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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Joe, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Vertiv's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded.
早安.我叫喬,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時,我謹歡迎大家參加 Vertiv 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,此通話正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations.
現在我想將會議議程交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Lynne Maxeiner。
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Thank you, Joe. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Rob Johnson; Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon; and Chief Strategy and Development Officer, Gary Niederpruem.
謝謝你,喬。早安,歡迎參加 Vertiv 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有維諦技術 (Vertiv) 執行主席戴夫·科特 (Dave Cote);執行長羅布·約翰遜;財務長大衛法倫;首席策略與發展長 Gary Niederpruem。
Before we begin, I point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating moments of Vertiv. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language inclusion in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual report, our proxy statement and other filings with the SEC.
在開始之前,我指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將就未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和營運情況。這些前瞻性陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。我們建議您參考今天的收益發布中包含的警示性語言,您可以在我們的年度報告、委託書和向 SEC 提交的其他文件中了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。
Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.
我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。在本次電話會議中,我們也將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的 GAAP 業績以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表可在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們網站 Investors.vertiv.com 上的投資者幻燈片中找到。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.
接下來,我會將電話轉給執行主席戴夫·科特 (Dave Cote)。
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Good morning. We do recognize our first quarter guidance was a low bar. However, it's also important to note that we did better than that. We've been addressing key shortfalls, including execution of an aggressive pricing plan, taking a realistic look at inflationary pressures, creating a more action-focused America's culture, and changing management in areas of the business that did not execute well.
早安.我們確實認識到我們第一季的指導水準較低。然而,同樣重要的是要注意我們做得比這更好。我們一直在解決關鍵的缺陷,包括執行激進的定價計畫、現實地看待通膨壓力、創造更注重行動的美國文化,以及改變執行不佳的業務領域的管理層。
As I mentioned on the last call, I've been more personally involved in the business as we work our way through some of the near-term challenges. The actions we've taken has started to take hold, and we see the benefits playing through. The pricing realized in the first quarter of $40 million exceeded our plan by $10 million. This gives us some confidence we are on track to deliver the pricing plan for the remainder of the year.
正如我在上次電話會議中提到的,在我們努力應對一些近期挑戰的過程中,我更加親自參與了業務。我們採取的行動已經開始發揮作用,我們看到了好處。第一季實現的定價為 4000 萬美元,超出了我們的計劃 1000 萬美元。這給了我們一些信心,我們預計在今年剩餘時間內交付定價計畫。
We're comfortable with what we see in Q2 so far. Demand backdrop remains very favorable. We anticipate even more pricing playing through the P&L, as we continue to burn off more of that lower-priced backlog. The real test will be in Q3, when we expect to see the significant positive impact from our pricing actions that we've already taken. And Q4 will more fully reflect our run rate adjusted operating profit that sets the stage for a strong 2023.
到目前為止,我們對第二季度的情況感到滿意。需求背景仍然非常有利。隨著我們繼續消耗更多低價積壓訂單,我們預計會在損益表中發揮更多定價作用。真正的考驗將在第三季度,屆時我們預計將看到我們已經採取的定價行動產生的重大積極影響。第四季將更全面地反映我們經運行率調整後的營業利潤,這為 2023 年的強勁表現奠定了基礎。
While this has been very painful for everyone, I believe the actions that have been taken, especially related to price, position us well to perform in the second half and next year. We're taking this a quarter at a time, we cleared the Q1 hurdle, and we are on track for Q2, which will be a step up from Q1 performance. We still have to prove to you that we can do this, and we are squarely focused on taking appropriate actions to make sure we do that.
雖然這對每個人來說都非常痛苦,但我相信已經採取的行動,特別是與價格有關的行動,使我們能夠在下半年和明年表現良好。我們一次一個季度地進行這項工作,我們清除了第一季的障礙,我們正朝著第二季的目標邁進,這將比第一季的表現有所提高。我們仍然需要向你們證明我們可以做到這一點,並且我們專注於採取適當的行動以確保我們做到這一點。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.
因此,我會將電話轉給 Rob。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thank you, Dave. It's all about our execution, and we understand that. Q1, as Dave said, was a first step, and we're driving incredibly hard to make sure we deliver on our commitments going forward.
謝謝你,戴夫。這一切都與我們的執行力有關,我們理解這一點。正如戴夫所說,第一季是第一步,我們正在非常努力地確保我們兌現我們的承諾。
Starting with some key messages on Slide 3. I've said this for a while: Demand remains very strong. In simple terms, data growth drives our business. And everywhere you look in business and in everyday lives, everything incorporates data. And Vertiv plays an essential role in making sure those vital applications in society stay up and running.
從幻燈片 3 上的一些關鍵資訊開始。我已經說過一段時間了:需求仍然非常強勁。簡而言之,數據成長推動了我們的業務。在商業和日常生活中,一切都包含數據。 Vertiv 在確保這些社會重要應用程式正常運作方面發揮著重要作用。
Our orders were up 34% in the quarter, even considering significant price increases that were put in place in late 2021 and early 2022. We are relevant with our customers. The order rates are a good scorecard for the market share and clearly demonstrate we are winning in the marketplace, in addition to reinforcing that more pricing is possible.
即使考慮到 2021 年底和 2022 年初大幅提價,我們的訂單在本季度增長了 34%。我們與客戶息息相關。訂單率是市場份額的良好記分卡,除了強調更多定價是可能的之外,還清楚地表明我們正在市場上獲勝。
As Dave noted, we exceeded our first quarter guidance. As anticipated, our adjusted operating profit was under pressure in the first quarter, but we are encouraged by the overdrive on pricing performance and inflation lower in the quarter than expected. That said, with lessons learned from last year, we are taking a prudent approach relative to inflation assumptions for this year. Even though we did better than anticipated in Q1 on pricing and inflation guidance assumptions, we are increasing the overall inflation for the rest of the year of $25 million.
正如戴夫指出的,我們超出了第一季的指導。正如預期的那樣,我們調整後的營業利潤在第一季面臨壓力,但我們對本季定價表現超速和通膨低於預期感到鼓舞。儘管如此,根據去年的經驗教訓,我們對今年的通膨假設採取了謹慎的態度。儘管我們在第一季的定價和通膨指導假設方面的表現好於預期,但我們仍將今年剩餘時間的整體通膨率提高了 2,500 萬美元。
We are also taking additional pricing actions, but have not included that benefit in our guidance. Due to our large backlog that needs to shift, we expect to see more of this additional price show up in 2023. While it's hard to predict inflation and price this early in the year, we are taking a reasonable approach in light of what we are seeing.
我們也採取了額外的定價行動,但尚未將這項好處納入我們的指導中。由於我們需要轉移大量積壓訂單,我們預計 2023 年將出現更多此類額外價格。雖然很難在今年年初預測通貨膨脹和價格,但我們正在根據我們的情況採取合理的方法看到。
We have modified our second quarter guidance to reflect some pull ahead of sales in Q1. For Q2, we expect to continue to see some short-term delays from COVID-19 shutdowns in China. These are timing-related shifts that are not unexpected given the dynamic macro backdrop.
我們修改了第二季的指導,以反映第一季銷售的一些成長。對於第二季度,我們預計中國將繼續因 COVID-19 停工而出現一些短期延誤。考慮到動態的宏觀背景,這些與時間相關的變化並不令人意外。
Supply chain issues are still a challenge. Our pain points continue in these areas of electronic parts, fans and breakers. We are not sitting idle. We are working daily on countermeasures to help us address these challenges and expect that the challenges will continue through 2022.
供應鏈問題仍然是一個挑戰。我們的痛點仍然存在於電子零件、風扇和斷路器等領域。我們並沒有閒著。我們每天都在研究對策,以幫助我們應對這些挑戰,並預計這些挑戰將持續到 2022 年。
As mentioned earlier, 2022 is all about execution. We are on track with the plan we presented for this year. As mentioned, Q1 came in slightly better. We feel good about our trajectory of the quarters ahead, allowing us to deliver a strong second half and putting Vertiv in a very, very good position for 2023.
如前所述,2022 年是執行的關鍵。我們正在按計劃實施今年提出的計劃。如前所述,第一季的表現稍好一些。我們對未來幾季的發展軌跡感到滿意,這使我們能夠在下半年取得強勁表現,並使維諦技術 (Vertiv) 在 2023 年處於非常非常有利的位置。
Turning to Slide 4. This slide summarizes what we see in the market by region. There's no change in our cloud and hyperscale market. Strength continues in Americas and EMEA. The dynamic in APAC remains the same as we described previously. China cloud and hyperscale companies are working to utilize existing capacity to slow down energy consumption. We expect this to be a short-term phenomena, as data continues to grow in China and globally.
轉向投影片 4。這張投影片總結了我們按地區劃分的市場狀況。我們的雲端和超大規模市場沒有變化。美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續保持強勁勢頭。亞太地區的動態與我們之前所描述的相同。中國的雲端和超大規模企業正在努力利用現有產能來減緩能源消耗。我們預計這將是一個短期現象,因為中國和全球的數據持續成長。
The colocation market continues to be very strong in Americas and EMEA. This can also be a read-through to hyperscale strength that often use colocation as capacity for hyperscalers, both internationally and need for capacity in Americas. We do see colocation in parts of Asia slowing, driven by the same dynamic in China, as just described in the cloud market.
美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲的託管市場仍然非常強勁。這也可以是對超大規模實力的通讀,這些實力通常使用託管作為超大規模企業的容量,無論是國際上還是美洲的容量需求。正如剛才在雲端市場中所描述的那樣,我們確實看到亞洲部分地區的主機託管放緩,這是由中國同樣的動態推動的。
Our view of the enterprise and small and medium market remain consistent from Q4, with particular strength in Americas. The communications market remains strong as technology upgrades continue, especially in 5G deployments that are driving our activity. In the commercial industrial market, things remain consistent with previous view as well, and we see good opportunities in this space as a number of vital applications continue to proliferate.
我們對企業和中小型市場的看法與第四季保持一致,尤其是美洲市場。隨著技術升級的不斷進行,通訊市場依然強勁,尤其是在推動我們活動的 5G 部署方面。在商業工業市場中,情況也與先前的觀點保持一致,隨著許多重要應用程式的不斷激增,我們在這個領域看到了良好的機會。
Moving to Slide 5. As mentioned, market demand remains very strong by our orders growth of 34%. The secular drivers of our end market remain firmly intact and seem to be intensified. The proliferation of data continues at an extremely rapid pace. This creates the need for additional capacity, and we are happy with our position as a pure play in this market.
轉向投影片 5。如前所述,我們的訂單成長了 34%,市場需求仍然非常強勁。我們終端市場的長期驅動力仍然完好無損,而且似乎還在增強。數據繼續以極快的速度激增。這就產生了對額外產能的需求,我們對我們在這個市場上作為純粹參與者的地位感到滿意。
I also would say, Vertiv has key differentiators that customers do value. We have always been a technology company, and our increased investment in R&D has provided innovative solutions. We see the product differentiator does matter to our customers, and we are now getting paid for that. Some examples of this is our new DSE thermal products that do not use water and are highly efficient. Another example of innovation has been our launch of our new GXT family of lithium-ion UPS systems.
我還想說,Vertiv 擁有客戶重視的關鍵差異化優勢。我們一直是一家科技公司,我們加大研發投入,提供了創新的解決方案。我們看到產品的差異化對我們的客戶來說確實很重要,我們現在也因此而獲得報酬。這方面的一些例子是我們的新型 DSE 熱產品,該產品不用水且效率很高。另一個創新的例子是我們推出了新的 GXT 系列鋰離子 UPS 系統。
Along with the standard products that we deliver to market, we know that customers have specific needs, with engineering needs for modular to solve their problems. We work hand-in-hand with our customers, not only to provide standard products, but to provide custom products that fit their needs. I'm very encouraged by our pricing realization of 4% in the quarter, which was largely based on backlog booked in 2021, including pass-through pricing of things such as batteries and freights. We saw positive price in all regions, including China. We realize we still have a big hill to climb for the second half, but we have taken an aggressive pricing action to deliver the plan this year.
除了我們向市場提供的標準產品外,我們還知道客戶有特定的需求,以及對模組化的工程需求來解決他們的問題。我們與客戶攜手合作,不僅提供標準產品,而且提供適合他們需求的客製化產品。我對本季 4% 的定價實現感到非常鼓舞,這主要是基於 2021 年預訂的積壓訂單,包括電池和貨運等物品的轉嫁定價。我們在所有地區都看到了積極的價格,包括中國。我們意識到下半年仍有一座大山需要攀登,但我們已經採取了積極的定價行動來實現今年的計劃。
We are on track to deliver the pricing plan for the year. First quarter is an important indicator of our ability to get price.
我們預計將交付今年的定價方案。第一季是我們獲取價格能力的重要指標。
Supply chain, as I said earlier, continues to be a battle every day and has constrained our ability to ship product. The global commodity markets have been negatively impacted by the war in Ukraine. Relative to our guidance, we were favorable to the inflation plan for the first quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we are taking a prudent approach to the inflationary environment, and we're adding $25 million more inflation into the plan for the balance of the year. We have teams at Vertiv working diligently to qualify new suppliers and redesign products to alleviate some of the most critical pain points that we have.
正如我之前所說,供應鏈每天仍然是一場戰鬥,限制了我們運輸產品的能力。全球大宗商品市場受到烏克蘭戰爭的負面影響。相對於我們的指導,我們對第一季的通膨計畫持樂觀態度。正如我之前提到的,我們正在對通膨環境採取謹慎的態度,我們將在今年剩餘時間的計劃中增加 2500 萬美元的通膨。我們 Vertiv 的團隊正在努力尋找新供應商的資格並重新設計產品,以緩解我們面臨的一些最關鍵的痛點。
In summary, markets remain very healthy, and I feel good about our order rates that continues to be strong, even after implementing aggressive price increases globally. Supply chain is a challenge, but we're working through many of these different -- various strategies to navigate the tough environment.
總而言之,市場仍然非常健康,即使在全球範圍內大幅提價之後,我們的訂單率仍然保持強勁,我對此感到滿意。供應鏈是一個挑戰,但我們正在透過許多不同的策略來應對艱難的環境。
Now, I'll turn the call over to David to walk through the financials. David?
現在,我將把電話轉給大衛,讓他了解一下財務狀況。大衛?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Thanks, Rob. Turning to Page 6. This slide summarizes our first quarter financial results, which exceeded our guidance we provided at the end of February, as Rob mentioned. Net sales were up 5.3% from last year's first quarter and slightly up organically at 0.4%. There was an $88 million benefit from the E&I acquisition, a $15 million headwind from the divestiture of our heavy industrial UPS business, and a $20 million headwind from foreign exchange, primarily in EMEA.
謝謝,羅布。翻到第 6 頁。這張投影片總結了我們第一季的財務業績,正如 Rob 所提到的,該業績超出了我們在 2 月底提供的指導。淨銷售額比去年第一季成長 5.3%,有機成長 0.4%。 E&I 收購帶來了 8,800 萬美元的收益,剝離重工業 UPS 業務帶來了 1,500 萬美元的不利影響,外匯帶來的 2,000 萬美元的不利影響(主要是在 EMEA)。
We are encouraged by the $40 million pricing benefit in the quarter, as both Dave and Rob mentioned, and that $40 million exceeded our forecast by approximately $10 million. Most of the backlog that shipped this past quarter was booked in 2021, prior to the additional price increases implemented late last year and early this year. So this is a good signal that our initial price increases are sticking, and we should continue to see our pricing translate into bottom line going forward.
正如 Dave 和 Rob 所提到的,本季 4000 萬美元的定價收益讓我們感到鼓舞,而且 4000 萬美元比我們的預測超出了約 1000 萬美元。上個季度發貨的大部分積壓訂單都是在 2021 年預訂的,之前是去年底和今年年初實施的額外價格上漲。因此,這是一個很好的信號,表明我們最初的價格上漲仍在持續,我們應該繼續看到我們的定價轉化為未來的利潤。
Adjusted operating profit for the quarter of $13 million was above guidance, primarily driven by $10 million of additional price and $15 million lower material and freight inflation versus what was assumed in the guidance. Versus prior year, the $99 million reduction in adjusted operating profit included the $40 million pricing benefit, as well as a $9 million benefit from E&I, which was more than offset by $85 million of material and freight inflation.
本季調整後營業利潤為 1,300 萬美元,高於指導值,這主要是由於價格上漲 1,000 萬美元,以及材料和貨運通膨較指導值假設降低 1,500 萬美元。與去年相比,調整後營業利潤減少了 9,900 萬美元,其中包括 4,000 萬美元的定價收益以及 E&I 帶來的 900 萬美元收益,這被 8,500 萬美元的材料和貨運通膨所抵消。
We also had headwinds from foreign exchange, labor inflation and commissions, which actually came in below our expectations for the first quarter assumed in the guidance, along with impacts from lower volume, a $10 million incremental investment in ER&D.
我們還面臨來自外匯、勞動力通膨和佣金的不利因素,這些因素實際上低於我們在指導中假設的第一季的預期,此外還有數量減少、ER&D 增量投資 1000 萬美元的影響。
We still expect price/cost to be neutral in Q2 and a significant tailwind in the second half of the year, as we will discuss in our guidance slides. Adjusted operating margin was 910 basis points lower than last year, and adjusted EPS declined $0.29, both reductions consistent with the adjusted operating profit deterioration.
我們仍然預計第二季的價格/成本將保持中性,下半年將出現顯著的成長,正如我們將在指導幻燈片中討論的那樣。調整後營業利潤率比去年低 910 個基點,調整後每股收益下降 0.29 美元,這兩項下降與調整後營業利潤惡化一致。
Finally, on this page, first quarter free cash flow was significantly lower than last year's first quarter. The business is typically a user of cash in the first quarter, but we are negatively impacted by lower operating profit and higher inventory this year, with inventory up about $160 million from year end. Although we normally build inventory in the first quarter, we expected a $60 million to $70 million increase. We were negatively impacted this past quarter by both large project timing. And as we mentioned on our previous earnings call, an imperfect SIOP process in the Americas, which drove an inventory increase much higher than our internal expectations.
最後,在此頁面上,第一季自由現金流顯著低於去年第一季。該業務通常在第一季使用現金,但今年我們受到營業利潤下降和庫存增加的負面影響,庫存比年底增加了約 1.6 億美元。儘管我們通常在第一季建立庫存,但我們預計會增加 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。上個季度我們受到兩個大型專案時間安排的負面影響。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上提到的,美洲地區的 SIOP 流程不完善,導致庫存成長遠高於我們的內部預期。
We unnecessarily built inventory in the Americas based upon a higher sales plan, which drove the purchase of significantly more raw material than needed to satisfy first quarter shipments. We continue to address interlock issues within the Americas SIOP, and as a result, we believe that inventory in shipments will balance out over the remainder of the year, consuming most, if not all, of the first quarter inventory build.
我們根據更高的銷售計劃在美洲建立了不必要的庫存,這導致採購的原材料明顯多於滿足第一季出貨量所需的原材料。我們將繼續解決美洲 SIOP 內的聯鎖問題,因此,我們相信出貨庫存將在今年剩餘時間內達到平衡,消耗第一季庫存建設的大部分(如果不是全部)。
The negative cash impact from higher inventory in the first quarter versus our internal expectations was offset by better-than-expected EBITDA and higher cash inflow from deferred revenue, resulting in first quarter free cash flow in line with internal estimates. And last on this page, liquidity at the end of the quarter remained strong at $720 million.
第一季庫存增加對我們內部預期造成的負面現金影響被優於預期的 EBITDA 和遞延收入現金流入增加所抵消,導致第一季自由現金流符合內部估計。本頁最後,本季末的流動性依然強勁,達到 7.2 億美元。
Next, turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our first quarter segment results. The Americas region continues to see outsized impacts from supply chain and net price cost challenges. The supply chain challenges constrained the top line again in the first quarter, with $17 million of organic growth or 3.3% driven entirely by price realization, and we anticipate price will continue to be a main contributor to organic growth throughout 2022.
接下來,翻到第 7 頁。這張投影片總結了我們第一季的部門表現。美洲地區繼續受到供應鏈和淨價格成本挑戰的巨大影響。供應鏈挑戰再次限制了第一季的營收,有機成長 1,700 萬美元,即 3.3%,完全由價格實現推動,我們預計價格將繼續成為整個 2022 年有機成長的主要貢獻者。
Americas adjusted operating profit of $58 million was again dragged down by price/cost, but we anticipate that relationship moving to neutral to favorable in the second quarter, and providing a nice tailwind in the back half of the year given our strong pricing response in the Americas.
美洲調整後營業利潤為5800 萬美元,再次受到價格/成本的拖累,但我們預計這種關係在第二季度將轉為中性至有利,並鑑於我們在2019 年強勁的定價反應,將在今年下半年提供良好的推動力。美洲。
Moving to APAC. Organic sales were down 6.7%, primarily due to lower wind power sales and COVID lockdowns in certain parts of China. Adjusted operating profit of $42 million was down $11 million versus prior year, primarily due to deleverage on the lower volume, as well as unfavorable mix. Price/cost was neutral in APAC in the first quarter, as we continue to see lower levels of inflation reading through the APAC region.
搬到亞太地區。有機銷售額下降 6.7%,主要是由於風電銷售額下降以及中國某些地區的新冠疫情封鎖。調整後營業利潤為 4,200 萬美元,比上年減少 1,100 萬美元,主要是由於銷量下降以及不利的組合而進行的去槓桿化。第一季亞太地區的價格/成本呈中性,因為我們繼續看到亞太地區通膨水準較低。
Moving to the right, EMEA continues to lead in regional growth, with organic sales up over 5%, with a good portion of that coming from price. The price cost headwind in EMEA accelerated in the first quarter, a trend that commenced in December and has been further negatively impacted by higher cost of certain commodities resulting from the Ukraine war. We have implemented aggressive pricing actions in EMEA, as in all regions, and expect price cost to provide a nice tailwind in the second half of 2022.
向右移動,歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續引領區域成長,有機銷售額成長超過 5%,其中很大一部分來自價格。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的價格成本逆風在第一季加速,這一趨勢自 12 月開始,並因烏克蘭戰爭導致某些商品成本上漲而進一步受到負面影響。與所有地區一樣,我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區實施了積極的定價行動,並預計價格成本將在 2022 年下半年提供良好的推動力。
Next, turning to Page 8. This slide provides an updated look at our second quarter 2022 guidance, very much in line with our previous guidance. We believe the second quarter will be the next step-up in financial performance as we execute our plan to deliver a strong second half of 2022. It is our next hurdle to clear, and we feel good about the core assumptions in the second quarter plan, including inflation and pricing assumptions, which are unchanged from previous guidance.
接下來,翻到第 8 頁。這張投影片提供了我們 2022 年第二季指導的更新版本,與我們之前的指導非常一致。我們相信,隨著我們執行計劃,在2022 年下半年實現強勁增長,第二季度將是財務業績的下一步。這是我們需要清除的下一個障礙,我們對第二季度計劃中的核心假設感到滿意,包括通膨和定價假設,與先前的指導一致。
We anticipate net sales to be up 6% from last year's second quarter, with organic sales flat on lower volume offset by pricing. Our expected adjusted operating profit of $70 million to $90 million assumes neutral price cost in the second quarter.
我們預計淨銷售額將比去年第二季成長 6%,有機銷售額持平,但銷售下降被定價所抵銷。假設第二季的價格成本為中性,我們預期調整後營業利潤為 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。
Turning to Page 9. This slide summarizes our full year guidance for 2022. Like Q2, our full year guidance is largely unchanged from what we previously provided, with some timing adjustments resulting from our first quarter beat. We are holding our full year assumptions rather than letting the upside from Q1 flow through. We have a challenging, but manageable hill to climb in the second half of 2022 and are committed to making sure we deliver that plan.
轉向第9 頁。這張投影片總結了我們對2022 年的全年指引。與第二季一樣,我們的全年指引與之前提供的基本沒有變化,只是根據第一季的業績進行了一些時間調整。我們維持全年假設,而不是讓第一季的上漲空間得以體現。我們在 2022 年下半年要攀登一座充滿挑戰但可控制的山峰,並致力於確保我們實現該計劃。
We reiterate the adjusted operating profit guide of $525 million at the midpoint, and we feel good about this plan and the key assumptions included. Delivering the second half will set us up for -- set us up very nicely for a strong 2023, and we are laser-focused on critical levers to make that happen.
我們重申調整後的營業利潤指引為中點 5.25 億美元,我們對該計劃及其所包含的關鍵假設感到滿意。下半年的交付將使我們為強勁的 2023 年做好準備,我們將專注於實現這一目標的關鍵槓桿。
Next, on Slide 10, we provide an update of the quarterly sales guidance compared to our previous guide. This effectively updates the slides we illustrated in our fourth quarter call. Our February guidance is noted at the bottom of the slide and our updated guidance is at the top of the slide. We have reflected slightly higher sales for the full year, primarily in the second half, driven by higher expected volume and a smaller expected headwind from foreign exchange. We continue to expect the volume ramp as we progress through the year. This is the normal historic pattern, but we also expect some of the work we are doing on redesign and qualifying new suppliers to take hold, and we expect to see some incremental benefit from those actions, which will support the additional second half volume. Still, an overall conservative estimate on volume this year that we will continue to assess, but we are mindful that supply chain challenges are not expected to abate anytime soon.
接下來,在投影片 10 上,我們提供了與先前指南相比的季度銷售指南的更新。這有效地更新了我們在第四季度電話會議中展示的幻燈片。我們的 2 月份指導意見位於幻燈片底部,我們更新的指導意見位於幻燈片頂部。我們反映,全年銷售額略有上升,主要是在下半年,這是由於預期銷售增加和外匯預期阻力較小的推動。我們繼續預計隨著今年的進展,銷量將會增加。這是正常的歷史模式,但我們也期望我們正在做的一些重新設計和新供應商資格認定工作能夠取得進展,並且我們期望看到這些行動帶來一些增量效益,這將支持下半年的額外銷量。儘管如此,我們仍將繼續評估今年產量的整體保守估計,但我們注意到供應鏈挑戰預計不會很快減弱。
Turning to Page 11. This slide is an update of quarterly adjusted operating profit guidance. Again, the previous guidance from February is noted at the bottom of the slide, and the updated guidance provided today is at the top of the slide.
翻到第 11 頁。這張投影片是季度調整後營業利潤指引的更新。同樣,幻燈片底部註明了 2 月的先前指導,而今天提供的更新指導則位於幻燈片頂部。
We have provided ranges for adjusted operating profit for each quarter for the remainder of the year, with the midpoint for the full year remaining at $525 million. Price cost will be the biggest driver to sequentially improving quarterly performance, and we have confidence in our ability to realize the pricing plan based upon what we have realized year-to-date and what we see in the order book.
我們提供了今年剩餘時間內每季調整後營業利潤的範圍,全年中點仍為 5.25 億美元。價格成本將是季度業績連續改善的最大推動力,我們有信心根據今年迄今的實現情況和訂單簿中的情況來實現定價計劃。
Quarterly price cost assumptions are summarized as we turn to the next slide, Slide 12. Our first quarter guidance assumes negative price cost of $70 million, while we actually delivered negative $45 million, with price and inflation both favorable compared with our first quarter assumptions. We have maintained assumptions for neutral price cost in the second quarter, while we have increased expectations for inflation in the second half by $25 million, as there continues to be significant uncertainty with both material and freight inflation, notably in the Americas and EMEA. We are working diligently to avoid situations like last year, where we were chasing a growing inflation number for most of the year.
當我們轉向下一張投影片(投影片12)時,總結了季度價格成本假設。我們第一季的指導假設負價格成本為7000 萬美元,而我們實際交付的負價格成本為4500 萬美元,與我們第一季的假設相比,價格和通貨膨脹均有利。我們維持第二季中性價格成本的假設,同時我們將下半年的通膨預期提高了 2,500 萬美元,因為材料和貨運通膨仍然存在重大不確定性,特別是在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲。我們正在努力避免像去年那樣的情況,當時我們在今年的大部分時間裡都在追求不斷增長的通膨數字。
We have also initiated additional pricing actions, given this higher expectation for inflation in the second half, but given the long backlog industry-wide, we are not relying on that materially impacting 2022.
鑑於下半年通膨預期較高,我們也啟動了額外的定價行動,但考慮到整個產業的長期積壓,我們預計這不會對 2022 年產生重大影響。
For the year, we anticipate price cost being a $90 million tailwind, including $135 million tailwind in the second half. This tailwind will set us up very well as we turn the corner into 2023, further enhanced by the year-over-year wraparound impact of our aggressive price actions.
我們預計今年的價格成本將達到 9,000 萬美元,其中下半年的成本將達到 1.35 億美元。當我們進入 2023 年時,這種順風將使我們處於有利地位,而我們積極的價格行動所產生的逐年綜合影響將進一步增強我們的能力。
Finally, for me, it's very clear we are working hard to repair the credibility that was damaged with our Q4 performance. Q1 was the first step in doing that, and we will continue to provide detail on our assumptions and projections to allow for a transparent dialogue on how we are progressing. We know you're watching closely, and it is on us to make sure we execute well and deliver that 2022 plan.
最後,對我來說,很明顯我們正在努力修復因第四季度表現而受損的信譽。第一季是實現這一目標的第一步,我們將繼續提供有關我們的假設和預測的詳細信息,以便就我們的進展進行透明的對話。我們知道您正在密切關注,我們有責任確保良好執行並交付 2022 年計劃。
With that said, I turn it back over to Rob.
話雖如此,我把它轉回給羅布。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thanks, David. And just to reiterate what you said there at the end, first quarter was the initial step in delivering the 2022 plan. We did what we said we're going to do and are working hard, as David said, to earn back the credibility and really unleash the value of this business.
謝謝,大衛。重申您最後所說的,第一季是實現 2022 年計畫的第一步。正如大衛所說,我們做了我們所說的我們要做的事情,並且正在努力工作,以贏回信譽並真正釋放這項業務的價值。
The value drivers of this business are very much intact, and in many respects, being accelerated. We have worked hard to address the key shortcomings from Q4, as Dave mentioned, including taking aggressive price actions, enhancing our Americas culture, making changes in key management positions and implementing core business process improvements. The key actions to make the 2022 plan have been put in place, and we're encouraged by the progress to date.
該業務的價值驅動因素完好無損,並且在許多方面都在加速發展。正如戴夫所提到的,我們一直在努力解決第四季度的主要缺陷,包括採取激進的價格行動、增強我們的美洲文化、對關鍵管理職位進行調整以及實施核心業務流程改進。制定 2022 年計畫的關鍵行動已經落實到位,迄今為止所取得的進展令我們感到鼓舞。
I have confidence we're on track to deliver in our full year commitments. As we deliver on these commitments, this will set us up very nicely for a nice 2023. We are determined to accomplish this, and I take this personally to make sure this happens.
我相信我們有望兌現全年承諾。當我們兌現這些承諾時,這將為我們迎接美好的 2023 年做好準備。我們決心實現這一目標,我個人會確保這一目標實現。
With that said, I want to thank you, and I'll turn the call over to the operator, who will open up the line for questions.
話雖如此,我要感謝您,我會將電話轉給接線員,接線員將開通電話以供提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Sprague。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of pricing-related questions for me. Just first, could you address, in a little more detail, price on orders? And if there's any way to kind of frame that relative to kind of how margin and backlog is developing? I guess kind of the underlying question is, there's a little bit of uneasiness here that the orders are "too strong" because there's not enough price in the orders. So maybe, we could start with that.
謝謝。大家,早安。我只想問幾個與定價相關的問題。首先,您能更詳細地談談訂單價格嗎?是否有任何方法可以建立與利潤和積壓的發展相關的框架?我想潛在的問題是,這裡有一點不安,訂單“太強”,因為訂單中沒有足夠的價格。所以也許我們可以從這個開始。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Jeff, this is Rob. I'll address your second part of the question first, and then David will come in over the top.
傑夫,這是羅布。我將首先解決問題的第二部分,然後大衛將進一步發言。
But I would say that if you take out 2 very large orders that we had, which we did get price on, our orders growth rate was about 12%. That being said, you are correct that we believe, and we've mentioned that earlier, that there is still more price to be had. As we do this, and we said we are and continue to do that throughout the year, we're going to do it more specific to where product lines and areas are growing, where we have the ability to deliver and where we have differentiation. So we do believe there's more price, but in the 34%, there was 2 very, very large orders that had year-over-year price that we were very happy with, which would have taken that orders rate down to 12%. But that being said, we believe there's more price there, and we'll go after it. David?
但我想說,如果你拿出我們有的 2 個非常大的訂單,我們確實得到了價格,我們的訂單成長率約為 12%。話雖這麼說,你是對的,我們相信,而且我們之前已經提到過,還有更多的價格可供選擇。當我們這樣做時,我們說過我們正在並將在全年繼續這樣做,我們將更具體地關注產品線和領域的成長、我們有能力交付的領域以及我們具有差異化的領域。因此,我們確實相信價格會更高,但在 34% 的訂單中,有 2 個非常非常大的訂單,其同比價格令我們非常滿意,這將使訂單率降至 12%。但話雖這麼說,我們相信那裡有更高的價格,我們會追求它。大衛?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. And just to quantify some of that, heading into this year, in order to hit our 2022 plan for price and AOP, we had 5 mid-single digits pricing in the backlog heading into 2022. But we also realized we needed to get low double digits as it relates to pricing on book and ship orders. So those are the orders that we'll progressively ship in Q2, Q3. And I think 85% of our shipments in Q4 will be based on book and ship, so orders that we book post 12/31/21. And we are very much on track to realize that low double-digit pricing, low teen pricing in orders that we booked so far this year.
是的。為了量化其中的一些,進入今年,為了實現我們 2022 年的價格和 AOP 計劃,我們在 2022 年的積壓訂單中有 5 個中個位數的定價。但我們也意識到我們需要獲得低雙倍數字,因為它與預訂和發貨訂單的定價有關。這些是我們將在第二季、第三季逐步出貨的訂單。我認為我們第四季度 85% 的發貨量將基於預訂和發貨,因此我們在 2021 年 12 月 31 日後預訂的訂單。我們非常有希望實現今年迄今預訂的訂單中兩位數的低定價和青少年定價。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Great. And then on the kind of the shorter-term pricing. Is there more scope there on kind of shorter cycle parts of the business in the channel? And I think you typically pass through battery, which was part of the equation, but have you done something incremental on freight or other surcharges that are kind of truing up the numbers and give me a little bit of additional cushion here relative to what you originally thought?
偉大的。然後是短期定價。通路中周期較短的業務部分是否有較多的空間?我認為你通常會通過電池,這是等式的一部分,但是你是否在運費或其他附加費上做了一些增量,這些附加費有點調整數字,並給我一點相對於你最初的額外緩衝想法?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes. A couple of areas. I think you mentioned channel, and channel continues to be one that we watch and we'll continue to look at various product lines there as well. And it could get -- continue to get price as it relates to the channel. That's typically faster moving in quarter, but -- or at least a quarter or 2 ahead.
是的。幾個區域。我想你提到了管道,管道仍然是我們關注的一個,我們也將繼續關注那裡的各種產品線。它可能會繼續獲得與通路相關的價格。這通常會在季度內成長得更快,但是——或至少提前一個季度或兩個季度。
Other areas of surcharges, you mentioned, on freight. We're better at driving that and passing that along. And then I would say, the other area that we talked about that's more shorter cycle is service and service renewal contracts. So those are some other levers that we have and continue to utilize as we drive for price.
您提到的其他領域的附加費,包括運費。我們更擅長推動並傳遞它。然後我想說,我們討論的周期更短的另一個領域是服務和服務續約合約。這些是我們在推動價格時擁有並繼續使用的其他一些槓桿。
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Mr. Sprague I hope you noticed that we -- third time through, we got your name right?
斯普拉格先生,我希望您注意到我們──第三遍,我們猜對了您的名字?
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Yes, you're crushing it, Mr. Cote. Thank you very much.
是的,你太厲害了,科特先生。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Can you give us a little more color into your commentary regarding Q2? As you said, your sales and operating profit guide is slightly lower than in guide. So how much in the way of sales was pull forward? And can you talk about the delays in shipments you're seeing given China lockdowns? What's the risk to get worse versus getting -- get better and how have you factored that into your guide?
您能給我們更多關於第二季的評論嗎?正如您所說,您的銷售和營業利潤指導值略低於指導值。那麼銷售方式向前推進了多少呢?您能談談由於中國封鎖而導致的發貨延誤嗎?與變得更好相比,變得更糟的風險是什麼?您是如何將其納入您的指南中的?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Andy. So overall, we took sales down in Q2 by about $5 million. About $15 million of that was volume. Some was pulled into Q1, but some was also pushed into Q3. Now, we did take overall volume up for the full year, and a lot of that is sitting in Q3. So the increase in Q3 is more than just the push from Q2. But in Q2, we also had benefit from lower foreign exchange than we anticipated. And we also took E&I sales up about $5 million.
是的。謝謝,安迪。總體而言,我們第二季的銷售額下降了約 500 萬美元。其中約 1500 萬美元是成交量。有些被拉入Q1,但有些也被推入Q3。現在,我們確實增加了全年的整體銷量,其中很大一部分是在第三季。因此,第三季的成長不僅僅是來自第二季的推動。但在第二季度,我們也受惠於外匯匯率低於我們的預期。我們的 E&I 銷售額也增加了約 500 萬美元。
If you look at the overall adjusted operating profit takedown, that's about $10 million at the midpoint. So we had previously guided at $90 million, and our range currently is $70 million to $90 million, with $80 million at the midpoint. About half of that is related to that $15 million lower volume and the other half just relating to timing of some fixed costs.
如果你看一下調整後的整體營業利潤下降,中間值約為 1000 萬美元。因此,我們先前的指導價為 9,000 萬美元,目前我們的範圍是 7,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元,中間值為 8,000 萬美元。其中約一半與銷售量減少 1,500 萬美元有關,另一半則與一些固定成本的時間安排有關。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
And then maybe, just shifting gears. A little more color into inflation expectations. You obviously increased your provision for the year by $10 million. I think you had that run rate of $160 million. You moved up to $110 million from $100 million. You mentioned the change is a result of uncertainty in commodities, freight, but you're also being more prudent. Have you seen more issues crop up yet? Or is this just more of a preemptive call given the volatility of the global supply chain?
然後也許,只是換檔。為通膨預期增添一點色彩。顯然,您今年的撥備增加了 1000 萬美元。我認為你的運作率是 1.6 億美元。您從 1 億美元增至 1.1 億美元。您提到這種變化是由於商品、運費的不確定性造成的,但您也更加謹慎了。您是否看到更多問題出現了?或者考慮到全球供應鏈的波動性,這更多的是一種先發制人的呼籲?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. I think that the key word in your question is uncertainty, and I'm sure you're hearing that on every call. We did beat the inflation number implied in our guidance for Q1, but we certainly are not celebrating. We overlaid $100 million at the beginning of the year in our guidance versus what the carryover impact was. So that's the math you're talking about. So we had $160 million of carryover and $100 million of additional inflation.
是的。我認為你問題中的關鍵字是不確定性,我相信你在每次通話中都會聽到這個詞。我們確實超過了第一季指導中暗示的通膨數字,但我們當然不會慶祝。我們在年初的指引中增加了 1 億美元,以對比結轉影響。這就是你所說的數學。因此,我們有 1.6 億美元的結轉和 1 億美元的額外通貨膨脹。
We used $10 million of that in the first quarter. It resulted in a beat, but we also understand the dynamics of inflation and especially where we are today, it generally accelerates. And what we have done for that overlay, we have increased the full year from $100 million to $110 million, and we also retimed the impact of that $110 million. So in our previous guide, we had assumed a flat $25 million per quarter. And we told everyone we would update that after the first quarter, after we understand the updated dynamics. But in our updated guide, that $110 million is now $10 million in the first quarter, $25 million in the second quarter, $35 million in the third quarter and $40 million in the fourth quarter. So that's definitely reflective of our anticipation of the possibility of inflation to continue to ramp up.
我們在第一季使用了其中的 1000 萬美元。它導致了通貨膨脹,但我們也了解通貨膨脹的動態,尤其是我們今天所處的位置,通貨膨脹通常會加速。我們為此所做的努力是將全年從 1 億美元增加到 1.1 億美元,我們也重新調整了這 1.1 億美元的影響。因此,在我們先前的指南中,我們假設每季固定 2500 萬美元。我們告訴大家,在我們了解更新動態後,我們將在第一季之後更新這項資訊。但在我們更新的指南中,這 1.1 億美元現在是第一季 1,000 萬美元、第二季 2,500 萬美元、第三季 3,500 萬美元和第四季 4,000 萬美元。因此,這絕對反映了我們對通膨可能繼續上升的預期。
And we generally talk about inflation in 2 buckets, material and freight. And to anticipate a question on the first quarter beat, most of that was in material. And the freight inflation we saw in the first quarter, notably in the Americas, and also to a certain extent, in EMEA, was higher than we expected. So we certainly think there is risk and uncertainty across both material and freight, but certainly, the freight aspect of what we saw in the first quarter was higher than we anticipated.
我們通常談論兩個方面的通貨膨脹:材料和運費。為了預測第一季節拍的問題,大部分都是在材料上。我們在第一季看到的貨運通膨,特別是在美洲,在某種程度上,在歐洲、中東和非洲,也高於我們的預期。因此,我們當然認為材料和貨運都存在風險和不確定性,但當然,我們在第一季看到的貨運方面高於我們的預期。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
I wanted just to dig in a little bit, take a step backwards and talk about mechanically how you get price. There's a couple of different ways to do it. You can kind of browbeat people where you can change compensation schemes. You can command and control. But how are you guys kind of doing the push-pull on getting the sales force aligned and getting your compensation schemes and everything aligned so this doesn't come back and haunt you in a few years?
我只想深入探討一下,退後一步,機械地討論一下如何獲得價格。有幾種不同的方法可以做到這一點。你可以透過威嚇人們來改變補償方案。您可以指揮和控制。但是,你們如何做推拉來讓銷售隊伍保持一致,讓你的薪酬計劃和一切都保持一致,這樣幾年後這種情況就不會回來困擾你了?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes, Scott, this is Rob. I'll start off. First of all, a couple of things we do to get price. Certainly, there's an approval process. I think we talked about this before, that under certain multipliers in which people try to sell the product, they can go and adjust price for the customer. We've tightened up those approval processes and taken those to a much higher level. For example, David and I are seeing much lower dollar amounts that we are approving. So we've taken the management team across the globe and really have driven that pricing acceptance to be there. So we can control that. That's how we know we're going to get price from that perspective.
是的,斯科特,這是羅布。我就開始吧。首先,我們做了一些事情來獲得價格。當然,有一個審批過程。我想我們之前討論過這一點,在人們嘗試銷售產品的某些乘數下,他們可以為客戶調整價格。我們加強了這些審批流程並將其提升到了更高的水平。例如,大衛和我發現我們批准的金額要低得多。因此,我們在全球範圍內組建了管理團隊,並真正推動了定價的接受度。所以我們可以控制它。這就是我們如何知道我們將從這個角度獲得價格。
And depending on where we are in the world and how the sales team and/or the teams are getting compensated, I'll give you an example. A large portion of our U.S. compensation through our partners and so forth is they get paid more if we get paid more. So it really is in their best interest to go save more. But each part of the market is a little bit different. When we go to pricing, our service contracts, our spare parts, we look at each one of those and understand what we need to get, what we believe inflation could be and then price above that.
根據我們在世界上的位置以及銷售團隊和/或其他團隊如何獲得報酬,我會給您一個例子。我們透過我們的合作夥伴等獲得的美國薪酬的很大一部分是,如果我們得到更多報酬,他們就會得到更多報酬。因此,多存錢確實符合他們的最大利益。但市場的每個部分都略有不同。當我們進行定價、我們的服務合約、我們的備件時,我們會查看每一項並了解我們需要獲得什麼,我們認為通貨膨脹可能是多少,然後價格高於這些。
And quite honestly, I think the market and our customers have understood it's not necessarily a price thing now; it's availability thing, and it's the ability to get it. So that environment has helped us as well drive through it. But I'm confident where we are today, with our pricing process, with our review process, which incorporates the entire management team on a weekly basis. We look at new orders coming in. We see it coming. While we haven't -- we can't jump up and celebrate and say, we've beaten it, and we've got it all done, we feel very confident that we're going in the right direction.
老實說,我認為市場和我們的客戶已經明白,現在這不一定是價格問題;而是問題。這是可用性的問題,也是獲得它的能力。因此,這種環境也幫助我們度過了難關。但我對我們今天所處的位置充滿信心,我們的定價流程和審核流程每週都會包含整個管理團隊。我們關注新訂單的到來。我們看到它的到來。雖然我們還沒有——我們不能跳起來慶祝並說,我們已經打敗了它,我們已經完成了這一切,但我們非常有信心我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Okay. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up...
好的。這很有幫助。然後作為後續...
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Scott? If I could just interject. I would say, at least, in my history, the prospect of getting price increases on a decentralized basis through comp schemes or telling the sales forces is something they need to get, really have a low success rate. And one of the reasons that Rob and his team are being successful here is they have largely centralized control. Whether it's dictating what the price increase is, the multipliers, approving deviations and just not letting any of that come through.
史考特?如果我能插話就好了。我想說,至少在我的歷史上,透過補償計畫或告訴銷售人員來實現分散漲價的前景是他們需要得到的,但成功率確實很低。羅布和他的團隊在這裡取得成功的原因之一是他們在很大程度上擁有集中控制權。無論是規定價格上漲的幅度、乘數、核准偏差,或是不讓任何一個發生。
Because sales forces in general are your worst enemy when it comes to trying to get a price increase. And it's that more centralized drive which dictates as to what it will be and making sure it's showing up in orders pricing is making all the difference for us.
因為在試圖提高價格時,銷售人員通常是您最大的敵人。正是這種更集中的驅動力決定了它的內容,並確保它出現在訂單定價中,這對我們來說至關重要。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
That's really helpful. My second question isn't that good, so I'm going to pass it on to the next guy.
這真的很有幫助。我的第二個問題不太好,所以我將把它傳遞給下一個人。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Hey guys, good morning. Sorry, not sure my question is going to be much better. But the carryover now on kind of price costs into next year, does that incremental inflation this year tempered all your view of what happens next year with the run rate off of the 4Q margin that I think you guys have talked about?
嘿夥計們,早安。抱歉,不確定我的問題會好很多。但是,現在的價格成本結轉到明年,今年的增量通膨是否會緩和您對明年發生的情況的所有看法,我認為你們已經討論過第四季度利潤率的運行率?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. I would say, the way we handicap that internally. So we talked about a $200 million carryover impact for pricing into next year. Based on some of the additional pricing actions we've taken just in the last 2 to 3 weeks, I would certainly take the over on that $200 million.
是的。我想說的是,我們在內部阻礙了這一點。因此,我們討論了明年定價的 2 億美元結轉影響。根據我們在過去 2 至 3 週內採取的一些額外定價行動,我肯定會接手這 2 億美元。
As it relates to inflation, I think that's still uncertain, but there likely would be some carryover impact there. But net-net versus what we were expecting internally, just 60 days ago for 2023, is unchanged, right? The bottom line for Q3, Q4 remains relatively consistent, and that's going to set us up for a very strong 2023 regardless. And the bottom line is if inflation continues to go up, we'll continue to price for it. And we're very confident we can do that based on what we've seen over the last 90 days or so.
由於它與通貨膨脹有關,我認為這仍然不確定,但可能會產生一些遺留影響。但淨淨值與我們 60 天前內部對 2023 年的預期相比沒有變化,對吧?第三季和第四季的底線保持相對穩定,無論如何,這將為我們在 2023 年的強勁表現奠定基礎。最重要的是,如果通膨持續上升,我們將繼續為其定價。根據過去 90 天左右的情況,我們非常有信心能夠做到這一點。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
What's the variability to the margins, if you guys miss on volumes in the second half? You have a bit of a step-up there on volumes. If that doesn't come in, like, what's more important? The price kind of cost scenario or the volumes for every kind of percent of volumes. What should we kind of assume the drop-through would be on the miss?
如果你們錯過了下半場的銷售,那麼利潤率會有什麼變化?你在數量上有了一些進步。如果這不重要,那還有什麼更重要的呢?成本方案的價格類型或每種數量百分比的數量。我們應該怎樣假設下降會失敗?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So our -- we talked a lot about variable contribution margins historically. And historically, those have been in the 40% range. Based on the price cost dynamic we've seen over the last year or so, and it's going to continue at least through Q2 -- being neutral in Q2. It's probably in the lower 30s, and for every dollar of lost volume, we would lose in that $0.30, $0.35 range of AOP.
是的。所以我們——我們在歷史上談了很多關於可變貢獻邊際的問題。從歷史上看,這些比例一直在 40% 的範圍內。根據我們在過去一年左右看到的價格成本動態,這種情況至少會持續到第二季——第二季保持中立。它可能在 30 左右,每損失 1 美元的交易量,我們就會損失 0.30 美元到 0.35 美元的 AOP 範圍。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Right. Okay. Appreciate it.
正確的。好的。欣賞它。
Operator
Operator
Yes. Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.
是的。我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
I guess the first one is, I'm hoping you can just talk a little bit about the free cash flow number for the quarter. I think it was negative $150 million. It was below what I had modeled, at least. I would love to understand how did that stack up versus your expectation? And then do you sort of expect free cash flow to be positive for the remainder of the next 3 quarters to hit your '22 targets?
我想第一個問題是,我希望您能簡單談談本季的自由現金流量數字。我認為是負1.5億美元。至少低於我建模的水平。我很想知道這與您的期望相比如何?那麼您是否預計未來 3 個季度剩餘時間的自由現金流為正,以實現您的 22 目標?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So the $150 million was almost spot on with our internal expectations. Now, there are some puts and takes, and we talked about one in the prepared remarks with inventory. So inventory came in higher than what we anticipated, and we're working on the issues there. But we did get favorability as it relates to the profit performance or the cash impact from EBITDA. And also, we had favorability related to upfront cash in the door from customers, which shows up in the balance sheet as deferred revenue. So that $150 million number was consistent with internal expectations.
是的。因此,1.5 億美元幾乎完全符合我們的內部預期。現在,有一些看跌期權和看跌期權,我們在準備好的庫存評論中討論了其中之一。因此,庫存量高於我們的預期,我們正在解決這些問題。但我們確實獲得了青睞,因為這與利潤表現或 EBITDA 的現金影響有關。此外,我們還享有與客戶預付現金相關的優惠,這在資產負債表中顯示為遞延收入。因此 1.5 億美元的數字符合內部預期。
Now, for the full year, we still are comfortable with the $150 million positive guide. If you look at that from a quarterly basis, we do anticipate another cash burn in Q2. It should not be as high as what we saw in Q1, but we do anticipate significantly positive free cash flow for both Q3 and Q4.
現在,對於全年而言,我們仍然對 1.5 億美元的積極指導感到滿意。如果您從季度角度來看,我們確實預計第二季將再次燒錢。它應該不會像我們在第一季看到的那麼高,但我們確實預計第三季和第四季的自由現金流將顯著為正。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Got it. That's really helpful. If I could just follow up. Your perspective on sort of the implications from China lockdown or part of China getting locked down. I know your APAC revenues were down 6%, 7%. So maybe, you just touch on what's the implication of that from a demand perspective? And then perhaps, importantly, are you seeing any supply chain implications from parts of China being shut down as well?
知道了。這真的很有幫助。如果我能跟進就好了。您對中國封鎖或中國部分地區封鎖的影響的看法。我知道你們亞太地區的收入下降了 6%、7%。那麼也許您只是從需求的角度來談談這意味著什麼?然後,也許重要的是,您是否看到中國部分地區也被關閉對供應鏈產生影響?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes. Rob Johnson here. I'll start off. On the China situation, we've -- anticipation, Shanghai has been shut down. Shenzhen, where we're headquartered, is now opened back up again. Shanghai is where a lot of the ports are for export. We're watching that carefully, but we believe that -- while we can't predict what's going to happen with the COVID lockdown, we believe that they've gone through a pretty rigorous process. And towards the second half of Q2, things will open up and we'll see additional shipments.
是的。羅布·約翰遜在這裡。我就開始吧。關於中國的情況,我們預計,上海已經被封鎖。我們的總部所在地深圳現已重新開放。上海是許多出口港口的所在地。我們正在仔細觀察,但我們相信——雖然我們無法預測新冠病毒封鎖會發生什麼,但我們相信他們已經經歷了一個相當嚴格的過程。到第二季下半年,情況將會好轉,我們將看到更多的出貨量。
So APAC, really, 2 things that impacted. One was COVID and one was some of our wind power business, which can be -- come in cycles from that perspective. But we -- like I said, can't necessarily declare victory on COVID, we'll see what happens there. But in general, our expectations are we'll pick up anything that's happened in March and April. I'll pick that up in later May and June.
亞太地區確實有兩件事產生了影響。一個是新冠疫情,一個是我們的一些風電業務,從這個角度來看,這可能是週期性的。但正如我所說,我們不一定能宣布戰勝新冠病毒,我們將看看那裡會發生什麼。但總的來說,我們的期望是我們會了解三月和四月發生的任何事情。我會在五月下旬和六月拿起它。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
So just maybe to talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Asia on that slide where you guys went through like the green and yellow bubbles. I know colo, it makes sense why you're moving it to yellow. But I guess, when you guys see these digestion periods in Asia, how long does that typically last? So over what timeframe can we maybe return to green?
因此,也許可以談談你們在幻燈片上看到的亞洲情況,你們經歷了綠色和黃色的氣泡。我知道顏色,你把它變成黃色是有道理的。但我想,當你們看到亞洲的這些消化期時,通常會持續多久?那麼,我們在什麼時間範圍內才能恢復綠色呢?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Sure. So there are a couple of dynamics I'll start with, and then Gary can give you probably some more color. As we look at Asia, we break China out, we just talked about kind of COVID and the absorption of the current data centers. I mean, China's put a big plant down on building new data centers until the current data centers get utilized. I think that's a quarter or 2 phenomenon, maybe a little bit longer. It could go through the end of the year.
當然。所以我將從一些動態開始,然後加里可能會給你更多的色彩。當我們放眼亞洲時,我們將中國區分開來,我們剛剛討論了新冠疫情和當前資料中心的吸收情況。我的意思是,中國已經投入大量資金建造新的資料中心,直到現有的資料中心被利用。我認為這是四分之一或兩個季度的現象,也許更長一點。它可能會持續到今年年底。
As it relates to -- which is part of our Asia Pac story, too, India, we see actually strong growth there in colo and hyperscale. So just kind of separate that out, that's an area of what we'll see, call it, extreme growth going forward, and we're in a good position there.
印度也是我們亞太地區故事的一部分,我們看到那裡的託管和超大規模業務實際上出現了強勁增長。因此,只需將其分開,這就是我們將看到的一個領域,稱之為未來的極端成長,我們在那裡處於有利地位。
Singapore has done is kind of similar to China where they've kind of locked down on the number of data centers build, get the utilization up, get the PUEs up. So there's some dynamics there. And again, that's short-lived, a couple 2 or 3 quarters, but that's kind of our perspective.
新加坡的做法有點類似中國,他們鎖定了資料中心建置的數量,提高利用率,提高 PUE。所以那裡有一些動態。再說一次,這種情況是短暫的,只有兩個或三個季度,但這就是我們的觀點。
I don't know, Gary, any other thoughts?
我不知道,加里,還有其他想法嗎?
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Yes, I think that's exactly right, Rob. Nicole, the only other comment I'd add to what Rob said is what we're finding and what the team is pivoting towards really rapidly, even in those areas where maybe, they're not doing as much green bill, there's an awful lot of upgrade retrofit brownfield work that is being done there, which is really good for aftermarket for service for all of these other ideas that we can take to market now.
是的,我認為這是完全正確的,羅布。妮可,我對羅布所說的唯一的其他評論是我們正在發現的以及團隊正在迅速轉向的方向,即使在那些可能沒有做那麼多綠色法案的領域,有一個可怕的那裡正在進行大量升級改造棕地工作,這對於我們現在可以推向市場的所有其他想法的售後服務來說確實很有好處。
So maybe, the large power, large thermal business suffers in China a little bit, but we should see a really active service retrofit, things that we can do to an existing facility to help them up their PUE. That's where a lot of that offset is going to occur.
因此,也許中國的大型電力、大型熱電業務會受到一些影響,但我們應該看到真正積極的服務改造,我們可以對現有設施做一些事情來幫助他們改善 PUE。這就是大量偏移將會發生的地方。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Okay. Got it. That's really helpful. And then, just maybe, a shorter-term question. When you guys put together the 2Q outlook, just anything you'd highlight with respect to growth or margins by region that we should be considering like with the bifurcation of the regional performance.
好的。知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後,也許是一個短期問題。當你們把第二季的前景放在一起時,我們應該考慮按地區劃分的成長或利潤率,就像地區業績的分歧一樣。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So overall organic sales are flat to prior year. If you look at that from a regional perspective, the overall organic growth is probably going to be outpaced in APAC and positive and EMEA, America is flat to down, right? And -- But price will be positive in each of the 3 regions. What is driving that overall sales difference is related to the volume, with volume up in APAC and volume likely down in the other 2.
是的。因此,整體有機銷售額與去年持平。如果從區域角度來看,亞太地區的整體有機成長可能會超過成長速度,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區、美國則持平甚至下降,對嗎?而且──但這三個地區的價格都會上漲。造成整體銷售差異的原因與銷售量有關,亞太地區的銷售量有所上升,而其他兩個地區的銷售量可能會下降。
From a price cost perspective, in Q1, APAC was neutral and the Americas was about $35 million negative and EMEA was about $10 million negative. If you fast forward to Q2, overall, we're anticipating to the neutral price cost versus the second quarter of last year. And likely positive in both Americas and APAC, and slightly negative in EMEA.
從價格成本角度來看,第一季度,亞太地區呈現中性,美洲地區約 3,500 萬美元的負值,歐洲、中東和非洲地區約為 1,000 萬美元的負值。如果快進到第二季度,總體而言,我們預計與去年第二季度相比將保持中性價格成本。美洲和亞太地區可能呈現正面趨勢,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區則略有下降。
So not -- from a price cost perspective, not really significant differences across the 3 regions.
所以不是——從價格成本的角度來看,這三個地區之間並沒有真正顯著的差異。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Just the first question, and look, I absolutely am aware of your Chairman's reputation for delivering the numbers, Dave. But just to understand your guidance, so you did very well in Q1, but if I look at Slide 11, Q2 operating numbers, operating profit, the midpoint was cut by 10%, Q3 by 5%, Q4 by 5%. You sort of talked about the commitment to the numbers. And I just want to understand, is it just pure conservatism? Or how much margin of safety is there in this guidance versus what you guys have given us to February?
只是第一個問題,戴夫,我絕對知道你們的主席在提供數字方面的聲譽。但只是為了了解你的指導,所以你在第一季做得很好,但如果我看一下幻燈片11,第二季的營運數據,營運利潤,中點削減了10%,第三季削減了5%,第四季削減了5%。您談到了對數字的承諾。我只是想了解,這只是純粹的保守主義嗎?或者,與你們二月給我們的指導意見相比,本指導意見有多少安全邊際?
Because the tone I'm picking up is that it does sound like it's pure conservatism. Yes, things have gotten better, but you had enough cushion in the original guidance that you just don't want to raise for the year. Sorry to be so blunt, but I'm just trying to understand what the messaging here.
因為我的語氣是,這聽起來確實像是純粹的保守主義。是的,情況已經好轉,但你在最初的指導中有足夠的緩衝,你只是不想在今年籌集資金。抱歉這麼直白,但我只是想了解這裡的資訊是什麼。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
I don't -- semantically, I'm not sure what the right words are, but we're certainly being cautious. We have reasons to be optimistic based on our Q1 performance with both pricing and what we saw with inflation. But as I mentioned earlier, we're not celebrating the inflation performance, because we saw what happened last year when we consistently underestimated what we saw with inflation.
我不——從語義上講,我不確定什麼是正確的詞,但我們當然會保持謹慎。基於我們第一季的定價表現和通膨情況,我們有理由保持樂觀。但正如我之前提到的,我們並不是在慶祝通貨膨脹的表現,因為我們看到了去年發生的情況,當時我們一直低估了通貨膨脹的情況。
And that is our caution. And in any regard, it's hard to take the first quarter and make broad assumptions with what the full year is going to do. And that's in a so-called normal year. So we certainly don't want to get out over our skis based on what we did in Q1, and we still remain very optimistic about hitting the full year plan. But we have introduced caution, and I think you see that with our assumptions for inflation. We beat by 15, but we took the back half up by 25. And some are looking at that as a -- and I've heard the words cushion used, and we do not see that as a cushion. We see it as a provision for the possibility of higher expected inflation.
這就是我們的謹慎。無論如何,很難以第一季的情況來對全年的情況做出廣泛的假設。那是在所謂的正常年份。因此,我們當然不想根據第一季的表現而放棄我們的滑雪板,並且我們仍然對實現全年計劃非常樂觀。但我們已經採取了謹慎態度,我認為您可以從我們對通膨的假設中看到這一點。我們領先 15 分,但我們領先了 25 分。有些人將其視為一種——我聽說過使用“緩衝”一詞,但我們並不認為這是一種緩衝。我們將其視為對預期通膨上升可能性的一項準備。
At the end of the day, we don't know, but we think it's the prudent thing to do from a macro perspective.
歸根究底,我們不知道,但我們認為從宏觀角度來看這是謹慎的做法。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Yes. Look, I just want to make it clear. I appreciate the track record of the operating team and your Chairman, so I don't want to dismiss that.
是的。聽著,我只是想把話說清楚。我很欣賞營運團隊和主席的業績記錄,所以我不想忽視這一點。
Question #2, are you seeing any incremental decommits from suppliers? And just I'm thinking about motors coming out of Germany, given what's happening in the Ukraine, China COVID lockdowns, just to understand that. Or have things smooth out there?
問題#2,您是否看到供應商有任何增量退出?考慮到烏克蘭和中國因新冠疫情封鎖而發生的情況,我正在考慮來自德國的電機,只是為了了解這一點。或者事情進展順利嗎?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes, Andrew, this is Rob. No, we're not seeing any incremental decommits. And the way we kind of set the year was based on what suppliers could deliver in Q4. So that's why, again, looking at not necessarily what they're telling us they could deliver, but what they've actually delivered. And that's how we really set our plan. So we're -- there's various things here and there, but for the most part, some of the big things we're talking about, we think we've got it at a steady state. And at some point in time, things will get better. Chips are going to take time, that's going to be end of 2023, late '23, maybe '24. Other things we're working through alternative solutions on fans and other things like that.
是的,安德魯,這是羅布。不,我們沒有看到任何增量退役。我們設定年份的方式是基於供應商在第四季可以交付的產品。因此,這就是為什麼,我們不一定要專注於他們告訴我們他們可以交付什麼,而是他們實際交付了什麼。這就是我們真正制定計劃的方式。所以我們——到處都有各種各樣的事情,但在大多數情況下,我們正在談論的一些重大事情,我們認為我們已經處於穩定狀態。在某個時間點,事情會變得更好。晶片需要時間,那將是 2023 年底,23 年末,也許是 24 年。我們正在透過針對風扇和其他類似問題的替代解決方案來解決其他問題。
So as we get more diverse supply base, we'll have a better ability to even shore up any potential decommits because of some world disaster or something. We've got hit and punch with a lot of different things last year and continue to see some of those. But for the most part, we feel good about where the supply base is as of today. And we've taken a realistic approach and what they're capable of doing.
因此,當我們擁有更多樣化的供應基礎時,我們將有更好的能力來支持因世界災難或其他原因而導致的任何潛在的退役。去年我們遇到了很多不同的事情,也會繼續看到其中的一些事情。但在大多數情況下,我們對今天的供應基地狀況感覺良好。我們採取了現實的方法以及他們的能力。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
The first is on pricing. Of the $360 million of pricing assumed in the 2022 revenue guidance, I think as of the last earnings call, $125 million of that had been already booked and was in backlog, and there was $235 million that you still needed to book at higher pricing and on a schedule for '22 delivery. Of that $235 million, can you give us an update on how much of that has been achieved? And is there any store remaining that's needed to be booked at these higher prices?
首先是定價。在 2022 年收入指引中假設的 3.6 億美元定價中,我認為截至上次財報電話會議,其中 1.25 億美元已經預訂並積壓,還有 2.35 億美元仍需要以更高的定價預訂,按計劃'22交付。您能否向我們介紹一下這 2.35 億美元中已經實現了多少的最新情況?還有剩餘的商店需要以更高的價格預訂嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Mark. We can give an update on that. So your numbers were spot on. So heading into the year, we had $125 million in backlog. $235 million was go get in book and ship. If we snap the chalk line at the end of Q1, of course, we had $40 million in actuals. And we also were able to actually include additional pricing in backlog from orders.
是的。謝謝,馬克。我們可以提供最新情況。所以你的數字是準確的。因此,進入今年,我們的積壓金額為 1.25 億美元。 2.35 億美元用於預訂和發貨。當然,如果我們在第一季末折斷粉筆線,我們的實際金額將達到 4000 萬美元。我們還能夠在積壓訂單中實際包含額外的定價。
So at the end of Q1, we had about $155 million of pricing in backlog that we would realize over Q2 through Q4. And then we had $165 million that is the go-get and book and ship. So if you take the $360 million, that hasn't changed. We have $40 million in actual, $155 million in backlog at the end of Q1, and the book and ship number is $165 million for the full $360 million.
因此,在第一季末,我們有大約 1.55 億美元的積壓定價,我們將在第二季到第四季實現這一目標。然後我們就有了 1.65 億美元,這是我們的首選、預訂和發貨。因此,如果您拿走 3.6 億美元,情況並沒有改變。截至第一季末,我們的實際金額為 4,000 萬美元,積壓金額為 1.55 億美元,預訂和出貨金額為 1.65 億美元,總計 3.6 億美元。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Got it. And my follow-up question was on the inflationary environment and what you're seeing for cost. If I understood correctly, as of the last earnings call, the $260 million of cost inflation that was assumed for the year, it was $160 million based on what you were seeing at spot, and then there was $100 million that was just buffer for potential future cost increases. Now, at $270 million, I wanted to check on the composition of that and clarify, one, is the $270 million reflecting spot? Because we've seen some big moves up in things like steel and freight, so I did want to make sure that, that in this $270 million number.
知道了。我的後續問題是關於通貨膨脹環境以及您所看到的成本。如果我理解正確的話,截至上次財報電話會議,假設今年的成本通膨為 2.6 億美元,根據您現場看到的情況,這是 1.6 億美元,然後還有 1 億美元只是潛在的緩衝未來成本增加。現在,2.7 億美元,我想檢查它的組成,並澄清,一,2.7 億美元是反射點嗎?因為我們看到鋼鐵和貨運等領域出現了一些大幅上漲,所以我確實想在這個 2.7 億美元的數字中確定這一點。
And then the second part of it, is there any conservatism now for cost increases, maybe you haven't seen, or is there no more buffer and is it just based on the spot moves?
然後是第二部分,現在對於成本增加是否有任何保守主義,也許你還沒有看到,或者是否沒有更多的緩衝,是否只是基於現貨走勢?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. I think it's a combination of what we're seeing today and the expectation that inflation should continue to accelerate. So the $100 million provision we had for new inflation in 2022, we increased that to $110 million. But as we mentioned of note is the timing. So we had about $10 million of favorability in Q1 -- I'm sorry, $15 million of favorability in Q1, but we took the back half of the year up by $25 million.
是的。我認為這是我們今天所看到的情況和通膨應繼續加速的預期的結合。因此,我們為 2022 年新通膨準備的 1 億美元,已增加至 1.1 億美元。但正如我們所提到的,值得注意的是時機。因此,我們在第一季度獲得了大約 1000 萬美元的好感度——抱歉,第一季的好感度為 1500 萬美元,但我們在今年下半年增加了 2500 萬美元。
Now, we do have some internal breakdowns of where we expect to see that from a regional perspective and a breakdown between material and freight, but we certainly are -- understand the fungibility and the uncertainty as it relates to inflation. So we certainly have provision, and we do not use terms like cushion or buffer as it relates to our approach to this inflation. We are assuming that this is going to happen, and that's very critical and key for us as we continue to price for it.
現在,我們確實有一些內部細分,我們期望從區域角度看到這一點,以及材料和貨運之間的細分,但我們當然了解與通貨膨脹相關的可替代性和不確定性。因此,我們當然有準備金,而且我們不使用緩衝或緩衝等術語,因為它與我們應對通膨的方法有關。我們假設這將會發生,這對我們來說非常關鍵和關鍵,因為我們將繼續為其定價。
So we're all hopeful, and I think every company out there is hopeful that inflation does not accelerate from where we are today. But we are not making that assumption. We are going to continue to assume that it gets worse. And if you look at that ramp of that $110 million. As we mentioned, we used $10 million, Q1. We've provided for $25 million in Q2, $35 million in Q3 and $40 million in Q4.
所以我們都充滿希望,我認為每家公司都希望通貨膨脹不會從今天的水平加速。但我們並沒有做出這樣的假設。我們將繼續假設情況會變得更糟。如果你看看這 1.1 億美元的增幅。正如我們所提到的,我們第一季使用了 1000 萬美元。我們在第二季度提供了 2500 萬美元,在第三季度提供了 3500 萬美元,在第四季度提供了 4000 萬美元。
So we will be happy if things do not end up like that, but we are absolutely assuming that it will.
因此,如果事情沒有這樣結束,我們會很高興,但我們絕對假設它會這樣。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Okay. Just a brief follow-up on that, just to make sure I understand this. So even if steel were to be sustained at the kind of spot prices it's been at recently, and the cost of shipping things around the world stays at these levels or perhaps even gets a little bit worse, you guys still feel like your cost estimate for inflation this year is appropriate?
好的。只是簡短的跟進,只是為了確保我理解這一點。因此,即使鋼鐵現貨價格維持在最近的水平,並且世界各地的運輸成本保持在這些水平,甚至可能變得更糟,你們仍然覺得你們的成本估算是今年通膨合適嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
We certainly don't have a crystal ball, but based on what we are seeing today with inflation, we are very comfortable with that $110 million. Are there scenarios that could come in higher? Absolutely. We saw that last year when we were trying to handicap probabilities of higher prices. But we are certainly expecting continued acceleration. But we believe what we have provided for in the $110 million should cover a realistic expectation of inflation for the rest of the year.
我們當然沒有水晶球,但根據我們今天所看到的通貨膨脹情況,我們對這 1.1 億美元感到非常滿意。是否有可能出現更高的情況?絕對地。去年,當我們試圖限制價格上漲的可能性時,我們就看到了這一點。但我們當然期待繼續加速。但我們相信,我們提供的 1.1 億美元應該能夠滿足今年剩餘時間的實際通膨預期。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
And Mark, we'll continue, as we mentioned. Pricing isn't a one-and-done thing. It's a daily weekly activity for all of us. So as we see anything, we'll continue to drive the pricing up accordingly as we go forward.
馬克,正如我們所提到的,我們將繼續。定價並不是一勞永逸的事。這是我們所有人每天每週的活動。因此,當我們看到任何情況時,我們將繼續相應地提高價格。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I wanted to circle back to orders. You called out 2 large orders. And I don't recall -- maybe, I'm wrong here, but I don't really recall large orders swinging the number that much. So my question is, are we seeing here some evidence of increased product scope with E&I coming through on some of the orders here?
我想回到訂單上來。您發出了 2 個大訂單。我不記得了——也許,我錯了,但我真的不記得大訂單對數字的影響有那麼大。所以我的問題是,我們是否在這裡看到一些證據表明 E&I 的一些訂單增加了產品範圍?
And then maybe, just talk about E&I, how that's been tracking? I understand it's sort of in line with your FY '20 plan so far. But margins, I think, are still tracking well below where the M&A plan was. I'm just wondering what the recovery plan looks like for E&I margins?
然後也許,只是談談 E&I,它的跟踪情況如何?據我所知,到目前為止,這有點符合您 20 財年的計劃。但我認為,利潤率仍遠低於併購計畫的水平。我只是想知道 E&I 利潤率的恢復計劃是什麼樣的?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Joe, I'll take the first part of that. This is Rob. And then Gary, the second. As it relates to a couple of large orders, I think we've mentioned before, we -- and I talked a little bit about the innovation. Some of our new innovations have really taken traction, and people who hadn't bought those solutions in the past are buying those. And then in some cases, securing more than a quarter's worth of actual supply. We're seeing 12 months supply being orders pace for that.
喬,我先講第一部分。這是羅布。然後是第二個加里。由於它涉及幾個大訂單,我想我們之前已經提到過,我們 - 我也談過一些關於創新的事情。我們的一些新創新確實引起了人們的關注,過去沒有購買這些解決方案的人正在購買這些解決方案。然後在某些情況下,確保超過四分之一的實際供應量。我們看到 12 個月的供應量就是訂單的速度。
So yes. So we kind of wanted to take those 2 orders out that were around some of the new products we've had to say, okay, our actual growth rate's around 12%. But that being said, we still very feel confident that there's more price to go get. And normally, we don't talk about who the orders come in from and what, but we are beginning to see larger orders in the past. And then from the adoption of some of our new technologies that people haven't used in the past and shifting anyway from some of the traditional methodologies of, let's say, thermal management.
所以是的。因此,我們有點想取消這兩個與一些新產品相關的訂單,我們不得不說,好吧,我們的實際成長率約為 12%。但話雖這麼說,我們仍然非常有信心有更多的價格可以買到。通常,我們不會談論訂單來自誰以及什麼,但我們過去開始看到更大的訂單。然後,我們採用了一些人們過去沒有使用過的新技術,並從一些傳統方法(例如熱管理)中轉變。
As regards to E&I, Gary?
至於 E&I,加里?
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Yes, absolutely, Rob. Nigel, yes, we are pretty happy with the traction on the E&I side. So some of that incremental revenue that comes in, some of it flows through the E&I. It's a little bit closer to the Vertiv, but it's a lot of the solutions orientation that we're getting, being able to couple switch gear and possibly aim through the broader solutions.
是的,絕對是,羅布。 Nigel,是的,我們對 E&I 方面的牽引力感到非常滿意。因此,部分增量收入,部分流經經濟與工業部門。它與 Vertiv 有點接近,但我們得到了許多解決方案的導向,能夠耦合開關設備,並可能瞄準更廣泛的解決方案。
We're also being pretty effective at this point, of ramping up the sales forces, particularly in that Tier 2 colo space, the enterprise space to sell additional bus lane switch gear. So all of that is in flight and on that side, probably tracking a little bit even faster than what we thought, being offset a little bit because it's just tough to combine some of the cost synergies, clearly, as fast as we thought with the supply chain and inflation piece of it. But if you take all of that and net it out, we're pretty much right on plan.
在這一點上,我們在增強銷售團隊方面也非常有效,特別是在二級託管空間,即銷售額外公車道開關設備的企業空間。因此,所有這些都在飛行中,在這一方面,可能比我們想像的更快一點,被抵消一點,因為很難將一些成本協同效應結合起來,顯然,就像我們想像的那樣快供應鍊和通貨膨脹是其中的一部分。但如果你把所有這些都考慮進去,我們的計劃基本上就正確了。
And if you look at no different than the core Vertiv Q4, if you look at the E&I Q4, they'll be in the low 20s percent AOP type of run rate, which bodes really well to get us back on plan to where we should be for 2023. So all things considered, pretty happy with how the integration is going, the culture, the sales force, the customer responsiveness. The pricing, e&I got a late start on, and we're very open about that even on the last call. But if you look at what they've done over the last couple of months, there's good momentum there. So overall, really -- pretty pleased with the way that's playing out.
如果你看一下與核心 Vertiv Q4 沒有什麼不同,如果你看一下 E&I Q4,它們將處於低 20% 的 AOP 類型運行率,這對於讓我們回到計劃中的目標來說是一個好兆頭到2023 年。考慮到所有因素,我們對整合的進展、文化、銷售團隊和客戶回應能力非常滿意。在定價方面,e&I 起步較晚,即使在最後一次電話會議上我們對此也持非常開放的態度。但如果你看看他們過去幾個月所做的事情,你會發現勢頭良好。總的來說,我對目前的進展非常滿意。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
That's great news. And then, my follow-on question is, maybe, you talk about the efforts around qualifying new suppliers and reengineering products. That was a big initiative kind of towards the end of 2021. So just wondering if we've made much traction there and whether that's having any discernible impact in terms of supply chain?
這真是個好消息。然後,我的後續問題是,也許您會談論圍繞新供應商資格認證和產品再造所做的努力。這是 2021 年底的一項重大舉措。所以想知道我們是否在這方面取得了很大的進展,以及這是否對供應鏈產生了任何明顯的影響?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Sure. Nigel, this is Rob. Absolutely. And we continue to do that today. It's not an effort that's completed. Some of these redesigns are spins of new boards and the new code for different chips. Those take longer, right? Those don't necessarily happen within a quarter. We see good progress on that. Some focused areas for us is some diversification in some of the breakers that we use. And we've been well through the qualifications of that, and that should help us as we go through this and continue to work really hard on the fan supply and looking at and qualifying and bringing on more suppliers there and different designs as well.
當然。奈傑爾,這是羅布。絕對地。今天我們繼續這樣做。這不是一個已經完成的努力。其中一些重新設計是新板的旋轉和不同晶片的新代碼。這些需要更長的時間,對嗎?這些不一定會在一個季度內發生。我們看到這方面取得了良好進展。我們關注的一些領域是我們使用的一些破碎機的多樣化。我們已經很好地通過了資格認證,這應該對我們有幫助,因為我們經歷了這個過程,並繼續在風扇供應方面努力工作,尋找和資格認證,並引入更多的供應商和不同的設計。
So I feel good about that, and I feel like that -- some of those, after we get through released to manufacturing and the volumes can be hit by some of these new suppliers, yes, it could be a positive thing for at least towards the end of the year going into 2023. So I think what we've done, a lot of that will benefit from -- in the latter part of this year, really kind of into next year as we move forward.
所以我對此感覺很好,而且我感覺 - 其中一些,在我們完成發佈到製造之後,數量可能會受到其中一些新供應商的影響,是的,這可能是一件積極的事情,至少對於到2023 年底。所以我認為我們所做的,其中許多都將受益於——在今年下半年,隨著我們的前進,真正進入明年。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Lance Vitanza with Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自蘭斯·維坦扎和考恩。
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Congrats on the quarter. I have a 2-part question regarding price increases and Vertiv competitiveness versus its peers. It's probably no surprise, but I'm hearing some anecdotes that some of your customers are none too pleased, and in some cases, have threatened to move business from Vertiv to other suppliers the first chance they get.
恭喜本季。我有一個由兩部分組成的問題,涉及價格上漲以及 Vertiv 相對於同行的競爭力。這可能並不奇怪,但我聽說一些軼事表明,您的一些客戶不太高興,在某些情況下,他們威脅要一有機會就把業務從 Vertiv 轉移到其他供應商。
Now, I get it. No one likes to pay more, and we all like to complain when we're forced to pay more. So who knows what eventually happens. But my question is, a, do you worry that your price increases may ultimately leave you in a less competitive position versus your peers? And b, what, if anything, does this feedback suggest about your ability to maintain price when the supply chain eventually eases?
現在我懂了。沒有人願意多付錢,當我們被迫多付錢時,我們都喜歡抱怨。所以誰知道最終會發生什麼。但我的問題是,您是否擔心價格上漲最終可能會讓您與同行相比處於不利的競爭地位? b,當供應鏈最終放鬆時,此回饋是否表明您有能力維持價格?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Lance, this is Rob. Thanks for the question. I appreciate you joining today.
蘭斯,這是羅布。謝謝你的提問。我很感謝你今天加入。
What I would say as it relates to the competitiveness and the pricing, what we found something that we've learned really through all of this, which has been a good thing is, when we innovate, when we have a superior solution out there in the market, we can get price for that. And so as we think about our pricing, it isn't just across the board price increases. And what we found is some of our leading innovative products that typically compete against, I would say, more small regional mom-and-pops, is that people are willing to pay for that. They want a global supplier.
我想說的是,因為它與競爭力和定價有關,我們發現我們透過這一切確實學到了一些東西,這是一件好事,當我們創新時,當我們在其中擁有卓越的解決方案時市場,我們可以得到價格。因此,當我們考慮定價時,不僅僅是全面提價。我們發現,我們的一些領先的創新產品通常與規模較小的地區性夫妻店競爭,但人們願意為此付費。他們想要一個全球供應商。
So we feel good about that price sticking for the value we're delivering. I would say, we probably underpriced on some of these innovative solutions with the value that they bring to our customers. And maybe, some frustration you're hearing out there because we're not seeing -- we're seeing in areas and finding areas where actually our prices were lower than they should be or lower than competitors. The market is frustrated in general about delivery and delivery timelines, because the growth that we're seeing is unprecedented. So I would say, maybe, some of the noise, at least as I hear it, say we want to get those products. We want to -- it's not an issue of the price, it's an issue of delivery, and we need those products sooner rather than later.
因此,我們對這個價格符合我們所提供的價值感到滿意。我想說,我們可能低估了其中一些創新解決方案的價格,因為它們為我們的客戶帶來了價值。也許,你聽到的一些挫折感是因為我們沒有看到——我們在一些地區看到並發現我們的價格實際上低於應有的價格或低於競爭對手的價格。市場總體上對交付和交付時間表感到沮喪,因為我們看到的成長是前所未有的。所以我想說,也許一些聲音,至少我聽到的,是說我們想要得到這些產品。我們希望-這不是價格問題,而是交貨問題,我們需要這些產品宜早不宜遲。
And so our thesis has always been and will continue to be as an innovator and continue to provide more value to our customers, the market will pay for that. For example, some of the PUE stuff that we're doing in our thermal units in China, we're one of the few, if not only manufacturers now in China that can meet the government-mandated PUEs coming forward. So we will continue to differentiate on innovation and continue to drive price as it relates to that.
因此,我們的論文一直並將繼續作為創新者,繼續為我們的客戶提供更多價值,市場將為此付出代價。例如,我們在中國的熱力機組中所做的一些 PUE 工作,我們是中國為數不多的(即使不是唯一的)能夠滿足未來政府規定的 PUE 的製造商之一。因此,我們將繼續在創新上實現差異化,並繼續推動與之相關的價格。
In areas that probably more commoditized, what we rely on there and it works is our service organization. People pay more for Vertiv products if they can get the Vertiv service behind that. So that's another, I would call, a key differentiator for us that we're seeing, that through these tough times, people want our service.
在可能更商品化的領域,我們所依賴且有效的就是我們的服務組織。如果人們能夠獲得 Vertiv 背後的服務,他們就會為 Vertiv 產品支付更高的價格。因此,我認為這是我們所看到的另一個關鍵差異化因素,即在這些艱難時期,人們需要我們的服務。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rob Johnson for any closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給羅布·約翰遜(Rob Johnson)發表閉幕詞。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thank you, operator. While the macro environment remains volatile, I feel good about the actions we have taken to deliver on our commitments. I understand we are still in the process of earning back your trust, but believe our Q1 performance is the first step on that path. And I look forward to doing the same over the next several quarters.
謝謝你,接線生。儘管宏觀環境仍然不穩定,但我對我們為履行承諾而採取的行動感到滿意。我知道我們仍在重新贏得您的信任,但相信我們第一季的表現是這條道路上的第一步。我期待在接下來的幾個季度裡做同樣的事情。
I want to express my appreciation to all of our employees, partners, customers and investors for their continued support, and I want to say thanks to everyone for being on the call today. This concludes our call.
我想對我們所有的員工、合作夥伴、客戶和投資者的持續支持表示感謝,並對今天參加電話會議的所有人表示感謝。我們的通話到此結束。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。