extent we can help our clients manage things like natural disaster, social inflation, geopolitical complex, right, our customized tools, our specialist approach could help ensure that clients get the best return for their premium dollar across their entire portfolio of risks. That's what that's all about.

是的。我的意思是，我們認為我們的全球足跡、專業化方法和領先業界的分析相結合，為面臨的客戶提供了令人信服的主張。挑戰在於，這種宏觀經濟環境會讓他們這麼做，對嗎？因此，在我們可以幫助客戶管理自然災害、社會通貨膨脹、地緣政治複雜性等問題的範圍內，我們的客製化工具、我們的專業方法可以幫助確保客戶在整個創投組合中獲得最佳的溢價回報。這就是全部內容。

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question you guys had called out, I think it was about a 200 basis point adverse impact to free cash flow margins from TRANZACT in 2022. Could you just level set us on how much of a drag that was in 2023? And then it sounds like you guys are expecting it to be free cash flow positive in the near term, which is a little sooner than I had expected. So if you could just talk about what's driving that, it would be helpful.

我有一個你們提出的問題，我認為 TRANZACT 在 2022 年對自由現金流利潤率產生了大約 200 個基點的不利影響。你能否告訴我們 2023 年的拖累有多大？然後聽起來你們預計近期自由現金流為正，比我的預期還要早。因此，如果您能談談推動這一趨勢的因素，將會很有幫助。

Yes, sure. We had about 60 basis point year-over-year improvement in the free cash flow margin drag from that business. So quite pleased with the progress that we've made there as that business matures and as we think through the portfolio of products within TRANZACT.

是的，當然。該業務對自由現金流利潤率的拖累同比改善了約 60 個基點。隨著業務的成熟以及我們對 TRANZACT 內產品組合的思考，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

The drivers of getting to free cash flow positive within that business in the next few years is more focused on the product portfolio, different products have different cash conversion profiles. So we seek to balance that appropriately. As Carl mentioned, we run that business for profitable growth. So we're always making trade-off decisions there as part of that, and the business will continue to mature. So we think that will be a contributor to getting us to free cash flow positive into that business as well.

未來幾年該業務實現正自由現金流的驅動因素更集中在產品組合上，不同的產品有不同的現金轉換情況。因此，我們尋求適當的平衡。正如卡爾所提到的，我們經營這項業務是為了獲利成長。因此，作為其中的一部分，我們總是做出權衡決策，並且業務將繼續成熟。因此，我們認為這也將有助於我們為該業務帶來積極的自由現金流。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just, Carl, you had mentioned the specialty businesses have higher growth than the rest of the R&B segment. Could you just put some numbers around that and size how big your specialty businesses are. And what sort of growth rate they're growing at organically?

知道了。這很有幫助。也許只是，卡爾，你提到專業業務比 R&B 領域的其他業務有更高的成長。您能否提供一些數字來衡量您的專業業務有多大？他們的有機成長率是多少？

Yes. So I mean, what we classify as our specialized businesses are our global lines amount to about half of the portfolio for the CRB business. And I think we've used nearly twice the growth rate, a fair way of looking at it. So I think you can back into the relative math on that.

是的。所以我的意思是，我們將我們的專業業務歸類為我們的全球業務，約佔 CRB 業務組合的一半。我認為我們使用了近兩倍的成長率，這是一種公平的看待它的方式。所以我認為你可以回到這方面的相對數學。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Kligerman 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

So that R&B growth was an exceptional number at 12%. So I'm kind of curious, going forward, looking at new hires, Carl, I think you said that you'd be strategic and opportunistic. How should we think about new hires next year in terms of -- is it going to be flat, up a little, down a little? And then just on the strategic client engagement that you just touched on, again, still not quite clear on how that helps the specialty groups. I mean does it slow them down because now you've got new people involved in the process? Or just want to make sure that -- or understand how that's going to help boost the specialty as opposed to make it a little more complicated.

因此，R&B 的成長達到 12%，這是一個非凡的數字。所以我有點好奇，展望未來，尋找新員工，卡爾，我想你說過你會具有策略性和機會主義。我們該如何考慮明年的新員工——是持平、上升還是下降？然後，就您剛才提到的策略客戶參與而言，仍然不太清楚這如何幫助專業團隊。我的意思是，這是否會減慢他們的速度，因為現在有了新人參與這個過程？或者只是想確保這一點，或者了解這將如何幫助提升專業水平，而不是使其變得更加複雜。

Sure. First of all, with respect to talent acquisition plans, you're correct, I said we're focusing on strategic and opportunistic hiring. We've done -- I think Adam Garrard has done a fabulous job over the last couple of years with this team of building back this business to full strength. But we're always going to be on the prowl for talent, right, if we can find people who are attracted to our proposition, you can add value and revenue, we're going to be and continue to invest in that talent base. With regard to...

當然。首先，關於人才獲取計劃，你是對的，我說我們專注於策略性和機會性招募。我們已經做到了——我認為亞當·加勒德（Adam Garrard）在過去幾年中與這個團隊一起完成了出色的工作，使這項業務得到了全面的發展。但我們總是會尋找人才，對吧，如果我們能找到對我們的主張感興趣的人，就可以增加價值和收入，我們將繼續投資於該人才基礎。關於...

The bias would be slightly up in new hires then? Is that how I should take the opportunistic approach?

那麼新進員工的偏見會略有上升嗎？難道我就應該採取機會主義的態度嗎？

I think that -- I would anticipate that we are going to continue to be on the lookout for talent and the way we have, right, over the last several quarters, right? And we don't hire just for the sake of hiring, Andrew. We hire for where we can add value.

我認為——我預計我們將繼續尋找人才，並以過去幾季的方式繼續尋找人才，對嗎？我們不會只是為了僱用而僱用，安德魯。我們招募能夠增加價值的地方。

With regard to our strategic client engagement, I think I'd look at it this way, right? We're trying to deliver best-in-class service to our client base. And that involves making sure we understand their risks better than anybody else. And that is a specialization. And then it's fulfilling their needs, right? There's client engagement, which is equally important. So I view this as an and not a but.

關於我們的策略客戶參與，我想我會這樣看，對吧？我們正在努力為我們的客戶群提供一流的服務。這包括確保我們比其他人更了解他們的風險。這是一個專業。然後它就滿足了他們的需求，對嗎？還有客戶參與度，這也同樣重要。所以我認為這是一個而不是但是。

And one of the primary focuses of the strategic client engagement concept is really going to be a focus on the industry verticals, but in particular, think about Fortune 1000 type clients where risk profiles may be more expansive and more complex than other organizations.

策略客戶參與概念的主要焦點之一確實是對垂直行業的關注，但特別要考慮財富 1000 強類型的客戶，這些客戶的風險狀況可能比其他組織更廣泛、更複雜。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies 的對話。

I guess my first question actually goes back to Elyse's question earlier in the call. When we see guidance and we see some of the underlying pieces move a bit, namely, where we're seeing higher expectation of cost saves from restructuring. And at the same time, we see the EPS and margin guidance essentially remain unchanged. I just want to make sure and again, going back to Elyse's question, is there a degree of conservatism in there? Or are you seeing some offsets potentially that are keeping you at the unchanged EPS guidance?

我想我的第一個問題實際上可以追溯到 Elyse 在電話會議早些時候提出的問題。當我們看到指引時，我們發現一些基本部分發生了一些變化，即我們對重組節省成本的期望更高。同時，我們看到每股盈餘和利潤率指引基本上保持不變。我只是想再次確認一下，回到 Elyse 的問題，其中是否存在一定程度的保守主義？或者您看到一些潛在的抵銷因素使您的每股盈餘指引保持不變？

Yes. I think it's probably a little bit of both there. We are -- we want to make sure that we are focused on delivering on our commitments for 2024. And we talked about some of the puts and takes that we expect to play through 2024 as well.

是的。我想可能兩者都有一點。我們希望確保我們專注於兌現 2024 年的承諾。我們也討論了我們預計在 2024 年實施的一些措施。

Okay. And can you maybe elaborate a little bit on kind of what the variables would be that would get you to the upper end versus the lower end of that guidance, what the main variables that you foresee today are.

好的。您能否詳細說明哪些變數可以使您達到該指導的上限和下限，您今天預見的主要變數是什麼。

Yes. I think the biggest driver there is going to be organic growth, right, because that will drive incremental operating leverage above maybe what our current expectations might be. So I think that will be the biggest factor there.

是的。我認為最大的驅動力將是有機成長，對吧，因為這將推動增​​量營運槓桿超過我們目前的預期。所以我認為這將是最大的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自馬克·馬爾孔和貝爾德的對話。

Two questions. First, on the specialty lines, you said you're basically generating 2x the growth of the general lines. How -- to what extent or how long do you think you can keep up that higher level of growth on the specialty lines? In other words, are they still relatively new in the market and this is truly differentiated and this is going to enable you to continue to gain a lot of share? Or did we have a boost because of the talent additions and things will settle out. So how should we think about that from a longer-term perspective?

兩個問題。首先，在專業產品線上，您說您的成長基本上是普通產品線的兩倍。您認為您可以在專業領域保持較高水準的成長，如何—在多大程度上或持續多久？換句話說，它們在市場上仍然相對較新嗎？這確實是差異化的，這將使您能夠繼續獲得大量份額？或者我們是否因為人才的增加而得到了提升，事情就會解決。那我們該如何從更長遠的角度來思考這個問題呢？

So part of this is strategic, right, in that we are focusing on these businesses, and that's where we are continuing to invest, and we see a return there. We've been a specialist broker for nearly 200 years, right? So I would argue that it's not likely to play itself out over the next couple where we've been doing this very successfully in a very long time. The differentiator for us, remember, is that we're actually organizing the business around this as opposed to on the side of someone's desk. And that enables us to focus on delivering enhanced value through superior analytics and client engagement that we think has a very attractive proposition. We don't see that abating.

因此，其中一部分是策略性的，因為我們專注於這些業務，這就是我們繼續投資的領域，我們在那裡看到了回報。我們作為專業經紀商已有近 200 年的歷史，對吧？因此，我認為它不太可能在接下來的幾年中發揮作用，我們在很長一段時間內一直在非常成功地做到這一點。請記住，我們的與眾不同之處在於，我們實際上是圍繞此組織業務，而不是在某人的辦公桌旁組織業務。這使我們能夠專注於透過卓越的分析和客戶參與來提供更高的價值，我們認為這是一個非常有吸引力的主張。我們並沒有看到這種情況有所減弱。

Great. And then can you just talk a little bit about the pension and retirement business how much of a boost could we end up getting with the change in rates and the ability to derisk. And then to what extent does the -- are you getting any additional engagements just in terms of the news that IBM made with regards to their shift in policy?

偉大的。然後你能談談退休金和退休業務嗎？利率的變化和降低風險的能力最終會為我們帶來多大的推動。那麼，僅就 IBM 政策轉變的消息而言，您是否得到了任何額外的參與？

So I mean, we do see the macroeconomic environment and where the funded position of pension plans are as stimulating demand for buy-ins and buyouts as we've talked about and not just necessarily transacting on them with the analysis that goes into them and the preparation so that we do think that is helpful for us and our clients going into 2024.

所以我的意思是，我們確實看到宏觀經濟環境以及退休金計劃的資金狀況正如我們所討論的那樣刺激了買入和買斷的需求，而不僅僅是通過對它們的分析和對它們的分析來進行交易。做好準備，我們認為這對我們和我們的客戶進入 2024 年是有幫助的。

And some of that will be episodic, right, as clients take on derisking transaction. So it's not going to be any one pattern throughout the year.

當客戶進行去風險交易時，其中一些將是偶發的，對吧。所以全年不會有任何一種模式。

Yes. And with respect to the clients you were alluding to who is, I guess, reopened their defined benefit plan, this is say, where there's interest out there at least examining this on behalf of other plan sponsors who may be similarly situated. And we're well poised and well positioned to help clients with that evaluation.

是的。至於你提到的客戶，我想，他們重新開放了他們的固定福利計劃，也就是說，至少有興趣代表其他可能處於類似情況的計劃發起人來檢查這一點。我們已做好準備並有能力幫助客戶進行評估。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 與 Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods 的系列。

Two quick questions. First, Carl, you talked about having 12 verticals. And I was hoping you could sort of outline how much of the Fortune 1000 that 12 verticals represent?

兩個簡單的問題。首先，Carl，您談到有 12 個垂直方向。我希望您能概述一下這 12 個垂直產業在《財星 1000 強》中所佔的比例？

So I don't think that map is quite right. For instance, one of our industry verticals focuses around alternative capital, [which you have] private equity, right? So this isn't necessarily a public equity strategy nor is it confined to the large market, right? We see -- the industry verticals stretch down to smaller organizations as well. So the answer is there's significant coverage across Corporate America with our industry verticals. Some of them are quite broad and some of them are quite focused on areas where we think we can deliver particular value, say, hospitality.

所以我認為那張地圖不太正確。例如，我們的垂直行業之一專注於另類資本，[您擁有]私募股權，對嗎？所以這不一定是公共股權策略，也不限於大市場，對嗎？我們看到——行業垂直領域也延伸到了較小的組織。所以答案是我們的垂直產業對美國企業界有很大的覆蓋。其中一些非常廣泛，有些則非常集中於我們認為可以提供特定價值的領域，例如酒店業。

Okay. No, fair enough. Second, and I'm not really sure how to ask this question, but you talked about how Adam's brought back the -- took the [tapping] to full levels. Did we see full productivity from that group overall in either the fourth quarter of '23, over the course of 2023. Is there still some momentum for the -- this newest cadre to expand productivity or (inaudible) margin?

好的。不，很公平。其次，我不太確定如何問這個問題，但你談到了 Adam 如何將 [竊聽] 恢復到最高水平。我們是否在 2023 年第四季或整個 2023 年看到該團隊的整體生產力充分發揮。這個最新的骨幹人員是否仍然有一些動力來擴大生產力或（聽不清楚）利潤？

Very much the latter. We do see -- while we're very happy with the progress that both our existing colleagues and our newer colleagues have made, we do see increased productivity as being part of the picture for our last cohort of hires. Yes.

很大程度上是後者。我們確實看到——雖然我們對現有同事和新同事所取得的進步感到非常滿意，但我們確實看到生產力的提高是我們最後一批員工的一部分。是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I just want to go back to a question Greg was asking at the beginning about the difference in the growth rates of the various segments. In aggregate, the growth seems pretty orderly, but by segment, there seems to be a lot of volatility. Should we expect in the coming quarters that the segment organic growth rate will be volatile. Is that the right way to think about how your business operates? Or should we expect there to be a general run rate where there's a trend from the previous quarter that might influence the next quarter?

我只想回到格雷格一開始提出的問題，也就是各個細分市場成長率的差異。總體而言，成長似乎相當有序，但從細分市場來看，似乎存在很大波動。我們是否應該預期未來幾季該部門的有機成長率將會出現波動？這是思考您的企業如何運作的正確方法嗎？或者我們應該預期存在一個總體運行率，即上一季的趨勢可能會影響下一季？

Yes. I think you're asking about sequential growth rates. Parts of our business are seasonal and we do have timing things, which play out periodically between quarters year-to-year. So that is something to keep in mind. And that is why we tend to focus on full year growth rates for our businesses.

是的。我認為您問的是連續成長率。我們的部分業務是季節性的，我們確實有時間安排，這些事情會在每年的季度之間定期發生。所以這是需要記住的事情。這就是為什麼我們傾向於關注我們業務的全年成長率。

Does the seasonality shown in 2023 represent a seasonality that we should consider in the 2024 year?

2023 年顯示的季節性是否代表我們在 2024 年應該考慮的季節性？

For the most part, I think throughout the year, we did call out a couple of unusual things, for example, the timing of BDO between Q4 and Q3 revenue. And I think there were a couple of other things throughout the year. And of course, you got to think about the impact of the book sales where we had some swings in some of the quarters where there were larger amounts of those, but expect to be through that largely going forward.

在很大程度上，我認為在這一年中，我們確實指出了一些不尋常的事情，例如，BDO 在第四季度和第三季度收入之間的時間表。我認為這一年裡還有其他一些事情。當然，你必須考慮圖書銷售的影響，我們在某些​​圖書銷售量較大的季度中出現了一些波動，但預計未來將在很大程度上經歷這種波動。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Mike Ward。

I was just curious, the margin guide relatively consistent, but you've spoken to some incremental savings. So just wondering if we should think about those savings maybe being offset by some costs. Could that actually benefit 2025 margins?

我只是好奇，保證金指南相對一致，但您談到了一些增量節省。所以只是想知道我們是否應該考慮這些節省可能會被一些成本所抵消。這真的有利於 2025 年的利潤嗎？

Yes. So as I had mentioned as a regard -- with regard to the '24 margin target, we do expect to be toward the higher end of that range. There's obviously some benefit from incremental savings that we talked about and the investments that we're making are really for future growth opportunities but also will help us unlock additional operating leverage opportunities in the future. So we do think there'll be continued tailwinds beyond 2024 for some of the investments we're making now this year.

是的。正如我所提到的，關於 24 年的利潤率目標，我們確實預計會達到該範圍的高端。顯然，我們談到的增量節省有一些好處，我們正在進行的投資確實是為了未來的成長機會，但也將幫助我們在未來釋放更多的營運槓桿機會。因此，我們確實認為，對於我們今年正在進行的一些投資來說，2024 年後將會持續有利。

Okay. And then you've spoken to some of the book gains in the quarter. Wondering if you could talk about where attrition is running. If 2024 is kind of a normal year, just curious how much of a headwind we should expect this year for book gains?

好的。然後您談到了本季度的一些帳面收益。想知道您是否可以談談人員流失的情況。如果 2024 年是正常的一年，那麼我們想知道今年的帳面收益會遇到多大的阻力？

No, we expect to return back towards our historical normal level. So we don't expect any significant headwinds or tailwinds from bookings going forward.

不，我們預計會回到歷史正常水平。因此，我們預計未來的預訂不會有任何重大的不利因素或有利因素。

I would just add sort of thinking about attrition at the overall level for the company, we are back down to well within the range we've had historically. So a very manageable situation for us.

我只是想補充公司整體層面的人員流失問題，我們已經回到了歷史的範圍內。所以對我們來說這是一個非常容易管理的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩‧梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

Carl, I'm just curious on the 10% organic growth you had for the year in R&B. You mentioned that it was new business and it was retention. Is there a way to kind of parse that out and how much of the kind of growth was client retention. And are you back to kind of your historical client retention levels? Or is there more room for that to improve?

Carl，我只是對今年 R&B 業務實現 10% 的有機成長感到好奇。您提到這是新業務，也是保留業務。有沒有一種方法可以解析這個問題，以及這種成長中有多少是客戶保留率。您是否回到了歷史客戶保留水準？或是還有更多改進的空間？

We are back, which is great to see, and that is a result of superior client service, I think on behalf of many, many, many colleagues. I do not rest on our laurels, but it's very nice to be where we are. Our performance in new business has been just really first grade and very proud of the effort of the team has made of representing what we can do with WTW [on the market].

我們回來了，這是很高興看到的，這是優質客戶服務的結果，我想這代表了很多很多同事。我不會滿足於現有的成就，但能達到現在的水準真是太好了。我們在新業務中的表現確實是一流的，並且對團隊為代表我們可以利用 WTW [在市場上] 所做的事情所做的努力感到非常自豪。

Great. And then second question, I'm just curious, with your 2024 outlook, what are the baseline assumption with respect to economic growth and inflation as you kind of look out? Do you expect things to continue the way they are? Any type of change?

偉大的。第二個問題，我很好奇，對於您對 2024 年的展望，您所關注的經濟成長和通膨的基準假設是什麼？你希望事情繼續這樣下去嗎？有任何類型的改變嗎？

I think continue the way they are over -- look, not looking too far back in the mirror on that one, right? We're not sort of anticipating incredible economic dislocation nor are we sort of looking toward the incredible geopolitical dislocation, but we do recognize there's a lot of volatility out there. That is not necessarily great for our clients, but it does mean that there's more opportunities for us to help them manage that volatility.

我想繼續他們結束的方式——看，不要在鏡子裡看得太遠，對吧？我們並沒有預見到令人難以置信的經濟混亂，也沒有預見到令人難以置信的地緣政治混亂，但我們確實認識到存在很大的波動性。這對我們的客戶來說不一定是好事，但這確實意味著我們有更多機會幫助他們管理這種波動性。

I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Carl Hess for closing remarks.

我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回卡爾·赫斯（Carl Hess），讓其致閉幕詞。

So thank you all, again, for joining us. I appreciate all of our WTW colleagues globally who work tirelessly to help us end the year on such a strong note. I am proud of everything we've achieved in 2023. I look forward to us keeping up the momentum for 2024.

再次感謝大家加入我們。我感謝 WTW 全球所有同事的不懈努力，幫助我們以如此強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。我為我們在 2023 年所取得的一切成就感到自豪。我期待我們在 2024 年保持這一勢頭。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。