Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Brika, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vertiv's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President, Investor Relations.

    早安.我叫布里卡,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加 Vertiv 2022 年第四季和全年財報電話會議,本次電話會議正在錄音。現在,我想將節目交給今天電話會議的主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Lynne Maxeiner。

  • Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

    Lynne M. Maxeiner - VP of Global Treasury & IR

  • Right. Thank you, Brika. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Giordano Albertazzi; and Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon. Before we begin, I would like to point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv.

    正確的。謝謝你,布里卡。早上好,歡迎參加 Vertiv 2022 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起的還有 Vertiv 的執行董事長 Dave Cote;執行長 Giordano Albertazzi;和財務長戴維法倫(David Fallon)。在我們開始之前,我想指出的是,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和營運績效。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual and quarterly reports and other filings made with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date.

    這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述的結果有重大差異。我們請您參閱今天的收益報告中包含的警示語,您可以在我們的年度和季度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。

  • We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.

    我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。在本次電話會議中,我們還將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。說完這些,我將把電話轉給執行主席戴夫·科特 (Dave Cote)。

  • David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

    David M. Cote - Executive Chairman

  • Well, 2022 was quite a year of transformation at Vertiv, a year focused on driving price, Americas improvement and progress on a high-performing culture. After a very disappointing 2021, we developed an ambitious plan to turn around the performance of the business over the next 4 quarters. Fourth quarter results demonstrated marked improvement consistent with the profit profile we shared last February.

    好吧,2022 年是 Vertiv 轉型的一年,這一年專注於推動價格、美國的改進和高績效文化的進步。在經歷了令人非常失望的 2021 年之後,我們制定了一項雄心勃勃的計劃,以在接下來的 4 個季度內扭轉業務表現。第四季的業績顯示出明顯的改善,與我們去年二月分享的利潤狀況一致。

  • Our adjusted free cash flow performance, however, was not what it should have been largely because of working capital. We have consistently said the fourth quarter '22 performance will position us well for '23, and we believe that it has. We are increasing our view on 2023 adjusted operating profit guidance primarily due to foreign exchange, and that represents an over 75% increase year-over-year. And our adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to improve significantly because of higher income and less working capital usage.

    然而,我們的調整後自由現金流表現並未達到應有的水平,這主要是由於營運資本的原因。我們一直表示,22年第四季的表現將為我們23年奠定良好基礎,我們相信事實確實如此。我們上調了對 2023 年調整後營業利潤指引的預期,這主要是由於外匯原因,這比去年同期增長了 75% 以上。由於收入增加和營運資本使用減少,我們的調整後自由現金流預計將大幅改善。

  • The demand environment continues to look good, and we're entering 2023 with significant backlog. Gio's focus on improved execution on everything is already apparent, and it certainly demonstrated in the improved performance in the Americas. I'm very excited about where the company is headed with Gio's leadership. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Gio.

    需求環境持續保持良好,我們即將帶著大量積壓訂單進入 2023 年。 Gio 致力於提高所有事項的執行力,這一點已經很明顯,而這在美洲地區業績的提升上也得到了充分的體現。我對公司在吉奧的領導下的未來發展感到非常興奮。因此,我將把電話轉給吉奧。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Thank you, Dave. Thank you very much. I can certainly confirm that already in my initial days as CEO there has been a renewed focus on executional rigor and productivity, combined with the intensity that fosters a high-performance culture. And we are on Slide 3. 2022 was certainly a story of two halves, the first half painful when we did a lot of the hard work needed for acceleration and the second half strong with indeed a very strong fourth quarter, the strongest in our history.

    謝謝你,戴夫。非常感謝。我可以肯定地確認,在我擔任執行長的最初幾天,我就重新專注於執行的嚴謹性和生產力,並專注於培育高績效文化。現在我們處於第 3 張幻燈片上。

  • Fourth quarter organic sales were up 22%, driven by very robust growth in Americas and EMEA. Asia and China, in particular, was hindered by the impact of COVID, and we expect this impact to be short in nature. We extend -- we ended the year again with a record backlog of $4.8 billion, which firmly supports our top line growth projections for 2023. Adjusted operating profit of $211 million was a little short of the guidance range. This is mainly due to the approximately $40 million less volume in China. Closed by the COVID wave there. ENI performance was also weaker than expected due to some project cost overruns. These headwinds were partially offset by foreign exchange, although still negative, more favorable than assumed in our previous guidance provided in October.

    第四季有機銷售額成長 22%,主要得益於美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區的強勁成長。亞洲和中國尤其受到了 COVID 的影響,我們預計這種影響將是短暫的。我們延續這一勢頭——我們再次以創紀錄的 48 億美元積壓訂單結束了這一財年,這有力地支持了我們對 2023 年營收成長的預測。這主要是由於中國的交易量減少了約4000萬美元。因那裡的新冠疫情而關閉。由於部分專案成本超支,埃尼集團的業績也弱於預期。這些不利因素被外匯部分抵消,儘管仍舊是負面因素,但比我們十月份提供的先前指引中假設的更為有利。

  • We are pleased by our pricing performance. We were on plan as we realized $135 million of price in the fourth quarter, and we delivered $365 million for the full year. We executed on the commitment we made early last year. There may have been some skeptics who discounted our ability to get price. That is understandable. I firmly believe that to deliver on commitments is the best way to respond to skepticism. And this is true in general. We demonstrated good sequential improvement in cash in the fourth quarter, but adjusted free cash flow was below expectations.

    我們對我們的定價表現感到滿意。我們按照計劃在第四季度實現了 1.35 億美元的價格,全年實現了 3.65 億美元的價格。我們履行了去年初所做的承諾。可能有一些懷疑論者低估了我們獲取價格的能力。這是可以理解的。我堅信,履行承諾是回應懷疑的最佳方式。總體而言,這是正確的。我們的現金在第四季度表現出良好的連續改善,但調整後的自由現金流低於預期。

  • There are reasons for the shortfall such as delayed collections in China, again, due to COVID and higher inventory due to some continued supply chain constraints because adjusted free cash flow is crucial we're instilling more rigor accountability and discipline in the whole process. David Fallon and I are keenly focused on this. Let's look at 2023. Our guidance a significant stat forward -- a significantly improved performance. Organic sales are expected to increase 15% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance, mainly because of foreign exchange, we are raising our AOP guidance from the $730 million to $750 million we announced in October to $750 million, $800 million now, over 75% increase year-over-year.

    造成缺口的原因有很多,例如由於疫情導致的中國收款延遲,以及由於持續的供應鏈限制導致的庫存增加,因為調整後的自由現金流至關重要,我們正在整個過程中灌輸更嚴格的問責制和紀律。戴維法倫和我非常關注這一點。讓我們展望 2023 年。預計有機銷售額在指引中位數將年增 15%,主要原因是外匯因素,我們將 AOP 指引從 10 月宣布的 7.3 億美元至 7.5 億美元上調至 7.5 億美元,現在為 8 億美元,年成長超過 75%。

  • We're guiding to $300 million to $400 million in adjusted free cash flow, supported by our plan of increased profit and working capital optimization. We will provide additional details around these plans as we make our way through the slides. Of course, we execute the a quarter at a time. It starts with good execution in the first quarter, and we have details on our first quarter guidance later in the slide presentation. Let's now turn to Slide 4, and let's spend a few minutes on the market.

    在增加利潤和優化營運資本的計畫的支持下,我們預計調整後的自由現金流將達到 3 億至 4 億美元。我們將在幻燈片中提供有關這些計劃的更多詳細資訊。當然,我們每次執行四分之一。一切始於第一季的良好執行,我們將在後面的投影片簡報中詳細介紹第一季的指引。現在我們翻到投影片 4,花幾分鐘來了解市場。

  • Only one change from the October view. We moved cloud hyperscale down from green to yellow in EMEA. This was driven by seeing some market signals that demand may be stabilizing, albeit at pretty high levels. Worth noting in general, cloud and hyperscale providers may swing a bit between building capacity in-house or outsourced to (inaudible) providers. So after the two categories should be looked at together. Our Asian market views remain consistent with last quarter. We have operated in a quieter market environment in Asia for 2022.

    與十月份的觀點相比只有一個變化。我們將歐洲、中東和非洲地區的雲超大規模從綠色降至黃色。這是因為市場發出一些訊號,表明需求可能正在趨於穩定,儘管仍處於相當高的水平。總體而言值得注意的是,雲端和超大規模供應商可能會在內部建造容量或外包給(聽不清楚)提供者之間搖擺不定。因此,應該把這兩個類別放在一起看。我們對亞洲市場的看法與上季保持一致。 2022 年,我們在亞洲的市場環境中營運。

  • I've recently visited Asia and I have to say I'm pretty encouraged by what I saw and heard on the ground. For example, India is really just at the beginning of what looks to be a meaningful investment cycle. Americas is also consistent with the last quarter market view. Even though cloud hyperscale may be coming off their height over the last couple of years, they are still growing and investing at a healthy pace and one that supports our trajectory of business.

    我最近訪問了亞洲,我必須說,當地的所見所聞令我深受鼓舞。例如,印度實際上才剛進入一個有意義的投資週期。美洲的情況也與上季的市場觀點一致。儘管過去幾年雲端超大規模可能已不再是其巔峰,但它們仍然在以健康的速度成長和投資,並支持我們的業務發展軌跡。

  • We have discussed periods of digestion before. Certain customers are digesting their capacity. But this is a normal part of the cycle, and they typically digest at different times, which smooths the overall impact in the market. Additionally, spending is being directed to higher-density loads, such as artificial intelligence which demands more compute power and the need for additional infrastructure. We also believe that there is a normalization of orders that is happening as supply chains improved and lead times reduce.

    我們之前討論過消化期。某些客戶正在消化其產能。但這是週期的正常部分,他們通常會在不同的時間消化,從而平滑對市場的整體影響。此外,支出正轉向更高密度負載,例如需要更多運算能力和額外基礎設施的人工智慧。我們也相信,隨著供應鏈的改善和交貨時間的縮短,訂單正在趨於正常化。

  • As this continues, customers are likely going to return to more normal order behavior. That is good for the industry overall but they make order comparatives look more negative than what is really happening in the market. We remain cautious on the enterprise. Now that what we're seeing a different dynamic unfolding since last quarter, but more so because we are mindful of the macro around us. We know this segment would typically be the first to reflect a possible recession in the U.S.A. or at least a period of economic slowdown.

    隨著這種情況的持續,客戶可能會恢復更正常的訂購行為。這對整個產業來說是好事,但是訂單對比結果卻比市場實際情況更為負面。我們對該企業保持謹慎。自上個季度以來,我們看到了不同的動態發展,但更重要的是因為我們關注周圍的宏觀環境。我們知道,這個部分通常會先反映出美國可能出現的經濟衰退或至少是一段經濟放緩時期。

  • This happened in 2020 with economic slowdowns related to COVID-19. So we are staying vigilant. All in all, we remain cautiously optimistic on the market, driven by the continued need for data globally and favorable technology trends like artificial intelligence, requiring a higher density and more compute power. Now let's move to Slide 5. Customer demand still feels good. This is also confirmed by conversations with our customers around the world. Levels of investment and demand for our products and services continue to be healthy. We had signals -- we have signaled that fourth quarter year-on-year orders growth would be negative given a very strong comparison in the prior year, and that is what happened.

    2020 年,由於新冠疫情導致經濟放緩,也出現了這種情況。因此我們保持警惕。總而言之,我們對市場仍然持謹慎樂觀的態度,這得益於全球對數據的持續需求以及人工智慧等有利的技術趨勢,需要更高的密度和更強的運算能力。現在我們來看看投影片 5。我們與世界各地客戶的對話也證實了這一點。對我們的產品和服務的投資和需求水準持續保持健康。我們曾發出訊號-由於與去年同期相比成長非常強勁,我們已經發出訊號,第四季訂單年增將為負,事實也確實如此。

  • As an example, 4Q '21, we experienced an order growth rate of more than 100% in Americas. We expect to see the same in 1Q 2023 with a tough comparison with the prior year. When orders were up 34% and now an environment where customers return to a more normalized pattern of ordering. So we expect Q1 orders to be down double digits. It is hard to provide precision on what double digits could look like as normalization of worded partners is still unfolding. We continue to have record high backlog and ended the year at $4.8 billion, which is a 49% increase from the end of 2021.

    例如,21年第四季,我們在美洲的訂單成長率超過了100%。我們預計 2023 年第一季的情況將與去年同期相同。當訂單量增加 34% 時,客戶就會恢復到更正常的訂購模式。因此我們預計第一季訂單將下降兩位數。由於措詞夥伴的規範化仍在進行中,因此很難準確說明兩位數的具體情況。我們的積壓訂單繼續創下新高,年底訂單額達到 48 億美元,比 2021 年底成長了 49%。

  • This is inclusive of absorbing some order cancellations from a large hyperscale provider. This backlog represents over 70% coverage of the 2023 sales guidance, which is a much higher coverage ratio than we have seen in the past. This is reflective of an industry characterized by a very tight supply chain and still dealing with disruptions. We do think a normalization of the backlog at Vertiv and in the industry in general, is starting. And we expect this to continue as customers are seeing gradual improvement in supply chain and associated reduction in the time.

    這包括吸收一些來自大型超大規模供應商的訂單取消。這項積壓訂單佔 2023 年銷售預期的 70% 以上,這項覆蓋率比我們過去看到的要高得多。這反映出該行業的特點是供應鏈非常緊張,且仍在應對中斷。我們確實認為,Vertiv 以及整個產業的積壓訂單正在開始正常化。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去,因為客戶看到供應鏈逐漸改善,時間也隨之縮短。

  • We believe this process of normalization of the backlog will really be quite healthy for the overall market. We delivered on our pricing expectation, as previously mentioned. We continue to exercise the pricing muscle I referred to already on the 26th of October to price for the value we provide to our customers. Inflation. We still anticipate it to be a headwind in 2023, but we expect to have a net favorable price versus overall inflation impact of approximately $100 million, thanks to the actions and executional rigor we are fostering.

    我們相信,積壓訂單的正常化過程對於整個市場來說確實非常健康。正如前面提到的,我們實現了我們的定價預期。我們將繼續發揮我在 10 月 26 日提到的定價能力,以便為我們向客戶提供的價值定價。通貨膨脹。我們仍預期這將是 2023 年的阻力,但由於我們正在採取的行動和執行嚴謹性,我們預計淨價格相對於整體通膨的影響將達到約 1 億美元。

  • Supply chain continues to incrementally improve, but still not without its challenges, especially in the power electronics area. We are moving from a wack-a-mole environment to one where we are in better control also thanks to the increased supply chain resiliency, our alternative component and supply efforts are enabling. And in summary, while we see some mixed signals in the macro, the long-term demand continues to be healthy for our business. We have a bit of wind in our back relative to price cost, supply chain is trending a bit better. And we started the year in a very strong backlog position.

    供應鏈繼續逐步改善,但仍存在挑戰,特別是在電力電子領域。我們正在從打地鼠的環境轉向一個我們可以更好地控制的環境,這也要歸功於供應鏈彈性的增強,我們的替代組件和供應工作正在發揮作用。總而言之,雖然我們看到宏觀上存在一些混合訊號,但長期需求對我們的業務來說仍然是健康的。我們在價格成本方面有一些優勢,供應鏈的趨勢也較好一些。今年伊始,我們的積壓訂單狀況就非常強勁。

  • Visibility is still not great in a dynamic global environment but we are focused on what we can control. I like where we are starting the year. Our fourth quarter performance sets up well for a successful 2023 despite navigating what could be a more challenging macro environment. We are strengthening and I'd like to repeat this, the operating models and executional rigor in general and certainly around everything cash flow. So with that, over to David to walk us through the financials. David?

    在動態的全球環境中,可見性仍然不是很好,但我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我喜歡我們現在開始新的一年的方式。儘管宏觀環境可能更具挑戰性,但我們第四季的業績為 2023 年的成功奠定了良好的基礎。我想重複一遍,我們正在加強營運模式和整體執行嚴謹性,當然還包括所有現金流。因此,請 David 向我們介紹一下財務狀況。戴維?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Perfect. Thanks, Gio. First, turning to Slide 6. This slide summarizes our fourth quarter financial results. Although fourth quarter results were lower than our expectations, looking at this slide holistically, you can appreciate the marked improvement from a year ago. As both Dave and Gio mentioned, there is still work to do, but fourth quarter adjusted operating profit of $211 million, was not only a record high, but a record high by about 40%.

    完美的。謝謝,吉奧。首先,翻到投影片 6。雖然第四季的業績低於我們的預期,但從整體來看,我們可以看出與一年前相比有了明顯的改善。正如 Dave 和 Gio 所提到的,還有很多工作要做,但第四季度調整後的營業利潤為 2.11 億美元,不僅創下了歷史新高,而且比歷史新高高出了約 40%。

  • Going forward, it's our aim for every quarter to be a record quarter. And we are certainly better positioned today to deliver those types of results in large part due to what we have gone through over the last 18 months or so. With that said, let's look at the fourth quarter detail. Net sales increased 17% from last year's fourth quarter and were up 22% organically. This organic growth included 12% from volume and 10% from pricing while still comfortably within our guidance range for sales versus expectations, sales were negatively impacted by approximately $40 million from the COVID wave in China which significantly limited our production in the final 2 months of the year.

    展望未來,我們的目標是每季都創下紀錄。而且,我們今天肯定更有能力實現這些成果,這很大程度上要歸功於我們在過去 18 個月左右所經歷的一切。話雖如此,讓我們來看看第四季的細節。淨銷售額較去年第四季成長 17%,有機成長 22%。這一有機成長包括 12% 的銷售成長和 10% 的定價成長,同時仍在我們的銷售與預期指導範圍內,但中國新冠疫情為銷售額帶來了約 4,000 萬美元的負面影響,這嚴重限制了我們今年最後兩個月的生產。

  • Lower sales in China were partially offset by a $30 million foreign exchange tailwind versus beginning of quarter expectations as the Euro, RMB and British pound all strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Adjusted operating profit of $211 million was below our guidance range and this was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated volume in China, which should just be timing and weaker-than-expected results from E&I. Looking at the macro puts and takes, we realized a $135 million pricing benefit in the quarter, which was consistent with our beginning of quarter guidance. And pricing was partially offset by a $55 million headwind from material and freight inflation once again also consistent with our guidance.

    由於歐元、人民幣和英鎊兌美元均走強,與季度初的預期相比,中國銷售額的下降被 3,000 萬美元的外匯順風部分抵消。調整後的營業利潤為 2.11 億美元,低於我們的指導範圍,這主要是由於中國市場的銷量低於預期(這應該只是時機問題)以及 E&I 的業績低於預期。從宏觀看,我們在本季實現了 1.35 億美元的定價收益,這與我們季度初的指引一致。而且定價被材料和運費通膨帶來的 5,500 萬美元逆風部分抵消,這也再次與我們的預期一致。

  • As a result, we were $80 million price cost positive in the fourth quarter and $60 million positive for the full year. $165 million higher sales volume contributed $50 million higher adjusted operating profit, and foreign exchange, although favorable versus expectation was still a $15 million headwind versus prior year. Fourth quarter E&I performance was below our expectations, and this was driven by cost overruns on several large projects and unfavorable mix.

    結果,我們第四季的價格成本盈餘為 8,000 萬美元,全年的價格成本盈餘為 6,000 萬美元。 1.65 億美元的成長銷售額貢獻了 5,000 萬美元的增加調整後營業利潤,而外匯雖然優於預期,但與去年相比仍造成 1,500 萬美元的逆風。第四季的 E&I 業績低於我們的預期,這是由於幾個大型專案的成本超支和不利的組合造成的。

  • The project cost overruns were driven by execution challenges and a lack of visibility on costs, largely focused within a single manufacturing plant and both issues are very much fixable and are being addressed as we continue to integrate E&I in the Vertiv processes and systems. While certainly a challenging quarter and quite frankly, a challenging year for E&I, we are still extremely excited about this acquisition. There is likely more tactical work to be done than we originally anticipated. But as we mentioned previously, on the last call, the potential for sales synergies is much higher than we originally modeled as evidenced by the near 150% E&I backlog growth during 2022.

    專案成本超支是由於執行方面的挑戰以及缺乏成本可見性,主要集中在單一製造廠內,這兩個問題都是很容易解決的,隨著我們繼續將 E&I 整合到 Vertiv 流程和系統中,這些問題正在解決。雖然對 E&I 來說這無疑是一個充滿挑戰的季度,坦白說也是充滿挑戰的一年,但我們仍然對這項收購感到非常興奮。要做的戰術工作可能比我們最初預期的要多。但正如我們之前在上次電話會議上提到的那樣,銷售協同效應的潛力遠高於我們最初的模型,2022 年 E&I 積壓訂單增長近 150% 就是明證。

  • To support this higher volume, we are actively investing in capacity expansions at existing Vertiv facilities in Mexico and Slovakia as we continue to push E&I products through legacy vert of sales channels. And finally, on this slide, we generated $143 million of adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter, and that was $135 million higher than last year's fourth quarter. Although a strong year-over-year comparison, adjusted free cash flow was significantly below our guidance range driven by several factors, including delayed collections in China from the impact of COVID, higher-than-expected inventory as we continue to manage supply chain constraints, while managing a record high volume and also delayed receipt of advanced payments for several large orders, which were pushed into and likely spread throughout 2023.

    為了支持這一更高的銷量,我們正在積極投資擴大位於墨西哥和斯洛伐克的現有 Vertiv 工廠的產能,同時我們將繼續透過傳統的垂直銷售管道推廣 E&I 產品。最後,在這張投影片上,我們在第四季產生了 1.43 億美元的調整後自由現金流,比去年第四季高出 1.35 億美元。儘管與去年同期相比表現強勁,但調整後的自由現金流大幅低於我們的預期範圍,這受到多種因素的影響,包括受新冠疫情影響導致中國收款延遲、由於我們繼續管理供應鏈限制導致庫存高於預期,同時管理創紀錄的高銷量,以及幾筆大訂單的預付款延遲收到,這些訂單被推遲到 2023 年,並可能持續到 2023 年。

  • Although fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was short of expectations, we continue to make progress in stemming the tide. We burned $380 million of adjusted free cash flow in the first half of the year while we generated $150 million in the second half, we certainly were not alone in managing the challenges of inventory in 2022. But unsurprisingly, we saw a similar pattern with inventory, which grew $180 million in the first half, but just $30 million in the second half. There is still much work to do. But as Dave and Gio both mentioned, optimizing working capital will be a significant focus for 2023 for Gio, for myself and quite frankly, the entire company.

    儘管第四季度調整後的自由現金流低於預期,但我們在扭轉這種趨勢方面繼續取得進展。我們上半年消耗了 3.8 億美元的調整後自由現金流,而下半年卻創造了 1.5 億美元,在 2022 年管理庫存挑戰方面,我們當然不是唯一一家。還有很多工作要做。但正如戴夫和吉奧都提到的那樣,優化營運資本將是吉奧、我自己,坦白說,整個公司在 2023 年的一個重要關注點。

  • We believe we strengthened the P&L in 2022. And now we will work diligently to strengthen the balance sheet. Next, turning to Slide 7. This slide summarizes our fourth quarter segment -- fourth quarter segment results with strong organic sales growth in each of the Americas and EMEA. APAC organic sales were relatively flat, primarily due to COVID. Otherwise, organic sales would have been up about 9%. Americas 40% organic growth. You need to say that again, organic growth was supported by 26% volume growth and 14% pricing.

    我們相信我們在 2022 年加強了損益表。接下來,翻到投影片 7。亞太地區的有機銷售額相對平穩,主要原因是新冠疫情。否則,有機銷售額將成長約 9%。美洲有機成長40%。你需要再說一遍,有機成長是由 26% 的銷售成長和 14% 的定價所支撐的。

  • And each of these is an impressive number in and of its own. The volume growth was supported by launching additional thermal capacity in Monterrey, while also proactively addressing several supply chain issues, including the qualification of new suppliers. From an adjusted operating margin perspective, all regions were up significantly from last year's fourth quarter. And for the first time, all regions were price/cost positive. Americas improvement was the most pronounced as they were the first region last year to be hit by inflation against an underpriced backlog.

    每一個數字本身都是令人印象深刻的。產量成長得益於蒙特雷新增熱電產能的投入,同時也積極解決了包括新供應商資格認證在內的多個供應鏈問題。從調整後的營業利益率來看,所有地區均較去年第四季大幅成長。且首次所有地區的價格/成本均呈正成長。美洲的改善最為明顯,因為美洲是去年第一個因定價過低而受到通貨膨脹衝擊的地區。

  • They were approximately $60 million price/cost positive in the quarter which demonstrates the significance of the aggressive pricing program put in place at the start of the year. Both the Americas and EMEA adjusted operating margin were above 20% for the quarter, but APAC was not that far behind. Next, turning to Slide 8. We added this slide to highlight the turnaround specifically in the Americas region in 2022. Under Gio's leadership, we saw significant sequential quarterly improvement as that business focused on getting the fundamentals right, improving processes, while also holding people accountable by emphasizing a high-performance culture.

    本季的價格/成本比約為 6,000 萬美元,這表明了年初實施的積極定價計劃的重要性。本季美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的調整後營業利潤率均超過 20%,但亞太地區的差距也不大。接下來,轉到投影片 8。

  • It's still early innings and still work to do, but we are pleased yet not satisfied with the progress to date. Gio borrowed best practices from EMEA and institutionalize those in the Americas. And as this slide demonstrates, we are certainly seeing the results. Of course, and as a reminder, the Americas region, adjusted operating margin just a couple of years ago was in the mid-20s. So there is still certainly room for significant upside in the Americas and, quite frankly, in all regions in 2023 and beyond.

    現在還處於早期階段,還有很多工作要做,但我們對迄今為止的進展感到高興但並不滿意。 Gio 借鑒了歐洲、中東和非洲地區的最佳實踐,並將其製度化於美洲。正如這張投影片所展示的,我們確實看到了結果。當然,需要提醒的是,幾年前美洲地區的調整後營業利潤率還只有 25% 左右。因此,到 2023 年及以後,美洲地區乃至所有地區仍有大幅上漲的空間。

  • Next, turning to Slide 9. This slide summarizes our full year results. We developed an aggressive framework to transform the business at the beginning of the year, and we made significant progress. And we'll touch upon that in the next slide. But it really was a story of two halves with each financial metric. Sales were up organically 4% in the first half, but over 20% in the second half. Adjusted operating profit was up -- or was $95 million in the first half, but $345 million in the second half. Adjusted operating margin was 3.7% first half 11% second half. Adjusted free cash flow was a burn of $380 million in the first half, but a generation of $120 million in the second half.

    接下來,翻到投影片 9。我們在年初制定了積極的業務轉型框架,並取得了重大進展。我們將在下一張投影片中討論這個問題。但事實上,每個財務指標都包含兩個面向的故事。上半年銷售額有機成長 4%,但下半年成長超過 20%。調整後的營業利潤有所上升——上半年為 9,500 萬美元,但下半年為 3.45 億美元。調整後營業利益率上半年為 3.7%,下半年為 11%。調整後的自由現金流在上半年消耗了 3.8 億美元,但下半年卻產生了 1.2 億美元。

  • So although full year results are critically important, the underlying dynamics of the cadence of our improvements through the year are likely more pertinent to understand the Vertiv turnaround story which we capture on the next slide, Slide 10.

    因此,儘管全年業績至關重要,但我們全年改進節奏的潛在動態可能更有助於理解 Vertiv 扭虧為盈的故事,我們將在下一張投影片(第 10 張)中介紹這一點。

  • And this slide nicely captures the turnaround executed in 2022. While there were puts and takes along the way, we execute it relatively consistent with the profile we presented in February and delivered sequentially improving performance each quarter improving adjusted operating profit by almost $200 million from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. And of course, our fourth quarter performance is not an end in and of itself, but it serves as a strong foundation for continued improving results in 2023 and well beyond which serves as a good segue, so moving from the rearview mirror to the road ahead, let's turn to Slide 12, which summarizes our full year 2023 guidance.

    這張投影片很好地反映了 2022 年實現的扭轉局面。當然,我們第四季度的業績本身並不是終點,但它為 2023 年及以後持續改善業績奠定了堅實的基礎,並提供了一個良好的過渡,因此,從後視鏡轉向未來的道路,讓我們轉到幻燈片 12,它總結了我們 2023 年全年的指導意見。

  • We anticipate 2023 sales increasing 15% at the midpoint with approximately 10% from volume and 5% from pricing, of which a significant portion is carryover or based upon enacted price increases. Markets currently remain healthy, and we have a record backlog of $4.8 billion coming into the year. Despite the recent strengthening of the euro, RMB and British pound against the U.S. dollar, we do anticipate a full year foreign exchange headwind of approximately $40 million, and that includes a $70 million headwind in the first half partially offset by a $30 million tailwind in the back half.

    我們預計 2023 年的銷售額將以中位數成長 15%,其中約 10% 來自銷量,5% 來自定價,其中很大一部分是結轉或基於已實施的價格上漲。目前市場依然健康,今年我們的訂單積壓量達到了創紀錄的 48 億美元。儘管近期歐元、人民幣和英鎊兌美元走強,但我們預計全年外匯逆風約為 4,000 萬美元,其中上半年 7,000 萬美元的逆風將部分被下半年 3,000 萬美元的順風所抵消。

  • We have raised our 2023 adjusted operating profit guidance range to $750 million to $800 million and that's up from the $730 million to $750 million range previously. And this change is primarily due to the strengthening of foreign currency from the end of October when we provided that previous guidance. The midpoint of our revised guidance range represents an over 75% increase year-over-year which is certainly significant. And we include a bridge on Slide 31 in the appendix that summarizes the drivers of this increase. And Gio will touch upon some of the dynamics in a couple of pages. But big picture, it is driven by higher sales, supported by our record backlog and additional pricing, much of which is carryover.

    我們已將 2023 年調整後營業利潤預期範圍上調至 7.5 億美元至 8 億美元,高於先前的 7.3 億美元至 7.5 億美元。這項變更主要是由於自 10 月底我們提供先前指引以來外幣走強所致。我們修訂後的指導範圍的中點同比增長超過 75%,這無疑是意義重大的。我們在附錄第 31 張投影片中附上了一篇橋樑文章,總結了這個成長的驅動因素。吉奧將在後面幾頁中談到其中的一些動態。但從總體來看,這是由更高的銷售額推動的,並受到我們創紀錄的積壓訂單和額外定價的支持,其中大部分是結轉。

  • These tailwinds are offset by an assumed $175 million of inflation. And this includes labor. About $75 million of labor inflation is included in that $175 million. And also a $40 million combined investment in R&D and additional capacity to support higher expected sales in 2023 and beyond. Adjusted EPS of $1.22 represents a 2x increase from 2022, and that's mainly driven by the improved adjusted operating profit. Adjusted free cash flow guidance of $300 million to $400 million is primarily driven by higher adjusted operating profit and optimized working capital, which, as we mentioned, will be a significant focus going forward.

    這些順風因素被假定的 1.75 億美元的通貨膨脹所抵消。其中包括勞動力。這 1.75 億美元中包含了約 7,500 萬美元的勞動力通膨因素。此外,還對研發和額外產能進行了總計 4,000 萬美元的投資,以支持 2023 年及以後更高的預期銷售額。調整後的每股收益為 1.22 美元,較 2022 年增長 2 倍,這主要得益於調整後的營業利潤的提高。調整後的自由現金流預期為 3 億至 4 億美元,主要得益於更高的調整後營業利潤和優化的營運資本,正如我們所提到的,這將是未來的重點。

  • Gio will provide some of the additional color on working capital initiatives in a couple of slides. And please refer to Slides 31 and 33 in the appendix for additional detail on core assumptions supporting our '23 guidance. Next, Slide 13. This includes a summary of our first quarter financial guidance. And our first quarter certainly showed significant year-over-year improvement across all financial measures. Although we realize it's against a relatively easy comparison to a weak prior year first quarter. That said, our first quarter guidance continues the trajectory of improvement building off a strong fourth quarter.

    Gio 將在幾張投影片中對營運資本計畫進行進一步的介紹。有關支持我們'23 指導的核心假設的更多詳細信息,請參閱附錄中的幻燈片 31 和 33。接下來是第 13 張投影片。我們第一季的所有財務指標都較上年同期有顯著改善。儘管我們意識到,與去年同期疲軟的第一季相比,這一數字相對容易比較。儘管如此,我們的第一季指引延續了第四季強勁成長的軌跡。

  • However, as a reminder, seasonality in our business generally results in our first quarter being the lowest quarter and our fourth quarter being the highest. So in general, like 2022, sequentially improving quarterly financial performance across each of these financial measures in 2023 is the expectation. First quarter net sales are expected to be up 21%, 25% organically, driven by higher volume and pricing benefits, partially offset by a foreign exchange headwind. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be $125 million at the midpoint with pricing, volume and productivity offset by inflation and growth investments.

    不過,提醒一下,我們業務的季節性通常導致第一季的業績最低,而第四季的業績最高。因此,整體而言,與 2022 年一樣,預計 2023 年各項財務指標的季度財務表現都會逐步改善。預計第一季淨銷售額將成長 21%,其中有機成長 25%,這主要得益於銷售增加和定價優勢,但部分抵消了外匯逆風的影響。調整後的營業利潤預計中間值為 1.25 億美元,其中定價、銷售和生產力受通貨膨脹和成長投資的影響。

  • Adjusted EPS improvement is coming primarily from higher adjusted operating profit. Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to be a use of cash of between $50 million and $100 million. Approximately $75 million better than last year's first quarter despite year-over-year headwinds of $20 million from cash interest due to higher interest rates and simply from the timing of payroll. Like many industrials, our first quarter typically drives the use of cash, and we anticipate generating adjusted free cash flow for each of the remaining quarters in 2023. With that said, I turn it back over to Gio.

    調整後每股盈餘的改善主要源自於調整後營業利益的提高。調整後的自由現金流預計在 5,000 萬至 1 億美元之間。儘管由於利率上升以及工資發放時間原因,現金利息年減 2,000 萬美元,但仍比去年第一季好出約 7,500 萬美元。與許多工業企業一樣,我們的第一季通常會推動現金的使用,我們預計在 2023 年剩餘的每個季度都會產生調整後的自由現金流。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Well, thank you, David. Thank you very much, and we turn to Slide 14. We know that this guidance may look aggressive to some. It may as well look conservative to others. But I want you to share some points that supports our assumptions about our guidance. I'll start with adjusted operating profit. And let's look at the volume assumptions. We are at the highest backlog coverage point in our history over 30%. Additionally, there is always a lot more book and ship time and materials, services, spare parts, flow business. Parts of the business that transact on a very short cycle and provide additional volume on the year. Our Q4 book-to-bill ratio was 115% and high levels that have characterized the entire 2022. Obviously, some moderation in our book-to-bill ratio is expected going into 2023 as customers return to a more normalized, as I said, order pattern.

    好吧,謝謝你,大衛。非常感謝,我們轉到第 14 張投影片。在其他人看來,這也許顯得保守。但我希望您分享一些支持我們關於指導的假設的觀點。我先從調整後的營業利潤開始。讓我們來看看體積假設。我們的積壓訂單覆蓋率達到了歷史最高水平,超過 30%。此外,總是有更多的預訂和運輸時間以及材料、服務、備件和流動業務。部分業務的交易週期很短,並在一年內提供額外的交易量。我們第四季的訂單出貨比為 115%,這一高水準是整個 2022 年的特徵。

  • This supply environment has been improving, and this should lead to a decrease in our need to do spot buys. We believe we have conservative estimates for inflation. We have a pricing plan that is largely already in backlog or based on actions that have already been taken and we have demonstrated our ability to get price. Let's look at the cash flow now. You have heard all of us speak directly about adjusted free cash flow. We know we did not execute well in this metric in 2022. Certainly, the improved adjusted operating profit starts off at a very different point for 2023. We have reasonable assumptions for elements that typically do not vary too much like interest back CapEx and we have strong working capital initiatives.

    這種供應環境一直在改善,這將導致我們對現貨購買的需求減少。我們認為,我們對通貨膨脹的估計是保守的。我們的定價計劃基本上已經積壓或基於已經採取的行動,並且我們已經證明了我們獲得價格的能力。現在我們來看看現金流。大家已經聽到我們直接談論調整後的自由現金流。我們知道,2022 年我們在這個指標上表現不佳。

  • This is a top priority for the organization, and we are managing this very closely. I would reference how we approached price last year. It was all hands on deck, rigor around the process accountability and focus on execution. And we executed well. The same rigor is around executing the working capital initiatives and the adjusted free cash flow generation. Let's now turn to Slide 15. Our focus areas for 2023 are clear, clear reflection of our priorities.

    這是該組織的首要任務,我們正在密切管理此事。我將參考去年我們是如何制定價格的。全體人員齊心協力,嚴格流程責任制,注重執行。我們執行得很好。執行營運資本計畫和調整後的自由現金流產生也同樣嚴格。現在讓我們翻到第 15 張投影片。

  • We won the entire team pulling in the same direction. We are working on the culture fostering a high-performance culture where we do what we say, where ownership is clear where we hold ourselves accountable for delivering the results and we reward performance. Culture doesn't change overnight. It is a process. But as we strengthen our focus, we have seen signs that the high-performance culture is starting to take hold and we see that through improved financial results. I've been visiting many parts of the organization lately, including China, India, Mexico, Slovakia, Ireland, the Middle East. I have met many people at all levels. And I'm very encouraged by what I see. People who love and care for what they do and care for the company. We have a lot to do, but I feel the energy of the organization. Again, pricing, supply chain resiliency and trade working capital optimization are primary focus areas, and we will continue to build those muscles, continue to institutionalize this in the organization.

    我們贏得了整個團隊朝著同一個方向努力的勝利。我們致力於培養高績效文化,在這種文化中,我們說到做到、責任明確、對成果負責、獎勵績效。文化不會在一夜之間改變。這是一個過程。但隨著我們加強關注,我們已經看到高績效文化開始紮根的跡象,我們透過改善財務表現看到了這一點。我最近造訪了該組織的許多地方,包括中國、印度、墨西哥、斯洛伐克、愛爾蘭、中東。我見過許多各個層次的人。我所看到的一切令我深受鼓舞。熱愛並關心自己的工作以及關心公司的人。我們有很多事情要做,但我感受到了組織的活力。再次強調,定價、供應鏈彈性和貿易營運資本優化是主要關注領域,我們將繼續增強這些力量,並繼續在組織內使其製度化。

  • This is what high-performing companies do. We still have great potential to operate in a more efficient and effective way across the company. There is no magic wand. It's constant focus on the things that matter and strong operational execution, rigorous, relentless, pragmatic execution at all levels and starting from the top. I am encouraged by finish to 2022. The year was certainly not profit but are signs of real progress permeating throughout the organization and most importantly, showing up in our financial results.

    這就是高績效公司所做的事情。我們公司仍然有很大的潛力可以以更有效率、更有效的方式運作。沒有什麼魔杖。它持續專注於重要的事情和強大的營運執行力,從最高層開始在各個層面嚴謹、堅持、務實的執行。我對 2022 年的成績感到鼓舞。

  • Dave started off the call today by indicating 2022 was a year of transformation assertive. I wholeheartedly agree, and it is just the beginning. With that said, we will now turn the call over to the operator, who will open the line for questions.

    戴夫今天在電話會議中首先指出,2022 年是積極轉型的一年。我完全同意,這只是一個開始。說完這些,我們現在將電話轉給接線員,接線員將開通熱線來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question we have from the phone line comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

    (操作員指示)我們從電話線收到的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • I really just have one main question, and it's just related to the order cancellation of the hyperscale customer. Could you give us a little bit more color around that? And is it your experience that these things tend to be one-offs. I mean I would think that if one customer is canceling it could be kind of a start of a trend, if you will, I'm not trying to be paranoid here, just. A little bit color there, I think, would be helpful.

    我確實只有一個主要問題,它與超大規模客戶的訂單取消有關。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這一點?根據您的經驗,這些事情往往都是一次性的嗎?我的意思是,我認為如果一個客戶取消了訂單,這可能是一種趨勢的開始,如果你願意的話,我並不是想在這裡表現出偏執,只是。我認為,如果稍微有點色彩的話,可能會有幫助。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Scott, we know that paranoia is always very healthy. We try to exercise paranoia in everything, and everything we do when it comes to running the business almost religiously. This is Gio. But obviously, we're not able to share customer-specific information. But I would say it is not unusual sometimes that there are some reconfigurations in terms of what customers decide to do with their infrastructure. Having said that, of course, being paranoid, we keep an extremely sharp eye on our orders dynamics. Other now what we have signals -- we signaled, we have noticed -- we have not noticed anything extraordinary, let's say, in the dynamics. So we will continue to be -- to exercise extreme focus there, but nothing extraordinary.

    史考特,我們知道偏執總是對健康有益的。我們試圖對每件事、以及我們所做的每件事都保持謹慎,幾乎是虔誠地經營業務。這是吉奧。但顯然,我們不能分享客戶的具體資訊。但我想說,有時客戶在決定如何利用其基礎設施方面進行一些重新配置並不罕見。話雖如此,當然,由於我們心存疑慮,所以我們會極其密切地關注訂單動態。除了我們現在有的信號——我們發出的信號,我們已經注意到的——我們沒有註意到任何異常,比如說,在動態中。因此,我們將繼續高度關注這一領域,但不會採取特別措施。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • Okay. And just as a natural follow-up, I mean you've had a quarter now of kind of order normalization. Historically, does that typically last 2 to 3 quarters? Or is it something that is a little quicker than that?

    好的。作為自然的後續行動,我的意思是,現在你已經有一個季度的訂單正常化了。從歷史上看,這通常會持續 2 到 3 個季度嗎?或是有比這更快一點的事情?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • It is -- it's hard to refer to history here because I do not think that I've been in the industry, as you know, for quite some time. I have never seen anything like what has happened in the industry in the last 1.5 years, 2 years. The magnitude of the combination of lengthening lead times and demand growth has driven a let's say, desire to cover longer and longer demand periods of our customers. That is absolutely unprecedented. All in general, not just Vertex customers in the industry in general. So being able to say how that will undo or normalize, it's very, very hard.

    是的——在這裡很難提及歷史,因為正如你所知,我認為我在這個行業已經很長時間了。我從未見過過去 1.5 年或 2 年裡該行業發生過這樣的事情。交貨時間的延長和需求的成長雙重推動了我們希望滿足客戶越來越長的需求期。這絕對是史無前例的。總體而言,不僅僅是整個行業中的 Vertex 客戶。因此,要說出如何消除或正常化這種情況是非常非常困難的。

  • But our expectation is that it will probably take 6 months. But hey, this is a guess. We'll keep our eyes open and try to understand how it exactly unfolds. And I'll probably be able to tell better in it.

    但我們預計可能需要 6 個月。但嘿,這只是猜測。我們將密切關注並試圖了解事情究竟如何發展。我或許能夠更好地講述它。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • That's very helpful. Okay. Best of luck this year. I'll pass it on.

    這非常有幫助。好的。祝今年好運。我會傳達的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just David, going back to the raise guide for '23. You mentioned FX which makes total sense, of course, with the dollar movements. But then you mentioned E&I as a timing issue, the larger timing issue. Are you assuming that sort of the lost EBIT at E&I comes through into '23. Any help in terms of the path of recovery there would be helpful.

    只是大衛,回到'23 年的加薪指南。您提到外匯,當然,考慮到美元的走勢,這是完全合理的。但您隨後提到 E&I 是一個時間問題,更大的時間問題。您是否認為 E&I 的息稅前利潤損失將會延續到 23 年?任何有關恢復道路的幫助都會有幫助。

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. I wouldn't necessarily call the E&I issue from the fourth quarter, a timing issue. We were referring more to the sales timing for China related to COVID. All those sales were based on orders that we have in hand and no guarantee we'll make that up in Q1, but that's certainly just a timing. As it relates to E&I, there, we certainly expect improvement in 2023 versus what we saw in 2022. I think full year adjusted operating profit for E&I was between $50 million and $55 million. We anticipated $80 million at the beginning of this year, and we certainly would anticipate something north of $80 million for full year 2023.

    是的。我不會將第四季度的 E&I 問題稱為時間問題。我們更指的是與 COVID 相關的中國銷售時機。所有這些銷售都是基於我們手頭上的訂單,不能保證我們能在第一季彌補這一差距,但這肯定只是一個時間安排。就 E&I 而言,我們當然預計 2023 年的情況會比 2022 年有所改善。我們預計今年年初的收入為 8,000 萬美元,我們當然預計 2023 年全年的收入將超過 8,000 萬美元。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And then I think if you look at your 1Q sales guide, I think 21%, 22% of your midpoint sales coming through in 1Q as a portion of the full year. That's actually the highest proportion we've seen since Vertiv as a public company going back to 2018. So obviously, we like front-end loaded guidances, but does that indicate sort of inherent in it in the way you built up the plan? Or does it indicate some of the expectation of the slowing in the back half of the year relative to norms?

    好的。那太棒了。然後我認為,如果你看一下第一季的銷售指南,我認為第一季的銷售額佔全年銷售額的 21% 到 22%。這實際上是自 2018 年 Vertiv 上市以來我們看到的最高比例。 所以很明顯,我們喜歡前端加載的指導,但這是否表明您制定計劃的方式中存在某種固有性?或者這是否顯示了相對於常態而言下半年經濟放緩的一些預期?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. That's a good question. I would say -- if you look at the risk from a sales perspective in our plan for 2023 and very consistent with what we said at the end of the third quarter. It's not going to necessarily be backlog, but it will be related to the availability of supply. And in particular, we have continuing challenges with power semiconductors and electronic components.

    是的。這是個好問題。我想說的是——如果你從銷售角度來看我們 2023 年計畫中的風險,這與我們在第三季末所說的非常一致。這不一定是積壓,而是與供應的可用性有關。特別是,我們在功率半導體和電子元件方面面臨持續的挑戰。

  • So there may be a bit of a hedge in the back half of the year because we don't have great visibility in that market, similar to everybody who is trying to get their hands on those power semiconductors. In addition, there is still a healthy amount of book and ship that is out there for the back half of the year, and we'll have better visibility into that at the end of the first quarter and probably much better at the end of the first half.

    因此,今年下半年可能會有一些對沖,因為我們對這個市場的了解不多,就像所有試圖獲得這些功率半導體的人一樣。此外,今年下半年仍有大量的訂單和出貨量,我們將在第一季末對此有更清晰的了解,而在上半年末則可能會有更好的了解。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So just to be clear, you still expect there to be supply constraints in the back half of the year?

    所以要先明確的是,您仍預計今年下半年會出現供應緊張的情況嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Specifically as it relates to electronic components and Gio can speak to the supply environment. But one of our objectives on this call is to make it clear that we're not through the supply chain issues, right? And I would say many components we purchase are much better than they were 3 months ago, 6 months ago. But there are certainly still challenges on very critical components that we have to procure across our entire product line, whether that's AC power or thermal.

    具體來說,由於它與電子元件有關,Gio 可以談談供應環境。但我們這次通話的目標之一是明確表示,我們還沒有解決供應鏈問題,對嗎?我想說,我們購買的許多零件比三個月前、六個月前好得多。但我們整個產品線採購的關鍵零件(無論是交流電源還是熱電源)肯定仍然存在挑戰。

  • One, in particular, is the power semiconductors. And there's long lead times there, and we don't have great visibility. We do anticipate that improving as we go through the year. But our visibility there probably is a matter of quarters, not a matter of -- looking out what a year is going to potentially look like?

    其中特別要提到的是功率半導體。而且那裡的準備時間很長,而且我們的可見度也不太高。我們確實預計,隨著時間的推移,這種情況會有所改善。但是我們的可見性可能只是季度的問題,而不是一年內可能出現的情況?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Yes, I can comment further. Thank you, David, Nigel. So we have on the supply side of things to aspects at the same time in parallel. One is us getting, of course, stronger, more robust. As we explained, we have strengthened our SIOP Processes. We have made our supply network and supply base more resilient with multi-sourced components and also supplies. But at the same time, the market, albeit improving is certainly not normalizing that is at the same time on the supply side, especially as Dave was saying, everything that has to do with the power semiconductors.

    是的,我可以進一步評論。謝謝你,大衛,奈傑爾。因此,我們在供應方面同時採取了多項措施。一是當然是我們變得更強大、更穩健。正如我們所解釋的,我們已經加強了我們的 SIOP 流程。我們透過多來源組件和供應使我們的供應網絡和供應基地更具彈性。但同時,市場雖然有所改善,但肯定還沒有正常化,同時在供應方面,特別是正如戴夫所說的,一切都與功率半導體有關。

  • But the power semiconductors are present in this lot of things -- a lot of the components we use. They're not just as such, but components in the components we purchase. So we believe we are stronger. We believe we have figured a lot of things out during the course of 2022. But by all means, the message is not that everything is perfect out there. And it's still a complicated market, but we're much better equipped to navigate in that market.

    但是功率半導體存在於許多東西中——我們使用的許多組件中。它們不僅僅是如此,而且是我們購買的組件中的組件。因此我們相信我們會更強大。我們相信,我們在 2022 年已經解決了很多問題。這仍然是一個複雜的市場,但我們已做好更好的準備去開拓這個市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Can you talk about maybe some of the levers on cash into '24 and kind of where normalized free cash would land for you guys in the next couple of years? Or not normalized, but where you think you can get to on that number beyond this year?

    您能否談談 24 年現金的一些槓桿,以及未來幾年正常化的自由現金將流向何處?或者尚未實現正常化,但您認為今年以後可以達到這個數字嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. This is David. So if you look at our guide, for '23. And we break down the components, I think, Page 33 in the appendix. So you can see how it kind of built up the most important, certainly, you got to start with adjusted EBITDA. And that certainly there'd be an expectation for that debt to flow through if that's higher or lower than what we're targeting. Putting working capital aside, the other three components, as Gio mentioned, there's some probability of variability there, but I wouldn't say significant.

    是的。這是大衛。因此,如果你看一下我們的『23 年指南。我認為,我們將各個組件分解到了附錄第 33 頁。因此,您可以看到它是如何建立起最重要的部分的,當然,您必須從調整後的 EBITDA 開始。如果該數字高於或低於我們的目標,那麼肯定會有債務流入的預期。除了營運資金之外,正如吉奧所提到的,其他三個組成部分也存在著一定的變化可能性,但我認為變化幅度並不大。

  • Certainly, if we're more profitable, we'll pay more taxes. That's just kind of how it works. But fairly certain that we would -- our CapEx number will come in within a range of what's reasonable with what we guided. And then interest, we're definitely subject to movement in interest rates. But if we have significant upside or slight downside, it more than likely isn't going to be related to those three components. It's going to be the working capital component. And if you look at the $75 million use for full year 2023, we certainly assume success in some of the working capital initiatives that Gio mentioned.

    當然,如果我們的利潤更高,我們就會繳更多的稅。這正是它的工作原理。但我們可以肯定的是,我們的資本支出數字將處於我們預期的合理範圍內。然後是利息,我們肯定會受到利率變動的影響。但如果我們有明顯的上漲空間或輕微的下跌空間,那麼很可能與這三個因素無關。它將成為營運資本的一部分。如果您看看 2023 年全年 7500 萬美元的使用情況,我們肯定會認為 Gio 提到的一些營運資金計劃會成功。

  • Working capital in and of itself will be a headwind due to the 15% organic growth, right? That's just how it works. But with that said, it's not hundreds of millions of dollars. It's not a $300 million or $400 million headwind, and we're expecting very significant or including in our guidance, very significant working capital initiative benefits. So that headwind could be $1 million or $200 million, you can do the math. And that's based on what we think sales are going to be in the fourth quarter of '23 versus the fourth quarter of 2022. So we have some provision in these numbers for success with optimizing working capital, but it could end up being a conservative assumption.

    由於 15% 的有機成長,營運資本本身將成為一個阻力,對嗎?事情就是這樣的。但話雖如此,這也不算是幾億美元。這不是一個 3 億美元或 4 億美元的逆風,我們預計這將帶來非常重大的營運資本計劃效益,或在我們的指導範圍內包括非常重大的營運資本計劃效益。因此,這個逆風可能是 100 萬美元或 2 億美元,你可以算一下。這是基於我們對 2023 年第四季與 2022 年第四季銷售額的預測。

  • There's still a lot of complications. The supply chain is not back to stable. So there's a lot of challenges in front of us, but we're confident with this guidance we have provided. But if you look at the $350 million versus, if you will, an adjusted net income for the full year, it's probably 75%, 80%. We would target in the long run, being in the 90%-plus range. It's always hard for an industrial company to get to 100% of free cash flow conversion if the expectation is to grow 10% to 15% a year.

    仍存在許多複雜情況。供應鏈尚未恢復穩定。因此,我們面臨著許多挑戰,但我們對我們提供的指導充滿信心。但如果你把這 3.5 億美元與全年調整後的淨收入進行比較,你會發現這一比例大概是 75% 到 80%。我們的長期目標是達到 90% 以上。如果預期每年的成長率為 10% 到 15%,那麼對於一家工業公司來說,要實現 100% 的自由現金流轉換總是很困難的。

  • With that said, we believe this is a reasonable guide between the $300 million and $400 million, but is definitely room for upside if we're able to execute some of our working capital initiatives quicker than what's assumed in the guidance.

    話雖如此,我們認為這是 3 億至 4 億美元之間的合理指導,但如果我們能夠比指導中假設的更快地執行一些營運資本計劃,那麼肯定還有上漲空間。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Right. So the short answer to that is 90%. You view as being normalized, 90% of that income.

    正確的。簡而言之,答案是 90%。您認為該收入的 90% 是正常化的。

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • That would be the long-term goal. Yes. 90% of adjusted net income.

    這將是長期目標。是的。調整後淨收入的90%。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Can you get there in, do you think '24?

    你認為『24』能到達那裡嗎?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • I believe we can. And it -- if you look at our issues, they're all very fixable, right? Inventory increased this year, that was probably up $250 million. It was definitely somewhat of a chaotic environment, but we have a game plan for this year.

    我相信我們能。如果你看看我們的問題,你會發現它們都是可以解決的,對吧?今年庫存增加了,可能增加了 2.5 億美元。這確實是一個有點混亂的環境,但我們今年有一個比賽計劃。

  • And that also goes for many of the components of working capital. So AR, we had some complex larger orders that we had to process in 2022 with multiple deliverables, very tactical issues that we can address. So I feel fairly confident we can get to that 90% number in '24 and go forward. But let us get through 2023 first, and then we'll provide some insight on what we think the timing would be for that number going forward.

    這也適用於營運資本的許多組成部分。因此,對於 AR,我們有一些複雜的較大訂單,必須在 2022 年處理,這些訂單包含多個可交付成果,這些都是我們可以解決的非常戰術性的問題。所以我非常有信心我們能在24年達到90%的目標並繼續前進。但讓我們先度過 2023 年,然後我們再對我們認為未來這個數字的時機提供一些見解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Wanted to just pick up where Steve left off, just thinking about the actual process of deleveraging here and if there's any leakage in the equation? I know there's always noise at year-end, but it looks to me like net debt only declined by about 1/3 of what the free cash flow was in the quarter. So there's like other uses somewhere, which I haven't figured out and that time today to try to sort that out.

    想接著史蒂夫的話題繼續思考這裡去槓桿的實際過程,以及方程式中是否有任何洩漏?我知道年底總會有一些噪音,但在我看來,淨債務僅下降了本季自由現金流的約 1/3。所以它還有其他用途,我還沒有弄清楚,今天有時間嘗試理清它。

  • But if you do $350 million of free cash flow in 2023, can we expect something in the neighborhood of deleveraging net cash -- net debt improvement kind of in that range?

    但是,如果你在 2023 年實現了 3.5 億美元的自由現金流,我們是否可以期待淨現金去槓桿——淨債務改善的程度在那個範圍內?

  • David J. Fallon - CFO

    David J. Fallon - CFO

  • Yes. So the significant use outside of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, Jeff, was related to the tax receivable agreement. There was a $75 million payment in the fourth quarter which takes that off our books completely. If you look at the leverage, if you look at the math at year-end, and you look at a trailing 12-month EBITDA number, I think our net debt leverage is about 5.6%, which certainly is much higher than we would like.

    是的。因此,傑夫,第四季度自由現金流以外的重要用途與稅收應收協議有關。第四季支付了 7500 萬美元,這筆款項已從我們的帳簿上完全劃去。如果你看一下槓桿率,如果你看一下年末的計算結果,如果你看一下過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 數字,我認為我們的淨債務槓桿率約為 5.6%,這肯定比我們希望的要高得多。

  • But if you look at that same ratio looking at a forward-looking EBITDA number, meaning the approximately $865 million of EBITDA anticipated for '23. It's about 3.5x levered. And then if you assume the $350 million of expected free cash flow is used to delever, whether sitting in cash on the balance sheet or to pay down debt. The net leverage gets down to 3x. So if we execute upon our plan in 2023 there's a relatively quick path to that deleveraging. And our long-term goal is to keep leverage between 2x and 3x that we're willing to go either below or above that range for specific reasons. But in general, if we execute what we have on paper here in '23, we should be closer to 3x levered as we exit '23.

    但如果您以相同的比率來查看前瞻性的 EBITDA 數字,則表示預計 23 年的 EBITDA 約為 8.65 億美元。其槓桿率約為 3.5 倍。然後如果你假設 3.5 億美元的預期自由現金流用於去槓桿,無論是資產負債表上的現金還是用於償還債務。淨槓桿降至3倍。因此,如果我們在 2023 年執行我們的計劃,那麼去槓桿就會相對較快。我們的長期目標是將槓桿率保持在 2 倍至 3 倍之間,出於特定原因,我們願意將槓桿率降至該範圍以下或以上。但總的來說,如果我們在 23 年執行紙面上的計劃,那麼在 23 年結束時我們的槓桿率應該會更接近 3 倍。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Great. And then just back to just kind of business conditions. Back on Slide 5, just to comment that the pricing environment remains favorable in many of our product segments sort of implies it's not favorable and others. Could you just maybe talk about the tenor of price on new incoming orders? And where there might be softness if you're implying there is some softness in that statement.

    偉大的。然後回到商業狀況。回到投影片 5,只是想評論一下,我們許多產品領域的定價環境仍然有利,但這有點暗示其他產品領域的定價環境並不有利。您能否談談新訂單的價格基調?如果您暗示該陳述中存在一些柔和之處,那麼可能就會出現柔和之處。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Well, there are two different dynamics at play. One, what I mentioned as our pricing muscle so an ability to better price for the value that we deliver. We deliver to our customers. So that's something that will always be there. and something that we did not have at least not with the efficacy that we have now in the past. So that stays I think that shouldn't read the phrase on the negative side. The message is despite an environment in which we see on the cost side in general, a moderating inflation, but inflation nonetheless, we still see that in many parts of our business, we still can continue to work the price lever. And that's what we're doing.

    嗯,有兩種不同的動態在運作。首先,我提到了我們的定價能力,即我們能夠以更優惠的價格提供我們所提供價值的能力。我們把貨物送到我們的客戶手中。所以它是永遠存在的東西。這是我們過去所沒有的,至少沒有像現在這樣有效。所以我認為不應該從消極的方面來理解這句話。訊息是,儘管我們看到總體成本方面的通膨有所緩和,但儘管如此,我們仍然看到,在我們業務的許多領域,我們仍然可以繼續利用價格槓桿。這正是我們正在做的事情。

  • When it comes to 2023, in particular, a big chunk of our price is already in backlog. And that price in our backlog of course is very important for us to deliver on our guidance. But also the price that is not yet in the backlog is a price that we see being realized with the orders that we are in taking. But expect over time a normalization also in terms of price. And when that happens, and it is not necessarily now in the market because, again, the inflationary trends are still there. When that happens, we are better equipped with an ability to price for value.

    特別是到了 2023 年,我們很大一部分的價格已經積壓了。當然,我們積壓訂單中的價格對於我們實現指導價格非常重要。但是,尚未積壓的價格是我們看到透過正在接受的訂單實現的價格。但隨著時間的推移,價格也會逐漸正常化。當這種情況發生時,它不一定現在就出現在市場上,因為通膨趨勢仍然存在。當這種情況發生時,我們就更具備根據價值進行定價的能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Lance Vitanza of Cowen.

    您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Lance Vitanza。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • I had two questions, if I could. The first is actually back on Slide 4, the market environment. And I was hoping you could drill down a little bit more on the EMEA, which -- cloud hyperscale which moved from green to yellow and Gio, could you talk a little bit more about what's driving that change? And is it linked to fears around an economic contraction? Or has that market just become somewhat saturated? And -- and then I guess, is the next move? Do we think is it more likely to be a move from yellow to red, or do we think it's more likely to move back to green?

    如果可以的話我有兩個問題。第一個實際上是回到幻燈片 4,即市場環境。我希望您能更深入地了解一下 EMEA 地區的情況,雲超大規模已從綠色變為黃色,而 Gio,您能否進一步談談推動這一變化的因素?這是否與經濟萎縮的擔憂有關?還是該市場已經有些飽和了?然後——然後我猜,下一步是什麼?我們是否認為它更有可能從黃色變成紅色,或者我們認為它更有可能變回綠色?

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Well, as I was saying, it's -- we can have a very sharp eye on all the signals in this moment in which the order dynamics are very dynamic. As we explained during the -- as we were going through the deck, we have no signals in this moment that would tell us in this moment. I would tell us that there is red looming behind the colors that you see here. But again, well, we keep our eyes wide open in case of something changes. When it comes to the EMEA, we see it more of a change of mix between cloud (inaudible) and colocation, as I mentioned, in one of our -- in my comments earlier.

    嗯,正如我所說的,我們可以非常敏銳地關注此刻的所有訊號,其中秩序動態非常動態。正如我們在翻閱甲板時所解釋的那樣,此刻我們沒有任何信號可以告訴我們。我想告訴我們,在您這裡看到的色彩背後隱藏著紅色。不過,我們還是要時時保持警惕,以防出現任何變化。當談到歐洲、中東和非洲地區時,我們看到更多的是雲端(聽不清楚)和主機託管之間的混合變化,正如我之前在評論中提到的那樣。

  • And again, simply a change of mix between what the hyperscalers and cloud providers build for their own direct infrastructure vis-a-vis what they leave and the color may flip. I would not read dramatically into that. Just saying, hey, EMEA is going through the same type of order normalization that I've signaled and mentioned already, and we'll see how that plays out.

    再說一遍,超大規模企業和雲端供應商為自己的直接基礎設施所建構的內容與他們留下的內容之間只需進行簡單的組合變化,顏色就可能發生變化。我不會對此進行過度解讀。我只是想說,嘿,歐洲、中東和非洲地區正在經歷我已經暗示和提到的相同類型的訂單正常化,我們將看看其進展如何。

  • Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

    Lance William Vitanza - MD & Cross-Capital Structure Analyst

  • Okay. And then just lastly for me. You mentioned -- actually, I think it was David who mentioned that with E&I that there might be a need for some more tactical work there. I was wondering if you could flesh that out a bit. And then with respect to the backlog, I think you said the backlog was up like 100-plus percent. And wondering if you could break that out a bit in terms of U.S. versus EMEA versus Asia Pacific.

    好的。對我來說這是最後一個了。您提到——實際上,我認為是戴維提到 E&I 可能需要在那裡進行一些更多的戰術工作。我想知道您是否可以進一步詳細說明這一點。然後關於積壓訂單,我想您說過積壓訂單增加了 100% 以上。我想知道您是否可以從美國、歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區的角度對此進行一些分析。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • So we may not have time to go into the details by region here when it comes to the backlog. But I must say that we are very, very happy about the sales leverage that we are obtaining, expanding the -- adding the E&I portfolio to the broader Vertiv go-to-market. And indeed, if you will, we've been also quite surprised by how strong the market reaction has been. So with that, as David was mentioning, we are expanding capacity.

    因此,我們可能沒有時間在這裡逐一討論積壓問題的詳細資訊。但我必須說,我們對所獲得的銷售槓桿感到非常高興,擴大了——將 E&I 產品組合添加到更廣泛的 Vertiv 市場中。事實上,如果你願意的話,我們也對市場反應的強度感到非常驚訝。因此,正如大衛所提到的,我們正在擴大產能。

  • We are expanding capacity quite vigorously specifically for E&I. The rest is about accelerating the integration, making sure that the same rigorous executional approach that we are instigating for Vertiv as a whole is applicable to E&I and continue to drive price.

    我們正在大力擴大電子和儀器 (E&I) 的產能。剩下的就是加速整合,確保我們為 Vertiv 整體推行的同樣嚴格的執行方法也適用於 E&I,並繼續推動價格上漲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Giordano Albertazzi as for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Giordano Albertazzi 來做結束語。

  • Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

    Giordano Albertazzi - CEO, President of Americas & Director

  • Well, thank you. Thanks to all of you for joining our call today. I really appreciate the support and very much looking forward to reporting out on our Q1 2023 progress. So stay tuned. And again, a big thank you.

    好吧,謝謝你。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我非常感謝大家的支持,並非常期待報告我們 2023 年第一季的進展。敬請關注。再次向您致上誠摯的謝意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you all for attending this presentation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝大家參加本次演講。您現在可以斷開連線。