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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Anthony, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vertiv Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded.
早安.我叫安東尼,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此,我謹代表Vertiv公司歡迎各位參加2021年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,本次通話正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations.
現在,我將把主持今天的電話會議的主持人交給投資者關係副總裁琳恩·馬克西納。
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Great. Thank you, Anthony, and good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Rob Johnson; Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon; and Chief Strategy and Development Officer, Gary Niederpruem.
偉大的。謝謝安東尼,早安,歡迎參加Vertiv 2021年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有 Vertiv 的執行董事長 Dave Cote;執行長 Rob Johnson;財務長 David Fallon;以及首席策略與發展長 Gary Niederpruem。
Before we begin, I'd point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release and you can learn more about these risks in our registration statement, our annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC.
在開始之前,我想指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和營運績效。這些前瞻性陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。我們建議您參閱今天發布的收益報告中的警示性語言,您可以在我們的註冊聲明、10-K 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的信息。
Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. On this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.
我們今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。在本次電話會議上,我們也將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的 GAAP 業績以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表可以在我們的獲利新聞稿和投資者簡報中找到,這些資料可以在我們的網站 investors.vertiv.com 上找到。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.
接下來,我將把電話交給執行主席戴夫·科特。
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Good morning, everyone. The current environment we're operating in is certainly a challenging one. I can't remember a tying analogous to it. You can see from the press that demand remains strong in almost every end market and ours is very strong, especially with our new product initiatives. In the short term, we have to continue to fight the battles for component parts to support our customers, and we need to get ahead of the price inflation curve that Rob will tell you more about. While this is a painful and an irritating time to deal with, it is what it is. And I can assure you, we will come out of this admirably, especially given our investments in the long term.
各位早安。我們目前所處的環境無疑充滿挑戰。我記不起有類似的打結方式。從媒體報導可以看出,幾乎所有終端市場的需求仍然強勁,而我們的市場需求尤其強勁,尤其是在我們推出新產品之後。短期內,我們必須繼續為支持客戶而爭奪零件,並且我們需要搶在價格上漲之前應對,羅布會詳細地告訴你這一點。雖然這段時間令人痛苦和惱火,但事情就是這樣。我可以向你們保證,我們一定會出色地度過難關,尤其考慮到我們的長期投資。
We're obviously enthused about the E+ I acquisition, which we will do very well with. Gary and I were down in the E+ I facility at South Carolina a few weeks ago with Phil brainstorming and reviewing the cost and revenue synergies we know we can create over the next several years. In addition to the synergy review, we discussed the investments we can make in further products and services, process improvements, people and systems that will pay dividends over the medium and long term.
我們顯然對E+充滿熱情。我收購了這家公司,我們會做得很好。我和加里當時在E+層。幾週前,我和菲爾在南卡羅來納州的工廠裡集思廣益,審查了我們知道在未來幾年內可以創造的成本和收入協同效應。除了協同效應評估之外,我們還討論了我們可以對更多產品和服務、流程改進、人員和系統進行的投資,這些投資將在中長期帶來回報。
There is a lot happening in the business that portends a superb future. So while we continue planning and executing for the future, we recognize we also got to get through the current situation and do everything we can to continue supporting our customers, which we will do.
商業領域正在發生很多事情,預示著一個美好的未來。因此,在我們繼續規劃和執行未來計劃的同時,我們也意識到我們必須渡過當前的難關,盡一切努力繼續支持我們的客戶,而我們也一定會這樣做。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob. Rob?
那麼,接下來我將把電話交給羅布。搶?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thank you, Dave. The reviews that you continue to conduct with me and the team always leave us in a better place, and our business is actually in a much better place because of your involvement. So all of you on today's call, thank you for being here. I'm eager for you to hear more about our 2021 third quarter performance, our outlook on the market and an update on our portfolio. There are 6 key messages I want to convey today.
謝謝你,戴夫。您持續與我和我的團隊進行的評估總是讓我們受益匪淺,事實上,由於您的參與,我們的業務狀況也得到了極大的改善。所以,今天參加電話會議的各位,謝謝你們的到來。我非常希望您能進一步了解我們 2021 年第三季的業績、市場展望以及投資組合的最新情況。今天我想傳達6個關鍵訊息。
First, as Dave mentioned, demand for Vertiv products and services remain strong. During our last earnings call, we reported second quarter sales were up more than 25% and orders were up 24% compared to the second quarter of last year. I'm pleased to report that sales and orders are up again in Q3. Sales were up 6%, which is very much in line with the guidance we provided in our last update and orders were up 17%. In addition, our Q3 backlog rose to $2.4 billion, the highest it's ever been.
首先,正如戴夫所提到的,對Vertiv產品和服務的需求仍然強勁。在上次財報電話會議上,我們報告稱,第二季度銷售額比去年同期增長超過 25%,訂單量增長 24%。我很高興地報告,第三季銷售額和訂單量再次上升。銷售額成長了 6%,這與我們上次更新中提供的指導非常吻合;訂單量增加了 17%。此外,我們第三季的積壓訂單增加至 24 億美元,創歷史新高。
Second, profitability is up. This quarter, our adjusted operating profit was $131 million, up $64 million from last year's third quarter. This resulted in adjusted operating margin expansion of 490 basis points.
其次,盈利能力有所提高。本季度,我們調整後的營業利潤為 1.31 億美元,比去年第三季增加了 6,400 萬美元。這使得調整後的營業利潤率提高了 490 個基點。
Third, year-to-date free cash flow is greater today than it was this time last year. Free cash flow for Q3 was $44 million and year-to-date is $128 million. For a year -- from a year-to-date perspective, this represents an improvement of over $140 million versus the first 3 quarters of 2020.
第三,今年迄今的自由現金流比去年同期高。第三季自由現金流為 4,400 萬美元,年初至今為 1.28 億美元。從年初至今來看,這比 2020 年前三個季度增長了超過 1.4 億美元。
Fourth, as Dave mentioned, we are dealing, like others, with supply chain and inflationary issues. We encountered supply chain challenges in Q3 and experienced commodity and freight inflation. We made spot buys so that we can meet our delivery commitments we've made to our customers, and we have implemented strategies to recapture those costs. Pricing always lagged cost by a few quarters, and that's exactly what we're seeing now. However, we believe, as we've mentioned before, pricing will be a tailwind in 2022.
第四,正如戴夫所提到的,我們和其他人一樣,正在應對供應鏈和通貨膨脹問題。第三季我們遇到了供應鏈的挑戰,並經歷了商品和運費上漲。我們進行了現貨採購,以便履行我們對客戶的交付承諾,我們已經實施了相關策略來收回這些成本。定價總是比成本落後幾個季度,而這正是我們現在所看到的。不過,正如我們之前提到的,我們相信價格將在 2022 年成為一個有利因素。
Fifth. We expect to close the E+ I acquisition by November 1, which is a month earlier than previously communicated. In addition, we've signed an agreement to sell our heavy industrial UPS business, and we expect to close that transaction by the end of Q4.
第五。我們預計將完成E+的關閉。我將於11月1日完成收購,比之前宣布的時間提早了一個月。此外,我們已簽署協議出售我們的重型工業 UPS 業務,預計在第四季末完成該交易。
And the final key message is, we are confirming our latest guidance for the Vertiv base and slightly increasing our guidance for the impact of the M&A transaction.
最後一項重要訊息是,我們確認了對 Vertiv 業務規模的最新預期,並略微提高了對併購交易影響的預期。
Turning to Slide 4. This is the chart we use to illustrate what we're seeing in each of our world regions in each of our end markets. In the cloud and hyperscale colocation markets, they continue to remain strong as evidenced by the green buttons. The demand for digital continues to fuel the industry and is driving a strong and growing need for Vertiv products and services.
翻到第 4 張投影片。這張圖表用於說明我們在各個世界區域的各個終端市場中看到的情況。在雲端運算和超大規模託管市場,它們依然保持強勁勢頭,綠色按鈕就是最好的證明。對數位化的需求持續推動著產業發展,並帶動著對 Vertiv 產品和服務的強勁且不斷增長的需求。
In our enterprise and small to medium business market, we continue to see signs of progress. Enough progress is made in Americas to upgrade this segment from yellow to green. We continue to experience an increase in the pipeline and orders with Americas leading the way. The communication networks had a few moments. We saw 5G deployments in earlier parts of the year being very robust and began to see that slow or a digestion over the last quarter or so. We've experienced Europe beginning to deploy 5G, and we see consistent deployment in Americas. In the commercial and industrial markets, things remain consistent. While this is a smaller size of our business, the variety of products and services we sell here continue to expand.
在我們的企業和中小企業市場,我們不斷看到進步的跡象。美洲地區取得了足夠的進展,可以將這一部分從黃色升級為綠色。我們持續感受到專案儲備和訂單量的成長,其中美洲地區的成長尤為顯著。通訊網路短暫恢復正常了。今年早些時候,我們看到 5G 部署非常強勁,但在過去一個季度左右,這種勢頭開始放緩或逐漸減弱。我們已經看到歐洲開始部署 5G,我們看到美洲也持續部署 5G。在商業和工業市場,情況保持不變。雖然這家分店的規模較小,但我們在這裡銷售的產品和服務種類卻不斷擴大。
Moving to Slide 5. As referenced in my opening slide, our order rates continue to be robust. Our Q3 order rates were up 17% over Q3 of 2020 and on a year-to-date basis are up 21% versus the same time period last time with cloud and colocation segment leading our way. Vertiv's executive team remains closely connected to the accounts, and we're seeing the strong demand continue. Because of the deliberate connections we are making, we are gaining further visibility into customer demand, leading to advanced orders and insight to their future pipelines that we haven't seen in the past, which is a tremendous help in our demand planning as we go forward. This and other actions we are taking have led to a record backlog, as I mentioned earlier, of $2.4 billion, which is 34% higher than our backlog was at the end of 2020.
接下來是第 5 張投影片。正如我在第一張投影片中提到的,我們的訂單量依然保持強勁。第三季訂單量比 2020 年第三季成長了 17%,今年迄今的訂單量比去年同期成長了 21%,其中雲端和託管業務引領了成長。Vertiv 的管理團隊與客戶保持密切聯繫,我們看到強勁的需求仍在持續。由於我們有意建立聯繫,我們對客戶需求有了更深入的了解,從而獲得了以前從未見過的提前訂單和未來訂單規劃的洞察,這對我們未來的需求規劃大有裨益。正如我之前提到的,我們正在採取的這些措施以及其他措施導致了創紀錄的積壓訂單,金額高達 24 億美元,比 2020 年底的積壓訂單增加了 34%。
As you heard from Dave in his opening comments, supply chain continues to pose challenges for us and many, many others in the industry. Each of the regions are experiencing it, but it is most acute in Americas, where material availability is most difficult and commodity prices have risen beyond expectations. Where necessary, we'll continue to use spot buys so that we can take care of our customers. From a pricing standpoint, we are in line with our prior guidance we provided for Q4. We'll continue with pricing actions throughout 2022.
正如戴夫在開場白中所說,供應鏈繼續給我們以及業內許多其他人帶來挑戰。每個地區都面臨這種情況,但美洲的情況最為嚴重,因為那裡的物資供應最為困難,大宗商品價格上漲超出了預期。必要時,我們將繼續採用現貨採購的方式,以便更好地服務我們的客戶。從定價角度來看,我們與先前對第四季的指導意見一致。我們將於 2022 年全年繼續採取定價措施。
Moving to Slide 6. When we spoke last, we expected to close the E+ I deal by December 1, but I'm very pleased that we will be able to close this deal a month earlier due to the diligence of the combined Vertiv and E+ I teams and with help from our transaction partners. We had successfully -- we had a successful debt raise a few weeks back, and all antitrust hurdles have been cleared. The market reaction has been overwhelmingly positive. Gary, Phil, our Regional President, I have been on the phone with hundreds of customers and the receptivity to the deal is exactly what we wanted, very optimistic and very excited. Integration planning has started right after the deal was signed, and I look forward to entering into the execution mode in a few days. While E+ I orders remain very strong, they are facing site readiness and supply issues on electric components, no different than others in the industry.
轉到第6張投影片。上次我們談話時,我們預計會結束E+會議。我原定於12月1日完成交易,但非常高興的是,由於Vertiv和E+兩家公司共同進行的盡職調查,我們能夠提前一個月完成這筆交易。我與團隊合作,並得到了交易夥伴的幫助。幾週前,我們成功完成了債務融資,所有反壟斷障礙都已清除。市場反應總體上是正面的。Gary、Phil,我們的區域總裁,我已經和數百位客戶通了電話,他們對這筆交易的接受程度正是我們所希望的,非常樂觀,非常興奮。交易簽署後,整合計畫立即啟動,我期待在幾天內進入執行階段。E+訂單依然非常強勁,但他們面臨著場地準備和電子元件供應方面的問題,這與其他業內公司的情況並無不同。
Now let's turn to divestitures of the heavy-duty industrial UPS business. We have signed an agreement to sell this business to a financial sponsor called InnovaFonds. InnovaFonds will retain the existing management team, which makes for a very easy transition and provides for great customer continuity. We expect this transaction, as mentioned early, to close by the end of Q4.
現在讓我們來看看重型工業UPS業務的剝離情況。我們已簽署協議,將這項業務出售給名為 InnovaFonds 的金融贊助商。InnovaFonds 將保留現有的管理團隊,這使得過渡非常容易,並為客戶提供了良好的連續性。如前所述,我們預計這筆交易將在第四季末完成。
With that, I'll turn it over to David to take a closer look at the Q3 numbers and we'll come back with some final comments at the end. David?
接下來,我將把時間交給大衛,讓他更詳細地分析第三季的數據,最後我們再做一些總結性的評論。大衛?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Great. Thanks, Rob. Turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our third quarter financial results. Net sales were up $67 million or 6% and 4% when adjusted for a $20 million foreign exchange tailwind. However, our third quarter top line was negatively impacted by continued challenges with procuring electronic parts as underlying market demand is much stronger than implied in our year-over-year quarterly sales growth. The strong underlying market demand was evident with third quarter orders, as Rob mentioned, which were up 17% after increasing over 20% in the first half of the year.
偉大的。謝謝你,羅伯。請翻到第7頁。本頁總結了我們第三季的財務表現。淨銷售額成長 6,700 萬美元,增幅 6%;若扣除 2,000 萬美元的外匯利好因素,則成長 4%。然而,由於採購電子元件方面持續面臨挑戰,我們的第三季營收受到了負面影響,因為潛在的市場需求遠強於我們同比季度銷售成長所反映的需求。正如羅布所提到的那樣,強勁的潛在市場需求從第三季度的訂單量中可見一斑,該季度訂單量增長了 17%,而上半年訂單量增長了 20% 以上。
Adjusted operating profit of $131 million was just above the midpoint of our guidance range and increased $64 million or 94% from last year's third quarter, which included an $80 million charge for restructuring and an asset write-off. Contribution margin in the third quarter continued to be negatively impacted by material and freight inflation, which outpaced our pricing by approximately $40 million in the quarter. We expect to further narrow the imbalance between inflation and price in the fourth quarter and expect net price inflation to be favorable for full year 2022 as a result of incremental pricing actions in the fourth quarter and into next year.
經調整後的營業利潤為 1.31 億美元,略高於我們預期範圍的中點,比去年第三季度增長了 6,400 萬美元,增幅達 94%。去年第三季計入了 8,000 萬美元的重組費用和資產減記。第三季貢獻毛利持續受到原物料和運費上漲的負面影響,本季原物料和運費上漲幅度比我們的定價高出約 4,000 萬美元。我們預計第四季將進一步縮小通膨與物價之間的不平衡,並預期由於第四季及明年逐步實施的價格調整措施,2022 年全年淨價格通膨將有利於通膨。
Adjusted operating margin of 10.7% was 490 basis points higher than last year's third quarter, but approximately 200 basis points lower when last year is adjusted for the restructuring and asset write-off charge. And this year-over-year reduction is driven entirely by net inflation. Finally, on this page, free cash flow of $44 million was approximately $85 million lower than last year, and we will address the components of that delta in just a couple of slides. But despite this quarterly unfavorable variance year-to-date free cash flow of $128 million is still approximately $140 million higher than the same period last year.
經調整後的營業利潤率為 10.7%,比去年第三季高出 490 個基點,但如果將去年的利潤率扣除重組和資產減損費用後進行調整,則比去年同期低約 200 個基點。而這一同比降幅完全是由淨通膨造成的。最後,本頁的自由現金流為 4,400 萬美元,比去年減少了約 8,500 萬美元,我們將在幾張投影片中討論造成這一差異的組成部分。儘管本季出現不利波動,但年初至今的自由現金流為 1.28 億美元,仍比去年同期高出約 1.4 億美元。
Next, turning to Page 8. This slide summarizes our third quarter segment results. The Americas region continues to be more impacted by supply chain challenges than the 2 other regions due to regional differences in the paid for material inflation and availability of electronic parts. These supply chain challenges negatively impacted both America's top and bottom line with net sales up just $5 million or 1% against the strong market backdrop and adjusted operating margin was down approximately 400 basis points driven primarily by net inflation.
接下來,請翻到第 8 頁。本頁總結了我們第三季各業務板塊的業績。由於美洲地區原物料價格上漲和電子元件供應情況存在區域差異,該地區受供應鏈挑戰的影響比其他兩個地區更大。這些供應鏈挑戰對美國公司的營收和利潤都產生了負面影響,在強勁的市場背景下,淨銷售額僅增長了 500 萬美元,增幅僅為 1%,而調整後的營業利潤率下降了約 400 個基點,這主要是由於淨通貨膨脹造成的。
Moving to the right, APAC net sales were up approximately 4%, but relatively flat on an organic basis, as last year's third quarter benefited from China government investment in several telecom and wind power programs. Third quarter adjusted operating margin in APAC was up both before and after adjusting for the $11 million restructuring charge in last year's third quarter.
往右看,亞太地區淨銷售額成長約 4%,但以有機成長計算則相對持平,因為去年第三季受惠於中國政府對多個電信和風電項目的投資。亞太地區第三季調整後營業利潤率在扣除去年第三季 1,100 萬美元重組費用前後均有所成長。
EMEA continues to post very strong financial performance with net sales up 19% from last year's third quarter, and adjusted operating margin was up almost 300 basis points after adjusting for last year's $41 million regional restructuring charge. And although not immune to the effects of net inflation, the EMEA supply chain environment, at least to date, has been less disrupted than the other 2 regions.
歐洲、中東和非洲地區繼續保持強勁的財務業績,淨銷售額比去年第三季度增長了 19%,調整後的營業利潤率在扣除去年 4,100 萬美元的區域重組費用後增長了近 300 個基點。儘管歐洲、中東和非洲地區的供應鏈環境也未能免受淨通膨的影響,但至少到目前為止,它受到的干擾比其他兩個地區要小。
Next, turning to Slide 9. This chart bridges the third quarter free cash flow from last year, down about $85 million to $44 million. The most significant negative variance is driven by a $43 million inventory build in this year's third quarter, in part due to several large project delays and the strategic stocking of certain electronic parts to protect future customer deliveries. CapEx was approximately $10 million higher this year versus last year. And certainly last year's third quarter was negatively impacted by certain COVID constraints. On a year-to-date basis, free cash flow is up $128 million. And we reaffirm our full year free cash flow guidance of $205 million, which includes approximately $45 million cash outflow for M&A transaction expenses.
接下來,請看第 9 張投影片。這張圖表比較了第三季與去年同期的自由現金流,從約 8,500 萬美元降至 4,400 萬美元。最顯著的負面差異是由今年第三季 4,300 萬美元的庫存增加造成的,部分原因是幾個大型項目延期以及為保障未來客戶交付而對某些電子零件進行戰略性儲備。今年的資本支出比去年增加了約1,000萬美元。當然,去年第三季也受到了新冠疫情某些限制因素的負面影響。今年迄今為止,自由現金流增加了 1.28 億美元。我們重申全年自由現金流預期為 2.05 億美元,其中包括約 4,500 萬美元的併購交易費用現金流出。
Next, turning to Slide 10. This page summarizes our fourth quarter financial guidance, which includes provision for base Vertiv prior to M&A activity plus the expected impact of the E+ I acquisition and the industrial UPS business divestiture. So we're avoiding the doubt, we M&A transaction closing and other expenses in our financial results and guidance, $18 million in the third quarter, which includes a $9 million impairment loss for the sale of the industrial UPS business, and $51 million in the fourth quarter or $69 million total transaction expenses for the full year. And we summarize our non-GAAP treatment of these expenses in the reconciliations in the appendix to this presentation.
接下來,請看第 10 張投影片。本頁概述了我們第四季度的財務預期,其中包括併購活動前Vertiv的基本準備金以及預期E+的影響。我收購了UPS工業業務並剝離了該業務。為了避免任何疑問,我們在財務業績和指導中計入了併購交易結算和其他費用,第三季度為 1800 萬美元,其中包括出售工業 UPS 業務的 900 萬美元減值損失,第四季度為 5,100 萬美元,全年交易總費用為 6,900 萬美元。我們在本次簡報附錄的調整表中總結了我們對這些費用的非GAAP處理方法。
Our base Vertiv net sales guidance is up approximately $35 million from our previous guidance based upon improved visibility of our supply and shipment schedules in the fourth quarter. We have also added $55 million incremental net sales from M&A, including $65 million from E+ I, offset by $10 million reduced sales from the industrial UPS business divestiture. As Rob mentioned, when we announced the E+ I transaction at the beginning of September, we anticipated a December 1 closing date and $45 million of incremental fourth quarter revenue from E+ I. Now with the acceleration of the anticipated closing date to November 1, we expect $65 million of incremental E+ I revenue in the fourth quarter.
由於第四季度供應和發貨計劃的可見性提高,我們對 Vertiv 基本淨銷售額的預期比之前的預期高出約 3500 萬美元。我們也透過併購新增了 5,500 萬美元淨銷售額,其中包括來自 E+ 的 6,500 萬美元。被剝離 UPS 工業業務導致的 1000 萬美元銷售額減少所抵銷。正如羅布所提到的,當我們宣布 E+ 時9月初的這筆交易,我們預計於12月1日完成交割,並從E+獲得4500萬美元的第四季增量收入。一、鑑於預期交割日期提前至11月1日,我們預計將新增6,500萬美元的E+收益。第四季營收。
Adjusted operating profit for base Vertiv is materially in line with our previous guidance at $540 million, with the benefit from higher net sales, offset by higher expected gross material and freight inflation versus our early September guidance. We have added approximately $13 million in operating profit to our guidance for M&A, and that includes $15 million for E+ I, assuming a November 1 closing date once again. And that $15 million is offset by approximately $2 million from the sale of the industrial UPS business, expected to close in early December. Compared with last year's fourth quarter, net sales are expected to be up 8%, adjusted operating profit up 16%, with 90 basis point improvement in adjusted operating margin. Adjusted EPS is expected to be down approximately $0.02 per share but the year-over-year comparison certainly is negatively impacted by the timing of income tax expense in this year's fourth quarter, which is artificially high due to the quarterly treatment of some nondeductible losses from the changes in the fair value of the warrant liability.
Vertiv 基礎業務的調整後營業利潤與我們先前的預期基本一致,為 5.4 億美元,這得益於更高的淨銷售額,但被高於我們 9 月初預期的毛原材料和運費通膨所抵消。我們在併購預期中增加了約1300萬美元的營業利潤,其中包括對E+的1500萬美元。我再次假設截止日期為11月1日。而這 1,500 萬美元的損失將被出售工業 UPS 業務所得的約 200 萬美元抵消,預計 12 月初完成交易。與去年第四季相比,淨銷售額預計將成長 8%,調整後營業利潤將成長 16%,調整後營業利潤率將提高 90 個基點。調整後每股收益預計將下降約 0.02 美元,但同比數據肯定會受到今年第四季度所得稅費用時間安排的負面影響,由於認股權證負債公允價值變動產生的一些不可抵扣損失按季度處理,導致該費用人為偏高。
Next, turning to Slide 11. We summarized our full year 2021 financial guidance, which includes base Vertiv and provision for the M&A activity. Full year net sales are expected to be $5 billion for the full year, and that's up 14% from 2020, including M&A. And the adjusted operating profit for 2021 is expected to be $553 million, up 62% from 2020 and still up 22% when adjusted for the $113 million of 2020 pro forma items. Our full year adjusted operating profit guidance for base Vertiv is unchanged from our previous guidance, so that's at $540 million. And adjusted operating margin for the full year is expected to be 11.1%, up 330 basis points from 2020 and still up 70 basis points when adjusted for 2020 pro forma items. Our full year free cash flow guidance of $205 million remains unchanged from previous guidance. And once again, this includes approximately $45 million of expected M&A cash transaction and closing expenses.
接下來,請看第 11 張投影片。我們總結了 2021 年全年財務預期,其中包括 Vertiv 的基本業績和併購活動的準備金。預計全年淨銷售額將達到 50 億美元,比 2020 年成長 14%,其中包括併購收入。預計 2021 年調整後的營業利潤為 5.53 億美元,比 2020 年成長 62%,即使扣除 2020 年 1.13 億美元的備考項目,仍成長 22%。我們對 Vertiv 基礎業務的全年調整後營業利潤預期與先前的預期相同,為 5.4 億美元。預計全年調整後營業利潤率為 11.1%,比 2020 年成長 330 個基點,即使計入 2020 年備考項目,仍成長 70 個基點。我們全年自由現金流預期仍為2.05億美元,與先前的預期一致。此外,這其中還包括約 4,500 萬美元的預計併購現金交易和交割費用。
So with that said, I turn it back over to Rob.
那麼,接下來就交給羅布了。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Well, thanks, David. Let's turn to Slide 12. Well, almost all the commentary thus far has been focused on 2021. We did want to provide an early glimpse of 2022, which we're really excited about. From a top line perspective, we clearly enter the year with a backlog that's significantly higher than what we came into in 2021. And from my view, right now, the backlog will be approximately $500 million higher than previous.
謝謝你,大衛。讓我們翻到第 12 張投影片。到目前為止,幾乎所有的評論都集中在 2021 年。我們確實想讓大家提前了解一下 2022 年的情況,我們對此感到非常興奮。從總體上看,我們今年的積壓訂單明顯比 2021 年年初多得多。依我看來,目前的積壓訂單將比之前增加約 5 億美元。
As discussed on the earlier slide, our markets continue to show strong demand for our products. All signs are pruning to cloud and colocation markets remaining robust globally. And from an enterprise perspective, demand should continue at the same pace we're seeing it today. During our last few calls, we highlighted some of the Vertiv product development initiatives we have underway. And these products only accelerate in 2022 and beyond. We continue to invest in new product development and go-to-market strategies. From a potential headwind standpoint, we're expecting to see parts shortages last at least through the first half of next year. We also know customers are dealing with trade labor shortages and difficulty in getting some of the key building materials that they need. While it's difficult to predict the exact impact on us. These are very real issues and our customers are dealing with them on a day-to-day basis.
正如前一張投影片中所討論的,我們的市場對我們的產品持續表現出強勁的需求。種種跡象表明,全球雲端運算和託管市場仍將保持強勁勢頭。從企業角度來看,需求應該會繼續保持目前的速度。在最近幾次通話中,我們重點介紹了Vertiv正在進行的一些產品開發計劃。而這些產品在 2022 年及以後只會加速發展。我們將繼續投資新產品開發和市場推廣策略。從潛在的不利因素來看,我們預計零件短缺至少會持續到明年上半年。我們也知道客戶正面臨勞動力短缺和難以獲得所需關鍵建築材料的問題。雖然很難預測會對我們的具體影響。這些都是非常現實的問題,我們的客戶每天都在處理這些問題。
As for profitability in 2022, we expect pricing will be a tailwind. We will have a full year of E+ I in our results, which will be accretive. We will continue to deploy the tenants of VOS, fixed cost constant and as mentioned earlier, still funding incremental R&D and growth initiatives. We do expect inflation to continue into 2022. But even at today's level, we are planning next year to be net positive on price.
至於 2022 年的獲利能力,我們預期價格將是一個利好因素。我們將擁有整整一年的E+我在我們的結果中,這將是累積性的。我們將繼續部署 VOS 的租戶,固定成本保持不變,如前所述,繼續為增量研發和成長計畫提供資金。我們預計通貨膨脹將持續到2022年。但即便以目前的水平,我們預計明年價格也將實現淨利。
Turning to Slide 13. As I close, I want you to know how proud I am with the Vertiv team and what we together as 1 Vertiv, have accomplished in the first 9 months. The results we've shared today are reflective of the hard work and commitment of our 20,000 employees globally, some of the factories, some in the field, some in the offices and some still working remotely in over 130 countries.
翻到第13張幻燈片。最後,我想讓大家知道,我為 Vertiv 團隊感到無比自豪,也為我們作為一個 Vertiv 團隊在前 9 個月所取得的成就感到驕傲。我們今天分享的成果體現了我們全球 20,000 名員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,他們有的在工廠工作,有的在現場,有的在辦公室,還有的仍在 130 多個國家遠端辦公。
As I look at the remaining month of 2021, as we continue to invest strategically, I'm confident we will see above-market top line growth, increase in profitability and strengthening in our balance sheet. When I look down the road at 2022 and beyond, my confidence is bolstered by the conversations I've had personally with partners and customers around the globe about demand, pricing and future pipelines.
展望 2021 年剩餘的月份,隨著我們繼續進行策略性投資,我相信我們將實現高於市場平均的營收成長、獲利能力提升以及資產負債表的增強。展望 2022 年及以後,我與全球各地的合作夥伴和客戶就需求、定價和未來發展方向進行的深入交流,增強了我的信心。
To all employees, I'm grateful for you and the part you played in the past 3 months that have allowed me to provide today's earnings report. Thank you for your dedication and your tireless efforts to take care of the customer. To our investors, thank you all for being on the call today. Thank you for your trust and support. It's truly my pleasure to be leading Vertiv.
給所有員工:感謝你們在過去三個月所做的貢獻,正因為有了你們的努力,我才能發布今天的獲利報告。感謝您為服務客戶所付出的奉獻和不懈努力。感謝各位投資人今天參加電話會議。感謝您的信任與支持。能夠領導Vertiv,我深感榮幸。
I'll now turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for questions.
現在我將把電話轉交給接線員,以便接聽提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
(操作說明)第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
First on price, if we could, and just a little more color on what you're thinking about for next year. So your prices looks like it's kind of doubles in Q4 versus what you had in Q3. But I'm just wondering if you can give us some sense of how much price is in backlog at this point? And when you talk about price cost positive in 2022. Are you talking on -- I'm sure you at least me on a dollar basis, but I wonder if you also see it being positive on a margin rate basis?
首先,如果可以的話,請問價格方面有什麼想法?另外,能否再詳細說說您對明年的計畫?所以,你們第四季的價格似乎比第三季翻了一番。但我只是想問一下,您能否大致介紹一下目前積壓的價格訂單量是多少?而當你談到2022年的價格成本為正時。您是指——我相信您至少是從美元的角度來看的,但我想知道您是否也認為從利潤率的角度來看也是積極的?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Jeff, this is Rob. I'll start first, and then David and Gary can chime in. First of all, I'd like to start off by saying that we, and it's on me, have under-forecasted what inflation was going to do. And therefore, we haven't received the pricing level necessary to offset inflation in previous quarters. I can assure you going forward with our robust pricing actions and what we are doing now and we'll be doing in 2022 that we will be positive in price based on what we're executing on. So again, I just wanted to let everyone know on the call today that under forecasted inflation, we understand where that's at. We're even assuming that it could get potentially worse and we're making sure that our pricing actions now and going forward cover that. David?
傑夫,我是羅伯。我先開始,然後大衛和蓋瑞可以再補充。首先,我想說的是,我們(這是我的責任)低估了通貨膨脹的程度。因此,我們未能獲得足以抵銷前幾季通貨膨脹的價格水準。我可以向你們保證,憑藉我們強有力的定價措施以及我們現在正在做和將在 2022 年做的事情,我們將在價格方面取得積極進展。所以,我今天在電話會議上再次想告訴大家,我們理解預期通膨低於預期的情況。我們甚至假設情況可能會變得更糟,因此我們正在確保我們現在和未來的定價措施能夠應對這種情況。大衛?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Rob. So I think if you look at the numbers and where we stand or where we expect to stand at the end of the fourth quarter is that in a do-nothing scenario, which is not going to happen, in a do-nothing scenario the wraparound effect of net price inflation is probably a small tailwind in the $5 million to $10 million range. So we're certainly encouraged with what we're seeing in the pricing environment here in the fourth quarter. As you mentioned, it's about a $15 million step up from Q3, but we're certainly not satisfied.
是的。謝謝你,羅伯。所以我認為,如果你看看這些數字以及我們目前所處的位置,或者我們預計在第四季度末所處的位置,就會發現,在什麼都不做的情況下(這種情況不會發生),在什麼都不做的情況下,淨價格通脹的連鎖反應可能只是 500 萬到 1000 萬美元的小幅利好。因此,我們對第四季的價格環境感到非常鼓舞。正如您所提到的,這比第三季增加了約 1500 萬美元,但我們當然並不滿意。
As Rob mentioned, we've left some dollars on the table this year because we've underestimated inflation. And we certainly are going to be much more aggressive, and we have current plans in action to continue those price increases fairly significantly into 2022. But from a wraparound impact looking at the numbers, a floor is probably a $5 million to $10 million tailwind. And of course, we are in our pricing plans, anticipating that inflation will continue to accelerate, whether it does or not, I don't think anybody knows.
正如羅布所提到的那樣,由於我們低估了通貨膨脹,今年我們錯失了一些收益。我們肯定會採取更積極的措施,目前我們已經制定了計劃,將在 2022 年繼續大幅提高價格。但從整體影響來看,從數字上看,最低限度可能會帶來 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的利好。當然,我們在定價計畫中也考慮了通貨膨脹將繼續加速,至於通貨膨脹是否真的會加速,我想沒有人知道。
But we're anticipating that it will accelerate. And of course, we anticipate a much more significant dollar tailwind. And I appreciate your comment on the -- as it relates to recapturing the margin percentage. I would say that is our intent, and we do appreciate the math of trying to do that. You could recapture the dollars, but not recapture the percentages. But just to let you know, we are looking at that dynamic as well, and that certainly is our long-term goal.
但我們預計這一趨勢將會加速。當然,我們預期美元走強的利好因素會更顯著。我感謝您就恢復利潤率方面發表的評論。我想說,這正是我們的意圖,我們也確實理解嘗試這樣做的數學原理。你可以追回美元,但無法追回百分比。但需要說明的是,我們也在關注這種動態,而這當然也是我們的長期目標。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Great. Very clear. And then I wonder if we could just talk about a little bit more color on what you're seeing on enterprise. Good to see the green dot, little color on the magnitude of the activity there and maybe anything you could share on the type of customer or what type of work is starting to manifest itself there?
偉大的。非常清楚。然後我想問,我們能否更詳細地談談您在企業方面看到的情況?很高興看到綠點,但目前還不清楚那裡的活動規模,您能否分享一下客戶類型或正在那裡進行的工作類型?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Sure, Jeff. This is Rob. I'll start off and then Gary might add some additional color. What we're seeing right now, and especially in Americas, as we mentioned, is kind of a rebound of small to medium business and enterprise as they go back to work, refreshing their networks, their network closets. So we've seen that activity in the channel space for us beginning to pick up. And that's why we moved it from yellow to green. We're also seeing in the enterprise areas, people reconfiguring their data centers, taking the time projects they probably put on hold during the pandemic and now they're getting back to some new builds, some reconfiguration on build as they build out their hybrid cloud strategies going forward and rightsize, I guess, I would say, the current data centers that will be on-prem.
當然可以,傑夫。這是羅布。我先開始,然後加里可能會補充一些內容。正如我們之前提到的,我們現在看到的,尤其是在美洲,是中小企業和大型企業復工復產後,對網路和網路機房進行更新換代的一種反彈。所以我們看到,我們在通路領域的活動開始增加。這就是我們把它從黃色改為綠色的原因。我們也看到,在企業領域,人們正在重新配置他們的資料中心,利用疫情期間可能擱置的專案時間,現在他們正在恢復一些新的建設,對一些現有設施進行重新配置,以構建未來的混合雲戰略,並調整當前本地資料中心的規模。
So that's what really gives us confidence led by Americas, haven't seen parts of Asia, we didn't talk much about because Asia, as you know, is still being played on and off with COVID. We expect, hopefully, going into Q1 next year, Q2, that those activities that COVID would clear itself up and we could see enterprise going in the right direction there. And in Europe, we're continuing to execute on our channel strategy there to drive more and more enterprise business. But in general, corporations are spending money. They are taking care of their infrastructure now that people are getting back into the office.
所以,正是美洲地區的復甦給了我們信心,我們還沒有看到亞洲部分地區的情況,也沒有過多談論亞洲,因為正如你所知,亞洲仍然受到新冠疫情的影響。我們預計,希望到明年第一季和第二季度,受新冠疫情影響的那些活動能夠得到控制,我們可以看到企業朝著正確的方向發展。在歐洲,我們正繼續執行我們的通路策略,以推動越來越多的企業業務。但總的來說,企業都在花錢。隨著人們陸續返回辦公室,他們正在著手維護基礎設施。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
The tone of your comments, Rob, are meaningfully more positive than just a month ago, I imagine that's somewhat purposeful. But that's not my question. The -- you kind of alluded to the reality that these projects are being announced may get pushed to the right because of lack of kind of labor and materials. How does that -- logistically, what does that mean for you guys? Does it mean that orders get delayed, it's that simple? Or does the customer because of lack of supply, kind of take -- want to take delivery anyways and just warehouse things so that they don't have further delays once they get kind of brick-and-mortar down? How does that kind of logistically work? Are we just -- or do we not know yet, Rob?
羅布,你的評論語氣比一個月前明顯積極了很多,我想這多少有點刻意為之。但這並非我的問題。你剛才似乎暗示了這樣一個現實:由於缺乏勞動力和材料,這些項目可能會被推遲。從後勤角度來說,這對你們意味著什麼?是不是意味著訂單會延遲?就這麼簡單?或者,由於供應不足,客戶是否寧願收貨,並將貨物儲存起來,以免實體店開業後出現進一步的延誤?這種操作在後勤上是如何運作的?我們是不是已經……或者我們還不知道,羅布?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
No, Scott, absolutely. And I think you kind of nailed it. While we don't know exactly which sites are going to be impacted. What we are seeing is customers willing to take that inventory in some cases and warehouses, so they have it when that site does turn on so they don't lose their production slot or they don't lose their equipment to somebody else. That being said, that's more of a new phenomenon. And as I reach out to more of our large customers, more and more of them are wanting some type of program to have inventory go ahead and take it off our hands and take the responsibility of it.
不,斯科特,絕對是這樣。我覺得你說的很對。雖然我們尚不清楚具體哪些網站會受到影響。我們看到的情況是,有些客戶願意接收這些庫存和倉庫,這樣當該站點重新上線時,他們就能擁有這些庫存,從而避免失去生產名額或設備被他人搶走。也就是說,這算是比較新的現象。隨著我接觸到更多的大客戶,越來越多的人希望我們能推出某種計劃,讓供應商接手庫存,並承擔相關責任。
But it's a really dynamic situation. And even things as roofing systems, which you think would be simple have gone out to 44 weeks in lead times. So they are being stressed not by necessarily the equipment manufacturers. If I look at the lead times, yes, they've gone out, but not near as far as some of these other base building materials that they need for their sites. That being said, our business is a combination of new builds and brownfields, and we feel good about that. But some of the larger projects will experience site difficulties from time to time due to trade labor and so on.
但情況瞬息萬變。就連屋頂系統這種你認為很簡單的東西,交貨週期也延長到了 44 週。所以他們面臨的壓力未必來自設備製造商。如果從交貨週期來看,是的,這些材料已經交付了,但遠不及他們工地所需的其他一些基礎建築材料的交付週期。也就是說,我們的業務包括新建項目和棕地改造,我們對此感到滿意。但一些較大的項目會不時因勞務派遣等原因而遇到現場困難。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Okay. That's super helpful. And then in the same context, when you've missed a sale over the last quarter because of supply chain. Has there been instances where that sale has kind of gone away or somebody else has been able to supply it? Or is the entire market just so tight that the stuff just gets moved into backlog and everybody is comfortable with the fact that deliveries will just be a little late?
好的。這太有幫助了。同樣的情況下,如果你因為供應鏈問題而在上個季度錯失了一筆銷售。有沒有出現過這種情況:某種銷售管道消失了,或者其他供應商接手了這種銷售?或者說,整個市場供應非常緊張,導致貨物積壓,大家都能接受交貨稍微延遲的事實?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes. There's been spot places where we've seen somebody had to have something and somebody was willing to jump the line and maybe a competitor willing to jump the line and knock another customer out. We've been very honorable with what we've told our customers and we've not played that game. So I'd say while that's happening, it's very little. I mean the market is tight for everybody. And we've seen, without going into detail, smaller competitors and even larger competitors -- we commit.
是的。有些地方,我們看到有人急需某樣東西,於是有人願意插隊,甚至可能是競爭對手也願意插隊,從而搶走其他顧客。我們一直秉持誠信,對客戶坦誠相待,從未玩弄過這種伎倆。所以我覺得,雖然這種情況正在發生,但影響非常小。我的意思是,現在市場對所有人來說都很緊張。我們已經看到,雖然不贅述細節,但規模較小的競爭對手,甚至是規模較大的競爭對手——我們都全力以赴。
As you know, we were one of the first companies to come out and talk about this issue, and we did it around the announcement of the acquisition because we felt that was fair and honest to let you guys know exactly what we're seeing. But I don't think we're penalized any worse than anybody else, and the backlog will continue to grow. And quite honestly, people will continue to drive further visibility. And I mentioned that earlier in my discussions, I like the visibility we're getting.
如你所知,我們是最早公開談論這個問題的公司之一,我們選擇在宣布收購前後這樣做,因為我們覺得這樣做公平、誠實,可以準確地告訴大家我們所看到的情況。但我認為我們受到的懲罰並不比其他人更重,而且積壓案件還會繼續增加。坦白說,人們會繼續推動提高曝光率。我在之前的討論中也提到過,我很喜歡我們目前獲得的關注。
The industry has traditionally not shared that because they feel it's a competitive issue because we work with a lot of competitors -- to our customers and they want to make sure. But what we're finding is building those relationships and that collaborative relationship, we're able to get even a longer view into the builds and locations, which is going to help us in the future of our planning and expansion of capacity.
該行業歷來不會透露這些信息,因為他們認為這是一個競爭問題,因為我們與許多競爭對手合作——他們希望確保這一點。但我們發現,透過建立這些關係和合作關係,我們能夠對建設和選址有更長遠的了解,這將有助於我們未來的規劃和產能擴張。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Helpful. Best of luck the rest of the year. I'll pass it on.
很有幫助。祝你今年剩下的日子一切順利。我會轉達的。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.
下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 Amit Daryanani。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
I just have a few as well. [You posted] for this $40 million of net price headwind that we have in the September quarter. I think you talked about becoming $25 million in December. Just -- we feel confident that, that should be -- this should be the peak number. And as you go through '22, that number should start to become positive. Is that the right way to think about it? And kind of where do you see it's actually positive in '22?
我也有一些。[你發文說] 我們9月季將面臨4000萬美元的淨價逆風。我想你之前說過你在12月的身價會達到2500萬美元。我們相信,這應該是峰值數字。到了 2022 年,這個數字應該會開始轉正。這種思考方式正確嗎?那麼,你認為在 2022 年,這種情況會有哪些正面的面向呢?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. This is David. Absolutely confirmed that we anticipate 3Q to be the peak net price inflation in balance. And Q3's $40 million, I think it was $25 million in Q2. We anticipate inflation to stay at the same level in Q4, but pricing to ramp up about $15 million. So that imbalance should drop to $25 million for Q4. And if you look at just pure wraparound effect, it would be a $10 million imbalance in Q1 of 2022. But of course, that does not contemplate any additional pricing actions, and we would anticipate to get to a point where those 2 elements offset one another, sometimes in the first quarter.
是的。這是大衛。我們完全確認,預計第三季將是資產負債表淨價格通膨的高峰。第三季是 4000 萬美元,我記得第二季是 2500 萬美元。我們預計第四季通膨將保持在同一水平,但價格將上漲約 1500 萬美元。因此,第四季這一不平衡狀況應該會降至2500萬美元。如果只看純粹的連鎖效應,2022 年第一季就會出現 1,000 萬美元的不平衡。當然,這並沒有考慮到任何額外的定價措施,我們預計這兩個因素會相互抵消,有時在第一季就會發生。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Perfect. And then if I can just kind of shift gears a little bit. And when I think about this market environment chart -- slide that you folks have, it seems to us at least that some of the key verticals are starting to inflect higher. I think Facebook on the hyperscale side, talked about CapEx being up 65% next year in '22. And then enterprise IT spend, I think, is equally starting to pick up at the bigger enterprise companies. I guess all the data would suggest that growth, if you're levered to data center, should accelerate and be better in '22 versus '21. I wonder if you'd agree with that broadly and if not, what are the offsets that we should consider with that statement?
完美的。然後,如果我能稍微調整一下思路就好了。當我思考你們提供的這張市場環境圖表時,至少在我們看來,一些關鍵垂直領域開始出現上升趨勢。我認為Facebook在超大規模方面曾表示,2022年資本支出將成長65%。我認為,大型企業在企業 IT 的支出也同樣開始成長。我想所有數據都表明,如果你與資料中心有聯繫,那麼2022年的成長速度應該會比2021年更快、更好。我想知道您是否大致同意這種說法,如果不同意,我們應該考慮哪些因素來修正這種說法?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Yes, I would absolutely agree with what you just said. And then it kind of falls in line with what we're saying about enterprise. And enterprise should be stronger next year as we began to see the things pick up and continue to grow our channel business. As it relates to -- and we get asked this all the time and that -- what's happening is this -- there's always been a build and fill situation where we have this absorption going on and what's different, why is it different now?
是的,我完全同意你剛才說的話。這樣就和我們所說的企業理念不謀而合了。隨著業務開始好轉,明年企業業務應該會更加強勁,我們的通路業務也將持續成長。至於──我們常被問到這個問題──現在的情況是──一直以來都存在著建設和填充的情況,我們一直在進行這種吸收,那麼現在有什麼不同,為什麼現在的情況不同了呢?
You're absolutely right, colo and hyperscalers, more money is being poured into that. The utilization rates are high. What's going to be the limiting factor for the growth, not necessarily orders growth, but growth on the sales side and delivery is going to be that material and labor shortages on probably their end.
你說得完全正確,託管資料中心和超大規模資料中心營運商正在投入更多資金。利用率很高。限製成長的因素,不一定是訂單成長,而是銷售和交付方面的成長,很可能是他們那邊的材料和勞動力短缺。
But at the end of the day, the appetite as far as I can see out and we typically have 18 to 24 months look ahead on the pipeline and things like that, looks very robust. And that's why I'm very bullish right now that get these supply issues behind us, which are a big nuisance for all of us. And get moving forward, the market needs more critical data centers.
但歸根結底,就我目前所見,市場需求非常強勁,我們通常會對未來 18 到 24 個月的專案儲備等進行展望。正因如此,我現在非常看好市場前景,相信這些供應問題能夠盡快解決,這些問題對我們所有人來說都是一個很大的麻煩。繼續前進,市場需要更多關鍵資料中心。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I promise you no more price cost questions. So I think that's been vetted quite well. So the backlog of $40 million of growth exit the year, I mean just the simple math gets you double-digit growth of your 2021 revenue base, which I know is not the right way to think about it, but I'll ask the question anyway. Does that imply double-digit growth in 2022, just from the backlog? And then within that, are we seeing any change in China? Because the tech companies are getting defenestrated in China. So just curious if that's having any impact on their CapEx plans or capacity plans in any way?
我保證不會再有價格方面的問題。所以我覺得這件事已經經過了相當充分的審查。因此,積壓的 4000 萬美元增長將在今年結束,我的意思是,簡單的計算就能使你的 2021 年收入基礎實現兩位數的增長,我知道這不是正確的思考方式,但我還是要問這個問題。這是否意味著僅靠積壓訂單,2022 年就能達到兩位數的成長?那麼,在中國,我們是否看到了任何變化?因為中國科技公司正遭受重創。所以,我只是好奇這是否會對他們的資本支出計劃或產能計劃產生任何影響?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Nigel, this is Rob. I'll start up here. Well, we're seeing a robust backlog. Again, a lot of 2022 is going to be dependent on supply and site readiness and capability. So not ready to commit on a 2022 number. But looking at our backlog and the orders growth, it certainly would imply a robust 2022, assuming we can deliver. China is -- moving to China, a lot of stuff in the news about what's going on with China, how they're cracking down on some of the hyperscale activities. Certainly, the power outages because of the coal issues which has not been affecting us currently right now because we're deemed essential, and we continue to run as we provide.
奈傑爾,我是羅布。我先從這裡開始。嗯,我們看到積壓訂單很多。同樣,2022 年的許多事情都將取決於供應、場地準備和能力。所以目前還無法確定2022年的具體數字。但從我們的積壓訂單和訂單成長來看,假設我們能夠按時交付,這無疑預示著 2022 年將是一個強勁的年份。中國——移居中國,新聞裡有很多關於中國正在發生的事情,以及他們如何打擊一些超大規模的活動。當然,由於煤炭問題導致的停電目前還沒有影響到我們,因為我們被認為是必不可少的,我們將繼續運作並提供服務。
It is a dynamic environment over there. And as you know, when China decides to do something and put a stimulus in like they did in the beginning of the year for 5G growth and some other things, we do see kind of a higher-than-average growth. But in general, we feel good about our position, our focus on product development, being local there and continue to grow our share there.
那裡的環境充滿活力。如你所知,當中國決定採取一些措施,例如像今年年初那樣刺激 5G 發展和其他一些項目時,我們確實會看到高於平均的成長。但總的來說,我們對自身地位、對產品開發的專注、在當地紮根以及繼續擴大市場份額感到滿意。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Great. And then my follow-on is on the EMEA margins. 19% pretty extraordinary in the current environment. And you also had, I think, a 20% handle last quarter. So just curious, number one, what's driving that margin strength? And secondly, are we sort of moving to a new plateau in Europe?
偉大的。接下來,我將關注歐洲、中東和非洲地區的利潤率。在目前環境下,19%這個數字相當驚人。而且,我認為,你上個季度的市佔率也達到了 20%。所以,首先,我很好奇是什麼因素推動了這種利潤率的強勁成長?其次,歐洲是否正在邁向一個新的發展階段?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. This is David. So number one, thank you for recognizing that. I would say there's 2 things that are driving the enhancements and margins we think this year. One is definitely centered on the fixed cost constant philosophy. So we continue to not only keep fixed cost constant in EMEA, but we've actually been able to take costs down as it relates to the investment in some of the restructuring. So we certainly see a benefit there from the leverage.
是的。這是大衛。首先,感謝你意識到這一點。我認為今年推動業績提升和利潤成長的因素有兩個。其中一種觀點顯然是以固定成本不變的理念為中心。因此,我們不僅繼續保持 EMEA 地區的固定成本不變,而且實際上還能夠降低與一些重組投資相關的成本。因此,我們確實看到了槓桿作用帶來的好處。
So with sales up as significant as they are there. And our anticipation for the full year is that they should be in that upper teens sales growth. We certainly are benefiting from that fixed cost leverage. That's probably the primary driver. I mentioned on the call that the supply chain environment in EMEA probably has been a little less disruptive than the other 2 regions, but they still are negative from a contribution margin perspective as it relates to net price cost. I would say most of the lift we've seen this year is because of the fixed cost dynamic.
所以,銷售額確實大幅成長。我們預計全年銷售額成長率將達到兩位數以上。我們確實從這種固定成本槓桿中受益匪淺。這很可能是主要原因。我在電話會議上提到,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的供應鏈環境可能比其他兩個地區受到的干擾要小一些,但從淨價成本的貢獻毛利角度來看,它們仍然是負值。我認為今年我們看到的大部分成長都是由於固定成本的動態變化所造成的。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Lance Vitanza with Cowen.
下一個問題來自考恩公司的蘭斯·維坦扎。
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
I had a couple of questions. The first actually is back on the supply chain. But I'm just trying to understand the accelerating order growth that you saw, which was quite noticeable to 17% year-on-year. How much of that is, would we say organic? Or is that just reflecting the price increases that you're putting in place? I'm just trying to get a sense for, is volume picking up as well, at least from a demand perspective? I know, obviously, there are issues with respect to your ability to fulfill.
我有幾個問題。第一款產品實際上已經重新回到供應鏈中。但我只是想了解您看到的訂單成長加速現象,這種成長非常明顯,比去年同期成長了 17%。其中有多少算是有機產品呢?或者這只是反映了你們即將實施的價格上漲?我只是想了解一下,銷售量是否也在上升,至少從需求的角度來看是這樣?我知道,很顯然,你在履行職責方面存在一些問題。
And then the next question is, should we expect the above-average inventory build that we saw in the third quarter? How long does that persist? Is that sort of through the first half of '22 as well? And is the kind of $40 million to $45 million of incremental build per quarter. Is that a good run rate to model? Or is that -- or is there something else we should be thinking about there?
那麼下一個問題是,我們是否應該預期會出現像第三季那樣高於平均的庫存成長?這種情況會持續多久?這種情況在 2022 年上半年也是如此嗎?而且,每季新增建設資金約 4,000 萬至 4,500 萬美元。這個運行率適合建模嗎?或者說——或者說,我們還應該考慮其他因素?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Lance, thanks for the question. This is Rob. I'll take the first half, and I'll give David the second half on that. As it relates to the growth, and I think we talked last time when we announced the E+ I acquisition, we're posting up around 12% orders growth. We did see an acceleration. I would say it's hard to kind of break out, I'd say, right now, the price and that certainly, there's some price in there, but we're seeing a strong strength in demand. Part of that is people are placing POs as we are as a company, a little further ahead in the future so that they make sure they get in line. But in general, the market is pretty robust. As you see -- begin to see the comment that someone made earlier around the CapEx that the hyperscalers and colo companies are spending. So certainly, there's some price in there for sure, but there's also just a strong underlying growth in the market. David, second half?
蘭斯,謝謝你的提問。這是羅布。前半部我來做,後半部給大衛。關於成長方面,我想我們上次宣布E+的時候也談過。收購完成後,我們的訂單成長率約為 12%。我們確實看到了加速成長。我認為現在很難說價格有什麼變化,當然,價格因素確實存在,但我們看到需求非常強勁。部分原因是人們像我們公司一樣,提前一段時間下訂單,以確保他們能夠按計劃進行。但整體而言,市場相當穩健。正如你所看到的——開始理解之前有人對超大規模資料中心和託管公司在資本支出方面所做的評論。所以,當然,其中肯定存在一些價格因素,但市場本身也存在強勁的潛在成長。大衛,下半場?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Rob, and thanks for the question, Lance. So as it relates to inventory, you're absolutely right. So if you look at year-to-date inventory, it's probably up $130 million from the end of last year and with approximately $40 million build in the quarter. It's not unusual for us to build inventory during the year and then have that come down in the fourth quarter based on what is usually a very strong sales quarter. I think we're going to see a little bit of that dynamic this year, but probably a little muted. I would anticipate year-end inventory declining somewhat, but very much dependent upon the dynamic out there as it relates to the parts shortage.
是的。謝謝羅布,也謝謝你的提問,蘭斯。所以就庫存而言,你的說法完全正確。因此,如果查看今年迄今為止的庫存,可能比去年年底增加了 1.3 億美元,其中本季新增庫存約為 4,000 萬美元。我們通常會在一年中增加庫存,然後在第四季度根據通常非常強勁的銷售情況來減少庫存。我認為今年我們會看到一些類似的動態,但可能程度會比較緩和。我預計年底庫存會略有下降,但這很大程度取決於零件短缺的市場動態。
We certainly are not artificially constraining ourselves to hit any internal inventory days or turnover targets. If we can find the parts, we're making the right business decision, and we'll buy the parts, and we'll park in an inventory to protect delivery for 2022. With that said, we're very mindful of the impact that inventory has on free cash flow, a very important metric for us, and we are implementing actions to optimize that inventory level. So I would anticipate a dip in Q1, but we could see an additional build -- I'm sorry, a dip in Q4, and we could see an additional build as we go through the first half of next year.
我們當然不會人為地限制自己去達到任何內部庫存週轉天數或週轉目標。如果我們能找到所需的零件,我們就做出了正確的商業決策,我們會購買這些零件,並將其存放在庫存中,以確保 2022 年的交付。儘管如此,我們非常重視庫存對自由現金流的影響,自由現金流對我們來說是一個非常重要的指標,我們正在採取措施來優化庫存水準。所以我預計第一季會下滑,但我們可能會看到進一步成長——抱歉,是第四季下滑,而且隨著明年上半年的到來,我們可能會看到進一步成長。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
So I just have ...
所以我就只有…
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Nicole, it seems like your name is coming through some variation also.
妮可,你的名字似乎也以某種變體形式出現過。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Always. I don't even try anymore. Well, I guess maybe starting with -- I do have a follow-up on price cost, if you don't mind. When you were answering Jeff's question about the floor on pricing, the $5 million to $10 million -- or price cost, the $5 million to $10 million for 2022. Does that include the pricing actions that you've taken to date? I assume it does, but I just wanted to check on that.
總是。我連嘗試都不想再試了。嗯,我想或許可以先從——如果您不介意的話,我還有一個關於價格成本的後續問題。當你回答 Jeff 關於價格底線的問題時,2022 年的價格成本是 500 萬到 1000 萬美元。這是否包括您迄今為止採取的價格調整措施?我猜應該是可以的,但我還是想確認一下。
And then I guess like with the view that 3Q is the worst and that's behind you, is that based on your view that inflation kind of gets worse in the fourth quarter? Or is that assuming normal spot rates inflation is kind of peaking. Just wanted to understand the philosophy behind that.
然後,我猜你認為第三季是最糟糕的,而且已經過去了,這是基於你認為通膨會在第四季惡化的觀點嗎?或者說,這是假設正常即期匯率通膨已經接近高峰。我只是想了解背後的理念。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. This is David. So I'll grasp your second question first. So our assumption is that inflation in Q4 is consistent with inflation in Q3. And if you want to put a specific number to it, I think everybody at some point, will be able to triangulate all these numbers on a quarterly basis. But we're assuming $55 million of year-over-year gross inflation in Q4. That was the same number that we saw in Q3. So we don't anticipate that inflation gets any better or worse in Q4 versus Q3, and that's consistent with what we've seen so far in the month of October.
是的。這是大衛。那我先回答你的第二個問題。因此,我們的假設是第四季的通貨膨脹率與第三季的通貨膨脹率一致。如果你想給出一個具體的數字,我認為每個人遲早都能按季度對所有這些數字進行三角驗證。但我們假設第四季年比毛通膨率為 5,500 萬美元。這個數字和我們第三季看到的數字一樣。因此,我們預期第四季的通膨情況不會比第三季好轉或惡化,這與我們十月至今看到的情況一致。
As it relates to the wraparound effect for 2022, it's a little bit of a math exercise. So that's just looking at -- if you look at that $55 million inflation number we see in Q4, if you wrap that around for the full year, based on what we've seen in 2022, you'll end up with an additional $60 million headwind for inflation. If you do the same thing for pricing, and so to your point, that would only include actions that we see in the P&L in Q4 2021. So that's about $30 million. if you wrap that around, you get a $65 million tailwind for pricing. And that's the $5 million to $10 million that we referenced. It's kind of a pure math exercise. Just to give comfort that, that's really the floor that we would see on a base case. But of course, that does not contemplate pricing actions that we've taken in Q4 that have not been recognized in the P&L yet. It also assumes that inflation does not get worse. But we thought that would just be kind of a helpful gauge for what would a floor number would be.
至於 2022 年的環繞效應,這有點像數學題。所以,我們來看看——如果你看一下我們在第四季度看到的 5500 萬美元的通膨數字,如果你把這個數字推算到全年,根據我們在 2022 年看到的情況,你最終會發現通膨還會帶來額外的 6000 萬美元的阻力。如果你對定價也採取同樣的做法,那麼正如你所說,那隻會包括我們在 2021 年第四季損益表中看到的那些操作。所以大概是3000萬美元。如果把這些因素考慮進去,就能為定價帶來 6,500 萬美元的利多。這就是我們之前提到的 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。這其實是一個純粹的數學練習。需要說明的是,這確實是我們在基本情況下會看到的最低水平。當然,這並沒有考慮到我們在第四季採取的、尚未計入損益表的定價措施。它還假設通貨膨脹不會惡化。但我們認為這可以作為判斷樓層數的一個參考指標。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
That is super helpful. Thank you for walking me through that. So you talked about the revised outlook for EMEA for the full year, I guess any change to the way you're thinking about North America or Asia Pacific?
這太有幫助了。謝謝你耐心地跟我講解。您剛剛談到了對 EMEA 地區全年業績的修訂展望,我想問一下您對北美或亞太地區的看法是否有所改變?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
This is David, I will start, and Rob and Gary can speak. So I would say, if you look at the dynamics of both pricing and inflation for 2021, Americas has certainly been impacted more than the other 2 regions. And once again ...
我是大衛,我先開始,羅布和蓋瑞可以發言。因此,我認為,如果你觀察 2021 年的價格和通貨膨脹動態,美洲受到的影響肯定比其他兩個地區更大。再一次…
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
I'm sorry, David, I meant revenue growth, not price cost, sorry.
對不起,大衛,我指的是收入成長,不是價格成本,抱歉。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Nicole. I'll take that. From a revenue growth perspective, EMEA has had some, I would say, very good tailwinds basically produced by our -- what we call our global accounts team that we've pulled together. So we've seen an aggressive build-out across Europe partially due to sovereignty, partially due to some of the Brexit activities early on and just everyone wanting data centers. So you're seeing a tremendous amount of bills happening in Europe as we speak today. That being said, the outlook as we look and look at our pipeline, as I mentioned, we've got pretty good views. I expect robust growth to be happening really around the globe.
妮可。我接受。從營收成長的角度來看,EMEA 地區獲得了一些非常好的順風,這主要歸功於我們組建的全球客戶團隊。因此,我們看到歐洲各地積極建立資料中心,部分原因是出於主權考慮,部分原因是英國脫歐早期的一些活動,還有一部分原因是每個人都想要資料中心。所以,就在我們說話的今天,歐洲正在推出大量的法案。也就是說,正如我之前提到的,當我們審視我們的產品線時,前景相當樂觀。我預計全球範圍內都將強勁成長。
I expect Americas, a lot of people think Americas is done and built out, that is not the case. There's more data centers needed than we currently have today. And I think you'll see an acceleration of growth in 2022 for that, both colo and hyperscale and as enterprise recovers. And then if you look at Asia, Southeast Asia, specifically, they've been -- COVID has really slowed them down from the ability to build, deliver projects. So I think when that gets unlocked, you'll see a nice set of growth there. And then we commented on China earlier. I can't -- I wish I had a better crystal ball to tell exactly what was going to happen over there, but we continue to see that as a good market for us.
我認為美洲地區,很多人認為美洲地區已經建成,但事實並非如此。我們需要比現在更多的資料中心。我認為,隨著企業復甦,2022 年資料中心和超大規模資料中心都將加速成長。然後,如果你看看亞洲,特別是東南亞,你會發現新冠疫情確實減緩了他們建造和交付專案的能力。所以我認為,一旦這項功能解鎖,就會出現可觀的成長。我們之前也評論過中國。我無法預測——我希望我能有一個更好的水晶球來準確預測那邊會發生什麼,但我們仍然認為那對我們來說是一個很好的市場。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
So the first on the E+ I acquisition, you spoke to positive customer feedback that you're receiving. Can you elaborate a bit more on what you're hearing from customers? And I think some of the value proposition is being able to sell a broader set of products, maybe you can talk specifically to what you're hearing from customers on your ability to provide a broader set of solutions?
所以,E+上的第一個在收購過程中,您提到了您收到的正面的客戶回饋。您能否詳細說明一下您從客戶那裡聽到的回饋?我認為部分價值主張在於能夠銷售更廣泛的產品,也許您可以具體談談您從客戶那裡聽到的關於您提供更廣泛的解決方案的能力的反饋?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Sure, Mark. This is Rob. Thanks for the question. Yes, in general, the excitement is it actually fills out the portfolio. While we've talked about it in the past that switchgear wasn't necessarily something we had to have. as the systems get more tightly integrated as we put the controls and drive efficiency, modularity, which we've been talking about for a while, these modular integrated data center is becoming more and more part of it. So they're excited the fact that a company of Vertiv size with our service organization, which E+ I didn't have a lot of service organization, we can really kind of complete that entire deal for them.
當然可以,馬克。這是羅布。謝謝你的提問。是的,總的來說,令人興奮的是它實際上豐富了投資組合。雖然我們過去也討論過,開關設備並不是我們必須擁有的東西。隨著系統整合度的提高,控制和驅動效率、模組化(我們已經談論了一段時間了)也越來越緊密,這些模組化整合資料中心正成為其中越來越重要的一部分。所以他們很高興像Vertiv這樣規模的公司,以及我們E+的服務機構。我當時沒有太多服務方面的組織,但我們真的可以為他們完成整個交易。
The bus bar category was something that we didn't really participate much in, and E+ I is a global leader in providing bus bar. And the excitement, I would say, when we talk to a lot of the global colos and hyperscale is the fact that we'll help accelerate and bring these products to all places in the world. E+ I haven't really been very present at all. They don't have a factory in India in China or rest of Asia. So the fact that they can now get global consistency, global products and the modularity side of it is a big one.
公車站酒吧這個類別我們其實參與得不多,而E+I 是母線槽供應商中的全球領導者。我想說,當我們與許多全球託管和超大規模資料中心進行交流時,最令人興奮的是,我們將幫助加速並將這些產品推廣到世界各地。E+我其實一直都不太在場。他們在印度、中國或亞洲其他地區都沒有工廠。因此,他們現在可以獲得全球一致性、全球產品以及模組化方面的優勢,這意義重大。
E+ I has done just an incredible job in Europe, providing modular power skids. They've got a new facility opened in South Carolina, which have been receiving orders for modular. So it gives us that capability that in some areas we do ourselves like, for example, in Europe, Croatia. But in areas in the U.S., we would sub that out maybe to a third party and have them assemble our equipment and pull that together. Now we'll have that in-house capability and that core thing. So in general, it wasn't anything to do with the exception of -E+ I is a great company. Now it's even better with the backing of Vertiv services and Vertiv sales and Vertiv's global reach.
E+I 在歐洲做得非常出色,提供了模組化動力撬裝設備。他們在南卡羅來納州開設了一家新工廠,並已開始收到模組化產品的訂單。因此,它賦予了我們在某些領域自主開展工作的能力,例如在歐洲的克羅埃西亞。但在美國的一些地區,我們可能會將這項工作外包給第三方,讓他們組裝我們的設備並完成組裝。現在我們將擁有內部能力和核心技術。所以總的來說,除了-E+之外,其他都無關緊要。這是一家很棒的公司。現在有了 Vertiv 的服務、銷售和全球影響力的支持,情況就更好了。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
That's helpful. And the second question was on supply chain and maybe a two-part question there. First in terms of supply chain compared to when you gave the business update in September, is it incrementally better, incrementally worse? Any change over the last month or so? And then second part is, you're expecting supply chain to be tight through at least the first half of 2022, can you elaborate on what you're hearing from your suppliers? What's most difficult to procure and what's behind that comment around supply chain being tight through first half next year?
那很有幫助。第二個問題是關於供應鏈的,可能是包含兩個部分的問題。首先,就供應鏈而言,與您在 9 月發佈業務更新報告時相比,情況是略有改善還是略有惡化?過去一個月左右有什麼變化嗎?其次,您預期供應鏈至少在 2022 年上半年都會比較緊張,您能否詳細說明您從供應商那裡了解到的情況?最難採購的是什麼?關於明年上半年供應鏈緊張的說法背後又有什麼意義?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Sure. And this is an ever-changing environment. So we have been speaking in the past about fan situations. Our engineering teams work diligently to qualify additional fan manufacturers to bring into our build and bring into our products. So some of the things have eased up and actually beginning to get better as we bring some new suppliers on. I would say that still neutral on where we talked about chips, working with our chip manufacturers and that capacity coming online end of the year coming into Q1, Q2. Again, mixed bag on what people are saying in the market. But as we talk to our suppliers there, they feel like that they'll have the capacity beginning to come on middle to the end of Q2 from that.
當然。這是一個瞬息萬變的環境。我們之前一直在討論粉絲的情況。我們的工程團隊努力工作,對其他風扇製造商進行資格審核,以便將其引入我們的生產和產品中。隨著我們引入一些新的供應商,一些問題已經緩解,實際上也開始好轉了。我認為,對於我們之前討論的晶片問題,與晶片製造商的合作,以及年底到第一季、第二季即將投產的產能,我仍然持中立態度。市場上的輿論依然褒貶不一。但當我們與那裡的供應商溝通後,他們認為產能將從第二季中後期開始逐步恢復。
As we think about breakers, which we all use, breakers, and there's a few circuit breaker manufacturers on a global basis, that seems to have gotten worse from a supply perspective versus when we talked before, I think -- I'm not sure that it's bottomed out, but I think it probably is getting close to that from a lead time going out.
當我們想到斷路器時,我們都在使用斷路器,全球範圍內也只有幾家斷路器製造商,從供應角度來看,情況似乎比我們之前討論時更糟了,我認為——我不確定它是否已經觸底,但從交貨週期來看,我認為它可能已經接近觸底了。
And then some of the things that maybe are getting better, but still spotty is the IGBTs, which we've talked about in the past and some of that was just due to the fact that COVID was affecting some of the factories in Vietnam and other parts of the world, and we'll see them coming back online. So in general, maybe a few parts and a little more detail here probably one of a few parts getting a little bit worse from a lead time perspective and some things improving. And, again, our thoughts are, while we don't have a perfect crystal ball if all the things were -- being told from the supply base, things should begin to get better for the second half, which we talked about for next year.
還有一些方面可能正在好轉,但仍然不穩定,例如 IGBT,我們以前也討論過這個問題,部分原因是 COVID-19 影響了越南和世界其他地區的一些工廠,我們將會看到它們重新上線。所以總的來說,可能有些部分和一些細節方面,從交貨時間的角度來看,可能有些部分的情況有所惡化,而有些方面則有所改善。而且,我們再次認為,雖然我們沒有完美的水晶球來預測所有事情是否都如供應商所說,但下半年情況應該會開始好轉,我們之前也討論過明年的情況。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Thanks for answering a lot of questions, but how have your win rates on new projects trended year-to-date, particularly given capacity constraints? And any quantification you can give around the benefit from new products and production?
感謝您回答了這麼多問題,但考慮到產能限制,您今年迄今為止新項目的中標率趨勢如何?您能否提供一些關於新產品和生產帶來的效益的量化數據?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
I'll start with second one first, and then Gary can comment a little bit about some of the win rates. But I'll tell you that we're very excited about some of the new products that we've talked about in the past that have launched, that have been received quite well. One area that I've been excited about is our thermal managing area where we continue to be a world leader and the global supplier of that. The dynamics of changing of what people want to use in the data center.
我先從第二個開始,然後加里可以對一些勝率發表一些評論。但我可以告訴你們,我們對過去討論過的一些已經上市的新產品感到非常興奮,這些產品也受到了很好的反響。我一直很興奮的一個領域是我們的熱管理領域,我們在這個領域繼續保持世界領先地位,並且是全球領先的供應商。資料中心使用者需求的變化動態。
While a lot of people are staying away from water, we have a really good system that is waterless, very efficient that helps them drive towards their carbon-neutral platform. That would be one example that we talked about in the past, and we've seen a better then expected uptick of that. So people are liking the innovation, we're liking what we're bringing out.
雖然很多人都在避免用水,但我們有一個非常好的無水系統,非常高效,可以幫助他們朝著碳中和的目標邁進。這是我們過去討論過的一個例子,而且我們已經看到這種情況比預期的要好得多。所以人們喜歡這種創新,我們也喜歡我們推出的產品。
I would say in the channel side of things as well, the solutions that we've been bringing to the channel, whether it's first in some of the lithium-ion battery products, our Geist, kind of our award-winning power distribution product line, has had several launches that have picked up. So in general, I guess, I am more than thrilled with what we've delivered so far, and really excited as Dave mentioned, Cote. We continue to pull gas on the fire for innovation, and we'll continue to deliver those products, both in channel and in the colo, hyperscale and enterprise base. Gary?
我也想說,在通路方面,我們為通路帶來的解決方案,無論是一些鋰離子電池產品的首創,還是我們屢獲殊榮的配電產品線 Geist,都已經推出過幾次,並且都取得了成功。總的來說,我對我們目前的成果非常滿意,而且正如戴夫所提到的那樣,科特,我真的非常興奮。我們將繼續加強創新力度,並將繼續向通路、託管、超大規模和企業級客戶交付這些產品。加里?
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Andrew, it's Gary. So I think in terms of your first question, the 2 things we do watch clearly are how is the pipeline trending and then what is our win rate by product line and by region. And for the most part, pretty good visibility into both of those. Pipeline continues to accelerate, particularly if I look at where we sit today versus even a year ago at this time. And then the win rates are also worst case, flat, maybe even a little bit better in some areas and largely due to the new product introductions that Rob talked about. So those are very much tied hand in hand. So for where we sit today, I think the order rate is certainly commensurate with pipeline activity increasing as well as win rates probably even inching up versus what we would have seen a year ago.
安德魯,我是加里。所以,關於你的第一個問題,我認為我們重點關注的兩件事是銷售管道的趨勢,以及我們按產品線和地區劃分的成交率。而且在大多數情況下,這兩方面都有相當不錯的可見度。管道構建持續加速,尤其是當我對比我們目前的情況和一年前同期的情況時,這種加速尤為明顯。而且,勝率在最壞的情況下也持平,甚至在某些方面可能略有提高,這主要歸功於羅布提到的新產品推出。所以這兩者之間有著非常緊密的連結。所以就目前的情況來看,我認為訂單率肯定與銷售通路活動的增加相符,而且成交率可能比一年前略有上升。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Great. And just maybe to build on this answer, as you talk about, I think people brought it up, the industry perhaps even inflecting into '22. What are we -- we're hearing a lot of stuff, right? You hear hyperscalers sort of starting to come up with proprietary technology. I think a couple of years ago, 3M was highlighting, it's -- on proprietary liquid for cooling, I'm not sure what happened there. There's talk about things sort of shifting from edge to the cloud and from cloud to the edge. Just big picture, what are the big themes and new exciting stuff on the horizon? And how are you guys positioned if sort of can take a longer-term view?
偉大的。或許可以以此答案為基礎,正如你所說,我認為有人提到了這一點,這個行業甚至可能影響到 2022 年。我們聽到了很多事情,對吧?你聽說超大規模資料中心營運商開始研發專有技術。我記得幾年前,3M 曾重點推廣其專有的冷卻液,我不確定後來發生了什麼事。有人說,事情正在從邊緣轉移,以及從雲端轉移到邊緣。從宏觀角度來看,有哪些重要的主題和令人興奮的新事物即將出現?那麼,如果從長遠角度來看,你們的定位是什麼?
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Great question. And a lot of people read into hyperscalers and what they're doing. And certainly, one of the areas that the hyperscalers have spent time and innovation on is around the servers themselves, the servers, the storage and doing a lot of that development themselves, doing their own chips. Several have announced that. As it relates to infrastructure, we do a lot of collaboration with them. there's certainly hyperscalers, some want things down exactly the way they want them. And so we're a collaborator or provider using our IP and in some cases, a mixture of joint IP, but for the most part, our IP.
問得好。很多人都在研究超大規模資料中心及其運作方式。當然,超大規模資料中心營運商投入時間和精力進行創新的一個領域就是伺服器本身,包括伺服器、存儲,他們自己進行了很多研發工作,製造自己的晶片。已有數人宣布了這一點。在基礎設施方面,我們與他們進行了許多合作。當然,也存在超大規模資料中心,有些資料中心希望一切都按照他們的意願進行。因此,我們作為合作者或提供者,使用我們的智慧財產權,在某些情況下,使用聯合智慧財產權,但大多數情況下,使用我們的智慧財產權。
So we don't see them going in a big way into our space as it relates to large power, large thermal, but we do see them influencing our Vertiv product development as we go forward from that perspective. As it relates to technologies which you're referring to with 3M is really their 2-phase immersion cooling fluid that they've talked about, and we see that really originating in bitcoin operations where there's really high-density, super high density servers and immersion cooling is just yet another way to take the heat out in a high-density situation. If you think about the landscape, it will continue to evolve.
因此,我們認為它們不會大規模地進入我們這個與高功率、大熱相關的領域,但從這個角度來看,我們確實看到它們會影響我們 Vertiv 的產品開發。至於你提到的 3M 技術,實際上是他們一直在談論的雙相浸沒式冷卻液,我們看到它實際上起源於比特幣運營,那裡有非常高密度、超高密度的伺服器,而浸沒式冷卻只是在高密度情況下散熱的另一種方法。想想看,地形景觀會不斷演變。
And while we're involved with immersion cooling, and I think I've talked about this before with the single Phase III -- II Phase, we're involved in both of those as part of our R&D, and we're deploying and we have partners there. I think if you think about where the industry will continue to change and evolve is one of our sweet spots, and that's the thermal, continue to whether it's immersion, whether it's cold plates and some cooling at the chip level, all those things Vertiv's engaged with and very forward thinking on things that are going to be 2 to 3 years out. So we feel good about that.
雖然我們參與了浸沒式冷卻技術,而且我想我以前也談到過第三階段和第二階段,我們參與了這兩個階段的研發工作,我們正在部署這些技術,並且我們在那裡有合作夥伴。我認為,如果你思考一下產業將如何繼續變化和發展,你會發現這是我們的優勢領域之一,那就是散熱,無論是浸沒式散熱、冷板散熱還是晶片級散熱,Vertiv 都參與其中,並且對未來 2 到 3 年的發展方向有著非常前瞻性的思考。所以我們對此感到很滿意。
The other area that I think you'll see a focus on is generators, right? Generators is an area that creates a lot of concern and they're not looked upon as favorable for siding and so forth. So maybe alternate ways of doing tighter integration with renewables and even things such as fuel cells, which I wouldn't have thought in my lifetime would become -- began to become more mainstay. But with fuel cells and solar and wind and battery storage, those are some of the things, I think if you look at the future, they have been talked about by a lot of the hyperscalers and colos and certainly, Vertiv with its increased R&D budgets are participating in collaboration and making sure we have a place in that game.
我認為另一個值得關注的領域是發電機,對吧?發電機是一個令人擔憂的領域,人們並不認為它們適合用於外牆等用途。因此,或許可以採用其他方式,例如更緊密地整合再生能源,甚至像燃料電池這樣的技術(在我有生之年我從未想過這些技術會成為主流),開始變得更加普遍。但燃料電池、太陽能、風能和電池儲能,這些都是未來發展的方向,我認為,如果你展望未來,許多超大規模資料中心營運商和託管資料中心都在討論這些技術,當然,Vertiv 也增加了研發預算,參與合作,確保我們在這個領域佔有一席之地。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.
(操作員說明)您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Just looking -- maybe this is just parsing the numbers a little bit too much. But when you look at the numbers we were assuming for December contribution from the E+ I deal and we multiply those by 12, we got pretty close to your guidance for that for '22. When we look at the numbers you're giving now on kind of November and December, taking those 2 months and then annualizing them? I get to kind of numbers that are significantly below what you had guided to. Any seasonality around these numbers that 1 month isn't equal kind of to the other as we get towards the end of the year, just seems like the contribution you're now forecasting is just a little bit light of what we were expecting around year-end or maybe they're having supply chain issues as well?
只是看看而已——也許我對這些數字的解讀有點過度了。但當你看一下我們之前對12月份E+貢獻的假設數據時,你會發現我負責處理,然後我們把這些乘以 12,我們得到的結果與你對 2022 年的指導意見非常接近。當我們看一下您現在提供的11月和12月的數據,然後把這兩個月的數據乘以年化值呢?我得到的數字遠低於你預期的目標。這些數據是否有季節性因素,導致接近年底時每個月的數據都不相等?這似乎表明,您現在預測的貢獻比我們預期的年底貢獻略低,或者他們也遇到了供應鏈問題?
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Gary John Niederpruem - Chief Strategy & Development Officer
Steve, it's Gary. So I think there's probably a little bit of all of that, what you just said. First and foremost is probably what Rob's comments earlier alluded to in terms of site readiness. So whether that is literally getting concrete forward for some of these new sites and/or having trade labor on the other hand to be able to receive it in invoices in time. So there are some things that we're probably going to ship at the end of December that most likely are going to push to January. So there's certainly a site readiness issue would be one of them. There's a little bit of supply chain and there are no different than what we're speaking about to Rob mentioned electronic parts a few times, so they're not immune to that. So there's a little bit of that. And then maybe third is there's a little bit of seasonality, but I think most of it is really just chalked up to primarily site readiness with a little bit of the supply chain constraints.
史蒂夫,我是加里。所以我覺得你剛才說的那些因素可能都有一點。首先也是最重要的,可能就是羅布之前提到的網站準備。所以,無論是指推動這些新工地的建設,或是指及時收到貨款,都需要有勞力投入。因此,我們原計劃在 12 月底發貨的一些產品,很可能會推遲到 1 月發貨。所以,場地準備狀況問題肯定是其中之一。供應鏈方面也存在一些問題,這和我們正在討論的羅布多次提到的電子元件沒什麼不同,所以它們也無法倖免。所以這方面有點影響。第三,可能存在一些季節性因素,但我認為大部分原因實際上只是場地準備以及供應鏈限制。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Okay. So we look out like the $570 million, $140 million for next year, is that still intact? Is that a little more back-end loaded? Like what's the update there?
好的。所以,我們展望一下,明年的5.7億美元和1.4億美元,這些資金還能得到保障嗎?後端負載是不是稍微高一點?那邊有什麼最新進展嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. This is David. I would say nothing that we've seen with E+ I up to this point has changed our view for 2022 and our expectations for financials. We'll certainly give an update and include that in our guidance when we announce 4Q. But I would say, nothing we have seen has changed our expectations for next year.
是的。這是大衛。我不會說我們在E+上看到的任何內容。到目前為止,我已經改變了我們對 2022 年的看法以及我們對財務狀況的預期。我們一定會提供最新信息,並在公佈第四季度業績時將其納入我們的業績指引中。但我想說,目前我們所看到的一切都沒有改變我們對明年的期望。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Okay. And then just one last one. Pretty strong backlog, obviously, on a relative basis. I would have expected, though, with orders up 17%, it would have been -- our calc is kind of getting us to north of $2.5 billion. Obviously, there's some puts and takes on how you calculate backlog. But is there -- is there anything there, did that stuff -- some stuff move out as other stuff moved in? Or is the calc just not as easy as backlog minus sales plus orders?
好的。最後還有一個。顯然,相對而言,積壓訂單相當多。不過,我原本以為訂單量會成長 17%,我們的計算結果應該會超過 25 億美元。顯然,對於如何計算積壓工作量,存在一些不同的看法。但是那裡有東西嗎?那些東西是不是──有些東西搬走了,而有些東西搬進來了?或者說,計算方法並非像積壓訂單減去銷售量再加上訂單量那麼簡單?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. This is David, Steve. We can work with you on that. There's sometimes an element of rounding in there as well. So our backlog was up close to $200 million in the quarter. The book-to-bill was clearly in that 115%, 120% range. But we have made no significant adjustments as it relates to the backlog, meaning booked orders coming out. There is sometimes an FX component to it that creates some noise. But I would say there's nothing significantly that has changed with how we calculate backlog.
是的。這是大衛,史蒂夫。我們可以在這方面與您合作。這其中有時也包含一些四捨五入的成分。因此,本季我們的積壓訂單接近 2 億美元。訂單出貨比顯然在 115% 到 120% 的範圍內。但就積壓訂單而言,我們沒有做出任何重大調整,也就是說,已預訂的訂單還沒有發放。有時會加入一些特效,產生一些噪音。但我認為,我們在計算積壓工作量方面並沒有什麼重大變化。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Rob Johnson for any closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題了。我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給羅布·約翰遜,請他作總結發言。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Well again, thank you for all being here today, and thank you for your continued support. As you can tell, we're pretty excited about what we're going into for 2022. We'll get through these supply issues, and we'll continue to invest in our R&D and continue to bring new products to market that has the innovation that our customers are looking for. So thanks again. Have a great day.
再次感謝各位今天到場,也感謝大家一直以來的支持。正如你所看到的,我們對即將迎來的 2022 年感到非常興奮。我們會克服這些供應問題,並將繼續投資研發,繼續向市場推出客戶所尋求的具有創新性的新產品。再次感謝。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。