Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Brika, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vertiv's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference call, Lynne Maxeiner, Vice President, Investor Relations.

早上好。我叫 Brika，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加正在錄製的 Vertiv 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。我現在想把今天的電話會議的程序交給你的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Lynne Maxeiner。

Right. Thank you, Brika. Good morning, and welcome to Vertiv's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Vertiv's Executive Chairman, Dave Cote; Chief Executive Officer, Giordano Albertazzi; and Chief Financial Officer, David Fallon. Before we begin, I would like to point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of Vertiv.

正確的。謝謝你，布里卡。早上好，歡迎來到 Vertiv 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天加入我的是 Vertiv 的執行主席 Dave Cote；首席執行官 Giordano Albertazzi；和首席財務官 David Fallon。在我們開始之前，我想指出，在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述，包括 Vertiv 未來的財務和運營業績。

These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release, and you can learn more about these risks in our annual and quarterly reports and other filings made with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date.

這些前瞻性陳述受重大風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異。我們建議您參考今天的收益發布中包含的警示性語言，您可以在我們的年度和季度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中了解有關這些風險的更多信息。我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們認為截至該日期合理的假設。

We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will also present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and in the investor slide deck found on our website at investors.vertiv.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Executive Chairman, Dave Cote.

我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。在此電話會議期間，我們還將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標，我們的 GAAP 結果和 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們網站 investors.vertiv.com 上的投資者幻燈片中找到.有了這個，我會把電話轉給執行主席戴夫科特。

Well, 2022 was quite a year of transformation at Vertiv, a year focused on driving price, Americas improvement and progress on a high-performing culture. After a very disappointing 2021, we developed an ambitious plan to turn around the performance of the business over the next 4 quarters. Fourth quarter results demonstrated marked improvement consistent with the profit profile we shared last February.

好吧，2022 年是 Vertiv 轉型的一年，這一年的重點是推動價格上漲、美國的進步和高績效文化的進步。在經歷了非常令人失望的 2021 年之後，我們制定了一項雄心勃勃的計劃，以扭轉未來 4 個季度的業務表現。第四季度業績顯著改善，與我們去年 2 月分享的利潤狀況一致。

Our adjusted free cash flow performance, however, was not what it should have been largely because of working capital. We have consistently said the fourth quarter '22 performance will position us well for '23, and we believe that it has. We are increasing our view on 2023 adjusted operating profit guidance primarily due to foreign exchange, and that represents an over 75% increase year-over-year. And our adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to improve significantly because of higher income and less working capital usage.

然而，我們調整後的自由現金流量表現並非應有的表現，這主要是因為營運資金。我們一直表示，22 年第四季度的業績將使我們在 23 年處於有利地位，我們相信它確實如此。我們增加了對 2023 年調整後營業利潤指導的看法，這主要是由於外匯影響，同比增長超過 75%。由於收入增加和營運資金使用減少，我們調整後的自由現金流預計將顯著改善。

The demand environment continues to look good, and we're entering 2023 with significant backlog. Gio's focus on improved execution on everything is already apparent, and it certainly demonstrated in the improved performance in the Americas. I'm very excited about where the company is headed with Gio's leadership. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Gio.

需求環境看起來繼續良好，我們進入 2023 年時積壓了大量訂單。 Gio 專注於改進所有方面的執行力，這一點已經很明顯了，這在美洲的改進表現中得到了肯定的體現。我對公司在 Gio 的領導下的發展方向感到非常興奮。因此，我將把電話轉給 Gio。

Thank you, Dave. Thank you very much. I can certainly confirm that already in my initial days as CEO there has been a renewed focus on executional rigor and productivity, combined with the intensity that fosters a high-performance culture. And we are on Slide 3. 2022 was certainly a story of two halves, the first half painful when we did a lot of the hard work needed for acceleration and the second half strong with indeed a very strong fourth quarter, the strongest in our history.

謝謝你，戴夫。非常感謝。我可以肯定地證實，在我擔任 CEO 的最初幾天，人們已經重新關注執行的嚴謹性和生產力，以及培養高績效文化的強度。我們在幻燈片 3 上。2022 年肯定是一個分為兩半的故事，上半場痛苦，我們做了很多加速所需的艱苦工作，下半場表現強勁，第四季度確實非常強勁，是我們歷史上最強勁的.

Fourth quarter organic sales were up 22%, driven by very robust growth in Americas and EMEA. Asia and China, in particular, was hindered by the impact of COVID, and we expect this impact to be short in nature. We extend -- we ended the year again with a record backlog of $4.8 billion, which firmly supports our top line growth projections for 2023. Adjusted operating profit of $211 million was a little short of the guidance range. This is mainly due to the approximately $40 million less volume in China. Closed by the COVID wave there. ENI performance was also weaker than expected due to some project cost overruns. These headwinds were partially offset by foreign exchange, although still negative, more favorable than assumed in our previous guidance provided in October.

受美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲強勁增長的推動，第四季度有機銷售額增長了 22%。尤其是亞洲和中國，受到 COVID 影響的阻礙，我們預計這種影響將是短暫的。我們延長了 - 我們再次以創紀錄的 48 億美元積壓結束了這一年，這有力地支持了我們對 2023 年的收入增長預測。調整後的營業利潤為 2.11 億美元，略低於指導範圍。這主要是由於中國的交易量減少了約 4000 萬美元。那裡被 COVID 浪潮關閉了。由於一些項目成本超支，ENI 的業績也低於預期。這些逆風被外匯部分抵消，儘管仍然是負面的，但比我們在 10 月份提供的先前指導中假設的要有利。

We are pleased by our pricing performance. We were on plan as we realized $135 million of price in the fourth quarter, and we delivered $365 million for the full year. We executed on the commitment we made early last year. There may have been some skeptics who discounted our ability to get price. That is understandable. I firmly believe that to deliver on commitments is the best way to respond to skepticism. And this is true in general. We demonstrated good sequential improvement in cash in the fourth quarter, but adjusted free cash flow was below expectations.

我們對我們的定價表現感到滿意。我們按計劃在第四季度實現了 1.35 億美元的價格，並且我們全年交付了 3.65 億美元。我們兌現了去年初做出的承諾。可能有一些懷疑者低估了我們獲取價格的能力。這是可以理解的。我堅信，兌現承諾是回應懷疑的最佳方式。這在一般情況下是正確的。我們在第四季度展示了良好的現金環比改善，但調整後的自由現金流低於預期。

There are reasons for the shortfall such as delayed collections in China, again, due to COVID and higher inventory due to some continued supply chain constraints because adjusted free cash flow is crucial we're instilling more rigor accountability and discipline in the whole process. David Fallon and I are keenly focused on this. Let's look at 2023. Our guidance a significant stat forward -- a significantly improved performance. Organic sales are expected to increase 15% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance, mainly because of foreign exchange, we are raising our AOP guidance from the $730 million to $750 million we announced in October to $750 million, $800 million now, over 75% increase year-over-year.

造成短缺的原因有很多，例如中國的收款延遲，再次，由於 COVID 和由於一些持續的供應鏈限制導致庫存增加，因為調整後的自由現金流至關重要，我們在整個過程中灌輸更嚴格的問責制和紀律。 David Fallon 和我非常關注這一點。讓我們看看 2023 年。我們的指導是一項重要的統計數據——性能顯著提高。在指導的中點，有機銷售額預計將同比增長 15%，這主要是因為外匯，我們將我們的 AOP 指導從 10 月份宣布的 7.3 億美元提高到 7.5 億美元，現在提高到 7.5 億美元，現在是 8 億美元，同比增長超過 75%。

We're guiding to $300 million to $400 million in adjusted free cash flow, supported by our plan of increased profit and working capital optimization. We will provide additional details around these plans as we make our way through the slides. Of course, we execute the a quarter at a time. It starts with good execution in the first quarter, and we have details on our first quarter guidance later in the slide presentation. Let's now turn to Slide 4, and let's spend a few minutes on the market.

在我們增加利潤和營運資本優化計劃的支持下，我們指導調整後的自由現金流量達到 3 億至 4 億美元。在我們瀏覽幻燈片時，我們將提供有關這些計劃的更多詳細信息。當然，我們一次執行四分之一。它從第一季度的良好執行開始，我們稍後在幻燈片演示中提供了有關第一季度指導的詳細信息。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4，讓我們花幾分鐘時間了解一下市場。

Only one change from the October view. We moved cloud hyperscale down from green to yellow in EMEA. This was driven by seeing some market signals that demand may be stabilizing, albeit at pretty high levels. Worth noting in general, cloud and hyperscale providers may swing a bit between building capacity in-house or outsourced to (inaudible) providers. So after the two categories should be looked at together. Our Asian market views remain consistent with last quarter. We have operated in a quieter market environment in Asia for 2022.

與 10 月的觀點相比，只有一個變化。我們將 EMEA 中的超大規模雲從綠色下調為黃色。這是由於看到一些市場信號表明需求可能正在穩定，儘管處於相當高的水平。一般來說，值得注意的是，雲和超大規模供應商可能會在內部建設能力或外包給（聽不清）供應商之間搖擺不定。所以以後兩個類應該放在一起看。我們對亞洲市場的看法與上一季度保持一致。 2022 年，我們在亞洲較為安靜的市場環境中運營。

I've recently visited Asia and I have to say I'm pretty encouraged by what I saw and heard on the ground. For example, India is really just at the beginning of what looks to be a meaningful investment cycle. Americas is also consistent with the last quarter market view. Even though cloud hyperscale may be coming off their height over the last couple of years, they are still growing and investing at a healthy pace and one that supports our trajectory of business.

我最近訪問了亞洲，不得不說，我在當地的所見所聞讓我深受鼓舞。例如，印度實際上正處於看似有意義的投資週期的開端。美洲市場也與上季度的看法一致。儘管超大規模雲計算在過去幾年中可能會出現下滑，但它們仍在以健康的速度增長和投資，並支持我們的業務發展軌跡。

We have discussed periods of digestion before. Certain customers are digesting their capacity. But this is a normal part of the cycle, and they typically digest at different times, which smooths the overall impact in the market. Additionally, spending is being directed to higher-density loads, such as artificial intelligence which demands more compute power and the need for additional infrastructure. We also believe that there is a normalization of orders that is happening as supply chains improved and lead times reduce.

我們之前討論過消化期。某些客戶正在消化他們的產能。但這是周期的正常部分，它們通常會在不同時間消化，從而緩和市場的整體影響。此外，支出正轉向更高密度的負載，例如需要更多計算能力和額外基礎設施的人工智能。我們還認為，隨著供應鏈的改善和交貨時間的縮短，訂單正在正常化。

As this continues, customers are likely going to return to more normal order behavior. That is good for the industry overall but they make order comparatives look more negative than what is really happening in the market. We remain cautious on the enterprise. Now that what we're seeing a different dynamic unfolding since last quarter, but more so because we are mindful of the macro around us. We know this segment would typically be the first to reflect a possible recession in the U.S.A. or at least a period of economic slowdown.

隨著這種情況的繼續，客戶可能會恢復到更正常的訂購行為。這對整個行業來說是好事，但它們使訂單比較看起來比市場上真正發生的事情更消極。我們對企業持謹慎態度。自上個季度以來，我們看到了不同的動態，但更多的是因為我們注意到我們周圍的宏觀環境。我們知道這部分通常是第一個反映美國可能出現衰退或至少是一段經濟放緩時期的部分。

This happened in 2020 with economic slowdowns related to COVID-19. So we are staying vigilant. All in all, we remain cautiously optimistic on the market, driven by the continued need for data globally and favorable technology trends like artificial intelligence, requiring a higher density and more compute power. Now let's move to Slide 5. Customer demand still feels good. This is also confirmed by conversations with our customers around the world. Levels of investment and demand for our products and services continue to be healthy. We had signals -- we have signaled that fourth quarter year-on-year orders growth would be negative given a very strong comparison in the prior year, and that is what happened.

這發生在 2020 年，當時與 COVID-19 相關的經濟放緩。所以我們保持警惕。總而言之，在全球對數據的持續需求和人工智能等有利技術趨勢的推動下，我們對市場保持謹慎樂觀，需要更高的密度和更多的計算能力。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 5。客戶需求仍然感覺良好。與我們在世界各地的客戶的對話也證實了這一點。對我們的產品和服務的投資和需求水平繼續保持健康。我們發出了信號——我們已經發出信號，鑑於上一年的對比非常強勁，第四季度的同比訂單增長將是負的，這就是發生的事情。

As an example, 4Q '21, we experienced an order growth rate of more than 100% in Americas. We expect to see the same in 1Q 2023 with a tough comparison with the prior year. When orders were up 34% and now an environment where customers return to a more normalized pattern of ordering. So we expect Q1 orders to be down double digits. It is hard to provide precision on what double digits could look like as normalization of worded partners is still unfolding. We continue to have record high backlog and ended the year at $4.8 billion, which is a 49% increase from the end of 2021.

例如，21 年第四季度，我們在美洲經歷了超過 100% 的訂單增長率。我們預計 2023 年第一季度也會出現同樣的情況，與上一年進行比較。當訂單增長 34% 時，現在是客戶恢復到更正常的訂購模式的環境。因此，我們預計第一季度訂單將下降兩位數。由於措辭合作夥伴的規範化仍在進行中，因此很難準確說明兩位數的樣子。我們的積壓訂單繼續創歷史新高，年底達到 48 億美元，比 2021 年底增長了 49%。

This is inclusive of absorbing some order cancellations from a large hyperscale provider. This backlog represents over 70% coverage of the 2023 sales guidance, which is a much higher coverage ratio than we have seen in the past. This is reflective of an industry characterized by a very tight supply chain and still dealing with disruptions. We do think a normalization of the backlog at Vertiv and in the industry in general, is starting. And we expect this to continue as customers are seeing gradual improvement in supply chain and associated reduction in the time.

這包括吸收來自大型超大規模供應商的一些訂單取消。這個積壓代表了 2023 年銷售指導的 70% 以上的覆蓋率，這比我們過去看到的覆蓋率高得多。這反映了一個以非常緊密的供應鍊為特徵且仍在應對中斷的行業。我們確實認為 Vertiv 和整個行業的積壓正常化正在開始。我們預計這種情況會持續下去，因為客戶會看到供應鏈的逐步改善和相關時間的減少。

We believe this process of normalization of the backlog will really be quite healthy for the overall market. We delivered on our pricing expectation, as previously mentioned. We continue to exercise the pricing muscle I referred to already on the 26th of October to price for the value we provide to our customers. Inflation. We still anticipate it to be a headwind in 2023, but we expect to have a net favorable price versus overall inflation impact of approximately $100 million, thanks to the actions and executional rigor we are fostering.

我們相信，這種積壓正常化的過程對整個市場來說確實是非常健康的。如前所述，我們實現了定價預期。我們繼續行使我在 10 月 26 日提到的定價能力，為我們提供給客戶的價值定價。通貨膨脹。我們仍然預計它在 2023 年將是一個逆風，但我們預計將有大約 1 億美元的淨優惠價格與總體通脹影響，這要歸功於我們正在培養的行動和執行的嚴謹性。

Supply chain continues to incrementally improve, but still not without its challenges, especially in the power electronics area. We are moving from a wack-a-mole environment to one where we are in better control also thanks to the increased supply chain resiliency, our alternative component and supply efforts are enabling. And in summary, while we see some mixed signals in the macro, the long-term demand continues to be healthy for our business. We have a bit of wind in our back relative to price cost, supply chain is trending a bit better. And we started the year in a very strong backlog position.

供應鏈繼續逐步改善，但仍面臨挑戰，尤其是在電力電子領域。我們正在從一個古怪的環境轉變為一個我們可以更好地控制的環境，這也要歸功於供應鏈彈性的提高，我們的替代組件和供應努力正在實現。總而言之，雖然我們在宏觀上看到了一些喜憂參半的信號，但長期需求對我們的業務來說仍然是健康的。相對於價格成本，我們有一點風，供應鏈的趨勢要好一些。今年年初，我們處於非常強大的積壓狀態。

Visibility is still not great in a dynamic global environment but we are focused on what we can control. I like where we are starting the year. Our fourth quarter performance sets up well for a successful 2023 despite navigating what could be a more challenging macro environment. We are strengthening and I'd like to repeat this, the operating models and executional rigor in general and certainly around everything cash flow. So with that, over to David to walk us through the financials. David?

在動態的全球環境中，能見度仍然不高，但我們專注於我們可以控制的事情。我喜歡我們開始新一年的地方。儘管應對可能更具挑戰性的宏觀環境，但我們第四季度的業績為 2023 年的成功奠定了良好基礎。我們正在加強，我想重複這一點，總體而言，運營模式和執行嚴謹性，當然還有所有現金流。因此，讓大衛帶領我們了解財務狀況。大衛？

Perfect. Thanks, Gio. First, turning to Slide 6. This slide summarizes our fourth quarter financial results. Although fourth quarter results were lower than our expectations, looking at this slide holistically, you can appreciate the marked improvement from a year ago. As both Dave and Gio mentioned, there is still work to do, but fourth quarter adjusted operating profit of $211 million, was not only a record high, but a record high by about 40%.

完美的。謝謝，吉奧。首先，轉到幻燈片 6。這張幻燈片總結了我們第四季度的財務業績。儘管第四季度的業績低於我們的預期，但從整體上看這張幻燈片，您可以體會到與一年前相比的顯著改善。正如 Dave 和 Gio 都提到的那樣，還有工作要做，但第四季度調整後的營業利潤為 2.11 億美元，不僅創歷史新高，而且創歷史新高約 40%。

Going forward, it's our aim for every quarter to be a record quarter. And we are certainly better positioned today to deliver those types of results in large part due to what we have gone through over the last 18 months or so. With that said, let's look at the fourth quarter detail. Net sales increased 17% from last year's fourth quarter and were up 22% organically. This organic growth included 12% from volume and 10% from pricing while still comfortably within our guidance range for sales versus expectations, sales were negatively impacted by approximately $40 million from the COVID wave in China which significantly limited our production in the final 2 months of the year.

展望未來，我們的目標是每個季度都創紀錄。由於我們在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡所經歷的一切，我們今天當然更有能力提供這些類型的結果。話雖如此，讓我們來看看第四季度的細節。淨銷售額比去年第四季度增長 17%，有機增長 22%。這種有機增長包括 12% 的銷量增長和 10% 的定價增長，同時仍處於我們的銷售額與預期的指導範圍內，銷售額受到中國 COVID 浪潮約 4000 萬美元的負面影響，這嚴重限制了我們在過去 2 個月的生產那一年。

Lower sales in China were partially offset by a $30 million foreign exchange tailwind versus beginning of quarter expectations as the Euro, RMB and British pound all strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Adjusted operating profit of $211 million was below our guidance range and this was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated volume in China, which should just be timing and weaker-than-expected results from E&I. Looking at the macro puts and takes, we realized a $135 million pricing benefit in the quarter, which was consistent with our beginning of quarter guidance. And pricing was partially offset by a $55 million headwind from material and freight inflation once again also consistent with our guidance.

由於歐元、人民幣和英鎊兌美元均走強，中國銷售額下降部分被 3000 萬美元的外匯逆風與季度初的預期相抵消。調整後的營業利潤為 2.11 億美元，低於我們的指導範圍，這主要是由於中國的銷量低於預期，這應該只是時機和 E&I 的業績低於預期。從宏觀看跌期權來看，我們在本季度實現了 1.35 億美元的定價收益，這與我們季度初的指導一致。價格部分被材料和運費通脹帶來的 5500 萬美元逆風所抵消，這也再次符合我們的指導。

As a result, we were $80 million price cost positive in the fourth quarter and $60 million positive for the full year. $165 million higher sales volume contributed $50 million higher adjusted operating profit, and foreign exchange, although favorable versus expectation was still a $15 million headwind versus prior year. Fourth quarter E&I performance was below our expectations, and this was driven by cost overruns on several large projects and unfavorable mix.

結果，我們在第四季度的價格成本為 8000 萬美元，全年為 6000 萬美元。 1.65 億美元的銷量增長貢獻了 5000 萬美元的調整後營業利潤和外匯，儘管與預期相比有利，但與上一年相比仍存在 1500 萬美元的逆風。第四季度的 E&I 業績低於我們的預期，這是由於幾個大型項目的成本超支和不利的組合所致。

The project cost overruns were driven by execution challenges and a lack of visibility on costs, largely focused within a single manufacturing plant and both issues are very much fixable and are being addressed as we continue to integrate E&I in the Vertiv processes and systems. While certainly a challenging quarter and quite frankly, a challenging year for E&I, we are still extremely excited about this acquisition. There is likely more tactical work to be done than we originally anticipated. But as we mentioned previously, on the last call, the potential for sales synergies is much higher than we originally modeled as evidenced by the near 150% E&I backlog growth during 2022.

項目成本超支是由執行挑戰和缺乏成本可見性驅動的，主要集中在單個製造工廠內，這兩個問題都非常容易解決，並且隨著我們繼續將 E&I 集成到 Vertiv 流程和系統中，正在得到解決。雖然這無疑是一個充滿挑戰的季度，坦率地說，對 E&I 來說也是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們仍然對此次收購感到非常興奮。可能有比我們原先預期更多的戰術工作要做。但正如我們之前提到的，在上次電話會議上，銷售協同效應的潛力遠高於我們最初建模的結果，2022 年 E&I 積壓訂單增長近 150% 就證明了這一點。

To support this higher volume, we are actively investing in capacity expansions at existing Vertiv facilities in Mexico and Slovakia as we continue to push E&I products through legacy vert of sales channels. And finally, on this slide, we generated $143 million of adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter, and that was $135 million higher than last year's fourth quarter. Although a strong year-over-year comparison, adjusted free cash flow was significantly below our guidance range driven by several factors, including delayed collections in China from the impact of COVID, higher-than-expected inventory as we continue to manage supply chain constraints, while managing a record high volume and also delayed receipt of advanced payments for several large orders, which were pushed into and likely spread throughout 2023.

為了支持這一更高的產量，我們正在積極投資於墨西哥和斯洛伐克現有 Vertiv 設施的產能擴張，因為我們將繼續通過傳統銷售渠道推廣 E&I 產品。最後，在這張幻燈片上，我們在第四季度產生了 1.43 億美元的調整後自由現金流，比去年第四季度高出 1.35 億美元。儘管與去年同期相比表現強勁，但調整後的自由現金流量明顯低於我們的指導範圍，這是由多種因素驅動的，包括因 COVID 的影響在中國延遲收款，由於我們繼續管理供應鏈限制，庫存高於預期，同時管理著創紀錄的高交易量，也延遲了幾個大訂單的預付款，這些訂單被推遲到 2023 年，並且可能會擴散到整個 2023 年。

Although fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was short of expectations, we continue to make progress in stemming the tide. We burned $380 million of adjusted free cash flow in the first half of the year while we generated $150 million in the second half, we certainly were not alone in managing the challenges of inventory in 2022. But unsurprisingly, we saw a similar pattern with inventory, which grew $180 million in the first half, but just $30 million in the second half. There is still much work to do. But as Dave and Gio both mentioned, optimizing working capital will be a significant focus for 2023 for Gio, for myself and quite frankly, the entire company.

儘管第四季度調整後的自由現金流低於預期，但我們在遏制潮流方面繼續取得進展。我們在上半年消耗了 3.8 億美元的調整後自由現金流，而在下半年產生了 1.5 億美元，我們當然不是唯一一個在 2022 年應對庫存挑戰的人。但不出所料，我們在庫存方面看到了類似的模式，上半年增長 1.8 億美元，但下半年僅增長 3000 萬美元。還有很多工作要做。但正如 Dave 和 Gio 都提到的那樣，優化營運資金將成為 Gio、我自己以及整個公司 2023 年的一個重要重點。

We believe we strengthened the P&L in 2022. And now we will work diligently to strengthen the balance sheet. Next, turning to Slide 7. This slide summarizes our fourth quarter segment -- fourth quarter segment results with strong organic sales growth in each of the Americas and EMEA. APAC organic sales were relatively flat, primarily due to COVID. Otherwise, organic sales would have been up about 9%. Americas 40% organic growth. You need to say that again, organic growth was supported by 26% volume growth and 14% pricing.

我們相信我們在 2022 年加強了損益表。現在我們將努力加強資產負債表。接下來，轉向幻燈片 7。這張幻燈片總結了我們的第四季度分部——第四季度分部結果，美洲和 EMEA 的有機銷售增長強勁。亞太地區的有機銷售額相對持平，這主要是由於 COVID。否則，有機銷售額將增長約 9%。美洲 40% 的有機增長。你需要再說一遍，有機增長得到了 26% 的銷量增長和 14% 的定價的支持。

And each of these is an impressive number in and of its own. The volume growth was supported by launching additional thermal capacity in Monterrey, while also proactively addressing several supply chain issues, including the qualification of new suppliers. From an adjusted operating margin perspective, all regions were up significantly from last year's fourth quarter. And for the first time, all regions were price/cost positive. Americas improvement was the most pronounced as they were the first region last year to be hit by inflation against an underpriced backlog.

這些中的每一個本身都是一個令人印象深刻的數字。銷量增長得益於在蒙特雷啟動額外的熱容量，同時還積極解決了幾個供應鏈問題，包括新供應商的資格。從調整後的營業利潤率來看，所有地區均較去年第四季度大幅增長。並且第一次，所有地區的價格/成本都是正的。美洲的改善最為明顯，因為它們是去年第一個因價格低估的積壓而受到通貨膨脹打擊的地區。

They were approximately $60 million price/cost positive in the quarter which demonstrates the significance of the aggressive pricing program put in place at the start of the year. Both the Americas and EMEA adjusted operating margin were above 20% for the quarter, but APAC was not that far behind. Next, turning to Slide 8. We added this slide to highlight the turnaround specifically in the Americas region in 2022. Under Gio's leadership, we saw significant sequential quarterly improvement as that business focused on getting the fundamentals right, improving processes, while also holding people accountable by emphasizing a high-performance culture.

他們在本季度的價格/成本約為 6000 萬美元，這表明了年初實施的積極定價計劃的重要性。本季度美洲和 EMEA 調整後的營業利潤率均超過 20%，但亞太地區緊隨其後。接下來，轉到幻燈片 8。我們添加這張幻燈片是為了突出 2022 年美洲地區的轉機。在 Gio 的領導下，我們看到了顯著的連續季度改進，因為該業務專注於正確的基本面、改進流程，同時還留住了人才通過強調高績效文化來承擔責任。

It's still early innings and still work to do, but we are pleased yet not satisfied with the progress to date. Gio borrowed best practices from EMEA and institutionalize those in the Americas. And as this slide demonstrates, we are certainly seeing the results. Of course, and as a reminder, the Americas region, adjusted operating margin just a couple of years ago was in the mid-20s. So there is still certainly room for significant upside in the Americas and, quite frankly, in all regions in 2023 and beyond.

現在仍處於早期階段，仍有工作要做，但我們對迄今為止的進展感到高興但並不滿意。 Gio 借鑒了 EMEA 的最佳實踐，並將美洲的最佳實踐制度化。正如這張幻燈片所示，我們肯定會看到結果。當然，提醒一下，就在幾年前，美洲地區調整後的營業利潤率還處於 20 多歲左右。因此，美洲肯定還有顯著上升的空間，坦率地說，在 2023 年及以後的所有地區。

Next, turning to Slide 9. This slide summarizes our full year results. We developed an aggressive framework to transform the business at the beginning of the year, and we made significant progress. And we'll touch upon that in the next slide. But it really was a story of two halves with each financial metric. Sales were up organically 4% in the first half, but over 20% in the second half. Adjusted operating profit was up -- or was $95 million in the first half, but $345 million in the second half. Adjusted operating margin was 3.7% first half 11% second half. Adjusted free cash flow was a burn of $380 million in the first half, but a generation of $120 million in the second half.

接下來，轉到幻燈片 9。這張幻燈片總結了我們全年的業績。我們在年初制定了一個積極的業務轉型框架，並取得了重大進展。我們將在下一張幻燈片中談到這一點。但這實際上是一個每個財務指標都分為兩半的故事。上半年銷售額有機增長 4%，但下半年增長超過 20%。調整後的營業利潤有所上升——上半年為 9500 萬美元，下半年為 3.45 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率上半年為 3.7%，下半年為 11%。調整後的自由現金流在上半年燒掉了 3.8 億美元，但在下半年燒掉了 1.2 億美元。

So although full year results are critically important, the underlying dynamics of the cadence of our improvements through the year are likely more pertinent to understand the Vertiv turnaround story which we capture on the next slide, Slide 10.

因此，儘管全年業績至關重要，但我們全年改進節奏的潛在動態可能更有助於理解我們在下一張幻燈片（幻燈片 10）中捕捉到的 Vertiv 扭虧為盈的故事。

And this slide nicely captures the turnaround executed in 2022. While there were puts and takes along the way, we execute it relatively consistent with the profile we presented in February and delivered sequentially improving performance each quarter improving adjusted operating profit by almost $200 million from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. And of course, our fourth quarter performance is not an end in and of itself, but it serves as a strong foundation for continued improving results in 2023 and well beyond which serves as a good segue, so moving from the rearview mirror to the road ahead, let's turn to Slide 12, which summarizes our full year 2023 guidance.

這張幻燈片很好地捕捉了 2022 年執行的轉機。雖然一路上有看跌期權，但我們執行它與我們在 2 月份展示的概況相對一致，並且每個季度的業績連續改善，將調整後的營業利潤從第一季度到第四季度。當然，我們第四季度的業績本身並不是終點，但它為 2023 年及以後繼續改善業績奠定了堅實的基礎，這是一個很好的延續，所以從後視鏡轉向前方的道路，讓我們轉到幻燈片 12，它總結了我們 2023 年全年的指導方針。

We anticipate 2023 sales increasing 15% at the midpoint with approximately 10% from volume and 5% from pricing, of which a significant portion is carryover or based upon enacted price increases. Markets currently remain healthy, and we have a record backlog of $4.8 billion coming into the year. Despite the recent strengthening of the euro, RMB and British pound against the U.S. dollar, we do anticipate a full year foreign exchange headwind of approximately $40 million, and that includes a $70 million headwind in the first half partially offset by a $30 million tailwind in the back half.

我們預計 2023 年的銷售額將在中點增長 15%，其中約 10% 來自銷量，5% 來自定價，其中很大一部分是結轉或基於已製定的價格上漲。市場目前保持健康，今年我們有創紀錄的 48 億美元積壓訂單。儘管近期歐元、人民幣和英鎊兌美元走強，但我們確實預計全年外匯逆風約為 4000 萬美元，其中包括上半年 7000 萬美元的逆風，部分被 3000 萬美元的逆風所抵消後半部分。

We have raised our 2023 adjusted operating profit guidance range to $750 million to $800 million and that's up from the $730 million to $750 million range previously. And this change is primarily due to the strengthening of foreign currency from the end of October when we provided that previous guidance. The midpoint of our revised guidance range represents an over 75% increase year-over-year which is certainly significant. And we include a bridge on Slide 31 in the appendix that summarizes the drivers of this increase. And Gio will touch upon some of the dynamics in a couple of pages. But big picture, it is driven by higher sales, supported by our record backlog and additional pricing, much of which is carryover.

我們已將 2023 年調整後的營業利潤指導範圍提高到 7.5 億至 8 億美元，高於之前的 7.3 億至 7.5 億美元。這種變化主要是由於我們提供先前指導的 10 月底以來外匯走強。我們修訂後的指導範圍的中點代表同比增長超過 75%，這當然很重要。我們在附錄中的幻燈片 31 上添加了一個橋樑，總結了這種增長的驅動因素。 Gio 將在幾頁中介紹一些動態。但總的來說，它是由更高的銷售額推動的，受到我們創紀錄的積壓和額外定價的支持，其中大部分是結轉。

These tailwinds are offset by an assumed $175 million of inflation. And this includes labor. About $75 million of labor inflation is included in that $175 million. And also a $40 million combined investment in R&D and additional capacity to support higher expected sales in 2023 and beyond. Adjusted EPS of $1.22 represents a 2x increase from 2022, and that's mainly driven by the improved adjusted operating profit. Adjusted free cash flow guidance of $300 million to $400 million is primarily driven by higher adjusted operating profit and optimized working capital, which, as we mentioned, will be a significant focus going forward.

這些有利因素被假定的 1.75 億美元通貨膨脹所抵消。這包括勞動力。這 1.75 億美元中包括約 7500 萬美元的勞動力通脹。此外，還有 4000 萬美元的研發投資和額外產能，以支持 2023 年及以後更高的預期銷售額。調整後的每股收益為 1.22 美元，比 2022 年增長了 2 倍，這主要是由於調整後的營業利潤有所提高。調整後的自由現金流量指引為 3 億美元至 4 億美元，這主要是由於更高的調整後營業利潤和優化的營運資本，正如我們提到的，這將是未來的一個重要重點。

Gio will provide some of the additional color on working capital initiatives in a couple of slides. And please refer to Slides 31 and 33 in the appendix for additional detail on core assumptions supporting our '23 guidance. Next, Slide 13. This includes a summary of our first quarter financial guidance. And our first quarter certainly showed significant year-over-year improvement across all financial measures. Although we realize it's against a relatively easy comparison to a weak prior year first quarter. That said, our first quarter guidance continues the trajectory of improvement building off a strong fourth quarter.

Gio 將在幾張幻燈片中提供一些關於營運資金計劃的額外顏色。請參閱附錄中的幻燈片 31 和 33，了解有關支持我們的 '23 指南的核心假設的更多詳細信息。接下來是幻燈片 13。這包括我們第一季度財務指導的摘要。我們的第一季度在所有財務指標上肯定都出現了顯著的同比改善。儘管我們意識到與去年第一季度的疲軟相比，這是相對容易的。也就是說，我們的第一季度指引延續了強勁的第四季度的改善軌跡。

However, as a reminder, seasonality in our business generally results in our first quarter being the lowest quarter and our fourth quarter being the highest. So in general, like 2022, sequentially improving quarterly financial performance across each of these financial measures in 2023 is the expectation. First quarter net sales are expected to be up 21%, 25% organically, driven by higher volume and pricing benefits, partially offset by a foreign exchange headwind. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be $125 million at the midpoint with pricing, volume and productivity offset by inflation and growth investments.

但是，提醒一下，我們業務的季節性通常導致我們的第一季度是最低的季度，而第四季度是最高的。因此，總的來說，與 2022 年一樣，預計 2023 年每項財務指標的季度財務業績都會有所改善。第一季度淨銷售額預計將增長 21%，有機增長 25%，這主要受銷量和定價優勢的推動，部分被外匯逆風所抵消。調整後的營業利潤預計在中點為 1.25 億美元，定價、數量和生產率被通貨膨脹和增長投資所抵消。

Adjusted EPS improvement is coming primarily from higher adjusted operating profit. Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to be a use of cash of between $50 million and $100 million. Approximately $75 million better than last year's first quarter despite year-over-year headwinds of $20 million from cash interest due to higher interest rates and simply from the timing of payroll. Like many industrials, our first quarter typically drives the use of cash, and we anticipate generating adjusted free cash flow for each of the remaining quarters in 2023. With that said, I turn it back over to Gio.

調整後每股收益的改善主要來自更高的調整後營業利潤。調整後的自由現金流預計將使用 5000 萬至 1 億美元的現金。儘管由於較高的利率和工資發放時間的原因，現金利息與去年同期相比有 2000 萬美元的逆風，但比去年第一季度多了約 7500 萬美元。與許多工業企業一樣，我們的第一季度通常會推動現金的使用，我們預計會在 2023 年剩餘的每個季度產生調整後的自由現金流。話雖如此，我將其轉回給 Gio。

Well, thank you, David. Thank you very much, and we turn to Slide 14. We know that this guidance may look aggressive to some. It may as well look conservative to others. But I want you to share some points that supports our assumptions about our guidance. I'll start with adjusted operating profit. And let's look at the volume assumptions. We are at the highest backlog coverage point in our history over 30%. Additionally, there is always a lot more book and ship time and materials, services, spare parts, flow business. Parts of the business that transact on a very short cycle and provide additional volume on the year. Our Q4 book-to-bill ratio was 115% and high levels that have characterized the entire 2022. Obviously, some moderation in our book-to-bill ratio is expected going into 2023 as customers return to a more normalized, as I said, order pattern.

嗯，謝謝你，大衛。非常感謝，我們轉到幻燈片 14。我們知道，對於某些人來說，該指南可能看起來過於激進。在其他人看來，它也可能看起來很保守。但我希望您分享一些支持我們對我們的指導假設的觀點。我將從調整後的營業利潤開始。讓我們看看體積假設。我們正處於歷史上超過 30% 的最高積壓覆蓋點。此外，總是有更多的預定和運輸時間以及材料、服務、備件、流動業務。部分業務的交易週期非常短，並在一年中提供額外的交易量。我們第 4 季度的訂單出貨比為 115%，這是整個 2022 年的高水平。顯然，正如我所說，隨著客戶恢復到更加正常化，我們的訂單出貨比預計會在 2023 年有所緩和，訂單模式。

This supply environment has been improving, and this should lead to a decrease in our need to do spot buys. We believe we have conservative estimates for inflation. We have a pricing plan that is largely already in backlog or based on actions that have already been taken and we have demonstrated our ability to get price. Let's look at the cash flow now. You have heard all of us speak directly about adjusted free cash flow. We know we did not execute well in this metric in 2022. Certainly, the improved adjusted operating profit starts off at a very different point for 2023. We have reasonable assumptions for elements that typically do not vary too much like interest back CapEx and we have strong working capital initiatives.

這種供應環境一直在改善，這應該會導致我們進行現貨購買的需求減少。我們認為我們對通貨膨脹有保守估計。我們有一個定價計劃，該計劃基本上已經積壓或基於已經採取的行動，並且我們已經證明了我們獲得價格的能力。讓我們看看現在的現金流。你聽說過我們所有人都直接談論調整後的自由現金流。我們知道我們在 2022 年的這個指標上表現不佳。當然，改進的調整後營業利潤從 2023 年的一個非常不同的點開始。我們對通常不會像利息回報資本支出那樣變化太大的元素有合理的假設，我們有強大的營運資金計劃。

This is a top priority for the organization, and we are managing this very closely. I would reference how we approached price last year. It was all hands on deck, rigor around the process accountability and focus on execution. And we executed well. The same rigor is around executing the working capital initiatives and the adjusted free cash flow generation. Let's now turn to Slide 15. Our focus areas for 2023 are clear, clear reflection of our priorities.

這是該組織的首要任務，我們正在非常密切地管理它。我會參考去年我們是如何處理價格的。一切都在甲板上，嚴格圍繞流程問責制並專注於執行。我們執行得很好。同樣嚴格的是執行營運資本計劃和調整後的自由現金流生成。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 15。我們 2023 年的重點領域清晰、明確地反映了我們的優先事項。

We won the entire team pulling in the same direction. We are working on the culture fostering a high-performance culture where we do what we say, where ownership is clear where we hold ourselves accountable for delivering the results and we reward performance. Culture doesn't change overnight. It is a process. But as we strengthen our focus, we have seen signs that the high-performance culture is starting to take hold and we see that through improved financial results. I've been visiting many parts of the organization lately, including China, India, Mexico, Slovakia, Ireland, the Middle East. I have met many people at all levels. And I'm very encouraged by what I see. People who love and care for what they do and care for the company. We have a lot to do, but I feel the energy of the organization. Again, pricing, supply chain resiliency and trade working capital optimization are primary focus areas, and we will continue to build those muscles, continue to institutionalize this in the organization.

我們贏得了整個團隊朝著同一個方向的拉動。我們正在努力培養一種高績效文化，在這種文化中，我們說到做到，所有權明確，我們對交付結果負責，我們獎勵績效。文化不會在一夜之間改變。這是一個過程。但隨著我們加強關注，我們已經看到高績效文化開始紮根的跡象，我們通過改善的財務業績看到了這一點。我最近訪問了該組織的許多地方，包括中國、印度、墨西哥、斯洛伐克、愛爾蘭和中東。我遇到過很多不同層次的人。我對我所看到的感到非常鼓舞。熱愛和關心自己所做的事情並關心公司的人。我們有很多事情要做，但我感受到了組織的活力。同樣，定價、供應鏈彈性和貿易營運資本優化是主要關注領域，我們將繼續增強這些力量，繼續在組織中將其製度化。

This is what high-performing companies do. We still have great potential to operate in a more efficient and effective way across the company. There is no magic wand. It's constant focus on the things that matter and strong operational execution, rigorous, relentless, pragmatic execution at all levels and starting from the top. I am encouraged by finish to 2022. The year was certainly not profit but are signs of real progress permeating throughout the organization and most importantly, showing up in our financial results.

這就是高績效公司所做的。我們仍然有很大的潛力在整個公司以更高效和有效的方式運營。沒有魔杖。它始終專注於重要的事情和強大的運營執行力，從高層開始在各個層面嚴格、不懈、務實地執行。到 2022 年結束讓我感到鼓舞。這一年當然不是盈利，而是真正進步的跡象滲透到整個組織，最重要的是，體現在我們的財務業績中。

Dave started off the call today by indicating 2022 was a year of transformation assertive. I wholeheartedly agree, and it is just the beginning. With that said, we will now turn the call over to the operator, who will open the line for questions.

戴夫在今天的電話會議一開始就表示 2022 年是轉型自信的一年。我全心全意地同意，這只是一個開始。話雖如此，我們現在將把電話轉給接線員，接線員將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question we have from the phone line comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們從電話線上收到的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

I really just have one main question, and it's just related to the order cancellation of the hyperscale customer. Could you give us a little bit more color around that? And is it your experience that these things tend to be one-offs. I mean I would think that if one customer is canceling it could be kind of a start of a trend, if you will, I'm not trying to be paranoid here, just. A little bit color there, I think, would be helpful.

我真的只有一個主要問題，它只與超大規模客戶的訂單取消有關。你能給我們多一點顏色嗎？根據您的經驗，這些事情往往是一次性的。我的意思是，我認為如果一個客戶取消，這可能是一種趨勢的開始，如果你願意的話，我並不是想在這裡變得偏執，只是。我認為那裡有一點顏色會有所幫助。

Scott, we know that paranoia is always very healthy. We try to exercise paranoia in everything, and everything we do when it comes to running the business almost religiously. This is Gio. But obviously, we're not able to share customer-specific information. But I would say it is not unusual sometimes that there are some reconfigurations in terms of what customers decide to do with their infrastructure. Having said that, of course, being paranoid, we keep an extremely sharp eye on our orders dynamics. Other now what we have signals -- we signaled, we have noticed -- we have not noticed anything extraordinary, let's say, in the dynamics. So we will continue to be -- to exercise extreme focus there, but nothing extraordinary.

斯科特，我們知道偏執狂總是非常健康的。我們試圖在所有事情上表現出偏執，以及我們幾乎虔誠地經營業務時所做的一切。這是吉奧。但很明顯，我們無法共享特定於客戶的信息。但我要說的是，有時根據客戶決定對其基礎架構執行的操作進行一些重新配置並不罕見。話雖如此，當然，由於偏執，我們對訂單動態保持著極其敏銳的眼光。其他現在我們有信號 - 我們發出信號，我們已經註意到 - 我們沒有註意到動態中的任何異常情況。因此，我們將繼續 - 在那裡極度專注，但沒有什麼特別的。

Okay. And just as a natural follow-up, I mean you've had a quarter now of kind of order normalization. Historically, does that typically last 2 to 3 quarters? Or is it something that is a little quicker than that?

好的。作為一個自然的後續行動，我的意思是你現在有四分之一的訂單正常化。從歷史上看，這通常會持續 2 到 3 個季度嗎？還是比這快一點的東西？

It is -- it's hard to refer to history here because I do not think that I've been in the industry, as you know, for quite some time. I have never seen anything like what has happened in the industry in the last 1.5 years, 2 years. The magnitude of the combination of lengthening lead times and demand growth has driven a let's say, desire to cover longer and longer demand periods of our customers. That is absolutely unprecedented. All in general, not just Vertex customers in the industry in general. So being able to say how that will undo or normalize, it's very, very hard.

這是 - 很難在這裡提及歷史，因為我不認為我已經在這個行業工作了很長一段時間，正如你所知。在過去的 1.5 年、2 年裡，我從未見過該行業發生過這樣的事情。交貨時間延長和需求增長相結合的巨大程度推動了比方說，滿足客戶越來越長的需求期的願望。這絕對是史無前例的。總的來說，不僅僅是一般行業中的 Vertex 客戶。因此，要說出這將如何撤銷或正常化，這非常非常困難。

But our expectation is that it will probably take 6 months. But hey, this is a guess. We'll keep our eyes open and try to understand how it exactly unfolds. And I'll probably be able to tell better in it.

但我們的預期是可能需要 6 個月。但是，嘿，這是一個猜測。我們會睜大眼睛，試著理解它究竟是如何展開的。我可能會在其中說得更好。

That's very helpful. Okay. Best of luck this year. I'll pass it on.

這很有幫助。好的。祝你今年好運。我會傳下去的。

Your next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Just David, going back to the raise guide for '23. You mentioned FX which makes total sense, of course, with the dollar movements. But then you mentioned E&I as a timing issue, the larger timing issue. Are you assuming that sort of the lost EBIT at E&I comes through into '23. Any help in terms of the path of recovery there would be helpful.

大衛，回到 23 年的加薪指南。你提到了外匯，當然，美元走勢是完全合理的。但後來你提到 E&I 是一個時間問題，更大的時間問題。您是否假設 E&I 損失的息稅前利潤會進入 23 年？在恢復路徑方面的任何幫助都會有所幫助。

Yes. I wouldn't necessarily call the E&I issue from the fourth quarter, a timing issue. We were referring more to the sales timing for China related to COVID. All those sales were based on orders that we have in hand and no guarantee we'll make that up in Q1, but that's certainly just a timing. As it relates to E&I, there, we certainly expect improvement in 2023 versus what we saw in 2022. I think full year adjusted operating profit for E&I was between $50 million and $55 million. We anticipated $80 million at the beginning of this year, and we certainly would anticipate something north of $80 million for full year 2023.

是的。我不一定會將第四季度的 E&I 問題稱為時間問題。我們更多地指的是與 COVID 相關的中國銷售時間。所有這些銷售都是基於我們手頭的訂單，不能保證我們會在第一季度彌補，但這肯定只是一個時機。就 E&I 而言，我們當然預計 2023 年會比 2022 年有所改善。我認為 E&I 的全年調整後營業利潤在 5000 萬美元至 5500 萬美元之間。我們在今年年初預計將達到 8000 萬美元，我們當然會預計 2023 年全年的收入將超過 8000 萬美元。

Okay. That's great. And then I think if you look at your 1Q sales guide, I think 21%, 22% of your midpoint sales coming through in 1Q as a portion of the full year. That's actually the highest proportion we've seen since Vertiv as a public company going back to 2018. So obviously, we like front-end loaded guidances, but does that indicate sort of inherent in it in the way you built up the plan? Or does it indicate some of the expectation of the slowing in the back half of the year relative to norms?

好的。那太棒了。然後我想如果你看一下你的第一季度銷售指南，我認為你的中點銷售額的 21%、22% 是在第一季度作為全年的一部分。這實際上是自 2018 年 Vertiv 作為一家上市公司以來我們看到的最高比例。很明顯，我們喜歡前端加載指南，但這是否表明您制定計劃的方式中存在某種內在的指導？或者它是否表明了下半年相對於正常水平放緩的一些預期？

Yes. That's a good question. I would say -- if you look at the risk from a sales perspective in our plan for 2023 and very consistent with what we said at the end of the third quarter. It's not going to necessarily be backlog, but it will be related to the availability of supply. And in particular, we have continuing challenges with power semiconductors and electronic components.

是的。這是個好問題。我會說——如果你從我們 2023 年計劃中的銷售角度來看風險，並且與我們在第三季度末所說的非常一致。這不一定是積壓，但它與供應的可用性有關。特別是，我們在功率半導體和電子元件方面面臨著持續的挑戰。

So there may be a bit of a hedge in the back half of the year because we don't have great visibility in that market, similar to everybody who is trying to get their hands on those power semiconductors. In addition, there is still a healthy amount of book and ship that is out there for the back half of the year, and we'll have better visibility into that at the end of the first quarter and probably much better at the end of the first half.

因此，今年下半年可能會有一些對沖，因為我們在那個市場上的知名度不高，就像每個試圖涉足這些功率半導體的人一樣。此外，今年下半年仍有數量可觀的書籍和出貨量，我們將在第一季度末更好地了解這一點，並且在第二季度末可能會好得多上半場。

So just to be clear, you still expect there to be supply constraints in the back half of the year?

所以要明確一點，您仍然預計下半年會出現供應限制？

Specifically as it relates to electronic components and Gio can speak to the supply environment. But one of our objectives on this call is to make it clear that we're not through the supply chain issues, right? And I would say many components we purchase are much better than they were 3 months ago, 6 months ago. But there are certainly still challenges on very critical components that we have to procure across our entire product line, whether that's AC power or thermal.

特別是因為它與電子元件有關，而 Gio 可以與供應環境對話。但是我們這次電話會議的目標之一是明確表示我們沒有解決供應鏈問題，對嗎？我會說我們購買的許多組件比 3 個月前、6 個月前要好得多。但是，我們必須在整個產品線中採購的非常關鍵的組件肯定仍然存在挑戰，無論是交流電源還是熱能。

One, in particular, is the power semiconductors. And there's long lead times there, and we don't have great visibility. We do anticipate that improving as we go through the year. But our visibility there probably is a matter of quarters, not a matter of -- looking out what a year is going to potentially look like?

尤其是功率半導體。而且那裡的交貨時間很長，而且我們的知名度不高。我們確實預計這一年會有所改善。但我們在那裡的能見度可能只是幾個季度的問題，而不是——看看一年可能會是什麼樣子？

Yes, I can comment further. Thank you, David, Nigel. So we have on the supply side of things to aspects at the same time in parallel. One is us getting, of course, stronger, more robust. As we explained, we have strengthened our SIOP Processes. We have made our supply network and supply base more resilient with multi-sourced components and also supplies. But at the same time, the market, albeit improving is certainly not normalizing that is at the same time on the supply side, especially as Dave was saying, everything that has to do with the power semiconductors.

是的，我可以進一步評論。謝謝你，大衛，奈傑爾。所以我們在事物的供應方面同時並行。當然，一個是我們變得更強大、更健壯。正如我們所解釋的，我們已經加強了我們的 SIOP 流程。我們通過多源組件和供應使我們的供應網絡和供應基地更具彈性。但與此同時，市場雖然有所改善，但肯定不會同時在供應方面正常化，尤其是正如戴夫所說，與功率半導體有關的一切。

But the power semiconductors are present in this lot of things -- a lot of the components we use. They're not just as such, but components in the components we purchase. So we believe we are stronger. We believe we have figured a lot of things out during the course of 2022. But by all means, the message is not that everything is perfect out there. And it's still a complicated market, but we're much better equipped to navigate in that market.

但是功率半導體存在於很多東西中——我們使用的很多組件。它們不僅如此，而且是我們購買的組件中的組件。所以我們相信我們更強大。我們相信我們在 2022 年期間已經解決了很多問題。但無論如何，信息並不是說一切都完美無缺。它仍然是一個複雜的市場，但我們有更好的能力在那個市場中導航。

Your next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

Can you talk about maybe some of the levers on cash into '24 and kind of where normalized free cash would land for you guys in the next couple of years? Or not normalized, but where you think you can get to on that number beyond this year?

你能談談現金進入 24 年的一些槓桿，以及在未來幾年內標準化的自由現金將為你們降落的地方嗎？或者沒有標準化，但你認為你可以在今年以後達到這個數字？

Yes. This is David. So if you look at our guide, for '23. And we break down the components, I think, Page 33 in the appendix. So you can see how it kind of built up the most important, certainly, you got to start with adjusted EBITDA. And that certainly there'd be an expectation for that debt to flow through if that's higher or lower than what we're targeting. Putting working capital aside, the other three components, as Gio mentioned, there's some probability of variability there, but I wouldn't say significant.

是的。這是大衛。因此，如果您查看我們的 23 年指南。我們分解了組件，我認為，附錄中的第 33 頁。所以你可以看到它是如何建立最重要的，當然，你必須從調整後的 EBITDA 開始。如果高於或低於我們的目標，那肯定會有債務流動的預期。撇開營運資金不談，其他三個組成部分，正如 Gio 提到的那樣，存在一定的可變性可能性，但我不會說顯著。

Certainly, if we're more profitable, we'll pay more taxes. That's just kind of how it works. But fairly certain that we would -- our CapEx number will come in within a range of what's reasonable with what we guided. And then interest, we're definitely subject to movement in interest rates. But if we have significant upside or slight downside, it more than likely isn't going to be related to those three components. It's going to be the working capital component. And if you look at the $75 million use for full year 2023, we certainly assume success in some of the working capital initiatives that Gio mentioned.

當然，如果我們的利潤更高，我們就會繳納更多的稅。這就是它的工作原理。但可以肯定的是，我們會 - 我們的資本支出數字將在我們指導的合理範圍內。然後是利息，我們肯定會受到利率變動的影響。但是，如果我們有顯著的上行空間或輕微的下行空間，它很可能與這三個組成部分無關。這將是營運資金部分。而且，如果您查看 2023 年全年的 7500 萬美元使用情況，我們當然會假設 Gio 提到的一些營運資金計劃取得了成功。

Working capital in and of itself will be a headwind due to the 15% organic growth, right? That's just how it works. But with that said, it's not hundreds of millions of dollars. It's not a $300 million or $400 million headwind, and we're expecting very significant or including in our guidance, very significant working capital initiative benefits. So that headwind could be $1 million or $200 million, you can do the math. And that's based on what we think sales are going to be in the fourth quarter of '23 versus the fourth quarter of 2022. So we have some provision in these numbers for success with optimizing working capital, but it could end up being a conservative assumption.

由於 15% 的有機增長，營運資金本身將是一個逆風，對吧？這就是它的工作原理。但話雖如此，也不是數億美元。這不是 3 億美元或 4 億美元的逆風，我們期待非常重要或包括在我們的指導中，非常重要的營運資本計劃收益。所以逆風可能是 100 萬美元或 2 億美元，你可以算一下。這是基於我們認為 23 年第四季度與 2022 年第四季度的銷售額相比。因此，我們在這些數字中為成功優化營運資本提供了一些準備，但這最終可能是一個保守的假設.

There's still a lot of complications. The supply chain is not back to stable. So there's a lot of challenges in front of us, but we're confident with this guidance we have provided. But if you look at the $350 million versus, if you will, an adjusted net income for the full year, it's probably 75%, 80%. We would target in the long run, being in the 90%-plus range. It's always hard for an industrial company to get to 100% of free cash flow conversion if the expectation is to grow 10% to 15% a year.

仍然有很多並發症。供應鏈並未恢復穩定。所以我們面前有很多挑戰，但我們對我們提供的指導充滿信心。但如果你看看 3.5 億美元與全年調整後的淨收入，如果你願意的話，它可能是 75%、80%。從長遠來看，我們的目標是在 90% 以上的範圍內。如果期望每年增長 10% 到 15%，那麼工業公司總是很難實現 100% 的自由現金流轉換。

With that said, we believe this is a reasonable guide between the $300 million and $400 million, but is definitely room for upside if we're able to execute some of our working capital initiatives quicker than what's assumed in the guidance.

話雖如此，我們認為這是 3 億美元至 4 億美元之間的合理指導，但如果我們能夠比指導中假設的更快地執行我們的一些營運資金計劃，那絕對是有上升空間的。

Right. So the short answer to that is 90%. You view as being normalized, 90% of that income.

正確的。所以對此的簡短回答是 90%。您認為該收入的 90% 已正常化。

That would be the long-term goal. Yes. 90% of adjusted net income.

這將是長期目標。是的。調整後淨收入的 90%。

Can you get there in, do you think '24?

你能進去嗎，你認為'24？

I believe we can. And it -- if you look at our issues, they're all very fixable, right? Inventory increased this year, that was probably up $250 million. It was definitely somewhat of a chaotic environment, but we have a game plan for this year.

我相信我們可以。它——如果你看看我們的問題，它們都是可以解決的，對吧？今年庫存增加了，可能增加了 2.5 億美元。這絕對是一個有點混亂的環境，但我們今年有一個遊戲計劃。

And that also goes for many of the components of working capital. So AR, we had some complex larger orders that we had to process in 2022 with multiple deliverables, very tactical issues that we can address. So I feel fairly confident we can get to that 90% number in '24 and go forward. But let us get through 2023 first, and then we'll provide some insight on what we think the timing would be for that number going forward.

這也適用於營運資金的許多組成部分。所以 AR，我們有一些複雜的大訂單，我們必須在 2022 年處理多個可交付成果，這是我們可以解決的非常戰術性的問題。所以我相當有信心我們可以在 24 年達到 90% 的數字並繼續前進。但讓我們先度過 2023 年，然後我們將提供一些見解，說明我們認為該數字未來的時間安排。

Your next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Wanted to just pick up where Steve left off, just thinking about the actual process of deleveraging here and if there's any leakage in the equation? I know there's always noise at year-end, but it looks to me like net debt only declined by about 1/3 of what the free cash flow was in the quarter. So there's like other uses somewhere, which I haven't figured out and that time today to try to sort that out.

想從史蒂夫離開的地方繼續，只是想著這裡去槓桿化的實際過程，以及等式中是否有任何漏洞？我知道年底總是有噪音，但在我看來，淨債務僅下降了該季度自由現金流量的 1/3 左右。所以在某個地方還有其他用途，我還沒有弄清楚，今天那個時候試圖解決這個問題。

But if you do $350 million of free cash flow in 2023, can we expect something in the neighborhood of deleveraging net cash -- net debt improvement kind of in that range?

但是，如果您在 2023 年實現 3.5 億美元的自由現金流，我們是否可以期待在淨現金去槓桿化附近有所改善——淨債務改善在該範圍內？

Yes. So the significant use outside of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, Jeff, was related to the tax receivable agreement. There was a $75 million payment in the fourth quarter which takes that off our books completely. If you look at the leverage, if you look at the math at year-end, and you look at a trailing 12-month EBITDA number, I think our net debt leverage is about 5.6%, which certainly is much higher than we would like.

是的。因此，傑夫，第四季度自由現金流以外的大量使用與應收稅款協議有關。第四季度支付了 7500 萬美元，這完全從我們的賬簿上扣除了。如果你看一下槓桿率，如果你看一下年末的數學，以及過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 數字，我認為我們的淨債務槓桿率約為 5.6%，這肯定比我們希望的要高得多.

But if you look at that same ratio looking at a forward-looking EBITDA number, meaning the approximately $865 million of EBITDA anticipated for '23. It's about 3.5x levered. And then if you assume the $350 million of expected free cash flow is used to delever, whether sitting in cash on the balance sheet or to pay down debt. The net leverage gets down to 3x. So if we execute upon our plan in 2023 there's a relatively quick path to that deleveraging. And our long-term goal is to keep leverage between 2x and 3x that we're willing to go either below or above that range for specific reasons. But in general, if we execute what we have on paper here in '23, we should be closer to 3x levered as we exit '23.

但是，如果您查看前瞻性 EBITDA 數字的相同比率，這意味著 23 年預期的 EBITDA 約為 8.65 億美元。大約是槓桿的 3.5 倍。然後，如果你假設 3.5 億美元的預期自由現金流用於去槓桿化，無論是資產負債表上的現金還是用於償還債務。淨槓桿率降至 3 倍。因此，如果我們在 2023 年執行我們的計劃，那麼去槓桿化就會相對較快。我們的長期目標是將槓桿率保持在 2 到 3 倍之間，我們願意出於特定原因低於或高於該範圍。但總的來說，如果我們在 23 年執行我們在紙面上的內容，那麼在退出 23 年時我們應該接近 3 倍的槓桿率。

Great. And then just back to just kind of business conditions. Back on Slide 5, just to comment that the pricing environment remains favorable in many of our product segments sort of implies it's not favorable and others. Could you just maybe talk about the tenor of price on new incoming orders? And where there might be softness if you're implying there is some softness in that statement.

偉大的。然後回到剛才的業務條件。回到幻燈片 5，只是評論我們的許多產品領域的定價環境仍然有利，這意味著它並不有利和其他。您能否談談新訂單的價格走勢？如果您暗示該聲明中有一些軟性，那麼可能會有軟性。

Well, there are two different dynamics at play. One, what I mentioned as our pricing muscle so an ability to better price for the value that we deliver. We deliver to our customers. So that's something that will always be there. and something that we did not have at least not with the efficacy that we have now in the past. So that stays I think that shouldn't read the phrase on the negative side. The message is despite an environment in which we see on the cost side in general, a moderating inflation, but inflation nonetheless, we still see that in many parts of our business, we still can continue to work the price lever. And that's what we're doing.

好吧，有兩種不同的動力在起作用。一，我提到的我們的定價能力，因此能夠為我們提供的價值更好地定價。我們交付給我們的客戶。所以這是永遠存在的東西。以及我們過去沒有的東西，至少沒有我們現在擁有的功效。所以我認為不應該從消極的方面來解讀這個短語。消息是，儘管我們在總體上看到成本方面的環境，通貨膨脹正在緩和，但儘管如此，通貨膨脹，我們仍然看到在我們業務的許多部分，我們仍然可以繼續使用價格槓桿。這就是我們正在做的。

When it comes to 2023, in particular, a big chunk of our price is already in backlog. And that price in our backlog of course is very important for us to deliver on our guidance. But also the price that is not yet in the backlog is a price that we see being realized with the orders that we are in taking. But expect over time a normalization also in terms of price. And when that happens, and it is not necessarily now in the market because, again, the inflationary trends are still there. When that happens, we are better equipped with an ability to price for value.

特別是到了 2023 年，我們的價格中有很大一部分已經積壓。當然，我們積壓訂單中的這個價格對於我們實現我們的指導非常重要。但還沒有積壓的價格是我們看到正在接受的訂單實現的價格。但隨著時間的推移，預計價格也會正常化。當這種情況發生時，它不一定現在就在市場上，因為通貨膨脹趨勢仍然存在。當這種情況發生時，我們就能更好地具備按價值定價的能力。

Your next question comes from Lance Vitanza of Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Lance Vitanza。

I had two questions, if I could. The first is actually back on Slide 4, the market environment. And I was hoping you could drill down a little bit more on the EMEA, which -- cloud hyperscale which moved from green to yellow and Gio, could you talk a little bit more about what's driving that change? And is it linked to fears around an economic contraction? Or has that market just become somewhat saturated? And -- and then I guess, is the next move? Do we think is it more likely to be a move from yellow to red, or do we think it's more likely to move back to green?

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。第一個實際上是回到幻燈片 4，即市場環境。我希望你能更深入地了解 EMEA，即從綠色變為黃色的雲超大規模和 Gio，你能多談談是什麼推動了這種變化嗎？它是否與圍繞經濟收縮的恐懼有關？還是那個市場剛剛變得有些飽和？而且——然後我想，下一步是什麼？我們認為它更有可能從黃色變為紅色，還是我們認為它更有可能回到綠色？

Well, as I was saying, it's -- we can have a very sharp eye on all the signals in this moment in which the order dynamics are very dynamic. As we explained during the -- as we were going through the deck, we have no signals in this moment that would tell us in this moment. I would tell us that there is red looming behind the colors that you see here. But again, well, we keep our eyes wide open in case of something changes. When it comes to the EMEA, we see it more of a change of mix between cloud (inaudible) and colocation, as I mentioned, in one of our -- in my comments earlier.

好吧，正如我所說的那樣——我們可以非常敏銳地觀察此時訂單動態非常動態的所有信號。正如我們在 - 當我們穿過甲板時所解釋的那樣，此時此刻我們沒有任何信號可以告訴我們。我會告訴我們，您在這裡看到的顏色背後隱約可見紅色。但是，好吧，我們還是要睜大眼睛以防萬一。當談到 EMEA 時，我們看到它更多地是雲（聽不清）和託管之間的混合變化，正如我在我們之前的評論中提到的那樣。

And again, simply a change of mix between what the hyperscalers and cloud providers build for their own direct infrastructure vis-a-vis what they leave and the color may flip. I would not read dramatically into that. Just saying, hey, EMEA is going through the same type of order normalization that I've signaled and mentioned already, and we'll see how that plays out.

再說一遍，超大規模提供商和雲提供商為自己的直接基礎設施構建的內容與他們留下的內容之間的簡單混合變化，顏色可能會翻轉。我不會戲劇性地讀到這一點。只是說，嘿，EMEA 正在經歷我已經發出信號並提到過的相同類型的訂單正常化，我們將看看結果如何。

Okay. And then just lastly for me. You mentioned -- actually, I think it was David who mentioned that with E&I that there might be a need for some more tactical work there. I was wondering if you could flesh that out a bit. And then with respect to the backlog, I think you said the backlog was up like 100-plus percent. And wondering if you could break that out a bit in terms of U.S. versus EMEA versus Asia Pacific.

好的。最後對我來說。你提到過——實際上，我認為是大衛提到 E&I 那裡可能需要一些更多的戰術工作。我想知道你是否可以充實一下。然後關於積壓，我想你說過積壓增加了 100% 以上。並且想知道您是否可以根據美國與 EMEA 與亞太地區的關係來打破這一點。

So we may not have time to go into the details by region here when it comes to the backlog. But I must say that we are very, very happy about the sales leverage that we are obtaining, expanding the -- adding the E&I portfolio to the broader Vertiv go-to-market. And indeed, if you will, we've been also quite surprised by how strong the market reaction has been. So with that, as David was mentioning, we are expanding capacity.

因此，當涉及到積壓時，我們可能沒有時間在這裡按地區詳細介紹。但我必須說，我們對我們正在獲得的銷售槓桿感到非常非常高興，擴大了——將 E&I 產品組合添加到更廣泛的 Vertiv 進入市場。事實上，如果你願意的話，我們也對市場反應如此強烈感到非常驚訝。因此，正如大衛提到的那樣，我們正在擴大產能。

We are expanding capacity quite vigorously specifically for E&I. The rest is about accelerating the integration, making sure that the same rigorous executional approach that we are instigating for Vertiv as a whole is applicable to E&I and continue to drive price.

我們正在大力擴大 E&I 的產能。剩下的就是加速整合，確保我們為 Vertiv 整體推行的同樣嚴格的執行方法適用於 E&I 並繼續推動價格。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Giordano Albertazzi as for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Giordano Albertazzi 作任何閉幕詞。

Well, thank you. Thanks to all of you for joining our call today. I really appreciate the support and very much looking forward to reporting out on our Q1 2023 progress. So stay tuned. And again, a big thank you.

嗯，謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我非常感謝大家的支持，並非常期待報告我們 2023 年第一季度的進展情況。敬請期待。再次，非常感謝。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you all for attending this presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝大家參加本次演講。您現在可以斷開連接。