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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Daisy, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Vertiv's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded.
早上好。我叫 Daisy,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候,歡迎大家參加 Vertiv 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,此通話正在錄音中。
I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. So Lynne, please go ahead.
我現在想把今天的電話會議的程序交給你的主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Lynne Maxeiner 開始。 Lynne,請繼續。
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR
Great. Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Giordano Albertazzi; and Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon.
偉大的。謝謝,早上好,歡迎來到 Vertiv 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天加入我的是 Vertiv 的執行主席 Dave Cote;首席執行官 Giordano Albertazzi;和首席財務官 David Fallon。
Before we begin, I'd like to point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual and quarterly reports and other filings made with the SEC.
在我們開始之前,我想指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 的未來財務和運營業績。這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定因素的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異。我們建議您參考今天的收益發布中包含的警示性語言,您可以在我們的年度和季度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中了解有關這些風險的更多信息。
Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們認為截至該日期合理的假設。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。
During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com.
在本次電話會議中,我們還將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的 GAAP 結果和 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節表可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們網站 investors.vertiv.com 上的投資者幻燈片中找到。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.
有了這個,我會把電話轉給執行主席戴夫科特。
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
David M. Cote - Executive Chairman
Well, it's one hell of a debut for our new CEO's first quarter isn't it? I am very pleased with the results we delivered in the first quarter and our ongoing progress. Gio's first quarter as CEO is under his belt, and his operational focus on delivering results and creating a high-performance culture is particularly noticeable, especially in the Americas.
嗯,這是我們新任首席執行官第一季度的首次亮相,不是嗎?我對我們在第一季度取得的成果以及我們正在取得的進展感到非常滿意。 Gio 作為首席執行官的第一個季度就在他的領導下,他對交付成果和創造高績效文化的運營重點特別引人注目,尤其是在美洲。
We over-delivered in the first quarter compared to guidance and we increased the midpoint of our AOP guidance by $25 million, and cash flow was terrific. We entered the year with a very strong backlog. We were able to secure needed parts and we had capacity in place to deliver a high Q1 sales level.
與指導相比,我們在第一季度超額交付,我們將 AOP 指導的中點提高了 2500 萬美元,現金流非常好。我們帶著非常強大的積壓進入了這一年。我們能夠獲得所需的零件,並且我們有能力提供高的第一季度銷售水平。
Order rates will be another metric that looks different this year. Gio has some detail in his prepared remarks to explain that. We are constantly focused on the orders rate, and we are encouraged both by the pipeline activity and the pace of investment in our end markets. I've said this for a number of years. There is a true secular growth story at Vertiv and the work we have done in positioning the company for growth and being able to leverage that growth in a meaningful way by getting after margin opportunities while still protecting growth investment makes Vertiv uniquely positioned to create substantial value in the years ahead. It is what attracted me to this assets 4 years ago, and I'm even more excited today with the runway ahead.
訂單率將是今年看起來有所不同的另一個指標。 Gio 在他準備好的發言中有一些細節來解釋這一點。我們一直關注訂單率,我們對管道活動和終端市場投資步伐感到鼓舞。我已經說了很多年了。 Vertiv 有一個真實的長期增長故事,我們在定位公司增長方面所做的工作,以及能夠通過獲得利潤機會以有意義的方式利用這種增長,同時仍然保護增長投資,使 Vertiv 具有獨特的優勢,可以創造可觀的價值在未來的歲月裡。這就是 4 年前吸引我到這個資產的原因,今天我對前方的跑道更加興奮。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Gio.
因此,我將把電話轉給 Gio。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Thank you, Dave. Thank you very much, and good day, everyone. So we delivered a very strong first quarter sales, up 35% organically, led by Americas, up over 60% and EMEA, up 25%. We were able to ship more in Q1 than a typical first quarter as we strengthened our supply chain and increase capacity across the world, in particular, in our Monterrey thermal management facility.
謝謝你,戴夫。非常感謝大家,祝大家有美好的一天。因此,我們第一季度的銷售額非常強勁,有機增長 35%,其中美洲增長超過 60%,歐洲、中東和非洲增長 25%。由於我們加強了供應鏈並提高了全球產能,特別是在我們的蒙特雷熱管理設施中,我們在第一季度的出貨量超過了通常的第一季度。
We had very high backlog starting the year, and we have the capacity to serve the growing demand of the industry. Orders excluding FX, were down 23% from last year's first quarter. This was in line with our expectations, driven by the comparison with an exceptionally high Q1 '22 and consistent with the orders normalization trend we referred to in February. Book-to-bill ratio was 1x and backlog remained flat versus year-end '22, our historical peak. I will further elaborate on this when we review Slide 6.
從年初開始,我們的訂單積壓非常高,但我們有能力滿足行業不斷增長的需求。不包括外彙在內的訂單比去年第一季度下降了 23%。這符合我們的預期,受到與 22 年第一季度異常高的比較的推動,並且與我們在 2 月份提到的訂單正常化趨勢一致。訂單出貨比為 1 倍,積壓訂單與我們的歷史峰值 '22 年底持平。當我們回顧幻燈片 6 時,我將進一步闡述這一點。
Our adjusted operating profit was $176 million, which was $41 million higher than the top end of our guidance. The beat was largely driven by additional volume and higher-than-expected variable contribution margin coming from a combination of manufacturing efficiency and supply chain efficiency. We are raising our full year adjusted operating profit guidance by $25 million at the midpoint, given the strong first quarter results.
我們調整後的營業利潤為 1.76 億美元,比我們指導的上限高出 4100 萬美元。這一節拍主要是由額外的銷量和高於預期的可變邊際貢獻所推動的,這些貢獻來自製造效率和供應鏈效率的結合。鑑於第一季度的強勁業績,我們將全年調整後的營業利潤預期中值提高了 2500 萬美元。
Adjusted free cash flow was another good story with $25 million cash generation in the quarter, $100 million higher than our guidance. Although we're pleased with our first quarter performance, we know very well there is still work to do. We are holding the adjusted free cash flow guidance for the year at $350 million, i.e., the previous midpoint, but we understand there is ample opportunity for improvement and certainly in inventory.
調整後的自由現金流是另一個好故事,本季度產生了 2500 萬美元的現金,比我們的指導高出 1 億美元。儘管我們對第一季度的表現感到滿意,但我們非常清楚仍有工作要做。我們將今年調整後的自由現金流量指引維持在 3.5 億美元,即之前的中點,但我們知道有很多改進的機會,當然還有庫存。
We are continuing to strengthen our processes and operational rigor around trade working capital execution. So overall, a good start, and we are squarely focused on delivering the full year, and that is one quarter at a time.
我們將繼續加強圍繞貿易營運資金執行的流程和運營嚴謹性。總的來說,這是一個良好的開端,我們正專注於交付全年,一次是一個季度。
And let us turn to Slide 4. We have no changes to the view on the market from 2 months ago at the end of February. We are cognizant of the headlines around tech and the general uncertainty around macro environment, we continue to see encouraging pipeline activity. Some cloud hyperscale customers are digesting capacity. Others are using this as an opportunity to accelerate their build-outs. Some hyperscalers are moderating CapEx growth, that this moderate growth is still healthy growth. And we see investment continuing.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。與 2 個月前的 2 月底相比,我們對市場的看法沒有變化。我們意識到圍繞科技的頭條新聞和宏觀環境的普遍不確定性,我們繼續看到令人鼓舞的管道活動。一些雲超大規模客戶正在消化容量。其他人則以此為契機加速擴建。一些超大規模企業正在緩和資本支出的增長,這種溫和的增長仍然是健康的增長。我們看到投資仍在繼續。
Additionally, we see some market reacceleration in the second half of the year, especially in China, which has been softer over the last several quarters. As Dave mentioned, there is significant secular growth story in our industry. This is further demonstrated by the acceleration of everything artificial intelligence in the tech space. We are distinctly seeing the first signs of the AI investment cycle in our pipelines and orders. Vertiv is uniquely positioned to win here given our market leadership and deep domain expertise in areas like thermal management and controls, which are vital to support the complexity of future AI infrastructures.
此外,我們看到今年下半年一些市場重新加速,尤其是在過去幾個季度表現疲軟的中國。正如 Dave 所提到的,我們行業有著重要的長期增長故事。科技領域人工智能的加速發展進一步證明了這一點。我們在我們的管道和訂單中清楚地看到了人工智能投資週期的最初跡象。鑑於我們在熱管理和控制等領域的市場領導地位和深厚的領域專業知識,Vertiv 在這方面具有獨特的優勢,這對於支持未來 AI 基礎設施的複雜性至關重要。
Let's move to Slide 5. First and most importantly, markets are, in general, healthy. Investment continues across markets, hyperscale, colos, enterprise. Our project pipeline remains strong. We review pipeline activity regularly and diligently, and pipeline activity remains encouraging. First quarter orders, including the impact of foreign exchange, declined 23%. There are order dynamics that are important to unfold. So we have provided additional details in the next slide. More comments then.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 5。首先,也是最重要的是,市場總體上是健康的。投資繼續跨市場、超大規模、託管、企業。我們的項目管道仍然很強大。我們定期認真審查管道活動,管道活動仍然令人鼓舞。第一季度訂單,包括外彙的影響,下降了 23%。有一些重要的秩序動態需要展開。因此,我們在下一張幻燈片中提供了更多詳細信息。那就多評論吧。
Let me go back to the investments in AI. You may have heard it as generally characterized as the next infrastructure arms race, Vertiv benefits from this race and is an agnostic partner of choice to the risk participants. The acceleration in investment in AI will turn into a net infrastructure capacity demand acceleration, and this starts to be visible in our pipelines. AI applications demand a net capacity increase in the industry, higher power density, a gradual migration to an air and liquid hybrid cooling environment and a transition to liquid-ready facility designed.
讓我回到對人工智能的投資。您可能聽說過它通常被描述為下一場基礎設施軍備競賽,Vertiv 從這場競賽中受益,並且是風險參與者的首選合作夥伴。人工智能投資的加速將轉化為基礎設施淨容量需求的加速,這在我們的管道中開始顯現。 AI 應用要求行業淨容量增加、功率密度更高、逐漸遷移到空氣和液體混合冷卻環境以及過渡到液體就緒設施設計。
I do not believe there is anyone else in the data center infrastructure space as well positioned as Vertiv even our expertise broaden technology portfolio, infrastructure system view and advanced control systems.
我不相信在數據中心基礎設施領域還有其他任何人像 Vertiv 一樣定位,即使我們的專業知識擴大了技術組合、基礎設施系統視圖和先進的控制系統。
Already today, some AI infrastructure orders are in our backlog, and we are encouraged by the potential that AI represents for Vertiv. So supply chain, it is incrementally better. There are still pockets of tightness in electronics, but the relentless qualification of additional suppliers we have driven in the last 12 months is helping us a lot.
今天,我們已經積壓了一些 AI 基礎設施訂單,我們對 AI 為 Vertiv 帶來的潛力感到鼓舞。因此,供應鏈逐漸變得更好。電子產品領域仍然存在緊張局面,但我們在過去 12 個月中推動的更多供應商的不懈努力對我們有很大幫助。
Inflation. We anticipate metal cost at lower levels in '23 versus '22, although they are starting to trend upwards, a more favorable environment on freight, reduced spot buy activity that both trending back to historic levels and that are good offset. I also like to remind that we have built up a robust pricing process that helps us in case of enduring inflation. Any overall price cost is developing according to plan and consistent with expectations.
通貨膨脹。我們預計 23 年的金屬成本將低於 22 年的水平,儘管它們開始呈上升趨勢,運費環境更加有利,現貨購買活動減少,兩者都趨於回到歷史水平,並且得到了很好的抵消。我還想提醒一下,我們已經建立了一個穩健的定價流程,可以幫助我們應對持續的通貨膨脹。任何總體價格成本都在按計劃發展並符合預期。
Let's now move to Slide 6. Let me here elaborate on future Q1 orders, order normalization and lead times. Indeed, last year's Q1 poses an exceptionally challenging comparison with orders up 34% from the first quarter of 2021. We will see some quarter-to-quarter variation due to timing of large projects, but last year's first quarter was exceptionally in that sense. We believe order normalization is very real. We talked about this in February 2022.
現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 6。讓我在這裡詳細說明未來第一季度的訂單、訂單標準化和交貨時間。事實上,與去年第一季度相比,訂單比 2021 年第一季度增長了 34%,這是一個極具挑戰性的對比。由於大型項目的時間安排,我們將看到一些季度與季度之間的差異,但去年第一季度在這個意義上是異常的。我們相信訂單正常化是非常真實的。我們在 2022 年 2 月討論過這個問題。
In February. In 2022, the large hyperscale and colocation customers were giving us orders that covered their requirements for extended period. As I mentioned, some going out 18-plus months due to the challenging supply chain and lead time situation in the industry. They wanted to secure the capacity they needed long term. That behavior was particularly pronounced in our thermal line of business.
二月裡。 2022 年,大型超大規模和主機託管客戶向我們提供了滿足他們長期需求的訂單。正如我所提到的,由於行業中供應鍊和交貨時間的挑戰,一些人會離開 18 個月以上。他們希望獲得長期所需的容量。這種行為在我們的熱能業務線中尤為明顯。
Now that our lead times are improving, not yet where we want them to be, but much better than last year. We anticipate they will continue to improve going forward.
現在我們的交貨時間正在改善,雖然還沒有達到我們想要的水平,但比去年好得多。我們預計他們將繼續改進。
Now that our lead times are improving, I would say, customers are more comfortable releasing orders at a much more normal cadence. This creates short-term air pocket but does not impact the volume or timing of what we will ultimately ship to customers. Order patterns are just normalizing. This is healthy for our business and the industry. So what does that leave us? We are encouraged that our book-to-bill ratio is 1x. And our backlog remains at the same level we had at the end of 2022, even with an extremely strong shipment quarter in Q1 where organic sales were increased 35%. Worth signaling an approximately 12% 3-year order CAGR that reflects good end market demand.
現在我們的交貨時間正在改善,我想說,客戶更願意以更正常的節奏發布訂單。這會產生短期氣穴,但不會影響我們最終向客戶發貨的數量或時間。訂單模式正在正常化。這對我們的業務和行業都是健康的。那麼這給我們留下了什麼?我們感到鼓舞的是,我們的訂單出貨比是 1 倍。我們的積壓訂單仍保持在 2022 年底的相同水平,即使第一季度的出貨量非常強勁,有機銷售額增長了 35%。值得發出約 12% 的 3 年訂單複合年增長率,這反映了良好的終端市場需求。
We believe that Q1 2023 will remain the most unfavorable year-over-year quarterly comparison in 2023, we believe it improves from here. We still anticipate a reduction in Q2 23 orders versus prior year, but improving relative to Q1. It is hard to have a crystal ball into second half of 2023. But with what I hear from customers, including what seems to be forming into a substantial investment cycle for AI. I remain optimistic that year-over-year orders will turn positive when we get to later quarters.
我們認為 2023 年第一季度仍將是 2023 年最不利的同比季度比較,我們相信它會從這裡有所改善。我們仍然預計第二季度 23 訂單與去年同期相比有所減少,但相對於第一季度有所改善。很難預測 2023 年下半年的水晶球。但根據我從客戶那裡聽到的消息,包括似乎正在形成 AI 的實質性投資週期。我仍然樂觀地認為,當我們進入後幾個季度時,同比訂單將轉正。
Having said that, I'll pass it over to David, who will walk us through the financials. Over to you, David.
話雖如此,我會將其傳遞給大衛,他將向我們介紹財務狀況。交給你了,大衛。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Perfect. Thanks, Gio. Turning to Page 7. This slide summarizes our first quarter financial results. As you can see, we exceeded the high end of guidance for all metrics on this slide, starting with sales, which were up organically $405 million or 35% from last year's first quarter. $105 million of this increase was from pricing and $300 million from volume, which was up approximately $100 million versus what we assumed in guidance.
完美的。謝謝,吉奧。翻到第 7 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們第一季度的財務業績。正如您所看到的,我們超出了這張幻燈片上所有指標的指導上限,從銷售額開始,與去年第一季度相比有機增長了 4.05 億美元或 35%。其中 1.05 億美元來自定價,3 億美元來自銷量,這比我們在指導中假設的增加了約 1 億美元。
A vast majority of this volume increase was based in the Americas as we continue to see significant improvements in supply chain and manufacturing efficiency and the 2 are related in that region. And it all starts with, and it's supported by a sound SIOP process.
這一數量增長的絕大部分來自美洲,因為我們繼續看到供應鍊和製造效率的顯著改善,而這兩者與該地區相關。這一切都始於一個健全的 SIOP 流程,並得到它的支持。
Adjusted operating profit of $176 million was $163 million higher than last year's first quarter. and $41 million higher than the top end of guidance, and this was primarily due to volume leverage and a higher contribution margin percentage driven by the improved manufacturing efficiency in our North American plants as once again, supply chain issues continue to be addressed and process improvements take hold.
調整後營業利潤為 1.76 億美元,比去年第一季度高出 1.63 億美元。和高於指導上限 4100 萬美元,這主要是由於產量槓桿和更高的邊際貢獻百分比,這是由於我們北美工廠製造效率的提高再次推動了供應鏈問題的繼續解決和流程改進搦。
Of note at the very bottom of the second gray box at the bottom of this page, we recognized a $13 million charge for restructuring in the quarter, and you can see that on the face of our income statement.
值得注意的是,在本頁底部第二個灰色框的最底部,我們確認了本季度 1300 萬美元的重組費用,您可以在我們的損益表上看到這一點。
In the spirit of winning now and winning later, while we continuously invest in productivity and efficiency projects, we will overdrive these investments when opportunities present themselves. -- well, in the first quarter, an $8 million onetime gain related to the reversal of an indemnification claim pursuant to the Emerson carve-out provided that opportunity. Instead of dropping this gain to the bottom line, we accelerated restructuring projects costing $13 million, which should drive $20 million of annualized savings, some of which should benefit the later part of 2023. Once again, winning now and winning later.
本著先贏後贏的精神,在我們不斷投資於生產力和效率項目的同時,我們將在機會出現時超額投資。 - 好吧,在第一季度,與根據艾默生分拆的賠償要求撤銷相關的 800 萬美元一次性收益提供了這個機會。我們沒有放棄這一收益,而是加快了耗資 1300 萬美元的重組項目,這應該會帶來 2000 萬美元的年化節省,其中一些應該會在 2023 年下半年受益。再一次,現在贏,以後贏。
Moving to the right on this slide, adjusted free cash flow of $25 million was $175 million higher than last year and $100 million better than the midpoint of guidance. Improvement versus both last year and guidance was driven by higher adjusted operating profit, and significant progress in driving advanced payments from customers. As Gio mentioned, while there is still work to do across all trade working capital categories, we are pleased with the results for the first quarter, and we anticipate continued improvement going forward.
在這張幻燈片的右邊,調整後的自由現金流為 2500 萬美元,比去年高出 1.75 億美元,比指導的中點高出 1 億美元。與去年和指導相比的改善是由更高的調整後營業利潤以及在推動客戶預付款方面取得的重大進展推動的。正如 Gio 所提到的,雖然所有貿易營運資金類別仍有工作要做,但我們對第一季度的結果感到滿意,我們預計未來會繼續改善。
Finally, on this slide, if you look at the bottom right-hand corner of that last box, we exited the first quarter with a net debt leverage ratio of approximately 4.3x and that was down from 5.5x at year-end. While net debt did not significantly change our trailing 12-month adjusted operating profit increased approximately $163 million from year-end as the $13 million from the first quarter of last year was replaced by the $176 million this year.
最後,在這張幻燈片上,如果您查看最後一個方框的右下角,我們在第一季度結束時的淨債務槓桿率約為 4.3 倍,低於年底的 5.5 倍。雖然淨債務沒有顯著變化,但我們過去 12 個月的調整後營業利潤比年底增加了約 1.63 億美元,因為去年第一季度的 1300 萬美元被今年的 1.76 億美元所取代。
As we reminded folks in February, although mechanical leverage calculations might have wrote and one could say maybe even lazily classified us as higher leverage. We do not believe that was consistent with the underlying reality but more a product of timing in our challenged first half of 2022. Based upon our updated guidance, we expect to be between 3.5 and 4x after the second quarter and approximately 3x at year-end, which is at the top end of our 2 to 3x long-term target range.
正如我們在 2 月份提醒人們的那樣,儘管機械槓桿計算可能已經寫明,甚至可以說甚至懶惰地將我們歸類為更高槓桿。我們認為這與基本現實不一致,而更多地是我們充滿挑戰的 2022 年上半年的時間安排的產物。根據我們更新後的指引,我們預計第二季度後將增長 3.5 至 4 倍,年底時約為 3 倍,這是我們 2 到 3 倍長期目標範圍的頂端。
Next, turning to Page 8. This slide summarizes our first quarter segment results. The Americas region had year-over-year organic sales growth of 61%, and that's not a typo. -- including volume of 48% and pricing of 13%. Americas entered the year with a very strong backlog and with improvements in the SIOP process and the supply chain, coupled with the continued capacity ramp-up in our new thermal facility in Monterrey, we were able to drive significant top line volume growth.
接下來,轉到第 8 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們第一季度的業績。美洲地區有機銷售額同比增長 61%,這不是錯別字。 -- 包括 48% 的數量和 13% 的定價。美洲進入這一年時積壓了大量訂單,隨著 SIOP 流程和供應鏈的改進,再加上我們位於蒙特雷的新熱電廠的產能持續增加,我們能夠推動收入的顯著增長。
EMEA also benefiting from a strong backlog, posted organic growth of 26%, including 17% from volume and 9% from pricing. APAC is somewhat an outlier compared to the other 2 regions for the first quarter. While we had good growth in India and Southeast Asia, China continued to be impacted by the effects of the post-COVID recovery and related project pushouts to the second quarter and back half of the year.
歐洲、中東和非洲地區也受益於強勁的訂單積壓,實現了 26% 的有機增長,其中 17% 來自銷量,9% 來自定價。與第一季度的其他兩個地區相比,亞太地區有些異常。雖然我們在印度和東南亞取得了良好的增長,但中國在第二季度和今年下半年繼續受到 COVID 後復蘇和相關項目推進的影響。
Based upon our visibility to an improving pipeline driven by the anticipated macroeconomic recovery and government-sponsored actions that should benefit data centers, we remain optimistic, anticipating mid- to upper single-digit organic growth in APAC for 2023 and good momentum heading into 2024.
基於我們對預期的宏觀經濟復甦和政府支持的應該有利於數據中心的行動所推動的管道改善的可見性,我們仍然樂觀,預計 2023 年亞太地區將實現中上個位數的有機增長,並在進入 2024 年時保持良好勢頭。
At the bottom of the slide, Americas continued its momentum from the second half of 2022 with adjusted operating margin of 22.1%, 11.3 percentage points higher than last year's first quarter and 160 basis points better than the fourth quarter. About half of the improvement was driven by higher variable contribution margin, including a significant price cost benefit with the other half from fixed cost leverage as we continue to drive our fixed cost constant philosophy while investing in capacity and technology.
在幻燈片的底部,美洲延續了 2022 年下半年的勢頭,調整後的營業利潤率為 22.1%,比去年第一季度高 11.3 個百分點,比第四季度高 160 個基點。大約一半的改進是由更高的可變邊際收益推動的,包括顯著的價格成本收益,另一半來自固定成本槓桿,因為我們在投資產能和技術的同時繼續推動我們的固定成本不變理念。
EMEA adjusted operating margin also improved nicely from last year's first quarter by over 700 basis points with about half of that improvement from fixed cost leverage. Finally, APAC, their adjusted operating margin, like its top line remained relatively flat from last year.
EMEA 調整後的營業利潤率也比去年第一季度好轉 700 多個基點,其中約一半來自固定成本槓桿。最後,在亞太地區,他們調整後的營業利潤率與其收入一樣,與去年相比保持相對平穩。
Turning to Page 9. This slide summarizes our second quarter guidance. As we mentioned in our press release, due to our strong beginning of the year backlog and an improved supply chain, we anticipate quarterly seasonality to look a bit different in 2023 compared with historic patterns. As a result, we are not projecting as a significant incremental jump in top line from the first quarter to the second quarter, like prior years, and we should see a more uniform quarterly sales pattern, albeit increasing as we sequentially move through 2023.
轉到第 9 頁。這張幻燈片總結了我們第二季度的指導意見。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的那樣,由於我們年初的大量積壓和供應鏈的改善,我們預計 2023 年的季度季節性與歷史模式相比會有所不同。因此,我們預計從第一季度到第二季度的收入不會像往年那樣大幅增加,而且我們應該會看到更加統一的季度銷售模式,儘管隨著我們依次進入 2023 年,這種情況會有所增加。
For the second quarter, we anticipate organic sales growth of 15%, with 9% from volume and 6% from pricing. We are projecting adjusted operating profit of $190 million at the midpoint, with pricing, volume and productivity benefits partially offset by inflation and growth investments with the resulting adjusted operating margin up 600 basis points from prior year. We have not provided adjusted free cash flow guidance for the second quarter, but we expect positive cash flow in each of the remaining quarters with sequential increases, and we reiterate our full year guidance on the next slide, which is a good segue.
對於第二季度,我們預計有機銷售額增長 15%,其中銷量增長 9%,定價增長 6%。我們預計調整後營業利潤中點為 1.9 億美元,定價、銷量和生產力收益部分被通貨膨脹和增長投資所抵消,由此產生的調整後營業利潤率比上一年提高 600 個基點。我們沒有為第二季度提供調整後的自由現金流量指導,但我們預計其餘每個季度的現金流量都是正的,並且連續增長,我們在下一張幻燈片上重申我們的全年指導,這是一個很好的過渡。
Moving to the next slide, Slide 10, where we summarize our full year guidance. We have raised our -- as Gio mentioned, we have raised our 2023 adjusted operating profit guidance by $25 million at the midpoint, building on our strong first quarter performance. Although we experienced favorable supply chain dynamics in the first quarter, there remains uncertainty in certain pockets of our procurement, including notably power semiconductors. So we are approaching volume estimates for the rest of the year with caution. This may be perceived as conservatism, but we believe it is the prudent approach at this point based upon the supply chain volatility we have all seen in the last 18 months, as we know, things can change quickly.
轉到下一張幻燈片,幻燈片 10,我們在其中總結了我們的全年指導。正如 Gio 所提到的,我們已經提高了我們的 2023 年調整後營業利潤預期的中點 2500 萬美元,這建立在我們強勁的第一季度業績的基礎上。儘管我們在第一季度經歷了有利的供應鏈動態,但我們採購的某些領域仍然存在不確定性,尤其是功率半導體。因此,我們謹慎地接近今年剩餘時間的銷量估計。這可能被視為保守主義,但我們認為這是基於過去 18 個月我們都看到的供應鏈波動的審慎做法,正如我們所知,事情可能會迅速改變。
We are guiding full year adjusted operating margin of 12.3% as we continue our progress towards an anticipated 16% in the intermediate term and 20% in the long term. And as I mentioned, we are reiterating our adjusted free cash flow guidance for the full year of $350 million at the midpoint.
隨著我們繼續朝著預期的中期 16% 和長期 20% 的目標邁進,我們指導全年調整後的營業利潤率為 12.3%。正如我所提到的,我們重申我們調整後的全年自由現金流量指引為 3.5 億美元的中點。
With that said, I turn it back over to Gio.
話雖如此,我把它轉回給 Gio。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Well, thank you, David. Let us then turn to Slide 11, and let's summarize the key takeaways. So a very good first quarter. Momentum is continuing. Market remains healthy, and we benefit from having a large backlog and a better supply chain and more capacity. We are raising our AOP guidance given a good Q1 performance.
嗯,謝謝你,大衛。然後讓我們轉到幻燈片 11,讓我們總結一下要點。所以第一季度非常好。勢頭還在繼續。市場保持健康,我們受益於大量積壓、更好的供應鍊和更多產能。鑑於第一季度的良好表現,我們正在提高我們的 AOP 指導。
I am very pleased to announce Vertiv will be hosting its first Investor Conference on November 29 at the New York Stock Exchange. More details certainly to come, but already now, hope your pencil is down your calendars, and we hope you will be able to join us.
我很高興地宣布,Vertiv 將於 11 月 29 日在紐約證券交易所舉辦其首屆投資者大會。更多細節肯定會到來,但現在已經開始了,希望你的鉛筆記在你的日曆上,我們希望你能加入我們。
As Dave, Dave Cote is known for saying, "The trick is in the doing and we are getting after the doing." And that means a strong execution, supported by a high-performing team and culture, make sure there are no shortcuts, no magic wands, the doing is clarity of vision, alignment and relentless focus on improvement and execution.
正如戴夫 (Dave) 所說,戴夫·科特 (Dave Cote) 的名言是:“訣竅在於行動,而我們正在行動之後。”這意味著強大的執行力,在高績效團隊和文化的支持下,確保沒有捷徑,沒有魔杖,這樣做是為了清晰的願景、協調一致以及對改進和執行的不懈關注。
I am very proud of the staff (inaudible) we continue to take as an organization, and I want to thank the entire Vertiv team for the ever-increasing focus and passion and execution. We are still in the early stages of our acceleration. And after my first quarter as a CEO, I'm more optimistic than ever about our path ahead.
我為我們作為一個組織繼續聘請的員工(聽不清)感到非常自豪,我要感謝整個 Vertiv 團隊不斷增加的專注、熱情和執行力。我們仍處於加速發展的早期階段。在我擔任首席執行官的第一個季度之後,我對我們的前進道路比以往任何時候都更加樂觀。
With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator who will open the line for questions for us. Thank you very much.
有了這個,我們現在將把電話轉給接線員,接線員將為我們打開問題熱線。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.
(操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Gio, could you give us a little more color into your end markets and elaborate on your comments that you think orders could turn positive later this year? I think some investors are probably surprised that cloud and colocation markets in the Americas have hung in as well as they have. So maybe more specific color on those markets? And then how much of the incremental orders or pipeline that you see -- or would you say more AI focused? And what gives you the confidence that China is going to come back in the second half of the year?
Gio,你能否給我們更多關於你的終端市場的顏色,並詳細說明你認為今年晚些時候訂單可能會轉正的評論?我認為一些投資者可能對美洲的雲計算和主機託管市場的表現如此之好感到驚訝。那麼這些市場上可能有更具體的顏色?然後你看到了多少增量訂單或管道——或者你會說更多的人工智能?又是什麼讓你有信心下半年中國會捲土重來?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Okay. Well, thank you for your question, Andy. I would say that many elements for this confidence. One is what we see in the pipelines and pipelines are moving, we are definitely pleased by our book-to-bill ratio at 1, as we were saying, especially given the overage in sales relative to Q1 guidance. But as we said, the -- especially the hyperscalers and not stopping their investment.
好的。嗯,謝謝你的問題,安迪。我會說這種信心有很多因素。一個是我們在管道和管道中看到的情況,正如我們所說,我們對我們的訂單出貨比為 1 感到非常高興,特別是考慮到銷售量相對於第一季度的指導超額。但正如我們所說,特別是超大規模企業並沒有停止他們的投資。
We also heard some prominent hyperscalers in the last few days, sending messages about their infrastructure spend. So there is positivity in the year. And again, that resounds with our -- with what we see in the pipeline.
過去幾天,我們還聽到一些著名的超大規模企業發送有關其基礎設施支出的消息。所以這一年有積極的一面。再一次,這與我們在管道中看到的內容相呼應。
Now we talked last time about normalization, and that's what we continue to see. So do not be surprised when we will see still the second quarter that on a competitive basis will be down year-on-year, but up in absolute terms versus Q1 as we were saying. But again, there is movement out there. There is a positivity.
現在我們上次談到了正常化,這就是我們繼續看到的。因此,當我們仍然看到第二季度在競爭基礎上同比下降,但正如我們所說的那樣,與第一季度相比絕對值上升時,請不要感到驚訝。但同樣,那裡有動靜。有一種積極性。
Now not all the hyperscalers are exactly in the same place or all the colos are in the same place, but many of the large ones are -- continues to plan capacity expansion. It is difficult to your point about AI. It's difficult to really draw a line between AI investment, enabling investment and other investments. I would say that the line is blurring. One would think that AI is a totally new thing. Certainly, generative AI is accelerating very rapidly. But there are elements in AI and everything we do today already. So if anything, we see an acceleration not a sharp transition to something completely new.
現在並不是所有的超大規模數據中心都在同一個地方,或者所有的數據中心都在同一個地方,但許多大型數據中心都在繼續計劃容量擴張。你關於人工智能的觀點很難。很難真正在人工智能投資、支持投資和其他投資之間劃清界限。我會說這條線很模糊。人們會認為人工智能是一種全新的事物。當然,生成式 AI 的發展速度非常快。但是人工智能中有一些元素,我們今天所做的一切都已經存在。因此,如果有的話,我們看到的是加速而不是向全新事物的急劇過渡。
But we see AI in terms of the type of conversations and specifications that we see coming our way. And again, as I was saying, when going through the slides, a lot about power density, and a lot about bigger capacity investments, kind of bigger chunks and that's encouraging.
但是我們從我們看到的對話類型和規範的角度來看待人工智能。再一次,正如我所說,在瀏覽幻燈片時,很多關於功率密度,還有很多關於更大的容量投資,更大的塊,這是令人鼓舞的。
So again, AI as a transition and I invite everyone to think AI more in terms of a transition towards a higher density, higher density compute and high-density power as a consequence.
因此,人工智能再次作為一種過渡,我邀請大家更多地從向更高密度、更高密度計算和高密度功率的過渡的角度來思考人工智能。
You were asking about China. We believe China will reaccelerate in the second half. The best indicator -- 2 indicators. That's what we see other markets, other industries than China in general is an economy say in and trending towards but also we see it quite clearly in our pipeline. Our pipelines are strongly accelerating in China. Hope I answered your question.
你問的是中國。我們相信中國將在下半年重新加速。最佳指標——2個指標。這就是我們看到的其他市場,中國以外的其他行業總體上是一個經濟體所說的和趨勢,但我們也很清楚地看到它在我們的管道中。我們的管道在中國正在大力加速。希望我回答了你的問題。
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD and U.S. Industrial Sector Head
You did. And I asked it in 4 parts. So Gio, just a little more color on free cash flow. Obviously, much better than your initial expectations for Q1. We know it's one of our tops focus if not your top focus this year. So you didn't raise the guide as you said. Is that just sort of prudent, and what have you really changed so far this year about collecting cash?
你做到了。我問了 4 個部分。所以 Gio,在自由現金流上多一點色彩。顯然,比您最初對第一季度的預期要好得多。我們知道,即使這不是您今年的首要關注點,也是我們的首要關注點之一。所以你並沒有像你說的那樣去養導引。這是否有點謹慎,今年到目前為止,您在收取現金方面真正改變了什麼?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Yes. Multifaceted question. I'll ask also David to chip in at a certain stage. But I would say that when we look at Q1 is really a combination of a better AOP, better profit certainly helped, and the are kind of our payments, advanced payments that helped. We know that we have work to do on the trade working capital and we are focusing on that.
是的。多方面的問題。我還會請大衛在某個階段參與進來。但我會說,當我們看第一季度時,確實是更好的 AOP 的組合,更好的利潤肯定有幫助,而且我們的付款、預付款也有所幫助。我們知道我們在貿易營運資金方面有工作要做,我們正在專注於此。
For us, that means concentrating especially on inventory and for us, industry -- inventory reduction and inventory optimization means working intensely on supplier lead time reduction, execution in everything that is a size of material planning, material management production planning. Vendor management in general, we are activating a lot of vendor-managed inventory agreements, all things that will go in the direction of shortening the cycle.
對我們來說,這意味著特別關注庫存,對我們來說,行業 - 庫存減少和庫存優化意味著在減少供應商交貨時間、執行材料計劃、材料管理生產計劃等所有方面進行深入研究。供應商管理總的來說,我們正在激活很多供應商管理的庫存協議,所有的事情都會朝著縮短週期的方向發展。
As the cycle shortens our inventory go down, I was talking about supply chain resiliency, that's a big element. Supply performance is a big element because we can reduce our safety stock without impacting our service level, et cetera. So it's a system. It's an array of actions. And I think that touched upon the most important. David, anything else to add? Of course, it's not just inventory. There are many facets.
隨著周期的縮短,我們的庫存下降,我在談論供應鏈的彈性,這是一個重要因素。供應績效是一個重要因素,因為我們可以在不影響服務水平等的情況下減少安全庫存。所以這是一個系統。這是一系列的動作。我認為這觸及了最重要的一點。大衛,還有什麼要補充的嗎?當然,不僅僅是庫存。有很多方面。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. I think the important thing Gio mentioned, the beat in the first quarter was driven by higher profitability and the advanced payments. The advanced payments were super focused on that. But that's a matter of timing. We have to prove that execution over and over as we get through the year or it will just be accelerating cash we would have seen later in the year into the first quarter. So we'll have a better update in 3 months from now. And at this point, we're still very comfortable with that $300 million to $400 million guide.
是的。我認為 Gio 提到的重要事情是,第一季度的節拍是由更高的盈利能力和預付款推動的。預付款非常專注於此。但這是時間問題。我們必須在這一年中一遍又一遍地證明執行力,否則它只會加速我們在今年晚些時候看到的現金進入第一季度。所以我們將在 3 個月後進行更好的更新。在這一點上,我們仍然對 3 億至 4 億美元的指南感到非常滿意。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Maybe we could just start with the Americas. Obviously, like the biggest source of the beat and really, really impressive growth this quarter. Can you just talk maybe about how you see that phasing throughout the rest of the year because I expect that 60% plus organic growth probably isn't sustainable.
也許我們可以從美洲開始。顯然,這是節拍的最大來源,也是本季度真正、非常令人印象深刻的增長。你能不能談談你如何看待今年餘下時間的分階段,因為我預計 60% 以上的有機增長可能是不可持續的。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
I would say that we have been able to overperform in the Americas, we were talking about, of course, 60%. If you think about the -- what the details David gave us with a 48% volume. So you think about almost 50% volume is certainly a reflection of a much more reliable supply chain. Absolutely not perfect yet, as I was saying. But very, very importantly, in availability of capacity that we did not have before. So we have more capacity now than we had in the past and certainly a lot more capacity to serve an industry that needs capacity.
我想說的是,我們在美洲表現出色,當然,我們談論的是 60%。如果你想想——大衛給我們提供了 48% 的詳細信息。所以你認為幾乎 50% 的數量肯定反映了一個更可靠的供應鏈。正如我所說,還絕對不完美。但非常非常重要的是,我們以前沒有的容量可用性。因此,我們現在擁有比過去更多的能力,當然也有更多的能力來服務需要能力的行業。
We, in the Americas have done -- we have approached the improvements in the Americas at many, many angles, alignment, talent, leadership capacity processes, fixed supply chain, a lot of price, price, price, but we continue to have a strong backlog also in the Americas.
我們在美洲已經完成了——我們已經從很多很多角度、聯盟、人才、領導能力流程、固定供應鏈、很多價格、價格、價格等方面接近了美洲的改進,但我們仍然有一個美洲也有大量積壓。
Now comparatives will be a little bit more challenging, but we continue to see growth for the rest of the year. So the strength of the first quarter was not a fluke. It was simply, okay, let's say, simply a reflection of all the hard work and the investment and the transformation of a business and a culture towards a strength that we did not certainly have a year ago.
現在比較將更具挑戰性,但我們將繼續看到今年剩餘時間的增長。所以第一節的強勢並不是僥倖。可以說,這只是對所有辛勤工作和投資的反映,以及對企業和文化的轉變,以實現我們一年前肯定沒有的實力。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Got it. So maybe it's fair to say that if you guys are making the claim not for the whole business, there's less seasonality this year. And revenue can be kind of stable throughout the year versus what you reported in 1Q, that comment may also apply to the Americas. Is that a fair characterization?
知道了。所以也許可以公平地說,如果你們不是針對整個業務提出索賠,那麼今年的季節性就會減少。與您在第一季度報告的收入相比,全年收入可能比較穩定,該評論可能也適用於美洲。這是一個公平的表徵嗎?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Very much so. Very much so. And our business -- norma business, is there is such a thing as kind of a pre-COVID normal, would have shown always kind of a very steep second half towards last quarter type of seasonality, it will be much flatter here across the year, in particular for the Americas. I don't know, David, anything you want to add?
非常如此。非常如此。而我們的業務——正常業務,是否存在像 COVID 之前的正常情況這樣的事情,下半年總是會表現出非常陡峭的上一季度類型的季節性,全年這裡會更加平坦,特別是美洲。我不知道,大衛,你有什麼要補充的嗎?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. And Nicole, just to help with your modeling. You have all the components to look at first half, second half. We definitely -- we see -- still see a $250 million, $300 million increase in sales in the second half versus first half. We do anticipate more uniformity than in prior years. If you look at it from a regional perspective, most of the lift that you'll see in the second half will come from APAC and the Americas and EMEA would be relatively uniform.
是的。還有妮可,只是為了幫助你做模特。你有所有的組件來查看上半場和下半場。我們肯定——我們看到——與上半年相比,下半年的銷售額仍然增加了 2.5 億美元、3 億美元。我們確實預計比往年更加統一。如果你從區域的角度來看,你將在下半年看到的大部分提升將來自亞太地區,而美洲和 EMEA 將相對均勻。
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, with all of the news about potential credit crunch, can you guys just talk about how concerned you are about a tighter financing environment potentially impacting project activity in the data center space.
好的。這很有幫助。作為後續行動,關於潛在信貸緊縮的所有新聞,你們能否談談你們對可能影響數據中心領域項目活動的更緊縮融資環境的擔憂。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
In this moment, again, the thing that we keep an eye on is really what customers or our customer's customers tell us what we see in the pipeline. It's hard to -- it's hard for us to speculate on the consequences of the consequences. It's hard to say -- what we think is that the biggest portion of our market, say, everything related to hyperscale but not only colocation, seem not to be extremely bothered by this at this stage.
在這一刻,我們再次關注的是客戶或我們客戶的客戶告訴我們我們在管道中看到的內容。很難——我們很難推測後果的後果。很難說——我們認為我們市場的最大部分,比如說,與超大規模相關的一切,而不僅僅是主機託管,在現階段似乎並沒有為此感到極度困擾。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Scott Davis from Melius Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Good to see your stock price up. But let's -- if you don't mind, Gio, I'd love to go back to AI and -- because this is also new to so many of us and the materiality of the comments is always hard to really get our arms around. But when you think about the faster -- the heat -- the thermal management, the faster speed switches and all the stuff that might be necessary. Is -- are your orders just for a different mix or a higher end mix of new or are you talking about retrofit and there's some demand there to go back into existing data centers and upgrade perhaps at a faster clip than you'd anticipated prior.
很高興看到你的股價上漲。但是讓我們——如果你不介意的話,Gio,我很想回到 AI 並且——因為這對我們很多人來說也是新的,而且評論的重要性總是很難真正得到我們的支持.但是當你想到更快的——熱量——熱管理、更快的速度開關和所有可能需要的東西時。是——你的訂單只是為了不同的組合還是更高端的新組合,或者你在談論改造,那裡有一些需求回到現有的數據中心,並可能以比你之前預期更快的速度升級。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Hello, first of all, Scott, thank you for the question. I say you quite an insightful question. In a sense that in this moment, it's predominantly a new infrastructure conversation. But I -- as CEO, Vertiv as a whole, we're extremely intrigued by the opportunities out there because there is a lot of large data center stock, of course. And thinking that all the high density will be brand new into an existing data center infrastructure, which certainly happened.
你好,首先,斯科特,謝謝你提出這個問題。我說你是一個很有見地的問題。從某種意義上說,此時此刻,它主要是一個新的基礎設施對話。但我——作為整個 Vertiv 的首席執行官,我們對那裡的機會非常感興趣,因為當然有很多大型數據中心庫存。並認為所有的高密度都將是全新的現有數據中心基礎設施,這確實發生了。
But it's solely happening in that dimension. No. We believe that the opportunity for retrofit will be there, a bit premature, I must say. But one thing I'm sure we are extremely well positioned there, a, because in the existing stock of data center globally, we have a big installed base. So no one better than current vendor can help you transition to the new technology, but also again, because if you think about our global presence of service domain knowledge.
但它只發生在那個空間。不,我們相信會有改造的機會,但我必須說,這有點為時過早。但有一件事我確信我們在那裡的定位非常好,a,因為在全球現有的數據中心存量中,我們擁有龐大的安裝基礎。因此,沒有比當前供應商更好的供應商可以幫助您過渡到新技術,而且,因為如果您考慮我們在全球範圍內的服務領域知識。
And one thing that is interesting, as I alluded to, probably a little bit too rapidly in -- when we're going through the slides is that, when I talk to them, to our customers, rarely do they think binary in terms, oh it's all AI, oh, it's all -- the new infrastructure is all very high density. The most think about an infrastructure that needs to be resilient over time and enable a transition of technology they probably last 10 years. So this mix and change of mix is very -- it's very intriguing. It's very interesting and very promising tool for us (inaudible).
一件有趣的事,正如我提到的,可能有點太快了——當我們瀏覽幻燈片時,當我與他們交談時,與我們的客戶交談時,他們很少用二元術語來思考,哦,都是人工智能,哦,都是——新的基礎設施都是非常高密度的。大多數人認為基礎設施需要隨著時間的推移具有彈性,並支持他們可能持續 10 年的技術過渡。所以這種混合和混合變化非常 - 非常有趣。這對我們來說是非常有趣且非常有前途的工具(聽不清)。
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
And Gio, just (inaudible)
而 Gio,只是(聽不清)
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
(inaudible)
(聽不清)
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research
I'm sorry. Go Ahead. Were you going to jump in there, David? Or -- I'm sorry, guys, you must have bad connection. But let me -- I just -- I hate to ask a question. I think I know the answer, and it may be stupid. But when you think -- when you talk about an order that's coming in, in a facility that needs to manage the power density of AI, are you talking about a larger bill of goods or with a higher margin mix or kind of help us understand and what magnitude is it? Is it 10% more intensity of Vertiv products? Is it double? Is there some sort of way to think about TAM as it relates to what may happen here and the changes necessary to accommodate AI?
對不起。前進。你打算跳進去嗎,大衛?或者——對不起,伙計們,你們的網絡一定不好。但是讓我——我只是——我討厭問一個問題。我想我知道答案,而且可能是愚蠢的。但是當你思考——當你談論即將到來的訂單時,在一個需要管理人工智能功率密度的設施中,你是在談論更大的貨物清單還是更高的利潤率組合或者某種程度上幫助我們理解它有多大? Vertiv 產品的強度是否提高了 10%?是雙倍的嗎?是否有某種方式來考慮 TAM,因為它與這裡可能發生的事情以及適應 AI 所需的變化有關?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
I would say the investment is not marginal in terms of portion of infrastructure. And I would say that the total accessible market is not -- certainly not shrinking, certainly not shrinking, if anything, expanding because, again, you have to think system and not just individual piece of technology more in the future than today. And we can think system.
我想說的是,就基礎設施部分而言,投資並不是微不足道的。我要說的是,整個可訪問市場不會——當然不會縮小,當然不會縮小,如果有的話,擴大,因為,再一次,你必須比現在更多地考慮系統,而不僅僅是單個技術。我們可以思考系統。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research..
我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
So we've had a pretty decent competition about AI. So I want to switch to the more prosaic enterprise market now. I mean we've seen some negative data points on enterprise IT spending. So just curious, recognizing the fact that your outlook hasn't changed by end market. But on balance, are you seeing a more cautious enterprise customer out there maybe just brief up to speed in terms of where we are on that migration path from on-prem to cloud.
所以我們在人工智能方面進行了相當不錯的競爭。所以我現在想轉向更平淡無奇的企業市場。我的意思是我們已經看到了一些關於企業 IT 支出的負面數據。所以只是好奇,認識到你的前景沒有被終端市場改變的事實。但總的來說,你是否看到了一個更謹慎的企業客戶,他們可能只是簡要介紹了我們在從本地到雲的遷移路徑上所處的位置。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
The migration plan from on -- and Nigel, first of all, the migration is continuing, but it's -- again, it's not from 100% on-prem, 100% cloud. I'd say that there are elements of stabilization. Clearly, migration continues. We see the enterprise business growing at single digit in this moment. More or less, that's what we see also through our channel business that, by the way, is in a good health right now. So -- and think about enterprise business also as not just data center, but we see also enterprise demand on the commercial and industrial part of the business as a consequence of trends like near shoring. So we see good level of activity there.
從開始的遷移計劃 - 奈傑爾,首先,遷移仍在繼續,但它 - 再一次,它不是來自 100% 本地,100% 雲。我會說有穩定的因素。顯然,遷移仍在繼續。我們看到此時企業業務以個位數增長。或多或少,這也是我們通過我們的渠道業務看到的,順便說一句,目前狀況良好。因此 - 不僅將企業業務視為數據中心,而且我們還看到企業對業務的商業和工業部分的需求是近岸支持等趨勢的結果。所以我們看到那裡的活動水平很高。
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Okay. So it doesn't sound like you've seen any deterioration there. Okay. And then maybe just to talk about the pipeline. You talked about a very encouraging pipeline, especially in China in the second half of the year. But when you think about the visibility and your confidence in future backlog growth, would you say that the Americas are still a place where you feel more confident in the outlook?
好的。所以聽起來你沒有看到那裡有任何惡化。好的。然後也許只是談論管道。你談到了一個非常令人鼓舞的管道,尤其是下半年在中國。但是,當您考慮未來積壓增長的可見性和信心時,您會說美洲仍然是您對前景更有信心的地方嗎?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
More confident than other places or you're asking...
比其他地方更有信心,或者你在問......
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Your pipeline is stronger -- yes, where do see the most vibrant pipeline.
您的管道更強大——是的,在哪裡可以看到最有活力的管道。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
I would say that clearly, the size of the pipeline is different in different regions, reflecting the markets that we serve. We see pipeline particularly [vacant] if you will, in China and in Asia. And we see good level of pipeline supporting our plans in the other parts of (inaudible) in Europe and in EMEA and in the Americas. So I'd say that I am positively encouraged. I'm encouraged by the size of the pipeline and by the speed at which we are creating new pipeline.
我想說的很清楚,不同地區的管道規模不同,反映了我們服務的市場。如果你願意的話,我們看到管道特別[空置],在中國和亞洲。我們看到在歐洲、歐洲、中東和非洲以及美洲的其他地區(聽不清)有良好的管道支持我們的計劃。所以我想說我受到了積極的鼓勵。我對管道的規模和我們創建新管道的速度感到鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Yes. Congratulations on the good results. I had one on the pricing outlook for 2023. So you're now expecting a bit higher pricing than you assumed as of last quarter and you're doing it with less volume. So can you see a little bit more on where the pricing is coming from and what's leading to the higher price for 2023?
是的。祝賀取得好成績。我對 2023 年的定價前景有一個看法。所以你現在期望的定價比你在上個季度假設的要高一些,而且你正在以更少的數量進行定價。那麼,您能否更多地了解定價的來源以及導致 2023 年價格上漲的原因?
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Mark. So you're right. We took our full year pricing guide up from $275 million to $300 million. We hit the number in Q1, but there's always a little bit of art as it relates to defining what pricing is. And when we look at our backlog and run the numbers versus last year, they're coming up higher. And we continue to be successful with our new pricing. I think the incremental $25 million came from a recalculation of the carryover, but the big thing with the pricing is it's not turning the other way. So the pricing in the market certainly in the Americas and EMEA, it's sticking, and we're continue to be out there, and we think we're kind of at the right price point, but we'll continue to push it a little bit.
是的。謝謝,馬克。所以你是對的。我們將全年定價指南從 2.75 億美元提高到 3 億美元。我們在第一季度達到了這個數字,但在定義什麼是定價方面總是有一些藝術。當我們查看我們的積壓訂單並將這些數字與去年相比時,它們正在上升。我們通過新定價繼續取得成功。我認為增加的 2500 萬美元來自結轉的重新計算,但定價的重要之處在於它沒有轉向另一個方向。所以市場定價肯定在美洲和 EMEA,它很穩定,我們會繼續在那裡,我們認為我們的價格有點合適,但我們會繼續推動它一點少量。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Management.
我們的下一個問題來自垂直管理的 Jeff Sprague。
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner
Just wanted to -- if I'm going to do one, maybe just go to free cash flow. David, you pointed out maybe people were a little too nervous about your leverage. But I did want to just get to the point of conversion. Your free cash flow, the EBITDA is about 40% or so. A lot of companies in my group kind of operate in the 60% range or so. So how do we kind of get that conversion relative to your EBITDA higher? Are there any things in particular that need to happen? I think working capital is probably a big chunk of it, but maybe you could bridge us to potential improvement in the out years on that metric.
只是想 - 如果我要做一個,也許只是去自由現金流。大衛,你指出也許人們對你的影響力有點過於緊張。但我確實想直達轉變點。你的自由現金流,EBITDA 大約是 40% 左右。我團隊中的很多公司都在 60% 左右的範圍內運營。那麼我們如何才能使相對於您的 EBITDA 的轉化率更高呢?有什麼特別需要發生的事情嗎?我認為營運資金可能佔其中很大一部分,但也許你可以讓我們了解未來幾年該指標的潛在改進。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. We talked about this a little bit on the first quarter call. Our long-term goal, of course, every industrials get to 100. That's very dependent upon growth because trade working capital is the biggest drag. So I think if you look at the metric based on 2023, and you have to look at adjusted net income, it's probably 75%. The 2 biggest drags versus getting to 100 is working capital. And then also, we're over investing this year with CapEx. So our depreciation, if you include software amortization is probably close to $90 million, $95 million, but we have $140 million of CapEx a lot of that, which is supporting additional capacity.
是的。我們在第一季度的電話會議上談到了這一點。當然,我們的長期目標是每個工業都達到 100。這在很大程度上取決於增長,因為貿易營運資金是最大的拖累。所以我認為如果你看一下基於 2023 年的指標,你必須看一下調整後的淨收入,它可能是 75%。與達到 100 相比,最大的 2 個阻力是營運資金。然後,我們今年也在資本支出方面進行了過度投資。因此,如果包括軟件攤銷,我們的折舊可能接近 9000 萬美元、9500 萬美元,但我們有 1.4 億美元的資本支出,其中很多用於支持額外的產能。
So in the long run, that has to stabilize just mathematically. So that will probably close maybe a little less than half of that gap. But in the long run, your point is absolutely right on. It has to be work -- with working capital. And we made some progress here in the first quarter, and we project that, that will continue to make progress over the rest of the year. But in the long run, to hit that target, we're going to have to continue to optimize inventory and balance out AR and AP.
所以從長遠來看,這必須在數學上穩定下來。因此,這可能會縮小不到一半的差距。但從長遠來看,你的觀點是完全正確的。它必須是工作——有營運資金。我們在第一季度在這裡取得了一些進展,我們預計,這將在今年剩餘時間繼續取得進展。但從長遠來看,要實現這一目標,我們將不得不繼續優化庫存並平衡 AR 和 AP。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Amit Daryanani from Evercore.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst
I guess my question is really on the backlog side. The $4.8 billion backlog, I'd love to understand how do you think that looks into year-end? Just trying to get a sense of how much of the growth do you think this year is going to come from backlog conversion versus not? And anything you would call out in terms of cancellations, something would be really helpful. And then separately, Gio, I'm hoping you could talk a little bit on this AI dynamic. A lot of the hyperscale companies, I think, at this point are debating if they want to do 100% immersion liquid cooling or hybrid cooling. Do you think your value proposition is as attractive in the immersion liquid cooling market as it's on the hybrid side?
我想我的問題確實是在積壓方面。 48 億美元的積壓,我很想知道您如何看待年底?只是想了解一下您認為今年的增長有多少來自積壓轉換,而不是來自積壓轉換?任何你會在取消方面提出的要求,都會非常有幫助。然後,Gio,我希望你能談談這個 AI 動態。我認為,許多超大規模公司此時正在爭論他們是否要進行 100% 浸入式液體冷卻或混合冷卻。您認為您的價值主張在浸入式液體冷卻市場上是否與在混合方面一樣具有吸引力?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Well, many questions in one. So -- thank you, Amit. So first of all, backlog. Clearly, $4.8 million (sic) [$4.8 billion] is a good number as we were seeing at the beginning. But let's go back to February, when we're saying we are entering 2022 with more than 70% backlog coverage, and that's not "normal." We still believe that is the case. I mean if you go back to whatever the normal would be, we would be probably on a 50% or below 50% backlog coverage. So I'd like to think in terms of percent, not necessarily absolute number. So probably when we go into 2024, we will be more on -- we will be -- most likely we will be in a lower coverage than the 70% we saw last year.
好吧,很多問題合而為一。所以——謝謝你,阿米特。所以首先,積壓。顯然,480 萬美元(原文如此)[48 億美元] 是一個不錯的數字,正如我們在開始時看到的那樣。但讓我們回到 2 月,當時我們說我們將以超過 70% 的積壓覆蓋率進入 2022 年,這並不“正常”。我們仍然認為是這樣。我的意思是,如果你回到正常狀態,我們可能會處於 50% 或低於 50% 的積壓覆蓋率。所以我想用百分比來思考,不一定是絕對數字。因此,當我們進入 2024 年時,我們的覆蓋率可能會比去年的 70% 更低。
Now it's a little bit premature really to say how everything will pan out. But think in terms of a lower backlog coverage going forward. Again, that's normal. We talked about lead times. We talked about the reduction of lead time and with the reduction of lead time and the levels of backlog coverage that we had at the beginning of 2023 are incompatible. So simply, the industry will adjust again.
現在說一切將如何發展還為時過早。但考慮到未來積壓覆蓋率會降低。再一次,這很正常。我們談到了交貨時間。我們談到了提前期的減少,隨著提前期的減少,我們在 2023 年初的積壓覆蓋水平是不相容的。這麼簡單,行業又要調整了。
Clearly, a lot of the revenue in 2023 comes from backlog conversion, but that's just in the math, in the numbers. But you're talking about cancellations. Nothing out of the ordinary.
顯然,2023 年的很多收入來自積壓轉換,但這只是數學上的數字。但你說的是取消。沒有什麼不尋常的。
And let me talk about cooling technology. As I was saying earlier, it will be a hybrid world from a cooling technology standpoint and the degree of the mix between traditional and liquid will probably change over time very, very small percent of liquid at the beginning and then increasing in the next years, I would say, certainly not months, years.
讓我談談冷卻技術。正如我之前所說,從冷卻技術的角度來看,這將是一個混合世界,傳統和液體之間的混合程度可能會隨著時間的推移而變化,開始時液體的比例非常非常小,然後在未來幾年內增加,我會說,當然不是幾個月,幾年。
You're talking about immersion cooling, immersion cooling is just one of the liquid cooling technologies. There are a lot of our technologies that in this moment, are competing in a technology landscape that is not mature yet. And we are working with some of the biggest hyperscalers and some of the biggest chip manufacturers to really make sure that we align our technology to their evolution and we make sure that we enable their scaling, their solutions out in the market.
你說的是浸沒式冷卻,浸沒式冷卻只是液冷技術中的一種。目前,我們的許多技術都在尚未成熟的技術領域競爭。我們正在與一些最大的超大規模生產商和一些最大的芯片製造商合作,以真正確保我們的技術與他們的發展保持一致,並確保我們能夠實現他們的規模化,將他們的解決方案推向市場。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Lance Vitanza from TD Cowen.
下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Lance Vitanza。
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst
Nice job on the quarter. My question is with respect to E&I, as the supply chain has continued to improve, is E&I a drag still? Or has it become a tailwind in the first quarter results? And how do you see that playing out? And then related to that, strategically, are there any other potential acquisitions out there, perhaps tuck-ins that would allow Vertiv to further improve the scope of its product offering and its competitive positioning versus some of the other larger players?
本季度幹得好。我的問題是關於 E&I,隨著供應鏈的不斷改善,E&I 是否仍然是一個拖累?還是成為第一季度業績的順風車?您如何看待這種情況?然後與此相關的是,從戰略上講,是否還有其他潛在的收購,也許是允許 Vertiv 進一步改善其產品範圍和相對於其他一些更大的參與者的競爭定位的收購?
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
We are happy with the progress on the E&I side of the business. I think it was February, when I was talking about making sure that we accelerate integration, we have taken steps in that direction. In particular, we are embedding the American part of the E&I organization in the bigger Americas business also operationally, so we're satisfied with the progress there.
我們對 E&I 業務方面的進展感到滿意。我想是在 2 月,當我談到確保我們加速整合時,我們已經朝著這個方向採取了措施。特別是,我們也在業務上將 E&I 組織的美國部分嵌入到更大的美洲業務中,因此我們對那裡的進展感到滿意。
When it comes to portfolio management, in general, it will be anyway premature, but be sure -- rest assured that this is something we keep a keen eye on and it's a part of our management cadence and processes. We certainly are constantly looking at opportunities out there. Sometimes they are mature, sometimes they are not mature, but that's part of what we do.
就投資組合管理而言,一般來說,無論如何都為時過早,但可以肯定的是——請放心,這是我們密切關注的事情,它是我們管理節奏和流程的一部分。我們當然一直在尋找機會。有時他們成熟,有時他們不成熟,但這是我們所做工作的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Patrick Baumann from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Patrick Baumann。
Patrick Michael Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Michael Baumann - Analyst
David, maybe a quick one for you. The free cash flow in the quarter, I think you said there was an advanced payment benefit. Maybe that's reflected as deferred revenue, I don't know, in the cash flow statement. It sounds like this could be timing related based on some of your comments. So it would be helpful to get a sense on second quarter expecting -- second quarter expectations for free cash flow. It's not something that you gave on the slides, but you typically give kind of the forward quarter outlook.
大衛,也許對你來說是一個快速的。本季度的自由現金流,我想你說過有預付款的好處。也許這在現金流量表中反映為遞延收入,我不知道。根據您的一些評論,聽起來這可能與時間相關。因此,了解第二季度的預期會有幫助——第二季度對自由現金流的預期。這不是你在幻燈片上給出的東西,但你通常會給出一些前瞻性的季度展望。
David J. Fallon - CFO
David J. Fallon - CFO
Yes. So first of all, advanced payment could the timing if we do not execute and we have every intention and plan to execute. So you're absolutely right. In the balance sheet, it hits deferred revenue. And we have programs in place, notably in Americas to continue that program with larger orders. And it's something that we have embedded in the process. So we're very optimistic that, that will continue. But to embed that into the guidance, we're going to wait for three months another quarter to kind of reassess that.
是的。因此,首先,如果我們不執行並且我們有充分的意圖和計劃執行,那麼預付款可能是時機。所以你是絕對正確的。在資產負債表中,它觸及遞延收入。我們已經制定了計劃,特別是在美洲,以繼續執行更大訂單的計劃。這是我們已經嵌入到流程中的東西。所以我們非常樂觀,這將繼續下去。但是要將其嵌入到指導中,我們將在另一個季度等待三個月來重新評估它。
As it relates to individual quarterly guidance for free cash flow, I think historically, we have not provided that we did last year. We are not doing that just because of the lumpiness and some of the variability around free cash flow for individual quarters. As we mentioned in the past, we have $40 million to $50 million check runs that could go out one day versus the next and swing a quarter. So I wouldn't read much into that. We're still very confident with the free cash flow program. We do anticipate it to sequentially increase as we move through the year, and we'll reassess that guidance as we get to the end of the second quarter.
由於它涉及自由現金流的個別季度指導,我認為從歷史上看,我們沒有提供我們去年所做的。我們這樣做並不僅僅是因為各個季度自由現金流的不穩定和一些可變性。正如我們過去提到的那樣,我們有 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元的支票運行,這些支票可能會在一天與下一天之間進行,並在一個季度內波動。所以我不會讀太多。我們仍然對自由現金流計劃充滿信心。我們確實預計它會隨著今年的推移而依次增加,並且我們將在第二季度末重新評估該指導。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This is all the questions we have time for today. So I'd like to hand back to Giordano Albertazzi for any closing remarks.
謝謝。這就是我們今天有時間回答的所有問題。因此,我想請 Giordano Albertazzi 發表任何閉幕詞。
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director
Well, thank you very much, and thank you for your questions. We are starting off the year with a strong quarter. We certainly intend to continue to build on that momentum as we make our way through 2023. So we definitely look forward to discussing our progress with you. Appreciate your support. And don't forget, looking forward to seeing you on the 29th of November. So with that, thank you very much.
嗯,非常感謝,也謝謝你的問題。我們以強勁的季度開局。我們當然打算在 2023 年繼續保持這種勢頭。因此,我們非常期待與您討論我們的進展。感謝您的支持。別忘了,期待在 11 月 29 日與您見面。所以,非常感謝你。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.
謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。你現在可以斷開你的線路,並有一個美好的一天。