Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Betsy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Vertiv's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    早安.我是貝琪,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在,我謹代表Vertiv公司歡迎各位參加2021財年第二季財報電話會議。 (接線生提示)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I'll now turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    現在我將把節目交給今天的主持人,投資者關係副總裁琳恩·馬克西納。

  • Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

    Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

  • Great. Thank you, Betsy. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Rob Johnson; Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon; and Chief Strategy and Development Officer, Gary Niederpruem.

    好的。謝謝你,貝齊。早安,歡迎參加Vertiv 2021財年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有Vertiv執行董事長戴夫·科特、首席執行官羅伯·約翰遜、首席財務官大衛·法倫以及首席戰略與發展官加里·尼德普魯姆。

  • Before we begin, I point out that during the course of the call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our registration statement, our proxy statement and other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.

    在會議開始之前,我謹指出,在本次電話會議中,我們將就未來事件(包括Vertiv未來的財務和營運績效)作出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定性因素的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱今日發布的獲利報告中的警示性聲明,您也可以在我們的註冊聲明、委託書以及提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的資訊。我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

  • During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將同時介紹GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利新聞稿和投資者關係簡報(可在investors.vertiv.com網站查看)中找到我們的GAAP業績以及GAAP與非GAAP的調節表。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.

    接下來,我將把電話交給執行主席戴夫·科特。

  • David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

    David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

  • Good morning, everyone. I know I've said this many times, but I truly believe it, though, I guess I'm going to continue to say it. Vertiv is a great company and is in a really good industry. No company, no industry is ever perfect, of course, but from what I've seen over the last 8 years, I am very pleased with the company, the management team and the industry.

    大家早安。我知道我已經說過很多次了,但我還是真心這麼認為,所以我想我還會繼續說下去。 Vertiv 是一家很棒的公司,它所在的行業也非常好。當然,沒有哪家公司、哪個產業是完美的,但就我過去八年的所見所聞而言,我對這家公司、管理團隊以及整個產業都感到非常滿意。

  • Vertiv continues to make all of the right investments in product development in the Vertiv User Experience, in the Vertiv Operating System and many more arenas, which are all areas that will pay off more in the future than they even have to date. Truly is personifying the winning now winning later mantra that you all know is so important to me.

    Vertiv持續在Vertiv用戶體驗、Vertiv作業系統以及其他許多領域進行正確的產品研發投資,這些領域的未來收益將遠超目前。這正是「現在獲勝,未來必勝」理念的完美體現,而你們都知道,這對我來說至關重要。

  • The focus on today and tomorrow at the same time is especially true as Rob and his team focus on taking care of customers. It's an age old concept, but it sure has been proven to be true. And if you do a great job of taking care of customers, that is one of the best long-term strategies you can have.

    同時專注於當下和未來,這一點在羅布和他的團隊專注於客戶服務時體現得尤為明顯。這雖然是一個古老的理念,但已被證明行之有效。如果你能出色地服務好客戶,這無疑是最佳的長期策略之一。

  • So it is costing us something to do, as you can see from the numbers, with those [flat back eyes] that Rob and his team have had to do to. But all of us are absolutely convinced it's the right thing to do. Taking care of customers today and tomorrow every way you can is clearly a winning strategy.

    所以,正如您從數據中看到的,羅布和他的團隊不得不採取的這些措施(眼部扁平化)確實需要花費我們一些成本。但我們所有人都堅信這是正確的做法。盡一切可能照顧好客戶,無論現在或將來,這顯然是一種勝利策略。

  • So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.

    那麼,接下來我將把電話交給羅布。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Dave, and thanks for your guidance that you provide both to me and to my executive team in supporting Vertiv in all the ways that you do. We are better and a stronger company having you as our Executive Chairman. To all of you on today's call, thank you for being here. And I'm eager to share with you our performance for the 2021 second quarter, our outlook on the market and information about a few of our growth initiatives that we're driving at Vertiv.

    謝謝戴夫,感謝您一直以來對我和我的管理團隊的指導,感謝您在各方面對Vertiv的支持。有您擔任執行董事長,我們公司變得更好、更強大。感謝今天所有參加電話會議的各位。我很高興與大家分享我們2021年第二季的業績、市場展望以及Vertiv正在推進的一些成長計劃。

  • There are 5 key messages I want to convey today. And David Fallon, our CFO, will take you into a deeper dive of the financials in just a few minutes. First of all, demand for Vertiv products and services is strong. During our last earnings call, we reported first quarter sales that were up more than 22% and orders that were up 21% compared to the first quarter of last year.

    今天我想傳達五個關鍵訊息。我們的財務長大衛法倫(David Fallon)將在幾分鐘內為大家深入分析財務數據。首先,市場對Vertiv產品和服務的需求強勁。在上次財報電話會議上,我們公佈了第一季銷售額年增超過22%,訂單量年增21%。

  • I am pleased to report that the sales and orders are up again in Q2. Sales were up 25% and orders were up over 24%. Having sales and orders growth in excess of 20% in the back-to-back quarters demonstrates our customer-first approach and that it is paying off. In addition, our Q2 backlog rose to $2.3 billion, the highest it's ever been.

    我很高興地報告,第二季銷售額和訂單量再次成長。銷售額成長了25%,訂單量成長超過24%。連續兩季銷售額和訂單量成長超過20%,充分體現了我們以客戶為先的經營理念,並且取得了成效。此外,我們第二季的積壓訂單金額增加至23億美元,創歷史新高。

  • Second, profitability is up. This quarter, our adjusted operating profit was $134 million, which is up $31 million or 30% from last year's second quarter. This resulted in adjusted operating margin expansion of 40 basis points. Third, Year-to-date free cash flow is greater today than it was this time last year. Free cash flow for Q2 was $41 million and year-to-date, $84 million. From a year-to-date perspective, this represents an improvement of over $225 million versus the first half of 2020.

    其次,盈利能力有所提升。本季,我們調整後的營業利潤為1.34億美元,較去年同期成長3,100萬美元,增幅達30%。這使得調整後的營業利益率提高了40個基點。第三,今年迄今的自由現金流高於去年同期。第二季的自由現金流為4,100萬美元,而今年迄今的自由現金流為8,400萬美元。從今年迄今的數據來看,這比2020年上半年增加了超過2.25億美元。

  • Fourth, we are dealing with supply chain issues and inflation issues. We encountered supply chain challenges in Q2 and experienced commodity and freight inflation. As Dave mentioned, we made spot buys so that we can meet the delivery commitments to serve our customers and we've implemented strategies to recapture cost. Pricing always lags cost by a quarter or 2, and that's exactly what we're seeing now. I have a slide coming up with more details on this.

    第四,我們正面臨供應鏈和通膨問題。第二季我們遭遇了供應鏈挑戰,並經歷了商品和運費上漲。正如戴夫所提到的,我們進行了現貨採購,以確保能夠履行對客戶的交付承諾,並且我們已經實施了相關策略來降低成本。定價總是比成本落後一到兩個季度,而這正是我們目前所看到的。我稍後會展示一張幻燈片,其中會更詳細地說明這一點。

  • And finally, the key message, we're raising our 2021 guidance by $100 million in sales and $5 million in adjusted operating profit. This action demonstrates the confidence we have in our end markets and also reflects the priority we're placing on customer pursuit and capture. In addition, we are balancing the timing of incremental pricing coming into the P&L.

    最後,也是最重要的訊息,我們將2021年銷售額預期上調1億美元,調整後營業利潤預期上調500萬美元。此舉反映了我們對終端市場的信心,也反映了我們對客戶拓展和維護的重視。此外,我們也在平衡增量定價計入損益表的時間節點。

  • Turning to Page 4. We've been using this slide each quarter to illustrate what we are seeing in each of our world regions and each of our end markets. As we said before, Red button indicates sluggish performance. The green button indicates strong performance, and the yellow button indicates somewhere in between. For the second quarter in a row, there are no reds.

    翻到第4頁。我們每季都會使用這張投影片來展示我們在全球各個區域和各個終端市場所觀察到的情況。正如我們之前所說,紅色按鈕表示業績疲軟,綠色按鈕表示業績強勁,黃色按鈕表示業績介於兩者之間。連續第二個季度,沒有出現紅色按鈕。

  • Let's take each market. Cloud and hyperscale and our colocation markets remain strong. The demand for digital applications continue to fuel the industry and is driving strong and a growing need for Vertiv products and services. In our enterprise small and medium business market, we continue to see signs of progress as it works to recover from the pandemic. We are experiencing an increase in pipeline and orders. If the current pace of activity continues in this upward trajectory, we will be able to upgrade a few of the markets that are yellow to green on our next call.

    我們逐一分析各個市場。雲端運算、超大規模資料中心和託管市場依然強勁。對數位化應用的需求持續推動著產業發展,並帶動了對Vertiv產品和服務的強勁成長需求。在中小企業市場,我們持續看到其從疫情復甦的跡象。我們的業務拓展和訂單量都在成長。如果目前的成長動能能夠維持下去,我們將在下次電話會議上將部分市場從黃色評級升級為綠色評級。

  • The communication network stayed constant in all regions. 5G deployments and trials are continuing as are the starts and stops of customer deployments. These will provide tailwinds for us over the next few years. In the commercial and industrial market, things remain constant. While this is the smallest slice of our business, the variety of products and services we sell here continues to strengthen. All in all, the end markets we serve have remained steady.

    各地區的通訊網路保持穩定。 5G部署和試驗仍在繼續,客戶部署也時有啟動和停止。這些都將在未來幾年為我們帶來發展動力。在商業和工業市場,情況保持穩定。雖然這部分業務在我們業務中所佔比例最小,但我們在此銷售的產品和服務種類卻在不斷豐富。總而言之,我們服務的終端市場保持穩定。

  • Moving on to Slide 5. I want to provide a little bit of color around demand as we're seeing it and give you a glimpse of 2 of growth investments. As mentioned earlier, overall market demand is strong, as indicated by our order rates and record backlog. This scenario led us to raise our guidance.

    接下來是第五張投影片。我想就我們目前觀察到的需求情況做一些簡要說明,並簡要介紹兩項成長投資。如同先前所提到的,整體市場需求強勁,我們的訂單量和創紀錄的積壓訂單量都印證了這一點。基於此,我們提高了業績預期。

  • Each of our regions saw revenue growth in the second quarter, led by continued strength in the cloud and colocation markets. Our cloud and colocation customers continue to build data centers in an aggressive but balanced fashion, and we continue to partner with them to meet the strong and growing demand. We are receiving every opportunity to capture long-term customer commitments and investing in spot buys, as Dave mentioned, to procure essential product components to take care of the delivery for our customers.

    第二季度,我們所有區域的營收均實現成長,這主要得益於雲端運算和託管市場的持續強勁成長。我們的雲端運算和託管客戶繼續以積極而穩健的方式建立資料中心,我們也將繼續與他們合作,以滿足不斷增長的強勁需求。正如戴夫所提到的,我們正在抓住一切機會爭取客戶的長期承諾,並投資於現貨採購,以採購必要的組件,從而確保為客戶提供服務。

  • Moving to the column on the right and to our growth investments. I want to talk about 2 specific investments. First, our IT channel business; and second, our Vertiv Product Development initiative. For the channel, our channel is growing and is part of our strategy and our growth strategy for our business. We have spent time in listening to our partners.

    接下來,我們來看看右側欄位中的成長投資。我想重點談談兩項投資。首先是我們的IT通路業務;其次是我們的Vertiv產品開發計畫。在通路方面,我們的通路正在發展壯大,並且是我們業務策略和成長策略的重要組成部分。我們花了很多時間傾聽合作夥伴的意見。

  • We fine-tuned our strategy. We've built a new partner portal, developed augmented reality sales tools, added configurators, increased sales support and ramped up our digital presence in a quest to make Vertiv easy for our partners to do business with. These efforts are definitely paying dividends. Existing partnerships are being strengthened. New partnerships are being formed, and all partners are promoting Vertiv. By the numbers, we had a 50% increase in the number of resellers that are actively buying our products since this time last year. Customer base is up over 400% from Q2 of last year.

    我們對戰略進行了優化。我們建立了全新的合作夥伴入口網站,開發了擴增實境銷售工具,新增了配置器,加強了銷售支持,並提升了數位化影響力,力求讓合作夥伴更輕鬆地與Vertiv開展業務。這些努力已初見成效。現有合作夥伴關係得到鞏固,新的合作關係正在建立,所有合作夥伴都在積極推廣Vertiv。數據顯示,與去年同期相比,積極採購我們產品的經銷商數量增加了50%。客戶群較去年第二季成長超過400%。

  • A second example of how one of our growth initiatives is performing can be illustrated with this customer success story. Green Mountain is a European colocation provider. Green Mountain recently selected Vertiv as a supplier for our, as they call it, our cutting-edge technology. A key executive from Green Mountain has gone on to say the sustainability of the product and the suppliers is a key factor when purchasing new equipment. Vertiv technologies are the most efficient I've seen, and this will further improve our overall sustainability.

    我們成長計畫的第二個成功案例可以透過這個客戶成功案例來說明。 Green Mountain 是一家歐洲資料中心託管服務供應商。 Green Mountain 最近選擇 Vertiv 作為其尖端技術的供應商。 Green Mountain 的一位高層表示,產品和供應商的可持續性是採購新設備時的關鍵因素。 Vertiv 的技術是我見過的最高效的,這將進一步提升我們的整體永續性。

  • The investments we are making in our Vertiv Product Development growth initiatives are helping us develop more cutting-edge and energy efficiency technologies for innovation, sustainability and expanding our list of customers. These are just 2 examples that demonstrate the progress we are making as we drive focus, resources on growth and investment areas.

    我們在Vertiv產品開發成長計畫的投資,正幫助我們開發更多尖端節能技術,以實現創新、永續發展並拓展客戶群。以上僅是兩個例子,足以說明我們在集中資源和資源於成​​長和投資領域方面所取得的進展。

  • Moving on to Slide 6. Well, pricing is never easy task, but this market has required it. We are estimating having $65 million of pricing actions for the full year versus 2020. As you can see, though, by the time we get to Q4, we will have pricing that fully offset inflationary costs.

    接下來是第六張投影片。定價從來都不是一件容易的事,但當前的市場狀況迫使我們必須這麼做。我們預計全年需要採取6500萬美元的定價措施,與2020年相比。不過,正如您所看到的,到第四季度,我們的定價策略將能夠完全抵消通膨的影響。

  • Moving to the second column. Inflation is being felt by us in material, freight cost and spot buys. Approximately $60 million in materials, $15 million in freight and $35 million in spot buys. We expect the cost impacts to ramp down in 2022 driving net tailwinds. David will provide additional commentary.

    接下來是第二欄。通貨膨脹正在影響我們的原料、運費和現貨採購成本。其中,原物料成本增加約 6,000 萬美元,運費增加約 1,500 萬美元,現貨採購增加約 3,500 萬美元。我們預計這些成本影響將在 2022 年逐漸減弱,從而帶來淨利好。 David 將提供更多評論。

  • The third column depicts how we expect our contribution margin to evolve over the next 2 quarters. The timing of pricing versus inflation causing a dip in Q2. The pricing actions will accelerate in Q3, driving margin recovery. We anticipate full recovery by Q4 as headwinds stabilize and the pricing plan is fully implemented. And as mentioned, we're expecting a net tailwind in 2022 for this activity. So while we've experienced some short-term cost impacts, pricing is coming and customer investments we are making in are in the short term and will, over the long term, continue to drive shareholder value.

    第三列展示了我們預計未來兩季貢獻毛利率的趨勢。定價策略與通膨的時機衝突導致第二季毛利率出現下滑。第三季定價策略將加速推進,推動毛利率回升。我們預計,隨著不利因素趨於穩定,定價方案全面實施,毛利率將在第四季全面恢復。如前文所述,我們預計2022年該項業務將迎來利好。因此,儘管我們經歷了一些短期成本影響,但定價策略終將奏效,我們對客戶的投資也屬於短期投資,從長遠來看,這些投資將繼續提升股東價值。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to David for a closer look at our Q2 numbers, and we'll come back at the end with some final comments. David?

    接下來,我將把時間交給大衛,讓他更詳細地分析我們第二季的財務數據,最後我們再回來做一些總結。大衛?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Great. Thanks, Rob. Turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our second quarter financial results versus last year. Net sales were up $254 million or 25% and 20% when adjusted for a $50 million foreign exchange tailwind. We continued our strong momentum with second quarter orders, as Rob mentioned, which were up 24% after increasing over 20% in the first quarter.

    太好了,謝謝羅布。請翻到第7頁。這張投影片總結了我們第二季的財務表現與去年同期相比的情況。淨銷售額成長了2.54億美元,增幅達25%;若扣除5,000萬美元的外匯利好因素,則成長了20%。正如羅布所提到的,我們第二季的訂單量延續了強勁的成長勢頭,在第一季成長超過20%之後,第二季又成長了24%。

  • Adjusted operating profit increased $31 million or 30%, primarily driven by the profit flow-through from higher sales. However, as discussed, our contribution margin in the second quarter was negatively influenced by material and freight inflation, which impacted our second quarter P&L in advance of much of the favorable pricing expected to materially benefit the second half of the year. The negative impact of net inflation on contribution margin in the second quarter was approximately $25 million with another $10 million impacting contribution margin driven by the plant inefficiencies driven by the supply chain environment.

    經調整後的營業利潤成長了3,100萬美元,增幅達30%,主要得益於銷售額成長帶來的利潤傳遞。然而,如前文所述,第二季的邊際貢獻受到原物料和運費上漲的負面影響,這導致第二季損益表提前受到影響,而下半年預計將大幅提振業績的有利價格尚未顯現。淨通膨對第二季邊際貢獻的負面影響約為2,500萬美元,另有1,000萬美元的邊際貢獻受到供應鏈環境導致的工廠效率低下的影響。

  • Fixed costs were up $20 million from last year's second quarter, including $30 million from last year's onetime COVID cost actions and $20 million from incremental growth in ER&D investments, both partially offset by continued fixed cost reduction initiatives and an impairment of capitalized software recognized in last year's second quarter.

    固定成本比去年第二季增加了 2,000 萬美元,其中包括去年一次性 COVID 成本措施增加的 3,000 萬美元和研發投資增加的 2,000 萬美元,這兩項增加都被持續的固定成本削減措施和去年第二季確認的資本化軟體減損部分抵銷。

  • Our adjusted earnings per share increased $0.15 to $0.31, primarily on the strength of higher adjusted operating profit and lower interest and income tax expense. Free cash flow was down $20 million from last year's second quarter. But as we discussed in our first quarter conference call, free cash flow in the first quarter was positively impacted by $25 million due to the delay of the cash disbursement at the end of the first quarter as a result of the systems implementation. And of course, this timing also negatively impacted second quarter free cash flow by the same $25 million. Otherwise, free cash flow would have been in line with last year's second quarter.

    經調整後的每股盈餘成長0.15美元至0.31美元,主要得益於經調整後的營業利潤成長以及利息和所得稅支出下降。自由現金流較去年同期下降2000萬美元。但正如我們在第一季財報電話會議上所討論的,由於系統實施導致第一季末現金支付延遲,第一季的自由現金流因此增加了2500萬美元。當然,這項時間安排也對第二季的自由現金流造成了同樣的2500萬美元的負面影響。否則,自由現金流將與去年同期持平。

  • Turning to Page 8. This slide summarizes our second quarter segment results. Net sales in the Americas were up $80 million or 16.5%, driven by strong double-digit growth across all 3 product segments. Net sales in APAC were up $75 million or 23%, with growth across most of the APAC subregions, product segments and market verticals.

    請翻至第8頁。本頁總結了我們第二季的分部業績。美洲地區的淨銷售額成長了8,000萬美元,增幅達16.5%,這主要得益於三大產品板塊均實現了強勁的兩位數成長。亞太地區的淨銷售額成長了7,500萬美元,增幅達23%,亞太地區大部分子區域、產品板塊和垂直市場均實現了成長。

  • Net sales in EMEA were up $99 million or an impressive 50%, 41% organic, predominantly in the critical infrastructure and solutions products segment driven by several larger colocation projects. From a profitability perspective, adjusted operating margin declined in both the Americas and APAC, with both regions negatively impacted by material and freight inflation with Americas disproportionately impacted due to regional differences in commodity markets and higher electronic spot buys to support a larger channel business.

    歐洲、中東和非洲地區的淨銷售額成長了9,900萬美元,增幅高達50%,其中41%為內生成長,主要得益於關鍵基礎設施和解決方案產品板塊,以及多個大型資料中心專案的推動。從獲利能力來看,美洲和亞太地區的調整後營業利潤率均有所下降,這兩個地區均受到原材料和運費上漲的負面影響,其中美洲受到的影響尤為嚴重,原因是該地區大宗商品市場存在差異,且為支持規模更大的渠道業務,該地區增加了電子現貨採購。

  • Adjusted operating profit improved in EMEA despite inflation challenges due to the leverage benefit of lower fixed costs on a significantly higher net sales base. Once again, this demonstrates the margin benefit of maintaining or reducing fixed costs while growing the top line. You may have heard the philosophy of keeping fixed cost constant. So this is once again, a real applicable example of that.

    儘管面臨通膨挑戰,但由於淨銷售額大幅成長,固定成本降低帶來的槓桿效應,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的調整後營業利潤仍有改善。這再次證明了在保持或降低固定成本的同時提升營收能夠帶來利潤率的顯著優勢。您可能聽說過保持固定成本不變的理念,而這正是該理念的一個切實例證。

  • Next turning to Slide 9. This chart bridges second quarter free cash flow from last year. The year-over-year benefit from higher adjusted operating profit and lower cash interest payments was more than offset by several unfavorable variances including $20 million in cash taxes driven by lower estimated payments in last year's second quarter, primarily due to COVID uncertainty.

    接下來請看第9張投影片。這張圖表比較了今年第二季和去年同期的自由現金流。儘管調整後營業利潤成長和現金利息支出減少帶來了同比利好,但一些不利因素抵消了這些利好,其中包括2000萬美元的現金稅款支出,這主要是由於去年第二季度預計稅款支付額較低(主要受新冠疫情不確定性影響)。

  • And we also had an additional $18 million outflow from inventory as we have proactively invested in inventory to satisfy customer demand in this challenging supply chain environment. Despite the unfavorable quarterly year-over-year comparison, year-to-date free cash flow is still $225 million higher than the same period last year. Last on this slide, we ended the second quarter with a record high liquidity of $1.1 billion and a record low net leverage -- net debt leverage ratio of 2.2x.

    此外,由於我們積極投資庫存以滿足客戶在當前充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境下的需求,庫存支出也增加了1800萬美元。儘管季度同比數據不佳,但年初至今的自由現金流仍比去年同期高出2.25億美元。最後,我們第二季末的流動資金達到創紀錄的11億美元,淨槓桿(淨債務槓桿)也創下歷史新低,僅2.2倍。

  • Next turning to Slide 10. This slide summarizes our third quarter financial guidance. We expect first half top line momentum to continue into the third quarter, with net sales up 10% at the midpoint, including a double-digit growth in EMEA and upper single-digit growth in Americas and APAC. So we expect the growth momentum to continue to cross all 3 regions.

    接下來請看第10張投影片。本投影片總結了我們第三季的財務預期。我們預計上半年的營收成長動能將推遲到第三季度,淨銷售額中位數預計將成長10%,其中歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA)將實現兩位數成長,美洲和亞太地區(APAC)將實現接近兩位數成長。因此,我們預計這三大地區的成長動能將持續維持。

  • This sales guidance assumes $25 million year-over-year benefit from pricing. And that's probably a little bit more proportionately directed at the Americas versus the other 2 regions. We guide towards adjusted operating profit of $160 million at the midpoint, up $92 million from last year. But as a reminder, we recognized an $80 million combined charge in last year's third quarter for restructuring and an asset impairment. This adjusted operating profit guidance assumes that the third quarter benefit from pricing does not quite offset the negative impact from inflation. However, we do anticipate a full offset pricing versus inflation in the fourth quarter.

    此次銷售預期假設物價上漲將帶來2,500萬美元的年增率。而且,這部分收益可能更多流向美洲地區,而非其他兩個地區。我們預期調整後營業利潤中位數為1.6億美元,較去年同期成長9,200萬美元。但要注意的是,我們在去年第三季提列了8,000萬美元的重組和資產減損費用。此調整後營業利潤預期假設第三季價格上漲帶來的收益不足以完全抵銷通膨的負面影響。不過,我們預期第四季價格上漲帶來的收益將完全抵銷通膨的影響。

  • Finally, adjusted EPS is expected to increase approximately $0.23 at the midpoint, primarily driven by the $8 million restructuring and asset impairment charge in last year's third quarter as the EPS benefits from incremental volume are offset by headwinds from net price inflation and last year's COVID actions, which were still $10 million in the third quarter of 2020.

    最後,經調整後的每股收益預計將增加約 0.23 美元(中位數),這主要是由於去年第三季度 800 萬美元的重組和資產減值支出,因為銷量增長帶來的每股收益收益被淨價格上漲和去年新冠疫情應對措施帶來的不利影響所抵消,而這些措施在 2020 年第三季度仍然高達 1000 萬美元。

  • Next turning to Slide 11. We summarize our revised full year 2021 financial guidance, including net sales of $5 billion, up 14% from 2020 and $100 million higher than our prior guidance. We are increasing our adjusted operating profit guidance to $600 million, up $5 million from prior guidance. And we will provide some detail of dollar increase on the next slide. We are taking down our full year estimate for adjusted operating margin by approximately 10 basis points at the midpoint. There are several moving pieces to our updated operating profit guidance, which certainly impact operating margin.

    接下來請看第11頁投影片。我們總結了修訂後的2021財年全年財務預期,其中包括淨銷售額50億美元,較2020年增長14%,比之前的預期高出1億美元。我們將調整後的營業利潤預期上調至6億美元,比先前的預期高出500萬美元。下一張投影片將詳細說明具體的美元增幅。我們將全年調整後營業利益率預期中位數下調約10個基點。我們更新後的營業利潤預期受多種因素影響,這些因素無疑會對營業利益率產生影響。

  • Some of these are favorable; some are unfavorable as illustrated on the next slide. But in the macro, the reduction is driven by the additional net inflation and related costs, offset by fixed cost actions we have initiated, including controlling discretionary spending.

    其中一些是有利的,一些則不利,如下一張幻燈片所示。但從宏觀層面來看,降幅主要由額外的淨通膨及相關成本驅動,並被我們已採取的固定成本控制措施所抵消,包括控制可自由支配支出。

  • For the avoidance of any doubt, we are reaffirming our adjusted operating margin targets of 16% in the intermediate term and 20% in the long term. We believe the net inflation headwind is an unfortunate 2021 dynamic due to constrained supply chains coming out of COVID. And we believe the pricing actions we are implementing today will generate a nice tailwind for 2022. And we are certainly incurring costs today to satisfy customer needs currently, and I'm referring to the spot buys and expedited freight, that we consider a long-term investment in our customer relationships, which can be referenced as winning later.

    為避免任何疑慮,我們重申中期調整後營業利潤率目標為16%,長期目標為20%。我們認為,由於新冠疫情後供應鏈受限,淨通膨帶來的不利影響是2021年的一個不利因素。我們相信,我們今天實施的價格策略將為2022年帶來良好的利多。當然,我們目前為了滿足客戶需求而承擔了一定的成本,例如現貨採購和加急貨運,但我們認為這是對客戶關係的長期投資,未來必將帶來成功。

  • Even though it is hypothetical, at least on paper without the $45 million net inflation headwinds, we could be discussing adjusted operating profit in the $645 million range for 2020 as growth remains robust, with net sales now expected to be $225 million at the midpoint higher than our beginning-of-the-year estimates.

    即使這只是假設,至少在紙面上,如果沒有 4500 萬美元的淨通膨不利因素,我們可能會討論 2020 年調整後的營業利潤在 6.45 億美元左右,因為增長依然強勁,淨銷售額的中值預計為 2.25 億美元,高於我們年初的估計。

  • Full year adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.15, $0.04 higher than our prior full year guidance, driven by the $5 million increase in adjusted operating profit, about $0.01, and $11 million lower full year tax expense contributing about $0.03. And that was primarily the result of a discrete tax benefit that we recognized in the second quarter.

    預計全年調整後每股收益為1.15美元,比我們先前的全年預期高出0.04美元,主要得益於調整後營業利潤增加500萬美元(約0.01美元)以及全年稅項支出減少1,100萬美元(約0.03美元)。而稅項支出減少的主要原因是我們在第二季確認了一項一次性稅優惠。

  • Finally, we are maintaining our full year projected free cash flow guidance of $300 million, which is up almost $140 million from full year 2020. We discussed internally whether we should increase our full year free cash flow guidance, but we are holding flat due to uncertainty in the supply chain, we generally realize a really nice cash inflow in the fourth quarter from the reduction of inventory, but we want to wait another quarter to see how that plays out for this year. With that said, we do like the upper end of the range of our $290 million to $310 million free cash flow full year guidance.

    最後,我們維持全年自由現金流預期為3億美元,較2020年全年增長近1.4億美元。我們內部討論過是否應該提高全年自由現金流預期,但由於供應鏈的不確定性,我們決定維持不變。通常情況下,我們會在第四季度因庫存減少而獲得可觀的現金流入,但我們希望再觀察一個季度,看看今年的情況如何。儘管如此,我們仍然看好全年自由現金流預期區間2.9億美元至3.1億美元的上限。

  • Next, turning to Slide 12. This chart bridges our full year adjusted operating profit from prior guidance of $5 million increase. On the prior slide, we noted a $100 million net sales increase. The components of this increase include $40 million of pricing mostly in the second half, $15 million of foreign exchange translation almost entirely in the second quarter and $45 million of volume with $35 million of that in the second quarter and $10 million in the second half. The $40 million of pricing is depicted in the first green bar.

    接下來,請看第12張投影片。這張圖表顯示了我們全年調整後營業利潤與先前預期500萬美元成長的比較情況。在前一張投影片中,我們提到淨銷售額成長了1億美元。這一增長的組成包括:主要在下半年實現的4000萬美元價格上漲;幾乎全部在第二季度實現的1500萬美元外匯折算;以及4500萬美元的銷量增長,其中3500萬美元在第二季度,1000萬美元在下半年。 4000萬美元的價格上漲體現在第一個綠色長條圖中。

  • The second green bar reflects the benefits of various fixed cost reduction actions we implemented in the second quarter, including controlling discretionary spending, and this should benefit the remainder of 2021. The third green bar reflects the expected flow-through from the $40 million to $45 million incremental organic volume.

    第二條綠色長條圖反映了我們在第二季度實施的各項固定成本削減措施(包括控制可自由支配支出)帶來的效益,這將使 2021 年剩餘時間受益。第三條綠色長條圖反映了 4,000 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元新增有機銷售額帶來的預期收益。

  • The 2 largest red bars on this page reflect our updated views on the impact of supply chain challenges in 2021. This represents combined about $65 million of higher cost compared to our previous guidance with an incremental $20 million realized in the second quarter and $45 million added to the second half. Finally, on this slide, the last red bar on the right reflects expected headwinds from our prior guidance related to timing delays in productivity, both in purchasing and in the plant as a result of the current supply chain environment.

    本頁上最大的兩條紅色長條圖反映了我們對2021年供應鏈挑戰影響的最新看法。與先前的預期相比,這兩個長條圖合計代表成本增加約6,500萬美元,其中第二季新增2,000萬美元,下半年新增4,500萬美元。最後,本頁右側的最後一條紅色長條圖反映了由於當前供應鏈環境的影響,採購和工廠生產效率均出現延遲,導致我們先前預期的受到不利因素的影響。

  • With that said, I turn it back over to Rob. Rob?

    說完這些,我把麥克風交還給羅布。羅布?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, David. Turning to Slide 13, which is our last slide, recap the key messages for the quarter. As I close, I want you to know how proud I am with the Vertiv team and what we're doing together as a one Vertiv company. We've accomplished a great first half of the year. The results we've shared today reflect the hard work and commitment of the 20,000 employees, some in the factories, some in the field and some in the offices and some still working remotely in over 130 countries around the world.

    謝謝,大衛。接下來請看第13張投影片,也是最後一張投影片,回顧本季的主要資訊。最後,我想讓大家知道,我為Vertiv團隊以及我們作為一個Vertiv公司共同取得的成就感到無比自豪。我們上半年取得了巨大的成功。今天分享的成果體現了我們2萬名員工的辛勤付出和敬業精神,他們有的在工廠,有的在現場,有的在辦公室,還有的仍在遍布全球130多個國家和地區的遠程辦公。

  • As I look at the remaining months of 2021 and as we continue to invest strategically, I'm confident that we'll see above-market top line growth and increase in profitability and a strengthening balance sheet. When I look down the road at 2022 and beyond, my confidence is bolstered by the conversations that I've had personally with partners and key customers about the demand, pricing and pipeline.

    展望2021年剩餘的幾個月,隨著我們繼續進行策略性投資,我相信我們將實現高於市場平均的營收成長、獲利能力提升以及資產負債表的持續穩健。展望2022年及以後的發展,我與合作夥伴和重要客戶就市場需求、定價和銷售管道進行的深入交流,更加堅定了我的信心。

  • To all employees, I'm grateful for the part you've played in the past 3 months and have allowed me to provide today's earnings report. Thank you for your dedication and your tireless effort to take care of our customers. To our investors, thank you for being on the call today and for your trust and support in Vertiv. It is truly my pleasure to be leading Vertiv.

    致全體員工:感謝你們過去三個月來的辛勤付出,讓我能夠順利發布今天的財報。感謝你們的奉獻和不懈努力,為我們的客戶提供優質服務。致各位投資人:感謝你們今天參加電話會議,感謝你們對Vertiv的信任與支持。能夠領導Vertiv,我深感榮幸。

  • I will now turn the call over to the operator who will open up the line for questions.

    現在我將把電話轉接給接線員,由他/她接通線路回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

    (操作說明)第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So surprise, surprise, a question on price. So the $65 million, how do we interpret that? Are these actions already made to the customers? And Obviously, there's an assumption about how much fixed and how much is given away in, I don't know, concessions, et cetera. Is this $65 million sort of like what's been actioned and what we hope to get? Or is this a conservative view on sort of how much of this price mix? And then maybe just talk about Americas versus APAC and EMEA.

    所以,不出所料,又是一個關於價格的問題。這6500萬美元,我們該如何解讀?這些措施已經落實到客戶身上了嗎?顯然,這裡存在一個假設,即有多少是固定成本,又有多少是以讓步等形式做出的。這6500萬美元是已經落實的措施,也是我們希望達到的目標嗎?還是說,這只是對價格構成的保守估計?接下來,或許可以談談美洲、亞太和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的情況。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Nigel, thanks for your question. This is Rob. I'll start off and then let Gary and David weigh in. Pricing actions were actually underway at the beginning of Q2 as we begin to see this inflationary environment. As you know, we feed a lot off of our backlog. And some of those things in our backlog, we can look at price, we can look at freight. But for the most part, as we've indicated on the call, you'll see that really kind of come to life in Q3 and Q4. So we know orders that we got in Q2 that we'll ship in Q3, Q4, Q1, we know we got price on those. So that's why we feel confident that we will get the price and we are getting the price. So that's the first thing.

    好的。 Nigel,謝謝你的提問。我是Rob。我先來,然後請Gary和David補充。實際上,隨著通膨環境的加劇,我們在第二季初就開始採取定價措施了。如你所知,我們的大部分業務都依賴積壓訂單。對於積壓訂單中的一些項目,我們可以考慮價格和運費。但正如我們在電話會議上提到的,大部分情況會在第三季和第四季真正顯現出來。我們知道第二季收到的訂單將在第三季、第四季和第一季出貨,我們已經確定了這些訂單的價格。因此,我們有信心能夠獲得理想的價格,而我們也確實做到了。這是第一點。

  • The same thing we've done which has been talked about widely with industrials is the ability to get price in the channel and distribution. That's a much faster lever from that perspective. But for us, as a company compared to other industrials, we're a smaller player in that, but that's an area that we're growing fast.

    我們所做的,也是工業企業普遍討論過的,就是在通路和分銷方面爭取價格優勢。從這個角度來看,這是一個更快的槓桿。但就我們公司而言,與其他工業企業相比,我們在這一領域的規模較小,不過我們正在快速發展這一領域。

  • So we have taken pricing actions in some cases, 3 times within that space that will -- we've seen stick, and we've seen our order growth rates, as you can see in our channels beginning to grow at the pace that we've talked about in the past. We expect to continue to take share in that space while we continue to raise price and drive that. I don't know, any other comments, Gary or David?

    所以,在某些情況下,我們已經採取了三次價格調整措施,而這些措施都奏效了。正如您所看到的,我們的通路訂單成長率開始以我們之前提到的速度成長。我們預計在繼續提價並推動成長的同時,將繼續擴大市場份額。 Gary 或 David,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. Nigel, Gary here. I think Rob hit the nail on the head. The only 2 other parts I'd add to your question are we do think most of the pricing that we're going to get right now is sticky. It's not going to be 100%, but the majority of that pricing should be sticky as we head into 2022. And as Rob mentioned in his opening comments, that should provide some tailwind for us throughout that next year.

    是的。我是Nigel,Gary。我覺得Rob說得非常到位。關於你的問題,我只想補充兩點:我們認為目前大部分的定價都是相對穩定。雖然不會完全如此,但到了2022年,大部分定價應該會維持不變。正如Rob在開場白中提到的,這應該會在未來一年為我們帶來一些利好因素。

  • And then secondly, regional breakdown, I think the other part of your question was. There's a good chunk of this pricing, the majority of it that sits in Americas. So we're taking actions in all 3 regions. But just to your regional mix question, there certainly is a majority of the pricing that's going to happen in the Americas as well.

    其次,關於區域細分,我想這也是你問題的另一部分。這些定價策略中有很大一部分,大部分都集中在美洲。所以我們正在所有三個地區採取相應措施。但就你提出的區域構成問題而言,美洲地區也確實佔據了大部分定價策略的主導地位。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • That's great. And then a quick one on your comments on 2022. Obviously, we're a little bit early to start talking about 2022. But the tailwind that you alluded to, is it really more a case of the spot purchases and the export of freight going away so we get that $35 million tailwind? Or do you see other benefits next year?

    太好了。接下來我想快速問一下您對2022年的看法。顯然,現在談2022年還為時過早。但您提到的順風,真的只是現貨採購和貨運出口的減少,從而帶來3500萬美元的順風嗎?還是您認為明年還有其他利多因素?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • I think we see that as well as we see continued -- the pricing that we're getting now for stuff that's going to be rolling out in 2022. And my comments earlier, Nigel, as well fairly bullish on 2022 just based on pipeline based on what we're seeing. I spend a lot of time with our customers understanding. And we get a question asked very frequently, is this typically a build and fill, build and fill. And what we're all seeing right now is a continued build and build responsibly. The fill rates are quite high. So it gives us great confidence that we would expect to have a really good 2022.

    我認為我們看到,目前針對2022年即將推出的產品的定價策略將會持續下去。正如我之前提到的,Nigel,基於我們目前看到的銷售管道情況,我對2022年的前景相當樂觀。我花了很多時間與客戶溝通,了解他們的需求。我們常被問到,目前的銷售模式是否通常是「建廠建貨,然後迅速售罄」。而我們現在看到的是持續且負責任的建設。售罄率相當高。因此,我們非常有信心,2022年將會是一個非常好的年份。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

    下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Just to pick up a little bit more on price, I fully understand kind of the carryover impact you'd be expecting based on how you think you'll exit the year. Just wonder what the behavior is, though, if we get some deflation. Is it -- has it been your experience that you can hold pricing in a modest deflationary period of time? I would assume that price comes down at lag, so you probably get some benefit from there. But just wondering about kind of the overall stickiness and as they reach kind of the new higher level on pricing.

    關於價格方面,我再補充一點。我完全理解您根據對年底走勢的預期所預期的延續性影響。但我只是好奇,如果出現通貨緊縮,價格走勢會如何?根據您的經驗,在輕微的通貨緊縮時期,價格是否能夠維持在合理水平?我假設價格會滯後下降,所以您可能會從中受益。但我只是想了解價格的整體黏性,以及當價格達到新的高點時的情況。

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. Good question, Jeff. It's Gary again. So I would say that just like you're right on the way up on the inflationary, it takes a couple of quarters. And if there's a deflationary environment, it would certainly take a couple of quarters to lag on the way down. But with that said, most of the actions we have implemented, we do believe are going to be pretty sticky. I mean there's a couple of onetime type things or things that probably aren't going to carry into 2022.

    是的,問得好,傑夫。我是加里。我想說的是,就像你剛才說的,通膨正在上升,這需要幾個季度的時間。如果是通縮環境,通縮回落也肯定需要幾個季度的時間。但即便如此,我們相信我們已經實施的大部分措施都會持續有效。我的意思是,當然也有一些一次性措施,或者有些措施可能不會延續到2022年。

  • But for the most part, the actions we are taking are really around list prices and multipliers and discounts. And those things in our environment tend to stick around more often than not. And the other reason we feel pretty good about that is just going back to what we were able to do in '19 and '20 with pricing, both in the $20 million-ish range. That should be sort of the lowest watermark as we think about anything in a normalized state. So overall, feel pretty good about where we sit for pricing as we go into '22.

    但總的來說,我們採取的措施主要圍繞著標價、乘數和折扣。而這些因素在我們的市場環境中往往較為穩定。我們對此感到樂觀的另一個原因是,我們回顧了2019年和2020年在定價方面取得的成就,這兩個年份的銷售額都在2,000萬美元左右。當我們考慮正常市場狀況時,這應該算是最低限度了。所以總的來說,我們對2022年的定價策略相當滿意。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • And then just on the fixed cost effort, the $30 million you've shown us here in the bridge, would this represent, I guess, maybe for a lack of a better phase, kind of an acceleration of what you were doing on this journey to get to 16%? Or is there some temporary actions here that have to (technical difficulty) way? Maybe you could just give us a little bit more context on the self-help levers that you're using, a, to try to combat inflation; and b, against the higher margin rate.

    那麼,就固定成本方面而言,您在橋段中展示的3000萬美元,是否意味著,或許可以這樣理解,您為了實現16%的目標而採取的某種加速措施?或者,這其中是否包含一些暫時性的措施? (技術難題)您能否進一步介紹您正在採取的自助措施,例如:a)應對通貨膨脹;b)應對更高的利潤率。

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. I think it's a combination of the 2, Jeff, meaning some is related to an acceleration of some of the cost actions that we planned at the beginning of the year. The others, it's hard to call them temporary because they're related to assumption with COVID opening up. So in our beginning of the year guidance, we anticipated that the world was going to open up in 2Q with travel and other discretionary costs, that's probably getting pushed out to the third or fourth quarter.

    是的。我認為這是兩者的綜合作用,傑夫。一方面,部分原因是年初我們計劃的一些成本控制措施加速實施;另一方面,很難說是暫時的,因為它們與疫情後經濟復甦的預期有關。我們在年初的業績指引中預計,隨著旅行和其他可自由支配支出在第二季回升,這種情況可能會推遲到第三季或第四季。

  • So we're certainly going to benefit from lower discretionary costs there. But we've been able to accelerate some of the other fixed cost reductions. It's hard to quantify how much of that $30 million is going to carry over. If I were to pick a proportion, it's probably 50-50. There's probably 50% temporary, and there's probably 50% that is an acceleration of permanent things that we had in the hopper anyhow.

    因此,我們肯定會受益於可自由支配成本的降低。但我們也加快了一些其他固定成本削減的腳步。很難量化這3000萬美元中有多少會結轉到下一年。如果要估算一個比例,大概是五五開。其中大約50%可能是暫時的,另外50%可能是我們原本就在籌劃的永久性專案加速推進的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

  • David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

    David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

  • This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. What's the size of shipments you couldn't make in the second quarter due to the supply chain issues? Or said differently, what portion of that sequential growth you had in your backlog is due to supply chain issues?

    這裡是David Ridley-Lane,代Andrew Obin提問。由於供應鏈問題,您第二季未能完成的訂單量是多少?或者換句話說,您積壓訂單的環比增長中,有多少是由於供應鏈問題造成的?

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. So I think very clearly, the costs are much easier to quantify than hypothetical lost sales. With that said, it certainly is greater than 0. The way I think is the best way to understand it is if you look at the second half of the year, what we have built into our guidance is probably somewhat conservative based on what we're anticipating as continued supply chain constraints. And that could amount to anywhere between 200 to 300 basis points of growth in the back half of the year that we believe could be constrained because of the availability of parts.

    是的。所以我認為,很明顯,成本比假設的銷售損失更容易量化。話雖如此,它肯定大於零。我認為理解這一點的最佳方式是,如果你看看下半年,我們基於對持續供應鏈限制的預期,在業績指引中設定的數值可能略顯保守。這可能導致下半年成長200到300個基點,我們認為由於零件供應問題,這一增長可能會受到限制。

  • So if you were to dollarize that, that's in the tens of millions of dollars. So it certainly isn't insignificant. I think we've gotten some feedback that there's a belief that our top line guide in the second half is somewhat conservative. And it could be built-in provision for what we think is a realistic scenario as it relates to being able to obtain parts.

    如果換算成美元,那就是數千萬美元。所以這筆錢絕對不容小覷。我們收到一些回饋,認為我們下半年的營收預期可能有些保守。這可能是我們為應對零件供應方面可能出現的實際情況而預留的準備金。

  • David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

    David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

  • Got it. And are you hearing that competitors are having sort of similar issues with -- in terms of on-time delivery and parts availability?

    明白了。您是否聽說競爭對手在交貨準時性和零件供應方面也遇到了類似的問題?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Yes. David, Rob Johnson here. Absolutely. And it's not just our equipment. It's across the board, whether it's steel, plastics for the construction of the building. It's really hit everybody. So I would say, in general, we're seeing lead times, for example, on things like generators and stuff that we don't sell, but go -- moving out. And it's happening pretty much to everybody. We're trying to all get after some of the same parts, whether it's fans or lithium-ion or discrete electrical components, yes, it's pretty much across the board for everyone.

    是的。我是羅伯約翰遜,大衛。沒錯。而且不僅僅是我們的設備。所有行業都受到了影響,無論是建築用的鋼材還是塑膠。幾乎所有人都受到了波及。所以總的來說,我們看到交貨週期延長了,像是發電機之類的東西,這些東西我們並不銷售,但卻需要搬遷。這種情況幾乎發生在所有人身上。我們都在努力尋找相同的零件,無論是風扇、鋰離子電池還是分立電子元件,是的,這種情況幾乎影響到所有人。

  • David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

    David Emerson Ridley-Lane - VP

  • Got it. And then I know this might be a little tough to answer, but sort of what's the status quo price-cost benefit you would receive in 2022, if you just assume fourth quarter pricing actions hold for that year and material and freight cost hold for the year at sort of fourth quarter levels?

    明白了。我知道這個問題可能有點難回答,但假設2022年全年都維持第四季度的價格策略,並且原材料和運費成本也保持在第四季度的水平,那麼在2022年,您能獲得怎樣的價格成本收益?

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. I think a fairly rudimentary way to look at this. If you look at Slide 6, you see the pricing bars on the left and the material freight inflation on the right. Effectively, the white space above each of those quarterly bars would be the opportunity -- the upside opportunity from pricing. And the down potential detriment from material and freight inflation, predominantly the white space in that first quarter chart.

    是的。我認為可以採用一種比較簡單的方法來看待這個問題。如果你看投影片 6,你會看到左邊是價格長條圖,右邊是原物料運費通膨率。實際上,每個季度長條圖上方的空白區域就代表了機會——價格上漲帶來的機會。而原物料和運費通膨帶來的潛在下行風險,主要體現在第一季圖表的空白區域。

  • So definitely, there's a tailwind from pricing. Don't necessarily want to quantify it for all the reasons we discussed. We're not 100% sure that it will all stick. The one thing that is clear from that chart is if -- what we're seeing in the Q4 for both price and inflation continues into next year, we certainly should see a net tailwind, part of it because of the overlap of timing, the cost certainly hit us sooner this year than the benefit of pricing.

    所以,價格上漲確實帶來了利多。但基於我們之前討論過的原因,我們並不想量化這種利好。我們也不能百分之百確定這種利好會持續下去。從圖表中可以明顯看出,如果第四季的價格和通膨趨勢延續到明年,我們肯定會看到淨利好,部分原因是時間上的重疊——成本的影響肯定比價格上漲帶來的收益來得更早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

    下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • At risk of asking a stupid question, can you give us a sense of kind of the spot buys are most -- where you guys are most aggressive, what kind of bill of materials?

    冒昧問一句,你們能否大致介紹一下現貨採購的主要方式──你們最積極採購的領域,以及你們的物料清單類型?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • It's kind of a combination, certainly electronic components when we can get those. In the past, it's been things like IGBTs, certainly lithium-ion batteries have driven that and kind of a combination of areas around -- really focus there. Fans, I guess I would say, go into that category as well. So yes, that's -- and then there's -- included in some of the spot buys is, for example, the channel. We know that if we don't have the product, we lose the order, it goes to somebody else. So we've had to do some expediting and spot buys in there for certain components for our channel products, our single-phase UPSs, our rack-mount PDUs, those types of things.

    這其實是一種組合,當然,電子元件是我們能拿到貨的時候的主要需求。過去,像IGBT之類的元件,當然還有鋰離子電池,它們推動了這一趨勢,以及圍繞這些領域的其他一些產品——我們確實非常關注這些領域。風扇,我想也應該算在這個範疇。所以,是的,這——然後——一些現貨採購也包括,例如通路產品。我們知道,如果我們沒有產品,訂單就會遺失,它會落在別人手中。因此,我們必須為通路產品,例如單相UPS、機架式PDU之類的產品,進行一些加急採購和現貨採購。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Yes, that makes sense. And in that context, when you think about some of the -- I mean, obviously, your main markets are fairly consolidated, but you do have some peripheral players here and there. I mean, I would think some of those guys might be suffering right now and perhaps lower down on the list of being able to get materials and things like that. Is there an opportunity right now on the M&A side to kind of participate in kind of another level of consolidation for some of the smaller suppliers around the peripheral, just that may be suffering a bit right now? Does that make sense?

    是的,這很有道理。在這種情況下,想想看——我的意思是,顯然,你們的主要市場已經相當集中,但還有一些零星的供應商。我想,其中一些供應商現在可能正面臨困境,在原料供應等方面可能會比較吃力。那麼,現在在併購方面是否存在機會,參與一些小型供應商的整合中,幫助他們擺脫困境呢?這樣說您明白嗎?

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. Scott, Gary. I think your logic flow is very just that logical. I would say that we're being pretty measured still in the M&A philosophy to say we want anything we do to go back to the 4 key tenets that we've talked about of why we'd want to acquire a company. There are some people that have reached out to us and said, this has been a difficult time, we want to partner with you. Yes, there's been a few more probably inbound calls.

    是的,斯科特,加里。我認為你們的邏輯思路非常清晰。我想說,我們在併購理念上仍然相當謹慎,我們希望所有行動都回歸到我們之前討論過的收購目標的四個關鍵原則。有些人聯絡我們說,這段時間很艱難,他們想和我們合作。是的,我們可能接到了一些額外的諮詢電話。

  • But I think from our standpoint, we really still stick to the 4 key strategic tenants of why we want to acquire a company. If one of those companies have to be struggling, great, certainly an opportunity there, but we're going to stay pretty true to the types of companies we want to buy, not just because they may be struggling in this environment.

    但我認為,從我們的角度來看,我們仍然堅持收購公司的四大關鍵策略原則。如果其中一家公司正處於困境,那當然很好,這絕對是一個機會,但我們仍然會堅持我們想要收購的公司類型,而不僅僅是因為它們在當前的環境下可能面臨困境。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask my first one, a follow-up on Nigel's question earlier. So understanding that the majority of the pricing actions are benefiting the Americas, I assume, is that also the case for the inflation predominantly impacting Americas? And maybe as part of the answer to that question, if you want to give any color around what you're thinking for margin trajectory in the 3Q guidance, that would also be helpful.

    我首先想問一個問題,算是對Nigel之前問題的後續。既然您認為大部分定價措施都有利於美洲地區,那麼通膨也主要影響美洲地區嗎?另外,如果您能就第三季利潤率預期做出一些說明,那就更好了。

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Got it. So Nicole, this is David. The one thing that we certainly have learned through the 2021 environment is that the supply chains are regional. So the impact of one region is certainly different than the impact in other regions. And we certainly can probably have a conversation on the drivers of that dynamic.

    明白了。妮可,我是大衛。我們在2021年的情勢中確實學到了一點,那就是供應鏈具有地域性。因此,一個地區的影響肯定與其他地區的影響不同。我們或許可以就這種動態變化背後的驅動因素展開討論。

  • But at the end of the day, what we're seeing is if you look at both the cost impact, inflation and spot buy and also the response for pricing, about 60% of what we're seeing is in the Americas. And the remainder fairly equally split between the other 2 regions. But just to understand the disproportionality there, Americas is about 45% of our company, but it's seen 60% of the impact of inflation. And of course, our pricing response there is stronger as well.

    但歸根結底,如果我們綜合考慮成本影響、通貨膨脹、現貨採購以及價格應對措施,就會發現大約 60% 的影響都集中在美洲地區。其餘部分則大致平均分配在其他兩個地區。為了更好地理解這種不平衡,需要指出的是,美洲地區僅占我們公司總業務的 45% 左右,卻承受了 60% 的通膨影響。當然,我們在美洲地區的定價因應也更為強勁。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And anything on just margins in the back half or in the third quarter by segment? Or is it just Americas probably looking the worst and then EMEA and APAC a little bit better on a year-on-year basis?

    好的,明白了。那麼,關於下半年或第三季各業務板塊的利潤率,有什麼數據嗎?還是說美洲地區的業績可能最差,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區年比情況會略好?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • That's certainly the case. The Americas -- depends if you look at it versus prior year versus your prior guidance, but the incremental cost that we included in the back half of the year are definitely proportionate to the Americas. If I'm remodeling, I would certainly model the Americas down. But with that said, for avoidance of doubt, the net inflation certainly impacts all 3 regions when you get down to the adjusted operating profit line item.

    確實如此。美洲地區的情況——取決於你如何看待它與上年同期以及你之前的預測,但我們在下半年計入的增量成本肯定與美洲地區成正比。如果我要重新調整模型,我肯定會降低美洲地區的成本。但即便如此,為了避免任何誤解,當你計算調整後的營業利潤時,淨通膨肯定會對所有三個地區都產生影響。

  • The other 2 regions, notably EMEA, probably is relatively flat in part because some of the volume increase that we included in the guidance is probably disproportionate to EMEA as well. So that certainly helps from a fixed cost leverage. But all other things being equal, it certainly is disproportionate to the Americas.

    另外兩個地區,尤其是歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA),成長相對平穩,部分原因是我們在業績指引中納入的部分銷售成長可能對EMEA地區而言並不成比例。因此,這無疑有助於降低固定成本。但其他條件相同的情況下,EMEA地區的成長與美洲地區相比明顯不成比例。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. That's really helpful. And then I guess on mix, I mean, obviously, price cost is kind of overshadowing other impacts to margins right now. But is there anything on mix that we should be thinking about in the second half as maybe service ramps or other dynamics?

    好的,明白了,這很有幫助。關於產品組合,很明顯,目前價格成本對利潤率的影響很大,其他因素的影響都被掩蓋了。但是,在下半年,我們是否應該考慮產品組合方面的其他因素,例如服務提升或其他動態變化?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • No. We have a little bit of a mix dynamic for the full year related to higher growth in the critical infrastructure and solutions segments, and you can see that certainly on a year-to-date basis. We don't think there is anything significantly different that we'll see in the second half that we have not seen in the first half from a mix perspective.

    不。全年來看,由於關鍵基礎設施和解決方案領域的成長較為強勁,我們的業務組成略有變化,這一點從年初至今的數據中可以明顯看出。我們認為,從業務組成來看,下半年不會有上半年沒有的顯著變化。

  • But certainly, the growth in that CI&S is expected to be a little bit higher than the 2 product segments. From a regional perspective, because the growth -- the sales growth we're seeing is in disproportionate to EMEA and EMEA's contribution margins are fairly close to the Americas, so we're not necessarily seeing a negative regional mix. So what we would see from a mix perspective certainly would be from a product perspective.

    但可以肯定的是,CI&S 的成長預計會略高於另外兩個產品板塊。從區域角度來看,由於我們看到的銷售成長與 EMEA 地區不成比例,而 EMEA 地區的貢獻毛利率與美洲地區相當接近,因此我們不一定看到區域組合出現負面影響。所以,從組合角度來看,我們真正關注的肯定是產品方面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • Just wondering if you could talk more about your expectation on supply chain costs and component availability going forward. And any outlook you may have as to when the cost pressures and supply tightness may begin to alleviate? Related to that, if cost does go up again in the fourth quarter, do you think your outlook that you can offset this cost inflation with pricing? Would that still hold to the extent pricing continued to go up in 4Q?

    我想請您詳細談談您對未來供應鏈成本和零件供應的預期。您認為成本壓力和供應緊張何時才能開始緩解?另外,如果第四季成本再次上漲,您認為可以透過價格調整來抵銷成本上漲的影響嗎?如果第四季價格持續上漲,這種預期是否仍然成立?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Mark. I'll start off and then David, any comments there. But I would say, in general, we think things have leveled out as it relates to the cost. But again, it's always a supply and demand thing, and we'll continue to watch that. And if they continue to creep up, then we're going to have to crack prices up and continue to do that. So we use that lever to be fair to our customers, though, we're looking to cover our cost in this environment.

    謝謝,馬克。我先說,然後大衛,你有什麼要補充的嗎?總的來說,我們認為成本方面的情況已經趨於穩定。但話說回來,這始終是供需關係的問題,我們會繼續關注。如果成本繼續上漲,我們就不得不提高價格,而且會一直這樣做。所以,我們會利用這個手段來公平對待我們的客戶,但同時,我們也希望在這種環境下能夠涵蓋成本。

  • As far as the easing of supply, it's going to be a combination of things that are happening. Certainly, chip fabs, we're in touch with some of the largest ones that we use to understand when they get additional capacity come on. And at the end of this year, there's some capacity and then towards the middle of 2022.

    至於供應緩解,這將是多種因素共同作用的結果。當然,晶片製造廠方面,我們與一些最大的晶片製造廠保持聯繫,以便了解他們何時能增加產能。今年年底會有一些產能釋放,然後到2022年中也會有更多產能釋放。

  • So once that capacity comes online, we'll feel better about the overall components chip level anyway. We do know that whether it's fans or even lithium-ion, additional capacity is being brought online and gives us comfort in the future that we'll be able to see some of those constraints ease as well. That being said, our supply chain team has been very proactive in negotiating longer-term supply agreements, making commitments for supply longer than we normally would to be able to assure our supply as we get into 2022.

    因此,一旦這些產能上線,我們對晶片層面的整體組件供應情況就會更有信心。我們知道,無論是風扇或鋰離子電池,新增產能都在陸續投產,讓我們對未來充滿信心,相信一些供應瓶頸也會減輕。即便如此,我們的供應鏈團隊也一直積極主動地協商長期供應協議,做出比以往更長的供貨承諾,以確保我們在2022年能夠獲得穩定的供應。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful. And for my second question, I was hoping to better understand the order growth of some of the components behind that. I believe the company said more than 20% order growth for 2 quarters in a row now. Maybe you could help break that down a little bit further in terms of how much is coming from growth and demand? How much is perhaps share gain? And then is there potentially a piece of this that is customers placing orders sooner than they normally would, given some of the global supply chain challenges?

    這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是,我希望能更深入地了解訂單成長背後的一些因素。我記得公司已經連續兩季實現了超過20%的訂單成長。您能否進一步分析一下,其中有多少成長來自於業務成長和需求?有多少來自市場佔有率的提升?此外,考慮到全球供應鏈面臨的一些挑戰,客戶是否可能比平常更早下單?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Mark, this is Rob again. I'll start, and then Gary will come in over the top. A couple of things that we believe the dynamics are happening here. Our plan is working, and our plan was to gain share in the colo and hyperscale space and traditionally against probably local companies that you wouldn't be aware of in various parts of the region.

    馬克,我是羅布。我先來,然後加里會接著說。我們認為目前的情況有幾點值得關注。我們的計劃正在奏效,我們的計劃是搶佔託管和超大規模資料中心的市場份額,而傳統上,我們的競爭對手可能是一些你可能不太熟悉的、分佈在該地區各地的本地公司。

  • We've been executing quite well there and seeing those orders flip in our direction. So part of our growth is just, hey, we're taking (inaudible) some share in the smaller, more regional-based companies that you would recognize. I would say that, again, kind of similar thing in the channel. We've posted up some nice growth (inaudible) channel with our various new innovative products finding that we need to take some share there as well, and we get data on that on a monthly basis on how we're doing. So we feel good about that.

    我們在那裡的執行情況相當不錯,訂單也開始轉向我們這邊。所以,我們成長的一部分原因在於,我們正在從一些規模較小、更具區域性的公司(你可能聽說過)那裡搶佔一些市場份額。我想說,通路方面的情況也類似。我們憑藉各種創新產品在通路方面取得了不錯的成長,我們發現也需要在那裡搶佔一些市場份額,而且我們每月都會收到相關數據,了解我們的業績表現。所以我們對此感到滿意。

  • What we will see, I think, and saw a little bit of going forward is people wanting to get their slotting for 2022 to assure supply because everyone is experiencing the lack of supply customer wise. So I think we'll see an acceleration of people putting just like we have on our supply base, longer-term orders in place fixed and firm in order to be able to ensure that they can get their product when they need it. I don't know, any other thoughts, Gary?

    我認為,未來我們會看到(而且也已經看到了一些跡象),人們會希望提前預定2022年的訂單以確保供應,因為目前所有客戶都面臨著供應短缺的問題。所以我認為,我們會看到人們像我們供應商一樣,加快簽訂長期固定訂單的步伐,以確保在需要時能夠拿到產品。加里,你還有什麼想法嗎?

  • Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

    Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer

  • Yes. No, I think, Mark, I think, Rob nailed it spot on. And we definitely continue to see the (technical difficulty). I would say that 20% of the first half growth, there's probably a pretty good chance that the market hasn't grown anywhere near that.

    是的。不,我覺得,馬克,我覺得,羅布說得完全正確。我們確實繼續看到(技術難題)。我認為,上半年成長的20%,很可能市場實際成長遠未達到這個水準。

  • And so I think with the latest updated guide even for the full year, we're at, what, close to 13%, 14% organic. And I think our best estimates right now is the market is probably growing maybe upper single digits, still a little fuzzy to tell exactly, but I think clearly, there's great momentum, not only there's good market -- there's good market demand right now. And there's also a really good penetration happening by our sales and marketing and product development teams.

    所以我覺得,根據最新的全年業績指南,我們的有機成長率大概在13%到14%之間。目前我們的最佳估計是,市場成長率可能在個位數以上,雖然具體數字還不太確定,但很明顯,市場勢頭強勁,不僅市場前景良好,而且市場需求也很旺盛。此外,我們的銷售、行銷和產品開發團隊也獲得了非常好的市場滲透效果。

  • And Mark, one other thing to add there that I'm super excited about, David kind of mentioned that our investments are paying off in our VPDs. And an example of that is our -- one of our large cooling units that doesn't use water, innovative technology. In this area, we've been displacing other traditional technologies, maybe water cooled systems in that space.

    馬克,還有一點我特別興奮,想補充一下。大衛剛才提到,我們在VPD(變頻多聯機)的投資正在發揮成效。舉個例子,我們有一個大型冷卻裝置,它不使用水,採用了創新技術。在這個領域,我們已經取代了其他傳統技術,例如水冷系統。

  • So we're seeing the investment in the R&D is ramping that and the products now coming out the door are truly innovative and allow for us to take share from that perspective. So we're very excited. Lot more to come there. I know we talked about it on the last call, some of those products, but I continue to be excited in both the channel for colo, hyperscale, even our enterprise customers and Edge customers, the stuff that we've got in the pipeline and the stuff that's already hit the ground that is really aiding us and getting above-market growth rate.

    所以我們看到,研發投入正在加速成長,現在推出的產品確實具有創新性,使我們能夠從這個角度搶佔市場份額。因此,我們非常興奮。未來還有更多產品即將問世。我知道我們在上次電話會議上討論過其中一些產品,但我仍然對通路方面充滿信心,無論是面向託管資料中心、超大規模資料中心,還是面向我們的企業客戶和邊緣運算客戶,我們都對正在研發和已經上市的產品感到振奮,這些產品確實幫助我們實現了高於市場平均水平的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • I think -- I'm not sure if you guys have talked about it this way in the past, but what was your book-to-bill in the quarter?

    我想——我不確定你們以前是否這樣討論過,但是你們本季的訂單出貨比是多少?

  • Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

    Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

  • Yes. Sorry, I think we're having audio difficulties. Can you hear me okay, Steve?

    是的。抱歉,我們好像遇到了音訊問題。史蒂夫,你聽得清楚我說話嗎?

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Yes. Yes.

    是的。是的。

  • Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

    Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

  • Yes. Sorry about that. I think -- I'm not sure if some of the management are having an audio difficulties. But I think you're right, I mean book-to-bill is traditionally not a statistical ratio that we speak about externally. But I think if you look at just the order growth that we've seen over the past couple of quarters in excess of 20% which has been -- we've also posted really strong sales growth in those orders, too, but the momentum on orders has just been very strong, but the bill isn't something that we've externally.

    是的,抱歉。我想——我不確定是不是部分管理人員的音訊出了問題。但我認為您說得對,我的意思是,訂單出貨比通常不是我們對外公開談論的統計指標。但如果您只看過去幾季超過20%的訂單成長,而且——這些訂單的銷售額也成長強勁——訂單成長勢頭非常強勁,但出貨比並不是我們對外公開的指標。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Okay. And then just on kind of the second half commodity forecast. I mean you're kind of calling it flat year-over-year. I think there are other companies out there that are definitely calling for it to kind of step up in the back half a little bit more. Is there something about how you guys hedge these costs or your assumptions around price movements that would impact that? Or maybe you're just having different volume trends in these other guys where you grew better last year?

    好的。那麼,關於下半年的大宗商品預測。我的意思是,你們預測下半年與去年同期持平。但我認為其他一些公司肯定預測下半年會有所成長。你們的成本對沖策略或價格走勢的假設會影響預測結果?或者,你們與其他公司相比,銷售成長趨勢有所不同?

  • I don't know. Is there any -- what's kind of the underlying assumption for that flat guidance for the second half on the commodes?

    我不知道。對於下半年馬桶銷售持平的預期,其基本假設為何?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. It's based on what we're seeing in each of the regions. And as I mentioned, there's definitely regional differences. I would say we feel pretty good with where we're locked in as it relates in the forecast as it relates to APAC and EMEA the price increases from a steel perspective, as an example, certainly, were more pronounced in the Americas than the other 2 regions.

    是的。這是基於我們對各個地區情況的觀察。正如我之前提到的,地區差異確實存在。就亞太和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的預測而言,我們對目前的預測結果相當滿意。例如,從鋼鐵價格的角度來看,美洲地區的漲幅明顯高於其他兩個地區。

  • So I would say if we do have uncertainty, it's related to what we're seeing in the Americas. With that said, I think what we have assumed in our forecast for Q3 and Q4 is actually slightly higher than what we're seeing currently. So even though it's below Q2, it's slightly lower than what we're seeing currently.

    所以,我認為如果存在不確定性,那主要與我們在美洲地區看到的情況有關。話雖如此,我認為我們對第三季和第四季的預測實際上略高於目前的實際情況。因此,儘管低於第二季度,但仍略低於目前的實際情況。

  • And we've seen some stabilization in some of our input costs over the last 30 to 45 days. At the end of the day, we don't 100% know what's going to happen, but we believe we have enough of conservatism from a cost perspective built in. And the other dynamic to that is related to the spot buys. And as we mentioned, that's primarily related to electronic components, and we're certainly not unique in having that issue. That's a dynamic that we certainly believe can extend into 2022.

    過去30到45天裡,我們的一些投入成本已經趨於穩定。最終,我們無法百分之百確定未來走向,但我們相信,從成本角度來看,我們已經採取了足夠的保守策略。另一個影響因素是現貨採購。正如我們之前提到的,這主要與電子元件有關,而我們並非唯一面臨此問題的企業。我們認為,這種趨勢很可能會持續到2022年。

  • But what we've included in the back half of the year is a combination of what we're seeing in market and also managed. So we certainly have an election whether to do a spot buy or not to do a spot buy, and we're making that decision based on a profitability algorithm, meaning we're not going to execute spot buys for every single order, but we certainly will prioritize those decisions based on what we're seeing on the demand side in the short run.

    但我們在下半年採取的策略是綜合考慮市場狀況和管理因素。因此,我們當然會選擇是否進行現貨採購,而我們的決策是基於獲利演算法,這意味著我們不會對每一筆訂單都執行現貨採購,但我們肯定會根據短期需求情況來優先考慮這些決策。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Lance Vitanza with Cowen.

    下一個問題來自考恩公司的蘭斯·維坦扎。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • On Slide 9, with respect to cash taxes and the inventory impact there, the inventory, $18 million of incremental inventory build over what I guess, what you did in 2Q '20, when should we expect to see the reversal of that back into cash flow as at some point you begin to work off the inventory build? And will we expect to see -- or should we expect to see additional inventory building before we get to that point?

    關於第9張幻燈片中提到的現金稅及其對庫存的影響,庫存方面,我猜想你們在2020年第二季度增加了1800萬美元的庫存,我們應該何時才能看到這部分成本轉化為現金流,因為你們最終會開始消化這些庫存?在我們達到這個階段之前,是否應該預期會看到進一步的庫存增加?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. So if you look back at our historical cash flow generation from a quarterly perspective, we certainly have a pronounced uptick in the fourth quarter. Part of that is because of the higher volume that we see. And we generally build inventory during the year and then bleed it down in the fourth quarter.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。回顧我們以往的季度現金流狀況,第四季的確出現了明顯的成長。部分原因是銷量增加。我們通常會在年內累積庫存,然後在第四季度將其消耗掉。

  • So I would say normally that dynamic happens in the fourth quarter. And as I mentioned, the reason we did not take our free cash flow full year guidance up in the current guidance is a little bit because of the dynamic of what you're questioning. So it may make strategic sense for us to continue to build inventory, notably with electronic parts as it relates to adding some insurance heading into next year.

    所以,通常情況下,這種動態變化會在第四季發生。正如我之前提到的,我們之所以沒有在目前的業績指引中上調全年自由現金流預期,部分原因正是由於您剛才提到的這種動態變化。因此,繼續增加庫存,特別是電子元件庫存,可能對我們具有戰略意義,因為這可以為明年增加一些保障。

  • So all other things being equal, the standard answer is generally, we would see that cash flow impact in the fourth quarter. This year, we're going to wait probably till sometime at the end of the third quarter, early fourth quarter to see if it makes sense to continue that inventory investment.

    因此,在其他條件相同的情況下,通常的答案是,我們會在第四季度看到現金流的影響。今年,我們可能會等到第三季末或第四季初,再來判斷繼續進行庫存投資是否合理。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • Perfect. And then on the tax [rate], you mentioned that part of it is timing, part of it is just higher -- just the operating profit. Can you help us -- is it sort of 50-50 in terms of those 2 items? And how much would you say is (technical difficulty)?

    好的。關於稅率,您提到一部分原因是時間因素,一部分原因是更高的營業利潤。您能幫我們解釋一下嗎?這兩個因素的影響大概各佔一半嗎?您覺得技術難度大概是多少?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. From a cash tax perspective, that's clearly related to timing last year. So our estimated cash tax payments in the second quarter of 2020 were probably artificially low based on our actual profits we were seeing on a year-to-date basis and also our expectations for the full year. So that's just the timing issue. I'll probably take this opportunity to maybe talk a little bit about the tax impact on the P&L.

    是的。從現金稅的角度來看,這顯然與去年的時間表有關。因此,根據我們年初至今的實際利潤以及對全年的預期,我們2020年第二季的現金稅款預估可能被人為低估了。所以這只是時間安排的問題。我可能會藉此機會稍微談談稅收對損益表的影響。

  • So we did take our full year income tax expense down about $10 million, $11 million for the full year. If you look at our tax expense, in Q2, we guided closer to 2021, and our expense was actually about $1 million. So that's a $20 million P&L benefit. That's not necessarily tied to this $20 million cash variance just for -- just for clarity there.

    因此,我們全年所得稅支出減少了約1000萬至1100萬美元。如果您看我們第二季度的稅項支出,我們預測該支出將更接近2021年水平,而實際支出約為100萬美元。因此,這帶來了2000萬美元的損益收益。需要說明的是,這並非一定與2000萬美元的現金差異有直接關係。

  • But half of the $20 million P&L benefit was related to some legal entity restructuring we did in -- outside the U.S. That's a permanent benefit. The other $10 million was related to the ASC 740 accounting. So it's purely timing based. And a lot of that was unfortunately driven by the accounting we have to do for warrants, which pushed a lot of net $10 million expense in Q3 and probably more significantly in Q4. So probably more than what you're asking for from a tax perspective, but I thought there may be a question out there on that.

    但2000萬美元損益收益中的一半與我們在美國境外進行的法律實體重組有關。這是一項永久性收益。另一半1000萬美元與ASC 740會計準則有關。所以這完全取決於時間因素。不幸的是,其中很大一部分是由我們對認股權證的會計處理造成的,這導致第三季淨支出增加了1000萬美元,第四季可能增加更多。因此,從稅務角度來看,這可能超過了您所要求的金額,但我認為大家可能對此有所疑問。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • Appreciate it. The last one (technical difficulty) 2.2x net leverage that you called out on the slide, I would imagine the gross leverage is closer to 3x. But could you just remind us like where should we think that leverage, whether it's (inaudible) where do you think that's going to shape up a year from now, 2 years from now? And what other types of things should we be expecting you to use your cash from this $1 billion of liquidity that you have?

    非常感謝。關於您在投影片上提到的最後一個問題(技術上有點困難),2.2倍的淨槓桿率,我估計總槓桿率應該接近3倍。您能否提醒我們一下,這個槓桿率該如何改變? (聽不清楚)您認為一年後、兩年後會是什麼樣子?另外,您打算如何利用這10億美元的營運資金?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Lance. So you're right. On a gross basis, gross leverage is probably 3.3x, and we had about $700 million of cash on our balance sheet at the (inaudible) that's what takes you down to the 2.2x, but we don't see that $700 million as burning a hole in our pocket So as we kind of mentioned, if you look at our priorities, we'll continue to pay down debt, but we certainly would like to use our balance sheet to look at some strategic acquisitions.

    是的,謝謝蘭斯。你說得對。總槓桿率大概是3.3倍,而我們資產負債表上當時有大約7億美元的現金(聽不清楚),這讓槓桿率降到了2.2倍,但我們不認為這7億美元會成為我們資金的負擔。正如我們剛才提到的,如果我們看一下我們的優先事項,我們會繼續償還債務,但我們當然也希望利用我們的資產負債表進行一些策略性收購。

  • And when we started this journey about 18 months ago, our net leverage was net 6 to 6.5x. We were 4x when we SPAC. And sitting at 2.2x feels a lot better. We have always talked about probably a comfortable long-term range is in that 2 to 3x. But with that said, we would certainly be comfortable getting above 3x for the right deal. And we also would feel comfortable getting below 2x if that right deal was not available.

    大約18個月前,當我們開始這段旅程時,我們的淨槓桿率在6到6.5倍之間。 SPAC上市時,我們的淨槓桿率為4倍。現在2.2倍,感覺好多了。我們一直認為,2到3倍的槓桿率比較適合長期發展。但話雖如此,如果遇到適當的交易,我們當然也願意接受超過3倍的槓桿率。如果沒有適當的交易,我們同樣也願意接受低於2倍的槓桿率。

  • But from a prioritization perspective, we'll continue to pay down debt with certainly look at accretive strategic acquisitions. And if we're in a position we have to do something from a dividend perspective or a share repurchase perspective, we'll look at that when the time comes.

    但從優先順序來看,我們會繼續償還債務,同時也會考慮進行能夠提升業績的策略性收購。如果出於分紅或股票回購的目的,我們必須採取行動,我們會在時機成熟時再做決定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • So you've mentioned that your pipeline and orders were continuing to improve in enterprise. Obviously, you didn't change any of your enterprise bubbles yet, but you did say that you could change them next quarter if current trends persist. So is it possible to quantify in some way what the recovery is looking like for you exiting Q2 in enterprise? And then ultimately, where have you seen the improved orders within enterprise? And what continuing trends are you looking at to turn enterprise from yellow to green?

    您提到企業業務的銷售管道和訂單持續改善。顯然,您目前還沒有調整任何企業業務的業績指標,但您也表示,如果目前的趨勢持續下去,下個季度可能會進行調整。那麼,您能否量化一下第二季末企業業務的復甦情況?最終,您認為企業業務中哪些方面的訂單有所改善?您預期哪些趨勢能夠推動企業業務從黃色轉為綠色?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So Andy, I'll start with that. And what I'd say is we began to see kind of in the June time frame that enterprise began to pick up by evidence of some of the channel movements, right, typically, refreshes as people go back to the office and network closets and things like that need to be picked up and refresh since they've been sitting there for a while.

    是的。安迪,我就從這方面開始說起。我想說的是,從六月開始,我們看到企業業務開始回暖,一些管道的變動也印證了這一點。通常情況下,隨著人們重返辦公室,網路機櫃之類的設備需要更新,因為它們已經閒置了一段時間。

  • So that gives us some excitement about where it's going. We want to see that continue through Q3. And if we do, then you'll see that turn to green in terms of the buying, it is back. I would say, as we think about some of the hotter verticals right now in the enterprise area, it's certainly health care spending education spending some areas still kind of (inaudible) as the travel.

    這讓我們對它的發展前景感到興奮。我們希望這種勢頭能夠延續到第三季。如果能夠實現,那麼你會看到購買力回升,市場恢復正常。我認為,就目前企業領域一些比較熱門的垂直產業而言,醫療保健支出、教育支出無疑是熱門之選,而像旅遊這樣一些領域仍然比較冷清。

  • We certainly see financial institutions spending. So beginning we're post-COVID, but we've got this in-out thing still going on. We had talked about in previous calls that we have seen a lot of quote activity, a lot of engineering activity, and that is now being turned and placed into orders for us in the enterprise space. So I'm confident if it continues at the trajectory we saw in June that we'll be seeing a green there, and we'll be upwards in that enterprise space.

    我們確實看到金融機構在支出。雖然現在已是後疫情時代,但資金流入和流出的情況仍在持續。我們在先前的電話會議中提到過,我們看到大量的報價活動和工程活動,這些活動現在正在轉化為企業級訂單。因此,我相信如果這種勢頭能夠延續到六月,我們將看到企業級業務的復甦,並實現成長。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • And to be clear, you haven't seen any falloff in that trajectory with delta being around here, it's still been pretty good in July?

    需要明確的是,你沒有看到這種趨勢有任何下滑,因為達美航空的匯率一直維持在這個水準附近,7月的表現仍然相當不錯?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I would say without kind of going -- yes, we continue to see the trajectory and in the right direction for that enterprise business throughout July. Now again, it's early, lots of places are locking down with masks again. Again, we'll see what happens and what that does. But prior to all that, we are optimistic that we would be going green in Q3.

    是的,我可以說,無需贅述——是的,我們看到企業業務在整個七月份都保持著良好的發展軌跡,並且朝著正確的方向前進。當然,現在還為時過早,很多地方又開始實施封鎖並要求戴上口罩。我們會繼續觀察事態發展以及這些措施的影響。但在此之前,我們樂觀地認為第三季能夠獲利。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • Great. And then it's great that you reiterate your medium-term adjusted operating margin target at 16% and reaching 20% I know you mentioned that the net tailwind from pricing in '22 happens. But does the current operating environment lead you to question at all the timing of the improvement? And then we know one of the main longer-term initiatives for Vertiv is to improve its pricing ability. So how would you assess your increased focus on dynamic pricing and how it's been working in the current environment?

    太好了。您重申中期調整後營業利潤率目標為16%,並爭取達到20%,真是太棒了。我知道您提到2022年價格上漲將帶來淨利好。但目前的經營環境是否讓您對利潤改善的時機產生任何疑問?我們知道,Vertiv的主要長期策略之一是提升定價能力。那麼,您如何評估公司對動態定價的日益重視,以及它在當前環境下的成效?

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • I'll start off and then, David, you can chime in, or Gary. But obviously, we're getting more and more sophisticated with our ways we get price. We've talked about it in the past where we've instituted some AI and really pricing tools that allow our salespeople to understand when we lose at what price and when we win. We're expanding those tools as we've talked in the past, throughout Europe and then Asia.

    我先說,然後David或Gary可以補充。顯然,我們在定價方面的方法越來越精細化。我們之前討論過,我們引入了一些人工智慧和定價工具,讓我們的銷售人員能夠了解在什麼價格下我們會輸,以及在什麼價格下我們會贏。正如我們之前提到的,我們正在將這些工具推廣到歐洲,然後是亞洲。

  • So this will continue to be a muscle that will flex and grow and get more and more mature and use more data analytics to drive it. So we continue to believe that pricing will be one of those levers that will continue to drive for years to come. But I feel good about where we're at. I feel good about the methodologies that we have and the ability to get that and really stemmed from a couple of years ago when we first started it, and we just continue to drive that. I don't know, David, any thoughts there?

    所以,這方面會像肌肉一樣不斷鍛鍊、成長,日趨成熟,並且更多地運用數據分析來驅動發展。我們仍然相信,定價將在未來幾年繼續發揮關鍵作用。但我對我們目前的狀況感到滿意。我對我們現有的方法論以及實現目標的能力感到滿意,這實際上源於幾年前我們剛開始做這件事的時候,而我們也一直在繼續前進。大衛,你有什麼想法嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • No, 100% agree, Rob. So I think what -- this year, it does not impact our plan to continue to increase adjusted operating margins in that 16% in the long term 20% range. And if anything, what we have seen this year has actually allowed us to develop some muscle from a pricing perspective. So that's always been a part of the equation to improve margins. And I think what we've seen this year gives us even more confidence that we can use that as a lever to -- on our path to 16% and then 20%.

    不,我完全同意,羅布。所以我認為-今年的情況不會影響我們繼續將調整後營業利益率提升至16%,並最終達到長期20%目標的計畫。事實上,今年的情況反而讓我們在定價上更有優勢。定價一直是提升利潤率的關鍵因素之一。我認為今年的情況讓我們更有信心,我們可以利用定價作為槓桿,朝著16%甚至20%的目標邁進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 Amit Daryanani。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess I have 2 questions as well. First up, I just wanted to understand, given the decision to ensure you have supply and product availability versus near-term profits, is that resulting in new customer acquisitions, new wins? Or are you really trying to satisfy your existing customers? And if figures around new customers then, should we think about you structurally beyond '21 being able to exploit the share gains, which I think you talked about 1.5x industry growth historically?

    我還有兩個問題。首先,我想了解的是,鑑於貴公司決定優先確保供應和產品供應,而不是追求短期利潤,這是否會帶來新客戶?或者貴公司其實是在努力滿足現有客戶的需求?如果主要目標是新客戶,那麼我們是否應該考慮貴公司在2021年後的結構性發展,以充分利用市場份額的成長?我記得您之前提到過,貴公司的歷史成長率是行業平均的1.5倍。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I would say the -- first of all, thanks, Amit, for the question. This is Rob. I would say, absolutely, it's all customers, right, whether it's new or existing, we prioritize them as the orders come in and take care of them. And we've been very fair in our process. Certainly, with some of the new products that we've talked about the thermal management side and even some of the power management stuff and certainly channel, we feel like we have sustainable gain share there happening and we'll continue to see that momentum.

    是的。首先,謝謝Amit的提問。我是Rob。我想說,當然,所有客戶都是我們優先考慮的對象,無論是新客戶還是老客戶,我們都會根據訂單情況優先處理。我們的流程一直都非常公平。當然,就我們之前提到的一些新產品而言,例如散熱管理、電源管理以及通路方面,我們感覺已經取得了可持續的市場份額成長,而且這種勢頭還會持續下去。

  • And that's how part of our whole story is innovation and driving innovation and using that to take market share from a lot of the, what I call, more local companies. So we've globalized some of these products through our Vertiv Product Development process. And we see this being very sticky for us going into the next years. And it's, again, part of our strategy to grow faster than market.

    這就是我們整個發展歷程的一部分:創新、推動創新,並利用創新從許多我稱之為「本土企業」的公司手中奪取市場份額。我們透過Vertiv產品開發流程,已經將部分產品推向全球市場。我們認為,在未來幾年,這將對我們至關重要。這再次體現了我們超越市場成長速度的策略。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then I guess, David, when I look at your back half growth guide, you're implying 7% growth, 7.5% growth. Could you maybe contrast that with the full stack that's going to grow 24% and your backlog that's up 20% -- I guess, compares about, but why the decel in back half when your backlog is so strong?

    明白了。然後,David,我看了你下半年的成長指南,你暗示的成長是7%或7.5%。你能不能把這個數字跟全端增長24%以及積壓訂單增長20%對比一下?我猜兩者差不多,但為什麼積壓訂單這麼強勁,下半年的成長速度卻會放緩呢?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. I think there's 2 dynamics that are driving that. And companies often reference challenging comps. And at the end of the day, we target growth regardless of what the comps are. But we do because of the dynamics of what we saw with COVID in the first half of last year, notably in Q2. Some of those sales were pushed in the back half of the year. And notably the fourth quarter of last year, it creates a challenging comp. So that's number one.

    是的。我認為有兩個因素在驅動這種情況。公司常會提到具有挑戰性的同店銷售。歸根究底,無論同店銷售情況如何,我們的目標都是實現成長。但我們之所以這麼做,是因為去年上半年,特別是第二季度,新冠疫情帶來的衝擊。部分銷售額延後到下半年。尤其值得注意的是,去年第四季的同店銷售情況非常糟糕。這是第一個因素。

  • Number two is, as we mentioned, there's probably a little bit of cushion or buffer or conservatism, however you want to describe it, built into what we're seeing as it relates to our expectations of sales that we won't necessarily be able to deliver because of some of the supply chain constraints. And I think if you look at the -- from a quarterly perspective, I think it's 8% organic growth in Q3, 4% in Q4. We believe what we're guiding to is certainly is a very doable number, and we hope there's some upside.

    第二點,正如我們之前提到的,我們對銷售額的預期可能存在一些緩衝或保守的餘地,無論你怎麼形容,都考慮到了這一點。由於供應鏈的一些限制,我們未必能完全實現預期目標。我認為,從季度角度來看,第三季有機成長率為8%,第四季為4%。我們相信,我們給出的預期目標絕對是一個可以實現的數字,我們希望它還有一些提升空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rob Johnson for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我把會議交還給羅伯·約翰遜,請他作總結發言。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Okay. So all of you listening today and for your support, thank you again for the participation, the questions. As you can tell, I'm very excited about the demand for Vertiv products going forward for the rest of this year and well into 2022. So again, I appreciate the support, and this concludes the call for today.

    好的。感謝各位今天的收聽,感謝你們的支持,再次感謝你們的參與與提問。正如你們所聽到的,我對Vertiv產品在今年剩餘時間和2022年的需求前景非常樂觀。再次感謝大家的支持,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。