Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Upstart 公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Sonya Banerjee, Head of Investor Relations. Sonya, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係主管索尼婭·班納吉。索尼婭，請繼續。

Thank you. Welcome to the Upstart earnings call for the third quarter of 2025. With me on today's call are Dave Girouard, our Co-Founder and CEO; Paul Gu, our Co-Founder and CTO; and Sanjay Datta, our CFO. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which include statements about our outlook and business strategy.

謝謝。歡迎參加 Upstart 公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有：我們的共同創辦人兼執行長 Dave Girouard；我們的共同創辦人兼技術長 Paul Gu；以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。在今天的電話會議中，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，其中包括關於我們前景和業務策略的聲明。

These statements are based on our expectations and beliefs as of today, which are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

這些聲明是基於我們截至今日的預期和信念，但存在各種風險、不確定性和假設，不應被視為對未來業績的保證。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。除法律另有規定外，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Our discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for our GAAP results. Reconciliations of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in our earnings materials, which are available on our IR website.

我們的討論將包括非GAAP財務指標，這些指標不能取代我們的GAAP績效。您可以在我們的獲利資料中找到我們歷史GAAP與非GAAP績效的調節表，這些資料可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

And with that, Dave, over to you.

那麼，戴夫，接下來就交給你了。

Thanks, Sonya. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. To kick things off, I'll share my perspective on our business. Upstart today is a dramatically stronger company than it was just a few years ago. Our technology, our business, and our teams have never been better. The opportunity for AI and credit is unimaginably large, and there's no one better positioned than Upstart to lead this $1 trillion industry to this exciting and inevitable direction.

謝謝你，索妮亞。各位下午好，感謝各位的參與。首先，我將分享我對我們業務的看法。如今的Upstart公司比幾年前強大得多。我們的技術、業務和團隊都達到了前所未有的高度。人工智慧和信貸領域的機會巨大，難以想像，而Upstart無疑是引領這個價值萬億美元的行業走向這一激動人心且不可避免的方向的最佳人選。

Now turning to Q3. Upstart continued to execute on its 2025 game plan of rapid growth, profits, and AI leadership, all under the auspices of exceptional credit performance and precise macro handling. In addition to 80% year-on-year growth in transaction volume and 71% revenue growth, we were nicely profitable once again. In fact, Q3 GAAP net income grew by a factor of 6 over the prior quarter.

現在來看第三季。Upstart 繼續執行其 2025 年快速成長、獲利和 AI 領先地位的策略規劃，所有這些都得益於其卓越的信貸表現和精準的宏觀管理。除了交易量年增 80% 和營收年增 71% 之外，我們再次實現了可觀的獲利。事實上，第三季GAAP淨利比上一季成長了6倍。

Consumer demand for Upstart continued to grow rapidly with more than 2 million applications submitted in Q3, up over 30% from Q2 and reaching the highest level in more than three years. Despite this awesome demand, transaction volume on our platform was less than we anticipated. Our risk models responded to macroeconomic signals they observed by moderately reducing approvals and increasing interest rates. This drove a reduction in our conversion rate from 23.9% in Q2 to 20.6% in Q3.

消費者對 Upstart 的需求持續快速成長，第三季提交的申請超過 200 萬份，比第二季成長超過 30%，達到三年多來的最高水準。儘管市場需求旺盛，但我們平台上的交易量卻低於預期。我們的風險模型透過適度減少審批和提高利率來回應它們觀察到的宏觀經濟訊號。這導致我們的轉換率從第二季的 23.9% 下降到第三季的 20.6%。

If you follow the Upstart Macro Index, you would have seen that this macro indicator ticked up modestly in July and August, which is essentially what our model responded to over the course of the quarter. We believe this to be nothing more than a speed bump with UMI reverting to lower numbers since.

如果你關注新興宏觀指數，你會發現該宏觀指標在 7 月和 8 月略有上升，這基本上就是我們的模型在本季所反映的情況。我們認為這只是暫時的阻礙，UMI 此後將恢復到較低的數值。

To be clear, we see no material deterioration in consumer credit strength. And in fact, we've seen recent signs of improvement. You can and should expect that our models will always do their best to price prevailing risk appropriately. Precise and rapid tuning to changing economic conditions is a foundational capability of Upstart AI, and we're confident this precision is winning hearts and minds for Upstart in the credit market right now.

需要明確的是，我們認為消費者信貸實力並沒有實質惡化。事實上，我們最近已經看到了一些改善的跡象。您可以而且應該期望我們的模型始終會盡最大努力對當前風險進行適當定價。精準快速適應不斷變化的經濟環境是 Upstart AI 的基本能力，我們相信這種精準性正在為 Upstart 在當前的信貸市場贏得人心。

The system is behaving exactly as it was designed. At a minimum, our Q3 results should give you confidence that we don't sacrifice credit performance to achieve transaction volume targets. Turning to our newer products, which include small-dollar loans, auto, and home. These offerings continue to improve and mature, accounting for almost 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3. Transaction volume for auto, home, and small-dollar each grew in the range of 300% year-on-year.

系統運作完全符合設計預期。至少，我們第三季的業績應該能讓您相信，我們不會為了實現交易量目標而犧牲信貸表現。接下來介紹我們的新產品，包括小額貸款、汽車貸款和房屋貸款。這些產品不斷改進和成熟，在第三季度佔貸款發放量的近 12% 和新借款人的 22%。汽車、房屋和小額交易的交易量年增均在 300% 左右。

Our auto retail business, in particular, has really begun to accelerate. We more than doubled the number of live lending rooftops on Upstart in Q3 compared to the prior quarter. Transaction volume for auto retail also grew more than 70% sequentially. We expanded to four new states in Q3 and made some significant improvements to our software. This is really a breakout business for us.

尤其是我們的汽車零售業務，已經真正開始加速發展。第三季度，Upstart平台上的即時借貸屋頂數量比上一季增加了一倍以上。汽車零售交易量較上季成長超過70%。第三季度，我們業務拓展到了四個新州，並且對我們的軟體進行了一些重大改進。這對我們來說真是一項突破性的業務。

Additionally, we've been quietly working on a hybrid product called an auto secured personal loan that's beginning to gain traction. As it relates to our home business, beyond continued process innovation, our unique partnerships with banks and credit unions mean we offer the best rates to the primest borrowers compared to other fintechs by as much as 300 basis points.

此外，我們一直在悄悄研發一種名為「汽車擔保個人貸款」的混合產品，該產品已開始獲得市場認可。就我們的家庭業務而言，除了持續的流程創新之外，我們與銀行和信用社的獨特合作關係意味著，與其他金融科技公司相比，我們能夠為最優質的借款人提供最優惠的利率，最高可達 300 個基點。

Best rates and best processes are what we're all about. Our continued process and automation breakthroughs in our secured products, meaning home and auto, give us confidence that they will be real growth drivers for Upstart in 2026. Finally, with respect to funding on the Upstart platform, we're in an exceptionally strong position in our core business with significant excess capacity.

我們致力於提供最優的價格和最佳的流程。我們在安全產品（即家庭和汽車）方面不斷取得流程和自動化方面的突破，這讓我們相信它們將成為 Upstart 在 2026 年的真正成長動力。最後，關於 Upstart 平台上的資金，我們在核心業務方面處於非常有利的地位，擁有大量的剩餘產能。

On the bank and credit union side, we added seven new partners, our best quarter for new logos this year, and we reached a new all-time high in monthly available funding from these partners in Q3. On the capital market side, we continue to have exceptionally strong execution with our institutional partners. Having signed our first agreement in 2023, we now have 10 active partners.

在銀行和信用社方面，我們新增了 7 位合作夥伴，這是我們今年新增合作夥伴數量最多的一個季度，並且我們在第三季度從這些合作夥伴處獲得的月度可用資金也達到了歷史新高。在資本市場方面，我們與機構合作夥伴的執行力依然非常強勁。我們在 2023 年簽署了第一份協議，目前已有 10 個活躍的合作夥伴。

In August, we renewed one of our largest partners for the second time. And importantly, Upstart has 100% retention of all private credit partners to date. We believe that we have the industry's best AI for responding rapidly and precisely to changes in the environment, and this is a central reason why our partners have confidence in us.

8月份，我們第二次與最大的合作夥伴之一續約了。更重要的是，Upstart 迄今已與所有私人信貸合作夥伴保持 100% 的合作關係。我們相信，我們擁有業界最好的人工智慧，能夠快速且準確地應對環境變化，這也是我們的合作夥伴對我們充滿信心的核心原因。

In September, we also issued a securitization with strong demand, leading to significant oversubscription of all classes despite upsizing and tightening of spreads. This ABS deal involved 30 investors, including seven first-timers, demonstrating the strength of Upstart's reputation in the market. We've also continued to make progress securing third-party funding to support our newer products.

9 月份，我們也發行了一項需求強勁的證券化產品，儘管擴大了規模並收緊了利差，但所有類別的證券化產品仍然出現了嚴重的超額認購。這項 ABS 交易涉及 30 位投資者，其中包括 7 位首次投資者，這表明 Upstart 在市場上的聲譽卓著。我們在爭取第三方資金以支持我們的新產品方面也持續取得進展。

We've signed 17 partner agreements this year, including nine signed in Q3 alone, and expect to ramp these partners into production this quarter and next. All in all, we're all systems go to finish the year strong and get ready for what we think will be an amazing 2026 for Upstart. To wrap things up, we're making rapid progress as the leader in AI-powered credit. The somewhat complicated macro economy we all see today is, in my view, the perfect opportunity to demonstrate the strength of our AI platform, and we're doing just that.

我們今年已簽署了 17 項合作夥伴協議，其中僅第三季就簽署了 9 項，預計本季和下季將使這些合作夥伴投入生產。總而言之，我們已經做好充分準備，力爭在今年取得佳績，並為我們認為對 Upstart 而言將會非常精彩的 2026 年做好準備。總而言之，我們在人工智慧驅動的信貸領域取得了快速進展，成為行業領導者。在我看來，我們今天看到的這種略顯複雜的宏觀經濟情勢，正是展現我們人工智慧平台實力的絕佳機會，而我們正在做的正是如此。

While legacy financial services execs continue to ponder the use of AI and credit, the Upstart platform has now generated more than $50 billion in AI-powered loans since inception. Unlike other AI platforms, we generate our own training data with more than 98 million borrower repayment events to date, with about 105,000 more repayments due each day, driving improved separation and model accuracy.

當傳統金融服務高管仍在思考人工智慧和信貸的應用時，Upstart 平台自成立以來已創造了超過 500 億美元的人工智慧貸款。與其他人工智慧平台不同，我們產生了自己的訓練數據，迄今為止已有超過 9800 萬筆借款人還款事件，每天還有大約 105000 筆還款到期，從而提高了分離度和模型準確性。

This is enabling us to build quickly toward a future of always-on credit, where every American is persistently and precisely underwritten, providing them with the best rate anywhere, 24/7 credit access right from their phone, with little to no process. That is a proposition and a future that we are betting on 100%. With respect to the investor community, I feel more than ever that those who stay will be champions.

這將使我們能夠快速建立一個始終在線的信貸未來，在這個未來中，每個美國人都會持續、精準地接受信貸審核，從而獲得任何地方的最佳利率，並透過手機全天候獲得信貸，幾乎無需任何流程。這是我們百分之百相信的方案和未來。就投資界而言，我比以往任何時候都更確信，留下來的人將會成為贏家。

With that, I'll turn things over to Paul Gu, my Co-Founder and Upstart's Chief Technology Officer. Paul?

接下來，我將把發言權交給我的共同創辦人兼 Upstart 技術長 Paul Gu。保羅？

Thanks, Dave. I'll start by addressing the model conservatism we experienced in parts of Q3. Over the past few years, one of our biggest advances has been our model's ability to respond with speed and precision to changes in macro conditions. This progress stems from a suite of techniques that are proprietary and critical to resilience through a diversity of economic environments. A few months ago, that led the model to tighten on credit while certain risk signals were elevated before recently normalizing.

謝謝你，戴夫。首先，我想談談我們在第三季部分地區所經歷的保守主義模式。過去幾年，我們最大的進步之一是我們的模型能夠快速、精確地對宏觀條件的變化做出反應。這項進展源自於一系列專有技術，這些技術對於在各種經濟環境下保持韌性至關重要。幾個月前，由於某些風險訊號升高，該模型收緊了信貸，但最近已恢復正常。

That model behavior partially reflects irreducible volatility in the outside world but is also a function of our model design and sampling variance, both of which continue to improve. Since the start of Q3, the improvements we've made to our calibration methodology are expected to cut unwanted month-to-month volatility in model calibration-driven conversion changes by about 50%.

此模型行為部分反映了外在世界不可避免的波動性，但也取決於我們的模型設計和抽樣方差，而這兩方面都在不斷改進。自第三季開始以來，我們對校準方法所做的改進預計將減少模型校準驅動的轉換變化中不必要的月度波動約 50%。

As we continue to innovate on our model calibration techniques, we'll increasingly be able to minimize conversion volatility in the business while delivering on target credit performance. Beyond calibration, Q3 was a productive foundation-building quarter with a number of technology improvements that will power our next phase of growth.

隨著我們不斷創新模型校準技術，我們將能夠最大限度地減少業務中的轉換波動，同時實現目標信貸績效。除了校準工作之外，第三季度是一個富有成效的基礎建設季度，我們進行了多項技術改進，這將為我們下一階段的成長提供動力。

I'll start with personal loans. First, we took another leap forward in our evergreen engineering quest to lower latency in pricing loans. By parallelizing another major portion of loan pricing, we reduced end-to-end latency by as much as 30% and are now rolling it out platform-wide. Reduced latency unlocks the ability to build larger and more complex models as well as make use of the ever-growing data set of 98 million repayment events that Dave mentioned.

我先從個人貸款說起。首先，我們在降低貸款定價延遲的長期工程探索中又向前邁進了一大步。透過並行化貸款定價的另一個主要部分，我們將端到端延遲降低了 30%，現在正在全平台推廣。降低延遲可以建立更大、更複雜的模型，並利用 Dave 提到的不斷增長的 9,800 萬個還款事件的資料集。

Next, we launched a true machine learning model to optimize take rates. It is our intention to capture value in relation to the value that we create for our borrowers. We expect that this framework, over time, will unlock a significant improvement in our ability to monetize model wins that benefit borrowers who are already vested for as well as increase our competitiveness in new segments where we're still establishing our edge.

接下來，我們推出了一個真正的機器學習模型來優化轉換率。我們的目標是獲取與我們為借款人創造的價值相關的價值。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這個框架將顯著提高我們實現模式成功變現的能力，使已經獲得收益的借款人受益，並提高我們在仍在建立優勢的新領域的競爭力。

In the domain of customer acquisition, our ability to utilize digital partnership channels that relied on cloud environments or APIs to target offers was historically limited by the complexity of our underwriting models. This quarter, we built a programming language agnostic framework for data transformation that makes it much faster to translate our models to work with any partner ecosystem.

在客戶獲取領域，由於核保模式的複雜性，我們利用依賴雲端環境或 API 的數位合作夥伴管道進行定向推廣的能力歷來受到限制。本季度，我們建立了一個與程式語言無關的資料轉換框架，這使得我們的模型能夠更快地轉換為與任何合作夥伴生態系統相容的模式。

We also worked with a key partner to enable larger model sizes in their cloud environment, allowing more of Upstart's unique underwriting algorithms to be used in targeting. On our direct marketing channels, we developed a proprietary technique to target marketing spend based on causal impact to conversion. Compared to our prior, more textbook technique, early results show a 50% uplift in incremental originations from the same level of spend.

我們還與一位重要合作夥伴合作，在其雲端環境中實現更大的模型規模，從而使 Upstart 的更多獨特承保演算法能夠用於目標定位。在我們的直接行銷管道中，我們開發了一種專有技術，可以根據對轉換率的因果影響來定位行銷支出。與我們之前更傳統的方法相比，初步結果顯示，在相同的支出水平下，新增貸款金額提高了 50%。

Advanced AI and underwriting ultimately need equally advanced AI and acquisition, and the successes this quarter were a big step towards that. I'll wrap up my remarks with a few technological highlights that are driving growth in newer products. We've made rapid progress automating the process of getting a HELOC.

先進的人工智慧和承保最終需要同樣先進的人工智慧和收購，而本季的成功是朝著這個方向邁出的一大步。最後，我將重點介紹一些推動新產品成長的技術亮點。我們在實現房屋淨值信用額度貸款流程自動化方面取得了快速進展。

When we launched instant property valuations back in June, we automatically approved less than 1% of home loans. Since then, automatic home loan approvals have grown to 10% in September and about 20% in October. While we'd love to simply automate away almost all the documents like we have in personal loans, the world of home loans is just less digital, less standardized, and there are more requirements.

今年6月我們推出即時房產估價服務時，自動核准的房屋貸款不到1%。自那以後，9 月自動房屋貸款審批率成長至 10%，10 月成長至約 20%。雖然我們很想像個人貸款一樣，簡單地自動化處理幾乎所有文件，但房屋貸款領域數位化程度較低，標準化程度較低，而且要求更多。

So for the next leg of improving the HELOC funnel, we've begun using multimodal AI to do the work of human document reviewers in real time. Our rapid pace of process improvements makes me optimistic that we're on a path to an industry-leading home equity product.

因此，為了進一步改善房屋淨值信用額度 (HELOC) 流程，我們已經開始使用多模態人工智慧來即時完成人工文件審核員的工作。我們快速推進流程改進，這讓我樂觀地認為，我們正在朝著打造行業領先的房屋淨值產品的方向前進。

Additionally, our small-dollar relief loans continue to make rapid progress. In September, we launched Instant Funding for the first time. Most borrowers who qualify for instant funding see funds in their bank account within around 90 seconds of approval. While small installment loans at bank-friendly APRs are a wonderful innovation, you should expect to see a lot more from Upstart in this area in the coming months.

此外，我們的小額救濟貸款專案也持續取得快速進展。9月份，我們首次推出了即時融資服務。大多數符合即時放款資格的借款人會在審批通過後約 90 秒內收到銀行帳戶中的資金。雖然以銀行優惠利率提供的小額分期貸款是一項了不起的創新，但在接下來的幾個月裡，您應該會看到 Upstart 在這個領域推出更多產品。

Thanks to the team's work this quarter, I'm more excited than ever about our upcoming pipeline of technology wins. With that, I'll turn it over to Sanjay. Sanjay?

感謝團隊本季的努力，我對我們即將取得的技術突破計劃感到比以往任何時候都更加興奮。接下來，我將把麥克風交給桑傑。桑傑？

Thanks, Paul, and thanks to all of our participants for sharing some of your time with us today. I'll now spend a bit of time reviewing our Q3 numbers. At a headline level, we were pleased to finish the quarter with healthy annual and sequential revenue growth as well as extend our run back to profitability.

謝謝保羅，也感謝所有參與者今天抽出時間與我們共聚一堂。接下來我將花點時間回顧我們第三季的業績數據。從總體上看，我們很高興本季實現了健康的年度和環比收入成長，並繼續保持盈利。

Within that, our transaction revenue this past quarter was marginally short of expectations as our models expressed some temporary conservatism in piloting the current environmental dynamics, but this was largely offset by growth in interest income from the strong return performance of our balance sheet.

其中，由於我們的模型在模擬當前環境動態時表現出一定的暫時保守性，因此上個季度的交易收入略低於預期，但這很大程度上被資產負債表強勁回報表現帶來的利息收入成長所抵消。

Margins and take rates have remained steady, and credit performance continues to land right on target. We are carrying a larger-than-normal loan balance on our books as we work towards closing a number of deals across all of our new product areas, which will both reduce R&D carrying balances and flow new volume directly to our lenders and investors.

利潤率和貸款發放率保持穩定，信貸表現持續達到預期目標。由於我們正在努力完成所有新產品領域的多項交易，因此我們的帳面上貸款餘額高於正常水平，這將減少研發資金餘額，並將新的業務量直接帶給我們的貸款人和投資者。

We remain pleased with the progress of those various conversations and expect to have tangible outcomes on this front by the end of the year. More broadly, third-party capital in our core unsecured lending segment remains readily accessible, handily outstripping our borrower supply, and is currently not in any way an impediment to growth.

我們對各項對話的進展感到滿意，並期待在年底前在這方面取得實際成果。更廣泛地說，在我們核心的無擔保貸款領域，第三方資本仍然很容易獲得，遠遠超過了我們的借款人供應量，目前絲毫沒有阻礙成長。

Spreads on our third-party capital continue to compress, partially a result of the competitive funding environment and partially as an expression of investor confidence in the steadfast performance of our credit. With respect to borrower approvability, our model has exhibited some recent caution in response to a UMI run-up of almost 0.2 points that happened over the course of the past quarter before more recently subsiding as well as to a rising trend in repayment speeds, which is generally an encouraging longer-term signal for credit, but in the near term, limits interest income from current loans and requires higher coupons to compensate.

我們的第三方資本利差持續收窄，部分原因是競爭激烈的融資環境，部分原因是投資者對我們信貸穩健表現的信心。就借款人審批而言，我們的模型最近表現出一定的謹慎態度，這是由於過去一個季度 UMI 指數上漲了近 0.2 個百分點，之後有所回落，以及還款速度呈上升趨勢。從長遠來看，這通常是一個令人鼓舞的信貸訊號，但在短期內，這會限制當前貸款的利息收入，需要更高的票息來彌補。

In all of this, we, as always, care, first and foremost, about getting credit performance right, which will always result in the best long-term outcome for our business. We have an inherent belief that AI models are better suited to navigating a complex and changing environment than human intuition, and we have demonstrated the discipline to heat them even when they express a bias toward moderation as now.

在所有這些工作中，我們一如既往地首先關注的是如何做好信貸工作，因為這始終會為我們的業務帶來最佳的長期結果。我們始終認為，人工智慧模型比人類直覺更適合應對複雜多變的環境，而且我們已經證明，即使人工智慧模型像現在這樣表現出溫和傾向，我們也有紀律去對其進行最佳化。

If the currently observed higher repayment speeds and easing consumption growth are indeed indicators of imminent credit improvement, these could represent the long-anticipated tailwinds that could accelerate growth prospects heading into next year. In the meantime, we continue to be guided by the North Star of prudence in the underwriting of risk on behalf of our lenders and investors. With this as context, here are some of the financial highlights from Q3 of 2025.

如果目前觀察到的較高還款速度和放緩的消費成長確實是信貸即將改善的跡象，那麼這些可能代表著期待已久的利多因素，可以加速明年的成長前景。同時，我們將繼續秉持審慎的原則，代表我們的貸款人和投資者進行風險承保。基於上述背景，以下是 2025 年第三季的一些財務亮點。

Total revenue for Q3 came in at roughly $277 million, up 71% year-on-year and 8% sequentially. This overall number included revenue from fees of approximately $259 million, which was up 54% year-on-year, but short of our internal expectations by roughly 6%, mainly for the model-related reasons previously mentioned. Within fee revenues, our servicing revenue stream continued its steady growth clip at a 10% sequential rate.

第三季總營收約 2.77 億美元，年增 71%，季增 8%。總計收入包括約 2.59 億美元的手續費收入，年增 54%，但比我們內部預期低了約 6%，主要原因是前面提到的與模型相關的因素。在手續費收入方面，我們的服務收入持續保持穩定成長，季增成長率達 10%。

Much of the shortfall in expected fees was counterbalanced by higher-than-expected net interest income of approximately $19 million, resulting from continuing strong return performance on a loan balance that remains temporarily elevated. To reiterate, we are aiming to enter into a phase of reducing our R&D-related balance sheet holdings, which we anticipate will gain steam in Q4 and continue into 2026, and we would expect this revenue item to moderate as we are successful.

預期費用的缺口很大程度上被高於預期的約 1,900 萬美元淨利息收入所抵消，這得益於貸款餘額（目前仍處於暫時高點）持續強勁的回報表現。重申一下，我們的目標是進入減少研發相關資產負債表持有量的階段，我們預計這一階段將在第四季度加速推進，並持續到 2026 年，隨著我們取得成功，我們預計這項收入項目將會趨於緩和。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform was approximately 428,000, up 128% from the prior year and 15% sequentially, and representing approximately 300,000 new borrowers. The average loan size of approximately $6,670 was 12% lower than the prior quarter from a combination of borrowers requesting lower loan amounts, a model exercising increased caution in improving loan sizes, and a mix shift towards smaller loan products and risk rights.

我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 428,000 筆，比上年增長 128%，環比增長 15%，新增借款人約 30 萬人。由於借款人申請的貸款金額減少、貸款規模改善方面更加謹慎，以及貸款產品和風險權利組合向較小規模轉變，平均貸款規模約為 6,670 美元，比上一季下降了 12%。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 57% in Q3, down approximately 1 percentage point from the prior quarter and versus guidance as lower conversion rates created some mild upward pressure on both acquisition and onboarding unit costs.

我們的貢獻毛利率（非GAAP指標，定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本佔費用收入的百分比）在第三季度為57%，比上一季度下降了約1個百分點，也低於預期，因為較低的轉換率對獲取和入職單位成本都造成了輕微的上行壓力。

In total, GAAP operating expenses were around $253 million in Q3, roughly flat to Q2. Expenses that are considered variable relating to borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing were up 11% sequentially relative to the 15% increase in volume of loan transactions. Fixed expenses were actually down 7% quarter-on-quarter, largely due to a reduction in compensation-related accruals.

第三季 GAAP 營運支出總計約 2.53 億美元，與第二季大致持平。與借款人獲取、核實和服務相關的可變費用環比增長 11%，而貸款交易量增長了 15%。固定支出較上月下降 7%，主要原因是與薪酬相關的應計費用減少。

Q3 GAAP net income was approximately positive $32 million, well ahead of expectations and reflecting outperformance on net interest income, reduced fixed costs, and a $7.2 million gain on our convertible debt repurchase. GAAP earnings per share were $0.23 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 110 million.

第三季 GAAP 淨利潤約為 3,200 萬美元，遠超預期，這主要得益於淨利息收入的超額收益、固定成本的降低以及可轉換債券回購獲得的 720 萬美元收益。根據 1.1 億股稀釋加權平均股數計算，GAAP 每股盈餘為 0.23 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was roughly $71 million, also corresponding ahead of expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.52 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 125 million. We ended Q3 with approximately $1.2 billion of loans held directly on our balance sheet, up from just over $1 billion in Q2.

調整後 EBITDA 約 7,100 萬美元，也超乎預期。根據稀釋加權平均股數 1.25 億股計算，調整後每股收益為 0.52 美元。第三季末，我們資產負債表上直接持有的貸款約 12 億美元，高於第二季的 10 億美元多一點。

As shared last quarter, we have multiple new products simultaneously exiting R&D status and entering the scale-up phase. And our business development efforts this past quarter have been aimed at putting in place the third-party capital arrangements that will enable us to shift away from balance sheet funding on these emerging products and release back our invested capital.

如同上季所分享的，我們有多款新產品同時結束研發階段，進入規模化生產階段。上個季度，我們的業務發展努力旨在建立第三方資本安排，使我們能夠擺脫對這些新興產品的資產負債表融資，並釋放我們投資的資本。

We are very pleased with the progress of these efforts and believe that we are on a path to putting multiple agreements in place across all of these new product lines, which will set them up to further scale in 2026. Exact deal timing is, of course, not perfectly predictable, and it is important for us to do the right deals with the right partners. So we will take the necessary time to ensure we are well set up on this front for next year.

我們對這些努力的進展感到非常滿意，並相信我們正在朝著在所有這些新產品線中達成多項協議的方向前進，這將為它們在 2026 年進一步擴大規模奠定基礎。當然，具體的交易時機並非完全可預測，對我們來說，與合適的合作夥伴進行正確的交易至關重要。因此，我們將花必要的時間確保明年在這方面做好充分準備。

In the meantime, returns from our balance sheet holdings continue to be strong, delivering healthy spreads above market base rates, as can be seen in the data on page 23 of our earnings presentation. As we look to Q4, the broader economic backdrop for credit remains favorable in our estimation. Decelerating personal consumption growth is a signal of improving credit health, if perhaps counterintuitively so.

同時，我們資產負債表所持有的資產的回報依然強勁，實現了高於市場基準利率的健康利差，正如我們在獲利報告第 23 頁的數據中所顯示的那樣。展望第四季度，我們認為信貸的整體經濟環境仍有利。個人消費成長放緩是信貸狀況改善的訊號，儘管這可能與人們的直覺相反。

Against this, we perceive a labor market that has remained at full employment since lockdown, meaning there are as many open jobs as job seekers in the economy, as well as a muted impact of the recent tariff policies on inflation and a gradual easing of the monetary climate. In this scenario, we once again assume a stable UMI as well as holiday seasonality typical of Q4, which tends to serve as a mild headwind.

與此相反，我們看到勞動力市場自封鎖以來一直處於充分就業狀態，這意味著經濟中的空缺職位與求職者數量相當，而且最近的關稅政策對通貨膨脹的影響有限，貨幣環境也在逐步放鬆。在這種情況下，我們再次假設 UMI 保持穩定，且第四季的假期季節性也較為典型，這往往會構成輕微的不利因素。

We expect the impact of any further rate cuts this year to both improve consumer financial health and lower investor return requirements. But at this stage, any such effects would not be felt until the new year. In this environment, we will continue to produce model and targeting accuracy gains as well as automation wins to grow our top line. Our net interest income will start to benefit from the returns on our committed capital investments that were made in prior years.

我們預計今年任何進一步的降息都將改善消費者的財務狀況，並降低投資者的回報要求。但現階段，任何此類影響都要到新年才會顯現。在這種環境下，我們將繼續提高模型和目標定位的準確性，並在自動化方面取得成功，從而提升我們的營收。我們的淨利息收入將開始受益於前幾年承諾的資本投資的回報。

Now that our P&L is once again back to profitability, we will plan to begin dialing up our forward investment into customer lifetime value by slightly moderating take rates in exchange for higher origination volumes and higher repeat transactions in the future. And as usual, we will expect to continue our fixed expense discipline in how we manage the cost side of our business.

現在我們的損益表再次恢復獲利，我們將計劃透過稍微降低佣金率來增加對客戶終身價值的預期投資，以換取未來更高的貸款發放量和更高的重複交易量。和往常一樣，我們將繼續嚴格控制固定支出，以管理公司的成本。

With this context, for Q4 of 2025, we are expecting total revenues of approximately $288 million, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $262 million and total net interest income of approximately $26 million. Contribution margin of approximately 53%, GAAP net income of approximately $17 million, adjusted net income of approximately $52 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $63 million, with a basic weighted average share count of approximately 98 million shares and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 111 million shares.

在此背景下，我們預計 2025 年第四季總營收約為 2.88 億美元，其中手續費收入約為 2.62 億美元，淨利息收入約為 2,600 萬美元。貢獻毛利率約 53%，GAAP 淨利潤約 1,700 萬美元，調整後淨利約 5,200 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 約 6,300 萬美元，基本加權平均股數約 9,800 萬股，稀釋加權平均股數約 1.11 億股。

For the full year of 2025, we now expect total revenues of approximately $1.035 billion, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $946 million and net interest income of approximately $89 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 22%, and we expect GAAP net income of approximately $50 million.

我們現在預計 2025 年全年總收入約為 10.35 億美元，其中包括約 9.46 億美元的手續費收入和約 8,900 萬美元的淨利息收入。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 22%，我們預期 GAAP 淨利潤約為 5,000 萬美元。

Before we move to Q&A, I will take the opportunity to thank all of the various teams across Upstart for their hard work and continuing dedication to our mission. And with that, operator, over to you.

在進入問答環節之前，我要藉此機會感謝 Upstart 各個團隊的辛勤工作和對我們使命的持續奉獻。那麼，操作員，接下來交給你了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

Dan Dolev，瑞穗銀行。

Hey guys, good evening. Thank you so much for taking my question, really appreciate it. Just wanted to ask a quick question on the application demand. It seems very strong quarter-over-quarter.

各位，晚上好。非常感謝您回答我的問題，我真的非常感激。我想簡單問一下關於申請需求的問題。環比來看，這似乎非常強勁。

Maybe, Sanjay, if you can comment on the strong demand in the third quarter, and then maybe just like tie it all into the guidance, which was a little bit below what we were expecting and below the guidance in 2Q. So, how do you square these two things together?

Sanjay，或許你可以談談第三季強勁的需求，然後把這一切與業績指引連結起來，因為第三季的業績指引略低於我們的預期，也低於第二季的指引。那麼，如何將這兩件事連結起來呢？

Hey Dan, this is Dave. Yes, as we said in the remarks, we grew applications about 30% quarter-on-quarter, which was ahead of the origination, the transaction volume quarter-on-quarter. And really, a lot of things came together in terms of just marketing programs and cross-selling and all these things. So the application growth is certainly great to see.

嗨，丹，我是戴夫。是的，正如我們在發言中所說，我們的申請量環比增長了約 30%，高於申請發放量和交易量環比增長的幅度。實際上，很多因素都匯聚到了一起，例如行銷計劃、交叉銷售等等。因此，應用程式的成長確實令人欣喜。

I think what it really highlights is that our model took a step towards conservatism during the third quarter, just based on seeing macro factors. And I think that is just a natural thing we might expect. As we said, it's since reverted, but it was a period of time where it saw signals, and it was moving quickly. I think maybe overreacting. I think in some sense, having a model that overreacts is better than having ones that underreact because it did revert.

我認為這真正凸顯的是，我們的模型在第三季度朝著保守的方向邁進了一步，這只是基於對宏觀因素的觀察。我認為這只是我們預料到的自然現象。正如我們所說，情況後來有所好轉，但那段時間它確實看到了訊號，而且發展迅速。我覺得我可能反應過度了。我認為從某種意義上說，反應過度的模型比反應不足的模型更好，因為它最終會恢復原狀。

But I think it is useful to point out that the application volume was quite strong, our strongest in three years, and grew quite a lot. And I think that's a very healthy statement for the business, even if it didn't in Q3 transfer to as much volume as we expected.

但我認為有必要指出，申請量非常強勁，是三年來最強勁的一次，而且成長幅度很大。我認為這對公司來說是一個非常健康的訊號，即使在第三季銷售量沒有達到我們預期的水平。

Great. Thank you, nice results overall, appreciate it.

偉大的。謝謝，整體結果不錯，非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Kyle Peterson, Needham.

凱爾彼得森，尼德姆。

Great. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask specifically in auto, obviously, there's been some high-profile bankruptcies and kind of negative credit events in the space.

偉大的。午安.感謝您回答這個問題。我想具體問問汽車產業的情況，顯然，這個領域發生了一些備受矚目的破產事件和一些負面的信用事件。

Have any of the headlines or news impacted your expansion plans or how conversations with customers are going? Or I guess just how has the recent news and events impacted how you guys are viewing things and progressing in auto right now?

近期的新聞標題或報導是否對您的擴張計畫或與客戶的溝通產生了影響？或者我想問，最近的新聞和事件對你們看待汽車產業現狀和發展方向產生了哪些影響？

Yes. None of that has had a direct impact on us for sure. We have not seen that type of couple of examples that were out there of fraud zone activity. So, I don't think it's anything that we would describe as widespread. It's not something from our perspective that is widespread. I think when you have examples like that, it does create a little bit of caution in the market. So banks or others providing senior financing probably do a bit more diligence, et cetera.

是的。這些事情目前肯定沒有對我們產生直接影響。我們還沒有看到像之前報導過的那種詐騙區域活動的案例。所以，我認為這不算是普遍存在。從我們的角度來看，這並不是一種普遍現象。我認為，當出現這樣的例子時，確實會在市場上引起一些謹慎情緒。因此，提供高級融資的銀行或其他機構可能會進行更嚴格的盡職調查等等。

But I don't think there's any wholesale change in the market, but that is the nature of it. A couple of the larger banks got bitten on that particular auto lender. But we've been pretty rigorous about building processes to make sure we're effectively underwriting the dealership themselves and mitigating risks against dealer activity that's not what we want. So, this is an area that I think we're handling well.

但我認為市場不會有任何徹底的變化，這就是市場的本質。有好幾家大銀行都因為那家汽車貸款機構而吃虧了。但是，我們一直非常嚴格地制定流程，以確保我們能夠有效地為經銷商本身提供擔保，並降低經銷商開展我們不希望看到的活動所帶來的風險。所以，我認為我們在這個領域處理得很好。

We have not seen any major issues. But again, I think whenever you read headlines, it does cause a little caution in terms of increasing amounts of diligence or questions that need to be asked, et cetera, but that's part of the course.

我們沒有發現任何重大問題。但話說回來，我覺得每當你閱讀新聞標題時，都會讓你更加謹慎，需要更加認真地對待，或者提出更多問題等等，但這都是過程的一部分。

Okay, appreciate the color and that's helpful. I guess as a follow-up, I wanted to specifically ask about what you guys are seeing in the super prime segment. I guess, looking at the originations, it was down a little bit sequentially.

好的，欣賞這種顏色很有幫助。我想接著問一下，你們在超級黃金檔段看到了什麼？我猜，從貸款發放情況來看，貸款發放量逐年略為下降。

So, I guess, was that where the model tightness that you guys called out? Did you see a little more in that 720-plus FICO score versus the core product? Or is there more competition there? I guess, just like what are you guys seeing? And is any of that concentrated more in the super prime? Just trying to think how we should square that with some of the positive commentary on demand and funding capacity from your bank partners.

所以，我猜，這就是你們之前提到的模型緊繃問題所在吧？你覺得720分以上的FICO信用評分比核心產品更勝一籌嗎？還是那裡的競爭更激烈？我想，就像你們看到的一樣？這些物質是否更集中在超質粒子中？我正在思考如何將這些與貴行合作夥伴對需求和融資能力的正面評價相協調。

Kyle, this is Sanjay. I think it's a combination of things. I mean, the thing you pointed out is definitely a factor, meaning our models reacted generally to some macro signals as Dave described.

凱爾，我是桑傑。我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。我的意思是，你指出的這一點確實是一個因素，這意味著我們的模型通常會對一些宏觀信號做出反應，正如戴夫所描述的那樣。

I think that was true of the primary segments as well. In fact, if you look at the segmentation of our UMI, the subprime consumer is actually at a relatively low UMI, probably somewhere around 1.2, 1.3. And if you start to look into the segments in the low to mid-700s, it's quite a bit higher.

我認為這對於主要細分市場也是如此。事實上，如果你看一下我們的 UMI 細分，你會發現次級貸款消費者的 UMI 實際上相對較低，可能在 1.2 到 1.3 左右。而如果你開始研究 700 分左右的細分市場，你會發現 UMI 要高得多。

So, there was definitely a model impact. I think it's fair to say that it's also a very competitive segment, and we see other growth numbers in that segment, and they're healthy. So there's a price impact or an aspect of competition as well.

所以，這肯定是有模型影響的。我認為可以公平地說，這也是一個競爭非常激烈的領域，我們看到該領域其他方面的成長數據也相當健康。所以，價格因素或競爭因素也會影響價格。

Okay. Thank you for taking my questions.

好的。謝謝您回答我的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Pete Christiansen, Citi.

Pete Christiansen，花旗集團。

Good evening, Dave, Paul, Sanjay, thanks for the question here. I want to follow up on some of the earlier questions. As it relates to the improvements that you made with your marketing channels, which sounds pretty exciting and is obviously illustrated by the higher number of applications.

晚上好，戴夫、保羅、桑傑，感謝你們提出的問題。我想就之前提出的一些問題做進一步的說明。至於您在行銷管道方面所做的改進，這聽起來相當令人興奮，而且申請數量的增加也清楚地表明了這一點。

Is there a way to at least get your sense for the quality of these leads? I know the AI system was a bit conservative this quarter. So, taking that into account, do you think that the quality of applications has remained the same or maybe improved or what have you with these new capabilities?

有沒有辦法至少了解這些銷售線索的品質？我知道人工智慧系統本季表現得有點保守。那麼，考慮到這些因素，您認為這些新功能是否使應用程式的品質保持不變，或者有所提高，或者您怎麼看？

Hey, Peter, this is Paul. Yes. So I spoke in my prepared remarks nice wins we had in applying AI to customer acquisition. And the way you can think about those wins is ultimately, at the point of customer acquisition, we are somewhat indifferent between selecting for people who have a high propensity to apply and people who have a high propensity to convert or be approved.

嘿，彼得，我是保羅。是的。因此，我在事先準備好的演講稿中談到了我們在將人工智慧應用於客戶獲取方面取得的顯著成果。你可以這樣理解這些成功：最終，在客戶獲取階段，我們對選擇那些申請意願高的人和那些轉換率或批准意願高的人並沒有太大區別。

Ultimately, it's the product of those two things that we're solving for, of course. And so the improvements we make can help, one, both, or ultimately just the product of those things. So obviously, we did have a larger increase in applications relative to where the final originations count ended up. So I think mechanically, you can infer from that change in the likelihood to convert through the funnel. Of course, the conversion rates are lower.

當然，歸根究底，我們要解決的是這兩個因素共同作用的結果。因此，我們所做的改進可以幫助其中之一、兩者兼而有之，或者最終只是這兩件事的產物。顯然，與最終的貸款發放數量相比，我們的申請數量確實大幅增加。所以我認為，從機制上講，你可以從這種變化推斷出轉換率在銷售漏斗中的變化。當然，轉化率會更低。

Now that's in large part, as we already said, because we were knowingly making a choice with our model to be a little bit more conservative on the credit side in earlier parts of the quarter. So relative to that model, of course, we did end up marketing to people who were a little less likely to be approved or a little less likely to convert, but that's not necessarily a chosen strategy.

正如我們之前所說，這在很大程度上是因為我們有意識地選擇在本季早期階段的信貸方面採取更保守的模式。所以相對於該模型而言，當然，我們最終確實向那些不太可能獲得批准或轉換率較低的人群進行了行銷，但這並不一定是我們選擇的策略。

That's helpful, Paul. Thank you. Then my second question, non-prime auto has had elevated delinquencies even before some of the more noticeable news events that have been happening in the space for a couple of months now. Dave, I'm just curious, if we were to see an improvement in that specific category, would that be a needle mover for Upstart's auto originations?

那很有幫助，保羅。謝謝。那麼我的第二個問題是，即使在最近幾個月該領域發生的一些比較引人注目的新聞事件之前，非優質汽車貸款的違約率就已經很高了。Dave，我只是好奇，如果我們看到該特定類別有所改善，這對 Upstart 的汽車貸款發放業務會有顯著影響嗎？

Yes. We've seen very good credit performance in auto. So we do feel good that our models are working that become calibrated. To the extent others are having issues or what have you, maybe some are withdrawing from the market; those can be good things. Maybe it suggests a transition or an inflection point in the market. So for us, it is just really important.

是的。我們看到汽車產業的信貸表現非常出色。所以我們很高興看到我們的模型運作良好，並且經過了校準。如果其他人遇到問題或其他情況，也許有些人正在退出市場；這可能是件好事。這或許預示著市場正在經歷轉型或轉捩點。所以對我們來說，這真的非常重要。

We get calibration, we get more separation. We bring partners on. We keep refining the processes. And I think it's going really well on all fronts there. So I think in 2026, we do feel very optimistic that the auto business as a whole is going to be a contributor. Again, a little disruption or a little noise in the market when you're new like us to it, can be a good thing. It means there's an opportunity when things are shifting.

我們進行校準，就能獲得更大的分離度。我們引入合作夥伴。我們不斷改進流程。我認為各方面進展都非常順利。所以我認為，到 2026 年，我們非常樂觀地認為整個汽車產業將會做出貢獻。再說一遍，對於像我們這樣的新進業者來說，市場上的一點波動或一點噪音，反而可能是件好事。這意味著當情況發生變化時，就會出現機會。

Absolutely. Thanks for the color. They're very helpful.

絕對地。謝謝你提供的色彩。他們非常樂於助人。

Simon Clinch, Rothschild & Company, Redburn.

Simon Clinch，羅斯柴爾德公司，雷德伯恩。

Hi everyone, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just jump back to the first question, really, about the application volume growth that you saw. And just, Sanjay, if you could just remind us what you said about what's implied in the fourth quarter?

大家好，感謝大家回答我的問題。我其實只想回到第一個問題，也就是你看到的申請量成長情況。桑傑，你能不能再提醒我們你之前說過第四節比賽中蘊含著什麼訊息？

Because it sounds like you're assuming that the conservatism in the model is going to continue in the fourth quarter, despite your comments around the UMI actually starting to show some signs of improvement. Is that correct?

因為聽起來你認為模型中的保守主義將在第四季度繼續下去，儘管你對 UMI 的評論實際上已經開始顯示出一些改善的跡象。是這樣嗎？

Hey Simon, I guess I would note that the improvements in UMIs are materializing. As usual, we are conservative and want to watch them bake, and we're already past the month of October.

嘿，西蒙，我想指出的是，UMI 的改進正在逐步實現。像往常一樣，我們比較保守，想看看它們是如何烘烤的，而且現在已經是十月之後了。

So some amount of Q4 was impacted by that UMI rise as well; even though it is now subsiding, we will, of course, follow it with some lag. So, I think that what we described is the model impact in Q3, even though it appears to be abating, will impact Q4 as well.

因此，第四季度也受到了 UMI 上漲的影響；儘管現在 UMI 上漲的勢頭正在減弱，但我們當然也會有一些滯後性地跟進。所以，我認為我們所描述的第三季的模式影響，即使看起來正在減弱，也會對第四季產生影響。

Understood. Okay, thanks. And just as a follow-up, then, when we look at the broad demand for personal loan growth, I mean, the kind of view I've had through most of this year, and I think is consensus view is that there's a lot of demand for just refinancing credit card debt.

明白了。好的，謝謝。那麼，作為後續討論，當我們審視個人貸款成長的整體需求時，我的意思是，我今年大部分時間所持的觀點，而且我認為也是大家的共識，就是對信用卡債務再融資的需求非常大。

Is that still very much the case that's really driving that personal loan demand? Or are we seeing that demand broaden out into other drivers?

這種情況是否仍是推動個人貸款需求的主要因素？或者，我們是否看到這種需求擴展到了其他驅動因素？

I think refinancing debt really continues to be the dominant use case for personal loans. But it is very much the duct tape of credit. It's useful for so many things. And so there's a very long tail of ways that people use personal loans.

我認為，債務再融資仍然是個人貸款的主要用途。但它就像信貸界的萬用膠帶一樣，能起到很大的緩衝作用。它用途非常廣泛。因此，人們使用個人貸款的方式多種多樣。

I think in some cases, because the process is so much simpler and the rates can be quite competitive, that it does compete at some places with secured loans, whether that would be to buy a used car off of a website or what have you, places where you might otherwise, or home improvement, where you don't want to get a HELOC. So I think an unsecured loan, if it's fast, easy, and the rate is competitive, will always be very, very broadly useful to the consumer.

我認為在某些情況下，由於流程非常簡單，利率也很有競爭力，因此它在某些方面確實可以與擔保貸款競爭，無論是從網站上購買二手車，還是進行房屋裝修，而你又不想申請房屋淨值信用額度貸款。所以我認為，如果無擔保貸款快速、簡單且利率有競爭力，那麼它對消費者來說始終會非常非常有用。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler.

派崔克·莫利，派珀·桑德勒。

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I just have one on the balance sheet expansion you saw in the quarter. Just wondering how conversations with some of the potential funding partners of the R&D products have trended recently? And then you touched earlier on the auto, some of the credit issues we've seen recently in auto, and how that's impacted the consumer.

是的，下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。我只有一條關於你在本季看到的資產負債表擴張的資訊。想了解最近與一些潛在的研發產品資助夥伴的洽談進度如何？然後您之前也談到了汽車，以及我們最近在汽車領域看到的一些信貸問題，以及這些問題對消費者的影響。

But has there been any contraction in demand from any of your private credit partners there? And then I understand that they're waiting to see how the portfolios season in some of those R&D products. Is there anything you can share with us there on how they're feeling about that and how those conversations have gone?

但是，你們在當地的任何私人信貸合作夥伴的需求是否有所下降？然後我了解到，他們正在等待觀察這些研發產品在投資組合中的成熟情況。您能否和我們分享一下他們對此的感受以及相關對話的進展？

Patrick, this is Sanjay. Yes, as we said in the remarks, we're very pleased with the direction of all of those conversations. We're obviously having them across a number of different new product areas right now. I think appetite is good. These are large deals, a multiyear time frame, and a large check size.

派崔克，這位是桑傑。是的，正如我們在演講中所說，我們對所有這些對話的方向都非常滿意。目前，我們顯然在許多不同的新產品領域都採用了這些技術。我覺得胃口很好。這些都是大宗交易，涉及多年，而且金額巨大。

So there's a lot of diligence in these conversations and these processes, and they are not perfectly predictable in terms of timeline. But with respect to progress, I think it's all going well. We're excited about all of it. On the auto side, in particular, I don't think there are any concerns about credit, to be honest, at least in the loans that we're producing, I think the credit performance is pretty clear.

因此，這些對話和過程需要投入大量的精力，而且在時間安排上也無法完全預測。但就進展而言，我認為一切都很順利。我們對此感到非常興奮。尤其是在汽車貸款方面，說實話，我認為信貸方面沒有任何問題，至少在我們發放的貸款中，信貸表現非常明確。

As Dave mentioned, there's some broader noise about fraud in the space, and I do believe that has probably lengthened timelines in terms of these processes. Everyone's diligence lists have sort of doubled and tripled in size. And so that's sort of a component. With respect to timing, I don't think it's really changed the motivation or the appetite at all with respect to the specific conversations we're having.

正如戴夫所提到的，這個領域存在一些更廣泛的詐欺行為，我相信這可能會延長這些流程的時間。每個人的盡職調查清單都翻了一番甚至兩番。所以這算是其中一個組成部分。就時間安排而言，我認為這並沒有真正改變我們正在進行的具體對話的動機或意願。

I do believe we now have enough seasoning in our portfolio for people to look at our loan cates and get a really good sense for calibration and for how the credit is performing. So it's really just deal processes, legal processes, getting in place financing, bank relationships, et cetera. So they're heavy lifts, but I think we're very happy with how they're going. We're very excited about the partners we're talking with. And as we said, we hope to have some tangible outcomes for you guys to digest pretty soon.

我相信我們現在的投資組合已經累積了足夠的經驗，人們可以查看我們的貸款類別，並對校準和信貸表現有一個非常好的了解。所以其實就是交易流程、法律流程、融資安排、銀行關係等等。所以這些都是艱鉅的任務，但我認為我們對目前的進展非常滿意。我們對正在洽談的合作夥伴感到非常興奮。正如我們所說，我們希望很快就能為大家帶來一些實際可見的成果，供大家參考。

Okay, that's great color. Thanks for that. That's it for me.

好的，這顏色真棒。謝謝。就這些了。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to start with the conversion rate. You talked a little bit about the conversion rate being impacted by higher UMI. Is that the primary factor? Are there other factors that maybe we aren't seeing or you aren't seeing from the outside inside the models that's driving it?

您好，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想先從轉換率說起。您剛才提到，較高的 UMI 會對轉換率產生影響。這是主要因素嗎？是否存在一些我們或你們從模型外部看不到的其他因素正在驅動這種現象？

And then just on conversion rate, Paul, I think, mentioned --touched on limiting variability in the metric going forward. Can you talk about that some more? And if there's a particular level that should stabilize that? Like is this low 20s percent the right level?

然後，關於轉換率，我想保羅提到了——談到了限制該指標未來波動性的問題。能再詳細談談這方面嗎？如果存在一個特定的水平可以使其穩定下來呢？例如，20%出頭的百分比水準合適嗎？

Yes. Dave, I'll cover the first half of the question, and then Paul can answer the second. No, really, the conservatism in the model is, from our point of view, pretty much the dominant driver of the change in conversion rate. So it comes in the form of a small fraction, fewer people approved, the rates they're approved at being a little bit higher, which means just marginally less likely to take that load, and then sometimes the approved loan size is a little smaller.

是的。戴夫，我來回答問題的前半部分，然後保羅可以回答後半部分。不，實際上，從我們的角度來看，模型中的保守性幾乎是轉換率變化的主要驅動因素。所以，它表現為獲批人數較少，獲批利率略高，這意味著他們承擔這筆貸款的可能性略低，有時獲批的貸款金額也會略小一些。

So that is the basics of a slightly more conservative twist in the model. So again, we don't believe this is anything sustainable. And we do think that we'll get to a model that's a little less responsive, honestly, and maybe overresponsive in this particular case. But no, there's no other factor going on, as you saw the application volume is quite strong.

以上就是模型略微保守一些的基本原理。所以，我們再次強調，我們認為這種做法是不可持續的。我們認為，最終會得到一個反應速度稍慢的模型，說實話，在這個特定情況下，這個模型可能反應速度過快了。但是，沒有其他因素在起作用，正如你所看到的，申請量非常強勁。

Then, on the second part of the question, about the reduction in volatility around conversion rates, and specifically around the macro calibration contribution to conversion rates. So, a few things to understand about this. The first is, as Dave said, one of the single largest contributors, almost every quarter, to the overall conversion rate, which is the state of macro conditions. If borrowers are generally financially healthy, that's going to be helpful.

然後，關於問題的第二部分，即關於轉換率波動性的降低，特別是關於宏觀校準對轉換率的影響。所以，關於這一點，有幾點要了解。正如戴夫所說，第一個因素是宏觀經濟狀況，它幾乎每季都是影響整體轉換率的最大單一因素之一。如果借款人的財務狀況大致良好，那將有所幫助。

If borrowers are struggling, that's going to be unhelpful. And that's just because, of course, approvability is such a big, immutable part of conversion. I want to point out that there is a second component of conversion, which is also not necessarily normative. It's not good or bad, and that's the mix of applicants. We talked a little about this earlier in the question about targeting and what kinds of people come in the door.

如果借款人面臨困境，那麼這樣做反而會適得其反。當然，這是因為，可接受性是轉換率中一個非常重要且不可改變的組成部分。我想指出，轉變還有第二個組成部分，這個組成部分不一定具有規範性。這既不算好也不算壞，這就是應徵者組成。我們之前在討論目標客戶群以及哪些類型的客戶會光顧時，已經稍微談到過這一點。

And there's always some trade-off between propensity to apply and propensity to be approved or converted. And so there's always an optimization going on there. And I think that's neither good nor bad. It's just that we do what's optimal for the business. And so that can cause it to move a little bit.

申請意願和獲批准或轉化意願之間總是存在某種權衡。所以，那裡始終存在著優化過程。我認為這既不算好也不算壞。我們只是做對公司最有利的事。所以這可能會使它稍微移動一下。

But the thing that I was referencing earlier in my prepared remarks about what happened this quarter and the improvements we've made that we expect to be durable and lasting with respect to reducing variance on this metric specifically has to do with managing how the model responds to the latest signals in macro.

但我之前在準備好的發言稿中提到的，關於本季度發生的事情以及我們所做的改進，我們預計這些改進將持久有效，尤其是在降低該指標的方差方面，這與管理模型如何對宏觀經濟的最新信號做出反應有關。

So over the last few years, one of the things that we invested the most heavily in was building our models in such a way that we think they are the fastest, most precise at responding to the latest patterns in borrower repayment, including at the macro level. So if it's like federal employees or if it's like service sector workers or if it's high primness borrowers or low primness borrowers that are being impacted, or it's everybody being impacted by a big macro event, we want our models to be the very fastest at responding and respond as precisely as the data allows.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們投入最多精力的一件事就是建立我們的模型，我們認為這些模型能夠以最快、最精確的方式回應借款人還款的最新模式，包括宏觀層面的模式。因此，無論是聯邦僱員，還是服務業工人，或是高信用等級借款人或低信用等級借款人受到影響，又或是所有人都受到重大宏觀事件的影響，我們都希望我們的模型能夠以最快的速度做出反應，並儘可能精確地根據數據做出反應。

And so we've made a ton of progress towards that. We're very proud of the sort of system we've designed and built. But one of the side effects of that system is that it can be a little overly responsive to the latest changes. And that, in addition to being responsive, there's always some kind of sampling and measurement error.

因此，我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。我們為我們設計和建造的這種系統感到非常自豪。但該系統的一個副作用是，它對最新變化的反應可能過於靈敏。而且，除了反應速度之外，總是存在某種抽樣和測量誤差。

You can think about what we have, of course, a large amount of data, but relative to all people in the US or the whole economy, it's still a relatively small sample. So there's a natural statistical sampling error that comes about from that. And we were doing a lot of work this quarter on understanding how much natural error there is in the match between the sample and the actual levels of calibration.

你可以想想我們擁有什麼，當然，我們擁有大量數據，但相對於美國全體人口或整個經濟體而言，這仍然是一個相對較小的樣本。因此，自然會產生統計抽樣誤差。本季我們做了很多工作，旨在了解樣本與實際校準水平之間的匹配存在多少自然誤差。

Then we devised some techniques to be able to shrink that measurement error by about half, so that we don't have as much what I call unwanted variance in this metric. We really just want the model to respond to real changes as opposed to changes that are just measurement error, and we were able to reduce that measurement error by a very significant amount this quarter, which means that in future periods, we expect that all else equal, we will see less volatility in our conversion rates as affected by macro. So that's good.

然後我們設計了一些技術，可以將測量誤差減少大約一半，這樣我們就不會在這個指標中出現那麼多我稱之為不必要的變異數。我們真正希望的是模型能夠對實際變化做出反應，而不是對測量誤差做出反應。本季我們已經大幅降低了測量誤差，這意味著在未來的時期，我們預期在其他條件不變的情況下，宏觀經濟對轉換率的影響將會減少。那很好。

Good. Got it. Oh, that's super helpful, Paul. Thank you. And Sanjay, And Sanjay, I think you also called out that repayments have increased in the script. Any theories on what is driving that? Are those folks refi loans away from you at a lower rate?

好的。知道了。哦，這太有幫助了，保羅。謝謝。桑傑，桑傑，我想你也提到劇本中還款額增加了。有沒有人能解釋一下造成這種情況的原因？這些人是不是以更低的利率把你的貸款轉售給了別人？

Is that the borrower's financial? He is just improving, so the people are paying off their loans faster. Can you just talk a little bit about what's going on there and just the credit implications of that? Have you seen delinquency rates already move because of that?

那是藉款人的財務狀況嗎？他的病情正在好轉，所以人們償還貸款的速度也更快了。您能簡單談談那裡發生了什麼事，以及這會對信貸產生什麼影響嗎？你是否已經看到違約率因此而改變？

I mean, as we said, it's an empirical observation that repayment speeds have increased. It seems pretty broad. I mean, I think there are a lot of theories as to what's behind it, but we don't know for sure, obviously. It seems to be broader than just one specific use case, meaning I don't think it's just a refi boom. It seems to be happening across both partial and full prepayments, which would imply that it's something broader than just a spike in refinancing.

我的意思是，正如我們所說，還款速度加快是一個經驗觀察結果。範圍似乎相當廣。我的意思是，關於這件事背後的原因有很多說法，但顯然我們無法確定。這似乎不僅限於某個特定的應用場景，也就是說，我認為這不僅僅是再融資熱潮。這種情況似乎在部分和全部提前還款中都有發生，這意味著這不僅僅是再融資激增那麼簡單。

As we said, in the broader scheme of things, this is typically a good thing. When repayments are happening faster, you'd expect that it's on some level of reflection of improving underlying consumer health. You'd expect it to be inversely correlated to defaults over time. So that's what we would like to see.

正如我們所說，從更宏觀的角度來看，這通常是一件好事。還款速度加快，某種程度上反映了消費者基本健康狀況的改善。你可能會認為它與違約率隨時間呈反比關係。這就是我們希望看到的。

But in isolation, with all else constant, repayment happens faster. In the immediate term, it means there's a little bit less interest to be earned on the loans to offset the defaults. And so in the immediate term, your model becomes a little bit more conservative on pricing. It puts a bit more coupon into the loans. So that it compensates for the fact that the duration of the loan has become shorter in a sense.

但單獨來看，在其他條件相同的情況下，還款速度更快。短期來看，這意味著貸款利息收入會略有減少，因此無法彌補違約損失。因此，短期內，你的定價模式會變得更保守一些。它為貸款增加了一些利息。這樣一來，從某種意義上來說，就彌補了貸款期限縮短的事實。

So, there's a bit of an immediate conservatism by the model. But I think in the broader scheme of things, we're pretty excited to see it because it means that on some level, personal fiscal situations are probably a little bit more stable.

所以，這種模式本身就帶有一種保守主義傾向。但我認為從更宏觀的角度來看，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為這意味著在某種程度上，個人財務狀況可能會更加穩定一些。

Got it. Thank you for taking my questions.

知道了。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

雷吉史密斯，摩根大通。

The origination number again. But I guess my question is thinking about -- obviously, there are two components to the conversion rate are what you guys are approving and then the consumer acceptance. I was curious if either had an outsized impact on the conversion rate.

再次輸入原始編號。但我想問的是──顯然，轉換率有兩個組成部分，一是你們認可的，二是消費者的接受度。我很好奇這兩者是否對轉換率產生了過大的影響。

And then I was also curious, as you look at your application flow, much of it, do you have a sense of what is shown, I guess, comparison pricing with other loan products? So, like, I don't know if your loans are showing against LendingClub or SoFi or something like that, if you had a sense of that mix. And the reason I ask both of these questions is that obviously, those two companies had very strong origination trends this last quarter.

然後我也很好奇，當你查看你的申請流程時，你是否能感受到其中顯示的內容，例如與其他貸款產品的比較價格？所以，我不知道你的貸款是顯示在 LendingClub 還是 SoFi 之類的平台上，如果你了解這方面的資訊的話。我之所以問這兩個問題，是因為很明顯，這兩家公司上個季度的貸款發放量都大幅增加。

And I'm just trying to figure out if there was a share shift, if you guys were fighting with one hand, time you back because of your model, like just trying to sort through all that stuff. So anything you can provide there would be helpful. And I have one follow-up.

我只是想弄清楚是否有份額轉移，你們是否因為你們的模式而疲於奔命，例如，只是想弄清楚所有這些事情。所以，如果您能提供任何信息，都將對我們有所幫助。我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. This is Paul. Yes, the conversion changes were predominantly related to our model's level of conservatism, so reflected in approvals primarily, and that tends to be the single most sensitive metric when you flip someone from approved or denied, you have a 100% decline in their relative conversion rate.

是的。這是保羅。是的，轉換率的變化主要與我們模型的保守程度有關，因此主要體現在審批結果上，而審批結果往往是最敏感的指標。當你把某人從已批准變成已拒絕時，他們的相對轉換率就會下降 100%。

So that's the thing that's most sensitive and tends to dominate changes in the metric, and that's what happened in this particular time period.

所以，這是最敏感的因素，也是最容易導致指標變化的因素，而這正是這段特定時期內發生的情況。

And so, I guess you were like declining super prime. I think you talked about there being some sensitivity in that area. Is that the right way to think about it?

所以，我猜你是在拒絕頂級服務吧。我想你剛才提到過，那方面有一些敏感問題。這種思考方式正確嗎？

No, declines don't happen in the super prime area. The rates just move up a little bit for somebody who would be at the end of the spectrum. It's at the other end of the spectrum where there are a lot of declines. So the combination of those two things is what really amounts to a lower conversion.

不，頂級地段的房產不會下跌。對於處於收入水準頂端的人來說，利率只會稍微上漲一些。而在另一個極端，則出現了大量的下滑。因此，這兩個因素結合起來才真正導致了轉換率降低。

And then, if I could ask one more. Just thinking about the HELOC product, and I know it's early days, but how should we think about the, I guess, day one economics or take rate for that product relative to, I guess, your base corporate average?

然後，我還能再問一個問題嗎？我正在考慮房屋淨值信用額度（HELOC）產品，我知道現在還處於早期階段，但我們應該如何看待該產品的首日經濟效益或利率，相對於貴公司的基本平均水平而言呢？

Reggie, let's see. I mean, I think in the past, we've alluded to the fact that take rates will be healthy, but a little bit more modest than in PL, but on much larger loan sizes. So, without quite knowing exact numbers yet, maybe you could think about a take rate that's maybe roughly half the amount, but a loan size that's certainly far more than double.

雷吉，讓我想想。我的意思是，我認為過去我們已經暗示過，貸款利率會比較健康，但會比私募貸款利率略低一些，但貸款規模要大得多。所以，雖然目前還不清楚確切的數字，但或許可以考慮貸款比例約為貸款金額的一半，但貸款規模肯定要遠遠超過兩倍。

And then the last one, I guess, nothing to call out from a credit performance in your book, despite what you guys are seeing in the UMI, just to be clear.

最後一點，我想，儘管你們在 UMI 中看到了一些情況，但在你們看來，信用表現方面沒有什麼值得一提的，這一點需要澄清。

That's correct. We've seen exceptional credit performance, and that's kind of the whole reason for UMI is to make proper adjustments. Also, Reggie, your question that we didn't get to was what others are doing in the market and if they're growing at higher rates at this particular period of time. We obviously don't know what's behind their rates. We don't know what their models look like, how quickly they respond to signals they see.

沒錯。我們已經看到了卓越的信貸表現，而 UMI 的全部意義在於做出適當的調整。另外，雷吉，你還有一個問題我們還來不及討論，那就是市場上其他人都在做什麼，以及他們在這個特定時期是否以更高的速度增長。我們顯然不知道他們的價格背後有什麼原因。我們不知道他們的模型是什麼樣的，也不知道他們對接收到的訊號反應有多快。

But there's no question, if you just look at the nature of lending, that there's always a way to grow. In our view, the model is always right. The model is going to tell us what's proven at what price, and we don't overrule the model. So I think that's probably our way of looking at it.

但毫無疑問，只要看看貸款的本質，就一定有成長的途徑。我們認為，模型總是正確的。模型會告訴我們哪些東西經過驗證，價格是多少，我們不會推翻模型的結論。所以我覺得這大概就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

It sounds like, if I'm hearing you right, that the model may have given you guys a false negative, and like a blip, and things are better than what may have been showing up a couple of months ago in the model.

如果我理解沒錯的話，聽起來像是模型可能給你們給出了一個假陰性結果，就像一個波動，實際情況比幾個月前模型顯示的情況要好。

I mean, we don't know false negatives. It may be something that's helpful to us down the road, that it saw what it saw, and it priced what it priced. So it doesn't necessarily mean it was, in any sense, a false negative. It's a constantly learning system.

我的意思是，我們不知道假陰性結果是什麼。這或許對我們日後有所幫助，因為它讓我們知道它看到了什麼，並給出了它所定的價格。所以這並不一定意味著在任何意義上都是假陰性。這是一個不斷學習的系統。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. I'm (inaudible) that you going to say something.

知道了。好的。不，這很有幫助。我（聽不清楚）以為你要說什麼。

No, nothing to add. Thanks, Reggie.

不，沒什麼要補充的。謝謝你，雷吉。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

詹姆斯‧福塞特，摩根士丹利。

Thank you very much. Just a couple of quick follow-ups for me. Can you give any specificity to what elements of the model kind of you saw weaken and then subsequently improve, or other indications? Just trying to get a sense of where your systems may have been looking versus the broader market.

非常感謝。我還有幾個後續問題。您能否具體說明您觀察到的模型中的哪些要素先是減弱，然後又有所改善，或提供其他跡象？我只是想了解你們的系統與整個市場相比，關注的重點是什麼。

Yes. I think, first of all, we definitely wouldn't describe the model as weakening. As a reminder, our primary performance metric for the model is model separation, and our separation accuracy metrics are our highest ever. The other metric that we track very closely is what we call model calibration, and that's about how the question of credit performance.

是的。首先，我認為我們絕對不會把這種模式描述為減弱。再次提醒大家，我們這個模型的主要效能指標是模型分離度，而我們的分離準確率指標是有史以來最高的。我們密切關注的另一個指標是所謂的模型校準，它與信用表現問題有關。

And as has been said several times, credit performance really has been exceptionally strong for us in this time period. And so what was weaker in this period was the model's ability to approve as many people or convert as many people. And that certainly was a direct result of the increased conservatism that resulted from the model observing a couple of months of elevated risk signals in various pockets of borrowers.

正如之前多次提到的，在此期間，我們的信貸表現確實非常強勁。因此，這段時期該模型的弱點在於它無法像以前那樣有效地批准或轉化那麼多人。這無疑是由於該模型觀察到幾個月來不同借款群體中風險訊號升高，從而導致保守主義加劇的直接結果。

And so that you can think of more of what we call a macro change that the model was responding to. I think with the benefit of hindsight, you could call that a bit of a false negative, I suppose. But of course, I think in the moment, there is a correctness to reacting to the signals that you're seeing. And I think we directionally think that is the right thing to do. That's what we'd like our model to continue doing.

這樣你就可以更思考我們所說的宏觀變化，以及模型所回應的變化。事後看來，這或許可以算是假陰性吧。當然，我認為在當下，對你所看到的訊號做出反應是正確的。我認為從方向上看，我們認為這樣做是正確的。我們希望我們的模型繼續保持這種特性。

I did say that some of that reaction, we think, was due to a certain natural noise in what I call sampling or measurement error. And we did come up with some really good ways to reduce that. And so that noise going forward will be a whole lot less, which is a really, really great technical win for us.

我的確說過，我們認為，其中一些反應是由於我稱之為採樣或測量誤差的某種自然噪音造成的。我們確實想出了一些非常好的方法來減少這種情況。因此，今後噪音將會大大減少，這對我們來說是一個非常非常棒的技術勝利。

But ultimately, there is some level of directional responsiveness that we always want the model to have to the latest changes in what's going on in the world. And if that means that for a month or two, the model gets more conservative, we think that's just the right thing to do.

但歸根究底，我們始終希望模型能夠對世界正在發生的最新變化有一定的方向性反應能力。如果這意味著在接下來的一兩個月裡，模型會變得更加保守，我們認為這樣做是正確的。

Very good, thanks. I appreciate the clarification there. And then, as you look forward to the December quarter and as you're forecasting, how are you thinking about exit rates? You made it pretty clear that you think that there will be a little bit of lagging or continuing effect as we go into the fourth quarter.

很好，謝謝。感謝您的澄清。那麼，在展望 12 月季度並進行預測時，您是如何看待退出率的呢？你已經很明確地表示，你認為進入第四季後，這種影響會有些滯後或持續存在。

But are you expecting that by the time we get to the end of the quarter, you'll be back? And how are you feeling about the right way that we should be thinking about the run rates as we go into 2026?

但你預計到本季末你就會回來嗎？那麼，您認為我們應該如何正確看待2026年的運行率問題呢？

I think we're quite optimistic about the quarter. I mean, I think we have good growth rates. We are taking an appropriate level of conservatism. We have a very, very good pipeline of model improvements that very typically will drive conversion rates up. So in our view, actually, a lot of things are working really well. And it's really important from our perspective to say that the model taking a bit of a conservative breather is a feature, not a bug.

我認為我們對本季的前景相當樂觀。我的意思是，我認為我們的成長率很好。我們採取了適當的保守主義立場。我們有許多非常非常好的模型改進方案，這些方案通常都會提高轉換率。所以在我們看來，實際上很多方面都運作得很好。從我們的角度來看，非常重要的一點是，這種模型採取保守策略是一種特性，而不是缺陷。

And if others aren't doing the same, maybe we'll figure out why over time. But it's the strength of the model, not a weakness, that it's making different decisions or taking a different take on the market. But in the grander scheme of things, we think the consumer's health is good. We think our models are getting better. The new products are breaking out. So we think we're in for a very strong 2026 and feel very good about the fourth quarter as well.

如果其他人沒有這樣做，也許隨著時間的推移，我們會弄清楚原因。但正是這種模式的優勢，而不是劣勢，在於它能夠做出不同的決策或對市場採取不同的看法。但從更宏觀的角度來看，我們認為消費者的健康狀況是好的。我們認為我們的模型正在不斷改進。新產品正嶄露頭角。所以我們認為 2026 年將會非常強勁，對第四季也充滿信心。

That's great. Thank you so much.

那太棒了。太感謝了。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Hi guys, One more question on this subprime, superprime point. I mean, Sanjay, I think you mentioned that the UMI is lower for subprime, higher for some of the higher FICOs.

大家好，關於次貸和超額貸款，我還有一個問題。我的意思是，Sanjay，我想你提到過，次級貸款的 UMI 較低，而一些 FICO 分數較高的貸款的 UMI 較高。

If we zoom way out, we all see and hear a lot of headlines around this K-shaped economy, where super prime is doing quite well and subprime is struggling. So why do you think there's that difference between what the UMI suggests and what we're seeing and hearing more broadly?

如果我們把視角拉遠，就會看到和聽到很多關於這種 K 型經濟的新聞標題，其中超級優質貸款表現相當不錯，而次級貸款則舉步維艱。那麼，你認為 UMI 的建議與我們更廣泛地看到和聽到的情況之間存在差異的原因是什麼？

Hey Rob, it's a good question. I mean, we see directly, obviously, the data we have at our disposal. I think maybe it's important to be precise with labels. So just to be very precise, if you think about the sub-660 population as measured through the traditional credit score lens, that is a population that, in our estimation, is in reasonably, I would say, actually quite good shape with respect to what their same default trends were pre-COVID.

嘿，羅布，問得好。我的意思是，很顯然，我們可以直接看到我們掌握的數據。我認為標籤的精確性或許很重要。所以，為了非常準確地說，如果你考慮一下以傳統信用評分標準衡量的 660 分以下的人群，那麼在我們估計中，就 COVID-19 疫情前的違約趨勢而言，這個人群的狀況相當不錯，甚至可以說相當好。

And so consequently, the UMI is relatively modest. If you go into the primary end of unsecured lending, so now let's talk about the 720 to 750 segment. Those default rates are quite elevated compared to those same default rates pre-COVID, and their UMIs are consequently quite a bit higher. And of course, we would talk about that segment as being a prime segment in the context of unsecured lending.

因此，UMI 相對較小。如果你進入無擔保貸款的初級階段，那麼現在讓我們來談談720到750這個區間。與新冠疫情前的違約率相比，這些違約率相當高，因此其未償還貸款金額也高得多。當然，在無擔保貸款的背景下，我們會把這一部分視為主要部分。

Now, if you go to an even higher FI segment than that, let's talk about the 800-plus segment. That is a population that I think is actually doing very well. They probably don't do a lot of unsecured borrowing, though. So they're not maybe in our label set or in our data set.

現在，如果我們進入比這更高的 FI 級別，我們來談談 800 以上的級別。我認為這個群體實際上發展得非常好。不過，他們可能不會進行很多無擔保貸款。所以它們可能不在我們的標籤集或資料集中。

And so I think you have this U-shaped thing in the economy where at the very low end or maybe the low end of the unsecured lending spectrum, let's call it, 600 to mid-600s, things are very good. And at the very high end, maybe even beyond the unsecured borrowing population, things are quite good, and then there's like a peak in the middle.

所以我認為經濟呈現出一種 U 形走勢，在非常低的水平，或者可能是無擔保貸款範圍的低端，比如說 600 到 600 多，情況非常好。在高端市場，甚至可能超出無擔保借貸人群的範圍，情況都相當不錯，然後在中間市場出現了一個高峰。

And so I think we all use different labels to refer to different parts of that spectrum. whether one part is prime or subprime or super prime or even not even in your data set. But I mean, very specifically, I think that's what we see.

所以我認為我們都使用不同的標籤來指稱這個光譜的不同部分，無論其中一部分是素貸款、次素貸款、超素貸款，甚至可能根本不在你的資料集中。但我的意思是，更具體地說，我認為這就是我們看到的。

Okay, thanks. And then just quickly, a couple of the OpEx lines caught our attention. Engineering and G&A were both lower sequentially, better than what we were all expecting again, better than what was implied by the guidance. Can you give some colors on the drivers there?

好的，謝謝。然後，很快，有幾行營運支出數據引起了我們的注意。工程和一般及行政費用均較上月下降，再次優於我們所有人的預期，也優於業績指引所暗示的情況。你能描述一下那些駕駛者的顏色嗎？

Sure. Yes. I mean, some of it is just like our ongoing fixed expense discipline, which we've been focused on for some time. Some of that is, frankly, mechanical.

當然。是的。我的意思是，其中一些就像我們一直以來所關注的固定支出控制。坦白說，其中一些是機械性的。

As we reduce our outlook as a business for this year, we will reduce our expectation for things like bonus payouts and other comp accruals. And so there's a bit of a mechanical adjustment to a lower outlook that sort of reduces the fixed cost base as well, which is working as designed.

由於我們下調了今年的業務預期，我們將降低對獎金發放和其他薪資福利的預期。因此，為了因應較低的預期，需要進行一些機械調整，這也能降低固定成本基礎，而這正是預期的效果。

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑富瑞集團。

First question is, you talked about the use case for the broader unsecured loans. It looks like your HELOC loans are $55,000 to $60,000 on average. Can you give us the use case there?

第一個問題是，您談到了更廣泛的無擔保貸款的應用案例。看起來您的房屋淨值貸款平均金額在 55,000 美元到 60,000 美元之間。你能給我們舉個例子嗎？

Home equity loans are general-purpose loans. So people tap them for lots of reasons. We don't have a breakout today of what the use case is for ours in particular. But of course, people know the most obvious thing is oftentimes used for home improvement, but quite often can also be used for other types of debt retirement or anything.

房屋淨值貸款屬於一般用途貸款。所以人們出於各種原因會使用它們。我們目前還沒有關於我們具體應用場景的詳細說明。當然，人們都知道最顯而易見的用途通常是房屋裝修，但也經常可以用於償還其他類型的債務或其他用途。

So we think of HELOCs and personal loans as having, in some sense, being trade-offs from each other with respect to a general-purpose set of funds, a little bit different rates, different process. But in some sense, they are substitutes for each other.

因此，我們認為房屋淨值信用額度和個人貸款在某種程度上是相互權衡的，它們都屬於一般用途的資金，只是利率和流程略有不同。但在某種程度上，它們可以互相替代。

And then I know this might sound a little bit like beating a dead horse. But just on this concept of the UMI and the tightening or conservatism and the dichotomy, just from what we've seen, some auto finance companies, some unsecured lenders, subprime, prime. And virtually everybody we've covered this quarter has experienced good volumes, but not only good volumes, but really positive credit trends. You guys talk about this concept of calibration over and over.

我知道這聽起來可能有點像是老生常談。但就 UMI 的概念以及收緊或保守主義和二元對立而言，就我們所看到的，一些汽車金融公司、一些無擔保貸款機構、次級貸款、優質貸款。我們本季報告的幾乎所有公司都經歷了良好的交易量，不僅交易量良好，而且信貸趨勢也非常積極。你們一直在反覆討論校準這個概念。

I guess maybe what I'm seeking is, does your engine not disclose to you what it's seeing that's causing the difference between it and the market? Or are you able to see why it's doing things differently? You mentioned pockets of weakness in certain populations. Again, what population or what demographic was that, or geography or something? I mean, is there something you can point to so we get an understanding of what this black box is doing to some degree?

我想問的是，你的引擎是否不會向你透露它所看到的、導致它與市場之間存在差異的資訊？或者，您能看出為什麼它會採取不同的做法嗎？你提到某些人群中存在一些弱點。那麼，這指的是哪個地區的人口、人口統計、地理位置或其他什麼因素呢？我的意思是，您能否指出一些線索，讓我們對這個黑盒子在某種程度上是如何運作的？

Yes. I think the principal way that you should think about this is that we've intentionally built our system so that it can respond faster than traditional credit metrics would. So in our experience, when other players talk about their credit performance, it's a very backwards-looking metric in the sense that you're typically looking at a somewhat mature cohort of loans and you're measuring something like the actual charge-off rates.

是的。我認為你應該這樣理解：我們特意建立了我們的系統，使其反應速度比傳統的信用指標更快。因此，根據我們的經驗，當其他玩家談論他們的信貸表現時，這是一個非常具有回顧性的指標，因為你通常是在查看一批比較成熟的貸款，並且你在衡量諸如實際的核銷率之類的指標。

If you think about charge-offs in a lot of something like auto, you're often talking about something that could go 180 days since it was first delinquent. And then there are mixed effects, and then there are sort of effects from new populations getting originated and mixed in there.

如果你考慮一下汽車保險之類的壞賬，你會發現，壞賬通常是指從首次逾期到最終結算可能需要 180 天的時間。然後還有一些混合影響，以及新族群的產生和混合所帶來的影響。

And the confounding variables that come with all of those things generally create a pretty substantial obscuring effect to being able to tell what's really going on in credit performance in real time. And so we've built a system that is much better at precisely being able to, in real time, tell you what actually is going on when you control for all of those variables.

所有這些因素所帶來的混雜變數通常會對即時了解信貸表現的真實情況造成相當大的混淆作用。因此，我們建立了一個系統，在控制所有這些變數的情況下，能夠更精確地即時告訴你實際發生了什麼，從而大大提高系統的準確性。

So think of it as a system where holding constant all of the changes in your borrower population across, in our case, the thousands of variables that we use to actually underwrite and understand the risk of loans. When you control for all of those things, you control for the timing, the cohorts, the vintages, then what are you actually seeing?

所以，你可以把它想像成一個系統，在這個系統中，借款人群體的所有變化保持不變，就我們而言，這些變化涉及數千個變量，我們用這些變量來實際承銷和了解貸款風險。當你控制了所有這些因素，例如時間、群體、年份，那麼你實際看到的是什麼？

And how does that interact with any of these thousands of variables so that you can actually see the sort of underlying patterns? And that, I would say, is one possibility that you could see something that's very segment-specific. I don't think that's the story we have in this particular period.

那麼，它如何與成千上萬個變數相互作用，從而讓你真正看到潛在的模式呢？我認為，這可能是某個細分市場特有的現象之一。我不認為這是我們在這個特定時期所了解到的故事。

The other thing that it very simply lets you see is if there is an across-the-board move that would have been either detected three or six months later by traditional credit metrics or wouldn't have been detected at all because it would have gotten obscured by the sort of changing mixes or new originations getting blended in.

它還能讓你很容易地看到，是否存在一種全面性的趨勢，這種趨勢要么會在三到六個月後被傳統的信用指標檢測到，要么根本不會被檢測到，因為它會被不斷變化的組合或新發放的貸款所掩蓋。

And in our case, we're able to see that. Now again, as I said earlier, I think it's possible to be overreactive to sort of that precise, fast-moving signal. And I think we optimized the balance a little bit better through some of our work this particular quarter. But ultimately, our goal is to be faster and more precise than anybody else in the market can be. And so we don't find it necessarily surprising that there are periods of time where others are saying one thing, and we're saying totally the opposite.

就我們而言，我們能夠看到這一點。正如我之前所說，我認為對這種精確、快速變化的訊號反應過度是有可能的。我認為，透過本季度的一些工作，我們更好地優化了這種平衡。但歸根結底，我們的目標是比市場上任何其他公司都更快、更精準。因此，我們並不覺得奇怪，為什麼有時候別人說的是一件事，而我們說的話卻是完全相反的話。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back to Dave Gerardo for any additional or closing remarks.

目前看來沒有其他問題了。我想把會議交還給戴夫·杰拉爾多，讓他作補充或總結發言。

All right. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We're excited to finish the year with a flurry of activity and progress when setting ourselves up for an amazing 2026 for Upstart and our shareholders. Thanks for joining us today.

好的。謝謝大家今天收看我們的節目。我們很高興能在年底前取得一系列的進展和成就，為 Upstart 和我們的股東們在 2026 年取得輝煌成就做好準備。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。