Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Upstart fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Sonya Banerjee, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Sonya.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Sonya Banerjee。請繼續，索尼婭。

Thank you. Welcome to the Upstart earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. With me on today's call are David Girouard, our CEO and Co-Founder, and Sanjay Dada, our CFO.

謝謝。歡迎參加 Upstart 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長兼聯合創始人 David Girouard 和我們的財務長 Sanjay Dada。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which includes statements about our outlook and business strategy. These statements are based on our expectations and beliefs as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關我們的展望和業務策略的陳述。這些聲明是基於我們今天的期望和信念，並受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events except as required by law.

由於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Our discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for our GAAP results. Reconciliations of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in our earnings materials, which are available on our IR website.

我們的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，它們不能取代我們的 GAAP 結果。我們的歷史 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對帳表可在我們的收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

Before I turn the call over to Dave, I'll share the events that we're participating in this quarter. On February 13, we'll be participating in a retail investor Q&A on Twitter with Henry Invests, and on March 3 we'll be participating in the Citizens JMP Technology Conference. A replay of both events will be available on our IR website.

在我將電話轉給戴夫之前，我將分享我們本季參與的活動。2 月 13 日，我們將與 Henry Invests 在 Twitter 上參加散戶投資者問答活動，3 月 3 日，我們將參加公民 JMP 技術大會。這兩次活動的重播將在我們的 IR 網站上提供。

With that, Dave, over to you.

好了，戴夫，交給你了。

Thanks, Sonya. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. 2024 was a year of rapid quarter by quarter improvement for Upstart, and the fourth quarter clearly took the cake. Considering the weak environment we faced at the beginning of the year, we couldn't have asked for a stronger finish. In Q4, our business grew dramatically across all product categories on a sequential basis, delivered adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022 and came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability.

謝謝，索尼婭。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。 2024 年對 Upstart 來說是逐季快速改善的一年，而第四季顯然表現最佳。考慮到我們年初面臨的疲軟環境，我們不可能要求更強的成績。在第四季度，我們所有產品類別的業務均實現了連續大幅增長，調整後的 EBITDA 達到了 2022 年第一季以來的最高水平，並且距離恢復 GAAP 盈利僅一步之遙。

We'll get to the financial details a bit later, but it's worth summarizing up front. In Q4, overall, our origination volume grew 33% and our revenue grew 35%, both on a sequential basis. On a year over year basis, this equates to 68% growth in originations and 56% growth in revenue. Originations for each of our new product categories grew at an incredible pace.

我們稍後會討論財務細節，但值得先總結一下。整體而言，第四季我們的發起量較上季成長了 33%，營收季增了 35%。與去年同期相比，這相當於發起量成長了 68%，營收成長了 56%。我們每個新產品類別的推出都以驚人的速度成長。

With both auto and HELOC growing by about 60% sequentially and our small dollar relief product growing a stunning 115% quarter on quarter, none of this could have happened without insanely great work by Upstarters across the country, and I want to thank each of them for believing in Upstart and achieving more than we thought possible just a year ago.

汽車和 HELOC 均環比增長約 60%，我們的小額救濟產品環比增長驚人的 115%，如果沒有全國各地 Upstarters 的辛勤工作，這一切都不可能發生，我要感謝他們每一個人對 Upstart 的信任，並取得了超出我們在一年前認為可能的成績。

While we continue to deliver model and product wins to support that growth, we also finally benefited from a macro tailwind most clearly represented by the decline of the Upstart macro index in the latter part of 2024. We never plan our business assuming any future improvements to the macro, but they certainly appreciate it when they come.

在我們繼續提供模型和產品勝利來支持這種成長的同時，我們也最終受益於宏觀順風，最明顯的代表是 2024 年下半年 Upstart 宏觀指數的下降。我們從未在業務規劃中假設未來宏觀會有什麼改進，但當這些改進到來時，他們肯定會感激的。

Now we'd like to dive in and describe some of the product and model wins that we saw in the fourth quarter. In our core personal loan product, we continue to deliver model innovations that separate us further from the crowd. Model winds that increase risk separation are the lifeblood of Upstart. They're responsible for much of the improvements you've seen in our business lately, and our pipeline of potential future model wins is robust.

現在我們想深入探討並描述我們在第四季度看到的一些產品和模型的成功。在我們的核心個人貸款產品中，我們不斷推出模式創新，以使我們脫穎而出。增加風險分離的模型風是 Upstart 的命脈。他們對我們最近業務的改進做出了很大貢獻，而且我們未來的潛在模式成功管道也十分強大。

If you recall with Model 18, the most impactful innovation was using the price of the loan, or APR as an input to the model. This is what's referred to as a feature of the model in [MLSpeak], and it led to a giant leap forward in model accuracy. This model delivered much of the momentum we saw in the second half of 2024.

如果您還記得模型 18，那麼最有影響力的創新就是使用貸款價格或 APR 作為模型的輸入。這就是 [MLSpeak] 中所指的模型的一個特性，它使得模型準確性有了巨大的飛躍。這個模型實現了我們在 2024 年下半年看到的大部分勢頭。

In Q4 we launched Model 19, which introduced a new capability called Payment Transition Model or PTM. To explain this a bit, in all prior models, the underwriting model only considered the terminal state and timing of a loan in the training data set. In other words, the particular month when a loan was charged off or prepaid. PTM enables consideration of intermediate delinquency states that may have preceded the final status of the loan. This means delinquencies that recover to current are suddenly meaningful in the training data and can inform a more accurate model. It also means that our model can properly learn from loans that are delinquent but not charged off directly in the core model.

我們在第四季度推出了模型 19，它引入了一個稱為支付轉換模型（PTM）的新功能。稍微解釋一下，在所有先前的模型中，承保模型僅考慮訓練資料集中貸款的最終狀態和時間。換句話說，就是貸款被註銷或預付的特定月份。PTM 能夠考慮貸款最終狀態之前的中間拖欠狀態。這意味著恢復到當前的拖欠情況在訓練資料中突然變得有意義，並且可以為更準確的模型提供資訊。這也意味著我們的模型可以從核心模型中直接拖欠但未註銷的貸款中正確地學習。

We're often surprised by the increase in accuracy these types of innovations deliver, but concepts like APR as a feature and PTM aren't one-time boosts. They're new model forms entirely. You can think of them as innovation vectors that offer our team many ways to refine and build on their advantages for a long time to come.

我們常常對這些類型的創新所帶來的準確性的提高感到驚訝，但像 APR 功能和 PTM 這樣的概念並不是一次性的提升。它們完全是新的模型形式。你可以將它們視為創新載體，它們為我們的團隊提供了許多方法，以便在未來很長一段時間內改進和鞏固其優勢。

In addition to these core model innovations focused on risk separation, we've also invested significantly in achieving consistent model calibration. I want to share some recent thoughts and analysis we've done in this area. As a reminder, calibration measures the GAAP between the predicted and actual overall level of default. And as we all know, Upstart has several quarterly vintages that underperformed during the time that the government was withdrawing COVID stimulus. It's important to state first that less than 1% of our lending partners' quarterly vintages actually lost principal during even the worst of this period. But of course, any underperformance whatsoever isn't a good thing.

除了這些專注於風險分離的核心模型創新之外，我們還在實現一致的模型校準方面投入了大量資金。我想分享我們在這個領域的一些最新想法和分析。提醒一下，校準衡量的是預測和實際總體違約水準之間的 GAAP。眾所周知，在政府撤回 COVID 刺激措施期間，Upstart 的幾個季度表現不佳。首先需要說明的是，即使在這段期間最糟糕的情況下，我們的貸款合作夥伴的季度貸款中實際上損失本金的也不到 1%。但當然，任何表現不佳的情況都不是好事。

We recently completed a back test using today's macro handling tools applied to this period associated with intense macro volatility. We found that had we had today's tools throughout this time of volatility, we would have avoided 55% of the excess loan defaults observed in that historical period and would have returned to full calibration 12 months sooner. This analysis gives us confidence that we're making meaningful strides to improve the resilience of our platform through periods of economic volatility and bodes well for our future.

我們最近使用當今的宏觀處理工具對這一宏觀波動劇烈的時期進行了回溯測試。我們發現，如果我們在這段動盪時期擁有今天的工具，我們就可以避免那段歷史時期出現的 55% 的超額貸款違約，並在 12 個月前恢復完全校準。這項分析讓我們有信心，我們正在取得有意義的進展，以增強我們平台在經濟波動時期的彈性，這對我們的未來來說是一個美好的預兆。

Moving on to our newer products. In Q4, we released new underwriting models for both our auto refinance and auto retail products, resulting in improved conversion rates and contributing to the roughly 60% sequential increase in origination volume that I mentioned earlier.

接下來介紹我們的新產品。在第四季度，我們發布了針對汽車再融資和汽車零售產品的新承保模式，從而提高了轉換率，並推動了我之前提到的發起量環比增長約 60%。

Auto refi in particular has seen giant improvements in conversion rates, about a 7x improvement across all of 2024. Also, the modest reductions in base interest rates has begun to revive the auto refinance opportunity, and we hope to take full advantage of it in 2025.

汽車再融資的轉換率尤其出現了巨大提升，到 2024 年全年提高了約 7 倍。此外，基準利率的適度下調已開始恢復汽車再融資機會，我們希望在 2025 年充分利用這一機會。

We're increasingly focused on auto refinance as an excellent cross-sell opportunity for our millions of prior borrowers. Our HELOC product had a strong Q4, growing by approximately 60% sequentially, much like our auto business. This growth was driven by a combination of conversion improvements, cross-selling, and expanding state eligibility.

我們越來越關注汽車再融資，因為這對我們數百萬之前的借款人來說是一個絕佳的交叉銷售機會。我們的 HELOC 產品第四季表現強勁，較上季成長約 60%，與我們的汽車業務非常相似。這一增長是由轉換率的提高、交叉銷售和擴大國家資格等多種因素共同推動的。

In Q4, we automated the counteroffer process, much as we did in personal loans years ago. This is an important conversion booster. In December, we launched a machine learning powered feature that increased instant income verification rates by 34%. We also ramped up our ability to cross-sell HELOCs to prior borrowers.

在第四季度，我們實現了還價流程的自動化，就像幾年前我們在個人貸款中所做的那樣。這是一個重要的轉換助推器。12 月，我們推出了一項機器學習功能，將即時收入驗證率提高了 34%。我們也增強了向之前的借款人交叉銷售 HELOC 的能力。

We finished the year with our HELOC offered in 36 states representing 60% of the US population. We're working hard and hoping to begin originations in our home state of California soon. We also finished 2024 with more than 1,000 HELOCs originated in zero defaults, a super strong start for our newest product.

今年，我們在 36 個州推出了 HELOC，占美國人口的 60%。我們正在努力工作並希望很快在我們的家鄉加利福尼亞州開始發起活動。到 2024 年，我們的 HELOC 發放數量也超過了 1,000 筆，且沒有出現任何違約情況，這對於我們的最新產品來說是一個非常強勁的開端。

In Q4, we also signed our first HELOC agreement with a lending partner. This is an important milestone for us and a harbinger of great things to come. HELOC offers were already being made on behalf of this partner in January, which is a super-fast turnaround on bringing the partner live.

在第四季度，我們也與貸款合作夥伴簽署了第一份 HELOC 協議。這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑，也是未來偉大事業的預兆。今年 1 月，該合作夥伴已提出 HELOC 報價，這對於合作夥伴的啟動來說是一個超快速的周轉。

And more importantly, this partner's offers improved the best HELOC rates available on Upstart by about 100 basis points, a huge win for borrowers and for Upstart. The demand for HELOCs from our lending partners is substantial because it's very prime, and it's a product with which they're both familiar and comfortable. Banks and credit unions also love homeowners as customers. So it's quite likely our funding supply for HELOC will exceed our needs for some time to come.

更重要的是，該合作夥伴的報價將 Upstart 上的最佳 HELOC 利率提高了約 100 個基點，這對借款人和 Upstart 來說都是一個巨大的勝利。我們的貸款合作夥伴對 HELOC 的需求很大，因為它非常優質，而且是他們熟悉且滿意的產品。銀行和信用社也喜歡房主作為客戶。因此，未來一段時間內，我們對 HELOC 的資金供應很可能會超過我們的需求。

I expect 2025 will be a great year for home lending as a fast growing and emerging part of Upstart. I'm increasingly confident that our HELOC product will have a distinct advantage, not only in terms of process automation, which is always an Upstart strength, but also in terms of cost of funding, given our extensive relationships with and business orientation toward banks and credit unions.

我預計 2025 年將是房屋貸款豐收的一年，因為房屋貸款是 Upstart 中快速成長的新興業務。我越來越有信心，我們的 HELOC 產品將具有明顯的優勢，不僅在流程自動化方面（這一直是 Upstart 的優勢），而且在融資成本方面，鑑於我們與銀行和信用合作社的廣泛關係和業務導向。

The team developing our small dollar relief loans continued their amazing run with more than 100% sequential growth in loan volume in Q4. This was driven predominantly by the large reduction in variable cost per loan origination that I referenced earlier in the year.

我們開發小額救濟貸款的團隊繼續保持令人驚嘆的勢頭，第四季度的貸款量環比增長超過 100％。這主要是由於我今年早些時候提到的每筆貸款發放的變動成本大幅下降。

This giant cost improvement allowed us to approve more borrowers for small dollar loans within our target economics. The SDL product has exceptional credit performance, strong gross margins, and accounted for more than 13% of new borrowers on Upstart in the fourth quarter.

這一巨大的成本改進使我們能夠在目標經濟範圍內批准更多藉款人獲得小額美元貸款。SDL 產品的信貸表現優異，毛利率強勁，佔第四季 Upstart 新增借款人的 13% 以上。

As of Model 19, we're beginning to use small dollar repayment data to help train our core personal loan underwriting model. This has the important effect of expanding the sample set of brows on which the model is trained to represent even more Americans. In the near future, we'll be moving to a single underwriting model for both of our unsecured products, which we expect to lead to more efficiency and accuracy for both.

從模型 19 開始，我們開始使用小額還款資料來幫助訓練我們的核心個人貸款核保模式。這對於擴大訓練模型的眉毛樣本集以代表更多的美國人具有重要的作用。在不久的將來，我們將對兩種無擔保產品採用單一核保模式，我們希望這將提高兩種產品的效率和準確性。

Last year I outlined plans to modernize and scale our servicing operations by leveraging data, automation, and personalization to improve borrower outcomes and operational efficiency. In 2024, it became clear that these efforts were paying off.

去年，我概述了透過利用數據、自動化和個人化來實現我們的服務營運現代化和規模化的計劃，以改善借款人結果和營運效率。到 2024 年，這些努力顯然已獲得回報。

In Q4, we increase the rate at which a delinquent borrower makes a payment within 14 days of contact by 25% sequentially by personalizing our outreach timing and methods. This demonstrates how personalization helps borrowers stay on track and improves overall portfolio health.

在第四季度，我們透過個人化我們的外展時間和方法，將拖欠貸款的借款人在聯繫後 14 天內付款的比例連續提高 25%。這表明個性化如何幫助借款人保持正軌並改善整體投資組合的健康狀況。

Ongoing investments in automation helped us reduce the people-related cost per current loan by 50% over the course of 2024. At the same time, we've intentionally prioritized direct collections efforts for borrowers at risk of default where they're most impactful. This balanced approach, automating routine servicing while intensifying delinquency management, has helped us reduce roll rates from one day delinquent to charge off by 15% year over year.

持續對自動化的投資幫助我們在 2024 年期間將每筆當前貸款的人力相關成本降低了 50%。同時，我們有意優先對面臨違約風險的借款人進行最有影響力的直接催收工作。這種平衡的方法，在加強拖欠管理的同時實現了日常服務的自動化，幫助我們將拖欠率從一天減少到逐年降低 15%。

Autopay enrolment continues to rise as well, with more than 93% of new loans now enrolled at origination, the highest level in two years. Overall, portfolio-wide autopay exceeded 80% for the first time, up more than 300 basis points year over year. These improvements reflect our commitment to exceptional customer experiences while driving efficiency and better credit outcomes for both borrowers and lenders. Servicing may not be the flashiest part of lending, but at Upstart, we're turning it into a competitive differentiator that creates value for all stakeholders.

自動付款的登記率也持續上升，目前超過 93% 的新貸款在發放時就已登記，達到兩年來的最高水準。整體來看，投資組合自動支付首次超過 80%，較去年同期成長超過 300 個基點。這些改進反映了我們對卓越客戶體驗的承諾，同時為借款人和貸款人提高效率並帶來更好的信貸結果。服務可能不是貸款中最引人注目的部分，但在 Upstart，我們將其轉變為為所有利害關係人創造價值的競爭優勢。

2024 was an exceptional year for the funding supply in our business and sets us up well for 2025. We saw increased commitments from our partners in private credit, as well as a growing roster of lending partners active on our platform.

2024 年對於我們業務的資金供應來說是特別的一年，為我們 2025 年做好了良好的準備。我們看到私人信貸合作夥伴的承諾不斷增加，並且我們平台上活躍的貸款合作夥伴名單也在增加。

In Q4, we upsized commitments with longstanding capital partners, increasing these commitments by a total of $1.3 billion. We also closed a $150 million personal loan warehouse facility. These wins underscore the confidence our capital partners have in our platform.

第四季度，我們增加了與長期資本合作夥伴的承諾，總計增加了 13 億美元。我們也關閉了價值 1.5 億美元的個人貸款倉儲設施。這些勝利凸顯了我們的資本合作夥伴對我們平台的信心。

2024 also marked the return of lenders to our platform with our bank and credit union partners continuing to expand their loan volumes, given improved liquidity, and confidence in the Upstart platform. Q4 originations with our lending partners grew 30% quarter over quarter and 76% year over year.

2024 年也標誌著貸款人重返我們的平台，鑑於流動性的提高和對 Upstart 平台的信心，我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴繼續擴大貸款量。我們與貸款合作夥伴在第四季的貸款發放量較上季成長 30%，年增 76%。

We also strengthened our balance sheet considerably in the second half of the year by refinancing convertible debt due in 2026, as well as raising almost $500 million to improve our cash position and liquidity for our anticipated growth in 2025 and beyond.

我們也在下半年透過再融資 2026 年到期的可轉換債務大大增強了我們的資產負債表，並籌集近 5 億美元來改善我們的現金狀況和流動性，以實現我們預期的 2025 年及以後的增長。

As we begin the new year, I want to share my priorities for Upstart in 2025. Number one, 10x our leadership in AI. I want to dramatically increase our pace of model innovation this year. This means strengthening the team, improving the infrastructure, streamlining the processes, and accelerating the growth in our proprietary training data. This goal is number one for a reason.

在新的一年開始之際，我想分享我對 Upstart 在 2025 年的計畫。第一，我們在人工智慧領域的領導地位提高了 10 倍。我希望今年能夠大幅加快我們的模式創新步伐。這意味著加強團隊，改善基礎設施，簡化流程，並加速我們專有訓練資料的成長。這個目標之所以位居第一是有原因的。

Number two, prepare a funding supply for rapid growth. We can strengthen our funding partnerships with both investors and lenders by delivering high quality, reliable loans across all of our asset classes. In 2025, I want to take steps towards building the largest yield factory in the world.

第二，做好快速成長的資金供給。我們可以透過在所有資產類別中提供高品質、可靠的貸款來加強與投資者和貸方的融資合作夥伴關係。2025年，我想朝著建造世界上最大的產量工廠的目標邁進。

Number three, return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year. We aim once again to be the unique company that combines high growth and profits. We're on the verge of doing just that.

第三，下半年恢復GAAP淨收入獲利。我們的目標再次是成為一家兼具高成長與高利潤的獨特公司。我們即將實現這個目標。

And number four, giant leaps toward best rates, best process for all. We started rapidly down this path in the second half of 2024, and we want to make even bigger strides in 2025. Success in this endeavor will make Upstart invaluable for those who partner with us, and it will present a real challenge for those who choose otherwise.

第四，朝最優惠利率和最佳流程邁進。我們從 2024 年下半年就開始沿著這條道路快速前進，我們希望在 2025 年取得更大的進步。這項努力的成功將使 Upstart 對與我們合作的人來說變得非常寶貴，而對選擇其他方式的人來說，這將帶來真正的挑戰。

A few thoughts as I wrap up. One of our very early Upstarters who went on to join Google's DeepMind and then eventually started his own AI venture fund, said something recently that stuck with me. Upstart is building the foundation model for credit, nobody else is even trying. This is a simple yet elegant description of Upstart. In fact, I wish I had said it.

總結一下，我有幾點想法。我們的一位早期創業家後來加入了谷歌的 DeepMind，最後創立了自己的人工智慧風險基金，他最近說的一句話讓我印象深刻。Upstart 正在建立信貸的基礎模型，其他人甚至還沒有嘗試。這是對 Upstart 簡單而優雅的描述。事實上，我希望我已經說過了。

But if you're a believer in the transformational power of AI, it's undeniable that the trillions of dollars of credit origination each year represent a clear and obvious opportunity for AI to improve the lives of people everywhere. While many rightfully worry about whether AI will ultimately be good or bad for humanity, AI enabled lending is undeniably a winner for the American family.

但如果你相信人工智慧的變革力量，那麼不可否認的是，每年數兆美元的信貸發放為人工智慧改善世界各地人民的生活提供了一個明顯的機會。儘管許多人擔心人工智慧最終會對人類有利還是不利，但不可否認的是，人工智慧貸款對美國家庭來說是一個利好。

A few weeks ago, we Upstarters gathered in San Diego to kick off 2025 with our second annual Upstart Live conference. The theme of the event was Game Changers, and we spent a lot of time talking about what it will take to create a generational company, a destination for credit unlike any other in the world.

幾週前，我們 Upstarters 齊聚聖地牙哥，以第二屆 Upstart Live 會議拉開 2025 年的序幕。活動的主題是“遊戲規則改變者”，我們花了很多時間討論如何創建一家代際公司，一個與世界上任何其他信貸目的地都不同的公司。

2025 is mostly about taking giant leaps toward the best rate and best process for all across each of our products. This is an incredibly challenging goal, but it's realistically within our grasp. We believe success at offering the best rate and best process to all will create a brand and a company for the ages.

2025 年的主要目標是向我們每種產品的最佳速度和最佳流程邁出巨大的一步。這是一個極具挑戰性的目標，但我們確實可以實現。我們相信，成功地為所有人提供最優惠的價格和最佳的流程將會創造出一個經久不衰的品牌和公司。

On May 14, we'll host an event we're calling Upstart AI Day for investors and analysts in New York City, where we'll provide an in-depth look at our technology, our business model, and the incredible opportunity, the combination of the two unlocks. This event is a great opportunity to connect with more of our management team and gain deeper insight into what we're building and how it sets us apart.

5 月 14 日，我們將在紐約為投資者和分析師舉辦一場名為「Upstart AI Day」的活動，在活動上我們將深入探討我們的技術、商業模式以及兩者結合所帶來的不可思議的機會。這次活動是一個很好的機會，可以與更多的管理團隊成員建立聯繫，並更深入地了解我們正在建立的內容以及它如何使我們與眾不同。

Thank you, and I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our 2024 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

謝謝，我想把時間交給我們的財務長桑傑 (Sanjay)，來介紹我們 2024 年的財務表現和指引。桑傑？

Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of our participants for sharing some of your time with us today.

謝謝，戴夫，也感謝所有參與者今天與我們分享時間。

We are encouraged to be emerging from 2024 with good momentum, having navigated what was an otherwise challenging environment for much of the past year. At the beginning of last year, we set out some ambitious financial objectives. Turn around the growth trajectory of the business, continue to scale up our committed capital base, reduce the size and improve the performance of our own balance sheet, and return to adjusted EBITDA profitability.

我們很高興看到，在過去一年的大部分時間裡，我們度過了充滿挑戰的環境，並帶著良好的勢頭迎接 2024 年。去年年初，我們制定了一些雄心勃勃的財務目標。扭轉業務的成長軌跡，繼續擴大我們的承諾資本基礎，減少我們自己的資產負債表規模並改善其表現，並恢復調整後的 EBITDA 獲利能力。

Our wish list consisted only of a stable macro environment. As we look back on the year, we are pleased with our report card versus our [Nader] in Q1 of 2024. By the fourth quarter, originations were up 86%. Revenue from fees were up 44%. The amount of loans on our balance sheet fell by about 25%. Quarterly net interest income flipped from negative $10 million to $20 million. Fixed costs were largely controlled, and we closed the year with two successive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA.

我們的願望清單只包括一個穩定的宏觀環境。回顧這一年，我們對 2024 年第一季與 [Nader] 相比的成績單感到滿意。截至第四季度，貸款發放量增加了 86%。費用收入成長了44%。我們資產負債表上的貸款金額下降了約25%。季度淨利息收入從負1000萬美元變為2000萬美元。固定成本基本上受到控制，我們在年末連續兩個季度實現了正調整後 EBITDA。

The macro did indeed remain largely steady over the back half of the year from a credit default perspective, even showing recent signs of improvement since attaining peak default in this sometime last spring, as reflected in our published macro index, the UMI.

從信用違約的角度來看，宏觀經濟在下半年確實基本上保持穩定，甚至自去年春季某個時候達到違約高峰以來顯示出近期改善的跡象，這反映在我們發布的宏觀指數 UMI 中。

This welcome break from the consistently degrading environment of the prior two years allowed some of our more recent model improvements to see the light of day, giving us good momentum on conversion winds over the last two quarters of the year. Our conversion rate in Q4 was at its highest level in nearly three years.

與前兩年持續惡化的環境相比，這一令人欣喜的突破使我們最近的一些模型改進得以付諸實踐，並使我們在今年最後兩個季度的轉換風方面獲得了良好的勢頭。我們第四季的轉換率達到了近三年來的最高水準。

Additionally, as of year-end, all of the recent credit priced on our platform on behalf of lenders and investors was on track to meet return targets, giving our funding partners increasing confidence to continue leaning into our marketplace with their supply of lending capital.

此外，截至年底，我們平台上代表貸方和投資者定價的所有近期信貸均有望達到回報目標，這使我們的融資合作夥伴越來越有信心繼續透過其貸款資本供應進入我們的市場。

With this as context, here are some financial highlights from the fourth quarter of 2024, which exceeded our guidance across virtually all metrics.

在此背景下，以下是 2024 年第四季的一些財務亮點，幾乎所有指標都超出了我們的預期。

Revenue from fees was $199 million up 30% year over year and 19% sequentially, partially from the aforementioned model enhancements and partially from a combination of lower UMI and last fall's rate cuts working their way into our platform pricing.

費用收入為 1.99 億美元，比去年同期增長 30%，比上一季增長 19%，部分原因是前文提到的模型增強，部分原因是 UMI 降低和去年秋季的降息對我們的平台定價產生了影響。

Net interest income was almost $20 million as we've now mostly worked off underperforming older vintages, and as the falling UMI is increasingly reflected in improving fair value marks. Taken together, net revenue for Q4 came in at approximately $219 million up 56% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter.

淨利息收入接近 2,000 萬美元，因為我們現在主要處理表現不佳的舊年份債券，並且 UMI 下降越來越多地反映在公允價值分數的提高中。整體來看，第四季淨收入約為 2.19 億美元，年增 56%，季增 35%。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform was approximately 246,000, up 89% from the prior year and 31% sequentially. And representing 162,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of approximately $8580 was up from $8400 in the prior quarter, reflecting continued model improvements that allowed us to approve higher loan amounts.

我們平台的貸款交易量約為 246,000 筆，比上年增長 89%，比上一季增長 31%。並代表162,000名新借款人。平均貸款額約為 8580 美元，高於上一季的 8400 美元，這反映出模型的持續改進使我們能夠批准更高的貸款額。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 61% in Q4, flat versus the prior quarter. Despite a marginally lower take rate than Q3, margins were supported by the strength of our conversion funnel, which reinforced our customer acquisition efficiency, as well as an improving cost to service borrowers.

我們的貢獻利潤率是一項非公認會計準則指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的變動成本佔費用收入的百分比，第四季度的貢獻利潤率為 61%，與上一季持平。儘管接受率略低於第三季度，但我們強勁的轉換管道支撐了利潤率，這增強了我們的客戶獲取效率，並降低了服務借款人的成本。

GAAP operating expenses were roughly $224 million in Q4, up 8% sequentially from Q3. Expenses that are considered variable relating to borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing, were up 19% sequentially, in line with the growth of the corresponding fee revenue base.

第四季 GAAP 營業費用約 2.24 億美元，季增 8%。與借款人獲取、驗證和服務相關的可變費用環比增長 19%，與相應費用收入基數的增長保持一致。

Fixed expenses were marginally up by 3% versus Q3 due to continued catch-up accruals for expenses that were not being incurred earlier in the year at our lower volumes, some of which will be temporary in nature. You can expect that we will continue to pursue tight fixed expense management as a core principle of how we manage our business.

固定費用較第三季小幅上漲 3%，因為我們繼續追補今年稍早在業務量較低時未發生的費用，其中一些費用是暫時的。您可以期待，我們將繼續推行嚴格的固定費用管理作為我們業務管理的核心原則。

Altogether, Q4 GAAP net loss was $2.8 million well ahead of expectation and reflecting the outperformance on the top line against our steady margins and fixed cost base. Adjusted EBITDA was $39 million also scaling nicely in accordance with our operating leverage and positive for the second consecutive quarter. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.26 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $116 million.

整體而言，第四季 GAAP 淨虧損為 280 萬美元，遠高於預期，反映了我們穩定的利潤率和固定成本基礎下的營收優異表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,900 萬美元，也與我們的經營槓桿一致，連續第二季實現正成長。根據稀釋加權平均股數 1.16 億美元計算，調整後每股收益為 0.26 美元。

We completed the full year with net revenue of approximately $637 million up 24% from 2023, a contribution margin of 60%. And a positive adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 million representing a 2% adjusted EBITDA margin versus a negative margin of 3% a year earlier.

我們全年淨收入約 6.37 億美元，較 2023 年成長 24%，貢獻利潤率為 60%。調整後 EBITDA 為正 1,060 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 2%，而去年同期為負 3%。

We ended the year with $806 million of loans on balance sheet, consisting of $703 million of loans held directly and $103 million from the consolidation of a securitization deal in which we retain minimal economic exposure.

截至年底，我們的資產負債表上有 8.06 億美元的貸款，其中包括直接持有的 7.03 億美元貸款和透過證券化交易合併獲得的 1.03 億美元，在該交易中我們保留了最低的經濟風險。

The $703 million of loans held directly is down 28% from the prior year but rose sequentially from $537 million in Q3, as the surge of borrower volume outstripped our expectations for the quarter. We view this to be a short term timing issue. Rising borrower volumes are the signal for us to put in place the next set of capital arrangements, which we are now well down the path toward.

直接持有的 7.03 億美元貸款較上年下降 28%，但較第三季度的 5.37 億美元環比增長，因為借款人數量的激增超過了我們對本季度的預期。我們認為這是一個短期時機問題。借款人數量的增加是我們實施下一套資本安排的訊號，目前我們已經朝著這個方向前進。

Our objective remains to continue reducing the amount of loans held directly on our balance sheet as the year progresses. The $103 million of consolidated loans are from a securitization deal completed back in 2023 from which we retain a total net exposure of only $16 million.

我們的目標仍然是隨著時間的推移繼續減少直接記在資產負債表上的貸款金額。1.03 億美元的合併貸款來自 2023 年完成的證券化交易，其中我們僅保留了 1,600 萬美元的總淨敞口。

Our unrestricted cash position also strengthened as we ended the year at $788 million up from $445 million in the prior quarter, and reflecting the proceeds from two convertible debt issuances that we did in the back half of last year.

我們的無限制現金狀況也得到了加強，年底時達到 7.88 億美元，高於上一季的 4.45 億美元，這反映了我們去年下半年發行兩次可轉換債券的收益。

As we gear up for the year ahead, we will strive for the following objectives and plan against the following baseline assumptions. A relatively stable macro environment and a constant upstart macro index, no assumption of any rate cuts. A historical pace of modelling winds and conversion gains that will drive the majority of our growth.

在為新的一年做好準備時，我們將努力實現以下目標，並根據以下基準假設制定計劃。相對穩定的宏觀環境和不斷上升的宏觀指數，不存在任何降息的假設。建模風和轉換收益的歷史步伐將推動我們大部分的成長。

Relatively stable contribution margins, although our efforts to grow in the primer borrower segments, if successful, may put some downward pressure on average margins and take rates. Continued availability of third party funding as we scale platform volume. Continued fixed cost containment and continued pruning of the loans held directly on balance sheets.

貢獻利潤率相對穩定，儘管我們在主要藉款人領域實現成長的努力（如果成功）可能會對平均利潤率和利率造成一些下行壓力。隨著我們擴大平台規模，我們將繼續提供第三方資金。繼續控制固定成本並繼續削減直接記入資產負債表的貸款。

Additionally, as we complete a shift from multi-year over to one year equity grants, we expect to see a negative impact on stock-based compensation expense. While one year grants will generally result in lower economic dilution by aligning calculated amounts with the current stock price, they will incur a higher accounting charge than older grants, which are typically expensed at the lower historical prices.

此外，隨著我們完成從多年期到一年期股權授予的轉變，我們預計這將對股票薪酬費用產生負面影響。雖然一年期授予通常會通過將計算金額與當前股票價格相一致而導致較低的經濟稀釋，但它們將比舊的授予產生更高的會計費用，而舊的授予通常按較低的歷史價格作為費用。

With these items as context and with a reminder that the first quarter is typically our seasonally slowest quarter. For Q1 of 2025, we are expecting total revenues of approximately $200 million consisting of revenue from fees of $185 million and net interest income of approximately positive $15 million. Contribution margin of approximately 57%. Net income of approximately negative $20 million. Adjusted net income of approximately positive $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $27 million. With a basic weighted average share count of approximately 95 million shares and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 105 million shares.

以這些項目為背景，並提醒我們第一季通常是我們季節性最慢的季度。對於 2025 年第一季度，我們預計總收入約為 2 億美元，其中包括 1.85 億美元的費用收入和約 1,500 萬美元的淨利息收入。貢獻利潤率約為57%。淨收入約為負2000萬美元。調整後淨收入約正1600萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 約 2700 萬美元。基本加權平均股數約 9,500 萬股，稀釋加權平均股數約 1.05 億股。

For the full year of 2025, we are expecting total revenues of approximately $1 billion consisting of revenue from fees of $920 million and net interest income of approximately $80 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 18%. And we expect GAAP net income to be at least break even for the year.

到 2025 年全年，我們預計總收入約為 10 億美元，其中包括 9.2 億美元的費用收入和約 8,000 萬美元的淨利息收入。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 18%。我們預計今年的 GAAP 淨收入至少能夠達到收支平衡。

Thanks to all once again for joining us on this call. To the Upstart employees, profound thanks to you for all your efforts and contributions as we've navigated this past year together. Excited about 2025, I am.

再次感謝大家參加本次電話會議。對於 Upstart 的員工們，深深感謝你們在我們共同度過的過去一年所做的一切努力和貢獻。我對 2025 年充滿期待。

Operator, over to you.

接線員，交給你了。

(Operator Instructions) Kyle Peterson, Needham.

（操作員指示）凱爾·彼得森，尼德姆。

I want to start off on funding. You guys mentioned seems like there's a good pipeline you guys are working down. How are you guys thinking about the mix of funding, moving forward between -- whether it's committed capital, and some of the outwill buyers or depositories, how should we think about, the deployment of additional funding in 2025?

我想先從資金方面入手。你們提到似乎你們正在建立一條好的管道。你們是如何考慮未來的資金組合的——無論是承諾資本，還是一些自願買家或存管機構，我們應該如何考慮在 2025 年部署額外資金？

Hey Kyle, thanks for joining. This is Sanjay. I would say that our medium term objectives here remain the same. We've talked in the past of having, somewhere north of 50% of our capital committed and the balance, some allocation between bank and credit union, balance sheet capital and, maybe at will. ABS and hedge fund type capital.

嘿 Kyle，謝謝你的加入。這是桑傑。我想說我們的中期目標不變。我們過去曾談到過，我們將投入 50% 以上的資本，將餘額在銀行和信用社、資產負債表資本之間進行分配，或許是隨意的。ABS及避險基金類資本。

I think that's still a good medium term target for us. Obviously in the short term we're seeing some expansion of borrower volumes, and we will look to grow, capital in the most expeditious way possible and oftentimes that involves, striking some large deals with counterparties. So that's probably what we have lined up in the near future, but I think our medium term. Objectives remain the same.

我認為這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的中期目標。顯然，在短期內，我們看到借款人數量有所擴大，我們將尋求以最快捷的方式增加資本，而這通常涉及與交易對手達成一些大筆交易。所以這可能是我們在不久的將來要做的事情，但我認為這是我們的中期計劃。目標不變。

And then, maybe just a follow up on, the balance sheet, appreciate the commentary that you guys plan on reducing, what will be held on the balance sheet as the year goes on. How should we think about the pace of that and is there any update whether it's end of January or anything you could provide us to where the loans on balance sheet sit now and where that should sit over the next quarter or two.

然後，也許只是對資產負債表的後續關注，感謝你們計劃減少的評論，隨著時間的推移，資產負債表上將會保留什麼。我們應該如何看待這一進程，是否有任何更新信息，無論是 1 月底還是任何您能提供的信息，告訴我們目前資產負債表上的貸款情況以及未來一兩個季度的貸款情況。

Yeah, Kyle, we've talked in the past similarly about, there being a bit of a timing challenge between spurts of growth on the borrower side and, the ability to put in place a capital agreements to match it and, that's sort of what we're facing right now. We've had obviously good expansion on the borrower side in Q4. So I would say that's quarter to quarter and we'll look to create the capital sources to take those loans from us and we're in conversations about that right now, but it's more of a quarter to quarter activity than a month to month one.

是的，凱爾，我們過去也談過類似的問題，在藉款人的成長高峰和製定相應的資本協議的能力之間存在一些時間上的挑戰，這就是我們現在面臨的問題。我們在第四季度的借款人方面顯然取得了良好的擴張。所以我想說這是按季度進行的，我們將尋求創造資本來源來從我們這裡獲取這些貸款，我們現在正在討論這個問題，但這更多的是一個按季度進行的活動，而不是按月進行的活動。

Simon Clinch, Redburn Atlantic.

西蒙‧克林奇 (Simon Clinch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

I was wondering if we could just start with your comments, on the borrower demand. Could you just help break down sort of what really drove the upside that you saw this quarter? Was it all to do with the model or was there, just with borrowers being brought down beneath that 36% rate cap I just curious as to how that breaks down.

我想知道我們是否可以從您對借款人需求的評論開始。您能否幫忙分析本季業績上漲的真正原因？這是否與模型有關，或者只是藉款人的利率被降至 36% 的利率上限以下，我只是好奇這是如何分解的。

Hey Simon, yeah, in terms of the increase in approvability and conversion, some amount of it was the improvements to model accuracy that Dave alluded to some of them. I don't know, as a rough maybe rule of thumb, you could maybe think of it as half coming from that, and some amount also coming from some combination of -- it's UMI has subsided a little bit. And I guess corresponding default rates have moderated a little bit. That's been reflected in platform pricing and the rate cuts we saw last fall, we've always talked about them having some delay in how they work into our platform pricing, but some of that is being reflected now as well. So some combination of better technology, a little moderation in default rates, and some rate cuts from last fall all conspiring to lower APRs on the platform.

嘿，西蒙，是的，就可批准性和轉換率的提高而言，其中一部分是模型準確性的提高，戴夫提到了其中的一些。我不知道，根據粗略的經驗法則，您可能可以認為一半來自於此，一部分也來自於某種組合——它的 UMI 已經減弱。我想相應的違約率已經有所下降。這已經反映在平台定價和去年秋季我們看到的降息中，我們一直在談論它們在我們的平台定價中發揮作用時有所延遲，但現在其中一些也得到了反映。因此，技術的進步、違約率的略微降低以及去年秋季以來的一些降息，都有助於降低該平台的 APR。

And just a quick follow up actually, thanks for all the color around the framework with which you're thinking about the macro and your guidance for the year. I'm curious as to how much Lex or I guess your approach to managing that outlet, given the -- there's still plenty of uncertainty, there's certain people in my shop that think that rates might even be going up at the end of the year. How are you planning for those various eventualities, within your business?

實際上，我只是想快速跟進一下，感謝您對宏觀思考框架的詳細闡述以及您對今年的指導。我很好奇 Lex 或者你管理該網點的方法，考慮到仍然存在很多不確定性，我店裡的一些人認為利率甚至可能在年底上漲。您如何針對您的業務中可能發生的各種情況進行規劃？

Well, we take, I guess what we think of as a conservative position. We don't assume that rates are going to go down or up for that matter. We don't assume that UMI is going to go up or down. So we think that's the most prudent approach to take. We do build conservatism into our model such that they're targeting just a modest amount of overperformance if things stay as they are. And we think that's the best that we can do that having the right tools to have the models adjust themselves very quickly to any changes is actually very powerful. I talked about that a bit in my remarks.

嗯，我想我們採取的是我們認為的保守立場。我們並不認為利率會下降或上升。我們並不認為 UMI 會上升或下降。因此我們認為這是最謹慎的做法。我們確實在模型中融入了保守主義，這樣，如果情況保持現狀，他們就只瞄準適度的超額表現。我們認為，我們能做的最好的事情就是擁有正確的工具，讓模型快速適應任何變化，這實際上非常強大。我在我的發言中稍微談了這一點。

And I think that's our view on it, which is, we can't accommodate any potential future that might be out there and assume. Our volumes would never drop, etc. But generally speaking, we're moving toward a place where our models are more resilient. We can respond even quicker and more accurately or precisely as is necessary based on what's going on out there, and I think this is a big win for our lending partners and investors because it just, it means better results for them.

我認為這是我們對此的看法，即我們無法容納任何可能存在的潛在未來並進行假設。我們的銷售永遠不會下降等等。根據現場發生的情況，我們可以根據情況更快、更準確或更精確地做出反應，我認為這對我們的貸款合作夥伴和投資者來說是一個巨大的勝利，因為這意味著他們可以獲得更好的結果。

And Simon, just a reminder that the impact of -- just a reminder that the impact of rate movements themselves are relatively modest certainly compared to changes in our default index.

西蒙，需要提醒的是，與我們的違約指數的變化相比，利率變動本身的影響肯定相對較小。

Peter Christiansen, CITI.

花旗集團的 Peter Christiansen。

Nice turnaround, guys. Sanjay, just curious, if thinking about forming, new sources capital, throughout the area, what's your view on risk retention? A lot of emphasis there in the area and at least what you're seeing from market participants and the health of the market on the funding side. Do you think there's more appetite for outside partners to think about taking on more risk here? Thanks.

很好的轉變，夥計們。桑傑，只是好奇，如果考慮在整個地區形成新的資本來源，您對風險保留有何看法？該領域受到高度重視，至少您可以從市場參與者和融資方面的市場健康狀況中看到這一點。您是否認為外部合作夥伴更願意考慮承擔更多風險？謝謝。

Hey Pete, just to clarify you're asking about, risk retention in our committed capital arrangements or just more generally in the securitization markets?

嘿，皮特，我只是想澄清一下，你問的是我們的投入資本安排中的風險保留，還是更普遍地講是證券化市場中的風險保留？

Yeah, that and both -- (multiple speakers).

是的，那兩個——（多位發言者）。

Okay, I guess with respect to the capital arrangements we're making our view remains unchanged. We have a certain, target percentage of our platforms that we want underpinned by committed capital, and in those arrangements we have said that we will put some single digit percentage of the total capital at risk from our own balance sheet. And I think those rough ratios continue to remain true.

好的，我想對於我們正在製定的資本安排，我們的觀點保持不變。我們希望我們的平台中有一定比例的目標比例能夠得到承諾資本的支持，並且在這些安排中，我們表示將把我們自己資產負債表中總資本的某個個位數百分比置於風險之中。我認為這些粗略的比例仍然正確。

I think more broadly in the market there is definitely an increasing appetite for risk both in the securitization markets and just more broadly with, loan asset purchasing, and so I think we're starting to see some parts of that market heat up a little bit, not yet back quite back to the fever pitch it was maybe a few years ago, but there's definitely a lot of conversations and traffic and engagement happening even at the -- would say the risk part of the of the debt stack, so that's encouraging.

我認為，從更廣泛的意義上講，市場對風險的興趣肯定在不斷增加，無論是在證券化市場，還是在更廣泛的貸款資產購買方面，因此，我認為我們開始看到該市場的某些部分有所升溫，雖然還沒有完全回到幾年前的狂熱程度，但即使在債務堆棧的風險部分，也肯定有很多對話、流量和參與，所以這是令人鼓舞的。

And just as a follow up, it looks like for our acquisition cost, I guess as a percentage of principal went up a little uptick a little bit, just curious, how you're thinking about that using, external network partners or do you think that Upstart brand is, has gotten to a point where it can really attract borrowers onto itself. Thanks.

作為後續問題，看起來我們的收購成本，我想本金的百分比稍微上升了一點，只是好奇，您是如何考慮使用外部網絡合作夥伴的，或者您是否認為 Upstart 品牌已經達到了真正吸引借款人的地步。謝謝。

Hey, this is Dave. We've had over a long period of time, a pretty amazing either consistency or even dropping in acquisition cost per loan. So we feel very good about that the economics, the unit economics of our loans are exceptional. So there'll be a little variances from quarter to quarter, but if you looked over the long trajectory.

嘿，這是戴夫。我們在很長一段時間內都取得了相當驚人的成績，每筆貸款的收購成本要么保持穩定，要么下降。因此，我們對我們的貸款的經濟效益、單位經濟效益感到非常滿意。因此，每個季度之間會存在一些差異，但如果你看一下長期軌跡。

Through enormous growth we've actually reduced, the cost of acquisition per loan. So we have no concerns on that front whatsoever. Generally speaking, we have opportunities to dial up marketing and dial down, contribution per loan when that makes sense. And but it's an area where I feel like the team has performed exceedingly well for many years.

透過巨大的成長，我們實際上降低了每筆貸款的獲取成本。所以我們對此完全沒有擔憂。一般來說，當情況合理時，我們有機會增加行銷並減少每筆貸款的貢獻。但我覺得這是球隊多年來表現非常出色的領域。

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊‧埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

Terrific quarter. The fully automated loans keep moving up. I think now they sit at about 91%. Those seem to have a lot of knock-on benefits for the model. I'm just curious about your updated thoughts about is there a ceiling there, how close we are we to the max level, or is there still a lot of room to run in terms of automation?

非常棒的一個季度。全自動化貸款持續上升。我認為現在他們的比例約為 91%。這些似乎會為該模型帶來許多連鎖效益。我只是好奇你最近的想法，那裡是否存在上限，我們距離最高水平還有多遠，或者在自動化方面是否還有很大的發展空間？

I think there, I guess you could say the ceiling's 100%, but there'll always be some fraudulent activity, etc. Or just imperfections that mean we'll never get to 100%.

我認為，我想你可以說上限是 100%，但總是會存在一些詐欺活動等等。

I would say a couple years ago we never would have expected to get to 90%. So I do think that we're happy with where it is. There's a team working constantly to improve on the models that unlock instant approvals. So I think it can go higher. We're also, I mean, a lot of what we're doing is applying some of the same techniques. To the other products, not just the personal loan products. So there's a lot more wins to be had in automation and instant decisioning.

我想說，幾年前我們從未想過自己能達到 90%。所以我確實認為我們對現狀感到滿意。有一個團隊正在不斷致力於改進解鎖即時批准的模型。所以我認為它可以走得更高。我的意思是，我們所做的很多事情也都應用了一些相同的技術。對於其他產品，不僅僅是個人貸款產品。因此，自動化和即時決策可以帶來更多好處。

So yeah, I don't know how high it can go. I think in the personal loan product it can still go higher though how much is to be determined. It really Is ultimately a fraction of how much we can attract, true applicants, true borrowers to the platform versus, the bad guys out there that we have to keep away and that that dynamic will always be there.

是的，我不知道它能達到多高。我認為個人貸款產品還可以繼續上漲，不過具體金額還有待確定。這實際上最終只是我們能夠吸引的真正的申請者、真正的借款人到這個平台的一小部分，而我們必須避開那些壞人，而這種動態將永遠存在。

And a follow up for me as we look out over the next few years, can you help us think through like a hypothetical pie chart of your loan mix, in terms of personal loans, small dollar loans, auto HELOC, in terms of originations, how should we think about the model evolving now that you're getting a little traction with these other, verticals, these other, loan types.

展望未來幾年，我想問一下，您能否幫助我們繪製一個假設的餅圖，展示您的貸款組合，包括個人貸款、小額貸款、汽車房屋淨值信貸額度 (HELOC)，就貸款發放而言，既然您在這些其他垂直行業、其他貸款類型方面取得了一些進展，我們應該如何看待模型的發展？

Yeah, I -- we certainly don't have a perfect lens onto that other than to say our core business, as you can see today, is growing very rapidly. It's a category itself that is growing very rapidly because it's personal loans have high utility for consumers. So it's a little bit tricky. We also believe our market share is growing very quickly in personal loans, and so when you have those two dynamics growing market share within the category and the category itself growing quickly. It's hard to put any cap on what personal loans can do, but on the other side, of course, home lending, auto lending are both much larger categories generally speaking, so there's a huge amount of headroom there.

是的，我們當然沒有完美的視角來看待這個問題，只能說我們的核心業務，正如您今天所看到的，正在快速成長。這個類別本身正在成長非常迅速，因為它的個人貸款對消費者有很高的實用性。所以這有點棘手。我們也相信，我們的市場份額在個人貸款方面正在快速增長，因此，當你擁有這兩個動力時，該類別的市場份額就會不斷增長，而該類別本身也會快速增長。很難對個人貸款的規模設限，但另一方面，當然，房屋貸款、汽車貸款一般來說都是更大的類別，因此有很大的發展空間。

So it's a bit of a bet, and we don't know for sure. We're really happy to see the newer products growing very rapidly and we're excited to see what they'll do in 2025, but it's frankly a little bit hard to judge between them.

所以這有點像是賭博，我們還不能確定。我們非常高興看到新產品快速發展，我們也很高興看到它們在 2025 年會取得怎樣的發展，但坦白說，對它們進行判斷有點困難。

Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

瑞穗的丹‧多列夫 (Dan Dolev)。

Outstanding quarter as always. This is great. I have two quick questions. First one is on the margin. Looks like you're guiding 18%, which is huge for the year. Can you maybe walk us through some of the operating levers that you have in the model and, how should we think about the model over the medium and long term because it looks pretty good and then I have a quick follow up.

一如既往的出色季度。這太棒了。我有兩個簡單的問題。第一個是在邊緣。看起來你預期的成長目標是 18%，這對今年來說是一個很大的數字。您能否向我們介紹一下該模型中的某些操作槓桿，以及我們應該如何看待該模型的中長期前景，因為它看起來相當不錯，然後我會快速跟進。

Hey Dan, great to hear from you. We've talked in the past about the fact that we believe we have good operating leverage in our business model, and by that specifically what I mean is as the volumes increase and our fee revenue increases, we foresee relatively steady take rates and relatively steady contribution margins, meaning, a lot of that will drop from the top line very efficiently to the bottom of the P&L, and against that we're anticipating relatively stable costs.

嘿，丹，很高興收到你的來信。我們過去曾談到，我們相信我們的商業模式具有良好的經營槓桿，具體來說，我的意思是，隨著業務量的增加和費用收入的增加，我們預計收費率和貢獻利潤率會相對穩定，這意味著，其中很大一部分將非常有效地從頂線下降到損益表的底部，而我們預計成本會相對穩定。

Now that we're expanding on the top line again, we will make some investments in 2025, but they'll be modest and so I just think in general as our business grows in 2025 and beyond. We have an ability to transmit a lot of that to the bottom line, and, they've talked more generally about our ambition to be a company that's both fast growing and highly profitable, and I think this is underpins our belief in our ability to do that.

現在我們再次擴大營收，我們將在 2025 年進行一些投資，但投資規模將很小，因此我認為總體而言我們的業務將在 2025 年及以後增長。我們有能力將其中的大部分轉化為利潤，而且，他們更籠統地談到了我們成為一家快速成長、高利潤公司的雄心，我認為這鞏固了我們對實現這一目標能力的信念。

Got it. It did have a follow up, it seems like we are in some sort of a super cycle. I mean, I know, I guess that according to the Bible, the prophecy is for the fools, so I don't want you to make a prophecy, but I mean, how much legs is there to this cycle? I mean, it seems like things are getting better, incrementally better over time. Like if you had to make a bet on where we are at the cycle, that would be great. Thank you.

知道了。它確實有後續行動，看起來我們正處於某種超級循環中。我的意思是，我知道，我猜根據聖經，預言是給傻瓜的，所以我不想讓你做預言，但我的意思是，這個循環有多少腿？我的意思是，事情似乎正在變得更好，隨著時間的推移逐漸變得更好。例如，如果你必須打賭我們所處的周期位置，那就太好了。謝謝。

I don't know that I'd call it a cycle in that sense, pricing of loans on our platform are still relatively high, long term UMI is, notionally should be one and it's much higher. So I don't think and also rates are probably, at least a little bit higher than you might expect them to be on a long term normal so. That tells me, at least in terms of those inputs to our platform, which are really important and very fundamental to the price of loans that those are still elevated and I hope there's some over the next year or maybe it'll take two years that we'll see both of those things trend back toward long term normal and that would be obviously great for our business.

我不知道我是否會從這個意義上稱之為一個週期，我們平台上的貸款定價仍然相對較高，長期 UMI 理論上應該是一個週期，而且它要高得多。所以我不這麼認為，而且利率可能至少會比你預期的長期正常水平高一點。這告訴我，至少就我們平台的投入而言，這些投入對於貸款價格來說確實非常重要和非常根本，而且這些投入仍然處於高位，我希望明年或者可能需要兩年的時間，我們會看到這兩件事都趨向於長期正常，這顯然對我們的業務有好處。

We've been able to do -- what we've been able to do still with these very high prices. But like we said, we don't sit around waiting for interest rates to go down or you and I to go down. Most of what we do here is just fundamental improvements to risk separation and automation, and those deliver growth. So I think we'll just take the macro wins when we can get them, and otherwise we will keep cranking away on more accurate models.

在價格如此高昂的情況下，我們仍然能夠做到。但就像我們說的那樣，我們不會坐等利率下降，或等待你和我下降。我們在這裡所做的大部分工作只是對風險分離和自動化進行根本性的改進，這些改進可以帶來成長。因此我認為，當我們能夠獲得宏觀勝利時，我們就會抓住它，否則我們將繼續努力開發更精確的模型。

David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

David Scharf，公民 JMP。

Maybe one specific and one a little more open ended, on the specific side, Sanjay, obviously there's -- we know how much operating leverage there is in a fee-based model like this. There also seems to be a tremendous amount of leverage in just the reversal and net interest income in the guide.

也許有一個具體的，還有一個更開放一些的，在具體的方面，桑傑，顯然我們知道在這種基於費用的模式下有多少經營槓桿。指南中的逆轉和淨利息收入似乎也存在巨大的槓桿作用。

Can you tell us, are you factoring in. Material fair value write-ups. Is any of that included in the, NII guide for '25 or is part of it just holding fewer loans on the balance sheet and having less mark to market growth?

你能告訴我們，你是否考慮到了這一點？重大公允價值增記。這些內容是否都包含在 '25 年的 NII 指南中，還是其中的一部分只是在資產負債表上持有較少的貸款並且按市場價格計算的增長較少？

Yeah, hey, David, great to hear from you. Let's see, our NII guide for 2025, I would say is the majority of that is just a performing set of assets on the balance sheet. There may be some incrementally more fair value marks, or maybe put another way, the UMI has improved. That signals an improvement in the expected performance of the assets, and I don't think we've taken all of that.

是的，嘿，大衛，很高興收到你的來信。讓我們來看看，我們的 2025 年 NII 指南，我想說其中大部分只是資產負債表上的一組表現良好的資產。可能會有一些逐步增加的公允價值標記，或者換句話說，UMI 已經得到改善。這表明資產預期表現有所改善，但我認為我們還沒有完全利用這些資產。

Really yet and so some more of that should trickle into 2025 if the macro holds. But I think more than anything we're signaling that, look, we on our balance sheet. I had, some underperforming vintages both in the auto R&D that we originated a couple of years ago as well as in our core, and I think as of Q4 we've largely moved past it and now we're looking at a balance sheet that should be expected to perform and produce returns as any investor would expect as well. So that's the majority of the story.

確實如此，如果宏觀經濟保持不變的話，更多的成長將持續到 2025 年。但我認為，我們最想表明的是，看看我們的資產負債表。在我們幾年前發起的汽車研發以及核心業務中，有些年份表現不佳，我認為從第四季度開始，我們基本上已經擺脫了這一困境，現在我們正在查看資產負債表，它應該能夠正常運作並產生回報，正如任何投資者所期望的那樣。這就是故事的大部分內容。

Yeah, no, I understood. So sounds pretty much consistent with most consumer lenders with the peak losses in the rearview mirror. Hey, little more open ended, and you may have partially answered this in the last question, both the press release and I think Dave's opening comments referenced Q1 of 2022, as a reference point, that was a high water mark.

是啊，不，我明白了。這聽起來與大多數消費貸款機構的經驗非常一致，損失已成過去。嘿，再開放一點，你可能已經在最後一個問題中部分回答了這個問題，新聞稿和我認為戴夫的開場白都提到了 2022 年第一季度作為參考點，這是一個高水位。

I think it was about $4.5 billion of funded principal, I mean, 2.5 times, what you had this quarter, and that was just with personal loans. I think the conversion rate at the peak got above 24%. And as we just try to think about how much contribution margin even the business can scale to once again. I'm looking at that period, that that peak late '21, early '22.

我認為，資金到位本金約為 45 億美元，是本季的 2.5 倍，而且這還只是個人貸款。我認為高峰時的轉換率超過了 24%。我們只是試著思考一下業務可以再次擴大到多少貢獻利潤。我正在觀察那個時期，那個高峰期是在 21 年末，22 年初。

Other than the interest rate environment, is there anything else different that you could call out that could potentially signal to us or we're going to get back to that, sweet spot of an environment, whether it's just on the funding side competition.

除了利率環境之外，您還能指出其他什麼不同之處，這些不同之處可能會向我們發出訊號，或者說我們將回到最佳環境，無論是在融資方面的競爭。

I don't know if the same players you're competing against, on, Credit Karma searches and whatnot, but what is it about the current environment, that could potentially improve to get back to that level of conversion rate in quarterly funded principal amount.

我不知道您的競爭對手是否是 Credit Karma 搜尋等，但當前環境有何潛在改善，是否能讓季度籌資本金的轉換率回到該水準。

Yeah, Dave, I guess, the path back to that scale of business, I mean, the obvious answer is a drop in the risk of the environment. I guess you could proxy that with a drop in the UMI, but I also think that the path back will look different than our original path there because compared to that time, our models are dramatically stronger. I mean, a lot of that is not obvious because of the high rates and the high level of risk in the environment.

是的，戴夫，我想，回到那個業務規模的道路，我的意思是，顯而易見的答案是環境風險的下降。我想你可以用 UMI 的下降來代表這一點，但我還認為回歸的路徑將與我們原來的路徑不同，因為與那時相比，我們的模型要強大得多。我的意思是，由於利率高、環境風險高，很多情況並不明顯。

And so, as Dave said, the prices are still quite elevated, but the models themselves in terms of their ability to decision risk between relatively similar looking borrowers is dramatically better. And so I think we will not require as constructive as an environment as existed in 2022 in order to get back to that rough level of scale.

因此，正如戴夫所說，價格仍然相當高，但模型本身在相對相似的借款人之間決策風險的能力方面要好得多。因此，我認為，我們不需要像 2022 年那樣具有建設性的環境就能恢復到粗略的規模水準。

And maybe a related point is that as and when we do, our business model itself is much stronger. I think we've been clear that I do not believe our contribution margins will fall back to the level that they were back then. I think we're much more optimized in how we price and how we measure elasticity and how we manage our take rates. And so I think again for a similar size of top line business you should expect us now to have better margins and frankly a more streamlined fixed cost base or level of efficiency in terms of onboarding and servicing borrowers and even the fixed cost base beyond it.

也許相關的觀點是，當我們這樣做時，我們的商業模式本身就會變得更強大。我想我們已經明確表示，我不相信我們的貢獻利潤率會回落到那時的水平。我認為我們在定價方式、彈性衡量方式和管理收費率方面已經更加優化。因此，我再次認為，對於類似規模的營收業務，你應該期望我們現在擁有更好的利潤率，坦白說，在入職和服務借款人方面，甚至超越其範圍的固定成本基礎，擁有更精簡的固定成本基礎或效率水平。

So the only real difference beyond that is that the fact that we have undertaken a few bets that are more early stage and we expect those to contribute over time as well and there will be some period of time in which we have to incubate that. But beyond that, I think across the Board, whether you're looking at our business model or the strength of our actual underlying technology, it's pretty much better across the Board.

因此，除此之外，唯一真正的區別是，我們已經進行了一些處於早期階段的賭注，我們預計這些賭注也會隨著時間的推移而做出貢獻，並且需要一段時間來孵化它們。但除此之外，我認為從整體來看，無論是從我們的商業模式還是實際底層技術的實力來看，我們的整體情況都更好。

[Vincent tech with BTech].

[Vincent 擁有技術學士學位]。

Both are follow-ups. So, first question on the profitability guidance and so guiding for at least positive net income in [2025], trying to get a sense for how, positive that earnings could be, while you're going to be GAAP profitable, if it's something where we should be expecting EPS to continue to move alongside. Transaction volume growth or other investments that you want to make, so perhaps we should be seeing slower EPS growth in the near term relative to your transaction volume growth in the near term. Thank you.

兩者都是後續行動。因此，第一個問題是關於獲利能力指引，即在 [2025] 年至少實現正淨收入的指引，試圖了解在實現 GAAP 盈利的同時，盈利能達到怎樣的正值，如果這是我們應該預期 EPS 繼續隨之變化的事情。交易量成長或您想要進行的其他投資，因此也許我們應該看到短期內每股收益成長相對於短期內交易量成長較慢。謝謝。

Yeah, hey, Vincent, I guess, we just reiterate that in 2025 we'll be in the ballpark of break even or at least break even. So I think we expect to be, roughly in that ballpark, not dramatically ahead of it. In general, yeah, I think that you could think of our profitability as improving with scale.

是的，嘿，文森特，我想，我們只是重申，到 2025 年我們將大致實現收支平衡，或至少達到收支平衡。因此我認為我們預計會大致在這個範圍內，但不會大幅領先。總的來說，是的，我認為你可以認為我們的獲利能力隨著規模的擴大而提高。

There is a couple of mechanical things happening to the P&L. I called out one of them quickly in my script that has to do really with the accounting of stock-based expense, and the fact that we are moving from what we've previously done, which is grants approved, multi-year grants essentially. To more of a one year grant style program and that just has the impact of essentially pricing or costing the grants at a more current stock price and it increases the accounting charge of the grants.

損益表中發生了一些機械問題。我在我的腳本中很快就提到了其中之一，它實際上與股票費用的會計有關，事實上，我們正​​在改變我們以前所做的事情，即批准的贈款，基本上是多年期贈款。對於更多的為期一年的授予式計劃來說，這只會對按照更當前的股票價格對授予進行定價或計算成本產生影響，並且會增加授予的會計費用。

So that's something that I think you could think of as a one-time impact and then as we grow from the Q1 guidance we've given, which I believe is about $20 million. As the platform scales through the course of the year, we -- you should see us then grow the profitability to the point where the full year will be break even to positive.

所以我認為你可以將其視為一次性影響，然後隨著我們給出的第一季指引的增長，我相信這一影響約為 2000 萬美元。隨著平台在一年內不斷擴大規模，你會看到我們的獲利能力不斷提高，直到全年實現收支平衡。

And then second, just, another follow up on the prior discussions about your funding capacity. So if I just do the rough math in the fourth quarter of 2024, your $2.1 billion transaction volume and the $150 million of fee, if that holds, then if the guidance for 2025 and the $920 million. Of the income that's close to about $13 billion of transaction volume in 2025. So, great volumes for 2025.

其次，我們再來跟進一下先前關於您的融資能力的討論。因此，如果我對 2024 年第四季進行粗略計算，您的 21 億美元交易量和 1.5 億美元的費用，如果成立，那麼 2025 年的指導金額和 9.2 億美元。到 2025 年，交易量將接近 130 億美元。因此，2025 年的產量將會很大。

I'm wondering how much is funding availability or capacity of binding constraint on your ability, or on your transaction volume growth, if maybe we could see potentially more growth in that transaction volume if the current environment of good funding availability holds. Thank you.

我想知道，資金可用性或容量對您的能力或交易量成長的限制有多大，如果在當前良好的資金可用性環境下，我們可能會看到交易量有更大的成長。謝謝。

Yeah, Vincent, a couple of thoughts. First of all, I think your math on origination volumes for 2025 is directionally correct but maybe a little aggressive compared to what we're expecting. So it's not -- I don't think because we are expecting quite as much as $13 billion, but even at a relatively close number to that. We did make the explicit assumption and we called out the explicit assumption that most of the forecasting modelling we do is really about the borrower side of the platform, and we make the assumption that the funding will be available.

是的，文森特，我有一些想法。首先，我認為您對 2025 年發起量的計算在方向上是正確的，但與我們的預期相比可能有點激進。所以，我不認為我們會期望 130 億美元那麼多，但這是一個相對接近的數字。我們確實做出了明確的假設，我們明確指出，我們所做的大多數預測模型實際上都是關於平台的借款人方面的，並且我們假設資金將是可用的。

And every signal we have as of right now in terms of the conversations we're in and the pipeline we have suggests that we'll be able to scale the capital side in accordance with what we're able to achieve in terms of borrower volumes and improvability, that said, it's not a gating variable in any real way to our guidance. What will determine the growth of the platform really I think comes down to how successful we are on the product and the technology and the marketing side of our business in finding more, quality borrowers to approve.

就我們現在進行的對話和已有的管道而言，我們得到的每一個訊號都表明，我們將能夠根據借款人數量和可改進性方面所取得的成就來擴大資本規模，也就是說，它並不是我們指導的任何實際限制變數。我認為，真正決定平台成長的因素取決於我們在產品、技術和行銷方面的成功，以及我們在尋找更多優質借款人方面取得的進展。

There is a world in which funding does not materialize and that will constrain our growth, but I don't think infinite funding would allow us to raise that number in any way.

在某些情況下，資金無法實現，這將限制我們的成長，但我認為無限的資金無法讓我們以任何方式提高這個數字。

John Hecht, Jeffrey.

約翰·赫克特，傑弗裡。

The first one is just on the source of the volumes. Obviously, we've seen a pretty good recovery here. I'm wondering how can you give us some characteristics of how much is coming from your primary channels like Credit Karma, how much is recurring business, and then maybe where the sources for auto I know auto's through dealership network, but maybe he like and auto just more high level about the sources of that and how that mix might migrate over the course of this year.

第一個只是關於卷的來源。顯然，我們看到了相當好的復甦。我想知道您能否向我們提供一些特徵，說明有多少來自您的主要渠道，例如 Credit Karma，有多少是經常性業務，然後也許汽車的來源是我通過經銷商網絡了解的，但也許他更喜歡汽車的更高層次的來源，以及這種組合在今年將如何變化。

Sure, hey John, because a lot of our growth was conversion driven, in the core business, it hit all acquisition channels in a similar way. They just all got more productive and more efficient, so I don't think the channel skew changed much at all versus what it has been previously. And the new products while exciting, are still not at the scale where they're moving the dial on the overall numbers compared to the core business. So you just think of it as largely driven by the core business at the aggregate level with a channel mix that's relatively similar to what we've been doing in prior quarters.

當然，嘿，約翰，因為我們的很大一部分成長是由轉換驅動的，在核心業務中，它以類似的方式影響了所有的獲取管道。它們的生產力和效率都提高了，因此我認為通路偏差與以前相比並沒有發生太大變化。儘管新產品令人興奮，但與核心業務相比，它們仍未達到能夠改變整體數字的規模。因此，您可以認為它很大程度上是由整體層面的核心業務所驅動的，其通路組合與我們前幾季所做的相對相似。

And then second question, Dave, you've mentioned the small loan, the small dollar loans. It sounds like that's growing nicely. Maybe how does -- what's the mix of that now, what are the size in terms, and then is the overall intention of that to have a customer development program where you might take someone in in that program and then migrate them to different products over time.

然後是第二個問題，戴夫，你提到了小額貸款，小額美元貸款。聽起來進展不錯。也許是這樣的——現在的組合是什麼樣的，規模是怎樣的，然後它的總體意圖是有一個客戶開發計劃，你可能會在該計劃中接納某人，然後隨著時間的推移將他們遷移到不同的產品上。

Hey John, this is Dave. Yeah, for sure, smaller loans with a shorter duration, generally you're going to be able to approve more people at the margins, and so it's just generally a way to more rapidly understand and underwrite more of the US population. And so it's definitely been an accelerator in terms of just you can just think of the boundaries of the models of people that we can understand moving out more rapidly.

嘿，約翰，我是戴夫。是的，可以肯定的是，金額較小、期限較短的貸款通常能夠批准更多人申請，因此，這通常是一種更快地了解和承保更多美國人口的方式。所以，從我們可以理解的人員模式的界限來看，它絕對是一個加速器，可以更快地向外移動。

And that's the heart of that project. It is generating good economics, so it's not a loss leader for us in any sense of the word, but it is an accelerator in terms of the model's understanding, and those people can definitely move on to other products, larger personal loans or refinance a car loan, etc. And so it's definitely an acquisition strategy. We mentioned that in the fourth quarter 13% of new borrowers on Upstart were from that product itself.

這就是該專案的核心。它正在產生良好的經濟效益，所以從任何意義上來說，它對我們來說都不是虧本銷售，但從模型的理解來看，它是一個加速器，那些人肯定可以轉向其他產品，更大的個人貸款或再融資汽車貸款等。 所以這絕對是一種收購策略。我們提到，第四季度 Upstart 上 13% 的新借款人來自該產品本身。

So that's -- that means it's meaningful to us in the sense of how quickly we're bringing new people onto the platform and we're getting better and better at cross selling to other products, being able to help them on other types of borrowing. So it's all very good and the rate at which that product is growing. I think is a huge indicator for our future that we're going to be able to just underwrite and have these models understand more and more of the population.

所以，這意味著，這對我們來說很有意義，因為我們可以快速地將新用戶引入平台，而且我們在交叉銷售其他產品方面做得越來越好，能夠幫助他們進行其他類型的借貸。所以一切都非常好，而且該產品的成長速度也非常快。我認為這對我們的未來來說是一個巨大的指標，我們將能夠保證這些模型能夠了解越來越多的人群。

John, just in terms of the parameters of those loans, you're looking at terms, from 6 to 18 months, compared to our core product, which is three to five years, and, the average size of these loans is somewhere, just north of $1000, which compares to about $10,000 in our core products, so it's that scale.

約翰，僅就這些貸款的參數而言，你看的貸款期限是 6 到 18 個月，而我們的核心產品的期限是 3 到 5 年，而且這些貸款的平均規模在 1,000 美元左右，而我們的核心產品貸款金額約為 10,000 美元，所以就是這個規模。

Reggie Smith, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Congrats guys, great quarter. I wanted to just follow up on the last question. I'm not sure if you broke this out, but can you talk about, I guess if you think about your transaction value, how much of it is from the smaller dollar loans today, and it sounds like there may be a difference in conversion rate between those and the large ones maybe frame that for us as well.

恭喜大家，這是一個非常棒的季度。我只是想繼續回答最後一個問題。我不確定您是否詳細闡述了這一點，但您能否談談，我想如果您考慮您的交易價值，其中有多少來自當今的小額美元貸款，聽起來這些小額美元貸款和大額美元貸款之間的轉換率可能存在差異，也許可以為我們解釋一下。

Yeah, hey Reggie, the small dollar loans are -- I would say just north of 15% of total loan count, but because they're small, they're more like maybe something like 3% of total dollar originations. So it's on that scale with respect to conversion, I mean it's a little bit there -- there's some overlap there.

是的，嘿，雷吉，小額貸款——我想說佔總貸款金額的 15% 左右，但因為金額較小，所以它們可能只佔總貸款額的 3% 左右。因此，就轉換而言，它是在這個範圍內的，我的意思是它有一點 - 那裡有一些重疊。

I mean, the conversion rates are definitely lower than the core PL, but you have to remember that a lot of this volume comes as turndowns from our core products. So if we can't approve somebody for a $10,000 loan over five years, we can look at them for a much smaller loan. So you're already looking at an applicant that has in some sense been declined. So it's a bit hard to do it apples to apples. Maybe you think of it as a second look at a conversion, but that conversion number in of itself is lower than the number we have for our core product.

我的意思是，轉換率肯定低於核心 PL，但你必須記住，這一數量很大一部分來自於我們核心產品的拒絕。因此，如果我們不能批准某人獲得五年期 10,000 美元的貸款，我們可以考慮向他們提供數額小得多的貸款。因此，您已經看到一位在某種意義上被拒絕的申請人。因此，進行同類比較有點困難。您可能認為這是對轉換的第二次審視，但轉換數字本身卻低於我們核心產品的數字。

And you talked about this, but I was just curious, what are the main drivers of, your improved conversion? Like I would imagine that it's the APR loan, but I don't want to oversimplify that. And then the second part of the question is, when you have these improvements in your underwriting model, how does that trickle down to your loan buyers like is there a process where they get comfortable and confident in that because presumably you'd be approving more people maybe at a lower rate. And I'm curious whether that lower rate would then translate to a lower transaction fee from your partner like how do they get comfortable in the accuracy of your model, if that makes sense.

您談到了這一點，但我只是好奇，提高轉換率的主要驅動因素是什麼？就像我想像的那樣，這是 APR 貸款，但我不想過度簡化這一點。然後問題的第二部分是，當你的核保模式有這些改進時，它會如何影響到你的貸款購買者？我很好奇，較低的利率是否意味著您的合作夥伴會支付較低的交易費，他們如何對您的模型的準確性感到滿意，如果這有意義的話。

I'll speak to the first part. This is Dave and that -- and then let Sanjay speak to investors and how they get comfortable. With our model, I mean, the very fundamentals of our technology for those that follow us are that the models get more and more accurate. That has the effect of avoiding more people that are likely to default or at least pricing them more accurately.

我將講第一部分。這是戴夫，然後讓桑傑與投資者談談如何讓他們感到舒適。有了我們的模型，我的意思是，對於跟隨我們的人來說，我們技術的最基本要素就是模型變得越來越準確。這樣做的目的是避免更多可能違約的人，或至少讓他們的定價更準確。

And when that happens, the other people generally, you can improve more and reduce rates for them. So the very basic, dynamic that is so important to who we are and how we do, what we do is that more accurate models lead to growth.

當這種情況發生時，通常你可以為其他人提供更多改進並降低他們的費率。因此，對於我們是誰以及我們如何做、我們所做的事情而言，最基本的、最重要的動態是，更精確的模型會帶來成長。

The other side is because rates aren't everything is automation. When the level of automation goes up, meaning there's less friction involved in getting a loan from us, invariably the conversion rate goes up. So those two dynamics explain almost the entire history of our company, frankly, more accurate rates or credit decisioning. And then less friction, and you put those two together and that is the story of Upstart in 100 words or less.

另一方面是因為利率不是一切，而是自動化。當自動化程度提高時，意味著從我們這裡獲得貸款的阻力更小，轉換率必然會上升。所以這兩個動態幾乎解釋了我們公司的整個歷史，坦白說，更準確的利率或信貸決策。然後減少摩擦，把這兩者結合起來，這就是 100 字或更少的 Upstart 的故事。

Yeah. And just to speak to the investor side, Reggie, I mean that loan buyers who work with us or loan buyers who've gotten comfortable with the fact that our model evolves over time and it's on that basis that they do their diligence on us. And of course, in certainly in the instances where that capital is under a committed capital arrangement, we're also putting our money where our mouth is, of course. And so it's embedded in the nature of any of a relationship that we have with any loan buyer.

是的。雷吉，我只想從投資者的角度談談，我的意思是與我們合作的貸款購買者或已經習慣了我們的模式隨著時間推移而發展這一事實的貸款購買者，正是在此基礎上，他們對我們進行了盡職調查。當然，在資本處於承諾資本安排的情況下，我們也會說到做到。因此，它已融入我們與任何貸款購買者之間的關係本質之中。

They know we're not a static underwriter, and they've chosen to be a counterparty to us on the basis of how our models evolve and they understand that well. So I don't think it's generally not a surprise to folks who work with us.

他們知道我們不是靜態的承銷商，他們根據我們的模型的發展選擇成為我們的交易對手，並且他們非常了解這一點。因此我認為這對與我們合作的人來說並不奇怪。

No, I guess what I'm a better way to articulate it would be, as your models improve, if their discount rate or what they're willing to pay for a loan doesn't change, then presumably the alpha in your model is captured by them. Am I thinking about that correctly? So like they don't change what they're willing to buy your loan for -- but if the model improves, they ultimately benefit from it on the back end because it outperforms even what they would have thought. Is that the right way to think about it?

不，我想我可以更好地表達這一點，隨著你的模型的改進，如果他們的折扣率或他們願意支付的貸款金額沒有改變，那麼你模型中的 alpha 大概就會被他們捕獲。我這樣想對嗎？因此，他們不會改變願意購買你的貸款的價格——但如果模型得到改進，他們最終會從中受益，因為它的表現甚至超出了他們的想像。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Not exactly. So Reggie, you're right in that the state of our model has no bearing on what return they require, but if their return requirement is constant and we perceive for a set of borrowers a lower amount of risk. We will actually lower the APR. So it's the borrower in fact who get who makes the gain from a model improvement, not the investor. They just care that we're calibrated to their rate of return and frankly they don't really worry too much how we derive that return as long as we stand behind it and we execute. But yeah, better models tend to accrue value to the borrowers in the form of lower APRs.

不完全是。所以雷吉，你是對的，我們的模型的狀態與他們要求的回報無關，但如果他們的回報要求是恆定的，我們就會認為一組借款人的風險較低。我們實際上會降低 APR。因此，事實上，從模型改進中獲益的是藉款人，而不是投資者。他們只關心我們是否符合他們的回報率，坦白說，只要我們堅持並執行，他們就不會太擔心我們如何獲得回報。但確實，更好的模型往往會以更低的 APR 形式為借款人帶來價值。

Congratulations on the quarter, guys. I was totally caught flat footed by this one. I want to give you the flowers of great work on the quarter for sure.

大家，恭喜本季取得佳績。我對這個完全措手不及。我一定要向你們致以本季出色工作的敬意。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特（James Faucette）。

And my congratulations on a really good quarter. I have wanted to ask a couple of clarifying questions. First on contribution profit margins, it looks good, although it's played down a little bit from third quarter '24 and the fourth quarter of '23. I know there's going to be some seasonality and that thing, but when you talk about like reduced stack, etc. Can you give us a little bit of nuance like what is moving the contribution margin around and what we should think as a realistic range for it to be in as we go to the next year and beyond.

我對本季的良好業績表示祝賀。我想問幾個澄清的問題。首先，就貢獻利潤率而言，它看起來不錯，儘管與24年第三季和23年第四季相比有所下降。我知道會有一些季節性因素之類的，但是當您談到減少堆疊等時，您能否給我們提供一些細微差別，例如，貢獻利潤率的變動情況以及我們應該認為在明年及以後的現實範圍是什麼。

Hey, James. So things that are moving the contribution margin, I guess I would call out three things. One is just our take rates and how we're managing those, and because we've been very in quarter take rate optimized recently. I think as we regrow our volumes and get back into net profitability, GAAP profitability you could imagine us.

嘿，詹姆斯。因此，對於影響貢獻利潤率的因素，我想我會指出三件事。一是我們的接受率以及我們如何管理這些接受率，因為我們最近對本季的接受率進行了非常優化。我認為，隨著我們重新增長銷售並恢復淨盈利能力，您可以想像我們的 GAAP 盈利能力。

Altering the levers between in quarter profit and overall platform volume, and we do that by lowering take rates and increasing volumes, and that's a constant experiment we're running and it's a constant decision we're taking. So take rates are one source of variability in contribution margin.

改變季度利潤和整體平台交易量之間的槓桿，我們透過降低收費率和增加交易量來實現這一點，這是我們正在進行的一項持續的實驗，也是我們不斷做出的決定。因此，收取率是貢獻毛利變動的來源。

The second is our acquisition cost and similarly, as Dave pointed out, we've been very, very efficient if you will, in the lean periods of the prior years we've been largely growing off of what you might think of as organic or CRM Mind acquisition leads, and those are obviously free and as we get more expansive and we get a better conversion funnel, you'll see us wade further into paid acquisition. So that that may have an impact on the margin, on contribution margin.

第二個是我們的獲取成本，同樣，正如戴夫指出的那樣，如果你願意的話，我們一直非常非常高效，在前幾年的淡季，我們主要依靠你可能認為的有機或 CRM Mind 獲取線索來增長，這些顯然是免費的，隨著我們變得更加擴張並獲得更好的轉化渠道，你會看到我們進一步涉足付費獲取。這可能會對利潤率和貢獻利潤率產生影響。

And the third one is really our operating costs, our cost to onboard alone, our cost to service alone, and those are areas where I think we're making great efficiencies over time. We have leaders that are applying technology to those areas and delivering a lot of automation and a lot of winds. And so our actual cost to process and service alone. Those costs are coming down over time.

第三個實際上是我們的營運成本，僅上船成本、僅服務成本，我認為這些領域我們正在隨著時間的推移而實現巨大的效率。我們的領導者正在將技術應用於這些領域，並提供大量自動化和風力發電。這就是我們的實際成本，僅用於處理和服務。這些成本正在隨著時間的推移而下降。

So I think you add the three of them up and there's some puts and the takes in either direction. But we've been pretty steady. We've bounced around between, I don't know, it's 58% and 62% for most of the past year. So I think in the grand scheme of things we've demonstrated a pretty good resiliency on the margin.

因此，我認為將這三者加起來，無論朝哪個方向都會有一些損失和收益。但我們一直很穩定。我們的比例一直在 58% 到 62% 之間波動，具體比例過去一年的大部分時間都是如此。因此我認為，從整體來看，我們已經展現出相當好的邊際彈性。

And then speaking of customer acquisition, etc. I just wanted a little bit of input as to what you're thinking on channels and how much is direct, and direct mail versus new people straight outsource.com, etc. And any changes we should anticipate as we go through this year and that mix.

然後說到客戶獲取等。

Sure, James, this is Dave. I would say first of all, we'll continue to have, our base of users is growing, so we of course are getting more and more by either cross selling products or they're getting second or third loans, etc. So I think that that fraction will always continue to tick up and those of course have close to zero acquisition costs. So generally that's a great thing.

當然，詹姆斯，這是戴夫。我想說，首先，我們的用戶群會繼續成長，所以我們當然會透過交叉銷售產品或獲得第二筆或第三筆貸款等方式獲得越來越多的用戶。總的來說這是一件好事。

We continue to make great progress, whenever our models get better, we tend to get more volume from partners, DM direct mail converts better so that, we can actually increase the amount of direct mail we tend. So we're very marginal dollar oriented when we do marketing. We certainly prefer direct marketing meaning directly to the consumer.

我們不斷取得巨大進步，每當我們的模型變得更好時，我們就會從合作夥伴那裡獲得更多的數量，DM直郵轉換效果更好，因此，我們實際上可以增加我們傾向於發送的直郵數量。因此，我們在做行銷時非常注重邊際效益。我們當然更喜歡直接行銷，也就是直接面向消費者。

I would also say because of one of our big initiatives, which is really for the consumers, we want to have the best rate you can get anywhere, no matter if you are an 800 or 850 FICO score making $200,000 a year or whether you are, a 640 FICO score and earning, $45,000 a year or anywhere in between all of those, we want to have the best rates and we've made big strides toward that and I think one of the results of that will be is you can do much more broad-based marketing when your offer is good for almost everybody, and I think we're making big strides in that direction.

我還想說，由於我們的一項重大舉措確實是為了消費者著想，我們希望為您提供盡可能最好的利率，無論您的 FICO 分數是 800 還是 850，年收入 200,000 美元，還是 FICO 分數是 640，年收入 45,000 美元，還是介於所有人的報價有利時，您可以進行更廣泛的營銷，我認為我們正在朝著這個方向邁進。

And so we're doing OTT like television stuff at some scale. I think you'll begin to see more and more of that. I don't anticipate us putting our name on a football stadium or anything like that anytime soon, but I do think you'll see Upstart's brand out there more and more in very efficient ways to attract consumers.

因此我們正在大規模地開展類似電視的 OTT 業務。我想你會開始看到越來越多這樣的情況。我預計我們不會很快把我們的名字放在足球場或類似的東西上，但我確實認為你會看到 Upstart 的品牌越來越多地以非常有效的方式吸引消費者。

Matt O'Neill, FT Partners.

馬特·奧尼爾（Matt O’Neill），FT Partners。

Sanjay, I was definitely we can follow up on the underlying our internal assumptions around UMI. I know there's a bit of an asymmetry there when things are improving, you take a little bit more time to see how the improvements hold versus when they're deteriorating, the models quick to adjust and become more conservative. So I guess the question is all else equal, with where the UMI is now versus, some level of conservatism, should it stay here, through the year would, with the internal view, continue to come down so the approach where it is now?

桑傑，我確信我們可以跟進 UMI 的內部假設。我知道當情況好轉時，會存在一些不對稱現象，你需要花更多的時間來觀察這種改善如何持續下去；而當情況惡化時，模型會快速調整並變得更加保守。因此，我猜問題是，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，UMI 現在處於什麼位置，以及存在某種程度的保守主義嗎？

So Matt, your question is whether we have an internal view that the UMI will continue to go down?

那麼 Matt，你的問題是我們是否內部認為 UMI 會繼續下降？

Yeah, well, just that I understand how -- when the data shows that it's improving, the internal model doesn't immediately adjust to that level because you're underwriting for a period of time into the future. So my understanding was there's a little bit of an asymmetry around, how quickly signs of improvement flow through into the underwriting.

是的，我只是明白——當數據顯示情況正在改善時，內部模型不會立即調整到該水平，因為您正在為未來一段時間進行承保。所以我的理解是，存在一點不對稱，改善的跡象傳導到承保的速度有多快。

I guess in general we will continue to lag any improvements in UMI and if UMI stays flat for the rest of the year, we will remain above it in terms of the assumptions we're making in newly underwritten loans. So there will be an enduring conservatism in how we underwrite because, as David explained earlier, we always want some buffer to at least, brace for a scenario where that the economy does some a U-turn with respect to credit risk.

我想，總體而言，我們將繼續落後於 UMI 的任何改進，並且如果 UMI 在今年剩餘時間內保持平穩，那麼我們在新承保貸款中做出的假設仍將高於它。因此，我們在承保時將採取持久的保守態度，因為正如 David 之前解釋的那樣，我們總是希望有一些緩衝，至少可以應對經濟在信用風險方面出現 180 度大轉彎的情況。

And I expect that to be true until that you might back down to some long term normal average like 1.0, and frankly, even then we would want some positive buffer above how we're underwriting. So I think, maybe the other way to put it is there'll always be an expression of conservatism in our underwriting. In order to brace for scenarios of risk increasing over time.

我預計這種情況會持續到回到 1.0 這樣的長期正常平均值，坦白說，即使在那時，我們也希望在我們的承保水平之上有一些積極的緩衝。因此我認為，也許換句話說，我們的承保中總是會體現出保守主義。為了應對風險隨時間推移而增加的情況。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

One more on the contribution margin, Sanjay, I think earlier you said, steady contribution margins for 2025. I -- I'm just wondering why wouldn't those go lower with so much volume growth? I would think that as volume grows, you have to spend a bit more on marketing take rates tend to come down and lead to a lower contribution margin. Why isn't that the case in 2025?

桑傑，關於貢獻利潤率，我想你之前說過，2025 年的貢獻利潤率將保持穩定。我只是想知道為什麼在交易量成長如此之快的情況下，這些價格不會降低？我認為，隨著銷售量的成長，你必須在行銷上多花一點錢，而行銷佣金率往往會下降，導致貢獻利潤率降低。為什麼2025年的情況就不一樣了呢？

Hey Rob, I think we've, it's harking back to something Dave said, we've been able to demonstrate growth at efficient, steady acquisition costs and take rates over time, and I don't think that's changed. I think the only thing that would cause our contribution margin to drop would be a conscious move to lower our take rates, in order to invest in future or future volume, if you will, at the expense of in quarter, financials, and as we've talked about that as a decision we may take one day, but I do not think that in increasing a unit costs, whether it's acquisition or operations costs, really will put a lot of pressure on our contribution margins as we scale.

嘿，羅布，我想這讓我們回想起戴夫說過的一句話，我們已經能夠以高效、穩定的收購成本和隨著時間的推移的利率實現增長，我認為這並沒有改變。我認為唯一會導致我們的貢獻利潤率下降的事情就是有意識地降低我們的佣金率，以便投資於未來或未來的銷量，如果你願意的話，以犧牲季度財務為代價，正如我們已經討論過的，我們可能有一天會做出這個決定，但我不認為增加單位成本，無論是收購成本還是運營成本，都會在我們擴大規模時給我們的貢獻率很大的壓力。

We're always very, as Dave calls it, margin dollar efficient when it comes to acquisition. As our conversion funnel gets better, we can do more marketing and we will expand the marketing to the point where our acquisition costs come back into line with our targets. So we don't view ourselves as a business that needs to overspend on marketing in order to grow.

正如戴夫所說，在收購方面，我們的利潤總是非常有效率的。隨著我們的轉換管道變得越來越好，我們可以進行更多的行銷，並且我們將擴大行銷範圍，直到我們的獲取成本回到我們的目標水平。因此，我們並不認為自己是一家需要在行銷上投入過多資金才能成長的企業。

And you touched on those at will ABS type loan buyers a couple of times this evening. Curious if that cohort is returning to the platform in a meaningful way yet and does the 2025 outlook consider a big rebound in the ABS engine there because I know that's been a big volume channel in the past so just curious to get your thoughts on the ABS channel. Thanks.

您今晚已經幾次談到了那些隨意 ABS 類型貸款的購買者。好奇這個群體是否會以有意義的方式重返該平台，以及 2025 年的展望是否考慮到 ABS 引擎的大幅反彈，因為我知道這在過去是一個很大的容量渠道，所以我很好奇您對 ABS 渠道的看法。謝謝。

Yeah, I guess the more at-willed side of the platform, it's a population we're engaged with right now and I think there's a lot of good conversations happening probably too soon to really. Make a call in terms of where they are as a broader market, but I think we're optimistic.

是的，我想，這個平台更隨意的一面是我們現在正在與之接觸的人群，我認為有很多很好的對話正在發生，但可能還為時過早。根據他們所處的更廣大市場做出判斷，但我認為我們很樂觀。

Our 2025 numbers don't really make any explicit assumptions about outwill capital. They just make the broader assumption that capital will not be a bottleneck for us, and there's many different paths or ways that that could be true, but nothing specific is being assumed about the ABS markets.

我們的 2025 年數字其實並沒有對外來資本做出任何明確的假設。他們只是做出了更廣泛的假設，即資本不會成為我們的瓶頸，並且有許多不同的途徑或方法可以實現這一點，但沒有對 ABS 市場做出任何具體假設。

Thank you. That concludes today's question and answer session. Dave, at this time I'll turn the conference back to you for your closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。戴夫，現在我將把會議交還給您，請您作結束語。

All righty, thanks to all of you for joining us today either on the phone or on the web. I'm sure you can sense our enthusiasm and our optimism. We've been through a lot and we've really taken Upstart to a level that I think the world has yet to see. So, we look forward to talk with you all again in May and sharing more about our work in 2025.

好的，感謝大家今天透過電話或網路加入我們。我相信您能感受到我們的熱情和樂觀。我們經歷了很多，並且確實將 Upstart 提升到了世界前所未有的水平。因此，我們期待在 5 月再次與大家交談，並分享更多有關我們 2025 年的工作。

Thanks, have a good evening.

謝謝，祝你晚上愉快。