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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Bailey, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Vertiv's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this call is being recorded.
早上好。我叫 Bailey,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時,我想歡迎大家參加 Vertiv 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意,此通話正在錄音中。
I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我現在想把今天的電話會議的程序交給你的主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Lynne Maxeiner。請繼續。
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call.
謝謝你,貝利。早上好,歡迎來到 Vertiv 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。
Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Rob Johnson; Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon; and Chief Operating Officer and President, Americas, Giordano Albertazzi.
今天加入我的是 Vertiv 的執行主席 Dave Cote;首席執行官羅伯·約翰遜;首席財務官戴維·法倫;首席運營官兼美洲區總裁 Giordano Albertazzi。
Before we begin, I point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv.
在我們開始之前,我指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和運營業績。
These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties and could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual and quarterly reports and other filings with the SEC.
這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,並可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同。我們建議您參考今天的收益發布中包含的警示性語言,您可以在我們的年度和季度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中了解有關這些風險的更多信息。
Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們認為截至該日期合理的假設。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。
During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.
在本次電話會議中,我們還將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的 GAAP 結果和 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節表可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們網站 investors.vertiv.com 上的投資者幻燈片中找到。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.
有了這個,我會把電話轉給執行主席戴夫科特。
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Our third quarter performance continues to support the profile of improvement that we presented in February of this year. Our financial performance escalated in the third quarter, as we anticipated, helped by a record level of price that was realized this quarter.
我們第三季度的業績繼續支持我們在今年 2 月提出的改善情況。正如我們預期的那樣,我們的財務業績在第三季度有所提升,這得益於本季度實現的創紀錄價格水平。
We are doing things differently, especially in the Americas, and we are seeing that translate to an improved financial performance. I know demand is becoming a bigger question for all companies given the macroeconomic environment. Demand win was strong for Vertiv, the data center end market as a true secular demand story, data is just going to continue to grow.
我們正在以不同的方式做事,尤其是在美洲,我們看到這轉化為財務業績的改善。我知道,鑑於宏觀經濟環境,需求正成為所有公司面臨的一個更大問題。 Vertiv 的需求贏得強勁,數據中心終端市場作為一個真正的長期需求故事,數據將繼續增長。
We continue to execute on operational improvements and I'm pleased to report good progress in Americas reflected in the adjusted operating margins improvement.
我們繼續執行運營改進,我很高興地報告美洲的良好進展反映在調整後的運營利潤率提高上。
The work in the Americas is far from done, but there are very encouraging signs. Our operational focus is paying off, and we anticipate this will be visible in our Q4 results in the Americas.
美洲的工作遠未完成,但有非常令人鼓舞的跡象。我們的運營重點正在取得成效,我們預計這將在我們在美洲的第四季度業績中體現出來。
We have another significant step-up in operational performance planned for this quarter. Similar to our last earnings call, David will walk you through in detail why we believe this will happen, and it will sound very consistent with our previous discussion.
我們計劃在本季度進一步提昇運營績效。與我們上次的財報電話會議類似,David 將向您詳細介紹我們相信這會發生的原因,這聽起來與我們之前的討論非常一致。
We made an announcement earlier this month on our CEO Succession Plan. Giordano Albertazzi is the name COO in addition to his duties as America's President till, we find a replacement, and will succeed Rob Johnson as the CEO on January 1 next year.
本月早些時候,我們就 CEO 繼任計劃發布了公告。 Giordano Albertazzi 是 COO 的名字,除了他作為美國總統的職責,直到我們找到替代者,並將於明年 1 月 1 日接替 Rob Johnson 擔任首席執行官。
I work closely with Gio and feel confident, he brings the right leadership and experience to drive Vertiv's performance. Anand, again, thank Rob for all he has done as CEO over the past 6 years in building Vertiv's strong competitive position and foundation for sustained growth.
我與 Gio 密切合作並充滿信心,他帶來了正確的領導能力和經驗來推動 Vertiv 的業績。 Anand,再次感謝 Rob 在過去 6 年擔任首席執行官期間為建立 Vertiv 強大的競爭地位和持續增長的基礎所做的一切。
As we are in the final quarter of this year, I know attention is focused squarely on the setup for 2023. We've provided adjusted operating profit guidance earlier than usual for 2023 that represents a 60% increase over our current guidance for 2022.
正如我們在今年最後一個季度一樣,我知道注意力完全集中在 2023 年的設置上。我們比往常更早地提供了 2023 年調整後的營業利潤指導,比我們目前的 2022 年指導增加了 60%。
People have asked about our visibility given the world is a complicated place right now. While visibility isn't perfect, the management team feels confident in their ability to execute and deliver Q4 and what it portends for 2023, which should be a very good year for Vertiv and for our shareholders.
鑑於當今世界是一個複雜的地方,人們詢問了我們的知名度。雖然可見性並不完美,但管理團隊對他們執行和交付第四季度的能力以及它對 2023 年的預示充滿信心,這對 Vertiv 和我們的股東來說應該是非常好的一年。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.
因此,我將把電話轉給 Rob。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thank you, Dave. Starting with some key messages on Slide 3. We anticipated the volume ramp up in the back half of 2022 and we're certainly seeing it, with organic net sales up 20% in the third quarter, orders, excluding FX, were up 15%, which is even better than our preliminary orders number we provided earlier this month. We continue to see strong long-term market demand signals from our customers.
謝謝你,戴夫。從幻燈片 3 上的一些關鍵信息開始。我們預計 2022 年下半年銷量會增加,我們肯定會看到,第三季度有機淨銷售額增長 20%,訂單(不包括外匯)增長 15% ,這甚至比我們本月早些時候提供的初步訂單數量還要好。我們繼續從客戶那裡看到強勁的長期市場需求信號。
Adjusted operating profit of $134 million was within the guidance range. Our improvement actions are taking hold, and we've seen the improvement building sequentially throughout the year. We delivered again on our price plan, realizing $110 million of price this quarter, and we raised our full year pricing expectations to $365 million.
1.34 億美元的調整後營業利潤在指導範圍內。我們的改進行動正在紮根,而且我們已經看到全年都在按順序進行改進。我們再次交付了價格計劃,本季度實現了 1.1 億美元的價格,並將全年定價預期提高到 3.65 億美元。
We saw price cost split $35 million year-over-year tailwind for this quarter. This tailwind will further strengthen into the fourth quarter and into 2023. Supply chain has improved over the last 90 days, even in some areas that have been hampering this, areas like circuit breakers, fans, and other certain electronic categories.
我們看到本季度的價格成本同比增長 3500 萬美元。這種順風將在第四季度和 2023 年進一步加強。供應鏈在過去 90 天裡有所改善,甚至在一些阻礙這一點的領域,如斷路器、風扇和其他某些電子產品類別。
Our work qualifying alternative suppliers is paying off, and these additional sources of supply support our fourth quarter volume projections. That being said, there are certain categories of power electronics that are still in short supply, and we expect them to remain so throughout at least mid-2023.
我們篩選替代供應商的工作正在取得成效,這些額外的供應來源支持我們第四季度的銷量預測。話雖如此,某些類別的電力電子產品仍然供不應求,我們預計它們至少在 2023 年年中仍將如此。
Free cash flow is trending in the right direction, although we continue to carry high levels of inventory to support our increasing volume as fourth quarter is expected to be a record sales quarter for Vertiv. Orders have remained high, which is a great thing, but it has us carrying more inventory than expected.
自由現金流正朝著正確的方向發展,儘管我們繼續保持高水平的庫存以支持我們不斷增長的銷量,因為第四季度預計將成為 Vertiv 創紀錄的銷售季度。訂單一直居高不下,這是一件好事,但它讓我們持有比預期更多的庫存。
Fourth quarter free cash flow is expected to be an all-time record between $250 million and $300 million positive. And this should set us up, we think, for a great '23. We know our working capital is not optimized, and we are taking the full year projection down from our prior guidance, but we believe there is a significant additional cash benefit in 2023 and we have been working on plans and programs to make sure this happens.
第四季度自由現金流預計將創歷史新高,介於 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間。我們認為,這應該讓我們為一個偉大的 23 年做好準備。我們知道我們的營運資金沒有得到優化,我們正在從之前的指導中下調全年預測,但我們相信 2023 年會有顯著的額外現金收益,我們一直在製定計劃和計劃以確保實現這一目標。
We are affirming the fourth quarter adjusted operating profit guidance of $230 million at the midpoint, which continues to support our view of a very strong fourth quarter and we believe a very good position and very well for 2023.
我們確認第四季度調整後的營業利潤指引為 2.3 億美元的中間值,這繼續支持我們對第四季度非常強勁的看法,我們相信 2023 年的狀況非常好。
Turning to Slide 4. This slide summarizes what we see in our markets by region. A few changes in Americas market view. Enterprise has moved to yellow, indicating a bit of caution, but is consistent with what we've been seeing in other global regions. The Enterprise market is exhibiting more caution given to the macro uncertainty, including the possibility of a recession, but still remains positive.
轉到幻燈片 4。這張幻燈片按地區總結了我們在市場上看到的情況。美洲市場觀點的一些變化。 Enterprise 已變為黃色,表示有點謹慎,但與我們在全球其他地區看到的情況一致。鑑於宏觀不確定性,包括經濟衰退的可能性,企業市場表現出更多的謹慎,但仍然保持樂觀。
The Communication market in Americas has been very strong for a number of quarters, and there's been a lot of investment associated with 5G technology cycle. While it's coming off those high marks, telecom carriers still invest, both in new technology and their existing network infrastructure. EMEA and Asia markets views remain relatively healthy as well. All in all, strong market backdrop continued for what we do.
幾個季度以來,美洲的通信市場一直非常強勁,並且有大量與 5G 技術週期相關的投資。雖然它已經脫離了那些高分,但電信運營商仍在投資新技術和現有網絡基礎設施。 EMEA 和亞洲市場的觀點也保持相對健康。總而言之,強勁的市場背景繼續支持我們的工作。
To note, we have been aggressive with our pricing actions for several quarters now, and we continue to see strong demand. We can get price and the ability has been demonstrated each quarter as we make our way through the year.
需要注意的是,我們幾個季度以來一直在積極採取定價行動,而且我們繼續看到強勁的需求。我們可以獲得價格,並且隨著我們在這一年中的發展,每個季度都展示了這種能力。
Moving to Slide 5. We still feel good about customer demand with orders up 15% in the quarter, excluding FX, and that is compared to last year's third quarter, where orders were up 17% from the prior year. We have highlighted that we anticipate year-over-year orders declining in Q4. That is more a product of a challenging comparison to the prior year. If you recall, orders were up 51% in the same period last year.
轉到幻燈片 5。我們仍然對客戶需求感到滿意,本季度訂單增長 15%(不包括外匯),與去年第三季度相比,訂單比去年同期增長 17%。我們強調,我們預計第四季度訂單同比下降。這更多是與前一年相比具有挑戰性的結果。如果你還記得的話,去年同期的訂單量增長了 51%。
Fourth quarter orders, adjusted FX, are expected to be relatively flat in line with third quarter orders. We posted another record-breaking backlog at the end of September of $4.7 billion, which provides great support as we think about our 2023 top line. We continue to execute on our pricing plan and have delivered pricing consistent with our framework each quarter in 2022.
第四季度訂單,調整後的外匯,預計將與第三季度訂單相對持平。 9 月底,我們又公佈了 47 億美元的破紀錄積壓訂單,這為我們考慮 2023 年的收入提供了巨大支持。我們將繼續執行我們的定價計劃,並在 2022 年每個季度交付符合我們框架的定價。
Our pricing plan of $135 million for fourth quarter includes, 80% already in the backlog and 20% to be realized on book and ship, but those actions have already taken place. We are clearly demonstrating we can get price in our markets.
我們第四季度 1.35 億美元的定價計劃包括,80% 已經在積壓訂單中,20% 將在預訂和發貨中實現,但這些行動已經發生。我們清楚地表明我們可以在我們的市場上獲得價格。
Supply chain has been improving, clearly not without disruption, but seeing things improve. Improving external market conditions, coupled with the extensive work the team has been doing to qualify new suppliers is helping our situation. The one area that is still tight in some of the semiconductor categories we specifically use.
供應鏈一直在改善,顯然並非沒有中斷,但情況有所改善。改善外部市場條件,再加上團隊為使新供應商獲得資格所做的廣泛工作,正在幫助我們改善局面。在我們專門使用的一些半導體類別中,這個領域仍然很緊張。
We use specialized high-end semiconductors different from some of the categories where you've seen in the market, a nice improvement on those. While availability is slightly improving for us in the specialized categories, we expect this tightness in the markets to continue through at least mid-'23.
我們使用與您在市場上看到的某些類別不同的專業高端半導體,這是對這些類別的一個很好的改進。雖然我們在專業類別中的可用性略有改善,但我們預計市場緊張至少會持續到 23 世紀中期。
Some good news as it relates to our fan supplier. They are fully qualified and shipping production parts to us. There is favorability in the commodity and freight markets. We typically have 1 quarter lag before that reads through our P&L, but we anticipate seeing more favorability in fourth quarter and going on into 2023.
一些與我們的風扇供應商有關的好消息。他們完全合格並向我們運送生產零件。大宗商品和貨運市場受到青睞。在閱讀我們的損益表之前,我們通常會有 1 個季度的滯後,但我們預計在第四季度和 2023 年會看到更多的青睞。
Even with some good news at our back, we did raise the inflation estimate for the year by $15 million, with $5 million being realized in Q3, and $10 million anticipated in Q4. This is related to 2 primary factors: one, our regional sales mix is more heavily weighted to higher inflation zones. And we're also seeing some additional inflation in EMEA, mainly related to energy costs.
即使有一些好消息,我們還是將今年的通貨膨脹估計提高了 1500 萬美元,其中 500 萬美元在第三季度實現,預計在第四季度達到 1000 萬美元。這與 2 個主要因素有關:第一,我們的區域銷售組合更傾向於高通脹區域。我們還看到歐洲、中東和非洲地區出現了一些額外的通貨膨脹,主要與能源成本有關。
In summary, our markets remain healthy. While recession proof is a strong term, there is an argument to be made, as Dave said, data will continue to grow through these economic cycles. That data has to be networked, has to be stored, and has to be processed in data centers where our equipment is. We are the market and technology leaders, and we are getting paid for what we do.
總之,我們的市場保持健康。雖然經濟衰退證明是一個強有力的術語,但正如戴夫所說,有一個論點是,數據將在這些經濟周期中繼續增長。這些數據必須聯網,必須存儲,並且必須在我們設備所在的數據中心進行處理。我們是市場和技術的領導者,我們會因所做的事得到報酬。
Supply chain pressures, as I mentioned earlier, are easing, and we're seeing that benefit and expect that to continue to improve. Coupled with the work we have done to onboard new suppliers, we are proving operationally each quarter, and you're seeing it in our financial performance.
正如我之前提到的,供應鏈壓力正在緩解,我們看到了這種好處,並預計這種情況會繼續改善。再加上我們為招募新供應商所做的工作,我們每個季度都在證明運營,您可以在我們的財務業績中看到這一點。
Now I'll turn the call over to David to walk us through the financials. David?
現在我會把電話轉給大衛,讓我們了解財務狀況。大衛?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Perfect. Thanks, Rob. Turning to Page 6. This slide summarizes our third quarter financial results.
完美的。謝謝,羅布。翻到第 6 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們第三季度的財務業績。
Our net sales increased 21% from last year's third quarter and were up 20% organically, including 11% from volume and 9% from pricing. The E&I acquisition contributed $115 million, partially offset by $25 million from the sale of the Industrial UPS business at the end of last year.
我們的淨銷售額比去年第三季度增長 21%,有機增長 20%,其中銷量增長 11%,定價增長 9%。 E&I 的收購貢獻了 1.15 億美元,部分被去年年底出售工業 UPS 業務的 2500 萬美元所抵消。
Foreign currency translation negatively impacted net sales by approximately $85 million, with about 2/3 of that in EMEA due to the weakening of both the euro and the British pound.
由於歐元和英鎊的疲軟,外幣換算對淨銷售額產生了約 8500 萬美元的負面影響,其中約 2/3 發生在歐洲、中東和非洲地區。
Adjusted operating profit of $134 million was within our guidance range, but at the lower end, primarily due to an incremental $10 million foreign exchange headwind compared to what we assumed this past August.
1.34 億美元的調整後營業利潤在我們的指導範圍內,但處於較低端,這主要是由於與我們去年 8 月的假設相比增加了 1000 萬美元的外匯逆風。
This foreign exchange headwind includes both translation and transactional impacts within the regions where we buy and sell in currencies other than functional. Compared to prior year, we generated an additional $3 million of adjusted operating profit with the primary drivers summarized at the bottom of this page.
這種外匯逆風包括我們以功能貨幣以外的貨幣進行買賣的地區內的換算和交易影響。與上一年相比,我們額外產生了 300 萬美元的調整後營業利潤,主要驅動因素總結在本頁底部。
Of note, as promised, we flipped the price/cost equation from negative to positive, generating a $35 million tailwind in the third quarter. We expect this tailwind to strengthen to about $80 million in the fourth quarter as we continue to deliver on our pricing commitments.
值得注意的是,正如所承諾的那樣,我們將價格/成本等式從負數變為正數,在第三季度產生了 3500 萬美元的順風。隨著我們繼續履行我們的定價承諾,我們預計第四季度這種順風將增強至約 8000 萬美元。
Adjusted operating margin sequentially improved to 9.1% in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second quarter as we continue our margin expansion actions, expecting approximately 14% in the fourth quarter, which would be a record quarterly high.
隨著我們繼續我們的利潤率擴張行動,第三季度調整後的營業利潤率從第二季度的 5.9% 連續提高至 9.1%,預計第四季度約為 14%,這將創下季度新高。
Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.23 for the quarter, which was in line with August guidance, and $0.03 higher than last year, primarily due to the timing of income tax expense, partially offset by higher year-over-year interest expense, primarily due to debt pursuant to the E&I acquisition.
本季度調整後的攤薄每股收益為 0.23 美元,與 8 月份的指引一致,比去年同期高出 0.03 美元,這主要是由於所得稅費用的時間安排,部分被同比利息費用增加所抵消,主要是由於債務根據 E&I 收購。
Third quarter free cash flow was a use of $20 million. This use moderated sequentially in the third quarter from the second quarter. We anticipate free cash flow to be significantly positive, in fact, a record high in the fourth quarter.
第三季度自由現金流使用了 2000 萬美元。這種使用在第三季度從第二季度開始逐漸減少。我們預計自由現金流將非常積極,事實上,第四季度創歷史新高。
We spoke about an inventory reduction opportunity in 2023 on our last call, and we still believe this will happen. Supply chains are improving as our internal SIOP processes, both of which should contribute to lower inventory balances going forward.
我們在上次電話會議上談到了 2023 年的庫存減少機會,我們仍然相信這會發生。隨著我們的內部 SIOP 流程,供應鏈正在改善,這兩者都應該有助於降低未來的庫存餘額。
Next, turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our third quarter segment results. All regions saw strong double-digit organic sales growth. The Americas region grew organically approximately 25%, equally balanced between volume and price. Americas adjusted operating profit of $115 million and margin of 16.2% were positively impacted from improved price/cost, but offset by higher investment in fixed costs, including to support the launch of our new Monterrey facility.
接下來,轉到第 7 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們第三季度的業績。所有地區都實現了強勁的兩位數有機銷售增長。美洲地區有機增長約 25%,量價齊升。美洲調整後營業利潤為 1.15 億美元,利潤率為 16.2%,這受到價格/成本改善的積極影響,但被固定成本投資增加所抵消,包括支持我們新蒙特雷工廠的啟動。
We are encouraged with the margin improvement in the Americas from 11% in the first quarter to an expected 20% in the fourth quarter, an in-year increase of 900 basis points. Still significant work to do, still significant opportunity, but the operational improvements Giordano and his team have introduced are certainly gaining traction.
我們對美洲的利潤率從第一季度的 11% 提高到第四季度的預期 20% 感到鼓舞,同比增長 900 個基點。仍有大量工作要做,仍有大量機會,但 Giordano 和他的團隊引入的運營改進無疑正在獲得牽引力。
Organic sales in APAC increased 17% from last year's third quarter, 70% from volume, 30% from price. Operating margins increased 150 basis points, primarily due to favorable price cost and volume leverage.
亞太地區有機銷售額比去年第三季度增長 17%,其中銷量增長 70%,價格增長 30%。營業利潤率增加了 150 個基點,這主要是由於有利的價格成本和銷量槓桿。
Finally, on this slide, EMEA sales were up 14% organically, 2/3 of that from price and 1/3 from volume. As a reminder, EMEA had the most challenging year-over-year comparison as organic sales were up almost 18% in last year's third quarter.
最後,在這張幻燈片上,EMEA 銷售額有機增長 14%,其中 2/3 來自價格,1/3 來自銷量。提醒一下,EMEA 的同比比較最具挑戰性,因為有機銷售額在去年第三季度增長了近 18%。
Inflation has been more pervasive in EMEA recently, at least compared to the other regions, especially related to energy and our price realization in that region did not fully offset these inflationary headwinds in the third quarter.
最近,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的通貨膨脹更為普遍,至少與其他地區相比是這樣,尤其是與能源相關的通貨膨脹,我們在該地區實現的價格並沒有完全抵消第三季度的這些通貨膨脹逆風。
As a result, EMEA experienced a small price cost headwind in Q3. We continue to evaluate this inflation and our pricing response, but we do anticipate price cost to be positive in EMEA for the fourth quarter, and we do anticipate a fairly significant step-up in operating margin in the fourth quarter as well.
因此,歐洲、中東和非洲地區在第三季度經歷了小幅價格成本逆風。我們繼續評估這種通貨膨脹和我們的定價反應,但我們確實預計第四季度 EMEA 的價格成本將為正,並且我們確實預計第四季度的營業利潤率也會有相當顯著的提高。
Turning to Slide 8. We summarize our updated fourth quarter financial guidance, reaffirming adjusted operating profit of $220 million to $240 million provided earlier this month. All metrics on this slide would be record quarterly highs and by significant margins, including free cash flow, which is projected to be between $250 million and $300 million.
轉到幻燈片 8。我們總結了我們更新的第四季度財務指導,重申本月早些時候提供的調整後營業利潤為 2.2 億美元至 2.4 億美元。這張幻燈片上的所有指標都將創下季度新高,利潤率可觀,包括預計在 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間的自由現金流。
Of course, we still have to execute, and there is much work to be done to capture significant opportunity going forward, but as we have consistently communicated since the beginning of the year, this strong fourth quarter should provide a solid foundation for a very good 2023. This slide provides a lot of detail compared to last year's fourth quarter, and it captures the progress we have made in 12 months, notably the $135 million of incremental pricing.
當然,我們仍然需要執行,並且要抓住未來的重要機會還有很多工作要做,但正如我們自年初以來一直在溝通的那樣,這個強勁的第四季度應該為非常好的2023 年。與去年第四季度相比,這張幻燈片提供了很多細節,它記錄了我們在 12 個月內取得的進展,尤其是 1.35 億美元的增量定價。
Despite this year-over-year improvement, probably more important for investors to understand the doability of the strong fourth quarter, is the incremental bridge from this year's third quarter, which we will cover in a couple of slides.
儘管同比有所改善,但對於投資者了解強勁的第四季度的可行性而言,可能更重要的是今年第三季度的增量橋樑,我們將在幾張幻燈片中介紹。
Turning to Page 9. This slide summarizes our revised full year financial guidance, reconfirming adjusted operating profit of $450 million to $470 million provided earlier this month. As Rob mentioned in his key messages earlier, we are reducing full year free cash flow guidance by $125 million at the midpoint with approximately $60 million of that from changed expectations for year-end inventory, $30 million from lower expected EBITDA, and $30 million from lower expected cash collections.
翻到第 9 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們修訂後的全年財務指導,再次確認了本月早些時候提供的 4.5 億至 4.7 億美元的調整後營業利潤。正如 Rob 在其之前的關鍵信息中提到的那樣,我們將全年自由現金流量指引在中點減少了 1.25 億美元,其中約 6000 萬美元來自年終庫存預期的改變,3000 萬美元來自較低的預期 EBITDA,以及 3000 萬美元來自較低的預期現金回款。
We had previously projected a more significant inventory reduction by year-end, but as we enter the fourth quarter with record projected sales volumes, and we anticipate continued strong volumes at the beginning of next year, we have reassessed those targets and will not press actions simply to hit a target.
我們之前曾預計年底前庫存會大幅減少,但隨著我們以創紀錄的銷量進入第四季度,並且我們預計明年年初銷量將持續強勁,我們已經重新評估了這些目標,不會採取行動只是為了擊中目標。
As mentioned, we have made good progress with SIOP, notably in the Americas. We have seen benefits from improved processes, and we still anticipate an inventory reduction at some point in 2023.
如前所述,我們在 SIOP 方面取得了良好進展,尤其是在美洲。我們已經看到改進流程帶來的好處,我們仍然預計 2023 年某個時候庫存會減少。
Another driver of reduced full year free cash flow estimate is related to the delay of cash collection enhancements, including driving more significant advanced payments for large orders. This delay is temporal as we expect to see benefits from these actions in 2023.
全年自由現金流量估計減少的另一個驅動因素與現金收集增強的延遲有關,包括推動大訂單的更重要的預付款。這種延遲是暫時的,因為我們預計將在 2023 年看到這些行動帶來的好處。
Nevertheless, fourth quarter free cash flow is expected to be a record quarterly high. $175 million was the previous high, and free cash flow will be an absolute focus for us in 2023. Certainly understanding that margin improvement will not translate into value creation unless we convert that into cash.
儘管如此,第四季度的自由現金流預計將創下季度新高。 1.75 億美元是之前的高點,自由現金流將成為我們 2023 年的絕對關注點。當然,除非我們將利潤率提高轉化為現金,否則我們不會將其轉化為價值創造。
Next, moving to Page 10. This is a format of a slide we shared back in August to provide transparency with our plan to achieve fourth quarter projections. The main drivers are similar to last time, with the most significant difference being the addition of some very volatile foreign exchange.
接下來,轉到第 10 頁。這是我們在 8 月份分享的幻燈片格式,旨在為我們實現第四季度預測的計劃提供透明度。主要驅動因素與上次類似,最顯著的區別是增加了一些非常不穩定的外匯。
The macro story is relatively straightforward outside of FX, our fourth quarter lift from third quarter should be driven by volume and price. We discussed the drivers of the volume increase last quarter, including the launch of our Monterrey facility, improving supply chain dynamics and normal favorable fourth quarter seasonality. The volume lift is more pronounced in the Americas and EMEA in the fourth quarter, but APAC is expecting a nice increase as well.
外匯之外的宏觀故事相對簡單,我們從第三季度到第四季度的增長應該是由數量和價格推動的。我們討論了上個季度銷量增長的驅動因素,包括啟動我們的蒙特雷工廠、改善供應鏈動態和正常有利的第四季度季節性。第四季度美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷量提升更為明顯,但亞太地區預計也將出現不錯的增長。
Pricing is expected to provide an additional $40 million of operating profit in the fourth quarter with 80% of fourth quarter pricing already in backlog. Now of course, we still have to execute to achieve these strong results, but we certainly have clear line of sight to the fourth quarter performance, which we hope this slide demonstrates.
定價預計將在第四季度提供額外的 4000 萬美元營業利潤,第四季度定價的 80% 已經積壓。現在當然,我們仍然必須執行以實現這些強勁的結果,但我們對第四季度的表現當然有清晰的視線,我們希望這張幻燈片能夠證明這一點。
Next, turning to Slide 11. We have very often discussed internally and externally, holding ourselves accountable to the quarterly sales and earnings profile we presented back in February. This slide visually captures what we said in February and how our results line up with that profile.
接下來,轉向幻燈片 11。我們經常在內部和外部進行討論,讓我們自己對我們在 2 月份提交的季度銷售和收益概況負責。這張幻燈片直觀地記錄了我們在 2 月份所說的話,以及我們的結果如何與該概況相吻合。
February guidance is depicted with the bars, the blue being adjusted for foreign exchange. Our results, both actual and what we expect for the fourth quarter are depicted with the black line. As you can see, both sales and profitability trajectory profiles are very much consistent with our February guidance with our expected fourth quarter adjusted operating profit, when adjusted for foreign exchange, very consistent with what we said at the beginning of the year.
2 月份的指引用條形圖表示,藍色是根據外匯調整的。我們的結果,包括實際結果和我們對第四季度的預期,都用黑線表示。正如您所看到的,銷售和盈利軌跡概況與我們 2 月份的指導非常一致,我們預計第四季度調整後的營業利潤在針對外匯進行調整後,與我們年初所說的非常一致。
So with that said, I now turn it back over to Dave Cote. Dave?
因此,話雖如此,我現在將其轉回給 Dave Cote。戴夫?
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Hang on. 2.5 years of working remotely, and I still can't remember to hit the unmute button.
不掛斷。遠程工作 2.5 年,我仍然不記得按下取消靜音按鈕。
I said a few things about Gio in my opening remarks, but I'd like to expand on that a bit. Gio is an industry veteran. He's an operator at (inaudible) and he's been with Vertiv for over 24 years, serving in a variety of operational capacities and really given the terrific background to run a company. He drove significant operational and financial improvements while leading EMEA, tripling the adjusted operating profit in that region to over 18% in a 3-year period ending in '21.
我在開場白中談到了一些關於 Gio 的事情,但我想對此進行一些擴展。 Gio 是行業資深人士。他是 (聽不清) 的一名操作員,他在 Vertiv 工作了 24 年多,擔任過各種運營職務,並且確實擁有經營公司的絕佳背景。在領導 EMEA 的同時,他推動了重大的運營和財務改進,在截至 21 世紀末的 3 年期間,該地區調整後的營業利潤增長了兩倍,達到 18% 以上。
And we're seeing the early stages of a turnaround story shaping the Americas, where margin has sequentially been increasing. The SIOP process has been greatly improved. And a focus on creating a high-performing culture is apparent within the organization. He knows a lot about the industry and has a track record of performance in both Europe and the Americas, which together represent about 70% of Vertiv sales.
我們正在看到塑造美洲的轉機故事的早期階段,那裡的利潤率一直在增加。 SIOP工藝得到了極大的改進。並且在組織內明顯注重創建高績效文化。他對這個行業瞭如指掌,並且在歐洲和美洲都有業績記錄,這兩個地區合計約佔 Vertiv 銷售額的 70%。
His broad operational background and that success uniquely positioned him to turn Vertiv into a high-performing business. He is the right person to lead this company and at the right time. So I ask Gio to talk a bit about his work on the Americas, the key initiatives underway, and to provide some early thoughts on 2023 that provide an introduction -- a better introduction to all of you of our incoming CEO. So, Gio?
他廣泛的運營背景和成功使他能夠將 Vertiv 轉變為一家高性能企業。他是在正確的時間領導這家公司的正確人選。因此,我請 Gio 談談他在美洲的工作、正在進行的關鍵舉措,並提供一些關於 2023 年的早期想法,這些想法提供了一個介紹——更好地介紹我們即將上任的首席執行官。那麼,吉奧?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Thank you, Dave. Thanks a lot. I appreciate the kind introduction.
謝謝你,戴夫。非常感謝。我很欣賞親切的介紹。
I want to assure everyone the transition is well underway, and we expect it to be quite similar actually. That is correct, I'm an operator at (inaudible). It is my passion. I'd say it's my natural in many respects. And I think I can add considerable value. I'd like to share some things we've been working on in the Americas.
我想向每個人保證過渡正在順利進行,我們希望它實際上非常相似。沒錯,我是(聽不清)的接線員。這是我的熱情。我會說這在很多方面都是我的天性。而且我認為我可以增加可觀的價值。我想分享一些我們一直在美洲開展的工作。
Since March, we have done quite a lot, the full assessment, the transformation plan focused on getting price, ensuring leadership accountability, strengthening communication processes, operational excellence, systems and certainly fostering a strong sense of urgency. We have improved the SIOP process, have simplified the organization to focus on accountability and speed. We're driving the Americas regions towards a high-performance culture.
自 3 月以來,我們做了很多工作,全面評估、轉型計劃側重於定價、確保領導問責制、加強溝通流程、卓越運營、系統,當然還有培養強烈的緊迫感。我們改進了 SIOP 流程,簡化了組織以專注於問責制和速度。我們正在推動美洲地區走向高績效文化。
Still in the early stages, but I'm encouraged by the sequential improvements we are experiencing.
仍處於早期階段,但我對我們正在經歷的連續改進感到鼓舞。
Let's turn to Slide 13. As I think about 2023, focus areas are clear and consistent with what we have been working on, margin improvement, price and cost, free cash flow generation, working capital improvements and profitable growth. We know the levers to achieve these objectives. We will have operational teams focused and accountable to meeting that. We will do so with a keen sense of urgency and rigor.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 13。在我看來,到 2023 年,重點領域是明確的,並且與我們一直在努力的目標一致:利潤率提高、價格和成本、自由現金流產生、營運資本改善和盈利增長。我們知道實現這些目標的槓桿。我們將讓運營團隊專注於並負責實現這一目標。我們將以強烈的緊迫感和嚴謹的態度這樣做。
Slide 14, please. And this slide shows some of our early thoughts on 2023. As you can see, visually, you should have more tailwinds than headwinds. Our backlog and order pace support healthy top line for 2023. End market demand is strong. We know how to get price. Additionally, we have some moderation of commodity and trade costs, and this year fixed cost will be held constant.
請放幻燈片 14。這張幻燈片展示了我們對 2023 年的一些早期想法。正如你所看到的,從視覺上看,你應該有更多的順風而不是逆風。我們的積壓訂單和訂單速度支持 2023 年的健康收入。終端市場需求強勁。我們知道如何獲得價格。此外,商品和貿易成本有所下降,今年固定成本將保持不變。
Cash will be helped by overall improved profitability, but also from unlocking significant working capital opportunities. These objectives are well within reach. There will also be some headwinds, certain categories of electronics as Rob say, remain tight, and there will be inflationary pressure as it relates to energy costs in EMEA, as an example. That will not only impact us, but also impact our suppliers.
整體盈利能力的提高以及釋放大量營運資本機會將有助於現金。這些目標是可以實現的。也會有一些不利因素,如 Rob 所說,某些類別的電子產品仍然緊張,並且會出現通貨膨脹壓力,因為它與 EMEA 的能源成本有關,例如。這不僅會影響我們,還會影響我們的供應商。
FX remains volatile. There has been much discussion on potential recession. We don't expect it should have a big impact on our sales, but we are taking steps right now, for example, to restrict external hiring in anticipation. We believe that at the same time, sorry. But I like the view from here we can navigate these uncertainties, because we participate in a very -- in very good end markets. We are market and technology leaders. We have global scale. We have tremendous installed base, and we are very relevant with the key customers in our markets.
外匯仍然波動。人們對潛在的經濟衰退進行了很多討論。我們預計這不會對我們的銷售產生重大影響,但我們現在正在採取措施,例如,限制預期的外部招聘。我們相信,同時,抱歉。但我喜歡這裡的觀點,我們可以駕馭這些不確定性,因為我們參與了一個非常 - 非常好的終端市場。我們是市場和技術領導者。我們有全球規模。我們擁有龐大的安裝基礎,並且與市場上的主要客戶非常相關。
We have a sharp focus on operational execution and excellence. We believe 2023 can be a very good year for Vertiv and Vertiv's shareholders. And candidly, as you may have picked up on this already in the last few minutes, I truly love this business and I indeed, I love the company profoundly. I'm very excited about Vertiv's future. And you can tell I have a lot of passion, sometimes my passion takes over, and I tend to overelaborate on things. Hey, my Italian heritage must mean something indeed. So please bear with me. Work item and the upcoming Q&A, certainly an opportunity to prove myself.
我們非常注重運營執行和卓越。我們相信 2023 年對於 Vertiv 和 Vertiv 的股東來說將是非常好的一年。坦率地說,正如您在過去幾分鐘內可能已經意識到的那樣,我真的很喜歡這個行業,而且我確實非常喜歡這家公司。我對 Vertiv 的未來感到非常興奮。你可以看出我有很多激情,有時我的激情會佔據上風,而且我傾向於在事情上過度闡述。嘿,我的意大利血統一定很有意義。所以請多多包涵。工作項目和即將到來的問答,當然是一個證明自己的機會。
But before that, I want to wholeheartedly thank Rob for all he has done for Vertiv in the last 6 years. It was a lot of heavy lifting to do as we became a Vertiv, a stand-alone company 6 years ago. Rob took what was almost a $4 billion start-up and transformed it into a growth company. We are the partner of choice of our customers, and we are very relevant across the entire market space. This happened thanks to Rob's leadership. We are grateful. So big thank you. Big thank you, Rob.
但在此之前,我要衷心感謝 Rob 在過去 6 年中為 Vertiv 所做的一切。 6 年前,當我們成為 Vertiv(一家獨立的公司)時,我們要做很多繁重的工作。 Rob 接管了一家市值近 40 億美元的初創公司,並將其轉變為一家成長型公司。我們是客戶的首選合作夥伴,我們在整個市場領域都非常重要。這要歸功於 Rob 的領導。我們很感激。非常感謝。非常感謝你,羅伯。
With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator, who will open the line for questions. Thank you very much.
有了這個,我們現在將把電話轉給接線員,接線員將打開問題熱線。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
(操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Congratulations, Gio. Good luck to you, Rob. Maybe this one is for you, Gio. I know it's early in your tenure in the Americas, but maybe you could give us a little more color into what has been the low-hanging fruit that you've been able to consume in the Americas to help boost margin over the last couple of quarters?
恭喜你,吉奧。祝你好運,羅伯。也許這是給你的,Gio。我知道你在美洲的任期還很早,但也許你可以給我們更多的顏色來了解你在美洲消費的低垂果實,以幫助提高過去幾年的利潤率宿舍?
And what do you think is going to be more difficult to change and/or could take longer to change within the Americas organization versus your original expectations?
與您最初的預期相比,您認為在美洲組織內哪些方面更難改變和/或可能需要更長時間才能改變?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
I would point to 3 things here, Andy. Certainly, a lot of focus on the pricing muscle that we reinforced dramatically. And I think we start to see the results. A lot of focus, as I said, on making sure that there is accountability and accountability happens also through very strong governance and a very consistent way of running the region operationally.
安迪,我要指出三件事。當然,很多人都關注我們大幅加強的定價能力。我認為我們開始看到結果。正如我所說,很多重點都放在確保問責制和問責制上,也通過非常強大的治理和非常一致的運營方式來管理該地區。
One thing that we have done, and we've been vocal about is, a return to office by which we make sure that everyone cooperate and stays focused on delivering on our objectives. And it's a part of a cultural transformation towards making this truly a high-performance culture, not just the Americas, because entire plan is that has started to deliver the dividends, I believe.
我們已經做的一件事,而且我們一直在直言不諱,那就是重返辦公室,我們確保每個人都合作並專注於實現我們的目標。這是文化轉型的一部分,旨在使這種文化成為真正的高績效文化,而不僅僅是美洲,因為我相信整個計劃已經開始帶來紅利。
But then we can elaborate on other elements that are the improvements of capacity, opening the Monterrey factory being probably the most visible example, but think about a broader capacity enhancement effort that has gone through across the entire business.
但隨後我們可以詳細說明提高產能的其他要素,蒙特雷工廠的開業可能是最明顯的例子,但想想整個企業已經進行的更廣泛的產能提升工作。
The job we have done on reinforcing processes. And I always like to mention and also Dave did talk about the SIOP, the sales inventory operations planning that is really the end-to-end glue that connects our ability to deliver to the ability of telling the customer -- sorry, the suppliers, what we will need in the future, all the more reasons crucial in times in which supply chain is complicated.
我們在加強流程方面所做的工作。我總是喜歡提到,Dave 也確實談到了 SIOP,銷售庫存運營計劃實際上是端到端的粘合劑,它將我們的交付能力與告訴客戶的能力聯繫起來——對不起,供應商,我們將來需要什麼,在供應鏈複雜的時代更重要的原因。
I would add to the equation, the strong effort that we've been doing is, as we benefiting still doing to multisource critical components, all elements that have contributed is an orchestration. There's no one kind of a -- 1 super bullet here.
我想補充一點,我們一直在做的巨大努力是,正如我們仍在對多源關鍵組件所做的那樣,所有貢獻的元素都是一個編排。這裡沒有一種——一顆超級子彈。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Very helpful, Gio. And then maybe just stepping back, can you give us more color into the market environment you guys are seeing? There obviously are a couple more yellows in the Americas now in terms of the markets you highlighted. Have you seen any deferrals in orders within your core Enterprise end markets?
很有幫助,吉奧。然後也許只是退後一步,你能給我們更多關於你們所看到的市場環境的色彩嗎?就您強調的市場而言,現在美洲顯然有更多的黃色。您是否看到核心企業終端市場的訂單有任何延期?
And could you elaborate on the stability of CapEx from Enterprise and Communications customers, particularly in the Americas? And what gives you confidence that cloud and colocation customers will stay green moving forward?
您能否詳細說明企業和通信客戶資本支出的穩定性,尤其是在美洲?是什麼讓您相信雲和託管客戶將保持綠色發展?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Yes. I would say that order cancellation is absolutely within the norm, what we -- within the norm or normal business cycle. So there, I'd say de minimis. What we have -- what we continue to see and have evidence, not just from our order intake, but also from the multiple conversations that we're having with all the relevant and large hyperscale and colo players, that Rob and I are doing also as part of the handover process, is that demand is there, and demand continues to be robust.
是的。我會說取消訂單絕對是正常的,我們在正常或正常的商業周期內。所以在那裡,我會說微量。我們所擁有的——我們繼續看到並擁有的證據,不僅來自我們的訂單接收,還來自我們與所有相關的大型超大規模和託管服務器的多次對話,羅布和我也在做作為移交過程的一部分,需求是存在的,而且需求繼續保持強勁。
On the Enterprise side, we just want to be a little bit more signal with some caution, but it's not for kind of an evidence of weakening of the signal. It's just that probably the macroeconomic environment might signal was a bit more prudent. But I remain quite positive about the strength of the market in the Americas going forward.
在企業方面,我們只是想謹慎地發出更多信號,但這並不是信號減弱的證據。只是宏觀經濟環境可能發出更為審慎的信號。但我對美洲市場未來的實力仍然非常樂觀。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
So Gio for Enterprise, it's not so much what you're seeing, but just prudent caution moving forward. Is that fair?
所以 Gio for Enterprise,與其說是你所看到的,不如說是謹慎行事。這公平嗎?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
That's fair. That's absolutely fair. That's fair, Andy.
這還算公平。這絕對公平。這很公平,安迪。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Congratulations. Can you just give us a little bit of color as kind of snapping the line today and looking at what price you have in backlog and where commodities stand? What -- how much of that bridge to next year is -- reflects kind of what's prevailing today from that perspective, price cost-wise? Just math.
恭喜。你能給我們一些顏色作為今天的搶斷線並查看你的積壓價格和商品價格嗎?什麼 - 通往明年的橋樑有多少 - 反映了從價格成本角度來看今天流行的東西?只是數學。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Yes. Good question, Steve. This is David. I used to had to say this is David, because they would confuse Gary and my voice. I don't think they'll do that with Giordano.
是的。是的。問得好,史蒂夫。這是大衛。我以前不得不說這是大衛,因為他們會混淆加里和我的聲音。我認為他們不會對 Giordano 這樣做。
But -- so when you look at the progression of price through 2022, we consistently said we had to burn through the backlog that was included in pricing or the pricing that was in backlog at the end of '21. So I think 80% of our sales in the first quarter of this year, was in backlog at the end of '21. In the fourth quarter, only 20% of our sales will be in backlog from 2021.
但是 - 因此,當您查看到 2022 年的價格進展時,我們一直表示我們必須解決定價中包含的積壓或 21 年底積壓的定價。所以我認為我們今年第一季度 80% 的銷售額是在 21 年底積壓的。從 2021 年開始,第四季度我們只有 20% 的銷售額處於積壓狀態。
And as a result, you can see the significant increase in ramp-up of pricing during the year. So I think we had $40 million in Q1, and we'll have $135 million of year-over-year pricing in Q4.
結果,您可以看到年內定價的顯著增加。所以我認為第一季度我們有 4000 萬美元,第四季度我們將有 1.35 億美元的同比定價。
I don't want to say we've reached a level of stability with pricing, but certainly, as it translates into profitability in the P&L, the fourth quarter will really be that first quarter where we can demonstrate what we can do as it relates to pricing at the level that arguably, we probably should have been pricing at.
我不想說我們已經達到了定價的穩定水平,但可以肯定的是,隨著它轉化為損益表中的盈利能力,第四季度將真正成為第一季度,我們可以展示我們可以做的相關事情以可以說我們可能應該定價的水平定價。
So if you look at the wraparound impact for 2023 from pricing, and this just assumes that we keep the same pricing levels exiting Q4 into 2023, it's about $150 million to $200 million. We would expect to do better than that, because we continue with our pricing efforts.
因此,如果您從定價中查看 2023 年的環繞影響,而這只是假設我們在 2023 年第四季度保持相同的定價水平,則約為 1.5 億至 2 億美元。我們預計會做得更好,因為我們會繼續努力定價。
As it relates to inflation for next year, it's probably too soon. We certainly think there will be a year-over-year gross headwind from inflation. But from just about any perspective, we certainly would expect to be price cost positive next year, but probably too early to quantify what we think the impact will be for inflation.
由於它與明年的通貨膨脹有關,現在可能還為時過早。我們當然認為通貨膨脹將帶來同比總逆風。但從幾乎任何角度來看,我們當然都希望明年價格成本為正,但量化我們認為對通脹的影響可能還為時過早。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
So then I guess that's kind of like if we assume no inflation, that's part of the way there. I think there's a bit more of a gap you have to bridge. I mean, what are you assuming volume growth? Or are you like -- are there one-timers that reverse out of this year? Like, maybe just a bit more color on the bridge or any other items?
所以我想這有點像如果我們假設沒有通貨膨脹,那是其中的一部分。我認為您必須彌合更多的差距。我的意思是,你假設銷量增長是多少?或者你喜歡 - 今年是否有逆轉的一次性?就像,也許只是在橋上或任何其他項目上多一點顏色?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Probably too early to add a whole lot of detail to 2023. I know we put that $730 million to $750 million number out there at -- in August, and we reconfirm that. But as it relates to kind of filling in the details, it's probably too soon. And we'll provide a more robust bridge from '22 to '23 in February.
是的。在 2023 年添加大量細節可能還為時過早。我知道我們在 8 月份提出了 7.3 億至 7.5 億美元的數字,我們再次確認了這一點。但由於涉及到某種程度上的細節填寫,現在可能還為時過早。我們將在 2 月提供從 22 到 23 的更強大的橋樑。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.
今天的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Maybe back to Gio. Gio, with the long history at Emerson and then through Platinum ownership and the like, obviously, you've seen a lot of ups and downs and kind of some turmoil in this business. I think you partially answered my question to your response to Andy, but just kind of stepping back, big picture.
也許回到吉奧。 Gio,憑藉在 Emerson 的悠久歷史,然後通過 Platinum 所有權等,顯然,您已經看到了這個行業的許多起起落落和某種動盪。我認為你部分回答了我對安迪的回應的問題,但只是退後一步,大局。
What holistically do you want to drive going forward? And do you have a comfort level with this kind of a longer-range forecast of this being upwards of a 20% margin business on an annualized basis going forward?
您想從整體上推動什麼?您是否對這種未來年化利潤率超過 20% 的業務的長期預測感到滿意?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Well, clearly, I have confidence in what we have shared, and thank you for the question.
嗯,很明顯,我對我們分享的內容充滿信心,謝謝你提出這個問題。
The -- as -- and all time -- a long time, let me say, because I've seen the company evolve over time. And I would say this company that has still a big potential to -- a big potential to operate in a more effective way.
一直以來——很長一段時間,讓我說,因為我看到公司隨著時間的推移而發展。我會說這家公司仍然有很大的潛力——以更有效的方式運營的巨大潛力。
Again, the focus areas as I was mentioning, really around operational execution, continued margin expansion. We have work to do as we're saying on working capital and very, very central is our cultural evolution towards the high-performance culture.
同樣,正如我提到的那樣,重點領域實際上是圍繞運營執行、持續的利潤率擴張。正如我們在營運資金方面所說的那樣,我們有工作要做,非常非常重要的是我們向高性能文化的文化演變。
Again, I've worked in many parts of the organization. So not only under a different brand, if you will, but also in multiple roles. So I believe I have an ability to lead the organization that is pretty advantages, let me say.
同樣,我曾在組織的許多部門工作過。因此,如果您願意,不僅可以在不同的品牌下,而且可以擔任多個角色。所以我相信我有能力領導一個非常有優勢的組織,讓我說。
And again, no magic wands, no silver bullet, it's a lot of focus on operational execution, on -- focusing on the things that matter to drive cash and to drive profitability. But again, it's enabling that with a cultural enhancement that we have started to drive.
再一次,沒有魔杖,沒有靈丹妙藥,它非常注重運營執行,專注於推動現金和盈利能力的重要事情。但同樣,它通過我們已經開始推動的文化提升來實現這一點。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
And then on execution as David Fallon so appropriately said, you still actually have to deliver the guide. But can you give us a little bit more perspective on how much of the guide is in your hands as opposed just kind of executing on backlog versus real question marks about supply availability, maybe question mark still about Monterrey being able to fully wrap up -- ramp up, I don't know if you feel it, that's 100% where you need it to be. But if you were to come up short here in Q4, where would it likely be in your opinion?
然後正如大衛法倫所說的那樣執行,你實際上仍然必須提供指南。但是你能不能給我們更多的觀點,看看你手中有多少指南,而不是僅僅在積壓工作上執行,而不是關於供應可用性的真正問號,也許問號仍然是關於蒙特雷能夠完全結束——加速,我不知道你是否感覺到,那是你需要的 100%。但是,如果您要在第四季度在這裡做空,您認為它可能在哪裡?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes, Jeff, this is David. And there's still a ton of variables, and it's not only variables from a macro perspective, but within region. I think what we have said consistently over the last 2 or 3 quarters is that our issue is not a demand issue. The backlog is there. We have the orders. Probably the biggest risk is related to supply.
是的,傑夫,這是大衛。還有很多變數,不僅是宏觀的變數,還有地域內的變數。我認為我們在過去 2 或 3 個季度中一直在說的是,我們的問題不是需求問題。積壓在那裡。我們有訂單。最大的風險可能與供應有關。
And even though a lot of that supply has cleared up, notably with electronic components based on things we have done proactively, including qualifying new suppliers. And we talked a lot about the fan suppliers, but there still is a lot of volatility out there.
即使很多供應已經清理乾淨,特別是基於我們主動做的事情的電子元件,包括合格的新供應商。我們談了很多關於風扇供應商的問題,但仍然存在很大的波動性。
And for a lot of these components, it's day-to-day, week-to-week. So we have better visibility than we had 60, 90 days ago. But I would still say there's risk as it relates to production and shipment. It's not necessarily a demand issue, I think we talked about fairly consistently.
對於很多這些組件,它是每天、每週的。因此,我們比 60、90 天前的能見度更高。但我仍然會說存在風險,因為它與生產和運輸有關。這不一定是需求問題,我認為我們一直在討論。
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Correct. And your question specifically on Monterrey, we are happy about the way the plan is unfolding. We have a great team, and the team are delivering on our plan. But again, as Dave was saying, it's the challenges around components, just exactly as said by him.
正確的。你的問題特別針對蒙特雷,我們對計劃的展開方式感到高興。我們有一個很棒的團隊,這個團隊正在實現我們的計劃。但是,正如 Dave 所說,這是圍繞組件的挑戰,正如他所說的那樣。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.
今天的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
When you guys talk about adding new suppliers and like specking out new suppliers, it sounds inherently inflationary. I mean, you lose some scale, I suppose, with that supplier. How material is that when you think about your kind of bill of goods?
當你們談論增加新供應商並喜歡挑選新供應商時,這聽起來本質上是通貨膨脹。我的意思是,你失去了一些規模,我想,那個供應商。當您考慮您的貨物清單時,這有多重要?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
I would say that there is a counterargument to that. When you add supplier, you add bargaining power at the same time. So it is more than we see the 2 things that are pretty much offset.
我會說對此有反駁。當你增加供應商時,你同時增加了議價能力。所以這比我們看到的 2 件事要多得多。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Okay. That's surprising and good, positive. The follow-on question is just on the stickiness of price increases. Are there situations where if raw material costs go down, et cetera, you are mandated to give back some of that price when we get into '23?
好的。這是令人驚訝的,很好的,積極的。後續問題只是關於價格上漲的粘性。在某些情況下,如果原材料成本下降,等等,當我們進入 23 年時,您是否必須退還部分價格?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes, Scott, this is David. In some cases, yes. So we've included material cost escalation clauses in some of our master sales agreements. And -- but there are bands included in those. So it's not dollar for dollar, penny for penny, they have to expand either upwards or downwards outside of that band. And to some extent, there will be some pricing impact, but we don't consider that a significant risk heading into 2023.
是的,斯科特,這是大衛。在某些情況下,是的。因此,我們在一些主銷售協議中包含了材料成本上漲條款。並且 - 但其中包含樂隊。所以這不是一分錢一分貨,一分錢一分貨,它們必須向上或向下擴展到該範圍之外。在某種程度上,價格會受到一些影響,但我們認為這不會成為進入 2023 年的重大風險。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Amit Daryanani from Evercore.
今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
I have 2 as well. Maybe to start with on free cash flow. Is the way to think about how much excess working capital inventory you think you're carrying right now? And do you expect all of that to sort of convert into free cash flow in '23, or would be a much more elongated time frame for higher free cash flow and more working capital optimization? So let's just understand, how much extra inventory do you have? And how does that normalization looks like through '23?
我也有2個。也許從自由現金流開始。考慮您認為您現在持有多少超額營運資金庫存的方法是什麼?你是否希望所有這些都在 23 年轉化為自由現金流,或者是一個更長的時間框架以獲得更高的自由現金流和更多的營運資本優化?那麼讓我們了解一下,您有多少額外庫存?到 23 年為止,這種標準化情況如何?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. I'll start, Amit. So maybe I'd start with some facts. So our inventory level at the end of 2020 was about $450 million. We expect, at least on a GAAP basis, our inventory level at the end of this year will be around $765 million. So that's a $300 million increase in inventory, and that includes some foreign exchange benefit.
是的。我要開始了,阿米特。所以也許我會從一些事實開始。因此,我們在 2020 年底的庫存水平約為 4.5 億美元。我們預計,至少在 GAAP 基礎上,我們今年年底的庫存水平將約為 7.65 億美元。所以庫存增加了 3 億美元,其中包括一些外匯收益。
So very clearly, inventory has increased each of the past 2 years. And very clearly at a level that is, as you say, in excess of what we need to run the business, we believe, on a go-forward basis.
很明顯,庫存在過去兩年中每年都在增加。正如你所說,非常清楚地超出了我們經營業務所需的水平,我們相信,在前進的基礎上。
Now there are some contributory factors. Certainly, volume is significantly higher than it was when we exit 2020. And the supply chain has created many issues, not only for us, but many, many industrial companies out there.
現在有一些促成因素。當然,銷量明顯高於我們 2020 年結束時的水平。而且供應鏈帶來了很多問題,不僅對我們,而且對那裡的許多工業公司都是如此。
So it's hard at this point and probably premature to quantify what we think that benefit is, but it's something certainly we've been working on during the year. We could have probably taken that inventory level down a little bit lower at an exit point in 2022, but based on the significant volumes that we have to deliver this year and we anticipate heading into next year, we thought it prudent to not be overly aggressive.
因此,在這一點上很難量化我們認為的好處可能還為時過早,但這肯定是我們在這一年中一直在努力的事情。我們本可以在 2022 年的退出點將庫存水平降低一點,但基於我們今年必須交付的大量產品以及我們預計進入明年,我們認為謹慎的做法是不要過於激進.
But with that said, because of the SIOP improvements, because some of the things we're doing with supply chain, we do believe there would be an inventory reduction at some point in 2023.
但話雖如此,由於 SIOP 的改進,由於我們在供應鏈方面所做的一些事情,我們確實相信在 2023 年的某個時候會有庫存減少。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Got it. And then if I could just follow-up. If I look at the midpoint that you guided for December sort of the 2022 numbers, I think there's about $300 million of material and freight inflation that helped kind of a headwind, right? If you want to think about how much is material versus freight explicitly? And is it fair to assume that the freight cost has given what's happening in the world should start to trend lower and that at least would be nice tailwind in '23?
知道了。然後,如果我可以跟進。如果我看一下您為 2022 年 12 月份的數據制定的中點,我認為大約有 3 億美元的材料和運費通脹助長了逆風,對吧?如果您想明確考慮材料與運費的多少?並且假設運費已經給世界上正在發生的事情應該開始趨於下降並且至少在 23 年會是一個不錯的順風,這是否公平?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So I think for the full year, our material and freight inflation number's $305 million. I think that's what you're referring to. About 80% of that is material and 20% is freight. And we include both spot buys and the material inflation and premium freight in the freight number.
是的。所以我認為全年,我們的材料和運費通脹數字為 3.05 億美元。我認為這就是你所指的。其中大約 80% 是材料,20% 是運費。我們在運費中包括現貨購買和材料通脹和溢價運費。
And we, too, are seeing some of the favorable benefits of freight rates. I would say 90% of what we do is on contract as opposed to spot. So we won't see the benefit immediately, but we also have adjustment clauses in those contracts, which should favorably benefit us over time. And we would say certainly at the beginning of 2023.
我們也看到了運費帶來的一些好處。我會說我們所做的 90% 是合同而不是現貨。所以我們不會立即看到好處,但我們在這些合同中也有調整條款,隨著時間的推移應該會對我們有利。我們肯定會在 2023 年初說。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.
今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
I could just -- I'd like to just ask a modeling question, since you've been through a lot of the higher-level stuff. So I think it was -- Rob went through the -- sorry, I think it was Dave that went through the Americas margin outlook for 4Q.
我可以 - 我只想問一個建模問題,因為你已經經歷了很多更高層次的事情。所以我認為是 - Rob 經歷了 - 抱歉,我認為是 Dave 經歷了第四季度的美洲利潤率前景。
But -- what about Asia Pac and EMEA, like how much improvement are you guys expecting to see in the fourth quarter? And also any color on how organic growth stacks up by region, would be helpful as well.
但是 - 亞太地區和 EMEA 怎麼樣,你們希望在第四季度看到多少改善?還有任何關於有機增長如何按地區疊加的顏色,也會有所幫助。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So I think in the last presentation, we spelled out full year expectations by quarter for adjusted operating margin by region. We did not include that in this quarter, and we knew somebody would ask about it.
是的。因此,我認為在上次演示中,我們按季度闡明了按地區調整後的營業利潤率的全年預期。我們沒有將其包括在本季度中,我們知道有人會問這個問題。
So we have the numbers ready. Yes. So Americas, we're targeting about 20%. That's about 400 basis point lift from Q3. EMEA, and this is based on the expectation of being price cost positive in Q4, and also the benefit of volume leverage, we anticipate adjusted operating profit in EMEA to be in the mid-20s. So call it, 24%, 25%.
所以我們準備好了數字。是的。所以美洲,我們的目標是大約 20%。這比第三季度提高了約 400 個基點。歐洲、中東和非洲,這是基於對第四季度價格成本為正的預期,以及數量槓桿的好處,我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲調整後的營業利潤將在 20 年代中期。所以稱它為 24%、25%。
So down from what we had previously disclosed because of the additional inflation that we talked about, but still, a significant increase from what we saw in Q3 and a very significant increase from what we saw in Q4 of last year. And APAC, we would anticipate being relatively flat in Q4 versus Q3.
由於我們談到了額外的通貨膨脹,所以比我們之前披露的要低,但仍然比我們在第三季度看到的顯著增加,並且比我們在去年第四季度看到的增加非常顯著。而亞太地區,我們預計第四季度與第三季度相對持平。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Okay. And just anything on organic growth by the 3 regions as well, like, if there's a big divergence?
好的。還有關於這 3 個地區的有機增長的任何事情,比如,是否存在很大差異?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So I think organic growth for total Vertiv in Q4 would be 25%. And you got to take a step back and realize you're saying 25%. That's a big number. There is some divergence across the regions. I would say, certainly highest in the Americas, and that could be 30% to 40% increase driven by both volume and price. EMEA year-over-year is probably in the mid-20s. And I would say, APAC is probably up about 10%.
是的。所以我認為第四季度 Vertiv 的整體有機增長將達到 25%。你必須退後一步,意識到你說的是 25%。這是一個很大的數字。各地區之間存在一些差異。我想說,美洲肯定是最高的,而且在數量和價格的推動下可能會增長 30% 到 40%。 EMEA 同比可能在 20 多歲左右。我想說,亞太地區可能上漲了 10% 左右。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And just on the order backlog, how far out are you guys booking now? Are you like a long way into filling up 2023? Are you accepting orders for 2024? Just curious on lead times at this point.
好的。這很有幫助。就訂單積壓而言,你們現在預訂還有多長時間?你想填滿 2023 年還有很長的路要走嗎?你們接受 2024 年的訂單嗎?在這一點上只是對交貨時間感到好奇。
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Yes. Nicole, this is Gio. The majority of our orders now are 2023 and in particular, on the first -- on the first half of 2023. We have some second half 2023. And the -- beyond 2023 is just a minor -- it's just a minor part of our backlog today.
是的。妮可,這是 Gio。我們現在的大部分訂單是 2023 年的,特別是在 2023 年上半年。我們有一些 2023 年下半年的訂單。而且 - 2023 年以後只是一個小部分 - 這只是我們的一小部分今天積壓。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
今天的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Rob, I appreciate all your help. Best wishes and Gio, congrats on the new responsibilities.
羅伯,感謝你的幫助。最良好的祝愿和吉奧,祝賀新職責。
First question is on the 2023 outlook. If there is a mild to moderate recession in at least parts of the world, do you think that kind of EBIT level you're guiding for is achievable?
第一個問題是關於 2023 年的展望。如果世界上至少部分地區出現輕度至中度衰退,您認為您所指導的那種息稅前利潤水平是可以實現的嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Our goal would be to maintain profitability regardless of what happened to the top line. Our industry is certainly different than others. No one's recession-proof, but based on the size of our backlog heading into next year. And we certainly don't think the recession impact on use of data and building data centers is certainly going to be perfectly correlated for next year.
我們的目標是無論頂線發生什麼情況都保持盈利能力。我們的行業肯定不同於其他行業。沒有人能抵禦經濟衰退,但基於我們進入明年的積壓工作量。我們當然不認為經濟衰退對數據使用和建設數據中心的影響在明年肯定會完全相關。
So even in a recession, we feel pretty good about our top line. But if there are headwinds with the top line that roll through variable contribution margins, we'll take the necessary steps from a fixed cost basis to offset it. And our goal would be to maintain that $730 million to $750 million adjusted operating profit outlook regardless of any impact from the recession.
因此,即使在經濟衰退期間,我們對我們的收入也感覺很好。但是,如果通過可變貢獻利潤率滾動的頂線存在逆風,我們將從固定成本基礎上採取必要的步驟來抵消它。我們的目標是保持 7.3 億至 7.5 億美元的調整後營業利潤前景,無論經濟衰退有何影響。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
My follow-up question is on E&I. If memory serves me correctly, originally, that was tracking to something like $0.10 at the time of acquisition. I believe the slides, it ended up as a $0.02 contributor to EPS for this year. That's the latest assumption for full year EPS contribution from E&I.
我的後續問題是關於 E&I。如果我沒記錯的話,最初,收購時的價格是 0.10 美元。我相信幻燈片,它最終為今年的 EPS 貢獻了 0.02 美元。這是 E&I 對全年 EPS 貢獻的最新假設。
The question has something fundamentally changed around E&I compared to when you did the transaction? Or is this the same type of supply chain and some of these price cost issues that broader Vertiv investment you are dealing with, and over time, we should still be thinking of the same sort of longer-term benefits from the E&I acquisition?
與您進行交易時相比,E&I 的問題發生了根本性的變化?或者這是您正在處理的更廣泛的 Vertiv 投資的同一類型的供應鍊和其中一些價格成本問題,並且隨著時間的推移,我們仍然應該考慮從 E&I 收購中獲得的相同類型的長期利益?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Mark. I would say from a strategic perspective, we're more excited about E&I and the positive contributions to Vertiv today than we were at the time of the acquisition. And part of the value equation there was based on revenue synergies. And I would say, our expectation for revenue synergies are probably 3x, if not more, what we had initially anticipated.
是的。謝謝,馬克。我想說,從戰略角度來看,與收購時相比,我們對 E&I 以及今天對 Vertiv 的積極貢獻感到更加興奮。價值方程式的一部分基於收入協同效應。我會說,我們對收入協同效應的預期可能是我們最初預期的 3 倍,甚至更多。
Now unfortunately, that's not showing up in the numbers this year. So my depiction of E&I, probably rather crudely is a bad year, great acquisition. A lot of the issues that E&I is seeing from a profitability perspective this year are identical with what we have seen with Vertiv.
不幸的是,今年的數字並未體現這一點。所以我對 E&I 的描述,可能相當粗略地是糟糕的一年,偉大的收購。 E&I 今年從盈利能力角度看到的許多問題與我們在 Vertiv 看到的問題相同。
So if you look at the operating profit margin profile quarter-over-quarter this year, I think it started at low teens in Q1, maybe 14%, and it should exit the year closer to 20%. And the story is similar. Inflation hit with a pretty good-sized backlog at the end of last year, and we were just a little bit slow in getting price. And if you look at the price we get in the fourth quarter, that's what really increases the margin from that low teens to 20%.
因此,如果您查看今年季度環比的營業利潤率概況,我認為它在第一季度開始時處於較低的十幾歲,可能是 14%,到今年應該接近 20%。故事很相似。去年年底,通貨膨脹帶來了相當大的積壓,我們在獲得價格方面有點慢。如果你看看我們在第四季度獲得的價格,這才是真正將利潤率從低十幾%提高到 20% 的原因。
So I would say, we are more excited today than we were at the time of the acquisition, and sometimes we get asked with if you had to do it all over again, would you still do the deal. And the answer is a very profound robust, absolutely.
所以我想說,我們今天比收購時更興奮,有時我們會被問到如果你必須重新做一遍,你還會做這筆交易嗎?答案絕對是非常深刻的強大。
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Yes, 100% for this deal, 100%. I think it's strategically made sense and all the more reasons it makes a ton of sense, ton of sense now. So we're very, very happy about the decision made back then.
是的,這筆交易 100%,100%。我認為這在戰略上是有道理的,而且還有更多的理由,它現在很有意義。所以我們對當時做出的決定感到非常非常高興。
Operator
Operator
The next question today comes from the line of Lance Vitanza from Cowen.
今天的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Lance Vitanza。
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
The first is just to confirm regarding the new fan supplier, it sounds like that's really no longer perspective. You are receiving fans in volume; you're assembling them into products. Is that right? And have you shipped product with the new fans inside yet? Or does that begin later in the quarter or perhaps early in 2023?
第一個只是確認新的風扇供應商,這聽起來真的不再是透視。您收到了大量的粉絲;您正在將它們組裝成產品。那正確嗎?您是否已將裝有新風扇的產品發貨了?還是會在本季度晚些時候或 2023 年初開始?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
We have -- Vitanza, this is Gio. We have absolutely started -- and that and other actions we've taken on the fan supply side of the equation are greatly improving our ability to deliver on the numbers. But the answer is yes, it has happened. Not only it is happening. It has happened.
我們有-- Vitanza,這是Gio。我們已經完全開始了——我們在等式的風扇供應方面採取的這一行動和其他行動正在極大地提高我們交付數字的能力。但答案是肯定的,它已經發生了。不僅如此。它已經發生了。
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Okay. And then definitely, you called out that some supply chain easing, which is, of course, good news. On the other hand, the semiconductors still remain tight through the first half of 2023. So my question is, do you see that tightness in semiconductors? Do you see that putting pressure on 2023 revenue? Or is that just putting pressure on the margins in AOP and so forth?
好的。然後可以肯定的是,你提出了一些供應鏈寬鬆政策,這當然是個好消息。另一方面,到 2023 年上半年,半導體仍然吃緊。所以我的問題是,你看到半導體的緊縮了嗎?你認為這會給 2023 年的收入帶來壓力嗎?或者這只是對 AOP 等的利潤率施加壓力?
And then if there's any sort of sense for what you think that AOP number could have been if it weren't for the tightness in the semiconductors? I would appreciate hearing your thoughts there, too.
然後,如果不是因為半導體的密封性,您認為 AOP 數字可能有什麼意義?我也很樂意在那裡聽到你的想法。
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Well, let me answer operationally here. So we have been dealing with a tight supply market when it comes to everything, IGBT, that type of semiconductor. And as I've said, we expect that to continue. So we will -- and we have been taking precautionary measures as well in terms of qualifying new suppliers. So we factor the challenges in our plans. And I don't know, David, if you want to add anything.
好吧,讓我在這裡進行操作性回答。所以我們一直在處理供應緊張的市場,涉及到所有東西,IGBT,那種類型的半導體。正如我所說,我們希望這種情況繼續下去。所以我們會 - 我們一直在採取預防措施以及合格的新供應商。因此,我們在計劃中考慮了挑戰。大衛,我不知道你是否想添加任何內容。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
No. It would be really tough to quantify what the impact is. I mean, certainly greater than 0. And we're not talking tens of millions, right? So you see the size of our backlog, it continues to grow. And we think, we see the benefit of some of the very proactive actions we've taken during the year to address the issue. We see that in the fourth quarter. But you can't go back in time and fix the situation in Q2 and Q3.
不,要量化影響是非常困難的。我的意思是,肯定大於 0。而且我們不是在談論數千萬,對吧?所以你看到我們積壓的規模,它繼續增長。我們認為,我們看到了我們在這一年中為解決該問題而採取的一些非常積極主動的行動的好處。我們在第四季度看到了這一點。但是你不能回到過去並修復 Q2 和 Q3 的情況。
So it's in the hundreds of millions, if you look at lost revenue earlier in the year. That's kind of a ballpark. There's a lot of -- that's a multivariable equation, but suffice it to say, it has been very significant.
因此,如果您查看今年早些時候的收入損失,它會達到數億美元。那是一個球場。有很多 - 這是一個多變量方程,但足以說明,它非常重要。
Operator
Operator
Our final question today comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
我們今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Congratulations and Gio, great meeting you. Just a question, there were headlines about an activist. If you could just sort of talk to us about what kind of conversations you've had with the activist? Any update or color you can provide to us?
恭喜你,Gio,很高興見到你。只是一個問題,有關於活動家的頭條新聞。如果你能和我們談談你與活動家進行過什麼樣的對話?您可以向我們提供任何更新或顏色嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. It took the last question, Andrew. So good question. And we don't want to necessarily elaborate too much. The folks at this call, certainly on third quarter earnings. But I would say, we're actually very excited to welcome a new shareholder, a very large shareholder.
是的。最後一個問題,安德魯。好問題。我們不想詳細說明太多。參加這次電話會議的人肯定是關於第三季度的收益。但我要說的是,我們實際上非常高興歡迎一位新股東,一位非常大的股東。
A shareholder, who certainly, as they communicated their investment thesis, very consistent with our management thesis. And that is as a company operating in a great industry like we do, with the continued operational improvements and some of the things that Gio mentioned with a focus on developing a high-performance culture.
一位股東,在傳達他們的投資論點時,當然與我們的管理論點非常一致。這就是像我們一樣在一個偉大的行業中運營的公司,不斷改進運營以及 Gio 提到的一些重點是發展高性能文化。
There's considerable, considerable value here to unlock and it's all the things we've been saying over the last year or so. Their investment doesn't change our strategy or our priorities. Our interests are aligned, just like with any other shareholder. And as we execute and perform going forward, our interests certainly will continue to be aligned.
這裡有相當大的價值可以解鎖,這就是我們在過去一年左右一直在說的所有事情。他們的投資不會改變我們的戰略或我們的優先事項。我們的利益是一致的,就像與任何其他股東一樣。隨著我們的執行和執行向前推進,我們的利益肯定會繼續保持一致。
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Andrew Burris Obin - MD
Terrific answer. And just a follow-up question. Just going forward, how do you think about the trade-off between increasing R&D investment and keeping your commitment to keeping fixed cost constant?
很棒的答案。只是一個後續問題。展望未來,您如何看待增加研發投資與保持固定成本不變的承諾之間的權衡?
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Giordano Albertazzi - COO & President of Americas
Well, that's clearly a constant trade-off that we are addressing day in, day out. And running every business is an exercise of allocation of scarce resource. And we are no exception. And we see a lot of value and innovation as we've been kept saying during the course of at least the last 2 years.
好吧,這顯然是我們日復一日要解決的一個持續的權衡。經營每一項業務都是對稀缺資源的配置。我們也不例外。正如我們至少在過去兩年中一直在說的那樣,我們看到了很多價值和創新。
So it is really a matter of allocation of priorities towards innovation. But also go back to what I was saying at the beginning around operational execution, operational execution for us means a lot of opportunity for efficiency. And the efficiency is assured, you can look at our efficiency as a source of funding for innovation, loosely.
因此,這實際上是分配創新優先級的問題。但也回到我一開始所說的關於運營執行的內容,運營執行對我們來說意味著很多提高效率的機會。而且效率是有保證的,你可以把我們的效率看作是創新資金的來源,鬆散地。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rob Johnson for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Rob Johnson 作任何閉幕詞。
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Robert J. Johnson - CEO & Director
Thank you very much, and thank you, everyone, for your time today. As this is my last earnings call, as CEO of Vertiv, I want to take the opportunity to acknowledge and thank a few people.
非常感謝,也感謝大家今天的時間。由於這是我作為 Vertiv 首席執行官的最後一次財報電話會議,我想藉此機會感謝一些人。
And I'd like to start with Platinum Equity for creating this opportunity and believing in me and supporting us through the turnaround of this great company. I certainly want to thank our customers. I know we've cost pain over the last year, but we're working through that and thank you for sticking with us and sticking loyal to our brand.
我想從 Platinum Equity 開始,因為它創造了這個機會並相信我並支持我們度過這家偉大公司的轉機。我當然要感謝我們的客戶。我知道我們在過去的一年裡付出了痛苦,但我們正在努力解決這個問題,感謝您堅持我們並忠於我們的品牌。
The employees for all the work you've done and all the work you're going to have to do going forward. We've got a great '23 to look forward to. So I want to thank the employees, the Board of Directors with a special thanks to Dave Cote for the support and the mentoring and coaching. And of course, I want to thank all the shareowners for their support in Vertiv now and going forward.
員工為您所做的所有工作以及您今後將要做的所有工作。我們有一個很棒的 23 年值得期待。因此,我要感謝員工、董事會,特別感謝戴夫·科特 (Dave Cote) 的支持、指導和指導。當然,我要感謝所有股東現在和未來對 Vertiv 的支持。
It's been an honor serving as CEO, and I'm more confident now than ever. The future of Vertiv and its ability to create long-term value for the stakeholders is the brightest days are ahead, and you're in great hands with Giordano as we go forward.
擔任首席執行官是我的榮幸,我現在比以往任何時候都更有信心。 Vertiv 的未來及其為利益相關者創造長期價值的能力是未來最光明的日子,在我們前進的過程中,您將與佐丹奴攜手共進。
So again, thank you for the opportunity to serve you.
再次感謝您有機會為您服務。
Operator
Operator
The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。