Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Bailey, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Vertiv's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this call is being recorded.

    早安.我是 Bailey,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在,我謹代表 Vertiv 歡迎各位參加 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。 (接線生操作說明)。請注意,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把主持今天的電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁琳恩‧馬克西納女士。請開始吧。

  • Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

    Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

  • Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call.

    謝謝貝利。早安,歡迎參加Vertiv 2022年第三季財報電話會議。

  • Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Rob Johnson; Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon; and Chief Operating Officer and President, Americas, Giordano Albertazzi.

    今天與我一同出席的有 Vertiv 的執行董事長 Dave Cote;執行長 Rob Johnson;財務長 David Fallon;以及營運長兼美洲區總裁 Giordano Albertazzi。

  • Before we begin, I point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv.

    在開始之前,我要指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和營運績效。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties and could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual and quarterly reports and other filings with the SEC.

    這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定性因素的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱今日發布的獲利報告中的警示性聲明,您也可以在我們的年度報告、季度報告以及提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的資訊。

  • Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.

    我們今天所作的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

  • During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將同時介紹GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利新聞稿和投資者關係簡報(可在investors.vertiv.com網站查看)中找到我們的GAAP業績以及GAAP與非GAAP的調節表。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.

    接下來,我將把電話交給執行主席戴夫·科特。

  • David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

    David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

  • Our third quarter performance continues to support the profile of improvement that we presented in February of this year. Our financial performance escalated in the third quarter, as we anticipated, helped by a record level of price that was realized this quarter.

    第三季業績持續印證了我們今年二月提出的改善趨勢。正如我們預期,在第三季創紀錄的價格水準的推動下,我們的財務表現進一步提升。

  • We are doing things differently, especially in the Americas, and we are seeing that translate to an improved financial performance. I know demand is becoming a bigger question for all companies given the macroeconomic environment. Demand win was strong for Vertiv, the data center end market as a true secular demand story, data is just going to continue to grow.

    我們正在採取不同的策略,尤其是在美洲地區,我們看到這些策略轉化為財務表現的提升。我知道,鑑於當前的宏觀經濟環境,需求對所有公司來說都變得越來越重要。 Vertiv 的需求成長強勁,資料中心終端市場是一個真正的長期需求成長點,資料需求只會持續成長。

  • We continue to execute on operational improvements and I'm pleased to report good progress in Americas reflected in the adjusted operating margins improvement.

    我們持續推動營運改進,我很高興地報告,美洲地區取得了良好進展,調整後的營業利潤率有所提高。

  • The work in the Americas is far from done, but there are very encouraging signs. Our operational focus is paying off, and we anticipate this will be visible in our Q4 results in the Americas.

    我們在美洲的工作遠未完成,但已經出現了一些非常令人鼓舞的跡象。我們專注於營運的策略正在取得成效,我們預計這將在第四季度美洲地區的業績中得到體現。

  • We have another significant step-up in operational performance planned for this quarter. Similar to our last earnings call, David will walk you through in detail why we believe this will happen, and it will sound very consistent with our previous discussion.

    本季度,我們計劃在營運績效方面再次大幅提升。與上次財報電話會議類似,David 將詳細說明我們為何相信能夠實現這一目標,這與我們先前的討論內容將高度一致。

  • We made an announcement earlier this month on our CEO Succession Plan. Giordano Albertazzi is the name COO in addition to his duties as America's President till, we find a replacement, and will succeed Rob Johnson as the CEO on January 1 next year.

    本月初,我們發布了執行長繼任計畫。在找到繼任者之前,Giordano Albertazzi 將兼任營運長,同時繼續擔任美國區總裁。他將於明年1月1日接替Rob Johnson出任執行長。

  • I work closely with Gio and feel confident, he brings the right leadership and experience to drive Vertiv's performance. Anand, again, thank Rob for all he has done as CEO over the past 6 years in building Vertiv's strong competitive position and foundation for sustained growth.

    我與Gio密切合作,相信他具備推動Vertiv業績成長所需的領導力和經驗。 Anand,再次感謝Rob在過去六年擔任CEO期間所做的一切,他為Vertiv打造了強大的競爭地位,並為公司的持續成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • As we are in the final quarter of this year, I know attention is focused squarely on the setup for 2023. We've provided adjusted operating profit guidance earlier than usual for 2023 that represents a 60% increase over our current guidance for 2022.

    由於我們已進入今年最後一個季度,我知道大家的注意力都集中在2023年的規劃上。我們比往年更早發布了2023年調整後的營業利潤預期,該預期比我們目前對2022年的預期增長了60%。

  • People have asked about our visibility given the world is a complicated place right now. While visibility isn't perfect, the management team feels confident in their ability to execute and deliver Q4 and what it portends for 2023, which should be a very good year for Vertiv and for our shareholders.

    鑑於當前全球情勢複雜多變,人們詢問了我們的業績可見度。雖然業績可見度並非完美無缺,但管理團隊對執行和完成第四季度業績以及預示著2023年前景的信心十足,2023年對於Vertiv和我們的股東來說都將是碩果累累的一年。

  • So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.

    那麼,接下來我將把電話交給羅布。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. Starting with some key messages on Slide 3. We anticipated the volume ramp up in the back half of 2022 and we're certainly seeing it, with organic net sales up 20% in the third quarter, orders, excluding FX, were up 15%, which is even better than our preliminary orders number we provided earlier this month. We continue to see strong long-term market demand signals from our customers.

    謝謝戴夫。首先,我想談談幻燈片3上的幾個關鍵資訊。我們預計2022年下半年銷售量會大幅成長,而現在看來確實如此。第三季有機淨銷售額成長了20%,不計匯率影響的訂單量成長了15%,甚至超過了我們本月初公佈的初步訂單數據。我們持續收到客戶強勁的長期市場需求訊號。

  • Adjusted operating profit of $134 million was within the guidance range. Our improvement actions are taking hold, and we've seen the improvement building sequentially throughout the year. We delivered again on our price plan, realizing $110 million of price this quarter, and we raised our full year pricing expectations to $365 million.

    調整後的營業利潤為1.34億美元,符合預期。我們的改進措施正在奏效,我們看到全年業績持續改善。我們再次實現了定價計劃,本季定價達到1.1億美元,並將全年定價預期上調至3.65億美元。

  • We saw price cost split $35 million year-over-year tailwind for this quarter. This tailwind will further strengthen into the fourth quarter and into 2023. Supply chain has improved over the last 90 days, even in some areas that have been hampering this, areas like circuit breakers, fans, and other certain electronic categories.

    本季價格成本年減3500萬美元,為市場帶來了利好。這一利多因素將在第四季和2023年進一步增強。過去90天,供應鏈狀況有所改善,即使在一些先前阻礙供應鏈發展的領域,例如斷路器、風扇和其他某些電子產品類別,供應鏈也得到了改善。

  • Our work qualifying alternative suppliers is paying off, and these additional sources of supply support our fourth quarter volume projections. That being said, there are certain categories of power electronics that are still in short supply, and we expect them to remain so throughout at least mid-2023.

    我們對替代供應商的資質審核工作正在取得成效,這些新增的供應來源支撐了我們第四季的銷售預期。儘管如此,某些類別的電力電子產品仍然供應短缺,我們預計這種情況至少會持續到2023年年中。

  • Free cash flow is trending in the right direction, although we continue to carry high levels of inventory to support our increasing volume as fourth quarter is expected to be a record sales quarter for Vertiv. Orders have remained high, which is a great thing, but it has us carrying more inventory than expected.

    自由現金流正朝著正確的方向發展,儘管我們仍保持較高的庫存水準以支持不斷增長的銷量,因為預計第四季度將是Vertiv創紀錄的銷售季度。訂單量一直居高不下,當然是好事,但也導致我們的庫存高於預期。

  • Fourth quarter free cash flow is expected to be an all-time record between $250 million and $300 million positive. And this should set us up, we think, for a great '23. We know our working capital is not optimized, and we are taking the full year projection down from our prior guidance, but we believe there is a significant additional cash benefit in 2023 and we have been working on plans and programs to make sure this happens.

    預計第四季自由現金流將創歷史新高,達到2.5億至3億美元。我們認為,這將為2023年的良好業績奠定基礎。我們深知目前的營運資本尚未達到最佳狀態,因此下調了全年業績預期,但我們相信2023年將有顯著的額外現金收益,為此,我們一直在製定相關計劃和方案。

  • We are affirming the fourth quarter adjusted operating profit guidance of $230 million at the midpoint, which continues to support our view of a very strong fourth quarter and we believe a very good position and very well for 2023.

    我們確認第四季度調整後營業利潤預期中位數為 2.3 億美元,這繼續支持我們對第四季度業績強勁的看法,我們相信公司在 2023 年將處於非常有利的地位,並取得非常好的業績。

  • Turning to Slide 4. This slide summarizes what we see in our markets by region. A few changes in Americas market view. Enterprise has moved to yellow, indicating a bit of caution, but is consistent with what we've been seeing in other global regions. The Enterprise market is exhibiting more caution given to the macro uncertainty, including the possibility of a recession, but still remains positive.

    請看第四張投影片。這張投影片總結了我們按地區劃分的市場狀況。美洲市場前景略有變化。企業市場評級已轉為黃色,顯示市場略顯謹慎,但這與我們在其他全球地區觀察到的情況一致。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性,包括經濟衰退的可能性,企業市場表現出更多的謹慎,但總體上仍保持樂觀。

  • The Communication market in Americas has been very strong for a number of quarters, and there's been a lot of investment associated with 5G technology cycle. While it's coming off those high marks, telecom carriers still invest, both in new technology and their existing network infrastructure. EMEA and Asia markets views remain relatively healthy as well. All in all, strong market backdrop continued for what we do.

    美洲通訊市場在過去幾季表現強勁,5G技術週期也帶來了大量投資。儘管目前市場成長率有所回落,但電信業者仍在持續投資,包括新技術和現有網路基礎設施。歐洲、中東和非洲以及亞洲市場前景也依然相對健康。總而言之,我們所處的市場環境依然強勁。

  • To note, we have been aggressive with our pricing actions for several quarters now, and we continue to see strong demand. We can get price and the ability has been demonstrated each quarter as we make our way through the year.

    值得注意的是,我們已連續幾季採取積極的定價策略,並且持續看到強勁的市場需求。我們能夠獲得理想的價格,而這項能力已在每個季度得到驗證。

  • Moving to Slide 5. We still feel good about customer demand with orders up 15% in the quarter, excluding FX, and that is compared to last year's third quarter, where orders were up 17% from the prior year. We have highlighted that we anticipate year-over-year orders declining in Q4. That is more a product of a challenging comparison to the prior year. If you recall, orders were up 51% in the same period last year.

    進入第五張投影片。我們仍對客戶需求感到樂觀,本季訂單量成長了15%(不計匯率影響),而去年同期訂單量較去年同期成長了17%。我們已強調,預計第四季訂單量將年減。這主要是由於與去年同期相比基數較高所致。您可能還記得,去年同期訂單量增加了51%。

  • Fourth quarter orders, adjusted FX, are expected to be relatively flat in line with third quarter orders. We posted another record-breaking backlog at the end of September of $4.7 billion, which provides great support as we think about our 2023 top line. We continue to execute on our pricing plan and have delivered pricing consistent with our framework each quarter in 2022.

    經匯率調整後,預計第四季訂單量將與第三季基本持平。 9月底,我們的積壓訂單金額再次創下歷史新高,達到47億美元,這為我們展望2023年營收目標提供了強而有力的支撐。我們持續推進定價計劃,並在2022年每季都實現了符合既定框架的定價。

  • Our pricing plan of $135 million for fourth quarter includes, 80% already in the backlog and 20% to be realized on book and ship, but those actions have already taken place. We are clearly demonstrating we can get price in our markets.

    在我們第四季1.35億美元的定價計畫中,80%已落實到積壓訂單中,20%將透過預訂和出貨的方式實現,但這些工作已經完成。我們正在清楚地證明,我們有能力在市場上獲得理想的價格。

  • Supply chain has been improving, clearly not without disruption, but seeing things improve. Improving external market conditions, coupled with the extensive work the team has been doing to qualify new suppliers is helping our situation. The one area that is still tight in some of the semiconductor categories we specifically use.

    供應鏈一直在改善,雖然過程中難免會遇到一些問題,但整體情況正在好轉。外部市場環境的改善,加上團隊為篩選新供應商所做的許多努力,都對我們的現狀有所幫助。目前,我們所使用的一些半導體產品類別的供應仍然比較緊張。

  • We use specialized high-end semiconductors different from some of the categories where you've seen in the market, a nice improvement on those. While availability is slightly improving for us in the specialized categories, we expect this tightness in the markets to continue through at least mid-'23.

    我們使用與市面上其他產品不同的高階專用半導體,這算是一個很大的改進。雖然我們專用產品的供貨情況略有改善,但我們預期市場供應緊張的局面至少會持續到2023年中期。

  • Some good news as it relates to our fan supplier. They are fully qualified and shipping production parts to us. There is favorability in the commodity and freight markets. We typically have 1 quarter lag before that reads through our P&L, but we anticipate seeing more favorability in fourth quarter and going on into 2023.

    關於我們的風扇供應商,傳來一些好消息。他們已完全獲得資質,並開始向我們發貨生產零件。大宗商品和貨運市場目前情勢有利。通常情況下,這些利多因素會落後一個季度才反映在我們的損益表中,但我們預計第四季以及2023年將持續利好市場。

  • Even with some good news at our back, we did raise the inflation estimate for the year by $15 million, with $5 million being realized in Q3, and $10 million anticipated in Q4. This is related to 2 primary factors: one, our regional sales mix is more heavily weighted to higher inflation zones. And we're also seeing some additional inflation in EMEA, mainly related to energy costs.

    儘管有一些好消息,我們還是將全年通膨預期上調了1500萬美元,其中第三季已實現500萬美元,預計第四季將實現1000萬美元。這主要受兩個因素影響:一是我們的區域銷售組合中,高通膨地區的比例增加;二是歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA)也出現了一些額外的通膨,主要與能源成本相關。

  • In summary, our markets remain healthy. While recession proof is a strong term, there is an argument to be made, as Dave said, data will continue to grow through these economic cycles. That data has to be networked, has to be stored, and has to be processed in data centers where our equipment is. We are the market and technology leaders, and we are getting paid for what we do.

    總而言之,我們的市場依然健康。雖然「不受經濟衰退影響」的說法有些誇張,但正如戴夫所說,數據量將在經濟週期中持續成長。這些數據需要連網、存儲,並在我們設備所在的資料中心進行處理。我們是市場和技術的領導者,我們為此付出了相應的代價。

  • Supply chain pressures, as I mentioned earlier, are easing, and we're seeing that benefit and expect that to continue to improve. Coupled with the work we have done to onboard new suppliers, we are proving operationally each quarter, and you're seeing it in our financial performance.

    正如我之前提到的,供應鏈壓力正在緩解,我們已經看到了這種緩解的益處,並預期這種改善趨勢會持續下去。再加上我們為引進新供應商所做的工作,我們每季的營運表現都在不斷提升,這也反映在我們的財務表現上。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to David to walk us through the financials. David?

    現在我把電話交給大衛,讓他來講解一下財務狀況。大衛?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Perfect. Thanks, Rob. Turning to Page 6. This slide summarizes our third quarter financial results.

    完美。謝謝,羅布。翻到第6頁。這張投影片總結了我們第三季的財務表現。

  • Our net sales increased 21% from last year's third quarter and were up 20% organically, including 11% from volume and 9% from pricing. The E&I acquisition contributed $115 million, partially offset by $25 million from the sale of the Industrial UPS business at the end of last year.

    我們的淨銷售額較去年同期成長21%,其中有機成長20%,包括銷量成長11%和價格上漲9%。 E&I收購貢獻了1.15億美元,但部分被去年底出售工業UPS業務所得的2,500萬美元所抵銷。

  • Foreign currency translation negatively impacted net sales by approximately $85 million, with about 2/3 of that in EMEA due to the weakening of both the euro and the British pound.

    外幣折算對淨銷售額造成了約 8,500 萬美元的負面影響,其中約 2/3 的損失發生在 EMEA 地區,原因是歐元和英鎊雙雙走弱。

  • Adjusted operating profit of $134 million was within our guidance range, but at the lower end, primarily due to an incremental $10 million foreign exchange headwind compared to what we assumed this past August.

    調整後的營業利潤為 1.34 億美元,符合我們的預期範圍,但處於較低水平,主要是由於與我們今年 8 月的預期相比,外匯不利因素增加了 1000 萬美元。

  • This foreign exchange headwind includes both translation and transactional impacts within the regions where we buy and sell in currencies other than functional. Compared to prior year, we generated an additional $3 million of adjusted operating profit with the primary drivers summarized at the bottom of this page.

    外匯逆風包括我們在使用非功能性貨幣進行買賣的地區所受到的換算和交易影響。與前一年相比,我們新增了300萬美元的調整後營業利潤,主要驅動因素概述於本頁底部。

  • Of note, as promised, we flipped the price/cost equation from negative to positive, generating a $35 million tailwind in the third quarter. We expect this tailwind to strengthen to about $80 million in the fourth quarter as we continue to deliver on our pricing commitments.

    值得一提的是,正如我們承諾的那樣,我們扭轉了價格/成本關係,由負轉正,在第三季度帶來了3500萬美元的利好。我們預計,隨著我們繼續履行定價承諾,這一利好將在第四季度增強至約8000萬美元。

  • Adjusted operating margin sequentially improved to 9.1% in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second quarter as we continue our margin expansion actions, expecting approximately 14% in the fourth quarter, which would be a record quarterly high.

    經調整後的營業利潤率從第二季的 5.9% 環比提高至第三季的 9.1%,我們繼續推進利潤率擴張計劃,預計第四季將達到約 14%,這將創下季度新高。

  • Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.23 for the quarter, which was in line with August guidance, and $0.03 higher than last year, primarily due to the timing of income tax expense, partially offset by higher year-over-year interest expense, primarily due to debt pursuant to the E&I acquisition.

    本季度調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.23 美元,與 8 月份的預期一致,比去年同期高出 0.03 美元,主要原因是所得稅費用的時間安排,部分被同比利息支出增加所抵消,這主要是由於收購 E&I 產生的債務。

  • Third quarter free cash flow was a use of $20 million. This use moderated sequentially in the third quarter from the second quarter. We anticipate free cash flow to be significantly positive, in fact, a record high in the fourth quarter.

    第三季自由現金流為2000萬美元。與第二季相比,第三季自由現金流消耗減少。我們預期第四季自由現金流將顯著轉正,甚至有望創歷史新高。

  • We spoke about an inventory reduction opportunity in 2023 on our last call, and we still believe this will happen. Supply chains are improving as our internal SIOP processes, both of which should contribute to lower inventory balances going forward.

    我們在上次電話會議上討論了2023年降低庫存的機會,我們仍然相信這將會發生。供應鏈正在改善,我們的內部銷售、庫存和營運計劃(SIOP)流程也在改進,這兩方面都將有助於降低未來的庫存水準。

  • Next, turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our third quarter segment results. All regions saw strong double-digit organic sales growth. The Americas region grew organically approximately 25%, equally balanced between volume and price. Americas adjusted operating profit of $115 million and margin of 16.2% were positively impacted from improved price/cost, but offset by higher investment in fixed costs, including to support the launch of our new Monterrey facility.

    接下來,請翻到第7頁。本頁總結了我們第三季各業務板塊的業績。所有地區均實現了強勁的兩位數有機銷售成長。美洲地區的有機成長約為25%,銷量和價格成長基本持平。美洲地區調整後的營業利潤為1.15億美元,毛利率為16.2%,這主要得益於價格/成本的改善,但部分被固定成本的增加所抵消,其中包括為支持我們位於蒙特雷的新工廠投產而增加的投資。

  • We are encouraged with the margin improvement in the Americas from 11% in the first quarter to an expected 20% in the fourth quarter, an in-year increase of 900 basis points. Still significant work to do, still significant opportunity, but the operational improvements Giordano and his team have introduced are certainly gaining traction.

    美洲地區的利潤率從第一季的11%提升至第四季的預期20%,年增900個基點,這令我們倍感鼓舞。儘管仍有許多工作要做,也存在著巨大的發展機遇,但喬爾丹諾及其團隊所推行的營運改善措施無疑正在取得成效。

  • Organic sales in APAC increased 17% from last year's third quarter, 70% from volume, 30% from price. Operating margins increased 150 basis points, primarily due to favorable price cost and volume leverage.

    亞太地區有機銷售額較去年同期成長17%,其中70%來自銷售成長,30%來自價格上漲。營業利益率提升150個基點,主要得益於有利的價格成本及銷售槓桿作用。

  • Finally, on this slide, EMEA sales were up 14% organically, 2/3 of that from price and 1/3 from volume. As a reminder, EMEA had the most challenging year-over-year comparison as organic sales were up almost 18% in last year's third quarter.

    最後,在本頁幻燈片中,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額有機成長了14%,其中三分之二來自價格上漲,三分之一來自銷售成長。需要指出的是,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的年增幅最大,因為去年第三季該地區的有機銷售額成長了近18%。

  • Inflation has been more pervasive in EMEA recently, at least compared to the other regions, especially related to energy and our price realization in that region did not fully offset these inflationary headwinds in the third quarter.

    近期,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的通貨膨脹更為普遍,至少與其他地區相比是如此,尤其是在能源領域,而我們在該地區的價格實現並未在第三季度完全抵消這些通膨不利因素。

  • As a result, EMEA experienced a small price cost headwind in Q3. We continue to evaluate this inflation and our pricing response, but we do anticipate price cost to be positive in EMEA for the fourth quarter, and we do anticipate a fairly significant step-up in operating margin in the fourth quarter as well.

    因此,歐洲、中東和非洲地區在第三季經歷了輕微的價格成本上漲。我們將繼續評估這一通膨情況以及我們的定價應對措施,但我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區第四季度的價格成本將轉正,並且預計第四季度的營業利潤率也將出現相當大的提升。

  • Turning to Slide 8. We summarize our updated fourth quarter financial guidance, reaffirming adjusted operating profit of $220 million to $240 million provided earlier this month. All metrics on this slide would be record quarterly highs and by significant margins, including free cash flow, which is projected to be between $250 million and $300 million.

    請看幻燈片8。我們總結了更新後的第四季財務預期,重申本月稍早發布的調整後營業利潤為2.2億美元至2.4億美元。本頁所有指標均將創下季度歷史新高,且增幅顯著,包括預計在2.5億美元至3億美元之間的自由現金流。

  • Of course, we still have to execute, and there is much work to be done to capture significant opportunity going forward, but as we have consistently communicated since the beginning of the year, this strong fourth quarter should provide a solid foundation for a very good 2023. This slide provides a lot of detail compared to last year's fourth quarter, and it captures the progress we have made in 12 months, notably the $135 million of incremental pricing.

    當然,我們仍需繼續執行,未來還有很多工作要做才能抓住重大機會。但正如我們年初以來一直強調的,強勁的第四季業績應該能為2023年奠定堅實的基礎。這張投影片與去年第四季相比提供了更多細節,展現了我們在過去12個月中取得的進展,特別是新增的1.35億美元定價。

  • Despite this year-over-year improvement, probably more important for investors to understand the doability of the strong fourth quarter, is the incremental bridge from this year's third quarter, which we will cover in a couple of slides.

    儘管同比有所改善,但對於投資者而言,了解強勁的第四季度能否持續可能更為重要的是,要了解今年第三季度以來的持續增長,我們將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中介紹這一點。

  • Turning to Page 9. This slide summarizes our revised full year financial guidance, reconfirming adjusted operating profit of $450 million to $470 million provided earlier this month. As Rob mentioned in his key messages earlier, we are reducing full year free cash flow guidance by $125 million at the midpoint with approximately $60 million of that from changed expectations for year-end inventory, $30 million from lower expected EBITDA, and $30 million from lower expected cash collections.

    請翻至第9頁。本頁總結了我們修訂後的全年財務預期,並重申了本月初發布的調整後營業利潤為4.5億美元至4.7億美元。正如羅布先前在重要資訊中所述,我們將全年自由現金流預期中位數下調了1.25億美元,其中約6000萬美元來自年末存貨預期調整,3000萬美元來自預期EBITDA下調,3000萬美元來自預期現金收款減少。

  • We had previously projected a more significant inventory reduction by year-end, but as we enter the fourth quarter with record projected sales volumes, and we anticipate continued strong volumes at the beginning of next year, we have reassessed those targets and will not press actions simply to hit a target.

    我們之前曾預計到年底庫存將大幅下降,但隨著我們進入第四季度,預計銷售量將創歷史新高,並且我們預計明年年初銷量將繼續保持強勁增長,因此我們重新評估了這些目標,不會僅僅為了達到目標而倉促採取行動。

  • As mentioned, we have made good progress with SIOP, notably in the Americas. We have seen benefits from improved processes, and we still anticipate an inventory reduction at some point in 2023.

    如前所述,我們在銷售、庫存和營運計劃 (SIOP) 方面取得了良好進展,尤其是在美洲地區。我們已經從流程改進中獲益,並且仍然預計在 2023 年的某個時候庫存會有所下降。

  • Another driver of reduced full year free cash flow estimate is related to the delay of cash collection enhancements, including driving more significant advanced payments for large orders. This delay is temporal as we expect to see benefits from these actions in 2023.

    導致全年自由現金流預期下調的另一個原因是現金回收措施的延遲,包括增加對大額訂單的預付款。這種延遲是暫時的,我們預期這些措施將在2023年帶來效益。

  • Nevertheless, fourth quarter free cash flow is expected to be a record quarterly high. $175 million was the previous high, and free cash flow will be an absolute focus for us in 2023. Certainly understanding that margin improvement will not translate into value creation unless we convert that into cash.

    儘管如此,預計第四季自由現金流將創下季度新高。先前的最高紀錄為1.75億美元,自由現金流將是我們2023年的絕對重點。當然,我們也明白,除非將利潤率的提高轉化為現金,否則利潤率的提高並不能轉化為價值創造。

  • Next, moving to Page 10. This is a format of a slide we shared back in August to provide transparency with our plan to achieve fourth quarter projections. The main drivers are similar to last time, with the most significant difference being the addition of some very volatile foreign exchange.

    接下來,請看第10頁。這是我們8月分享過的一張投影片,旨在提高我們實現第四季業績預測計畫的透明度。主要驅動因素與上次類似,最顯著的差異在於增加了波動性較大的外匯因素。

  • The macro story is relatively straightforward outside of FX, our fourth quarter lift from third quarter should be driven by volume and price. We discussed the drivers of the volume increase last quarter, including the launch of our Monterrey facility, improving supply chain dynamics and normal favorable fourth quarter seasonality. The volume lift is more pronounced in the Americas and EMEA in the fourth quarter, but APAC is expecting a nice increase as well.

    除外匯市場外,宏觀經濟情勢相對明朗,預計第四季銷售和價格將推動業績較第三季有所成長。上季我們討論了銷售成長的驅動因素,包括蒙特雷工廠的投產、供應鏈動態的改善以及第四季度正常的季節性利好因素。第四季美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的銷售成長更為顯著,亞太地區預計也將出現可觀的成長。

  • Pricing is expected to provide an additional $40 million of operating profit in the fourth quarter with 80% of fourth quarter pricing already in backlog. Now of course, we still have to execute to achieve these strong results, but we certainly have clear line of sight to the fourth quarter performance, which we hope this slide demonstrates.

    預計第四季定價將帶來額外 4,000 萬美元的營業利潤,其中 80% 的第四季定價已轉化為積壓訂單。當然,我們仍需努力執行才能實現這些強勁的業績,但我們對第四季的業績前景非常清晰,希望這張投影片能充分說明這一點。

  • Next, turning to Slide 11. We have very often discussed internally and externally, holding ourselves accountable to the quarterly sales and earnings profile we presented back in February. This slide visually captures what we said in February and how our results line up with that profile.

    接下來,請看第11張投影片。我們經常在公司內部和外部討論,要對我們在二月提出的季度銷售和獲利預測負責。這張投影片以視覺化的方式呈現了我們二月的預測內容,以及我們的實際業績與該預測的契合度。

  • February guidance is depicted with the bars, the blue being adjusted for foreign exchange. Our results, both actual and what we expect for the fourth quarter are depicted with the black line. As you can see, both sales and profitability trajectory profiles are very much consistent with our February guidance with our expected fourth quarter adjusted operating profit, when adjusted for foreign exchange, very consistent with what we said at the beginning of the year.

    圖中長條圖代表二月的業績指引,藍色長條圖已根據匯率進行調整。黑色實線代表我們實際的業績以及對第四季的預期業績。如您所見,銷售額和獲利能力的走勢與我們二月份的業績指引高度一致,而經匯率調整後的第四季預期營業利潤也與我們年初的預測非常吻合。

  • So with that said, I now turn it back over to Dave Cote. Dave?

    那麼,接下來就交給戴夫·科特吧。戴夫?

  • David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

    David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

  • Hang on. 2.5 years of working remotely, and I still can't remember to hit the unmute button.

    等等。遠距辦公兩年半了,我還是常常忘記按取消靜音鍵。

  • I said a few things about Gio in my opening remarks, but I'd like to expand on that a bit. Gio is an industry veteran. He's an operator at (inaudible) and he's been with Vertiv for over 24 years, serving in a variety of operational capacities and really given the terrific background to run a company. He drove significant operational and financial improvements while leading EMEA, tripling the adjusted operating profit in that region to over 18% in a 3-year period ending in '21.

    我在開場白中簡單提到了Gio,但我想再詳細說。 Gio是一位業界資深人士。他目前在(聽不清楚)擔任營運職務,並在Vertiv工作了超過24年,擔任過各種營運職務,累積了豐富的公司管理經驗。在他領導歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA)期間,他推動了營運和財務方面的顯著改善,在截至2021年的三年內,該地區的調整後營業利潤增長了兩倍,超過18%。

  • And we're seeing the early stages of a turnaround story shaping the Americas, where margin has sequentially been increasing. The SIOP process has been greatly improved. And a focus on creating a high-performing culture is apparent within the organization. He knows a lot about the industry and has a track record of performance in both Europe and the Americas, which together represent about 70% of Vertiv sales.

    我們看到美洲地區正處於轉型初期,利潤率持續成長。銷售、庫存和營運計劃 (SIOP) 流程已顯著改善。公司內部也明顯注重打造高效率文化。他對該行業非常了解,並在歐洲和美洲都擁有卓越的業績記錄,這兩個地區的銷售額合計約佔 Vertiv 總銷售額的 70%。

  • His broad operational background and that success uniquely positioned him to turn Vertiv into a high-performing business. He is the right person to lead this company and at the right time. So I ask Gio to talk a bit about his work on the Americas, the key initiatives underway, and to provide some early thoughts on 2023 that provide an introduction -- a better introduction to all of you of our incoming CEO. So, Gio?

    他豐富的營運經驗和卓越的業績使他擁有獨特的優勢,能夠將Vertiv打造成一家高績效企業。他是領導這家公司的最佳人選,時機也恰到好處。因此,我請Gio談談他在美洲地區的工作、正在進行的關鍵舉措,以及他對2023年的展望,以便更好地向大家介紹我們即將上任的CEO。那麼,Gio,請您談談吧?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Thank you, Dave. Thanks a lot. I appreciate the kind introduction.

    謝謝你,戴夫。非常感謝。感謝你的介紹。

  • I want to assure everyone the transition is well underway, and we expect it to be quite similar actually. That is correct, I'm an operator at (inaudible). It is my passion. I'd say it's my natural in many respects. And I think I can add considerable value. I'd like to share some things we've been working on in the Americas.

    我想向大家保證,過渡工作進展順利,我們預期實際情況會非常相似。沒錯,我是(聽不清楚)的營運人員。這是我的熱情所在。可以說,在很多方面,這都是我的強項。而且我認為我能為公司做出相當大的貢獻。我想和大家分享我們在美洲開展的一些工作。

  • Since March, we have done quite a lot, the full assessment, the transformation plan focused on getting price, ensuring leadership accountability, strengthening communication processes, operational excellence, systems and certainly fostering a strong sense of urgency. We have improved the SIOP process, have simplified the organization to focus on accountability and speed. We're driving the Americas regions towards a high-performance culture.

    自三月以來,我們做了很多工作,包括全面評估、制定轉型計劃,重點在於提升價格、確保領導責任、加強溝通流程、提升營運效率、完善系統,當然還有培養強烈的緊迫感。我們改進了銷售、庫存和營運計劃 (SIOP) 流程,簡化了組織架構,以專注於問責制和效率。我們正引領美洲地區邁向高績效文化。

  • Still in the early stages, but I'm encouraged by the sequential improvements we are experiencing.

    雖然還處於早期階段,但我們所取得的逐步改進令我感到鼓舞。

  • Let's turn to Slide 13. As I think about 2023, focus areas are clear and consistent with what we have been working on, margin improvement, price and cost, free cash flow generation, working capital improvements and profitable growth. We know the levers to achieve these objectives. We will have operational teams focused and accountable to meeting that. We will do so with a keen sense of urgency and rigor.

    讓我們來看第13張投影片。展望2023年,重點領域清晰明確,與我們一直以來的工作方向一致:提高利潤率、優化價格和成本、創造自由現金流、改善營運資本以及實現獲利成長。我們深知實現這些目標的途徑。我們將組成專注且負責的營運團隊,全力以赴地完成這些目標。我們將以高度的緊迫感和嚴謹的態度來執行這些任務。

  • Slide 14, please. And this slide shows some of our early thoughts on 2023. As you can see, visually, you should have more tailwinds than headwinds. Our backlog and order pace support healthy top line for 2023. End market demand is strong. We know how to get price. Additionally, we have some moderation of commodity and trade costs, and this year fixed cost will be held constant.

    請看第14張投影片。這張幻燈片展示了我們對2023年的一些初步展望。如您所見,從圖表上看,順風大於逆風。我們的積壓訂單和訂單進度將支撐2023年健康的營收成長。終端市場需求強勁。我們知道如何獲得價格優勢。此外,大宗商品和貿易成本有所下降,今年的固定成本將保持不變。

  • Cash will be helped by overall improved profitability, but also from unlocking significant working capital opportunities. These objectives are well within reach. There will also be some headwinds, certain categories of electronics as Rob say, remain tight, and there will be inflationary pressure as it relates to energy costs in EMEA, as an example. That will not only impact us, but also impact our suppliers.

    現金流將受惠於整體獲利能力的提升,同時也得益於大量營運資金的釋放。這些目標完全可以實現。當然,也會面臨一些不利因素,例如羅布提到的某些電子產品類別仍然供應緊張,以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區能源成本上漲帶來的通膨壓力。這不僅會影響我們,也會影響我們的供應商。

  • FX remains volatile. There has been much discussion on potential recession. We don't expect it should have a big impact on our sales, but we are taking steps right now, for example, to restrict external hiring in anticipation. We believe that at the same time, sorry. But I like the view from here we can navigate these uncertainties, because we participate in a very -- in very good end markets. We are market and technology leaders. We have global scale. We have tremendous installed base, and we are very relevant with the key customers in our markets.

    外匯市場依然波動。關於潛在經濟衰退的討論很多。我們預計這不會對我們的銷售產生太大影響,但我們正在採取措施,例如,為了應對可能出現的情況,限制外部招聘。同時,我們堅信,我們能夠應對這些不確定性,因為我們身處在非常優秀的終端市場。我們是市場和技術領導者。我們擁有全球規模。我們擁有龐大的用戶基礎,並且與我們市場中的關鍵客戶保持著密切的聯繫。

  • We have a sharp focus on operational execution and excellence. We believe 2023 can be a very good year for Vertiv and Vertiv's shareholders. And candidly, as you may have picked up on this already in the last few minutes, I truly love this business and I indeed, I love the company profoundly. I'm very excited about Vertiv's future. And you can tell I have a lot of passion, sometimes my passion takes over, and I tend to overelaborate on things. Hey, my Italian heritage must mean something indeed. So please bear with me. Work item and the upcoming Q&A, certainly an opportunity to prove myself.

    我們高度重視營運執行和卓越表現。我們相信2023年對Vertiv及其股東來說將是碩果累累的一年。坦白說,正如您剛才可能已經感受到的,我真心熱愛這份事業,也深深地愛著這家公司。我對Vertiv的未來充滿信心。您或許能感受到我的熱情,有時熱情會讓我滔滔不絕,甚至有些誇張。嘿,看來我的義大利血統確實起了作用。所以請多多包涵。接下來的工作事項和問答環節,無疑是我證明自己的好機會。

  • But before that, I want to wholeheartedly thank Rob for all he has done for Vertiv in the last 6 years. It was a lot of heavy lifting to do as we became a Vertiv, a stand-alone company 6 years ago. Rob took what was almost a $4 billion start-up and transformed it into a growth company. We are the partner of choice of our customers, and we are very relevant across the entire market space. This happened thanks to Rob's leadership. We are grateful. So big thank you. Big thank you, Rob.

    但在此之前,我要衷心感謝羅布過去六年為Vertiv所做的一切。六年前,我們成為Vertiv這家獨立公司,這段期間他付出了巨大的努力。羅布接手了這家當時估值近40億美元的新創公司,並將其轉型為快速成長的企業。如今,我們已成為客戶的首選合作夥伴,並在整個市場領域中佔據著舉足輕重的地位。這一切都歸功於羅布的卓越領導。我們感激不盡。非常感謝你,羅布。

  • With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator, who will open the line for questions. Thank you very much.

    接下來,我們將把電話轉接給接線員,他/她將接聽提問。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

    (操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • Congratulations, Gio. Good luck to you, Rob. Maybe this one is for you, Gio. I know it's early in your tenure in the Americas, but maybe you could give us a little more color into what has been the low-hanging fruit that you've been able to consume in the Americas to help boost margin over the last couple of quarters?

    恭喜你,Gio。祝你好運,Rob。 Gio,也許這封信是寫給你的。我知道你剛到美洲不久,但你能不能詳細介紹一下,過去幾季你在美洲都做了哪些容易實現的業績成長,從而提升了利潤率?

  • And what do you think is going to be more difficult to change and/or could take longer to change within the Americas organization versus your original expectations?

    您認為在美洲組織內部,哪些方面更難改變,或與您最初的預期相比,哪些方面需要更長的時間才能改變?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • I would point to 3 things here, Andy. Certainly, a lot of focus on the pricing muscle that we reinforced dramatically. And I think we start to see the results. A lot of focus, as I said, on making sure that there is accountability and accountability happens also through very strong governance and a very consistent way of running the region operationally.

    安迪,我想指出三點。首先,我們非常重視定價權,並且大幅加強了定價能力。我認為我們已經開始看到成效。其次,正如我所說,我們非常注重確保問責制,而問責制的實現也離不開強有力的治理和區域運作的一致性。

  • One thing that we have done, and we've been vocal about is, a return to office by which we make sure that everyone cooperate and stays focused on delivering on our objectives. And it's a part of a cultural transformation towards making this truly a high-performance culture, not just the Americas, because entire plan is that has started to deliver the dividends, I believe.

    我們已經採取並公開強調的一項措施是,透過重返辦公室,確保每個人都能通力合作,專注於實現我們的目標。這也是文化轉型的一部分,旨在創造真正的高績效文化,而不僅限於美洲地區。我相信,整個計劃已經開始產生效益。

  • But then we can elaborate on other elements that are the improvements of capacity, opening the Monterrey factory being probably the most visible example, but think about a broader capacity enhancement effort that has gone through across the entire business.

    但是,我們也可以詳細闡述其他提升產能的因素,蒙特雷工廠的投產可能是最明顯的例子,但也要考慮整個企業所進行的更廣泛的產能提升工作。

  • The job we have done on reinforcing processes. And I always like to mention and also Dave did talk about the SIOP, the sales inventory operations planning that is really the end-to-end glue that connects our ability to deliver to the ability of telling the customer -- sorry, the suppliers, what we will need in the future, all the more reasons crucial in times in which supply chain is complicated.

    我們在強化流程方面所做的工作。我總是喜歡提及銷售、庫存和營運計劃(SIOP),戴夫也談到了這一點。 SIOP 真正起到了端到端的黏合劑作用,它將我們的交付能力與告知客戶(抱歉,是供應商)我們未來需求的能力連接起來,在供應鏈日益複雜的時代,這一點尤為重要。

  • I would add to the equation, the strong effort that we've been doing is, as we benefiting still doing to multisource critical components, all elements that have contributed is an orchestration. There's no one kind of a -- 1 super bullet here.

    我想補充一點,我們一直在努力的方向是,正如我們仍在努力實現多源關鍵組件一樣,所有參與其中的要素都構成了一個協調的整體。這裡並沒有什麼一勞永逸的「萬能鑰匙」。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • Very helpful, Gio. And then maybe just stepping back, can you give us more color into the market environment you guys are seeing? There obviously are a couple more yellows in the Americas now in terms of the markets you highlighted. Have you seen any deferrals in orders within your core Enterprise end markets?

    非常感謝,Gio。接下來,能否請您更詳細地介紹一下您目前所看到的市場環境?顯然,就您提到的市場而言,美洲地區現在又出現了幾個風險較高的市場。你們的核心企業終端市場是否出現了訂單延期的情況?

  • And could you elaborate on the stability of CapEx from Enterprise and Communications customers, particularly in the Americas? And what gives you confidence that cloud and colocation customers will stay green moving forward?

    您能否詳細說明企業和通訊客戶(尤其是在美洲地區)資本支出的穩定性?是什麼讓您相信雲端和託管客戶未來會繼續保持綠色發展?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Yes. I would say that order cancellation is absolutely within the norm, what we -- within the norm or normal business cycle. So there, I'd say de minimis. What we have -- what we continue to see and have evidence, not just from our order intake, but also from the multiple conversations that we're having with all the relevant and large hyperscale and colo players, that Rob and I are doing also as part of the handover process, is that demand is there, and demand continues to be robust.

    是的。我認為訂單取消完全在正常範圍內,屬於正常的商業週期範疇。所以,我認為這只是微不足道的現象。我們持續觀察並掌握了證據,這不僅體現在我們的訂單接收情況中,也體現在我們與所有相關的大型超大規模資料中心和託管服務提供者的多次溝通中(我和羅布也在進行這些溝通,這也是交接流程的一部分),這些都表明市場需求仍然強勁。

  • On the Enterprise side, we just want to be a little bit more signal with some caution, but it's not for kind of an evidence of weakening of the signal. It's just that probably the macroeconomic environment might signal was a bit more prudent. But I remain quite positive about the strength of the market in the Americas going forward.

    在企業方面,我們希望發出更謹慎的訊號,但這並非表示訊號減弱。只是宏觀經濟環境可能發出了更為審慎的訊號。但我對美洲市場的未來發展依然非常樂觀。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • So Gio for Enterprise, it's not so much what you're seeing, but just prudent caution moving forward. Is that fair?

    所以,對於企業版Gio來說,重要的不是你現在看到的,而是未來謹慎行事。這樣說對嗎?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • That's fair. That's absolutely fair. That's fair, Andy.

    這很公平。這絕對公平。這很公平,安迪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

    今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Congratulations. Can you just give us a little bit of color as kind of snapping the line today and looking at what price you have in backlog and where commodities stand? What -- how much of that bridge to next year is -- reflects kind of what's prevailing today from that perspective, price cost-wise? Just math.

    恭喜!能否請您簡要介紹一下,例如今天您是如何看待積壓訂單的價格以及大宗商品的價格走勢的?從價格成本的角度來看,有多少訂單能夠延續到明年?這其中有多少反映了當前的市場行情?我們來算算帳。

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. Yes. Good question, Steve. This is David. I used to had to say this is David, because they would confuse Gary and my voice. I don't think they'll do that with Giordano.

    是的,是的。問得好,史蒂夫。我是大衛。以前我得特意說“我是大衛”,因為他們會把加里和我的聲音搞混。我覺得他們不會把喬丹諾的聲音搞混。

  • But -- so when you look at the progression of price through 2022, we consistently said we had to burn through the backlog that was included in pricing or the pricing that was in backlog at the end of '21. So I think 80% of our sales in the first quarter of this year, was in backlog at the end of '21. In the fourth quarter, only 20% of our sales will be in backlog from 2021.

    但是——所以當你觀察2022年的價格走勢時,我們一直強調,我們必須消化掉定價中包含的積壓訂單,或者說2021年底積壓的訂單。因此,我認為今年第一季我們80%的銷售額都來自2021年底的積壓訂單。到了第四季度,只有20%的銷售額會來自2021年的積壓訂單。

  • And as a result, you can see the significant increase in ramp-up of pricing during the year. So I think we had $40 million in Q1, and we'll have $135 million of year-over-year pricing in Q4.

    因此,您可以看到年內價格上漲幅度顯著。我認為我們第一季的價格漲幅為 4,000 萬美元,而第四季同比價格漲幅將達到 1.35 億美元。

  • I don't want to say we've reached a level of stability with pricing, but certainly, as it translates into profitability in the P&L, the fourth quarter will really be that first quarter where we can demonstrate what we can do as it relates to pricing at the level that arguably, we probably should have been pricing at.

    我不想說我們在定價方面已經達到了穩定水平,但可以肯定的是,就損益表上的盈利能力而言,第四季度將是我們真正能夠證明我們在定價方面能夠做到什麼程度的第一個季度,而這個定價水平可以說是我們本來就應該達到的水平。

  • So if you look at the wraparound impact for 2023 from pricing, and this just assumes that we keep the same pricing levels exiting Q4 into 2023, it's about $150 million to $200 million. We would expect to do better than that, because we continue with our pricing efforts.

    因此,如果從定價的角度來分析2023年的後續影響,並且假設我們保持第四季末的價格水準到2023年不變,那麼影響大約在1.5億美元到2億美元之間。我們預計實際影響會更大,因為我們將繼續推進定價策略。

  • As it relates to inflation for next year, it's probably too soon. We certainly think there will be a year-over-year gross headwind from inflation. But from just about any perspective, we certainly would expect to be price cost positive next year, but probably too early to quantify what we think the impact will be for inflation.

    至於明年的通膨情況,現在下結論可能還為時過早。我們當然認為通膨會對經濟造成年比的負面影響。但從幾乎所有角度來看,我們都預計明年的價格成本將為正,但現在量化通膨的影響可能還為時過早。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • So then I guess that's kind of like if we assume no inflation, that's part of the way there. I think there's a bit more of a gap you have to bridge. I mean, what are you assuming volume growth? Or are you like -- are there one-timers that reverse out of this year? Like, maybe just a bit more color on the bridge or any other items?

    所以,我覺得這就好比我們假設沒有通貨膨脹,這算是解決了一部分問題。但我認為還有更多差距需要彌補。我的意思是,你對銷售成長的預期是多少?或者說,今年是否存在一些一次性因素導致銷售下滑?例如,或許需要對成長曲線進行一些更詳細的說明,或是其他一些事項?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. Probably too early to add a whole lot of detail to 2023. I know we put that $730 million to $750 million number out there at -- in August, and we reconfirm that. But as it relates to kind of filling in the details, it's probably too soon. And we'll provide a more robust bridge from '22 to '23 in February.

    是的。現在就詳細討論2023年的情況可能還為時過早。我知道我們在8月份公佈了7.3億美元到7.5億美元的數字,並且再次確認了這一點。但要具體確定細節,現在可能還太早。我們會在2月提供更完善的2022年至2023年過渡計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.

    今天的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Maybe back to Gio. Gio, with the long history at Emerson and then through Platinum ownership and the like, obviously, you've seen a lot of ups and downs and kind of some turmoil in this business. I think you partially answered my question to your response to Andy, but just kind of stepping back, big picture.

    或許可以回到Gio身上。 Gio,他在Emerson工作多年,後來又經歷了Platinum的收購等等,顯然,你見證了這個行業的許多起起落落和動盪。我覺得你回覆Andy時已經部分回答了我的問題,但我想從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。

  • What holistically do you want to drive going forward? And do you have a comfort level with this kind of a longer-range forecast of this being upwards of a 20% margin business on an annualized basis going forward?

    從整體來看,您希望未來朝哪個方向發展?您是否對未來該業務年化利潤率達到 20% 以上的長期預測感到滿意?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Well, clearly, I have confidence in what we have shared, and thank you for the question.

    顯然,我對我們分享的內容很有信心,謝謝你的提問。

  • The -- as -- and all time -- a long time, let me say, because I've seen the company evolve over time. And I would say this company that has still a big potential to -- a big potential to operate in a more effective way.

    一直以來,我見證了這家公司的發展歷程,時間很長,所以我想說,因為我親眼目睹了它的發展演變。我認為這家公司仍然擁有巨大的潛力,可以以更有效率的方式運作。

  • Again, the focus areas as I was mentioning, really around operational execution, continued margin expansion. We have work to do as we're saying on working capital and very, very central is our cultural evolution towards the high-performance culture.

    正如我剛才提到的,重點領域仍然是營運執行和持續提升利潤率。正如我們所說,我們在營運資本方面還有很多工作要做,而至關重要的是,我們要向高績效文化轉型。

  • Again, I've worked in many parts of the organization. So not only under a different brand, if you will, but also in multiple roles. So I believe I have an ability to lead the organization that is pretty advantages, let me say.

    再說一遍,我曾在公司很多部門工作過。所以,我不僅在不同的品牌下工作過,也擔任過多種不同的職位。因此,我相信我有能力領導公司,這可以說是我的優勢之一。

  • And again, no magic wands, no silver bullet, it's a lot of focus on operational execution, on -- focusing on the things that matter to drive cash and to drive profitability. But again, it's enabling that with a cultural enhancement that we have started to drive.

    再次強調,沒有靈丹妙藥,也沒有萬全之策,關鍵在於營運執行,在於專注於那些真正能帶來現金流和獲利能力的事情。而這一切,都離不開我們已經開始推動的文化建構。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • And then on execution as David Fallon so appropriately said, you still actually have to deliver the guide. But can you give us a little bit more perspective on how much of the guide is in your hands as opposed just kind of executing on backlog versus real question marks about supply availability, maybe question mark still about Monterrey being able to fully wrap up -- ramp up, I don't know if you feel it, that's 100% where you need it to be. But if you were to come up short here in Q4, where would it likely be in your opinion?

    正如大衛法倫所言,執行方面,你最終還是要交付指南。但你能否更詳細地談談指南的執行情況,例如你目前掌握了多少主動權,而不是僅僅在處理積壓訂單,以及供應方面存在哪些真正的疑問,比如蒙特雷能否完全完成——產能提升——我不知道你是否也有這種感覺,但這正是你們所需要的。如果第四季出現供應不足的情況,你認為最有可能出現什麼問題?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes, Jeff, this is David. And there's still a ton of variables, and it's not only variables from a macro perspective, but within region. I think what we have said consistently over the last 2 or 3 quarters is that our issue is not a demand issue. The backlog is there. We have the orders. Probably the biggest risk is related to supply.

    是的,傑夫,我是大衛。目前還有很多變數,不僅包括宏觀層面的變數,也包括區域內部的變數。過去兩三個季度我們一直強調的是,我們的問題不在於需求。積壓訂單充足,我們有訂單。最大的風險可能在於供應。

  • And even though a lot of that supply has cleared up, notably with electronic components based on things we have done proactively, including qualifying new suppliers. And we talked a lot about the fan suppliers, but there still is a lot of volatility out there.

    儘管許多供應問題已經解決,特別是電子元件方面,這得益於我們採取的積極措施,包括對新供應商進行資格認證。我們也多次討論過風扇供應商的問題,但市場仍有很大的波動。

  • And for a lot of these components, it's day-to-day, week-to-week. So we have better visibility than we had 60, 90 days ago. But I would still say there's risk as it relates to production and shipment. It's not necessarily a demand issue, I think we talked about fairly consistently.

    對於許多零件而言,供應情況都是按日或按週變化的。因此,我們現在的可見度比60、90天前好得多。但我仍然認為,生產和發貨方面存在風險。這不一定是需求問題,我想我們之前也多次討論過這個問題。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Correct. And your question specifically on Monterrey, we are happy about the way the plan is unfolding. We have a great team, and the team are delivering on our plan. But again, as Dave was saying, it's the challenges around components, just exactly as said by him.

    沒錯。至於你問的蒙特雷項目,我們對目前的進展很滿意。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊,他們正在按計劃推進。但正如戴夫所說,挑戰主要在於零件方面,他完全同意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

    今天的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • When you guys talk about adding new suppliers and like specking out new suppliers, it sounds inherently inflationary. I mean, you lose some scale, I suppose, with that supplier. How material is that when you think about your kind of bill of goods?

    你們談到增加新供應商,或者像製定新的供應商規格那樣,這聽起來本身就會導致通貨膨脹。我的意思是,增加供應商規模,規模自然會縮小。考慮到你們的商品清單,這種影響有多大?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • I would say that there is a counterargument to that. When you add supplier, you add bargaining power at the same time. So it is more than we see the 2 things that are pretty much offset.

    我認為對此仍有反駁的空間。供應商的加入也意味著議價能力的提升。因此,實際情況並非我們看到的只是兩個基本上相互抵銷的因素。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Okay. That's surprising and good, positive. The follow-on question is just on the stickiness of price increases. Are there situations where if raw material costs go down, et cetera, you are mandated to give back some of that price when we get into '23?

    好的。這令人驚喜,也是個好消息。接下來的問題是關於價格上漲的持續性。是否存在這樣一種情況:如果原料成本下降等等,到了2023年,你們是否必須將部分價格下調?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes, Scott, this is David. In some cases, yes. So we've included material cost escalation clauses in some of our master sales agreements. And -- but there are bands included in those. So it's not dollar for dollar, penny for penny, they have to expand either upwards or downwards outside of that band. And to some extent, there will be some pricing impact, but we don't consider that a significant risk heading into 2023.

    是的,史考特,我是大衛。在某些情況下,確實如此。因此,我們在一些主銷售協議中加入了材料成本上漲條款。而且——但這些條款中都包含價格區間。所以價格上漲並非一分一分地按比例進行,超出該區間時,價格必須向上或向下調整。在某種程度上,價格會受到某種影響,但我們認為這在2023年不會構成重大風險。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

    今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I have 2 as well. Maybe to start with on free cash flow. Is the way to think about how much excess working capital inventory you think you're carrying right now? And do you expect all of that to sort of convert into free cash flow in '23, or would be a much more elongated time frame for higher free cash flow and more working capital optimization? So let's just understand, how much extra inventory do you have? And how does that normalization looks like through '23?

    我也有兩個問題。或許可以先從自由現金流入手。思考這個問題的方法是,你認為目前持有多少過剩的營運資本庫存?你預計這些庫存會在2023年全部轉換成自由現金流嗎?還是說,要實現更高的自由現金流和更優化的營運資本,需要更長的時間?所以,讓我們先來了解一下,你目前有多少額外的庫存?到2023年,庫存正常化的情況會是怎麼樣的?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. I'll start, Amit. So maybe I'd start with some facts. So our inventory level at the end of 2020 was about $450 million. We expect, at least on a GAAP basis, our inventory level at the end of this year will be around $765 million. So that's a $300 million increase in inventory, and that includes some foreign exchange benefit.

    好的,我先來,阿米特。或許我可以先列舉一些事實。 2020年底,我們的庫存水準約為4.5億美元。我們預計,至少以美國通用會計準則(GAAP)計算,今年年底的庫存水準將約為7.65億美元。這意味著庫存增加了3億美元,其中包含了一些外匯收益。

  • So very clearly, inventory has increased each of the past 2 years. And very clearly at a level that is, as you say, in excess of what we need to run the business, we believe, on a go-forward basis.

    很明顯,過去兩年庫存逐年增加。而且正如您所說,目前的庫存水準顯然超過了我們未來維持業務運作所需的水準。

  • Now there are some contributory factors. Certainly, volume is significantly higher than it was when we exit 2020. And the supply chain has created many issues, not only for us, but many, many industrial companies out there.

    當然,這其中有一些促成因素。首先,銷量肯定比2020年底時高很多。其次,供應鏈也造成了許多問題,不僅對我們,對許多其他工業企業來說都是如此。

  • So it's hard at this point and probably premature to quantify what we think that benefit is, but it's something certainly we've been working on during the year. We could have probably taken that inventory level down a little bit lower at an exit point in 2022, but based on the significant volumes that we have to deliver this year and we anticipate heading into next year, we thought it prudent to not be overly aggressive.

    所以現在很難量化我們認為的收益,可能也為時過早,但這確實是我們今年一直在努力的方向。我們本可以在2022年底將庫存水準再降低一些,但考慮到我們今年以及預計明年需要交付的大量貨物,我們認為謹慎行事為上是不可取的。

  • But with that said, because of the SIOP improvements, because some of the things we're doing with supply chain, we do believe there would be an inventory reduction at some point in 2023.

    但即便如此,由於 SIOP 的改進,以及我們在供應鏈方面所做的一些事情,我們相信 2023 年的某個時候庫存將會減少。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then if I could just follow-up. If I look at the midpoint that you guided for December sort of the 2022 numbers, I think there's about $300 million of material and freight inflation that helped kind of a headwind, right? If you want to think about how much is material versus freight explicitly? And is it fair to assume that the freight cost has given what's happening in the world should start to trend lower and that at least would be nice tailwind in '23?

    明白了。然後我再補充一點。如果我看一下您之前對2022年12月數據的預測中位數,我認為其中大約有3億美元的原材料和運費通膨,這算是一個不利因素,對嗎?如果要具體分析原料和運費的漲幅,您覺得分別是多少?考慮到目前全球情勢,運費成本是否會開始下降,這至少會在2023年成為有利因素,這種假設合理嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. So I think for the full year, our material and freight inflation number's $305 million. I think that's what you're referring to. About 80% of that is material and 20% is freight. And we include both spot buys and the material inflation and premium freight in the freight number.

    是的。所以我覺得全年來看,我們的原物料和運費通膨數據是3.05億美元。我想這就是你指的。其中約80%是原料,20%是運費。運費數據包含了現貨採購、原物料通膨以及溢價運費。

  • And we, too, are seeing some of the favorable benefits of freight rates. I would say 90% of what we do is on contract as opposed to spot. So we won't see the benefit immediately, but we also have adjustment clauses in those contracts, which should favorably benefit us over time. And we would say certainly at the beginning of 2023.

    我們也看到了運費上漲帶來的一些好處。我們90%的業務都是簽訂合約而非現貨交易。因此,我們不會立即看到收益,但這些合約中也包含調整條款,隨著時間的推移,這些條款應該會對我們有利。我們預計,到2023年初,收益肯定會顯現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

    今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的妮可·德布萊斯。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • I could just -- I'd like to just ask a modeling question, since you've been through a lot of the higher-level stuff. So I think it was -- Rob went through the -- sorry, I think it was Dave that went through the Americas margin outlook for 4Q.

    我只想問一個關於建模的問題,因為你們已經講解了很多更高層次的內容。我記得好像是羅布講解了——抱歉,我想應該是戴夫講解了第四季美洲地區的利潤率展望。

  • But -- what about Asia Pac and EMEA, like how much improvement are you guys expecting to see in the fourth quarter? And also any color on how organic growth stacks up by region, would be helpful as well.

    但是──亞太和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的情況又是如何?你們預計第四季會有多大的改善?另外,如果能提供各地區有機成長情況的詳細數據就更好了。

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. So I think in the last presentation, we spelled out full year expectations by quarter for adjusted operating margin by region. We did not include that in this quarter, and we knew somebody would ask about it.

    是的。我想在上一次報告中,我們詳細列出了按地區劃分的季度調整後營業利潤率的全年預期。本季報告我們沒有包含這部分內容,我們也知道一定會有人問到這個問題。

  • So we have the numbers ready. Yes. So Americas, we're targeting about 20%. That's about 400 basis point lift from Q3. EMEA, and this is based on the expectation of being price cost positive in Q4, and also the benefit of volume leverage, we anticipate adjusted operating profit in EMEA to be in the mid-20s. So call it, 24%, 25%.

    我們已經準備好相關數據了。是的。美洲地區,我們的目標是成長約20%。這比第三季成長約400個基點。歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA),這是基於第四季價格成本為正的預期,以及銷售槓桿效應,我們預期EMEA地區的調整後營業利潤將在20%左右。所以,我們暫且稱之為24%或25%。

  • So down from what we had previously disclosed because of the additional inflation that we talked about, but still, a significant increase from what we saw in Q3 and a very significant increase from what we saw in Q4 of last year. And APAC, we would anticipate being relatively flat in Q4 versus Q3.

    因此,由於先前提到的額外通膨因素,實際數字低於我們先前揭露的數字,但仍比第三季顯著成長,比去年第四季更是大幅成長。我們預計亞太地區第四季與第三季相比將基本持平。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • Okay. And just anything on organic growth by the 3 regions as well, like, if there's a big divergence?

    好的。另外,關於這三個地區的有機成長情況,例如是否有較大差異?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. So I think organic growth for total Vertiv in Q4 would be 25%. And you got to take a step back and realize you're saying 25%. That's a big number. There is some divergence across the regions. I would say, certainly highest in the Americas, and that could be 30% to 40% increase driven by both volume and price. EMEA year-over-year is probably in the mid-20s. And I would say, APAC is probably up about 10%.

    是的。所以我認為Vertiv第四季整體有機成長率將達到25%。你要仔細想想,你說的是25%,這可不是個小數目。各地區的成長情況有所不同。美洲地區的成長肯定最高,可能達到30%到40%,這主要得益於銷售量和價格的雙重成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的年成長率可能在20%左右。亞太地區的年成長率可能在10%左右。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And just on the order backlog, how far out are you guys booking now? Are you like a long way into filling up 2023? Are you accepting orders for 2024? Just curious on lead times at this point.

    好的,這很有幫助。關於訂單積壓情況,你們現在接受的預訂時間有多長? 2023年的訂單已經排得很滿了嗎?你們接受2024年的訂單嗎?我只是想了解一下目前的交貨週期。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Yes. Nicole, this is Gio. The majority of our orders now are 2023 and in particular, on the first -- on the first half of 2023. We have some second half 2023. And the -- beyond 2023 is just a minor -- it's just a minor part of our backlog today.

    是的,妮可,我是喬。我們現在的訂單大多是2023年的,尤其是2023年上半年的。下半年也有一些訂單。至於2023年以後的訂單,目前只占我們積壓訂單的一小部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.

    今天的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • Rob, I appreciate all your help. Best wishes and Gio, congrats on the new responsibilities.

    羅布,非常感謝你的幫忙。祝一切順利!喬,恭喜你承擔新的職責。

  • First question is on the 2023 outlook. If there is a mild to moderate recession in at least parts of the world, do you think that kind of EBIT level you're guiding for is achievable?

    第一個問題是關於2023年的展望。如果世界至少部分地區出現輕度至中度衰退,您認為您所預測的息稅前利潤水準能夠實現嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Our goal would be to maintain profitability regardless of what happened to the top line. Our industry is certainly different than others. No one's recession-proof, but based on the size of our backlog heading into next year. And we certainly don't think the recession impact on use of data and building data centers is certainly going to be perfectly correlated for next year.

    我們的目標是無論營收如何波動,都要保持獲利。我們的行業與其他行業截然不同。沒有一個產業能完全不受經濟衰退的影響,但根據我們明年的訂單積壓規模來看,情況確實如此。而且,我們當然不認為經濟衰退對資料使用和資料中心建置的影響會在明年完全同步。

  • So even in a recession, we feel pretty good about our top line. But if there are headwinds with the top line that roll through variable contribution margins, we'll take the necessary steps from a fixed cost basis to offset it. And our goal would be to maintain that $730 million to $750 million adjusted operating profit outlook regardless of any impact from the recession.

    因此,即使在經濟衰退時期,我們對營收前景依然相當樂觀。但如果營收下滑影響可變貢獻毛利,我們將採取必要措施,從固定成本的角度進行調整以抵銷影響。我們的目標是,無論經濟衰退帶來何種影響,都能維持7.3億美元至7.5億美元的調整後營業利潤預期。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • My follow-up question is on E&I. If memory serves me correctly, originally, that was tracking to something like $0.10 at the time of acquisition. I believe the slides, it ended up as a $0.02 contributor to EPS for this year. That's the latest assumption for full year EPS contribution from E&I.

    我的後續問題是關於E&I(權益和投資)。如果我沒記錯的話,收購時E&I的預期每股盈餘約為0.10美元。根據演示文稿,E&I最終對今年的每股收益貢獻了0.02美元。這是目前E&I全年每股收益貢獻的最新預測。

  • The question has something fundamentally changed around E&I compared to when you did the transaction? Or is this the same type of supply chain and some of these price cost issues that broader Vertiv investment you are dealing with, and over time, we should still be thinking of the same sort of longer-term benefits from the E&I acquisition?

    問題是,與您進行交易時相比,E&I 的根本情況是否發生了變化?或者,這是否與您在 Vertiv 更廣泛的投資中遇到的供應鏈類型和一些價格成本問題相同,隨著時間的推移,我們是否仍然應該考慮從 E&I 收購中獲得相同的長期收益?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Mark. I would say from a strategic perspective, we're more excited about E&I and the positive contributions to Vertiv today than we were at the time of the acquisition. And part of the value equation there was based on revenue synergies. And I would say, our expectation for revenue synergies are probably 3x, if not more, what we had initially anticipated.

    是的,謝謝,馬克。從策略角度來看,我們現在對E&I及其對Vertiv的積極貢獻比收購之初更充滿信心。當時價值評估的一部分是基於收入綜效。我認為,我們對收入綜效的預期可能是最初預期的三倍,甚至更高。

  • Now unfortunately, that's not showing up in the numbers this year. So my depiction of E&I, probably rather crudely is a bad year, great acquisition. A lot of the issues that E&I is seeing from a profitability perspective this year are identical with what we have seen with Vertiv.

    可惜的是,今年的數據並沒有反映出這一點。因此,我對E&I的描述(可能有些粗略)是:今年業績不佳,但收購成功。 E&I今年在獲利方面遇到的許多問題,與我們之前在Vertiv遇到的問題如出一轍。

  • So if you look at the operating profit margin profile quarter-over-quarter this year, I think it started at low teens in Q1, maybe 14%, and it should exit the year closer to 20%. And the story is similar. Inflation hit with a pretty good-sized backlog at the end of last year, and we were just a little bit slow in getting price. And if you look at the price we get in the fourth quarter, that's what really increases the margin from that low teens to 20%.

    所以,如果你看今年的季度環比營業利潤率,我認為第一季只有十幾個百分點,大概14%,而年底應該會接近20%。情況類似。去年年底,通貨膨脹加上相當可觀的訂單積壓,導致我們在定價方面稍微遲緩。而第四季的定價,正是利潤率從十幾個百分點提升到20%的關鍵所在。

  • So I would say, we are more excited today than we were at the time of the acquisition, and sometimes we get asked with if you had to do it all over again, would you still do the deal. And the answer is a very profound robust, absolutely.

    所以我想說,我們現在比收購時更興奮,有時我們會被問到,如果讓你們重新來過,你們還會做這筆交易嗎?我的回答是:絕對會。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Yes, 100% for this deal, 100%. I think it's strategically made sense and all the more reasons it makes a ton of sense, ton of sense now. So we're very, very happy about the decision made back then.

    是的,我百分之百贊成這筆交易,百分之百。我認為這筆交易在戰略上是明智的,而且現在看來更是如此。所以我們對當時所做的決定非常非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from the line of Lance Vitanza from Cowen.

    今天的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Lance Vitanza。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • The first is just to confirm regarding the new fan supplier, it sounds like that's really no longer perspective. You are receiving fans in volume; you're assembling them into products. Is that right? And have you shipped product with the new fans inside yet? Or does that begin later in the quarter or perhaps early in 2023?

    首先,我想確認一下關於新風扇供應商的問題,聽起來你們已經不再考慮這個問題了。你們正在大量接收風扇,並將它們組裝成產品,是這樣嗎?你們已經開始出貨使用新風扇的產品了嗎?還是要等到本季末或2023年初?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • We have -- Vitanza, this is Gio. We have absolutely started -- and that and other actions we've taken on the fan supply side of the equation are greatly improving our ability to deliver on the numbers. But the answer is yes, it has happened. Not only it is happening. It has happened.

    我們已經--維坦扎,這位是喬。我們已經正式啟動了——我們在風扇供應方面採取的這些措施以及其他舉措,大大提高了我們實現銷售目標的能力。答案是肯定的,這件事已經發生了。不僅正在發生,而且已經發生了。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • Okay. And then definitely, you called out that some supply chain easing, which is, of course, good news. On the other hand, the semiconductors still remain tight through the first half of 2023. So my question is, do you see that tightness in semiconductors? Do you see that putting pressure on 2023 revenue? Or is that just putting pressure on the margins in AOP and so forth?

    好的。您剛才也提到供應鏈有所放鬆,這當然是個好消息。但另一方面,半導體供應在2023年上半年仍會很緊張。所以我的問題是,您認為半導體供應緊張會對2023年的營收造成壓力嗎?還是只會對年度營運計畫(AOP)的利潤率等造成壓力?

  • And then if there's any sort of sense for what you think that AOP number could have been if it weren't for the tightness in the semiconductors? I would appreciate hearing your thoughts there, too.

    那麼,如果不是因為半導體裝置的緊密性,您認為AOP值可能會達到什麼程度?我也想聽聽您的看法。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Well, let me answer operationally here. So we have been dealing with a tight supply market when it comes to everything, IGBT, that type of semiconductor. And as I've said, we expect that to continue. So we will -- and we have been taking precautionary measures as well in terms of qualifying new suppliers. So we factor the challenges in our plans. And I don't know, David, if you want to add anything.

    好的,我來從營運層面回答。目前,包括IGBT在內的所有半導體產品都面臨供應緊張的市場局面。正如我之前所說,我們預計這種情況還會持續下去。因此,我們一直在採取預防措施,例如對新供應商進行資格審核。我們在計劃中已經考慮到了這些挑戰。大衛,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • No. It would be really tough to quantify what the impact is. I mean, certainly greater than 0. And we're not talking tens of millions, right? So you see the size of our backlog, it continues to grow. And we think, we see the benefit of some of the very proactive actions we've taken during the year to address the issue. We see that in the fourth quarter. But you can't go back in time and fix the situation in Q2 and Q3.

    不,很難量化其影響。我的意思是,肯定大於零。而且我們說的也不是幾千萬,對吧?所以你看,我們的積壓訂單規模還在持續成長。我們認為,我們今年採取的一些積極主動的措施已經初見成效,尤其是在第四季。但是,你不可能回到過去,去彌補第二季和第三季的不足。

  • So it's in the hundreds of millions, if you look at lost revenue earlier in the year. That's kind of a ballpark. There's a lot of -- that's a multivariable equation, but suffice it to say, it has been very significant.

    所以,如果把年初的收入損失也算進去,損失金額高達數億美元。這只是個大概估計。這其中有很多因素——這是一個多變量方程式,但總而言之,損失非常巨大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question today comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

    今天最後一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • Congratulations and Gio, great meeting you. Just a question, there were headlines about an activist. If you could just sort of talk to us about what kind of conversations you've had with the activist? Any update or color you can provide to us?

    恭喜你,Gio,很高興見到你。有個問題想問一下,最近新聞報道了一位活動人士。你能跟我們說說你和這位活動人士聊了些什麼嗎?有什麼最新消息或細節可以分享嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. It took the last question, Andrew. So good question. And we don't want to necessarily elaborate too much. The folks at this call, certainly on third quarter earnings. But I would say, we're actually very excited to welcome a new shareholder, a very large shareholder.

    是的。安德魯,你問了最後一個問題。問得好。我們不想過多贅述。這次電話會議的重點當然是第三季的收益。但我必須說,我們非常高興地歡迎一位新股東,一位非常重要的股東。

  • A shareholder, who certainly, as they communicated their investment thesis, very consistent with our management thesis. And that is as a company operating in a great industry like we do, with the continued operational improvements and some of the things that Gio mentioned with a focus on developing a high-performance culture.

    一位股東,正如他們所闡述的投資理念一樣,與我們的管理理念非常一致。我們是一家在如此優秀的行業中運營的公司,持續改進運營,並像Gio提到的那樣,專注於打造高績效文化。

  • There's considerable, considerable value here to unlock and it's all the things we've been saying over the last year or so. Their investment doesn't change our strategy or our priorities. Our interests are aligned, just like with any other shareholder. And as we execute and perform going forward, our interests certainly will continue to be aligned.

    這裡蘊藏著巨大的價值,而這正是我們過去一年來一直強調的。他們的投資不會改變我們的策略或優先事項。我們的利益與他們一致,就像我們與其他股東的利益一樣。而且,隨著我們未來的發展和業績成長,我們的利益也必將繼續保持一致。

  • Andrew Burris Obin - MD

    Andrew Burris Obin - MD

  • Terrific answer. And just a follow-up question. Just going forward, how do you think about the trade-off between increasing R&D investment and keeping your commitment to keeping fixed cost constant?

    回答得非常好。我還有一個後續問題。展望未來,您如何看待增加研發投入和保持固定成本不變這兩者之間的權衡?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

    Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas

  • Well, that's clearly a constant trade-off that we are addressing day in, day out. And running every business is an exercise of allocation of scarce resource. And we are no exception. And we see a lot of value and innovation as we've been kept saying during the course of at least the last 2 years.

    顯然,這是一個我們每天都在權衡取捨的問題。經營任何企業都是對稀缺資源進行分配的過程,我們也不例外。正如我們在過去至少兩年裡一直強調的那樣,我們看到了許多價值和創新。

  • So it is really a matter of allocation of priorities towards innovation. But also go back to what I was saying at the beginning around operational execution, operational execution for us means a lot of opportunity for efficiency. And the efficiency is assured, you can look at our efficiency as a source of funding for innovation, loosely.

    所以,這其實是優先考慮創新方向的問題。但也要回到我一開始提到的營運執行方面,對我們來說,營運執行意味著許多提高效率的機會。而且效率是有保障的,你可以把我們的效率看成是創新資金的來源。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rob Johnson for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我把會議交還給羅伯·約翰遜,請他作總結發言。

  • Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

    Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much, and thank you, everyone, for your time today. As this is my last earnings call, as CEO of Vertiv, I want to take the opportunity to acknowledge and thank a few people.

    非常感謝,也感謝各位今天抽空參加。由於這是我擔任Vertiv執行長的最後一次財報電話會議,我想藉此機會感謝幾位人士。

  • And I'd like to start with Platinum Equity for creating this opportunity and believing in me and supporting us through the turnaround of this great company. I certainly want to thank our customers. I know we've cost pain over the last year, but we're working through that and thank you for sticking with us and sticking loyal to our brand.

    首先,我要感謝Platinum Equity,感謝他們創造了這個機會,信任我,並在我們扭轉這家偉大公司的頹勢時給予支持。我當然也要感謝我們的客戶。我知道過去一年我們承受了成本壓力,但我們正在努力克服困難,感謝你們一直以來對我們的支持和忠誠。

  • The employees for all the work you've done and all the work you're going to have to do going forward. We've got a great '23 to look forward to. So I want to thank the employees, the Board of Directors with a special thanks to Dave Cote for the support and the mentoring and coaching. And of course, I want to thank all the shareowners for their support in Vertiv now and going forward.

    感謝全體員工過去和未來所做的一切努力。我們對2023年充滿期待。因此,我要感謝全體員工、董事會,特別要感謝Dave Cote的支持、指導與訓練。當然,我還要感謝所有股東對Vertiv現在和未來的支持。

  • It's been an honor serving as CEO, and I'm more confident now than ever. The future of Vertiv and its ability to create long-term value for the stakeholders is the brightest days are ahead, and you're in great hands with Giordano as we go forward.

    能夠擔任執行長一職,我深感榮幸,現在我比以往任何時候都更有信心。 Vertiv 的未來及其為利害關係人創造長期價值的能力一片光明,未來一片光明,在 Giordano 的帶領下,我們定能取得更大的成就。

  • So again, thank you for the opportunity to serve you.

    再次感謝您給我服務的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    電話會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告會。您可以斷開連線了。