Willis Towers Watson PLC (WTW) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the WTW Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that was issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next 3 months on WTW's website.

早上好，歡迎來到 WTW 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。有關今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和補充信息，請參閱 wtwco.com。今天的通話正在錄音中，未來 3 個月將在 WTW 的網站上提供。

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For more detailed discussions of these and other risk factors, Investors should review the forward-looking statements section of the earnings press release issued this morning as well as other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings.

今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。實際結果可能與今天討論的結果大不相同，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。有關這些和其他風險因素的更詳細討論，投資者應查看今天上午發布的收益新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述部分以及最新的 10-K 表格和 Willis Towers Watson SEC 提交的其他文件中的其他披露。

During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures. Please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在電話會議期間，可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施，以協調非 GAAP 措施以及有關這些措施的其他信息。請參閱公司網站投資者關係部分的最新收益發布和其他材料。

I will now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給 WTW 的首席執行官卡爾赫斯。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining for WTW's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer. Our third quarter performance reflects the increasing momentum we see in the business and our intense focus on delivering on our commitments. As projected, our organic revenue growth accelerated reaching 6% this quarter fueled by the great efforts of our colleagues and the strength of our global client model and further augmented by the investments we've made in talent and technology.

大家，早安。感謝您參加 WTW 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官 Andrew Krasner。我們第三季度的業績反映了我們在業務中看到的增長勢頭以及我們對兌現承諾的高度重視。正如預期的那樣，在我們同事的巨大努力和我們全球客戶模型的力量的推動下，我們本季度的有機收入增長加速達到 6%，並進一步增加了我們在人才和技術方面的投資。

We generated adjusted diluted earnings of $2.20 per share and drove 110 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, thanks to our transformation program, continued expense discipline and operating leverage from new business. We also continue to execute against our capital allocation strategy, completing $369 million in share repurchases in the third quarter. That brings our year-to-date total to $3.1 billion.

由於我們的轉型計劃、持續的費用紀律和新業務的經營槓桿，我們產生了 2.20 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益，並推動了 110 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張。我們還繼續執行我們的資本配置策略，在第三季度完成了 3.69 億美元的股票回購。這使我們年初至今的總額達到 31 億美元。

We're pleased with our third quarter performance and our progress executing our strategy to grow, simplify and transform gives us confidence in our ability to deliver against our guidance for 2022 and to drive growth and value creation over the long term.

我們對第三季度的業績感到滿意，我們在執行增長、簡化和轉型戰略方面取得的進展使我們相信我們有能力實現 2022 年的目標，並推動長期增長和價值創造。

A year ago, at our Investor Day, we laid out our strategy for how we take WTW forward and deliver robust shareholder returns. Before getting into the details of the quarter, I want to provide you with an update on these initiatives. While it's still early in our journey, and there is more work to do, we have made substantial progress and are seeing encouraging signs that our investments and actions will yield the long-term improvement we expect. Our transformation efforts have made the most immediate impact. As I mentioned on our last earnings call, our focus on continuous improvement has helped us identify new opportunities and incremental sources of value as well as areas in which we can accelerate progress.

一年前，在我們的投資者日，我們制定了我們如何推動 WTW 前進並實現強勁股東回報的戰略。在進入本季度的細節之前，我想向您介紹這些舉措的最新情況。雖然我們的旅程還處於早期階段，還有更多工作要做，但我們已經取得了實質性進展，並且看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，表明我們的投資和行動將產生我們預期的長期改善。我們的轉型努力產生了最直接的影響。正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的那樣，我們對持續改進的關注幫助我們發現了新的機會和增量價值來源，以及我們可以加速進步的領域。

During the third quarter, we realized $29 million of incremental annualized savings. This brings the total to $100 million in cumulative annualized savings since the program's inception, far exceeding our original $30 million target for 2022. Accordingly, we're raising our guidance on cumulative run rate transformation savings action by the end of 2022 from over $80 million to approximately $110 million. The additional transformation savings we've identified also supported increase to the total annual cost savings we expect the program to deliver by the end of 2024 from $300 million to $360 million. And as I said, there's still more work to do, and we will continue searching for additional opportunities.

第三季度，我們實現了 2900 萬美元的增量年化節省。這使自該計劃啟動以來的累計年化節省總額達到 1 億美元，遠遠超過我們原定的 2022 年 3000 萬美元目標。因此，我們將到 2022 年底的累計運行率轉型節省行動的指導從超過 8000 萬美元上調到大約 1.1 億美元。我們確定的額外轉型節省也支持我們預計到 2024 年底該計劃將實現的年度總成本節省從 3 億美元增加到 3.6 億美元。正如我所說，還有更多工作要做，我們將繼續尋找更多機會。

Meanwhile, our Simplify and Grow initiatives are powering the increasing momentum we see in the business. One of our key simplify activities has been streamlining shared operations to improve sales and retention outcomes. Our accelerated growth and robust pipeline demonstrate the progress we've made deploying this more agile model globally.

與此同時，我們的簡化和發展計劃正在推動我們在業務中看到的日益增長的勢頭。我們的一項關鍵簡化活動是簡化共享運營以提高銷售和保留結果。我們的加速增長和強大的管道展示了我們在全球部署這種更敏捷的模型所取得的進展。

For our Grow initiatives, we remain focused on investment in both core and fast-growing markets and innovation to drive differentiation and better client outcomes. In Corporate Risk and Broking, our investments in specialized solutions and strategic hires for our global lines of business are meaningfully accelerating growth with most lines growing double digits this quarter.

對於我們的增長計劃，我們仍然專注於對核心市場和快速增長市場的投資以及創新，以推動差異化和更好的客戶成果。在企業風險和經紀業務方面，我們對全球業務線專業解決方案的投資和戰略性招聘正在顯著加速增長，大多數業務線本季度都實現了兩位數的增長。

In Health, Wealth and Career we've seen strong uptake of our solutions that are cross sold across the segment and are increasingly bundling products into our core advisory work.

在健康、財富和職業方面，我們看到我們的解決方案在整個細分市場中得到廣泛採用，並且越來越多地將產品捆綁到我們的核心諮詢工作中。

Our focus on innovation is driving improvements to existing solutions as well as launches of new products. For example, WTW's global payroll diagnostic tool is a sophisticated model, which provides refined evaluation of comprehensive catastrophe risks. The model clarifies exposure to terrorism in 12 natural perils and includes live event tracking for events such as pandemics, earthquakes, wind storms. We've recently enhanced this tool with hurricane tracking advisory and resiliency scoring, upgrading the sophisticated foundational tool with next-level analytics.

我們對創新的關注正在推動改進現有解決方案以及推出新產品。例如，WTW 的全球薪資診斷工具是一個複雜的模型，可以對綜合巨災風險進行精細評估。該模型闡明了在 12 種自然災害中暴露於恐怖主義的風險，並包括對流行病、地震、風暴等事件的實時事件跟踪。我們最近通過颶風跟踪諮詢和彈性評分增強了該工具，通過下一級分析升級了複雜的基礎工具。

Analytics is a key area for new product development as well, including the recent launch of Risk Intelligence Quantified or Risk IQ. This flexible and crystallized platform provides risk specialists with autonomous access to the breadth of WTW's leading Risk & Analytics solutions. Risk IQ puts managers in control of their analytic outputs, providing patients with the ability to run business-critical scenarios and prepare for potential losses.

分析也是新產品開發的一個關鍵領域，包括最近推出的 Risk Intelligence Quantified 或 Risk IQ。這個靈活而明確的平台為風險專家提供了自主訪問 WTW 領先的風險和分析解決方案的範圍。 Risk IQ 使管理人員能夠控制他們的分析輸出，使患者能夠運行關鍵業務場景並為潛在損失做好準備。

WTW is at the forefront when it comes to delivering valuable strategic solutions across this market and Risk IQ further highlights our client-centric capabilities. Our new products reflect the evolution of our services to align with the changing needs of our clients.

在為這個市場提供有價值的戰略解決方案方面，WTW 處於最前沿，而 Risk IQ 進一步突出了我們以客戶為中心的能力。我們的新產品反映了我們服務的演變，以適應客戶不斷變化的需求。

In addition, our ongoing investments to rebuild our talent base are proceeding as expected. The pace of hiring in the third quarter matched that of the first half of the year. We also continue to see the benefit of retention efforts with voluntary attrition remaining in line with macro trends.

此外，我們正在進行的重建人才基礎的投資正在按預期進行。第三季度的招聘速度與上半年持平。我們還繼續看到保留工作的好處，自願減員與宏觀趨勢保持一致。

One Grow initiative from Investor Day that has not been a focus for us to date is inorganic expansion. While we expect share repurchases to remain the primary avenue for capital deployment, we are still committed to identifying attractive opportunities to strengthen our portfolio and add scale and fill gaps in our capabilities via acquisitions as part of our broader capital allocation strategy, particularly with the market now tilting in favor of buyers.

Investor Day 的一項 Grow 倡議是無機擴張，但迄今為止我們還沒有關注這一點。雖然我們預計股票回購仍將是資本配置的主要途徑，但我們仍致力於尋找有吸引力的機會來加強我們的投資組合，並通過收購擴大規模並填補我們的能力差距，作為我們更廣泛的資本配置戰略的一部分，特別是與市場現在傾向於買家。

Over the past year, we've developed a strong understanding of where we could benefit from deploying capital, which enables us to be a disciplined and opportunistic buyer. The progress we have made to date gives us confidence that WTW is on the right path but we also recognize that we have more work to do. We'll share a more detailed outlook for 2023 next quarter, and we continue to believe we will deliver on our long-term organic growth and margin expansion expectations.

在過去的一年裡，我們對我們可以從部署資本中獲益的地方有了深刻的理解，這使我們能夠成為一個有紀律和機會主義的買家。我們迄今取得的進展讓我們相信 WTW 走在正確的道路上，但我們也認識到我們還有更多工作要做。我們將在下個季度分享更詳細的 2023 年展望，我們仍然相信我們將實現我們的長期有機增長和利潤率擴張預期。

While we're on this topic, I wanted to take some time to discuss our decision to reflect the impact of the Russian divestiture in our 2024 guidance. As you know, during the first quarter of 2022, we announced our intention to transfer ownership of our Russian subsidiaries to local management and work to identify potential longer-term offsets to the impact of the exit. The transfer was completed in the third quarter, and given the current conditions, we do not anticipate resuming operations there in the foreseeable future. WTW's operations in Russia, which were almost entirely within our Risk and Broking segment, comprised approximately 1% of consolidated revenue for 2021 and were highly profitable. Due to the unusual circumstances under which the divestiture was made, there were essentially no proceeds from the transfer. As a result of this one-off event, we are unable to replace the lost earnings through reinvestment of proceeds.

當我們討論這個話題時，我想花點時間討論一下我們決定在我們的 2024 年指南中反映俄羅斯資產剝離的影響。如您所知，在 2022 年第一季度，我們宣布打算將俄羅斯子公司的所有權轉讓給當地管理層，並努力確定對退出影響的潛在長期抵消。轉移已於第三季度完成，鑑於目前的情況，我們預計在可預見的未來不會在那裡恢復運營。 WTW 在俄羅斯的業務幾乎完全屬於我們的風險和經紀部門，佔 2021 年綜合收入的約 1%，並且利潤豐厚。由於剝離的特殊情況，轉讓基本上沒有收益。由於這一一次性事件，我們無法通過收益再投資來彌補損失的收益。

With the transaction complete, we believe it's now appropriate to revise the starting and ending points of our long-term guidance to reflect the divestiture of WTW's Russian operations, just as we would any other significant transaction. I want to make it very clear that despite revising our long-term targets, we remain committed to delivering the same level of improvement, mid-single-digit, organic revenue growth and 400 to 500 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion as we set out at Investor Day.

隨著交易的完成，我們認為現在應該修改我們長期指導的起點和終點，以反映 WTW 俄羅斯業務的剝離，就像我們對任何其他重大交易所做的那樣。我想明確表示，儘管我們修改了長期目標，但我們仍然致力於實現與我們設定的相同水平的改善、中等個位數的有機收入增長和 400 至 500 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張在投資者日。

Page 4 of the earnings release published earlier this morning provides further disclosure on the divestiture and the related adjustments to our long-term guidance. Please note that our initial and revised targets exclude the potential effects of fluctuations in foreign currency rates.

今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告的第 4 頁進一步披露了資產剝離和我們長期指導的相關調整。請注意，我們的初始目標和修訂後的目標不包括外幣匯率波動的潛在影響。

The ongoing situation in Russia is a stark reminder of the heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risk all basis is face today. I want to take a moment to talk about how we're helping our clients navigate this complicated and uncertain landscape. Our solutions help clients manage their human, physical and financial capital to protect and strengthen their institutions, and these tools only become more valuable in challenging times.

俄羅斯目前的局勢清楚地提醒人們，當今所有基礎都面臨著更高的地緣政治和宏觀經濟風險。我想花點時間談談我們如何幫助我們的客戶駕馭這個複雜和不確定的環境。我們的解決方案幫助客戶管理他們的人力、物質和財務資本，以保護和加強他們的機構，而這些工具只會在充滿挑戰的時期變得更有價值。

Inflation is top of mind. Our clients are increasingly seeking our advice and solutions to manage the impact of inflation on wages, health care costs, pensions and retirement plans. With tight labor markets persisting, solving these challenges is a strategic opportunity for clients, and we're helping them optimize total rewards spend, manage the cost of retirement and medical programs and efficiently fund and finance programs via pooling, global underwriting, captive strategies and delegated asset management.

通貨膨脹是頭等大事。我們的客戶越來越多地尋求我們的建議和解決方案，以管理通貨膨脹對工資、醫療保健成本、養老金和退休計劃的影響。隨著緊張的勞動力市場持續存在，解決這些挑戰對客戶來說是一個戰略機遇，我們正在幫助他們優化總獎勵支出，管理退休和醫療計劃的成本，並通過聯營、全球承保、專屬策略和委託資產管理。

Another hallmark of the current environment is how quickly it's changing. In addition to working with our clients to manage traditional ever-present risks, we're seeing strong demand from clients for innovative solutions and tools to help them identify, quantify and manage fast-moving risks such as more volatile financial markets, climate change, geopolitical tensions, heightened ESG risk and reputational damage to name a few. We're rising to this challenge by bringing the best of our organization together globally, creating market-leading analytical tools to help clients make better informed decisions and crafting customized solutions to meet our clients' emergent risks.

當前環境的另一個標誌是它變化的速度有多快。除了與客戶合作管理傳統上始終存在的風險外，我們還看到客戶對創新解決方案和工具的強烈需求，以幫助他們識別、量化和管理快速變化的風險，例如更加動蕩的金融市場、氣候變化、地緣政治緊張局勢、ESG 風險加劇和聲譽受損等等。我們通過將全球最優秀的組織聚集在一起，創建市場領先的分析工具來幫助客戶做出更明智的決策，並製定定制的解決方案來應對客戶的緊急風險，從而迎接這一挑戰。

Our performance in the quarter demonstrated our focus on delivering on our commitments and our pursuit of profitable sustainable growth. We believe that the successful execution of our strategy and robust client demand in the face of a very complex risk environment will keep us on track to achieve our guidance for 2022. We continue to build momentum and remain focused on the (inaudible) goals to create shareholder value.

我們在本季度的表現表明我們專注於兌現承諾和追求盈利的可持續增長。我們相信，面對非常複雜的風險環境，成功執行我們的戰略和強勁的客戶需求將使我們走上正軌，實現我們對 2022 年的指導。我們繼續建立勢頭，並繼續專注於（聽不清）目標，以創造股東價值。

In closing, I want to thank our colleagues for their performance this quarter. We are truly appreciative of their dedication, service and continued commitment to our vision. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

最後，我要感謝我們的同事本季度的表現。我們非常感謝他們的奉獻精神、服務和對我們願景的持續承諾。有了這個，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, everyone. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. As Carl mentioned, our clients are grappling with a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Unfortunately, they have also continued to grapple with rising commercial insurance rates. While price increases appear to be moderating, WTW's Q2 commercial lines insurance pricing survey showed an aggregate increase of just below 6%. Data for nearly all lines continue to indicate significant price increases with the exception of works compensation and D&O liability. The largest price increase came from cyber followed by professional liability.

謝謝，卡爾。大家，早安。感謝大家今天加入我們。正如 Carl 所提到的，我們的客戶正在努力應對一系列宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰。不幸的是，他們還繼續努力應對不斷上升的商業保險費率。雖然價格上漲似乎正在放緩，但 WTW 的第二季度商業險種保險定價調查顯示總漲幅略低於 6%。除了工程補償和 D&O 責任外，幾乎所有線路的數據繼續顯示價格大幅上漲。最大的價格漲幅來自網絡，其次是專業責任。

In light of these additional pressure points, we continue to focus on helping clients evaluate their options so they can make better informed decisions about how to best manage their risk portfolios.

鑑於這些額外的壓力點，我們繼續專注於幫助客戶評估他們的選擇，以便他們能夠就如何最好地管理他們的風險組合做出更明智的決定。

Turning to our financial results. The third quarter was in line with our expectations. On an organic basis, revenue was up 6%, reflecting accelerating growth across all of our businesses. Adjusted operating income was $284 million or 14.5% of revenue for the quarter, up 110 basis points from $264 million or 13.4% of revenue in the same period last year as our growth and expense discipline combined to enhance our profitability. The net result was adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.20, representing 27% growth over the prior year.

轉向我們的財務業績。第三季度符合我們的預期。在有機基礎上，收入增長了 6%，反映出我們所有業務的加速增長。調整後的營業收入為 2.84 億美元，佔本季度收入的 14.5%，比去年同期的 2.64 億美元或收入的 13.4% 增加 110 個基點，因為我們的增長和開支紀律共同提高了我們的盈利能力。調整後的淨收益為 2.20 美元，較上年增長 27%。

Let's turn to our detailed segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. The Health, Wealth and Career or HWC segment generated revenue growth of 4% are both in organic and constant currency basis compared to the third quarter of last year. Health, which is comprised of our Health and Benefits broking and consulting business delivered growth of 6%, primarily driven by increased demand for products and advisory work in North America spurred by clients focus on mitigating likely 2023 cost increases and by U.S. legislative changes. Revenue also grew outside of North America as a result of new client appointments and increases in health care premiums.

讓我們轉向詳細的細分結果。請注意，為了提供與前期的可比性，除非另有特別說明，否則所有關於我們部門業績的評論都將有機地進行。與去年第三季度相比，健康、財富和職業或 HWC 部門產生的收入增長 4%，均以有機和固定貨幣為基礎。由我們的健康和福利經紀和諮詢業務組成的健康業務實現了 6% 的增長，這主要是由於客戶專注於減輕 2023 年可能增加的成本以及美國立法的變化，推動了北美對產品和諮詢工作的需求增加。由於新客戶預約和醫療保費增加，北美以外的收入也有所增長。

Wealth, which consists of our retirement and investment businesses grew 3% in the quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher levels of regulatory and project work in Europe as well as increased consulting work in North America. The growth was partially offset by a nominal decrease in our delegated investment solutions business, which was pressured by declines in capital markets. While we expect the headwind from these declines to persist into the fourth quarter, we see momentum in building in the rest of the Wealth business during the remainder of the year, driven by new client acquisition and strong demand for specialist work in response to market volatility and legislative changes.

包括我們的退休和投資業務在內的財富在本季度增長了 3%。增長主要歸因於歐洲更高水平的監管和項目工作以及北美諮詢工作的增加。這一增長被我們的委託投資解決方案業務的名義下降部分抵消，該業務受到資本市場下滑的壓力。雖然我們預計這些下降帶來的逆風將持續到第四季度，但我們看到在今年剩餘時間裡，在新客戶獲取和為應對市場波動而對專業工作的強勁需求的推動下，財富業務的其餘部分將出現增長勢頭和立法變化。

Career, which includes our Work & Rewards and Employee Experience businesses also contributed to revenue growth for the segment, increasing 6% in the quarter. This growth was largely driven by strong client demand for talent and compensation products, including compensation benchmarking surveys, hiring assessments and employee engagement offerings, which we see continuing.

職業，包括我們的工作與獎勵和員工體驗業務，也為該部門的收入增長做出了貢獻，本季度增長了 6%。這一增長主要是由客戶對人才和薪酬產品的強勁需求推動的，這些產品包括薪酬基準調查、招聘評估和員工敬業度產品，我們認為這些需求仍在繼續。

Benefits Delivery and Outsourcing, which encompasses our Benefits Delivery and Administration and our Technology and Administrative Solutions businesses generated 2% revenue growth over the third quarter of 2021. The increase was largely driven by individual marketplace and reflected growth in Medicare Advantage revenue in our direct-to-consumer business. Outsourcing revenue also increased due to new client appointments and growth across the existing client base. We continue to see an environment that supports growth opportunities for this business for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

福利交付和外包，包括我們的福利交付和管理以及我們的技術和行政解決方案業務，在 2021 年第三季度實現了 2% 的收入增長。這一增長主要是由個別市場推動的，反映了我們直接-對消費者的業務。由於新客戶的任命和現有客戶群的增長，外包收入也有所增加。在 2022 年剩餘時間及以後，我們繼續看到支持該業務增長機會的環境。

HWC's operating margin was 20.3% this quarter compared to 20.6% in the prior period. The margin declined primarily to investments in resourcing and technology to support future revenue growth.

HWC 本季度的營業利潤率為 20.3%，而上一季度為 20.6%。利潤率下降主要是因為為支持未來收入增長而進行的資源和技術投資。

As economic uncertainty looms and market volatility persists, companies are dealing with high inflation rates, workplace stress caused by labor shortages as well as cost and risk management concerns related to pensions and health benefits. Against this challenging backdrop, HWC is helping companies better address employees' needs while managing business realities. Our near and long-term outlook for HWC remains positive as we expect its market-leading solutions and the ongoing demand drivers in its core businesses to continue to support organic growth.

隨著經濟不確定性和市場波動持續存在，公司正在應對高通脹率、勞動力短缺造成的工作場所壓力以及與養老金和健康福利相關的成本和風險管理問題。在這種充滿挑戰的背景下，HWC 正在幫助公司在管理業務現實的同時更好地滿足員工的需求。我們對 HWC 的近期和長期前景仍然樂觀，因為我們預計其市場領先的解決方案和核心業務的持續需求驅動因素將繼續支持有機增長。

Risk and Broking revenue was up 6% on an organic basis and 3% on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year third quarter. Corporate Risk and Broking or CRB, revenue increased 6%. The business generated growth across all regions, primarily from new business with double-digit growth across most of our global lines of business. Book of business settlement activity was due to senior colleague departures in 2021 and is consistent with the levels seen in the prior year period. Thus, it did not affect CRB's year-over-year organic growth rate.

與去年第三季度相比，風險和經紀業務收入有機增長 6%，按固定匯率計算增長 3%。 Corporate Risk and Broking 或 CRB，收入增長 6%。該業務在所有地區都實現了增長，主要來自我們全球大部分業務線的兩位數增長的新業務。業務賬簿結算活動是由於高級同事在 2021 年離職，與去年同期水平一致。因此，它不會影響 CRB 的同比有機增長率。

Both Europe and International led CRB's growth with improved client retention and notably strong new business in natural resources, construction and aerospace. Solid growth in North America was driven by strong contributions from both construction and M&A solutions.

歐洲和國際市場通過提高客戶保留率以及在自然資源、建築和航空航天領域的顯著強勁新業務引領 CRB 的增長。北美的穩健增長得益於建築和併購解決方案的強勁貢獻。

In the Insurance Consulting and Technology business, revenue was up 2% on top of a tough comparable of 18% growth in the prior year third quarter, primarily driven by increased Technology Solutions sales. On a year-to-date basis, ICT has delivered strong growth. It's trajectory continues to point towards a strong finish in the fourth quarter.

在保險諮詢和技術業務方面，收入在去年第三季度增長 18% 的基礎上增長了 2%，這主要是受技術解決方案銷售額增長的推動。從年初至今，ICT 實現了強勁增長。它的軌跡繼續指向第四節的強勢結束。

R&B's operating margin was 13.7% for the third quarter compared to 17.5% in the prior year third quarter. Margin headwinds were driven by our significant investments in new revenue-producing and client service talent. Throughout this year, R&B welcomed new leaders and senior contributors across all geographies at both the regional and country level. Leveraging their industry expertise, these key hires have begun to contribute to our performance and we expect these contributions will become more meaningful going forward. The steady improvement in our talent base and client pipeline has strengthened our conviction that the work we have done to rebuild our talent base is gaining traction and will yield strong results.

R&B 第三季度的營業利潤率為 13.7%，而去年同期為 17.5%。我們對新創收人才和客戶服務人才的大量投資推動了利潤逆風。今年全年，R&B 在區域和國家層面歡迎所有地區的新領導者和高級貢獻者。利用他們的行業專業知識，這些關鍵員工已經開始為我們的業績做出貢獻，我們預計這些貢獻將在未來變得更有意義。我們的人才基礎和客戶管道的穩步改善使我們更加堅信，我們為重建人才基礎所做的工作正在獲得牽引力，並將產生強勁的成果。

Now let's turn to the enterprise level results. In Q3, we generated profitable growth with adjusted operating margin increasing 110 basis points to 14.5% from 13.4% in the prior year, primarily reflecting the benefits of strategic portfolio management which was realized at the corporate level, alongside transformation program savings, which were realized at the segment level, but were more than offset by our increased investment in talent during the period.

現在讓我們轉向企業級結果。在第三季度，我們實現了盈利增長，調整後的營業利潤率從上一年的 13.4% 增長 110 個基點至 14.5%，這主要反映了在公司層面實現的戰略投資組合管理的好處，以及實現的轉型計劃節省在細分市場層面，但被我們在此期間增加的人才投資所抵消。

We continue to expect margin improvement each year as we work to deliver on our 2024 margin goal. As Carl mentioned, our transformation initiatives will be a key contributor to this ongoing margin expansion, and we're encouraged by the success of our early efforts. By accelerating shared services and our workforce centralization efforts, in addition to identifying incremental opportunities to drive collaboration through real estate portfolio optimization, we have far surpassed our original $30 million annualized run rate savings goal for the year. As a result, we raised both our near and long-term targets and now expect to deliver approximately $110 million in cumulative run rate savings by the end of 2022 and $360 million by the end of 2024.

隨著我們努力實現 2024 年的利潤率目標，我們繼續期望利潤率每年都會提高。正如 Carl 所提到的，我們的轉型計劃將成為持續擴大利潤率的關鍵因素，我們對早期努力的成功感到鼓舞。通過加速共享服務和我們的勞動力集中化工作，除了確定通過房地產投資組合優化推動協作的增量機會外，我們已經遠遠超過了我們最初的年度 3000 萬美元的年化運行率節省目標。因此，我們提高了近期和長期目標，現在預計到 2022 年底將累計節省約 1.1 億美元的運行率，到 2024 年底將節省 3.6 億美元。

Foreign currency was a headwind on adjusted EPS of $0.20 through the first 9 months of the year, largely due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Assuming today's rates continue for the remainder of the year, we've updated our guidance related to our expected foreign currency headwind on adjusted earnings per share from a range of $0.20 to $0.25 to a range of approximately $0.25 to $0.30. We generated free cash flow of $337 million for the first 9 months of 2022 compared to free cash flow of $1.8 billion in the prior year. This decrease was primarily due to the receipt of the $1 billion termination fee in the comparable period, the absence of cash generation from the now divested Willis Re business and additional tax payments made this year on both the Willis Re, gain on sale and the termination fee.

外匯對今年前 9 個月調整後每股收益 0.20 美元不利，這主要是由於美元走強。假設今天的利率在今年餘下時間持續，我們已經更新了與調整後每股收益的預期外匯逆風相關的指導，從 0.20 美元到 0.25 美元的範圍更新到大約 0.25 美元到 0.30 美元的範圍。我們在 2022 年前 9 個月產生了 3.37 億美元的自由現金流，而去年的自由現金流為 18 億美元。這一減少主要是由於在可比期間收到了 10 億美元的終止費，現在剝離的 Willis Re 業務沒有產生現金，以及今年為 Willis Re、出售收益和終止終止支付了額外的稅款費用。

Our U.S. GAAP tax rate for the third quarter was 0.7% versus 22.5% in the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate for the third quarter was 16.8% versus 23.2% in the prior year. The current year adjusted tax rate is lower primarily due to lower U.S. fee expense and excess tax benefit on share-based compensation. We expect the full year 2022 adjusted tax rate to be relatively consistent with our historical rates.

我們第三季度的美國公認會計原則稅率為 0.7%，而去年同期為 22.5%。我們第三季度的調整後稅率為 16.8%，而去年同期為 23.2%。本年度調整後的稅率較低主要是由於美國費用支出較低以及基於股份的薪酬的額外稅收優惠。我們預計 2022 年全年調整後的稅率將與我們的歷史稅率相對一致。

We continue to pursue a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances capital return to shareholders with internal investments and strategic M&A to deploy our capital on the highest return opportunities. During the third quarter of 2022, we paid $91 million in dividends and repurchased 1.8 million shares for $369 million.

我們繼續奉行嚴格的資本配置策略，平衡股東的資本回報與內部投資和戰略併購，以將我們的資本部署在回報率最高的機會上。 2022 年第三季度，我們支付了 9100 萬美元的股息，並以 3.69 億美元回購了 180 萬股股票。

We are pleased by our progress with business performance ramping as we expected. For the remainder of the year, we see macroeconomic environment that is creating demand for our services and opportunities to help clients with our unique combination of solutions. We feel positive about the investments we have made in talent, innovation and operational transformation and are confident these investments will continue to drive organic revenue growth and margin expansion.

我們對我們的業務績效如我們預期的那樣取得進展感到高興。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們看到宏觀經濟環境正在創造對我們的服務和機會的需求，以幫助客戶使用我們獨特的解決方案組合。我們對我們在人才、創新和運營轉型方面的投資感到樂觀，並相信這些投資將繼續推動有機收入增長和利潤率擴張。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我們打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question coming from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的格雷戈里彼得斯。

The first question will be on revenue, both the organic and the change in your fiscal '24 targets. Just curious, Carl, in your comments, you talked about macroeconomic issues, particularly there seem to be some challenges in Europe, et cetera. And I'm curious how you're thinking organic is going to perform, especially with some of your businesses overseas in light of these economic conditions.

第一個問題是關於收入，包括有機收入和 24 財年目標的變化。只是好奇，卡爾，在你的評論中，你談到了宏觀經濟問題，特別是歐洲似乎面臨一些挑戰，等等。我很好奇你認為有機食品的表現如何，尤其是在這些經濟條件下，你的一些海外業務。

And then if I think about the fiscal '24 target, the revised target, it implies a compound annual growth rate of 5% or a little bit higher. And that's not something that's happened very often in the history of Willis Towers Watson. So just trying to bridge the gap between what's going on in the macro environment and what you're suggesting is potential for the company.

然後，如果我考慮 24 財年的目標，即修訂後的目標，它意味著複合年增長率為 5% 或更高一點。在 Willis Towers Watson 的歷史上，這並不是經常發生的事情。因此，只是試圖彌合宏觀環境中發生的事情與你所建議的公司潛力之間的差距。

Yes. Sure, Greg. So I look at it this way, across our key growth drivers, which include strategic initiatives, hiring and industry conditions, we do see momentum building that gives us confidence in achieving the targets we've laid out. Our strategic growth initiatives are gaining traction, for instance, we're making progress on scaling our global lines of business and corporate risk and broking. And we do expect the growth in these lines is going to continue to exceed the CRB average material. And we're also seeing a steady pace of new product launches, and we're focusing on high growth and high need markets like ESG analytics and climate risk. And what we've seen so far in terms of the performance of our new hires and front office sales and our client management roles has reinforced our expectation that the benefits of that hiring activity will meaningfully accelerate in the second half, and particularly some positive trends in CRB gave us confidence in our improving growth outlook.

是的。當然，格雷格。因此，我以這種方式看待它，在我們的主要增長驅動因素中，包括戰略舉措、招聘和行業條件，我們確實看到了勢頭的建立，這讓我們有信心實現我們制定的目標。我們的戰略增長計劃正在獲得牽引力，例如，我們在擴大全球業務線以及企業風險和經紀業務方面取得了進展。我們確實預計這些產品線的增長將繼續超過 CRB 平均材料。我們還看到新產品發布的步伐穩定，我們專注於 ESG 分析和氣候風險等高增長和高需求市場。到目前為止，我們在新員工和前台銷售的表現以及我們的客戶管理角色方面所看到的情況加強了我們的預期，即招聘活動的好處將在下半年顯著加速，尤其是一些積極的趨勢在 CRB 讓我們對我們不斷改善的增長前景充滿信心。

I think looking macro, right, industry conditions remain generally favorable and our business has historically been inflated from general macro volatility, and we're certainly seeing some of that. The need for sound advice and risk management solutions typically only intensifies during dynamic times such as these in the markets, and many of our clients look to us for help in navigating [changes] in labor markets, financial markets, and the geopolitical environment. In H,W, C, we're seeing strong demand and growth across the H, W and C businesses. The macro environment remains reasonably supportive and the buildup of our technology offerings further enhances our resilience and reinforces our confidence in our positioning.

我認為從宏觀上看，對，行業條件總體上仍然有利，而且我們的業務歷來因一般宏觀波動而膨脹，我們肯定會看到其中的一些。對合理建議和風險管理解決方案的需求通常只會在市場等動態時期加劇，我們的許多客戶都希望我們能幫助他們應對勞動力市場、金融市場和地緣政治環境的[變化]。在 H、W、C 方面，我們看到 H、W 和 C 業務的強勁需求和增長。宏觀環境仍然保持合理的支持，我們技術產品的積累進一步增強了我們的韌性，增強了我們對自身定位的信心。

In R&B, we think the company-specific headwinds we had are mostly behind us, and expect we'll continue to narrow that growth gap as our high reactions gain momentum. Macro uncertainty is proving to be a bit of a tailwind as our clients seek to better manage their risk in a highly complex environment.

在 R&B 方面，我們認為我們遇到的公司特定的逆風大多已經過去，並且隨著我們的高反應獲得動力，我們預計我們將繼續縮小增長差距。隨著我們的客戶尋求在高度複雜的環境中更好地管理風險，宏觀不確定性被證明是一種順風。

So just a point of clarification, you ran through a lot of information, I appreciate that. When I think about talent rewards, I used to have a lot of economic sensitivity to it. How does that bake into your thought process as you had your fiscal year '24 revenue targets?

所以只是澄清一點，你瀏覽了很多信息，我很感激。當我想到人才獎勵時，我曾經對它有很多經濟敏感性。當您制定 24 財年的收入目標時，這如何融入您的思維過程？

Greg, I'd point out 2 things, right? One is that the effects of COVID and new ways of working are stimulating demand for services as our client base is sort of looking to manage their workforce in light of the changes to the nature of full-time work in the gig economy. So some of the sensitivity we would have normally seen through the economic cycle, actually just hasn't been there this time. And the second is we have pivoted the business over the years from a rather pure consulting and project-oriented business to be much more reliant on annuity revenue and software. So it's simply a more resilient business than in the past.

格雷格，我要指出兩點，對吧？一是 COVID 的影響和新的工作方式正在刺激對服務的需求，因為我們的客戶群希望根據零工經濟中全職工作性質的變化來管理他們的勞動力。因此，我們通常會在經濟周期中看到的一些敏感性實際上這次並沒有出現。其次，多年來我們已經將業務從相當純粹的諮詢和項目導向型業務轉變為更加依賴年金收入和軟件。所以它只是一個比過去更有彈性的業務。

My second question is just on the other parts of the fiscal '24 on the revised targets. The margin is lower, the free cash flow numbers are lower. And I was wondering if you could spend a minute and talk to us about the gives and takes on those -- the revisions to those parts of your estimates.

我的第二個問題只是關於 24 財年修訂目標的其他部分。利潤率較低，自由現金流數字較低。我想知道你是否可以花一分鐘時間和我們談談付出和承擔——對你估計的那些部分的修改。

Yes, sure. Greg, it's Andrew. Thanks for the question. On the margin, it is purely a function of the impact of the Russian business as well as when we think the pacing of the incremental transformation savings will come online during the 3-year period. The free cash flow guide and change really has 3 components to it. The first is the Russian divestiture where we received no cash proceeds and also had the loss of both the revenue and cash generation from future business but also the receivables, right, that we already had accounted for, which were uncollectible. .

是的，當然。格雷格，是安德魯。謝謝你的問題。在邊際上，這純粹是俄羅斯業務的影響以及我們認為增量轉型儲蓄的步伐將在 3 年期間上線的函數。自由現金流量指南和變化實際上有 3 個組成部分。第一個是俄羅斯資產剝離，我們沒有收到現金收益，也有未來業務的收入和現金產生的損失，還有我們已經入賬的應收賬款，對，這些是無法收回的。 .

The second component was the incremental cost to achieve the $60 million of transformation program savings at the same 2.5x rate that we've been talking about. So that's an incremental $150 million.

第二個組成部分是以我們一直在談論的相同 2.5 倍的速度實現 6000 萬美元的轉型計劃節省的增量成本。所以這是一個增量的 1.5 億美元。

And the third component is timing differences from cash tax payments made this year on both the termination fee and Willis Re gain which our Investor Day guidance contemplated would incur entirely in 2021. As we've mentioned in our prepared remarks last quarter, part of our decrease in free cash flow this year was due to some of these tax payments taking place this year rather than when we had originally anticipated just due to some of the complexity and timing considerations.

第三個組成部分是與今年因終止費和 Willis Re 收益而支付的現金稅的時間差異，我們的投資者日指南預計這將完全在 2021 年發生。正如我們在上個季度準備好的評論中提到的，我們的一部分今年自由現金流的減少是由於今年發生了一些稅款，而不是我們最初僅出於一些複雜性和時間考慮而預計的時間。

And our next question coming from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

I want to go back to the question on the guidance, right? So if I look at the operating margin in the new 2024 guidance. At the midpoint, you're lowering that by $125 million. And I know Russia right, $120 million, and it's a high-margin business, but it seems like that is higher than losing Russia. Is there something else going on there? And -- or maybe it's just that the saves are back-end loaded, but it seems like there's some other earnings that are leaving '24 relative to your prior guide other than just Russia?

我想回到關於指導的問題，對吧？因此，如果我看一下新的 2024 年指南中的營業利潤率。在中點，您將其降低 1.25 億美元。我對俄羅斯的了解是正確的，1.2 億美元，這是一項高利潤業務，但這似乎比失去俄羅斯還要高。還有其他事情嗎？並且 - 或者可能只是儲蓄是後端加載的，但似乎除了俄羅斯之外，還有一些其他收入相對於你之前的指南離開了 24 年？

Yes. I think -- Elyse, it's Andrew. I think some of the disconnect there, maybe just when you the timing of the saves -- the incremental saves are coming online. But the change in margin has really been driven purely by the impact of the Russia divestiture.

是的。我想——愛麗絲，是安德魯。我認為那裡有一些脫節，也許就在你保存時間的時候——增量保存即將上線。但利潤率的變化實際上純粹是由俄羅斯資產剝離的影響推動的。

Okay. And then in terms of this current quarter, right, the segment margins were both weaker, but there was lower unallocated expenses. What -- is there something going on with the corporate unallocated expenses that drove them down this quarter? And is that sustainable? Or was there just something difference between the corporate cost that you downstream to the segment this quarter versus prior periods?

好的。然後就本季度而言，正確的是，部門利潤率都較弱，但未分配費用較低。什麼 - 公司未分配費用是否導致本季度下降？這是可持續的嗎？或者本季度下游到該部門的企業成本與前期相比是否存在差異？

Yes. Our margin expansion in the quarter was driven by the benefits of our transformation program savings and also some strategic portfolio management actions which were more than offset by some of the increased investments in talent seen at the segment level. We had corporate savings as well, but just not necessarily the same level of reinvestment that you would have seen within the segments. There is also the impact of some of these businesses that we decided to exit coming out of the deal termination, which are not allocated to the new segments as well as the effective management of the stranded costs from the Willis Re divestiture.

是的。我們在本季度的利潤率增長是由我們的轉型計劃節省的好處以及一些戰略投資組合管理行動所推動的，這些行動被細分市場中對人才的一些投資增加所抵消。我們也有企業儲蓄，但不一定與您在細分市場中看到的相同水平的再投資。還有一些業務的影響，我們決定在交易終止後退出，這些業務沒有分配給新的部門，以及有效管理 Willis Re 資產剝離的擱淺成本。

Are most of the Willis Re stranded cost gone at this point?

Willis Re 的大部分擱淺成本此時已經消失了嗎？

I'd say they're being effectively managed given that we are still in the midst of a transition services agreement with Gallagher.

我想說，鑑於我們仍在與 Gallagher 簽訂過渡服務協議，他們正在得到有效管理。

And our next question coming from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Newsome 和 Piper Sandler。

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I got kind of confused here following your answer to Elyse's question about these expenses impacting the '24 guidance. So is it the idea that we're ahead of taking cost cuts, but those cost cuts are happening sometime at a later time, perhaps, perhaps beyond 2024, and that's affecting this guidance? And I apologize for my confusion.

很抱歉打了一個死馬，但在你回答愛麗絲關於這些費用影響 24 年指南的問題後，我有點困惑。那麼，我們是否領先於削減成本的想法，但這些成本削減是在稍後的某個時間發生的，也許是在 2024 年之後，這會影響本指南嗎？我為我的困惑道歉。

Yes. No problem, Paul. I was referring to the incremental $60 million that we announced on top of the initial $300 million. So it was really about the pacing of the incremental $60 million.

是的。沒問題，保羅。我指的是我們在最初的 3 億美元基礎上宣布的增加的 6000 萬美元。所以這真的是關於增加 6000 萬美元的節奏。

And that's happening sort of after 2024, so it's not helping the 2024 as much as we would expect?

而且這種情況發生在 2024 年之後，所以它對 2024 年的幫助不如我們預期的那麼大？

I think that's the right way to think about it. It will be more weighted towards the back end of the program rather than during the current period or near term.

我認為這是正確的思考方式。它將更側重於計劃的後端，而不是當前期間或近期。

Which I think, Paul, is something you'd expect by savings that we've identified later in the process.

保羅，我認為這是您在流程後期確定的節省所期望的。

No, that makes sense. I think we're still struggling a little bit with the math because of the -- it looked like there was quite a bit more than the Russian loss in the event, which is high, but it also looked like there was sort of less of an impact from the cost cutting. So I guess I'm still -- I apologize again for my confusion, but it just doesn't seem like the numbers are adding quite the same, like maybe there's something else in there that we or just missing, but again I apologize for my confusion.

不，這是有道理的。我認為我們在數學上仍然有點掙扎，因為 - 看起來比俄羅斯在比賽中的損失要多得多，這是很高的，但看起來也有點少成本削減的影響。所以我想我仍然 - 我再次為我的困惑道歉，但看起來數字的增加並不完全相同，就像我們可能還有其他東西或者只是錯過了，但我再次道歉我的困惑。

Yes. No. I think you just need to be thinking about the margin on the Russian business in the appropriate fashion and you can triangulate on the reguide on the margin.

是的。不，我認為你只需要以適當的方式考慮俄羅斯業務的利潤率，你可以對利潤率的重新指導進行三角測量。

And our next question coming from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just wanted to go back to the margin target reduction, the 1 point reduction. Maybe we could just put some numbers around Russia, some specific numbers because I'm sort of calculating it being a 30 to 40 basis point adverse impact on the margin, so there's a bit more, at least, that I'm thinking is in there. So maybe if you could just clarify that.

我只想回到保證金目標減少，減少 1 個百分點。也許我們可以把一些數字放在俄羅斯周圍，一些具體的數字，因為我正在計算它對利潤率有 30 到 40 個基點的不利影響，所以至少我認為還有更多那裡。所以也許你可以澄清一下。

And then secondly, on the fiduciary income, I think that is something that is going to be a tailwind. Maybe could you just talk about how much of a benefit that, that had this quarter? And also, is that -- I think that's going to increase going forward that's going to help the margin. I'm assuming that's baked into the guide as well, but if you could just clarify that as well.

其次，關於信託收入，我認為這將成為順風。也許你能談談這個季度有多少好處嗎？而且，那是——我認為這將在未來增加，這將有助於提高利潤率。我假設這也已納入指南，但如果您也能澄清一下。

Yes, sure. On the margin recast, the -- it's important to keep in mind that the margin on that business, as we've said, is more than double the enterprise-wide margin. So you can use that to get to the recasted margin range. And then on investment income, we haven't disclosed the specific numbers. I think you'll see some information in the queue that might be helpful in framing that. We are definitely starting to see some modest benefit from the rising rate environment, come through in the financials. But of course, as rates rise, we've got to turn over investment portfolios and that takes time to work through the system fully.

是的，當然。在重鑄利潤率時，重要的是要記住，正如我們所說，該業務的利潤率是整個企業利潤率的兩倍多。所以你可以用它來達到重鑄的保證金範圍。然後是投資收益，具體數字我們沒有透露。我想你們會在隊列中看到一些可能有助於構建它的信息。我們肯定開始從金融業中看到利率上升環境帶來的一些適度好處。但是，當然，隨著利率上升，我們必須交出投資組合，而這需要時間才能完全完成整個系統。

Yes. I mean, back to Russia for just 1 second. I mean you've got to recognize, as you think about our Russian business. We have been operating there for over 40 years, right? We had a very strong position in the country. The nature of the business was largely project-based work, one-off and starts with a pretty high profit margin, but it was a minimal local presence required to service business. And we're able to leverage our existing global operating infrastructure on the global platform. And thus, able to do this in the country in a very cost-effective manner.

是的。我的意思是，回到俄羅斯只需 1 秒鐘。我的意思是，當您考慮我們的俄羅斯業務時，您必須認識到這一點。我們在那裡經營了 40 多年，對嗎？我們在該國擁有非常強大的地位。業務的性質主要是基於項目的工作，一次性的並且以相當高的利潤率開始，但它是服務業務所需的最低限度的本地存在。我們能夠在全球平台上利用我們現有的全球運營基礎設施。因此，能夠以極具成本效益的方式在國內做到這一點。

Got it. Okay. Okay. I guess it was much higher than double than, I guess, the enterprise-wide margin then much higher. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just switching gears on M&A. I've just noticed -- I mean, the cash balance is very high. You guys are, I think, under your leverage target by quite a bit. And yet the buyback, I think, is definitely a little bit light versus, I think, just given the cash position and the leverage profile. So I'm wondering if -- are you guys contemplating any larger scale M&A? Or I guess, why haven't we seen the buyback really ramp up just given the cash on the balance sheet?

知道了。好的。好的。我猜這比我猜的企業範圍內的利潤率高出一倍多。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是在併購方面換檔。我剛剛注意到——我的意思是，現金餘額非常高。我認為你們在你們的槓桿目標之下相當多。然而，我認為，與僅考慮到現金頭寸和槓桿情況相比，回購肯定有點輕。所以我想知道你們是否在考慮任何更大規模的併購？或者我猜，鑑於資產負債表上的現金，為什麼我們還沒有看到回購真正增加？

So I'll start on M&A, and maybe Andrew can comment a bit about buybacks. As we laid out [in] last year's Investor Day, intentional portfolio management to optimize value is fundamental to our Simplify initiatives, and we're still looking across our options to create value for shareholders, and that includes divestitures as well as opportunistic M&A opportunities. And now that the market is finally tilting in favor of buyers of it, that should strengthen our -- look for opportunities to strengthen our capabilities in key functional areas and important geographies. But we're continuing to employ a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances capital return with internal investments in strategic M&A to look for the highest return possibilities.

所以我將從併購開始，也許安德魯可以就回購發表一些評論。正如我們在去年的投資者日所闡述的那樣，有意的投資組合管理以優化價值是我們簡化計劃的基礎，我們仍在尋找為股東創造價值的選擇，其中包括資產剝離和機會主義併購機會.現在市場終於向買家傾斜，這應該會加強我們——尋找機會加強我們在關鍵功能領域和重要地區的能力。但我們將繼續採用嚴格的資本配置策略，平衡資本回報與戰略併購的內部投資，以尋求最高回報的可能性。

And just on the repurchase front, we have been pretty consistent in our messaging that share repurchases are going to come at the pace of free cash flow generally speaking, unless we find alternative uses for that. The -- I won't get into the details of the cash balance, but we do consider that cash balance as well as the free cash flow when looking at repurchases decisions as well as our financial leverage. And with rates where they are, we're very thoughtful about incremental leverage and the cost that, that comes with that.

就回購而言，我們的信息一直非常一致，即一般來說，除非我們找到其他用途，否則股票回購將以自由現金流的速度進行。我不會詳細介紹現金餘額，但在考慮回購決策和我們的財務槓桿時，我們確實會考慮現金餘額和自由現金流。就目前的利率而言，我們對增量槓桿和隨之而來的成本非常周到。

Got it. So I guess -- yes, so the cash target balance is kind of $1.5 billion sort of where it ended the quarter is kind of the cash level that you guys think is necessary to run at?

知道了。所以我猜 - 是的，所以現金目標餘額大約是 15 億美元，在本季度結束時是你們認為有必要運行的現金水平？

No. I don't -- I think we can run leaner than that, but we do have to keep cash on hand for future obligations as well as funding share repurchases and managing the cash flow.

不，我不——我認為我們可以比這更精簡，但我們必須為未來的債務保留現金，以及為股票回購提供資金和管理現金流。

And our next question coming from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

I'm trying to get at net staffing in the third quarter. How did that improve incrementally? And just around that, maybe as I think Andrew talked earlier about a survey of Willis Re's where clients are seeing pricing in the aggregate up 6% on average. And then you talked about 6% organic revenue growth. So would, a, I interpret that meaning that your kind of client base has been very stable kind of very flattish, and the uptick in organic revenue has been largely by pricing and exposure growth? And then the part b of it is net staffing, how did that change Q-over-Q?

我正試圖在第三季度獲得淨人員配置。這是如何逐步改善的？就在這附近，也許正如我認為安德魯早些時候談到對 Willis Re 的一項調查那樣，客戶看到定價總計平均上漲 6%。然後你談到了 6% 的有機收入增長。那麼，a，我會解釋這意味著你的客戶群一直非常穩定，而且有機收入的增長主要是通過定價和曝光增長嗎？然後它的 b 部分是淨人員配置，這如何改變 Q-over-Q？

So let me start with staffing. And we don't do headcount on a quarterly basis. We will discuss headcount detail in our 10-K. So hiring has been strong, and the hiring activity in Q3 matched that in the first half and it's fortified by the fact that we see the benefit of our retention efforts. Voluntary attrition has remained consistent with the macro environment and the external benchmarks we use to measure this. So our year-to-date hiring has exceeded voluntary terminations. Our headcount continues to increase. And sort of getting to the revenue aspect of your question, we anticipate that the contributions we improve in our talent base to become more meaningful going forward.

因此，讓我從人員配備開始。而且我們不會每季度進行一次人數統計。我們將在我們的 10-K 中討論人數細節。因此，招聘一直很強勁，第三季度的招聘活動與上半年的招聘活動相當，而且我們看到了保留努力的好處，這一事實得到了加強。自願減員與宏觀環境和我們用來衡量這一點的外部基准保持一致。因此，我們今年迄今的招聘人數已經超過了自願解僱人數。我們的員工人數繼續增加。在談到您問題的收入方面時，我們預計我們在人才基礎上做出的貢獻將在未來變得更有意義。

And just on the dynamics around growth, right, there's different factors pushing and pulling in the opposite directions, right? So I think we've been pretty clear that coming out of the breakup of the transaction last year that things like retention, right, were challenged, particularly in certain geographies and certain lines of business. And of course, in the opposite direction, you have rate and new business and things of that nature. So there are offsetting factors that contribute to the organic growth profile.

就增長動力而言，有不同的因素推動和拉動相反的方向，對吧？所以我認為我們已經很清楚，去年交易破裂後，保留等問題受到了挑戰，特別是在某些地區和某些業務領域。當然，在相反的方向，你有利率和新業務以及那種性質的東西。因此，存在有助於有機增長的抵消因素。

Got it. And not to belabor too much, the issue of the EBIT revenue target change. Carl, you seem somewhat optimistic last quarter that you had some puts and takes where you really wouldn't have to worry about pressures. You seem confident that you could [meet] those '22 targets for 2024. So now as you've made a change due to Russia, what I'd like to know is what would give us confidence that we're not going to see another change for the weaker? And if there is another change, what might be some of the risks that are kind of prominent in your mind right now?

知道了。不用過多贅述，EBIT 收入目標變化的問題。卡爾，上個季度你似乎有點樂觀，你有一些看跌期權，你真的不必擔心壓力。你似乎有信心你可以 [實現] 2024 年的那些 22 目標。所以現在你因為俄羅斯而做出了改變，我想知道什麼會讓我們有信心我們不會看到弱者的另一個變化？如果還有其他變化，您現在想到的一些突出風險可能是什麼？

Yes. So when we came up with our initial targets, where we looked at a variety of scenarios to what could happen between now and 2024, right? Different economic outlooks all sorts of different things, right? I don't think we factored in that we would be divesting a business of the scope of and size of Russia for no cash proceeds to reinvest, right? That, I think, is enough of a one-off that we felt justified in the transparency we're giving you on recasting targets. But I thought that we were going to have a divestment for zero, yes, was a bit outside the main term. And frankly, I think that is a bit unique and extraordinary.

是的。因此，當我們提出初始目標時，我們考慮了從現在到 2024 年之間可能發生的各種情況，對嗎？不同的經濟前景各種各樣不同的事情，對吧？我認為我們沒有考慮到我們會剝離俄羅斯範圍和規模的業務，而沒有現金收益進行再投資，對嗎？我認為，這已經足夠一次性了，我們認為我們為您提供的重鑄目標的透明度是合理的。但我認為我們將以零撤資，是的，有點超出主要期限。坦率地說，我認為這有點獨特和非凡。

So bottom line, you feel very confident in '24. And then with that, that extra $60 million of expense saves, would that get you back in ['25] for that operating margin target of 24% to 25%?

所以歸根結底，你對 24 年感到非常自信。然後，額外節省的 6000 萬美元費用是否會讓您回到 ['25]，實現 24% 到 25% 的營業利潤率目標？

We're very pleased with the progress we're making

我們對取得的進展感到非常滿意

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

on the expense savings, and that's one of the reasons why we said we maintained sort of the delta between starting and end to get there and we actually see more daylight developing. That's why we raised the $300 million to $360 million.

關於節省費用，這就是為什麼我們說我們在開始和結束之間保持某種差異以達到目標並且我們實際上看到更多日光發展的原因之一。這就是我們籌集 3 億至 3.6 億美元資金的原因。

Okay. And maybe if I could just sneak one last in. And you did -- Carl, you mentioned at the beginning, attractive opportunities for M&A. Could you give us a sense of what areas maybe that have kind of prompted to see some practice -- what pockets of your businesses might [be compelling]?

好的。也許我可以最後偷偷溜進去。你做到了 - 卡爾，你在一開始就提到過，有吸引力的併購機會。您能否讓我們了解哪些領域可能會促使我們看到一些實踐——您的哪些業務領域可能 [引人注目]？

So while I was speaking attractive, right, it was the fact that valuations appear to be coming down from levels where we just didn't think that they could be value accretive to us, right? And so -- there are opportunities across the span of the businesses we operate in. As we look to what makes sense for us, right, it's going to be, whether it's a geographic adjacency of an attractive economy that will fit our business profile. Or a specialty area where we see that fitting in very nicely to what we do very well in the marketplace.

所以當我說有吸引力的時候，對吧，事實是估值似乎正在從我們認為它們不會為我們增值的水平下降，對吧？因此 - 我們經營的業務範圍內都有機會。當我們尋找對我們有意義的東西時，正確的是，它是否是適合我們業務概況的有吸引力的經濟體的地理鄰接。或者我們認為它非常適合我們在市場上做得很好的專業領域。

And our next question coming from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 與 Truist 的對話。

In the Benefits Delivery and Outsourcing, some of your competitors have had to adjust their assumptions around customer longevity and here I'm talking about TRANZACT. I'm just sort of curious, your current view about your assumptions there. And then also curious your view of the competitive environment as we kind of get into enrollment season, how the competition looks in terms of the push for leads and advertising, that sort of thing?

在福利交付和外包中，您的一些競爭對手不得不調整他們對客戶壽命的假設，我在這裡談論的是 TRANZACT。我只是有點好奇，你目前對你在那裡的假設的看法。然後也很好奇你對我們進入招生季節時的競爭環境的看法，競爭在推動潛在客戶和廣告方面的表現如何，諸如此類的事情？

Sure. So let me begin with the second part of that, and I'll get to the assumptions. We're quite happy with our positioning on TRANZACT and the opportunity, right? Again, this is a place where the market addressable to us, expands by 10,000 people a day. That's how many people become Medicare eligible, newly for Medicare every day. And the people who -- the percentage of people who decide to buy a Medicare Advantage plan, rather traditional Medicare continues to rise and expect it to go from 40% to over 50% by the end of the decade. So there's clearly growth potential in this market.

當然。因此，讓我從第二部分開始，然後我將進行假設。我們對我們在 TRANZACT 上的定位和機會感到非常滿意，對吧？同樣，這是一個我們可以尋址的市場，每天增加 10,000 人。這就是每天有多少人成為 Medicare 資格的新成員。決定購買 Medicare Advantage 計劃而不是傳統 Medicare 的人的比例繼續上升，預計到本世紀末將從 40% 上升到 50% 以上。因此，這個市場顯然具有增長潛力。

As you point out, right, there's been some volatility amongst our competitors and the carriers, and that does have some effect on us, some retention in the -- retrenchment in the market with some of our competitors, and that can impact us to our advantage. But certainly, churn in carriers books of business can impact our persistency rates. But we have taken steps, right? I think that put us in a different position than most of our competitors. We fortified our lead qualification process and have set up a post-placement customer care team to make sure that people are satisfied with the coverage they're electing. And that, plus our disciplined cost management enables us, we think, to continue growing while others have to slow down to focus on their profitability.

正如您指出的那樣，對，我們的競爭對手和承運人之間存在一些波動，這確實對我們產生了一些影響，我們的一些競爭對手在市場上有所保留，這可能會影響我們對我們的影響優勢。但可以肯定的是，運營商業務簿中的流失會影響我們的持續率。但是我們已經採取了措施，對吧？我認為這使我們處於與大多數競爭對手不同的位置。我們加強了我們的潛在客戶資格審查流程，並成立了安置後客戶服務團隊，以確保人們對他們選擇的保險範圍感到滿意。而且，我們認為，加上我們嚴格的成本管理使我們能夠繼續增長，而其他人不得不放慢腳步以專注於他們的盈利能力。

With respect to persistency rates, right, this is something we examined, right, within the portfolio on a line-by-line basis. And we use independent actuaries to make sure that we're validating our team's view of what we think the persistency will be. And continue to evaluate how the market looks and what that will be.

關於持久率，對，這是我們在投資組合中逐行檢查的內容。我們使用獨立的精算師來確保我們正在驗證我們團隊對我們認為持久性的看法。並繼續評估市場的面貌和未來的面貌。

And our next question coming from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 與 Baird 的對話。

It's Mark Marcon from Baird. You mentioned that headcount is actually up on a sequential basis relative to Q2. Salaries and Benefits are down by 2.4% year-over-year, 2.7% sequentially. Is the primary reason why Salaries and Benefits are down on a dollar basis because of FX? And a small element of Russia, you mentioned that the presence on the ground was fairly minimal. So I'm just trying to understand that element and to what -- what do you attribute to the decline to?

我是 Baird 的 Mark Marcon。你提到相對於第二季度，員工人數實際上是按順序增加的。工資和福利同比下降 2.4%，環比下降 2.7%。薪水和福利按美元計算下降的主要原因是匯率嗎？還有俄羅斯的一小部分，你提到在當地的存在相當少。所以我只是想了解那個元素以及什麼 - 你將下降歸因於什麼？

Yes. I think FX is a meaningful component of the difference that you're seeing there in that line item given where our employee bases are located.

是的。我認為 FX 是您在該行項目中看到的差異的一個重要組成部分，因為我們的員工基地所在的位置。

I would add that part of our transformation program involves workforce relocation as we simplify where we do work. And so -- not front office, but a significant part of our mid- and back office hiring has occurred in our international businesses, where we tend to enjoy lower-wage structures.

我要補充的是，我們轉型計劃的一部分涉及勞動力搬遷，因為我們簡化了工作地點。因此 - 不是前台，而是我們中後台招聘的很大一部分發生在我們的國際業務中，我們往往享受較低的工資結構。

We also have the impact of our transformation program and where -- again, where folks are located and making sure that the savings are coming through, and you're seeing some of that materialize there as well.

我們也有我們的轉型計劃的影響——再次，人們所在的地方，並確保節省的資金正在通過，你也看到其中一些實現了。

And I would imagine you're also optimizing different roles and the expenses of various roles in order to optimize things from a long-term perspective. To what extent could trends continue, when we think about it just as it relates to that, if the headcount continues to go up?

我想你也在優化不同的角色和各種角色的費用，以便從長遠的角度優化事情。如果員工人數繼續增加，當我們考慮與此相關的問題時，趨勢會持續到什麼程度？

Yes. We're always looking to make progress in that ratio. It's a constant focus for us. As I said, optimizing the workforce is a really important component of the transformation program. And hence, the comp and bend that falls out of that is an important metric.

是的。我們一直在尋求在該比率方面取得進展。這是我們一直關注的焦點。正如我所說，優化勞動力是轉型計劃的一個非常重要的組成部分。因此，由此產生的補償和彎曲是一個重要的指標。

And that's not just necessarily a location, right? That can be automation.

那不一定只是一個位置，對吧？那可以是自動化。

Great. And then with regards to just going back to the prior question with regards to TRANZACT, I mean is it your general sense that based on everything that you're currently seeing out in the market that TRANZACT should be able to go back to its kind of historic level of performance? Or are there elements that would make it more like last year just because of certain vagaries in the market right now?

偉大的。然後關於回到之前關於 TRAZACT 的問題，我的意思是你的一般感覺是基於你目前在市場上看到的一切，TRAZACT 應該能夠回到它的那種歷史水平的表現？或者是否有一些因素會使它更像去年，只是因為現在市場上的某些變幻莫測？

Yes. A couple of things there. I think, one, it's important to remember that growth rates will likely moderate as that business becomes bigger and bigger. That's just the simple fact of the math. The other thing to keep in mind is that over 50% of the individual marketplace business revenues were generated in the fourth quarter. So it's best to think about that business on a full year basis, not focus on any particular quarter. We performed very strong this year and continue to feel positive about our current market positioning. And we're also encouraged by the early signs we're seeing for the quarter. But again, it's still very early in enrollment season.

是的。那裡有幾件事。我認為，第一，重要的是要記住，隨著業務變得越來越大，增長率可能會放緩。這只是簡單的數學事實。另一件要記住的事情是，超過 50% 的個人市場業務收入是在第四季度產生的。因此，最好以全年為基礎來考慮該業務，而不是專注於任何特定的季度。我們今年表現非常強勁，並且繼續對我們目前的市場定位感到樂觀。我們也對本季度看到的早期跡象感到鼓舞。但同樣，現在仍處於入學季節的早期。

And our next question coming from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特考克斯。

Maybe an update on the magnitude of book settlements you might expect in 4Q and beyond because I know you've maintained the organic growth outlook for 2022, but you faced a difficult compare with the $74 million in book sales from 4Q '21.

也許會更新您可能期望在第四季度及以後的圖書結算量，因為我知道您保持了 2022 年的有機增長前景，但與 2021 年第四季度 7400 萬美元的圖書銷售額相比，您面臨著困難。

Yes. We still expect to see some book sales throughout the rest of the year that relates to 2021 events. We do expect those to normalize even further as 2021 receives from [preview]. This dynamic was anticipated in our long-term forecast for mid-single-digit growth. And as you point out and as a reminder, in Q4 of 2021, there was approximately $74 million of book sales, $39 million of that was in the segments. We do not anticipate that level to repeat this year.

是的。我們仍然希望在今年餘下時間看到一些與 2021 年活動相關的圖書銷售。我們確實希望隨著 2021 年 [preview] 的到來，這些情況會進一步正常化。這種動態在我們對中等個位數增長的長期預測中得到了預期。正如您指出並提醒您的那樣，在 2021 年第四季度，圖書銷售額約為 7400 萬美元，其中 3900 萬美元來自細分市場。我們預計今年不會重複這一水平。

Okay. And can you give us some more color on the tailwinds you're seeing in the Wealth business, particularly in the U.K. And with respect to the increase in project activity related to financial market volatility.

好的。你能否給我們更多關於你在財富業務中看到的順風的顏色，特別是在英國以及與金融市場波動相關的項目活動增加方面。

Yes. So when markets fluctuate a lot, right, our client base in the Wealth business, specifically our retirement business, needs to often reforecasting of what their cash funding requirements or their accounting expense requirements are going to be. So it just generates a significant amount of project work for us in the markets where there are major defined benefit plans. And when the volatility stops, that work will stop, but we don't seem to have any lack of volatility these days. I'd probably offset a bit by the fact that within the Wealth business, of course, we have our investments business and a certain amount of that business is based on asset-based fees and with lower capital market levels over the year, that has been a bit of a headwind for that business.

是的。因此，當市場波動很大時，我們財富業務的客戶群，特別是我們的退休業務，需要經常重新預測他們的現金資金需求或會計費用需求。因此，在有主要固定收益計劃的市場中，它只會為我們產生大量的項目工作。當波動停止時，這項工作就會停止，但這些天我們似乎並不缺乏波動。我可能會被這樣一個事實所抵消，即在財富業務中，當然，我們有我們的投資業務，並且一定數量的業務是基於基於資產的費用，並且在一年中資本市場水平較低，這已經對該業務來說有點不利。

And our last question coming from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 與 KBW 的合作。

So 2 quick questions, if I can. First, I guess, one of the questions again a lot this morning in e-mail is whether there are other regions of the world where you similarly have very outsized margins that are like Russia, just in terms of understanding the scope of margin expansion program and where it does apply?

所以 2 個快速問題，如果可以的話。首先，我想，今天早上在電子郵件中再次出現的一個問題是，世界上是否有其他地區像俄羅斯一樣擁有非常大的利潤率，只是在了解利潤率擴張計劃的範圍方面它在哪裡適用？

So as with any diversified business, we're going to have places and lines of business that are more profitable than the group average and less profitable than group average. And so the answer is we have some, right? But are generally the areas where we have either specialist capability that's hard to replicate or that there are regulatory barriers to entry. So there is competition that might be less than open competition, are going to be areas where there may be opportunities to have higher profits than average in the business. So the answer is there are places. However, we are a broadly diversified business, right? And we do just discuss where our revenue is sourced from. And so there are many geographies where we have significant revenue concentration of the size of Russia. You can see our top 5 listings in 10-K.

因此，與任何多元化業務一樣，我們將擁有比集團平均利潤更高但利潤低於集團平均利潤的地點和業務線。所以答案是我們有一些，對吧？但通常是我們擁有難以復制的專業能力或存在監管進入壁壘的領域。因此，競爭可能比公開競爭少，在某些領域可能有機會獲得高於業務平均水平的利潤。所以答案是有地方。但是，我們是一家廣泛多元化的企業，對嗎？我們只是討論我們的收入來源。因此，在許多地區，我們的收入都集中在俄羅斯的規模上。您可以在 10-K 中查看我們排名前 5 位的列表。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just going back to TRANZACT very briefly. To because other competitors are pulling back and providing, I guess, a better opportunity for near-term growth at TRANZACT. Is that going to have a negative impact on cash flow?

好的。這很有幫助。然後非常簡短地回到 TRANZACT。因為其他競爭對手正在撤退，我猜，為 TRANZACT 的近期增長提供了更好的機會。這會對現金流產生負面影響嗎？

That's a dynamic that we manage very closely, as you can imagine. So we do make sure that the growth we're targeting is profitable growth and do balance that against the cash consumption in that line of business. So we don't expect it to be a significant drag. But of course, we do manage that dynamic closely. .

正如您可以想像的那樣，我們非常密切地管理這種動態。因此，我們確實確保我們的目標增長是盈利增長，並在該業務線的現金消耗中取得平衡。因此，我們預計這不會成為重大拖累。但當然，我們確實會密切管理這種動態。 .

Thank you. I am showing no other questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

謝謝你。我現在沒有提出其他問題。女士們，先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可能會斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。